UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024 · Middleweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov Next Fight
Age 30
Height 6' 3"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 6' 2"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Nassourdine Imavov
4.28 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
3.17 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.74 TD Avg
32.0% TD Acc.
81.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Roman Dolidze
3.19 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
3.71 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
1.16 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
32.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Nassourdine Imavov
Moneyline
Caesars -160
KO/TKO
BetRivers +260
Submission
FanDuel +650
Decision
BetWay +275
Roman Dolidze
Moneyline
DraftKings +150
KO/TKO
BetRivers +440
Submission
BetRivers +600
Decision
BetRivers +700
Nassourdine Imavov - Fight History
WIN vs Caio Borralho
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 81 of 162 50% 89 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Caio Borralho 0 66 of 166 39% 89 of 190 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 10 of 18 55% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Borralho 0 6 of 22 27% 13 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:51
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Borralho 0 7 of 30 23% 7 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 13 of 31 41% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Caio Borralho 0 17 of 38 44% 21 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
4 Nassourdine Imavov 0 24 of 44 54% 26 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Caio Borralho 0 12 of 32 37% 20 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
5 Nassourdine Imavov 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Borralho 0 24 of 44 54% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 81 of 162 50% 53 of 118 14 of 26 14 of 18 79 of 160 2 of 2 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 66 of 166 39% 39 of 109 14 of 38 13 of 19 59 of 159 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 10 of 18 55% 3 of 6 3 of 5 4 of 7 9 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 6 of 22 27% 1 of 10 4 of 8 1 of 4 3 of 19 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Nassourdine Imavov 13 of 26 50% 9 of 20 3 of 4 1 of 2 13 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 7 of 30 23% 3 of 16 1 of 11 3 of 3 7 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nassourdine Imavov 13 of 31 41% 10 of 24 2 of 6 1 of 1 13 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 17 of 38 44% 8 of 22 7 of 13 2 of 3 14 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0
4 Nassourdine Imavov 24 of 44 54% 17 of 35 3 of 5 4 of 4 24 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 12 of 32 37% 10 of 26 0 of 3 2 of 3 12 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Nassourdine Imavov 21 of 43 48% 14 of 33 3 of 6 4 of 4 20 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 24 of 44 54% 17 of 35 2 of 3 5 of 6 23 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo leans towards Nassourdine Imavov, citing his superior striking, footwork, and gas tank. He acknowledges Borralho's improvements and toughness but believes Imavov has more ways to win. He trusts Imavov's takedown defense over five rounds and notes that Borralho might be distracted by his world tour. He calls it a razor-thin 50-50 fight.

"I am going to lean Nasser Imov here because I think he has more ways to win."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Big Brady picks Caio Borralho, citing his grappling upside and the 'Fighting Nerds' aura. He expects a close fight going 25 minutes, with Borralho winning minutes in the clinch and with takedowns. He notes both have good cardio but favors Borralho slightly.

Borralho by decision
"I'm going to go Kyle Baja to win this fight by a close decision, winning some minutes in the clinch, having the slightly better cardio, and then mixing in some takedowns."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Connor also picks Borralho, citing that Imavov's game may struggle against a southpaw and that Borralho's low kicks and body work will pay dividends. He notes that Imavov still tends to gas, especially if he wrestles, and that Borralho's conditioning is superior. However, he admits that Borralho's one good performance against Cannonier may be stylistic and that Imavov could have a definitive round.

"I tend to agree because even if it's not that good a performance, I do kind of suspect a lot of that had to do with Jared Cannonier as a stylistic matchup for him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

The host views Borralho as the far superior fighter in fight IQ and overall MMA approach. He acknowledges Imavov can be competitive in striking but expects Borralho to mix it up well, get his grappling going, and win at least four out of five rounds on the scorecards.

"I think Bajalio is just the far superior fighter from fight IQ to an overall MMA approach. But Hayo can definitely be competitive in the striking realm, and I think we'll see him mix it up well to eventually get …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov as an underdog, arguing the odds are incorrect and Imavov should be a 2-to-1 favorite. He praises Imavov's striking, footwork, and speed, while noting Borralho's grappling advantage may not materialize. He predicts a TKO finish in round three or four, citing Imavov's moments of excellence and Borralho's inactivity.

TKO finish in round three or four
"I'm going with Nasadin Mav. And he's an underdog here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Zane leans toward Borralho because he believes Borralho has shown improved striking and pace, particularly in the Jared Cannonier fight, and can push a better pace for more rounds. He notes that Imavov tends to gas and relies on wrestling, which may not be effective against Borralho's conditioning. However, he acknowledges that Imavov could have a definitive round or land a damaging shot, making it a close fight.

"I think for me, I'm still going to lean towards picking Caio Borralho just because if I imagine the shape of the fight, I don't think like Imavov when he finishes people, it always just kind of comes out of …"
KO R2 0:30 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 26 of 50 52% 32 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 1 15 of 31 48% 18 of 34 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 20 of 44 45% 26 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 21 38% 10 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
2 Israel Adesanya 0 6 of 6 100% 6 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 1 7 of 10 70% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 26 of 50 52% 9 of 28 6 of 8 11 of 14 26 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 15 of 31 48% 9 of 21 0 of 3 6 of 7 10 of 25 0 of 0 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 20 of 44 45% 8 of 27 3 of 5 9 of 12 20 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 21 38% 3 of 13 0 of 2 5 of 6 8 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 6 of 6 100% 1 of 1 3 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 7 of 10 70% 6 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya but is getting less confident. He notes that Adesanya's striking looked great in his last fight against Dricus du Plessis, but he was ultimately finished. He believes Adesanya is the better striker and if the fight stays on the feet, he wins. However, he worries about Imavov's wrestling and the possibility of Adesanya's decline. He will not bet on Adesanya.

Will not bet on Adesanya.
"I will not be betting on Israel at asagna I don't quite know if his career is about to fall off a cliff"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is not overly excited for this fight but picks Israel Adesanya. He notes Adesanya looked bad against Strickland but good against Du Plessis before getting submitted. He thinks Imavov can wrestle but lacks the cardio to do so effectively, and will slow down as the fight goes on. Brady expects Adesanya to pick him apart late and win a decision. He has no betting interest.

decision
"I got to go aagna here and osani to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Connor picks Adesanya, arguing that Imavov lacks the pressure and cardio to exploit Adesanya's age. He notes that Adesanya's jab and kicking game remain effective, and Imavov has never shown the ability to maintain a high pace or wrestle consistently enough to trouble Adesanya. Connor believes Imavov would need a radically new approach to win, which he hasn't demonstrated.

"I just kind of have to pick Otis on you by default here and unless he has completely fallen apart or Imavov has leveled up or come up with a really good strategy then."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

James picks Imavov to win, citing Adesanya's decline in durability, reaction time, and motivation. He notes Imavov has advantages in wrestling and grappling, and that Adesanya's recent submission loss to Dricus du Plessis showed poor defensive grappling. He believes Imavov can win by submission, decision, or even knockout due to Adesanya's declining chin. However, he admits it's not his most confident pick.

Imavov by submission at +850 mentioned as a possible play; also suggests Imavov decision as a potential prop.
"I'm going to pick nasad imov to win this fight I think that he's catching Iz he at the right time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is facing a kickboxer that allows him to showcase his high-level performances, unlike the wrestling-heavy styles of Strickland and du Plessis. He will set traps, spring them on Imavov, and prove he is still one of the best middleweights. Expect a 25-minute decision win.

"I believe this is the type of kickboxer that Adesanya has been wanting to go against so that he can showcase that he's still capable of high level performances... look for Adesanya to pick apart Imavov over the course of …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov to win by submission in the third round, possibly an arm triangle. He believes Imavov's grappling and clinch work will be key, as Adesanya has weaknesses in the clinch and on the ground. He notes Imavov nearly beat Sean Strickland and has good takedown entries. He thinks Adesanya's motivation may be lacking after his losses.

submission, third round arm triangle
"I'm going to go with nasad Nam mov and I'm actually going to take him by submission third round arm triangle"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Zane picks Adesanya, agreeing with Connor that Imavov's style doesn't match up well. He emphasizes that Imavov is not a pressure fighter and struggles with pace, while Adesanya's kicking and jab are still effective. Zane notes that Imavov would need to wrestle consistently, but his takedowns are often from clinch exchanges, which Adesanya handles well.

"I don't think that he's ever shown really the late cardio to make out of Sonia like flow down and really pay for putting on a great performance."
WIN vs Brendan Allen
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 57 of 86 66% 79 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 5:47
Brendan Allen 0 30 of 52 57% 56 of 82 1 of 10 10% 0 0 6:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 1 of 3 33% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brendan Allen 0 4 of 5 80% 21 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:45
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 23 of 33 69% 31 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:32
Brendan Allen 0 8 of 19 42% 11 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 33 of 50 66% 43 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:15
Brendan Allen 0 18 of 28 64% 24 of 35 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 57 of 86 66% 51 of 80 5 of 5 1 of 1 37 of 59 7 of 9 13 of 18
Brendan Allen 30 of 52 57% 20 of 41 4 of 5 6 of 6 20 of 38 6 of 10 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brendan Allen 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Nassourdine Imavov 23 of 33 69% 19 of 29 3 of 3 1 of 1 12 of 18 2 of 3 9 of 12
Brendan Allen 8 of 19 42% 4 of 14 1 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 15 2 of 3 1 of 1
3 Nassourdine Imavov 33 of 50 66% 31 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0 24 of 38 5 of 6 4 of 6
Brendan Allen 18 of 28 64% 13 of 23 3 of 3 2 of 2 14 of 21 4 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brendan Allen vs. Nassourdine Imavov

Round 1
On practically any other Fight Night card, this middleweight pairing would serve as the main attraction—and it could use the five-round treatment, as the winner might not be far from a title shot. Imavov (14-4, 1 NC; 6-2, 1 NC UFC) is coming off the biggest win of his career, having knocked out Jared Cannonier. His opponent Allen (24-5, 13-2 UFC) is riding a dynamite seven-fight win streak on his own ledger, and someone’s momentum will grind to a halt in the next 15 minutes or less. Referee Herb Dean will know first before anyone else, and he tells the fighters to fight as they acknowledge him and do not bump fists. Imavov takes to the center of the cage, and lets Allen come to him. Allen does just that, leaping in to land a few punches. Imavov pushes him away, getting away with an eye poke, and finds himself staring down the barrel of a takedown attempt. Allen easily lands the body lock, putting the Frenchman on his back and landing in side control. Allen imposes heavy shoulder pressure on the side of Imavov’s face, holding him tightly while Imavov signals to Dean that he is just holding him. Dean asks for more activity, leading to Allen shoulder-checking the local fighter. Imavov tries to buck and shift his hips, and he sits up and is otherwise stuck. Allen looks to assume full mount, and he gets caught and pulled into half guard. Allen opens up with short, stay-busy strikes, and he lowers himself down with a possible arm-triangle setup. Dean claps several times to prompt more action, and Imavov reassumes full guard. Allen postures himself up to land a single right hand, and it is one-and-done and makes Dean ask for more fighting a few times. Imavov sets up an armbar, but he lets it go and gets tagged with a hard right hand. Allen connects with a left while Imavov scoots his way closer to the fencing, and Dean is not overly thrilled by the lack of face-punching thus far. Allen allows Imavov to turn over to his knees, working the body with a knee and planting an elbow on the eyebrow before the grinder of a round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 2
Allen sprints out of his corner to engage, and he fires off a big right hand only to get poked squarely in the eye. Allen signals to Dean that he has gotten poked again, and Dean calls time. Allen frowns and takes a few seconds before resuming, and Dean tells Imavov to be careful. Allen shoots from one side of the cage to the other with a single, and Imavov defends this time and drops to his knees to sprawl effectively. Allen turns to his back, and Imavov lets him stand up. Allen fires off two low kicks and a left hook, and Imavov counters with a right hand over the top. Imavov rings two punches off and waves Allen on, who connects cleanly and shoots for a double. Imavov stuffs this shot masterfully, and he rolls Allen to his back and gets to north-south position. Imavov moves himself to side control, and Allen turns to his knees and starts absorbing fierce punches from the position. Allen’s small rubber bands holding his hair braids start breaking and shooting off his head, and a pile of them forms beneath him. Imavov postures up and batters “All In” with devastating right hands, and Allen is stunned and still with it. Allen explodes back to his feet and directly into a head kick, but he turns around and lets Imavov have it with counters. Imavov strings a combination together and stops a deep shot from Allen, dropping to his knees and considering a guillotine choke of his own to keep Allen honest. Allen breaks out of the choke and dives after the hips, and he twists and turns to not get tagged. This allows the Frenchman to mount him, and Allen turns to give his back up and surrenders both hooks. Allen hand-fights to protect his neck, and Imavov rolls for an armbar with 10 seconds left in the round. Allen defends properly and flips over, landing a few punches before time expires. Allen flashes a wide grin to his opponent after several minutes of grappling.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Imavov

Round 3
The last round kicks off with Allen again pushing the pace, and after landing a few punches, Allen is driven back with a one-two. Imavov flicks a jab out and follows with a right hand, and Allen leaps after a single. Imavov defends with a sprawl in the center of the cage, pulling his leg out and letting Allen roll to his back so he can club him with right hands. Imavov, in guard, drops down a few punches to bloody the nose of the surging contender. Imavov’s left hands continue to find their home, and Allen pushes off the chest with his feet. Imavov dives after him with a right hand, and Allen sits up and spins around to pursue a double. The Frenchman defends with his back to the fencing, elbowing Allen on the side of the head when Allen turns it to a single. Imavov’s defense in the second and third rounds is immaculate, and Allen is the one getting tossed around at this point. Imavov loads up on short punches from inside, and Allen shoves him away and throws caution to the wind. Allen punches his way in close, and he blasts Imavov in the face with a knee. Imavov waves him on, and Allen tries to throw him to the mat. Allen walks Imavov down when they both are upright, and he overswings and ends up in a clinch. Allen informs Dean that Imavov is holding his gloves, and Dean looks closely but does not see anything. They break out of the clinch, and Allen whips an elbow up top and a clean knee on the chin. Allen shoots for a single with a minute to go, and when that fails, they start slugging it out. Imavov tags Allen, and Allen fires back hard. Allen tackles his foe down, but Imavov squirms away. Allen walks him down, gets clinched and spins with an elbow that misses. Imavov lands a few punches, and the nailbiter of a middleweight contest draws to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (29-28 Imavov)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (29-28 Imavov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (29-28 Imavov)

The Official Result
Nassourdine Imavov def. Brendan Allen via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov, though he thinks the -200 favorite line is a bit wide. He believes Imavov's size and wrestling will be too much for Brendan Allen, who has improved but struggled with Chris Curtis until he wrestled. Allen won't be able to outwrestle Imavov, and Imavov's striking will give Allen trouble. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"Nasser Imavov is going to be my pick... the fact that this is three rounds instead of five only helps Nasser here... I do think the over two and a half is pretty solid."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady picks Nassourdine Imavov by second-round knockout, citing Imavov's superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Allen has been on a streak but has poor striking defense (47%) and has been knocked out before. He expects Imavov to land significant shots and finish Allen.

