Career Averages - Amir Albazi
Career Averages - Kai Kara-France
Amir Albazi
Kai Kara-France
Amir Albazi - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 16 of 67 | 23% | 20 of 75 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
| Kyoji Horiguchi | 0 | 73 of 136 | 53% | 99 of 163 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 3 of 17 | 17% | 4 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Kyoji Horiguchi | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 26 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 | |
| 2 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 8 of 27 | 29% | 9 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Kyoji Horiguchi | 0 | 34 of 58 | 58% | 45 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 5 of 23 | 21% | 7 of 25 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Kyoji Horiguchi | 0 | 25 of 52 | 48% | 28 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 16 of 67 | 23% | 12 of 62 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 60 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Kyoji Horiguchi | 73 of 136 | 53% | 65 of 123 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 7 | 71 of 133 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 3 of 17 | 17% | 2 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyoji Horiguchi | 14 of 26 | 53% | 10 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amir Albazi | 8 of 27 | 29% | 6 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyoji Horiguchi | 34 of 58 | 58% | 30 of 52 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 33 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amir Albazi | 5 of 23 | 21% | 4 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 19 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Kyoji Horiguchi | 25 of 52 | 48% | 25 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Horiguchi (-350); Albazi (+275)
Round 1
The flyweight title picture is foggy given the unknown status of ex-champ Alexandre Pantoja, while current beltholder Joshua Van is practically begging for the next challenge. It could come from this co-headliner that pits Albazi (17-2, 5-1 UFC) against Horiguchi (35-5, 1 NC; 8-1 UFC), depending on how everything else shakes out. Referee Keith Peterson is on this one. Better not be any nonsense while he’s on top of things.
Horiguchi offers a glove touch, and Albazi shakes his head and wants to fight. When the bout begins, he marches forward but pulls back before engaging. Horiguchi’s open stance and active movement give him pause, as Horiguchi lands first with a low kick from an unorthodox angle. The fighter from Japan hurls a one-two over the top and slams a low kick after. Horiguchi ducks down to avoid a strike and change levels, where he pushes “The Prince” up against the links. Knees come from both fighters, and Peterson tells them they need more than this. Horiguchi decides to break off and find a new way in. He jumps forward with a knee that he does not raise up, and he avoids a right hand counter to score with a couple punches.
Albazi bullies the Japanese fighter back, looping a big right hand at him but getting caught with one as well. Horiguchi slips in a left hook and a one-two, beating the larger Albazi to the punch and reddening his nose. Horiguchi pins down a one-two on the beak, and Albazi waves him on. They both wing hooks at one another, and a big left hand sends Horiguchi somersaulting backwards. Horiguchi springs back up, and the power of Albazi has caught him by surprise. Albazi drops to a knee when going after his man, and he grabs hold of the body and knees Horiguchi in the chest. Albazi lets go of the attempt and keeps him pinned against the cage for some time, until Horiguchi wants to escape and does. Horiguchi sticks Albazi with a left hand and stutter-steps his way in to deliver a body kick to the ribs. The round ends with plenty of feints.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Albazi
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Albazi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Albazi
Round 2
Albazi moves right to the center of the cage, darting away from a big right hand and a kick but getting clipped when charging in. Albazi jams Horiguchi up against the fence, dropping low for a double and clasping his hands around the waist. Horiguchi breaks that grip and frames off with his knee, and he escapes without much concern. Horiguchi finds his range and scores on Albazi, marking up the Iraqi athlete with punches including a left hand that opens a cut on the temple. Horiguchi darts in and out, throwing Albazi off-balance and blasting him with a right hand that wobbles him. Albazi backs away quickly to gather his thoughts, and Horiguchi is on him, cracking him with another left that draws a wobble. Horiguchi plants a one-two on the chin, and his speed is frazzling “The Prince.”
Albazi tries to stalk down Horiguchi, who is out of range or the way when Albazi gets to him. Horiguchi keeps his hands moving constantly to never let Albazi establish a pattern, and his right and left find their home on the sides of Albazi’s head. Albazi is taking shots and trying to throw back, but Horiguchi is far more active and accurate. Albazi reaches with a right, producing a mouse under Horiguchi’s left eye, and the Japanese fighter pays it no mind. Horiguchi ducks, dips and dodges to get on the inside, where he uses a right hand so that he can initiate a tie-up. Albazi muscles him around, leaning heavily on him and even briefly holding him from behind, but Horiguchi is able to scoot away and reset. Horiguchi lashes out with a right hand and a jab, and he spins with a wheel kick that bangs into the side of Albazi’s head. Albazi blinks it out and is caught with a front kick to the body, and Horiguchi sticks him with a right hand at the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Horiguchi
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Horiguchi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Horiguchi
Round 3
The very first strike of the last round comes two seconds in, with "The Karate Kid" clipping Albazi behind the ear. Albazi is quick to back off, and Horiguchi leaps at him with a flying knee. Albazi grabs him on the way down and looks to wrestle him, dragging Horiguchi around the cage from behind when Horiguchi tries to spin out. Albazi looks to trip out his foe from behind, and Horiguchi posts off his right arm to stay afloat. Horiguchi leans his face on the fence to take some weight off his frame, and Albazi slashes with an elbow on the break. Horiguchi is right on him, striking out with long jabs that bloody Albazi’s nose further. Horiguchi beats Albazi to the punch with a right hand, and he is able to break up Albazi’s attempt as well. Horiguchi connects with a flush left hand on the temple, and Albazi takes a second before realizing that he is way more hurt than he realizes. His legs almost give out like a baby deer, but he is able to get away and avoid a spinning wheel kick by a matter of inches.
Albazi grabs hold of Horiguchi to slow down the assault, but he cannot keep him there for long as Horiguchi breaks free and plugs him with a left hand. Albazi stumbles back and trips on the edge of the wall, regaining his footing and returning to the center of the Octagon. Horiguchi’s jab is money, messing up Albazi’s timing and further disrupting his balance. Albazi’s face is rapidly transforming to that of the Doomguy when taking damage, as it dissolves to a bloody mess. He pushes the action despite the wounds, pushing Horiguchi back and popping him with a right hand. Horiguchi splits out of the clinch to flick out his jab, and he swipes out a left, a right and a chasing left hand to make Albazi stumble yet again. A hug is where the flyweight fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Horiguchi (29-28 Horiguchi)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Horiguchi (29-28 Horiguchi)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Horiguchi (29-28 Horiguchi)
The Official Result
Kyoji Horiguchi def. Amir Albazi via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Kyoji Horiguchi, citing his spectacular performance against Tagir Ulanbekov where he dominated in all facets. He notes Horiguchi's footwork, striking, and takedown defense were incredible. He questions whether Horiguchi looked that good because Ulanbekov is overrated or because Horiguchi is that good, but ultimately rides the momentum from that win. He also mentions that despite Horiguchi being older, he may have fewer miles due to fewer surgeries compared to Albazi.
