Talita Alencar vs Ariane Carnelossi

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Talita Alencar	0	60 of 195	30%	80 of 216	3 of 5	60%	0	0	2:27
Julia Polastri	0	78 of 111	70%	87 of 125	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:04

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Talita Alencar	0	12 of 49	24%	16 of 53	2 of 2	100%	0	1:00
Julia Polastri	0	21 of 26	80%	27 of 34	0 of 0	---	0	0:04
2	Talita Alencar	0	20 of 65	30%	36 of 82	1 of 3	33%	0	1:27
Julia Polastri	0	27 of 40	67%	30 of 46	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Talita Alencar	0	28 of 81	34%	28 of 81	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
Julia Polastri	0	30 of 45	66%	30 of 45	0 of 0	---	0	0:00

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Talita Alencar	60 of 195	30%	34 of 151	19 of 35	7 of 9	54 of 188	1 of 1	5 of 6
Julia Polastri	78 of 111	70%	48 of 78	12 of 14	18 of 19	72 of 103	6 of 8	0 of 0

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Talita Alencar	12 of 49	24%	3 of 35	4 of 8	5 of 6	9 of 45	0 of 0	3 of 4
Julia Polastri	21 of 26	80%	8 of 11	5 of 6	8 of 9	17 of 20	4 of 6	0 of 0
2	Talita Alencar	20 of 65	30%	14 of 56	6 of 9	0 of 0	17 of 62	1 of 1	2 of 2
Julia Polastri	27 of 40	67%	18 of 31	5 of 5	4 of 4	27 of 40	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Talita Alencar	28 of 81	34%	17 of 60	9 of 18	2 of 3	28 of 81	0 of 0	0 of 0
Julia Polastri	30 of 45	66%	22 of 36	2 of 3	6 of 6	28 of 43	2 of 2	0 of 0

Talita Alencar vs. Julia Polastri
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Polastri (-225); Alencar (+190)

Round 1
This nondescript Apex card at the end of April has all the makings of Spring Cleaning, with seven of the 26 combatants tonight sporting UFC records below .500 and several more hovering very close to or right at that midpoint. The latter is the case for this card opener at 115 pounds, as while Alencar (7-1-1, 3-1 UFC) has only lost after four walks to the Octagon, countrywoman Polastri (14-5, 2-2 UFC) sees an even record with the promotion thus far. The two strawweights will tangle as referee Jason Herzog watches on, all smiles with one another as they do not even offer a glove touch.
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Polastri moves straight to the center of the cage and plays it cool, letting the jittery Alencar fly past her with a spinning back fist. Polastri easily swats away a few punches that fly her direction, hoisting a substantial reach advantage. Alencar reaches her with a single jab, and her follow-ups including a kick or two largely fall short. Polastri smacks her back with a low kick. Polastri catches a kick and lets fly a loud response to the midsection. Alencar tries to pitch an off-angled head kick, and Polastri sways to dodge it and blocks one more orthodox kick coming at her. Alencar sits down on a body kick to seemingly target the raised arms of her foe, and she takes a step back when Polastri counters.
Polastri is able to time Alencar coming in and strike back, but she is not landing much on her own right. Alencar sinks in a thumping low kick and watches Polastri dance away from the action, frustrating her to the point of committing to a few power punches. Polastri is a ways away from the danger, picking her shots and probing with her jab. Polastri drives a kick to the body, safe from anything returning, and she nods at Alencar as Alencar bears down on her. “Problem Child” scores a solid right hand, ignoring the comeback to put her hands on the longer woman. Polastri escapes, and she pitches a body kick that is caught and allows Alencar to deposit her to the canvas. Polastri defends when she hits her back with effective upkicks, pushing her fellow Brazilian back away from her numerous times to not allow Alencar get on top. Polastri times an escape, and Alencar spears her to tackle her back down to the mat. Alencar looks to isolate Polastri’s left arm for a potential kimura, and she drops down a few punches as the round elapses.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Polastri

Round 2
Polastri once more moves directly to the center of the cage as the round opens, and she starts out more actively with a few jabs. Alencar thinks about kicking her back, but she is beaten to the punch—foot, actually—when Polastri’s kicks fly faster. Polastri is quick to evade and dodge most of the attacks, with her guard up high to protect against the rest. Polastri jabs Alencar up and forces her to shoot in on her hips, and she laughs it off and is nowhere to be found. Polastri pays her foe back with snappy jabs and calf kicks on the inside and outside of the front leg. Polastri sneaks a kick up high, and she is two feet away from a front kick that Alencar fires back. Alencar commits to another hefty kick, and she hits nothing but air. Polastri scores a solid calf kick, with Alencar reaching down in hopes of catching it. She abandons that effort and strings a few punches together.
Polastri promptly drives her back with a head kick, and she slips punches and drills Alencar with an overhand right. Polastri’s hands are low as she keeps them by her side, offering up shovel uppercuts from her lead hand to mark up Alencar’s nose. Alencar cannot find her range, while Polastri lands any time she tries. “Psycho” goes to the body, and Alencar catches it and trips her up to take the fight horizontal. This time, the upkicks from Polastri do not keep Alencar at bay, as Alencar pounces to assume top position with about a minute to go. Polastri turns to her side, and Alencar elbows her twice in the back of the head as Herzog tells her to not do that. Alencar smothers down in the half guard, with Polastri hanging on tight to ride out the rest of the round. Alencar frames off the face with an elbow, grinding one down on the face and the other on the ribs. Polastri pushes her off with seconds to spare, using her upkicks to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 3
The countrywomen decide to touch gloves as the last round opens. Polastri’s strategy to assume the middle of the Octagon is ironclad as Alencar allows her to do so every time. Alencar looks for a spinning back fist as she tries to navigate longer jabs, with the jab from the taller, longer woman causing her plenty of issues. Alencar swings wide, and Polastri is practically in another county by the time the punch extends. She does get off a sneaky side kick to the stomach, and Polastri stomps her foot to feint and fake but ends up taking two more punches on the jaw. Alencar considers a level change, but Polastri shoves her back. Polastri fires off a head kick, and as it grazes off the forehead, Alencar flashes a grin from ear to ear.
Polastri makes Alencar adjust her nose when plunking her with a solid one-two, and Alencar feels that it is not broken and fakes a takedown shot. Polastri circles away to avoid any concern, prodding with her jab and walking through a one-two to throw back a kick. Alencar offers up a front kick and then one to the chest, but it is her left hand that gets through. Polastri is able to lean back at times as kicks zoom past her face, moving just enough to not get struck while still remaining in range to counter. She counters. Alencar tries to catch a kick, and Polastri belts her in the face with her fists to force her to drop it. Alencar spins with a big kick, but nothing doing. Her body kick, however, does score. Polastri draws a bit more blood on the beak with a solid punch, and Alencar hears the 10-second clapper and starts brawling. Polastri engages in a brief brawl before time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri (29-28 Polastri)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (29-28 Alencar)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (29-28 Alencar)

The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Julia Polastri via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Talita Alencar

Angelo picks Talita Alencar as the underdog, reasoning that the gap on the ground is very wide and if Alencar can get the fight to the ground, she wins. He acknowledges that Alencar's takedowns are not very good, but notes that Julia Polastri's takedown defense is also poor. He compares the two weaknesses to 'expired milk versus a baby diaper left out in the sun' and chooses the expired milk (Alencar). He mentions Alencar is live for a submission but could get beaten badly if she can't get it to the ground.

"I'm going with the dog. I'm gonna pick the dog. She's obviously live for a sub but if she doesn't get it to the ground she's gonna get the [__] beat out of her."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

Big Brady picks Julia Polastri over Talita Alencar. He questions Alencar's competition, noting her wins came against fighters with poor takedown defense. He believes Polastri will be tougher to take down and has better cardio and clinch work. He predicts Polastri will break Alencar and finish her in the second or third round.

Polastri wins by third round knockout

"I like Polastri here and I think Polastri's going to break Alencar as the fight goes on. She's going to, you know, mix in those knees. She's going to pressure. And I think she's going to finish Alencar in the …"

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Julia Polastri

Connor picks Polastri as well, citing her ability to rally and finish fights. He notes that Alencar has a solid takedown game but gasses out, while Polastri gets stronger as the fight goes on. Connor also mentions that Polastri is only 28 and should be hitting her prime, making her a good pick.

Polastri opened at -200, now -240; Alencar opened at +170, now +205. Connor thinks the line is a bit wide but understandable.

"i think i'm gonna take pilasterie yeah me too i think it could be a real 50 50 fight alan yark goes out and gets all the takedowns early swamps her in the first round gets an early takedown in …"

MMA Vivisection

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)

Talita Alencar

The host acknowledges this is a tricky fight due to extreme stylistic advantages: Polastri is a striker with terrible takedown defense and ground game, while Alencar is a grappler with no striking and bad cardio. He says the better bet is Alencar because of the risk-to-reward ratio, but he wouldn't personally bet either pre-fight. He prefers live betting and mentions betting Alencar +3.5 rounds.

Alencar +3.5 rounds; fight likely goes to decision but odds too poor to bet; prefers live betting

"The better bet of the two is Alencar. It's clearly the dog or pass, but that's simply just letting the odds do the work for you."

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

James picks Polastri, expecting her to survive early takedowns and come back with a third-round finish as Alencar gasses. He notes Polastri's history of late finishes and Alencar's cardio issues.

KO in round three

"I'm going to pick Pastry cuz I think she's going to get a third round finish."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Julia Polastri

Polastri is a Muay Thai specialist with good takedown defense and volume striking. She should be able to stick and move, avoid Alencar's grappling, and land significant damage. Alencar's wild striking and shaky gas tank will be exposed as Polastri picks her apart and eventually gets a TKO in the second or third round.

Polastri by round 3 TKO

"give me plaster and plaster by round three TKO"

MMA Lock of the Night

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Julia Polastri

Zane picks Polastri because she is a natural fighter who comes on strong late in fights, while Alencar tends to fade if she can't get a finish. He notes that Polastri has good takedown defense once she gets going and is a vicious slugger. Zane also points out that Alencar's striking is power-based and she struggles when shut down early.

Polastri opened at -200, now -240; Alencar opened at +170, now +205. Zane is surprised the line is so wide.

