vs
-435 +380
UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Next Fight
Age 31
Height 6' 1"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 6' 3"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Shavkat Rakhmonov
3.25 SLpM
60.0% Str. Acc.
2.17 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.4 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Neil Magny
3.4 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
2.44 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
2.17 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Moneyline
DraftKings -435
KO/TKO
FanDuel +125
Submission
BetMGM +300
Decision
BetWay +300
Neil Magny
Moneyline
FanDuel +380
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1400
Submission
BetRivers +2800
Decision
FanDuel +550
Shavkat Rakhmonov - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 37 of 67 55% 65 of 102 2 of 10 20% 0 1 11:41
Ian Machado Garry 0 42 of 84 50% 102 of 157 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 2 of 5 40% 13 of 16 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:20
Ian Machado Garry 0 3 of 4 75% 14 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 15 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:31
Ian Machado Garry 0 10 of 24 41% 13 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 11 of 19 57% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
Ian Machado Garry 0 14 of 34 41% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
4 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 14 of 22 63% 19 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:55
Ian Machado Garry 0 11 of 16 68% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
5 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 1 of 3 33% 7 of 12 0 of 3 0% 0 1 2:44
Ian Machado Garry 0 4 of 6 66% 38 of 46 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 37 of 67 55% 29 of 55 6 of 10 2 of 2 24 of 50 3 of 4 10 of 13
Ian Machado Garry 42 of 84 50% 11 of 40 10 of 15 21 of 29 35 of 72 7 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 9 of 16 0 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 10 of 24 41% 2 of 12 2 of 3 6 of 9 8 of 20 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 11 of 19 57% 7 of 14 4 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 14 of 34 41% 4 of 16 3 of 7 7 of 11 14 of 31 0 of 3 0 of 0
4 Shavkat Rakhmonov 14 of 22 63% 11 of 19 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 1 10 of 13
Ian Machado Garry 11 of 16 68% 2 of 6 3 of 3 6 of 7 10 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Shavkat Rakhmonov 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov but is nervous. He notes Shavkat has more ways to win (KO, submission) and is dangerous everywhere, but his takedowns are not great (1 for 5 against Wonderboy) and he hasn't fought meaningful time. Ian Garry accepted this fight on short notice, which suggests he knows something. Angelo is leaning Shavkat but may just watch and enjoy.

Minus 350, might just watch and enjoy
"I'm going to pick shavkat rakman off but I'm a little nervous here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody picks Rakhmonov, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and wins over tough opponents. He notes Rakhmonov's takedown accuracy is low but he finds the neck when needed. He has concerns about Rakhmonov's striking lulls and Garry's potential in a kickboxing match, but still favors Rakhmonov.

"I'm going to take Shavkat to get the job done and hand Ian Garry his first career loss."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Connor believes Shavkat's clinch game and pressure will be decisive. He notes that Shavkat has terrible striking defense but is durable and confident, and that his ability to get into the clinch and break opponents down is reminiscent of Khabib. Connor thinks Garry will have success at range early but will eventually give ground and get caught in clinches, leading to a finish. He also mentions the training partner dynamic, where Shavkat got the better of Garry on the ground.

Shavkat opened at -238, currently -372; Garry opened at +204, currently +304. Connor thinks the line is too wide but still favors Shavkat.
"I am inclined to take Shavkat. Even if I think Gary is going to show up some of his striking."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Daniel believes Rakhmonov's clinch work and physicality will be too much for Garry. He notes Garry's vulnerability after being dropped by Keenan Song and questions his vegan diet's effect on muscle mass. He expects Rakhmonov to close distance methodically and hand Garry his first loss.

"I'm gonna go Shaftcat Rammon up to come out here, hand Ian Gary his first ever loss."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Daniel Vreeland picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, citing that the Michael Venom Page fight showed the ceiling of Ian Garry's striking. He argues that Garry's grappling ace won't work against Rakhmonov, who has superior wrestling and submission skills. Vreeland notes Rakhmonov's striking is good enough to hang with Garry, and his finishing upside is all on his side, especially in a five-round fight where it gets worse for Garry.

"yeah and I'm still going Rockman off uh for me you know you watch that and Gary fight with Mich zenom page and it was like okay there's the ceiling on Machado Gary striking right and and we kind of …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jeff Fox agrees with Rakhmonov, noting that the MVP fight was not encouraging for Garry and that this is a massive step up. He questions Garry's path to victory, suggesting a decision is possible but would mean 15 minutes of danger. Fox points out that the finishing upside is all on Rakhmonov, especially in a five-round fight, making it even worse for Garry.

"no there's no real holes at least he hasn't shown any holes yet uh sha cut hasn't not that Gary is is looked bad but yeah that mvp fight was not encouraging um it's it's a big step up from …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Lucrative James picks Ian Garry as a significant underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight. He believes Garry's slick striking, body work, and BJJ will be enough to outpoint Rakhmonov. He notes Garry's durability is underrated and that the former sparring partner dynamic adds volatility. He trusts Garry's cardio and toughness to persevere.

"I actually think Ian Gary is going to win this fight... I'm picking Ian Gary outright in this one boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Although the line is wide in favor of Rakhmonov, Gary could provide resistance with his technical striking and walk Rakhmonov into some shots. However, the ultimate difference maker will be Rakhmonov's aggressiveness, which will wear down Gary and lead to a finish within rounds three or four.

finish within rounds 3-4
"I do believe the ultimate differen maker is going to be the aggressiveness on Rock manov which event eventually wears down Gary and leads to a finish for rock manov within rounds three or four"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul picks Rakhmonov, emphasizing his finishing ability and superior competition. He criticizes Garry's hype and close fights, noting his takedown defense and cardio concerns. He thinks Rakhmonov's grappling will be the difference, but acknowledges the line is too heavy to bet heavily.

"Rakhmonov is going to take him down... I think Rakhmonov wins this fight wide."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat, but acknowledges Ian Garry's solid chance. He thinks Garry will be winning early, but Shavkat will crack him in the third or fourth round, leading to a momentum shift. He notes Garry is more likely to break (leg, hand, body shot) and that Shavkat's pressure and clinch work will be decisive. He predicts a TKO win against the cage in the late third or fourth round.

Shavkat wins by TKO in round 3 or 4
"I got shavkat but hear me out Ian Gary's got a solid chance here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Zane agrees with Connor, highlighting Shavkat's clinch expertise and Garry's tendency to back up under pressure. He notes that Garry's risk aversion and lack of elite athleticism will be exposed, and that Shavkat's finishing ability will likely lead to a stoppage. Zane also points out that Garry's recent performances have been lackluster and that he struggles when pressured.

"I think Shavkat's going to be champ here very, very soon."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:56 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 28 of 36 77% 73 of 88 1 of 5 20% 2 0 7:45
Stephen Thompson 0 16 of 25 64% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 12 of 20 60% 25 of 34 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:25
Stephen Thompson 0 10 of 14 71% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 16 of 16 100% 48 of 54 1 of 3 33% 2 0 4:20
Stephen Thompson 0 6 of 11 54% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 28 of 36 77% 24 of 31 4 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 8 10 of 15 13 of 13
Stephen Thompson 16 of 25 64% 6 of 15 7 of 7 3 of 3 13 of 22 1 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 12 of 20 60% 9 of 16 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 6 9 of 14 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 10 of 14 71% 3 of 7 4 of 4 3 of 3 9 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 16 of 16 100% 15 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 1 of 1 13 of 13
Stephen Thompson 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling it a 'spite matchup' by the UFC. He believes Shavkat's wrestling and finishing ability will be too much for the 40-year-old Thompson, who has historically lost to heavy grapplers. He includes Shavkat in his 'anti-40 parlay'.

Anti-40 parlay leg; finish expected
"shavkat is going to be the pick... shavkat is in that anti-40 parlay as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by second-round TKO, calling it a stylistic nightmare for Stephen Thompson. He highlights Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate (17 finishes), vicious ground and pound, and submission threat. Brady notes Thompson's poor takedown defense and age (40), contrasting with Rakhmonov's youth and wrestling ability. He expects Rakhmonov to take Thompson down and finish with ground strikes, similar to Belal Muhammad's near-TKO of Thompson.

