UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022 · Lightweight · Completed
UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 29
Height 5' 7"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Mateusz Gamrot
3.29 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
2.96 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
5.15 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
83.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Arman Tsarukyan
3.85 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
1.8 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
3.26 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Mateusz Gamrot
Moneyline
BetRivers +220
KO/TKO
DraftKings +750
Submission
BetRivers +1200
Decision
BetMGM +550
Arman Tsarukyan
Moneyline
Caesars -240
KO/TKO
BetRivers +255
Submission
FanDuel +550
Decision
FanDuel +180
Mateusz Gamrot - Fight History
Submission R2 4:19 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 34 52% 38 of 56 4 of 6 66% 1 0 6:50
Esteban Ribovics 0 4 of 21 19% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 14 of 21 66% 24 of 33 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:55
Esteban Ribovics 0 1 of 12 8% 3 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 4 of 13 30% 14 of 23 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:55
Esteban Ribovics 0 3 of 9 33% 13 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 34 52% 15 of 29 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 18 0 of 0 14 of 16
Esteban Ribovics 4 of 21 19% 2 of 15 0 of 2 2 of 4 4 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 14 of 21 66% 11 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 11 of 11
Esteban Ribovics 1 of 12 8% 0 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 3 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 4 of 13 30% 4 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 5
Esteban Ribovics 3 of 9 33% 2 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, highlighting his superior striking, power, and scrambling ability. He notes Gamrot's chinny nature and lack of finishing threat, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere. He suggests a plus 3.5 prop bet if afraid of the moneyline, expecting Ribovics to not get finished or shut out.

plus 3.5 prop bet
"I'm going to go with the dog here. Estevan's going to be the pick. If you're afraid of the plus 145 money line, wait a few days and do the plus three and a half prop bet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Gamrot to get takedowns but Ribovics to get back up and outland him on the feet with volume and power. He compares it to the Gamrot-Turner fight where Turner did more damage. He thinks it goes to a split decision and takes the dog Ribovics, trusting the judges to score damage over control.

split decision
"I'm going to say it's going to go to Ribovics. I think this has split decision written all over it... give me the dog here and Esteban Ribovics to get it done."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics as an underdog, citing his high volume, power, and improved takedown defense. He thinks Ribovics can outwork Gamrot on the feet and win a decision.

"I'm gonna take the guy that's getting the damage and you got yourself an Argentinian immigrant living in Florida... slight better damage from Rivix leads to a slight decision victory for Riavix."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor picks Gamrot because of his superior takedown ability, which gives him a 'get out of jail free card' whenever Ribovics makes him uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that Ribovics struggles against wrestlers, as seen in the Loic Rajabov fight where he was taken down 11 times. He acknowledges Gamrot's unreliability but trusts his wrestling to control the fight.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel thinks Gamrot is on the decline and his style has been figured out. He believes Ribovics has improved his takedown defense and will outwork Gamrot on the feet.

"I think that Estabbon Rivix has leveled up and I think he's going to come out here and he's going to put the damage on Mat Gamro."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics as a risky underdog, believing that Gamrot is on the decline and that Ribovics' cardio and pressure can exploit Gamrot's slowing reflexes and compromised chin. He notes that Ribovics gets back up from takedowns and lands damage, but acknowledges Gamrot is the better fighter on paper.

"I'm with you, especially because Ribovics is a cardio machine. He fought my guy Kamuela Kirk, and he just would not stop coming."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)

The host finds this fight very difficult to bet pre-fight due to Ribovics' unknown takedown defense improvement since his loss to Radzhabov. He notes Gamrot's cardio issues and Ribovics' cardio advantage, making it risky to bet either side. He suggests the most likely outcome is Gamrot winning the first two rounds and coasting to a 29-28 decision, but also sees a path for Ribovics if his takedown defense has improved.

Likes Ribovics +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes to decision but over odds are too steep.
"This is a really difficult fight from a betting point of view because there's no way that you would want to be betting Ribovic against a strong MMA grappler like Gamrot..."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

James picks the underdog Ribovics, citing Gamrot's recent losses and potential decline, and Ribovics' belief in himself. He sees it as a close fight where Ribovics could win a decision.

"I'm going to pick another underdog here, boys. I mean, this is Dog City."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot's grappling is a level above what Ribovics has faced. Ribovics has improved takedown defense but Gamrot's chain wrestling is relentless. However, Ribovics has a striking edge and could steal rounds if he defends takedowns. Gamrot's experience and pressure should wear Ribovics down over three rounds. It's a sketchy matchup but Gamrot's grappling gives him the edge.

Gamrot wins by decision
"I'm still going to go Gamerot. I'll lean on his grappling. I'll lean on his experience and I think that's going to be enough for him to go out there, grind this fight out and win it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul picks Gamrot, believing his wrestling and control will be enough to win rounds. He is not very confident and acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense improvement.

"I'm still going to go game, but not very confidently. I think just takedowns control over the course of 15 minutes."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Ribovics is explosive, high-volume, and has good takedown defense. He notes Gamrot gets hurt on the feet and struggled with Dan Hooker's scrambles. He predicts Ribovics will drop Gamrot and win a decision, similar to the Hooker fight.

"I'm going to go with Esteban Ribovics here over Mateusz Gamrot."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane picks Gamrot, agreeing that his takedown ability is the key. He notes that Ribovics is not the kind of guy UFC matches against wrestlers, and his last fight against a wrestler (Rajabov) saw him taken down 11 times. He acknowledges that Gamrot is unreliable but believes his wrestling will be decisive.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."
Submission R2 2:48 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Oliveira 0 11 of 33 33% 18 of 40 1 of 1 100% 1 1 3:35
Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Oliveira 0 3 of 8 37% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:47
Mateusz Gamrot 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 8 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
2 Charles Oliveira 0 8 of 25 32% 9 of 26 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:48
Mateusz Gamrot 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Oliveira 11 of 33 33% 4 of 21 3 of 6 4 of 6 10 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 42 42% 16 of 40 2 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Oliveira 3 of 8 37% 0 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 4 of 7 57% 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Oliveira 8 of 25 32% 4 of 17 2 of 5 2 of 3 7 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 14 of 35 40% 13 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot, believing his wrestling and experience at American Top Team will prevent him from getting submitted. He expects Gamrot to win by takedowns and control, similar to Arman Tsarukyan's win over Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's only hope is a knockout on the feet or a submission, but thinks Gamrot is too well-trained. He bet on Gamrot at -120 odds.

bet on Gamrot at -120
"I think Mateusz Gamrot is just too experienced, too well-trained, too ingrained in American Top Team to get caught in a submission on the ground. I do not see that happening."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to finish Mateusz Gamrot by third-round knockout, becoming the first to finish Gamrot. He notes both fighters have durability concerns: Gamrot gets hurt in every fight but never finished, while Oliveira is coming off a brutal KO loss to Ilia Topuria and may be returning too soon. However, Brady thinks Oliveira is pissed off and will pressure hard, land big shots, and eventually drop Gamrot. He believes Gamrot's takedowns won't lead to control, as Oliveira can get back up, and on the feet Oliveira has the death touch. He also notes Gamrot took the fight on short notice and is fighting in Brazil.

knockout
"I'm going to say Olivera finds a finish. I'm going to say he's the first person to finish Matteas. I think it's going to be a war... third round knockout for Charles Ola."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Cody picks Charles Oliveira but is scared due to concerns about Oliveira being a part-time fighter and possibly past his peak. He notes Gamrot's wrestling could be a threat but trusts Oliveira's jiu-jitsu and home crowd advantage. He suggests live betting Oliveira if he loses early rounds.

inside the distance (+160)
"Charles is my pick, but I'm a little scared because I don't know if he's like fully all the way in still at this point."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

James picks Oliveira despite acknowledging Gamrot's wrestling advantage and Oliveira's recent KO loss. He believes Oliveira's superior jiu-jitsu and striking will be key, especially his guillotine and front headlock series to defend takedowns. However, he notes volatility due to short notice and Oliveira's age, and does not plan to bet on this fight.

"I'm going to end up picking Charles Olivea in this fight, boys. I just feel like he's got, you know, way more danger on the feet. way more danger on the ground and more damage upside, more big moment upside."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Lucrative James leans Charles Oliveira, citing his superior striking and submission danger. He believes Gamrot must rely on takedowns, but Oliveira's scrambling and jiu-jitsu are elite. He notes Oliveira's ability to get up from takedowns and his power. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's prime and intangibles, making it a close fight. He picks Oliveira but is not confident.

"I lean Charles Olivea in this fight. And the reason I say I think is because it is a close fight, you know, and I'm not confident either way."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Manpreet picks Gamrot by decision, citing Gamrot's high-level grappling and ability to nullify Oliveira's submission threats. He notes Oliveira's tendency to be too comfortable off his back, which could be exploited by Gamrot's wrestling and scrambles. However, he acknowledges the short notice for Gamrot and calls the fight a toss-up, with low confidence. He mentions that Oliveira's striking advantage and BJJ threat could cause Gamrot problems, but believes Gamrot's grappling defense will keep him safe.