"i think i'm gonna take pilasterie yeah me too i think it could be a real 50 50 fight alan yark goes out and gets all the takedowns early swamps her in the first round gets an early takedown in …"

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Ariane Carnelossi

Submission R3 4:36 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Talita Alencar	0	60 of 100	60%	79 of 122	5 of 8	62%	2	0	6:10
Ariane Carnelossi	0	25 of 76	32%	50 of 106	0 of 1	0%	0	0	2:19

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Talita Alencar	18 of 30	60%	26 of 38	2 of 4	50%	0	1:51
1	Ariane Carnelossi	1 of 17	5%	24 of 43	0 of 0	---	0	1:39
2	Talita Alencar	20 of 39	51%	23 of 45	2 of 3	66%	1	1:30
2	Ariane Carnelossi	10 of 35	28%	11 of 37	0 of 1	0%	0	0:40
3	Talita Alencar	22 of 31	70%	30 of 39	1 of 1	100%	1	2:49
3	Ariane Carnelossi	14 of 24	58%	15 of 26	0 of 0	---	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Talita Alencar	60 of 100	60%	34 of 67	19 of 23	7 of 10	31 of 65	14 of 15	15 of 20
Ariane Carnelossi	25 of 76	32%	10 of 57	3 of 5	12 of 14	25 of 71	0 of 5	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Talita Alencar	18 of 30	60%	9 of 18	8 of 10	1 of 2	5 of 12	9 of 9	4 of 9
1	Ariane Carnelossi	1 of 17	5%	1 of 17	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 14	0 of 3	0 of 0
2	Talita Alencar	20 of 39	51%	10 of 25	7 of 9	3 of 5	14 of 32	5 of 6	1 of 1
2	Ariane Carnelossi	10 of 35	28%	2 of 24	2 of 4	6 of 7	10 of 33	0 of 2	0 of 0
3	Talita Alencar	22 of 31	70%	15 of 24	4 of 4	3 of 3	12 of 21	0 of 0	10 of 10
3	Ariane Carnelossi	14 of 24	58%	7 of 16	1 of 1	6 of 7	14 of 24	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Talita Alencar vs. Ariane Carnelossi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alencar (-250); Carnelossi (+210)

Round 1
After a rousing series of fight cards around the world, the UFC recedes back to the Apex for half of its remaining shows this year. The first of two weekends in a row, the promotion’s headquarters—reportedly with new, revamped internal facilities even including concession stands (that are not open yet)—will play host to UFC Fight Night 263, also known as UFC Vegas 110. For the sixth time in the last eight events, women will kick off the violent festivities. Strawweights take center stage, where a loss will almost certainly save their place on the roster while a defeat does not guarantee another match in the Octagon. Alencar (6-1-1, 2-1 UFC) has reached the final bout of her initial four-fight deal, so this one will matter more than the others. She battles the returning Carnelossi (15-3, 3-2 UFC), who has only competed once in the last three years. The two will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith, who clocks them in as they bump fists.
Carnelossi comes out of her corner loaded for bear, and she bashes Alencar in the face right off the bat. Alencar bounces back, rebounds off the fencing and pushes out with kicks. She rushes forward behind a right hand to set up a clinch with a body lock takedown attempt, and Carnelossi muscles her around to break it up. Carnelossi scores a short strike on the break, and then walks her retreating countrywoman down. “Sorriso” has her guard up in time to block the single kicks soaring her direction, although a one-two down the pipe gets her attention. Carnelossi goes for her own level change, ultimately hitting a 115-pound wall plus the cage behind her in Alencar. Carnelossi grinds on Alencar when a single-leg effort fails, and she smacks Alencar with short but frustrating overhand rights.
Carnelossi staves off a counter trip attempt, and the two jockey for position twirled around in the tie-up. Alencar puts Carnelossi’s back to the fencing, and she knees her in the stomach when bending over for something. Carnelossi turns her about once more and gives her a few knees to think about on the other side of the equation. This continues, and Alencar is warned for grabbing the fence to keep Carnelossi stuck and has her hand slapped away a few times. Alencar ducks down in pursuit of a single-leg takedown, and she gets it for a second or two before Carnelossi pops back to her feet without issue. Carnelossi punches her way out of the clinch and meanders forwards Alencar, swinging her way until they end up clinching once more. Alencar trips Carnelossi to the floor, and Carnelossi uses her upkicks when hitting the mat to keep Alencar from climbing on top of her. Alencar drops to her knees, and Smith warns Carnelossi for what would be illegal upkicks. The horn sounds with Alencar striking from above.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 2
Like the previous round, Carnelossi plods directly forward to engage, no glove touch in the works. Carnelossi walks through a body kick to put her hands on her opponent, and a right hand opens a tiny cut on the bridge of Alencar’s nose. Alencar swings, and Carnelossi counters her more effectively. Alencar’s front kick is an effective weapon at keeping her foe at bay, but only for a brief time as Carnelossi tends to charge when struck with that blow. She does just that when drilled with a kick down the middle, racing after Alencar and slugging her in the face. Carnelossi ducks down and nearly takes a knee on the chin, and they proceed to bang it out up close and personally. Alencar spins with a back kick when in close proximity, and Carnelossi’s pressure is getting to her as she cannot get space to recover. Carnelossi connects with a hefty low kick that makes Alencar recoil it awkwardly, and she keeps kicking that spot.
Alencar winds up with a huge right hand while taking shots, and she grabs the back of Carnelossi’s head and drives a knee square into it. Alencar hurls Carnelossi to the floor, and she prevents Carnelossi from standing by snapping down on the back of her neck. Carnelossi still manages to force her way upright, and she remains comfortable in the clinch getting her head right after getting stunned. Carnelossi tries to drag the fight to the floor, and Alencar turns the tables and puts her down on the mat. When Carnelossi looks to get up, Alencar hangs on to a kimura that she uses to attempt to sweep. When not looking for that, she elbows Carnelossi in the side of the dome again and again. Carnelossi drops all the way down to pursue a desperate takedown, and Alencar accepts it as she has her legs laced around Carnelossi’s and looks to take her back. Alencar gets the hooks in and wraps up a rear-naked choke, fastening the short choke under the chin and pulling back. Carnelossi rolls to her side and then stomach, surviving the deep submission and likely being saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 3
Carnelossi appears good to go to start the round despite nearly going out in the end of the previous frame, and she asserts pressure. Carnelossi kicks low to open up a right hand, and she ignores a body kick to hunt “Problem Child” down. Alencar sticks out a right hand, and Carnelossi swarms her with a combination counter. Alencar snaps out a left, but her blows are largely one-and-done while Carnelossi’s volume is giving her fits. Alencar puts three punches together to decent effect, and she fakes a level change after it to get Carnelossi to bite. They trade low kicks, and Carnelossi checks the latter and gives her another one back. As Carnelossi fearlessly walks Alencar down kicking her in the midsection, Alencar snatches the limb out of the air and trips Carnelossi to the floor. Carnelossi prevents Alencar from getting into her guard by pitching upkicks aplenty, and she even threatens briefly with an omoplata shoulder lock setup that ultimately puts her in a worse position than when she started.
Alencar lowers herself down into the side control position, where she slips right to north-south position with Carnelossi scrambling all the while. Carnelossi counters with her own single-leg shot, and Alencar steps over her and sets up an inverted triangle choke. Alencar hammers the side with elbows until Carnelossi explodes to get to her knees and push through the takedown try. Alencar shuts her down and elbows her in the side of the head until pulling guard and getting Carnelossi’s back.
With a minute left in the round, Alencar gets the body triangle secure, and she starts fishing for chokes. Alencar slides her right forearm beneath the chin, and she goes palm-to-palm but it is not crushingly tight. Alencar adjusts her grip, torqueing the choke as hard as she can, and Carnelossi lifts her arm up and dramatically taps out.
This marks the first time that “Sorriso” has been submitted since her pro debut in 2014 against Amanda Ribas. The victorious Alencar puts behind her a five-fight decision or draw stretch, and all of her stoppages remain by RNC.

The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Ariane Carnelossi R3 4:36 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Talita Alencar

Angelo picks Talita Alencar, highlighting her grappling prowess and recent win over Vanessa Demopoulos. He notes Ariane Carnelossi is physically strong but lacks takedown defense and skills. He expects Alencar to get takedowns and control the fight, though he is unsure about spending $9,000 on her in DFS.

"Ariane Carnelossi is going to lose this fight. I don't know if I'm going to spend nine grand on Talita Alencar though."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Talita Alencar

Big Brady picks Talita Alencar due to Ariane Carnelossi's terrible takedown defense (14%). He notes Alencar is not the best wrestler but attempts many takedowns and is good on top with solid ground and pound. He also mentions Alencar is a six-time BJJ world champion. The only concern is Alencar's cardio, but he believes Carnelossi will struggle. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission

"I like Allen Carr. Give me Allen Carr to get takedowns and potentially get a submission. I'll say second round submission for Toita Allen Carr."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Talita Alencar

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Carnelossi is very strong but stiff and awkward everywhere. He thinks Alencar's jiu-jitsu will allow her to drag Carnelossi down and control her on the ground, even if her wrestling isn't elite.

Alencar opened at -500, now -230; Carnelossi opened at +385, now +195.

"I agree that carnalossi is just very strong but also very stiff and awkward everywhere it seems."

MMA Vivisection

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Talita Alencar

Lucrative James picks Talita Alencar, citing her superior wrestling and grappling against Ariane Carnelossi, who has poor takedown defense (14%). He believes Alencar will take Carnelossi down at will and control the fight on the ground. He notes Carnelossi's power and toughness but thinks the skill gap is too large, predicting a decision win for Alencar.

Talita Alencar wins by decision

"I got Toita Alan Carr in this one."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

Carnelossi's strength and BJJ black belt should help her stay safe against Alencar, and she will eventually butcher Alencar on the feet to win by TKO. The host is surprised the odds are as wide as they are, implying value on Carnelossi.

surprised by the odds

"Kind of surprised the odds are as wide as they are, but I believe Carnalosi's strength and BJJ Black belt can help her stay safe here against Alan Carr and then eventually butcher Alan Carr on the feet to win …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi despite Talita Alencar being the favorite. He worries that Alencar's grappling may not be enough to get takedowns consistently, and Carnelossi's physicality and strength could neutralize Alencar's shots. He believes Carnelossi will win on damage if the fight stays standing, predicting an upset decision.

"I'm going to go with Ariane Carnelossi. The shoulders are a dead giveaway and when I'm not sure, I'm going to go with this."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Talita Alencar

Zane picks Alencar because she is a solid jiu-jitsu fighter with good top control, while Carnelossi is stiff, head-hunts, and is easy to take down. He notes that Alencar's wrestling is clumsy but she finds ways to get to good positions. Carnelossi tends to stay on her back when put there.

Alencar opened at -500, now -230; Carnelossi opened at +385, now +195.

"I'm just gonna take alan car. Carnalossi is strong but stands really stiff, head hunts like crazy, so she's really easy to take off of her feet."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Vanessa Demopoulos

Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Vanessa Demopoulos	0	10 of 34	29%	34 of 63	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:02
Talita Alencar	0	45 of 75	60%	107 of 150	4 of 5	80%	1	0	12:38

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Vanessa Demopoulos	4 of 7	57%	7 of 10	0 of 0	---	0	0:02
1	Talita Alencar	9 of 17	52%	19 of 31	1 of 1	100%	1	4:25
2	Vanessa Demopoulos	6 of 20	30%	19 of 33	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Talita Alencar	11 of 24	45%	40 of 55	1 of 1	100%	0	3:43
3	Vanessa Demopoulos	0 of 7	0%	8 of 20	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Talita Alencar	25 of 34	73%	48 of 64	2 of 3	66%	0	4:30

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Vanessa Demopoulos	10 of 34	29%	9 of 31	1 of 3	0 of 0	9 of 33	0 of 0	1 of 1
Talita Alencar	45 of 75	60%	39 of 67	4 of 4	2 of 4	13 of 39	1 of 1	31 of 35

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Vanessa Demopoulos	4 of 7	57%	4 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0	4 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Talita Alencar	9 of 17	52%	7 of 15	1 of 1	1 of 1	3 of 11	1 of 1	5 of 5
2	Vanessa Demopoulos	6 of 20	30%	5 of 17	1 of 3	0 of 0	5 of 19	0 of 0	1 of 1
2	Talita Alencar	11 of 24	45%	7 of 18	3 of 3	1 of 3	8 of 21	0 of 0	3 of 3
3	Vanessa Demopoulos	0 of 7	0%	0 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Talita Alencar	25 of 34	73%	25 of 34	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 7	0 of 0	23 of 27

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Talita Alencar vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alencar (-112), Demopoulos (-108)

