UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026 · Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 7"
Reach 73"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 31
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Ode' Osbourne
2.94 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
3.24 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.94 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Alibi Idiris
2.51 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
2.64 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
3.25 TD Avg
31.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Ode' Osbourne - Fight History
CANCEL vs Cody Durden
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2026 (12 days before fight)

AJ picks Alessandro Costa to win by submission, noting Costa's knockout power and submission threat. He believes Costa's low stance and power make him hard to takedown, and that Cody Durden will struggle with Costa's boxing and grappling. He expects Costa to hurt Durden on the feet and potentially submit him.

submission, club and sub
"I'm picking Alisandro Costa to win. ... I'll even go as far as to say submission."
BI
Big Brady Expert picked Jun 30, 2026 (11 days before fight)

This fight was removed from the card. Big Brady mentions it was replaced by Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden. No pick is made for the original matchup.

"We lost OD Osborne versus Cody Deran, which I was really upset about because I thought that fight was going to be fun."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 30, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Daniel Levi picks his personal friend Cody Durden to win, citing Durden's high pace and ability to outwork opponents. He acknowledges Costa's power but believes Durden can avoid getting caught and mix in wrestling to secure a decision. Levi notes Durden's recent reinvigorated performance against Jafel Filho.

"I'm going to pick Duran to come out here and get his arm raised and start a new win streak."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Cody Durden

The host believes Cody Durden's pace, pressure, and cardio will overwhelm Alessandro Costa, who is on short notice. He notes Durden's durability is a concern but expects him to outwork Costa in striking and scrambles, leading to a decision win.

Cody Durden by decision
"I'm going to go dirt in here to pull off the upset to start off the card and I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision."
NC vs Alibi Idiris
NC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ode' Osbourne 0 32 of 90 35% 48 of 107 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:58
Alibi Idiris 0 30 of 75 40% 62 of 117 5 of 15 33% 0 0 6:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ode' Osbourne 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alibi Idiris 0 12 of 30 40% 19 of 37 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:00
2 Ode' Osbourne 0 14 of 33 42% 15 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alibi Idiris 0 7 of 23 30% 19 of 41 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:15
3 Ode' Osbourne 0 10 of 31 32% 25 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:58
Alibi Idiris 0 11 of 22 50% 24 of 39 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ode' Osbourne 32 of 90 35% 21 of 74 11 of 15 0 of 1 27 of 84 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alibi Idiris 30 of 75 40% 22 of 58 1 of 5 7 of 12 22 of 64 2 of 4 6 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ode' Osbourne 8 of 26 30% 6 of 23 2 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alibi Idiris 12 of 30 40% 8 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 7 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Ode' Osbourne 14 of 33 42% 7 of 23 7 of 10 0 of 0 11 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0
Alibi Idiris 7 of 23 30% 5 of 17 0 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 18 1 of 2 3 of 3
3 Ode' Osbourne 10 of 31 32% 8 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 1 8 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alibi Idiris 11 of 22 50% 9 of 18 1 of 2 1 of 2 7 of 17 1 of 2 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alibi Idiris vs. Ode Osbourne

Round 1
Dan Miragliotta is the referee. Idiris opens with an inside low kick and then shoots for a takedown. Osbourne shucks him aside. Idiris leaps in with a right and it sits Osbourne down. The flyweights are back to it and Idiris lands another impactful right. Osbourne kicks the body. Idiris lands a leg kick and drives Osbourne into the fence. Idiris goes from a foot stomp to a shoulder strike. They move off the fence and Idiris trips Osbourne down. Idiris is inside his foe’s full guard. Osbourne creates space with his guard momentarily, but Idiris dives right back into top position. Idiris advances to side half guard. Osbourne stands but Idiris is attached to his back. Osbourne is able to free himself, and he counters a leaping Idiris nicely. Idiris steps in and lands another big right. A 1-2 lands for Osbourne and he eludes a takedown attempt. Osbourne catches Idiris with a right hook. Idiris moves in an lands an upward elbow.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Idiris
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Idiris
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Idiris

Round 2
Osbourne pressures early and connects with a combination followed by a body kick. Idiris shoots and Osbourne defends and breaks form the clinch. Idiris absorbs a couple body shots from Osbourne, who sprawls on a takedown. Idiris lands a leg kick. Osbourne lines up a left hand. Idiris lunges in with a right. Idiris grabs a hold of a leg and takes Osbourne down near the fence. Idiris is looking to work his way to the back against the cage. Idiris softens him with punches, but Osbourne turns. Now Idiris is in half guard, flat on his back. Osbourne stands and lands a couple knees before the break. Idiris lands a glancing head kick. Osbourne answers with a 1-2. A counter right lands for Idiris, who shoots for a takedown against the fence. Osbourne knees the body as he defends. Idiris nonetheless powers Osbourne to the mat with a body lock takedown. Idiris drops some heavy elbows from above, then switches to hammerfists as Osbourne scrambles. Idiris unloads with a couple more shots as they stand.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Idiris
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Idiris
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Idiris

Round 3
Idiris follows a body kick with a combination. Osbourne throws a kick that Idiris catches, and he dumps his foe to the mat. Idiris drops a heavy elbow from inside guard. Osbourne scrambles up and creates space, landing a combination. A left backs up Idiris temporarily. Osbourne partially lands a high kick. A stiff jab hits the mark for Osbourne. Osbourne ducks under a punch for a takedown but Idiris defends without issue. Idiris loads up and lands a big left. Idiris turns the corner and grounds Osbourne about halfway through the frame. Osbourne reverses into top position. Idiris is still throwing strikes from his back. Idiris is looking to turn this into a takedown. While that doesn’t happen, Idiris works his way back up and goes on the attack. He fires punches and shoves Osbourne back into the fence. From the clinch, Idiris lands a knee late, and he’ll end the fight in control.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Idiris (30-27 Idiris)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Idiris (30-27 Idiris)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Idiris (30-27 Idiris)

The Official Result
Alibi Idiris def. Ode Osbourne via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Angelo picks Ode' Osbourne, despite his poor takedown defense, because Alibi Idiris prefers to strike rather than wrestle. He believes Osbourne's superior striking and power will dominate if Idiris doesn't exploit the takedown weakness. He expresses frustration with Osbourne's lack of improvement in takedown defense.

"I'm going to pick Ode."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Alibi Idiris

Big Brady picks Alibi Idiris to defeat Ode' Osbourne, citing Osbourne's tendency to fade after a round and a half. He notes Osbourne is dangerous early but has poor cardio and suspect submission defense. He likes Idris's cardio, ability to mix in takedowns, and believes he can hurt Osbourne on the feet. He predicts a second-round knockout for Idris, though he acknowledges a submission is possible.

Alibi Idiris by second-round knockout
"I like Idris here. I think he's going to put a pace on Ode. ... give me Adeyris to win this fight. I'll say second round knockout for Aliebi Adeyris."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Cody thinks Osbourne's experience and reach advantage will be key. He notes Idiris looked poor against Joseph Morales and questions his heart. He expects Osbourne to edge a decision or get a late finish.

"OD Osborne wins more often than not to cover the plus money price tag. So, I'm going to take it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alibi Idiris

Connor takes a flyer on Idiris, noting that the style matchup is different from the Morales fight—Idiris will get to strike with Osbourne, which suits him better. He points out Idiris has actual pocket fighting feel and Osbourne is tense at range. However, he acknowledges Idiris may still not be ready.

"I might even take i'll take a flyer on a dearest. I think... at the very least I think a dearest should be regarded as a live dog against a fellow striker"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alibi Idiris

James picks Alibi Idiris to win by finish, likely submission, citing Osbourne's struggles with grappling. He notes that Idiris trains with Asu Almabayev, who dominated Osbourne with takedowns and submissions. James believes Idiris will mix in grappling and eventually submit or ground-and-pound Osbourne.

"I'm going to pick Idris in this fight. I'm going to pick him to win via finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alibi Idiris

Idiris is the better grappler and wrestler, and he should have a cardio advantage. Osbourne has power but fades after the first round and struggles with grappling. Idiris can survive the first round and then dominate with takedowns and control in the later rounds. The line has moved due to Osbourne's recent performance, but Idiris should win a decision.