"give me shovot to win this fight by second round TKO vicious grounded pound TKO incoming"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody picks Rakhmonov but is hesitant due to the -650 price. He notes that Rakhmonov's wrestling was ineffective against Jeff Neal (0 for 4 takedowns) and that Thompson's movement and length could cause problems. However, he believes the takedown threat will be there and that Rakhmonov is younger and improving. He says he has no intention of betting the fight because the line is too high.

"shavkat is the pick I have no intention of betting that fight though"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Daniel Vreeland picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, emphasizing that Thompson is past his prime and no longer has the power or speed to keep Rakhmonov at range. He notes that Rakhmonov is not afraid to close distance and will be better in the clinch, on the ground, and in the pocket. Vreeland doubts that 40-year-old Thompson can fight a gritty fight or survive Rakhmonov's pressure.

"shavkat is the pick here"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jeff Fox picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, stating that Rakhmonov is a killer and Thompson is an old fighter who will take a beating. He notes that Rakhmonov is better everywhere the fight goes. Fox also mentions that Thompson's win over Kevin Holland was cumulative, not a big knockout, and that Thompson's current outfighting style won't work against Rakhmonov.

"rachmanov is our pick here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Lucrative James is confident Shavkat Rakhmonov will finish Stephen Thompson inside the distance. He believes Shavkat's pressure, clinch strikes, and takedowns will be too much for Thompson, who he thinks will get tired and cut up. He notes that Belal Muhammad almost TKO'd Thompson twice on the ground, so he sees a finish by TKO or submission as likely.

Inside the distance finish.
"I think Shavkat is going to run through him... Stephen Thompson's gonna get finished inside the distance."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host sees this as a horrible stylistic matchup for Thompson, as Rakhmonov is a strong grappler who will take Thompson down and finish him. He references how Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad ground out Thompson, and believes Rakhmonov is even more dangerous on top. He expects Rakhmonov to get the takedown easily, secure a dominant position, and get a TKO or submission inside the distance. He advises against betting on Thompson even at plus odds.

Rakhmonov inside the distance
"shavat Rak manov probably more dangerous than those guys when he's able to get them to the ground and I think that will see Rock manov get him to the ground pretty easily here get that dominant position I think …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul picks Rakhmonov, believing the takedowns will be there early and often against Thompson. He acknowledges Thompson's takedown defense has been poor against wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and Kevin Holland. Paul thinks Rakhmonov will find submissions or control, though he admits the Jeff Neal fight exposed some flaws. He still sees Rakhmonov as the pick but agrees the price is too high to bet.

"I think shavkat will have the takedowns I think the time to fade shavkat is coming as he's going to break into this top five"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov over Stephen Thompson, emphasizing Shavkat's size, strength, and clinch game. He notes that Thompson survived against Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, but Shavkat's trips and top pressure will be different. He predicts Shavkat will use an outside trip from the clinch, get to half guard, and finish with an arm triangle.

Shavkat by submission (arm triangle) in round 2
"shavkat rachmanov arm triangle it's sad but that's what I see happening here... I'm going to go with shavkat getting an arm triangle working his way through after getting half Guard from an outside trip up against the cage"
WIN vs Geoff Neal
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:17 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 69 of 145 47% 69 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Geoff Neal 0 113 of 179 63% 120 of 186 0 of 4 0% 1 0 3:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Geoff Neal 0 43 of 64 67% 46 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 20 of 57 35% 20 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Geoff Neal 0 35 of 70 50% 35 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Geoff Neal 0 35 of 45 77% 39 of 49 0 of 2 0% 1 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 69 of 145 47% 63 of 136 4 of 6 2 of 3 57 of 129 12 of 16 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 113 of 179 63% 69 of 130 39 of 44 5 of 5 74 of 131 39 of 48 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 29 of 54 53% 27 of 51 1 of 1 1 of 2 23 of 47 6 of 7 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 43 of 64 67% 26 of 44 17 of 20 0 of 0 32 of 50 11 of 14 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 20 of 57 35% 18 of 53 1 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 35 of 70 50% 20 of 54 13 of 14 2 of 2 25 of 56 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 20 of 34 58% 18 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 15 of 27 5 of 7 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 35 of 45 77% 23 of 32 9 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 25 18 of 20 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling him an absolute savage who can submit, knock out, or outwrestle opponents. He notes that Rakhmonov is on a different level and should get the job done. Angelo thinks -500 is fine for parlays.

"I love shaft cat here I think he's on an entirely different level I think he does what he wants I think he gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, citing his size, power, and submission game. He notes Neal has good takedown defense but was taken down by Neil Magny, and Rakhmonov is a better wrestler. He predicts a second-round submission for Rakhmonov, but acknowledges if the fight stays standing, it gets interesting.

second round submission
"I like shopkop by submission... I'll say second round submission win for shot rockmanov"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is high on Rakhmonov, calling him 'the truth' and praising his well-rounded game, clinch work, and finishing ability. He thinks Neal's power is a threat but that Rakhmonov's grappling and fight IQ will be too much. He expects Rakhmonov to win but is unsure if he finishes Neal.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov; considers inside the distance but not confident
"I think he's the truth and he's extremely well-rounded"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Connor picks Rakhmonov confidently, noting Neal's limited toolkit (left hand, left kick) and inability to adjust. He expects Rakhmonov to use his creativity and clinch work to overwhelm Neal, who will likely run into clinches where Rakhmonov can wrestle and land strikes. He acknowledges Neal's toughness and power but sees the matchup as stylistically poor for Neal.

Mentions Rakhmonov opened at -435, now -528; Neal +350 to +378.
"It's hard not to see Rakhmonov just sort of ending up in a winning position at some point."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jacob is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that his toughest test on paper was Neil Magny, whom he dominated. He believes Rakhmonov is too rangy and skilled for Geoff Neal, who relies on power. Jacob expects a first or second round finish.

first or second round finish
"I think it's a first or second second round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a pressure grappler with a 100% finish rate. Neal is a good striker but has struggled against pressure grapplers. Rakhmonov will take the fight to the ground and submit Neal. The fight doesn't go to decision.

fight doesn't go to decision, Rakhmonov by submission
"fight doesn't go to the decision is going to be my favorite spot for this matchup... I'm still going to end up going with the shot Cat Rock one outside to win this fight via submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul agrees with Cody that Rakhmonov is the truth and expects him to win. He notes Neal's takedown defense is good but thinks Rakhmonov is a different level. He likes the over 1.5 takedowns prop for Rakhmonov.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov (-155)
"I think shop costs the truth won't be backing Neil"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, despite noting the odds are too wide. He questions Neal's recent performances and believes Rakhmonov's wild style and grappling will be too much, though he acknowledges Neal's KO power.

Comments on odds being too wide
"I'm gonna go with shav cat rachmanov... I do not agree that he should be a six to one favorite here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Zane agrees, highlighting Neal's predictability and lack of adaptability. He notes Rakhmonov's willingness to experiment and clinch, and that Neal's straight-line entries will lead to clinches where Rakhmonov can dominate. He sees Neal's only path as an early knockout, but Rakhmonov's size and confidence make that unlikely.

"Neil will also lead himself to the clinch. He's going to get wrestled in the clinch."
WIN vs Neil Magny
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 4:58 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 11 of 22 50% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Neil Magny 0 19 of 36 52% 56 of 79 2 of 2 100% 1 0 9:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 7 of 10 70% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Neil Magny 0 12 of 20 60% 27 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:43
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 4 of 12 33% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Neil Magny 0 7 of 16 43% 29 of 41 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 11 of 22 50% 6 of 16 2 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 6
Neil Magny 19 of 36 52% 17 of 34 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 7 of 10 70% 4 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 5
Neil Magny 12 of 20 60% 11 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 19
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 4 of 12 33% 2 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 1
Neil Magny 7 of 16 43% 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov confidently, noting his 100% finish rate and well-rounded skills. He expects Rakhmonov to have success striking but ultimately lean on his wrestling for the win, similar to how Michael Chiesa took Magny down four times. He believes Magny's recent performances against Max Griffin and Jeff Neal show vulnerability.

