Career Averages - Jeremy Stephens
Career Averages - Rafael dos Anjos
Jeremy Stephens - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 0 | 57 of 87 | 65% | 64 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 0 | 57 of 87 | 65% | 64 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 57 of 87 | 65% | 44 of 69 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 46 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 57 of 87 | 65% | 44 of 69 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 46 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-340), Stephens (+270)
Round 1
They may have nothing in common, but Green (34-17-1, 1 NC; 15-12-1, 1 NC UFC) and Stephens (29-22, 1 NC; 15-19, 1 NC UFC) are both grizzled, battle-tested veterans—not the type who would be saving Private Ryan, mind you, but gladiators who have faced a veritable who’s who in the sport over the years. Both men celebrate exactly 15 wins inside of the Octagon, and they would very much like one more. Referee Gary Copeland will supervise the proceedings of this catchweight affair, one outside of standard weight classes because Stephens biffed weight by four pounds. He gives up 30% of his purse to Green but no glove touch.
Green’s hands are down the moment the fight begins, and he already is chattering at Stephens trying to encourage him to come in at him. Green points at Stephens after Stephens whiffs. He sneaks in a right hand, and he circles to the side towards Stephens’ power side. Green takes a punch off the forehead and pauses, but it does not take long for him to get going again. Stephens misses by a mile with a haymaker, and Green is comfortable hanging out in boxing range. Stephens kicks his for in the front leg, and Green kicks him in the side and gets clinched. Stephens drills Green with a right hand on the break, and Green signals that it did not land flush. Green stabs a kick to the liver, and he pump-fakes his way in to draw reactions. Green staggers Stephens with a left hand, and he knows it and rifles off three more fists in a hurry. Green winds up with a body kick, but it smashes into Stephens’ groin. Stephens grimaces and Copeland calls time. Stephens looks to work out the pain, and Green immediately goes to apologize. Copeland issues a hard warning to Green, and Stephens is good to go after about 80 seconds. Green again apologizes, and Stephens is good with it as they resume. Stephens stalks Green down, and Green’s hands remain down while he is chirping at him. Green lands a right hand and a kick to the body, and he points at Stephens’ stomach and leaps at him to hit a quick double and put Stephens on his back.
Green starts bombing on Stephens when on top, unleashing a long stream of punches and elbows while sitting on his leg in a quasi-half guard. Green keeps thumping up Stephens with his free left hand, and Stephens doubles up his wrist control on Green’s left arm for a straight armlock or kimura. He twists it to become a kimura to go for a sweep, and Green fights it off and steps into mount to batter Stephens with ground-and-pound.
Green transitions into a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye when Stephens turns, and he rolls to the back to lock it down. Green only has one hook in as he wrenches on the submission, but it is so complete that he does not need the other. Stephens briefly considers going out on his shield but that would be silly. Stephens gives up
, and it is not so much a train that ran him over as it is the Polar Express, with this one-sided shellacking ending with a mean choke. Falling short again, Stephens removes his gloves and may have left him in the center of the Octagon to say farewell to the sport. It is hard to tell with the promotion wholly focused on the triumphant Green.
The Official Result
King Green def. Jeremy Stephens R1 4:20 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks King Green, noting he is the better overall fighter and has shown wrestling in his last fight. He acknowledges concerns about the judges not liking his style and that Jeremy Stephens is always dangerous, but believes Green wins the majority of the time.
Angelo picks King Green, stating he is the better striker and can shoot takedowns if needed. He notes Green's volume and defense, and that Stephens is tough but can be taken down. He is surprised by the 3-to-1 odds and thinks they are too wide for a 39-year-old. He says he will probably leave the bet alone.
Big Brady picks King Green, though he admits he can't lay the -325 odds. He notes Green has looked good recently, while Stephens hasn't won in years and looks done. Brady expects Green to outpoint Stephens, mixing in wrestling if needed, and win a decision. He acknowledges Stephens could knock Green out, but considers that a hot take.
Cody picks Green, citing his superior skills and Stephens' decline. He notes Green's volume and movement, and thinks Stephens is past his prime and not a threat. Cody expects Green to win by decision or submission, but is wary of the minus 400 price.
Connor picks Green, agreeing with Zane. He notes Green is slicker on the feet with better footwork, though his reaction times have slowed. Connor points out that Stephens' recent KO losses are to real sluggers, and Green is not that. He expects Green to make Stephens chase and overthrow, and use takedowns to slow him down.
Daniel picks Green, citing his slick striking, speed, and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Stephens' knockout power but believes Green is too slick and will avoid getting caught. Daniel expects Green to win via output or submission.
The host passes on this fight. He favors Green but considers the odds too wide (1.30). He notes Green's inconsistency and poor fight IQ, and Stephens' power. He mentions the +3.5 fight spread on Stephens as interesting but decides to keep money safe.
Predicted method: Decision. Green is the younger, more active fighter with superior striking volume (6.38 SLpM) and accuracy (53%) compared to Stephens, who is 38 and has lost four straight. Stephens has power but is hittable (3.14 SApM) and has poor takedown defense (62%). Green's 72% takedown defense should keep the fight standing, where he can outwork Stephens with combinations and movement. Stephens' only path is an early KO, but Green's durability and pace should carry him to a clear decision or late stoppage.
Jacob is confident in King Green, citing that Jeremy Stephens is 1-8 in his last nine fights and hasn't had a knockout since 2018. He believes Green's wrestling and smarter fighting style will be too much, and that Stephens looked clueless on the ground against Mason Jones.
Lucrative James confidently picks King Green because he sees Jeremy Stephens as a knockout-or-bust fighter who is 1-8 in his last nine MMA fights. He believes Green's boxing and volume will overwhelm Stephens, who lacks the cardio and durability to win a decision. He predicts Green wins by decision, noting Stephens' toughness but inability to keep up with Green's pace.
The host picks Green, citing his striking clinic and ability to outbox Stephens. He notes that Stephens lost a boxing match to Chris Avila, which indicates Green should dominate on the feet. He expects Green to win by decision, though he acknowledges Stephens' power and chin. He may look at the decision prop.
Paul picks Green, citing his technical striking and Stephens' lack of recent success. He thinks Green's volume and movement will overwhelm Stephens, who is fighting for a payday. Paul expects Green to win by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Bobby Green, expecting him to pick apart Jeremy Stephens with boxing. He notes Green's recent wins over Daniel Zellhuber and close fight with Fiziev. He thinks Stephens is past his prime and Green will mix in takedowns. He predicts a decision win, though he initially says TKO then corrects to decision.