Round 1
This 11-week marathon of consecutive UFC cards soldiers on with the penultimate show on the stretch. We scoot back to the confines of the UFC Apex for better EBITDA margins, in a building that was supposed to starting renovations or construction soon. For now, it plays host to 12 fights ranging from 115 pounds to 266, but few matches on the lineup have any rankings relevance while there is likely to be ample pink slip fodder. The ladies in this curtain jerker might be safe if they lose this one, but with the promotion preparing for the summer season of Contender Series, few on the roster are safe. The two that kick this event off might be similar in age but they are a chasm apart in terms of experience. Demopoulos (11-6, 5-3 UFC) celebrates almost three times the appearances of Alencar (5-1-1, 1-1 UFC) despite the Brazilian just two years younger. Referee Chris Tognoni takes charge for the opening bout, and it kicks off without a glove touch. Demopoulos says hello with two punches across the forward bow, and she snaps out another such combo and reaches Alencar with one more left hand before the Brazilian can get to her. Alencar ties her foe up against the cage, and she drops down and wraps up a head lock to force “Lil Monster” to her knees. Alencar uses her left arm to pressure behind Demopoulos’s neck, and she is warned for grabbing the fence when imposing her weight on her opponent. Demopoulos uses her toes to try to pull her out of danger, which too is a foul. Alencar keeps to this position, content to control rather than actually committing to the unorthodox submission. Alencar releases the grip around the neck and pushes Demopoulos’ legs out of the way to establish a more traditional top position. Demopoulos uses her legs to threaten and otherwise keep Alencar honest, allowing Alencar to punch her in the face repeatedly. Demopoulos hunts for a sweep and only bails on it when absorbing a particularly effective elbow. Alencar keeps her full weight down, jumping from one side to the other and winding up in a sudden armbar. The Brazilian punches out of it from above, and she grabs the foot of Demopoulos for a possible foot or ankle lock. Alencar sits on Demopoulos’ face as she hangs on, staying heavy until the round wraps.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 2
Demopoulos starts the round as aggressive as the first, firing off two one-two salvos and a right hand before she is met by her opponent. Alencar gets up close and personal, changing levels for a possible takedown, but abandons it and lets her hands go to smack Demopoulos upside the head. Demopoulos comes up short on a winging overhand right, and she wades back to let Alencar do something similar. Alencar tosses out naked leg kicks to keep Demopoulos away, and she sits down on a clean right hand but does not budge Demopoulos one inch. The moment “Lil Monster” drives through a one-two, Alencar counters her momentum to hit a double-leg takedown and plop her on her back. Alencar lands in half guard, using her shoulder pressure to flatten out Demopoulos as soon as they get horizontal. Alencar is quick to engage her smothering best, stifling Demopoulos and getting warned for striking the spine when she does attack again. “Problem Child” gives Demopoulos another problem by stepping to the other side so she can set up an arm-triangle choke. Demopoulos bucks and kicks enough to gain the space she needs to not get choked out, and this only results in her getting struck with more ground-and-pound. Alencar finds a brief opening and hammers down four right hands, and she sits back on Demopoulos’ face in a relatively unusual position. Demopoulos sells out for a leglock in hopes of reversing the position, and Alencar gets out of it by repeatedly grabbing the fence. Tognoni slaps her hand several times, and Alencar still is able to yank on it to get her leg out of the sub. Rules mean nothing with no consequences, and multiple fence grabs keeping her out of a submission go generally uncalled other than a “knock it off” from Tognoni. Alencar rides out the position on top until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 3
Demopoulos marches out of her corner a woman possessed, and she lashes out with multiple one-twos down the pipe. Alencar rushes towards her as well, perhaps for a takedown, and she clashes heads before changing levels. Tognoni checks to make sure neither woman sustained damage, and on the restart, Alencar tackles Demopoulos to the mat and the collective air out of the Apex as well. Alencar hangs out in guard, unafraid of anything the Factory X fighter will do to her, and she pops Demopoulos with some short, scoring strikes. Demopoulos hunts for a triangle choke, armbar or even possibly a desperate leglock, and the Brazilian laughs them all off and steps the proper direction to avoid them completely while remaining in top. Alencar shifts to half guard from the opposite side as she wants to set up an armbar, and she drops down ground-and-pound when not isolating the neck. When the sub is not there, Alencar sits up into three-quarter mount, and she attacks with strikes from above. With nothing left to lose, Demopoulos explodes to sit up and even stand. Unfortunately for her, the “Problem Child” is a problem for her, as she executes a near-immediate mat return to sling Demopoulos to her back. Alencar lords over her, dropping down standing-to-ground punches while avoiding upkicks. Alencar picks up the pace with more punches than before, and she climbs into half guard and elbows until the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (30-27 Alencar)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Alencar (30-26 Alencar)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (30-27 Alencar)

The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Vanessa Demopoulos via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Vanessa Demopoulos

Angelo argues that Vanessa is the more complete fighter with solid striking, footwork, and decent grappling, while Talita Alencar is an accomplished grappler but ineffective on the feet, small, and powerless. He notes that Talita's takedowns are not great and she relies on strength, and that even if she gets it to the ground, she hasn't shown the killer instinct expected. Angelo believes Vanessa can win via striking and takedown defense, and he dismisses any bias from his past interaction with Vanessa.

"This should be a Vanessa pick all day long she's the more complete fighter of the two to has proven to be pretty useless on the feet she's small she's ineffective she is powerless and even if she gets it …"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Vanessa Demopoulos

Big Brady picks Vanessa Demopoulos despite acknowledging she has questionable wins and poor takedown defense. He believes Talita Alencar's cardio is a major issue, as she slowed down significantly in her Contender Series fight. He expects Demopoulos to survive early grappling and take over in later rounds, finishing a gassed Alencar via ground and pound.

third round ground and pound TKO

"I'm going Vanessa deop here I'm going to take her to win by by third round ground and pound TKO"

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Talita Alencar

Alencar's BJJ wizardry will come into play, allowing her to land takedowns and eventually find a submission. The fight could be close but Alencar's grappling advantage is expected to secure the win.

submission

"I think the BJJ Wizardry of Alan car will come into play allowing her to land takedowns and eventually find the submission to get demopoulos out of there."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Vanessa Demopoulos

The Guru picks Vanessa Demopoulos based on her physicality, scrappiness, and experience. He dismisses Talita Alencar as not UFC-caliber, noting her claim to fame was against someone who got fraud-checked. He admits there's no technical aspect to analyze, just that Demopoulos is larger and more physical.

"Vanessa Demopulus is probably going to win 2928. She's more physical. She's scrappy. She's got experience. She's larger."

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Stephanie Luciano

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Stephanie Luciano	1	72 of 175	41%	87 of 190	0 of 0	---	0	0	1:10
Talita Alencar	0	41 of 151	27%	45 of 159	1 of 10	10%	0	0	0:38

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Stephanie Luciano	0	26 of 67	38%	27 of 68	0 of 0	---	0:04
1	Talita Alencar	0	17 of 55	30%	17 of 55	0 of 0	---	0:04
2	Stephanie Luciano	0	24 of 54	44%	31 of 61	0 of 0	---	0:24
2	Talita Alencar	0	9 of 41	21%	9 of 42	1 of 8	12%	0:21
3	Stephanie Luciano	1	22 of 54	40%	29 of 61	0 of 0	---	0:42
3	Talita Alencar	0	15 of 55	27%	19 of 62	0 of 2	0%	0:13

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Stephanie Luciano	72 of 175	41%	49 of 139	14 of 22	9 of 14	66 of 167	5 of 7	1 of 1
Talita Alencar	41 of 151	27%	20 of 100	16 of 44	5 of 7	36 of 141	5 of 9	0 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Stephanie Luciano	26 of 67	38%	18 of 52	5 of 10	3 of 5	26 of 67	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Talita Alencar	17 of 55	30%	12 of 47	3 of 6	2 of 2	17 of 55	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Stephanie Luciano	24 of 54	44%	15 of 42	5 of 7	4 of 5	21 of 51	3 of 3	0 of 0
2	Talita Alencar	9 of 41	21%	4 of 28	4 of 11	1 of 2	8 of 37	1 of 3	0 of 1
3	Stephanie Luciano	22 of 54	40%	16 of 45	4 of 5	2 of 4	19 of 49	2 of 4	1 of 1
3	Talita Alencar	15 of 55	27%	4 of 25	9 of 27	2 of 3	11 of 49	4 of 6	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Talita Alencar vs. Stephanie Luciano
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Luciano (-185), Alencar (+154)

Round 1
A women’s strawweight rematch kicks off the streamlined undercard, as Alencar (5-0-1, 1-0 UFC) takes on Luciano (5-1-1, 0-0 UFC) for the second time in less than a year. The 115-pound hopefuls fought to a draw on Dana White’s Contender Series in September. Luciano was awarded a UFC contract for her efforts and Alencar received a traditional call-up for her Octagon debut, as she eked out a split decision over Rayanne dos Santos at UFC Fight Night 233 on Dec. 9. Jerin Valel draws the assignment as the referee. A glove touch gets us underway. Luciano takes the center and eats a head kick right out of the gate. Fortunately for her, there was not much oomph behind it. Alencar fires a leg kick, circles out into open space and steers clear of her opponent’s punches. Luciano tries and fails to corner Alencar, who continues to circle effectively. Luciano now using her seven-inch reach advantage to get her jab and one-twos in gear. She probes to the body, then misfires on an overhand right. Luciano sneaks in a left hook, then gets back to the jab. Midway through the first round, and neither woman has established too much of an advantage. Alencar mixes in a body-head combination, then fakes a takedown. Luciano jabs and manages to dodge the return fire. Ninety seconds to go. Luciano jabs, feints a kick and scores with a pawing right hook. Alencar swings wildly with both hands and misses. They clinch, and Luciano shoots a few knees to the body, then punches on the break. A flying knee from Luciano lands to the body. Jumping switch kick from Luciano gets blocked, but a knee that follows bloodies Alencar’s nose.
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Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Luciano

Round 2
Luciano immediately gets back to the jab. Alencar ducks in for a takedown but fails to corral her counterpart, and Luciano escapes to a standing position. Luciano separates and unleashes more jabs. A spinning backfist from Alencar gets blocked. Both women tend to telegraph their strikes. Luciano sprawls on attempted takedown, takes top position briefly and disengages. More jabs score. Not going well for Alencar thus far. Leg kick from Luciano, then a chopping right hand followed by a left hook. Alencar eats a head kick without issue. Luciano blocks one in return, then connects again upstairs. Alencar now reaching on her punches, as she continues to struggle to find the mark. A minute to go, and Luciano is in charge. Side kick from Luciano grazes Alencar’s midsection. She shoots in response, only to get shut down along the fence. Luciano separates and hammers home a body kick. Alencar fires back but generally with single shots. Luciano whiffs on a spinning backfist and denies a takedown as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Luciano

Round 3
Luciano smiles at her adversary at the start of Round 3, and she has every reason to do so. They trade leg kicks. Alencar looks to pressure, but Luciano calmly circles away. Right cross-left hook combination from Luciano. She counters an Alencar leg kick with multiple punches. To no one’s surprise, Alencar needs this fight on the mat to have a real chance. Luciano denies a takedown, blocks a head kick and connects with a clean one-two. She backs Alencar to the fence with punches, engages her in the clinch and uses her height and leverage to her advantage. They separate midway through the round. Luciano drops her fellow Brazilian with a jumping knee. Alencar resorts to the butt scoot while she clears her head. Back on her feet now. Luciano looks to jab, throws a right hand over the top and engages Alencar in the clinch with double underhooks. They separate. Time running out on Alencar. Luciano leaving her feet to throw kicks and knees more and more as her comfort level increases. She lands a close-range elbow and a left hook. Alencar tries to answer. No luck. Luciano coasts to the finish line.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Luciano (30-27 Luciano)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Luciano (30-27 Luciano)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Luciano (30-27 Luciano)

The Official Result
Stephanie Luciano def. Talita Alencar—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Stephanie Luciano

Angelo picks Luciano because she showed toughness and cardio in the first fight, biting down on her mouthpiece and coming forward while Alencar gassed. He notes that Alencar went 4 for 24 on takedowns and without takedowns she cannot win. However, he acknowledges it's a tricky rematch and Alencar could win if she gets her wrestling going.

