UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · Dec 10, 2016 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis Next Fight
Age 43
Height 6' 1"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 45
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Donald Cerrone
4.41 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
4.48 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
1.16 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Matt Brown
3.76 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
2.92 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.68 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
1.3 Sub. Avg
Donald Cerrone - Fight History
LOSS vs Jim Miller
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 1:32 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 24 of 36 66% 35 of 48 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:03
Donald Cerrone 0 21 of 33 63% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 21 of 29 72% 32 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Donald Cerrone 0 17 of 26 65% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:08
2 Jim Miller 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 24 of 36 66% 16 of 28 6 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 27 0 of 0 7 of 9
Donald Cerrone 21 of 33 63% 12 of 20 6 of 8 3 of 5 21 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 21 of 29 72% 15 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 20 0 of 0 7 of 9
Donald Cerrone 17 of 26 65% 10 of 16 5 of 6 2 of 4 17 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 4 of 7 57% 2 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Angelo picks Jim Miller based on his recent knockout wins over prospects, while noting that Cerrone is stepping in on short notice and may not be in peak form. He acknowledges Cerrone's technical advantage but believes Miller's toughness and momentum give him the edge. He also mentions that Cerrone at +200 might be worth a small sprinkle.

Cerrone at +200 might be worth a couple dollar long shot
"I think i'm siding with jim miller here but the odds are kind of crazy donald cerrone is a two-to-one underdog and he might be worth a couple dollar sprinkle"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady is confident in Jim Miller, stating Donald Cerrone looks washed and doesn't want to be there. He notes Miller's power and first-round finishing ability, predicting a first-round knockout. He mentions Cerrone's recent struggles and weight cuts, while Miller is still active and motivated.

Miller by first round knockout
"give me uh jim miller to win jim miller to win my first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Cody thinks Miller's improved boxing and fast starts will overwhelm Cerrone, who has looked poor recently. He notes Miller's wrestling and submissions are also threats. He expects Miller to finish early.

"I think Jim Miller gets the pounce on him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Daniel Levi leans toward Donald Cerrone as the underdog, citing the price (+165) and the fact that Cerrone has beaten Miller before via head kick. He notes that Miller tends to slow down after the first round, and if Cerrone can weather the early storm, he can take over. Levi acknowledges that Cerrone is past his prime and has lost to lesser opponents, but he sees value in the dog price. He does not bet it himself.

Dog-or-pass; price is everything; no bet.
"i'm gonna lean with cowboy because of the price man plus 165"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Cerrone is the better fighter with more tools, and the line is too wide. Miller is a quick starter but if he doesn't finish early, Cerrone takes over. Cerrone at 170 lbs benefits him. The host predicts Cerrone by decision, noting Miller's cardio is not as bad as some claim.

Cerrone round 3/decision double chance
"i think the line is whack i think this should be closer to it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is torn, calling it a 50-50 fight. He likes Cerrone's chances if he survives the first round, especially at welterweight, but won't bet Miller at -185. He might sprinkle on a Cerrone late finish prop.

Cerrone round 3 +1600
"I don't know if I'm gonna get to Cerrone"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Donald Cerrone as an underdog, citing the fight being at welterweight where Cerrone won't have to cut as much weight, preserving his chin and cardio. He thinks Miller's power may not translate up a division and that Cerrone can survive the first round and rally in later rounds. He calls it a 50/50 fight and predicts a 29-28 decision for Cerrone.

underdog pick, fight of the night performance
"i'm gonna actually go with donald cerrone here in an underdog pick i think at 170 he shouldn't be that big of an underdog and this is a 50 50."
LOSS vs Alex Morono
TKO (punches) R1 4:40 · UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 08, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 17 of 35 48% 18 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Donald Cerrone 0 35 of 84 41% 41 of 90 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 17 of 35 48% 18 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Donald Cerrone 0 35 of 84 41% 41 of 90 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 17 of 35 48% 5 of 23 10 of 10 2 of 2 16 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 35 of 84 41% 28 of 74 5 of 7 2 of 3 30 of 73 5 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 17 of 35 48% 5 of 23 10 of 10 2 of 2 16 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 35 of 84 41% 28 of 74 5 of 7 2 of 3 30 of 73 5 of 11 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Big Brady believes Cerrone is the better fighter everywhere, despite being past his prime. He notes Cerrone has fought much better competition and should have an edge on the feet and on the mat. Brady thinks Cerrone can mix in takedowns against Morono's poor takedown defense (47%). He predicts a decision win for Cerrone but says the line at -185 is too high to bet. He acknowledges Morono's high volume but thinks Cerrone's level of competition gives him the edge.

