Career Averages - Luana Carolina
Career Averages - Julija Stoliarenko
Luana Carolina - Fight History
Angelo picks Luana Carolina because she is the better striker with solid takedown defense (68%). He notes Melissa Mullins is too hittable with no head movement and her offensive wrestling is not great. He believes Luana should win everywhere and is surprised she is the underdog, expecting the line to flip.
Big Brady picks Melissa Mullins despite her terrible fight IQ, noting that she has a massive advantage on the ground with nasty ground and pound. He points out that Luana Carolina has been taken down in her last eight fights and that Mullins should be able to take her down and control her. However, he is hesitant because Mullins often refuses to wrestle and instead tests her striking, as seen in her last fight. He predicts a decision win for Mullins.
Cody agrees, noting Mullins' weight misses and lack of heart. He expects Carolina to win.
Connor picks Melissa Mullins, agreeing that you take the grappler in this matchup. He notes that Mullins is relentlessly aggressive with takedowns and ground control, while Carolina is a volume striker who can be beaten by grappling. Connor also advises against betting on this fight.
Daniel leans Carolina due to her experience and ability to weasel decisions. He notes Mullins has head-scratching moments and can be finished. However, he acknowledges it's women's MMA and the British fighter might have crowd support.
Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Carolina to win by decision. He cites her experience and striking prowess, but acknowledges she can be taken down. He expects Carolina to get back to her feet and outpoint Mullins over three rounds.
James picks Luana Carolina but is not confident. He thinks Carolina is the better striker and has more UFC experience, but her takedown defense is a concern. He notes that Mullins has poor fight IQ and may not shoot takedowns consistently. He predicts a decision win for Carolina.
The host is hesitant but leans towards Luana Carolina. He notes that Mullins has a grappling advantage but questions whether she will actually wrestle after failing to do so in her last fight. He believes Carolina's striking edge and improved defensive grappling could lead to a decision win. However, he admits he has underrated Carolina in the past and sees this as a potential breakout performance.
Paul picks Carolina, citing Mullins' poor durability and tendency to quit. He expects Carolina to outwork and finish Mullins.
The MMA Guru picks Melissa Mullins over Luana Carolina, though he admits neither fighter has been impressive. He notes Mullins is younger and may show more improvement fight to fight, while Carolina hasn't done much lately and has lost to lower-level opponents. He seems uncertain but goes with Mullins.
Zane picks Melissa Mullins, reasoning that in a matchup between a relentless grappler (Mullins) and a volume striker (Carolina), you take the grappler who can control the fight. He notes that Mullins is aggressive with takedowns and ground control, but if she can't get takedowns, she's cooked. Zane advises not betting on this fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Montague | 0 | 41 of 88 | 46% | 99 of 164 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 10:43 |
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 48 of 82 | 58% | 75 of 115 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michelle Montague | 0 | 10 of 32 | 31% | 25 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 24 of 36 | 66% | 39 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michelle Montague | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 38 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 |
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michelle Montague | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 36 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:17 |
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Montague | 41 of 88 | 46% | 34 of 77 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 51 |
| Luana Carolina | 48 of 82 | 58% | 31 of 60 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 16 | 46 of 77 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michelle Montague | 10 of 32 | 31% | 8 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 |
| Luana Carolina | 24 of 36 | 66% | 11 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 12 | 23 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michelle Montague | 17 of 32 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 |
| Luana Carolina | 15 of 25 | 60% | 12 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Michelle Montague | 14 of 24 | 58% | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 24 |
| Luana Carolina | 9 of 21 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michelle Montague (Darrell Montague) over Luana Carolina, citing Montague's wrestling and jiu-jitsu background at an international level, her willingness to strike, and her size. He acknowledges Luana Carolina's takedown defense and clinch work but believes Montague's aggression and grappling will be too much. He dismisses the knockout loss to Molly McCann as a fluke.
Big Brady picks Darrell Montague to win by second-round submission. He highlights Montague's submission expertise, noting all six wins are by rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Montague is one-dimensional and has poor striking, but believes she will get a takedown due to her physicality and Carolina's questionable takedown defense. He notes Carolina has been taken down frequently in recent fights.
Cody picks Montague, citing her grappling pedigree and size advantage moving down to 135. He notes Carolina has been taken down in her last eight fights and is moving up in weight, while Montague is a strong grappler with a rear-naked choke streak. He warns about Montague's cardio but thinks she can win the first two rounds.
Connor agrees, noting that Montague's recent fights show her shooting immediately for back takes, which will be a problem for Carolina. He also mentions that Carolina's chin is high and she relies on reach, but Montague has the same reach and is bigger. He thinks Montague's grappling will be decisive.
James is confident in Michelle Montague (Darrell Montague) due to her massive size advantage and elite back-taking ability. He notes she has submitted every opponent via rear-naked choke and that Luana Carolina is moving up from flyweight, making her vulnerable to grappling. He predicts a submission win.
The host expresses concern about Montague's weight cut to 135 lbs for the first time, but if successful, expects her to ragdoll Luana Carolina and secure another submission victory. The pick is conditional on making weight.
The Guru picks Michelle Montigue (Darrell Montague) confidently, impressed by her consistent first-round submission finishes and amateur experience. He sees Luana Carolina as a potential fraud check but believes Montigue's training at American Top Team and dominant style will lead to another first-round rear-naked choke victory.
