UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025 · Middleweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov Next Fight
Age 36
Height 6' 4"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 30
Height 6' 3"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Israel Adesanya
4.03 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.22 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.05 TD Avg
9.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Nassourdine Imavov
4.28 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
3.17 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.74 TD Avg
32.0% TD Acc.
81.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Israel Adesanya
Moneyline
DraftKings -155
KO/TKO
FanDuel +390
Submission
FanDuel +2600
Decision
FanDuel +140
Nassourdine Imavov
Moneyline
Caesars +150
KO/TKO
BetRivers +650
Submission
FanDuel +900
Decision
FanDuel +310
Israel Adesanya - Fight History
LOSS vs Joe Pyfer
KO R2 4:18 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 42 of 75 56% 58 of 92 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 36 of 70 51% 52 of 90 2 of 8 25% 0 0 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 24 of 42 57% 37 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 9 of 23 39% 9 of 23 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:01
2 Israel Adesanya 0 18 of 33 54% 21 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 27 of 47 57% 43 of 67 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 42 of 75 56% 22 of 54 8 of 8 12 of 13 42 of 74 0 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 36 of 70 51% 33 of 64 2 of 3 1 of 3 18 of 42 2 of 7 16 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 24 of 42 57% 13 of 30 2 of 2 9 of 10 24 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 9 of 23 39% 7 of 19 1 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 17 1 of 4 2 of 2
2 Israel Adesanya 18 of 33 54% 9 of 24 6 of 6 3 of 3 18 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 27 of 47 57% 26 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 1 12 of 25 1 of 3 14 of 19
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya despite acknowledging his age and chin issues. He believes Adesanya's technical striking and range management can keep him safe until Joe Pyfer's cardio fades. He notes that Adesanya looked good in recent losses before getting finished, and that Pyfer's wrestling is not at the level of Dricus du Plessis. However, he says he would not be surprised if Pyfer knocks him out.

"I'm going to pick Izzy here. I think Izzy is the better striker. At this age, is he the more powerful guy? No. Can his chin withstand a big Joe Pyfer punch? Absolutely not. 100% no."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges Adesanya is on a three-fight skid and may be declining, but notes his losses have come against top competition. He thinks Adesanya's elite takedown defense and striking volume will be key, especially with the big cage. He believes if Adesanya's chin holds up, he will outpoint Pyfer over five rounds. He also notes Pyfer's path is via knockout or wrestling, but doubts Pyfer can maintain wrestling for 25 minutes.

Adesanya by decision
"As long as Israel Adesanya's chin holds up for 25 minutes, I kind of think he wins this fight and wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody acknowledges Adesanya's recent losses and durability concerns but believes Pyfer's cardio issues and reliance on early power will allow Izzy to take over in later rounds. He notes Pyfer's limited wrestling and tendency to gas, making Adesanya the pick despite the risk.

"I will take Israel Adesanya, but you can't feel great about it given that he's lost his last couple fights and he's coming off a knockout loss."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Connor acknowledges that Pyfer is the more rational pick given Adesanya's recent decline and tendency to get hurt, but he stubbornly picks Adesanya because he doesn't think Pyfer is good enough. He notes that Adesanya can fence Pyfer off and make him uncomfortable, but can never fully neutralize the danger. He compares his pick to a classic 'vibes' pick, admitting it's a prove-it question.

Odds: Adesanya opened -110, now -150; Pyfer opened +110, now +130. Betting public coming in on Adesanya.
"I'm going to make a classic Connery Bush style pick and pick a draw to Sonya because I don't think Joe Pfeiffer is good."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Daniel believes Izzy is on the decline, having lost four of his last five and been finished in three. He thinks Pyfer's power and grappling, combined with Izzy's diminished reflexes and chin, will lead to an upset. He picks Pyfer to finish Adesanya.

"I think Joe Pyfer's going to come out here and it's going to be super sad when you see a guy like Joe Pyfer... come out here and beat Israel Adesanya in demoralizing fashion."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)

The host is torn on this fight. Adesanya is a bad stylistic matchup for Pyfer on paper (better striker, good takedown defense), but Adesanya has shown signs of decline (KO loss to Imavov, submission loss to Du Plessis). The host cannot confidently pick either side and passes pre-fight, preferring to live bet the fight.

"It's a good stylistic match-up for Izzy. But it can reach a point in a fighter's career where they just find ways to lose."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Lucrative James picks Israel Adesanya to win, believing Adesanya hasn't fallen as far as some think and that his experience and takedown defense will be key. He thinks Joe Pyfer will need a finish to win, but Adesanya's striking and durability make that unlikely. He also notes that Pyfer may fade in later rounds, giving Adesanya an edge.

Israel Adesanya by KO (+325), Israel Adesanya to win in round 4 (+2200) or round 5 (+2500)
"The hammer of the week is Israel Adisagna outs of minus 130."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The host is torn but leans towards Pyfer, citing Adesanya's recent decline in reflexes and durability. He thinks Pyfer's power and wrestling could lead to a finish, possibly by submission similar to Dricus du Plessis. However, he admits low confidence and may not bet it, noting Adesanya could also win by picking Pyfer apart from distance.

inside the distance
"I'm going to go Pyer. I'm going to go Per inside the distance. Um maybe club and sub. Maybe something similar to what Drizzles did as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul agrees with Cody, stating they've never been Pyfer guys. He thinks Adesanya's takedown defense is sufficient and that Pyfer hasn't shown elite wrestling. He's comfortable with the moneyline at -150.

"Israel Adesanya minus 150 is fine by me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya, despite acknowledging Joe Pyfer's power and grappling. He believes Adesanya's striking levels are above Pyfer's, citing his ability to avoid Pereira's left hook and his performance against Imavov. He expects Adesanya to use low kicks to neutralize Pyfer's right hand and eventually find a finish. He predicts a third-round TKO.

TKO in round 3
"I'm going with Israel Adisana to win this fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Zane sees the trajectories of the two careers heading in opposite directions, with Adesanya getting hurt frequently and Pyfer being extremely dangerous. He believes Adesanya cannot neutralize Pyfer's danger the way Abus Magomedov did, because Adesanya won't wrestle. He thinks Pyfer's lack of sophistication may not matter if he catches Adesanya early.

Odds: Pyfer opened +110, now +130.
"I think honestly, Pfeiffer is the more rational pick, though."
KO R2 0:30 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 26 of 50 52% 32 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 1 15 of 31 48% 18 of 34 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 20 of 44 45% 26 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 21 38% 10 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
2 Israel Adesanya 0 6 of 6 100% 6 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 1 7 of 10 70% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 26 of 50 52% 9 of 28 6 of 8 11 of 14 26 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 15 of 31 48% 9 of 21 0 of 3 6 of 7 10 of 25 0 of 0 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 20 of 44 45% 8 of 27 3 of 5 9 of 12 20 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 21 38% 3 of 13 0 of 2 5 of 6 8 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 6 of 6 100% 1 of 1 3 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 7 of 10 70% 6 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya but is getting less confident. He notes that Adesanya's striking looked great in his last fight against Dricus du Plessis, but he was ultimately finished. He believes Adesanya is the better striker and if the fight stays on the feet, he wins. However, he worries about Imavov's wrestling and the possibility of Adesanya's decline. He will not bet on Adesanya.

Will not bet on Adesanya.
"I will not be betting on Israel at asagna I don't quite know if his career is about to fall off a cliff"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is not overly excited for this fight but picks Israel Adesanya. He notes Adesanya looked bad against Strickland but good against Du Plessis before getting submitted. He thinks Imavov can wrestle but lacks the cardio to do so effectively, and will slow down as the fight goes on. Brady expects Adesanya to pick him apart late and win a decision. He has no betting interest.

decision
"I got to go aagna here and osani to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Connor picks Adesanya, arguing that Imavov lacks the pressure and cardio to exploit Adesanya's age. He notes that Adesanya's jab and kicking game remain effective, and Imavov has never shown the ability to maintain a high pace or wrestle consistently enough to trouble Adesanya. Connor believes Imavov would need a radically new approach to win, which he hasn't demonstrated.

"I just kind of have to pick Otis on you by default here and unless he has completely fallen apart or Imavov has leveled up or come up with a really good strategy then."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

James picks Imavov to win, citing Adesanya's decline in durability, reaction time, and motivation. He notes Imavov has advantages in wrestling and grappling, and that Adesanya's recent submission loss to Dricus du Plessis showed poor defensive grappling. He believes Imavov can win by submission, decision, or even knockout due to Adesanya's declining chin. However, he admits it's not his most confident pick.

Imavov by submission at +850 mentioned as a possible play; also suggests Imavov decision as a potential prop.
"I'm going to pick nasad imov to win this fight I think that he's catching Iz he at the right time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is facing a kickboxer that allows him to showcase his high-level performances, unlike the wrestling-heavy styles of Strickland and du Plessis. He will set traps, spring them on Imavov, and prove he is still one of the best middleweights. Expect a 25-minute decision win.

"I believe this is the type of kickboxer that Adesanya has been wanting to go against so that he can showcase that he's still capable of high level performances... look for Adesanya to pick apart Imavov over the course of …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov to win by submission in the third round, possibly an arm triangle. He believes Imavov's grappling and clinch work will be key, as Adesanya has weaknesses in the clinch and on the ground. He notes Imavov nearly beat Sean Strickland and has good takedown entries. He thinks Adesanya's motivation may be lacking after his losses.

submission, third round arm triangle
"I'm going to go with nasad Nam mov and I'm actually going to take him by submission third round arm triangle"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Zane picks Adesanya, agreeing with Connor that Imavov's style doesn't match up well. He emphasizes that Imavov is not a pressure fighter and struggles with pace, while Adesanya's kicking and jab are still effective. Zane notes that Imavov would need to wrestle consistently, but his takedowns are often from clinch exchanges, which Adesanya handles well.

"I don't think that he's ever shown really the late cardio to make out of Sonia like flow down and really pay for putting on a great performance."
Submission (face crank) R4 3:38 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 90 of 197 45% 99 of 206 4 of 9 44% 2 0 3:39
Israel Adesanya 0 97 of 203 47% 105 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 13 of 25 52% 22 of 34 3 of 5 60% 1 0 3:28
Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 30 56% 25 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:02
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 75 41% 31 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:11
Israel Adesanya 0 24 of 53 45% 24 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 90 of 197 45% 61 of 155 7 of 13 22 of 29 80 of 184 8 of 11 2 of 2
Israel Adesanya 97 of 203 47% 63 of 165 26 of 29 8 of 9 92 of 198 4 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 52 42% 8 of 30 2 of 5 12 of 17 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 16 of 37 43% 10 of 31 4 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 13 of 25 52% 10 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 14 6 of 9 2 of 2
Israel Adesanya 17 of 30 56% 12 of 25 2 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 75 41% 22 of 63 1 of 3 8 of 9 31 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 40 of 83 48% 25 of 66 12 of 14 3 of 3 40 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 24 of 45 53% 21 of 41 2 of 3 1 of 1 22 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 24 of 53 45% 16 of 43 8 of 9 0 of 1 23 of 52 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo picks Dricus du Plessis despite acknowledging Israel Adesanya is the more technical fighter. He believes du Plessis's insane pressure, constant forward movement, and takedown attempts will be too much for the 35-year-old Adesanya, who took a year off. He has two half-unit bets on du Plessis at +105 and +120, totaling one unit, and is confident the pressure will overwhelm Adesanya.

Two half-unit bets at +105 and +120; total 1 unit
"I think all of that is going to be too much for Izzy he's 35 years old he took a year off... drus is going to be the pick and I've got two bets on draz."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but is hesitant. He struggled with this pick, initially leaning du Plessis but then moving to Adesanya. He rewatched the du Plessis vs Strickland fight and didn't think du Plessis won convincingly. He notes that if du Plessis fights at range against Adesanya, Adesanya will make it look easy, but if du Plessis pressures recklessly, he could knock Adesanya out. He is concerned about Adesanya's last performance against Strickland, which was his worst career fight, but believes a motivated Adesanya can win. He says he will probably stay away from betting this fight.

decision
"I'm going to pick osani to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody believes du Plessis has the wrestling advantage to take Adesanya down repeatedly, as Adesanya's takedown defense has always been suspect. He notes du Plessis is younger, has better cardio, and is improving, while Adesanya is 35 and coming off a year layoff. He also points to du Plessis' wins over Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland as evidence he can handle top competition.

"I'm going to back him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Vreeland picks Adesanya, calling him 'good' and noting he occasionally gets caught but won't happen here against a smaller fighter. He believes Adesanya will play it safe and get his belt back, especially with the home crowd against him.

"give me isosa isos is good he occasionally gets caught and knocked out I don't think that's gonna happen here with a smaller fighter in tras D pleas c"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to retain the belt, citing stylistic advantages in closing distance and making the fight dirty. He notes that du Plessis has power, wrestling threats, and a proven ability to push pace, while Adesanya may be declining due to age and recent losses. Vreeland also mentions betting on du Plessis at plus 110 odds.

"I took D's dupy plus 110 listen I know it's tough to bet against a guy like IAT asna but when we come down to the Stylistics closing the distance getting right in his face fighting not at kicking range …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Fox picks Adesanya, arguing du Plessis is good but cannot close the distance against a motivated Adesanya. He compares to Pereira: you need elite striking or wrestling to beat Adesanya. He dismisses the Strickland loss as an unmotivated Adesanya, and believes with the trilogy fight with Pereira dangling, Adesanya will be fully motivated and put on a clinic. He thinks du Plessis' pressure will be countered viciously.

Israel Adesanya by decision (+240) - Fox's prop pick
"I think you see the ated version of them back and I think you see an absolute clinic on the feet so yeah isra desna"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The host picks Adesanya, citing his technical striking, traps, and game planning. He expects a revitalized Adesanya after rest, and believes he will counter du Plessis effectively. He notes du Plessis' power and forward pressure but thinks Adesanya's pop and volume will be too much. He predicts a knockout win for Adesanya.

