UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi Next Fight
Age 29
Height 6' 3"
Reach 81.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 31
Height 6' 4"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 250 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Brendson Ribeiro
3.04 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.91 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.85 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
21.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Caio Machado
5.82 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
2.87 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Brendson Ribeiro - Fight History
Submission R1 2:52 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 0 7 of 15 46% 23 of 38 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:56
Brendson Ribeiro 0 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 0 7 of 15 46% 23 of 38 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:56
Brendson Ribeiro 0 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 7 of 15 46% 6 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 4 of 4
Brendson Ribeiro 8 of 17 47% 5 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 3 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 7 of 15 46% 6 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 4 of 4
Brendson Ribeiro 8 of 17 47% 5 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 3 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Angelo is extremely confident in Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev, calling it the easiest pick on the card. He notes Yakhyaev is a good prospect with wrestling, striking, and power, while Brendson Ribeiro is hitable and has a quit button. However, he strongly advises against betting at -1400 odds, calling it not worth the risk.

Angelo mentions the odds -1400 and says 'Do nothing with this. You cannot bet on a minus400 favorite.' He suggests finding a prop instead.
"Yakayv, no discussion. He wins this fight 10 out of 10 times."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Big Brady is extremely confident Yakhyaev will win, calling it 'dumb matchmaking.' He expects Yakhyaev to knock out Ribeiro within the first minute, as he has done in recent fights. He notes Ribeiro has no chin and that Yakhyaev finishes fights quickly.

Yakhyaev by KO in first minute
"Yakhyaev's going to come forward and he's going to knock out Brendson Ribeiro in the first a minute of the fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Cody is confident Yakhyaev wins by first-round knockout, given Ribeiro's history of first-round KO losses. He notes Yakhyaev's well-rounded skills and the mismatch, but warns about the prohibitive moneyline.

first round knockout +130
"I got first round knockout for Yaki being that he is probably he's wellrounded. He can submit you just as easily can knock you out. But I think in Brenson Rivero's case, his last five knockout or his last five …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lock picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

James is extremely confident in Yakhyaev, calling it a 'murder scene.' He highlights Yakhyaev's explosiveness, wrestling, and finishing ability, while noting Ribeiro's lack of durability and short-notice camp. He predicts a round one KO, stating Yakhyaev is a legitimate prospect who will run through Ribeiro. He mentions the odds are too high to bet but is certain of the outcome.

Round 1 KO prediction
"I'm calling a round one finish for Yaky. The guy is minus 1,400 on a money line. I don't really want to speak too much in depth about this one, boys."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

James is very high on Yakhyaev, calling him one of the greatest fighters in the division and predicting he will steamroll Ribeiro and become a champion. He compares his confidence to his previous correct call on Loena Cavana.

"I think this guy is going to steamroll Brener Ribeiro and I think he's going to become either a champion or fight for the belt in the next 3 years."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

The host is extremely confident in Yakhyaev, citing his insane ceiling, dangerous grappling and striking, and a horrible stylistic matchup for Ribeiro. He expects a first-round finish and advises against parlaying the heavy chalk, instead looking for props. He notes Ribeiro's recent losses and lack of success against similar competition.

under 1.5 rounds at -380; round 1 prop on Yakhyaev
"I think Yaky runs through him as well. I think he finishes him in the first round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Paul is confident Yakhyaev wins, likely by submission or KO in the first round. He notes the price is prohibitive but suggests playing the round one prop or parlay.

round one prop
"Maybe maybe the move is just eat the chalk on the the round one prop, which is super like minus 227 is the best I can play on that. Um I can parlay that up. That's probably how I go …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

The MMA Guru confidently picks Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev, citing his undefeated record, fast starts, and nasty finishes. He notes that Brendson Ribeiro has been finished multiple times early in fights and expects Yakhyaev to secure a first-round TKO.

First-round TKO predicted
"Against someone like Yakhyaev who starts so fast and so dangerous, it's a recipe for a first round TKO for him."
LOSS vs Oumar Sy
KO R1 4:42 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Oumar Sy 0 17 of 43 39% 21 of 49 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:28
Brendson Ribeiro 0 5 of 14 35% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Oumar Sy 0 17 of 43 39% 21 of 49 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:28
Brendson Ribeiro 0 5 of 14 35% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Oumar Sy 17 of 43 39% 14 of 38 0 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 11 0 of 0 13 of 32
Brendson Ribeiro 5 of 14 35% 2 of 10 1 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Oumar Sy 17 of 43 39% 14 of 38 0 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 11 0 of 0 13 of 32
Brendson Ribeiro 5 of 14 35% 2 of 10 1 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

Angelo picks Oumar Sy confidently, despite holding a grudge from Sy's previous loss. He acknowledges Sy's athleticism, speed, and power, and believes he can weather Ribeiro's early danger and then dominate with wrestling. He criticizes Ribeiro's quit button and susceptibility to being hit. He expects Sy to win, likely by wrestling, but warns that if he loses, he should be cut.

"I think Omar Sai wins here. I'm pretty confident that he wins here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

Big Brady is very confident in Oumar Sy, calling it a layup. He highlights Ribeiro's 0% takedown defense and poor ground game. He expects Sy to take him down easily and finish via submission or TKO in the first round, despite Sy's previous failure as a heavy favorite.

