vs
-310 +265
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025 · Catchweight (130 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 7"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Allan Nascimento
3.06 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
2.53 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.26 TD Avg
23.0% TD Acc.
37.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Cody Durden
3.34 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
4.19 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
3.89 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Allan Nascimento
Moneyline
FanDuel -310
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1150
Submission
BetMGM +150
Decision
FanDuel +220
Cody Durden
Moneyline
Caesars +265
KO/TKO
BetRivers +850
Submission
BetRivers +2200
Decision
BetRivers +510
Allan Nascimento - Fight History
SCHED vs Mitch Raposo
CANCEL vs Mitch Raposo
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mitch Raposo

Angelo picks Mitch Raposo as an underdog, noting that Nascimento's striking looked poor in his last fight and that Raposo's striking advantage should prevail if he avoids the ground. He compares the matchup favorably to Raposo's previous win over a wrestler, as Nascimento is more BJJ-oriented.

"I'm going to take a shot at the dog. So, Mitch is going to be the pick and as long as Mitch stays safe and doesn't end up on the ground, I think he dominates the striking here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mitch Raposo

Big Brady picks Mitch Raposo as an underdog, citing his solid wrestling and improved grappling. He notes Raposo's ability to get up from takedowns, as shown against Murzakanov. Brady thinks if Nascimento doesn't get a submission, the fight becomes close, and Raposo's youth and power could edge a split decision. He expects a stinker of a fight.

split decision
"Give me the dog in Mitch Raposo and give me Mitch Raposo by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Cody picks Allan Nascimento, citing his dangerous submission game. He notes that Raposo has improved but Nascimento's grappling is a major threat. He is wary of betting against Nascimento's X-factor.

"Nastos is the pick for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Connor picks Nascimento because he is a fun, good fighter who stays busy on the feet and has a reactive submission game that can catch opponents who close distance recklessly. He notes that Raposo is a wrestle-boxer still figuring out UFC pace, and Nascimento's ability to annoy opponents into mistakes should be too much for him.

Nascimento opened at -350, now -185; Raposo opened at +285, now +160; Connor notes the line movement is unusual but not suspicious
"I will take Nascimento."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Daniel acknowledges Raposo's decent hands but believes Nascimento's ground game is devastating and opportunistic. He thinks if Nascimento gets on top or dangles off the neck, the fight ends quickly. He picks Nascimento to win.

"I'm going to pick Alan Nasimeto to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mitch Raposo

James picks Mitch Raposo as a big underdog, believing his wrestling and striking will neutralize Nascimento's grappling. He thinks Raposo can keep the fight on the feet and outpoint Nascimento, who has poor wrestling and cardio issues.

"I'm going to pick Mitch Raposo here as a massive underdog to come out there and hugely upset Alan Nasimento."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mitch Raposo

The host likes Raposo to replicate his performance against Askarov, using stick-and-move, calf kicks, and countering Nascimento when he crashes the pocket. He believes Raposo's confidence is high and his defensive grappling will keep him safe from submissions. He predicts a decision win, and mentions a possible shot on round three as Nascimento slows.

round three prop
"I like Repos here. It's been 4 and 1/2 years since he's been submitted... confidence under his feet, full training camp, this is a very winnable fight for Repos. So, I'm going to go with the American to get his …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mitch Raposo

Paul picks Mitch Raposo, citing his wrestling and speed advantage. He notes that Nascimento has poor offensive wrestling and low volume striking. He believes Raposo can keep the fight standing and win rounds.

"I actually did take Metropos. I feel like that when you talk about style clashes, Mitch has the style to present Nasimono with a ton of problems."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Nascimento has a trustworthy reactive submission game and can tap opponents who dive into his guard. He points out that Raposo has been scraping by in the UFC and that Nascimento's pressure should force him into big mistakes. He also mentions that Nascimento's fight with Tajiro Lanbokov was close, showing his level.

Nascimento opened at -350, now -185; Raposo opened at +285, now +160
"I will take Nascimento."
WIN vs Cody Durden
Submission R2 3:13 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Allan Nascimento 0 52 of 115 45% 52 of 115 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:21
Cody Durden 0 57 of 128 44% 57 of 128 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Allan Nascimento 0 26 of 58 44% 26 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cody Durden 0 36 of 73 49% 36 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:03
2 Allan Nascimento 0 26 of 57 45% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:21
Cody Durden 0 21 of 55 38% 21 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Allan Nascimento 52 of 115 45% 19 of 69 7 of 17 26 of 29 51 of 114 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cody Durden 57 of 128 44% 47 of 112 5 of 9 5 of 7 57 of 128 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Allan Nascimento 26 of 58 44% 7 of 31 3 of 9 16 of 18 25 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cody Durden 36 of 73 49% 28 of 61 5 of 8 3 of 4 36 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Allan Nascimento 26 of 57 45% 12 of 38 4 of 8 10 of 11 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Durden 21 of 55 38% 19 of 51 0 of 1 2 of 3 21 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Durden vs. Allan Nascimento
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nascimento (-260); Durden (+210)

Round 1
Due to Durden (17-8-1, 6-6-1 UFC) stepping in to replace Rafael Estevam on short notice, he has agreed to face “Puro Osso” Nascimento (21-6, 3-1 UFC) at a catchweight of 130 pounds. This wrestler vs. grappler affair will be officiated by referee Mark Smith, who claps the athletes in as they touch gloves to signal their relief in being able to fight and get paid this weekend.
Durden bounces up and down on his heels, possibly presenting looks for takedowns, but then springs forward and drills the Brazilian with an overhand right. Durden pops Nascimento with a jab, and he smacks the front leg with his shin. Durden evades a kick and hurls an overhand right, and he pushes out a front kick that is caught and forces him to the mat. Durden lets him back up and puts a jab right in the Brazilian’s face. Nascimento hammers the lead calf with a kick, and a second puts Durden on notice. Durden races ahead throwing punches, and Nascimento slips to the side and beats him with another thudding kick. He scores one more when Durden comes his direction, and Durden still crashes the pocket and checks Nascimento’s chin with a left hand on the cheek. The jabs from Durden are marking up Nascimento’s cheek, and he is not far from splitting it open with sheer volume.
Nascimento keeps his back to the cage and tosses out kicks, and he sharply counters Durden with a right hand and plants one more calf kick for good measure. Durden punches through the guar to reach the taller Brazilian, and he catches him with a right hook and makes Nascimento double over. Nascimento reels and backs away, and Durden knocks him back to the wall with an overhand right. Nascimento goes back after his leg kick, and Durden punches him in the guts to back him away again. Nascimento checks a kick and lets his hands go, and his head kick does reach the top of the head. Durden kicks and shoots for a takedown, and Nascimento stands him up and skirts away from the offense he anticipates. Durden still marches him down, his leg lump and welted from the kicks, so that he can put his hands on Nascimento’s jaw. They trash one another with heavy leg kicks, and Nascimento stings Durden and forces him to shoot on him. Nascimento stands back to let it fly by him, and the horn sounds to end what became a close round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 2
Durden starts out the round as aggressive as ever, and he scores on the Brazilian early. Nascimento slows him down with a steady diet of calf kicks, and his right hands continue to find their home while Durden rushes after him. They clash shins when kicking at the same time, and then bang their heads together when coming towards one another. Nascimento backs off, with Smith telling them to be careful, and he rushes in behind a knee. Durden shakes it off and responds with a plethora of punches, only slowing when Nascimento tries to introduce his shin to the Georgia native’s chin. Nascimento whiffs on a looping left hand, and he has a leg kick checked. Nascimento stands Durden up with a right hand, and he gets his head snapped back in the counter. Nascimento pounds on the front leg, and he eats three punches down the middle like they are nothing. Durden gets clipped with a left hand, constantly pressing forward even when under fire. Nascimento rattles him with a long one-two, wrapping his hand around the back of the neck but not using it for a takedown.
Both met let their hands go, and Nascimento puts Durden down with a counter right hand.
Durden ducks to shoot, and he finds himself immediate ensnared in an anaconda choke. Nascimento has the submission virtually completed the moment Durden hits his knees, in what may be the worst choice that “Custom Made” could have made. Durden turns to his back, but there is no way out, so he has to give up.
Durden taps until Smith intervenes, and Nascimento has now recorded 15 submissions in his 22 pro wins. He asks for a ranked opponent, specifically calling out Steve Erceg for his next outing.

The Official Result
Allan Nascimento def. Cody Durden R2 3:13 via Submission (Anaconda Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Angelo picks Allan Nascimento, but is hesitant. He notes Nascimento's jiu-jitsu is excellent but his takedowns are poor, so he relies on being taken down to sweep. He thinks Cody Durden's wrestling and cardio have declined, and he gets tired. However, he worries that if Durden doesn't wrestle, Nascimento won't finish on the feet, leading to a low-scoring fight. He may avoid it in DFS.

"I think Alan wins this fight. I think Alan could potentially finish this new version of Cody Durden, but I'm... probably going to avoid it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Big Brady picks Allan Nascimento, noting Cody Durden is on short notice, 34 years old, and has taken a ton of damage in recent fights. He highlights Nascimento's size, length, and excellent grappling. He believes once the fight hits the ground, Nascimento will have a huge advantage and predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission, minus 300 favorite
"I like Nasnto here. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Connor also picks Nascimento, noting that Durden is super vulnerable on defense and aggressive to a fault. He thinks Nascimento's submission game is dangerous enough to catch Durden, but he wouldn't be surprised if Durden rides out a win on top. He mentions Durden's bigger signature wins but still leans Nascimento.

"I think I'll take Nascimento and one thing I do know about him is that he's durable."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Nascimento's BJJ will get Durden into bad spots and he will eventually pull off a submission. The host's favorite spot is the under 2.5 rounds at even money.

under 2.5 rounds at even money
"His BJJ should help him get Duran into some bad spots and from there I expect Nasameto to eventually pull off a submission. Although my favorite spot in this fight would probably be the under two and a half at …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

The MMA Guru picks Allan Nascimento, noting his size advantage at catchweight and superior grappling. He compares Nascimento's dominant grappling against Jafel Filho to Cody Durden's struggles against Jake Hadley. He worries about Durden taking the fight on short notice and predicts Nascimento wins by decision or submission in the second or third round.

submission in the second or third round
"I'm going to say that Allan Nascimento gets this one done. Another thing to mention here as well, Allan Nascimento out-grappled Jafel Filho round after round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Zane picks Nascimento to catch a submission, noting that Durden sells out so hard on offense that he makes himself vulnerable to submissions. He acknowledges that if Nascimento doesn't submit him, Durden could grind out a win. He mentions Nascimento's durability and solid submission game.

submission
"I'm thinking to take Nascimento to catch sub but like you know if he doesn't this could be a very scrappy hard fought fight."
CANCEL vs Rafael Estevam
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Lucrative James mentions this fight in the intro as a grapplers' delight but does not provide a breakdown or pick for it. He does not discuss the matchup in detail later in the transcript.

