UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024 · Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 Next Fight
Age 25
Height 5' 7"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Felipe dos Santos
3.75 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.8 SApM
41.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
20.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Victor Altamirano
4.58 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
3.82 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
2.88 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Felipe dos Santos
Moneyline
DraftKings -285
KO/TKO
FanDuel +430
Submission
BetRivers +750
Decision
FanDuel +105
Victor Altamirano
Moneyline
BetRivers +255
KO/TKO
BetWay +1400
Submission
BetRivers +1200
Decision
BetRivers +460
Felipe dos Santos - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 58 of 97 59% 71 of 112 4 of 6 66% 0 0 6:33
Felipe dos Santos 0 51 of 104 49% 92 of 147 0 of 3 0% 1 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Felipe dos Santos 0 15 of 32 46% 23 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
2 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 29 of 51 56% 42 of 66 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:36
Felipe dos Santos 0 25 of 36 69% 45 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
3 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 18 of 23 78% 18 of 23 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:18
Felipe dos Santos 0 11 of 36 30% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lone'er Kavanagh 58 of 97 59% 37 of 71 11 of 15 10 of 11 29 of 56 3 of 6 26 of 35
Felipe dos Santos 51 of 104 49% 28 of 67 9 of 21 14 of 16 28 of 77 4 of 4 19 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lone'er Kavanagh 11 of 23 47% 1 of 12 2 of 3 8 of 8 10 of 19 1 of 4 0 of 0
Felipe dos Santos 15 of 32 46% 3 of 12 5 of 12 7 of 8 13 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Lone'er Kavanagh 29 of 51 56% 25 of 45 3 of 4 1 of 2 5 of 20 1 of 1 23 of 30
Felipe dos Santos 25 of 36 69% 18 of 27 3 of 4 4 of 5 8 of 16 2 of 2 15 of 18
3 Lone'er Kavanagh 18 of 23 78% 11 of 14 6 of 8 1 of 1 14 of 17 1 of 1 3 of 5
Felipe dos Santos 11 of 36 30% 7 of 28 1 of 5 3 of 3 7 of 31 0 of 0 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh, emphasizing his incredible speed and composure. He acknowledges that Kavanagh hasn't faced top competition and that Felipe's forward pressure will test him. He wants to see if Kavanagh can fight backwards and counter-strike. Ultimately, he trusts Kavanagh's speed and potential, though he admits we'll learn a lot about him in this fight.

"ultimately I'm going to pick him cuz he's just so damn fast"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Brady likes Kavanagh's clean striking and power, and notes dos Santos has poor takedown defense and striking defense. He thinks Kavanagh can mix in takedowns if needed. Despite dos Santos being tough, Brady predicts a decision win for Kavanagh.

Kavanagh by decision
"give me lonni Kavanagh here I do think Felipe dos Santos is very tough ... so I'll say it's a lonni Kavanagh by decision win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The host considers Kavanagh one of the hottest UK prospects and expects him to showcase his skills. Dos Santos might make it close early, but as Kavanagh's damage piles up, he will cause dos Santos to break, leading to a late finish or decision win.

late finish or decision
"Kavanagh is one of the hottest prospects to come out of the UK in a while and I think that he'll be able to showcase those chops here against dos Santos."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The Guru picks Lone'er Kavanagh, believing he is crisper on the feet and has good grappling instincts. He notes that Kavanagh is compact and beats opponents to the punch, while dos Santos has been in many scraps and may be more damaged. He expects a TKO in the second or third round, as Kavanagh's pressure and body work will wear down dos Santos.

TKO round 2 or 3
"I'm gonna go with Lona kavana over Felipe dos Santos I think Lona kavar would smoke Victor Al Morana"
LOSS vs André Lima
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
André Lima 0 38 of 76 50% 69 of 122 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:41
Felipe dos Santos 0 18 of 37 48% 43 of 70 2 of 2 100% 2 0 9:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 André Lima 0 25 of 47 53% 30 of 53 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:41
Felipe dos Santos 0 10 of 23 43% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
2 André Lima 0 8 of 17 47% 16 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Felipe dos Santos 0 6 of 9 66% 20 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:06
3 André Lima 0 5 of 12 41% 23 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Felipe dos Santos 0 2 of 5 40% 10 of 14 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
André Lima 38 of 76 50% 14 of 45 14 of 19 10 of 12 33 of 68 5 of 7 0 of 1
Felipe dos Santos 18 of 37 48% 5 of 21 6 of 7 7 of 9 14 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 André Lima 25 of 47 53% 7 of 26 11 of 13 7 of 8 21 of 41 4 of 5 0 of 1
Felipe dos Santos 10 of 23 43% 2 of 13 1 of 1 7 of 9 9 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 André Lima 8 of 17 47% 4 of 11 3 of 4 1 of 2 7 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0
Felipe dos Santos 6 of 9 66% 3 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 6 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 André Lima 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 0 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Felipe dos Santos 2 of 5 40% 0 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Felipe dos Santos vs. Andre Lima
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lima (-180), dos Santos (+150)

Round 1
Two promising young flyweights will try to take that next step to put their name in the large hat of contenders in the talent-rich division. Out of the vaunted Chute Boxe Diego Lima camp, dos Santos (8-1, 1 NC; 1-1 UFC) has his hair dyed in the customary blonde for the team and is ready for blood. Fellow countryman Lima (9-0, 2-0 UFC), who sports a neat hat walking to the cage, will be standing in his way putting his unbeaten record on the line. Referee Chris Tognoni will do his best to keep up with the two speedsters, and he clocks them in as they clap hands. Lima takes center stage and switches stances, and he hops back from a front kick aimed at his chest. Dos Santos aims kick to the side, and he lets fly three more kicks to varied targets before jumping in with a jab. Lima scores with a low kick but immediately has to deal with a counter body kick, and he dings his countryman with a left hand. Lima thumps a kick down low, and he scores an overhand right. As he backs off, he signals that he was poked in the eye. Tognoni sees it and calls time, telling Lima to take his time to recover and not hurry things. Tognoni tells dos Santos to be careful, and after 40 seconds, Lima is good to go. They resume where they left off, with Lima slowly advancing while working the front leg with a kick. Dos Santos darts in, misses, whiffs with a wheel kick and counters a right hand with his own right hook. Lima misses with a low kick, and he sees a front kick brush off his chest. Lima stalks his foe down and wings an elbow, and dos Santos ducks and ties him up while looking for a single. Lima leans back from a head kick, and he lines up a left hand while simultaneously dodging a spinning elbow. Lima’s flexibility is solid as he bends his back to dodge strikes, and he stomps out with a kick to the knee. Lima skirts away from the offense flying his way, seeing it coming while working his own weapons. A leg kick from Lima forces dos Santos to lift his limb up several times preemptively, and dos Santos spins with a back kick that bounces off the guard. As they scramble, dos Santos grabs hold of Lima from behind and trips him to the ground. Lima grabs the fence when standing up, and dos Santos is unable to mat return him due to the foul. Dos Santos leans and knees his opponent in the thigh, and he lifts Lima up a few times to chuck him to the floor. Lima slides out the back door after the second slam, where he twists around to claim top position and assume half guard. Dos Santos works to his feet, and Tognoni warns Lima to stop grabbing the cage. Dos Santos blasts Lima with a spinning elbow, and they both fall to the floor as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 dos Santos