"i like shaft cat to have success striking but ultimately lean on his wrestling for the win shove cat rachmanoff is my pick and i'm pretty confident"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round knockout. He is very confident, citing Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate (8 KO, 7 sub), power in hands and kicks, and underrated submission game. He notes Magny's poor chin (dropped often, finished 6 times) and that he was dropped by Max Griffin. He sees Magny's only path as holding Rakhmonov against the cage, but doubts judges will score that. He expects Rakhmonov to hurt and finish Magny early.

Rakhmonov wins by KO in round 1
"i think he hurts magne bad i think he finished him in the very first round and i think he does it by knockout so give me shove rock banav"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is sold on Rakhmonov as a finisher with excellent submission game and power. He notes Magni hasn't been finished in a while but thinks Rakhmonov's precision and finishing ability will get the job done. He recommends Rakhmonov inside the distance at -135.

Rakhmonov inside the distance -135 at DraftKings
"i think if you're gonna play this line rachmaninov 15 wins 15 finishes minus 135 at draftkings sportsbook i think that's the play"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Magni's recent performance against Max Griffin was poor and age may be catching up. He thinks Rakhmonov is precise and fights long, and he leans towards inside the distance by knockout.

"i would lean towards inside the distance by knockout yeah"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that Max Griffin dropped Neil Magny and almost won, and Rakhmonov is much better than Griffin. He believes Rakhmonov will finish Magny in the first round, possibly by submission (d'arce choke). He cites Magny's history of losing to top competition and his inability to outgrapple Rakhmonov.

first round finish prediction, d'arce choke
"i am going to go with chavcat rachmanov over neil magna"
KO (spinning hook kick and punches) R1 4:10 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 1 13 of 28 46% 16 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:52
Carlston Harris 0 10 of 27 37% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 1 13 of 28 46% 16 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:52
Carlston Harris 0 10 of 27 37% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 13 of 28 46% 10 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 20 0 of 0 4 of 8
Carlston Harris 10 of 27 37% 3 of 13 6 of 10 1 of 4 8 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 13 of 28 46% 10 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 20 0 of 0 4 of 8
Carlston Harris 10 of 27 37% 3 of 13 6 of 10 1 of 4 8 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Carlston Harris vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov

Round 1
It’s a welterweight rumble on the docket now between two surging prospects each looking for their third win in as many tries when Rakhmonov (14-0, 2-0 UFC) takes on Harris (17-4, 2-0 UFC). This classic battle of Kazakhstan vs. Guyana will draw the attention of referee Mike Beltran, although the tensions are not high as they show respect with a touch of gloves. The center of the cage immediately belongs to Rakhmonov, who swats away a punch to the body as he slowly advances. Harris kicks the body and swipes out with a left as Rakhmonov comes towards him, and Harris whiffs on a big right hand as well. Harris has a left hand bounce off the cheek, only to walk into a one-two that makes him bend over. Harris fires back with a strike to the body, as he lunges in with a few right hands to the torso. Rakhmonov’s volume is low, as the Kazakh picks his shots from range. Rakhmonov catches a swinging Harris with a right hand, and Harris recklessly attacks and gets kicked hard to the body with a spinning kick. Rakhmonov races ahead, sensing he might have hurt “Mocambique,” and he lands a body shot before Harris grabs hold of him. They dance back and forth in pursuit of takedowns from each man, and Rakhmonov pushes him hard against the fence before lifting Harris in the air. Harris manages to keep his balance as Rakhmonov lifts him up, sets him down and picks him up again to elevate and drop. The Guyana native turns Rakhmonov to the fence, and he starts stomping on toes in an old-school manner. While Harris thwarts one trip attempt, the second succeeds, and Rakhmonov drops his foe right on his head. Harris keeps moving, scrambling well enough to get back to his feet without issue.
In the blink of an eye, Rakhmonov spins with a hook kick to the head, and the heel smashes into the side of Harris’ dome. Harris topples to the mat, and Rakhmonov leaps down to hunt for a finish. Harris throws his legs up to try to keep Rakhmonov off of him, but Rakhmonov tosses them aside and drops down hammers in the form of punches. “Nomad” blasts Harris a couple times with long standing-to-ground punches until Harris’ consciousness is stripped away, and Beltran is quick to notice this and halt the fight.
That’s 15 wins in 15 tries for Rakhmonov, with all 15 ending inside the distance. As he makes the sign to the crowd for dollar bills, he also signals to the UFC that he is a serious contender on the rise at 170 pounds.

The Official Result
Shavkat Rakhmonov def. Carlston Harris R1 4:10 via KO (Spinning Hook Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov but warns the odds are too wide. He notes Rakhmonov is a special prospect with finishes everywhere, but Harris is a gamer with solid grappling and opportunistic submissions. Angelo gives the edge to Rakhmonov for his power and wrestling, but expects a tough fight. He suggests buying a round on the judges' scorecards.

Odds comment: Rakhmonov is a 3-to-1 favorite, but Angelo thinks it's closer. Suggests betting on the fight to go to decision.
"rachmaninov is the pick don't let the odds fool you it's not the lock that they think it is"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is torn but leans Rakhmonov. He loves Rakhmonov's skills and thinks he is a future star. He notes that Harris is a savvy veteran with good grappling and power, and that Rakhmonov had some clinch struggles against Cowboy Oliveira. However, he thinks Rakhmonov's overall game is superior and that he will get the job done.

"i'm backing rack mono but again where have i been getting burned is having too much faith in these guys"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Daniel Levi picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, praising his well-rounded game, durability, and finishing ability. He notes Rakhmonov has beaten solid competition and has a 77-inch reach. Levi believes Carlston Harris may gas in later rounds due to his bouncing movement, while Rakhmonov's cardio and pressure will take over. He respects Harris's awkward power and experience but sees Rakhmonov as a buzzsaw who will outwork him down the stretch.

"the pick is shaft cat but all respect to carlson i enjoy watching him fight too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Lock of the Night favors Rakhmonov, citing his cleaner striking and better gas tank. He notes that Rakhmonov gives up double underhooks easily, which is Harris's strength, but believes Rakhmonov's jiu-jitsu and cardio will allow him to take over later. He expects Rakhmonov to clip Harris and finish via ground and pound or submission. He likes the over 1.5 rounds and Rakhmonov inside the distance.

over 1.5 rounds -140, Rakhmonov inside the distance +100, Rakhmonov in round 3 +1000
"i think shabcat's grappling is legit i think it's good his jiu jitsu is good"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul is high on Rakhmonov, calling him a future title challenger. He notes Rakhmonov's smooth striking, good wrestling, and physical strength. He acknowledges that Harris is a live underdog with good grappling and power, but he thinks Rakhmonov's skills are special. He is backing Rakhmonov but admits he has been burned by having too much faith in prospects.

"as of now i'm backing rack mono but again where have i been getting burned is having too much faith in these guys"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

The MMA Guru picks Carlston Harris as an upset, calling it an 'evens matchup' despite wide odds. He notes Harris has beaten a Dagestani phenom before (Sajid Izakanev) and is more explosive. He predicts a second-round TKO, with Harris cracking Rakhmonov on the chin and finishing with ground strikes. He criticizes Rakhmonov's previous competition as weak.

