UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
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Age 27
Height 5' 4"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 5' 5"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Erin Blanchfield
5.24 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
4.25 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
1.96 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
78.0% TD Def.
0.9 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Rose Namajunas
3.5 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
3.38 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
1.47 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
62.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Erin Blanchfield - Fight History
WIN vs Tracy Cortez
Submission R2 4:44 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 52 of 116 44% 65 of 134 2 of 3 66% 1 1 2:43
Tracy Cortez 0 46 of 104 44% 50 of 108 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 43 of 92 46% 43 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tracy Cortez 0 32 of 76 42% 33 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 9 of 24 37% 22 of 42 2 of 3 66% 1 1 2:43
Tracy Cortez 0 14 of 28 50% 17 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 52 of 116 44% 38 of 100 6 of 8 8 of 8 51 of 115 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 46 of 104 44% 35 of 88 7 of 12 4 of 4 45 of 100 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 43 of 92 46% 32 of 80 5 of 6 6 of 6 42 of 91 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 32 of 76 42% 25 of 64 4 of 9 3 of 3 31 of 72 1 of 4 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 9 of 24 37% 6 of 20 1 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 14 of 28 50% 10 of 24 3 of 3 1 of 1 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Angelo picks Erin Blanchfield despite considering Tracy Cortez's wrestling. He values Blanchfield's relentless pressure and scrambling ability. He notes Cortez is often at events and may not be training enough. He suggests over 2.5 rounds and a plus 3.5 bet on Cortez as possibilities.

over 2.5 rounds, plus 3.5 on Cortez
"I'm going to pick Aaron Blanchfield. Tracy could absolutely get the takedowns here and work... Over two and a half is probably solid."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Big Brady leans Erin Blanchfield, believing her grappling advantage will be decisive. He notes Tracy Cortez has only 62% takedown defense and has been taken down multiple times by Rose Namajunas and others. Brady thinks Blanchfield's top control and submission skills are superior once the fight hits the ground, and predicts a decision win. He acknowledges the line is wide and a case can be made for Cortez.

decision
"I'm going to lean Blanchfield to get the done get it done by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Cody picks Blanchfield, noting that she has improved significantly since their first fight six years ago, especially her striking. He points out that Cortez has not evolved and has been inactive. Cody believes Blanchfield's wrestling and pressure will be too much, and she will win by decision. He also mentions that Blanchfield is younger and more motivated.

Blanchfield by decision
"Blanchfield's likely to take her down and give her all types of problems. And if she doesn't take her down, she's going to come forward, she's going to throw punches, she's going to try to outwork her."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Connor also leans toward Cortez, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Cortez is an inch taller than Blanchfield, which is surprising, and that Blanchfield's aggressive style may lead to her giving things away. He thinks Cortez can win out scrambles and that Blanchfield's one-size-fits-all approach may not work.

Odds: Cortez opened +190, currently +200.
"I'm going to go Cortez with you."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel sees Blanchfield as the more evolved fighter since their first fight, with relentless pressure and a never-quit attitude. He notes that Cortez struggles when she is the nail, while Blanchfield has shown she can overcome adversity. He expects Blanchfield to avenge her loss and continue her rise.

"I'm still going to come out here and pick Aaron Blanchfield to win the rematch and avenge the loss against Tracy Cortez."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Lucrative James picks Erin Blanchfield to win, citing her superior grappling and submission skills. He believes Cortez will engage in wrestling, which plays into Blanchfield's strengths, as she is a better MMA grappler and dangerous from top position. He notes Blanchfield's ability to submit opponents from any position, as seen in her previous win over Cortez. He expects Blanchfield to win via submission or dominant decision.

"I'm going to pick Aaron Blanchfield to get the win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Blanchfield lands bigger shots on the feet and eventually lands takedowns for control and BJJ superiority. Cortez may be the better wrestler on paper, but Blanchfield gets her hand raised on the scorecards.

"I expect Blanchfield to get her hand raised as I think she'll be able to land bigger shots on the feet and eventually land those takedowns where she can get some good control and utilize her BJJ superiority."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Blanchfield's striking has improved the most. He notes that Cortez's takedown defense is not great and that Blanchfield will likely control the fight. Paul also mentions that Blanchfield has a home-field advantage and that the fight will likely go to decision. He likes the over 2.5 rounds prop.

over 2.5 rounds
"Blanchfield by decision minus 133 is not horrible."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The Guru picks Erin Blanchfield to win by 29-28 decision. He believes Blanchfield's grappling and physicality will be decisive, though she may lose the first round. He criticizes Cortez's focus on appearance (fake eyelashes) and notes Blanchfield's win over Rose Namajunas as a better benchmark. Blanchfield should mix in takedowns and control later rounds.

"I'm gonna go with Blanchfield getting this one done. I'm going to say that Blanchfield wins this by 2928 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Zane leans toward Cortez, noting that Cortez has a win over Blanchfield and is a very good scrambler and grappler. He thinks Blanchfield's aggressive style might play into Cortez's hands, as Cortez is comfortable in scrambles. However, he admits it's hard to get a grip on Cortez and that she is still developing.

Odds: Cortez opened +190, currently +200. Blanchfield opened -225, currently -235.
"I'm leaning Cortez."
CANCEL vs Maycee Barber
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Angelo picks Erin Blanchfield, expecting her to move forward, absorb strikes, and get the fight to the ground where she can dominate. He notes that Maycee Barber's takedown defense is midlevel (53%) and that Blanchfield is tough and relentless. He predicts a decision win for Blanchfield, though she may have close calls.

Expects a decision win.
"Aaron Blanchfield is going to be the pick. The round line is going to be interesting here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Big Brady picks Erin Blanchfield, citing her superior grappling and Barber's poor takedown defense (50%). He notes that Barber has been taken down by lesser fighters like Roxanne Modafferi and Andrea Lee. He believes Blanchfield will have no trouble taking Barber down and controlling her on the ground, leading to a decision win.

by decision
"I'll go Blanchfield. I think Blanchfield probably wins by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Connor picks Barber based on a gut feeling that Barber is the kind of fighter who does not wilt under pressure, unlike the opponents Blanchfield has thrived against. He argues that Blanchfield's entire style relies on breaking opponents' spirits, but Barber's confidence and aggression make her unlikely to fade. Connor also notes that Barber's improved striking and ability to adjust could allow her to win exchanges on the feet, and that Blanchfield's grappling opportunities may be limited if Barber can get back to her feet.

"I just have a gut feeling that Barbara is one of those fighters who does not play along. In the way that Blanchfield's very broad strokes kind of style benefits from Blanchfield wants you to wither. It's the whole basis …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Matt picks Erin Blanchfield to win by decision. He notes that Blanchfield's wrestling and top pressure will be the difference, as Barber lacks the footwork and movement of Manon Fiorot to keep Blanchfield at bay. Blanchfield should get takedowns and grind out a decision, though submission props are also intriguing.

Blanchfield by decision +100, Blanchfield by submission +450, Barber by KO +550, round 3 sub +2400, round 4 sub +3000, round 5 sub +3600
"I am leaning the Blanchfield way."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The MMA Guru picks Erin Blanchfield by decision, citing her pressure and takedowns. He notes Andrea Lee took Barber down five times, and Blanchfield is better. He believes the Apex benefits Blanchfield and that Barber's movement won't be as effective. He predicts a competitive five-rounder with Blanchfield winning via grappling.

PrizePicks: Maycee Barber over 78.5 significant strikes; decision win
"I'm gonna go with Aaron Blanchfield... I think this is going to be a five rounder... Erin Blanchfield gets this one done against Macy Barber by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Zane picks Blanchfield because he believes Barber's clinch-heavy style will give Blanchfield too many opportunities to take the fight to the ground, where Blanchfield's exceptional top control is a major advantage. He notes that Barber has improved her striking and adjustments, but her tendency to explode into the clinch plays into Blanchfield's strengths. Zane also points out that Blanchfield's pressure and volume could overwhelm Barber, though he acknowledges Barber's durability and confidence.

"I have to take Blanchfield here. I just think that if Barbara, if the core function of Barbara has become a better rain tracker, but if the core functionality of her game remains her ability to bully people in the …"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 110 of 281 39% 193 of 387 2 of 8 25% 0 0 8:54
Rose Namajunas 0 94 of 245 38% 101 of 254 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 19 of 68 27% 19 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 30 of 61 49% 30 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 25 of 67 37% 28 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Rose Namajunas 0 23 of 65 35% 26 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
3 Erin Blanchfield 0 11 of 28 39% 48 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:38
Rose Namajunas 0 9 of 21 42% 10 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Erin Blanchfield 0 40 of 93 43% 43 of 97 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
Rose Namajunas 0 25 of 79 31% 25 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
5 Erin Blanchfield 0 15 of 25 60% 55 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:08
Rose Namajunas 0 7 of 19 36% 10 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 110 of 281 39% 81 of 248 15 of 16 14 of 17 103 of 269 2 of 6 5 of 6
Rose Namajunas 94 of 245 38% 68 of 212 18 of 24 8 of 9 91 of 241 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 19 of 68 27% 11 of 58 3 of 4 5 of 6 19 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 30 of 61 49% 22 of 52 2 of 3 6 of 6 30 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 25 of 67 37% 21 of 61 2 of 2 2 of 4 25 of 65 0 of 2 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 23 of 65 35% 17 of 58 5 of 5 1 of 2 22 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Erin Blanchfield 11 of 28 39% 7 of 24 2 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 24 0 of 2 1 of 2
Rose Namajunas 9 of 21 42% 7 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Erin Blanchfield 40 of 93 43% 29 of 82 6 of 6 5 of 5 40 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 25 of 79 31% 16 of 67 8 of 11 1 of 1 25 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Erin Blanchfield 15 of 25 60% 13 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 19 2 of 2 4 of 4
Rose Namajunas 7 of 19 36% 6 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas confidently, calling her an all-time great and a better striker than Erin Blanchfield. He notes Blanchfield's inability to get takedowns was exposed against Manon Fiorot, and without that, she is stuck in a striking match with a superior striker. He thinks five rounds help Rose, as she can afford to lose a round if taken down. He placed a half unit bet on Rose at plus 100 (even money).

half unit on Rose Namajunas at +100
"Rose should absolutely win this fight five rounds only helps Rose because if she does get taken down in a round and gives one up she's got four more to cover the distance she's not only the pick but she …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision. He questions Erin Blanchfield's wrestling, noting her low takedown accuracy (33%) and failure to take down opponents like Fiorot and Santos. He believes on the feet, Rose is clearly superior, and even if taken down, Rose's scrambling is good. Brady likes the plus money and thinks the big cage favors Rose.

plus money
"at plus money I'm going to I'm going to take the dog here and and Rose nunas I think it's going to be a very close fight... I'll take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody picks Rose Namajunas as an underdog, arguing that Blanchfield's takedown struggles against Manon Fiorot (0 for 3) and Taila Santos (0 for 14) show she can't reliably take down elite grapplers. He believes Rose's striking, footwork, and takedown defense will keep the fight standing, where she has the advantage. He also notes Rose's experience in five-round fights and her ability to mix in takedowns herself.

