Career Averages - Andrea Lee
Career Averages - Montana De La Rosa
Andrea Lee - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 53 of 175 | 30% | 66 of 192 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 74 of 137 | 54% | 77 of 142 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 18 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 15 of 58 | 25% | 18 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 25 of 46 | 54% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 20 of 60 | 33% | 30 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 29 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 53 of 175 | 30% | 13 of 109 | 25 of 44 | 15 of 22 | 52 of 174 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 74 of 137 | 54% | 54 of 114 | 10 of 13 | 10 of 10 | 68 of 130 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 18 of 57 | 31% | 1 of 32 | 8 of 12 | 9 of 13 | 18 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 21 of 43 | 48% | 14 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 15 of 58 | 25% | 3 of 35 | 6 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 25 of 46 | 54% | 17 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andrea Lee | 20 of 60 | 33% | 9 of 42 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 28 of 48 | 58% | 23 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee despite her five-fight losing streak, arguing that she is still a good striker with quality losses and close decisions. He criticizes JJ Aldrich as inconsistent and lacking in wrestling and striking. He sees value in Lee at +163 odds but warns against betting on this fight due to the unpredictability of both fighters.
Big Brady picks JJ Aldrich but is hesitant. He acknowledges value on Andrea Lee at +170 but cannot pick her due to her five-fight losing streak and apparent decline. He notes Aldrich's takedown defense and striking should be enough, but expects a close split decision.
The host leans with Aldrich, believing she can use her striking approach to nullify Lee's kickboxing and shut down any grappling attempts. He expects Aldrich's combination style to earn her a decision win.
The Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Andrea Lee. He reasons that Andrea Lee is on a five-fight losing streak and declining, while Aldrich is more well-rounded and can get takedowns. He recalls Aldrich's performance against Erin Blanchfield before getting caught in a guillotine. He predicts a split decision win for Aldrich.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 75 of 152 | 49% | 115 of 201 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 2:08 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 70 of 180 | 38% | 88 of 206 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 52 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:52 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 14 of 44 | 31% | 17 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 31 of 68 | 45% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 33 of 81 | 40% | 37 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:16 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 34 of 71 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 75 of 152 | 49% | 37 of 109 | 29 of 31 | 9 of 12 | 58 of 129 | 13 of 16 | 4 of 7 |
| Andrea Lee | 70 of 180 | 38% | 53 of 156 | 12 of 17 | 5 of 7 | 62 of 161 | 5 of 16 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 27 of 50 | 54% | 16 of 38 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 31 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 7 |
| Andrea Lee | 14 of 44 | 31% | 9 of 37 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 36 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 31 of 68 | 45% | 14 of 49 | 11 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 30 of 65 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 33 of 81 | 40% | 26 of 72 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 33 of 77 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Montana De La Rosa | 17 of 34 | 50% | 7 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 23 of 55 | 41% | 18 of 47 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee, noting that Montana De La Rosa is a wrestler but didn't use her wrestling in her last fight against JJ Aldrich. He thinks if Montana doesn't commit to takedowns, Andrea will out-strike her. Andrea is a good striker with underrated skills, and her losses are to quality opponents. He is not confident Montana will wrestle, so he goes with Andrea.
Big Brady picks Montana De La Rosa with little confidence. He notes that Andrea Lee is on a four-fight losing streak and looks to be declining, while De La Rosa's striking has improved. He expects De La Rosa to get takedowns and control time. He says he is not betting on this fight and advises others to avoid it.
Cody picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has poor ring IQ and does not commit to her wrestling. Lee has improved her takedown defense and has better striking volume. Cody expects Lee to sprawl and brawl, outpointing De La Rosa on the feet. He also likes Lee by decision at plus money.
Daniel picks Lee as the better fighter despite both being on losing streaks. He notes Lee won their first fight and has faced tougher competition, but questions her motivation and slowing speed. He sees Montana as never assertive enough, so he expects Lee to win a split decision.
Jacob leans Andrea Lee, but with low confidence. He notes that both fighters are better than their records suggest. He worries that if Montana commits to wrestling, Andrea could be on her back for 15 minutes. However, he thinks Andrea is the better striker and can defend takedowns with footwork. He expects a close fight and goes with Andrea, but is not confident.
Lee is a skilled striker with an active Jiu-Jitsu game, while De La Rosa relies on grappling but lacks striking. Lee should land strikes and stuff takedowns, and may even catch a submission off her back. However, Lee can be flaky if she gets demoralized. Leaning Lee by submission, but passing on betting due to line movement.
Paul picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has not been dominant with her grappling recently. Lee has better striking and takedown defense. Paul expects Lee to win on volume and outpoint De La Rosa over three rounds.
