UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov Next Fight
Age 29
Height 5' 4"
Reach 65"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 39
Height 5' 4"
Reach 68"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Natália Silva
4.81 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
2.36 SApM
66.0% Str. Def.
0.43 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
90.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Viviane Araújo
3.84 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.83 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.72 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Natália Silva
Moneyline
FanDuel -320
KO/TKO
FanDuel +550
Submission
FanDuel +650
Decision
BetRivers -124
Viviane Araújo
Moneyline
Caesars +280
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1600
Submission
BetMGM +1800
Decision
BetRivers +460
Natália Silva - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natália Silva 0 51 of 133 38% 63 of 147 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
Rose Namajunas 0 26 of 94 27% 46 of 119 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natália Silva 0 15 of 44 34% 15 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 13 of 39 33% 13 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Natália Silva 0 8 of 27 29% 15 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 18 27% 25 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:09
3 Natália Silva 0 28 of 62 45% 33 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Rose Namajunas 0 8 of 37 21% 8 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natália Silva 51 of 133 38% 25 of 95 8 of 14 18 of 24 50 of 132 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 26 of 94 27% 11 of 64 3 of 13 12 of 17 26 of 92 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natália Silva 15 of 44 34% 10 of 32 1 of 3 4 of 9 15 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 13 of 39 33% 4 of 22 1 of 6 8 of 11 13 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Natália Silva 8 of 27 29% 4 of 22 0 of 1 4 of 4 8 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 5 of 18 27% 3 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Natália Silva 28 of 62 45% 11 of 41 7 of 10 10 of 11 27 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 8 of 37 21% 4 of 26 1 of 6 3 of 5 8 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Angelo picks Natália Silva, calling her faster, cleaner, and a better athlete. He praises her footwork and timing. He acknowledges Rose Namajunas's experience and fight IQ but believes Silva's youth and speed will prevail. He suggests over 2.5 rounds as a likely lock.

I think over two and a half is likely the lock of the card.
"I'm going to go with the younger, faster, better athlete here, and I think that is Natalya Silva."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Big Brady believes Silva is one of the best flyweights, with elite takedown defense (92%) and great striking volume and power. He thinks Rose will struggle similar to her fight with Fiorot, and Silva will piece her up over 15 minutes for a dominant decision win.

Silva by decision
"I think Silva's going to kind of kind of piece her up over the course of 15 minutes. I think it's going to be a pretty frustrating fight for Rose."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Cody confidently picks Natália Silva, citing her 92% takedown defense and striking volume. He believes Rose Namajunas struggles at 125 pounds and won't be able to secure takedowns. Cody expects Silva to win a unanimous decision, outworking Rose on the feet.

"I do I do have Silva to get the job done by unanimous decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Connor also picks Silva, agreeing that Rose Namajunas has not adapted well to flyweight. He notes that Rose's power and speed have diminished, and that she now has to outwork opponents—a style she never excelled at. Connor points out that Silva is faster, hits harder, and throws more, and that Rose's best chance (wrestling) is untested against Silva. He believes Silva's dynamism will be too much for Rose to handle.

Silva opened at -150, now -350; Namajunas opened at +130, now +285. Connor says the odds seem reasonable.
"I think it's a good matchup. I do over feel that I have to pick Silva."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Daniel Vreeland picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He praises Silva's confidence, well-rounded game, and impressive wins over former champions. He notes that Silva is younger, hungrier, and has speed that matches Namajunas. Vreeland believes Silva will beat Namajunas decisively and earn a title shot against Valentina Shevchenko.

"I'm calling a 3027 decision by Natalya Silva in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Natália Silva

James is confident in Silva, noting her superior footwork neutralizes Namajunas's best asset. He expects Silva to win via decision, possibly hurting Namajunas with kicks but not finishing her. He mentions Silva's taekwondo background and that she has cashed for him multiple times.

"Natalia Silva is literally taking away Rose's Namunis' best asset and attribute in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The host leans towards Silva by decision, praising her distance management and blitzing style. However, he finds the -410 line too wide and believes Rose Namajunas is live as a plus-310 underdog. He notes Namajunas's experience, improved grappling, and ability to counter mobile strikers. He suggests the over 2.5 rounds is a no-brainer and recommends betting on Namajunas for value.

Over 2.5 rounds, Namajunas moneyline recommended for betting
"minus 410 Silva is whack. That is way too far out of whack. I I am gonna lean her in terms of a prediction. Obviously, over two and a half would be a no-brainer here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Silva's speed and combination punching. He doubts Rose can get the wrestling going and believes Silva's quickness will overwhelm her. Paul sees a decision win for Silva, noting that a knockout prop is not worth the price.

"I think it just really comes down to speed. I don't know if Rose is going to be able to get the wrestling going. And on the feet, there's really nobody quicker um men or woman really out there than …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Natália Silva

The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva, praising her kicking game and ability to fight off the back foot. He notes that Rose Namajunas often leaves fights close and lacks offensive grappling at flyweight. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27.

decision, 30-27
"Natalyia Silva is going to get this one done by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Zane picks Natália Silva confidently, highlighting her incredible speed and high output. He notes that Silva's bad defensive habits (chin in the air) are mitigated by her speed and ability to counter, and that she has hurt every opponent she's faced. Zane argues that Rose Namajunas has lost power and speed at flyweight, and that she can no longer rely on fight-changing shots. He believes Silva's volume and pace will overwhelm Rose over three rounds.

Silva opened at -150, now -350; Namajunas opened at +130, now +285. Zane says the odds seem reasonable.
"I am going to be picking Natalia Silva. She is the coming woman in this division."
WIN vs Alexa Grasso
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexa Grasso 0 45 of 139 32% 54 of 149 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:40
Natália Silva 0 65 of 164 39% 74 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexa Grasso 0 11 of 36 30% 12 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Natália Silva 0 16 of 48 33% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexa Grasso 0 19 of 51 37% 19 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Natália Silva 0 21 of 56 37% 21 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexa Grasso 0 15 of 52 28% 23 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Natália Silva 0 28 of 60 46% 29 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexa Grasso 45 of 139 32% 28 of 101 5 of 15 12 of 23 43 of 136 2 of 3 0 of 0
Natália Silva 65 of 164 39% 42 of 137 9 of 11 14 of 16 64 of 162 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexa Grasso 11 of 36 30% 7 of 25 0 of 2 4 of 9 10 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Natália Silva 16 of 48 33% 6 of 36 3 of 3 7 of 9 16 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexa Grasso 19 of 51 37% 13 of 41 3 of 4 3 of 6 19 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Natália Silva 21 of 56 37% 17 of 51 0 of 1 4 of 4 21 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexa Grasso 15 of 52 28% 8 of 35 2 of 9 5 of 8 14 of 50 1 of 2 0 of 0
Natália Silva 28 of 60 46% 19 of 50 6 of 7 3 of 3 27 of 58 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Angelo picks Natália Silva confidently, calling her the future of the division. He notes Alexa Grasso is a former champion who never defended her belt and has struggled. He believes Silva's speed, accuracy, and mobility will give Grasso trouble finding her range. He suggests parlaying Silva with other favorite women on the card, as he thinks the women's fights provide stability.

Considering parlay with other favorite women
"Natalya is going to be too much here. She's fast, she's clean, she's accurate, she's mobile. I think Alexa has a hard time finding her range. I think Natalya wins this fight pretty straightforwardly."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Big Brady is confident in Natália Silva, noting she is younger, in her prime, and a better striker. He questions Alexa Grasso's form after a poor performance against Valentina Shevchenko, possibly due to injury. He thinks Silva can win by decision and may even mix in takedowns. He doesn't love the -220 price but believes Silva wins.

"I like Silva to win this fight. I like her to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Connor picks Natália Silva, agreeing with Zane that Silva's speed and mobility will be too much for Grasso. He notes that Grasso's game is rudimentary and she tends to have the same exchanges repeatedly, while Silva can fight her way out of corners and land bigger shots. Connor believes Silva's athleticism and dynamic striking will earn her a win and a title shot.

"I kind of think I might have to pick Natalia Silva here. Oh, yeah... I think this is a... fast powerful athlete with a very rudimentary game... and she was not nearly as dynamic as as Natalia Silva."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The host believes Silva's style—perpetual movement, lateral movement, range management, and blitzing attacks—will frustrate Grasso and cause her to walk into big shots. He expects Silva to win clearly on the scorecards.

"I think Silva's style will be too much for Grao to handle here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva, calling her 'the truth' of the division. He praises her striking, takedown defense, and ability to piece up opponents like Jasudavicius. He thinks Grasso's linear style and high guard are tailor-made for Silva's front kicks and lateral movement. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27, but notes the UFC may favor Grasso for the Guadalajara card.

decision
"I'm going with Natalyia Silva. I think she's the truth. I think Natalyia Silva is the truth of the women's flyweight division."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Zane picks Natália Silva, arguing that her speed, mobility, and long-range output will outwork Grasso. He notes that Grasso tends to be stationary when throwing and will struggle to deal with Silva's constant movement and kicking game. Zane points to Grasso's fight with Vivi Araujo as a blueprint for how a similar athlete can give her trouble, and believes Silva is more dynamic than Araujo.

