Career Averages - Manuel Torres
Career Averages - Chris Duncan
Manuel Torres
Chris Duncan
Manuel Torres - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiziev (-125); Torres (+105)
Round 1
The main event kicks off, with Marc Goddard drawing the final referee assignment of the evening. They touch gloves and go to work immediately. Fiziev reaches out with a hard body kick. Torres answers with one of his own. Torres throws a pair of blistering punches that come up badly short. Fiziev meets Torres’ next approach with a lovely reactive takedown, plowing the Mexican to his seat at the base of the fence. He works to pull Torres’ hips away from the fence and complete the takedown, but Torres powers back to his feet. Fiziev lands a low blow and they take a moment to let Torres recover. As soon as they reengage, the strikers clatter low kicks off of each other’s calves. Torres connects with a punch that bowls Fiziev over, off-balance more than hurt, and he springs back up. Half of the round is down and this has been a frenetic fight so far. They take a breath and go back to business. Fiziev is working southpaw, reaching for Torres’ lead hand, then switches to orthodox. Torres’s left calf is already badly reddened, but he is starting to find the mark with his jab. Fiziev catches Torres coming in and uses a nifty trip to take him completely off his feet. Torres springs back up and misses just short with a sweeping right hand, then lands a very hard jab right before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 2
They touch gloves. Fiziev comes out and throws a
spinning wheel kick that blasts Torres in the side of the head
. He goes down in a heap and tries to scramble back to his feet, but Fiziev crushes him with a stream of punches, including two coffin nails at the base of the cage that spur Goddard into action. Incredible finish for Rafael Fiziev, and the National Gymnastics Arena explodes!
The Official Result
Rafael Fiziev def. Manuel Torres R2 0:15 via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches)
AJ picks Torres by finish, citing his power, pressure, and underrated grappling. He thinks Fiziev has shown signs of slowing down and that Torres's jiu-jitsu is superior. He expects Torres to force a stoppage, possibly by submission or TKO.
AJ picks Torres to win by finish, citing his pressure, hand speed, and power. He thinks Fiziev is on a decline, too hittable, and that Torres will close the distance and land big shots. AJ expects a first-round knockout or a club-and-sub, noting Torres' submission threat.
AJ DeVito is extremely confident in Manuel Torres to upset Rafael Fiziev, calling it his lock of the week. He believes Torres is a stylistic nightmare for Fiziev due to his quick gap-closing and heavy hands, and questions Fiziev's durability after recent knockout losses. He notes Torres' submission threat as a secondary option but expects a KO. He also discusses various prop bets including Torres by finish, KO, submission, and round props, but ultimately prefers the moneyline at plus money.
AJ picks Torres by knockout, citing his devastating power and blitzing style. Fiziev is coming off a KO loss and may struggle with Torres' pressure. Torres' submission threat is also live. The matchup favors Torres' close-range aggression over Fiziev's kickboxing.
Angelo picks Fiziev after flipping from Torres, citing that Fiziev's recent losses are to elite fighters (Gamrot, Ruffy) and that he is the better striker. He notes Fiziev's chin is questionable but believes he can fight smart at home and outpoint Torres.
Angelo initially doubted Fiziev due to his fading chin, but after seeing Justin Gaethje's performance, he reversed his pick. He believes Fiziev is the better striker and wrestler, and that Torres' win over Grant Dawson is not comparable to Fiziev's losses to Gaethje and Ruffy. He hopes Fiziev's chin holds up and notes that Fiziev has flipped to a slight favorite at -115.
Angelo is fine with Fiziev winning and picked him, but acknowledges Manuel Torres as a solid underdog with random power and slick grappling. He notes Fiziev's losses are to top fighters like Gaethje and Ruffy, and a broken leg against Gamrot, while Torres may not be ready for that level.
Big Brady picks Manuel Torres to win by first-round knockout. He notes Torres is a 'kill or be killed' fighter with 19 first-round finishes in 20 fights, possessing massive power. Fiziev is the more technical striker but has taken damage, has a questionable chin after being knocked out by Ruffy, and may be on the decline. Brady thinks Torres catches him early, though he acknowledges Fiziev could win if he survives the first round.
Cody picks Fiziev, citing his body of work and home-field advantage in Azerbaijan. He acknowledges Torres's power and danger in the first round but believes Fiziev's experience and skill edge will prevail if he survives the early onslaught. He notes the fight is low on his betting priority list.
Daniel Levi leans towards Fiziev because he has proven more at the upper echelon, has more ways to win including mixing in takedowns, and his power has translated deep into fights (e.g., fifth-round KO of RDA). He acknowledges Torres's dangerous first-round power and size but questions his durability past round one and his level of competition. Levi is low-key rooting for Torres but wants to see how he handles an extended war.
Jacob picks Torres by KO, citing his tape study showing Fiziev is susceptible to a long 1-2 combination. He thinks Torres' blitzing style and round 1 aggression will overwhelm Fiziev, who has been dropped before. He expects an early finish.
Lucrative James picks Fiziev because he believes Fiziev is a much higher level striker than Torres, with better patience, volume, and technical kicking. He notes that Fiziev has fought and beaten better competition, and that Torres has not been outside round one since 2018, giving Fiziev a cardio and experience advantage in later rounds. He also points to the common opponent Ignacio Bahamondes, who knocked out Torres but was clearly outpointed by Fiziev. However, he acknowledges Torres has more power and is on an upward trajectory while Fiziev has wear and tear.
Fiziev's hard-nosed Muay Thai and speed will allow him to counter Torres' aggression. Torres makes mistakes and trusts his power too much. Fiziev can eat a shot and land his own counters, hurting Torres and eventually putting him away by knockout.
The host believes Fiziev's hard-nosed Muay Thai striking and experience will allow him to find openings and counter Torres, leading to a big knockout win for Fiziev in front of his home country.
Paul picks Fiziev but is hesitant, noting Fiziev's age and wear from a long career with many fights. He worries about Fiziev's durability after the Ruffy KO and thinks his best days are behind him. However, he values Fiziev's back class and experience over Torres's unknown durability and cardio, and expects Fiziev to win a competitive fight.
The Guru picks Fiziev via third or fourth-round TKO, citing his superior striking, defense, and experience. He believes Fiziev's leg kicks and body work will slow Torres, who lacks experience in longer fights. He notes Torres's power but expects Fiziev's patience and technical edge to prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 8 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manuel Torres | 1 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 8 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manuel Torres | 1 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 8 of 21 | 38% | 4 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manuel Torres | 9 of 17 | 52% | 5 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 8 of 21 | 38% | 4 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manuel Torres | 9 of 17 | 52% | 5 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-218), Torres (+180)
Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Torres takes the center of the cage. Dawson flocks out a high kick. Another head kick slams off of Torres’ guard. Dawson’s first shot is denied by Torres, who is patient early. Torres steps in with a left, and Dawson returns fire with an overhand right. Dawson remains active with his kicking game, as he lands to his foe’s body. Torres kicks the body in return. A straight left ot the body connects for Torres. Torres stuffs anotehr takedown. Dawson lands a front kick down the middle. “El Loco” is unfazed, and he finds his opening moments later. After Dawson whiffs on an overhand,
Torres goes on the attack, dropping his American adversary with a rapid-fire combination. Dawson collapses to the canvas and covers up. Torres wastes little time sealing his victory, as he unloads with a barrage of approximately five unanswered hammerfists to force the stoppage.