Big Brady picks Kyoji Horiguchi, impressed by his dominant win over Tagir Ulanbekov. He notes that Amir Albazi has fought only once in three years, looked poor against Amil Marino, and likely lost to Kai Kara-France. He believes Horiguchi's striking and takedown defense will be too much, and he wins by decision.
Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Albazi's inactivity and poor takedown success. He notes Horiguchi's dynamic striking and improved grappling at American Top Team. Cody believes Horiguchi's volume and damage will be decisive, especially in the Apex, and that Albazi's path to victory via control time is unlikely.
Connor agrees with Zane, calling the matchup 'nonsense' and a waste of Horiguchi. He notes that Albazi is not a contender and has been inactive, while Horiguchi is a star who should be fighting for a title. He picks Horiguchi but warns that if Horiguchi has a flat performance, it will feel like a stupid booking.
Lucrative James picks Kyoji Horiguchi to win by decision. He highlights Horiguchi's striking advantage, experience, and ability to control range, which he believes will be kryptonite for Albazi's grappling-heavy style. James notes that Albazi has been out of action for a long time and looked poor in his last fight against Brandon Moreno, while Horiguchi is on a strong run.
The host picks Horiguchi by knockout, calling him far superior in every aspect. He believes Horiguchi's takedown defense and kicking game will cause Albazi trouble, and that Albazi will be forced to strike where Horiguchi has a clear advantage. He notes Horiguchi's suspect chin is an anomaly and expects him to make it look easy.
Paul picks Kyoji Horiguchi, noting Albazi's long layoff, injury history, and low striking output. He highlights Horiguchi's speed, volume, and well-rounded skills, and doubts Albazi's takedown efficiency (32% success rate). Paul expects Horiguchi to outwork Albazi and win a decision.
The host picks Kyoji Horiguchi over Amir Albazi. He notes Horiguchi is a legend with wins over Manel Kape and Asakura, and has a karate style with power and grappling. He thinks Albazi is overrated due to a robbery win over Kai Kara-France and a poor performance against Moreno. He predicts a 30-27 decision for Horiguchi.
Zane picks Horiguchi because Albazi's slow-paced style gives Horiguchi time to set up entries. He notes that Horiguchi is a better athlete and has more tools, though he acknowledges Horiguchi's recent reliance on control wrestling and his vulnerability to being taken down. He criticizes the matchup as a waste of Horiguchi's time.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 132 of 317 | 41% | 132 of 317 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 63 of 235 | 26% | 63 of 236 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 29 of 67 | 43% | 29 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 6 of 33 | 18% | 6 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 31 of 68 | 45% | 31 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 12 of 43 | 27% | 12 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 22 of 70 | 31% | 22 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 20 of 66 | 30% | 20 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 32 of 76 | 42% | 32 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 9 of 54 | 16% | 9 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 132 of 317 | 41% | 113 of 284 | 12 of 22 | 7 of 11 | 128 of 309 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Amir Albazi | 63 of 235 | 26% | 50 of 207 | 6 of 14 | 7 of 14 | 63 of 234 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 18 of 36 | 50% | 16 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Amir Albazi | 16 of 39 | 41% | 12 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 29 of 67 | 43% | 25 of 58 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 5 | 29 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Amir Albazi | 6 of 33 | 18% | 4 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 31 of 68 | 45% | 23 of 59 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 28 of 64 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Amir Albazi | 12 of 43 | 27% | 9 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Brandon Moreno | 22 of 70 | 31% | 19 of 64 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 22 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Amir Albazi | 20 of 66 | 30% | 16 of 60 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 20 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Brandon Moreno | 32 of 76 | 42% | 30 of 70 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 72 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Amir Albazi | 9 of 54 | 16% | 9 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Amir Albazi to pull off the upset, citing Moreno's recent flat performances and loss of aura. He thinks Albazi can time takedowns and sneak out a win if Moreno looks flat-footed again. He wishes Albazi were more active with pressure and volume, like Brandon Royval. He notes the year layoff for Albazi and uncertainty about Moreno's form, so he will avoid betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno to win by decision. He questions Albazi's resume, noting his best win is a controversial decision over Kai Kara-France. Brady thinks Moreno's scrambling will neutralize Albazi's takedowns, and on the feet, Moreno is the better striker with better volume and cardio. He also cites Moreno's activity and experience in five-round fights.
Cody picks Brandon Moreno, citing his wrestling advantage over Albazi, who has only 33% takedown accuracy and 40% takedown defense. He notes Moreno's volume striking and five-round experience, but acknowledges the risk of Moreno being unmotivated after his partial retirement. He believes Moreno's reinvigorated version will win a decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Amir Albazi to upset Brandon Moreno. He believes Moreno is at a crossroads after losing the belt twice and showing signs of decline, while Albazi is in his prime and has improved significantly since his neck surgery. Vreeland notes that Albazi is a plus-150 underdog and expects a close, competitive fight where he favors the younger, hungrier fighter. He also mentions that betting against Moreno at dog odds has historically worked for him.
Lucrative James picks Amir Albazi to win by decision, citing Moreno's decline in recent fights and Albazi's control time advantage. He notes Moreno looked washed against Pantoja and Royval, while Albazi is undefeated in the UFC and has strong grappling. He believes Albazi's trajectory is higher and that Moreno's best days are behind him.
Moreno looked un-Moreno-like in his last performance, but the layoff will do wonders. He has good defensive work against wrestlers, which will allow him to keep the fight standing where he has the striking and cardio advantage, battering Albazi in three or four of the five rounds and winning on the scorecards.
Paul agrees with Cody, pointing out that Albazi's takedown defense is a red flag after being taken down twice by Kai Kara-France. He emphasizes Moreno's superior competition and durability, and believes Moreno's volume and wrestling will lead to a decision win. He also notes that Moreno's chin has held up and he's fought the best in the division.
