Career Averages - Tony Ferguson
Career Averages - Rafael dos Anjos
Tony Ferguson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 4 of 25 | 16% | 4 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 4 of 25 | 16% | 4 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 10 of 18 | 55% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 4 of 25 | 16% | 3 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 10 of 18 | 55% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 4 of 25 | 16% | 3 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Chiesa, calling Ferguson's seven-fight losing streak and CTE concerns. He thinks Chiesa's takedowns and top pressure will be too much for the faded Ferguson, who hasn't looked good in years. He says Chiesa at -400 should be -1500.
Big Brady thinks this fight should not be sanctioned due to Ferguson's seven-fight skid and brutal losses. He notes Ferguson has been submitted by Bobby Green and Nate Diaz, and Chiesa has been submitted five times but has three d'arce choke losses. He predicts Chiesa will take Ferguson down and finish him by first-round submission, but also mentions a sprinkle on Ferguson by submission at +1400 as a prop.
Cody picks Tony Ferguson as a wild underdog, citing Chiesa's poor cardio, tendency to get submitted, and mental lapses. He notes that Ferguson has incredible durability and confidence, and that Chiesa has been submitted by lesser grapplers. Cody thinks Ferguson can win by volume or submission if Chiesa tires. He acknowledges it's a risky bet but feels the line is too wide.
Daniel refuses to pick a winner in this fight. He considers Chiesa a bully who can't take adversity and is overpriced at -750, while Ferguson is a shell of his former self on a seven-fight losing streak. He calls it a pass and says he won't pick either fighter.
Chiesa has the grappling to keep Ferguson on his back, but he has been submitted in five of seven losses. I lean Chiesa by decision, but would not tie -610 to any parlays. The value is on Ferguson by submission at +1200.
Paul picks Tony Ferguson, noting that Chiesa is a -700 favorite but has lost three straight and has cardio issues. He thinks Ferguson can win a volume-based decision or even submit Chiesa, who leaves his neck out. Paul acknowledges it's a 'plug your nose' bet but feels the plus money is worth a small play. He also mentions that Ferguson's confidence is unshaken despite the losing streak.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's age (40) and inability to wrestle. He expects Chiesa to use his size and strength to take Ferguson down and submit him, possibly by arm triangle. He notes Ferguson's training at Knuckleheads Boxing is not improving his game. He predicts a first or second round submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 62 of 105 | 59% | 90 of 134 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 1 | 106 of 165 | 64% | 151 of 217 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 8:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 1 | 70 of 104 | 67% | 76 of 110 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 18 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 46 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:20 | |
| 3 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 22 of 32 | 68% | 41 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 29 of 49 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 62 of 105 | 59% | 35 of 66 | 23 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 51 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 14 |
| Tony Ferguson | 106 of 165 | 64% | 73 of 127 | 13 of 17 | 20 of 21 | 66 of 109 | 0 of 0 | 40 of 56 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 29 of 55 | 52% | 16 of 32 | 10 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 70 of 104 | 67% | 43 of 72 | 11 of 15 | 16 of 17 | 54 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 22 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 11 of 18 | 61% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Tony Ferguson | 19 of 27 | 70% | 16 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 18 | |
| 3 | Paddy Pimblett | 22 of 32 | 68% | 11 of 19 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Tony Ferguson | 17 of 34 | 50% | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 16 |
Angelo picks Paddy Pimblett confidently, stating that Tony Ferguson is a shell of his former self and that Paddy is a young, cocky prospect. He notes that Paddy is in his 'anti-40 parlay' and expects a dominant win, though he feels bad for Ferguson.
Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett to win by second-round submission, expressing strong disapproval that the fight is happening. He notes Tony Ferguson's six-fight losing streak, age (39), and accumulated damage, particularly after the Gaethje fight. Brady believes Ferguson is a shell of his former self, citing his poor performance against Bobby Green. He expects Pimblett to dominate and finish via submission or corner stoppage.
Cody picks Pimblett, arguing that Ferguson's last two fights showed he is shot, and that Pimblett's strength and top control will be decisive. He notes that Ferguson has given up 11 minutes of control time in recent fights and cannot get back up. Cody also mentions that Pimblett has taken a year off to refresh and is training with good partners, while Ferguson's personal issues and drinking have affected his performance.
Daniel Vreeland picks Paddy Pimblett, though he expresses sadness about picking against Tony Ferguson. He notes that Ferguson can no longer take a hit, especially after the Michael Chandler head kick. Vreeland believes Pimblett hits hard enough to knock out Ferguson, and that Ferguson's only path to victory is an early submission, which is unlikely. He expects Pimblett to win by knockout.
Jeff Fox picks Paddy Pimblett, stating that Ferguson is on a six-fight losing streak and has been finished in three straight. He notes that Pimblett is younger and more active, and that Ferguson's chin is gone. Fox believes Pimblett will finish Ferguson, possibly by knockout or submission.
Lucrative James is extremely confident Paddy Pimblett will win, calling it a setup fight. He believes Tony Ferguson is completely washed and on a seven-fight losing streak. He thinks Paddy will submit Ferguson, noting that Ferguson got submitted by Bobby Green and controlled by Charles Oliveira. He says Paddy should be a much heavier favorite and that the fight likely won't go to decision.
The host picks Pimblett but with low confidence, noting that Ferguson is a shell of his former self on a long losing streak. He expects Pimblett to walk Ferguson down, land big shots, and take him to the ground to grind out a decision, similar to how Oliveira and Dariush beat Ferguson. However, he is wary of the minus 285 line and acknowledges Ferguson could pull off a submission if he hurts Pimblett. He calls it a 'tailor-made' fight for Pimblett but expresses unease.
Paul picks Pimblett, stating that Tony Ferguson is 'absolutely cooked' after a six-fight losing streak. He notes that Ferguson has been submitted by Bobby Green and has no ability to get back up once taken down, as seen against Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. Paul believes Pimblett's strength and top control will be enough, and that the year off will have refreshed Pimblett. He expects a good version of Pimblett.
The Guru picks Paddy Pimblett over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's decline, especially his wrestling defense and inability to get back up. He believes Pimblett is too big and strong, and that Ferguson's legs are shot from training with David Goggins. He predicts Pimblett will take Ferguson down, get his back, and submit him with a rear-naked choke in round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 0 | 54 of 123 | 43% | 62 of 138 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 137 of 217 | 63% | 145 of 227 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 3:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 0 | 14 of 42 | 33% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 40 of 72 | 55% | 40 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | King Green | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 49 of 77 | 63% | 57 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:36 | |
| 3 | King Green | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 48 of 68 | 70% | 48 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 54 of 123 | 43% | 38 of 98 | 11 of 18 | 5 of 7 | 50 of 118 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
| Tony Ferguson | 137 of 217 | 63% | 95 of 166 | 24 of 31 | 18 of 20 | 115 of 183 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 14 of 42 | 33% | 11 of 33 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 14 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 40 of 72 | 55% | 23 of 50 | 7 of 10 | 10 of 12 | 39 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | King Green | 16 of 36 | 44% | 14 of 32 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Tony Ferguson | 49 of 77 | 63% | 38 of 66 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 31 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 29 | |
| 3 | King Green | 24 of 45 | 53% | 13 of 33 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 23 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 48 of 68 | 70% | 34 of 50 | 9 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 45 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Angelo is very confident in Bobby Green, mainly due to Tony Ferguson being a shell of his former self after taking severe beatings. He notes Green's volume, accuracy, and takedown defense, and believes Green will outpoint Ferguson. He also suggests a sneaky bet on over 1.5 rounds because Green is not a one-punch KO artist and Ferguson is durable.
Big Brady picks Bobby Green to win by third-round knockout. He believes Tony Ferguson is washed after taking life-changing damage and looking terrible in recent fights. He notes Green is not a finisher but expects him to finish Ferguson, possibly by mercy stoppage. He thinks this fight should not be sanctioned and predicts the end of Ferguson's UFC run.
Cody picks Green, citing Ferguson's decline after taking life-changing damage from Gaethje and Chandler. He notes Ferguson's takedown defense is poor (only one takedown in eight years) and his wrestling hasn't materialized. Green's boxing, takedown defense, and volume should outpoint Ferguson. He likes the prop of Green and over 1.5 rounds at -132.
