UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 11"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 33
Height 6' 1"
Reach 71"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Geoff Neal
5.02 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
5.5 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
0.54 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
87.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Uroš Medić
5.59 SLpM
60.0% Str. Acc.
3.42 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.34 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Geoff Neal - Fight History
LOSS vs Uroš Medić
KO R1 1:19 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uroš Medić 1 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uroš Medić 1 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 3 of 10 30% 1 of 6 1 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uroš Medić 10 of 19 52% 4 of 10 6 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 3 of 10 30% 1 of 6 1 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uroš Medić 10 of 19 52% 4 of 10 6 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Angelo picks Geoff Neal despite recent knockout loss, citing his overall experience and well-rounded skill set. He acknowledges Uroš Medić's power and finishing ability but notes Medić's questionable chin. He is hesitant because Neal is 35 and coming off a KO, but believes Neal is the better fighter.

"Geoff Neal's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to defeat Uroš Medić, citing Medić's suspect chin and Neal's heavy hands. He notes that Medić has been dropped by lesser punchers like Gilbert Urbina, while Neal hits like a truck. He predicts a first-round knockout, possibly requiring a stretcher for Medić. He acknowledges Neal was knocked out in his last fight but calls that a fluke spinning elbow that would KO most of the division.

Geoff Neal by first-round knockout
"I think Geoff Neal's going to hit Medich very hard and I'm just not sure Medich is going to be able to take it. I got to go Geoff Neal here to win and I'm going to take Geoff Neal …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Cody buys into Neal's sobriety narrative and thinks this is his easiest fight in a while. He notes Medić is an under machine who either finishes or gets finished, and expects Neal to win by KO early. He recommends under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds
"Neil's the pick for me, but give me unders. Fight doesn't go to decision as parlay pieces."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Connor picks Neal confidently, stating that Medić is a glass cannon who gets hurt easily and sells out on his shots, leaving him vulnerable to counters. He notes that Neal has been tested against much better competition and has always been competitive, while Medić's wins have aged poorly. He believes Neal's composure and athleticism will be too much for Medić.

Connor thinks the odds should be more like -400; Neal opened -180, now -212; Medić opened +155, now +182
"I'm going to be real honest. I think this should be like your plus minus 400 odds kind of fight."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)

The host rules out betting on Neal due to red flags from an interview where Neal discussed past issues with drugs, alcohol, and diet, making him unreliable at -225. He is tempted by Medic as a +178 underdog, noting Medic's dynamic striking and power, but passes because Medic has slowed in past fights and Neal has excellent cardio. He concludes it's an easy pass on both sides.

Neal's lifestyle red flags; Medic's cardio concerns
"There is no [__] way that anyone with a brain can bet Jeff Neil after he has literally told you his diet might not be the best and he has issues with drugs slash alcohol."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

James picks Geoff Neal to win by first-round KO, citing Neal's experience against elite competition and the step down in competition for Medic. He notes that Medic is volatile and prone to getting knocked out early, and that Neal's power and boxing should be enough to finish him. James also likes the under 1.5 rounds and doesn't go to decision props.

under 1.5 rounds at -175, doesn't go to decision
"I will pick Jeff Neil to get it done via KO in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Neal is a crafty striker with good power and range management, and he has fought tougher competition. Medic is a Muay Thai specialist but has durability issues and poor grappling defense. Neal should be able to land a big shot and finish Medic, likely in the first round. The line is fair given Neal's experience and home crowd.

"I think Neil wins pretty easily here and I think he gets the knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Paul thinks Neal's step up in competition is significant and that Medić's chin is suspect. He notes Neal has fought top welterweights and held his own, while Medić has been knocked out by lesser opponents. He expects Neal to win by KO, possibly in the first round.

Neal by KO -133
"Neil Neil KO minus 133 any round minus 133. Yeah, looks like the way to go."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Geoff Neal, despite concerns about his chin and motivation after a KO loss. He believes Medić makes mistakes and is explosive but can be caught coming in. He predicts Neal will find a way to put Medić away in round two after Medić expends his energy.

TKO round two
"I'm going to go with Geoff Neal by TKO round two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Zane agrees with Connor, calling Medić a 'one hitter quitter' who is extremely vulnerable on the counter. He notes that Medić has no defense and gets hurt easily, even in fights he wins. He believes Neal is significantly better in the pocket and should be able to weather Medić's early power and then take over.

"I think Jeff Neil is significantly better and more composed in the pocket than Medic. If Jeff Neil doesn't absolutely dust rose Medic, then that'll be a huge shock."
LOSS vs Carlos Prates
KO R1 4:59 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 25 of 49 51% 26 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Carlos Prates 1 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 25 of 49 51% 26 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Carlos Prates 1 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 25 of 49 51% 16 of 38 4 of 6 5 of 5 23 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 32 of 60 53% 17 of 45 8 of 8 7 of 7 32 of 58 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 25 of 49 51% 16 of 38 4 of 6 5 of 5 23 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 32 of 60 53% 17 of 45 8 of 8 7 of 7 32 of 58 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-250), Neal (+205)

Round 1
Welcome to what many are considering the “just bleed” matchup of the evening. Two welterweight flamethrowers will throw down mightily, and referee Jason Herzog gets the honor of handling it personally. Fortis MMA athlete Neal (16-6, 8-4 UFC) and Fighting Nerds representative Prates (21-7, 4-1 UFC) meet with 26 knockouts across their 37 total victories, and one more could be coming soon. Before they try to lop one another’s head off, Herzog has to usher them back to their corners. Despite that, they bump their fists together cordially.
Prates bounces up and down in the center of the Octagon, and Neal leads off with an inside calf kick. Prates jabs him back, and Neal kicks to the same spot before going high. Neal crowds a kicking Prates but goes not let his hands go, instead resetting to score a short but powerful left hook. Prates spins with a back kick to the stomach and kicks him in the front leg when planting, and Neal bull-rushes him. Prates tries for a jump knee, and Neal catches it and fires back with his right hand a few times. Prates reclaims his limb and resets, where he goes high with punches. Neal jabs him to the body and makes Prates back off with long punches, while Prates scores a few hard calf kicks. Prates darts in and out with a jab, and Neal crowds him with punches before Prates circles all the way around the cage. Prates sinks a leg kick home, and he is out of the way before Neal can get to him.
Both men connect with single left hands before bailing, and Prates calms himself down and looses two punches down the middle along with a step-in knee. Neal fires back with a vengeance, landing at least partially on his opponent and kicking him in the chest. Neal jacks Prates in the jaw with a left hand, and Prates responds with a crisp left to the body and then a knee to the same spot. Some swelling develops under Neal’s left eye, and Prates notices it and aims a spinning wheel kick at it. The kick pops off the guard, but Prates’ jab finds its target. Neal does not seem concerned, cracking Prates on the way in. Prates gathers a head of steam and loose a one-two, a body kick, a knee, two more punches and a jumping knee in one heck of a combination. Neal grabs him at the end of it to turn him to the cage, and Prates makes fun of him for trying to wrestle. Neal lets him go, and Prates blasts him with punches and chases him around the cage with an elbow strike. With seconds left on the clock, the Brazilian spins like a top and demolishes Neal with a spinning back elbow. The sound of the blow echoes through the United Center, and blood sprays from an open wound on the side of his temple. Herzog waves the fight off with a second to go on the clock, and Prates has bounced back from a tough loss with a spectacular knockout of an insanely durable Neal. On his post-fight interview, Prates gives it up for the Fighting Nerds team, remarks that he will be celebrating his birthday tomorrow, asks for a fight in Rio de Janeiro in October along with a post-fight bonus—which UFC chief Dana White grants both immediately—and pitches that the UFC sign up his training partner, LFA flyweight champ Marcos Degli.