"I kind of think I might have to pick Natalia Silva here. Oh, yeah... I think this is a... fast powerful athlete with a very rudimentary game... and she was not nearly as dynamic as as Natalia Silva."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natália Silva 0 50 of 140 35% 62 of 153 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:11
Jéssica Andrade 0 117 of 208 56% 119 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natália Silva 0 24 of 56 42% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Jéssica Andrade 0 33 of 74 44% 33 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Natália Silva 0 11 of 37 29% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
Jéssica Andrade 0 37 of 69 53% 37 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
3 Natália Silva 0 15 of 47 31% 21 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:12
Jéssica Andrade 0 47 of 65 72% 49 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natália Silva 50 of 140 35% 33 of 114 13 of 20 4 of 6 48 of 136 2 of 4 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 117 of 208 56% 67 of 151 38 of 45 12 of 12 106 of 197 9 of 9 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natália Silva 24 of 56 42% 16 of 46 7 of 9 1 of 1 23 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 33 of 74 44% 14 of 53 12 of 14 7 of 7 32 of 73 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Natália Silva 11 of 37 29% 9 of 31 1 of 4 1 of 2 10 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 37 of 69 53% 20 of 47 15 of 20 2 of 2 32 of 64 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Natália Silva 15 of 47 31% 8 of 37 5 of 7 2 of 3 15 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 47 of 65 72% 33 of 51 11 of 11 3 of 3 42 of 60 3 of 3 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Angelo picks Natália Silva because she is very well-rounded, technical, and has power that lasts into the third round. He believes she is the better fighter and as long as she doesn't let Andrade bully her, she should win. He notes that Silva has beaten prospects and veterans alike.

"Natalya Silva should win this fight she is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Big Brady picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He is high on Silva, noting her impressive performances and striking. He acknowledges Andrade is a tough test and has revived her career, but believes Silva is the much better striker and may even drop Andrade. Brady thinks the odds are a bit disrespectful to Andrade but still favors Silva.

"I like Silva here to win this fight I'll take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Cody believes Silva's size, speed, and counter-punching will be too much for Andrade, who struggles at 125 lbs against longer fighters. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal issues but respects her toughness. He thinks Silva can win by decision or knockout, but does not like the -300 price. He picks Silva but is not betting the moneyline.

"I feel like Natalia Silva strikes her 2928 natala Silva could knock her out in theory as well"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Daniel is high on Natália Silva, calling her one of the best prospects in women's MMA. He praises her movement, takedown defense, athleticism, and the fact that she paid her dues on the regional scene. He thinks Andrade's charging-forward style is a bad matchup against Silva's speed and accuracy. While he respects Andrade's evolution, he believes Silva is catching her at a great time and picks her to win.

"I think that stylistically speaking charging forward against Natalia with her movement with her accuracy with her speed sounds like a bad idea man... I'm picking her to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Silva is a technical striker with excellent lateral movement and accuracy. Andrade is a power puncher who struggles with fighters who stick and move. Silva can keep the fight at range and potentially land a knockout. The pick is Silva by decision, with a sprinkle on Silva by KO if odds are favorable.

Silva by KO at +400 or better (sprinkle)
"my official prediction will be Silva by decision but I might sprinkle a little bit on that Silva KO prop if it's anything better than plus 400."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Paul sees Silva as faster, bigger, and more technical, with a counter-striking style that can neutralize Andrade's blitzes. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal distractions (divorce, manager issues) but acknowledges her toughness. He believes Silva can win by decision or even knockout, but is wary of the -300 price. He leans Silva but does not love the moneyline.

"I feel like Natalia Silva wins it's the CF do model of the nature right women's MMA you want me to bet minus 300 against a former Champion the money line I really don't like"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva over Jéssica Andrade. He praises Silva's range control and ability to fight on the back foot. He notes Andrade has been outstruck by lesser fighters like Erin Blanchfield and struggles at flyweight. He highlights Silva's 11-fight win streak and her dominant UFC wins over Viviane Araujo, Andrea Lee, and others. He believes Silva is young (27) and still improving.

"I'm going to go with Natalia Silva... she's really good on the back foot... I reckon she'll win the fight"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natália Silva 0 26 of 67 38% 63 of 110 1 of 9 11% 0 0 6:01
Viviane Araújo 0 38 of 128 29% 65 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natália Silva 0 8 of 15 53% 36 of 43 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:31
Viviane Araújo 0 8 of 32 25% 16 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Natália Silva 0 9 of 21 42% 18 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:25
Viviane Araújo 0 12 of 38 31% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Natália Silva 0 9 of 31 29% 9 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:05
Viviane Araújo 0 18 of 58 31% 27 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natália Silva 26 of 67 38% 20 of 58 1 of 3 5 of 6 25 of 66 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 38 of 128 29% 24 of 103 8 of 16 6 of 9 38 of 128 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natália Silva 8 of 15 53% 6 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 8 of 32 25% 5 of 26 2 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Natália Silva 9 of 21 42% 6 of 18 1 of 1 2 of 2 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 12 of 38 31% 10 of 33 1 of 2 1 of 3 12 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Natália Silva 9 of 31 29% 8 of 27 0 of 2 1 of 2 9 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 18 of 58 31% 9 of 44 5 of 9 4 of 5 18 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Angelo is very high on Natália Silva, calling her a potential top-five fighter. He notes her footwork, takedown defense (92%), and power that carries into later rounds. He believes she will outclass Viviane Araújo everywhere and get the win.

"I think Natalia Silva absolutely gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Big Brady picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He notes that Silva is 10 years younger and has better cardio, while Araújo slows down significantly as fights go on. He expects the fight to be competitive early, possibly with Araújo trying to wrestle, but Silva will take over as the fight progresses and win a decision.

decision
"I kind of see it being somewhat competitive early on ... but as the fight goes on I do like Silva to take over do the better work have the better cardio and win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Cody picks Silva, praising her evolution and athleticism. He notes Araújo's cardio issues and inconsistency, expecting Silva to win a decision or possibly get a late finish. He likes Silva by decision prop to avoid the heavy moneyline.

Natália Silva by decision
"I went with the Natalia Silva by decision prop simply because I think she wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Silva has looked unstoppable in the UFC with her lateral movement, kicks from distance, and submissions off her back. Araújo is a crisp striker early but fades as fights go on, and Silva's volume and output should allow her to win a decision. The host suggests playing Silva live if Araújo wins round one, or using her as a parlay piece.

Live betting opportunity: if Araújo wins round one, Silva could be available at -200 to -150. Also mentioned as a parlay piece.
"I think it's ultimately going to be the decision fighting style of Silva her output and volume heavy style which will allow her to go out there and get the decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Paul picks Silva by KO, taking a small stab at +540. He notes Silva's power and Araújo's toughness but thinks Silva's evolving skill set can get the finish. He acknowledges the moneyline is too steep.

Natália Silva by KO +540
"I took Natalia Silva by KO plus 540"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva over Viviane Araújo, despite a bizarre tangent about fighters' relationship status. He acknowledges Araújo is good but believes Silva has the skill level to make something happen. He notes Silva's wins over Jasmine Jasudavicius, Mayra Bueno Silva, and Andrea Lee, and thinks Araújo may be on the downswing. He predicts a decision win for Silva.

by decision
"I am still going to go Natalia Silva... I think Natalia Silva is actually the skill level to make something happen here... I'm going to bet she's on the down swing and this is where Natalia Silva can get one …"
WIN vs Andrea Lee
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natália Silva 0 43 of 125 34% 43 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 70 of 174 40% 70 of 174 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natália Silva 0 14 of 49 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 26 of 62 41% 26 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Natália Silva 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 22 of 50 44% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Natália Silva 0 11 of 34 32% 11 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 22 of 62 35% 22 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natália Silva 43 of 125 34% 12 of 74 11 of 23 20 of 28 43 of 125 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 70 of 174 40% 34 of 111 17 of 43 19 of 20 70 of 174 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natália Silva 14 of 49 28% 4 of 29 3 of 7 7 of 13 14 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 26 of 62 41% 13 of 38 6 of 16 7 of 8 26 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Natália Silva 18 of 42 42% 5 of 24 6 of 10 7 of 8 18 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 22 of 50 44% 8 of 29 9 of 16 5 of 5 22 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Natália Silva 11 of 34 32% 3 of 21 2 of 6 6 of 7 11 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 22 of 62 35% 13 of 44 2 of 11 7 of 7 22 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Angelo is confident in Natália Silva, citing her well-rounded skills, power that carries into later rounds, and ability to turn fights into brawls. He notes that Andrea Lee is tough and technical but believes Silva is the better striker and grappler, and that Lee won't be able to take her down. He has Silva in a parlay and also suggests betting the under on Andrea Lee's takedown line.

