UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025 · Middleweight · Completed
UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev Next Fight
Age 32
Height 6' 1"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 32
Height 6' 2"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Dricus du Plessis
5.18 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.33 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
2.22 TD Avg
51.0% TD Acc.
34.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Khamzat Chimaev
4.04 SLpM
60.0% Str. Acc.
2.32 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
5.29 TD Avg
55.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
1.8 Sub. Avg
Dricus du Plessis
Moneyline
FanDuel +220
KO/TKO
Unibet +650
Submission
Cloudbet +1225
Decision
FanDuel +700
Khamzat Chimaev
Moneyline
DraftKings -180
KO/TKO
FanDuel +470
Submission
Cloudbet +198
Decision
Cloudbet +547
Dricus du Plessis - Fight History
LOSS vs Khamzat Chimaev
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 13 of 29 44% 45 of 68 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:53
Khamzat Chimaev 0 37 of 47 78% 529 of 567 12 of 17 70% 0 0 21:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 0 of 0 --- 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 1 of 2 50% 131 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:47
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 0 of 2 0% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 4 of 5 80% 79 of 81 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:47
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 1 of 2 50% 9 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 19 of 22 86% 156 of 164 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:46
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 2 of 5 40% 8 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 4 of 6 66% 76 of 85 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:26
5 Dricus du Plessis 0 10 of 20 50% 19 of 32 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:53
Khamzat Chimaev 0 9 of 12 75% 87 of 100 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 13 of 29 44% 10 of 24 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 3 of 4
Khamzat Chimaev 37 of 47 78% 28 of 36 3 of 5 6 of 6 12 of 19 0 of 0 25 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 4 of 5 80% 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4
3 Dricus du Plessis 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 19 of 22 86% 19 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 19 of 22
4 Dricus du Plessis 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 4 of 6 66% 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Dricus du Plessis 10 of 20 50% 8 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 4
Khamzat Chimaev 9 of 12 75% 6 of 9 1 of 1 2 of 2 8 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Middleweight Title Fight: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-238), du Plessis (+195)

Round 1
Let’s be honest: this is what you came here to see. The other fights tonight were pretty solid, nothing extraordinary with mixed results featuring some duds and a few good knockouts. This middleweight championship battle is one that people have marked on their calendar the day it was announced, and it was one fans have been waiting for since Chimaev (14-0, 8-0 UFC) won in the Octagon three times in 2020. The so-called boogeyman has his time to shine tonight, but he will have to get through Du Plessis (23-2, 9-0 UFC). Irresistible force, meet immovable object. No one has gotten past “DDP” in the UFC to date, but Chimaev is expected by the betting populace and fan contingent to go home with the belt. Referee Marc Goddard takes the final assignment of the evening, bringing the two 185ers to the center of the cage. They are so fired up and intense that they crash into each other when staring down, but they do touch gloves after all. Let’s all take a deep breath here. It’s on with the show.
Chimaev pushes out a front kick and shoots for a double, and Du Plessis rolls through it but ends up winding up on his back within 15 seconds. Du Plessis briefly considers a guillotine choke off his back, but when Chimaev considers a Von Preux shoulder choke, Du Plessis abandons it. Chimaev is already in side control in the center of the cage, and he wraps up the champ’s right arm in a crucifix position. Chimaev starts pounding on the side of the head, and a few punches land to the back of the head as Goddard is paying attention. Chimaev keeps beating on the downed champion with short but scoring punches, and Du Plessis bucks and kicks to try to get out. With Du Plessis’ face turned to Chimaev’s chest, the punches have little on them even as they add up like a big brother bullying a young sibling.
Chimaev keeps smacking his foe with any free hand, and he flirts with an arm-triangle choke when Du Plessis wrenches his arm free. Du Plessis’ bucks and twists allow him to put his feet on the fence, and he pushes off of it while not hooking his toes in the fencing. Chimaev stays tight as a drum on top, bopping “Stillknocks” with his irritating little punches. When Chimaev steps to get to mount, Du Plessis illegally grabs the cage to reposition himself and Goddard admonishes him for it. Chimaev knees him in the side once or twice when he puts Du Plessis flat on his back again. Goddard asks the challenger to do more in this position, and it is Du Plessis who twists all the way around not just to get out of the bad position but escapes the brief back take. The champ thinks about another guillotine choke, and Chimaev flips him over and elbows him to concluded the one-sided round. As a rule-based reminder, 10-8 rounds now must have damage as a mandatory criteria.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev

Round 2
The fighters strike for a second or two before Chimaev advances in pursuit of a takedown. Du Plessis defends well enough to crawl his way to the cage wall without ever fully going down, but Chimaev is behind him ragdolling him. Du Plessis stands, and the challenger hurls him right back down to the floor from behind. Du Plessis works his way back to the fencing again all while Chimaev clings to him like malicious Saran wrap. Chimaev knees him in the back and side a few times, and Du Plessis appears unconcerned but is completely nullified a round and a half in. Chimaev spams knees to the posterior as Du Plessis posts off his hands, and he wrenches the South African to the floor and starts fishing for chokes or face cranks.
The champ recognizes the peril he is in and hand-fights to defend any submission from coming close to materializing, so Chimaev strips his other leg out and puts him on both knees once more. Chimaev tries to climb onto the back and get a hook in, but he settles for knees to the thigh. The audience wants more. Du Plessis defends left hands to the side of his head, and only a few get through. Chimaev reaches either arm around the chest like a mean-spirited seatbelt, and Du Plessis uses two-on-one wrist control to thwart it from progressing. Chimaev lands a knee or two in the ribs, fully controlling “DDP” and disallowing him from landing a single noteworthy blow. Chimaev hangs on until the round ends, and Du Plessis winks at him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 3
Du Plessis says hello with a quick kick, and he scores a left hand as Chimaev advances. Chimaev ignores it as he is already after a takedown, where he lifts up the champion in the air and hurls him to the floor. Du Plessis stands up, and Chimaev uses the body lock to toss him back down, where he moves right to side control. Chimaev smothers his man, and he moves to set up another crucifix as Goddard asks for more activity than little swatting punches. Chimaev secures the crucifix he was seeking by looping his legs around the champ’s right arm, and he pummels him with short, annoying fists. The strike totals may be through the roof, and the damage begins mounting as Du Plessis’ face is busted open a smidge.
Chimaev stays in the dominant position smacking him upside the head, and Du Plessis has absolutely no answers but motions a thumbs-up to his team as if he knows something we don’t even as Chimaev has landed well over 200 strikes on him in the last two-and-a-half rounds. Chimaev switchers to elbows, and blood flows a bit more from the wound on the champion’s face. Chimaev releases the grip on the arm and steps into full mount, knowing that Du Plessis will turn to give up his back. Du Plessis defends a choke grip but Chimaev has both hooks in elbowing the champ repeatedly. Du Plessis sits up, and Chimaev threatens with a brabo choke as the bell sounds. When the champion stands, he shrugs.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev

Round 4
The championship rounds are here, and Du Plessis is not broken and signals to the crowd to get pumped up. Chimaev tosses out a front kick, and he backs off to avoid a one-two. Chimaev tries for a body kick that he turns to a takedown, and Du Plessis spins out of it to stop the first try. The challenger is a dog with a bone when it comes to the grappling, and he succeeds in wrestling the champion down to the mat. Du Plessis positions himself towards the fencing while on his knees, and Chimaev works on either side of his body with peppering knees. Du Plessis explodes back to his feet, and Chimaev mat returns him with relative ease in a real “there’s levels to this” showcase. Du Plessis may manage to again get to his knees, and Goddard tells Chimaev to do more than knee him in the backside. Chimaev answers by pulling the champ away from the cage and putting him down. Du Plessis stands, and the mat return is almost instant. Few champs have been wholly dominated in such a fashion.
Du Plessis feebly rolls to try to escape, and this only puts him at a disadvantageous position with Chimaev hooking up a crucifix by keeping his knee on the champ’s right bicep. Du Plessis is warned for toes in the fence when trying to push off the wall, and after some light knees from Chimaev, Goddard stands them up. Du Plessis strikes with a body kick, and the marauding challenger hurls him to the ground. Once Du Plessis hits the mat, he shows someone a thumbs-up, but it is an empty gesture. With Du Plessis wearing down, Chimaev goes after a few chokes that do not materialize. Twenty minutes are in the books.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 5
Chimaev starts off the last round with a head kick, and he blocks one that comes back his way. Du Plessis puts a one-two on the chin, and Chimaev responds with a jab and a takedown shot. The South African cannot get away before the challenger’s arms are wrapped around him taking him to the floor. Chimaev quickly sets up a crucifix again, where he starts beating on the champ with soft punches. Du Plessis uses a kimura grip to sweep, allowing him to get to his knees and out of the bad spot. Chimaev holds onto him from behind, dragging Du Plessis to the ground the moment Du Plessis stands.
In a moment of explosive desperation, Du Plessis manages to flip Chimaev to his back, where he jumps for a guillotine choke in a move that may even have Dustin Poirier screaming at the fighters—since he is in the booth upstairs, and not home yelling at his television. The choke has nothing on it with the two so sweaty, and Chimaev pops out and get in the guard. With 90 seconds to go, Goddard stands them up. Chimaev puts out a triple jab to disrupt the advancing champion, and Du Plessis misses with a high kick. Chimaev has two low kicks score, and he backpedals when getting cracked with a right hand. Chimaev shoots deep, and Du Plessis sprawls and starts hacking at Chimaev in the temple. Chimaev keeps pushing through the hips, and Du Plessis manages to throw the challenger to his back with 30 seconds to go. Du Plessis wraps up a rear-naked choke, but he falls off the side to lose it. Chimaev clings to an arm, and Du Plessis elbows him in the top of the head. Chimaev wags his finger at him, and the one-sided fight comes to a merciful conclusion with the new coronation of a champion coming momentarily.
At long last, Khamzat Chimaev has recognized the potential many saw in him years ago. He is now the undisputed middleweight champion, and he ragdolled a man that many thought might be his match. When speaking to commentator Joe Rogan, Chimaev does not say a great deal in English or through a translator, but asks to get paid. When “Borz” has his first defense scheduled, you better you bet we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (50-44 Chimaev)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Dricus Du Plessis via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo acknowledges the common narrative that DDP wins if he survives early, but he questions Chimaev's cardio criticism, noting his tough weight cuts at 170. He believes the skill gap is wider than people think and that Chimaev can win multiple rounds. He picks Chimaev as the attacker rather than the survivor, despite rooting for DDP.

"I am going to pick Hamzot, though. I think the skill gap is wider than most people think it is."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He thinks Chimaev will get takedowns easily and put du Plessis in bad spots early. He worries about Chimaev's cardio if the fight goes to the third round, as du Plessis has shown good cardio and could take over late. He notes Chimaev has never seen a fourth or fifth round. He sees it as Chimaev early or du Plessis late, but leans Chimaev by early submission.

Chimaev by submission, round 1
"Give me Hamzad to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by first round submission in this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Connor picks Chimaev, arguing that du Plessis has never faced a wrestler of Chimaev's caliber and that his takedown defense is poor, as shown in the Derek Brunson fight where he was taken down in 10 seconds. He believes Chimaev is the best one-round fighter in MMA history and will likely finish du Plessis early. However, he acknowledges that if Chimaev doesn't get the finish, du Plessis's resilience and ability to weather storms could make it competitive.

Chimaev opened at -200, currently -237; du Plessis opened at +170, currently +202
"I think Khamzat Chimaev is going to be champion by the end of the week. And I'm pretty certain of that."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The host believes Chimaev's wrestling, top control, and submission game will be too much for du Plessis. He predicts Chimaev will secure a submission within two rounds, becoming the new middleweight champion. The host emphasizes Chimaev's grappling advantage as the key factor.

submission within two rounds
"I think he's going to struggle with the wrestling top control and submission game of Chamay, which should lead to Hamzat earning that gold and finding the submission within two rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to survive the early grappling onslaught from Khamzat Chimaev and take over as the fight progresses. He believes du Plessis's Brazilian jiu-jitsu background and experience against high-level grapplers will allow him to avoid being finished in round one. As Chimaev's cardio fades, du Plessis will turn the fight into a striking match and eventually finish him with a TKO in round three or four. The Guru compares this to Chimaev's fights with Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, where he struggled once the fight went past the first round.

TKO round 3 or 4; Dricus du Plessis wins by TKO up against the cage; less than 21.5 round one significant strikes for du Plessis (from PrizePicks segment)
"I think Drikus is going to survive round one and finish him. Driers has Brazilian jiu-jitsu game. I think he has the right mindset for this."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis, citing his resilience, ability to manage anxiety and energy, and his proven five-round experience. He notes that du Plessis is a strong scrambler who doesn't get submitted easily and can find second winds. Zane is not confident, acknowledging that Chimaev will likely take du Plessis down early and may finish him, but he has faith in du Plessis's ability to survive and take over if Chimaev fades.

du Plessis opened at +170, currently +202; Chimaev opened at -200, currently -237
"I'm still going to pick Dricus. I just think it's fun to pick Dricus. I want Dricus to win."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 147 of 314 46% 149 of 316 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
Sean Strickland 0 128 of 263 48% 128 of 263 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 16 of 49 32% 16 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 60 51% 31 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 39 of 79 49% 39 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Sean Strickland 0 24 of 47 51% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 21 of 66 31% 23 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 28 of 51 54% 28 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Dricus du Plessis 0 36 of 64 56% 36 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 31 of 62 50% 31 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 147 of 314 46% 50 of 193 45 of 59 52 of 62 147 of 314 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 128 of 263 48% 90 of 212 29 of 41 9 of 10 128 of 263 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 20 of 45 44% 5 of 25 6 of 10 9 of 10 20 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 16 of 49 32% 10 of 41 5 of 7 1 of 1 16 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 60 51% 7 of 31 7 of 10 17 of 19 31 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 29 of 54 53% 15 of 35 8 of 13 6 of 6 29 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 39 of 79 49% 11 of 46 14 of 15 14 of 18 39 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 24 of 47 51% 18 of 39 5 of 6 1 of 2 24 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 21 of 66 31% 13 of 54 5 of 7 3 of 5 21 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 28 of 51 54% 23 of 43 5 of 8 0 of 0 28 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Dricus du Plessis 36 of 64 56% 14 of 37 13 of 17 9 of 10 36 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 31 of 62 50% 24 of 54 6 of 7 1 of 1 31 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady scored the first fight 3-2 for du Plessis and expects a similar competitive fight. He notes that Strickland fights the same way every time, with jabs and teeps, while du Plessis has the power and wrestling advantage. He thinks du Plessis will land the bigger shots and has all the finish upside. However, he believes the odds at -205 are too wide and expects a close decision. He picks du Plessis by decision.

I think these odds are wide I like I think the opener was a lot more accurate
"gimme drus here I think is going to win a close and competitive decision in this one once more and and uh yeah drus SP decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dricus is the one likely to adjust. He notes that Strickland's internal struggles prevent him from changing his game. Connor also mentions that Dricus will not back down and will keep coming forward, which is key. He sees Strickland's win condition as a lucky punch or eye swelling, but considers it unlikely.

