UFC 188: Velasquez vs. Werdum · Jun 13, 2015 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 188: Velasquez vs. Werdum Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 11"
Reach 71"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 9"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Yair Rodríguez
4.65 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.78 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.71 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
59.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Charles Rosa
3.08 SLpM
36.0% Str. Acc.
3.86 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
1.67 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
38.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Yair Rodríguez - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 1 70 of 122 57% 97 of 157 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
Patrício Pitbull 0 17 of 50 34% 23 of 60 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 11 of 21 52% 26 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patrício Pitbull 0 4 of 10 40% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 21 of 45 46% 25 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
Patrício Pitbull 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:28
3 Yair Rodríguez 1 38 of 56 67% 46 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Patrício Pitbull 0 5 of 14 35% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 70 of 122 57% 38 of 82 18 of 23 14 of 17 43 of 89 2 of 2 25 of 31
Patrício Pitbull 17 of 50 34% 8 of 38 2 of 4 7 of 8 17 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 11 of 21 52% 3 of 10 4 of 5 4 of 6 10 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patrício Pitbull 4 of 10 40% 0 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 4 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Yair Rodríguez 21 of 45 46% 8 of 28 6 of 9 7 of 8 20 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patrício Pitbull 8 of 26 30% 5 of 21 1 of 2 2 of 3 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yair Rodríguez 38 of 56 67% 27 of 44 8 of 9 3 of 3 13 of 25 0 of 0 25 of 31
Patrício Pitbull 5 of 14 35% 3 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Connor picks Rodríguez, echoing Zane's reasoning about Pitbull's vulnerability to aggressive strikers. He notes that Pitbull has struggled against fighters who pressure him early and that Rodríguez's length and kicking game pose unique problems. Connor acknowledges Pitbull's experience and ability to adjust between fights but believes Rodríguez's style is a bad matchup for the current version of Pitbull.

"I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez. I think I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez too."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Yair Rodríguez

Daniel Levi states that Yair Rodríguez schooled Patrício Pitbull, being much faster and more dynamic, and was a couple steps ahead all night. He notes that Pitbull looked shopworn and didn't shine in the big moment.

"Yaya Rodriguez just schooled Patricio Pitu and you know on tape it was there but sometimes you hold out hope that these legends are going to have you know they're going to shine bright in a big moment like that …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Lucrative James picks Patrício Pitbull to win, citing his experience, grappling advantage, and power. He believes Pitbull's wrestling and top control will be key, and he expects him to submit or ground-and-pound Rodríguez. He acknowledges Rodríguez's flashy kicks and danger but thinks Pitbull's cerebral style and veteran savvy will prevail. He notes that Pitbull is 37 and may be past his prime, but he still sees him as the better fighter overall. He also thinks the UFC is setting Pitbull up for a win to inject new blood into the division.

He predicts Pitbull wins inside the distance, possibly via submission or ground and pound.
"I'm predicting Patricio Pitbull to get the win on Yay Rodriguez. And I'm actually predicting him to get the win inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Zane picks Rodríguez, citing Pitbull's history of losing to aggressive, high-output fighters who take the initiative early. He notes that Pitbull has become a patient counter-puncher, which plays into Rodríguez's strengths as a long-range striker with dynamic kicks. Zane points to Pitbull's recent loss to Chihiro Suzuki as evidence that he can be overwhelmed by a powerful, wild striker. He acknowledges Pitbull's grappling and experience but believes Rodríguez's reach and willingness to attack from distance will be decisive.

"I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez. I think I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez too."
LOSS vs Brian Ortega
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 0:58 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brian Ortega 1 55 of 115 47% 64 of 135 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:32
Yair Rodríguez 0 28 of 73 38% 47 of 104 3 of 6 50% 1 0 5:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brian Ortega 1 45 of 91 49% 50 of 102 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:32
Yair Rodríguez 0 6 of 28 21% 7 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:42
2 Brian Ortega 0 9 of 17 52% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yair Rodríguez 0 22 of 44 50% 39 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:55
3 Brian Ortega 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yair Rodríguez 0 0 of 1 0% 1 of 4 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brian Ortega 55 of 115 47% 36 of 91 11 of 15 8 of 9 34 of 86 9 of 12 12 of 17
Yair Rodríguez 28 of 73 38% 26 of 69 2 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 50 2 of 3 13 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brian Ortega 45 of 91 49% 28 of 69 10 of 14 7 of 8 24 of 62 9 of 12 12 of 17
Yair Rodríguez 6 of 28 21% 5 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brian Ortega 9 of 17 52% 7 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yair Rodríguez 22 of 44 50% 21 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 21 2 of 3 13 of 20
3 Brian Ortega 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yair Rodríguez 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Angelo picks Ortega with low confidence, citing the first fight where Ortega was winning before his shoulder injury. He notes the elevation and crowd in Mexico could favor Rodriguez, but trusts his brain over his gut. He worries about Ortega's long layoff but believes he can squeak out a win.

"I think Brian Orga can win this fight I am split though my brain and my gut are saying two different things"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Big Brady picks Yair Rodríguez to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Rodríguez has been more active and looked impressive against Josh Emmett, while Ortega has had a long layoff. He believes Rodríguez has the advantage on the feet with his kicks and power, and that Ortega is hittable. He doubts Ortega's wrestling will be effective, as Rodríguez stuffed takedowns in their first fight. He expects Rodríguez to dominate at range and eventually finish Ortega.

Rodríguez wins by KO in round 3
"I got to go Yer here um I think he's going to be able to stuff a lot of these takedowns Ortega's never really had the best wrestling and on the feed I just kind of think it's one-way traffic …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Cody picks Ortega, noting that in their first fight Ortega was winning before the shoulder injury. He believes Ortega's skills haven't digressed, his jiu-jitsu is second to none, and his wrestling is good enough to take down Rodriguez. He also mentions Ortega's ability to come back better after layoffs, as he did after the Holloway loss. He considers the plus 130 price good value.

"I'll take the dog Bri Orga nice"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

The host recalls the first fight where Rodríguez kept Ortega at bay with striking and Ortega's only success was a clinch takedown that led to an injury. He believes Rodríguez needs to keep the fight standing, and even if it goes to the ground, Rodríguez has worked on his jiu-jitsu to defend and get back to his feet. He predicts Rodríguez will finish Ortega by the third round.

Finish by third round
"Rodriguez really needs to keep this fight in the Striking real otherwise Ortega can utilize the one advantage he normally holds in his matchup and that's what his submission game but it's clear Rodriguez has been working on his Jiu-Jitsu …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Paul is leaning towards Ortega but is hesitant due to the year-and-a-half layoff, Ortega's age (33), and his recent record (lost last two, hasn't finished in six years). However, he acknowledges Ortega matched up well in the first fight and has the skills to win. He says if he had a gun to his head he'd pick Ortega, but it's a wild card pick.