James believes Ferguson is done, having lost five in a row and showing diminished durability and submission defense. He thinks Green can win, possibly by knockout, but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline. He leans under due to Green's recent finishes and Ferguson's decline.
Ferguson is on a five-fight losing streak and looks done. Green is a much more effective boxer than Diaz and will be aggressive after his last fight ended in a no contest. Green should outpoint Ferguson and possibly get a late stoppage. I'm leaning Green by decision but he might be more aggressive.
Paul agrees, arguing Ferguson's wins haven't aged well and his style is outdated. He highlights Green's counter-punching and takedown defense, and Ferguson's lack of power and inability to overwhelm Green. He expects a decision win for Green with Ferguson bleeding and behind on the scorecards.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 101 of 217 | 46% | 101 of 217 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 80 of 172 | 46% | 80 of 172 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 28 of 59 | 47% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 20 of 51 | 39% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 30 of 51 | 58% | 30 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 25 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 101 of 217 | 46% | 71 of 178 | 21 of 30 | 9 of 9 | 99 of 214 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 80 of 172 | 46% | 23 of 106 | 23 of 27 | 34 of 39 | 80 of 172 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 22 of 51 | 43% | 12 of 36 | 6 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 19 of 45 | 42% | 5 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 9 | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 28 of 59 | 47% | 19 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 20 of 51 | 39% | 5 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 10 | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 26 of 56 | 46% | 21 of 48 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 53 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 30 of 51 | 58% | 12 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 15 | 30 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Nate Diaz | 25 of 51 | 49% | 19 of 45 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 11 of 25 | 44% | 1 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Li Jingliang, citing Tony Ferguson's recent knockout and fast turnaround. He thinks Ferguson's chin is compromised and Jingliang's power and feints will confuse him. He notes Ferguson looked good against Chandler but was put out badly, and the three-month turnaround is too soon.
Big Brady picks Li Jingliang to win by first-round knockout, expressing concern for Tony Ferguson's durability after taking massive damage in recent fights. He notes Ferguson is 38, moving up in weight, and has been knocked out brutally by Chandler. He highlights Li's power, having knocked out tough fighters like Ponzinibbio and Salikhov, and predicts an early finish.
Cody is confident that Khamzat Chimaev will win, noting that Chimaev is a massive favorite and that Nate Diaz is an undersized former 155-pounder. He believes Chimaev's size and strength will be too much, and that Diaz's jiu-jitsu won't be a factor. Cody mentions that the only value is in props like Chimaev over 1.5 takedowns, and he doesn't see Diaz winning even one out of ten times.
Daniel Levi picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, citing Chimaev's wrestling and power as key factors. He acknowledges Diaz's durability and ability to survive, but believes Chimaev's improvements and pacing will lead to victory. Levi notes that Diaz's age and scar tissue could be issues, and he expects Chimaev to dominate with ground and pound. He is not betting the moneyline due to the heavy juice, but is confident in Chimaev's win.
Jacob picks Li Jingliang, emphasizing his feints and angles will give Ferguson PTSD. He thinks Ferguson will be gun-shy and react big to feints. He notes Ferguson could wrestle but doubts he will, and even if he does, Jingliang's takedown defense may hold. He calls it a bad matchup for Ferguson.
The host is extremely confident in Khamzat Chimaev, expecting him to take Nate Diaz down immediately and smash him on the ground. He dismisses Diaz's durability and jiu-jitsu, citing Chimaev's wrestling and size. He took under 1.5 rounds at +120 and suggests Chimaev round one at +165.
Paul picks Chimaev to win but expresses concerns about his cardio and persona. He notes that Chimaev's fight with Gilbert Burns showed he is human and may have cardio issues, and that the five-round fight could favor Diaz if Chimaev tires. However, he believes Chimaev has learned from that fight and will hold down Diaz more easily. Paul also mentions the over 1.5 rounds and over on takedowns as props.
The MMA Guru picks Tony Ferguson to win by 48-47 decision. He predicts Ferguson wins rounds 1, 2, and 4, while Diaz wins round 3, and round 5 is a stalemate. Ferguson chews up Diaz's leg and body with teeps and front kicks, lands elbows that cut Diaz, and freestyles with 360 body shots. Diaz has moments, including a takedown in round 3, but Ferguson scrambles out and lands more. The fight ends with both swinging, but Ferguson's output edges him the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | 1 | 27 of 53 | 50% | 43 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:31 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 27 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chandler | 0 | 26 of 52 | 50% | 42 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 27 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Chandler | 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | 27 of 53 | 50% | 15 of 39 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 |
| Tony Ferguson | 20 of 50 | 40% | 13 of 38 | 2 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chandler | 26 of 52 | 50% | 14 of 38 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 |
| Tony Ferguson | 20 of 50 | 40% | 13 of 38 | 2 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | |
| 2 | Michael Chandler | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chandler (-380), Ferguson (+290)
Round 1
At one time, Ferguson (25-6, 15-4 UFC) had amassed an outstanding 12-fight win streak, where he claimed the interim title at one point, but he has fallen on hard times the last few years. On a three-fight skid, “El Cucuy” is at a crossroads at the age of 38, and he will take on hard-charging, granite-chinned Chandler (22-7, 1-2 UFC) in a match that still holds significance at 155 pounds. Referee Jason Herzog may have his hands full depending on how this battle plays out, and these two hope to bring out a firefight while not bothering to touch gloves. Ferguson reaches out with a low kick to see how far he can reach, and Chandler picks his leg up and scoots back. Ferguson arcs out a standing elbow, expecting Chandler to come at him, but Chandler does not oblige. Ferguson’s front kick brushes pass Chandler’s hand, and Chandler chops down the leg with a pair of heavy kicks. Chandler just misses with a left hook, and Ferguson meets him in the middle with his own left. Ferguson clips the former Bellator champ with a left hand, and he kicks high and stings Chandler. Ferguson hurts him again with a few punches, and he backs Chandler up to the wall. Ferguson does not go wild, instead working the body and getting caught with a left hand. They trade heavily and both connect and get the other’s attention, and it is Ferguson that lands the flusher strikes and backs Chandler off. Chandler throws a leg kick, only to get countered over the top. Blasting through with a double, “Iron Mike” knocks Ferguson clean off his feet with a tackling takedown, and Ferguson kicks off the fence and slashes with elbows off his back to open a cut on Chandler’s head. Ferguson cleverly holds on to Chandler with his feet on his hips, and he pushes Chandler off and nearly flips his man over as he keeps a high guard and attempts to hook up an omoplata. Ferguson snatches hold of a triangle choke until Chandler blasts him in the face, and he loads up on several punches to make Ferguson readjust his attempts at submission. Ferguson protests that Chandler is lowering his head down and clacking him in the face with his forehead, and Herzog warns Ferguson for grabbing the fence. Ferguson turns and nearly sweeps, but Chandler deftly remains on top and gets off some short ground-and-pound. Ferguson hacks with elbows off his back, and the blood from Chandler is leaking down into Ferguson’s eyes. Chandler looses a few punches and cuts Ferguson’s right eye, and the thrilling round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson
Round 2
Between rounds, Chandler’s right eye swells up substantially, but he does not appear remotely concerned about it as the round opens up. Before Ferguson can throw a single punch, Chandler summons all of his strength and calls on the legends of Anderson Silva and Lyoto Machida to empower his right leg. In the most spectacular move tonight by a landslide, Chandler smashes the ball of his foot into Ferguson’s chin, and the light fades from Ferguson’s eyes in an instant. “El Cucuy” topples over, completely unconscious, and he slumps over on his face and is communing with his ancestors. Chandler celebrates, knowing there is nothing left for him to do today, and he hits several back flips in rapid succession, sticking the landing for each and every one. The video cuts to Molly McCann and Paddy Pimblett in the crowd, and appropriately so, as this knockout might have topped her incredible spinning back elbow earlier this year with the cleanest front kick knockout you will ever see. As Chandler is with his team, Ferguson is still out, but he finally manages to come around to the delight of everyone in the building. What an incredible knockout, one that will stand on highlight reels for years to come. Absolutely amazing. To top it off, Chandler calls for a fight with Conor McGregor in his post-fight interview, but good luck getting “Notorious” to take that fight after witnessing that astounding knockout.
