vs
-200 +180
UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev Next Fight
Age 32
Height 5' 5"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 5' 6"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Karine Silva
2.48 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.04 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
2.3 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
21.0% TD Def.
1.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Dione Barbosa
2.21 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
2.4 SApM
64.0% Str. Def.
2.4 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
1.7 Sub. Avg
Karine Silva
Moneyline
FanDuel -200
KO/TKO
Unibet +1050
Submission
FanDuel +440
Decision
FanDuel +130
Dione Barbosa
Moneyline
Unibet +180
KO/TKO
Unibet +2000
Submission
Unibet +1150
Decision
FanDuel +290
Karine Silva - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · Apr 18, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 18 of 76 23% 72 of 138 3 of 5 60% 0 0 8:09
Karine Silva 0 15 of 43 34% 88 of 127 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 1 of 17 5% 5 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:49
Karine Silva 0 7 of 12 58% 36 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 9 of 37 24% 20 of 50 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:20
Karine Silva 0 4 of 21 19% 12 of 31 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 8 of 22 36% 47 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:00
Karine Silva 0 4 of 10 40% 40 of 51 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jasmine Jasudavicius 18 of 76 23% 11 of 65 5 of 9 2 of 2 17 of 74 1 of 2 0 of 0
Karine Silva 15 of 43 34% 5 of 30 1 of 3 9 of 10 14 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 1 of 17 5% 0 of 13 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karine Silva 7 of 12 58% 2 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 5 6 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jasmine Jasudavicius 9 of 37 24% 4 of 32 3 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0
Karine Silva 4 of 21 19% 2 of 17 0 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jasmine Jasudavicius 8 of 22 36% 7 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karine Silva 4 of 10 40% 1 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Karine Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jasudavicius (-300); Silva (+250)

Round 1
The final women’s bout of the evening could perhaps put the victor closer to a title shot than any other match on the billing. Canada’s own Jasudavicius (14-4, 8-3 UFC) had her momentum blunted last October when Manon Fiorot punched her out, so she will look to put another run together. She starts by facing Fighting Nerds representative Silva (19-6, 5-2 UFC). The referee will be Jerin Valel, who watches over the flyweights that elect to touch gloves.
They are tentative to engage right off the bat, both hovering around the center of the Octagon with little more than a single leg kick to show for it after 30 seconds. Silva strikes with another calf kick after the ensuing lull, and her front kick goes wide. Jasudavicius looks to string a right hand down the pipe, but Silva parries it. It is nothing but shadowboxing for the two for minutes at a time.
Shortly after the midpoint of the round, Silva tries to clinch up and knee, but Jasudavicius pushes her away before long and they resume their staring contest. Jasudavicius considers catching a kick to take the fight down, Silva recoils it in time. This results in a clinch, and when Silva tries to throw her foe down, Jasudavicius counters her and trips her to the mat. The Canadian lowers herself into the guard, and Silva fastens it tightly around her waist. Silva lifts one leg up for a rubber guard, and she brings her other to tie Jasudavicius up and even sit up for an insanely flexible triangle choke setup. Jasudavicius mashes her back down to smother Silva down, but she is still caught in this arms-in triangle choke. Silva has her leg cinched around the right shoulder, the pressure on the back of Jasudavicius’ squeezing her into the chest of the Brazilian. The round ends seconds before the clock said the round was over, possibly saving Jasudavicius from a precarious predicament.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 2
There are no strikes seriously thrown for the first 25 seconds of the round, until Jasudavicius attempts to string a jab and follow-up behind it. Silva elbows her on the forehead, and Jasudavicius kicks her away. Silva leans and offers up a right hand, and she sways back to evade the expected counter that does not come in full force. Jasudavicius probes with a long front kick as the lulls in the action begin to grow, punctuated with brief exchanges of two or three punches and a possible kick. Silva catches the body kick and knocks her back a step with a right hand, releasing the limb to get more going but nothing follows it. Jasudavicius pinpoints a one-two while Silva ducks down for a possible level change, and she is out of range of a front kick tossed her direction. Jasudavicius marches Silva down and shoots in for a single, and she finds herself in immediate guillotine choke submission danger. Jasudavicius lets go of the takedown, and Silva jumps guard in hopes of locking it down but recovers her footing when Jasudavicius is not going down.
Jasudavicius shakes out of the sub attempt and resets of her own accord, where she proceeds to jab her way forward. The Canadian dives after a double, completing it to put Silva on her back on the corner between the floor and the fencing. Jasudavicius pulls Silva away from the cage to position herself in side control, and Silva wraps her legs around the back of her foe’s head for a potential reverse triangle choke. Jasudavicius frees herself without much concern and drops down punches and knees to the side. Silva pushes her feet off the cage to put herself in a better place than the north-south that has materialized, but Jasudavicius smothers her down and begins drumming on her face with her free right hand. Silva protects her self by placing it under Jasudavicius’ backside until Jasudavicius turns to put herself in a more traditional side control. The round ends with Jasudavicius hacking down with short elbows, and she stands up and raises up her index finger to the crowd.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 3
The first official strike comes seven seconds into the round courtesy of the Brazilian, who chops at the inside and outside of Jasudavicius’ lead leg. Jasudavicius reaches with a right hand and comes up short. Jasudavicius fakes a level change and stands Silva up with an uppercut, appearing to come out more aggressively as she dings Silva with a second uppercut. Jasudavicius shoots in on the hips and places Silva gingerly to her back. Silva uses her rubber guard right leg to wrap it up behind Jasudavicius’ head early, but she does not have the flexibility or gumption at the moment to do the same with her left. This results in nothing but pitter-patter bops to the side of Jasudavicius’ face. Silva slithers her leg up around the shoulder to tie up a triangle choke, and Jasudavicius sits up to keep the pressure off her neck and pitches the legs to the side to climb into side control. From there, the Canadian drops down the shortest of elbows anywhere she can find them, be it the shoulder, face, stomach or elsewhere.
Silva bucks and kicks, bringing Jasudavicius back to half guard but not taking any pressure off herself as Jasudavicius is using heavy shoulder and chest pressure to keep Silva stuck in this position. Jasudavicius is active enough with her offense, nothing overwhelmingly damaging but it is enough to keep Valel at bay. Silva pushes and kicks off the cage, getting warned for hooking her toes in it to move herself around, and she wraps her right leg up and around the back to set up an extremely unorthodox buggy choke. This stifles Jasudavicius from getting off more offense, although the submission danger is not very great from this specific angle. Silva clings to her sub effort until she runs out of steam in her arms and bursts over to flip to her knees. Jasudavicius follows her and keeps her on her back while raining down elbows, and time expires. The judges could go either way here.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius (29-28 Silva)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius (29-28 Silva)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius (29-28 Silva)

The Official Result
Jasmine Jasudavicius def. Karine Silva via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Angelo confidently picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, using MMA math: Macy Barber took down Karine Silva three times, so Jasmine will do the same. He notes Karine struggles under pressure, while Jasmine never backs down. He dismisses Jasmine's recent loss to Manon Fiorot as a high-level opponent.

"Jasmine Jazzy the vicious, very confident pick here. I think she gets it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Big Brady confidently picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, highlighting her size, strength, and vicious ground and pound. He notes Karine Silva's poor takedown defense (20%) and tendency to slow down. Brady predicts Jasudavicius will take Silva down, beat her up with elbows, and eventually find a submission in the third round.

third round submission
"Give me Jasmine Jasudavicius by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Cody picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, citing her superior wrestling and top control. He notes that Karine Silva struggles when taken down and that Jasudavicius has multiple paths to victory. He acknowledges the price is high but expects her to win.

"I got Jasmine Jissius, but is the kind of thing you can put on the top? No, because it is women's MMA, but she's one of those favorites that I'm going to have to bite down and accept the price …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Daniel views Jasudavicius as a top contender who has improved her striking and maintains a relentless pace. He thinks Silva is dangerous but will fade, and that Jasudavicius can avoid submissions and dominate. He picks Jasudavicius to get back in the win column.

"I'm going to pick Jasmine Jasticious to get back in the win column in Canada."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2026 (fight day)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Jasudavicius is a nightmare stylistic matchup for Silva. She is Canadian with home crowd, aggressive, well-rounded, and has a size advantage. Silva has poor takedown defense and gives up position on the ground. Jasudavicius can win standing or on the ground. Very high confidence she wins.

Good parlay piece
"I would be amazed if she were to lose this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

James predicts Jasmine Jasudavicius will win via round three finish. He expects Jasudavicius to survive early submission threats and use her pressure and cardio to gas out Silva, leading to a late TKO. He also suggests a 'round three or decision' prop.

Jasmine Jasudavicius wins in round three
"Jasmine Jazzicious via round three finish is my official prediction for this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

The host believes Jasudavicius will be safe enough in the striking realm and that it's a matter of time before the fight hits the mat. He trusts her submission defense and thinks she will grind out Silva from top position, landing big damage. He predicts a decision win, as Silva has shown cardio issues and Jasudavicius can accrue control time and damage.

"I'm going to go Jazmine Vicious by decision as I think she'll be able to accrue enough control time and damage from top position to win this fight in front of her home country."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Paul also picks Jasudavicius but is not heavily invested due to the price. He thinks she wins by decision and notes the Canadian crowd support. He mentions that the line is accurate but sees no value at -300.

"She is my pick. I think she wins by decision, but her decision props like minus 150. So, it's just like that's probably about accurate as well."
LOSS vs Maycee Barber
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maycee Barber 0 55 of 85 64% 89 of 130 3 of 5 60% 0 1 6:20
Karine Silva 0 21 of 45 46% 57 of 87 2 of 3 66% 0 1 3:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maycee Barber 0 15 of 31 48% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:21
Karine Silva 0 8 of 18 44% 14 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:49
2 Maycee Barber 0 21 of 25 84% 32 of 39 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:57
Karine Silva 0 11 of 16 68% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:11
3 Maycee Barber 0 19 of 29 65% 37 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:02
Karine Silva 0 2 of 11 18% 16 of 29 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maycee Barber 55 of 85 64% 41 of 66 4 of 7 10 of 12 30 of 52 0 of 1 25 of 32
Karine Silva 21 of 45 46% 8 of 30 4 of 5 9 of 10 16 of 32 1 of 4 4 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maycee Barber 15 of 31 48% 13 of 26 0 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 8
Karine Silva 8 of 18 44% 1 of 10 1 of 1 6 of 7 8 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 1
2 Maycee Barber 21 of 25 84% 18 of 22 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 8 0 of 1 15 of 16
Karine Silva 11 of 16 68% 7 of 12 2 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 8 1 of 1 4 of 7
3 Maycee Barber 19 of 29 65% 10 of 18 3 of 3 6 of 8 13 of 21 0 of 0 6 of 8
Karine Silva 2 of 11 18% 0 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 8 0 of 2 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barber (-192), Silva (+160)

Round 1
Mark Smith is the referee. Barber looks to get in range behind her jab, but Silva lands a hard low kick. A “USA” chant breaks out within 30 seconds. Barber is firing off her right hand, but hasn’t quite found the range yet. Silva is having success with low kicks early. Barber kicks the body and Silva answers with another low kick. Barber partially lands a high kick, but Silva takes the opportunity to close distance and take the American down. Silva is trying to take the back, but she’s falling off the side. The Brazilian adjusts the position and locks in a body triangle. Silva almost falls off the side again, but Barber can’t shake free. Silva recovers once again and they’re now seated against the fence. Silva creates openings for some short punches. Silva attacks the choke as they fall to the mat. The arm was only across the face, and Barber frees herself. Silva is still on Barber’s back. Barber is able to spin and take top position with about 20 seconds to go. Barber wastes no time, as she attacks with purposeful ground-and-pound while dodging upkicks until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barber
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barber