Round 2
The Brazilians are primed and ready to brawl, with dos Santos letting kicks go when not throwing hands, while Lima walks him down with punches in bunches. Dos Santos gets off a front kick and chains it into a flying knee, catching Lima cleanly and forcing Lima to tie him up. The two jockey for position against the fence, and dos Santos breaks free thanks to his knees. They both paw out right hands, and dos Santos goes over the top with a high kick. Dos Santos shoots for a takedown, and Lima overwhelms him and throws him down to the mat. Lima passes easily to full mount, and dos Santos is frantic to defend himself from anything that comes at him. Lima elects to remain tightly pressed down on his opponent and considers an arm-triangle choke. Dos Santos defends the first effort, and when Lima turns to get a better bite at the apple, dos Santos protects against that attempt as well. Lima drops down a few right hands on the ear, and he presses his hand on dos Santos’ face and draws a warning from Tognoni. Dos Santos scoots his way to the side of the cage, but Lima remains in mount, smothering him in the position. Dos Santos keeps bucking and pushes off the wall with his foot, and Lima keeps stuck to his opponent so nullifyingly that Tognoni asks for more activity. The horn sounds with Lima not doing any appreciable damage from this position after over three minutes of control.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lima

Round 3
Lima offers a glove touch that is accepted, and dos Santos backpedals quickly to find an angle of attack. Lima proceeds to walk him down, blocking quick strikes and using his legs to check kicks. As they engage, Lima complains about something, and Tognoni confusedly pauses the fight. Lima tries to use Tognoni’s sleeve to wipe something on it, and Tognoni has the interpreter find out what the nature of the stoppage was. It turns out Lima needed to blow his nose, and Tognoni tells him he cannot do that and restarts the fight. It takes a few seconds for dos Santos to level change in pursuit of a takedown, and like before, Lima ends as the one on top. Dos Santos turns to give up his back when Lima moves to mount, and Lima gladly accepts this position and wraps his legs around the waist with a body lock. Dos Santos is warned for grabbing the glove, and once more it is proved that Dundasso is the greatest base for MMA, above wrestling or any other martial art. Lima shrugs off the foul and latches onto a rear-naked choke, and his forearm slides beneath the chin. While the submission would normally elicit the tap from 95% of the roster, dos Santos fights the grip and frees his neck from danger. Lima adjusts his grip and sneaks it under the chin once more, and dos Santos’ face turns a brilliant shade of red but he does not give up. “Lipe Detona” manages to survive a nearly completed RNC a second time, and he hand-fights to prevent another choke from getting set up. Dos Santos is otherwise shut down, forced to occasionally punch behind his own head, and he irritates Lima enough with these strikes to make Lima lay flat on his back. Lima raises his arms to celebrate that he is about to win, and dos Santos’ remaining swings go wide. The fight comes to a conclusion.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima (30-27 Lima)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima (30-27 Lima)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lima (29-28 Lima)

The Official Result
Andre Lima def. Felipe dos Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Angelo picks Felipe dos Santos because he is a dangerous, aggressive fighter who is good everywhere, and he believes André Lima is overhyped after beating a weak opponent and winning by a bite. He notes that Felipe is a plus 165 underdog and he placed a half-unit bet when the odds opened at even money. He does not plan to double down despite the better odds.

Angelo placed a half-unit bet on Felipe dos Santos at even money when the odds first dropped.
"I like Felipe here everybody who watched my breakdown last week knows that I like Felipe"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Big Brady picks Felipe dos Santos as the underdog to win by decision. He criticizes André Lima as a cheater and unimpressive, noting his close fights and split decision against Mitch Raposo. Brady believes dos Santos will make it a dogfight with volume advantage and sees a split decision. He also mentions a point deduction prop for Lima's cheating.

point deduction prop for André Lima
"I'm going to take the dog here and Felipe do Santos I think this one can go either way but one thing's for damn sure we're going to see Andre Lima grab the cage a couple we're going to see …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Cody picks dos Santos, arguing that Lima's cardio is suspect and he has missed weight multiple times. He notes dos Santos' performance against Manel Kape and his ability to get up from takedowns. He sees value at plus money and expects dos Santos to win.

"I'm in on Felipe do Santos as well"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
André Lima

Daniel likes Lima's striking and Jiu-Jitsu, and thinks he is the better fighter. He acknowledges concerns about Lima's cardio but isn't convinced they're valid. He notes that dos Santos leaves openings for body shots, calf kicks, and takedowns. He picks Lima to win, though he's not sure if it will be a finish.

"I think that Andre Lima is better than this guy so I'm gonna go Andre Lima here to get a win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Dos Santos is an aggressive striker with a dangerous BJJ game, training with Charles Oliveira. Lima is undefeated but has shown defensive grappling vulnerabilities and has slowed in fights. Dos Santos can mix takedowns and pressure, potentially exposing Lima's back for a submission. The underdog pick is supported by a submission prop at +1300.

Felipe dos Santos by submission at +1300
"I think taking a little bit of a shot on dos Santos to win by submission at plus 1300 is not a bad way to go about it along with his plus 155 money line."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Paul likes dos Santos at plus money, citing his striking volume and cardio advantage. He notes Lima's cardio issues and weight misses, while dos Santos has proven he can go three rounds and land significant strikes. He believes dos Santos can win by decision or late finish.

"I think it's a def decent look what's your take here yeah I actually got to santz as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

The MMA Guru picks Felipe dos Santos as an underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes dos Santos is gritty, young (23), and difficult to put away, as seen in his fight with Manel Kape. He worries about André Lima's split decision win over Mitch Raposo, who missed weight and stepped in on short notice. He believes if the fight gets scrappy, dos Santos will take over.

underdog pick
"I'm going to go with Felipe dos Santos he's the underdog I'm a little bit of 50/50 on this... I'm going Felipe dos Santos getting this one done"
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Felipe dos Santos 0 40 of 74 54% 52 of 97 9 of 11 81% 0 0 5:02
Victor Altamirano 0 37 of 87 42% 62 of 120 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Felipe dos Santos 0 9 of 23 39% 14 of 36 6 of 7 85% 0 0 2:14
Victor Altamirano 0 6 of 21 28% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Felipe dos Santos 0 13 of 22 59% 17 of 28 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:23
Victor Altamirano 0 14 of 35 40% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Felipe dos Santos 0 18 of 29 62% 21 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:25
Victor Altamirano 0 17 of 31 54% 23 of 40 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Felipe dos Santos 40 of 74 54% 7 of 33 23 of 31 10 of 10 29 of 62 10 of 10 1 of 2
Victor Altamirano 37 of 87 42% 24 of 66 8 of 16 5 of 5 31 of 73 5 of 11 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Felipe dos Santos 9 of 23 39% 2 of 11 4 of 9 3 of 3 7 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
Victor Altamirano 6 of 21 28% 3 of 16 2 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 18 1 of 2 1 of 1
2 Felipe dos Santos 13 of 22 59% 1 of 10 7 of 7 5 of 5 7 of 16 5 of 5 1 of 1
Victor Altamirano 14 of 35 40% 8 of 26 3 of 6 3 of 3 12 of 27 2 of 6 0 of 2
3 Felipe dos Santos 18 of 29 62% 4 of 12 12 of 15 2 of 2 15 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 1
Victor Altamirano 17 of 31 54% 13 of 24 3 of 6 1 of 1 15 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Angelo picks Felipe dos Santos as the more dangerous fighter, citing his shootboxing style and aggression. He notes that both fighters are tough and coming off tough losses, but dos Santos' danger gives him the edge. He also mentions hoping for an over 1.5 rounds line.

over 1.5 rounds if available
"Felipe is going to be the pick I think he's the more dangerous fighter and because of that I am going to pick Felipe dos Santos to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Big Brady picks Felipe dos Santos to win by decision, but notes the line is too high at -275. He acknowledges dos Santos looked good in his debut against Manel Kape but has red flags in his film, including poor takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks Altamirano can wrestle a bit but doesn't have much control, so the fight will play out on the feet where dos Santos has volume and variety. He also mentions that dos Santos is a Shooto Box guy arriving late to Mexico City, which is a concern.