"We also have an absolute grapplers delight at flyweight. We have Alan Nasamento taking on Raphael Estan."
WIN vs Jafel Filho
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jafel Filho 0 14 of 30 46% 40 of 63 4 of 7 57% 1 0 6:20
Allan Nascimento 0 12 of 24 50% 30 of 58 1 of 6 16% 1 2 7:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jafel Filho 0 11 of 20 55% 22 of 37 2 of 4 50% 1 0 4:07
Allan Nascimento 0 4 of 9 44% 7 of 12 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:04
2 Jafel Filho 0 1 of 4 25% 13 of 17 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:11
Allan Nascimento 0 6 of 9 66% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:35
3 Jafel Filho 0 2 of 6 33% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Allan Nascimento 0 2 of 6 33% 7 of 22 1 of 3 33% 1 1 3:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jafel Filho 14 of 30 46% 7 of 20 7 of 9 0 of 1 6 of 20 6 of 8 2 of 2
Allan Nascimento 12 of 24 50% 3 of 12 4 of 4 5 of 8 9 of 19 1 of 1 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jafel Filho 11 of 20 55% 6 of 12 5 of 7 0 of 1 4 of 11 5 of 7 2 of 2
Allan Nascimento 4 of 9 44% 0 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 5 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jafel Filho 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
Allan Nascimento 6 of 9 66% 2 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 4
3 Jafel Filho 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Allan Nascimento 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jafel Filho vs. Allan Nascimento (127.5: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nascimento (-155), Filho (+130)

Round 1
To say it has been a rough road for Nascimento (20-6, 2-1 UFC) in the UFC thus far is understatement of the year. With canceled fights on either side of the equation, the Chute Boxe Diego Lima product has only fought three times since making his UFC debut in 2021. Before he faces Filho (16-3, 2-1 UFC), he will give his fellow countryman 20% of his purse for missing the flyweight cap by a pound and a half. When the dust settles, one of these two will find their two-fight win streak fall by the wayside. Referee Chris Tognoni is prepped and ready for whoever that may be, and he bears witness to a glove touch to begin the melee. Filho takes the center of the cage, with Nascimento circling around him offering jabs and a slapping calf kick. Filho dodges a second kick and whiffs on one of his own, and he walks through a low kick to load up on a right hand. Nascimento sticks and moves with kicks, and he switches up with a body kick from the other limb. Filho crashes the pocket to slow the heavier fighter down, kneeing him in the stomach and cup before trying to throw him to the mat. Nascimento keeps his balance but is absorbing knees to the midsection, with Filho quickly using a knee to set up a trip a couple times to no avail. Filho grabs the fence to keep himself upright when Nascimento looks for his own takedown, and he uses momentum to spin Nascimento to the ground. Filho steps into full mount as soon as he claims top position, and he looks for an arm-triangle choke but cannot get it before Nascimento scrambles madly to get to his feet. Filho mat returns him fairly quickly, and he gets hold of a body lock and starts fishing for a rear-naked choke. Filho flattens his foe out and starts driving down right hands while Nascimento scrambles, posturing up to either land a strike or hunt for another choke. When he puts Nascimento on his back again, Filho quickly sets up an arm-triangle choke. Nascimento turns the proper direction to thwart the choke, and he sits up into a guillotine choke. Filho has the mounted guillotine locked up tight with one arm, and Nascimento kicks and bucks with all his might to keep himself in the fight. Filho lets go right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Filho
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Filho
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Filho

Round 2
The countrymen touch gloves, and Filho is again the aggressor in the center of the cage pushing forward. He slugs Nascimento in the chops and changes levels for a takedown, only for the taller man to shut him down on his first effort. Nascimento jumps for a knee, and Filho thanks him for this by slinging him to the mat. Nascimento returns to his feet fairly quickly, with Filho pressing heavily on his side and back. Nascimento grabs the fence a few times, keeping himself from being taken down because of it. As soon as he releases it, Filho throws him to the mat and starts searching for a short choke. Nascimento slides him out the back and flips Filho over, where he moves to side control and pushes his chest flat on top of Filho’s. Nascimento squeezes on Filho’s head with his shoulder, and he flirts with an arm-triangle choke while Filho is boxing his ears. Nascimento steps over to try to mount his foe, and when he does not get it, he pursues the arm-triangle. With Filho wise to it, Nascimento is bucked back to half guard. Nascimento stays as heavy as possible, and he grips Filho’s left arm in pursuit of some armlock that does not come together. Filho gets to a knee, and Nascimento tackles him back down to the ground. Filho reasserts butterfly hooks until Nascimento slashes him with an elbow that allows him to step back into half guard. Nascimento drills his man with another nasty elbow, and Filho defends most additional efforts. One or two more elbows land from Nascimento until the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento

Round 3
The two hug it out to open the last round, and it most likely is all up for grabs here. Filho leads the dance once more, sticking Nascimento first with a long left hand and a right to follow. Nascimento backs him off with a body kick, and Filho responds with a left to the liver and stonewalls Nascimento who is after a takedown. Filho turns the effort against him, dragging Nascimento to the mat and sneaking around to take his back. “Pastor” wraps up his man in an awkward way, stretching Nascimento’s arms over his head while torqueing his midsection. There is no submission to be had here, and he slowly finds himself sliding off the back again. Nascimento flips him over with a burst of energy, and he asserts top position and hunts for an arm-triangle choke. Filho’s mad scrambles keep him safe from getting submitted, sitting up even with Nascimento on his back with an arm draped around his shoulder. Filho is warned for grabbing the inside of his foe’s glove to defend the submission, and Nascimento wriggles his arm and looks for a neck crank when there is no rear-naked choke. Nascimento commits to it, and Filho smartly hand-fights to relieve the pressure. Nascimento slugs Filho in the side of the head a few times to open up another submission possibility, and he remains on top when Filho flails his legs wildly. Nascimento controls from behind even as Filho stands up, and he wraps a leg around Filho’s in hopes of dragging him back down. Filho spins around, is warned for fence grabs, and is tripped down to the canvas. Nascimento takes his back once more with hooks in, and secures a body triangle and a neck crank at the same time. Filho stays calm in the face of submission efforts and lets Nascimento tire himself out trying. Nascimento hacks with elbows to the top of Filho’s head and also to the back of his head, with fouls uncalled on every side in this grappling match. The fight ends with Nascimento hanging on from behind.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (29-28 Nascimento)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (29-28 Nascimento)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (29-28 Nascimento)

The Official Result
Allan Nascimento def. Jafel Filho via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

Angelo picks Jafel Filho, noting his fast-paced style, solid takedown defense, and good fight IQ. He trusts Filho to be smart with aggression, unlike the unknown Gustafsson. He is concerned about Filho's lack of decision wins and Nascimento's durability (never finished), but believes Filho can win a decision if needed.

Watches odds hoping for a plus price on Filho.
"Joff is going to be the pick. We're going to watch these odds, see if we can get even better than these minus 115 we have now."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Big Brady expects a grappling-heavy fight and picks Allan Nascimento as the better grappler, noting he has never been submitted while Jafel Filho has been submitted twice. He believes Nascimento will eventually catch Filho in a submission later in the fight as Filho slows down. He predicts a third-round submission.

third round submission
"I think this fight's going to play out on the ground. I think eventually Nasimento is going to catch Filio in something probably later in the fight when Filio starts to slow down a little bit."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

Matt leans with Jafel Filho at plus money. He believes Filho has good enough submission defense to neutralize Nascimento's grappling and is the better striker. Filho's calf kicks could slow Nascimento's takedown attempts. Matt expects Filho to win by decision, noting that Nascimento's losses have all come by decision.

Filho by decision +470, Filho by KO +470, Nascimento by decision +145, Nascimento by submission +470
"At plus 130 it's hard to overlook the positives that uh Fio brings into this matchup and so I'm going to have to lean with him to win this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

The MMA Guru picks Jafel Filho as an underdog, citing his sharper striking, activity, and youth. He notes Filho's submission attempts are more varied (armbars, leg locks) while Nascimento relies on rear-naked chokes. He also highlights Nascimento's long layoff and multiple fight cancellations as concerns.

"I'm going with Jafel Filho here against Alan Nascimen... I think Jfel Filho is a little sharper on the feet than Alan Nasimento is."
Submission R1 3:16 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Carlos Hernandez vs. Allan Nascimento
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nascimento (-410), Hernandez (+330)

Round 1
Moving back to flyweights, Brazilian submission artist Nascimento (19-6, 1-1 UFC) will try to get things done against fellow grappler Hernandez (8-1, 1-0 UFC) in what could be a fun battle on the ground. The two combine for 17 submissions across their 27 career wins, while neither man has ever been finished. Referee Jason Herzog is ready for wherever the fight may take the three of them, and he sits back as the two competitors clap hands. Nascimento advances first, feinting and faking to draw immediate reactions. Hernandez does not bite on anything, and they paw at one another with low kicks and jabs. Nascimento goes up top with a kick that is blocked, and he slides out of the way from a straight right hand. Nascimento connects with a front kick that splits the guard, shaking Hernandez up, and this allows him to punch his way into a takedown try. In an unorthodox fashion, Nascimento throws Hernandez down to his knees, and Hernandez immediately fights his way back up. The subsequent mat return from Nascimento succeeds when he drags the American down from behind, and he cinches up a body triangle in a hurry. Hernandez smartly fights the hands and turns to the proper side to break up the body lock, and Nascimento switches his leg grip as he hunts for a sneaky choke. Hernandez walks off the wall and turns all the way to belly down, and
this is the worst possible move for him as Nascimento gets the leverage to sink in the rear-naked choke. Hernandez stands up with Nascimento on his back, and “Puro Osso” still has the choke under the chin as he squeezes with all his might. Switching his grip to palm-to-palm, it is just a matter of time at this point. Hernandez grimaces and squirms, but there is nothing more he can do, and he taps out.
As it turned out, something did have to give, as Hernandez has now been finished for the first time as a pro.