Imavov by second round knockout
"I'll say he knocks out Allen here I'll say he knocks out brenon Allen in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Cody sees Brendan Allen as a live underdog due to his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Imavov has been protected from wrestlers and has shown defensive grappling vulnerabilities. Allen's game plan of takedowns and top control should neutralize Imavov's striking, and the three-round format favors Allen's approach.

"I'm going to take unders on Brendon Allen... the plus money definitely makes sense"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Connor picks Imavov because he believes Allen's defensive deficiencies on the feet will be exploited by Imavov's size, range, and power. He notes that Allen's best wins have come against grapplers or lower-level strikers, and he has struggled against fighters who can keep him at range. Connor also points out that Allen tends to be cautious against strikers he respects, which will play into Imavov's hands. He acknowledges that Allen could win if he pressures relentlessly, but doubts he will do so effectively.

Odds: Imavov -209, Allen +182. Connor mentions the odds are reasonable.
"I'm picking Nasri and Ymavov here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Daniel Vreeland picks Imavov to win, but is not confident he covers the -210 price. He thinks Imavov's speed, power, and distance management will be key, and that he has a good chance to knock out Allen. However, he believes if Imavov doesn't finish, the fight will be close and Allen has value as a dog. He ultimately picks Imavov but notes the price is high.

"I think imov has a good chance to knock out Allen here in this fight but if he doesn't knock him out I don't think he's GNA cover this price tag"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

JP picks Nassourdine Imavov because he thinks the three-round format favors Imavov's striking. He notes Brendan Allen has a grappling advantage but Imavov throws harder, more accurate strikes and is more mobile. He says if it were five rounds, he'd pick Allen, but in three rounds Imavov should edge it out by decision.

"I am going to go am MAV as well though I I think he can uh I think it'll go all three I think both of them are good enough but uh yeah I think he'll Edge it out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Allen's seven-fight win streak and his ability to take down Chris Curtis six times. He believes Allen's grappling advantage is clear and that Imavov's defensive wrestling is suspect. Paul also notes that the line doesn't reflect the competitive nature of the fight, making Allen a good dog pick.

"I'm with you 100%... he's on a seven fight winning streak taking down Chris Curtis six times is a massive massive feat"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov over Brendan Allen, citing Imavov's technical striking and ability at all ranges. He notes Imavov's good takedown defense and performance against Strickland. He predicts Imavov will win a decision, possibly 30-27 or 29-28, and that Allen may get frustrated.

"I'm going to go nasaden mavo decision win 30 27 maybe 29 28"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Zane picks Imavov because he sees Allen's striking defense as a major liability, especially against a rangy, powerful striker like Imavov. He notes that Allen's recent wins have come against grapplers or lower-tier competition, and he barely squeaked by Chris Curtis. Zane also points out that Imavov is durable and can maintain a steady pace, while Allen tends to struggle when forced to fight off the back foot. He believes this is the point where Allen's upward trajectory plateaus.

Odds: Imavov -209, Allen +182. Zane mentions the odds are reasonable.
"Me too. This is the point where Alan's upward trajectory just plateaus..."
TKO (punches) R4 1:34 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 64 of 109 58% 102 of 152 1 of 1 100% 0 0 6:18
Jared Cannonier 0 82 of 134 61% 106 of 159 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 21 of 32 65% 38 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:05
Jared Cannonier 0 14 of 30 46% 16 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 17 of 32 53% 27 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:16
Jared Cannonier 0 28 of 46 60% 36 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 18 of 30 60% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:57
Jared Cannonier 0 21 of 32 65% 33 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:46
4 Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 19 of 26 73% 21 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 64 of 109 58% 42 of 81 9 of 11 13 of 17 58 of 100 6 of 9 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 82 of 134 61% 61 of 112 16 of 17 5 of 5 64 of 114 17 of 19 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 21 of 32 65% 13 of 23 2 of 2 6 of 7 20 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 14 of 30 46% 7 of 23 4 of 4 3 of 3 12 of 28 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Nassourdine Imavov 17 of 32 53% 12 of 25 3 of 4 2 of 3 15 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 28 of 46 60% 19 of 37 7 of 7 2 of 2 17 of 34 11 of 12 0 of 0
3 Nassourdine Imavov 18 of 30 60% 12 of 23 2 of 2 4 of 5 15 of 25 3 of 5 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 21 of 32 65% 18 of 28 3 of 4 0 of 0 21 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 15 53% 5 of 10 2 of 3 1 of 2 8 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 19 of 26 73% 17 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 20 5 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Angelo picks Jared Cannonier, citing his impressive performance against Marvin Vettori where he showed forward pressure, takedowns, and cardio. He acknowledges that Imavov is good and just dominated Roman Dolidze, but he is impressed with Cannonier's last fight. He thinks the best version of Cannonier wins, and he is crossing his fingers that version shows up.

"I am going to slightly pick Jared caner and the only reason I'm picking him is based off of that last fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Big Brady picks Jared Cannonier to win by split decision. He notes that Cannonier is 40 but looks better than ever, with impressive wins over Marvin Vettori and Sean Strickland. He expects Imavov to have early success but fade, while Cannonier's five-round cardio and takedown defense will allow him to take over. He predicts a close 48-47 split decision.

"I'm going caner I'm going with the 40-year-old caner to get it done maybe losing the first round two rounds but taking over as the fight goes on and and winning a very close 4847 type Split Decision fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Cody picks Cannonier based on his proven cardio, durability, and experience against top competition. He notes Cannonier's ability to maintain high volume over five rounds, as seen in the Marvin Vettori fight where he landed 241 significant strikes. Cody acknowledges the concerns about Cannonier's age (40) and the two-year layoff due to an MCL tear, but believes his gas tank and power will be too much for Imavov, who has shown cardio issues in the past. He expects Cannonier to win a competitive decision.

"I got to go with the back class I got to go with the experience I got to go with the proven cardio The Proven durability The Proven experience the competition level all of that stuff Fades towards Jared koner …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Daniel leans towards Imavov due to his youth, speed, and improved defense since the Strickland fight. He worries about Imavov's high-energy style causing a late fade, allowing Cannonier to take over in the championship rounds. He notes Cannonier's durability and high output, especially in the Vettori fight, but sees Imavov's early movement and speed as key to banking rounds. Ultimately, he calls it a tough fight that could go either way.

"I'm leaning a little bit towards Nasser just a little bit but you know it's this is one where you can realistically see it going either way"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Jacob is very confident in Jared Cannonier, stating he will not pick against him until someone beats him over five rounds. He notes that Imavov might have early success, but Cannonier's veteran savvy and cardio will take over. He predicts Cannonier wins a decision and makes another title run. He considered Cannonier as lock of the week but the odds were too close.

Jared Cannonier wins by decision
"until I see somebody beat Jared Canon there across five rounds I'm not picking against him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Cannonier has power, speed, and explosiveness to crash the pocket and disrupt Imavov's range striking. Imavov may get demoralized when his range control fails, as seen against Strickland. Cannonier can land big shots, change levels for takedowns, and grind out a decision or even a KO. At +105, he's a solid underdog bet.

straight up at +105
"final prediction Jared cir by decision but straight up at plus 105 I think he's that's a that that's a good enough spot to take a trade bet on"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Paul leans towards Cannonier but is hesitant due to the injury and layoff. He notes that Cannonier's price at plus money seems like good value given his resume, but the torn MCL and age are concerns. Paul thinks Cannonier's reach advantage and pressure will be key, and he expects Imavov to struggle with Cannonier's volume and power as the fight goes on. He predicts a competitive fight but sees Cannonier getting the nod.

"I'm still going to go with cener based off of the body of work and that you know pre-injury ability to land insane volume over the course of five rounds against some of the top guys in the division but …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

The Guru picks Cannonier because Imavov slows down in fights and lacks finishing instinct, as seen against Roman Dolidze and Buckley. He notes Cannonier gets better as the fight goes on and can walk Imavov down, chew up his legs, and work him against the cage in the later rounds. He says if it were a three-rounder he'd take Imavov, but in a five-rounder Cannonier builds into it and wins a split decision. He also mentions Cannonier looked phenomenal against Vettori and that Imavov hasn't shown he's clearly better than that level of middleweight.

Split decision prediction; says if three rounds would pick Imavov
"if this was a threee rounder I actually do take a mov to win five rounder I think caner will build into this and I think he'll actually beat imov by decision"
WIN vs Roman Dolidze
Decision (majority) (49–44, 47–47, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 34 of 152 22% 59 of 190 0 of 4 0% 0 1 10:11
Roman Dolidze 1 112 of 189 59% 154 of 248 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:28
Roman Dolidze 1 51 of 75 68% 69 of 109 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:10
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 5 of 30 16% 17 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:43
Roman Dolidze 0 9 of 22 40% 14 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 29 27% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:17
Roman Dolidze 0 20 of 33 60% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
4 Nassourdine Imavov 0 6 of 31 19% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:33
Roman Dolidze 0 14 of 26 53% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
5 Nassourdine Imavov 0 7 of 29 24% 8 of 30 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:10
Roman Dolidze 0 18 of 33 54% 23 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 34 of 152 22% 14 of 113 8 of 13 12 of 26 32 of 145 2 of 7 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 112 of 189 59% 71 of 132 24 of 38 17 of 19 67 of 129 13 of 16 32 of 44
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 33 24% 1 of 20 3 of 3 4 of 10 7 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 51 of 75 68% 35 of 54 9 of 13 7 of 8 18 of 31 5 of 6 28 of 38
2 Nassourdine Imavov 5 of 30 16% 4 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 4 4 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 9 of 22 40% 4 of 16 3 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 29 27% 4 of 22 1 of 2 3 of 5 8 of 25 0 of 4 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 20 of 33 60% 9 of 18 7 of 10 4 of 5 16 of 29 4 of 4 0 of 0
4 Nassourdine Imavov 6 of 31 19% 3 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 14 of 26 53% 10 of 19 1 of 4 3 of 3 12 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2
5 Nassourdine Imavov 7 of 29 24% 2 of 18 2 of 5 3 of 6 7 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 18 of 33 54% 13 of 25 4 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 24 3 of 5 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov but also bets on Roman Dolidze inside the distance. He explains that Dolidze has the power and submissions to finish but cannot be trusted to grapple, as seen in his last fight. He expects Imavov to win by decision, using movement and striking. He places a bet on Dolidze inside the distance with decision no action.

Bet on Roman Dolidze inside the distance (decision no action)
"nardin's going to be the pick... I'm going to do inside the distance decision no action on Roman deled"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady picks Nassourdine Imavov to win a close decision. He notes that Imavov is a minute winner with high volume, while Dolidze is a moment winner with low volume but big shots. The five-round fight favors Imavov, as Dolidze has never gone five rounds and slows down. Brady expects Imavov to outland Dolidze and win a decision, though Dolidze could pull off a surprise finish.

decision, five rounds
"I'm GNA take the imav to win a pretty close decision here I think this does go the full five rounds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Cody acknowledges both fighters are hard to read but leans to Dolidze as a plus money underdog. He notes Dolidze's Georgian toughness, improved cardio, and power, but worries about his low striking volume and reluctance to wrestle. He thinks if Dolidze stands and trades, Imavov's volume could outpoint him, but the dog price is worth a shot.

"plus 170 Roman deletes I'll take that Underdog shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Imavov has cleaner technique and more paths to victory, but Dolidze's forward pressure in a five-round fight could be the difference maker. Imavov needs to stay within himself, pick his shots from distance, and possibly cut Dolidze to sway judges. The host is hesitant due to the line and the five-round duration, but officially picks Imavov by decision.

Dolidze as a potential dog is mentioned, but no specific prop bet.
"I always like going with a fighter that has the cleaner technique more paths to victory... but at minus 160 it's a tough line... at five rounds Del's forward pressure could be the Difference Maker."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Paul is torn on the main event, calling it a pass from a betting perspective. He sees Imavov's cardio issues and Dolidze's size and strength advantages, but notes Dolidze's low output and questionable fight IQ. He slightly leans to Dolidze at plus money but says he likely won't bet it.