Cerrone by decision
"I'm gonna take cerrone yeah definitely not betting it especially where the line's at now i'm gonna take him to win by decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Daniel Levi picks Donald Cerrone, stating there are levels to this and Morono is not a top 25 guy. He highlights Cerrone's superior striking, grappling, and cardio, and notes Morono's inability to get up from bottom. He expects Cerrone to outclass Morono, possibly via blast double or high kick, and predicts a decision win. He mentions Cerrone's durability in the Nico Price fight as a positive sign.

"i still think there's levels to this [ __ ] man and cerrone's on a completely different level striking grappling cardio"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Donald Cerrone

The host is confident in Donald Cerrone, believing he has advantages in striking, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu. He expects Cerrone to piece up Morono and win a decision, noting Morono's cardio issues and short notice. He likes Cerrone by decision prop.

Cerrone by decision +145
"i think that cerrone can have his way in striking or the grappling but i don't know that it finished necessarily materializes"
LOSS vs Niko Price
No Contest (overturned) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Sep 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Donald Cerrone 0 113 of 230 49% 113 of 230 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:50
Niko Price 0 150 of 312 48% 167 of 330 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Donald Cerrone 0 37 of 66 56% 37 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Niko Price 0 55 of 115 47% 63 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
2 Donald Cerrone 0 38 of 89 42% 38 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Niko Price 0 57 of 112 50% 57 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Donald Cerrone 0 38 of 75 50% 38 of 75 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:50
Niko Price 0 38 of 85 44% 47 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Donald Cerrone 113 of 230 49% 69 of 181 38 of 43 6 of 6 101 of 216 11 of 13 1 of 1
Niko Price 150 of 312 48% 80 of 225 30 of 42 40 of 45 129 of 284 18 of 24 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Donald Cerrone 37 of 66 56% 20 of 49 13 of 13 4 of 4 27 of 54 10 of 12 0 of 0
Niko Price 55 of 115 47% 40 of 96 11 of 13 4 of 6 38 of 93 17 of 22 0 of 0
2 Donald Cerrone 38 of 89 42% 22 of 69 15 of 19 1 of 1 38 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
Niko Price 57 of 112 50% 21 of 68 17 of 23 19 of 21 56 of 111 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Donald Cerrone 38 of 75 50% 27 of 63 10 of 11 1 of 1 36 of 73 1 of 1 1 of 1
Niko Price 38 of 85 44% 19 of 61 2 of 6 17 of 18 35 of 80 0 of 1 3 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Big Brady picks Niko Price, citing Cerrone's decline and recent knockout losses to top competition. He notes Price is faster and a slow starter, while Cerrone has taken a lot of damage. He expects Price to get a first-round knockout, though he admits Cerrone is better on paper everywhere except durability.

Price by knockout
"give me nico price to get a knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

The host believes Niko Price's power and explosiveness will be too much for Donald Cerrone, who is on a losing streak and has shown durability issues. He notes Price's ability to finish from any position and Cerrone's tendency to get stopped early. He predicts a first-round KO for Price, and likes the under 1.5 rounds at -105.

Niko Price wins by KO in round 1 +275; under 1.5 rounds -105; Niko Price inside distance -115
"I'm gonna take price to win this and i truly think he gets it done in the first round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Niko Price

The host picks Niko Price over Donald Cerrone, citing Price's size, power, and ability to start fast. He notes that Cerrone has struggled against fighters who come out aggressively, and that Price was competitive against Vicente Luque. He predicts a KO win for Price.

KO win
"I'm gonna go with nico price getting a ko win."
LOSS vs Anthony Pettis
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Pettis 0 63 of 113 55% 81 of 133 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 62 of 148 41% 62 of 148 2 of 8 25% 0 0 1:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Pettis 0 15 of 27 55% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 17 of 31 54% 17 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:00
2 Anthony Pettis 0 21 of 38 55% 33 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:38
3 Anthony Pettis 0 27 of 48 56% 27 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 25 of 65 38% 25 of 65 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Pettis 63 of 113 55% 44 of 84 10 of 18 9 of 11 60 of 110 1 of 1 2 of 2
Donald Cerrone 62 of 148 41% 31 of 112 18 of 22 13 of 14 59 of 143 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Pettis 15 of 27 55% 7 of 13 4 of 8 4 of 6 13 of 25 0 of 0 2 of 2
Donald Cerrone 17 of 31 54% 10 of 23 5 of 5 2 of 3 16 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Anthony Pettis 21 of 38 55% 13 of 28 4 of 6 4 of 4 21 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 20 of 52 38% 8 of 38 5 of 7 7 of 7 19 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Anthony Pettis 27 of 48 56% 24 of 43 2 of 4 1 of 1 26 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 25 of 65 38% 13 of 51 8 of 10 4 of 4 24 of 62 1 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Big Brady picks Donald Cerrone, but with low confidence. He notes both fighters are past their prime and have shown signs of quitting. He believes Cerrone has a step down in competition and more heart, but worries about his durability. He predicts a decision win for Cerrone.