Sy by submission, round 1
"I'll say Omar C wins this fight by first round sub."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

The host thinks this is a great matchup for Sy to bounce back after his first pro defeat. He expects Sy to put pressure on Ribeiro, drag him to the ground, and open up a finishing position via ground and pound or submission.

ground and pound or submission
"Look for C to really put the pressure on Hibetto, eventually drag him to the ground, and I think he'll be able to open up a finishing position, whether it is by ground and pound or by submission."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

The Guru picks Oumar Sy, citing his well-roundedness, patience, and footwork. He believes Sy can control the pace and avoid Ribeiro's wildness, similar to how Alonzo Menifield couldn't finish Sy. He predicts a 30-27 decision win, with Sy's movement neutralizing Ribeiro's chaos.

"I'm going to go with Umar Sai. I think a lot of people are going with Umar Sai here."
KO R1 3:25 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Azamat Murzakanov 1 27 of 36 75% 29 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Brendson Ribeiro 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Azamat Murzakanov 1 27 of 36 75% 29 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Brendson Ribeiro 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Azamat Murzakanov 27 of 36 75% 23 of 32 4 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 10 0 of 0 20 of 26
Brendson Ribeiro 8 of 22 36% 3 of 16 2 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Azamat Murzakanov 27 of 36 75% 23 of 32 4 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 10 0 of 0 20 of 26
Brendson Ribeiro 8 of 22 36% 3 of 16 2 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Angelo picks Azamat Murzakanov confidently, noting his power, wrestling, and durability. He highlights that Azamat has a knockdown in all five UFC fights and showed a second gear when rocked by Alonzo Menifield. He thinks Brendson Ribeiro is hittable and has a quit button. He includes Azamat in a parlay as one of his most confident picks.

Parlayed with Yoo Joo-sang.
"Azimat Makonov is the pick. I do have him in a parlay."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Big Brady is confident in Murzakanov despite his age (jokes he is in his 70s). He praises Murzakanov's striking and well-rounded game, and thinks Ribeiro is hittable and doesn't like getting hit. He expects Murzakanov to find a knockout early, possibly in the first round, noting his history of second- and third-round KOs but thinking this one comes sooner.

Murzakanov by KO in round 1
"I think Mzakana probably puts this guy to sleep. So I'm going to take uh the old man Ozamot Mzakonov. He's 90 years old, but I think he gets it done. I think he gets it done by first round …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

The fight might be closer than the odds indicate, especially if Murzakanov leans on his striking. Ribeiro has a huge height and reach advantage that could cause trouble, but Murzakanov is expected to eventually get to his grappling and find a ground-and-pound finish.

win by ground and pound
"I think it's just a matter of time before Makonov decides to get to his grappling, eventually taking this fight to the ground and finding that ground and pound finish."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

The MMA Guru picks Azamat Murzakanov, praising his deceptive speed, composure, and power. He compares his striking to Fedor and notes he beat Dustin Jacoby and destroyed Yorgan De Castro. He believes Murzakanov sets traps and will finish Ribeiro by TKO in round one or two. He calls the matchmaking dumb as Murzakanov is a level above.

Finish prediction: TKO in round one or two.
"I'm going to go with Azamat Makanov. I just think his striking's too quick."
Submission R2 1:28 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diyar Nurgozhay 0 17 of 39 43% 20 of 42 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:49
Brendson Ribeiro 1 28 of 58 48% 29 of 60 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diyar Nurgozhay 0 15 of 35 42% 16 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brendson Ribeiro 1 23 of 50 46% 24 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
2 Diyar Nurgozhay 0 2 of 4 50% 4 of 6 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:49
Brendson Ribeiro 0 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diyar Nurgozhay 17 of 39 43% 5 of 21 7 of 13 5 of 5 16 of 36 1 of 3 0 of 0
Brendson Ribeiro 28 of 58 48% 13 of 35 5 of 10 10 of 13 28 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diyar Nurgozhay 15 of 35 42% 4 of 19 7 of 12 4 of 4 14 of 32 1 of 3 0 of 0
Brendson Ribeiro 23 of 50 46% 12 of 32 5 of 9 6 of 9 23 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Diyar Nurgozhay 2 of 4 50% 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brendson Ribeiro 5 of 8 62% 1 of 3 0 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Diyar Nurgozhay

Angelo picks Diyar Nurgozhay over Brendson Ribeiro. He is very high on Nurgozhay as a prospect, praising his wrestling, finishing ability, and quality wins. He notes Ribeiro is hittable and has a quit button. Angelo recommends betting on Nurgozhay now before the line skyrockets.

"Dr is going to be the pick and I would bet on him now before this line absolutely Skyrock."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Diyar Nurgozhay

Big Brady picks Diyar Nurgozhay, praising his wrestling, vicious ground and pound, and power. He is not sold on Brendson Ribeiro, citing poor striking defense, durability, ground game, and heart, noting that Ribeiro's loss to Magomed Gadzhiyasulov is aging poorly. Brady believes if Nurgozhay gets on top, he will pound Ribeiro out. He predicts a second-round knockout for Nurgozhay.

Nurgozhay second round KO
"I like nuro here... nuro second round KO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Jean Matsumoto, citing his youth, volume, and improved wrestling. He notes that Miles Johns has abandoned his wrestling and is low volume. He believes Matsumoto's performance against Rob Font showed he can compete at a higher level and that he will outwork Johns.

