Career Averages - Nikita Krylov
Career Averages - Modestas Bukauskas
Nikita Krylov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 1 | 72 of 137 | 52% | 94 of 164 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 40 of 108 | 37% | 43 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 25 of 48 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 11 of 32 | 34% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:56 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 1 | 39 of 69 | 56% | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 18 of 55 | 32% | 18 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 72 of 137 | 52% | 25 of 76 | 22 of 34 | 25 of 27 | 64 of 128 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 40 of 108 | 37% | 35 of 101 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 40 of 108 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 10 of 28 | 35% | 3 of 17 | 1 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 11 of 21 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 23 of 40 | 57% | 8 of 20 | 8 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 11 of 32 | 34% | 8 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 39 of 69 | 56% | 14 of 39 | 13 of 16 | 12 of 14 | 35 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 18 of 55 | 32% | 16 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-165), Krylov (+130)
Round 1
A 205-pound smash-‘em-up derby keeps the action going, as the two men about to set foot in the cage are eying that new $25K finish bonus on top of the raised $100K for Fight of the Night and Performance of the Night. Krylov (30-11, 11-9 UFC) may be gunning for the latter of those two bonus checks, given his 93% stoppage rate with 23 of his 28 finishes coming in Round 1. “The Baltic Gladiator” Bukauskas (19-6, 7-4 UFC) will need to be on his best behavior when taking on the offensive force of the Ukrainian by way of Russia, and referee Marc Goddard will see to that. They touch gloves.
Krylov bounces back and forth on his heels, and he times a high kick that careens off the guard and a low kick that slaps off the front leg. When Krylov tosses out another naked leg kick, Bukauskas belts him with a pair of punches. Krylov gets away with another calf kick, and his subsequent offering to the midsection comes up short. Bukauskas winds up and hurls punches at his opponent, who backs straight up and is just out of range. Krylov attempts a single-leg entry, and he proceeds to press Bukauskas against the cage wall. Bukauskas looks to use a body lock when the first effort fails, and he works his foe’s knees while grinding on him. Krylov aims to slip his leg around Bukauskas’ to disrupt his balance, and he tackles the Lithuanian to the floor for a moment. Bukauskas bounces back up and gets pushed to the wall, and the crowd is not having it.
Krylov transitions from one takedown attempt to another, but Bukauskas is able to defend them and stay upright. Goddard claps for them to do more, and Krylov grabs hold of a single and lifts the leg up high. Bukauskas springs away and barely evades a head kick on the way out, and when he tries to engage, he gets caught with a right hand on the temple. Krylov peppers with kicks on the outside, and one of his low kicks is met with a blistering right hand that makes him take a quick count of his teeth. Bukauskas swats with a left and then a right hand, and Krylov springs into action with a kick and swinging fists that miss by a wide margin. Another Krylov blitz is met with counters, but he steels himself and shakes up “The Baltic Gladiator” with a right hand. Bukauskas retreats to gather his thoughts, and Krylov lets him off the hook as the two reach the round horn for the first time of any fight tonight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Round 2
The 205ers touch gloves to get started, and it takes a couple seconds before Krylov unveils his first offensive tactic of a body kick. Bukauskas replies with a one-two, and they both toss out kicks at the same time to different targets. Bukauskas clips Krylov with a left hand on the way out, and fists quickly fly in an exchange at the center of the cage. Krylov works the body with a kick, and this draws out some hard swings from Bukauskas that drive him back. The Ukrainian ducks a huge haymaker and engages in a clinch with hopes of scoring a takedown, but Bukauskas is able to stifle them and spin him around against the wire. They jockey for position and trade knees up the middle, with neither man gaining the upper hand as they stay at it.
Krylov gets off a solid knee to the breadbasket and shoots, but the takedown hits a wall. Goddard asks for them to do more, and they answer by shoving one another away. Krylov’s mouthpiece falls out, and he quickly puts it back in as Bukauskas lets him do so. Krylov lumbers forward and smacks Bukauskas in the temple with a lead-leg head kick, and he skims his man on the temple with a looping left. Bukauskas sits down on a chopping kick, and he slides away from the trio of punches aimed at his mug. Krylov narrowly evades bombs chucked at his chin, although Bukauskas is able to get him a few times. Krylov strikes back, with his blows having an impact as Bukauskas’ left cheek is swelling up fast. Krylov ducks down for a looping right, and he dodges a big right hand and manages to kick the body on the way out. Bukauskas overswings his right hand and is blocked, with “The Baltic Gladiator” hunting for that home run blow. He manages to get off a spinning back kick to the body, and they trade hands until the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Round 3
The two reach the final round and share a fist bump before throwing caution to the wind. Both men lob huge hooks at one another, and they largely escape the damage from them thanks to just enough head movement. Krylov goes low to high with two kicks, and he steps in and blasts Bukauskas with a left hand. Krylov gets off another booming punch, and Bukauskas sits down on counters but largely comes up short. “The Miner” digs a kick to the midsection and is countered, but the damage is done as his kick connected. Bukauskas waits for the one big opening, and Krylov is dancing around the edges of range hitting him with anything he offers. Bukauskas snaps the head back with a solid left, but it is one-and-done before Krylov rushes at him to trade leather. Bukauskas clips him again, and Krylov pays no attention to the blow and plods ever forward. He works the body with a kick, and sways back from the looping counters.
Bukauskas lands a calf kick, and Krylov nods at him and doubles up on kicks from his rear leg. Bukauskas keeps his guard up to defend himself from the blows, and he winds up on a right hand that misses the mark. Krylov tanks two punches on the jaw and frustrates his foe with push kicks to the body. Krylov sneaks in a left hand while hurling heavy shots, and Bukauskas is left playing catch-up. They trade punches after Bukauskas absorbs a calf kick, and Bukauskas tries to take advantage of the strike by loading up on more. They miss, and the crowd boos. Krylov leads with a low kick into a jab, and he gets caught by a right hand and waves Bukauskas on for more. Bukauskas gives him more with a crisp left, and Krylov dances around and switches stances a few times. Krylov dodges a wheel kick and gets blazed with a right hand, and he is on a mission. Hearing the 10-second clapper, “The Miner” digs deep and unloads with a fire and fury while Bukauskas is overloading on his own strikes.
Krylov catches his man cleanly with a ferocious right hand that sets “The Baltic Gladiator” down and forces his eyes to roll around in his head. Bukauskas turns to try to recover, crawling to his knees to the fence, and Krylov races after him and batters him with destructive right hands. One particularly effective fist shuts Bukauskas’ lights out and his post arms give way, leading to Bukauskas collapsing on his face like a failed push-up.
Goddard sees that Bukauskas went out and rushes in to stop the fight, keeping the finish streak—and buzzer-beater pattern—alive today. It may have taken just about 15 minutes to get there, but Krylov registered a huge knockout after a close battle, his first since 2022 when he smoked Alexander Gustafsson.
The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Modestas Bukauskas R3 4:57 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, trusting his takedown defense and power. He thinks Nikita Krylov is the better overall fighter but has a weak chin, and Bukauskas only needs one clean shot. He warns Bukauskas not to engage in grappling like he did against Paul Craig.
Big Brady thinks Krylov is washed, citing his age (33 but 41 fights), long layoff, and two recent KO losses where he looked old and hesitant. He notes Krylov has stopped grappling, which was his best attribute. Bukauskas has been improving, and Brady expects him to knock out Krylov in the second round.
Cody confidently picks Bukauskas, arguing that Krylov is washed after a two-year layoff and two first-round KO losses. He notes Bukauskas's defensive wrestling and cardio should allow him to survive the first round and take over. Cody believes Bukauskas's ring generalship and durability will be enough to edge out a win.
Connor is sad about Krylov's decline, noting his chin is gone after two consecutive knockouts. He observes that Krylov looks panicked and flailing in recent fights, while Bukauskas has been improving, becoming more composed and taking opportunities. Connor believes Bukauskas's accuracy and incidental power could lead to a knockout, especially given Krylov's compromised durability.
