Career Averages - Carli Judice
Career Averages - Juliana Miller
Carli Judice - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 0 | 36 of 122 | 29% | 46 of 138 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 1 | 0 | 3:38 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 79 of 185 | 42% | 104 of 214 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 15 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 37 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 0 | 17 of 58 | 29% | 18 of 61 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 35 of 89 | 39% | 36 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 0 | 9 of 39 | 23% | 13 of 45 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 31 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 36 of 122 | 29% | 24 of 100 | 11 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 29 of 109 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 79 of 185 | 42% | 53 of 143 | 20 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 75 of 180 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 10 of 25 | 40% | 6 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 18 of 40 | 45% | 11 of 29 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 17 of 58 | 29% | 12 of 50 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 53 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 35 of 89 | 39% | 26 of 72 | 8 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 35 of 88 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 9 of 39 | 23% | 6 of 31 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 26 of 56 | 46% | 16 of 42 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Carli Judice, citing her superior striking, good volume, and takedown defense. He notes Juliana Miller has heart but lacks skill and hasn't improved. He mentions a potential prop bet on Miller plus 3.5 if she wins a round, but his clear pick is Judice.
Big Brady picks Carli Judice to defeat Juliana Miller, calling it a 'sanctioned murder.' He notes Miller has terrible striking defense (36%) and was pieced up by Luana Santos, who is not a good striker. He believes Judice is physically strong, has good takedown defense, and superior striking with phenomenal volume. He predicts a first-round knockout, possibly by head kick or knee, and thinks it could be a mercy stoppage.
Cody thinks Judice's striking and athleticism will be too much for Miller. He notes Miller's poor wrestling and linear movement. He expects Judice to win by decision or TKO.
Connor picks Judice, comparing her technical footwork to Duane Ludwig. He notes she shifts to cut angles and outmaneuver opponents, which has improved since her debut. Miller is tough but can't strike or wrestle, and Judice will easily outclass her.
James picks Carli Judice to win by knockout, citing her massive striking advantage over Miller. He notes that Miller is multiple levels below Judice on the feet and that her only hope is grappling, which Judice has defended well. James expects Judice to land a TKO.
Judice is a talented striker with good takedown defense, as shown in her recent wins. She should be able to keep the fight standing and pick apart Miller, who is mediocre on the feet. Miller will try to grapple, but Judice has improved her grappling defense and should get back to her feet. Expect a TKO in the second or third round as Miller fades.
Paul agrees, citing Judice's improvement and Miller's lack of wrestling. He thinks Miller's only path is takedowns, but Judice's striking will be too much. He expects Judice to win comfortably.
The MMA Guru believes Carli Judice is a much more technical fighter with a significant striking advantage over Juliana Miller. He notes that Judice arguably won her Contender Series fight and her UFC debut, and has since finished her last two opponents via TKO. He expects Judice to break Miller down with body work, specifically knees, front kicks, and teeps, leading to a second or third round TKO.
Zane picks Judice emphatically, noting she has improved dramatically as a technician, especially her footwork. She runs circles around opponents and negates power disadvantages. Miller can't strike or wrestle, and Judice will tear her apart. Zane expects Judice to style on Miller.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 1 | 109 of 225 | 48% | 117 of 235 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 32 of 101 | 31% | 35 of 104 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 0 | 38 of 78 | 48% | 44 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 13 of 42 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 0 | 47 of 108 | 43% | 49 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 16 of 51 | 31% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 1 | 24 of 39 | 61% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 109 of 225 | 48% | 85 of 193 | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 96 of 210 | 10 of 12 | 3 of 3 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 32 of 101 | 31% | 26 of 85 | 3 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 30 of 98 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 38 of 78 | 48% | 26 of 62 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 70 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 11 of 40 | 27% | 8 of 32 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 47 of 108 | 43% | 41 of 101 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 107 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 16 of 51 | 31% | 13 of 44 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 24 of 39 | 61% | 18 of 30 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Judice (-278), Caliari (+225)
Round 1
It’s time for another pay-per-view, this time with no divisional belt on top. While there may be a “BMF Title” exchange at night’s end, the promotion has already shown that it can be taken and bestowed to any match that needs a marketing boost. Additionally, its holder does not surrender it on a loss like a linear belt, making it a shiny, expensive trophy that tends to involve a celebrity draping it around the victor. That celebrity tonight will likely be Lil Wayne. Before all that, we have a bakers’ dozen matchups to plow through. Flyweights will be first to the cage, as head kick aficionado Judice (4-2, 1-1 UFC), who trains out of Headkicks MMA, battles Brazil’s Caliari (8-3, 0-1 UFC). The ladies will receive oversight from referee Bassel Mahgoub to start things off, and they bump gloves to seal the cage around them.