"John Masumoto, meanwhile, he's six years younger, right? 25 versus 31, but he he was 16 and0 prior to the Rob Font fight. Rob Font fought half of the best guys in the division. He's a 10-year vet, very tricky, …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Diyar Nurgozhay

Connor agrees, describing Nurgozhay as a pillar-like fighter with Sambo timing and a devastating uppercut. He notes that Ribeiro is a classic light heavyweight with all power and no breaks, and that he will likely get caught by Nurgozhay's counters. He also mentions that Nurgozhay is durable and has a coherent striking game.

"I suspect Habero unless he gets very lucky is going to get nuked."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Diyar Nurgozhay

The host believes Nurgozhay will walk through Ribeiro using a grapple-heavy approach, taking him down and finding a dominant position to finish.

finish
"I believe noazi will walk through hio in this matchup utilizing his grapple heavy approach taking hio to the ground and eventually finding a dominant enough position to find the finish."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul picks Matsumoto, noting that Miles Johns has been trying to strike more but lacks volume and power. He believes Matsumoto's wrestling and volume will be too much for Johns, who has not been using his wrestling effectively.

"Pick for me is Jean Matsumoto. Your thoughts?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Diyar Nurgozhay

The MMA Guru picks Diyar Nurgozhay, citing his well-rounded game, power, and submission ability. He notes Nurgozhay has a win over a PFL winner and knocked out a guy on the Contender Series with a head kick. He criticizes Brendson Ribeiro's mixed results, including a loss to Mingyang Zhang, and thinks Nurgozhay will knock him out on the feet. He predicts a first-round TKO debut win.

First round TKO
"I'm going to go with the momentum of uh nurer I think for this fight and I'm gonna say TKO win in the first round big debut win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Diyar Nurgozhay

Zane picks Nurgozhay as a top light heavyweight prospect with a complete game. He notes that Nurgozhay has excellent counter-striking, particularly his uppercut, and that Ribeiro is formless and likely to get nuked. He compares Nurgozhay to Ankalaev in terms of patience and defensive boxing, and notes that Ribeiro has been knocked out in three of his four recent losses.

Odds: Nurgozhay opened -249, now -368; Ribeiro opened +201, now +284. Zane says it could be wider.
"Nurgle is a genuinely good pickup for the UFC... I don't think it's even too soon for him right now."
WIN vs Caio Machado
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brendson Ribeiro 0 76 of 184 41% 79 of 187 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Caio Machado 0 49 of 131 37% 49 of 131 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brendson Ribeiro 0 22 of 43 51% 22 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Machado 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brendson Ribeiro 0 22 of 58 37% 22 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Machado 0 12 of 36 33% 12 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brendson Ribeiro 0 32 of 83 38% 35 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Caio Machado 0 21 of 61 34% 21 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brendson Ribeiro 76 of 184 41% 24 of 114 33 of 47 19 of 23 76 of 184 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Machado 49 of 131 37% 25 of 93 16 of 25 8 of 13 49 of 130 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brendson Ribeiro 22 of 43 51% 3 of 21 7 of 10 12 of 12 22 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Machado 16 of 34 47% 6 of 21 5 of 6 5 of 7 16 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brendson Ribeiro 22 of 58 37% 6 of 31 11 of 18 5 of 9 22 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Machado 12 of 36 33% 5 of 22 4 of 9 3 of 5 12 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Brendson Ribeiro 32 of 83 38% 15 of 62 15 of 19 2 of 2 32 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Machado 21 of 61 34% 14 of 50 7 of 10 0 of 1 21 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Angelo picks Caio Machado as the cleaner fighter with more ways to win. He notes Machado is well-rounded, has volume and footwork, good clinch work, and underrated BJJ. He acknowledges Brendson Ribeiro could come in wild and connect, but outside of that, Machado is the better fighter. He shares a funny anecdote about accidentally messaging Machado instead of another fighter.

"I think Kyle should win he's the cleaner fighter he's more buttoned up he has more ways to win obviously Breon could come in wild and connect but outside of that Kyle's just the better fighter so Kyle's going to …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Big Brady picks Caio Machado to win by decision. He notes that Ribeiro has poor cardio (about 7.5 minutes of gas) and that Machado, moving down from heavyweight, should have better cardio and volume. Brady thinks Machado can take over as the fight progresses, either by outworking Ribeiro on the feet or by taking him down. He mentions Ribeiro's takedown defense looked awful in his last fight.

"I'm going Machado here I'm going Machado to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Cody picks Caio Machado, noting his improved physique at light heavyweight and his volume striking. He criticizes Ribeiro as a glass cannon with poor cardio and durability, and believes Machado's cardio, volume, and grappling advantage will allow him to outwork Ribeiro. He also mentions Machado's experience and the favorable judging in Canada.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think Machado will either win the decision or just beat him late when he Fades so sign me up for bigfoot first time ever I'm back at him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Daniel Vreeland picks Caio Machado to win his light heavyweight debut, despite acknowledging his poor technique. He notes that Brendson Ribeiro has a questionable chin and heart, getting hurt in every fight and covering up when in trouble. Vreeland believes Machado's toughness and willingness to push through adversity will overcome Ribeiro's technical edge, especially since Ribeiro has shown a tendency to quit.

"I'm gonna go Kyle Machado to come out here and win his uh light heavyweight debut"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Lucrative James picks Brendson Ribeiro, citing his early finishing upside and Machado's questionable durability. He notes Machado is moving down from heavyweight, which may zap his speed advantage, and that Ribeiro has power to finish early. He also mentions Ribeiro's poor fight IQ and cardio but believes he can get the win.

