UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · Jun 20, 2026 · Flyweight · Scheduled
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Age 34
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 27
Height 5' 5"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Allan Nascimento
3.06 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
2.53 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.26 TD Avg
23.0% TD Acc.
37.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Mitch Raposo
1.73 SLpM
36.0% Str. Acc.
2.65 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
2.54 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Allan Nascimento

No odds available

Mitch Raposo

No odds available

Allan Nascimento - Fight History
SCHED vs Mitch Raposo
CANCEL vs Mitch Raposo
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mitch Raposo

Angelo picks Mitch Raposo as an underdog, noting that Nascimento's striking looked poor in his last fight and that Raposo's striking advantage should prevail if he avoids the ground. He compares the matchup favorably to Raposo's previous win over a wrestler, as Nascimento is more BJJ-oriented.

"I'm going to take a shot at the dog. So, Mitch is going to be the pick and as long as Mitch stays safe and doesn't end up on the ground, I think he dominates the striking here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mitch Raposo

Big Brady picks Mitch Raposo as an underdog, citing his solid wrestling and improved grappling. He notes Raposo's ability to get up from takedowns, as shown against Murzakanov. Brady thinks if Nascimento doesn't get a submission, the fight becomes close, and Raposo's youth and power could edge a split decision. He expects a stinker of a fight.

split decision
"Give me the dog in Mitch Raposo and give me Mitch Raposo by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Cody picks Allan Nascimento, citing his dangerous submission game. He notes that Raposo has improved but Nascimento's grappling is a major threat. He is wary of betting against Nascimento's X-factor.

"Nastos is the pick for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Connor picks Nascimento because he is a fun, good fighter who stays busy on the feet and has a reactive submission game that can catch opponents who close distance recklessly. He notes that Raposo is a wrestle-boxer still figuring out UFC pace, and Nascimento's ability to annoy opponents into mistakes should be too much for him.

Nascimento opened at -350, now -185; Raposo opened at +285, now +160; Connor notes the line movement is unusual but not suspicious
"I will take Nascimento."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Daniel acknowledges Raposo's decent hands but believes Nascimento's ground game is devastating and opportunistic. He thinks if Nascimento gets on top or dangles off the neck, the fight ends quickly. He picks Nascimento to win.

"I'm going to pick Alan Nasimeto to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mitch Raposo

James picks Mitch Raposo as a big underdog, believing his wrestling and striking will neutralize Nascimento's grappling. He thinks Raposo can keep the fight on the feet and outpoint Nascimento, who has poor wrestling and cardio issues.

"I'm going to pick Mitch Raposo here as a massive underdog to come out there and hugely upset Alan Nasimento."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mitch Raposo

The host likes Raposo to replicate his performance against Askarov, using stick-and-move, calf kicks, and countering Nascimento when he crashes the pocket. He believes Raposo's confidence is high and his defensive grappling will keep him safe from submissions. He predicts a decision win, and mentions a possible shot on round three as Nascimento slows.

round three prop
"I like Repos here. It's been 4 and 1/2 years since he's been submitted... confidence under his feet, full training camp, this is a very winnable fight for Repos. So, I'm going to go with the American to get his …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mitch Raposo

Paul picks Mitch Raposo, citing his wrestling and speed advantage. He notes that Nascimento has poor offensive wrestling and low volume striking. He believes Raposo can keep the fight standing and win rounds.

"I actually did take Metropos. I feel like that when you talk about style clashes, Mitch has the style to present Nasimono with a ton of problems."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Nascimento has a trustworthy reactive submission game and can tap opponents who dive into his guard. He points out that Raposo has been scraping by in the UFC and that Nascimento's pressure should force him into big mistakes. He also mentions that Nascimento's fight with Tajiro Lanbokov was close, showing his level.

Nascimento opened at -350, now -185; Raposo opened at +285, now +160
"I will take Nascimento."
WIN vs Cody Durden
Submission R2 3:13 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Allan Nascimento 0 52 of 115 45% 52 of 115 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:21
Cody Durden 0 57 of 128 44% 57 of 128 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Allan Nascimento 0 26 of 58 44% 26 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cody Durden 0 36 of 73 49% 36 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:03
2 Allan Nascimento 0 26 of 57 45% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:21
Cody Durden 0 21 of 55 38% 21 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Allan Nascimento 52 of 115 45% 19 of 69 7 of 17 26 of 29 51 of 114 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cody Durden 57 of 128 44% 47 of 112 5 of 9 5 of 7 57 of 128 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Allan Nascimento 26 of 58 44% 7 of 31 3 of 9 16 of 18 25 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cody Durden 36 of 73 49% 28 of 61 5 of 8 3 of 4 36 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Allan Nascimento 26 of 57 45% 12 of 38 4 of 8 10 of 11 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Durden 21 of 55 38% 19 of 51 0 of 1 2 of 3 21 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Durden vs. Allan Nascimento
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nascimento (-260); Durden (+210)

Round 1
Due to Durden (17-8-1, 6-6-1 UFC) stepping in to replace Rafael Estevam on short notice, he has agreed to face “Puro Osso” Nascimento (21-6, 3-1 UFC) at a catchweight of 130 pounds. This wrestler vs. grappler affair will be officiated by referee Mark Smith, who claps the athletes in as they touch gloves to signal their relief in being able to fight and get paid this weekend.
Durden bounces up and down on his heels, possibly presenting looks for takedowns, but then springs forward and drills the Brazilian with an overhand right. Durden pops Nascimento with a jab, and he smacks the front leg with his shin. Durden evades a kick and hurls an overhand right, and he pushes out a front kick that is caught and forces him to the mat. Durden lets him back up and puts a jab right in the Brazilian’s face. Nascimento hammers the lead calf with a kick, and a second puts Durden on notice. Durden races ahead throwing punches, and Nascimento slips to the side and beats him with another thudding kick. He scores one more when Durden comes his direction, and Durden still crashes the pocket and checks Nascimento’s chin with a left hand on the cheek. The jabs from Durden are marking up Nascimento’s cheek, and he is not far from splitting it open with sheer volume.
Nascimento keeps his back to the cage and tosses out kicks, and he sharply counters Durden with a right hand and plants one more calf kick for good measure. Durden punches through the guar to reach the taller Brazilian, and he catches him with a right hook and makes Nascimento double over. Nascimento reels and backs away, and Durden knocks him back to the wall with an overhand right. Nascimento goes back after his leg kick, and Durden punches him in the guts to back him away again. Nascimento checks a kick and lets his hands go, and his head kick does reach the top of the head. Durden kicks and shoots for a takedown, and Nascimento stands him up and skirts away from the offense he anticipates. Durden still marches him down, his leg lump and welted from the kicks, so that he can put his hands on Nascimento’s jaw. They trash one another with heavy leg kicks, and Nascimento stings Durden and forces him to shoot on him. Nascimento stands back to let it fly by him, and the horn sounds to end what became a close round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 2
Durden starts out the round as aggressive as ever, and he scores on the Brazilian early. Nascimento slows him down with a steady diet of calf kicks, and his right hands continue to find their home while Durden rushes after him. They clash shins when kicking at the same time, and then bang their heads together when coming towards one another. Nascimento backs off, with Smith telling them to be careful, and he rushes in behind a knee. Durden shakes it off and responds with a plethora of punches, only slowing when Nascimento tries to introduce his shin to the Georgia native’s chin. Nascimento whiffs on a looping left hand, and he has a leg kick checked. Nascimento stands Durden up with a right hand, and he gets his head snapped back in the counter. Nascimento pounds on the front leg, and he eats three punches down the middle like they are nothing. Durden gets clipped with a left hand, constantly pressing forward even when under fire. Nascimento rattles him with a long one-two, wrapping his hand around the back of the neck but not using it for a takedown.
Both met let their hands go, and Nascimento puts Durden down with a counter right hand.
Durden ducks to shoot, and he finds himself immediate ensnared in an anaconda choke. Nascimento has the submission virtually completed the moment Durden hits his knees, in what may be the worst choice that “Custom Made” could have made. Durden turns to his back, but there is no way out, so he has to give up.
Durden taps until Smith intervenes, and Nascimento has now recorded 15 submissions in his 22 pro wins. He asks for a ranked opponent, specifically calling out Steve Erceg for his next outing.