TKO, round 2, upset pick, odds comment (should be evens)
"i'm going to go with carlston harris over shafkat rachmanov and i think it's an absolute disaster that this fight is so far apart in odds i think this is an evens matchup"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:10 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 21 of 35 60% 64 of 81 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:25
Michel Prazeres 0 6 of 14 42% 32 of 40 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 10 of 17 58% 46 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:23
Michel Prazeres 0 5 of 10 50% 31 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:54
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 11 of 18 61% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:02
Michel Prazeres 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 21 of 35 60% 15 of 26 6 of 8 0 of 1 10 of 20 4 of 4 7 of 11
Michel Prazeres 6 of 14 42% 1 of 6 0 of 2 5 of 6 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 10 of 17 58% 6 of 11 4 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 9 4 of 4 2 of 4
Michel Prazeres 5 of 10 50% 1 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 11 of 18 61% 9 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 7
Michel Prazeres 1 of 4 25% 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting his 100% finish rate, ability to win anywhere, and the massive reach advantage. He acknowledges Prazeres' desperation takedowns and competence on the ground but believes Rakhmonov can win anywhere. Angelo is confident but notes the over on rounds as a possible prop.

over on rounds
"i think rachmanoff can win anywhere and and basically will win anywhere"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by third round KO, citing massive physical advantages (13 years younger, 12-inch reach advantage) and Prazeres's long layoff, age (39), and PED suspension. He notes Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate and well-rounded skills, while Prazeres has never been finished but may gas out. He expects Rakhmonov to pull away as the fight goes on.

by KO, third round
"i'm going to say rock band wins by third round ko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody picks Rakhmonov, citing his reach advantage and youth. He notes Prazeres is 39, coming off a two-year USADA suspension, and looked bad in his last fight. He thinks Prazeres' best weapon (size and strength at 155) is neutralized at 170. Rakhmonov's length and striking should allow him to pick Prazeres apart if he can stuff takedowns. Cody expects Prazeres to press early but fade.

"i would have to go again with another favorite chavez mount rockmon who i was high coming into the ufc cash that ticket at a good odds in my opinion over cowboy oliveira"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jacob picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, echoing Angelo's point that Rakhmonov has more ways to win. He notes Prazeres has many decisions and is not a finisher. The only worry is if Rakhmonov chases a guillotine and ends up on his back. Jacob has Rakhmonov in his lineup at 9100.

"i'm gonna take a line out of your uh playbook because you always say when one fighter just has more ways to win than the other fighter i think that's exactly what this is with rakhmanov"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a promising prospect with a strong grappling game, but he needs to prove himself against a veteran like Prazeres. Prazeres has never been finished and has a non-existent neck, making submissions difficult. Rakhmonov should control the fight and win a decision. However, the price is too high for a fighter with only one UFC win, so I'm not making him my lock.

Rakhmonov by decision
"I like rachmaninov here i think he wins by decision but i'm not running home yet to uh throw him into all my parleys"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul picks Rakhmonov, noting his finishing ability and reach advantage. He thinks Prazeres is too old and off a long layoff to be effective. He expects Rakhmonov to keep the fight at range and eventually find a finish. He is not worried about Prazeres' takedowns because Rakhmonov is a combat sambo specialist.

"rachmanoff i i didn't think that his his debut was all that impressive but i think it's onwards and upwards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov by first-round guillotine choke, predicting he will hurt Prazeres on the feet, prompting a panic takedown that Rakhmonov will capitalize on. He acknowledges Prazeres' underrated resume but notes his age (39) and long layoff (over two years) as major concerns. He trusts Rakhmonov's undefeated record and ability to overcome adversity.

first round guillotine choke
"i'm gonna pick him to win by guillotine again"
WIN vs Alex Oliveira
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 4:40 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 16 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:04
Alex Oliveira 0 13 of 25 52% 32 of 44 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 16 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:04
Alex Oliveira 0 13 of 25 52% 32 of 44 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 4 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 13 of 25 52% 6 of 14 4 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 4 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 13 of 25 52% 6 of 14 4 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting he bet him at +135. He believes Rakhmonov is the higher output fighter and that Oliveira's takedown defense is suspect. He predicts a third-round knockout, as Oliveira has been finished before. He also notes Oliveira is on short notice.

third round knockout, inside the distance
"give me a shove cat rachmanov i want to say he can win a decision but he's never done that before i'm gonna pick him to win inside the distance here uh give me a third round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Daniel Levi picks Alex Oliveira, disagreeing with the line and stating Oliveira should be a favorite. He believes Rakhmonov is overrated due to being mistaken for Russian, and that Oliveira's body of work and physicality will be too much. He warns Oliveira not to pull a stunt and expects him to win by decision, possibly by pinning Rakhmonov against the fence and kneeing the body.

Oliveira should be at least -185; Rakhmonov is not Russian but Kazakh; Oliveira missed weight at 173 lbs but has won after missing weight before
"i'm going with alex cowboy oliveira to defeat shavatt rockman"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host likes Shavkat Rakhmonov as a dog, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and strong ground game. He notes that Alex Oliveira is a wild card with cardio issues and inconsistent performances. He sees value at +155 but is not fully committed.

under 2.5 rounds
"i do like the rachmaninov line at least plus 155 it's not too bad"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Rakhmonov is undefeated (12-0), has run through M1 and Battle of the Nomads, and has beaten experienced opponents. He believes Oliveira is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite, has been KO'd many times, and is taking the fight on short notice at an older age.

first round TKO
"i think chefcat rachmandov is going to go out there get the upset and get himself a first round tko finish"
Neil Magny - Fight History
SCHED vs Ramiz Brahimaj
LOSS vs Yaroslav Amosov
Submission R1 3:14 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 5 of 11 45% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yaroslav Amosov 0 9 of 19 47% 13 of 27 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 5 of 11 45% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yaroslav Amosov 0 9 of 19 47% 13 of 27 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 5 of 11 45% 2 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yaroslav Amosov 9 of 19 47% 3 of 12 0 of 0 6 of 7 8 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 5 of 11 45% 2 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yaroslav Amosov 9 of 19 47% 3 of 12 0 of 0 6 of 7 8 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Yaroslav Amosov vs. Neil Magny
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Amosov (-400); Magny (+300)

Round 1
Your guess is as good as ours as to what the deal was today with this welterweight pairing. Once buried on the prelims, it now headlines them in open defiance of a rumor swirling that Magny was forced out of the fight. Still very much on the card, grizzled veteran and proud trap fight setter Magny (31-13, 23-12 UFC) may be the biggest underdog on the card despite being on his first win streak since 2022. The reason for the odds discrepancy is because he is facing once-beaten former Bellator king Amosov (28-1, 0-0 UFC), who had a de facto tune-up fight in March against Curtis Millender on the regionals before bouncing into the UFC. Grappling is likely about to be the name of the game for the next 15 minutes or fewer, and referee Herb Dean will oversee the proceedings. There is no sign of a glove touch between the two.
Magny leads the dance with a leg kick, and Amosov throws one back that is checked. Magny jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and he dodges to avoid a looping counter. Magny sticks and moves, and he leans as a head kick grazes the side of his melon. Magny’s jab puts him too close to the wrestler, who grabs hold of him and tries to perform a double from behind. He chains it into a single, and Magny breaks out of it all and pops Amosov with a jab and a knee. They tie up, and Amosov looks for a short shot but takes a few more knees. The clinch leads to Amosov going for a single, and Magny falls to his back as Amosov establishes half guard. Amosov wraps his left arm around the head, possibly setting up an arm-triangle choke while simultaneously looking to pass guard with his legs. Magny controls his foe’s left arm to thwart a submission coming together, as well as a guard pass.
Amosov nails his foe with a short left, and he climbs up and over to grab hold of an anaconda choke while skipping straight past mount. The Ukrainian rolls through it to hold on in a nearly north-south posture, and the submission is now ironclad. Magny pushes off on his adversary’s ankle, arm and anything else he can grab hold of, hoping to get some space and save himself, to no avail.
Before he goes out on his shield, Magny taps out on Amosov’s posterior. Just like that, “Dynamo” has passed his first UFC test with flying colors, putting away a longtime veteran in just a couple minutes. On the microphone, Amosov introduces himself to his new company, saying “hi” to the other men at 170 pounds that he can dance with soon.

The Official Result
Yaroslav Amosov def. Neil Magny R1 3:14 via Submission (Anaconda Choke)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Yaroslav Amosov

Cody picks Amosov, citing his elite takedown defense and striking. He acknowledges Magny's experience and cardio but thinks Amosov's skills will prevail. He expects Amosov to win the first two rounds and possibly finish.