"I'll ever so slightly just go with that plus money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov over Roman Dolidze, predicting a third or fourth round TKO. He notes Dolidze is a slugger who struggles against fighters with good footwork on the back foot, which is Imavov's strength. He cites Imavov's performance against Sean Strickland and his wrestling ability to take down Chris Curtis. He believes Imavov will work Dolidze over with front kicks and low kicks, eventually catching him with a one-two down the pipe.

third or fourth round TKO
"I'm gonna go with nasaden mov over Roman delzy... I'll say third or fourth round TKO for nasaden mavo."
LOSS vs Chris Curtis
No Contest (accidental clash of heads) R2 3:04 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 57 of 84 67% 59 of 86 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:22
Chris Curtis 0 26 of 61 42% 34 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 29 of 36 80% 31 of 38 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:07
Chris Curtis 0 15 of 32 46% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 28 of 48 58% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Chris Curtis 0 11 of 29 37% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 57 of 84 67% 27 of 48 8 of 12 22 of 24 54 of 80 3 of 4 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 26 of 61 42% 4 of 28 8 of 18 14 of 15 26 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 29 of 36 80% 11 of 16 4 of 6 14 of 14 28 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 15 of 32 46% 1 of 12 5 of 10 9 of 10 15 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Nassourdine Imavov 28 of 48 58% 16 of 32 4 of 6 8 of 10 26 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 11 of 29 37% 3 of 16 3 of 8 5 of 5 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov, but with hesitation. He notes that Chris Curtis is a great counter-striker but often backs up, which could lead to a decision loss. He believes Imavov's size and forward pressure will earn him a close decision. However, he admits he has never picked a Chris Curtis fight correctly, so he is fading his own pick.

"I picked nasridine which means Chris is going to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady leans towards Imavov because Chris Curtis is a slow starter who often loses the first round. He notes that both fighters are durable with only one KO loss combined, so the fight likely goes to decision. Imavov's early activity should win him the first round, and the later rounds will be close. He picks Imavov by decision.

fight goes to decision
"I do lean towards the Nazarene imove offside is going to be this reason... Chris Curtis is a very slow starter... I don't see him knocking out nazarethov... this fight is Going the Distance more often than not"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Cody picks Imavov, arguing that Curtis has taken too much damage recently (319 significant strikes in 4 fights) and is fighting too frequently. He notes that Curtis' style has reverted to a Philly shell, and he struggles against rangy fighters who stay on the outside. Imavov has speed, youth, and a long jab, and can fight at range. He expects Imavov to stay on the outside and pick Curtis apart.

"I think he just stays at the outside and paints a picture"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Connor agrees with Zane and picks Chris Curtis, though he is hesitant. He likes the way Curtis fights, describing him as a systematic pocket boxer with great hands and defense. Connor worries that Imavov could frustrate Curtis in short bursts, but notes that it's a three-round fight, so two rounds of Imavov's bursts might be enough. He ultimately sides with Curtis because he is a better fighter and more capable of closing doors when momentum shifts.

Curtis over 2.0 +105, currently +131; Imavov opened -116, now -146
"I'll pick I'll I'll stick with you and pick Chris Curtis here. I don't like it, but yeah, you see what I'm saying."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Daniel Levi picks Chris Curtis, agreeing with the co-host that Imavov does not have the volume or gas tank to implement the blueprint to beat Curtis. He notes that Curtis has excellent boxing, takedown defense, and body shots that can sap Imavov's cardio. He points out that Imavov has historically low output and has faded in fights, while Curtis is a dangerous counter-puncher. He believes the line offers value on Curtis.

"I really like Chris Curtis here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2023 (fight day)
Nassourdine Imavov

James picks Imavov to win by 29-28 decision. He thinks Imavov's range control and lead leg work will be key, and that Curtis struggles with fighters who don't stand in the pocket. He expects Imavov to win rounds one and two, with Curtis possibly taking round three. James notes Curtis is a good counter-striker but may take time to find his timing. He suggests live betting Curtis after round one if he loses it, as Curtis will likely be a bigger underdog then.

Chris Curtis KO round 3 at +2100 (small sprinkle)
"I'm calling it about a 29-28 win for a Marvel van"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Imavov's distance striking and kicking game should keep Curtis at range, frustrating his pocket boxing. Curtis has a significant size disadvantage (5-inch height difference) and may struggle to close distance. However, Curtis has KO power and could turn the fight if he drags Imavov into exchanges. Low confidence due to Curtis's finishing ability.

"I feel as though he is just more equipped to win this stylistic matchup not to mention the size disadvantage that Chris Curtis will be at"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Paul leans toward Imavov, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He notes that Curtis struggles to get into the pocket against fighters who stay at range, as seen in the Hermansson fight. The big cage in Vancouver will give Imavov room to move. However, Paul admits he cannot bet against Curtis with his own money because he likes him as a fighter.

"I'm with you I'm picking imov but I couldn't I couldn't I couldn't better but against our guy uh Chris Curtis with my actual money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis as an underdog, noting Imavov slows down in fights and has cardio issues. He believes Curtis has great takedown defense and can stop Imavov's takedowns, making Imavov worry. He also mentions Curtis trains with Sean Strickland, who recently beat Imavov. He predicts Curtis wins by decision, possibly with a third-round TKO.

underdog pick, noted odds
"I am going to be picking Chris Curtis as an underdog here over nasadena mavov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis despite acknowledging that Imavov has the stylistic advantages to frustrate Curtis like Jack Hermansson did. He notes that Imavov is tall, rangy, and faster than Hermansson, but lacks consistency and tends to gas. Zane trusts Curtis's ability to hang around and snatch momentum if Imavov loses a step, and he prefers Curtis's boxing and pocket fighting. He admits it's a bad style matchup but thinks Curtis is the better fighter.

Curtis over 2.0 +105, currently +131; Imavov opened -116, now -146
"I'm gonna pick Curtis here. I think the big the other big thing here is the buckley fight... Curtis is much more capable of taking small swings of momentum and using them to close doors than buckley is."
LOSS vs Sean Strickland
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Strickland 0 182 of 405 44% 194 of 420 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:12
Nassourdine Imavov 0 123 of 269 45% 131 of 277 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Strickland 0 24 of 74 32% 24 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Nassourdine Imavov 0 19 of 50 38% 19 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sean Strickland 0 22 of 72 30% 27 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:49
Nassourdine Imavov 0 22 of 58 37% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean Strickland 0 47 of 78 60% 48 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Sean Strickland 0 57 of 100 57% 60 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Nassourdine Imavov 0 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
5 Sean Strickland 0 32 of 81 39% 35 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
Nassourdine Imavov 0 35 of 65 53% 38 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Strickland 182 of 405 44% 134 of 347 38 of 48 10 of 10 175 of 396 7 of 9 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 123 of 269 45% 67 of 207 41 of 46 15 of 16 104 of 248 19 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Strickland 24 of 74 32% 16 of 64 5 of 7 3 of 3 24 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 19 of 50 38% 8 of 36 8 of 10 3 of 4 19 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean Strickland 22 of 72 30% 13 of 60 8 of 11 1 of 1 21 of 70 1 of 2 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 22 of 58 37% 14 of 50 4 of 4 4 of 4 19 of 54 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Sean Strickland 47 of 78 60% 31 of 61 12 of 13 4 of 4 47 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 24 of 45 53% 12 of 33 9 of 9 3 of 3 23 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Sean Strickland 57 of 100 57% 47 of 87 8 of 11 2 of 2 56 of 99 1 of 1 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 23 of 51 45% 10 of 36 8 of 10 5 of 5 21 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Sean Strickland 32 of 81 39% 27 of 75 5 of 6 0 of 0 27 of 75 5 of 6 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 35 of 65 53% 23 of 52 12 of 13 0 of 0 22 of 51 13 of 14 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nassourdine Imavov vs. Sean Strickland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Imavov (-115), Strickland (-105)

Round 1
We have reached the main event of the evening, one that the organization did not have in mind coming into 2023. Instead of Kelvin Gastelum, rising Frenchman Imavov (12-3, 4-1 UFC) will be battling Strickland (25-5, 12-5 UFC). Rather than fighting at middleweight, the two will be competing at light heavyweight. The weight difference is fairly stark, with Imavov clocking in at 194 pounds, a whole 10 pounds lighter than Strickland (204). Strickland will try to turn things around, as he is currently riding the first losing skid of his career, while Imavov has earned three straight wins on his own ledger. The last fight of the card will be joined by referee Mark Smith, and the two men are happy to be competing tonight and touch gloves. Strickland gets right in his foe’s face, but Imavov is the one striking first with a few straight punches and a low kick. The Frenchman connects with a left hook, and Strickland responds with a one-two down the pipe. Strickland uses his outstretched jab to parry a few punches, and he absorbs a punch at the end of it. Imavov winds up with a huge right hand over the top, and Strickland takes it flush and rolls to fire back with a one-two. Strickland prepares to shoulder roll, and he strings three punches together including a left hand straight down the middle. Strickland throws a front kick, and the two are warned for outstretched fingers while they come together. They hand-fight with long reaches, and Strickland finds an opening to kick the liver. Strickland slaps at the lead calf, and he hops away when Imavov charges. Imavov reaches Strickland with a right, and Strickland responds cleanly in kind to stun Imavov. Strickland reaches his man with punches in bunches, and Imavov tries to spin with a no-look elbow to no avail. Strickland rushes forward, pushing the pace and throwing hands, and he eats a few punches and swings much harder than he has in several fights. The wild swings of “Tarzan” lead into a clinch, and he presses Imavov to the wall and scores a short left on the break. Strickland leans back from a jab, and he absorbs a front kick and swats away a leaping right hand. Strickland gets in a jab as he works his way forward, and he wings a huge right hand that skims off the Frenchman’s hair. Imavov ducks and uses the top of his skull to block a punch, and Strickland does not blink and continues to walk forward. The American sees a telegraphed overhand right come at him so that he can counter with three or four punches, and these two overcommit to several powerful blows that blow back the hair of those seated in the first row of the Apex. Strickland plods forward, landing two punches and getting tied up right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 2
The middleweight expats meet right in the center of the cage to begin the second round, and they continue practically right where they left off. Strickland leads the dance, coming forward and pressuring the Frenchman actively. Imavov swings wildly, with a huge right hand skimming past Strickland’s shoulder. Strickland kicks the body and strings a few punches into the combination to follow, and this leads to a clinch. Strickland protests that Imavov is grabbing his glove, but Smith does not intervene or remark on it. The fighters split up, and Strickland puts a one-two together and unloads with a hellacious right hand on the button. Imavov absorbs it surprisingly, and he starts swinging back dangerously. Both men are wearing it and slightly hurt from the brief brawl that ensued. Strickland changes levels suddenly to trip Imavov to the mat, but he cannot hold him there for long. Imavov walks up the wall with it at his back, and he pushes off with a front kick to gain some space. Imavov lands a right hand, and Strickland replies with a one-two and a wild right hand. Neither fighter appears quite the technical wizard as per usual as they flail and swing awkwardly arcing punches at one another, and this results in one more clinch. Imavov eventually escapes, and he times a Strickland jab to smash him in the face with a right hand. Strickland gets shoved back with a knee, elbow and punch, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Imavov