Round 2
Barber comes out slinging right hands at the outset of the round. Silva with a body kick. Barber lands a combination followed by a low kick. Barber catches a leg and takes Silva to the fence. Silva jumps a guillotine with her back to the fence. Silva adjusts to avoid winding up on the bottom. Barber pops her head free and eventually dumps Silva on the canvas. Silva creates a scramble but inadvertently lands an upkick on the downed Barber. Barber points it out and Smith calls time. The kick lands to Barber’s chin, but Smith tells her it’s only a glancing shot. A doctor comes in to examine Barber during the break. Barber says she’s a little dizzy but she’s ready to go. The action resumes with no point deduction. Barber wastes no time taking Silva down in the center of the cage. Barber lands some solid punches from top position. Silva is turtled, eating punches and fighting off Barber’s hands. Barber is now looking to take the back. In the meantime, she punishes Silva with several elbows to the side of the head. Barber continues to work, alternating between right hands and elbows to the head. Barber pulls her foe back to the mat with her. Rather than hunt for a submission, Barber transitions to top position. Silva looks to frame a triangle from her back and then she rolls into top position with the triangle in place. Fortunately for Barber, there were only a few seconds left in the period.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barber
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barber
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barber

Round 3
Silva fires a front kick and Barber responds with a pair of leg kicks. Barber pumps her jab into Silva’s face. Barber partially lands a high kick. Silva marches forward, and Barber lands a front kick. The flyweights nearly clash heads during an exchange. Barber lands a front kick down the middle. A left gets through for Barber, and Silva shoots for a takedown against the fence. Silva lands the takedown and is in her foe’s full guard. Barber is active with her guard, and Silva falls back for a heel hook. Barber scoots away, but Silva switches focus to the other leg. Barber frees herself and scrambles into top position with 2:00 to go. Silva wants to set up a triangle from her back. Silva can’t quite complete the maneuver, and Barber stacks her up. Barber stands and kicks her foe’s legs. Barber eats an upkick and then shoves Silva into the fence as she stands. Silva is taken down one more time at the final horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barber (29-28 Barber)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barber (30-27 Barber)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barber (30-27 Barber)

The Official Result
Maycee Barber def. Karine Silva via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Angelo picks Maycee Barber assuming she is healthy after recent medical issues including a seizure. He considers her the more well-rounded fighter with better striking and athleticism. He notes that if she can defend takedowns, she should win on the feet. However, he expresses uncertainty about her health and the risk of her being rushed back. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds (potential bet)
"Macy Barber is the pick. I hope she's healthy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Big Brady picks Karine Silva, citing Barber's long layoff, mental and physical question marks, and poor takedown defense. He notes Silva's finishing ability and ground game, and expects Silva to win by decision, though he mentions she could win by submission.

Silva by decision
"I'm going to take Silva here to win. ... I'll say Silva wins this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Cody leans toward Barber, citing her power and striking advantage. He notes that Barber has never been submitted and has bullied opponents. He acknowledges concerns about her mental state and layoff but believes she will keep the fight standing and land bigger shots. He is not fully confident due to the narrative noise.

"I see one that actually has like a full complete game right now and we're we're we're humane and hawing about whether she's got a bad boyfriend or what's wrong in in her camp."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Maycee Barber

Connor picks Maycee Barber, citing her improved clinch game and physical strength. He notes that Silva is still the same fighter who relies on opponents' mistakes, while Barber has never been submitted and has shown durability. He believes Barber's physicality and persistence will be too much for Silva.

"I'm going to pick Macy Barber to beat her because it isn't one real thing where I'm like, Oh, Karini Silva's just, she's really turned up as a volume striker or really turned up as a lockdown wrestler."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Lucrative James heavily factors in Maycee Barber's recent medical scare (passing out before a fight) and her history of being taken down. He believes Karine Silva's physicality and black belt jiu-jitsu will lead to a submission, especially early. He notes Barber's cardio advantage but thinks Silva can finish before it becomes a factor. He picks Silva as the underdog.

"I got Karine Silva as the underdog here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Maycee Barber

The host conditions his pick on Barber making weight and looking like her old self. He expects her to be physical enough to keep Silva standing and then use her superior striking to secure a knockout victory.

knockout victory
"As long as all systems are go on the scale for Barber and she looks like her old self, she should be able to add another win... I think she'll be physical enough to keep Silva standing... eventually finding a …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Paul leans toward Silva, citing Barber's takedown defense issues and Silva's submission threat. He notes that Barber has been taken down in her last six fights and Silva has good wrestling and submissions. He is concerned about Barber's mental state and long layoff. He thinks Silva can take Barber down and submit her.

"I feel like Karini is all the way at the bottom as the 13th most confident play."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

The Guru picks Maycee Barber, despite concerns about her motivation. He believes Barber's takedown defense and clinch work will neutralize Silva's submission game. The Guru predicts a TKO finish in round two or three.

TKO finish round two or three
"I'm going to go with Macy Barber by a TKO finish over Karine Silva in round two or three."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Maycee Barber

Zane picks Maycee Barber, noting that Barber has developed a sharp clinch game and is physically strong. He acknowledges Silva's submission threat but points out that Barber has never been submitted and has survived tough spots. Zane believes Barber's physicality and durability give her the edge.

"I got to pick, I got to pick Barbara, but you know, it's a fine fight in that Karini Silva's put together a lot of wins."
WIN vs Dione Barbosa
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karine Silva 0 26 of 70 37% 90 of 154 1 of 3 33% 2 1 2:23
Dione Barbosa 0 31 of 87 35% 67 of 132 3 of 4 75% 1 1 5:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karine Silva 0 10 of 30 33% 11 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Dione Barbosa 0 15 of 41 36% 19 of 47 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:44
2 Karine Silva 0 9 of 18 50% 49 of 68 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
Dione Barbosa 0 7 of 16 43% 23 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:29
3 Karine Silva 0 7 of 22 31% 30 of 55 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:59
Dione Barbosa 0 9 of 30 30% 25 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karine Silva 26 of 70 37% 11 of 50 9 of 14 6 of 6 22 of 66 4 of 4 0 of 0
Dione Barbosa 31 of 87 35% 11 of 62 15 of 19 5 of 6 26 of 80 4 of 5 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karine Silva 10 of 30 33% 6 of 24 3 of 5 1 of 1 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dione Barbosa 15 of 41 36% 4 of 27 7 of 9 4 of 5 15 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Karine Silva 9 of 18 50% 1 of 9 5 of 6 3 of 3 6 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0
Dione Barbosa 7 of 16 43% 4 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 1
3 Karine Silva 7 of 22 31% 4 of 17 1 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dione Barbosa 9 of 30 30% 3 of 23 6 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dione Barbosa vs. Karine Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-218), Barbosa (+180)

Round 1
Moving to the standard fights with no extra stipulations beyond win and move up/lose and move down, Silva (18-5, 4-1 UFC) learned last November about the latter when she lost her nine-fight win streak. Barbosa (8-3, 2-1 UFC) too had a good stretch halted last year, although she turned things around by throttling Diana Belbita. The flyweights will be joined in the cage by referee Rob Madrigal, who observes the countrywomen meeting in the middle without sharing a fist bump.
Silva takes to the center of the cage, and within 15 seconds of inactivity, the crowd is already fussing at the two athletes. Barbosa tosses out a half-hearted low kick to quell the woo birds, and Silva comes back with one-two out of range. Barbosa flicks out a few jabs and parries a front kick, and she comes back to aim a straight shot to the torso. They do not do much other than potshot one another for a good minute until Barbosa steels herself and fires off two heavy punches.
The inactivity generally continues for both ladies, other than the occasional shot from either side as if they are taking turns. Barbosa scores well with body shots, staying just busy enough while Silva is stuck in first gear whiffing. Silva does reach one or two of her strikes, and she fails on a takedown shot and stands back up to get caught with a right hand. Barbosa sneaks in an elbow, and she digs kicks to the body. Silva responds with her own jab to knock her back, and she backpedals but is in a bad spot almost immediately. Barbosa hits a beautiful trip to hurl her countrywoman to the floor, and she zips down to secure the back, get both hooks in and fish for a rear-naked choke. The forearm gets beneath the chin for a moment, but Barbosa bails on it to transition into an armbar. She rolls with the armbar at the last second, and Silva is saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa

Round 2
The Brazilians rush out to meet one another to start the second round, and Silva wants to keep Barbosa away from her early by throwing high kicks in bunches. Silva mixes in a body shot, and she swats down a one-two aimed at her. Barbosa pecks and pokes with her jab, beating Silva to the punch most of the time and keeping her guard up to block the worst of a punch combo. Barbosa uses a knee shield to block body kicks, and she wraps her foot up and around Silva’s head. Silva catches the kick and tackles Barbosa to the floor, with Barbosa not too upset about this decision. Barbosa decides that she does not want to be on her back, so she explodes back up but is still grabbed by Silva. Barbosa turns her foe around and starts kneeing her to the body, grinding out “Killer” on the cage wall.
Barbosa gets off a knee to the body or two before Silva spins her around, and when she gives a knee back, Barbosa spins her about once more. Silva tries to hit a takedown, and Barbosa falls on top of her. Silva lifts her legs up to set up a high guard, and Barbosa stays tightly pressed to her opponent to not give up anything. Silva hunts for a triangle choke and grabs hold of both arms as well, and she starts hacking with elbows while Barbosa is trapped with her arms in. Barbosa stacks Silva up and keeps taking elbows on the top of her head, and she lands a few punches to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 3
Silva walks her adversary down to open the last round, and Barbosa backs off and probes her with jabs. The jabs continue to score as one of the few effective weapons on either side, and when Silva considers bending over for a takedown, Barbosa knees her in the gut a few times. Silva lets go with a big right hand, and she hurls a left after it to get Barbosa’s attention. Another two punches land for Silva, only to take a right hand on the chin in a counter. They tie up, and Barbosa shoulder-throws her foe flat to her back. Silva hits her back and employs rubber guard to wrap her right leg around the back of the neck, and Barbosa lifts her up to slam her out of it. With Silva attempting a surprise Gogoplata as she was slipping her shin around to get under the neck, Barbosa has to scramble suddenly, and she turns to her knees.
“Killer” attacks with a killer power guillotine choke, using it to push Barbosa over in an attempt to get to mount. Barbosa fights out of the submission but is still stuck on her knees, and she elects to roll to her back so she can spin around and find top position. All the while, Silva slashes with elbows until she is placed on her back again. Of the two, Silva is the more active member striking, with Barbosa getting off little more than a couple hammerfists. Barbosa is warned for putting her fingers in the eyes while she smothers Silva’s mouth, and she drops 12-to-6 elbows to the body and chest. Fans are not amused as Barbosa smothers out the rest of the fight, but it is in the books and the lingering question may be how the judges score the second stanza. It could be a close one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (29-28 Barbosa)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (29-28 Barbosa)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (29-28 Barbosa)

The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Dione Barbosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Angelo acknowledges Karine Silva is a strong grappler and a favorite, but notes her takedown defense is lacking and she hasn't finished at the UFC level. He trusts Dione Barbosa's strength, pressure, and ability to stay safe, though he has concerns about her cardio on short notice. He leans toward the dog, calling it an easy plus money bet but says he won't touch it if it becomes -250.

plus money bet, but won't touch if -250
"I'm going to lean the dog. I think Dion Barbosza has a genuine legitimate chance to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Big Brady picks Karine Silva to win by decision. He notes Silva has more power on the feet and is a dangerous grappler, while Barbosa is also a dangerous grappler but Silva is a higher level. He mentions Silva's experience advantage with 23 fights compared to Barbosa's 11, and that Silva has fought tougher competition in the UFC. He acknowledges Silva's last fight against Vivian Araujo wasn't great but thinks Araujo is underrated. He expects Silva to mix in takedowns and land better shots, but doesn't think she'll finish Barbosa due to Barbosa's black belt and decent chin.

Silva by decision
"I'm going to take Silva to win this fight and take her to win this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Dione Barbosa

The host notes this is a rematch from six years ago where Barbosa won. He believes Barbosa will nullify Silva's aggressive BJJ approach, grind her out from top position, and win by decision on short notice.

"I think that we'll see Barbosa nullify the aggressive BJJ approach of Silva, grind her out from that top position and pull off the upset on short notice by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The Guru picks Karine Silva to win, noting that Dione Barbosa is coming off a win but on a quick turnaround without a training camp. He believes Silva will have the advantage due to Barbosa's lack of preparation.