The Official Result
Allan Nascimento def. Cody Durden R2 3:13 via Submission (Anaconda Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Angelo picks Allan Nascimento, but is hesitant. He notes Nascimento's jiu-jitsu is excellent but his takedowns are poor, so he relies on being taken down to sweep. He thinks Cody Durden's wrestling and cardio have declined, and he gets tired. However, he worries that if Durden doesn't wrestle, Nascimento won't finish on the feet, leading to a low-scoring fight. He may avoid it in DFS.

"I think Alan wins this fight. I think Alan could potentially finish this new version of Cody Durden, but I'm... probably going to avoid it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Big Brady picks Allan Nascimento, noting Cody Durden is on short notice, 34 years old, and has taken a ton of damage in recent fights. He highlights Nascimento's size, length, and excellent grappling. He believes once the fight hits the ground, Nascimento will have a huge advantage and predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission, minus 300 favorite
"I like Nasnto here. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Connor also picks Nascimento, noting that Durden is super vulnerable on defense and aggressive to a fault. He thinks Nascimento's submission game is dangerous enough to catch Durden, but he wouldn't be surprised if Durden rides out a win on top. He mentions Durden's bigger signature wins but still leans Nascimento.

"I think I'll take Nascimento and one thing I do know about him is that he's durable."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Nascimento's BJJ will get Durden into bad spots and he will eventually pull off a submission. The host's favorite spot is the under 2.5 rounds at even money.

under 2.5 rounds at even money
"His BJJ should help him get Duran into some bad spots and from there I expect Nasameto to eventually pull off a submission. Although my favorite spot in this fight would probably be the under two and a half at …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

The MMA Guru picks Allan Nascimento, noting his size advantage at catchweight and superior grappling. He compares Nascimento's dominant grappling against Jafel Filho to Cody Durden's struggles against Jake Hadley. He worries about Durden taking the fight on short notice and predicts Nascimento wins by decision or submission in the second or third round.

submission in the second or third round
"I'm going to say that Allan Nascimento gets this one done. Another thing to mention here as well, Allan Nascimento out-grappled Jafel Filho round after round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Zane picks Nascimento to catch a submission, noting that Durden sells out so hard on offense that he makes himself vulnerable to submissions. He acknowledges that if Nascimento doesn't submit him, Durden could grind out a win. He mentions Nascimento's durability and solid submission game.

submission
"I'm thinking to take Nascimento to catch sub but like you know if he doesn't this could be a very scrappy hard fought fight."
CANCEL vs Rafael Estevam
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Lucrative James mentions this fight in the intro as a grapplers' delight but does not provide a breakdown or pick for it. He does not discuss the matchup in detail later in the transcript.

"We also have an absolute grapplers delight at flyweight. We have Alan Nasamento taking on Raphael Estan."
WIN vs Jafel Filho
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jafel Filho 0 14 of 30 46% 40 of 63 4 of 7 57% 1 0 6:20
Allan Nascimento 0 12 of 24 50% 30 of 58 1 of 6 16% 1 2 7:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jafel Filho 0 11 of 20 55% 22 of 37 2 of 4 50% 1 0 4:07
Allan Nascimento 0 4 of 9 44% 7 of 12 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:04
2 Jafel Filho 0 1 of 4 25% 13 of 17 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:11
Allan Nascimento 0 6 of 9 66% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:35
3 Jafel Filho 0 2 of 6 33% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Allan Nascimento 0 2 of 6 33% 7 of 22 1 of 3 33% 1 1 3:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jafel Filho 14 of 30 46% 7 of 20 7 of 9 0 of 1 6 of 20 6 of 8 2 of 2
Allan Nascimento 12 of 24 50% 3 of 12 4 of 4 5 of 8 9 of 19 1 of 1 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jafel Filho 11 of 20 55% 6 of 12 5 of 7 0 of 1 4 of 11 5 of 7 2 of 2
Allan Nascimento 4 of 9 44% 0 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 5 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jafel Filho 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
Allan Nascimento 6 of 9 66% 2 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 4
3 Jafel Filho 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Allan Nascimento 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jafel Filho vs. Allan Nascimento (127.5: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nascimento (-155), Filho (+130)

Round 1
To say it has been a rough road for Nascimento (20-6, 2-1 UFC) in the UFC thus far is understatement of the year. With canceled fights on either side of the equation, the Chute Boxe Diego Lima product has only fought three times since making his UFC debut in 2021. Before he faces Filho (16-3, 2-1 UFC), he will give his fellow countryman 20% of his purse for missing the flyweight cap by a pound and a half. When the dust settles, one of these two will find their two-fight win streak fall by the wayside. Referee Chris Tognoni is prepped and ready for whoever that may be, and he bears witness to a glove touch to begin the melee. Filho takes the center of the cage, with Nascimento circling around him offering jabs and a slapping calf kick. Filho dodges a second kick and whiffs on one of his own, and he walks through a low kick to load up on a right hand. Nascimento sticks and moves with kicks, and he switches up with a body kick from the other limb. Filho crashes the pocket to slow the heavier fighter down, kneeing him in the stomach and cup before trying to throw him to the mat. Nascimento keeps his balance but is absorbing knees to the midsection, with Filho quickly using a knee to set up a trip a couple times to no avail. Filho grabs the fence to keep himself upright when Nascimento looks for his own takedown, and he uses momentum to spin Nascimento to the ground. Filho steps into full mount as soon as he claims top position, and he looks for an arm-triangle choke but cannot get it before Nascimento scrambles madly to get to his feet. Filho mat returns him fairly quickly, and he gets hold of a body lock and starts fishing for a rear-naked choke. Filho flattens his foe out and starts driving down right hands while Nascimento scrambles, posturing up to either land a strike or hunt for another choke. When he puts Nascimento on his back again, Filho quickly sets up an arm-triangle choke. Nascimento turns the proper direction to thwart the choke, and he sits up into a guillotine choke. Filho has the mounted guillotine locked up tight with one arm, and Nascimento kicks and bucks with all his might to keep himself in the fight. Filho lets go right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Filho
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Filho
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Filho

Round 2
The countrymen touch gloves, and Filho is again the aggressor in the center of the cage pushing forward. He slugs Nascimento in the chops and changes levels for a takedown, only for the taller man to shut him down on his first effort. Nascimento jumps for a knee, and Filho thanks him for this by slinging him to the mat. Nascimento returns to his feet fairly quickly, with Filho pressing heavily on his side and back. Nascimento grabs the fence a few times, keeping himself from being taken down because of it. As soon as he releases it, Filho throws him to the mat and starts searching for a short choke. Nascimento slides him out the back and flips Filho over, where he moves to side control and pushes his chest flat on top of Filho’s. Nascimento squeezes on Filho’s head with his shoulder, and he flirts with an arm-triangle choke while Filho is boxing his ears. Nascimento steps over to try to mount his foe, and when he does not get it, he pursues the arm-triangle. With Filho wise to it, Nascimento is bucked back to half guard. Nascimento stays as heavy as possible, and he grips Filho’s left arm in pursuit of some armlock that does not come together. Filho gets to a knee, and Nascimento tackles him back down to the ground. Filho reasserts butterfly hooks until Nascimento slashes him with an elbow that allows him to step back into half guard. Nascimento drills his man with another nasty elbow, and Filho defends most additional efforts. One or two more elbows land from Nascimento until the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento

Round 3
The two hug it out to open the last round, and it most likely is all up for grabs here. Filho leads the dance once more, sticking Nascimento first with a long left hand and a right to follow. Nascimento backs him off with a body kick, and Filho responds with a left to the liver and stonewalls Nascimento who is after a takedown. Filho turns the effort against him, dragging Nascimento to the mat and sneaking around to take his back. “Pastor” wraps up his man in an awkward way, stretching Nascimento’s arms over his head while torqueing his midsection. There is no submission to be had here, and he slowly finds himself sliding off the back again. Nascimento flips him over with a burst of energy, and he asserts top position and hunts for an arm-triangle choke. Filho’s mad scrambles keep him safe from getting submitted, sitting up even with Nascimento on his back with an arm draped around his shoulder. Filho is warned for grabbing the inside of his foe’s glove to defend the submission, and Nascimento wriggles his arm and looks for a neck crank when there is no rear-naked choke. Nascimento commits to it, and Filho smartly hand-fights to relieve the pressure. Nascimento slugs Filho in the side of the head a few times to open up another submission possibility, and he remains on top when Filho flails his legs wildly. Nascimento controls from behind even as Filho stands up, and he wraps a leg around Filho’s in hopes of dragging him back down. Filho spins around, is warned for fence grabs, and is tripped down to the canvas. Nascimento takes his back once more with hooks in, and secures a body triangle and a neck crank at the same time. Filho stays calm in the face of submission efforts and lets Nascimento tire himself out trying. Nascimento hacks with elbows to the top of Filho’s head and also to the back of his head, with fouls uncalled on every side in this grappling match. The fight ends with Nascimento hanging on from behind.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (29-28 Nascimento)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (29-28 Nascimento)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (29-28 Nascimento)

The Official Result
Allan Nascimento def. Jafel Filho via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

Angelo picks Jafel Filho, noting his fast-paced style, solid takedown defense, and good fight IQ. He trusts Filho to be smart with aggression, unlike the unknown Gustafsson. He is concerned about Filho's lack of decision wins and Nascimento's durability (never finished), but believes Filho can win a decision if needed.

Watches odds hoping for a plus price on Filho.
"Joff is going to be the pick. We're going to watch these odds, see if we can get even better than these minus 115 we have now."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Big Brady expects a grappling-heavy fight and picks Allan Nascimento as the better grappler, noting he has never been submitted while Jafel Filho has been submitted twice. He believes Nascimento will eventually catch Filho in a submission later in the fight as Filho slows down. He predicts a third-round submission.

third round submission
"I think this fight's going to play out on the ground. I think eventually Nasimento is going to catch Filio in something probably later in the fight when Filio starts to slow down a little bit."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

Matt leans with Jafel Filho at plus money. He believes Filho has good enough submission defense to neutralize Nascimento's grappling and is the better striker. Filho's calf kicks could slow Nascimento's takedown attempts. Matt expects Filho to win by decision, noting that Nascimento's losses have all come by decision.

Filho by decision +470, Filho by KO +470, Nascimento by decision +145, Nascimento by submission +470
"At plus 130 it's hard to overlook the positives that uh Fio brings into this matchup and so I'm going to have to lean with him to win this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

The MMA Guru picks Jafel Filho as an underdog, citing his sharper striking, activity, and youth. He notes Filho's submission attempts are more varied (armbars, leg locks) while Nascimento relies on rear-naked chokes. He also highlights Nascimento's long layoff and multiple fight cancellations as concerns.

"I'm going with Jafel Filho here against Alan Nascimen... I think Jfel Filho is a little sharper on the feet than Alan Nasimento is."
Submission R1 3:16 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Carlos Hernandez vs. Allan Nascimento
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nascimento (-410), Hernandez (+330)

Round 1
Moving back to flyweights, Brazilian submission artist Nascimento (19-6, 1-1 UFC) will try to get things done against fellow grappler Hernandez (8-1, 1-0 UFC) in what could be a fun battle on the ground. The two combine for 17 submissions across their 27 career wins, while neither man has ever been finished. Referee Jason Herzog is ready for wherever the fight may take the three of them, and he sits back as the two competitors clap hands. Nascimento advances first, feinting and faking to draw immediate reactions. Hernandez does not bite on anything, and they paw at one another with low kicks and jabs. Nascimento goes up top with a kick that is blocked, and he slides out of the way from a straight right hand. Nascimento connects with a front kick that splits the guard, shaking Hernandez up, and this allows him to punch his way into a takedown try. In an unorthodox fashion, Nascimento throws Hernandez down to his knees, and Hernandez immediately fights his way back up. The subsequent mat return from Nascimento succeeds when he drags the American down from behind, and he cinches up a body triangle in a hurry. Hernandez smartly fights the hands and turns to the proper side to break up the body lock, and Nascimento switches his leg grip as he hunts for a sneaky choke. Hernandez walks off the wall and turns all the way to belly down, and
this is the worst possible move for him as Nascimento gets the leverage to sink in the rear-naked choke. Hernandez stands up with Nascimento on his back, and “Puro Osso” still has the choke under the chin as he squeezes with all his might. Switching his grip to palm-to-palm, it is just a matter of time at this point. Hernandez grimaces and squirms, but there is nothing more he can do, and he taps out.
As it turned out, something did have to give, as Hernandez has now been finished for the first time as a pro.

The Official Result
Allan Nascimento def. Carlos Hernandez R1 3:16 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
WIN vs Jake Hadley
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Allan Nascimento 0 8 of 29 27% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 1 1 3:50
Jake Hadley 0 19 of 52 36% 36 of 69 2 of 4 50% 0 3 9:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Allan Nascimento 0 3 of 14 21% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:23
Jake Hadley 0 4 of 11 36% 14 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:59
2 Allan Nascimento 0 2 of 5 40% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Jake Hadley 0 9 of 21 42% 14 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:04
3 Allan Nascimento 0 3 of 10 30% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:02
Jake Hadley 0 6 of 20 30% 8 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 2 2:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Allan Nascimento 8 of 29 27% 5 of 25 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 20 1 of 1 4 of 8
Jake Hadley 19 of 52 36% 7 of 32 8 of 16 4 of 4 10 of 27 1 of 2 8 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Allan Nascimento 3 of 14 21% 1 of 11 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 5
Jake Hadley 4 of 11 36% 1 of 6 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 2
2 Allan Nascimento 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jake Hadley 9 of 21 42% 3 of 11 5 of 9 1 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 2 4 of 9
3 Allan Nascimento 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jake Hadley 6 of 20 30% 3 of 15 2 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 12
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jake Hadley vs. Allan Nascimento
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hadley (-210), Nascimento (+175)

Round 1
Undefeated Brit prospect Hadley makes his debut against “Puro Osso,” with referee Mike Beltran set to oversee the proceedings. The flyweights begin exchanging right away, with Hadley in southpaw to Nascimento’s orthodox stance. Nascimento catches a kick and runs Hadley to the canvas. Hadley immediately uses an omoplata to sweep to top position, setting up in the Brazilian’s guard. He moves to half guard, pins Nascimento’s right arm and moves to the back. Nascimento keeps hold of Hadley’s leg, preventing him from completing the back take, then threatens with a heel hook before sweeping to top position. Hadley closes up his guard, then applies a body triangle from the bottom. With a minute left, it’s still Nascimento on top, throwing short shoulder strikes and driving Hadley toward the fence. Nascimento tries to pass Hadley’s guard, but time expires before he can.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento

Round 2
Hadley rushes forward to open the round and is met by a flying knee from Nascimento. A moment later, Nascimento changes levels and intercepts the advancing Hadley with a nice double-leg. Hadley immediately looks to use rubber guard, but Nascimento extracts his arms and “White Kong” changes to conventional guard. Two minutes into the round, the Brazilian is still in top position, where he advances to half guard. Hadley is active on the bottom, shifting his hips and looking for a chance to escape or sweep. Hadley uses feet on hips to kick Nascimento off of him, but Nascimento dives right back into his guard. Under a minute left, and Hadley stands up against the fence. They clinch there, with Nascimento’s back against the cage. Hadley throws a couple of short knees before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento

Round 3
The flyweights touch gloves to open the final round. Hadley scores with an overhand left. A moment later, Hadley grabs a standing guillotine choke. He cranks it hard, and though he loses the choke, he uses it to drive Nascimento down to the mat. Hadley pounces and ends up with a slightly out-of-position brabo choke. He readjusts and moves to the back, but Nascimento shrugs him off, spins and lands on top. Nascimento is in loose half-guard and working for a D’Arce choke. Nascimento loses the choke but spins to the back. Hadley scrambles away and ends up on his back with the Brazilian standing over him. Hadley gets up to his knees and Nascimento grabs a front headlock. He loses the headlock and Hadley takes him back down. Hadley tries for a guillotine choke, but gets swept for his trouble. Under 30 seconds left, Nascimento is on top. The final horn sounds on 15 minutes of frenetic grappling.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (30-27 Nascimento)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (30-27 Nascimento)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (30-27 Nascimento)

The Official Result
Allan Nascimento def. Jake Hadley via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Cody picks Nascimento as a live underdog. He notes Nascimento is tricky off his back, has good cardio, and keeps fights close. He mentions Hadley missed weight, has attitude issues, and is still adjusting to North America. He thinks the plus money is worth a shot.

