Career Averages - Yair Rodríguez
Career Averages - Charles Rosa
Yair Rodríguez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 1 | 70 of 122 | 57% | 97 of 157 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Patrício Pitbull | 0 | 17 of 50 | 34% | 23 of 60 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 26 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patrício Pitbull | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 25 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Patrício Pitbull | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 8 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 1 | 38 of 56 | 67% | 46 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Patrício Pitbull | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 70 of 122 | 57% | 38 of 82 | 18 of 23 | 14 of 17 | 43 of 89 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 31 |
| Patrício Pitbull | 17 of 50 | 34% | 8 of 38 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 11 of 21 | 52% | 3 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Patrício Pitbull | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 21 of 45 | 46% | 8 of 28 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 20 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Patrício Pitbull | 8 of 26 | 30% | 5 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 38 of 56 | 67% | 27 of 44 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 31 |
| Patrício Pitbull | 5 of 14 | 35% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Connor picks Rodríguez, echoing Zane's reasoning about Pitbull's vulnerability to aggressive strikers. He notes that Pitbull has struggled against fighters who pressure him early and that Rodríguez's length and kicking game pose unique problems. Connor acknowledges Pitbull's experience and ability to adjust between fights but believes Rodríguez's style is a bad matchup for the current version of Pitbull.
Daniel Levi states that Yair Rodríguez schooled Patrício Pitbull, being much faster and more dynamic, and was a couple steps ahead all night. He notes that Pitbull looked shopworn and didn't shine in the big moment.
Lucrative James picks Patrício Pitbull to win, citing his experience, grappling advantage, and power. He believes Pitbull's wrestling and top control will be key, and he expects him to submit or ground-and-pound Rodríguez. He acknowledges Rodríguez's flashy kicks and danger but thinks Pitbull's cerebral style and veteran savvy will prevail. He notes that Pitbull is 37 and may be past his prime, but he still sees him as the better fighter overall. He also thinks the UFC is setting Pitbull up for a win to inject new blood into the division.
Zane picks Rodríguez, citing Pitbull's history of losing to aggressive, high-output fighters who take the initiative early. He notes that Pitbull has become a patient counter-puncher, which plays into Rodríguez's strengths as a long-range striker with dynamic kicks. Zane points to Pitbull's recent loss to Chihiro Suzuki as evidence that he can be overwhelmed by a powerful, wild striker. He acknowledges Pitbull's grappling and experience but believes Rodríguez's reach and willingness to attack from distance will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 1 | 55 of 115 | 47% | 64 of 135 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 28 of 73 | 38% | 47 of 104 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 5:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 1 | 45 of 91 | 49% | 50 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 6 of 28 | 21% | 7 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Brian Ortega | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 39 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 | |
| 3 | Brian Ortega | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 55 of 115 | 47% | 36 of 91 | 11 of 15 | 8 of 9 | 34 of 86 | 9 of 12 | 12 of 17 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 28 of 73 | 38% | 26 of 69 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 45 of 91 | 49% | 28 of 69 | 10 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 24 of 62 | 9 of 12 | 12 of 17 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 6 of 28 | 21% | 5 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brian Ortega | 9 of 17 | 52% | 7 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 22 of 44 | 50% | 21 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 20 | |
| 3 | Brian Ortega | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ortega with low confidence, citing the first fight where Ortega was winning before his shoulder injury. He notes the elevation and crowd in Mexico could favor Rodriguez, but trusts his brain over his gut. He worries about Ortega's long layoff but believes he can squeak out a win.
Big Brady picks Yair Rodríguez to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Rodríguez has been more active and looked impressive against Josh Emmett, while Ortega has had a long layoff. He believes Rodríguez has the advantage on the feet with his kicks and power, and that Ortega is hittable. He doubts Ortega's wrestling will be effective, as Rodríguez stuffed takedowns in their first fight. He expects Rodríguez to dominate at range and eventually finish Ortega.
Cody picks Ortega, noting that in their first fight Ortega was winning before the shoulder injury. He believes Ortega's skills haven't digressed, his jiu-jitsu is second to none, and his wrestling is good enough to take down Rodriguez. He also mentions Ortega's ability to come back better after layoffs, as he did after the Holloway loss. He considers the plus 130 price good value.
The host recalls the first fight where Rodríguez kept Ortega at bay with striking and Ortega's only success was a clinch takedown that led to an injury. He believes Rodríguez needs to keep the fight standing, and even if it goes to the ground, Rodríguez has worked on his jiu-jitsu to defend and get back to his feet. He predicts Rodríguez will finish Ortega by the third round.