"Give me Amosov here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Yaroslav Amosov

Connor also picks Amosov, but notes that Amosov has cut back on his striking and become more grappling-focused, which could be a problem against certain opponents. However, he believes Magny is a good matchup for Amosov's style. He foresees a dominant win but warns that Amosov may struggle against fighters like Ian Garry who can stuff takedowns.

"I think this will be a good fight for him. I foresee him having a dreadful fight with ian gary... but I'm glad he's here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Yaroslav Amosov

Lucrative James picks Yaroslav Amosov confidently, highlighting his elite wrestling and submission skills. He notes Neil Magny's history of being submitted and outgrappled, and believes Amosov will pass the 'Neil Magny test' with a submission. He projects Amosov as a -300 favorite.

"I'm actually going to go out there and pick Yarislav Amos to submit him, you know, to finish what Jake Matthews started."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Paul leans toward Magny as a live dog, citing too many question marks with Amosov's activity and motivation. He thinks Magny's experience and cardio could pay off if Amosov fades, but is not confident enough to lay the price. He suggests live betting Magny.

"Dog or pass. Neil Magny at plus 300 is never... Live bet him after the first round and you get a better price."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Yaroslav Amosov

Zane picks Amosov confidently, predicting a dominant grappling performance. He notes that Magny is bad off his back and that Amosov's wrestling and top pressure will be too much. He compares it to Magny's losses against strong wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and RDA. He expects Amosov to get a takedown early and transition to a submission.

Odds: Amosov opened -500, now -400; Magny opened +375, now +300. Zane is okay with the odds.
"I do think he's gonna run shop on the Omegne. I think this is actually the kind of fight where this is gonna look a lot more like Neil Magni versus Gilbert Burns."
WIN vs Jake Matthews
Submission R3 3:08 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jake Matthews 0 18 of 44 40% 28 of 54 0 of 1 0% 3 1 4:43
Neil Magny 0 31 of 57 54% 73 of 103 3 of 5 60% 1 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jake Matthews 0 9 of 20 45% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:22
Neil Magny 0 18 of 32 56% 24 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:08
2 Jake Matthews 0 7 of 16 43% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:53
Neil Magny 0 7 of 14 50% 22 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Jake Matthews 0 2 of 8 25% 4 of 10 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:28
Neil Magny 0 6 of 11 54% 27 of 36 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jake Matthews 18 of 44 40% 11 of 36 4 of 4 3 of 4 15 of 37 2 of 4 1 of 3
Neil Magny 31 of 57 54% 28 of 52 1 of 2 2 of 3 29 of 52 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jake Matthews 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 3 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
Neil Magny 18 of 32 56% 16 of 30 0 of 0 2 of 2 18 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jake Matthews 7 of 16 43% 5 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 3
Neil Magny 7 of 14 50% 7 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 1 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jake Matthews 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
Neil Magny 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jake Matthews vs. Neil Magny
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-475); Magny (+350)

Round 1
Two of the most experienced welterweights in the company wage battle as the main card rolls on, with betting lines a lot wider than most would expect. A substantial favorite of -400 or above, the younger Matthews (22-7, 15-7 UFC) is on his first three-fight win streak in five years. On the other side of the coin, the 38-year-old Magny (30-13, 23-12 UFC) has dropped two of three, all knockouts. The respectful gentlemen will not likely need any refs to keep things clean, but they nevertheless will be joined by referee Jim Perdios. A cordial fist bump is exchanged.
The two swat at one another early with single distant strikes, and Matthews have wider arcs on them but are less accurate. Magny bounces off the cage wall to let go with a low kick, and he is knocked back from a right hand. Magny recovers and flicks out his jab, and he takes a strong calf kick that gives him pause. Magny’s jab bounces off the forehead, and he pushes off the face and his finger grazes the eye. Perdios tells them to be careful, and they carry on.
Matthews chips at the front leg, and Magny spurs into action with a long flurry of punches that largely miss the mark. “The Haitian Sensation” goes after a takedown, and Matthews stops it in its tracks and backs Magny off with a clubbing right hand. Matthews digs a left to the liver and two rights to the head, and he lets Magny unload on him so he can counter back. Magny stays behind his jab, and when Matthews closes in, Magny ties him up. Matthews gets free, and Magny shoots in deep for a double. Matthews tries to defend with a guillotine on the way down, and Magny fights the hand to alleviate the pressure. Magny cannot fight off the choke, and Matthews rolls him over to full mount with one arm holding tight. Matthews squeezes with all his weight, and Magny relaxes and his right arm starts to fall to the side. Perdios waves the fight off right at the bell for a technical submission while saying, “he’s out,” and Magny immediately shouts “No” several times as he stands back up to declare that he is not out. Despite that Perdios called off the fight, he goes back on his decision and says that the fight is still on and that the round is over. This is extremely confusing, as Perdios came into contact with the fighters a moment before the horn sounded, so by definition it should go down as a tech sub or possibly a no contest due to a premature stoppage. Magny catches a serious break here, and he goes back to his corner mad as can be.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 2
We have reached Round 2 despite the stoppage-non-stoppage. Magny appears fine again, and Matthews lays into him with early offense. The punches and elbows from Matthews lead to a takedown from him, and he drags the grizzled veteran to the floor. From there, Matthews starts to impose his grappling game, comfortably shifting from position to position. “The Celtic Kid” relocates himself into a mounted triangle, with Perdios watching on closely. Magny hangs on tight, not giving up even in a bad, bad way. Magny manages to break out of the sub, but he still finds himself on his back absorbing strikes when not dealing with a submission attempt, setup or trap. Matthews softens up the midsection and moves to half guard, and he hunts for an arm-triangle choke at the same time. The dueling actions allow Magny to get out of the choke and wrap up his opponent. Matthews rides out the remainder of the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 3
The elder statesman presses the action to start the final round, and he strikes his way into a trip attempt. Matthews remains upright without issue, and he pushes Magny back to reset. Magny tackles his man to the canvas, and Matthews clings to a guillotine choke like before. With the choke in, Matthews uses his feet to walk across the cage wall and flip himself over, but Magny frees himself before getting mounted. Both stand up, and Magny knees the Aussie in the body a few times. Magny presses Matthews down to knee him in the face in the clinch, and he does work with body shots. Matthews busts out of the clinch and retreats, and Magny chases after him and hurts him with a combination of punches. Magny strikes his way into securing a takedown, and he steps into full mount. Matthews scrambles and turns over to get Magny off of him, and he counters with a single as Magny stands up. Magny lifts Matthews up during a takedown and was going to perform a pro wrestling move but spiking is illegal so he thinks twice.
Using his long arms, Magny laces them beneath Matthews’ armpits and under the throat with a surprise brabo choke. Matthews does not panic, even though he has taken some shots and may be fading. As Magny exerts heavy chest pressure with the choke tight as a drum, Matthews has no way out. Before long, he taps out, and Magny has staged the incredible comeback that would only be shocking if it was not Neil “Expletive Deleted” Magny.
Think back to Magny vs. Hector Lombard, or when he snared Daniel Rodriguez in a choke. For the latter, that was the last time Magny landed a submission—and it was a brabo choke then, too. The victor walks back to his corner grinning from ear to ear, even as the crowd does not like it. The story on this match may not be done here, depending on if there is an official review or appeal of the actions in the first round. For the time being, Magny has done it again, pulling off a third-round victory after taking a beating. Matthews is the first fighter repping Oceania tonight to come up short, with their record currently 7-1 with three more to go tonight.

The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Jake Matthews R3 3:08 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Angelo picks Jake Matthews, the biggest favorite on the card, citing his well-rounded skills and high level of competition. He believes Matthews will avoid Magny's clinch game and use takedowns and busy hands to win. He notes that Magny struggles against younger, faster fighters and that Matthews is not stupid enough to engage in a clinch battle.