The Guru picks Andrea Lee because she does damage well and is a more physical specimen with less wasted weight. He thinks her age (35) and lack of children give her anger and aggression, especially in the third round. He notes Montana De La Rosa has a decent grappling game but Lee did better on the feet against Macy Barber. He expects Lee to do better on the feet and win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miranda Maverick | 0 | 36 of 102 | 35% | 59 of 126 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 66 of 136 | 48% | 106 of 180 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miranda Maverick | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 14 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 31 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Miranda Maverick | 0 | 9 of 34 | 26% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 47 of 74 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 | |
| 3 | Miranda Maverick | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 31 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 28 of 55 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miranda Maverick | 36 of 102 | 35% | 14 of 72 | 13 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 32 of 96 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 |
| Andrea Lee | 66 of 136 | 48% | 28 of 89 | 16 of 25 | 22 of 22 | 60 of 128 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miranda Maverick | 12 of 31 | 38% | 4 of 20 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 24 of 43 | 55% | 9 of 25 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 10 | 23 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Miranda Maverick | 9 of 34 | 26% | 4 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 23 of 48 | 47% | 11 of 34 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 21 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Miranda Maverick | 15 of 37 | 40% | 6 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Andrea Lee | 19 of 45 | 42% | 8 of 30 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Miranda Maverick, citing her pressure, takedowns, and toughness. He notes that Andrea Lee has fought tougher competition but is on a three-fight skid. He cautions that the moneyline is juiced and recommends the over 2.5 rounds as a lock.
Big Brady picks Miranda Maverick to win, citing her youth (26 vs 35) and physical strength as key advantages. He notes Andrea Lee's poor takedown defense (54%) and history of being taken down by lesser wrestlers, expecting Maverick to get the fight to the mat and grind out a decision. He acknowledges Lee's underrated striking but believes Maverick's wrestling and control will be too much. He mentions the line is moving but says he's probably not betting this one.
Cody picks Lee, noting her high volume striking (100+ significant strikes) compared to Maverick's lower output. He questions Maverick's takedown effectiveness and believes Lee can win on the feet. He sees plus 170 as good value and picks Lee.
Daniel picks Miranda Maverick but expresses hesitation about the betting line. He notes that Andrea Lee is physically strong and that Maverick's striking is her weakest area. He worries that Lee's strength could cause problems, but ultimately believes Maverick's grappling advantage will prevail. He says he is staying away from the line.
Daniel Vreeland passes on this fight, noting Andrea Lee's decline and Miranda Maverick's inconsistency. He considered taking the dog on Lee but decided against it given her recent performances.
Jeff picks Miranda Maverick, noting that Andrea Lee is on a three-fight skid and hasn't won since 2021. He believes Maverick is a younger, stronger fighter who can impose her will. He acknowledges Lee's physical strength but thinks Maverick's grappling and overall game will be too much. He is not betting the line, however, as he finds it unappealing.
Maverick is younger, stronger, and will dominate in the clinch and on the ground. Lee may be the better technical striker but has a history of breaking under pressure. Maverick grinds out a decision win.
Paul picks Lee, arguing that the line is inflated by Maverick's recent win over low-level competition. He notes Lee has fought tougher opponents and has better volume striking. He believes Maverick's wrestling is not as effective against higher-level grapplers, and Lee can outwork her on the feet. He sees Lee as a clear underdog value.
The MMA Guru picks Miranda Maverick, citing her youth, improvement at Team Elevation, and full focus on MMA now that she's done with education. He notes Andrea Lee's frustration when taken down and lack of calmness on bottom. He believes Maverick's grappling will be key, though he acknowledges Lee's stronger strength of schedule and mentions he might advise betting on Lee if her odds become bigger underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 0 | 43 of 125 | 34% | 43 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 70 of 174 | 40% | 70 of 174 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 0 | 14 of 49 | 28% | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 26 of 62 | 41% | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 0 | 11 of 34 | 32% | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 22 of 62 | 35% | 22 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 43 of 125 | 34% | 12 of 74 | 11 of 23 | 20 of 28 | 43 of 125 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 70 of 174 | 40% | 34 of 111 | 17 of 43 | 19 of 20 | 70 of 174 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 14 of 49 | 28% | 4 of 29 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 13 | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 26 of 62 | 41% | 13 of 38 | 6 of 16 | 7 of 8 | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 18 of 42 | 42% | 5 of 24 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 22 of 50 | 44% | 8 of 29 | 9 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 11 of 34 | 32% | 3 of 21 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 22 of 62 | 35% | 13 of 44 | 2 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Natália Silva, citing her well-rounded skills, power that carries into later rounds, and ability to turn fights into brawls. He notes that Andrea Lee is tough and technical but believes Silva is the better striker and grappler, and that Lee won't be able to take her down. He has Silva in a parlay and also suggests betting the under on Andrea Lee's takedown line.
Big Brady leans toward Natália Silva despite the wide line, citing her power advantage and elite takedown defense. He notes Andrea Lee has good volume and underrated skills, but Silva lands harder shots and may mix in takedowns. He expects the fight to go the distance with Silva winning by decision, similar to Lee's fight with Mayra Bueno Silva.
Cody sees Silva as the complete package with good striking and fast hands, while Lee is slowing down and has a wonky training situation. He expects Silva to piece up Lee, but warns that women's MMA is unpredictable.
Daniel Levi picks Andrea Lee as an underdog, citing her experience and savvy. He notes that Silva is small for the weight class and has shown weaknesses when taken down, as Lee's grappling is better than Silva's previous opponents. Levi thinks Lee can win via grappling and that the plus money is valuable. He also likes the plus 3.5 spread. However, he acknowledges Silva is the real deal and is not going heavy on the bet.