Parlay with Andre Petroski at -133; under on Andrea Lee takedowns if line is high
"This should be a Natalia Silva play all day long... I am confident enough in Natalia Silva to have a one unit parlay."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Big Brady leans toward Natália Silva despite the wide line, citing her power advantage and elite takedown defense. He notes Andrea Lee has good volume and underrated skills, but Silva lands harder shots and may mix in takedowns. He expects the fight to go the distance with Silva winning by decision, similar to Lee's fight with Mayra Bueno Silva.

fight goes to decision
"I think this fight could be a lot closer than this line does indicate... I do have to lean to the Natalia Silverside... I think this fight does Go the Distance"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Cody sees Silva as the complete package with good striking and fast hands, while Lee is slowing down and has a wonky training situation. He expects Silva to piece up Lee, but warns that women's MMA is unpredictable.

"I would think Natalie's still a big favorite women's MMA I would say don't do it I would take Natali Silva"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Daniel Levi picks Andrea Lee as an underdog, citing her experience and savvy. He notes that Silva is small for the weight class and has shown weaknesses when taken down, as Lee's grappling is better than Silva's previous opponents. Levi thinks Lee can win via grappling and that the plus money is valuable. He also likes the plus 3.5 spread. However, he acknowledges Silva is the real deal and is not going heavy on the bet.

Lee plus 3.5 spread; Lee by submission or decision
"I like her not gonna go crazy on it because I know Silva's the real deal but I'm gonna have some money on Lee"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Natália Silva

Lucrative James picks Natália Silva to win, citing her excellent distance management and takedown defense. He expects Silva to dictate the striking range and potentially get takedowns of her own, as Andrea Lee has historically lost when taken down and controlled on the ground. He sees the fight going to a decision with Silva edging it out 29-28 or 30-27.

"I do think she's gonna win I am picking Natalia silver to win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Silva's movement and striking accuracy should be too much for Lee. She lands significant strikes from distance and has shown finishing ability. However, the moneyline is too wide given Lee's experience and potential grappling success. Prefer Silva by decision prop as a better value.

Silva by decision
"I lean Silva on this fight and I'm not too high on the chalky price tag... I would rather hone in on that Natalia Silva by decision line more than her actual money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The MMA Guru confidently picks Natália Silva, calling her one of the rare good female MMA prospects. He highlights her stunning striking performances and dominant wins over Jasmine Jasudavicius and Tereza Bledá. He notes Andrea Lee has taken a lot of damage and is 34, while Silva is 26 and improving. He expects Silva to win by decision but thinks Lee will make it tough.

decision win 29-28
"I'm going with Natalia Silva getting this one done by decision win 29-28"
TKO (punches and head kick) R1 2:58 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natália Silva 1 20 of 45 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Victoria Leonardo 0 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natália Silva 1 20 of 45 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Victoria Leonardo 0 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natália Silva 20 of 45 44% 16 of 41 2 of 2 2 of 2 20 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 1
Victoria Leonardo 7 of 18 38% 6 of 14 0 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natália Silva 20 of 45 44% 16 of 41 2 of 2 2 of 2 20 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 1
Victoria Leonardo 7 of 18 38% 6 of 14 0 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Angelo is very confident in Natália Silva winning, citing her superior striking, grappling, power, and athleticism. He acknowledges Victoria Leonardo may be the better wrestler and could get takedowns, but believes Silva will work back up and potentially get a finish. However, he is undecided on betting due to the juiced line and past burns on women's MMA favorites.

Considering inside the distance decision no action if props drop at a good price
"Natalia is a very very real Prospect I like her to win I'm very confident in her undecided on bets though because that is a very Juiced line"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Big Brady picks Natália Silva to knock out Victoria Leonardo in the second round. He is very confident, noting Silva's striking is elite and her takedown defense has improved significantly. He sees Leonardo's only path to success being clinch control, but doubts she can get takedowns. He expects Silva to dominate on the feet and finish Leonardo, who has been finished in all her losses.

knockout in round 2
"I think Silva knocks out Victoria Leonardo in the second round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Cody is very confident in Silva, citing her impressive debut and well-rounded skills. He notes Leonardo's poor durability and record. He expects Silva to win easily, possibly by finish.

"I'm definitely picking Natalia Silva."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Natália Silva

Connor is also very confident in Silva, agreeing that she is much better technically, harder hitting, and more dynamic everywhere. He notes that Leonardo is slow and that Silva will dominate. Connor mentions that Silva has lost fights early in her career but has used that experience to hit the UFC very ready.

"I think she's just going to absolutely flex on Leonardo. If she doesn't then that is only says bad things about Natalia Silva."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Daniel Levi is extremely confident in Natália Silva, calling her a future star. He praises her striking, takedown defense, and highlight-reel potential (spinning back kick KO). He views Victoria Leonardo as a stepping stone and expects Silva to make a statement. He notes Leonardo has been susceptible to high kicks in the past. He says Silva is ready for the top 15 and this is a showcase fight.

Silva by finish (likely KO)
"Natalia this is yours baby girl so I hope you go out there and show us what you're capable of"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The host is confident Natália Silva will win, but notes the -1000 moneyline is prohibitive. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop, expecting Silva's speed and power to be too much for Leonardo. He thinks Silva will find a finish, possibly by knockout or club and sub, as Leonardo slows down and eats damage.

under 2.5 rounds, Silva inside the distance
"the best way to probably approach this is the under two and a half you know the speed and stinging power of Silva on the feed might end up being too much for Victoria Leonardo"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Paul also picks Silva, but notes the heavy price. He thinks Silva is much more skilled and should win, but acknowledges the risk of betting such a short favorite. He takes a prop bet on Silva inside the distance.

inside the distance
"I'm gonna pick Natalia Silva to win."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The MMA Guru calls this the lock of the card, praising Natália Silva's well-rounded game including submissions off her back and excellent striking. He notes she schooled Jasmine Jasudavicius and finished Teresa Blader with a spinning back kick. He dismisses Victoria Leonardo as mediocre in every realm, despite her win over Mandy Böhm. He expects Silva to win decisively.

"I'm gonna go with Natalia Silva of course this is the common sense pick of the card this is the lock of the card"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Natália Silva

Zane is very confident in Silva, describing her as aggressive, fast, and technical with good wrestling and grappling. He notes that Leonardo is terribly slow and that Silva will absolutely flex on her. Zane believes Silva is a borderline finished product and will crush Leonardo.

"Natalia Silva rocks. Yeah. She's going to, we're going to see some things further exposed here at some point, but like she's aggressive. She's fast. She puts her strikes together very well."
WIN vs Tereza Bledá
TKO (spinning back kick and punches) R3 1:27 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natália Silva 1 45 of 72 62% 62 of 89 0 of 3 0% 0 1 2:13
Tereza Bledá 0 18 of 47 38% 25 of 55 1 of 7 14% 2 0 4:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natália Silva 0 6 of 9 66% 9 of 12 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:01
Tereza Bledá 0 4 of 7 57% 11 of 14 0 of 3 0% 2 0 2:19
2 Natália Silva 0 24 of 38 63% 37 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Tereza Bledá 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 23 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:27
3 Natália Silva 1 15 of 25 60% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Tereza Bledá 0 4 of 18 22% 4 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natália Silva 45 of 72 62% 26 of 50 7 of 9 12 of 13 41 of 65 1 of 3 3 of 4
Tereza Bledá 18 of 47 38% 8 of 33 7 of 10 3 of 4 13 of 40 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natália Silva 6 of 9 66% 2 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 7 0 of 2 0 of 0
Tereza Bledá 4 of 7 57% 1 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Natália Silva 24 of 38 63% 14 of 27 3 of 4 7 of 7 23 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tereza Bledá 10 of 22 45% 5 of 16 3 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Natália Silva 15 of 25 60% 10 of 19 3 of 3 2 of 3 12 of 21 0 of 0 3 of 4
Tereza Bledá 4 of 18 22% 2 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natália Silva 0 31 of 101 30% 40 of 116 0 of 6 0% 0 0 3:37
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 96 of 185 51% 120 of 213 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natália Silva 0 12 of 33 36% 16 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:51
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 27 of 53 50% 44 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
2 Natália Silva 0 10 of 34 29% 14 of 38 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:48
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 41 of 78 52% 48 of 88 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:45
3 Natália Silva 0 9 of 34 26% 10 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:58
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 28 of 54 51% 28 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natália Silva 31 of 101 30% 12 of 72 18 of 27 1 of 2 27 of 95 4 of 6 0 of 0
Jasmine Jasudavicius 96 of 185 51% 55 of 137 18 of 24 23 of 24 85 of 169 1 of 1 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natália Silva 12 of 33 36% 5 of 24 6 of 8 1 of 1 9 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jasmine Jasudavicius 27 of 53 50% 9 of 32 9 of 11 9 of 10 26 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 3
2 Natália Silva 10 of 34 29% 4 of 24 6 of 9 0 of 1 10 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jasmine Jasudavicius 41 of 78 52% 30 of 65 5 of 7 6 of 6 31 of 66 0 of 0 10 of 12
3 Natália Silva 9 of 34 26% 3 of 24 6 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jasmine Jasudavicius 28 of 54 51% 16 of 40 4 of 6 8 of 8 28 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Natalia Cristina da Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jasudavicius (-240), Silva (+195)