Adesanya by knockout
"I think we're going to see a very revitalized version of aanna this weekend and I think that's ultimately going to lead to him getting his hand raised again"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul highlights Adesanya's history of lackluster performances under pressure, such as against Sean Strickland and Yoel Romero, and questions his urgency. He emphasizes du Plessis' forward pressure, durability, and wrestling ability, noting he took down Strickland six times. Paul also mentions du Plessis' youth and the fact that Adesanya is 35 and coming off a retirement, making du Plessis the smart side.

"sign me up for draas"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Israel Adesanya. He argues that du Plessis is bigger than Adesanya's previous opponents, with better footwork and angles, and has multiple offensive options including takedowns, body kicks, and ground and pound. He criticizes Adesanya's recent performances, noting close fights with Sean Strickland and a loss to Alex Pereira. He believes du Plessis will take Adesanya down and control him, possibly finishing via ground and pound. He also mentions Adesanya's age (35) and that du Plessis is in his prime and fighting on his own terms.

TKO late round two via ground and pound
"I'm going with drias dupi over israela... he's got way more options he's got the power"
LOSS vs Sean Strickland
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Strickland 0 94 of 271 34% 94 of 271 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 1 137 of 259 52% 137 of 259 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Strickland 0 12 of 39 30% 12 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 1 27 of 52 51% 27 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Sean Strickland 0 20 of 64 31% 20 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean Strickland 0 21 of 57 36% 21 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 20 of 41 48% 20 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Sean Strickland 0 20 of 51 39% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 38 of 63 60% 38 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Sean Strickland 0 21 of 60 35% 21 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 36 of 71 50% 36 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Strickland 94 of 271 34% 22 of 154 38 of 60 34 of 57 94 of 271 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 137 of 259 52% 85 of 186 45 of 62 7 of 11 121 of 235 11 of 14 5 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Strickland 12 of 39 30% 1 of 20 3 of 7 8 of 12 12 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 27 of 52 51% 22 of 42 1 of 4 4 of 6 11 of 28 11 of 14 5 of 10
2 Sean Strickland 20 of 64 31% 3 of 35 7 of 12 10 of 17 20 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 16 of 32 50% 11 of 22 5 of 8 0 of 2 16 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean Strickland 21 of 57 36% 4 of 27 10 of 17 7 of 13 21 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 20 of 41 48% 12 of 32 8 of 9 0 of 0 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Sean Strickland 20 of 51 39% 10 of 35 7 of 10 3 of 6 20 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 38 of 63 60% 22 of 46 15 of 16 1 of 1 38 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Sean Strickland 21 of 60 35% 4 of 37 11 of 14 6 of 9 21 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 36 of 71 50% 18 of 44 16 of 25 2 of 2 36 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Adesanya (-650), Strickland (+470)

Round 1
This main event is for all the marbles, with a middleweight belt and plenty of bragging rights following ample trash talk on the line. Intending on making the first defense of his second middleweight title reign, Adesanya (24-2, 13-2 UFC) comes in with about -700 odds as the most heavily favored fighter on the lineup. With plans of springing one of the largest championship upsets in recent memory – Grasso vs. Shevchenko and Pena vs. Nunes notwithstanding – Strickland (27-5, 14-5 UFC) would like nothing more than to spoil the party and play the ultimate villain in Sydney. The striker-on-striker affair will be officiated by referee Marc Goddard, and due to their bad blood, the middleweights have no plan on bumping fists. Adesanya is already talking to Strickland, and he feints several times to make Strickland react immediately. Adesanya paws out a low kick and then a front kick, and Strickland pushes it out of the way and blocks another front kick. A body kick from the champ grazes off the intended target, and he moves laterally to not let Strickland get into his preferred range. Adesanya continues hip-thrusting and faking strikes, and Strickland bites on most of them and is prepared to block when Adesanya commits to a strike. Strickland meanders forward, missing with a jab, and Adesanya hops away. Adesanya reaches his man with a straight left hand, and he sinks a leg kick down hard. Both men try to land long punches, and Strickland whiffs on a one-two. Adesanya kicks the body, and Strickland catches it, walks him to the fence, and lets it go so he can poke out his jab. Strickland sees the big kicks coming from his foe, but he is offensively muted even as he keeps after Adesanya. Adesanya chews up the lead leg with a few kicks, and he jabs to the body to stay busy. Strickland misses with two leg kicks, and he is jittery and keeps a tight Philly Shell defense when coming forward. Adesanya is still able to get in on him, and he kicks the lead leg when circling to the left. Strickland catches him with a few punches, and he lands a punch that drives Adesanya back to the wall. Adesanya allows him to rattle a few punches off the guard, and he bounces off it to stick out his own jab and loose a head kick. Strickland guard against the high kick but cannot stop the low strike, and he continues to give chase and cut Adesanya off. Adesanya stays on his bike and just misses with a head kick, and out of nowhere, Strickland blasts him in the face with a straight right hand. Strickland sees that he has his man hurt badly, and Adesanya drops to his knee. Strickland unloads on him with punches, and Adesanya stands up and turns his back while leaning forward against the fence. As Strickland keeps throwing everything he has, Adesanya motions to Goddard that he is fine. Adesanya turns around, and he survives the assault when the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 2
The champ appears recovered from the assault that ended the previous frame, and he peppers Strickland with distance strikes to initiate the second stanza. Strickland splits the guard with a jab, and Adesanya whips a leg kick at him and has a head kick bounce into the block. Adesanya lands kicks with body legs, and he connects with a left hook and rolls just in time to dodge a one-two from the challenger. Adesanya stretches his hand out several times to get a read on his distance, and he comes up short on a one-two to a high kick. Adesanya attacks the body, and he slaps with his right hand and follows it with a solid left. Strickland parries jabs and body shots, and he ignores a jab and a leg kick while plodding forward. Adesanya looks to loop a left around the guard, and Strickland pops him in the face with a sharp jab. Adesanya gets a right hand over that jab, and Strickland takes it without batting an eye. Strickland jabs with the ball of his foot to the midsection, and Adesanya keeps circling and moving while putting jabs together. Adesanya lands a few leg kicks, and Strickland reaches him with his toes for a push kick. Adesanya strikes the body and the lead leg, and Strickland pushes him back with an accurate jab. Adesanya winds up and drills the challenger with an overhand right, and Strickland can do little beyond block the body kick that comes after it and keep the forward pace constant. Strickland prods out a jab, and Adesanya answers him with a big right that grazes off the shoulder. Adesanya again opens up with a wide right hand, and he kicks the body and fakes to spin as he dips and ducks. Strickland lands with a right, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya

Round 3
Adesanya starts the third round by slapping a kick off the raised guard. Strickland moves forward, but his offense is largely relegated to a jab or a front kick as Adesanya keeps strafing. Adesanya hand-fights to stop a left hand from coming over the top, and he flicks out a number of jabs and kicks the body with either leg. Adesanya pushes off with a front kick, and Strickland answers him with one of his own. When Strickland raises his leg to prepare for a kick, Adesanya kicks him anyway. Adesanya connects with a right over the top in the midst of an exchange, but he mixes up strikes to the body and head to keep Strickland guessing. Strickland walks him down with a pair of jabs and a push kick, and he protects himself from most of what comes back towards him. Adesanya reaches him with a right hand, and Strickland counters with one that brushes off his foe’s forehead. A head kick from Adesanya is narrowly guarded in time, and Adesanya resets and eats a check left hook. Strickland gives chase with a one-two, and he stands Adesanya up with a left hand when swarming him. Adesanya gathers himself and jabs the head and body, only to be met with a push kick. When Adesanya kicks low, Strickland pops him in the chops with a sharp jab. Adesanya slips a punch, retaliates, and takes a body shot and a left hook. Adesanya jabs a few more times as Strickland cannot reach him, and he gets knocked back to the wall from a jab. Strickland lands a front kick, misses with a left hand, and the tepid round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 4
The two have reached the championship rounds, and Adesanya begins a bit more aggressive than before with a number of snappy jabs. Strickland ignores them all as he continues to come towards his foe, and Adesanya responds with a left hand. Strickland pushes his foe back with a punch to the chest, and Adesanya gives him a head kick back. Adesanya moves and kicks the challenger’s body, and he whiffs on a left hook. Adesanya lands a left hand to the body, and Strickland kicks him three times down the middle. A Strickland right hand draws a reaction out of his opponent, and Adesanya tries to slug it out only to get caught with a left hook from Strickland. Adesanya rebounds with a right hand and a kick to the ribs, only to get no-sold by “Tarzan.” Both men trade jabs, and the champion does not get a head kick through but does reach the mark with a right hand. Strickland lets Adesanya come at him so he can string together five or six punches, and Adesanya is surprised as he puts his guard up and backs away. Adesanya springs into action with an overhand right, but it is one-and-done as Strickland is back in his face with a jab. Strickland gets intercepted on his way in, and Adesanya chains a punch into a ripping body kick. Strickland pokes with a front kick, and he keeps jabbing to fluster Adesanya further. Adesanya has a low kick checked, and he keeps his hands low while Strickland is chasing after him. Adesanya tries to swing hard, but Strickland closes in to let the strikes go wide. The champ gets off a jab, and he snipes his target with a right hand. Strickland stands firm and composed while Adesanya is struggling to find any effective offense. Strickland has two punches pound off the guard, and he kicks the body once before the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 5
Strickland is so fired up between rounds, he gets out of his corner, jumps to the center of the cage and starts hitting himself in the face. When the last round opens, Adesanya lands a low kick and circles. Adesanya puts up two high kicks, and Strickland’s defense is tight and solid. The two graze right hands off the other, and Adesanya leans back and gets popped with a right hand. Adesanya chips at the lead calf, and he forces a right hand over the top but does not quite reach him. Strickland picks away at the champ with a jab, and Adesanya reaches out with a body kick. Strickland checks a kick and continues to walk him down, and Adesanya may be a few minutes away from losing in a massive upset. He recognizes this and lands a huge right hand, and Strickland responds with a jab on the nose. Adesanya whips a high kick that gets guarded, and they both land jabs at the same time. A push kick from Strickland forces Adesanya to reset, and he is fearlessly approaching the champion. Strickland connects with an overhand right, and he lands a second to force Adesanya to escape out the side. Strickland backs his foe up against the fence, and Adesanya swings with a left but it does not get through. Strickland stings “The Last Stylebender” with a short combination, and he continues to come at Adesanya. Strickland starts shouting at the champion, telling him to fight him, and Adesanya can only muster a few kicks. Strickland powers forward swinging for the fences, and Adesanya has nothing left to offer. The final horn blares to end this fairly lackluster match, but it is one that will make history. Barring a bizarre series of scorecards, the challenger has done it, pulling off an upset that few if any expected would happen. When the scorecards are read, the UFC has a new middleweight king, and the belt belongs to Strickland. MMA might be the craziest sport in the world. The fights never stop coming, however, and another title is up for grabs next week. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)

The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Israel Adesanya via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya confidently, saying it should be Izzy all day and the -650 should be wider. He notes that Izzy is an elite striker with power and technique, while Strickland is a blue-collar volume puncher with no particular power or speed. Angelo expects a one-sided win for Izzy, possibly by decision. He suggests betting Izzy minus 5.5 points for better value.

Considering Izzy minus 5.5 points on BetOnline for better odds
"This is Izzy all day like I'm not gonna do pretend and then do like the Gordon Ramsay reveal but the yeah he's a 650 favorite and it should honestly be wider than that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady confidently picks Israel Adesanya, noting Strickland lacks power and wrestling threat. He thinks Adesanya will pick him apart for five rounds. He is not sure about a finish due to Strickland's durability. He predicts a decision win.

fight doesn't go to decision? no, he says decision
"I like arasandi here to pick apart Sean Strickland for five rounds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody picks Israel Adesanya as the rightful favorite, citing his speed advantage, technical striking, and ability to stay on the outside and pick apart Strickland. He notes that Strickland's best chance is to make it ugly with grappling, but doubts he will employ that game plan consistently. Cody acknowledges the line is juiced but sees Adesanya winning the majority of rounds, especially with the hometown crowd in Australia.

Strickland money line as a hedge if doing well; Adesanya under 110 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"I think as out of Sanyo wins if this line kind of keeps if it keeps growing and we're getting like plus 600 on on flight night and I'm having like a good night I may throw a little bit …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya confidently, citing Adesanya's superior striking, counter-punching, and leg kick game. He notes that Sean Strickland walks in a straight line, backs up in a straight line, and doesn't cut off the cage properly, which will leave him open to Adesanya's combinations. Levi also mentions that Strickland's parrying style leaves his chin exposed to follow-up strikes. He acknowledges the possibility of an upset but believes Adesanya has him covered in all areas.

Odds mentioned: Izzy minus 650, Strickland plus 475. Levi says Izzy should be minus 1000.
"I think Izzy has him covered in all areas and I know a lot of people are bringing up well what if Sean wrestles and it's like I think that's such a broad question."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Lucrative James is highly confident Israel Adesanya will win, calling him a deserved -600 favorite. He sees no clear path for Sean Strickland: Strickland lacks power, takedown threat, and volume to outwork Adesanya. James expects Adesanya to land calf kicks, forcing Strickland to switch stances and lose power. He believes Adesanya will make it look easy, possibly by decision or late knockout if Strickland gets frustrated. James dismisses Strickland's chances as a fluke.

Mentions that Izzy is a deserved -600 favorite and that he doesn't see value in betting Strickland at +400.
"I think Izzy is a deserved minus 600 I think he should be a massive massive favor I don't I don't see the tools that Sean Strickland wins"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is a disciplined striker who sets up traps and executes game plans. He has excellent takedown defense. Strickland has poor striking defense, leaving his head on the center line and leaning back. Adesanya should work leg kicks and body shots, then set up a head kick or knockout. He will likely finish within four rounds.