"I'm going to pick Brendan rero in this fight or Brenson rero I should say"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Machado is going down to light heavyweight for the first time after starting 0-2 in the UFC, but this is a winnable fight where he should have the overall advantage and grind Ribeiro out, winning on the scorecards.

"I do think this is a very winnable fight for him where he should be able to have the overall advantage and grind Ribeiro out winning this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Paul also picks Machado, citing his volume and cardio advantage over Ribeiro, who he sees as a power puncher with questionable durability. He notes that Machado has looked better at light heavyweight and should be able to outwork Ribeiro. He also mentions the over 1.5 rounds prop as a possibility.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think Machado will either win the decision or just beat him late when he Fades so sign me up for bigfoot first time ever I'm back at him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

The Guru picks Brendson Ribeiro over Caio Machado, though he expresses disdain for heavyweights. He notes Ribeiro's close loss to Gadzhi Omargadzhiev and believes regional heavyweights are better athletes. He predicts a TKO win for Ribeiro.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Brenson riro getting a TKO win over Machado"
Decision (majority) (29–28, 29–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov 0 26 of 39 66% 93 of 135 5 of 5 100% 0 0 9:59
Brendson Ribeiro 0 17 of 35 48% 29 of 51 3 of 6 50% 1 1 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Gadzhiyasulov 0 8 of 11 72% 29 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
Brendson Ribeiro 0 11 of 22 50% 14 of 29 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:36
2 Magomed Gadzhiyasulov 0 11 of 18 61% 33 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:41
Brendson Ribeiro 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 13 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:20
3 Magomed Gadzhiyasulov 0 7 of 10 70% 31 of 40 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:35
Brendson Ribeiro 0 1 of 3 33% 7 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov 26 of 39 66% 15 of 25 4 of 4 7 of 10 12 of 23 4 of 4 10 of 12
Brendson Ribeiro 17 of 35 48% 6 of 19 4 of 4 7 of 12 13 of 29 3 of 5 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Gadzhiyasulov 8 of 11 72% 1 of 3 3 of 3 4 of 5 4 of 7 4 of 4 0 of 0
Brendson Ribeiro 11 of 22 50% 5 of 14 2 of 2 4 of 6 7 of 16 3 of 5 1 of 1
2 Magomed Gadzhiyasulov 11 of 18 61% 7 of 12 1 of 1 3 of 5 7 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 5
Brendson Ribeiro 5 of 10 50% 0 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 6 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Magomed Gadzhiyasulov 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 7
Brendson Ribeiro 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov

Angelo picks Magomed but expresses skepticism about the wide odds, noting Magomed's record includes many 'fake fights' on carpet in hotel lobbies. He acknowledges Magomed has solid striking, wrestling, and body work, but Ribeiro is dangerous and hitable. He decided not to include Magomed in the safety parlay due to the debut factor and unproven competition. He still expects Magomed to win because Ribeiro gets hit too much and has a quit button.

Not in safety parlay due to debut; $9,300 DraftKings salary mentioned
"maged should win this fight he's going to be the pick he's got power he's got long kicks got wrestling but Brenson can be dangerous hitable but dangerous"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov

Big Brady picks Magomed Gadzhiyasulov because he believes he has more paths to victory: on the feet with a big shot or on the ground with a TKO. He questions Ribeiro's durability, noting he has been finished five times, often in the first round. While Gadzhiyasulov's competition has been low-level, Brady thinks his skills are sufficient to exploit Ribeiro's weaknesses. He predicts a second-round TKO.

win by second round TKO
"I'm going to take the guy who I think has more pass to Victory and that's going to be gaji lulov I'll take him to win this fight by second round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov

Cody picks Gadzhiyasulov but suggests the over 1.5 rounds as a better play. He notes Gadzhiyasulov is a decision machine with questionable finishing ability, while Ribeiro is a glass cannon who either wins early or loses early. He expects Gadzhiyasulov to grind out a win past the first round.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think he wins I don't love the money line you want to get greasy with it the over one and a half plus 200 certainly got some value"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov

Daniel Vreeland leans with Magomed Gadzhiyasulov but is unsure due to unknowns. He notes Gadzhiyasulov's wrestling and grinding style, while Ribeiro is a banger with power but a questionable chin. He expects Gadzhiyasulov to win a decision but acknowledges Ribeiro's knockout potential.

"I'll lean with the favorite but I don't know I don't know"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov

Jacob agrees Magomed should win as the more technical and tactical fighter, but warns that Ribeiro is a dangerous puncher who will give himself a chance. He notes Magomed has wrestling as a plan B if he feels pressure, but if he eats a clean shot he could get put out. Jacob calls Magomed a 'parlay buster' waiting to happen and says picks and bets are different—he picks Magomed but understands betting on Ribeiro for the KO.

"Magan bed's that guy that this week should win could look like a minus 500 favorite if he does it or it's going to be a [ __ ] parlay Buster when he get [ __ ] sparked"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov

JP picks Godzilla (Gadzhiyasulov) by decision, noting his undefeated record and Ribeiro's recent loss. He highlights Ribeiro's reach advantage but believes Godzilla's wrestling and control will be decisive. Brevan adds that Godzilla's Dagestani wrestling base gives him a huge ground advantage, though he warns about Godzilla's tendency to back up and engage in unnecessary exchanges, which could open a window for Ribeiro to land a KO. Both expect a decision win for Godzilla.