The Official Result
Allan Nascimento def. Carlos Hernandez R1 3:16 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
WIN vs Jake Hadley
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Allan Nascimento 0 8 of 29 27% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 1 1 3:50
Jake Hadley 0 19 of 52 36% 36 of 69 2 of 4 50% 0 3 9:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Allan Nascimento 0 3 of 14 21% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:23
Jake Hadley 0 4 of 11 36% 14 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:59
2 Allan Nascimento 0 2 of 5 40% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Jake Hadley 0 9 of 21 42% 14 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:04
3 Allan Nascimento 0 3 of 10 30% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:02
Jake Hadley 0 6 of 20 30% 8 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 2 2:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Allan Nascimento 8 of 29 27% 5 of 25 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 20 1 of 1 4 of 8
Jake Hadley 19 of 52 36% 7 of 32 8 of 16 4 of 4 10 of 27 1 of 2 8 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Allan Nascimento 3 of 14 21% 1 of 11 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 5
Jake Hadley 4 of 11 36% 1 of 6 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 2
2 Allan Nascimento 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jake Hadley 9 of 21 42% 3 of 11 5 of 9 1 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 2 4 of 9
3 Allan Nascimento 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jake Hadley 6 of 20 30% 3 of 15 2 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 12
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jake Hadley vs. Allan Nascimento
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hadley (-210), Nascimento (+175)

Round 1
Undefeated Brit prospect Hadley makes his debut against “Puro Osso,” with referee Mike Beltran set to oversee the proceedings. The flyweights begin exchanging right away, with Hadley in southpaw to Nascimento’s orthodox stance. Nascimento catches a kick and runs Hadley to the canvas. Hadley immediately uses an omoplata to sweep to top position, setting up in the Brazilian’s guard. He moves to half guard, pins Nascimento’s right arm and moves to the back. Nascimento keeps hold of Hadley’s leg, preventing him from completing the back take, then threatens with a heel hook before sweeping to top position. Hadley closes up his guard, then applies a body triangle from the bottom. With a minute left, it’s still Nascimento on top, throwing short shoulder strikes and driving Hadley toward the fence. Nascimento tries to pass Hadley’s guard, but time expires before he can.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento

Round 2
Hadley rushes forward to open the round and is met by a flying knee from Nascimento. A moment later, Nascimento changes levels and intercepts the advancing Hadley with a nice double-leg. Hadley immediately looks to use rubber guard, but Nascimento extracts his arms and “White Kong” changes to conventional guard. Two minutes into the round, the Brazilian is still in top position, where he advances to half guard. Hadley is active on the bottom, shifting his hips and looking for a chance to escape or sweep. Hadley uses feet on hips to kick Nascimento off of him, but Nascimento dives right back into his guard. Under a minute left, and Hadley stands up against the fence. They clinch there, with Nascimento’s back against the cage. Hadley throws a couple of short knees before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento

Round 3
The flyweights touch gloves to open the final round. Hadley scores with an overhand left. A moment later, Hadley grabs a standing guillotine choke. He cranks it hard, and though he loses the choke, he uses it to drive Nascimento down to the mat. Hadley pounces and ends up with a slightly out-of-position brabo choke. He readjusts and moves to the back, but Nascimento shrugs him off, spins and lands on top. Nascimento is in loose half-guard and working for a D’Arce choke. Nascimento loses the choke but spins to the back. Hadley scrambles away and ends up on his back with the Brazilian standing over him. Hadley gets up to his knees and Nascimento grabs a front headlock. He loses the headlock and Hadley takes him back down. Hadley tries for a guillotine choke, but gets swept for his trouble. Under 30 seconds left, Nascimento is on top. The final horn sounds on 15 minutes of frenetic grappling.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (30-27 Nascimento)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (30-27 Nascimento)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (30-27 Nascimento)

The Official Result
Allan Nascimento def. Jake Hadley via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Cody picks Nascimento as a live underdog. He notes Nascimento is tricky off his back, has good cardio, and keeps fights close. He mentions Hadley missed weight, has attitude issues, and is still adjusting to North America. He thinks the plus money is worth a shot.

"i'm gonna agree with you i think that this is a decent underdog spot right you gotta take another dog somewhere and i think nasa meno's a guy that is very tricky if this ends up being a decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Paul also picks Nascimento, calling it a dogger pass. He notes Nascimento is competitive, has good striking volume, and attacks non-stop off his back. He thinks Hadley is talented but has red flags like missing weight and rubbing matchmakers the wrong way. He likes the plus money.

"i think this is a decent underdog spot right you gotta take another dog somewhere and i think nasa meno's a guy that is very tricky"
LOSS vs Tagir Ulanbekov
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tagir Ulanbekov 0 18 of 40 45% 62 of 87 4 of 5 80% 1 1 12:04
Allan Nascimento 0 25 of 37 67% 74 of 86 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tagir Ulanbekov 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 19 1 of 2 50% 1 1 3:09
Allan Nascimento 0 10 of 17 58% 11 of 18 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:16
2 Tagir Ulanbekov 0 4 of 10 40% 26 of 33 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:07
Allan Nascimento 0 12 of 15 80% 32 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Tagir Ulanbekov 0 9 of 12 75% 31 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:48
Allan Nascimento 0 3 of 5 60% 31 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tagir Ulanbekov 18 of 40 45% 16 of 37 1 of 1 1 of 2 8 of 26 0 of 0 10 of 14
Allan Nascimento 25 of 37 67% 13 of 24 2 of 3 10 of 10 14 of 25 1 of 2 10 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tagir Ulanbekov 5 of 18 27% 3 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 2
Allan Nascimento 10 of 17 58% 3 of 9 1 of 2 6 of 6 8 of 14 0 of 1 2 of 2
2 Tagir Ulanbekov 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Allan Nascimento 12 of 15 80% 8 of 11 1 of 1 3 of 3 5 of 8 1 of 1 6 of 6
3 Tagir Ulanbekov 9 of 12 75% 9 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 12
Allan Nascimento 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Allan Nascimento vs. Tagir Ulanbekov

Round 1
Good evening, Abu Dhabi, and good morning, fight fans! UFC 267 is upon us at the island, with 14 huge fights bucking the recent trend of no rankings relevance by putting on a barrage of battles with immediate divisional implications for most. We kick things off in the flyweight division in the first of eight matchups pitting Russia against the world, commencing with Dagestan’s Ulanbekov (13-1, 1-0 UFC) against the debuting Brazilian Nascimento (18-5, 0-0 UFC). The gloves get touched in front of referee Dan Movahedi, and let the early morning violence begin! Ulanbekov takes the center of the cage and has his lead leg kicked early. Ulanbekov tries to counter the Brazilian over the top, but Nascimento slips the strike and lands with a few more low kicks. Mixing things up, Nascimento throws out a front kick that collides with the chest and forces Ulanbekov to exhale sharply. Ulanbekov times a leg kick of his own to surprise Nascimento, and he pulls back to ding Nascimento with a right hand on the way out. Ulanbekov leaps in the air with a knee, and Nascimento grabs hold of him and falls on his back from a body lock to drag Ulanbekov into his guard. The Brazilian throws his legs up for a triangle, and although he cannot set it up fully, he does use it to sweep his opponent and put him on his back. Nascimento does not keep his foe grounded for long, as they both walk together up the wall in a tight clinch. A trip from Ulanbekov allows him to plant Nascimento down on the ground again, but Nascimento is quick to defend with a leglock to force Ulanbekov to protect himself. A scramble ensues, and Ulanbekov latches on to a guillotine choke that is incredibly tight. The Brazilian does not panic, instead slowly and miraculously working his way out of the dangerous position even after Ulanbekov mounts him. Although he winds up on his back, Nascimento does escape the submission and stays busy on his back with additional submission setups. Ulanbekov remains in half guard, only to have to fight off a kimura sweep attempt from his opponent. Ulanbekov steps over to free his arm, and the round ends with an armbar attempt from Nascimento.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov

Round 2
Both hands get touched to start off the second round of this fun flyweight fight. Ulanbekov backs off to establish his jab in the early stages of the round, but Nascimento crashes in repeatedly to try to land clubbing power punches. Ulanbekov keeps his opponent at bay long enough to dart in low, and a double leg by Nascimento’s ankles drops the Brazilian to his knees. Nascimento fights his way back to his feet, and after they stall out, Movahedi warns them to keep going. This prompts Ulanbekov to drop low for a single, and although he pulls Nascimento’s leg out beneath him, Nascimento isolates Ulanbekov’s right arm with a kimura trap. Nascimento continues to torque the arm, and he threatens briefly with a triangle off his back as well to turn this armlock into something successful. The Russian does not appear remotely concerned, and he wrenches his arm free from the two-on-one grip while Nascimento’s guard closes around his midsection. Trying to stay busy, a few short elbows get off from Nascimento, who is find himself getting grinded out by the gritty grappler. Nascimento turns his high guard into a triangle try, but that too falls short when Ulanbekov pushes his legs to the side. This opening allows Nascimento to slash at his opponent with unexpectedly heavy elbows, and the looming question may be whether Ulanbekov is winning this lengthy exchange simply by being on top. As Ulanbekov turns to take a better position, Nascimento snatches an armbar, and when there is no tap to be found, he elbows Ulanbekov on the side of the head until and after the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento

Round 3
The flyweights hug it out to start the last round in a competitive battle, and Ulanbekov surges out of his corner to hit a takedown. Nascimento is instantly ready with a kimura sweep, and he turns this into a triangle choke to keep Ulanbekov honest. Like all the previous submission attempts and setups, Ulanbekov pays it little mind and calmly breaks the grip to take comfortable top position. The activity level seems to favor Nascimento at this point, even on his back, as he is constantly throwing his legs up for subs or landing short strikes. The Brazilian’s high guard continues to make Ulanbekov cautious of passing to a better position, although Ulanbekov does work his way over to half guard without exposing himself to possible harm. The Russian grinds his elbow on his opponent’s face, and Movahedi tells them to keep going. Ulanbekov answers the call for action by scoring a solid single elbow that makes Nascimento’s head bounce off the canvas. Ulanbekov clings to Nascimento like a problematic ex, not letting “Puro Osso” get any space to maneuver or finagle any savvy submissions like before. Nascimento rolls to his side, and he is quick to tie up a kimura that he turns to an armbar. Ulanbekov stands up to get a better position, and Nascimento grabs his wrist when he lowers himself into the guard so that he can get hold of a partial armbar. Nascimento continues to kick his legs when Ulanbekov gets out of the submission move, and he stays active while Ulanbekov lands a few partial strikes to end what could be a very, very closely scored matchup.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Ulanbekov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Ulanbekov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Ulanbekov)

The Official Result
Tagir Ulanbekov def. Allan Nascimento via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

Big Brady picks Tagir Ulanbekov to win by decision. He notes that Ulanbekov's wrestling is his bread and butter, with phenomenal control time, and he expects Ulanbekov to take Nascimento down at will. He acknowledges Nascimento is solid but thinks Ulanbekov's wrestling will be the difference, leading to a comfortable decision. He mentions the line of -350 seems a bit off but still picks Ulanbekov.

Ulanbekov by decision
"I think the gear is just going to take him down rinse and repeat anyway a pretty comfortable decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

Cody is hesitant but leans Ulanbekov, noting his excellent wrestling and Dagestani pedigree. However, he acknowledges Ulanbekov looked bad against Bruno Silva and has had many pullouts. He thinks Ulanbekov should win but suggests live betting Nascimento if Ulanbekov gasses. He calls Ulanbekov a potential 'apple pie [__]'.

"i got to go to gear but honestly one way to approach this if you're up at 10 30 in the morning is it could be a good live betting spot"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

Daniel slightly leans with Tagir Ulanbekov, but views it as a pass due to the high price. He notes Ulanbekov has been underwhelming and questions his performances. Daniel acknowledges Nascimento's scrambling ability and thinks the fight could be close. He expects Ulanbekov to win a close decision, especially in Abu Dhabi.

"i slightly lean on beckov i just for a guy that doesn't really put the stamp on things i ain't laying no minus 370"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

Ulanbekov is the better wrestler and scrambles well, likely accruing top control time. Nascimento is a jiu-jitsu guy but Ulanbekov should reverse bad positions. However, the -350 price is too steep until Ulanbekov proves himself in the UFC.