Caliari gets right to business, chasing after “Crispy” with a combination of punches and ending it with a head kick. She pitches a similar flurry when Judice backpedals to defend herself. Judice parries the worst of the attacks and jabs out with her lead fist and front kick. Caliari crashes forward with a left hand, and Judice responds with a body kick and an overhand left. Judice splits the guard with a second punch, and she steps in to stun Caliari with a knee. Caliari responds with a tackling takedown, dragging the American to her knees for a moment. Judice wall-walks to get upright despite Caliari clinging around her waist from behind, and she fights off a few mat return efforts while leaned on the cage. The fans are quick to express restlessness, letting the flyweights have it with boos until Judice breaks away. When they reset, Judice jams Caliari in the jaw with a sharp knee.
Caliari shakes it off and pursues a half-baked takedown, and Judice stops her subsequent head-and-arm throw to put Caliari on her face. Caliari now is the one having to work to her feet, and Judice frames off by pegging her with elbows and a knee. Caliari takes a few steps back, and Judice gives chase with a front kick and a barrage of fists. Caliari tries to respond with power strikes, reddening up Judice’s nose, but she finds herself dealing with the counters that quickly come. Caliari rushes after a takedown, and Judice slings her to the floor defensively and hovers over her before standing up. Caliari thinks about another, but she is stonewalled and takes jabs on the nose. Justice sticks and moves, walking into a big right hand but giving Caliari a clean left down the middle and following it with a powerful knee. Caliari ties her up, but Judice turns her around and holds her there to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Round 2
The flyweights bop fists to get going, where Judice is quick to fight behind her sharp jab. She targets the damaged right eye of the Brazilian with it, working on it to make it swell more with every blow. Caliari takes a body kick and tries to catch it to get a takedown, but Judice recoils her limb and keeps peppering the face with jabs and quick follow-ups. Judice slips to the left and tags Caliari in the swollen eye socket, and she is rarely missing her strikes while her volume easily triples that of her adversary. Judice is basically engaging in target practice, with Caliari offering little resistance more than a takedown shot. Judice shuts it down quickly and pushes Caliari to the wall, where she knees her in the midsection several times. Caliari races forward for a takedown, and Judice pushes her to the floor before Caliari can even go after a leg.
Caliari stands up and starts swinging, clipping “Crispy” at the end of a left hand. She fires off a low kick, and this draws a combination in response from Judice. Caliari is putting more behind her punches, while Judice is more than happy touching her, pop pop pop and she slides to the side. The thumping sounds that echo through the building are the ferocious knees that Judice is planting on the torso, and Caliari takes them flush without flinching. Judice potshots her swelling foe with ease, ducking the counters and otherwise playing matador when Caliari winds up. Judice fakes a knee and strings together a series of punches, while dancing out of the way of the inevitable counters. Judice lets go with a high kick that is blocked, and her punches fly through the guard and onto the Brazilian’s jaw. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Round 3
There is one last glove touch to commence the final frame, and Caliari is wide-eyed and aware of the oncoming fire that she is about to receive. This allows her to dodge the nastiest of what Judice hurls at her, but the sheer volume from the American makes it difficult to avoid everything. Caliari plants her feet and loops a big left hand at her foe, only for Judice to ignore it and dig a few body shots. Caliari crashes the pocket in pursuit of a takedown, and she manages to ground her foe for a second. Judice explodes to her feet and starts boxing up Caliari. The combinations flow freely from “Crispy,” who is roasting her opponent from punching range. She backs Caliari up to the fencing, practically hitting a 125-pound heavy bag at this point, and
she lines up a knee up the middle. This time, Caliari ducks down for a takedown shot, and the contact is immediate and devastating. For one wild moment, Judice channels her inner Hannibal Lecter, feasting on Caliari’s liver with some fava beans and a nice Chianti. Somewhere in the world, Jason DeLucia screams due to phantom pains from his three encounters against Bas Rutten in years past. Judice has to do little more but drive down two academic hammerfists that make Mahgoub hurry up and stop the fight.
Just like that, Judice has earned her fifth pro victory, with all five of them coming by knockout.