"i'm gonna agree with you i think that this is a decent underdog spot right you gotta take another dog somewhere and i think nasa meno's a guy that is very tricky if this ends up being a decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Paul also picks Nascimento, calling it a dogger pass. He notes Nascimento is competitive, has good striking volume, and attacks non-stop off his back. He thinks Hadley is talented but has red flags like missing weight and rubbing matchmakers the wrong way. He likes the plus money.

"i think this is a decent underdog spot right you gotta take another dog somewhere and i think nasa meno's a guy that is very tricky"
LOSS vs Tagir Ulanbekov
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tagir Ulanbekov 0 18 of 40 45% 62 of 87 4 of 5 80% 1 1 12:04
Allan Nascimento 0 25 of 37 67% 74 of 86 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tagir Ulanbekov 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 19 1 of 2 50% 1 1 3:09
Allan Nascimento 0 10 of 17 58% 11 of 18 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:16
2 Tagir Ulanbekov 0 4 of 10 40% 26 of 33 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:07
Allan Nascimento 0 12 of 15 80% 32 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Tagir Ulanbekov 0 9 of 12 75% 31 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:48
Allan Nascimento 0 3 of 5 60% 31 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tagir Ulanbekov 18 of 40 45% 16 of 37 1 of 1 1 of 2 8 of 26 0 of 0 10 of 14
Allan Nascimento 25 of 37 67% 13 of 24 2 of 3 10 of 10 14 of 25 1 of 2 10 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tagir Ulanbekov 5 of 18 27% 3 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 2
Allan Nascimento 10 of 17 58% 3 of 9 1 of 2 6 of 6 8 of 14 0 of 1 2 of 2
2 Tagir Ulanbekov 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Allan Nascimento 12 of 15 80% 8 of 11 1 of 1 3 of 3 5 of 8 1 of 1 6 of 6
3 Tagir Ulanbekov 9 of 12 75% 9 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 12
Allan Nascimento 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Allan Nascimento vs. Tagir Ulanbekov

Round 1
Good evening, Abu Dhabi, and good morning, fight fans! UFC 267 is upon us at the island, with 14 huge fights bucking the recent trend of no rankings relevance by putting on a barrage of battles with immediate divisional implications for most. We kick things off in the flyweight division in the first of eight matchups pitting Russia against the world, commencing with Dagestan’s Ulanbekov (13-1, 1-0 UFC) against the debuting Brazilian Nascimento (18-5, 0-0 UFC). The gloves get touched in front of referee Dan Movahedi, and let the early morning violence begin! Ulanbekov takes the center of the cage and has his lead leg kicked early. Ulanbekov tries to counter the Brazilian over the top, but Nascimento slips the strike and lands with a few more low kicks. Mixing things up, Nascimento throws out a front kick that collides with the chest and forces Ulanbekov to exhale sharply. Ulanbekov times a leg kick of his own to surprise Nascimento, and he pulls back to ding Nascimento with a right hand on the way out. Ulanbekov leaps in the air with a knee, and Nascimento grabs hold of him and falls on his back from a body lock to drag Ulanbekov into his guard. The Brazilian throws his legs up for a triangle, and although he cannot set it up fully, he does use it to sweep his opponent and put him on his back. Nascimento does not keep his foe grounded for long, as they both walk together up the wall in a tight clinch. A trip from Ulanbekov allows him to plant Nascimento down on the ground again, but Nascimento is quick to defend with a leglock to force Ulanbekov to protect himself. A scramble ensues, and Ulanbekov latches on to a guillotine choke that is incredibly tight. The Brazilian does not panic, instead slowly and miraculously working his way out of the dangerous position even after Ulanbekov mounts him. Although he winds up on his back, Nascimento does escape the submission and stays busy on his back with additional submission setups. Ulanbekov remains in half guard, only to have to fight off a kimura sweep attempt from his opponent. Ulanbekov steps over to free his arm, and the round ends with an armbar attempt from Nascimento.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov

Round 2
Both hands get touched to start off the second round of this fun flyweight fight. Ulanbekov backs off to establish his jab in the early stages of the round, but Nascimento crashes in repeatedly to try to land clubbing power punches. Ulanbekov keeps his opponent at bay long enough to dart in low, and a double leg by Nascimento’s ankles drops the Brazilian to his knees. Nascimento fights his way back to his feet, and after they stall out, Movahedi warns them to keep going. This prompts Ulanbekov to drop low for a single, and although he pulls Nascimento’s leg out beneath him, Nascimento isolates Ulanbekov’s right arm with a kimura trap. Nascimento continues to torque the arm, and he threatens briefly with a triangle off his back as well to turn this armlock into something successful. The Russian does not appear remotely concerned, and he wrenches his arm free from the two-on-one grip while Nascimento’s guard closes around his midsection. Trying to stay busy, a few short elbows get off from Nascimento, who is find himself getting grinded out by the gritty grappler. Nascimento turns his high guard into a triangle try, but that too falls short when Ulanbekov pushes his legs to the side. This opening allows Nascimento to slash at his opponent with unexpectedly heavy elbows, and the looming question may be whether Ulanbekov is winning this lengthy exchange simply by being on top. As Ulanbekov turns to take a better position, Nascimento snatches an armbar, and when there is no tap to be found, he elbows Ulanbekov on the side of the head until and after the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento

Round 3
The flyweights hug it out to start the last round in a competitive battle, and Ulanbekov surges out of his corner to hit a takedown. Nascimento is instantly ready with a kimura sweep, and he turns this into a triangle choke to keep Ulanbekov honest. Like all the previous submission attempts and setups, Ulanbekov pays it little mind and calmly breaks the grip to take comfortable top position. The activity level seems to favor Nascimento at this point, even on his back, as he is constantly throwing his legs up for subs or landing short strikes. The Brazilian’s high guard continues to make Ulanbekov cautious of passing to a better position, although Ulanbekov does work his way over to half guard without exposing himself to possible harm. The Russian grinds his elbow on his opponent’s face, and Movahedi tells them to keep going. Ulanbekov answers the call for action by scoring a solid single elbow that makes Nascimento’s head bounce off the canvas. Ulanbekov clings to Nascimento like a problematic ex, not letting “Puro Osso” get any space to maneuver or finagle any savvy submissions like before. Nascimento rolls to his side, and he is quick to tie up a kimura that he turns to an armbar. Ulanbekov stands up to get a better position, and Nascimento grabs his wrist when he lowers himself into the guard so that he can get hold of a partial armbar. Nascimento continues to kick his legs when Ulanbekov gets out of the submission move, and he stays active while Ulanbekov lands a few partial strikes to end what could be a very, very closely scored matchup.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Ulanbekov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Ulanbekov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Ulanbekov)

The Official Result
Tagir Ulanbekov def. Allan Nascimento via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

Big Brady picks Tagir Ulanbekov to win by decision. He notes that Ulanbekov's wrestling is his bread and butter, with phenomenal control time, and he expects Ulanbekov to take Nascimento down at will. He acknowledges Nascimento is solid but thinks Ulanbekov's wrestling will be the difference, leading to a comfortable decision. He mentions the line of -350 seems a bit off but still picks Ulanbekov.