Ulanbekov by decision at +110 is a potential play.
"I do lean ulembakov but it's a little bit difficult to you know pull that trigger at minus 350 on him until we see him truly get comfortable inside the yacht gun."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul passes, citing Ulanbekov's lack of physicality and poor performance against Bruno Silva. He thinks Ulanbekov is a potential 'apple pie [__]' and doesn't want to lay -400. He sees Nascimento as a live dog but doesn't commit.

"straight up pass for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

The MMA Guru picks Tagir Ulanbekov over Allan Nascimento. He notes that Ulanbekov has good pressure and cardio, and expects him to take over in later rounds after Nascimento fades. He sees a similar fight to Ulanbekov's bout with Bruno Silva, where Ulanbekov won by pressuring and winning exchanges. He gives the first round to Nascimento due to his early explosiveness and submission threat, but believes Ulanbekov will win rounds two and three for a 29-28 decision.

"i'm going to give the first round to alan nascamento here because he's very dangerous early but as the rounds go on i'm going to go to guillermo and bekov"
Cody Durden - Fight History
SCHED vs Ode' Osbourne
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
WIN vs Jafel Filho
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Apr 25, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jafel Filho 0 23 of 63 36% 50 of 93 2 of 3 66% 0 1 3:08
Cody Durden 0 34 of 72 47% 91 of 136 5 of 5 100% 1 0 5:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jafel Filho 0 3 of 12 25% 9 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:00
Cody Durden 0 11 of 23 47% 36 of 50 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:20
2 Jafel Filho 0 8 of 28 28% 17 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Cody Durden 0 15 of 34 44% 21 of 41 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:37
3 Jafel Filho 0 12 of 23 52% 24 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Cody Durden 0 8 of 15 53% 34 of 45 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jafel Filho 23 of 63 36% 10 of 44 7 of 13 6 of 6 16 of 54 7 of 9 0 of 0
Cody Durden 34 of 72 47% 21 of 54 4 of 6 9 of 12 24 of 61 3 of 4 7 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jafel Filho 3 of 12 25% 1 of 7 1 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cody Durden 11 of 23 47% 8 of 18 2 of 3 1 of 2 3 of 14 2 of 3 6 of 6
2 Jafel Filho 8 of 28 28% 2 of 19 2 of 5 4 of 4 7 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cody Durden 15 of 34 44% 6 of 24 1 of 2 8 of 8 14 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jafel Filho 12 of 23 52% 7 of 18 4 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 17 6 of 6 0 of 0
Cody Durden 8 of 15 53% 7 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 2 7 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Durden vs. Jafel Filho
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Filho (-600); Durden (+450)

Round 1
A late replacement up a weight class, Durden (17-10-1, 6-8-1 UFC) hopes that he can snap a four-fight skid and exorcise his demons against “Pastor” Filho (17-4, 3-2 UFC). The Brazilian celebrates all but one of his pro wins by stoppage, so the Georgia native will need to be on his best behavior for the next 15 minutes or less. Referee Jason Herzog will keep things official as the two men up at bantamweight throw down. They elect to bump clap hands first.
Despite their seemingly intense beginning, no one throws a strike anywhere close to their intended target for nearly 30 seconds. Filho lazily pushes out a front kick, allowing Durden to respond with an overhand right. Durden rushes forward to tackle Filho to the mat, surprising the Brazilian and forcing him to respond with submission attempts. Durden defends the setups, but in the process, he is turned around with Filho pursuing his own level change. Both men get in a 50-50 position with their arms hooked, but it is Filho who is the quicker man as he stands up and wraps his right arm around Durden’s chest like a malicious seat belt.
Filho also slips his legs around Durden’s to try to disrupt his base, and like a python slowly swallowing a goat, he inch-by-inch separates Durden from his balance to put him down. Filho tries to set something up on top, but the frantic Durden bursts out of the position to get back upright. Filho is quick to chase after him with punch combinations, his front kick at the end of one scoring well. Filho changes stances to time a check of a kick he sees coming, and Durden marches him down and slings him to the mat with a trip. When Durden sits up to drop down strikes, Filho off his back looks for a kneebar. Durden turns out of it to take Filho’s back when they stand, and the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 2
Durden races out of his corner swinging, hurling big punches while Filho makes a funny face and slides to the side. Durden walks through a thudding calf kick to further crowd the Brazilian, and his subsequent kick is caught. Filho does not take advantage of this, instead lobbing a right left hand upstairs. Durden fires back with his own hook, and his low kick makes Filho recoil it to the side to take some of the sting out of it. Durden keeps pressuring his foe, and his inside leg kick scores a few more times. Filho tries for a step-in knee, and he gets his jaw jacked with a right hand. Durden catches him with a right hand and trips Filho up. Filho hits his back and offers up an upkick, using the moment of impact to explode back to his feet. Durden nonetheless tackles him to the ground, pulling Filho away from the cage as Filho grabs it, and he backs off to find another angle in.
Durden winds up an axe kick, smashing his heel directly into Filho’s cup. He tries to keep attacking, but Herzog remarks that he just kicked him square in the groin and that he needs to back off. After a short recovery time, Filho is good to go, and he starts to apply pressure. He dings Durden with a right hand as he crowds him to initiate in a clinch and possible body lock to throw, but Durden sees it coming and pushes him back. Filho parries a big right hand, but the second from Durden gets through. Filho plods forward, chasing after the American throwing big hands. Durden is elusive enough to evade the worst of what comes his way, only for Filho to grab hold of him and throw him down like too many bags of groceries, because who needs three trips to the car when you can bring them all in with one overloaded trip, as cans and bottles fall out of the bags while one rips, and you bang into furniture and hope you brought it all inside. Check the eggs before putting them in the fridge first. Filho attacks mightily on top, forcing Durden to turn over so he can hunt for a choke. Before he gets it, the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Filho
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Filho
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Filho

Round 3
There is a half-hearted hug between the two athletes, and Filho is energized coming out of his corner but does not go wild. Instead, Durden methodically works his way in, using his overhand right to close the distance. Filho ducks in to tie the Georgia native up, and after he tries to manipulate the action, he slashes out with an elbow and a heavy right. Durden breaks off and hunts for a front choke, letting it go to pursue a takedown, ultimate tripping Filho but not getting him down. Both men pop back up, some damage showing under Filho’s right eye, and Durden completes a trip and throw to put the Brazilian on the mat.
Durden looks for an off-angle choke in hopes of otherwise controlling Filho, and the Brazilian’s first roll to escape fails. Filho escapes the grappling exchange but appears totally wiped, slowly trying to stand up. Durden targets a soccer kick square in the ribs, and “Pastor” topples to his back. Durden leaps down to half guard, where he changing his position to take the back. With a single hook in, Durden grabs hold of a neck crank and turns Filho’s head to the left. Filho grits it out but is stuck, with Durden screaming at him or anyone listening while he clubs Filho on the sides of the head. The odd match ends with Durden pumped up and yelling. It may all come down to the first round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Durden (29-28 Durden)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden (29-28 Durden)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Durden (29-28 Durden)

The Official Result
Cody Durden def. Jafel Filho via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

Big Brady picks Jafel Filho over Cody Durden. He highlights Durden's struggles with grappling and submission defense, noting he has been submitted five times. He is impressed by Filho's performance against Clayton Carpenter, where he got a first-round Kimura. He predicts Filho will take Durden down and submit him in the first round.

Filho wins by first round submission
"I think Jafer Filho is going to take him down and and probably going to sub him in the very first round."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jafel Filho

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Filho easily. He notes that Durden is on a terrible losing streak, has been finished repeatedly, and his only recent win is over a retired fighter. Connor also points out that Filho is a strong wrestler and submission artist, and that Durden's short notice makes the line even more justified.

Filho opened at -400, now -650; Durden opened at +330, now +475. Connor thinks the line is sensible.
"i gotta say too like a that feels too wide but b also up at phantom weight like i really don't durden is not yeah it's not a strong flyweight uh filio is a strong has been a strong flyweight …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)
Cody Durden

The host thinks the odds are very wide and that Durden can cause Filho problems due to his scrambly wrestling and Filho's weakness off his back. However, Durden's terrible cardio is a major risk. He says it's an IQ test: impossible to bet Filho, so if you must bet, take Durden. He prefers live betting and will bet Durden +3.5 and over 1.5 rounds.

Durden +3.5 rounds; over 1.5 rounds; prefers live betting
"It's clearly dog or pass. And it's not really up for debate."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

James picks Filho, expecting him to exploit Durden's grappling weakness with a submission win. He notes Filho's elite jiu-jitsu and early strength, predicting a first-round submission.

submission in round one
"I'll take Jafal Filo to win via submission in this one. ... I would expect that Jafel Filo gets a submission in round one here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jafel Filho

Zane picks Filho confidently, noting that Durden has lost four in a row and six of his last seven, and is getting crushed in most losses. He points out that Durden's confidence is gone after being knocked out, and that Filho is a strong submission artist with good top control. Zane also mentions that Filho is moving up from flyweight, which should make him even stronger.

Filho opened at -400, now -650; Durden opened at +330, now +475. Zane thinks the line is appropriate given Durden's short notice.
"you just got to pick filio like this version of durden against a athletically competent submission artist uh-huh i ain't picking cody he's not a bad wrestler like yeah that too yeah you know it's not like filio in fact …"
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Durden 0 8 of 21 38% 54 of 69 3 of 8 37% 0 3 4:50
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 0 25 of 42 59% 43 of 60 4 of 4 100% 1 2 6:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Durden 0 4 of 8 50% 21 of 25 3 of 6 50% 0 0 1:51
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 0 9 of 13 69% 15 of 19 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:37
2 Cody Durden 0 4 of 11 36% 8 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:37
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 0 12 of 22 54% 20 of 30 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:51
3 Cody Durden 0 0 of 2 0% 25 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 2 2:22
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 0 4 of 7 57% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 0 2 2:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Durden 8 of 21 38% 5 of 18 0 of 0 3 of 3 7 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 2
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 25 of 42 59% 20 of 34 1 of 3 4 of 5 7 of 19 1 of 1 17 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Durden 4 of 8 50% 1 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 1
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 9 of 13 69% 5 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 7 1 of 1 5 of 5
2 Cody Durden 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 1
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 12 of 22 54% 11 of 20 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 12 0 of 0 8 of 10
3 Cody Durden 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 4 of 7 57% 4 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tumendemberel (-148), Durden (+124)