The Official Result
Carli Judice def. Nicolle Caliari R3 1:30 via TKO (Knee to the Body)
Angelo picks Carli Judice as the better striker who will do more damage and try to finish. He notes that Judice can be taken down but scrambles well, while Caliari is a busy grappler who can lose positions by being too aggressive. He also factors in the Louisiana commission, which may value takedowns more, but still favors Judice's striking.
Big Brady favors Carli Judice due to superior striking, higher volume, and better defense. He acknowledges Nicolle Caliari's grappling and black belt but doubts she can get takedowns or outstrike Judice. He predicts Judice cruises to a decision win if she stuffs takedowns.
The host expects Judice to manage distance, utilize volume and output, and pick apart Caliari from distance en route to a decision victory. This suggests a clear confidence in Judice's ability to control the fight and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Carli Judice based on a common opponent comparison with Carrier Kate. He notes that Carrier Kate clearly beat Nicolle Caliari but was robbed by the judges, while Judice arguably beat Carrier Kate on the Contender Series. He also highlights Judice's height and reach advantages (5'7" vs 5'3", 68" vs 62" reach) and believes she will be better at dealing with Caliari's takedowns. He expects Judice to win by decision or TKO, citing her momentum from a headkick KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuneisy Duben | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carli Judice | 1 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuneisy Duben | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carli Judice | 1 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuneisy Duben | 14 of 41 | 34% | 8 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 17 of 43 | 39% | 12 of 34 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuneisy Duben | 14 of 41 | 34% | 8 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 17 of 43 | 39% | 12 of 34 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Judice (-380), Duben (+300)
Round 1
Of all the fight cards the UFC has ever held, UFC Fight Night 254 is certainly one of them. With 10 of the 26 combatants sporting UFC records above .500, this could be one of those shows where the cut list will reach five or more players. We kick things off in the women’s flyweight division with one of those types of matches where a fighter has their back against the wall. Unbeaten Venezuelan Duben (6-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC) may have a bit of a gaudy record, but her first five wins came against ladies with a combined record of 0-0 (and a no contest). Standing in her way with a lot on the line will be Judice (3-2, 0-1 UFC), who earned her spot on the roster with a
loss
on the Contender Series. Fists are soon to fly, and before they do, referee Mark Smith checks them in. There is a quick fist bump that precedes the action. Judice takes to the center of the cage, and Duben walks right towards her and kicks her several times on the lead leg. Judice jabs her way out of an engagement, and she snaps up a question mark kick that surprises her opponent. The Venezuelan plants her feet and throws hands, and when she scores, she circles away. Judice plants her fist on her foe’s face, and she appears more technical than Duben as her strikes are straight while Duben’s are winging and a bit sloppy. Judice cracks Duben with a straight punch combo, and she makes Duben bounce off the fencing. Duben responds with a spinning back fist, and Judice blocks the worst of it and comes out swinging. Duben ricochets off the wall again, and she punches her way out of a tough situation. Judice resets, and she marches the newcomer down and chambers her left leg.
Her shin smashes square into the chin, and Duben goes down on her side in a heap. A few follow-up punches from “Crispy” are merely academic, as Smith is rushing in between them to stop the fight.
This is a heck of a way to start the night, with Duben ejected violently out of the ranks of the unbeaten while Judice concludes her losing streak with a bang. Headkicks MMA is her team, and she represented it well with that performance.
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The Official Result
Carli Judice
def.
Yuneisy Duben
R1 1:40 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Yuneisy Duben over Carli Judice. He acknowledges Judice is technically better but Duben's chaotic aggression and finishing ability sway him. He is concerned about Duben's cardio since she has never gone to a decision. He suggests an under bet as a possibility.
Big Brady picks Carli Judice over Yuneisy Duben. He notes that Duben's level of competition is extremely low, with her opponents having almost no wins combined, and that her only notable win was a huge upset on the Contender Series where she was a +1000 underdog. In contrast, Judice's two UFC losses were competitive against solid fighters like Ernesta Kareckaite and Gabriella Fernandes. Brady believes Judice's volume, cardio, and top game will be too much for Duben, who has never seen a third round. He predicts a second-round TKO finish for Judice.
Cody does not make a clear pick for this fight, as it was added late and not discussed in detail. He mentions the fight briefly but does not give a pick.
Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.
The host believes Judice is the superior striker with better combinations, footwork, and range management. He expects her to set up a trap and knock out Duben within two rounds.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight, as it was added late and not discussed in detail. He mentions the fight briefly but does not give a pick.