Lucrative James picks Natália Silva to win, citing her excellent distance management and takedown defense. He expects Silva to dictate the striking range and potentially get takedowns of her own, as Andrea Lee has historically lost when taken down and controlled on the ground. He sees the fight going to a decision with Silva edging it out 29-28 or 30-27.
Silva's movement and striking accuracy should be too much for Lee. She lands significant strikes from distance and has shown finishing ability. However, the moneyline is too wide given Lee's experience and potential grappling success. Prefer Silva by decision prop as a better value.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Natália Silva, calling her one of the rare good female MMA prospects. He highlights her stunning striking performances and dominant wins over Jasmine Jasudavicius and Tereza Bledá. He notes Andrea Lee has taken a lot of damage and is 34, while Silva is 26 and improving. He expects Silva to win by decision but thinks Lee will make it tough.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 39 of 103 | 37% | 57 of 125 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:20 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 48 of 127 | 37% | 66 of 158 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 16 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 17 of 45 | 37% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 26 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 24 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 15 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 20 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 39 of 103 | 37% | 10 of 57 | 15 of 27 | 14 of 19 | 34 of 97 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Andrea Lee | 48 of 127 | 37% | 31 of 97 | 9 of 20 | 8 of 10 | 38 of 113 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 12 of 35 | 34% | 3 of 18 | 5 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 17 of 45 | 37% | 11 of 35 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 15 of 38 | 39% | 6 of 23 | 2 of 6 | 7 of 9 | 14 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 17 of 43 | 39% | 11 of 31 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 17 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 12 of 30 | 40% | 1 of 16 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Andrea Lee | 14 of 39 | 35% | 9 of 31 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 33 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee as an underdog, arguing that Barber is overrated and a decision fighter who can break mentally. He notes that Lee is a technical striker with improved grappling and has fought tougher competition. He believes Lee can keep the fight standing and out-strike Barber, and that Barber's takedowns may not be enough. He says no bet on this fight due to unknowns.
Big Brady picks Andrea Lee as a dog, believing the fight will be closer than the odds indicate. He thinks Lee is the better striker with more volume, while Barber relies on physical strength and takedowns. Brady notes Barber's striking is still a work in progress and that Lee can work back to her feet if taken down. He predicts a split decision win for Lee, possibly a robbery, and expects the fight to go the distance.
Cody does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup, noting Barber's youth and cardio advantage but also her lack of takedowns in recent fights. He sees a path for Lee if she can keep the fight standing and outstrike Barber, but he is wary of Lee's tendency to fatigue. He ultimately says he wants nothing to do with the line, finding it too wide.
Connor picks Barber because Lee has a history of crumbling under pressure and bullying. He notes Barber's recent assertiveness and willingness to clinch and use her strength. He acknowledges Barber's poor kickboxing but thinks she will force a clinch-heavy fight where Lee fades.
Jacob picks Barber but admits he is biased against Lee. He thinks Barber can get takedowns and wear Lee down, similar to how Viviane Araujo did. He warns that Barber is a decision fighter and should not be put in parlays. He acknowledges Lee is dangerous on the feet and that Barber's takedowns are key.
The host believes Barber's strength and grappling improvements at Team Alpha Male will be key. He expects Barber to assert herself early, counter Lee's combinations, and eventually get clinch situations where she can rough Lee up against the cage. He notes that if Lee gets into a flow state it could be trouble, but Barber's power and explosiveness should deter her. He predicts Barber wins by decision.
The Guru picks Barber, citing her improved grappling and youth (24 vs 34). He thinks Barber can take Lee down and slow her down as the fight progresses, winning the last two rounds via decision. He notes Lee's tendency to fade when wrestled.
Zane picks Barber but notes it could easily be a fight where Barber flops around and Lee jabs her. He highlights Barber's physicality and willingness to make opponents deal with her strength. He also notes Barber's reliable third-round surge if things aren't going well.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 39 of 79 | 49% | 96 of 160 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 | 0 | 10:40 |
| Andrea Lee | 1 | 47 of 82 | 57% | 64 of 103 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 31 of 48 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Andrea Lee | 1 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 29 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 48 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 13 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 39 of 79 | 49% | 25 of 63 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 |
| Andrea Lee | 47 of 82 | 57% | 34 of 65 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 36 of 64 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 18 of 34 | 52% | 11 of 26 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Andrea Lee | 25 of 51 | 49% | 19 of 42 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 34 | 6 of 10 | 4 of 7 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 14 of 27 | 51% | 10 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Andrea Lee | 9 of 10 | 90% | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 7 of 18 | 38% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Andrea Lee | 13 of 21 | 61% | 10 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Andrea Lee, noting her improved takedown defense and cardio. He thinks Araújo has cardio issues and fades in the third round. He believes Lee will push the pace, tire Araújo out, and win by volume. He mentions Lee's training with Tony Kelley and her social media showing hard work.
