Brandon Royval vs Brandon Moreno

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Brandon Royval	0	17 of 26	65%	17 of 26	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Manel Kape	1	17 of 23	73%	18 of 24	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:04

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Brandon Royval	0	17 of 26	65%	17 of 26	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Manel Kape	1	17 of 23	73%	18 of 24	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:04

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Brandon Royval	17 of 26	65%	5 of 10	6 of 8	6 of 8	17 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 0
Manel Kape	17 of 23	73%	6 of 10	5 of 6	6 of 7	15 of 21	0 of 0	2 of 2

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Brandon Royval	17 of 26	65%	5 of 10	6 of 8	6 of 8	17 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 0
Manel Kape	17 of 23	73%	6 of 10	5 of 6	6 of 7	15 of 21	0 of 0	2 of 2

Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-300); Royval (+240)

Round 1
This main event is a flyweight tilt many have circled on the calendar the day it was announced. Always in a wild scrap, Royval (17-8, 7-4 UFC) has reached all but the pinnacle of his division as bounces around the top five. After some delays and scrubbed pairings, he finally gets to take on the brick-fisted Kape (21-7, 6-3 UFC). The talk is over, the prep is finished, and it’s time for some action. Referee Herb Dean ushers the two to the center of the Octagon to issue final instructions and elicit a glove touch, which is heard and answered by the athletes. It’s on with the show, this being the final UFC bout on ESPN (unless they sign back with ESPN in 2033).
Kape marches Royval down immediately lobbing a hard calf kick at him to greet him. Royval answers him back. Violent pleasantries exchanged, the two get to it for real. Royval lands a side kick to the ribs, and Kape keeps targeting the lead leg. Royval answers in kind, and swipes out with a right hand on the way back. Kape chips at the front wheel once more with his low kick, and Royval makes sure to pay him back immediately. Royval lets rip a body kick that lands with a loud slap, and he kicks with the other leg which makes a thumping sound instead. Royval punches his way into a low kick combination, and he tags Kape upstairs to interrupt a combo. Another hefty body kick from “Raw Dawg” lands flush, who then targets the calf. Kape swings himself off-balance with a big kick, gathering himself in time to dodge a kick flying at his face.
Royval tosses up a high kick, and Kape rushes him. Something appears to bother Kape, who has to suddenly back off and put his hand on the fence. Oddly enough, the same thing happens to Royval, who looks to have jammed his toes on a kick. Kape walks him down and blasts him in the face with a ferocious right hand that puts him down for the count. “Starboy” unleashes a final barrage of fists while Royval tries to sit up and recover, knocking the Factory X fighter clean out and then switching him back online again. Dean sees when Royval goes limp a second time, and he intervenes. Royval is trying to stand at the time, but he is on wobbled legs and thinks to protest but decides against it. Cooler heads bring him over to his corner so that he can sit down and talk to his team now that the fight is over, and Kape hurries over to talk to someone seated outside of the cage. Ending the ESPN era with one destructive flurry, Kape ties the UFC flyweight record for the most knockouts in divisional history, tying Joe Benavidez with five.
The triumphant Kape challenges new flyweight king Joshua Van for his belt, claiming that he will, and we can’t make this up, “take his diapers.” Sometimes these things happen in MMA. With this 12-fight show in the books, the ESPN era of the UFC is now complete. With the winter break upcoming, there will be a whopping six weeks until the next UFC card on Jan. 24, a gap with no events not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic shut the sport down for a few months in 2020. There will be a few more major fight cards in 2025, with PFL Africa next week and Rizin’s NYE spectacular coming up soon. We will be there for them, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Brandon Royval R1 3:18 via KO (Punches)

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Cody picks Royval as a plus money underdog, citing his infinite cardio, pressure, and volume. He believes Royval's improved striking and grappling will allow him to outwork Kape over five rounds, especially in deeper waters. He notes Kape's power but thinks Royval's chin can hold up and that Royval will win a close decision by outlanding him in significant strikes.

"I am going to chase that plus money on Brandon Royval. It's a five-round fight. And again, as far as I'm concerned, Brandon Royval is built for these 25-minute long fights."

Bookie Beatdown

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Manel Kape

Lucrative James picks Manel Kape confidently, arguing that Brandon Royval's aggressive, pressure-heavy style plays into Kape's hands. He notes Kape's superior boxing, timing, and power, and believes Kape will hurt Royval multiple times, though a knockout is uncertain given Royval's durability. He projects Kape as a -250 favorite.

"I'm going to pick Manel Cape in this fight. I'm going to pick Minnel Cape fairly confidently in this fight."

Lucrative MMA

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Paul agrees with Cody, also taking Royval at plus 250. He highlights the Felipe dos Santos fight as evidence that Kape can be pushed in a striking battle, and doubts Kape can maintain high volume for 25 minutes. He sees Royval's durability and output as key factors.

"It's Brandon Royval plus 250 for me as well."

Bookie Beatdown

LOSS vs Joshua Van

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Brandon Royval	0	215 of 467	46%	216 of 468	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Joshua Van	1	204 of 305	66%	209 of 311	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:09

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Brandon Royval	0	42 of 116	36%	42 of 116	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Joshua Van	0	52 of 79	65%	52 of 79	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Brandon Royval	0	87 of 174	50%	87 of 174	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Joshua Van	0	74 of 106	69%	77 of 109	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Brandon Royval	0	86 of 177	48%	87 of 178	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Joshua Van	1	78 of 120	65%	80 of 123	0 of 0	---	0:09

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Brandon Royval	215 of 467	46%	179 of 422	22 of 27	14 of 18	205 of 451	10 of 16	0 of 0
Joshua Van	204 of 305	66%	138 of 232	37 of 43	29 of 30	181 of 270	20 of 27	3 of 8

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Brandon Royval	42 of 116	36%	27 of 95	6 of 10	9 of 11	41 of 114	1 of 2	0 of 0
1	Joshua Van	52 of 79	65%	31 of 55	9 of 12	12 of 12	46 of 71	6 of 8	0 of 0
2	Brandon Royval	87 of 174	50%	77 of 163	7 of 7	3 of 4	81 of 165	6 of 9	0 of 0
2	Joshua Van	74 of 106	69%	50 of 81	18 of 19	6 of 6	65 of 95	9 of 11	0 of 0
3	Brandon Royval	86 of 177	48%	75 of 164	9 of 10	2 of 3	83 of 172	3 of 5	0 of 0
3	Joshua Van	78 of 120	65%	57 of 96	10 of 12	11 of 12	70 of 104	5 of 8	3 of 8

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-120), Royval (+100)

Round 1
In the “featured fight of the night,” flyweights roll the dice to see who may get the next crack at the champ. As it turns out, this de facto tournament will be resolved one bout later, when Alexandre Pantoja rematches Kai Kara-France for the throne. Having come up short in 2023, and already 0-2 against the champ Pantoja, Royval (17-7, 7-3 UFC) more than likely hopes there will be change in beltholder in about an hour. Looking to spoil the party of “Raw Dawg” will be the fast-rising 23-year-old Van (14-2, 7-1 UFC), who has shot up the ranks like a cannon and takes this bout on short notice. Despite that, Van is the betting favorite. Referee Jason Herzog will keep things on the up-and-up, although they kick off with a sporting fist bump.
Royval probes with his jab and sets up an early low kick. He digs a kick to the ribcage and goes back low to the calf on either side. Royval uses his reach to keep the younger man at bay, chipping away at him from a safe distance. For the first minute, Van is doing nothing more than taking potshots. Royval goes to the body again with his toes extended, and he rushes forward into the awaiting right hand from the 23-year-old. Van catches Royval twice more with his big right hand, and Royval shrugs them off and continues doing work from the outside. Royval splits the guard with jab after unanswered jab, moving and evading to not let Van get to him. Van misses on a right hand, and Royval clips him with his own short right hook. Van strikes the body with a right, and Royval reaches his target with jabs and a short check hook.
Van lands multiple blistering right hands, hitting “Raw Dawg” much harder than Royval has struck him yet. Royval goes to the body with a kick as he skirts away, and Van reaches him with a right. Van knocks Royval to his seat, although Royval stumbled on the way out. He bounces back to his feet, and Van is ready to crack him with another heavy right. Any time Royval closes the distance, Van has a right hand awaiting him. Van gets Royval’s attention twice, and Royval knees him hard in the chest. Van knocks Royval back a step with two powerful right hands on the cheek, and a third connects when Royval puts hands on him. Royval gets up close and personal, and although he delivers a single knee, Van rips the midsection with several fast fists. The strikes have marked up Royval’s nose, who does not appear concerned after getting hit hard. He potshots Van a few more times until the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Van
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 2
The fighters tap gloves before engaging, and Royval gets right back to his high-volume, low-power approach. He jams Van in the sternum with a smattering of knees before backing off, where he takes a right hand on the way out. The two swing at one another, forming a cloud of feet and fists reminiscent of an Andy Capp comic. Van drills Royval at the end of two right hands, only to eat a sharp knee on the jaw. Royval drives him back with a flurry, and his body kick allows him to get in and swing a left. Royval stings Van with a straight left, and Van comes over the top with a right. Van gets off a clubbing right in the midst of Royval’s jab-a-palooza, and he absorbs a low kick and two powerful uppercuts. Royval plants a one-two on the chin to shake up the youngster from Myanmar, and he opens up with several more punches. Van stands in the pocket and bangs with him, with Royval getting knocked back and needing to reset, his nose leaking.
Royval starts putting more behind his punches, and Van is still hurling with power. The stats are racking up fast, and Van’s right hand is a weapon that seemingly cannot miss. Van drives a knee to the chest and follows with an overhand right, and Royval rifles off a number of piston-like jabs. Van misses with his right, and Royval works him with three speedy punches. Royval’s right cheek shows damage, and he gets stood up in a combo. Royval lets jab after jab land on the nose, and he follows with long, straight left hands. Van attacks the body, and just when he is about to gain momentum, Royval is on him with a powerful salvo. They continue to unload into one another’s faces, stealing the hearts of the crowd. Royval walks straight through a hard combination, fires back and gets staggered ever-so briefly. Royval goes to the body, and they swing it out to the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Royval

Round 3
The flyweights tap gloves, and it takes nary a second for Royval to get behind his jab. He sways to avoid the worst of a right hand and fires back with a one-two. Van connects with a quick left hook, shaking Royval up with two more punches but eating a few on the way out. Van reaches out with a right hand, and he allows Royval to close in so he can smash him in the temple with his overhand right. Royval surges forward behind long arms, ignoring a few body shots to put his fists on Van’s face. Van cracks him with a huge right hand, and Royval just smiles. Royval drops a body kick on his foe, and they take a moment to compose themselves before going for broke again. Van lands a one-two, and Royval pays him right back with a knee up the middle and a few fiery fists back. Van gets in tight for a second to land body shots, and Royval disengages.
Royval drives four punches him, and Van drills him with a right hand that surprises Royval. The Factory x fighter takes a hard leg kick and goes to the body with his shin. The two brawl it out, and Royval may be bloody in the nose but he is not slowing down. Van digs a kick to the body, and Royval reaches him with a left. Van pays him back with a combo, and Royval gets in his face with a flurry. Royval goes to the body with a kick, and Van counters him up top. Royval strings together a three-punch combo, and he darts away before Van reaches him. Van stumbles his opponent with his power right, and he knees Royval in the nose. Royval checks a kick and crashes the pocket with an uppercut and several more punches. Van kicks Royval’s leg out, and he swings a right hand over the top. He catches Royval on the way in with a left, and Royval is not about to let him off the hook. With 15 seconds to go, the two batter and smash one another. Van knocks “Raw Dawg” to the mat in an insane exchange, following the former title challenger down to the mat and hammering him until time expires. What an incredible fight! Royval was hurt but made it to the end, and a new challenger has emerged. The flyweights delivered easily one of the best fights of the year, giving it everything they had and more. If only this one had two more rounds...in victory, Van proudly declares that whomever wins the title in the next match will have to go through him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)

The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Brandon Royval via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Angelo picks Brandon Royval because he believes Royval is still in his prime and will be the best fighter Joshua Van has ever faced. He notes that Van's UFC record is loaded with wrestlers and lower-level guys, and the last time Van fought a predominant striker, he was finished in the third round. He placed a bet on Royval weeks ago and is confident in the pick.

Angelo says he placed a bet on Royval a few weeks ago.

"I think Royval wins here. I've got a bet on Royval, and I placed that bet a few weeks ago."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Big Brady believes Royval is underrated, citing his wins over top competition like Taira, Moreno, and Nicolau. He notes Van has durability concerns, having been knocked out by Charles Johnson and hurt by Edgar Chairez. Brady thinks Royval's experience, cardio, and grappling advantage will be key, and predicts Royval will hurt Van, who will then shoot for a takedown and get submitted. He picks Royval by second-round submission.

Royval wins by second round submission

"I'll go Brandon Roy Val. Brandon Royal by second round submission."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Connor initially wanted to pick Van but was convinced by Phil that Royval's style is a bad matchup for Van. He notes that Royval has become a long-range volume fighter who can frustrate opponents, and Van has struggled against tall, rangy fighters. He also mentions Royval's durability and pace as factors. However, he is not fully confident because Royval's style is not championship-level and he gives away a lot.