Adesanya by KO
"I'm gonna hold in on othersanya by KO I think he sets up a trap similar to what he did against Paul Acosta and he Springs it on and within the first four rounds or so"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul picks Adesanya but notes the line is too wide, suggesting the true line should be around -425 to -450. He acknowledges Strickland's volume and pressure could pose problems, but believes Adesanya's precision and hometown crowd will carry him. Paul mentions that if he's having a good night, he might throw a small bet on Strickland as a hedge.

Strickland money line as a small hedge if doing well; Adesanya under 110 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"I got this thing lined up closer to minus 425 minus 450 Israel the longtime Champion is the Matador and he could very well be exactly that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya over Sean Strickland, predicting a third-round TKO. He notes that Adesanya will chew up Strickland's lead leg with low kicks, as Strickland has shown vulnerability to leg kicks in fights against Abus Magomedov, Cannonier, and Brendan Allen. Adesanya's feints will cause Strickland to parry, opening up kicks. He believes Adesanya will eventually land a head kick to wobble Strickland and follow up with ground and pound for a stoppage. He does not expect an early knockout, as Adesanya may not be on cycle for this fight.

TKO in round 3
"I'm gonna go with Israel I understand you're getting this one done via round three TKO"
WIN vs Alex Pereira
KO (punches) R2 4:21 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 49 of 85 57% 49 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Pereira 1 41 of 96 42% 41 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 20 of 31 64% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Pereira 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Israel Adesanya 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Pereira 1 26 of 58 44% 26 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 49 of 85 57% 8 of 28 15 of 21 26 of 36 48 of 83 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alex Pereira 41 of 96 42% 18 of 61 14 of 24 9 of 11 40 of 93 0 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 20 of 31 64% 1 of 4 3 of 6 16 of 21 20 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Pereira 15 of 38 39% 3 of 22 5 of 8 7 of 8 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 29 of 54 53% 7 of 24 12 of 15 10 of 15 28 of 52 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alex Pereira 26 of 58 44% 15 of 39 9 of 16 2 of 3 25 of 55 0 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Angelo picks Alex Pereira but with very low confidence, admitting he has flip-flopped. He notes that Pereira has beaten Adesanya three times, including a knockout in their last fight. However, he acknowledges that Adesanya was winning the fight until he got caught, and that Adesanya has bounced back well from losses before. He is just going to enjoy the fight.

"I am on the Alex paheda side now he's beaten Izzy three times stopped him two times"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Big Brady picks Alex Pereira to win by third-round knockout, citing Pereira's fight-changing power and pressure. He notes that Adesanya is not a wrestler and will likely strike with Pereira, where Pereira has the advantage in power. He was impressed by Pereira's fifth-round finish in their first fight and believes he can do it again.

third round knockout
"give me Alex prayer for the win you know I'm going to take him to win uh by I'll say third round knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Cody agrees with Paul on Pereira at plus money. He doesn't buy into Adesanya's wrestling either, noting his only takedown in the UFC was against Pereira. Cody points out that Pereira trains with Glover Teixeira and has improved his grappling. He also argues that the first fight was closer than people remember, with close rounds, and that the champion's mystique may have influenced scoring. He sees value on Pereira.

plus money on Pereira
"I'm with you I think um plus money on Pereira it's it's definitely the side as far as I'm concerned"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Connor picks Pereira because Adesanya has repeatedly fallen into a passive, cautious style that allows Pereira to find his one-punch knockout. Despite Adesanya's technical advantages and ability to hurt Pereira, he has shown a psychological block that prevents him from maintaining aggression. Connor notes that Pereira's counter left hook is always a threat and that Adesanya's defensive footwork is poor, making him vulnerable when he hangs around. He acknowledges that Adesanya could win if he fights aggressively, but he hasn't seen that version consistently.

Pereira opened at +134, now +119; Adesanya opened at -152, now -138. Connor is surprised Pereira is the underdog given his two KO wins over Adesanya.
"I'm going to essentially wish him luck by not picking it until I see it."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Jacob is confident in Alex Pereira, questioning how anyone can pick against a guy who is 3-0 against Adesanya. He notes that Adesanya fights scared against Pereira, especially against the fence, and that Pereira's power is a constant threat. He believes Pereira will knock him out again, possibly even quicker this time, as Pereira seems more motivated.

"I think he gets knocked out even quicker because for whatever reason Alex seems even more motivated now"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is the more complete fighter with more paths to victory. He was winning the first fight until the fifth-round KO. He can implement grappling, leg kicks, and his usual striking to avoid Pereira's power. Pereira is a heavy hitter but has limited grappling and cardio. I think Adesanya's team will adjust, and he wins a decision, though Pereira's power always poses a threat.

"I still lean with Izzy being the more complete fighter here Aileen with being the guy that has more paths to victory in this matchup which is why I think he's going to go out there and win back his …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul sees Alex Pereira as a plus-money champion who has already defeated Adesanya multiple times, including in MMA. He believes Adesanya's wrestling narrative is overblown since he trains at a kickboxing gym and hasn't shown that skill. Paul thinks Pereira will be more confident with MMA experience and can win rounds or land a knockout. He acknowledges it's a close fight but feels the plus money is too good to pass up.

plus money on champion; Pereira at +115
"I just feel like a plus money I'd be stupid not to have a sniff so am I super confident this is a world class five round main event... but yeah I got to take Alex Pereira to retain"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Alex Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira to win by second-round KO. He expects a similar fight to the first, with Adesanya failing takedown attempts and Pereira winning the clinch with body shots. He predicts Pereira will edge round one, then in round two, he will catch Adesanya with a straight right hand against the cage, rocking him badly and finishing him on the ground. He emphasizes that Pereira will not get rocked at the end of round one this time.

second round KO
"Alex Pereira gets it done by second round KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Zane picks Pereira because Adesanya has a history of taking his foot off the gas when he has momentum, allowing Pereira to get back into fights. He points to the Whittaker rematch as instructive, where Adesanya hurt Whittaker but then became passive and never adjusted. Zane believes Adesanya's cautious approach is a mental block, and despite encouraging quotes about being more aggressive, he needs to see it to believe it. He notes that Pereira is a massive middleweight and could have weight-cut issues, but that's not factored into his pick.

Pereira opened at +134, now +119; Adesanya opened at -152, now -138. Zane is surprised Pereira is the underdog given his head-to-head record.
"I can't imagine him letting Pereira hang around for five rounds and winning. I just can't."
LOSS vs Alex Pereira
TKO (punches) R5 2:01 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Pereira 0 86 of 162 53% 119 of 209 1 of 4 25% 0 0 6:34
Israel Adesanya 0 91 of 157 57% 140 of 214 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Pereira 0 23 of 43 53% 23 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Israel Adesanya 0 23 of 41 56% 28 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Alex Pereira 0 20 of 44 45% 30 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:13
Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 36 47% 33 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:21
3 Alex Pereira 0 14 of 25 56% 31 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:47
Israel Adesanya 0 8 of 14 57% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Alex Pereira 0 20 of 35 57% 26 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:08
Israel Adesanya 0 15 of 29 51% 30 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
5 Alex Pereira 0 9 of 15 60% 9 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Israel Adesanya 0 28 of 37 75% 30 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Pereira 86 of 162 53% 41 of 103 21 of 29 24 of 30 77 of 148 3 of 4 6 of 10
Israel Adesanya 91 of 157 57% 42 of 89 27 of 33 22 of 35 76 of 139 14 of 17 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Pereira 23 of 43 53% 6 of 22 6 of 8 11 of 13 23 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 23 of 41 56% 1 of 12 8 of 10 14 of 19 19 of 36 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Alex Pereira 20 of 44 45% 14 of 36 2 of 2 4 of 6 19 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 17 of 36 47% 12 of 25 4 of 6 1 of 5 15 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Alex Pereira 14 of 25 56% 7 of 17 5 of 6 2 of 2 8 of 15 0 of 0 6 of 10
Israel Adesanya 8 of 14 57% 3 of 8 3 of 3 2 of 3 6 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1
4 Alex Pereira 20 of 35 57% 10 of 19 6 of 11 4 of 5 20 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 15 of 29 51% 8 of 18 4 of 5 3 of 6 11 of 24 4 of 5 0 of 0
5 Alex Pereira 9 of 15 60% 4 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 4 7 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 28 of 37 75% 18 of 26 8 of 9 2 of 2 25 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Middleweight Title Fight: Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Adesanya (-130), Pereira (+110)

Round 1
At long last, the main event is here. The middleweight championship will be on the line for two men that know one another intimately. This will be their second meeting in the cage, but fourth across combat sports, and Pereira (7-1, 4-0 UFC) is 3-0 thus far. The once-dominant champion Adesanya (23-2, 12-2 UFC) met his match last November, falling to a salvo of strikes in the fifth round in a fight he was winning. Needing no further introduction or hype, the two stand directly in front of one another as referee Dan Miragliotta gives the final instructions as the two do not break eye contact. The match begins with no glove touch, and Pereira lashes out first with a low kick. Adesanya responds with a few body kicks, and he kicks the calf as well. Pereira strikes the low leg again, and they trade kicks to this target and this target alone. The pace is slow and deliberate, with the middleweights well out of punching range. Pereira gets off a low kick, and Adesanya slaps him in the face with his foot. Pereira scores a few more leg kicks, and he does not flinch any time Adesanya manages to land on him. Pereira slides his foot up Adesanya’s shoulder with a head kick, but Adesanya dodges it well enough to not let it strike him in the face. Pereira jabs the body and kicks at the lead leg, and he dips back from a looping one-two. The former champ gets off a pair of body kicks, and Pereira continues his assault on the former champ’s calf. Adesanya whips another kick to the ribcage, and he slams a few kicks to the Brazilian’s inside leg. “The Last Stylebender” strikes the body with his shin, and Pereira kicks low and high – the second misses, and the crowd gasps. Adesanya looks to split the guard, but Pereira protects himself and scores a heavy calf kick. The action-free round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Adesanya

Round 2
When the second round begins, Adesanya fires off several high kicks that Pereira blocks or dodges. Adesanya sits down on a calf kick, and Pereira nods at him. Pereira absorbs a head kick and nods, and he walks Adesanya down and starts slugging it out with him. The Brazilian wings huge punches, and Adesanya eats a few of them and backs off to bounce off the wall. Pereira corners him, but he lets him off the hook when Adesanya gets off a good shot. Adesanya begins to lead the dance again, with several kicks from his rear leg to the midsection and raised guard. Pereira attacks both calves with kicks as Adesanya switches stances, and “The Last Stylebender” reaches him with a few punches. One jab in response from Pereira knocks Adesanya back with much more emphasis behind it. Adesanya winds up with a right hook, and Pereira frowns and resets to keep pounding on Adesanya’s calf. They fire jabs at one another from a wide distance, and Adesanya slams his shin on Pereira’s inner thigh. Adesanya clips Pereira with a clean left hook, and Pereira walks through it and two follow-up punches to aim a right hand down Broadway. Adesanya strings a few punches to the body and one to the head, and he skirts back as a low kick comes at him. Pereira lands another low, and Adesanya counters him with an overhand right. They come together and throw hands, with Adesanya the one to break and escape as Pereira walks him down. The champion stuns Adesanya with a calf kick, and Adesanya is compromised. Adesanya falls back to the cage, barely able to stand up, and Pereira lays into him with a brutal series of body shots and a knee. Adesanya desperately fires off a right hand to back Pereira off, and Pereira reels but stands back up. Adesanya connects with one second right hand flush on the temple, and “Poatan” collapses to the ground like a ton of bricks. Before Miragliotta can reach them, Adesanya lands one more shot for good measure out of the playbook of Dan Henderson against Michael Bisping, and Pereira is completely unconscious, dreaming of his ancestors. Adesanya stands up and mocks Pereira’s bow-and-arrow move from before and motions to fire three arrows at the fallen Brazilian. Incredible! Adesanya has done it, exacting some modicum of revenge on the man to beat him three times before. The building erupts as Adesanya celebrates his triumph, and Pereira is out for a while and eventually comes to. “The Last Stylebender” claims the microphone and gives a motivational speech about the thrill of victory, imploring everyone to have this feeling at least once in their life. Whether Adesanya moves on to challenge new opponents vying for his throne or if they set up the rubber match for all the marbles, we will be certainly be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Israel Adesanya def. Alex Pereira R2 4:21 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo acknowledges that Pereira has beaten Adesanya twice in kickboxing, including by KO, but he picks Adesanya because he is the current middleweight champion with 24 UFC fights against Pereira's seven. He notes that both are strikers and unlikely to grapple, but believes Adesanya's MMA experience and cage control could be factors. He admits it is insane to pick against the champion but does so reluctantly. He has a bet on under 4.5 rounds at +150.

under 4.5 rounds at +150 (placed months ago)
"I'm gonna have to pick Israel atasanya I'm gonna have to pick the current middleweight champion of the world to beat a dude with seven fights"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, citing Adesanya's superior defensive striking and ability to avoid clean shots. He notes that Pereira has a puncher's chance but Adesanya fights smart and avoids risks, making it a 'boring' but effective game plan. He mentions the big cage favors Adesanya's movement and that Pereira's power is terrifying but Adesanya doesn't give opportunities to land clean. He also notes that Adesanya has never been knocked down in the UFC.

Adesanya by decision; big cage favors Adesanya; no takedowns expected
"I like ottasania to win a quote-unquote boring decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Cody picks Pereira as a live underdog, citing Pereira's size and power advantage over Adesanya's previous opponents. He notes that Pereira has already beaten Adesanya twice in kickboxing, including a knockout, and that the mental edge favors Pereira. He also points out that Adesanya's defensive wrestling is untested and that Pereira's grappling has improved training with Glover Teixeira. Cody believes Pereira can win a straight kickboxing match and has the power to hurt Adesanya.