Daniel Vreeland picks Modestas Bukauskas to win by knockout. He notes that Krylov has lost two straight by first-round KO and appears washed, while Bukauskas is on a hot streak and brimming with confidence. Vreeland believes Bukauskas is catching Krylov at the perfect time and will get the biggest win of his career.
James picks Krylov as an underdog, believing the line is too wide due to recency bias. He notes Krylov's superior skill set and grappling, and that Bukauskas has struggled with grappling. He also mentions inside info that Bukauskas's training camp has been disrupted. However, he acknowledges Krylov's chin might be shot.
The host picks Bukauskas by knockout, believing his improved striking and defensive grappling will nullify Krylov's takedowns. He notes Krylov is on a two-fight losing streak and may be desperate, but Bukauskas's recent form and training with top heavyweights give him the edge. He loves the -140 line but has slight pause due to Bukauskas's past bonehead mistakes.
Paul leans toward Modestas Bukauskas, citing Krylov's recent durability issues and poor form. He notes Bukauskas is a generalist who can outwork Krylov, especially if the fight goes past the first round. Paul is hesitant due to Bukauskas's wrestling vulnerability but believes Krylov's decline is real.
The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Nikita Krylov's charging style and chin. He notes Bukauskas's growing confidence and counter-striking ability, predicting a KO in round two after an initial scrap.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Krylov's chin is gone and he looks like he's swimming out there. He notes that Bukauskas is peaking at 31 and has become more accurate and composed. Zane also comments on Krylov's lack of confidence and panicked starts, which Bukauskas can exploit.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 16 of 34 | 47% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 23 of 43 | 53% | 20 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 16 of 34 | 47% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 23 of 43 | 53% | 20 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 17 |
Angelo picks Nikita Krylov, citing his well-rounded skills, high fight IQ, and clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes Bogdan Guskov has power but showed wrestling holes in his last fight. He uses MMA math (Krylov beat Volkan, Volkan beat Guskov) and expects Krylov to wrestle. He will not bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov, citing a significant grappling advantage. He notes Guskov has been outgrappled by lesser fighters like Billy Elekana and Volkan Oezdemir, and believes Krylov will take him down and submit him easily. He worries about Krylov's durability and fight IQ but thinks if he wrestles, he wins. He predicts a first-round submission.
Connor acknowledges Krylov's shaky confidence after the Reyes KO but believes Guskov's style is more manageable. He notes Guskov's poor takedown defense and Krylov's clear path to win via wrestling. He thinks Krylov will test his grappling early and avoid striking exchanges.
This is a perfect matchup for Krylov to utilize his grapple-heavy approach, keep Guskov on his back, grind him out, and clearly win on the scorecards or even lock up a late submission.
The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov, citing his patience, calmness, and ability to eat shots and break opponents. He criticizes Nikita Krylov for returning too soon after a KO loss and being too wild. He predicts an early TKO, possibly in round one or two, with multiple knockdowns.
Zane picks Krylov, noting that Guskov is vulnerable to wrestling and Krylov has the skills to exploit that. He sees the potential for disaster if Krylov hesitates, but believes the path to victory is clear via takedowns and ground control.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 4 of 22 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 4 of 22 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Connor picks Krylov, agreeing with Zane that Krylov's chain wrestling and durability are key. He notes that Reyes has shown good basic takedown defense but has not faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Connor also points out that Krylov's approach of putting opponents on one leg and making them hop is effective against bigger fighters. He acknowledges that if Reyes can stuff the first few takedowns, he could hurt Krylov, but believes Krylov's pressure will eventually pay off.
Daniel Levi notes that Dominick Reyes got back on track with a knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one. He describes Nikita Krylov as a wild man with a karate style that runs forward, which allowed Reyes to counter him. He is happy for Reyes' comeback story.
Lucrative James leans towards Nikita Krylov, citing his durability, pace, and ability to break opponents. He thinks Krylov's hurricane style and wrestling pressure will wear down Reyes. He acknowledges Reyes' power and step-back left hand but believes Krylov's chin and volume will be too much. He notes that Reyes has been knocked out multiple times, while Krylov has shown better durability. He says it's a close fight and he wouldn't lay juice on Krylov, but if forced to pick, he sides with Krylov inside the distance.
Zane picks Krylov, citing his relentless chain wrestling and ability to overwhelm opponents with volume. He notes that Reyes has good first-layer takedown defense but has rarely faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Zane also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out, only submitted, and that Reyes lacks the submission threat to finish him on the ground. He believes Krylov's wrestling pressure will be too much for Reyes to handle over three rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 24 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 2:39 |
| Ryan Spann | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 2 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 24 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 2:39 |
| Ryan Spann | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 2 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 7 of 12 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Ryan Spann | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 7 of 12 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Ryan Spann | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-170), Spann (+145)
Round 1
Two weeks later than expected, fans in the building should soon be treated to an all-action slugfest in what was supposed to be the UFC Vegas 70 headliner. A combined 38 first-round finishes have come between Krylov (29-9, 10-7 UFC) and Spann (21-7, 7-2 UFC), with stellar stoppage rates of 93% for the former and 86% for the Texan. Referee Herb Dean better buckle up for this one, although he is able to take solace knowing it is still a matchup without any bad blood. With the cancelation a few weeks ago, this is no longer taking place at light heavyweight, and instead at 215 pounds. Fists are bumped before they throw down, and when they do, it should be one heck of a show. Spann reaches out with an early jab as Krylov kicks, and Spann follows it with a few punches that knock Krylov around. Krylov gains space after bouncing off the fence, and he pops Spann with a right hand to wobble the Texan’s legs. Krylov advances to try to keep swinging, and he ends up clinched up with his opponent. Spann throws Krylov down to the mat, and he lands on top and starts fishing for a submission. Krylov sits up and finds his neck in submission danger, but he shucks off the first guillotine choke try as Spann switches to a brabo choke. Krylov stays patient, and Spann adjusts his head and settles down with another guillotine. “The Miner” digs through the pain and discomfort to yank his neck free, and the two fighters work their way back upright. Krylov holds Spann from behind and kicks him in the side of the face awkwardly, and he drags Spann down to the ground. Spann turns the tables to take Krylov down, and Spann winds up in a guillotine choke threat on the other side. Spann slides out the back door and frees himself, and he grabs a two-on-one wrist lock in an attempt to scramble out. Krylov stays tightly pressed to him and lands a few punches that might have hit the back of the head. Spann stands up and Krylov falls over, and Spann jumps on top of him to drop hammers down.
When Spann lands on top, Krylov wraps his legs up around his opponent's head to tighten up a triangle choke. Spann knows this time, there is no way out, as he fell right into a trap. “Superman” is forced to surrender to the choke, as the crowd is silenced at the sudden conclusion of the mighty grappling battle.
This gives the victor, who is not representing a country given the Russian invasion of his home country of Ukraine, his 30th pro win and 28th by stoppage.
The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Ryan Spann R1 3:38 via Submission (Triangle Choke)
Angelo originally picked Nikita Krylov due to his wrestling and grinding ability, but the illness has significantly reduced his confidence. He still thinks Krylov will win if he is 100%, but he is no longer betting on him. He suggests a prop bet on Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) because Spann is dangerous and the fight is now three rounds instead of five.
Big Brady picks Ryan Spann for the slight upset, noting both fighters have durability issues. He questions Krylov's submission defense (submitted six times) and Spann's chin. Brady expects a first-round finish, predicting Spann locks up a guillotine when Krylov shoots for takedowns. He has low confidence but thinks someone gets finished early.
Cody flips to Ryan Spann, citing Krylov's recent illness and the change from five rounds to three rounds. He thinks Spann's cardio is less of a concern in a three-round fight and notes Spann's submission threat. He believes the narrative of Krylov pulling out is enough to take the underdog.
Connor picks Krylov, emphasizing his durability and relentless wrestling. He notes that Spann has poor takedown defense (83% takedown defense when excluding the Enrique fight) and that Krylov will keep shooting takedowns. Connor also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out and is crafty in finding ways to win. He expects Krylov to survive Spann's early power and take over with grappling.