Round 1
Representatives of Canada in Jasudavicius (7-1, 1-0 UFC) and Brazil in Silva (12-5-1, 0-0 UFC) will battle it out for international supremacy at the flyweight division next. While Jasudavicius made a splash by handling Kay Hansen in her UFC debut, Silva will be making her first Octagon appearance. The preliminary headliner will receive oversight from referee Jacob Montalvo, and the ladies do not touch gloves in front of him. Jasudavicius claims the center of the cage, and Silva is happy to allow this as she picks and pokes at Jasudavicius with low kicks and long jabs. Silva just misses a head kick, and she scores three punches that knock Jasudavicius off-balance. The Brazilian gets clinched up after delivering the blows, with Jasudavicius stung from the strikes, and Jasudavicius starts going after a body lock takedown. The Canadian gets her wits about her as she hangs on in the clinch, ands he hooks the legs and hunts for an inside trip, but she cannot land it. Silva breaks the grip and escapes, but she absorbs a quick elbow on the way out. Silva kicks the side, and when Jasudavicius advances towards her, she pushes off with the ball of her foot on her foe’s solar plexus. Silva scores two punches and just comes up short with a head kick, and she takes a flush one-two on the way back. Silva sneaks a high kick up that slaps Jasudavicius in the face, and she kicks low and high in rapid succession as Jasudavicius is forced to defend. Silva leans back when Jasudavicius bears down on her, and she scores an effective kick and slips the punch counters. Jasudavicius dives forward for takedown, and she wraps her arms around Silva’s waist but cannot wrench her down. They jockey for position when tied up, and Jasudavicius’ efforts to ground her opponent are unsuccessful. The horn sounds when Jasudavicius gets off a pair of knees on the inside.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 2
Silva strikes first to start off the second round with a push kick, and she marks Jasudavicius’ face up with three clean left hands. When Jasudavicius tries to reply, Silva cracks her with a left hand. Jasudavicius continues moving towards her, but Silva is teeing off on her and she cannot land anything back. Jasudavicius leans in to clinch, and she goes to set up a body lock. Silva deftly reverses Jasudavicius with a high-amplitude throw, and she stacks Jasudavicius up when Jasudavicius hunts for a leg lock upon landing on her back. Silva uses the fence behind her to keep on her feet, even when Jasudavicius powers into a double-leg entry. Silva splits off and fires off a pair of punches, and she misses a spinning wheel kick. Silva slaps her shin on Jasudavicius’ calf, and she remains light on her feet when tossing out a few punches. Silva flusters her adversary with punch bursts and kicks to mix them up, and Jasudavicius cannot reach her with anything of note. Jasudavicius dives low for a single, and Silva stands her all the way back up. Jasudavicius lifts Silva’s leg in the air, and Silva reverses her and tosses her to the mat. The Brazilian slams Jasudavicius with several brutal elbows, and Montalvo takes a hard look at this barrage of unanswered blows. Jasudavicius scrambles well enough to get to her knees, and Silva slams her down again. Silva lets her back up so that she can spin with a wheel kick, and it rebounds off Jasudavicius’ arm. Silva works her foe over with punches high and kicks low, and she slaps Jasudavicius in the face with two speedy kicks. Jasudavicius blitzes in to get off a single right hand, but it is one-and-done as Silva escapes out. Jasudavicius gives chase, and Silva is on her bike and out of harm’s way. Silva spins with a kick to the ribcage, and she dodges a flying knee to respond. Silva rings Jasudavicius’ bell with two hooks, and the horn sounds while Jasudavicius tries to recover.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 3
The flyweights rush out of their corners, with Jasudavicius advancing again as Silva coolly slides away laterally. Silva pushes out a few jabs, and Jasudavicius walks through them to trap Silva against the fence. Silva does not get slowed or absorb any noteworthy strikes, all while she pieces Jasudavicius up with punches and kicks. The kicks go to the calf or the high guard, and she is able to lean back with her hands down as Jasudavicius marches her down. Jasudavicius keeps chasing straight after Silva, but Silva is not there when Jasudavicius swings at her. Silva chips away at the lead leg, and one kick gets caught by the Canadian. Silva stands her back up after stumbling briefly, and Jasudavicius pushes her into the wire. Silva splits off and tosses out a high kick, and Jasudavicius barely blocks it in the nick of time. Silva dances out of the way when not peppering Jasudavicius with low kicks, and Jasudavicius is not fazed but slowing down to a degree. Silva is easily able to scamper away when Jasudavicius reaches her, and she sticks Jasudavicius with a few punches only to dart away. Silva sinks her shin into the side of her opponent, and she smoothly dodges the counter. Jasudavicius tries hard to grab Silva and glom on to her, and she decides to sprint forward and jump in the air so that she can close the distance and get her hands on the Brazilian. Silva fights off the single, and she breaks away before an elbow can crack her. The newcomer scores a clean push kick on the jaw, and Jasudavicius is wearing it. Silva slows Jasudavicius down more with her own tie-up, and when there is no takedown for her there, she gives up on it and backs away to loose a spinning back fist. With a couple seconds left, Jasudavicius leaps in the air with a strike, but Silva is able to somehow counter her midair with a jumping hammerfist to drop Jasudavicius to her knees in a furious collision. The final bell sounds right after they crash together.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva (30-27 Silva)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva (30-27 Silva)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva (30-27 Silva)

The Official Result
Natalia Cristina da Silva def. Jasmine Jasudavicius via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Angelo picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, citing her wrestling and ability to get takedowns. He notes Natália Silva's brawling style leaves her open to takedowns. He wishes Silva had a different debut matchup but believes Jasudavicius will avoid the brawl and secure takedowns.

"jasmine is the pick but natalya is dangerous and she absolutely lets her hands fly"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Big Brady picks Jasmine Jasudavicius to win by decision, but is hesitant due to her cardio issues. He notes Jasudavicius has a size advantage (height and reach) and improved wrestling, while Silva is smaller. He expects Jasudavicius to bank the first two rounds, though she tends to fade in the third.

decision
"I think jasmine wins this one and i think she wins it by decision as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Cody leans toward Jasudavicius due to her wrestling and striking advantage, but he's cautious because Silva is young and has potential. He notes Silva's limited tape and long layoff, but women's MMA is unpredictable. He calls it a dogger pass situation.

"i think it's probably a dogger pass situation at this price"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Daniel Levi picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, highlighting her wrestling background (Olympic medalist in Canada) and physicality. He believes she will take Natália Silva down and avoid Silva's armbar attempts from guard. Levi thinks Jasudavicius is still green but has the right style to grind out a unanimous decision. He is confident she wins as long as she doesn't get caught in an armbar.

expects unanimous decision; Silva's only path is armbar from guard
"i'm going to give it to uh jasmine jostovicius i'm gonna say unanimous decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Paul picks Silva as a dog, noting her youth and six-fight win streak. He thinks the price is attractive and women's MMA is volatile. He acknowledges limited tape but sees value in the underdog.

"for the purposes of this show i'm picking natalya silva"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

The MMA Guru picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, noting she is a better physical athlete with good takedown defense and her own takedowns. He believes Natália Silva is a decent prospect but not ready for this step up. He expects Jasudavicius to win a competitive 30-27 unanimous decision, using her clinch work and striking.

"i am going to be siding with jasmine jasouda vicious hero natalia silva... jasmine jazoovicius genuinely looks good at fighting and she's a lot more of a physical athlete"
Viviane Araújo - Fight History
LOSS vs Tracy Cortez
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 22 of 51 43% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:43
Tracy Cortez 0 65 of 103 63% 102 of 143 3 of 5 60% 1 1 8:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 5 of 13 38% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:43
Tracy Cortez 0 15 of 20 75% 23 of 28 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:52
2 Viviane Araújo 0 12 of 29 41% 17 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tracy Cortez 0 20 of 43 46% 25 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:15
3 Viviane Araújo 0 5 of 9 55% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tracy Cortez 0 30 of 40 75% 54 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 22 of 51 43% 16 of 45 3 of 3 3 of 3 19 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 65 of 103 63% 53 of 82 8 of 14 4 of 7 24 of 53 2 of 5 39 of 45
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 5 of 13 38% 3 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 15 of 20 75% 10 of 14 3 of 4 2 of 2 2 of 5 1 of 2 12 of 13
2 Viviane Araújo 12 of 29 41% 8 of 25 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 20 of 43 46% 15 of 33 4 of 7 1 of 3 15 of 36 1 of 3 4 of 4
3 Viviane Araújo 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 30 of 40 75% 28 of 35 1 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 23 of 28
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Angelo slightly picks Tracy Cortez because he expects her grappling to wear down Viviane Araújo as the fight goes on, given Araújo's cardio fades and she is 38 years old. He acknowledges that Araújo is the better striker and has good takedown defense, but thinks Cortez can grind out a win. He also suggests the over on the round line is a safe bet, noting that women's fights often go over.