"I gotta go the other way... I just think that if it's going to end up being a kickboxing match there's a lot that I really do like."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to retain the middleweight belt, citing Izzy's superior MMA experience and resume against top competition like Whittaker, Vettori, and Cannonier. He notes that while Pereira has knockout power and a history of beating Izzy in kickboxing, MMA is a different sport with smaller gloves, no standing eight-count, and the ability to clinch and grapple. Levi is hesitant because Pereira's left hook is a constant threat, and Izzy must be perfect for 25 minutes. He mentions the odds are a discount compared to Izzy's usual lines, but he has no bet on the fight and plans to enjoy it as a fan.

No bet at the moment; odds mentioned: Izzy -180, Pereira +155 at DraftKings
"my pick is going to be Izzy I don't have a bet at the moment I'm kind of juggling if I want to bet it or if I just want to sit back and enjoy it as a fan but …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The host believes Adesanya is the superior striker with better technique and combinations, and that the smaller MMA gloves will allow his shots to land cleaner. He acknowledges Pereira's power and left hook but thinks Adesanya's discipline and output will win the fight, likely by decision. He sees no value in betting Adesanya at -180 but picks him to win.

"I think that Izzy is rightfully favored here I have no intentions of betting Izzy at minus 180"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Pereira as an underdog. He notes that Pereira has won both kickboxing matches against Adesanya and has been training with Glover, improving his grappling. Paul points out that Adesanya has never landed a takedown in the UFC and that Pereira's cardio should be fine in a stand-up fight. He also mentions that the line has fluctuated and he can wait for weigh-ins to bet, but he will have money on Pereira.

"I think it's a pretty clear you know you don't have to like twist my arm too much to get me to bet an underdog so yeah Pereira will be the pick and I'll have money on him come Saturday …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira, arguing that Pereira has improved more than Adesanya in striking since their kickboxing fights. He believes Adesanya has plateaued and that Pereira's size, reach, and power will be decisive. He notes that Adesanya has been hit by lesser strikers like Whittaker and Cannonier, and predicts a second-round KO. He dismisses the grappling threat, citing Pereira's training with Glover Teixeira and his defensive awareness.

KO round two
"I'm going with Alex Pereira again"
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 116 of 230 50% 163 of 277 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 90 of 157 57% 141 of 217 0 of 4 0% 0 0 4:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 22 of 48 45% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 18 of 28 64% 18 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Israel Adesanya 0 28 of 48 58% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 19 of 31 61% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 35 48% 35 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 17 of 36 47% 38 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:29
4 Israel Adesanya 0 24 of 45 53% 40 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 16 of 36 44% 31 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:18
5 Israel Adesanya 0 25 of 54 46% 38 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 20 of 26 76% 35 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 116 of 230 50% 60 of 165 26 of 31 30 of 34 114 of 226 2 of 4 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 90 of 157 57% 36 of 89 32 of 40 22 of 28 78 of 143 12 of 14 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 22 of 48 45% 7 of 29 6 of 8 9 of 11 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 18 of 28 64% 1 of 6 6 of 8 11 of 14 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 28 of 48 58% 12 of 32 9 of 9 7 of 7 28 of 47 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 19 of 31 61% 6 of 15 9 of 11 4 of 5 19 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Israel Adesanya 17 of 35 48% 9 of 26 4 of 4 4 of 5 17 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 17 of 36 47% 7 of 22 6 of 8 4 of 6 9 of 27 8 of 9 0 of 0
4 Israel Adesanya 24 of 45 53% 15 of 34 5 of 7 4 of 4 24 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 16 of 36 44% 8 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Israel Adesanya 25 of 54 46% 17 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 7 23 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 20 of 26 76% 14 of 19 5 of 6 1 of 1 18 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya, citing his superior speed, technique, and counter-striking. He notes that Cannonier offers no takedown threat, making it a pure kickboxing match where Izzy is the better kickboxer. He acknowledges Cannonier's power but believes Izzy's defense and timing will prevail.

"I like izzy to win this fight but it will be very interesting to see what happened if jared lands clean"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is confident in Israel Adesanya, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He believes Cannonier has no clear path to victory, as wrestling is unlikely and striking on the outside favors Adesanya. He predicts a decision win, possibly a late finish if Cannonier rushes.

Adesanya by decision
"adasanya i'll say adasanya by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody believes Adesanya is the cleaner striker and will manage range effectively. He notes Cannonier tends to wait on his punches and doesn't throw high volume, which will allow Adesanya to dictate the pace. He sees a decision victory or late stoppage as likely.

Adesanya over 76.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I think he's going to be cleaner more polished stand up and uh you know on route to likely a decision Victory or maybe like a late stoppage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win, citing his superior range, stance switching, and fight IQ. He notes that Adesanya's fainting game and variety of strikes make him difficult to deal with, and that Cannonier's only path is to capitalize on Adesanya's occasional defensive lapses. Levi acknowledges Cannonier's power and durability but believes Adesanya's technical edge will prevail. He mentions the line is about right and sees no value in betting at -500.

Line is about right; no value at -500; would have been interested at -300 to -400 for a parlay.
"on paper i mean you gotta favor izzy... the pick is easy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is faster and more technical. Cannonier's path to victory is a KO, but Adesanya's defense and movement make that unlikely. Cannonier is not a proactive grappler and doesn't have exceptional cardio. Adesanya should win a decision, possibly a late finish.

Adesanya wins in round 4/5 or decision +115
"i think arizona wins no real resistance here in my opinion"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul thinks the line is too wide but still expects Adesanya to win. He highlights Adesanya's leg kicks and movement to stay out of danger, and notes Cannonier lacks the wrestling to exploit Adesanya. He sees a decision win but won't bet at -500.

Adesanya over 76.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I don't think Jared Cannonier is a complete sitting duck in this spot... but I do think he wins"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya to win by TKO in the fourth round. He believes Adesanya's leg kicks and range will be key, and that Cannonier, at 38, will take risks when behind on the scorecards, leading to a counter shot finish. He notes Cannonier's forearm injury from blocking kicks and expects Adesanya to capitalize.

fourth round TKO
"i'm gonna be going with israel to sanyo winning this one by fourth round tko"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 1 79 of 169 46% 98 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Robert Whittaker 0 59 of 136 43% 74 of 151 4 of 10 40% 0 0 3:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 1 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Robert Whittaker 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 41 39% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 12 of 33 36% 17 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
3 Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
4 Israel Adesanya 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 16 of 35 45% 19 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
5 Israel Adesanya 0 13 of 22 59% 24 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 10 of 19 52% 17 of 26 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 79 of 169 46% 36 of 108 14 of 23 29 of 38 77 of 167 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 59 of 136 43% 38 of 105 8 of 11 13 of 20 54 of 130 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 18 of 34 52% 3 of 14 4 of 6 11 of 14 18 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 9 of 21 42% 3 of 12 1 of 1 5 of 8 9 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 16 of 41 39% 9 of 30 0 of 2 7 of 9 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 12 of 33 36% 7 of 27 3 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Israel Adesanya 17 of 33 51% 11 of 24 3 of 4 3 of 5 16 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 12 of 28 42% 9 of 20 1 of 3 2 of 5 12 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Israel Adesanya 15 of 39 38% 6 of 26 5 of 7 4 of 6 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 16 of 35 45% 10 of 29 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 0
5 Israel Adesanya 13 of 22 59% 7 of 14 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 10 of 19 52% 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2 8 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Adesanya to win by decision in a very competitive fight. He notes that Whittaker's path to victory is grappling, but Marvin Vettori tried that and still lost. He thinks Adesanya has surprises on the ground and is more precise with power. He suggests buying a few rounds on the scorecard for Whittaker as a prop.

buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for Robert Whittaker
"i like israel adasana to win by decision in a very very competitive fight and i may buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for robert whitaker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is confident in Adesanya due to his reach advantage, striking skills, and takedown defense. He dismisses the narrative that Whittaker will wrestle, noting Adesanya stuffed four takedowns from Vettori and still won 50-45. He believes Whittaker will struggle to close distance again, and Adesanya will win comfortably, possibly by late knockout. He calls it one of his most confident picks.

Adesanya by late knockout
"i'm going to take honasanya pretty confidently probably my first or second most confident pick of the card"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody believes Whittaker hasn't shown enough improvement since the first fight to change the outcome. He highlights Adesanya's superior striking and takedown defense, noting that even when taken down, Adesanya gets back up quickly. He thinks Whittaker's chin is compromised from the Yoel Romero wars and that Izzy will eventually land the knockout.

under 4.5 rounds +105
"i just don't think i've seen enough from robert whittaker since the first meaning to really leaning his favor"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win the rematch, citing Adesanya's precision striking and ability to get inside opponents' heads. He notes that Whittaker has looked good in his three-fight win streak but hasn't shown anything to suggest he can overcome Adesanya's accuracy. Levi also mentions that Whittaker drops his left hand and that Adesanya's jab can change the fight. He expects Adesanya to win by decision this time.

"I still have to go with izzy I design it here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has improved since the first fight, with better game planning and activity. He should mix in takedowns and volume to win rounds. Adesanya has been taken down more recently, and Whittaker's style is more elusive than Vettori's. The odds are too wide; Whittaker should be closer to +150. He wins a decision.

Whittaker by decision; value at +225
"i do like bobby knuckles in this spot i think he's a very good bet especially at plus 225 and i don't care what anybody says"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul agrees with Cody that Adesanya will win again. He notes Whittaker's takedowns against Gastelum were opportunistic and won't work against Adesanya's improved takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks standing at range with Izzy is a losing strategy and expects a similar outcome to the first fight.

under 4.5 rounds +105
"i think it's going to be the same old thing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya by decision, citing his leg kicks, range control, and suspected PED use. He believes Whittaker's patience will play into Adesanya's game and that Adesanya's takedown defense and ability to get up will be key.

decision
"i'm going with israel desanya"
Nassourdine Imavov - Fight History
WIN vs Caio Borralho
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 81 of 162 50% 89 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Caio Borralho 0 66 of 166 39% 89 of 190 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 10 of 18 55% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Borralho 0 6 of 22 27% 13 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:51
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Borralho 0 7 of 30 23% 7 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 13 of 31 41% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Caio Borralho 0 17 of 38 44% 21 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
4 Nassourdine Imavov 0 24 of 44 54% 26 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Caio Borralho 0 12 of 32 37% 20 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
5 Nassourdine Imavov 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Borralho 0 24 of 44 54% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 81 of 162 50% 53 of 118 14 of 26 14 of 18 79 of 160 2 of 2 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 66 of 166 39% 39 of 109 14 of 38 13 of 19 59 of 159 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 10 of 18 55% 3 of 6 3 of 5 4 of 7 9 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 6 of 22 27% 1 of 10 4 of 8 1 of 4 3 of 19 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Nassourdine Imavov 13 of 26 50% 9 of 20 3 of 4 1 of 2 13 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 7 of 30 23% 3 of 16 1 of 11 3 of 3 7 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nassourdine Imavov 13 of 31 41% 10 of 24 2 of 6 1 of 1 13 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 17 of 38 44% 8 of 22 7 of 13 2 of 3 14 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0
4 Nassourdine Imavov 24 of 44 54% 17 of 35 3 of 5 4 of 4 24 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 12 of 32 37% 10 of 26 0 of 3 2 of 3 12 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Nassourdine Imavov 21 of 43 48% 14 of 33 3 of 6 4 of 4 20 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 24 of 44 54% 17 of 35 2 of 3 5 of 6 23 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo leans towards Nassourdine Imavov, citing his superior striking, footwork, and gas tank. He acknowledges Borralho's improvements and toughness but believes Imavov has more ways to win. He trusts Imavov's takedown defense over five rounds and notes that Borralho might be distracted by his world tour. He calls it a razor-thin 50-50 fight.

"I am going to lean Nasser Imov here because I think he has more ways to win."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Big Brady picks Caio Borralho, citing his grappling upside and the 'Fighting Nerds' aura. He expects a close fight going 25 minutes, with Borralho winning minutes in the clinch and with takedowns. He notes both have good cardio but favors Borralho slightly.

Borralho by decision
"I'm going to go Kyle Baja to win this fight by a close decision, winning some minutes in the clinch, having the slightly better cardio, and then mixing in some takedowns."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Connor also picks Borralho, citing that Imavov's game may struggle against a southpaw and that Borralho's low kicks and body work will pay dividends. He notes that Imavov still tends to gas, especially if he wrestles, and that Borralho's conditioning is superior. However, he admits that Borralho's one good performance against Cannonier may be stylistic and that Imavov could have a definitive round.

"I tend to agree because even if it's not that good a performance, I do kind of suspect a lot of that had to do with Jared Cannonier as a stylistic matchup for him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

The host views Borralho as the far superior fighter in fight IQ and overall MMA approach. He acknowledges Imavov can be competitive in striking but expects Borralho to mix it up well, get his grappling going, and win at least four out of five rounds on the scorecards.

"I think Bajalio is just the far superior fighter from fight IQ to an overall MMA approach. But Hayo can definitely be competitive in the striking realm, and I think we'll see him mix it up well to eventually get …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov as an underdog, arguing the odds are incorrect and Imavov should be a 2-to-1 favorite. He praises Imavov's striking, footwork, and speed, while noting Borralho's grappling advantage may not materialize. He predicts a TKO finish in round three or four, citing Imavov's moments of excellence and Borralho's inactivity.

TKO finish in round three or four
"I'm going with Nasadin Mav. And he's an underdog here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Zane leans toward Borralho because he believes Borralho has shown improved striking and pace, particularly in the Jared Cannonier fight, and can push a better pace for more rounds. He notes that Imavov tends to gas and relies on wrestling, which may not be effective against Borralho's conditioning. However, he acknowledges that Imavov could have a definitive round or land a damaging shot, making it a close fight.