"So once again, I'm going to go Idris and Idris by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Paul agrees, citing Osbourne's five-inch reach advantage and experience against tougher competition. He thinks Idiris is unproven and that Osbourne's speed and length will cause problems. He expects Osbourne to win.

"Just so much more experience that if you put a slight even slight plus money next to OD's name, I'm going to have to click it as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alibi Idiris

The MMA Guru picks Alibi Idiris, believing his grappling will be the difference. He notes that Idiris is well-rounded with good kicks, boxing, and grappling, and that Osbourne can be held down by grapplers. He references Idiris' fight with Vince Morales and thinks he can keep Osbourne on the ground.

"I'm going to take Al Iaquinta. ... I think he's going to beat Ode Osbourne and I do think his grappling is going to be the difference."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Zane picks Osbourne, believing Idiris is not ready for a veteran like Osbourne. He notes that Idiris gassed quickly against Morales and was overwhelmed by being the nail. Zane thinks Osbourne can make Idiris the nail for a round and a half, and Idiris won't handle it.

"I still think ode osborn can make him the nail for a round and a half at which point I just don't think that idiris is ready for that"
LOSS vs Steve Erceg
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Erceg 0 20 of 53 37% 39 of 82 3 of 10 30% 1 0 4:47
Ode' Osbourne 0 35 of 74 47% 47 of 89 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Erceg 0 3 of 11 27% 4 of 14 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:06
Ode' Osbourne 0 17 of 32 53% 26 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:46
2 Steve Erceg 0 11 of 25 44% 18 of 33 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:58
Ode' Osbourne 0 12 of 25 48% 15 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
3 Steve Erceg 0 6 of 17 35% 17 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:43
Ode' Osbourne 0 6 of 17 35% 6 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Erceg 20 of 53 37% 10 of 42 10 of 11 0 of 0 12 of 43 6 of 8 2 of 2
Ode' Osbourne 35 of 74 47% 20 of 53 4 of 7 11 of 14 29 of 68 1 of 1 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Erceg 3 of 11 27% 2 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ode' Osbourne 17 of 32 53% 10 of 21 0 of 2 7 of 9 12 of 27 0 of 0 5 of 5
2 Steve Erceg 11 of 25 44% 4 of 18 7 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 18 5 of 7 0 of 0
Ode' Osbourne 12 of 25 48% 7 of 19 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Steve Erceg 6 of 17 35% 4 of 14 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Ode' Osbourne 6 of 17 35% 3 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Steve Erceg vs. Ode Osbourne
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Erceg (-400); Osbourne (+300)

Round 1
We have reached the co-main event, a battle between two flyweights who decided that they would be better suited competing at 135 pounds on late notice. Former title challenger Erceg (12-4, 3-3 UFC) has run into a competitive wall as of late, and he fights down in the rankings to take on Osbourne (13-8, 1 NC; 5-6 UFC). The referee for tonight’s penultimate match will Mark Smith, and the athletes tap gloves together before getting down to it.
Osbourne claims the center of the cage, fishing with his jab and awkward up-and-down hand movement. Osbourne kicks the front leg of his foe multiple times, and he sits back when Erceg advances to aim a counter. The left hand from Osbourne bounces Erceg off the wall, who rebounds and lets go with a big overhand right. Osbourne chips at the heavy favorite, chewing up his knee with oblique kicks and parrying the oncoming fire. Osbourne times Erceg with two crisp punches, standing the former title challenger up and marking up his nose. Osbourne continues chopping at the knee with kicks, and he narrowly dodges a big right hand up top. Osbourne keeps moving his hands in circular motions, and when Erceg comes in, he pops him in the chops with a right hand. Erceg slings a right hand to set up a takedown shot, and Osbourne springboards off the wall to get out and back to kickboxing range. The Aussie just misses a looping right hand, and he stands a little too still after swinging.
Osbourne fires off a huge right hand to the temple, and Erceg crashes face-first into the wall. Still somewhat with it, Erceg looks for a single, pushing the underdog to the fence while trying to recover. Osbourne starts smacking him upside the head while defending the takedown, and he uses his weight to topple over on top of Erceg. Osbourne scrambles to take his back, and Erceg keeps moving and gets back to his feet. Erceg turns the tables on his opponent, wrangling him to the mat and snaking around to take his back. Erceg starts hunting for a rear-naked choke while getting his hooks in, and Osbourne times a moment to spin around in the guard and wind up on top without getting subbed. Osbourne tosses out a head kick as Erceg stands, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne

Round 2
The athletes hand-fight to start off until Osbourne looses a big body kick. Erceg’s attempted counter is caught with a right hand on the jaw. Erceg calms himself down and shoots for a single, pressing the underdog to the wall. Erceg works the body with short punches to try to take some of the sting out of the punches. They switch position while clinches until Osbourne breaks free.
Both men throw out jabs, and Osbourne connects with a hard inside leg kick. Erceg boots Osbourne upside the head, and “The Jamaican Sensation” does not bat an eye. Erceg sticks out a few right hands, using them to set up a takedown shot. A knee from Erceg bangs into the cup, and Osbourne grimaces and Smith tells the fouling fighter to watch it. There is no break, so Osbourne takes it into his own hands to separate himself. Erceg reaches after him with a body kick on the way out. Erceg steps in with a left hand, and Osbourne busts him in the chops with a right hand that staggers him. The Aussie’s takedown shot fails, but his front kick after it digs into the body. Osbourne stays elusive and trips Erceg coming forward, but he misses a few big hooks. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Erceg

Round 3
There is a clap of hands to start the final frame, and they both land at the same time. Erceg pitches a head kick that Osbourne is able to partially block, and Osbourne shrugs it off and gets after the former title challenger. Osbourne connects with a hard right hand, and Erceg stumbles and shakes it off to go for a single. “The Jamaican Sensation” trades in the pocket for a moment, and he calms down to thrust out jabs. Erceg digs him with a single punch, chaining it into a few more with a right hand at the end. Erceg lands first and last in a flurry, and he shoots for a double and lifts Osbourne off the ground. Erceg dumps his foe to the mat, allowing Osbourne to scramble so he can get to a more advantageous position.
The Aussie steps into half guard, staying heavy and flat chest-to-chest to not let Osbourne buck him off. Rather than attack, Erceg smothers, to which he uses the heavy pressure to advance to full mount. Osbourne spins around to his knees, and Erceg welcomes this too so he can get his back. “Astro Boy” secures the body triangle, and he loops his left arm beneath the chin but does not have the anchor arm to complete it. Perhaps due to the sweatiness of both men, but Osbourne is able to squirm around and work his way out of bad position and upright again. Erceg aggressively grabs Osbourne and chucks him to the floor, where Osbourne lands on his knees taking fire on both sides of his head. Erceg fastens a rear-naked choke that is on the chin and not under it, and he bails on it to sit up and deliver two gnarly punches before time expires. The second round could be the difference-maker as to who prevailed in this co-headliner.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Osbourne)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)

The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Ode Osbourne via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Angelo picks Steve Erceg, emphasizing that Erceg is an accomplished wrestler who should use takedowns against Ode' Osbourne, who has poor takedown defense. He criticizes Erceg for not wrestling in recent fights. If Erceg wrestles, he should win; if he strikes, he could lose. Angelo hopes Erceg has learned from his mistakes.

"Steve Urs is going to be the pick. But if this idiot doesn't wrestle, Jesus Christ."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Big Brady is confident in Steve Erceg, noting his losses came only to champions or top contenders. He believes Erceg is better everywhere, especially in grappling, and that Osbourne has poor takedown defense, cardio, and durability. Brady predicts Erceg will submit Osbourne in the second round.

second round submission
"I like Steve quite a bit. Give me Steve Urs to win this fight and win it by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Connor picks Erceg because he is a more structured, consistent fighter than Osbourne, who is fast but dysfunctional and gasses easily. He notes that Erceg's defense is a concern but that he manages distance well when on the front foot, and that Osbourne's tendency to jump into the pocket will lead to takedowns and grappling where Erceg has the advantage. Connor acknowledges the southpaw question but believes Erceg will handle it.

Odds mentioned: Erceg opened -350, currently -600; Osbourne opened +285, currently +425.
"I just don't think it's going to matter when Ode Osbourne is jumping into the pocket at him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

The host believes Erceg is the better fighter with superior Muay Thai and a BJJ black belt. He acknowledges Osbourne's speed and power shown in his last fight, which is a concern as Erceg has been dropped before. However, he thinks Erceg will dial it in to avoid a four-fight losing streak and win on the scorecards.