Zane sees Montague as a bigger, stronger fighter who will shoot for takedowns and back takes, which should wreck Carolina. He notes that Carolina's success depends on being taller and longer, but Montague is two inches taller with the same reach and looks more muscular. He also points out that Montague has shown a consistent ability to stay on the back foot and outpoint opponents if needed.
Angelo picks Luana Carolina, citing her superior striking and solid takedown defense (74%). He believes she can keep the fight standing and outpoint Montana De La Rosa, who relies on wrestling. He notes that Carolina is used to opponents trying to take her down and sees her as a solid bet, possibly worth a stab.
Big Brady leans toward Luana Carolina, impressed by her takedown defense. He notes that Montana De La Rosa will try to wrestle, but if she can't get takedowns, Carolina is the better striker. He expects a close split decision.
The host expects De La Rosa's wrestling style to pay off and expose holes in Luana Carolina's game. He looks for De La Rosa to smother her with grappling, possibly opening a submission opportunity, but primarily controlling the fight and winning on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Luana Carolina over Montana De La Rosa. He notes that Montana has had takedowns but hasn't established dominant control, while Luana will win on the feet with more grit and determination. He also mentions a psychological edge: Luana will be jealous of Montana's looks and fight with rage. He predicts a split decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 94 of 167 | 56% | 114 of 199 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 0 | 43 of 114 | 37% | 62 of 145 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Carolina | 0 | 33 of 51 | 64% | 38 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 0 | 6 of 32 | 18% | 14 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 2 | Luana Carolina | 0 | 24 of 50 | 48% | 28 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 0 | 22 of 43 | 51% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 3 | Luana Carolina | 0 | 37 of 66 | 56% | 48 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 21 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Carolina | 94 of 167 | 56% | 45 of 101 | 23 of 35 | 26 of 31 | 73 of 142 | 21 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 43 of 114 | 37% | 25 of 86 | 16 of 23 | 2 of 5 | 27 of 93 | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Carolina | 33 of 51 | 64% | 14 of 29 | 6 of 9 | 13 of 13 | 25 of 41 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 6 of 32 | 18% | 5 of 25 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 3 | 5 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Luana Carolina | 24 of 50 | 48% | 13 of 36 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 41 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 22 of 43 | 51% | 12 of 33 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 28 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Luana Carolina | 37 of 66 | 56% | 18 of 36 | 10 of 17 | 9 of 13 | 32 of 60 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 15 of 39 | 38% | 8 of 28 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is surprised that Luana Carolina is a plus-money underdog, as he believes she is the better striker with solid takedown defense and clinch work. He notes that Lucie Pudilová has poor takedown defense and is not the better wrestler or striker. He has placed a half-unit bet on Luana at plus money, expecting the line to move.
Cody picks Carolina, highlighting her better competition, volume, and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Pudilová's poor takedown accuracy and that she struggles when taken down. He thinks Carolina will win with damage in the clinch and on the ground, and that judges will favor her output.
Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Carolina, citing Pudilová's poor record with judges and her increased hesitancy. He notes Carolina's Muay Thai background and recent submission win. Vreeland expects a kickboxing match that goes to decision, with Carolina getting the nod.
Pudilová is a slight underdog at +100. She has improved her grappling since her first UFC stint and can use her striking to set up takedowns, unlike Stoliarenko who pulls guard. Pudilová's aggressiveness and ability to mix in takedowns should keep Carolina uncomfortable at distance. I think Pudilová is the better overall fighter and can grind out a decision win.
Paul agrees, saying Carolina is the pick all day. He thinks wrestling will be negated and that Carolina's striking and clinch work will be key. He was impressed with her win over Stoliarenko.
The MMA Guru picks Luana Carolina, calling Lucie Pudilová 'garbage'. He notes Carolina stuffed takedowns from Lupita Godinez, who has good wrestling, and believes Carolina can out-grapple or out-strike Pudilová. He compares Pudilová's win over Yanan Wu unfavorably to Carolina's similar style, and cites Carolina's size and reach advantage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 66 of 136 | 48% | 138 of 230 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:27 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 16 of 59 | 27% | 21 of 68 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 3 | 0 | 3:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Carolina | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 35 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 6 of 25 | 24% | 6 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 | |
| 2 | Luana Carolina | 0 | 25 of 55 | 45% | 43 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 | |
| 3 | Luana Carolina | 0 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 60 of 89 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Carolina | 66 of 136 | 48% | 41 of 96 | 15 of 26 | 10 of 14 | 28 of 75 | 13 of 20 | 25 of 41 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 16 of 59 | 27% | 7 of 40 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 9 | 11 of 51 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Carolina | 12 of 32 | 37% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 6 of 25 | 24% | 2 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Luana Carolina | 25 of 55 | 45% | 13 of 38 | 6 of 9 | 6 of 8 | 14 of 36 | 4 of 6 | 7 of 13 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 10 of 28 | 35% | 5 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Luana Carolina | 29 of 49 | 59% | 22 of 38 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 | 5 of 10 | 17 of 27 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Julija Stoliarenko to win but strongly advises against betting on her. He compares her to Malcolm Gordon, a previous 'cash cow' that lost. He notes that Stoliarenko's path to victory is getting a takedown, but she is not a good fighter overall. He emphasizes that Luana Carolina is the better fighter overall but has been taken down frequently, which could be exploited.
Big Brady picks Julija Stoliarenko to win by first-round armbar. He notes that Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist with 10 wins by armbar, all in the first round. He believes her aggressiveness and improved wrestling will cause problems for Luana Carolina, who has questionable decision-making and has almost been submitted in recent fights. He expects the fight to hit the mat, where Stoliarenko is extremely dangerous.