"yeah like want to pick Ortega think I might pick Ortega if I got a gun to my head take a couple underdogs on this card Ortega certainly is one that is looking appealing"
TKO (punches) R3 4:19 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkanovski 0 66 of 97 68% 149 of 198 7 of 12 58% 0 0 7:13
Yair Rodríguez 0 40 of 80 50% 57 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkanovski 0 11 of 15 73% 49 of 58 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:22
Yair Rodríguez 0 5 of 9 55% 10 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkanovski 0 18 of 25 72% 55 of 75 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:33
Yair Rodríguez 0 12 of 19 63% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Volkanovski 0 37 of 57 64% 45 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Yair Rodríguez 0 23 of 52 44% 23 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkanovski 66 of 97 68% 48 of 69 4 of 5 14 of 23 25 of 45 4 of 6 37 of 46
Yair Rodríguez 40 of 80 50% 13 of 49 11 of 14 16 of 17 38 of 77 0 of 0 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkanovski 11 of 15 73% 9 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 11
Yair Rodríguez 5 of 9 55% 1 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Alexander Volkanovski 18 of 25 72% 15 of 19 1 of 1 2 of 5 4 of 10 1 of 1 13 of 14
Yair Rodríguez 12 of 19 63% 4 of 10 5 of 6 3 of 3 11 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Alexander Volkanovski 37 of 57 64% 24 of 39 3 of 4 10 of 14 19 of 31 3 of 5 15 of 21
Yair Rodríguez 23 of 52 44% 8 of 35 5 of 7 10 of 10 23 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Angelo is confident in Volkanovski, calling the -400 odds appropriate. He highlights Volkanovski's speed, kick usage, takedowns, and strength, and notes his performance against Islam Makhachev. He thinks Volkanovski will control the pace, mix in takedowns, and keep Rodríguez on the back foot, preventing his wild striking. He acknowledges Rodríguez's danger but believes Volkanovski is on another level.

"Alex is the pick he's sitting at like minus 400 and that feels very appropriate to me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by late stoppage (fourth round). He notes that Volkanovski is the better striker with more volume and better defense, and he has a huge advantage in wrestling and ground and pound. He points out that Rodríguez has poor takedown defense and no answers off his back, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens, Max Holloway, and Josh Emmett. He believes Volkanovski will take Rodríguez down, beat him up, and get a doctor stoppage or TKO in the later rounds.

fourth round stoppage (TKO/doctor stoppage)
"give me Alexander volkanovski and still I think he finishes Yaya Rodriguez late in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Cody picks Volkanovski to retain, citing his durability, cardio, and submission defense. He notes Yair's danger with unorthodox strikes but believes Volk's constant pressure and takedowns will be decisive. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair's style. He leans toward Volk by decision but wouldn't be surprised by a stoppage.

Volkanovski by decision (+120), inside distance (+160), over rounds, significant strikes over 135.5, takedowns over 3
"I gotta go with the King Alexander volkonowski to retain"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Connor picks Volkanovski, emphasizing his championship quality and preparation. He acknowledges Yair's danger, especially his kicking game and durability, but believes Volkanovski's pressure and wrestling will be decisive. Connor notes that Volkanovski's ability to take Yair down and control him on the ground is the path to victory.

"You pretty much have to pick Volkanovski. Yeah, because he's Volkanovski."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Daniel Levi picks Volkanovski, citing his elite fainting game, ability to out-jab taller opponents, and superior boxing in close range. He notes Volkanovski's takedown of Islam Makhachev as evidence of his wrestling prowess, which he believes will be a key advantage against Yair's suspect takedown defense. Levi acknowledges Yair's unique kicking arsenal and the head-kick KO history of Volkanovski, but expects Volkanovski's pressure and cardio to take over as the fight progresses. He also mentions that Yair's energy-intensive style may lead to a slowdown in later rounds.

"I'm picking Volk."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Alexander Volkanovski

James picks Volkanovski to win by ground-and-pound, likely in rounds 3 or 4. He believes Volkanovski's superior fight IQ and grappling advantage will be decisive. He notes Rodríguez has clear deficiencies on the ground and Volkanovski has heavy ground-and-pound. He also mentions the weight cut factor for Volkanovski moving back down, but still favors him. He does not advocate betting the moneyline at -400, but likes the inside distance prop.

Volkanovski wins inside the distance; fight doesn't go to decision
"official prediction vulcanovski via Grand and pound round four round three"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is the more polished and disciplined fighter with excellent striking defense, movement, and wrestling. Rodriguez has flashy striking and an active guard, but has been broken before. Volkanovski will close distance, land takedowns, and control the fight, likely winning by decision. He is a safe parlay piece.

parlay
"I think just taking his chalky spot throwing it into a parlay is not a bad way to go about it."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Paul agrees with Cody, stating it's tough to go against Volk at 145. He highlights Volk's ability to win on volume or by mixing in wrestling, and his proven submission defense. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair. He says he'll likely include Volk in parlays but won't place a serious wager.

Volkanovski by decision (+120), inside distance (+160), over rounds, significant strikes over 135.5, takedowns over 3
"could not back Volk I mean I don't know if I'm gonna back him with my pocket but the guy's just good everywhere"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by fourth-round TKO. He acknowledges Rodríguez's dangerous striking but doubts his finishing ability, calling his ground and pound pathetic. He believes Volkanovski's leg kicks and pressure will disrupt Rodríguez's flow, and that Volkanovski's top game in later rounds will be decisive. He notes that Holloway already handled Rodríguez on the ground.

wins by TKO in the fourth round
"I'm gonna go with vulcanov skin round four TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Zane picks Volkanovski, citing his pressure wrestling and ability to exploit Yair's defensive flaws. He notes that Volkanovski's wrestling will be key to neutralizing Yair's kicking game and that Yair's stamina flags under grappling pressure. Zane expects Volkanovski to take Yair down and grind him out, possibly with a late TKO.

Volkanovski by TKO in round 4 or later at 35%
"I think assuming Volkanovski pressures again, you have to pick him."
WIN vs Josh Emmett
Submission (triangle choke) R2 4:19 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 62 of 107 57% 98 of 143 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 22 of 52 42% 35 of 72 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 26 of 53 49% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 12 of 26 46% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 36 of 54 66% 66 of 84 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 10 of 26 38% 17 of 34 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 62 of 107 57% 36 of 76 18 of 22 8 of 9 47 of 87 7 of 9 8 of 11
Josh Emmett 22 of 52 42% 17 of 44 4 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 40 1 of 2 8 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 26 of 53 49% 14 of 39 7 of 9 5 of 5 21 of 44 1 of 2 4 of 7
Josh Emmett 12 of 26 46% 10 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 1 of 2 7 of 9
2 Yair Rodríguez 36 of 54 66% 22 of 37 11 of 13 3 of 4 26 of 43 6 of 7 4 of 4
Josh Emmett 10 of 26 38% 7 of 20 2 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Angelo picks Josh Emmett, citing his power and wrestling base, though he notes Emmett doesn't use his wrestling often. He believes Emmett's power will be the difference, especially if he can stay close and grind. He acknowledges Yair's creativity and athleticism but thinks Emmett's power and pressure will win. He has a half-unit bet on Emmett at +135.

"Emmett's the pick and I do have a half a unit on him at plus 135"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady thinks this is a close fight and picks Emmett for the upset. He notes Emmett's power and volume, and thinks Emmett will have the bigger moments. He expects a decision win for Emmett, similar to the Kattar fight, and says the line should be closer.

"I'm gonna pick Josh Emmett here for the upset win I'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Cody picks Rodríguez but is not confident due to Rodríguez's inconsistency. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway with improved cardio and kicking volume, but Emmett has power and wrestling he doesn't use offensively. He thinks Emmett's path is a big shot, but Rodríguez's chin and volume should edge him out. He finds the -175 line unappealing and won't bet it.