Gamrot by decision
"I'm going to go Gamrot here. I'm going to go Gamrot by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Paul picks Charles Oliveira, citing his excellent striking and grappling, and noting that Gamrot has been knocked down multiple times in the UFC. He believes Oliveira's dual threat of knockout and submission will be too much, especially in a five-round fight where Gamrot's cardio may fade. Paul is confident but acknowledges the risk of Oliveira's age and recent knockout loss.

inside the distance (+160)
"I got Charles Oliveira and if you want to get spicy with it, I think he finishes him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Mateusz Gamrot, citing Oliveira's submission skills and Gamrot's tendency to get hurt and shoot for takedowns, leaving his neck exposed. He notes Gamrot has been rocked in many fights and Oliveira will capitalize with a guillotine. He predicts a submission win in round 1 or 2.

submission in round 1 or 2, guillotine
"I'm going to take Charles Olivea by guillotine submission."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 65 of 110 59% 142 of 224 6 of 11 54% 0 0 8:45
Ľudovít Klein 0 24 of 74 32% 85 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 10 of 19 52% 27 of 43 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:06
Ľudovít Klein 0 2 of 14 14% 6 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 17 of 26 65% 46 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:05
Ľudovít Klein 0 2 of 11 18% 48 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 38 of 65 58% 69 of 108 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:34
Ľudovít Klein 0 20 of 49 40% 31 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 65 of 110 59% 53 of 98 7 of 7 5 of 5 38 of 73 3 of 4 24 of 33
Ľudovít Klein 24 of 74 32% 10 of 49 13 of 23 1 of 2 23 of 73 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 10 of 19 52% 3 of 12 4 of 4 3 of 3 4 of 13 2 of 2 4 of 4
Ľudovít Klein 2 of 14 14% 2 of 11 0 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 17 of 26 65% 15 of 24 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 1 13 of 18
Ľudovít Klein 2 of 11 18% 1 of 7 1 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Mateusz Gamrot 38 of 65 58% 35 of 62 2 of 2 1 of 1 30 of 53 1 of 1 7 of 11
Ľudovít Klein 20 of 49 40% 7 of 31 12 of 17 1 of 1 19 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Angelo picks Ľudovít Klein, citing his smooth striking, accuracy, and 90% takedown defense. He notes that Gamrot is chinny and gets dropped often, and that Klein will do damage on the feet while Gamrot holds on. He prefers a prop bet of 'inside the distance/decision no action' because Klein has finishing upside and Gamrot could win a takedown-heavy decision.

Prefers 'inside the distance/decision no action' bet on Klein; mentions plus 3.5 round spread.
"Ludovit's going to be the pick. But because I'm a scaredy-cat instead of outright betting on Ludovit, I'll probably do a win inside the distance decision no action."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, noting this is a massive step down in competition for Gamrot compared to his recent fights. He expects Gamrot to wrestle for 15 minutes, using the small cage to his advantage. He worries about judges in a damage-over-control era but still believes Gamrot wins a decision.

by decision
"I got to go Gamerot. I'm going to take Gameamro by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor agrees with Zane that Gamrot is the clear pick. He emphasizes that Klein's tendency to be a back-foot, pot-shot striker will not work against Gamrot's pressure and wrestling. Connor also notes that Klein's wrestling, when he uses it, will only lead him into Gamrot's world, where Gamrot is superior. He compares the matchup to Klein's fight with Michael Trizano, where Klein was out-jabbed, and expects a similar outcome with Gamrot's wrestling being the difference.

"I think it'll look probably a little bit like that, uh, trisano fight with single legs. Mm-hmm. And that sounds like a gamrott wind to me. It really does odds on the fight camera is the favorite of a minus …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Matt picks Ľudovít Klein as an underdog. He believes Klein's 91% takedown defense and power striking will neutralize Gamrot's wrestling. Klein lands damaging shots and should win the first two rounds, potentially pulling off the upset. Matt likes Klein by decision at +330.

Klein by decision +330, Gamrot by decision -105
"I'm going to go Klein. Uh, Klein by decision currently sits at plus 330."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, though he acknowledges Klein's danger. He believes Gamrot's size and grappling will be key, especially after getting hurt. He notes Klein's cardio issues and that Gamrot is world-class. He predicts Gamrot wins the later rounds, possibly by finish or decision.

Third round finish or decision
"I'm gonna go with Mattesh Gamro over Ludovic Klein... I think he'll win this one against Ludvic Klein."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane picks Gamrot because he believes Klein's style is a poor matchup for him. Klein tends to fight on the back foot, picking shots one at a time, and relies on either a wrestling advantage or a tempo advantage to win. Against Gamrot, who is a high-pressure wrestler with excellent grappling, Klein's wrestling will likely lead him into trouble. Zane also notes that Klein's recent opponents have been low-output, and Gamrot's pace and ability to wrestle will overwhelm him, similar to how Michael Trizano out-jabbed Klein.

"So it looks like a Gamrot win. It does. Gamrot. He, what the big thing that Dan Hooker showed him is that Gamrot came out and he looked more deft with his lead hand with it or his left hand. …"
LOSS vs Dan Hooker
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Hooker 0 64 of 129 49% 88 of 154 5 of 15 33% 0 0 4:59
Mateusz Gamrot 0 65 of 143 45% 82 of 162 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Hooker 0 26 of 54 48% 31 of 59 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:31
Mateusz Gamrot 0 20 of 43 46% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
2 Dan Hooker 0 11 of 17 64% 27 of 34 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:37
Mateusz Gamrot 0 17 of 34 50% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
3 Dan Hooker 0 27 of 58 46% 30 of 61 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:51
Mateusz Gamrot 0 28 of 66 42% 31 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Hooker 64 of 129 49% 56 of 119 6 of 8 2 of 2 43 of 97 2 of 2 19 of 30
Mateusz Gamrot 65 of 143 45% 41 of 111 24 of 32 0 of 0 44 of 119 4 of 6 17 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Hooker 26 of 54 48% 22 of 50 2 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 28 2 of 2 15 of 24
Mateusz Gamrot 20 of 43 46% 9 of 28 11 of 15 0 of 0 15 of 38 1 of 1 4 of 4
2 Dan Hooker 11 of 17 64% 8 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 11 0 of 0 4 of 6
Mateusz Gamrot 17 of 34 50% 12 of 26 5 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 23 1 of 1 9 of 10
3 Dan Hooker 27 of 58 46% 26 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 0 27 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 28 of 66 42% 20 of 57 8 of 9 0 of 0 22 of 58 2 of 4 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot but is hesitant, acknowledging that Dan Hooker is a live underdog who can drop Gamrot, as many have. He believes Gamrot's relentless wrestling and pace will be too much, but Hooker's heart and striking make it close. He plans to bet on Hooker via the plus 3.5 round spread, expecting Hooker to win at least one round.

Will bet Dan Hooker +3.5 when prop drops
"I'm going to pick gamr ultimately I don't love it but I'm going to pick gamr because I do think the wrestling is just too [__] much."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes Gamrot's style is to spam takedowns (almost 20 per 15 minutes) and he expects Gamrot to lay on Hooker, limiting Hooker's offense. He points out that Hooker has not faced many wrestlers aside from Islam Makhachev, who submitted him in the first round. He acknowledges some arguments for Hooker based on damage scoring but believes Gamrot's takedown volume will be overwhelming. He says it's not a fight he's entirely looking forward to.

decision
"I got to go game Rod here gamr by decision makes most sense to me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Cody believes Hooker's pressure, durability, and fan-friendly style will sway judges, especially if Gamrot's wrestling is neutralized. He notes Gamrot has been knocked down in half his UFC fights and gasses late, while Hooker has proven cardio and a chin. Cody also mentions the possibility that Gamrot may be told not to wrestle, which would play into Hooker's hands.

"I got a hooker knocking out matus gameron"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Vreeland picks Gamrot, citing his relentless pressure and wrestling volume. He argues Hooker can stuff a few takedowns but cannot stop 15-20 attempts. He compares Gamrot's wrestling to Islam Makhachev's explosiveness, far superior to Jalin Turner's. He expects a grimy, grinding win for Gamrot.

"give me the gamer give me gamrot give me a russle heavy uh fight here over hooker"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Gamrot to win a split decision, but is hesitant due to Gamrot's sloppy striking and tendency to get dropped. He notes that Hooker has finishing upside and that Gamrot's path to victory is through grinding with takedowns and top control. Vreeland says the fight is a dog-or-pass situation and that he would not lay the juice on Gamrot.

"I'm picking gamrot to win you know like I think he's going to win a a a decision where in one round he's dropped he gets kicked with a body kick he gets dropped like but then he gets that …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Fox agrees with Gamrot, acknowledging Hooker's good performance against Turner but noting Gamrot's pressure and wrestling are a different level. He emphasizes Gamrot's relentless takedown threat and explosive entries, which he believes Hooker cannot handle over three rounds.

"I'm gonna go gamr too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The host picks Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and grappling. He notes Hooker's toughness and ability to land damage from defensive positions, which could sway judges. He expects Gamrot to win by decision, but warns the line is too wide given the narrow margin. He prefers the Gamrot by decision prop if at plus money.

Gamrot by decision (if +100 or better)
"the official prediction will be gamr and gamra by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul expects Gamrot to use his wrestling to control Hooker, taking him down repeatedly and grinding out a decision. He acknowledges Hooker's toughness but believes Gamrot's chain wrestling and takedown volume will be too much. Paul also notes that Hooker hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler recently and that Gamrot's 11-takedown performance against dos Anjos shows his commitment to wrestling.

"I like a gamr by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot over Dan Hooker. He notes Hooker's wins have asterisks due to injuries and long layoffs, and he questions Hooker's durability in a grappling match. He praises Gamrot's grappling, especially his low single-leg shots from distance that avoid knees, and his ability to transition without getting guillotined. He believes Gamrot will ragdoll Hooker, citing Hooker's poor takedown defense against Islam Makhachev. He also notes the fight is three rounds, which slightly helps Hooker, but still picks Gamrot.