Cody picks Stoliarenko by submission, calling it the play of the week. He notes Stoliarenko's elite armbar from guard and Carolina's poor takedown defense and physical strength. He expects Stoliarenko to get the fight to the mat and submit her quickly.
Stoliarenko's persistence and expertise in armbars should be too much for Carolina. Once Stoliarenko snatches an arm, it's only a matter of time before she gets the tap. Carolina's takedown defense is improving, but Stoliarenko's strength and Judo will likely get the fight to the ground.
Paul picks Stoliarenko by submission, agreeing with Cody. He highlights Carolina's vulnerability to takedowns and Stoliarenko's dangerous armbar. He thinks the plus-205 price is excellent value.
The MMA Guru picks Luana Carolina over Julija Stoliarenko, questioning whether Stoliarenko is actually good or just benefited from Molly McCann's poor ground game. He notes Carolina has better standup and overall ability, and that Stoliarenko has a rough weight cut at 125. He expects Carolina to win, likely as an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 22 of 62 | 35% | 77 of 122 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 4:11 |
| Ivana Petrović | 0 | 41 of 87 | 47% | 112 of 167 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 5:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Carolina | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:22 |
| Ivana Petrović | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 31 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:08 | |
| 2 | Luana Carolina | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 28 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Ivana Petrović | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 47 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 | |
| 3 | Luana Carolina | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 31 of 40 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Ivana Petrović | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 34 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Carolina | 22 of 62 | 35% | 15 of 51 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 50 | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 |
| Ivana Petrović | 41 of 87 | 47% | 18 of 60 | 11 of 15 | 12 of 12 | 27 of 66 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Carolina | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ivana Petrović | 10 of 22 | 45% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | |
| 2 | Luana Carolina | 13 of 32 | 40% | 9 of 25 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 22 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
| Ivana Petrović | 16 of 38 | 42% | 6 of 25 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Luana Carolina | 6 of 15 | 40% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ivana Petrović | 15 of 27 | 55% | 9 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Angelo picks Ivana Petrović, expecting her grappling to be the difference. He notes she should be able to take down Luana Carolina and either submit or grind out a decision. However, he finds the -200 odds too wide for a UFC debut with only six fights and advises against betting. He warns against the over 2.5 rounds as the fight could end either way.
Big Brady picks Luana Carolina by decision, but is very reluctant. He thinks Carolina is the better striker and has solid takedown defense, but notes she has been taken down and put in trouble before. Petrović has a good ground game and could finish if she gets on top. Brady calls it a terrible fight and advises not to bet on it.
Cody likes Carolina as a plus-money underdog. He notes Petrović is very green (less than 2 years pro) and has been dropped in fights. Carolina has fought better competition and has a striking advantage. Cody thinks Carolina can keep the fight standing and win a decision, especially if she defends takedowns. He compares it to other recent underdog wins.
Daniel picks Luana Carolina as an underdog, citing her experience and takedown defense (2 of 15 allowed against Godinez). He notes Petrović is hittable and unproven at UFC level, and that debuts often disappoint. He sees a close kickboxing match where Carolina's volume and durability could edge her ahead. He is willing to take a shot at plus odds.
Paul is considering Carolina as a dog. He notes Petrović's wrestling is her only path, but her stand-up is green and she was dropped by a short elbow. Carolina has good balance in the clinch and striking advantage. Paul thinks if Petrović can't get takedowns, Carolina wins. He is watching the market for a better price.
The Guru picks Ivana Petrović, citing her undefeated record (6-0) and good cardio shown in a fourth-round submission win. He notes Luana Carolina's losses to Molly McCann and Joanne Calderwood, and while Carolina beat Lupita Godinez, she was much larger. He trusts the undefeated prospect but acknowledges women's MMA is unpredictable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 131 of 228 | 57% | 177 of 278 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 100 of 199 | 50% | 123 of 222 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joanne Wood | 0 | 38 of 62 | 61% | 55 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 38 of 65 | 58% | 42 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 2 | Joanne Wood | 0 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 56 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 24 of 53 | 45% | 33 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 3 | Joanne Wood | 0 | 60 of 106 | 56% | 66 of 112 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 38 of 81 | 46% | 48 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joanne Wood | 131 of 228 | 57% | 61 of 142 | 46 of 53 | 24 of 33 | 84 of 177 | 46 of 50 | 1 of 1 |
| Luana Carolina | 100 of 199 | 50% | 55 of 144 | 34 of 40 | 11 of 15 | 75 of 165 | 25 of 34 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joanne Wood | 38 of 62 | 61% | 13 of 32 | 17 of 20 | 8 of 10 | 20 of 42 | 18 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Carolina | 38 of 65 | 58% | 15 of 38 | 16 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 25 of 50 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joanne Wood | 33 of 60 | 55% | 16 of 39 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 11 | 21 of 48 | 11 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Luana Carolina | 24 of 53 | 45% | 14 of 40 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 18 of 44 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joanne Wood | 60 of 106 | 56% | 32 of 71 | 21 of 23 | 7 of 12 | 43 of 87 | 17 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Carolina | 38 of 81 | 46% | 26 of 66 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 32 of 71 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo thinks Joanne Wood should win because she is better everywhere and has faced elite competition. He notes her losses are to champions and title contenders. He placed a half-unit bet on her at -150 three weeks ago and got good closing value. He is concerned about Wood's motivation and age but still expects her to win.