"I do kind of feel like maybe the plus money on Rose Nom units is a little more warranted so I'm going to go with that and I'm going to take RADS."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel Vreeland picks Erin Blanchfield to win, arguing that the line is influenced by recency bias from Blanchfield's loss to Manon Fiorot. He points out that Rose Namajunas has poor takedown defense (under 60%) compared to Fiorot's 93%, and that Blanchfield's grappling is a different level—she can take the back and submit opponents. Vreeland expects Blanchfield to pressure Namajunas, get takedowns, and potentially finish via ground-and-pound or submission.

"I'm going Aaron blanchfield to get back on track regain her hype"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Lucrative James picks Erin Blanchfield to win inside the distance, emphasizing her grappling advantage. He notes Rose has been taken down in recent fights and that Blanchfield's wrestling will be decisive. He believes Rose has lost some athleticism and that Blanchfield can finish via submission, likely a rear-naked choke.

wins inside the distance
"I'm taking Aaron blanchfield in this one and I actually think she gets it done inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Namajunas has shown tremendous defensive grappling improvements, and that will get her a victory over Blanchfield. She will win at least three of the five rounds by out-pointing and out-damaging Blanchfield, winning on the scorecards and positioning herself for a title shot.

"Namajunas has shown tremendous defensive grappling improvements and I believe that will get her a victory here over Blanchfield look for Namajunas to win at least three of the five rounds here by out pointing and out damaging Blanchfield and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul sides with Rose but is less confident, expecting a close split decision. He notes that Blanchfield's path to victory is through takedowns, but Rose has shown improved takedown defense and can win on the feet. He mentions the common opponent Jessica Andrade, where Rose won by decision and Blanchfield by submission, but sees the fight as competitive. He plans to bet the split decision prop rather than the moneyline.

split decision prop
"I expect the fight to be incredibly close on the feet on the mat and I'm going to side with rose but I don't plan on betting this but yeah I'll be looking for the split decision prop."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The Guru picks Rose Namajunas over Erin Blanchfield, calling Blanchfield overrated. He praises Namajunas's technical skills, scrambles, and wrestling reactions. He notes Blanchfield's poor performance against Manon Fiorot and believes Namajunas will win as an underdog.

"I'm going to go Rose wellt Tred fighter I don't think she's like man on fioro level but she took it to man on fioro and she broke her hand in that fight"
LOSS vs Manon Fiorot
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Mar 30, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manon Fiorot 0 130 of 386 33% 135 of 394 0 of 3 0% 1 0 0:48
Erin Blanchfield 0 172 of 359 47% 181 of 369 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manon Fiorot 0 21 of 58 36% 22 of 60 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:27
Erin Blanchfield 0 28 of 57 49% 30 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
2 Manon Fiorot 0 21 of 77 27% 22 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Erin Blanchfield 0 27 of 61 44% 27 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Manon Fiorot 0 24 of 68 35% 24 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Erin Blanchfield 0 29 of 70 41% 29 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
4 Manon Fiorot 0 37 of 98 37% 38 of 99 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Erin Blanchfield 0 46 of 85 54% 47 of 86 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
5 Manon Fiorot 0 27 of 85 31% 29 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Erin Blanchfield 0 42 of 86 48% 48 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manon Fiorot 130 of 386 33% 80 of 318 25 of 40 25 of 28 124 of 371 6 of 15 0 of 0
Erin Blanchfield 172 of 359 47% 143 of 321 18 of 25 11 of 13 167 of 346 5 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manon Fiorot 21 of 58 36% 14 of 48 3 of 6 4 of 4 21 of 55 0 of 3 0 of 0
Erin Blanchfield 28 of 57 49% 25 of 52 2 of 2 1 of 3 25 of 53 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Manon Fiorot 21 of 77 27% 11 of 64 6 of 8 4 of 5 19 of 70 2 of 7 0 of 0
Erin Blanchfield 27 of 61 44% 18 of 50 6 of 8 3 of 3 26 of 57 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Manon Fiorot 24 of 68 35% 15 of 52 6 of 11 3 of 5 21 of 65 3 of 3 0 of 0
Erin Blanchfield 29 of 70 41% 24 of 64 3 of 4 2 of 2 29 of 68 0 of 2 0 of 0
4 Manon Fiorot 37 of 98 37% 22 of 81 8 of 10 7 of 7 37 of 97 0 of 1 0 of 0
Erin Blanchfield 46 of 85 54% 40 of 78 3 of 4 3 of 3 46 of 83 0 of 2 0 of 0
5 Manon Fiorot 27 of 85 31% 18 of 73 2 of 5 7 of 7 26 of 84 1 of 1 0 of 0
Erin Blanchfield 42 of 86 48% 36 of 77 4 of 7 2 of 2 41 of 85 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blanchfield (-192), Fiorot (+160)

Round 1
A possible shot at the flyweight title is on the line here as Blanchfield and Fiorot bring their dueling six-fight Octagon winning streaks into the “UFC Atlantic City” main event. Drawing the final referee assignment of the evening is Vitor “Shaolin” Ribeiro. Fiorot is southpaw, Blanchfield orthodox. Fiorot sticks out the jab early. Blanchfield throws a body kick, but takes a lefty counter upstairs. Fiorot changes levels, hoists Blanchfield into the air and slams her to the canvas. Blanchfield grabs a guillotine and it’s tight. Fiorot tries to get out of Blanchfield’s guard and to safety, and Blanchfield gets to her feet, still holding the choke. They fight out the position against the cage, Fiorot fighting the hands as Blanchfield tries to tighten the choke. Blanchfield finally gives up on the submission and they split and reset in the middle of the cage. Fiorot works with the jab again, keeping the shorter woman on the outside. Blanchfield throws a high kick that glances off the chest and arms of Fiorot. Blanchfield backs Fiorot up to the fence with a string of punches, then grabs a body lock and tries to take her down. She can’t get the takedown, and eats a sharp right hand on the break. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 2
Blanchfield bounces into range, trying to get past Fiorot’s jab, but Fiorot is wise to it. Blanchfield throws a body kick that glances off the arms. Blanchfield steps in and uses a body lock and trip to take Fiorot down. She succeeds, but Fiorot uses muscle and balance to sweep her and land on top, then stands and makes Blanchfield follow. Fiorot lands a karate-style side kick to the lead leg of Blanchfield, stopping her forward progress. Blanchfield steps in and grabs another body lock, and again Fiorot just kind of muscles her away. Fiorot steps inside a punch to clinch, then throws a knee as they separate. Blanchfield is relentless in her forward movement, but Fiorot is doing a brilliant job so far of using jabs and low kicks to keep her outside, or collapsing the distance and clinching when she gets in. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 3
Blanchfield swings her way into the pocket and lands a couple of punches. Fiorot makes some space between them and meets Blanchfield’s next entry with a downward low kick. Blanchfield shoves into the clinch, and Fiorot simply tosses her by, throwing her toward the fence. Blanchfield draws a jab out of Fiorot and counters with a nice straight. Blanchfield is finding some success landing her right hand over Fiorot’s left. Blanchfield charges in, and once again Fiorot just kind of flings her on her way. Blanchfield spins down to one knee before turning to re-engage. Blanchfield is bleeding from a small cut outside her left eye, though the blood is thankfully not running into the eye. Blanchfield clinches, and while Fiorot shucks her off, Blanchfield connects with a nice short right on the way out. Under a minute to go, and the Atlantic City crowd is audibly restive. Fiorot meets a Blanchfield charge with a hard knee up the middle. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 4
The main event rounds open with Blanchfield again coming forward aggressively, swinging hooks with both hands. Again, Fiorot meets her calmly with the jab and leg kick. Blanchfield, perhaps knowing that she needs to do something big, throws caution to the wind, charging into the pocket and swinging away. Fiorot gives ground, her composure momentarily shaken, and Blanchfield lands a couple of solid punches. They clinch and Fiorot grabs a body lock, considers hoisting Blanchfield for another slam, but can’t complete it and they separate. Two minutes to go in the round and Blanchfield is still the aggressor, but Fiorot is back to managing the distance and keeping the shorter woman on the outside. With under 30 seconds to go, Fiorot catches Blanchfield coming in with a kick to the body, stopping her in her tracks. The 10-second clapper sounds, and neither woman lands anything of substance before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 5
Blanchfield’s corner sends her back out with the instruction, “You need a f***in’ finish,” mirroring our scorecards here at Sherdog. Blanchfield comes out throwing with abandon, and lands a head kick that staggers the Frenchwoman. Fiorot recovers quickly, but damage was done. Fiorot enters the pocket and Fiorot shoves her with both hands, dropping her to her seat. Blanchfield is trying to walk Fiorot down, perhaps corral her against the fence, but Fiorot is wise to it and continues to dominate the distance battle. Fiorot’s lead left hook is finding the American’s head on the entry or exit from almost every exchange. Blanchfield marches forward, but Fiorot meets her with a one-two that snaps her head back. Blanchfield pushes through, clinches and shoves Fiorot into the cage with under a minute left. They disengage and Fiorot, far from sitting on her lead, throws a flying knee at the oncoming Blanchfield. Blanchfield misses with a high kick and Fiorot throws a spinning attack that ends in a collision. The final horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (50-45 Fiorot)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (50-45 Fiorot)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (50-45 Fiorot)

The Official Result
Manon Fiorot def. Erin Blanchfield via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Angelo picks Manon Fiorot but is not very confident. He cites Fiorot's striking power and 91% takedown defense, contrasting with Blanchfield's poor takedown attempts in her last fight. He worries that Blanchfield's toughness and forward pressure could trouble Fiorot. He notes underdogs have won 66% of main events in 2024.

"I am going to pick man in here I'm not very confident Aaron is not soft she is tough as hell"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 25, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Big Brady picks Manon Fiorot to win by decision, taking the underdog. He sees it as a close fight that likely goes the distance. He favors Fiorot in the striking early, but worries about Blanchfield's pressure and grappling later. He notes Blanchfield's takedown accuracy is low and Fiorot's takedown defense is elite. Brady expects a split decision where Fiorot does better work early.

"I'm going to take the dog here in fioro I'll take her to win a very very tight decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Cody sees Fiorot as a live underdog due to her takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes Blanchfield's recent struggles with takedowns (0 for 14 against Santos) and believes Fiorot can keep the fight standing and outpoint her. However, he admits it's more of a price play and not a high-confidence pick.

"I am going to go with furo for the record we will break down the fight but seems like the value play would be on her side"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Daniel Vreeland picks Manon Fiorot at plus money, stating he bet her at +170. He believes Fiorot is very disciplined, won't get carried away, and can frustrate Blanchfield by staying on the feet and using her movement. He notes that Fiorot has survived takedowns before (e.g., against Jennifer Maia) and that Blanchfield's wrestling isn't elite. He acknowledges Blanchfield's submission threat but thinks Fiorot can avoid being finished and win a decision.