Zane picks Green confidently, citing his speed, length, and footwork advantage over the older Stephens. He notes Stephens has lost his kicking and wrestling, and is no longer a knockout artist. Zane believes Green can use reactive takedowns like against Zell Hoover to neutralize Stephens. He sees it as a slow-down version of Green's win over Nasrud Hockbrost.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 42 of 108 | 38% | 54 of 126 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Mason Jones | 0 | 81 of 231 | 35% | 104 of 261 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 6:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 21 of 47 | 44% | 24 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mason Jones | 0 | 39 of 103 | 37% | 41 of 108 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 19 of 55 | 34% | 24 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Mason Jones | 0 | 37 of 115 | 32% | 43 of 123 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 3 | Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mason Jones | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 20 of 30 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Stephens | 42 of 108 | 38% | 19 of 79 | 7 of 11 | 16 of 18 | 41 of 105 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Mason Jones | 81 of 231 | 35% | 50 of 188 | 19 of 28 | 12 of 15 | 74 of 220 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremy Stephens | 21 of 47 | 44% | 6 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 12 of 13 | 20 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mason Jones | 39 of 103 | 37% | 22 of 80 | 9 of 13 | 8 of 10 | 36 of 100 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jeremy Stephens | 19 of 55 | 34% | 12 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mason Jones | 37 of 115 | 32% | 25 of 98 | 9 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 35 of 112 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jeremy Stephens | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mason Jones | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jones (-600), Stephens (+440)
Round 1
Stephens enters to massive pop from his hometown crowd, and hopes to give them something to keep cheering about against fellow returnee Jones. Mike Beltran draws his first referee assignment of the evening, and the lightweights go to work in matchin orthodox stances. Stephens is throwing hooks with mean intentions right away, but he scores first with a hard leg kick. Jones is composed, however, moving laterally and tagging “Lil Heathen” with a variety of fast kicks from both sides. Jones goes upstairs and a head kick glances off Stephens’ guard. Jones connects with a body kick, then a spinning back kick to the head. None of them have landed with a ton of impact, but the speed and accuracy are there. Stephens catches Jones with a hard right hand, which leaves a visible swelling under the Welshman’s eye. They clinch, and Stephens fires off a couple of murderous-looking uppercuts that have Jones backing away hastily. Jones steps back in and lands an uppercut of his own. Stephens wades forward, and his punches look to have slowed just a bit. Jones takes Stephens’ back standing, hoists him with a rear waistlock and deposits him on the canvas. Stephens scrambles back up, but Jones elevates him for an easy mat return. Jones stays on Stephens’ back this time, and with under 30 seconds to go he tries a rear-naked choke. It’s wrapped up but not under the chin, and time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jones
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jones
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jones
Round 2
Jones and Stephens meet in the center of the cage and flurry with punches. Stephens lands a good one and the crowd erupts. Jones fires back and they clinch. Stephens lands a nice uppercut in close. Jones tags Stephens with a glancing head kick and just slips a right hook coming back his way. Stephens throws another right, and Jones has just barely escaped disaster from that punch several times already in this fight. Jones lands a flying knee, followed by a level elbow, and Stephens is bleeding from the hairline. Stephens throws a salvo of punches, several of which connect, and Jones loses his mouthguard. Jones is bleeding from the face as well. The crowd is deafening as the two men swing away in phone-booth range. Jones lands a spinning back kick to the head, and Stephens steps in to land a clean counter punch. Stephens throws a straight to the body that hurts Jones and has him backing off. Stephens surges forward and takes Jones’ back standing. Jones spins to face his opponent and hauls Stephens to his knees, lands briefly in mount, then jumps on his back as he turns away. Short time left in the round once again, and once again the horn sounds with Jones in back control.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jones
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jones
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jones
Round 3
The Des Moines crowd roars as Stephens and Jones come out for the final frame, and they pop further when Stephens lands a nice right hand in the opening exchange. Jones staves off further punishment—and quiets the arena—by changing levels for an easy takedown against the cage. Jones lands in Stephens’ guard, but Stephens gets back to his feet. Jones drags Stephens back down, spins through north-south, and grabs Stephens’ left arm with a two-on-one, looking to isolate the limb for an armbar. Stephens locks his hands and defends, with Jones kneeling over his head and trying to wrench the arm out. Jones gives up on the armbar and moves to Stephens’ back. Stephens explodes to his feet and Jones drags him back down, to scattered boos from the crowd. Jones laces the legs of the seated Iowan at the base of the fence, and is close to landing in full mount. Stephens gets back to this feet yet again, and Jones yet again responds by "dragon" his man back to the ground. Under a minute left to go and Jones gets back control, then takes mount as Stephens spins around. The final horn sounds with Jones in full mount near the cage and the Des Moines crowd sounding off in discontent.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jones (30-27 Jones)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jones (30-27 Jones)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jones (30-27 Jones)
The Official Result
Mason Jones def. Jeremy Stephens via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo expects Mason Jones to pick apart Jeremy Stephens with superior boxing and takedowns. He notes that Stephens is exciting but slower and will likely be taken down multiple times. He does not predict a finish but believes Jones will win a clear decision.
Big Brady is very confident in Mason Jones, calling it a mismatch. He highlights Jones's well-rounded skills: BJJ black belt, great striking, volume, power, and toughness. Stephens hasn't fought in MMA since 2022, is 38, and looked bad recently. Brady expects Jones to take Stephens down and finish him quickly, predicting a first-round submission. He notes that if Jones stands and bangs, it gives Stephens a puncher's chance, but still favors Jones.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Jones's aggression and clinch wrestling will be too much for Stephens. He compares Stephens's decline to his loss to Clay Collard, where aggression wore him down. Connor believes Jones can take Stephens down and keep him there, as Stephens's ground instincts are poor. He calls it a fight that feels like PFL filler but expects Jones to win.
Jones is younger and closer to his prime. He will mix up his game to wear down the 39-year-old Stephens and eventually secure a dominant position for a ground-and-pound TKO or submission.
The MMA Guru picks Mason Jones, citing his well-roundedness, wrestling, and granite chin. He believes Jeremy Stephens is too old and has been focusing on BKFC and boxing, so his grappling will be rusty. He predicts Jones will win by TKO on the ground, possibly after using his taekwondo to back Stephens up. He thinks Jones should be a 3-to-1 favorite, not -575.
Zane picks Jones, emphasizing that Stephens has been a lost cause in MMA for years, with declining foot speed and takedown defense. He notes that Jones is an aggressive brawler who pressures well and has never been knocked out. Zane points out that Stephens hasn't knocked anyone out in MMA since 2018 and is susceptible to pressure and wrestling. He believes Jones will swarm Stephens and wear him down.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The Octagon experience between Stephens (28-18, 1 NC; 15-17, 1 NC UFC) and Gamrot (18-1, 1 NC; 1-1 UFC) is a chasm of 31 bouts, although Gamrot did serve as a two-division KSW champion prior to joining the UFC in 2020. The lightweights will toe the line before referee Mike Beltran, who knows a firefight may erupt before his very eyes. The intensity is palpable as there is no touch of gloves, and instead the two men race to the center of the cage to establish dominance. Gamrot shoots in low for a leg to take Stephens down, and after the Iowan hops around, Gamrot quickly puts him on his back. Stephens rolls to his side, and Gamrot threatens with a kimura but he winds up in kimura danger of his own.