Angelo says a round line over is probably the safest bet, and mentions that parlaying all women's fights for overs is a good strategy.
"I am going to slightly pick Tracy Cortez. A round line over is probably the safest bet here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Big Brady thinks Cortez is the better striker and younger, and expects the fight to take place at distance where Cortez will outland Araújo. He notes Araújo has been outlanded at distance in recent fights and is 38 years old. Brady believes Cortez can also mix in takedowns. However, he is surprised by the -230 line, thinking it's too wide, but still picks Cortez to win by decision.

Cortez wins by decision
"I got to go Cortez. Cortez to win this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

The host is leaning Cortez, believing her wrestling will break down Araújo and lead to dominant second and third rounds, winning on the scorecards.

win on scorecards
"I'm really leaning Cortez in this spot as I think her wrestling can really break out of Ujo down and this will look quite dominant for Cortez in these second and third rounds leading to her winning this fight on …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

The host picks Tracy Cortez but is hesitant, expecting a close competitive decision. He notes that Cortez has crisper boxing while Araújo is more well-rounded, and that the fight is likely to be a 29-28 decision. He is tempted by Araújo's underdog odds but ultimately goes with Cortez, believing the judges will favor her in a close fight.

decision
"I'm going to go with Tracy Cortez. I'm going to say if there's a close decision here, which a lot of women's MMA fights end up with, I don't see them not giving it to Tracy Cortez."
WIN vs Karine Silva
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 48 of 85 56% 105 of 152 3 of 3 100% 1 0 2:25
Karine Silva 0 58 of 132 43% 76 of 155 1 of 7 14% 1 0 3:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 17 of 30 56% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karine Silva 0 22 of 65 33% 22 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Viviane Araújo 0 14 of 25 56% 49 of 64 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:04
Karine Silva 0 11 of 15 73% 16 of 20 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:37
3 Viviane Araújo 0 17 of 30 56% 36 of 55 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:21
Karine Silva 0 25 of 52 48% 38 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 48 of 85 56% 34 of 70 4 of 5 10 of 10 41 of 76 1 of 1 6 of 8
Karine Silva 58 of 132 43% 26 of 83 10 of 19 22 of 30 45 of 117 11 of 13 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 17 of 30 56% 13 of 26 1 of 1 3 of 3 16 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Karine Silva 22 of 65 33% 10 of 43 1 of 6 11 of 16 21 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Viviane Araújo 14 of 25 56% 11 of 21 1 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 5 of 7
Karine Silva 11 of 15 73% 8 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 2 of 2 2 of 2
3 Viviane Araújo 17 of 30 56% 10 of 23 2 of 2 5 of 5 16 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 1
Karine Silva 25 of 52 48% 8 of 29 7 of 10 10 of 13 17 of 42 8 of 10 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-258), Araujo (+210)

Round 1
It’s a battle of momentum as the main card rails on, with Araujo (12-6, 6-5 UFC) struggling at the upper echelon of the flyweight division as of late. The same cannot be said for the younger Silva (18-4, 4-0 UFC), who has cruised through opposition with three subs in her four UFC wins to date. Referee Marc Goddard draws the charge for this 125-pound contest, and it kicks off as the ladies touch ‘em up. Silva marches forward behind a front kick to start, and she aims it a few more times to keep Araujo away from her. Silva uses it to try to close the distance and wrap up her opponent, but Araujo gets away. Silva slaps her with a leg kick, and a second is met with a one-two. Silva crashes the pocket and gets off a leg kick, and she whiffs with a huge overhand right. Araujo splits the guard with a right hand, and Silva pays it no mind and keeps plodding onward. Silva sticks out a jab, and Araujo puts three punches on her before sliding to the side. Silva crashes forward, and Araujo is able to wriggle away before getting clinched. Silva kicks at the front leg and is countered by her fellow countrywoman, and she keeps chasing until getting tagged with a straight right hand. Silva again shakes off the strong strike and trades a low kick with her foe. Araujo steps to the side and sinks in a right hand around the guard, and she stays away from a number of inaccurate kicks. Silva does reach her with a low kick, and the high kick that follows is easily blocked. Araujo moves from side to side, not falling into a pattern and easily shrugging off a Silva shot. Araujo rings her opponent’s bell with a one-two, and Silva does not slow with her constant kick approach. Silva gets off a left hand, and the swings that follow all go wide. Silva paws out with a big right hand, clubbing “Vivi” on the side of the dome. A second shakes Araujo up further, and Silva stalks her down and hits her a third time. Araujo strikes back, and is warned for outstretched fingers. The horn sounds as Silva rushes into attack, and they crash heads together when Goddard grabs them, resulting in a bloody nose for Araujo.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 2
Silva starts off the round as aggressive as ever, with her front kick immediately drawing more blood from Araujo’s nose. Araujo rushes into action, fighting behind several punch combinations that all connect before Silva can strike back. Araujo hammers the front leg with a kick, and Silva runs towards her and gets hold of her against the fencing. Araujo escapes before absorbing anything of note, but blood is trickling out of that nose quicker than before. Araujo backs Silva off with a one-two, and a second two-strike combo finds the mark as Silva rushes towards her. Silva blasts Araujo in the face with an overhand right, and Araujo backs up into the wall and has no way to escape the second that catches her cleanly. When Silva tries to use the close proximity to take the fight down, Araujo repeatedly grabs the fence to keep herself afloat. Silva sells out for a throw, and Araujo turns her around. Silva uses the body lock to lower Araujo to the floor, her own nose bloodied as well. Araujo gets busy off her back with punches, and she throws her legs up and grabs hold of an armbar. Araujo rolls to her stomach and flips Silva over, and she goes belly-down to almost complete the submission. Silva keeps pushing through it, turning the proper direction to survive the maneuver and reposition herself to side control. With Araujo’s nose busted, she gasps for air with her mouth open. Silva transitions her way to north-south position, and she wraps up a brabo choke when Araujo sits up. Silva rolls to her back to lock things up, and Araujo fights her arms and pushes off the knee to get some space. Araujo turns through it to get into north-south, and she considers wrapping up an armbar or another armlock. Araujo opens it up with several unblocked punches, ending the round sitting on Silva’s face but not in a fun way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 3
The Brazilians hug it out to begin the last round, with scores possibly all over the map. Silva marches forward and shoots in for a takedown with Araujo jabbing her, and the ensuing scramble results in Araujo winding up on top somehow. A bit of blood on both women plus fatigue equals strange positioning. Araujo bails on the position and backs off, allowing Silva to stand. Araujo backs off and lands a low kick and a right hand, and Silva jabs her back in the midsection. Araujo reaches out with a right hand over the top, and Silva’s responses are labored and flailing. Araujo catches a front kick and tosses Silva to her back, with Silva appearing to flop to her back in part due to exhaustion. Silva puts her hands behind her head, with Araujo kicking her legs until Goddard stands her up. Araujo leans back from a head kick to boot Silva in the ribs, and they trade kicks until Araujo drills her with an uppercut. Silva plods forward and absorbs a solid right hand, and she takes a step back and launches several front kicks that all come up short. Araujo kicks the front leg, and she catches a kick her direction and tosses Silva to the mat. Silva again needs Goddard to get between them and let her up, and the fans in the building do not approve of Silva’s strategy. Silva walks into punches and kicks, her face swelling up with a mouse growing on her forehead. Silva’s front kick is swatted away, and she flops to her back. Araujo tells her to stand back up, and she watches Silva’s labored punches soar past her. Silva uses them to get hold of Araujo, and she drives a knee into her jaw. Silva gloms onto her opponent in the clinch, with the occasional knee coming until Araujo head-and-arm throws her to the ground. Silva lands strangely with her head squished against the cage floor and wall, and she is held there until the strange fight closes. Judges may have their hands full here.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (30-27 Araujo)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (29-28 Araujo)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (29-28 Silva)

The Official Result
Viviane Araujo def. Karine Silva via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo picks Karine Silva, noting her powerful grappling and constant submission threats. He acknowledges Viviane Araújo is tough with good takedown defense, but believes Silva will get timely takedowns. He finds the -265 odds too steep to bet and is unsure about prop bets due to Silva's finishing rate.

Angelo says he will likely leave this fight on the table due to the high juice on Silva at -265, and is unsure about betting inside the distance.
"the pick is going to be Kini I think it's going to be a close one"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Big Brady picks Karine Silva, noting that Viviane Araújo is older and slowing down. He acknowledges Araújo's elite takedown defense and good striking volume, but believes Silva has more power and can get takedowns. He thinks Silva's cardio is better than Araújo's, who has slowed in many fights. He predicts a decision win for Silva, though he admits the line is too wide.

"I'll take Silva to win this fight and I'll take her to win this fight by by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Cody picks Karine Silva, citing her grappling advantage and ability to take down and neutralize opponents. He notes Araújo is 38 and has been taken down by lesser grapplers, but Silva's striking is not great and she may struggle to finish. Cody expects a decision win for Silva, possibly by submission if she gets the neck.