"Jake Matthews is the pick. That's why he's a five to one favorite here. He was a six to1 favorite, so it did tighten a little bit, but I don't think that's a reflection of people losing confidence as much …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Big Brady picks Jake Matthews to win by second-round submission. He believes Matthews has finally put it together and is well-rounded with good boxing, wrestling, and BJJ. He thinks Magny is on the decline and has been submitted in six of his UFC losses.

second round submission
"Give me Jake Matthews. Give me Jake Matthews by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Cody picks Matthews, noting he has finally become consistent and is putting his skills together. He believes Matthews is a better striker than Magny now and can defend takedowns, forcing a striking match where Matthews should outland Magny. He also cites the hometown advantage and Magny's recent struggles against leg kicks and younger fighters.

"I got Jake Matthews at this line. He's the biggest favorite on the card, right?"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Connor also picks Matthews, agreeing that Magny's jab-dependent pressure game has faded. He notes that Magny's recent wins have come against opponents who fell apart, and that Matthews's improved combination punching and wrestling could exploit Magny's vulnerabilities. Connor is cautious because Matthews has a history of reverting to a bad back-foot boxing style, but he thinks Matthews's recent performances show he has moved past that.

"I think I'll go with Matthews."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

James picks Jake Matthews confidently, stating he is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, and power. He notes Matthews is in his prime at 31 and on the best run of his career, while Magny is an aging veteran with a poor ground game. He expects Matthews to take Magny down at will and possibly finish, but predicts a clear decision (30-27 or 29-28) as most likely.

"Jake Matthews is pretty confident pick here for me."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

James confidently picks Jake Matthews, noting he is the biggest favorite on the card. He predicts a finish, possibly by arm triangle, as Magny is older and has been finished recently. He believes Matthews is in his prime and should win easily.

by submission (arm triangle) or inside the distance
"I'm actually going to predict the finish here now."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

The host expects Matthews to take a grapple-heavy approach like his last fight. He acknowledges Magny could have an advantage if the fight goes into deeper water, but thinks Matthews will do enough in the first 10-12 minutes to win on the scorecards.

"I'm expecting Matthews to take another grapple heavy approach just like he did last time around against Chitty and Jakuani. I think he might meet some resistance here and should this fight go into deeper water, it could start to …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

The Guru picks Jake Matthews, believing his well-rounded game and experience against long fighters like Neil Magny will pay off. He notes Matthews' recent submission win and thinks he can replicate that success. He predicts a TKO via low kicks and follow-up shots, calling it a coming-out party.

TKO via low kicks
"I'm going to go with Jake Matthews getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Zane picks Matthews, citing his recent improvements in combination punching and assertiveness. He notes that Magny looks vulnerable on the feet now and has lost his ability to put pressure with his jab. Zane thinks Matthews's wrestling and willingness to mix it up could be key, as Magny has historically struggled against wrestlers. He acknowledges that Matthews's past struggles are a concern, but believes the current version of Matthews is better.

"I think I'll go with Matthews."
KO/TKO R2 4:39 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 42 of 67 62% 80 of 113 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:19
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 20 of 42 47% 42 of 69 1 of 5 20% 0 0 4:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 17 of 36 47% 29 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 18 of 36 50% 24 of 42 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:03
2 Neil Magny 0 25 of 31 80% 51 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:03
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 2 of 6 33% 18 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 42 of 67 62% 38 of 61 4 of 4 0 of 2 19 of 43 3 of 3 20 of 21
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 20 of 42 47% 5 of 24 4 of 5 11 of 13 17 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 17 of 36 47% 13 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 2 16 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 18 of 36 50% 5 of 20 4 of 5 9 of 11 15 of 32 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Neil Magny 25 of 31 80% 25 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 21
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor picks Zaleski, noting that Magny has looked increasingly hurtable and gun-shy, while Zaleski still has power and violence in his game. He acknowledges both fighters may be declining, but Zaleski's underlying physicality and scrambling ability give him the edge. Connor doubts Magny can replicate his past comeback wins.

"I got to pick Zaleski at that point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zane also picks Zaleski, pointing out that Magny's recent performances show a decline in output and durability. He notes that Zaleski has historically struggled against rangy strikers, but Magny's current form may not pose that threat. Zane believes Zaleski's wrestling and scrambling will be too much for Magny to handle.

"I mean, Zaleski's just more dangerous competitive wrestler and scrambler."
CANCEL vs Gunnar Nelson
LOSS vs Carlos Prates
KO (punch) R1 4:50 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Prates 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 33 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:31
Neil Magny 2 12 of 21 57% 13 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Prates 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 33 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:31
Neil Magny 2 12 of 21 57% 13 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Prates 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Neil Magny 12 of 21 57% 9 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 3 10 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Prates 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Neil Magny 12 of 21 57% 9 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 3 10 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-650), Magny (+470)

Round 1
Ever the “trap fight” connoisseur, Magny (29-12, 22-11 UFC) would like nothing more than to derail the quick rise of power-punching Prates (20-6, 3-0 UFC). The durable New Yorker by way of Colorado may be susceptible to getting blitzed early, but he also has the unearthly ability to outlast opponents and turn on the jets. Ask Hector Lombard, Mike Malott or Daniel Rodriguez, to name but a few. With five rounds to get things done, it could be a lot of fun until what could be a dramatic end. Referee Mark Smith is in it for the long haul, and he brings the welterweights to the center of the cage to bump fists. They do not bump fists. It’s on with the show. Magny strides into the middle of the Octagon to get going, where he uses his length with low kicks and jabs to surprise the Brazilian with a sudden level change. Magny goes after a single-leg takedown, pressing Prates to the cage but falling to his back. Magny lands on his back and closes his guard, with Prates posturing up for a second before Magny wraps him up again. Prates looks for one big right hand when he finds space, and Magny boxes his ears and tries to keep him tight. Prates works his way out of the grappling and stands back up, and he launches a leg kick only to have to deal with three lunging punches flying back his way. Magny come up close and elbows his opponent, looking for a trip and letting it go to chase Prates while dinging him with a right hand. Magny drops down for a single, and Prates hops out of danger and finds himself dealing with a second attempt as soon as he spins around. Magny lifts the limb up, and Prates’ balance is immaculate as he not only stays on his feet but lowers his leg back down. Prates gets off a single knee with his back to the wall, and Magny hangs on until Prates explodes out. Magny jabs from afar, and he leans to avoid a looping left hand. Prates has his left hand chambered, and he stops a double-leg entry and kicks Magny’s rear leg. Prates whips a left to Magny’s chest, and he knocks Magny down with a fierce short right hand. Magny is told to stand back up, and Prates walks him down, swarming him with punches. Magny bounces off the cage wall, kicking out with front kicks to keep distance before selling out for a single. Prates defends it, frees his trapped arm and walks Magny down. Magny snipes him from a long way out, with his reaching limbs effectively keeping “The Nightmare” at bay…until they don’t.
Prates unloads a monstrous left hand that does not even connect flush but buzzes the top of the veteran’s head. This is all it takes, with Prates apparently possessing “dim mak” as Magny falls to his face, unconscious. Prates walks off, knowing his work here is done, and everyone in the Apex is stunned as they may not have seen the mighty sleep-inducing blow.
“Breakthrough Fighter of the Year” may be well and truly sewn up, with Prates making his promotional debut in 2024 and scoring four knockouts, none greater than his annihilation of tricky vet Magny. The perennial contender comes to as Smith tends to him, and Prates dons the trademark Fighting Nerds glasses to celebrate his terrific handiwork. The Brazilian calls his shot, with very specific plans in mind: Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 312 in Australia. If this is too big of a gap, dispatching the UFC’s #15 Magny and moving on to a top-five adversary, he is reasonable and suggests he and Geoff Neal would engage in a wild one. No matter what the heavy-handed rising fighter gets next, we will be here for it—just like we will be ready for UFC 309 next week. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Neil Magny R1 4:50 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Angelo picks Carlos Prates despite Neil Magny's vast experience. He believes Prates is too accurate with good footwork to be caught in a takedown. He notes Prates' power and finishing streak (9-fight KO streak). He thinks Magny would need to wrestle without getting hit, which is unlikely. He expects Prates to make it 10 KOs in a row.

"Carlos prattes is the pick the odds do seem to be long gone though maybe they'll start to correct themselves"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Big Brady is confident in Prates, citing his speed, power, and range. He believes Magny is on the decline and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Prates will land a knockout in the second round.