Paul is leaning towards Ortega but is hesitant due to the year-and-a-half layoff, Ortega's age (33), and his recent record (lost last two, hasn't finished in six years). However, he acknowledges Ortega matched up well in the first fight and has the skills to win. He says if he had a gun to his head he'd pick Ortega, but it's a wild card pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 66 of 97 | 68% | 149 of 198 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 7:13 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 40 of 80 | 50% | 57 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 49 of 58 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 18 of 25 | 72% | 55 of 75 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 24 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 37 of 57 | 64% | 45 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 23 of 52 | 44% | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 66 of 97 | 68% | 48 of 69 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 23 | 25 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 37 of 46 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 40 of 80 | 50% | 13 of 49 | 11 of 14 | 16 of 17 | 38 of 77 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 11 of 15 | 73% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 11 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 18 of 25 | 72% | 15 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 14 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 12 of 19 | 63% | 4 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 37 of 57 | 64% | 24 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 14 | 19 of 31 | 3 of 5 | 15 of 21 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 23 of 52 | 44% | 8 of 35 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 10 | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Volkanovski, calling the -400 odds appropriate. He highlights Volkanovski's speed, kick usage, takedowns, and strength, and notes his performance against Islam Makhachev. He thinks Volkanovski will control the pace, mix in takedowns, and keep Rodríguez on the back foot, preventing his wild striking. He acknowledges Rodríguez's danger but believes Volkanovski is on another level.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by late stoppage (fourth round). He notes that Volkanovski is the better striker with more volume and better defense, and he has a huge advantage in wrestling and ground and pound. He points out that Rodríguez has poor takedown defense and no answers off his back, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens, Max Holloway, and Josh Emmett. He believes Volkanovski will take Rodríguez down, beat him up, and get a doctor stoppage or TKO in the later rounds.
Cody picks Volkanovski to retain, citing his durability, cardio, and submission defense. He notes Yair's danger with unorthodox strikes but believes Volk's constant pressure and takedowns will be decisive. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair's style. He leans toward Volk by decision but wouldn't be surprised by a stoppage.
Connor picks Volkanovski, emphasizing his championship quality and preparation. He acknowledges Yair's danger, especially his kicking game and durability, but believes Volkanovski's pressure and wrestling will be decisive. Connor notes that Volkanovski's ability to take Yair down and control him on the ground is the path to victory.
Daniel Levi picks Volkanovski, citing his elite fainting game, ability to out-jab taller opponents, and superior boxing in close range. He notes Volkanovski's takedown of Islam Makhachev as evidence of his wrestling prowess, which he believes will be a key advantage against Yair's suspect takedown defense. Levi acknowledges Yair's unique kicking arsenal and the head-kick KO history of Volkanovski, but expects Volkanovski's pressure and cardio to take over as the fight progresses. He also mentions that Yair's energy-intensive style may lead to a slowdown in later rounds.
James picks Volkanovski to win by ground-and-pound, likely in rounds 3 or 4. He believes Volkanovski's superior fight IQ and grappling advantage will be decisive. He notes Rodríguez has clear deficiencies on the ground and Volkanovski has heavy ground-and-pound. He also mentions the weight cut factor for Volkanovski moving back down, but still favors him. He does not advocate betting the moneyline at -400, but likes the inside distance prop.
Volkanovski is the more polished and disciplined fighter with excellent striking defense, movement, and wrestling. Rodriguez has flashy striking and an active guard, but has been broken before. Volkanovski will close distance, land takedowns, and control the fight, likely winning by decision. He is a safe parlay piece.
Paul agrees with Cody, stating it's tough to go against Volk at 145. He highlights Volk's ability to win on volume or by mixing in wrestling, and his proven submission defense. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair. He says he'll likely include Volk in parlays but won't place a serious wager.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by fourth-round TKO. He acknowledges Rodríguez's dangerous striking but doubts his finishing ability, calling his ground and pound pathetic. He believes Volkanovski's leg kicks and pressure will disrupt Rodríguez's flow, and that Volkanovski's top game in later rounds will be decisive. He notes that Holloway already handled Rodríguez on the ground.
Zane picks Volkanovski, citing his pressure wrestling and ability to exploit Yair's defensive flaws. He notes that Volkanovski's wrestling will be key to neutralizing Yair's kicking game and that Yair's stamina flags under grappling pressure. Zane expects Volkanovski to take Yair down and grind him out, possibly with a late TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 62 of 107 | 57% | 98 of 143 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 35 of 72 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 26 of 53 | 49% | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 36 of 54 | 66% | 66 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 17 of 34 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 62 of 107 | 57% | 36 of 76 | 18 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 47 of 87 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 11 |
| Josh Emmett | 22 of 52 | 42% | 17 of 44 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 26 of 53 | 49% | 14 of 39 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 7 |
| Josh Emmett | 12 of 26 | 46% | 10 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 9 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 36 of 54 | 66% | 22 of 37 | 11 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 26 of 43 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 |
| Josh Emmett | 10 of 26 | 38% | 7 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Josh Emmett, citing his power and wrestling base, though he notes Emmett doesn't use his wrestling often. He believes Emmett's power will be the difference, especially if he can stay close and grind. He acknowledges Yair's creativity and athleticism but thinks Emmett's power and pressure will win. He has a half-unit bet on Emmett at +135.
Big Brady thinks this is a close fight and picks Emmett for the upset. He notes Emmett's power and volume, and thinks Emmett will have the bigger moments. He expects a decision win for Emmett, similar to the Kattar fight, and says the line should be closer.
Cody picks Rodríguez but is not confident due to Rodríguez's inconsistency. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway with improved cardio and kicking volume, but Emmett has power and wrestling he doesn't use offensively. He thinks Emmett's path is a big shot, but Rodríguez's chin and volume should edge him out. He finds the -175 line unappealing and won't bet it.
Connor picks Rodríguez, citing his diverse kicking game and durability as key factors. He notes that Emmett's style is one-dimensional and that Rodríguez can attack from range with kicks, which Emmett struggles to check. Connor also mentions that Emmett's wrestling is not a reliable threat, as he rarely uses it. He believes Rodríguez's toughness and ability to absorb punches will allow him to outwork Emmett over three rounds.