"I'm going to go with Karine Silva to win. Dion Barbosza is coming off a win four months ago by triangle. ... She was not in a training camp for this fight whatsoever."
LOSS vs Viviane Araújo
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 48 of 85 56% 105 of 152 3 of 3 100% 1 0 2:25
Karine Silva 0 58 of 132 43% 76 of 155 1 of 7 14% 1 0 3:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 17 of 30 56% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karine Silva 0 22 of 65 33% 22 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Viviane Araújo 0 14 of 25 56% 49 of 64 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:04
Karine Silva 0 11 of 15 73% 16 of 20 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:37
3 Viviane Araújo 0 17 of 30 56% 36 of 55 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:21
Karine Silva 0 25 of 52 48% 38 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 48 of 85 56% 34 of 70 4 of 5 10 of 10 41 of 76 1 of 1 6 of 8
Karine Silva 58 of 132 43% 26 of 83 10 of 19 22 of 30 45 of 117 11 of 13 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 17 of 30 56% 13 of 26 1 of 1 3 of 3 16 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Karine Silva 22 of 65 33% 10 of 43 1 of 6 11 of 16 21 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Viviane Araújo 14 of 25 56% 11 of 21 1 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 5 of 7
Karine Silva 11 of 15 73% 8 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 2 of 2 2 of 2
3 Viviane Araújo 17 of 30 56% 10 of 23 2 of 2 5 of 5 16 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 1
Karine Silva 25 of 52 48% 8 of 29 7 of 10 10 of 13 17 of 42 8 of 10 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-258), Araujo (+210)

Round 1
It’s a battle of momentum as the main card rails on, with Araujo (12-6, 6-5 UFC) struggling at the upper echelon of the flyweight division as of late. The same cannot be said for the younger Silva (18-4, 4-0 UFC), who has cruised through opposition with three subs in her four UFC wins to date. Referee Marc Goddard draws the charge for this 125-pound contest, and it kicks off as the ladies touch ‘em up. Silva marches forward behind a front kick to start, and she aims it a few more times to keep Araujo away from her. Silva uses it to try to close the distance and wrap up her opponent, but Araujo gets away. Silva slaps her with a leg kick, and a second is met with a one-two. Silva crashes the pocket and gets off a leg kick, and she whiffs with a huge overhand right. Araujo splits the guard with a right hand, and Silva pays it no mind and keeps plodding onward. Silva sticks out a jab, and Araujo puts three punches on her before sliding to the side. Silva crashes forward, and Araujo is able to wriggle away before getting clinched. Silva kicks at the front leg and is countered by her fellow countrywoman, and she keeps chasing until getting tagged with a straight right hand. Silva again shakes off the strong strike and trades a low kick with her foe. Araujo steps to the side and sinks in a right hand around the guard, and she stays away from a number of inaccurate kicks. Silva does reach her with a low kick, and the high kick that follows is easily blocked. Araujo moves from side to side, not falling into a pattern and easily shrugging off a Silva shot. Araujo rings her opponent’s bell with a one-two, and Silva does not slow with her constant kick approach. Silva gets off a left hand, and the swings that follow all go wide. Silva paws out with a big right hand, clubbing “Vivi” on the side of the dome. A second shakes Araujo up further, and Silva stalks her down and hits her a third time. Araujo strikes back, and is warned for outstretched fingers. The horn sounds as Silva rushes into attack, and they crash heads together when Goddard grabs them, resulting in a bloody nose for Araujo.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 2
Silva starts off the round as aggressive as ever, with her front kick immediately drawing more blood from Araujo’s nose. Araujo rushes into action, fighting behind several punch combinations that all connect before Silva can strike back. Araujo hammers the front leg with a kick, and Silva runs towards her and gets hold of her against the fencing. Araujo escapes before absorbing anything of note, but blood is trickling out of that nose quicker than before. Araujo backs Silva off with a one-two, and a second two-strike combo finds the mark as Silva rushes towards her. Silva blasts Araujo in the face with an overhand right, and Araujo backs up into the wall and has no way to escape the second that catches her cleanly. When Silva tries to use the close proximity to take the fight down, Araujo repeatedly grabs the fence to keep herself afloat. Silva sells out for a throw, and Araujo turns her around. Silva uses the body lock to lower Araujo to the floor, her own nose bloodied as well. Araujo gets busy off her back with punches, and she throws her legs up and grabs hold of an armbar. Araujo rolls to her stomach and flips Silva over, and she goes belly-down to almost complete the submission. Silva keeps pushing through it, turning the proper direction to survive the maneuver and reposition herself to side control. With Araujo’s nose busted, she gasps for air with her mouth open. Silva transitions her way to north-south position, and she wraps up a brabo choke when Araujo sits up. Silva rolls to her back to lock things up, and Araujo fights her arms and pushes off the knee to get some space. Araujo turns through it to get into north-south, and she considers wrapping up an armbar or another armlock. Araujo opens it up with several unblocked punches, ending the round sitting on Silva’s face but not in a fun way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 3
The Brazilians hug it out to begin the last round, with scores possibly all over the map. Silva marches forward and shoots in for a takedown with Araujo jabbing her, and the ensuing scramble results in Araujo winding up on top somehow. A bit of blood on both women plus fatigue equals strange positioning. Araujo bails on the position and backs off, allowing Silva to stand. Araujo backs off and lands a low kick and a right hand, and Silva jabs her back in the midsection. Araujo reaches out with a right hand over the top, and Silva’s responses are labored and flailing. Araujo catches a front kick and tosses Silva to her back, with Silva appearing to flop to her back in part due to exhaustion. Silva puts her hands behind her head, with Araujo kicking her legs until Goddard stands her up. Araujo leans back from a head kick to boot Silva in the ribs, and they trade kicks until Araujo drills her with an uppercut. Silva plods forward and absorbs a solid right hand, and she takes a step back and launches several front kicks that all come up short. Araujo kicks the front leg, and she catches a kick her direction and tosses Silva to the mat. Silva again needs Goddard to get between them and let her up, and the fans in the building do not approve of Silva’s strategy. Silva walks into punches and kicks, her face swelling up with a mouse growing on her forehead. Silva’s front kick is swatted away, and she flops to her back. Araujo tells her to stand back up, and she watches Silva’s labored punches soar past her. Silva uses them to get hold of Araujo, and she drives a knee into her jaw. Silva gloms onto her opponent in the clinch, with the occasional knee coming until Araujo head-and-arm throws her to the ground. Silva lands strangely with her head squished against the cage floor and wall, and she is held there until the strange fight closes. Judges may have their hands full here.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (30-27 Araujo)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (29-28 Araujo)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (29-28 Silva)

The Official Result
Viviane Araujo def. Karine Silva via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo picks Karine Silva, noting her powerful grappling and constant submission threats. He acknowledges Viviane Araújo is tough with good takedown defense, but believes Silva will get timely takedowns. He finds the -265 odds too steep to bet and is unsure about prop bets due to Silva's finishing rate.

Angelo says he will likely leave this fight on the table due to the high juice on Silva at -265, and is unsure about betting inside the distance.
"the pick is going to be Kini I think it's going to be a close one"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Big Brady picks Karine Silva, noting that Viviane Araújo is older and slowing down. He acknowledges Araújo's elite takedown defense and good striking volume, but believes Silva has more power and can get takedowns. He thinks Silva's cardio is better than Araújo's, who has slowed in many fights. He predicts a decision win for Silva, though he admits the line is too wide.

"I'll take Silva to win this fight and I'll take her to win this fight by by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Cody picks Karine Silva, citing her grappling advantage and ability to take down and neutralize opponents. He notes Araújo is 38 and has been taken down by lesser grapplers, but Silva's striking is not great and she may struggle to finish. Cody expects a decision win for Silva, possibly by submission if she gets the neck.

"I'll take killer Karin but it's bit of a deep price tag for me personally and I'm not like super over the moon confidence"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Connor also picks Silva, agreeing that she has more dynamic moments and can out-wrestle Araújo. He notes that Araújo's striking is predictable and she struggles against athletic opponents. Connor thinks Silva's reactive takedowns and submission threat will be key.

"I think i'll take silva as well..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Vreeland picks Silva because Araújo has struggled against younger, faster opponents. He notes Araújo's only recent win was over Jennifer Maia due to a speed advantage, but Silva is not slower. Silva has good volume, speed, and grappling, including a dangerous guillotine. Vreeland thinks Silva's all-around game will be too much for Araújo.

"I think speed volume little bit of grappling all gonna be too much for Vivy here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel Vreeland picks Karine Silva, citing her dominance in getting fights to the mat and her submission threats. He acknowledges Araújo's takedown defense and striking output but believes Silva's assertiveness and ability to dictate the pace will lead to a win. He does not confidently predict a submission but expects Silva to control the fight.

"I just think there's a certain dominance and confidence and assertiveness about how karini goes about getting the fights to the mat"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Fox picks Silva, calling her 'killer' and noting she is good everywhere and finishes fights. He agrees with Vreeland that Silva is the better fighter and expects her to win.

"I'm taking uh killer karini Silva as well... she's good everywhere and she you know finishes people everywhere as well"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Lucrative James picks Karine Silva confidently, noting she is on an upward trajectory while Araújo is declining. He believes Silva has sharper BJJ and can capitalize on Araújo's takedown attempts to take the back or snatch a front choke. He also thinks Silva can land a knockdown on the feet, as Araújo gets hurt often. He predicts Silva wins inside the distance, though a close decision is possible. He sees value in Silva at -275 compared to Oliveira at the same odds.

wins inside the distance
"I think Karine Silva can snap up some type of front choke or maybe take the back after a failed shot from aruo."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Karine Silva

The host thinks Silva is not as good as the odds suggest but believes her eventual grappling approach in the second and third rounds will wear out Araújo, who may have early striking success. He predicts Silva grinds it out, possibly getting a submission but officially wins by decision.

submission in second or third round
"Silva I do not think is as good as the odds are making her seem but I think her eventual grappling approach in the second and third rounds is really going to wear out aruo who could have some success …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Paul leans toward Karine Silva but has reservations. He notes Silva's grappling is solid but she lacks ground and pound, and Araújo has never been submitted. Paul thinks the fight could be competitive and might go to a split decision, so he's considering a split decision prop. He's not confident enough to bet heavily.

split decision prop (considered)
"I can see a world where I put lawn top as a PRP pick but uh I'm gonna look at it a few more times before I uh go betting anything with my actual money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo as an underdog, not sold on Karine Silva's hype. He notes Araújo's competitive fights with Natalia Silva and Alexa Grasso, and believes she can survive Silva's grappling. He doubts Silva's finishing ability.

"I'm going to go with uh Vivian arajo I think she's tricking I don't I'm not sold on Karen Silva being this upcoming monster"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Zane picks Silva, noting that both fighters are processless but Silva has more dynamic opportunities. He thinks Silva's speed and opportunistic grappling can catch Araújo, who is one-dimensional and losing athleticism. Zane believes Silva has a better chance of finishing or winning rounds.