Round 3
Round 3 begins with tit-for-tat strikes from one man and the other. Strickland breaks up this exchange with a leg kick, and he nails the Frenchman with a left hand and a right to follow. Imavov welcomes the brief brawl, and they both score with punishing blows and either budge an inch. They break away from their proverbial phone-booth fight to let Imavov circle on the outside, and he flirts with a high kick and suddenly reaches with a straight right hand. Strickland rolls with a punch and scores a left, and he cannot get out of the way from a left on the jaw. With his chin tucked, Strickland does not bat an eye, and the two proceed to stand right in front of one another punching the other in the face. Strickland catches the hands of his opponent and swipes out a left hand, and he marches forward to snap out a few jabs. Imavov dives into a single that misses by a mile, and Strickland lets him back up and shrugs off a few punches. When Imavov kicks low, Strickland counters him with a left over the top. Strickland jabs his way in to closer exchanges, and he scoops a right hand that slugs right into Imavov’s chops. Imavov bounces on his feet to shake things off, and they trade front kicks to the belly. Strickland times a counter on the jaw, and the pace has understandably slowed after how hard the two not-middleweights were throwing for the first few rounds. Strickland jabs, Imavov responds, and this spurs Strickland into action with a big right hand and a left. Imavov cannot dodge a body kick, and he lets Strickland grab him and tries to spin with an elbow. Strickland ducks it after landing a front kick, and the round comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 4
The championship rounds have been reached, and this is a first for France’s Imavov. Strickland flusters him out of the gate with a low kick, a body kick and several jabs. Strickland pushes out a one-two before Imavov can respond, and Imavov pushes forward but only hand-fights. Strickland kicks the ribs and smacks Imavov with another fierce one-two, and this leads to Imavov grabbing his hands standing. Imavov presses forward with his shoulder into a clinch situation, but Strickland shrugs it off and gets back to his preferred striking range. Strickland paws out a few punches and gets his head snapped back with a left, but he drives the ball of his foot to the body in response. Imavov swats kicks his foe’s way, but they are half-hearted. Imavov absorbs a few punches from up top, and he answers by throwing fire. Strickland pops Imavov with a right hand, and his sheer momentum knocks Imavov to his back. Strickland does not want to take him to the ground, and instead they return to the clinch up against the cage wall. Strickland uses his full body weight as a weapon, as if he wanted to squeeze Imavov through the fence like French Play-Do. Imavov manages to break off and escape with a right hand over the guard, and Strickland makes him pay with a short combination. Strickland is confident in his approach, calmly walking the French fighter down and smacking him upside the head with his fists. Imavov flails and tries to parry the blows with his outstretched arms, but Strickland still manages to find his dome repeatedly. Imavov bends over upon receipt of a body kick, and Strickland pours it on with several more unanswered blows. Imavov goes for a clinch, and Strickland walks him from one side of the cage to the other before releasing him gingerly. The round ends, and both men appear spent.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 5
The last round commences, and Strickland strikes first with a front kick and a few punches. Imavov swings back as his punches careen off the guard, and Strickland snipes him from afar. When Imavov tries to come out swinging, Strickland intercepts him with a front kick to the belly. Imavov unloads with heavy blows, and Strickland wears them well and greets him in the middle of the cage with a flurry of his own. The two close in as they fatigue after an exchange, and they clinch up. Imavov changes his offense to slashing elbows from up tight, and Strickland dodges the brunt of them and splits. Strickland punches his way to close the distance, and Imavov catches him and tries to slice him with elbows. Strickland breaks off and connects with a jab, before going back to the clinch to frustrate the Frenchman. “Tarzan” takes the most dangerous tools away from a desperate Imavov with the clinches, and he uses his jabs and twos to keep Imavov honest. Imavov tries to break off when Strickland latches on to him, or gets off a singular elbow, but they are not enough to stave Strickland off. Imavov breaks off and looses a fury of blows, and Strickland retaliates with a slow but steady barrage. Imavov smashes two elbows on the orbital, and he pushes Strickland to the wall and breaks free. Strickland ducks down and right into an elbow, and Imavov meets him with a knee up the middle. Imavov throws with everything he has, swinging recklessly and wildly while Strickland is doing some of the same. Imavov ducks two booming hooks, and Strickland nods and motion down to the floor. The two fighters give it everything they have with an exhausted swarm of punches, knees, elbows and anything else they come up with. Strickland bullies Imavov back to the wall, and the final horn blares to signal an end to the fight card. The short turnaround appeared to work in his favor, as he should right the ship after this 25-minute affair. Next week, the UFC takes to Brazil for the first time in years. Two belts will be on the line, including one in the UFC’s very first tetralogy match, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (48-47 Strickland)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (48-47 Strickland)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (48-47 Strickland)

The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Nassourdine Imavov via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Imavov because he believes Sean Strickland is a broken fighter after the Alex Pereira knockout. He notes Strickland's recent losses and short notice, while Imavov has power and grappling. He thinks Strickland's jab-heavy style won't be enough and Imavov controls the pace. He mentions Imavov's cardio concerns are overblown and that Strickland's only path is if Imavov tires.

"I gotta go with imov off here and I think you get some really good money on him at minus 109"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Big Brady picks Kelvin Gastelum for the upset, citing concerns about Imavov's cardio over five rounds. He notes that Imavov faded in the third round of his fight against Buckley and has never gone five rounds, while Gastelum has championship-round experience against top competition. He believes Gastelum's wrestling could be a key path to victory, taking Imavov down to tire him out and avoid striking exchanges. However, he admits he doesn't feel great about the pick and likely won't bet on the fight.

Not betting on this fight; Gastelum by decision
"I'm gonna take a gaslim here for the upset I don't feel great about it like I said I'm very high in imovob but the five rounds scares the crap out of me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Cody picks Strickland, citing his durability, high striking volume (e.g., 152 against Cannonier), and takedown defense. He notes Imavov's questionable cardio and level of competition (outside top 15). He expects a 25-minute fight or a late stoppage by Strickland, but acknowledges the line is 50/50 and not a high-confidence play.

"I think I'm gonna lean towards Sean Strickland think this one probably goes to 25 minutes if not like a late fourth or fifth round stoppage by Sean Strickland"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Connor picks Strickland because Imavov has yet to look like a comfortable three-round fighter, often fading in the third round due to inefficient movement and tension. He notes that Strickland is insanely durable, calm, and consistent round to round, and that Imavov's style of head-hunting and inefficient striking will be a problem against Strickland's pressure. Connor also mentions that Imavov has feasted on shorter opponents and struggled against fighters who can get into range and trade, which Strickland does well. He acknowledges the short notice and weight change but believes Strickland's constant training mitigates those factors.

Odds: Strickland opened +145, dropped to -120, currently -110. Imavov opened -170, jumped to +100, currently -112. Connor says he's okay with even odds given the short notice and last-minute change.
"I'm going to bank with you that he's a guy who always stays ready. Who's always sparring. He doesn't need to gameplay and he's not going to come in with something wildly different."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Jacob is confident in Imavov, having bet him at +100. He argues Strickland is overrated and not the same after the Pereira loss, citing his inactivity in the Cannonier fight. He believes Imavov's power at 205 will be too much and Strickland will be tentative. He sees Strickland's only path to victory if Imavov gasses, but thinks Imavov showed heart against Buckley.

Bet at +100 for premium members
"I jumped on at plus 100 I don't think you're gonna see that again"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Paul leans towards Imavov because he has been preparing for this card while Strickland is coming off a short-notice fight and the holidays. He questions Strickland's training and notes that judges are crediting damaging strikes more than volume jabs. However, he is not rushing to bet this fight, calling it a 50/50 main event.

"I'm gonna ever lean ever so slightly towards Nassar Dean imov he's been getting ready for this exact card I don't know what Strickland's really been up to"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Zane picks Strickland because he believes Imavov's style is a bad matchup for him. He notes that Imavov is dependent on physically bullying opponents and hasn't experienced someone who pushes back in physical tie-ups like Strickland. Zane also points out that Imavov's cardio issues are likely due to being too tense and inefficient, not weight cutting, and that Strickland doesn't give anything away. He acknowledges the size difference but thinks Strickland's consistency and pressure will be key.

Odds: Strickland opened +145, dropped to -120, currently -110. Imavov opened -170, jumped to +100, currently -112. Zane says he's okay with even odds.
"I got to pick Strickland here. Like I if I'm just thinking about this fight from a base point, like thinking of the tape I've been watching, thinking of how much him evolve is willing to let his opponents dictate …"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 51 of 109 46% 68 of 142 2 of 7 28% 2 0 3:56
Joaquin Buckley 0 46 of 174 26% 55 of 183 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 15 of 35 42% 21 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:43
Joaquin Buckley 0 10 of 48 20% 13 of 51 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 56 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:10
Joaquin Buckley 0 10 of 45 22% 12 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:03
Joaquin Buckley 0 26 of 81 32% 30 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 51 of 109 46% 40 of 90 9 of 13 2 of 6 36 of 88 8 of 10 7 of 11
Joaquin Buckley 46 of 174 26% 27 of 145 8 of 13 11 of 16 44 of 171 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 15 of 35 42% 11 of 29 4 of 5 0 of 1 6 of 21 4 of 5 5 of 9
Joaquin Buckley 10 of 48 20% 3 of 35 1 of 4 6 of 9 10 of 47 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Nassourdine Imavov 14 of 30 46% 12 of 24 1 of 3 1 of 3 12 of 28 0 of 0 2 of 2
Joaquin Buckley 10 of 45 22% 4 of 37 3 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nassourdine Imavov 22 of 44 50% 17 of 37 4 of 5 1 of 2 18 of 39 4 of 5 0 of 0
Joaquin Buckley 26 of 81 32% 20 of 73 4 of 4 2 of 4 24 of 79 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joaquin Buckley vs. Nassourdine Imavov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Imavov (-255), Buckley (+215)

Round 1
On fight day, this relatively high-stakes middleweight tilt shifted from the prelims to the “featured fight of the night” slot, as proud Frenchman Imavov (11-3, 3-1 UFC) is a member of the top 15 in his division. Buckley (15-4, 5-2 UFC), the owner of a number of highlight-reel victories including one of the greatest knockouts in the history of the sport, will face him as he seeks to make the Parisian audience sad and chalk up one more name on his ledger. This potentially violent clash at 185 pounds will draw officiating from referee Marc Goddard, who is nearly forced to step in when the two angrily meet in the middle of the cage before what might be a magnificent melee. Buckley is already the least popular man in the building right now, and he starts off aggressively with a high kick that bounces off the shoulder. Imavov shrugs it off and comes forward, with a more traditional martial arts stance, prepared for the head kick that will almost certainly come towards him. One more does fly, and Imavov ignores it and tries to reach out with his jab. While they measure one another with range strikes, commentator Michael Bisping gives his best Mr. T impression. Buckley throws a low kick, and the Frenchman meets him with a straight right hand over the top. Imavov aims an uppercut when Buckley closes the distance, but the American plays it off and clinches up. Buckley separates, and Imavov follows him enraged. They slug it out, and a front kick from Imavov sends Buckley’s mouthpiece goes flying. Goddard steps in to allow Buckley to replace it, and Imavov ignores him and wants to keep fighting. Goddard lays down the law, shoving the French fighter back until they reset. When they resume, Imavov kicks and falls over, and he springs back up to attack with a right hand that drops Buckley to a knee against the wire. Buckley powers his way back up and throws and elbow, and he wings a pair of punches as Imavov talks at him. “New Mansa” kicks the leg, and he swarms forward with punches that Imavov rolls with. Imavov sticks him with a jab, and he uses his head movement and footwork to evade the lion’s share of a long combination from Buckley. The American does land a punch as he surges forward, but Imavov escapes largely untouched and resets. Buckley comes up short with a low kick, and Imavov comes in with a knee to intercept a high kick. Buckley pushes Imavov against the fence, and he fires off an elbow as Imavov responds in kind. Imavov counters a rushing takedown from Buckley to push the American on his back, and he climbs right to full mount and begins to batter Buckley with unanswered punches. Buckley turns over to his belly and shells up, but before the stoppage can materialize, Buckley is saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Imavov

Round 2
Imavov keeps both hands outstretched as the second round opens, with neither man committing to much of a strike in the first 30 seconds. Buckley lands a low kick, and as he rushes forward, Imavov pops him with a pair of right hands that send Buckley running to the side. Buckley gathers himself and darts in with an overhand left, and Imavov pushes him off with his hand and jams him in the eye with his thumb. Goddard issues a hard warning to Imavov for his fingers outstretched and eye pokes, and they get back to it after a few seconds. Buckley is fired up and throws big punches, and Imavov stays moving and away from the worst of the strikes. Imavov catches Buckley on the way in with longer punches, with his range and footwork giving Buckley fits. Buckley walks through a left hand so that he can clip the Frenchman with a pair of huge left hands, and Imavov rolls with the punches and escapes out the side as the back of his head bumps a cameraman. Buckley throws caution to the wind as he jumps in and out, and his strike attempts force him to move quickly in and out so that Imavov cannot snipe him from a distance. Imavov times a lunging strike to duck down and hit a double, and he puts Buckley down on the mat with emphasis. Imavov steps over to half guard on the side to start blasting Buckley in the face, and Buckley turns in hopes of standing but ends up giving up his back. Imavov is quick to hook in the body triangle without crushing it tightly, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke. The Frenchman cannot get his forearm under the chin, so he crushes on the face, but Buckley grits it out and turns his head enough to lessen the squeeze. Imavov starts talking to Buckley as he goes for chokes, and he belts him with an elbow that slashes a cut open as blood sprays from the side of Buckley’s head. Imavov squeezes for another choke, and Buckley’s mouthpiece squirts out of his mouth. Imavov slaps Buckley on the side of the head repeatedly with an open palm until the round ends, and he does not immediately get up and let Buckley go, forcing Goddard to once more get involved.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Imavov

Round 3
Cooler heads prevail to start off the last round, and Buckley opens up as the immediate aggressor, knowing he is down on the scorecards. Buckley chops down the lead leg of his opponent on both sides, and he shrugs off an uppercut that catches him about as cleanly as one can so that he can brawl. Buckley leaps forward into action, and he tags Imavov several times and knocks the Frenchman back to the wire. Imavov breaks free of a clinch and threatens with a takedown, but Buckley is upright and able to keep coming strong. Buckley starts swinging wildly, with Mortal Kombat-esque uppercuts and ridiculously arcing punches that slam into Imavov’s guard again and again. Buckley is putting everything he has into the punches, and Imavov is able to slip most of them and block many of the others. A few get through, but Imavov’s chin is able to tank them, and he is able to counter effectively and keep Buckley honest. Buckley telegraphs with wide swings, and they come in combinations and not as single strikes. Buckley puts his foot on the gas, lobbing bombs, and Imavov is able to wear them as he begins to fatigue. The Frenchman attempts to take the fight down, and Buckley has none of it and keeps winging haymakers. Imavov tries his best to slow the fight down, and Buckley cracks him with an elbow and fires off an eight-punch hook combination. Buckley stuffs a takedown and fires a blistering knee that would have felled lesser men, but Imavov is ironclad in front of him. Buckley pushes off of a clinch with sheer muscle, tripping Imavov to the mat, but he does not follow. He lets Imavov back up so that he can load up on one last series of punches. Imavov showboats and salutes the crowd as he ducks and dips most of Buckley’s wild strikes, and he pops Buckley in the chops a few times just to keep active on his own end. As the last few seconds tick off the clock, “New Mansa” pours it on to chase a finish, and Imavov is simply too evasive to absorb much of the onslaught. The fight ends, and Buckley collapses to his back, totally spent. What a brawl this turned into. As the 15-minute furious fight comes to a close, the two appear to squash their beef, and for good reason, as they just threw down for three hard rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (29-28 Imavov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (29-28 Imavov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (29-28 Imavov)

The Official Result
Nassourdine Imavov def. Joaquin Buckley via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley as a lean because he believes Buckley is faster, more powerful, and more dangerous in a kickboxing match. He notes Imavov doesn't use takedowns much, so it becomes a striking fight. He suggests betting under on rounds or fight doesn't go the distance, and recommends a win inside distance decision no action prop for Buckley.