Same odds as Zane. Connor says he wouldn't bet on Strickland.
"I just trust Dricus to make an adaptation and I trust Sean Strickland to never ever do that."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Feb 4, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Daniel Levi discusses the rematch between Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland, noting that the first fight was a five-round split decision. He cites historical examples where rematches of close five-round fights often end sooner, such as Machida vs Shogun and Cerrone vs Henderson. However, he does not explicitly pick a winner, instead asking the audience who they have. He mentions that du Plessis has made opponents cry with his trash talk but does not commit to a prediction.

"So who youall got in the rematch between dricus dupy and Sean Strickland going down this weekend at UFC 312"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Strickland's pace and pressure will allow him to pick apart du Plessis and get ahead on the scorecards. His striking defense and durability are good enough to deal with du Plessis's power. Strickland may incorporate some grappling to stay safe, but ultimately wins in deep water by decision.

decision
"I think if Strickland can pick it up a little bit more he should be able to utilize his pace and his pressure as effectively as we've seen him do in the past and that will allow him to really …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane believes Dricus du Plessis will win because he is more likely to adjust and has shown he can land bigger shots. He notes that Sean Strickland rarely adapts and his style is predictable. Zane also points out that Strickland's best chance is a knockout or doctor stoppage, but that is unlikely. He trusts Dricus to counter the jab and make Strickland hesitant.

Dricus du Plessis opened at -190, currently -196; Strickland opened at +167, currently +172. Zane says he wouldn't bet on Strickland.
"I think you basically have to pick Dricus."
Submission (face crank) R4 3:38 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 90 of 197 45% 99 of 206 4 of 9 44% 2 0 3:39
Israel Adesanya 0 97 of 203 47% 105 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 13 of 25 52% 22 of 34 3 of 5 60% 1 0 3:28
Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 30 56% 25 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:02
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 75 41% 31 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:11
Israel Adesanya 0 24 of 53 45% 24 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 90 of 197 45% 61 of 155 7 of 13 22 of 29 80 of 184 8 of 11 2 of 2
Israel Adesanya 97 of 203 47% 63 of 165 26 of 29 8 of 9 92 of 198 4 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 52 42% 8 of 30 2 of 5 12 of 17 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 16 of 37 43% 10 of 31 4 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 13 of 25 52% 10 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 14 6 of 9 2 of 2
Israel Adesanya 17 of 30 56% 12 of 25 2 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 75 41% 22 of 63 1 of 3 8 of 9 31 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 40 of 83 48% 25 of 66 12 of 14 3 of 3 40 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 24 of 45 53% 21 of 41 2 of 3 1 of 1 22 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 24 of 53 45% 16 of 43 8 of 9 0 of 1 23 of 52 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo picks Dricus du Plessis despite acknowledging Israel Adesanya is the more technical fighter. He believes du Plessis's insane pressure, constant forward movement, and takedown attempts will be too much for the 35-year-old Adesanya, who took a year off. He has two half-unit bets on du Plessis at +105 and +120, totaling one unit, and is confident the pressure will overwhelm Adesanya.

Two half-unit bets at +105 and +120; total 1 unit
"I think all of that is going to be too much for Izzy he's 35 years old he took a year off... drus is going to be the pick and I've got two bets on draz."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but is hesitant. He struggled with this pick, initially leaning du Plessis but then moving to Adesanya. He rewatched the du Plessis vs Strickland fight and didn't think du Plessis won convincingly. He notes that if du Plessis fights at range against Adesanya, Adesanya will make it look easy, but if du Plessis pressures recklessly, he could knock Adesanya out. He is concerned about Adesanya's last performance against Strickland, which was his worst career fight, but believes a motivated Adesanya can win. He says he will probably stay away from betting this fight.

decision
"I'm going to pick osani to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody believes du Plessis has the wrestling advantage to take Adesanya down repeatedly, as Adesanya's takedown defense has always been suspect. He notes du Plessis is younger, has better cardio, and is improving, while Adesanya is 35 and coming off a year layoff. He also points to du Plessis' wins over Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland as evidence he can handle top competition.

"I'm going to back him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to retain the belt, citing stylistic advantages in closing distance and making the fight dirty. He notes that du Plessis has power, wrestling threats, and a proven ability to push pace, while Adesanya may be declining due to age and recent losses. Vreeland also mentions betting on du Plessis at plus 110 odds.

"I took D's dupy plus 110 listen I know it's tough to bet against a guy like IAT asna but when we come down to the Stylistics closing the distance getting right in his face fighting not at kicking range …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Vreeland picks Adesanya, calling him 'good' and noting he occasionally gets caught but won't happen here against a smaller fighter. He believes Adesanya will play it safe and get his belt back, especially with the home crowd against him.

"give me isosa isos is good he occasionally gets caught and knocked out I don't think that's gonna happen here with a smaller fighter in tras D pleas c"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Fox picks Adesanya, arguing du Plessis is good but cannot close the distance against a motivated Adesanya. He compares to Pereira: you need elite striking or wrestling to beat Adesanya. He dismisses the Strickland loss as an unmotivated Adesanya, and believes with the trilogy fight with Pereira dangling, Adesanya will be fully motivated and put on a clinic. He thinks du Plessis' pressure will be countered viciously.

Israel Adesanya by decision (+240) - Fox's prop pick
"I think you see the ated version of them back and I think you see an absolute clinic on the feet so yeah isra desna"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The host picks Adesanya, citing his technical striking, traps, and game planning. He expects a revitalized Adesanya after rest, and believes he will counter du Plessis effectively. He notes du Plessis' power and forward pressure but thinks Adesanya's pop and volume will be too much. He predicts a knockout win for Adesanya.

Adesanya by knockout
"I think we're going to see a very revitalized version of aanna this weekend and I think that's ultimately going to lead to him getting his hand raised again"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul highlights Adesanya's history of lackluster performances under pressure, such as against Sean Strickland and Yoel Romero, and questions his urgency. He emphasizes du Plessis' forward pressure, durability, and wrestling ability, noting he took down Strickland six times. Paul also mentions du Plessis' youth and the fact that Adesanya is 35 and coming off a retirement, making du Plessis the smart side.

"sign me up for draas"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Israel Adesanya. He argues that du Plessis is bigger than Adesanya's previous opponents, with better footwork and angles, and has multiple offensive options including takedowns, body kicks, and ground and pound. He criticizes Adesanya's recent performances, noting close fights with Sean Strickland and a loss to Alex Pereira. He believes du Plessis will take Adesanya down and control him, possibly finishing via ground and pound. He also mentions Adesanya's age (35) and that du Plessis is in his prime and fighting on his own terms.

TKO late round two via ground and pound
"I'm going with drias dupi over israela... he's got way more options he's got the power"
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 173 of 408 42% 183 of 419 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 137 of 354 38% 140 of 358 6 of 11 54% 0 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 34 of 75 45% 39 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 18 of 51 35% 19 of 52 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:28
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 62 35% 26 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 26 of 60 43% 26 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 87 35% 31 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 29 of 84 34% 29 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 33 of 85 38% 34 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 29 of 73 39% 31 of 75 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:18
5 Dricus du Plessis 0 53 of 99 53% 53 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 35 of 86 40% 35 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 173 of 408 42% 157 of 387 10 of 15 6 of 6 173 of 408 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 137 of 354 38% 81 of 283 32 of 37 24 of 34 134 of 348 3 of 5 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 34 of 75 45% 28 of 67 2 of 4 4 of 4 34 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 18 of 51 35% 8 of 38 3 of 3 7 of 10 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 62 35% 20 of 59 1 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 26 of 60 43% 11 of 42 9 of 9 6 of 9 25 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 87 35% 29 of 84 2 of 3 0 of 0 31 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 29 of 84 34% 13 of 64 10 of 12 6 of 8 28 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 33 of 85 38% 32 of 84 1 of 1 0 of 0 33 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 29 of 73 39% 22 of 62 4 of 6 3 of 5 28 of 69 1 of 3 0 of 1
5 Dricus du Plessis 53 of 99 53% 48 of 93 4 of 5 1 of 1 53 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 35 of 86 40% 27 of 77 6 of 7 2 of 2 35 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Middleweight Title Fight: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Du Plessis (-198), Strickland (+164)

Round 1
The UFC is running a number of middleweight headliners before and after this show, clearly focusing on the top of the division and trying to establish contenders. Instead of a fresh face for Du Plessis (22-2, 8-0 UFC), however, the organization is rebooking the fight where “DDP” claimed the throne. Former beltholder Strickland (29-6, 16-6 UFC) gets another crack at the belt, and at least he won a fight beforehand. Making things official for this 185-pound title tilt will be referee Marc Goddard, issuing his final instructions and getting the combatants to touch ‘em up. It’s on with the show. Strickland keeps his guard up and paws out jabs almost immediately. Strickland stays busy behind his lead left hand, and he blocks a high kick and lets Du Plessis kick him in the sternum. Du Plessis chips at the front leg with kicks, hand-fighting the jabs and wrapping a kick up around the guard. Strickland wears it well and checks a calf kick so he can get in with a jab and a follow-up two. Du Plessis sells out with a hard calf kick that gets checked, so he quickly slaps the other side. Strickland’s jabs are getting through the guard, and Du Plessis answers with a few of his own jabs. Du Plessis goes after another kick, and when it is blocked, he spins and has his heel glance off the challenger’s side. Strickland does not vary his tactic of sticking directly behind his jab, no matter the oncoming fire like a speedy head kick. Strickland stays cool as a cucumber with a front kick of two, scooting out of the way Du Plessis loads up. Strickland jabs the body and is backed off with a spinning back kick that does push him away, and he uses his head movement to avoid the worst of a looping left. Du Plessis his toes slap Strickland on the cheek, with Strickland moving just enough just in time. A Strickland jab flusters “DDP,” who surges into action with power punches and a spin. Du Plessis parries a jab and throws back a left, and he wraps a right around the guard and a head kick inches away from where he was reaching. Du Plessis doubles up on a body kick and scores a right hand, and they both land body shots. Du Plessis rushes forward, gets parried, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis

Round 2
The middleweights clap hands to get going, and game plans do not shift out of the gate. A lot of pump-faking and feints lead to single strikes from both sides, and Du Plessis tries to string a few kicks together on either side. Strickland pushes a front kick through the guard, and they both get off low kicks. A body kick from Du Plessis slips under the guard, and he slips and has a left hand glance off the chin. Strickland turns to block another body kick, but the varied attack is hard to predict. Strickland lands a solid right hand, but it is one-and-done as Du Plessis pays him back. Du Plessis springs forward with a left, and he comes up short on a high kick but not on the leg kick. They both land punches at the same time, with the South African’s left busting open Strickland’s nose. Strickland flashes his jab and follows up with a few additional strikes, getting Du Plessis’ attention but not for long as Du Plessis remains in his face striking. The jabs of Strickland tear open a cut on the bridge of the champ’s nose, and he leans back just barely in time to not get clocked with a high kick and a left hand. Strickland’s parrying guard allows him to sway and move and block, but Du Plessis’s reaching attacks are long enough to land at the end of them. Du Plessis spins with a back fist, gets blocked and spins the other direction with a kick. Strickland stands firm, but has to defend himself as Du Plessis bears down on him. Strickland checks a kick and pecks with his jab, while Du Plessis pops in and out and scores a head kick. Du Plessis lets fly a body kick as he leans back and evades the straight punches aimed at him, contorting his body in a way to protect himself. The round ends with Du Plessis trying to reach from afar, only to get met with jabs to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis

Round 3
The fighters motion to the crowd to get them into it, and they bump fists when the round kicks off. Du Plessis, appropriately, kicks. Lobbing strikes from both sides, he still cannot back Strickland off even if he lands cleanly enough to not absorb counters. Strickland uses a standing knee shield to block some kicks, and this lets “DDP” slug him in the face with a short but dangerous combination. Strickland’s chin holds stern, and he remains right in the face of the champ, where he scores a right to the body and a left to the head. Du Plessis lunges back at him with two looping hooks, and two more come along with a leg kick. Du Plessis drills the body with a kick, and a side kick bounces off the cup as Strickland signals he is not compromised from the foul. Du Plessis wraps a kick under the elbow and they continue striking, this time with an accidental foul on the side of Strickland with a reaching arm that pokes “DDP” in the eye. Du Plessis waves it off and keeps swinging with bad intentions, and he clips the challenger with a spinning back fist at the top of the melon. Du Plessis kicks with either leg and stutter-steps to come in with a left, but it is his body kick that lands cleanly more than once. Du Plessis shoves Strickland away, taking a jab off the chest so he can hurl a left hand. Strickland splits the guard with a jab and follows with two solid punches, and Du Plessis walks him down and bashes him upside the head with a spinning elbow. The two go wild for a moment with looping punches, and Strickland appears to finally get the attention of the champion. Strickland paws out his front foot, and Du Plessis hammers the body with a right hand. Strickland wraps two right hands up top, and Du Plessis pays him back with a left. When Strickland finds success on the feet, Du Plessis shoots in for a takedown and puts Strickland on his seat. Strickland climbs to his feet and connect with a right hand before the round closes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 4
The two reach the championship rounds, and Strickland is urged by his corner to attack but he does not come out in the round doing anything differently. The jabs do find their home, and Strickland prods out his front kick, but Du Plessis is able to blast past his defenses to at least partially connect with big strikes. Du Plessis jams his foot to the body and rushes forward throwing hammers, and a right hand at the end of a flurry staggers the former champ and shatters his nose. Strickland retreats, blood pouring out of his beak as he backpedals to stay in the fight. Like a dog with a bone, Du Plessis races after Strickland hoping to use the marked-up face like a bullseye. Du Plessis does not headhunt entirely, still working the body as he works his way in. Strickland ties him up, and Du Plessis elbows him back. Du Plessis reaches him at the end of a left hand, and they clash with right hands. Strickland starts throwing again, only to eat a punch on the nose that makes him have to pause. Du Plessis slowly works his way forward, ducking into a shot and drawing a serious reaction out of his opponent. “Tarzan” looks at the clock that reads 1:40, and Du Plessis finds an opening with a big right hand that the challenger does not love. Strickland starts lowing up on power, and a one-two surprises Du Plessis, who spins at him with a back fist and swarms him with punches. Du Plessis stays right in front of his fellow striker, not getting too reckless to fall into a counter. A one-two from “DDP” plants on the cheek, and he drills Strickland with another as Strickland’s jaw is made of sterner stuff. Du Plessis lumbers forward with looping strikes, letting Strickland’s jabs largely patter of the guard as he targets the body. The horn sounds as Du Plessis gets off a knee to the abdomen.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis

Round 5
Between rounds, the eternally tough Strickland asks for someone to help with his nose. When no one able to help him, he does it himself, snapping his nose back into alignment and slowing some of the immediate bleeding. Strickland stays in first gear, for the most part, jabbing his way into a few punches, but Du Plessis’ diversity of striking and willingness to target anywhere is giving him a major advantage compare to the boxing-heavy challenger. Du Plessis lunges to reach the target with an elbow, and blood flows again. Strickland jabs and dodges a spin, and when Du Plessis resets, he spins the other way and knocks Strickland back a few steps with the kick. Strickland puts a one-two down the pipe, prompting Du Plessis to respond in kind. Strickland finds his home with another pair of punches, and Du Plessis belts him in the belly to make him think twice. After Du Plessis scores a few punches, Strickland gives him a single one back. A spinning wheel kick brushes past the nose, and Du Plessis nearly falls over and is pushed away, gathering his thoughts before Strickland can get his hands on him. Du Plessis swarms his way forward, blitzing the challenger and letting jabs get through so he can hit harder. A few leaping right hands further bust the nose open of Strickland, and he leans down and gets kicked in the face. Du Plessis hand-fights to block punches and throw some back in rapid succession, and even the jabs and leg kicks have an impact. Strickland’s visage turns into a crimson mass, and a head kick does not make the visuals look better. Strickland jabs the body with kicks, and he gets kicked in the side for his attempt. Du Plessis reaches, scores and leans back, not letting the long Strickland get to him. Du Plessis tries for a punctuating takedown, and he gets clipped with a right hand after stuffing it. The two wing a few reckless punches, and another 25 minutes are in the books for these middleweights. The rivalry should be in the books and now part of history, as Strickland raises the arm of who should be the rightful victor: Du Plessis. The next challenger should be right around the corner, and the UFC has options in Nassourdine Imavov or Khamzat Chimaev. When “DDP” gets his next challenge, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-46 Du Plessis)

The Official Result
Dricus Du Plessis def. Sean Strickland via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans du Plessis, believing he has more ways to win with power, wrestling, and improved cardio after nose surgery. He admits to underestimating both fighters in the past. He is unsure about betting and will monitor the line movement. He notes Strickland's incredible cardio and takedown defense but thinks du Plessis's explosiveness and variety give him the edge.