"I did take that plus 170 on my known field row and to me it's just about playing it smart here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2023 (410 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

James sees this as a 50/50 fight due to the unknowns of whether Blanchfield can get takedowns against Andrade. He notes Blanchfield's grappling is elite but her striking defense is poor, while Andrade has one-punch power and strong clinch work. He leans Blanchfield because of her youth and potential to get takedowns in later rounds, but is not confident. He mentions Blanchfield at +150 offers value.

"I do lean on the side that Aaron Blanchfield is actually going to shock some people here and that she will get some takedowns."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Fiorot's takedown defense and movement are key; she has only been controlled for 1:40 in 77 minutes of UFC cage time. Blanchfield's takedown success has plummeted (2 of 22 in last 4 fights), and she gets hit often. Fiorot's lateral movement and ability to pivot off Blanchfield's entries should allow her to land straight shots and avoid prolonged grappling. The fight resembles Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman where the wrestler fails on takedowns and eats damage. Fiorot by decision is the most likely outcome, though the last two rounds could be close.

Fiorot by decision; half unit at +160; may add more if line improves
"I got to go with Foo here odds wise I think plus 160 is a damn good number to take a shot on"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Paul agrees with Cody that Fiorot is a live underdog, citing Blanchfield's takedown struggles and Fiorot's technical striking. He mentions the close fight with Rose Namajunas as a reference but admits he doesn't feel great about it, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"I generally tend to agree with you here I mean but looking back on doing I guess a little bit of MMA math it's like looking how Rose did against heus this past weekend"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The host picks Erin Blanchfield to win by decision. He believes Blanchfield's takedown attempts and aggression will be key, especially in a five-round fight. He notes that Fiorot may struggle to stuff takedowns over five rounds and that Blanchfield is willing to shoot repeatedly. He also sees opportunities for Blanchfield to take Fiorot's back when Fiorot turns after combinations. He predicts a 49-46 decision, with Blanchfield losing one round.

decision win, 49-46
"I'm going to go with Aon blanchfield I think she'll be able to push and also I watched back her fight with Jessica and dra it wasn't what I remember... I'm actually going to pick blanchfield by decision 4946"
WIN vs Taila Santos
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 61 of 128 47% 119 of 210 0 of 14 0% 0 0 8:08
Taila Santos 0 55 of 151 36% 96 of 202 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 26 of 55 47% 36 of 69 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:22
Taila Santos 0 25 of 71 35% 31 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 9 of 18 50% 34 of 58 0 of 4 0% 0 0 4:01
Taila Santos 0 11 of 24 45% 32 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
3 Erin Blanchfield 0 26 of 55 47% 49 of 83 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:45
Taila Santos 0 19 of 56 33% 33 of 74 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 61 of 128 47% 37 of 99 18 of 23 6 of 6 43 of 102 17 of 24 1 of 2
Taila Santos 55 of 151 36% 28 of 118 9 of 15 18 of 18 46 of 133 9 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 26 of 55 47% 16 of 45 7 of 7 3 of 3 20 of 49 6 of 6 0 of 0
Taila Santos 25 of 71 35% 13 of 56 5 of 8 7 of 7 21 of 63 4 of 8 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 9 of 18 50% 3 of 9 4 of 7 2 of 2 5 of 9 3 of 7 1 of 2
Taila Santos 11 of 24 45% 5 of 16 2 of 4 4 of 4 8 of 19 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Erin Blanchfield 26 of 55 47% 18 of 45 7 of 9 1 of 1 18 of 44 8 of 11 0 of 0
Taila Santos 19 of 56 33% 10 of 46 2 of 3 7 of 7 17 of 51 2 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Angelo acknowledges Blanchfield's grappling and improved striking, but leans toward Santos because of her power, technical striking, and BJJ. He questions whether Blanchfield can get takedowns against Santos, and if she can't, Santos will light her up. He notes that Blanchfield is a surprising 2-to-1 favorite and thinks the fight should be closer to even money.

"I just have a tiny slight lean for Tyler she's I'm gonna pick her this should be almost even money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Big Brady is torn on this fight, acknowledging both fighters are championship caliber. He favors Blanchfield due to her youth, activity, and improvements, especially in striking. He questions Santos's mental toughness, citing her excuses after the Valentina fight and pulling out of this fight earlier. He expects a close fight and picks Blanchfield by decision, but with low confidence.

decision
"blanchfield blanchfield by decision but not a ton of confidence"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Cody picks Blanchfield due to her youth, improving skills, and superior cardio. He believes her wrestling and pressure will wear down Santos, who he sees as a step down from the elite. Cody expects a close decision or late submission.

"the pick for me is Blanche Shield because I'm Blanche Shield believer"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel picks Erin Blanchfield, praising her mean streak and relentless pressure. He notes that Santos is more physical and a better striker, but Blanchfield's grappling and cardio will take over in later rounds. He mentions that Blanchfield is a lifelong black belt and has a strong chin. He is confident she wins, though he thinks the price is accurate and not a value bet.

"I think Aaron blanchfield wins here um I'm close to betting her but I haven't yet because I do think I kind of agree with you the slime"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Erin Blanchfield

James picks Erin Blanchfield, citing her continuous improvement, will to win, and superior grappling chain. He believes she can get takedowns on Santos and dominate on the mat, potentially submitting her. He acknowledges Santos' size and power but thinks Blanchfield's pace and cardio will be decisive. He also notes Santos' inactivity and the emotional letdown from the title loss.

bet on Erin Blanchfield moneyline; also considered Blanchfield submission at 22-1 but did not bet
"I lean air in blanchfield a decent amount"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The host acknowledges Taila Santos' strength and performance against Valentina Shevchenko, but believes Blanchfield's technical grappling and top control will be the difference. He notes Blanchfield's dominant win over Jessica Andrade and her ability to pass guard and maintain top position. The host expects a grueling fight but picks Blanchfield by decision.

"I'm going to go blanchfield and blanchfield by decision but it's going to be a grueling grueling fight for bro both women."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Paul sides with Blanchfield, noting her grappling advantage and potential to get takedowns. He acknowledges Santos' close fight with Shevchenko but thinks Blanchfield's youth and improvement give her the edge. Paul is not fully confident but leans Blanchfield.

"I'm going to side with Blanche Fields uh on that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The MMA Guru picks Erin Blanchfield over Taila Santos, citing Blanchfield's youth (6-year age difference) and likely improvement. He believes Blanchfield has better grappling, scrambles, and crisper stand-up, though Santos may have a power advantage. He notes Santos' close fight with Valentina Shevchenko but thinks Blanchfield's activity and conditioning will win. He predicts a competitive 29-28 decision.

Unanimous decision predicted
"I'm gonna go Erin blanchfield I think her grappling game's a bit better I think her striking's a bit more active she's a bit busier her conditioning is a bit better"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:37 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 53 of 143 37% 56 of 147 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 51 of 120 42% 53 of 124 1 of 3 33% 1 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 40 of 106 37% 43 of 110 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 44 of 100 44% 46 of 104 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 13 of 37 35% 13 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 7 of 20 35% 7 of 20 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 53 of 143 37% 28 of 107 5 of 16 20 of 20 50 of 137 3 of 6 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 51 of 120 42% 38 of 105 2 of 4 11 of 11 50 of 117 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 40 of 106 37% 22 of 80 4 of 12 14 of 14 37 of 100 3 of 6 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 44 of 100 44% 32 of 86 2 of 4 10 of 10 43 of 97 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 13 of 37 35% 6 of 27 1 of 4 6 of 6 13 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 7 of 20 35% 6 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Angelo is very confident in Andrade, even on short notice. He highlights Andrade's technical improvement in her last fight against Lauren Murphy, where she showed precision rather than just bullying. He believes Andrade's BJJ black belt and experience against top competition will neutralize Blanchfield's grappling. Angelo notes the line moved from -190 to -170 and he placed a two-unit bet at -150. He dismisses comparisons to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting Shevchenko uses judo while Blanchfield uses wrestling, which Andrade can defend.

Two-unit moneyline bet at -150. Also mentions Andrade by decision at -120 but prefers moneyline.
"I think Jessica andrage absolutely gets this done I'm confident in Jessica andrage to get this done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Big Brady thinks this is too soon for Blanchfield, who has only beaten lower-level competition like Molly McCann. He notes that Andrade only gets dominated by elite grapplers like Valentina Shevchenko, and Blanchfield is not on that level yet. He worries about Blanchfield's takedown success, as she was 0-for-4 against JJ Aldrich. He predicts Andrade will win by knockout, likely in the second round, as Blanchfield has nothing for her on the feet.

Andrade by KO/TKO, round 2
"I'm gonna take Jessica andrage by my knockout... I think she gets it done the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Cody initially liked Blanchfield at plus money due to Andrade taking the fight on short notice and Blanchfield's suffocating style, but as the line tightened he shifted to Andrade. He notes Andrade is a proven commodity with better striking and five-round experience, and that she wouldn't take a fight she couldn't win. However, he acknowledges Blanchfield's grappling threat and says he wants to watch weigh-ins before betting.

Line movement noted: Blanchfield opened plus money, now +120 to +125. Cody considered early plus money on Blanchfield but missed it.
"I think you take a back class and you take Jessica and Josh prove a commodity much better Striker has fought these high level five rounds before... current line I take it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Andrade is a huge step up for Blanchfield. He notes that Blanchfield's striking is very undeveloped, especially her kicks, and that Andrade's power will be a shock. He also points out that Blanchfield struggled with Aldrich's counter striking and maneuvering, and Andrade is a much more physical and powerful version of that. Connor sees the fight as too much too soon for Blanchfield.

"I'm gonna go ahead and assume that I can't expect an X factor due to the short notice... Blanchfield is a good finisher... but it's just not complete enough for me to pick her here."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Jacob is a self-proclaimed Blanchfield hater and picks Andrade confidently. He criticizes Blanchfield's lack of a plan B when things go wrong, citing her fight against JJ Aldrich where she was dominated until a Hail Mary guillotine. Jacob believes Andrade is a better striker and will stuff takedowns, leading to Blanchfield being embarrassed. He compares it to Whittaker vs Vettori and Emmett vs Rodriguez, where one-dimensional wrestlers were exposed. He is not worried about short notice because Andrade wouldn't take the fight if she wasn't ready.

"Jessica Andre is a better Striker she Stuffs the takedowns and Aaron blanchfield is absolutely in embarrassed in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Andrade's relentless pressure, power, and strength will be too much for Blanchfield, who struggled with takedowns against JJ Aldrich and may not be ready for this step up. Andrade's durability and takedown defense should keep her safe, and she will eventually land a knockout, likely in the third or fourth round.

Andrade wins by KO in round 3 or 4
"I felt pretty damn confident on the Jessica Andrade side... we'll see Andrade knock her out."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Paul likes Andrade, citing her recent performance against Lauren Murphy where she looked great and nearly finished her. He questions the comparison to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting that outside of Shevchenko, no one has easily taken Andrade down. He struggles to get behind Blanchfield at the current price, calling it a big step up in competition. He says if the line keeps moving toward Blanchfield, he'll be forced to jump on Andrade.