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Geoff Neal R1 4:59 via KO (Spinning Back Elbow)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Angelo thinks Prates is the better striker with power, accuracy, and cardio, and expects a striking match. He notes Neal may shoot takedowns but Prates should be ready. He hopes for a showcase performance from Prates to build him back up after his loss to Ian Garry.

"Carlos should win here. I think he's the better striker. There should be mostly striking going on here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by first-round knockout. He notes Prates has long reach, power, and fast combinations, and when he gets going he is very dangerous. He worries about Prates' slow starts but thinks Neal will force him to engage. He mentions Prates' brutal knockouts of Trevin Giles and others. He doesn't love the moneyline but thinks Prates can knock out Neal, who has a solid chin but can be hit.

Prates by KO, round 1
"I'm going to take Pches to win this fight. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Connor picks Prates, but with hesitation, acknowledging that Prates' game is limited and not built for elite competition, as seen in the Ian Garry fight. He notes that Neal is durable and will make it tough, but Prates' pressure and dangerous striking could overwhelm Neal, who tends to let opponents dictate the fight. Connor hopes Prates has learned from the Garry fight and can implement adjustments.

Neal opened at +330, currently +190; Prates opened at -400, currently -225
"I'm going to pick Prates just cause I'm not going to fall off the bandwagon. And I think this is a winnable fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

The host views Neal as underrated and tough, and believes his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land big shots on Prates throughout the fight. He expects Neal to win on the scorecards as the underdog.

"I think the speed and explosivity of Neil will allow him to land big shots on Proches throughout the 15 minutes here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

The Guru picks Carlos Prates to finish Geoff Neal, citing Prates' lateral movement and ability to find outside foot position. He notes that Neal struggles against fighters who move side-to-side, as seen in his fight with Neil Magny. The Guru believes Prates will land knees up the middle and finish Neal in the late first or second round. He also mentions that Prates nearly finished Ian Garry and has shown finishing ability against stationary opponents.

Late first round or second round finish; knees up the middle
"I think we're going to see this get a little bit scrappy. And I actually think we're going to see this end up being a Carlos Pres late first round or second round finish over Jeff Neil."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Zane is tempted to pick Neal, noting that Neal is durable, fast, and has a limited but effective game against elite opponents. He points out that Prates struggles with complex problems and has never faced a fellow southpaw. Zane believes Neal could pressure Prates and win rounds with his boxing and durability, but he is not fully confident due to Neal's tendency to let opponents dictate the fight.

Neal opened at +330, currently +190; Prates opened at -400, currently -225
"I'm tempted to take Geoff Neal. I think there's a bad version of this fight where Jeff Neil still makes it tough and might just take the rounds."
CANCEL vs Carlos Prates
TKO (knee injury) R1 1:30 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Angelo picks Geoff Neal but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Neal is younger, has good takedown defense and hands, and should win if the fight stays standing. However, he acknowledges RDA could get takedowns and grind out a decision. He will leave this fight alone due to the risk.

Will leave this fight alone; no bet.
"I think Jeff Neil wins... but I just don't have the nuts to bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Big Brady strongly favors Neal, calling it a bad matchup for RDA. He notes that RDA struggles at welterweight against bigger guys and that Neal has elite takedown defense (87%). He believes Neal is the much better striker with more power and that RDA won't be able to take him down. He predicts Neal wins by decision, stuffing takedowns and doing better work on the feet.

"give me Jeff Neil here I think he wins this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody leans toward Rafael dos Anjos as an underdog, noting that RDA's wrestling and cardio could neutralize Neal's striking. He points out that Neal has struggled against wrestlers like Neil Magny, and that RDA's takedown-heavy approach could frustrate Neal. However, Cody is hesitant because RDA is 40 and has lost to superior grapplers. He suggests a small play or pass.

"I feel like I'm leaning Rd but I feel like that's also a bad pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Connor picks Neal, agreeing that RDA at welterweight is not the same bully. He notes that RDA's game relies on being a physical bully, which he can't do at welterweight, and that Neal is capable of putting together moments of offense that win rounds. Connor also mentions that RDA is almost 40 and has a lot of mileage.

"And that is kind of my core read here against Jeff Neil is that RDA might have a lot of success running his kind of game against Jeff Neil. But if I have to think who is capable of putting …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Geoff Neal to win, citing significant advantages in size, speed, and youth. He notes that Neal has faced much larger opponents recently and that RDA is a smaller fighter who may struggle with Neal's reach and takedown defense. Vreeland acknowledges Neal's inconsistency but believes this is a favorable matchup.

"give me Jeff me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Neal, citing his size, youth, and recent competition against top welterweights. He notes that RDA's wrestling has dropped off significantly, giving up 19 takedowns in his last two fights. Vreeland believes Neal's speed and game plan will be too much for the aging RDA.

"give me the much bigger much younger hands of Steel Jeff Neil"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Jeff Fox also picks Neal, emphasizing RDA's declining wrestling. He notes that Neal has sneaky good wrestling and that RDA's takedown defense has worsened. Fox expects Neal to be faster on the feet and implement a better game plan.

higher than 64.5 significant strikes for Neal (Underdog fantasy pick)
"Jeff Neil gonna be faster on the feet going to put together a better game plan here uh I'll take him in this one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Welterweight is not the best weight class for dos Anjos, and Neal should stop his takedowns and utilize his striking advantage. It wouldn't surprise me if Neal knocks dos Anjos out, but I lean with Neal winning on the scorecards.

Neal wins by decision (lean); possible knockout
"ultimately lean with Neil winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Paul picks Geoff Neal, believing his reach and boxing will keep the fight standing. He notes that RDA's wrestling has not been as effective at welterweight against bigger opponents. Paul thinks Neal can stuff takedowns and use his length to outpoint RDA. He is not highly confident but leans Neal.

"I will not be getting to RDA"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

The Guru picks Geoff Neal by TKO in the second round, arguing that Rafael dos Anjos at 39 is outmatched physically. He notes Neal's size, power, and takedown defense (citing the Belal Muhammad fight) will be too much for RDA. He believes RDA's only path is to brawl in the pocket, which favors Neal. The Guru predicts a vicious finish, possibly ending RDA's career.

TKO second round
"I'll say second round TKO for Geoff Neal potentially in the first though I can see a real nasty finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Geoff Neal

Zane clearly favored Neal, describing the fight as a 'sad days fight' for RDA. He noted that RDA's game of physical bullying and pressure doesn't work at welterweight because guys are too big and hit too hard. Zane pointed out that RDA got crushed by the first shot and blew out his knee, calling it an old man way to lose. He praised Neal's performance but remains skeptical about Neal's title prospects.

"jeff neil hafel dos angeles another real sad days fight um i don't i've never liked rda at welter weight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Zane picks Neal because RDA at welterweight is not the same relentless pressure fighter he was at lightweight; he's more reluctant to apply pressure and gets hit harder. Neal is a puncher who can keep his output up and win rounds, even if he gets stalled for one. Zane notes that RDA's wrestling is deteriorating and he's almost 40.

