Career Averages - Raquel Pennington
Career Averages - Irene Aldana
Raquel Pennington - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 1 | 92 of 317 | 29% | 112 of 345 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 92 of 260 | 35% | 123 of 308 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 5:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 17 of 60 | 28% | 17 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 25 of 59 | 42% | 25 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 6 of 24 | 25% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 18 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 | |
| 3 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 8 of 34 | 23% | 11 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 35 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 4 | Julianna Peña | 1 | 26 of 84 | 30% | 26 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 16 of 67 | 23% | 18 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 5 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 35 of 115 | 30% | 35 of 115 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 27 of 85 | 31% | 27 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 92 of 317 | 29% | 57 of 277 | 29 of 33 | 6 of 7 | 88 of 308 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 3 |
| Raquel Pennington | 92 of 260 | 35% | 82 of 248 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 90 of 256 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 17 of 60 | 28% | 12 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 17 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 25 of 59 | 42% | 24 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 6 of 24 | 25% | 2 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Julianna Peña | 8 of 34 | 23% | 5 of 31 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 18 of 33 | 54% | 14 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Julianna Peña | 26 of 84 | 30% | 12 of 69 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 80 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 3 |
| Raquel Pennington | 16 of 67 | 23% | 14 of 65 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Julianna Peña | 35 of 115 | 30% | 26 of 105 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 34 of 113 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 27 of 85 | 31% | 24 of 81 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 84 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Raquel Pennington to win by grinding against the cage, using her technical striking and control. He notes Julianna Peña is coming off a two-year layoff and a severe beating, which often leads to poor performances. He believes Pennington's durability and preparation at elevation will be key, and that Peña's chaotic style won't be enough. He also mentions that Pennington's wife Tisha Torres fights earlier, which could affect her mentally if Tisha loses.
Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her recent activity and impressive wins over Macy Chiasson, Ketlen Vieira, and Mayra Bueno Silva. He notes Peña has been inactive for two years and lost to Amanda Nunes. He believes Pennington is the better striker and has strong clinch work, and expects her to win a decision.
Cody picks Pennington due to Peña's two-year layoff, age, and tendency to fatigue. He highlights Pennington's durability, volume striking, and ability to fight five rounds. He expects Pennington to pressure Peña against the cage and win a decision.
Connor picks Pennington, but hesitantly. He thinks Pennington's crafty boxing and durability will allow her to survive Peña's initial onslaught and win rounds in the clinch. He notes that Pennington is comfortable in long clinches and can land knees and front headlock chokes. However, he acknowledges Peña's athleticism and aggression make it a tough fight.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Raquel Pennington, citing her superior boxing and clinch work. He believes Pennington can keep the fight standing and piece up Peña, possibly even choking her out if Peña shoots a sloppy takedown. He is not confident in Peña's evolution since her loss to Amanda Nunes and thinks Pennington's takedown defense will be key.
Daniel Vreeland picks Raquel Pennington. He cites multiple factors: Pennington trains at elevation and has amazing cardio, while Peña has not fought since July 2022 and has a history of poor preparation for elevation. Vreeland notes that Pennington's style is exhausting to fight, as seen in her win over Mayra Bueno Silva. He also points out that Pennington's boxing looked good in her last fight, while Peña's boxing looked terrible with wild swings. He believes Pennington will grind out a win, likely by decision or late TKO.
Jeff Fox picks Raquel Pennington. He agrees with Vreeland on the elevation advantage and Peña's layoff. He notes that Pennington is a tough out, especially if Peña doesn't properly prepare. Fox thinks Pennington will grind out a win, though it may not be pretty.
The host thinks Peña is the overall better fighter and that her wrestling advantage will nullify Pennington's game. He believes people are overlooking Peña due to her loss to Amanda Nunes, but notes Pennington is nowhere near Nunes's level. He expects Peña to lean on her wrestling and grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes.
Paul agrees with Cody, citing Peña's two-year layoff and Pennington's cardio advantage. He notes Pennington's recent procedure as a minor concern but believes her durability and wrestling will carry her to a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Julianna Peña, citing Peña's long layoff (over two years) and inactivity. He notes Pennington trains at altitude and has a cage control game. He acknowledges Peña's win over Nunes but questions her deserving a title shot. He is not confident, calling it a tough pick, but goes with Pennington due to Peña's ring rust.
Zane picks Peña, arguing that Pennington is slow-footed and will get stuck on the cage, allowing Peña to impose her physicality and wrestling. He believes Peña's aggression and strength will overwhelm Pennington, despite Pennington's improved boxing and durability. Zane thinks Peña will win the belt and set up a fight with Kayla Harrison.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 134 of 201 | 66% | 265 of 342 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 2 | 11:28 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 69 of 88 | 78% | 96 of 118 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 3 | 0 | 8:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 26 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 18 of 22 | 81% | 27 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 33 of 52 | 63% | 47 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:04 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 20 of 30 | 66% | 29 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:46 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 27 of 43 | 62% | 52 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 17 of 20 | 85% | 20 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:35 | |
| 4 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 29 of 38 | 76% | 75 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:17 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 8 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:11 | |
| 5 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 34 of 46 | 73% | 65 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 4:19 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 12 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 134 of 201 | 66% | 91 of 156 | 32 of 34 | 11 of 11 | 54 of 110 | 38 of 43 | 42 of 48 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 69 of 88 | 78% | 32 of 44 | 26 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 28 of 45 | 38 of 40 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 11 of 22 | 50% | 7 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 18 of 22 | 81% | 11 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 11 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 33 of 52 | 63% | 29 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 40 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 20 of 30 | 66% | 7 of 14 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 16 | 12 of 13 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 27 of 43 | 62% | 13 of 28 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 23 | 14 of 16 | 4 of 4 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 17 of 20 | 85% | 6 of 8 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Raquel Pennington | 29 of 38 | 76% | 22 of 31 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 19 of 22 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 7 of 8 | 87% | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Raquel Pennington | 34 of 46 | 73% | 20 of 32 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 8 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 22 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 7 of 8 | 87% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bueno Silva (-170), Pennington (+142)
Round 1
The post-Amanda Nunes era at bantamweight truly begins, as eternal contender Pennington and the red-hot Bueno Silva meet to contest the belt vacated last year by the “Lioness,” who in a nice touch by the UFC is in attendance cageside with her family. Canada’s own Jerin Valel draws the referee assignment for this five-round title fight. Both fighters are in orthodox stance to open the fight. Bueno Silva throws a leg kick that glances, and Pennington rushes forward with a flurry of punches, backing the Brazilian up. Bueno Silva touches Pennington’s lead leg with a solid low kick. They engage again, and Pennington grabs hold of Bueno Silva and shoves her to the fence. Bueno Silva clasps her arms as Pennington throws a few short strikes. Bueno Silva breaks the clinch, and lands another hard calf kick. Pennington grabs a single-leg and tries to take Bueno Silva down, but Bueno Silva defends easily. Pennington goes for another quick single moments later, and they move to the fence. Bueno Silva takes Pennington’s back as she drags her to the canvas and quickly locks up a choke. Pennington fights the hands expertly, standing as she does so. Pennington breaks the grip to the point that she feels safe throwing elbow strikes to the thigh of Bueno Silva. Bueno Silva gives up on the choke and briefly loses back control as Pennington scrapes her against the chain-link, but hops back on her back and pulls her to a sitting position against the fence. She throws strikes from seated back control until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva
Round 2
Pennington comes forward with a triple jab, backing Bueno Silva up and dodging the first calf kick that comes her way. Bueno Silva throws another calf kick, backing Pennington to the fence as she does so, then uses underhooks to keep her there. Pennington throws knee up the middle, then another, and switches her hooks to reverse Bueno Silva against the fence. She lets Bueno Silva off the fence and tags her with three punches as she does so. Bueno Silva comes back with a single counter, but it’s a solid one. Bueno Silva clinches and puts Pennington back on the fence. They exchange knee strikes in close quarters. Bueno Silva tags Pennington with a pair of uppercuts to the body, and Pennington comes back across the top with a big punch to the head that rocks her. They get a little space and Pennington hits her with two more good shots to the head. Bueno Silva is hurt and goes staggering back to the fence. Pennington gives chase but ends up clinching, without enough space to follow up with more big shots. They disengage and fight a running battle all the way back across the cage, where Bueno Silva takes Pennington’s back once again and tries for the rear-naked choke. Pennington calmly defends, but again she is standing with Bueno Silva in back control. Bueno Silva loses the choke moments before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Round 3