"I think in that realm i'm gonna pick carini silva..."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karine Silva 0 42 of 81 51% 89 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:06
Ariane da Silva 0 27 of 75 36% 53 of 120 5 of 6 83% 0 0 7:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karine Silva 0 7 of 13 53% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Ariane da Silva 0 4 of 17 23% 15 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:58
2 Karine Silva 0 9 of 18 50% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 39 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:39
3 Karine Silva 0 26 of 50 52% 47 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Ariane da Silva 0 13 of 38 34% 15 of 42 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karine Silva 42 of 81 51% 12 of 37 22 of 29 8 of 15 31 of 66 8 of 11 3 of 4
Ariane da Silva 27 of 75 36% 8 of 29 9 of 32 10 of 14 21 of 65 2 of 4 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karine Silva 7 of 13 53% 4 of 8 2 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 4
Ariane da Silva 4 of 17 23% 0 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 3 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Karine Silva 9 of 18 50% 1 of 8 4 of 5 4 of 5 9 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 10 of 20 50% 4 of 10 3 of 7 3 of 3 6 of 14 0 of 1 4 of 5
3 Karine Silva 26 of 50 52% 7 of 21 16 of 20 3 of 9 19 of 41 7 of 9 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 13 of 38 34% 4 of 12 4 of 18 5 of 8 11 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ariane Lipski vs. Karine Silva

Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Lipski catches a kick and lands the first punch. Silva lands a jumping kick to the body. Lipski uses her jab and lands a straight right to the body. Silva gets a takedown and winds up in half-guard. Elbows from Silva land. Lipski pushes her opponent off. Silva engages on the ground again and gets into side control. Lipski gives up her neck as Silva is cranking. Lipski gets out of the submission attempt. Silva gets pushed off again, and Lipski gets up. Lipski lands leg kicks and gets into guard. Lipski finishes the round on top, landing a few elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 2
The two fighters exchange leg kicks on the feet. Lipski uses her jab and goes high with a kick. Silva catches a leg and is forced to give it up after Lipski throws a bunch of punches. Silva is able to throw Lipski to the ground. Silva is in half-guard and in full control of Lipski. Some nice elbows are landing for Silva. Lipski goes for a leg lock. Silva defends well. Silva gets to her feet and lands a few leg kicks. Lipski with a good upkick. Silva lands a damaging body kick as Lipski gets up. Silva drags Lipski back to the ground and has her back. Lipski defends well and survives the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 3
Lipski comes out swinging as she knows she needs a finish. Silva slows the pace with some leg kicks. Lipski answers with some body kicks. Silva catches a kick and goes for a takedown. Lipski rips her hands free, but the two are still clinched against the fence. A few knees land for Lipski, who then backs away. Silva throws a front kick. Halfway through the round. Lipski landing more kicks but isn't putting Silva in any danger. They clinch again. Silva is just holding on and not doing any damage. Lipski gets back to her feet, although Silva manages to scramble and take the back. Silva looks for a rear-naked choke as the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva (30-27 Silva)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)

The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Ariane Lipski via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28); R3, 5:00.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo bet Karine Silva at +118 underdog, noting she has 17 wins all by stoppage. He believes she can get the fight to the ground and find a submission or ground-and-pound. He gives credit to Ariane da Silva for improving her grappling and takedown defense, but thinks Karine's finishing ability will be the difference. He is confident she wins and notes the line has since flipped to -140.

Bet: at +118 (now -140)
"I bet bet her at plus 118 ... karini Silva is the pick and hopefully you were a premium member so you saw that bet before the line moved"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Cody picks Lipski as a dog, citing her improved takedown defense (stuffed 19 of 20 attempts in last three fights) and volume striking. He believes she can survive Silva's early submission threats and win a decision, noting she has never been submitted.

"I think Arion lipsky is heading in the right direction now"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel is impressed by Silva's 100% finish rate (17 finishes) and her dangerous ground game, including a rare leg lock. He thinks her striking is hittable but she's confident because she's dangerous on the ground. He believes she will finish Lipski, noting that in women's MMA, such finishing upside is huge.

"I think karini Silva is going to come out here and finish Arian lipsky"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Ariane da Silva has shown improved takedown defense, stuffing all 25 takedown attempts in her last five fights. She should be able to keep the fight standing and use her striking to beat Karine Silva. Karine Silva is dangerous on the ground but has holes in her striking. I lean Ariane da Silva by decision.

"I am going to lean ever so slightly to the lipsky side though as I think that she has a good enough takedown defense game here to keep this fight upright"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Paul also picks Lipski, highlighting her three-fight winning streak as an underdog since moving to American Top Team. He notes her takedown defense and ability to keep fights standing, and expects her volume to outwork Silva over three rounds.

"I'll take lipsky as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The MMA Guru picks Karine Silva, highlighting her consistent finishing ability with five or six submissions in a row. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's wins as over weak competition and notes her submission game is more opportunistic. He believes Silva's ability to force submissions will be the difference, and predicts she will get past da Silva.

"I'm going Karen Silva consistency recent levels of consistency from Karen Silva have superseded ariani lipsky's overall somewhat goodness in fights"
WIN vs Maryna Moroz
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 4:59 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karine Silva 1 30 of 53 56% 52 of 76 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:51
Maryna Moroz 0 16 of 55 29% 25 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karine Silva 1 30 of 53 56% 52 of 76 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:51
Maryna Moroz 0 16 of 55 29% 25 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karine Silva 30 of 53 56% 15 of 31 7 of 9 8 of 13 18 of 40 11 of 12 1 of 1
Maryna Moroz 16 of 55 29% 8 of 41 7 of 12 1 of 2 10 of 47 6 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karine Silva 30 of 53 56% 15 of 31 7 of 9 8 of 13 18 of 40 11 of 12 1 of 1
Maryna Moroz 16 of 55 29% 8 of 41 7 of 12 1 of 2 10 of 47 6 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Maryna Moroz vs. Karine Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-155), Moroz (+130)

Round 1
I’m a sailor peg, and I lost my leg. Climbing up the topsails, I lost my leg! I’m shipping up to Boston, to find my wooden leg. As it turns out, the UFC is also shipping off to Boston, for the first time since UFC on ESPN 6 back in 2019. There may be wooden legs in the TD Garden, but there will absolutely be fights – a dozen, in fact. The first comes in the flyweight division between a pair of action fighters, as Silva (16-4, 2-0 UFC) brings her destructive ways to the table in a revenge match against extremely tough out Moroz (11-4, 6-4 UFC). Combined, the two have 23 stoppages in their 27 pro wins, although all four decisions are on the ledger of the Ukrainian. The action begins without a glove of touch under the watchful eye of referee John English, and instead Silva looks to find her immediate range with kicks high and low. Moroz stays on the outside with a jab stuck out every so often, and she gets in to back Silva off momentarily. Moroz strides forward to land a few strikes, and Silva gives three back in rapid succession. Moroz checks a kick as she resets, and she misses the mark with a head kick by a short distance. Moroz jabs the midsection, and Silva swings back with counters that are just out of reach. Silva peppers the lead leg and waist with kicks, and she loads up with a sharp left hand that intercepts Moroz and knocks her to her seat. Moroz springs back up and clinches up to get her wits back about her. The two jockey for position, and Moroz is the one to separate first as she lands three strikes in rapid succession. Silva lashes out with a head kick, and she catches Moroz with a subsequent combination. Silva surges forward to mix things up, shooting in for a double-leg takedown, and she manages to trip Moroz up and set her down on the mat. Silva passes guard easily to move all the way to north-south position, and she hangs onto Moroz’ neck with her right arm. As Moroz sits up,
Silva jumps guard for a guillotine choke, but “The Iron Lady” steels herself and passes through it to claim top position. Silva is still clinging to the neck, and she stretches Moroz out to reposition herself with the choke and crank it with all her might. There are just seconds left on the clock, and Moroz hangs on and tries to grit it out. The submission is frighteningly tight. On the verge of consciousness, Moroz taps out
, and the horn immediately blows after English intervenes. Silva releases the grip and lets out a shout of victory, and she leaps atop the cage wall to motion to the crowd to celebrate with her. Exacting revenge on a woman that beat her in 2014, Silva becomes the first fighter to ever finish Moroz as a professional.
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The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Maryna Moroz R1 4:59 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo is very confident that Karine Silva will win, citing her powerful takedowns and insane grappling. However, he cautions that Silva's cardio is untested past the first round, as she has only been to a decision once and lost. He worries that if Maryna Moroz keeps the fight standing and tires Silva out, an upset could happen. Despite this, he picks Silva but leaves her out of parlays due to the cardio concern.

"Carini should absolutely win this fight right like very confident pick... but I would be a little worried to bet or parlay Carini because we have no clue what happens if this goes a few rounds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Maryna Moroz

Big Brady picks Maryna Moroz to win by late second-round submission, trusting her durability and cardio over Karine Silva's early danger. He notes Silva is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with 19 finishes in 20 wins, but her cardio is suspect and she tires in later rounds. Moroz has never been finished in 15 fights, and Brady believes she can weather the early storm, extend the fight, and submit Silva as she tires.

win by submission, round 2
"I'm gonna take Marina Rose here to win this fight... I'll say she wins it by late second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Maryna Moroz

Cody likes Moroz as a plus-money underdog due to her boxing and takedown defense. He notes Silva has had bad spots and may fatigue if she doesn't get a quick submission. Moroz has a high work rate and keeps fights competitive.

"I would take the flyer plus money on Marina morose super inactive but an excellent boxer"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel Levi picks Karine Silva, believing she is hungry to avenge her 2014 loss and has shown advanced submissions. He notes that Moroz has never been finished and has good submission defense, but Silva is stronger now and can take her down. Levi is not confident and predicts Silva by submission, but acknowledges it could be a decision. He also bet the over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds; Silva by submission
"I'm gonna go Carini Silva here... I think she's gonna take her down and get her with something along the way"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Maryna Moroz

Lucrative James likes the underdog Maryna Moroz here, citing her superior strength of schedule and experience against high-level competition like Buena Silva and Maria Agapova. He notes that Karine Silva has never won a decision and tends to finish or get finished, while Moroz has never been submitted. He believes the odds are off and that Moroz should not be an underdog.

"I do like the underdog in this fight and it is Marina morose"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Maryna Moroz

Moroz is the better technical striker and should be able to land from distance. She has defensive grappling to avoid Silva's submission threats and will likely win rounds with striking. Silva's striking is limited to setting up takedowns, but Moroz can nullify control time. Expect a close fight early but Moroz pulls away on the scorecards.

"I expect this to be a little bit close early but as we start to get down the stretch I expect marozza's striking to Prevail here and I think she ends up winning this fight by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The MMA Guru picks Karine Silva but calls it a tricky pick. He notes Silva's first-round finishes and believes she has improved since her earlier loss to Moroz by armbar. He thinks Silva is the more talented, younger, and improving fighter with momentum. However, he acknowledges Moroz's win over Mayra Bueno Silva and the unpredictability of women's MMA, making him hesitant.

submission early
"I'm gonna go with Karine Silva getting this one done by submission early on"
WIN vs Ketlen Souza
Submission (kneebar) R1 1:45 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karine Silva 0 3 of 10 30% 4 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:21
Ketlen Souza 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karine Silva 0 3 of 10 30% 4 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:21
Ketlen Souza 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karine Silva 3 of 10 30% 1 of 6 0 of 2 2 of 2 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 3
Ketlen Souza 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karine Silva 3 of 10 30% 1 of 6 0 of 2 2 of 2 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 3
Ketlen Souza 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Karine Silva vs. Ketlen Souza
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-225), Souza (+190)

Round 1
Two Brazilian flyweights will come to blows for this next encounter, as Silva (15-4, 1-0 UFC) hopes to keep her 100% stoppage rate intact at the expense of former Invicta champ Souza (13-3, 0-0 UFC). While Silva is an equal opportunity finisher, the majority of the debuting Souza’s victories have come due to strikes or an opponent saying “no mas.” The ladies will be joined in the cage by Octagon overseer Chris Tognoni, and they introduce themselves to one another with a glove touch. Silva leads the dance with a few low kicks from both legs, and she aims one to the side before lunging ahead with punches. The ladies end up in the clinch, and Silva is quick to muscle Souza right down to the floor. Silva moves to half guard, while Souza defends from her side instead of laying flat on her back. Souza recovers guard as she takes an elbow to the dome, and Souza lines up a big left from her back only to get blasted with a response.
Silva drops to her back out of nowhere hunting for a leglock, and she places her foe’s ankle beneath her armpit. Before she focuses on the ankle or Achilles, Silva cranks the knee to the side calmly but viciously. Souza’s knee completely blows out as Silva torques it, in what is not quite a kneebar or an Achilles lock, as kneebars tend to hyperextend the knee and not wrench it to the side laterally. Souza immediately grimaces in pain and taps out, tendons and ligaments having snapped and popped like overtuned guitar strings.
Silva releases the grip to get up and celebrate, while Souza needs help standing up. Souza is aided getting out of the cage, her knee totally thrashed, and she could be facing a lengthy layoff. Silva, however, validates her “Killer” nickname with the nasty sub, and her finish rate remains a scary 100%.

The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Ketlen Souza R1 1:45 via Submission (Kneebar)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo picks Silva, citing her powerful grappling and 15 stoppage wins. He thinks Souza is too committed to her strikes, which will leave her open to takedowns. He is concerned Silva has never been to a decision and may fade late, but still expects her to win. He has bets on Silva.

"Carini Silva should win this fight but I did not throw her in the safety parlay because man I wouldn't be surprised if she comes out aggressive starts to slow down"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Cody is hesitant on Silva at -225. He notes Silva's wrestling and physical strength could lead to a grappling match, which favors her. However, he questions whether Silva's wins over lower-level competition justify the price. He thinks Souza could be a decent prospect but is unsure how quickly she can adapt. Cody doesn't feel confident enough to bet Silva at this price.