"So yeah, take it, Neil. Same. But, uh, it's a good fight. Like it is, it is a fight where if RDA can get Neil down, he might just be able to like, to sub him out, you know, he's …"
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ian Machado Garry 0 46 of 89 51% 57 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:45
Geoff Neal 0 67 of 135 49% 80 of 148 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ian Machado Garry 0 18 of 27 66% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:10
Geoff Neal 0 20 of 38 52% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Ian Machado Garry 0 17 of 34 50% 23 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:20
Geoff Neal 0 23 of 43 53% 31 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Ian Machado Garry 0 11 of 28 39% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:15
Geoff Neal 0 24 of 54 44% 27 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ian Machado Garry 46 of 89 51% 25 of 64 10 of 13 11 of 12 38 of 79 8 of 10 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 67 of 135 49% 39 of 96 18 of 27 10 of 12 65 of 133 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ian Machado Garry 18 of 27 66% 11 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 5 16 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 20 of 38 52% 10 of 24 7 of 10 3 of 4 20 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ian Machado Garry 17 of 34 50% 10 of 24 4 of 6 3 of 4 11 of 26 6 of 8 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 23 of 43 53% 16 of 34 5 of 7 2 of 2 22 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ian Machado Garry 11 of 28 39% 4 of 20 4 of 5 3 of 3 11 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 24 of 54 44% 13 of 38 6 of 10 5 of 6 23 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Angelo picks Ian Garry, citing his superior striking, hand speed, and footwork. He notes Garry is hittable but believes he can control range and avoid Neal's power. He plans to bet Geoff Neal inside the distance decision no action, as Neal is durable and has finishing upside. He is rooting for Neal but thinks Garry wins.

Geoff Neal wins inside distance (decision no action)
"I do think Ian Gary wins though but he's not going to be anywhere near my safety parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal as a dog to win by second-round knockout. He notes Gary's poor striking defense (53%) and history of getting dropped, while Neal has heavy hands (nicknamed 'Hands of Steel'). He acknowledges Gary is likely winning minutes but believes Neal's power gives him a live chance to land a big shot. He mentions Neal's past health issues but thinks if he's healthy, he can knock Gary out.

Neal by KO, round 2
"I'm actually G to take Jeff Neil here as a dog I'm gonna take Jeff Neil to to land a big shot and knock out and Gary here I'll say he knocks him out in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Cody picks Garry, emphasizing his speed and range management. He notes Neal is a one-dimensional boxer who struggles with lateral movement, as seen against Wonderboy. He expects Garry to use his jab and footwork to outpoint Neal, though he acknowledges Neal's power. He dislikes Garry's persona but believes he wins on volume.

"I think he wins more often than none on volume so could he clip Neil and put him away yeah but I think probably a decision stay to the outside pitter patter stay smart..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Daniel Vreeland picks Ian Machado Garry, citing his cleaner technical striking, better distance management, and superior striking defense. He notes Garry's leg kick heavy game plan against Magny (43/43 leg kicks) and believes Neal's hot-and-cold form since his near-death experience makes him unreliable. He also mentions Garry's takedown defense and five-round experience.

"I'm picking Ian Gary here... I think he's overall a cleaner technical striker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Neal is a deadly combination striker with power. He can close the pocket and exchange with Garry, opening a knockout opportunity. Garry relies on length and reach, but Neal's experience and technical advantages lead to a second-round KO.

"I think he can pull go out there and pull off the upset with a second round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Paul picks Garry despite wanting him to lose due to his persona. He notes Garry's length, technical striking, and ability to stay at range. He thinks Neal is one-dimensional and struggles with mobile strikers, as seen in the Wonderboy fight. He expects Garry to outpoint Neal with volume and lateral movement, though he acknowledges Neal's power threat.

"the pick's going to be Gary I don't I I I want him to lose though so I I know you're not supposed to let your emotions get in the way of money but it's like I would feel dirty …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

The MMA Guru picks Geoff Neal, citing Ian Garry's vulnerability to being caught on the chin and his lack of KO power in the UFC. He notes Garry's short reach for his height and his recent camp disruptions. He believes Neal's high guard and toughness will allow him to survive and land hooks, predicting a late round one or round two KO.

"I'm going Jeff Neal... you can't get dropped by Tekashi Sato and expect me not to pick Jeff Neal to finish you off."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:17 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 69 of 145 47% 69 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Geoff Neal 0 113 of 179 63% 120 of 186 0 of 4 0% 1 0 3:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Geoff Neal 0 43 of 64 67% 46 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 20 of 57 35% 20 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Geoff Neal 0 35 of 70 50% 35 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Geoff Neal 0 35 of 45 77% 39 of 49 0 of 2 0% 1 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 69 of 145 47% 63 of 136 4 of 6 2 of 3 57 of 129 12 of 16 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 113 of 179 63% 69 of 130 39 of 44 5 of 5 74 of 131 39 of 48 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 29 of 54 53% 27 of 51 1 of 1 1 of 2 23 of 47 6 of 7 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 43 of 64 67% 26 of 44 17 of 20 0 of 0 32 of 50 11 of 14 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 20 of 57 35% 18 of 53 1 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 35 of 70 50% 20 of 54 13 of 14 2 of 2 25 of 56 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 20 of 34 58% 18 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 15 of 27 5 of 7 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 35 of 45 77% 23 of 32 9 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 25 18 of 20 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling him an absolute savage who can submit, knock out, or outwrestle opponents. He notes that Rakhmonov is on a different level and should get the job done. Angelo thinks -500 is fine for parlays.

"I love shaft cat here I think he's on an entirely different level I think he does what he wants I think he gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, citing his size, power, and submission game. He notes Neal has good takedown defense but was taken down by Neil Magny, and Rakhmonov is a better wrestler. He predicts a second-round submission for Rakhmonov, but acknowledges if the fight stays standing, it gets interesting.

second round submission
"I like shopkop by submission... I'll say second round submission win for shot rockmanov"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is high on Rakhmonov, calling him 'the truth' and praising his well-rounded game, clinch work, and finishing ability. He thinks Neal's power is a threat but that Rakhmonov's grappling and fight IQ will be too much. He expects Rakhmonov to win but is unsure if he finishes Neal.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov; considers inside the distance but not confident
"I think he's the truth and he's extremely well-rounded"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Connor picks Rakhmonov confidently, noting Neal's limited toolkit (left hand, left kick) and inability to adjust. He expects Rakhmonov to use his creativity and clinch work to overwhelm Neal, who will likely run into clinches where Rakhmonov can wrestle and land strikes. He acknowledges Neal's toughness and power but sees the matchup as stylistically poor for Neal.

Mentions Rakhmonov opened at -435, now -528; Neal +350 to +378.
"It's hard not to see Rakhmonov just sort of ending up in a winning position at some point."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jacob is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that his toughest test on paper was Neil Magny, whom he dominated. He believes Rakhmonov is too rangy and skilled for Geoff Neal, who relies on power. Jacob expects a first or second round finish.

first or second round finish
"I think it's a first or second second round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a pressure grappler with a 100% finish rate. Neal is a good striker but has struggled against pressure grapplers. Rakhmonov will take the fight to the ground and submit Neal. The fight doesn't go to decision.

fight doesn't go to decision, Rakhmonov by submission
"fight doesn't go to the decision is going to be my favorite spot for this matchup... I'm still going to end up going with the shot Cat Rock one outside to win this fight via submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul agrees with Cody that Rakhmonov is the truth and expects him to win. He notes Neal's takedown defense is good but thinks Rakhmonov is a different level. He likes the over 1.5 takedowns prop for Rakhmonov.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov (-155)
"I think shop costs the truth won't be backing Neil"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, despite noting the odds are too wide. He questions Neal's recent performances and believes Rakhmonov's wild style and grappling will be too much, though he acknowledges Neal's KO power.

Comments on odds being too wide
"I'm gonna go with shav cat rachmanov... I do not agree that he should be a six to one favorite here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Zane agrees, highlighting Neal's predictability and lack of adaptability. He notes Rakhmonov's willingness to experiment and clinch, and that Neal's straight-line entries will lead to clinches where Rakhmonov can dominate. He sees Neal's only path as an early knockout, but Rakhmonov's size and confidence make that unlikely.