Under on rounds (1.5); fight does not go the distance; win inside distance decision no action
"i do like buckley here and even though he's a good grappler imam doesn't really have those takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady picks Nassourdine Imavov to win by knockout in the second round. He believes Imavov is the better striker and more durable, while Buckley gets hurt often and has been knocked out multiple times. He expects Buckley to have moments, but Imavov will eventually land a big shot and finish him.

second round knockout
"give me involved to win by knockout i say second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Cody leans toward Nassourdine Imavov but is not confident. He notes that Imavov has looked better recently, but his takedown defense and cardio are questionable. Buckley is physically strong and has power, but he is inconsistent and has poor cardio. Cody thinks the fight could go either way and prefers the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +155.

Fight goes to decision (+155)
"I'm leaning towards notre dame imav to get the win but actually what i think is actually the best value um of this fight his fight goes to decision is plus 155."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Daniel Levi leans toward Nassourdine Imavov but thinks the -275 price is too steep. He acknowledges Buckley's improvements and power, but believes Imavov is the better fighter with reach and straight punches. He does not bet.

"I do lean nazarian imavov man for sure I just don't know if I minus 275 is not a lean price"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The host likes Imavov's recent improvements, especially his takedown defense and range striking. He believes Imavov will keep the fight at distance, use his kicks, and avoid Buckley's power. He expects Imavov to win by decision, though he notes the -255 price is a bit steep. He also considers the over 1.5 rounds if the line is favorable.

over 1.5 rounds (minus 160 to minus 150)
"I like Imavov here minus 255 a little bit out of my price range honestly."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Paul also leans toward Imavov but is hesitant. He agrees with Cody that the line is scary and that Buckley has a puncher's chance. Paul mentions that Imavov is fighting in France, which could be an advantage, but he is not confident enough to bet the moneyline.

"I kind of agree... i just think the line kind of scares me off of it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley as an underdog over Nassourdine Imavov. He believes Buckley has improved significantly since his early UFC losses and has momentum, while Imavov has been inactive and may overlook Buckley. He compares Buckley's style to Mike Tyson's head movement and hooks, which he thinks will trouble Imavov's inside game. He predicts Buckley will win a 29-28 decision, winning the first two rounds and losing the third.

Buckley wins by decision 29-28
"i'm gonna go with joaquin buckley here over nasa dina mavov i like a nice joaquin buckley underdog pick"
Roman Dolidze - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 10 of 34 29% 40 of 94 3 of 4 75% 0 0 7:07
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 54 of 99 54% 78 of 125 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 2 of 6 33% 3 of 7 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:33
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 16 of 29 55% 23 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
2 Roman Dolidze 0 5 of 19 26% 9 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:33
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 20 of 44 45% 28 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
3 Roman Dolidze 0 3 of 9 33% 28 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 18 of 26 69% 27 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 10 of 34 29% 8 of 31 0 of 0 2 of 3 9 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 54 of 99 54% 18 of 52 6 of 12 30 of 35 51 of 92 1 of 4 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 16 of 29 55% 5 of 17 2 of 3 9 of 9 13 of 24 1 of 2 2 of 3
2 Roman Dolidze 5 of 19 26% 4 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 20 of 44 45% 6 of 24 3 of 5 11 of 15 20 of 42 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Roman Dolidze 3 of 9 33% 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 18 of 26 69% 7 of 11 1 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Angelo picks Christian Leroy Duncan because of his speed, athleticism, and striking advantage. He notes Roman Dolidze is a world champion grappler but doesn't always use his wrestling and has poor fight IQ. He is not betting on this fight because Roman can be dangerous on any given day and CLD is not a genius himself.

avoiding betting; Roman Dez inside distance no action bet screwed him last time
"I got to pick CLLD. I think the speed's going to be a big difference. I think the athleticism is going to be a big difference, but I'm not going to bet on this because I recognize how good Roman …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Big Brady confidently picks Christian Leroy Duncan, noting that Duncan is seven years younger, much quicker, and has more variety on the feet. He points out that Roman Dolidze looked bad in his last fight against Fluffy Hernandez and doesn't wrestle enough (less than one takedown per 15 minutes). He thinks Duncan will pick apart Dolidze over 15 minutes and win a decision, as Dolidze is tough but unlikely to get the fight to the ground.

Christian Leroy Duncan by decision
"I kind of think Duncan's going to style a little bit here. Give me Duncan to win this fight and win it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Cody agrees, citing Duncan's dynamic striking and Dolidze's susceptibility to speed. He expects a finish or clear decision for Duncan.

"I got Christian Leroy Duncan minus 500."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Connor picks Duncan but is hesitant, agreeing with Zane that the fight could be ugly. He notes that Duncan has a 'meme fighter' aura and can look like a killer in bursts, but lacks a clear idea of how to win rounds. Connor points out that Dolidze is a big, strong galoot who is happy to hold opponents against the fence. He thinks the odds are too wide and calls it more of a coin flip.

Duncan opened at -300, currently -500; Dolidze opened at +215, currently +385.
"I don't understand what the odds are on this. Honestly, like Christian Leroy Duncan got out worked by Armand Petrosian... And like I would pick Roman Dolidze to beat Armand Petrosian."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Daniel is high on CLD, believing his speed and athleticism will be too much for Dolidze. He thinks CLD will have a breakout performance and knock Dolidze out, giving him his first real knockout loss. He notes Dolidze's gas tank issues and CLD's improved fight IQ.

"I think that the speed difference here, Marlo, is going to be like, 'Oh, man. Like oh, shit.' And I think that Saturday night this will be CLD's breakout and coming-out performance."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Daniel Vreeland picks Christian Leroy Duncan to win by knockout. He highlights Duncan's athleticism, speed, and recent improvements, while noting Dolidze is older and slower. He expects Duncan to land at will and eventually finish Dolidze.

"I think that Christian Leroy Duncan is going to have his breakout performance against Roman Lee."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Duncan is a favorable stylistic matchup for the British fighter. Dolidze is old, slow, and flat-footed; Duncan is fast, athletic, and accurate. Duncan should dominate on the feet and win easily. The price is too steep to bet, but Duncan should win comfortably.

Under 2.5 rounds is interesting; Duncan -3.5 fight spread at 1.50 is worth considering.
"I think he dances around Ledezma and lights him up in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

James picks Christian Leroy Duncan, believing he is the much better striker and will knock out Roman Dolidze. He notes that Dolidze is not a great wrestler and will struggle to take Duncan down. He thinks Duncan's dynamic strikes and clinch work will be too much.

"Christian Leroy Duncan is going to knock out Roman Ditz this weekend in my opinion."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

The host picks Christian Leroy Duncan by knockout but is hesitant due to the wide line. He notes Duncan's improved clinch game and knockout power, but warns that Dolidze's pressure and toughness could cause Duncan to break mentally. He expects Duncan to land big shots and get the KO, but advises caution.

"I'm going to go Duncan. Duncan by knockout, but just be a little bit skeptical about what Delise could potentially do to Duncan here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Paul sees Duncan as the younger, faster fighter heading in the right direction, while Dolidze is declining. He expects Duncan to win by KO or decision.

"I'm going with CLD. Christian Leroy Duncan. It's exactly like you said. It's two guys headed in opposite directions."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

The MMA Guru picks Christian Leroy Duncan to finish Roman Dolidze in round two or three. He praises Duncan's chin, composure, and dynamic striking, noting he took big shots from Gregory Rodrigues. He criticizes Dolidze as a plodding, technical grappler who was outgrappled by Anthony Hernandez. He expects Duncan to win the low kick battle, defend takedowns, and land a brutal combination.

finish in round two or three
"I think he'll get a brutal finish over Roman Dizzy in round two or three."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

Zane picks Duncan but is hesitant, noting several ways the fight could be terrible. He believes Duncan is a better striker and has 70% takedown defense, which should be enough against Dolidze's poor wrestling. However, he worries that Dolidze's strength and clinch work could lead to a grinding fight. Zane sees Duncan's path to a showcase win but acknowledges Dolidze is a tough, strong fighter who can make it ugly.

Duncan opened at -300, currently -500; Dolidze opened at +215, currently +385.
"I think I'm going to take Duncan, but like I said, I can see, like, three or four, three ways this fight could just be terrible."
Submission R4 2:45 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 36 of 107 33% 39 of 110 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Anthony Hernandez 0 91 of 152 59% 120 of 187 9 of 11 81% 1 0 7:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 10 of 31 32% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Anthony Hernandez 0 19 of 37 51% 21 of 39 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:50
2 Roman Dolidze 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 44 of 73 60% 52 of 83 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:47
3 Roman Dolidze 0 4 of 16 25% 4 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 18 of 27 66% 28 of 38 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:28
4 Roman Dolidze 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Hernandez 0 10 of 15 66% 19 of 27 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 36 of 107 33% 25 of 88 4 of 11 7 of 8 34 of 101 2 of 6 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 91 of 152 59% 67 of 128 6 of 6 18 of 18 48 of 102 13 of 18 30 of 32
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 10 of 31 32% 5 of 25 0 of 1 5 of 5 9 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 19 of 37 51% 11 of 29 1 of 1 7 of 7 16 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Roman Dolidze 20 of 52 38% 15 of 42 3 of 7 2 of 3 19 of 49 1 of 3 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 44 of 73 60% 38 of 67 2 of 2 4 of 4 22 of 47 7 of 11 15 of 15
3 Roman Dolidze 4 of 16 25% 3 of 13 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 18 of 27 66% 11 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 5 5 of 13 0 of 0 13 of 14
4 Roman Dolidze 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Hernandez 10 of 15 66% 7 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 8 3 of 4 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Angelo leans Anthony Hernandez, citing his incredible cardio and pace. He notes Hernandez is a good grappler but Roman Dolidze is a phenomenal grappler with power. Angelo thinks Hernandez will take over in later rounds with pressure, similar to Umar vs Morab. He expects Hernandez to win a decision after giving up early rounds.

"I am going to lean Anthony Hernandez here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady is confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling him a future champion with an unmatched pace. He acknowledges Dolidze's power and tricky grappling, but believes Hernandez will survive the early rounds and take over as Dolidze's cardio fades. Brady predicts a late finish, specifically a fifth-round TKO.

fifth round knockout
"I'm going to go with Hernandez here. I'm going to take him to win by fifth round knockout TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Connor picks Anthony Hernandez because Hernandez has a clear, consistent game plan focused on relentless wrestling and pace, while Dolidze is clumsy, slow, and has poor takedown defense. He notes that Hernandez's cardio and mental toughness are key, and that Dolidze's only path to victory is an opportunistic finish early. Connor compares it to Ngannou vs. Gane, where the smaller wrestler exhausts the bigger opponent.

Odds mentioned: Dolidze opened +145, jumped to +285, currently +270; Hernandez opened -170, currently -330.
"You have to pick Anthony Hernandez. He's the only guy who seems like a good middleweight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The host expects Hernandez to utilize his classic smothering grappling game and put it on Dolidze. He acknowledges Dolidze will land big shots early, but believes Hernandez can eat them and eventually break Dolidze, leading to a round four or five finish by submission.

submission, round 4 or 5
"look for him to utilize his classic smothering grappling game and really putting it on to and as long as he can eat a few big shots early that are definitely going to land from I think it's just a …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze, highlighting his underrated jiu-jitsu and ability to attack from his back. He believes Dolidze's size and presence on the feet will trouble Hernandez, who relies on volume. He predicts a submission or ground-and-pound TKO in round two or three, possibly after hurting Hernandez on the feet.

Dolidze wins by submission or TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Roman Dizzier. ... I think Ditzi's got a perfect anti-grappler style."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Hernandez's wrestling process is relentless and that Dolidze's takedown defense is terrible (33%). He notes that Hernandez is a smaller middleweight but has great cardio, while Dolidze is a big, lumbering oaf who gasses. Zane thinks Hernandez will exhaust Dolidze against the cage and eventually get a finish.

Odds mentioned: Dolidze opened +145, jumped to +285, currently +270; Hernandez opened -170, currently -330.
"Yeah, he's the only guy who seems like a good middleweight."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marvin Vettori 0 111 of 220 50% 112 of 221 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 141 of 338 41% 141 of 340 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marvin Vettori 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 17 of 52 32% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marvin Vettori 0 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 31 of 66 46% 31 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marvin Vettori 0 22 of 34 64% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 18 of 62 29% 18 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
4 Marvin Vettori 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 37 of 71 52% 37 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Marvin Vettori 0 29 of 60 48% 30 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 38 of 87 43% 38 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marvin Vettori 111 of 220 50% 72 of 173 8 of 11 31 of 36 110 of 218 1 of 2 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 141 of 338 41% 85 of 253 20 of 36 36 of 49 137 of 332 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marvin Vettori 19 of 38 50% 8 of 26 2 of 2 9 of 10 19 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 17 of 52 32% 9 of 40 2 of 2 6 of 10 17 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marvin Vettori 20 of 45 44% 12 of 36 0 of 0 8 of 9 20 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 31 of 66 46% 18 of 50 2 of 3 11 of 13 31 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marvin Vettori 22 of 34 64% 16 of 26 3 of 4 3 of 4 22 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 18 of 62 29% 12 of 50 2 of 8 4 of 4 17 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Marvin Vettori 21 of 43 48% 12 of 32 0 of 1 9 of 10 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 37 of 71 52% 24 of 51 4 of 7 9 of 13 36 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Marvin Vettori 29 of 60 48% 24 of 53 3 of 4 2 of 3 28 of 58 1 of 2 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 38 of 87 43% 22 of 62 10 of 16 6 of 9 36 of 83 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze over Marvin Vettori in the rematch. He cites Vettori's two-year layoff, a rumored shoulder injury, and Dolidze's progression since their first fight. Angelo notes Dolidze has improved his striking and grappling activity, and he likes the 'win inside distance, decision no action' prop for Dolidze because he can finish and is durable.