Gamrot spins around and takes an inverted triangle position, and he resecures the two-on-one wrist control to wrench the kimura. “Gamer” torques the arm behind Stephens’ back with everything he has, and Stephens has no choice to tap out lest his shoulder get ripped to shreds.
What an impressive performance for the Polish fighter, who becomes the first man to tap out “Lil Heathen” since Joe Lauzon in 2009 at UFC Fight Night 17.
The Official Result
Mateusz Gamrot def. Jeremy Stephens R1 1:05 via Submission (Kimura)
Cody is high on Mateusz Gamrot, praising his well-rounded skills and experience in KSW. He believes Gamrot's grappling and cardio will wear down Jeremy Stephens, who is moving up to lightweight. Cody expects Gamrot to win by decision, noting that Stephens' power is a threat but Gamrot's relentless pressure and takedowns should prevail.
Paul is not a believer in Mateusz Gamrot, pointing out his inability to maintain top control and his tendency to slow down. He thinks Jeremy Stephens has a puncher's chance but is not confident enough to pick either fighter. He decides to pass on betting this fight, calling it a 'dogger pass' situation.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 57 of 104 | 54% | 57 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 1 | 52 of 113 | 46% | 52 of 113 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 40 of 64 | 62% | 40 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 26 of 66 | 39% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 17 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 1 | 26 of 47 | 55% | 26 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Kattar | 57 of 104 | 54% | 24 of 66 | 9 of 12 | 24 of 26 | 56 of 103 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 52 of 113 | 46% | 32 of 92 | 12 of 13 | 8 of 8 | 47 of 103 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calvin Kattar | 40 of 64 | 62% | 16 of 36 | 7 of 10 | 17 of 18 | 40 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 26 of 66 | 39% | 15 of 54 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 26 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Calvin Kattar | 17 of 40 | 42% | 8 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 16 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 26 of 47 | 55% | 17 of 38 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
On any other card, this matchup between Stephens (28-17, 1 NC; 15-16, 1 NC UFC) and Kattar (20-4, 4-2 UFC) would be near the top of the billing, which speaks to the depth of UFC 249. This potential all-action catchweight bout -- Stephens missed weight by 4.5 pounds -- will be officiated by referee Jason Herzog, and the two strikers do not touch gloves and decided to start engaging early. Stephens leads off with a flurry, and he is loading up on shots right out of the gate. A low kick from Stephens goes a little low, and he swings with reckless abandon as Kattar shells up. Stephens is landing frequently with leg kicks to both sides, although Kattar finally fires back at him. Three punches from Kattar surprise Stephens, but “Lil’ Heathen” throws bombs back at him. “The Boston Finisher” strings together a few punches, and Stephens is having none of it as he comes right back at him. A loud leg kick from Stephens lands, and Kattar replies with a similar kick. Both men whiff with big hooks, and Stephens pursues the lead leg of the Boston-based fighter with kicks. They trade leg kicks, but Stephens’ appears to be more impactful as Kattar’s lead leg is beginning to welt up a little. Two powerful punches from Kattar give his opponent pause, but Stephens gathers himself and throws right back. Two over the top are followed by one powerful shot to the body from Kattar, and Stephens races after him with a leg kick that makes Kattar wince. Stephens chains together punches and leg kicks, and Kattar has been forced to change stances already. A big right from Kattar catches Stephens flush, and the Alliance MMA fighter shakes it out and tries blast him with a counter right. Both throw with all they have to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stephens
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stephens
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Stephens
Round 2
Stephens opens up aggressively with a bevy of punches and a leg kick. The kick is forcing Kattar to lift his leg up in anticipation of getting kicked, and also making the Bostonian change stances. Stephens charges in to unload with some shots, but Kattar counters him on the way in and works the lead leg too. Stephens is now forced to switch stances from the damage, and they are swinging with malicious intent. Stephens stings him with a right that splits the guard, and continues the offense with another two thudding leg kicks. Kattar jabs to the body, and puts together a combination that wobbles Stephens. Kattar goes to the body and the head to keep Stephens guessing, and Stephens clinches up to land an elbow on the inside. They separate, and Stephens aims at that lead leg again. Kattar is committing to big right hands now, and they are getting Stephens’ attention.
Kattar winds up with a monster elbow that drills Stephens on the chin, and “Lil’ Heathen” goes down hard. Kattar chases after him to unleash some relentless ground-and-pound, and concludes with a few elbows that slice Stephens’ forehead wide open.
Herzog steps in to save a badly damaged Stephens, who is in a bad way and is positively gushing blood. This is a massive win for Kattar, and he does so with style points.
The Official Result
Calvin Kattar def. Jeremy Stephens R2 2:42 via KO (Elbows and Punches)
Big Brady picks Calvin Kattar, calling him the far better boxer and expecting him to dominate. He believes Kattar's takedown defense will hold up and that he will either put on a three-round clinic or finish Stephens, predicting a third-round knockout. He notes Stephens' recent losses and Kattar's never been knocked out.
Daniel Levi picks Calvin Kattar, stating he is sharper, faster, and more athletic than Stephens. He notes that Kattar likes to stand in the pocket, which gives Stephens a chance, but believes Kattar's boxing is superior. Levi thinks Kattar will pop him with the jab and mix in leg kicks, and that Stephens is too slow to implement a leg kick gameplan.