Emmett's power punching and forward pressure will be too much for Rodríguez as the fight goes on. Rodríguez slows down in later rounds, as seen against Jeremy Stephens. Emmett has great cardio and defensive wrestling to keep it standing. He will close the distance and land big combinations, likely finishing in the fourth or fifth round. Rodríguez's unorthodox striking may be competitive early, but Emmett's durability and pressure will take over.
Paul slightly favors Rodríguez on volume, noting Emmett has a power advantage but Rodríguez has better durability. He expects a close competitive fight and thinks the line is accurate, so he won't bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Yair Rodríguez over Josh Emmett, citing Emmett's controversial wins and Rodríguez's improved performance against Ortega. He predicts a front kick KO in the first round, noting Rodríguez's chin and Emmett's tendency to get hit. He believes Rodríguez is on a higher level than Emmett.
Zane also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing his improved composure and durability. He notes that Emmett's power is a threat, but Rodríguez has never been knocked out and can take shots. Zane highlights that Rodríguez's kicks will be a major problem for Emmett, who has shown vulnerability to low kicks. He also points out that Emmett's wrestling is not a consistent factor, and Rodríguez's range management will frustrate him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 22 of 35 | 62% | 26 of 39 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 48 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 22 of 35 | 62% | 26 of 39 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 48 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 22 of 35 | 62% | 18 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 27 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 23 of 46 | 50% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 22 of 35 | 62% | 18 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 27 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 23 of 46 | 50% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Yair Rodríguez, citing his dynamic striking and unpredictability. He believes Ortega's poor takedown accuracy (24%) will prevent him from getting the fight to the ground, and that Rodríguez's striking will be too much. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway despite the loss, and that he won't have ring rust this time. He placed a small moneyline bet at +137.
Big Brady picks Brian Ortega to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ortega has improved his wrestling significantly, attempting many takedowns in recent fights against top competition like Holloway, Korean Zombie, and Volkanovski. He believes Ortega can take down Rodriguez, who has been taken down frequently in the past, and once on the ground, Ortega's submission game is elite. He acknowledges Rodriguez is the better striker but thinks Ortega's path to victory is through grappling.
Cody argues that Yair Rodríguez's ground game and wrestling are exploitable, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar and Jeremy Stephens where he was taken down easily. He notes that Brian Ortega has improved his wrestling, taking down elite fighters like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Cody believes Ortega will capitalize on Rodríguez's tendency to fall off-balance and secure a submission or dominant ground control.
Daniel Levi picks Yair Rodríguez to win as an underdog, emphasizing that Yair must keep the fight standing and avoid reckless spinning attacks that could lead to takedowns. He notes that Ortega is dangerous on the ground with submissions and has a history of comeback finishes, but believes Yair's discipline and striking can earn a decision. Levi mentions he will likely bet Yair at +155, viewing it as a dog-or-pass situation due to high variance.
Paul agrees with Cody that Ortega is the rightful favorite, citing Yair's overrated win over Korean Zombie where he was seconds from losing. He emphasizes that Ortega's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, and notes the line moving from -150 to -180. Paul suggests under 4.5 rounds and Ortega by submission as prop bets.
The MMA Guru picks Brian Ortega over Yair Rodríguez, citing Ortega's superior jiu-jitsu and ability to capitalize on Rodríguez's defensive habits. He notes that Rodríguez dips his head when pressured, which could lead to a guillotine choke. He also mentions Ortega's improved footwork and takedowns, and believes Rodríguez's power is overrated. He predicts a third-round submission win for Ortega.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 0 | 230 of 404 | 56% | 251 of 434 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 6:49 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 159 of 352 | 45% | 186 of 383 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 38 of 57 | 66% | 42 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 37 of 79 | 46% | 38 of 80 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 58 of 110 | 52% | 59 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 42 of 84 | 50% | 43 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 38 of 66 | 57% | 46 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 20 of 47 | 42% | 20 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 43 of 77 | 55% | 49 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:06 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 24 of 64 | 37% | 28 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 53 of 94 | 56% | 55 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 36 of 78 | 46% | 57 of 99 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 230 of 404 | 56% | 129 of 278 | 66 of 83 | 35 of 43 | 187 of 347 | 22 of 24 | 21 of 33 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 159 of 352 | 45% | 78 of 247 | 24 of 41 | 57 of 64 | 152 of 343 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 38 of 57 | 66% | 16 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 14 of 18 | 38 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 37 of 79 | 46% | 12 of 43 | 7 of 13 | 18 of 23 | 35 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 58 of 110 | 52% | 29 of 69 | 23 of 34 | 6 of 7 | 56 of 107 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 42 of 84 | 50% | 15 of 54 | 5 of 7 | 22 of 23 | 41 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 38 of 66 | 57% | 25 of 53 | 11 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 40 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 22 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 20 of 47 | 42% | 13 of 38 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 19 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 43 of 77 | 55% | 22 of 52 | 13 of 16 | 8 of 9 | 33 of 65 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 7 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 24 of 64 | 37% | 17 of 53 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 24 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 53 of 94 | 56% | 37 of 74 | 11 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 40 of 78 | 12 of 13 | 1 of 3 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 36 of 78 | 46% | 21 of 59 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 8 | 33 of 75 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Max Holloway to win inside the distance, having placed a one-unit bet at +110. He notes that Holloway's technical striking should cut through Rodriguez's theatrical style. Angelo thinks Holloway will close the distance and avoid the spin attacks, and that Rodriguez's two-year layoff is a factor.