Pennington scores first with a long overhand right. Bueno Silva lands two good right low kicks in succession. Pennington clinches and runs Bueno Silva to the fence, where the Brazilian promptly reverses her. Bueno Silva pushes her into the chain-link, looking to move to her back, but Pennington defends well and throws a knee to the body. Pennington takes the outside position. Bueno Silva uses a whizzer kick to toss Pennington to the ground, but Pennington kicks her off and sweeps to stand. Halfway through the round it’s Pennington driving Bueno Silva into the cage. Bueno Silva throws a knee to the body then reverses Pennington into the fence. The two would-be champs spend several long moments exchanging sporadic knees on the inside. Bueno Silva grabs a front headlock and briefly threatens, but Pennington escapes and tosses her to the canvas, ending up on top in half guard with an arm around the neck. Pennington gets up and Bueno Silva stays on the ground, suddenly looking very tired. She seems to want Pennington to go back into her guard, but Pennington is having none of it and Valel waves her up. The round expires a few moments later.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Round 4
Pennington steps right in a smashes Bueno Silva with a right overhand. She throws another pair of punches as Bueno Silva comes forward, looking for the clinch. Pennington quickly reverses her against the cage, but elects to stay there, throwing short punches—rather than disengage as her corner is loudly imploring her to do. Bueno Silva moves to try and take Pennington’s back against the cage. Pennington defends for a moment, but Bueno Silva persists and gets the position, then slaps on another rear-naked choke. It isn’t completely under the chin, and Pennington is turning red as she fights it off. She shrugs Bueno Silva partway off her back, but Bueno Silva continues to threaten with the choke even from the side. Finally, Pennington spins all the way into Bueno Silva’s guard at the base of the fence. She throws strikes as Bueno Silva throws her legs up for a possible triangle or armbar, but none of them are enough to really threaten, and Pennington keeps pouring on the punches and hammerfists. At the 30-second mark, Pennington postures up and comes down with a big hammerfist that draws a reaction from the Brazilian. The round ends a moment later, and Bueno Silva is slow to get up.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Round 5
Pennington is first off the blocks with a left and right hook. Bueno Silva swings back, advancing as she does so. Pennington seems motivated to deny her the clinch, especially against the cage, but Bueno Silva manages to get her there anyway. Bueno Silva tries for some kind of body lock, but bails on it and goes for a kneebar on her way down. There’s nothing doing there, and Pennington lands on top, sliding to mount as she locks up an arm-triangle choke. Bueno Silva is surviving just fine, as Pennington is in complete control of the position but apparently can’t get enough torque to finish the choke. Pennington moves out to one side without completely surrendering the mount, and Bueno Silva is slowly turning away from her. A minute and a half to go, and Pennington gives up the choke, settling in Bueno Silva’s half guard. Pennington pours on the punches as Bueno Silva clings to her, eyes closed, just hanging on. Valel looks on and Pennington stands out of guard, throwing kicks to the legs of her supine foe. Pennington dives in with a couple of big, but glancing punches right before the final horn. Barring a historically horrible judging gaffe, “Rocky” should be your new UFC women's bantamweight champion in about two minutes here.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Pennington (49-45 Pennington)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington (49-46 Pennington)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington (49-46 Pennington)
The Official Result
Raquel Pennington def. Mayra Bueno Silva via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
Angelo picks Pennington, citing her experience, pressure, and control style. He acknowledges Bueno Silva's power and submissions but believes Pennington's grit and high-level experience will prevail. He has a quarter unit on Pennington at plus 135 and will monitor for better value. He notes the potential distraction of Pennington's eight-month-old baby.
Big Brady picks Silva, noting her submission skills are top-notch. He expects the fight to hit the mat at some point, where Silva will have the advantage. He thinks the striking will be close but Silva's forward pressure and durability will be key. He predicts a submission win for Silva.
Cody picks Bueno Silva but is not confident, citing her submission threat and the fact that Pennington fights in the clinch where Silva caught Holly Holm. However, he worries about Silva's cardio and the lack of her ADHD medication (ritalinic acid) in a five-round fight. He sees Pennington as a live underdog but ultimately goes with Silva.
Vreeland picks Bueno Silva, analyzing her striking success against Holly Holm. He notes that Silva found the range against Holm and landed impactful strikes. He contrasts Pennington's lack of range kicks and long fighting style, which should allow Silva to close distance. Vreeland also mentions Silva's submission threat if Pennington shoots takedowns. He sees Silva overwhelming Pennington on the feet.
Daniel Vreeland picks Mayra Bueno Silva to become the new bantamweight champion. He highlights her heavy power, devastating leg kicks, and finishing instinct, including the ninja choke. He expects her calf kicks to be effective against Pennington's stationary boxing style, and believes she will land the harder shots throughout the fight, possibly finishing or winning a decision.
Fox picks Bueno Silva as the better fighter, but acknowledges Pennington's tendency to win. He notes Pennington's year-long layoff as a concern. Fox doesn't provide detailed technical analysis but defers to Silva's overall skill advantage.
This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host only covers the main event, co-main event (Weili Zhang vs Tatiana Suarez), and other fights, but not Pennington vs Bueno Silva.
I'm leaning on Bueno Silva to win inside the distance, likely by submission. Pennington could be the busier fighter and win rounds with volume, but Bueno Silva has a finish-heavy style that can break and frustrate Pennington. I think Bueno Silva lands a shot that opens up a clinch and sub opportunity. I'm not taking the moneyline at -155; I prefer the inside distance prop. I'd be very surprised if Pennington finishes Bueno Silva.
Paul picks Pennington, emphasizing her experience in five-round fights, superior cardio, and wrestling. He notes Bueno Silva's submission threat but believes Pennington can avoid submissions and take over in later rounds. He also jokes about Silva missing her ADHD medication affecting her focus.
The MMA Guru picks Mayra Bueno Silva, citing her higher finishing potential and submission ability. He notes her win over Holly Holm (though overturned) and her competitive fight with Manon Fiorot. He believes she will submit Pennington with a knee bar in round two.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 64 of 152 | 42% | 138 of 230 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 81 of 159 | 50% | 104 of 184 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 23 of 71 | 32% | 29 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 27 of 58 | 46% | 27 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 42 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 29 of 61 | 47% | 32 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 20 of 30 | 66% | 67 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 25 of 40 | 62% | 45 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 64 of 152 | 42% | 41 of 122 | 5 of 10 | 18 of 20 | 56 of 143 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 81 of 159 | 50% | 37 of 111 | 32 of 35 | 12 of 13 | 59 of 134 | 22 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 23 of 71 | 32% | 15 of 58 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 69 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 27 of 58 | 46% | 14 of 44 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 24 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 21 of 51 | 41% | 10 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 19 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 29 of 61 | 47% | 14 of 43 | 11 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 20 of 30 | 66% | 16 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 25 of 40 | 62% | 9 of 24 | 12 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 29 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-115), Pennington (-105)
Round 1
In terms of pure rankings, no fight on the billing is more relevant than this fight that is not on the marquee. This women’s bantamweight pairing, one pitting the second-ranked Vieira (13-2, 7-2 UFC) against the no. 5 Pennington (14-8, 11-5 UFC), could have immediate title implications depending on how it plays out. One woman will take her first defeat in quite some time, and referee Chris Tognoni will be the first to know who that is. The ladies sportingly clap hands ahead of their important fight, and they are jittery and not ready to engage. At the 20-second mark, Pennington leaps forward with a superwoman punch, and Vieira backs her off with a solid right hand in response. Vieira walks through a low kick on the inside and a jab to the body so that she can swing a swatting left hook, but this misses the mark. The Brazilian whiffs on a big right as well, prompting Pennington to charge in with a stream of jabs. Vieira parries two looping strikes to catch “Rocky” with a short right hand on the way in. Pennington appears no worse for wear as she goes for another kick on the inside of the knee, and she ducks back when a big left hook whizzes past her face. Vieira grabs a charging Pennington to knee her right in the chest, and she sends her backpedaling with a clean right hand across the bow. Pennington slams her shin on the low calf of her opponent, and she fakes a second to draw an exaggerated reaction out of the Brazilian. Vieira snipes with a left hand to open a cut on the top of Pennington’s forehead, and she chains together a combination of punches and a low kick to keep Pennington guessing. Vieira absorbs a kick to the ribs as she closes the distance, and she reaches her foe with a left hook in a short salvo. Vieira paws out a trio of low kicks before lunging with a straight punch to the body, and Pennington answers with a similar punch before swinging a left hand at her. Vieira lands at the end of her left hook, and another superwoman punch from Pennington allows her to close the distance and tie the Brazilian up to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 2