Round 1
What should be a grappler’s delight will treat fans as flyweights Durden (17-9-1, 6-7-1 UFC) and Tumendemberel (9-1, 0-1 UFC) ply their trade against one another. The former has dropped three straight, while the latter’s “Art of Knockout” nickname may be a little off-kilter as the Mongolian celebrates most of his victories via tapout. Regardless of funky, multi-syllabic, the two will meet under the auspices of referee Jason Herzog, and they race towards one another without a touch of gloves to get things started.
Durden peels back right before crashing into his opponent, and they offer low kicks at one another before Durden shoots for a double-leg entry. Tumendemberel defends by jumping guard with a guillotine choke, and both fighters are fresh and dry as a bone. Tumendemberel adjusts his grip to grab hold from a different angle, hanging the choke higher up but not locking it down entirely. Durden slithers his neck out of danger and looks to get off some ground strikes, and it takes mere seconds before Tumendemberel scrambles. Tumendemberel is able to stand, and Durden takes his back from one side and has his gloves grabbed while doing so. Herzog warns the Mongolian of the foul, and Tumendemberel leans to put Durden against the cage behind him to take the weight off his back. Tumendemberel shakes his foe off, and the two reset. Both land a single leg kick before Durden shoots, and once more Tumendemberel attacks a guillotine.
Durden twists all the way around to free his neck far easier this time, and he forces them to stand so he can take Tumendemberel down in a way he wishes. The house lights flicker on and off during the match, and Durden looks to Herzog confused while also stifling a takedown shot. Durden knees a bent-over Tumendemberel in the face, and Tumendemberel lifts him off the ground and slams him down on his back. Durden hits the ground and sets up an armbar, snatching hold of Tumendemberel’s right limb but failing to grip it fully. Tumendemberel wriggles out and retreats, and Durden pops back up. Tumendemberel swings for a big right hand, and Durden shoots for a counter takedown. Tumendemberel flips Durden to his back and elbows him in the face a few times, but Durden is still pressing for the takedown. When Durden flips his foe over, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel

Round 2
Herzog issues Tumendemberel a stern warning to not strike Durden in the back of the head between rounds, and Tumendemberel acknowledges this. They start off the second round with Tumendemberel whipping low kicks, and his long punches keep Durden from recklessly shooting…for a time. Durden does go after a takedown, and he gets tossed to his back and attacks a leglock. Tumendemberel sits down to take the danger out of the ankle/heel lock, and he drills Durden in the side of the head until he legs it go. Tumendemberel grabs hold of Durden’s back and assumes a body triangle, and Durden still looks to turn and break out of it. Durden manages to put Tumendemberel on his back despite a brief body lock, and the Mongolian is once more warned for hooking his fingers inside of Durden’s gloves. The ensuing scramble results in Tumendemberel flipping Durden over, where he holds on with a guillotine choke from his back.
This allows a potential Von Preux submission, but Durden smiles when it is applied and his smiles disappears when he gets belted in the face by Tumendemberel’s free right hand. Herzog is on top of these two as there are possible fence grabs, illegal upkicks and other malfeasance going on, and the moment Durden gets up, Tumendemberel hits a clean tackling double to put the American back down. Tumendemberel smothers while in top control grinding his elbow on his foe’s face while Durden motions to Herzog for some intervention. Tumendemberel drills Durden hard in the back of the head, and Herzog calls for him to aim for the ear. Durden gets to his knees and stands, where he rushes after Tumendemberel and nails him with a one-two. When Durden keeps throwing, time expires, and Tumendemberel punches him clearly after the bell. What are rules?

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 3
Durden opens up with a huge right hand, and Tumendemberel counters him by tackling him to the floor. Durden turns the corner to take the back of the Mongolian, who manages to shimmy and slowly buck Durden off of him. Tumendemberel thumps Durden on the chin with a few more elbows, and Durden returns to a knee in hopes of standing. When Durden stands back up, Tumendemberel mat returns him and takes his back to lock up a body triangle. Tumendemberel starts fishing for a rear-naked choke before getting position, and he nails Durden in the back of the head again. Durden slumps over and finds himself in RNC danger, with Tumendemberel’s arm across his face. Durden hand-fights to defend the submission, and he breaks the grip around his face and abdomen to reverse “Art of Knockout.”
Durden drops down a single right hand and positions himself to attack an arm-triangle choke, and he is in half guard with Tumendemberel answering the proverbial telephone to defend the submission. Durden lays flat on top before jumping to the other side, and Tumendemberel rolls to his knees to break out of it. Durden clings to his man from the back, and Tumendemberel bumps and shakes but Durden has his toes hooked in the cage to prevent him from getting rolled off. Durden hangs on for dear life, but he is inch-by-inch sliding off. Tumendemberel finds the moment to free himself and he lashes out with a hard right hand, all while planting Durden flat on his back. Tumendemberel leans his shoulder down to pressure for a possible arm-triangle, and he stands up and finds himself in Hail Mary heel hook danger. Tumendemberel yanks his limb free and the bell sounds, but he decides he is not done fighting and tries to boot Durden in the face with a soccer kick after the bell. Herzog shoulder-checks the Mongolian to his back, but nothing else happens.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel (30-27 Tumendemberel)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel (29-27 Tumendemberel)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel (29-27 Tumendemberel)

The Official Result
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel def. Cody Durden via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (27 days before fight)
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Angelo says Cody Durden used to be a dog but is now a shell of himself, while Nyamjargal is a powerful striker who can be hit but is durable. He notes that Carlos Hernandez took down Nyamjargal four times but got dropped, and Carlos is more durable than Cody. He picks Nyamjargal to win.

"Unfortunately I'm picking Nam."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Big Brady picks Nyamjargal Tumendemberel over Cody Durden. He acknowledges Durden is likely more skilled but worries about his durability after taking massive damage in recent fights. Durden has been finished five times by submission and two by KO, and his chin appears to be fading. Tumendemberel has good front chokes and opportunistic submissions. Brady predicts Durden will look good early, get hurt, shoot for a takedown, and get submitted in the second round.

Tumendemberel by second round submission
"Give me Nam Jarle two in a barrel to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Cody picks Tumendemberel, citing Durden's cardio issues and hittability. He notes that Tumendemberel only needs to land one shot. He expects a late knockout.

"I'll take the Mongolian fire to get the win."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cody Durden

Connor picks Durden because he believes Durden's relentless aggression will overwhelm Tumendemberel, who lacks a clean answer for pressure. He notes that Tumendemberel is a dangerous puncher but has been taken down easily in the past. Durden's jab and combination punching should allow him to initiate exchanges effectively.

"I think this is a fight where Durden can press his aggression and two, two and several can, we'll never have a clean answer for it."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Daniel Vreeland picks his friend Cody Durden, acknowledging bias but providing reasoning. He believes Durden's experience against higher-level competition will be key, and that Durden will avoid getting caught early. Vreeland notes that Durden's career is on the line and expects him to give a veteran lesson.

"I'm super biased. Duran is my friend, so of course I'm picking Deran. I think he's going to come out here and give this guy a tour of the octagon."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cody Durden

James picks Cody Durden as an underdog, believing the fight is close to 50/50 and Durden is the value side. He notes Durden's superior competition and skills, but acknowledges his poor chin and tendency to get hurt. James thinks Durden can dominate if he avoids getting knocked out, but admits it's a tough call due to Durden's durability issues.

"I'm going to pick Cody Durham because he's the underdog here. And if you have an underdog, but you're saying the fight's 50/50, automatically that's the value side."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Tumendemberel has shown improved defensive grappling and durability. He can stop Durden's wrestling and threaten with submissions or power shots. Durden's recent losses show his ceiling. The under 2.5 rounds is appealing as both have finishing ability.

under 2.5 rounds
"The spot that I like most in this matchup is the under two and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Paul picks Tumendemberel, citing Durden's tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Tumendemberel's durability and power. He expects to bet live after Durden wins the first round.

"Two in Denver all wins late. Uh, is my official pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Cody Durden

The MMA Guru picks Cody Durden, despite a personal beef. He believes Durden's grappling and pressure will be too much for Tumendemberel, who lacks experience. He expects Durden to win by decision, noting his toughness and volume.

decision
"I'm going to go with Cody Deren by decision. 2928."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cody Durden

Zane agrees with Durden, though he expresses disdain for Durden's personality. He notes that Tumendemberel's ideas stop at one punch and that Durden can deal with that. He acknowledges the possibility of Tumendemberel landing a big shot or a submission, but thinks Durden's pressure will be too much.

"Yeah, I agree. Durden is the pick."
Submission R2 3:13 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Allan Nascimento 0 52 of 115 45% 52 of 115 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:21
Cody Durden 0 57 of 128 44% 57 of 128 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Allan Nascimento 0 26 of 58 44% 26 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cody Durden 0 36 of 73 49% 36 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:03
2 Allan Nascimento 0 26 of 57 45% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:21
Cody Durden 0 21 of 55 38% 21 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Allan Nascimento 52 of 115 45% 19 of 69 7 of 17 26 of 29 51 of 114 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cody Durden 57 of 128 44% 47 of 112 5 of 9 5 of 7 57 of 128 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Allan Nascimento 26 of 58 44% 7 of 31 3 of 9 16 of 18 25 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cody Durden 36 of 73 49% 28 of 61 5 of 8 3 of 4 36 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Allan Nascimento 26 of 57 45% 12 of 38 4 of 8 10 of 11 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Durden 21 of 55 38% 19 of 51 0 of 1 2 of 3 21 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Durden vs. Allan Nascimento
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nascimento (-260); Durden (+210)

Round 1
Due to Durden (17-8-1, 6-6-1 UFC) stepping in to replace Rafael Estevam on short notice, he has agreed to face “Puro Osso” Nascimento (21-6, 3-1 UFC) at a catchweight of 130 pounds. This wrestler vs. grappler affair will be officiated by referee Mark Smith, who claps the athletes in as they touch gloves to signal their relief in being able to fight and get paid this weekend.
Durden bounces up and down on his heels, possibly presenting looks for takedowns, but then springs forward and drills the Brazilian with an overhand right. Durden pops Nascimento with a jab, and he smacks the front leg with his shin. Durden evades a kick and hurls an overhand right, and he pushes out a front kick that is caught and forces him to the mat. Durden lets him back up and puts a jab right in the Brazilian’s face. Nascimento hammers the lead calf with a kick, and a second puts Durden on notice. Durden races ahead throwing punches, and Nascimento slips to the side and beats him with another thudding kick. He scores one more when Durden comes his direction, and Durden still crashes the pocket and checks Nascimento’s chin with a left hand on the cheek. The jabs from Durden are marking up Nascimento’s cheek, and he is not far from splitting it open with sheer volume.
Nascimento keeps his back to the cage and tosses out kicks, and he sharply counters Durden with a right hand and plants one more calf kick for good measure. Durden punches through the guar to reach the taller Brazilian, and he catches him with a right hook and makes Nascimento double over. Nascimento reels and backs away, and Durden knocks him back to the wall with an overhand right. Nascimento goes back after his leg kick, and Durden punches him in the guts to back him away again. Nascimento checks a kick and lets his hands go, and his head kick does reach the top of the head. Durden kicks and shoots for a takedown, and Nascimento stands him up and skirts away from the offense he anticipates. Durden still marches him down, his leg lump and welted from the kicks, so that he can put his hands on Nascimento’s jaw. They trash one another with heavy leg kicks, and Nascimento stings Durden and forces him to shoot on him. Nascimento stands back to let it fly by him, and the horn sounds to end what became a close round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 2
Durden starts out the round as aggressive as ever, and he scores on the Brazilian early. Nascimento slows him down with a steady diet of calf kicks, and his right hands continue to find their home while Durden rushes after him. They clash shins when kicking at the same time, and then bang their heads together when coming towards one another. Nascimento backs off, with Smith telling them to be careful, and he rushes in behind a knee. Durden shakes it off and responds with a plethora of punches, only slowing when Nascimento tries to introduce his shin to the Georgia native’s chin. Nascimento whiffs on a looping left hand, and he has a leg kick checked. Nascimento stands Durden up with a right hand, and he gets his head snapped back in the counter. Nascimento pounds on the front leg, and he eats three punches down the middle like they are nothing. Durden gets clipped with a left hand, constantly pressing forward even when under fire. Nascimento rattles him with a long one-two, wrapping his hand around the back of the neck but not using it for a takedown.
Both met let their hands go, and Nascimento puts Durden down with a counter right hand.
Durden ducks to shoot, and he finds himself immediate ensnared in an anaconda choke. Nascimento has the submission virtually completed the moment Durden hits his knees, in what may be the worst choice that “Custom Made” could have made. Durden turns to his back, but there is no way out, so he has to give up.
Durden taps until Smith intervenes, and Nascimento has now recorded 15 submissions in his 22 pro wins. He asks for a ranked opponent, specifically calling out Steve Erceg for his next outing.