Will monitor line movement; may bet on du Plessis
"I am going to lean drus here I think if we're looking at the two of these Fighters we're looking at their skill sets and their body of work"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks du Plessis, expecting a chaotic fight. He notes du Plessis has power and thrives in chaos, while Strickland lacks power and often goes to decision. He believes du Plessis will land a big shot early and finish Strickland in the first or second round, similar to his win over Whittaker. He worries about du Plessis's cardio in later rounds but thinks it won't matter.

first or second round knockout
"I'm going drus by first or second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Cody sees this as a 50-50 fight but leans Strickland due to his proven cardio, takedown defense, and ability to fight down the stretch. He notes du Plessis has a history of gassing in later rounds and getting finished, while Strickland conserves energy well and has a high output. Cody also mentions a live betting opportunity on Strickland if du Plessis starts strong.

Strickland late (round 4 or 5) at +1500 and +2100 respectively
"I think Sean Strickland wins... it's a good fight that Sean Strickland wins down the stretch."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Vreeland picks du Plessis, noting his submission grappling background and the possibility of winning a decision like Jared Cannonier did against Strickland. He mentions that Strickland landed more punches but Cannonier landed the memorable ones. Vreeland also notes that Strickland's grappling is not great, and du Plessis could use his grappling if needed. He sees it as a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by finish.

"I'm picking DDP too and I will say you know for a lot of people they're like oh I still worried about the cardio because he gased out in like one fight early in his UFC span and I don't …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to win the middleweight title. He believes Strickland's jab-and-volume game plan won't be enough against du Plessis's awkward but violent style and power. He notes du Plessis holds the record for most significant strikes in middleweight history and has proven he can go the distance. Vreeland also mentions he bet two units on du Plessis at +125, showing strong conviction.

"I took him in the spot at plus 125 I put two units on it um I think it should be a pick them"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Fox picks du Plessis, calling it a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by knockout. He notes that du Plessis decimated Robert Whittaker and has good grappling. Fox also mentions that Strickland's emotional state (being mad) is a reason not to pick him. He sees du Plessis winning by knockout or possibly decision.

"I'm gonna take a guy who we is he good Gumby is DDP good yet I know he beat Robert Whitaker but is he good Crush crushed Robert Whitaker I'm taking he decimated Robert Whitaker this is I think a …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

Lucrative James picks Dricus du Plessis to retain his title, citing du Plessis's diverse skill set (spinning kicks, elbows, takedowns, submissions) compared to Strickland's limited pocket boxing. He notes du Plessis's durability and power advantage, the championship mentality, and improved cardio from the first fight. He predicts a clearer win than the split decision last time, possibly by KO or decision.

"my prediction is going to be dricker dupy retains his title and he's going to win the fight via decision or or by KO"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

I'm taking Strickland to win. He has the cardio and output advantage, and he can make du Plessis uncomfortable. If du Plessis doesn't finish him in the first two rounds, his cardio might fade and Strickland can take over. Strickland's awkward pressure style is hard to deal with. I think Strickland weathers the storm, walks him down, batters him, and possibly finishes in the fourth or fifth round. The -145 line is not bad for a fighter with those advantages.

round 4-5 TKO, decision victory
"give me Sean Strickland R for round five TKO and still"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Strickland but emphasizing the prop side. He worries about du Plessis's early power and wrestling but believes Strickland's pace and volume will overwhelm du Plessis in later rounds. He compares it to the Abus Magomedov fight where Strickland survived an early onslaught and took over.

du Plessis round 1 KO at +1000, du Plessis KO at +300, Strickland round 4 at +1500, Strickland round 5 at +2100
"Strickland will be the official pick but I think the prop side is how I'm going to attack this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis, comparing him to Jared Cannonier but with more durability and forward pressure. He notes Strickland's struggles against grapplers and fighters who push forward. He highlights du Plessis's improved cardio, low kicks, and multi-shot combos. He predicts a TKO in round two, possibly after dropping Strickland.

TKO, round 2
"drias dupi in my opinion is going to win this fight by TKO or submission I see this happening at some point in the second round or maybe late in the first"
TKO (punches) R2 2:23 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 70 44% 32 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 1 62 of 104 59% 74 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 0 29 of 54 53% 41 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 9 of 26 34% 9 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 1 33 of 50 66% 33 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 31 of 70 44% 23 of 59 2 of 4 6 of 7 29 of 68 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 62 of 104 59% 38 of 77 11 of 13 13 of 14 41 of 77 8 of 10 13 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 44 50% 16 of 35 2 of 4 4 of 5 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 29 of 54 53% 13 of 36 9 of 10 7 of 8 21 of 44 0 of 0 8 of 10
2 Dricus du Plessis 9 of 26 34% 7 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 33 of 50 66% 25 of 41 2 of 3 6 of 6 20 of 33 8 of 10 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.

Parlay recommended, possible stoppage
"I think this is a mauling I think trick is too busy is tough I think he might be a big deal soon in the division but I just think Robert Whittaker is going to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.

second round knockout
"give me Robert Whitaker to win this fight I'll say second round knockout for him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.

Under 2.5 rounds (-130, -132), Whittaker by KO/TKO
"I took the under two and a half rounds at minus 130 and minus 132. uh Robert Whitaker will be my pick here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.

"Robert Whittaker could out wrestle him if he wanted to. He should be able to just light his ass up with jabs."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.

KO prop on du Plessis at plus money is the only place to look for him
"I'm going Robert Whittaker display build those plans and put on a clinic against drikis."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision
"I do think that the line is wide I do think that trick is duplicity deserves deserves a bet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"fight doesn't go to decision probably my favorite spot considering it's sitting around that minus 160 range the last time I saw it but I think that we're going to see a knockout here and I think it's going to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.

Whittaker by KO/TKO, under 2.5 rounds
"I think Robert Whitaker has got a class pretty much everywhere but the thing with Drake is in terms of a knockout prop is like man he got a hard hat on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.

wins by decision 30-27 or 30-26
"I think Whitaker wins this one by decision 30 27 maybe 30 26 with a dominant third round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.

"There's nothing about his game that should beat Robert Whittaker. Nope, literally nothing."
WIN vs Derek Brunson
TKO (corner stoppage) R2 4:59 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 37 of 84 44% 43 of 90 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:30
Derek Brunson 1 71 of 115 61% 84 of 132 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 12 of 23 52% 18 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:28
Derek Brunson 0 9 of 14 64% 16 of 24 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 25 of 61 40% 25 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Derek Brunson 1 62 of 101 61% 68 of 108 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 37 of 84 44% 27 of 71 9 of 12 1 of 1 30 of 74 3 of 5 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 71 of 115 61% 55 of 97 8 of 9 8 of 9 53 of 95 3 of 3 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 12 of 23 52% 11 of 21 0 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 1 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 2 of 2 4 of 6
2 Dricus du Plessis 25 of 61 40% 16 of 50 9 of 11 0 of 0 22 of 57 3 of 4 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 62 of 101 61% 49 of 86 6 of 7 7 of 8 50 of 89 1 of 1 11 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans towards Dricus du Plessis, despite acknowledging that Derek Brunson has a clear path to victory via wrestling. He is concerned about Brunson's age, chin, and cardio after his loss to Jared Cannonier. Angelo notes that du Plessis is dangerous and can blitz forward, and he believes Brunson may fold under pressure.

"I've had drikas as the plaque the pick I literally I told Jacob earlier I said I think I'm gonna I think I'm gonna flip this pick like thick Brunson should win this but I just can't trust the chin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his power and submission ability, and his ability to fight through fatigue. He notes Brunson's age (39), questionable chin, and talk of retirement. He predicts Brunson may have early success wrestling, but du Plessis will land a big shot and knock him out in the second round.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take drinkas to win this fight I'm gonna say he does eventually catch Brunson on the feet I'm gonna say he knocks out Brunson in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody expects du Plessis to win inside the distance. He notes Brunson's age (39), slowing reflexes, and tendency to get caught with his chin up. He thinks du Plessis's power and durability will be too much as the fight progresses.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Drake has catches them so do places inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Connor picks Derek Brunson, believing his superior wrestling and technical striking will allow him to control the fight. He notes that du Plessis is chaotic and willing to make catastrophic errors, which Brunson can exploit to get takedowns and dominate on the ground. However, Connor acknowledges that if Brunson slows down and du Plessis's relentless pressure takes over, Brunson could fall apart.

"I gotta pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working. But if it does if it's not then you know good on do plus e."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Jacob is confident in Dricus du Plessis, calling Brunson overrated and noting that his takedowns have come against weak wrestlers. He believes Brunson panics when hit and that du Plessis will spark him early. Jacob thinks Brunson will retire after this fight.

"duplessy is gonna dominate this dude he should not be in the UFC anymore he's gonna retire after this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Du Plessis is an athletic freak with big power and explosiveness. Brunson is 39, has durability issues, and was knocked out by Jared Cannonier. Du Plessis will land big shots as the fight goes on and knock Brunson out.

du Plessis by knockout
"I believe that Brunson does have a car or durability issue still... I have no doubt that he'll be able to land that knockout blow here to get his hand raised so look for duplex's money line or even duplexes …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul agrees with Cody, picking du Plessis inside the distance. He thinks Brunson will have early success but fade, and du Plessis will catch him. He likes the inside distance prop at -110.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Rick is inside the distance is the play here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by guillotine choke, citing du Plessis' underrated grappling and Brunson's tendency to shoot for panic takedowns. He believes du Plessis will finish Brunson in the second round.

Guillotine finish predicted, second round finish
"I'm gonna go with dricus du plessis with his guillotine... I think he will beat Derek Branson by a second round finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Zane also picks Brunson, citing his technical advantages everywhere and the likelihood that he will get early takedowns against du Plessis's wild entries. He notes that du Plessis's wrestling is messy and he often puts himself in bad positions, which Brunson can capitalize on. Zane adds that while du Plessis has great cardio and durability, Brunson's power and top control should be enough to secure a win.

"I'm gonna pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working."
WIN vs Darren Till
Submission (face crank) R3 2:43 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 35 of 70 50% 58 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 86 of 147 58% 117 of 197 6 of 6 100% 3 0 5:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 6 of 12 50% 9 of 15 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 60 of 85 70% 82 of 126 3 of 3 100% 1 0 3:56
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 18 of 33 54% 38 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 10 of 28 35% 19 of 37 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:27
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 35 of 70 50% 26 of 57 6 of 9 3 of 4 29 of 60 1 of 1 5 of 9
Darren Till 86 of 147 58% 69 of 123 4 of 7 13 of 17 28 of 59 25 of 40 33 of 48
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 9
Darren Till 60 of 85 70% 54 of 77 2 of 3 4 of 5 4 of 6 25 of 38 31 of 41
2 Dricus du Plessis 18 of 33 54% 12 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Darren Till 10 of 28 35% 4 of 21 1 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 2
3 Dricus du Plessis 11 of 25 44% 9 of 20 2 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darren Till 16 of 34 47% 11 of 25 1 of 2 4 of 7 14 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Darren Till

Angelo picks Till as an underdog, believing Till's boxing and range control will be too much for du Plessis, who rushes forward with his chin up. He notes Till's recent struggles with injuries and mental health, and a DUI, making him nervous about his moneyline bet. However, he argues that Till's losses came to elite fighters who would also beat du Plessis.

Moneyline bet placed earlier (odds not specified).
"Till's gonna be the pick here I do have a money line bet on him I've had that for a little while now I'm nervous about it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his volume, power, and submission game, while questioning Darren Till's mentality and recent form. He notes Till has been submitted multiple times and has low volume. He expects du Plessis to win by second round submission, but acknowledges Till has a puncher's chance.

du Plessis wins by second round submission
"I like Rodriguez to win this fight I like and win by finish I'll take drikas to win by I'll say second round submission win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody picks Darren Till as a dog, citing the stylistic matchup. He notes Till is a clean counter-striker with a nasty left hand, while du Plessis leads with his chin up and is wild. He thinks du Plessis will panic shoot takedowns, which Till can defend and counter. He acknowledges Till's low output and untrustworthiness but sees this as a good spot for him.

"I'm in the same boat as you I want to bet him he's the underdog right first dog that we like that plus money looks good but he's such an untrustworthy guy Darren till"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Connor picks du Plessis, citing his relentless pace, durability, and power. He notes Till is low output, inconsistent, and does his best work in the first round. Connor believes du Plessis will survive early trouble and overwhelm Till with constant pressure, as Till's confidence has eroded after recent losses and injuries.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I trust Rick is duplexes just to go out there and do the one thing. I trust because duplexes to show up and be like an absolutely brutal puncher, just a clubber for three rounds, no matter what."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his massive output advantage over Darren Till. He notes Till has never landed 50 strikes in a UFC fight, while du Plessis landed 113 against Brad Tavares. Levi believes du Plessis's awkward but effective striking, power, and grappling (body lock, back takes) will overwhelm Till if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges Till's chance to land a sniper shot but thinks du Plessis will outwork and break him. Levi agrees with the line movement from -135 to -190.