The bantamweight contenders touch hands before re-engaging, and engage they do almost immediately, when Pennington coming out firing. Vieira answers with a counter left hook, as she measures this strike to draw ever closer to the mark. Vieira takes one on the chin to throw back two, and she has a handful of punches ricochet off the guard. Pennington connects with a heavy one-two, and Vieira blinks it out but cannot keep an advancing Pennington off of her. “Rocky” grabs hold of Vieira from behind, where she considers elevating the Brazilian to drop her on the mat, or otherwise force Vieira to carry her body weight. Vieira gets warned for bragging the fence, and she turns back around in the clinch and belts Pennington in the face with a stern elbow. Vieira opens up with a one-two, and she starts slugging it out with her opponent and gets marked up as well. The right side of Pennington’s face is growingly covered in blood, while Vieira’s mouth is also turning a brilliant shade of scarlet. Vieira spins Pennington around, and a knee from the former title challenger slams square into Vieira’s groin. Tognoni recognizes the foul as Vieira appears in clear pain, and the action is paused for about 45 seconds until they get back to it. Pennington starts off the initial aggressor, slinging a high kick and a few lancing punches while Vieira throws back in volume. Vieira gets off with a right hand, and Pennington replies in kind to snap the head back. Pennington nails her with another right over the top before latching on to the clinch and clubbing the body with a pair of knees. Pennington checks the clock when pinned to the fence – it reads about 58 seconds – and she tries with all her might to break off. When she cannot get out of the clinch, she settles for knee after unanswered knee to the chest and midsection. Vieira is sticking to her tightly without striking back, and Pennington remains the busier of the two with body shots. Vieira slithers around to the back with seconds to spare, and there is nothing to be had before the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Round 3
The ladies double touch hands, hug and then bump fists again to start the last round. They immediately go for broke, with Pennington not wasting any time engaging and throwing hands. Pennington cracks Vieira with a superwoman punch, and Vieira answers with several speedy punches in response. The two close the distance and end up tied up, with Vieira pushing the former title challenger against the wall. Pennington grinds her elbow on the chin as Vieira stays close enough to not take many knees as she did the end of the last round. When Pennington sets up a Thai plum, Vieira disengages. Vieira resets and dings Pennington with a right hand, stringing together a few strikes before Pennington closes in to grab hold of her. They trade short single punches up close, and both try to attempt a throw or toss to change position. When neither succeed, Vieira spins her around in the tie-up, and Pennington looks for a Thai clinch again. This time, Pennington is able to score a knee before they separate, and Vieira leaps forward suddenly with a crushing elbow. Pennington takes it cleanly and tries to escape, so Vieira follows her and nails her with another before snagging here again up close. Vieira targets elbows, and Pennington rips the body with a knee. When in the clinch, Vieira slips around to nearly take the back, and she knees the thigh while Pennington punches her from over her own shoulder. Vieira looks to elevate Pennington, but she cannot throw her as Pennington’s base is too solid. Vieira stays clung to her adversary right to the bitter end, and the judges have their hands full with this one.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
The Official Result
Raquel Pennington def. Ketlen Vieira via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Vieira, citing her size, power, and Judo. He thinks she will be busier in the clinch and work off the cage, making Pennington look boring. He acknowledges Pennington's toughness but believes Vieira's recent win over Holly Holm and physical advantages will secure a decision. He is willing to bet on her.
Big Brady picks Ketlen Vieira but is not confident, calling it his least favorite fight on the card. He sees Vieira having a grappling advantage if she gets on top, but notes she often does nothing with control time, as seen in fights against Yana Kunitskaya and Holly Holm. He also acknowledges Pennington's clinch work and ability to push Vieira against the cage. He predicts a close, ugly decision that judges might get wrong, and he will not bet on the fight.
Cody leans slightly towards Pennington, noting her striking output against Aspen Ladd and potential bulldog choke. He sees it as a close fight and prefers to bet it live after seeing who is stronger in the clinch.
Connor picks Vieira because she is physically stronger and more powerful, and has a wrestling advantage that can neutralize Pennington's boxing. He notes that Pennington often gets taken down at least once per fight, and Vieira's clinch work and top control can sway judges. Connor also mentions that Vieira showed renewed confidence against Holly Holm, throwing off her back foot and in clinches.
Connor also picks Vieira, agreeing that she has improved and has more options. He notes that Pennington has power and patience, which could create opportunities, but Vieira's grappling and overall game should prevail. Connor mentions that Pennington has made herself interesting but Vieira is the better fighter.
Jacob picks Pennington, calling Vieira overrated and Pennington underrated. He argues Pennington's recent wins are more impressive and she is the better overall fighter. He notes Vieira's split decision losses and that Pennington's clinch control and striking looked sharp. He is confident enough to bet $100 against Angelo.
Paul leans towards Vieira, citing her size and recent five-round experience. He expects a clinch-heavy fight and thinks Vieira may get the better of it, but admits he has low confidence and sees it as a pass or live-bet situation.
Zane picks Pennington because she has steadily improved her boxing and showed excellent counter-punching against Aspen Ladd. He notes that Pennington is a solid defensive wrestler who doesn't give up much even when taken down, and that she makes good decisions as the fight goes on. Zane also points out that Vieira's striking has become overly cautious since her knockout loss, relying on clinch work rather than developing her forward striking.
Zane picks Vieira, noting that she has shown improvements in tactical depth and technique over her last few fights. He believes she has too many options and has gotten better at connecting phases of her game, defense, and counterpunching. However, he worries about her last fight against Melissa Gatto where she couldn't finish and got reversed. He still thinks she should be a lock to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 65 of 160 | 40% | 102 of 199 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:56 |
| Aspen Ladd | 0 | 114 of 195 | 58% | 136 of 218 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 20 of 60 | 33% | 25 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aspen Ladd | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 40 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 26 of 68 | 38% | 28 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aspen Ladd | 0 | 49 of 82 | 59% | 52 of 85 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 49 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:56 |
| Aspen Ladd | 0 | 25 of 39 | 64% | 44 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 65 of 160 | 40% | 37 of 118 | 21 of 34 | 7 of 8 | 52 of 145 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Aspen Ladd | 114 of 195 | 58% | 57 of 133 | 47 of 52 | 10 of 10 | 89 of 166 | 25 of 29 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 20 of 60 | 33% | 13 of 48 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aspen Ladd | 40 of 74 | 54% | 24 of 56 | 12 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 36 of 70 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 26 of 68 | 38% | 19 of 53 | 2 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 63 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Aspen Ladd | 49 of 82 | 59% | 29 of 60 | 20 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 42 of 74 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 19 of 32 | 59% | 5 of 17 | 13 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 22 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Aspen Ladd | 25 of 39 | 64% | 4 of 17 | 15 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 11 of 22 | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Aspen Ladd, citing her toughness and 'dog' mentality. He thinks Pennington's style of cage pressure and control won't work against Ladd's refusal to be bullied. He notes Ladd's power and wrestling, and says this is a no-bet situation.
Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington to win by decision. He notes Pennington has solid takedown defense and should keep the fight on the feet, where she can outstrike Ladd. Ladd looked terrible in her last fight against Norma Dumont, landing only 3 strikes in the first round. Brady thinks Ladd's path to victory is takedowns, but Pennington is strong and physical enough to stuff them.
Cody also leans Ladd, but emphasizes the weight cut risk. He notes Pennington's recent wins are over low-level opponents and that she has been taken down by her last three foes. Cody thinks Ladd's top game will be decisive if she makes weight. He plans to watch weigh-ins before betting, and is interested in the under if Ladd looks drained.
Levi sees Raquel Pennington as the more well-rounded fighter with takedowns and a grinding style. He worries about Aspen Ladd's top pressure and ground-and-pound, but thinks Pennington's takedown defense and experience against top competition (including Amanda Nunes) will allow her to mix strikes and takedowns. He expects a decision win for Pennington, though he is not rushing to bet at -190.
I think we'll see a better version of Aspen Ladd than last time. She should be able to push Pennington against the cage, drag her to the floor, and have success with ground and pound. Pennington struggles when fights hit the mat. Ladd will grind out a decision victory.
Paul leans towards Ladd as an underdog but conditions it on her making weight. He notes Pennington's takedown defense is weak and that Ladd has ferocious ground and pound. Paul thinks if Ladd gets top position, she'll smash Pennington. He also considers the under 2.5 rounds if Ladd looks bad at weigh-ins. He calls Ladd his first underdog pick of the card.
The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington, criticizing Aspen Ladd's lack of grit and poor performance in her last fight. He expects Pennington to push the pace and win a 30-27 decision, noting that Ladd has changed her style since being KO'd and no longer leads the dance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 45 of 79 | 56% | 61 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 26 of 86 | 30% | 64 of 126 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 24 of 38 | 63% | 37 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 15 of 48 | 31% | 48 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 11 of 38 | 28% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 45 of 79 | 56% | 22 of 48 | 20 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 38 of 71 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Macy Chiasson | 26 of 86 | 30% | 16 of 65 | 9 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 22 of 79 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 24 of 38 | 63% | 10 of 21 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Macy Chiasson | 15 of 48 | 31% | 11 of 39 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 21 of 41 | 51% | 12 of 27 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Macy Chiasson | 11 of 38 | 28% | 5 of 26 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Raquel Pennington but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes that Pennington is a grinder who uses cage control and pressure, but that Macy Chiasson uses her reach well and has good Muay Thai. He believes the small cage at the Apex may limit Chiasson's ability to circle, but still sees Chiasson as a live underdog. Angelo expects a boring win for Pennington but not a cakewalk.