Big Brady is confident in Max Holloway, highlighting his insane volume (7.26 significant strikes per minute) and legendary durability (never knocked down). He notes Rodriguez likely needs a KO to win, but Holloway's chin and cardio are elite. Brady expects Holloway to increase volume each round and predicts a fifth-round TKO as damage accumulates.
Cody believes Holloway is a god-tier operator who dominates non-elite opponents. He references Holloway's record 445 significant strikes against Kattar and argues that his losses are only to the best (Volkanovski, Poirier). He expects Holloway to win inside the distance, likely by TKO in the later rounds, and thinks the over 3.5 rounds is a solid play.
Daniel Levi picks Max Holloway, citing his record-breaking output against Calvin Kattar (447 significant strikes landed) and his status as the clear #2 featherweight. He acknowledges Yair Rodríguez's dynamic striking and finishing ability but believes Holloway's volume and pressure will overwhelm Rodríguez as he fatigues. Levi notes that Rodríguez is a live underdog but ultimately trusts Holloway's proven championship level.
Jacob picks Max Holloway to win inside the distance, placing a four-unit bet at +110. He believes there are levels to this and that Holloway will wear on Rodriguez with volume and finish him. Jacob thinks Holloway wants to make a statement as a big favorite.
Paul thinks Max Holloway's volume and durability are unmatched. He notes Holloway's record-breaking strike output and believes Rodríguez can't keep the pace. He's priced out at -720 but still picks Holloway to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.
The Guru picks Max Holloway by third-round TKO (doctor stoppage due to swelling). He expects Rodríguez to have a strong first round with leg kicks and flashy strikes, but Holloway's pressure, body work, and oblique kicks will break Rodríguez down. By the third round, Rodríguez's eye will be swollen shut, forcing a stoppage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 96 of 170 | 56% | 136 of 213 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:10 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 50 of 95 | 52% | 99 of 156 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 5:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 39 of 70 | 55% | 39 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 41 of 73 | 56% | 62 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 28 of 49 | 57% | 67 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 96 of 170 | 56% | 65 of 127 | 14 of 23 | 17 of 20 | 54 of 100 | 6 of 10 | 36 of 60 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 50 of 95 | 52% | 35 of 76 | 10 of 10 | 5 of 9 | 19 of 51 | 6 of 11 | 25 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 39 of 70 | 55% | 18 of 43 | 9 of 13 | 12 of 14 | 34 of 61 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 11 of 24 | 45% | 3 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 41 of 73 | 56% | 37 of 67 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 58 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 6 of 7 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 16 of 27 | 59% | 10 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 28 of 49 | 57% | 23 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 26 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 96 of 170 | 56% | 136 of 213 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:10 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 50 of 95 | 52% | 99 of 156 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 5:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 39 of 70 | 55% | 39 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 41 of 73 | 56% | 62 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 28 of 49 | 57% | 67 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 96 of 170 | 56% | 65 of 127 | 14 of 23 | 17 of 20 | 54 of 100 | 6 of 10 | 36 of 60 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 50 of 95 | 52% | 35 of 76 | 10 of 10 | 5 of 9 | 19 of 51 | 6 of 11 | 25 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 39 of 70 | 55% | 18 of 43 | 9 of 13 | 12 of 14 | 34 of 61 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 11 of 24 | 45% | 3 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 41 of 73 | 56% | 37 of 67 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 58 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 6 of 7 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 16 of 27 | 59% | 10 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 28 of 49 | 57% | 23 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 26 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
We are now treated to a rematch of the main event from UFC Mexico City in September, which tragically ended due to an eye poke within 15 seconds. Rodriguez (12-2, 1 NC; 7-1, 1 NC UFC) is ready to run it back with Stephens (28-16, 1 NC; 16-15, 1 NC UFC), and tensions are high. Trying to keep a lid on this featherweight tilt is referee Kevin MacDonald. There is no touch of the gloves of any kind, as Rodriguez leaps through the air with a flying head kick that clanks off the dome of Stephens. Stephens wings back some angry punches, and the two trade for a moment with bad intentions. Rodriguez clinches up and pushes Stephens against the cage, and Stephens throws a knee to the body, so Rodriguez retaliates with one of his own. The crowd has started to chant "U.S.A." to root on their home country fighter, and as they break apart, Rodriguez lands a powerful elbows over the top. "El Pantera" throws a wild spinning wheel kick that is nowhere near the mark, but he regains position and throws several heavy kicks on both legs. A few body kicks are finding their home on Stephens' midsection, and they are adding up quick. Stephens fires back with everything he has in the form of right hands, but Rodriguez keeps his distance with effective kicks. Another body kick digs in for Rodriguez, and Stephens has lowered his right hand to defend this specific attack. Stephens ducks down possibly for a takedown, but after a little clinch fighting, the two separate. Rodriguez chooses to crash forward into the clinch again, landing a knee up the middle to get there. As Rodriguez slaps a low kick, Stephens rips a right hand to the body of his opponent. The Mexican pulls off a jumping switch kick that catches Stephens flush, but Stephens walks through it. As Stephens presses forward, Rodriguez drops him with a left jab, but cannot take advantage of his grounded adversary as Stephens returns to his feet. Two more kicks get off from Rodriguez, as Stephens chases him around and motions an obscene gesture to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