Paul is cautious, warning that Araújo is more of a wrestler and Lee's takedown defense is her kryptonite. He says it could be a situation where Araújo takes Lee down and holds top control, making it risky. He advises not putting this on a top ticket.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 47 of 154 | 30% | 47 of 154 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 84 of 210 | 40% | 85 of 211 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 25 of 87 | 28% | 25 of 87 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 43 of 116 | 37% | 44 of 117 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 22 of 67 | 32% | 22 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 41 of 94 | 43% | 41 of 94 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 47 of 154 | 30% | 18 of 99 | 21 of 46 | 8 of 9 | 47 of 154 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 84 of 210 | 40% | 46 of 155 | 30 of 45 | 8 of 10 | 83 of 208 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 25 of 87 | 28% | 11 of 62 | 10 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 25 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 43 of 116 | 37% | 27 of 92 | 12 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 43 of 115 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 22 of 67 | 32% | 7 of 37 | 11 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 41 of 94 | 43% | 19 of 63 | 18 of 26 | 4 of 5 | 40 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee, citing her polished striking and comfort on the feet. He notes that Calvillo looks uncomfortable striking and that Lee has improved grappling. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Lee at near even money and thinks she can control the striking exchanges.
Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo but is hesitant, noting Andrea Lee has superior striking volume and accuracy. However, he highlights Lee's poor takedown defense (57%) and that she has been taken down in every UFC fight except one. Brady believes Calvillo can win by wrestling, but recalls her fight against Chookagian where she didn't wrestle enough, causing doubt.
Cody has a gut feeling that Calvillo might lose. He notes that Lee has been working on her wrestling and that Calvillo is 1-2 at 125 lbs. He thinks if Lee can stuff takedowns, she can out-strike Calvillo. He calls it a 'dog or pass' and might take a small shot on Lee.
Daniel Levi picks Cynthia Calvillo, citing her dominant ground game and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee has been taken down multiple times by previous opponents (Roxanne Modafferi, Lauren Murphy, Joanne Calderwood) and believes Calvillo only needs one or two takedowns to win rounds or secure a finish. Levi acknowledges Lee's striking volume but thinks Calvillo's grappling will be the difference.
Jacob picks Cynthia Calvillo, believing she will dominate on the ground. He thinks Calvillo will get in the pocket, take Lee down, and control the fight. Jacob is a big Calvillo fan and thinks the UFC gave her a winnable matchup after her loss to Andrade.
Paul believes Calvillo has a massive wrestling advantage and should spam takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee gives up takedowns to everyone. He thinks Calvillo can control the fight on the ground and win a decision.
The Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo by unanimous decision (29-27). He expects Andrea Lee to win the first round on the feet, but Calvillo's takedowns and ground control in rounds two and three will secure the win. Calvillo will get a 10-8 in the third due to dominant ground and pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 45 of 62 | 72% | 88 of 108 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 36 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 28 of 44 | 63% | 43 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 34 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 17 of 18 | 94% | 45 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 45 of 62 | 72% | 32 of 43 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 19 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 21 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 23 of 41 | 56% | 13 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 32 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 28 of 44 | 63% | 15 of 25 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 18 of 34 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 22 of 39 | 56% | 13 of 29 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 17 of 18 | 94% | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 17 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Lee throws high volume (5.58 strikes/min) and has good striking defense. Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by strikers. Lee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. The line has shifted heavily towards Lee, and I think she wins a decision as a slight underdog.
Cody picks Lee, arguing that Shevchenko has no power and Lee's volume will be decisive. He notes that Lee's takedown defense is her weakness, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler. Cody believes Lee will win by decision, using her striking output.
Daniel Levi picks Antonina Shevchenko, citing Andrea Lee's cardio issues and decline since her breakup. He notes that Lee gasses out and becomes flat-footed, while Shevchenko is more disciplined and can clinch and knee. Levi thinks Shevchenko will dominate in the clinch and win a 30-27 decision. He also mentions Shevchenko's improved ground game.
The host picks Shevchenko, giving her the slight advantage in striking. He notes she is the better technical striker and taller, which should help maintain distance. He acknowledges concerns about her grappling defense but thinks Lee is unlikely to implement a wrestling game plan. He predicts a decision win for Shevchenko but says he is not lock confident.
Paul picks Lee, noting that Shevchenko is not her sister and lacks power. He believes Lee's volume and takedown defense will be key, though he is not confident. Paul mentions that Lee has been losing due to takedowns, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler.
The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko, but with low confidence, admitting he flipped a coin. He thinks Shevchenko is slightly more technical on the feet and benefits from training with her sister Valentina. He acknowledges Andrea Lee has a grappling advantage but predicts a split decision 29-28 for Shevchenko.
Montana De La Rosa - Fight History
Angelo picks Luana Carolina, citing her superior striking and solid takedown defense (74%). He believes she can keep the fight standing and outpoint Montana De La Rosa, who relies on wrestling. He notes that Carolina is used to opponents trying to take her down and sees her as a solid bet, possibly worth a stab.
Big Brady leans toward Luana Carolina, impressed by her takedown defense. He notes that Montana De La Rosa will try to wrestle, but if she can't get takedowns, Carolina is the better striker. He expects a close split decision.