Cerrone by decision
"I'm going to go with Cerrone here. Um both these fighters are like out of their prime for sure. ... I think Cerrone has a little bit more left in the tank than Pettis."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Daniel Levi picks Donald Cerrone, arguing that Pettis is not the same fighter as in 2013 and lacks sustainability. He believes if Cerrone avoids an early fight-ending blow, he will take over with takedowns and pressure. Levi notes that Cerrone is a slow starter but should dominate if he gets to the second round, and that Pettis tends to quit when pressured.

Cerrone by decision or finish
"I think if he avoids taking a fight ending blow in the early going he will eventually begin to take over the fight mix in takedowns along the way and either edge of decision or finish Pettis along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Pettis

Matt picks Pettis but is not confident, citing both fighters' mental fragility and recent losses. He thinks Pettis can establish pressure and leg kicks early to get a finish, but he doesn't trust either guy. He calls the fight a pass for betting and suggests Cerrone as the value side if forced to bet.

Pettis by second-round TKO, best bet is Cerrone for value
"I am gonna pick Paris I can't believe I'm doing it I'm picking Pettis to win but in terms of betting I'm not trusting him"
LOSS vs Conor McGregor
TKO (head kick and punches) R1 0:40 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Conor McGregor 1 19 of 26 73% 20 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Donald Cerrone 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Conor McGregor 1 19 of 26 73% 20 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Donald Cerrone 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Conor McGregor 19 of 26 73% 19 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 3 of 3 13 of 16
Donald Cerrone 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Conor McGregor 19 of 26 73% 19 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 3 of 3 13 of 16
Donald Cerrone 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Daniel picks Conor McGregor to win by knockout, likely in the first round. He notes that McGregor's left hand is a huge factor and that Cerrone has historically folded under big lights. However, he questions McGregor's motivation and fatigue issues, but believes this is a tune-up fight for McGregor.

first round knockout
"I think McGregor is gonna come in fresh... I think he gets the win by knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

The host picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round KO, citing McGregor's range, speed, in-and-out movement, and left hand as key advantages. He believes Cerrone will struggle to deal with these attributes and that McGregor will set up a trap and land a clean left hand. However, he notes that if Cerrone's odds reach +300, he might place a small bet on Cerrone due to value, but his official prediction remains McGregor by first-round KO.

If Cerrone hits +300, might take a bet on Cerrone; under 1.5 rounds at +105 considered; McGregor by KO at -210 considered too steep; official pick is McGregor by first-round KO.
"my official pick'em my prediction is gonna be cornered by first round KO"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2020 (12 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

The host strongly favors Conor McGregor, citing his first-round focus and accuracy against Donald Cerrone's lack of head movement and slow starts. He notes Cerrone's recent KO loss to Justin Gaethje and the short turnaround (4 months), which raises chin concerns. He believes McGregor's takedown defense is underrated and that Cerrone's wrestling won't be effective. He predicts a first-round KO by McGregor.

first round KO
"I think Conor McGregor gets it done in the first round by KO viciously viciously"
LOSS vs Justin Gaethje
TKO (punches) R1 4:18 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Sep 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Gaethje 0 17 of 52 32% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 1 40 of 61 65% 40 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Gaethje 0 17 of 52 32% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 1 40 of 61 65% 40 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Gaethje 17 of 52 32% 12 of 45 4 of 6 1 of 1 17 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 40 of 61 65% 27 of 44 0 of 2 13 of 15 36 of 55 2 of 3 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Gaethje 17 of 52 32% 12 of 45 4 of 6 1 of 1 17 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 40 of 61 65% 27 of 44 0 of 2 13 of 15 36 of 55 2 of 3 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Donald Cerrone vs. Justin Gaethje

Round 1
The main event is here, between two men that have combined for 24 post-fight bonuses, as Cerrone (36-12, 1 NC; 23-9 UFC) tussles with Gaethje (20-2, 3-2 UFC) at lightweight. The referee for this headliner that virtually guarantees action is Jerin Valel. The two touch gloves and we are underway. Cerrone starts with a push kick to the body, and Gaethje replies with a few sharp leg kicks. Gaethje whiffs on another leg kick, and Cerrone brings his knee up to check them. Gaethje presses forward and swings wildly, but nothing connects of significance. Gaethje ducks down to throw a big right hand and misses, but he does crack him with another few leg kicks for good measure. "The Highlight" tags Cerrone coming on, and backs way while launching a few more leg kicks, although "Cowboy" is starting to check them. Gaethje swings with all he has and "Cowboy" barely evades it, and tying up Gaethje tags Cerrone again. Cerrone leaps forward with a left hand, and then throws his own leg kick. A three-punch combination from "Cowboy" lands, and Gaethje cracks him with a counter left hand. As Gaethje swings, Cerrone responds with a body kick. The two men crash together, and Gaethje gets the better of this exchange. "Cowboy" ducks down and Gaethje times an uppercut, and then throws another leg kick that appears to stymie the movement of Cerrone slightly.
Gaethje blasts "Cowboy" right a right hand when coming in, halting the Colorado native in his tracks and dropping him to a knee. Gaethje cracks him with a few more short shots, until "Cowboy" falls to the ground
. "The Highlight" looks to Valel for a stoppage, but he does not get it so he clubs Cerrone with a few more punches until Valel calls the fight. Cerrone pops back up and protests the stoppage, but the fight is over. On the post-fight interview, the two celebrate and Cerrone is all smiles as he congratulates the victor.