I think Krylov's improved grappling and takedown game will be key. He should drag Spann to the ground and work from top position, but he must be careful of Spann's guillotine. Spann's early power is a threat, but if Krylov survives the first round, he can take over. I expect a submission or TKO in the latter rounds. However, the early threat from Spann makes me hesitant to bet this fight.
Paul picks Krylov but with less confidence than two weeks ago due to Krylov pulling out of the previous fight. He notes Krylov's improvements and path to victory via takedowns, but questions why Krylov pulled out. He thinks the -170 price is about right and calls it a stay-away.
The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov, citing Ryan Spann's weight cut issues and the fact that Spann missed weight in his last fight. He believes Krylov's illness may help him keep weight down, while Spann will struggle with two weight cuts back-to-back. He predicts Krylov will push the pace, take Spann down, and get a TKO or submission in the later rounds.
Zane picks Krylov, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He highlights Spann's terrible takedown defense and Krylov's durability. Zane notes that Krylov is not a clean technician but makes good decisions and is flexible. He expects Krylov to take Spann down and grind out a win, as Spann is chinny and tense.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 42 of 81 | 51% | 108 of 157 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 57 of 121 | 47% | 171 of 251 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 1 | 0 | 9:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 46 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 26 of 58 | 44% | 31 of 64 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 2:02 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 42 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 54 of 78 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 86 of 109 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 42 of 81 | 51% | 35 of 72 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 34 of 68 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 4 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 57 of 121 | 47% | 42 of 100 | 12 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 38 of 93 | 12 of 17 | 7 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 27 of 50 | 54% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 39 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 4 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 26 of 58 | 44% | 17 of 46 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 45 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 3 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 11 of 18 | 61% | 8 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 11 of 27 | 40% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 20 of 36 | 55% | 15 of 30 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 |
Big Brady picks Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He notes Oezdemir looked off in his last fight against Paul Craig and is getting older. Krylov has multiple paths to victory: knockout on the feet or submission on the ground, with 27 of 28 wins inside the distance. He believes Krylov's pressure and finishing ability will be too much for Oezdemir.
Cody picks Krylov, noting his fast starts and power. He thinks Krylov can catch Oezdemir early and finish him. Cody acknowledges Krylov's poor decisions and gas tank but believes Oezdemir's best days are behind him. He sees Krylov as the better fighter at this point.
Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov to win, believing Krylov is showing the best version of himself while Volkan Oezdemir is fizzling out. He notes Krylov's improved submission defense and well-rounded game, and that he performed well against top competition like Magomed Ankalaev. Levi thinks Oezdemir is a traditional kickboxer who has declined, while Krylov blends punches, kicks, and takedowns. He does not see much value in the line but picks Krylov.
Paul leans Oezdemir as an underdog, citing his takedown defense and experience. He notes that only Daniel Cormier has taken Oezdemir down more than once. Paul thinks Krylov's wrestling is overrated and that Oezdemir will make it a slow fight. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Oezdemir.
The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov over Volkan Oezdemir, despite Oezdemir's win over Paul Craig. He notes Krylov was dominating Craig before getting caught, while Oezdemir looked slow and tired. He highlights Krylov's reach advantage, head kicks, and momentum from a KO win, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 2 | 26 of 44 | 59% | 26 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 2 | 26 of 44 | 59% | 26 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 26 of 44 | 59% | 24 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 10 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 26 of 44 | 59% | 24 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 10 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Nikita Krylov but is hesitant due to Gustafsson's two-year layoff and three-fight losing streak. He notes Krylov is well-rounded and has a good chin, but questions his fight IQ after the Paul Craig loss. He says the odds favoring Krylov are surprising and calls it a no-bet situation, expecting Gustafsson to look older and slower.
Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov to win by finish (ground and pound or submission in round 2). He is hesitant due to question marks about Gustafsson's layoff and motivation. He notes Gustafsson hasn't won in five years and hasn't fought in two years. Krylov is more active and dangerous, but if Gustafsson shows up motivated, it's a different fight.
Cody leans towards Alexander Gustafsson, citing that his losses are to top competition and he may have recaptured motivation after a two-year layoff. He notes Krylov has durability issues and tends to fade in later rounds. Cody thinks Gustafsson can use his mobility and grappling to neutralize Krylov and win a decision. He acknowledges there are many red flags but sees value in the underdog.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Nikita Krylov, arguing that Gustafsson is past his prime and has already retired once, saying he didn't have what it takes anymore. He notes that Krylov is only 30 and entering his prime, with a well-rounded game and a Kyokushin karate background. Levi acknowledges Krylov's occasional bonehead mistakes but believes he will outwork Gustafsson. He also mentions that he likes fading washed-up fighters and that Krylov is a motivated underdog in this spot.
Gustafsson looks in phenomenal shape and has a big skill advantage over Krylov. His takedown defense is 83%. Krylov's wins are over lesser competition. If Gustafsson is even 70% of his peak, he wins handily. However, motivation is a question mark, so I'm passing on betting but predicting Gustafsson.
Paul picks Alexander Gustafsson at plus money, calling minus 200 on Krylov ridiculous. He notes Gustafsson has looked horrible recently but his losses are to elite fighters. Paul admits he doesn't have the courage to bet Gustafsson confidently and will wait for weigh-ins. He says he won't bet money on it.
The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov to win by submission in the first or second round. He questions Gustafsson's reasons for returning and notes Krylov is underrated. Krylov put a pace on Ankalaev and has great stand-up. Gustafsson has poor ground game and has been submitted when taken down. Krylov will take him down and secure a submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 30 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 |
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 30 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 |
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 19 of 25 | 76% | 18 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 22 |
| Nikita Krylov | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 19 of 25 | 76% | 18 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 22 |
| Nikita Krylov | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks Paul Craig as an underdog, noting his incredible toughness and submission threat. He thinks Krylov is more well-rounded but less dangerous, and will likely win a decision if he fights perfectly. He expects Craig to withstand a beating and find a finish on the ground. He plans to bet on Paul Craig wins inside the distance (decision no action) at plus money.
Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He likes Krylov's knockout power and believes Paul Craig's chin is suspect. Brady notes that if the fight goes to the mat, Craig is dangerous with submissions, but he thinks Krylov can avoid the grappling and finish early. He also mentions Craig's talk of retirement as a potential factor.
Cody picks Krylov but is hesitant, noting Krylov's tendency to make bad decisions and engage in grappling with submission experts. He thinks Krylov should win if he keeps it standing, but worries he might get caught. He prefers Craig by submission as a prop.
Daniel Levi picks Paul Craig by submission at +450, noting that Nikita Krylov has five career submission losses and a history of making bonehead mistakes on the mat. He believes Craig only needs one opportunity to snatch a submission, as seen against Jamal Hill. Levi acknowledges Krylov may win the minutes and has knockout potential, but at plus money, he's willing to bet on Craig's opportunistic submission game. He also mentions the hometown advantage for Craig in the UK.
Krylov has power striking and good combinations, which should overwhelm Craig on the feet. However, five of Krylov's eight losses are by submission, a huge red flag against a submission specialist like Craig. Craig is dangerous off his back, constantly throwing up submissions. The fight likely ends inside the distance, but Krylov's striking advantage should lead to a knockout. I'm picking Krylov by KO, but the fight doesn't go to decision is my favorite bet.
Paul picks Krylov confidently, arguing that Krylov has fought elite competition and improved his takedown defense. He believes Krylov's striking is far superior and that Craig's wins are overrated. He thinks Krylov will win by KO if he fights smart.
The Guru picks Nikita Krylov, arguing he is underrated and has better performances than Paul Craig. He notes Krylov held his own against Glover Teixeira and outgrappled Magomed Ankalaev in round one. He criticizes Craig's chin and mentions Craig's retirement talk. He predicts a first-round TKO on the feet, as Craig tends to go down when hit clean.
Modestas Bukauskas - Fight History
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, trusting his gut despite an uneasy feeling. He notes Bukauskas can stop some takedowns and have success striking, leading to a decision win. He recalls Bellato losing similar fights where he had takedowns but was behind on striking. He has seen Bellato quit before.
