Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Karol Rosa	0	33 of 58	56%	190 of 224	2 of 3	66%	2	0	11:25
Nora Cornolle	0	27 of 47	57%	75 of 98	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Karol Rosa	0	18 of 34	52%	29 of 47	0 of 1	0%	0	0	2:03
Nora Cornolle	0	24 of 37	64%	45 of 59	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
2	Karol Rosa	0	7 of 11	63%	77 of 84	1 of 1	100%	2	0	4:53
Nora Cornolle	0	0 of 3	0%	6 of 9	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
3	Karol Rosa	0	8 of 13	61%	84 of 93	1 of 1	100%	0	0	4:29
Nora Cornolle	0	3 of 7	42%	24 of 30	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Karol Rosa	33 of 58	56%	25 of 47	6 of 8	2 of 3	14 of 35	6 of 6	13 of 17
Nora Cornolle	27 of 47	57%	15 of 33	4 of 4	8 of 10	17 of 36	10 of 11	0 of 0

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Karol Rosa	18 of 34	52%	10 of 24	6 of 7	2 of 3	12 of 28	6 of 6	0 of 0
Nora Cornolle	24 of 37	64%	14 of 26	4 of 4	6 of 7	14 of 27	10 of 10	0 of 0
2	Karol Rosa	7 of 11	63%	7 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 3	0 of 0	6 of 8
Nora Cornolle	0 of 3	0%	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Karol Rosa	8 of 13	61%	8 of 12	0 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 4	0 of 0	7 of 9
Nora Cornolle	3 of 7	42%	1 of 4	0 of 0	2 of 3	3 of 6	0 of 1	0 of 0

Nora Cornolle vs. Karol Rosa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosa (-180); Cornolle (+150)

Round 1
The final women’s match of the evening comes at 135 pounds, in a wide-open division where a contender likely need only amass three or four wins to get a crack at gold. Rosa (18-7, 7-4 UFC) has alternated wins and losses in her last eight outings while hearing the final bell for the entirety of her UFC run. On the other side of the equation, French muay thai practitioner Cornolle (9-2, 3-1 UFC) has only claimed one career win on the scorecards. They will tangle under the watchful eye of referee Kerry Hatley. Gloves are touched before they are traded.
Cornolle gets right to business, walking Rosa down with a body kick and a few punches. Rosa’s back hit the wall, and she fires right back to force the Frenchwoman back. Cornolle resets and lands a low kick, hopping away from a counter to connect with one more. A brief clinch leads to nothing, so Rosa reaches out with a right hand. Cornolle does the same, following with a left and then backing off. Cornolle sits down on a hard low kick, getting countered with two punches upstairs. Cornolle tries for a standing hammerfist, and Rosa tags her with counters as she circles away. Cornolle splits the guard with a right hand, and the two tie up as Rosa pushes her to the wall. Rosa changes levels but is stood up, and Cornolle frames off with an elbow. Cornolle plants her shin on Rosa’ lead leg, and she sways back to evade a looping right hand.
Cornolle has another leg kick countered with three punches up top, and Rosa follows with a one-two but the French striker has her guard up in time. Cornolle initiates a clinch, and Rosa turns her about and jams her up against the fence. Rosa ties up Cornolle’s leg for a trip attempt, but she does not get it. They knee one another on the inside and Cornolle tries to loop big punches when she gains a modicum of space. Rosa keeps her high and tight, kneeing her a few more times even as Cornolle has her elbow smushed in to the Brazilian’s face. Cornolle forces the break with her elbows, and she gets to walking Cornolle down and elbows her in the cheek. The clinch is engaged in the middle of the cage, where Cornolle delivers some knees to the body and is pressed to the fence. Cornolle escapes thanks to her elbows once more, and swelling is growing fast on Rosa’s left cheek. Cornolle knees her foe in the face twice as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cornolle
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Cornolle
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Cornolle

Round 2
Cornolle stalks her foe down to get going, putting hands right in Rosa’s face. Rosa responds immediately with a takedown shot, putting the Frenchwoman on her back in seconds. Cornolle hits her back and defends with a kimura, keeping a two-on-one wrist lock on Rosa’s left arm. Rosa uses her free right hand to smack Cornolle in the side to little effect, and she switches to elbow that land with small but growingly impactful thuds.
Cornolle tries to sit up, but Rosa gloms onto her and pushes her flat to her back. Rosa steps into full mount, and she fastens an arm-triangle mount that starts to smother the woman named “Wonder.” Rosa releases the grip to land some body shots, and she adjusts her arms again. When she does not secure it, she switches back to light punches to the side. Rosa stays heavy rather than sitting up to unload with power, and when she does, Cornolle sits up. Rosa flirts with a rear-naked choke that Cornolle defends without issue, but Rosa is still dominating her threatening with something or other. Rosa grasps hold of a brute force rear-naked choke that is on the nose, and she lets it go so she does not gas her arms out. Rosa bludgeons with ground strikes until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rosa

Round 3
The two women come out swinging, with Cornolle trying to pay Rosa back from the last round. Rosa goes back to her grappling quickly, tackling the Frenchwoman to the floor with relative ease and crawling on top of her into half guard. Rosa presses her shoulder down heavily on the side of Cornolle’s neck, grinding out her opponent rather than sitting up to inflict damage. Rosa scores a few pitter-patter body shots as she exerts top pressure, and Cornolle slashes and hacks at her off her back with stern elbows. The Brazilian hops to the other side, still in half guard, and Cornolle looks to her corner for answers.
Rosa loops her right arm beneath Cornolle’s neck and pushes her shoulder down on the windpipe for a one-armed arm-triangle choke, keeping Cornolle stuck on her back with no escape. Rosa stifles Cornolle from getting out, following her every twist and turn with the proper counter to remain on top. Cornolle tries to kick off with upkicks, and even lands an illegal one as Hatley lightly admonishes her for this. Rosa sits on top of her foe, bopping her with hammerfists until Cornolle turns to her side. Rosa tries for some kind of choke as she wraps her arms around the Frenchwoman, and she lets Cornolle turn over so she can work her over with punches. Rosa continues swinging, landing some to the back of the head as she turns it up in the last seconds. When time expires, the only question will be whether Rosa earned 10-8 scores in Rounds 2, 3 or both. The Brazilian keeps her decision streak intact, having gone the distance in all 12 of her UFC outings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Rosa)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-8 Rosa (29-27 Rosa)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Rosa)

The Official Result
Karol Rosa def. Nora Cornolle via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-27, 29-27)

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Connor picks Rosa, noting that Cornolle's only effective tool is clinch striking, and Rosa should be able to avoid that by using her range and volume. He acknowledges Rosa's inconsistency but believes even on a bad night she can outwork Cornolle, who has a very narrow path to victory.

"I think Hossa can pull it out as well, even on a bad night too."

MMA Vivisection

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Zane also picks Rosa, emphasizing that Cornolle's game is one-dimensional and Rosa has the tools to keep the fight at range. He notes that only Jacqueline Cavalcanti has beaten Cornolle by fighting technically at distance, and Rosa can replicate that. Zane warns that Rosa could fall into Cornolle's clinch, but believes she is unlikely to get out-wrestled or out-paced.

"I think so too. I do. She's unlikely to get out wrestled. She's unlikely to get out paced."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Ailín Pérez

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Ailín Pérez	0	53 of 112	47%	120 of 182	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Karol Rosa	0	62 of 131	47%	81 of 155	2 of 8	25%	0	0	4:15

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Ailín Pérez	18 of 25	72%	48 of 56	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Karol Rosa	13 of 23	56%	21 of 33	1 of 4	25%	2:08
2	Ailín Pérez	11 of 33	33%	45 of 68	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Karol Rosa	16 of 41	39%	27 of 53	1 of 3	33%	1:50
3	Ailín Pérez	24 of 54	44%	27 of 58	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Karol Rosa	33 of 67	49%	33 of 69	0 of 1	0%	0:17

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Ailín Pérez	53 of 112	47%	20 of 67	6 of 11	27 of 34	49 of 105	2 of 5	2 of 2
Karol Rosa	62 of 131	47%	28 of 87	11 of 17	23 of 27	56 of 121	2 of 3	4 of 7

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Ailín Pérez	18 of 25	72%	8 of 14	1 of 2	9 of 9	16 of 22	0 of 1	2 of 2
1	Karol Rosa	13 of 23	56%	10 of 18	1 of 1	2 of 4	9 of 16	2 of 2	2 of 5
2	Ailín Pérez	11 of 33	33%	6 of 24	0 of 1	5 of 8	10 of 31	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Karol Rosa	16 of 41	39%	5 of 25	6 of 10	5 of 6	14 of 38	0 of 1	2 of 2
3	Ailín Pérez	24 of 54	44%	6 of 29	5 of 8	13 of 17	23 of 52	1 of 2	0 of 0
3	Karol Rosa	33 of 67	49%	13 of 44	4 of 6	16 of 17	33 of 67	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Ailin Perez vs. Karol Rosa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosa (-265), Perez (+215)

Round 1
Since making her promotional debut in 2019, Rosa (18-6, 7-3 UFC) has gone to decision in all 10 of her UFC outings. The Brazilian may tie a record if she hears the final bell against Perez (11-2, 4-1 UFC)—but the only decisions for Perez have come when she won the fight. Serving as the only women’s match of the evening, the ladies try to do their division justice and improve on the paltry finish rate that marred last year. They will do so as referee Mike Beltran takes charge of the cage. A fist bump starts the action, and Rosa assumes the center of the cage to get going. Slowly walking towards the Argentinian, Rosa ignores incoming leg kicks so she can let her hands go. Perez charges her, clinching up with a body lock to try for a takedown, and Rosa slides away and breaks free. As she marches forward again, Rosa lets go with a right hand, and Perez times a tackling takedown to put the Brazilian on her back. Landing in half guard, Perez gets right to work with grinding top control. The action stalls out with Perez dragged back to the full guard, as she lands the occasional blow and amassing plenty of control time. Perez passes to half guard on the other side, and Rosa actively pushes off the leg and launches an upkick to make Perez turn away and back off. Rosa punches her way into another exchange, where she stuffs a takedown and flicks out a jab at the end of it. Perez connects with three punches and darts away before getting caught, and she reaches down in hopes of catching a leg kick to attempt a takedown. Rosa tosses her out of the way and hammers the midsection with a right hand, and both ladies reset. Perez times a spinning back fist as Rosa advances, and Rosa gives her back a low kick to think about. Perez attempts high kick, and she fails to check a low kick when planting. Rosa keeps chewing up the lead leg of her opponent, forcing a stance switch. Perez waves on Rosa to come at her, but the round ends before she can.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez

Round 2
Perez leads off the round with peppering low kicks, keeping Rosa at bay early. Rosa jabs her way forward, and she whips a low kick up that appears to slap into Perez’ groin. Beltran calls time, and Perez takes a few seconds before getting back to it. They resume trading leg kicks, and Rosa overswings a right hand that allows Perez to clinch her. Rosa gets out of the tie-up to push out a jab, and she defends a takedown shot with relative ease. Perez paws out a front kick, and she raises her leg in time to stop a low kick from harming her. Rosa keeps her hands up to block a one-two, and she parries a spinning back fist and a body kick while pressing forward. Perez jumps at her with a knee, and Rosa pushes it to the side and punches her in the face. Perez works the body with a kick, and she backs off when a one-two is fired down the pipe. Perez scores a spinning back fist, lands and releases a body kick before Rosa can get to her. Rosa settles down, loops a right hand over the guard, and is out of range before a counter gets to her. Rosa puts two punches on the jaw and pops Perez with a flying knee, but the subsequent takedown attempt slows her down. Rosa defends the first try, but the second effort by the Argentinian leads to her securing top position, landing in half guard. Perez prefers position over offense when getting the fight down, clinging to her foe and softening her up with the occasional blow. Perez hangs on in an arm-triangle setup, only to get bucked back to the guard when it starts getting close. The round ends with both women striking while horizontal, and it might go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez

Round 3
There is a double touch of gloves to begin the last round, and Perez paws out her left hand to start things off. They connect at the same time with alternating single punches, and then back away to reset. Perez scores a low kick and gets popped with a left hook, but it is one-and-done for the Brazilian. Rosa aims an overhand right at the target, and it brushes past “Fiona,” who chambers and fires two kicks in rapid succession. Rosa stalks down her adversary and jackhammers her with an inside low kick that makes Perez stumble and change stances. Perez returns fire with her own calf kick, and Rosa no-sells it and hacks at the front wheel. Rosa ducks a telegraphed spinning back fist and checks a few low kicks while pressing ahead, and her landed leg kick consistently gets Perez’ attention. Two big punches from Rosa force Perez to tie her up, and she cannot hold her for long before Rosa breaks away. Rosa nails the front leg with a kick that makes Perez wince, and some swelling develops above Perez’ left eye. Rosa stays in her foe’s face, keeping just out of range of the flying strikes so she can sit down on left hooks and leg kicks. Perez is compromised but still in the fight, and at the 90-second mark, Rosa does not appear to be aggressive to the point of forcing a finish. Instead, Rosa remains composed, slowly chipping away at either leg and jabbing her way forward. Perez smacks Rosa upside the head with a right hand, and Rosa stalks her around the cage lobbing punches and heavy kicks. Perez pushes her back with front kicks and a stomping kick to the knee, but Rosa decides to take a page out of her playbook and spin to strike. There is no finish, and the bantamweights go the distance to likely set a record for Rosa starting her UFC run with 11 straight decisions.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Perez)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Perez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Perez)

The Official Result
Ailin Perez def. Karol Rosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Ailín Pérez

Angelo picks Ailín Pérez as an underdog, believing her wrestling and forward pressure will be too much for Karol Rosa, who hasn't faced a strong wrestler recently. He notes that Rosa's takedown defense is untested against a wrestler of Pérez's style. He has a small bet on Pérez at +150 and is surprised the odds are widening instead of tightening.

