Career Averages - Donald Cerrone
Career Averages - Matt Brown
Donald Cerrone - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 0 | 24 of 36 | 66% | 35 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 24 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jim Miller | 0 | 21 of 29 | 72% | 32 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 20 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:08 | |
| 2 | Jim Miller | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 24 of 36 | 66% | 16 of 28 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 |
| Donald Cerrone | 21 of 33 | 63% | 12 of 20 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jim Miller | 21 of 29 | 72% | 15 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 |
| Donald Cerrone | 17 of 26 | 65% | 10 of 16 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jim Miller | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jim Miller based on his recent knockout wins over prospects, while noting that Cerrone is stepping in on short notice and may not be in peak form. He acknowledges Cerrone's technical advantage but believes Miller's toughness and momentum give him the edge. He also mentions that Cerrone at +200 might be worth a small sprinkle.
Big Brady is confident in Jim Miller, stating Donald Cerrone looks washed and doesn't want to be there. He notes Miller's power and first-round finishing ability, predicting a first-round knockout. He mentions Cerrone's recent struggles and weight cuts, while Miller is still active and motivated.
Cody thinks Miller's improved boxing and fast starts will overwhelm Cerrone, who has looked poor recently. He notes Miller's wrestling and submissions are also threats. He expects Miller to finish early.
Daniel Levi leans toward Donald Cerrone as the underdog, citing the price (+165) and the fact that Cerrone has beaten Miller before via head kick. He notes that Miller tends to slow down after the first round, and if Cerrone can weather the early storm, he can take over. Levi acknowledges that Cerrone is past his prime and has lost to lesser opponents, but he sees value in the dog price. He does not bet it himself.
Cerrone is the better fighter with more tools, and the line is too wide. Miller is a quick starter but if he doesn't finish early, Cerrone takes over. Cerrone at 170 lbs benefits him. The host predicts Cerrone by decision, noting Miller's cardio is not as bad as some claim.
Paul is torn, calling it a 50-50 fight. He likes Cerrone's chances if he survives the first round, especially at welterweight, but won't bet Miller at -185. He might sprinkle on a Cerrone late finish prop.
The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Donald Cerrone as an underdog, citing the fight being at welterweight where Cerrone won't have to cut as much weight, preserving his chin and cardio. He thinks Miller's power may not translate up a division and that Cerrone can survive the first round and rally in later rounds. He calls it a 50/50 fight and predicts a 29-28 decision for Cerrone.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Morono | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 18 of 36 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 35 of 84 | 41% | 41 of 90 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Morono | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 18 of 36 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 35 of 84 | 41% | 41 of 90 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Morono | 17 of 35 | 48% | 5 of 23 | 10 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 35 of 84 | 41% | 28 of 74 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 30 of 73 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Morono | 17 of 35 | 48% | 5 of 23 | 10 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 35 of 84 | 41% | 28 of 74 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 30 of 73 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady believes Cerrone is the better fighter everywhere, despite being past his prime. He notes Cerrone has fought much better competition and should have an edge on the feet and on the mat. Brady thinks Cerrone can mix in takedowns against Morono's poor takedown defense (47%). He predicts a decision win for Cerrone but says the line at -185 is too high to bet. He acknowledges Morono's high volume but thinks Cerrone's level of competition gives him the edge.
Daniel Levi picks Donald Cerrone, stating there are levels to this and Morono is not a top 25 guy. He highlights Cerrone's superior striking, grappling, and cardio, and notes Morono's inability to get up from bottom. He expects Cerrone to outclass Morono, possibly via blast double or high kick, and predicts a decision win. He mentions Cerrone's durability in the Nico Price fight as a positive sign.