The MMA Guru picks Yuneisy Duben as an underdog, citing her undefeated record (6-0), training with Rosam Unas and Miranda Maverick, and her power to knock people out. He notes Carli Judice is rangy but lacks power in her punches, comparing her striking to early Yan Xiaonan but not at that level. He also mentions Duben's nasty KO win on the Contender Series and that she was sick three days before that fight, showing resilience. He admits he also picks her because she's attractive, but emphasizes she's well-rounded and dangerous.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 169 of 323 | 52% | 186 of 345 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Carli Judice | 0 | 119 of 234 | 50% | 126 of 245 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 63 of 143 | 44% | 64 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carli Judice | 0 | 43 of 91 | 47% | 44 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 27 of 51 | 52% | 40 of 69 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Carli Judice | 0 | 41 of 67 | 61% | 45 of 73 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 | |
| 3 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 79 of 129 | 61% | 82 of 132 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Carli Judice | 0 | 35 of 76 | 46% | 37 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriella Fernandes | 169 of 323 | 52% | 110 of 251 | 42 of 55 | 17 of 17 | 149 of 297 | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 119 of 234 | 50% | 89 of 198 | 21 of 25 | 9 of 11 | 95 of 200 | 24 of 34 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriella Fernandes | 63 of 143 | 44% | 41 of 114 | 14 of 21 | 8 of 8 | 55 of 133 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 43 of 91 | 47% | 36 of 81 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 34 of 77 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gabriella Fernandes | 27 of 51 | 52% | 19 of 40 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 41 of 67 | 61% | 32 of 58 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 51 | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gabriella Fernandes | 79 of 129 | 61% | 50 of 97 | 22 of 25 | 7 of 7 | 71 of 119 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 35 of 76 | 46% | 21 of 59 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 33 of 72 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gabriella but calls it a razor-thin fight that should be 50/50. He notes Gabriella is a powerful, technical striker but has poor takedown defense, though Carli is not a wrestler. He thinks Carli's volume and forward pressure could be effective, but Gabriella's power and experience should prevail. He advises caution after last week's underdog women wins.
Cody picks Gabriella Fernandes, arguing that she has been matched against wrestlers and spent most of her fights on her back, but against Judice, who is a brawler, she will have a chance to strike. He notes that Fernandes has cleaner striking and more power, while Judice has volume but may tire. Cody expects a competitive fight and thinks Fernandes can win a decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Gabriella Fernandes, noting her physicality and knockout power. He acknowledges her weakness against wrestlers but believes Carli Judice is not a takedown threat. He expects Fernandes to have the bigger moments and win a decision, while Judice may outland in volume but lacks impact.
Jacob picks Gabriella, believing this fight is tailor-made for her as a striker against someone who won't shoot takedowns. He notes Carli showed toughness in her Contender Series fight but is inexperienced. He thinks Gabriella is the cleaner, more powerful striker and should win, though Carli could steal a round.
Fernandes' power, explosiveness, and physicality will be the difference in the striking realm. Both have holes in grappling, but the fight will stay standing and Fernandes will land more damage to get the victory.
Paul picks Judice by default (CF do - 'when in doubt, CF do'), but admits he has no strong opinion. He notes that Judice showed high volume in her Contender Series fight and that Fernandes has not faced a volume striker. However, he is not confident and calls it a pass.
The MMA Guru struggles with this pick, admitting he did research but can't remember details. He notes Carli Judice is younger (25) and has a reach advantage (68 inches vs 66), and that she had a great war on the Contender Series. He mentions Gabriella Fernandes has no takedowns in her career and is 30, but his reasoning is flimsy and he ultimately picks Judice almost arbitrarily.
Juliana Miller - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 0 | 36 of 122 | 29% | 46 of 138 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 1 | 0 | 3:38 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 79 of 185 | 42% | 104 of 214 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 15 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 37 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 0 | 17 of 58 | 29% | 18 of 61 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 35 of 89 | 39% | 36 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 0 | 9 of 39 | 23% | 13 of 45 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 31 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 36 of 122 | 29% | 24 of 100 | 11 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 29 of 109 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 79 of 185 | 42% | 53 of 143 | 20 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 75 of 180 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 10 of 25 | 40% | 6 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 18 of 40 | 45% | 11 of 29 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 17 of 58 | 29% | 12 of 50 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 53 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 35 of 89 | 39% | 26 of 72 | 8 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 35 of 88 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 9 of 39 | 23% | 6 of 31 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 26 of 56 | 46% | 16 of 42 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Carli Judice, citing her superior striking, good volume, and takedown defense. He notes Juliana Miller has heart but lacks skill and hasn't improved. He mentions a potential prop bet on Miller plus 3.5 if she wins a round, but his clear pick is Judice.