"I believe that Ersig is the better fighter here. I think his Muay Thai is superior to Osbourne's and I think his BJJ black belt can definitely prove him well should he uh decide to take this fight to the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Steve Erceg

The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg, calling him a more well-rounded mixed martial artist than Ronaldo Rodriguez, who beat Osbourne. He believes Erceg has better chin, submission defense, and IQ. He predicts a 30-27 decision or a third-round finish, dismissing Osbourne's chances unless he catches Erceg early.

"Steve Ursk should win this fight. ... I'm gonna go with Steve Ursk getting this one done. 30-27 decision, maybe a third round finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Zane picks Erceg, noting that Osbourne is a dark horse who can deliver a top flyweight result but is inherently dysfunctional. He highlights Osbourne's poor takedown defense (65%) and tendency to gas, while Erceg is tough, has good grappling, and doesn't make many mistakes going forward. Zane is concerned about Erceg's lack of experience against southpaws but thinks Osbourne's style will force wrestling, which favors Erceg.

Odds mentioned: Erceg opened -350, currently -600; Osbourne opened +285, currently +425.
"I think Osborne is just going to force that aspect of the game. And then once that happens, it's going to be Erceg's fight."
WIN vs Luis Gurule
TKO (punches) R2 1:54 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ode' Osbourne 1 18 of 43 41% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Luis Gurule 0 12 of 34 35% 26 of 49 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ode' Osbourne 0 5 of 19 26% 5 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luis Gurule 0 7 of 19 36% 21 of 33 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:07
2 Ode' Osbourne 1 13 of 24 54% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Luis Gurule 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ode' Osbourne 18 of 43 41% 11 of 33 6 of 9 1 of 1 14 of 37 0 of 1 4 of 5
Luis Gurule 12 of 34 35% 3 of 13 0 of 7 9 of 14 11 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ode' Osbourne 5 of 19 26% 1 of 13 3 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0
Luis Gurule 7 of 19 36% 1 of 7 0 of 3 6 of 9 7 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ode' Osbourne 13 of 24 54% 10 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 19 0 of 0 4 of 5
Luis Gurule 5 of 15 33% 2 of 6 0 of 4 3 of 5 4 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Luis Gurule vs. Ode Osbourne
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gurule (-218), Osbourne (+180)

Round 1
His back likely against the wall in this flyweight pairing, Osbourne (12-8, 1 NC; 4-6 UFC) will try to put his three-fight skid in the past. He welcomes Factory X product Gurule (10-0, 0-0 UFC) to the promotion, with the latter working his way up the Fury FC circuit to reach the Contender Series last year. The 125ers will have referee Jason Herzog watching over the action to make sure nothing goes awry, and they elect to touch gloves first. Gurule leads off with a kid to the side, and Osbourne pays him back immediately with one. Gurule kicks low, and he darts away to the side and offers another. Osbourne kicks him in the side twice, and Gurule answers with a left hand and a high kick—both are blocked, but the sheer momentum budges him a bit. Osbourne walks Gurule down and punches him square in the face, and Gurule has to rebound off the fence to blink it out. “The Jamaican Sensation” goes after his foe with his rangy strikes, and he catches a body kick to come up with his other leg and boot Gurule in the face. They trade kicks on the outside, and Gurule ducks a punch and flips Osbourne all the way over to slam him down on his back. Gurule lands directly in side control and uses his shoulder to press down on Osbourne’s face and keep him flat on the canvas. Gurule looks for full mount, and he is bounced out of it while slashing down with an elbow. Osbourne pulls him back to half guard, and Gurule accepts this so he can elbow the Wisconsin native further. Gurule drops down some ground-and-pound, spurring Osbourne into desperately returning to his feet with 20 seconds left. Gurule drops for a single, and he lets it go to wing a left hand over the top. Gurule has a head kick bounce off the guard, and they clash with kicks at the same time to conclude the frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gurule
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gurule
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gurule

Round 2
A fist bump leads into the action, where Gurule lets loose three kicks in rapid succession. Gurule ducks a strike to come up with a left hand, and he dances away from a one-two but is still in range for a front kick. Osbourne catches his man at the end of a right, and he times a ducking Gurule with an uppercut. The strike stops Gurule from completing the takedown, as Osbourne breaks free and jabs out a few times. Both men sting one another with long, straight punches, and Osbourne blocks a kick to drive a one-two down the pipe. When Gurule offers out a kick, Osbourne snipes him from his distance. This happens a second time, a naked kick from the unbeaten fighter is met with a concussive left hand that sends him to the floor in a heap.
Osbourne is surprised at the success of his blow, and he has to commit to finishing the fight rather than walking off. He leaps on the side of his opponent and hammers him with a number of unanswered right hands. As the punches continue to mount, Herzog says enough is enough and calls a halt to the match.
Just like that, the upset has been completed, while Gurule has been firmly ejected from the ranks of the unbeaten. Meanwhile, Osbourne can rest a little easier with that win on his belt, having put Gurule down with what he called a “Dewey Cooper special.”

The Official Result
Ode Osbourne def. Luis Gurule R2 1:54 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luis Gurule

Angelo acknowledges Ode' Osbourne is better than his recent record and nearly won his last fight, but he thinks Osbourne may be dejected after three losses and that his grappling gaps remain. He picks Luis Gurule due to his pressure, power, and grappling, but warns that undefeated UFC debuts often lose and advises against betting. He calls it a trap fight where Osbourne could win out of nowhere.

"I'm going to go with Luis here because despite the experience Gap oday hasn't closed his grappling gaps and I think Luis can get the grappling going."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Luis Gurule

Big Brady picks Luis Gurule despite not being impressed with him. He notes Ode' Osbourne has durability and cardio issues, often fading after the first round. He expects Gurule's solid cardio and durability to take over as the fight progresses, leading to a decision win.

"I'm going to take Luis GLE to win this fight winning this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Connor picks Osbourne but is not confident. He notes that Osbourne is a stiff test for Gurule, who has a raw game and may not be on the level. He mentions that Osbourne's experience against better competition should matter, but also that Osbourne's losses follow a pattern of losing to better athletes.

Osbourne opened at +181, now +216; Connor thinks the line is too wide.
"I think osborne come rushes out probably wins the first round. Ghoulais pressure gets to him in the third and he loses the third and it's just a question of what happens in the middle"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Luis Gurule

Gurule is making his UFC debut with a 10-0 record and is expected to put on a pace and pressure that Osbourne cannot keep up with, leading to a third-round stoppage.

third round stoppage
"I really like Gru in the spot making his UFC debut with a 10 and0 record and I expect him to go out there and put on a pace and pressure that Osborne is unable to keep up with leading …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Luis Gurule

The Guru picks Luis Gurule, noting his undefeated record and grindy style. He criticizes Ode' Osbourne for losing to Ronaldo Rodriguez and having multiple submission losses. He expects a close decision but thinks the prospect will get the nod over Osbourne, who he considers not good enough.

"I'm going to go with Lewis Geru grling his way to a win with a grindy style on the inside. I'm going to pick Lewis Garul. Close decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Zane picks Osbourne, citing his experience and speed advantage. He notes that Osbourne is too quick and experienced for Gurule, who is raw and not a great athlete. However, he acknowledges that Osbourne tends to fade after the first round and that Gurule's pressure could be a factor in the later rounds.