Fight goes to decision
"give me felipia santz I do think this fight plays out closer than this line does indicate but know I think the volume the damage should be enough to get Felipe do Santos a decision win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Cody picks dos Santos by submission at +600, having bet that prop. He notes dos Santos has a bunch of submission wins on the regional scene and Altamirano's takedown defense is suspect. He thinks dos Santos can exploit that and find a submission. He also mentions Altamirano has never been knocked out but has been submitted.

Felipe dos Santos by submission (+600)
"I took some plus 600 do Santos by sub here he subbed a bunch of guys on the regional scene"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

The host sees both fighters as similar but gives the edge to dos Santos due to his more aggressive approach. He expects dos Santos to utilize either a grapple-heavy or volume-heavy striking game with kicks and punches from distance to grind out a decision win.

"I think dos Santos is the guy that utilizes a way more aggressive approach which will ultimately get his hand raised in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Paul picks dos Santos on the moneyline, though he thinks the price is a bit much. He notes dos Santos looked great against Manel Kape on short notice and has a full camp now. Altamirano is hittable and not durable. He expects dos Santos to win, possibly by knockout, though he hasn't bet it yet.

"I think he wins I think he should win but I wouldn't completely write ultimar off as having no chance"
LOSS vs Manel Kape
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manel Kape 1 112 of 182 61% 116 of 186 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
Felipe dos Santos 0 99 of 304 32% 101 of 310 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manel Kape 1 36 of 55 65% 38 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Felipe dos Santos 0 32 of 96 33% 32 of 96 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Manel Kape 0 37 of 61 60% 37 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Felipe dos Santos 0 35 of 102 34% 35 of 103 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Manel Kape 0 39 of 66 59% 41 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
Felipe dos Santos 0 32 of 106 30% 34 of 111 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manel Kape 112 of 182 61% 77 of 137 24 of 30 11 of 15 92 of 149 6 of 9 14 of 24
Felipe dos Santos 99 of 304 32% 53 of 215 28 of 60 18 of 29 94 of 292 4 of 8 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manel Kape 36 of 55 65% 18 of 35 13 of 15 5 of 5 28 of 43 2 of 2 6 of 10
Felipe dos Santos 32 of 96 33% 13 of 65 13 of 20 6 of 11 31 of 92 1 of 4 0 of 0
2 Manel Kape 37 of 61 60% 26 of 46 7 of 8 4 of 7 32 of 53 3 of 6 2 of 2
Felipe dos Santos 35 of 102 34% 19 of 69 9 of 22 7 of 11 34 of 100 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Manel Kape 39 of 66 59% 33 of 56 4 of 7 2 of 3 32 of 53 1 of 1 6 of 12
Felipe dos Santos 32 of 106 30% 21 of 81 6 of 18 5 of 7 29 of 100 2 of 2 1 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Felipe dos Santos vs. Manel Kape
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-410), dos Santos (+320)

Round 1
The UFC lost a terrific flyweight matchup of Kape (18-6, 3-2 UFC) vs. Kai Kara-France due to the latter’s concussion issue, and it tried to make the most of a bad situation by shuttling in a fighter who was going to make his mark on the Contender Series a few weeks ago. Instead of an audition, dos Santos (7-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC) is thrust right into a pay-per-view main card, with the lights blindingly shining. A win for the Brazilian would be one for the ages as he would immediately jump into the rankings, but the hard-charging Kape will not go easy on him. Referee Greg Kleynjans takes charge of the cage for this “featured fight of the night,” and Kape is happy to still be fighting tonight so he offers a glove touch that is accepted. The two fighters clash together with immediate kicks, and Kape throws back with higher volume. The Brazilian wings a left hand over the top, and Kape gets stung but fires back with a vengeance. Kape connects with a low kick, and he gets knocked back with a jab. “Starboy” launches a rocket of a right hand that separates dos Santos from his balance, and Kape jumps on top of him and starts dropping strikes down until dos Santos throws his legs up for a desperation submission. Kape backs off to let him up, and he drives his fists into dos Santos’ dome a few more times to rock the newcomer once again. Dos Santos swings wild, and Kape is more composed and snipes him with a left hand. Kape paws out his jab and clips dos Santos on the way in with a short left, and when he kicks, dos Santos catches it. Kape tumbles to the mat, and as they scramble, Kape moves on top of him and busts him in the chops with several heavy punches. Kape gets pushed off and the two get back to striking, and dos Santos surprises the big favorite with a right hand and a knee up the middle. Kape is surprised but ready to keep attacking, and he walks into a front kick. Dos Santos is met with a leg kick, and he powers forward throwing hard but missing by a small margin. The Brazilian follows a jab with a head kick, and the two clinch up and start trading knees. Kape breaks with a big left hand, and dos Santos rolls with it and walks forward to swing with a haymaker. Kape times a spinning back elbow right on the dome, and the younger dos Santos eats it like a sandwich and keeps powering forward. Kape has a foot grabbed when kicking, and dos Santos tries to throw him down but Kape grabs the fence to stay upright. Kape muscles his man down to the mat, only to back off and keep trading. The two men get off power punches, and Kape scores a body kick and an elbow. Kape walks him down and smashes him in the face with a right hand, and dos Santos gives him one right back. A furious trading of fists ends the exciting round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape

Round 2
The flyweights do not race out of their corners this round, and instead dos Santos slowly wades forward reaching out with kicks. Kape slides out of the way of all of them, including a head kick that grazes his hair, and he returns fire with a low kick. When dos Santos commits to one in response, Kape drills him with a left hook. Dos Santos spams front kicks until charging forward with a right hook, and Kape takes the punches and counters, only to have his head snapped back with a right. Dos Santos kicks high as it bounces off the guard, and he spins with something but does not let it go. Instead, he settles down to fire off a right hand, and Kape trips him to the mat with a stern leg kick. Dos Santos climbs back up and connects with two low kicks, and he rushes forward and gets popped by a shovel uppercut of a right hand. Kape puts everything behind a right hand, and dos Santos slips it and counters, and Kape keeps his head movement active as well to make for an exciting near-miss exchange. Kape sits down on a right hand as dos Santos crashes the pocket, and the newcomer’s chin is impressive. Dos Santos gets off a jumping front kick, and both men smack one another in the face with right hooks. The two trade jabs, and Kape goes to the body and slips the long left that aims past his head. Kape counters a jab with three punches, and he staggers dos Santos with a left hook. The Brazilian wears it well once more, and he chains two punches together on the inside to drive dos Santos back. Kape digs his shin into dos Santos’ thigh, and he cracks dos Santos with a few punches. From up close, dos Santos spins with a kick, and it brushes into the cup but it is not called. Kape motions to his groin, and when it goes ignored, Kape surges into action and starts ripping into dos Santos with a flurry of ferocious fists. Dos Santos survives the assault and races forward, and Kape times an elbow right on the way in. Kape pierces the guard with a right hand, and he puts his hands behind his back. Dos Santos motions to him to hit him, and the two showboat and taunt at one another until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape

Round 3
Kape allows dos Santos to come at him so he can lean back and bat dos Santos in the jaw with a clubbing right hand. Dos Santos meanders forward, letting Kape kick him so he can try to front kick his way in. Kape does not allow him to close the distance, and instead tags the unbeaten fighter with a right hand. Dos Santos, not to be outdone, runs at him and reaches Kape with two punches. When Kape knocks him back, dos Santos replies, but Kape works the body as well. Dos Santos kicks the chest and swings hard, and he clips Kape and gets popped in return. The Brazilian lands a kick and gets tripped up, and when he gets back up, he connects with several punches that rock and cut Kape on the corner of his left eye. Despite the damage, Kape is excited when he gets blasted, and he chambers and fires a right hand that stuns dos Santos and knocks him down to a knee. Dos Santos races forward with a jump knee, and he pressures forward giving Kape everything he can handle with high volume and decent power. Kape moves enough to take the sting out of the shots, and puts himself in position for an effective counter. Kape times a huge right hand that snaps dos Santos’ chin to the side, but dos Santos is not shaken and he continues moving forward. Kape lets go with a flurry of hands, and dos Santos blinks it out and has entered “Terminator” mode. Despite taking shots, dos Santos will not back down, and even throws a spinning kick. Kape is composed and calm enough to time his counters, and he lets dos Santos charge at him and busts him in the chops. As dos Santos gets a bit too wild, Kape times a takedown and takes dos Santos off his feet. When on top, Kape rains down a final barrage of punches to conclude the fantastic scrap. Both men climb on top of the cage to motion to the crowd, and despite the all-out battle that Kape delivered, the crowd boos him heartily. What a fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)

The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Felipe dos Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Angelo picks Manel Kape, saying it should be Kape all day. He notes that Kape can control range and pace with more technical striking. Felipe is dangerous but hittable and reckless. Kape should be safe to parlay. Angelo sees a clear path for Felipe but doesn't think he can walk through Kape's shots.

Safe to parlay
"This should be Manel cop all day cops should be able to control the range the pace and have the far more technical striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Big Brady confidently picks Manel Kape, citing his high-level competition and recent finishes. He notes dos Santos is a big step down and can be taken down. He thinks Kape will knock him out in the first round.

"I see monel cop knocking out Felipe dos Santos in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Cody picks Kape confidently, citing his explosive power, superior striking, and experience against top competition. He notes that dos Santos is a young, green replacement on short notice with limited tape, and that Kape should win either by early finish or smart game plan. Cody acknowledges flyweight volatility but believes Kape is the clear pick.

"this is cops fight to lose man no I think he's got a milk gun pretty much everywhere"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Daniel Levi is very confident in Manel Kape, having placed a bet on him at minus 340. He believes Kape should be a much heavier favorite, lining him at 83-88% to win. Levi notes that dos Santos stands straight up and walks forward, leaving openings to the body and head. He predicts a body shot knockout. He respects dos Santos's potential but thinks Kape is on the road to a title shot.

Bet placed at minus 340. Levi says he lined Kape at 83-88% and should be minus 500 to minus 750. Predicts body shot KO.
"This is my first bet of the night I took Manel cap actually at minus 340 a few days ago and here's why."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Lucrative James believes Manel Kape is the better striker and will likely knock out Felipe dos Santos in round one. He notes that dos Santos fights like a lunatic, walking forward with pressure, but that style won't work against Kape's level. James acknowledges Kape can be low volume and has shown quit under pressure, but he thinks dos Santos's aggression will force Kape to crack him. He also mentions Kape's takedown and submission potential as additional paths.

"I think monarchy is going to roll here guys"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Kape has tremendous experience and is difficult to deal with in the striking realm. He crashes the pocket and lands big shots. Dos Santos is a UFC newcomer who was scheduled for the contender series; this is a massive step up. Kape should be motivated and finish emphatically, possibly earning a highlight reel finish.

"I fully expect cop to eventually land that big shot and get the win in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Paul picks Kape, noting that dos Santos is too green and that Kape's takedown defense and striking should be enough. He mentions that Kape may even be able to wrestle to secure rounds. Paul's only concern is that Kape might not throw enough, making the fight close, but he believes Kape covers the price.

"cop minus 370 no I don't like it but pretty pretty clear pick for me cop"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Manel Kape

The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape over Felipe dos Santos, calling him 'the based one.' He notes that Kape has improved since his debut loss to Pantoja, with impressive finishes over Zhalgas Zhumagulov and David Dvorak. Dos Santos is 7-0 but has a split decision over a 5-2 regional opponent, which is not enough to pick him over Kape. He predicts Kape will have some trouble in round one but find a finish in round two or three.

finish in round 2 or 3
"I'm gonna go with manil cap"
Victor Altamirano - Fight History
LOSS vs Daniel Bárez
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Bárez 1 67 of 130 51% 78 of 142 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:09
Victor Altamirano 0 71 of 177 40% 76 of 184 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Bárez 1 22 of 34 64% 33 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:09
Victor Altamirano 0 15 of 43 34% 20 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Bárez 0 24 of 50 48% 24 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Victor Altamirano 0 21 of 55 38% 21 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Bárez 0 21 of 46 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Victor Altamirano 0 35 of 79 44% 35 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Bárez 67 of 130 51% 34 of 90 18 of 22 15 of 18 61 of 122 0 of 0 6 of 8
Victor Altamirano 71 of 177 40% 28 of 105 28 of 54 15 of 18 71 of 177 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Bárez 22 of 34 64% 12 of 22 5 of 6 5 of 6 16 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 8
Victor Altamirano 15 of 43 34% 3 of 23 6 of 13 6 of 7 15 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Daniel Bárez 24 of 50 48% 11 of 33 6 of 8 7 of 9 24 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Victor Altamirano 21 of 55 38% 5 of 27 9 of 20 7 of 8 21 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Daniel Bárez 21 of 46 45% 11 of 35 7 of 8 3 of 3 21 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Victor Altamirano 35 of 79 44% 20 of 55 13 of 21 2 of 3 35 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Victor Altamirano vs. Daniel Barez

Round 1
Backs are against the wall in this flyweight affair, as 35-year-old Spaniard Barez (16-6, 0-1 UFC) hopes to right the ship against the struggling Altamirano (12-4, 2-3 UFC). A pink slip could be awarded to the losing fighter, depending on how things play out. The referee of this fast-paced contest will be Rich Mitchell, who clocks the fighters in and is ready for what happens next. The two 125ers share a glove touch to commence, as Altamirano almost sprints past him to get set up. Altamirano leads the dance with a body kick, and Barez trips the front leg with a short low kick. Barez misses on a second kick, and he reaches the belly with a right straight. Altamirano swings his way in with a big left hook that does not connect, and Barez goes to the body again with a right hand. Barez chambers and fires a massive right hand, sending “El Magnifico” hurtling to the canvas. Barez pounces, letting loose ground-and-pound as Altamirano gathers his bearings and tries to close down the guard. Barez calms himself rather than spending his gas tank pursuing a finish that might not be around the corner, and he stands back to let his adversary up. Altamirano follows him up and uses his front leg to go after a side kick, a lead-leg high kick and a wheel kick. The Spaniard dodges all three and corrals Altamirano towards the fence, reaching the body and avoiding a kick at the same time. Barez’ strategy of that specific body shot must have been studied, because he lands it again and does not get hit with a counter. Altamirano uses a body kick to keep distance, only for Barez to crowd him with a right hand. Altamirano sneaks a head kick up, and Barez dodges it and ignores the second, even signaling to the Texan that it was no big deal. Altamirano kicks the ribs as he circles away, and his calf gets kicked in response. As the two battle it out, the commentary booth battles on the correct Spanish pronunciation of Barez’ name. Altamirano lines up several powerful body kicks, giving the older fighter pause and discouraging him from coming in. Barez tries to crash the pocket, and Altamirano parries effectively to get away. A second blitz from Barez is more successful, ending the round with a clean combination.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Barez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barez