Small bet half a unit on Ailín Pérez at +150; may double down or bet +3.5 rounds for cushion.

"I think aen Perez actually does win this fight I love her as an underdog I have a small little bed on her half a unit"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Ailín Pérez

Cody picks Ailín Pérez as an underdog, citing her wrestling and top control. He notes that Pérez has taken down all her UFC opponents and has improved rapidly at Fortis MMA. Rosa has poor takedown defense and no get-up game once taken down, as seen against Sarah McMahon and Norma Dumont. Cody believes Pérez will take Rosa down, control her, and win rounds. He also mentions that Rosa has no power and all her wins are by decision, so Pérez only needs to win the first two rounds.

No specific prop bet mentioned.

"iien ien Perez sign me up Paul come on"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Ailín Pérez

Daniel picks Pérez for the upset, noting that he has lost money betting on Rosa multiple times. He believes Pérez's relentless takedown attack and improved standup will be key. Daniel thinks if Pérez takes Rosa down, she can win. He mentions that Rosa has poor takedown defense and has faded in fights.

Daniel says he is not trying to lose money on Rosa for a fourth time. He picks Pérez to win.

"I'm gonna go with Eileen Perez for the upset"

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Lucrative James picks Karol Rosa, stating she is the better overall MMA fighter with superior striking, cardio, experience, and grappling. He acknowledges Ailín Pérez's tenacious wrestling and potential to cause problems early, but notes Pérez's poor cardio and striking, which often leads to her fading in round three. James observes that Rosa typically has her best round in the third, while Pérez fades, making a late stoppage or decision win for Rosa likely. He understands the appeal of Pérez as a big underdog due to her grappling, but ultimately favors Rosa's well-rounded game.

"I have to pick Carol Roser in this fight but I understand if you're taking Perez as a massive Underdog just because of the potential that this is women's MMA kind of close fight"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Karol Rosa

The host believes Rosa has a significant striking advantage and can stay upright against Perez's grinding grappling. He expects Rosa to chop away at the lead leg and possibly muster a late finish, but ultimately win on the scorecards.

"I'm going to go with HOSA and HOSA to win this fight on the scorecards"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Ailín Pérez

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Pérez. He notes that if the fight becomes a grappling match, Pérez has the advantage. Paul acknowledges that Pérez's cardio has been problematic in round three, but believes she can win the first two rounds. At plus 210, he sees plenty of value. He also mentions that Rosa has no power, so Pérez can afford to slow down late.

No specific prop bet mentioned.

"at plus 210 they're giving me plenty of meat on the bone too to take a shot there so I'm with you"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Karol Rosa over Ailín Pérez. He argues that Rosa is better at MMA overall, with great takedown defense, ability to get back to her feet, and striking that doesn't look amateurish. He notes Rosa has competed with top division fighters like Irene Aldana and Norma Dumont, and outlanded Aldana. He sees this as a step up for Pérez against a real MMA fighter.

"I'm going to side with Carol Rosa I just think it's the next step in aen Perez's career where she actually faces a female MMA fighter who is good at MMA"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Pannie Kianzad

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Karol Rosa	0	117 of 194	60%	140 of 223	1 of 2	50%	0	0	4:24
Pannie Kianzad	0	92 of 182	50%	138 of 229	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Karol Rosa	42 of 74	56%	42 of 74	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Pannie Kianzad	40 of 80	50%	40 of 80	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Karol Rosa	52 of 84	61%	56 of 88	0 of 0	---	0:24
2	Pannie Kianzad	43 of 78	55%	44 of 79	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Karol Rosa	23 of 36	63%	42 of 61	1 of 2	50%	4:00
3	Pannie Kianzad	9 of 24	37%	54 of 70	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Karol Rosa	117 of 194	60%	70 of 132	8 of 9	39 of 53	100 of 170	16 of 23	1 of 1
Pannie Kianzad	92 of 182	50%	56 of 138	20 of 27	16 of 17	82 of 163	10 of 19	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Karol Rosa	42 of 74	56%	21 of 42	2 of 2	19 of 30	42 of 74	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Pannie Kianzad	40 of 80	50%	18 of 52	13 of 18	9 of 10	39 of 79	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Karol Rosa	52 of 84	61%	33 of 62	1 of 2	18 of 20	49 of 80	3 of 4	0 of 0
2	Pannie Kianzad	43 of 78	55%	33 of 66	5 of 7	5 of 5	39 of 70	4 of 8	0 of 0
3	Karol Rosa	23 of 36	63%	16 of 28	5 of 5	2 of 3	9 of 16	13 of 19	1 of 1
3	Pannie Kianzad	9 of 24	37%	5 of 20	2 of 2	2 of 2	4 of 14	5 of 10	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Pannie Kianzad vs. Karol Rosa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosa (-205), Kianzad (+170)

Round 1
A women’s bantamweight tilt pitting Kianzad (16-8, 5-5 UFC) against Rosa (17-6, 6-3 UFC) closes out the preliminaries and should provide some clarity in terms of mid-card pecking order at 135 pounds. Kianzad enters the Octagon on the heels of back-to-back losses, having fallen back to the .500 mark within the promotion. Beltran administers the law and order. No glove touch. Kianzad jabs to the body. Rosa answers with a leg kick, then another. The impact spins around Kianzad. Another low kick from Rosa, whose game plan comes into view inside the first minute. One-two from Rosa. Inside leg kick from the Brazilian. Kianzad answers with an overhand left, but she eats yet another leg kick. Kianzad doubles up on the jab but misses the target. Rosa cuts loose with a two-punch volley and mixes in an inside leg kick. Jab from Rosa, then a low kick. Kianzad responds with a sharp right hand, followed by a left hook. The Swede now doing all she can to keep her leg out of harm’s way. No luck. Rosa finds the mark with another kick. They exchange in the center. Kianzad fires a three-punch volley, resets and lands a right hand. Leg kick from Rosa. Kianzad goes to throw a kick, loses her balance and hits the deck. Back on the feet, Rosa greets her with a flying knee.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa

Round 2
This could get ugly if Kianzad does not address the kicks. She doubles up on the left hook. Rosa answers with multiple low kicks, then steps into an elbow. They trade in the center. Rosa continues to damage the legs, then opens a cut on the forehead with another elbow. Blood streams down between Kianzad’s eyes. Rosa backs her up with punches, shields herself from the return fire and gets her hands in gear again. Kianzad welcomes her into the clinch with a knee to the ribs. Rosa responds with short-range elbow. Kianzad’s lead leg has swelled to twice its normal size. Rosa lands a short left hook. Jab from Rosa, then a leg kick. Kianzad hops in visible distress. Less than a minute to go. Nice one-two from Kianzad. Rosa answers with a jab and follows it with a leg kick. Kianzad is going to have a hard time going to sleep. Rosa jabs at the end of the middle stanza and closes with a kick.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa

Round 3
They clinch to start the third round. Rosa controls the position and mixes in a few elbows before they separate. Rosa with a one-two. A significant hematoma now developing outside of Kianzad’s right eye. Rosa executes a takedown, likely surprising the Swede. Kianzad scores with short punches and elbows from the bottom. Blood becoming more of an issue for the former Cage Warriors champion. Kianzad gets to a knee, builds a base and gets back to her feet. Halfway home in Round 3. Rosa presses her into the fence and creates enough space to rip some elbows upstairs. Punches follow. Somebody get Kianzad some ice. Rosa continues to crowd her along the cage, bleeding time off the clock. She alternates between clinching and punching. Stellar performance from the Brazilian. They trade knees as the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (30-27 Rosa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (30-27 Rosa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (30-27 Rosa)

The Official Result
Karol Rosa def. Pannie Kianzad—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Angelo picks Karol Rosa due to her insane volume (204 significant strikes in a three-round fight), pressure, and grit. He notes that Pannie is a more technical boxer but will struggle if she's on her back foot against Rosa's volume. He also mentions Rosa has solid takedown offense and defense.

Over 2.5 rounds should be safe but got burned on that last time with Pannie

"HOSA is the pick"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Pannie Kianzad

Cody also picks Kianzad, calling Rosa's style frustrating and noting she doesn't use her BJJ or adjust game plans. He believes Kianzad lands better shots and has a plus number, making her the play. He mentions both have been knocked down by Lena Lansburg, which is a useless but funny stat.

"total doger pass total CF dot model peny kad's got A plus number next to her name that's my pick this week"

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Rosa is the better overall fighter with a more well-rounded game, but her lack of urgency in past fights is a concern. She can win by mixing in grappling behind her striking, but the fight likely goes to a split decision. The line is a bit high; waiting for a better price around -130 to -140 is advised.

Rosa by split decision; maybe taking either woman to win by split decision

"I still am going to lean on the HOSA side here as I think she's the better overall fighter and I'm really hoping that she decides to go to a grappling here behind her striking so she can separate herself …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Pannie Kianzad

Paul picks Kianzad at plus 180, viewing the fight as a coin flip striking affair. He criticizes Rosa's lack of fight IQ, poor takedown defense, and inability to adjust. He notes Kianzad has better striking volume and can land the better shots.

"I took uh I found a plus 180 uh earlier this morning and uh took Penny keed that's uh that's where I'm at here"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Karol Rosa, stating she is more committed to the game and younger than Pannie Kianzad. He does not provide extensive technical analysis but expresses confidence in her dedication and age advantage.

"I'm going to go with Carol Rosa winning that one... I just think she's more committed to the game way more committed to the game"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Irene Aldana

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Irene Aldana	0	145 of 308	47%	145 of 308	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Karol Rosa	0	204 of 350	58%	204 of 350	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Irene Aldana	30 of 88	34%	30 of 88	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Karol Rosa	45 of 89	50%	45 of 89	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Irene Aldana	54 of 109	49%	54 of 109	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Karol Rosa	67 of 108	62%	67 of 108	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Irene Aldana	61 of 111	54%	61 of 111	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Karol Rosa	92 of 153	60%	92 of 153	0 of 1	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Irene Aldana	145 of 308	47%	122 of 276	20 of 28	3 of 4	145 of 308	0 of 0	0 of 0
Karol Rosa	204 of 350	58%	103 of 237	6 of 11	95 of 102	204 of 349	0 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Irene Aldana	30 of 88	34%	23 of 75	5 of 10	2 of 3	30 of 88	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Karol Rosa	45 of 89	50%	11 of 52	2 of 2	32 of 35	45 of 89	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Irene Aldana	54 of 109	49%	48 of 103	5 of 5	1 of 1	54 of 109	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Karol Rosa	67 of 108	62%	37 of 73	1 of 4	29 of 31	67 of 107	0 of 1	0 of 0
3	Irene Aldana	61 of 111	54%	51 of 98	10 of 13	0 of 0	61 of 111	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Karol Rosa	92 of 153	60%	55 of 112	3 of 5	34 of 36	92 of 153	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aldana (-205), Rosa (+170)