"I'm going with matus gamr over Dan hooker... I think his grappling is going to be too good"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 57 of 102 55% 111 of 163 11 of 19 57% 0 0 7:01
Rafael dos Anjos 1 36 of 78 46% 39 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 19 of 34 55% 40 of 61 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:35
Rafael dos Anjos 1 11 of 19 57% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 10 of 18 55% 28 of 36 5 of 9 55% 0 0 2:40
Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 25 48% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 28 of 50 56% 43 of 66 4 of 6 66% 0 0 1:46
Rafael dos Anjos 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 57 of 102 55% 48 of 90 9 of 12 0 of 0 46 of 88 6 of 8 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 36 of 78 46% 24 of 61 5 of 9 7 of 8 26 of 67 7 of 8 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 19 of 34 55% 17 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 25 4 of 5 3 of 4
Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 19 57% 9 of 14 1 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 10 of 18 55% 6 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 25 48% 9 of 21 2 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 20 3 of 4 1 of 1
3 Mateusz Gamrot 28 of 50 56% 25 of 45 3 of 5 0 of 0 26 of 48 1 of 1 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 13 of 34 38% 6 of 26 2 of 2 5 of 6 10 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He believes RDA has no wrestling defense and will spend much of the fight on his back. He thinks Gamrot will shoot takedowns, grind, and win. He also mentions over 2.5 rounds as a good bet.

Over 2.5 rounds should be good.
"I'm very confident in gamrat here I think he is worth the price tag and uh we're going to see an age and evolution of the sport here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes that RDA is 39 and has struggled with wrestling, and that Gamrot has the cardio to shoot many takedowns. He expects the striking to be competitive, but Gamrot's takedowns will seal each round.

win by decision
"I'm going gam Rod here gamr to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody thinks RDA is being priced as if he's completely washed, but he believes RDA is better at 155 and that the Luque loss was due to size. He thinks RDA's striking and jiu-jitsu make him competitive, and at plus money, he's worth a look.

"I think it's RDA is a dogger pass spot for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel is confident Gamrot will win, citing his wrestling and low single takedowns. He notes RDA was outwrestled by Vicente Luque, who is not known for offensive wrestling, and expects Gamrot to dominate on the ground. However, he dislikes the minus 450 price and says he would only bet if the price improves.

"I got gamr here it's just this price is terrible if this price goes down a little bit I mean gamr should be I say should be a safe parlay"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot is a high-level wrestler who should be too strong, fast, and young for the aging dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has shown declining takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Vicente Luque where he was controlled for 11 minutes. Gamrot will likely get the fight to the ground and grind on dos Anjos, wearing him down. I expect Gamrot to win a decision, as finishing a durable veteran like dos Anjos is tough. The prop 'Gamrot by decision' is the best way to attack this fight without taking too much chalk.

Gamrot by decision, over 2.5 rounds
"gamrat more than worthy at minus 400 here I think he's going to be too strong too fast uh obviously younger uh and the better overall wrestler here which will allow him to get this fight to the ground and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul disagrees, pointing out that RDA has historically struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down repeatedly. He thinks Gamrot's chain wrestling, cardio, and durability will overwhelm RDA, who will likely lose the first two rounds and be unable to come back.

"I got to go with matus gamron"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his superior technical wrestling, strength, and versatility compared to RDA. He notes the three-round format benefits Gamrot's pace, and that RDA is 39 and has talked about retirement. He also highlights that Gamrot trains with Dustin Poirier, which should help his preparation. He predicts Gamrot will ragdoll RDA and win a decision or late finish.

"I'm going to go with Matas gam over rapael Doos"
WIN vs Rafael Fiziev
TKO (knee injury) R2 2:03 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 32 56% 19 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 16 of 40 40% 17 of 42 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 16 of 27 59% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 2 of 5 40% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 32 56% 4 of 14 12 of 16 2 of 2 18 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 16 of 40 40% 11 of 31 2 of 5 3 of 4 13 of 35 1 of 1 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 16 of 27 59% 4 of 11 10 of 14 2 of 2 16 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 12 of 34 35% 7 of 25 2 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 2 of 5 40% 0 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo picks Fiziev for the first time against Gamrot. He notes Fiziev is the better striker and has shown a willingness to go to war. He thinks over five rounds, Fiziev will eventually catch Gamrot. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling and durability, and says Gamrot at the current moneyline is great value.

Gamrot at current moneyline is great value
"the reality is physiov probably gonna win this fight he is gonna be my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev to win by decision, noting he would max-bet Fiziev if it were a three-round fight. He praises Fiziev's striking power and improvement, but worries about his cardio in the championship rounds. He expects Fiziev to stuff takedowns early and bank the first three rounds, possibly knocking Gamrot down. He acknowledges Gamrot's relentless pace and never-slow-down cardio could make it close late.

"I'm gonna take physio to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Cody leans towards Gamrot as a live underdog, emphasizing that Fiziev's cardio fades in later rounds and Gamrot's wrestling can exploit that. He notes Gamrot has never been finished and has a strong chin, but acknowledges Fiziev's striking advantage early. He prefers to bet Gamrot live at a better price rather than pre-fight.

Prefers live betting on Gamrot at plus money; mentions Gamrot's takedown ability and Fiziev's fatigue in later rounds.
"I'm leaning right now towards gamrod... I would much rather just hit this live a bigger plus money price tag on the two's gamron."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel sees this as a very close fight that could go either way, so he leans toward the underdog. He highlights Gamrot's relentless takedown attempts (21 vs. Tsarukyan, 19 vs. Dern) and his unique low-single wrestling style that Fiziev hasn't faced. He worries Fiziev may fade in the later rounds under constant grappling pressure, leading to Gamrot taking over in rounds 3-5. He acknowledges Fiziev's athleticism and takedown defense but thinks the volume of attempts will eventually pay off.

plus 130 underdog value; hopes line moves to plus 135
"I'm going to have to go with the plus 130 hopefully maybe even a plus 135 or a plus 40 later on in the week on gamr"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Lucrative James picks Fiziev, citing his takedown defense and Muay Thai balance to stuff Gamrot's single-leg attempts. He believes Fiziev will land critical damage on the feet and potentially finish Gamrot. Even if it goes late, he thinks Gamrot will be too damaged to capitalize on his cardio edge. He placed 3 units on Fiziev at -136.

3 units at -136
"I like Fiziev in this spot... I think he's going to defend the takedowns and knock out Gamrot on the feet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The host picks Gamrot as an underdog, reasoning that Fiziev fades in later rounds while Gamrot has proven cardio and grappling over five rounds. He notes Fiziev's 90% takedown defense but believes Gamrot's relentless pressure and chain wrestling will wear him down, leading to a decision win in rounds 3-5. The host also mentions the over 4.5 rounds as a good prop.

over 4.5 rounds
"give me the underdog shot on the Polish fighter here and Montage camera to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Paul leans slightly towards Fiziev, citing his striking advantage and improved takedown defense early. He worries about Gamrot's low volume and that judges may not reward takedowns without damage. However, he is not confident enough to bet pre-fight and will wait for weigh-ins.

"I'm leaning ever so slightly to physive but um I mean I'm gonna wait for weigh-ins and and all of that it's not a fight that I feel like I need to get money on."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, criticizing Mateusz Gamrot's striking as limited to a one-two and takedown attempts. He believes Fiziev's body kicks and counter shots will be effective, and predicts a first or second round TKO. He notes Fiziev's strength and low center of gravity, and argues that the 'secret better half' of lightweight (including Fiziev) tends to beat grapplers like Gamrot. He acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling but thinks Fiziev's danger will prevail.

first or second round TKO
"I'm going for Raphael physiov I just can't unsee it... I think physio is actually going to get a first or second round TKO and make a statement against gamrot"
WIN vs Jalin Turner
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 29 of 42 69% 89 of 109 4 of 12 33% 0 0 6:52
Jalin Turner 1 40 of 97 41% 62 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 9 of 14 64% 14 of 22 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:26
Jalin Turner 1 12 of 31 38% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 13 of 17 76% 60 of 66 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:35
Jalin Turner 0 18 of 48 37% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 7 of 11 63% 15 of 21 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:51
Jalin Turner 0 10 of 18 55% 20 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 29 of 42 69% 18 of 30 2 of 3 9 of 9 21 of 32 2 of 2 6 of 8
Jalin Turner 40 of 97 41% 23 of 72 14 of 22 3 of 3 33 of 90 4 of 4 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 9 of 14 64% 4 of 8 0 of 1 5 of 5 6 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1
Jalin Turner 12 of 31 38% 8 of 24 4 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 28 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 13 of 17 76% 7 of 11 2 of 2 4 of 4 11 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Jalin Turner 18 of 48 37% 11 of 37 4 of 8 3 of 3 16 of 46 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Mateusz Gamrot 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 5
Jalin Turner 10 of 18 55% 4 of 11 6 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo is confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Jalin Turner has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Gamrot's speed and ankle picks will be too much. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Gamrot at -190.

"I still think gamron's gonna win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his wrestling machine style with high takedown volume. He notes Turner's takedown defense is not elite and Gamrot has the cardio to attempt many takedowns. He predicts a decision win for Gamrot, though he acknowledges Turner's power and submission threat.

"I'm gonna take matteus gamer out to win this fight I'm gonna take him to win this fight I'll say bye decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody is tempted by Turner as an underdog. He sees a path for Turner if he can keep the fight standing and use his reach. He notes Gamrot's wrestling is elite but that he has been in close fights and can fatigue. He says if he takes Turner, he'll be the PRP pick.

Would be the PRP pick if he goes with Turner
"I'm super tempted to pull the underdog trigger man"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor leans Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and scrambling ability. He notes Turner's dangerous striking and guillotine threats, but believes Gamrot's takedowns and top control will neutralize Turner's offense. He mentions Turner's tendency to play guard rather than explode up, which may allow Gamrot to hold him down. However, he acknowledges Turner's one-shot knockout power makes this risky.

Mentions Gamrot opened -240, now -217; Turner +205 to +176.
"I do think Gamrot is actually going to finally get some top time in this fight."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Jacob picks Mateusz Gamrot, praising his relentless pressure and unique ankle pick takedowns. He believes Turner will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Gamrot will drown him. Jacob has hedges with Turner by knockout but is confident in Gamrot.