Big Brady picks Carli Judice to defeat Juliana Miller, calling it a 'sanctioned murder.' He notes Miller has terrible striking defense (36%) and was pieced up by Luana Santos, who is not a good striker. He believes Judice is physically strong, has good takedown defense, and superior striking with phenomenal volume. He predicts a first-round knockout, possibly by head kick or knee, and thinks it could be a mercy stoppage.
Cody thinks Judice's striking and athleticism will be too much for Miller. He notes Miller's poor wrestling and linear movement. He expects Judice to win by decision or TKO.
Connor picks Judice, comparing her technical footwork to Duane Ludwig. He notes she shifts to cut angles and outmaneuver opponents, which has improved since her debut. Miller is tough but can't strike or wrestle, and Judice will easily outclass her.
James picks Carli Judice to win by knockout, citing her massive striking advantage over Miller. He notes that Miller is multiple levels below Judice on the feet and that her only hope is grappling, which Judice has defended well. James expects Judice to land a TKO.
Judice is a talented striker with good takedown defense, as shown in her recent wins. She should be able to keep the fight standing and pick apart Miller, who is mediocre on the feet. Miller will try to grapple, but Judice has improved her grappling defense and should get back to her feet. Expect a TKO in the second or third round as Miller fades.
Paul agrees, citing Judice's improvement and Miller's lack of wrestling. He thinks Miller's only path is takedowns, but Judice's striking will be too much. He expects Judice to win comfortably.
The MMA Guru believes Carli Judice is a much more technical fighter with a significant striking advantage over Juliana Miller. He notes that Judice arguably won her Contender Series fight and her UFC debut, and has since finished her last two opponents via TKO. He expects Judice to break Miller down with body work, specifically knees, front kicks, and teeps, leading to a second or third round TKO.
Zane picks Judice emphatically, noting she has improved dramatically as a technician, especially her footwork. She runs circles around opponents and negates power disadvantages. Miller can't strike or wrestle, and Judice will tear her apart. Zane expects Judice to style on Miller.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 54 of 101 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 8:10 |
| Ivana Petrović | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 57 of 87 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juliana Miller | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Ivana Petrović | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 32 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 | |
| 2 | Juliana Miller | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 24 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
| Ivana Petrović | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 3 | Juliana Miller | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 19 of 43 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 |
| Ivana Petrović | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 17 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juliana Miller | 22 of 55 | 40% | 11 of 41 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 |
| Ivana Petrović | 25 of 53 | 47% | 8 of 33 | 9 of 12 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juliana Miller | 4 of 12 | 33% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ivana Petrović | 7 of 12 | 58% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Juliana Miller | 4 of 11 | 36% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ivana Petrović | 6 of 15 | 40% | 2 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Juliana Miller | 14 of 32 | 43% | 5 of 21 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Ivana Petrović | 12 of 26 | 46% | 6 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo acknowledges both fighters are low-level and tough, but he expects Ivana Petrović to win because she is more well-rounded and has better grappling. He notes that Juliana Miller is inexperienced and fights on instinct, which often fails her. However, he strongly advises against betting on this fight because the odds are too wide and the outcome is unpredictable.
Big Brady picks Ivana Petrović but is not confident, calling it a fight to stay away from. He notes Petrović has a significant striking advantage by default because Miller's striking defense is terrible (32%). However, he worries that both fighters accept bottom position and are submission over position, making the fight potentially messy. He expects a close competitive decision going to the judges, and he questions Miller's motivation after a long layoff and multiple surgeries.
Miller is coming off a poor performance but that was against Luana Santos, a different style opponent. She has since changed camps to Sik Jitsu and claims to be healthier than ever. I expect her to take Petrović down and grind out a decision win, surprising many.