Ulanbekov by decision
"I think the gear is just going to take him down rinse and repeat anyway a pretty comfortable decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

Cody is hesitant but leans Ulanbekov, noting his excellent wrestling and Dagestani pedigree. However, he acknowledges Ulanbekov looked bad against Bruno Silva and has had many pullouts. He thinks Ulanbekov should win but suggests live betting Nascimento if Ulanbekov gasses. He calls Ulanbekov a potential 'apple pie [__]'.

"i got to go to gear but honestly one way to approach this if you're up at 10 30 in the morning is it could be a good live betting spot"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

Daniel slightly leans with Tagir Ulanbekov, but views it as a pass due to the high price. He notes Ulanbekov has been underwhelming and questions his performances. Daniel acknowledges Nascimento's scrambling ability and thinks the fight could be close. He expects Ulanbekov to win a close decision, especially in Abu Dhabi.

"i slightly lean on beckov i just for a guy that doesn't really put the stamp on things i ain't laying no minus 370"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

Ulanbekov is the better wrestler and scrambles well, likely accruing top control time. Nascimento is a jiu-jitsu guy but Ulanbekov should reverse bad positions. However, the -350 price is too steep until Ulanbekov proves himself in the UFC.

Ulanbekov by decision at +110 is a potential play.
"I do lean ulembakov but it's a little bit difficult to you know pull that trigger at minus 350 on him until we see him truly get comfortable inside the yacht gun."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul passes, citing Ulanbekov's lack of physicality and poor performance against Bruno Silva. He thinks Ulanbekov is a potential 'apple pie [__]' and doesn't want to lay -400. He sees Nascimento as a live dog but doesn't commit.

"straight up pass for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

The MMA Guru picks Tagir Ulanbekov over Allan Nascimento. He notes that Ulanbekov has good pressure and cardio, and expects him to take over in later rounds after Nascimento fades. He sees a similar fight to Ulanbekov's bout with Bruno Silva, where Ulanbekov won by pressuring and winning exchanges. He gives the first round to Nascimento due to his early explosiveness and submission threat, but believes Ulanbekov will win rounds two and three for a 29-28 decision.

"i'm going to give the first round to alan nascamento here because he's very dangerous early but as the rounds go on i'm going to go to guillermo and bekov"
Mitch Raposo - Fight History
SCHED vs Allan Nascimento
CANCEL vs Allan Nascimento
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mitch Raposo

Angelo picks Mitch Raposo as an underdog, noting that Nascimento's striking looked poor in his last fight and that Raposo's striking advantage should prevail if he avoids the ground. He compares the matchup favorably to Raposo's previous win over a wrestler, as Nascimento is more BJJ-oriented.

"I'm going to take a shot at the dog. So, Mitch is going to be the pick and as long as Mitch stays safe and doesn't end up on the ground, I think he dominates the striking here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mitch Raposo

Big Brady picks Mitch Raposo as an underdog, citing his solid wrestling and improved grappling. He notes Raposo's ability to get up from takedowns, as shown against Murzakanov. Brady thinks if Nascimento doesn't get a submission, the fight becomes close, and Raposo's youth and power could edge a split decision. He expects a stinker of a fight.

split decision
"Give me the dog in Mitch Raposo and give me Mitch Raposo by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Cody picks Allan Nascimento, citing his dangerous submission game. He notes that Raposo has improved but Nascimento's grappling is a major threat. He is wary of betting against Nascimento's X-factor.

"Nastos is the pick for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Connor picks Nascimento because he is a fun, good fighter who stays busy on the feet and has a reactive submission game that can catch opponents who close distance recklessly. He notes that Raposo is a wrestle-boxer still figuring out UFC pace, and Nascimento's ability to annoy opponents into mistakes should be too much for him.

Nascimento opened at -350, now -185; Raposo opened at +285, now +160; Connor notes the line movement is unusual but not suspicious
"I will take Nascimento."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Daniel acknowledges Raposo's decent hands but believes Nascimento's ground game is devastating and opportunistic. He thinks if Nascimento gets on top or dangles off the neck, the fight ends quickly. He picks Nascimento to win.

"I'm going to pick Alan Nasimeto to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mitch Raposo

James picks Mitch Raposo as a big underdog, believing his wrestling and striking will neutralize Nascimento's grappling. He thinks Raposo can keep the fight on the feet and outpoint Nascimento, who has poor wrestling and cardio issues.

"I'm going to pick Mitch Raposo here as a massive underdog to come out there and hugely upset Alan Nasimento."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mitch Raposo

The host likes Raposo to replicate his performance against Askarov, using stick-and-move, calf kicks, and countering Nascimento when he crashes the pocket. He believes Raposo's confidence is high and his defensive grappling will keep him safe from submissions. He predicts a decision win, and mentions a possible shot on round three as Nascimento slows.

round three prop
"I like Repos here. It's been 4 and 1/2 years since he's been submitted... confidence under his feet, full training camp, this is a very winnable fight for Repos. So, I'm going to go with the American to get his …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mitch Raposo

Paul picks Mitch Raposo, citing his wrestling and speed advantage. He notes that Nascimento has poor offensive wrestling and low volume striking. He believes Raposo can keep the fight standing and win rounds.

"I actually did take Metropos. I feel like that when you talk about style clashes, Mitch has the style to present Nasimono with a ton of problems."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Allan Nascimento

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Nascimento has a trustworthy reactive submission game and can tap opponents who dive into his guard. He points out that Raposo has been scraping by in the UFC and that Nascimento's pressure should force him into big mistakes. He also mentions that Nascimento's fight with Tajiro Lanbokov was close, showing his level.

Nascimento opened at -350, now -185; Raposo opened at +285, now +160
"I will take Nascimento."
WIN vs Azat Maksum
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Azat Maksum 0 19 of 88 21% 30 of 101 7 of 19 36% 0 0 5:27
Mitch Raposo 0 30 of 66 45% 53 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Azat Maksum 0 4 of 27 14% 9 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Mitch Raposo 0 4 of 18 22% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Azat Maksum 0 12 of 34 35% 15 of 38 3 of 6 50% 0 0 1:24
Mitch Raposo 0 17 of 25 68% 24 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Azat Maksum 0 3 of 27 11% 6 of 30 3 of 11 27% 0 0 1:45
Mitch Raposo 0 9 of 23 39% 21 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Azat Maksum 19 of 88 21% 14 of 80 1 of 3 4 of 5 17 of 85 1 of 2 1 of 1
Mitch Raposo 30 of 66 45% 20 of 50 7 of 13 3 of 3 30 of 65 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Azat Maksum 4 of 27 14% 1 of 22 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mitch Raposo 4 of 18 22% 2 of 14 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Azat Maksum 12 of 34 35% 10 of 32 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 1
Mitch Raposo 17 of 25 68% 10 of 16 4 of 6 3 of 3 17 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Azat Maksum 3 of 27 11% 3 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mitch Raposo 9 of 23 39% 8 of 20 1 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Azat Maksum (129: Missed Weight) vs. Mitch Raposo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Maksum (-325), Raposo (+260)