"I think for me, I'm still going to lean towards picking Caio Borralho just because if I imagine the shape of the fight, I don't think like Imavov when he finishes people, it always just kind of comes out of …"
KO R2 0:30 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 26 of 50 52% 32 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 1 15 of 31 48% 18 of 34 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 20 of 44 45% 26 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 21 38% 10 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
2 Israel Adesanya 0 6 of 6 100% 6 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 1 7 of 10 70% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 26 of 50 52% 9 of 28 6 of 8 11 of 14 26 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 15 of 31 48% 9 of 21 0 of 3 6 of 7 10 of 25 0 of 0 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 20 of 44 45% 8 of 27 3 of 5 9 of 12 20 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 21 38% 3 of 13 0 of 2 5 of 6 8 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 6 of 6 100% 1 of 1 3 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 7 of 10 70% 6 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya but is getting less confident. He notes that Adesanya's striking looked great in his last fight against Dricus du Plessis, but he was ultimately finished. He believes Adesanya is the better striker and if the fight stays on the feet, he wins. However, he worries about Imavov's wrestling and the possibility of Adesanya's decline. He will not bet on Adesanya.

Will not bet on Adesanya.
"I will not be betting on Israel at asagna I don't quite know if his career is about to fall off a cliff"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is not overly excited for this fight but picks Israel Adesanya. He notes Adesanya looked bad against Strickland but good against Du Plessis before getting submitted. He thinks Imavov can wrestle but lacks the cardio to do so effectively, and will slow down as the fight goes on. Brady expects Adesanya to pick him apart late and win a decision. He has no betting interest.

decision
"I got to go aagna here and osani to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Connor picks Adesanya, arguing that Imavov lacks the pressure and cardio to exploit Adesanya's age. He notes that Adesanya's jab and kicking game remain effective, and Imavov has never shown the ability to maintain a high pace or wrestle consistently enough to trouble Adesanya. Connor believes Imavov would need a radically new approach to win, which he hasn't demonstrated.

"I just kind of have to pick Otis on you by default here and unless he has completely fallen apart or Imavov has leveled up or come up with a really good strategy then."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

James picks Imavov to win, citing Adesanya's decline in durability, reaction time, and motivation. He notes Imavov has advantages in wrestling and grappling, and that Adesanya's recent submission loss to Dricus du Plessis showed poor defensive grappling. He believes Imavov can win by submission, decision, or even knockout due to Adesanya's declining chin. However, he admits it's not his most confident pick.

Imavov by submission at +850 mentioned as a possible play; also suggests Imavov decision as a potential prop.
"I'm going to pick nasad imov to win this fight I think that he's catching Iz he at the right time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is facing a kickboxer that allows him to showcase his high-level performances, unlike the wrestling-heavy styles of Strickland and du Plessis. He will set traps, spring them on Imavov, and prove he is still one of the best middleweights. Expect a 25-minute decision win.

"I believe this is the type of kickboxer that Adesanya has been wanting to go against so that he can showcase that he's still capable of high level performances... look for Adesanya to pick apart Imavov over the course of …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov to win by submission in the third round, possibly an arm triangle. He believes Imavov's grappling and clinch work will be key, as Adesanya has weaknesses in the clinch and on the ground. He notes Imavov nearly beat Sean Strickland and has good takedown entries. He thinks Adesanya's motivation may be lacking after his losses.

submission, third round arm triangle
"I'm going to go with nasad Nam mov and I'm actually going to take him by submission third round arm triangle"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Zane picks Adesanya, agreeing with Connor that Imavov's style doesn't match up well. He emphasizes that Imavov is not a pressure fighter and struggles with pace, while Adesanya's kicking and jab are still effective. Zane notes that Imavov would need to wrestle consistently, but his takedowns are often from clinch exchanges, which Adesanya handles well.

"I don't think that he's ever shown really the late cardio to make out of Sonia like flow down and really pay for putting on a great performance."
WIN vs Brendan Allen
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 57 of 86 66% 79 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 5:47
Brendan Allen 0 30 of 52 57% 56 of 82 1 of 10 10% 0 0 6:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 1 of 3 33% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brendan Allen 0 4 of 5 80% 21 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:45
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 23 of 33 69% 31 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:32
Brendan Allen 0 8 of 19 42% 11 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 33 of 50 66% 43 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:15
Brendan Allen 0 18 of 28 64% 24 of 35 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 57 of 86 66% 51 of 80 5 of 5 1 of 1 37 of 59 7 of 9 13 of 18
Brendan Allen 30 of 52 57% 20 of 41 4 of 5 6 of 6 20 of 38 6 of 10 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brendan Allen 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Nassourdine Imavov 23 of 33 69% 19 of 29 3 of 3 1 of 1 12 of 18 2 of 3 9 of 12
Brendan Allen 8 of 19 42% 4 of 14 1 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 15 2 of 3 1 of 1
3 Nassourdine Imavov 33 of 50 66% 31 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0 24 of 38 5 of 6 4 of 6
Brendan Allen 18 of 28 64% 13 of 23 3 of 3 2 of 2 14 of 21 4 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brendan Allen vs. Nassourdine Imavov

Round 1
On practically any other Fight Night card, this middleweight pairing would serve as the main attraction—and it could use the five-round treatment, as the winner might not be far from a title shot. Imavov (14-4, 1 NC; 6-2, 1 NC UFC) is coming off the biggest win of his career, having knocked out Jared Cannonier. His opponent Allen (24-5, 13-2 UFC) is riding a dynamite seven-fight win streak on his own ledger, and someone’s momentum will grind to a halt in the next 15 minutes or less. Referee Herb Dean will know first before anyone else, and he tells the fighters to fight as they acknowledge him and do not bump fists. Imavov takes to the center of the cage, and lets Allen come to him. Allen does just that, leaping in to land a few punches. Imavov pushes him away, getting away with an eye poke, and finds himself staring down the barrel of a takedown attempt. Allen easily lands the body lock, putting the Frenchman on his back and landing in side control. Allen imposes heavy shoulder pressure on the side of Imavov’s face, holding him tightly while Imavov signals to Dean that he is just holding him. Dean asks for more activity, leading to Allen shoulder-checking the local fighter. Imavov tries to buck and shift his hips, and he sits up and is otherwise stuck. Allen looks to assume full mount, and he gets caught and pulled into half guard. Allen opens up with short, stay-busy strikes, and he lowers himself down with a possible arm-triangle setup. Dean claps several times to prompt more action, and Imavov reassumes full guard. Allen postures himself up to land a single right hand, and it is one-and-done and makes Dean ask for more fighting a few times. Imavov sets up an armbar, but he lets it go and gets tagged with a hard right hand. Allen connects with a left while Imavov scoots his way closer to the fencing, and Dean is not overly thrilled by the lack of face-punching thus far. Allen allows Imavov to turn over to his knees, working the body with a knee and planting an elbow on the eyebrow before the grinder of a round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 2
Allen sprints out of his corner to engage, and he fires off a big right hand only to get poked squarely in the eye. Allen signals to Dean that he has gotten poked again, and Dean calls time. Allen frowns and takes a few seconds before resuming, and Dean tells Imavov to be careful. Allen shoots from one side of the cage to the other with a single, and Imavov defends this time and drops to his knees to sprawl effectively. Allen turns to his back, and Imavov lets him stand up. Allen fires off two low kicks and a left hook, and Imavov counters with a right hand over the top. Imavov rings two punches off and waves Allen on, who connects cleanly and shoots for a double. Imavov stuffs this shot masterfully, and he rolls Allen to his back and gets to north-south position. Imavov moves himself to side control, and Allen turns to his knees and starts absorbing fierce punches from the position. Allen’s small rubber bands holding his hair braids start breaking and shooting off his head, and a pile of them forms beneath him. Imavov postures up and batters “All In” with devastating right hands, and Allen is stunned and still with it. Allen explodes back to his feet and directly into a head kick, but he turns around and lets Imavov have it with counters. Imavov strings a combination together and stops a deep shot from Allen, dropping to his knees and considering a guillotine choke of his own to keep Allen honest. Allen breaks out of the choke and dives after the hips, and he twists and turns to not get tagged. This allows the Frenchman to mount him, and Allen turns to give his back up and surrenders both hooks. Allen hand-fights to protect his neck, and Imavov rolls for an armbar with 10 seconds left in the round. Allen defends properly and flips over, landing a few punches before time expires. Allen flashes a wide grin to his opponent after several minutes of grappling.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Imavov

Round 3
The last round kicks off with Allen again pushing the pace, and after landing a few punches, Allen is driven back with a one-two. Imavov flicks a jab out and follows with a right hand, and Allen leaps after a single. Imavov defends with a sprawl in the center of the cage, pulling his leg out and letting Allen roll to his back so he can club him with right hands. Imavov, in guard, drops down a few punches to bloody the nose of the surging contender. Imavov’s left hands continue to find their home, and Allen pushes off the chest with his feet. Imavov dives after him with a right hand, and Allen sits up and spins around to pursue a double. The Frenchman defends with his back to the fencing, elbowing Allen on the side of the head when Allen turns it to a single. Imavov’s defense in the second and third rounds is immaculate, and Allen is the one getting tossed around at this point. Imavov loads up on short punches from inside, and Allen shoves him away and throws caution to the wind. Allen punches his way in close, and he blasts Imavov in the face with a knee. Imavov waves him on, and Allen tries to throw him to the mat. Allen walks Imavov down when they both are upright, and he overswings and ends up in a clinch. Allen informs Dean that Imavov is holding his gloves, and Dean looks closely but does not see anything. They break out of the clinch, and Allen whips an elbow up top and a clean knee on the chin. Allen shoots for a single with a minute to go, and when that fails, they start slugging it out. Imavov tags Allen, and Allen fires back hard. Allen tackles his foe down, but Imavov squirms away. Allen walks him down, gets clinched and spins with an elbow that misses. Imavov lands a few punches, and the nailbiter of a middleweight contest draws to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (29-28 Imavov)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (29-28 Imavov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (29-28 Imavov)

The Official Result
Nassourdine Imavov def. Brendan Allen via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov, though he thinks the -200 favorite line is a bit wide. He believes Imavov's size and wrestling will be too much for Brendan Allen, who has improved but struggled with Chris Curtis until he wrestled. Allen won't be able to outwrestle Imavov, and Imavov's striking will give Allen trouble. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"Nasser Imavov is going to be my pick... the fact that this is three rounds instead of five only helps Nasser here... I do think the over two and a half is pretty solid."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady picks Nassourdine Imavov by second-round knockout, citing Imavov's superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Allen has been on a streak but has poor striking defense (47%) and has been knocked out before. He expects Imavov to land significant shots and finish Allen.

Imavov by second round knockout
"I'll say he knocks out Allen here I'll say he knocks out brenon Allen in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Cody sees Brendan Allen as a live underdog due to his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Imavov has been protected from wrestlers and has shown defensive grappling vulnerabilities. Allen's game plan of takedowns and top control should neutralize Imavov's striking, and the three-round format favors Allen's approach.

"I'm going to take unders on Brendon Allen... the plus money definitely makes sense"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Connor picks Imavov because he believes Allen's defensive deficiencies on the feet will be exploited by Imavov's size, range, and power. He notes that Allen's best wins have come against grapplers or lower-level strikers, and he has struggled against fighters who can keep him at range. Connor also points out that Allen tends to be cautious against strikers he respects, which will play into Imavov's hands. He acknowledges that Allen could win if he pressures relentlessly, but doubts he will do so effectively.

Odds: Imavov -209, Allen +182. Connor mentions the odds are reasonable.
"I'm picking Nasri and Ymavov here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Daniel Vreeland picks Imavov to win, but is not confident he covers the -210 price. He thinks Imavov's speed, power, and distance management will be key, and that he has a good chance to knock out Allen. However, he believes if Imavov doesn't finish, the fight will be close and Allen has value as a dog. He ultimately picks Imavov but notes the price is high.

"I think imov has a good chance to knock out Allen here in this fight but if he doesn't knock him out I don't think he's GNA cover this price tag"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

JP picks Nassourdine Imavov because he thinks the three-round format favors Imavov's striking. He notes Brendan Allen has a grappling advantage but Imavov throws harder, more accurate strikes and is more mobile. He says if it were five rounds, he'd pick Allen, but in three rounds Imavov should edge it out by decision.

"I am going to go am MAV as well though I I think he can uh I think it'll go all three I think both of them are good enough but uh yeah I think he'll Edge it out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Allen's seven-fight win streak and his ability to take down Chris Curtis six times. He believes Allen's grappling advantage is clear and that Imavov's defensive wrestling is suspect. Paul also notes that the line doesn't reflect the competitive nature of the fight, making Allen a good dog pick.

"I'm with you 100%... he's on a seven fight winning streak taking down Chris Curtis six times is a massive massive feat"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov over Brendan Allen, citing Imavov's technical striking and ability at all ranges. He notes Imavov's good takedown defense and performance against Strickland. He predicts Imavov will win a decision, possibly 30-27 or 29-28, and that Allen may get frustrated.

"I'm going to go nasaden mavo decision win 30 27 maybe 29 28"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Zane picks Imavov because he sees Allen's striking defense as a major liability, especially against a rangy, powerful striker like Imavov. He notes that Allen's recent wins have come against grapplers or lower-tier competition, and he barely squeaked by Chris Curtis. Zane also points out that Imavov is durable and can maintain a steady pace, while Allen tends to struggle when forced to fight off the back foot. He believes this is the point where Allen's upward trajectory plateaus.