The Official Result
Michael Chandler def. Tony Ferguson R2 0:17 via KO (Front Kick)
Angelo picks Michael Chandler, stating that everything Tony Ferguson does well, Chandler does better. He believes Chandler's chin has held up after the Gaethje war and expects a war similar to Chandler's last fight. He notes that Ferguson may not be the same after the Gaethje loss.
Big Brady picks Michael Chandler to win by decision. He notes that the blueprint to beat Ferguson is to take him down and control him, as Oliveira and Dariush did. However, Chandler is more of a striker and may not follow that blueprint. Brady thinks Chandler's power and wrestling could still get the job done, and he expects Chandler to mix in takedowns and win minutes on top. He is not laying -400 on Chandler but believes he will cruise to a decision. He acknowledges Ferguson's toughness and danger on the feet but thinks Chandler is closer to his prime.
Cody picks Michael Chandler but also dislikes the -380 price. He provides a detailed breakdown of Ferguson's decline, noting that Ferguson hasn't looked good in years, even in wins. Cody points out that Ferguson's game hasn't evolved, he trains alone, and his unorthodox style is no longer effective. He believes Chandler's wrestling and power will be too much, and that Chandler can take Ferguson's best shots. Cody expects Chandler to dominate early and possibly knock Ferguson out, but acknowledges Ferguson could win 3 out of 10 times.
Daniel Levi picks Michael Chandler confidently, though he does not bet the fight due to the high price. He notes Chandler's first-round explosiveness and wrestling fallback, while Ferguson has declined significantly, losing 11 straight rounds. He thinks Chandler's speed and power are too much for this version of Ferguson, but he is not interested in laying -425. He passes on betting entirely.
The host picks Michael Chandler to win by first-round knockout. He questions Chandler's wrestling approach, expecting him to stand and trade. He notes Ferguson's unorthodox style and durability, but believes Chandler's power will find the chin early. He is not betting Chandler at -400, but likes 'fight doesn't go to decision' at -180 and Ferguson submission at +750 as small shots. He acknowledges Ferguson's crafty jiu-jitsu and Chandler's history of being knocked out.
Paul picks Michael Chandler to win but is not confident at -380. He thinks Ferguson is washed and that Chandler will dominate early, possibly getting a finish. However, Paul is more interested in the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +150, citing Ferguson's durability. He notes that Ferguson has only been knocked out once (by Gaethje) and is tough to finish, so the decision prop offers value.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chandler by first-round KO, believing Tony Ferguson is done. He argues Ferguson's ground game is overrated and that Chandler can take him down or KO him. He notes Chandler's speed and leg kicks, and that Ferguson's chin is up in the air. He thinks Chandler will slip inside Ferguson's jab and land a big right hand. He also mentions Chandler has more to fight for, including a potential McGregor fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 37 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 76 of 142 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 12:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 32 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 26 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 4:04 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 18 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 15 of 34 | 44% | 10 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 10 |
| Tony Ferguson | 23 of 55 | 41% | 16 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 7 of 18 | 38% | 6 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Tony Ferguson | 10 of 28 | 35% | 6 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Tony Ferguson | 6 of 14 | 42% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 6 of 12 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Tony Ferguson | 7 of 13 | 53% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Up next is the long-awaited co-main event, which sees Ferguson (25-5, 15-3 UFC) try to snap the first losing streak of his career against the surging Dariush (20-4-1, 14-4-1 UFC). Hold on to your hats, this one is about to get crazy. Referee Mike Beltran clocks them in and they do not touch gloves, preferring to let their hands settle things instead. Ferguson stutter-steps forward into a left hand, but he is no worse for wear from it. Dariush kicks across Ferguson’s leg to his surprise, and he darts in with a left hook that falls short. Dariush charges in to attack, and Ferguson eats a few shots but is slick and moving everywhere to avoid the shots. Dariush scores another unusual leg kick to Ferguson’s rear leg, and Dariush is ready to brawl and throws hands to catch Ferguson off-guard. Dariush presses forward, and he hits a body lock takedown to plant Ferguson on his back. Ferguson kicks him off, scores an upkick, and pulls a high rubber guard when Dariush climbs back down. Dariush ignores it and pushes through to land a few punches to the body, but “El Cucuy” is holding him tight and elbowing him on the side of the head a few times. Ferguson looks to set up a triangle choke, but when that fails, he recovers his guard. Dariush sits up to start nailing Ferguson with punches and elbows, and Ferguson takes them on the chin all while continuing to hack back with elbows. Ferguson rolls over to nearly sweep Dariush, but he is pushed back over and finds himself surrendering half guard. Dariush steps over to set up an arm-triangle choke, and Ferguson looks to roll through and attack with an armbar as he pushes off the fence. Dariush sees it coming and flows with him, where he slides into Ferguson’s butterfly guard. The Kings MMA fighter resecures half guard, and he steps over to the other side to land some ground-and-pound. When Dariush looks to congratulate him for the round, Ferguson pushes him away to go back to his corner.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Round 2
The second round begins with Ferguson taking the center of the cage, and Dariush kicks his lead leg. Ferguson falls down Dariush looks to take him down. Instead of succumbing to a bad position, Ferguson attacks a brabo choke from his back against the wall. Dariush stays patient and unconcerned with the submission until Ferguson bails on it, where he looks to pull Ferguson’s legs out from beneath him. Dariush pulls him off the fence to put Ferguson flat on his back, and Dariush in full guard starts slugging away at Ferguson. Dariush ignores Ferguson’s flailing on his back to smash his fists on Ferguson’s head, and elbows and punches land until Ferguson tries to push him away. Dariush stays committed to keeping Ferguson grounded, and Ferguson attacks with a submission to get Dariush to back off. Ferguson sweeps Dariush in a wild scramble, and Dariush pulls him back down to attack a heel hook. Ferguson is in serious agony, and he grimaces but does not yell out and instead kicks Dariush in the chest to break the grip. As Dariush loosens the grip, he climbs over on top. Dariush steps into half guard, where he threatens with an arm-triangle choke but is more intent on smothering Ferguson’s face with his chest. Ferguson elbows him a few times, but Dariush does not care as he stays pressed heavy to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Round 3
Ferguson’s leg is severely compromised from the heel hook, and he tries to use his tricky movement but does not have his wheels about him. Dariush walks through any strikes to grab hold of Ferguson, and “El Cucuy” latches on to a guillotine choke. Dariush lifts him up and slams him down, where he breaks the grip and gains an advantageous position. The two end up in a north-south position as Ferguson kicks off the fence, but Dariush expertly traverses the guard to try to get side control. The crowd chants “stand them up,” and these chants echo through the Toyota Center, Beltran asks the fighters to keep moving. Dariush pulls on his adversary to try to get Ferguson’s legs away from the cage, and the two are in a grappling stalemate with no strikes thrown of any kind. Dariush grinds his elbow on Ferguson’s chin, and Ferguson holds on tight but is not doing anything of note either. This odd north-south posture continues as fans grow more restless, and Dariush hops over to side control. Ferguson looks to set up an arm-triangle choke from his back like Maurice Greene pulled off on Gian Villante, but Dariush breaks the grip and hops over on top. Ferguson rolls through and the two get back to their north-south with Ferguson’s feet on the cage, and Dariush spins through to try to land strikes. Ferguson closes his guard and Dariush lands a few short punches to the body. Dariush finishes the fight with a few punches from above, and Ferguson answers with elbows to end this disappointing yet one-sided lightweight clash.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)
The Official Result
Beneil Dariush def. Tony Ferguson via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Ferguson has taken massive damage and looks diminished. Dariush is a BJJ black belt with good striking and takedowns. He can implement a similar game plan to Oliveira: take Ferguson down and control him. Ferguson is tough to finish, so I expect a decision win for Dariush.
Cody also picks Dariush, emphasizing Ferguson's decline and poor game plans. He notes that Ferguson's wins are aging and he hasn't knocked anyone out in years. Cody believes Dariush is a thinking man's fighter who will use takedowns and top control to win. He points out that Ferguson's takedown defense is weak and his submission game is not a threat from the bottom. Cody expects Dariush to win the first round and then secure a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush, emphasizing Ferguson's decline since his knee injury and the Gaethje fight. He notes Dariush's six-fight win streak, knockout power, and jiu-jitsu credentials, and believes Dariush can mix takedowns and avoid submissions. Levi is concerned about Dariush's tendency to leave openings and gas, but thinks Ferguson's durability and chin have diminished. He expects Dariush to dominate and win via decision or late stoppage.