That’s now five finishes in five UFC victories — and 16 first-round stoppages overall — for the Mexican standout.
The Official Result
Manuel Torres def. Grant Dawson via TKO (Punches) R1 2:25
Angelo picks Grant Dawson despite calling him the most boring fighter on the roster. He acknowledges Dawson's excellent wrestling and grappling, and expects him to get takedowns and control the fight. He notes that Manuel Torres is dangerous but believes Dawson's game plan will prevail. Angelo expresses disdain for the entertainment value but respects Dawson's skills.
Big Brady picks Grant Dawson, expecting him to weather Torres' early storm and take the fight to the mat. He notes Dawson's improved cardio and ground and pound at American Top Team, and predicts a second-round TKO via ground and pound.
Cody picks Dawson but is hesitant due to Torres' knockout power. He believes Dawson's wrestling and control will neutralize Torres, as Torres has not shown good takedown defense. He notes that Dawson trains at American Top Team and will likely get early takedowns. He acknowledges the risk of getting knocked out but trusts Dawson's game plan.
Connor picks Grant Dawson by smothering wrestling, noting that Dawson has won 23 of 25 fights and is a proven grinder. He acknowledges that Dawson has never beaten a real hitter and has faded in fights where he didn't crush his opponent early, but still sees Dawson's path to victory through control.
Daniel picks Dawson, believing his relentless grappling will drown Torres if he survives the first round. He notes Torres has never been past the first round and has knockout power, but Dawson's improved striking and top control should prevail in an extended fight. He expects a submission or ground-and-pound TKO.
Lucrative James highlights Grant Dawson's elite wrestling and back-taking ability. He notes that Manuel Torres is a fast starter who fades if he doesn't finish early, and that Dawson's grappling will neutralize Torres' power. He also mentions that Dawson's teammate Chris Duncan has fought Torres before, providing valuable intel. He predicts Dawson wins inside the distance via grappling.
The host views this as a dangerous early fight for Dawson but believes if he can secure takedowns and wear Torres down, his elite lightweight grappling will shine. He expects Dawson to find a finish in the second or third round.
Paul is confident in Dawson, citing his wrestling and control time. He notes that Dawson has dominated grapplers and that Torres' wins are all first-round finishes, which becomes less likely if Dawson gets takedowns. He believes Dawson will smother Torres and win by decision or submission.
The Guru picks Grant Dawson over Manuel Torres, trusting Dawson's elite grappling to survive Torres' early power. He notes Torres has never left the first round and has been submitted before. The Guru predicts a late second or third round submission or ground-and-pound finish.
Zane picks Manuel Torres as a fun upset, citing that Torres is a big, strong athlete with quick reactions who may be hard to hold down. He notes that Dawson has been taken down quickly by Chris Duncan and that Torres has submission threats. Zane believes Torres could knock Dawson out if he can't control him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres | 1 | 23 of 25 | 92% | 23 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Torres | 1 | 23 of 25 | 92% | 23 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Drew Dober | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres | 23 of 25 | 92% | 21 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 16 |
| Drew Dober | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Torres | 23 of 25 | 92% | 21 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 16 |
| Drew Dober | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Torres (-125), Dober (+105)
Round 1
The organization knew exactly what it was doing when it matched these two flamethrowers together. In the one corner stands a Mexican in Torres (15-3, 3-1 UFC) who proudly celebrates a 93% finish rate with an equal number of knockouts to subs. In the other will be Dober (27-14, 1 NC; 13-10, 1 NC UFC), who just so happens to share the UFC lightweight knockout record with Dustin Poirier. Fists and feet are sure to fly in a frenzy, but before they do, referee Mike Beltran clocks them in. A quick clap of hands leads to Dober claiming the center of the cage fishing out a jab. Torres pitches back a push kick, and he pump-fakes other to try to keep Dober from getting to him. Torres lines up a one-two down the pipe, and he chain a body kick into it. Dober comes up short on his own kick to the ribs, and he ducks out of the way of a pair of big punches aimed at him. Torres gets off a front kick and a head kick—the latter is blocked—before Dober swings for the bleachers and largely misses the mark. The Mexican pierces the jab, and
a fierce right hand that follows sends Dober collapsing to his knees. On instinct alone, Dober leans forward to clutch Torres’ ankle, and Torres rains down a hellacious stream of hammerfists that appear to separate Dober from his senses and wake him back up. After well over a dozen hammerfists smash into the side of Dober’s dome, Beltran decides to step in and wave the contest off.
Dober stands up, confused, and he asks the cage officials and medical professionals what happened and why the fight was stopped. All the while, Dober is barely able to stand up without assistance, and he does not like what happened but comes to terms with it after seeing the replay. Some may call it an early stoppage, but others saw upwards of 15 unanswered, unblocked swinging hammerfists colliding with Dober’s head and scrambling his circuits completely.
The Official Result
Manuel Torres def. Drew Dober R1 1:45 via TKO (Punches)
James picks Drew Dober to win, arguing that Torres has never won outside round one except for a split decision where he gassed, and that elevation will worsen his cardio. He highlights Dober's elite chin, cardio, and forward pressure, noting Dober's last fight against Jean Silva showed his durability. James believes Dober will survive Torres' early onslaught and then dominate in rounds two and three, likely finishing Torres. He also mentions a potential submission angle for Torres but favors Dober's path to victory.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Manuel Torres | 2 | 31 of 58 | 53% | 36 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Manuel Torres | 2 | 31 of 58 | 53% | 36 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 20 of 43 | 46% | 9 of 30 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 12 of 35 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Manuel Torres | 31 of 58 | 53% | 25 of 46 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 8 | 11 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 29 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 20 of 43 | 46% | 9 of 30 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 12 of 35 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Manuel Torres | 31 of 58 | 53% | 25 of 46 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 8 | 11 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 29 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Torres (-118), Bahamondes (-102)
Round 1
Keeping things pushing, one of many combatants out of Entram Gym steps into the cage next, as Torres (15-2, 3-0 UFC) wants to keep his 93% finish rate high as can be at the expense of kick-happy Bahamondes (15-5, 4-2 UFC). While Torres sports an equal distribution of knockouts to submissions, the Valle Flow Striking ace Bahamondes vastly prefers to get things done on the feet. The bantamweight clash will be officiated by referee Marc Goddard, with the victor making a strong push to reach the outskirts of the top 15. They touch gloves. Torres reaches out with a low kick that comes up short, and Bahamondes does the exact same. Bahamondes reaches with a long pair of punches, and his leg kick also misses. Torres lands with a thudding kick, and he hits air as a right hand buzzes past the Chilean. Bahamondes reaches out with a jab at the end of a front kick, and Torres kicks him in the ribs and falls over. Torres jumps back up immediately and is no worse for wear, still out of range from most of Bahamondes’ kicks. Torres splits the guard with a strong left hand, and he knocks Bahamondes’ head around with three additional punches before Bahamondes can sprint away. Torres gets his hands on his opponent after Bahamondes tries a jump knee, rapping the body with short but mean right hands as well as a few knees. Torres breaks out of the clinch he set up, parrying a right hand and checking a calf kick. They catch one another in an exchange, but Torres appears to hit harder with his fists. Bahamondes hooks a kick around his head and rocks Torres, but Torres shakes it off and keeps his guard up to block a second head kick. Bahamondes hammers the midsection with his shin, and he parries a combination to rifle off a right hand that sends Torres crashing to the mat. Bahamondes jumps on top in hopes of finishing the job, but his hammerfists and punches do not seal the deal as Goddard asks for Torres to keep moving. Torres does just that, and he recovers enough to fight back to his feet. Torres charges in recklessly, knees still wobbled, and he lets Bahamondes have it with a short combination. Bahamondes just misses with a head kick, and
he snipes the charging Torres with another step-back right hand that short-circuits Torres. The Mexican awkwardly hits the mat with his leg bent back, and Bahamondes does not let him off the hook this time. Crouched down above Torres, Bahamondes releases a barrage of standing-to-ground punches as Torres can do nothing but shell up to cover his head.