"I think I'm going to go with Rival and just say that the quick turnaround is going to be too much for van and that the, that Rival can put out pace round after round and at a range that …"

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Joshua Van

The host acknowledges Royval's unorthodox striking may cause early trouble, but expects Van to land big shots in the second and third rounds, possibly getting a late TKO, but ultimately winning on the scorecards in the biggest win of his career.

win on scorecards, possible late TKO

"I expect Van to eventually touch up Brandon Roy Val, land those big shots, especially in the second and third round, maybe find a TKO late, but I think the 23-year-old ends up going on to win this fight on …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Joshua Van

The host picks Joshua Van, praising his boxing, head movement, and body work. He notes that Royval's volume often lacks sting and that Van's activity and recent form are advantages. He predicts Van will win a decision, taking the first two rounds, while Royval may take the third.

decision

"I'm going to go with Joshua Van. I think his boxing would be great. I think he can find the body very well here."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Zane is also leaning towards Royval after being convinced by Phil. He notes that Royval's leaf-blower style at range could be problematic for Van, who has struggled against fighters who keep him at distance. He also mentions that Royval is durable and has a high pace. However, he is not confident because Royval's style is not impressive and Van could potentially overwhelm him if he gets inside.

"I kind of have just sold you on this, the way Phil sold me, because I was also thinking like, yeah, I'm like you, I'm not super impressed by Rival's game, but on reflection, he may in fact, be one …"

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Tatsuro Taira

Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Brandon Royval	0	124 of 232	53%	172 of 287	3 of 3	100%	3	2	2:23
Tatsuro Taira	0	42 of 99	42%	80 of 143	6 of 15	40%	1	0	12:13

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Brandon Royval	17 of 55	30%	17 of 55	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
1	Tatsuro Taira	10 of 22	45%	11 of 24	1 of 3	33%	0	0	0:44
2	Brandon Royval	3 of 14	21%	11 of 22	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
2	Tatsuro Taira	5 of 7	71%	29 of 34	2 of 2	100%	0	0	4:10
3	Brandon Royval	56 of 78	71%	81 of 105	2 of 2	100%	1	0	0:57
3	Tatsuro Taira	5 of 21	23%	7 of 23	0 of 4	0%	1	0	1:45
4	Brandon Royval	5 of 11	45%	6 of 12	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
4	Tatsuro Taira	8 of 13	61%	18 of 25	1 of 3	33%	0	0	4:29
5	Brandon Royval	43 of 74	58%	57 of 93	1 of 1	100%	2	2	1:26
5	Tatsuro Taira	14 of 36	38%	15 of 37	2 of 3	66%	0	0	1:05

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Brandon Royval	124 of 232	53%	114 of 216	10 of 16	0 of 0	97 of 203	11 of 12	16 of 17
Tatsuro Taira	42 of 99	42%	34 of 91	5 of 5	3 of 3	38 of 93	0 of 1	4 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Brandon Royval	17 of 55	30%	12 of 46	5 of 9	0 of 0	16 of 54	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Tatsuro Taira	10 of 22	45%	6 of 18	2 of 2	2 of 2	10 of 22	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Brandon Royval	3 of 14	21%	1 of 11	2 of 3	0 of 0	3 of 14	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Tatsuro Taira	5 of 7	71%	4 of 6	1 of 1	0 of 0	5 of 6	0 of 0	0 of 1
3	Brandon Royval	56 of 78	71%	54 of 76	2 of 2	0 of 0	32 of 52	9 of 10	15 of 16
3	Tatsuro Taira	5 of 21	23%	5 of 21	0 of 0	0 of 0	5 of 20	0 of 1	0 of 0
4	Brandon Royval	5 of 11	45%	4 of 10	1 of 1	0 of 0	5 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Tatsuro Taira	8 of 13	61%	7 of 12	0 of 0	1 of 1	4 of 9	0 of 0	4 of 4
5	Brandon Royval	43 of 74	58%	43 of 73	0 of 1	0 of 0	41 of 72	1 of 1	1 of 1
5	Tatsuro Taira	14 of 36	38%	12 of 34	2 of 2	0 of 0	14 of 36	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-225), Royval (+185)

Round 1
The UFC has chosen well with this all-action flyweight scrap capping off the fight card. Fresh off a revenge win over Brandon Moreno, Royval (16-7, 6-3 UFC) is energized and fully capable of playing spoiler. Taira (16-0, 6-0 UFC) has yet to taste defeat, and his performances continue to dazzle as he works his way up the 125-pound ladder. The two are brought to the middle of the cage by referee Jason Herzog for final instructions, and they gladly bump fists before madness ensues. It’s on with the show. Royval hops in and out searching for an early jab, and he pitches out a high kick to further gauge his range. Royval has another head kick miss, and Taira tests his mettle with a light low kick. Royval connects with a body kick, and Taira changes levels on him. Royval defends with a guillotine choke, and he breaks free of the attempt with his back bouncing off the wall. Royval walks through a right hand to get off his own, and his subsequent head kick efforts continue missing. A straight left from Royval reddens the Japanese fighter’s nose, and he catches Taira coming in with another left hand. Royval kicks the body and spins around, with Taira getting off a right hand. Royval scores another body kick that does not get caught, and he snaps out a one-two to get Taira’s attention. Royval clubs his foe with a left hand, and he gets off another in short order before dancing away to a safe distance. Royval measures and clubs Taira once more with a left, having found its range with it and a body kick. Taira bends over and gets his hair buzzed with a back fist. Two more body kicks from Royval get through, and his jab splits the guard. Taira walks into a pair of punches, and he makes Royval stumble with a short combo and grabs hold of Royval from behind to drag him to the floor. Royval attacks a kneebar as soon as he hits a mat, and he transitions into a heel hook and tugs on it from the other side for an inverted variety. Taira turns but cannot get out of the leg danger, as Royval commits to it by rolling over. Taira slithers away from the submission, and Royval breaks free and darts after him with long punches before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval

Round 2
Royval is right in the center of the cage ready to pick up where he left off, and his long punches lead to a step-in knee. Taira threatens with a double, scooping Royval up and pushing off the fence to drag Royval down and take his back. Taira flattens Royval out for a moment, but Royval is a scrambler and he keeps moving any direction he can. Taira secures the body triangle to stifle the former title challenger’s escape attempts, and he slides over to take mount before stretching Royval out further. Royval scoots his way to put the wall behind him, with Taira sitting up and the leg grip still around his waist. Royval hand-fights to defend from a submission, and Taira looks to isolate a choke. Royval rolls over, turning twice until he grabs hold of Taira’s knee to spin him around. Taira further maintains control from behind, with Royval’s efforts in vain. Royval is warned for grabbing the inside of the glove, and Taira sells out for a rear-naked choke. Taira turns to the other side to further sneak it in, and Royval is able to stop these attempts for the time being. Royval sits back down with Taira holding an unorthodox grip around his shoulder, and he uses it to put Royval on his back and reassume mount. Royval spins around to escape the first bad position, and Taira deftly slides through to get his back and shut Royval down by getting in half guard. Royval attacks a leglock, forcing Taira to stand up and pull his leg away. Royval works back to his feet in the waning seconds, and one body kick is all he gets off before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira

Round 3
Fists are bumped to get going, and a more tentative Royval gets countered over the top with a left hand. Taira reaches him with another left hook over the top, and Royval slugs him in the chops with a right hand. A straight left from Royval finds its home on the jaw, and he lands another few punches and a knee when Taira shoots for a takedown. Royval defends the double with several elbows to the side of the head, and he stands Taira up with a sharp knee. Royval breaks out of the attempt and goes wild with a flurry of strikes, shaking Taira up briefly. Taira’s recoverability is excellent, as he does not back up and instead stays just out of range. Royval bears down on him with a long left and an uppercut, and his uppercut clips Taira again when Taira tries to strike back. Royval gets energized by landing flush, hurting Taira with a flurry of fists. Taira shoots desperately for a takedown when he gets hurt with a salvo from “Raw Dawg.” Taira’s takedown is used against him, as Royval throws him to the mat and works on him with hammerfists. Royval thwarts another attempt, and Taira is fading fast as the woodchipper in Royval is on him chewing him up with punches and knees. Taira goes after another takedown, and it is not effective as he ducks face-first into a clean knee. Taira drops to the mat, and Royval follows him and beats on him with hammerfists on either side of the head. Taira tries to move, and Royval circles around to take Taira’s back and get hooks in. Royval searches for an armbar, rolling to his bell to lock it down, and Taira miraculously fights his way out of the sub and turns Royval around to get his back. Taira fastens the body triangle and starts hunting for his own submission. A rear-naked choke from the Japanese youngster sneaks around the jaw of his foe, and Royval decides to punch instead of fighting the hands. Royval grits it out and survives to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval

Round 4
Royval is fired up after his corner very loudly and dramatically informs him that he needs to crush this kid. Taira is not about to go down lightly, and the two flyweights meet in the center of the cage and trade hands violently. When Taira gets stung, he shoots in for a takedown. Royval balances thanks in part to a fence grab, although Taira still wrests him to the mat. Taira gets his hooks in and locks down the body triangle, with Royval pulling off the fence to try to spin himself about. Taira hunts for a choke, and Royval fights the body lock and turns to his knees. Taira’s body lock remains firmly around the midsection even sitting upright, and Royval rolls but is still snared in the web. Taira softens him up from behind with punches as Royval keeps turning, and he lands an elbow as he moves from position to position. When absorbing one particularly fierce elbow, Royval turns to his stomach, and he uses two-on-one control to wriggle himself out. Taira’s savvy back control further nullifies “Raw Dawg,” and he lets Royval roll to his back to get the body triangle again. Royval fights it off on one side, but Taira fastens it on the other. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Royval sits up and is near to escape, but time expires before he can. It could be all tied up now.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira

Round 5
With five minutes left in the fight very likely even on the scorecards, Royval strikes first in the final round. Connecting with four or five early punches, Royval is forced to sprawl to stop a level change. Taira walks into a few punches after Royval stands up, and he reaches with a right but gets clubbed with an uppercut. Royval reaches out with a left hand, and he snipes Taira coming in with a few punches. Royval eats a pair of lefts to get driven back, and he slips in an uppercut. Taira swings a right hand into a takedown, and he puts Royval on his seat with three and a half minutes left in the round. Taira moves to north-south position with Royval pushing his heels off the fence to flip around. Taira nearly gets the back, but Royval reverses the position and pursues his own takedown to place Taira on his seat. Royval holds on from behind as Taira stands, and he elevates and slams the Japanese fighter down. Royval jumps on the back as Taira gets to his feet again, and slides off in a hurry. Taira breaks the grip and separates, and Royval walks him down and bloodies his foe’s nose. Taira loads up on power strikes, and Royval’s straight left remains a money punch. Royval seems to land cleanly whenever he wishes, and Taira dives after a desperate single but Royval stops it and knees his foe in the chest. Royval breaks free again and rails Taira with a step-in knee, and Taira knocks him back with a big right hand. Royval gets back in his face with a series of punches, and he gets pushed over when spinning back. Taira shoots for a double, and Royval jumps guard with a guillotine choke that he uses to roll into full mount. Royval sits up and lets Taira turn over to take his back, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke. Royval gets the body triangle at the same time, and he cranks on the neck. The neck crank does not get a tap, and tough as nails Taira survives to turn himself over. The final horn blares, and this back-and-forth battle comes to a close in an easy “Fight of the Night” candidate and one possibly worthy of “Fight of the Year” consideration. No matter who picks up the win, these two put on a show and stamp their places in the elite echelon of the 125-pound division.
Springing the upset, Royval showers his defeated opponent with compliments, while saying that he would be happy to do anything to further Taira’s career—a fighter that he confidently proclaims will be a champion one day. Royval states he alone deserves the next title shot at flyweight, due to wins over top-five talents Brandon Moreno, Kai Kara-France and now Taira. He asks to be backup for the Alexandre Pantoja-Kai Asakura championship bout, or offers to fight in hostile territory to beat either man in their home country after UFC 310. If he gets the next crack at gold, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)

The Official Result
Brandon Royval def. Tatsuro Taira via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Angelo picks Brandon Royval, calling himself a Tatsuro Taira hater. He notes that Taira is undefeated but hasn't beaten top competition, and that Royval's pressure and experience will be too much. He mentions Royval's win over Brandon Moreno and his ability to land strikes even when taken down. Angelo bet half a unit on Royval at +170 and is also considering a plus 5.5 bet.

Bet half a unit at +170; considering plus 5.5 bet

"I think Brandon Royal wins this fight I bet on him plus 170 those odds were just too good to pass up."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Tatsuro Taira

Big Brady picks Tatsuro Taira to win by decision. He notes that if it were a three-round fight, he'd be more confident, but the five rounds give him pause due to Royval's elite cardio and durability. However, Royval has terrible takedown defense (40%), and Taira's grappling control is elite. He compares it to Royval's fight with Pantoja, where Pantoja controlled him on the ground. Brady believes Taira can get takedowns at will and control rounds, though rounds 4-5 could get interesting. He expects Taira to win at least three rounds.

Taira by decision

"I'll go Tyra to win this fight and I'll take him to win this fight by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2025 (fight day)

Tatsuro Taira

Cody believes Taira is a believer after his performance against Royval, showing improved striking, timing, physicality, and elite grappling. He notes Taira's ability to take down Royval six times and control him, despite Royval's scrambling and cardio. Cody sees Taira as more polished and refined than Park, with five-round experience and superior competition level. He expects Taira to roll through Park.