Big Brady initially liked Pennington but changed his pick after learning the fight is at 145 lbs, which he believes massively favors Chiasson. He notes Chiasson's size, youth, and experience at featherweight, and expects her to use her height and reach to win a close decision. He mentions Pennington's takedown ability but thinks the weight class change is decisive.
Cody likes Chiasson as a dog, noting the fight is at 145 lbs which favors her. He points out that Pennington has looked disinterested since her title fight and has poor striking. Chiasson is bigger, stronger, and has better striking at range and in the clinch. Cody thinks Chiasson can win by outworking Pennington.
Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Raquel Pennington. He praises Pennington's grit, durability, and experience, noting she only loses to former champions. However, he points out that many of Pennington's wins are split decisions, making it a close fight. Levi is concerned about Chiasson's size and reach advantage at 145, and wonders if Pennington's clinch game will be less effective against a taller opponent. He thinks Chiasson could win if she has improved, but ultimately picks Pennington to edge out a decision.
Jacob picks Macy Chiasson, believing the UFC is setting her up to be a contender. He thinks the fight comes down to clinch work, and that Chiasson is bigger, more physical, and nastier than Pennington at this point. He expects Chiasson to win a dirty decision, possibly with a finish. Jacob notes that Chiasson has never been finished and has finishing ability herself.
The host picks Pennington by decision, citing her well-rounded game and experience. He notes that Chiasson relies on being physical and bullying, but if she can't do that, she succumbs. He expects Pennington to pull away in the later rounds and win a 15-minute fight. He likes the decision prop at +115.
Paul agrees with Chiasson, citing the reach advantage and the weight class change. He notes Pennington isn't big for 135, let alone 145, and Chiasson doesn't have to cut much weight. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and leans Chiasson.
The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Macy Chiasson, citing Pennington's physical strength and ability to bully Chiasson against the cage. He notes Pennington has good wins over Pannie Kianzad, Marion Reneau, and Irene Aldana. He was not impressed by Chiasson's performance against Reneau. He thinks Pennington is too strong and will control the fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 50 of 98 | 51% | 85 of 144 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:34 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 48 of 79 | 60% | 98 of 144 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 6:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 21 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:24 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 25 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 21 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 34 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 28 of 62 | 45% | 43 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 0 | 28 of 49 | 57% | 39 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 50 of 98 | 51% | 26 of 68 | 20 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 50 | 37 of 48 | 0 of 0 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 48 of 79 | 60% | 26 of 56 | 17 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 49 | 23 of 28 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 12 of 19 | 63% | 3 of 7 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 3 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 8 of 12 | 66% | 3 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 10 of 17 | 58% | 7 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 12 of 18 | 66% | 7 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 28 of 62 | 45% | 16 of 47 | 9 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 37 | 19 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
| Pannie Kianzad | 28 of 49 | 57% | 16 of 36 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 33 | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Raquel Pennington because she will march forward, hold Pannie against the cage, and neutralize her boxing. He notes that Pennington's losses are to current/former champions and that she is a boring but effective grappler. He likes the -132 odds and thinks they will move. He is confident Pennington stifles Pannie's combinations.
Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her superior level of competition and ability to grind against the cage. He notes Kianzad was outstruck by Alexis Davis and has shown vulnerability to wrestling. He predicts a decision win for Pennington, though he wishes the price were better and likely won't bet it.
Cody picks Kianzad as a slight underdog, citing her better striking and improved takedown defense. He notes that Pennington is a grinder but has looked mentally off in recent fights. Cody believes Kianzad can keep the fight at range and outwork Pennington.
Daniel Levi leans with Raquel Pennington. He calls Kianzad an overachiever and thinks Pennington's record is misleading because she has fought the best. He sees similar boxing-centric styles but gives the edge to Pennington, expecting a close decision. He notes he usually likes to dog close decisions but here he leans with Pennington.
Preet picks Pennington because she is good at everything and has better cardio and forward pressure. He thinks Kianzad is a better technical striker but Pennington will nullify her with clinch work and takedowns. He expects a decision and likes the fight goes to decision at +125.
Paul agrees with taking Kianzad at plus money, noting that Pennington's style could lead to a close decision. He thinks Kianzad's volume and range striking give her an edge, but acknowledges the smaller cage may favor Pennington's grinding.
The MMA Guru picks Pannie Kianzad over Raquel Pennington, praising Kianzad's fundamentals, dirty boxing, and recent form. He questions Pennington's motivation and activity, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision for Kianzad.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 107 of 154 | 69% | 118 of 165 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 5:29 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 46 of 117 | 39% | 81 of 154 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 25 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 24 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 37 of 50 | 74% | 41 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:15 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 35 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 47 of 68 | 69% | 52 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 22 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 107 of 154 | 69% | 54 of 97 | 46 of 50 | 7 of 7 | 51 of 93 | 52 of 56 | 4 of 5 |
| Marion Reneau | 46 of 117 | 39% | 20 of 85 | 20 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 84 | 24 of 33 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 23 of 36 | 63% | 9 of 22 | 12 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Marion Reneau | 17 of 52 | 32% | 8 of 39 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 37 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 37 of 50 | 74% | 15 of 27 | 20 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 24 | 19 of 21 | 4 of 5 |
| Marion Reneau | 13 of 29 | 44% | 5 of 21 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 15 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 47 of 68 | 69% | 30 of 48 | 14 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 46 | 21 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
| Marion Reneau | 16 of 36 | 44% | 7 of 25 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 32 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington by decision, believing she is the better striker and that the fight will stay on the feet. He notes Pennington's superior competition and Reneau's age (42). He thinks Reneau's only path to victory is a submission, which he doesn't see happening. He is pretty confident and thinks the line could be wider.
Daniel Levi picks Marion Reneau as an underdog, arguing that the line should be closer to a pick 'em. He notes that Raquel Pennington is average and doesn't land many takedowns, while Reneau has decent hands and can win a close decision. Levi believes Reneau has a chance to win a split decision, especially on her 43rd birthday.
Pennington is boring but has experience against better opponents. Reneau is 42 years old and coming off a loss to Jessica Eye, which indicates she is past her prime. Pennington will get the job done, though it may be a dull fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 0 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 81 of 129 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 7:16 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 38 of 78 | 48% | 55 of 95 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 26 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 32 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 28 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 30 of 62 | 48% | 12 of 33 | 9 of 18 | 9 of 11 | 20 of 50 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 38 of 78 | 48% | 9 of 43 | 27 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 46 | 28 of 32 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 6 of 12 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 5 of 14 | 35% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 9 of 17 | 52% | 2 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 9 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 19 of 27 | 70% | 3 of 10 | 15 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 9 | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 15 of 33 | 45% | 8 of 20 | 2 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 14 of 37 | 37% | 5 of 25 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 26 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Daniel picks Raquel Pennington to edge out a close decision. He notes that Pennington is the more active fighter moving forward and that Holm has gone 4-5 since their first fight while Pennington is 5-2. He also mentions that Pennington is younger at 31 vs Holm pushing 40.
The host is confident in Holly Holm, having already placed 2.5 units at -122. He believes Holm won the first fight easily and that her counter-striking, fight IQ, and power left head kick will be too much for Pennington. He argues that Holm is better at getting off the cage and landing damaging shots, while Pennington's forward movement plays into Holm's game. He dismisses concerns about Holm's recent record, noting she lost to elite fighters, and sees Pennington as a step below.
The host picks Raquel Pennington, citing her thickness and ability to take damage, as seen in her performance against Amanda Nunes. He criticizes Holly Holm's damage-taking ability and age (38), suggesting her prime is over. He predicts Pennington wins by decision.