Mentions possibility of du Plessis winning by submission (back take choke).
"I got drika's duplicity to look awkward out there to look stiff to look rigid but when he is still on the chin Till's gonna be like God damn"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Lock picks du Plessis to get his hand raised, and recommends buying stocks on him on PredictionStrike at $1.54, as he is half the price of Till and will see a solid bump with a win. He is not interested in du Plessis on the moneyline at -180 due to the question mark that Till brings, but sees PredictionStrike as a way to exploit value. For Till, he suggests the moneyline as a dog rather than investing on PredictionStrike at $3.00.

"I'm gonna go on the opposite side here I do think duplexes is the one that gets Sunrise but uh yeah I would likely buy some stocks here on prediction strike on duplexes and hopefully cash this weekend"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Paul leans towards Darren Till as a dog, noting the matchup is good for Till because du Plessis is not an elite wrestler and leaves his chin up. He thinks Till can hang back and pick him off. However, he is hesitant because Till throws low volume and is hard to trust with money. He decides slightly on Till due to the plus money.

"I'm gonna decide ever so slightly on the side of Darren till in this matchup but I don't know if I can trust him with my money Cody"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Darren Till, citing Till's lack of recent form and physical decline. He believes du Plessis is a real athlete with power and grappling ability, and will mix in takedowns after making Till cautious with his striking. He predicts du Plessis will finish Till via mounted guillotine or ground and pound in the later rounds.

"I'm going with dracus to bless his over Darren till"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis, agreeing that Till's low output and inconsistency are major issues. He notes du Plessis is a messy but relentless fighter who will keep coming, and Till's confidence is shaken. Zane acknowledges du Plessis could get knocked out but trusts his durability and pace.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I'll pick the Plessy as well, but man, someday the wheels are going to fly off that duplex in the most spectacular fashion imaginable."
WIN vs Brad Tavares
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 82 of 150 54% 98 of 167 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:01
Brad Tavares 0 113 of 212 53% 123 of 222 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 10 of 13 76% 25 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:58
Brad Tavares 0 14 of 26 53% 23 of 35 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:18
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 33 of 59 55% 33 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Brad Tavares 0 39 of 75 52% 39 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 39 of 78 50% 40 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Brad Tavares 0 60 of 111 54% 61 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 82 of 150 54% 55 of 113 21 of 31 6 of 6 69 of 132 12 of 16 1 of 2
Brad Tavares 113 of 212 53% 79 of 169 17 of 21 17 of 22 97 of 192 14 of 18 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 10 of 13 76% 8 of 10 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 8 3 of 3 1 of 2
Brad Tavares 14 of 26 53% 10 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 4 9 of 20 3 of 4 2 of 2
2 Dricus du Plessis 33 of 59 55% 19 of 41 10 of 14 4 of 4 28 of 52 5 of 7 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 39 of 75 52% 28 of 61 5 of 6 6 of 8 33 of 66 6 of 9 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 39 of 78 50% 28 of 62 9 of 14 2 of 2 35 of 72 4 of 6 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 60 of 111 54% 41 of 89 10 of 12 9 of 10 55 of 106 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans toward Dricus du Plessis, noting his explosive striking and leg kicks, as well as his grappling ability. He is concerned about Tavares' inactivity and du Plessis' cardio over three rounds. He calls it a no-bet fight due to uncertainty.

"I do think i'm leaning towards dracus here this is a no bet fight for me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady is confident in Dricus du Plessis, citing his 100% finish rate and power. He believes du Plessis will knock out Brad Tavares, who has been knocked out three times before. He notes Tavares has good takedown defense, so the fight stays standing, where du Plessis's power prevails.

du Plessis by first round knockout
"give me duplicity to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody thinks du Plessis's unorthodox power will be too much for Tavares, who is serviceable but not elite. He expects du Plessis to land a big shot and finish, though he notes Tavares could outpoint if it stays at range.

"I'm gonna go with the places to get the job done"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his awkward but violent style and power. He notes that du Plessis has a knack for finding finishes and that Tavares' chin has been cracked before. However, he is concerned about Tavares' durability and decision-winning ability if the fight goes the distance. Levi missed the line at plus money and is not interested at -155, so he does not bet.

Missed the line; no bet at -155; would have bet at plus money.
"my pick is drika's duplicity... i missed the line on drikas... minus 155 i'm no longer interested"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The host initially leaned Tavares but flipped to du Plessis after considering Tavares's history of being knocked out by power strikers. Du Plessis has knockout power and speed, and Tavares has been finished by strikers like Shabazyan and Whittaker. Du Plessis by KO is the preferred bet rather than the moneyline.

du Plessis by KO at +165 to +185
"i think i'm going to end up on the duplex c side here i do think uh his speed will eventually catch up to tavares"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul also picks du Plessis, noting he missed the better price. He thinks du Plessis's power will be the difference, but isn't overly confident.

"I'm going with two pluses to get the job done as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by submission in the second round. He highlights du Plessis's grappling credentials, including a guillotine choke over Yannick Bahati, and his ability to pull submissions from standing positions. He notes Brad Tavares has good takedown defense but that du Plessis's power and unorthodox entries will be the difference, predicting a guillotine finish.

submission in round 2
"i can see him getting a guillotine finish over brad tavares in the second round of this contest"
Khamzat Chimaev - Fight History
LOSS vs Sean Strickland
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 0 98 of 240 40% 137 of 283 9 of 13 69% 0 0 7:16
Sean Strickland 0 123 of 312 39% 160 of 355 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 0 of 3 0% 17 of 23 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:47
Sean Strickland 0 0 of 0 --- 12 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Khamzat Chimaev 0 10 of 19 52% 18 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Sean Strickland 0 15 of 38 39% 29 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:01
3 Khamzat Chimaev 0 29 of 89 32% 29 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 43 of 100 43% 43 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Khamzat Chimaev 0 37 of 72 51% 45 of 80 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:54
Sean Strickland 0 34 of 86 39% 38 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Khamzat Chimaev 0 22 of 57 38% 28 of 63 6 of 7 85% 0 0 1:31
Sean Strickland 0 31 of 88 35% 38 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 98 of 240 40% 52 of 163 35 of 65 11 of 12 96 of 237 2 of 3 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 123 of 312 39% 118 of 302 5 of 10 0 of 0 119 of 306 1 of 1 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 of 3 0% 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Khamzat Chimaev 10 of 19 52% 5 of 11 4 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 15 of 38 39% 15 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 33 0 of 0 3 of 5
3 Khamzat Chimaev 29 of 89 32% 17 of 62 10 of 25 2 of 2 29 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 43 of 100 43% 42 of 98 1 of 2 0 of 0 43 of 100 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Khamzat Chimaev 37 of 72 51% 20 of 49 11 of 17 6 of 6 37 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 34 of 86 39% 33 of 84 1 of 2 0 of 0 34 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Khamzat Chimaev 22 of 57 38% 10 of 41 10 of 14 2 of 2 20 of 54 2 of 3 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 31 of 88 35% 28 of 83 3 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 87 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Middleweight Title Fight: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-575), Strickland (+425)

Round 1
Champion Chimaev (15-0, 9-0 UFC) and former titleholder Strickland (30-7, 17-7 UFC) have proved they are a league of their own atop the middleweight division. Strickland jumped the line thanks to his dominant performance in February against Anthony Hernandez, and his trash talk has certainly sold the fight. Little more needs to be said other than that referee Herb Dean needs extra security in the cage to make sure there is not a fight before he authorizes it. If you had bet that these two would not touch gloves, shockingly you would be wrong. They touched gloves twice and spoke to one another about bringing their best or some such chatter. It’s on with the show.
Chimaev is smiling all the way into the fight, and their additional shared glove touch opens the match. Chimaev pushes forward and hits a takedown in the first 15 seconds. Strickland leans with his back on the wall while on the canvas, and he wrests his way to his feet but is mat returned and dumped on his hands a few times. Strickland keeps climbing to the side with Chimaev on his back, and Chimaev elects to take Strickland from behind and get both hooks in. Strickland keeps hold of Chimaev’s left wrist with both hands, and he sits up again to get to his knees. Chimaev leans on him with his whole body weight, wrenching Strickland down when Strickland partially stands. Chimaev hops on to take the back and rolls Strickland over, getting his back take again. Chimaev keeps one hook on the side rather than locking up a body triangle, with Strickland’s grasp on the wrists. Chimaev cannot set anything up from this position.
Strickland twists from side to side, and he turns over to recover while Chimaev is on him like a cheap suit. Strickland turns to get on a knee and post off, and Chimaev strips it away and holds on from behind. Chimaev tries to drag Strickland to his back again, and Strickland rolls over as he frantically attempts to improve his position. Chimaev steps into a high mount, landing once before Strickland can push him away. The champ lifts Strickland up and slams him down on the ground with emphasis, but it is his own nose who is bleeding on the bridge of it. Chimaev springs into action by attacking Strickland’s neck, going for a rear-naked choke he switches to a face crank. Strickland survives it all and makes it to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 2
The middleweights meander towards one another, and they again bump fists. Strickland starts striking, putting his jab in the champ’s face a few times. Chimaev winds up with a right hand, and Strickland rolls with it and gets his jab going a few more times. Chimaev hurls a big left, and Strickland answers him back with an overhand right. Chimaev slowly pressures forward, keeping his guard up to parry a few punches, but Strickland still catches him with a scooping right. Strickland puts a one-two on the cheek and uses his jab to maintain his preferred range. They both trade jabs, with Strickland looping a right hand around the guard. Chimaev bull-rushes his way forward, and Strickland rebounds off the fence to wind up in top control. The audience is practically electric when Strickland establishes himself on top, and he starts dropping down strikes.
Chimaev pushes off with a butterfly guard and brings his leg up to get out, and he works back to his feet. Strickland lets him up, lands a right hand and pushes Chimaev over when Chimaev fails on another takedown. Chimaev flops to his back, possibly injured or just fatigued, and Strickland walks over and punches him in the face. Strickland pounds on the champ with his free left hand, and “USA” chants echo so loudly in the arena that little else can be heard. Strickland shuts Chimaev down in half guard, smothering Chimaev’s mouth with his hand or otherwise flustering him with short but effective offense. Strickland does not sell out or go for broke on anything, instead riding out the round until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 3
There is a glove touch to resume the action, and both men start off with jabs. Chimaev lunges behind a jab with a right hand, and he whiffs on two subsequent punches. Jabs go flying from the middleweights, with Strickland doubling and tripling them up. Chimaev kicks both sides of the body, and he is met with a guard-piercing jab. Strickland takes a right hand on the chin and throws back with big power. Chimaev goes to the body with another kick, forcing Strickland to lower his right hand to protect his liver. This opens up more jabs from the champ, who is content to trade hands while slowly advancing. Strickland puts a one-two on the nose, wrapping a right hook around the guard as Chimaev motions for him to hit him more. Chimaev wings a left hand that Strickland evades by leaning back, and his right hand after it also misses the target as Strickland sways.
The challenger scores a heavy right hand, and his nose starts to leak a bit after absorbing swings from the Chechen. Chimaev stays in front of Strickland pushing out jabs, and fans start screaming “F--k you, Khamzat!” Strickland keeps his jab and two going, and when he lands it every now and then, Chimaev turns to the side to stick his tongue out at someone. Chimaev’s punches have bloodied up Strickland’s nose in a major way, and Strickland meets him with his own piston-like jab that has damaged his beak. Strickland shoulder-rolls the worst of the hurled hands coming his way, and he stumbles off-balance when dodging a right hand. Chimaev keeps after him, but he is taking shots. The close round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 4
The championship rounds are here again, and Chimaev lets out a hoot. They bump fists, and Chimaev admits his affection towards Strickland, telling him he loves him. Strickland does not budge, instead flashing his jab while Chimaev comes at him. Strickland lets off a kick to the side, and he snaps the head back as he keeps his jab in the champ’s face. Chimaev goes twice to the body, and Strickland headhunts him back. Chimaev winds up with a power right hand, shaking Strickland up with it but not hurting him. Strickland does not move out of first gear, with jabs plus twos his primary weapon. It is all upstairs, while Chimaev targets the body and lead leg a few times. Strickland clips Chimaev coming in, and he absorbs a harsh body kick that lands with an audible thud. Strickland drives a right hand through the guard, and Chimaev goads him on for more. Chimaev’s wide swings leave him open to straight punches from the challenger.
Chimaev jabs the body and loops a right hand up top, and the jabs have fully bloodied him up as well. Chimaev hurls a right hand, and Strickland backs up and bounds off the fencing to reset. Chimaev meets him on the reset and wings another right hand, with Strickland giving him pause in the form of a straight right hand. Chimaev kicks the body, and Strickland’s only target is the Chechen’s face. Chimaev remains active with all types of attacks, while Strickland still will not deviate with anything of note. Chimaev shoots in for a double and scoops Strickland off his feet, depositing him down to the canvas with gusto. Strickland moves to his knees to stand up, and Chimaev is behind him dragging him back down. Chimaev hangs from behind, kneeing the challenger a few times before the frame finishes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 5
It could be all tied up, or Chimaev could be ahead, going into the last round. They raise their hands to the crowd to lather them up a bit more, and then share a clap of hands to signal good sportsmanship. Chimaev springs after a takedown, landing it and grounding the challenger. Strickland explodes his way back up and puts his back to the wall, taking a look at the clock that reads 4:20 at the time. Chimaev’s mat return effort fails, with the two hitting the ground in 50-50 position with their elbows hooked. Strickland gets out of it first to stand, and Chimaev follows him and pulls him to the floor. Strickland gets out and frees himself, and he starts jabbing the champion again. Chimaev swings back with much heavier blows, but they are less accurate than the straight strikes offered by the man formerly known as “Tarzan.” Chimaev counters over the top with a right hand, and Strickland puts his fist on Chimaev’s nose a few times. Strickland freezes Chimaev for a second with a solid right hand, and Chimaev shakes it out to keep plodding forward.
Chimaev kicks the ribs as he moves forward, and he gets popped with a clean left. Strickland offers up his own front kick and a snapping jab, with Chimaev going to the body and a right hand up top. The overhand from Chimaev gets through, with Strickland now jabbing with both his left hand and the ball of his foot. Chimaev charges for a takedown with 80 seconds left, and Strickland posts off his arm to recover position and lean on the cage with one knee. Strickland stands, and Chimaev trips him up again. Chimaev tries to toss Strickland on his head, and he fails as the two split up with 30 seconds to go. Chimaev raises his hand in the air, and Strickland pegs him with straight punches. Chimaev goes all-out with a right hand, and Strickland rolls with it and flicks out a jab. Double jabs from Strickland allow him to avoid another looping punch, and he pushes out a few front kicks to stop Chimaev from reaching him as time expires. Buckle up, buckaroos, as we have gone the distance. Strickland motions the belt around his waist, expecting that he got the job done. The match was extremely loud and incredibly close, and both teams celebrate after 25 minutes of combat. The athletes share an embrace, appearing to squash their beef and dispose of any shared bad blood.
When the scores are announced, judges are clearly split in an indication that this may not be the last time these two meet. The crowd goes wild for the American, while Chimaev himself wraps the belt back around Strickland's waist. In a face turn, Strickland apologizes to fans of all religions, admitting he went too far when trying to sell the fight. Chimaev leaves the cage, not interested in a post-fight interview as his unblemished record is done like dinner. The newly minted champ thanks everyone for the support they gave him, and he celebrates bringing the middleweight title back to the U.S. The song “Real American” plays in the loudspeakers as Strickland leaves the cage, high-fiving and taking pictures with fans on the way out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (48-47 Strickland)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (48-47 Strickland)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (48-47 Strickland)

The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Khamzat Chimaev via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev, citing his dominant wrestling and control. He believes Strickland's takedown defense (76%) won't be enough against Chimaev's elite level. He notes Chimaev's cardio looked fine in his 25-minute fight with DDP. He expects Chimaev to get takedowns and control each round, similar to Islam vs JDM. He mentions Strickland's conflicting training stories and thinks Chimaev's wrestling is too much.