Matt picks Stephens as an underdog, emphasizing his leg kicks and power. He notes Kattar's vulnerability to leg kicks and believes Stephens can exploit that to set up his hands. He sees value at plus money and expects a decision or late finish, though he acknowledges Kattar's boxing advantage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 96 of 170 | 56% | 136 of 213 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:10 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 50 of 95 | 52% | 99 of 156 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 5:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 39 of 70 | 55% | 39 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 41 of 73 | 56% | 62 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 28 of 49 | 57% | 67 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 96 of 170 | 56% | 65 of 127 | 14 of 23 | 17 of 20 | 54 of 100 | 6 of 10 | 36 of 60 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 50 of 95 | 52% | 35 of 76 | 10 of 10 | 5 of 9 | 19 of 51 | 6 of 11 | 25 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 39 of 70 | 55% | 18 of 43 | 9 of 13 | 12 of 14 | 34 of 61 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 11 of 24 | 45% | 3 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 41 of 73 | 56% | 37 of 67 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 58 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 6 of 7 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 16 of 27 | 59% | 10 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 28 of 49 | 57% | 23 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 26 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 96 of 170 | 56% | 136 of 213 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:10 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 50 of 95 | 52% | 99 of 156 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 5:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 39 of 70 | 55% | 39 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 41 of 73 | 56% | 62 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 28 of 49 | 57% | 67 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 96 of 170 | 56% | 65 of 127 | 14 of 23 | 17 of 20 | 54 of 100 | 6 of 10 | 36 of 60 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 50 of 95 | 52% | 35 of 76 | 10 of 10 | 5 of 9 | 19 of 51 | 6 of 11 | 25 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 39 of 70 | 55% | 18 of 43 | 9 of 13 | 12 of 14 | 34 of 61 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 11 of 24 | 45% | 3 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 41 of 73 | 56% | 37 of 67 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 58 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 6 of 7 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 16 of 27 | 59% | 10 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 28 of 49 | 57% | 23 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 26 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
We are now treated to a rematch of the main event from UFC Mexico City in September, which tragically ended due to an eye poke within 15 seconds. Rodriguez (12-2, 1 NC; 7-1, 1 NC UFC) is ready to run it back with Stephens (28-16, 1 NC; 16-15, 1 NC UFC), and tensions are high. Trying to keep a lid on this featherweight tilt is referee Kevin MacDonald. There is no touch of the gloves of any kind, as Rodriguez leaps through the air with a flying head kick that clanks off the dome of Stephens. Stephens wings back some angry punches, and the two trade for a moment with bad intentions. Rodriguez clinches up and pushes Stephens against the cage, and Stephens throws a knee to the body, so Rodriguez retaliates with one of his own. The crowd has started to chant "U.S.A." to root on their home country fighter, and as they break apart, Rodriguez lands a powerful elbows over the top. "El Pantera" throws a wild spinning wheel kick that is nowhere near the mark, but he regains position and throws several heavy kicks on both legs. A few body kicks are finding their home on Stephens' midsection, and they are adding up quick. Stephens fires back with everything he has in the form of right hands, but Rodriguez keeps his distance with effective kicks. Another body kick digs in for Rodriguez, and Stephens has lowered his right hand to defend this specific attack. Stephens ducks down possibly for a takedown, but after a little clinch fighting, the two separate. Rodriguez chooses to crash forward into the clinch again, landing a knee up the middle to get there. As Rodriguez slaps a low kick, Stephens rips a right hand to the body of his opponent. The Mexican pulls off a jumping switch kick that catches Stephens flush, but Stephens walks through it. As Stephens presses forward, Rodriguez drops him with a left jab, but cannot take advantage of his grounded adversary as Stephens returns to his feet. Two more kicks get off from Rodriguez, as Stephens chases him around and motions an obscene gesture to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
Rodriguez opens up round two with a spinning kick, but Stephens is able to get up his guard on time. The Mexican fighter then whips a head kick up top, but it is the body kick that follows that does serious damage and makes Stephens buckle over. As Stephens stumbles backwards, Rodriguez swarms him with punches, throwing everything he has into his punches. Stephens defends himself by pursuing a takedown, but Rodriguez is relentless with punches. "Lil' Heathen" is able to survive the assault by going after low takedowns, but Rodriguez walks over it and lands long punches. On his back, Stephens eats wild hammerfists but begins to throw punches while on his back. Rodriguez latches on a brabo choke, and Stephens is trying to roll out of it and survives the submission attempt but is still in grave danger. With pure willpower, Stephens stands back up and unleashes the hardest punches he can possibly throw on Rodriguez. Rodriguez dodges and weaves out of the way of most of these shots, and as Rodriguez catches Stephens to the body again with a kick, Stephens wraps Rodriguez and tries to take him down. Rodriguez rolls through to try to get out of the position but ends up on his back, with Stephens on top raining down punches. El Pantera throws up his legs to search for a triangle choke, and Stephens is not out of the woods yet. In more of a leg scissor choke than a triangle, Stephens breaks the posture and grinds his elbow on his opponent's face as Rodriguez is warned for grabbing the cage. Rodriguez gradually stands up, and Stephens punishes him with a salvo of punches. The Mexican eats several more shots as he finally gets to his feet, and whips a body kick out that backs away Stephens as this crazy round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
Stephens comes out threatening with big shots, and as Rodriguez throws a kick out to back him off, he catches Stephens in the groin with a kick. Stephens calls the ref off so that he can charge at Rodriguez, and he slings looping shots that score on Rodriguez and get the crowd amped up. Rodriguez tries to keep his distance with leg kicks, and Stephens catches him on the end of a right hand that Rodriguez wears well. Suddenly, Stephens drops for a double leg takedown and gets Rodriguez down, and although Rodriguez gets back up, Stephens makes sure to score with several punches on his way up. The two separate, but not for long, as Stephens rushes in to secure another takedown and lands in Rodriguez' guard. Rodriguez attempts to utilize a rubber guard to get hold of Stephens' neck, but Stephens pushes the leg off and tries to get his ground-and-pound going. It is quite unfortunate that this fight is only three rounds instead of five, as Stephens sits on top in half guard while throwing punches from above. Stephens continues to mount offense on top in the form of numerous left hands, and the American then decides to drop down elbows that get heavier the more he throws. A huge left hand from Stephens scores as he stands up and dives down to land it, and after some more thudding strikes, the fight is now over. In a display of great sportsmanship, the two embrace, both thrilled with their performances.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Rodriguez)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Stephens (28-28 Draw)
The Official Result
Yair Rodriguez def. Jeremy Stephens via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zabit Magomedsharipov | 0 | 41 of 121 | 33% | 45 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 70 of 129 | 54% | 83 of 146 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zabit Magomedsharipov | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Zabit Magomedsharipov | 0 | 6 of 25 | 24% | 10 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 39 of 58 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 | |
| 3 | Zabit Magomedsharipov | 0 | 25 of 70 | 35% | 25 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 28 of 57 | 49% | 28 of 57 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zabit Magomedsharipov | 41 of 121 | 33% | 20 of 92 | 11 of 16 | 10 of 13 | 41 of 121 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 70 of 129 | 54% | 43 of 95 | 12 of 17 | 15 of 17 | 60 of 117 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zabit Magomedsharipov | 10 of 26 | 38% | 2 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 16 of 31 | 51% | 6 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Zabit Magomedsharipov | 6 of 25 | 24% | 3 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 26 of 41 | 63% | 18 of 30 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 11 | |
| 3 | Zabit Magomedsharipov | 25 of 70 | 35% | 15 of 57 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 28 of 57 | 49% | 19 of 46 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The last preliminary bout is a very intriguing featherweight bout between veteran Jeremy Stephens and rising prospect Zabit Magomedsharipov. The referee in charge of this fight is Mark Smith. Magomedsharipov lands a low kick as Stephens moves forward. He clips him with a long straight left but Stephens returns fire with a low kick of his own. Magomedsharipov lands another low kick. He then lands a heavy body kick on the torso of Stephens, who returns fire with another low kick. Stephens looks to land a right hook to the body but Magomedsharipov counters with a left hook of his own. Magomedsharipov lands a nasty low kick that has the crowd gasping at the brutal sound of it landing. Stephens continues to move forward but Magomedsharipov is having good success countering as he moves closer. Magomedsharipov grabs the fence and lands a side kick on Stephens and the referee warns him not to grab the cage. Magomedsharipov lands a hard straight left as Stephens walks towards him then lands a brutal low kick to the groin of Stephens. The referee calls timeout, but Stephens is ok and the fight resumes. Off the break Magomedshairpov looks to land a Showtime kick off the cage. He doesn’t land it but he does land a really hard kick to the body of Stephens. The round is soon over.
Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Magomedsharipov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedsharipov
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Magomedsharipov
Round 2
Round two begins. Stephens lands a hard low kick and continues to march forward. The referee warns Magomedsharipov not to land any more low blows on Stephens after a brief scare. Magomedsharipov just misses a rare hook kick. Instead, he lands a chopping low kick. Stephens returns with a hard left hook of his own. Magomedsharipov with a straight left down the pipe. Stephens lands a low kick of his own and then pushes forward and lands a straight right to the head of Magomedsharipov. That may have been the best strike of the fight for him. Magomedsharipov lands a brutal left hook to the body of Stephens. Magomedsharipov gets in close and grabs a single leg and then switches to a body lock takedown and gets Stephens to the mat. Stephens is able to get up but Magomedsharipov is pushing him against the fence and working hard to take the back of Stephens. He has one hook in now and Stephens could be in trouble. Magomedsharipov now has back mount with two hooks in. He lands a hard elbow to the back of the head of Stephens and the referee warns him not to do that. Magomedsharipov has over a minute to work and get the submission now and he’s in a great position to do so. Magomedsharipov lands a hard elbow that hurts Stephens and causes him to roll over. Magomedsharipov is now in full mount and he switches to back control now with two hooks in. Magomedsharipov lands some hard elbows from the back and rolls Stephens over. The 10-second clapper signals and the round is over but Magomedsharipov shoves him in the face after the final horn and the referee is forced to separate the fighters.
Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Magomedsharipov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedsharipov
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Magomedsharipov
Round 3
It’s now round three and realistically Stephens needs a finish if he wants to get his hand raised. Like the first two rounds, Stephens is the one moving forward but Magomedsharipov continues to move side-to-side and evade the strikes of Stephens. Magomedsharipov lands another hard kick to the body, and now a low kick. Stephens tries to land a right hook but Magomedsharipov moves away once again. Stephens has Magomedshairpov against the fence and lands a straight right that has the crowd buzzing for a second. But once again Magomedsharipov moves away from danger. Jab from the Russian. Stephens returns with a left hook and Magomedsharipov circles away. Stephens lands a right hook behind his ear. Magomedsharipov dives down for an ankle pick but Stephens hits him with a clubbing right hand and Magomedsharipov backs up. Stephens is finally having some success and is touching the chin of Magomedsharipov with his hands with just a minute left in the fight. Magomedsharipov returns fire with a left hook. Now they are standing in the center of the Octagon and trading short punches. Magomedsharipov lands two hard left hooks that really hurt Stephens. He then changes levels and goes for double leg takedown. Stephens is able to stuff it and after a last-second flying head kick attempt by Magomedsharipov the round and fight are now over.
Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Magomedsharipov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Magomedsharipov)
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Magomedsharipov)
The Official Result
Zabit Magomedsharipov def. Jeremy Stephens via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 1 | 29 of 63 | 46% | 29 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 20 of 60 | 33% | 20 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 1 | 29 of 63 | 46% | 29 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 20 of 60 | 33% | 20 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 29 of 63 | 46% | 21 of 55 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 21 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 20 of 60 | 33% | 16 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 52 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 29 of 63 | 46% | 21 of 55 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 21 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 20 of 60 | 33% | 16 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 52 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Stephens blocks an Aldo high kick with his gloves, then fires a right high kick of his own and bounces it off the Brazilian's shoulder. Aldo lands his first low kicks of the bout as they enter the second minute, with Stephens pressing forward, looking to close the gap. Stephens clinches up and throws a knee to the body, then backs up and lands a leg kick of his own. Aldo catches Stephens rushing forward and plunks him with a counter uppercut. Stephens keeps coming, though, and runs "Scarface" against the fence with a heavy barrage of punches. Aldo eats a point-blank uppercut and doesn't budge; in fact, the former champion walks off the fence and backs up Stephens with a combination. Stephens, now sporting some redness and swelling under his right eye, whiffs on a spinning backfist as Aldo takes a turn coming forward. Aldo misses with a one-two but splits the guard of Stephens with a straight right hand. Stephens tries to retaliate and
gets blown up with a vicious left hand to the liver. Stephens hits the deck and Aldo pounces, trying to pound out the Alliance MMA product.
Stephens is trapped on his right side with Aldo straddling him, dropping punches. Stephens gets caught in an unfortunate position with his head flat on the canvas, and after a few clean hammerfists from Aldo, referee Yves Lavigne decides to stop the fight. Aldo bursts into tears as he's swarmed by his corner, the former 145-pound king collecting his first win in over two years.
The Official Result
Jose Aldo def. Jeremy Stephens via TKO (Punches) R1 4:19
Rafael dos Anjos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 18 of 30 | 60% | 12 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 4 of 13 | 30% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 18 of 30 | 60% | 12 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 4 of 13 | 30% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Geoff Neal but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Neal is younger, has good takedown defense and hands, and should win if the fight stays standing. However, he acknowledges RDA could get takedowns and grind out a decision. He will leave this fight alone due to the risk.
Big Brady strongly favors Neal, calling it a bad matchup for RDA. He notes that RDA struggles at welterweight against bigger guys and that Neal has elite takedown defense (87%). He believes Neal is the much better striker with more power and that RDA won't be able to take him down. He predicts Neal wins by decision, stuffing takedowns and doing better work on the feet.
Cody leans toward Rafael dos Anjos as an underdog, noting that RDA's wrestling and cardio could neutralize Neal's striking. He points out that Neal has struggled against wrestlers like Neil Magny, and that RDA's takedown-heavy approach could frustrate Neal. However, Cody is hesitant because RDA is 40 and has lost to superior grapplers. He suggests a small play or pass.