"I just think yeah Rodriguez pulls out with it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Connor picks Rodríguez, citing his diverse kicking game and durability as key factors. He notes that Emmett's style is one-dimensional and that Rodríguez can attack from range with kicks, which Emmett struggles to check. Connor also mentions that Emmett's wrestling is not a reliable threat, as he rarely uses it. He believes Rodríguez's toughness and ability to absorb punches will allow him to outwork Emmett over three rounds.

"I also favor yahir. I this was one that kind of threw me because I looked at it and i'm like oh josh emmett's a better fighter than yahir rodriguez... This is not a good fight for josh emmett."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Emmett's power punching and forward pressure will be too much for Rodríguez as the fight goes on. Rodríguez slows down in later rounds, as seen against Jeremy Stephens. Emmett has great cardio and defensive wrestling to keep it standing. He will close the distance and land big combinations, likely finishing in the fourth or fifth round. Rodríguez's unorthodox striking may be competitive early, but Emmett's durability and pressure will take over.

"I think Josh Sherman will get closer and closer with those big punches and it's going to continue to demoralize Yaya Rodriguez and I think just slowly but surely Josh Yemen is going to get closer and closer to eventually …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Paul slightly favors Rodríguez on volume, noting Emmett has a power advantage but Rodríguez has better durability. He expects a close competitive fight and thinks the line is accurate, so he won't bet it.

"I'll ever so slightly think that yair Rodriguez edges them out on volume but at minus 160 I mean I think that the books have this one pretty correct"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

The MMA Guru picks Yair Rodríguez over Josh Emmett, citing Emmett's controversial wins and Rodríguez's improved performance against Ortega. He predicts a front kick KO in the first round, noting Rodríguez's chin and Emmett's tendency to get hit. He believes Rodríguez is on a higher level than Emmett.

first round KO via front kick
"I'm gonna go Yaya Rodriguez winning over Josh Emmett"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Zane also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing his improved composure and durability. He notes that Emmett's power is a threat, but Rodríguez has never been knocked out and can take shots. Zane highlights that Rodríguez's kicks will be a major problem for Emmett, who has shown vulnerability to low kicks. He also points out that Emmett's wrestling is not a consistent factor, and Rodríguez's range management will frustrate him.

"I also favor yahir. I this was one that kind of threw me because I looked at it and i'm like oh josh emmett's a better fighter than yahir rodriguez... This is not a good fight for josh emmett."
WIN vs Brian Ortega
TKO (shoulder injury) R1 4:11 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 22 of 35 62% 26 of 39 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:24
Brian Ortega 0 23 of 46 50% 48 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 22 of 35 62% 26 of 39 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:24
Brian Ortega 0 23 of 46 50% 48 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 22 of 35 62% 18 of 30 3 of 3 1 of 2 15 of 27 7 of 8 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 23 of 46 50% 18 of 41 0 of 0 5 of 5 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 22 of 35 62% 18 of 30 3 of 3 1 of 2 15 of 27 7 of 8 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 23 of 46 50% 18 of 41 0 of 0 5 of 5 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Angelo picks Yair Rodríguez, citing his dynamic striking and unpredictability. He believes Ortega's poor takedown accuracy (24%) will prevent him from getting the fight to the ground, and that Rodríguez's striking will be too much. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway despite the loss, and that he won't have ring rust this time. He placed a small moneyline bet at +137.

small moneyline bet at +137
"i do think yeah rodriguez gets this done i did put a small money line bet on him at plus 137."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Big Brady picks Brian Ortega to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ortega has improved his wrestling significantly, attempting many takedowns in recent fights against top competition like Holloway, Korean Zombie, and Volkanovski. He believes Ortega can take down Rodriguez, who has been taken down frequently in the past, and once on the ground, Ortega's submission game is elite. He acknowledges Rodriguez is the better striker but thinks Ortega's path to victory is through grappling.

submission in round 2 or 3
"i'm going to say ortega does get this fight down to the mat i'm going to say he does lock up something i'll say second or third round submission for brian ortega"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Cody argues that Yair Rodríguez's ground game and wrestling are exploitable, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar and Jeremy Stephens where he was taken down easily. He notes that Brian Ortega has improved his wrestling, taking down elite fighters like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Cody believes Ortega will capitalize on Rodríguez's tendency to fall off-balance and secure a submission or dominant ground control.

Ortega inside the distance, Ortega by submission, under 4.5 rounds, over 2 takedowns for Ortega
"i just got to think ortega is going to capitalize at some point and for that reason he's got to be the main event selection"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Daniel Levi picks Yair Rodríguez to win as an underdog, emphasizing that Yair must keep the fight standing and avoid reckless spinning attacks that could lead to takedowns. He notes that Ortega is dangerous on the ground with submissions and has a history of comeback finishes, but believes Yair's discipline and striking can earn a decision. Levi mentions he will likely bet Yair at +155, viewing it as a dog-or-pass situation due to high variance.

moneyline bet at +155; likely decision win; dog-or-pass situation
"i'm gonna go yay rodriguez to defeat brian ortega and get the upset and cash as an underdog"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Paul agrees with Cody that Ortega is the rightful favorite, citing Yair's overrated win over Korean Zombie where he was seconds from losing. He emphasizes that Ortega's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, and notes the line moving from -150 to -180. Paul suggests under 4.5 rounds and Ortega by submission as prop bets.

Ortega inside the distance, Ortega by submission, under 4.5 rounds, over 2 takedowns for Ortega
"i think ortega's the the line's been moving that way it was like minus 150 minus 160. it's like minus 180 now it's gonna continue to move i think he's the rightful favorite"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

The MMA Guru picks Brian Ortega over Yair Rodríguez, citing Ortega's superior jiu-jitsu and ability to capitalize on Rodríguez's defensive habits. He notes that Rodríguez dips his head when pressured, which could lead to a guillotine choke. He also mentions Ortega's improved footwork and takedowns, and believes Rodríguez's power is overrated. He predicts a third-round submission win for Ortega.