The MMA Guru picks Ivana Petrović because Juliana Miller is 'absolutely awful' and has no business in the UFC. He notes that while Petrović isn't great either, she is more technical, bigger, and stronger. He expects a 30-27 decision win for Petrović.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Santos | 0 | 24 of 75 | 32% | 25 of 77 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 63 of 105 | 60% | 64 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Santos | 0 | 24 of 75 | 32% | 25 of 77 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 63 of 105 | 60% | 64 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luana Santos | 24 of 75 | 32% | 15 of 61 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 64 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 63 of 105 | 60% | 44 of 82 | 16 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 53 of 88 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luana Santos | 24 of 75 | 32% | 15 of 61 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 64 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 63 of 105 | 60% | 44 of 82 | 16 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 53 of 88 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-155), Miller (+130)
Round 1
Fight fans have now passed the midpoint of what will be the longest stretch of consecutive UFC weekends, and there are only seven to go including UFC on ESPN 51. This will be the last event in the Apex until its streak-ending Sept. 23 show, and it is certainly a fight card. As mentioned in a previous article, 15 of the 26 fighters tonight are coming in having lost their last bouts, and eight of those have dropped two in a row or more. It all starts with grappler-on-grappler action in the women’s flyweight division, as “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 30 victor Miller (3-2, 1-1 UFC) looks to lift her promotional record above .500. She takes on promotional newcomer Santos (5-1, 0-0 UFC), who made her way to the UFC not through the Contender Series or any of the other feeder programs, but from the LFA. This opening bout draws the assignment of referee Jason Herzog, and it begins without a touch of gloves as Miller charges like a bull. The two ladies immediately start swinging, and Miller snaps the head back with a few heavy blows. Miller’s aggression leads her into a clinch, where she immediately presses onto her opponent while kneeing her in the gut. Santos turns the corner and splits apart, and she resets. Miller walks her down, stutter-stepping her way in and throwing hammers. Santos sits down on a right hand to catch her on the way in, but Miller completely ignores it and keeps on storming forward. Miller puts her hands on Santos’ face, not landing with any individually damaging blow, but getting Santos’ attention. The Brazilian woman steels herself and launches a bomb of a right hand that bangs right into Miller’s temple, rocking “Killer.” Santos does not let her foe off the hook, as she slugs away and even mixes in a head kick as Miller leans her back to the wall to stay upright. Miller leans forward to try to slow things down, and Santos snatches up a guillotine choke that ends up with the two ladies landing on the mat. Santos releases her grip to allow them back to their feet, and she stays right in Miller’s grill throwing hands. Santos belts her foe in the jaw a few times, and Miller wobbles back to the wall and tries to counter but is only flailing. Santos smashes Miller in the face, and Miller reels and is in big trouble. Santos pours it on with fists flying, and she connects repeatedly and does not care about anything Miller gives back to her. Herzog is taking a close eye on the action, and Santos tries to force a stoppage by laying into Miller with everything she has.
The punches keep coming, and Miller drops to a knee and fights her way back up. Miller may be out on her feet, and Santos continues busting her in the chops until Herzog has seen enough.
This is a statement performance for the debuting Santos, who earns her first career knockout in her biggest fight to date. Meanwhile, she also becomes the first fighter to finish the TUF victor as a professional.
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The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Juliana Miller R1 3:41 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Santos confidently, citing her judo background and slick grappling versus Miller's lack of skill and poor takedown defense. He notes Miller was a terrible -450 favorite who couldn't defend takedowns. He already placed a quarter unit at -140 and expects the line to move further.
Big Brady picks Juliana Miller to win by decision, but is not confident. He notes Miller's terrible striking defense but good grappling. He thinks Santos's head-and-arm throws could be reversed by Miller, leading to back takes. He calls the line a 'massive over correction' and sees Miller as a live dog. However, he admits he doesn't want to bet it.
Cody picks Santos, citing her judo black belt and solid takedown entries. He criticizes Miller's wrestling and striking, noting she was taken down four times by Veronica Hardy. He thinks Santos can get the fight to the mat and control it. He also notes Santos' only losses are to a high-level grappler (Jenna Bishop). He believes Santos would have won The Ultimate Fighter season if she were on it.
James leans toward Miller as a potential underdog, noting Santos didn't look great in her last fight and Miller is gritty. However, he hasn't done full tape and is not confident. He sees possible value on Miller but needs to study more.
Miller is a BJJ black belt who does her best work on the ground, but her striking is lacking. Santos is a newcomer with a BJJ and Judo black belt, but she is not the type of striker that Hardy was, who used lateral movement to avoid takedowns. Miller should be able to drag the fight to the ground and grind out a decision. The recency bias has made Miller a plus 140 dog after being a minus 400 favorite in her last fight, which is a value spot.