"I'm gonna pick Godzilla by probably decision because both of these guys what he's got three wins by decision the other guy's losses by a decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov

Paul picks Gadzhiyasulov, citing his wrestling and control. He notes Ribeiro's only path is a first-round knockout, but Gadzhiyasulov's style should neutralize that. He acknowledges the danger early but expects a win.

"I think gadzi YULA wins here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov

The MMA Guru picks Magomed Gadzhiyasulov over Brendson Ribeiro, calling it straightforward. He notes that Ribeiro relies on KO power and reach but was recently knocked out by Mingyang Zhang. He believes Gadzhiyasulov is more technical on the feet and has a ground game, while Ribeiro has been KO'd in his last three losses. He expects a first-round finish, likely by TKO.

first round finish
"I think this is a pretty straightforward fight to predict dangerous dangerous [__] the pair of them nasty magam Med's really I think I would say a bit more technical on the fet okay whereas Brenson riro kind of just …"
LOSS vs Zhang Mingyang
KO (punches) R1 1:41 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Mingyang 1 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Brendson Ribeiro 0 14 of 31 45% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Mingyang 1 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Brendson Ribeiro 0 14 of 31 45% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Mingyang 17 of 28 60% 13 of 19 2 of 5 2 of 4 14 of 25 0 of 0 3 of 3
Brendson Ribeiro 14 of 31 45% 14 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Mingyang 17 of 28 60% 13 of 19 2 of 5 2 of 4 14 of 25 0 of 0 3 of 3
Brendson Ribeiro 14 of 31 45% 14 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mingyang Zhang vs. Brendson Ribeiro
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zhang (-142), Ribeiro (+120)

Round 1
Opening up the ESPN prelims is likely to be an explosive one, as these two fighters come in with 31 finishes across their 31 pro wins. Zhang (16-6, 1-0 UFC) worked his way to the UFC courtesy of a spot on the Road to UFC qualifier, and Ribeiro (15-5, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC) is yet another DWCS pickup. With the majority of their combined victories via first-round stoppage, referee Mike Beltran cannot take his eyes off the prize for even a second. The light heavyweights hesitantly touch ‘em up, and Zhang moves forward to kick low to start off. Ribeiro swings for the bleachers, and when he comes up short, Zhang boots him in the ribs. Ribeiro flicks out a jab that stings Zhang, and Ribeiro is quick to follow with a one-two that stuns him and draws a smile from the Chinese contender. Ribeiro unloads a pair of punches, and Zhang stands right in front of him and is ready to hurl back with bad intentions. Ribeiro bloodies up Zhang’s mouth, and they both hurl huge shots at one another. Zhang takes a right hand on the eye socket, and he raises his arm to call time. Beltran tells him to keep fighting, and fight he does.
Zhang sticks out a jab, wings a right hook and chains it into a ferocious left hook that all land cleanly, and Ribeiro might be out before the back of his head bounces of the canvas. Just to seal the deal, Zhang drives down three jackhammering hammerfists, and Beltran recognizes that Ribeiro’s goose is cooked and waves the fight off.
In the hierarchy of the jungle, “Mountain Tiger” destroyed “Gorilla” tonight.

The Official Result
Mingyang Zhang def. Brendson Ribeiro R1 1:41 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Angelo picks Brendson Ribeiro as the underdog, citing his more dangerous offense and Zhang's hollow record. He notes Ribeiro is hittable and can be finished, so he won't bet on him unless the line moves further. He thinks Ribeiro's aggression and power can get the job done.

"I'm going the dog here I like robero I think his offense is more the more dangerous of the two"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Big Brady picks Brendson Ribeiro as a dog, citing his significant reach advantage (6 inches) and power. He notes that Zhang Mingyang is hitable and has been knocked out three times. He acknowledges both fighters have red flags but believes Ribeiro's offense and length will be too much. He says nobody should be favored here and has low confidence.

Ribeiro by KO, round 1
"I will take the dog here in Brenson robero just because this guy is going to have a pretty significant reach six inch reach Advantage he hits very very hard"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Cody picks Ribeiro, recalling his terrifying appearance on Contender Series. He notes Zhang's loss to a fraudulent fighter (Oscar Mova) as a red flag. He believes Ribeiro's ground game gives him an edge if he can land first. He sees this as a dog-or-pass fight and takes the plus money.

under 1.5 rounds (expected to be juiced)
"I'll go with the devil I know in the fact that like Brenson robero for 15 or he was 14 and five going into Contender series like I watched him and I'm like that's a dangerous man..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Daniel picks Brendson Ribeiro as a dog. He dislikes Zhang's competition level, noting he has fought short heavy Chinese men he's never heard of. He also cites Zhang's inactivity (1.5 years). He likes Ribeiro's length, well-roundedness, and finishing ability. He acknowledges that Ribeiro's regional Brazilian competition isn't great either, but prefers his Contender Series performance over Zhang's Road to UFC wins.

"I'm going with the dog I'm going with hiier here um I really don't like jiang's competition when you look at it on paper... I like hi's length I like his well-roundedness obviously I like his finishing ability."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Daniel Vreeland picks Brendson Ribeiro, favoring the Brazilian over the Chinese fighter. He notes Ribeiro's better level of competition, training at a good camp, and six-inch reach advantage. He believes both are hittable but expects Ribeiro to knock out Zhang. He does not recommend a big wager.