Irene Aldana - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norma Dumont | 0 | 69 of 183 | 37% | 69 of 183 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 159 of 309 | 51% | 159 of 309 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norma Dumont | 0 | 12 of 46 | 26% | 12 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 32 of 75 | 42% | 32 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Norma Dumont | 0 | 25 of 59 | 42% | 25 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 58 of 114 | 50% | 58 of 114 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Norma Dumont | 0 | 32 of 78 | 41% | 32 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 69 of 120 | 57% | 69 of 120 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norma Dumont | 69 of 183 | 37% | 47 of 145 | 12 of 23 | 10 of 15 | 67 of 180 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Irene Aldana | 159 of 309 | 51% | 89 of 229 | 34 of 42 | 36 of 38 | 156 of 305 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norma Dumont | 12 of 46 | 26% | 7 of 30 | 1 of 9 | 4 of 7 | 12 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Irene Aldana | 32 of 75 | 42% | 14 of 54 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 16 | 31 of 74 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Norma Dumont | 25 of 59 | 42% | 16 of 46 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 7 | 25 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Irene Aldana | 58 of 114 | 50% | 28 of 80 | 16 of 20 | 14 of 14 | 58 of 114 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Norma Dumont | 32 of 78 | 41% | 24 of 69 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Irene Aldana | 69 of 120 | 57% | 47 of 95 | 14 of 17 | 8 of 8 | 67 of 117 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aldana (-112), Dumont (-108)
Round 1
Wrapping the abbreviated prelims is a potential no. 1 contender bout at 135 pounds. Former title challenger Aldana (15-7, 8-5 UFC) washed the bad taste out of a one-sided loss to Amanda Nunes out of her mouth with buckets of blood courtesy of her titanic tussle with Karol Rosa in December. With the division starved for contenders, the Lobo Gym fighter might get another crack at gold if she gets past Dumont (11-2, 7-2 UFC). Fresh out of the 145-pound division, Dumont has shown she can successfully make weight, making her a viable contender as well. A clap of hands seals the cage that also contains referee Herb Dean. Aldana reaches out with a low kick but is out of range, and Dumont takes a few steps forward and lands her own. Dumont connects with another kick, and she just misses with a jab. Aldana jabs her back, and she checks a leg kick as marching forward. Dumont scores a solid low kick, and her one-two bounces harmlessly off the raised guard. Aldana catches her opponent with a left hook, and Dumont shakes her head at it. Dumont sneaks out a jab, with Aldana keeping her own jab active. Aldana jabs to the head and chest, and she walks through low kicks to get in range as Dumont is constantly fighting off her back foot. Dumont tries to force out three punches, but Aldana parries all three and chips away with the front leg. Aldana flashes out a jab and is countered with a right over the top, and she takes a hard kick to the side of her knee. Dumont overswings on power strikes, and Aldana remains in her face, composed and largely utilizing straight strikes while she maintains a grin. Aldana lands again and makes Dumont smile, and then clips her with a right hook that makes the smile disappear. Dumont gets in a clean low kick, and she lands at the end of a right hand and a left to drive Aldana back briefly. The Mexican continues stalking Dumont around, and she connects with a left hand and then pushes Aldana away with a front kick. Aldana reaches her opponent with a left hook and a right, and Dumont grins and swings back harder. Aldana leans back to dodge a high kick and jabs to the body, and she plods forward to deliver a left hook on the jaw. Dumont crashes forward to connect with a right hand, and she waves her hand at her to signal she landed cleanly. Aldana hits air with a left hook, and Dumont stays on her bike potshotting her freely. Aldana misses the mark a few times before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Round 2
Gloves are touched to start the second round, and Aldana leads off well with a sharp left hook. Dumont smacks her with a front-leg low kick, and she is met with a right hand and quick left. Dumont tries to box her back, but Aldana beats her to the punch and kicks her in the posterior. Dumont peppers the front leg with kicks and uses a long jab to keep Aldana away, and Aldana dips to go after a right to the body and misses with a big left up top. Aldana whiffs on another left hook, and she lets Dumont walk into an overhand right. Aldana sticks out a jab and a low kick, and her guard protects her from two punches but not the two kicks that follow. They land punches at the same time, and Dumont jabs her back to the ribs and kicks the same spot. Aldana eats a left hand and swings back up top, and she gets in a left hook and tries to reach her with a right that comes up short. Both ladies are grinning as they trade punches, having a blast in the cage as they smack one another in the chops. Aldana stings Dumont with a right and a left, and Dumont races at her swinging for the bleachers. Aldana largely blocks the worst of the blows, but a few manage to sneak in. Aldana walks face-first into a left hand, and she continues chasing Dumont around and boops her with a jab. Aldana scores as left and is met with a counter right, and Dumont kicks her front leg for good measure. Dumont skirts away from a left hook to go after the body, and she ducks a looping punch to level change. Aldana pushes her away before a takedown can materialize, and she dings her foe with a long right hand. Dumont counters with an overhand right, and she sits down on a left hook that gets Aldana’s attention. Aldana does not falter as she chases the Brazilian down, but Dumont is outlanding her and hitting her harder. Dumont draws blood on the forehead, and Aldana rocks her with a short combination. Dumont is in her face, slugging it out and cutting Aldana again on the bridge of the nose. Aldana wipes her face, irritated by the bleeding, and the round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Round 3
The replay shows that the cut on Aldana’s forehead is much larger than it first appeared, and it was caused due to a clash of heads and not a strike. Her corner is nowhere close to closing it, and she wipes the blood all across her face as Dumont is willing to smear it with her own strikes. Dumont chases after Aldana early, like she has in the last 10 minutes, but she appears to have finally found her range to a larger degree. Dumont uses an effective jab, but Aldana plodding towards her releasing big hooks find their mark a few times. Dumont chips at the front leg enough to make Aldana take a second thought at approaching, and Aldana is covered in blood. The Mexican does not mind, stalking Dumont fearlessly and obliging in each and every striking exchange. Aldana keeps powering forward, and Dumont tries to take her down. Aldana smashes her in the face with an elbow, causing some unexpected damage, and Dumont is backpedaling and not enjoying herself anymore. Aldana hurries after her, wiping blood all the while, and she keeps working Dumont over with her strikes. Dumont tries all her might to keep Aldana away from her, using her jabs and front kicks to destabilize the oncoming Mexican. Aldana uses her shirt to wipe the blood away, and as she does, Dumont catches her with a left that makes her eye swell. Dumont may be a bit bloodied as well around the nose, but she relishes in the exchanges. Aldana coming at her opponent so fiercely, she is practically sprinting. Aldana wipes her face, strikes, lather, rinse, repeat. Dumont is constantly backing away, and with 10 seconds to spare, she shoots for a takedown that fails. With one final Superwoman punch from Aldana, the bloody match concludes. The enormous cut on the former title challenger’s face is shown in its full form when cleaned up, stretching practically from the top of her forehead to the bottom of her eyelid in a gash that would make Marvin Eastman blush. Just bleed.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldana (29-28 Dumont)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Aldana (29-28 Dumont)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (30-27 Dumont)
The Official Result
Norma Dumont def. Irene Aldana via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Norma Dumont as an underdog but with caution. He likes her size, ability to slow the pace, and grappling, but notes she took too long to start wrestling in her last fight and was getting touched up on the feet. He prefers betting the over 2.5 rounds instead of the moneyline, as Dumont might not get takedowns and Aldana could piece her up. He is picking Dumont but being wiser with his money.
Big Brady finds this fight close and difficult to call. He picks Aldana because she is the better striker and can keep the fight at range, despite Dumont possibly getting takedowns. He notes Aldana's takedown defense is decent and she pops back up quickly. He expects a close decision win for Aldana.
Daniel picks Norma Dumont via coin flip, admitting he has no strong read on the fight due to Irene Aldana's inconsistency. He notes Aldana can be gun-shy against respected opponents, while Dumont has good fight IQ and game plans. He sees Dumont grinding out a win.
The transcript does not discuss this fight.