The host is confident in Donald Cerrone, believing he has advantages in striking, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu. He expects Cerrone to piece up Morono and win a decision, noting Morono's cardio issues and short notice. He likes Cerrone by decision prop.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 113 of 230 | 49% | 113 of 230 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 150 of 312 | 48% | 167 of 330 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donald Cerrone | 0 | 37 of 66 | 56% | 37 of 66 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 55 of 115 | 47% | 63 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 2 | Donald Cerrone | 0 | 38 of 89 | 42% | 38 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 57 of 112 | 50% | 57 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Donald Cerrone | 0 | 38 of 75 | 50% | 38 of 75 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 38 of 85 | 44% | 47 of 95 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Cerrone | 113 of 230 | 49% | 69 of 181 | 38 of 43 | 6 of 6 | 101 of 216 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
| Niko Price | 150 of 312 | 48% | 80 of 225 | 30 of 42 | 40 of 45 | 129 of 284 | 18 of 24 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donald Cerrone | 37 of 66 | 56% | 20 of 49 | 13 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 54 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 55 of 115 | 47% | 40 of 96 | 11 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 38 of 93 | 17 of 22 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Donald Cerrone | 38 of 89 | 42% | 22 of 69 | 15 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 38 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 57 of 112 | 50% | 21 of 68 | 17 of 23 | 19 of 21 | 56 of 111 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Donald Cerrone | 38 of 75 | 50% | 27 of 63 | 10 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 36 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Niko Price | 38 of 85 | 44% | 19 of 61 | 2 of 6 | 17 of 18 | 35 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
Big Brady picks Niko Price, citing Cerrone's decline and recent knockout losses to top competition. He notes Price is faster and a slow starter, while Cerrone has taken a lot of damage. He expects Price to get a first-round knockout, though he admits Cerrone is better on paper everywhere except durability.
The host believes Niko Price's power and explosiveness will be too much for Donald Cerrone, who is on a losing streak and has shown durability issues. He notes Price's ability to finish from any position and Cerrone's tendency to get stopped early. He predicts a first-round KO for Price, and likes the under 1.5 rounds at -105.
The host picks Niko Price over Donald Cerrone, citing Price's size, power, and ability to start fast. He notes that Cerrone has struggled against fighters who come out aggressively, and that Price was competitive against Vicente Luque. He predicts a KO win for Price.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Pettis | 0 | 63 of 113 | 55% | 81 of 133 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 62 of 148 | 41% | 62 of 148 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Pettis | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 17 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 2 | Anthony Pettis | 0 | 21 of 38 | 55% | 33 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 20 of 52 | 38% | 20 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 3 | Anthony Pettis | 0 | 27 of 48 | 56% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 25 of 65 | 38% | 25 of 65 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Pettis | 63 of 113 | 55% | 44 of 84 | 10 of 18 | 9 of 11 | 60 of 110 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Donald Cerrone | 62 of 148 | 41% | 31 of 112 | 18 of 22 | 13 of 14 | 59 of 143 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Pettis | 15 of 27 | 55% | 7 of 13 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Donald Cerrone | 17 of 31 | 54% | 10 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Anthony Pettis | 21 of 38 | 55% | 13 of 28 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 20 of 52 | 38% | 8 of 38 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Anthony Pettis | 27 of 48 | 56% | 24 of 43 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 25 of 65 | 38% | 13 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 62 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Donald Cerrone, but with low confidence. He notes both fighters are past their prime and have shown signs of quitting. He believes Cerrone has a step down in competition and more heart, but worries about his durability. He predicts a decision win for Cerrone.
Daniel Levi picks Donald Cerrone, arguing that Pettis is not the same fighter as in 2013 and lacks sustainability. He believes if Cerrone avoids an early fight-ending blow, he will take over with takedowns and pressure. Levi notes that Cerrone is a slow starter but should dominate if he gets to the second round, and that Pettis tends to quit when pressured.
Matt picks Pettis but is not confident, citing both fighters' mental fragility and recent losses. He thinks Pettis can establish pressure and leg kicks early to get a finish, but he doesn't trust either guy. He calls the fight a pass for betting and suggests Cerrone as the value side if forced to bet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor McGregor | 1 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conor McGregor | 1 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor McGregor | 19 of 26 | 73% | 19 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 16 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conor McGregor | 19 of 26 | 73% | 19 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 16 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Daniel picks Conor McGregor to win by knockout, likely in the first round. He notes that McGregor's left hand is a huge factor and that Cerrone has historically folded under big lights. However, he questions McGregor's motivation and fatigue issues, but believes this is a tune-up fight for McGregor.