"I'll take killer Karin but it's bit of a deep price tag for me personally and I'm not like super over the moon confidence"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Connor also picks Silva, agreeing that she has more dynamic moments and can out-wrestle Araújo. He notes that Araújo's striking is predictable and she struggles against athletic opponents. Connor thinks Silva's reactive takedowns and submission threat will be key.

"I think i'll take silva as well..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Vreeland picks Silva because Araújo has struggled against younger, faster opponents. He notes Araújo's only recent win was over Jennifer Maia due to a speed advantage, but Silva is not slower. Silva has good volume, speed, and grappling, including a dangerous guillotine. Vreeland thinks Silva's all-around game will be too much for Araújo.

"I think speed volume little bit of grappling all gonna be too much for Vivy here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel Vreeland picks Karine Silva, citing her dominance in getting fights to the mat and her submission threats. He acknowledges Araújo's takedown defense and striking output but believes Silva's assertiveness and ability to dictate the pace will lead to a win. He does not confidently predict a submission but expects Silva to control the fight.

"I just think there's a certain dominance and confidence and assertiveness about how karini goes about getting the fights to the mat"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Fox picks Silva, calling her 'killer' and noting she is good everywhere and finishes fights. He agrees with Vreeland that Silva is the better fighter and expects her to win.

"I'm taking uh killer karini Silva as well... she's good everywhere and she you know finishes people everywhere as well"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Lucrative James picks Karine Silva confidently, noting she is on an upward trajectory while Araújo is declining. He believes Silva has sharper BJJ and can capitalize on Araújo's takedown attempts to take the back or snatch a front choke. He also thinks Silva can land a knockdown on the feet, as Araújo gets hurt often. He predicts Silva wins inside the distance, though a close decision is possible. He sees value in Silva at -275 compared to Oliveira at the same odds.

wins inside the distance
"I think Karine Silva can snap up some type of front choke or maybe take the back after a failed shot from aruo."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Karine Silva

The host thinks Silva is not as good as the odds suggest but believes her eventual grappling approach in the second and third rounds will wear out Araújo, who may have early striking success. He predicts Silva grinds it out, possibly getting a submission but officially wins by decision.

submission in second or third round
"Silva I do not think is as good as the odds are making her seem but I think her eventual grappling approach in the second and third rounds is really going to wear out aruo who could have some success …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Paul leans toward Karine Silva but has reservations. He notes Silva's grappling is solid but she lacks ground and pound, and Araújo has never been submitted. Paul thinks the fight could be competitive and might go to a split decision, so he's considering a split decision prop. He's not confident enough to bet heavily.

split decision prop (considered)
"I can see a world where I put lawn top as a PRP pick but uh I'm gonna look at it a few more times before I uh go betting anything with my actual money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo as an underdog, not sold on Karine Silva's hype. He notes Araújo's competitive fights with Natalia Silva and Alexa Grasso, and believes she can survive Silva's grappling. He doubts Silva's finishing ability.

"I'm going to go with uh Vivian arajo I think she's tricking I don't I'm not sold on Karen Silva being this upcoming monster"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Zane picks Silva, noting that both fighters are processless but Silva has more dynamic opportunities. He thinks Silva's speed and opportunistic grappling can catch Araújo, who is one-dimensional and losing athleticism. Zane believes Silva has a better chance of finishing or winning rounds.

"I think in that realm i'm gonna pick carini silva..."
LOSS vs Natália Silva
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natália Silva 0 26 of 67 38% 63 of 110 1 of 9 11% 0 0 6:01
Viviane Araújo 0 38 of 128 29% 65 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natália Silva 0 8 of 15 53% 36 of 43 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:31
Viviane Araújo 0 8 of 32 25% 16 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Natália Silva 0 9 of 21 42% 18 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:25
Viviane Araújo 0 12 of 38 31% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Natália Silva 0 9 of 31 29% 9 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:05
Viviane Araújo 0 18 of 58 31% 27 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natália Silva 26 of 67 38% 20 of 58 1 of 3 5 of 6 25 of 66 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 38 of 128 29% 24 of 103 8 of 16 6 of 9 38 of 128 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natália Silva 8 of 15 53% 6 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 8 of 32 25% 5 of 26 2 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Natália Silva 9 of 21 42% 6 of 18 1 of 1 2 of 2 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 12 of 38 31% 10 of 33 1 of 2 1 of 3 12 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Natália Silva 9 of 31 29% 8 of 27 0 of 2 1 of 2 9 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 18 of 58 31% 9 of 44 5 of 9 4 of 5 18 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Angelo is very high on Natália Silva, calling her a potential top-five fighter. He notes her footwork, takedown defense (92%), and power that carries into later rounds. He believes she will outclass Viviane Araújo everywhere and get the win.

"I think Natalia Silva absolutely gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Big Brady picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He notes that Silva is 10 years younger and has better cardio, while Araújo slows down significantly as fights go on. He expects the fight to be competitive early, possibly with Araújo trying to wrestle, but Silva will take over as the fight progresses and win a decision.

decision
"I kind of see it being somewhat competitive early on ... but as the fight goes on I do like Silva to take over do the better work have the better cardio and win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Cody picks Silva, praising her evolution and athleticism. He notes Araújo's cardio issues and inconsistency, expecting Silva to win a decision or possibly get a late finish. He likes Silva by decision prop to avoid the heavy moneyline.

Natália Silva by decision
"I went with the Natalia Silva by decision prop simply because I think she wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Silva has looked unstoppable in the UFC with her lateral movement, kicks from distance, and submissions off her back. Araújo is a crisp striker early but fades as fights go on, and Silva's volume and output should allow her to win a decision. The host suggests playing Silva live if Araújo wins round one, or using her as a parlay piece.

Live betting opportunity: if Araújo wins round one, Silva could be available at -200 to -150. Also mentioned as a parlay piece.
"I think it's ultimately going to be the decision fighting style of Silva her output and volume heavy style which will allow her to go out there and get the decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Paul picks Silva by KO, taking a small stab at +540. He notes Silva's power and Araújo's toughness but thinks Silva's evolving skill set can get the finish. He acknowledges the moneyline is too steep.

Natália Silva by KO +540
"I took Natalia Silva by KO plus 540"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva over Viviane Araújo, despite a bizarre tangent about fighters' relationship status. He acknowledges Araújo is good but believes Silva has the skill level to make something happen. He notes Silva's wins over Jasmine Jasudavicius, Mayra Bueno Silva, and Andrea Lee, and thinks Araújo may be on the downswing. He predicts a decision win for Silva.

by decision
"I am still going to go Natalia Silva... I think Natalia Silva is actually the skill level to make something happen here... I'm going to bet she's on the down swing and this is where Natalia Silva can get one …"
WIN vs Jennifer Maia
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 41 of 101 40% 60 of 126 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:25
Jennifer Maia 0 24 of 46 52% 64 of 100 2 of 6 33% 1 0 7:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 24 of 58 41% 28 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jennifer Maia 0 14 of 30 46% 14 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:25
2 Viviane Araújo 0 0 of 5 0% 8 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jennifer Maia 0 2 of 2 100% 24 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:35
3 Viviane Araújo 0 17 of 38 44% 24 of 45 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:25
Jennifer Maia 0 8 of 14 57% 26 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 41 of 101 40% 29 of 87 2 of 4 10 of 10 31 of 88 10 of 13 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 24 of 46 52% 15 of 36 4 of 5 5 of 5 22 of 43 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 24 of 58 41% 15 of 48 2 of 3 7 of 7 21 of 54 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 14 of 30 46% 8 of 23 2 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Viviane Araújo 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Viviane Araújo 17 of 38 44% 14 of 34 0 of 1 3 of 3 10 of 29 7 of 9 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 8 of 14 57% 5 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 12 0 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

Angelo is very confident in Jennifer Maia, calling her at -141 a great deal. He thinks she is better everywhere except raw takedowns, and expects her to weather Araújo's early storm, take over striking, and win a decision due to superior cardio. He already placed a unit on her and expects the line to widen.

Already placed 1 unit at -141
"Jennifer mayia at minus 141 is a great deal I think she dominates this fight great deal I already have a unit on her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Big Brady picks Viviane Araújo with little confidence. He likes her striking and wrestling advantage early, but worries about her poor cardio and durability. He expects Araújo to win the first round, Maia the third, and the fight to go to a close decision that could be affected by judges.

"I'm going to take Vivan aruu here with little to no confidence it's hard to have confidence in somebody with no cardio"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Cody picks Araújo, citing her superior speed and technique. He notes that at her best, she is faster and cleaner than Maia, and can mix in takedowns to steal rounds. He acknowledges her past cardio issues but believes she has corrected them in recent fights, pointing to her performances against Andrea Lee and Alexa Grasso. He expects a 15-minute fight and thinks Araújo can win two of three rounds.