Round 1
A fight initially booked at 125 pounds between a pair of struggling flyweights will now take place at a catchweight of 129 pounds because Maksum (15-2, 1-2 UFC) felt it was in his best interest to exceed the cap by three pounds. He gives away 30% of his purse to Raposo (9-3, 0-2 UFC) before the latter even sets foot in the ring, and this becomes a must-win for both athletes. Referee Rich Mitchell draws the short straw to handle this preliminary offering, standing back as the two decide against touching gloves.
Maksum moves right to the center of the cage and walks into a clean right hand on the temple. Maksum has to shake it off and stays out of punching range for a time, eventually flashing his jab out a few times to work his distance. He lets fly a body kick that is easily blocked, and Raposo rushes after him with swirling hooks. Maksum evades them and keeps his jab extended to prevent Raposo from crashing the pocket, but Raposo still manages to race at him. Raposo has an overhand right bang into the shoulder, and he escapes before getting countered. Both fighters miss when looking for their jabs, and Maksum smacks his foe’s lead calf to decent effect. Raposo jams Maksum in the jaw with a straight left hand down the pipe, and he looks to follow with a couple hooks. Maksum thanks him for this with a kick to the gut and a takedown shot.
“Kazakh” completes the takedown, putting Raposo on his seat in the blink of an eye. The New England native posts off and works to his feet, leaning on the fencing while Maksum has him from behind looking to get a hook in. Maksum elevates his man from behind after softening him with knees to the thigh and slams Raposo to the mat with a partial suplex. Mitchell asks for more activity when the two grind up against the wall, and he wraps a leg around Raposo’s for an earnest takedown effort. Raposo breaks out of that and puts his back firmly again the chain links, sprawling to defend a low single-leg entry. Maksum’s attempts lead only to Mitchell asking for more, and he abandons it with seconds to go and lets his hooks fly. Raposo zips out of the way and counters with a right hand over the top as the narrow round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maksum
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Maksum
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Maksum

Round 2
Maksum again assumes the center of the Octagon to get going in the round, finally landing a strike at the 20-second mark. Raposo snaps into action with a huge right hand that shakes Maksum up, and as Maksum has to reset, Raposo guns for him with another. Maksum probes out with his distant jab and pecks at Raposo when Raposo unloads with one more massive hook. Maksum tries to defend with a knee shield, and Raposo still reaches him at the end of a punch. Maksum checks a low kick and swats out with a left hook, and Raposo dings him with his overhand right. Raposo slips a punch combo to fire off another, sliding it above Maksum’s forehead. Maksum shoots for a takedown, and Raposo is nowhere to be found.
Raposo lets his foe reset so he can stand in the pocket with him, and stand in the pocket and trade they do. Both men land cleanly, but it appears that Maksum has stung Raposo as Raposo has to backpedal for a moment. The American parries a one-two and swings out a left hand and a right, and Maksum adjusts his nose and shoots for a double-leg takedown. Raposo cannot defend the initial attempt, looking to his corner directly behind him for advice how to at least get back to his seat. He follows their instructions to kick back to his feet, so Maksum lifts him off the ground and slams him down. Raposo wraps up a triangle choke off his back when he hits the mat, and he transitions to an omoplata shoulder lock before Maksum tosses it all aside and nails him with an elbow. Raposo scoots back upright, and Maksum sucks his hips out and puts him back on the floor. Maksum tries for one more mat return, but the round ends in the clinch instead.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Raposo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Raposo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Raposo

Round 3
Like the previous two rounds, Maksum locates himself directly in the center of the Octagon and presses forward. Raposo meets him in the middle and throws hands, only for Maksum to scoop him off his feet and put him on the floor. Raposo wall-walks to get back upright, leaning his weight on the fence to take some of the pressure off of him. Maksum hits a suplex to put Raposo on the floor, and the American rebounds easily to put his back to the wall again. Raposo pummels to break out of the clinch, and he walks down “Kazakh” loaded for bear. He scores a right hand over the top and leans to evade the counter, and dips in to pop Maksum in the chops with a shovel left. Maksum walks Raposo down around the cage and pushes a front kick after him, and Raposo replies with a spirited overhand right. Raposo shuts down a takedown shot and threatens with his right hand.
Raposo puts everything behind his big swings, and Maksum takes advantage of one with a deep double-leg shot. When Raposo shuts it down, Maksum transitions to a single, looking for anything to work with but unable to find it. Raposo breaks free and dodges a front kick, and he loads up on power punches. Raposo goes with a right to the body and left to the head, and Maksum shoots low and is shut down. Raposo pushes Maksum to the ground, and Maksum blatantly grabs the fence to reverse his position and stop a takedown from materializing. Mitchell is enraged by the foul, pausing the action and deduction a point for the fight-altering foul. It is unclear if Maksum understands, but one point is one point and likely a major factor as only a few seconds are left in the fight. Raposo is the one to push the pace despite Maksum being down on the scorecards, and Maksum flips his foe to the floor but cannot keep him there for more than a second. The horn blares, and another betting upset may be in the cards.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Raposo (29-27 Raposo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Raposo (29-27 Raposo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Raposo (29-27 Raposo)

The Official Result
Mitch Raposo def. Azat Maksum via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 29-27, 29-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Azat Maksum

Angelo picks Azat Maksum, emphasizing his well-rounded skills and composure. He argues that Azat's losses are close fights against established opponents, while Mitch Raposo's wins are less impressive. Angelo is surprised Azat is only minus 350, calling it an insult compared to Hamdy's minus 450 line.

The fact that Azat Maksum is only minus 350, and Hamdy is minus 450 is absurd.
"Azat should dominate here. The odds kind of indicate that at minus 350. ... Azat is the pick, and the fact that he is a lesser favorite than Hamdy Abdolvahhab is an insult to MMA."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Azat Maksum

Big Brady is high on Azat Maksum, believing he is a top-15 flyweight with top-10 upside. He notes Maksum's impressive takedown ability against Tagir Ulanbekov and sees a clear path to victory via grappling against Mitch Raposo, who has been taken down and submitted easily in the past. Brady expects Maksum to finally put it all together and make a statement, predicting a first-round submission.

Maksum by first round submission
"I think he eventually finds a submission here. I think he goes to the grappling. I think he taps out Mitch Raposo in round number one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Azat Maksum

Cody picks Azat Maksum, noting that Raposo's wrestling is not enough to win fights, as he lacks control time and striking. Maksum has shown he can wrestle and strike, and has fought tough competition. Cody believes Maksum will win a decision, possibly close, but should get the nod in Abu Dhabi.

"it's a is a As at Maxim play for me here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Azat Maksum

Connor picks Maksum, noting that Raposo does not do enough volume and has poor footwork, constantly circling to his weak side. He believes Maksum, despite being a low-output fighter, is more proactive and can set up takedowns with his strikes. Connor also points out that Raposo's striking output is very low (1.62 strikes per minute) and that he is not effective at this level.

Maksum is a serious favorite at -415.
"I have to take Maksum. I just think what we've seen from Raposo so far is he just simply cannot deliver enough volume to be effective."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Azat Maksum

Daniel Vreeland believes Maksum is too big, physical, and skilled for Raposo, who he considers too small for the UFC. He notes that Maksum has faced much tougher competition and that Raposo's regional scene is weak. He predicts Maksum will dominate and possibly finish, but acknowledges the -400 price is steep given Maksum's close UFC fights.

"I'm going to take Azat Maxum to get back on track this Saturday in Abu Dhabi."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Azat Maksum

Lucrative James picks Azat Maksum, predicting a submission win. He believes Maksum is more skilled in boxing and striking, and has excellent anti-grappling as shown against Tiger Ulybekov. He expects Raposo to shoot takedowns, but Maksum can reverse or submit him. He notes Maksum's tendency to fight to the level of his competition but still favors him heavily.

submission
"I'm going to pick AZ Maxim for this one. I'm going to pick him via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Azat Maksum

The host notes that Raposo has been given the benefit of the doubt in recent fights but sees this as a bad matchup for him. He expects Maksum to stuff takedowns, control the striking, and possibly land his own takedowns, grinding out a decision win.

decision
"Look for Maxim to stuff the takedowns of Raposo and control the striking realm... I think Maxim ends up grinding this fight out and winning it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Azat Maksum

Paul also picks Maksum, citing Raposo's risk-averse style and lack of power. He notes that Maksum has good takedown defense and can strike, while Raposo relies on takedowns that may not score well with judges. Paul expects a decision win for Maksum.

"Maxim should get it. At minus 400, is it feel great? No. No. But Raposo's just really not showing you anything that would lead to me believe that he's going to outright win this thing in convincing fashion in enemy …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Azat Maksum

The MMA Guru picks Azat Maksum by 30-27 decision, but warns of a possible split decision due to bias. He believes Maksum has a height and reach advantage, and will win scrambles and grappling exchanges. He criticizes Mitch Raposo (referred to as Mitrione Vusa in transcript) for low output and being overhyped by commentary. He notes that Maksum fought Tagir Ulanbekov closely and should have won rounds, while Raposo has been given undeserved split decisions.