The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Donald Cerrone R1 4:18 via TKO (Punches)
LOSS vs Tony Ferguson
TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · Jun 08, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tony Ferguson 0 104 of 200 52% 104 of 200 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 68 of 185 36% 68 of 185 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tony Ferguson 0 52 of 104 50% 52 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 38 of 95 40% 38 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tony Ferguson 0 52 of 96 54% 52 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 30 of 90 33% 30 of 90 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tony Ferguson 104 of 200 52% 65 of 144 25 of 37 14 of 19 103 of 198 1 of 2 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 68 of 185 36% 43 of 152 15 of 23 10 of 10 68 of 184 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tony Ferguson 52 of 104 50% 31 of 76 14 of 20 7 of 8 51 of 102 1 of 2 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 38 of 95 40% 28 of 82 6 of 9 4 of 4 38 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tony Ferguson 52 of 96 54% 34 of 68 11 of 17 7 of 11 52 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 30 of 90 33% 15 of 70 9 of 14 6 of 6 30 of 89 0 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Al Iaquinta
Decision (unanimous) (49–45, 49–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · May 04, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Donald Cerrone 0 90 of 223 40% 90 of 223 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 2 138 of 361 38% 140 of 363 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Donald Cerrone 0 19 of 58 32% 19 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 0 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Donald Cerrone 0 24 of 59 40% 24 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 0 21 of 68 30% 21 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Donald Cerrone 0 18 of 39 46% 18 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 1 28 of 78 35% 29 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
4 Donald Cerrone 0 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 1 26 of 72 36% 27 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
5 Donald Cerrone 0 20 of 47 42% 20 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Al Iaquinta 0 43 of 98 43% 43 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Donald Cerrone 90 of 223 40% 49 of 165 23 of 38 18 of 20 90 of 223 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 138 of 361 38% 87 of 302 17 of 25 34 of 34 129 of 344 3 of 3 6 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Donald Cerrone 19 of 58 32% 10 of 42 6 of 12 3 of 4 19 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 20 of 45 44% 12 of 35 3 of 5 5 of 5 20 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Donald Cerrone 24 of 59 40% 11 of 41 5 of 9 8 of 9 24 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 21 of 68 30% 11 of 57 3 of 4 7 of 7 21 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Donald Cerrone 18 of 39 46% 9 of 29 5 of 6 4 of 4 18 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 28 of 78 35% 15 of 64 6 of 7 7 of 7 25 of 69 0 of 0 3 of 9
4 Donald Cerrone 9 of 20 45% 6 of 15 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 26 of 72 36% 17 of 61 3 of 5 6 of 6 21 of 65 3 of 3 2 of 4
5 Donald Cerrone 20 of 47 42% 13 of 38 4 of 6 3 of 3 20 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Al Iaquinta 43 of 98 43% 32 of 85 2 of 4 9 of 9 42 of 97 0 of 0 1 of 1
Matt Brown - Fight History
WIN vs Court McGee
KO (punch) R1 4:09 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 11 of 15 73% 22 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 8 of 31 25% 17 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 1 11 of 15 73% 22 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 8 of 31 25% 17 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 2 of 4 3 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Court McGee 8 of 31 25% 2 of 21 2 of 5 4 of 5 6 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 2 of 4 3 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Court McGee 8 of 31 25% 2 of 21 2 of 5 4 of 5 6 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Angelo picks Matt Brown, saying he thinks Brown will be the more durable of the two. He notes Court McGee is coming off a bad knockout loss and his chin is a question. He acknowledges the line movement tracker shows McGee went from +140 to -180 favorite, and that trend has been 7-1, but he goes against it. He is not betting on this fight.