The host picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round KO, citing McGregor's range, speed, in-and-out movement, and left hand as key advantages. He believes Cerrone will struggle to deal with these attributes and that McGregor will set up a trap and land a clean left hand. However, he notes that if Cerrone's odds reach +300, he might place a small bet on Cerrone due to value, but his official prediction remains McGregor by first-round KO.
The host strongly favors Conor McGregor, citing his first-round focus and accuracy against Donald Cerrone's lack of head movement and slow starts. He notes Cerrone's recent KO loss to Justin Gaethje and the short turnaround (4 months), which raises chin concerns. He believes McGregor's takedown defense is underrated and that Cerrone's wrestling won't be effective. He predicts a first-round KO by McGregor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Donald Cerrone | 1 | 40 of 61 | 65% | 40 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Donald Cerrone | 1 | 40 of 61 | 65% | 40 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 17 of 52 | 32% | 12 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 40 of 61 | 65% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 13 of 15 | 36 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 17 of 52 | 32% | 12 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 40 of 61 | 65% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 13 of 15 | 36 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The main event is here, between two men that have combined for 24 post-fight bonuses, as Cerrone (36-12, 1 NC; 23-9 UFC) tussles with Gaethje (20-2, 3-2 UFC) at lightweight. The referee for this headliner that virtually guarantees action is Jerin Valel. The two touch gloves and we are underway. Cerrone starts with a push kick to the body, and Gaethje replies with a few sharp leg kicks. Gaethje whiffs on another leg kick, and Cerrone brings his knee up to check them. Gaethje presses forward and swings wildly, but nothing connects of significance. Gaethje ducks down to throw a big right hand and misses, but he does crack him with another few leg kicks for good measure. "The Highlight" tags Cerrone coming on, and backs way while launching a few more leg kicks, although "Cowboy" is starting to check them. Gaethje swings with all he has and "Cowboy" barely evades it, and tying up Gaethje tags Cerrone again. Cerrone leaps forward with a left hand, and then throws his own leg kick. A three-punch combination from "Cowboy" lands, and Gaethje cracks him with a counter left hand. As Gaethje swings, Cerrone responds with a body kick. The two men crash together, and Gaethje gets the better of this exchange. "Cowboy" ducks down and Gaethje times an uppercut, and then throws another leg kick that appears to stymie the movement of Cerrone slightly.
Gaethje blasts "Cowboy" right a right hand when coming in, halting the Colorado native in his tracks and dropping him to a knee. Gaethje cracks him with a few more short shots, until "Cowboy" falls to the ground
. "The Highlight" looks to Valel for a stoppage, but he does not get it so he clubs Cerrone with a few more punches until Valel calls the fight. Cerrone pops back up and protests the stoppage, but the fight is over. On the post-fight interview, the two celebrate and Cerrone is all smiles as he congratulates the victor.