Osbourne opened at +181, now +216; Zane thinks the line is too wide in favor of Gurule.
"for the hell of it i'll pick osborne cool, it's just going to be too experienced and too quick"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ronaldo Rodríguez 0 35 of 69 50% 68 of 117 1 of 2 50% 0 1 9:14
Ode' Osbourne 1 37 of 68 54% 55 of 93 1 of 3 33% 2 1 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ronaldo Rodríguez 0 6 of 14 42% 25 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 1 4:14
Ode' Osbourne 1 18 of 32 56% 30 of 45 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
2 Ronaldo Rodríguez 0 19 of 24 79% 29 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:10
Ode' Osbourne 0 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:22
3 Ronaldo Rodríguez 0 10 of 31 32% 14 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:50
Ode' Osbourne 0 13 of 26 50% 19 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ronaldo Rodríguez 35 of 69 50% 29 of 61 1 of 2 5 of 6 10 of 31 0 of 0 25 of 38
Ode' Osbourne 37 of 68 54% 28 of 59 4 of 4 5 of 5 22 of 46 0 of 0 15 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ronaldo Rodríguez 6 of 14 42% 4 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 8
Ode' Osbourne 18 of 32 56% 15 of 29 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 14 0 of 0 12 of 18
2 Ronaldo Rodríguez 19 of 24 79% 18 of 23 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 22
Ode' Osbourne 6 of 10 60% 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 4
3 Ronaldo Rodríguez 10 of 31 32% 7 of 27 0 of 1 3 of 3 8 of 23 0 of 0 2 of 8
Ode' Osbourne 13 of 26 50% 8 of 21 2 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ode Osbourne vs. Ronaldo Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-135), Osbourne (+114)

Round 1
Before the main card commences, the UFC really shows off what the Sphere can do. A few videos play, and we find ourselves in Level 2, in front of some Aztec-looking pyramids. This is the real deal. As far as fights go, a bit of a sleeper matchup became one much noisier on Thursday courtesy of Rodriguez’ (16-2, 1-0 UFC) on-stage verbal confrontation with Osbourne (12-7, 1 NC; 4-5 UFC). Spanish-speaking viewers might have had their ears filled with all sorts of obscenity, but it may have been just what the doctor ordered to spice up this 125-pound affair. Referee Chris Tognoni will keep clean what has turned into a slight grudge match, one that has devolved to the point that they opt not to touch ‘em up before proceeding. Osbourne immediately fights behind his jab, landing two clean left hands behind them. Rodriguez tries to parry the blows and ends up eating two hard body kicks. Rodriguez recklessly attacks with a naked kick, and Osbourne counters him with a blistering right hand that sends “Lazy Boy” collapsing to the mat. Osbourne follows him to the ground to finish the job, dropping down hammerfists and punches, and he snatches up a triangle choke and rolls to his back to lock it down. Rodriguez clings to consciousness and absorbs several elbows at the top of the head, and he miraculously stands himself up to free himself from the seemingly fight-ending choke. Rodriguez lowers himself back down into the guard, and he gathers his thoughts as Osbourne hacks at him with elbows from his back. Osbourne continues to slash from his back, and Rodriguez has his thoughts about him and he delivers some mean ground-and-pound back. Rodriguez slams home a few elbows that stun Osbourne, and Osbourne angrily swings back at him from the bottom. A few wide-arcing hammerfists sting Rodriguez again, making Rodriguez lower himself back down instead of sitting up to attack again. Osbourne turns to his side and closes his guard, and he absorbs a few ground strikes from his opponent. Rodriguez jams down several punches and elbows to stay busy and perhaps stave off a 10-8 score, and he maintains this position until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Osbourne
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Osbourne
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Osbourne

Round 2
Osbourne is ready to trade when the fight resumes on the feet in Round 2, and he quickly blocks a head kick to counter with a pair of punches. Osbourne goes up with a kick, and he fights off a takedown attempt by hooking up a power guillotine choke. Rodriguez takes Osbourne off his seat and wrenches his neck out of the submission, and as Osbourne scrambles, Rodriguez takes his back and gets a hook in. Rodriguez sits up and connects with a number of left hands while hanging on from on top, and Osbourne is stuck on one knee before getting lowered down and flattened out. Rodriguez sits up in full mount and blasts Osbourne in the face with unrelenting elbows. Tognoni asks Osbourne to fight back, and Osbourne bucks and twists before exploding to turn Rodriguez to his side. Rodriguez rides him like a bucking bronco, and he reclaims full mount after a tense exchange. Osbourne sits up, but he does not turn, so Rodriguez happily takes his back and sets up a face crank. “Lazy Boy” sets up the body triangle and elbows Osbourne on the side of the head from a funny angle until he hunts for a rear-naked choke. The submission is on the jaw, and Osbourne rides it out and sits up again. Rodriguez hits him in the back of the head and cranks his face again. Rodriguez is warned for eye gouging, and he reclaims his position to get to mount thanks to his body triangle. Osbourne turns to break up the body triangle, but the hooks keep him stuck in position until the Mexican secures it again. Osbourne stomps and pushes off the mat to explode, but without spinning, he remains trapped in a dominant position. Osbourne finally twists with all his might with 20 seconds to spare, and he drills Rodriguez with a number of long, meaningful punches that bounce Rodriguez’ head off the mat. Time expires, and both fighters are fatigued but still have five minutes to go.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 3
The exhausted fighters try to bump fists, but they miss and shrug it off. Rodriguez level changes into a huge overhand left, and Osbourne springs away to defend against a takedown try. Rodriguez blocks a head kick and shoots for another takedown, and Osbourne sprawls it effectively and digs a kick to the ribs. Rodriguez whiffs on a home run punch, and his leg is tenderized a few times with kicks. Rodriguez is warned for outstretched fingers, and Osbourne snaps out a handful of jabs. Osbourne clicks a short right hand off the jaw, and Rodriguez has to hang on to not lose his footing. Osbourne fires a jab out, and Rodriguez tags him with an overhand right as “The Jamaican Sensation” acknowledges the blow. Osbourne dodges a pair of spinning wheel kicks, and he jabs Rodriguez up. Rodriguez loads up on haymakers, and he overswings his way into a double-leg attempt coming his way. Rodriguez stops the takedown and make them reset. Osbourne clinches his foe up, but he cannot hold him there as they back off. They trade left hooks, and Osbourne blinks it out and shoots for a double. Rodriguez latches onto the kimura immediately to sweep his man, but Osbourne remains heavy on top. Rodriguez returns to his knees and then feet to stand, and Osbourne backs off. Osbourne peppers his adversary with jabs, and he shoots a double when Rodriguez swings so hard he nearly falls over. Osbourne sits up after bailing on it, and Rodriguez holds on with a guillotine choke grip before aiming to take the back. Osbourne opts to falling to his back instead of giving it up, and they start trading with offense on both sides. Rodriguez lands several strikes, and Osbourne whips elbows back at him. The wild match comes to a close, and the judges will have their hands full with this one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (28-28)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (28-28)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (28-28)

The Official Result
Ronaldo Rodriguez def. Ode Osbourne via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-27, 29-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ronaldo Rodríguez

Angelo picks Ronaldo Rodríguez but advises against betting. He notes Ronaldo has multiple paths to victory (striking, ground) but his takedowns are not great, while Osbourne is a dangerous striker who has only lost due to wrestling, not striking. Angelo warns against the narrative that Osbourne is a free bet, as he is a good striker. He picks Ronaldo but stays away from betting.

Advises staying away from bets; warns against assuming Ronaldo is a free bet.
"I am going to pick Ronaldo here because of he's you know the multiple pass to Victory... but I'm likely staying away from bets here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ronaldo Rodríguez

Big Brady initially had concerns about Rodríguez after his first round against Bonder, but he favors Rodríguez's durability and heart over Osbourne's questionable durability. He predicts Rodríguez will lose the first round but break Osbourne in the second via submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to go with Rodriguez here I'll say he loses the first round and then kind of breaks oday in the second so give me Rodriguez to win this fight by second round submission"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ronaldo Rodríguez

Daniel Vreeland also picks Ronaldo Rodríguez, citing Osbourne's wrestling background being more wrestling than jiu-jitsu, and that Rodríguez is a sharp grappler who can reverse positions. He notes Osbourne has lost a step and is too slow and hitable. He also mentions Rodríguez's youth and speed at 125 pounds.

"I personally think OD is just probably going to be too slow he's probably going to be too hitable and if he does try to get that wrestling going I don't think it works for him here either so give …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ronaldo Rodríguez

Daniel picks Ronaldo Rodríguez, calling Ode' Osbourne a 'busted prospect' who hasn't improved and struggles with weight cuts. He notes Rodríguez's durability, faster hands, and scrambling ability, and believes Rodríguez will win despite being green. He expects to fade Rodríguez later but not this fight.

"I think that lazy boy can scramble back up and I think despite how green Lazy Boy is I think he's gonna win this fight"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ronaldo Rodríguez

Jeff Fox picks Ronaldo Rodríguez because he is ascending and much younger, while Ode' Osbourne is on the way down. He notes Osbourne's wrestling background hasn't played out well recently and that Rodríguez is a sharp grappler who can handle Osbourne's takedowns. He also mentions Rodríguez's speed and athleticism at flyweight.