"Neil will also lead himself to the clinch. He's going to get wrestled in the clinch."
WIN vs Vicente Luque
KO (punches) R3 2:01 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 97 of 203 47% 97 of 203 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 2 121 of 211 57% 125 of 215 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 30 of 80 37% 30 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 1 52 of 93 55% 53 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 Geoff Neal 0 51 of 91 56% 51 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 0 40 of 75 53% 43 of 78 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:40
3 Geoff Neal 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 1 29 of 43 67% 29 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 97 of 203 47% 56 of 156 26 of 31 15 of 16 91 of 195 6 of 8 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 121 of 211 57% 113 of 202 5 of 6 3 of 3 103 of 186 17 of 22 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 30 of 80 37% 20 of 67 8 of 10 2 of 3 29 of 79 1 of 1 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 52 of 93 55% 48 of 89 3 of 3 1 of 1 49 of 87 2 of 3 1 of 3
2 Geoff Neal 51 of 91 56% 28 of 68 15 of 15 8 of 8 46 of 85 5 of 6 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 40 of 75 53% 36 of 70 2 of 3 2 of 2 33 of 66 7 of 9 0 of 0
3 Geoff Neal 16 of 32 50% 8 of 21 3 of 6 5 of 5 16 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 29 of 43 67% 29 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0 21 of 33 8 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Angelo picks Vicente Luque, believing this will be a striking match since Geoff Neal rarely wrestles. He favors Luque's better striking differential, cleaner footwork, speed, and higher volume. He acknowledges Luque's grappling holes but doesn't think Neal will exploit them. He is pretty confident in Luque to get the win.

"strike for strike i like lucay to win not only does he have better striking differential but he's got cleaner footwork better speed and higher volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque, citing his durability, chin, and willingness to brawl. He notes that Geoff Neal has looked off in his last three fights and may not be the same killer he was earlier in his UFC run. He believes Luque's submission game is dangerous if the fight goes to the mat, and that Neal's takedown defense is good but he is unlikely to wrestle. He predicts a competitive decision win for Luque, though he acknowledges Neal's power and the possibility of a finish.

decision win prediction
"i think luke does win this one i'm going to say by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Cody also picks Luque, citing his volume, footwork, and ability to work the body and legs. He notes that Luque is hittable but durable, and that Neal hasn't knocked anyone out since Mike Perry three years ago. Cody believes Luque's sharpness and output will be too much for Neal, who has looked unmotivated in recent losses.

Luque by decision (suggested at +625)
"I'm going to take Luque as well... he's got excellent footwork... I gotta go with Luque by decision because I do think Jeff Neal's super durable."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Daniel Levi picks Geoff Neal as an underdog, believing the southpaw stance will neutralize Luque's calf kicks and open up liver kicks. He thinks Neal's speed and footwork can frustrate Luque, and if Neal is truly healthy again, he can win a decision or even score a knockout. Levi acknowledges Luque's power and finishing ability but likes the plus-155 price and sees this as a fight that could go either way.

Bet 2 units on Neal at +155; expects decision but open to KO
"I took the plus 155 odds on Jeff Neal I put two units on it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Paul picks Luque, noting that Luque has more ways to win and is historically durable. He mentions that Luque hasn't landed a takedown since 2017 but is a great grappler in scrambles. Paul thinks Luque wins about 65-70% of the time and will wait for a better price. He also notes that Neal has looked unmotivated in recent fights.

Luque by decision (suggested at +625)
"I like Vicente Luque... he's got more options more ways to win this fight... I think Luque wins probably around 65 70 percent."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

The MMA Guru picks Geoff Neal as an underdog by 29-28 decision. He thinks Luque takes too long to get going in three-rounders and Neal's power will earn respect. He believes Neal can keep range and avoid brawling, similar to how Randy Brown and Nico Price had success. He predicts Neal wins the first round clearly, edges the second, and survives the third.

"i'm gonna go with jeff neal... i think luke takes too long to get going in three-rounders and neil's got a power that will make luke respect him"
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 85 of 161 52% 86 of 162 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 91 of 229 39% 91 of 229 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 20 of 41 48% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 26 of 63 41% 26 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Geoff Neal 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:23
3 Geoff Neal 0 46 of 73 63% 46 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 39 of 93 41% 39 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 85 of 161 52% 73 of 145 5 of 9 7 of 7 85 of 161 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 91 of 229 39% 62 of 195 12 of 17 17 of 17 90 of 228 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 20 of 41 48% 13 of 33 2 of 3 5 of 5 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 26 of 63 41% 17 of 54 5 of 5 4 of 4 25 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Geoff Neal 19 of 47 40% 16 of 41 2 of 5 1 of 1 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 26 of 73 35% 15 of 61 4 of 5 7 of 7 26 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Geoff Neal 46 of 73 63% 44 of 71 1 of 1 1 of 1 46 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 39 of 93 41% 30 of 80 3 of 7 6 of 6 39 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to win by knockout, but with low confidence due to Neal's recent DUI and gun possession arrest. He notes that Neal has a power advantage and reach advantage over Ponzinibbio, who is 35 and coming off a layoff and a knockout loss. However, Neal's preparation is a major concern. Brady says if Neal shows up focused, he has a good chance, but he is not sure the fight will even happen.

Neal by knockout in round 1
"i'll take neil to get the win i think a lot of people are counting them out i definitely understand why but i don't take neil to get the knockout here in the first round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win a war of attrition. He notes that both fighters nearly died from medical issues, but Ponzinibbio looked better in his last fight against Miguel Baeza, shaking off rust. Levi questions whether Geoff Neal has recovered from his sepsis and heart failure, citing poor performances against Wonderboy and Neil Magny. He believes Ponzinibbio's jab, straight right, calf kicks, and takedown defense will be too much. Levi expects Ponzinibbio to be more aggressive and meaner.

"give me santiago ponzinibio to win a war of attrition here once again"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Geoff Neal

Neal is the more technical striker and will counter Ponzinibbio's aggressive pressure effectively. Ponzinibbio has defensive flaws and is hittable, especially against a counter-striker. Neal's straight right and speed should find the mark, and a knockout is possible. The underdog odds provide value.

by KO
"i'm going jeff neal again a couple contrarian picks compared to what i've been seeing out there recently but i feel decent about it here in jeff know especially at these underdog odds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, citing his experience, technical striking, and ability to pressure. He notes that Geoff Neal had a troubled training camp (jail time) and has shown vulnerability against pressure fighters. He predicts Ponzinibbio will win 30-27.

30-27 decision win
"i'm going to go with santiago ponzibio here over jeff neal um i was picking ponzinio anyway more experienced better technically on the feet"
Uroš Medić - Fight History
WIN vs Geoff Neal
KO R1 1:19 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uroš Medić 1 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uroš Medić 1 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 3 of 10 30% 1 of 6 1 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uroš Medić 10 of 19 52% 4 of 10 6 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 3 of 10 30% 1 of 6 1 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uroš Medić 10 of 19 52% 4 of 10 6 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Angelo picks Geoff Neal despite recent knockout loss, citing his overall experience and well-rounded skill set. He acknowledges Uroš Medić's power and finishing ability but notes Medić's questionable chin. He is hesitant because Neal is 35 and coming off a KO, but believes Neal is the better fighter.