"I'll take Viviane Araújo"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

The host picks Jennifer Maia, citing her superior experience, cardio, and ability to withstand Araújo's early striking. He expects Maia to take over in the second and third rounds, possibly using takedowns to wear on Araújo. He predicts a decision win for Maia.

"give me Maya here I think she uh again after I close first round she should should start to pull away in the second and third rounds where she should be able to get her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

Paul leans towards Maia based on her high volume in recent fights (109 and 145 significant strikes). He acknowledges Araújo's takedown threat but notes that judges now require control time and damage from top position. He expects a close decision and thinks Maia's volume will edge it. He also mentions the over 2.5 rounds at -450 as a potential play.

Over 2.5 rounds at -450
"I'll lean towards Jennifer Maia just based on volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

The MMA Guru picks Jennifer Maia over Viviane Araújo. He thinks Maia has better boxing and is scrappier. He notes Araújo is on a two-fight losing streak and didn't look good against Amanda Ribas, while Maia is on a two-fight winning streak, including a win over Casey O'Neill. He expects a decision win for Maia, calling it a coin flip but leaning her way due to momentum.

decision
"I'm going to go with Jennifer Meer over Vivian arajo I think she's got way better boxing"
LOSS vs Amanda Ribas
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Ribas 0 46 of 115 40% 86 of 162 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 98 of 183 53% 205 of 320 2 of 2 100% 0 0 8:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Ribas 0 18 of 48 37% 35 of 65 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 31 of 71 43% 48 of 91 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:25
2 Amanda Ribas 0 4 of 8 50% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 9 of 15 60% 81 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:40
3 Amanda Ribas 0 24 of 59 40% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 58 of 97 59% 76 of 117 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Ribas 46 of 115 40% 37 of 105 5 of 6 4 of 4 45 of 114 0 of 0 1 of 1
Viviane Araújo 98 of 183 53% 71 of 149 11 of 16 16 of 18 93 of 176 0 of 0 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Ribas 18 of 48 37% 13 of 42 3 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 31 of 71 43% 20 of 58 4 of 4 7 of 9 31 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Amanda Ribas 4 of 8 50% 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Viviane Araújo 9 of 15 60% 7 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 6
3 Amanda Ribas 24 of 59 40% 21 of 56 1 of 1 2 of 2 24 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 58 of 97 59% 44 of 78 6 of 11 8 of 8 58 of 97 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, citing her faster striking and better cardio. He notes that Viviane Araújo is more dangerous early but fades as the fight goes on. Angelo believes Ribas can point her way to a decision if she stays on the outside and works her striking.

"Amanda he boss is going to win this fight um I think the odds are probably probably good"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Big Brady picks Viviane Araújo but is hesitant due to her cardio issues. He notes she has 90% takedown defense and is the better striker, but she tends to slow down after the first round. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Araújo, acknowledging Ribas may take the third round.

"I will take Vivian every yujo to win this fight by 28 29-28 decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Cody picks Araújo, believing her takedown defense and striking will be enough to keep the fight standing and win rounds. He notes her cardio issues but thinks she can win two of three rounds. He sees value at plus money.

"I'm gonna go with Viviana ruizio actually it's basically a pick em type fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Connor picks Viviane Araújo, believing her improved striking and range management will allow her to outwork Ribas. He notes that Ribas's striking is technically poor and she relies on aggression and transitions, but Araújo's takedown defense is solid and she is a better athlete. Connor thinks Ribas will struggle to get the fight to the ground and will be picked apart on the feet.

"I guess I I like I like Viviana here."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Jacob picks Amanda Ribas but is scared, noting that Araújo is dangerous early and hits hard. He believes Ribas can take over in the second and third rounds as Araújo's cardio fades. Jacob does not have a straight bet on Ribas due to the risk.

"I'm picking Amanda but honestly I'm scared out of my mind"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Araújo is a solid striker with good power and leg kicks. Ribas has average striking and gets flustered against better strikers. Araújo's takedown defense should hold up, keeping the fight standing where she has the advantage, and she wins a decision.

"I think her more effective striking style is going to allow her to distance herself from he boss here... I think that we'll see Russo just beat her to the punch over and over again battering her on route to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Paul picks Ribas, citing her youth and takedown ability. He thinks she can get takedowns and control the fight. He acknowledges it's a close fight and won't bet it, but for picks he goes with Ribas.

"I'll be picking hibis but uh but yeah not not one that I feel like I can really attack"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas, citing her youth and potential versus Araújo's age. He believes Ribas has a submission advantage and a better chin, predicting a close 29-28 decision.

"I'm gonna go with Amanda Ribas over Vivian arawaho... I think she gets this one done by again a close 29-28 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Zane also picks Araújo, agreeing that her improved striking and ability to stay at range will be key. He notes that Ribas's best wins are against lower-level competition and that her grappling success may not translate against Araújo's strong takedown defense. Zane adds that Araújo is more accurate and self-contained, and Ribas's aggressive style will leave her open to counters.

"I think I got a pic vivier Aja."
LOSS vs Alexa Grasso
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexa Grasso 0 153 of 311 49% 193 of 353 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 126 of 264 47% 148 of 288 2 of 10 20% 0 0 3:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexa Grasso 0 32 of 66 48% 33 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 27 of 52 51% 30 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
2 Alexa Grasso 0 38 of 73 52% 57 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 20 of 50 40% 26 of 56 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:38
3 Alexa Grasso 0 34 of 64 53% 34 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 30 of 54 55% 30 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Alexa Grasso 0 24 of 47 51% 36 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 25 of 56 44% 30 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
5 Alexa Grasso 0 25 of 61 40% 33 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 24 of 52 46% 32 of 61 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexa Grasso 153 of 311 49% 101 of 243 33 of 45 19 of 23 143 of 298 9 of 12 1 of 1
Viviane Araújo 126 of 264 47% 103 of 235 17 of 22 6 of 7 124 of 261 0 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexa Grasso 32 of 66 48% 24 of 55 5 of 7 3 of 4 30 of 63 2 of 3 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 27 of 52 51% 23 of 47 1 of 2 3 of 3 27 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexa Grasso 38 of 73 52% 26 of 60 8 of 9 4 of 4 37 of 71 0 of 1 1 of 1
Viviane Araújo 20 of 50 40% 15 of 44 5 of 6 0 of 0 18 of 48 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Alexa Grasso 34 of 64 53% 20 of 45 9 of 13 5 of 6 34 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 30 of 54 55% 25 of 48 4 of 5 1 of 1 30 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Alexa Grasso 24 of 47 51% 15 of 36 5 of 7 4 of 4 20 of 42 4 of 5 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 25 of 56 44% 19 of 50 5 of 5 1 of 1 25 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Alexa Grasso 25 of 61 40% 16 of 47 6 of 9 3 of 5 22 of 58 3 of 3 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 24 of 52 46% 21 of 46 2 of 4 1 of 2 24 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Angelo picks Alexa Grasso, emphasizing her takedown defense (60% but effective against top wrestlers like Carla Esparza) and striking volume. He notes that Viviane Araújo is a grappler who can strike but has a negative striking differential and conditioning issues. He believes Grasso will defend enough takedowns to out-strike Araújo and win a decision, especially as Araújo fades in later rounds.

Fight likely goes five rounds; round line analysis for premium members
"I am going to pick Rosso here because even if she cannot defend all of the takedowns I think she'll be able to defend enough of them to still completely outstrike Vivi"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Big Brady picks Alexa Grasso to win by decision. He cites the five-round distance as the key factor, noting that Araújo fades in three-round fights due to her high-energy style. He expects Araújo to have early success but fade in rounds 3-5, allowing Grasso to take over. He says he would consider Araújo in a three-round fight but not at five rounds. He will not bet this fight.

"I gotta go Grosso here... I'll say decision for Grosso"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Cody picks Grasso to win, likely by decision, citing her superior volume and improved grappling. He notes that Araújo has low volume and may struggle in a five-round fight, but the price at -225 is steep. He also likes the over 90.5 significant strikes prop on PrizePicks, as Grasso has reached that in three-round fights and this is five rounds.

over 90.5 significant strikes for Grasso on PrizePicks
"I'm picking Grasso to win likely by decision but the prop on that doesn't make me all that excited."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Connor also picks Grasso, emphasizing that since the Harig loss, wrestling has been the main problem for Grasso, but Araujo can get one-tracked and lose to fighters like Jessica Eye. He thinks Grasso can create enough challenge to make Araujo fall into traps. He notes that Grasso has had inconsistent performances but still favors her.

"I will take Alexa Grosso as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Grasso has youth, cardio, footwork, and combination striking advantages. Araújo has power but tends to slow down in later rounds, and this is a five-round fight. Grasso trains at altitude and has shown great cardio, while Araújo's best path is an early KO. Grasso should take over after the first round and win by decision, possibly finding a late finish. The host mentions being the 'women's MMA whisperer' and is confident in Grasso despite the chalky line.