"I'm still going to lean Matt Brown I'm gonna go against that Trend there but no bet absolutely no bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Court McGee

Big Brady picks Court McGee but expresses distrust after McGee's fight against Condit where he didn't attempt a single takedown. He believes if McGee uses the right game plan—wrestling and taking down Matt Brown—he should win easily. Brady notes Brown is 42 with poor takedown defense and cardio, and McGee has better cardio and wrestling. He predicts a third-round submission, but says he can't fully trust McGee after the Condit fight.

third round submission
"I'll say he does do that I'll say he goes out there takes down Matt Brown rents the repeat and grinds this guy across three rounds maybe even a late finish could be on the table here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Cody picks McGee, citing his better gas tank and durability. He notes that Brown's chin and reflexes have declined with age, and that McGee's kickboxing is good enough to compete. He expects McGee to wrestle and control the fight, especially in later rounds. He mentions the 'died and came back' theory for cardio.

"I got to go with the durability and the cardio which both still favor Court McGee so I too will take Court McGee but uh it's an old man Legends fight which I am so down for"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Court McGee

Connor leans toward Court McGee, acknowledging that Matt Brown could knock him out early but that McGee's durability and pace are likely to carry him. He notes that Brown's endurance has declined and that McGee's grinding style is antithetical to Brown's current capabilities. Connor expects McGee to win by decision, as Brown's recent fights show he fades.

"I think I just have to lean McGee, like sure. Matt Brown could knock him out in the first round, right?"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting bias as he will attend the fight and is a fan. He believes Brown is historically the better fighter, having reached number five in the welterweight rankings, while McGee never cracked the top 15. However, he acknowledges Brown's age (42) and cardio issues, which could allow McGee to push the pace and mix in takedowns. Levi hopes Brown gets a knockout to tie the UFC record, but notes the pick is not based on a betting edge.

Brown by KO to tie UFC knockout record; no bet placed
"I'm gonna pick Matt Brown uh just because historically speaking I think he wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Court McGee

McGee has a cardio and pace advantage over the aging Brown. He will tie Brown up, use footwork to avoid big shots, and weaponize his cardio to take over in the later rounds. Brown has slowed down in recent fights and his wrestling may not be effective against McGee. McGee will grind out a decision victory.

"I think Court McGee will do a good job of tying him up using his but you know footwork and bicycle to get out of the way of these big shots of Matt Brown"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes that McGee can make the fight easy by sticking to takedowns and controlling Brown. He added McGee to a chalk parlay. He acknowledges the possibility of a 'gentleman's agreement' striking affair but believes McGee's grappling is the key.

added to parlay with Garry and Ulberg
"I think Court McGee can make this fight very easy on himself by sticking to the wrestling getting up in Matt Brown's face and getting takedowns and securing them and holding in position"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Matt Brown

The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown, citing his better recent performances and the fact that Court McGee is coming off a brutal KO loss. He believes Brown's toughness and aggression will be too much, predicting a KO in the second or third round.

KO in the second or third round
"I'm actually going to pick Matt Brown by KO in the second or third round here against Court mcgear"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Court McGee

Zane picks Court McGee because he believes McGee's pace and grinding style will overwhelm Matt Brown, who fades as fights progress. He notes that Brown is still dangerous early but lacks the endurance to keep up with McGee's constant pressure and wrestling. Zane expects McGee to win a decision, as Brown's recent losses show he slows down significantly.

"I guess I'll take court McGee just cause one round of chance from exactly."
LOSS vs Bryan Barberena
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryan Barberena 0 81 of 129 62% 95 of 145 5 of 7 71% 0 0 5:01
Matt Brown 0 111 of 211 52% 186 of 289 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryan Barberena 0 23 of 37 62% 25 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:39
Matt Brown 0 23 of 51 45% 62 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Bryan Barberena 0 23 of 36 63% 29 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:45
Matt Brown 0 35 of 60 58% 59 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:30
3 Bryan Barberena 0 35 of 56 62% 41 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:37
Matt Brown 0 53 of 100 53% 65 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryan Barberena 81 of 129 62% 36 of 75 38 of 44 7 of 10 51 of 95 24 of 28 6 of 6
Matt Brown 111 of 211 52% 82 of 170 12 of 18 17 of 23 78 of 164 28 of 42 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryan Barberena 23 of 37 62% 8 of 21 12 of 12 3 of 4 9 of 22 11 of 12 3 of 3
Matt Brown 23 of 51 45% 13 of 36 2 of 4 8 of 11 19 of 46 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Bryan Barberena 23 of 36 63% 9 of 20 12 of 14 2 of 2 17 of 29 6 of 7 0 of 0
Matt Brown 35 of 60 58% 26 of 47 2 of 3 7 of 10 23 of 45 7 of 10 5 of 5
3 Bryan Barberena 35 of 56 62% 19 of 34 14 of 18 2 of 4 25 of 44 7 of 9 3 of 3
Matt Brown 53 of 100 53% 43 of 87 8 of 11 2 of 2 36 of 73 17 of 27 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

Angelo picks Bryan Barberena, citing his durability, impressive volume, and forward pressure. He notes Barberena landed 108 strikes in his last fight and 169 against Vicente Luque. He thinks Barberena's constant volume will be the difference and expects a decision win. He says he probably won't bet on this fight.