"I think she looks really good don't get me wrong wrong I think she uses the wrestling but is it enough for you to jump in at this two to one price tag like ah I got some hesitancy there"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Connor picks Silva, noting that she is more durable and has better grappling. He points out that Souza has been TKO'd by kicks before and is likely a strawweight. Connor believes Silva's single-strike power and takedown ability will be enough to win a slow-paced fight.

Mentions the line is too wide; Silva is not a fighter to trust to dominate.
"I think that, you know, at some point that'll probably just, it'll be slow paced one shot at a time for both of them."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel picks Karine Silva, noting that both fighters are finishers but Silva has a 100% finish rate. He sees Souza's lack of takedown defense as a major vulnerability, and Silva's improving striking and grappling should lead to a finish. However, he doesn't have a bet on it, calling it a dog-or-pass.

"I'm gonna lean Carini Silva no no action for me"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Jacob picks Silva, believing her ground game will be too much for Souza. He notes Souza stays on her back and doesn't work to get up, which plays into Silva's strengths. Jacob thinks Silva's striking defense is sound and she will get takedowns and look for finishes. He likes Silva for future fights but expects her to win here.

"Silva wants to be on the ground she wants to get finishes on the ground and when she strikes she stays very sound defensively"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Silva is aggressive and prefers grappling, with most of her wins by submission. Souza is a mobile striker with good kicks but questionable takedown defense. Silva will use a grapple-heavy approach, but Souza is active off her back, so the fight may go over 2.5 rounds. Silva wins by decision.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'm gonna go with Karen considering her higher level of competition and just her aggressive fighting style and I think she wins this fight by decision over two and a half probably the best spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Paul picks the underdog Ketlen Souza at +190. He notes the price is too big on Karine Silva due to unknowns about Souza's UFC debut. He mentions Souza's recent improvements, including a spinning back kick win in Invicta. However, he acknowledges Souza is uncomfortable on her back, which is Silva's path to victory. Paul is hesitant and says he'll pass on betting this fight.

"I ran this one through the CF dot model and it uh it said pass so that's what I'm gonna end up doing the purpose of this show I'll uh I'll pick the underdog at plus 190"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The MMA Guru confidently picks Karine Silva, citing her massive finishing potential and experience in the UFC. He notes Silva has four first-round finishes in a row, including against Pollyanna Botelho, while Souza has mostly decisions against lower-level opponents. He believes Silva will hurt Souza on the feet and then secure a submission, likely a choke. He thinks if it goes to decision, Silva still wins.

Silva by submission
"I'm gonna go with Karine silver... I think another no-brainer of a pick here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Zane picks Silva, citing her better grappling and durability. He notes that Silva has solid wrestling and submission skills, while Souza is more one-dimensional and positionally sacrificial. Zane expects Silva to win the grappling exchanges and outwork Souza in a slow-paced kickboxing match.

Mentions the line is too wide; Silva is not a fighter to trust to dominate.
"I'm just going to pick if they clinch up Carini Silva's bigger one."
Submission (D'Arce choke) R1 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karine Silva 0 17 of 68 25% 23 of 75 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:47
Poliana Botelho 0 19 of 26 73% 19 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karine Silva 0 17 of 68 25% 23 of 75 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:47
Poliana Botelho 0 19 of 26 73% 19 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karine Silva 17 of 68 25% 9 of 49 5 of 8 3 of 11 12 of 63 0 of 0 5 of 5
Poliana Botelho 19 of 26 73% 10 of 17 6 of 6 3 of 3 19 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karine Silva 17 of 68 25% 9 of 49 5 of 8 3 of 11 12 of 63 0 of 0 5 of 5
Poliana Botelho 19 of 26 73% 10 of 17 6 of 6 3 of 3 19 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Poliana Botelho vs. Karine Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-125), Botelho (+105)

Round 1
The final women’s bout of the day comes at flyweight, when two absolute finishers collide in search of a crucial UFC win. Signed off of the 2021 season of DWCS, Silva (14-4, 0-0 UFC) maintains a perfect 100% stoppage rate, with none of her wins coming after the second round. She will have her hands full of powerful countrywoman Botelho (8-4, 3-3 UFC), who on her own right celebrates 75% of her victories by knockout. Referee Chris Tognoni is prepared for whether this fight goes 15 seconds or 15 minutes, and there is no chance of gloves touching as these two are fired up. Botelho starts off with a few kicks, and Silva mimics them although they come up short. Silva stays busy with push kicks from a distance, and even though they don’t land, they keep Botelho off of her. Botelho sits down on a leg kick, and Silva gives one right back to her, as if this were a mirror match thus far. Two identical kicks from the women land at the same time, and Botelho follows with two more as Silva is still trying to get her bearings. It’s primarily a kick fight thus far, as the punches are coming up short from each Brazilian. Silva goes up high with a kick, and she lets go with another as she starts putting punches between the kicks to mix things up. A few jabs succeed from “Killer Karine,” who begins to pick up the pace and chip away as Botelho comes forward without throwing much offense. Silva lands at the end of a right hand, and she is loading up on the strikes, but Botelho is largely able to avoid or dodge the worst of them. Botelho catches Silva coming up with an uppercut, but it is one-and-done as Silva paws out a jab and a front kick of her own. The Silva jab misses the mark a few times, and Botelho goes to the body with a left. Silva strides forward with an overhand right, and she knocks Botelho over and tackles her down to the ground, not letting the knockdown completely register. Silva unleashes a barrage of speedy hammerfists, and she settles to get hold of an arm-triangle from on top.
Botelho sits up and finds herself in brabo choke danger, and Silva rolls her to the side and sets up this maneuver. Botelho twists and looks to free her neck and sit up to ride out the round, but Silva locks her down and cranks so that there is no escape. The crushing choke forces Botelho to surrender,
and Silva has now made a splash in the UFC while maintaining her 100% finish rate with an impressive submission. Her brabo choke is just the second in UFC women’s divisional history, with the first coming from Tatiana Suarez in 2016.

The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Poliana Botelho R1 4:55 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo describes Karine Silva as a powerful grappler who constantly works for submissions, with all 14 wins by stoppage. Poliana Botelho is a creative striker but with poor fight IQ. Angelo believes Silva will take Botelho down and control her, similar to how Gillian Robertson won. He already placed a moneyline bet on Silva at -115.

moneyline bet on Silva at -115
"karine is the pick and i already threw a moneyline bet on her at 115"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Big Brady picks Karine Silva to win by first-round submission. He notes Silva has a 100% finish rate and is very dangerous on the ground with submissions like heel hooks and armbars. He points out that Botelho has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers like Calvillo and Robertson, and thinks Silva will get her to the mat and finish her. He warns that if the fight goes past the first round, Botelho could win due to Silva's cardio issues, but expects an early finish.

Silva by submission, round 1
"I think she kind of kind of runs through his battalion here i think she takes her down gets on top whether it's ground and pounds submission i think she finishes battalion the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Cody provides a detailed analysis, highlighting Botelho's cardio and size issues, and Silva's composed performance against Qiu Yuyan. He believes Silva's striking, wrestling, and grappling are superior, and that she will win via decision or submission.

"i would look to uh to go with the uh killer killer kareem silva side"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel Levi picks Karine Silva, believing the line is too short and that Silva's aggression and finishing ability will overwhelm Botelho, who has a history of gassing. He compares Silva to Melissa Gatto and thinks she will get a finish, making the current price a value. He plans to bet Silva straight moneyline, not in a parlay.

Silva moneyline straight bet
"that is actually all my betting card is going to be korean silva moneyline while i would say i'm a little bit scared of the gas tank like you stated a little bit i just think this line is a …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Paul picks Silva, citing her size, strength, and recent improvements. He notes Botelho's struggles at flyweight and her lack of striking combinations. He thinks Silva can win on the feet or via grappling and likes the price.

"skill size all that weight to wayne's if you want it seems like silva's gonna have a crack at it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The MMA Guru picks Karine Silva to win by submission in the first or second round. He notes Silva's good wins on the contender series and her momentum. He criticizes Botelho's recent losses and believes Silva's grappling and aggression will be decisive. He makes crude remarks about Silva's appearance but ultimately trusts her skills.

Submission in the first or second round
"definitely going to go with karine silva i reckon she gets this one done by submission in the first or second round"
Dione Barbosa - Fight History
SCHED vs Veronica Hardy
UFC Fight Night 281 · Jul 18, 2026
WIN vs Melissa Gatto
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dione Barbosa 0 30 of 67 44% 108 of 154 3 of 6 50% 1 1 6:06
Melissa Gatto 0 33 of 67 49% 64 of 109 3 of 12 25% 0 1 4:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dione Barbosa 0 16 of 37 43% 35 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:15
Melissa Gatto 0 21 of 48 43% 27 of 59 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:11
2 Dione Barbosa 0 9 of 20 45% 34 of 51 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:20
Melissa Gatto 0 5 of 7 71% 23 of 30 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:55
3 Dione Barbosa 0 5 of 10 50% 39 of 45 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:31
Melissa Gatto 0 7 of 12 58% 14 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dione Barbosa 30 of 67 44% 19 of 53 9 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 49 5 of 7 9 of 11
Melissa Gatto 33 of 67 49% 14 of 40 9 of 15 10 of 12 30 of 62 2 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dione Barbosa 16 of 37 43% 12 of 31 2 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 30 3 of 5 1 of 2
Melissa Gatto 21 of 48 43% 7 of 26 7 of 13 7 of 9 20 of 45 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dione Barbosa 9 of 20 45% 6 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
Melissa Gatto 5 of 7 71% 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Dione Barbosa 5 of 10 50% 1 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 5
Melissa Gatto 7 of 12 58% 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dione Barbosa vs. Melissa Gatto
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barbosa (-145); Gatto (+125)

Round 1
The night presses on as a pair of women’s flyweights meet in hopes of keeping or lifting their respective promotional record above .500. Barbosa (8-4, 2-2 UFC) would like a victory to elevate it over that midpoint mark, while bantamweight part-timer Gatto (9-2-2, 3-2 UFC) is looking for success back in her natural weight class. Referee Chris Tognoni draws the charge for this preliminary contest, one that does not open with a glove touch.
The ladies measure one another in the early going, testing out their jabs while not committing to much else. Gatto opens up a bit more with her overhand right, and when she finally scores one, she has to back off when a one-two pinpoints her nose. Gatto slings her right hand down the pipe, faking a takedown shot and ultimately walk into a spinning back kick counter. Barbosa gets her attention with a left hand after the kick connects, and she is greeted with a stern right hand. Barbosa shakes it off and offers a low kick followed by two punches, and the two start trading hands in a brief exchange with Barbosa landing at the beginning and ending. Gatto works her way behind her right hand, and she shoots in for takedown that is shut down before it can come close to materializing.
Barbosa bullies the taller woman to the wall, pressing her shoulder tightly before kneeing her a couple times to the stomach. Barbosa trips Gatto up to drag her to the floor, and Gatto springs back up with the fencing behind her. Barbosa stomps Gatto’s toes, and Gatto breaks off with a knee. Gatto takes a punch and times the spin she sees coming to grab Barbosa from behind and wrangle her to the mat. Gatto advances to an awkward position that places her in leglock danger, but she is close to securing the mount position. Barbosa hacks with elbows off her back, and she uses butterfly hooks to stave Gatto from claiming a dominant posture. Gatto lowers herself down maintain control, and Barbosa’s leg slides up an around to snatch up an armbar. Gatto leans to her side to free the pressure on her limb, and she drills Barbosa with a number of hammerfists as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gatto
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gatto
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gatto