Grasso by KO +1600 (hedge), Grasso by decision +130, rounds 4-5 decision prop
"I think Alexa Grosso this is a perfect setup spot for her to go out there and establish herself in the main event and establish herself as one of the better 125ers out there as well so give me Alexa …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Paul sees this as a great live betting opportunity. He thinks Araújo may have early success with takedowns and physicality, but her cardio is suspect at 35 and in her first five-round fight. He notes that Araújo has tired in third rounds historically, and Grasso's output should win out over five rounds. He picks Grasso by decision but doesn't love it.

live betting on Araújo early, then Grasso later
"I'm thinking that Grosso is going to win because it's the five round volume will take it over in the long run so Samuel Progresso Grosso by decision but again don't love it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

The MMA Guru picks Alexa Grasso, acknowledging that 90% of people are picking her. He likes Araújo as an underdog but believes in Grasso's improvements, especially her hands. He notes Grasso's first-round finish over Joanne Calderwood and win over Maycee Barber. He predicts a technical boxing match with Grasso stuffing takedowns and winning the first three rounds, ultimately 48-47 by decision.

prediction: 48-47 decision
"I am picking grassa she's a big favorite"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Zane picks Grasso, citing her sharper punching and ability to land cleaner shots over five rounds. He notes that Grasso has been putting together nice combination counters in the pocket, similar to Robert Whittaker, and that Araujo is very hittable. He acknowledges Araujo's wrestling and grappling could be a factor but believes Grasso's scrambling and clinch work will be enough to win.

"I'm going to go with you because if I think of this as a fight where I don't expect either woman to get finished and Grosso's a very scrambling grappler... then I have to depend on Grosso to land the …"
WIN vs Andrea Lee
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 39 of 79 49% 96 of 160 3 of 5 60% 2 0 10:40
Andrea Lee 1 47 of 82 57% 64 of 103 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 18 of 34 52% 31 of 48 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:48
Andrea Lee 1 25 of 51 49% 29 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
2 Viviane Araújo 0 14 of 27 51% 48 of 83 0 of 0 --- 2 0 4:26
Andrea Lee 0 9 of 10 90% 13 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Viviane Araújo 0 7 of 18 38% 17 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:26
Andrea Lee 0 13 of 21 61% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 39 of 79 49% 25 of 63 9 of 11 5 of 5 32 of 66 0 of 0 7 of 13
Andrea Lee 47 of 82 57% 34 of 65 9 of 13 4 of 4 36 of 64 7 of 11 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 18 of 34 52% 11 of 26 5 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 31 0 of 0 1 of 3
Andrea Lee 25 of 51 49% 19 of 42 4 of 7 2 of 2 15 of 34 6 of 10 4 of 7
2 Viviane Araújo 14 of 27 51% 10 of 22 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 18 0 of 0 6 of 9
Andrea Lee 9 of 10 90% 5 of 6 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Viviane Araújo 7 of 18 38% 4 of 15 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 1
Andrea Lee 13 of 21 61% 10 of 17 2 of 3 1 of 1 12 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Andrea Lee, noting her improved takedown defense and cardio. He thinks Araújo has cardio issues and fades in the third round. He believes Lee will push the pace, tire Araújo out, and win by volume. He mentions Lee's training with Tony Kelley and her social media showing hard work.

"i think this lead thing is the same thing like physically lisa as strong as anybody the technique's just not quite there in the takedown defense she shorted up a little bit and she still stops more takedowns than she …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is cautious, warning that Araújo is more of a wrestler and Lee's takedown defense is her kryptonite. He says it could be a situation where Araújo takes Lee down and holds top control, making it risky. He advises not putting this on a top ticket.

"i would say cody just be careful don't put this all the way up but like ticket one ticket two because it could be a situation where arujo takes her down is able to hold top control"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 127 of 292 43% 135 of 300 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Viviane Araújo 0 89 of 196 45% 129 of 238 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 37 of 91 40% 43 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 32 of 56 57% 36 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:55
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 35 of 76 46% 37 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Viviane Araújo 0 22 of 48 45% 58 of 86 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:06
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 55 of 125 44% 55 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 35 of 92 38% 35 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 127 of 292 43% 87 of 236 31 of 46 9 of 10 121 of 286 6 of 6 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 89 of 196 45% 60 of 162 24 of 29 5 of 5 85 of 192 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 37 of 91 40% 21 of 67 13 of 20 3 of 4 33 of 87 4 of 4 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 32 of 56 57% 17 of 38 13 of 16 2 of 2 29 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 35 of 76 46% 24 of 62 9 of 12 2 of 2 34 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 22 of 48 45% 19 of 45 2 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 55 of 125 44% 42 of 107 9 of 14 4 of 4 54 of 124 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 35 of 92 38% 24 of 79 9 of 11 2 of 2 34 of 91 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Araújo is the better striker with higher volume and power. She also has takedown ability and a black belt in BJJ. Cerminara gets outlanded in most fights and relies on noise to sway judges, but with a crowd that won't work. Araújo's cardio is a concern, but she has been improving. I think she wins a decision.

"I will take viviana rougea to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Chookagian. He emphasizes that Araújo has poor cardio and gives up takedowns when tired. Cody believes Chookagian's improved wrestling and defensive grappling will allow her to control the fight. He notes that Chookagian's volume and ability to stay on the outside will be effective.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes.
"i agree with you this is a spot i like from a monkey knife fight uh perspective and i would hit the double over"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Daniel Levi picks Viviane Araújo as a dog, citing her power, explosiveness, and footwork. He notes that Chookagian struggles when pressured and that Araújo can land big overhand rights. However, he is concerned about Araújo's cardio and whether she can maintain output for three rounds. Levi thinks it's a close fight and a dog-or-pass situation, but leans toward Araújo for a split decision.

dog or pass situation
"i'm going to pick vv as well i i do think it's a dog or pass situation"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host is confident in Chookagian, citing her endless cardio, movement, and volume. He thinks she will stay on her bicycle, jab, and leg kick, making Araújo uncomfortable and causing her to gas. He notes Araújo's takedown defense is good but Chookagian's style should nullify her. He predicts a decision win and calls minus 135 a great line.

Chookagian by decision
"i like it or 2k in here minus 135 i think is a great line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul picks Chookagian, noting that she only loses to the elite and has improved her wrestling and grappling. He highlights that Araújo has cardio issues and gives up takedowns when tired. Paul expects Chookagian to use her wrestling to neutralize Araújo's physicality and win the later rounds. He mentions that Chookagian's volume and defensive wrestling will be key.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (54.5 for Chookagian, 37.5 for Araújo). Fight goes to distance at -400.
"the pick officially will be caleb chicago but again this is another interesting opportunity to look at it from a live betting standpoint"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara over Viviane Araújo, praising Cerminara's underrated skills and her performance against Valentina Shevchenko. He notes Araújo lacks finishing ability and believes Cerminara's grappling and range will be key. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with caitlyn chukagi in here"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Angelo is very high on Natália Silva, calling her a potential top-five fighter. He notes her footwork, takedown defense (92%), and power that carries into later rounds. He believes she will outclass Viviane Araújo everywhere and get the win.

"I think Natalia Silva absolutely gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Big Brady picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He notes that Silva is 10 years younger and has better cardio, while Araújo slows down significantly as fights go on. He expects the fight to be competitive early, possibly with Araújo trying to wrestle, but Silva will take over as the fight progresses and win a decision.

decision
"I kind of see it being somewhat competitive early on ... but as the fight goes on I do like Silva to take over do the better work have the better cardio and win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Cody picks Silva, praising her evolution and athleticism. He notes Araújo's cardio issues and inconsistency, expecting Silva to win a decision or possibly get a late finish. He likes Silva by decision prop to avoid the heavy moneyline.

Natália Silva by decision
"I went with the Natalia Silva by decision prop simply because I think she wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Silva has looked unstoppable in the UFC with her lateral movement, kicks from distance, and submissions off her back. Araújo is a crisp striker early but fades as fights go on, and Silva's volume and output should allow her to win a decision. The host suggests playing Silva live if Araújo wins round one, or using her as a parlay piece.

Live betting opportunity: if Araújo wins round one, Silva could be available at -200 to -150. Also mentioned as a parlay piece.
"I think it's ultimately going to be the decision fighting style of Silva her output and volume heavy style which will allow her to go out there and get the decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Paul picks Silva by KO, taking a small stab at +540. He notes Silva's power and Araújo's toughness but thinks Silva's evolving skill set can get the finish. He acknowledges the moneyline is too steep.

Natália Silva by KO +540
"I took Natalia Silva by KO plus 540"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva over Viviane Araújo, despite a bizarre tangent about fighters' relationship status. He acknowledges Araújo is good but believes Silva has the skill level to make something happen. He notes Silva's wins over Jasmine Jasudavicius, Mayra Bueno Silva, and Andrea Lee, and thinks Araújo may be on the downswing. He predicts a decision win for Silva.

by decision
"I am still going to go Natalia Silva... I think Natalia Silva is actually the skill level to make something happen here... I'm going to bet she's on the down swing and this is where Natalia Silva can get one over on her by decision."