Connor picks Neal, agreeing that RDA at welterweight is not the same bully. He notes that RDA's game relies on being a physical bully, which he can't do at welterweight, and that Neal is capable of putting together moments of offense that win rounds. Connor also mentions that RDA is almost 40 and has a lot of mileage.
Daniel Vreeland picks Geoff Neal to win, citing significant advantages in size, speed, and youth. He notes that Neal has faced much larger opponents recently and that RDA is a smaller fighter who may struggle with Neal's reach and takedown defense. Vreeland acknowledges Neal's inconsistency but believes this is a favorable matchup.
Daniel Vreeland picks Neal, citing his size, youth, and recent competition against top welterweights. He notes that RDA's wrestling has dropped off significantly, giving up 19 takedowns in his last two fights. Vreeland believes Neal's speed and game plan will be too much for the aging RDA.
Jeff Fox also picks Neal, emphasizing RDA's declining wrestling. He notes that Neal has sneaky good wrestling and that RDA's takedown defense has worsened. Fox expects Neal to be faster on the feet and implement a better game plan.
Welterweight is not the best weight class for dos Anjos, and Neal should stop his takedowns and utilize his striking advantage. It wouldn't surprise me if Neal knocks dos Anjos out, but I lean with Neal winning on the scorecards.
Paul picks Geoff Neal, believing his reach and boxing will keep the fight standing. He notes that RDA's wrestling has not been as effective at welterweight against bigger opponents. Paul thinks Neal can stuff takedowns and use his length to outpoint RDA. He is not highly confident but leans Neal.
The Guru picks Geoff Neal by TKO in the second round, arguing that Rafael dos Anjos at 39 is outmatched physically. He notes Neal's size, power, and takedown defense (citing the Belal Muhammad fight) will be too much for RDA. He believes RDA's only path is to brawl in the pocket, which favors Neal. The Guru predicts a vicious finish, possibly ending RDA's career.
Zane picks Neal because RDA at welterweight is not the same relentless pressure fighter he was at lightweight; he's more reluctant to apply pressure and gets hit harder. Neal is a puncher who can keep his output up and win rounds, even if he gets stalled for one. Zane notes that RDA's wrestling is deteriorating and he's almost 40.
Zane clearly favored Neal, describing the fight as a 'sad days fight' for RDA. He noted that RDA's game of physical bullying and pressure doesn't work at welterweight because guys are too big and hit too hard. Zane pointed out that RDA got crushed by the first shot and blew out his knee, calling it an old man way to lose. He praised Neal's performance but remains skeptical about Neal's title prospects.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 57 of 102 | 55% | 111 of 163 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 7:01 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 36 of 78 | 46% | 39 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 40 of 61 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 28 of 36 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 43 of 66 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 57 of 102 | 55% | 48 of 90 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 88 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 36 of 78 | 46% | 24 of 61 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 26 of 67 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 19 of 34 | 55% | 17 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 11 of 19 | 57% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 10 of 18 | 55% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 12 of 25 | 48% | 9 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Mateusz Gamrot | 28 of 50 | 56% | 25 of 45 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 13 of 34 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He believes RDA has no wrestling defense and will spend much of the fight on his back. He thinks Gamrot will shoot takedowns, grind, and win. He also mentions over 2.5 rounds as a good bet.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes that RDA is 39 and has struggled with wrestling, and that Gamrot has the cardio to shoot many takedowns. He expects the striking to be competitive, but Gamrot's takedowns will seal each round.
Cody thinks RDA is being priced as if he's completely washed, but he believes RDA is better at 155 and that the Luque loss was due to size. He thinks RDA's striking and jiu-jitsu make him competitive, and at plus money, he's worth a look.
Daniel is confident Gamrot will win, citing his wrestling and low single takedowns. He notes RDA was outwrestled by Vicente Luque, who is not known for offensive wrestling, and expects Gamrot to dominate on the ground. However, he dislikes the minus 450 price and says he would only bet if the price improves.
Gamrot is a high-level wrestler who should be too strong, fast, and young for the aging dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has shown declining takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Vicente Luque where he was controlled for 11 minutes. Gamrot will likely get the fight to the ground and grind on dos Anjos, wearing him down. I expect Gamrot to win a decision, as finishing a durable veteran like dos Anjos is tough. The prop 'Gamrot by decision' is the best way to attack this fight without taking too much chalk.
Paul disagrees, pointing out that RDA has historically struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down repeatedly. He thinks Gamrot's chain wrestling, cardio, and durability will overwhelm RDA, who will likely lose the first two rounds and be unable to come back.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his superior technical wrestling, strength, and versatility compared to RDA. He notes the three-round format benefits Gamrot's pace, and that RDA is 39 and has talked about retirement. He also highlights that Gamrot trains with Dustin Poirier, which should help his preparation. He predicts Gamrot will ragdoll RDA and win a decision or late finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 72 of 141 | 51% | 138 of 221 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 12:01 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 66 of 136 | 48% | 94 of 170 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 3:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 20 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 20 of 41 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 32 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 14 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 27 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 12 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 4 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 26 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 5 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 33 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 28 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 72 of 141 | 51% | 48 of 115 | 17 of 19 | 7 of 7 | 60 of 127 | 8 of 8 | 4 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 66 of 136 | 48% | 42 of 108 | 19 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 38 of 105 | 26 of 27 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 16 of 32 | 50% | 9 of 24 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 37 | 45% | 8 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 28 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 11 of 26 | 42% | 7 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 10 of 22 | 45% | 4 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 15 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vicente Luque | 18 of 39 | 46% | 12 of 32 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 11 of 27 | 40% | 8 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Vicente Luque | 10 of 18 | 55% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 9 of 15 | 60% | 5 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Vicente Luque | 17 of 26 | 65% | 14 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 19 of 35 | 54% | 17 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks dos Anjos, citing his grappling and takedowns as the key. He notes Luque has poor takedown defense (except against Belal) and dos Anjos is a high-level grappler. He already has a moneyline bet at -125.
Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win by third-round knockout, but calls it the sketchiest fight on the card. He notes RDA's age (38) and size disadvantage at welterweight, but also Luque's recent knockout loss and brain hemorrhage concerns. He believes Luque's constant pressure and power will eventually catch RDA, but admits there are red flags on both sides. He says he wants nothing to do with the fight.
Cody picks Luque at plus money, arguing that dos Anjos is a former lightweight who has struggled at welterweight (2-5 in last 7). He notes Luque's strong get-up game against Belal Muhammad and believes dos Anjos won't be able to take him down consistently. He also mentions Luque's camp at Kill Cliff FC with Gilbert Burns preparing him for the wrestling. However, he acknowledges Luque's damage accumulation and brain hemorrhage history but still sees him edging out a five-round decision.