Lucrative James tentatively picks Modestas Bukauskas via decision, but expresses low confidence. He notes Bukauskas's superior footwork and range management, but also highlights concerns about his training camp disruption and lack of finishing ability. He suggests the fight could go either way and may bet on Bellato if the odds are favorable.
The host thinks Bukauskas is technically superior and should outwork Bellato, but he is hesitant due to Bellato's knockout power and aggression. He predicts Bukauskas wins by decision but would only bet if the line becomes a pick'em or Bukauskas becomes the underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 36 of 80 | 45% | 52 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
| Christian Edwards | 0 | 36 of 71 | 50% | 51 of 89 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 10 of 29 | 34% | 19 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Christian Edwards | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
| Christian Edwards | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Christian Edwards | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 36 of 80 | 45% | 21 of 64 | 10 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 74 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Edwards | 36 of 71 | 50% | 13 of 41 | 17 of 20 | 6 of 10 | 27 of 61 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 10 of 29 | 34% | 4 of 22 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Edwards | 11 of 30 | 36% | 2 of 16 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 16 of 28 | 57% | 14 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Edwards | 11 of 22 | 50% | 3 of 12 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 10 of 23 | 43% | 3 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Edwards | 14 of 19 | 73% | 8 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Cody reluctantly picks Modestas Bukauskas, noting that Christian Edwards has shown poor durability, heart, and grappling. He acknowledges that Bukauskas is not a high-level fighter but has fought better competition. However, he is not confident at -280 and considers it a dog-or-pass fight. He suggests Bukauskas by decision or an over 2.5 rounds prop.
Bukauskas is better everywhere and Edwards is on short notice. Bukauskas should win easily, but the odds are too short to bet. No interest in fight spread or over/under.
Paul struggles to pick a side, finding it hard to back Modestas Bukauskas at -280 and also not confident in Christian Edwards. He notes that Edwards has been knocked out by Ben Parish and lost to Rake Cleveland, but is still young and training at a good gym. He decides to pass from a betting perspective.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 1 | 72 of 137 | 52% | 94 of 164 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 40 of 108 | 37% | 43 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 25 of 48 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 11 of 32 | 34% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:56 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 1 | 39 of 69 | 56% | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 18 of 55 | 32% | 18 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 72 of 137 | 52% | 25 of 76 | 22 of 34 | 25 of 27 | 64 of 128 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 40 of 108 | 37% | 35 of 101 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 40 of 108 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 10 of 28 | 35% | 3 of 17 | 1 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 11 of 21 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 23 of 40 | 57% | 8 of 20 | 8 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 11 of 32 | 34% | 8 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 39 of 69 | 56% | 14 of 39 | 13 of 16 | 12 of 14 | 35 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 18 of 55 | 32% | 16 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-165), Krylov (+130)
Round 1
A 205-pound smash-‘em-up derby keeps the action going, as the two men about to set foot in the cage are eying that new $25K finish bonus on top of the raised $100K for Fight of the Night and Performance of the Night. Krylov (30-11, 11-9 UFC) may be gunning for the latter of those two bonus checks, given his 93% stoppage rate with 23 of his 28 finishes coming in Round 1. “The Baltic Gladiator” Bukauskas (19-6, 7-4 UFC) will need to be on his best behavior when taking on the offensive force of the Ukrainian by way of Russia, and referee Marc Goddard will see to that. They touch gloves.
Krylov bounces back and forth on his heels, and he times a high kick that careens off the guard and a low kick that slaps off the front leg. When Krylov tosses out another naked leg kick, Bukauskas belts him with a pair of punches. Krylov gets away with another calf kick, and his subsequent offering to the midsection comes up short. Bukauskas winds up and hurls punches at his opponent, who backs straight up and is just out of range. Krylov attempts a single-leg entry, and he proceeds to press Bukauskas against the cage wall. Bukauskas looks to use a body lock when the first effort fails, and he works his foe’s knees while grinding on him. Krylov aims to slip his leg around Bukauskas’ to disrupt his balance, and he tackles the Lithuanian to the floor for a moment. Bukauskas bounces back up and gets pushed to the wall, and the crowd is not having it.
Krylov transitions from one takedown attempt to another, but Bukauskas is able to defend them and stay upright. Goddard claps for them to do more, and Krylov grabs hold of a single and lifts the leg up high. Bukauskas springs away and barely evades a head kick on the way out, and when he tries to engage, he gets caught with a right hand on the temple. Krylov peppers with kicks on the outside, and one of his low kicks is met with a blistering right hand that makes him take a quick count of his teeth. Bukauskas swats with a left and then a right hand, and Krylov springs into action with a kick and swinging fists that miss by a wide margin. Another Krylov blitz is met with counters, but he steels himself and shakes up “The Baltic Gladiator” with a right hand. Bukauskas retreats to gather his thoughts, and Krylov lets him off the hook as the two reach the round horn for the first time of any fight tonight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Round 2
The 205ers touch gloves to get started, and it takes a couple seconds before Krylov unveils his first offensive tactic of a body kick. Bukauskas replies with a one-two, and they both toss out kicks at the same time to different targets. Bukauskas clips Krylov with a left hand on the way out, and fists quickly fly in an exchange at the center of the cage. Krylov works the body with a kick, and this draws out some hard swings from Bukauskas that drive him back. The Ukrainian ducks a huge haymaker and engages in a clinch with hopes of scoring a takedown, but Bukauskas is able to stifle them and spin him around against the wire. They jockey for position and trade knees up the middle, with neither man gaining the upper hand as they stay at it.
Krylov gets off a solid knee to the breadbasket and shoots, but the takedown hits a wall. Goddard asks for them to do more, and they answer by shoving one another away. Krylov’s mouthpiece falls out, and he quickly puts it back in as Bukauskas lets him do so. Krylov lumbers forward and smacks Bukauskas in the temple with a lead-leg head kick, and he skims his man on the temple with a looping left. Bukauskas sits down on a chopping kick, and he slides away from the trio of punches aimed at his mug. Krylov narrowly evades bombs chucked at his chin, although Bukauskas is able to get him a few times. Krylov strikes back, with his blows having an impact as Bukauskas’ left cheek is swelling up fast. Krylov ducks down for a looping right, and he dodges a big right hand and manages to kick the body on the way out. Bukauskas overswings his right hand and is blocked, with “The Baltic Gladiator” hunting for that home run blow. He manages to get off a spinning back kick to the body, and they trade hands until the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Round 3
The two reach the final round and share a fist bump before throwing caution to the wind. Both men lob huge hooks at one another, and they largely escape the damage from them thanks to just enough head movement. Krylov goes low to high with two kicks, and he steps in and blasts Bukauskas with a left hand. Krylov gets off another booming punch, and Bukauskas sits down on counters but largely comes up short. “The Miner” digs a kick to the midsection and is countered, but the damage is done as his kick connected. Bukauskas waits for the one big opening, and Krylov is dancing around the edges of range hitting him with anything he offers. Bukauskas snaps the head back with a solid left, but it is one-and-done before Krylov rushes at him to trade leather. Bukauskas clips him again, and Krylov pays no attention to the blow and plods ever forward. He works the body with a kick, and sways back from the looping counters.
Bukauskas lands a calf kick, and Krylov nods at him and doubles up on kicks from his rear leg. Bukauskas keeps his guard up to defend himself from the blows, and he winds up on a right hand that misses the mark. Krylov tanks two punches on the jaw and frustrates his foe with push kicks to the body. Krylov sneaks in a left hand while hurling heavy shots, and Bukauskas is left playing catch-up. They trade punches after Bukauskas absorbs a calf kick, and Bukauskas tries to take advantage of the strike by loading up on more. They miss, and the crowd boos. Krylov leads with a low kick into a jab, and he gets caught by a right hand and waves Bukauskas on for more. Bukauskas gives him more with a crisp left, and Krylov dances around and switches stances a few times. Krylov dodges a wheel kick and gets blazed with a right hand, and he is on a mission. Hearing the 10-second clapper, “The Miner” digs deep and unloads with a fire and fury while Bukauskas is overloading on his own strikes.