Goddard sees that before long, Torres is no longer defending himself, and he steps in. Torres is quick to recover and embrace his victorious opponent, and Bahamondes has unquestionably punched his ticket to bigger fights going forward.
The Official Result
Ignacio Bahamondes def. Manuel Torres R1 4:02 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo leans Ignacio Bahamondes for three reasons: his length advantage, higher level experience, and the fact that Manuel Torres pulled guard in his last fight, which won't work against Bahamondes. He notes Bahamondes has good footwork and head movement, solid takedown defense, and came out aggressive in his last fight. However, he acknowledges Torres is dangerous and the fight could end early. He suggests a round under or 'fight doesn't go the distance' prop.
Big Brady flipped from initially leaning Torres to picking Bahamondes as a dog. He notes Torres is a beast in the first round (14 of 15 wins in round 1) but has never been past round 1.5. Bahamondes has shown ability to go into later rounds and weather storms. He predicts Bahamondes will survive an early onslaught and break Torres in the second round via knockout.
Daniel picks Ignacio Bahamondes, believing that if he survives the early storm, he will pick Torres apart with calf kicks, jabs, and spins. He notes Bahamondes' training with Khabib and Islam for grappling, and doubts Torres can maintain his high pace. He predicts a knockout for Bahamondes.
The transcript does not discuss this fight.
Fading the hype on Torres and going with the more experienced and technically better fighter in Bahamondes. He will touch up Torres, lean on his durability early, and then utilize superior technical striking to finish Torres in the second or third round.
The MMA Guru picks Manuel Torres. He describes Torres as a physical freak with incredible strength, comparing him to a lightweight version of Dricus du Plessis. He notes Bahamondes has had mediocre performances against similar competition, including a loss to Ludovic Klein where he was controlled on the ground. He also points out that Bahamondes was wobbled by a shorter fighter with a shorter reach, and Torres has more power and range.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Chris Duncan | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Torres | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Chris Duncan | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Torres | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Torres (-162), Duncan (+136)
Round 1
To kick off the main card, the promotion booked a lightweight affair with fighters that seem allergic to the final bell. The ultra-aggressive Torres (14-2, 2-0 UFC) has only gone the distance once in 16 pro outings, while Scotland’s Duncan (11-1, 2-0 UFC) has needed the involve the judges on three occasions thus far in his tenure. While the scorecards may not be required, referee Mike Beltran is ready to step in at a moment’s notice. A sign of respect in the form of a clap of hands starts things off, and Torres moves right to the middle of the cage. When Torres throws a punch, Duncan counters with a clean right hand that nearly knocks the Mexican off his feet. Torres partially recovers, and Duncan charges at him. Torres tosses Duncan to the side and whips a high kick at him, and Duncan wears it on the chin and starts going after a takedown. As the two jockey for position, they result in a scramble, and Duncan takes Torres down. Torres fights his way around and takes the back, and he looks for chokes but cannot find one. As Torres wrenches Duncan to the canvas, this time he has the advantageous position to keep shifting and secure the back take to get his hooks in.
Torres immediately grips a rear-naked choke on top of the chin, and he calmly slides it under the chin and puts Duncan in grave danger. “The Problem” tries to solve his problem by hand-fighting and hoping to break the choke grasp, but there is nothing he can do as they are fresh and dry. Duncan considers briefly going out on his shield, but he ultimately taps out instead.
The lightweight from Mexico kicks his finish rate up a notch while landing an equal number of submission to knockouts in his career. A whole 14 of his 15 pro wins for "El Loco" have come in the first round.
The Official Result
Manuel Torres def. Chris Duncan R1 1:46 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Torres as the more dangerous fighter, citing his length and finishing ability. He acknowledges Duncan's durability and toughness but believes Torres will eventually break him. He mentions that over 1.5 rounds might be solid but Torres is the pick.
Big Brady picks Manuel Torres to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Torres has 15 finishes in 16 fights, all in the first round, and is a chaotic striker. He criticizes Chris Duncan's 49% striking defense and notes that Duncan has been knocked down and knocked out before. Brady believes Torres will draw Duncan into a brawl and that Torres has more power and durability. He expects the fight to end in the first round.
Cody picks Duncan as an underdog, noting that Torres is a first-round finisher with suspect cardio and grappling. He believes Duncan can take Torres down, make him carry weight, and grind him out. He mentions Duncan's improved wrestling and game plan against Ashmus. He acknowledges the risk of getting melted early but likes the plus price.
The host acknowledges Torres's power and early finishes but notes he overextends and can be countered. He believes Duncan is a more educated striker with a well-rounded game. If Duncan can survive the early onslaught, he can grind Torres against the cage and on the mat, finding a finish in the second or third round as Torres slows down.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Duncan. He notes Torres is an offensive dynamo but has cardio issues and poor grappling defense. Duncan's takedowns and pressure could be key. He mentions Duncan's camp at American Top Team and his improved fight IQ. He thinks Duncan can avoid a gunfight and grind out a win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres | 1 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Nikolas Motta | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Torres | 1 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Nikolas Motta | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres | 13 of 17 | 76% | 3 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Nikolas Motta | 7 of 14 | 50% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Torres | 13 of 17 | 76% | 3 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Nikolas Motta | 7 of 14 | 50% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Torres (-180), Motta (+155)
Round 1
Referee Herb Dean will need to be on his A-game for this next fight, as it might not need the judges. Lightweights Torres (13-2, 1-0 UFC) – with his 92% finish rate, and eight straight fights to end in Round 1 – and knockout-minded Motta (13-4, 1-1 UFC) collide with sights set on bonus checks. The fighters meet in the middle of the cage and clap their hands together, and get right to it. Torres reaches out with several front kicks, and Motta tries to swing right hands back but is out of range. Torres plans a pair of kicks on the lead wheel of his opponent, and they trade leg kicks after. Motta steps in with a two-punch combination, and Motta crashes the pocket and nails him with a left hand. Torres, wide-eyed from the strike, backs off, and Motta gets him with a low kick. Torres tries to calm himself down by tossing out a front kick, and he chases after Motta with a few punches but cannot get to him.
Torres has his lead leg nailed, and he loads up with an elbow with every ounce of his might. The elbow smashes directly into the face of “Iron Motta,” who collapses lifelessly to the mat on his side.
Before Dean can run across the cage to break them up, Torres smacks Motta with a few hammerfists, and he is mercifully pulled away as Motta is long gone. Torres runs to celebrate, and medical professionals race into the cage to tend to the completely ruined Motta, who is still out. As Torres realizes how badly he destroyed Motta, he drops down to his knees and expresses concern for the fallen fighter. Thankfully, Motta eventually comes back around, and he returns to his stool and is embraced by the victorious Torres. The knockout turned from outstanding to scary in an instant, but Torres just registered one of the more destructive one-shot finishes seen in a while.