A pick'em fight between striker and grappler. Leaning on Dumont's grappling. Aldana may have some success early off her back, but Dumont will be too strong in top positions and grind out a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Irene Aldana. He notes Aldana has better finishing potential and power at bantamweight, and Dumont is a flyweight moving up which may affect her ability to cut weight. He sees Aldana's lead hook as a weapon and can see her knocking out Dumont, who has been finished before. He recommends a small bet on Aldana by KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 145 of 308 | 47% | 145 of 308 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karol Rosa | 0 | 204 of 350 | 58% | 204 of 350 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irene Aldana | 0 | 30 of 88 | 34% | 30 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karol Rosa | 0 | 45 of 89 | 50% | 45 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Irene Aldana | 0 | 54 of 109 | 49% | 54 of 109 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karol Rosa | 0 | 67 of 108 | 62% | 67 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Irene Aldana | 0 | 61 of 111 | 54% | 61 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karol Rosa | 0 | 92 of 153 | 60% | 92 of 153 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irene Aldana | 145 of 308 | 47% | 122 of 276 | 20 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 145 of 308 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karol Rosa | 204 of 350 | 58% | 103 of 237 | 6 of 11 | 95 of 102 | 204 of 349 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irene Aldana | 30 of 88 | 34% | 23 of 75 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 30 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karol Rosa | 45 of 89 | 50% | 11 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 35 | 45 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Irene Aldana | 54 of 109 | 49% | 48 of 103 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 54 of 109 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karol Rosa | 67 of 108 | 62% | 37 of 73 | 1 of 4 | 29 of 31 | 67 of 107 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Irene Aldana | 61 of 111 | 54% | 51 of 98 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 61 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karol Rosa | 92 of 153 | 60% | 55 of 112 | 3 of 5 | 34 of 36 | 92 of 153 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aldana (-205), Rosa (+170)
Round 1
The winner of this next preliminary affair could posture themselves in line for the next title shot, given the dearth of contenders at 135 pounds. Aldana (14-7, 7-5 UFC) is coming off a deflating defeat to the great Amanda Nunes, while Rosa (17-5, 6-2 UFC) has shifted around from bantamweight to featherweight until the latter disintegrated. Whether this lasts three minutes or three full rounds, referee Jason Herzog has clocked in and is ready for what comes next. There is a sporting glove touch between the women, and Aldana strikes first with a quick jab. Rosa strings two punches and a leg kick together to give something back, and Aldana is right there to pop her with a one-two when that completes. Rosa meanders forward as chants for “Mexico” rain down, and Aldana meets her with a few peppering jabs. Rosa lunges with two more punches and a low kick, and she skirts away from a right hand that zips towards her. Aldana absorbs a few more lead leg kicks, and she gets driven back by the Brazilian with a straight right hand. Aldana sticks out a sharp jab and reddens the nose of her foe with a couple subsequent punches, and Rosa retaliates with a fierce leg kick that spins Aldana around and sits her on her seat momentarily. Aldana gathers her thoughts and tanks two more kicks, and she marches forward putting hands on Rosa. Aldana connects with a solid one-two, but Rosa continues to chop her down like a tree. Less than three minutes in, and Aldana’s left leg is welted on both sides and showing some damage. Rosa does not take her foot off the gas as she continues to work on the boxer’s leg, and Aldana forces responses with long, leaning punches. Rosa’s defense stays effective enough to show little harm from the punches, and she slams her shin on the inside of Aldana’s thigh. Aldana is wearing it, but she bites down on her mouthpiece and connects with numerous punches up top. Rosa chambers and fires more legs kicks, never allowing Aldana to feel comfortable, and Aldana is not bothering to check or do anything about them. Instead, Aldana plods forward, jabbing and dinging Rosa with punches. Rosa, the bridge of her nose cut, pounds on Aldana’s lead leg with kicks on the inside and out. Aldana toughs it out, but every time one lands, her knee nearly buckles. Aldana maintains a stiff upper lip, backing Rosa off with her long, accurate punches. Aldana gets off a right hand, and Rosa rocks her with a head kick shortly thereafter. The horn sounds, with both ladies licking their wounds after five harsh minutes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Round 2
The two practically sprint off of their stools to get ready for the second round, and they quickly touch gloves first. Rosa gets right back to bombarding Aldana with ferocious kicks, and Aldana is in her face piecing her up with punches. Rosa gives back punches, in lesser volume, but her kicks make more than up for it. Aldana hops around back and forth to try to get some feeling back in her lead wheel, as Rosa is chopping hard at the inner thigh that is welted and swollen. Rosa uses her leg kicks to open up punches up top, and Aldana continues to fight through the pain and blasts Rosa in the face with a one-two. Aldana punches her way into a long combination, and she tags Rosa with a straight right hand. Rosa chomps down on her gumshield and slings leather right back, but Aldana continues to peck and poke away at her with effective punches. With Rosa’s back against the wall, she has nowhere to go, and Aldana lays into her with long series of punches. Rosa cannot get off kicks when in close range, until Aldana backs off. Rosa falls over when throwing a kick, and Aldana lets her back up so that she can chain punches en masse. Aldana pours it on as Rosa begins to slow, and the right hands from the Mexican draw serious swelling on Rosa’s left eye. Rosa fearlessly trades leather, but Aldana is the far superior pure boxer and does some damage. The Brazilian gets enough space to lob out low kicks, until Aldana crowds her with her fists. Rosa tries to back her off courtesy of a jump knee, and Aldana parries it and comes out firing. Aldana starts kiaiing when landing punches, and Rosa’s face is busted up from taking punishment. Aldana ignores the leg kicks, even when aimed at her calf, and she stings Rosa with a vicious uppercut. Rosa throws caution to the wind and starts brawling, and Aldana takes it to her with several more crisp punches until the horn ends the wild round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldana
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Aldana
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldana
Round 3
The ladies are glad to touch ’em up to begin the last round, and Aldana is fired up. The first punch Aldana throws rocks Rosa, and Rosa takes a quick count of her teeth and absorbs a few more fiery punches. Rosa connects with a few low kicks on the inside and out, and Aldana jabs her way into a blistering exchange. Rosa gets her swollen eye smashed as she kicks Aldana’s leg out, and Aldana’s one-two continues to find its home. Rosa picks up the number of low kicks again, intercepting an advancing Aldana. Aldana rips an uppercut in the midst of a salvo, and Rosa chops her lead leg down like Van Damme kicking the banana tree in “Kickboxer.” Rosa continues her assault of leg kicks, and Aldana finds her mark with head shots and one big one to the body. Aldana busts open the mouse under Rosa’s eye and spams uppercuts, and Rosa is backing off but still trading. This is insane. Aldana may not realize how hurt Rosa is, and she does not target the body as much and continues teeing off up top. Rosa throws back with everything she has, and Aldana drills the liver with a left hand. Aldana starts aiming punches to the body, and she mixes shots up top and down to the midsection. Rosa is tough as a two-dollar steak, bleeding from both eyes and compromised by body shots, but she is still in the fight. Aldana connects again and again with long chains of punches, transforming Rosa’s face into an unrecognizable visage, and Rosa counters with bombs. With 30 seconds left, Rosa decides it is time to start brawling, chin be darned. Aldana walks through leg kicks and busts Rosa in the chops with everything she has. Aldana smashes Rosa’s nose, and blood is leaking out of Rosa’s face from basically everywhere. Rosa may take some steps back, but she does not stop trading furious leather until the bitter end. The final bell sounds, putting an end to a sure-fire “Fight of the Night” winner immediately worthy of “Fight of the Year” consideration. What an absolutely sensational firefight!
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldana (29-28 Aldana)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Aldana (29-28 Aldana)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldana (29-28 Aldana)
The Official Result
Irene Aldana def. Karol Rosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Irene Aldana but is hesitant, citing concerns about fighters coming off title losses. He acknowledges Rosa's busy striking and takedown ability, but believes Aldana's size and power should prevail. He does not trust her with his money.
Big Brady picks Karol Rosa as a slight underdog, calling it a close fight. He likes Aldana's striking and power but notes Rosa's youth (7 years younger), high volume (over 5 significant strikes per minute), and improving grappling (brown/black belt in BJJ). Brady believes Rosa can get takedowns, as she has in 5 UFC fights, and potentially win minutes on the mat. He predicts a very close split decision for Rosa.
Cody picks Rosa, arguing that Aldana's takedown defense is a major liability and that Rosa has the volume and wrestling to win. He notes that Aldana was nearly beaten by Macy Chiasson before landing a lucky upkick, and that Rosa is younger and has shown improvement. Cody believes Rosa can swarm Aldana with volume and mix in takedowns to secure a decision. He is not fully confident but sees Rosa as the dog pick.
Daniel Vreeland picks Irene Aldana as his lock, stating that Karol Rosa is in over her head in the striking department and won't get enough grappling going. He thinks the line on Aldana is nice at around -200.
Lucrative James is confident Karol Rosa is the side at plus money. He believes Irene Aldana's win over Macy Chiasson was a fluke (upkick from bottom) and that she was losing that fight. He thinks Rosa can get takedowns and control from top, and that the fight is close on the feet. He calls betting on Aldana at minus 230 'mental' and says Rosa should not be plus 180.
The host picks Rosa as an underdog, citing her youth, potential, and well-rounded game. He believes Rosa can out-grapple Aldana, who has shown vulnerabilities in the clinch and on the ground. He notes that Rosa can be competitive on the feet but should look to close the distance and implement her grappling. He expects Rosa to win a decision by putting together a better MMA package.
Paul picks Rosa as an underdog, citing Aldana's poor takedown defense and Rosa's volume and wrestling. He notes that Aldana has been taken down easily in past fights and that Rosa can win on the feet or by mixing in takedowns. Paul acknowledges both fighters are untrustworthy but sees value in Rosa at +160. He believes Rosa's cardio and volume will be key.