Big Brady picks Joanne Wood but with low confidence, noting she has looked like she doesn't want to be there recently. He acknowledges Wood's losses are to elite competition, and she should win this fight due to volume striking and Carolina's lack of takedowns. However, he is scared by Wood's recent performances and will not bet this fight.
Cody picks Wood reluctantly, noting her experience and technical Muay Thai. He thinks Carolina's takedown defense is poor and Wood can take her down if needed. He acknowledges Wood's durability and motivation are questions at 37, but believes Carolina is there to be beaten. He says he's likely screwed betting women's MMA but picks Wood.
Connor picks Wood but is very hesitant, acknowledging her recent mental and physical decline. He believes she should win against a fighter as limited as Carolina, but he doubts Wood's current mindset. He notes that Wood has never been knocked out and has the tools to win if she fights on the front foot.
Jacob sees this as a very close fight and is staying away. He thinks both fighters have similar styles and it will likely go to a split decision. He notes Luana Carolina could come on strong late and that Joanne Wood's motivation is questionable. He might bet on a split decision prop but is not picking a winner.
Wood is on a three-fight losing streak but those losses came against top competition (Santos, Grasso). She is a solid striker with good footwork, output, and elbows. Carolina is a decent striker but her wins are questionable and she was knocked out by Molly McCann. Wood should be the better technical striker and outwork Carolina over three rounds, possibly mixing in elbows. Carolina's takedowns are not expected to be a threat.
Paul picks Wood, but his favorite prop is over 63.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks. He thinks the fight goes 15 minutes and Wood lands well over that number. He says Wood by decision is likely but the moneyline is better than the decision prop. He notes Wood's recent losses were to elite competition and she should handle Carolina.
The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood over Luana Carolina, calling it a 'no-brainer' despite the unpredictability of women's MMA. He notes Wood has lost only to top competition like Grasso, Santos, and Murphy, while Carolina lost to Molly McCann who is not elite. He acknowledges Wood's jiu-jitsu vulnerabilities but believes her striking and experience will carry her to a decision win.
Zane picks Carolina as a gut pick, citing Wood's psychological fragility. He notes that Wood has looked increasingly flinchy and prone to giving up, while Carolina is scrappy and has shown resilience. Zane believes Carolina's pressure and clinch work could break Wood's will, even though Carolina is technically inferior.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly McCann | 1 | 85 of 159 | 53% | 99 of 174 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:30 |
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 64 of 132 | 48% | 76 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Molly McCann | 0 | 56 of 107 | 52% | 61 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 23 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Molly McCann | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 33 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Molly McCann | 1 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 15 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly McCann | 85 of 159 | 53% | 52 of 118 | 28 of 36 | 5 of 5 | 69 of 139 | 14 of 18 | 2 of 2 |
| Luana Carolina | 64 of 132 | 48% | 26 of 88 | 33 of 39 | 5 of 5 | 47 of 113 | 17 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Molly McCann | 56 of 107 | 52% | 35 of 79 | 19 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 47 of 96 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Carolina | 22 of 52 | 42% | 6 of 32 | 13 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 46 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Molly McCann | 15 of 30 | 50% | 5 of 19 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Luana Carolina | 26 of 51 | 50% | 13 of 37 | 12 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 40 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Molly McCann | 14 of 22 | 63% | 12 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Carolina | 16 of 29 | 55% | 7 of 19 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Molly McCann with a slight edge, citing her cleaner boxing and willingness to grapple to steal rounds. He notes that Luana Carolina has 88% takedown defense but was taken down in her last two fights and still won. He says it's a razor-thin fight and he's siding with the bookies who have Molly as a slight favorite.
Big Brady picks Luana Carolina to win a close split decision. He notes Carolina has good takedown defense (88%) and a height and reach advantage. He expects the fight to stay on the feet, where Carolina will land more strikes. Brady acknowledges Molly McCann has the home crowd and walks forward, but he sees Carolina improving and pulling off the upset.
Cody picks McCann but is hesitant, citing home-cage advantage and judging bias. He thinks McCann's volume and pressure will be key, but acknowledges Carolina's reach and size. He says the pick is McCann by decision, but he's not confident.
Daniel Levi picks Molly McCann, citing the hometown advantage at the O2 Arena. He believes McCann's volume boxing, opportunistic takedowns, and toughness will overwhelm Luana Carolina, who has a reach advantage but may struggle with McCann's pressure. Levi expects a close decision that will favor McCann due to the crowd and judges. He also notes that McCann's heart and willpower are key factors.
McCann's forward pressure and hard-nosed striking should overwhelm Carolina, who isn't that good. Carolina's win over Godinez was overrated due to Godinez taking the fight on short notice up a weight class. McCann is more fit for flyweight and should use her speed to close distance and land strikes. The hometown crowd will help sway judges. I'm picking McCann via decision, but a sprinkle on McCann by submission at +1100 is worth it given her activity off her back.
Paul picks Carolina on paper but is wary of British judging. He thinks Carolina's reach and striking could give McCann trouble, but the crowd and potential robbery scare him. He says he'll pick Carolina for the show but likely won't bet.
The Guru picks Luana Carolina as an upset, citing her size, reach advantage (7 inches), youth, and recent win over Lupita Godinez. He believes Molly McCann is overrated due to her association with Paddy Pimblett and the Scouse crew. He thinks Carolina can stuff takedowns and outgrapple McCann, and predicts a split decision win despite potential UK judging bias.