The Official Result
Manuel Torres def. Nikolas Motta R1 1:50 via KO (Elbow)
Angelo picks Nikolas Motta as the underdog. He believes Motta is the more powerful striker and will avoid Torres's plum clinch and takedowns. Torres has a BJJ advantage but will struggle to get the fight to the ground. Angelo plans to bet Motta plus 3.5 points on the judge's scorecard, so a 29-28 loss still pays.
Big Brady picks Manuel Torres to win by first-round knockout. He describes Torres as a wild, relentless fighter who pushes a high pace and looks for finishes. Brady notes Torres has been finished twice by submission but has good durability and chin, while Motta has been knocked out multiple times. He believes Torres will make it his fight and overwhelm Motta with pressure and volume. Brady expects a chaotic car crash of a fight ending early in Torres' favor.
Cody is high on Torres, citing his finishing ability, good volume, durability, and multiple ways to win. He notes that Torres has a nasty submission game and striking, and that his only losses came via leg locks early in his career. Cody thinks Torres will overwhelm Motta with volume and eventually catch him, predicting a knockout after the over 1.5 rounds. He acknowledges Motta's durability is a question mark.
Connor picks Torres, citing his chin and comfort in the pocket. He notes that Motta is a sharp counter puncher but gets hit cleanly and lacks durability. Connor expects Torres to fire back when hit and eventually overwhelm Motta with power.
Daniel Levi picks Nikolas Motta, citing Motta's superior technical striking and counter boxing. He notes Torres's reckless striking leaves openings, and Motta can exploit them. He also mentions Motta's grappling as a potential path to tire Torres. He acknowledges the danger in the first few minutes but believes Motta can weather the storm and take over.
Torres has cardio issues and is mostly an early knockout threat. Motta is a better technical striker with more experience. If Motta survives the early onslaught, he can take over in the second round and find his own knockout. The fight likely ends inside the distance. Motta wins by knockout.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Torres puts on a high pace early and often, and that his significant strike totals are impressive. He questions whether Torres can maintain that pace if the fight extends, but given Motta's durability issues, he thinks Torres will get the job done. Paul likes the over 37.5 significant strikes for Torres on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru picks Manuel Torres over Nikolas Motta, citing Torres as a good prospect with momentum and a reach advantage. He notes Motta was slept by Jim Miller and has questionable striking defense. He expects a stand-up fight favoring Torres, who has improved over a year off.
Zane picks Torres because of his durability and ability to navigate wild exchanges. He notes that Motta is fragile and has been knocked out multiple times, while Torres has never been KO'd. Zane believes that in a pocket exchange, Torres will land the harder shots and Motta will break.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 24 of 40 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Frank Camacho | 1 | 34 of 64 | 53% | 34 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Torres | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 24 of 40 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Frank Camacho | 1 | 34 of 64 | 53% | 34 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres | 16 of 31 | 51% | 10 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Frank Camacho | 34 of 64 | 53% | 27 of 56 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 60 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Torres | 16 of 31 | 51% | 10 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Frank Camacho | 34 of 64 | 53% | 27 of 56 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 60 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Torres (-130), Camacho (+110)
Round 1
Camacho and Torres waste no time in slinging punches as referee Herb Dean gets out of their way. Camacho briefly looks for a takedown, but otherwise there’s nothing but fists flying for a solid minute. Camacho lands a stinging jab but eats a right-hand counter from the Mexican. Camacho runs Torres into the fence and drives a knee up the middle. They disengage and meet in the center of the Octagon. Torres lands a big rear hand uppercut that rocks Camacho. Sensing he has his man hurt, Torres pursues with punches. Camacho appears to be recovering, throwing back, when Torres slips a punch and lands a blistering left-right combo that drops Camacho to his seat in a daze. Referee Dean rushes in for the stop, and Manuel Torres has made his UFC debut in scintillating fashion.
The Official Result
Manuel Roberto Torres def. Frank Camacho R1 3:27 via TKO (Punches)
Cody picks Camacho but with very low confidence. He notes Camacho has more experience, a BJJ black belt, and looks in great shape on social media after a year off. However, he acknowledges Camacho's recent loss to Justin James and fight pullouts. He says there's not a shred of confidence in the selection.
Paul is undecided, calling it a 50-50 stay-away fight. He notes there's not enough footage on Torres and Camacho's last performance was poor. He mentions the line is close and he doesn't have enough confidence to pick either side.
Chris Duncan - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 62 of 84 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 3:16 |
| Chris Duncan | 0 | 27 of 62 | 43% | 30 of 66 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 14 of 20 | 70% | 16 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Chris Duncan | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 46 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:03 |
| Chris Duncan | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano | 21 of 36 | 58% | 16 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 27 of 62 | 43% | 8 of 39 | 5 of 7 | 14 of 16 | 25 of 60 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Moicano | 14 of 20 | 70% | 10 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Duncan | 17 of 38 | 44% | 3 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 13 | 15 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Renato Moicano | 7 of 16 | 43% | 6 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 10 of 24 | 41% | 5 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Chris Duncan, noting his durability and never-quit attitude. He acknowledges Moicano is more technical and experienced but believes Moicano is old and used up. He points out that Duncan has a history of winning fights he's not supposed to and that Moicano's recent focus may not be enough. Angelo has no bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Chris Duncan to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Moicano is dangerous in the first round but fades after that, citing the Dariush fight where Moicano did nothing in the last 10 minutes. He believes Duncan has better cardio, durability, and power, and that his takedown defense has improved since the Manuel Torres loss. He expects Duncan to drop the first round but take over and eventually knock out Moicano.
Cody picks Duncan due to his momentum, youth, and ability to take over in later rounds. He notes Moicano's losing streak and potential lack of focus, but acknowledges the fight could be competitive early. He expects Duncan's superior striking and work rate to secure a win.
Connor picks Duncan, citing his remarkable improvement and decision-making. He notes that Duncan is no longer just a brawler; he picks his shots, has good footwork, and makes smart decisions under pressure. Connor believes Duncan's takedown defense and scrambling ability are underrated, and that Moicano's tendency to engage in chaotic fights plays into Duncan's hands. He sees Duncan as the more dangerous striker and thinks this is the right moment for him to win.
The host finds it difficult to bet pre-fight. He notes Duncan is easy to take down, which plays into Moicano's strength, but Moicano's chin and cardio are questionable in a five-round fight. He sees value on neither side and will watch for live betting. He also notes the odds for 'fight doesn't go to decision' are terrible.
James is rooting for his friend Chris Duncan and has released a full breakdown video with him. He mentions Chris is his friend and he will be rooting for him against Moicano, indicating a clear pick for Duncan.
Lucrative James picks Chris Duncan to win, citing his durability and power advantage over Moicano. He believes Duncan's momentum and shorter camp have him in peak form, and he predicts a fourth-round TKO finish. James also notes that Duncan's confidence is high from training with Moicano and seeing his own improvement.
Lucrative James picks Chris Duncan to win, citing Duncan's upward trajectory, age advantage (32 vs 36), superior cardio, durability, and will to win. He notes Moicano's possible decline due to outside interests and a longer camp. James expects a war but believes Duncan's physicality and recoverability will carry him, especially in later rounds. He mentions Duncan's power and takedown defense as key factors, though he acknowledges Moicano's early speed and submission threat. James states he won't bet publicly due to friendship bias but will have 'beer money' on Duncan.