Paul picks Santos, agreeing that Miller is overrated. He notes Miller's poor wrestling and striking, and that Santos is the better striker and grappler. He thinks Santos' judo will neutralize Miller's wrestling and that Santos can win by decision or submission. He also mentions that the line opened with the wrong fighter favored.
The MMA Guru picks Luana Santos based on Juliana Miller's poor performance in her last fight, where she showed no skill, bad stand-up, and poor submission attempts. He notes that women's MMA is unpredictable but trusts Santos's age (23) and regional wins. He emphasizes that after watching Miller's last fight, he cannot logically pick her again.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veronica Hardy | 0 | 30 of 79 | 37% | 49 of 98 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 62 of 77 | 80% | 78 of 95 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 7:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Veronica Hardy | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 25 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 26 of 35 | 74% | 32 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Veronica Hardy | 0 | 8 of 20 | 40% | 12 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 16 of 19 | 84% | 20 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:45 | |
| 3 | Veronica Hardy | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 20 of 23 | 86% | 26 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veronica Hardy | 30 of 79 | 37% | 20 of 63 | 9 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 22 of 65 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 5 |
| Juliana Miller | 62 of 77 | 80% | 39 of 52 | 12 of 14 | 11 of 11 | 32 of 43 | 5 of 6 | 25 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Veronica Hardy | 19 of 45 | 42% | 12 of 35 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 26 of 35 | 74% | 19 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Veronica Hardy | 8 of 20 | 40% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 |
| Juliana Miller | 16 of 19 | 84% | 14 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 12 | |
| 3 | Veronica Hardy | 3 of 14 | 21% | 1 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Juliana Miller | 20 of 23 | 86% | 6 of 8 | 9 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 13 |
Angelo acknowledges Juliana Miller is ferocious and has impressive scramble skills, but he notes she is not very polished and only has four professional fights. He is wary of betting on women's MMA after JJ Aldrich's loss and refuses to lay -450 on a fighter he considers not very good. He sees this as a setup win for Miller but is staying away from betting.
Big Brady picks Juliana Miller, noting she made improvements in her last fight against Brogan Walker, especially in wrestling. He is concerned about Miller's striking defense and hittability, but believes she can take the fight down and finish. He is not confident enough to lay -450, but sees Miller's path to victory via TKO or submission. He mentions Hardy has not fought in three years and looked awful in her last UFC stint.
Cody picks Miller, citing her grappling advantage and Hardy's susceptibility to takedowns. He notes Miller's striking is poor but if she gets the fight to the ground, she should win. He worries about Miller's mental lapses and the crowd atmosphere, but thinks she is the better fighter. He says minus 450 is scary but Miller should roll.
Connor picks Miller, citing Hardy's inefficiency and poor fight IQ. He notes that Hardy burns energy quickly and makes bad decisions, while Miller is relentless with her wrestling and top pressure. Connor believes Miller will take Hardy down and grind her out, despite Miller's own technical flaws.
Jacob thinks Juliana Miller should win but has low confidence due to the unpredictability of women's MMA. He notes Veronica Hardy has been away for three years and could look great or rusty. He likes the under 2.5 rounds at even money because Miller should steamroll Hardy, but he is not betting the moneyline.
Miller's grappling is her calling card, but her striking is technically deficient and leaves openings. Hardy has a long layoff and is poor off her back unless she throws up a Hail Mary submission. Miller's relentless pace and top control should lead to a finish in the latter half. The fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite spot.
Paul picks Miller, noting Hardy's strange career path and long layoff. He says Hardy is surprisingly only 27 but has been doing broadcasting and may not be fully committed. He thinks Miller's tenacity and grappling will be too much. He says minus 450 scares him but he sees more upside from Miller.