Jalin Turner by knockout (hedge)
"gameron is just so so relentless he gets better as the fights go on as well he is just going to drown this kid Jalen"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot is a high-level scrambler and wrestler who wants to drag fights to the ground. Turner is dangerous with submissions but has questionable takedown defense and struggles off his back. Gamrot will secure takedowns and grind out a decision victory.

"I think the expertise the the experience and the scrambling ability of gamra will keep him safe again against a dangerous finishing prowess of Jalen Turner and I think that we'll see gamrod start to take over the longer that …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul picks Gamrot but is cautious. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling will be enough to secure takedowns and win rounds, but he has questions about Turner's cardio and reach. He expects a close fight and is not confident in the pick.

"I'm gonna pick gamrat but uh another fight that I'm you know very cautious about"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing Turner's loss to Matt Frevola via grappling. He believes Gamrot can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win a 30-27 decision, noting Turner's preparation for a striker.

"I've got to go with Matthias gamrot here over Jalen Turner... I think gamrock's gonna get this one done using his grappling to a 30-27 unanimous decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane also leans Gamrot, emphasizing his toughness and wrestling. He notes Turner's danger in transitions and his ability to land fight-ending strikes, but believes Gamrot's pressure and scrambling will wear Turner down. He points out that Turner's takedown defense is inconsistent and that Gamrot's low single may bypass Turner's guillotine attempts.

"This is a better fight for Gamrot than it is for Turner."
LOSS vs Beneil Dariush
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29-28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Beneil Dariush 1 59 of 130 45% 67 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Mateusz Gamrot 0 33 of 81 40% 38 of 86 4 of 19 21% 0 0 2:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Beneil Dariush 0 9 of 26 34% 13 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Mateusz Gamrot 0 9 of 13 69% 13 of 17 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:22
2 Beneil Dariush 0 31 of 67 46% 32 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Mateusz Gamrot 0 15 of 47 31% 15 of 47 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:10
3 Beneil Dariush 1 19 of 37 51% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Mateusz Gamrot 0 9 of 21 42% 10 of 22 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Beneil Dariush 59 of 130 45% 35 of 100 15 of 21 9 of 9 52 of 121 2 of 3 5 of 6
Mateusz Gamrot 33 of 81 40% 22 of 67 9 of 12 2 of 2 29 of 76 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Beneil Dariush 9 of 26 34% 2 of 16 4 of 7 3 of 3 7 of 23 1 of 2 1 of 1
Mateusz Gamrot 9 of 13 69% 8 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 9 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Beneil Dariush 31 of 67 46% 19 of 53 8 of 10 4 of 4 27 of 62 0 of 0 4 of 5
Mateusz Gamrot 15 of 47 31% 9 of 40 4 of 5 2 of 2 14 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Beneil Dariush 19 of 37 51% 14 of 31 3 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 9 of 21 42% 5 of 16 4 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Beneil Dariush vs. Mateusz Gamrot
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gamrot (-195), Dariush (+165)

Round 1
Like every other main card tilt, this lightweight affair pitting Dariush (21-4-1, 15-4-1 UFC) against Gamrot (21-1, 1 NC; 4-1 UFC) has nearly immediate championship implications, as the victor could very likely be next in line for the winner of the headliner a few fights from now. Before they can look ahead, they have to get past the other, and they will do so under the watchful eye of referee Dan Movahedi. The two bump fists, and after a few seconds to find their feet in the cage, Dariush slings a pair of quick kicks. Dariush rushes forward with a high kick, and Gamrot attacks for a takedown. A furious scramble ensues, and Gamrot lowers Dariush down but finds himself in leglock danger. Dariush attempts to sweep with this, but the two end up back on their feet. Gamrot pushes him to the wall, but he releases his foe and they reset. The right ear of Gamrot is split, and it starts to bleed, but he pays it no mind. Dariush attacks with a few low kicks, and Gamrot catches a body kick that follows and dumps Dariush to the mat. Dariush pursues a leglock as soon as they hit the ground, and he considers a heel hook but is on the wrong side without the right leverage to lock it down. “Gamer” pulls his leg out and stands up, and Dariush follows him. Gamrot stays tightly pressed to his opponent, before releasing him and backing off. An odd takedown entry allows Gamrot to get his hands on Dariush and drag the fight down, but Dariush defends with an awkward position to stop it. Dariush implores the referee to break them up, so Gamrot answers this by taking Dariush’s legs out beneath him. The Polish fighter cannot keep Dariush down, so he backs off and lets Dariush kick him in the side. On the kick, Gamrot grabs it, and he gives a shove but cannot ground Dariush this time. They trade kicks, and Gamrot slips on the way out before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot

Round 2
Sherdog encountered some technical difficulties at the beginning of this round, and we apologize for the inconvenience. We resume the action at the beginning of Round 2. The lightweights touch ‘em up, and Gamrot leans forward into a punch and has a strange reaction to it, but it could have been from a possible takedown setup. Gamrot resets and crashes forward for an authentic try, and Dariush tosses him aside and lets Gamrot get his footing again. Dariush kicks the body and gets punched in the head for his effort, and Gamrot counters another kick with an overhand right. Dariush pushes a jab out, and he sets up a high kick that glances off the shoulder. The lightweights clash legs at the same time, and Dariush walks forward to engage only to get sniped with a jab. Gamrot dives down to the ankle to take the fight down, and Dariush pulls his leg away and backs away. Dariush intercepts his opponent with a stern knee, and he targets the body with his shin as his legs continue to be his best weapon. A Gamrot takedown is stuffed, and Dariush makes him pay by chopping at his lead leg. The single strikes come back and forth, and Gamrot darts forward to throw a few in a bundle, but Dariush slips and rips with a left hand. The former KSW champ slowly moves forward without pulling the trigger, and he is forced to block a high kick that rolls off his shoulder. Dariush scoops up an uppercut and gets backed off with an overhand right, and Gamrot blitzes him with a knee. Gamrot sprints at his foe for one final takedown, and the scramble that ensues ends the round with both men on their seats.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dariush

Round 3
The top lightweights meet in the middle and offer half-hearted gloved touch that is more of a jab, and Gamrot claims the center of the cage. Gamrot punches his way into a takedown entry, but the veteran savvy of Dariush smoothly flows with the attempt and forces Gamrot to release his grip and stand back up. Dariush lets him have it with a flush kick to the body, and he lets go with a subsequent pair of kicks to the upper thigh. As Gamrot replies with a head kick try, Dariush pops him with a right hook. Gamrot comes up short with another high kick, and Dariush sees his strikes coming and is seemingly one step ahead of the offense. Dariush lifts up a knee that bounces off the midsection when Gamrot strides forward, and Gamrot continues to give chase no matter what he absorbs. The crowd appears distracted with the drama outside the cage, and they rain down a shower of boos not targeting the fighters but at that individual or individuals. As they are paying attention to something out of the cage, Gamrot leaps forward to snatch up Dariush’s lead leg and look for a takedown, but the attempt fails and Dariush gains his balance and hops away. Gamrot loops a right hand over the top, but it is one-and-done when Dariush backpedals. Dariush prepares a left-hand counter for when Gamrot walks into his range, and he times a spectacular blow that knocks Gamrot clean off his feet. The recoverability of Gamrot is solid, as he somersaults back and gets right back into action following the flash knockdown. Gamrot punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Dariush smoothly follows him all the way through to get to his knees and back up without spending much time on his back. The fight comes to an end with one final exchange of alternating punches, and the lightweights hug it out after the bell sounds. It remains to be seen if the victor here has done enough to earn a crack at the triumphant man of the main event, a shot which also hinges on the result of that match itself.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)

The Official Result
Beneil Dariush def. Mateusz Gamrot via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot confidently, stating he is better everywhere than Dariush. He highlights Gamrot's wrestling, power, cardio, and pace, and notes that Dariush has been waiting for a title shot while Gamrot has been active. He has 2 units on Gamrot at -185 and expects the line to move.

"gamrod's a clear pick his minus 185 odds right now are solid those are definitely going to move I got two units on that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Gamrot to win by knockout in the second round. He questions Dariush's chin (three knockout losses) and believes Gamrot's volume and deceptive power will catch him. He expects the fight to play out mostly on the feet, with Gamrot dictating the range. He notes Dariush's striking is underrated but trusts Gamrot to land a finishing shot.

second round knockout
"I think gamra knocks him out and uh moves up these rankings so I like gamrod here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Cody thinks Gamrot is the pick, noting his wrestling pedigree and takedown defense. He believes Gamrot's pressure and pace will be key, and that Dariush may struggle with cardio. Cody acknowledges Dariush is a live underdog but feels Gamrot is getting more comfortable and should put on a clean performance. He is not super high on Gamrot this week because Dariush could spoil.

"the pick is gamma and I'm gonna ride with him"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor picks Gamrot, citing his incredible pace and cardio, which he believes will wear down Dariush over three rounds. He notes that Dariush often gasses after going berserk, and Gamrot's ability to keep up high-intensity scrambles will exploit that. However, he acknowledges that Dariush could win early if he lands a big shot or imposes his grappling.

"I'm gonna take Gamrot because he's got an incredible pace... he has a way of sort of sucking some of the life out of the fight on the feet."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mateusz Gamrot. He praises Gamrot's unorthodox low single leg takedown and relentless pressure, noting he attempted 21 takedowns against Arman Tsarukyan. Levi is concerned about Dariush's recent broken ankle and whether he will be fully recovered. He thinks Dariush has the better striking, especially body kicks, but worries that Gamrot's wrestling and scrambling could overwhelm Dariush over three rounds. Levi does not bet this fight.