Krylov catches his man cleanly with a ferocious right hand that sets “The Baltic Gladiator” down and forces his eyes to roll around in his head. Bukauskas turns to try to recover, crawling to his knees to the fence, and Krylov races after him and batters him with destructive right hands. One particularly effective fist shuts Bukauskas’ lights out and his post arms give way, leading to Bukauskas collapsing on his face like a failed push-up.
Goddard sees that Bukauskas went out and rushes in to stop the fight, keeping the finish streak—and buzzer-beater pattern—alive today. It may have taken just about 15 minutes to get there, but Krylov registered a huge knockout after a close battle, his first since 2022 when he smoked Alexander Gustafsson.
The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Modestas Bukauskas R3 4:57 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, trusting his takedown defense and power. He thinks Nikita Krylov is the better overall fighter but has a weak chin, and Bukauskas only needs one clean shot. He warns Bukauskas not to engage in grappling like he did against Paul Craig.
Big Brady thinks Krylov is washed, citing his age (33 but 41 fights), long layoff, and two recent KO losses where he looked old and hesitant. He notes Krylov has stopped grappling, which was his best attribute. Bukauskas has been improving, and Brady expects him to knock out Krylov in the second round.
Cody confidently picks Bukauskas, arguing that Krylov is washed after a two-year layoff and two first-round KO losses. He notes Bukauskas's defensive wrestling and cardio should allow him to survive the first round and take over. Cody believes Bukauskas's ring generalship and durability will be enough to edge out a win.
Connor is sad about Krylov's decline, noting his chin is gone after two consecutive knockouts. He observes that Krylov looks panicked and flailing in recent fights, while Bukauskas has been improving, becoming more composed and taking opportunities. Connor believes Bukauskas's accuracy and incidental power could lead to a knockout, especially given Krylov's compromised durability.
Daniel Vreeland picks Modestas Bukauskas to win by knockout. He notes that Krylov has lost two straight by first-round KO and appears washed, while Bukauskas is on a hot streak and brimming with confidence. Vreeland believes Bukauskas is catching Krylov at the perfect time and will get the biggest win of his career.
James picks Krylov as an underdog, believing the line is too wide due to recency bias. He notes Krylov's superior skill set and grappling, and that Bukauskas has struggled with grappling. He also mentions inside info that Bukauskas's training camp has been disrupted. However, he acknowledges Krylov's chin might be shot.
The host picks Bukauskas by knockout, believing his improved striking and defensive grappling will nullify Krylov's takedowns. He notes Krylov is on a two-fight losing streak and may be desperate, but Bukauskas's recent form and training with top heavyweights give him the edge. He loves the -140 line but has slight pause due to Bukauskas's past bonehead mistakes.
Paul leans toward Modestas Bukauskas, citing Krylov's recent durability issues and poor form. He notes Bukauskas is a generalist who can outwork Krylov, especially if the fight goes past the first round. Paul is hesitant due to Bukauskas's wrestling vulnerability but believes Krylov's decline is real.
The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Nikita Krylov's charging style and chin. He notes Bukauskas's growing confidence and counter-striking ability, predicting a KO in round two after an initial scrap.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Krylov's chin is gone and he looks like he's swimming out there. He notes that Bukauskas is peaking at 31 and has become more accurate and composed. Zane also comments on Krylov's lack of confidence and panicked starts, which Bukauskas can exploit.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 29 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 30 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 29 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 30 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 22 of 36 | 61% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 19 |
| Paul Craig | 6 of 14 | 42% | 0 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 22 of 36 | 61% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 19 |
| Paul Craig | 6 of 14 | 42% | 0 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-350); Craig (+280)
Round 1
The “featured fight of the night” slot is now occupied by a light heavyweight car crash in the form of Lithuania’s Bukauskas (18-6, 5-4 UFC) against “Bearjew” Craig (17-9-1, 1 NC; 9-9-1, 1 NC UFC). While Bukauskas celebrates a stoppage rate over 70%, Craig has still never needed the judges to get his hand raised after all these years. Referee Marc Goddard will keep things on the up-and-up here, and he stands back as the athletes come towards one another without touching gloves.
Bukauskas is able to get his hands on Craig early, scoring at the end of a left hand. Craig bounces off the fencing, and Bukauskas smacks him with a low kick. Craig whiffs on a high kick, and his calf is struck once more in response. Bukauskas charges with a flurry of punches and results in a clinch, which is where Craig would prefer to be. Bukauskas lands a few short clinch strikes, and he backs off and avoids a looping hook in time. Bukauskas goes back to his calf kick, with the two trading this particular blow until Craig spins at him with a back kick. Bukauskas skips forward to ding Craig with an overhand right, and he is driven back from a spinning kick to the ribs.
They land leg kicks on one another, and Bukauskas blocks a kick in time and is reminded of a past loss to Khalil Rountree when Craig stomps at his knee. Craig gets hold of Bukauskas and pushes him from one side of the Octagon to the other. Craig looks to trip Bukauskas up, and he tries to muscle his man down but Bukauskas is able to keep upright. Craig laces his leg between his foe’s, and he abandons the effort to knee the body a few times. Bukauskas turns him about and plants knees on his torso. Craig jumps guard, and he slides off Bukauskas and hits the ground. Bukauskas lets him hit the floor so he can rain down punches, and he elects to get into Craig’s guard. Bukauskas drums his opponent’s head off the canvas with his devastating ground-and-pound.
Craig turns to defend the strikes, and Bukauskas postures up and demolishes him with one of the most destructive elbows one could ever see or hear. The horn sounds, and Craig lifelessly slumps to his side. Goddard recognizes that Craig is out cold and waves the fight off as five minutes had elapsed.
Luckily for “Bearjew,” he is able to come to shortly thereafter, and he congratulates Bukauskas for sending him astral traveling. While Bukauskas celebrates his handiwork and calls for a top-15 opponent, Craig removes his gloves to signal his retirement, thanking everyone for the memories while noting that the young eat the old in this sport.
The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Paul Craig R1 5:00 via KO (Elbow)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas confidently, citing his versatile striking, takedown defense, and power. He believes Bukauskas will chop down Craig's legs and avoid his submission threats. He notes Craig's poor takedown entries and mediocre striking. He was swayed by Bukauskas' hype video showing his comeback.
Big Brady picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's recent point-fighting style. He believes Bukauskas can outstrike Craig from the outside and avoid his guard. He expects a boring decision win for Bukauskas, as Craig no longer wrestles or pulls guard effectively.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Bukauskas. He notes that Paul Craig is vulnerable everywhere—standing, on his back, and even on top—and that Bukauskas is a solid fighter who can win without engaging on the ground. He emphasizes that Craig's fragility makes him likely to get hurt in exchanges.
The host believes Bukauskas can utilize his striking advantage to keep Craig at bay, touch him up from distance, and avoid overextending to prevent takedowns. He expects Bukauskas to win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's lack of improvement in standup over a decade. He believes Bukauskas' pressure and straight rights will catch Craig early. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Bukauskas' ability to cut off the cage and land devastating shots.