Round 2
The second round begins where the two left off, with Altamirano whipping kicks at his opponent while Barez tries to find a way in. Altamirano uses a side kick to aim at the head and body, preventing Barez from pursuing him constantly and instead forcing him to work in spurts. Barez manages to get inside, landing a few shots and slipping away. Altamirano charges forward and misses with every punch, and Barez is warned for outstretched fingers as he holds them towards his opponent. Altamirano dodges a haymaker to work the body, going to the lead leg and aiming a high kick in a rapidly transitioning combo. Altamirano’s activity is beginning to frustrate Barez, chipping and chopping with kicks at a safe berth. The more kicks he aims to the midsection and land on the right arm, the slower Barez’ right hands come back at him. Altamirano slips big, telegraphed blows while using that body kick to pepper the Spaniard again and again. Barez maintains a steady pace forward, but Altamirano is able to counter him and work away. Barez reaches him with two punches, dropping Altamirano to a knee, but it might be because of a trip and not a clean knockdown. When Altamirano gathers himself, Barez bears down on him and drills him in the head with a right hand, sending “El Magnifico” back down to the mat. Altamirano appears to be fine after the flash knockdown, with Barez chasing him and swinging until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Altamirano
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Altamirano

Round 3
Gloves are touch to start the round, and the two are intense as can be. Altamirano does not slow down launching his rear-leg body kick, and Barez is giving Altamirano everything he can handle. Barez swings hard, and Altamirano’s primary weapon lands cleanly or is blocked cleanly—and either is a win for the Texan. Altamirano dips a left to the body and fires a right to the head, stunning the Spaniard for a moment. Altamirano capitalizes on the opening with an inside low kick, and he ducks a Barez charge to blast him in the face with a spinning back fist. Barez’ aggression works against him, and Altamirano pours it on and spams kicks to every target. Barez’ busted nose starts leaking, and his composure changes as his volume diminishes. Altamirano’s does not, keeping Barez honest with a constant stream of kicks to the head and midsection. Altamirano dances away from a looping right hand, resetting and firing a kick to the noggin. Altamirano jams a front kick to the body, and Barez walks him down and jabs him to the body. Barez swipes out with a left hand, and it is his right that lands. Altamirano slows his own pace until surging into action, rushing with a knee but extending a left hand that connects on the bloodied nose. Altamirano drills the ribs with a kick, and then hammers the raised guard with a kick. As Barez rushes towards him once more, Altamirano counters him with a spinning back fist, and it lands but not as cleanly as before. Altamirano comes up short with a wheel kick, and Barez gets his hands on him with a right hand. Both men land flush, and a furious brawl ensues. Barez eats a few shots and responds with a power right hand that sends Altamirano flying. Altamirano recovers instantly and swings it out until the back-and-forth scarp wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Altamirano (29-28 Barez)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Altamirano (29-28 Altamirano)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Altamirano (29-28 Altamirano)

The Official Result
Daniel Barez def. Victor Altamirano via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Angelo picks Victor Altamirano as an underdog. He notes that Victor has been competitive in all his losses and has better wrestling. Daniel Bárez is returning after a year away and can be reckless chasing submissions, which could lead to losing positions. Angelo believes Victor's slickness and overall wrestling give him the edge.

"I do like Victor here... it just seems wrong that Victor's the dog here... Victor's going to be the pick..."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Big Brady picks Victor Altamirano by third-round submission, expecting Bárez to win the first round but fade due to poor cardio. He notes Bárez has a kill-or-be-killed style and empties his tank early, while Altamirano has a great chin and BJJ black belt. He believes Altamirano will weather the storm and finish Bárez late.

Altamirano by third round submission
"I got to go alaran here he's going to have to weather an early storm but I think he can give me alaran to win this fight by third round submission and and break Daniel Perez"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Cody leans towards Altamirano due to his durability and pace. He notes that Bárez is a 35-year-old flyweight who gasses after the first round. Altamirano can take a punch and push a pace, potentially taking over in later rounds. However, he acknowledges Bárez's power and early threat.

"slight lean towards Al Morano"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Connor agrees, picking Altamirano as well. He notes that Bárez will look good early, kicking Altamirano's spleen out, but Altamirano's innate toughness and scrappiness will carry him through. Connor likes Altamirano as a self-taught fighter who overperforms.

"Yeah, I think I'll pick him with you."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Bárez

Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Bárez to win. He thinks Bárez is the better boxer in the pocket with more power, and that Altamirano's unorthodox style may not work as well. He notes Bárez's cardio and toughness, and that Altamirano has slowed in recent fights. He likes Bárez at plus money.

"I'm G to pick him to win but like I said it's not like if the price go up again a little bit I'm going to be interesting to play him for sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

JP picks Victor Altamirano because he doesn't like that Daniel Bárez lost on the Contender Series and then got signed anyway. He notes Altamirano has UFC experience and has lost to tough opponents like Tim Elliott and Felipe dos Santos. He says the lines are close and he won't put money on it.

"I'm not going to put any money on this one with how close it is and [ __ ] but uh yeah give me a altim Morano"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Bárez

Paul picks Bárez, expecting him to do more damage in the first two rounds and hold on for a decision. He notes Bárez's power and submission threat, but acknowledges Altamirano's durability. He doesn't plan to bet heavily but leans Bárez.

"I'm going to flip the script I'm going to say say Barz does the more impressive things over the course of two rounds holds on and and gets the decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

The MMA Guru picks Victor Altamirano over Daniel Bárez, noting Bárez's age (35) and his history of beating low-level competition. He believes Altamirano is more proven at UFC level and will land better shots. He also mentions Altamirano's reach advantage and Bárez's poor takedown control.

"I'm going to go with Victor Al Morano he's more proven at UFC level"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Zane thinks Altamirano will win because he is incredibly tough, has never been knocked out, and will gut through Bárez's early damage. He notes that Bárez is a kickboxer who hates MMA and tends to break when pressured. Altamirano will turn the fight into a brawl and scramble his way to victory.

"I think Ultimirano is going to win. The bar is probably going to nearly kill him. And then Ultimirano will gut through."
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Felipe dos Santos 0 40 of 74 54% 52 of 97 9 of 11 81% 0 0 5:02
Victor Altamirano 0 37 of 87 42% 62 of 120 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Felipe dos Santos 0 9 of 23 39% 14 of 36 6 of 7 85% 0 0 2:14
Victor Altamirano 0 6 of 21 28% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Felipe dos Santos 0 13 of 22 59% 17 of 28 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:23
Victor Altamirano 0 14 of 35 40% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Felipe dos Santos 0 18 of 29 62% 21 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:25
Victor Altamirano 0 17 of 31 54% 23 of 40 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Felipe dos Santos 40 of 74 54% 7 of 33 23 of 31 10 of 10 29 of 62 10 of 10 1 of 2
Victor Altamirano 37 of 87 42% 24 of 66 8 of 16 5 of 5 31 of 73 5 of 11 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Felipe dos Santos 9 of 23 39% 2 of 11 4 of 9 3 of 3 7 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
Victor Altamirano 6 of 21 28% 3 of 16 2 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 18 1 of 2 1 of 1
2 Felipe dos Santos 13 of 22 59% 1 of 10 7 of 7 5 of 5 7 of 16 5 of 5 1 of 1
Victor Altamirano 14 of 35 40% 8 of 26 3 of 6 3 of 3 12 of 27 2 of 6 0 of 2
3 Felipe dos Santos 18 of 29 62% 4 of 12 12 of 15 2 of 2 15 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 1
Victor Altamirano 17 of 31 54% 13 of 24 3 of 6 1 of 1 15 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Angelo picks Felipe dos Santos as the more dangerous fighter, citing his shootboxing style and aggression. He notes that both fighters are tough and coming off tough losses, but dos Santos' danger gives him the edge. He also mentions hoping for an over 1.5 rounds line.

over 1.5 rounds if available
"Felipe is going to be the pick I think he's the more dangerous fighter and because of that I am going to pick Felipe dos Santos to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Big Brady picks Felipe dos Santos to win by decision, but notes the line is too high at -275. He acknowledges dos Santos looked good in his debut against Manel Kape but has red flags in his film, including poor takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks Altamirano can wrestle a bit but doesn't have much control, so the fight will play out on the feet where dos Santos has volume and variety. He also mentions that dos Santos is a Shooto Box guy arriving late to Mexico City, which is a concern.