predicts third-round submission (guillotine)
"i'm going to call a third round guillotine finish for brian ortega getting it done by submission in a great fight"
LOSS vs Max Holloway
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Holloway 0 230 of 404 56% 251 of 434 3 of 5 60% 1 0 6:49
Yair Rodríguez 0 159 of 352 45% 186 of 383 1 of 5 20% 0 1 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Holloway 0 38 of 57 66% 42 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Yair Rodríguez 0 37 of 79 46% 38 of 80 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:43
2 Max Holloway 0 58 of 110 52% 59 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Yair Rodríguez 0 42 of 84 50% 43 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Max Holloway 0 38 of 66 57% 46 of 81 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:04
Yair Rodríguez 0 20 of 47 42% 20 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
4 Max Holloway 0 43 of 77 55% 49 of 84 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:06
Yair Rodríguez 0 24 of 64 37% 28 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Max Holloway 0 53 of 94 56% 55 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:00
Yair Rodríguez 0 36 of 78 46% 57 of 99 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Holloway 230 of 404 56% 129 of 278 66 of 83 35 of 43 187 of 347 22 of 24 21 of 33
Yair Rodríguez 159 of 352 45% 78 of 247 24 of 41 57 of 64 152 of 343 5 of 5 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Holloway 38 of 57 66% 16 of 30 8 of 9 14 of 18 38 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yair Rodríguez 37 of 79 46% 12 of 43 7 of 13 18 of 23 35 of 75 0 of 0 2 of 4
2 Max Holloway 58 of 110 52% 29 of 69 23 of 34 6 of 7 56 of 107 2 of 2 0 of 1
Yair Rodríguez 42 of 84 50% 15 of 54 5 of 7 22 of 23 41 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Max Holloway 38 of 66 57% 25 of 53 11 of 11 2 of 2 20 of 40 4 of 4 14 of 22
Yair Rodríguez 20 of 47 42% 13 of 38 2 of 4 5 of 5 19 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Max Holloway 43 of 77 55% 22 of 52 13 of 16 8 of 9 33 of 65 4 of 5 6 of 7
Yair Rodríguez 24 of 64 37% 17 of 53 3 of 6 4 of 5 24 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Max Holloway 53 of 94 56% 37 of 74 11 of 13 5 of 7 40 of 78 12 of 13 1 of 3
Yair Rodríguez 36 of 78 46% 21 of 59 7 of 11 8 of 8 33 of 75 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Angelo picks Max Holloway to win inside the distance, having placed a one-unit bet at +110. He notes that Holloway's technical striking should cut through Rodriguez's theatrical style. Angelo thinks Holloway will close the distance and avoid the spin attacks, and that Rodriguez's two-year layoff is a factor.

wins inside the distance at plus 110
"i already did the plus 110 wins inside the distance"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Big Brady is confident in Max Holloway, highlighting his insane volume (7.26 significant strikes per minute) and legendary durability (never knocked down). He notes Rodriguez likely needs a KO to win, but Holloway's chin and cardio are elite. Brady expects Holloway to increase volume each round and predicts a fifth-round TKO as damage accumulates.

Holloway by TKO in round 5
"i'm gonna take him to win by like a fifth round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Cody believes Holloway is a god-tier operator who dominates non-elite opponents. He references Holloway's record 445 significant strikes against Kattar and argues that his losses are only to the best (Volkanovski, Poirier). He expects Holloway to win inside the distance, likely by TKO in the later rounds, and thinks the over 3.5 rounds is a solid play.

Max Holloway wins inside the distance (TKO), over 3.5 rounds
"how could you possibly bet against him now at 701 there's no more meat on the bone"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Daniel Levi picks Max Holloway, citing his record-breaking output against Calvin Kattar (447 significant strikes landed) and his status as the clear #2 featherweight. He acknowledges Yair Rodríguez's dynamic striking and finishing ability but believes Holloway's volume and pressure will overwhelm Rodríguez as he fatigues. Levi notes that Rodríguez is a live underdog but ultimately trusts Holloway's proven championship level.

"give me max holloway to come out here and defeat yay rodriguez"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Jacob picks Max Holloway to win inside the distance, placing a four-unit bet at +110. He believes there are levels to this and that Holloway will wear on Rodriguez with volume and finish him. Jacob thinks Holloway wants to make a statement as a big favorite.

four unit bet on max holloway inside the distance
"i got a four unit bet inside the distance you can get it for plus 110 right now"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Paul thinks Max Holloway's volume and durability are unmatched. He notes Holloway's record-breaking strike output and believes Rodríguez can't keep the pace. He's priced out at -720 but still picks Holloway to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.

over 3.5 rounds at -175
"i think max holloway's gonna win i think he wins on volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Max Holloway

The Guru picks Max Holloway by third-round TKO (doctor stoppage due to swelling). He expects Rodríguez to have a strong first round with leg kicks and flashy strikes, but Holloway's pressure, body work, and oblique kicks will break Rodríguez down. By the third round, Rodríguez's eye will be swollen shut, forcing a stoppage.

TKO in round 3 via doctor stoppage
"i'm going with max holloway via third round cko but it's going to be at the end of the round where yay doesn't get back up for the fourth"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 96 of 170 56% 136 of 213 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:10
Jeremy Stephens 0 50 of 95 52% 99 of 156 3 of 4 75% 0 0 5:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 39 of 70 55% 39 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:50
Jeremy Stephens 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 41 of 73 56% 62 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
Jeremy Stephens 0 11 of 22 50% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:33
3 Yair Rodríguez 0 16 of 27 59% 35 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jeremy Stephens 0 28 of 49 57% 67 of 97 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 96 of 170 56% 65 of 127 14 of 23 17 of 20 54 of 100 6 of 10 36 of 60
Jeremy Stephens 50 of 95 52% 35 of 76 10 of 10 5 of 9 19 of 51 6 of 11 25 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 39 of 70 55% 18 of 43 9 of 13 12 of 14 34 of 61 4 of 8 1 of 1
Jeremy Stephens 11 of 24 45% 3 of 14 4 of 4 4 of 6 9 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Yair Rodríguez 41 of 73 56% 37 of 67 2 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 13 2 of 2 34 of 58
Jeremy Stephens 11 of 22 50% 9 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 8 4 of 7 6 of 7
3 Yair Rodríguez 16 of 27 59% 10 of 17 3 of 6 3 of 4 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jeremy Stephens 28 of 49 57% 23 of 43 4 of 4 1 of 2 9 of 22 0 of 1 19 of 26
LOSS vs Jeremy Stephens
No Contest (accidental eye poke) R1 0:15 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Sep 21, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 96 of 170 56% 136 of 213 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:10
Jeremy Stephens 0 50 of 95 52% 99 of 156 3 of 4 75% 0 0 5:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 39 of 70 55% 39 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:50
Jeremy Stephens 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 41 of 73 56% 62 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
Jeremy Stephens 0 11 of 22 50% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:33
3 Yair Rodríguez 0 16 of 27 59% 35 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jeremy Stephens 0 28 of 49 57% 67 of 97 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 96 of 170 56% 65 of 127 14 of 23 17 of 20 54 of 100 6 of 10 36 of 60
Jeremy Stephens 50 of 95 52% 35 of 76 10 of 10 5 of 9 19 of 51 6 of 11 25 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 39 of 70 55% 18 of 43 9 of 13 12 of 14 34 of 61 4 of 8 1 of 1
Jeremy Stephens 11 of 24 45% 3 of 14 4 of 4 4 of 6 9 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Yair Rodríguez 41 of 73 56% 37 of 67 2 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 13 2 of 2 34 of 58
Jeremy Stephens 11 of 22 50% 9 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 8 4 of 7 6 of 7
3 Yair Rodríguez 16 of 27 59% 10 of 17 3 of 6 3 of 4 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jeremy Stephens 28 of 49 57% 23 of 43 4 of 4 1 of 2 9 of 22 0 of 1 19 of 26
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jeremy Stephens vs. Yair Rodriguez