The MMA Guru picks Juliana Miller over Veronica Hardy, citing Hardy's lack of commitment and long layoffs. He notes Hardy has not been active and seems to treat MMA as a hobby, while Miller has more recent experience including fights on The Ultimate Fighter. He predicts Miller will win by decision, acknowledging Hardy's dangerous submission game off her back but favoring Miller's mindset and activity.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Hardy's taekwondo-based style leaves her vulnerable to pressure. He points out that Hardy gasses quickly and cannot manage distance well. Zane expects Miller's aggressive wrestling and top control to be too much for Hardy, who has no answer for a relentless grappler.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 30 of 48 | 62% | 52 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:16 |
| Brogan Walker | 0 | 54 of 85 | 63% | 110 of 156 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 9:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juliana Miller | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Brogan Walker | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 28 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 | |
| 2 | Juliana Miller | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 18 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:51 |
| Brogan Walker | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 27 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:04 | |
| 3 | Juliana Miller | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Brogan Walker | 0 | 33 of 52 | 63% | 55 of 81 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juliana Miller | 30 of 48 | 62% | 16 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 10 | 28 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Brogan Walker | 54 of 85 | 63% | 43 of 72 | 5 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 25 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 25 of 39 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juliana Miller | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brogan Walker | 8 of 13 | 61% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | |
| 2 | Juliana Miller | 12 of 18 | 66% | 6 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Brogan Walker | 13 of 20 | 65% | 9 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 4 | |
| 3 | Juliana Miller | 15 of 26 | 57% | 8 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brogan Walker | 33 of 52 | 63% | 26 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 18 of 27 |
Angelo picks Brogan Walker based on experience. He notes Miller's intensity and pressure but believes Walker's composure and high-level experience will prevail. He thinks Walker can weather the storm and impose her will, while Miller might be overwhelmed by the moment. He plans to just enjoy the fight without betting.
Big Brady leans toward Brogan Walker, citing her experience advantage over the green Juliana Miller, who has only three professional fights. He notes that Walker has faced tougher competition and is a black belt in BJJ, though Miller is a more dangerous submission grappler. He believes Walker is the better striker and can keep the fight on the feet to win a decision. He acknowledges Miller's upside but favors Walker's current skill set.
Cody is confident in Miller, calling her a 'junkyard dog' with a grinding style. He praises her flexibility, funky jiu-jitsu, and willingness to scrap. Cody notes that Walker is a striker who tends to tire, and that Miller's pace and grappling will break her down. He sees multiple paths to victory for Miller, whether by submission or decision.
Paul leans toward Miller, citing her aggression and grappling ability. He notes that Miller is younger and less experienced but can push a pace that Walker may not handle. Paul thinks Miller's body lock takedowns and ground game give her an edge, and that Walker's experience may not be enough.
The MMA Guru picks Brogan Walker, citing her more experience and better technique from watching TUF. He thinks Walker is more technical and will win 30-27. He notes the UFC might want Miller to win for promotional reasons, but he still goes with Walker.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Carli Judice, citing her superior striking, good volume, and takedown defense. He notes Juliana Miller has heart but lacks skill and hasn't improved. He mentions a potential prop bet on Miller plus 3.5 if she wins a round, but his clear pick is Judice.
Big Brady picks Carli Judice to defeat Juliana Miller, calling it a 'sanctioned murder.' He notes Miller has terrible striking defense (36%) and was pieced up by Luana Santos, who is not a good striker. He believes Judice is physically strong, has good takedown defense, and superior striking with phenomenal volume. He predicts a first-round knockout, possibly by head kick or knee, and thinks it could be a mercy stoppage.
Cody thinks Judice's striking and athleticism will be too much for Miller. He notes Miller's poor wrestling and linear movement. He expects Judice to win by decision or TKO.
Connor picks Judice, comparing her technical footwork to Duane Ludwig. He notes she shifts to cut angles and outmaneuver opponents, which has improved since her debut. Miller is tough but can't strike or wrestle, and Judice will easily outclass her.
James picks Carli Judice to win by knockout, citing her massive striking advantage over Miller. He notes that Miller is multiple levels below Judice on the feet and that her only hope is grappling, which Judice has defended well. James expects Judice to land a TKO.
Judice is a talented striker with good takedown defense, as shown in her recent wins. She should be able to keep the fight standing and pick apart Miller, who is mediocre on the feet. Miller will try to grapple, but Judice has improved her grappling defense and should get back to her feet. Expect a TKO in the second or third round as Miller fades.
Paul agrees, citing Judice's improvement and Miller's lack of wrestling. He thinks Miller's only path is takedowns, but Judice's striking will be too much. He expects Judice to win comfortably.
The MMA Guru believes Carli Judice is a much more technical fighter with a significant striking advantage over Juliana Miller. He notes that Judice arguably won her Contender Series fight and her UFC debut, and has since finished her last two opponents via TKO. He expects Judice to break Miller down with body work, specifically knees, front kicks, and teeps, leading to a second or third round TKO.
Zane picks Judice emphatically, noting she has improved dramatically as a technician, especially her footwork. She runs circles around opponents and negates power disadvantages. Miller can't strike or wrestle, and Judice will tear her apart. Zane expects Judice to style on Miller.
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