"I like Rob Ruez he is ascending for sure against the guy who's seems to like I said be on the way down so give me the much younger guy at a uh lightweight class pretty much any day"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)

The transcript does not discuss this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ronaldo Rodríguez

Rodriguez is a very solid fighter who will cause Osborne a lot of trouble. Osborne may have early success with takedowns and control time, but Rodriguez will provide resistance and pressure Osborne on the feet, eventually finding a finish in the second round, likely by submission.

finish in the second round, likely by submission
"I think Rodriguez will continue to provide resistance and then pressure Osborne on the feet eventually finding that finish in the second round likely by submission"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Ronaldo Rodríguez

The MMA Guru picks Ronaldo Rodríguez. He notes Osbourne has been beaten too many times and has been submitted in his last two fights. Rodríguez is a consistent finisher with submissions, and Osbourne has been put away by submission recently. He also mentions Rodríguez's win over Dennis Bondar and that Osbourne lost to Charles Johnson (though he thought Johnson won).

"I'm gonna go Ronaldo Rodriguez OD Osborne's just been beaten too many times for my Lykan um and Ronaldo Rodriguez is a consistent finisher"
LOSS vs Jafel Filho
Submission R1 4:27 · UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Mar 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jafel Filho 0 21 of 35 60% 43 of 66 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:21
Ode' Osbourne 0 0 of 5 0% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jafel Filho 0 21 of 35 60% 43 of 66 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:21
Ode' Osbourne 0 0 of 5 0% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jafel Filho 21 of 35 60% 18 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 28
Ode' Osbourne 0 of 5 0% 0 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jafel Filho 21 of 35 60% 18 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 28
Ode' Osbourne 0 of 5 0% 0 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jafel Filho vs. Ode Osbourne
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Filho (-180), Osbourne (+150)

Round 1
Two flyweight finishers meet in hopes of advancing in the wide-open division, where three wins can get you a title shot these days. Filho (15-3, 1-1 UFC) has earned all but one of his career victories via stoppage, while Osbourne’s (12-6, 1 NC; 4-4 UFC) 75% finish rate is nothing to sneeze at either. Referee Herb Dean may have his hands full for as long as this lasts. It begins with a glove touch, and Filho is quick to move right to the middle of the cage. Filho goes wide with a low kick, and has a front kick parried. Osbourne comes back at him with a front kick, and he darts away when Filho sprints with a body kick. Filho slams a low kick home, and he comes up short with a left hook. Filho eats a punch coming in for a takedown, and he flips Osbourne over with a sweep to put Osbourne down on the ground. Osbourne turns to his side, and he absorbs a bunch of right hands before giving up his back. Filho gets one hook in as he searches for a rear-naked choke, and Osbourne sits up to defend the submission. Filho sneaks in several undercuts beneath the armpit to fluster Osbourne, and he stifles “The Jamaican Sensation” before climbing on top of him again. Osbourne defends to not let Filho get both hooks in, but Filho ultimately flattens him out with sheer horsepower. Filho wrenches on with a neck crank that is all power, and Osbourne grits it out and turns to put his back on the floor. Filho leans down while hooking up an arm-triangle choke, and when this fails, he sits up and tugs on the fence before opening up with ground-and-pound. Filho rains down a barrage of punches, and Osbourne defends against several strikes but not all of them.
As Filho’s punches do damage, he opens up an opportunity to get the rear-naked choke he has wanted all this time. “Pastor” locks down the submission and forces Osbourne to confess with a tap.
When Dean splits them up, Filho scurries to his corner, where he grabs his bible and walks around the cage pointing at it.

The Official Result
Jafel Filho def. Ode Osbourne R1 4:27 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Mar 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Angelo is surprised Filho is a legitimate favorite. He acknowledges Filho's grappling advantage and size on the ground, and that Osbourne was taken down easily in his last fight. However, he has too much respect for Osbourne's striking and scramble skills to bet on this fight. He decides to leave it alone, making no pick.

"ultimately jofel probably wins this fight but I have way too much respect for oday his striking game his scramble skills to bet on this fight I'm going to leave this alone"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

Big Brady picks Jafel Filho to win by second-round submission. He believes Filho's toughness and ground game will be too much for Osbourne, who has poor cardio and has been submitted before. He expects Filho to survive an early onslaught and then take over.

by second round submission
"I'm going to take Philo to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

Cody picks Jafel Filho, praising his grappling and finishing ability. He notes Osbourne is prone to mistakes and has submission issues. Filho can take a punch and will relentlessly pursue takedowns and submissions. He expects Filho to catch a submission once the fight hits the ground.

by submission
"Filho kid looks pretty good I think he continues to make improvements... he's probably gonna catch a submission at some point."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jafel Filho

The host acknowledges Osbourne's early danger with speed and power but expects Filho to deal with that, wear on Osbourne against the cage, and drag him to the ground for a submission in the second or third round. He notes Osbourne tends to slow down and give up bad positions, similar to his fight against Alateng.

submission
"give me fio by sub"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

Paul also picks Filho, highlighting Osbourne's durability and submission issues. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop at -185, noting Filho comes hot and Osbourne may not withstand the onslaught. He mentions Filho has third-round finishes, showing he can finish late.

under 2.5 rounds (-185)
"I like him as well... the under two and a half rounds is minus 185 in most places don't I don't mind that."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

The Guru picks Jafel Filho, calling it a no-brainer. He highlights Filho's submission win over Daniel Barez while concussed, and his near-submission of Muhammad Mokaev. He dismisses Osbourne's wins as against low-level opponents like Jerome Rivera and Zhalgas Zhumagulov, and notes Osbourne is 32 and not a young prospect. He expects Filho to find a submission in round one or two.

submission in round one or two
"I'm going jeffel philho um I think this is a no-brainer... I reckon he'll be able to find his submission at some point in round one or two."
LOSS vs Asu Almabayev
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:11 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Asu Almabayev 0 4 of 18 22% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Ode' Osbourne 0 26 of 40 65% 52 of 78 2 of 5 40% 2 0 5:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Asu Almabayev 0 3 of 8 37% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Ode' Osbourne 0 21 of 31 67% 35 of 52 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:23
2 Asu Almabayev 0 1 of 10 10% 2 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ode' Osbourne 0 5 of 9 55% 17 of 26 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Asu Almabayev 4 of 18 22% 4 of 16 0 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ode' Osbourne 26 of 40 65% 17 of 31 5 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 14 0 of 0 17 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Asu Almabayev 3 of 8 37% 3 of 6 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ode' Osbourne 21 of 31 67% 14 of 24 4 of 4 3 of 3 4 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 25
2 Asu Almabayev 1 of 10 10% 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ode' Osbourne 5 of 9 55% 3 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Asu Almabaev vs. Ode Osbourne
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabaev (-185), Osbourne (+154)

Round 1
Gary Copeland will be the third man in the cage for this flyweight affair. They touch gloves and Almabaev opens with a low kick right away. Almabaev stays on the outside and attacks with an inside leg kick. Almabaev steps in and connects with an overhand right. Osborne shakes it off and looks for openings to attack. Almavaev loads up for another overhand right and shoots for a single leg takedown, planting Osbourne on his seat in the center of the cage. Almabaev pushes Osbourne to his back and settles into his opponent’s full guard. Almabaev works to create space for ground-and-pound, landing the occasional punch or elbow. Osbourne works his legs up and briefly threatens with a triangle before absorbing a solid left hand. Almabaev is content to work inside guard while methodically landing punches with either hand. Osbourne brings his leg up again, but Almabaev clears the legs and passes to side control. Almabaev lands an elbow that Osbourne doesn’t like, and he transitions to a modified guillotine choke. Osbourne survives until the horn. It's noteworthy that Almabaev is bleeding, presumably from an elbow Osbourne landed from his back.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
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Round 2
Almabaev throws a head kick before shooting for a takedown. Osbourne does a good job using the fence to remain upright before separating from the clinch. Almabaev is throwing big strikes: a head kick, an overhand right and then a spinning kick, which is followed by a failed double leg. Almabaev goes for a couple low kicks, then gets deep on a body lock and trips Osbourne to the canvas. Almabaev works his way to Osbourne’s back. Osbourne gets to a knee before his foe jumps on his back and pulls him down with a body triangle in place. Almabaev lands some punches while hunting for the rear-naked choke. Osbourne briefly has wrist control before
Almabaev deftly slides his right arm around his opponent’s jaw. The choke isn’t completely under Osbourne’s neck, but the squeeze is tight.
Osbourne has no choice but to tap after a few seconds of resistance.