Odds: Imavov -209, Allen +182. Zane mentions the odds are reasonable.
"Me too. This is the point where Alan's upward trajectory just plateaus..."
TKO (punches) R4 1:34 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 64 of 109 58% 102 of 152 1 of 1 100% 0 0 6:18
Jared Cannonier 0 82 of 134 61% 106 of 159 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 21 of 32 65% 38 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:05
Jared Cannonier 0 14 of 30 46% 16 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 17 of 32 53% 27 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:16
Jared Cannonier 0 28 of 46 60% 36 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 18 of 30 60% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:57
Jared Cannonier 0 21 of 32 65% 33 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:46
4 Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 19 of 26 73% 21 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 64 of 109 58% 42 of 81 9 of 11 13 of 17 58 of 100 6 of 9 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 82 of 134 61% 61 of 112 16 of 17 5 of 5 64 of 114 17 of 19 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 21 of 32 65% 13 of 23 2 of 2 6 of 7 20 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 14 of 30 46% 7 of 23 4 of 4 3 of 3 12 of 28 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Nassourdine Imavov 17 of 32 53% 12 of 25 3 of 4 2 of 3 15 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 28 of 46 60% 19 of 37 7 of 7 2 of 2 17 of 34 11 of 12 0 of 0
3 Nassourdine Imavov 18 of 30 60% 12 of 23 2 of 2 4 of 5 15 of 25 3 of 5 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 21 of 32 65% 18 of 28 3 of 4 0 of 0 21 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 15 53% 5 of 10 2 of 3 1 of 2 8 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 19 of 26 73% 17 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 20 5 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Angelo picks Jared Cannonier, citing his impressive performance against Marvin Vettori where he showed forward pressure, takedowns, and cardio. He acknowledges that Imavov is good and just dominated Roman Dolidze, but he is impressed with Cannonier's last fight. He thinks the best version of Cannonier wins, and he is crossing his fingers that version shows up.

"I am going to slightly pick Jared caner and the only reason I'm picking him is based off of that last fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Big Brady picks Jared Cannonier to win by split decision. He notes that Cannonier is 40 but looks better than ever, with impressive wins over Marvin Vettori and Sean Strickland. He expects Imavov to have early success but fade, while Cannonier's five-round cardio and takedown defense will allow him to take over. He predicts a close 48-47 split decision.

"I'm going caner I'm going with the 40-year-old caner to get it done maybe losing the first round two rounds but taking over as the fight goes on and and winning a very close 4847 type Split Decision fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Cody picks Cannonier based on his proven cardio, durability, and experience against top competition. He notes Cannonier's ability to maintain high volume over five rounds, as seen in the Marvin Vettori fight where he landed 241 significant strikes. Cody acknowledges the concerns about Cannonier's age (40) and the two-year layoff due to an MCL tear, but believes his gas tank and power will be too much for Imavov, who has shown cardio issues in the past. He expects Cannonier to win a competitive decision.

"I got to go with the back class I got to go with the experience I got to go with the proven cardio The Proven durability The Proven experience the competition level all of that stuff Fades towards Jared koner …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Daniel leans towards Imavov due to his youth, speed, and improved defense since the Strickland fight. He worries about Imavov's high-energy style causing a late fade, allowing Cannonier to take over in the championship rounds. He notes Cannonier's durability and high output, especially in the Vettori fight, but sees Imavov's early movement and speed as key to banking rounds. Ultimately, he calls it a tough fight that could go either way.

"I'm leaning a little bit towards Nasser just a little bit but you know it's this is one where you can realistically see it going either way"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Jacob is very confident in Jared Cannonier, stating he will not pick against him until someone beats him over five rounds. He notes that Imavov might have early success, but Cannonier's veteran savvy and cardio will take over. He predicts Cannonier wins a decision and makes another title run. He considered Cannonier as lock of the week but the odds were too close.

Jared Cannonier wins by decision
"until I see somebody beat Jared Canon there across five rounds I'm not picking against him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Cannonier has power, speed, and explosiveness to crash the pocket and disrupt Imavov's range striking. Imavov may get demoralized when his range control fails, as seen against Strickland. Cannonier can land big shots, change levels for takedowns, and grind out a decision or even a KO. At +105, he's a solid underdog bet.

straight up at +105
"final prediction Jared cir by decision but straight up at plus 105 I think he's that's a that that's a good enough spot to take a trade bet on"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Paul leans towards Cannonier but is hesitant due to the injury and layoff. He notes that Cannonier's price at plus money seems like good value given his resume, but the torn MCL and age are concerns. Paul thinks Cannonier's reach advantage and pressure will be key, and he expects Imavov to struggle with Cannonier's volume and power as the fight goes on. He predicts a competitive fight but sees Cannonier getting the nod.

"I'm still going to go with cener based off of the body of work and that you know pre-injury ability to land insane volume over the course of five rounds against some of the top guys in the division but …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

The Guru picks Cannonier because Imavov slows down in fights and lacks finishing instinct, as seen against Roman Dolidze and Buckley. He notes Cannonier gets better as the fight goes on and can walk Imavov down, chew up his legs, and work him against the cage in the later rounds. He says if it were a three-rounder he'd take Imavov, but in a five-rounder Cannonier builds into it and wins a split decision. He also mentions Cannonier looked phenomenal against Vettori and that Imavov hasn't shown he's clearly better than that level of middleweight.

Split decision prediction; says if three rounds would pick Imavov
"if this was a threee rounder I actually do take a mov to win five rounder I think caner will build into this and I think he'll actually beat imov by decision"
WIN vs Roman Dolidze
Decision (majority) (49–44, 47–47, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 34 of 152 22% 59 of 190 0 of 4 0% 0 1 10:11
Roman Dolidze 1 112 of 189 59% 154 of 248 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:28
Roman Dolidze 1 51 of 75 68% 69 of 109 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:10
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 5 of 30 16% 17 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:43
Roman Dolidze 0 9 of 22 40% 14 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 29 27% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:17
Roman Dolidze 0 20 of 33 60% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
4 Nassourdine Imavov 0 6 of 31 19% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:33
Roman Dolidze 0 14 of 26 53% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
5 Nassourdine Imavov 0 7 of 29 24% 8 of 30 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:10
Roman Dolidze 0 18 of 33 54% 23 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 34 of 152 22% 14 of 113 8 of 13 12 of 26 32 of 145 2 of 7 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 112 of 189 59% 71 of 132 24 of 38 17 of 19 67 of 129 13 of 16 32 of 44
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 33 24% 1 of 20 3 of 3 4 of 10 7 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 51 of 75 68% 35 of 54 9 of 13 7 of 8 18 of 31 5 of 6 28 of 38
2 Nassourdine Imavov 5 of 30 16% 4 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 4 4 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 9 of 22 40% 4 of 16 3 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 29 27% 4 of 22 1 of 2 3 of 5 8 of 25 0 of 4 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 20 of 33 60% 9 of 18 7 of 10 4 of 5 16 of 29 4 of 4 0 of 0
4 Nassourdine Imavov 6 of 31 19% 3 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 14 of 26 53% 10 of 19 1 of 4 3 of 3 12 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2
5 Nassourdine Imavov 7 of 29 24% 2 of 18 2 of 5 3 of 6 7 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 18 of 33 54% 13 of 25 4 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 24 3 of 5 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov but also bets on Roman Dolidze inside the distance. He explains that Dolidze has the power and submissions to finish but cannot be trusted to grapple, as seen in his last fight. He expects Imavov to win by decision, using movement and striking. He places a bet on Dolidze inside the distance with decision no action.

Bet on Roman Dolidze inside the distance (decision no action)
"nardin's going to be the pick... I'm going to do inside the distance decision no action on Roman deled"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady picks Nassourdine Imavov to win a close decision. He notes that Imavov is a minute winner with high volume, while Dolidze is a moment winner with low volume but big shots. The five-round fight favors Imavov, as Dolidze has never gone five rounds and slows down. Brady expects Imavov to outland Dolidze and win a decision, though Dolidze could pull off a surprise finish.

decision, five rounds
"I'm GNA take the imav to win a pretty close decision here I think this does go the full five rounds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Cody acknowledges both fighters are hard to read but leans to Dolidze as a plus money underdog. He notes Dolidze's Georgian toughness, improved cardio, and power, but worries about his low striking volume and reluctance to wrestle. He thinks if Dolidze stands and trades, Imavov's volume could outpoint him, but the dog price is worth a shot.

"plus 170 Roman deletes I'll take that Underdog shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Imavov has cleaner technique and more paths to victory, but Dolidze's forward pressure in a five-round fight could be the difference maker. Imavov needs to stay within himself, pick his shots from distance, and possibly cut Dolidze to sway judges. The host is hesitant due to the line and the five-round duration, but officially picks Imavov by decision.

Dolidze as a potential dog is mentioned, but no specific prop bet.
"I always like going with a fighter that has the cleaner technique more paths to victory... but at minus 160 it's a tough line... at five rounds Del's forward pressure could be the Difference Maker."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Paul is torn on the main event, calling it a pass from a betting perspective. He sees Imavov's cardio issues and Dolidze's size and strength advantages, but notes Dolidze's low output and questionable fight IQ. He slightly leans to Dolidze at plus money but says he likely won't bet it.

"I'll ever so slightly just go with that plus money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov over Roman Dolidze, predicting a third or fourth round TKO. He notes Dolidze is a slugger who struggles against fighters with good footwork on the back foot, which is Imavov's strength. He cites Imavov's performance against Sean Strickland and his wrestling ability to take down Chris Curtis. He believes Imavov will work Dolidze over with front kicks and low kicks, eventually catching him with a one-two down the pipe.

third or fourth round TKO
"I'm gonna go with nasaden mov over Roman delzy... I'll say third or fourth round TKO for nasaden mavo."
LOSS vs Chris Curtis
No Contest (accidental clash of heads) R2 3:04 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 57 of 84 67% 59 of 86 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:22
Chris Curtis 0 26 of 61 42% 34 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 29 of 36 80% 31 of 38 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:07
Chris Curtis 0 15 of 32 46% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 28 of 48 58% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Chris Curtis 0 11 of 29 37% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 57 of 84 67% 27 of 48 8 of 12 22 of 24 54 of 80 3 of 4 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 26 of 61 42% 4 of 28 8 of 18 14 of 15 26 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 29 of 36 80% 11 of 16 4 of 6 14 of 14 28 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 15 of 32 46% 1 of 12 5 of 10 9 of 10 15 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Nassourdine Imavov 28 of 48 58% 16 of 32 4 of 6 8 of 10 26 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 11 of 29 37% 3 of 16 3 of 8 5 of 5 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov, but with hesitation. He notes that Chris Curtis is a great counter-striker but often backs up, which could lead to a decision loss. He believes Imavov's size and forward pressure will earn him a close decision. However, he admits he has never picked a Chris Curtis fight correctly, so he is fading his own pick.

"I picked nasridine which means Chris is going to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady leans towards Imavov because Chris Curtis is a slow starter who often loses the first round. He notes that both fighters are durable with only one KO loss combined, so the fight likely goes to decision. Imavov's early activity should win him the first round, and the later rounds will be close. He picks Imavov by decision.

fight goes to decision
"I do lean towards the Nazarene imove offside is going to be this reason... Chris Curtis is a very slow starter... I don't see him knocking out nazarethov... this fight is Going the Distance more often than not"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Cody picks Imavov, arguing that Curtis has taken too much damage recently (319 significant strikes in 4 fights) and is fighting too frequently. He notes that Curtis' style has reverted to a Philly shell, and he struggles against rangy fighters who stay on the outside. Imavov has speed, youth, and a long jab, and can fight at range. He expects Imavov to stay on the outside and pick Curtis apart.

"I think he just stays at the outside and paints a picture"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Connor agrees with Zane and picks Chris Curtis, though he is hesitant. He likes the way Curtis fights, describing him as a systematic pocket boxer with great hands and defense. Connor worries that Imavov could frustrate Curtis in short bursts, but notes that it's a three-round fight, so two rounds of Imavov's bursts might be enough. He ultimately sides with Curtis because he is a better fighter and more capable of closing doors when momentum shifts.

Curtis over 2.0 +105, currently +131; Imavov opened -116, now -146
"I'll pick I'll I'll stick with you and pick Chris Curtis here. I don't like it, but yeah, you see what I'm saying."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Daniel Levi picks Chris Curtis, agreeing with the co-host that Imavov does not have the volume or gas tank to implement the blueprint to beat Curtis. He notes that Curtis has excellent boxing, takedown defense, and body shots that can sap Imavov's cardio. He points out that Imavov has historically low output and has faded in fights, while Curtis is a dangerous counter-puncher. He believes the line offers value on Curtis.

"I really like Chris Curtis here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2023 (fight day)
Nassourdine Imavov

James picks Imavov to win by 29-28 decision. He thinks Imavov's range control and lead leg work will be key, and that Curtis struggles with fighters who don't stand in the pocket. He expects Imavov to win rounds one and two, with Curtis possibly taking round three. James notes Curtis is a good counter-striker but may take time to find his timing. He suggests live betting Curtis after round one if he loses it, as Curtis will likely be a bigger underdog then.

Chris Curtis KO round 3 at +2100 (small sprinkle)
"I'm calling it about a 29-28 win for a Marvel van"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Imavov's distance striking and kicking game should keep Curtis at range, frustrating his pocket boxing. Curtis has a significant size disadvantage (5-inch height difference) and may struggle to close distance. However, Curtis has KO power and could turn the fight if he drags Imavov into exchanges. Low confidence due to Curtis's finishing ability.

"I feel as though he is just more equipped to win this stylistic matchup not to mention the size disadvantage that Chris Curtis will be at"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Paul leans toward Imavov, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He notes that Curtis struggles to get into the pocket against fighters who stay at range, as seen in the Hermansson fight. The big cage in Vancouver will give Imavov room to move. However, Paul admits he cannot bet against Curtis with his own money because he likes him as a fighter.