The Guru picks Brandon Moreno over Amir Albazi, citing Albazi's long layoff and severe injuries (broken spine, neck surgery). He believes Moreno's experience and five-round cardio will be key, and he doubts Albazi can hold Moreno down or out-strike him. He predicts a close decision win for Moreno, 3-2 rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 99 of 283 | 34% | 133 of 323 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 43 of 145 | 29% | 64 of 173 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 6:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 13 of 40 | 32% | 20 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 6 of 23 | 26% | 12 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 2 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 16 of 55 | 29% | 17 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 12 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 3 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 30 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 15 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:36 | |
| 4 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 27 of 65 | 41% | 29 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 5 of 29 | 17% | 7 of 31 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 5 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 34 of 104 | 32% | 37 of 109 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 18 of 47 | 38% | 18 of 47 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 99 of 283 | 34% | 57 of 224 | 20 of 30 | 22 of 29 | 90 of 267 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 14 |
| Kai Kara-France | 43 of 145 | 29% | 31 of 125 | 6 of 13 | 6 of 7 | 39 of 135 | 1 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 13 of 40 | 32% | 7 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 6 of 23 | 26% | 2 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amir Albazi | 16 of 55 | 29% | 10 of 43 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 7 | 16 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 11 of 37 | 29% | 8 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amir Albazi | 9 of 19 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 |
| Kai Kara-France | 3 of 9 | 33% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | |
| 4 | Amir Albazi | 27 of 65 | 41% | 12 of 46 | 7 of 10 | 8 of 9 | 26 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 5 of 29 | 17% | 2 of 22 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Amir Albazi | 34 of 104 | 32% | 20 of 86 | 10 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 34 of 104 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 18 of 47 | 38% | 16 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo has a slight lean to Kara-France due to his takedown defense (86%) and UFC experience. He thinks Albazi is unproven against top competition. However, he acknowledges Kara-France may be overrated and could get overconfident. He is not betting this fight.
Cody agrees with Paul, stating it's hard to back Albazi because he hasn't faced elite competition. He highlights Kara-France's performance against Moreno, where he caused problems early. Cody notes the small cage could help Albazi but believes Kara-France's footwork and speed are clear advantages. He concludes that in a pick 'em fight, Kara-France is the value side.
Connor picks Kai Kara-France, emphasizing that Kara-France is the best counter-puncher Albazi has faced and that Albazi's pressure style may hit its ceiling. He notes that if Kara-France pressures, Albazi's game dissolves, as seen against Torres. Connor also highlights that Kara-France has improved his ability to push a pace and has better defensive wrestling, though he acknowledges Albazi's grappling danger if Kara-France makes mistakes.
Daniel argues that while Kai Kara-France has fought better competition, he has lost to all those top guys, whereas Albazi has handled everyone put in front of him. He believes Albazi's grappling upside and serviceable striking will be enough, and that Kara-France tends to fade in later rounds when pressured. He sees this as a chance for Albazi to rise to the occasion and win his first UFC main event.
Jacob picks Albazi, believing Kara-France will get overconfident in his striking and get caught. He thinks Albazi's jab and power will wear on Kara-France, leading to a takedown or knockout. Jacob notes Kara-France has a history of getting hit when he's too aggressive. He is confident Albazi wins.
Kara-France has improved defensive grappling and superior striking. Albazi will struggle to implement his grapple-heavy approach. Kara-France will stuff takedowns, land damaging blows, and win a decision. The fight likely goes over 3.5 rounds.
Paul picks Kai Kara-France based on his elite level competition and proven ability against top flyweights like Moreno and Garbrandt. He notes Albazi's wins are against lower-tier opponents and his last fight showed low output and takedown struggles. Paul sees Kara-France as the more reliable pick with better experience and accuracy, while Albazi is more of a hope. He mentions the small cage might help Albazi but believes Kara-France's footwork and speed will be decisive.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France, citing his great takedown defense, survivability, and patience on the feet. He notes that Kara-France doesn't get hit clean often and has a good chin. He believes Albazi will struggle to get takedowns or finishes, and that Kara-France's experience in five-round fights (interim title fight with Moreno) will be an advantage. He predicts Kara-France will take over as the fight goes on and possibly get a fourth-round TKO.
Zane picks Kai Kara-France because he is the more proven fighter and has shown improved defensive wrestling and pace-pushing. He questions how Albazi will handle being pressured, as his last time on the back foot against Jose Torres his game dissolved. Zane also notes that Kara-France is harder to wrestle now and that Albazi's takedowns, while good, are simpler to stop compared to chain wrestlers like Askarov.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 2 | 37 of 81 | 45% | 62 of 110 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 5:54 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 17 of 71 | 23% | 38 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 9 of 32 | 28% | 10 of 33 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 11 of 41 | 26% | 13 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Amir Albazi | 1 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 42 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:24 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Amir Albazi | 1 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 5 of 21 | 23% | 6 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 37 of 81 | 45% | 23 of 67 | 10 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 23 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 |
| Alessandro Costa | 17 of 71 | 23% | 6 of 55 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 9 of 32 | 28% | 5 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alessandro Costa | 11 of 41 | 26% | 3 of 31 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amir Albazi | 18 of 29 | 62% | 12 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 20 |
| Alessandro Costa | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amir Albazi | 10 of 20 | 50% | 6 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Alessandro Costa | 5 of 21 | 23% | 2 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Albazi (-425), Costa (+350)
Round 1
A few weeks ago, rising flyweight Albazi (15-1, 3-0 UFC) expected to take on Brandon Royval in a crucial matchup in the division looking to sort out contenders. Instead, he now greets UFC newcomer Costa (12-2, 0-0 UFC), who made his way to the UFC not for winning on his appearance on this year’s Contender Series but for laying waste to an opponent in 12 seconds in October. Costa may be less renowned than “Raw Dawg” but he is still dangerous. Referee Keith Peterson is prepped and ready for what should be a fast-paced, no-nonsense tilt. The 125ers do not feeling like touching gloves, and instead want to throw leather. Albazi sticks out a few jabs at a range, and Costa replies with one, but neither man finds their range. Albazi feints and fakes by stomping the floor before turning his shoulders to pretend he is throwing, and Costa stomps the floor as well as they try to trigger the other. Costa scores a hard low kick, and Albazi strides forward to double up on his jab. Costa uses his front foot to stomp the mat to fake his blows, and Albazi is not biting. “The Prince” splits the guard with a jab, and Costa fires a single punch back to get some respect. The Brazilian winds up on two power punches, reaching his target at the end of one. Albazi ducks down, takes a punch on the chin, and ducks even lower to pursue a takedown. Costa stops it from succeeding, so Albazi adjusts his effort and hunts for a single to lift his man up. “Nono” says no to the takedown, escaping before it succeeds, and they return to striking range. Costa gets off a one-two as they continue to measure one another from afar, not committing on much and still looking to reach. Albazi shoots in for a double, and he bails on it when Costa stuffs him. Costa tries and fails to make him pay with a one-two, and the jittery Albazi escapes without concern. Albazi springs away from a looping left hand, and he scores a few jabs and follows one with a slapping leg kick. Costa jabs him back, and he comes up short on a one-two. Costa does land on a subsequent one-two, and he jumps at his man with a knee as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 2
The second round begins with more of the same, as Costa measures with rangy strikes. Once Costa connects with a left, he chains it into a pair of one-twos. Albazi whips a kick to the side, and he charges in with a fierce right hand that removes Costa’s balance completely. Costa collapses to the mat, and “The Prince” leaps on top in an effort to land ground strikes. Costa ties him up and largely shuts that down, with a tight guard and some short offense including a few elbows off his back. Albazi gains a little space to land a couple short punches, working the body and going up to the head as he methodically and strategically connects. Costa grabs both of his foe’s wrists and freezes Albazi, with submission possibilities and a tight grip stopping Albazi from getting off offense. The Brazilian suddenly releases them to hammer Albazi’s dome with sharp elbows. Albazi postures up every so often to land a power strike, while Costa stays busy from beneath. Albazi sits up and slams down a number of long punches, getting full extension and bouncing Costa’s head off the mat. Albazi stands up and starts drilling the midsection with standing-to-ground blows, and he evades the potential triangle setup by pushing the legs aside and smacking Costa with arcing hammerfists. Albazi gets off a few more hammerfists before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Albazi
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Albazi
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Albazi
Round 3
The flyweights meet in the middle to start off the last round, and Albazi begins with a step-in front kick right to the sternum. Costa tries to wing punches back at him, and he does manage to land a few to the body, but Albazi largely ushers him to the side as he evades the brunt of them. Albazi connects with another push kick up the middle, and he times an advancing Costa by countering with a double that puts Costa flat on his back. The Brazilian closes up his guard as Albazi stays tightly pressed on his opponent, delivering sporadic ground-and-pound. In a lull in the action, Costa kicks off and explodes back to his feet. “The Prince” swings with an overhand right that connects behind the head, and Costa resets.