The Official Result
Asu Almabaev def. Ode Osbourne via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R2 3:11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite it being his UFC debut, citing his flashy striking and dominant wrestling. He notes that Almabayev lifts opponents off the mat and controls them, which will exhaust Osbourne. He acknowledges Osbourne has power and can wrestle, but thinks he will be outmatched. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Almabayev at -155.

0.5 units at -155
"I have a half a unit on him at minus 155"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Big Brady likes Almabayev's wrestling and control, noting he is position-over-submission and doesn't make mistakes. He thinks Almabayev will push a wrestling-heavy pace and has a cardio advantage. He acknowledges Osbourne is dangerous off his back and has power, but expects Almabayev to win by decision, staying safe on top.

Almabayev by decision
"I'm going to take amab to win this fight I'm going to take him to Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Cody picks Almabayev by submission at +300, citing his strong takedown entries and transitions to the back. He notes Osbourne's poor takedown defense and history of being submitted. He believes Almabayev will wrestle heavily and eventually find a submission.

Almabayev by submission +300
"Alma bio by submission best price right now is plus 300... I'm hoping to get a slightly better price"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, expressing skepticism about Almabayev's level of competition. He notes that Almabayev struggled against aging UFC vets and has a low-output style. Levi believes Osbourne is more active and dangerous on the feet, with good length and submissions off his back. He is concerned about Osbourne's durability and tendency to play off his back, but thinks Osbourne's offensive skills can overcome Almabayev's wrestling.

No specific prop bet. Notes that sharp action is on Almabayev, but Levi disagrees.
"I'm gonna go ode Osborne here for the upset."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

James thinks the line is too wide favoring Almabayev. He notes Almabayev is a grappler but may not consolidate position for 15 minutes, while Osbourne is a good athlete with a decent sprawl. He also mentions the UFC debut trend often leads to underperformance. He picks Osbourne outright but says he wouldn't go crazy betting him.

"I do think this line is a bit wide... I'm going to pick Ode' Osbourne outright."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Almabayev is a solid Kazakhstani wrestler with a 17-2 record, showing good takedowns and reversals. Osbourne has cardio issues after the first round and is expected to drown under pressure. Unless Osbourne lands a Hail Mary knockout or submission early, Almabayev will finish him in the second or third round.

finish in round 2 or 3
"I think he's gonna falter break and eventually get finished by all mabiv and the second or third round of this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Paul agrees with Almabayev, citing Osbourne's struggles against grapplers and his poor takedown defense. He notes Almabayev's wrestling and cardio, and expects him to grind out a decision or get a submission. He is confident in the pick despite Almabayev's debut.

"I'm also going to take him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

The host picks Ode' Osbourne as an underdog, citing his UFC experience against legit competition versus Almabayev's padded resume. He notes Osbourne's southpaw stance, reach advantage, and improved grappling, but acknowledges the risk if Almabayev gets takedowns. He sees value at +148 and believes Osbourne can keep it standing and use his athleticism.

value at +148, line movement from +123 to +148
"I'm gonna side with the dog here okay I'm not gonna say it with an overwhelming amount of confidence but uh you know he's the underdog and I don't think that that's necessarily warranted especially when you're catching lines and …"
Decision (split) (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ode' Osbourne 0 48 of 154 31% 50 of 157 3 of 10 30% 0 0 2:53
Charles Johnson 0 60 of 127 47% 74 of 147 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ode' Osbourne 0 23 of 62 37% 24 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Charles Johnson 0 21 of 38 55% 24 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:32
2 Ode' Osbourne 0 11 of 48 22% 12 of 50 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:06
Charles Johnson 0 16 of 39 41% 20 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:33
3 Ode' Osbourne 0 14 of 44 31% 14 of 44 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:47
Charles Johnson 0 23 of 50 46% 30 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ode' Osbourne 48 of 154 31% 17 of 110 10 of 15 21 of 29 45 of 150 3 of 4 0 of 0
Charles Johnson 60 of 127 47% 28 of 78 10 of 24 22 of 25 42 of 101 17 of 25 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ode' Osbourne 23 of 62 37% 5 of 37 3 of 4 15 of 21 23 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Charles Johnson 21 of 38 55% 6 of 22 5 of 6 10 of 10 13 of 28 7 of 9 1 of 1
2 Ode' Osbourne 11 of 48 22% 4 of 38 2 of 3 5 of 7 11 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Charles Johnson 16 of 39 41% 12 of 29 0 of 6 4 of 4 14 of 35 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Ode' Osbourne 14 of 44 31% 8 of 35 5 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 40 3 of 4 0 of 0
Charles Johnson 23 of 50 46% 10 of 27 5 of 12 8 of 11 15 of 38 8 of 12 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Johnson vs. Ode Osbourne
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-170), Osbourne (+145)

Round 1
Jumping up on late notice to compete on the card, Osbourne (11-5, 1 NC; 3-3 UFC) will look to lift his UFC record above .500 when he faces Johnson (13-3, 2-1 UFC). Due to this coming together within a few weeks of the event, what was once a flyweight affair between Johnson and Denys Bondar will now take place at 130 pounds. This catchweight contest will receive oversight by referee Kerry Hatley, and despite being happy to be fighting after all, they elect not to touch gloves. They two meet in the middle but are fairly cautious to engage, with a few kicks thrown by either man in the first 30-second stretch. Osbourne works on Johnson’s lead wheel with a few calf kicks, and he steps forward with a one-two to knock “InnerG” back. Johnson tries to grab the low leg when Osbourne whips it at his lead leg, but this fails and he eats a few powerful leg kicks. Johnson switches stances to take some of the burden off the kicking damage, and he flicks a front kick at his man that gets him thrown to the floor. Osbourne chops at his foe a few more times, and he gest one off on the inside that draws a physical reaction out of Johnson. Johnson paws out a few jabs, and he has a head kick blocked. Osbourne turns his hips into an inside low kick, and Johnson changes stances after absorbing that flush. Osbourne looks to let his hands go, and Johnson weaves out of the way. The two hand-fight in front of one another, and Osbourne manages to get off a jab and check a kick. When Johnson throws one, Osbourne throws two or three back. Osbourne is making Johnson flinch every time, and Johnson starts talking to him as he switches stances taking these unblocked kicks. Osbourne catches a dipping Johnson with an uppercut, and he leans back when getting countered. Johnson bears down on his opponent with a few punches, and Osbourne catches his leg and pushes him back. Johnson leaps in the air and ends up landing a right hand instead of the flying knee while midair, and when he lands, he grabs “The Jamaican Sensation” and throws him down to the canvas with emphasis. Osbourne works his way back up quickly against the fence, and Johnson knees him several times on the way up before Osbourne breaks the grip and escapes. Osbourne scores a one-two, Johnson uses head movement to dodge the worst of the blows, and he has a low kick caught when responding. Both men land shots at the bell, and they hug it out when landing shots after it concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne

Round 2
The two measure one another in the early going of Round 2, pawing at one another with little on their strikes. Johnson powers forward in an attempt for a possible takedown, only to get thwarted. When he backs off, Johnson pushes off with a front kick that slams square into the cup. Osbourne goes down in a heap, writhing in pain as Hatley stops the clock to give him five minutes to recover – and Osbourne might need it. Johnson goes to his corner to have a seat, having apologized for the foul. Hatley informs him to be careful, and Johnson is not defiant and knows what happened. Osbourne crawls towards the commentary team and tells color commentator Michael Bisping that this was one of the worst groin shots he’s ever taken. Osbourne pulls himself up to his feet after 4:15 of recovery time, and he bounces and tries to get his wind back as he is still compromised. Osbourne signals that he is good to go with just 15 seconds left of the five-minute window, and they get right back to fighting. Osbourne gets back to kicking at the lead leg, and he turns to plant a side kick on the knee to hyperextend it. Johnson grimaces, and Osbourne attacks the same knee with the same kick to great success. Johnson looks to step in with an elbow, and he pushes off the chest with a side kick. Johnson dips forward to strike, and Osbourne intercepts him with two punches and catches a high kick that flies at him. Osbourne lets it go and releases a heavy body kick, and he strafes on the outside. Johnson gets up close and ties up his man, belting him with a clean elbow on the inside before pushing him up to the wall. Johnson considers a trip or level change, and Osbourne turns him around and drops down for a single of his own. Johnson stands him up and knees him a few times, as they jockey for position on the cage. Osbourne redoubles his effort for a single, and when he leans low, Johnson swirls around and takes his back standing up. Johnson slides down to the ground and ends up on his back, with his legs up high fishing for a triangle choke or some submission from that angle. A wild scramble leads to Osbourne tripping his foe back to the mat, and they both jump back up and resume striking. An elbow or two from Johnson up close opened up a cut on Osbourne’s face, and he pays it no mind. They throw caution to the wind in the waning seconds of the round, throwing punches and high kicks before Osbourne shoots for a takedown at the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne

Round 3
Before the last round begins, the two fighters touch gloves. When they begin, it is Johnson pushing the accelerator with several kicks low and high. Osbourne catches one such front kick and is unsuccessful to throw Johnson to the floor. Johnson pulls it back and fires off a high kick, slipping and landing on the canvas. Osbourne dives on top, but cannot gain dominant position before Johnson climbs back to his feet. The two clinch up as Johnson targets knees to the body, and Osbourne drops down for a level change but opts for a possible body lock to trip. “InnerG” protects himself and pushes them out to the middle of the cage, and he works on Osbourne’s lead leg. Johnson continues to land knees until a responsive knee from Osbourne breaks them apart. Johnson steps forward with a straight left hand, and he ducks to his side. Osbourne times a head kick that very nearly takes him out, but Johnson moves just enough to take the full sting out of it. Johnson jabs his way in, frustrating Osbourne until Osbourne shoots for a naked takedown. Johnson snatches up a guillotine choke on the way down, and he lets it go so that he can muscle his way back to his feet. Osbourne gets one leg around the side to try to take the back standing, but there is nothing to it as Johnson pushes off with 90 seconds to spare. A spent Johnson meanders forward, hands down, taking punches until Osbourne grabs him and puts him on the mat. Johnson’s guillotine defensive reaction is less strong this time, and he lets it go so that he can wall-walk rather than spend time on his seat. Osbourne steps back to knee the body and comes up short with a left hand, and he ducks a punch to pursue a takedown. Johnson sprawls and jumps around to take the back, but Osbourne just stands back up. They both stand up, and decide it’s time to empty their gas tanks with one final slugfest. They both smack one another around, but ultimately reach the final bell. Judges could have their hands full with this one, depending on how the last two close rounds were scored.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne (30-27 Osbourne)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne (30-27 Osbourne)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Osbourne (30-27 Osbourne)

The Official Result
Ode Osbourne def. Charles Johnson via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Johnson. He highlights that Johnson has become a more aggressive fighter since his loss to Muhammad Mokaev, and that Osbourne is a tricky but fragile fighter who often loses by getting knocked out. He notes that Johnson is a big flyweight with good range and durability, and that Osbourne's style of gambling with strikes makes him vulnerable.

"I hope this is another impressive one. And then we get to see Charles Johnson getting tested for contention very soon."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Zane picks Johnson, noting that Johnson has added an aggressive mindset to his already solid technical skills. He believes Johnson will knock Osbourne out, as Osbourne is not very durable and tends to get cracked when his gambles don't pay off. He also notes that Johnson is a big flyweight who is tough to hit clean and has never been knocked out.

"If he can be the same kind of fighter against Oda Osborne, he's gonna knock Oda Osborne out."
Alibi Idiris - Fight History
NC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ode' Osbourne 0 32 of 90 35% 48 of 107 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:58
Alibi Idiris 0 30 of 75 40% 62 of 117 5 of 15 33% 0 0 6:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ode' Osbourne 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alibi Idiris 0 12 of 30 40% 19 of 37 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:00
2 Ode' Osbourne 0 14 of 33 42% 15 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alibi Idiris 0 7 of 23 30% 19 of 41 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:15
3 Ode' Osbourne 0 10 of 31 32% 25 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:58
Alibi Idiris 0 11 of 22 50% 24 of 39 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ode' Osbourne 32 of 90 35% 21 of 74 11 of 15 0 of 1 27 of 84 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alibi Idiris 30 of 75 40% 22 of 58 1 of 5 7 of 12 22 of 64 2 of 4 6 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ode' Osbourne 8 of 26 30% 6 of 23 2 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alibi Idiris 12 of 30 40% 8 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 7 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Ode' Osbourne 14 of 33 42% 7 of 23 7 of 10 0 of 0 11 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0
Alibi Idiris 7 of 23 30% 5 of 17 0 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 18 1 of 2 3 of 3
3 Ode' Osbourne 10 of 31 32% 8 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 1 8 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alibi Idiris 11 of 22 50% 9 of 18 1 of 2 1 of 2 7 of 17 1 of 2 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alibi Idiris vs. Ode Osbourne

Round 1
Dan Miragliotta is the referee. Idiris opens with an inside low kick and then shoots for a takedown. Osbourne shucks him aside. Idiris leaps in with a right and it sits Osbourne down. The flyweights are back to it and Idiris lands another impactful right. Osbourne kicks the body. Idiris lands a leg kick and drives Osbourne into the fence. Idiris goes from a foot stomp to a shoulder strike. They move off the fence and Idiris trips Osbourne down. Idiris is inside his foe’s full guard. Osbourne creates space with his guard momentarily, but Idiris dives right back into top position. Idiris advances to side half guard. Osbourne stands but Idiris is attached to his back. Osbourne is able to free himself, and he counters a leaping Idiris nicely. Idiris steps in and lands another big right. A 1-2 lands for Osbourne and he eludes a takedown attempt. Osbourne catches Idiris with a right hook. Idiris moves in an lands an upward elbow.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Idiris
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Idiris
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Idiris

Round 2
Osbourne pressures early and connects with a combination followed by a body kick. Idiris shoots and Osbourne defends and breaks form the clinch. Idiris absorbs a couple body shots from Osbourne, who sprawls on a takedown. Idiris lands a leg kick. Osbourne lines up a left hand. Idiris lunges in with a right. Idiris grabs a hold of a leg and takes Osbourne down near the fence. Idiris is looking to work his way to the back against the cage. Idiris softens him with punches, but Osbourne turns. Now Idiris is in half guard, flat on his back. Osbourne stands and lands a couple knees before the break. Idiris lands a glancing head kick. Osbourne answers with a 1-2. A counter right lands for Idiris, who shoots for a takedown against the fence. Osbourne knees the body as he defends. Idiris nonetheless powers Osbourne to the mat with a body lock takedown. Idiris drops some heavy elbows from above, then switches to hammerfists as Osbourne scrambles. Idiris unloads with a couple more shots as they stand.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Idiris
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Idiris
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Idiris

Round 3
Idiris follows a body kick with a combination. Osbourne throws a kick that Idiris catches, and he dumps his foe to the mat. Idiris drops a heavy elbow from inside guard. Osbourne scrambles up and creates space, landing a combination. A left backs up Idiris temporarily. Osbourne partially lands a high kick. A stiff jab hits the mark for Osbourne. Osbourne ducks under a punch for a takedown but Idiris defends without issue. Idiris loads up and lands a big left. Idiris turns the corner and grounds Osbourne about halfway through the frame. Osbourne reverses into top position. Idiris is still throwing strikes from his back. Idiris is looking to turn this into a takedown. While that doesn’t happen, Idiris works his way back up and goes on the attack. He fires punches and shoves Osbourne back into the fence. From the clinch, Idiris lands a knee late, and he’ll end the fight in control.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Idiris (30-27 Idiris)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Idiris (30-27 Idiris)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Idiris (30-27 Idiris)

The Official Result
Alibi Idiris def. Ode Osbourne via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Angelo picks Ode' Osbourne, despite his poor takedown defense, because Alibi Idiris prefers to strike rather than wrestle. He believes Osbourne's superior striking and power will dominate if Idiris doesn't exploit the takedown weakness. He expresses frustration with Osbourne's lack of improvement in takedown defense.