The host expects Duncan to counter Moicano effectively, showcase good grappling defense, and eventually break Moicano for a finish inside the distance. He notes Moicano's recent struggles, poor durability, and questionable gas tank, while Duncan is on a four-fight winning streak with evolving skills. The host predicts a second-round TKO or submission for Duncan.
Paul leans towards Duncan, citing that Moicano struggles when outwrestled. He expects Duncan to use takedowns and control to win, though he's not heavily invested and plans to live bet.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Duncan, admitting he has doubted him before but is now convinced. He believes Duncan's durability, grit, and damage output will overcome Moicano, especially if the fight gets scrappy. He notes Moicano hasn't looked himself and that Duncan has good submission defense. He predicts a third-round TKO.
Zane leans toward Moicano because of the clear takedown threat against Duncan, who has shown vulnerability to being taken down. He notes that Moicano has a good single leg and is an underrated wrestler, not just a submission artist. However, he acknowledges Duncan's improved decision-making and danger on the feet, making this a close fight. Zane ultimately trusts the grappling advantage but is not fully confident.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 53 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 53 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 36 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 36 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 27 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Duncan (-170), McKinney (+142)
Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. McKinney walks Duncan into the fence and lands a massive knee followed by a head kick. That sets off a wild exchange where McKinney appears to get the best of the brawl by rocking his adversary with several heavy punches. A rocked Duncan wisely shoots out of desperation, and he somehow gets McKinney down. McKinney is up in short order, and he lands an elbow and a knee. Duncan, who still looks to be on shaky legs, somehow rocks McKinney with a right hand at range. They continue to trade with reckless aggression and just when it seems like Duncan is reeling, he rocks his foe with a wicked elbow in close quarters. McKinney crumbles to the floor and Duncan tees off with a series of unanswered punches. Goddard is taking a close look as the assault continues. Duncan’s punches aren’t especially powerful, though, so McKinney is getting some leeway. McKinney doesn’t seem to have much left, and the Scot decides to shift gears.
Duncan locks up an anaconda choke and applies the squeeze. McKinney taps in short order
, ending a wild bout that lived up to its violence potential.
The Official Result
Chris Duncan def. Terrance McKinney via Submission (Anaconda Choke) R1 2:30
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his poor durability and cardio. He believes McKinney is incredibly dangerous early and can get the fight to the ground to find a finish. He notes that Chris Duncan is extremely durable and often comes back from being hurt, but Angelo thinks McKinney's early explosiveness will be enough. He advises against betting due to the high risk.
Big Brady picks Chris Duncan, noting McKinney's tendency to fade after early bursts and his seven career finishes. He highlights Duncan's improved ground game and chin, and expects Duncan to weather the early storm and knock out McKinney late in the first round.
Cody leans toward McKinney, citing his explosive start and finishing ability. He notes that McKinney's fights are usually over in the first round and that Duncan has shown a questionable chin. He mentions that if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan's cardio advantage could come into play, but he trusts McKinney's early burst.
Connor picks Chris Duncan, noting that Duncan has improved significantly at ATT, developing a calm, consistent striking game with good shot selection and power. He contrasts McKinney's all-gas-no-brakes style that fades after two minutes, and believes Duncan has the answers to McKinney's early blitz.
Daniel picks Duncan, reasoning that if he survives McKinney's first-round onslaught, he will take over. He notes McKinney has never been past the first round and fades, while Duncan has shown durability and finishing ability. He sees Duncan winning by knockout or submission in later rounds.
Lucrative James acknowledges his bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides detailed reasoning. He believes McKinney's only chance is an early finish, while Duncan's physicality, cardio, and improving grappling defense will carry him through. He notes Duncan's training with Grant Dawson and focus on back-take defense. He predicts Duncan wins inside the distance, likely by KO.
The host acknowledges the recent love for McKinney but expects Duncan to take advantage of McKinney's overaggressive style and find a finish within one and a half rounds.
Paul picks Duncan, emphasizing his multiple paths to victory. He notes that McKinney's win condition is a first-round finish, while Duncan has power, a guillotine choke, and cardio. He mentions that Duncan trains at American Top Team and has prepared for McKinney's wrestling. He believes if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan will take over.
The Guru picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging Duncan may be the better fighter. He believes McKinney's speed and first-round explosiveness will catch Duncan, who is hittable early. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO, possibly in the first minute.
Zane picks Chris Duncan, emphasizing that McKinney has never won a UFC fight outside the first two minutes and loses when his initial blitz fails. He notes Duncan's improved striking and power, and believes Duncan can weather the early storm and take over. Zane thinks the odds should be wider in Duncan's favor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Duncan | 0 | 114 of 267 | 42% | 123 of 278 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 0 | 92 of 222 | 41% | 95 of 225 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Duncan | 0 | 32 of 74 | 43% | 38 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 0 | 19 of 62 | 30% | 19 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chris Duncan | 0 | 38 of 88 | 43% | 38 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 0 | 25 of 62 | 40% | 26 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Chris Duncan | 0 | 44 of 105 | 41% | 47 of 109 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 0 | 48 of 98 | 48% | 50 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Duncan | 114 of 267 | 42% | 88 of 235 | 7 of 13 | 19 of 19 | 104 of 256 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 92 of 222 | 41% | 67 of 181 | 20 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 85 of 214 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Duncan | 32 of 74 | 43% | 20 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 11 | 30 of 72 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 19 of 62 | 30% | 10 of 47 | 6 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Duncan | 38 of 88 | 43% | 32 of 78 | 0 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 38 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 25 of 62 | 40% | 17 of 48 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 25 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Chris Duncan | 44 of 105 | 41% | 36 of 96 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 96 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 48 of 98 | 48% | 40 of 86 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 41 of 90 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-200); Duncan (+170)
Round 1
Remaining in the lightweight division for the co-main event, a pair of friends and training partners at American Top Team will throw down for Coconut Creek bragging rights. Both men happen to be a win or two from ranked opposition, so this “separating wheat from chaff” matchup has fairly high stakes relative to most other fights on the card—the preceding Rosa vs. Cornolle pairing was the lone bout on the card between two ranked combatants. Rebecki (20-2, 4-1 UFC) and Duncan (13-2, 4-1 UFC) will handle their business with matching 4-1 records in the UFC at stake, and referee Kerry Hatley will serve as the third man in the Octagon. The teammates touch gloves before determining how exactly how much pain they wish to inflict on one another.
Duncan leads off immediately with a head kick, and Rebecki comes right after him swinging. Rebecki loads up on his left hand, and Duncan knocks him back with his own right hook. The two are talking to one another as they load up with massive power—at this point, it appears they are going brawl it out. Rebecki knocks Duncan down to the ground with his swinging shots, and Duncan is able to get back to his feet. As they trade again, a giant mouse develops on the top right corner of Rebecki’s head. Rebecki takes Duncan down briefly, and Duncan threatens off his back with an elbow and then tries to get hold of a submission. Rebecki backs out and stands up, with Duncan following suit. Rebecki is quick get put his foot on the gas once more, and Duncan fires back with impunity and opens a cut on Rebecki’s forehead above his right eyebrow. Duncan sits down on an elbow that Rebecki eats like a steak, and Rebecki continues to walk through damaging blows.