The host picks Dariush but is not confident, noting Ferguson's chaotic style could cause problems. He thinks Dariush should have a grappling advantage and grind out a decision, but worries about Ferguson's ability to create volatility. He says he is not running to the betting window on Dariush.
Paul picks Dariush, citing Ferguson's decline. He notes that Ferguson has lost to elite guys and looked abysmal in his last two fights. Paul believes Dariush's wrestling and game planning will be key, as he can take Ferguson down and neutralize him, similar to what Oliveira did. He mentions that Ferguson's takedown defense is poor and his submission game is not a threat from the bottom. Paul expects Dariush to win by decision, using takedowns to control the fight.
The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's age and recent decline. He notes that Ferguson's wins are aging poorly and that Dariush thrives under chaos, which is key against Ferguson. He predicts Dariush will control the fight with grappling and win a unanimous decision 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 26 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 41 of 63 | 65% | 86 of 112 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 11:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 28 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:35 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 34 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 | |
| 3 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 24 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 19 of 42 | 45% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Tony Ferguson | 41 of 63 | 65% | 26 of 43 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 29 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 11 of 29 | 37% | 7 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 16 of 28 | 57% | 12 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 6 of 7 | 85% | 5 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Tony Ferguson | 12 of 16 | 75% | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 | |
| 3 | Charles Oliveira | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 13 of 19 | 68% | 8 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
Big Brady picks Tony Ferguson to win by third-round knockout. He believes Ferguson's pace and volume will break Oliveira, who has cardio issues and has been finished in six of seven losses. He notes Oliveira's improved striking but thinks Ferguson's pressure and durability will be key. He is not in love with the -170 line but might look at inside the distance or under props.
Daniel acknowledges Ferguson's historical superiority and higher level of competition, but expresses concerns about Ferguson's recent interviews and potential damage from the Gaethje fight. He thinks Oliveira's boxing has improved but is not convinced Oliveira has truly turned a corner. He ultimately picks Ferguson but calls it a dog-or-pass situation, noting he is not confident.
Ferguson's relentless pressure and unorthodox style will break Oliveira, who has historically folded under pressure. Oliveira's best chance is an early finish, but if it goes past the first round, Ferguson will drown him. Ferguson's cardio and durability are superior. Expect a second-round TKO or submission for Ferguson.
The MMA Guru picks Tony Ferguson, despite many picking Oliveira. He believes Ferguson's chin, experience against better competition, and ability to win on the feet will be key. He expects Ferguson to win by TKO in the third round. He notes Oliveira's tendency to slow down and fail at the top level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 136 of 296 | 45% | 136 of 296 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 143 of 197 | 72% | 143 of 197 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 26 of 37 | 70% | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 33 of 64 | 51% | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 37 of 50 | 74% | 37 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 24 of 69 | 34% | 24 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 36 of 73 | 49% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 34 of 39 | 87% | 34 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 136 of 296 | 45% | 64 of 212 | 36 of 43 | 36 of 41 | 136 of 296 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 143 of 197 | 72% | 100 of 153 | 13 of 14 | 30 of 30 | 143 of 197 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 29 of 54 | 53% | 13 of 36 | 10 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 26 of 37 | 70% | 15 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 33 of 64 | 51% | 17 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 13 | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 37 of 50 | 74% | 24 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 37 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 24 of 69 | 34% | 13 of 57 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 24 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 20 of 35 | 57% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Justin Gaethje | 36 of 73 | 49% | 17 of 50 | 13 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 26 of 36 | 72% | 18 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Justin Gaethje | 14 of 36 | 38% | 4 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 34 of 39 | 87% | 29 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Here we go, folks. It’s time for the main event, and the bonus checks have practically already been written for these two. For the interim lightweight belt, and a chance to fight Khabib Nurmagomedov, is a potentially thrilling encounter between Ferguson (25-3, 15-1 UFC) and Gaethje (21-2, 4-2 UFC). Together, the two have pocketed 15 post-fight bonuses in their last 16 fights, and referee Herb Dean will look to keep things clean as they head into glorious battle. The glove touch leads into a few seconds of circling until Ferguson throws a front kick. Gaethje opens up with a leg kick, but it is shy of the mark. Tony turns his back to showboat a little, and then throws a superman punch that chains into a two punch combination. Gaethje loses his balance, but regains it quickly to throw a heavy left hand. Ferguson rolls with it, and eats a leg kick. Ferguson takes another hard leg kick and tries to counter over the top, but Gaethje is ready for him with a two-punch salvo. Ferguson scores an inside leg kick that slightly trips Gaethje, but “The Highlight” still manages to land a right hand. A thumping left hook from Gaethje surprises Ferguson, but “El Cucuy” is not too concerned with it. Ferguson jabs to the body and ducks down just in time to avoid a lethal left hook. Ferguson catches Gaethje with a head kick and immediately sticks him with a jab. Gaethje bullies him over, and Ferguson rolls out to get back up. Gaethje connects with another nasty leg kick, and both swing with crazy right hands that just miss. “The Highlight” scores a few more short kicks, and Ferguson is smiling at him as he tries to stick out long punches and kicks. Ferguson digs in with a low kick, and gets countered with a right hand that makes him stumble. A small mouse has formed on the center of Ferguson’s forehead, and he takes another right hand right to the same spot. They jab each other, and both crack each other with vicious left hooks. Gaethje comes at him with another, and a glancing eye poke leads to an apology from Gaethje. The round end with both men kicking at each other.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 2
They greet each other with punches in the face, as Ferguson sneaks in with another superman punch and Gaethje comes back with a right hand. They load up on big punches, and Gaethje connects with a blistering left hook but Ferguson takes it without issue. A thin trickle of blood appears to be coming from the nose of Gaethje, but he does not care as he commits to a thunderous left hand that nearly lifts Ferguson off the ground. Ferguson does not even show a wobble in his step, but takes a low kick when trying to show he is not hurt. Another kick from Gaethje makes Ferguson visibly react to it, and Ferguson swings and misses with a big hook. Gaethje throws one back that blows his hair back, and then clashes a right hand off the dome of his opponent. These two are trading one for the other, and both are having their moments of success. A one-two from Ferguson does not bother Gaethje, who replies with much heavier punches. The ex-WSOF champ rips to the body and then fires a left on the side of Ferguson’s head. Gaethje is loading up on all his punches, and busts up the nose of Ferguson and damages his eye. Gaethje swings from downtown to nail Ferguson on the head, but the former interim champ does not appear to be too concerned. Ferguson spins with a back elbow, and then turns about to land a leg kick. As Ferguson overcommits to an overhand right, a leg kick from Gaethje nearly buckles his knee. Gaethje digs deep and wings a right hand that would put most fighters on the canvas, but Ferguson wades through it. Two punches from Gaethje crack Ferguson on the chin, but like before, there is no reaction. With the round about to end, both men fire Mortal Kombat-esque uppercuts, and Ferguson lands flush and drops Gaethje. What a way to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 3
The two are not afraid to engage in Round 3, Ferguson is taking heavy shots but walks through them to land his own. The power significantly in the favor of Gaethje, Ferguson’s durability is unbelievable as he takes a picture-perfect right and left that bust him open. The damage is instant, as he is bleeding out of the side of his left eye while there is also a cut and a mouse forming under his right. Ferguson leaps forward with a trick punch, but Gaethje times it with a left hand to back him off. They time uppercuts on one another, and a crisp right hook nearly knocks Ferguson down. Gaethje senses he has him hurt, finally, and Gaethje is swinging to finish the fight. Ferguson comes back with an uppercut, and blows his nose out while walking him down. Gaethje cracks Ferguson about as good as anyone could possibly land, and Ferguson takes it like no one else. “El Cucuy” strings together a few punches while avoiding the counter left hook that comes his way. Ferguson catches him on the end of a left hand, but Gaethje is still loading up on right hands that are connecting with ferocious intent. A few jabs to the body force a momentary deep breath from Gaethje, and Ferguson sweeps low to kick Gaethje’s legs out. Ferguson starts to get loose, faking wild arm movement to get his way in and tag Gaethje. Gaethje cracks him with a head kick and follows it with a ridiculous right hand, and yet again Ferguson eats it. A leg kick from Gaethje and a few kicks from each fighter conclude this ludicrous round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 4