"i need to go with brian barnard here he's incredibly durable his volume is impressive"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Big Brady picks Matt Brown to knock out Bryan Barberena in the first or second round. He believes Barberena is washed after the Luke fight, citing poor takedown defense and being dropped twice by Jason Witt. He notes that Brown still has power, as shown in his last fight against Lima, and that Barberena's chin is no longer reliable. Brady also mentions that Barberena has health issues and has been taken down frequently in recent fights.

Matt Brown wins by KO in round 1 or 2
"I'm gonna take the the 41 year old here to actually knock out brian barbarino we see that matt brown still has that power in his hands with his knockout in his last fight against lima."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Cody strongly favors Matt Brown, highlighting Barberena's declining durability and poor takedown defense. He notes Barberena's recent wars and losses, while Brown still has power and timing. He thinks Brown can win by KO or decision. He calls it his first bet of the week.

first bet of the week
"i'm actually gonna go towards the brown side of this one"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting he is biased as a fan. He believes Brown is the better fighter with more finishing ability and can mix in takedowns. He notes both fighters are on the decline but thinks Brown's power and hometown crowd will carry him. He is hesitant because of Brown's age and chin, and Barberena's durability. He also points out Barberena hasn't looked the same since the Luque fight.

"I'm still gonna go with matt brown here guys... I think he's going to be buoyed by this crowd"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

The host picks Barberena, noting his youth, body punching (30% of strikes to body), and Matt Brown's known body vulnerability. He expects a striking battle and believes Barberena will get a knockout, possibly in round 3 as Brown slows down. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.

Barberena inside the distance at +315; fight doesn't go to decision at -130 to -140; Barberena round 3 at +1050
"i'm gonna go brian barber arena as the pick but rather than picking a side here again the odds are great on either side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Paul picks Matt Brown, citing his wrestling advantage and Barberena's inability to stop takedowns. He notes Brown's hometown crowd and experience. He thinks Brown can grind out a win or land a big shot. He expects the line to move and hopes for plus money.

"i'm gonna pick matt brown but i'm very interested to hear what you got"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown by second-round TKO over Bryan Barberena. He envisions Barberena slightly edging the first round before getting caught with a big overhand. The Guru trusts Brown's power and recent resurgence, noting his second-round finish of Diego Lima, while Barberena's wars may leave him vulnerable.

second round tko
"i'm gonna go with matt the immortal brown my boy"
WIN vs Dhiego Lima
KO (punch) R2 3:02 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 27 of 49 55% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dhiego Lima 0 23 of 54 42% 23 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dhiego Lima 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Matt Brown 1 12 of 19 63% 15 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dhiego Lima 0 11 of 22 50% 11 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 27 of 49 55% 12 of 27 11 of 17 4 of 5 22 of 44 5 of 5 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 23 of 54 42% 8 of 38 4 of 4 11 of 12 22 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 15 of 30 50% 8 of 18 4 of 8 3 of 4 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 12 of 32 37% 2 of 21 2 of 2 8 of 9 11 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Matt Brown 12 of 19 63% 4 of 9 7 of 9 1 of 1 7 of 14 5 of 5 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 11 of 22 50% 6 of 17 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Angelo picks Matt Brown as an underdog, citing Lima's brother's recent loss as a potential emotional distraction. He thinks Brown's toughness, power, and underrated wrestling could be factors. He is not confident and has no bets on the fight, but likes the over on strikes for both.

monkey knife fight: more more (max play)
"i have matt brown winning this fight it is not the most confident pick i've ever had."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Big Brady picks the younger Lima, citing Brown's age (40) and 13 finished losses. He thinks Lima's leg kicks and youth will lead to a finish, but acknowledges Brown could knock Lima out. He recommends staying away from betting.

win by KO
"I will take the younger fighter in diego lima to get it done I'll say bye knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Cody picks Lima but is hesitant, noting Lima's questionable chin and recent split decisions. He acknowledges Matt Brown's early power but believes Brown's cardio and speed have declined. Cody thinks Lima's calf kicks and jab will allow him to pull away in later rounds, but he is not confident enough to bet.

"i think i gotta take the coward's way out and probably go with diego lima you know again i just i i don't love betting on these guys at this stage of their career"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Daniel Levi picks Dhiego Lima, citing youth and freshness. He notes that Matt Brown is 40 years old and his durability is declining, as seen in the Miguel Baeza fight where he was knocked out by punches for the first time. He believes Lima's calf kicks and left hook will be effective, and that he can either finish or win a decision. He respects Brown but thinks the age and recent performances favor Lima.