Win inside distance, decision no action (Roman Dolidze)
"I got to go Roman here. Roman has picked up the striking activity he's picked up the grappling activity he got the hair done up and I think he can get it done here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori, arguing that the first fight was close but Vettori outlanded Dolidze in two of three rounds. He emphasizes that this is a five-round fight, which favors Vettori's superior cardio and minute-winning style, while Dolidze is not a five-round fighter and needs a finish to win. Brady believes Vettori's takedown defense will keep the fight standing, where he will outwork Dolidze. He predicts a decision win for Vettori, though he expresses concern about corrupt judges.

Vettori by decision
"I got to go vtori here... I think vtori wins this fight and wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody believes Hernandez's weaponized gas tank and constant pressure will eventually break Dolidze, especially in a five-round fight. He notes Hernandez is a slow starter and has durability issues, but expects him to take over in later rounds. He suggests live betting Hernandez after the first round for better value.

"I do got him. I don't love the price, but five rounds is built for three round fight at this price. I'm thinking of the dog. I actually am five round fight. That's enough for me to go Fluffy's way. …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Connor picks Vettori despite acknowledging the X-factors of injury and camp change, because he believes Vettori's Kings MMA programming makes him durable and consistent. He notes that Vettori's style of moving forward and punching is hard to break, and that Dolidze's unathletic brawling may not be enough to overcome Vettori's pressure. However, he expresses concern that Vettori might try to be too technical after the layoff.

Odds: Vettori opened -127, now -149; Dolidze opened +107, now +132. Connor mentions the line seems logical.
"I'm going to take Marvin Vittori still."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel picks Roman Dolidze as a plus money underdog, acknowledging the speed and movement advantage of Imavov but believing Dolidze's dangerous finishing ability and durability give him a chance over five rounds. He notes Dolidze's cardio concerns but thinks Imavov fades harder, and that Dolidze's leg lock threat is mitigated by Imavov's training with Ciryl Gane. He is not confident, calling it a tough fight where he could be frustrated if Dolidze gets outpointed.

"I kind of feel like I should just because I'm picking like a plus 150 dog out right but I I'm not delusional and I know what the concerns are"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

The host expects Vettori to replicate his previous decision win, using his ability to mix it up in the clinch and improved striking to shut down Dolidze's overaggressive nature. He predicts Vettori will outpoint, out strike, and out grapple Dolidze to win on the scorecards.

"I expect him to replicate that result here as I believe his ability to mix it up in the clinch and land his improving striking approach should be able to shut down the overaggressive nature of Del's game look for …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
Roman Dolidze

Paul thinks Dolidze has improved striking and can exploit Hernandez's questionable standup and body vulnerability. He believes the market has overcooked Hernandez and sees value in Dolidze as a dog. He plans to wait for better odds, possibly plus 300 on fight day.

"I think it's deletes. He's shown more in the striking. Like I the biggest like he he absolutely crushed me against Victoria and there was nothing I could really say about it except for the fact that I really really …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze, believing he could have won the first fight. He notes Dolidze's momentum with three fights in 2024, including wins over Anthony Smith and Kevin Holland, showing improvement. He questions Marvin Vettori's activity and recovery from the Cannonier beatdown and an injury. He thinks Dolidze's finishing potential and size advantage are key, and he predicts a 48-47 decision win for Dolidze, though a finish is possible. He also notes Dolidze is an underdog.

Dolidze is an underdog; predicted 48-47 decision.
"I'm actually going to go with Roman delzy over Marvin vtori... I'm going to say he wins this one 48 47 decision but if there is a finish I think it will go to delzy as well"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Zane picks Dolidze based on the suspicion that Vettori's long layoff and potential camp change to American Top Team could disrupt his game. He notes that Vettori backed up a lot and got hit hard in their first fight, and that Dolidze came worryingly close to outworking him. However, he acknowledges Dolidze's unathletic style and that Vettori is durable and hard to put away.

Odds: Vettori opened -127, now -149; Dolidze opened +107, now +132. Zane mentions the line seems logical.
"I'm going to say to Lizzie just on that suspicion."
WIN vs Kevin Holland
TKO (corner stoppage) R1 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 19 of 33 57% 57 of 101 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kevin Holland 0 18 of 28 64% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 19 of 33 57% 57 of 101 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kevin Holland 0 18 of 28 64% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 19 of 33 57% 16 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 23
Kevin Holland 18 of 28 64% 5 of 13 3 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 19 of 33 57% 16 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 23
Kevin Holland 18 of 28 64% 5 of 13 3 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-162), Dolidze (+136)

Round 1
Stepping in for fellow Xtreme Couture product Chris Curtis, Dolidze (13-3, 7-3 UFC) will drop down in weight for this middleweight matchup. He stands across the cage from Holland (26-11, 1 NC; 13-8, 1 NC UFC), content to let his fists do the talking. The men that share knockout rates of 54% apiece will be joined in the cage by referee Jason Herzog. They opt to clap hands, and a front kick from Holland follows shortly thereafter. Dolidze takes the center of the cage but cannot get out of the way from two more kicks, and Holland jumps forward to reach him with a left hook around the guard. Holland slaps a pair of low kicks on the inner thigh, and he strafes around to not let Dolidze corner him. Holland’s kicks peck at the Georgian, and he chains two punches up top before landing with a leg kick. Dolidze scores a left hand, and he gets tripped up when Holland grabs hold of his kicking leg to stumble him. Dolidze resets and plods forward, and Holland uses his reach advantage to get off three punches before Dolidze hits him back. Dolidze fires back with a vengeance, and his strikes largely go wide. Holland chips at the front leg as he stays moving, and he tosses out another from the other leg. Dolidze charges like a bull, tackling Holland to the mat and putting him on his back relatively easily. Holland wraps his legs around the waist, hand-fighting to not let Dolidze hit him cleanly. Dolidze softens Holland up with ground-and-pound, landing short shots until Holland opens his guard and heel strikes the Georgian in the kidney repeatedly. The crowd turns on the ground fighting, and the fighters do little different to change their strategies. Holland goes back and forth between a body lock off his back and striking with his heel, and Dolidze is happy to slug away. Holland rolls for an armbar, and he rolls over and something awkward happens as Holland appears to be injured or compromised. Holland keeps moving, and he turns to his back as Dolidze climbs into full mount. Herzog asks for more activity, and Holland starts talking trash to Dolidze while Dolidze is busting him in the face with elbows and powerful punches. The horn sounds, and Holland stands up and points to his rib. Holland goes back to his corner, and he tells his team that he is struggling and does not want to quit. Holland’s corner asks him repeatedly if he can keep going. Holland’s coach, Kru Bob Perez, decides that Holland needs to be saved from himself to fight another day and calls the fight off. Meanwhile, the victorious Dolidze is awarded his jiu-jitsu black belt for the technical knockout victory.

The Official Result
Roman Dolidze def. Kevin Holland R1 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze to win inside the distance, betting on his superior grappling. He notes Dolidze is a world champion grappler and should easily take down Kevin Holland, who has poor takedown defense. However, he expresses concern that Dolidze might not use his grappling and could get out-struck. He recommends betting 'Win inside the distance - decision no action' to mitigate risk, as Dolidze often wins by decision or finish.

Bet on Roman Dolidze inside the distance, decision no action
"Roman L is going to be the pick... I'm betting inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Big Brady picks Roman Dolidze by submission in the second round, citing Holland's well-known weakness against wrestlers who can take him down and hold him down. He notes Dolidze is a big, strong middleweight with excellent grappling, and Holland has been submitted before. He also mentions a possible decision win if Dolidze controls with clinching and top pressure.

submission, second round
"I'm liking delit here I think um I'm going to go with delid by submission here in the second round but I I could also see a scenario where you know the Striking is competitive if not favors Holland delit …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody picks Holland, emphasizing his speed, reach, and volume striking. He doubts Dolidze's wrestling and BJJ effectiveness, noting Holland's takedown defense and submission skills. He believes Holland can outpoint Dolidze on the feet.

"I'm actually going to go with Kevin Holland"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Connor also picks Dolidze, agreeing that Dolidze's size and strength will be decisive. He notes that Dolidze is a nasty opportunistic grappler and that Holland's tendency to get tied up will play into Dolidze's hands. Connor thinks this is a terrible matchup for Holland and expects a dull, grinding win for Dolidze.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm gonna pick roman dulce. Yeah in a really really ugly fight really frustrating."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Roman Dolidze, having bet on him at plus money. He believes Dolidze's physicality and grappling will be too much for Kevin Holland, who gives up easy takedowns. Vreeland points to common opponents like Marvin Vettori and Kyle Daukaus, where Dolidze performed better than Holland. He expects Dolidze to pin Holland against the fence, take him down, and eventually submit him.

"I think Roman Del wants the grown man this guy Pin him up against the fence makes him those takedowns I think he can do that"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland. He notes that Dolidze is a good grappler with sharp transitions, and that Holland's weakness is being outgrappled by strong grapplers. He also criticizes Holland for fighting at middleweight, where he is undersized and gets bullied, whereas Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight and can handle the size. Vreeland believes Dolidze will get the ground game going and potentially submit Holland, though he acknowledges Holland hasn't been submitted in a while.

Dolidze by submission +1400
"I will take Roman Dolidze, I think he gets the ground game going and I know Holland hasn't been submitted in a while and I know Dolidze hasn't had a submission in a while but what do you think that …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Jeff Fox picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant. He notes that Holland won his last fight but didn't look good, and that he fought up a weight class. Fox is afraid Holland will get underneath his opponent on the ground and just do what he does, lying on his back. He hopes Holland doesn't do that because he's a good enough grappler not to have to, and he's the better striker. Fox acknowledges it's hard to pick Kevin Holland.

"I think Holland I'm afraid he's gonna like get underneath him on the ground and just do what he does lying on his back hopefully he does not do that because he's good enough grappling not to have to do …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host is surprised the line is as close as it is. He believes Dolidze's reckless fighting style will lead him to be picked apart by Kevin Holland, who is quicker and more accurate with shots down the pipe. He expects good footwork, range management, and solid grappling defense from Holland to keep the fight standing and win on the scorecards.

surprised that the line is as close as it is
"I'm kind of surprised that the line is as close as it is I think the Reckless fighting style of Del will lead him into getting picked apart by Kevin Holland"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Paul picks Dolidze, citing his physicality and ability to make the fight ugly. He worries about Holland's chin and thinks Dolidze can close the distance and use his strength. He notes Dolidze's recent volume striking against Anthony Smith.

"I bet a little bit of deletes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland, citing Dolidze's chin, leg kicks, and top control. He notes Dolidze trains at altitude and is active, while Holland's late-round finishing ability is questionable at altitude. He believes Dolidze will low kick Holland and eventually get takedowns, using his size advantage. He also mentions Holland's submission threat off his back but thinks Dolidze will be cautious.

"I'm going to go Roman delzy I like Holland at welterweight I like Holland at welterweight they're a bit better down there"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Zane picks Dolidze, expecting a frustrating fight where Dolidze uses his size and strength to push Holland against the fence and tie him up. He notes that Holland tends to allow himself to be cornered and hugged by larger opponents, and Dolidze's grappling will be too much for Holland. Zane is not excited for this fight but sees Dolidze as the clear winner.

Holland opened at -142, now -137. Dolidze opened at +127, now +123. Zane is surprised Holland is favored.
"Gotta pick dulcie. He's big and strong and kevin will let him tie up and this will be that uh, you know."
WIN vs Anthony Smith
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 51 of 93 54% 51 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 100 of 185 54% 103 of 188 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 18 of 32 56% 18 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Dolidze 0 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 48 of 73 65% 51 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:33
3 Roman Dolidze 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 30 of 60 50% 30 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 51 of 93 54% 27 of 67 4 of 4 20 of 22 51 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 100 of 185 54% 61 of 135 12 of 16 27 of 34 65 of 132 3 of 4 32 of 49
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 18 of 32 56% 6 of 19 3 of 3 9 of 10 18 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 22 of 52 42% 4 of 27 4 of 6 14 of 19 21 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roman Dolidze 11 of 16 68% 4 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 8 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 48 of 73 65% 40 of 63 4 of 4 4 of 6 14 of 22 2 of 2 32 of 49
3 Roman Dolidze 22 of 45 48% 17 of 40 1 of 1 4 of 4 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 30 of 60 50% 17 of 45 4 of 6 9 of 9 30 of 59 0 of 1 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Cody picks Dolidze despite concerns about his inconsistency. He notes that Dolidze looked good against Marvin Vettori but terrible against Nassourdine Imavov, possibly due to the lack of crowd energy in the Apex. Cody believes Dolidze will benefit from the live crowd at UFC 303 and that his durability and pressure will be key. He also points out that Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight before and that Smith tends to fade in later rounds if he doesn't get an early finish.