James picks RDA over Luque, citing Luque's brutal knockout loss to Neal and subsequent brain issues as major negatives. He sees the striking as fairly even but gives RDA a grappling advantage, noting RDA can lean on takedowns and jiu-jitsu. James acknowledges Luque's size and age advantage but feels the unknowns around Luque's recovery tilt the fight toward RDA. He is not yet committed to betting, saying he will discuss with his team.
Dos Anjos is durable and blends striking and grappling well. Luque is on a two-fight losing streak and had brain bleeding after his last KO. Dos Anjos should be able to mix in takedowns and combinations to outwork Luque over 25 minutes. Luque may have success striking, but dos Anjos's versatility will be too much.
Paul leans toward dos Anjos, citing his better cardio over five rounds and ability to mix in wrestling. He expresses concern about Luque's brain hemorrhage in 2022 and doesn't want to put money behind someone with that history. He acknowledges the fight is close and understands Cody's points about dos Anjos' wrestling not being as effective against bigger welterweights, but slightly favors RDA.
The MMA Guru picks Vicente Luque over Rafael dos Anjos, despite Luque's brain hemorrhage, assuming it was mild and he had a year off. He argues Luque is bigger, more powerful, has a better chin, and is hard to finish on the ground. He doubts RDA's ability to control Luque for five rounds and predicts Luque will finish RDA in round three by D'Arce choke.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 61 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 20 of 25 | 80% | 36 of 41 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 6:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 25 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 30 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:06 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 36 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 6 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 14 of 29 | 48% | 6 of 18 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Bryan Barberena | 20 of 25 | 80% | 3 of 8 | 17 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 9 of 19 | 47% | 1 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bryan Barberena | 16 of 20 | 80% | 2 of 6 | 14 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 12 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Bryan Barberena | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos, calling him the better fighter everywhere: more technical striking, much better grappling, higher fight IQ, and higher level of competition. He notes RDA is 38 and coming off a KO loss, but trusts him to grapple early and often. He thinks Barberena's 44% takedown defense and lack of one-punch KO power (except against Lawler) make RDA the pick.
Big Brady is extremely confident in RDA, citing a massive step down in competition and a favorable stylistic matchup. He notes Barberena's poor takedown defense (55%) and defensive irresponsibility, and RDA's advantage everywhere. He expects RDA to win however he wants, predicting a decision but noting a finish is possible.
Cody agrees RDA wins handily, citing his elite wrestling and Barberena's poor takedown defense. He notes RDA hasn't finished anyone recently but expects multiple takedowns and control. He prefers the over 2.5 takedowns prop over significant strikes.
Daniel Levi picks RDA to win by decision, mixing in takedowns. He acknowledges Barberena's durability and power (dropped Leon Edwards) but believes RDA's wrestling and blending of attacks will be too much. He is not interested in betting at the heavy price (-550) and calls it a pass.
The host is very confident in dos Anjos, calling him a 'lock of the night' essentially. He believes dos Anjos is far superior and will mix his striking and takedowns to control Barberena. He notes Barberena's struggles against grapplers like Jason Witt. He expects dos Anjos to win by decision but says he wouldn't bat an eye at parlaying him at the price.
Paul sees RDA as dominant everywhere and expects a straightforward win. He notes Barberena's durability but thinks RDA can finish him, especially inside the distance. He mentions RDA's takedown-heavy style and Barberena's poor takedown defense.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, noting Barberena struggles when opponents mix up attacks. He believes RDA's body work and leg kicks will be effective, and that Barberena's losses to Jason Witt and Randy Brown show vulnerability. He predicts RDA will win a clear decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 54 of 110 | 49% | 90 of 162 | 2 of 16 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 6:13 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 64 of 159 | 40% | 92 of 192 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 44 | 38% | 20 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 13 of 32 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 4 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 28 of 41 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 5 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 54 of 110 | 49% | 31 of 80 | 12 of 14 | 11 of 16 | 50 of 106 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 64 of 159 | 40% | 32 of 102 | 27 of 52 | 5 of 5 | 62 of 155 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 9 of 26 | 34% | 5 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 14 of 41 | 34% | 8 of 26 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 19 of 36 | 52% | 10 of 26 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 44 | 38% | 6 of 27 | 9 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 9 of 22 | 40% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 38 | 44% | 7 of 26 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rafael Fiziev | 15 of 23 | 65% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 12 of 27 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Rafael Fiziev | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos as a +170 underdog, citing his grappling, size advantage, cardio, and durability. He notes Fiziev is the better striker but has questionable cardio, especially in a 5-round fight. He points out that RDA has not lost in 6 years without being taken down, and Fiziev is unlikely to initiate takedowns. He already has a moneyline bet on RDA at +170.
Big Brady picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing the five-round distance as a key factor. He notes that Fiziev has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in third rounds of past fights, while RDA has proven cardio and experience in championship rounds. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns to test Fiziev's 95% takedown defense and cardio, potentially taking over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for RDA, acknowledging Fiziev could knock him out early.
Cody believes Fiziev has the advantage in striking with better hands and kicks, and his takedown defense is strong. He thinks Fiziev's cardio is sufficient to secure early rounds and then survive if needed. He sees RDA as a gatekeeper and Fiziev as a rising contender, calling it a passing of the torch.
The host discusses the Fiziev vs RDA fight but does not place a bet on it. He acknowledges the value on RDA as an underdog and respects those who pick him, but he personally keeps the fight out of his betting card. He mentions having Fiziev in a parlay but does not elaborate on a clear pick. He notes that Fiziev is younger, faster, and stronger, but RDA is durable and could win by decision. Ultimately, he does not commit to a side.
Paul thinks the price on Fiziev is too wide and expects to get RDA at a better price closer to fight time. He notes RDA's wrestling could be a factor, especially in a five-round fight, and that Fiziev's takedown defense hasn't been fully tested. He calls it a dogger pass situation but leans RDA.