Gaethje begins the round with a heavy leg kick, and Ferguson is hunched low perhaps to throw Gaethje off. Ferguson’s corner Eddie Bravo recommended that Ferguson pursue an Imanari roll to surprise Gaethje, which could be the reason for his low stance. Ferguson misses with a wheel kick, and Gaethje comes back with a powerful right hand. “El Cucuy” loads up on an elbow but he get caught on the way in, and when he tries to gain distance, he gets clipped with a right. Lefts and rights are coming en masse for Gaethje, but the former WSOF champion lands an incredibly successful leg kick that makes Ferguson grimace as he spins around. Ferguson sneaks him with a left hand, and Gaethje returns fire with a devastating right hand that wobbles his legs. That shot finally damaged the chin of Ferguson, and the leg kicks have been helping as well. Ferguson avoids some damage while spinning against the fence, and they get back to the center of the cage while Gaethje rips a few more leg kicks. Ferguson gets his sea legs about him, and as they come together, a low kick from Ferguson lands low. Gaethje shakes it off, and Dean pauses it for just a moment before Gaethje waves him off to keep fighting. Gaethje does not want to let Ferguson off the hook, but Ferguson is the one engaging now in the form of a multitude of jabs off the bow. As Ferguson goes for another jab, Gaethje blasts the lead leg and makes Ferguson’s knee buckle. Ferguson somehow manages to walk through it, so Gaethje gives one more for good measure. Both men trade head kicks, and the fourth round is now in the books.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 5
Gaethje shows no fear as he begins the round with a right hand and a leg kick that gives Ferguson pause. Ferguson manages to check the kick, and his shins are bleeding as a result. A right hand from Gaethje stings him, and Ferguson wears it well to get back his composure. Gaethje racks him with two more punches, and a leg kick forces Ferguson to limp. Ferguson kicks Gaethje’s leg, and Gaethje is not thrilled with having to each that along with another that follows. Two punches from Ferguson are countered by Gaethje, who clubs him in the face with punches that make Ferguson do the chicken dance. Hurt again, Ferguson bounces back against the fence, but still manages to come back around. In a desperate effort, Ferguson rolls for that Imanari roll, but Gaethje is a long way away. Ferguson gets back up, and Gaethje makes him pay for it with a few loud leg kicks and thudding right hands. He connects with another few right hands, and Ferguson wears them shocking well given how much damage he has accumulated over the course of the fight. The head strike totals from Gaethje are likely astronomical,
and a stiff left jab sends Ferguson into a walking stupor. Ferguson is falling across the cage, and Gaethje chases him down while Ferguson’s eyes are badly damaged and blinded with blood. A few more punches from Gaethje force Dean to intervene and stop the fight, and this is a righteous stoppage even though Ferguson doesn’t agree with it. What a battle, what total mayhem that was.
Gaethje is now the first fighter to ever knock out the otherworldly durable Ferguson. Justin Gaethje is now the new interim UFC lightweight champion, and scored himself a chance to take on Khabib Nurmagomedov. In his post-fight interview, Gaethje hurls the interim belt off of his waist, and tells Joe Rogan, “I want the real one.”
The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Tony Ferguson R5 3:39 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady picks Tony Ferguson, expecting him to break Gaethje over time by wearing him down. He notes Gaethje's tendency to tire and get hit, and Ferguson's never been finished by strikes. He predicts a knockout in the third or fourth round. However, he criticizes the line at minus 185 as too wide, suggesting it should be closer to a pick'em, and sees value on Gaethje.
Daniel Levi picks Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's insane pace, unorthodox footwork, and front kicks to the gut. He believes Ferguson will drown Gaethje in the later rounds, though he acknowledges Gaethje's power and cardio. Levi notes that Ferguson's chin tends to lift when teeing off, which could be dangerous against Gaethje, but he trusts Ferguson's ability to avoid a concussive blow and take over.
Matt picks Ferguson but is not confident at -185, calling the line too wide. He believes Ferguson's unorthodox style, cardio, and jiu-jitsu can overwhelm Gaethje in later rounds. He sees value on Gaethje at +160 and suggests the under 2.5 rounds as a possible bet, but he plans to just enjoy the fight without betting.
Rafael dos Anjos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 18 of 30 | 60% | 12 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 4 of 13 | 30% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 18 of 30 | 60% | 12 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 4 of 13 | 30% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Geoff Neal but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Neal is younger, has good takedown defense and hands, and should win if the fight stays standing. However, he acknowledges RDA could get takedowns and grind out a decision. He will leave this fight alone due to the risk.
Big Brady strongly favors Neal, calling it a bad matchup for RDA. He notes that RDA struggles at welterweight against bigger guys and that Neal has elite takedown defense (87%). He believes Neal is the much better striker with more power and that RDA won't be able to take him down. He predicts Neal wins by decision, stuffing takedowns and doing better work on the feet.
Cody leans toward Rafael dos Anjos as an underdog, noting that RDA's wrestling and cardio could neutralize Neal's striking. He points out that Neal has struggled against wrestlers like Neil Magny, and that RDA's takedown-heavy approach could frustrate Neal. However, Cody is hesitant because RDA is 40 and has lost to superior grapplers. He suggests a small play or pass.
Connor picks Neal, agreeing that RDA at welterweight is not the same bully. He notes that RDA's game relies on being a physical bully, which he can't do at welterweight, and that Neal is capable of putting together moments of offense that win rounds. Connor also mentions that RDA is almost 40 and has a lot of mileage.
Daniel Vreeland picks Geoff Neal to win, citing significant advantages in size, speed, and youth. He notes that Neal has faced much larger opponents recently and that RDA is a smaller fighter who may struggle with Neal's reach and takedown defense. Vreeland acknowledges Neal's inconsistency but believes this is a favorable matchup.
Daniel Vreeland picks Neal, citing his size, youth, and recent competition against top welterweights. He notes that RDA's wrestling has dropped off significantly, giving up 19 takedowns in his last two fights. Vreeland believes Neal's speed and game plan will be too much for the aging RDA.
Jeff Fox also picks Neal, emphasizing RDA's declining wrestling. He notes that Neal has sneaky good wrestling and that RDA's takedown defense has worsened. Fox expects Neal to be faster on the feet and implement a better game plan.
Welterweight is not the best weight class for dos Anjos, and Neal should stop his takedowns and utilize his striking advantage. It wouldn't surprise me if Neal knocks dos Anjos out, but I lean with Neal winning on the scorecards.
Paul picks Geoff Neal, believing his reach and boxing will keep the fight standing. He notes that RDA's wrestling has not been as effective at welterweight against bigger opponents. Paul thinks Neal can stuff takedowns and use his length to outpoint RDA. He is not highly confident but leans Neal.
The Guru picks Geoff Neal by TKO in the second round, arguing that Rafael dos Anjos at 39 is outmatched physically. He notes Neal's size, power, and takedown defense (citing the Belal Muhammad fight) will be too much for RDA. He believes RDA's only path is to brawl in the pocket, which favors Neal. The Guru predicts a vicious finish, possibly ending RDA's career.
Zane picks Neal because RDA at welterweight is not the same relentless pressure fighter he was at lightweight; he's more reluctant to apply pressure and gets hit harder. Neal is a puncher who can keep his output up and win rounds, even if he gets stalled for one. Zane notes that RDA's wrestling is deteriorating and he's almost 40.
Zane clearly favored Neal, describing the fight as a 'sad days fight' for RDA. He noted that RDA's game of physical bullying and pressure doesn't work at welterweight because guys are too big and hit too hard. Zane pointed out that RDA got crushed by the first shot and blew out his knee, calling it an old man way to lose. He praised Neal's performance but remains skeptical about Neal's title prospects.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 57 of 102 | 55% | 111 of 163 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 7:01 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 36 of 78 | 46% | 39 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 40 of 61 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 28 of 36 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 43 of 66 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 57 of 102 | 55% | 48 of 90 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 88 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 36 of 78 | 46% | 24 of 61 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 26 of 67 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 19 of 34 | 55% | 17 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 11 of 19 | 57% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 10 of 18 | 55% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 12 of 25 | 48% | 9 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 28 of 50 | 56% | 25 of 45 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 13 of 34 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He believes RDA has no wrestling defense and will spend much of the fight on his back. He thinks Gamrot will shoot takedowns, grind, and win. He also mentions over 2.5 rounds as a good bet.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes that RDA is 39 and has struggled with wrestling, and that Gamrot has the cardio to shoot many takedowns. He expects the striking to be competitive, but Gamrot's takedowns will seal each round.