Round 1
The winner of this next preliminary affair could posture themselves in line for the next title shot, given the dearth of contenders at 135 pounds. Aldana (14-7, 7-5 UFC) is coming off a deflating defeat to the great Amanda Nunes, while Rosa (17-5, 6-2 UFC) has shifted around from bantamweight to featherweight until the latter disintegrated. Whether this lasts three minutes or three full rounds, referee Jason Herzog has clocked in and is ready for what comes next. There is a sporting glove touch between the women, and Aldana strikes first with a quick jab. Rosa strings two punches and a leg kick together to give something back, and Aldana is right there to pop her with a one-two when that completes. Rosa meanders forward as chants for “Mexico” rain down, and Aldana meets her with a few peppering jabs. Rosa lunges with two more punches and a low kick, and she skirts away from a right hand that zips towards her. Aldana absorbs a few more lead leg kicks, and she gets driven back by the Brazilian with a straight right hand. Aldana sticks out a sharp jab and reddens the nose of her foe with a couple subsequent punches, and Rosa retaliates with a fierce leg kick that spins Aldana around and sits her on her seat momentarily. Aldana gathers her thoughts and tanks two more kicks, and she marches forward putting hands on Rosa. Aldana connects with a solid one-two, but Rosa continues to chop her down like a tree. Less than three minutes in, and Aldana’s left leg is welted on both sides and showing some damage. Rosa does not take her foot off the gas as she continues to work on the boxer’s leg, and Aldana forces responses with long, leaning punches. Rosa’s defense stays effective enough to show little harm from the punches, and she slams her shin on the inside of Aldana’s thigh. Aldana is wearing it, but she bites down on her mouthpiece and connects with numerous punches up top. Rosa chambers and fires more legs kicks, never allowing Aldana to feel comfortable, and Aldana is not bothering to check or do anything about them. Instead, Aldana plods forward, jabbing and dinging Rosa with punches. Rosa, the bridge of her nose cut, pounds on Aldana’s lead leg with kicks on the inside and out. Aldana toughs it out, but every time one lands, her knee nearly buckles. Aldana maintains a stiff upper lip, backing Rosa off with her long, accurate punches. Aldana gets off a right hand, and Rosa rocks her with a head kick shortly thereafter. The horn sounds, with both ladies licking their wounds after five harsh minutes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Rosa

Round 2
The two practically sprint off of their stools to get ready for the second round, and they quickly touch gloves first. Rosa gets right back to bombarding Aldana with ferocious kicks, and Aldana is in her face piecing her up with punches. Rosa gives back punches, in lesser volume, but her kicks make more than up for it. Aldana hops around back and forth to try to get some feeling back in her lead wheel, as Rosa is chopping hard at the inner thigh that is welted and swollen. Rosa uses her leg kicks to open up punches up top, and Aldana continues to fight through the pain and blasts Rosa in the face with a one-two. Aldana punches her way into a long combination, and she tags Rosa with a straight right hand. Rosa chomps down on her gumshield and slings leather right back, but Aldana continues to peck and poke away at her with effective punches. With Rosa’s back against the wall, she has nowhere to go, and Aldana lays into her with long series of punches. Rosa cannot get off kicks when in close range, until Aldana backs off. Rosa falls over when throwing a kick, and Aldana lets her back up so that she can chain punches en masse. Aldana pours it on as Rosa begins to slow, and the right hands from the Mexican draw serious swelling on Rosa’s left eye. Rosa fearlessly trades leather, but Aldana is the far superior pure boxer and does some damage. The Brazilian gets enough space to lob out low kicks, until Aldana crowds her with her fists. Rosa tries to back her off courtesy of a jump knee, and Aldana parries it and comes out firing. Aldana starts kiaiing when landing punches, and Rosa’s face is busted up from taking punishment. Aldana ignores the leg kicks, even when aimed at her calf, and she stings Rosa with a vicious uppercut. Rosa throws caution to the wind and starts brawling, and Aldana takes it to her with several more crisp punches until the horn ends the wild round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldana
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Aldana
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldana

Round 3
The ladies are glad to touch ’em up to begin the last round, and Aldana is fired up. The first punch Aldana throws rocks Rosa, and Rosa takes a quick count of her teeth and absorbs a few more fiery punches. Rosa connects with a few low kicks on the inside and out, and Aldana jabs her way into a blistering exchange. Rosa gets her swollen eye smashed as she kicks Aldana’s leg out, and Aldana’s one-two continues to find its home. Rosa picks up the number of low kicks again, intercepting an advancing Aldana. Aldana rips an uppercut in the midst of a salvo, and Rosa chops her lead leg down like Van Damme kicking the banana tree in “Kickboxer.” Rosa continues her assault of leg kicks, and Aldana finds her mark with head shots and one big one to the body. Aldana busts open the mouse under Rosa’s eye and spams uppercuts, and Rosa is backing off but still trading. This is insane. Aldana may not realize how hurt Rosa is, and she does not target the body as much and continues teeing off up top. Rosa throws back with everything she has, and Aldana drills the liver with a left hand. Aldana starts aiming punches to the body, and she mixes shots up top and down to the midsection. Rosa is tough as a two-dollar steak, bleeding from both eyes and compromised by body shots, but she is still in the fight. Aldana connects again and again with long chains of punches, transforming Rosa’s face into an unrecognizable visage, and Rosa counters with bombs. With 30 seconds left, Rosa decides it is time to start brawling, chin be darned. Aldana walks through leg kicks and busts Rosa in the chops with everything she has. Aldana smashes Rosa’s nose, and blood is leaking out of Rosa’s face from basically everywhere. Rosa may take some steps back, but she does not stop trading furious leather until the bitter end. The final bell sounds, putting an end to a sure-fire “Fight of the Night” winner immediately worthy of “Fight of the Year” consideration. What an absolutely sensational firefight!

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldana (29-28 Aldana)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Aldana (29-28 Aldana)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldana (29-28 Aldana)

The Official Result
Irene Aldana def. Karol Rosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Irene Aldana

Angelo picks Irene Aldana but is hesitant, citing concerns about fighters coming off title losses. He acknowledges Rosa's busy striking and takedown ability, but believes Aldana's size and power should prevail. He does not trust her with his money.

No bet; concerned about post-title loss spiral

"Irene aldana is the pick probably medium level confidence... I don't trust her with my money"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Big Brady picks Karol Rosa as a slight underdog, calling it a close fight. He likes Aldana's striking and power but notes Rosa's youth (7 years younger), high volume (over 5 significant strikes per minute), and improving grappling (brown/black belt in BJJ). Brady believes Rosa can get takedowns, as she has in 5 UFC fights, and potentially win minutes on the mat. He predicts a very close split decision for Rosa.

"I am going to pick the dog here and Carol HOSA to win a very very close split competitive decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Cody picks Rosa, arguing that Aldana's takedown defense is a major liability and that Rosa has the volume and wrestling to win. He notes that Aldana was nearly beaten by Macy Chiasson before landing a lucky upkick, and that Rosa is younger and has shown improvement. Cody believes Rosa can swarm Aldana with volume and mix in takedowns to secure a decision. He is not fully confident but sees Rosa as the dog pick.

"dog number three for me... car Rosa"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Irene Aldana

Daniel Vreeland picks Irene Aldana as his lock, stating that Karol Rosa is in over her head in the striking department and won't get enough grappling going. He thinks the line on Aldana is nice at around -200.

"I'm gonna take uh aren Alana I think Carol Jose is in over her head here"

MMA Gambling Podcast

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Lucrative James is confident Karol Rosa is the side at plus money. He believes Irene Aldana's win over Macy Chiasson was a fluke (upkick from bottom) and that she was losing that fight. He thinks Rosa can get takedowns and control from top, and that the fight is close on the feet. He calls betting on Aldana at minus 230 'mental' and says Rosa should not be plus 180.

"Karol Rosa should not be plus 180... this is ridiculous."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

The host picks Rosa as an underdog, citing her youth, potential, and well-rounded game. He believes Rosa can out-grapple Aldana, who has shown vulnerabilities in the clinch and on the ground. He notes that Rosa can be competitive on the feet but should look to close the distance and implement her grappling. He expects Rosa to win a decision by putting together a better MMA package.

Rosa by decision

"give me the youngster here the 28-year-old at least relative to the 35-year-old AR adala uh as I think HOSA can go out there and put together a better MMA package here and win this fight on the scorecards so …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Paul picks Rosa as an underdog, citing Aldana's poor takedown defense and Rosa's volume and wrestling. He notes that Aldana has been taken down easily in past fights and that Rosa can win on the feet or by mixing in takedowns. Paul acknowledges both fighters are untrustworthy but sees value in Rosa at +160. He believes Rosa's cardio and volume will be key.

"I'll go with the CF dot model here and uh and side with Carol Rosa"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Irene Aldana

The Guru picks Irene Aldana over Karol Rosa, despite Aldana's poor performance against Amanda Nunes. He notes Aldana's wins over Macy Chiasson and Yana Santos, and believes she has a finishing advantage and is physically bigger. He expects Aldana to win easily.

"I'm going with Irene aldana... Irene aldana beats her really easily even though she was absolutely [ __ ] scared of Amanda Nunes"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Yana Santos

Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Karol Rosa	0	95 of 156	60%	151 of 213	0 of 0	---	0	0	3:53
Yana Santos	0	66 of 130	50%	117 of 181	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:41

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Karol Rosa	33 of 54	61%	68 of 89	0 of 0	---	2:19
1	Yana Santos	12 of 26	46%	35 of 49	0 of 0	---	0:08
2	Karol Rosa	29 of 44	65%	48 of 64	0 of 0	---	1:34
2	Yana Santos	20 of 44	45%	42 of 66	0 of 0	---	0:08
3	Karol Rosa	33 of 58	56%	35 of 60	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Yana Santos	34 of 60	56%	40 of 66	1 of 1	100%	0:25

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Karol Rosa	95 of 156	60%	20 of 69	42 of 47	33 of 40	63 of 113	32 of 43	0 of 0
Yana Santos	66 of 130	50%	38 of 95	18 of 21	10 of 14	48 of 106	12 of 14	6 of 10

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Karol Rosa	33 of 54	61%	11 of 31	17 of 18	5 of 5	14 of 27	19 of 27	0 of 0
1	Yana Santos	12 of 26	46%	7 of 20	4 of 4	1 of 2	8 of 22	4 of 4	0 of 0
2	Karol Rosa	29 of 44	65%	5 of 19	13 of 13	11 of 12	18 of 32	11 of 12	0 of 0
2	Yana Santos	20 of 44	45%	14 of 36	5 of 6	1 of 2	16 of 38	4 of 6	0 of 0
3	Karol Rosa	33 of 58	56%	4 of 19	12 of 16	17 of 23	31 of 54	2 of 4	0 of 0
3	Yana Santos	34 of 60	56%	17 of 39	9 of 11	8 of 10	24 of 46	4 of 4	6 of 10

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Karol Rosa vs. Yana Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosa (-175), Santos (+150)

Round 1
A few weeks ago, Santos (14-7, 1 NC; 4-4 UFC) was expecting to encounter Macy Chiasson at bantamweight in what would have been an important fight given the post-Amanda Nunes landscape. Instead, she moves up in weight to the practically empty featherweight category to throw down with Rosa (16-5, 5-2 UFC). In theory, this could be a no. 1 contender fight if the promotion keeps the women’s 145-pound category together, but that remains to be seen. It will go down under the watchful eye of referee Kerry Hatley, and it kicks off with a cordial fist bump. Rosa engages first and throws hands, and Santos meets her with a few powerful punches right back. Santos strides forward to get a few knees up the middle, and Rosa replies with a sharp elbow when they are clinched. The two frantically race at one another, and Rosa grips the clinch and gets elbows on the break. Santos punches her way in, and she shells up when Rosa counters with a left and a right. The two both swing hard, and this results in a tie-up that Santos uses to push the Brazilian to the wall. Santos clings to her foe, kneeing her a few times from either side. Santos grinds, and Rosa palms her on the ear a few times. Santos chips away with short knees to the midsection, staying busy in the position while keeping Rosa stuck with her back at the wall. Santos sneaks an elbow over the top and stays closely pressed to her adversary, as her strike totals add up in this clinch position. Santos peppers Rosa with short left hands as she hangs on, and another elbow gets over the top before Rosa explodes to turn her around. Rosa gives her one single knee back before Santos tries to turn her about, and they split up. Rosa walks Santos down, and she blocks a body kick and bounces back. Santos throws punches and a body kick, and Rosa takes a subsequent front kick to the body. Rosa counters a leg kick with an overhand right, and she chases Santos around until they bump heads together. They end up clinching in the middle of the cage, and Santos shoves her to the fencing and starts up her knee attack again. Santos elects to separate, and Rosa connects with an overhand right that makes Santos think twice about closing in. Santos tosses out a low kick, and she spins with a back kick to the body. They both try to elbow each other from up close, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 2
The second round begins as Rosa moves to the center of the cage and starts chasing Santos around again. Santos ducks back from a big one-two, and Rosa lands a solid body shot before Santos can grab hold of her and initiate the clinch. Rosa backs off to find a better angle of approach, and she goes back in and is quickly turned around by the Russian. Santos throws knees to any target, squeezing Rosa tight against the fence before popping her with an elbow. Santos backs away, and crashes forward to clinch back up. Santos sneaks over another elbow and decides to break, and Rosa starts walking her down throwing punches. They trade blows, and Rosa ends with a good right hand. They tie up and trade knees in the Thai clinch, and Santos circles away to keep moving. Santos whiffs on an axe kick, and they crash together for a brief clinch until they push off. Rosa stalks down her opponent, and she lands a leg kick only to get countered with an overhand right. Rosa marches forward with impunity, and she knees Santos on the way in. The two ladies engage in single strike excursions, where they dart in, land something, and get out. They take turns in these kinds of engagements, and Rosa fires off a head kick and lets Santos brush past her. Santos kicks the body with a side kick, and she keeps strafing laterally. Rosa lands a right hand and has her head kick blocked, and she swats away a step-in elbow so she can close the distance. Santos welcomes this and turns her around without batting an eye, and the close round wraps with the two stuck together.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa

Round 3
The last round has been reached, and Rosa is the immediate aggressor as she throws big punches. Santos snatches her up and pulls her into the clinch game, but Rosa pushes her away to return to kickboxing range. Santos keeps moving, and she kicks the body a few times as Rosa walks towards her. Santos comes in to clinch, and she backs out with an elbow that grazes off the cheek. Rosa plants the ball of her foot on Santos’ midsection, and she fires off a one-two that gets Santos’ attention. They trade heavy leg kicks, and the pocket collapses as they both rush at the other to launch knees. Rosa pushes off, and she counters a body kick with a thudding right hand. Santos hops back and gathers her thoughts, and she kicks low again. They swipe at one another with big kicks, and Rosa lumps her foe up with a right hand and a low kick that does not give off a slapping sound. Rosa plods onward, beating Santos to the punch a few times in brief skirmishes, and she lands a right hand on the nose to make Santos blink it out. Rose aims a right to the body, and she checks a leg kick in response. Santos tries to keep Rosa away with a front kick, and Rosa walks through it and parries a body kick that follows. Rosa splits the guard with a one-two, and the Brazilian is the aggressor and swinging with heavier blows. Santos peppers the lead leg with a kick, and Rosa delivers one much heavier. Rosa ties her up to land one single elbow, and she pushes off to gain space and not get trapped. Rosa lumbers towards her opponent constantly, throwing punches and the occasional kick, and Santos is stuck looking for counters. A high kick from Rosa grazes off the top of the head, and she plants a one-two on the chin. Rosa trips Santos out with 15 seconds left in the fight, and she jams down elbows to the face and punches to the side to conclude the fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Rosa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Rosa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Rosa)

The Official Result
Karol Rosa def. Yana Santos via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Angelo picks Karol Rosa, expecting her volume and takedown threats to disrupt Yana Santos's rhythm. He notes Yana is the better technical striker but Rosa's busy output and wrestling will be key. He predicts a decision win for Rosa, similar to her win over Lina Lansberg but without a knockdown. He likes the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds (potential bet)

"I think it's a pretty straightforward spot for Carol right I think Jana's gonna be the better striker in technique but Carol's gonna be too busy"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Big Brady picks Karol Rosa to win by decision. He notes Yana Santos has looked atrocious lately, with poor takedown defense (45%) and losses to Holly Holm and Irene Aldana. He believes Rosa's black belt in BJJ and superior striking volume will allow her to control the fight on the mat and on the feet. He acknowledges the fight could get greasy but is confident Rosa has her covered everywhere.

"I'm gonna pick Carol HOSA to win this fight I'll say she wins this fight by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Cody likes Rosa's volume and wrestling advantage. He notes Santos has poor takedown defense and get-up game, as seen in fights against Vieira and Holm. Rosa can wrestle and has good durability. Cody thinks Rosa will press Santos against the cage, take her down, and grind out a decision. He also notes Rosa's ability to put up high strike numbers.

"calrose has the favorite yeah I'm gonna have to back that"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Daniel leans Rosa but is concerned about her recent drop in volume and defensive grappling holes. He notes Rosa's past high-volume performances and toughness, but worries that Yana could control her against the fence and win close rounds. He expects Rosa to win but sees a path for Yana via grinding decisions, making the -150 price unappealing. He calls it a pass at these odds.

"I like hosted a win but I don't like it enough at these odds"

Half the Battle

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Paul picks Rosa, citing her significant strike volume (125 vs Kohaya, 171 vs Procopio) compared to Santos' low volume. He notes Rosa's wrestling advantage and Santos' recent losses. Paul thinks Rosa by decision is likely, but he may not bet it due to the price.

Rosa by decision at -115

"I can understand why she's a minus 170 favorite am I going to get to that from a betting perspective you know me probably not"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

The Guru picks Karol Rosa, calling her technically sound and noting her win over Joseline Edwards. He doesn't see her being out-grappled by Yana Santos. However, he expresses frustration with women's MMA, calling it a coin flip and saying 'whatever happens happens,' indicating low confidence.

"I'm gonna go with Carol Rosa here I actually think she's quite technically sound as a fighter"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Norma Dumont

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Apr 22, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Norma Dumont	1	33 of 68	48%	144 of 194	0 of 2	0%	0	0	3:13
Karol Rosa	0	35 of 87	40%	63 of 129	1 of 1	100%	0	0	4:54

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Norma Dumont	0	8 of 19	42%	25 of 39	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Karol Rosa	0	11 of 26	42%	15 of 31	0 of 0	---	1:30
2	Norma Dumont	0	7 of 18	38%	47 of 67	0 of 1	0%	1:57
2	Karol Rosa	0	11 of 28	39%	27 of 51	0 of 0	---	2:05
3	Norma Dumont	1	18 of 31	58%	72 of 88	0 of 1	0%	1:16
3	Karol Rosa	0	13 of 33	39%	21 of 47	1 of 1	100%	1:19

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Norma Dumont	33 of 68	48%	19 of 43	8 of 11	6 of 14	20 of 53	13 of 15	0 of 0
Karol Rosa	35 of 87	40%	18 of 64	9 of 13	8 of 10	27 of 76	8 of 11	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Norma Dumont	8 of 19	42%	3 of 7	3 of 5	2 of 7	6 of 17	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Karol Rosa	11 of 26	42%	5 of 17	2 of 4	4 of 5	9 of 24	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Norma Dumont	7 of 18	38%	4 of 13	3 of 4	0 of 1	4 of 13	3 of 5	0 of 0
2	Karol Rosa	11 of 28	39%	7 of 22	4 of 6	0 of 0	7 of 21	4 of 7	0 of 0
3	Norma Dumont	18 of 31	58%	12 of 23	2 of 2	4 of 6	10 of 23	8 of 8	0 of 0
3	Karol Rosa	13 of 33	39%	6 of 25	3 of 3	4 of 5	11 of 31	2 of 2	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Norma Dumont vs. Karol Rosa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dumont (-115), Rosa (-105)

Round 1
An all-Brazil battle at the rare women’s featherweight category is about to play out, with the victor here between Rosa (16-4, 5-1 UFC) and Dumont (8-2, 4-2 UFC) very possibly a win away from a crack at the belt in that division – should the champ wish to defend. Unlike the previous matchup that expected a knockout that did not get delivered, these ladies have gone the distance a combined 19 times in their 30 pro outings, while accounting for all nine of their UFC wins. Referee Chris Tognoni might be in this one for the long haul, and it opens up with a touch of gloves. The featherweights are tentative to engage, with Rosa reaching out with a low kick and a front kick from out of range to account for the first minute. They spring into action, throwing alternating hooks, and they catch one another as Rosa gets the worst of it and blinks it out. Dumont moves to the center of the Octagon and throws the low kick, and she swats out with a left to follow. A person from the crowd shows “let’s go” to spur the ladies into action, as they stand in front of one another doing nothing. Tognoni asks them to fight, and they do, briefly, with looping hooks aimed at one another. After the exchange, they get back to a lull of inactivity, with Rosa landing a single leg kick. Dumont answers with one, and Tognoni implores them to do something. Dumont crashes the pocket and ties Rosa up, and she is warned for hooking her fingers in the fence to keep Rosa stuck against it. Rosa punches her opponent on the posterior as Dumont gloms onto her, and Dumont pays it no mind as she presses on the Parana Vale Tudo fighter. Tognoni tells Dumont to stay busy, and Rosa punches her in the backside a few more times before Dumont knees her in the belly. Tognoni breaks the two up after nothing happens in the clinch, and they start slinging leather in short bursts. Dumont calms down and lands a leg kick, one that Rosa meets immediately after. Dumont springs forward with two punches that split the guard, and she takes punches and a pair of knees in response before the slow round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dumont

Round 2
The second round kicks off as the two ladies high-five, and Dumont gets her engine roaring as she throws down. Fists fly, and Rosa takes a few on the chin that knock her back to the wall. Dumont tags her a few more times, until the featherweights clinch up, and Dumont immediately grabs it and is warned. The punches from “The Immortal” cause some serious damage on Rosa’s eye, as a cut appears to have formed on or around the eyelid to make Rosa look as if she were weeping blood a la Le Chiffre. It is not a derangement of the tear duct, and instead a result of Dumont’s effective left hand, but they slow down in the clinch. Tognoni considers breaking them, until Rosa sets up a Thai clinch and knees the body a few times. Dumont squeezes her against the wall even tighter, and is once more warned for hooking her fingers in the chain links. Rosa is able to escape the clinch and still seems to be able to see, as she swings her way into a combination that ends up with another tie-up. Rosa pursues a body lock takedown, and Dumont stays upright as Tognoni watches on to make sure no funny business happens. Dumont tries to counter throw her opponent, and Rosa stops it from succeeding and knees her on the chin. Dumont gives her a knee back to the body, and Rosa is content to jam Dumont up in this position. Try as she might, Dumont cannot escape, and Rosa belts her in the face with a cheeky elbow. The round concludes as Rosa breaks off to throw hands, with Dumont replying with a knee to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dumont

Round 3
A glove touch starts off the last round at range, and Dumont opens up with two leg kicks and one to the midsection. Rosa throws one back, prompting Dumont to retaliate with a one-two down the middle. Rosa is caught when throwing by Dumont’s oncoming clinch attempt, but they do not tie one another up and instead return to kickboxing range. Dumont sticks out a jab on that damaged eye and scores a low kick, and it is partially checked as she hops on it when recoiling. Dumont jabs the body as Rosa kicks her in the body, and Rosa gets off a quick right hand over the top. Rosa charges her way into a clinch, landing a few shots before closing the distance, and Dumont turns her around with ease. Dumont hangs on with this position, slowing down any offense from either fighter to practically nothing, as Rosa wriggles her arms while Dumont holds both underhooks. Rosa gains space by a matter of inches to use her elbow to frame off and push away, and Dumont counters with a throw that dumps the PRVT fighter to her back. Rosa jumps right back up instead of settling on her back, and she whips a one-two at her opponent. Rosa loads up on a right hand, and Dumont drops to a knee and shakes her head out. Rosa crashes towards her, and she ends up clinching instead of throwing more strikes. Rosa gets off a couple short elbows and a right hand from up close, and Dumont recovers by holding on and turning her about in the tie-up. Rosa gets some space with 30 seconds to spare, and Rosa walks her down and slugs her in the face with her right hand. Dumont backs off, and she seeks a clinch to slow things down. Rosa throws her foe down on her face, and when they stand up, Rosa spins with a back elbow that drills into the face of “The Immortal.” Dumont is stunned but still with it, and the horn blows to end this drudge of a potential eliminator.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Dumont)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Dumont)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Dumont)

The Official Result
Norma Dumont def. Karol Rosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Norma Dumont

Angelo picks Norma Dumont as an underdog, surprised she is +125. He trusts her size, takedown defense, and striking acumen. He notes that while Rosa has high volume, she gets hit twice as often. He thinks Dumont's technical striking will be the difference and that she can pull off the upset.

"I like Norma Dumont here she's sitting at plus 125 right now and I'm surprised... Norma Dumont Underdog pick on this card I think she's gonna pull off the upset."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Norma Dumont

Big Brady leans with Norma Dumont to win by split decision, but has no confidence in the pick. He notes that the fight is at featherweight, which favors Dumont's size, and that the grappling exchanges will decide the winner. He sees both fighters having been taken down in the past, but gives a slight edge to Dumont's size to get on top and win minutes on the ground. He is passing on betting this fight entirely.

passing on betting

"I'm going to take her I'm going to say she does get take down Sierra she does get on top she uses that size to kind of win minutes on the ground but just no no confidence in this fight …"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Cody picks Rosa, hoping she can use her volume and speed to outwork Dumont. He notes Dumont doesn't wrestle enough and Rosa has good takedown defense. However, he admits it's a close fight and he is relying on Dumont fighting a bad game plan. He acknowledges Dumont's wrestling could be a problem if she uses it.

"I'm gonna go roast to the other side but uh I hear you I think it's gonna come down to the takedown with Carol Rosa"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Connor picks Karol Rosa, arguing that Dumont is too patient and doesn't know how to grapple, which will be a problem against Rosa's willingness to wrestle. He notes that Rosa flourishes when she can dictate the nature of the fight, and Dumont's lack of pressure will allow Rosa to work. Connor also criticizes Dumont's resume, saying she has mostly beaten non-threatening opponents.

Odds comment: Rosa opened at -142, currently -103; Dumont opened at +128, now -114. Connor says that line movement doesn't make sense.

"I think that this probably makes this Dumont fight a pretty good one for Hosa, frankly."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Karol Rosa is the more well-rounded fighter with better output, technical striking, and ground game. However, she is moving up to featherweight, where Norma Dumont has a size and strength advantage. Rosa struggled against the physicality of Sarah McMahon in the past. Dumont is a wild card with inconsistent performances and weight issues. Rosa should use her footwork and volume to outpoint Dumont, but it's a close fight. Prediction: Rosa by decision, with low confidence.