The Official Result
Allan Nascimento def. Cody Durden R2 3:13 via Submission (Anaconda Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Angelo picks Allan Nascimento, but is hesitant. He notes Nascimento's jiu-jitsu is excellent but his takedowns are poor, so he relies on being taken down to sweep. He thinks Cody Durden's wrestling and cardio have declined, and he gets tired. However, he worries that if Durden doesn't wrestle, Nascimento won't finish on the feet, leading to a low-scoring fight. He may avoid it in DFS.

"I think Alan wins this fight. I think Alan could potentially finish this new version of Cody Durden, but I'm... probably going to avoid it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Big Brady picks Allan Nascimento, noting Cody Durden is on short notice, 34 years old, and has taken a ton of damage in recent fights. He highlights Nascimento's size, length, and excellent grappling. He believes once the fight hits the ground, Nascimento will have a huge advantage and predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission, minus 300 favorite
"I like Nasnto here. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Connor also picks Nascimento, noting that Durden is super vulnerable on defense and aggressive to a fault. He thinks Nascimento's submission game is dangerous enough to catch Durden, but he wouldn't be surprised if Durden rides out a win on top. He mentions Durden's bigger signature wins but still leans Nascimento.

"I think I'll take Nascimento and one thing I do know about him is that he's durable."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Nascimento's BJJ will get Durden into bad spots and he will eventually pull off a submission. The host's favorite spot is the under 2.5 rounds at even money.

under 2.5 rounds at even money
"His BJJ should help him get Duran into some bad spots and from there I expect Nasameto to eventually pull off a submission. Although my favorite spot in this fight would probably be the under two and a half at …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

The MMA Guru picks Allan Nascimento, noting his size advantage at catchweight and superior grappling. He compares Nascimento's dominant grappling against Jafel Filho to Cody Durden's struggles against Jake Hadley. He worries about Durden taking the fight on short notice and predicts Nascimento wins by decision or submission in the second or third round.

submission in the second or third round
"I'm going to say that Allan Nascimento gets this one done. Another thing to mention here as well, Allan Nascimento out-grappled Jafel Filho round after round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Zane picks Nascimento to catch a submission, noting that Durden sells out so hard on offense that he makes himself vulnerable to submissions. He acknowledges that if Nascimento doesn't submit him, Durden could grind out a win. He mentions Nascimento's durability and solid submission game.

submission
"I'm thinking to take Nascimento to catch sub but like you know if he doesn't this could be a very scrappy hard fought fight."
LOSS vs Jose Ochoa
KO R2 0:11 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Durden 0 9 of 41 21% 12 of 47 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:42
Jose Ochoa 1 30 of 79 37% 52 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Durden 0 9 of 39 23% 12 of 45 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:42
Jose Ochoa 0 25 of 73 34% 47 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Cody Durden 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jose Ochoa 1 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Durden 9 of 41 21% 6 of 34 1 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 37 0 of 1 1 of 3
Jose Ochoa 30 of 79 37% 18 of 42 7 of 28 5 of 9 24 of 71 3 of 5 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Durden 9 of 39 23% 6 of 32 1 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 35 0 of 1 1 of 3
Jose Ochoa 25 of 73 34% 13 of 36 7 of 28 5 of 9 22 of 68 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Cody Durden 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jose Ochoa 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Durden vs. Jose Ochoa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ochoa (-180), Durden (+150)

Round 1
Trying to break out of a bit of a rough patch, having lost three of four, Durden (17-7-1, 6-5-1 UFC) needs a win bad and wants it even more because this match takes place at home. A product of American Top Team Atlanta, he will welcome wild-swinging Ochoa (7-1, 1 NC; 0-1 UFC) to the ATL. When the dust settles between these two flyweights, one will return to the win column—barring something unexpected. Referee Kevin MacDonald will be on top of the action. The two combatants bump fists, and Ochoa comes out erratically with bouncing, jittery movement and kicks. Ochoa stabs the body with his toes extended, and he does this two more times before Durden comes back at him with a left hand. Ochoa continues working the body with the same move, and he spins with an elbow on the counter try from Durden. Durden shakes it off and is ready to trade, but it is Ochoa who lands in bunches. Ochoa’s movement allows him to avoid the worst that Durden tosses at him, while keeping a solid range with his legs outstretched constantly. Durden latches onto Ochoa’s right leg in pursuit of a single, wrangling the younger man to the mat and lacing his hooks around them for a moment. Durden slithers to the side in an attempt to take the back, but Ochoa knows this is coming and turns himself around while standing up. Durden knees his way out of the clinch, and Ochoa thanks him for this by kicking him in the fast-reddening lead leg. Ochoa slips a punch to connect with three, with Durden’s chin holding up but taking damage early. Ochoa tags the Georgian with a fast combination, and he grabs hold of a guillotine when Durden shoots and knees him to break up the shot. Ochoa goes to the body with a left, and he spams two head kick from the same leg and chains punches and another kick behind it. Durden tries to bully him back, only to absorbs an elbow and a mean left hand. Ochoa is a meat grinder, marching Durden down and putting him through his paces. Durden takes several more blows on the chin, and in response he unloads a right hand from the depths that stuns Ochoa to his core. This allows Durden to easily change levels and take Ochoa down, but Ochoa hits his back and starts firing off upkicks aplenty. Durden lowers himself down through the flailing legs, dropping down a few standing-and-ground punches. As soon as Ochoa locks up a triangle choke, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa

Round 2
The second round kicks off with Durden grinning like a banshee. As he moves to the center of the cage, Ochoa meets him there. Durden reaches out with a right hand to initiate an exchange, and the younger fighter dips back and clubs him with an uppercut that shakes the Covington, Georgia, native up badly. As Durden wobbles back to put the fence behind him, Ochoa just misses with a flying switch kick aimed at his mug.
The moment he plants his feet, Ochoa dodges a left hook and unloads a blistering short left hand that jacks Durden in the jaw and sends him careening to the floor. While MacDonald is sprinting to the fighters to wave things off, Ochoa hammers the local with two or three more fierce right hands.
MacDonald gets in to stop the fight, and Durden’s eyes are wide and rolling around in his noggin. Ochoa walks off and celebrates, while Durden looks around confusedly and briefly protests but needs to be helped back to his feet, further justifying the stoppage. Ochoa earns his first UFC victory in big way, putting down a gritty grappler like Durden in the latter’s home territory.

The Official Result
Jose Ochoa def. Cody Durden R2 0:11 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Angelo leans Cody Durden because he is battle-tested and relentless with takedowns. He notes that Jose has good takedown defense but hasn't faced a wrestler as determined as Cody. He acknowledges Cody's suspect chin but believes his pressure will be key.

"I'm probably going to lean Cody here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jose Ochoa

Big Brady picks Jose Ochoa by second-round submission. He likes Ochoa's striking and sneaky submission game, and notes that Cody Durden has been taking damage and has four submission losses. He believes Ochoa is dangerous everywhere and will either knock out Durden or snatch a submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to say OOA wins this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jose Ochoa

Ochoa's superior striking and aggressive BJJ will overwhelm Durden. He will eventually secure a submission and force the tap.

submission
"Look for him to utilize his superior striking... it's a very good and active aggressive BJJ shoulder look to get this fight to the ground... slaps on a submission and forces the tap."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jose Ochoa

The Guru picks Jose Ochoa, impressed by his performance against Lone'er Kavanagh where he showed finishing ability and hurt him to the body. He notes Ochoa is a 'nasty finisher' with submission skills, and expects a finish in the first two rounds, possibly by body shot or submission after hurting Durden.

Jose Ochoa by finish in the first two rounds
"Joseé Ooa is really good and I'm going to take him to win and it's [ __ ] am I going to take him to like dude he looked really good against Lona Kavanaaugh and he should not have looked …"
LOSS vs Joshua Van
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joshua Van 0 70 of 217 32% 74 of 223 2 of 8 25% 0 0 3:14
Cody Durden 0 165 of 304 54% 184 of 323 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joshua Van 0 14 of 33 42% 18 of 38 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:14
Cody Durden 0 30 of 49 61% 46 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Joshua Van 0 27 of 99 27% 27 of 100 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Cody Durden 0 72 of 136 52% 73 of 137 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
3 Joshua Van 0 29 of 85 34% 29 of 85 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Cody Durden 0 63 of 119 52% 65 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joshua Van 70 of 217 32% 60 of 203 6 of 8 4 of 6 70 of 217 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Durden 165 of 304 54% 131 of 262 22 of 27 12 of 15 144 of 279 19 of 22 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joshua Van 14 of 33 42% 13 of 30 1 of 2 0 of 1 14 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Durden 30 of 49 61% 24 of 39 2 of 4 4 of 6 15 of 32 13 of 15 2 of 2
2 Joshua Van 27 of 99 27% 22 of 93 4 of 5 1 of 1 27 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Durden 72 of 136 52% 57 of 119 14 of 15 1 of 2 71 of 134 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Joshua Van 29 of 85 34% 25 of 80 1 of 1 3 of 4 29 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Durden 63 of 119 52% 50 of 104 6 of 8 7 of 7 58 of 113 5 of 5 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Durden vs. Joshua Van
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-155), Durden (+130)