Rodriguez opens up round two with a spinning kick, but Stephens is able to get up his guard on time. The Mexican fighter then whips a head kick up top, but it is the body kick that follows that does serious damage and makes Stephens buckle over. As Stephens stumbles backwards, Rodriguez swarms him with punches, throwing everything he has into his punches. Stephens defends himself by pursuing a takedown, but Rodriguez is relentless with punches. "Lil' Heathen" is able to survive the assault by going after low takedowns, but Rodriguez walks over it and lands long punches. On his back, Stephens eats wild hammerfists but begins to throw punches while on his back. Rodriguez latches on a brabo choke, and Stephens is trying to roll out of it and survives the submission attempt but is still in grave danger. With pure willpower, Stephens stands back up and unleashes the hardest punches he can possibly throw on Rodriguez. Rodriguez dodges and weaves out of the way of most of these shots, and as Rodriguez catches Stephens to the body again with a kick, Stephens wraps Rodriguez and tries to take him down. Rodriguez rolls through to try to get out of the position but ends up on his back, with Stephens on top raining down punches. El Pantera throws up his legs to search for a triangle choke, and Stephens is not out of the woods yet. In more of a leg scissor choke than a triangle, Stephens breaks the posture and grinds his elbow on his opponent's face as Rodriguez is warned for grabbing the cage. Rodriguez gradually stands up, and Stephens punishes him with a salvo of punches. The Mexican eats several more shots as he finally gets to his feet, and whips a body kick out that backs away Stephens as this crazy round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
Stephens comes out threatening with big shots, and as Rodriguez throws a kick out to back him off, he catches Stephens in the groin with a kick. Stephens calls the ref off so that he can charge at Rodriguez, and he slings looping shots that score on Rodriguez and get the crowd amped up. Rodriguez tries to keep his distance with leg kicks, and Stephens catches him on the end of a right hand that Rodriguez wears well. Suddenly, Stephens drops for a double leg takedown and gets Rodriguez down, and although Rodriguez gets back up, Stephens makes sure to score with several punches on his way up. The two separate, but not for long, as Stephens rushes in to secure another takedown and lands in Rodriguez' guard. Rodriguez attempts to utilize a rubber guard to get hold of Stephens' neck, but Stephens pushes the leg off and tries to get his ground-and-pound going. It is quite unfortunate that this fight is only three rounds instead of five, as Stephens sits on top in half guard while throwing punches from above. Stephens continues to mount offense on top in the form of numerous left hands, and the American then decides to drop down elbows that get heavier the more he throws. A huge left hand from Stephens scores as he stands up and dives down to land it, and after some more thudding strikes, the fight is now over. In a display of great sportsmanship, the two embrace, both thrilled with their performances.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Rodriguez)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Stephens (28-28 Draw)
The Official Result
Yair Rodriguez def. Jeremy Stephens via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Charles Rosa - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 97 of 159 | 61% | 102 of 166 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 51 of 167 | 30% | 54 of 170 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 | 0 | 0:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 39 of 62 | 62% | 43 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 25 of 63 | 39% | 25 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 31 of 51 | 60% | 31 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 12 of 42 | 28% | 12 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 28 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 14 of 62 | 22% | 17 of 65 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood | 97 of 159 | 61% | 62 of 111 | 4 of 13 | 31 of 35 | 87 of 144 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 8 |
| Charles Rosa | 51 of 167 | 30% | 21 of 120 | 18 of 29 | 12 of 18 | 43 of 156 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Wood | 39 of 62 | 62% | 27 of 44 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 11 | 38 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Rosa | 25 of 63 | 39% | 9 of 43 | 10 of 13 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 59 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Nathaniel Wood | 31 of 51 | 60% | 18 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 14 | 26 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Charles Rosa | 12 of 42 | 28% | 6 of 29 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 8 | 11 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nathaniel Wood | 27 of 46 | 58% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 2 | 10 of 10 | 23 of 40 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
| Charles Rosa | 14 of 62 | 22% | 6 of 48 | 6 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 56 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Wood's 75% takedown defense and high volume of strikes, while Charles Rosa is a BJJ specialist who struggles when taken down. He mentions the Casey Kenny loss as a concern but still believes Wood gets it done and will be a parlay piece.
Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He notes Wood is moving up in weight but has a massive speed and volume advantage on the feet. Rosa's path to victory is a submission off his back, but Wood has good takedown defense. Rosa is tough to finish, so Wood wins a decision.
Cody picks Nathaniel Wood, noting he can win wherever the fight goes. He highlights Wood's superior boxing, volume, and footwork. Cody thinks Rosa's only chance is a fluke submission, but Wood's takedown defense and submission defense are solid. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
Daniel Levi picks Nathaniel Wood, citing a massive speed advantage and excellent leg kicks. He notes that Charles Rosa is slow, hittable, and easy to take down. Levi warns that Wood should avoid getting caught in a submission or cut, but overall sees this as a good introductory fight for Wood at featherweight.
Wood is the better striker and should touch Rosa up from the outside. Rosa is durable and has good submission defense, but Wood can win a decision. The move up to 145 is a concern, but Rosa isn't a grappler who will exploit the size gap. Wood glides to a decision.