Over 2.5 rounds might be a good play

"I'm still going to lean with the hostess side thinking that she has more paths to Victory here... I'm thinking that we're going to see a horse out Striker here win this five-year decision"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Norma Dumont

Paul picks Dumont, noting he got her at plus 125 earlier. He believes Dumont has the power and wrestling advantage, and can take Rosa down and control her. He acknowledges Rosa's volume and speed but thinks Dumont's size and strength will be decisive. He mentions the line has moved to minus 120 and there may not be much value left.

"big Norm will be my pick I'm already on her um but at a significantly better price as this becomes more like minus 120 minus 130 I mean I don't know if there's too much meat on the bone"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Norma Dumont

The MMA Guru picks Norma Dumont, agreeing with a coin flip. He thinks Dumont is a much better fighter than Karol Rosa, noting Rosa's lack of takedown ability and Dumont's decent takedown defense. He cites Dumont's clean win over Danielle Wolfe and believes she will outclass Rosa on the feet. He predicts a decision win, 29-28 or 30-27.

decision

"I am going to go with Norma Jamon here I just think she's like such a better fighter than Carol Rosa is"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Karol Rosa. He notes that Dumont is a solid counter puncher but too patient and doesn't seize initiative. Zane believes Rosa will get a ton of time to work and that Dumont struggles when put on her back. He also points out that Rosa is a willing wrestler and that Dumont's wins are over weak competition.

"I think so too. I mean, I do think it has the potential to... we might see some interesting clashes here because Dumont for all of her overpatience, it is because she is a pretty solid counter puncher."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Lina Länsberg

Decision (majority) (29–27, 29–27, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Karol Rosa	0	54 of 74	72%	160 of 190	3 of 6	50%	0	0	9:44
Lina Länsberg	1	36 of 60	60%	100 of 132	0 of 0	---	0	0	2:48

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Karol Rosa	0	6 of 10	60%	42 of 49	1 of 1	100%	2:59
1	Lina Länsberg	1	7 of 10	70%	22 of 27	0 of 0	---	0:56
2	Karol Rosa	0	15 of 16	93%	58 of 64	2 of 2	100%	4:29
2	Lina Länsberg	0	4 of 12	33%	28 of 39	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Karol Rosa	0	33 of 48	68%	60 of 77	0 of 3	0%	2:16
3	Lina Länsberg	0	25 of 38	65%	50 of 66	0 of 0	---	1:52

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Karol Rosa	54 of 74	72%	31 of 46	13 of 16	10 of 12	24 of 38	15 of 20	15 of 16
Lina Länsberg	36 of 60	60%	15 of 39	20 of 20	1 of 1	18 of 42	16 of 16	2 of 2

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Karol Rosa	6 of 10	60%	2 of 5	1 of 1	3 of 4	4 of 8	1 of 1	1 of 1
1	Lina Länsberg	7 of 10	70%	3 of 6	4 of 4	0 of 0	4 of 7	3 of 3	0 of 0
2	Karol Rosa	15 of 16	93%	7 of 7	1 of 1	7 of 8	1 of 1	0 of 0	14 of 15
2	Lina Länsberg	4 of 12	33%	3 of 11	0 of 0	1 of 1	2 of 10	0 of 0	2 of 2
3	Karol Rosa	33 of 48	68%	22 of 34	11 of 14	0 of 0	19 of 29	14 of 19	0 of 0
3	Lina Länsberg	25 of 38	65%	9 of 22	16 of 16	0 of 0	12 of 25	13 of 13	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Lina Lansberg vs. Karol Rosa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosa (-295), Lansberg (+245)

Round 1
The big show is upon us, and if you live in North America, you’re getting up early for this one and for good reason. A cool dozen fights – with most matches featuring ranked competitors – will grace this blockbuster event, one that begins in the women’s 135-pound weight class. Rising contender and Jessica Andrade training partner Rosa (15-4, 4-1 UFC) will look to get back on track after a humbling defeat to Sara McMann in March, while 40-year-old Swede Lansberg (10-6, 4-5 UFC) intends on demonstrating she is not done yet as she hunts for her first win since 2019. The first match of the day draws officiating from referee Lukasz Bosacki, and it begins without a glove touch. As a note, the UFC commentary team of Jon Anik, Daniel Cormier and Paul Felder is completely silent, possibly from technical difficulties. The two ladies jab at one another, and Rosa tosses out a body kick. Rosa fires off another kick, and Lansberg counters her with a right hand over the top that drops Rosa to her seat. The crowd erupts, and Lansberg sprints forwards but cannot reach her opponent before Rosa springs to her feet. Still a little tingly, Rosa runs straight into Lansberg, where she pushes her straight into the fence and clings on tight. Lansberg gladly accepts this position, turns her foe around and knees her in the belly a few times. Lansberg stays busy in the clinch, working the thighs and midsection with knees, and Bosacki calls for action. The two ladies both consider takedowns at the same time, and Rosa is the stronger woman and shoves Lansberg down to the mat. The Brazilian lands in half guard, and she postures up but Lansberg is clinging to her wrists to prevent any offense. Meanwhile, Lansberg is attempting to slash with elbows off her back, and this allows Rosa to get her own strikes going from above. Rosa settles for control time as she rides and drops down a few punches, but the strikes are sporadic at best. Rosa shifts momentarily to three-quarter mount, but opts to stand up right before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lansberg
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Rosa

Round 2
The commentary resumes at the beginning of the second round, but fight fans might pine for an option for no commentary for broadcasts going forward – not because Jon Anik is not an exceptional fight caller, but because it provides a different and interesting option to watch fights. At the start of Round 2, Rosa blitzes forward and hits a takedown within seconds. Rosa comfortably sits on top, with Lansberg unable to reverse, sweep or find a better angle. Rosa places her foe flat on her back, and she grinds her elbow on the face of “Elbow Queen” as if to attempt a very low level of regicide. Rosa then elbows the side as the time ticks off the clock, and Lansberg suddenly explodes to kick Rosa off of her. Rosa lords over her with slapping kicks to the leg, and Lansberg remains on her back instead of climbing back up. The crowd is not thrilled with this exchange. Rosa allows Lansberg to sit up, and as the Swede is leaning against the cage with her left knee down, Rosa blasts her in the face with an illegal knee. Bosacki recognizes this immediately, and he allows Lansberg to recover from the foul and calls in the doctor. Lansberg is all smiles and asks for Bosacki to take a point, and he agrees and deducts one point from Rosa. The fighters get back to it after about two minutes of recovery time, and Lansberg comes out swinging. Rosa capitalizes on this aggression by bowling her over with a takedown. The Brazilian smothers from on top in half guard again, with few strikes of merit and plenty of time hanging on in this position. Lansberg considers snatching up a heel from her back, and this forces Rosa to stand back up. Rosa leaps down in a diving leg lock attempt, and the round ends before anything can come from it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 9-9
Ben Duffy scores the round: 9-9
John Brannigan scores the round: 9-9

Round 3
The bantamweights meet in the middle, and both want to throw hands. Rosa clips her opponent with a right hand, and as Lansberg throws a body kick, the Swede gets tagged with a left hook. Lansberg strides forward and delivers a knee to the chest, and Rosa is feeling it as Lansberg pushes her to the wall. Rosa attempts to respond with knees while stuck on the fence, and she spins her opponent around and elbows her on the chin. The two jockey for position in this tight posture, and they get off knees at the same moment. This stalemate continues as Rosa gets the upper hand with short but effective strikes, and she gets shoved back. The Brazilian leaps in the air with a knee, and she bullies Lansberg back to the wire again. Lansberg deftly turns her around and gets off an elbow, forcing Rosa to change levels and go for a failed takedown. As she senses Lansberg slowing, Rosa swarms with a barrage of elbows and punches, as if to send a message to “Elbow Queen.” Rosa swings so hard she nearly topples over, as Lansberg has some swelling growing fast under her left eye. Lansberg catches her and ties her up to slow down the onslaught, but this allows Rosa to hit a throw and drop her to her knees. Lansberg climbs back up, and Rosa spins with an elbow that collides with the temple. Rosa rips one more knee to the body before the horn blares, and this could a close one depending on how judges score the first round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (28-28 Rosa)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-27 Rosa)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-27 Rosa)

The Official Result
Karol Rosa def. Lina Lansberg via Majority Decision (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Angelo picks Karol Rosa because she is the more well-rounded fighter with solid takedown offense and defense. He notes that Lina Länsberg is a better striker but was recently out-struck by Pannie Kianzad, and Rosa can avoid the clinch and use her own takedowns. He emphasizes that Rosa needs to avoid getting into a Muay Thai clinch.

"Karol is the more well-rounded fighter she should absolutely win this fight but she definitely needs to avoid getting into a Muay Thai clinch and fighting that dirty Lena lansberg fight"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Big Brady picks Karol Rosa to win by decision. He notes Rosa is 13 years younger, has higher volume (6.65 significant strikes per minute vs 2.74), and believes Länsberg would need to clinch or take the fight down to win, which he doesn't see happening. He expects Rosa to keep it upright and outpoint Länsberg over 15 minutes.

"I like Carol Jose to win this fight you know keep it upright keep it at range and just out Point Lena Landsberg across 15 minutes and win probably 30-27"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Cody is confident in Rosa, noting her superior volume and striking. He thinks Länsberg is low volume and lacks power. Cody expects Rosa to win by decision, and likes the decision prop at -110.

Rosa by decision (-110)

"I gotta think uh fade the underdog go with Carol Rosa big favorite yes but as you mentioned Rose said not really known for her finishing abilities"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Daniel Levi picks Karol Rosa to win, citing her huge output advantage (nearly 7 strikes per minute vs Lina Länsberg's under 3). He notes Rosa's well-rounded game including takedowns, and that she is 27 while Länsberg is 40. Levi is only wary of Länsberg's elbows but thinks Rosa's knees in the clinch and overall volume will prevail. He bet 1 unit at -225.

Bet 1 unit at -225.

"I bet uh Carlos at minus 225 to win one unit"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Karol Rosa is a solid prospect with great output, often landing over 100 significant strikes. She has good body work in the clinch and can also take a grapple-heavy approach to nullify Länsberg's elbows. Länsberg is 40 years old and coming off a loss to Pannie Kianzad, who is not as good as Rosa. Rosa should win via decision, and the chalk is worthy even at -295.

Rosa by decision at -115

"I think HOSA is a very solid Prospect... I think that this is a great matchup for a hostel to go out there I think the chalk is more than worthy of it as well"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Paul is confident in Rosa, noting Länsberg's age and lack of finishing ability. He thinks Rosa's volume and grappling will be too much. Paul has already bet Rosa by decision at -110.

Rosa by decision (-110)

"I actually just added Carol Rosa by decision to my card at -110"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Karol Rosa over Lina Länsberg, citing Rosa's superior technique, youth (27 vs 40), and recent grappling improvements after a loss to Sarah McMahon. He notes Länsberg's decline and believes Rosa will win by unanimous decision, leveraging a two-inch reach advantage.