Zane picks Bukauskas easily, noting that Paul Craig's striking is a mess and his takedown accuracy is poor. He believes Bukauskas can keep the fight standing and hurt Craig, or take him down and control him without getting submitted. He calls the fight unnecessary but sees Bukauskas as a solid functional fighter who should win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 44 of 92 | 47% | 52 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 0 | 58 of 130 | 44% | 121 of 194 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 0 | 17 of 46 | 36% | 17 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 50 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 22 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 54 of 74 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 44 of 92 | 47% | 37 of 85 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 42 of 90 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 58 of 130 | 44% | 18 of 74 | 16 of 19 | 24 of 37 | 47 of 117 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 12 of 34 | 35% | 7 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 17 of 46 | 36% | 4 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 16 | 17 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 16 of 32 | 50% | 15 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 25 of 49 | 51% | 11 of 30 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 13 | 20 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 16 of 26 | 61% | 15 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 16 of 35 | 45% | 3 of 18 | 8 of 9 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-112), Cutelaba (-108)
Round 1
Keeping to the light heavyweight division, there is a very realistic scenario that both men will hold .500 records in the Octagon if one man prevails. Bukauskas (17-6, 5-4 UFC) has done his absolute best to make up for an early rough stretch, while “The Hulk” Cutelaba (19-10-1, 1 NC; 8-9-1 UFC) is aiming to smash his way back to that midpoint range. Both men vastly prefer the knockout, but they have also sustained multiple stoppage losses of that type in the past as well. Referee Dan Miragliotta dons his proverbial hard hat as the 31-year-olds do not bother to touch gloves. Bukauskas leads off with a long, leaping jab. Cutelaba kicks him back in the front leg, doing so one more time when Bukauskas changes stances. Cutelaba keeps at it until Bukauskas fires one back at him, and it does not slow him for long. Cutelaba turns his hips into an especially heavy calf kick, and he leans back as a one-two comes up just short of his face. Bukauskas is unable to reach his foe with punches, while Cutelaba kicks him at will. Bukauskas steps in and catches Cutelaba with a left hand, and he follows with a right that “The Hulk” takes on the chin without batting an eye. Cutelaba fires back with an overhand right, and he offers a body kick and spins with a wheel kick that both bounce off the guard. Cutelaba catches Bukauskas at the end of a calf kick, and he parries a body kick and blocks a subsequent head kick. Bukauskas snaps out a jab, and he sways to avoid the worst of an overhand right. Cutelaba does not falter kicking the front leg time and time again, and they clash together with hooks that partially land. Cutelaba has a massive uppercut and right hand knock out the air around the Lithuanian, and he plants his legs and pounds on Bukauskas’ from leg. Bukauskas gets off a two-punch combo and rushes back knowing “The Hulk” is coming after him. Bukauskas chains together two one-twos that catch the Moldovan on the chin, and once more, he no-sells them and walks forward. They both miss with spinning back kicks to the body, and Cutelaba tries to corner Bukauskas with a low kick and times a left hand when Bukauskas advances. Cutelaba plants his heel on Bukauskas’ side with a spin kick, and Bukauskas tries to do something similar but cannot score it. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba
Round 2
The second round opens up with Cutelaba pressing forward, landing a few punches and mixing in kicks. The Moldovan follows the success with another blitz, backing his opponent up and drilling Bukauskas with a right hand. They crash together, and Cutelaba spins with an elbow that bangs into Bukauskas’ jaw. It is Cutelaba who goes flying after the blow lands, because he spun himself off-balance, and he recovers quickly. Cutelaba considers a level change, and he runs into a stone wall that he pushes against the fence. Cutelaba grinds his man against the fencing, offering a knee or two but otherwise stalling out. They jockey for position when in the clinch, and Miragliotta separates them. Cutelaba spins with a wheel kick out of nowhere, and both men trip and nearly go down without the strike connecting. They get back to their feet, and Cutelaba chases his man with an overhand right. When he pitches a naked leg kick, Bukauskas counters with two punches. Cutelaba sits down on a hard right hand, and Bukauskas has to blink it out but is otherwise unconcerned. Cutelaba keeps his guard up, and he rushes forward and lands a couple punches and a kick at the end. Cutelaba offers a leg kick and ducks down to fire off a right hand when he sees Bukauskas coming forward, and he throws a wheel kick so hard that he falls over when it is way out of range. Cutelaba stands, and he initiates a brawl. Bukauskas catches him and nearly gets blasted, having to circle around to regain his footing. One final brawl ensues, with Bukauskas getting the better of the final exchange before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba
Round 3
Cutelaba is energized to start off the final frame, pushing forward immediately but not able to catch Bukauskas standing still. He settles for a few chopping calf kicks, and he shoots in for a double from afar that Bukauskas is able to defend thanks to the wall behind him. The clinch position stalls the two 205ers out, who trade occasional knees but do little more to satisfy Miragliotta. They are separated, and Cutelaba is the aggressor again. Clipping Bukauskas with a left hand, Cutelaba keeps marching forward and lashes out with a low kick that scores, and a spinning back kick that bangs into his foe’s midsection. Cutelaba stomps out with a kick to the front knee, and Bukauskas is tired of waiting and lays into “The Hulk” with a massive right hand. Cutelaba does not so much as flinch, and eats another huge punch that he once more shrugs off. Cutelaba follows his foe around the cage, and he skims a spin kick off the body and reaches at the end of a right hand. Bukauskas goes high with a kick that is blocked, and he stings Cutelaba with a check hook and forces the Moldovan to shoot in on his hips. Bukauskas stops the takedown but is otherwise pushed to the wire, where they spin one another around. They give one another knees to the guts, and Cutelaba goes for a trip that is unable to get his man down. Bukauskas pushes off and lets his hands go, only for Cutelaba to tie him back up. Miragliotta calls for action as Bukauskas leans on his opponent, and he breaks and spins with an elbow. Cutelaba busts him in the chops with a right hand, and swings for the bleachers with a few more. The final strike of the fight is a spinning kick from the Lithuanian to the midsection, and a slightly bloodied Cutelaba raises his hands to signal he thinks he won the fight. Time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Cutelaba)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Cutelaba)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Cutelaba)
The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Ion Cutelaba via Split Decision (27-30, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas as the more technically sound and well-rounded fighter, but acknowledges Ion Cuțelaba is unpredictable and dangerous. He notes Cuțelaba has power and offensive takedowns but no takedown defense. Angelo mentions a potential bet on Cuțelaba inside the distance with decision no action, but his pick is Bukauskas. He emphasizes that picks are not bets and he wouldn't bet on Bukauskas.
Big Brady thinks Cuțelaba has multiple paths to victory: he hits harder, is more durable, and can mix in wrestling. He notes Bukauskas is chinny, hittable, and has poor takedown defense. He believes Cuțelaba's losses have come against high-level or dangerous opponents, while Bukauskas is neither. He predicts Cuțelaba wins by decision, landing bigger shots and mixing in wrestling.
The host believes Bukauskas is in the best form of his career and will thwart Cuțelaba's power striking and grappling. He expects Bukauskas to use his cardio, technical striking, and improved grappling to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Cuțelaba as a slight underdog, citing Bukauskas' knee injury and susceptibility to pressure. He thinks Cuțelaba's wrestling and early aggression will exploit Bukauskas' compromised leg, leading to a finish in the first or second round by TKO or submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 1 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Raffael Cerqueira | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 1 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Raffael Cerqueira | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 16 of 41 | 39% | 11 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Raffael Cerqueira | 9 of 22 | 40% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 16 of 41 | 39% | 11 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Raffael Cerqueira | 9 of 22 | 40% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The UFC treks to Seattle for the first time since 2013, when flyweight king Demetrious Johnson put his belt on the line against John Moraga. The sport never stops moving, and none of the 24 fighters on the lineup of that event will be competing tonight at UFC Fight Night 252. The matchmakers put together a show that even with a ton of injuries and changeups, it has the potential to be hot fire, just like Dylan. A pair of light heavyweight sluggers grace the cage first, and with 22 finishes across their 27 combined wins, referee Jeff Hoiby is already hyper-focused on what’s about to happen next. With a fresh look at the division after leaving the company for a pair of fights, Bukauskas (16-6, 4-4 UFC) has fared better his second time around. On the other hand, Cerqueira (11-1, 0-1 UFC) introduced himself to the masses in October and had his block knocked off by a man in Ibo Aslan who will be competing later. It’s likely knock out or be knocked out, but before they try for that, the fighters bump fists. Bukauskas introduces himself with an axe kick of all strikes, and the Brazilian is well away from him as he watches it go wide. Bukauskas walks his man down and busts him in the chops with a right hand and a left, and Cerqueira bounces off the cage wall and sets up a body kick. Bukauskas reaches with a long right hand, and he paws out with a front kick and a low kick. Cerqueira strikes back at the lead leg, but he leaves himself over for an overhand right that skims the forward bow. Bukauskas turns his hips into a low kick, and this time it is him who is wide-open for a one-two down the pipe. Bukauskas targets the pectoral with a right hand, only to get his chin checked with another clean one-two. Cerqueira loads up on a power punch and gets the attention of “The Baltic Gladiator,” but he also gets tagged on the way out. Bukauskas strides forward, fired up and ready to go, and he unleashes a flurry of fists that crash into the chin of “The Lion.” Cerqueira’s eyes go wide as he is surprised he got clipped, and he backs towards the wall in hopes of getting his balance.