Fight goes to decision
"give me felipia santz I do think this fight plays out closer than this line does indicate but know I think the volume the damage should be enough to get Felipe do Santos a decision win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Cody picks dos Santos by submission at +600, having bet that prop. He notes dos Santos has a bunch of submission wins on the regional scene and Altamirano's takedown defense is suspect. He thinks dos Santos can exploit that and find a submission. He also mentions Altamirano has never been knocked out but has been submitted.

Felipe dos Santos by submission (+600)
"I took some plus 600 do Santos by sub here he subbed a bunch of guys on the regional scene"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

The host sees both fighters as similar but gives the edge to dos Santos due to his more aggressive approach. He expects dos Santos to utilize either a grapple-heavy or volume-heavy striking game with kicks and punches from distance to grind out a decision win.

"I think dos Santos is the guy that utilizes a way more aggressive approach which will ultimately get his hand raised in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Paul picks dos Santos on the moneyline, though he thinks the price is a bit much. He notes dos Santos looked great against Manel Kape on short notice and has a full camp now. Altamirano is hittable and not durable. He expects dos Santos to win, possibly by knockout, though he hasn't bet it yet.

"I think he wins I think he should win but I wouldn't completely write ultimar off as having no chance"
LOSS vs Tim Elliott
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tim Elliott 0 28 of 57 49% 153 of 237 6 of 7 85% 0 0 11:13
Victor Altamirano 0 19 of 39 48% 102 of 142 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tim Elliott 0 9 of 14 64% 44 of 76 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:43
Victor Altamirano 0 2 of 8 25% 47 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tim Elliott 0 5 of 9 55% 49 of 60 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:08
Victor Altamirano 0 7 of 13 53% 35 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:04
3 Tim Elliott 0 14 of 34 41% 60 of 101 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:22
Victor Altamirano 0 10 of 18 55% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tim Elliott 28 of 57 49% 22 of 48 4 of 6 2 of 3 6 of 21 4 of 4 18 of 32
Victor Altamirano 19 of 39 48% 10 of 28 6 of 8 3 of 3 15 of 31 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tim Elliott 9 of 14 64% 8 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 14
Victor Altamirano 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Tim Elliott 5 of 9 55% 4 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 2
Victor Altamirano 7 of 13 53% 4 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Tim Elliott 14 of 34 41% 10 of 28 2 of 3 2 of 3 5 of 16 2 of 2 7 of 16
Victor Altamirano 10 of 18 55% 6 of 13 3 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 14 3 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Victor Altamirano vs. Tim Elliott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Elliott (-175), Altamirano (+150)

Round 1
This flyweight affair figures to be a wild one, as former title challenger Elliott (18-12-1, 7-10 UFC) has gone through a lot lately and is looking to push past personal drama to record a win. He faces Texan Altamirano (12-2, 2-1 UFC), who has strung two wins together on his own ledger. This potentially high-paced contest will have referee Mark Smith serve as the Octagon ranger, and the amped up fighters touch gloves quickly. Altamirano leaps out from his corner with kicks, and as he does, Elliott grabs hold of one and lowers him to the floor. Altamirano defends when his seat hits the mat with powerful hammerfists, and Elliott responds with his own from on top. Altamirano is active on his back with strikes and movement, wriggling and trying to force a scramble or irritate Elliott enough with his blows to slow offense. Altamirano kicks off the chest to fight his way up, and when he is upright again, he throws a low kick. Elliott catches it and dumps his man to the floor, and he starts unloading with Donkey Kong-esque hammerfists. Altamirano threatens with an armbar off his back, and Elliott shucks it off so that he can continue striking. Altamirano sets up a high guard and considers another armbar, and Elliott once more pushes through it to land shots. Altamirano stays busy with an offensive guard, despite the strikes landing on his face repeatedly, and the veteran Elliott sees the setups and knows how to avoid any of them from getting too close. Elliott stands up to stack his man up, and he lowers himself back down while dropping punches. Elliott grinds his forehead on the opponent, slugging away all the while. Elliott is seemingly frantic with his strikes, but doing so allows him to not set up a pattern that can allow him to fall into a trap. Altamirano tries to secure another armbar, and Elliott tosses it aside to punch “El Magnifico” in the face. Elliott keeps beating on Altamirano, with no strike individually immensely powerful, but the number is adding up fast. The round ends, and Smith is quick to get between them as they still want to keep going at it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 2
The fighters toss out a glove touch just before engaging, and Elliott walks into a leg kick and a right hand. Altamirano gets up close, and Elliott manages to force a scramble that lets him dump Altamirano to his back. Elliott looks to pick up where he left off, with erratic ground strikes and no fear of Altamirano’s guard. Elliott places his knee on his foe’s to pry open the guard, and he drags his elbow back and forth on Altamirano’s face as if he were trying to saw a log with it. Elliott postures up after landing some strikes, and he allows Altamirano to stand up so that he can drive several knees to the body. Altamirano celebrates the standing position again by booting Elliott upside the head, and the former title challenger is stung and ends up falling to his back. Altamirano climbs on top of him, and he laces an elbow over the top while Elliott maintains butterfly hooks. Elliott manages to kick off, and he darts forward with a right hand. Altamirano responds with a single, and Elliott drops down for a guillotine choke that has no legs to it. Elliott lines up a left hand, a haymaker from downtown, and he succeeds in blasting Altamirano in the head with it. Elliott takes advantage of this by bowling Altamirano over, and he moves on top even as Altamirano turns to his side in an effort to escape. Elliott settles for controlling position as he looks to move into a more traditional position on top, and he shifts into the guard that closes around him. Elliott grinds his forehead in the eye socket, and Altamirano throws his legs up for something, anything. Elliott ignores this so he can mount some offense, and he proceeds to batter Altamirano until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 3
Elliott practically runs out of his corner to start kicking, and he lifts his leg up in the air to hop forward and kick down with a stomp to the knee. Elliott hops back and forth, springing to the side, and Smith tells to fight. Elliott obliges him by swinging a monstrous right hand, and Altamirano eats it like brisket and strikes back. Altamirano slips a kick up to the head, and Elliott ducks into a subsequent kick and avoids a spinning wheel kick. The kicks from the Texan open him up to grappling, and Elliott exploits this with an easy takedown. Elliott leans Altamirano up against the cage between the corner of the floor and the wall, and he sits in the guard slamming Altamirano with elbows. Altamirano keeps his guard up to not let many get through, but Elliott is busy attacking while Altamirano is stuck defending on his back. Altamirano gets dragged out from sitting up so that Elliott can keep working him over, and Altamirano tries and fails for a high guard to a submission effort. Elliott remains active on top with movement and control, but he lacks offense as Smith grows restless. Altamirano explodes to his seat and up, and Elliott meets him on the way up with a knee that was borderline. Altamirano gets up and releases a head kick, and Elliott takes it on the chin and keeps on chugging. Altamirano strings a few punches together into a leg kick, and Elliott gathers his thoughts and secures a takedown to place the Texan flat on his back. Elliott lands in the guard, and Altamirano closes it up and hangs on to prevent getting struck. Elliott grinds with a few elbows as Altamirano feebly tosses his legs up for an armbar. Elliott keeps on striking right to the bitter end, and he stands and marches away with a frown on his face at the sound of the horn, expecting he will get his hand raised very shortly.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)

The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Victor Altamirano via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Angelo picks Elliott, citing his pressure, volume, and grappling. He thinks Altamirano's takedown defense is improving but still not good enough. Elliott's ability to keep coming forward and secure takedowns will be the difference. Angelo is confident Elliott gets it done.