Albazi lunges forward to loose a blistering uppercut, and Costa’s legs give way beneath him as he is in big trouble. Albazi pounces not to secure top position, but to finish the job. Battering Costa with brutal ground strikes, he only needs a few for Peterson to end any possible nonsense and call a halt to this fight as Costa appears to have gone out.
Albazi made the most of a rough situation, taking on a tough but unheralded opponent as other foes had withdrawn from facing him.
The Official Result
Amir Albazi def. Alessandro Costa R3 2:13 via KO (Punches)
Angelo loves Albazi here, expecting him to point strike and work in takedowns for a clear win, potentially a stoppage. He notes Albazi is better everywhere except raw power. He thinks Albazi is good for parlays and expects a dominant performance.
Big Brady picks Albazi, calling him the real deal and a level above Costa. He notes Costa is a good fighter with power and BJJ, but Albazi was scheduled to fight top contenders. He sees no path for Costa to win—not by KO, decision, or submission. He predicts Albazi wins a 30-27 decision.
Cody picks Albazi, emphasizing his superior grappling and submission skills. He notes Albazi's striking is solid and he has good durability. He thinks Costa is in a tough spot on short notice and Albazi will take him down and strangle him. He is not confident in a prop but will play Albazi high.
The host bet the over 1.5 rounds, not a moneyline pick. He thinks Costa is better than Albazi's recent opponents and that the fight will be competitive for at least a round and a half. He even considers an Albazi decision at +225. No clear winner pick.
Paul picks Albazi, noting he has been a freight train, taking guys down and choking them out. He questions Costa's grappling level and thinks Albazi's submission skills are on another level. He mentions Albazi's striking looks good and he is agile. He considers inside the distance props.
The MMA Guru picks Amir Albazi over Alessandro Costa, citing Albazi's dominant performances in the flyweight division, including submissions over Francisco Figueiredo and Malcolm Gordon. He notes Costa is good but is stepping up on short notice, which is too much of an ask. He expects Albazi to find a submission, as he has been training for top opponents like Alex Perez and Brandon Royval.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 23 of 29 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Francisco Figueiredo | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 23 of 29 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Francisco Figueiredo | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 12 of 18 | 66% | 10 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
| Francisco Figueiredo | 11 of 15 | 73% | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 12 of 18 | 66% | 10 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
| Francisco Figueiredo | 11 of 15 | 73% | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Amir Albazi over Francisco Figueiredo. He describes Albazi as a legit prospect with solid grappling, striking, and high pace, who is light on his toes and can quickly snatch a leg for takedowns. He notes that Figueiredo is about 75% of his brother's ability, but is better at wrestling and grappling. Angelo believes Albazi has the edge in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects a one-sided decision. The only concern is Albazi's year-and-a-half layoff, which prevents Angelo from making him a parlay piece.
Big Brady is confident in Amir Albazi. He criticizes Francisco Figueiredo's low volume (1.92 significant strikes per minute), lack of power, and poor cardio, noting he lost rounds to Malcolm Gordon and Jerome Rivera. Albazi is well-rounded, has better volume, power, cardio, and grappling. Brady expects Albazi to win by decision, though he mentions a late finish is possible. He sees Albazi having the advantage everywhere.
Cody picks Albazi, emphasizing his fluid striking and grappling. He notes Figueiredo's cardio problems and lack of power. He thinks Albazi is on a different level and should win comfortably.
Daniel Levi leans toward Amir Albazi but is not confident enough to bet at -500. He thinks Albazi is a fantastic prospect but notes that he has been out for over a year and that Francisco Figueiredo is not as bad as the line suggests. Levi points out that Figueiredo made a bad decision in the Malcolm Gordon fight (dropping back for a leg lock from full mount) but has talent. He expects the fight to be competitive early, with Albazi pulling away later, but says it's a dog-or-pass situation.
Albazi is a promising flyweight prospect with strong wrestling and improving hands. He should dominate Figueiredo, who is low-level and only wins by early knockout. Albazi's grappling and durability will be too much; he can win by decision or finish. The host includes Albazi in a four-leg parlay.
Paul picks Albazi, citing his superior striking and grappling. He notes Figueiredo's cardio issues and lack of power. He thinks Albazi is the better fighter everywhere and should win, but the -500 line offers little value.
The Guru predicts Amir Albazi wins by second-round submission via rear-naked choke. He describes Albazi landing jabs and shots over the top, while Figueiredo is defensively irresponsible. He sees Albazi taking Figueiredo down, taking the back, and locking in a standing rear-naked choke in round two.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 68 of 169 | 40% | 94 of 200 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 59 of 132 | 44% | 74 of 150 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 14 of 58 | 24% | 25 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 29 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 31 of 69 | 44% | 32 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 25 of 56 | 44% | 25 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 37 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 20 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 68 of 169 | 40% | 40 of 128 | 15 of 24 | 13 of 17 | 64 of 163 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 59 of 132 | 44% | 22 of 84 | 31 of 41 | 6 of 7 | 58 of 128 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 14 of 58 | 24% | 6 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 23 of 39 | 58% | 9 of 24 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | |
| 2 | Amir Albazi | 31 of 69 | 44% | 19 of 51 | 5 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 30 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 25 of 56 | 44% | 9 of 34 | 13 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amir Albazi | 23 of 42 | 54% | 15 of 32 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 11 of 37 | 29% | 4 of 26 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Amir Albazi as an underdog, citing his decent striking and good ground game. He notes Albazi submitted Malcolm Gordon in his UFC debut. He expects a close fight and thinks Albazi will edge it out with takedowns. He is hesitant because Zhumagulov's fights are often close and he could have won his last fight.