The host expects De La Rosa's wrestling style to pay off and expose holes in Luana Carolina's game. He looks for De La Rosa to smother her with grappling, possibly opening a submission opportunity, but primarily controlling the fight and winning on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Luana Carolina over Montana De La Rosa. He notes that Montana has had takedowns but hasn't established dominant control, while Luana will win on the feet with more grit and determination. He also mentions a psychological edge: Luana will be jealous of Montana's looks and fight with rage. He predicts a split decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 75 of 152 | 49% | 115 of 201 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 2:08 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 70 of 180 | 38% | 88 of 206 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 52 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:52 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 14 of 44 | 31% | 17 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 31 of 68 | 45% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 33 of 81 | 40% | 37 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:16 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 34 of 71 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 75 of 152 | 49% | 37 of 109 | 29 of 31 | 9 of 12 | 58 of 129 | 13 of 16 | 4 of 7 |
| Andrea Lee | 70 of 180 | 38% | 53 of 156 | 12 of 17 | 5 of 7 | 62 of 161 | 5 of 16 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 27 of 50 | 54% | 16 of 38 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 31 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 7 |
| Andrea Lee | 14 of 44 | 31% | 9 of 37 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 36 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 31 of 68 | 45% | 14 of 49 | 11 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 30 of 65 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 33 of 81 | 40% | 26 of 72 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 33 of 77 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Montana De La Rosa | 17 of 34 | 50% | 7 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 23 of 55 | 41% | 18 of 47 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee, noting that Montana De La Rosa is a wrestler but didn't use her wrestling in her last fight against JJ Aldrich. He thinks if Montana doesn't commit to takedowns, Andrea will out-strike her. Andrea is a good striker with underrated skills, and her losses are to quality opponents. He is not confident Montana will wrestle, so he goes with Andrea.
Big Brady picks Montana De La Rosa with little confidence. He notes that Andrea Lee is on a four-fight losing streak and looks to be declining, while De La Rosa's striking has improved. He expects De La Rosa to get takedowns and control time. He says he is not betting on this fight and advises others to avoid it.
Cody picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has poor ring IQ and does not commit to her wrestling. Lee has improved her takedown defense and has better striking volume. Cody expects Lee to sprawl and brawl, outpointing De La Rosa on the feet. He also likes Lee by decision at plus money.
Daniel picks Lee as the better fighter despite both being on losing streaks. He notes Lee won their first fight and has faced tougher competition, but questions her motivation and slowing speed. He sees Montana as never assertive enough, so he expects Lee to win a split decision.
Jacob leans Andrea Lee, but with low confidence. He notes that both fighters are better than their records suggest. He worries that if Montana commits to wrestling, Andrea could be on her back for 15 minutes. However, he thinks Andrea is the better striker and can defend takedowns with footwork. He expects a close fight and goes with Andrea, but is not confident.
Lee is a skilled striker with an active Jiu-Jitsu game, while De La Rosa relies on grappling but lacks striking. Lee should land strikes and stuff takedowns, and may even catch a submission off her back. However, Lee can be flaky if she gets demoralized. Leaning Lee by submission, but passing on betting due to line movement.
Paul picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has not been dominant with her grappling recently. Lee has better striking and takedown defense. Paul expects Lee to win on volume and outpoint De La Rosa over three rounds.
The Guru picks Andrea Lee because she does damage well and is a more physical specimen with less wasted weight. He thinks her age (35) and lack of children give her anger and aggression, especially in the third round. He notes Montana De La Rosa has a decent grappling game but Lee did better on the feet against Macy Barber. He expects Lee to do better on the feet and win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 67 of 204 | 32% | 70 of 209 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 65 of 135 | 48% | 66 of 136 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 19 of 55 | 34% | 20 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 21 of 63 | 33% | 23 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 20 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 27 of 86 | 31% | 27 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 67 of 204 | 32% | 41 of 172 | 13 of 16 | 13 of 16 | 59 of 184 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 65 of 135 | 48% | 55 of 122 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 58 of 124 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 19 of 55 | 34% | 14 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 49 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 19 of 35 | 54% | 18 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 21 of 63 | 33% | 10 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 19 of 56 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 20 of 44 | 45% | 15 of 38 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 27 of 86 | 31% | 17 of 75 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 23 of 79 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 26 of 56 | 46% | 22 of 51 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 52 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Montana De La Rosa because she is a very good wrestler with a straightforward game plan of taking opponents down. He notes that JJ Aldrich is decent at everything but great at nothing, and that Aldrich was taken down in her last fight. He also mentions that Montana's losses are to quality fighters like Tatiana Suarez, while Aldrich has had poor performances. He placed a half-unit bet on Montana at +135, noting the line has since moved.
Big Brady leans toward Montana De La Rosa, noting that she has a grappling advantage over JJ Aldrich. He believes De La Rosa's wrestling is solid for the division and that she can control the fight on the ground. He mentions that Aldrich has been taken down by lesser grapplers like Liang Na, so De La Rosa should be able to secure takedowns. However, he admits the fight could be close if De La Rosa cannot get the takedown, and he preferred her at plus money. He predicts a decision win.