Round 2
Gatto assumes control of the center of the cage to get going first, pushing out her jab a few times before snatching up a Barbosa low kick to trip her up and take her to the mat. Barbosa flips her all the way over to wind up on top, and Gatto is stuck flat on her back. Gatto keeps a high guard when Barbosa postures up, but Barbosa does not fall into a trap and stands back up. Gatto turns to her knees to stand back up, and Barbosa blasts her with an illegal soccer kick to the neck and chin that knocks Gatto completely out. Barbosa walks off celebrating, as if she thinks that she has won the fight, while Gatto is splayed out lifelessly in an eerie scene reminiscent of Maycee Barber getting knocked out last week. As a medical professional or two rush in to tend to Gatto, she comes to and has to be told what happened. The replay official flips the light to signal that they are going to use instant replay to review the footage, but it appeared that Gatto’s knee was down right before she took the soccer kick that rendered her unconscious. Tognoni discusses his options with the officiating team, and he deducts one point from Barbosa for the foul. Shockingly, the fight somehow continues, even though Gatto was knocked unconscious from the strike. This is complete nonsense. This fight should be over, period. What happened to fighter safety being the primary concern of officials? Gatto, who apparently is back with her wits again, runs forward at the restart to take the fight down. Barbosa is grounded for a time before fighting her way back up, and she turns the tables to take Gatto down.
Gatto works her way up after absorbing some hammerfists, and she breaks out of the clinch to take a spinning back fist on the chin. Gatto shakes it out and tackles Barbosa to the floor. Thankfully, with Gatto on top, it means she is not currently absorbing much brain trauma after being knocked out from the illegal soccer kick that only resulted in a single point being deducted. Barbosa fights off her back with a high guard in hopes of catching Gatto in something, and she grips hold of a triangle armbar but is punched out of it. The round somehow ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 9-9
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 9-9
Tyler Treese scores the round: 9-9

Round 3
Between rounds, it is explained that the officials and medical staff determined Gatto was able to continue a fistfight despite already getting knocked all the way out. What are rules anymore? It does not take long for the ladies to go for grappling, and Barbosa succeeds in taking Gatto to the mat. Gatto keeps her left leg wrapped on the side in hopes of setting something up, and Barbosa ignores it and starts elbowing her in the side. Gatto turns to her side with a two-on-one wrist control of Barbosa, who counters her by rolling all the way over to snatch up an armbar.
Gatto turns over to stack Barboza up, squeezing her elbow and forearm on the throat while exerting as much pressure down as she can to stifle the submission. Barbosa cannot hold the submission much longer as she is getting squished, and Gatto breaks out of it and busts her in the chops with a strong right hand. Barbosa sits up and flips her opponent over to her back, and she starts hunting for a leglock. Gatto sits up to stop it, and she tries to muscle Barbosa over and use a kimura grip to reverse position. She succeeds in turning Barbosa over and keeps control of the limb, and she steps over the body with her rear leg to establish herself in top control. As the ladies roll around on the mat looking for positional advantages, Gatto snags hold of the left arm of her opponent to hunt for her own armbar. Barbosa elbows Gatto on the back of the calf, and this fight somehow makes it 15 minutes. This is not a good day for the Nevada State Athletic Commission. A draw may be in play, but that depends on the scoring of the first round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (28-28)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (28-28)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (28-28)

The Official Result
Dione Barbosa def. Melissa Gatto via Majority Decision (28-28, 29-27, 29-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Angelo picks Dione Barbosa, citing her superior takedown ability as a judoka. He notes that Melissa Gatto has poor takedowns and that Barbosa can close the distance, take her down, and control on top. He worries about potential judging bias similar to Barbosa's last loss but believes Barbosa will win a close decision.

"Dion Barbosa is going to be the pick. We probably end up in a 2928 type situation."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Big Brady picks Melissa Gatto as a slight underdog. He notes Barbosa has power and can get takedowns early, but fades as the fight goes on. He likes Gatto's cardio, volume, and kicks, and expects her to take over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for Gatto.

Gatto by decision
"I'll take Gatto here. I like the cardio, I like the kicks, I like the volume."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Cody picks Gatto, citing her youth, improved skills, and ability to scramble and strike. He expects her to win a decision, as Barbosa's grappling-heavy style may not score well.

"It's got by decision for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Connor leans toward Barbosa, agreeing that she is more disciplined. He notes that Gatto's footwork is worse and she tends to collapse when pressured, leading her to wrestle. Barbosa is as big as Gatto and a better grappler, which should neutralize Gatto's advantages.

Barbosa opened +105, now -127; Gatto opened -125, now +107.
"Barboza actually has some a little bit of boxing footwork... Gatto just doesn't know how to like keep herself lined up."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

James leans toward Melissa Gatto as the underdog, citing her striking kicks and cardio advantage, while noting Barbosa's tendency to tire. He admits he hasn't done tape study and is unsure about the grappling dynamics. He predicts a decision win for Gatto but emphasizes low confidence and the need for further analysis.

"I'll say Melissa Gate. She's the underdog. I lean to the underdog in a fight like this where I think it's very close."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The host picks Gatto as a dog, citing her damage-based striking and grappling advantage. He notes Barbosa's recent loss where control wasn't enough, and trusts Gatto's volume and damage to win on the scorecards despite a two-year layoff. He sees a good stylistic matchup for Gatto.

"I feel like Gateau is the perfect dog to start off this card."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Paul leans towards Gatto, noting her two-year layoff may have helped her improve. He expects her to win a close decision due to her striking and scrambling.

"I do have Melissa God. I think Melissa is a decent fighter."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Dione Barbosa

The MMA Guru picks Dione Barbosa but seems hesitant, acknowledging that her win over Diana Belbita isn't impressive. He notes that Melissa Gatto has a body kick KO win but lost to Tracy Cortez. He thinks Barbosa is slightly more well-rounded but doesn't sound fully convinced.

"I think she'll win this one, though. I think she'll beat Melissa Gatto, okay? Don't grill me on it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Zane leans toward Barbosa, noting she is more disciplined and has better footwork. He thinks Gatto has good tools but doesn't stick to them, and tends to win when opponents make catastrophic mistakes. Barbosa's boxing footwork and grappling should allow her to keep the fight in her favor.

Barbosa opened +105, now -127; Gatto opened -125, now +107.
"I'm tempted to pick Barboza. I think she's a little more... she's just a more disciplined fighter."
LOSS vs Karine Silva
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karine Silva 0 26 of 70 37% 90 of 154 1 of 3 33% 2 1 2:23
Dione Barbosa 0 31 of 87 35% 67 of 132 3 of 4 75% 1 1 5:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karine Silva 0 10 of 30 33% 11 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Dione Barbosa 0 15 of 41 36% 19 of 47 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:44
2 Karine Silva 0 9 of 18 50% 49 of 68 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
Dione Barbosa 0 7 of 16 43% 23 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:29
3 Karine Silva 0 7 of 22 31% 30 of 55 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:59
Dione Barbosa 0 9 of 30 30% 25 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karine Silva 26 of 70 37% 11 of 50 9 of 14 6 of 6 22 of 66 4 of 4 0 of 0
Dione Barbosa 31 of 87 35% 11 of 62 15 of 19 5 of 6 26 of 80 4 of 5 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karine Silva 10 of 30 33% 6 of 24 3 of 5 1 of 1 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dione Barbosa 15 of 41 36% 4 of 27 7 of 9 4 of 5 15 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Karine Silva 9 of 18 50% 1 of 9 5 of 6 3 of 3 6 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0
Dione Barbosa 7 of 16 43% 4 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 1
3 Karine Silva 7 of 22 31% 4 of 17 1 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dione Barbosa 9 of 30 30% 3 of 23 6 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dione Barbosa vs. Karine Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-218), Barbosa (+180)

Round 1
Moving to the standard fights with no extra stipulations beyond win and move up/lose and move down, Silva (18-5, 4-1 UFC) learned last November about the latter when she lost her nine-fight win streak. Barbosa (8-3, 2-1 UFC) too had a good stretch halted last year, although she turned things around by throttling Diana Belbita. The flyweights will be joined in the cage by referee Rob Madrigal, who observes the countrywomen meeting in the middle without sharing a fist bump.
Silva takes to the center of the cage, and within 15 seconds of inactivity, the crowd is already fussing at the two athletes. Barbosa tosses out a half-hearted low kick to quell the woo birds, and Silva comes back with one-two out of range. Barbosa flicks out a few jabs and parries a front kick, and she comes back to aim a straight shot to the torso. They do not do much other than potshot one another for a good minute until Barbosa steels herself and fires off two heavy punches.
The inactivity generally continues for both ladies, other than the occasional shot from either side as if they are taking turns. Barbosa scores well with body shots, staying just busy enough while Silva is stuck in first gear whiffing. Silva does reach one or two of her strikes, and she fails on a takedown shot and stands back up to get caught with a right hand. Barbosa sneaks in an elbow, and she digs kicks to the body. Silva responds with her own jab to knock her back, and she backpedals but is in a bad spot almost immediately. Barbosa hits a beautiful trip to hurl her countrywoman to the floor, and she zips down to secure the back, get both hooks in and fish for a rear-naked choke. The forearm gets beneath the chin for a moment, but Barbosa bails on it to transition into an armbar. She rolls with the armbar at the last second, and Silva is saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa

Round 2
The Brazilians rush out to meet one another to start the second round, and Silva wants to keep Barbosa away from her early by throwing high kicks in bunches. Silva mixes in a body shot, and she swats down a one-two aimed at her. Barbosa pecks and pokes with her jab, beating Silva to the punch most of the time and keeping her guard up to block the worst of a punch combo. Barbosa uses a knee shield to block body kicks, and she wraps her foot up and around Silva’s head. Silva catches the kick and tackles Barbosa to the floor, with Barbosa not too upset about this decision. Barbosa decides that she does not want to be on her back, so she explodes back up but is still grabbed by Silva. Barbosa turns her foe around and starts kneeing her to the body, grinding out “Killer” on the cage wall.
Barbosa gets off a knee to the body or two before Silva spins her around, and when she gives a knee back, Barbosa spins her about once more. Silva tries to hit a takedown, and Barbosa falls on top of her. Silva lifts her legs up to set up a high guard, and Barbosa stays tightly pressed to her opponent to not give up anything. Silva hunts for a triangle choke and grabs hold of both arms as well, and she starts hacking with elbows while Barbosa is trapped with her arms in. Barbosa stacks Silva up and keeps taking elbows on the top of her head, and she lands a few punches to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 3
Silva walks her adversary down to open the last round, and Barbosa backs off and probes her with jabs. The jabs continue to score as one of the few effective weapons on either side, and when Silva considers bending over for a takedown, Barbosa knees her in the gut a few times. Silva lets go with a big right hand, and she hurls a left after it to get Barbosa’s attention. Another two punches land for Silva, only to take a right hand on the chin in a counter. They tie up, and Barbosa shoulder-throws her foe flat to her back. Silva hits her back and employs rubber guard to wrap her right leg around the back of the neck, and Barbosa lifts her up to slam her out of it. With Silva attempting a surprise Gogoplata as she was slipping her shin around to get under the neck, Barbosa has to scramble suddenly, and she turns to her knees.
“Killer” attacks with a killer power guillotine choke, using it to push Barbosa over in an attempt to get to mount. Barbosa fights out of the submission but is still stuck on her knees, and she elects to roll to her back so she can spin around and find top position. All the while, Silva slashes with elbows until she is placed on her back again. Of the two, Silva is the more active member striking, with Barbosa getting off little more than a couple hammerfists. Barbosa is warned for putting her fingers in the eyes while she smothers Silva’s mouth, and she drops 12-to-6 elbows to the body and chest. Fans are not amused as Barbosa smothers out the rest of the fight, but it is in the books and the lingering question may be how the judges score the second stanza. It could be a close one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (29-28 Barbosa)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (29-28 Barbosa)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (29-28 Barbosa)

The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Dione Barbosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Angelo acknowledges Karine Silva is a strong grappler and a favorite, but notes her takedown defense is lacking and she hasn't finished at the UFC level. He trusts Dione Barbosa's strength, pressure, and ability to stay safe, though he has concerns about her cardio on short notice. He leans toward the dog, calling it an easy plus money bet but says he won't touch it if it becomes -250.

plus money bet, but won't touch if -250
"I'm going to lean the dog. I think Dion Barbosza has a genuine legitimate chance to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Big Brady picks Karine Silva to win by decision. He notes Silva has more power on the feet and is a dangerous grappler, while Barbosa is also a dangerous grappler but Silva is a higher level. He mentions Silva's experience advantage with 23 fights compared to Barbosa's 11, and that Silva has fought tougher competition in the UFC. He acknowledges Silva's last fight against Vivian Araujo wasn't great but thinks Araujo is underrated. He expects Silva to mix in takedowns and land better shots, but doesn't think she'll finish Barbosa due to Barbosa's black belt and decent chin.