"Geoff Neal's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to defeat Uroš Medić, citing Medić's suspect chin and Neal's heavy hands. He notes that Medić has been dropped by lesser punchers like Gilbert Urbina, while Neal hits like a truck. He predicts a first-round knockout, possibly requiring a stretcher for Medić. He acknowledges Neal was knocked out in his last fight but calls that a fluke spinning elbow that would KO most of the division.

Geoff Neal by first-round knockout
"I think Geoff Neal's going to hit Medich very hard and I'm just not sure Medich is going to be able to take it. I got to go Geoff Neal here to win and I'm going to take Geoff Neal …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Cody buys into Neal's sobriety narrative and thinks this is his easiest fight in a while. He notes Medić is an under machine who either finishes or gets finished, and expects Neal to win by KO early. He recommends under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds
"Neil's the pick for me, but give me unders. Fight doesn't go to decision as parlay pieces."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Connor picks Neal confidently, stating that Medić is a glass cannon who gets hurt easily and sells out on his shots, leaving him vulnerable to counters. He notes that Neal has been tested against much better competition and has always been competitive, while Medić's wins have aged poorly. He believes Neal's composure and athleticism will be too much for Medić.

Connor thinks the odds should be more like -400; Neal opened -180, now -212; Medić opened +155, now +182
"I'm going to be real honest. I think this should be like your plus minus 400 odds kind of fight."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)

The host rules out betting on Neal due to red flags from an interview where Neal discussed past issues with drugs, alcohol, and diet, making him unreliable at -225. He is tempted by Medic as a +178 underdog, noting Medic's dynamic striking and power, but passes because Medic has slowed in past fights and Neal has excellent cardio. He concludes it's an easy pass on both sides.

Neal's lifestyle red flags; Medic's cardio concerns
"There is no [__] way that anyone with a brain can bet Jeff Neil after he has literally told you his diet might not be the best and he has issues with drugs slash alcohol."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

James picks Geoff Neal to win by first-round KO, citing Neal's experience against elite competition and the step down in competition for Medic. He notes that Medic is volatile and prone to getting knocked out early, and that Neal's power and boxing should be enough to finish him. James also likes the under 1.5 rounds and doesn't go to decision props.

under 1.5 rounds at -175, doesn't go to decision
"I will pick Jeff Neil to get it done via KO in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Neal is a crafty striker with good power and range management, and he has fought tougher competition. Medic is a Muay Thai specialist but has durability issues and poor grappling defense. Neal should be able to land a big shot and finish Medic, likely in the first round. The line is fair given Neal's experience and home crowd.

"I think Neil wins pretty easily here and I think he gets the knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Paul thinks Neal's step up in competition is significant and that Medić's chin is suspect. He notes Neal has fought top welterweights and held his own, while Medić has been knocked out by lesser opponents. He expects Neal to win by KO, possibly in the first round.

Neal by KO -133
"Neil Neil KO minus 133 any round minus 133. Yeah, looks like the way to go."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Geoff Neal, despite concerns about his chin and motivation after a KO loss. He believes Medić makes mistakes and is explosive but can be caught coming in. He predicts Neal will find a way to put Medić away in round two after Medić expends his energy.

TKO round two
"I'm going to go with Geoff Neal by TKO round two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Zane agrees with Connor, calling Medić a 'one hitter quitter' who is extremely vulnerable on the counter. He notes that Medić has no defense and gets hurt easily, even in fights he wins. He believes Neal is significantly better in the pocket and should be able to weather Medić's early power and then take over.

"I think Jeff Neil is significantly better and more composed in the pocket than Medic. If Jeff Neil doesn't absolutely dust rose Medic, then that'll be a huge shock."
KO R1 1:03 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muslim Salikhov 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uroš Medić 1 8 of 13 61% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muslim Salikhov 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uroš Medić 1 8 of 13 61% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muslim Salikhov 2 of 5 40% 0 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uroš Medić 8 of 13 61% 5 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 1 5 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muslim Salikhov 2 of 5 40% 0 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uroš Medić 8 of 13 61% 5 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 1 5 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Uros Medic vs. Muslim Salikhov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Medic (-180); Salikhov (+150)

Round 1
If rankings and relevant pairings do not litter the lineup, at least the matchmakers have lined up a few bangers. At 41, Salikhov (22-5, 9-4 UFC) may be looking as good as ever, with three wins in a row including two knockouts making his twilight years quite something. He will have to contend with brick-fisted Serb Medic (11-3, 5-3 UFC), who has come from Alaska to train down in California at Kings MMA. The two welterweights will be joined in the Octagon by referee Kerry Hatley, who has already donned his proverbial hard hat, fully cognizant that this one could be a doozey. There is a touch of gloves to open things up.
Medic tries early to swat away Salikhov’s staging left hand, stomping his way forward to threaten with strikes to the lead knee. Both men lash out with blows at the same time, and they need some time before re-engaging. They kick simultaneously, with Medic putting a scare in the Dagestan native by going upstairs. Medic tosses one out with his other leg, wrapping it around the back of the Russian’s melon.
Salikhov has to back off, and Medic rifles off a straight left hand that puts Salikhov on his seat. Salikhov tries to scoot around to grab hold of the leg of “The Doctor,” but Medic slams him in the side of the head with his angry Alaskan fist a few times until Salikhov shells up.
Hatley sees that Salikhov has physically surrendered at that point and steps in to save the Russian from any further harm. That is two knockouts in a row for Medic right around one minute, as he iced Gilbert Urbina in August in 63 seconds. The 100% finish rate remains intact as well, as Medic calls for bigger opportunities in the future.

The Official Result
Uros Medic def. Muslim Salikhov R1 1:03 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Angelo picks Uros Medic because he is younger, faster, and more technical, but he is not confident. He notes that Muslim Salikhov hits extremely hard and has wrestling, making him a phenomenal underdog. He acknowledges that Medic was almost finished by Gilbert Urbina, which raises concerns about his chin.

"I'm going to pick the younger, faster, more technical striker, but damn, like this is a tough-ass fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

Big Brady has a hot take predicting Salikhov wins by spinning wheel kick knockout in the first round. He highlights Salikhov's patented spinning wheel kick, which he has used to knock out multiple opponents, including Carlos Leia. He questions Medić's durability, noting he got knocked down by Gilbert Urbina, which is a bad sign. He expects an early knockout.

spinning wheel kick knockout, first round, under 1.5 rounds
"I'm gonna go Salakov here. Salakov spinning old kick. First round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

Cody picks Salikhov, noting his power and counter-striking ability. He thinks Medić's aggressive, forward-moving style plays into Salikhov's hands, and that Salikhov will land a knockout early.

"It's a solo play for me as well."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

Lucrative James picks Muslim Salikhov despite acknowledging the volatility of the matchup. He notes Salikhov's higher level of competition and experience, as well as his recent training camp improvements. However, he admits both fighters have poor chins and heavy hands, making it a coin flip. He predicts Salikhov wins by knockout in round one, but also considers betting on the under or 'doesn't go to decision'.

KO in round 1
"I will pick Muslim Salikov for those reasons I just mentioned. I will pick him via knockout in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

The host expects a firecracker fight and loves the under 1.5 rounds. He believes Medic will snipe Salikhov from distance and win by knockout within five minutes.

Under 1.5 rounds, knockout
"I love the under one and a half in this fight, but I ultimately think it's going to be Medic from distance who ends up sniping Salakov and getting him out of there within five minutes."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

Paul also picks Salikhov, calling the fight a 'car crash' and expecting a knockout. He likes the plus money on the older fighter and thinks Medić's durability issues will be exposed.