Julija Stoliarenko - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 59 of 114 | 51% | 59 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 61 of 161 | 37% | 64 of 167 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 19 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 | |
| 2 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 23 of 38 | 60% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 18 of 43 | 41% | 19 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 3 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 24 of 71 | 33% | 26 of 74 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriella Fernandes | 59 of 114 | 51% | 38 of 91 | 15 of 17 | 6 of 6 | 58 of 112 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 61 of 161 | 37% | 28 of 117 | 13 of 20 | 20 of 24 | 56 of 154 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriella Fernandes | 19 of 45 | 42% | 10 of 35 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 19 of 47 | 40% | 9 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 12 | 19 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gabriella Fernandes | 23 of 38 | 60% | 14 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 18 of 43 | 41% | 9 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gabriella Fernandes | 17 of 31 | 54% | 14 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 24 of 71 | 33% | 10 of 53 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 66 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gabriella Fernandes, citing her powerful striking and decent jiu-jitsu. He notes that Julija Stoliarenko is a dangerous grappler but has sloppy striking and is either armbar or nothing. Angelo believes if Gabriella can defend takedowns, she will beat Julija up and potentially finish her. He started with low confidence but moved to medium confidence.
Big Brady is confident in Gabriella Fernandes, describing Julija Stoliarenko as the most one-dimensional fighter in the UFC with only an armbar threat. He notes Stoliarenko has no striking, no wrestling, and has been finished multiple times. Brady believes Fernandes will dominate on the feet and can also do damage on top if the fight goes to the ground. He predicts Fernandes will knock out Stoliarenko in the second round.
Connor agrees, noting Fernandes showed toughness and resilience against Kong, remaining calm and looking for counters. He sees Stoliarenko as a limited fighter who struggles when her one plan fails.
The host highlights Fernandes' striking advantage and physicality, expecting her to keep the fight standing and pick apart Stoliarenko from distance. He predicts a headkick knockout, showing confidence in a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Gabriella Fernandes, citing her recent win over Wang Cong and her solid jiu-jitsu. He believes Stoliarenko is a finish-or-be-finished fighter but Fernandes has the grappling to avoid submissions. He predicts a first or second round finish for Fernandes.
Zane picks Fernandes because she is tough, hard to dominate, and has never been finished. He believes if she survives Stoliarenko's armbar attempts, she will win. He notes Stoliarenko is a one-trick pony who often gets crushed before securing the armbar.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Carolina | 0 | 66 of 136 | 48% | 138 of 230 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:27 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 16 of 59 | 27% | 21 of 68 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 3 | 0 | 3:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Carolina | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 35 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 6 of 25 | 24% | 6 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 | |
| 2 | Luana Carolina | 0 | 25 of 55 | 45% | 43 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 | |
| 3 | Luana Carolina | 0 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 60 of 89 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Carolina | 66 of 136 | 48% | 41 of 96 | 15 of 26 | 10 of 14 | 28 of 75 | 13 of 20 | 25 of 41 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 16 of 59 | 27% | 7 of 40 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 9 | 11 of 51 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Carolina | 12 of 32 | 37% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 6 of 25 | 24% | 2 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Luana Carolina | 25 of 55 | 45% | 13 of 38 | 6 of 9 | 6 of 8 | 14 of 36 | 4 of 6 | 7 of 13 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 10 of 28 | 35% | 5 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Luana Carolina | 29 of 49 | 59% | 22 of 38 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 | 5 of 10 | 17 of 27 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Julija Stoliarenko to win but strongly advises against betting on her. He compares her to Malcolm Gordon, a previous 'cash cow' that lost. He notes that Stoliarenko's path to victory is getting a takedown, but she is not a good fighter overall. He emphasizes that Luana Carolina is the better fighter overall but has been taken down frequently, which could be exploited.
Big Brady picks Julija Stoliarenko to win by first-round armbar. He notes that Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist with 10 wins by armbar, all in the first round. He believes her aggressiveness and improved wrestling will cause problems for Luana Carolina, who has questionable decision-making and has almost been submitted in recent fights. He expects the fight to hit the mat, where Stoliarenko is extremely dangerous.
Cody picks Stoliarenko by submission, calling it the play of the week. He notes Stoliarenko's elite armbar from guard and Carolina's poor takedown defense and physical strength. He expects Stoliarenko to get the fight to the mat and submit her quickly.
Stoliarenko's persistence and expertise in armbars should be too much for Carolina. Once Stoliarenko snatches an arm, it's only a matter of time before she gets the tap. Carolina's takedown defense is improving, but Stoliarenko's strength and Judo will likely get the fight to the ground.
Paul picks Stoliarenko by submission, agreeing with Cody. He highlights Carolina's vulnerability to takedowns and Stoliarenko's dangerous armbar. He thinks the plus-205 price is excellent value.
The MMA Guru picks Luana Carolina over Julija Stoliarenko, questioning whether Stoliarenko is actually good or just benefited from Molly McCann's poor ground game. He notes Carolina has better standup and overall ability, and that Stoliarenko has a rough weight cut at 125. He expects Carolina to win, likely as an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Molly McCann | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Molly McCann | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julija Stoliarenko | 6 of 16 | 37% | 1 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Molly McCann | 9 of 29 | 31% | 4 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julija Stoliarenko | 6 of 16 | 37% | 1 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Molly McCann | 9 of 29 | 31% | 4 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is extremely confident in Molly McCann, calling this a showcase fight. He believes she will win, possibly by stoppage, and suggests she could be parlayed. He notes the odds are -400 but thinks she could be even more favored.