The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Donald Cerrone R1 4:18 via TKO (Punches)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 104 of 200 | 52% | 104 of 200 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 68 of 185 | 36% | 68 of 185 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Ferguson | 0 | 52 of 104 | 50% | 52 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 38 of 95 | 40% | 38 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tony Ferguson | 0 | 52 of 96 | 54% | 52 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 30 of 90 | 33% | 30 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Ferguson | 104 of 200 | 52% | 65 of 144 | 25 of 37 | 14 of 19 | 103 of 198 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 68 of 185 | 36% | 43 of 152 | 15 of 23 | 10 of 10 | 68 of 184 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Ferguson | 52 of 104 | 50% | 31 of 76 | 14 of 20 | 7 of 8 | 51 of 102 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 38 of 95 | 40% | 28 of 82 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 38 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tony Ferguson | 52 of 96 | 54% | 34 of 68 | 11 of 17 | 7 of 11 | 52 of 96 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Donald Cerrone | 30 of 90 | 33% | 15 of 70 | 9 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 30 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Cerrone | 0 | 90 of 223 | 40% | 90 of 223 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Al Iaquinta | 2 | 138 of 361 | 38% | 140 of 363 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donald Cerrone | 0 | 19 of 58 | 32% | 19 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Al Iaquinta | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Donald Cerrone | 0 | 24 of 59 | 40% | 24 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Al Iaquinta | 0 | 21 of 68 | 30% | 21 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Donald Cerrone | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Al Iaquinta | 1 | 28 of 78 | 35% | 29 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 4 | Donald Cerrone | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 9 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Al Iaquinta | 1 | 26 of 72 | 36% | 27 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 5 | Donald Cerrone | 0 | 20 of 47 | 42% | 20 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Al Iaquinta | 0 | 43 of 98 | 43% | 43 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Cerrone | 90 of 223 | 40% | 49 of 165 | 23 of 38 | 18 of 20 | 90 of 223 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Al Iaquinta | 138 of 361 | 38% | 87 of 302 | 17 of 25 | 34 of 34 | 129 of 344 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donald Cerrone | 19 of 58 | 32% | 10 of 42 | 6 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Al Iaquinta | 20 of 45 | 44% | 12 of 35 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Donald Cerrone | 24 of 59 | 40% | 11 of 41 | 5 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 24 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Al Iaquinta | 21 of 68 | 30% | 11 of 57 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 21 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Donald Cerrone | 18 of 39 | 46% | 9 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Al Iaquinta | 28 of 78 | 35% | 15 of 64 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 25 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | |
| 4 | Donald Cerrone | 9 of 20 | 45% | 6 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Al Iaquinta | 26 of 72 | 36% | 17 of 61 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 21 of 65 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 4 | |
| 5 | Donald Cerrone | 20 of 47 | 42% | 13 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Al Iaquinta | 43 of 98 | 43% | 32 of 85 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 42 of 97 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Matt Brown - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 1 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 22 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 8 of 31 | 25% | 17 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 1 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 22 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 8 of 31 | 25% | 17 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 11 of 15 | 73% | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 8 of 31 | 25% | 2 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 11 of 15 | 73% | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 8 of 31 | 25% | 2 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Matt Brown, saying he thinks Brown will be the more durable of the two. He notes Court McGee is coming off a bad knockout loss and his chin is a question. He acknowledges the line movement tracker shows McGee went from +140 to -180 favorite, and that trend has been 7-1, but he goes against it. He is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Court McGee but expresses distrust after McGee's fight against Condit where he didn't attempt a single takedown. He believes if McGee uses the right game plan—wrestling and taking down Matt Brown—he should win easily. Brady notes Brown is 42 with poor takedown defense and cardio, and McGee has better cardio and wrestling. He predicts a third-round submission, but says he can't fully trust McGee after the Condit fight.
Cody picks McGee, citing his better gas tank and durability. He notes that Brown's chin and reflexes have declined with age, and that McGee's kickboxing is good enough to compete. He expects McGee to wrestle and control the fight, especially in later rounds. He mentions the 'died and came back' theory for cardio.
Connor leans toward Court McGee, acknowledging that Matt Brown could knock him out early but that McGee's durability and pace are likely to carry him. He notes that Brown's endurance has declined and that McGee's grinding style is antithetical to Brown's current capabilities. Connor expects McGee to win by decision, as Brown's recent fights show he fades.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting bias as he will attend the fight and is a fan. He believes Brown is historically the better fighter, having reached number five in the welterweight rankings, while McGee never cracked the top 15. However, he acknowledges Brown's age (42) and cardio issues, which could allow McGee to push the pace and mix in takedowns. Levi hopes Brown gets a knockout to tie the UFC record, but notes the pick is not based on a betting edge.
McGee has a cardio and pace advantage over the aging Brown. He will tie Brown up, use footwork to avoid big shots, and weaponize his cardio to take over in the later rounds. Brown has slowed down in recent fights and his wrestling may not be effective against McGee. McGee will grind out a decision victory.
Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes that McGee can make the fight easy by sticking to takedowns and controlling Brown. He added McGee to a chalk parlay. He acknowledges the possibility of a 'gentleman's agreement' striking affair but believes McGee's grappling is the key.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown, citing his better recent performances and the fact that Court McGee is coming off a brutal KO loss. He believes Brown's toughness and aggression will be too much, predicting a KO in the second or third round.
Zane picks Court McGee because he believes McGee's pace and grinding style will overwhelm Matt Brown, who fades as fights progress. He notes that Brown is still dangerous early but lacks the endurance to keep up with McGee's constant pressure and wrestling. Zane expects McGee to win a decision, as Brown's recent losses show he slows down significantly.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 81 of 129 | 62% | 95 of 145 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 5:01 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 111 of 211 | 52% | 186 of 289 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryan Barberena | 0 | 23 of 37 | 62% | 25 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 62 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Bryan Barberena | 0 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 29 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 35 of 60 | 58% | 59 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:30 | |
| 3 | Bryan Barberena | 0 | 35 of 56 | 62% | 41 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 53 of 100 | 53% | 65 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Barberena | 81 of 129 | 62% | 36 of 75 | 38 of 44 | 7 of 10 | 51 of 95 | 24 of 28 | 6 of 6 |
| Matt Brown | 111 of 211 | 52% | 82 of 170 | 12 of 18 | 17 of 23 | 78 of 164 | 28 of 42 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryan Barberena | 23 of 37 | 62% | 8 of 21 | 12 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 22 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 |
| Matt Brown | 23 of 51 | 45% | 13 of 36 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 11 | 19 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bryan Barberena | 23 of 36 | 63% | 9 of 20 | 12 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 29 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 35 of 60 | 58% | 26 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 10 | 23 of 45 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 5 | |
| 3 | Bryan Barberena | 35 of 56 | 62% | 19 of 34 | 14 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 25 of 44 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 3 |
| Matt Brown | 53 of 100 | 53% | 43 of 87 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 73 | 17 of 27 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Bryan Barberena, citing his durability, impressive volume, and forward pressure. He notes Barberena landed 108 strikes in his last fight and 169 against Vicente Luque. He thinks Barberena's constant volume will be the difference and expects a decision win. He says he probably won't bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Matt Brown to knock out Bryan Barberena in the first or second round. He believes Barberena is washed after the Luke fight, citing poor takedown defense and being dropped twice by Jason Witt. He notes that Brown still has power, as shown in his last fight against Lima, and that Barberena's chin is no longer reliable. Brady also mentions that Barberena has health issues and has been taken down frequently in recent fights.
Cody strongly favors Matt Brown, highlighting Barberena's declining durability and poor takedown defense. He notes Barberena's recent wars and losses, while Brown still has power and timing. He thinks Brown can win by KO or decision. He calls it his first bet of the week.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting he is biased as a fan. He believes Brown is the better fighter with more finishing ability and can mix in takedowns. He notes both fighters are on the decline but thinks Brown's power and hometown crowd will carry him. He is hesitant because of Brown's age and chin, and Barberena's durability. He also points out Barberena hasn't looked the same since the Luque fight.
The host picks Barberena, noting his youth, body punching (30% of strikes to body), and Matt Brown's known body vulnerability. He expects a striking battle and believes Barberena will get a knockout, possibly in round 3 as Brown slows down. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.