"I'm gonna go with Roman Dolidze... I think he can win the 20 pounds."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Daniel has no strong read on this fight, noting both fighters are opportunistic finishers with similar qualities. He sees Dolidze potentially getting takedowns and grinding, but ultimately goes with the underdog Smith because he doesn't know enough and prefers the dog. He acknowledges it could realistically go either way.

"I really don't have a good read on this fight... for that reason I'll just go with Anthony Smith as the dog but I could see it realistically going either way."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze, stating that Anthony Smith has no chin left and Dolidze has knockout power, as evidenced by his KO of Jack Hermansson. He believes Dolidze will stuff any takedown attempts from Smith and knock him out on the feet. Vreeland also praises Dolidze's underrated jiu-jitsu and sweeps, noting he won't fall into a dumb submission. He acknowledges the concern of Dolidze moving up in weight on short notice but still favors him.

KO prop at +275 mentioned
"I think Roman dedy first of all is gonna stuff any takedown that Anthony Smith throws his way and then second of all as you said he knocked out Jack her Manon... I think he's probably just gonna knock Anthony …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Jeff Fox picks Roman Dolidze, noting that Anthony Smith has no chin left and Dolidze has been knocking people out, including three straight before his last two losses. He mentions that Smith has screwed them over numerous times but still cannot pick him. Fox also points out that Dolidze is taking the fight on short notice but still expects him to win.

"It's me obviously I'm not picking Anthony Smith... he has no Chin left... I can very easily see him knocking Anthony Smith out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The host thinks Dolidze's aggressiveness could cause Smith issues, and that Smith does not have the technical striking to pick Dolidze apart like Imavov did. He predicts Dolidze will break Smith and get a finish in the second or third round. However, he is not confident due to Dolidze's lack of technical prowess and the short notice weight class change, so he says this fight is likely a pass.

Dolidze wins in round 2 or 3
"I do think that we see Del end up getting a finish here by breaking Smith and winning this fight probably in the second or third round but I'd say pass all around."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Paul leans toward Smith, noting that he has value as a plus-money underdog. He acknowledges Smith's tendency to fade in later rounds but believes Smith's striking is superior and that he can catch Dolidze early. Paul also mentions that Smith has a history of upsetting prospects and that Dolidze's last performance was concerning. However, he admits it's a close fight and that Smith's path to victory likely involves an early finish.

"I do see merit in him at plus money... Anthony Smith will be the pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

The Guru picks Anthony Smith over Roman Dolidze. He criticizes Dolidze as 'dog [__]' and believes Smith is a level above. He notes Smith's recent win over Vitor Petrino and his ability to survive on the ground, as seen against Jon Jones. He also mentions Smith will have a size advantage since Dolidze was preparing for middleweight. He expects Smith to win, possibly by finish.

"I'm going to go with Anthony Smith... I think Roman delzy is actual dog [__]"
Decision (majority) (49–44, 47–47, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 34 of 152 22% 59 of 190 0 of 4 0% 0 1 10:11
Roman Dolidze 1 112 of 189 59% 154 of 248 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:28
Roman Dolidze 1 51 of 75 68% 69 of 109 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:10
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 5 of 30 16% 17 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:43
Roman Dolidze 0 9 of 22 40% 14 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 29 27% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:17
Roman Dolidze 0 20 of 33 60% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
4 Nassourdine Imavov 0 6 of 31 19% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:33
Roman Dolidze 0 14 of 26 53% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
5 Nassourdine Imavov 0 7 of 29 24% 8 of 30 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:10
Roman Dolidze 0 18 of 33 54% 23 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 34 of 152 22% 14 of 113 8 of 13 12 of 26 32 of 145 2 of 7 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 112 of 189 59% 71 of 132 24 of 38 17 of 19 67 of 129 13 of 16 32 of 44
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 33 24% 1 of 20 3 of 3 4 of 10 7 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 51 of 75 68% 35 of 54 9 of 13 7 of 8 18 of 31 5 of 6 28 of 38
2 Nassourdine Imavov 5 of 30 16% 4 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 4 4 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 9 of 22 40% 4 of 16 3 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 29 27% 4 of 22 1 of 2 3 of 5 8 of 25 0 of 4 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 20 of 33 60% 9 of 18 7 of 10 4 of 5 16 of 29 4 of 4 0 of 0
4 Nassourdine Imavov 6 of 31 19% 3 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 14 of 26 53% 10 of 19 1 of 4 3 of 3 12 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2
5 Nassourdine Imavov 7 of 29 24% 2 of 18 2 of 5 3 of 6 7 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 18 of 33 54% 13 of 25 4 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 24 3 of 5 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov but also bets on Roman Dolidze inside the distance. He explains that Dolidze has the power and submissions to finish but cannot be trusted to grapple, as seen in his last fight. He expects Imavov to win by decision, using movement and striking. He places a bet on Dolidze inside the distance with decision no action.

Bet on Roman Dolidze inside the distance (decision no action)
"nardin's going to be the pick... I'm going to do inside the distance decision no action on Roman deled"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady picks Nassourdine Imavov to win a close decision. He notes that Imavov is a minute winner with high volume, while Dolidze is a moment winner with low volume but big shots. The five-round fight favors Imavov, as Dolidze has never gone five rounds and slows down. Brady expects Imavov to outland Dolidze and win a decision, though Dolidze could pull off a surprise finish.

decision, five rounds
"I'm GNA take the imav to win a pretty close decision here I think this does go the full five rounds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Cody acknowledges both fighters are hard to read but leans to Dolidze as a plus money underdog. He notes Dolidze's Georgian toughness, improved cardio, and power, but worries about his low striking volume and reluctance to wrestle. He thinks if Dolidze stands and trades, Imavov's volume could outpoint him, but the dog price is worth a shot.

"plus 170 Roman deletes I'll take that Underdog shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Imavov has cleaner technique and more paths to victory, but Dolidze's forward pressure in a five-round fight could be the difference maker. Imavov needs to stay within himself, pick his shots from distance, and possibly cut Dolidze to sway judges. The host is hesitant due to the line and the five-round duration, but officially picks Imavov by decision.

Dolidze as a potential dog is mentioned, but no specific prop bet.
"I always like going with a fighter that has the cleaner technique more paths to victory... but at minus 160 it's a tough line... at five rounds Del's forward pressure could be the Difference Maker."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Paul is torn on the main event, calling it a pass from a betting perspective. He sees Imavov's cardio issues and Dolidze's size and strength advantages, but notes Dolidze's low output and questionable fight IQ. He slightly leans to Dolidze at plus money but says he likely won't bet it.

"I'll ever so slightly just go with that plus money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov over Roman Dolidze, predicting a third or fourth round TKO. He notes Dolidze is a slugger who struggles against fighters with good footwork on the back foot, which is Imavov's strength. He cites Imavov's performance against Sean Strickland and his wrestling ability to take down Chris Curtis. He believes Imavov will work Dolidze over with front kicks and low kicks, eventually catching him with a one-two down the pipe.

third or fourth round TKO
"I'm gonna go with nasaden mov over Roman delzy... I'll say third or fourth round TKO for nasaden mavo."
LOSS vs Marvin Vettori
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marvin Vettori 0 106 of 218 48% 106 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 71 of 192 36% 71 of 192 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marvin Vettori 0 38 of 75 50% 38 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 29 of 71 40% 29 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marvin Vettori 0 28 of 69 40% 28 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 16 of 50 32% 16 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
3 Marvin Vettori 0 40 of 74 54% 40 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 26 of 71 36% 26 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marvin Vettori 106 of 218 48% 60 of 165 8 of 13 38 of 40 100 of 212 6 of 6 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 71 of 192 36% 52 of 169 11 of 15 8 of 8 67 of 180 4 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marvin Vettori 38 of 75 50% 24 of 60 2 of 3 12 of 12 35 of 72 3 of 3 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 29 of 71 40% 20 of 62 3 of 3 6 of 6 29 of 69 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Marvin Vettori 28 of 69 40% 11 of 48 3 of 6 14 of 15 28 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 16 of 50 32% 12 of 44 3 of 5 1 of 1 16 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marvin Vettori 40 of 74 54% 25 of 57 3 of 4 12 of 13 37 of 71 3 of 3 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 26 of 71 36% 20 of 63 5 of 7 1 of 1 22 of 61 4 of 10 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vettori (-166), Dolidze (+140)

Round 1
In 2023, Vettori (19-7-1, 9-5-1 UFC) and Dolidze (14-3, 8-3 UFC) tangled in a main card match on UFC 286. The former ended up getting his hand raised on the scorecards, and for some reason, the promotion is running back this middleweight entanglement. Rather than a three-rounder, these two get five rounds to stretch out and ply their respective trades. Before Vettori gets to the cage, he remembers that he did not put on a groin cup. Vettori has to go back to the locker room to get it, resulting in an extremely awkward wait. Absent-minded or mind games, you be the judge. When they both take the cage, referee Herb Dean calls the fighters to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and elicit a fist bump, and the competitors oblige. It’s on with the show. Vettori on the outside measures his jab, and Dolidze returns fire with an axe kick that is well out of range. Dolidze reaches out with his right hand, and Vettori protects himself from it and gets off a low kick. Vettori goes to the front leg a few more times, and he checks one coming back his way. Dolidze rings his bell with a punch combo, as Vettori nods at his opponent after absorbing the blows. Vettori kicks twice low and then high with his foot, and Dolidze drives him back with a right hand. The two lean in and bang their heads together, and Dean sees it immediately and calls time. They take the necessary seconds to shake anything off and return to their distant striking engagement. Dolidze loads up on a big right that bangs into the raised guard, and he has a second come up just short. Vettori jabs and moves, but he does eat a right hand on the temple. Dolidze hammers home a low kick, and the two appear to clash heads again but there is no pause this time. Vettori uses low kicks to keep distance, while Dolidze is all firepower throwing big punches that cause him to slide off-balance. Vettori slips in and out with a sharp left hand, and Dolidze nods at him and swings back violently. Another axe kick from the Georgian goes wide, and Vettori splits the guard with a jab and a one-two. Dolidze responds with a short punch combination, and he sticks out a front kick for good measure. The Italian sneaks in a punch, but his leg kick gets checked as Dolidze smiles. Dolidze marches forward with a right hand, spinning through it with an elbow that brushes past his opponent. They trade kicks to the kneecap, and Dolidze races after him swinging for the fences. Vettori slides out of the way and clips Dolidze with a short right hook. Dolidze shrugs it off and loads up on his right hand, and Vettori is wise to it and a second that follows. Dolidze launches a head kick, and Vettori shoulder-rolls it to keep himself safe. Dolidze considers a level change, but Vettori no-sells it and gets back to boxing distance. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vettori

Round 2
Before the round begins, Dean goes over to Dolidze to inform him that he needs to stop pointing his fingers towards his opponent. Dolidze acknowledges him, and the round commences. When Dolidze darts forward, Vettori is out of the way safely. As Vettori slides in and out of range, Dolidze connects at the end of a right hand. Dolidze then pushes off and his thumb jams into Vettori’s eye, and Dean heavily sighs and calls time. There is no point deduction despite the stern warning seconds ago, with the rules more guidelines than anything. Vettori clears his eye quickly, and he wants to make Dolidze pay. They both crack one another with heavy right hands, and Dolidze’s face sports a wry grin. Dolidze tries again to spin for a strike, and this time Vettori closes the distance to shut him down. A third spinning back elbow from the Georgian ricochets off the guard, and they both reset. Both fighters crash together, and Dolidze gets the better of it with a clean right hand. Dolidze plants the ball of his foot on the torso, and he comes up short with his axe kick. Dolidze slaps the calf a few times with the instep of his foot, and Vettori swings with one heavier and wades out of danger as Dolidze fires off a front kick. A Vettori head kick is blocked, and he charges in but does not catch his man with anything. Dolidze kicks low, and Vettori throws high. Dean issues Dolidze another warning for his outstretched fingers, and they leap towards one another to engage and then back off after doing what they want to do. This fight is playing out almost exactly like their first bout a few years ago, with Vettori slipping in and out with more accurate strikes while Dolidze leans on power that occasionally connects. Dolidze gets off a leg kick, and Vettori strides forward and puts a one-two on the chest. A flurry from both men wraps up the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze

Round 3
Vettori leads off with his jab, and Dolidze reaches him with a big right hand and swings wide with a left. Vettori kicks his foe in the ribs, and Dolidze eventually pays him back with a similar strike. Vettori tries to sweep the leg, and he has his nose bloodied with a powerful strike. This angers him, and he unloads a fierce combination of fists that sends Dolidze squirrely. Dolidze stumbles, bumbles and fumbles his way towards the fence, and Vettori gives chase and starts pounding on him. The Georgian somehow manages to gather his thought and respond with a big right hand, winging it hard enough to make Vettori think twice about advancing without care. Vettori sticks his foe with a jab and follows with a left, and he shimmies out of the way when Dolidze tries to load up on him. One good right hand comes in from Dolidze, who follows with two head kicks that are blocked. The body kick that follows is much heavier and is not guarded against, prompting Vettori to press the action with a long left. Dolidze goes to the body with a pair of front kicks, and he takes a heavy kick to his calf. Dolidze pushes out a straight right hand down the pipe, and Vettori leans back to dodge the subsequent heavy left. Dolidze connects with a hefty leg kick that makes Vettori both smile and limp. Vettori ducks away from looping punches, seeing the fastballs aimed his way. The leg kicks are much more effective from the Georgian, who raps one off the lead leg and pursues a takedown. Vettori shrugs, not getting taken down, and the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vettori