Line movement: Blanchfield opened -175/-180, now -135. Paul says he'll likely add Andrade to his card after weigh-ins.
"I really struggled to get to Aaron blancheville particularly at this price... this line keeps moving I'm gonna be forced to jump in on Jessica on John."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade, stating she hits different and is a step above other flyweights except Shevchenko. He believes Andrade's power will break Blanchfield's nose early, forcing panic takedowns. He recalls Blanchfield's fight with JJ Aldridge where she struggled before getting a guillotine, and thinks Andrade will be too much. He notes Andrade is a 2-to-1 favorite and calls those odds good, predicting a first-round TKO.

TKO first round, odds: -200 (2-to-1 favorite)
"I think andraj is like going to shatter that beak of a nose on blanchfield's face"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Zane picks Andrade because Blanchfield's striking is still raw and relies on pressure and volume, but she struggles against skilled or physically imposing opponents. Andrade is both, with power that Blanchfield has never faced. Blanchfield's takedown entries are not clean enough to consistently get Andrade down, and Andrade's speed and power will be overwhelming. Zane notes that Blanchfield is a good prospect but not complete enough to win this fight.

Andrade opened at -190, jumped to -155, currently -142; Blanchfield opened +165, dropped to +127, currently +117. Zane notes the odds are getting shorter for Blanchfield, which he finds surprising.
"I gotta pick Androge. Yeah, you know, there's the outside edge of an upset potential... Blanchfield is a good finisher... but it's just not complete enough for me to pick her here."
WIN vs Molly McCann
Submission (kimura) R1 3:37 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 25 of 38 65% 93 of 115 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:48
Molly McCann 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 25 of 38 65% 93 of 115 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:48
Molly McCann 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 25 of 38 65% 22 of 34 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 19 0 of 0 18 of 19
Molly McCann 7 of 13 53% 2 of 7 3 of 3 2 of 3 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 25 of 38 65% 22 of 34 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 19 0 of 0 18 of 19
Molly McCann 7 of 13 53% 2 of 7 3 of 3 2 of 3 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Angelo thinks Blanchfield is the more talented fighter with a higher ceiling, but he is concerned about her struggles in her last fight against JJ Aldrich. He notes that McCann is gritty, experienced, and could break a young prospect. He picks Blanchfield to win via takedowns and control, but does not expect a submission. He suggests the bet might be on McCann inside the distance (decision no action) because McCann could avoid takedowns and win by stoppage, while a decision loss would refund the bet.

Molly McCann inside the distance (decision no action) on BetOnline
"I am not putting Aaron blanchfield in a parlay and the BET might actually be Molly McCann inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Big Brady picks Erin Blanchfield to win by submission, calling it a terrible matchup for Molly McCann. He notes McCann's 46% takedown defense and how she was ragdolled by Laura Procopio. He compares Blanchfield's dominance over Miranda Maverick (7 takedowns) to that fight. He believes Blanchfield will take McCann down repeatedly and likely finish her, as McCann has been submitted before (by Gillian Robertson). He questions why McCann took the fight.

Blanchfield by submission; inside the distance
"it's blanchfield all day and honestly it's maybe even blanchfield inside the distance"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Cody leans towards McCann strictly because of the plus money. He notes that Blanchfield struggled to get takedowns against JJ Aldrich and was taken down herself, which raises questions. He thinks if Blanchfield can't get the fight to the mat, McCann's striking could make it competitive. However, he acknowledges McCann's takedown defense is poor and Blanchfield is a strong wrestler, so he is not confident.

"I'm leaning towards uh McCann strictly because of the number."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Connor picks Blanchfield, citing McCann's inability to solve problems in fights and her tendency to get taken down easily. He notes that McCann's recent wins were against limited opponents, and that Blanchfield is a good opportunist who can take advantage of McCann's overaggression. Connor also mentions that McCann's best work is on the back foot, but she often presses forward and walks into danger.

"I'm going to pick Blanchfield. No, I think you have to pick Blanchfield honestly..."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel Levi picks Erin Blanchfield, citing her grappling advantage and ability to take McCann down and control her. He notes that McCann struggles to get back up when taken down, and Blanchfield is a black belt. However, he is not interested in betting at -390 because he wants guarantees and worries that Blanchfield might stand and trade, giving McCann a chance. He respects McCann's heart and spirit but believes Blanchfield's path to victory is through grappling.

No bet at -390; odds mentioned: Blanchfield -390, McCann +320 at DraftKings
"Aaron's my pick it's just not really in any kind of Rush delay minus 400 on it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The host believes Blanchfield's superior grappling and trips will eventually get the fight to the ground, where she can submit McCann. He notes McCann's improved striking and confidence could make it competitive on the feet, but Blanchfield's grappling is the difference. He likes the under 2.5 rounds at +180 for finishing potential. He is not betting the moneyline at -390.

under 2.5 rounds (+180), Blanchfield by submission
"I'm gonna take her to win by submission I'll be keeping my eye on that submission prop"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Paul picks Blanchfield by decision, highlighting her relentless pressure and grappling. He notes that McCann has poor takedown defense (47%) and has been taken down 12 times in her two losses. Paul believes Blanchfield will take McCann down and control her on the mat, and that McCann's only chance is a spinning elbow knockout. He thinks Blanchfield's wrestling and top control will secure a decision win.

"I got Blanche field but I'm gonna try to chase the price and go by blanchfield by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The MMA Guru picks Erin Blanchfield, highlighting her dominant grappling win over Miranda Maverick, who has since ragdolled others. He notes McCann's history of being outgrappled and believes the threat of takedowns will diminish McCann's striking. He predicts a 29-28 decision, with McCann possibly doing decent in the third round but lacking power to finish.

"I'm going with Aaron blanchfield"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Zane picks Blanchfield, noting that McCann's grappling deficiencies were exposed against Laura Procopio, who took her down easily. He points out that Blanchfield is a decent clinch wrestler and opportunist, and that McCann's tendency to overextend and get countered makes her vulnerable. Zane also mentions that Blanchfield's fight with JJ Aldrich showed she can take shots and keep pressing for takedowns.

"I think you have to pick Blanchfield honestly..."
WIN vs JJ Aldrich
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:38 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 48 of 100 48% 68 of 121 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:56
JJ Aldrich 0 32 of 71 45% 38 of 77 2 of 6 33% 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 23 of 58 39% 27 of 62 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:43
JJ Aldrich 0 16 of 43 37% 21 of 48 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:16
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 25 of 42 59% 41 of 59 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:13
JJ Aldrich 0 16 of 28 57% 17 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 48 of 100 48% 29 of 76 11 of 11 8 of 13 46 of 96 2 of 4 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 32 of 71 45% 29 of 66 3 of 5 0 of 0 31 of 68 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 23 of 58 39% 13 of 44 7 of 7 3 of 7 22 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 16 of 43 37% 15 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 25 of 42 59% 16 of 32 4 of 4 5 of 6 24 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 16 of 28 57% 14 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Angelo sees Erin Blanchfield as a nasty grappler with dominant wrestling, and believes her path to victory is through grappling. He notes that JJ Aldrich is a decision machine with decent striking but a negative striking differential, and that the experience gap is not wide enough to matter. He expects Blanchfield to dominate with heavy grappling and may place a moneyline bet depending on the line movement.

may throw a moneyline bet on Blanchfield, waiting to see line movement
"I think it's more of the same from aaron here i think she dominates in a heavy grappling win and betting wise i may throw a money line bet on aaron"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Big Brady picks Erin Blanchfield to win by decision. He notes that Blanchfield is a huge favorite at -600 but thinks the line is too high, though he still sees her as one of the safer picks on the card. He expects Blanchfield to take Aldrich down repeatedly and control the fight on the mat, grinding out a dominant decision. He acknowledges Aldrich has good takedown defense but believes Blanchfield's relentless wrestling will be too much.

Blanchfield by decision
"I like blanchfield here do I like the minor 600 no I don't but I do think she is one of the safer picks as far as uh picking a win on this card see me blanchfield give me blanchfield …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Cody picks Blanchfield, calling her a real prospect. He notes her wrestling and pressure, and thinks Aldrich's takedown defense has not been tested by a wrestler of Blanchfield's caliber. He expects Blanchfield to win by decision.

Blanchfield by decision
"i'm a bland shield supporter through and through"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel Levi picks Erin Blanchfield, praising her jiu-jitsu, wrestling, and youth. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich's experience but believes Blanchfield's skills will prevail. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation due to the steep price, but picks Blanchfield to win, likely by decision.

"i think that aaron blanchfield's got the skills to pay the bills so i'm gonna go with aaron"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Paul picks Blanchfield and has already bet Blanchfield by decision at -138. He notes Blanchfield's relentless grappling and pressure, and Aldrich's durability. He thinks Blanchfield will secure takedowns and grind out a decision.

Blanchfield by decision (minus 138)
"the bet that i did make this week was blanchfield by decision minus 138."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The MMA Guru picks Erin Blanchfield despite acknowledging JJ Aldrich as a decent underdog. He worries Aldrich might stuff takedowns but notes that Miranda Maverick, who he considers equal or better than Aldrich, couldn't stop Blanchfield's grappling. He expects Blanchfield to dominate on the ground and win by unanimous decision 30-27. However, he strongly dislikes the odds, calling them 'really annoying' and implying they are too wide for his comfort.

Dislikes the odds, says 'the odds are really annoying'
"i am going to go there in blanchfield but i don't like the odds the odds are really annoying on a lot of fights on these cards"
Rose Namajunas - Fight History
LOSS vs Natália Silva
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natália Silva 0 51 of 133 38% 63 of 147 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
Rose Namajunas 0 26 of 94 27% 46 of 119 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natália Silva 0 15 of 44 34% 15 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 13 of 39 33% 13 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Natália Silva 0 8 of 27 29% 15 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 18 27% 25 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:09
3 Natália Silva 0 28 of 62 45% 33 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Rose Namajunas 0 8 of 37 21% 8 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natália Silva 51 of 133 38% 25 of 95 8 of 14 18 of 24 50 of 132 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 26 of 94 27% 11 of 64 3 of 13 12 of 17 26 of 92 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natália Silva 15 of 44 34% 10 of 32 1 of 3 4 of 9 15 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 13 of 39 33% 4 of 22 1 of 6 8 of 11 13 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Natália Silva 8 of 27 29% 4 of 22 0 of 1 4 of 4 8 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 5 of 18 27% 3 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Natália Silva 28 of 62 45% 11 of 41 7 of 10 10 of 11 27 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 8 of 37 21% 4 of 26 1 of 6 3 of 5 8 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Angelo picks Natália Silva, calling her faster, cleaner, and a better athlete. He praises her footwork and timing. He acknowledges Rose Namajunas's experience and fight IQ but believes Silva's youth and speed will prevail. He suggests over 2.5 rounds as a likely lock.

I think over two and a half is likely the lock of the card.
"I'm going to go with the younger, faster, better athlete here, and I think that is Natalya Silva."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Big Brady believes Silva is one of the best flyweights, with elite takedown defense (92%) and great striking volume and power. He thinks Rose will struggle similar to her fight with Fiorot, and Silva will piece her up over 15 minutes for a dominant decision win.