Silva by decision
"I'm going to take Silva to win this fight and take her to win this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Dione Barbosa

The host notes this is a rematch from six years ago where Barbosa won. He believes Barbosa will nullify Silva's aggressive BJJ approach, grind her out from top position, and win by decision on short notice.

"I think that we'll see Barbosa nullify the aggressive BJJ approach of Silva, grind her out from that top position and pull off the upset on short notice by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The Guru picks Karine Silva to win, noting that Dione Barbosa is coming off a win but on a quick turnaround without a training camp. He believes Silva will have the advantage due to Barbosa's lack of preparation.

"I'm going to go with Karine Silva to win. Dion Barbosza is coming off a win four months ago by triangle. ... She was not in a training camp for this fight whatsoever."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 4:13 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diana Belbiţă 0 20 of 69 28% 23 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dione Barbosa 0 27 of 50 54% 35 of 58 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diana Belbiţă 0 20 of 69 28% 23 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dione Barbosa 0 27 of 50 54% 35 of 58 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diana Belbiţă 20 of 69 28% 6 of 43 6 of 17 8 of 9 20 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dione Barbosa 27 of 50 54% 23 of 46 2 of 2 2 of 2 25 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diana Belbiţă 20 of 69 28% 6 of 43 6 of 17 8 of 9 20 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dione Barbosa 27 of 50 54% 23 of 46 2 of 2 2 of 2 25 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dione Barbosa vs. Diana Belbita
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barbosa (-500), Belbita (+340)

Round 1
Of all the fights tonight, this one will see the widest betting line between favorite and underdog. Having won just twice in seven UFC offerings, it makes some sense that Belbita (15-9, 2-5 UFC) should serve with plus money, but +625 is where she stands. About to close as one of the most heavily favored UFC fighters this year, Barbosa (7-3, 1-1 UFC) is expected to power through while accompanied by -1000 odds. Never tell “Warrior Princess” the odds. Referee Keith Peterson will be the overseer for this flyweight contest, one that opens up with a respectful clap of hands and no nonsense in sight. They both lob low kicks at one another and pull them back. Barbosa strikes first with a jab, and she skirts away from the counter. The Brazilian scores an overhand right, and Belbita is there to pay her back this time with a long left and a ripping left to the body. She goes for the body shot a few more times, ignoring what Barbosa puts on her to connect cleanly. The face of “Warrior Princess” ducks into punches and throws back in hopes of clipping Barbosa with a counter. Barbosa parries a head kick, and she races back to avoid several punches chained into a head kick. Barbosa flashes her jab, and she stays in the pocket too long and gets popped with an overhand right. Belbita attacks the body again, making sure to fighting in flurries, and she times another big right hand up top. Belbita ends a combo with a low kick, and she absorbs anything the Brazilian hurls at her without batting an eye. Belbita goes to the body, opening up an overhand right to the head. She jams the ball of her foot on Barbosa’s stomach, and dings her with a few right hands. Barbosa pressures her against the fencing and spins with an elbow that clips her. When Belbita leans over to try to shake it off, Barbosa hits the level change she suddenly wants and lands practically in full mount.
Barbosa leans her weight down, and she locks up an arm-triangle choke before long. Belbita pumps her hips back and forth, but she cannot buck the Brazilian off of her. As Barbosa presses down with all she has, Belbita has no choice but to surrender.
Just like that, Barbosa lifts her submission rate as a pro to 50%, while landing the first arm-triangle of her career.

The Official Result
Dione Barbosa def. Diana Belbita R1 4:13 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Angelo is very confident that Dione Barbosa will dominate Diana Belbiţă. He highlights Dione's Judo background and grappling, while noting Diana has zero power, low fight IQ, and has been vocal about not caring about her career. He believes Diana is just showing up for a paycheck and will get bullied in all exchanges. Angelo calls it a 'mly whopping' and says Dione runs through her.

"I think deani Barbosa runs through di Bita I don't think it's competitive at all I think she beats the absolute [__] out of her."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Big Brady is very confident in Dione Barbosa, citing her judo and BJJ black belts against Diana Belbiţă, who has been submitted five times. He believes Barbosa will take the fight to the ground and submit Belbiţă, likely via rear-naked choke or armbar in the first round.

first round submission
"give me Barbosa give me Barbosa by by first round submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Barbosa's BJJ prowess and Belbiţă's poor takedown defense will lead to Barbosa finding a submission. The pick is a lean based on grappling advantage.

submission
"I have to lean with the BJJ prowess of Barbosa and the poor takedown defense of Bita which will lead to Barbosa eventually finding that submission and getting the tap."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

The Guru picks Dione Barbosa based on physicality, strength, and power, contrasting her muscular build with Diana Belbiţă's lack of snap or pop. He believes Belbiţă cannot impose damage on anyone and that Barbosa will be too strong and powerful, likely getting takedowns and finishing inside the distance.

Dione Barbosa wins inside the distance
"Dion Barbosa is going to be too strong, too big, too powerful. She takes out Dannabel Bea inside the distance."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miranda Maverick 0 30 of 88 34% 102 of 188 2 of 5 40% 0 0 8:07
Dione Barbosa 0 21 of 52 40% 47 of 85 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miranda Maverick 0 16 of 45 35% 31 of 67 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:02
Dione Barbosa 0 7 of 21 33% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Miranda Maverick 0 7 of 28 25% 30 of 60 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:26
Dione Barbosa 0 7 of 16 43% 11 of 20 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:43
3 Miranda Maverick 0 7 of 15 46% 41 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:39
Dione Barbosa 0 7 of 15 46% 22 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miranda Maverick 30 of 88 34% 9 of 55 7 of 15 14 of 18 23 of 77 2 of 2 5 of 9
Dione Barbosa 21 of 52 40% 19 of 47 1 of 4 1 of 1 19 of 50 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miranda Maverick 16 of 45 35% 3 of 27 4 of 7 9 of 11 14 of 42 1 of 1 1 of 2
Dione Barbosa 7 of 21 33% 6 of 19 0 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Miranda Maverick 7 of 28 25% 1 of 16 3 of 8 3 of 4 6 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 1
Dione Barbosa 7 of 16 43% 6 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Miranda Maverick 7 of 15 46% 5 of 12 0 of 0 2 of 3 3 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 6
Dione Barbosa 7 of 15 46% 7 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dione Barbosa vs. Miranda Maverick
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Maverick (-218), Barbosa (+180)

Round 1
Shifting gears back to the flyweight category, the U.S. battles Brazil as Maverick (13-5, 6-3 UFC) looks to bewitch “The Witch” Barbosa (7-2, 1-0 UFC) across their three-round endeavor. With exactly twice as much experience as her opponent, and as many fights in the UFC as Barbosa holds as a pro, Maverick will come into the match five years the younger. Referee Chris Tognoni takes charge of this pairing, and he claps the two in as they clap hands. Both women flirt with the middle of the cage, tossing a single strike at one another to test the waters. Maverick kicks the lead leg, and Barbosa replies with a front kick up the middle. Barbosa chops at the front leg, and Maverick replies. The two trade leg kicks, and Maverick grins after an exchange. Both women reach at one another with rangy punches and miss the mark, and then try head kicks that rebound off one another’s guards. They go tit-for-tat after one another, seemingly mirroring one another with attempted strikes. Barbosa picks up her leg after eating a particularly effective low kick, and Maverick targets it once more and ducks away from a sudden wheel kick. Maverick chops at the thigh with a kick, and when the Brazilian closes the distance, she plants two punches on the jaw and slips away. Maverick strikes the lead leg, turning it red less than halfway through Round 1, and she rushes out with jabs outstretched. They both swing and miss on distance strikes, their corners celebrating whether they land or not. Maverick continues to work the calf at the end of combinations, and Barbosa preemptively lifts her leg until crashing forward to take the fight down. Maverick reverses her and tosses the Brazilian to her back, and she fights through a leglock to lower herself down in half guard. Barbosa keeps a high guard to threaten from her back, but Maverick pushes through it to stay out of danger. Barbosa closes the high guard briefly, trying to control Maverick while Maverick controls her. Maverick’s offense dwindles to a few strikes and a knee to the posterior as seconds peel off the clock with little to show for them. Maverick raps her left hand over the top a few times to stay busy, working the head and body before hammering Barbosa with a few elbows. Barbosa looks for a submission setup, and Maverick shrugs it off to continue her ground-and-pound until the bell intervenes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maverick
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Maverick
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Maverick

Round 2
The women try to clap hands to begin the second round and miss, and say heck with it and start swinging at one another. Maverick picks and pokes with low kicks before mixing it up with a head kick, and when that nearly gets through, she tries another seconds later. Barbosa defends a low single and tosses Maverick aside to kick her in the cheek, and she rushes forward to press the Missouri native against the fencing. Barbosa succeeds in hitting a throw to chuck Maverick to the floor, and Maverick is quick to climb back to her feet despite the head lock toss. Maverick breaks away from the clinch and eats a sudden spinning elbow, and she reaches out with a kick and is countered with one from the Brazilian. Maverick jabs to the head and body, keeping her hands up to block a head kick and crashing forward at the same time as her opponent to hit a takedown. Barbosa defends with a takedown, and Maverick pushes her against the wall, unconcerned by the choke, to trip “The Witch” to the canvas. Barbosa is stuck on her back absorbing sporadic punches, and Maverick stays tightly pressed to not let Barbosa sneak anything up on her. Barbosa turns to set up an armbar, and Maverick tosses Barbosa to the side and gets back on top. Barbosa uses the butterfly hooks from allowing Maverick to get her flat, but Maverick keeps to this position while kneeing Barbosa in the backside once. Maverick drops down short right hands as she assumes half guard, and she elbows Barbosa and smacks her with her shoulder before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maverick
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Maverick
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Maverick

Round 3
They do touch gloves to open up the last stanza, and fists are soon to fly. Maverick sits down on three punches, and she leans back as a head kick buzzes her hair. Barbosa works her way forward and reaches out with a right hand after taking a low kick, and she connects with two more before Maverick’s back hits the wall. Barbosa tries to change levels, but Maverick’s takedown defends keeps her upright. As Maverick breaks off, she lands another calf kick and a right hand behind it, and Barbosa walks her down ready to throw leather. Maverick shoots in for a single, and Barbosa scrambles effectively to flip Maverick over and even set up a kneebar. Maverick fights through it and winds up on top, moving into the butterfly guard of her opponent. Maverick keeps tight and composed from above to put Barbosa flat on her back, and she grinds with an elbow to irritate the Brazilian. Maverick gets bucked off briefly, and she remains on top while getting in elbows until Barbosa turns for an armbar. Maverick no-sells it and pulls out of it, and she relocates herself in Barbosa’s guard. Maverick lands a shoulder strike, and it appears she may have headbutted Barbosa in the chest as well, but nothing comes of it. Maverick’s 125-pound-plus frame feels like 500 pounds as Barbosa cannot get enough space, try as she might. Maverick retains control and fully embraces the grind, sliding over to half guard and using her elbow to frame up and land shots. Maverick remains active from this position, doing so until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maverick (30-27 Maverick)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Maverick (30-27 Maverick)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Maverick (30-27 Maverick)

The Official Result
Miranda Maverick def. Dione Barbosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Angelo picks Miranda Maverick because she is a pressure fighter with solid takedowns and strength, and Dione Barbosa has poor takedown defense. He notes that Barbosa is a judoka who wants to clinch, but Maverick will shoot takedowns instead of tying up. He is waiting for prop bets to place a wager, as he doesn't love the moneyline.

waiting for prop bets
"Miranda Maverick is going to be the pick I'm going to be betting on her in some capacity I'm waiting for the prop bets I don't love the money line right now"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Cody picks Maverick, emphasizing her youth (27), cardio, and full camp. He notes Barbosa is on short notice and gassed in her last fight. He expects Maverick to lose the first round but take over in the second and third with takedowns and volume. He suggests live betting Maverick after round one.

"I think you live bet this one after Miranda Maverick either loses the first round or that it's a very competitive first round."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Daniel Vreeland picks Dione Barbosa as an upset, citing her superior Jiu-Jitsu and improving striking. He notes that Maverick struggles when she cannot be the bully, and Barbosa's size and grappling advantage will be key. Vreeland believes Barbosa can submit Maverick or win a decision, and considers the odds off.