Duncan stays on his back foot attacking with body kicks, and Rebecki gets close to him and drives home three quick punches. Duncan strikes with another elbow and whiffs on a head kick, and he recovers after getting countered. Duncan goes for a body kick, and Rebecki counters cleanly with a right hook. Duncan drives a knee to the body and falls to his back, and Rebecki tackles him down and looks to get to the guard. Duncan turns over while under fire to get to his feet, and Rebecki is clinging to him from behind. Rebecki leans on his training partner, and Duncan grabs the fence to get a better position. Duncan breaks out of the grip around his waist, and they proceed to trade long straight punches. Duncan steps in with a knee and is wobbled by an overhand right. Rebecki swings with everything he has, a left hand jacking Duncan in the jaw but not hurting him. Duncan scores a few elbows, and the tense, vicious round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Round 2
Rebecki comes right out of his corner ready to attack, and he does just that by nailing Duncan with a crisp one-two. Duncan counters with a right hand, and he is reached by a left hook upstairs. Duncan delivers a body kick as Rebecki comes at him, and he does this again as Rebecki is trying to swing for the bleachers. Duncan misses on a kick, and Rebecki is bleeding again and strikes the body to open up head shots. Rebecki lobs a big left and a right that land flush on the sides of his foe’s head, and Duncan appears to get his foe’s attention with a sharp right hand. The Scotsman follows with a head kick that Rebecki somehow absorbs, barely still with it. Rebecki blinks it out and shoots for a double, and he takes a knee on the jaw on the way in. Duncan worms his way out the position to work back upright, and he elbows his teammate in the cut that has developed swelling around the gaping wound.
Rebecki does not care about the damage, blood in his eyes and a golf ball on his forehead, as he loops huge punches at Duncan again and again. Rebecki’s huge haymakers have swelled up Duncan’s eyes, and both men are going to need some recovery time when this is all said and done. Duncan rips a kick to the body and then stabs him in the torso with his toes. Rebecki lowers his guard to defend his guts, compromised from the strike, so Duncan attacks him with an elbow up top. Duncan goes to the body with kicks, and even when blocked, Rebecki takes them hard on the arms. Rebecki loads up on three punches to the dome, and he chases after Duncan with left hands as Duncan’s right eye balloons. Duncan kicks the front leg and jabs the gaping wound on his foe’s head, while Rebecki chases after him. Duncan knees him in the belly, and they trade hands right to the bell. Rebecki’s right eye is nearly swollen shut, and this one might not make it to the third round because of how trashed his face is.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Duncan
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Round 3
Rebecki is cleared between rounds, and he comes out of his corner like a berserker. Swinging his way forward to shoot for takedown, he gets Duncan down and pops back up without concern. Rebecki lets him up so he can punch him in the face, and they proceed to trade hilariously heavy leather. Duncan intercepts his hard-swinging foe with faster strikes, backing off the Polish brawler and forcing a shot out of him. Duncan stops it and blocks the oncoming fire, but Rebecki still gets through. Duncan lands a body kick, and Rebecki still manages to shoot in on his hips. Duncan hits the deck and threatens with an anaconda choke, rolling through it to lock it down, but Rebecki rolls through it further to escape. They both get up, and Duncan aims a head kick at Rebecki’s leaking visage. Rebecki looks for takedowns as he appears to be fading, while Duncan beats on him with elbows. Rebecki rips open a cut on Duncan’s left eye, and Duncan completely ignores it as he bashes Rebecki in the swollen eye. Just bleed indeed.
Rebecki has his right eye closed, and Duncan closes in to tie him up to get a few seconds to catch his wind before they re-engage. Duncan stabs the body with his foot, and Rebecki is right in his face slugging him. Rebecki loops a left hand and zips an uppercut through the guard. Both men are bloodied and battered, but they continue to bang. Duncan wobbles back, starting to feel it himself, and Rebecki somehow is willing himself into a second or third wind. Duncan pushes “Chinczyk” to the fence, and Rebecki explodes out and hurls punches in bunches. Duncan boots him in the head, and Rebecki is impossibly tough as he tanks it and keeps throwing caution to the wind. Duncan lines up a knee to the forehead, and Rebecki unloads several uppercuts on the inside. They split up, and smash one another in the face right until time expires. Blood pours out of various wounds on both men, and Rebecki collapses to his knees while Duncan raises his arms in the air. What a titanic tussle, somehow outdoing the match before it and putting itself in contention for “Fight of the Year.” TLDR? Go back and watch this somehow.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Duncan)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Rebecki)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Rebecki)
The Official Result
Chris Duncan def. Mateusz Rebecki via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Connor picks Duncan despite the fight being a toss-up. He believes Duncan is more naturally dangerous as a finisher and power striker, and that his improved shot selection and calmness under pressure will allow him to land big shots. He acknowledges Rębecki's pressure and durability could wear Duncan down, but trusts Duncan's one-shot power to turn the fight.
Lucrative James admits bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides a detailed breakdown. He believes Duncan has the size and reach advantage, better overall striking with kicks and range management, and the power to hurt Rębecki. He thinks Rębecki will struggle to take Duncan down due to Duncan's strength and ability to get back up, and that Rębecki may gas out if he grapples too much. He predicts a war where Duncan hurts Rębecki and finishes with a submission in round 2. He also mentions playing an under on the fight not going to decision.
Zane picks Rębecki, noting that Rębecki's constant pressure, body work, and clinch grinding could overwhelm Duncan, who has struggled against aggressive fighters like Manuel Torres. He questions whether Duncan's improved shot selection will hold up against Rębecki's relentless pace. Zane sees Rębecki as a more consistent process fighter who can wear down opponents over time.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Vucenic | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 22 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 15 of 40 | 37% | 24 of 50 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 5:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Vucenic | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 16 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 | |
| 2 | Jordan Vucenic | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 18 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Chris Duncan | 0 | 6 of 27 | 22% | 8 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 1:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Vucenic | 16 of 26 | 61% | 13 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 12 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Chris Duncan | 15 of 40 | 37% | 9 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Vucenic | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Duncan | 9 of 13 | 69% | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 | |
| 2 | Jordan Vucenic | 15 of 23 | 65% | 12 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Chris Duncan | 6 of 27 | 22% | 4 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jordan Vucenic but is hesitant due to the heavy -350 odds. He acknowledges Vucenic looked good in his debut despite the loss, showing durability and danger. He worries about Chris Duncan's incredible durability and ability to come back from being beaten. He decides not to bet the fight due to the poor value.
Brady is high on Vucenic, praising his striking and opportunistic submission game. He thinks Vucenic has advantages everywhere: speed, durability, and grappling. He notes Chris Duncan is a walking punching bag and was submitted by Manuel Torres. Brady predicts a second-round submission.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Vucenic. He emphasizes Vucenic's technical boxing, lead right hand, and ability to finish fights, while Duncan struggles going backwards and lacks a jab. He believes Vucenic will boss Duncan around from the start.
The host thinks the line is a bit wide but expects Vucenic to put together a better body of work and win on the scorecards. He suggests the over 1.5 rounds is the best way to bet this fight.
The Guru is confident in Jordan Vucenic, citing his speed, technical striking, and composure. He notes that Vucenic is much faster than Duncan and has reach at lightweight. He expects Vucenic to school Duncan over three rounds, winning a 30-27 decision, as Duncan is too slow and susceptible to getting caught in submissions.