Daniel Levi picks Amir Albazi, citing his aggression and forward pressure. He notes Zhumagulov gets bullied and has questionable wins. Levi believes Albazi is the more talented fighter and will win by being more aggressive, though he acknowledges it could be a toss-up.
Albazi is the younger, improving fighter with a strong grappling game. He has shown he can get the fight to the ground and has good jiu-jitsu, as seen in his submission win over Malcolm Gordon. Zhumagulov is primarily a striker who doesn't have great takedown defense and tends to lose early rounds. In a three-round fight, Albazi only needs to win the first two rounds by securing takedowns and controlling top position. I expect Albazi to win via decision.
The MMA Guru picks Amir Albazi to win by submission in the first round, but later also mentions a close decision. He notes Albazi is younger, stronger, and more explosive, while Zhumagulov is slowing down. He references Albazi's impressive UFC debut submission and his grappling skills. He believes Zhumagulov's grinding style is not respected by judges, and Albazi's power and takedowns will be key. He also mentions betting on Albazi as an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:22 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 28 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:22 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 28 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 3 of 16 | 18% | 1 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 12 of 28 | 42% | 8 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 3 of 16 | 18% | 1 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 12 of 28 | 42% | 8 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Big Brady is confident in Gordon as an underdog, believing he is better everywhere: striking (harder hits, improved technique) and grappling (BJJ black belt, excellent scrambles). He thinks Gordon's 83% finish rate and hunger make him a live dog, and predicts a second-round submission. He notes Gordon's three KO losses but doesn't think Albazi has the power to exploit that.
Daniel Levi picks Amir Albazi, noting that he has been solid and his only losses are to top flyweights outside the UFC. He mentions that Gordon has a questionable chin but can scramble. He expects an exciting fight but leans toward the Swede.
The MMA Guru initially picks Albazi but then reverses, picking Gordon. He notes Gordon has a better record, more experience, and has beaten decent guys outside the UFC. He predicts Gordon gets a TKO finish.
Kai Kara-France - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 42 of 76 | 55% | 70 of 107 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 7:20 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 57 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 29 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:45 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 29 of 51 | 56% | 34 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 22 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 7 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 21 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 42 of 76 | 55% | 28 of 61 | 10 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 40 of 74 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Kai Kara-France | 38 of 67 | 56% | 26 of 53 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 7 of 13 | 53% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Kai Kara-France | 8 of 13 | 61% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Alexandre Pantoja | 29 of 51 | 56% | 19 of 40 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 29 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 22 of 42 | 52% | 11 of 30 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexandre Pantoja | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 8 of 12 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Alexandre Pantoja because he believes Pantoja's grappling and bullying style will be too much for Kai Kara-France, who is smaller and primarily a boxer. He notes that Pantoja is durable, gritty, and will drag Kara-France to the ground, and that the -260 odds are a gift. He dismisses their first fight on TUF as irrelevant and thinks Pantoja's path to victory is clear.
Big Brady is very confident in Pantoja, noting that Kara-France has a tendency to give up his back, as seen in fights against Albazi, Askarov, and Royval. He believes Pantoja's relentless takedown pressure and elite grappling will lead to a submission once he takes Kara-France's back. Brady also notes Kara-France's power but doubts he can knock out Pantoja, who has never been knocked out. He picks Pantoja by third-round submission.
Connor believes Pantoja is the clear champion in the division and that Kara-France lacks the structure to win rounds at an elite level. He notes that Kara-France struggles when he can't get a knockout, and Pantoja is extremely durable and determined. He also highlights Pantoja's wrestling and grappling as key advantages, especially given Kara-France's tendency to give up his back in scrambles. Connor expects Pantoja to win, possibly by finish.
The host sees this as a great matchup for Pantoja to showcase his grappling dominance, predicting he will find a dominant position and submission within two and a half rounds, forcing the tap from Kara-France.
The host picks Alexandre Pantoja, arguing that Kara-France's finishing potential is reduced when he has to defend takedowns. He notes that Pantoja's stand-up has improved and that his pressure and kicks will be key. He expects a close competitive decision, 48-47 or 49-46 for Pantoja.
Zane agrees that Pantoja is the pick. He notes that Kara-France's game is built around moments of shocking offense, but when he can't produce those, he loses rounds. Pantoja is durable and will walk into exchanges, and his wrestling will be a problem for Kara-France. Zane also points out that Kara-France struggled against Brandon Moreno, who used range to neutralize him, and Pantoja is even more aggressive. He expects Pantoja to win, possibly by finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 2 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 2 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 18 of 51 | 35% | 11 of 35 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 |
| Steve Erceg | 9 of 29 | 31% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 18 of 51 | 35% | 11 of 35 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 |
| Steve Erceg | 9 of 29 | 31% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Erceg (-166), Kara-France (+140)
Round 1
The lone all-Oceania battle comes in the co-main event, with New Zealand’s Kara-France (24-11, 1 NC; 7-4 UFC) aiming to snap his first losing streak in nearly a decade at the expense of former undisputed title challenger and Western Australia native Erceg (12-2, 3-1 UFC). Even with both men coming up short in past championship opportunities, a win tonight and maybe one more may propel the victor into contention once more. Referee Rich Mitchell will be the first to know who that is, and he sits back as the fighters come together to clap hands. Erceg shifts directly to the center of the cage, and they both are prepared for the other’s leg kick as they anticipatorily lift their lead legs when squaring up. Kara-France lunges forward after 45 seconds elapse with three looping hooks, and Erceg dances away from them all and pokes out a jab. Erceg jabs again, prompting Kara-France to do the same to the midsection. Erceg ducks just in time to dodge a looping right hand, and Kara-France is out of the way before he can get countered. Erceg jabs his way forward, and Kara-France sticks him to the ribs. Kara-France kicks the front leg and attacks the body, and Erceg kicks him back. Erceg keeps Kara-France at the end his punches, and Kara-France still manages to reach him with winging strikes. Erceg rolls with them just in time, and his own jab reddens the nose of the City Kickboxing product. Erceg puts an uppercut on the guard, bouncing Kara-France back to the fence. Kara-France unleashes a big right hand, and Erceg fires back fearlessly. “Don’t Blink” thumps the front leg and aims a jab to the body, and he strafes to the side but is still met with a jab. Kara-France winds up with a massive left hand, sending Erceg flying. The back of Erceg’s head clatters off the mat, possibly reactivating him after a flash knockout. Kara-France aims and misses two standing-to-ground punches before Erceg dives after his leg, and Erceg uses the close range to explode back to his feet. Kara-France is on him loaded for bear, firing off a huge right hand that forces Erceg to retreat as fast as he can. Kara-France connects with a massive right hook on the temple, and Erceg shifts to the side to dodge. Unfortunately for “Astro Boy,” he circles right into the power right hand of the Kiwi. Kara-France detonates a bomb of a right hand on Erceg’s dome, sending him down in a heap. Two punctuating punches to the side finish the job as Mitchell races in to rescue Erceg from further harm. Kara-France has done it, springing the sizeable upset and becoming the first fighter to knock out the durable youngster. Erceg does not protest the stoppage when he gets back to his feet while in Mitchell’s protective embrace, instead showing disappointment in himself for getting caught like this. Meanwhile, Kara-France jumps to the top of the fence and celebrates his handiwork with the elated audience.