Big Brady picks Molly McCann to win by first-round knockout, but predicts Stoliarenko will miss weight. He notes Stoliarenko is dangerous on the ground with armbars but has no striking or wrestling. He thinks McCann will keep it standing and knock her out. He calls it a setup fight for McCann in London. He is concerned if the fight goes to the mat.
Cody thinks McCann wins by out-volume and avoiding takedowns. He notes Stoliarenko's path is submission only, and the sub prop at +350 is too short for him. He would only bet Stoliarenko sub at +500 or better.
Daniel is very confident Molly McCann will win, calling Stoliarenko 'one of the worst fighters on the roster'. He believes Molly is better on the feet and can take Stoliarenko down as long as she avoids the armbar. He expects a highlight-reel finish and notes the line at -190 is good value to fade Stoliarenko. He dismisses comparisons to high-level grapplers like Erin Blanchfield, stating Stoliarenko is not on that level.
The host picks Molly McCann, citing her speed, striking advantage, and ability to keep the fight standing. He acknowledges the danger of Stoliarenko's armbar but believes McCann can avoid it. He predicts a knockout win and mentions waiting for a better price around -200.
Paul sees this as a setup for McCann, noting Stoliarenko is 1-5 in the UFC and her only win is over a retired fighter. He thinks McCann is popular in the UK and will be re-motivated after a loss to Blanchfield. He expects McCann to roll, though he jokes about a first-round armbar loss.
The MMA Guru picks Molly McCann, noting Dana White's investment in Barstool fighters. He praises McCann's toughness, chin, and scrappy style, and believes she can keep the fight on the feet. He criticizes Julija Stoliarenko's recent losses and lack of success unless she gets the fight to the ground. The Guru predicts McCann will win a 30-27 or 30-26 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 20 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 38 of 70 | 54% | 47 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea Chandler | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 20 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 38 of 70 | 54% | 47 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Chandler | 12 of 27 | 44% | 5 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 38 of 70 | 54% | 34 of 64 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea Chandler | 12 of 27 | 44% | 5 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 38 of 70 | 54% | 34 of 64 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 27 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In a pre-planned catchweight affair at 140 pounds, proud Lithuanian Stoliarenko (10-6-2, 1-4 UFC) wants to keep her modicum of momentum going after winning her first UFC appearance after five tries. She faces off against promotional newcomer Chandler (4-1, 0-0 UFC), plucked from the Invicta ranks but with the Diaz brothers in her camp. Referee Jacob Montalvo watches on as the two decide not to touch gloves, and instead they want to go after it early. Chandler lands a kick, and when she lines up a punch, Stoliarenko plods forward and takes her down. Within seconds, Stoliarenko shifts right into full mount, and she transitions into her favorite armbar setup. Chandler is wise to it, and she flips Stoliarenko over and breaks up the armlock before it is secured. The Stockton, Calif., native unloads with ground-and-pound when she is safe from submission harm, and she hammers Stoliarenko with several powerful blows. Stoliarenko kicks off the fence to get out of the bad situation, and finds her way back to the feet. Chandler catches her with a clean right hand as Stoliarenko resets, and Stoliarenko staggers back and looks to get her feet back beneath her. Stoliarenko is marked up from absorbing strikes, and slightly wobbled on the feet, and Chandler is loading up on heavy strikes. When Stoliarenko shoots in for a takedown, she drops to her knees and is bowled over. Chandler moves immediately into mount, and she makes Stoliarenko pay for the takedown try. Stoliarenko bucks and lifts her legs up high, and in doing so, she forces Chandler to climb back upright. Stoliarenko desperately shoots for a takedown, and Chandler hip tosses her to the mat and raises her arms up in typical Diaz-esque fashion. Stoliarenko stands up and backs off, and when she attempts another takedown, Chandler easily pushes her to her back and moves to mount.
Sensing that the Lithuanian is starting to wilt, Chandler turns it up to 11 and starts battering Stoliarenko with heavy punches. The shots are getting through and Montalvo is right there paying attention. Chandler keeps bombarding her doomed opponent with relentless fists, and Montalvo steps in to rescue Stoliarenko from further harm.
The Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu product has just announced herself to the promotion in a big way, putting away a woman that had not been stopped with strikes since 2014.
The Official Result
Chelsea Chandler def. Julija Stoliarenko R1 4:15 via TKO (Punches)
Cody leans towards Julija Stoliarenko, noting her dangerous armbar and improved striking. He is concerned about Chandler's size and the catchweight, but believes Stoliarenko's submission threat is real. He prefers the submission prop but may wait for weigh-ins to assess size discrepancy.
Paul picks Julija Stoliarenko by submission, noting her specialty is the armbar and she has shown improvement in her overall game. He acknowledges Chandler is bigger and has some jiu-jitsu, but believes Stoliarenko's experience and ability to capitalize on mistakes will be key. He suggests waiting for a better price on the submission prop.
The MMA Guru leans toward Julija Stoliarenko, noting her specific skill set of armbars and judo. He thinks she can take Chandler down and control her on the ground, possibly submitting her. He is less confident because Chandler is untested and has a thyroid issue affecting weight cut, but he believes Stoliarenko has faced better competition. He calls it a pick'em fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica-Rose Clark | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jessica-Rose Clark | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julija Stoliarenko | 9 of 16 | 56% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Jessica-Rose Clark | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julija Stoliarenko | 9 of 16 | 56% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Jessica-Rose Clark | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jessica-Rose Clark, citing her slick striking and evolving grappling. He notes that Stoliarenko has zero wrestling and poor takedown accuracy, making it unlikely she can get the fight to the ground where she is dangerous. He believes Clark's cleaner striking will allow her to cruise to a decision.