"I'm gonna slightly lean towards gamroth though but I mean I can't blame someone for taking a plus 165 on their use."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot has shown he can grapple with high-level fighters like Arman Tsarukyan. Dariush's reckless style may leave him open to counters. Gamrot is the cleaner striker and has cardio advantage. The under 2.5 at +160 or Gamrot inside the distance at +250 are intriguing. A one-unit shot on the under is the play.

Under 2.5 rounds at +160; Gamrot inside the distance at +250; Gamrot by KO at +500
"the under two and a half at plus 160 which is the last line I saw that has my Intrigue but even uh gamrod inside the distance at plus 250 I think is a great line as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul is torn but leans Gamrot, citing that wrestling may be negated in the big cage and that Gamrot has speed and grappling advantages. He mentions Dariush's chin issues from the past and that Gamrot's power could be a factor. Paul is not sure about betting but picks Gamrot.

"gamrat's the pick for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot over Beneil Dariush. He questions the quality of Dariush's wins (e.g., Ferguson) and notes Dariush's long layoff due to a broken leg. He believes Gamrot's youth, momentum, and grappling will overwhelm Dariush, predicting a decision win with some dangerous moments.

"I'm going with Matteo Shamrock now"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Zane picks Dariush, arguing that Dariush's well-rounded game and ability to control the fight early will give him an edge. He notes that Dariush is a hell of a grappler and can match Gamrot's wrestling, and that Gamrot's takedowns don't lead to control. He admits it's a close fight and that Dariush's tendency to get hurt is a concern, but he thinks Dariush can win a decision or finish.

"I'll take the flyer on Dariush. I think Dariush is gonna probably have a really good round one."
Arman Tsarukyan - Fight History
WIN vs Dan Hooker
Submission R2 3:34 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 42 of 60 70% 69 of 89 2 of 4 50% 1 0 6:02
Dan Hooker 0 10 of 33 30% 17 of 41 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 19 of 30 63% 32 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:16
Dan Hooker 0 5 of 20 25% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 23 of 30 76% 37 of 44 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:46
Dan Hooker 0 5 of 13 38% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 42 of 60 70% 33 of 49 3 of 5 6 of 6 18 of 31 2 of 2 22 of 27
Dan Hooker 10 of 33 30% 3 of 20 6 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 30 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 19 of 30 63% 12 of 22 2 of 3 5 of 5 15 of 26 2 of 2 2 of 2
Dan Hooker 5 of 20 25% 2 of 13 2 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Arman Tsarukyan 23 of 30 76% 21 of 27 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 25
Dan Hooker 5 of 13 38% 1 of 7 4 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo leans Arman Tsarukyan over Dan Hooker, but calls the -550 odds insane. He notes Tsarukyan's wrestling and striking are elite, but Hooker has heart and takedown defense, as seen against Gamrot. Tsarukyan should get takedowns and control Hooker, but Hooker could make it a dogfight. Angelo suggests Hooker at +5.5 is a decent bet.

Minus 550 is insane; Dan Hooker at plus five and a half seems like it could be a decent bet.
"I have to slightly lean Arman Sooqi because of the wrestling upside, but minus 550 is insane."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan (Magomed Ankalaev) by third-round KO, citing his championship caliber and youth. He notes Hooker's struggles against top competition and expects Ankalaev to finish him via TKO on the mat or a big shot on the feet.

third round KO
"I'm going to take Magomed Ankalaev to win this fight and win it by third round KO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody picks Arman Tsarukyan but is hesitant due to the betting line. He notes Arman has the grappling edge and is younger, but Dan Hooker thrives in five-round fights and has a decent get-up game. Cody worries about Arman's past fatigue and the possibility of judges favoring damage over control time in Qatar. He suggests hedging after the first round if Hooker is still competitive.

"I got Arman Sukian, but I'm not loving the number I'm getting here, Paul."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Connor picks Tsarukyan as a knee-jerk reaction, citing his elite grappling and top control. He notes Hooker's vulnerability to early finishes and slow starts, but acknowledges Hooker's toughness and 25% chance of a KO. Connor emphasizes Tsarukyan's bullying style and potential to finish quickly on the ground.

Tsarukyan by submission or early KO; Hooker has 25% chance to clip him
"I'm picking Suruken, but I still like this fight. You know, I think, I guess all of this is to say that like, I think you have to pick Suruken as just sort of a knee-jerk reaction to this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Lucrative James picks Arman Tsarukyan despite rooting for Dan Hooker. He cites Arman's elite wrestling as the key factor, noting Hooker's historical struggles with grapplers. He mentions Arman's age advantage (29 vs 35), recent training with the Russian Olympic wrestling team, and improved submission game. He also notes Hooker's inactivity and hand surgery concerns. However, he acknowledges Hooker's dangerous striking and hopes for an upset.

submission prop mentioned as potentially live
"I do think Arman Surukin is going to win this matchup. That would be my pick gun to my head."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan is a top lightweight with elite wrestling and cardio. Hooker is durable but has taken a lot of damage. Tsarukyan should dominate with grappling and pressure, winning by decision or late finish. The method is uncertain but the win is solid.

"I think Sukian wins. I think he wins at a pretty decent clip."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Paul leans towards Dan Hooker as a plus money underdog, citing value at plus 420. He acknowledges Arman's takedowns are the path of least resistance against Hooker, but believes Hooker can hang around and make it competitive. Paul mentions that if forced to bet one side right now, he'd take Hooker, but he doesn't have to bet it.

"I'd probably take this plus 420 on Dan Hooker."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan over Dan Hooker, citing Arman's superior grappling and ability to maintain dominant positions. He notes Hooker's broken arms and believes Arman will finish him via ground and pound in round two or three. He acknowledges Hooker's underrated takedown defense but trusts Arman's improvement.

second or third round mount ground and pound TKO
"I'm going to go with Arman Tsarukyan here over Dan Hooker."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Tsarukyan due to his superior wrestling and top control. He notes Hooker's tendency to start slow and get overwhelmed, but also mentions Hooker's durability and ability to make fights competitive over five rounds. Zane highlights Tsarukyan's power and speed as key factors.

Tsarukyan by finish; Hooker could make it a war
"I fully believe that Armand Suruken can do both of those things. You know, he has the power to do that, to do either, to just go out and flatten Hooker or to go out, take him down and break …"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 19 of 37 51% 33 of 53 0 of 0 --- 4 1 2:32
Charles Oliveira 0 49 of 83 59% 75 of 117 2 of 4 50% 0 1 8:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 9 of 11 81% 12 of 14 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:44
Charles Oliveira 0 9 of 16 56% 19 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:42
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 5 of 9 55% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Charles Oliveira 0 22 of 36 61% 38 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:49
3 Arman Tsarukyan 0 5 of 17 29% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:48
Charles Oliveira 0 18 of 31 58% 18 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 19 of 37 51% 11 of 22 5 of 9 3 of 6 7 of 24 6 of 6 6 of 7
Charles Oliveira 49 of 83 59% 37 of 69 10 of 11 2 of 3 23 of 50 3 of 4 23 of 29
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 9 of 11 81% 5 of 6 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 4 2 of 2 4 of 5
Charles Oliveira 9 of 16 56% 6 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 5 of 7
2 Arman Tsarukyan 5 of 9 55% 4 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 2
Charles Oliveira 22 of 36 61% 19 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 1 9 of 18 1 of 2 12 of 16
3 Arman Tsarukyan 5 of 17 29% 2 of 10 3 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 14 3 of 3 0 of 0
Charles Oliveira 18 of 31 58% 12 of 25 5 of 5 1 of 1 11 of 24 1 of 1 6 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan, comparing him to Islam Makhachev with slightly better striking and slightly worse wrestling. He believes Tsarukyan's wrestling will be too much for Oliveira, similar to how Islam submitted him. He notes the public heavily favors Oliveira but the oddsmakers have Tsarukyan as favorite for a reason.

"I think Armen is basically Islam I think he's got slightly better striking slightly worse wrestling and I think he wins here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody believes Charles Oliveira's defensive flaws will be exposed. He notes Oliveira takes a lot of damage and relies on comebacks, which is unsustainable. Tsarukyan is a strong wrestler with good takedown defense (only taken down by Islam Makhachev and a former KSW champion). Cody thinks Oliveira won't be able to take Tsarukyan down, forcing a striking battle where Tsarukyan's power and youth will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's impressive physique and recent knockout of Beneil Dariush. Cody sees Tsarukyan as the fresher, ascending fighter who will eventually land a big right hand and finish Oliveira.

"I do favor Armen suuki to get the job done."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Vreeland picks Arman Tsarukyan, agreeing with guest Giani that Tsarukyan's wrestling and pressure will be key. He notes that Tsarukyan is younger, has a comparable style to Islam Makhachev, and will not hesitate to follow Oliveira to the ground. Vreeland believes Oliveira's submission threat is real but Tsarukyan's top control and ground-and-pound will win rounds.

"I'm on Arman as well"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Vreeland picks Arman Tsarukyan, noting that the line is a bit wide but he likes Tsarukyan's youth and finishing ability. He mentions that Tsarukyan's grappling and wrestling are top-notch, and that Oliveira will struggle to get takedowns. He also notes that Tsarukyan has power on the feet and less mileage than Oliveira.

"I'm taking San excuse me as well I thought you were going Charlie Alives this is the one I differing on yeah okay maybe won't differ in any no I'll take cin much younger and is uh you know been …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Jeff Fox picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing that the only fighters who have given Oliveira trouble are exceptional wrestlers. He notes that Oliveira's takedown game won't be enough against Tsarukyan's wrestling, and that Tsarukyan's kickboxing will take over. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's scrambles with Islam Makhachev on short notice show his level.