Cody picks De La Rosa, citing her toughness, wrestling, and ability to pressure. He notes that Aldrich has struggled against grapplers and that De La Rosa's tenacity will be key. He expects De La Rosa to make the fight dirty and win a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Montana De La Rosa, noting her toughness and improved hands. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich is the cleaner striker but thinks Montana can bully her and take her back. He mentions that the value has shifted to Aldrich now that Montana is favored, but his pure pick is Montana.
Lucrative James sees this as a close fight, likely 29-28 either way. He leans Montana De La Rosa because he has seen JJ Aldrich 'flake' a few times against physical opponents like Erin Blanchfield and Bara. He believes De La Rosa's physicality can cause Aldrich to falter, though he acknowledges it's a toss-up.
Aldrich took this fight on short notice, which suggests she believes she has an edge from training with De La Rosa in the past. She has good takedown defense and superior striking, and should be able to stuff takedowns or work back to her feet. De La Rosa is on a two-fight losing streak and relies on wrestling, but Aldrich has shown she can handle grapplers. Expect Aldrich to land more damage and win by decision.
Paul picks De La Rosa, agreeing with the line movement. He notes that Aldrich has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers, and that De La Rosa's wrestling and heart should be enough. He expects a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Montana De La Rosa over JJ Aldridge. He believes De La Rosa is underrated and notes her decent performance against Macy Barber and competitive rounds with Tatiana Suarez. He points to a common opponent, Ariane Lipski, who finished De La Rosa but later beat Aldridge, suggesting De La Rosa is stronger. He also mentions a slight reach advantage for De La Rosa and describes Aldridge as 'two hit and miss.'
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 10 of 13 | 76% | 37 of 43 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 5:45 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 26 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 28 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 11 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 10 of 13 | 76% | 0 of 1 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 7 of 8 | 87% | 0 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Suarez because De La Rosa will let her wrestle. He notes that De La Rosa is a competitive fighter but lacks strategy, and if Suarez is the same fighter, she will do Tatiana Suarez things for as long as she is able. Connor also mentions that De La Rosa's tight pocket boxing style gives opportunities for opponents to get in on her hips, which Suarez can exploit.
Zane picks Suarez, assuming she will look like her old self and dominate with wrestling. He notes that De La Rosa is a classic test fighter who will accept whatever fight her opponent wants, and if Suarez can bring physical dominance, she will win. However, he acknowledges major X-factors: Suarez hasn't fought in almost four years, has neck and knee injuries that could affect her wrestling, and her striking is poor. Still, he believes she will get the takedowns she wants.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 50 of 63 | 79% | 80 of 101 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 7:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 41 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 5:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 25 of 31 | 80% | 34 of 43 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 16 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:06 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:22 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 32 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 21 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 50 of 63 | 79% | 31 of 42 | 16 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 8 | 40 of 47 | 6 of 8 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 14 of 28 | 50% | 7 of 19 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 25 of 31 | 80% | 14 of 20 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 23 of 27 | 1 of 1 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 18 of 23 | 78% | 11 of 15 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 16 of 18 | 0 of 1 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 9 of 13 | 69% | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Maycee Barber but with zero bet, calling it a tough fight with many unknowns. He notes Barber has good striking and improved wrestling, but can break mentally. He says Montana is a pure wrestler who has improved her hands at Elevation. He is normally a sucker for wrestlers but is worried. He says his gut wants to pick Montana, but for now he goes with Barber to defend takedowns and win striking.
Big Brady picks Montana De La Rosa to win by decision, citing her grappling advantage and Barber's recent poor striking performances. He notes Barber has looked bad in recent fights, with low striking accuracy and a tendency to punch air. He thinks De La Rosa can mix in takedowns and control the fight. However, he has low confidence and says he will have zero dollars on the fight.
Cody likes Barber at -190, noting her physical strength and improvement. He acknowledges she's a slow starter but believes she can overpower De La Rosa. He points out De La Rosa's poor striking defense and tendency to get hit. He warns it could be a trap line but picks Barber.
The host picks Maycee Barber as his biggest bet of the night at 2 units (-181). He believes Barber is a better striker with better footwork and will be able to get up from takedowns and dish out damage on the feet. He is confident in this pick, calling it his most confident play.
Paul is not playing Barber at -190, calling it a dogger pass situation. He thinks Barber rarely shows up and that De La Rosa could control on the mat. He plans to stay away from a betting perspective unless weigh-ins change his mind.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 66 of 113 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 6:52 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 37 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 4 of 23 | 17% | 22 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 24 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 25 of 32 | 78% | 44 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:17 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 29 of 55 | 52% | 28 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 33 |
| Ariane da Silva | 11 of 24 | 45% | 5 of 15 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 4 of 23 | 17% | 3 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Ariane da Silva | 7 of 20 | 35% | 2 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 25 of 32 | 78% | 25 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 31 |
| Ariane da Silva | 4 of 4 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady is confident in De La Rosa, citing her wrestling background and BJJ black belt. He notes Lipski has poor takedown defense (45%) and was dominated on the mat by Antonina Shevchenko, a striker. He believes De La Rosa will take Lipski down at will and submit her, as 75% of her wins are by submission. He is surprised by public betting favoring Lipski.