Silva by decision
"I think Silva's going to kind of kind of piece her up over the course of 15 minutes. I think it's going to be a pretty frustrating fight for Rose."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Cody confidently picks Natália Silva, citing her 92% takedown defense and striking volume. He believes Rose Namajunas struggles at 125 pounds and won't be able to secure takedowns. Cody expects Silva to win a unanimous decision, outworking Rose on the feet.

"I do I do have Silva to get the job done by unanimous decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Connor also picks Silva, agreeing that Rose Namajunas has not adapted well to flyweight. He notes that Rose's power and speed have diminished, and that she now has to outwork opponents—a style she never excelled at. Connor points out that Silva is faster, hits harder, and throws more, and that Rose's best chance (wrestling) is untested against Silva. He believes Silva's dynamism will be too much for Rose to handle.

Silva opened at -150, now -350; Namajunas opened at +130, now +285. Connor says the odds seem reasonable.
"I think it's a good matchup. I do over feel that I have to pick Silva."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Daniel Vreeland picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He praises Silva's confidence, well-rounded game, and impressive wins over former champions. He notes that Silva is younger, hungrier, and has speed that matches Namajunas. Vreeland believes Silva will beat Namajunas decisively and earn a title shot against Valentina Shevchenko.

"I'm calling a 3027 decision by Natalya Silva in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Natália Silva

James is confident in Silva, noting her superior footwork neutralizes Namajunas's best asset. He expects Silva to win via decision, possibly hurting Namajunas with kicks but not finishing her. He mentions Silva's taekwondo background and that she has cashed for him multiple times.

"Natalia Silva is literally taking away Rose's Namunis' best asset and attribute in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The host leans towards Silva by decision, praising her distance management and blitzing style. However, he finds the -410 line too wide and believes Rose Namajunas is live as a plus-310 underdog. He notes Namajunas's experience, improved grappling, and ability to counter mobile strikers. He suggests the over 2.5 rounds is a no-brainer and recommends betting on Namajunas for value.

Over 2.5 rounds, Namajunas moneyline recommended for betting
"minus 410 Silva is whack. That is way too far out of whack. I I am gonna lean her in terms of a prediction. Obviously, over two and a half would be a no-brainer here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Silva's speed and combination punching. He doubts Rose can get the wrestling going and believes Silva's quickness will overwhelm her. Paul sees a decision win for Silva, noting that a knockout prop is not worth the price.

"I think it just really comes down to speed. I don't know if Rose is going to be able to get the wrestling going. And on the feet, there's really nobody quicker um men or woman really out there than …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Natália Silva

The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva, praising her kicking game and ability to fight off the back foot. He notes that Rose Namajunas often leaves fights close and lacks offensive grappling at flyweight. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27.

decision, 30-27
"Natalyia Silva is going to get this one done by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Zane picks Natália Silva confidently, highlighting her incredible speed and high output. He notes that Silva's bad defensive habits (chin in the air) are mitigated by her speed and ability to counter, and that she has hurt every opponent she's faced. Zane argues that Rose Namajunas has lost power and speed at flyweight, and that she can no longer rely on fight-changing shots. He believes Silva's volume and pace will overwhelm Rose over three rounds.

Silva opened at -150, now -350; Namajunas opened at +130, now +285. Zane says the odds seem reasonable.
"I am going to be picking Natalia Silva. She is the coming woman in this division."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 1 25 of 86 29% 46 of 118 2 of 4 50% 0 0 6:33
Miranda Maverick 0 25 of 74 33% 52 of 108 0 of 2 0% 1 1 1:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 17 of 59 28% 18 of 60 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Miranda Maverick 0 20 of 58 34% 20 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 17 29% 9 of 26 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:05
Miranda Maverick 0 5 of 14 35% 22 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:45
3 Rose Namajunas 1 3 of 10 30% 19 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:13
Miranda Maverick 0 0 of 2 0% 10 of 17 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 25 of 86 29% 22 of 75 3 of 10 0 of 1 23 of 83 1 of 1 1 of 2
Miranda Maverick 25 of 74 33% 14 of 61 5 of 6 6 of 7 25 of 73 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 17 of 59 28% 15 of 50 2 of 8 0 of 1 16 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Miranda Maverick 20 of 58 34% 11 of 47 4 of 5 5 of 6 20 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Rose Namajunas 5 of 17 29% 5 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miranda Maverick 5 of 14 35% 3 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rose Namajunas 3 of 10 30% 2 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2
Miranda Maverick 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose because she is the better striker with superior footwork and technique. He acknowledges Miranda's wrestling threat but believes Rose can defend takedowns and out-strike her. He expresses concern about Rose's training situation but hopes she strings it together like she did against Tracy Cortez.

"Rose Namayuma should absolutely be the just better fighter across the board."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas by decision. He believes Rose is the better fighter overall, with superior striking and the ability to get takedowns against Maverick's sub-50% takedown defense. He worries slightly about Maverick's strength but notes Rose has done well at flyweight. He thinks Rose should win at least two rounds in a three-round fight.

"I'll take Rose to win this fight and win it by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Connor picks Namajunas, agreeing that Maverick is a 'Jake Matthews of women's flyweight'—athletic but aimless, with no clear idea how to win. He notes that Namajunas is much better in the clinch than she used to be and that Maverick's wrestling entries are poor. Connor believes Namajunas's speed, accuracy, and combination punching will allow her to outwork Maverick, and that Maverick's tendency to float and try things without a plan will be her undoing.

Namajunas opened at -289, now -249; Maverick opened at +214, now +220.
"I think this is just a really good style matchup for nami units"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

This is a closer fight than the odds suggest, but Namajunas's striking will reign supreme. She may have issues with Maverick's strength and clinch work, but she will get into open space, land more damage, and win a clear decision.

odds comment: closer fight than the odds suggest
"This is a closer fight than the odds suggest, but I expect Nama Ununas is striking to reign supreme here..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The Guru picks Rose Namajunas, calling her a much better technical martial artist. He notes her grappling defense and standup are superior, and she has size at flyweight. He expects a unanimous decision win, 30-27, as Rose outclasses Maverick everywhere.

"I'm going to go with Rose Namunas. She's a much better martial artist. This is a bit of a mismatch. Um a very big mismatch."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Zane picks Namajunas, citing her superior craft, movement, and jab-heavy striking as a clear advantage over Maverick's aimless, unprincipled game. He notes that Maverick lacks a clear process and often gets caught up striking when she should wrestle, while Namajunas is accurate, fast, and effective at kicking range. Zane believes Namajunas can outpoint Maverick over three rounds, as Maverick has consistently lost to fighters with a strong game plan.

Namajunas opened at -289, now -249; Maverick opened at +214, now +220. Zane thinks the line could get longer.
"I think rose is fully capable of just kind of being much craftier and more consistent than maverick and and taking a decision off of her"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 110 of 281 39% 193 of 387 2 of 8 25% 0 0 8:54
Rose Namajunas 0 94 of 245 38% 101 of 254 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 19 of 68 27% 19 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 30 of 61 49% 30 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 25 of 67 37% 28 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Rose Namajunas 0 23 of 65 35% 26 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
3 Erin Blanchfield 0 11 of 28 39% 48 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:38
Rose Namajunas 0 9 of 21 42% 10 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Erin Blanchfield 0 40 of 93 43% 43 of 97 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
Rose Namajunas 0 25 of 79 31% 25 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
5 Erin Blanchfield 0 15 of 25 60% 55 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:08
Rose Namajunas 0 7 of 19 36% 10 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 110 of 281 39% 81 of 248 15 of 16 14 of 17 103 of 269 2 of 6 5 of 6
Rose Namajunas 94 of 245 38% 68 of 212 18 of 24 8 of 9 91 of 241 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 19 of 68 27% 11 of 58 3 of 4 5 of 6 19 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 30 of 61 49% 22 of 52 2 of 3 6 of 6 30 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 25 of 67 37% 21 of 61 2 of 2 2 of 4 25 of 65 0 of 2 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 23 of 65 35% 17 of 58 5 of 5 1 of 2 22 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Erin Blanchfield 11 of 28 39% 7 of 24 2 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 24 0 of 2 1 of 2
Rose Namajunas 9 of 21 42% 7 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Erin Blanchfield 40 of 93 43% 29 of 82 6 of 6 5 of 5 40 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 25 of 79 31% 16 of 67 8 of 11 1 of 1 25 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Erin Blanchfield 15 of 25 60% 13 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 19 2 of 2 4 of 4
Rose Namajunas 7 of 19 36% 6 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas confidently, calling her an all-time great and a better striker than Erin Blanchfield. He notes Blanchfield's inability to get takedowns was exposed against Manon Fiorot, and without that, she is stuck in a striking match with a superior striker. He thinks five rounds help Rose, as she can afford to lose a round if taken down. He placed a half unit bet on Rose at plus 100 (even money).

half unit on Rose Namajunas at +100
"Rose should absolutely win this fight five rounds only helps Rose because if she does get taken down in a round and gives one up she's got four more to cover the distance she's not only the pick but she …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision. He questions Erin Blanchfield's wrestling, noting her low takedown accuracy (33%) and failure to take down opponents like Fiorot and Santos. He believes on the feet, Rose is clearly superior, and even if taken down, Rose's scrambling is good. Brady likes the plus money and thinks the big cage favors Rose.

plus money
"at plus money I'm going to I'm going to take the dog here and and Rose nunas I think it's going to be a very close fight... I'll take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody picks Rose Namajunas as an underdog, arguing that Blanchfield's takedown struggles against Manon Fiorot (0 for 3) and Taila Santos (0 for 14) show she can't reliably take down elite grapplers. He believes Rose's striking, footwork, and takedown defense will keep the fight standing, where she has the advantage. He also notes Rose's experience in five-round fights and her ability to mix in takedowns herself.

"I do kind of feel like maybe the plus money on Rose Nom units is a little more warranted so I'm going to go with that and I'm going to take RADS."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel Vreeland picks Erin Blanchfield to win, arguing that the line is influenced by recency bias from Blanchfield's loss to Manon Fiorot. He points out that Rose Namajunas has poor takedown defense (under 60%) compared to Fiorot's 93%, and that Blanchfield's grappling is a different level—she can take the back and submit opponents. Vreeland expects Blanchfield to pressure Namajunas, get takedowns, and potentially finish via ground-and-pound or submission.

"I'm going Aaron blanchfield to get back on track regain her hype"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Lucrative James picks Erin Blanchfield to win inside the distance, emphasizing her grappling advantage. He notes Rose has been taken down in recent fights and that Blanchfield's wrestling will be decisive. He believes Rose has lost some athleticism and that Blanchfield can finish via submission, likely a rear-naked choke.

wins inside the distance
"I'm taking Aaron blanchfield in this one and I actually think she gets it done inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Namajunas has shown tremendous defensive grappling improvements, and that will get her a victory over Blanchfield. She will win at least three of the five rounds by out-pointing and out-damaging Blanchfield, winning on the scorecards and positioning herself for a title shot.