"I think Deon Barbosa can actually spook her on the feet a bit with with her ever improving standup and then when she gets it to the mat I would not be surprised if she was the first one to …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Maverick is a heavy favorite at -220. She has improved striking and strong grappling, and her physicality should be too much for Barbosa. Barbosa relies on takedowns and BJJ, but Maverick has good submission defense and has never been finished. Maverick will make Barbosa work early and then pull away with her striking and top control. Even at -220, Maverick is worth a shot.

"even at minus 220 I think she is worth a shot and should be able to give Marosa her first UFC loss"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Maverick's submission win over Priscila Cachoeira and her ability to go three rounds. He thinks Barbosa's cardio is a major issue and that Maverick will cruise to a decision or late stoppage. He also mentions the altitude training with Rose Namajunas as a plus.

"I would have loved Maverick at minus 150... but you make a lot of good points there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

The MMA Guru picks Miranda Maverick, citing her longer training and recent win over Andrea Lee. He notes Dione Barbosa's win over Nesta Carter is not impressive, and believes Maverick's grappling defense will give her an advantage on the feet. He also mentions Maverick's close fight with Maycee Barber, which he thought she won, as a positive sign.

"I'm gonna go with uh Miranda Maverick I think longer training she's been doing it for longer now she's 27"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dione Barbosa 0 39 of 71 54% 87 of 124 2 of 11 18% 1 1 3:51
Ernesta Kareckaitė 0 53 of 156 33% 100 of 220 1 of 1 100% 0 3 3:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dione Barbosa 0 11 of 17 64% 34 of 43 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:47
Ernesta Kareckaitė 0 5 of 23 21% 7 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:17
2 Dione Barbosa 0 8 of 17 47% 26 of 37 1 of 3 33% 0 1 0:57
Ernesta Kareckaitė 0 14 of 44 31% 49 of 93 1 of 1 100% 0 2 2:02
3 Dione Barbosa 0 20 of 37 54% 27 of 44 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:07
Ernesta Kareckaitė 0 34 of 89 38% 44 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dione Barbosa 39 of 71 54% 21 of 49 14 of 17 4 of 5 33 of 65 2 of 2 4 of 4
Ernesta Kareckaitė 53 of 156 33% 39 of 127 8 of 15 6 of 14 44 of 132 1 of 1 8 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dione Barbosa 11 of 17 64% 6 of 9 2 of 4 3 of 4 7 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 4
Ernesta Kareckaitė 5 of 23 21% 4 of 21 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Dione Barbosa 8 of 17 47% 5 of 13 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ernesta Kareckaitė 14 of 44 31% 8 of 30 2 of 2 4 of 12 8 of 25 0 of 0 6 of 19
3 Dione Barbosa 20 of 37 54% 10 of 27 10 of 10 0 of 0 19 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ernesta Kareckaitė 34 of 89 38% 27 of 76 6 of 12 1 of 1 32 of 85 1 of 1 1 of 3
Play-by-Play
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Dione Barbosa vs. Ernesta Kareckaite
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barbosa (-205), Kareckaite (+170)

Round 1
In the next matchup on the early prelims, a classic battle of Brazil vs. Lithuania plays out in the women’s flyweight category. Two women signed on the 2023 season of Dana White’s Contender Series will test their mettle against one another, as “The Witch” Barbosa (6-2, 0-0 UFC) looks to bewitch the heavy-handed Kareckaite (5-0-1, 0-0 UFC). Striker faces grappler, while referee Fernando Portella watches on. The ladies share a cordial tap of the gloves before getting after it. They both try to find their range with jabs early, and Barbosa strikes first with a sweeping low kick. Kareckaite reaches out with a right hand, and she comes up short and hops away from another leg kick. The two whiff on their strikes until Barbosa connects with a loud body kick, and she slides out of the way of the long punches of the Lithuanian. Barbosa jabs the body and sticks Kareckaite with a straight right hand, and Kareckaite is surprised and needs a moment to blink it out. Kareckaite gets off a right hand around the guard, and they both land sing leg kicks. Barbosa tosses out a one-two and shoots in for takedown, and she rushes Kareckaite to the fence and looks for a trip and throw. The Brazilian easily slings her to the mat despite Kareckaite grabbing the cage, and she slips around to take Kareckaite’s back in a hurry. Before Kareckaite knows what is going on, Barbosa sneaks an arm under the chin, and Kareckaite has to fight it off while a body triangle cinches around her waist. Kareckaite sits up to break up the body lock, and Barbosa floats along and lands a number of short right hands before hunting for another choke. When Kareckaite defends, she leans over and tries to slide Barbosa out the back door. Barbosa hunts for a rear-naked choke and softens Kareckaite up with punches, and she keeps hooks in to thwart the turning Kareckaite from bucking her off. The Brazilian keeps smacking Kareckaite with short but effective right hands, and she turns over willingly to snatch up an armbar. Kareckaite keeps her stacked up and rides out the round in the position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa

Round 2
The ladies quickly bump fists before getting back to it, and Kareckaite lunges forward almost immediately with long punches. Barbosa strings together a short combination to wobble the long legs of her opponent, and she spins with a back elbow that hurts Kareckaite and drops her down to both hands. Kareckaite pushes off the mat, and Barbosa pushes forward to take her down. Kareckaite grabs the fence to stay upright, and Portella warns her for the foul. Kareckaite manages to break out of the position, and Barbosa rushes forward to strike the body and fake a spinning strike. Barbosa does a delayed step forward and surprises Kareckaite with a takedown effort, successfully grounding the Lithuanian. Kareckaite turns the corner and reverses the position, and she stands back up and starts smacking Barbosa’s legs with kicks. This exchange continues for quite some time, as Portella stands there instead of forcing Barbosa to stand up. Kareckaite keeps kicking until Portella finally gets between them. Barbosa stands up, and Kareckaite catches her with a clean one-two. Kareckaite looks for a right hand over the top, and she gets popped with another spinning back elbow. Kareckaite uses the momentum of her opponent to bowl her over to the ground, and Barbosa hits her back and snags hold of a heel hook. Kareckaite lowers herself down and turns the right way to get away from the leglock, but Barbosa speedily takes her back. Kareckaite attempts to turn through it, and Barbosa lines up an armbar setup. Kareckaite maintains heavy top pressure to disallow Barbosa from locking the armbar down, and she shucks the arms and legs out of the way to move into the guard. The horn sounds with them in this place.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa

Round 3
The women go strike-for-strike when the round begins, with one landing and the other responding. As Kareckaite gets off a solid right hand, Barbosa shoots for a telegraphed takedown. Kareckaite is able to sprawl effectively to shut it down, and she stands up and allows Barbosa to do so and flicks a head kick at her. Barbosa gets her guard up in time, but she gets backed up by the striking of her opponent. Kareckaite stings the Brazilian with a one-two, and Barbosa shoots in again. The takedown shot fails, and Kareckaite backs away and lands a few more times. A failed level change from Barbosa makes her just stumble, but she regains her footing and spins with a back kick that lands square on the ribcage. Kareckaite ignores it and slings a head kick at her and a series of long, rangy punches. Kareckaite shuts down another takedown, lets Barbosa up and rings her up with a hard one-two. Four quick punches land flush from the Lithuanian, and Barbosa is showing serious signs of fatigue. Kareckaite marches her down, tagging her with crisp punches and stopping Barbosa in her tracks from attempting takedowns. Kareckaite pushes Barbosa away after another takedown try, and she puts fists to face as Barbosa swings back. Barbosa comes up short on another takedown, but a second effort puts them down on the mat. Kareckaite turns through and winds up on top, where Barbosa hunts for a leglock almost immediately. Kareckaite holds onto the fence while turning herself through it, and she stands up and steps around to lower down two heavy punches on the jaw. Barbosa goes for another submission, but Kareckaite backs off and motions for her to stand up. Kareckaite walks face-first into a right hand, and she wings a right hand back that grazes the cheek. Kareckaite loads up on a right hand and forces Barbosa to dip down into a head kick. The Brazilian shoots desperately for a takedown at the 10-second slapper, and Kareckaite stifles her until the final horn blares. This could be a close one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite (29-28 Kareckaite)
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite (29-28 Barbosa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite (29-28 Barbosa)

The Official Result
Dione Barbosa def. Ernesta Kareckaite via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Angelo picks Barbosa as the grappler, noting she can control where the fight goes. He acknowledges her struggles closing distance and that Kareckaitė is the better striker, but believes Barbosa's grappling will prevail. He strongly advises against betting on this fight due to its low level.

Angelo says 'save your money' and 'I don't even think the round line is worth touching'
"diona Barbosa is the pick but for the love of God save your we have 14 fights on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ernesta Kareckaitė

Big Brady sees this as a striker vs grappler matchup. He likes Kareckaitė's high volume striking and cardio, and thinks her takedown defense is good enough to survive and win a volume-based decision. He notes Barbosa's BJJ but is not confident in her ability to get takedowns.

"I'm going to slightly lean with Ernesta here to get the job done."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Cody picks Barbosa but is not super confident. He notes Barbosa's grappling advantage and Kareckaitė's lack of ground game. He expects Barbosa to mix takedowns and win a decision, but acknowledges it could be close.

"Dione Barbosa I'll pick her but not a fight that I'm super confident in..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Daniel Vreeland picks Barbosa, citing her judo background and superior grappling. He notes that Kareckaitė has good conditioning and volume on the feet, but Barbosa is nearly as good a striker and has a massive ground advantage. He expects Barbosa to get takedowns and control the fight, potentially by submission or decision.

"I like Barbosa a lot here I bet her uh I laid juice on her money line I think she gets the job done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dione Barbosa

This is a grappler versus striker matchup. Barbosa, a judo and BJJ black belt, should be able to get the fight to the ground and put Kareckaitė in bad positions, potentially leading to a submission. However, the ultimate prediction is Barbosa by decision.

submission threat, but pick is decision
"I think it could potentially lead to a submission but the the ultimate prediction I'm going to go with here is Barbosa by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Paul picks Barbosa, citing her grappling and takedown ability. He notes Kareckaitė has a reach advantage but poor ground game. Paul expects Barbosa to neutralize the striking and win on the ground.

"Dione Barbosa probably tries to figure things out and kickbox... but I think she just neutralizes her takedowns out grapples her..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

The MMA Guru initially leans toward Ernesta Kareckaitė due to her kickboxing background and undefeated record, but after reviewing footage of Dione Barbosa taking down Josiane Nunes, he switches to Barbosa. He notes Barbosa's strength and win over Karine Silva as key factors, though he remains hesitant due to limited information.

"I'm actually going to go with Deon baroza seems strong enough to get Josan Nunes to the ground"
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Angelo acknowledges Karine Silva is a strong grappler and a favorite, but notes her takedown defense is lacking and she hasn't finished at the UFC level. He trusts Dione Barbosa's strength, pressure, and ability to stay safe, though he has concerns about her cardio on short notice. He leans toward the dog, calling it an easy plus money bet but says he won't touch it if it becomes -250.

plus money bet, but won't touch if -250
"I'm going to lean the dog. I think Dion Barbosza has a genuine legitimate chance to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Big Brady picks Karine Silva to win by decision. He notes Silva has more power on the feet and is a dangerous grappler, while Barbosa is also a dangerous grappler but Silva is a higher level. He mentions Silva's experience advantage with 23 fights compared to Barbosa's 11, and that Silva has fought tougher competition in the UFC. He acknowledges Silva's last fight against Vivian Araujo wasn't great but thinks Araujo is underrated. He expects Silva to mix in takedowns and land better shots, but doesn't think she'll finish Barbosa due to Barbosa's black belt and decent chin.

Silva by decision
"I'm going to take Silva to win this fight and take her to win this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Dione Barbosa

The host notes this is a rematch from six years ago where Barbosa won. He believes Barbosa will nullify Silva's aggressive BJJ approach, grind her out from top position, and win by decision on short notice.

"I think that we'll see Barbosa nullify the aggressive BJJ approach of Silva, grind her out from that top position and pull off the upset on short notice by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The Guru picks Karine Silva to win, noting that Dione Barbosa is coming off a win but on a quick turnaround without a training camp. He believes Silva will have the advantage due to Barbosa's lack of preparation.

"I'm going to go with Karine Silva to win. Dion Barbosza is coming off a win four months ago by triangle. ... She was not in a training camp for this fight whatsoever."