The Official Result
Kai Kara-France def. Steve Erceg R1 4:04 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Steve Erceg because of his size advantage and grappling, believing he can use his size to lean on Kai Kara-France and get the fight to the ground. He notes that Kara-France has great takedown defense but is tiny, and Erceg is big for the division. He considers it a close fight and suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Kara-France might be good.
Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by third-round submission. He favors Erceg due to durability (never knocked out or submitted) and grappling upside (BJJ black belt). He notes Kara-France has been finished six times and is hittable. He believes Erceg can hurt Kara-France on the feet and then submit him. He acknowledges the striking could be competitive but thinks Erceg has more paths to victory, including the younger age and grappling advantage.
Cody sees Erceg as the bigger, more durable fighter with better takedown defense and a higher ceiling after nearly beating Pantoja. He notes Kara-France is on a two-fight losing streak, has been knocked down multiple times, and lacks power against top competition. Cody also mentions Erceg's hometown advantage in Perth.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kai Kara-France via split decision, arguing that Erceg is overrated off his title shot and that Kara-France has the defensive grappling and striking to make it close. He notes that Kara-France has been training hard and won the bleep test at his gym, and that the line movement toward Kara-France suggests sharp action. Vreeland acknowledges the risk of Kara-France's layoff and concussion narrative but believes the fight is a dog-or-pass situation.
Vreeland picks Erceg, calling him the better all-around fighter. He notes Kara-France is good at stuffing takedowns but Erceg's striking power (brutal KO) will make him hesitant. He also highlights Erceg's ground game shown against Pantoja, suggesting a possible submission. He envisions a 'tag and bag' scenario similar to Kara-France's loss to Brandon Royval.
Fox agrees with Erceg for the same reasons: more well-rounded and dangerous everywhere. He emphasizes Erceg's ability to hurt Kara-France on the feet and potentially submit him. He notes Kara-France has been submitted before after being stunned.
The host is confident in Erceg, citing his technical striking, height advantage, and defensive grappling. He expects Erceg to land straight shots and counter Kara-France's power shots. He also notes Erceg's submission threat. He believes Erceg is the more complete fighter and will win by decision or submission.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Erceg's performance against Pantoja as a revelation that he belongs at the top. He notes Kara-France's takedowns won't be effective because Erceg gets back up easily, and that Erceg's size and durability will be key. Paul also points out the travel advantage for Erceg fighting in Perth.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg over Kai Kara-France. He praises Erceg's activity, technical striking, and game planning, noting he is taller and good at picking shots against shorter opponents. He criticizes Kara-France for being one-dimensional, always stepping in with the same overhand. He acknowledges Kara-France's takedown defense but believes Erceg will win a decision, possibly dropping Kara-France. He mentions Kara-France's long layoffs and losses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 99 of 283 | 34% | 133 of 323 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 43 of 145 | 29% | 64 of 173 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 6:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 13 of 40 | 32% | 20 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 6 of 23 | 26% | 12 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 2 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 16 of 55 | 29% | 17 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 12 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 3 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 30 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 15 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:36 | |
| 4 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 27 of 65 | 41% | 29 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 5 of 29 | 17% | 7 of 31 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 5 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 34 of 104 | 32% | 37 of 109 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 18 of 47 | 38% | 18 of 47 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 99 of 283 | 34% | 57 of 224 | 20 of 30 | 22 of 29 | 90 of 267 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 14 |
| Kai Kara-France | 43 of 145 | 29% | 31 of 125 | 6 of 13 | 6 of 7 | 39 of 135 | 1 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 13 of 40 | 32% | 7 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 6 of 23 | 26% | 2 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amir Albazi | 16 of 55 | 29% | 10 of 43 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 7 | 16 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 11 of 37 | 29% | 8 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amir Albazi | 9 of 19 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 |
| Kai Kara-France | 3 of 9 | 33% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | |
| 4 | Amir Albazi | 27 of 65 | 41% | 12 of 46 | 7 of 10 | 8 of 9 | 26 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 5 of 29 | 17% | 2 of 22 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Amir Albazi | 34 of 104 | 32% | 20 of 86 | 10 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 34 of 104 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 18 of 47 | 38% | 16 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo has a slight lean to Kara-France due to his takedown defense (86%) and UFC experience. He thinks Albazi is unproven against top competition. However, he acknowledges Kara-France may be overrated and could get overconfident. He is not betting this fight.
Cody agrees with Paul, stating it's hard to back Albazi because he hasn't faced elite competition. He highlights Kara-France's performance against Moreno, where he caused problems early. Cody notes the small cage could help Albazi but believes Kara-France's footwork and speed are clear advantages. He concludes that in a pick 'em fight, Kara-France is the value side.
Connor picks Kai Kara-France, emphasizing that Kara-France is the best counter-puncher Albazi has faced and that Albazi's pressure style may hit its ceiling. He notes that if Kara-France pressures, Albazi's game dissolves, as seen against Torres. Connor also highlights that Kara-France has improved his ability to push a pace and has better defensive wrestling, though he acknowledges Albazi's grappling danger if Kara-France makes mistakes.
Daniel argues that while Kai Kara-France has fought better competition, he has lost to all those top guys, whereas Albazi has handled everyone put in front of him. He believes Albazi's grappling upside and serviceable striking will be enough, and that Kara-France tends to fade in later rounds when pressured. He sees this as a chance for Albazi to rise to the occasion and win his first UFC main event.
Jacob picks Albazi, believing Kara-France will get overconfident in his striking and get caught. He thinks Albazi's jab and power will wear on Kara-France, leading to a takedown or knockout. Jacob notes Kara-France has a history of getting hit when he's too aggressive. He is confident Albazi wins.
Kara-France has improved defensive grappling and superior striking. Albazi will struggle to implement his grapple-heavy approach. Kara-France will stuff takedowns, land damaging blows, and win a decision. The fight likely goes over 3.5 rounds.