Round 1
We are now treated to a rematch of the main event from UFC Mexico City in September, which tragically ended due to an eye poke within 15 seconds. Rodriguez (12-2, 1 NC; 7-1, 1 NC UFC) is ready to run it back with Stephens (28-16, 1 NC; 16-15, 1 NC UFC), and tensions are high. Trying to keep a lid on this featherweight tilt is referee Kevin MacDonald. There is no touch of the gloves of any kind, as Rodriguez leaps through the air with a flying head kick that clanks off the dome of Stephens. Stephens wings back some angry punches, and the two trade for a moment with bad intentions. Rodriguez clinches up and pushes Stephens against the cage, and Stephens throws a knee to the body, so Rodriguez retaliates with one of his own. The crowd has started to chant "U.S.A." to root on their home country fighter, and as they break apart, Rodriguez lands a powerful elbows over the top. "El Pantera" throws a wild spinning wheel kick that is nowhere near the mark, but he regains position and throws several heavy kicks on both legs. A few body kicks are finding their home on Stephens' midsection, and they are adding up quick. Stephens fires back with everything he has in the form of right hands, but Rodriguez keeps his distance with effective kicks. Another body kick digs in for Rodriguez, and Stephens has lowered his right hand to defend this specific attack. Stephens ducks down possibly for a takedown, but after a little clinch fighting, the two separate. Rodriguez chooses to crash forward into the clinch again, landing a knee up the middle to get there. As Rodriguez slaps a low kick, Stephens rips a right hand to the body of his opponent. The Mexican pulls off a jumping switch kick that catches Stephens flush, but Stephens walks through it. As Stephens presses forward, Rodriguez drops him with a left jab, but cannot take advantage of his grounded adversary as Stephens returns to his feet. Two more kicks get off from Rodriguez, as Stephens chases him around and motions an obscene gesture to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
Rodriguez opens up round two with a spinning kick, but Stephens is able to get up his guard on time. The Mexican fighter then whips a head kick up top, but it is the body kick that follows that does serious damage and makes Stephens buckle over. As Stephens stumbles backwards, Rodriguez swarms him with punches, throwing everything he has into his punches. Stephens defends himself by pursuing a takedown, but Rodriguez is relentless with punches. "Lil' Heathen" is able to survive the assault by going after low takedowns, but Rodriguez walks over it and lands long punches. On his back, Stephens eats wild hammerfists but begins to throw punches while on his back. Rodriguez latches on a brabo choke, and Stephens is trying to roll out of it and survives the submission attempt but is still in grave danger. With pure willpower, Stephens stands back up and unleashes the hardest punches he can possibly throw on Rodriguez. Rodriguez dodges and weaves out of the way of most of these shots, and as Rodriguez catches Stephens to the body again with a kick, Stephens wraps Rodriguez and tries to take him down. Rodriguez rolls through to try to get out of the position but ends up on his back, with Stephens on top raining down punches. El Pantera throws up his legs to search for a triangle choke, and Stephens is not out of the woods yet. In more of a leg scissor choke than a triangle, Stephens breaks the posture and grinds his elbow on his opponent's face as Rodriguez is warned for grabbing the cage. Rodriguez gradually stands up, and Stephens punishes him with a salvo of punches. The Mexican eats several more shots as he finally gets to his feet, and whips a body kick out that backs away Stephens as this crazy round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 3
Stephens comes out threatening with big shots, and as Rodriguez throws a kick out to back him off, he catches Stephens in the groin with a kick. Stephens calls the ref off so that he can charge at Rodriguez, and he slings looping shots that score on Rodriguez and get the crowd amped up. Rodriguez tries to keep his distance with leg kicks, and Stephens catches him on the end of a right hand that Rodriguez wears well. Suddenly, Stephens drops for a double leg takedown and gets Rodriguez down, and although Rodriguez gets back up, Stephens makes sure to score with several punches on his way up. The two separate, but not for long, as Stephens rushes in to secure another takedown and lands in Rodriguez' guard. Rodriguez attempts to utilize a rubber guard to get hold of Stephens' neck, but Stephens pushes the leg off and tries to get his ground-and-pound going. It is quite unfortunate that this fight is only three rounds instead of five, as Stephens sits on top in half guard while throwing punches from above. Stephens continues to mount offense on top in the form of numerous left hands, and the American then decides to drop down elbows that get heavier the more he throws. A huge left hand from Stephens scores as he stands up and dives down to land it, and after some more thudding strikes, the fight is now over. In a display of great sportsmanship, the two embrace, both thrilled with their performances.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Rodriguez)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Stephens (28-28 Draw)

The Official Result
Yair Rodriguez def. Jeremy Stephens via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Charles Rosa - Fight History
LOSS vs Nathaniel Wood
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 0 97 of 159 61% 102 of 166 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:25
Charles Rosa 0 51 of 167 30% 54 of 170 2 of 9 22% 1 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 39 of 62 62% 43 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Charles Rosa 0 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:42
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 31 of 51 60% 31 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Charles Rosa 0 12 of 42 28% 12 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 27 of 46 58% 28 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:07
Charles Rosa 0 14 of 62 22% 17 of 65 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 97 of 159 61% 62 of 111 4 of 13 31 of 35 87 of 144 5 of 7 5 of 8
Charles Rosa 51 of 167 30% 21 of 120 18 of 29 12 of 18 43 of 156 6 of 9 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 39 of 62 62% 27 of 44 3 of 7 9 of 11 38 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 25 of 63 39% 9 of 43 10 of 13 6 of 7 22 of 59 2 of 3 1 of 1
2 Nathaniel Wood 31 of 51 60% 18 of 33 1 of 4 12 of 14 26 of 43 1 of 2 4 of 6
Charles Rosa 12 of 42 28% 6 of 29 2 of 5 4 of 8 11 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 27 of 46 58% 17 of 34 0 of 2 10 of 10 23 of 40 3 of 4 1 of 2
Charles Rosa 14 of 62 22% 6 of 48 6 of 11 2 of 3 10 of 56 3 of 5 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Wood's 75% takedown defense and high volume of strikes, while Charles Rosa is a BJJ specialist who struggles when taken down. He mentions the Casey Kenny loss as a concern but still believes Wood gets it done and will be a parlay piece.

likely parlay piece
"i still think wood gets it done and he is likely a parlay piece so nathaniel wood probably going to be the first leg of one of my parlays"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He notes Wood is moving up in weight but has a massive speed and volume advantage on the feet. Rosa's path to victory is a submission off his back, but Wood has good takedown defense. Rosa is tough to finish, so Wood wins a decision.

Wood by decision
"give me nathaniel wood nathaniel wood to win by a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Nathaniel Wood, noting he can win wherever the fight goes. He highlights Wood's superior boxing, volume, and footwork. Cody thinks Rosa's only chance is a fluke submission, but Wood's takedown defense and submission defense are solid. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"i think nathaniel wood can win the fight however he wants"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel Levi picks Nathaniel Wood, citing a massive speed advantage and excellent leg kicks. He notes that Charles Rosa is slow, hittable, and easy to take down. Levi warns that Wood should avoid getting caught in a submission or cut, but overall sees this as a good introductory fight for Wood at featherweight.

"i think he's got a massive speed advantage here he's got some of the best leg kicks abandoned weight now he's moving up to featherweight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is the better striker and should touch Rosa up from the outside. Rosa is durable and has good submission defense, but Wood can win a decision. The move up to 145 is a concern, but Rosa isn't a grappler who will exploit the size gap. Wood glides to a decision.