"i'm gonna go with diego lima by being the younger fresher guy i think he chops him down with calf kicks and maybe finds a left hook finish"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Jacob picks Dhiego Lima, expecting him to chew up Brown's legs with kicks and out-strike him. He thinks Brown's age and lack of volume will be issues. He has Lima in his lineup at $9,000 and believes Lima will dominate without a finish.

"i am picking diego he's in my lineup."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

The host picks Dhiego Lima by decision, citing his calf kicks and striking advantage. He notes Lima's cardio issues in his last fight but believes he can implement a similar game plan to the Miguel Baeza fight, where calf kicks debilitated Brown. He thinks Lima can get in and out of exchanges and slow Brown down. He is not highly confident but sees Lima as the better fighter against the 40-year-old Brown, who may be on a three-fight skid.

Lima by decision at +150; over 2.5 rounds at -130 mentioned as live; Lima by KO at +400 noted
"i'll go with diego lima to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Paul picks Lima, citing Lima's youth and striking advantage. He notes Brown's age (40) and declining cardio, and believes Lima can win by decision or late finish. Paul also bets under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish either way.

under 2.5 rounds +120
"i'll pick diego lima to win this fight diego or diego lima maybe in rounds two or three i guess is where i would go"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Dhiego Lima

The MMA Guru picks Dhiego Lima to win by first-round TKO via lead hook. He believes Matt Brown has taken too much damage and will rush in with his hands down, allowing Lima to land a check hook similar to the one Miguel Baeza landed on Brown. He references Lima's previous lead hook KO of Chad Laprise and expects Lima to finish Brown at the end of the first round.

lead hook KO, first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with diego lima i'm gonna go the lead hook ko... finish him at the end of the first round by tko"
LOSS vs Carlos Condit
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar · Jan 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Condit 0 39 of 88 44% 157 of 209 2 of 4 50% 0 1 4:52
Matt Brown 0 28 of 37 75% 37 of 52 1 of 6 16% 0 0 6:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Condit 0 6 of 22 27% 60 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:23
Matt Brown 0 9 of 14 64% 15 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:36
2 Carlos Condit 0 21 of 44 47% 58 of 83 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:25
Matt Brown 0 11 of 15 73% 12 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:37
3 Carlos Condit 0 12 of 22 54% 39 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:04
Matt Brown 0 8 of 8 100% 10 of 13 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Condit 39 of 88 44% 30 of 73 4 of 8 5 of 7 22 of 68 5 of 5 12 of 15
Matt Brown 28 of 37 75% 13 of 22 11 of 11 4 of 4 11 of 18 8 of 8 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Condit 6 of 22 27% 3 of 16 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 5
Matt Brown 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 7
2 Carlos Condit 21 of 44 47% 17 of 38 2 of 3 2 of 3 14 of 36 0 of 0 7 of 8
Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 3 of 7 6 of 6 2 of 2 6 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Carlos Condit 12 of 22 54% 10 of 19 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 15 5 of 5 2 of 2
Matt Brown 8 of 8 100% 4 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Big Brady picks Carlos Condit to win inside the distance, specifically by second-round knockout. He notes Condit's 90% finish rate and that he has never been knocked out, while Brown has been knocked out three times and is weak to the body. He believes Brown's durability is not what it once was and that Condit can finish him. He also mentions that Brown has been submitted 10 times, but Condit's path is via knockout.

second round knockout
"i'm going to say second round knockout for condit there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown as a slight underdog, calling it a 50-55 fight. He notes Condit's last win over Court McGee was unimpressive, while Brown has knockout power and a history of finishing fights. He expects Condit to try to point-fight, but Brown's pressure and body shots could be key. He admits low confidence.

"i'll take the plus 145 dog i'll go with matt brown"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Matt Brown's pressure style is a bad matchup for Condit, who struggles when opponents stay in his face and take away his space. Brown will push forward, use dirty boxing, and grind Condit against the cage. Condit's takedown defense is poor and he often relies on his back, but Brown is not a submission threat. Condit's best chance is on the feet with kicks, but Brown's durability and pressure should earn him a decision. The line should be closer to even, so plus money on Brown is value.

Matt Brown by decision is the most likely outcome; a TKO is possible but less likely given Condit's durability.
"I think matt brown given his style and what we've seen from him as of late... i would line it a little bit closer to an even type of fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Condit over Matt Brown, citing Condit's superior chin and striking. He notes Brown is losing his chin and coming off a TKO loss, while Condit has never been knocked out. He predicts Condit will win by third-round TKO once Brown gasses. He also mentions Condit's historical robbery against Robbie Lawler.