Zane picks Vucenic confidently, highlighting his improved pressure fighting, technical striking, and finishing instincts. He contrasts Duncan's lack of a range game and poor defense going backwards, predicting Vucenic will overwhelm him. He notes Vucenic's loss to Kutateladze was competitive and he has since improved.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Duncan | 0 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 29 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Bolaji Oki | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Duncan | 0 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 29 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Bolaji Oki | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Duncan | 28 of 50 | 56% | 25 of 47 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 39 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 3 |
| Bolaji Oki | 10 of 25 | 40% | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Duncan | 28 of 50 | 56% | 25 of 47 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 39 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 3 |
| Bolaji Oki | 10 of 25 | 40% | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Chris Duncan as an underdog. He believes Duncan's willingness to stand in the pocket and pump a jab non-stop will frustrate Oki, who has defensive issues and gets hit often. Duncan's durability and ability to survive being dropped are key factors. Angelo notes he might sprinkle a small bet if Duncan's line becomes a bigger underdog.
Big Brady picks Bolaji Oki but is hesitant due to Chris Duncan's poor striking defense (49%) and tendency to walk into shots. He notes Oki has power and could hurt Duncan, but thinks the fight could be close and competitive. He expects Oki to win by decision, possibly dropping Duncan at some point.
Cody leans towards Duncan as an underdog, citing Oki's questionable cardio and takedown defense. He notes that Duncan has wrestling and can take Oki down, potentially tiring him. However, he acknowledges Oki's power and the risk of getting knocked out. He doesn't plan to bet heavily.
Cody picks Bolaji Oki as his tournament play, highlighting his physicality, power, and early knockout potential. He notes Oki is minus 105 to win inside the distance and that Chris Duncan has been badly hurt in past fights. Cody believes Oki is a more technical and powerful striker with better durability, making him a sneaky tournament target at 8.8k.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Oki is a much cruder fighter despite being a better athlete. He thinks Duncan's experience and ability to game plan will be key. Connor also mentions that Duncan has shown flexibility in his approach, which should help him avoid Oki's early power.
Daniel Vreeland picks Bolaji Oki to win by knockout. He thinks Oki is much faster and more powerful on the feet, and that Duncan is hittable and slow. He notes Oki's good takedown defense and counter-striking. He expects Oki to hurt Duncan and finish him, possibly with body shots.
JP picks Bolaji Oki because of his power and nine-fight win streak. He notes Oki has never been finished and Chris Duncan has been KO'd by Slava Claus and submitted by Manuel Torres, which he views as poor performances. JP believes Oki's power will be too much for Duncan.
Paul leans towards Oki, believing his power will eventually catch Duncan, who has a questionable chin. He notes that Oki's takedown defense is a concern, but Duncan's wrestling isn't elite. He expects Oki to land a knockout at some point, though he's not confident enough to bet heavily.
The MMA Guru picks Bolaji Oki over Chris Duncan, citing Oki's superior speed and fluidity. He notes that Duncan is slow for the division and hasn't impressed, while Oki looked technical in his UFC debut. He predicts Oki will land more damaging shots and win by decision.
Zane picks Duncan as an experience pick, noting that Duncan is reasonably well-rounded and can game plan. He thinks Duncan can lean on wrestling or aggressive striking to pressure Oki. However, he acknowledges Duncan has meltdown potential, but Oki doesn't have a grappling threat to trouble Duncan.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Chris Duncan | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Torres | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Chris Duncan | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Torres | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manuel Torres | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Torres (-162), Duncan (+136)
Round 1
To kick off the main card, the promotion booked a lightweight affair with fighters that seem allergic to the final bell. The ultra-aggressive Torres (14-2, 2-0 UFC) has only gone the distance once in 16 pro outings, while Scotland’s Duncan (11-1, 2-0 UFC) has needed the involve the judges on three occasions thus far in his tenure. While the scorecards may not be required, referee Mike Beltran is ready to step in at a moment’s notice. A sign of respect in the form of a clap of hands starts things off, and Torres moves right to the middle of the cage. When Torres throws a punch, Duncan counters with a clean right hand that nearly knocks the Mexican off his feet. Torres partially recovers, and Duncan charges at him. Torres tosses Duncan to the side and whips a high kick at him, and Duncan wears it on the chin and starts going after a takedown. As the two jockey for position, they result in a scramble, and Duncan takes Torres down. Torres fights his way around and takes the back, and he looks for chokes but cannot find one. As Torres wrenches Duncan to the canvas, this time he has the advantageous position to keep shifting and secure the back take to get his hooks in.
Torres immediately grips a rear-naked choke on top of the chin, and he calmly slides it under the chin and puts Duncan in grave danger. “The Problem” tries to solve his problem by hand-fighting and hoping to break the choke grasp, but there is nothing he can do as they are fresh and dry. Duncan considers briefly going out on his shield, but he ultimately taps out instead.
The lightweight from Mexico kicks his finish rate up a notch while landing an equal number of submission to knockouts in his career. A whole 14 of his 15 pro wins for "El Loco" have come in the first round.
The Official Result
Manuel Torres def. Chris Duncan R1 1:46 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Torres as the more dangerous fighter, citing his length and finishing ability. He acknowledges Duncan's durability and toughness but believes Torres will eventually break him. He mentions that over 1.5 rounds might be solid but Torres is the pick.
Big Brady picks Manuel Torres to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Torres has 15 finishes in 16 fights, all in the first round, and is a chaotic striker. He criticizes Chris Duncan's 49% striking defense and notes that Duncan has been knocked down and knocked out before. Brady believes Torres will draw Duncan into a brawl and that Torres has more power and durability. He expects the fight to end in the first round.
Cody picks Duncan as an underdog, noting that Torres is a first-round finisher with suspect cardio and grappling. He believes Duncan can take Torres down, make him carry weight, and grind him out. He mentions Duncan's improved wrestling and game plan against Ashmus. He acknowledges the risk of getting melted early but likes the plus price.
The host acknowledges Torres's power and early finishes but notes he overextends and can be countered. He believes Duncan is a more educated striker with a well-rounded game. If Duncan can survive the early onslaught, he can grind Torres against the cage and on the mat, finding a finish in the second or third round as Torres slows down.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Duncan. He notes Torres is an offensive dynamo but has cardio issues and poor grappling defense. Duncan's takedowns and pressure could be key. He mentions Duncan's camp at American Top Team and his improved fight IQ. He thinks Duncan can avoid a gunfight and grind out a win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Duncan | 0 | 85 of 206 | 41% | 87 of 209 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 35 of 98 | 35% | 36 of 100 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Duncan | 0 | 19 of 60 | 31% | 19 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chris Duncan | 0 | 26 of 60 | 43% | 26 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Chris Duncan | 0 | 40 of 86 | 46% | 42 of 89 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 13 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Duncan | 85 of 206 | 41% | 54 of 161 | 23 of 30 | 8 of 15 | 82 of 200 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 35 of 98 | 35% | 15 of 68 | 8 of 14 | 12 of 16 | 34 of 96 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Duncan | 19 of 60 | 31% | 11 of 46 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 9 | 19 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 9 of 28 | 32% | 4 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Duncan | 26 of 60 | 43% | 12 of 41 | 12 of 14 | 2 of 5 | 26 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 14 of 36 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Chris Duncan | 40 of 86 | 46% | 31 of 74 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 37 of 80 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Yanal Ashmouz | 12 of 34 | 35% | 5 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 8 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo likes Chris Duncan's forward pressure and grit, noting that Duncan has been dropped but never out of a fight. He questions Yanal Ashmouz's takedown defense and thinks Duncan's wrestling will be a factor. He has placed a half-unit bet on Duncan at near even money.