Angelo says he may bet on Chimaev but wants to root for Strickland for chaos. He mentions Chimaev moving up to light heavyweight if he wins.
"I don't think Sean Strickland wins this fight. I don't see him winning here at all. Frankly, I don't think there's any way he can stay off his back."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo is very confident in Khamzat Chimaev, stating that nobody has stood up on him and that his wrestling is too good. He dismisses arguments about Chimaev getting tired in the Gilbert Burns fight, noting it was at a different weight class years ago. He expects a dominant, possibly boring fight.

"Hamzot wins this fight. It's very straightforward."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady confidently picks Khamzat Chimaev, expecting him to wrestle and grapple. He notes Strickland's win over Fluffy Hernandez had an asterisk due to a poor game plan. Brady believes Chimaev will take down Strickland, take his back, and finish with a submission in the first round. He acknowledges Strickland could make it interesting if he survives the early rounds, but expects an early finish.

"I'm going Hamzat Chimaev. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Cody picks Chimaev, citing his superior wrestling and ability to take Strickland down early. He notes Chimaev's improved pacing and control, as seen against Whittaker and Du Plessis, and believes he can neutralize Strickland's jab and volume striking. Cody expects Chimaev to win by decision, as Strickland is durable and hard to submit, but he also mentions live betting Strickland in later rounds if Chimaev tires.

Chimaev by decision (plus 300)
"I do have Chimaya. It's no shocker there. I do think he makes it look easy if he sticks to the game plan."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing Chimaev's wrestling is the best in MMA history as a takedown artist, better than Khabib or Islam. He notes Strickland's mental fragility when pressured, and that Chimaev can wrestle for five rounds as shown against Dricus. Connor sees Strickland's only path as winning late rounds if Chimaev gasses, but doubts Strickland can rally convincingly.

Odds: Chimaev opened -400, now -600; Strickland opened +300, now +425
"I got to pick Chimaev. And I don't think it's going to be a particularly difficult looking fight for him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Daniel believes Chimaev's relentless wrestling and takedown pressure will be too much for Strickland, especially in the early rounds. He notes that Chimaev is a different level of wrestler compared to Fluffy Hernandez, who only attempted one takedown against Strickland. Daniel expects Chimaev to get takedowns and wear Strickland down, though he acknowledges Strickland has a chance if it goes to championship rounds.

"I think Hamzad's gonna show it Saturday night. I think he's on a different level. I think he's gonna come out here and still be the UFC middleweight champion."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)

The host does not make a pre-fight bet on this fight. He considers Chimaev unplayable at 1.17 odds and notes that Strickland is a live underdog but has a tendency to be passive. He prefers to live bet this fight, watching how much energy Chimaev exerts early. He mentions that if Strickland starts fast and makes Chimaev work, he could win rounds 4 and 5, but he doesn't commit to a pick.

No pre-fight bet. Suggests live betting. Mentions Strickland at +405 odds.
"Straight away, a bet on Chimayv is off the table. He's unplayable... all the upside is on Strickland here. And it's an absolute no-brainer to either bet Strickland or pass on betting the money line on this fight."
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Confident picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Khamzat Chimaev

Predicted method: Submission Round 2. Chimaev remains undefeated with dominant wins over top competition, including a submission of Robert Whittaker and a decision over Dricus du Plessis. His relentless wrestling and 5.29 takedowns per round will be a nightmare for Strickland, who has only 76% takedown defense and struggles against pressure grapplers. Strickland's high-volume striking (6.04 SLpM) is effective, but he lacks the power to deter Chimaev's takedowns. Expect Chimaev to secure takedowns early, control the fight, and eventually find a submission or win a clear decision.

Chimaev by submission +105
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Jacob is confident in Chimaev, expecting him to be more aggressive now that he has the belt. He thinks Chimaev will finish Strickland early, similar to the Whittaker fight, and that Strickland's scrambling will lead to mistakes. He notes that Chimaev was tapping Strickland in training.

"I think he gets it done. I think he gets done early."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Lucrative James believes Khamzat Chimaev is a generational talent and one of the greatest fighters ever. He argues that Chimaev's early storm of wrestling and grappling will be too much for Strickland, who has been tapped by Chimaev in training. He predicts Chimaev will submit Strickland in round two, as Strickland's better takedown defense will lead to giving up his back. He notes Strickland's elite anti-grappling but thinks Chimaev's skill set is superior.

"I actually got Hamzat winning this fight via submission. I'm going to say round two."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The host picks Chimaev by submission in rounds 1-2, citing his grappling dominance and Strickland's defensive grappling vulnerabilities. He believes Chimaev will come out hungry and get an early takedown, eventually forcing a tap. He notes that if it goes later, Strickland could scramble, but expects an early finish.

Chimaev by submission, round 1 or 2
"I think he dominates Strickland, forces Strickland to tap, and we get Shamayv by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Paul leans Chimaev but is not heavily invested. He thinks Chimaev's wrestling and pressure will be too much, but he also sees value in late-round Strickland props if Chimaev fades. He mentions Chimaev's health issues and training changes, but ultimately expects a Chimaev win, possibly by submission.

Chimaev by submission (minus 110)
"I think Chamay in the first two rounds probably ragdolls Strickland around like he does to everybody and maybe gets a sub."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The MMA Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev despite wanting Strickland to win. He believes Chimaev's wrestling is on another level, citing his dominant performance against Du Plessis. He notes Strickland's takedown defense is good but not elite, and Chimaev's ability to secure back position and threaten chokes will be decisive. He predicts a submission by d'arce choke in the first or second round.

submission by d'arce choke in first or second round
"I'm actually going to go with Hamza Chamev winning this one by Dash Choke early in the fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Zane picks Chimaev confidently, citing his elite wrestling as a massive advantage over Strickland. He notes that Chimaev's takedowns are explosive and dynamic, unlike Anthony Hernandez who Strickland handled. Zane believes Strickland's confidence folds when he gets hurt, and Chimaev will dominate early rounds, making a comeback unlikely. He acknowledges Strickland could win late rounds if he stuffs takedowns, but sees that as improbable.

Odds: Chimaev opened -400, now -600; Strickland opened +300, now +425
"I got to pick Chimaev. And I don't think it's going to be a particularly difficult looking fight for him."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 13 of 29 44% 45 of 68 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:53
Khamzat Chimaev 0 37 of 47 78% 529 of 567 12 of 17 70% 0 0 21:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 0 of 0 --- 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 1 of 2 50% 131 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:47
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 0 of 2 0% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 4 of 5 80% 79 of 81 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:47
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 1 of 2 50% 9 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 19 of 22 86% 156 of 164 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:46
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 2 of 5 40% 8 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 4 of 6 66% 76 of 85 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:26
5 Dricus du Plessis 0 10 of 20 50% 19 of 32 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:53
Khamzat Chimaev 0 9 of 12 75% 87 of 100 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 13 of 29 44% 10 of 24 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 3 of 4
Khamzat Chimaev 37 of 47 78% 28 of 36 3 of 5 6 of 6 12 of 19 0 of 0 25 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 4 of 5 80% 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4
3 Dricus du Plessis 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 19 of 22 86% 19 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 19 of 22
4 Dricus du Plessis 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 4 of 6 66% 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Dricus du Plessis 10 of 20 50% 8 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 4
Khamzat Chimaev 9 of 12 75% 6 of 9 1 of 1 2 of 2 8 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Middleweight Title Fight: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-238), du Plessis (+195)

Round 1
Let’s be honest: this is what you came here to see. The other fights tonight were pretty solid, nothing extraordinary with mixed results featuring some duds and a few good knockouts. This middleweight championship battle is one that people have marked on their calendar the day it was announced, and it was one fans have been waiting for since Chimaev (14-0, 8-0 UFC) won in the Octagon three times in 2020. The so-called boogeyman has his time to shine tonight, but he will have to get through Du Plessis (23-2, 9-0 UFC). Irresistible force, meet immovable object. No one has gotten past “DDP” in the UFC to date, but Chimaev is expected by the betting populace and fan contingent to go home with the belt. Referee Marc Goddard takes the final assignment of the evening, bringing the two 185ers to the center of the cage. They are so fired up and intense that they crash into each other when staring down, but they do touch gloves after all. Let’s all take a deep breath here. It’s on with the show.
Chimaev pushes out a front kick and shoots for a double, and Du Plessis rolls through it but ends up winding up on his back within 15 seconds. Du Plessis briefly considers a guillotine choke off his back, but when Chimaev considers a Von Preux shoulder choke, Du Plessis abandons it. Chimaev is already in side control in the center of the cage, and he wraps up the champ’s right arm in a crucifix position. Chimaev starts pounding on the side of the head, and a few punches land to the back of the head as Goddard is paying attention. Chimaev keeps beating on the downed champion with short but scoring punches, and Du Plessis bucks and kicks to try to get out. With Du Plessis’ face turned to Chimaev’s chest, the punches have little on them even as they add up like a big brother bullying a young sibling.
Chimaev keeps smacking his foe with any free hand, and he flirts with an arm-triangle choke when Du Plessis wrenches his arm free. Du Plessis’ bucks and twists allow him to put his feet on the fence, and he pushes off of it while not hooking his toes in the fencing. Chimaev stays tight as a drum on top, bopping “Stillknocks” with his irritating little punches. When Chimaev steps to get to mount, Du Plessis illegally grabs the cage to reposition himself and Goddard admonishes him for it. Chimaev knees him in the side once or twice when he puts Du Plessis flat on his back again. Goddard asks the challenger to do more in this position, and it is Du Plessis who twists all the way around not just to get out of the bad position but escapes the brief back take. The champ thinks about another guillotine choke, and Chimaev flips him over and elbows him to concluded the one-sided round. As a rule-based reminder, 10-8 rounds now must have damage as a mandatory criteria.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev

Round 2
The fighters strike for a second or two before Chimaev advances in pursuit of a takedown. Du Plessis defends well enough to crawl his way to the cage wall without ever fully going down, but Chimaev is behind him ragdolling him. Du Plessis stands, and the challenger hurls him right back down to the floor from behind. Du Plessis works his way back to the fencing again all while Chimaev clings to him like malicious Saran wrap. Chimaev knees him in the back and side a few times, and Du Plessis appears unconcerned but is completely nullified a round and a half in. Chimaev spams knees to the posterior as Du Plessis posts off his hands, and he wrenches the South African to the floor and starts fishing for chokes or face cranks.
The champ recognizes the peril he is in and hand-fights to defend any submission from coming close to materializing, so Chimaev strips his other leg out and puts him on both knees once more. Chimaev tries to climb onto the back and get a hook in, but he settles for knees to the thigh. The audience wants more. Du Plessis defends left hands to the side of his head, and only a few get through. Chimaev reaches either arm around the chest like a mean-spirited seatbelt, and Du Plessis uses two-on-one wrist control to thwart it from progressing. Chimaev lands a knee or two in the ribs, fully controlling “DDP” and disallowing him from landing a single noteworthy blow. Chimaev hangs on until the round ends, and Du Plessis winks at him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 3
Du Plessis says hello with a quick kick, and he scores a left hand as Chimaev advances. Chimaev ignores it as he is already after a takedown, where he lifts up the champion in the air and hurls him to the floor. Du Plessis stands up, and Chimaev uses the body lock to toss him back down, where he moves right to side control. Chimaev smothers his man, and he moves to set up another crucifix as Goddard asks for more activity than little swatting punches. Chimaev secures the crucifix he was seeking by looping his legs around the champ’s right arm, and he pummels him with short, annoying fists. The strike totals may be through the roof, and the damage begins mounting as Du Plessis’ face is busted open a smidge.
Chimaev stays in the dominant position smacking him upside the head, and Du Plessis has absolutely no answers but motions a thumbs-up to his team as if he knows something we don’t even as Chimaev has landed well over 200 strikes on him in the last two-and-a-half rounds. Chimaev switchers to elbows, and blood flows a bit more from the wound on the champion’s face. Chimaev releases the grip on the arm and steps into full mount, knowing that Du Plessis will turn to give up his back. Du Plessis defends a choke grip but Chimaev has both hooks in elbowing the champ repeatedly. Du Plessis sits up, and Chimaev threatens with a brabo choke as the bell sounds. When the champion stands, he shrugs.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev

Round 4
The championship rounds are here, and Du Plessis is not broken and signals to the crowd to get pumped up. Chimaev tosses out a front kick, and he backs off to avoid a one-two. Chimaev tries for a body kick that he turns to a takedown, and Du Plessis spins out of it to stop the first try. The challenger is a dog with a bone when it comes to the grappling, and he succeeds in wrestling the champion down to the mat. Du Plessis positions himself towards the fencing while on his knees, and Chimaev works on either side of his body with peppering knees. Du Plessis explodes back to his feet, and Chimaev mat returns him with relative ease in a real “there’s levels to this” showcase. Du Plessis may manage to again get to his knees, and Goddard tells Chimaev to do more than knee him in the backside. Chimaev answers by pulling the champ away from the cage and putting him down. Du Plessis stands, and the mat return is almost instant. Few champs have been wholly dominated in such a fashion.
Du Plessis feebly rolls to try to escape, and this only puts him at a disadvantageous position with Chimaev hooking up a crucifix by keeping his knee on the champ’s right bicep. Du Plessis is warned for toes in the fence when trying to push off the wall, and after some light knees from Chimaev, Goddard stands them up. Du Plessis strikes with a body kick, and the marauding challenger hurls him to the ground. Once Du Plessis hits the mat, he shows someone a thumbs-up, but it is an empty gesture. With Du Plessis wearing down, Chimaev goes after a few chokes that do not materialize. Twenty minutes are in the books.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 5
Chimaev starts off the last round with a head kick, and he blocks one that comes back his way. Du Plessis puts a one-two on the chin, and Chimaev responds with a jab and a takedown shot. The South African cannot get away before the challenger’s arms are wrapped around him taking him to the floor. Chimaev quickly sets up a crucifix again, where he starts beating on the champ with soft punches. Du Plessis uses a kimura grip to sweep, allowing him to get to his knees and out of the bad spot. Chimaev holds onto him from behind, dragging Du Plessis to the ground the moment Du Plessis stands.
In a moment of explosive desperation, Du Plessis manages to flip Chimaev to his back, where he jumps for a guillotine choke in a move that may even have Dustin Poirier screaming at the fighters—since he is in the booth upstairs, and not home yelling at his television. The choke has nothing on it with the two so sweaty, and Chimaev pops out and get in the guard. With 90 seconds to go, Goddard stands them up. Chimaev puts out a triple jab to disrupt the advancing champion, and Du Plessis misses with a high kick. Chimaev has two low kicks score, and he backpedals when getting cracked with a right hand. Chimaev shoots deep, and Du Plessis sprawls and starts hacking at Chimaev in the temple. Chimaev keeps pushing through the hips, and Du Plessis manages to throw the challenger to his back with 30 seconds to go. Du Plessis wraps up a rear-naked choke, but he falls off the side to lose it. Chimaev clings to an arm, and Du Plessis elbows him in the top of the head. Chimaev wags his finger at him, and the one-sided fight comes to a merciful conclusion with the new coronation of a champion coming momentarily.
At long last, Khamzat Chimaev has recognized the potential many saw in him years ago. He is now the undisputed middleweight champion, and he ragdolled a man that many thought might be his match. When speaking to commentator Joe Rogan, Chimaev does not say a great deal in English or through a translator, but asks to get paid. When “Borz” has his first defense scheduled, you better you bet we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (50-44 Chimaev)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Dricus Du Plessis via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo acknowledges the common narrative that DDP wins if he survives early, but he questions Chimaev's cardio criticism, noting his tough weight cuts at 170. He believes the skill gap is wider than people think and that Chimaev can win multiple rounds. He picks Chimaev as the attacker rather than the survivor, despite rooting for DDP.