Round 4
With the championship rounds reached, both fighters consider touching gloves but abandon it. Instead, it is Dolidze pressing the pace, loading up on power shots but largely missing the mark. Dolidze times a knee when Vettori ducks, and he beans the Italian with a destructive right hand that cuts him. Dolidze sees the blood leaking and grows in confidence, walking his adversary down and keeping his right hand cocked back ready for attack. Vettori peppers him from a distance as he shakes out the cobwebs, using his jab to keep Dolidze away. Dolidze swarms with three hooks, and the first lands while the other two hit air. Vettori slams his shin on the lead leg of his opponent, and Dolidze lobs bombs that whiz past the Italian’s face. When Dolidze uses a front kick to close in and swipe out a right hand, Vettori skips away and prods him with his jab. Vettori’s strikes are appearing more labored, and his movement is less quick, as Dolidze is able to trap him for a second to string several mighty punches together that splits open a cut on the bridge of Vettori’s nose. Vettori tries to strike back, and he walks straight into a spinning back elbow that lands on his neck. Both fighters smile after the strike lands, and Vettori comes at him with a one two and nods. Dolidze nods back. Dolidze tries an awkwardly angled leg kick, and Vettori laughs at him. The Georgian points to the ground to initiate a brawl, and then pitches out an axe kick that is leagues away from his intended target. Dolidze gets in a front kick, and Vettori clips him behind the ear. Both men score at the end of their punches in an exchange, and Dolidze snaps Vettori’s head back with a right. Dolidze unleashes another heavy right hand, and Vettori runs at him fists flying and connects with a thudding left at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze

Round 5
The combatants are so ready to get back to it, they start before the cage door is closed. Dean makes sure it gets shut first, and then lets the middleweights go after it. They proceed to brawl, with Dolidze landing flush and Vettori finally standing in the pocket and banging right back. Dolidze has a front kick slide off the cup, and Dean does not see it and tells them to keep going. Dolidze lets loose a hard right hand, knocking the Italian back and away from counters. Vettori drives a knee to the chin, and Dolidze bites down on his mouthpiece and slings wild hooks. Vettori keeps himself safe from most of them and bounces off the fence, only to be met with a front kick from either leg. The Georgian wraps a kick around the guard, and Vettori’s lunges are doing some serious damage to his foe’s face. Dolidze’s eye is swollen and bloodied, and he pays it no mind as he just wants to punch Vettori in the face. Lucky for him, Vettori wants to the same to Dolidze. They punch each other in the face. Again. And again. Dolidze mixes things up with a few front kicks, and one goes low and has Dean call time this time around. Vettori groans and takes about 20 seconds before being ready to go for broke. Dolidze kicks high three times, left, right and left, and he zips a fourth up that manages to get through the guard. Dolidze drills his man on the nose with a knee, and Vettori shakes his head at him. Dolidze’s kicks are the most effective weapons thus far, and as Dolidze kicks high and pushes off, Vettori claims he was poked in the eye again. It is not called, and Dolidze bears down on the Italian swinging with sheer power. Dolidze doubles up on head kicks, and even though it hits the guard, it still knocks him back a step. Another zooming head kick buzzes the tower, and they crash together with fists flying for one last engagement. Dolidze spins for a final elbow, and the match concludes. This rematch will likely lean towards the man who lost the first fight, setting up the UFC for a super-duper rubber match in the future. If they fight a third time, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze (48-47 Dolidze)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze (48-47 Dolidze)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dolidze (48-47 Dolidze)

The Official Result
Roman Dolidze def. Marvin Vettori via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Angelo picks Vettori because of his cement chin, incredible cardio, and submission defense. He thinks Dolidze will fade and cannot take Vettori down. He notes Dolidze's takedowns are trash and his only path is a submission, but Vettori's submission defense is good enough. He has a bet on Dolidze inside distance (decision no action) as a hedge.

bet on Dolidze inside distance (decision no action)
"I think Marvin wins I'm not betting actually I do have a bet and the BET's on Roman Romans leads inside the distance decision no action."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Big Brady picks Vettori, citing his higher output (4.20 vs 2.62 significant strikes per minute) and durability (never knocked out). He questions Dolidze's path to victory, as Vettori is tough to finish and Dolidze has low volume. He predicts a decision win, but notes the odds are surprising and he may look for a prop instead.

maybe a prop will stick out
"I'm gonna go vittori to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Cody picks Vettori, arguing Dolidze is a 'comeback kid' who relies on finishing but fades in longer fights. He notes Dolidze's low volume and poor cardio, while Vettori is durable, has solid wrestling, and good cardio. He thinks Vettori wins by decision, possibly with takedowns. He says minus 270 isn't bad and likes Vettori by decision prop.

Marvin Vettori by decision, Vettori over 1.5 takedowns (PrizePicks)
"I feel like Victoria's got him beat out everywhere... probably more of a decision kind of performance... minus 270 he doesn't sound great but some of these favorites you're gonna have to trust"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Marvin Vettori

Connor picks Vettori for his consistency and durability. He notes that Vettori is a roundly solid fighter who doesn't get submitted or knocked out, and he maintains a steady output of one-twos. Dolidze is more of a wild athlete who relies on flashy moments but lacks process. Connor points out that Jack Hermansson was dominating Dolidze before collapsing, and Vettori is a tougher matchup because he won't break. He thinks Vettori's pace and durability will overwhelm Dolidze, who cannot craft a game plan to break Vettori down.

Vettori opened -275, currently -297; Dolidze opened +235, currently +247
"Vittori is simply too meatheaded to lose to him."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Jacob picks Dolidze, believing Vettori is an emotional idiot who will eventually shoot a takedown and get submitted. He thinks Vettori has no power and Dolidze can land a big shot. He notes Dolidze is undefeated except for a fight where Jacob picked against him. He is riding the Dolidze train until it falls off.

"I think the fight goes to the ground eventually Roman finds his sweep and finds a submission on this knucklehead fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Vettori is a strong grappler with good clinch work and durability, though his striking is still developing. Dolidze is on a four-fight winning streak with knockout power, but his striking is technically lacking and he can be reckless. Vettori should weather early storms and use his wrestling to control the fight, likely winning a decision. The minus 300 line is a bit steep but the skill gap is clear.

"I really believe the avatory should have little to no issue in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Vettori. He notes Dolidze's volume is so low that an elite fighter should be able to do what Jack Hermansson did and extend it over 15 minutes. He likes Vettori by decision at minus 120 and says Dolidze has never been finished but Vettori can outpoint him.

Marvin Vettori by decision
"vittori by decision definitely has my interest this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

The MMA Guru picks Marvin Vettori over Roman Dolidze, despite Vettori's sometimes questionable game plans. He notes Dolidze is dangerous on the ground but has poor striking and was easily picked apart by Jack Hermansson on the feet. Vettori outstruck Hermansson and stuffed his takedowns, so he should do the same to Dolidze. He predicts a 30-27 decision for Vettori, warning that if Vettori shoots takedowns he deserves to lose.

Vettori wins by decision 30-27
"I'm gonna go with Marvin vittori over Roman the Lindsay here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Marvin Vettori

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing Vettori's block-headed consistency. He notes that Vettori doesn't collapse when outsmarted; he just keeps coming. Dolidze is a flashy fighter but lacks the technical foundation to break Vettori down. Zane also mentions that Vettori's takedown defense and ability to stop takedowns are solid. He thinks Dolidze's best chance is a lucky shot, but Vettori's durability and pace will carry him to a decision win.

Vettori opened -275, currently -297; Dolidze opened +235, currently +247
"If Marvin Vittori collapsed every time he was outsmarted, you'd never make it out of bed."
TKO (punches) R2 4:06 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 47 of 79 59% 48 of 80 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:52
Jack Hermansson 0 25 of 54 46% 39 of 73 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 25 of 40 62% 26 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Jack Hermansson 0 4 of 16 25% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
2 Roman Dolidze 0 22 of 39 56% 22 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:46
Jack Hermansson 0 21 of 38 55% 32 of 54 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 47 of 79 59% 16 of 41 11 of 16 20 of 22 43 of 74 3 of 4 1 of 1
Jack Hermansson 25 of 54 46% 23 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 38 1 of 1 12 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 25 of 40 62% 6 of 16 6 of 9 13 of 15 23 of 37 1 of 2 1 of 1
Jack Hermansson 4 of 16 25% 3 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Roman Dolidze 22 of 39 56% 10 of 25 5 of 7 7 of 7 20 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 21 of 38 55% 20 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 23 1 of 1 11 of 14
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze, calling him a world champion grappler with real power. He notes Dolidze's impressive recent win over Phil Hawes, where he showed both submission and KO ability. He thinks Hermansson is a good grappler but not on Dolidze's level, and lacks power in his striking. He expects Dolidze to be the favorite by fight night and has a moneyline bet on him.

Has a moneyline bet on Dolidze; notes short notice but Dolidze has stepped up before
"I like Roman Deliza here I got him at plus money I have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Big Brady is confident in Hermansson, citing his underrated striking, improved cardio, and superior grappling. He notes Dolidze's poor takedown defense (33%) and short-notice fight, expecting Hermansson to win exchanges on the feet, mix in takedowns, and finish a tired Dolidze in the second round by submission. He mentions Hermansson's dominant win over Chris Curtis as evidence.

Hermansson wins by submission, round 2
"I think Jacker Manson is going to be the second one to ever finish Roma to Lindsay here... second round submission for Jack Romancing"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Cody agrees, highlighting Hermansson's high output and Dolidze's low volume. He thinks Hermansson can win by decision or even submission, and prefers Hermansson by decision. He notes Dolidze's power but doubts he can land cleanly.

Hermansson by decision; Hermansson over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I think he pushes a pretty decent pace and as he's getting a little bit older he realizes maybe not the greatest chin maybe not the most uh not the most power so why hang it in the pocket and …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Daniel Levi leans Hermansson as a pure pick, citing his better competition, improved striking, and ground-and-pound. However, he notes Dolidze's danger everywhere and calls it a dog-or-pass situation at the current line. He might bet Dolidze if the line widens to +200 or more.

"I lean Jack but minus 190 is not a lean Jack minus 150 is Eileen Jack and actually minus 150 is where Vegas opened and I thought that was pretty appropriate so at this line I actually do think it's …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

The host picks Hermansson but is not confident due to Dolidze's tendency to pull off upsets. He thinks Hermansson will dictate the fight with clinching and striking from the outside, similar to his win over Chris Curtis. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet, expecting a slow-paced fight. He warns that Dolidze is a wild man who could finish if he smells blood.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'll still go with her Manson as my prediction I'm gonna take the over two and a half likely as a bet"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Paul thinks Hermansson has Dolidze covered everywhere. He notes Dolidze's low volume and Hermansson's output advantage. He expects Hermansson to keep the fight standing and use his reach and cardio to win a decision or possibly get a finish.

Hermansson over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I think minus 200 is a pretty fair price on Jack romance in this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

The MMA Guru picks Jack Hermansson, citing his superior experience and grappling. He thinks Dolidze's recent wins are over lesser competition and that Hermansson's leg kicks and pressure will be key. He predicts Hermansson will take over in the later rounds and win a decision.

Hermansson by decision (29-28)
"I'm going Jack commandsum"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov but also bets on Roman Dolidze inside the distance. He explains that Dolidze has the power and submissions to finish but cannot be trusted to grapple, as seen in his last fight. He expects Imavov to win by decision, using movement and striking. He places a bet on Dolidze inside the distance with decision no action.

Bet on Roman Dolidze inside the distance (decision no action)
"nardin's going to be the pick... I'm going to do inside the distance decision no action on Roman deled"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady picks Nassourdine Imavov to win a close decision. He notes that Imavov is a minute winner with high volume, while Dolidze is a moment winner with low volume but big shots. The five-round fight favors Imavov, as Dolidze has never gone five rounds and slows down. Brady expects Imavov to outland Dolidze and win a decision, though Dolidze could pull off a surprise finish.

decision, five rounds
"I'm GNA take the imav to win a pretty close decision here I think this does go the full five rounds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Cody acknowledges both fighters are hard to read but leans to Dolidze as a plus money underdog. He notes Dolidze's Georgian toughness, improved cardio, and power, but worries about his low striking volume and reluctance to wrestle. He thinks if Dolidze stands and trades, Imavov's volume could outpoint him, but the dog price is worth a shot.

"plus 170 Roman deletes I'll take that Underdog shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Imavov has cleaner technique and more paths to victory, but Dolidze's forward pressure in a five-round fight could be the difference maker. Imavov needs to stay within himself, pick his shots from distance, and possibly cut Dolidze to sway judges. The host is hesitant due to the line and the five-round duration, but officially picks Imavov by decision.

Dolidze as a potential dog is mentioned, but no specific prop bet.
"I always like going with a fighter that has the cleaner technique more paths to victory... but at minus 160 it's a tough line... at five rounds Del's forward pressure could be the Difference Maker."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Paul is torn on the main event, calling it a pass from a betting perspective. He sees Imavov's cardio issues and Dolidze's size and strength advantages, but notes Dolidze's low output and questionable fight IQ. He slightly leans to Dolidze at plus money but says he likely won't bet it.

"I'll ever so slightly just go with that plus money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov over Roman Dolidze, predicting a third or fourth round TKO. He notes Dolidze is a slugger who struggles against fighters with good footwork on the back foot, which is Imavov's strength. He cites Imavov's performance against Sean Strickland and his wrestling ability to take down Chris Curtis. He believes Imavov will work Dolidze over with front kicks and low kicks, eventually catching him with a one-two down the pipe.

third or fourth round TKO
"I'm gonna go with nasaden mov over Roman delzy... I'll say third or fourth round TKO for nasaden mavo."