"Give me the old man Salikov because he's plus money."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

The Guru picks Muslim Salikhov to win by first-round KO. He believes Uroš Medić is too easily hit and erratic, lunging in with punches, while Salikhov has powerful spinning attacks and counters. He expects Salikhov to catch Medić coming in and finish him early.

round 1 KO
"I'm going to go with Muslim Salakov getting this one done by KO victory in the first round."
KO R1 1:03 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Uroš Medić 1 5 of 9 55% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Gilbert Urbina 1 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Uroš Medić 1 5 of 9 55% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Gilbert Urbina 1 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Uroš Medić 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1
Gilbert Urbina 5 of 10 50% 3 of 7 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Uroš Medić 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1
Gilbert Urbina 5 of 10 50% 3 of 7 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Angelo picks Uroš Medić but hates the odds at -350. He notes Medić is a technical striker with 100% finish rate and killer instinct, but his takedown defense is low. Gilbert Urbina is a grappler with high output but poor striking defense. Angelo thinks Medić will win because strikers are having more success, but the odds are too wide for his liking.

Odds comment: hates the -350 line, thinks it's too wide.
"Uros Medic is going to be the pick, but I hate these odds. minus 350."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Big Brady is confident in Uroš Medić, citing his 100% finish rate and legitimate striking power. He criticizes Gilbert Urbina's chin, noting he was dropped multiple times by Tawn Gore and knocked out by Charles Raki. Brady believes Medić is a much better striker than Raki and will knock out Urbina early. He predicts a first-round knockout for Medić.

first round knockout
"I like Medic here. I think he's knocking out Erbena. I think it's going to be early. I think it's going to be in the first round. Give me Earos Medic by first round knockout here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Despite not being a big fan of Medic, the host sees this as a winnable fight and expects it to be violent. He thinks Medic will consistently crash the pocket and produce car crashes that could result in a finish, leading him to pick Medic by knockout.

by KO
"I'm not a big fan of Medic, but this is a very winnable fight for him and one that I expect to be violent from jump."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Uroš Medić

The MMA Guru picks Uroš Medić over Gilbert Urbina, noting that Urbina's height is likely misreported and he lacks presence. He believes Medić has better offensive skills and finishing potential, and that his losses are to higher-level opponents. He predicts a TKO win for Medić.

"I'm going with Uros Medic. I think he's better offensively. I think he's got more finishing potential."
KO (punches) R1 0:31 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Punahele Soriano 1 13 of 17 76% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Uroš Medić 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Punahele Soriano 1 13 of 17 76% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Uroš Medić 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Punahele Soriano 13 of 17 76% 12 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 9
Uroš Medić 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Punahele Soriano 13 of 17 76% 12 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 9
Uroš Medić 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Angelo picks Uroš Medić, citing his superior striking, speed, and power. He notes that Punahele Soriano's only path to victory is wrestling, but Medić's takedown defense is a concern. However, he believes Medić is the better striker and will land clean shots. He has Medić in a parlay with César Almeida, though he expresses some nervousness about the bet.

Parlay with César Almeida
"I'm going to go ahead and pick uros medik and I actually have him parlay I'll give you the other half of that parlay in a little bit"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Big Brady sees a clear path for Soriano: take Medić down. He notes Medić's takedown defense and ground game are questionable, and Soriano looked dominant at welterweight against Baeza, landing 331 strikes. He worries Soriano might strike instead of wrestle, but believes if he uses his wrestling, he can win by TKO or decision. He picks Soriano to win, possibly by TKO via ground and pound.

"I got to go pun haly Serano here I think the path is clear as day"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Cody picks Medić, questioning Soriano's one good performance at 170 against a shot Miguel Baeza. He believes Medić's power and pace will cause Soriano to fatigue. He notes Medić's finishing ability and Soriano's history of gassing.

"I'm going to take medic as the official pick but he's not going to be U like someone I want to have a ton of investment on"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Connor picks Soriano because he believes Soriano's wrestling and physicality will be effective at welterweight. He notes that Soriano showed a grinding game against Miguel Baeza, and Medić is bad at dealing with sustained pressure and takedowns. While Soriano is uncreative and has shown little improvement, Connor thinks his size and strength advantage will allow him to control the fight. He acknowledges it's not a smart pick but sees a path.

"So I'm going to pick Soriano."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Daniel notes Medić is more technically sound on the feet with better volume and diversity, while Soriano has big power in his left hand but shaky in-between and cardio concerns at welterweight. He thinks Medić will win the minutes, but Soriano could land a big shot or use wrestling. He picks Medić but is not interested in betting.

not interested in betting
"I'm going go with medic here um cuz I do think that if this fight's staying standing yes Puna has a chance to land one big shot but just in terms of the volume the output and the action it's …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Lucrative James picks Uroš Medić to win, citing Medić's superior striking and cleaner kickboxing. He acknowledges Soriano's wrestling advantage and power, but believes Medić's skill on the feet will prevail over three rounds. He notes Soriano's cardio issues and that Medić has decent takedown defense. He also mentions that Soriano moved down from 185 and Medić moved up from 155, but still favors Medić's higher ceiling.

"I think uros medes is the better fighter and I think he's going to win the fight I think he has too many skills in the strik in and he has decent take down defense at least initially"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Soriano is a solid wrestler as shown in his welterweight debut against Miguel Baeza. He will get to his grappling, keep Medić on his back, and grind out a decision win as long as he doesn't get finished early.

"I think we'll see him get to that grappling once again here keeping uros medic on his back and as long as he doesn't get finished early he should be able to Gra this match up out and win it …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Paul picks Soriano as a plus-money underdog, citing his impressive wrestling at 170 in his last fight. He expects fireworks and has bet under 1.5 rounds. He acknowledges Medić's danger but likes Soriano's path via takedowns.

under 1.5 rounds
"all side with with Puna because of me uh plus money Underdog plus the fact that like he showed us some of that wrestling there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

The Guru picks Medić, noting his size as a big lightweight at welterweight, his KO of Tim Means, and his better technique and speed. He criticizes Soriano's recent performances, including losses to Dustin Stoltzfus and a poor showing against Miguel Baeza. He predicts an early TKO for Medić.

early TKO
"I'm going to go uros medic here over penelli Sano it might be a dangerous fight but I think he'll have way better technique and he'll be a lot faster so I could actually see anos medic early TKO over …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Zane picks Medić because he is a more dangerous finisher and expects Soriano to struggle to impose his game plan. Medić's movement and kicks could frustrate Soriano, who is hittable and plotting. Zane notes that Soriano's win over Baeza was more about Baeza's poor performance than Soriano's skill. Medić's ability to keep the fight in open space and avoid being clinched gives him the edge.

"I'm going to go with meditch."
WIN vs Tim Means
TKO (punches) R1 2:09 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Uroš Medić 0 7 of 17 41% 10 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:18
Tim Means 1 7 of 12 58% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Uroš Medić 0 7 of 17 41% 10 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:18
Tim Means 1 7 of 12 58% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Uroš Medić 7 of 17 41% 1 of 10 5 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 14 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tim Means 7 of 12 58% 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 9 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Uroš Medić 7 of 17 41% 1 of 10 5 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 14 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tim Means 7 of 12 58% 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 9 1 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Angelo is very confident Uroš Medić wins, citing his youth, speed, power, and superior striking. He notes Medić has a 100% finish rate and killer instinct. The only concern is Medić's 46% takedown defense, but he thinks Tim Means at 40 years old may not be able to exploit it. He expects a finish and suggests waiting for prop bets, hoping for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.

Under 2.5 rounds (if available)
"uros medic should win this fight I very confident in him to win this fight I don't know if I trust these odds just yet let's wait for the prop bets"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Cody picks Means as a dog, citing his experience and cleaner striking. He notes Means' body work and straight left, and believes he can hurt Medić, who has been rocked before. However, he admits Means' age and cardio are concerns, making it a doger pass.