"I am going to pick Hamzot, though. I think the skill gap is wider than most people think it is."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He thinks Chimaev will get takedowns easily and put du Plessis in bad spots early. He worries about Chimaev's cardio if the fight goes to the third round, as du Plessis has shown good cardio and could take over late. He notes Chimaev has never seen a fourth or fifth round. He sees it as Chimaev early or du Plessis late, but leans Chimaev by early submission.

Chimaev by submission, round 1
"Give me Hamzad to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by first round submission in this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Connor picks Chimaev, arguing that du Plessis has never faced a wrestler of Chimaev's caliber and that his takedown defense is poor, as shown in the Derek Brunson fight where he was taken down in 10 seconds. He believes Chimaev is the best one-round fighter in MMA history and will likely finish du Plessis early. However, he acknowledges that if Chimaev doesn't get the finish, du Plessis's resilience and ability to weather storms could make it competitive.

Chimaev opened at -200, currently -237; du Plessis opened at +170, currently +202
"I think Khamzat Chimaev is going to be champion by the end of the week. And I'm pretty certain of that."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The host believes Chimaev's wrestling, top control, and submission game will be too much for du Plessis. He predicts Chimaev will secure a submission within two rounds, becoming the new middleweight champion. The host emphasizes Chimaev's grappling advantage as the key factor.

submission within two rounds
"I think he's going to struggle with the wrestling top control and submission game of Chamay, which should lead to Hamzat earning that gold and finding the submission within two rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to survive the early grappling onslaught from Khamzat Chimaev and take over as the fight progresses. He believes du Plessis's Brazilian jiu-jitsu background and experience against high-level grapplers will allow him to avoid being finished in round one. As Chimaev's cardio fades, du Plessis will turn the fight into a striking match and eventually finish him with a TKO in round three or four. The Guru compares this to Chimaev's fights with Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, where he struggled once the fight went past the first round.

TKO round 3 or 4; Dricus du Plessis wins by TKO up against the cage; less than 21.5 round one significant strikes for du Plessis (from PrizePicks segment)
"I think Drikus is going to survive round one and finish him. Driers has Brazilian jiu-jitsu game. I think he has the right mindset for this."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis, citing his resilience, ability to manage anxiety and energy, and his proven five-round experience. He notes that du Plessis is a strong scrambler who doesn't get submitted easily and can find second winds. Zane is not confident, acknowledging that Chimaev will likely take du Plessis down early and may finish him, but he has faith in du Plessis's ability to survive and take over if Chimaev fades.

du Plessis opened at +170, currently +202; Chimaev opened at -200, currently -237
"I'm still going to pick Dricus. I just think it's fun to pick Dricus. I want Dricus to win."
Submission (face crank) R1 3:34 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 3 of 4 75% 25 of 31 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 3 of 4 75% 25 of 31 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Robert Whittaker
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-245), Whittaker (+200)

Round 1
An all-international middleweight rumble with immediate championship implications serves as the co-main attraction of UFC 308, one that has as much attention as any non-title tilt lately. Former beltholder Whittaker (26-7, 17-5 UFC) hopes that this next win will propel him back to the top of the mountain, and he will have to deflate undefeated marauder Chimaev (13-0, 7-0 UFC) in a five-round affair. Anticipation is high in the building, among fans and the media, and with referee Jason Herzog as well. Everyone takes a deep breath, and the intense fighters do not touch gloves. Whittaker kicks low, and Chimaev tries to go high and misses. Whittaker attacks the lead leg again, and shoots low for a double. Whittaker uses the wall to keep himself upright, and he is dragged down despite grabbing the fence to keep himself afloat. Chimaev gets a hook in around the side, and he starts opening up with left hands while Whittaker is on his knees. Chimaev considers fishing a choke arm around the head, but he elects to impose his body weight down to keep Whittaker stuck. Whittaker keeps his hand attached to his face to defend from any noteworthy strikes, and Chimaev imposes his will and starts slamming knees to the thigh. Whittaker turns the other direction and gets wrenched down flat for a moment, but he posts off his arms to stop Chimaev from getting hold of him. Chimaev takes the back of the former champ, but Whittaker’s savvy scramble gets him out of immediate danger. Chimaev almost instantly hits a mat return, dragging “Bobby Knuckles” to a knee. A few short punches from the Russian get around the guard, and he slithers one arm around the jaw to try to set something up. Whittaker scrambles again, and he bucks off a choke and twists to the side to stop from giving up his back. Chimaev holds on and looks for an elbow on the side of the head, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke grip on the face in a hurry. “Borz” cranks on the face with all his might, and he appears to harm Whittaker with the submission as Whittaker taps frantically in an instant. Chimaev releases the grip when Herzog intervenes, and he hurls his mouthpiece out of the cage to celebrate. Whittaker motions that his jaw or face was injured from the sub, and Chimaev has now prevailed over one of the top talents in the middleweight division with little resistance. It likely cannot be denied who is next for Chimaev, who expresses gratitude for Whittaker accepting the fight with him. Chimaev calls for UFC chief Dana White to give him a shot at the belt, and after that crushing victory, who could say no?

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Robert Whittaker R1 3:34 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev as the second leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Chimaev's cardio issues and that Whittaker could survive early and take over late, but believes Chimaev's early pressure and wrestling will be too much. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense hasn't been tested against someone like Chimaev.

Second leg of villain parlay with a full unit bet; hopes it misses.
"hamzat is going to be the pick he is the second leg of that villain parlay."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He notes that Chimaev has power on the feet and is dangerous on the ground, and that Whittaker has shown vulnerability on the bottom against Dricus du Plessis. He acknowledges that if the fight reaches the third round, Whittaker becomes a live underdog, but he expects Chimaev to get takedowns and finish early. He calls it a great live bet spot for Whittaker if it goes past the first round and a half.

first round submission; live bet on Whittaker if fight reaches third round
"I'll go chamaya first round submission I think it's a great live bet spot though if this fight reaches the second and a half uh the round and a half mark the third round I would take a look at …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Robert Whittaker as a plus 220 underdog, citing Chimaev's cardio issues and history of pulling out due to illness. He notes that Chimaev has been extended in fights against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, and that Whittaker's takedown defense and five-round experience will be crucial. Cody believes that if Whittaker survives the first two rounds, he will take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Chimaev's wrestling may not be as effective against a true middleweight.

"I'm going with Robert Whitaker as well but I'm looking to live bet after the second"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker despite a gut feeling that Chimaev will win. He notes that Chimaev's resume against top competition (Burns, Usman) shows he fades and lacks control, while Whittaker has excellent takedown defense and striking. Connor worries about Whittaker's tendency to get caught in big moments but believes if Whittaker survives the early onslaught, he can win the later rounds.

Whittaker opened at +167, currently +197; Chimaev opened at -190, currently -220
"I am going to be a sucker and pick Whitaker."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Daniel Vreeland picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, predicting a submission finish via rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke. He highlights Chimaev's dominant grappling performance against Kamaru Usman, noting that Usman's takedown defense was flawless until that fight. Vreeland also references Dricus du Plessis' judo throw on Whittaker as a sign that Whittaker's takedown defense may be vulnerable. He dismisses concerns about Chimaev slowing down, arguing that even in later rounds he can still dominate.

submission (rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke)
"I'm calling either a rear naked choke or a Dar choke finish"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Lucrative James picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, likely inside the distance. He emphasizes Chimaev's wrestling dominance, noting that he has taken down everyone he's wanted to, including elite wrestler Kamaru Usman. He questions Whittaker's chin, pointing out that Whittaker has been hurt in many recent fights, and believes Chimaev can hurt him on the feet or take him down and finish with ground and pound or submission. He acknowledges Whittaker's takedown defense but thinks Chimaev's physicality and grappling are superior.

inside the distance
"I think jayv is going to get the W here probably inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker will deal with Chimaev's early onslaught and then run away with the fight in the later rounds. He can get a decision victory or find big shots to put Chimaev away in the fourth or fifth round. Whittaker reestablishes himself among the top middleweights.

Whittaker wins by decision or late finish (rounds 4-5)
"I like Whitaker here to pull off the upset"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Robert Whittaker, echoing Cody's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and durability. He highlights that Chimaev has only fought lower-level competition and struggled against Burns and Usman. Paul believes Whittaker's experience and ability to survive the early onslaught will lead to a victory in the later rounds. He also notes that Chimaev's frequent pullouts due to illness are a red flag.

"give me the guy with you know the former champion in this division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by TKO in the fourth round, arguing that Chimaev's hype exceeds his reality. He believes Whittaker's takedown defense and scrambling will survive Chimaev's early grappling, and that the five-round fight favors Whittaker's cardio. He notes Chimaev's lack of elite wins, his hand injury against Usman, and his tendency to fade. The Guru also mentions the humidity in Abu Dhabi and Chimaev's recent illness as factors. He predicts Chimaev will engage on the feet early, but Whittaker will take over as Chimaev gasses.

TKO fourth round
"I'm going with Robert Whittaker getting this one done TKO fourth round finishes Chimaev who's gassed out."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane also picks Whittaker, echoing Connor's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and lack of control against top opponents. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense is elite and that Chimaev's striking is not as polished. Zane adds that Chimaev's recent health issues and lack of passion are red flags, making him lean toward Whittaker.

Whittaker opened at +167, currently +197; Chimaev opened at -190, currently -220
"Yeah, me too. We're really setting ourselves up."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Robert Whittaker

Zane picked Whittaker going in, but acknowledged he had to eat crow after Chimaev's dominant first-round submission. He explained that Whittaker when he loses often melts down and makes a mistake, and that getting blown out isn't shocking for a fighter of Chimaev's quality. Zane noted that Chimaev is an all-time great first-round fighter, but still has questions about his performance in later rounds, as he becomes aimless and uncomfortable striking for long periods.

"I picked wittaker going in so i have to eat a little crow but even picking wittaker my feeling was look wittaker when he loses he absolutely melts down"
WIN vs Kamaru Usman
Decision (majority) (29–27, 29–27, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 0 36 of 66 54% 58 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 38 of 70 54% 107 of 143 4 of 12 33% 1 0 7:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 3 of 3 100% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 16 of 17 94% 61 of 66 2 of 7 28% 1 0 4:35
2 Khamzat Chimaev 0 11 of 18 61% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 9 of 20 45% 12 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:41
3 Khamzat Chimaev 0 22 of 45 48% 41 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 13 of 33 39% 34 of 54 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 36 of 66 54% 27 of 52 6 of 10 3 of 4 33 of 63 1 of 1 2 of 2
Kamaru Usman 38 of 70 54% 27 of 53 3 of 9 8 of 8 22 of 53 0 of 0 16 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 3 of 3 100% 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1
Kamaru Usman 16 of 17 94% 15 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 16
2 Khamzat Chimaev 11 of 18 61% 5 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 11 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 9 of 20 45% 3 of 10 2 of 6 4 of 4 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Khamzat Chimaev 22 of 45 48% 20 of 41 2 of 4 0 of 0 21 of 44 0 of 0 1 of 1
Kamaru Usman 13 of 33 39% 9 of 27 0 of 2 4 of 4 12 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-285), Usman (+230)

Round 1
Unexpectedly preserving this fight, former welterweight kingpin Usman (20-3, 15-2 UFC) will be stepping up to 185 pounds for the first time in his career in the highly anticipated co-headliner. With just 12 days to prepare, he will collide with Chimaev (12-0, 6-0 UFC), who has been out of the Octagon for over a year while at middleweight for the first time since 2020. Many questions may be answered about both men when the dust settles, and referee Jason Herzog will take the helm for the second-to-last bout of the day. Chimaev has a wild look in his eye, and even though he offers a clap of hands, Usman is having none of it. The two look for their ranges, and Chimaev races forward and looks to take the former champ down. Usman defends it by dropping to a knee, and he springs back up. Chimaev grabs him from behind and looks for a mat return, while imposing his body weight on Usman. Chimaev presses Usman down and gets both hooks in, and he starts hammering Chimaev with hammerfists. Herzog asks Usman to work, and Usman sits up but still has “Borz” on his back. Chimaev fishes for a choke and mixes in punches, and he grabs the cage a few times to maintain position. Usman stays on his hands and knees, not allowing himself to get flattened out but completely nullified from an offensive perspective. Usman looks to shimmy Chimaev off his back, although this does not work. Chimaev looks for a potential choke and busts Usman in the face with a few punches and an elbow. Usman stands up, and Chimaev completes the body triangle and starts wrapping up a rear-naked choke. Usman fights the hands to defend against the choke, and he slams Chimaev right on his head to stop the submission. Chimaev flattens Usman out momentarily, but Usman sits up and leans himself against the fencing. Chimaev wraps his arms around Usman’s head, but the choke is not there. Chimaev works with strikes from around the sides of the head, and he drags Usman to his seat when Usman looks to recover. “Borz” sits up to land a few strikes, and the dominant round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 2
The second round begins, and both men are tentative to exchange in the early going. No strikes land for the first 45 seconds, when Usman jabs the body and kicks the calf. Chimaev changes stances after the kick, and he flicks out a jab. Usman fakes for a takedown, and Chimaev partially bites but does not sell out to defend an attempt that does not come. Usman puts the ball of his foot on Chimaev’s midsection, and he blocks a high body kick that soars back his way. Usman scores another front kick, and he gets pushed back when Chimaev kicks at his knee. The crowd grows restless at the inactivity from the two middleweights, and Usman goes down a little harder for a faked takedown. Usman lands a straight right hand and pump-fakes for another takedown, and he blocks a head kick. Chimaev gets off a leg kick, and he is jabbed to the body. Usman misses on a big right hand, and he leans back as Chimaev swats at him. Another head kick is guarded from the former champ, who looks for a level change and stings Chimaev with a one-two and follows with a calf kick. Usman reaches out with a left hand, and Chimaev shoots in deep for a double that puts Usman on his back with relative ease. Usman defends by tying up the arms and neck, stopping Chimaev from advancing or doing anything. Chimaev pops his head out in the last seconds, lands one punch, and the horn tweets.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 3
The last round opens up, and Chimaev dives face-first for a takedown that Usman comfortably stops and scoots away. Usman picks and pokes with jabs and leg kicks, and he reaches out with a right that brushes off the beard. Usman leans down and grabs Chimaev’s leg, but he lets it go to keep Chimaev thinking about the wrestling. Chimaev lands a body kick and gets knocked back with two fists, and this leads to “Borz” racing forward with a takedown. Chimaev stands up, and Usman rifles out several jabs to the head and body. Chimaev gets stung in an exchange, and Usman tags him with more jabs and shoots for his own takedown. Chimaev appears fatigued, with his winging strikes labored, and Usman can reach him when he tries. Chimaev drops down for an ankle, and he successfully scoops Usman up and sets him down courtesy of a single. Chimaev moves into half guard, and he grinds the former champion down. Usman looks to buck and prevent Chimaev from advancing, but time is not on his side. Chimaev does little more than control, but he is heavy and keeps Usman flat until Usman furiously escapes. With 20 seconds to go, Usman is on his feet, and he misses with a one-two. Usman lands a few punches, ducks the counters, and the two let their hands go right to the bitter end. Scorecards may be all over the place, regarding the potential score of the first round and the value of striking against grappling in this round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman (29-28 Usman)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (29-28 Chimaev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (30-27 Chimaev)

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Kamaru Usman via Majority Decision (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev, citing the circumstances: short notice for Usman, moving up in weight, travel, and a three-round fight. He thinks Usman's cardio won't benefit him and Chimaev's wrestling will be too much. He is excited to see Chimaev's takedown defense tested but believes the factors favor Chimaev.