"I'm starting to become a Tyro believer and you know me, I've tried to fade this guy a few times."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Tatsuro Taira

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Royval's defensive wrestling is nonexistent and that Taira's grappling is a huge advantage. He notes that Royval's recent striking approach is static and ineffective, and that Taira should be able to take him down and control the fight. Connor is confident Taira wins unless he fights poorly.

Same odds commentary as Zane.

"I think of royville's fight with kykara france... If you're facing tatsuru taira you're not going to jump the ghillie and submit tatsuru taira."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Daniel acknowledges Taira's immense talent and undefeated record but questions if he's ready for a top-five test at age 24. He notes Royval's proven durability, pace, and experience against elite competition like Moreno and Pantoja. Daniel is tempted by the plus-190 odds on Royval and believes Taira may need to pay his dues first. He emphasizes that Royval gets better as fights progress and that Taira hasn't faced anyone with Royval's relentless pressure.

"I'm just not convinced he's that guy right now... I'm more tempted to take a small shot on Brandon Royval and see if he can set back the ultra talented Tatsuro Taira."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Tatsuro Taira

The host looked for a reason to take Royval as a big underdog but couldn't due to Taira's control and grappling. Royval is more disciplined but will struggle when Taira crashes the pocket and wraps him up. The host is not super high on Taira's chalk and prefers the over 3.5 rounds, but expects Taira to control the majority of the fight via grappling and win on the scorecards.

over 3.5 rounds

"I actually like the over three and a half more than anything but I think we're going to see Taira controlling the majority of this matchup by getting it into the grappling realm"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2025 (fight day)

Tatsuro Taira

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Taira's striking improvement and elite grappling. He highlights Taira's ability to get to the back and control opponents, and his five-round experience against top competition. Paul thinks Taira wins more often than not even at a sizable favorite price.

"I expect him to roll through park."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Royval as an upset, citing his scrambling ability, pressure, and durability. He questions Taira's hype, noting close fights with Perez and Shevchenko, and believes Royval can make Taira break in a five-round fight. He expects Royval to win by late-round TKO, as Taira hasn't faced someone as lanky and rangy, and Royval has shown he can hang with top flyweights like Pantoja and Moreno.

late rounds TKO

"I am going to go Roy Val... I think he can make tayra break I think he can put pressure on him... I'm going to say Roy Val gets this one done by like late rounds TKO"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Tatsuro Taira

Zane picks Taira because Royval's defensive wrestling is terrible and Taira is a good takedown artist with dangerous ground control. He notes that Royval's striking volume is often ineffective and that Taira can find takedowns consistently. Zane believes Royval's only path is if Taira fights terribly, but otherwise Taira should win.

Royval opened at +170, now +213; Taira opened at -194, now -248. Odds drifting Taira's way.

"I am going to be picking tatsura taira. I think he is going to have all kinds of ways of finding takedowns on royville and it's just really is a question of if he goes for them consistently and I …"

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Brandon Moreno

Decision (split) (48–47, 46–49, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Brandon Royval	0	112 of 211	53%	119 of 219	3 of 5	60%	0	0	2:54
Brandon Moreno	0	145 of 510	28%	177 of 556	1 of 2	50%	0	0	0:35

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Brandon Royval	15 of 23	65%	15 of 23	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Brandon Moreno	12 of 43	27%	12 of 43	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Brandon Royval	22 of 45	48%	22 of 46	1 of 1	100%	0:37
2	Brandon Moreno	18 of 87	20%	22 of 91	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Brandon Royval	17 of 31	54%	17 of 31	2 of 3	66%	0:27
3	Brandon Moreno	25 of 79	31%	26 of 81	0 of 1	0%	0:00
4	Brandon Royval	29 of 58	50%	29 of 58	0 of 1	0%	0:00
4	Brandon Moreno	49 of 161	30%	60 of 179	1 of 1	100%	0:33
5	Brandon Royval	29 of 54	53%	36 of 61	0 of 0	---	1:50
5	Brandon Moreno	41 of 140	29%	57 of 162	0 of 0	---	0:02

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Brandon Royval	112 of 211	53%	48 of 127	37 of 51	27 of 33	103 of 191	7 of 17	2 of 3
Brandon Moreno	145 of 510	28%	97 of 437	38 of 54	10 of 19	142 of 504	3 of 6	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Brandon Royval	15 of 23	65%	6 of 12	5 of 5	4 of 6	14 of 21	1 of 2	0 of 0
1	Brandon Moreno	12 of 43	27%	6 of 31	5 of 8	1 of 4	11 of 42	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Brandon Royval	22 of 45	48%	13 of 34	5 of 5	4 of 6	20 of 43	1 of 1	1 of 1
2	Brandon Moreno	18 of 87	20%	7 of 66	8 of 16	3 of 5	18 of 87	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Brandon Royval	17 of 31	54%	7 of 20	4 of 5	6 of 6	15 of 27	1 of 2	1 of 2
3	Brandon Moreno	25 of 79	31%	13 of 61	8 of 12	4 of 6	24 of 76	1 of 3	0 of 0
4	Brandon Royval	29 of 58	50%	7 of 27	13 of 20	9 of 11	28 of 54	1 of 4	0 of 0
4	Brandon Moreno	49 of 161	30%	37 of 147	11 of 11	1 of 3	48 of 159	1 of 2	0 of 0
5	Brandon Royval	29 of 54	53%	15 of 34	10 of 16	4 of 4	26 of 46	3 of 8	0 of 0
5	Brandon Moreno	41 of 140	29%	34 of 132	6 of 7	1 of 1	41 of 140	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Angelo is very confident in Moreno, citing his pace, toughness, and improvement since their last fight. He believes Moreno is better everywhere and will eventually break Royval, likely in the fourth or fifth round. He notes Moreno already won this fight once and will do it again at home.

likely fourth or fifth round finish

"Moreno is a very confident pick here he has already won this fight I think he wins this fight again"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno to win by decision. He notes that Moreno has never been finished in 30 fights, which is crucial against a finisher like Royval. He believes Moreno has more paths to win, especially by taking the fight to the mat where Royval has poor takedown defense (40%). He thinks Moreno can control Royval on the ground and potentially submit him, but leans toward a decision. He questions Royval's ability to win a decision or finish Moreno.

Moreno wins by decision

"I like the minute winning ability especially on the ground for Moreno and I'll pick him to win this fight I'm torn between decision or submission um I don't know I think I'm I'm leaning more towards decision for Brandon …"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Cody picks Moreno, citing Moreno's cast-iron chin, takedown ability, and the fact that Royval is coming in on short notice after a five-round war with Pantoja eight weeks ago. He notes Royval's takedown defense is a serious problem and that Moreno already beat him once. He acknowledges the line is justifiable and is not playing contrarian.

"Mareno is the favorite is he this big of a favorite it's justifiable and I'm not going to play contrarian I'll take the favorite"

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

The host expects Moreno to replicate his first fight strategy by using his wrestling advantage to control Royval on the ground. He notes Moreno's good submission defense against Royval's aggressive style. Even if the fight stays standing, Moreno is the more technical striker. He predicts Moreno will grind out a decision victory.

"I think that's going to come to fruition once again as Moreno grinds this fight out utilizing his wrestling advantage to get this Victory on the scorecards even if this fight ends up playing out in the Striking room I …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Moreno. He highlights Moreno's cast-iron durability as kryptonite to Royval's game, and notes that Moreno's ability to mix in takedowns will secure rounds in front of a hometown crowd. He also mentions Royval's short-notice turnaround and the altitude disadvantage, though Royval trains in Denver.

"I'll take the favorite yeah I mean the the Saving Grace as opposed four Ro Val is that he trains in Denver"

Bookie Beatdown

LOSS vs Alexandre Pantoja

Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Alexandre Pantoja	0	95 of 156	60%	126 of 195	8 of 14	57%	1	0	15:51
Brandon Royval	0	111 of 204	54%	281 of 390	0 of 1	0%	0	2	0:47

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Alexandre Pantoja	27 of 40	67%	29 of 42	1 of 2	50%	0	0	2:50
1	Brandon Royval	13 of 30	43%	40 of 61	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:01
2	Alexandre Pantoja	10 of 15	66%	24 of 30	2 of 3	66%	0	0	3:44
2	Brandon Royval	12 of 16	75%	80 of 90	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
3	Alexandre Pantoja	17 of 26	65%	23 of 38	2 of 5	40%	0	0	2:13
3	Brandon Royval	24 of 46	52%	63 of 86	0 of 1	0%	0	1	0:06
4	Alexandre Pantoja	0 of 1	0%	1 of 3	1 of 2	50%	1	0	4:21
4	Brandon Royval	7 of 14	50%	28 of 38	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:31
5	Alexandre Pantoja	41 of 74	55%	49 of 82	2 of 2	100%	0	0	2:43
5	Brandon Royval	55 of 98	56%	70 of 115	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:09

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Alexandre Pantoja	95 of 156	60%	49 of 101	22 of 30	24 of 25	74 of 130	5 of 6	16 of 20
Brandon Royval	111 of 204	54%	102 of 193	7 of 9	2 of 2	91 of 177	5 of 6	15 of 21

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Alexandre Pantoja	27 of 40	67%	9 of 19	10 of 13	8 of 8	19 of 30	2 of 3	6 of 7
1	Brandon Royval	13 of 30	43%	11 of 28	1 of 1	1 of 1	9 of 25	0 of 1	4 of 4
2	Alexandre Pantoja	10 of 15	66%	5 of 8	4 of 6	1 of 1	6 of 10	1 of 1	3 of 4
2	Brandon Royval	12 of 16	75%	9 of 13	3 of 3	0 of 0	8 of 12	1 of 1	3 of 3
3	Alexandre Pantoja	17 of 26	65%	5 of 14	6 of 6	6 of 6	15 of 24	2 of 2	0 of 0
3	Brandon Royval	24 of 46	52%	21 of 43	2 of 2	1 of 1	20 of 42	2 of 2	2 of 2
4	Alexandre Pantoja	0 of 1	0%	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Brandon Royval	7 of 14	50%	7 of 14	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 2	0 of 0	6 of 12
5	Alexandre Pantoja	41 of 74	55%	30 of 59	2 of 5	9 of 10	34 of 65	0 of 0	7 of 9
5	Brandon Royval	55 of 98	56%	54 of 95	1 of 3	0 of 0	53 of 96	2 of 2	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Alexandre Pantoja

Angelo picks Pantoja to win by finish in the third or fourth round, citing Pantoja's grappling advantage and Royval's low takedown defense. He notes that Pantoja already won the rematch two years ago and expects a similar outcome. He has a 'good size bet' on Pantoja.

Good size bet on Pantoja; finish in round 3 or 4

"I see Pantoja winning this fight by finish third or fourth round... I do have a good size bet on him"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Alexandre Pantoja

Big Brady picks Pantoja to win by first-round submission, recalling their first fight where Pantoja was exhausted but capitalized on a Royval mistake to choke him out. He notes Royval's poor striking defense (50% striking defense) and tendency to make mistakes on the mat, giving up his back and position. Brady believes Pantoja's submission game is elite and that Royval cannot afford errors at this level. He expects an exciting banger but sees Pantoja finding a finish early.

"I like Pantoja here I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round submission"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Cody picks Royval as an underdog, citing his chaotic style, improved striking, and ability to scramble back to his feet after takedowns. He notes that Royval trains at altitude in Denver and has solid cardio, while Pantoja's cardio is overblown but his body language looks tired. Cody acknowledges the risk: Royval has durability issues and was submitted by Pantoja before, but at +160 he sees value.

"I'm going to go with Roy Val Underdog pick here"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Daniel Vreeland picks Brandon Royval as an upset, attributing Royval's loss in the first fight to a rushed return from injury. He believes Royval's striking has improved and that his scrambles will keep the fight on the feet. Vreeland notes Royval's recent wins over Matt Schnell and Kai Kara-France by submission show his dangerous ground game. He thinks Royval can hang with Pantoja on the feet and win the rematch.

"I'm gonna go upset here I'm gonna go raw dog"

MMA Gambling Podcast

Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Alexandre Pantoja

Jeff Fox picks Alexandre Pantoja, stating he is the better fighter overall and has already beaten Royval. He questions the quality of Royval's recent opponents, noting that Pantoja has faced tougher competition. Fox believes Pantoja will successfully defend his title for the first time.

"Pantoja is my pick here"

MMA Gambling Podcast

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Lucrative James picks Brandon Royval outright. He believes Royval was breaking Pantoja in their first fight before getting submitted, and he thinks Royval's pace is the highest at flyweight. He argues that Pantoja may have been breaking and that Royval's motivation is higher as the challenger. He acknowledges Pantoja's submission threat but feels the value is on Royval as an underdog.

"I'm actually picking Brandon Royval outright... I just don't think Pantoja is going to be able to keep up with him."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Alexandre Pantoja

The host favors Pantoja due to his discipline, technique, and masterful Jiu-Jitsu, which he believes will be too much for Royval's chaotic style. He notes that in their first fight, Pantoja consistently secured Royval's back and eventually got a rear-naked choke. He also points out Royval's poor takedown defense and expects Pantoja to get the fight to the ground and find a submission. He acknowledges Royval's upset potential but trusts the more reliable fighter.