"wood will be the pick"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul picks Nathaniel Wood, stating he should cruise. He notes Rosa flops to his back and Wood can box him up. Paul thinks Wood's volume and striking are superior. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"nathaniel wood should absolutely cruise here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru confidently picks Nathaniel Wood to win by TKO in the second round. He praises Wood's takedown defense, leg kicks, and speed. Charles Rosa is 35 and hasn't looked good recently. Wood will chop at the legs, stuff takedowns, and eventually brutalize Rosa for a TKO finish.

second round TKO
"i'm gonna go with nathaniel wood getting this one done and i think he gets it done by tko in the second round"
LOSS vs T.J. Brown
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Brown 0 58 of 99 58% 88 of 141 6 of 8 75% 3 2 7:39
Charles Rosa 0 46 of 107 42% 71 of 132 0 of 0 --- 1 1 2:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Brown 0 35 of 67 52% 38 of 70 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:36
Charles Rosa 0 34 of 73 46% 39 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 T.J. Brown 0 16 of 23 69% 29 of 43 1 of 1 100% 2 2 3:34
Charles Rosa 0 9 of 24 37% 24 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:26
3 T.J. Brown 0 7 of 9 77% 21 of 28 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:29
Charles Rosa 0 3 of 10 30% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Brown 58 of 99 58% 46 of 85 10 of 12 2 of 2 49 of 87 2 of 5 7 of 7
Charles Rosa 46 of 107 42% 21 of 76 5 of 10 20 of 21 42 of 99 1 of 2 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Brown 35 of 67 52% 26 of 56 8 of 10 1 of 1 31 of 60 2 of 5 2 of 2
Charles Rosa 34 of 73 46% 14 of 49 5 of 9 15 of 15 34 of 72 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 T.J. Brown 16 of 23 69% 14 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 20 0 of 0 3 of 3
Charles Rosa 9 of 24 37% 4 of 17 0 of 1 5 of 6 7 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 3
3 T.J. Brown 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Charles Rosa 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Big Brady questions T.J. Brown's fight IQ, recalling his poor game plan against Danny Chavez. However, he notes Brown's striking improvements and training at Glory MMA with Bryce Mitchell. He thinks Brown can win if he mixes in takedowns against Benitez's 56% takedown defense, but he cannot trust Brown enough to bet him. He picks Brown as a dog pick but is not confident.

"give me tj brown as far as a dog pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Cody leans toward Brown, citing the blueprint of taking Rosa down and holding him there. He notes Brown's wrestling should be effective. However, he is wary of Brown's low fight IQ and the short notice change. He calls -280 too risky for parlays.

"laying minus 280 on t.j brown it's too much risky risky risky biz man"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Daniel Levi picks T.J. Brown, though he is uncomfortable laying -250. He notes that Brown is better than he has shown, but his chin is questionable and he gets dropped often. However, Levi believes Brown will outwork Charles Rosa, who is on short notice and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Brown's physicality and wrestling will be key, and that Rosa's best days are behind him. Levi expects Brown to win, possibly by finish.

possible finish
"i still am picking him to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)

The host picks Gabriel Benitez, praising his southpaw striking, body kicks, and leg kicks. He expects Benitez to use his technical striking to outwork T.J. Brown, who is more chaotic and less technical. The host notes Brown's power and BJJ but believes Benitez's cardio and striking accuracy will secure a decision. He compares the matchup to Brown's loss to Danny Chavez, where leg kicks were effective.

"i'm gonna go with gabrielle benitez and i'll take him to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Paul leans toward Rosa as a dog, citing his win-loss streak pattern and submission threat. He notes Rosa's takedown defense is poor but Brown's fight IQ is low. He expects Rosa might catch Brown in a submission. He advises waiting for weigh-ins and possibly better odds.

Rosa by submission (if prop becomes available)
"i think it's dog or pass here a hundred percent"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa (Gabriel Benitez) to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Benitez has devastating kicks, especially calf kicks, which will slow Brown down early. Brown has shown problems with kicks in the past (e.g., against Danny Chavez). He expects Benitez to chop at the legs and body, then clip Brown with a big shot when Brown tries to make something happen. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Brown getting dropped with no base.

"i'm gonna trust gabriel benitez to get this one done i think he's just that next step up in competition"
LOSS vs Damon Jackson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 34 of 87 39% 116 of 181 2 of 3 66% 0 1 1:18
Charles Rosa 0 41 of 87 47% 53 of 101 6 of 12 50% 2 3 10:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 22 of 61 36% 30 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 0 19 of 47 40% 24 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:41
2 Damon Jackson 0 8 of 22 36% 27 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Charles Rosa 0 19 of 37 51% 26 of 45 4 of 8 50% 1 1 4:05
3 Damon Jackson 0 4 of 4 100% 59 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:12
Charles Rosa 0 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 1 of 1 100% 1 2 3:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 34 of 87 39% 17 of 66 4 of 8 13 of 13 26 of 76 5 of 8 3 of 3
Charles Rosa 41 of 87 47% 33 of 77 6 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 58 3 of 3 18 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 22 of 61 36% 8 of 46 4 of 5 10 of 10 18 of 55 4 of 6 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 19 of 47 40% 15 of 42 3 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 37 3 of 3 7 of 7
2 Damon Jackson 8 of 22 36% 5 of 16 0 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 19 of 37 51% 15 of 32 3 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 20 0 of 0 9 of 17
3 Damon Jackson 4 of 4 100% 4 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Charles Rosa 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson despite stats favoring Charles Rosa. He likes Jackson's will, determination, and willingness to scrap. He thinks Jackson's fight IQ and grappling can survive Rosa's jiu-jitsu, and his striking could catch Rosa. He also placed a bet on Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action at plus 125 as a Hail Mary submission play.

Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action at +125 (0.5 units)
"I did um Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action. So, Charles Rosa can pull off a submission, I'll get paid. If Charles Rosa loses, a could be a murdering of a decision or even wins a decision, I …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson, citing Charles Rosa's poor takedown defense and inability to get up. He references Rosa's fights against Bryce Mitchell and Derrick Minor, where they controlled him with takedowns. Brady believes Jackson can implement a similar game plan, taking Rosa down and controlling him for a decision. He notes he would not bet the line at -180/-190, but thinks Jackson can win comfortably via decision.

win by decision
"give me damage jackson to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Cody picks the underdog Rosa, arguing that Jackson's striking is not elite and Rosa's BJJ and counter-striking could be effective. He notes Rosa's durability and ability to win close fights. He believes the line is too wide and Rosa has a live path to victory via decision or submission.

"i'm gonna go with the underdog charles rosa"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Daniel Levi leans toward Charles Rosa as a dog because he views the fight as a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Rosa's ability to survive submissions and make fights close, but acknowledges his tendency to spend too much time on his back. He expects a close, possibly controversial split decision win for Rosa.

split decision
"i'm gonna lean with charles rosa via close maybe controversial split decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jacob leans towards Damon Jackson but is intrigued by Charles Rosa as an underdog at plus 145. He thinks Rosa's grappling is next-level and could cause problems. He expects a close fight and sees Rosa as an interesting underdog play. He would pick Jackson but might bet Rosa.

Charles Rosa at +145 (possible bet)
"I'm kind of leaning towards Rosa for a betting at 145 cuz I think it's a pretty close fight. But if I were to pick, it would probably be Jackson."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The host picks Damon Jackson, citing his superior grappling and pressure. He notes Jackson's excellent cardio and ability to control opponents, while Rosa has good submission defense but may be outgrappled. He predicts a decision win for Jackson, which would be only the second decision of Jackson's career, due to Rosa's durability.