Paul picks Matt Brown, citing his wrestling advantage and Barberena's inability to stop takedowns. He notes Brown's hometown crowd and experience. He thinks Brown can grind out a win or land a big shot. He expects the line to move and hopes for plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown by second-round TKO over Bryan Barberena. He envisions Barberena slightly edging the first round before getting caught with a big overhand. The Guru trusts Brown's power and recent resurgence, noting his second-round finish of Diego Lima, while Barberena's wars may leave him vulnerable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 1 | 27 of 49 | 55% | 30 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dhiego Lima | 0 | 23 of 54 | 42% | 23 of 54 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dhiego Lima | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Matt Brown | 1 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 15 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dhiego Lima | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 27 of 49 | 55% | 12 of 27 | 11 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 22 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Dhiego Lima | 23 of 54 | 42% | 8 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 12 | 22 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 15 of 30 | 50% | 8 of 18 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dhiego Lima | 12 of 32 | 37% | 2 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 11 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Matt Brown | 12 of 19 | 63% | 4 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Dhiego Lima | 11 of 22 | 50% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Matt Brown as an underdog, citing Lima's brother's recent loss as a potential emotional distraction. He thinks Brown's toughness, power, and underrated wrestling could be factors. He is not confident and has no bets on the fight, but likes the over on strikes for both.
Big Brady picks the younger Lima, citing Brown's age (40) and 13 finished losses. He thinks Lima's leg kicks and youth will lead to a finish, but acknowledges Brown could knock Lima out. He recommends staying away from betting.
Cody picks Lima but is hesitant, noting Lima's questionable chin and recent split decisions. He acknowledges Matt Brown's early power but believes Brown's cardio and speed have declined. Cody thinks Lima's calf kicks and jab will allow him to pull away in later rounds, but he is not confident enough to bet.
Daniel Levi picks Dhiego Lima, citing youth and freshness. He notes that Matt Brown is 40 years old and his durability is declining, as seen in the Miguel Baeza fight where he was knocked out by punches for the first time. He believes Lima's calf kicks and left hook will be effective, and that he can either finish or win a decision. He respects Brown but thinks the age and recent performances favor Lima.
Jacob picks Dhiego Lima, expecting him to chew up Brown's legs with kicks and out-strike him. He thinks Brown's age and lack of volume will be issues. He has Lima in his lineup at $9,000 and believes Lima will dominate without a finish.
The host picks Dhiego Lima by decision, citing his calf kicks and striking advantage. He notes Lima's cardio issues in his last fight but believes he can implement a similar game plan to the Miguel Baeza fight, where calf kicks debilitated Brown. He thinks Lima can get in and out of exchanges and slow Brown down. He is not highly confident but sees Lima as the better fighter against the 40-year-old Brown, who may be on a three-fight skid.
Paul picks Lima, citing Lima's youth and striking advantage. He notes Brown's age (40) and declining cardio, and believes Lima can win by decision or late finish. Paul also bets under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish either way.
The MMA Guru picks Dhiego Lima to win by first-round TKO via lead hook. He believes Matt Brown has taken too much damage and will rush in with his hands down, allowing Lima to land a check hook similar to the one Miguel Baeza landed on Brown. He references Lima's previous lead hook KO of Chad Laprise and expects Lima to finish Brown at the end of the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 39 of 88 | 44% | 157 of 209 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 4:52 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 28 of 37 | 75% | 37 of 52 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 6:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 60 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:23 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 15 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:36 | |
| 2 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 58 of 83 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 3 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 39 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 8 of 8 | 100% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Condit | 39 of 88 | 44% | 30 of 73 | 4 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 22 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 15 |
| Matt Brown | 28 of 37 | 75% | 13 of 22 | 11 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 18 | 8 of 8 | 9 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Condit | 6 of 22 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Matt Brown | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 2 | Carlos Condit | 21 of 44 | 47% | 17 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Matt Brown | 11 of 15 | 73% | 3 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Condit | 12 of 22 | 54% | 10 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Matt Brown | 8 of 8 | 100% | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
Big Brady picks Carlos Condit to win inside the distance, specifically by second-round knockout. He notes Condit's 90% finish rate and that he has never been knocked out, while Brown has been knocked out three times and is weak to the body. He believes Brown's durability is not what it once was and that Condit can finish him. He also mentions that Brown has been submitted 10 times, but Condit's path is via knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown as a slight underdog, calling it a 50-55 fight. He notes Condit's last win over Court McGee was unimpressive, while Brown has knockout power and a history of finishing fights. He expects Condit to try to point-fight, but Brown's pressure and body shots could be key. He admits low confidence.