Big Brady picks Jessica-Rose Clark but is hesitant due to Stoliarenko's dangerous armbar. He notes Clark is the better striker and should implement a wrestling game plan like Alexis Davis did, but worries about Clark's submission defense. He expects Clark to win by decision if she avoids the armbar.
Cody thinks Stoliarenko is better on the feet and has submission threats. He notes Clark's takedowns could lead to armbar opportunities for Stoliarenko. He picks Stoliarenko but isn't confident enough for a Shoei bet.
Daniel Levi picks Jessica-Rose Clark, believing she is better everywhere except against the armbar. He notes that Clark has a history of making mental mistakes, such as in her last fight where she did the one thing they trained not to do. He is wary of Stoliarenko's armbar specialty but thinks Clark should win if she fights smart. He does not bet due to recency bias and lack of trust.
Stoliarenko is a submission specialist with 8 of 9 wins via armbar. Clark can be sloppy on top and Stoliarenko will threaten submissions from her back. Clark's win over Sarah Alpar may be overvalued; she was exposed by Stephanie Edgar. Stoliarenko's armbar is a live threat at plus money.
Paul leans toward Stoliarenko, noting her submission skills and striking. He thinks Clark's best path is to clinch, but Stoliarenko can win on the feet or via submission. He recommends taking the moneyline rather than props.
The MMA Guru picks Jessica-Rose Clark, citing her improved grappling training at AKA and her ability to use it against Julija Stoliarenko, who has been outgrappled repeatedly in the UFC. He notes Stoliarenko has nothing off her back and expects Clark to cruise to a 30-27 unanimous decision with top control.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Davis | 0 | 85 of 120 | 70% | 171 of 218 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 9:09 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 56 of 113 | 49% | 93 of 154 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexis Davis | 0 | 22 of 26 | 84% | 63 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:52 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 20 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexis Davis | 0 | 38 of 60 | 63% | 38 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 45 of 96 | 46% | 45 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexis Davis | 0 | 25 of 34 | 73% | 70 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:17 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 28 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Davis | 85 of 120 | 70% | 55 of 86 | 9 of 12 | 21 of 22 | 41 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 43 of 55 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 56 of 113 | 49% | 40 of 94 | 14 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 51 of 108 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexis Davis | 22 of 26 | 84% | 22 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 26 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 3 of 3 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Alexis Davis | 38 of 60 | 63% | 14 of 33 | 5 of 7 | 19 of 20 | 37 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 45 of 96 | 46% | 32 of 81 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexis Davis | 25 of 34 | 73% | 19 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 29 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 8 of 14 | 57% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Alexis Davis as the veteran with experience and fight IQ. He notes Davis is a busy striker with a one-to-one striking differential, but she loses only to top-ranked opponents. Stoliarenko has great jiu-jitsu but poor wrestling and striking. Angelo expects Davis to dominate with combinations and avoid submission threats.
Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Davis has better striking, pace, and ground game. He thinks Stoliarenko is not on Davis's level. He is confident Davis wins but acknowledges women's MMA can be unpredictable.
Daniel Levi picks Alexis Davis but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Davis is a veteran with experience, but she has lost four of her last five and is 38. Stoliarenko is known for armbars off her back. Levi thinks Davis should win but the -240 price is too high, so he advises passing or taking the dog. He picks Davis but says it's not a betting opportunity.
Lock of the Night picks Davis, citing her superior striking and experience. He notes Stoliarenko's only path is armbar, but Davis is a tenured black belt. He expects Davis to win via decision or possibly finish. He likes Davis by decision at even money.
Paul thinks Davis has superior skills everywhere and should win easily. He notes that Stoliarenko's only threat is an armbar, but Davis is a veteran who should avoid that. He is confident Davis wins by decision and likes the Davis by decision prop.
The MMA Guru picks Alexis Davis, calling her underrated despite her record. He notes she has had close fights with top fighters like Viviane Araujo and Jennifer Maia, but often loses due to being cut by bigger shots. He dismisses Julija Stoliarenko as 'hot trash' and predicts a 30-26 decision win for Davis, with a 10-8 third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Avila | 0 | 48 of 91 | 52% | 107 of 163 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 2 | 3:31 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 40 of 94 | 42% | 60 of 115 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 3:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julia Avila | 0 | 29 of 58 | 50% | 29 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 27 of 65 | 41% | 27 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Julia Avila | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 42 of 59 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:28 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 21 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:34 | |
| 3 | Julia Avila | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 36 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 3:03 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Avila | 48 of 91 | 52% | 31 of 72 | 11 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 42 of 84 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 40 of 94 | 42% | 27 of 73 | 5 of 9 | 8 of 12 | 37 of 88 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julia Avila | 29 of 58 | 50% | 21 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 27 of 65 | 41% | 18 of 49 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 9 | 27 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Julia Avila | 17 of 30 | 56% | 8 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Julia Avila | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Julia Avila, reasoning that Stoliarenko will accept being on her back, throw up submissions but not get any, and end up losing a decision. He notes Avila is a heavy-handed brawler who is aggressive on top. He advises staying away from Avila in betting due to high price but likes the over on strikes.