Pantoja by submission, under 2.5 rounds

"I think pantoja's discipline technique and just overall masterful approach to his Jiu-Jitsu is going to be too much to for Roy Val here and that will allow panta to get his hand raised"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Alexandre Pantoja

Paul picks Pantoja, arguing that Royval's level of competition is lower and that Pantoja has never been finished. He points to Pantoja's performance against Brandon Moreno where he landed 129 significant strikes, a knockdown, and six takedowns. Paul believes Pantoja's cardio issues are overblown and that Royval tends to fade in dogfights, while Pantoja is an absolute dog.

Pantoja by submission +155

"I think it's Pantoja by sub would be interesting"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Alexandre Pantoja

The Guru picks Pantoja over Royval, noting Pantoja's improved ground control and back-taking ability, as seen against Moreno and Perez. He acknowledges Royval's scrambling but believes Pantoja's chin is solid and Royval is hittable. He predicts Pantoja will knock down Royval and secure a rear-naked choke in round one.

Pantoja by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 1

"I'm going to say round one Pantoja knocks down Roy Val towards the three minute Mark and gets a rear naked choke towards the end of the round"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Matheus Nicolau

KO (knee and elbows) R1 2:09 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Brandon Royval	1	13 of 22	59%	13 of 22	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:07
Matheus Nicolau	0	2 of 5	40%	2 of 5	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Brandon Royval	1	13 of 22	59%	13 of 22	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:07
1	Matheus Nicolau	0	2 of 5	40%	2 of 5	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Brandon Royval	13 of 22	59%	13 of 20	0 of 1	0 of 1	3 of 9	0 of 0	10 of 13
Matheus Nicolau	2 of 5	40%	1 of 4	0 of 0	1 of 1	2 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Brandon Royval	13 of 22	59%	13 of 20	0 of 1	0 of 1	3 of 9	0 of 0	10 of 13
1	Matheus Nicolau	2 of 5	40%	1 of 4	0 of 0	1 of 1	2 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Matheus Nicolau

Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau, citing his technical striking and methodical grappling. He believes Nicolau's technical striking will overcome Royval's chaos, and that Royval won't be able to take Nicolau down, making it a kickboxing match where Nicolau shines. He notes Royval was dropped badly by Schnell. He has a half-unit moneyline bet on Nicolau at -155.

half unit moneyline bet at -155

"I think his technical striking should be able to get through the chaos that Brandon Roy Val creates"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Big Brady picks Brandon Royval to win by first-round knockout. He describes Royval as a wild, unique fighter who thrives in chaos, while Nicolau is calm and composed. He believes Royval's style will force a brawl, and notes Nicolau has been knocked out before. He expects fireworks and a finish.

first round knockout

"I'm going to take Roy Val to knock out Mateus nickel out here I'll say he does it in the first round"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Matheus Nicolau

Cody thinks Nicolau is technically sound and should weather Royval's early chaos. He notes Royval is dangerous early but tends to fade and is injury-prone. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop as well.

Under 2.5 rounds (-120)

"I think eventually Mateus nicolao gets the job done here and under two and a half rounds is minus 120"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Matheus Nicolau

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Nicolau's counter striking is excellently timed and that he has the wrestling to handle Royval's scrambles. He also notes that Nicolau is a solid positional grappler and can be the one with key switch-ups.

"I think more than most fighters that Rival tries to march down and overwhelm, he's going to find counters hard to come by here."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Royval's chaos and output will overwhelm Nicolau, who tends to have close fights and low output. Royval's scrambling and submission threat create opportunities. Nicolau's discipline may crack under pressure. Royval can finish inside the distance, as his style leads to finishes. Under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.

Under 2.5 rounds; Royval wins inside the distance

"I'm gonna go with the raw dog here as the underdog I'm going to take him to win this fight inside the distance."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Matheus Nicolau

Paul agrees, calling Royval 'frail' and noting his tendency to get finished. He thinks Nicolau's accurate counter-striking and durability will lead to a finish or clear decision. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.

Under 2.5 rounds

"I'm just uh locking in under two and a half at minus 110 right now"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Matheus Nicolau

The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau, praising his technical, composed style and BJJ background. He believes Nicolau will read Royval's wild, tornado-like approach and make him pay, potentially by submission or KO. He notes Royval's size and unpredictability but thinks Nicolau's polish and 93% takedown defense will be decisive.

Nicolau wins by finish (submission or KO)

"give me Mathias nicolao to get the job done"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Matheus Nicolau

Zane picks Nicolau because he is a cleaner fighter and a better counter puncher. He notes that Nicolau has the wrestling component to his counter game, which gives him an option to interrupt Royval's relentless pressure. He also mentions that Nicolau is a bigger striker with excellent timing and can handle Royval's grappling.

"But I just think Nicolau is a cleaner. He's, he's just a better fighter than Rival, I think."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Matt Schnell

Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:14 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Brandon Royval	0	14 of 39	35%	14 of 39	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:13
Matt Schnell	1	12 of 33	36%	15 of 36	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:54

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Brandon Royval	0	14 of 39	35%	14 of 39	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:13
1	Matt Schnell	1	12 of 33	36%	15 of 36	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:54

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Brandon Royval	14 of 39	35%	9 of 33	2 of 3	3 of 3	13 of 37	1 of 1	0 of 1
Matt Schnell	12 of 33	36%	9 of 29	3 of 4	0 of 0	10 of 28	0 of 0	2 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Brandon Royval	14 of 39	35%	9 of 33	2 of 3	3 of 3	13 of 37	1 of 1	0 of 1
1	Matt Schnell	12 of 33	36%	9 of 29	3 of 4	0 of 0	10 of 28	0 of 0	2 of 5

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Brandon Royval vs. Matt Schnell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Royval (-240), Schnell (+195)

Round 1
The opener of the prelim card – which differs slightly from the early preliminaries even if they remain on the same network – is sure to be a wild one for as long as it lasts. All-action Royval (13-6, 3-2 UFC) ended the first two-fight skid of his career in January by claiming a decision over Rogerio Bontorin, while Schnell (15-5, 1 NC; 5-3, 1 NC UFC) will be returning to action for the first time in nearly a year since he also took on Bontorin. Of note, while Schnell did drop a decision to Bontorin that night, Bontorin tested positive for banned supplements and the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation overturned it to a no contest. Both looking to get the taste of Bontorin out of their mouths, so to speak, they touch gloves in front of referee Ryan Brueggeman to move along in their careers. Schnell starts off with a barrage of punches, and Royval greets him with punches and a head kick of his own. Royval steps in with a knee to back Schnell off, and Royval slings a few head kicks for good measure. Royval goes low and then high with kicks, and Schnell walks through them to launch a right hand. These two flyweights are swinging for the fences early, and both are connecting frequently. Schnell snaps the head back with a left hand, and Royval responds with a left of his own. Schnell bears down on him and drills Royval with a right hand, and Royval hits the ground and immediately goes fishing for a leglock. Royval rolls for a heel hook, and Schnell turns all his way around and through it to lower himself to the mat on top. Royval sets up an omoplata shoulder lock to force a sweep, and Schnell wrenches his arm free and snags hold of a guillotine choke. Royval rolls through it and looks for a brabo choke.
This does not land, so “Raw Dawg” turns it to a guillotine choke. As soon as he cinches it up, he pulls guard and locks a leg around Schnell’s waist. The grip from Royval is so crushingly tight that Schnell thinks about fighting out of it, and suddenly realizes he is in grave danger and taps out with both hands.
Brueggeman takes a moment to register the taps, and he jumps in to separate the fighters after their short but memorable thriller.

The Official Result
Brandon Royval def. Matt Schnell R1 2:14 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Angelo picks Brandon Royval, citing his forward pressure and sneaky grappling as the difference. He notes that both fighters are willing to bang but Royval is a better pure grappler. He expects a potential fight of the night.

"roy val's forward pressure and sneaky grappling will be the difference here so roy val is the pick"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Big Brady picks Brandon Royval to win by first-round knockout. He believes this is a nightmare matchup for Schnell because Royval will force a brawl, and Schnell has a history of being knocked out (by Font, Sandoval, Pantoja). Schnell has changed his style to be more cautious, but Royval's pressure will drag him into a war. Royval has the striking advantage, durability, and dangerous ground game. Schnell is not a strong offensive wrestler, so he cannot exploit Royval's poor takedown defense. Brady expects Royval to finish Schnell in brutal fashion in the first round.

first round knockout

"I think royval runs through him I think roy val finishes matt schnell in the very first round if match nell's not gonna come out here and wrestle which I don't think he will I think he's in some serious …"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Cody picks Brandon Royval, noting that Schnell's chin is suspect and Royval's unorthodox striking and grappling are at a higher level. He points out that Royval has wins over Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France, while Schnell has beaten lower-level opposition. Cody believes Royval can win standing or on the ground, and expects a stoppage. He is confident in Royval as one of his key plays.

"i think he's the rightful guy minus 240 don't mind it i'm gonna play him"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Daniel Levi picks Brandon Royval confidently, though he does not bet due to the high price. He likes Royval's pace, pressure, and opportunistic submissions. He notes Schnell is technically sound but lacks durability and takedown ability. He considers a KO prop for Royval at +460 but does not pull the trigger.

Daniel considers a Royval KO prop at +460 but does not bet. He passes on betting altogether.

"My pick is Royvall. I'm passing all together."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)

Brandon Royval

The host picks Royval to win but prefers betting the under 2.5 rounds at -145. He highlights Royval's chaotic style that overwhelms opponents, using the Kai Kara-France fight as an example. He notes Schnell is technically better but will struggle with Royval's pace and unpredictability. He acknowledges Royval leaves himself vulnerable to submissions, but expects the fight to end inside the distance, likely with Royval winning. He is concerned about Royval's price at -235 and prefers the under.

under 2.5 rounds -145; fight doesn't go to decision -170

"the pick is still gonna be roy val it's just too difficult for me to trust him at minus 235 minus 240 considering how he fights"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

Paul picks Brandon Royval and is also interested in the under 2.5 rounds. He notes that Schnell has chin issues and Royval's volume and pace could clip him. Paul thinks Royval can get a finish, but also acknowledges that Royval's own pace could lead to him wilting. He likes the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop and plans to parlay it with the Cerrone-Lauzon under.

under 2.5 rounds at -145; fight doesn't go to decision at -170

"i'm picking roy val as well to get the job done um matt schnell i i don't think i've ever picked him though"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Brandon Royval

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Royval, citing his wildness and finishing ability. He notes Royval has good submissions and KO power, and believes he will bait Schnell into a scrap and catch him. He criticizes Schnell's chin and predictable style. He predicts a first-round TKO, possibly via spinning elbow.

"i'm gonna trust in brandon royval's wildness and his ko ability in the flyweight division to get this one done over match nell"

THE MMA GURU

View all 13 fights

Brandon Moreno - Fight History

LOSS vs Lone'er Kavanagh

Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Brandon Moreno	0	79 of 168	47%	134 of 229	0 of 8	0%	0	0	7:20
Lone'er Kavanagh	0	97 of 205	47%	136 of 245	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Brandon Moreno	19 of 40	47%	19 of 40	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Lone'er Kavanagh	18 of 45	40%	18 of 45	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Brandon Moreno	24 of 54	44%	24 of 54	0 of 1	0%	0:00
2	Lone'er Kavanagh	42 of 83	50%	42 of 83	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Brandon Moreno	16 of 40	40%	31 of 56	0 of 3	0%	1:21
3	Lone'er Kavanagh	17 of 44	38%	20 of 47	0 of 0	---	0:00
4	Brandon Moreno	9 of 15	60%	31 of 42	0 of 2	0%	3:08
4	Lone'er Kavanagh	8 of 14	57%	29 of 35	0 of 0	---	0:00
5	Brandon Moreno	11 of 19	57%	29 of 37	0 of 2	0%	2:51
5	Lone'er Kavanagh	12 of 19	63%	27 of 35	0 of 1	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Brandon Moreno	79 of 168	47%	51 of 133	15 of 21	13 of 14	69 of 154	10 of 14	0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh	97 of 205	47%	60 of 160	18 of 24	19 of 21	92 of 198	5 of 7	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Brandon Moreno	19 of 40	47%	14 of 34	3 of 4	2 of 2	19 of 40	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Lone'er Kavanagh	18 of 45	40%	10 of 33	3 of 7	5 of 5	18 of 45	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Brandon Moreno	24 of 54	44%	13 of 40	6 of 9	5 of 5	23 of 53	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Lone'er Kavanagh	42 of 83	50%	30 of 70	5 of 6	7 of 7	39 of 78	3 of 5	0 of 0
3	Brandon Moreno	16 of 40	40%	13 of 35	2 of 4	1 of 1	16 of 39	0 of 1	0 of 0
3	Lone'er Kavanagh	17 of 44	38%	11 of 37	5 of 5	1 of 2	17 of 44	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Brandon Moreno	9 of 15	60%	5 of 10	1 of 1	3 of 4	5 of 8	4 of 7	0 of 0
4	Lone'er Kavanagh	8 of 14	57%	4 of 8	1 of 2	3 of 4	7 of 13	1 of 1	0 of 0
5	Brandon Moreno	11 of 19	57%	6 of 14	3 of 3	2 of 2	6 of 14	5 of 5	0 of 0
5	Lone'er Kavanagh	12 of 19	63%	5 of 12	4 of 4	3 of 3	11 of 18	1 of 1	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Angelo hesitantly picks Brandon Moreno, acknowledging that Lone'er Kavanagh is fast and accurate and could give Moreno trouble early. He notes Moreno's five-round experience and toughness as key advantages, expecting him to outlast Kavanagh who may fade. He admits if it were a three-round fight with a full camp, he would pick Kavanagh.