"luchano is the pick"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Stephanie Luciano

Cody agrees, highlighting Luciano's grappling defense and striking advantage. He notes Alencar's striking is stiff and she mostly holds opponents down. Cody expects Luciano to stuff takedowns and win a decision or late TKO.

"I agree with Luciano it seems like this is kind of her style is that her takedown defense is not necessarily great but her grappling defense is pretty solid"

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Stephanie Luciano

Luciano is the better striker and should have a decided advantage if she keeps the fight standing. However, her takedown defense and fight IQ are concerns, and Alencar could make it close if she completes takedowns. Luciano's youth and damage output lead to a decision win, but confidence is low due to ring rust and Alencar's BJJ threat.

Luciano by decision

"I still believe Luciano will end up getting the better of those exchanges getting the better of the Striking Landing more damage and winning this fight on the scorecards not a whole lot of confidence here"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Stephanie Luciano

Paul picks Luciano, noting her youth, volume, and ability to survive on the ground. He thinks she can keep the fight standing more this time and win by decision or late TKO. He mentions her dengue fever layoff but believes she should be improved.

"I think it minus F 15 um she's probably Fair PR or she's probably a fair favorite to uh to be betting this week"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Stephanie Luciano

The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Luciano based on her size advantage and ability to stuff takedowns. He notes that in their first fight on the Contender Series, Talita Alencar had control time but couldn't finish, and Luciano won the third round decisively. He believes Luciano's defensive jiu-jitsu and striking will carry her to victory in the rematch.

"I'm going to go with Stephanie Luciano lad because she's a bit bigger than her lad and she Stu the takedowns"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Rayanne dos Santos

Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Talita Alencar	0	57 of 130	43%	80 of 156	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:14
Rayanne dos Santos	0	36 of 157	22%	48 of 176	1 of 9	11%	0	0	2:44

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Talita Alencar	34 of 64	53%	34 of 64	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Rayanne dos Santos	11 of 63	17%	13 of 66	0 of 3	0%	0:24
2	Talita Alencar	10 of 22	45%	32 of 47	0 of 0	---	0:14
2	Rayanne dos Santos	16 of 44	36%	25 of 58	1 of 1	100%	2:11
3	Talita Alencar	13 of 44	29%	14 of 45	0 of 1	0%	0:00
3	Rayanne dos Santos	9 of 50	18%	10 of 52	0 of 5	0%	0:09

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Talita Alencar	57 of 130	43%	41 of 104	11 of 17	5 of 9	45 of 117	11 of 12	1 of 1
Rayanne dos Santos	36 of 157	22%	21 of 125	12 of 25	3 of 7	21 of 133	8 of 12	7 of 12

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Talita Alencar	34 of 64	53%	28 of 56	4 of 5	2 of 3	27 of 57	7 of 7	0 of 0
1	Rayanne dos Santos	11 of 63	17%	5 of 49	5 of 12	1 of 2	9 of 59	2 of 4	0 of 0
2	Talita Alencar	10 of 22	45%	4 of 13	4 of 5	2 of 4	7 of 19	2 of 2	1 of 1
2	Rayanne dos Santos	16 of 44	36%	8 of 30	6 of 11	2 of 3	4 of 25	5 of 7	7 of 12
3	Talita Alencar	13 of 44	29%	9 of 35	3 of 7	1 of 2	11 of 41	2 of 3	0 of 0
3	Rayanne dos Santos	9 of 50	18%	8 of 46	1 of 2	0 of 2	8 of 49	1 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Talita Alencar vs. Rayanne Amanda dos Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dos Santos (-148), Alencar (+124)

Round 1
The penultimate UFC card of 2023 is upon us, and it is certainly an event.
Road to UFC 2 Finals
UFC Shanghai
UFC Vegas 83 will bring a small crop of Asian prospects to the forefront, but it will start with two Brazilian ladies going head-to-head at 115 pounds. Invicta FC atomweight champ Amanda (14-6, 0-0 UFC) will be moving up in weight for her promotional debut, while Alencar (4-0-1, 0-0 UFC) was signed off of Dana White’s Contender Series—from a draw. High finish rates from the ladies mean that referee Keith Peterson might have to get involved before it is all said and done, but before they get after it, the strawweight leave their nonsense at the door and wade towards one another without a glove touch in sight. Alencar sticks out a front kick to introduce herself, and Amanda backs off and flicks out a jab. Amanda springs to the side and gets kicked upside the head, and Alencar crashes the pocket and looks for a takedown. When Amanda pushes her off, Alencar looks for a left hand on the break. Alencar reaches out with an overhand right, and she just misses with a subsequent high kick. The ladies slam fists in one another’s faces at the same time, and Alencar wobbles back but gathers her senses and looks to settle down with jabs and head kick attempts. Alencar misses the mark with an overhand right, and Amanda answers her with a solid right that knocks her foe back. Amanda pushes off with a one-two, and as she overcommits to a strike, Alencar closes in on her and snatches hold of a single-leg takedown. Amanda backs herself up against the fence, keeping her balance, and she leans back against the wall. When she pushes off, she takes a right hand on the chin. Amanda comes out firing, and Alencar responds in kind as they crack one another in the chops. Amanda wings a left hand high to open up a straight right hand down the middle, and Alencar takes a few steps back and gets driven towards the cage wall. Amanda rings her bell with a one-two, and she goes low with a kick to mix things up. Amanda strings several punches together, and she ends a combination with a right hand right on the ear. The two slow down to not burn out their gas tanks early, and Amanda settles down with a few jabs. Alencar attempts a takedown in open cage, and Amanda shoves her back and starts lighting her up with body shots and those up high. Right as the bell sounds, Amanda leaps in the air, and she bounces of Alencar’s forehead—it is a legal blow, technically, so nothing else comes of it.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Amanda
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Amanda
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Amanda

Round 2
The ladies meet in the middle, and Alencar reintroduces herself with a winging right hand that bounces off the guard, and a head kick try that makes her topple over. Amanda backs off, as if to signal her foe to stand back up, but Alencar butt-scoots towards her. Amanda motions for her to stand up, and Peterson gets between them to make it so. When upright, Alencar throws hard but cannot find her range with her strikes. Amanda prods at her with a low kick, and she leans back from a pair of high kicks that buzz past her. Amanda calmly works her way in, peppering with the occasional kick, and shutting down much of anything coming back her way. When Alencar attempts a head kick, Amanda dips and smacks her in the lead leg. Both women paw out front kicks several feet away from the other, and Alencar struggles to get in. Alencar aims one kick low as Amanda springs from side to side, and the former Invicta champ ducks a pair of punches and nails Alencar with a right hand. Alencar crowds her and jams her up against the fence, and she spams knees to the body to stay busy. With both underhooks, Alencar muscles Amanda to the mat courtesy of a body lock takedown. Alencar lands on top in half guard, and she looks for side control while also attempting an armlock on the other side. Amanda defends against the submission while pushing the shorter woman off of her, and she connects with a few on the chest to keep Alencar at bay. Alencar lowers herself down to deliver some powerful strikes, and she stings Amanda with one right before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 3
Alencar takes to the center of the cage to start the final frame, and she leads the dance with a one-two as Amanda ducks to the side. Amanda looks for her own short combination, and she ends up countering Alencar with a short right when Alencar attacks. Alencar kicks the body and reaches out with a left hand, and Amanda’s own offense is relatively muted. Amanda looks to strike when Alencar ducks down for a takedown, and she pushes Alencar to the side and whiffs on a haymaker when she breaks away. Alencar tosses out three punches that bounce off the raised guard, and Amanda gets one back on the temple. This same type of exchange repeats itself, with Alencar not landing while Amanda gets one in. Amanda swings for the fences, and Alencar is well out of harm’s way in time. Alencar, not wanting to get hit by one of those booming shots, shoots for a single. Amanda stuffs it and sprints to the side to reset. Alencar meanders forward, attempting kicks and punches, and Amanda calmly responds with a single damaging leg kick. Amanda doubles up on a jab as Alencar walks her down, and she hops back to avoid a head kick and comes up short with an overhand right. Both women get off right hands during a brief exchange, and Amanda separates and connects with a low kick. Alencar attempts a single, and Amanda stuffs her and busts her in the chops with a right hand. Amanda is swinging with everything she has, and she catches Alencar at the end of a right. Amanda smiles with 10 seconds left on the clock, as she draws Alencar into a brawl. This works to her advantage, as she rings Alencar up with a few strikes before Alencar tries to clinch up. This position ends the fight, and Amanda, all smiles, looks for a hug from her now former opponent.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Amanda (29-28 Amanda)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Amanda (29-28 Amanda)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Amanda (29-28 Amanda)

The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Rayanne Amanda dos Santos via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Rayanne dos Santos

Cody picks Rayanne dos Santos. He notes that she is a natural atomweight moving up, but she has speed and better striking. Cody points out that Alencar is a BJJ specialist with poor cardio and limited MMA experience. He thinks dos Santos can keep the fight standing and outpoint Alencar. Cody also mentions that dos Santos has good takedown defense and cardio from five-round fights.

"I got to take the slight favorite"

Bookie Beatdown

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Rayanne dos Santos

Paul picks Rayanne dos Santos. He notes that she has a well-rounded skill set and better striking. Paul points out that Alencar is one-dimensional and gassed in her Contender Series fight. He thinks dos Santos's reach and striking advantage will be key. Paul is not forcing an underdog pick here and goes with the favorite.

"it's rayon Amanda the favorite minus 160 for me"

Bookie Beatdown

Ariane Carnelossi - Fight History

SCHED vs Ketlen Souza

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Jun 06, 2026

138 MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)

Ketlen Souza

The host picks Souza confidently, stating that she is a little bit better anywhere the fight takes place outside of muscular ability. He notes that Souza is a better striker and a better grappler than Carnelossi, and expects her to cruise to a comfortable decision, likely 30-27 or 29-28.

"I think Souza probably cruises to a comfortable decision. 30-27, maybe 29-28."

138 MMA

AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)

Ketlen Souza

AJ believes Ketlen Souza has improved significantly since her prior loss to Carnelossi, with sharper boxing, better pressure, and cage cutting. He views Carnelossi as having stagnated, relying on power Muay Thai but lacking technical growth. AJ expects Souza to win a striking clinic, likely by decision, though a finish is possible.

over 2.5 rounds minus 225; Souza by decision

"I'm going with Katellyn Sa to get her revenge. Carnellosi beat her prior to getting into the UFC."

MMA Experts

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Ketlen Souza

Angelo picks Ketlen Souza, stating she is the better striker and grappler. He believes Souza will pressure forward, get Carnelossi to overcommit, and then secure a takedown. He notes that Souza's bad offensive takedowns are better than Carnelossi's worst takedown defense, and if it goes to the ground, Souza might get a finish.