Round 1
Speed is the name of the game in this flyweight affair, as skilled grappler Durden (17-6-1, 6-4-1 UFC) will try to ply his trade against offense-first Houstonian by way of Myanmar Van (11-2, 4-1 UFC). The two 125ers looking to climb the ranks share similar stoppage rates of 71% and 73%, respectively, which is rare at this division and something referee Chris Tognoni should keep in mind when officiating this contest. Fists are bumped, and they come into close range to trade. Durden lands a low kick and comes up short on a one-two. Van connects with a hard low kick, and Durden fires back with a surprisingly effective high kick and a punch salvo. Durden punches his way into a double-leg takedown, and he gets elbows in the side of the head when trying. Durden drops all the way down to fish for Van’s ankle, and he lifts “The Fearless” up and deposits him to his seat. Van methodically works his way back to his feet with Durden pressuring and leaning on him, and he hacks with a few elbows before Durden drags him back down to the floor. Van strikes with elbows to the side of the dome, and Durden takes a moment to cover as he does not like absorbing them. Van muscles his way up to his feet, but Durden is on him like a cheap suit. Van rips the body with a right hand to break away, and he rushes forward behind his jab. Durden fires off a left hand, and the two trade blows in the pocket. Van pierces the guard with a few jabs and works the body in subsequent strikes, and he snaps the head back with a sharp uppercut. Van gets Durden’s attention, slipping an uppercut to get Durden’s attention. Van slams his shin on the front leg of his foe, and he walks square into an uppercut that Durden is spamming. As Van meanders forward, Durden stops him with a double-leg entry. Van defends with elbows until Durden switches to a single-leg takedown attempt, and Van is able to set his leg down while keeping himself upright. Durden tries to lift Van up in the air, but he settles for grinding out the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 2
The flyweights race out of their corners to re-engage, and engage they do. Both men load up on wild strikes, and Van rocks his opponent with a flurry. Durden fires back, and he keeps Van honest but is not taking him out of the equation. Van shrugs off a head kick to do some damage with punch combos, and he sprawls to stop a takedown and clips Durden with an uppercut. Van chains his punches together, and Durden’s balance is starting to betray him as his knees wobble. Van knocks his man back with an accurate series of punches, and he drills the midsection and is ready to stop a takedown. Durden flops to his back, and Van tells him to get up. Tognoni has him stand up, and they start up throwing fire again. Durden lands, and all Van does is smile and swing back with a vengeance. Durden’s power is starting to slip due to fatigue, while Van is accurate and putting high volume that marks Durden’s face up on the nose and eyebrow. Durden overswings, and he eats a crisp overhand right for his effort. “The Fearless” fearlessly engages in a slugfest, landing first and last in exchanges. Van is not loading up, instead allowing Durden to do that so he can capitalize on the wild, lumbering swings and retaliate sharply. Van stops a takedown in its tracks so he can drive home an uppercut, and he wades away from a spinning back fist and slides in to connect with a right hand. Durden’s inaccurate left hook leads to three punches busting him in the chops. Durden keeps swinging hard, and the telegraphed strikes are either missing entirely or sliding off the target and getting rolled with. Van puts a one-two on the chin, and Durden responds with a left and a big right. Van strings together five punches in rapid succession, leaning back to dodge “Custom Made” and forward to connect cleanly. When Van eats the power strikes, he does not budge, while every other blow seems to draw a reaction out of the slowing Durden. The round ends with the two trading leather.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 3
A glove touch commences the final frame, and Van is immediately in striking range as he flusters Durden with movement and footwork. Durden fights behind his jab, and he puts some mustard behind a follow-up right hand. Van no-sells the strike and nails Durden with two powerful low kicks, and Durden swipes back at him with left hooks. Van goes high and then to the body and low calf, mixing things up to keep Durden guessing. Durden tries a Superman punch from up close, only fur Van to block it and knock him back a step. One-twos from both sides land on the guard, and Van clubs his foe on the temple and drops Durden to a knee. Durden signals that it was not a big deal, drawing Van into a brawl. Yan’s offense is gradually breaking Durden down, and he connects with a particularly rough left hand that makes Durden fall to his back. Durden is forced to stand back up, and he keeps his right hand covering the eye socket that might have been hurt. Van strings three punches into a knee to the liver, and Durden shells up and launches a huge right hand that goes wide. Van stifles a takedown and misses with a haymaker, only to drift back when Durden spins with a back fist. Van slips and counters his foe, and Durden wobbles but stays on his feet. A jab from Van makes Durden frown, but it does not slow him down as he hurls huge hooks anywhere he can aim them. Van walks him down and connects cleanly, knocking Durden’s mouthpiece out. Tognoni calls time during a moment to break to replace Durden’s gumshield, and the two resume their torrid brawl. Durden may be leading with his chin, but he is swinging with everything he has. Van hurts him with a few hooks, a knee and a head kick, and Durden is hanging on tight but just taking damage. Durden swings it out until the final bell, putting an end to an exciting striking affair.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (30-27 Van)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)

The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Cody Durden via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-26, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Angelo picks Cody Durden as a dog, citing Durden's relentless pressure wrestling and cardio as key factors. He believes Durden's takedowns will frustrate Joshua Van and deplete his confidence. Angelo notes both fighters are chinny but expects Durden to focus on winning rather than brawling. He is monitoring the line movement and may bet if the odds widen further.

Plus 138 as a dog, might bet plus 3.5 spread if odds widen
"Cody Duran is going to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Cody picks Van but expects a tough first round. He notes Durden's wrestling and fast starts, but thinks Van's cardio and volume will take over in later rounds. He suggests live betting Van after the first round.

"Van for me, but I expect round one to be difficult."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Cody Durden

Connor picks Durden, though he hates to do it. He notes that Durden starts fast and pressures aggressively, which could overwhelm Van, who tends to start slow and build into fights. Connor points out that Van has been taking too much damage recently and is fighting too frequently, which raises concerns about his durability. He also mentions that Durden's pace and wrestling could be a problem for Van, who has shown vulnerability early in fights.

"I think i'm gonna pick durden here. They hate to do it."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Daniel admits bias as Durden's friend but provides analysis: he believes Durden's well-rounded attack and ability to exploit Van's uncomfortable ranges will lead to a win. He expects Durden to mix takedowns and striking effectively.

"I think that Cody Duran with a more well-rounded attack."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Joshua Van

Van successfully bounced back from his knockout loss to Charles Johnson by defeating Edgar Chairez. He will take that momentum, showcase improved takedown defense, keep the fight standing, and eventually catch Durden slipping to get a knockout victory.

knockout victory
"I believe you'll be able to take that momentum showcase his improved takedown defense keep this fight in The Standing Room and eventually catch dirt and slipping leading to a knockout victory for Joshua van"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Paul picks Durden as an underdog, citing his wrestling and fast starts. He notes Van's high fight frequency and potential wear. He thinks Durden can win the first two rounds and hold on, but acknowledges the risk.

"I actually think I will take Durden and hope he wins the first and wins the second."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Cody Durden

The MMA Guru picks Cody Durden, citing Van's tendency to get rocked on the feet and Durden's improved hands and grappling. He thinks Durden's size and takedowns will be too much for Van, and that once Durden gets a lead he is hard to catch. He predicts a 29-28 decision based on the first two rounds.

"I'm going to go Cody Duran I'm going to go of Cody Duran over Joshua van"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Cody Durden

Zane also picks Durden, expressing concern for Van's health and development. He notes that Van is inexperienced and makes bad decisions under duress, and that Durden's early pressure and wrestling could exploit that. Zane points out that Van has been in wars recently and is fighting too often, which could lead to him getting knocked out or losing a decision. He believes Durden is a tough out and that Van's ceiling is higher but not yet realized.

"I think i'll pick durden too. I do not like it."
WIN vs Matt Schnell
Submission (ninja choke) R2 0:29 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Durden 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Matt Schnell 0 34 of 78 43% 37 of 81 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Durden 0 40 of 80 50% 40 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matt Schnell 0 33 of 77 42% 36 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cody Durden 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Matt Schnell 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Durden 40 of 83 48% 32 of 73 3 of 3 5 of 7 38 of 81 2 of 2 0 of 0
Matt Schnell 34 of 78 43% 31 of 73 3 of 5 0 of 0 34 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Durden 40 of 80 50% 32 of 71 3 of 3 5 of 6 38 of 78 2 of 2 0 of 0
Matt Schnell 33 of 77 42% 30 of 72 3 of 5 0 of 0 33 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cody Durden 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Schnell 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Durden vs. Matt Schnell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Durden (-335), Schnell (+220)

Round 1
Due to the late nature of this flyweight pairing coming together—Durden (16-6-1, 5-4-1 UFC) will serve as a replacement to Alessandro Costa—the two men next will be fighting up in weight at bantamweight. Both short-notice Durden and Schnell (16-8, 1 NC; 6-6, 1 NC UFC) are hovering around the .500 mark in the promotion, so a win may go a long way while a loss could spell disaster. Referee Chris Tognoni will serve as the Octagon ranger for this contest, and gloves are touched to get things going. Durden moves to the center of the cage and is caught with an early uppercut. Durden backs off and finds another way in, and Schnell clips him twice more in a speedy exchange. Schnell points at him but does not capitalize on hurting and reddening Durden, instead allowing Durden to walk him down. Durden elects to fight to his disadvantage, brawling wildly and backing Schnell up a big. Durden lands several body shots until Schnell fires back, and Schnell’s attacks are more powerful and result in Durden thinking twice. Durden lands a right and eats two rights back. Durden unleashes a fury of punches, and Schnell shakes him up with furious counters that are heavier and faster. Durden wipes his hands and blinks it out, and he backs away as Schnell kicks him in the ribs. Durden wings a few punches that come up short, and Schnell times an outside leg kick that buckles the knee. Durden catches his man on the end of a left hand, and Schnell fires back with a right. Durden clubs him with a hard right, and Schnell skirts to the side and prepares an uppercut that lands on the nose. Schnell clacks the front leg again, and he allows Durden to overswing so he can counter effectively. Durden still manages to get off his right hand a few times, and Schnell’s head movement and footwork keeps him from absorbing any flush. Schnell snipes his man a few times until Durden pushes out a front kick to slow him down. Schnell ducks a head kick that skims his hair, and the two throw caution to the wind and brawl again. Schnell gets tagged with a left hand on the nose, and he winds up and retorts with a flurry of fists. Durden connects at the end of a right hand that cuts Schnell’s eyebrow, and Schnell bites down on his gumshield and blasts Durden in the face with an overhand right. Durden spins with a wheel kick that brushes past his opponent, and Schnell gathers his thoughts and punches his way into a short combo. They trade left hands, and Schnell lands three while Durden gets off two. The two trade right to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 2
The fighters are ready to pick up right where they left off, and after a few low kicks, Schnell lands a big left hand. After connecting, Schnell shoots in with a telegraphed takedown, and Durden’s eyes go wide and he grins as he snatches hold of a guillotine choke. Schnell twists around, and Durden chains his submission into a ninja choke. When “Danger” keeps turning, he finds himself in even graver danger, as Durden locks the choke down and turns Schnell to his back. As soon as Schnell is on his back, he taps with both hands in a panic as the submission was likely to put his lights out. Durden releases the choke when Tognoni gets between them and goes over to the cage to shout at someone in the audience. His team manages to calm him down, and he celebrates his handiwork with his wife and corner. While Durden gives his post-fight interview, Schnell removes his gloves and places them in the center of the cage to signal his retirement. Instead of looking for a moment on the mic, Schnell departs the cage, overcome with emotion.

The Official Result
Cody Durden def. Matt Schnell R2 0:29 via Submission (Ninja Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Angelo picks Cody Durden (referred to as Alexandre Costa) because he is a solid striker with real power, good takedown defense, and durability, while Matt Schnell has been in too many wars and his chin is failing. He believes Costa will blast Schnell's legs and crack him in the head, leading to a knockout. He notes that Schnell is not dangerous enough to put Costa away.