This is the worst thing he can do, as he leans back and has his chin straight up in the air. Bukauskas does not let his man off the hook, blasting him in the face with powerful punches that shake the Brazilian up and separate him from his senses. Cerqueira crumbles to the floor, lights on but no one is home, and Hoiby rushes in to stop the fight.
The victorious Lithuanian walks off triumphantly and hits a picture-perfect back flip to further wow the masses. That is one heck of a way to start the night, as the crowd goes wild.
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The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Raffael Cerqueira R1 2:12 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Bukauskas but is hesitant because he sees Cerqueira as dangerous and unproven. He notes Bukauskas has been knocked out four times and had trouble with Marcin Prachnio, while Cerqueira has 10 stoppages in 11 wins but was knocked out in his UFC debut. He says there's no world where he bets on Bukauskas at -350 and will leave this fight alone.
Big Brady picks Raffael Cerqueira despite being a complete unknown with only two fights available to watch. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas is low-volume, lacks power, and has never looked like a -310 favorite against anyone. He believes Cerqueira has a significant advantage on the ground as a BJJ black belt training with Guto Almeida, and that Bukauskas's technical striking advantage is negated by his low output. He calls this a '100% gambler fight' and picks Cerqueira by knockout, though he admits the fight is awful.
The host believes the line is too wide but expects Bukauskas's striking style to shut down Cerqueira's BJJ and Muay Thai. He predicts Bukauskas will chip away and win on the scorecards.
The Guru dismisses Raffael Cerqueira after his poor debut where he covered up and accepted defeat. He believes Bukauskas is more technical, matches in size and athleticism, and is a real fighter. He refuses to pick Cerqueira again, calling him a non-fighter who fought weak regional competition.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 38 of 76 | 50% | 56 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 5:31 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 70 of 139 | 50% | 120 of 200 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 35 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 21 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 34 of 58 | 58% | 67 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 16 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 38 of 76 | 50% | 28 of 64 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 62 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 7 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 70 of 139 | 50% | 19 of 74 | 31 of 44 | 20 of 21 | 58 of 123 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 19 of 39 | 48% | 12 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 26 of 61 | 42% | 2 of 29 | 10 of 17 | 14 of 15 | 25 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 17 of 31 | 54% | 14 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 34 of 58 | 58% | 8 of 26 | 20 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 44 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 10 of 20 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-155), Prachnio (+130)
Round 1
When the dust settles between these light heavyweights, one of them will reach the .500 mark on their UFC ledger while the other will fall two wins beneath it. Bukauskas (15-6, 3-4 UFC) is trying to build up his resume on his second stint with the promotion, while Prachnio (17-7, 4-5 UFC) wants to disappoint home fans by beating the fighter training in England. With similar finish rates of 73% and 71%, respectively, they might need to involve referee Marc Goddard before the final horn. The 205ers touch ‘em up, and Prachnio introduces himself with a trio of leg kicks. Bukauskas swings back with a looping right hand, but his foe is out of range. Prachnio sweeps the leg, or at least tries to, but his second kick nearly buckles Bukauskas’ knee on the inside. Bukauskas times a hard left hand when Prachnio sells out on a low kick, and he leans back to watch a side kick to the face come up short. Prachnio continues working the front leg no matter the stance, and he pushes off to disallow Bukauskas from reaching him with two hooks. Bukauskas sits down on a left hand, getting Prachnio’s attention, and Prachnio gathers himself and keeps on chopping down the tree. Bukauskas loops a left around the guard, and he kicks a ducking Prachnio in the face. They clash together, and Prachnio stumbles before recovering. Prachnio tries to land a spinning wheel kick that ends up bouncing off the guard, and he peppers the front leg and thigh with kicks. Prachnio winds up and drills Bukauskas with a massive right hand, and Bukauskas eats it like a bowl of kugelis. Prachnio races forward throwing a kick, and Bukauskas grabs hold of him and turns him to the fencing. On the break, the Lithuanian dings Prachnio with a spinning elbow, but Prachnio appears unconcerned. Bukauskas races forward throwing hands, and a right hand careens off the temple and wobbles Prachnio. Bukauskas unleashes a salvo of vicious punches, but Prachnio is able to rebound off the fenced and get his footing. Prachnio chips at the front leg, and he lumbers forward throwing inaccurate punches. Bukauskas switches stances frequently, and he beans Prachnio with a huge right hand. Prachnio goes after another spinning wheel kick that is a long way away, and Bukauskas stays composed until he throws a bit too hard, and gets caught with a counter on the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Round 2
The two touch gloves and go right into a brawl, winging power hooks with no concern of defense. They backpedal momentarily, and Prachnio scores a leg kick and connects with an overhand right. Prachnio kicks low a few times before going high, and Bukauskas blocks the head kick but eats a body kick that follows. Prachnio gets into range and is met with a pair of hooks, and he takes a few steps back to kick the front leg. Prachnio lunges and gets countered, but he ends with a body kick. The low kicks of the Polish fighter are starting to compromise Bukauskas, but Prachnio decides to throw caution to the wind and whiff with a comical windmilling right hand that is feet off the mark. Prachnio takes a moment to stop fighting so recklessly, and Bukauskas uses the moment to belt Prachnio with a handful of punches that rock Prachnio. In the ensuing melee, Bukauskas absorbs a flush head kick in close range and gets his bell rung, and he has no choice but to back off as he was in trouble too. Both fighters wobbled and hurt, they end up clinching, with Bukauskas pressing Prachnio against the wire. Bukauskas drops to his knees for a takedown, and Prachnio stands him up and knees him in the gut to break. Prachnio doubles up on the knee when he gets in close, and Bukauskas backs off and smacks him with a left hand. A body lock takedown from Bukauskas succeeds in planting Prachnio on his back, and Prachnio grabs hold of the fence for several seconds and does not let it go as Goddard watches on without saying anything. Bukauskas moves to half guard, and Prachnio lets go so he can block his face but ultimately takes several elbows off the dome. Bukauskas walks right into side control and threatens briefly with a kimura, but lets it go so he can knee Prachnio in the side and elbow him as well. Prachnio briefly drags Bukauskas back to his guard, but Bukauskas easily gest back to half guard. Prachnio wall-walks to get back up, and they dirty box in the clinch until the violent round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prachnio
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Round 3
Gloves are touched, and fists immediately fly. Prachnio elects to go out swinging, and he pummels the Lithuanian with a flurry of fierce punches that knock him back to the fencing. Bukauskas takes advantage of Prachnio’s momentum and hits a body lock trip to redeposit Prachnio flat on his back. Bukauskas moves to half guard to control his opponent, and he lands short shots to stay busy. Goddard warns Prachnio for punches that wrap around to the back of the head, and Bukauskas ignores them while maintaining controlling posture. Goddard asks for more work, and Bukauskas keeps on slowly working from above while not attempting many fight-ending strikes.
Bukauskas sits up to drive two elbows home before leaning down with an arm-triangle choke position. Bukauskas lowers himself flat to smother his opponent while clutching the submission grip tight, and he is on the wrong side but does not seem to care. Bukauskas remains flat and crushes down on his adversary, and even out of position he squeezes with all his might. Prachnio cannot hang on any longer, and he taps out.
Prachnio thinks about standing up after the fight's conclusion, but he does not have the energy to do it. Meanwhile, the victorious Lithuanian hits a back flip to show he still has something left in the tank.
The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Marcin Prachnio R3 3:12 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, citing his youth and well-roundedness. He notes that Prachnio has power but is chinny and can be knockout or bust. Angelo expects Bukauskas to win and hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line to bet on.
Cody picks Marcin Prachnio, citing his volume striking and improved cardio. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas has low output and has looked unimpressive in his UFC return, with close fights against lower-level competition. Cody believes Prachnio's pressure and output will overwhelm Bukauskas, and that he can win by decision or even knockout.