"I'm going to go with Azamat Maxim. I think he can get down Mitrione Vusa and also go for some like back takes and stuff like that."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Azat Maksum

Zane agrees, citing Raposo's inability to put together enough work. He notes that Maksum, while not dangerous, is at least capable of being proactive and using strikes to set up takedowns. Zane also highlights that Raposo's footwork constantly takes him out of range and position, making him ineffective.

"I'll take the high-volume low danger over low-volume low danger or you know, even low-volume high danger really honestly at flyweight."
LOSS vs Sumudaerji
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sumudaerji 0 45 of 114 39% 78 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mitch Raposo 0 9 of 26 34% 13 of 30 6 of 19 31% 0 0 4:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sumudaerji 0 11 of 30 36% 17 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mitch Raposo 0 5 of 12 41% 8 of 15 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:05
2 Sumudaerji 0 14 of 39 35% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mitch Raposo 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:16
3 Sumudaerji 0 20 of 45 44% 44 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mitch Raposo 0 2 of 9 22% 3 of 10 3 of 6 50% 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sumudaerji 45 of 114 39% 25 of 84 5 of 8 15 of 22 39 of 104 6 of 10 0 of 0
Mitch Raposo 9 of 26 34% 8 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sumudaerji 11 of 30 36% 5 of 18 1 of 3 5 of 9 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mitch Raposo 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Sumudaerji 14 of 39 35% 6 of 27 1 of 2 7 of 10 14 of 38 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mitch Raposo 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sumudaerji 20 of 45 44% 14 of 39 3 of 3 3 of 3 14 of 36 6 of 9 0 of 0
Mitch Raposo 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Su Mudaerji vs. Mitch Raposo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mudaerji (-185), Raposo (+154)

Round 1
The lone flyweight contest of the evening plays out next, between two men who could reach a .500 UFC record should they prevail. Mudaerji (16-7, 3-4 UFC), the far more experienced fighter of the two, is aiming to notch his first win since 2021. Massachusetts native Raposo (9-2, 0-1 UFC) would like to spoil that party and hand his Chinese opponent his walking papers, and referee Andrew Glenn will be there every step of the way. Gloves are touched before they are traded, and chants of “USA” in favor of Raposo rain down in the building. Mudaerji takes the center of the cage and fights behind his jab, using his superior reach to poke and prod. Raposo closes the distance and connects with a series of punches before bouncing away to avoid the counter. Mudaerji misses the mark on a one-two, and Raposo zings him back with a trio of fists. Mudaerji pitches out low kicks, frustrating the New Englander into shooting on his hips. Mudaerji defends with his back against the wall and breaks free, and he reaches out with an inaccurate side kick. Mudaerji lets fly a high kick that bounces off the guard, and he skirts out of the way of a looping left hand. Raposo surges forward swinging his arms, and Mudaerji’s range gives him issues as he kicks him from far enough away to not get caught back. Mudaerji thumps up the lead leg with a kick that forces a stance switch, and Raposo sprints forward and takes Mudaerji off his feet with a tackling takedown. Mudaerji easily posts off the mat to stand back up, and he Granby rolls to attempt to escape. Raposo follows him, arms wrapped around the waist from behind, and he leans Mudaerji against the wire and starts kneeing him. Raposo hangs on to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves, and Raposo quickly gets on his bike to strafe laterally and find a way in. Mudaerji chips at him with leg kicks, aiming at the thigh and knee rather than the calf. Raposo’s leg shows welts all over it, and he struggles to fire back. Although Mudaerji beats him to the punch with a one-two, Raposo’s right hand grazes the cheek in response. Raposo shoots in for a double-leg takedown, and Mudaerji scoots his way to the wire to defend and break out of it. Mudaerji pokes out with a jab and a low kick, and the crowd starts to shower the fighters with boos at the perceived lack of activity. Raposo tries to answer their calls for action with a looping left hand, and Mudaerji snipes him with a one-two and leans back to avoid another big left. Mudaerji flies by his opponent when attempting a jump knee, and he lands and kicks the front leg only to get checked. Mudaerji stumbles back and points at Raposo, and then offers a few more kicks. When Mudaerji misses a spinning wheel kick by a matter of inches, Raposo’s eyes light up as he charges like a bull and takes Mudaerji clear off his feet with a takedown. The Chinese fighter climbs back to his feet, only to be met with a mat return. As he gets up again, Mudaerji breaks off and flashes out a jab. The jab quickly bloodies Raposo’s nose up, who shoots for a single-leg takedown and finds the taller, longer fighter able to easily stifle his shot. Raposo doggedly pursues the takedown, and Mudaerji’s balance holds up until the horn blares. The crowd is not amused.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji

Round 3
Hands are clapped to begin the final frame, and Mudaerji reassumes Octagon control and uses his rangy punches and kicks to keep Raposo at bay. Raposo presses forward to unload a big right hand, and Mudaerji pushes him back with jabs that further bloody the Massachusetts native’s nose up. Raposo moves left and right, with Mudaerji chasing him around, and Glenn has to ask for them to fight because they do not engage with much in the first 90 seconds. When they throw, they are largely out of range, with Mudaerji the more accurate of the two. As he reaches out with a right hand, Raposo shoots in on his hips and dumps him to the mat. Mudaerji wall-walks to get back up easily, elbowing on the break and returning to his kickboxing approach. When Raposo leans and sways, Mudaerji times him with a combination. Mudaerji kicks low, and Raposo signals that he was kicked in the groin. Glenn calls time, and the crowd boos in disbelief that it was a foul. The replay shows it was a legal blow, and Glenn tells them to fight on. Fight on they do, with Mudaerji letting his hands go for a second while Raposo throws back hard—but misses. Raposo grapples Mudaerji to the mat, and Mudaerji bounces back to his feet as if he had springs in his seat. Raposo leans heavily when clinched up, hoping to take some of the weapons away from the “Tibetan Eagle,” and he hunts for a mat return and drags Mudaerji to a knee. Mudaerji returns upright and smacks Raposo from around his head, and he brilliantly sprawls to shut Raposo’s attempt down. Raposo gains a full head of steam and charges in, completing a double only to learn very quickly that Mudaerji does not stay down for even one second. Raposo clings tightly looking for wrestling, and Mudaerji elbows him in the face three times until the less-than-stellar matchup comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)

The Official Result
Su Mudaerji def. Mitch Raposo via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Sumudaerji

Daniel Levi questions how Mitch Raposo lost every round against Sumudaerji yet still got a split decision. He implies Sumudaerji clearly won, expressing confusion about the judging.

"How does Mitch Raposo lose every round against Sumu Deer? Maybe win one round if you want to be nice and they still a split decision."
LOSS vs André Lima
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
André Lima 0 32 of 76 42% 32 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:09
Mitch Raposo 0 51 of 100 51% 52 of 101 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 André Lima 0 7 of 20 35% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mitch Raposo 0 17 of 29 58% 17 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 André Lima 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
Mitch Raposo 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 André Lima 0 17 of 32 53% 17 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Mitch Raposo 0 21 of 42 50% 22 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
André Lima 32 of 76 42% 20 of 58 12 of 18 0 of 0 32 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mitch Raposo 51 of 100 51% 14 of 47 7 of 12 30 of 41 49 of 98 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 André Lima 7 of 20 35% 6 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mitch Raposo 17 of 29 58% 4 of 10 1 of 2 12 of 17 17 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 André Lima 8 of 24 33% 3 of 17 5 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mitch Raposo 13 of 29 44% 3 of 11 2 of 5 8 of 13 13 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 André Lima 17 of 32 53% 11 of 24 6 of 8 0 of 0 17 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mitch Raposo 21 of 42 50% 7 of 26 4 of 5 10 of 11 19 of 40 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Andre Lima (130: Missed Weight) vs. Mitch Raposo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lima (-218), Raposo (+180)