"Namajunas has shown tremendous defensive grappling improvements and I believe that will get her a victory here over Blanchfield look for Namajunas to win at least three of the five rounds here by out pointing and out damaging Blanchfield and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul sides with Rose but is less confident, expecting a close split decision. He notes that Blanchfield's path to victory is through takedowns, but Rose has shown improved takedown defense and can win on the feet. He mentions the common opponent Jessica Andrade, where Rose won by decision and Blanchfield by submission, but sees the fight as competitive. He plans to bet the split decision prop rather than the moneyline.

split decision prop
"I expect the fight to be incredibly close on the feet on the mat and I'm going to side with rose but I don't plan on betting this but yeah I'll be looking for the split decision prop."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The Guru picks Rose Namajunas over Erin Blanchfield, calling Blanchfield overrated. He praises Namajunas's technical skills, scrambles, and wrestling reactions. He notes Blanchfield's poor performance against Manon Fiorot and believes Namajunas will win as an underdog.

"I'm going to go Rose wellt Tred fighter I don't think she's like man on fioro level but she took it to man on fioro and she broke her hand in that fight"
WIN vs Tracy Cortez
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 1 96 of 180 53% 119 of 215 5 of 5 100% 0 0 6:36
Tracy Cortez 0 58 of 198 29% 85 of 233 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 1 26 of 50 52% 30 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Tracy Cortez 0 12 of 43 27% 14 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rose Namajunas 0 26 of 46 56% 27 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Tracy Cortez 0 11 of 41 26% 12 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:16
3 Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 12 41% 15 of 31 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:47
Tracy Cortez 0 2 of 9 22% 8 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
4 Rose Namajunas 0 11 of 28 39% 17 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Tracy Cortez 0 12 of 44 27% 15 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
5 Rose Namajunas 0 28 of 44 63% 30 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
Tracy Cortez 0 21 of 61 34% 36 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 96 of 180 53% 66 of 146 17 of 20 13 of 14 93 of 175 3 of 5 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 58 of 198 29% 31 of 162 14 of 17 13 of 19 52 of 189 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 26 of 50 52% 16 of 39 4 of 5 6 of 6 26 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 12 of 43 27% 4 of 32 1 of 1 7 of 10 12 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rose Namajunas 26 of 46 56% 16 of 33 5 of 7 5 of 6 25 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 11 of 41 26% 7 of 36 2 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rose Namajunas 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 2 of 9 22% 1 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Rose Namajunas 11 of 28 39% 8 of 25 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 12 of 44 27% 7 of 37 4 of 5 1 of 2 10 of 40 2 of 4 0 of 0
5 Rose Namajunas 28 of 44 63% 21 of 37 6 of 6 1 of 1 28 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 21 of 61 34% 12 of 50 6 of 7 3 of 4 19 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas, citing her superior striking and overall skill. He believes Tracy Cortez's path to victory is through wrestling, but doubts she can take Rose down for 25 minutes, especially since Cortez was training for a three-round fight and now faces five rounds at elevation. He notes that Rose was taken down four times by Amanda Ribas, but Ribas used clinch tosses rather than traditional shots, which are easier to defend. Angelo plans to have multiple bets on Rose.

Plans to have a few bets on Rose.
"I got to go rose rose should win this fight she should probably dominate this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody picks Rose Namajunas, citing her experience at altitude, full camp, and superior striking. He notes Tracy Cortez's inactivity and short notice, and believes Rose's wrestling defense and offensive takedowns will be key. He expects a decision win for Rose.

"I think Thug Rose is a very rightful favorite here at minus 200."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Daniel Vreeland picks Tracy Cortez to upset Rose Namajunas. He argues that Cortez has a legitimate wrestling background, which historically gives Rose trouble, and that Rose is a 'hot and cold' fighter who struggles when faced with adversity. He notes Cortez's 11-fight win streak and that she was already preparing for a fight next week, so short notice isn't a major issue. He also mentions Rose's age and mileage, suggesting she may be slowing down. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and prefers the plus 185 underdog.

"I'm gonna go ahead and pick Tracy Cortez to upset Rose nunas and surprise a lot of people."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Rose Namajunas has the striking advantage and the cardio edge, especially at altitude. Cortez will land some takedowns, but over 25 minutes, Namajunas will land better strikes and even some takedowns of her own late, cruising to a decision. The line is a bit wide, but the former champion reigns supreme.

Namajunas by decision; odds comment: line a bit wide, wouldn't hate an underdog shot on Cortez
"I think from there she should be able to cruise to a decision the line for my liking a little bit too wide again I wouldn't hate anybody taking an underdog shot on Cortez but I do think the former …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Rose's full camp, altitude advantage, and five-round experience. He points out that Cortez's wrestling has been neutralized by upper-echelon opponents and that Rose's scrambling ability will nullify takedowns. He sees Rose winning by decision.

"I agree she's a rightful favorite I'm picking her to win."
WIN vs Amanda Ribas
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 0 83 of 270 30% 137 of 342 4 of 8 50% 0 0 1:38
Amanda Ribas 0 93 of 188 49% 169 of 281 1 of 3 33% 0 1 6:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 16 of 47 34% 30 of 63 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:18
Amanda Ribas 0 23 of 34 67% 35 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:55
2 Rose Namajunas 0 15 of 49 30% 22 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 19 of 39 48% 43 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:00
3 Rose Namajunas 0 18 of 50 36% 31 of 70 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:20
Amanda Ribas 0 19 of 36 52% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
4 Rose Namajunas 0 10 of 39 25% 29 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 7 of 25 28% 45 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:40
5 Rose Namajunas 0 24 of 85 28% 25 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 25 of 54 46% 26 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 83 of 270 30% 39 of 195 19 of 42 25 of 33 76 of 259 4 of 6 3 of 5
Amanda Ribas 93 of 188 49% 45 of 124 44 of 60 4 of 4 81 of 176 12 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 16 of 47 34% 8 of 33 2 of 6 6 of 8 14 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 23 of 34 67% 6 of 16 16 of 17 1 of 1 16 of 27 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Rose Namajunas 15 of 49 30% 7 of 34 3 of 8 5 of 7 14 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 19 of 39 48% 12 of 27 6 of 11 1 of 1 18 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rose Namajunas 18 of 50 36% 10 of 39 3 of 5 5 of 6 15 of 44 0 of 1 3 of 5
Amanda Ribas 19 of 36 52% 11 of 26 7 of 9 1 of 1 17 of 34 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Rose Namajunas 10 of 39 25% 3 of 28 2 of 5 5 of 6 10 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 7 of 25 28% 4 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Rose Namajunas 24 of 85 28% 11 of 61 9 of 18 4 of 6 23 of 83 1 of 2 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 25 of 54 46% 12 of 36 12 of 17 1 of 1 23 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite rooting for Amanda Ribas. He acknowledges Rose's superior skills and accomplishments but is concerned about her mental state and training camp. He notes that Rose has not looked bad in recent losses, being outstruck by a larger striker in Manon Fiorot and having a boring fight with Carla Esparza. He hopes Ribas wins but cannot pick against Rose's talent.

"I got to pick rose rose is going to be the pick Amanda's going to stay in her face hopefully Amanda rips her to the ground and just beats on her and breaks her and wins this fight let's have …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas, stating she is the much better fighter with a better resume. He notes Rose is the better striker, has good grappling, and has gone five rounds before. He points out Ribas is less durable (knocked out three times) and this is her first five-round fight. He predicts a decision win for Rose.

"I got to go Rose here I mean I I just think she's the much better fighter... I'm going to take rose on my un to win this fight and to Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody acknowledges Rose's technical skills and well-rounded game, but highlights her mental inconsistency and tendency to have flat performances like the Carla Esparza fight. He notes that Rose is capable of looking like a -500 favorite or just handing rounds away. He ultimately picks Rose but with hesitancy due to these red flags.

"I will take Rose but again there's always going to be some hesitancy there."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Amanda Ribas if the fight goes past the first two rounds, citing Rose's tendency to fade or lose focus when extended. He notes Ribas has better output, wrestling, and durability in later rounds, while Rose's path is an early knockout. He acknowledges Rose's danger but prefers the dog at plus money.

"if this fight gets extended I think that her output's on the higher side as well and it's one of those things where Rose is very momentum based"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Namajunas has superior technical striking and should be able to set traps and land clean shots. Ribas is durable but leaves openings and has been finished by technical strikers before. Namajunas should stop takedowns and control the striking, likely finishing by TKO in the third round. The under on 4.5 rounds is favored, indicating a finish is expected.

Namajunas by TKO (round 3); under 4.5 rounds
"I think we see Nami yunas control this fight in the Striking realm I think she stops the takedowns... and then I think we obviously see Nami unas find that knockout I'm going to call it round three."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul points out that Amanda Ribas has been bouncing between weight classes and hasn't filled out her frame at 125. He credits Rose's performance against Manon Fiorot, where she fought through a broken hand, and believes Rose will learn from her flat performance against Carla Esparza. He picks Rose but acknowledges the possibility of another lackluster showing.

"I got Rose as well... I'll hope that she's learned her lesson from that absolutely flat performance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas over Amanda Ribas, citing Rose's shot placement and five-round experience. He thinks Ribas' chin is suspect and that Rose will hurt her on the feet. He predicts a second-round rear-naked choke after dropping Ribas with a punch.

second round rear-naked choke
"I'm going Rosen am yunas over Amanda Ribas... second round re naked choke to Rose nunas"
LOSS vs Manon Fiorot
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manon Fiorot 0 58 of 225 25% 62 of 232 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Rose Namajunas 0 60 of 150 40% 60 of 152 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manon Fiorot 0 18 of 88 20% 18 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 23 of 56 41% 23 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Manon Fiorot 0 19 of 69 27% 23 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Rose Namajunas 0 15 of 40 37% 15 of 41 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
3 Manon Fiorot 0 21 of 68 30% 21 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 22 of 54 40% 22 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manon Fiorot 58 of 225 25% 39 of 197 15 of 22 4 of 6 53 of 214 4 of 10 1 of 1
Rose Namajunas 60 of 150 40% 32 of 107 15 of 26 13 of 17 59 of 148 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manon Fiorot 18 of 88 20% 14 of 82 2 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 23 of 56 41% 11 of 37 4 of 8 8 of 11 23 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Manon Fiorot 19 of 69 27% 11 of 55 7 of 11 1 of 3 17 of 62 2 of 7 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 15 of 40 37% 10 of 31 4 of 8 1 of 1 14 of 38 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Manon Fiorot 21 of 68 30% 14 of 60 6 of 7 1 of 1 18 of 64 2 of 3 1 of 1
Rose Namajunas 22 of 54 40% 11 of 39 7 of 10 4 of 5 22 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Manon Fiorot vs. Rose Namajunas
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiorot (-185), Namajunas (+154)