"I slightly favor Brenson as well... just give me Brazil over China in MMA."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Jeff picks Zhang Mingyang, disagreeing with Daniel. He was impressed by Zhang's performance on Road to UFC, where he beat George Tokos with sharp boxing and composure. He notes that Zhang's punches come in straight and he doesn't overextend, even when hurting opponents. In contrast, he criticizes Ribeiro for overextending on the Contender Series despite a reach advantage. He believes Zhang will pick Ribeiro apart and find a knockout.

"I'm gonna go with mingyang here and uh I you know I was in the same boat as you with mingy Yang's competition going into that road to the UFC fight... I was infinitely impressed."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Ribeiro is calm under pressure and can throw power from his back foot. His key is taking Mingyang to the mat, where he can find dominant positions and land big shots for a TKO. Expects a finish in the first or second round.

"I think his key to victory in this match will be able to take mingyang to the mat and from there he does great work in terms of finding the dominant position required to posture up and land big shots …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Paul picks Ribeiro as a dog, noting both fighters are glass cannons with first-round finishes. He mentions Ribeiro's ground game and ability to swarm with ground and pound. He sees this as a classic dog-or-pass fight and takes the plus money on Ribeiro.

under 1.5 rounds (expected to be juiced)
"I got to go with rerel plus 125 Underdog someone's getting cracked I take the under on this thing the fight doesn't go the distance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

The MMA Guru picks Brendson Ribeiro, trusting his wins over better competition and his reach advantage (81 vs 75.5 inches). He notes Ribeiro's straight punches could counter Zhang's hooks. He worries about Zhang's ground game but trusts Ribeiro to get a KO. He also mentions Zhang's frustrating path to the UFC and Ribeiro's natural momentum.

"I am gonna go Brendson Ribeiro over Zhang Mingyang... I trust a western can over an Eastern can."
Caio Machado - Fight History
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brendson Ribeiro 0 76 of 184 41% 79 of 187 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Caio Machado 0 49 of 131 37% 49 of 131 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brendson Ribeiro 0 22 of 43 51% 22 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Machado 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brendson Ribeiro 0 22 of 58 37% 22 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Machado 0 12 of 36 33% 12 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brendson Ribeiro 0 32 of 83 38% 35 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Caio Machado 0 21 of 61 34% 21 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brendson Ribeiro 76 of 184 41% 24 of 114 33 of 47 19 of 23 76 of 184 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Machado 49 of 131 37% 25 of 93 16 of 25 8 of 13 49 of 130 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brendson Ribeiro 22 of 43 51% 3 of 21 7 of 10 12 of 12 22 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Machado 16 of 34 47% 6 of 21 5 of 6 5 of 7 16 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brendson Ribeiro 22 of 58 37% 6 of 31 11 of 18 5 of 9 22 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Machado 12 of 36 33% 5 of 22 4 of 9 3 of 5 12 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Brendson Ribeiro 32 of 83 38% 15 of 62 15 of 19 2 of 2 32 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Machado 21 of 61 34% 14 of 50 7 of 10 0 of 1 21 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Angelo picks Caio Machado as the cleaner fighter with more ways to win. He notes Machado is well-rounded, has volume and footwork, good clinch work, and underrated BJJ. He acknowledges Brendson Ribeiro could come in wild and connect, but outside of that, Machado is the better fighter. He shares a funny anecdote about accidentally messaging Machado instead of another fighter.

"I think Kyle should win he's the cleaner fighter he's more buttoned up he has more ways to win obviously Breon could come in wild and connect but outside of that Kyle's just the better fighter so Kyle's going to …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Big Brady picks Caio Machado to win by decision. He notes that Ribeiro has poor cardio (about 7.5 minutes of gas) and that Machado, moving down from heavyweight, should have better cardio and volume. Brady thinks Machado can take over as the fight progresses, either by outworking Ribeiro on the feet or by taking him down. He mentions Ribeiro's takedown defense looked awful in his last fight.

"I'm going Machado here I'm going Machado to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Cody picks Caio Machado, noting his improved physique at light heavyweight and his volume striking. He criticizes Ribeiro as a glass cannon with poor cardio and durability, and believes Machado's cardio, volume, and grappling advantage will allow him to outwork Ribeiro. He also mentions Machado's experience and the favorable judging in Canada.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think Machado will either win the decision or just beat him late when he Fades so sign me up for bigfoot first time ever I'm back at him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Daniel Vreeland picks Caio Machado to win his light heavyweight debut, despite acknowledging his poor technique. He notes that Brendson Ribeiro has a questionable chin and heart, getting hurt in every fight and covering up when in trouble. Vreeland believes Machado's toughness and willingness to push through adversity will overcome Ribeiro's technical edge, especially since Ribeiro has shown a tendency to quit.

"I'm gonna go Kyle Machado to come out here and win his uh light heavyweight debut"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Lucrative James picks Brendson Ribeiro, citing his early finishing upside and Machado's questionable durability. He notes Machado is moving down from heavyweight, which may zap his speed advantage, and that Ribeiro has power to finish early. He also mentions Ribeiro's poor fight IQ and cardio but believes he can get the win.

"I'm going to pick Brendan rero in this fight or Brenson rero I should say"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Machado is going down to light heavyweight for the first time after starting 0-2 in the UFC, but this is a winnable fight where he should have the overall advantage and grind Ribeiro out, winning on the scorecards.