The Guru picks Irene Aldana over Karol Rosa, despite Aldana's poor performance against Amanda Nunes. He notes Aldana's wins over Macy Chiasson and Yana Santos, and believes she has a finishing advantage and is physically bigger. He expects Aldana to win easily.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Nunes | 0 | 142 of 267 | 53% | 196 of 323 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 7:00 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 41 of 143 | 28% | 57 of 159 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Nunes | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 21 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 8 of 31 | 25% | 8 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Amanda Nunes | 0 | 31 of 61 | 50% | 31 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 11 of 38 | 28% | 11 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Amanda Nunes | 0 | 23 of 47 | 48% | 25 of 49 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 4 | Amanda Nunes | 0 | 48 of 77 | 62% | 49 of 78 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 13 of 48 | 27% | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 5 | Amanda Nunes | 0 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 70 of 79 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:36 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 17 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Nunes | 142 of 267 | 53% | 97 of 198 | 28 of 49 | 17 of 20 | 115 of 234 | 5 of 8 | 22 of 25 |
| Irene Aldana | 41 of 143 | 28% | 25 of 118 | 3 of 7 | 13 of 18 | 36 of 133 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Nunes | 21 of 56 | 37% | 9 of 35 | 9 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Irene Aldana | 8 of 31 | 25% | 5 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Amanda Nunes | 31 of 61 | 50% | 16 of 40 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 10 | 30 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Irene Aldana | 11 of 38 | 28% | 4 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 | 11 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amanda Nunes | 23 of 47 | 48% | 20 of 40 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 |
| Irene Aldana | 8 of 22 | 36% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 4 | Amanda Nunes | 48 of 77 | 62% | 36 of 61 | 6 of 9 | 6 of 7 | 45 of 71 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Irene Aldana | 13 of 48 | 27% | 9 of 41 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 2 | |
| 5 | Amanda Nunes | 19 of 26 | 73% | 16 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 19 |
| Irene Aldana | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Amanda Nunes but expresses hesitation. He notes that Nunes is the GOAT and should win, but questions her motivation due to her age, wealth, and new family. He thinks she may need to rely on wrestling, and hopes she is in shape. He acknowledges Irene Aldana's technical boxing and takedown defense, but believes Nunes' power and wrestling will prevail.
Big Brady picks Amanda Nunes to win by first-round submission. He believes Nunes is the far superior fighter and that Aldana's wins are against lower-level competition. Aldana struggled with Macy Chiasson and had her back taken. Even if Nunes is not fully motivated, she should dominate. He advises against betting Nunes due to the high price and potential motivation issues, but still picks her to finish early.
Cody picks Amanda Nunes, citing her wrestling game plan as the key. He notes that Holly Holm and Macy Chiasson both took Aldana down multiple times, and if Nunes sticks to that approach, it should be easy work. He acknowledges Aldana's boxing and lateral movement but believes Nunes's takedowns will neutralize her. He also mentions that Nunes's motivation and conditioning looked career-best in the Peña rematch.
Connor believes Nunes will win due to her athletic advantage and wrestling. He notes that Aldana is easy to take down and has a bad habit of pulling guard, similar to Dern. He expects Nunes to use her wrestling to control the fight, as she did against de Randamie.
Daniel Levi picks Amanda Nunes, citing that all film and stats point to Nunes having Aldana covered in every part of the game. He notes that the line is driven down by the first Pena fight, but Nunes dominated the rematch. He acknowledges Aldana's power and cleaner hands than Pena, but believes Nunes is the better fighter with more ways to win, including superior wrestling, Jiu-Jitsu, striking, and power. He sees the grappling gap as 10 worlds apart and expects Nunes to finish the fight.
James picks Amanda Nunes to win but is hesitant due to volatility. He notes Nunes is 35, talking about retirement, and had an off night against Pena. He thinks if Nunes is focused, she submits Aldana within three rounds. Aldana is a good boxer but weak elsewhere. James prefers not to bet the moneyline at -350, suggesting props instead. He predicts Nunes finishes in round four or five.
Nunes has a clear grappling advantage and should take Aldana down repeatedly. Aldana's best chance is a knockout on the feet, but Nunes will likely close the distance and control the fight on the mat. The over 2.5 rounds is likely as Aldana is tough off her back. Nunes by decision is the most probable outcome, though the moneyline is accurate.
Paul picks Amanda Nunes, acknowledging the line already factors in her inconsistency. He notes that Nunes has a minus-500 skill set but the line is discounted due to her personal life and past performances. He highlights that Aldana doesn't have big KO power, so if Nunes closes distance and gets takedowns, she should dominate. He suggests hedging by betting Nunes and then taking Aldana live after a couple rounds if Nunes fades.
The MMA Guru picks Amanda Nunes, acknowledging Aldana's KO power but citing a skill gap. He notes Aldana was schooled by Holly Holm and struggled against Macy Chiasson, while Nunes is a different level. He predicts Nunes will mix in takedowns and finish Aldana via standing TKO in the second round after some back-and-forth on the feet.
Zane agrees with Connor that Nunes will win. He emphasizes that Aldana's wrestling is a huge problem, as she gave up three takedowns to Macy Chiasson. He notes that Nunes is not a great wrestler but Aldana is worse, and her instinct to pull guard will be exploited.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irene Aldana | 1 | 37 of 71 | 52% | 51 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 39 of 94 | 41% | 72 of 140 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irene Aldana | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 29 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Irene Aldana | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 16 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 17 of 39 | 43% | 50 of 85 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 | |
| 3 | Irene Aldana | 1 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Macy Chiasson | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irene Aldana | 37 of 71 | 52% | 24 of 57 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 9 | 19 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 17 |
| Macy Chiasson | 39 of 94 | 41% | 26 of 80 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 31 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 19 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irene Aldana | 25 of 47 | 53% | 14 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 13 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 11 |
| Macy Chiasson | 13 of 33 | 39% | 4 of 24 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Irene Aldana | 9 of 12 | 75% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Macy Chiasson | 17 of 39 | 43% | 15 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 19 | |
| 3 | Irene Aldana | 3 of 12 | 25% | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Macy Chiasson | 9 of 22 | 40% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Macy Chiasson, noting she can beat Irene Aldana the same way Holly Holm did: manage distance and use takedowns. He thinks Chiasson's length and grappling will be key, and she just took down Norma Dumont six times. He placed a small moneyline bet at +178, which has since moved to +160.
Big Brady picks Irene Aldana to win by decision, highlighting her 84% takedown defense and superior striking. He notes Macy Chiasson's path to victory relies on using her size and clinch, but Aldana's takedown defense is phenomenal and she has fought much better competition. He believes Aldana has more power and better cardio, and a finish wouldn't shock him.
Cody is confident in Irene Aldana, having already bet her at -161. He believes Aldana dominates on the feet, as Chiasson's wrestling is not highly rated and her cardio fades. He notes that Chiasson's move back to 135 could be problematic. He thinks Aldana's boxing and footwork will be too much.
Daniel Levi picks Irene Aldana but with low confidence. He notes Aldana's high output and power, but also her tendency to underperform in favored spots. He acknowledges Chiasson's physical advantages (height, reach) and improved wrestling, as seen against Dumont. Levi says he's been burnt by Aldana before and won't lay the chalk, but still sees her as the pick.
Jacob picks Irene Aldana, praising her composure and power. He notes she handled Yana Kunitskaya's pressure well and landed a fight-ending left hook. He thinks Chiasson does not like getting hit and will panic when Aldana lands. He believes Aldana will find the big shot and capitalize.
The host is very confident in Irene Aldana, expecting her to nullify Chiasson's clinch and grappling with excellent takedown defense. He believes Aldana's crisp striking will lead to a knockout in the second or third round. He calls -180 a gift.
Paul picks Aldana but with hesitation, noting that women's MMA is unpredictable. He acknowledges Chiasson's wrestling could be a factor if she takes Aldana down, but he believes Aldana's striking improvements and speed advantage will carry her. He is concerned about Aldana's 14-month layoff but thinks she has used the time well.
The MMA Guru picks Irene Aldana to win by 29-28 decision, based on the first two rounds. He expects Aldana to outbox Chiasson, landing more damaging blows. Chiasson will push Aldana against the cage, but Aldana will escape and land good shots. Chiasson may push pace in the third, but it will be too little too late. Aldana wins via unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irene Aldana | 1 | 37 of 66 | 56% | 37 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Yana Kunitskaya | 0 | 24 of 49 | 48% | 30 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irene Aldana | 1 | 37 of 66 | 56% | 37 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Yana Kunitskaya | 0 | 24 of 49 | 48% | 30 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irene Aldana | 37 of 66 | 56% | 28 of 53 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 33 |
| Yana Kunitskaya | 24 of 49 | 48% | 8 of 28 | 9 of 12 | 7 of 9 | 18 of 41 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irene Aldana | 37 of 66 | 56% | 28 of 53 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 33 |
| Yana Kunitskaya | 24 of 49 | 48% | 8 of 28 | 9 of 12 | 7 of 9 | 18 of 41 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kunitskaya as an underdog, citing her well-roundedness. He notes Aldana is a pure boxer with power but only one way to win, while Kunitskaya has striking diversity, wrestling, and better cardio. He has a moneyline bet on Kunitskaya and is confident in her winning.