"Alexandre Costa should win here he should dominate here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Big Brady picks Cody Durden to win by knockout. He notes Durden is stepping in on short notice but looked career-best in his last fight before getting caught. Brady believes Durden's striking will be the difference and that he just needs to land one clean shot. He warns about Schnell's dangerous grappling but thinks Durden will avoid the ground and finish the fight inside the distance.

fight finishes inside the distance
"give me Duran Duran by knockout and it should be a fight that that finishes inside the distance"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Matt Schnell

Cody picks Schnell, arguing that Durden's short notice, weight cut issues, and lack of corner are major red flags. He notes Schnell's superior experience and cardio, but admits Durden's power and aggression could end it early. He sees value at +250 but is not highly confident.

"I will take match nil"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Daniel is biased as a friend of Durden, but he believes Durden's power and Schnell's weak chin will be the deciding factor. He acknowledges Schnell is well-rounded and technical, but thinks Durden will eventually land a knockout. He notes that Schnell has been knocked out in recent fights and that Durden is aware of Schnell's chin. Despite the short notice, Daniel is confident Durden will get the win.

"I do think eventually at some point Cody Duran's gonna get his second UFC knockout so uh let's let's [ __ ] go Cody Duran... I will never pick against Cody Duran."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Matt Schnell

Paul is intrigued by Schnell at +250, noting Durden is taking the fight on a week's notice, moving up to 135 lbs, and may not have a coach. He acknowledges Schnell's chin issues but believes his experience and cardio advantage could pay off if he survives early. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and leans Schnell.

"maybe matchell is the PRP pick Underdog some series plus money that actually could come through but you can't be ton confident on confident on it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matt Schnell

The MMA Guru picks Matt Schnell over Cody Durden. He calls Schnell the 'chiniest fighter in UFC history' but believes Alexandro Costa is explosive and powerful. He notes Schnell got wobbled by Sumudaerji and predicts Costa will put him away brutally in round one.

round one finish
"alesandro Costa is going to put him away in round one brutally"
LOSS vs Bruno Silva
TKO (punches) R2 2:58 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bruno Silva 0 28 of 63 44% 31 of 68 1 of 1 100% 3 0 2:35
Cody Durden 1 42 of 73 57% 45 of 77 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bruno Silva 0 24 of 57 42% 25 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Cody Durden 0 22 of 47 46% 23 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
2 Bruno Silva 0 4 of 6 66% 6 of 10 1 of 1 100% 3 0 2:23
Cody Durden 1 20 of 26 76% 22 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bruno Silva 28 of 63 44% 20 of 52 5 of 7 3 of 4 27 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cody Durden 42 of 73 57% 31 of 57 6 of 10 5 of 6 24 of 51 1 of 1 17 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bruno Silva 24 of 57 42% 16 of 46 5 of 7 3 of 4 24 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Durden 22 of 47 46% 13 of 33 5 of 9 4 of 5 21 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bruno Silva 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cody Durden 20 of 26 76% 18 of 24 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 17 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Durden vs. Bruno Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Durden (-122), Silva (+102)

Round 1
In the only other fight on the billing beyond the main event with UFC-ranked fighter, top-15 Durden (16-5-1, 5-3-1 UFC) would like nothing more than to put a rough face crank submission loss in December behind him. He will meet fellow grappler Silva (13-5-2, 1 NC; 3-2, 1 NC UFC) in the center of the cage, in what could be an interesting clash of styles on the mat. Referee Chris Tognoni is ready whether it lasts three minutes or all three rounds, and he commences the match as the 125ers bump fists. Durden is quick to lash out with a body kick, and he walks Silva down and marks Silva’s left eye up early with punches. Durden changes levels, and the two bonk heads as Tognoni tells them to be careful. Durden keeps chasing after his opponent, and Silva pushes him away and lands a sweeping leg kick. Silva races forward to tie the American up, and he lands a knee to the guts while Durden looks to trip Silva up. Durden scores a right at the break, and chases to land another long right hand before Silva can zip away. Silva pushes off with the ball of his foot, and he jabs the body and avoids a front kick. Durden clips his opponent with three punches, and he ducks when Silva tries to spin with a back fist to counter. Durden sits down on a chopping kick, and he evades a scooping uppercut and stops a takedown effort in its tracks from the Brazilian. Durden surges forward, fighting behind his jab, and he swipes with a left hook on his way in. Durden attacks with a leg kick, and he is countered with an overhand right. Durden connects with two hooks, and he meanders forward pawing with hooks until committing to one up top and another to the body. Silva misses with another big uppercut, but his front kick does land cleanly. Durden winds up with a huge right hand that busts into Silva’s nose, reddening his cheek and nose, and he wears it well. Durden parries a body shot, swipes out with a left hand and drills Silva with a right hand. Silva cries foul, and Tognoni pauses the action and calls for a replay to confirm that Durden’s fingers grazed the eyeball. The Brazilian needs a doctor to come in and wipe away his eye, and Tognoni goes to calmly warn Durden for the accidental foul. Silva informs Tognoni that he can continue, but needs a little more time to recover—he has four more minutes, and no booing crowd to urge him to return to combat sooner than he should. Silva tells Tognoni his eye is spasming, but he can keep going, and they get back to it after two minutes of recovery. Both men rush at one hellbent for leather, and the proceed to throw it hard. Both men tag the other, and Durden is warned for outstretched fingers. Silva kicks low as blood trickles out of his nostril, and Durden turns with a back kick that plants square in the solar plexus. Durden points to his success, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 2
The flyweights clock in for the second round, and Silva is smiling and ready to return to action. He strikes first in the form of a leg kick, and Durden answers him with a twitchy right hand. Durden finds success with it and beans the Brazilian with two more, putting “Bulldog” on skates. Silva backs off and shoots for a takedown, and Durden catches a brabo choke. Silva turns the proper direction, and he fights off a subsequent anaconda choke. Durden tries a third time to land a similar submission, and Silva survives all three and lowers himself to his back. Silva tries to tug off the fence links to find a better angle, and Durden lays flat on top of him. Silva wall-walks to his knees, and Durden is on him and drags him back down when Silva pops up. Durden stays glued to his man, but Silva explodes back to his feet and walks Durden down.
“Bulldog” walks through a jab and drills Durden in the jaw with a ferocious uppercut, knocking his mouthpiece clean out and sending the American crashing to the canvas. Silva pounces and unloads with relentless right hands, pouring it on and drawing blood that sprays the mat as he beats Durden down. Silva continues landing as Tognoni asks for Durden to fight back, and when Durden’s arms go limp, he intervenes.
This is a crazy comeback for Silva, who turns the tables with just one punch and may have performed some unauthorized dental work on the soon-to-be-unranked contender. This sport never fails to surprise, and no fighter is ever totally safe while the cage door is locked and both competitors are still in the fight.

The Official Result
Bruno Silva def. Cody Durden R2 2:58 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Angelo picks Cody Durden because his aggressive wrestling pace will be too much for Bruno Silva, leading to a close decision. He notes that Silva has power and could land a knockout, but Durden's chin is a concern. He does not mention a bet, but is confident in the pick.

"I think the wrestling pace is going to be too much I think Cody squeezes out a close decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Cody picks Bruno Silva, highlighting his striking advantage and the fact that he accepted the fight before Durden, indicating confidence from training together. He notes Silva's defensive wrestling is solid and that Durden will struggle to take him down. He also mentions Silva's submission win over Tyson Nam as impressive.

"I got Bruno Silva man so that's that's the pick for me on this one."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Daniel Vreeland picks his friend Cody Durden, citing Durden's superior wrestling, volume, and training with Pantoja. He acknowledges Bruno's explosive power and opportunistic submissions but believes Durden will outwork him everywhere. Vreeland warns against underestimating Durden's standup and submission defense.

"I think Cody outworks this guy um and everywhere too like on the feet I think he's gonna out volume him and when he decides to mix in his takedowns as long as you know he doesn't get caught in …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Silva is a +100 underdog. He has a slick boxing approach and BJJ black belt, and his takedown defense and ability to work back to his feet should frustrate Durden. Durden will put himself in danger with his wrestling, and Silva can capitalize with a submission or TKO. Silva's inactivity (16 months) is a concern, but his skills should be enough to get the win.

submission
"I'm going to call Bruno Silva Club in sub as I think that deran will put himself into too much danger and I think Silva is dangerous enough to eventually find that big shot and put Duran away"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Paul also picks Bruno Silva, agreeing with Cody's points about Silva's striking and the familiarity from training. He thinks Silva has an advantage on the feet and that Durden will be in trouble if he tries to grapple. He also notes the submission prop as a possibility.

"Bruno Silva is also the pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Cody Durden

The MMA Guru picks Cody Durden, trusting in his activity. He notes Bruno Silva has been inactive, fighting only once since 2021, while Durden has been consistently fighting. He highlights Durden's wins over Jake Hadley and Charles Johnson, and believes Durden is more disciplined and focused. He also mentions Durden is bigger for the division.

"I'm going to trust in the activity as I said Bruno Silva's been a little bit out of the game recently"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Angelo picks Allan Nascimento, but is hesitant. He notes Nascimento's jiu-jitsu is excellent but his takedowns are poor, so he relies on being taken down to sweep. He thinks Cody Durden's wrestling and cardio have declined, and he gets tired. However, he worries that if Durden doesn't wrestle, Nascimento won't finish on the feet, leading to a low-scoring fight. He may avoid it in DFS.

"I think Alan wins this fight. I think Alan could potentially finish this new version of Cody Durden, but I'm... probably going to avoid it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Big Brady picks Allan Nascimento, noting Cody Durden is on short notice, 34 years old, and has taken a ton of damage in recent fights. He highlights Nascimento's size, length, and excellent grappling. He believes once the fight hits the ground, Nascimento will have a huge advantage and predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission, minus 300 favorite
"I like Nasnto here. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Connor also picks Nascimento, noting that Durden is super vulnerable on defense and aggressive to a fault. He thinks Nascimento's submission game is dangerous enough to catch Durden, but he wouldn't be surprised if Durden rides out a win on top. He mentions Durden's bigger signature wins but still leans Nascimento.

"I think I'll take Nascimento and one thing I do know about him is that he's durable."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Nascimento's BJJ will get Durden into bad spots and he will eventually pull off a submission. The host's favorite spot is the under 2.5 rounds at even money.

under 2.5 rounds at even money
"His BJJ should help him get Duran into some bad spots and from there I expect Nasameto to eventually pull off a submission. Although my favorite spot in this fight would probably be the under two and a half at even money."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

The MMA Guru picks Allan Nascimento, noting his size advantage at catchweight and superior grappling. He compares Nascimento's dominant grappling against Jafel Filho to Cody Durden's struggles against Jake Hadley. He worries about Durden taking the fight on short notice and predicts Nascimento wins by decision or submission in the second or third round.

submission in the second or third round
"I'm going to say that Allan Nascimento gets this one done. Another thing to mention here as well, Allan Nascimento out-grappled Jafel Filho round after round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Zane picks Nascimento to catch a submission, noting that Durden sells out so hard on offense that he makes himself vulnerable to submissions. He acknowledges that if Nascimento doesn't submit him, Durden could grind out a win. He mentions Nascimento's durability and solid submission game.

submission
"I'm thinking to take Nascimento to catch sub but like you know if he doesn't this could be a very scrappy hard fought fight."