Round 1
The bout that likely holds the greatest immediate title implications today comes in the co-main event, between two flyweights. Competing in MMA on French soil for the first time, Nice-born Fiorot (10-1, 5-0 UFC) hopes that a win over former champ Namajunas (11-5, 9-4 UFC) will propel her to the top of the weight class. On the other side of the equation, “Thug Rose” will be making her first jaunt to 125 pounds after multiple championship reigns down at strawweight. The size difference is not as significant as some might expect, and the women will have upwards of 15 minutes to state their case as elite members of the division. As referee Rich Mitchell stands by, the two ladies decide against bumping fists. Namajunas snaps out a quick right hand, and Fiorot responds with a left. Namajunas lands a low kick, and she pushes off with a side kick as Fiorot crowds her. Namajunas misses with a back fist, and Fiorot lands with a stern right hook. Fiorot stands fearlessly in front of her opponent, and she misses with a one-two and tries to catch her with a second. Namajunas slides to the side and sneak out a left hook. Fiorot catches Namajunas before the former champ can get off a combination, and she connects with a body shot when Namajunas closes the distance. Namajunas kicks low and shoots for a single, and the Frenchwoman tosses her aside with little effort. Fiorot keeps her range with a low kick and lunging jab, and her kicks are successfully keeping Namajunas at bay. Fiorot gets off a jab and a one-two, and Namajunas parries the latter. Namajunas beats Fiorot to the punch with a left hand, and she lands this same punch two more times. Namajunas kicks the lead leg, and Fiorot backs her off with short combinations of punches. Namajunas lands one kick and takes three punches off the top before she can reset. Namajunas manages to get in a single left, and Fiorot ignores it. Fiorot misses with a strike, and Namajunas slips her and connects cleanly with a left hand. As the former champ blocks a kick, she meanders forward and evades the other strikes with decent head movement. Namajunas drops down to her knees to snatch up a single, and Fiorot shuts it down and gets away. Fiorot lands cleanly with a left hand on the nose, and she bats Namajunas away with a side kick. The round ends with Fiorot jabbing.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 2
Between rounds, Namajunas informs her corner that she broke her right pink finger, and partner Pat Barry says “that’s alright, you don’t need her finger.” Namajunas is not discouraged despite the potential injury, and she is ready to resume action. Namajunas gets in Fiorot’s face early with a flurry of punches, and Fiorot stays composed and does not take many strikes cleanly. Fiorot boxes Namajunas up with a few shots ending with a short right hook, and two punches send Namajunas off-balance. Namajunas topples over, and she climbs to her knees and up as Fiorot rushes at her. Namajunas fights her way out of the clinch, only to absorb a flush knee to the body. Namajunas swipes out with a left, and her strikes do not have near the impact compared to her opponent’s – and the size difference does appear to be widening the competitive gap between the two. Fiorot takes a hook kick on the nose, and she leans back to dodge a subsequent spinning wheel kick in the nick of time. Fiorot spams punches, and Namajunas evades every single one and comes back with a right hand over the top. Fiorot times a head kick as Namajunas comes in on her, and Namajunas is able to respond with a huge right hand that shakes Fiorot up at the same time Fiorot tosses a side kick. Namajunas uses the moment to pursue a takedown, but Fiorot outmuscles her and keeps herself upright before breaking free. Namajunas lands a right hand on the break, and she holds her guard high to defend against a kick. Both women swing at the same time and duck down, and their heads clack together as a sizeable cut opens on Fiorot’s right temple. Fiorot pays it no mind and tells Mitchell she is fine, and the blood flow is not presenting any issues. Namajunas times a left hand on that target, and she gets pushed back from a side kick. Fiorot sweeps the leg, and she absorbs a good right hand on the way out. Namajunas scores a short left, but Fiorot lands two back at her. Namajunas swings hard, and she does land a left hook, only for Fiorot to completely ignore it as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 3
There is no plan on a glove touch to start the last round, and instead Namajunas is ready to go to battle and try to pull off a comeback. Namajunas lets go with a head kick and shoots for a single, and Fiorot blocks the former and stuffs the latter. Namajunas resets and chops at the lead leg, and she darts forward with a pair of punches that whiz past the Frenchwoman. Namajunas whips a left hand over the top, and she lands another before changing levels. Fiorot will not allow herself to be taken down, and she bucks out of the posture and gets back to kickboxing range. Fiorot gets off a stomp kick to the knee, and Namajunas rushes at her opponent only to miss wide. Namajunas sticks Fiorot during an exchange, and Fiorot retaliates with a trio of punches. Fiorot comes up just short when trying to counter a leg kick, and she absorbs a flush right hand but keeps on moving. The former champ scores a right hand, but it is one-and-done as Fiorot is well away from any strikes that could possibly follow. Fiorot snipes with her jab and swiping right hook, using it to stop Namajunas from getting on the inside. Namajunas chases after Fiorot, and they trade head kicks – Fiorot’s lands much harder. Namajunas tries to cut off the cage, but Fiorot is elusive and her timing is erratic enough to not let Namajunas track her down. Namajunas dings her foe with three left hooks, and Fiorot slips but gathers herself and leans back against the wall instead of falling down. Namajunas looks for a few strikes, and Fiorot breaks off and escapes. Namajunas continues her pursuit, and Fiorot gets out of danger and watches a spin kick soar past her as time elapses.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (30-27 Fiorot)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (30-27 Fiorot)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (30-27 Fiorot)

The Official Result
Manon Fiorot def. Rose Namajunas via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Angelo is confident Manon Fiorot dominates, citing her size, power, and volume. He notes Rose Namajunas is moving up in weight and lacks volume compared to Manon. He points out Manon has landed more strikes in each of her last five wins than Rose did in five-round fights. He has parlayed Manon with Ange Loosa.

parlayed with Ange Loosa for plus money
"I think mannon dominates this fight... I have parlayed her with Ange loosa for some plus money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Big Brady picks Fiorot, citing her size, strength, power, and volume advantage over the smaller Namajunas moving up from strawweight. He doubts Rose can outgrapple, outvolume, or knock out Fiorot. He expects Fiorot to win a decision, though he acknowledges Rose's striking talent and calls it an interesting test.

"in terms of a pick I'm gonna pick Fiora to win this fight... fioro does get it done and get it done here by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Cody picks Fiorot due to size and strength advantages at flyweight, and questions Rose's motivation after a lackluster performance against Esparza. He notes Rose's striking advantages were not used in that fight and she has been off for a year. Fiorot's kicking game and French crowd support are key factors. Cody sees Rose's offensive wrestling as a potential path but doubts she can take down or hold down a strong flyweight.

"the pick will be minnow Fiero for me"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Daniel Levi picks Manon Fiorot, arguing that Fiorot's elusive, outside-fighting style will frustrate Rose Namajunas, who thrives in pocket boxing exchanges. He believes Fiorot will use sidekicks and movement to keep Rose at range, preventing her from letting her hands go. Levi dismisses the size narrative, stating that Fiorot is not a pressure grappler so the weight class difference is irrelevant. He expects a clear 30-27 decision, noting that Fiorot has a history of outpointing tough opponents like Mayra Bueno Silva.

Fiorot by decision
"I think Manon fioro is going to be on the outside and she's gonna make rose now my units come to her... I think she's gonna frustrate her and I see her 30-27 here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 2, 2023 (fight day)
Manon Fiorot

Lucrative James is on Fiorot, having bet on her almost every fight. He thinks Fiorot is legit, top-five material, and that Rose is meeting her at the wrong time. He notes Rose's mental issues, long layoff, career-worst performance, and step up in weight. He believes Fiorot is bigger and stronger, and that Rose hasn't been finished except by Carla Esparza long ago. He likes Fiorot by points at +140, as he doesn't see a finish.

Manon Fiorot by decision (+140)
"I like Pharrell here and I like ferovia points at plus 140. I think that's a good bet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

I'm leaning with Fiorot here. She has great takedown defense and a dynamic striking style with power and volume. Rose is a wild card mentally and may struggle with the weight cut to flyweight. Fiorot's footwork and ability to stay at distance should allow her to land significant strikes. However, I don't have a boatload of confidence because Rose has the experience advantage and could potentially get takedowns if she closes the distance. I think Fiorot wins by decision.

"I'm gonna lean with hero here you know she's gonna have a two inch height Advantage uh uh just an inch reach Advantage but I think it's mainly the power in which he throws and her comfortability in the Striking …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Paul also picks Fiorot, emphasizing her size and strength advantage. He doubts Rose's motivation and notes her inability to engage against Esparza. Paul thinks Rose's offensive wrestling could be a factor but that Fiorot's takedown defense and submission defense are solid. He expects a striking affair where Fiorot's speed and kicking game prevail, likely by decision (29-28 or 30-27).

"I'm gonna go firo five round fight... at least 29 28 hopefully a 30 27."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

The MMA Guru picks Manon Fiorot by TKO, citing her physicality and dangerous stand-up, while Rose Namajunas appears mentally checked out. He notes Rose's lack of activity, her poor performance against Carla Esparza, and her loss in a grappling match. He believes Fiorot will overwhelm Rose with a flurry of punches in round one.

"I'm going with man on Fiora TKO is my prediction I think Rose is checked out of the game"
LOSS vs Carla Esparza
Decision (split) (47–48, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 37 of 136 27% 38 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
Rose Namajunas 0 30 of 133 22% 30 of 133 2 of 11 18% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 4 of 19 21% 4 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 4 of 19 21% 4 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carla Esparza 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Carla Esparza 0 11 of 36 30% 11 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 9 of 32 28% 9 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
4 Carla Esparza 0 6 of 28 21% 7 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Rose Namajunas 0 8 of 29 27% 8 of 29 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:20
5 Carla Esparza 0 13 of 39 33% 13 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 31 16% 5 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 37 of 136 27% 30 of 122 6 of 12 1 of 2 36 of 135 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 30 of 133 22% 15 of 108 4 of 11 11 of 14 27 of 128 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 4 of 19 21% 4 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 4 of 19 21% 2 of 17 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carla Esparza 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 4 of 22 18% 1 of 17 1 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carla Esparza 11 of 36 30% 10 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 1 11 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 9 of 32 28% 7 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 1 8 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Carla Esparza 6 of 28 21% 6 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 8 of 29 27% 3 of 22 1 of 3 4 of 4 6 of 25 2 of 4 0 of 0
5 Carla Esparza 13 of 39 33% 7 of 30 5 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 5 of 31 16% 2 of 24 0 of 3 3 of 4 5 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite acknowledging Carla's wrestling. He argues that Weili Zhang took Rose down five times but still lost, and that Carla's top pressure isn't as good as it should be. He believes Rose only has to worry about the wrestling, whereas Weili was a threat on the feet too.

"rose is the pick i'm gonna be rooting for carla i want carla to win but if five takedowns and 162 strikes landed didn't get wei lee the nod i just don't know what carla's gonna be able to do"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges that Esparza will likely take Rose down multiple times, as Rose's takedown defense is only 51% and she hasn't faced many wrestlers. However, he believes Rose's get-up game and activity off her back will prevent Esparza from holding her down for long. On the feet, Rose has a clear advantage. He notes that if this were a three-round fight, he might pick Esparza, but over five rounds, Esparza's wrestling-heavy style is harder to sustain. He is not in love with the price tag.

decision
"I like rose nominee units to win this fight I don't think she like wins every round I do think esparza is going to take off a round or two but I do think as far as picking a winner …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Rose Namajunas. He notes that Esparza's wrestling was effective a lifetime ago but Rose has improved her grappling significantly. Cody cites Tatiana Suarez's take that Esparza isn't physically strong and may not outmuscle Rose. He points out that Esparza has never fought into a fourth round, while Rose has championship-round experience. Cody believes Rose can nullify takedowns, get back up, and eventually win by late stoppage or decision.