Paul picks Nathaniel Wood, stating he should cruise. He notes Rosa flops to his back and Wood can box him up. Paul thinks Wood's volume and striking are superior. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Nathaniel Wood to win by TKO in the second round. He praises Wood's takedown defense, leg kicks, and speed. Charles Rosa is 35 and hasn't looked good recently. Wood will chop at the legs, stuff takedowns, and eventually brutalize Rosa for a TKO finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 58 of 99 | 58% | 88 of 141 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 3 | 2 | 7:39 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 46 of 107 | 42% | 71 of 132 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 2:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 38 of 70 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 34 of 73 | 46% | 39 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 29 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 3:34 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 21 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 58 of 99 | 58% | 46 of 85 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 49 of 87 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 7 |
| Charles Rosa | 46 of 107 | 42% | 21 of 76 | 5 of 10 | 20 of 21 | 42 of 99 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 35 of 67 | 52% | 26 of 56 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 60 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Rosa | 34 of 73 | 46% | 14 of 49 | 5 of 9 | 15 of 15 | 34 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 16 of 23 | 69% | 14 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Charles Rosa | 9 of 24 | 37% | 4 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Rosa | 3 of 10 | 30% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 |
Big Brady questions T.J. Brown's fight IQ, recalling his poor game plan against Danny Chavez. However, he notes Brown's striking improvements and training at Glory MMA with Bryce Mitchell. He thinks Brown can win if he mixes in takedowns against Benitez's 56% takedown defense, but he cannot trust Brown enough to bet him. He picks Brown as a dog pick but is not confident.
Cody leans toward Brown, citing the blueprint of taking Rosa down and holding him there. He notes Brown's wrestling should be effective. However, he is wary of Brown's low fight IQ and the short notice change. He calls -280 too risky for parlays.
Daniel Levi picks T.J. Brown, though he is uncomfortable laying -250. He notes that Brown is better than he has shown, but his chin is questionable and he gets dropped often. However, Levi believes Brown will outwork Charles Rosa, who is on short notice and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Brown's physicality and wrestling will be key, and that Rosa's best days are behind him. Levi expects Brown to win, possibly by finish.
The host picks Gabriel Benitez, praising his southpaw striking, body kicks, and leg kicks. He expects Benitez to use his technical striking to outwork T.J. Brown, who is more chaotic and less technical. The host notes Brown's power and BJJ but believes Benitez's cardio and striking accuracy will secure a decision. He compares the matchup to Brown's loss to Danny Chavez, where leg kicks were effective.
Paul leans toward Rosa as a dog, citing his win-loss streak pattern and submission threat. He notes Rosa's takedown defense is poor but Brown's fight IQ is low. He expects Rosa might catch Brown in a submission. He advises waiting for weigh-ins and possibly better odds.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa (Gabriel Benitez) to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Benitez has devastating kicks, especially calf kicks, which will slow Brown down early. Brown has shown problems with kicks in the past (e.g., against Danny Chavez). He expects Benitez to chop at the legs and body, then clip Brown with a big shot when Brown tries to make something happen. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Brown getting dropped with no base.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 34 of 87 | 39% | 116 of 181 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 1:18 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 41 of 87 | 47% | 53 of 101 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 2 | 3 | 10:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 22 of 61 | 36% | 30 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 24 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 27 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 26 of 45 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 4:05 | |
| 3 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 59 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:12 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 2 | 3:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 34 of 87 | 39% | 17 of 66 | 4 of 8 | 13 of 13 | 26 of 76 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 3 |
| Charles Rosa | 41 of 87 | 47% | 33 of 77 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 22 of 61 | 36% | 8 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 18 of 55 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Rosa | 19 of 47 | 40% | 15 of 42 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 7 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Rosa | 19 of 37 | 51% | 15 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 17 | |
| 3 | Damon Jackson | 4 of 4 | 100% | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Charles Rosa | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Damon Jackson despite stats favoring Charles Rosa. He likes Jackson's will, determination, and willingness to scrap. He thinks Jackson's fight IQ and grappling can survive Rosa's jiu-jitsu, and his striking could catch Rosa. He also placed a bet on Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action at plus 125 as a Hail Mary submission play.
Big Brady picks Damon Jackson, citing Charles Rosa's poor takedown defense and inability to get up. He references Rosa's fights against Bryce Mitchell and Derrick Minor, where they controlled him with takedowns. Brady believes Jackson can implement a similar game plan, taking Rosa down and controlling him for a decision. He notes he would not bet the line at -180/-190, but thinks Jackson can win comfortably via decision.
Cody picks the underdog Rosa, arguing that Jackson's striking is not elite and Rosa's BJJ and counter-striking could be effective. He notes Rosa's durability and ability to win close fights. He believes the line is too wide and Rosa has a live path to victory via decision or submission.
Daniel Levi leans toward Charles Rosa as a dog because he views the fight as a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Rosa's ability to survive submissions and make fights close, but acknowledges his tendency to spend too much time on his back. He expects a close, possibly controversial split decision win for Rosa.
Jacob leans towards Damon Jackson but is intrigued by Charles Rosa as an underdog at plus 145. He thinks Rosa's grappling is next-level and could cause problems. He expects a close fight and sees Rosa as an interesting underdog play. He would pick Jackson but might bet Rosa.
The host picks Damon Jackson, citing his superior grappling and pressure. He notes Jackson's excellent cardio and ability to control opponents, while Rosa has good submission defense but may be outgrappled. He predicts a decision win for Jackson, which would be only the second decision of Jackson's career, due to Rosa's durability.
Paul picks Jackson, citing his better striking and pressure. He notes Rosa's tendency to flop to his back and lack of a striking game plan. He believes Jackson can win on the feet and avoid Rosa's submission threats, though he admits it's not a high-confidence pick.