Big Brady picks Shauna Bannon as a dog, but admits he hates the pick and won't bet it. He thinks Bannon has a path to victory through wrestling, as Brasil has poor takedown defense (45%). He notes Brasil is the more skilled striker but looked awful in her debut. He is not high on either fighter.
Cody picks Ashmouz, citing his power and aggression. He notes Duncan was knocked out by Borshchev and has suspect durability. He thinks Ashmouz's wrestling and power are advantages, and likes the plus money.
Daniel leans toward Chris Duncan, citing his improved grappling and cage work shown in his last fight, as well as his physicality. He notes Duncan is training at ATT and getting high-level looks. However, he is not sold on Duncan's durability and thinks he is hittable. He is not interested in betting Duncan at -140 due to the unknowns about Ashmouz. He says he needs to see more from both fighters.
James picks Chris Duncan to win. He thinks Duncan is a better striker overall, with size and reach advantages. He believes Ashmouz will struggle to wrestle Duncan, making it a striking fight where Duncan has the edge. James notes that Ashmouz was a +300 underdog in his last fight and is now -110, which he sees as a market overcorrection. He acknowledges that both fighters have knockout power and the fight is volatile, but he favors Duncan.
The host picks Yanal Ashmouz, citing his durability, explosiveness, and power to find an early finish. He expects both to grapple initially but thinks it becomes a fistfight where Ashmouz's power prevails. He suggests the fight doesn't go to decision and that unders are safe.
Paul picks Ashmouz, recalling his KO of Sam Patterson. He thinks Duncan is stiff and hittable, and Ashmouz's power is a real threat. He notes Duncan's wrestling looked good against Morales but still favors the dog.
The MMA Guru picks Yanal Ashmouz, calling Chris Duncan's favorite status 'straight up incorrect odds'. He criticizes Duncan's UFC debut as one of the worst, showing no skill on the feet and a slow grappling game against an older Omar Morales. He notes Duncan has been finished before on the Contender Series. The Guru highlights Ashmouz's explosiveness and KO power, predicting a first-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Duncan | 0 | 53 of 83 | 63% | 62 of 92 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 6:31 |
| Omar Morales | 0 | 47 of 80 | 58% | 53 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Duncan | 0 | 24 of 40 | 60% | 24 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Omar Morales | 0 | 26 of 42 | 61% | 27 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chris Duncan | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 20 of 30 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
| Omar Morales | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Chris Duncan | 0 | 15 of 19 | 78% | 18 of 22 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 |
| Omar Morales | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Duncan | 53 of 83 | 63% | 12 of 25 | 17 of 21 | 24 of 37 | 43 of 73 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 7 |
| Omar Morales | 47 of 80 | 58% | 32 of 64 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 10 | 41 of 73 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Duncan | 24 of 40 | 60% | 6 of 13 | 6 of 8 | 12 of 19 | 21 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Omar Morales | 26 of 42 | 61% | 18 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 37 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Chris Duncan | 14 of 24 | 58% | 1 of 4 | 5 of 7 | 8 of 13 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Omar Morales | 7 of 17 | 41% | 4 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Chris Duncan | 15 of 19 | 78% | 5 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Omar Morales | 14 of 21 | 66% | 10 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo likes Chris Duncan because of his toughness and ability to recover from being dropped. He thinks Omar Morales' chin is effectively gone after back-to-back stoppage losses. He placed a half-unit bet on Duncan at -108 and expected the line to move. He believes Duncan will take damage but get the win.
Big Brady picks Chris Duncan as a slight underdog, citing his youth (29 vs 37), power, and toughness despite terrible striking defense. He notes Morales has not shown finishing ability at UFC level and is getting older. He predicts a second-round knockout, but admits he could care less about this fight and finds it hard to call.
Cody picks Morales, despite his low volume and recent KO loss. He notes Duncan is a brawler who gets hit a lot and has poor defense. He thinks Morales has power and can land a big shot, especially with his training at Kill Cliff. He says Morales needs to show aggression and pounce if he hurts Duncan. He admits it's a risky pick but sees value.
Connor picks Morales but with alarm bells, noting that Morales has mentally deteriorated after three hard losses and a failed weight cut. He believes the matchup is winnable because Duncan is a brawler who will trade at Morales's preferred range. However, he worries that Morales may break if frustrated, as seen in his last fight where he brawled wildly.
Jacob picks Omar Morales, citing experience and technical striking. He thinks Chris Duncan is slower than Uros Medic and not as relentless a wrestler as Jonathan Pearce, who beat Morales. He believes Morales can touch up Duncan on the feet and that Duncan will default to wrestling, where Morales is no joke on the ground.
Morales is a disciplined striker with good distance management and kicks, while Duncan is a brawler who leaves himself open to counters. Morales should use his technical advantage to pick Duncan apart from range, likely winning a decision. If Duncan gets reckless, Morales could even get a knockout.
Paul picks Morales, echoing that Duncan is not UFC caliber. He notes Morales used to be durable but questions his chin after the KO. He thinks Morales has a better camp and can win, but if it goes to decision, the UK crowd might favor Duncan. He says it's a pick'em price and expects fireworks.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Duncan over Omar Morales, citing Duncan's youth and toughness. He notes Duncan had a rough weight cut before his contender series loss but has since recovered. Morales is 37 and coming off a KO loss, and his competition outside the UFC is not impressive. He predicts a fun scrap with Duncan winning a 29-28 decision, having more in the tank.
Zane also picks Morales but is cautious. He notes that Duncan is a wild brawler who gets hurt often, and Morales has the counter ability and sharpness to exploit that. However, he acknowledges that Morales's recent performances have been poor and that the fight is a referendum on where Morales is mentally.
Expert Picks (5)
Angelo picks Torres as the more dangerous fighter, citing his length and finishing ability. He acknowledges Duncan's durability and toughness but believes Torres will eventually break him. He mentions that over 1.5 rounds might be solid but Torres is the pick.
Big Brady picks Manuel Torres to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Torres has 15 finishes in 16 fights, all in the first round, and is a chaotic striker. He criticizes Chris Duncan's 49% striking defense and notes that Duncan has been knocked down and knocked out before. Brady believes Torres will draw Duncan into a brawl and that Torres has more power and durability. He expects the fight to end in the first round.
Cody picks Duncan as an underdog, noting that Torres is a first-round finisher with suspect cardio and grappling. He believes Duncan can take Torres down, make him carry weight, and grind him out. He mentions Duncan's improved wrestling and game plan against Ashmus. He acknowledges the risk of getting melted early but likes the plus price.
The host acknowledges Torres's power and early finishes but notes he overextends and can be countered. He believes Duncan is a more educated striker with a well-rounded game. If Duncan can survive the early onslaught, he can grind Torres against the cage and on the mat, finding a finish in the second or third round as Torres slows down.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Duncan. He notes Torres is an offensive dynamo but has cardio issues and poor grappling defense. Duncan's takedowns and pressure could be key. He mentions Duncan's camp at American Top Team and his improved fight IQ. He thinks Duncan can avoid a gunfight and grind out a win.
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