"Kaitlin Sza is going to pressure forward. I think she gets Ariani to overcommit to just a wild punch and then she will get a takedown."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Ketlen Souza

Big Brady picks Ketlen Souza to win by decision. He notes that Souza has improved since their first fight and is better everywhere, but he has concerns about her fight IQ after her performance against Bruna Brasil where she clinched for 15 minutes instead of finishing. He sees a potential knockout or submission but leans decision.

by decision

"I think Sosa has gotten a lot better. You know, I think Sos is, you know, pretty much better everywhere at this point."

DFS by the Numbers

Bum MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)

Ketlen Souza

Ketlen Souza is in her prime and has a nice jab with aggressive volume. Ariane Carnelossi is not a volume striker and wants takedowns, but Souza's takedown defense should hold. Souza will win a decision, as Carnelossi has been inactive and lost last time out.

decision win

"She's gonna come out here and she's gonna decision win Ariana Carlosi."

Bum MMA

Fight Night Picks Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Ketlen Souza

Ketlen Souza is picked because she is the better striker with power and can grapple. Ariane Carnelossi has poor takedown defense (22%) and cannot grapple. Souza should win by submission or decision, as she has a clear advantage everywhere.

Ketlen Souza wins by submission or decision

"Kaitlin Sa should win this fight through and through. Carnalosi is not really good in my opinion."

Fight Night Picks

Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)

Ketlen Souza

Souza is a better wrestler and grappler than Carnelossi, who hasn't won a real fight since 2021. Carnelossi's only recent win was by DQ, and she was losing that fight. Souza should control the grappling exchanges and win a decision.

"I think I have to go with Kelzo winning this fight."

Greedo Plays MMA

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)

Ketlen Souza

Lucrative James picks Ketlen Souza to win the rematch, citing her physical and skill improvements since their 2019 fight. He notes Souza's better conditioning, improved grappling, and recent performances against higher-level competition. He believes Carnelossi's wins since then are unimpressive and that Souza will avenge her loss via decision.

"I got Catelyn Soua to win this fight. I got her to get revenge over Ariana. And I'll say it's via decision."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)

Ketlen Souza

Souza has improved since their first fight, showing better durability and a slicker striking approach. She can wear on Carnelossi with clinch and grappling, and should be able to take Carnelossi's biggest shots. Souza wins a close decision, though the -285 line is too steep.

Souza by decision; line should be closer to -185 or -150

"I think she should be able to take the biggest shots from Carnalosi here and go on to win a very close decision."

MMA Lock of the Night

LOSS vs Talita Alencar

Submission R3 4:36 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Talita Alencar	0	60 of 100	60%	79 of 122	5 of 8	62%	2	0	6:10
Ariane Carnelossi	0	25 of 76	32%	50 of 106	0 of 1	0%	0	0	2:19

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Talita Alencar	18 of 30	60%	26 of 38	2 of 4	50%	0	1:51
1	Ariane Carnelossi	1 of 17	5%	24 of 43	0 of 0	---	0	1:39
2	Talita Alencar	20 of 39	51%	23 of 45	2 of 3	66%	1	1:30
2	Ariane Carnelossi	10 of 35	28%	11 of 37	0 of 1	0%	0	0:40
3	Talita Alencar	22 of 31	70%	30 of 39	1 of 1	100%	1	2:49
3	Ariane Carnelossi	14 of 24	58%	15 of 26	0 of 0	---	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Talita Alencar	60 of 100	60%	34 of 67	19 of 23	7 of 10	31 of 65	14 of 15	15 of 20
Ariane Carnelossi	25 of 76	32%	10 of 57	3 of 5	12 of 14	25 of 71	0 of 5	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Talita Alencar	18 of 30	60%	9 of 18	8 of 10	1 of 2	5 of 12	9 of 9	4 of 9
1	Ariane Carnelossi	1 of 17	5%	1 of 17	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 14	0 of 3	0 of 0
2	Talita Alencar	20 of 39	51%	10 of 25	7 of 9	3 of 5	14 of 32	5 of 6	1 of 1
2	Ariane Carnelossi	10 of 35	28%	2 of 24	2 of 4	6 of 7	10 of 33	0 of 2	0 of 0
3	Talita Alencar	22 of 31	70%	15 of 24	4 of 4	3 of 3	12 of 21	0 of 0	10 of 10
3	Ariane Carnelossi	14 of 24	58%	7 of 16	1 of 1	6 of 7	14 of 24	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Talita Alencar

"Ariane Carnelossi is going to lose this fight. I don't know if I'm going to spend nine grand on Talita Alencar though."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Talita Alencar

second round submission

"I like Allen Carr. Give me Allen Carr to get takedowns and potentially get a submission. I'll say second round submission for Toita Allen Carr."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Talita Alencar

Alencar opened at -500, now -230; Carnelossi opened at +385, now +195.

"I agree that carnalossi is just very strong but also very stiff and awkward everywhere it seems."

MMA Vivisection

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Talita Alencar

Talita Alencar wins by decision

"I got Toita Alan Carr in this one."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

surprised by the odds

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

"I'm going to go with Ariane Carnelossi. The shoulders are a dead giveaway and when I'm not sure, I'm going to go with this."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Talita Alencar

Alencar opened at -500, now -230; Carnelossi opened at +385, now +195.

"I'm just gonna take alan car. Carnalossi is strong but stands really stiff, head hunts like crazy, so she's really easy to take off of her feet."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Piera Rodríguez

DQ (headbutts) R2 3:16 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Ariane Carnelossi	1	40 of 81	49%	51 of 102	1 of 2	50%	0	0	3:53
Piera Rodríguez	0	16 of 49	32%	46 of 89	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Ariane Carnelossi	0	19 of 50	38%	24 of 60	1 of 1	100%	1:22
1	Piera Rodríguez	0	10 of 33	30%	32 of 63	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Ariane Carnelossi	1	21 of 31	67%	27 of 42	0 of 1	0%	2:31
2	Piera Rodríguez	0	6 of 16	37%	14 of 26	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Ariane Carnelossi	40 of 81	49%	34 of 73	6 of 8	0 of 0	22 of 60	11 of 13	7 of 8
Piera Rodríguez	16 of 49	32%	13 of 43	2 of 2	1 of 4	12 of 43	4 of 6	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Ariane Carnelossi	19 of 50	38%	18 of 49	1 of 1	0 of 0	14 of 43	2 of 3	3 of 4
1	Piera Rodríguez	10 of 33	30%	9 of 29	0 of 0	1 of 4	9 of 31	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Ariane Carnelossi	21 of 31	67%	16 of 24	5 of 7	0 of 0	8 of 17	9 of 10	4 of 4
2	Piera Rodríguez	6 of 16	37%	4 of 14	2 of 2	0 of 0	3 of 12	3 of 4	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Piera Rodriguez vs. Ariane Carnelossi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-192), Carnelossi (+160)

Round 1
After over a year off, Venezuelan striker Rodriguez (9-1, 2-1 UFC) will be making her return to the cage hoping to rebound from her first career defeat. She meets Carnelossi (14-3, 2-2 UFC), whose layoff exceeds her own—“Sorriso” has not competed since May 2022. The two strawweights will look to shake off any rust while referee Mark Smith watches on. With plenty of respect for one another, they gladly touch ‘em up before throwing down. After some circling, the first strike comes from Carnelossi in the form of a low kick. Rodriguez plods forward letting her hands go in a short but effective spray, and Carnelossi backs her off with a counter. This same exchange happens again, with Rodriguez wading into combat and landing first but getting struck last. Both women land on the other in their punch flurries, and a little over a minute in and Carnelossi is already showing damage on her nose. Rodriguez changes levels, and Carnelossi shoves her away with her fists flying. Rodriguez sneaks in three punches before darting away to evade the counter, and she does this once more. Carnelossi allows Rodriguez to get to her so that she can counter, but Rodriguez is getting off her own shots. Carnelossi surges into action with a heavy right hand after Rodriguez cuts her open on the left cheek, and Rodriguez stays on her bike to get away from the worst of it. Carnelossi bullrushes her foe, driving Rodriguez back to the cage and stumbling her momentarily when letting her hands go. Rodriguez considers another level change, and she meets a stone wall that analyst Din Thomas remarks looks like Sean Sherk. Rodriguez sells out for a takedown, punching her way into the attempt, and she slings Carnelossi to the mat. When they land, their limbs are tangled in their equipment, and Smith makes sure to prevent any wardrobe malfunctions and lets them go. They proceed to slug it out from this horizontal position, with Carnelossi fearlessly throwing hands off her back and flailing her feet to get Rodriguez off of her. Rodriguez considers backing off for a standup, but she instead races ahead and hammers Carnelossi with ground-and-pound until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
The strawweights bump their fists together before getting back to it. Carnelossi is the one pressing forward, but she is met by a strong right hand and a knee up the middle. Rodriguez looks to capitalize on this by shooting on the hips, and Carnelossi pushes her back. Rodriguez switches to attack with another knee in the belly, and she spins her foe around and pushes her to the wall. Rodriguez drops down for a single-leg takedown, and Carnelossi hops around on her other foot to remain upright. The women trade elbows, and Rodriguez hammers her with a number of knees. Rodriguez pursues another takedown, this time going after a double as she tries to clasp her hands together around the backside. Carnelossi shuts this down and gains a little space, resulting in a brief brawl that allows her to escape. Rodriguez times a perfect front kick that blasts Carnelossi right in the face, and Carnelossi is on rubber legs and backs away. Rodriguez charges her and swings her fists until Carnelossi falls over, and
Rodriguez leaps on top and headbutts Carnelossi as Smith tells them to watch their heads. “Sorriso” tries to defend herself as Rodriguez is pummeling her with strikes, and Rodriguez sits up and smacks Carnelossi with another headbutt.
Smith calls time after the second egregious foul, and the review officials determine it was a clear headbutt. Carnelossi sits up after a couple minutes of recovery, but she is still seeing stars and compromised from both the legal and illegal blows. Carnelossi stands up after about three minutes and shakes her head, and she lowers herself back down on the fence. Carnelossi sits back down, looking upset as she tries to clear her head, and she keeps shaking her head. The doctor assesses her condition once more, and he advises Smith that the fight should not continue. The only question remaining is if the fight is ruled a no contest or a disqualification.

The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Piera Rodriguez R2 3:16 via Disqualification (Headbutts)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Piera Rodríguez

Angelo acknowledges Piera Rodríguez is the better striker and grappler, but her fight IQ is questionable. Ariane Carnelossi is all brawn and strength, which could be enough in this division. However, the two-year layoff for Carnelossi and Piera's ability to bomb away and mix in takedowns should be the difference. He expects the fight to go the distance, similar to the Tabatha Ricci vs. Tisha Torres fight.

over 2.5 rounds (if line is reasonable)

"I do think the layoff the inactivity and pera's ability to just bomb away and then work in a taked down are going to be the difference here"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

Cody provides an extensive breakdown: Rodríguez is a front-runner with suspect cardio and low volume, while Carnelossi is physically strong, has good cardio, and can get back up from takedowns. He notes Carnelossi's fight against Lupita Godinez showed she can survive multiple takedowns and still be competitive. Cody believes Carnelossi will outwork Rodríguez and win a decision, making her a great underdog play.

"Automatic caral Losi bet let's get this thing done probably the PRP pick."