Cody thinks RDA is being priced as if he's completely washed, but he believes RDA is better at 155 and that the Luque loss was due to size. He thinks RDA's striking and jiu-jitsu make him competitive, and at plus money, he's worth a look.
Daniel is confident Gamrot will win, citing his wrestling and low single takedowns. He notes RDA was outwrestled by Vicente Luque, who is not known for offensive wrestling, and expects Gamrot to dominate on the ground. However, he dislikes the minus 450 price and says he would only bet if the price improves.
Gamrot is a high-level wrestler who should be too strong, fast, and young for the aging dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has shown declining takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Vicente Luque where he was controlled for 11 minutes. Gamrot will likely get the fight to the ground and grind on dos Anjos, wearing him down. I expect Gamrot to win a decision, as finishing a durable veteran like dos Anjos is tough. The prop 'Gamrot by decision' is the best way to attack this fight without taking too much chalk.
Paul disagrees, pointing out that RDA has historically struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down repeatedly. He thinks Gamrot's chain wrestling, cardio, and durability will overwhelm RDA, who will likely lose the first two rounds and be unable to come back.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his superior technical wrestling, strength, and versatility compared to RDA. He notes the three-round format benefits Gamrot's pace, and that RDA is 39 and has talked about retirement. He also highlights that Gamrot trains with Dustin Poirier, which should help his preparation. He predicts Gamrot will ragdoll RDA and win a decision or late finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 72 of 141 | 51% | 138 of 221 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 12:01 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 66 of 136 | 48% | 94 of 170 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 3:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 20 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 20 of 41 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 32 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 14 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 27 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 12 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 4 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 26 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 5 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 33 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 28 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 72 of 141 | 51% | 48 of 115 | 17 of 19 | 7 of 7 | 60 of 127 | 8 of 8 | 4 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 66 of 136 | 48% | 42 of 108 | 19 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 38 of 105 | 26 of 27 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 16 of 32 | 50% | 9 of 24 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 37 | 45% | 8 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 28 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 11 of 26 | 42% | 7 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 10 of 22 | 45% | 4 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 15 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vicente Luque | 18 of 39 | 46% | 12 of 32 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 11 of 27 | 40% | 8 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Vicente Luque | 10 of 18 | 55% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 9 of 15 | 60% | 5 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Vicente Luque | 17 of 26 | 65% | 14 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 19 of 35 | 54% | 17 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks dos Anjos, citing his grappling and takedowns as the key. He notes Luque has poor takedown defense (except against Belal) and dos Anjos is a high-level grappler. He already has a moneyline bet at -125.
Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win by third-round knockout, but calls it the sketchiest fight on the card. He notes RDA's age (38) and size disadvantage at welterweight, but also Luque's recent knockout loss and brain hemorrhage concerns. He believes Luque's constant pressure and power will eventually catch RDA, but admits there are red flags on both sides. He says he wants nothing to do with the fight.
Cody picks Luque at plus money, arguing that dos Anjos is a former lightweight who has struggled at welterweight (2-5 in last 7). He notes Luque's strong get-up game against Belal Muhammad and believes dos Anjos won't be able to take him down consistently. He also mentions Luque's camp at Kill Cliff FC with Gilbert Burns preparing him for the wrestling. However, he acknowledges Luque's damage accumulation and brain hemorrhage history but still sees him edging out a five-round decision.
James picks RDA over Luque, citing Luque's brutal knockout loss to Neal and subsequent brain issues as major negatives. He sees the striking as fairly even but gives RDA a grappling advantage, noting RDA can lean on takedowns and jiu-jitsu. James acknowledges Luque's size and age advantage but feels the unknowns around Luque's recovery tilt the fight toward RDA. He is not yet committed to betting, saying he will discuss with his team.
Dos Anjos is durable and blends striking and grappling well. Luque is on a two-fight losing streak and had brain bleeding after his last KO. Dos Anjos should be able to mix in takedowns and combinations to outwork Luque over 25 minutes. Luque may have success striking, but dos Anjos's versatility will be too much.
Paul leans toward dos Anjos, citing his better cardio over five rounds and ability to mix in wrestling. He expresses concern about Luque's brain hemorrhage in 2022 and doesn't want to put money behind someone with that history. He acknowledges the fight is close and understands Cody's points about dos Anjos' wrestling not being as effective against bigger welterweights, but slightly favors RDA.
The MMA Guru picks Vicente Luque over Rafael dos Anjos, despite Luque's brain hemorrhage, assuming it was mild and he had a year off. He argues Luque is bigger, more powerful, has a better chin, and is hard to finish on the ground. He doubts RDA's ability to control Luque for five rounds and predicts Luque will finish RDA in round three by D'Arce choke.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 61 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 20 of 25 | 80% | 36 of 41 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 6:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 25 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 30 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:06 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 36 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 6 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 14 of 29 | 48% | 6 of 18 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Bryan Barberena | 20 of 25 | 80% | 3 of 8 | 17 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 9 of 19 | 47% | 1 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bryan Barberena | 16 of 20 | 80% | 2 of 6 | 14 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 12 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Bryan Barberena | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos, calling him the better fighter everywhere: more technical striking, much better grappling, higher fight IQ, and higher level of competition. He notes RDA is 38 and coming off a KO loss, but trusts him to grapple early and often. He thinks Barberena's 44% takedown defense and lack of one-punch KO power (except against Lawler) make RDA the pick.
Big Brady is extremely confident in RDA, citing a massive step down in competition and a favorable stylistic matchup. He notes Barberena's poor takedown defense (55%) and defensive irresponsibility, and RDA's advantage everywhere. He expects RDA to win however he wants, predicting a decision but noting a finish is possible.
Cody agrees RDA wins handily, citing his elite wrestling and Barberena's poor takedown defense. He notes RDA hasn't finished anyone recently but expects multiple takedowns and control. He prefers the over 2.5 takedowns prop over significant strikes.
Daniel Levi picks RDA to win by decision, mixing in takedowns. He acknowledges Barberena's durability and power (dropped Leon Edwards) but believes RDA's wrestling and blending of attacks will be too much. He is not interested in betting at the heavy price (-550) and calls it a pass.
The host is very confident in dos Anjos, calling him a 'lock of the night' essentially. He believes dos Anjos is far superior and will mix his striking and takedowns to control Barberena. He notes Barberena's struggles against grapplers like Jason Witt. He expects dos Anjos to win by decision but says he wouldn't bat an eye at parlaying him at the price.