Says he wouldn't be comfortable parlaying Moreno at almost three to one.

"I'm going to pick Moreno. I think he can just literally outlast Loner. But if this was a three round fight with a full fight camp, I'd be picking Loner Kavanaaugh right now."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno, citing his hometown advantage, experience as a former champion, and step down in competition. He notes Kavanagh looked good in the first round against Charles Johnson but faded and got knocked out. Brady believes Moreno's cardio, pressure, and minute-winning ability will lead to a decision win, possibly a late finish if Kavanagh slows down.

decision

"Give me Brandon Moreno to win this fight and win it by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Cody points out Moreno's recent stylistic changes, lack of wrestling, and potential decline. He highlights Kavanagh's speed and power, and the danger of an early knockout. Despite these concerns, he picks Moreno due to the difficulty of betting against him, but strongly advises live betting or hedging.

"I will take Mareno just where whereas the narrative seems to be it's all Moreno and this is an easy fight... I think that there's some very real danger."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Connor agrees with Zane that Moreno should win, but he is slightly less confident due to Moreno's recent inconsistent performances. He notes that Moreno sometimes makes weird mistakes and that Kavanagh is a dangerous counterpuncher with speed and accuracy. However, Connor ultimately believes Moreno's experience and ability to pressure will be too much for Kavanagh, especially given Kavanagh's stamina concerns.

Kavanagh's counterpunching threat; Moreno's occasional weird mistakes; altitude factor

"I am forced to agree."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Daniel picks Brandon Moreno to win, citing his well-rounded skills and fight IQ. He notes Moreno's takedown advantage against Royval's poor takedown defense, but acknowledges Royval's danger on the feet with unorthodox strikes. He expects Moreno to exploit takedown defense and control the fight on the ground, though he warns that Moreno has been dropped in recent fights.

"I think Brandon Moreno should get this one done too well-rounded and especially if he comes out here smart exploits that takedown defense of royval"

Half the Battle

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)

Brandon Moreno

The host is betting on Moreno despite his decline, because the circumstances heavily favor him. Moreno has experience fighting in Mexico City, excellent cardio, and has never been knocked out. Kavanagh is inexperienced (10 pro fights), a volume striker with no knockout power, and is fighting on short notice at high altitude. The host believes Kavanagh would need to finish Moreno or win a clear decision, both unlikely. He plans to parlay Moreno with Zellhuber.

Parlaying him with Daniel Zellhuber.

"I am happy to bet Moreno at big favorite odds here. He is on a decline. There's no doubt about it. But the probability of Kavanaaugh going to Mexico City on short notice with only 10 pro fights and getting …"

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Lone'er Kavanagh

James believes Kavanagh is one of the best flyweights despite his loss to Charles Johnson, citing his speed, footwork, and counter-striking. He questions Moreno's consistency and recent performance, noting Moreno's age and potential decline. James sees value in Kavanagh at +210 odds, predicting Moreno may not push the pace needed to exploit Kavanagh's cardio concerns.

"I'm going to say that Lona Kavanaaugh is the value side here. I'm going to say Lona Cavanar is the winner of this fight."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

The host picks Brandon Moreno inside the distance, expecting a round 4 or 5 finish. He notes Moreno's experience, cardio, and durability, and believes Kavanagh will fade in the later rounds due to altitude and short notice. He is surprised the line moved to -225 and considers it a great value. He predicts a late TKO or submission.

"Give me Brandon Moreno uh round four or five, TKO, maybe even submission."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Paul acknowledges Moreno's experience and cardio advantage, especially at altitude. He notes Moreno's wrestling and submission game are superior, and expects Moreno to take over in later rounds. He is puzzled by the money coming in on Kavanagh and recommends Moreno as a parlay piece, but suggests live betting for better value.

"I think Moreno's got the better wrestling and he's got the better submission game, and I think he's got the better cardio."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)

Brandon Moreno

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Moreno, noting that Lone'er Kavanagh has a cardio issue and gasses after about 7 minutes. He argues that Moreno is hard to finish early and that Kavanagh's only path to victory is a first-round TKO, which is unlikely at Mexico City altitude. He predicts a late-rounds TKO for Moreno, possibly in rounds 4 or 5.

round four or five TKO

"I'm going to go with Brandon Moreno round four or five TKO."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Zane picks Moreno because Kavanagh is not ready for this level of competition, especially on short notice and at altitude. He notes that Kavanagh's gas tank was a problem against Charles Johnson, and Moreno's experience and ability to set a comfortable tempo will likely overwhelm him. Zane also mentions that Moreno has a reach advantage and is fighting at home, which should help him make better decisions.

Kavanagh's gas tank issues at altitude; Moreno's reach advantage; Kavanagh on three weeks notice; first five-round fight for Kavanagh

"I have to pick Moreno. It's an opportunity for Kavanaugh. Like, I get why both men took this fight."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Tatsuro Taira

KO R2 2:24 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Brandon Moreno	0	9 of 17	52%	9 of 17	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:05
Tatsuro Taira	0	28 of 48	58%	45 of 65	1 of 4	25%	0	1	4:27

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Brandon Moreno	2 of 4	50%	2 of 4	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:05
1	Tatsuro Taira	2 of 9	22%	18 of 25	0 of 1	0%	0	1	3:33
2	Brandon Moreno	7 of 13	53%	7 of 13	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
2	Tatsuro Taira	26 of 39	66%	27 of 40	1 of 3	33%	0	0	0:54

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Brandon Moreno	9 of 17	52%	8 of 14	0 of 2	1 of 1	7 of 15	0 of 0	2 of 2
Tatsuro Taira	28 of 48	58%	23 of 42	3 of 3	2 of 3	7 of 19	2 of 4	19 of 25

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Brandon Moreno	2 of 4	50%	2 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 2	0 of 0	2 of 2
1	Tatsuro Taira	2 of 9	22%	1 of 7	1 of 1	0 of 1	0 of 4	1 of 3	1 of 2
2	Brandon Moreno	7 of 13	53%	6 of 10	0 of 2	1 of 1	7 of 13	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Tatsuro Taira	26 of 39	66%	22 of 35	2 of 2	2 of 2	7 of 15	1 of 1	18 of 23

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-142), Moreno (+120)

Round 1
Mark Smith is the referee. Taira opens up with a quick and powerful right hand in what is a largely deliberate opening minute. Taira thinks about a shot, then resets and gets reversed on his takedown attempt. Moreno is on his back with a triangle locked in early. This is bad news for Taira to be trapped in this maneuver so early in the fight. Fortunately for the Japanese prospect, Moreno doesn’t quite have the position he needs to really apply the squeeze. Taira has Moreno stacked and he lifts and slams his foe down. That might have allowed Moreno to adjust the hold and tighten it. Taira seems to be OK with a little more than a minute remaining. Taira tries to fire some punches while in the awkward position. Moreno finally loses the hold in the waning seconds. Taira grabs a front headlock and they separate before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno

Round 2
Moreno pumps a jab but Taira answers with an uppercut. Moreno with a low kick and he follows that with a combination, landing a crafty lead hook. Taira drops low for a takedown, but Moreno sprawls effectively and counters. Taira doesn’t give up, and he closes the distance ands a trip takedown moments later. The Japanese prospect takes the back, locks in a body triangle and begins to tee off with ground-and-pound from back control. Taira flattens the former champ out and continues to unload with unanswered punches. Moreno is still moving from the bottom, but Smith has seen enough. As Taira tosses his mouthguard in celebration, Moreno questions if the stoppage might have been premature. It won’t matter, as Taira becomes the first person to finish Moreno in professional MMA competition.

The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. Brandon Moreno via TKO (Punches) R2 2:24

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Angelo picks Brandon Moreno, citing his experience, well-rounded skills, and relentless pace. He believes Moreno's striking will be a problem for Taira and that Taira's takedowns are not good enough to keep Moreno down. He notes that Alex Perez outstruck Taira before his knee injury. Angelo is surprised that Moreno is an underdog and considers betting if the odds become favorable.

potential bet if odds reach +150

"Brandon Moreno is the pick. I think he gets it done."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)

Tatsuro Taira

Big Brady picks Tatsuro Taira, citing his elite grappling and control, and believes he will take Moreno down and win rounds. He acknowledges Moreno's striking advantage but expects Taira's takedowns to be decisive. He predicts Taira wins by decision.

Taira by decision

"I'm going to take the Turret Tayara to win this fight. I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Cody picks Moreno, highlighting his experience, durability, and scrambling ability. He notes that Moreno has never been finished as a pro and has fought the best in the division. He believes Taira is not a refined product and relies on getting the back, which Moreno's scrambling will neutralize. He expects Moreno to outwork Taira and win by decision.

"I go with Brendon Moreno. I think it's like super slight plus money and basically a pick them."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Connor picks Moreno, citing his experience and technical edge. He notes that Taira struggles to set up takedowns and relies on opponents overextending, while Moreno has strong wrestling defense and can hit his own takedowns. Connor acknowledges that Moreno sometimes fights stupidly, but even then he has a good chance. He believes Moreno's methodical pressure and straight punches will be effective against Taira's limited striking arsenal.

Odds: Moreno opened -110, now +105; Taira opened -110, now -125. Notes that the line movement is an age play, but Moreno is only 31.

"I'm going to pick Moreno as well, but I do have my worries. My worries are mostly couched in: will Brandon Moreno go out there and just throw one overhand over and over again?"

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)

Tatsuro Taira

Daniel picks Taira, impressed by his back-taking ability and heart shown in the Royval fight. He believes Taira's grappling is elite and that Moreno may struggle with it, similar to how Pantoja took Moreno's back. He sees Taira's standup improving and thinks he can win a competitive fight, possibly by controlling rounds with back takes.

"I like Tyra here, man. I feel like his standup is catching up. He's making leaps and so young."

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Lucrative James favors Moreno on the feet and believes his takedown defense is better than Brandon Royval's, which will help him avoid Taira's grappling. He notes Moreno's preparation with Mikey Musumeci and thinks Moreno's experience in five-round fights gives him an edge in a three-round contest. He expects a close split decision but picks Moreno to edge it.

"My official pick is going to be Brandon Moreno."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Tatsuro Taira

The host believes Taira will continue his winning ways by putting Moreno in bad positions. He notes that Moreno is not as good a scrambler as Brandon Royval, which will keep him in bad positions for at least two rounds, allowing Taira to win on the scorecards.

win by decision

"I think Tyra will continue his winning ways as he puts Moreno into bad positions... that will ultimately keep Moreno in bad positions for at least two rounds to allow Tyra to win this fight on the scorecards."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Moreno's advantages in striking, experience, durability, and cardio. He notes that Taira's only top-tier fight was against Brandon Royval, where he lost and was outstruck. He believes Moreno's leg kicks and scrambling will be key, and he picks Moreno by decision.

"Brandon Marino is one of these guys that you can trust will fight for your dollar. And that's all I'm asking for."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Tatsuro Taira

The Guru picks Tatsuro Taira over Brandon Moreno, citing Taira's back-taking ability and Moreno's recent decline. He notes Taira's grappling and range striking will be effective in a three-round fight. The Guru predicts a 29-28 decision win for Taira.

"I'm going to go with Tatirote here. Momentum back on his side after his recent victory."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Zane also picks Moreno, emphasizing that Taira's takedown entries are telegraphed and that Moreno's wrestling is far superior to Royval's, who still managed to defend takedowns. He notes that Taira's striking is limited to a 1-2 with occasional kicks, while Moreno can apply pressure from range. Zane worries about Moreno's tendency to fight recklessly but believes his advantages in experience and grappling outweigh that risk.

Same odds commentary as Connor.

"I think I'm calling it for Brandon Moreno personally. I think it's hard to call because... is Brandon Moreno going to look normal?"