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

Carnelossi is a tank of a human being returning after over two years off. She has power and explosiveness that should dictate the pace on the feet. However, her takedown defense is a concern, and ring rust is a factor. Rodriguez has decent striking and wrestling but may not be able to control Carnelossi on the mat for long. Expects Carnelossi to batter Rodriguez on the feet and win a decision.

Small shot on Carnelossi as underdog.

"I don't mind a small shot on caral Losi as the underdog in this"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

Paul likes Carnelossi as an underdog due to her physical strength and cardio edge. He notes Rodríguez has low volume and tends to fade in later rounds. Carnelossi has shown she can get back up from takedowns and has power in her punches. Paul believes Carnelossi's durability and pace will be too much for Rodríguez.

"If any dog has my attention this week I feel like it's caral OSI."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Piera Rodríguez

The MMA Guru picks Piera Rodríguez over Ariane Carnelossi, citing Carnelossi's suspected PED use and tendency to gas out. He notes that Carnelossi has been taken down frequently in past fights, including eight takedowns by Loopy Godinez, and that Rodríguez is good at holding back position. He expects Rodríguez to win via takedowns and control, possibly going the distance.

"I'm gon to go with Pier Rodriguez um she's been more active I think she's more committed to the game"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Loopy Godinez

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Loopy Godinez	0	9 of 20	45%	23 of 35	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
Ariane Carnelossi	0	46 of 61	75%	130 of 173	8 of 8	100%	2	0	13:26

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Loopy Godinez	2 of 8	25%	3 of 9	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
1	Ariane Carnelossi	6 of 11	54%	31 of 41	4 of 4	100%	1	4:20
2	Loopy Godinez	3 of 7	42%	9 of 14	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Ariane Carnelossi	23 of 30	76%	49 of 61	1 of 1	100%	1	4:24
3	Loopy Godinez	4 of 5	80%	11 of 12	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Ariane Carnelossi	17 of 20	85%	50 of 71	3 of 3	100%	0	4:42

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Loopy Godinez	9 of 20	45%	7 of 18	1 of 1	1 of 1	4 of 13	3 of 5	2 of 2
Ariane Carnelossi	46 of 61	75%	36 of 49	10 of 12	0 of 0	11 of 19	8 of 12	27 of 30

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Loopy Godinez	2 of 8	25%	1 of 7	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 5	1 of 3	0 of 0
1	Ariane Carnelossi	6 of 11	54%	5 of 9	1 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 3	2 of 3	4 of 5
2	Loopy Godinez	3 of 7	42%	2 of 6	1 of 1	0 of 0	3 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Ariane Carnelossi	23 of 30	76%	18 of 24	5 of 6	0 of 0	11 of 16	0 of 1	12 of 13
3	Loopy Godinez	4 of 5	80%	4 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 1	2 of 2	2 of 2
3	Ariane Carnelossi	17 of 20	85%	13 of 16	4 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0	6 of 8	11 of 12

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Ariane Carnelossi vs. Lupita Godinez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Godinez (-170), Carnelossi (+150)

Round 1
In her entire UFC run that began in 2019, Carnelossi (14-2, 2-1 UFC) has competed three times, thanks in part to injury and major surgery on her back. In comparison, “Loopy” Godinez (7-2, 2-2 UFC) debuted for the UFC in 2021, and this is her fifth walk to the Octagon. The strawweights will square off with oversight from outstanding referee Jason Herzog, and there is no interest in a glove touch before they get after it. Carnelossi comes out throwing, and Godinez answers her with an attempt to clinch, but the Brazilian has no interest in doing so. Carnelossi wades into power punches, and Godinez slips them and grabs hold of Carnelossi’s arm to throw her down to the mat. Godinez goes after an odd-angle choke in a wild scramble, and Carnelossi gets back up for one seconds before “Loopy” pulls her back down. Godinez snags on to a guillotine choke, and she lets go to take Carnelossi’s back when Carnelossi is on her knees. Godinez cranks on an unorthodox neck crank without a hook in, and Carnelossi powers through so that she can pursue a single. Godinez controls Carnelossi’s ankle from behind, disallowing “Sorriso” to sneak out the back door and try anything. Carnelossi crawls her way to the fence, and Godinez follows her and elbows her upside the head as she looks to get a hook in. Carnelossi powers back up with sheer muscle, and Godinez controls her all the way back down to the mat impressively. Godinez hangs on to Carnelossi, tripping her out and taking her for a ride with her hands clasped around Carnelossi’s chest. Godinez slings her down, and Godinez sets up a shoulder choke when Carnelossi defends with a guillotine choke. The Brazilian abandons her own guillotine so she does not fall into a Von Preux, and Godinez keeps her foe down on the mat with that arm-triangle. Godinez works Carnelossi over with knees to the body and punches, mixing in the occasional elbow as she gives Carnelossi fits. Carnelossi is stuck with her head pinned between the floor and the wall, and Godinez pounds her fist into Carnelossi’s face again and again. Godinez works the thigh with elbows, and controls Carnelossi to the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Godinez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Godinez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Godinez

Round 2
The Brazilian comes out with a left hook, but she is well off the mark when she swings it as Godinez is already backing off to kick the body. Godinez sneaks in a right hand, and Carnelossi is shocked and gets cracked with another that wobbles her as Carnelossi tries to counter. Godinez drives through with a double, slamming “Sorriso” down to the mat with emphasis, and she immediately begins to hammer Carnelossi with brutal elbows. Carnelossi struggles to keep her wits about her, and she slowly covers up and tries to turn the tables, only for Godinez to pressure her to the wall with Carnelossi on her knees. Godinez blasts Carnelossi in the ribs with a few knees, and Carnelossi gives up her back to turn away from the blows. Godinez happily takes it, and she gets both hooks in and starts fishing for a choke. Carnelossi tugs on the fence with fingers and toes in an effort to get some leverage, and Godinez meets a sweep attempt from the Brazilian to pull Carnelossi away from the cage wall. Godinez grips the toes for a possible toe hold, and Carnelossi yanks her foot free and subsequently begins to eat elbows. Godinez, from half guard, goes after a two-on-one wrist lock to wrench Carnelossi either up for a keylock or down for a kimura – whatever works for her, as she is firmly in the driver’s seat. Carnelossi turns to her knees as she breaks the les around her own waist, and she then falls to her back as Godinez goes after an arm-triangle choke. Godinez crushes down with the arm-triangle choke while in half guard, and she tries to step over to side control while squeezing the neck with all her might. Carnelossi is struggling and uses the “answer the telephone” defense to give herself just a little bit of breathing room. Carnelossi sits up and pushes Godinez’ arms back to sit up to her knees, and Godinez answers by aiming for a guillotine choke. Godinez cannot keep Carnelossi down as the last few seconds are on the clock, and when they stand, Godinez cracks her with a right hand for good measure to end the dominant round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Godinez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Godinez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Godinez

Round 3
The final round opens with an aggressive Carnelossi, and she throws a right hand and walks straight into a double. Godinez tackles Carnelossi straight to the mat, and she lands straight into side control. Carnelossi turns to her knees, and Godinez punches her in the side of the head when moving. Godinez keeps working the Brazilian with left hands as Carnelossi tries desperately to crawl her way to the fence and stand. Godinez hooks Carnelossi’s legs, and Carnelossi rolls through suddenly for a leglock. Godinez defends well and circles around to return to her position that allows her to land ground-and-pound, and she sucks out Carnelossi’s hips to return her to the floor. They trade short punches, as Carnelossi is leaning her back up against the fence while on her seat. Carnelossi bursts her way upright again, and Godinez ties her up in the clinch to knee and uppercut her repeatedly. “Loopy” decides to put on a show, and she lifts her foe completely up in the air and slams Carnelossi down to the mat. Godinez clings on top and hooks Carnelossi’s legs with her own, and she postures up to elbow Carnelossi a few times as Herzog takes a close look at the action. Godinez continues to grind with elbows, and in half guard she is doing some damage with her strikes. Carnelossi turns to sit up and try to reverse the position, but Godinez meets her every step of the way. Carnelossi eventually stands up, and Godinez knees her, punches her and snags a double to plant Carnelossi right back on the ground to make a statement. Godinez ends the fight with some powerful strikes, and she has likely picked up the biggest win of her career while putting on arguably her best performance to date.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Godinez (30-26 Godinez)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Godinez (30-26 Godinez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Godinez (30-26 Godinez)

The Official Result
Lupita Godinez def. Ariane Carnelossi via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)

Loopy Godinez

Angelo picks Loopy Godinez but expresses hesitation, noting that Carnelossi is hard to push around and that Godinez may struggle to get the fight to the ground. He compares the matchup to Carnelossi's previous fights where she won despite losing exchanges. He mentions he may switch his pick after weigh-ins.

"I have to go with lupita gadines here carnalsi was losing the striking exchanges first nunes but was able to make it happen with the wrestling"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Loopy Godinez

Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by decision, but he is leaning and flip-flopped. He thinks the striking is competitive, with Carnelossi having power and volume, but Godinez has better wrestling. Godinez showed good takedowns against Loma Lookboonmee, and Carnelossi has poor takedown defense (25%). Brady believes Godinez can get takedowns and control the fight on top. However, Carnelossi is dangerous and strong, making this a close fight. He edges Godinez but with little confidence.

decision

"I'm going to take loopy I'm going to check it out I'm going to take loopy to win I think she can get takedowns I think she can get top control"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Loopy Godinez

Cody picks Lupita Godinez, citing her excellent wrestling and technical striking. He notes that Godinez consistently scores multiple takedowns and controls fights. Carnelossi's takedown defense is suspect, and even if she keeps it standing, Godinez has the striking advantage. Cody believes Godinez's wrestling, cardio, and pace will be decisive, and the -170 price is reasonable.

"i'm licking my lips about this one but of course it's women's mma it'll probably blow up in my face"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

Daniel Levi picks Ariane Carnelossi as a slight underdog, expecting her to pull away down the stretch. He thinks Carnelossi's power and volume will be decisive if she can get back up from takedowns. He is not confident because Godinez may blanket her with wrestling. He does not bet the fight.

Daniel does not bet this fight. He mentions the value on Carnelossi but passes.

"I'm gonna go opposite way, I'm gonna take Carnalossi to kind of pull away down the stretch, give up some takedowns, get back up and then show off the difference in power and volume."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)

Loopy Godinez

The host is very high on Loopy Godinez, calling this his bread and butter spot with a minus 180 favorite in women's MMA. He highlights Godinez's technical wrestling advantage over Carnelossi, who has suspect takedown defense. He expects Godinez to mix in striking to set up takedowns, then grind on top and possibly find a submission. He warns against Godinez striking too much but trusts her boxing if needed. He is considering making this his lock of the night play.

"this seems like one of those spots that that's my bread and butter so what i mean by that is women's mma and then a minus 180ish favorite that's exactly what we're getting here with lupita go dennis"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick. He considered Carnelossi at +200 but the line moved to +150, which scared him off. He notes that Carnelossi's win over Naliang was unimpressive as Naliang gassed. Paul calls it a dogger pass situation and does not express a preference.

"i'm gonna say it's a dogger pass situation um but i don't love it at plus 150 anymore"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Loopy Godinez

The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez, trusting her well-rounded skills and potential. He notes that Godinez beat Loma Lookboonmee, who he considers one of the better strawweights, and that her only UFC loss came when moving up in weight. He criticizes Carnelossi's competition and implies she may be using performance-enhancing drugs. He believes Godinez has good enough grappling and striking to win, and that Carnelossi hasn't impressed him.