Prates by KO/TKO, round 2
"I'll say second round for Carlos press there by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Cody agrees Prates is the favorite but warns about the wide money line. He notes Prates' unique style and finishing ability, but also points out that Magny has a grappling and cardio advantage if the fight goes past two rounds. Cody suggests a live bet on Magny if Prates doesn't finish early, but ultimately picks Prates.

Prates by KO, under 2.5 rounds, live bet on Magny if fight goes past two rounds
"Carlos Prates by knockout the under two and a half and yet the guy's been smoking darts and breaking hearts."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Magny's recent performances show a decline in activity and that Prates is smart enough to kick the legs and avoid Magny's clinch. He thinks Magny's only path is if Prates makes a mistake, but he doesn't see that happening. Connor is confident Prates will win, likely by knockout.

"I think I will actually be surprised here if Neil Magny does not get knocked out."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Carlos Prates to win by knockout, citing Prates' calf kicks and Muay Thai as key weapons against Neil Magny. He notes that Magny's reach advantage won't be an issue because Prates is a big welterweight who can fight at range and in the clinch. Vreeland expects a finish, possibly in round four, referencing the Santiago Ponzinibbio fight where Magny was finished late. He also mentions Prates' jiu-jitsu black belt but predicts a KO.

Prates by KO (-300), Prates round 1 (+200), round 2 (+350), round 3 (+450), round 4 (+900), under 2.5 rounds (-215)
"I am gonna pick Carlos Prates to come out here and put Neil Magny as another member of his highlight reel, it's going to be a 16th knockout in my opinion."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win by KO, noting that Neil Magny's best days are behind him and that Prates has a strong win streak. He acknowledges that Prates has shown some vulnerabilities, such as being wobbled and dropping rounds, but believes Prates will eventually land a kill shot. He also mentions that Magny does well against southpaws, which could make the fight closer early, but ultimately expects Prates to finish him.

by KO
"Carlos pratez via KO is the final prediction"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carlos Prates

Prates is a -750 favorite and the perfect fighter to cause Neil Magny issues. He will use leg kicks to slow Magny down, then open up with combinations to find a big shot and finish him in the second or third round.

wins inside distance, round 2-3, odds -750
"prates finding himself as a minus 750 favor going into this matchup and it completely makes sense as he is the perfect architect of fighter that causes Neil Magny issues look for a lot of light kicks from proess to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Paul believes Prates is an absolute sniper with devastating power, as shown by knocking out Jin Jin Leang Lee. He thinks Neil Magny's only path is wrestling, but if he can't get takedowns, his striking won't scare Prates. Paul sees a knockout as almost inevitable and recommends the under 2.5 rounds or Prates by KO prop.

Prates by KO, under 2.5 rounds
"Carlos Prates by knockout seems like it's almost inevitable."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

The Guru picks Carlos Prates to win by TKO, citing Prates' Muay Thai style, low kicks, and finishing ability. He notes Neil Magny's poor leg kick defense and recent TKO loss two and a half months ago, suggesting Magny is vulnerable. He expects Prates to chew up Magny's leg early and finish with body shots in round two or late round one.

TKO win, low kicks, body shots finish, round 2 or late round 1
"I'm going to go with Carlos prattes getting this one done with prattes people are say are you Gary couldn't finish nil magnet dude mag Gary doesn't have power like that"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Zane is very high on Prates, calling him his favorite striker in MMA. He praises Prates' understanding of range, active defense, and ability to cut off opponents' offense. He believes Prates will outclass Magny, who has become inactive and is vulnerable to leg kicks and pressure. Zane expects a knockout.

"I'm picking Pratas very confidently here."
LOSS vs Michael Morales
TKO (punches) R1 4:39 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Aug 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Morales 0 5 of 11 45% 13 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:05
Neil Magny 1 34 of 40 85% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Morales 0 5 of 11 45% 13 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:05
Neil Magny 1 34 of 40 85% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Morales 5 of 11 45% 1 of 7 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1
Neil Magny 34 of 40 85% 30 of 35 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Morales 5 of 11 45% 1 of 7 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1
Neil Magny 34 of 40 85% 30 of 35 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 35
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, calling himself a 'big Michael Morales guy.' He highlights Morales' national championships in freestyle wrestling and Muay Thai, his fantastic footwork, and his clean takedowns. He believes Morales is better than Magny everywhere and will win with accurate striking and takedowns. He notes Magny's age and recent comeback win but thinks Morales is the superior fighter.

"I think Morales is better than Magny literally everywhere literally everywhere I can't think of a single aspect in MMA where Neil Magny is better"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Cody picks Morales because he is a young, talented prospect with a judo background and power. He thinks Morales will outwork Magny and possibly get a finish. He notes that Magny has looked slow and flat-footed in recent fights and has been outworked by lesser fighters. He believes Morales' cardio is good and he won't fade like some prospects.

Michael Morales by decision
"sign me up for Michael Morales but at 850 at 850 we got to be talking about this thing like it is a slam dunk Surefire thing"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Michael Morales, arguing that Morales thrives in the clinch where Magny often beats opponents. He notes Morales' improving hands and wrestling background, and believes he will beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish.

finish
"I think is going to actually beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Brevin picks Magny as a big underdog, citing his experience against top competition, his size and reach advantage, and his grappling edge. He thinks Morales is overhyped and will get fraud-checked. He notes Magny is a gatekeeper who often wins these matchups. JP disagrees, picking Morales, calling Magny a 40-year-old gatekeeper who goes to decision and has shown his ceiling. JP thinks Morales is better and younger.

Magny by submission (potential)
"I'm gonna take another big Underdog here give me Neil Magny wow give me Neil Magny to get done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Paul takes a small shot on Magny at +600 because he thinks the line is too wide. He notes that Morales has looked good but has dropped rounds and hasn't faced a veteran like Magny. He thinks Magny's cardio and clinch work could give Morales problems if the fight goes deep. He admits Morales likely wins but the price is worth a small bet.

"I took a small poke on Neil magn at plus 600 um it's not going to kill me either way"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales because he believes Neil Magny is past his prime at 37 and does not check low kicks. He notes Morales is young (25), talented, and has good wins over Jake Matthews and Max Griffin. He expects Morales to attack the low kicks and stuff takedowns, winning on the feet.

"I'm going to go with Michael Morales um he beat Jake Matthews I think that's a decent win Max Griffin a decent win"
WIN vs Mike Malott
TKO (punches) R3 4:45 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 57 of 102 55% 110 of 159 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:47
Mike Malott 0 45 of 67 67% 100 of 128 4 of 6 66% 0 0 6:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 5 of 25 20% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Mike Malott 0 20 of 31 64% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Neil Magny 0 6 of 15 40% 18 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 21 of 30 70% 67 of 79 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:08
3 Neil Magny 0 46 of 62 74% 80 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Mike Malott 0 4 of 6 66% 13 of 18 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 57 of 102 55% 52 of 95 3 of 3 2 of 4 13 of 44 0 of 2 44 of 56
Mike Malott 45 of 67 67% 19 of 40 4 of 4 22 of 23 30 of 49 0 of 0 15 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 5 of 25 20% 4 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 3 5 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Malott 20 of 31 64% 2 of 13 1 of 1 17 of 17 20 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Neil Magny 6 of 15 40% 4 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Malott 21 of 30 70% 14 of 22 3 of 3 4 of 5 9 of 17 0 of 0 12 of 13
3 Neil Magny 46 of 62 74% 44 of 60 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 44 of 56
Mike Malott 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-340), Magny (+270)