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Steve Erceg

Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Brandon Moreno	0	89 of 176	50%	95 of 182	1 of 5	20%	0	0	1:25
Steve Erceg	0	116 of 279	41%	119 of 282	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Brandon Moreno	21 of 40	52%	21 of 40	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Steve Erceg	25 of 68	36%	25 of 68	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Brandon Moreno	21 of 46	45%	21 of 46	0 of 1	0%	0:00
2	Steve Erceg	27 of 48	56%	27 of 48	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Brandon Moreno	10 of 24	41%	10 of 24	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Steve Erceg	20 of 50	40%	20 of 50	0 of 0	---	0:00
4	Brandon Moreno	19 of 35	54%	21 of 37	0 of 3	0%	0:27
4	Steve Erceg	25 of 57	43%	26 of 58	0 of 0	---	0:00
5	Brandon Moreno	18 of 31	58%	22 of 35	1 of 1	100%	0:58
5	Steve Erceg	19 of 56	33%	21 of 58	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Brandon Moreno	89 of 176	50%	59 of 138	18 of 25	12 of 13	87 of 174	2 of 2	0 of 0
Steve Erceg	116 of 279	41%	90 of 237	11 of 24	15 of 18	115 of 278	1 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Brandon Moreno	21 of 40	52%	14 of 33	6 of 6	1 of 1	21 of 40	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Steve Erceg	25 of 68	36%	18 of 57	1 of 4	6 of 7	25 of 68	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Brandon Moreno	21 of 46	45%	14 of 37	1 of 3	6 of 6	20 of 45	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Steve Erceg	27 of 48	56%	20 of 39	4 of 6	3 of 3	26 of 47	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Brandon Moreno	10 of 24	41%	3 of 15	4 of 6	3 of 3	10 of 24	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Steve Erceg	20 of 50	40%	16 of 42	1 of 3	3 of 5	20 of 50	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Brandon Moreno	19 of 35	54%	15 of 29	4 of 6	0 of 0	18 of 34	1 of 1	0 of 0
4	Steve Erceg	25 of 57	43%	19 of 49	4 of 6	2 of 2	25 of 57	0 of 0	0 of 0
5	Brandon Moreno	18 of 31	58%	13 of 24	3 of 4	2 of 3	18 of 31	0 of 0	0 of 0
5	Steve Erceg	19 of 56	33%	17 of 50	1 of 5	1 of 1	19 of 56	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Moreno (-238), Erceg (+195)

Round 1
The only ranked matchup—meaning, fight between two fighters with numbers next to their names—is in the main event, and it should be a fun one. Former champ Moreno (22-8-2, 10-5-2 UFC) turned things around with a decision over Amir Albazi a few months ago, while Erceg (12-3, 3-2 UFC) has still not shaken the dust off after unsuccessfully vying for the flyweight strap. The triumphant man may position himself better towards another championship opportunity, while the defeated’s stock will take a serious hit. Referee Herb Dean brings the two 125ers to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and have the two bump their fists. They do. It’s on with the show. Jabs are outstretched to one another’s general direction, and Moreno commits first with a looping left hand. When the first misses, he fires it again and bangs it into Erceg’s temple. Moreno gets behind his jab, and he checks a kick aimed at his front leg. The lunging left gets through again, and he follows it with a left to the liver and a kick to the same spot. Moreno’s left side continues to get through, as he again blitzes with a left. Erceg sticks him with a few jabs and a right hand, and the low kick at the end of the combo is checked. Moreno pecks out a jab and a left hook, and Erceg walks him down to throw hands for a moment before splitting off. Moreno’s leaping left hand sends Erceg staggering off to the side, and he gathers his thoughts and pins a few punches on the raised guard. When Moreno’s left is established, he hurls out a right to surprise his opponent. Erceg drills him in the ribs with a pair of punches, and he comes up an inch or two shy of a snappy front kick. Chants in support of Moreno practically do not cease, with the crowd excited to celebrate each and every moment of success for their fighter. Moreno gets in again, and the audience booms in delight. Erceg gets off jabs and low kicks, but the power is firmly in the favor of the former champ. Erceg sneaks in a left shovel uppercut, and Moreno sits down with a body kick in response. Erceg flashes his jab a few more times, planting it at the top of the head. Moreno clacks him with another big overhand right, and a second shakes him up and forces him to jump away and shake it out. Moreno uses the opportunity to chop down the front leg, and jabs are where the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno

Round 2
Erceg rushes out of his corner to take the center of the Octagon, where he paws away jabs from his opponent and pitches a head kick up high. Moreno blocks and blasts Erceg with a right hand, and Erceg scoots away to not stay on the gunnery range. They crash together, and Erceg drives home a right hand and steps in with a knee. Erceg slips a punch to deliver an uppercut on the chin, and he tries to skirt away but takes two nasty leg kicks. Moreno steps in to fake like he will kick a third time, and goes up top with a left hand. Moreno dings Erceg with a second left, thwarting any attempt for Erceg to tie things up. Moreno times a counter right to knock Erceg back from a kick, and both men chain solid combinations together on one another. Moreno kicks the leg, and Erceg peppers out a jab. Moreno’s own jab allows him to get in and get off two left hooks, and he ducks down to mess with Erceg by grabbing his ankle. Erceg regains his balance and flicks the jab out, and he just misses a right hand and rushes away but gets kicked on the way out. Moreno drills Erceg with two clean hooks, and Erceg stands straight up and wonders what the number was of that bus. When he blinks out the damage, Erceg sticks his fists to the guard of his foe a few times. Moreno beats his man to the punch with a jab, and he lets a front kick go by so he can rip a left hand up top. Moreno capitalizes on the success with a low kick, and both men score single heavy hooks. Chins have been tested and answered the call well, with Erceg trying his foe’s out with a few punches and a high kick. Erceg hits a fade-back right hand, and the round closes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Erceg

Round 3
The round opens with Moreno faking to reach down for a level change. Erceg is not buying it, and jabs him in the face. Moreno lunges forward with a left hook, and he raises his guard just in time to block a kick. Moreno hits air on a pair of looping punches, with Erceg starting to see the power strikes coming. Moreno jabs the body and ignores a front kick that goes by, bobbing and weaving to move with jabs and not take anything flush. Erceg drives his opponent back with an uppercut, and Moreno reaches and barely lands at the end of his right hand. Erceg is slicker and more elusive than the last two rounds, but he still gets reached with kicks that are actively targeting him. Moreno flirts with checking kicks when Erceg kicks low, and he kicks the former challenger in the side. Erceg plants his fists on Moreno’s nose, kicking him in the front leg to mix things up. The fighters slip when trying to dodge one another, and then regain their footing as Erceg plants his feet to put a few punches together. Erceg sets up a knee to the body and backs off to avoid the counter, and he surprises Moreno with a front kick up the middle. Moreno fakes high to kick low, and he reaches with a few left hooks that continue to miss the mark. Erceg is more content to touch while Moreno loads up, but neither man is connecting at a particular high volume. One solid strike from Erceg comes in the form of a knee to the body, and as the round time expires, Moreno shrugs his shoulders.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno

Round 4
Having reached the championship rounds, the two pick up where they left off with jab attacks and kicks. Erceg aims to split the guard while Moreno wants to dig beneath or around it. Moreno successfully loops a single left around the defense of his opponent, and he pops Erceg with a second to force Erceg to stumble away. The Aussie is no worse for wear, wide-eyed to watch out for Moreno walking him down. Erceg forces Moreno to stay honest, keeping the jab in his face when not backing off to defend himself. Erceg times a front kick on the belly, hurting Moreno for a moment as the Mexican staggers back and forth confusedly. Moreno bites down on his mouthpiece and lunges into action, landing flush until Erceg kicks him upside the head. Another front kick from Erceg gives him a moment to breathe, as Moreno bears down on him looping heavy shots at him. Erceg jabs, follows the jabs and has to guard the oncoming fire from the former champ. Moreno starts talking to him, and Erceg grins when taking a few punches on the chin. Moreno goes high and then to the ribs, with his left hook drawing blood on the side of Erceg’s right eye. Erceg pays it no mind and kicks Moreno in the melon. Moreno laughs it off and swings back, and he keeps talking while throwing hands. Erceg defends from an overhand right, and he has his head kick pushed back while Moreno chases him around the cage. Moreno jabs the body, and the fans in the building start booing the fighters for their lack of heavy engagement after three rounds. Moreno shoots in for a single to quiet the masses momentarily, and he pulls Erceg to his seat and forces Erceg to scramble right before the bell. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno

Round 5
The crowd is largely on its feet as the fighters signal to them to give it up. The athletes are all smiles, and they get down to business by punching one another in the face in the final period of the fight. Moreno loads up on big right and lefts, and he lets Erceg try to do the same so he can make the Aussie hit air. Moreno sways and moves from a combo to let fly a left hand, torqueing his body in unusual ways to keep from being struck. Moreno winds up with a nasty leg kick, and a second is checked. Moreno jumps forward and possibly goes for a level change, but Erceg is having none of it and puts his hands in the former champ’s face. Erceg lifts up a kick that bangs into the raised guard, and when Moreno stings him, Erceg slips back. Moreno charges, ripping punches and hammering Erceg with a high kick. Erceg shells up and bounces off the fencing to reset, but he finds that Moreno is still right in front of him like always. An Erceg head kick mildly bumps into the guard, and Moreno reaches him with a right hook. Doubled jabs from the former beltholder lead to a right hand, and Erceg steels himself and drills Moreno in the chin. Erceg pushes out his jab, and Moreno does not budge an inch even when tagged. Moreno gives a bit of ground to lure Erceg in towards him, and when Erceg does not bite, he meanders forward. Erceg looses a head kick, and Moreno grabs it and hurls the former title challenger to his back. With 50 seconds to go, Moreno looks for a guard pass, positioning Erceg in an uncomfortable posture nearly doing a split on his back. Moreno successfully leaps over to the side with seconds to spare, and he jams down elbows until the horn concludes this five-round entanglement. Moreno stands and screams, waving off the doctor and pacing back and forth in anticipation of the result. Barring something unusual, Mexican fighters will end the night way ahead of foreign adversaries. Meanwhile, Moreno is about to pick up his first win in the Octagon on home soil. The former champion, who is now officially on a win streak, calls for an opportunity to compete at UFC 320 in Guadalajara, Mexico, this September. If he makes it on that event, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno (49-46 Moreno)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno (49-46 Moreno)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno (49-46 Moreno)

The Official Result
Brandon Moreno def. Steve Erceg via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Connor argues that Steve Erceg has been rushed into tough fights, facing Pantoja, Kai Kara-France, and now Moreno without proper development. He highlights Erceg's defensive boxing flaws, particularly his lack of head movement and tendency to overcommit. Connor believes Moreno's experience and technical superiority will exploit these weaknesses, leading to a Moreno win.

"His boxing defense is easily the worst part of his boxing game."

MMA Vivisection

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

James picks Brandon Moreno to win, citing Moreno's vast experience advantage (over 30 fights vs 15 for Erceg), superior durability, better cardio, and higher fight IQ. He notes Erceg has been knocked out recently and has shown poor decision-making in late rounds, as seen against Pantoja. James acknowledges the elevation factor but believes Moreno's gas tank is more reliable, especially late. He predicts a late stoppage or more likely a decision win for Moreno, and mentions that if there's value, it lies with Erceg as an underdog.

Prediction: Moreno via decision. Mentions value on Erceg if money continues to come in on Moreno.

"I will pick Brandon Moreno in this fight I will say that he either gets a late stoppage or more than likely a decision win and that's going to be my prediction for the fight."

Lucrative MMA

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Zane agrees with Connor that Erceg is being mishandled by the UFC, taking too many high-level fights in a row. He notes that Erceg's takedown attempt against Pantoja was a rookie mistake, and that he hasn't had time to develop. Zane sees Moreno as a tough test that Erceg isn't ready for, and picks Moreno to win.

"The thing you were saying about Loner Kavanaugh next last week is that fighters need lower stakes fights so that they can focus on the things that will make them the best version of themselves."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Amir Albazi

Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Brandon Moreno	0	132 of 317	41%	132 of 317	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
Amir Albazi	0	63 of 235	26%	63 of 236	1 of 4	25%	0	0	0:09

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Brandon Moreno	18 of 36	50%	18 of 36	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Amir Albazi	16 of 39	41%	16 of 39	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Brandon Moreno	29 of 67	43%	29 of 67	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Amir Albazi	6 of 33	18%	6 of 33	1 of 1	100%	0:02
3	Brandon Moreno	31 of 68	45%	31 of 68	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Amir Albazi	12 of 43	27%	12 of 43	0 of 1	0%	0:00
4	Brandon Moreno	22 of 70	31%	22 of 70	0 of 0	---	0:00
4	Amir Albazi	20 of 66	30%	20 of 66	0 of 0	---	0:00
5	Brandon Moreno	32 of 76	42%	32 of 76	0 of 1	0%	0:00
5	Amir Albazi	9 of 54	16%	9 of 55	0 of 2	0%	0:07

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Brandon Moreno	132 of 317	41%	113 of 284	12 of 22	7 of 11	128 of 309	4 of 8	0 of 0
Amir Albazi	63 of 235	26%	50 of 207	6 of 14	7 of 14	63 of 234	0 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Brandon Moreno	18 of 36	50%	16 of 33	0 of 1	2 of 2	18 of 36	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Amir Albazi	16 of 39	41%	12 of 30	1 of 3	3 of 6	16 of 39	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Brandon Moreno	29 of 67	43%	25 of 58	2 of 4	2 of 5	29 of 67	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Amir Albazi	6 of 33	18%	4 of 27	1 of 3	1 of 3	6 of 33	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Brandon Moreno	31 of 68	45%	23 of 59	5 of 6	3 of 3	28 of 64	3 of 4	0 of 0
3	Amir Albazi	12 of 43	27%	9 of 38	1 of 2	2 of 3	12 of 42	0 of 1	0 of 0
4	Brandon Moreno	22 of 70	31%	19 of 64	3 of 5	0 of 1	22 of 70	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Amir Albazi	20 of 66	30%	16 of 60	3 of 4	1 of 2	20 of 66	0 of 0	0 of 0
5	Brandon Moreno	32 of 76	42%	30 of 70	2 of 6	0 of 0	31 of 72	1 of 4	0 of 0
5	Amir Albazi	9 of 54	16%	9 of 52	0 of 2	0 of 0	9 of 54	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Amir Albazi

Angelo picks Amir Albazi to pull off the upset, citing Moreno's recent flat performances and loss of aura. He thinks Albazi can time takedowns and sneak out a win if Moreno looks flat-footed again. He wishes Albazi were more active with pressure and volume, like Brandon Royval. He notes the year layoff for Albazi and uncertainty about Moreno's form, so he will avoid betting on this fight.