"I'm going to pick Ode."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Alibi Idiris

Big Brady picks Alibi Idiris to defeat Ode' Osbourne, citing Osbourne's tendency to fade after a round and a half. He notes Osbourne is dangerous early but has poor cardio and suspect submission defense. He likes Idris's cardio, ability to mix in takedowns, and believes he can hurt Osbourne on the feet. He predicts a second-round knockout for Idris, though he acknowledges a submission is possible.

Alibi Idiris by second-round knockout
"I like Idris here. I think he's going to put a pace on Ode. ... give me Adeyris to win this fight. I'll say second round knockout for Aliebi Adeyris."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Cody thinks Osbourne's experience and reach advantage will be key. He notes Idiris looked poor against Joseph Morales and questions his heart. He expects Osbourne to edge a decision or get a late finish.

"OD Osborne wins more often than not to cover the plus money price tag. So, I'm going to take it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alibi Idiris

Connor takes a flyer on Idiris, noting that the style matchup is different from the Morales fight—Idiris will get to strike with Osbourne, which suits him better. He points out Idiris has actual pocket fighting feel and Osbourne is tense at range. However, he acknowledges Idiris may still not be ready.

"I might even take i'll take a flyer on a dearest. I think... at the very least I think a dearest should be regarded as a live dog against a fellow striker"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alibi Idiris

James picks Alibi Idiris to win by finish, likely submission, citing Osbourne's struggles with grappling. He notes that Idiris trains with Asu Almabayev, who dominated Osbourne with takedowns and submissions. James believes Idiris will mix in grappling and eventually submit or ground-and-pound Osbourne.

"I'm going to pick Idris in this fight. I'm going to pick him to win via finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alibi Idiris

Idiris is the better grappler and wrestler, and he should have a cardio advantage. Osbourne has power but fades after the first round and struggles with grappling. Idiris can survive the first round and then dominate with takedowns and control in the later rounds. The line has moved due to Osbourne's recent performance, but Idiris should win a decision.

"So once again, I'm going to go Idris and Idris by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Paul agrees, citing Osbourne's five-inch reach advantage and experience against tougher competition. He thinks Idiris is unproven and that Osbourne's speed and length will cause problems. He expects Osbourne to win.

"Just so much more experience that if you put a slight even slight plus money next to OD's name, I'm going to have to click it as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alibi Idiris

The MMA Guru picks Alibi Idiris, believing his grappling will be the difference. He notes that Idiris is well-rounded with good kicks, boxing, and grappling, and that Osbourne can be held down by grapplers. He references Idiris' fight with Vince Morales and thinks he can keep Osbourne on the ground.

"I'm going to take Al Iaquinta. ... I think he's going to beat Ode Osbourne and I do think his grappling is going to be the difference."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Zane picks Osbourne, believing Idiris is not ready for a veteran like Osbourne. He notes that Idiris gassed quickly against Morales and was overwhelmed by being the nail. Zane thinks Osbourne can make Idiris the nail for a round and a half, and Idiris won't handle it.

"I still think ode osborn can make him the nail for a round and a half at which point I just don't think that idiris is ready for that"
LOSS vs Joseph Morales
Submission R2 3:04 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joseph Morales 0 28 of 56 50% 50 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:04
Alibi Idiris 0 29 of 63 46% 44 of 86 2 of 5 40% 2 0 3:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joseph Morales 0 18 of 27 66% 37 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
Alibi Idiris 0 10 of 24 41% 19 of 40 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:55
2 Joseph Morales 0 10 of 29 34% 13 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:41
Alibi Idiris 0 19 of 39 48% 25 of 46 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joseph Morales 28 of 56 50% 9 of 35 17 of 19 2 of 2 22 of 48 6 of 8 0 of 0
Alibi Idiris 29 of 63 46% 15 of 44 13 of 18 1 of 1 18 of 47 9 of 12 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joseph Morales 18 of 27 66% 6 of 15 10 of 10 2 of 2 13 of 21 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alibi Idiris 10 of 24 41% 7 of 18 3 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 16 6 of 7 0 of 1
2 Joseph Morales 10 of 29 34% 3 of 20 7 of 9 0 of 0 9 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alibi Idiris 19 of 39 48% 8 of 26 10 of 12 1 of 1 14 of 31 3 of 5 2 of 3
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Alibi Idiris

The host considers Idiris the best flyweight on the show, praising his striking and grappling. He expects Idiris to have Morales covered everywhere and predicts a finish within two rounds.

finish within two rounds
"I think Idris was the best flyweight on the uh the show bar none. Very good striker, very good grappler, and I think he has Morz covered pretty much everywhere, and I think that will lead to him finding a …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alibi Idiris

The Guru picks Alibi Idiris to beat Joseph Morales. He thought Morales looked mediocre in his last fight on The Ultimate Fighter and believes he robbed his opponent. The Guru sees Idiris as a dynamic fighter with finishing ability, similar to Asu Almabaev, and thinks he will seize his opportunity to enter the UFC.

"I'm going to go over Libby Idris over Joseph Morales. ... I think he's going to seize it with both hands and take out Joseph Morales on the early prelims."
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Angelo picks Ode' Osbourne, despite his poor takedown defense, because Alibi Idiris prefers to strike rather than wrestle. He believes Osbourne's superior striking and power will dominate if Idiris doesn't exploit the takedown weakness. He expresses frustration with Osbourne's lack of improvement in takedown defense.

"I'm going to pick Ode."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Alibi Idiris

Big Brady picks Alibi Idiris to defeat Ode' Osbourne, citing Osbourne's tendency to fade after a round and a half. He notes Osbourne is dangerous early but has poor cardio and suspect submission defense. He likes Idris's cardio, ability to mix in takedowns, and believes he can hurt Osbourne on the feet. He predicts a second-round knockout for Idris, though he acknowledges a submission is possible.

Alibi Idiris by second-round knockout
"I like Idris here. I think he's going to put a pace on Ode. ... give me Adeyris to win this fight. I'll say second round knockout for Aliebi Adeyris."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Cody thinks Osbourne's experience and reach advantage will be key. He notes Idiris looked poor against Joseph Morales and questions his heart. He expects Osbourne to edge a decision or get a late finish.

"OD Osborne wins more often than not to cover the plus money price tag. So, I'm going to take it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alibi Idiris

Connor takes a flyer on Idiris, noting that the style matchup is different from the Morales fight—Idiris will get to strike with Osbourne, which suits him better. He points out Idiris has actual pocket fighting feel and Osbourne is tense at range. However, he acknowledges Idiris may still not be ready.

"I might even take i'll take a flyer on a dearest. I think... at the very least I think a dearest should be regarded as a live dog against a fellow striker"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alibi Idiris

James picks Alibi Idiris to win by finish, likely submission, citing Osbourne's struggles with grappling. He notes that Idiris trains with Asu Almabayev, who dominated Osbourne with takedowns and submissions. James believes Idiris will mix in grappling and eventually submit or ground-and-pound Osbourne.

"I'm going to pick Idris in this fight. I'm going to pick him to win via finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alibi Idiris

Idiris is the better grappler and wrestler, and he should have a cardio advantage. Osbourne has power but fades after the first round and struggles with grappling. Idiris can survive the first round and then dominate with takedowns and control in the later rounds. The line has moved due to Osbourne's recent performance, but Idiris should win a decision.

"So once again, I'm going to go Idris and Idris by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Paul agrees, citing Osbourne's five-inch reach advantage and experience against tougher competition. He thinks Idiris is unproven and that Osbourne's speed and length will cause problems. He expects Osbourne to win.

"Just so much more experience that if you put a slight even slight plus money next to OD's name, I'm going to have to click it as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alibi Idiris

The MMA Guru picks Alibi Idiris, believing his grappling will be the difference. He notes that Idiris is well-rounded with good kicks, boxing, and grappling, and that Osbourne can be held down by grapplers. He references Idiris' fight with Vince Morales and thinks he can keep Osbourne on the ground.

"I'm going to take Al Iaquinta. ... I think he's going to beat Ode Osbourne and I do think his grappling is going to be the difference."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Zane picks Osbourne, believing Idiris is not ready for a veteran like Osbourne. He notes that Idiris gassed quickly against Morales and was overwhelmed by being the nail. Zane thinks Osbourne can make Idiris the nail for a round and a half, and Idiris won't handle it.

"I still think ode osborn can make him the nail for a round and a half at which point I just don't think that idiris is ready for that"