"I do think this is a very winnable fight for him where he should be able to have the overall advantage and grind Ribeiro out winning this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Paul also picks Machado, citing his volume and cardio advantage over Ribeiro, who he sees as a power puncher with questionable durability. He notes that Machado has looked better at light heavyweight and should be able to outwork Ribeiro. He also mentions the over 1.5 rounds prop as a possibility.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think Machado will either win the decision or just beat him late when he Fades so sign me up for bigfoot first time ever I'm back at him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

The Guru picks Brendson Ribeiro over Caio Machado, though he expresses disdain for heavyweights. He notes Ribeiro's close loss to Gadzhi Omargadzhiev and believes regional heavyweights are better athletes. He predicts a TKO win for Ribeiro.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Brenson riro getting a TKO win over Machado"
LOSS vs Don'Tale Mayes
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Don'Tale Mayes 1 67 of 183 36% 73 of 190 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Caio Machado 0 76 of 159 47% 77 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Don'Tale Mayes 1 20 of 55 36% 26 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Caio Machado 0 19 of 40 47% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Don'Tale Mayes 0 26 of 61 42% 26 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Machado 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Don'Tale Mayes 0 21 of 67 31% 21 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Machado 0 32 of 66 48% 33 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Don'Tale Mayes 67 of 183 36% 42 of 140 18 of 29 7 of 14 67 of 181 0 of 1 0 of 1
Caio Machado 76 of 159 47% 33 of 103 25 of 33 18 of 23 75 of 158 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Don'Tale Mayes 20 of 55 36% 12 of 39 7 of 12 1 of 4 20 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 1
Caio Machado 19 of 40 47% 6 of 23 6 of 8 7 of 9 19 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Don'Tale Mayes 26 of 61 42% 18 of 50 4 of 6 4 of 5 26 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Machado 25 of 53 47% 13 of 38 7 of 9 5 of 6 25 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Don'Tale Mayes 21 of 67 31% 12 of 51 7 of 11 2 of 5 21 of 66 0 of 1 0 of 0
Caio Machado 32 of 66 48% 14 of 42 12 of 16 6 of 8 31 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Angelo picks the underdog Caio Machado, believing he is the more technical striker with better footwork. He thinks Don'Tale Mayes has one-punch power but will struggle to land big shots, and Mayes' wrestling is not great. He expects Machado to defend takedowns and win a boring, sloppy heavyweight decision. He notes Mayes is a 2-to-1 favorite but favors the dog.

"I am going the dog here in Kyo Machado"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Cody picks Mayes, citing his experience against better competition and his reach advantage. He thinks Mayes' jab and switch-hitting style will be effective, and that Machado's padded record and poor takedown defense will be exposed.

"I'm taking it might be the return of D1 dant"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Daniel argues Machado is underrated, citing his striking ratio (7 strikes landed per minute, 2 absorbed) and 82% takedown defense. He calls Mayes one of the worst heavyweights, with poor fight IQ and a history of losing. He thinks Machado will win by wanting it more and having higher output.

"I'm going Kyle Machado here Dantel May is a bum"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Caio Machado

Machado will dictate the pace and be on the front foot, pressuring Mayes. Mayes has a history of quitting when faced with resistance. Machado's BJJ and pressure style should cause Mayes issues, and I expect Machado to finish him in the second or third round.

"I think we'll see masado get back to his feet if he is taken down and I think we'll see him get back to the pressure style and really put some big punches on Maize and possibly even finish him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Paul picks Machado, believing his volume striking will edge out Mayes. He notes Machado's youth and potential, but admits Mayes' takedown game could be a problem. He calls it a 50/50 fight and slightly favors Machado.

"I'll flip the script and I'll I'll take Mado here wins slightly slightly on volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes as an underdog. He notes that Caio Machado is used to being the taller fighter and keeps his hands down, which could be exploited by Mayes' height and reach. He criticizes Machado's headbutts and believes Mayes' athleticism and one-shot finishing power give him an edge. He also mentions that Machado's win over Mick Parkin was aided by head clashes and that Mayes' KO of Andre Arlovski shows his potential.

"I'm gonna go with Dantel Mays over Machado"
LOSS vs Mick Parkin
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mick Parkin 0 39 of 98 39% 69 of 139 3 of 10 30% 0 1 6:23
Caio Machado 0 76 of 132 57% 103 of 164 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mick Parkin 0 7 of 22 31% 11 of 30 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:45
Caio Machado 0 24 of 43 55% 34 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Mick Parkin 0 9 of 20 45% 35 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 1 3:32
Caio Machado 0 17 of 21 80% 34 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Mick Parkin 0 23 of 56 41% 23 of 56 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:06
Caio Machado 0 35 of 68 51% 35 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mick Parkin 39 of 98 39% 33 of 91 2 of 3 4 of 4 34 of 92 3 of 3 2 of 3
Caio Machado 76 of 132 57% 41 of 95 24 of 26 11 of 11 68 of 121 6 of 9 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mick Parkin 7 of 22 31% 4 of 19 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Machado 24 of 43 55% 8 of 27 10 of 10 6 of 6 21 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Mick Parkin 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 3
Caio Machado 17 of 21 80% 14 of 17 1 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 16 3 of 3 2 of 2
3 Mick Parkin 23 of 56 41% 20 of 52 1 of 2 2 of 2 21 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0
Caio Machado 35 of 68 51% 19 of 51 13 of 14 3 of 3 35 of 66 0 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo has a slight lean towards Mick Parkin because he can wrestle if needed, but he is very hesitant due to the wide odds (-330) and Parkin's unproven status. He notes Machado has more power and volume, and that the odds scare him. He advises passing or taking the underdog.