Paul picks Kai Kara-France based on his elite level competition and proven ability against top flyweights like Moreno and Garbrandt. He notes Albazi's wins are against lower-tier opponents and his last fight showed low output and takedown struggles. Paul sees Kara-France as the more reliable pick with better experience and accuracy, while Albazi is more of a hope. He mentions the small cage might help Albazi but believes Kara-France's footwork and speed will be decisive.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France, citing his great takedown defense, survivability, and patience on the feet. He notes that Kara-France doesn't get hit clean often and has a good chin. He believes Albazi will struggle to get takedowns or finishes, and that Kara-France's experience in five-round fights (interim title fight with Moreno) will be an advantage. He predicts Kara-France will take over as the fight goes on and possibly get a fourth-round TKO.
Zane picks Kai Kara-France because he is the more proven fighter and has shown improved defensive wrestling and pace-pushing. He questions how Albazi will handle being pressured, as his last time on the back foot against Jose Torres his game dissolved. Zane also notes that Kara-France is harder to wrestle now and that Albazi's takedowns, while good, are simpler to stop compared to chain wrestlers like Askarov.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 1 | 58 of 151 | 38% | 59 of 153 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 53 of 110 | 48% | 66 of 123 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 7 of 26 | 26% | 7 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 16 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 23 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 1 | 35 of 76 | 46% | 36 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 28 of 51 | 54% | 33 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 58 of 151 | 38% | 43 of 133 | 12 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 47 of 132 | 0 of 3 | 11 of 16 |
| Kai Kara-France | 53 of 110 | 48% | 24 of 71 | 3 of 4 | 26 of 35 | 48 of 104 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 7 of 26 | 26% | 5 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 10 of 23 | 43% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 16 of 49 | 32% | 10 of 40 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 46 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 15 of 36 | 41% | 6 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 13 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 35 of 76 | 46% | 28 of 69 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 16 |
| Kai Kara-France | 28 of 51 | 54% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 12 | 23 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
Big Brady picks Kai Kara-France to win by decision as a dog. He thinks the line is too wide and favors Kara-France's striking volume, accuracy, and takedown defense. He notes Moreno has been dropped before and Kara-France has power. He expects a close fight that could go either way but leans toward the underdog.
Cody picks Moreno, citing his durability, fantastic cardio, and proven five-round ability. He notes that Kai Kara-France relies on power and early success, but Moreno can take his best shots and keep coming. He expects Moreno's volume, wrestling, and championship-round experience to be key advantages. He also mentions that Moreno has a grappling advantage and that Kai's takedown defense is solid but Moreno can mix in wrestling. He thinks the fight will be competitive early but Moreno will take over.
Daniel leans Moreno because he believes Moreno's Mexican heart and toughness will carry him down the stretch, especially in deep waters. He notes that Moreno already beat Kara-France once via decision and that Kara-France has historically faded when fights get tough. He acknowledges Kara-France's improvements, especially his takedown defense against Askar Askarov, and his one-punch knockout power. However, he questions Moreno's motivation after losing the belt and changing camps. He sees value on Kara-France at +170 but ultimately picks Moreno to become interim champion.
Preet made Moreno his biggest play of the night with five units at -187, believing Moreno is on another level. He argues the first fight was not close after round one, with Moreno beating Kara-France to the punch and flexing on him. He expects Moreno to edge a five-round kickboxing match, with potential grappling success. He dismisses Kara-France's takedown defense improvements as irrelevant.
Paul also picks Moreno, agreeing that it's a bad matchup for Kai Kara-France. He notes that Kai relies on power and early success, but Moreno is incredibly durable with fantastic cardio. He thinks Moreno has an advantage on the mat and that Kai's takedown defense is solid but Moreno can get it there. He mentions that the -210 price is not great but the fight is likely to be competitive and go five rounds. He suggests live betting after the first round if Kai has early success.
The MMA Guru picks Brandon Moreno by 48-47 decision. He expects Kara-France to win the first two rounds with big shots and leg kicks, but Moreno will take over in rounds three through five with his jab, combinations, and pressure. Moreno's durability and volume will be key as Kara-France fades.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 27 of 60 | 45% | 37 of 76 | 2 of 14 | 14% | 2 | 0 | 5:14 |
| Askar Askarov | 0 | 51 of 130 | 39% | 64 of 145 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 13 of 20 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 3:09 |
| Askar Askarov | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kai Kara-France | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Askar Askarov | 0 | 24 of 65 | 36% | 26 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kai Kara-France | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Askar Askarov | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 27 of 60 | 45% | 25 of 55 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 57 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Askar Askarov | 51 of 130 | 39% | 26 of 96 | 10 of 18 | 15 of 16 | 46 of 125 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Askar Askarov | 4 of 10 | 40% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kai Kara-France | 12 of 28 | 42% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Askar Askarov | 24 of 65 | 36% | 16 of 55 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 62 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Kai Kara-France | 12 of 28 | 42% | 11 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Askar Askarov | 23 of 55 | 41% | 9 of 36 | 5 of 9 | 9 of 10 | 21 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Askar Askarov, calling him a beast with Dagestani wrestling and submissions. He thinks Askarov's relentless grappling and willingness to strike will be too much for Kai Kara-France. He predicts a close but clear decision, likely 29-28. He also mentions a prop bet on Kara-France plus 3.5 points.
Big Brady picks Askar Askarov to grind out a decision win. He highlights Askarov's relentless wrestling and grappling, noting that he took down Joseph Benavidez five times and controlled him, and also took down Brandon Moreno and Pantoja. He acknowledges that Kai Kara-France has power and knocked out Cody Garbrandt, but believes Askarov will mix in takedowns and not give France many opportunities to strike. He expects a close decision.
Cody picks Askarov but is wary of the line. He notes Askarov's close fights against top competition and Kara-France's recent KO wins over faded opponents. He thinks Askarov's wrestling and durability will be factors, but Kara-France's power is a threat. He expects a competitive fight with Askarov winning.
Daniel Levi picks Askar Askarov, citing his elite wrestling and control. He notes Askarov's wins over top competition (Moreno, Pantoja, Benavidez) and his ability to grind out decisions. He acknowledges Kara-France has KO power and could land a lucky shot, but believes Askarov's grappling will be the difference. He thinks the line at -350 is fair but not a betting opportunity.
Paul picks Askarov but is concerned about the price. He notes Askarov's fights are often competitive and he's been in close decisions. He thinks Askarov's wrestling and striking mix will be key, but Kara-France has power and could test his chin. He expects Askarov to win but not easily.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France by KO over Askar Askarov, praising Kara-France's takedown defense and jiu-jitsu defense. He notes that Askarov has struggled to ground elite grapplers like Moreno and Pantoja, and believes Kara-France's momentum and striking will be the difference. The Guru predicts Askarov will leave his chin open after failed takedowns, leading to a KO win for Kara-France as an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 2 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 2 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 23 of 41 | 56% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 9 of 17 | 52% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 23 of 41 | 56% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 9 of 17 | 52% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Cody Garbrandt by knockout, but with very low confidence. He notes that Garbrandt has fought better competition and is the harder hitter, but there are many red flags: Garbrandt is moving down in weight, has durability concerns, and has been knocked out before. Kara-France has good takedown defense and volume, but his chin is questionable. Brady cannot bet this fight due to the uncertainty.