"I do like damon jackson in this fight i do think he has great cardio i do think he has the better jits"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Jackson, citing his better striking and pressure. He notes Rosa's tendency to flop to his back and lack of a striking game plan. He believes Jackson can win on the feet and avoid Rosa's submission threats, though he admits it's not a high-confidence pick.

"damon jackson is the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson to win by unanimous decision. He trusts Jackson's defensive grappling and guillotine threats to keep the fight standing, where Jackson has a significant advantage in striking and reach. He dismisses Rosa's striking as poor.

Jackson by unanimous decision
"i'm gonna go with uh damon jackson here over charles roser... i feel like damon jackson wins this one on the feet and i think he wins it by a very lackluster unanimous decision win"
WIN vs Justin Jaynes
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Rosa 0 51 of 182 28% 114 of 258 2 of 2 100% 2 1 3:37
Justin Jaynes 0 44 of 92 47% 51 of 101 2 of 2 100% 2 3 2:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Rosa 0 35 of 119 29% 36 of 121 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Justin Jaynes 0 19 of 41 46% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:05
2 Charles Rosa 0 3 of 15 20% 57 of 78 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:21
Justin Jaynes 0 6 of 12 50% 10 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 2 1:16
3 Charles Rosa 0 13 of 48 27% 21 of 59 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:49
Justin Jaynes 0 19 of 39 48% 22 of 43 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Rosa 51 of 182 28% 33 of 156 8 of 15 10 of 11 47 of 173 0 of 0 4 of 9
Justin Jaynes 44 of 92 47% 32 of 79 9 of 9 3 of 4 42 of 89 2 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Rosa 35 of 119 29% 22 of 101 5 of 9 8 of 9 34 of 116 0 of 0 1 of 3
Justin Jaynes 19 of 41 46% 13 of 34 3 of 3 3 of 4 19 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Rosa 3 of 15 20% 1 of 12 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 2
Justin Jaynes 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 1
3 Charles Rosa 13 of 48 27% 10 of 43 3 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 44 0 of 0 2 of 4
Justin Jaynes 19 of 39 48% 14 of 34 5 of 5 0 of 0 18 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Angelo picks Charles Rosa, believing Rosa's jiu-jitsu is fantastic and that he can avoid Jaynes's early storm and take over in later rounds. He notes that Jaynes is not Derrick Minner and that styles make fights. However, he admits he is not confident enough to place a bet on it.

"i think charles rose has the pick here at least for me uh i don't have a bet on it i'm not that confident but i do think charles rose wins this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Big Brady picks Charles Rosa to win by third round submission, citing Jaynes's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Rosa's durability (only one KO loss) and well-rounded skills, while Jaynes is a one-round fighter with 33% takedown defense. He expects Rosa to weather the early storm and take over as Jaynes gasses.

by submission, third round
"i'm going to take charles rosa to win by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Cody picks Rosa, noting that Jaynes has zero takedown accuracy and is a brawler who fades. Rosa's takedown defense is a liability, but Jaynes doesn't wrestle. Rosa's striking and cardio should allow him to outwork Jaynes. Cody thinks Rosa is untrustworthy but the style matchup favors him. He notes Rosa is coming off a loss, which historically makes him more reliable.

"i gotta make the play on a few of them and i think that styles make fights i've always said that this is this is a style clash that would favor him for a change"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Jacob picks Charles Rosa by submission or decision, noting that Rosa always gets submissions or loses decisions. He thinks Jaynes will try to wrestle, which will be a mistake, and Rosa will find a submission. Jacob is not confident enough to put Rosa in his lineup at 8600 but believes Rosa wins.

"yeah so i have charles rosa listed as submission or decision because it seems like he always gets submissions or he loses decisions"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Rosa is my lock of the night. Jaynes is not UFC caliber and has no defense. Rosa has durability, striking technique, and can take Jaynes down. He should invest in body shots early to slow Jaynes down, then find a submission in the second round. Rosa's only kryptonite is being ground out, but Jaynes can't do that. Rosa should be a much bigger favorite.

Rosa by submission plus 210; Rosa inside the distance plus 145; under 2.5 rounds minus 125
"Charles rosa is actually my locker then i played for this week... I truly believe that justin james is not a ufc caliber fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Paul picks Rosa but lost trust after his loss to Minor. He notes Rosa's pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rosa should stick to grappling and avoid brawling. He acknowledges Jaynes' power but thinks Rosa's experience and durability will carry him.

"i'll pick charles rosa but uh losing against men or he uh he lost my trust"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes as a big upset, citing his ferocity and early-round finishing ability. He criticizes Charles Rosa's striking defense and believes Jaynes will expose those holes, predicting a first-round KO. He notes Rosa's decline after his Shane Burgos fight and considers Jaynes the fresher fighter at 31.

first round KO
"i think he's gonna crack charles rosa on the chin and i'm gonna go with justin james with a big upset"
LOSS vs Darrick Minner
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darrick Minner 0 15 of 25 60% 40 of 51 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 1 45 of 60 75% 96 of 117 4 of 5 80% 3 0 12:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darrick Minner 0 6 of 11 54% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 0 23 of 35 65% 49 of 66 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:03
2 Darrick Minner 0 2 of 4 50% 9 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 1 15 of 16 93% 32 of 33 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:46
3 Darrick Minner 0 7 of 10 70% 20 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 0 7 of 9 77% 15 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darrick Minner 15 of 25 60% 9 of 17 4 of 4 2 of 4 8 of 17 0 of 0 7 of 8
Charles Rosa 45 of 60 75% 35 of 49 5 of 5 5 of 6 21 of 31 5 of 7 19 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darrick Minner 6 of 11 54% 1 of 4 3 of 3 2 of 4 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 23 of 35 65% 18 of 29 2 of 2 3 of 4 10 of 17 4 of 6 9 of 12
2 Darrick Minner 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 15 of 16 93% 12 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 8
3 Darrick Minner 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 8
Charles Rosa 7 of 9 77% 5 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Charles Rosa

Daniel Levi respects Darrick Minner's 20 first-round submissions and his ability to finish quickly, but notes Charles Rosa has never been submitted and survived deep submission attempts against Yair Rodriguez and Bryce Mitchell. Levi thinks if Minner doesn't get the finish in the first round, Rosa's work rate and kicks will overwhelm Minner in the later rounds. He is hesitant to lay the -200 chalk on Rosa but sees more paths to victory for him.