"i'm going to go with lupita godinez over yariani canelo see i've seen a lot of people going for the underdog of ariani kind of loosey here but i am gonna trust in lupita godinez"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Istela Nunes

Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:57 · UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · Oct 16, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Ariane Carnelossi	0	62 of 119	52%	98 of 156	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Istela Nunes	0	36 of 108	33%	76 of 158	5 of 7	71%	1	0	7:04

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Ariane Carnelossi	31 of 63	49%	37 of 69	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
1	Istela Nunes	18 of 52	34%	34 of 70	1 of 1	100%	0	2:21
2	Ariane Carnelossi	18 of 29	62%	46 of 57	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Istela Nunes	9 of 30	30%	27 of 55	3 of 4	75%	0	3:33
3	Ariane Carnelossi	13 of 27	48%	15 of 30	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Istela Nunes	9 of 26	34%	15 of 33	1 of 2	50%	1	1:10

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Ariane Carnelossi	62 of 119	52%	37 of 88	16 of 22	9 of 9	54 of 109	8 of 10	0 of 0
Istela Nunes	36 of 108	33%	33 of 103	2 of 4	1 of 1	33 of 100	3 of 8	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Ariane Carnelossi	31 of 63	49%	17 of 47	10 of 12	4 of 4	27 of 59	4 of 4	0 of 0
1	Istela Nunes	18 of 52	34%	17 of 50	0 of 1	1 of 1	17 of 49	1 of 3	0 of 0
2	Ariane Carnelossi	18 of 29	62%	12 of 21	4 of 6	2 of 2	14 of 23	4 of 6	0 of 0
2	Istela Nunes	9 of 30	30%	8 of 29	1 of 1	0 of 0	7 of 25	2 of 5	0 of 0
3	Ariane Carnelossi	13 of 27	48%	8 of 20	2 of 4	3 of 3	13 of 27	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Istela Nunes	9 of 26	34%	8 of 24	1 of 2	0 of 0	9 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Istela Nunes vs. Ariane Carnelossi

Round 1
There are now 10 fights on this maligned UFC Fight Night 195 card, one that is counterprogrammed against Bellator 268 in a few hours. We begin the event at the lightest division on the roster, when Carnelossi (13-2, 1-1 UFC) and her impressive musculature takes on promotional newcomer and fellow countrywoman Nunes (6-1,1 NC; 0-0 UFC). While Nunes is billed as a 7-1 fighter, the first win on her ledger the UFC is listing took place in muay Thai. The night begins thankfully with no nonsense thanks to referee Keith Peterson, and the two strawweights touch gloves before throwing down. Carnelossi immediately opens up with punch combinations, swarming the newcomer with a barrage of strikes. Nunes defends herself and backs away, but “Sorriso” chases her down and slams her in the face with heavy punches. Carnelossi continues to rage forward, and Nunes deftly slips back to land a leg kick, and she counters Carnelossi repeatedly. The two brawl it out and a few punches from Carnelossi draw blood from the nose of her opponent. Carnelossi pursues a takedown as she gets clipped, and Nunes defends the takedown by clearly grabbing the fence repeatedly. Peterson slaps her hand away several times and even grabs hold of it briefly to make her leg go, but she goes right back to grabbing it to stay upright. Peterson allowed a little nonsense in that situation there. Although Carnelossi is finally able to get her down her efforts do not reward her for long as Nunes springs right back up and gains separation. Carnelossi is not going to let her off the hook, as she blitzes towards her opponent with winging punches. She ends up clinching up again when considering a takedown, but the newcomer remains upright but gets jammed into the wire. Carnelossi keeps heavy chest pressure to grind Nunes into the wall, landing a few short shots but otherwise clinging on for dear life. Nunes looks to set up a Thai clinch with her back to the fence, getting off a couple knees and strikes before pushing off with a minute left in the round. Nunes starts spamming front kicks to the body, and they engage in a brief but nasty slugfest, landing flush on one another. Nunes takes a step back, scores a solid one-two and evades the counters. Carnelossi’s strikes are wilder while Nunes tries to compose herself, but defense is at a premium as they both land at a high clip. They tag one another on the chin with powerful punches, and right at the bell, Carnelossi lands flush and has to apologize because it might be after the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nunes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nunes

Round 2
The strawweights pick right up where they left off, throwing hammers. Nunes strings a quartet of punches together, and Carnelossi answers with a vengeance throwing looping hooks and clubbing Nunes in the face. Carnelossi’s headhunting approach does allow Nunes to counter her, but the sheer forward momentum of Carnelossi pushes Nunes into the wire. Carnelossi pursues a takedown, and once more Nunes grabs the fence to keep her balance. Peterson sees it but does not say anything, and Nunes walks back up to her feet. Carnelossi embraces the grind up against the wall, with Nunes attempting to frame off and land strikes up the middle as Carnelossi remains pressed tightly to her. Carnelossi ducks down for a single leg takedown, and Nunes looks for a power guillotine on the way down to the mat but bails on it when her backside hits the canvas. Carnelossi keeps her foe’s legs trapped beneath her leg triangle, but Nunes slithers one out and then the other before making her way upright. Nunes stands, and she knees Carnelossi on the chin once, but “Sorriso” does not register the blow as she hangs on with everything she has. Nunes stays busy with her back trapped, punching to the side occasionally, and she sneaks out the side to break free and just miss with a head kick. Nunes pops Carnelossi with a few punches as she backpedals, with the shorter Carnelossi crowding her and never giving her space to breathe. Nunes lets loose with a body kick, and this draws a sharp exhale from her opponent, with the latter appearing to slow. Nunes chains punches into body kicks, and she clips Carnelossi with a right hand before Carnelossi barrels towards her and slams her into the ground. Carnelossi manages to score a few left hands when Nunes is seated against the fencing, and Nunes appears flustered as she cannot get up thanks to Carnelossi’s position on top. Nunes powers back to her feet, but she does not get free before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi

Round 3
Nunes begins the round by circling away to escape the power punches from her marauding opponent. Carnelossi attacks without faltering, throwing big punches and connecting more often than not. Nunes sticks and moves, but she cannot evade every one of the hooks coming her way. Nunes pierces the midsection with a few kicks, and she ducks out of the way as Carnelossi charges at her. They both just miss with single power strikes, and Nunes gets off a right hand only to get smacked with a counter that knocks her back into the wall. Carnelossi uses this momentum to go after a single, and Nunes grabs the fence again to try to pull her way up as Peterson slaps at her hand. When Nunes looks to scramble, Carnelossi climbs on to a three-quarter mount before getting a hook in and partially taking Nunes’ back.
Carnelossi hunts for a choke, and she snakes an arm beneath the throat. “Sorriso” senses that this is her moment to strike, and she snags the grip with her other arm to lock the rear-naked choke in completely.
The forearm under the chin, Nunes looks around, fights the grip for a second and then surrenders. The submission win is now just the second of Carnelossi’s career, who lands her first since a keylock in 2016.

The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Istela Nunes R3 2:57 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Istela Nunes

Angelo picks Nunes as an underdog but is hesitant due to her three-year layoff and USADA suspension. He notes Nunes is the more technical striker with speed and versatility, while Carnelossi is aggressive and strong but sloppy. He worries about Nunes' timing after the layoff but believes if she finds a rhythm, she will out-strike Carnelossi. He does not bet the moneyline but considers prop bets like plus 3.5 points or win inside distance/decision no action.

plus 3.5 points, win inside distance/decision no action

"I like Nunes in this fight as an underdog I don't like her enough to bet on her"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)

Istela Nunes

Big Brady picks Istela Nunes as a dog, citing her Muay Thai background and technical striking advantage. He notes Carnelossi is hittable with poor striking defense, but acknowledges Nunes has a three-year layoff and questions about her ground game. He is hesitant to bet due to the unknowns, but picks Nunes by decision.

by decision

"i'm actually gonna take a shot on the dog in terms of a pick there's just too many question marks for me to bet it though i'm going to pick estela nunes to win by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

Cody leans toward Carnelossi, noting her strength and physicality. He mentions that Nunes has fought only once in three years due to contract issues with ONE Championship, making her ring rust a concern. He acknowledges Carnelossi's reach disadvantage but thinks her tank-like build and cardio can carry her.

"i would say that she keeps that momentum going"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

Daniel picks Carnelossi due to her UFC experience and power, comparing her style to Jessica Andrade. He notes that Carnelossi has one-hitter-quitter power that can trouble strawweights, and she rebounded well after a cut stoppage loss. He acknowledges Istela Nunes is scrappy and has finishes, but the USADA suspension and debut questions make him lean toward Carnelossi.

"i gotta go with carnalosi she's got that ufc experience under her belt"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

Carnelossi is a forward-pressure brawler who moves forward and throws big bombs, similar to a female John Lineker. Nunes has a long layoff and USADA suspension, making her a question mark. Carnelossi by decision is the play because Nunes is durable and likely to eat shots for 15 minutes.

Carnelossi by decision +165

"i like the carnilosi decision i do think that nunes will be able to eat some shots here and we'll see this go for 15 minutes so i like carne lucy by decision at plus 165."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick, admitting he is not familiar with Nunes and needs to study the fight more. He provides background on both fighters but does not state a preference.

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi due to her superior experience and competition level. He highlights her 'man arms' and physical strength, as well as her proven ground game and stand-up, including a body kick KO. He predicts a ground-and-pound TKO in the second round, noting Carnelossi's cardio and ability to finish late.

ground and pound tko in the second round

"i'm picking man arms mcgee for the win here arianny carlos will get it done"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Liang Na

TKO (punches) R2 1:28 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Ariane Carnelossi	0	19 of 27	70%	36 of 47	3 of 4	75%	1	2	2:48
Liang Na	0	24 of 32	75%	91 of 113	0 of 0	---	0	3	2:36

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Ariane Carnelossi	13 of 19	68%	26 of 34	2 of 3	66%	1	2	2:25
1	Liang Na	16 of 20	80%	65 of 81	0 of 0	---	0	2	1:55
2	Ariane Carnelossi	6 of 8	75%	10 of 13	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:23
2	Liang Na	8 of 12	66%	26 of 32	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:41

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Ariane Carnelossi	19 of 27	70%	13 of 21	6 of 6	0 of 0	10 of 17	7 of 7	2 of 3
Liang Na	24 of 32	75%	23 of 31	0 of 0	1 of 1	6 of 11	5 of 5	13 of 16

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Ariane Carnelossi	13 of 19	68%	9 of 15	4 of 4	0 of 0	6 of 11	5 of 5	2 of 3
1	Liang Na	16 of 20	80%	16 of 20	0 of 0	0 of 0	4 of 6	4 of 4	8 of 10
2	Ariane Carnelossi	6 of 8	75%	4 of 6	2 of 2	0 of 0	4 of 6	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Liang Na	8 of 12	66%	7 of 11	0 of 0	1 of 1	2 of 5	1 of 1	5 of 6

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Ariane Carnelossi vs. Na Liang