Daniel thinks Marcin Prachnio has a higher work rate and will outwork Modestas Bukauskas. He notes both have poor chins but Prachnio pushes a higher pace. He picks the underdog Prachnio.
Paul leans towards Prachnio, noting that Bukauskas has low volume and no real power. He believes Prachnio's volume advantage (5.61 significant strikes per minute vs 3.28) will be key, and that the fight likely goes to a decision where Prachnio edges it. However, he is not fully confident and may pass on betting.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio as an underdog, citing Prachnio's better technical striking and leg-kicking ability. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas lacks finishing potential and a strong grappling game, often letting fights go to split decisions. Prachnio is known for chewing up opponents' legs, and Bukauskas has a history of leg injuries. The Guru also questions Bukauskas's training camp with heavyweights, suggesting it may not be ideal for this matchup.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 1 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 14 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 6 of 21 | 28% | 12 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 1 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 8 of 26 | 30% | 6 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 9 of 19 | 47% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 6 of 21 | 28% | 4 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Petrino (-218), Bukauskas (+180)
Round 1
The second of three undefeated Brazilians on the card takes center stage next, as Petrino (9-0, 2-0 UFC) aims to pick up his 10th win as a pro at the expense of Bukauskas (15-5, 3-3 UFC). Fists and feet are sure to fly shortly between these two light heavyweights, but before they do, referee Marc Goddard has to clock them in. A brief tap of the gloves leads to a faked kick from Bukauskas, who looks for his range and manages to plant his shin on Petrino’s calf early. Bukauskas fires off a head kick to follow, and Petrino’s guard is up well in time to defend. Bukauskas comes up short with another high kick, and he parries a jab and whiffs with a low kick. Bukauskas protects his face from an oncoming head kick, and he pokes at the lead calf. Petrino paws out a jab and absorbs a thumping calf kick, and he tosses another high kick that does not find its target. Jabs are attempted from both sides, and Bukauskas reaches out with a left hook and blocks a kick aimed at his temple. Petrino doubles up on a jab and fires off a left hook that grazes the hair, and they reset with a jab from both men. Petrino sneaks in a jab, and he takes a calf kick and attempts a takedown. When he trips Bukauskas up, the Brazilian elects to lift Bukauskas in the air and slam him down with a powerbomb seen in the professional wrestling circuits. When Bukauskas looks to scramble, Petrino continues maintaining top position while shifting into half guard. Bukauskas defends himself from any ground-and-pound by hanging onto Petrino’s forearms, and the subsequent inactivity prompts Goddard to issue a warning. Petrino scores a pair of punches, and Bukauskas bucks off and starts striking back. A few more short punches from Petrino end the low-paced frame.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
Round 2
The light heavyweights touch gloves, and Goddard steps in 15 seconds into the round to command that Bukauskas get his mouthpiece replaced, and that the commission get it together. When they resume after the awkward pause, both men go for big strikes, and they partially connect.
Bukauskas looks to settle down with a jab, and as soon as he sits down on it, Petrino slides to the side and uncorks a short but lethal left hook that completely flatlines Bukauskas. The back of Bukauskas’ head clatters off the floor as his eyes roll back, and an attentive Goddard leaps in before Petrino can clobber him with any additional strikes.
Bukauskas tries to get back to his feet and motion that he was just flash knocked down, but he needs help standing up as commission and medical officials rush to his aid. This is a massive victory for the still-undefeated Petrino, who has performed finishes in eight of his 10 pro wins to date.
The Official Result
Vitor Petrino def. Modestas Bukauskas R2 1:03 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Petrino but is not super confident. He notes Petrino is dangerous with power and athleticism, but can be sloppy and dropped. Bukauskas is a good striker with decent takedown defense. Angelo thinks Petrino's relentless aggression will win him the fight, but he leaves Petrino out of parlays because Bukauskas could play spoiler at plus money.
Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by knockout in the second round. He criticizes Bukauskas as a boring point fighter and praises Petrino's evolving skillset, including takedowns and cardio. He believes Petrino can win by any method but prefers the knockout. He notes Petrino's physical strength and ability to go 15 minutes.
Daniel Levi picks Vitor Petrino, describing him as a physical freak with one-punch knockout power, strong wrestling, and submission skills. He notes that Petrino is still evolving and should be able to steamroll Bukauskas. Levi points out Bukauskas' poor striking defense, with his chin often in the air, and his history of being knocked out. He sees Bukauskas as a low-volume kickboxer who can be overwhelmed. Levi expects Petrino to finish the fight, possibly in the second round.
James is quite confident in Petrino, stating he has all the upside in every aspect of the fight: knockout, submission, and decision. He believes Petrino deserves to be a big favorite and that Bukauskas' only path to victory is if Petrino gasses or if it becomes a low-volume point striking affair, which he does not see happening. He does not specify a method of victory but is confident Petrino gets the win.
Petrino has shown a solid gas tank for light heavyweight and is working on his jiu-jitsu, as seen in his last fight. He has speed, power, and explosiveness that will trouble Bukauskas. Petrino can either knock him out or use his grappling advantage to take him down and grind him out. The -200 range is a good spot to jump in.
The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas as an underdog over Vitor Petrino. He highlights Bukauskas' experience and reach advantage, and notes his impressive performance against Tyson Pedro on short notice. The Guru believes Bukauskas is underrated and that Petrino may struggle with the reach and stand-up. He also mentions Bukauskas was arguably robbed against Marcin Prachnio. The Guru likes Bukauskas' odds.
Expert Picks (10)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, trusting his takedown defense and power. He thinks Nikita Krylov is the better overall fighter but has a weak chin, and Bukauskas only needs one clean shot. He warns Bukauskas not to engage in grappling like he did against Paul Craig.
Big Brady thinks Krylov is washed, citing his age (33 but 41 fights), long layoff, and two recent KO losses where he looked old and hesitant. He notes Krylov has stopped grappling, which was his best attribute. Bukauskas has been improving, and Brady expects him to knock out Krylov in the second round.
Cody confidently picks Bukauskas, arguing that Krylov is washed after a two-year layoff and two first-round KO losses. He notes Bukauskas's defensive wrestling and cardio should allow him to survive the first round and take over. Cody believes Bukauskas's ring generalship and durability will be enough to edge out a win.
Connor is sad about Krylov's decline, noting his chin is gone after two consecutive knockouts. He observes that Krylov looks panicked and flailing in recent fights, while Bukauskas has been improving, becoming more composed and taking opportunities. Connor believes Bukauskas's accuracy and incidental power could lead to a knockout, especially given Krylov's compromised durability.
Daniel Vreeland picks Modestas Bukauskas to win by knockout. He notes that Krylov has lost two straight by first-round KO and appears washed, while Bukauskas is on a hot streak and brimming with confidence. Vreeland believes Bukauskas is catching Krylov at the perfect time and will get the biggest win of his career.
James picks Krylov as an underdog, believing the line is too wide due to recency bias. He notes Krylov's superior skill set and grappling, and that Bukauskas has struggled with grappling. He also mentions inside info that Bukauskas's training camp has been disrupted. However, he acknowledges Krylov's chin might be shot.
The host picks Bukauskas by knockout, believing his improved striking and defensive grappling will nullify Krylov's takedowns. He notes Krylov is on a two-fight losing streak and may be desperate, but Bukauskas's recent form and training with top heavyweights give him the edge. He loves the -140 line but has slight pause due to Bukauskas's past bonehead mistakes.
Paul leans toward Modestas Bukauskas, citing Krylov's recent durability issues and poor form. He notes Bukauskas is a generalist who can outwork Krylov, especially if the fight goes past the first round. Paul is hesitant due to Bukauskas's wrestling vulnerability but believes Krylov's decline is real.
The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Nikita Krylov's charging style and chin. He notes Bukauskas's growing confidence and counter-striking ability, predicting a KO in round two after an initial scrap.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Krylov's chin is gone and he looks like he's swimming out there. He notes that Bukauskas is peaking at 31 and has become more accurate and composed. Zane also comments on Krylov's lack of confidence and panicked starts, which Bukauskas can exploit.
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