"I am going to go with Arman cuki in uh largely because if you look at the type of people who have ever given him trouble it's always exceptional wrestlers"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He mentions that bookmakers expect Arman Tsarukyan to win as a decent favorite, and that if he wins, a rematch with Islam Makhachev is likely. He calls it a banger but does not state his own prediction.

"if Arman Tsarukyan wins that fight which the bookmakers expect him to do as a decent sized favorite then you already know they're going to do the Islam rematch"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan will nullify Oliveira's grappling and his submission defense will keep Oliveira in bad positions. Tsarukyan's big power on the feet will find Oliveira's chin and knock him out within two rounds.

knockout within two rounds
"I ultimately think it's going to be sarin's big Power on his feet that eventually finds the chin of Oliva and he knocks him out within two rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul sees Tsarukyan as the fresher fighter with fewer miles. He notes that Tsarukyan's short-notice fight against Islam Makhachev was competitive and looks good in hindsight. Paul points out that Tsarukyan has a good chin and has only been knocked out once, early in his career. He expects Charles to come out hot and have early success, but Tsarukyan will weather the storm and take over. Paul also mentions that if Tsarukyan scores takedowns, he must be careful of Oliveira's guard, but he believes Tsarukyan's youth and power will be the difference.

"I get that... I expect Charles to probably come out hot have some real success early but outside of getting knocked out super super early... hasn't been knocked out... I think suin is the fresher guy in shape headed upwards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira to submit Arman Tsarukyan via guillotine in round one. He believes Oliveira will wobble Tsarukyan with a left hook, prompting a panicked takedown attempt that Oliveira will capitalize on. He dismisses Tsarukyan's grappling credentials, noting he was wobbled by Walkin Silva.

guillotine round one
"Charles Ola guillotining the [ __ ] out of you badly after rocking you with a left hook."
KO (knee and punches) R1 1:04 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Beneil Dariush 1 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Beneil Dariush 1 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Beneil Dariush 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 2 of 2 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Beneil Dariush 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 2 of 2 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tsarukyan (-278), Dariush (+225)

Round 1
Lightweights close the show in the five-round headliner, where Dariush (22-5-1, 16-5-1 UFC) sets his sights on Tsarukyan (20-3, 7-2 UFC) at 155 pounds. Tsarukyan has rattled off eight victories across his past nine outings.
For more on the American Top Team standout, see “Rivalries: Arman Tsarukyan” in Features
. Smith administers the law and order once the Octagon door closes. They touch gloves to get us started in the final bout of the night. Dariush fires an inside leg kick, eats a jab and then attacks the leg again.
Tsarukyan steps forward with a knee and follows it with a brutal right hook, dropping Dariush where he stands. He then dives in with punches and pounds Dariush unconscious. A signature victory for the young lightweight contender
.

The Official Result
Arman Tsarukyan def. Beneil Dariush—KO (Punches) 1:04 R1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing youth, cardio, and durability advantages. He notes Dariush has been finished in all five of his losses, and that Tsarukyan's relentless pace will break him down in the later rounds. He predicts a third-round TKO, as Tsarukyan's ground and pound and big shots will eventually finish Dariush.

third round TKO
"I see suruki going out there and getting a third round TKO in this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody picks Tsarukyan but acknowledges Dariush's skills and path to victory. He notes Dariush's cardio, high ring IQ, and BJJ black belt, but thinks Tsarukyan's speed and youth are decisive. He mentions Tsarukyan's five-round experience and that he's only getting better. He doesn't love the money line but expects Tsarukyan to win, possibly by finish.

decision props considered but not bet
"I think darush is a lot a bigger like the it's a good plus money for sure and he's he he I think he's gonna give a better account of himself than that might dictate but it's not enough for …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Lucrative James picks Beneil Dariush, stating that the line is wide and disrespectful at +240. He believes Dariush can defend takedowns and scramble well, and is the better striker. He notes that Tsarukyan's youth and tenacity could be a factor in a five-round fight, but still sees Dariush as the side. He would go heavy on Dariush if it were a three-round fight.

"I definitely think benil darush is wied I think that darus is going to be able to defend the takedowns early"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan has high-level wrestling and improving striking, and he is expected to control the fight with his grappling and striking advantage. However, Dariush is a live underdog with great scrambling and BJJ, making the fight closer than the odds suggest. Tsarukyan is predicted to win by decision over 3.5 rounds, but a small underdog shot on Dariush is also recommended due to value.

over 3.5 rounds, decision win predicted, half unit shot on Dariush mentioned
"prediction is suin but I am not touching that chalk darush is way more alive than plus 260 indicates"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul thinks Tsarukyan is the rightful favorite due to a sizable speed advantage and good enough grappling to avoid submissions. He notes the line is wide but doesn't see much value at -310. He mentions Tsarukyan's speed in striking and entrances/exits as the biggest difference. He is not lining up to bet it but picks Tsarukyan.

"I think arman's a rightful favorite not one that I'm lining up to uh to go bet this week but suian is the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan, believing his youth, wrestling, and striking will be too much for Beneil Dariush. He notes Tsarukyan's reach advantage and ability to win the leg kick battle. He predicts Tsarukyan will break Dariush down and win by TKO in the fourth round.

TKO in fourth round
"I'm going Arman Tsarukyan... I think he can pick at Dariush, annoy him, frustrate him, hurt him to the body and legs, break him down and I think he beats him by TKO in the fourth round."
WIN vs Joaquim Silva
TKO (punches) R3 3:25 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 80 of 115 69% 134 of 175 4 of 5 80% 0 0 9:01
Joaquim Silva 0 23 of 41 56% 77 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 12 of 13 92% 28 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:26
Joaquim Silva 0 2 of 3 66% 27 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 33 of 57 57% 39 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:47
Joaquim Silva 0 16 of 30 53% 41 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Arman Tsarukyan 0 35 of 45 77% 67 of 83 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:48
Joaquim Silva 0 5 of 8 62% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 80 of 115 69% 64 of 95 13 of 17 3 of 3 32 of 64 7 of 8 41 of 43
Joaquim Silva 23 of 41 56% 11 of 27 9 of 11 3 of 3 11 of 25 10 of 13 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 12 of 13 92% 9 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 9
Joaquim Silva 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2
2 Arman Tsarukyan 33 of 57 57% 23 of 43 7 of 11 3 of 3 23 of 46 6 of 7 4 of 4
Joaquim Silva 16 of 30 53% 8 of 20 6 of 8 2 of 2 8 of 19 7 of 10 1 of 1
3 Arman Tsarukyan 35 of 45 77% 32 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 0 28 of 30
Joaquim Silva 5 of 8 62% 2 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jun 11, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo is extremely confident in Arman Tsarukyan, calling him a massive favorite. He expects Tsarukyan to dominate with relentless wrestling, avoiding Silva's submissions. Silva has knockout power but will be defending takedowns the entire time. Angelo says there is no reason to overcomplicate this pick.

"Armin is a minus 1100 favorite there is no reason to over complicate this armin's gonna dominate with the wrestling he's gonna avoid the submissions"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by first-round knockout. He calls this an astronomical step down in competition for Tsarukyan, who has fought top-tier opponents like Islam Makhachev and Mateusz Gamrot. Brady believes Tsarukyan will get takedowns at will, as Silva's takedown defense and durability are poor. He expects a vicious finish, either by knockout on the feet or TKO via ground and pound, similar to Tsarukyan's win over Joel Alvarez. Brady questions why this fight was even made.

"I think saruki and not only wins this fight but wins it in uh vicious fashion and probably a first round finish."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody sees this as a massive step down for Tsarukyan, who has been fighting elite competition. He expects Tsarukyan to win easily, likely by TKO in the second round, as Tsarukyan has a traditional Russian grinding style that breaks down lesser opponents. He notes Silva is a banger with knockout power but poor takedown defense, and at 34, his skills aren't improving. Cody thinks Tsarukyan will take him down and finish him in the second round.

Tsarukyan wins in round 2 at +300; mentions prop hunting
"I would think in the second round he's not necessarily like I need to kill you in the first round as much as he's got that traditional Russian style where he's gonna grind on you and lean on you and …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Connor agrees with Zane, calling Tsarukyan a 'gimme matchup' for Silva. He highlights Tsarukyan's elite grappling and physicality, and notes that Silva's only path to victory is an early knockout. Connor is confident Tsarukyan will dominate with his wrestling and pressure.

"This is a gimme matchup, but to layup."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by knockout in round one or two. He notes Tsarukyan's improved striking and power, and expects a dominant performance. He compares it to the Giagos fight where Tsarukyan finished quickly, rather than the Fiziev fight which was more competitive. He respects Silva but sees a clear mismatch.

knockout round 1, knockout round 2
"I like The Knockout round one for most of what I'm gonna put down on it and then some knockout round two"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan can dominate Silva anywhere and will finish him. He is a solid grappler with improving striking and cardio. Silva is a BJJ black belt but prefers striking and has been knocked out in recent fights. Tsarukyan should make an emphatic statement. The pick is Tsarukyan inside the distance rather than the heavy moneyline.

Tsarukyan inside the distance
"I'll be looking at that walk uh sarukian inside the distance line rather than taking the minus 1000... give me sarukin via KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul agrees Tsarukyan is a justifiable massive favorite, but he doesn't see an edge in betting the moneyline at -1000. He prefers to chase a prop or just avoid the fight entirely. He notes that Tsarukyan is 26, improving, and has gone five rounds before, while Silva is a banger with nothing to lose but likely gets taken down and finished.

suggests chasing a prop or avoiding the fight; mentions Tsarukyan by second round TKO
"you definitely gotta chase a prop here or just don't like I mean I probably just want that this fight at all because that's just not how I roll"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan easily, calling it a straightforward matchup. He notes Silva has been KO'd by Ricky Glenn and Nazareno Malegarie, and hasn't had a first-round finish since 2014. He expects Tsarukyan to stay calm, out-strike Silva, and get a late TKO.