Odds comment: odds are way too wide, minus 330; suggests going underdog or passing
"the slightest of slight slight leans probably towards Mick because he can wrestle if he needs to but unproven and I can't spend my money on that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Mick Parkin

Big Brady thinks Parkin will stick to the outside and be the better striker across 15 minutes, similar to his fight against Jamal Pogues. He finds the line a bit crazy but believes Parkin is the better fighter and should win a very uneventful heavyweight decision. He's not fully convinced in Parkin yet but expects him to get the job done.

"I do think he should go out there and be able to to beat Kyle Machado here I think he's the better fighter and I think he should win this across three rounds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Cody picks Mick Parkin, noting his better striking and wrestling. He acknowledges the heavy price but believes Parkin is more well-rounded. He mentions Machado's low level of competition and suspect cardio. Cody thinks Parkin can win by decision or TKO.

"I think Parkin's the more well-rounded guy he's got some better skills everywhere"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Mick Parkin

Parkin is a well-rounded heavyweight prospect with good striking output and grappling. He can win on the feet with volume or take the fight to the ground and grind out Machado. Machado has faced low-level competition and has been in trouble before. Parkin wins convincingly by decision, and over 1.5 rounds is a good prop.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think he wins this fight pretty uh convincingly and I think he gets it done by decision over one and a half not too bad of a line either"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Paul picks Parkin but is not enthusiastic due to the price. He notes Machado's weak competition and Parkin's improvement. Paul thinks Parkin is better everywhere but the line is too high for comfort.

"I think Parkin's the more well-rounded guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The MMA Guru picks Mick Parkin to win by TKO in round two. He praises Parkin's boxing and forward pressure, noting his easy win over Jamal Pogues. He criticizes Machado's Contender Series performance against a passive opponent and believes Parkin's crisp boxing and calf kicks will overwhelm Machado. He also mentions Parkin trains with Tom Aspinall.

TKO round two
"I'm going to go Mick Parkin TKO round two I reckon is what's going to happen here."
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Angelo picks Caio Machado as the cleaner fighter with more ways to win. He notes Machado is well-rounded, has volume and footwork, good clinch work, and underrated BJJ. He acknowledges Brendson Ribeiro could come in wild and connect, but outside of that, Machado is the better fighter. He shares a funny anecdote about accidentally messaging Machado instead of another fighter.

"I think Kyle should win he's the cleaner fighter he's more buttoned up he has more ways to win obviously Breon could come in wild and connect but outside of that Kyle's just the better fighter so Kyle's going to be the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Big Brady picks Caio Machado to win by decision. He notes that Ribeiro has poor cardio (about 7.5 minutes of gas) and that Machado, moving down from heavyweight, should have better cardio and volume. Brady thinks Machado can take over as the fight progresses, either by outworking Ribeiro on the feet or by taking him down. He mentions Ribeiro's takedown defense looked awful in his last fight.

"I'm going Machado here I'm going Machado to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Cody picks Caio Machado, noting his improved physique at light heavyweight and his volume striking. He criticizes Ribeiro as a glass cannon with poor cardio and durability, and believes Machado's cardio, volume, and grappling advantage will allow him to outwork Ribeiro. He also mentions Machado's experience and the favorable judging in Canada.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think Machado will either win the decision or just beat him late when he Fades so sign me up for bigfoot first time ever I'm back at him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Daniel Vreeland picks Caio Machado to win his light heavyweight debut, despite acknowledging his poor technique. He notes that Brendson Ribeiro has a questionable chin and heart, getting hurt in every fight and covering up when in trouble. Vreeland believes Machado's toughness and willingness to push through adversity will overcome Ribeiro's technical edge, especially since Ribeiro has shown a tendency to quit.

"I'm gonna go Kyle Machado to come out here and win his uh light heavyweight debut"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Lucrative James picks Brendson Ribeiro, citing his early finishing upside and Machado's questionable durability. He notes Machado is moving down from heavyweight, which may zap his speed advantage, and that Ribeiro has power to finish early. He also mentions Ribeiro's poor fight IQ and cardio but believes he can get the win.

"I'm going to pick Brendan rero in this fight or Brenson rero I should say"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Machado is going down to light heavyweight for the first time after starting 0-2 in the UFC, but this is a winnable fight where he should have the overall advantage and grind Ribeiro out, winning on the scorecards.

"I do think this is a very winnable fight for him where he should be able to have the overall advantage and grind Ribeiro out winning this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Caio Machado

Paul also picks Machado, citing his volume and cardio advantage over Ribeiro, who he sees as a power puncher with questionable durability. He notes that Machado has looked better at light heavyweight and should be able to outwork Ribeiro. He also mentions the over 1.5 rounds prop as a possibility.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think Machado will either win the decision or just beat him late when he Fades so sign me up for bigfoot first time ever I'm back at him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

The Guru picks Brendson Ribeiro over Caio Machado, though he expresses disdain for heavyweights. He notes Ribeiro's close loss to Gadzhi Omargadzhiev and believes regional heavyweights are better athletes. He predicts a TKO win for Ribeiro.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Brenson riro getting a TKO win over Machado"