The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson to win by unanimous decision. He trusts Jackson's defensive grappling and guillotine threats to keep the fight standing, where Jackson has a significant advantage in striking and reach. He dismisses Rosa's striking as poor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 51 of 182 | 28% | 114 of 258 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 3:37 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 44 of 92 | 47% | 51 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 3 | 2:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 35 of 119 | 29% | 36 of 121 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 57 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:21 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 1:16 | |
| 3 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 13 of 48 | 27% | 21 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:49 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 22 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 51 of 182 | 28% | 33 of 156 | 8 of 15 | 10 of 11 | 47 of 173 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 |
| Justin Jaynes | 44 of 92 | 47% | 32 of 79 | 9 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 42 of 89 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 35 of 119 | 29% | 22 of 101 | 5 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 34 of 116 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Justin Jaynes | 19 of 41 | 46% | 13 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Rosa | 3 of 15 | 20% | 1 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Justin Jaynes | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Charles Rosa | 13 of 48 | 27% | 10 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Justin Jaynes | 19 of 39 | 48% | 14 of 34 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Charles Rosa, believing Rosa's jiu-jitsu is fantastic and that he can avoid Jaynes's early storm and take over in later rounds. He notes that Jaynes is not Derrick Minner and that styles make fights. However, he admits he is not confident enough to place a bet on it.
Big Brady picks Charles Rosa to win by third round submission, citing Jaynes's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Rosa's durability (only one KO loss) and well-rounded skills, while Jaynes is a one-round fighter with 33% takedown defense. He expects Rosa to weather the early storm and take over as Jaynes gasses.
Cody picks Rosa, noting that Jaynes has zero takedown accuracy and is a brawler who fades. Rosa's takedown defense is a liability, but Jaynes doesn't wrestle. Rosa's striking and cardio should allow him to outwork Jaynes. Cody thinks Rosa is untrustworthy but the style matchup favors him. He notes Rosa is coming off a loss, which historically makes him more reliable.
Jacob picks Charles Rosa by submission or decision, noting that Rosa always gets submissions or loses decisions. He thinks Jaynes will try to wrestle, which will be a mistake, and Rosa will find a submission. Jacob is not confident enough to put Rosa in his lineup at 8600 but believes Rosa wins.
Rosa is my lock of the night. Jaynes is not UFC caliber and has no defense. Rosa has durability, striking technique, and can take Jaynes down. He should invest in body shots early to slow Jaynes down, then find a submission in the second round. Rosa's only kryptonite is being ground out, but Jaynes can't do that. Rosa should be a much bigger favorite.
Paul picks Rosa but lost trust after his loss to Minor. He notes Rosa's pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rosa should stick to grappling and avoid brawling. He acknowledges Jaynes' power but thinks Rosa's experience and durability will carry him.
The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes as a big upset, citing his ferocity and early-round finishing ability. He criticizes Charles Rosa's striking defense and believes Jaynes will expose those holes, predicting a first-round KO. He notes Rosa's decline after his Shane Burgos fight and considers Jaynes the fresher fighter at 31.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrick Minner | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 40 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Rosa | 1 | 45 of 60 | 75% | 96 of 117 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 | 0 | 12:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darrick Minner | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 23 of 35 | 65% | 49 of 66 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 3:03 | |
| 2 | Darrick Minner | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Rosa | 1 | 15 of 16 | 93% | 32 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:46 | |
| 3 | Darrick Minner | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 20 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 15 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrick Minner | 15 of 25 | 60% | 9 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Charles Rosa | 45 of 60 | 75% | 35 of 49 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 19 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darrick Minner | 6 of 11 | 54% | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Rosa | 23 of 35 | 65% | 18 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 17 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 12 | |
| 2 | Darrick Minner | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Rosa | 15 of 16 | 93% | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 8 | |
| 3 | Darrick Minner | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Charles Rosa | 7 of 9 | 77% | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Daniel Levi respects Darrick Minner's 20 first-round submissions and his ability to finish quickly, but notes Charles Rosa has never been submitted and survived deep submission attempts against Yair Rodriguez and Bryce Mitchell. Levi thinks if Minner doesn't get the finish in the first round, Rosa's work rate and kicks will overwhelm Minner in the later rounds. He is hesitant to lay the -200 chalk on Rosa but sees more paths to victory for him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 69 of 173 | 39% | 69 of 173 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 0 | 53 of 135 | 39% | 53 of 135 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 20 of 56 | 35% | 20 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 0 | 17 of 39 | 43% | 17 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 27 of 67 | 40% | 27 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 0 | 22 of 59 | 37% | 22 of 59 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 69 of 173 | 39% | 33 of 119 | 15 of 26 | 21 of 28 | 69 of 173 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 53 of 135 | 39% | 34 of 109 | 17 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 50 of 130 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 20 of 56 | 35% | 5 of 34 | 5 of 9 | 10 of 13 | 20 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 14 of 37 | 37% | 10 of 29 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Rosa | 22 of 50 | 44% | 10 of 30 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 9 | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 17 of 39 | 43% | 11 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 17 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Charles Rosa | 27 of 67 | 40% | 18 of 55 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 27 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 22 of 59 | 37% | 13 of 49 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa, noting that he shouldn't be judged by his loss to Bryce Mitchell. He highlights Rosa's jiu-jitsu and striking, recalling that Rosa out-struck Shane Burgos in their fight. He believes Rosa will finish Aguilar by head kick, as Aguilar is coming off a KO loss and a short turnaround.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 40 of 49 | 81% | 60 of 74 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 5 | 0 | 12:51 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 12 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 17 of 21 | 80% | 28 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:37 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 20 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:52 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell | 40 of 49 | 81% | 27 of 36 | 13 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 40 of 46 |