"Carol Rosa is going to win because she is Carol Rosa and her opponent is Lena Landsberg"

THE MMA GURU

View all 13 fights

Luana Santos - Fight History

SCHED vs Karol Rosa

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · Jun 20, 2026

WIN vs Melissa Croden

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Melissa Croden	0	22 of 74	29%	56 of 109	0 of 1	0%	0	1	0:44
Luana Santos	0	12 of 24	50%	93 of 110	3 of 7	42%	1	0	9:21

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Melissa Croden	7 of 27	25%	21 of 41	0 of 1	0%	0	1	0:44
1	Luana Santos	10 of 13	76%	33 of 37	1 of 3	33%	0	0	1:51
2	Melissa Croden	10 of 21	47%	30 of 42	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
2	Luana Santos	2 of 8	25%	14 of 23	1 of 2	50%	1	0	3:41
3	Melissa Croden	5 of 26	19%	5 of 26	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
3	Luana Santos	0 of 3	0%	46 of 50	1 of 2	50%	0	0	3:49

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Melissa Croden	22 of 74	29%	9 of 53	7 of 8	6 of 13	18 of 69	4 of 5	0 of 0
Luana Santos	12 of 24	50%	6 of 16	4 of 5	2 of 3	10 of 20	2 of 3	0 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Melissa Croden	7 of 27	25%	1 of 17	4 of 5	2 of 5	4 of 23	3 of 4	0 of 0
1	Luana Santos	10 of 13	76%	5 of 7	3 of 4	2 of 2	8 of 10	2 of 3	0 of 0
2	Melissa Croden	10 of 21	47%	6 of 14	2 of 2	2 of 5	9 of 20	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Luana Santos	2 of 8	25%	1 of 6	1 of 1	0 of 1	2 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 1
3	Melissa Croden	5 of 26	19%	2 of 22	1 of 1	2 of 3	5 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Luana Santos	0 of 3	0%	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Melissa Croden vs. Luana Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Odds: Santos (-130); Croden (+110)

Round 1
Making a stop off in the women’s bantamweight division, attention shifts to an interesting stylistic clash pitting a striker against a lady who likes to submit opponents by any means necessary. Santos (9-2, 4-1 UFC) at 25 years of age will clock in significantly younger than 34-year-old Canuck Croden (7-2, 1-0 UFC), and perhaps because of this, the odds are slightly in the Brazilian’s favor. Taking charge of this 135-pound affair will be referee Kerry Hatley, who stands back to let the two bump fists.
The ladies stay at kickboxing range to start the fight, taking turns to land strikes on one another. Santos loops her left hook at her opponent several times, marking up Croden’s nose in the first minute of the match. Croden sticks her back with straight lefts and is prepared to stuff a takedown shot, doing so when Santos shoots. Santos bull-rushes her and tackles her to the ground with a partial head-and-arm throw, and she lands in scarf hold position with her left arm wrapped around the Canadian’s neck. With her free right hand, Santos smacks Croden in the forehead repeatedly. Croden tries to muscle her way out of the position, and Hatley warns Santos for grabbing the glove to keep her foe grounded.
Slowly and incredibly smoothly, Croden slips her neck out of danger, sliding around to Santos’ back. Santos walks off the fence to get back to her feet, and she gets out of the tie-up and walks into a body kick. The Brazilian books it towards her adversary, latching onto a clinch with hopes of chaining it into a body lock. Santos stays pressed onto Croden, nullifying her and peppering her with the occasional elbow. Croden turns her about and knees her back much harder, spamming them to the midsection until she considers her own single-leg effort at the 10-second clapper. She does not get it as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 2
They clap hands to start off the second stanza, and Croden pops forward to get off a quick calf kick. Croden jabs and sways to avoid a counter, but Santos steps forward and tags her with a right hand. When Santos is about to spin for something, Croden pushes out a front kick that disrupts it entirely. Santos settles herself and dodges a high kick, but there is something that Croden likes about that particular strike because she fires it off a few more times to bang into Santos’ raised guard. Santos is sick of dealing with those kicks, so she walks her down and bullies her into a clinch. Croden frames off with elbows to the forehead, and she thwarts the first takedown effort from the Brazilian in the process. Santos manages to hurl Croden arse-over-tea-kettle to plant the Canadian flat on her back, and she climbs into top position.
Croden locks down her foe by hooking her arm around Santos’ preventing her from advancing or getting off any noteworthy offense. Santos methodically climbs through into half guard, but the butterfly hooks from Croden bring her back into the guard. Santos prefers to smother rather than strike, while Croden is looking for any small opportunity to do something, anything, from her back. Croden’s elbows may be the most effective strikes since the fight went horizontal, and Santos presses tightly chest-to-chest until Croden looks for a body triangle and push off to stand. Santos drops back and snatches up a heel hook, but she does not have her legs wrapped above the knee, so there is no tight submission in play. The grueling round ends in this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 3
One final high-five from the bantamweights kicks off the last round, with Croden slowly advancing towards her opponent without getting reckless. Croden flashes her jab and pitches a low kick that cannot get grabbed, and suddenly switches stances to let fly a lead-leg high kick. Santos parries it and clinches, and her first effort for an outside trip fails. Croden muscles her way off the fence, and she walks the Brazilian down and lays into her with a line of punches and a few low kicks. The first counter trip from Santos comes up short, but her second, another scarf hold-slash-head-and-arm throw puts Croden feebly on her back. Santos clings to the scarf hold position, ignoring Croden’s legs bucking behind her while she imposes her weight to crush on Croden’s face and neck.
Santos paws a few meaningless punches off the forehead that are more like tapping her on the head than actually intent on causing damage, and Croden’s bucks and kicks with all her might. Santos continues leaning on Croden’s face, doing practically zero damage but racking up control time. It is a miserable round to watch, and likely even worse for the hapless Croden. Before time runs out, Santos sits up and lifts an arm to scream to the crowd about her impending victory. When the 15-minute contest does mercifully conclude, Santos shouts and celebrates as if she just won the Super Bowl.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)

The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Melissa Croden via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Cody leans Santos, citing her youth and improvements. He thinks her takedown defense and striking are better, but acknowledges Croden's strength. He is not confident and calls it a pass, but picks Santos for the show.

"I'm going to take Luana Santos."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Luana Santos

Connor agrees with Santos, citing her youth (25) and potential. He notes that Croden looked robotic but dedicated in her last win, but Santos has more dynamic entries and takedowns. He believes Santos can surprise Croden early.

"I think I probably have to pick Santos. She seems like she has some dynamic entries and takedowns."

MMA Vivisection

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Paul confidently picks Santos, citing the Brazilian vs Canadian narrative and Santos's superior grappling. He notes Croden's takedown defense issues and thinks Santos will control the fight.

"Luana Santos is the pick. Easy."

Bookie Beatdown

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Luana Santos

Zane picks Santos, noting her dynamic entries and takedowns. He contrasts her quick start against Lisboa with Croden's slow start in the same matchup. He believes Santos can take over early before Croden warms up. He also notes that Croden is 34 and unlikely to improve significantly.

Odds: Santos opened -150, now -125; Croden opened +130, now +105. Zane thinks Santos deserves more love.

"Santos went out there and just immediately started dominating in her fight at lisboa. So yeah, santos is the pick."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Tainara Lisboa

Submission R2 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Luana Santos	0	15 of 19	78%	50 of 57	2 of 2	100%	1	0	7:57
Tainara Lisboa	0	6 of 34	17%	7 of 35	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Luana Santos	9 of 11	81%	17 of 20	1 of 1	100%	0	3:45
1	Tainara Lisboa	5 of 19	26%	6 of 20	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
2	Luana Santos	6 of 8	75%	33 of 37	1 of 1	100%	1	4:12
2	Tainara Lisboa	1 of 15	6%	1 of 15	0 of 0	---	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Luana Santos	15 of 19	78%	11 of 15	2 of 2	2 of 2	12 of 16	1 of 1	2 of 2
Tainara Lisboa	6 of 34	17%	3 of 27	1 of 5	2 of 2	6 of 34	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Luana Santos	9 of 11	81%	5 of 7	2 of 2	2 of 2	8 of 10	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Tainara Lisboa	5 of 19	26%	3 of 17	1 of 1	1 of 1	5 of 19	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Luana Santos	6 of 8	75%	6 of 8	0 of 0	0 of 0	4 of 6	0 of 0	2 of 2
2	Tainara Lisboa	1 of 15	6%	0 of 10	0 of 4	1 of 1	1 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-130), Lisboa (+110)

Round 1
The final match among women comes at the 135-pound division, as Santos (8-2, 3-1 UFC) moves up in weight to challenge “Thai Panther” Lisboa (7-2, 2-0 UFC). The former saw her solid win streak come to a halt last August because of Casey O’Neill, but she can play spoiler to Lisboa and her own five-fight victorious stretch. Referee Herb Dean will be on call for this bantamweight battle, and the countrywomen touch ‘em up before getting down to business. Lisboa measures with her jab right off the bat, pressuring her opponent and throwing a kick at the same time Santos does. They jab at one another; Lisboa catches a kick to counter over the top. Santos sneaks in a left hand, swaying and moving as Lisboa tries to counter. Santos sticks out a front kick too long, but this is intentional as it distracts Lisboa enough and makes her try to throw back. She uses this to set up a takedown, where she bowls Lisboa over and climbs into side control. Santos uses a scarf hold to look to pass to mount, and instead gladly assumes north-south position. Lisboa tries to crawl out the back by throwing her legs up and around the back, but Santos calmly works out of it and puts herself flat in half guard. Lisboa pushes off the cage to try to get to a better position, and Santos is simultaneously looking to step into mount. This results in a stalemate, with little offense coming as Santos would rather take a dominant position. She rolls Lisboa over to try to take her back, but Lisboa calmly works to her knees. When Lisboa reaches her feet, the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 2
While they do touch gloves, Lisboa is rushing forward to get going and try to make up lost ground. She backs Santos off with her jab, and she fakes a knee and scores a body kick with her other leg. Santos times a one-two down the pipe, and she scoots away. When Lisboa sets her feet down to engage, Santos counters her over the top. As Lisboa commits to strikes, a half-hearted front kick from her leaves her wide open to the takedown. Santos gladly accepts this and puts Lisboa on her back, where she is immediately in high side control as she wraps her arms around her foe’s head with a scarf hold. Lisboa tries again to wrap her legs up and around to get the back, but she does not have the same flexibility and energy as she did the last round to get anywhere. Santos holds her down in the scarf hold position, not using it for submission purposes but instead grinding it and just making Lisboa’s life generally miserable. All of Lisboa’s flailing leg movements do nothing to improve her position, as Santos is so high up on her body flattening her out. Every so often, Santos thumps her foe with short right hands, but no blow has any significant impact. Santos considers isolating Lisboa’s right arm, but this allows Lisboa to turn her body. As Lisboa keeps turning, she inadvertently gives up her back, and Santos wraps her legs around the waist and has both hooks in. Santos climbs to maintain partial back control that she uses to slip into full mount, and she drops down a punch or two before suffocating Lisboa further. Santos uses heavy chest pressure to keep Lisboa pinned, but she is not willing to take the risk of posturing up far.
With seconds left on the clock, Santos does not ride it out and instead latches on to a keylock and/or Americana. Lisboa clings to her left arm, which is starting to torque badly as one can imagine tendons and ligaments screaming out from the unusual tension. Santos cranks with all she has, and Lisboa taps out of the sight of Dean and then speaks out.
Dean confirms with her that it was a surrender and separates the two, with Santos notching the buzzer-beating submission that has become a rarity inside the Octagon and even more infrequent among women—remarkably, the first for a female UFC fighter.

The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Tainara Lisboa R2 4:59 via Submission (Keylock)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Tainara Lisboa

Angelo picks Tainara Lisboa, following the public trend as the line moved from Santos being favorite to underdog. He sees it as a 50/50 fight where Lisboa is the better striker and Santos the better grappler. He notes that Santos relies heavily on judo throws and if Lisboa can stay off the cage, she can land the more meaningful strikes. He also suggests parlaying the over 2.5 rounds in this fight with another women's fight.

Angelo suggests parlaying the over 2.5 rounds in this fight with another women's fight.

"Tinara is going to be the pick. Probably lands the more meaningful strikes."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Tainara Lisboa

Big Brady leans with Tainara Lisboa as a dog, noting she is the better striker with solid grappling. He is concerned about Lisboa's injury layoff but thinks if she is healthy, it's a close fight. He picks Lisboa by decision with little confidence.

Lisboa by decision

"I'm going to lean with Lizboa with little to no confidence. ... I'll go Lisboa by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Luana Santos

The host agrees with the line moving towards Santos but with not a lot of confidence. He thinks her BJJ black belt and judo background will allow her to get positions on the ground to avoid Lisboa's Muay Thai striking advantage. However, he notes Santos has been flaky in the striking realm and may have trouble if she can't close the gap. He gives her the benefit of the doubt to grind out a decision win.

Santos by decision

"I think her grappling background from her BJJ black belt and her black belt in judo will allow her to get these positions she needs on the ground."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Luana Santos

The Guru picks Luana Santos but admits he doesn't know why, calling it a guess. He notes Santos is young (25) and lost to Casey O'Neill, while Lisboa barely edged a decision. He predicts a 29-28 decision, possibly with a late submission. He rambles about a dog controversy and seems uncertain.

Santos to land more than 30.5 significant strikes (via Prize Picks)

"I am going to go with Lana Santos, but I'm going to just be real with you guys here. I don't know why."