Cody picks De La Rosa, agreeing with Paul. He notes Lipski's takedown defense issues and that De La Rosa has been scoring takedowns in recent fights. Cody thinks De La Rosa's wrestling will be the difference. He is confident but notes the price is steep.
Daniel picks Montana De La Rosa due to her massive edge on the ground, noting that Lipski has a huge hole in her ground game and lacks toughness. He acknowledges that Montana's stand-up is not impressive and she often hangs on for dear life, but believes she will get on top, take the back, and ground-and-pound for a finish. Daniel is uncomfortable with the -300 price but still picks Montana to win via submission or TKO on the mat.
De La Rosa has superior wrestling and takedown defense. Lipski has poor takedown defense and is a fish out of water on the ground. De La Rosa will grind out a decision or possibly get a late finish.
Paul picks De La Rosa, citing her wrestling base and takedown ability. He notes Lipski's poor takedown defense and that De La Rosa has been improving. Paul thinks De La Rosa can get the fight to the ground and control it. He acknowledges the price is high but sees a clear path to victory.
The Guru picks Montana De La Rosa, citing her size, youth, and experience against better competition. He thinks she has more options than Ariane Lipski, with good cardio, grappling, and stand-up. He expects a close fight but believes De La Rosa will win a 29-28 decision by grinding against the cage and landing total strikes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 30 of 72 | 41% | 107 of 156 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 9:12 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 52 of 80 | 65% | 111 of 142 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 9 of 32 | 28% | 27 of 50 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 44 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 45 of 61 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 3 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 35 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:01 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 49 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 30 of 72 | 41% | 19 of 56 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 52 of 80 | 65% | 28 of 53 | 22 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 20 of 40 | 29 of 36 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 9 of 32 | 28% | 6 of 26 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 17 of 28 | 60% | 6 of 15 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 13 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 11 of 24 | 45% | 7 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 16 of 26 | 61% | 10 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 4 | |
| 3 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 10 of 16 | 62% | 6 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 19 of 26 | 73% | 12 of 18 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The last women’s match of the night comes in the featured fight slot, as two submission specialist flyweights tangle. De La Rosa (11-6, 4-3 UFC) and Bueno Silva (7-1, 2-1 UFC) will undoubtedly look to tap out the other, who combine for 13 subs in their 18 wins, all under the watchful eye of referee Jerin Valel. A touch of gloves shows a sign of respect before the showcase begins. De La Rosa reaches out a jab and gets kicked in the calf, a theme for the evening. The American lets loose a one-two, and she follows with another and lands at the end of a right hand. Silva tries to clinch up, and De La Rosa pushes her off only to get kicked in the face. The clinch ensues again, where De La Rosa attacks a single and has her neck snagged from a defensive guillotine choke. De La Rosa transitions to a double and scores the takedown, but Silva walks her way back up with ease while De La Rosa takes her back. De La Rosa looks to trip her foe down but she cannot land it, and turns it into a single only to find herself in a choke attempt. Silva grabs the fence to stop a takedown, and Valel takes a point as Silva apologizes. Right after they touch gloves, De La Rosa shoots for a takedown in the open cage, and Silva stands her up and knees her foe in the chest several times. De La Rosa kicks the chest a few times, and then fires off a pair of crescent kicks that clip off Silva’s chin. The Brazilian eats a fierce one-two, and she marches into a clinch only to wind up defending a takedown attempt. Silva protects herself with several vicious elbows and knees, and De La Rosa is forced to back away. The American sticks out a jab, and she ducks down to take the fight down. Silva nearly grabs the fence again to stay upright, and De La Rosa looks to Valel. When there is nothing done about it, De La Rosa continues her grind against the cage. Silva turns her about but gets trapped against the fence again until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 De La Rosa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 9-9
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 De La Rosa
Round 2
The two women touch gloves, and De La Rosa reaches out with a pair of punches that land. Silva cracks De La Rosa with a head kick, and the American gathers her thoughts and tries to clinch up as Silva lands again. When Silva presses the pace, De La Rosa sells out for a takedown, only to fall to her back with butterfly hooks. Silva stands up to land a couple right hands, and De La Rosa boots her in the face with an upkick. De La Rosa threatens off her back with a triangle choke setup, but the Brazilian stands up to deliver some long punches to De La Rosa’s face. When Silva stands up, De La Rosa chops at her leg with low kicks on her side until Silva lets her back up. De La Rosa scores a side kick to the face, and she tries to counter an advancing Silva with a left hand. De La Rosa lets fly a head kick, and Silva blocks it but eats a left hand that follows. Silva replies with her own head kick, forcing De La Rosa to shoot in from a distance for a takedown. She gets stuffed, and Silva makes her pay with punches and knees. The clinch that comes from it leads to several nasty knees and elbows from Silva, and De La Rosa redoubles her effort to take the fight down. De La Rosa scoops up the leg and puts Silva on her back, where she takes the Brazilian’s back in a scramble. Silva twists and turns to get flat on her back, and De La Rosa takes full mount as she lands strikes from on top. De La Rosa uses arm-triangle choke control to keep her foe down, leading Silva to roll to her side and get hit in the side of the head. De La Rosa lines up the arm-triangle choke, and Silva has her arm trapped and is absorbing punishment. De La Rosa sets up the arm-triangle choke again, only to bail on it to land punches in mount to conclude the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 De La Rosa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 De La Rosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 De La Rosa