"I'm going to be going with Armand sarukian I reckon he wins this matchup pretty easily"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Zane sees this as a complete stylistic layup for Tsarukyan. He notes that Tsarukyan is one of the best wrestler-grapplers in the sport, while Silva is a dynamic but limited striker who struggles against physical pressure. Zane believes Tsarukyan will bully Silva on the feet and take him down at will, making Silva's only chance a flying knee in the first minute.

"It's a layup. Like it is a complete stylistic layup."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 34 of 81 41% 50 of 105 7 of 21 33% 0 0 9:25
Damir Ismagulov 0 36 of 86 41% 51 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 9 of 23 39% 15 of 29 1 of 10 10% 0 0 3:04
Damir Ismagulov 0 13 of 26 50% 24 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 12 of 27 44% 18 of 35 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:24
Damir Ismagulov 0 11 of 28 39% 13 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Arman Tsarukyan 0 13 of 31 41% 17 of 41 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:57
Damir Ismagulov 0 12 of 32 37% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 34 of 81 41% 14 of 57 12 of 15 8 of 9 31 of 76 2 of 4 1 of 1
Damir Ismagulov 36 of 86 41% 18 of 60 15 of 21 3 of 5 26 of 74 10 of 11 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 9 of 23 39% 2 of 14 3 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 13 of 26 50% 7 of 18 4 of 5 2 of 3 13 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Arman Tsarukyan 12 of 27 44% 7 of 21 3 of 3 2 of 3 9 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 1
Damir Ismagulov 11 of 28 39% 6 of 18 5 of 9 0 of 1 7 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Arman Tsarukyan 13 of 31 41% 5 of 22 6 of 7 2 of 2 13 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 12 of 32 37% 5 of 24 6 of 7 1 of 1 6 of 26 6 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan, his guy, hoping the loss to Gamrot helps him improve. He notes that Damir is not the wrestler Gamrot is, so he sees Arman getting takedowns and winning the scrambles. He acknowledges Arman faded in his last fight but this is a three-round fight, which favors him.

Plans to bet on Arman more takedowns (prop bet) because Damir won't take him down
"I'm gonna stick with my guy here I'm hoping that loss to gamrat just sort of helps moving him forward"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Tsarukyan, citing his elite wrestling and power advantage. He notes Ismagulov has 90% takedown defense but hasn't faced a wrestler like Tsarukyan. He thinks Tsarukyan will mix in takedowns and win a competitive decision. He wants to see Ismagulov's weight cut but leans Tsarukyan.

Tsarukyan wins by decision
"I gotta go with saruki in here and I will take him to win by decision but I think it's going to be a pretty close one here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Cody likes Ismagulov as an underdog because of his well-rounded skills, solid takedown defense, and durability. He thinks Ismagulov can stay on the outside, use his jab, and stifle Tsarukyan's takedowns to win a striking battle. He notes Tsarukyan is still green and was taken down by Gamrot, which raises questions.

plus 165 underdog
"at plus 165 I feel like you can get worse underdogs... I'm not gonna lie man this is a 14 fight card... 165 one of the better ones that I did like"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
Damir Ismagulov

Ismagulov is very talented and this should be a 50/50 fight. He didn't show his best in his last two fights due to long layoffs, but this is his second fight in six months, so he should be in better shape. He can be defensively responsible with his grappling and outstrike Tsarukyan on the feet. The line is too wide in favor of Tsarukyan.

1 unit at +159
"this fight should really be a 50 50 fight it should be minus 110 on both sides as Israel gulab is very talented"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul picks Tsarukyan, believing he is a top talent with all the skills. He thinks Tsarukyan will land takedowns and is super quick on the feet. He notes Tsarukyan is young and still developing, expecting to see the best version of him. He is not confident enough to bet but picks him.

"I'm gonna pick saruki and I think he will be able to uh land some takedowns here... I expect to see the best arm and Armin sarukian that we have seen to date"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan over Damir Ismagulov, noting the three-round fight favors Tsarukyan's cardio. He believes Tsarukyan's lead switch kick to the body will be effective against Ismagulov's high guard, and that Ismagulov doesn't have the offensive grappling of Mateusz Gamrot to threaten takedowns. He also thinks Ismagulov took damage in his last fight against Guram Kutateladze. He predicts Tsarukyan's higher fight IQ and youth (26) will lead to a win.

"I'm gonna go if I'm in saruki in here over damira's magulov"
LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 1 95 of 247 38% 110 of 264 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:39
Arman Tsarukyan 0 81 of 138 58% 108 of 166 6 of 21 28% 0 0 4:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 15 of 37 40% 19 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
Arman Tsarukyan 0 10 of 19 52% 11 of 20 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:24
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 19 of 64 29% 21 of 68 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Arman Tsarukyan 0 18 of 38 47% 21 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 22 of 45 48% 23 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Arman Tsarukyan 0 20 of 33 60% 30 of 43 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:20
4 Mateusz Gamrot 1 16 of 47 34% 18 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Arman Tsarukyan 0 13 of 23 56% 18 of 29 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:41
5 Mateusz Gamrot 0 23 of 54 42% 29 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:29
Arman Tsarukyan 0 20 of 25 80% 28 of 33 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 95 of 247 38% 43 of 182 39 of 48 13 of 17 88 of 235 3 of 6 4 of 6
Arman Tsarukyan 81 of 138 58% 68 of 121 9 of 12 4 of 5 73 of 129 4 of 5 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 15 of 37 40% 3 of 21 7 of 9 5 of 7 14 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Arman Tsarukyan 10 of 19 52% 6 of 13 2 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 19 of 64 29% 7 of 47 9 of 12 3 of 5 18 of 62 0 of 1 1 of 1
Arman Tsarukyan 18 of 38 47% 13 of 33 3 of 3 2 of 2 16 of 36 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Mateusz Gamrot 22 of 45 48% 11 of 33 8 of 9 3 of 3 20 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Arman Tsarukyan 20 of 33 60% 19 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 1 18 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Mateusz Gamrot 16 of 47 34% 9 of 38 7 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 45 0 of 1 1 of 1
Arman Tsarukyan 13 of 23 56% 12 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Mateusz Gamrot 23 of 54 42% 13 of 43 8 of 9 2 of 2 21 of 49 0 of 1 2 of 4
Arman Tsarukyan 20 of 25 80% 18 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 22 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan but bets on Mateusz Gamrot via buying points. He notes both are mirror images as wrestlers with improving hands, but Tsarukyan has never been out-wrestled except by Islam Makhachev, while Gamrot has struggled with takedown efficiency in some fights. He expects a close decision and buys +5.5 points on Gamrot, believing Gamrot can steal rounds on scorecards.

bought +5.5 points on Mateusz Gamrot (buying points on scorecard)
"the pick's gonna be armin but the bet here is plus five and a half on gamron because i absolutely think he can steal some points on some judge's core cards"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by decision. He believes Tsarukyan's wrestling will be the difference, getting takedowns and controlling Gamrot. He notes Tsarukyan's youth (25 vs 31), improved striking, and success against Islam Makhachev. He questions Gamrot's cardio in a five-round fight (Gamrot admitted doubts about cardio in a three-round fight). He expects a back-and-forth fight but Tsarukyan winning minutes with takedowns and top control. He says the line is wide but Tsarukyan is the pick.

"i like armin here um the line's wide it really is gameron is very good but i just feel like armin is going to be the one getting takedowns and just going to rinse to repeat"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody agrees with Paul, but thinks Gamrot is a live dog. He notes Gamrot's slow starts and potential cardio issues in a five-round fight. He believes Tsarukyan's speed and power will be too much, and he also likes Tsarukyan by decision.

Tsarukyan by decision +150 at DraftKings
"i'm gonna agree that i think sirikin wins the fight just three to one three to one is like supposed to be a walk in the park right he should be able to go out there and dominate gamron i …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul thinks Tsarukyan is the total package with elite striking and grappling, and he's only 24. He notes the price is a bit wide but Tsarukyan is a rightful favorite. He expects Tsarukyan to win, possibly by decision, and mentions Tsarukyan decision at +150 as a prop.

Tsarukyan by decision +150 at DraftKings
"I love saruka i think he's got the he's the total package he's like 24 years old still striking is on point grappling is is elites"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The host picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing his consistent cardio and ability to improve as the fight goes on. He notes Gamrot slows down in later rounds, as seen against Diego Ferreira. He expects Tsarukyan to take over in rounds 3-5 and predicts a fourth-round TKO. He acknowledges Gamrot's explosiveness but believes Tsarukyan's overall game is superior.

fourth round TKO prediction
"i'm going to go with arm and saruki in here"
WIN vs Joel Alvarez
TKO (punches) R2 1:57 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joel Alvarez 0 36 of 53 67% 93 of 122 2 of 2 100% 0 0 6:08
Arman Tsarukyan 0 7 of 10 70% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joel Alvarez 0 13 of 19 68% 50 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:22
Arman Tsarukyan 0 5 of 8 62% 25 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Joel Alvarez 0 23 of 34 67% 43 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:46
Arman Tsarukyan 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joel Alvarez 36 of 53 67% 31 of 48 3 of 3 2 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 32 of 44
Arman Tsarukyan 7 of 10 70% 5 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joel Alvarez 13 of 19 68% 10 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 12
Arman Tsarukyan 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 Joel Alvarez 23 of 34 67% 21 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 23 of 32
Arman Tsarukyan 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joel Alvarez

Round 1
It’s a pairing of four-fight winning streaks for these lightweight prospects, and Chris Tognoni will referee the bout. Tsarukyan sticks a jab early. Tsarukyan kicks Alvarez’s leg and is able to score a takedown with his opponent off balance. Tsarukyan is now inside the lanky Spaniard’s guard. Alvarez lands an elbow from his back. Tsarukyan remains heavy on top, and he’s working diligently to pass to half guard. Alvarez does a good job preventing the pass. Tsarukyan drops an elbow from above. Alvarez is active with his guard and lands a hammerfist from his back. Tsarukyan floats into a front headlock before finding himself in the full guard of his opponent. A slashing elbow lands for Tsarukyan, who then lands a short elbow to the face. It’s control time galore for the Russian standout, and another elbow cuts Alvarez wide open. Alvarez is just gushing blood in the waning seconds, and Tsarukyan is pouring it on. Another elbow lands before the horn. The fight could be in danger of being stopped between rounds, as Alvarez’s face is a crimson mask.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan

Round 2
Amazingly, Alvarez is allowed to continue for another round after a brief examination from the cageside doctor. Tsarukyan shoots immediately. Alvarez looks for a guillotine but his foe passes to side control. Tsarukyan briefly achieves a mounted crucifix but Alvarez frees his arm. From side control, Tsarukyan drops brual elbows and punches, and Alvarez is spewing blood again, his vision obviously obscured. Alvarez is on all fours, eating punches. The Spaniard attempts to stand, and Tsarukyan ragdolls him back down near the fence. More punches from Tsarukyan, and Tognoni urges Alvarez to fight back.
From back mount, Tsarukyan controls the wrists and unloads with more left hands. Tognoni has finally seen enough and mercifully calls off the fight.