"I think Tim Elliott does win this fight um because if Victor off the Murano I mentioned his takedown defense is improving which it is improving but it's still not good"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Cody picks Elliott but with reservations. He highlights Elliott's wrestling as his best weapon, but worries that Elliott's stated intention to slug it out could backfire. Cody notes Altamirano's durability and speed, and that Elliott's best performances come when he has personal animosity (like against Espinoza). He thinks the under is an interesting play but is not confident in Elliott's game plan.

Under 3 takedowns for Tim Elliott on PrizePicks
"I will pick I will pick him because the man on a mission is a very dangerous thing but do I feel confident about it Paul like no how could you"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Connor picks Elliott, agreeing it's a levels fight. He notes that Altamirano's striking is poor and his grappling is functional but not dangerous. Connor believes Elliott's experience and scrambling ability will be too much, even if Elliott is emotionally affected by his divorce.

Mentions Elliott's divorce and personal issues as potential motivation.
"I would never pick Altamirana to beat Elliott. So I'm not doing it now."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Daniel leans Tim Elliott in a three-round fight, citing Elliott's experience and the fact that Altamirano is a slow starter. He notes that if it were five rounds, he'd pick Altamirano, but in three rounds Elliott's early pressure and wrestling should carry him. He acknowledges the outside drama but doesn't think it affects the fight.

"I'm gonna pick Tim Elliott as well"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Jacob picks Elliott, believing he does everything a little better than Altamirano. He notes Elliott's gas tank and ability to outwork opponents. Jacob is concerned about Altamirano's power but thinks Elliott's wrestling and pressure will prevail. He also mentions Elliott's emotional state could be a factor but still picks him.

"I think Tim Elliott does everything a little bit better than Victor and showed a great great gas tank in his last fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Elliott has personal motivation and a grappling-heavy style that will exploit Altamirano's questionable takedown defense. Altamirano has a good kicking game but struggles in the smaller cage. Elliott will land multiple takedowns, control positions, and win a decision.

"give me Tim Elliott by decision and I feel pretty good about it too"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Paul picks Tim Elliott but is not confident. He notes Elliott's wrestling advantage and Altamirano's suspect takedown defense. However, Elliott's recent comments about seeking a KO and doing wild stuff raise concerns about game plan discipline. Paul also mentions Elliott's age (38) and personal issues. He thinks the under 2.5 rounds at +215 is interesting due to narrative, but he's not fully sold on Elliott's approach.

Under 2.5 rounds at +215
"I will pick I will pick him because the man on a mission is a very dangerous thing but do I feel confident about it Paul like no how could you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott, noting he has a win over Tagir Ulanbekov and has fought the best in the flyweight division, including competitive decisions with top fighters. He criticizes Victor Altamirano for being technically not good, though dangerous with crazy shots. He expects Elliott to outpoint and frustrate Altamirano to a 29-28 decision win.

Elliott by 29-28 decision
"I'm definitely gonna side with Tim Elliott here to out Point Victor outa Murano and frustrate him to a decision win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Zane picks Elliott, viewing this as a levels matchup. He notes that Altamirano is tough but has poor defense and limited technique, while Elliott's scrambling and wrestling should dominate. Zane acknowledges the personal turmoil in Elliott's life (divorce) but believes his anger could fuel a strong performance.

Mentions Elliott's divorce and personal issues as potential motivation.
"I got to pick Elliott here. This is a levels matchup to me."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Victor Altamirano 0 62 of 118 52% 109 of 171 3 of 22 13% 0 0 5:04
Vinicius Salvador 0 47 of 130 36% 83 of 168 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Victor Altamirano 0 16 of 29 55% 39 of 54 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:28
Vinicius Salvador 0 11 of 33 33% 27 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Victor Altamirano 0 24 of 42 57% 33 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:33
Vinicius Salvador 0 24 of 56 42% 24 of 57 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:14
3 Victor Altamirano 0 22 of 47 46% 37 of 63 2 of 12 16% 0 0 2:03
Vinicius Salvador 0 12 of 41 29% 32 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Victor Altamirano 62 of 118 52% 28 of 69 14 of 27 20 of 22 54 of 106 4 of 6 4 of 6
Vinicius Salvador 47 of 130 36% 26 of 102 15 of 21 6 of 7 39 of 119 4 of 7 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Victor Altamirano 16 of 29 55% 2 of 13 5 of 6 9 of 10 13 of 25 2 of 3 1 of 1
Vinicius Salvador 11 of 33 33% 4 of 25 4 of 4 3 of 4 11 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Victor Altamirano 24 of 42 57% 10 of 22 6 of 11 8 of 9 23 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Vinicius Salvador 24 of 56 42% 15 of 43 6 of 10 3 of 3 20 of 51 2 of 3 2 of 2
3 Victor Altamirano 22 of 47 46% 16 of 34 3 of 10 3 of 3 18 of 40 1 of 2 3 of 5
Vinicius Salvador 12 of 41 29% 7 of 34 5 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 36 2 of 3 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Angelo picks Altamirano, citing his speed, power, and patience. He notes that Salvador is a high-volume striker with poor defense, and that Altamirano can work in offensive wrestling. He thinks Altamirano is more of a dog and will come forward, hit less, and use grappling to win.

"I think Victor's gonna win this fight I think Victor's gonna work in some offensive wrestling."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

Big Brady picks Vinicius Salvador by first-round knockout, citing his power and 100% finish rate. He notes Salvador's improvements since his Contender Series appearance, where he looked much better against Shannon Ross. Brady acknowledges Altamirano's grappling threat but believes Salvador's dangerous striking will prevail early. He calls it a close fight but favors Salvador's explosiveness.

Salvador by KO/TKO in round 1
"I'm gonna say Salvador does knock out Victor ultimarano early on"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

Cody leans Salvador, citing his power, speed, and striking accuracy. He notes Altamirano is hittable and has cardio but may be outgunned. He worries about Salvador's cardio and takedown defense but thinks Salvador can land a KO early. He calls it a 50/50 fight and suggests a live bet on Altamirano if Salvador doesn't finish early.

Salvador wins by KO/TKO; live bet Altamirano if fight goes past first round
"Windows plus money Venezia's I take Venezia's if you're telling me it's plus money"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Salvador. He describes Altamorano as a very awkward, hittable fighter with a weird style that won't survive against most flyweights. Salvador looks like a real flyweight with potency, while Altamorano is a not-very-athletic guy who has put in weird work. Connor thinks Salvador will maintain the pocket and find Altamorano right in front of him, unable to throw power shots back.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm with you. I don't really have a whole lot to add."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

Jacob picks Salvador, noting his power, volume, and confidence. He thinks Altamirano will brawl, which plays into Salvador's hands. He warns that Altamirano needs to get takedowns early, but if he doesn't, he is in trouble. He believes Salvador is longer and quicker and will get the job done.