Paul sees RDA as dominant everywhere and expects a straightforward win. He notes Barberena's durability but thinks RDA can finish him, especially inside the distance. He mentions RDA's takedown-heavy style and Barberena's poor takedown defense.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, noting Barberena struggles when opponents mix up attacks. He believes RDA's body work and leg kicks will be effective, and that Barberena's losses to Jason Witt and Randy Brown show vulnerability. He predicts RDA will win a clear decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 54 of 110 | 49% | 90 of 162 | 2 of 16 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 6:13 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 64 of 159 | 40% | 92 of 192 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 44 | 38% | 20 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 13 of 32 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 4 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 28 of 41 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 5 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 54 of 110 | 49% | 31 of 80 | 12 of 14 | 11 of 16 | 50 of 106 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 64 of 159 | 40% | 32 of 102 | 27 of 52 | 5 of 5 | 62 of 155 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 9 of 26 | 34% | 5 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 14 of 41 | 34% | 8 of 26 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 19 of 36 | 52% | 10 of 26 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 44 | 38% | 6 of 27 | 9 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 9 of 22 | 40% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 38 | 44% | 7 of 26 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rafael Fiziev | 15 of 23 | 65% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 12 of 27 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Rafael Fiziev | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiziev (-200), dos Anjos (+170)
Round 1
The battle for Rafael supremacy comes to a head in this main event, in the only fight tonight containing two ranked competitors. Former lightweight king dos Anjos (31-13, 20-11 UFC) hopes to push towards another run at the title, but he will have to get through “Ataman” Fiziev (11-1, 5-1 UFC) to get there. This intriguing clash between veteran and upstart, grappler and striker, and old lion vs. young thundercat will be joined by referee Mark Smith. When the cage door closes, the Rafaels touch gloves ahead of their 25-minute tilt -- if needed – and they are ready to finally get after it. Fiziev strikes first with a sharp body kick, and dos Anjos looks to cut him off and he tosses out a low kick. Fiziev answers with another body kick, and he does a dodge reminiscent of the film “The Matrix” as he leans back from a high kick. Dos Anjos steps in with a left hand that catches “Ataman” on the chin, and he ducks a looping left to pop Fiziev with a punch of his own. The Brazilian charges in to press Fiziev against the cage, and he looks for a body lock to slow Fiziev down and starts spamming knees to the thigh. Fiziev keeps his balance when dos Anjos looks for a level change, and dos Anjos comfortable crushes Fiziev against the wire. The full body weight of the former champ is pressed against Fiziev, who finds himself pinned and unable to get any offense off from up close. Fiziev quickly turns to get out, and he steps in with a knee and a right hand as they split. Fiziev delivers two kicks to the body, and dos Anjos replies with one. Fiziev answers with another, and he kicks high and jumps in the air with a knee. Two punches to the body lead to one to the head from the Tiger Muay Thai fighter, and he just misses with a whipping head kick. Dos Anjos thumps a leg kick low and keeps his guard high and tight to block incoming fire until he can shoot for a double. Fiziev’s takedown defense holds up on the attempt, and he absorbs a few knees and an elbow before spinning out. Fiziev steps in with an elbow, and he catches dos Anjos with a pair of right hands. Fiziev sneaks in a left hand that shakes dos Anjos up, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 2
The lightweights clap hands to start off the second frame, and they meet in the center of the Octagon. Fiziev looses a head kick that misses the mark, and dos Anjos pounds him in the torso with a kick. Dos Anjos steps in with a left, and he takes a body shot on the way in. Fiziev catches a second loud body kick, and he clinches up but separates when nothing comes of it. The Brazilian loads up on a left hand, and Fiziev pushes him off and jams his thumb in dos Anjos’ right eye. Dos Anjos takes 30 seconds to blink it out, and when they resume, Fiziev kicks high quickly. Dos Anjos marches him down and catches him with a left hook, and he dives forward for a single. Fiziev spins around, and dos Anjos grabs hold of his back with his hands clasped. Fiziev turns back around to stop it, and he pushes off to split and get back the center of the cage. Dos Anjos keeps light on his feet and strides forward with a straight left hand, and he steps on Fiziev’s foot to hold him in that position. Fiziev once more uses the elastic that is his spine to bend backwards and dodge a head kick, and he counters with an uppercut and a left hook. Fiziev pushes out a jab and takes one clean one back, and dos Anjos kicks him in the ribs. Dos Anjos hunts for a takedown, and Fiziev deftly reverses him and hip tosses dos Anjos to his knees. Fiziev gets up first, and he pushes dos Anjos back to the wire, but cannot grind him there. “Ataman” wings an uppercut, and dos Anjos steps in to clinch in the middle of the Octagon. With a body lock, dos Anjos attempts to take Fiziev down, but once more, he is stopped in his tracks from doing so. Dos Anjos scores a knee on the break, and he pokes at Fiziev with an uppercut on his way back. Dos Anjos reaches him with a right, and Fiziev responds with a powerful one that stuns dos Anjos momentarily. The ex-champ gathers his thoughts and kicks low, and he reaches out with a short right hook. Fiziev kicks him in the body and gets clipped with a long left hand, and the bell rings to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 3
Between rounds, dos Anjos is concerned about a cut below his right elbow. His corner tells him to forget about it, and there is a split on his forearm from blocking a kick from the previous round. The round opens with a few punches from Fiziev, and dos Anjos darts forward in pursuit of a double-leg takedown. Fiziev posts off his arm to keep himself upright, and dos Anjos doggedly pursues it to ground Fiziev. The Brazilian kicks Fiziev’s foot out to get the takedown he was seeking, and Fiziev climbs right back up without concern. As dos Anjos hangs on in the clinch, Fiziev looks at the video screen to find a way out. He does this as dos Anjos goes after a single, yanking his leg free and gaining some separation to work several body kicks. After absorbing a few more blows, dos Anjos darts in with a double, and he pushes Fiziev back but is nowhere close to taking him down. Smith tells them to work as they just hang on in the clinch, and dos Anjos blasts a knee to the liver as Fiziev splits off. The lightweights trade low kicks, and Fiziev wings a short left hook that gets dos Anjos’ attention. A straight right hand from Fiziev makes dos Anjos blink it out, and Fiziev is the one to initiate a clinch, pushing the former champ up against the chain-link fencing. Dos Anjos turns the corner to break apart, and he connects with a chopping leg kick only to eat a jump knee in the process. Dos Anjos tries to keep his head movement to evade multiple straight punches aimed at his head, and the two men trade one after the other in the middle of the cage. The round ends as Fiziev connects with a right.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 4
Ever the veteran, dos Anjos stays a little longer on his stool between rounds, prompting Smith to hurry his corner out and get him back so that they can fight. Fiziev starts off the round with several quick kicks, and dos Anjos plods forward and the two bang heads together. The Brazilian plows forward to go after a takedown, and as dos Anjos does not get it, Smith tells him to work. Fiziev gets the break he seeks, and he splits the guard with a left hand. “Ataman” chains four punches together in a combination, and dos Anjos level changes to push in for a takedown. Fiziev spins him around and jams the ex-champion into the fence, and the position stalls until Fiziev steps back. Dos Anjos nails Fiziev with a flying knee and a few punches, and he attempts to use this momentum to take the fight down, but Fiziev is quick to stop him. Dos Anjos grabs the gloves to break out of this position, only to get warned for his attempt. They break up, and dos Anjos pops Fiziev with a left. The Brazilian snatches up a leg for a single, and Fiziev hops back and keeps his balance. Dos Anjos meets him in the center of the cage to throw hands, and dos Anjos steps in with a back-elbow. Fiziev fights for a sweep takedown, and dos Anjos keeps his feet beneath him and punches his way into a takedown effort. Tired of struggling to get the takedown, “RDA” opts to lift Fiziev clear off the ground and slam him down to the mat. Dos Anjos gloms on to Fiziev while not doing anything from top position, prompting Smith to clap his hands and tell dos Anjos to work. Dos Anjos stays squeezed with his shoulder to the chest of his opponent, and Fiziev powers up with one second to spare. They both land a single punch as the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 dos Anjos
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 dos Anjos
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 dos Anjos
Round 5
Smith tells dos Anjos to stay busy in his positions between rounds, and the final round kicks off with a glove touch. The Brazilian kicks low and Fiziev kicks high, and dos Anjos pushes out with a straight left hand.
Fiziev jumps in with a knee, and when that gets blocked, he releases a left hook that totally demolishes dos Anjos. The former champion falls crashing to the mat, and Fiziev leaps over and hammers him with two consciousness-depriving punches before Smith steps in to call a halt to this contest.
Dos Anjos sits up to protest the stoppage, but there is nothing he can do, as the fight is over. Fiziev runs off to celebrate, earning easily the biggest win of his career and answering several questions that loomed about his talents. “Now we know who is the greatest Rafael in the UFC,” Fiziev shouts in his post-fight interview. He then calls for tennis star Rafael Nadal to determine the ultimate Rafael supremacy. Fiziev doubles down on the callout, boldly claiming that he can beat Nadal in his own sport. It is exceptionally unlikely this will come to fruition, but he did punch his ticket to a huge fight at 155 pounds next. No matter who Fiziev faces next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Rafael Fiziev def. Rafael dos Anjos R5 0:18 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos as a +170 underdog, citing his grappling, size advantage, cardio, and durability. He notes Fiziev is the better striker but has questionable cardio, especially in a 5-round fight. He points out that RDA has not lost in 6 years without being taken down, and Fiziev is unlikely to initiate takedowns. He already has a moneyline bet on RDA at +170.
Big Brady picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing the five-round distance as a key factor. He notes that Fiziev has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in third rounds of past fights, while RDA has proven cardio and experience in championship rounds. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns to test Fiziev's 95% takedown defense and cardio, potentially taking over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for RDA, acknowledging Fiziev could knock him out early.