The Official Result
Arman Tsarukyan def. Joel Alvarez via TKO (Punches) R2 1:57
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win inside the distance. He notes Alvarez has a massive eight-inch height and 4.5-inch reach advantage, and is dangerous everywhere: striking and submissions. He points out that Tsarukyan's wrestling could play into Alvarez's game, as Alvarez has a 0% takedown defense but is very dangerous off his back with multiple submission wins. Brady was initially surprised that money was coming in on Alvarez but now sees it as justified. He believes Alvarez can finish by knockout or submission.

Alvarez to win inside the distance
"I'll take alvarez to you know whether it's a knockout on the feet sorkin has been knocked out before or whether it is a submission off his back you know maybe he can get a reversal get on top but …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody picks Tsarukyan by decision, citing his superior speed, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Alvarez's submission threats but believes Tsarukyan's head placement and takedown defense will keep him safe. Cody mentions Tsarukyan's camp in Russia as a slight concern but still sees him winning via volume and takedowns.

Tsarukyan by decision
"my pick is saruki and by decision i think he does mind his p's and q's"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by decision. He emphasizes Tsarukyan's relentless takedown game and ability to neutralize submissions. Levi notes Alvarez is dangerous with submissions off his back and has knockout power, but believes Tsarukyan will avoid standing and grind out a win. He disagrees with the dog-or-pass label and expects Tsarukyan to cover the spread.

"i think armin is going to come out here smart and rinse and repeat on the takedowns eventually just neutralize the submission attempts and win this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

The host hesitantly picks Alvarez as an underdog, citing his size, confidence, and finishing streak. He believes Alvarez can keep the fight standing and land big strikes, potentially drawing a desperation takedown from Tsarukyan that could lead to a guillotine. He acknowledges Tsarukyan is a top prospect but thinks the odds are too wide and Alvarez deserves more respect. He predicts a second-round TKO.

"i'm actually going to go out on the limb here and take uh joel alvarez to get the dub in this spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul agrees with Tsarukyan by decision, emphasizing his wrestling and striking advantage. He notes Alvarez's improved striking but trusts Tsarukyan's ability to mix takedowns and avoid submissions. Paul suggests waiting for a better price on Tsarukyan as the line may move.

Tsarukyan by decision
"i would go with circuit my decision as well use the wrestling to either put them down when you want or just yeah neutralizing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez to win, calling it a 51-49 lean. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's skills but believes Alvarez's size, reach, and power are decisive factors. He notes that Alvarez is much bigger and may have a weight advantage, and that his immediate damaging shots (elbows, guillotines) give him more paths to victory. The Guru expects Tsarukyan to win by decision if he wins, while Alvarez can finish early by TKO or submission. He also mentions Alvarez's chin held up against Thiago Moises.

first round TKO or guillotine submission; weight advantage; Alvarez by finish
"i'm going to go with joel alvarez here um dangerous with elbows as well when they're covering up against the cage"
TKO (punches) R1 2:09 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 1 22 of 31 70% 27 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Christos Giagos 0 1 of 6 16% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 1 22 of 31 70% 27 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Christos Giagos 0 1 of 6 16% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 22 of 31 70% 21 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 10 0 of 0 18 of 21
Christos Giagos 1 of 6 16% 0 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 22 of 31 70% 21 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 10 0 of 0 18 of 21
Christos Giagos 1 of 6 16% 0 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo is very confident in Arman Tsarukyan, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He praises Arman's wrestling, striking, and athleticism, noting he improves between fights. He thinks Christos Giagos is tough but will be outmatched everywhere. He expects a one-sided beating and suggests the under on rounds might be worth a bet for plus money.

Under 2.5 rounds (suggested for plus money)
"armin is obviously the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady is very confident in Arman Tsarukyan, citing his relentless wrestling and high pace. He notes Giagos has poor takedown defense and cardio, and has been finished five times. He predicts Tsarukyan will get a late finish, specifically a third-round submission, as Giagos slows down.

third round submission
"i think saruki and does get a finish here i think is late in the fight after um geos definitely does slow down definitely does gas out and i'll take armas rookie to win by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody is very confident in Tsarukyan, highlighting his youth, wrestling, and experience against tough competition. He believes Giagos' only path is wrestling, but Tsarukyan is a superior wrestler and will not be taken down. Cody predicts a late finish as Giagos gasses.

Tsarukyan inside distance +150, Tsarukyan round 3 TKO
"i got saruki and then i got a feeling that this thing ends up being in sarukian later finish"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win. He says Giagos might make it competitive for five minutes before gassing, then Tsarukyan will take over with takedowns. He questions whether -800 is worth it for a decision win but is sure Tsarukyan wins. He mentions Tsarukyan's only scored over 100 fantasy points once (against Matt Frevola) but sees potential for a breakthrough.

"give me armand surukian not sure if it's a finisher or a decision but i am sure about him winning this fight so give me arm and surrounding for the dub"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Preet is very confident Tsarukyan will win and finish Giagos. He notes Tsarukyan's striking is improving and he owns Giagos everywhere. Giagos has poor cardio and will slow down, allowing Tsarukyan to get his first UFC finish. He likes Tsarukyan inside the distance at +170 and round 2-3 props.

Arman Tsarukyan inside the distance +170, Tsarukyan round 2 +550, Tsarukyan round 3 +975
"I think this is the spot for saurikan to go out there and get his first ever ufc finish so uh sarukin inside the distance again I think it could come submission or ko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul picks Tsarukyan as a parlay piece, noting that Giagos has suspect cardio and was outstruck by Sean Soriano before getting a submission. He believes Tsarukyan's wrestling and durability will be too much. Paul mentions he has Tsarukyan in a three-leg parlay.

"sarookian's the pick he's a parlay piece"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan by submission in the second round, calling it a mismatch. He highlights Tsarukyan's well-rounded skills, great grappling, and cardio. He notes Giagos is not a prolific finisher and predicts Tsarukyan will easily get takedowns and finish with a rear-naked choke.

submission in round 2
"armand saruki and way more well-rounded"
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan but bets on Mateusz Gamrot via buying points. He notes both are mirror images as wrestlers with improving hands, but Tsarukyan has never been out-wrestled except by Islam Makhachev, while Gamrot has struggled with takedown efficiency in some fights. He expects a close decision and buys +5.5 points on Gamrot, believing Gamrot can steal rounds on scorecards.

bought +5.5 points on Mateusz Gamrot (buying points on scorecard)
"the pick's gonna be armin but the bet here is plus five and a half on gamron because i absolutely think he can steal some points on some judge's core cards"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by decision. He believes Tsarukyan's wrestling will be the difference, getting takedowns and controlling Gamrot. He notes Tsarukyan's youth (25 vs 31), improved striking, and success against Islam Makhachev. He questions Gamrot's cardio in a five-round fight (Gamrot admitted doubts about cardio in a three-round fight). He expects a back-and-forth fight but Tsarukyan winning minutes with takedowns and top control. He says the line is wide but Tsarukyan is the pick.

"i like armin here um the line's wide it really is gameron is very good but i just feel like armin is going to be the one getting takedowns and just going to rinse to repeat"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody agrees with Paul, but thinks Gamrot is a live dog. He notes Gamrot's slow starts and potential cardio issues in a five-round fight. He believes Tsarukyan's speed and power will be too much, and he also likes Tsarukyan by decision.

Tsarukyan by decision +150 at DraftKings
"i'm gonna agree that i think sirikin wins the fight just three to one three to one is like supposed to be a walk in the park right he should be able to go out there and dominate gamron i don't necessarily think that's the case"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul thinks Tsarukyan is the total package with elite striking and grappling, and he's only 24. He notes the price is a bit wide but Tsarukyan is a rightful favorite. He expects Tsarukyan to win, possibly by decision, and mentions Tsarukyan decision at +150 as a prop.

Tsarukyan by decision +150 at DraftKings
"I love saruka i think he's got the he's the total package he's like 24 years old still striking is on point grappling is is elites"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The host picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing his consistent cardio and ability to improve as the fight goes on. He notes Gamrot slows down in later rounds, as seen against Diego Ferreira. He expects Tsarukyan to take over in rounds 3-5 and predicts a fourth-round TKO. He acknowledges Gamrot's explosiveness but believes Tsarukyan's overall game is superior.

fourth round TKO prediction
"i'm going to go with arm and saruki in here"