"it's pretty clear dogger pass here means could beat him on volume too"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Daniel thinks Means is durable but at 40 may not dig deep when hurt. He notes Medić is younger, more dangerous, and showed heart in the Semelsberger fight. He leans Medić but won't bet at -310, though he might take Means as a dog if the price gets better.

"I'm gonna go medic but I mean I'd love to see the Dirty Bird win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Uroš Medić

Medić is younger, faster, and more powerful. Means is 40 with a lot of mileage. Medić's Muay Thai and power should overwhelm Means as the fight goes on. I expect Medić to finish Means, possibly by knockout. The inside distance prop is a good option.

Medić wins inside distance
"I think that medic as he continues to land and starts landing on means uh it's going to cause means to you know I think it will cause him to break and I think that will eventually see means actually …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Paul also picks Means, highlighting his experience against better competition and his opportunistic submission game. He thinks Means' grappling advantage could be key, as Medić has poor takedown defense. He calls it a clear doger pass.

"it's pretty clear dogger pass here means could beat him on volume too"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

The MMA Guru picks Uroš Medić, calling him more explosive and dangerous on the feet. He criticizes Tim Means as hitting a veteran decline and notes his loss to Matt Semelsberger. He highlights Medić's good cardio and nasty body kicks, predicting a TKO via liver shot. He also mentions Medić's near-finish of Orolbai and his ability to handle Means' grinding style.

TKO via liver shot
"I'm going to go uros medic I think he's really dangerous"
Submission (neck crank) R2 4:12 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Myktybek Orolbai 0 14 of 27 51% 17 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Uroš Medić 0 8 of 20 40% 16 of 31 7 of 10 70% 1 0 7:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Myktybek Orolbai 0 14 of 25 56% 15 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Uroš Medić 0 5 of 13 38% 6 of 14 5 of 8 62% 0 0 3:49
2 Myktybek Orolbai 0 0 of 2 0% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uroš Medić 0 3 of 7 42% 10 of 17 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Myktybek Orolbai 14 of 27 51% 10 of 20 4 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 14 8 of 12 1 of 1
Uroš Medić 8 of 20 40% 6 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 4 3 of 8 1 of 1 4 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Myktybek Orolbai 14 of 25 56% 10 of 20 4 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 12 8 of 12 1 of 1
Uroš Medić 5 of 13 38% 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 9
2 Myktybek Orolbai 0 of 2 0% 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uroš Medić 3 of 7 42% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Angelo picks Uroš Medić, expecting his technical striking and patience to light up the brawler Johnny Parsons. He notes Medić has speed, footwork, and a killer instinct. He warns that Parsons is always live for a knockout but does not think he will find it here.

"I think uros medic is going to light up Johnny Parsons because he's going to be more technical he's going to stay on the outside"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Uroš Medić

Big Brady was impressed with Orolbai's skills but notes he's coming in on short notice, which affects his cardio for a wrestling-heavy game plan. He thinks Medić is dangerous, has shown three-round cardio, and can finish fights late. He picks Medić by third-round knockout, but says on a full camp he would pick Orolbai. He doesn't see himself betting this fight.

"I'm gonna pick medic just due to the fact that oral is coming in here on short notice"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Cody does not make a clear pick due to lack of information on Orolbai. He notes the fight was added late and he hasn't studied it. He mentions Orolbai looks like a 'bad man' but is on short notice. He leans towards passing or taking the favorite but is uncertain.

"I don't really got a concrete answer for you I guess orbi is the cowards way yet I'll just take the favorite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai has relentless grappling and crushing top pressure, with improved striking leading to knockouts. Medić is a striker with questionable ground game. Orolbai will dictate the pace with wrestling, land big shots, and find a finish in the second round. The fight doesn't go to decision is a favorite prop.

fight doesn't go to decision, Orolbai inside the distance
"give me oral by by uh let's say TKO inside the distance but even his betting line at minus 140 I think that is a gift of a line or obai inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Paul also does not make a clear pick, stating he hasn't looked into Orolbai enough. He mentions Medić's toughness and power but cannot confidently pick a side. He suggests the fight will be violent but passes on betting.

"I don't have I really don't know nearly enough about oral by to pick them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

The MMA Guru picks Uroš Medić to finish Myktybek Orolbai with a body kick. He notes Medić's size at welterweight and his win over Matthew Semelsberger, where he survived a knockdown and finished him in the third round at altitude. He criticizes Orolbai for making Danny Roberts look competitive and believes Medić's reach and height advantage will lead to a finish.

kick to the body finish
"I'm going to go with Uros Medic over Johnny Parsons... I reckon OS is going to finish him with a kick to the body."
TKO (spinning backfist and punches) R3 2:36 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Uroš Medić 1 52 of 120 43% 53 of 121 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:13
Matthew Semelsberger 1 69 of 128 53% 76 of 135 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Uroš Medić 1 17 of 36 47% 18 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
Matthew Semelsberger 0 18 of 31 58% 19 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
2 Uroš Medić 0 24 of 58 41% 24 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matthew Semelsberger 0 25 of 55 45% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Uroš Medić 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Matthew Semelsberger 1 26 of 42 61% 31 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Uroš Medić 52 of 120 43% 31 of 91 8 of 14 13 of 15 42 of 106 3 of 5 7 of 9
Matthew Semelsberger 69 of 128 53% 49 of 98 17 of 27 3 of 3 50 of 104 13 of 18 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Uroš Medić 17 of 36 47% 10 of 29 5 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 25 1 of 2 7 of 9
Matthew Semelsberger 18 of 31 58% 12 of 22 5 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 24 5 of 7 0 of 0
2 Uroš Medić 24 of 58 41% 12 of 40 3 of 8 9 of 10 23 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 25 of 55 45% 16 of 43 7 of 10 2 of 2 24 of 53 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Uroš Medić 11 of 26 42% 9 of 22 0 of 1 2 of 3 10 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 26 of 42 61% 21 of 33 5 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 27 7 of 9 6 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Angelo picks Semelsberger because he believes Semelsberger has enough chin to weather Medić's striking and can then work in his grappling advantage. He notes that Semelsberger has solid leg kicks, body work, and power, but can be sloppy. He trusts Semelsberger to close the gap and drag the fight into later rounds, where his grappling should take over. He already placed a half-unit bet at -150.

half a unit at -150
"The pick is going to be Samuel's Burger because he should have enough chin to weather what other storm comes his way and then he can work in grappling."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Big Brady picks Matthew Semelsberger to win by second-round knockout. He argues that Semelsberger has more paths to victory: better durability, cardio, wrestling, and grappling, plus massive power (nine knockdowns in eight fights). He expects Medić, coming up in weight on short notice at elevation, to fade after an early onslaught, and Semelsberger's chin will hold up to finish him.

second round knockout
"I'll say semmelsberger's second round knockout though after medic starts to slow down a little bit"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Cody picks Semelsberger but is hesitant at -200. He notes Medić's power and early finishing ability but questions his cardio. Semelsberger has good volume and takedown defense issues but can survive early onslaughts. He suggests a live bet on Semelsberger if he survives the first round.

"someone's Burger is going to be the pick I'm not gonna get to it at minus 200 though"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

James believes Medić is a cleaner striker with better timing and technique, while Semelsberger has more power but an elite chin that may eventually crack. He notes the line has moved heavily toward Semelsberger, creating value on Medić as an underdog. He thinks the fight is fairly even and that Medić's striking prowess gives him the edge.