Daniel Levi picks Kai Kara-France for the upset, expressing concerns about Cody Garbrandt's drop to flyweight. He references historical examples like TJ Dillashaw and Figueiredo struggling with the weight cut, and worries about Garbrandt's durability losing 10 pounds. Levi acknowledges Garbrandt's superior competition but believes the speed and output at flyweight will favor Kara-France. He notes Kara-France's one-punch knockout power and training at a great camp. Levi is skeptical about Garbrandt's desperation move to flyweight.
Garbrandt is the much better technical striker and should be able to counter Kara-France's blitzes. However, his durability is a concern, especially at a new weight class. If he stays disciplined and uses footwork, he can win a decision. The weight cut and chin are question marks, so this is a watch-and-see fight.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France to win by first-round KO, calling it an upset. He believes Garbrandt's weight cut to flyweight will be detrimental, and his defensive flaws will be exposed. He notes Kara-France's reach advantage and power, predicting he will catch Garbrandt early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 27 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:15 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 1 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 21 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 27 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:15 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 1 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 21 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 6 of 17 | 35% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 13 of 22 | 59% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 6 of 17 | 35% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 13 of 22 | 59% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Kai Kara-France, citing his striking advantage and ability to scramble if taken down. He notes Bontorin's striking is underwhelming and that Kara-France's 90% takedown defense is backed by good scrambling. He predicts a decision win but mentions he would bet Kara-France if he gets plus money.
Daniel picks Rogério Bontorin to win a decision, citing his toughness, wrestling, and ability to mix in takedowns. He dismisses Bontorin's loss to Ray Borg due to weight miss and elevation, and believes Bontorin is the better grappler and will break Kara-France down the stretch.
Kara-France has speed and better stand-up, with decent takedown defense. Bontorin slows down in later rounds. The host thinks Kara-France will win by decision, but is not highly confident due to Kara-France's past losses to chaotic fighters.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France to win by first-round TKO. He highlights Kara-France's 90% takedown defense and reach advantage, and believes Bontorin will get frustrated and rush in, getting caught. He notes Bontorin slows down and has been cut before.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 1 | 22 of 38 | 57% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Kai Kara-France | 2 | 39 of 71 | 54% | 51 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 1 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Kai Kara-France | 2 | 31 of 56 | 55% | 43 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 9 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 22 of 38 | 57% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 39 of 71 | 54% | 27 of 56 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 34 of 64 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 13 of 28 | 46% | 6 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 31 of 56 | 55% | 23 of 46 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 26 of 49 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 9 of 10 | 90% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 8 of 15 | 53% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks the underdog Royval, impressed by his ground game and finishing ability. He thinks Royval will get the fight to the mat at some point and have a big advantage there. He also notes Royval's striking is decent and he has a reach advantage.
Daniel Levi picks Brandon Royval as a dog, calling it a dog-or-pass situation. He believes Kai Kara-France is overrated, with questionable wins and a tendency to duck his head before exchanges, which Royval can exploit with flying knees. He praises Royval's heart, submission ability, and pressure, though he notes Royval's takedown defense is poor.
The host picks Brandon Royval as a live underdog, comparing him to Tony Ferguson for his unorthodox pressure and scrambling ability. He believes Royval's chaos and jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Kai Kara-France, who he feels is overrated due to his City Kickboxing affiliation. He predicts a second or third-round submission.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France, citing his great grappling defense, improvement, and experience against tough competition. He thinks Kara-France will chop at the legs, work the body, and win a unanimous decision. He notes Royval's win over Tim Elliott was good but Kara-France is a different level.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo has a slight lean to Kara-France due to his takedown defense (86%) and UFC experience. He thinks Albazi is unproven against top competition. However, he acknowledges Kara-France may be overrated and could get overconfident. He is not betting this fight.
Cody agrees with Paul, stating it's hard to back Albazi because he hasn't faced elite competition. He highlights Kara-France's performance against Moreno, where he caused problems early. Cody notes the small cage could help Albazi but believes Kara-France's footwork and speed are clear advantages. He concludes that in a pick 'em fight, Kara-France is the value side.
Connor picks Kai Kara-France, emphasizing that Kara-France is the best counter-puncher Albazi has faced and that Albazi's pressure style may hit its ceiling. He notes that if Kara-France pressures, Albazi's game dissolves, as seen against Torres. Connor also highlights that Kara-France has improved his ability to push a pace and has better defensive wrestling, though he acknowledges Albazi's grappling danger if Kara-France makes mistakes.
Daniel argues that while Kai Kara-France has fought better competition, he has lost to all those top guys, whereas Albazi has handled everyone put in front of him. He believes Albazi's grappling upside and serviceable striking will be enough, and that Kara-France tends to fade in later rounds when pressured. He sees this as a chance for Albazi to rise to the occasion and win his first UFC main event.
Jacob picks Albazi, believing Kara-France will get overconfident in his striking and get caught. He thinks Albazi's jab and power will wear on Kara-France, leading to a takedown or knockout. Jacob notes Kara-France has a history of getting hit when he's too aggressive. He is confident Albazi wins.
Kara-France has improved defensive grappling and superior striking. Albazi will struggle to implement his grapple-heavy approach. Kara-France will stuff takedowns, land damaging blows, and win a decision. The fight likely goes over 3.5 rounds.
Paul picks Kai Kara-France based on his elite level competition and proven ability against top flyweights like Moreno and Garbrandt. He notes Albazi's wins are against lower-tier opponents and his last fight showed low output and takedown struggles. Paul sees Kara-France as the more reliable pick with better experience and accuracy, while Albazi is more of a hope. He mentions the small cage might help Albazi but believes Kara-France's footwork and speed will be decisive.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France, citing his great takedown defense, survivability, and patience on the feet. He notes that Kara-France doesn't get hit clean often and has a good chin. He believes Albazi will struggle to get takedowns or finishes, and that Kara-France's experience in five-round fights (interim title fight with Moreno) will be an advantage. He predicts Kara-France will take over as the fight goes on and possibly get a fourth-round TKO.
Zane picks Kai Kara-France because he is the more proven fighter and has shown improved defensive wrestling and pace-pushing. He questions how Albazi will handle being pressured, as his last time on the back foot against Jose Torres his game dissolved. Zane also notes that Kara-France is harder to wrestle now and that Albazi's takedowns, while good, are simpler to stop compared to chain wrestlers like Askarov.
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