"I'm with you I'm picking imov but I couldn't I couldn't I couldn't better but against our guy uh Chris Curtis with my actual money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis as an underdog, noting Imavov slows down in fights and has cardio issues. He believes Curtis has great takedown defense and can stop Imavov's takedowns, making Imavov worry. He also mentions Curtis trains with Sean Strickland, who recently beat Imavov. He predicts Curtis wins by decision, possibly with a third-round TKO.

underdog pick, noted odds
"I am going to be picking Chris Curtis as an underdog here over nasadena mavov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis despite acknowledging that Imavov has the stylistic advantages to frustrate Curtis like Jack Hermansson did. He notes that Imavov is tall, rangy, and faster than Hermansson, but lacks consistency and tends to gas. Zane trusts Curtis's ability to hang around and snatch momentum if Imavov loses a step, and he prefers Curtis's boxing and pocket fighting. He admits it's a bad style matchup but thinks Curtis is the better fighter.

Curtis over 2.0 +105, currently +131; Imavov opened -116, now -146
"I'm gonna pick Curtis here. I think the big the other big thing here is the buckley fight... Curtis is much more capable of taking small swings of momentum and using them to close doors than buckley is."
LOSS vs Sean Strickland
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Strickland 0 182 of 405 44% 194 of 420 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:12
Nassourdine Imavov 0 123 of 269 45% 131 of 277 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Strickland 0 24 of 74 32% 24 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Nassourdine Imavov 0 19 of 50 38% 19 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sean Strickland 0 22 of 72 30% 27 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:49
Nassourdine Imavov 0 22 of 58 37% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean Strickland 0 47 of 78 60% 48 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Sean Strickland 0 57 of 100 57% 60 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Nassourdine Imavov 0 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
5 Sean Strickland 0 32 of 81 39% 35 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
Nassourdine Imavov 0 35 of 65 53% 38 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Strickland 182 of 405 44% 134 of 347 38 of 48 10 of 10 175 of 396 7 of 9 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 123 of 269 45% 67 of 207 41 of 46 15 of 16 104 of 248 19 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Strickland 24 of 74 32% 16 of 64 5 of 7 3 of 3 24 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 19 of 50 38% 8 of 36 8 of 10 3 of 4 19 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean Strickland 22 of 72 30% 13 of 60 8 of 11 1 of 1 21 of 70 1 of 2 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 22 of 58 37% 14 of 50 4 of 4 4 of 4 19 of 54 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Sean Strickland 47 of 78 60% 31 of 61 12 of 13 4 of 4 47 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 24 of 45 53% 12 of 33 9 of 9 3 of 3 23 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Sean Strickland 57 of 100 57% 47 of 87 8 of 11 2 of 2 56 of 99 1 of 1 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 23 of 51 45% 10 of 36 8 of 10 5 of 5 21 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Sean Strickland 32 of 81 39% 27 of 75 5 of 6 0 of 0 27 of 75 5 of 6 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 35 of 65 53% 23 of 52 12 of 13 0 of 0 22 of 51 13 of 14 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nassourdine Imavov vs. Sean Strickland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Imavov (-115), Strickland (-105)

Round 1
We have reached the main event of the evening, one that the organization did not have in mind coming into 2023. Instead of Kelvin Gastelum, rising Frenchman Imavov (12-3, 4-1 UFC) will be battling Strickland (25-5, 12-5 UFC). Rather than fighting at middleweight, the two will be competing at light heavyweight. The weight difference is fairly stark, with Imavov clocking in at 194 pounds, a whole 10 pounds lighter than Strickland (204). Strickland will try to turn things around, as he is currently riding the first losing skid of his career, while Imavov has earned three straight wins on his own ledger. The last fight of the card will be joined by referee Mark Smith, and the two men are happy to be competing tonight and touch gloves. Strickland gets right in his foe’s face, but Imavov is the one striking first with a few straight punches and a low kick. The Frenchman connects with a left hook, and Strickland responds with a one-two down the pipe. Strickland uses his outstretched jab to parry a few punches, and he absorbs a punch at the end of it. Imavov winds up with a huge right hand over the top, and Strickland takes it flush and rolls to fire back with a one-two. Strickland prepares to shoulder roll, and he strings three punches together including a left hand straight down the middle. Strickland throws a front kick, and the two are warned for outstretched fingers while they come together. They hand-fight with long reaches, and Strickland finds an opening to kick the liver. Strickland slaps at the lead calf, and he hops away when Imavov charges. Imavov reaches Strickland with a right, and Strickland responds cleanly in kind to stun Imavov. Strickland reaches his man with punches in bunches, and Imavov tries to spin with a no-look elbow to no avail. Strickland rushes forward, pushing the pace and throwing hands, and he eats a few punches and swings much harder than he has in several fights. The wild swings of “Tarzan” lead into a clinch, and he presses Imavov to the wall and scores a short left on the break. Strickland leans back from a jab, and he absorbs a front kick and swats away a leaping right hand. Strickland gets in a jab as he works his way forward, and he wings a huge right hand that skims off the Frenchman’s hair. Imavov ducks and uses the top of his skull to block a punch, and Strickland does not blink and continues to walk forward. The American sees a telegraphed overhand right come at him so that he can counter with three or four punches, and these two overcommit to several powerful blows that blow back the hair of those seated in the first row of the Apex. Strickland plods forward, landing two punches and getting tied up right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 2
The middleweight expats meet right in the center of the cage to begin the second round, and they continue practically right where they left off. Strickland leads the dance, coming forward and pressuring the Frenchman actively. Imavov swings wildly, with a huge right hand skimming past Strickland’s shoulder. Strickland kicks the body and strings a few punches into the combination to follow, and this leads to a clinch. Strickland protests that Imavov is grabbing his glove, but Smith does not intervene or remark on it. The fighters split up, and Strickland puts a one-two together and unloads with a hellacious right hand on the button. Imavov absorbs it surprisingly, and he starts swinging back dangerously. Both men are wearing it and slightly hurt from the brief brawl that ensued. Strickland changes levels suddenly to trip Imavov to the mat, but he cannot hold him there for long. Imavov walks up the wall with it at his back, and he pushes off with a front kick to gain some space. Imavov lands a right hand, and Strickland replies with a one-two and a wild right hand. Neither fighter appears quite the technical wizard as per usual as they flail and swing awkwardly arcing punches at one another, and this results in one more clinch. Imavov eventually escapes, and he times a Strickland jab to smash him in the face with a right hand. Strickland gets shoved back with a knee, elbow and punch, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Imavov

Round 3
Round 3 begins with tit-for-tat strikes from one man and the other. Strickland breaks up this exchange with a leg kick, and he nails the Frenchman with a left hand and a right to follow. Imavov welcomes the brief brawl, and they both score with punishing blows and either budge an inch. They break away from their proverbial phone-booth fight to let Imavov circle on the outside, and he flirts with a high kick and suddenly reaches with a straight right hand. Strickland rolls with a punch and scores a left, and he cannot get out of the way from a left on the jaw. With his chin tucked, Strickland does not bat an eye, and the two proceed to stand right in front of one another punching the other in the face. Strickland catches the hands of his opponent and swipes out a left hand, and he marches forward to snap out a few jabs. Imavov dives into a single that misses by a mile, and Strickland lets him back up and shrugs off a few punches. When Imavov kicks low, Strickland counters him with a left over the top. Strickland jabs his way in to closer exchanges, and he scoops a right hand that slugs right into Imavov’s chops. Imavov bounces on his feet to shake things off, and they trade front kicks to the belly. Strickland times a counter on the jaw, and the pace has understandably slowed after how hard the two not-middleweights were throwing for the first few rounds. Strickland jabs, Imavov responds, and this spurs Strickland into action with a big right hand and a left. Imavov cannot dodge a body kick, and he lets Strickland grab him and tries to spin with an elbow. Strickland ducks it after landing a front kick, and the round comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 4
The championship rounds have been reached, and this is a first for France’s Imavov. Strickland flusters him out of the gate with a low kick, a body kick and several jabs. Strickland pushes out a one-two before Imavov can respond, and Imavov pushes forward but only hand-fights. Strickland kicks the ribs and smacks Imavov with another fierce one-two, and this leads to Imavov grabbing his hands standing. Imavov presses forward with his shoulder into a clinch situation, but Strickland shrugs it off and gets back to his preferred striking range. Strickland paws out a few punches and gets his head snapped back with a left, but he drives the ball of his foot to the body in response. Imavov swats kicks his foe’s way, but they are half-hearted. Imavov absorbs a few punches from up top, and he answers by throwing fire. Strickland pops Imavov with a right hand, and his sheer momentum knocks Imavov to his back. Strickland does not want to take him to the ground, and instead they return to the clinch up against the cage wall. Strickland uses his full body weight as a weapon, as if he wanted to squeeze Imavov through the fence like French Play-Do. Imavov manages to break off and escape with a right hand over the guard, and Strickland makes him pay with a short combination. Strickland is confident in his approach, calmly walking the French fighter down and smacking him upside the head with his fists. Imavov flails and tries to parry the blows with his outstretched arms, but Strickland still manages to find his dome repeatedly. Imavov bends over upon receipt of a body kick, and Strickland pours it on with several more unanswered blows. Imavov goes for a clinch, and Strickland walks him from one side of the cage to the other before releasing him gingerly. The round ends, and both men appear spent.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 5
The last round commences, and Strickland strikes first with a front kick and a few punches. Imavov swings back as his punches careen off the guard, and Strickland snipes him from afar. When Imavov tries to come out swinging, Strickland intercepts him with a front kick to the belly. Imavov unloads with heavy blows, and Strickland wears them well and greets him in the middle of the cage with a flurry of his own. The two close in as they fatigue after an exchange, and they clinch up. Imavov changes his offense to slashing elbows from up tight, and Strickland dodges the brunt of them and splits. Strickland punches his way to close the distance, and Imavov catches him and tries to slice him with elbows. Strickland breaks off and connects with a jab, before going back to the clinch to frustrate the Frenchman. “Tarzan” takes the most dangerous tools away from a desperate Imavov with the clinches, and he uses his jabs and twos to keep Imavov honest. Imavov tries to break off when Strickland latches on to him, or gets off a singular elbow, but they are not enough to stave Strickland off. Imavov breaks off and looses a fury of blows, and Strickland retaliates with a slow but steady barrage. Imavov smashes two elbows on the orbital, and he pushes Strickland to the wall and breaks free. Strickland ducks down and right into an elbow, and Imavov meets him with a knee up the middle. Imavov throws with everything he has, swinging recklessly and wildly while Strickland is doing some of the same. Imavov ducks two booming hooks, and Strickland nods and motion down to the floor. The two fighters give it everything they have with an exhausted swarm of punches, knees, elbows and anything else they come up with. Strickland bullies Imavov back to the wall, and the final horn blares to signal an end to the fight card. The short turnaround appeared to work in his favor, as he should right the ship after this 25-minute affair. Next week, the UFC takes to Brazil for the first time in years. Two belts will be on the line, including one in the UFC’s very first tetralogy match, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (48-47 Strickland)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (48-47 Strickland)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (48-47 Strickland)

The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Nassourdine Imavov via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Imavov because he believes Sean Strickland is a broken fighter after the Alex Pereira knockout. He notes Strickland's recent losses and short notice, while Imavov has power and grappling. He thinks Strickland's jab-heavy style won't be enough and Imavov controls the pace. He mentions Imavov's cardio concerns are overblown and that Strickland's only path is if Imavov tires.

"I gotta go with imov off here and I think you get some really good money on him at minus 109"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Big Brady picks Kelvin Gastelum for the upset, citing concerns about Imavov's cardio over five rounds. He notes that Imavov faded in the third round of his fight against Buckley and has never gone five rounds, while Gastelum has championship-round experience against top competition. He believes Gastelum's wrestling could be a key path to victory, taking Imavov down to tire him out and avoid striking exchanges. However, he admits he doesn't feel great about the pick and likely won't bet on the fight.

Not betting on this fight; Gastelum by decision
"I'm gonna take a gaslim here for the upset I don't feel great about it like I said I'm very high in imovob but the five rounds scares the crap out of me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Cody picks Strickland, citing his durability, high striking volume (e.g., 152 against Cannonier), and takedown defense. He notes Imavov's questionable cardio and level of competition (outside top 15). He expects a 25-minute fight or a late stoppage by Strickland, but acknowledges the line is 50/50 and not a high-confidence play.

"I think I'm gonna lean towards Sean Strickland think this one probably goes to 25 minutes if not like a late fourth or fifth round stoppage by Sean Strickland"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Connor picks Strickland because Imavov has yet to look like a comfortable three-round fighter, often fading in the third round due to inefficient movement and tension. He notes that Strickland is insanely durable, calm, and consistent round to round, and that Imavov's style of head-hunting and inefficient striking will be a problem against Strickland's pressure. Connor also mentions that Imavov has feasted on shorter opponents and struggled against fighters who can get into range and trade, which Strickland does well. He acknowledges the short notice and weight change but believes Strickland's constant training mitigates those factors.

Odds: Strickland opened +145, dropped to -120, currently -110. Imavov opened -170, jumped to +100, currently -112. Connor says he's okay with even odds given the short notice and last-minute change.
"I'm going to bank with you that he's a guy who always stays ready. Who's always sparring. He doesn't need to gameplay and he's not going to come in with something wildly different."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Jacob is confident in Imavov, having bet him at +100. He argues Strickland is overrated and not the same after the Pereira loss, citing his inactivity in the Cannonier fight. He believes Imavov's power at 205 will be too much and Strickland will be tentative. He sees Strickland's only path to victory if Imavov gasses, but thinks Imavov showed heart against Buckley.

Bet at +100 for premium members
"I jumped on at plus 100 I don't think you're gonna see that again"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Paul leans towards Imavov because he has been preparing for this card while Strickland is coming off a short-notice fight and the holidays. He questions Strickland's training and notes that judges are crediting damaging strikes more than volume jabs. However, he is not rushing to bet this fight, calling it a 50/50 main event.