The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, believing RDA's style is tailor-made to lose to Fiziev. He notes Fiziev's body work, takedown defense, and youth advantage. He predicts Fiziev will win the first three rounds decisively, possibly a 4-1 decision, with RDA making a late resurgence but ultimately losing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 149 of 286 | 52% | 179 of 318 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 13:22 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 88 of 172 | 51% | 99 of 185 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 30 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:12 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 27 of 47 | 57% | 32 of 52 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 40 of 84 | 47% | 52 of 97 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 27 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 20 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 38 of 79 | 48% | 38 of 79 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 36 of 73 | 49% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 149 of 286 | 52% | 119 of 255 | 23 of 24 | 7 of 7 | 84 of 198 | 7 of 8 | 58 of 80 |
| Renato Moicano | 88 of 172 | 51% | 77 of 158 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 81 of 164 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 22 of 34 | 64% | 17 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 14 |
| Renato Moicano | 10 of 23 | 43% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 27 of 47 | 57% | 19 of 39 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 7 |
| Renato Moicano | 15 of 29 | 51% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 40 of 84 | 47% | 34 of 77 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 23 of 38 |
| Renato Moicano | 15 of 25 | 60% | 14 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 22 of 42 | 52% | 17 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 21 |
| Renato Moicano | 12 of 22 | 54% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 38 of 79 | 48% | 32 of 73 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Renato Moicano | 36 of 73 | 49% | 33 of 67 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Fiziev but is hesitant, noting his brain says Fiziev but his heart says RDA. He highlights Fiziev's phenomenal striking and takedown defense, but questions his cardio over five rounds. He points out that RDA hasn't been finished in six years and only loses to wrestlers who take him down. He considers a plus 5.5 round bet on RDA.
Cody is torn because Moicano looked good on short notice against Hernandez, but the five-round nature favors RDA's experience and cardio. He notes RDA has fought 25 minutes many times and is a big lightweight who fought at welterweight, while Moicano has never gone five rounds and gassed in the Ortega fight. The catchweight of 160 also helps RDA. Cody ultimately flips to RDA but is hesitant due to the short-notice variable.
Daniel Levi picks Renato Moicano for the upset, but with hesitation. He notes that Moicano is the much bigger man with a size and reach advantage, and has good volume and a solid black belt. He points out that RDA has been taken down frequently in recent fights (by Usman, Colby, Chiesa, Leon) and that Moicano could have success in grappling exchanges. However, he conditions his pick on Moicano looking in shape at the weigh-in; if Moicano appears fat or out of shape, he would switch to RDA. He views this as a dog-or-pass situation and believes Moicano is on an upward trajectory.
RDA is a tough veteran with excellent cardio and durability, while Moicano is taking the fight on four days' notice with travel and weight cut issues. Moicano will likely come out strong early but fade as the fight goes on. RDA's grappling and pressure will wear on Moicano, leading to a finish in the later rounds. The short notice and travel are huge red flags for Moicano.
Paul initially considered Moicano as a live underdog but after tape study flipped to RDA. He emphasizes RDA's five-round experience, size advantage (fought at 170), and clean camp versus Moicano's short notice and history of gassing. Paul points out Moicano's takedowns zap his cardio and he struggles striking backwards, while RDA mixes grappling and pace well. He calls it dog or pass but leans RDA.
The MMA Guru picks Renato Moicano (referred to as 'fizzyev') over Rafael dos Anjos, calling it a lock. He notes Moicano's speed advantage and RDA's decline at 155, especially his chin. He predicts Moicano will chew up RDA's legs with kicks in the first round, and when RDA pressures in the second, Moicano will catch him with a straight right for a TKO. He mentions RDA's only chance was in a five-rounder, but Moicano's patience and striking will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 98 of 190 | 51% | 134 of 226 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 92 of 162 | 56% | 155 of 231 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 14:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 45 | 37% | 17 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 27 of 41 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 29 of 46 | 63% | 35 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 27 of 47 | 57% | 31 of 51 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 28 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:17 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 26 of 55 | 47% | 39 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 34 of 57 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 22 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Felder | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 35 of 47 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 4:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | 98 of 190 | 51% | 64 of 147 | 20 of 29 | 14 of 14 | 76 of 161 | 21 of 28 | 1 of 1 |
| Paul Felder | 92 of 162 | 56% | 53 of 113 | 35 of 45 | 4 of 4 | 61 of 125 | 26 of 29 | 5 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 45 | 37% | 8 of 33 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Felder | 22 of 34 | 64% | 13 of 24 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 28 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael dos Anjos | 29 of 46 | 63% | 23 of 38 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 38 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Felder | 27 of 47 | 57% | 19 of 36 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 40 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael dos Anjos | 12 of 21 | 57% | 5 of 11 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 13 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Felder | 13 of 18 | 72% | 7 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rafael dos Anjos | 26 of 55 | 47% | 20 of 48 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Felder | 19 of 41 | 46% | 7 of 26 | 11 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 2 | |
| 5 | Rafael dos Anjos | 14 of 23 | 60% | 8 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Paul Felder | 11 of 22 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
Big Brady picks RDA because he had a full camp training for Islam Makhachev, which should help his wrestling and grappling against Felder, who took the fight on five days' notice. He notes RDA is the more technical striker with higher output, and Felder is dangerous but RDA has a solid chin. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns and grind out a decision, possibly a late finish.
Daniel picks dos Anjos because he believes Felder's timing will be off due to lack of sparring and wrestling preparation on short notice. He notes dos Anjos has been training for a five-round fight against Islam Makhachev and is motivated dropping back to 155. He also points out that Felder historically struggles with volume and that dos Anjos can mix in takedowns, referencing Edson Barboza taking Felder down. He acknowledges Felder's durability and power but thinks dos Anjos will outwork him.
The host favors Rafael dos Anjos due to his experience in five-round fights, having gone to the fourth round or later in seven of his last nine five-round bouts. He believes dos Anjos's aggressive striking, leg kicks, and superior jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Paul Felder, who is taking the fight on six days' notice and has only one five-round fight experience. The host notes Felder's durability but expects dos Anjos to win via decision, possibly mixing in takedowns and ground control.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing Felder's short notice and difficult weight cut as major disadvantages. He believes dos Anjos will invest in body and leg kicks early, then finish Felder by exhaustion in the later rounds. He notes that dos Anjos has been training for this fight and is not a big lightweight, while Felder's reach advantage is neutralized by dos Anjos' similar reach. He also mentions that dos Anjos will be more confident on the feet without facing a wrestler.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 23 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 9 of 51 | 17% | 54 of 107 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 10:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 2 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 7 of 34 | 20% | 12 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 40 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 14 of 36 | 38% | 2 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 9 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 9 of 51 | 17% | 6 of 45 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 of 12 | 8% | 0 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 8 of 24 | 33% | 0 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 7 of 34 | 20% | 5 of 29 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Chiesa | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Daniel picks RDA to win by decision, acknowledging that Chiesa might give him some trouble early with his grappling and size. He notes that RDA has been taken down 28 times in his last four fights but believes RDA's superior striking and jiu-jitsu will prevail. He mentions that RDA is on the tail end of his career but still the better fighter.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, emphasizing that the fight is three rounds, which favors Chiesa's ability to hold dos Anjos down for two rounds. He notes Chiesa is a large welterweight with a significant reach advantage, and that dos Anjos may come back in the third but it will be too late. He predicts Chiesa wins the first two rounds and loses the third, winning by decision.
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