"i think it's a favorable fight for rose nominess for sure"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas but is not confident, calling it a 'dog or pass' fight. He acknowledges Carla Esparza will land takedowns and has a path to victory, but believes Rose has more ways to win, especially on the feet. He says he would take Rose if the odds were closer to pick'em, but at -220 he is not betting. He respects the value on Esparza at plus 180 and thinks the true odds are around Rose -145 to -150.

Daniel mentions he is not betting this fight. He notes the under 4.5 rounds at +155 is interesting but does not bet it.
"I would take Rose if pick'em fight, I'd take Rose. Maybe minus 150 I'd consider, but I just don't want to lay chalk."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The host picks Rose Namajunas, believing her striking and range management have improved significantly since their first fight. He expects Rose to focus on defending takedowns and getting back to her feet. He notes Carla's takedowns can be sloppy and she doesn't do much damage on top. He thinks Rose's ability to create space and her deceptive power will be key. He is not betting Rose at -205, but likes under 4.5 rounds at +135.

under 4.5 rounds +135
"so give me rose and still"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul picks Rose Namajunas, calling it a straightforward striker vs grappler matchup. He believes Rose's camp has focused on sprawl training and that if the fight stays on the feet, Esparza cannot compete. Paul suggests live betting Esparza if she gets an early takedown, but overall expects Rose to retain her title. He notes the -210 line might be a bit wide but still favors Rose.

live betting Esparza if she gets early takedown
"i think rose rates the ship here gets back on track it's a very very straightforward fight for her"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her improved stand-up and grappling. He notes that Esparza's recent wins have been close and that she doesn't dominate on the ground anymore. He believes Namajunas will stuff takedowns, chew up Esparza's legs, and eventually submit her in the fourth round via rear-naked choke. He mentions the odds are close because Esparza has a previous win, but thinks Namajunas is the better fighter.

Rose Namajunas by fourth round finish, rear-naked choke
"i'm going to have to go with rose and amy eunice and i'll go over rose nami eunis by uh fourth round finish real naked choke"
WIN vs Zhang Weili
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 0 86 of 168 51% 130 of 219 2 of 2 100% 0 1 7:00
Zhang Weili 0 83 of 173 47% 162 of 272 5 of 11 45% 0 0 3:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 20 of 36 55% 22 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zhang Weili 0 22 of 38 57% 36 of 56 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:08
2 Rose Namajunas 0 20 of 45 44% 22 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
Zhang Weili 0 16 of 39 41% 21 of 44 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:38
3 Rose Namajunas 0 14 of 38 36% 16 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Zhang Weili 0 25 of 51 49% 29 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
4 Rose Namajunas 0 14 of 23 60% 39 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:32
Zhang Weili 0 12 of 27 44% 32 of 50 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:54
5 Rose Namajunas 0 18 of 26 69% 31 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:55
Zhang Weili 0 8 of 18 44% 44 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 86 of 168 51% 57 of 131 12 of 17 17 of 20 60 of 136 6 of 6 20 of 26
Zhang Weili 83 of 173 47% 36 of 112 14 of 16 33 of 45 64 of 138 5 of 8 14 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 20 of 36 55% 11 of 25 3 of 5 6 of 6 17 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 0
Zhang Weili 22 of 38 57% 6 of 19 5 of 5 11 of 14 19 of 34 1 of 1 2 of 3
2 Rose Namajunas 20 of 45 44% 12 of 36 5 of 6 3 of 3 16 of 39 2 of 2 2 of 4
Zhang Weili 16 of 39 41% 6 of 28 4 of 5 6 of 6 13 of 36 1 of 1 2 of 2
3 Rose Namajunas 14 of 38 36% 11 of 33 0 of 0 3 of 5 13 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Zhang Weili 25 of 51 49% 13 of 33 4 of 4 8 of 14 19 of 43 3 of 4 3 of 4
4 Rose Namajunas 14 of 23 60% 9 of 16 3 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 18 0 of 0 4 of 5
Zhang Weili 12 of 27 44% 6 of 20 1 of 1 5 of 6 9 of 16 0 of 2 3 of 9
5 Rose Namajunas 18 of 26 69% 14 of 21 1 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 9 0 of 0 14 of 17
Zhang Weili 8 of 18 44% 5 of 12 0 of 1 3 of 5 4 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo picks Zhang Weili, believing she will make adjustments after the first fight. He thinks Weili will protect her chin, push the pace, and use her boxing to outwork Rose. He notes that Rose's win came from a single head kick and that there wasn't much to analyze from the short fight. He sees Weili's power and determination as key factors.

"i'm leaning towards wayley here honestly uh i think she'll make the adjustments she'll protect her chin i think she'll push the pace in this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by decision. He notes Zhang's power, volume, and cardio advantage, while Rose may slow down as the fight goes on. Brady thinks the first few rounds will be competitive, but Zhang's pressure and durability will wear on Rose. He also mentions Zhang's move to Fight Ready and her takedown potential, though Rose is dangerous on the ground. He expects Zhang to win down the stretch, possibly with a late finish.

win by decision
"give me zhang waili to win give me zhang wai lee to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody agrees with Paul, citing Rose's precision striking and ability to find openings. He notes Zhang's durability but believes Rose's technique and submission game give her the edge. He compares it to Rose's first win over Joanna and sees value in the champion as an underdog.

"i agree 100 with you my friend i don't think you can turn away from it i think it's a live dog shot"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas to defend her belt, expressing that the line is disrespectful to Rose at plus 105. He believes Rose is the better striker with more power and setups, and that Zhang Weili may be in denial about the first fight. Levi expects adjustments from Zhang, such as calf kicks, but thinks Rose's toughness and experience in rematches (3-0) will carry her. He notes that Rose is undefeated at Madison Square Garden and that Zhang's cardio advantage may be overstated.

plus 105 underdog
"why is rose nominees the underdog in this spot i mean ... i am going to pick her to defend her belt here against wylie"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Jacob picks Rose Namajunas, saying he will never bet against her again. He believes Weili's new focus on wrestling with Henry Cejudo could backfire, as Rose has excellent jiu-jitsu. He has a moneyline bet and a submission prop on Rose. He thinks Rose has the 'it factor' and thrives in big moments.

Submission win prop; Moneyline bet at -102 (2 units)
"i'm never gonna bet against rose again man i think she's burned me so many times... i put a money line bet on her like a two unit bet i even put so i put a submission win on her …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Zhang Weili

The host leans Zhang by decision, expecting her to use takedowns to sway judges in close rounds. He thinks the fight goes 25 minutes and likes the over 4.5 rounds at -125. He notes Zhang's new camp but limited time to adjust.

Over 4.5 rounds (-125), Zhang by decision (+250)
"i'm going to go wildly zhang i'm going to pick her by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul picks Rose as a live underdog, noting she knocked Zhang out in the first fight and is being undervalued. He questions Zhang's wrestling improvements with Cejudo and believes Rose's precision striking and submission threat are key. He sees the line as too easy to pass up.

"rose is the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her youth, reach advantage, and grappling edge. He believes Zhang's mindset will be affected by her first KO loss and the crowd booing her. The Guru predicts a third-round rear-naked choke submission, noting Namajunas' ability to bounce back and her training with Trevor Wittman.

third round rear naked choke
"I'm going to go over eunis uh mainly because."
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas confidently, calling her an all-time great and a better striker than Erin Blanchfield. He notes Blanchfield's inability to get takedowns was exposed against Manon Fiorot, and without that, she is stuck in a striking match with a superior striker. He thinks five rounds help Rose, as she can afford to lose a round if taken down. He placed a half unit bet on Rose at plus 100 (even money).

half unit on Rose Namajunas at +100
"Rose should absolutely win this fight five rounds only helps Rose because if she does get taken down in a round and gives one up she's got four more to cover the distance she's not only the pick but she is at plus 100 right now she's the dog I …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision. He questions Erin Blanchfield's wrestling, noting her low takedown accuracy (33%) and failure to take down opponents like Fiorot and Santos. He believes on the feet, Rose is clearly superior, and even if taken down, Rose's scrambling is good. Brady likes the plus money and thinks the big cage favors Rose.

plus money
"at plus money I'm going to I'm going to take the dog here and and Rose nunas I think it's going to be a very close fight... I'll take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody picks Rose Namajunas as an underdog, arguing that Blanchfield's takedown struggles against Manon Fiorot (0 for 3) and Taila Santos (0 for 14) show she can't reliably take down elite grapplers. He believes Rose's striking, footwork, and takedown defense will keep the fight standing, where she has the advantage. He also notes Rose's experience in five-round fights and her ability to mix in takedowns herself.

"I do kind of feel like maybe the plus money on Rose Nom units is a little more warranted so I'm going to go with that and I'm going to take RADS."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel Vreeland picks Erin Blanchfield to win, arguing that the line is influenced by recency bias from Blanchfield's loss to Manon Fiorot. He points out that Rose Namajunas has poor takedown defense (under 60%) compared to Fiorot's 93%, and that Blanchfield's grappling is a different level—she can take the back and submit opponents. Vreeland expects Blanchfield to pressure Namajunas, get takedowns, and potentially finish via ground-and-pound or submission.

"I'm going Aaron blanchfield to get back on track regain her hype"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Lucrative James picks Erin Blanchfield to win inside the distance, emphasizing her grappling advantage. He notes Rose has been taken down in recent fights and that Blanchfield's wrestling will be decisive. He believes Rose has lost some athleticism and that Blanchfield can finish via submission, likely a rear-naked choke.

wins inside the distance
"I'm taking Aaron blanchfield in this one and I actually think she gets it done inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Namajunas has shown tremendous defensive grappling improvements, and that will get her a victory over Blanchfield. She will win at least three of the five rounds by out-pointing and out-damaging Blanchfield, winning on the scorecards and positioning herself for a title shot.

"Namajunas has shown tremendous defensive grappling improvements and I believe that will get her a victory here over Blanchfield look for Namajunas to win at least three of the five rounds here by out pointing and out damaging Blanchfield and winning this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul sides with Rose but is less confident, expecting a close split decision. He notes that Blanchfield's path to victory is through takedowns, but Rose has shown improved takedown defense and can win on the feet. He mentions the common opponent Jessica Andrade, where Rose won by decision and Blanchfield by submission, but sees the fight as competitive. He plans to bet the split decision prop rather than the moneyline.

split decision prop
"I expect the fight to be incredibly close on the feet on the mat and I'm going to side with rose but I don't plan on betting this but yeah I'll be looking for the split decision prop."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The Guru picks Rose Namajunas over Erin Blanchfield, calling Blanchfield overrated. He praises Namajunas's technical skills, scrambles, and wrestling reactions. He notes Blanchfield's poor performance against Manon Fiorot and believes Namajunas will win as an underdog.

"I'm going to go Rose wellt Tred fighter I don't think she's like man on fioro level but she took it to man on fioro and she broke her hand in that fight"