Round 1
With Malott looking to show he is a Top 15 fighter, and Magny aiming to prove that he can do more than man the velvet rope for that category even at age 36, only one is likely to get his wish. Kevin Macdonald is the referee. Both fighters are in orthodox stance, and Malott lands a front kick to Magny’s lead leg immediately. Magny comes forward behind a high guard and Malott goes back to the lead leg with another push kick. Moments later, he hits Magny with a calf kick to that leg, then another. A strategy appears to be emerging. Malott steps in behind an overhand right, and Magny meets him, grabbing a clinch. Malott immediately shoves him off. Malott surges forward with a pair of big looping hooks. They fall short but succeed in backing Magny straight to the fence. Malott throws a lightning-fast head kick, but Magny just as quickly steps inside and takes the clinch again. Malott drives Magny to the fence and pummels his way out of the position, moving away from the cage and forcing Magny to follow. Malott goes back to the leg kicks, all aimed at the lead left leg of Magny. Malott is now getting Magny to bite on hip feints, indicating the effect the kicks have had so far. Malott lands a glancing low kick at the 10-second clapper, the last offense of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 2
Magny throws a low kick to open the round, which Malott checks. Magny stalks forward and Malott gives ground, then plants and catches Magny with a clean two-punch combination that stings. Malott lands an inside kick to the lead leg, followed by a body kick on the other side. Magny comes crashing forward, but Malott uses a body lock to take him down, landing in full guard. Magny works to create some space to escape, but Malott more or less lets him up. Malott closes the distance again and uses a body lock and trip to dump the taller man to the floor at the base of the fence. Malott is in a sort of loose half guard, hovering over Magny, and when he dives in with an elbow strike, Magny locks down his right leg. Malott gets a few shots in from half guard, then stands over Magny. Magny throws a upkick and Malott jumps right back onto him, moving to mount. Magny spins to put his feet against the fence, looking to use the cage to bridge and escape, but Malott scoots him away from the cage and stays in mount, throwing methodical, heavy elbows and forearms. Malott isolates Magny’s left arm, perhaps considering a submission, but at the 10-second clapper gives up on it and throws strikes until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 3
Malott throws a leg kick and backs Magny up with punches, then changes levels and more or less bowls him over for a fast takedown, landing in mount. Magny wraps his arms around Malott, keeping him from posturing up and doing major damage, then bucks and returns to his feet. Malott follows him across the cage and launches himself at his hips, scoring another easy takedown. Magny gets to full guard, then grapevines the legs, trying to keep Malott from going anywhere. Malott throws some short strikes before standing up out of guard and dives back in, but ends up in full guard again. Magny stands and Malott grabs a guillotine, pulling guard as he does, but Magny pops his head out and ends up on top, where he starts throwing punches with some urgency. Malott is suddenly looking exhausted and Magny is all over him. Malott turns to his side, but otherwise offers no real defense as Magny continues throwing a stream of unblocked punches with both hands. There’s less than 30 seconds left. Referee Macdonald is looking on closely, and as motivated as he might be to avoid any possibility of a quick stoppage, after at least two dozen unanswered blows, he interposes himself for the TKO with just 15 seconds left on the clock. What a comeback by the ageless, indefatigable Neil Magny.

The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Mike Malott R3 4:45 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Angelo picks Malott, viewing this as a showcase for the Canadian prospect. He acknowledges Magny's experience and toughness but notes Magny has looked declining in recent fights. He warns against overexposure on Malott since this is his toughest opponent, but plans to have some action on him.

Will have some action on Malott; avoid overexposure
"this has to be a Mike mot pick this is the matchup in Canada for a reason"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Big Brady is very confident in Malott, calling it a setup fight. He notes Malott is dangerous everywhere with 100% finish rate, while Magny is 36, has taken damage, and has been submitted six times. He expects Malott to get a takedown and submit Magny in the first round.

first round submission
"give be Mike mot to win this fight by first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Cody is confident Malott wins, citing his size, strength, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Malott's quick finishes but acknowledges Magny's durability and cardio. He suggests Malott by decision as a prop because Magny is tough to finish.

Malott by decision at +400 to +450
"Mot definitely the pick... the prop is a little tricky... maybe mot by decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Daniel Vreeland picks Mike Malott to win but is hesitant due to Malott's unproven ceiling and Magny's veteran tactics. He acknowledges Malott's dangerous finishing ability and guillotine series, but worries about Magny's clinch game and length. He notes Magny has been fading but has also been a tough fade historically. He passes on betting the -400 line.

"I'm going to pick Mike mot to continuous streak and show out"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Vreeland picks Magny as a dog, citing the massive step up in competition for Malott. He notes Magny's size, reach advantage, and ability to impose his game plan. Vreeland questions Malott's path to victory, doubting he can outwrestle Magny or overcome the reach disadvantage on the feet. He sees value in the plus money.

plus 310 dog money
"I am going dog that's going to surprise you probably right Neil Magny I had a feeling you Neil Magny big step up like this is this is a real big step up from lot unless Magny is totally from …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Fox also picks Magny, agreeing with Vreeland on the step up in competition. He notes Magny's reach advantage and good wrestling defense. Fox doesn't see a clear path for Malott, as Magny is a tall fighter who knows how to use his reach. He likes the dog money.

plus 310 dog money
"I don't really like the pass to Victory here from a lot do you think he's like gonna out wrestle Neil Magny like mag's got pretty good wrestling right like he he's at least defensively seems like he's got good …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Magny vs Malott.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mike Malott

I fully expect Malott to play with Magny on the feet, eventually drag the fight to the ground, and strangle him with a submission. Malott's grappling advantage is huge, and Magny has historically struggled against strong grapplers. The -365 line is a bit wide for a prospect against a veteran, but I think the fight will look like a cakewalk for Malott. I'm looking for a first-round submission.

submission victory, first round finish
"I fully expect Mike mot to play with Magny on the feet a little bit eventually drag this fight to the ground and strangle Neo Magny on route to a submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Paul agrees Malott wins but won't bet the -400 moneyline. He thinks Malott has the power and grappling advantage but Magny is durable and has gone the distance with top guys. He considers Malott by decision as a possible prop.

Malott by decision (mentioned as a possibility)
"I think mot wins... there's no way I touch the minus 400."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mike Malott

The MMA Guru picks Mike Malott, citing Magny's age and recent KO loss to Ian Garry. He trusts Malott's pressure and leg kicks, and predicts a submission via arm triangle in round two. He also mentions Magny's personal issues (custody battle) as a potential distraction.

submission, round 2
"I'm going to go with Mike Mallet I was going I was honestly hedging the idea of picking Neil Magny here"
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov confidently, noting his 100% finish rate and well-rounded skills. He expects Rakhmonov to have success striking but ultimately lean on his wrestling for the win, similar to how Michael Chiesa took Magny down four times. He believes Magny's recent performances against Max Griffin and Jeff Neal show vulnerability.

"i like shaft cat to have success striking but ultimately lean on his wrestling for the win shove cat rachmanoff is my pick and i'm pretty confident"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round knockout. He is very confident, citing Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate (8 KO, 7 sub), power in hands and kicks, and underrated submission game. He notes Magny's poor chin (dropped often, finished 6 times) and that he was dropped by Max Griffin. He sees Magny's only path as holding Rakhmonov against the cage, but doubts judges will score that. He expects Rakhmonov to hurt and finish Magny early.

Rakhmonov wins by KO in round 1
"i think he hurts magne bad i think he finished him in the very first round and i think he does it by knockout so give me shove rock banav"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is sold on Rakhmonov as a finisher with excellent submission game and power. He notes Magni hasn't been finished in a while but thinks Rakhmonov's precision and finishing ability will get the job done. He recommends Rakhmonov inside the distance at -135.

Rakhmonov inside the distance -135 at DraftKings
"i think if you're gonna play this line rachmaninov 15 wins 15 finishes minus 135 at draftkings sportsbook i think that's the play"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Magni's recent performance against Max Griffin was poor and age may be catching up. He thinks Rakhmonov is precise and fights long, and he leans towards inside the distance by knockout.

"i would lean towards inside the distance by knockout yeah"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that Max Griffin dropped Neil Magny and almost won, and Rakhmonov is much better than Griffin. He believes Rakhmonov will finish Magny in the first round, possibly by submission (d'arce choke). He cites Magny's history of losing to top competition and his inability to outgrapple Rakhmonov.

first round finish prediction, d'arce choke
"i am going to go with chavcat rachmanov over neil magna"