"I love Brandon as a fighter I'm gonna pick Amir albazi here I think he can pull off the upset I just wish he was more active if Amir abazi was more active with tons of pressure tons of volume …"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno to win by decision. He questions Albazi's resume, noting his best win is a controversial decision over Kai Kara-France. Brady thinks Moreno's scrambling will neutralize Albazi's takedowns, and on the feet, Moreno is the better striker with better volume and cardio. He also cites Moreno's activity and experience in five-round fights.

"I'm going to take a Moreno here I'm going to take Mareno to win this fight by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Cody picks Brandon Moreno, citing his wrestling advantage over Albazi, who has only 33% takedown accuracy and 40% takedown defense. He notes Moreno's volume striking and five-round experience, but acknowledges the risk of Moreno being unmotivated after his partial retirement. He believes Moreno's reinvigorated version will win a decision.

"I want to take my shot on Brandon Moreno... he's got a wrestling advantage over Amir albazi... I'll take Brandon Moreno to hopefully come back and get a successful return."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Amir Albazi

Daniel Vreeland picks Amir Albazi to upset Brandon Moreno. He believes Moreno is at a crossroads after losing the belt twice and showing signs of decline, while Albazi is in his prime and has improved significantly since his neck surgery. Vreeland notes that Albazi is a plus-150 underdog and expects a close, competitive fight where he favors the younger, hungrier fighter. He also mentions that betting against Moreno at dog odds has historically worked for him.

"I'm GNA take Amir albazi to come out here and upset the great Brandon Morena"

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Amir Albazi

Lucrative James picks Amir Albazi to win by decision, citing Moreno's decline in recent fights and Albazi's control time advantage. He notes Moreno looked washed against Pantoja and Royval, while Albazi is undefeated in the UFC and has strong grappling. He believes Albazi's trajectory is higher and that Moreno's best days are behind him.

"I have to take am albazi to win here I don't think it's going to be an easy fight I think it's going to be a close fight"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Moreno looked un-Moreno-like in his last performance, but the layoff will do wonders. He has good defensive work against wrestlers, which will allow him to keep the fight standing where he has the striking and cardio advantage, battering Albazi in three or four of the five rounds and winning on the scorecards.

"I think we've seen good enough defensive work from Moreno in the past specifically against wrestlers and that will allow him to keep this fight in the standup realm where he has the five round experience striking advantage and not …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Paul agrees with Cody, pointing out that Albazi's takedown defense is a red flag after being taken down twice by Kai Kara-France. He emphasizes Moreno's superior competition and durability, and believes Moreno's volume and wrestling will lead to a decision win. He also notes that Moreno's chin has held up and he's fought the best in the division.

"The volume's never been there for him everything kind of points to Brandon Moreno as far as I'm concerned as well... if Moreno doesn't get knocked out in this fight he should win a volume based decision."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

The Guru picks Brandon Moreno over Amir Albazi, citing Albazi's long layoff and severe injuries (broken spine, neck surgery). He believes Moreno's experience and five-round cardio will be key, and he doubts Albazi can hold Moreno down or out-strike him. He predicts a close decision win for Moreno, 3-2 rounds.

decision win, close 3-2 rounds

"I'm gonna go with Brandon Moreno getting this one done three rounder... Brandon Moreno decision win close 32 on rounds"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Brandon Royval

Decision (split) (48–47, 46–49, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Brandon Royval	0	112 of 211	53%	119 of 219	3 of 5	60%	0	0	2:54
Brandon Moreno	0	145 of 510	28%	177 of 556	1 of 2	50%	0	0	0:35

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Brandon Royval	15 of 23	65%	15 of 23	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Brandon Moreno	12 of 43	27%	12 of 43	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Brandon Royval	22 of 45	48%	22 of 46	1 of 1	100%	0:37
2	Brandon Moreno	18 of 87	20%	22 of 91	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Brandon Royval	17 of 31	54%	17 of 31	2 of 3	66%	0:27
3	Brandon Moreno	25 of 79	31%	26 of 81	0 of 1	0%	0:00
4	Brandon Royval	29 of 58	50%	29 of 58	0 of 1	0%	0:00
4	Brandon Moreno	49 of 161	30%	60 of 179	1 of 1	100%	0:33
5	Brandon Royval	29 of 54	53%	36 of 61	0 of 0	---	1:50
5	Brandon Moreno	41 of 140	29%	57 of 162	0 of 0	---	0:02

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Brandon Royval	112 of 211	53%	48 of 127	37 of 51	27 of 33	103 of 191	7 of 17	2 of 3
Brandon Moreno	145 of 510	28%	97 of 437	38 of 54	10 of 19	142 of 504	3 of 6	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Brandon Royval	15 of 23	65%	6 of 12	5 of 5	4 of 6	14 of 21	1 of 2	0 of 0
1	Brandon Moreno	12 of 43	27%	6 of 31	5 of 8	1 of 4	11 of 42	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Brandon Royval	22 of 45	48%	13 of 34	5 of 5	4 of 6	20 of 43	1 of 1	1 of 1
2	Brandon Moreno	18 of 87	20%	7 of 66	8 of 16	3 of 5	18 of 87	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Brandon Royval	17 of 31	54%	7 of 20	4 of 5	6 of 6	15 of 27	1 of 2	1 of 2
3	Brandon Moreno	25 of 79	31%	13 of 61	8 of 12	4 of 6	24 of 76	1 of 3	0 of 0
4	Brandon Royval	29 of 58	50%	7 of 27	13 of 20	9 of 11	28 of 54	1 of 4	0 of 0
4	Brandon Moreno	49 of 161	30%	37 of 147	11 of 11	1 of 3	48 of 159	1 of 2	0 of 0
5	Brandon Royval	29 of 54	53%	15 of 34	10 of 16	4 of 4	26 of 46	3 of 8	0 of 0
5	Brandon Moreno	41 of 140	29%	34 of 132	6 of 7	1 of 1	41 of 140	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

likely fourth or fifth round finish

"Moreno is a very confident pick here he has already won this fight I think he wins this fight again"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Moreno wins by decision

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

"Mareno is the favorite is he this big of a favorite it's justifiable and I'm not going to play contrarian I'll take the favorite"

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

"I'll take the favorite yeah I mean the the Saving Grace as opposed four Ro Val is that he trains in Denver"

Bookie Beatdown

LOSS vs Alexandre Pantoja

Decision (split) (46–49, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Alexandre Pantoja	0	147 of 245	60%	167 of 265	2 of 4	50%	0	3	4:01
Brandon Moreno	1	129 of 274	47%	161 of 323	6 of 11	54%	0	0	8:26

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Alexandre Pantoja	0	22 of 32	68%	36 of 46	0 of 2	0%	0	1:37
1	Brandon Moreno	1	28 of 50	56%	42 of 75	0 of 3	0%	0	1:04
2	Alexandre Pantoja	0	41 of 77	53%	41 of 77	2 of 2	100%	0	1:23
2	Brandon Moreno	0	33 of 74	44%	36 of 77	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Alexandre Pantoja	0	26 of 47	55%	29 of 50	0 of 0	---	2	0:37
3	Brandon Moreno	0	23 of 48	47%	25 of 52	2 of 3	66%	0	2:01
4	Alexandre Pantoja	0	31 of 48	64%	34 of 51	0 of 0	---	1	0:24
4	Brandon Moreno	0	20 of 50	40%	23 of 56	3 of 4	75%	0	3:04
5	Alexandre Pantoja	0	27 of 41	65%	27 of 41	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
5	Brandon Moreno	0	25 of 52	48%	35 of 63	1 of 1	100%	0	2:17

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Alexandre Pantoja	147 of 245	60%	133 of 231	13 of 13	1 of 1	128 of 220	12 of 14	7 of 11
Brandon Moreno	129 of 274	47%	106 of 247	20 of 22	3 of 5	104 of 239	13 of 21	12 of 14

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Alexandre Pantoja	22 of 32	68%	20 of 30	2 of 2	0 of 0	20 of 29	2 of 3	0 of 0
1	Brandon Moreno	28 of 50	56%	23 of 43	4 of 5	1 of 2	19 of 37	4 of 8	5 of 5
2	Alexandre Pantoja	41 of 77	53%	37 of 73	4 of 4	0 of 0	38 of 72	1 of 1	2 of 4
2	Brandon Moreno	33 of 74	44%	27 of 67	6 of 7	0 of 0	31 of 72	1 of 1	1 of 1
3	Alexandre Pantoja	26 of 47	55%	24 of 45	1 of 1	1 of 1	22 of 41	0 of 1	4 of 5
3	Brandon Moreno	23 of 48	47%	14 of 39	8 of 8	1 of 1	15 of 38	2 of 2	6 of 8
4	Alexandre Pantoja	31 of 48	64%	27 of 44	4 of 4	0 of 0	23 of 39	7 of 7	1 of 2
4	Brandon Moreno	20 of 50	40%	18 of 47	1 of 1	1 of 2	15 of 41	5 of 9	0 of 0
5	Alexandre Pantoja	27 of 41	65%	25 of 39	2 of 2	0 of 0	25 of 39	2 of 2	0 of 0
5	Brandon Moreno	25 of 52	48%	24 of 51	1 of 1	0 of 0	24 of 51	1 of 1	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Angelo picks Moreno but disagrees with the 2-to-1 odds, thinking Pantoja has a clear striking advantage. He notes Moreno's pace, wrestling improvements, and takedowns as key factors. Pantoja is durable and a good grappler, but has been beaten by wrestlers. He expects a dogfight and advises against parlaying Moreno.

Would not parlay Moreno

"I do think Brandon Moreno is going to win I do not agree with these two to one odds I think pantosha is a great Striker who I think is going to have the clear advantage on the feet"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)

Alexandre Pantoja

Big Brady picks Alexandre Pantoja to win a close decision. He notes that Pantoja is 2-0 against Moreno, but those fights were years ago. He believes Pantoja is the better striker with more power and better grappling, and he expects Pantoja to win the early rounds. However, he is concerned about Pantoja's cardio in a five-round fight, as Moreno has proven he can go 25 minutes. He thinks Pantoja wins rounds 1-3 and loses 4-5, making it a split decision. He says the line makes no sense and that Pantoja is live.

split decision

"give me pantosia to win this fight I'll say pantosia wins this fight by us probably probably a split decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Alexandre Pantoja

Cody picks Pantoja as an underdog, noting he has beaten Moreno twice before. He believes Pantoja's superior ground game and power shots can be effective early, while Moreno is hittable and gets rocked. He thinks Pantoja's takedown defense is poor but his submission threat is real. He prefers a live bet on Moreno later if he survives early rounds.

Pantoja by submission (+425 to +530), fight goes over 3.5 rounds, over 4.5 rounds

"I'll pick pantosia plus 165 for the purposes of the show but yeah the sub prop uh add anything over plus 400 I think is uh is where it's not anymore"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Connor picks Moreno but with hesitation, noting that Pantoja has won twice before and is a dangerous mauler. He acknowledges Moreno's development, especially his jab, but worries about Moreno's tendency to get into scrappy fights. Connor thinks Moreno's best path is to use his reach and avoid grappling exchanges, but he's not fully confident given Pantoja's proven ability.

"I love Pantoja, man. I'm very glad he's finally getting a shot. I don't know that he's gonna win, but..."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Alexandre Pantoja

Daniel Levi picks Pantoja, primarily because he values the plus-170 odds as a betting opportunity against any flyweight. He acknowledges that Moreno has improved his composure and had big moments in recent fights, but believes Pantoja's jiu-jitsu is the nastiest in the division and that he has never been finished. Levi notes that Pantoja has beaten Moreno twice before (submission and 30-26 decision), though those fights were years ago. He expresses concern about Pantoja's potential to fade in championship rounds due to his aggressive style, but is willing to take that risk at the underdog price.

Bet at +170, first bet of the night

"I took pantosia plus 170. I would literally bet pantosia at plus 170 against any flyweight on planet Earth period."

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)

Alexandre Pantoja

James picks Pantoja at plus money, disagreeing with Moreno being a -200 favorite. He argues that skill-for-skill Pantoja is the favorite, and the perceived cardio disadvantage is overblown. He notes Pantoja has beaten Moreno twice, including a submission, and has pushed a hard pace in striking fights like against Figueiredo. He thinks the line is too wide and Pantoja has value.