"I do tend to think that there's some value on the uros medit side for me I think Urus medic is a cleaner Striker"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Semelsberger has more knockdowns than fights and his forward pressure and power punching will be too much for Medić. Medić is a glass cannon with a hand injury history and doesn't have the grappling to exploit Semelsberger's weakness. Semelsberger will land a big punch and knock him out. Fight doesn't go to decision is a great play.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I fully believe that the forward pressure and aggressive movement and power punching style of samuelsberger will be too much for medichair and I think that will allow him to get the win"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Paul also picks Semelsberger, citing his superior cardio and volume. He notes Medić's limited cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. Semelsberger has faced wrestlers and power punchers but has shown durability. He advises a live bet if Medić doesn't finish early.

"I gotta lead towards Summer's Burger having that Superior volume being able to actually fight 15 minutes"
WIN vs Omar Morales
TKO (punches) R2 3:05 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Uroš Medić 0 33 of 85 38% 33 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Omar Morales 2 47 of 86 54% 47 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Uroš Medić 0 17 of 52 32% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Omar Morales 0 24 of 50 48% 24 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Uroš Medić 0 16 of 33 48% 16 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Omar Morales 2 23 of 36 63% 23 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Uroš Medić 33 of 85 38% 18 of 64 8 of 14 7 of 7 32 of 82 1 of 3 0 of 0
Omar Morales 47 of 86 54% 21 of 57 13 of 16 13 of 13 45 of 83 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Uroš Medić 17 of 52 32% 6 of 37 7 of 11 4 of 4 17 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
Omar Morales 24 of 50 48% 11 of 35 8 of 10 5 of 5 23 of 48 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Uroš Medić 16 of 33 48% 12 of 27 1 of 3 3 of 3 15 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Omar Morales 23 of 36 63% 10 of 22 5 of 6 8 of 8 22 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Angelo picks Omar Morales because he believes Morales's strength and ability to mix in grappling will be the difference. He notes that Uroš Medić is a kill-or-be-killed first-round striker who has shown poor grappling defense. Morales needs to survive the first round and work takedowns to avoid danger. Angelo expects a decision win for Morales.

"i think omar's strength and a touch of that grappling that we've seen will be the difference here so i think omar will win a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Big Brady picks Omar Morales to win by second-round submission, but expresses low confidence due to Morales' poor fight IQ. He notes Morales has a BJJ black belt and should take the fight to the mat to exploit Medić's weak ground game and cardio. However, he worries Morales might stand and trade, which would give Medić a knockout chance. He says he cannot trust Morales at -160.

second round submission
"give me morales to win remember alice to win by second round submission but i just can't trust him and i can't trust him at minus 160 as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Cody picks Morales, citing his durability, experience, and return to lightweight where he performed best. He notes Medić's tendency to fade after the first round and lack of deep fight experience. He expects Morales to weather an early storm and take over as Medić tires, possibly winning by decision or late finish.

"i'm actually expecting to see a little bit better version of him here and i think a slightly better version of him here gets the win against euros medic"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions it as a potential live bet spot (Medic after round one) and includes it in a totals parlay (under 2.5 rounds), but does not state a winner.

under 2.5 rounds (part of totals parlay)
"medic obviously after or sorry uh omar morales after round one"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Paul agrees with Cody, saying Morales' durability and return to lightweight should be key. He notes Medić's early explosiveness but thinks Morales can survive and take over. He is confident in Morales.

"that makes sense to me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Omar Morales

The MMA Guru picks Omar Morales, citing his toughness and durability. He worries about Uroš Medić's cardio and thinks Morales can survive the early storm and take over in later rounds. He notes Morales has a reach advantage and can pressure Medić in the second and third rounds. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision for Morales.

"i'm going to trust omar morales not to get finished early"
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Angelo picks Geoff Neal despite recent knockout loss, citing his overall experience and well-rounded skill set. He acknowledges Uroš Medić's power and finishing ability but notes Medić's questionable chin. He is hesitant because Neal is 35 and coming off a KO, but believes Neal is the better fighter.

"Geoff Neal's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to defeat Uroš Medić, citing Medić's suspect chin and Neal's heavy hands. He notes that Medić has been dropped by lesser punchers like Gilbert Urbina, while Neal hits like a truck. He predicts a first-round knockout, possibly requiring a stretcher for Medić. He acknowledges Neal was knocked out in his last fight but calls that a fluke spinning elbow that would KO most of the division.

Geoff Neal by first-round knockout
"I think Geoff Neal's going to hit Medich very hard and I'm just not sure Medich is going to be able to take it. I got to go Geoff Neal here to win and I'm going to take Geoff Neal to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Cody buys into Neal's sobriety narrative and thinks this is his easiest fight in a while. He notes Medić is an under machine who either finishes or gets finished, and expects Neal to win by KO early. He recommends under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds
"Neil's the pick for me, but give me unders. Fight doesn't go to decision as parlay pieces."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Connor picks Neal confidently, stating that Medić is a glass cannon who gets hurt easily and sells out on his shots, leaving him vulnerable to counters. He notes that Neal has been tested against much better competition and has always been competitive, while Medić's wins have aged poorly. He believes Neal's composure and athleticism will be too much for Medić.

Connor thinks the odds should be more like -400; Neal opened -180, now -212; Medić opened +155, now +182
"I'm going to be real honest. I think this should be like your plus minus 400 odds kind of fight."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
No clear pick

The host rules out betting on Neal due to red flags from an interview where Neal discussed past issues with drugs, alcohol, and diet, making him unreliable at -225. He is tempted by Medic as a +178 underdog, noting Medic's dynamic striking and power, but passes because Medic has slowed in past fights and Neal has excellent cardio. He concludes it's an easy pass on both sides.

Neal's lifestyle red flags; Medic's cardio concerns
"There is no [__] way that anyone with a brain can bet Jeff Neil after he has literally told you his diet might not be the best and he has issues with drugs slash alcohol."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

James picks Geoff Neal to win by first-round KO, citing Neal's experience against elite competition and the step down in competition for Medic. He notes that Medic is volatile and prone to getting knocked out early, and that Neal's power and boxing should be enough to finish him. James also likes the under 1.5 rounds and doesn't go to decision props.

under 1.5 rounds at -175, doesn't go to decision
"I will pick Jeff Neil to get it done via KO in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Neal is a crafty striker with good power and range management, and he has fought tougher competition. Medic is a Muay Thai specialist but has durability issues and poor grappling defense. Neal should be able to land a big shot and finish Medic, likely in the first round. The line is fair given Neal's experience and home crowd.

"I think Neil wins pretty easily here and I think he gets the knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Paul thinks Neal's step up in competition is significant and that Medić's chin is suspect. He notes Neal has fought top welterweights and held his own, while Medić has been knocked out by lesser opponents. He expects Neal to win by KO, possibly in the first round.

Neal by KO -133
"Neil Neil KO minus 133 any round minus 133. Yeah, looks like the way to go."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Geoff Neal, despite concerns about his chin and motivation after a KO loss. He believes Medić makes mistakes and is explosive but can be caught coming in. He predicts Neal will find a way to put Medić away in round two after Medić expends his energy.

TKO round two
"I'm going to go with Geoff Neal by TKO round two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Zane agrees with Connor, calling Medić a 'one hitter quitter' who is extremely vulnerable on the counter. He notes that Medić has no defense and gets hurt easily, even in fights he wins. He believes Neal is significantly better in the pocket and should be able to weather Medić's early power and then take over.

"I think Jeff Neil is significantly better and more composed in the pocket than Medic. If Jeff Neil doesn't absolutely dust rose Medic, then that'll be a huge shock."