third round TKO
"i'm gonna go with carlos condit's chin sticking with him in this fight and him getting a tko finish in the third round once matt brown starts to gas a little bit from the stand up"
LOSS vs Miguel Baeza
TKO (punches) R2 0:18 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miguel Baeza 0 33 of 61 54% 33 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Matt Brown 2 37 of 73 50% 42 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miguel Baeza 0 33 of 59 55% 33 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Matt Brown 1 32 of 65 49% 37 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
2 Miguel Baeza 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matt Brown 1 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miguel Baeza 33 of 61 54% 25 of 51 8 of 10 0 of 0 21 of 44 12 of 17 0 of 0
Matt Brown 37 of 73 50% 21 of 54 5 of 7 11 of 12 29 of 62 1 of 2 7 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miguel Baeza 33 of 59 55% 25 of 49 8 of 10 0 of 0 21 of 42 12 of 17 0 of 0
Matt Brown 32 of 65 49% 17 of 48 5 of 6 10 of 11 25 of 56 1 of 2 6 of 7
2 Miguel Baeza 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Brown 5 of 8 62% 4 of 6 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Miguel Baeza

Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza by first-round knockout, but is hesitant. He notes that Baeza's leg kicks are a huge factor and that Brown is dangerous on the feet and has a path to victory via takedowns. He compares the fight to the Askarov vs. Kelleher fight where an undefeated fighter got knocked out. He does not agree with Baeza being a -175 favorite and thinks the line should be closer.

first-round knockout, leg kicks, underdog +155 for Brown
"I am going with by aiza and I'll tell you why but you cannot count on Matt Brown... I'm going with by Asia I'm gonna go by first-round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 16, 2020 (fight day)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi slightly leans with Matt Brown. He acknowledges that Miguel Baeza is super talented and could blow Brown out with a liver kick, but he thinks Brown will drag him into deep waters and drown him. He notes that Brown has historically been weak to the body but has been fighting with his hands down lately. He sees this as a good lesson for Baeza regardless.

"I'm gonna slightly lean with Matt Brown here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Matt Brown

The host picks Matt Brown, believing his veteran experience and pressure against the cage will overwhelm the undefeated Baeza. He thinks Baeza has not faced adversity and will struggle when things don't go his way. He predicts a TKO finish in the second or third round.

Matt Brown by TKO in the second or third round
"I think Matt Brown is gonna get this done maybe by finishing the second or third round I'll go with that TKO Matt Brown third or second round finish"
WIN vs Ben Saunders
KO (elbows and punches) R2 4:55 · UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Dec 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 0 30 of 47 63% 40 of 59 2 of 3 66% 0 0 7:34
Ben Saunders 0 12 of 23 52% 38 of 49 0 of 0 --- 4 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 0 5 of 10 50% 10 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:08
Ben Saunders 0 9 of 14 64% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 4 0 0:00
2 Matt Brown 0 25 of 37 67% 30 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:26
Ben Saunders 0 3 of 9 33% 24 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 30 of 47 63% 27 of 43 2 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 20 2 of 2 18 of 25
Ben Saunders 12 of 23 52% 10 of 17 2 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 5 of 10 50% 4 of 8 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 4
Ben Saunders 9 of 14 64% 9 of 12 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 8
2 Matt Brown 25 of 37 67% 23 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 14 2 of 2 16 of 21
Ben Saunders 3 of 9 33% 1 of 5 2 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Diego Sanchez
KO (elbow) R1 3:44 · UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Nov 11, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 18 of 34 52% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Diego Sanchez 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 1 18 of 34 52% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Diego Sanchez 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 18 of 34 52% 14 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 28 6 of 6 0 of 0
Diego Sanchez 12 of 20 60% 7 of 12 2 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 18 of 34 52% 14 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 28 6 of 6 0 of 0
Diego Sanchez 12 of 20 60% 7 of 12 2 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
LOSS vs Donald Cerrone
KO (Head Kick) R3 0:34 · UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · Dec 10, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Donald Cerrone 2 63 of 147 42% 64 of 148 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:35
Matt Brown 1 70 of 128 54% 73 of 131 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Donald Cerrone 0 34 of 72 47% 35 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Matt Brown 0 27 of 63 42% 29 of 65 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Donald Cerrone 1 25 of 70 35% 25 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Matt Brown 1 41 of 60 68% 42 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
3 Donald Cerrone 1 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Matt Brown 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Donald Cerrone 63 of 147 42% 46 of 126 7 of 11 10 of 10 62 of 143 1 of 4 0 of 0
Matt Brown 70 of 128 54% 42 of 91 28 of 36 0 of 1 62 of 118 8 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Donald Cerrone 34 of 72 47% 24 of 60 4 of 6 6 of 6 34 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Brown 27 of 63 42% 15 of 45 12 of 18 0 of 0 25 of 60 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Donald Cerrone 25 of 70 35% 19 of 62 3 of 5 3 of 3 24 of 66 1 of 4 0 of 0
Matt Brown 41 of 60 68% 26 of 43 15 of 16 0 of 1 35 of 53 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Donald Cerrone 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Brown 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0