Big Brady picks Julia Avila to win by KO, citing her massive striking advantage and strength. He warns against going to the ground with Stoliarenko, who has eight armbar wins, but believes Avila can keep it standing and finish. He notes Stoliarenko's poor wrestling and that she has been finished by strikes in half her losses. He would not bet Avila at -400 but expects her to win.
Cody picks Avila, noting her athletic background and well-rounded skills. He criticizes Stoliarenko's level of competition and one-dimensional armbar game. He thinks Avila's striking and top game will be too much, and Stoliarenko's only path is pulling guard, which plays into Avila's strength. He is confident but acknowledges the price is high.
Jacob picks Julija Stoliarenko, citing her judo throw into armbar that she has done many times. He mentions that Joe Todora says Avila is his girl so he will stay away from her. Jacob is confident Stoliarenko finds a way to get the submission.
Avila should keep the fight on the feet and overpower Stoliarenko. Stoliarenko is dangerous off her back with armbars, so Avila must be careful. Avila will look for a knockout via ground and pound after dropping her. The under 2.5 rounds is intriguing as both are live for finishes. However, Avila at -345 is not a betting recommendation.
Paul picks Avila, noting Stoliarenko's poor UFC debut and limited skills. He thinks Avila's wrestling and striking are superior. He is not excited about the -360 price but sees Avila as a safe play. He mentions that Stoliarenko passed out on the scale in their previous booking, which is a red flag.
The MMA Guru picks Julia Avila, noting her better record, competition, and technique. He highlights her hands and combination punching, referencing her first-round finish of Gina Mazany. He also points out Stoliarenko's severe weight cut issues (fainting on the scales twice) as a major red flag, making Avila the safer bet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yana Kunitskaya | 0 | 43 of 57 | 75% | 209 of 254 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 13:16 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 30 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yana Kunitskaya | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 64 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:22 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 18 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 2 | Yana Kunitskaya | 0 | 23 of 26 | 88% | 92 of 108 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:44 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 3 | Yana Kunitskaya | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 53 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:10 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yana Kunitskaya | 43 of 57 | 75% | 20 of 34 | 20 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 19 | 29 of 32 | 6 of 6 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 6 of 26 | 23% | 5 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yana Kunitskaya | 8 of 12 | 66% | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yana Kunitskaya | 23 of 26 | 88% | 11 of 14 | 10 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 20 | 5 of 5 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Yana Kunitskaya | 12 of 19 | 63% | 6 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Julija Stoliarenko | 3 of 16 | 18% | 2 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Kunitskaya but is not confident enough to bet her. He believes she is the better striker and can win by staying off the ground, but worries she might take Stoliarenko down, which plays into Stoliarenko's submission game. He compares it to the Balbina vs Jojua fight where a similar mistake led to a loss. He predicts a decision win for Kunitskaya.
Daniel Levi picks Julija Stoliarenko to win by submission, specifically an armbar. He acknowledges that Yana Kunitskaya is the better fighter overall but believes she is prone to getting submitted, as seen in her past fights. Levi notes that Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist with many first-round finishes, and he expects her to pull guard and secure the submission at some point during the fight.
Kunitskaya is technically superior with good kickboxing and range control. However, she struggles in the pocket and can be pressured. Stoliarenko is a brawler with devastating elbows and a dangerous armbar from the clinch. The line at -235 is too wide; Stoliarenko offers value at +200. Kunitskaya likely wins by decision if she keeps it at range, but Stoliarenko could finish.
The MMA Guru picks Yana Kunitskaya because she has good clinch control and can hold opponents against the cage, as seen in her fight with Aspen Ladd. He notes that Julija Stoliarenko is taking the fight on short notice and went to a split decision against a lesser opponent. He believes Kunitskaya's clinch work will be the difference.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Julija Stoliarenko to win but strongly advises against betting on her. He compares her to Malcolm Gordon, a previous 'cash cow' that lost. He notes that Stoliarenko's path to victory is getting a takedown, but she is not a good fighter overall. He emphasizes that Luana Carolina is the better fighter overall but has been taken down frequently, which could be exploited.
Big Brady picks Julija Stoliarenko to win by first-round armbar. He notes that Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist with 10 wins by armbar, all in the first round. He believes her aggressiveness and improved wrestling will cause problems for Luana Carolina, who has questionable decision-making and has almost been submitted in recent fights. He expects the fight to hit the mat, where Stoliarenko is extremely dangerous.
Cody picks Stoliarenko by submission, calling it the play of the week. He notes Stoliarenko's elite armbar from guard and Carolina's poor takedown defense and physical strength. He expects Stoliarenko to get the fight to the mat and submit her quickly.
Stoliarenko's persistence and expertise in armbars should be too much for Carolina. Once Stoliarenko snatches an arm, it's only a matter of time before she gets the tap. Carolina's takedown defense is improving, but Stoliarenko's strength and Judo will likely get the fight to the ground.
Paul picks Stoliarenko by submission, agreeing with Cody. He highlights Carolina's vulnerability to takedowns and Stoliarenko's dangerous armbar. He thinks the plus-205 price is excellent value.
The MMA Guru picks Luana Carolina over Julija Stoliarenko, questioning whether Stoliarenko is actually good or just benefited from Molly McCann's poor ground game. He notes Carolina has better standup and overall ability, and that Stoliarenko has a rough weight cut at 125. He expects Carolina to win, likely as an underdog.
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