| Charles Rosa | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Mitchell | 11 of 13 | 84% | 8 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 12 |
| Charles Rosa | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Bryce Mitchell | 17 of 21 | 80% | 12 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 20 |
| Charles Rosa | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Bryce Mitchell | 12 of 15 | 80% | 7 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 14 |
| Charles Rosa | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Dropping down to the featherweight division, we are treated to a matchup between two solid prospects in American Top Team’s Rosa (12-3, 3-3 UFC) and the undefeated Mitchell (12-0, 3-0 UFC). Our referee for this bout is Keith Peterson, and uncharacteristically he is allowing some nonsense by not wearing a mask. The two elect not to touch gloves to kick off their match, and Mitchell immediately stalks Rosa down against the fence. Rosa tries to keep away and throw kicks, but Mitchell is unconcerned and hits a quick single leg takedown. Mitchell ties up the legs to keep Rosa grounded, and Mitchell circles around to take the back. Rosa spins out but is immediately is in the danger zone. Mitchell sets up an arm-triangle choke, and Rosa’s head is changing colors rapidly and thinks about tapping. Rosa continues to flail and almost taps again, but somehow manages to pull his head free. Mitchell is on him like glue, taking the back before hunting for an arm-triangle choke again. Rosa throws his legs up to hunt for an inverted triangle choke, and Mitchell is unconcerned as he spins free. The ensuing exchange miraculously leads to Mitchell setting up a twister, and the commentary booth is losing it. Rosa struggles, turns and tries to survive, and manages to get out for a moment, only to give it up again. In an impressive showing of submission defense, Rosa pulls his body out but surrenders another arm-triangle choke. This time, it’s tight, and Mitchell squeezes with all he has. Rosa’s head turns red quickly once more, but he powers free and remains on his back. Mitchell tries to set up one last submission, but the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Round 2
Rosa opens the round with a few head kicks, and keep Mitchell at bay for a few seconds. “Thug Nasty” gathers his thoughts and shoots in for a takedown, and immediately passes guard and takes three-quarter mount. Rosa is unable to get any offense going as Mitchell nullifies him, and gives up mount as Mitchell tries to set up another arm-triangle. While Mitchell continues to style on Rosa, the commentary booth ponders the true location of Fight Island -- none of them know. Mitchell drops down a few heavy elbows and punches on top, and Rosa uses that aggression against his opponent to pull for a leglock. Mitchell practically ignores it, before stepping back to mount. He steps over to get an arm-triangle choke, and Rosa stays calm and defends it well enough before Mitchell bails to return to mount. Rosa turns over, and Mitchell thinks about taking his back before setting up another twister. This is unquestionably the record for the most twister attempts in a UFC fight before, and this time it’s tight as a drum. Unfortunately for Mitchell, the horn sounds before he can get the tap, but this is all one-way traffic from “Thug Nasty.”
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Round 3
Within 15 seconds, Mitchell dives into a takedown and incredibly sets up another twister. Rosa locks his arm up to hold on tight, but Mitchell pulls on the right arm of Rosa to twist him the other direction. Rosa pushes with all his might to get free, and while he gets out of the bad situation, he is still grounded. “Boston Strong” tries to set up a guillotine off his back, and Mitchell thinks about going after a Von Preux choke until thinking about the arm-triangle choke again. The unbeaten fighter chains submission together one after the other, and props to Rosa for surviving, but it is total domination. Rosa gives up his back, defends a choke and rolls back over. Ever vigilant, Mitchell returns to mount before hunting for the arm-triangle once more. Rosa is cursing out Mitchell for “laying on me” but is not showing the defense to get out of harm’s way. Mitchell takes a high mount and thinks about blasting him with a few shots on top, but Rosa rolls out just in time. Mitchell hops out, turns around and dives back in to secure top position. Mitchell rolls through a crucifix, hammers down a few elbows, takes top position with Rosa’s feet trying to kick off the cage. He successfully does so with seconds to spare, but he is spent -- Mitchell crashes forward to strike him and clinch up, but the round, and fight, is over.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-24 Mitchell)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)
The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Charles Rosa via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-25, 30-24)
Big Brady picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his youth, size, and overall superiority on the ground and feet. He downplays Rosa's submission win over Manny Bermudez, calling Bermudez a fraud. He thinks the line at minus 175 is a bit wide and sees little value but still expects Mitchell to win.
Daniel Levi slightly leans towards Bryce Mitchell, citing his athleticism and youth. He notes that Mitchell has holes in his game and may fatigue, but Rosa is a finished product who isn't getting better. Levi thinks Mitchell can get the job done by being younger and fresher, possibly with a late finish.
Matt initially considered Mitchell as a lock but after tape review, he favors Rosa as a live dog. He highlights Rosa's leg kicks, offensive guard, and ability to keep the fight standing, while questioning Mitchell's striking development and the impact of training camps during the pandemic. He picks Rosa by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manny Bermudez | 0 | 27 of 38 | 71% | 37 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manny Bermudez | 0 | 27 of 38 | 71% | 37 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manny Bermudez | 27 of 38 | 71% | 25 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 32 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manny Bermudez | 27 of 38 | 71% | 25 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 32 |
Pitbull nearly snapped an arm bar last min. Yair was dirty in certain spots. The headkick on Pit should have been the KO, no idea how Pit eats it.