Round 3
There is a final glove touch, and De La Rosa once more lunges to throw the first strike. Silva sits down on a pair of big head kicks, and they snap the head back but do not hurt De La Rosa. When De La Rosa comes too close, they clinch up, and Silva starts up kneeing the body and unleashing heavy elbows on the inside. De La Rosa bullies her foe into the cage wall for a single leg takedown, but the Brazilian stands her up. The American ties up the leg to try to drag Silva down, and Silva counters with a close-range choke attempt that is unsuccessful. Silva uses elbows to open up De La Rosa’s face, but De La Rosa hits a takedown. Silva springs back up to her feet and tees off on De La Rosa with a few strikes as blood flows from De La Rosa’s nose and face. De La Rosa ties up her adversary on the fence, and her face is busted up from the strikes from the Brazilian. Silva backs away around the fencing to knee De La Rosa once more, and De La Rosa changes levels low for an unsuccessful takedown. Silva cracks De La Rosa with a few sharp elbows, and De La Rosa stays tight and working the body with a few punches, De La Rosa grabs a single leg and still gets elbowed in the face. De La Rosa tries to respond with a few short knees, all while keeping Silva’s left leg in the air. Silva gains space and marches down her opponent, but De La Rosa hits a takedown in the center of the cage. De La Rosa sits down in her opponent’s guard, as there are few seconds left in the fight. Silva throws a few elbows off her back, but De La Rosa drops down punches as the clock hits zero. The scorecards could be all over the map from this grueling fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva (29-27 De La Rosa)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva (28-28)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva (29-27 De La Rosa)
The Official Result
Montana De La Rosa vs. Mayra Bueno Silva is ruled a Majority Draw (27-28, 28-28, 28-28)
Big Brady picks the underdog Montana De La Rosa to grind out a decision. He notes that Silva is extremely hittable and flat-footed, absorbing 6.74 significant strikes per minute. He believes De La Rosa can take Silva down at will due to Silva's 71% takedown defense and that De La Rosa has multiple paths to victory: outlanding on the feet or using her wrestling. He acknowledges Silva's danger off her back but notes De La Rosa has only been submitted once in 17 fights. He disagrees with the line, thinking De La Rosa has a good chance.
Daniel Levi picks Mayra Bueno Silva, citing her significant power and damaging shots. He acknowledges her takedown defense issues but notes improvement in the Marina Moroz fight. He believes Montana De La Rosa's nose bleeds easily and that Bueno Silva's power will be the difference, potentially leading to a decision win by landing more impactful strikes.
De La Rosa has superior wrestling and should be able to take Bueno Silva down repeatedly. Bueno Silva is dangerous off her back with submissions, but De La Rosa has only been submitted by Mackenzie Dern. De La Rosa's cardio and top control are solid, and she has shown improved striking. Expect a decision win via control and ground and pound.
The MMA Guru picks Mayra Bueno Silva by submission, specifically an armbar in the first round. He highlights her superior submission skills, noting she has multiple armbar wins and a ninja choke in her career. He believes Montana De La Rosa has shown little improvement and will be outclassed on the ground.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 82 of 140 | 58% | 91 of 150 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 85 of 215 | 39% | 88 of 220 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 26 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 20 of 67 | 29% | 20 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 36 of 54 | 66% | 37 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 34 of 75 | 45% | 34 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 34 of 76 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 82 of 140 | 58% | 57 of 113 | 12 of 13 | 13 of 14 | 80 of 137 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 85 of 215 | 39% | 57 of 177 | 12 of 21 | 16 of 17 | 76 of 202 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 23 of 44 | 52% | 13 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 20 of 67 | 29% | 14 of 61 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 64 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 36 of 54 | 66% | 24 of 41 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 36 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 34 of 75 | 45% | 20 of 57 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 33 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 23 of 42 | 54% | 20 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 31 of 73 | 42% | 23 of 59 | 3 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 26 of 65 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Araújo, citing her striking advantage (4.51 sig strikes/min vs 2.3) and 100% takedown defense. He is concerned about her cardio slowing down, which could allow De La Rosa to take over late. He predicts a decision win for Araújo.
Daniel Levi leans with Viviane Araújo, citing her intensity, speed, and power. He notes that Araújo is more well-rounded and hits harder, but has cardio concerns and a chinny history. He believes if Araújo doesn't get choked out or give up her back, she will win. He acknowledges Montana De La Rosa's improvements and grappling, but feels Araújo's early offense will be decisive.
The host likes De La Rosa as a +150 underdog, citing her wrestling base, top pressure, and improving cardio. He questions Araújo's gas tank and ground game, noting she was controlled by Alexis Davis on the ground. He expects De La Rosa to mix in takedowns and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo, stating she is somewhat decent and has lost to better competition (Jessica Eye) compared to Montana De La Rosa's losses. He believes Araújo's training camp and overall skills will lead to a third-round finish by submission or TKO. He dismisses De La Rosa's recent win over Mara Romero Borella as not impressive.
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