"I do think shemaya wins this fight I just think Usman at 36 up in weight as I mentioned the Trav there's just too many things working against him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first round TKO. He questions Kamaru Usman's motivation and decline, noting his age (36), injuries, and poor performance in the second Leon Edwards fight. Usman is taking the fight on short notice and moving up in weight. Brady believes Chimaev will take Usman down and finish him, as Usman has rarely been on his back and looked bad when he was.

first round TKO
"I like Jamay here I like him to style onar Usman and finish him in the first round by uh could be Tiko or sub pick your poison I'll say first round TKO for hamat chamay"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody picks Usman as a dog, arguing that Chimaev has not proven himself against top competition. He points out that Chimaev struggled with Gilbert Burns, who is a former lightweight, and that Usman is a former champion with elite wrestling and striking. Cody believes Usman's takedown defense will neutralize Chimaev's wrestling, and that Usman's jab and experience will carry him to victory. He also notes that Chimaev's lifestyle and lack of loyalty may affect his focus.

"I'm going to take Kamaru Usman first of all no reach Advantage going towards Khamzat Chimaev it's a 76 inch versus 75 in so slight one inch towards uh the Nigerian Nightmare Kamaru"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Daniel picks Khamzat Chimaev to defeat Kamaru Usman, arguing that Chimaev is on the rise while Usman is on the decline after his title reign. He believes Chimaev's athleticism, strength, and power are superior, and that the Burns fight humbled him and made him more mature. He notes Usman's cardio and durability but questions his knees and motivation, suggesting Usman is cashing out. Daniel expects Chimaev to show he is the next generation and win, possibly by finishing Usman early or outworking him.

Chimaev minus 300, Usman plus 260; mentions possibility of early finish or Usman taking over later
"I truly do believe jamayah will rise to the occasion and just show that you know he's got more left in the tank... I'm going to go with the undefeated Hamza Chimay to defeat one of the greatest welterweights of …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)

James did not make a pick for this fight. He discussed the fight post-fact, noting that Chimaev dominated round one with a 10-8 but gassed out, and that Usman won rounds two and three on some scorecards. He expressed that Chimaev is beatable if he doesn't finish early, but did not state a pre-fight pick.

"I didn't really see that much from his striking that looked like he had a broken hand... it was a good performance with Chimaev but yes if you take him out of round one he is beatable."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman is a former champion with high-level cardio, great wrestling, and improving striking. Despite short notice, he has been active and can stop Chimaev's takedowns, push the pace, and use forward pressure. Chimaev has question marks about cardio and activity. Expects Usman to win by decision, possibly with a third-round sprinkle.

Usman by decision, possible third round sprinkle
"I'm going to be the contrarian here I'm going to be the guy that says that Kamar Usman can get back to his winning ways even on short notice against the guy shimay"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Paul picks Chimaev, noting that Chimaev has been preparing for a big Paulo Costa and has had time to put on size for middleweight, while Usman is coming on short notice and hasn't added muscle. He believes Chimaev can use his wrestling and reach advantage, and questions Usman's durability after recent KO losses. Paul thinks Chimaev cruises here.

"I think Hamzat absolutely cruises here he can use the wrestling if he wants to but he's going to have reach advantages and there is the bit of a question of is Kamaru Usman's durability in question at this point …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The MMA Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev by first-round TKO. He argues that Usman is used to a physicality advantage and has bad knees, and that Chimaev will walk him down and land a big power shot. He notes that Colby Covington was rocking Usman and that Chimaev is more dangerous on the feet. He also points out that Usman has no power off his back foot and no slickness, while Chimaev has close reach and will push him back.

Chimaev wins in round 1 by TKO
"I'm going to go with hamach chv by KO in the first round"
WIN vs Kevin Holland
Submission (brabo choke) R1 2:13 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 0 0 of 1 0% 1 of 2 2 of 5 40% 2 0 1:56
Kevin Holland 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 0 of 1 0% 1 of 2 2 of 5 40% 2 0 1:56
Kevin Holland 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1
Kevin Holland 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1
Kevin Holland 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Kevin Holland

Round 1
The co-main event is now a five-round fight, courtesy of the enormous weight miss from Chimaev (11-0, 5-0 UFC). Clocking in 7.5 pounds above the welterweight limit, Chimaev lost his main event opportunity and may have taken a step back in the 170-pound hierarchy, but he will get to settle a score against Holland (23-7, 1 NC; 10-4, 1 NC UFC). The likelihood of this 180-pound catchweight fight reaching the final bell is quite low, as the odds for the fight going the distance are high in the plus-money territory at +240. Referee Herb Dean takes a deep breath and tries to keep the two from throwing down before the fight actually begins, and if you put money on there being no glove touch, throw your ticket away, because they actually do. In two seconds, Chimaev darts in for a takedown. Holland scrambles wildly, and “Trailblazer” does a practical cartwheel to escape it. As they keep moving, Chimaev briefly winds up on top, and Holland eventually settles to close his guard. Holland dodges to the side when punches drop down, and deafening chants for “USA” rain down. Holland throws his legs up for a possible submission, and he threatens enough to allow him to stand up. Chimaev hits a high-effort mat return, and he sets up a brabo choke on the way down. Holland turns to his knees, and he uses his legs to push off the knees of his opponent to push out of it. Chimaev releases his grip and settles it on the other side, and Holland steps over to the other side only to get rolled over. Holland, on his side, is getting followed by the Swede, and Chimaev is squeezing for all he's worth. “Borz” moves to get on top with the choke, and Holland has no choice but to tap out before he goes out. Chimaev sits on top of his defeated opponent, with Dean intervening, and he appears to scream at Holland, but it is one that is more celebratory than hostile. The bad blood that stemmed from the press conference scuffle appears to have been squashed, as Holland reluctantly hugs it out with his triumphant opponent. In his victorious post-fight interview, Chimaev claims that he does not care about missing weight, but commentator Joe Rogan presses him on the issue. Chimaev yells that he plans on “killing everybody” and that the doctor is to blame for stopping the cut. He claims he is willing to die in the cage, and the crowd drowns him out with boos. Chimaev is still undefeated at 12-0, with 11 finishes under his belt, and he did not absorb a single strike in yet another performance.

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Kevin Holland R1 2:13 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev, stating he will win whether he grapples or stands. He thinks Chimaev's wrestling will destroy Holland, and if he stands, he will touch Holland up and cause a TKO. He notes the odds are heavily in Chimaev's favor and expects a dominant performance.

"Khamzat Chimaev is absolutely obviously the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by second-round TKO, calling the fight unfair. He notes Chimaev can win anywhere: striking (he hits harder than Masvidal) or wrestling (Nate Diaz has poor takedown defense). He expects Chimaev to take Diaz down, hurt him with ground-and-pound, and possibly get a doctor stoppage. He dismisses Diaz's chances outside of a fluke.

second round TKO
"Shamaya for me she might have to win by I'll say second round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody is leaning towards the underdog Daniel Rodriguez, noting that Rodriguez has high volume and is hittable, but that Holland has a reach advantage and better cardio. He mentions that Holland's over 50.5 significant strikes is a reasonable prop, but he is not ready to pull the trigger on a bet yet, waiting for weigh-ins. He picks Rodriguez for the show.

Holland over 50.5 significant strikes
"i'm leaning towards the dog here in this spot just strictly on off the fact it's like we've seen d-rod go out there and land 170 significant strikes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Daniel Levi picks Li Jingliang to defeat Tony Ferguson. He notes Ferguson's decline, having lost four straight and been knocked out badly by Chandler. Levi believes Li's power and Ferguson's deteriorating chin and wrestling defense will lead to a knockout. He acknowledges his poor betting history on Li but still sees Li as the clear winner due to Ferguson's washed-up state.

Li by KO at +160 mentioned as a possible prop
"I still think li jing liang... is just going to be a bit too much and he probably does catch the chin of ferguson."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Jacob picks Chimaev but focuses on the round prop, predicting a first-round finish. He thinks Chimaev will try to prove a point by finishing the durable Nate Diaz early, using relentless ground and pound. He believes the ref will stop it due to carnage, and he is playing the under on rounds.

under 1.5 rounds
"I think he tries to absolutely prove a point by getting Nate Diaz out as quickly as he can... I think he gets it done easily in the first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The host is extremely confident in Khamzat Chimaev, expecting him to take Nate Diaz down immediately and smash him on the ground. He dismisses Diaz's durability and jiu-jitsu, citing Chimaev's wrestling and size. He took under 1.5 rounds at +120 and suggests Chimaev round one at +165.

under 1.5 rounds (+120), Khamzat Chimaev round one (+165 to +180)
"Hamzat is going to get Nate down without any issues and then he's going to smash him on the mat."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul picks Kevin Holland, citing his move to 170 as more natural and his improved wrestling. He believes Holland will be bigger and stronger, able to keep the fight standing, and that his cardio and output will carry him to a win in a competitive fight. He expects Holland to pull away down the stretch.

"i think kevin holland pulls it away down the stretch but i'm expecting a very competitive fight out of this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Khamzat Chimaev

The MMA Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first-round rear-naked choke. He describes Chimaev running across the cage, throwing a massive punch and front kick, pressuring Holland against the cage. After faking takedowns, Chimaev shoots, gets double underhooks, takes the back, and lands big punches. Holland scrambles but Chimaev gets both hooks in, cranks on an arm triangle, then chokes Holland out when he gives up his neck.

first round rear-naked choke
"she may have gets it done first round re-naked joke against Kevin Holland"
WIN vs Gilbert Burns
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 0 119 of 200 59% 141 of 223 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:06
Gilbert Burns 1 108 of 223 48% 124 of 239 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 18 of 42 42% 29 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 1 27 of 54 50% 39 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:44
2 Khamzat Chimaev 0 56 of 90 62% 63 of 98 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
Gilbert Burns 0 37 of 75 49% 41 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
3 Khamzat Chimaev 0 45 of 68 66% 49 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Gilbert Burns 0 44 of 94 46% 44 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 119 of 200 59% 89 of 166 22 of 24 8 of 10 99 of 178 9 of 10 11 of 12
Gilbert Burns 108 of 223 48% 84 of 191 14 of 22 10 of 10 87 of 191 11 of 13 10 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 18 of 42 42% 11 of 34 5 of 5 2 of 3 14 of 38 1 of 1 3 of 3
Gilbert Burns 27 of 54 50% 15 of 40 7 of 9 5 of 5 13 of 31 4 of 4 10 of 19
2 Khamzat Chimaev 56 of 90 62% 45 of 76 7 of 9 4 of 5 43 of 75 5 of 6 8 of 9
Gilbert Burns 37 of 75 49% 29 of 64 4 of 7 4 of 4 36 of 72 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Khamzat Chimaev 45 of 68 66% 33 of 56 10 of 10 2 of 2 42 of 65 3 of 3 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 44 of 94 46% 40 of 87 3 of 6 1 of 1 38 of 88 6 of 6 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Khamzat Chimaev

Round 1
The people’s main event is here now, as former title challenger Burns (20-4, 13-4 UFC) will try to blunt the momentum of wrecking machine Chimaev (10-0, 4-0 UFC). The finish-friendly welterweights with a substantial size disparity – Chimaev is taller, longer in the arms and appears much heavier – will receive supervision from veteran ref Mike Beltran, who will need to be ready to jump in at any moment. The intensity is palpable, and there is absolutely no interest in a glove touch. Chimaev pressures right out of the gate, kicking with front kicks with both legs. From there, he darts in for a takedown, and Burns stuffs it. Chimaev presses him into the wall, and Burns complains that at least one knee collided with his cup. Beltran does not intervene, and Chimaev shoots in for a low single. Chimaev lifts Burns off the ground and sets him down, and he ties up one of Burns’ legs before pulling Burns down flat to the mat. Burns keeps two-on-one wrist control to fight his way back to his feet, and he lets go with an elbow as Chimaev ducks down to wrap him up and bring him down. Burns rolls through to let Chimaev lord over him, and after a few Chimaev low kicks, Beltran lets Burns stand back up. Burns pushes off a knee and winds up with a right hand, but it comes up short of the mark. A heavy kick from Burns turns Chimaev around, and Chimaev crashes forward with heavy hands. Burns rolls with the punches, and he boots the body with a kick. Burns sits down on a huge right hand, and he knocks Chimaev back as Chimaev waves him on. Burns lands a low kick and catches Chimaev with a left hook, and Chimaev staggers back but gets his bearings. “Borz” storms forward with a trio of punches, and Burns bounces off the fence and lets loose with a right hand over the top. Burns swings with a few punches as Chimaev backs off, and then Chimaev comes back at him and eats a left hook on the chin. Burns blocks a few punches and counters with a heavy overhand right, and he scores a hard leg kick and a left hand that knocks Chimaev off his feet. Chimaev scrambles back to his feet, whether from being knocked down or slipping from throwing so hard, and he delivers a thudding low kick on the Brazilian’s leg. A straight right hand from the undefeated fighter blasts Burns and knocks him off his feet, and after a fierce scramble, Chimaev backs off and lets Burns get back to his feet. Chimaev intercepts Burns coming in, and the Brazilian is cut high on his forehead. Chimaev gets tagged with a huge right hand, and a left knocks him back right at the bell. What a round!