Round 1
This historic night topped off by a title tripleheader will begin in the lightest division in the company, as Carnelossi (12-2, 0-1 UFC) aims for her first UFC win against the debuting “Dragon Girl” Liang (15-4, 0-0 UFC). Whether Liang holds 13 wins or 15 on her ledger may be of some dispute, but she does bring a 100 percent finish rate into this contest, and referee James Folsom may have his work cut out for him early. There is no touch of gloves as the two fighters would prefer introduce one another with their fists, and with a huge pop from the crowd – remember, we are in Jacksonville, Fla., with a packed house -- we are now underway! The two women come out like a house on fire, going berserk with a wild striking flurry. Both women tag the other, and Liang is the one who gets the advantage of the position as she powers through and bullies the Brazilian to her canvas. Liang steps over to secure an arm-triangle choke as she sits in half guard, and Carnelossi kicks off and reverses the position. Liang drags her back down, but “Sorriso” powers up to her feet and tags Liang with a right hand. “Dragon Girl” does not let her off the hook, charging into a takedown attempt as she furiously throws hands. The strikes do enough to keep Carnelossi busy defending, so that Liang can hit a body lock takedown and throw the Brazilian on the canvas again. Carnelossi keeps her guard closed tight, and Liang lifts her up and slams her down hard. Carnelossi opens up and throws her legs up for an armbar, and although she cannot land it, she is able to sweep Liang and put her on her back. Liang threatens with an armbar of her own, and Carnelossi shrugs it off to start raining down strikes from on top. Liang catches an arm when Carnelossi is hammering her with shots, and she locks up an armbar. Carnelossi muscles her way through to break the grip, and Liang is able to turn her over and put the Brazilian on her back. Carnelossi rolls to her knees as she grabs a leg on Liang, and through sheer force of will, she lifts Liang in the air and slams her down. Liang rolls to her knees and gets clubbed in the side of the head, and Carnelossi circles around to take her back. Carnelossi attempts a rear-naked choke, but Liang wildly scrambles and bursts to her feet. Liang does not stay upright for long, as she nails Carnelossi with punches from on top. Carnelossi snags a triangle choke from her back, and she uses it to mount and put Liang on her back. Carnelossi lands serious strikes from above, and she clubs Liang repeatedly until the bell sounds. Liang survives, but she is extremely fatigued just five minutes in.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi

Round 2
The pace is nowhere near as insane to start off the second frame, as Liang lands a few strikes from a distance. When Carnelossi counters, Liang flips her foot up and slaps Carnelossi in the face. Carnelossi grabs hold of her foe and looks to take the fight down, but Liang is able to put her down. Carnelossi keeps a hook in and is able to retain back control, and she takes the back and hunts for a choke. Liang twists and turns to break the grip, but she falls to her back as Carnelossi climbs into guard and starts with hammerfists.
Carnelossi keeps smashing her growingly exhausted adversary with a barrage of hammerfists, and before long, Folsom intervenes as Liang is no longer able to intelligently defend herself.
Although the stoppage might seem premature to some, the defeated Liang is gasping for air and completely thrashed after that torrid affair. If this performance is any indication, we will be in for quite a night.

The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Na Liang R2 1:28 via TKO (Punches)

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

Big Brady picks Carnelossi to win by second-round KO. He notes Carnelossi's takedown defense is strong and she is aggressive, while Liang Na is one-dimensional, always going for takedowns and gassing out if she doesn't get a quick submission. He expects Carnelossi to stuff takedowns and eventually land a knockout after Liang Na tires.

Carnelossi by KO in round 2

"i'm going to take carnal lossy to stuff the takedowns... i see a carne lucy i'm going to say second round uh ko win for carlos"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

Cody picks Carnelossi, noting her strength and experience against tougher competition. He thinks Liang's grappling attempts will be neutralized by Carnelossi's physicality. He expects Carnelossi to win by decision or TKO.

"i like her in this spot again i know what they're trying to do and i think zoo wrong does come through and i think that whaley zhang does retain but as far as nalian goes"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

Daniel picks Ariane Carnelossi because she is a powerful striker who can bully Liang Na on the feet. He notes that Liang Na is a one-dimensional grappler who sells out for submissions, and Carnelossi's brown belt should help her avoid getting caught. He expects Carnelossi to keep the fight standing and possibly get a finish.

"i'm going to go with arianne carnolosi to win this fight"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Liang Na

I'm picking Liang Na with very little confidence. I think she'll get her grappling game going and possibly pull off a submission in the second or third round. Carnelossi is a brawler like John Lineker, swinging bombs, but Liang has never been knocked out and has been improving at the UFC Performance Institute. Carnelossi's takedown defense and submission game are questionable, so Liang's grappling could be the difference.

Liang by submission +450

"i got liang with very little confidence i think she'll get her grappling game going and possibly pull off a submission in the second or third round here"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

Paul picks Carnelossi, citing her physical strength and power. He notes Liang's weak competition and struggles against stronger opponents. He thinks Carnelossi will keep the fight standing and use her strength to overpower Liang. He expects Carnelossi to win by KO or decision.

"i think ariana crossing is too physically strong she'll be able to keep the fight standing when the fight is start to stay standing she'll be able to just muscle her up and beat her up a little bit"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi over Liang Na. He notes that Carnelossi has known about the matchup longer and is more proven, having kept up with Angela Hill before a cut stoppage. He thinks Liang Na is young and has potential but is taking the fight on short notice and has losses to lesser competition. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Carnelossi.

"i'm going to go with ariana canelosi here"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Angela Hill

TKO (doctor stoppage) R3 1:56 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Sep 21, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Angela Hill	0	72 of 186	38%	83 of 197	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:38
Ariane Carnelossi	0	92 of 184	50%	93 of 185	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:59

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Angela Hill	28 of 69	40%	32 of 73	0 of 1	0%	0:29
1	Ariane Carnelossi	37 of 68	54%	37 of 68	0 of 0	---	0:43
2	Angela Hill	31 of 76	40%	36 of 81	0 of 0	---	0:09
2	Ariane Carnelossi	39 of 85	45%	39 of 85	0 of 0	---	0:12
3	Angela Hill	13 of 41	31%	15 of 43	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Ariane Carnelossi	16 of 31	51%	17 of 32	0 of 0	---	0:04

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Angela Hill	72 of 186	38%	36 of 137	15 of 26	21 of 23	57 of 156	15 of 30	0 of 0
Ariane Carnelossi	92 of 184	50%	60 of 137	32 of 46	0 of 1	57 of 139	35 of 45	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Angela Hill	28 of 69	40%	13 of 47	8 of 14	7 of 8	17 of 49	11 of 20	0 of 0
1	Ariane Carnelossi	37 of 68	54%	22 of 47	15 of 21	0 of 0	17 of 46	20 of 22	0 of 0
2	Angela Hill	31 of 76	40%	14 of 54	5 of 9	12 of 13	28 of 69	3 of 7	0 of 0
2	Ariane Carnelossi	39 of 85	45%	24 of 64	15 of 20	0 of 1	26 of 68	13 of 17	0 of 0
3	Angela Hill	13 of 41	31%	9 of 36	2 of 3	2 of 2	12 of 38	1 of 3	0 of 0
3	Ariane Carnelossi	16 of 31	51%	14 of 26	2 of 5	0 of 0	14 of 25	2 of 6	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Angela Hill vs. Ariane Carnelossi

Round 1
We continue the theme of a UFC veteran welcoming a debutant to the Octagon as Hill (9-7, 4-7 UFC) faces the surging Carnelossi (12-1, 0-0 UFC) in the strawweight division. Our referee is Fernando Salas Navarro. Carnelossi advances immediately, and gets clipped a few times on the way in by Hill. The Brazilian comes in to clinch, and Hill reverses position while landing several solid knees to the body. They break, but not before Hill cracks her opponent with a sharp right elbow. Carnelossi charges forward again, but Hill is ready on the counter. Carnelossi drops in for a single leg takedown, but Hill defends it well and separates. The Brazilian keeps the pressure coming heavy, walking Hill down and backing her against the fence. Hill circles away, and lands a right hand, but Carnelossi eats it and walks through. A two-punch combination gets through from Hill, and as her corner calls for specific strikes, Hill complies and scores every one. Hill drops in a few hard knees in the clinch, and in the exchange Carnelossi begins to bleed from her forehead. As Carnelossi pushes in, Hill brings up a knee that catches the Brazilian on the chin, but Carnelossi is unfazed. Hill steps in and lands another knee, while avoiding the counter strikes, and then lifts one more up for good measure. Carnelossi slaps in a hard leg kick, and the two women trade hands standing in front of each other. Hill catches Carnelossi with an uppercut, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 2
Carnelossi opens up with a leg kick to begin the round, and seeing its success, she sinks one more. Hill swings with a left-right, and as Carnelossi pushes in, Hill is ready to respond with short knees. As they clinch, again Hill takes the advantage by scoring an elbow on the break. The Brazilian scores a few more leg kicks, and Hill switches stances briefly, and when she does, Carnelossi tags her. Hill wears it well, and circles away while picking her shots. Hill prepares to counter any of Carnelossi's offense with a check knee, and "Sorriso" cracks Hill with a loud body kick. The two trade leather, and some swelling begins to form on The Brazilian's forehead. Hill puts together a few punches, but Carnelossi throws hard and lands on Hill's chin. Carnelossi successfully gets off another low kick, and then while coming forward lands a right over the top. Hill tries for a superman punch, but Carnelossi is ready and throws another leg kick that makes Hill hop around for a second. Hill steps in for an elbow, but Carnelossi clips her with a left hand. The American leads with a knee, and Carnelossi is content to chase her down while loading up on her right hand. Clinched up once more, Hill lands several more knees to the body, and as time expires she leaps in the air and kicks Carnelossi in the midsection.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 3
Carnelossi charges forward to begin the final round, and Hill counters her with a right hand and left knee. The Brazilian stalks down Hill, and chains together a several-punch combination but takes a few knees to the body for her trouble. Hill waits for Carnelossi to come in, and times a powerful right elbow that Carnelossi shrugs off. Hill digs with a left to the body, and Carnelossi tags her with a few punches before clinching up. Hill spins out and slices the Brazilian with a huge elbow that splits her forehead open. The cut, which is placed directly above Carnelossi's left eyebrow and is about an inch wide, immediately begins pouring blood. Navarro calls in the doctor, who remarks the cut is too big and calls it, so the fight is over. Hill records the TKO victory, earning her first stoppage win inside the Octagon.

The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Ariane Carnelossi R3 1:56 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)?

Expert Picks (7)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Talita Alencar

"Ariane Carnelossi is going to lose this fight. I don't know if I'm going to spend nine grand on Talita Alencar though."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Talita Alencar

second round submission

"I like Allen Carr. Give me Allen Carr to get takedowns and potentially get a submission. I'll say second round submission for Toita Allen Carr."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Talita Alencar

Alencar opened at -500, now -230; Carnelossi opened at +385, now +195.

"I agree that carnalossi is just very strong but also very stiff and awkward everywhere it seems."

MMA Vivisection

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Talita Alencar

Talita Alencar wins by decision

"I got Toita Alan Carr in this one."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

surprised by the odds

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Ariane Carnelossi

"I'm going to go with Ariane Carnelossi. The shoulders are a dead giveaway and when I'm not sure, I'm going to go with this."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Talita Alencar

Alencar opened at -500, now -230; Carnelossi opened at +385, now +195.

"I'm just gonna take alan car. Carnalossi is strong but stands really stiff, head hunts like crazy, so she's really easy to take off of her feet."

MMA Vivisection

Comments (1)

brian 7 months ago

talita fought hard for her green card. Carna legs kicks were working and Alencar could have been stopped. Had the choke in the end of rd2, bell save ariane. Ariane was poor getting up off her back. Ariane face gets cut easy. Fights going foward into the fire, nearly got ko'd

Talita Alencar

Ariane Carnelossi

Career Averages - Talita Alencar

Career Averages - Ariane Carnelossi

Talita Alencar

Ariane Carnelossi

Talita Alencar - Fight History

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Ariane Carnelossi - Fight History

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