"I'm gonna ever lean ever so slightly towards Nassar Dean imov he's been getting ready for this exact card I don't know what Strickland's really been up to"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Zane picks Strickland because he believes Imavov's style is a bad matchup for him. He notes that Imavov is dependent on physically bullying opponents and hasn't experienced someone who pushes back in physical tie-ups like Strickland. Zane also points out that Imavov's cardio issues are likely due to being too tense and inefficient, not weight cutting, and that Strickland doesn't give anything away. He acknowledges the size difference but thinks Strickland's consistency and pressure will be key.

Odds: Strickland opened +145, dropped to -120, currently -110. Imavov opened -170, jumped to +100, currently -112. Zane says he's okay with even odds.
"I got to pick Strickland here. Like I if I'm just thinking about this fight from a base point, like thinking of the tape I've been watching, thinking of how much him evolve is willing to let his opponents dictate …"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 51 of 109 46% 68 of 142 2 of 7 28% 2 0 3:56
Joaquin Buckley 0 46 of 174 26% 55 of 183 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 15 of 35 42% 21 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:43
Joaquin Buckley 0 10 of 48 20% 13 of 51 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 56 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:10
Joaquin Buckley 0 10 of 45 22% 12 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:03
Joaquin Buckley 0 26 of 81 32% 30 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 51 of 109 46% 40 of 90 9 of 13 2 of 6 36 of 88 8 of 10 7 of 11
Joaquin Buckley 46 of 174 26% 27 of 145 8 of 13 11 of 16 44 of 171 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 15 of 35 42% 11 of 29 4 of 5 0 of 1 6 of 21 4 of 5 5 of 9
Joaquin Buckley 10 of 48 20% 3 of 35 1 of 4 6 of 9 10 of 47 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Nassourdine Imavov 14 of 30 46% 12 of 24 1 of 3 1 of 3 12 of 28 0 of 0 2 of 2
Joaquin Buckley 10 of 45 22% 4 of 37 3 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nassourdine Imavov 22 of 44 50% 17 of 37 4 of 5 1 of 2 18 of 39 4 of 5 0 of 0
Joaquin Buckley 26 of 81 32% 20 of 73 4 of 4 2 of 4 24 of 79 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joaquin Buckley vs. Nassourdine Imavov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Imavov (-255), Buckley (+215)

Round 1
On fight day, this relatively high-stakes middleweight tilt shifted from the prelims to the “featured fight of the night” slot, as proud Frenchman Imavov (11-3, 3-1 UFC) is a member of the top 15 in his division. Buckley (15-4, 5-2 UFC), the owner of a number of highlight-reel victories including one of the greatest knockouts in the history of the sport, will face him as he seeks to make the Parisian audience sad and chalk up one more name on his ledger. This potentially violent clash at 185 pounds will draw officiating from referee Marc Goddard, who is nearly forced to step in when the two angrily meet in the middle of the cage before what might be a magnificent melee. Buckley is already the least popular man in the building right now, and he starts off aggressively with a high kick that bounces off the shoulder. Imavov shrugs it off and comes forward, with a more traditional martial arts stance, prepared for the head kick that will almost certainly come towards him. One more does fly, and Imavov ignores it and tries to reach out with his jab. While they measure one another with range strikes, commentator Michael Bisping gives his best Mr. T impression. Buckley throws a low kick, and the Frenchman meets him with a straight right hand over the top. Imavov aims an uppercut when Buckley closes the distance, but the American plays it off and clinches up. Buckley separates, and Imavov follows him enraged. They slug it out, and a front kick from Imavov sends Buckley’s mouthpiece goes flying. Goddard steps in to allow Buckley to replace it, and Imavov ignores him and wants to keep fighting. Goddard lays down the law, shoving the French fighter back until they reset. When they resume, Imavov kicks and falls over, and he springs back up to attack with a right hand that drops Buckley to a knee against the wire. Buckley powers his way back up and throws and elbow, and he wings a pair of punches as Imavov talks at him. “New Mansa” kicks the leg, and he swarms forward with punches that Imavov rolls with. Imavov sticks him with a jab, and he uses his head movement and footwork to evade the lion’s share of a long combination from Buckley. The American does land a punch as he surges forward, but Imavov escapes largely untouched and resets. Buckley comes up short with a low kick, and Imavov comes in with a knee to intercept a high kick. Buckley pushes Imavov against the fence, and he fires off an elbow as Imavov responds in kind. Imavov counters a rushing takedown from Buckley to push the American on his back, and he climbs right to full mount and begins to batter Buckley with unanswered punches. Buckley turns over to his belly and shells up, but before the stoppage can materialize, Buckley is saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Imavov

Round 2
Imavov keeps both hands outstretched as the second round opens, with neither man committing to much of a strike in the first 30 seconds. Buckley lands a low kick, and as he rushes forward, Imavov pops him with a pair of right hands that send Buckley running to the side. Buckley gathers himself and darts in with an overhand left, and Imavov pushes him off with his hand and jams him in the eye with his thumb. Goddard issues a hard warning to Imavov for his fingers outstretched and eye pokes, and they get back to it after a few seconds. Buckley is fired up and throws big punches, and Imavov stays moving and away from the worst of the strikes. Imavov catches Buckley on the way in with longer punches, with his range and footwork giving Buckley fits. Buckley walks through a left hand so that he can clip the Frenchman with a pair of huge left hands, and Imavov rolls with the punches and escapes out the side as the back of his head bumps a cameraman. Buckley throws caution to the wind as he jumps in and out, and his strike attempts force him to move quickly in and out so that Imavov cannot snipe him from a distance. Imavov times a lunging strike to duck down and hit a double, and he puts Buckley down on the mat with emphasis. Imavov steps over to half guard on the side to start blasting Buckley in the face, and Buckley turns in hopes of standing but ends up giving up his back. Imavov is quick to hook in the body triangle without crushing it tightly, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke. The Frenchman cannot get his forearm under the chin, so he crushes on the face, but Buckley grits it out and turns his head enough to lessen the squeeze. Imavov starts talking to Buckley as he goes for chokes, and he belts him with an elbow that slashes a cut open as blood sprays from the side of Buckley’s head. Imavov squeezes for another choke, and Buckley’s mouthpiece squirts out of his mouth. Imavov slaps Buckley on the side of the head repeatedly with an open palm until the round ends, and he does not immediately get up and let Buckley go, forcing Goddard to once more get involved.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Imavov

Round 3
Cooler heads prevail to start off the last round, and Buckley opens up as the immediate aggressor, knowing he is down on the scorecards. Buckley chops down the lead leg of his opponent on both sides, and he shrugs off an uppercut that catches him about as cleanly as one can so that he can brawl. Buckley leaps forward into action, and he tags Imavov several times and knocks the Frenchman back to the wire. Imavov breaks free of a clinch and threatens with a takedown, but Buckley is upright and able to keep coming strong. Buckley starts swinging wildly, with Mortal Kombat-esque uppercuts and ridiculously arcing punches that slam into Imavov’s guard again and again. Buckley is putting everything he has into the punches, and Imavov is able to slip most of them and block many of the others. A few get through, but Imavov’s chin is able to tank them, and he is able to counter effectively and keep Buckley honest. Buckley telegraphs with wide swings, and they come in combinations and not as single strikes. Buckley puts his foot on the gas, lobbing bombs, and Imavov is able to wear them as he begins to fatigue. The Frenchman attempts to take the fight down, and Buckley has none of it and keeps winging haymakers. Imavov tries his best to slow the fight down, and Buckley cracks him with an elbow and fires off an eight-punch hook combination. Buckley stuffs a takedown and fires a blistering knee that would have felled lesser men, but Imavov is ironclad in front of him. Buckley pushes off of a clinch with sheer muscle, tripping Imavov to the mat, but he does not follow. He lets Imavov back up so that he can load up on one last series of punches. Imavov showboats and salutes the crowd as he ducks and dips most of Buckley’s wild strikes, and he pops Buckley in the chops a few times just to keep active on his own end. As the last few seconds tick off the clock, “New Mansa” pours it on to chase a finish, and Imavov is simply too evasive to absorb much of the onslaught. The fight ends, and Buckley collapses to his back, totally spent. What a brawl this turned into. As the 15-minute furious fight comes to a close, the two appear to squash their beef, and for good reason, as they just threw down for three hard rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (29-28 Imavov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (29-28 Imavov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (29-28 Imavov)

The Official Result
Nassourdine Imavov def. Joaquin Buckley via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley as a lean because he believes Buckley is faster, more powerful, and more dangerous in a kickboxing match. He notes Imavov doesn't use takedowns much, so it becomes a striking fight. He suggests betting under on rounds or fight doesn't go the distance, and recommends a win inside distance decision no action prop for Buckley.

Under on rounds (1.5); fight does not go the distance; win inside distance decision no action
"i do like buckley here and even though he's a good grappler imam doesn't really have those takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady picks Nassourdine Imavov to win by knockout in the second round. He believes Imavov is the better striker and more durable, while Buckley gets hurt often and has been knocked out multiple times. He expects Buckley to have moments, but Imavov will eventually land a big shot and finish him.

second round knockout
"give me involved to win by knockout i say second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Cody leans toward Nassourdine Imavov but is not confident. He notes that Imavov has looked better recently, but his takedown defense and cardio are questionable. Buckley is physically strong and has power, but he is inconsistent and has poor cardio. Cody thinks the fight could go either way and prefers the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +155.

Fight goes to decision (+155)
"I'm leaning towards notre dame imav to get the win but actually what i think is actually the best value um of this fight his fight goes to decision is plus 155."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Daniel Levi leans toward Nassourdine Imavov but thinks the -275 price is too steep. He acknowledges Buckley's improvements and power, but believes Imavov is the better fighter with reach and straight punches. He does not bet.

"I do lean nazarian imavov man for sure I just don't know if I minus 275 is not a lean price"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The host likes Imavov's recent improvements, especially his takedown defense and range striking. He believes Imavov will keep the fight at distance, use his kicks, and avoid Buckley's power. He expects Imavov to win by decision, though he notes the -255 price is a bit steep. He also considers the over 1.5 rounds if the line is favorable.

over 1.5 rounds (minus 160 to minus 150)
"I like Imavov here minus 255 a little bit out of my price range honestly."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Paul also leans toward Imavov but is hesitant. He agrees with Cody that the line is scary and that Buckley has a puncher's chance. Paul mentions that Imavov is fighting in France, which could be an advantage, but he is not confident enough to bet the moneyline.

"I kind of agree... i just think the line kind of scares me off of it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley as an underdog over Nassourdine Imavov. He believes Buckley has improved significantly since his early UFC losses and has momentum, while Imavov has been inactive and may overlook Buckley. He compares Buckley's style to Mike Tyson's head movement and hooks, which he thinks will trouble Imavov's inside game. He predicts Buckley will win a 29-28 decision, winning the first two rounds and losing the third.

Buckley wins by decision 29-28
"i'm gonna go with joaquin buckley here over nasa dina mavov i like a nice joaquin buckley underdog pick"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya but is getting less confident. He notes that Adesanya's striking looked great in his last fight against Dricus du Plessis, but he was ultimately finished. He believes Adesanya is the better striker and if the fight stays on the feet, he wins. However, he worries about Imavov's wrestling and the possibility of Adesanya's decline. He will not bet on Adesanya.

Will not bet on Adesanya.
"I will not be betting on Israel at asagna I don't quite know if his career is about to fall off a cliff"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is not overly excited for this fight but picks Israel Adesanya. He notes Adesanya looked bad against Strickland but good against Du Plessis before getting submitted. He thinks Imavov can wrestle but lacks the cardio to do so effectively, and will slow down as the fight goes on. Brady expects Adesanya to pick him apart late and win a decision. He has no betting interest.

decision
"I got to go aagna here and osani to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Connor picks Adesanya, arguing that Imavov lacks the pressure and cardio to exploit Adesanya's age. He notes that Adesanya's jab and kicking game remain effective, and Imavov has never shown the ability to maintain a high pace or wrestle consistently enough to trouble Adesanya. Connor believes Imavov would need a radically new approach to win, which he hasn't demonstrated.

"I just kind of have to pick Otis on you by default here and unless he has completely fallen apart or Imavov has leveled up or come up with a really good strategy then."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

James picks Imavov to win, citing Adesanya's decline in durability, reaction time, and motivation. He notes Imavov has advantages in wrestling and grappling, and that Adesanya's recent submission loss to Dricus du Plessis showed poor defensive grappling. He believes Imavov can win by submission, decision, or even knockout due to Adesanya's declining chin. However, he admits it's not his most confident pick.

Imavov by submission at +850 mentioned as a possible play; also suggests Imavov decision as a potential prop.
"I'm going to pick nasad imov to win this fight I think that he's catching Iz he at the right time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is facing a kickboxer that allows him to showcase his high-level performances, unlike the wrestling-heavy styles of Strickland and du Plessis. He will set traps, spring them on Imavov, and prove he is still one of the best middleweights. Expect a 25-minute decision win.

"I believe this is the type of kickboxer that Adesanya has been wanting to go against so that he can showcase that he's still capable of high level performances... look for Adesanya to pick apart Imavov over the course of 25 minutes and win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov to win by submission in the third round, possibly an arm triangle. He believes Imavov's grappling and clinch work will be key, as Adesanya has weaknesses in the clinch and on the ground. He notes Imavov nearly beat Sean Strickland and has good takedown entries. He thinks Adesanya's motivation may be lacking after his losses.

submission, third round arm triangle
"I'm going to go with nasad Nam mov and I'm actually going to take him by submission third round arm triangle"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Zane picks Adesanya, agreeing with Connor that Imavov's style doesn't match up well. He emphasizes that Imavov is not a pressure fighter and struggles with pace, while Adesanya's kicking and jab are still effective. Zane notes that Imavov would need to wrestle consistently, but his takedowns are often from clinch exchanges, which Adesanya handles well.

"I don't think that he's ever shown really the late cardio to make out of Sonia like flow down and really pay for putting on a great performance."
Comments (1)
AL
Alan 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Fuck