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 2
The first few seconds of the second round are tense until Chimaev punctuates the lull with a slapping leg kick. Burns ducks down with a takedown, and Chimaev nearly tags him with a right hand on the way in as he stuffs it. Burns gets back up and jumps forward with a swiping right hook, and Chimaev comes back with one that is blocked. A pair of jabs from Chimaev split the guard, and Burns answers him with a right hand that stings him. Burns rolls with a punch and kicks the body hard, and Chimaev winces and slams his shin into Burns calf. Burns leaves a left hand out too long and gets countered, and he lands two low kicks and a right hand over the top. Chimaev attacks back at him, and Burns grabs his leg for a single and cannot hit it. “Borz” stays on his feet as he hops back, and Burns resets. Chimaev gets nailed with a left hand, and he drops Chimaev. Burns lets him stand up so that he can blast him with more strikes, and Chimaev is hurt badly but still throwing back. Burns does not empty his gas tank, but he does bust Chimaev up. Burns gets rocked with a pair of punches that come back at him, and Burns kicks the body to further deplete his foe’s gas tank. Chimaev chops at the lead leg, and Burns nails him with a left hook. Chimaev just misses with a massive left hook, and he rocks Chimaev with a right. Chimaev stuffs a takedown that comes at him, and Burns falls to his back to set up a submission. Chimaev stands up, and Burns drills him in the body with a kick that sends Chimaev flying. They both climb back up to their feet, and he rings Chimaev’s bell with a right hand. Chimaev comes back at him, but Burns is getting the better of the exchanges. Burns catches his foe, and he slips out of the way and rolls with a few right hooks. “Durinho” lands a low kick on the inside, and he smacks the unbeaten fighter with a left hand. A body kick and a right hand connect cleanly for the Brazilian, and Chimaev attacks with a flurry. Burns cracks his foe with a right hand, and Chimaev falls to the ground again. Burns kicks at him when Chimaev is down, and there is no call on it, so they resume throwing. Burns gets taken down in a wild exchange, and when the round ends, Chimaev slaps Burns after the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
Burns begins the final frame with a body kick and a low kick, and Chimaev advances but does not throw. Burns jabs, and Chimaev jabs back harder. The two go strike-for-strike, and Burns backs away and counters effectively. The Chimaev jab is his best weapon, as he backs Burns up and cuts up the side of his eye. “Durinho” shoots for a takedown, and Chimaev is powerful enough to stay upright even on the second attempt that comes right after. Burns lands, Chimaev fires back, and Burns is hurt from an exchange. Burns shells up against the fence, and Chimaev leans in with a knee and heavy punches. They tie up against the wire, and Burns is sucking wind now. When they separate, it is Burns who lands harder with a huge right hand, and Chimaev staggers but keeps his balance. Burns hops forward with a few left hands while Chimaev is delivering sharp jabs on the chin. Chimaev backs his man up again, with Burns bleeding badly, and Burns swings wildly with power punches. Two punches get Burns’ attention, and he works the body with a front kick after Burns swings at him. A clean uppercut rocks Burns, but Burns is able to grit through it and wing a right hand that knocks Chimaev back. Burns throws a pair of hooks, and a right hand lands square on the temple. Chimaev loads up on a right hand of his own, and these two are still swinging with everything they have. Burns goes up high with a kick, and he wipes his eye from the blood flowing into it. Burns wings a right hook, and Chimaev closes in on him but backs off when there is nothing to the exchange. Chimaev marches forward like a Terminator, and Burns clubs him with a right hand that stuns him. With everything he has and more, Burns rocks Chimaev again with a trio of hooks. Chimaev stays up on his feet, and Burns looks to the clock to see when it’s time for one final barrage. Burns wings power punches, and he kicks as Chimaev jumps at him with a knee to knock both of them off their feet. They swing for the bleachers right to the final bell, ending an absolutely spectacular battle that lived up to the hype and then some. Regardless of who gets their hand raised, fight fans certainly got their money’s worth.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (29-28 Burns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (29-28 Chimaev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (29-28 Chimaev)

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev but acknowledges it's a big step up in competition. He praises Chimaev's wrestling, pace, and chain wrestling, but notes Burns' experience and power. He says Chimaev is safe for parlays but warns about the unknown factor of adversity.

Safe for parlays; suggests parlay with Volkanovski, Yan, and Chimaev.
"shimayev is the pick i'm not dismissing gilbert burns ... it's very safe to put shamayev in your parlays"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first-round knockout. He notes Chimaev has absorbed only one strike in four UFC fights and has tremendous power. Burns is chinny, having been dropped by Usman and knocked out by Dan Hooker. Brady sees few paths to victory for Burns and expects Chimaev to dominate on the feet and finish early.

first round knockout
"gimme chemie first round ko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Cody is sold on Chimaev, agreeing with Paul that he's a generational talent. He notes Chimaev's size advantage, underrated striking, and ability to take Burns down without fear of submissions. Cody points out Burns' losses to undersized fighters and his lack of significant wins. He thinks Chimaev's wrestling and pressure will be too much, and that Burns' best chance is an early KO or submission, but unlikely.

"i'm sold on him like you i think he's a very tough guy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Levi believes Chimaev is a special talent with elite wrestling, size, and work ethic. He thinks Chimaev will use a striking approach to avoid Burns's guard, and if he takes Burns down and passes to side control, he will be comfortable. He expects Burns to tire and flop to his back, leading to a finish. He acknowledges Burns is world-class but sees Chimaev as a future champion.

"i got to go with chimaev here man i think that the hype is real i think that this guy is special"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

I think Chimaev's wrestling and top control will be too much for Burns. Burns has shown he can be broken, and Chimaev is one of the best at breaking people. I see Chimaev getting the finish inside the distance. The fight not going to decision is a safe spot I'll parlay.

fight doesn't go to decision -225 to -270
"I'm going Chimaev... I think Chimaev gets it done inside the distance... the spot that I'm really liking here is the fight doesn't go to the decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lock picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Paul is extremely confident in Chimaev, calling him a generational talent and the best welterweight in the world. He has already bet Chimaev at plus money and plans to add more. Paul believes Chimaev's striking, footwork, and size advantage will overwhelm Burns, and that Burns' BJJ won't be a factor because Chimaev can control him on the ground. He thinks Chimaev rolls through Burns and fights for the title next.

Chimaev by KO, Chimaev future bets at +175, +135, +125
"this is the best welterweight in the world and i won't hear anything further"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The MMA Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev, dismissing Burns' jiu-jitsu and citing Chimaev's size, strength, and aggression. He expects a first-round TKO via back mount, with Burns focusing on not getting submitted and taking too many shots. He criticizes Burns' decision-making and chin, and notes Chimaev's 10-pound muscle advantage and reach advantage.

first round TKO prediction, back mount
"i'm going with hamza chimayev i've gotta go hamza chimaya... first round tko with a back mount"
WIN vs Li Jingliang
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:16 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Li Jingliang 0 25 of 25 100% 58 of 62 1 of 2 50% 3 0 3:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Li Jingliang 0 25 of 25 100% 58 of 62 1 of 2 50% 3 0 3:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 25 of 25 100% 25 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 24 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 25 of 25 100% 25 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 24 of 24
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by second-round submission. He is very confident, citing Chimaev's dominant performances and wrestling. Li has poor takedown defense (59%) and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. The only concerns are Chimaev's cardio if the fight extends and the layoff, but he expects an early finish. He agrees with the line.

Chimaev by submission (round 2)
"Give me comments that you may have and give me comments that you might have to to win i'll say i'll say submission i'll say second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Cody is all in on Chimaev, noting the layoff might have improved his cardio. He thinks Chimaev's pace and wrestling will be too much for Li, who has poor takedown defense (59%). He expects Chimaev to take him down at will and grind him out. He calls it a 'perfect stylistic matchup'.

"this is just such a stylistical perfect matchup"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Daniel picks Khamzat Chimaev, citing his wrestling and power. He acknowledges Li Jingliang's knockout power and history of upsets but believes Chimaev's wrestling will be a big factor. Daniel notes Li takes damage early and has been dropped in fights. He expects Chimaev to grind out a win, possibly by late ground-and-pound stoppage, but warns the line is too high to bet.

comments on line being too high to bet
"i'm gonna stay away from a betting thing i'm gonna just enjoy this one because the line's just too much"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Chimaev should dominate with his wrestling and pressure, but there are concerns about his recovery from COVID and potential cardio issues. He likely finishes early, so the under 1.5 rounds or inside distance are better bets than the moneyline. Li is durable and could capitalize if Chimaev fades.

Chimaev inside distance -165, under 1.5 rounds -110, live bet on Li if fight goes to round 2.
"If you're betting chemiev you might as well take the under one and a half because that's more than likely the way that he wins."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Paul is confident in Chimaev, calling it a 'smash full out'. He notes Li has been taken down by Neil Magny and others, and Chimaev's wrestling will dominate. He thinks the moneyline is safer than inside distance because Chimaev mixes KOs and submissions. He would be stunned if Chimaev loses.

Inside distance -175 (considered but not chosen)
"hamzat hamzat smash um i would be pretty stunned to see him lose this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The MMA Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by submission. He highlights Chimaev's superior grappling and size, noting that Li Jingliang has been outgrappled by lesser grapplers like Neil Magny, Jake Matthews, and Sean Brady. He thinks Chimaev's wrestling and pressure will make Li hesitant to throw. He predicts a second-round rear-naked choke after Chimaev outgrapples Li.

submission in the second round
"she may have outgrapples lee jingliang submits him in the second round with like punches to like a rear naked choke"
KO (punch) R1 0:17 · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Sep 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Gerald Meerschaert 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Gerald Meerschaert 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 3
Gerald Meerschaert 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 3
Gerald Meerschaert 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Round 1
At middleweight, recent fan-favorite Chimaev (8-0, 2-0 UFC) comes to blows with the submission-savvy Meerschaert (31-13, 6-5 UFC) in the former’s third UFC bout since mid-July. There is some bad blood between the two, but they still decide to touch gloves before referee Mark Smith. Chimaev reaches out with a front kick, and he backs Meerschaert up against the cage.
Chimaev walks “GM3” down and loads up on a bomb of right hand. That shot right down the middle detonates on the side of Meerschaert’s head, sending the veteran down and out.
As Smith is sprinting to stop the fight, “Borz” gets off a few more shots that are completely unnecessary. Wow. What a wild knockout.

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Gerald Meerschaert R1 0:17 via KO (Punch)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev, believing he is the better striker and can take Meerschaert down. He notes Meerschaert has poor takedown defense and has been knocked out and submitted multiple times. He predicts a first-round finish via ground and pound, though he acknowledges Meerschaert's experience and BJJ black belt as a concern.

Chimaev first-round finish
"i'm going to go to chemist to keep it rolling here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The host is very confident in Khamzat Chimaev's wrestling and aggression, expecting him to take Gerald Meerschaert down and finish with ground-and-pound. He notes Meerschaert's poor takedown defense and tendency to pull guard, while Chimaev has shown no weaknesses. He recommends betting the under 1.5 rounds at -120 as the safest play, predicting a first-round TKO.

Under 1.5 rounds -120; Khamzat Chimaev wins by TKO in round 1
"I still believe we'll see hamza go out there uh you know maybe strike a little bit then go for the takedown and then really start to put it on joel mirzard."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The host picks Khamzat Chimaev over Gerald Meerschaert, noting Chimaev's size and strength, and Meerschaert's recent first-round KO loss. He predicts a first or second-round TKO via ground and pound. However, he also says he will put some money on Meerschaert as a dangerous underdog.

first or second round TKO via ground and pound; also putting money on Meerschaert as underdog
"I'm gonna put some money on Gerald Meerscha because he's a dangerous dangerous guy... cam's at you may have first or second round tko to ground and pound."
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo acknowledges the common narrative that DDP wins if he survives early, but he questions Chimaev's cardio criticism, noting his tough weight cuts at 170. He believes the skill gap is wider than people think and that Chimaev can win multiple rounds. He picks Chimaev as the attacker rather than the survivor, despite rooting for DDP.

"I am going to pick Hamzot, though. I think the skill gap is wider than most people think it is."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He thinks Chimaev will get takedowns easily and put du Plessis in bad spots early. He worries about Chimaev's cardio if the fight goes to the third round, as du Plessis has shown good cardio and could take over late. He notes Chimaev has never seen a fourth or fifth round. He sees it as Chimaev early or du Plessis late, but leans Chimaev by early submission.

Chimaev by submission, round 1
"Give me Hamzad to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by first round submission in this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Connor picks Chimaev, arguing that du Plessis has never faced a wrestler of Chimaev's caliber and that his takedown defense is poor, as shown in the Derek Brunson fight where he was taken down in 10 seconds. He believes Chimaev is the best one-round fighter in MMA history and will likely finish du Plessis early. However, he acknowledges that if Chimaev doesn't get the finish, du Plessis's resilience and ability to weather storms could make it competitive.

Chimaev opened at -200, currently -237; du Plessis opened at +170, currently +202
"I think Khamzat Chimaev is going to be champion by the end of the week. And I'm pretty certain of that."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The host believes Chimaev's wrestling, top control, and submission game will be too much for du Plessis. He predicts Chimaev will secure a submission within two rounds, becoming the new middleweight champion. The host emphasizes Chimaev's grappling advantage as the key factor.

submission within two rounds
"I think he's going to struggle with the wrestling top control and submission game of Chamay, which should lead to Hamzat earning that gold and finding the submission within two rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to survive the early grappling onslaught from Khamzat Chimaev and take over as the fight progresses. He believes du Plessis's Brazilian jiu-jitsu background and experience against high-level grapplers will allow him to avoid being finished in round one. As Chimaev's cardio fades, du Plessis will turn the fight into a striking match and eventually finish him with a TKO in round three or four. The Guru compares this to Chimaev's fights with Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, where he struggled once the fight went past the first round.

TKO round 3 or 4; Dricus du Plessis wins by TKO up against the cage; less than 21.5 round one significant strikes for du Plessis (from PrizePicks segment)
"I think Drikus is going to survive round one and finish him. Driers has Brazilian jiu-jitsu game. I think he has the right mindset for this."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis, citing his resilience, ability to manage anxiety and energy, and his proven five-round experience. He notes that du Plessis is a strong scrambler who doesn't get submitted easily and can find second winds. Zane is not confident, acknowledging that Chimaev will likely take du Plessis down early and may finish him, but he has faith in du Plessis's ability to survive and take over if Chimaev fades.

du Plessis opened at +170, currently +202; Chimaev opened at -200, currently -237
"I'm still going to pick Dricus. I just think it's fun to pick Dricus. I want Dricus to win."
Comments (1)
BR
brian 10 months ago

Who knows!!