Big Brady picks Yana Kunitskaya to win by decision. He notes that Yana is more well-rounded, has a better resume, and can mix in takedowns. He points out that Aldana's takedown defense (84%) may be inflated due to weak competition. He is concerned about Yana being finished in four of her five losses, but thinks if Yana takes it to the scorecards, she can win. He calls it a close fight, a coin flip.
Cody leans toward Kunitskaya as a slight underdog. He notes her clinch strength, durability, and improvement at American Top Team. He thinks she can neutralize Aldana's striking with grappling and cage control. He acknowledges Aldana's striking advantage but believes Kunitskaya's grappling will be the difference.
Daniel Levi picks Yana Kunitskaya as the underdog. He argues that Irene Aldana gets hit too much, absorbing over 100 strikes in multiple fights, and that she doesn't shoot takedowns, so the fight will stay standing. He believes Kunitskaya has good striking and can take advantage of Aldana's poor defense. He calls it a pick-em fight and likes getting plus money on Kunitskaya.
Jacob picks Aldana using MMA math, noting that both Aldana and Kunitskaya beat Ketlen Vieira, but Aldana did it by KO while Kunitskaya won a decision. He acknowledges Angelo's criticism of MMA math but sticks with his pick. He seems less confident and admits it's a random pick.
I'm going with Kunitskaya by decision. This is a striker vs grappler matchup, and I trust Kunitskaya to land takedowns and control Aldana. Aldana gave up five takedowns to Holly Holm, and Kunitskaya is a better wrestler. I expect Kunitskaya to grind out a decision, similar to her fight against Lina Lansberg. No real conviction, but I like the grappler here.
Paul has no clear pick. He discusses the grappling vs striking dynamic but finds it too risky. He notes the big cage favors Aldana but Kunitskaya's grappling could be effective. He calls it a pass.
The Guru picks Aldana by 30-27 unanimous decision. He believes Aldana's size and weight advantage will prevent Kunitskaya from taking her down, and her standup is far more educated. He expects Kunitskaya to wade forward looking for a clinch, while Aldana lands jabs, straight rights, and volume all fight long. The Guru thinks Kunitskaya will not look like she belongs in there, and Aldana will have a field day defending takedowns and landing punches.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 0 | 154 of 301 | 51% | 187 of 342 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 5:16 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 69 of 185 | 37% | 92 of 210 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 0 | 21 of 50 | 42% | 31 of 60 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 0 | 23 of 47 | 48% | 27 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 17 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 0 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 37 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 4 | Holly Holm | 0 | 39 of 58 | 67% | 39 of 60 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Holly Holm | 0 | 48 of 95 | 50% | 53 of 102 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 18 of 55 | 32% | 32 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 154 of 301 | 51% | 81 of 214 | 56 of 68 | 17 of 19 | 140 of 272 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 28 |
| Irene Aldana | 69 of 185 | 37% | 38 of 128 | 12 of 30 | 19 of 27 | 65 of 181 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 21 of 50 | 42% | 8 of 33 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Irene Aldana | 12 of 31 | 38% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 13 | 12 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 23 of 47 | 48% | 10 of 31 | 8 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Irene Aldana | 12 of 32 | 37% | 5 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 23 of 51 | 45% | 12 of 38 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 |
| Irene Aldana | 9 of 25 | 36% | 4 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Holly Holm | 39 of 58 | 67% | 14 of 28 | 19 of 24 | 6 of 6 | 37 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Irene Aldana | 18 of 42 | 42% | 13 of 34 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Holly Holm | 48 of 95 | 50% | 37 of 84 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 47 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Irene Aldana | 18 of 55 | 32% | 13 of 40 | 3 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady leans towards Irene Aldana to win by decision. He cites Aldana's higher output and youth, while Holm is older and slowing down. He thinks Holm will try to grind against the cage, but when at range, Aldana has the edge. He expects a close, boring fight.
Daniel picks Irene Aldana, citing her upward trajectory, higher output, and power. He notes that Holly Holm is slowing down and relies on stalling against the fence, but Aldana has the tools to win a decision by outworking her. He acknowledges Aldana's past close losses and chinny moments but believes she is the younger, hungrier fighter with more power on the feet.
The host picks Holly Holm to win by decision, emphasizing her veteran experience, strength, and ability to make fights ugly by clinching and using takedowns. He believes Aldana's power is a threat but that Holm's fight IQ and durability will carry her over five rounds.
The Guru picks Irene Aldana, praising her stand-up, pace, and improvement. He argues that Holm's recent wins are unimpressive and that Aldana's loss to Pennington was close. He believes Aldana will work the body and possibly get a second-round TKO, noting her training with Alexa Grasso and her ability to push a high pace.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 20 of 76 | 26% | 20 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 1 | 26 of 71 | 36% | 26 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irene Aldana | 0 | 20 of 76 | 26% | 20 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 1 | 26 of 71 | 36% | 26 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irene Aldana | 20 of 76 | 26% | 19 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 26 of 71 | 36% | 13 of 52 | 7 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 24 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irene Aldana | 20 of 76 | 26% | 19 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 26 of 71 | 36% | 13 of 52 | 7 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 24 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Next up a bantamweight, the undefeated Vieira (10-0, 4-0 UFC) will make her long-awaited return after a nearly two-year layoff against tall Mexican boxer Aldana (11-5, 4-3 UFC). Referee Jason Herzog is taking charge of the cage for this bout. The two women touch gloves, and Vieira starts off with a big right hand that is blocked easily. Vieira presses forward, and as she wings a right hand, Aldana surprises her with a heavy leg kick. The Brazilian connects with a stiff right hand, and as she comes forward with more punches, Aldana strings a combination together to back her off. The two miss with one-twos, and Aldana catches her with a fierce right hand, but Vieira walks right through it. Aldana keeps her distance and blocks the oncoming attack of Vieira, and times a right straight to the body in response. Vieira swings and misses multiple times, and Aldana lands a right down the middle. "Fenomeno" loads up on her punches, and Aldana is keeping her strikes straighter and quicker. Landing another right hand, Aldana backs away to avoid a potential counter. Vieira scores a left to the body that makes Aldana backpedal, and the Mexican fighter lands a solid leg kick while backing away. Four punches fly from Aldana, and she lands one cleanly, leading Vieira to throw back two in her direction that glance off her intended target. Both score with powerful punches, and Aldana follows suit with a left to the body. Vieira unloads some heavy punches, but they are largely blocked, allowing Aldana to quickly counter.
As Vieira takes a moment to reset after that barrage, Aldana leaps in with a ferocious left hand that catches Vieira about as cleanly as it could possibly land. Vieira may be out as she falls to the canvas, but to be sure, Aldana follows her down with a blazing right hand that officially shuts the lights out, as Herzog springs in to rescue the unconscious fighter from Brazil.
Vieira is unbeaten no more, and Aldana scores what is likely the biggest win in her career with a devastating knockout.
The Official Result
Irene Aldana def. Ketlen Vieira R1 4:51 via KO (Punch)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 125 of 333 | 37% | 127 of 335 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vanessa Melo | 0 | 68 of 250 | 27% | 68 of 250 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irene Aldana | 0 | 45 of 108 | 41% | 45 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vanessa Melo | 0 | 16 of 86 | 18% | 16 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Irene Aldana | 0 | 36 of 102 | 35% | 36 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vanessa Melo | 0 | 27 of 84 | 32% | 27 of 84 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Irene Aldana | 0 | 44 of 123 | 35% | 46 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vanessa Melo | 0 | 25 of 80 | 31% | 25 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irene Aldana | 125 of 333 | 37% | 79 of 271 | 21 of 34 | 25 of 28 | 124 of 332 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Melo | 68 of 250 | 27% | 48 of 207 | 9 of 28 | 11 of 15 | 68 of 250 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irene Aldana | 45 of 108 | 41% | 26 of 87 | 8 of 10 | 11 of 11 | 45 of 108 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Melo | 16 of 86 | 18% | 11 of 72 | 2 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Irene Aldana | 36 of 102 | 35% | 23 of 83 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 9 | 36 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Melo | 27 of 84 | 32% | 21 of 72 | 3 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Irene Aldana | 44 of 123 | 35% | 30 of 101 | 7 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 43 of 122 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Melo | 25 of 80 | 31% | 16 of 63 | 4 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 25 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
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