"I think Venetian is a little bit longer and a little bit quicker with those shots and uh gets it done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

The host leans with Salvador, believing his technical defense is slightly better and he will land unorthodox strikes. He likes the over 1.5 rounds prop, expecting both fighters to throw a lot but not land finishing power early. He predicts Salvador wins by decision.

over 1.5 rounds
"I do end up leaning with the Salvador side here as I believe technically speaking with his defense I think he's a little bit better"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

The Guru picks Salvador, citing his youth and finishing potential. He notes that Altamirano has been dropped before and that Salvador's power could be decisive. He acknowledges it's a close fight but trusts Salvador's ability to bounce back if hurt.

"I'm gonna actually go with Venetia Salvador here just because he's so much younger... I think he's got also a massive amount of finishing potential"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

Zane picks Vinicius Salvador because he believes Altamorano's awkward, off-balance style lacks punching power and will be easily exploited by Salvador's pocket boxing. Salvador is willing to eat shots to stay in range and throw wide hooks, while Altamorano struggles to deliver hard strikes from his stance. Zane notes that Altamorano's win over Daniel Lacerda was more an indictment of Lacerda's lack of longevity than a sign of Altamorano's quality.

Odds: Altamorano opened at -115, currently -107; Salvador opened at -105, currently -116. Zane expects a scrappy fight but thinks Salvador will land the better shots.
"I got to pick Salvador."
TKO (punches and elbows) R1 3:39 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Victor Altamirano 1 22 of 45 48% 27 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Daniel Lacerda 1 58 of 83 69% 94 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Victor Altamirano 1 22 of 45 48% 27 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Daniel Lacerda 1 58 of 83 69% 94 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Victor Altamirano 22 of 45 48% 14 of 36 3 of 4 5 of 5 16 of 33 2 of 6 4 of 6
Daniel Lacerda 58 of 83 69% 48 of 71 9 of 10 1 of 2 15 of 28 2 of 2 41 of 53
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Victor Altamirano 22 of 45 48% 14 of 36 3 of 4 5 of 5 16 of 33 2 of 6 4 of 6
Daniel Lacerda 58 of 83 69% 48 of 71 9 of 10 1 of 2 15 of 28 2 of 2 41 of 53
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Lacerda

Angelo picks Daniel Lacerda (da Silva) over Victor Altamirano. He calls it a razor-thin fight that should be a pick'em. He notes that both are solid strikers with okay wrestling and good BJJ, but believes Lacerda is the better striker and more dangerous fighter. He acknowledges Altamirano's takedown defense isn't great but he sweeps well. Angelo is concerned about Lacerda's poor wrestling but thinks he can still get it done. He admits he doesn't love the pick but is going with the underdog due to Lacerda's danger.

"i'm gonna go the underdog here but if i'm gonna be honest with you i i don't love this pick right out of the gate but i do like daniel da silva to get it done because of how incredibly …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Big Brady sees this as a tricky fight. He notes that Daniel Lacerda (da Silva) is dangerous early with a 100% finish rate but fades badly if the fight extends, as seen in his loss to Jeff Molina. Victor Altamirano has terrible takedown defense but is durable and has cardio. Brady expects Lacerda to look good early but fade, with Altamirano taking over and finishing by submission in the second or third round. He is hesitant because Lacerda could win the first round if he lands early.

Altamirano by submission, round 2-3
"i'm gonna take all toronto to win i'm going to say second round submission but i do think daniel da silva is going to look very good very early"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Cody picks Altamirano, emphasizing his Mexican toughness and durability. He notes Lacerda's cardio issues and thinks Altamirano can break him down. He likes the under 12.5 minutes as it covers both fighters' finishing potential.

under 12.5 minutes (fight time)
"i got all to murano"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Daniel Levi picks Victor Altamirano to win a decision. He notes that Daniel Lacerda is hell on wheels early but fades, and in the elevation, Lacerda will gas even faster. Levi believes Altamirano's Mexican heart and long strikes will take over in the second and third rounds. He acknowledges that Lacerda could get an early finish, but if he doesn't, Altamirano wins.

Mentions that Lacerda is a 'killer be killed' type and that Altamirano gives up takedowns too easily. No specific odds or bet size.
"I think Victor altamarada wins that fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Victor Altamirano is the lock of the night play with 4 units at -168. He expects Altamirano to survive early trouble from Lacerda's takedowns and jiu-jitsu, then take over as Lacerda's cardio fades after the first few minutes. Altamirano's striking advantage and ability to create scrambles should lead to a finish in the second or third round. He also took 2 units on under 2.5 rounds at -165 as a hedge.

Lock of the night play: 4 units on Altamirano moneyline at -168. Also 2 units on under 2.5 rounds at -165. Mentions Lacerda round 1 prop as a possible hedge.
"I actually went four units on victor alto moreno to making my lock of the night play this week at minus 168."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Paul picks Altamirano, citing his durability and cardio advantage. He notes Lacerda's explosive style but poor cardio. He likes the under 12.5 minutes on Prize Picks and thinks Altamirano can weather the early storm and take over.

under 12.5 minutes (fight time) on Prize Picks
"i don't think ulta murano is a great finisher by any stretch of the imagination either but um daniel da silva hasn't really shown 15-minute cardio whatsoever we talked about the under 12 and a half minutes on um on …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Victor Altamirano

The Guru predicts Victor Altamirano wins via 29-28 unanimous decision. He describes a sloppy, chaotic fight where Lacerda gives Altamirano problems early with takedowns and punches, but Altamirano lands leg kicks and body kicks. He sees Altamirano wearing Lacerda down in the second and third rounds, beating him up badly in the third.

Wins by unanimous decision 29-28
"victor altamirano is going to win this one via 29-28 unanimous decision"
Decision (split) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Angelo picks Felipe dos Santos as the more dangerous fighter, citing his shootboxing style and aggression. He notes that both fighters are tough and coming off tough losses, but dos Santos' danger gives him the edge. He also mentions hoping for an over 1.5 rounds line.

over 1.5 rounds if available
"Felipe is going to be the pick I think he's the more dangerous fighter and because of that I am going to pick Felipe dos Santos to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Big Brady picks Felipe dos Santos to win by decision, but notes the line is too high at -275. He acknowledges dos Santos looked good in his debut against Manel Kape but has red flags in his film, including poor takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks Altamirano can wrestle a bit but doesn't have much control, so the fight will play out on the feet where dos Santos has volume and variety. He also mentions that dos Santos is a Shooto Box guy arriving late to Mexico City, which is a concern.

Fight goes to decision
"give me felipia santz I do think this fight plays out closer than this line does indicate but know I think the volume the damage should be enough to get Felipe do Santos a decision win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Cody picks dos Santos by submission at +600, having bet that prop. He notes dos Santos has a bunch of submission wins on the regional scene and Altamirano's takedown defense is suspect. He thinks dos Santos can exploit that and find a submission. He also mentions Altamirano has never been knocked out but has been submitted.

Felipe dos Santos by submission (+600)
"I took some plus 600 do Santos by sub here he subbed a bunch of guys on the regional scene"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

The host sees both fighters as similar but gives the edge to dos Santos due to his more aggressive approach. He expects dos Santos to utilize either a grapple-heavy or volume-heavy striking game with kicks and punches from distance to grind out a decision win.

"I think dos Santos is the guy that utilizes a way more aggressive approach which will ultimately get his hand raised in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Paul picks dos Santos on the moneyline, though he thinks the price is a bit much. He notes dos Santos looked great against Manel Kape on short notice and has a full camp now. Altamirano is hittable and not durable. He expects dos Santos to win, possibly by knockout, though he hasn't bet it yet.

"I think he wins I think he should win but I wouldn't completely write ultimar off as having no chance"