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Casey O'Neill

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Casey O'Neill	0	83 of 193	43%	113 of 227	0 of 2	0%	1	0	2:21
Luana Santos	0	41 of 97	42%	46 of 102	1 of 5	20%	0	0	2:21

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Casey O'Neill	24 of 54	44%	29 of 59	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
1	Luana Santos	16 of 34	47%	20 of 38	0 of 0	---	0	1:16
2	Casey O'Neill	25 of 62	40%	28 of 66	0 of 1	0%	0	0:10
2	Luana Santos	12 of 32	37%	13 of 33	1 of 4	25%	0	1:05
3	Casey O'Neill	34 of 77	44%	56 of 102	0 of 0	---	1	2:11
3	Luana Santos	13 of 31	41%	13 of 31	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Casey O'Neill	83 of 193	43%	60 of 163	12 of 19	11 of 11	69 of 177	5 of 7	9 of 9
Luana Santos	41 of 97	42%	26 of 75	10 of 17	5 of 5	41 of 94	0 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Casey O'Neill	24 of 54	44%	15 of 44	3 of 4	6 of 6	23 of 53	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Luana Santos	16 of 34	47%	10 of 25	4 of 7	2 of 2	16 of 33	0 of 1	0 of 0
2	Casey O'Neill	25 of 62	40%	19 of 51	4 of 9	2 of 2	21 of 56	4 of 6	0 of 0
2	Luana Santos	12 of 32	37%	7 of 23	4 of 8	1 of 1	12 of 30	0 of 2	0 of 0
3	Casey O'Neill	34 of 77	44%	26 of 68	5 of 6	3 of 3	25 of 68	0 of 0	9 of 9
3	Luana Santos	13 of 31	41%	9 of 27	2 of 2	2 of 2	13 of 31	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-162), O’Neill (+136)

Round 1
Once an uber-hot prospect at the women’s flyweight division, the excitement and momentum have cooled for O'Neill (9-2, 4-2 UFC), who comes into this fight as the crowd favorite despite her birth country being Scotland. While the Xtreme Couture product has lost her last two, Brazil’s Santos (8-1, 3-0 UFC) is flying high, winner of five straight including three in the Octagon. Taking charge of this bout will be referee Rich Mitchell, and he clocks the ladies in as they opt to touch gloves. O'Neill lashes out with an early low kick and punches her way into range, and she slips back to dodge counterpunches. O'Neill kicks the front leg again, only to be met with a left hook. Santos chips back at the front leg twice, with O'Neill trying to line up a right hand back her direction. Santos holds her arm out and swings with the other behind it, and she kicks and gets thrown to the floor. The two scramble right back to their feet, and Santos holds on with a standing guillotine choke to bully O'Neill to the fence. Santos presses hard against the cage wall, slipping around to take the back and attack a single from behind. O'Neill keeps her balance and knees her foe in the torso a few times, only to be lifted up with responsive knees. O'Neill pushes off of Santos’ face to separate, and she walks Santos down and connects with a trio of punches and a chopping calf kick. Santos clips her with a right hand over the top, and she lands flush with a few punches while O'Neill wants to slug it out with her. Santos kicks the body and scurries away to avoid any counters, and O'Neill marches her down and kicks her front leg. O'Neill wings a right hand, but a straight left is more accurate. O'Neill connects with three punches, forcing Santos to bounce off the wall. They both let their hands go, with O'Neill landing first and harder. O'Neill clubs her opponent with overhand rights as Santos tries to kick, and she gets knocked off-balance but throws back hard to make Santos bounce off the cage wall again. They land at the same time, and O'Neill tries to time one such meeting with a knee. Santos misses a jumping switch kick, and she has a spinning back fist blocked. O'Neill walks Santos down and punches her in the face a few more times until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill

Round 2
Gloves are briefly touched to begin Round 2, and O'Neill is the aggressor right from the start. She lands a right hand and a body kick, and Santos catches the latter and slings O'Neill to the mat. Santos grabs the glove to get up, and she is warned for the foul. O'Neill manages her way back to her feet, and Santos gloms onto her from behind looking to trip or suffocate her opponent. O'Neill twists and turns, but Santos will not give her an inch of space. O'Neill tries to turn the tables and elevate the Brazilian, and her power move results in Santos stumbling, allowing her to get away. O'Neill returns to her stalking pace, landing a right hand and blocking the responses. O'Neill plants three fists on the chin and a leg kick to follow, keeping Santos guessing by mixing up her offense just enough. Santos kicks her in the ribs and strafes to the side, and O'Neill meets her with an overhand right. Santos goes wide with a hook, allowing O'Neill to retaliate with a trio of speedy blows. O'Neill overswings her way into an accidental takedown setup, and she abandons it to knee Santos in the head repeatedly. Santos shells up and gets caught with punches that wrap around her raised guard before she scoots away. O'Neill times a right hand when Santos kicks her, and Santos is striking back but is beaten to the punch time and time again. Santos jabs and parries, trying for a looping right when O'Neill kicks at her but is out of range. Santos lands two punches, hops back and then puts two more punches on the Brazilian’s chin. A clinch results in O'Neill sneaking in a knee, and Santos breaks off before anything else can catch her. Santos lands once, and O'Neill hits her back three times right before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill

Round 3
Fists are touched, and the fight resumes almost exactly where it ended in the last round. O'Neill clubs Santos with a short combination, and Santos tries and fails to get her back. Santos jabs out and is met with counters, and she leaps forward to get off a right hand. The Brazilian jabs the body, and O'Neill walks her down and busts her in the chops with a series of punches. O'Neill loads up on power punches that knock Santos around, but Santos is tough as can be and wears them well. Santos misses with a right hand, allowing O'Neill to counter her with a power right. O'Neill strings together a few punches and a knee, and Santos is the slower of the two and almost never strikes first. O'Neill jabs high, low and then wings a right hand that gets around the guard. O'Neill allows Santos to come to her so she can meet her with harder blows, with effective right hands that continue to find their home. Punches are traded, and Santos suddenly does not like what is happening and she tries to take the fight down with an ill-advised head lock. O'Neill spins her around and counters a twister setup, resulting in her taking the Brazilian’s back with a quick body triangle set up. Santos hand-fights to prevent any choke from coming anywhere close, but she gets softened up with strikes from both sides. Santos is warned for grabbing inside of the glove, and Mitchell pauses the fight to tell her what is not allowed even though fighters are given instructions before every fight. Santos looks upset that she was called on it, and O'Neill hangs on after the restart to continue working. O'Neill wraps a rear-naked choke grip on the jaw and ends up with a face crank, and she thwacks Santos on the kidney with heel kicks until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)

The Official Result
Casey O’Neill def. Luana Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Angelo picks Luana Santos because of her slick grappling and Judo, which he believes will be too much for Casey O'Neill, who was recently submitted quickly by Ariane Lipski. He notes that defending Judo throws is different from defending cage takedowns, and Santos should be able to get the fight to the ground and control it. He has a half-unit bet on Santos at -140, citing the short notice and travel as reasons for the reduced stake.

Half unit at -140

"I have a half a unit on her at minus 14 the only reason it's a half a unit and not a whole unit is ultimately this is short notice she is traveling to the other side of the world."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Casey O'Neill

Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision. He notes O'Neill has good cardio, high output (almost 9 significant strikes per minute), solid wrestling, and a good ground game. He expects Santos to have success early with takedowns, but as the fight goes on, O'Neill's cardio and volume will take over. He also mentions Santos is taking the fight on short notice and is traveling to Australia, while O'Neill is Australian. He acknowledges O'Neill has looked bad in recent fights but believes this is a step down in competition.

decision

"I'm going to go Casey O'Neil here to win this fight and I'm going to take her to win by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Cody highlights Santos' youth, judo black belt, and recent winning streak, while O'Neill has lost two straight and shown poor striking defense and grappling. He notes Santos can take O'Neill down and control her, and that O'Neill lacks power to earn respect. Cody expects Santos to win the first two rounds and coast.

"I gotta go Lana gotta go Lana Santos here"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Santos but is not confident, citing O'Neill's volume and tenacity as concerns. He notes that Santos is young and improving, and that O'Neill may be overcorrected in the market after two losses. Vreeland acknowledges the fight is close and that he has no strong read, but leans toward Santos due to recency bias and physical attributes.

"I am picking Lana here but I mean dude I have no idea what's gonna happen in this fight I don't have a confident pick"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Luana Santos

The host leans to Santos, citing her technical advantages and submission threat. He notes O'Neill's wrestling could be a factor, but expects Santos to control positions and potentially submit her. He mentions Santos' submission prop at +600 as a possible nibble, but is cautious due to Santos taking the fight on short notice and traveling.

Santos by submission (+600)

"I still believe she can come out on top and more than likely by submission"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Paul agrees, noting that O'Neill's hype train has derailed after losses to tougher competition. He points out that Santos has legitimate potential, as shown by her takedown of Stephanie Edgar and destruction of Agapova. Paul believes Santos can do whatever she wants in the fight and that O'Neill's volume lacks power.

"Santos is the uh is the sharp side"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Casey O'Neill

The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Luana Santos. He initially jokes about picking Santos but settles on O'Neill. He acknowledges O'Neill's losses to Ariane Lipski and Jennifer Maia but notes she has more experience and has been training since those losses. He criticizes Santos' wins over Mariya Agapova (calling her a heroin addict) and Juliana Miller (calling her a can). He is surprised O'Neill is an underdog and takes that value. He predicts a unanimous decision win for O'Neill.

Unanimous decision, surprised she's an underdog

"I'm actually going with Casey O'Neal what are the odds for that fight... Casey O'Neal is an underdog I'm taking that"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Mariya Agapova

Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:27 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Luana Santos	0	2 of 4	50%	9 of 12	1 of 1	100%	3	0	2:23
Mariya Agapova	0	3 of 14	21%	20 of 31	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Luana Santos	0	2 of 4	50%	9 of 12	1 of 1	100%	3	0	2:23
1	Mariya Agapova	0	3 of 14	21%	20 of 31	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Luana Santos	2 of 4	50%	2 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0
Mariya Agapova	3 of 14	21%	1 of 5	0 of 2	2 of 7	3 of 14	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Luana Santos	2 of 4	50%	2 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Mariya Agapova	3 of 14	21%	1 of 5	0 of 2	2 of 7	3 of 14	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Mariya Agapova vs. Luana Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-395), Agapova (+280)

Round 1
Momentum is the name of the game for this upcoming flyweight tilt, as Santos (7-1, 2-0 UFC) has some behind her as the winner of four straight. Her adversary Agapova (10-4, 2-3 UFC) has struggled as of late, dropping two in a row by submission while not competing since September 2022. This classic matchup of Brazil vs. Kazakhstan will receive oversight from referee Joe Coca, and a clap of hands commences it. Agapova looks for strikes well out of range, and Santos reaches her with a body kick. Agapova stays back, leaping forward with a right hand and missing again. Santos closes in and connects with a pair of strikes, and Agapova dances away. Agapova jabs feet away from the target, and Santos strides forward brimming with confidence and decks Agapova with a right hand. Agapova climbs back to her feet, and Santos slings her right back down to the mat with emphasis. The Brazilian commits to an arm-triangle choke as she gets to half guard, and lets it go so she can facilitate a guard pass to the side. Agapova tries to use her legs to trap Santos in something and pull her back, but when this fails, Santos steps over into full mount and goes after an arm-triangle immediately. Santos gets the grip tight, and Agapova signals a thumbs-up and turns to the side to protect herself, all while coughing out her mouthpiece to breathe better. Santos resets and presses down, bailing on it to land a few body shots and then re-fastening the submission. Agapova keeps her mouthpiece barely in her teeth and turns around to get to her knees.
Santos follows her every step of the way and locks up the rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye. Agapova nearly lets her gumshield fall out of her mouth in desperation while fighting the hands, but there is nothing more she can do at this point. Agapova frantically taps
and completely spits her mouthpiece out as she feels consciousness leaving her body, and Coca rushes between them to conclude the fight. Santos jumps away and starts dancing, and the crowd eats it up.

The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Mariya Agapova R1 3:27 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Angelo is extremely confident in Luana Santos due to a clear stylistic advantage: Santos has fantastic takedowns while Agapova has poor takedown defense. He expects Santos to grapple heavily and control the fight, similar to her performance against Stephanie Egger. He advises getting bets in early as Santos will likely be a heavy favorite by fight night.

Expects Santos to be minus 500 by fight night; advises to get bets in early.

"Lena Santos has fantastic takedowns Maria agapova has garbage takedown defense it literally is that simple"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Cody picks Santos, citing her superior grappling and youth. He notes Agapova's personal issues, inactivity, and poor cardio. He expects Santos to take Agapova down and submit her, possibly in the first round.

Santos by submission (implied)

"Lana Santos is going to put a beat in onor here."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Santos to win via ground control. He questions Agapova's mental state and ground game, noting that she gives up bad positions on the mat. He thinks Santos will take the fight to the ground and finish. He acknowledges Agapova's danger on the feet but expects Santos to avoid that.

"I'm gonna go with Lana to get this done when it hits the mat."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Luana Santos

Santos is too chalky but still likely wins. The fight is expected to go over 1.5 rounds and hit the scorecards. Santos will control the matchup, land a few takedowns, but Agapova will show enough resistance to reach a decision. The best attack is Santos by decision.

Santos by decision; over 1.5 rounds

"I expect this fight to go over one and a half rounds and I expect this fight to actually hit the scorecards so I think the best way to attack this matchup is actually taking Santos to win by decision"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Paul picks Santos, citing her grappling advantage and Agapova's questionable preparation. He notes Agapova's long layoff and altitude, and believes Santos will submit her. He suggests betting Santos by submission at plus money.

Santos by submission (implied)

"Luana Santos by submission I wonder what the prop is on that."