Pantoja at +170; Pantoja by submission (historical)

"I like pentosa at plus 170 plus 180 I think he's about plus 180 at the moment"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Moreno has improved boxing, footwork, and cardio, which will be key in a five-round fight. Pantoja is dangerous early with power and BJJ, but fades late. Moreno will survive the early onslaught and overwhelm Pantoja in deep waters, likely getting a finish. Fight doesn't go to decision is the best prop.

fight doesn't go to decision

"fight doesn't go to the decision is likely where my uh you know where my action will take place but my prediction for this matchup is going to be Moreno and Moreno inside the distance."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Paul leans toward Moreno but is not confident at -190. He notes Moreno's experience in five-round fights and better cardio, while Pantoja has never gone five rounds. He thinks Moreno's volume and leg kicks will pay off in later rounds. He suggests waiting to bet Moreno live after the first round or two for a better price.

Moreno by decision, over 3.5 rounds, over 4.5 rounds

"I think it's more of a over three and a half over four and a half probably fight goes the distance type of situation"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Alexandre Pantoja

The MMA Guru picks Alexandre Pantoja to win by submission (rear-naked choke) late in the first round. He believes Pantoja's forward pressure and grappling will force Moreno to be hesitant and defensive. He notes that Moreno builds into fights and may be afraid of Pantoja's submission threat. He cites Pantoja's striking improvements and ability to take the back.

wins by submission (rear-naked choke) late in the first round

"I'm gonna go late first round reunaked choke for alejandre Pantoja"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Zane picks Moreno, highlighting his improved jab and patience compared to their previous fights. He believes Moreno can use his reach and stick-and-move strategy to break Pantoja down, exploiting Pantoja's tendency to surge forward in straight lines. Zane is concerned about Moreno's occasional tendency to fight down to his opponent but thinks his technical evolution gives him the edge.

"I think the way to deal with Pantoja here is to be very clinical. Stick and move, that's the name of the game."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Deiveson Figueiredo

TKO (doctor stoppage) R3 5:00 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Brandon Moreno	0	19 of 43	44%	24 of 48	1 of 2	50%	2	0	0:35
Deiveson Figueiredo	0	48 of 74	64%	85 of 111	3 of 6	50%	0	0	6:52

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Brandon Moreno	5 of 11	45%	5 of 11	0 of 1	0%	1	0:00
1	Deiveson Figueiredo	17 of 24	70%	18 of 25	2 of 3	66%	0	1:13
2	Brandon Moreno	10 of 20	50%	14 of 24	1 of 1	100%	1	0:35
2	Deiveson Figueiredo	17 of 25	68%	19 of 27	1 of 3	33%	0	2:10
3	Brandon Moreno	4 of 12	33%	5 of 13	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Deiveson Figueiredo	14 of 25	56%	48 of 59	0 of 0	---	0	3:29

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Brandon Moreno	19 of 43	44%	8 of 30	8 of 9	3 of 4	15 of 35	0 of 0	4 of 8
Deiveson Figueiredo	48 of 74	64%	37 of 61	7 of 9	4 of 4	34 of 52	3 of 6	11 of 16

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Brandon Moreno	5 of 11	45%	1 of 7	3 of 3	1 of 1	5 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Deiveson Figueiredo	17 of 24	70%	13 of 20	2 of 2	2 of 2	15 of 22	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Brandon Moreno	10 of 20	50%	6 of 15	2 of 3	2 of 2	7 of 15	0 of 0	3 of 5
2	Deiveson Figueiredo	17 of 25	68%	13 of 20	3 of 4	1 of 1	15 of 21	0 of 2	2 of 2
3	Brandon Moreno	4 of 12	33%	1 of 8	3 of 3	0 of 1	3 of 9	0 of 0	1 of 3
3	Deiveson Figueiredo	14 of 25	56%	11 of 21	2 of 3	1 of 1	4 of 9	1 of 2	9 of 14

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Big Brady switches to Moreno after picking Figueiredo in the previous three fights. He cites Figueiredo's age (35), brutal weight cuts, and not training at Fight Ready as concerns. Moreno is younger, has better cardio, and has never been finished. He notes Moreno was winning minutes in the third fight before Figueiredo's knockdowns. He needs to see Figueiredo's weigh-in to decide on betting, but leans Moreno by decision.

decision

"I think I'm gonna switch it around here I'm gonna go Moreno I'm gonna take Moreno to win I'm gonna say by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Cody is confident in Brandon Moreno, citing Moreno's better wrestling, cardio, and ability to mix striking and grappling. He notes Figueiredo is older, has a tough weight cut, moved away from a great training camp, and has a year-long layoff. He believes Moreno's pace and pressure will be too much, and Figueiredo's best chance is counter-punching early. He also mentions Moreno's resilience and Mexican grit.

mentions weigh-ins as key; Figueiredo's weight cut issues

"I just feel like Moreno's gonna just again keep bringing the pace keep bringing the pressure keep bringing the grind"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Deiveson Figueiredo

Connor picks Figueiredo, calling it a 'sadness hedge'—expecting the worst so it doesn't crush him. He thinks Figueiredo will find ways to sneak out rounds in a five-round fight, as he has done before. Connor notes Figueiredo's ability to land hard low kicks and his natural counter-punching, but acknowledges Moreno's dominance in the second fight and the uncertainty.

Connor mentions Figueiredo's odds at -102 but does not place a bet.

"I'm gonna take Figueiredo just because I think this will go five rounds and I think that Figueiredo finds ways to sneak out more rounds."

MMA Vivisection

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Paul leans towards Brandon Moreno but is cautious, noting he made a rule to bet the underdog in this series. He is very curious about Figueiredo's weight cut and age (35), and thinks speed and cardio are key at flyweight. He says he will wait for weigh-ins before betting, but ever so slightly leans Moreno. He acknowledges Figueiredo's power and toughness but thinks Moreno is the better fighter at this point.

waiting for weigh-ins before betting; mentions Figueiredo's weight cut issues

"I'll ever so slightly lean towards you with Brandon Moreno here eyes all eyes before I actually put a wager on this fight will be on the uh the weigh-ins"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

The Guru picks Moreno for the quadrilogy, noting he won most of the minutes in the trilogy. Moreno has better striking, gas tank, and scrambles, while Figueiredo relies on explosive moments. Figueiredo is 35 with a tough weight cut and has been inactive for a year, while Moreno is younger and more active. The Guru predicts a clear decision win for Moreno, 49-46.

decision

"I'm going with Brandon Moreno in the quadrilogy I'm siding with him again ... Moreno seems like he is the better Striker out of the two of them he's got the better gas tank"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Zane picks Moreno, believing he looked like the better fighter in the third fight and lost mainly due to overconfidence. He thinks Moreno's adjustments are straightforward: stay busier with the jab, use footwork to avoid low kicks, and bring back his wrestling. Zane notes Figueiredo's defensive issues and psychological decline, and that Moreno's youth and resilience give him an edge.

Moreno opened at -118, went to +100, now -119; Figueiredo opened at +100, now -102. Zane mentions the odds are essentially even.

"I'm sticking with Moreno. I just think there's a lot of room for Moreno to cover a lot of ground with relatively small adjustments."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Kai Kara-France

TKO (body kick and punches) R3 4:34 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Brandon Moreno	1	58 of 151	38%	59 of 153	0 of 3	0%	0	0	0:45
Kai Kara-France	0	53 of 110	48%	66 of 123	1 of 2	50%	0	0	0:24

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Brandon Moreno	0	7 of 26	26%	7 of 26	0 of 1	0%	0:13
1	Kai Kara-France	0	10 of 23	43%	10 of 23	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Brandon Moreno	0	16 of 49	32%	16 of 49	0 of 2	0%	0:26
2	Kai Kara-France	0	15 of 36	41%	23 of 44	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Brandon Moreno	1	35 of 76	46%	36 of 78	0 of 0	---	0:06
3	Kai Kara-France	0	28 of 51	54%	33 of 56	1 of 2	50%	0:24

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Brandon Moreno	58 of 151	38%	43 of 133	12 of 15	3 of 3	47 of 132	0 of 3	11 of 16
Kai Kara-France	53 of 110	48%	24 of 71	3 of 4	26 of 35	48 of 104	0 of 0	5 of 6

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Brandon Moreno	7 of 26	26%	5 of 24	2 of 2	0 of 0	7 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Kai Kara-France	10 of 23	43%	3 of 11	1 of 2	6 of 10	10 of 23	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Brandon Moreno	16 of 49	32%	10 of 40	4 of 7	2 of 2	16 of 46	0 of 3	0 of 0
2	Kai Kara-France	15 of 36	41%	6 of 23	0 of 0	9 of 13	15 of 36	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Brandon Moreno	35 of 76	46%	28 of 69	6 of 6	1 of 1	24 of 60	0 of 0	11 of 16
3	Kai Kara-France	28 of 51	54%	15 of 37	2 of 2	11 of 12	23 of 45	0 of 0	5 of 6

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Kai Kara-France

Big Brady picks Kai Kara-France to win by decision as a dog. He thinks the line is too wide and favors Kara-France's striking volume, accuracy, and takedown defense. He notes Moreno has been dropped before and Kara-France has power. He expects a close fight that could go either way but leans toward the underdog.

"i'm going to take the dog here in kai kar france to edge out a very close and competitive decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Cody picks Moreno, citing his durability, fantastic cardio, and proven five-round ability. He notes that Kai Kara-France relies on power and early success, but Moreno can take his best shots and keep coming. He expects Moreno's volume, wrestling, and championship-round experience to be key advantages. He also mentions that Moreno has a grappling advantage and that Kai's takedown defense is solid but Moreno can mix in wrestling. He thinks the fight will be competitive early but Moreno will take over.

"i think it's moreno's ability to keep coming forward to take his best shots and to roll the volume the output the ability to maybe mix in some wrestling if need be... that would have to be my logical pick"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Daniel leans Moreno because he believes Moreno's Mexican heart and toughness will carry him down the stretch, especially in deep waters. He notes that Moreno already beat Kara-France once via decision and that Kara-France has historically faded when fights get tough. He acknowledges Kara-France's improvements, especially his takedown defense against Askar Askarov, and his one-punch knockout power. However, he questions Moreno's motivation after losing the belt and changing camps. He sees value on Kara-France at +170 but ultimately picks Moreno to become interim champion.

Mentions that Kara-France at +170 has value; says he leans Moreno but wouldn't count out Kara-France

"I still do lean Moreno here to win this fight because I've seen them fight before and I didn't think it was so close."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)

Brandon Moreno

Preet made Moreno his biggest play of the night with five units at -187, believing Moreno is on another level. He argues the first fight was not close after round one, with Moreno beating Kara-France to the punch and flexing on him. He expects Moreno to edge a five-round kickboxing match, with potential grappling success. He dismisses Kara-France's takedown defense improvements as irrelevant.

"i went as deep as making moreno my biggest play of the night here i got five units on him at -187"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Paul also picks Moreno, agreeing that it's a bad matchup for Kai Kara-France. He notes that Kai relies on power and early success, but Moreno is incredibly durable with fantastic cardio. He thinks Moreno has an advantage on the mat and that Kai's takedown defense is solid but Moreno can get it there. He mentions that the -210 price is not great but the fight is likely to be competitive and go five rounds. He suggests live betting after the first round if Kai has early success.

"i think it's a bad matchup for kai kara france who relies a lot on his power... brandon moreno incredibly durable fantastic cardio i mean five round fighter proven multiple multiple times"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)

Brandon Moreno

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Moreno by 48-47 decision. He expects Kara-France to win the first two rounds with big shots and leg kicks, but Moreno will take over in rounds three through five with his jab, combinations, and pressure. Moreno's durability and volume will be key as Kara-France fades.

48-47 decision

"4847 brandon moreno i think he's going to win the last three rounds"

THE MMA GURU

View all 20 fights

Expert Picks (5)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

likely fourth or fifth round finish

"Moreno is a very confident pick here he has already won this fight I think he wins this fight again"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

Moreno wins by decision

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

"Mareno is the favorite is he this big of a favorite it's justifiable and I'm not going to play contrarian I'll take the favorite"

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Brandon Moreno

"I'll take the favorite yeah I mean the the Saving Grace as opposed four Ro Val is that he trains in Denver"

Bookie Beatdown

Brandon Royval

Brandon Moreno

Career Averages - Brandon Royval

Career Averages - Brandon Moreno

Brandon Royval

Brandon Moreno

Brandon Royval - Fight History

Totals

Per Round

Significant Strikes

Significant Strikes Per Round

Play-by-Play

Totals

Per Round

Significant Strikes

Significant Strikes Per Round

Play-by-Play

Totals

Per Round

Significant Strikes

Significant Strikes Per Round

Play-by-Play

Totals

Per Round

Significant Strikes

Significant Strikes Per Round

Totals

Per Round

Significant Strikes

Significant Strikes Per Round

Totals

Per Round

Significant Strikes

Significant Strikes Per Round

Totals

Per Round

Significant Strikes

Significant Strikes Per Round

Play-by-Play

Brandon Moreno - Fight History

Totals

Per Round

Significant Strikes

Significant Strikes Per Round

Totals

Per Round

Significant Strikes

Significant Strikes Per Round

Play-by-Play

Totals

Per Round

Significant Strikes

Significant Strikes Per Round

Play-by-Play

Totals

Per Round

Significant Strikes

Significant Strikes Per Round

Totals

Per Round

Significant Strikes

Significant Strikes Per Round

Totals

Per Round

Significant Strikes

Significant Strikes Per Round

Totals

Per Round

Significant Strikes

Significant Strikes Per Round

Totals

Per Round

Significant Strikes

Significant Strikes Per Round

Expert Picks (5)