"if it hits the score cards i think 29 28 rosa if it's a late finish i think rosa if it's an early finish winner so more paths for rosa so i'll take rosa here but i would be a …"
WIN vs Kevin Aguilar
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Eye vs. Calvillo · Jun 13, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Rosa 0 69 of 173 39% 69 of 173 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 53 of 135 39% 53 of 135 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Rosa 0 20 of 56 35% 20 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 14 of 37 37% 14 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Charles Rosa 0 22 of 50 44% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 17 of 39 43% 17 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Charles Rosa 0 27 of 67 40% 27 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 22 of 59 37% 22 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Rosa 69 of 173 39% 33 of 119 15 of 26 21 of 28 69 of 173 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 53 of 135 39% 34 of 109 17 of 22 2 of 4 50 of 130 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Rosa 20 of 56 35% 5 of 34 5 of 9 10 of 13 20 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 14 of 37 37% 10 of 29 4 of 7 0 of 1 11 of 32 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Charles Rosa 22 of 50 44% 10 of 30 6 of 11 6 of 9 22 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 17 of 39 43% 11 of 31 5 of 6 1 of 2 17 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Charles Rosa 27 of 67 40% 18 of 55 4 of 6 5 of 6 27 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 22 of 59 37% 13 of 49 8 of 9 1 of 1 22 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa, noting that he shouldn't be judged by his loss to Bryce Mitchell. He highlights Rosa's jiu-jitsu and striking, recalling that Rosa out-struck Shane Burgos in their fight. He believes Rosa will finish Aguilar by head kick, as Aguilar is coming off a KO loss and a short turnaround.

Rosa wins by KO (head kick)
"Charles Rosa was beating shame Burgos on the feet. He's a jujitsu guy, he was clearly out striking Shane Burgos."
LOSS vs Bryce Mitchell
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–24) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 40 of 49 81% 60 of 74 3 of 3 100% 5 0 12:51
Charles Rosa 0 5 of 10 50% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 11 of 13 84% 12 of 14 1 of 1 100% 3 0 3:22
Charles Rosa 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 17 of 21 80% 28 of 32 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:37
Charles Rosa 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 12 of 15 80% 20 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:52
Charles Rosa 0 1 of 5 20% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 40 of 49 81% 27 of 36 13 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 40 of 46
Charles Rosa 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 11 of 13 84% 8 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 12
Charles Rosa 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Bryce Mitchell 17 of 21 80% 12 of 16 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 20
Charles Rosa 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Bryce Mitchell 12 of 15 80% 7 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 14
Charles Rosa 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Rosa vs. Bryce Mitchell

Round 1
Dropping down to the featherweight division, we are treated to a matchup between two solid prospects in American Top Team’s Rosa (12-3, 3-3 UFC) and the undefeated Mitchell (12-0, 3-0 UFC). Our referee for this bout is Keith Peterson, and uncharacteristically he is allowing some nonsense by not wearing a mask. The two elect not to touch gloves to kick off their match, and Mitchell immediately stalks Rosa down against the fence. Rosa tries to keep away and throw kicks, but Mitchell is unconcerned and hits a quick single leg takedown. Mitchell ties up the legs to keep Rosa grounded, and Mitchell circles around to take the back. Rosa spins out but is immediately is in the danger zone. Mitchell sets up an arm-triangle choke, and Rosa’s head is changing colors rapidly and thinks about tapping. Rosa continues to flail and almost taps again, but somehow manages to pull his head free. Mitchell is on him like glue, taking the back before hunting for an arm-triangle choke again. Rosa throws his legs up to hunt for an inverted triangle choke, and Mitchell is unconcerned as he spins free. The ensuing exchange miraculously leads to Mitchell setting up a twister, and the commentary booth is losing it. Rosa struggles, turns and tries to survive, and manages to get out for a moment, only to give it up again. In an impressive showing of submission defense, Rosa pulls his body out but surrenders another arm-triangle choke. This time, it’s tight, and Mitchell squeezes with all he has. Rosa’s head turns red quickly once more, but he powers free and remains on his back. Mitchell tries to set up one last submission, but the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 2
Rosa opens the round with a few head kicks, and keep Mitchell at bay for a few seconds. “Thug Nasty” gathers his thoughts and shoots in for a takedown, and immediately passes guard and takes three-quarter mount. Rosa is unable to get any offense going as Mitchell nullifies him, and gives up mount as Mitchell tries to set up another arm-triangle. While Mitchell continues to style on Rosa, the commentary booth ponders the true location of Fight Island -- none of them know. Mitchell drops down a few heavy elbows and punches on top, and Rosa uses that aggression against his opponent to pull for a leglock. Mitchell practically ignores it, before stepping back to mount. He steps over to get an arm-triangle choke, and Rosa stays calm and defends it well enough before Mitchell bails to return to mount. Rosa turns over, and Mitchell thinks about taking his back before setting up another twister. This is unquestionably the record for the most twister attempts in a UFC fight before, and this time it’s tight as a drum. Unfortunately for Mitchell, the horn sounds before he can get the tap, but this is all one-way traffic from “Thug Nasty.”

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell

Round 3
Within 15 seconds, Mitchell dives into a takedown and incredibly sets up another twister. Rosa locks his arm up to hold on tight, but Mitchell pulls on the right arm of Rosa to twist him the other direction. Rosa pushes with all his might to get free, and while he gets out of the bad situation, he is still grounded. “Boston Strong” tries to set up a guillotine off his back, and Mitchell thinks about going after a Von Preux choke until thinking about the arm-triangle choke again. The unbeaten fighter chains submission together one after the other, and props to Rosa for surviving, but it is total domination. Rosa gives up his back, defends a choke and rolls back over. Ever vigilant, Mitchell returns to mount before hunting for the arm-triangle once more. Rosa is cursing out Mitchell for “laying on me” but is not showing the defense to get out of harm’s way. Mitchell takes a high mount and thinks about blasting him with a few shots on top, but Rosa rolls out just in time. Mitchell hops out, turns around and dives back in to secure top position. Mitchell rolls through a crucifix, hammers down a few elbows, takes top position with Rosa’s feet trying to kick off the cage. He successfully does so with seconds to spare, but he is spent -- Mitchell crashes forward to strike him and clinch up, but the round, and fight, is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-24 Mitchell)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Charles Rosa via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-25, 30-24)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Big Brady picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his youth, size, and overall superiority on the ground and feet. He downplays Rosa's submission win over Manny Bermudez, calling Bermudez a fraud. He thinks the line at minus 175 is a bit wide and sees little value but still expects Mitchell to win.

Mitchell minus 175; line is a little wide
"I actually like Bryce Mitchell quite a bit here. Uh he's the younger fighter. He's the bigger fighter. I think he's really going to give problems to Rosa um on the ground and on the feet."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Daniel Levi slightly leans towards Bryce Mitchell, citing his athleticism and youth. He notes that Mitchell has holes in his game and may fatigue, but Rosa is a finished product who isn't getting better. Levi thinks Mitchell can get the job done by being younger and fresher, possibly with a late finish.

Mitchell by late finish
"I'll slightly lean with Bryce Mitchell because of the athleticism the youth and things among those lines but it would not surprise me at all if Rosa came out here and got the upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Matt initially considered Mitchell as a lock but after tape review, he favors Rosa as a live dog. He highlights Rosa's leg kicks, offensive guard, and ability to keep the fight standing, while questioning Mitchell's striking development and the impact of training camps during the pandemic. He picks Rosa by decision.

"I think that Charles Rosa definitely is a live dog... I'm going to say Charles Rosa by decision"
Verbal Submission (armbar) R1 2:46 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Rosa 0 6 of 8 75% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Manny Bermudez 0 27 of 38 71% 37 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Rosa 0 6 of 8 75% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Manny Bermudez 0 27 of 38 71% 37 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Rosa 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manny Bermudez 27 of 38 71% 25 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 26 of 32
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Rosa 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manny Bermudez 27 of 38 71% 25 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 26 of 32