Cody believes Fiziev has the advantage in striking with better hands and kicks, and his takedown defense is strong. He thinks Fiziev's cardio is sufficient to secure early rounds and then survive if needed. He sees RDA as a gatekeeper and Fiziev as a rising contender, calling it a passing of the torch.
The host discusses the Fiziev vs RDA fight but does not place a bet on it. He acknowledges the value on RDA as an underdog and respects those who pick him, but he personally keeps the fight out of his betting card. He mentions having Fiziev in a parlay but does not elaborate on a clear pick. He notes that Fiziev is younger, faster, and stronger, but RDA is durable and could win by decision. Ultimately, he does not commit to a side.
Paul thinks the price on Fiziev is too wide and expects to get RDA at a better price closer to fight time. He notes RDA's wrestling could be a factor, especially in a five-round fight, and that Fiziev's takedown defense hasn't been fully tested. He calls it a dogger pass situation but leans RDA.
The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, believing RDA's style is tailor-made to lose to Fiziev. He notes Fiziev's body work, takedown defense, and youth advantage. He predicts Fiziev will win the first three rounds decisively, possibly a 4-1 decision, with RDA making a late resurgence but ultimately losing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 149 of 286 | 52% | 179 of 318 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 13:22 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 88 of 172 | 51% | 99 of 185 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 30 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:12 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 27 of 47 | 57% | 32 of 52 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 40 of 84 | 47% | 52 of 97 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 27 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 20 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 38 of 79 | 48% | 38 of 79 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 36 of 73 | 49% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 149 of 286 | 52% | 119 of 255 | 23 of 24 | 7 of 7 | 84 of 198 | 7 of 8 | 58 of 80 |
| Renato Moicano | 88 of 172 | 51% | 77 of 158 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 81 of 164 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 22 of 34 | 64% | 17 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 14 |
| Renato Moicano | 10 of 23 | 43% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 27 of 47 | 57% | 19 of 39 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 7 |
| Renato Moicano | 15 of 29 | 51% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 40 of 84 | 47% | 34 of 77 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 23 of 38 |
| Renato Moicano | 15 of 25 | 60% | 14 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 22 of 42 | 52% | 17 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 21 |
| Renato Moicano | 12 of 22 | 54% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 38 of 79 | 48% | 32 of 73 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Renato Moicano | 36 of 73 | 49% | 33 of 67 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Fiziev but is hesitant, noting his brain says Fiziev but his heart says RDA. He highlights Fiziev's phenomenal striking and takedown defense, but questions his cardio over five rounds. He points out that RDA hasn't been finished in six years and only loses to wrestlers who take him down. He considers a plus 5.5 round bet on RDA.
Cody is torn because Moicano looked good on short notice against Hernandez, but the five-round nature favors RDA's experience and cardio. He notes RDA has fought 25 minutes many times and is a big lightweight who fought at welterweight, while Moicano has never gone five rounds and gassed in the Ortega fight. The catchweight of 160 also helps RDA. Cody ultimately flips to RDA but is hesitant due to the short-notice variable.
Daniel Levi picks Renato Moicano for the upset, but with hesitation. He notes that Moicano is the much bigger man with a size and reach advantage, and has good volume and a solid black belt. He points out that RDA has been taken down frequently in recent fights (by Usman, Colby, Chiesa, Leon) and that Moicano could have success in grappling exchanges. However, he conditions his pick on Moicano looking in shape at the weigh-in; if Moicano appears fat or out of shape, he would switch to RDA. He views this as a dog-or-pass situation and believes Moicano is on an upward trajectory.
RDA is a tough veteran with excellent cardio and durability, while Moicano is taking the fight on four days' notice with travel and weight cut issues. Moicano will likely come out strong early but fade as the fight goes on. RDA's grappling and pressure will wear on Moicano, leading to a finish in the later rounds. The short notice and travel are huge red flags for Moicano.
Paul initially considered Moicano as a live underdog but after tape study flipped to RDA. He emphasizes RDA's five-round experience, size advantage (fought at 170), and clean camp versus Moicano's short notice and history of gassing. Paul points out Moicano's takedowns zap his cardio and he struggles striking backwards, while RDA mixes grappling and pace well. He calls it dog or pass but leans RDA.
The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano (referred to as 'fizzyev') over Rafael dos Anjos, calling it a lock. He notes Moicano's speed advantage and RDA's decline at 155, especially his chin. He predicts Moicano will chew up RDA's legs with kicks in the first round, and when RDA pressures in the second, Moicano will catch him with a straight right for a TKO. He mentions RDA's only chance was in a five-rounder, but Moicano's patience and striking will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 98 of 190 | 51% | 134 of 226 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 92 of 162 | 56% | 155 of 231 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 14:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 45 | 37% | 17 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 27 of 41 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 29 of 46 | 63% | 35 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 27 of 47 | 57% | 31 of 51 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 28 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:17 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 26 of 55 | 47% | 39 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 34 of 57 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 22 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 35 of 47 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 4:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 98 of 190 | 51% | 64 of 147 | 20 of 29 | 14 of 14 | 76 of 161 | 21 of 28 | 1 of 1 |
| Paul Felder | 92 of 162 | 56% | 53 of 113 | 35 of 45 | 4 of 4 | 61 of 125 | 26 of 29 | 5 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 45 | 37% | 8 of 33 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Felder | 22 of 34 | 64% | 13 of 24 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 28 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 29 of 46 | 63% | 23 of 38 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 38 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Felder | 27 of 47 | 57% | 19 of 36 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 40 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 12 of 21 | 57% | 5 of 11 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 13 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Felder | 13 of 18 | 72% | 7 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 26 of 55 | 47% | 20 of 48 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Felder | 19 of 41 | 46% | 7 of 26 | 11 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 2 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 14 of 23 | 60% | 8 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Paul Felder | 11 of 22 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
Big Brady picks RDA because he had a full camp training for Islam Makhachev, which should help his wrestling and grappling against Felder, who took the fight on five days' notice. He notes RDA is the more technical striker with higher output, and Felder is dangerous but RDA has a solid chin. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns and grind out a decision, possibly a late finish.
Daniel picks dos Anjos because he believes Felder's timing will be off due to lack of sparring and wrestling preparation on short notice. He notes dos Anjos has been training for a five-round fight against Islam Makhachev and is motivated dropping back to 155. He also points out that Felder historically struggles with volume and that dos Anjos can mix in takedowns, referencing Edson Barboza taking Felder down. He acknowledges Felder's durability and power but thinks dos Anjos will outwork him.
The host favors Rafael dos Anjos due to his experience in five-round fights, having gone to the fourth round or later in seven of his last nine five-round bouts. He believes dos Anjos's aggressive striking, leg kicks, and superior jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Paul Felder, who is taking the fight on six days' notice and has only one five-round fight experience. The host notes Felder's durability but expects dos Anjos to win via decision, possibly mixing in takedowns and ground control.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing Felder's short notice and difficult weight cut as major disadvantages. He believes dos Anjos will invest in body and leg kicks early, then finish Felder by exhaustion in the later rounds. He notes that dos Anjos has been training for this fight and is not a big lightweight, while Felder's reach advantage is neutralized by dos Anjos' similar reach. He also mentions that dos Anjos will be more confident on the feet without facing a wrestler.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 23 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 9 of 51 | 17% | 54 of 107 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 10:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 2 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 7 of 34 | 20% | 12 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 40 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 14 of 36 | 38% | 2 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 9 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 9 of 51 | 17% | 6 of 45 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 of 12 | 8% | 0 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 8 of 24 | 33% | 0 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 7 of 34 | 20% | 5 of 29 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Daniel picks RDA to win by decision, acknowledging that Chiesa might give him some trouble early with his grappling and size. He notes that RDA has been taken down 28 times in his last four fights but believes RDA's superior striking and jiu-jitsu will prevail. He mentions that RDA is on the tail end of his career but still the better fighter.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, emphasizing that the fight is three rounds, which favors Chiesa's ability to hold dos Anjos down for two rounds. He notes Chiesa is a large welterweight with a significant reach advantage, and that dos Anjos may come back in the third but it will be too late. He predicts Chiesa wins the first two rounds and loses the third, winning by decision.
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