Matt Brown's pressure style is a bad matchup for Condit, who struggles when opponents stay in his face and take away his space. Brown will push forward, use dirty boxing, and grind Condit against the cage. Condit's takedown defense is poor and he often relies on his back, but Brown is not a submission threat. Condit's best chance is on the feet with kicks, but Brown's durability and pressure should earn him a decision. The line should be closer to even, so plus money on Brown is value.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Condit over Matt Brown, citing Condit's superior chin and striking. He notes Brown is losing his chin and coming off a TKO loss, while Condit has never been knocked out. He predicts Condit will win by third-round TKO once Brown gasses. He also mentions Condit's historical robbery against Robbie Lawler.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 33 of 61 | 54% | 33 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Matt Brown | 2 | 37 of 73 | 50% | 42 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Baeza | 0 | 33 of 59 | 55% | 33 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Matt Brown | 1 | 32 of 65 | 49% | 37 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Miguel Baeza | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Brown | 1 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Baeza | 33 of 61 | 54% | 25 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 44 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 37 of 73 | 50% | 21 of 54 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 12 | 29 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Baeza | 33 of 59 | 55% | 25 of 49 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 42 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 32 of 65 | 49% | 17 of 48 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 11 | 25 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | |
| 2 | Miguel Baeza | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza by first-round knockout, but is hesitant. He notes that Baeza's leg kicks are a huge factor and that Brown is dangerous on the feet and has a path to victory via takedowns. He compares the fight to the Askarov vs. Kelleher fight where an undefeated fighter got knocked out. He does not agree with Baeza being a -175 favorite and thinks the line should be closer.
Daniel Levi slightly leans with Matt Brown. He acknowledges that Miguel Baeza is super talented and could blow Brown out with a liver kick, but he thinks Brown will drag him into deep waters and drown him. He notes that Brown has historically been weak to the body but has been fighting with his hands down lately. He sees this as a good lesson for Baeza regardless.
The host picks Matt Brown, believing his veteran experience and pressure against the cage will overwhelm the undefeated Baeza. He thinks Baeza has not faced adversity and will struggle when things don't go his way. He predicts a TKO finish in the second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 40 of 59 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 7:34 |
| Ben Saunders | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 38 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 4 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Ben Saunders | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 4 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Matt Brown | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 30 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Ben Saunders | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 24 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 30 of 47 | 63% | 27 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 25 |
| Ben Saunders | 12 of 23 | 52% | 10 of 17 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 5 of 10 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Ben Saunders | 9 of 14 | 64% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 | |
| 2 | Matt Brown | 25 of 37 | 67% | 23 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 21 |
| Ben Saunders | 3 of 9 | 33% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 1 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Diego Sanchez | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 1 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Diego Sanchez | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 18 of 34 | 52% | 14 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 28 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Sanchez | 12 of 20 | 60% | 7 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 18 of 34 | 52% | 14 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 28 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Sanchez | 12 of 20 | 60% | 7 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Cerrone | 2 | 63 of 147 | 42% | 64 of 148 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Matt Brown | 1 | 70 of 128 | 54% | 73 of 131 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donald Cerrone | 0 | 34 of 72 | 47% | 35 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 27 of 63 | 42% | 29 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Donald Cerrone | 1 | 25 of 70 | 35% | 25 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Matt Brown | 1 | 41 of 60 | 68% | 42 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Donald Cerrone | 1 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Cerrone | 63 of 147 | 42% | 46 of 126 | 7 of 11 | 10 of 10 | 62 of 143 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 70 of 128 | 54% | 42 of 91 | 28 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 62 of 118 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donald Cerrone | 34 of 72 | 47% | 24 of 60 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 34 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 27 of 63 | 42% | 15 of 45 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Donald Cerrone | 25 of 70 | 35% | 19 of 62 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 66 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 41 of 60 | 68% | 26 of 43 | 15 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 35 of 53 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Donald Cerrone | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
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