Round 1
Just a little over a year ago, the promotion turned to an old favorite city it used to frequent back in the mid-2010s, putting on an interesting title fight with a non-title five-rounder in the co-headliner spot. The UFC swings back again in relative short order, deciding to post up outside of New York City while still drawing plenty of eyeballs. As a note, this will be the first event to feature the newly designed gloves, ones that were touted to reduce eye pokes. A dozen bouts with plenty of ranking’s significance from women’s 135 pounds all the way up to pound-for-pound consideration will play out, but the first of 12 has zero relevance in that metric because it comes at an unplanned catchweight. Raposo (9-1, 0-0 UFC) and his shiny new contract will contend with the heavy Lima (8-0, 1-0 UFC), who appears to still be reeling from his “Charlie Bit Me” incident against Igor da Silva in March. Referee Herb Dean will make sure no chomping happens this time around, and the fight begins with a glove touch. Lima moves to the center of the cage, walking Raposo down, and he sits down on a heavy calf kick that immediately forces a stance switch. Raposo finds a way in and dives forward with two punches, and Lima bats them away and chops at the calf hard while chants of “USA” rain down against him. Lima goes for another kick low down to the calf, and each time he has struck it, Raposo has changed stances. Raposo replies with a rapid-fire combination to keep Lima honest, but Lima does not pay it much mind as he attacks the front leg once more. Raposo lashes out with a pair of punches, and Lima’s composure never wavers and instead pounds the front leg twice after a stance switch from the Massachusetts native. Raposo strides forward to throw hands, and Lima intercepts him with a crisp knee up the middle. When Raposo settles down, Lima blasts his front leg, and Raposo shakes his leg out in response. Lima keeps battering either lead leg that is presented to him, and Raposo tries to check one by turning his shin in, and the sound of the shins clacking together echoes in the cage. Raposo circles his way into punch strings, but his general lack of offense prompts a clapping of Dean to fight more. Lima nails the lead when once more, prompting Raposo to let go with hands to the body. Lima turns his hips into a particularly harsh leg kick, and Raposo spins all the way around to get his bearings. Lima pushes off with his fingers outstretched, grazing Raposo’s eye, and Raposo waves Dean off and unloads a right hand that catches the Brazilian standing still. Lima lets loose with two high kicks that bounce off the guard, and he is warned for his fingers pointed towards his foe’s face. Lima keeps working on the front legs of his opponent, allowing Raposo to change his stance so he can smack the other. This continues until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lima

Round 2
The fighters clap hands to lead off the second round, and Raposo is much more active to get going. A few series of punches come from the American, with quick hands largely targeting the body. Lima no-sells the punches and continues stalking Raposo down, where he chambers and releases a head kick that slams into the guard. Lima attempts another step-in knee, and he parries the oncoming punches when Raposo tries to close the distance. Lima drills the front calf with a kick, and Raposo backpedals and considers a stance switch but would rather present his left leg. Raposo comes up short on a haymaker, and Lima allows him to fall off-balance so he can work the leg again. Raposo targets the body with punches, and Lima switches up to attack the inside of his adversary’s legs with ruthless kicks. Lima cuts Raposo off, and Raposo tries to drive him back with a trio of punches that all get blocked. Lima slams his shin into Raposo’s calf, and he pushes out his finger and swipes Raposo in the eye. Dean calls time and issues Lima a hard warning, and Lima gives an apology. They restart, and Raposo reaches him with a left hand. Lima comes back at him with low kicks, and Dean once more admonishes the Brazilian for his fingers pointed out. Lima fakes a kick, and Raposo jumps away with a major reaction. Lima pokes his man in the eye, and Raposo steps back and wipes his eye. A confused moment for both fighters results in Dean telling Lima to be careful, and they restart again. Raposo shoots for a takedown and hits it, and Lima blatantly grabs the cage to pull himself back up to his feet. Lima chases Raposo down and kicks him a few more times before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lima

Round 3
The fighters tap hands together to get going, and Raposo gives chase early to throw hands. Raposo swipes out with overhand rights, and Lima calmly backs him off with a straight right hand in response. Lima gets off a low kick, and he fires a second one off to the ribs. Lima reaches out with a right hand and a front kick to the solar plexus, and he springs away from a double jab. The Brazilian fearlessly stalks forward, setting up a heavy body kick and seemingly unconcerned about anything Raposo gives back. The two men trade body shots, and Lima follows one with a kick down at the base of the calf. Lima plants a second kick down low, and Raposo’s punch salvo ricochets off the raised guard. Lima splits the guard with a left hand, and Raposo walks through it and gives one single blow back. Lima slaps the front leg with yet another kick, and a second is checked. Raposo slips in a left hand, but it is one-and-done before he backpedals. Lima measures a straight left hand, and Raposo stands him up with an uppercut and a left hand. Raposo ducks and connects with a left hand, and Lima frazzles him with two leg kicks that briefly put him down. Raposo bounces up and away from a sweeping body kick, and Lima manages to find him with a sharp jab. Raposo tries to attempt a takedown, only for Lima to toss him aside and push him to the wall. Lima gets off one knee before they split up, and he chases after Raposo until the fight wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima (30-27 Lima)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima (30-27 Lima)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lima (30-27 Lima)

The Official Result
Andre Lima def. Mitch Raposo via Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
André Lima

Angelo acknowledges that Mitch Raposo is skilled and could win with a full camp, but the short notice, distractions from friends/family, and the step up in competition lead him to pick André Lima. He notes the odds are too far gone for him to bet. He respects Raposo's abilities but feels the circumstances favor Lima.

Jacob has a bet on this fight (premium member only)
"I am not picking him to win I think the short notice matters... Andre Lima is also good so I'm going to pick Andre LMA to win because of the short notice Factor here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mitch Raposo

Big Brady thinks Mitch Raposo is live as a dog, with a path to get the fight to the mat via takedowns. He notes André Lima's takedown defense is a major concern. However, Raposo is on short notice, which worries him. He expects a close fight if it goes the distance.

Mitch Raposo wins by decision or submission
"mitoso 7,600 just another dog I think is is live here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
André Lima

Cody picks Lima, criticizing Raposo's level of competition and short-notice fight. He notes Raposo is a career bridesmaid who lost on The Ultimate Fighter and Contender Series. Cody believes Lima's size, strength, and kickboxing will be too much. He expects Lima to win by decision or late TKO, and mentions Raposo's takedowns may not be effective against Lima's scrambling.

"Raposo is a career bridesmaid... he's taking this fight on little over a week's notice... Lima is bigger, stronger... I got to go with Lima."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
André Lima

Daniel praises Lima's striking, athleticism, and takedown defense. He dismisses Raposo's regional wins as against cans and notes Raposo's short notice. He expects Lima to get a finish.

"I think that Andre Lima is gonna get his first official UFC finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mitch Raposo

The host believes Raposo's pace, pressure, and wrestling will overwhelm Lima, who has cardio issues. Raposo's calf kicking and improved striking give him confidence, and his gas tank should allow him to grind out a win via control time and damage. Lima's power is a threat early, but Raposo's durability and wrestling volume should carry him to a decision victory.

"I like him as an underdog to kick off the card here at plus 185 getting a win in his UFC debut."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
André Lima

Paul picks Lima, noting his technical kickboxing and size advantage. He mentions Lima's win over Igor Severino (by DQ due to bite) and believes Lima's striking will be too much for Raposo. Paul notes Raposo is taking the fight on short notice and has struggled to get over the hump. He expects Lima to win by decision or late finish.

"Andre Lima has tight technical kickboxing... he's a Brazilian kickboxing champion... I got to go with Lima to get the job done."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
André Lima

The MMA Guru picks André Lima regardless of opponent, noting that Lima has good takedown defense and fundamentally correct grappling defense. He mentions that Lima's opponent (either Mitch Raposo or a short-notice replacement) is not a threat, and that Lima's kickboxing background will prevail. He also points out that the opponent looked mediocre on Road to UFC.

"I'm picking Andre lemur regardless of who shows up against him"