Bookie Beatdown

WIN vs Stephanie Egger

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Luana Santos	0	53 of 104	50%	97 of 161	2 of 4	50%	0	0	7:44
Stephanie Egger	0	44 of 115	38%	112 of 193	1 of 1	100%	0	0	1:06

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Luana Santos	20 of 45	44%	42 of 73	0 of 1	0%	2:34
1	Stephanie Egger	13 of 39	33%	36 of 68	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Luana Santos	28 of 45	62%	34 of 51	1 of 2	50%	2:28
2	Stephanie Egger	20 of 49	40%	37 of 67	0 of 0	---	0:23
3	Luana Santos	5 of 14	35%	21 of 37	1 of 1	100%	2:42
3	Stephanie Egger	11 of 27	40%	39 of 58	1 of 1	100%	0:43

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Luana Santos	53 of 104	50%	20 of 61	22 of 29	11 of 14	50 of 95	3 of 9	0 of 0
Stephanie Egger	44 of 115	38%	31 of 97	13 of 17	0 of 1	29 of 96	15 of 19	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Luana Santos	20 of 45	44%	6 of 25	10 of 14	4 of 6	20 of 44	0 of 1	0 of 0
1	Stephanie Egger	13 of 39	33%	5 of 28	8 of 10	0 of 1	5 of 29	8 of 10	0 of 0
2	Luana Santos	28 of 45	62%	11 of 24	10 of 13	7 of 8	26 of 42	2 of 3	0 of 0
2	Stephanie Egger	20 of 49	40%	19 of 47	1 of 2	0 of 0	18 of 45	2 of 4	0 of 0
3	Luana Santos	5 of 14	35%	3 of 12	2 of 2	0 of 0	4 of 9	1 of 5	0 of 0
3	Stephanie Egger	11 of 27	40%	7 of 22	4 of 5	0 of 0	6 of 22	5 of 5	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Stephanie Egger vs. Luana Santos (139: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-185), Egger (+154)

Round 1
The final women’s bout on the card comes at a catchweight of 139 pounds, as former flyweight Santos (6-1, 1-0 UFC) tipped the scales three pounds heavy for her bantamweight bout against Egger (8-4, 3-3 UFC). The Swiss woman will come out with a heavier bag of cash than expected, as Santos has surrendered 20% of her fight purse as a result. The cage commander for this clash will be referee Herb Dean. There is an apologetic touch of gloves offered by the heavy woman to get things started, and it is accepted. Santos leads off with rangy, awkward strikes from strange angles. Egger keeps her guard high and parries most of the strikes that come her way, as Santos is overextending and winging strikes from various directions. Santos crowds her way in, throwing a clubbing right hand to get Egger’s attention, and she backs her off with a front kick. Egger shakes it off and plods forward, sticking out a jab and a right hand. Egger reaches out, dings the Brazilian on the cheek, and accidentally hooks her finger into Santos’ top. Dean allows them to reset so there is no wardrobe malfunction, and they return to their tit-for-tat striking exchanges. Egger pushes in and drives a knee to the chest, and Santos stops a throw attempt and turns Egger around. The two trade knees on the inside, and trip attempts fail from both sides. Egger gets a bit of space away from the cage as they continue to knee one another in the belly, and Santos keeps her hands on the Swiss woman to otherwise shut her down. Egger connects with a heel kick to the thigh and knees up the middle hard enough to stun Santos for a second, and she times a knee on the chin when Santos ducks down. The uneventful round ends with the two tied up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 2
The two clap hands to get the second round started, and Egger paws out a jab shortly thereafter. Santos responds with three leg kicks, and Egger swings so hard that she falls on her hands. Santos cannot capitalize on this mistake, instead backing off to let the Swiss fighter stand back up. Egger slowly plods forward before swinging an overhand right at her foe, and this leads to a clinch to pick up where they left off, only with Egger the one pressing. Santos spins away, but she takes a knee on the break. Santos sticks out a one-two, and a low kick comes after it. Egger catches a front kick and lines up a right hand, and Santos shakes her head and continues throwing. Egger wings reckless punches, and Santos tries and fails to time a trip. The Brazilian settles for pushing Egger against the fence, until she manages to toss Egger to the canvas. Egger stands back up, fighting off hooks that Santos attempts to slide in, but Santos has her gripped from behind. Santos looks to drag Egger down from behind, until she turns to the side and gloms her full body weight on Egger. Egger attempts a Thai plum clinch, but Santos fights off the hands before Egger can knee her on the chin. Santos changes levels, but Egger fights this off and separates. Santos throws several punches and lands one, and Egger awkwardly throws back. Santos gets in two more left hands, and Egger cannot find her way in as Santos pecks at her and jabs her. Egger ignores the blows and chains three strong punches together that get Santos’ attention, leading Santos to force a clinch. Egger hacks with a downward elbow to try for any offense while pinned against the wire, and the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Egger
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Egger
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Egger

Round 3
There is one final clap of hands to start the round, and Egger pushes on the accelerator and bullies Santos back. Santos reaches with long jabs, and Egger grabs hold of her to knee her twice. The Brazilian takes advantage of this position by hip tossing Egger to the mat, dropping Egger right on her head. Santos looks for a scarf hold from there, but Egger deftly fights it off and forces her way back to the feet. As soon as Egger pushes Santos to the fence, Dean calls them to work. Santos muscles Egger around to press her back against the wall, and she peppers with light knees and foot stomps until Dean asks them for more activity. Santos continues to impose her weight until Dean steps in, and Santos takes a very deep breath. Egger thanks Dean for this by rushing after Santos, and she blasts Santos in the face with a long combination. When Santos walks away, Egger stands still, until the Swiss woman wades back into combat. Santos times this with a level change, and although she cannot get the fight to the mat, she squeezes the aggressive Egger against the cage. Santos knees the thigh and stomps Egger’s foot, and Dean continues to call for more work. With Santos doing nothing, Dean splits them up at the 45-second mark. Egger pushes forward until Santos attempts a takedown. Egger turns the corner and drags Santos to her knees, landing left hands as time ticks off the clock. A few pitter-patter strikes from Egger conclude the lackluster match.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Egger (29-28 Egger)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-10 (29-29)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Egger (29-28 Egger)

The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Stephanie Egger via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Cody picks Luana Santos. He notes that Santos is a much better striker with speed and cardio. He acknowledges Egger's size and grappling advantage but thinks Santos can survive early takedowns and win on the feet. Cody points out that Egger's striking is poor and she gasses. He believes Santos can keep the fight standing and outpoint Egger, or even finish her late.

"I got to stick with Santos"

Bookie Beatdown

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Paul picks Luana Santos. He notes that Santos has a significant striking advantage and Egger's only path is takedowns. Paul points out that Egger doesn't do much with top control and judges don't reward it. He thinks Santos can get back to her feet and outland Egger. Paul is avoiding the 'CF dot model' and going with Santos.

"I am avoiding the CF dot model the pat Mayo special here I'm going with Santos as well"

Bookie Beatdown

WIN vs Juliana Miller

TKO (punches) R1 3:41 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Luana Santos	0	24 of 75	32%	25 of 77	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:29
Juliana Miller	0	63 of 105	60%	64 of 106	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:26

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Luana Santos	0	24 of 75	32%	25 of 77	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:29
1	Juliana Miller	0	63 of 105	60%	64 of 106	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:26

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Luana Santos	24 of 75	32%	15 of 61	9 of 13	0 of 1	18 of 64	6 of 11	0 of 0
Juliana Miller	63 of 105	60%	44 of 82	16 of 20	3 of 3	53 of 88	10 of 17	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Luana Santos	24 of 75	32%	15 of 61	9 of 13	0 of 1	18 of 64	6 of 11	0 of 0
1	Juliana Miller	63 of 105	60%	44 of 82	16 of 20	3 of 3	53 of 88	10 of 17	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Juliana Miller vs. Luana Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-155), Miller (+130)

Round 1
Fight fans have now passed the midpoint of what will be the longest stretch of consecutive UFC weekends, and there are only seven to go including UFC on ESPN 51. This will be the last event in the Apex until its streak-ending Sept. 23 show, and it is certainly a fight card. As mentioned in a previous article, 15 of the 26 fighters tonight are coming in having lost their last bouts, and eight of those have dropped two in a row or more. It all starts with grappler-on-grappler action in the women’s flyweight division, as “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 30 victor Miller (3-2, 1-1 UFC) looks to lift her promotional record above .500. She takes on promotional newcomer Santos (5-1, 0-0 UFC), who made her way to the UFC not through the Contender Series or any of the other feeder programs, but from the LFA. This opening bout draws the assignment of referee Jason Herzog, and it begins without a touch of gloves as Miller charges like a bull. The two ladies immediately start swinging, and Miller snaps the head back with a few heavy blows. Miller’s aggression leads her into a clinch, where she immediately presses onto her opponent while kneeing her in the gut. Santos turns the corner and splits apart, and she resets. Miller walks her down, stutter-stepping her way in and throwing hammers. Santos sits down on a right hand to catch her on the way in, but Miller completely ignores it and keeps on storming forward. Miller puts her hands on Santos’ face, not landing with any individually damaging blow, but getting Santos’ attention. The Brazilian woman steels herself and launches a bomb of a right hand that bangs right into Miller’s temple, rocking “Killer.” Santos does not let her foe off the hook, as she slugs away and even mixes in a head kick as Miller leans her back to the wall to stay upright. Miller leans forward to try to slow things down, and Santos snatches up a guillotine choke that ends up with the two ladies landing on the mat. Santos releases her grip to allow them back to their feet, and she stays right in Miller’s grill throwing hands. Santos belts her foe in the jaw a few times, and Miller wobbles back to the wall and tries to counter but is only flailing. Santos smashes Miller in the face, and Miller reels and is in big trouble. Santos pours it on with fists flying, and she connects repeatedly and does not care about anything Miller gives back to her. Herzog is taking a close eye on the action, and Santos tries to force a stoppage by laying into Miller with everything she has.
The punches keep coming, and Miller drops to a knee and fights her way back up. Miller may be out on her feet, and Santos continues busting her in the chops until Herzog has seen enough.
This is a statement performance for the debuting Santos, who earns her first career knockout in her biggest fight to date. Meanwhile, she also becomes the first fighter to finish the TUF victor as a professional.
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The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Juliana Miller R1 3:41 via TKO (Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Angelo picks Santos confidently, citing her judo background and slick grappling versus Miller's lack of skill and poor takedown defense. He notes Miller was a terrible -450 favorite who couldn't defend takedowns. He already placed a quarter unit at -140 and expects the line to move further.

Already bet 0.25 units at -140

"I got Luana Santos at minus 140 two days ago"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Juliana Miller

Big Brady picks Juliana Miller to win by decision, but is not confident. He notes Miller's terrible striking defense but good grappling. He thinks Santos's head-and-arm throws could be reversed by Miller, leading to back takes. He calls the line a 'massive over correction' and sees Miller as a live dog. However, he admits he doesn't want to bet it.

"oh my gosh I'm taking Juliana Miller am I am I betting it I don't want to but I mean we'll see where this line goes um give me Juliana Miller to win this fight by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Cody picks Santos, citing her judo black belt and solid takedown entries. He criticizes Miller's wrestling and striking, noting she was taken down four times by Veronica Hardy. He thinks Santos can get the fight to the mat and control it. He also notes Santos' only losses are to a high-level grappler (Jenna Bishop). He believes Santos would have won The Ultimate Fighter season if she were on it.

"Luana Santos I think is viable at -160 uh here"

Bookie Beatdown

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Juliana Miller

James leans toward Miller as a potential underdog, noting Santos didn't look great in her last fight and Miller is gritty. However, he hasn't done full tape and is not confident. He sees possible value on Miller but needs to study more.

"I like Miller a little bit in this matchup... there may be some value on Miller here."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Juliana Miller

Miller is a BJJ black belt who does her best work on the ground, but her striking is lacking. Santos is a newcomer with a BJJ and Judo black belt, but she is not the type of striker that Hardy was, who used lateral movement to avoid takedowns. Miller should be able to drag the fight to the ground and grind out a decision. The recency bias has made Miller a plus 140 dog after being a minus 400 favorite in her last fight, which is a value spot.

Miller by decision

"I'm going to go with Miller to win this fight by decision and take her to kick this card off with an upset"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Luana Santos

Paul picks Santos, agreeing that Miller is overrated. He notes Miller's poor wrestling and striking, and that Santos is the better striker and grappler. He thinks Santos' judo will neutralize Miller's wrestling and that Santos can win by decision or submission. He also mentions that the line opened with the wrong fighter favored.

"yes he is the pick so even though I got to pay some steam on it it's just I gotta I gotta do it"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Luana Santos

The MMA Guru picks Luana Santos based on Juliana Miller's poor performance in her last fight, where she showed no skill, bad stand-up, and poor submission attempts. He notes that women's MMA is unpredictable but trusts Santos's age (23) and regional wins. He emphasizes that after watching Miller's last fight, he cannot logically pick her again.

"I'm gonna go with Luana Santos purely because of the fact that I watched Julianna Miller's last fight and um that's all there is to it really"

THE MMA GURU

Karol Rosa

Luana Santos

Career Averages - Karol Rosa

Career Averages - Luana Santos

Karol Rosa

Luana Santos

Karol Rosa - Fight History

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