UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Next Fight
Age 36
Height 5' 6"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Sergey Morozov
3.01 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
2.97 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
3.63 TD Avg
31.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Raulian Paiva
4.14 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
5.01 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
0.65 TD Avg
23.0% TD Acc.
77.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Sergey Morozov
Moneyline
BetWay -154
KO/TKO
FanDuel +380
Submission
BetRivers +1000
Decision
BetWay +200
Raulian Paiva
Moneyline
DraftKings +145
KO/TKO
FanDuel +440
Submission
BetRivers +1000
Decision
DraftKings +330
Sergey Morozov - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sergey Morozov 0 30 of 105 28% 65 of 145 6 of 13 46% 0 0 6:59
Journey Newson 0 26 of 106 24% 49 of 136 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sergey Morozov 0 12 of 43 27% 16 of 47 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:24
Journey Newson 0 10 of 47 21% 11 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Sergey Morozov 0 11 of 38 28% 21 of 49 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:21
Journey Newson 0 8 of 32 25% 14 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sergey Morozov 0 7 of 24 29% 28 of 49 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:14
Journey Newson 0 8 of 27 29% 24 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sergey Morozov 30 of 105 28% 7 of 76 8 of 12 15 of 17 16 of 88 9 of 11 5 of 6
Journey Newson 26 of 106 24% 10 of 78 7 of 14 9 of 14 25 of 104 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sergey Morozov 12 of 43 27% 4 of 34 2 of 3 6 of 6 8 of 37 3 of 4 1 of 2
Journey Newson 10 of 47 21% 6 of 40 3 of 6 1 of 1 10 of 46 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Sergey Morozov 11 of 38 28% 2 of 25 5 of 7 4 of 6 5 of 31 2 of 3 4 of 4
Journey Newson 8 of 32 25% 0 of 18 3 of 5 5 of 9 8 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sergey Morozov 7 of 24 29% 1 of 17 1 of 2 5 of 5 3 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0
Journey Newson 8 of 27 29% 4 of 20 1 of 3 3 of 4 7 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Angelo gives a slight lean to Sergey Morozov, citing his better takedown defense and ability to stop takedown attempts while getting his own. However, he notes that Journey Newson looked incredible in his last fight and that version could beat Sergey. He believes this should be a 50/50 fight and plans to find a way to bet on Journey Newson as well.

Plans to bet on Journey Newson as underdog
"I'm gonna do I'm just gonna give the the slightest lean towards Sergey here because I think he's got the better takedown defense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Big Brady likes Morozov to win but is hesitant due to durability concerns, noting Morozov has been finished in four of five losses and gets hurt often. However, he thinks Newson isn't a big power puncher so it shouldn't be a major issue. He expects Morozov to mix in takedowns and grind out a three-round decision. He can't get behind the moneyline at -300 but picks Morozov by decision.

Morozov by decision
"I like him to win I think a striking solid but I think in this matchup he's going to be able to go out there mixing takedowns whenever he wants... give me Rose off to win this one by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Cody picks Morozov, noting his wrestling and well-rounded skills. He thinks Newson is a boxer with limited MMA skills and Morozov will take him down and control him. He expects a decision win but acknowledges a finish is possible.

Morozov by decision (considered)
"the pick will be certain Immortals yeah pick for me is going to be Sergey Morrison as well"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Connor picks Morozov, noting he is a high-level fighter with an aggressive, put-together game. He thinks Morozov will be the aggressive one, come forward, wrestle, and land combinations. He notes Newson is not durable and his game seems experimental.

"I just think morozov is given that kind of opponent he's like, oh i'm going to be the aggressive one. Great."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Paul picks Morozov, agreeing with Cody. He thinks Morozov's wrestling will be too much for Newson. He notes Newson's only path is a puncher's chance. He is not excited about the price but sees Morozov as a safe pick.

"roseov will be the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

The MMA Guru picks Sergey Morozov over Journey Newson, citing Morozov's size and strength advantage. He notes that Newson is too small for bantamweight at 5'5" and expects Morozov to implement a grappling clinic. However, he expresses concern about Morozov's chin, as he has been hurt in recent fights by Halley and Paver and Douglas Silva de Andrade. Despite this, he trusts Morozov's grappling to get the job done, as Newson is not a consistent one-punch KO threat at bantamweight.

"I am going to be going with Sergey morozov here to start off the card"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Zane picks Morozov, noting he has more options in exchanges and can punch his way into takedowns. He thinks Newson is not comfortable in protracted exchanges and Morozov will press his wrestling advantage. He also mentions Morozov might block a kick and knock Newson out.

"He only has to throw three punches getting inside one has to land and then he can do something else that isn't trading punches"
WIN vs Raulian Paiva
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sergey Morozov 0 63 of 142 44% 63 of 142 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:13
Raulian Paiva 0 68 of 127 53% 82 of 143 2 of 13 15% 0 0 4:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sergey Morozov 0 39 of 76 51% 39 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Raulian Paiva 0 31 of 57 54% 32 of 58 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:14
2 Sergey Morozov 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raulian Paiva 0 7 of 14 50% 17 of 26 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:51
3 Sergey Morozov 0 16 of 50 32% 16 of 50 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:10
Raulian Paiva 0 30 of 56 53% 33 of 59 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sergey Morozov 63 of 142 44% 51 of 120 10 of 20 2 of 2 62 of 140 1 of 1 0 of 1
Raulian Paiva 68 of 127 53% 56 of 113 8 of 9 4 of 5 66 of 122 1 of 3 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sergey Morozov 39 of 76 51% 31 of 63 6 of 11 2 of 2 39 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 31 of 57 54% 26 of 52 4 of 4 1 of 1 31 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sergey Morozov 8 of 16 50% 7 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 1
Raulian Paiva 7 of 14 50% 5 of 11 0 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 2
3 Sergey Morozov 16 of 50 32% 13 of 43 3 of 7 0 of 0 16 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 30 of 56 53% 25 of 50 4 of 4 1 of 2 30 of 54 0 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Angelo picks Sergey Morozov to win an ugly, fun fight. He highlights Morozov's counter-striking and grappling, noting that Paiva tends to run forward looking for a brawl, which plays into Morozov's counter-striking. He compares Morozov's potential success to Sean O'Malley's, who lit Paiva up with counters. He expects Morozov's grappling to also be a factor.

"i like marazzo off here to win an ugly and very fun fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Big Brady picks Sergey Morozov to win by decision, but with low confidence. He likes Morozov's path to victory via takedowns and control, noting Paiva's poor takedown defense (taken down by multiple opponents). However, he questions Morozov's chin (dropped three times in last fight, KO losses outside UFC) and submission defense. He thinks the fight could get sketchy and says he is staying away from betting it. He expects Morozov to grind out a decision.

"i'm going to take morozov to kind of grind this one out... but uh this one could get sketchy for sure"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Cody likes Morozov's power and boxing, and thinks Paiva's poor head movement and durability issues will lead to a knockout. He also mentions Morozov by KO as a prop.

Morozov by KO
"i gotta go with the guy with the better skill set here so sergey morozov and i'm kind of tempted to maybe maybe take a shot on morse off by knockout yeah"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Paul agrees, noting Paiva's weight cut issues and the damage he's taken. He thinks Morozov will get back on track.

"i think morozov gets on back on track in this spot as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

The host picks Sergey Morozov, calling it the toughest fight to predict. He notes Morozov's grappling advantage and believes he will use takedowns to control the fight. He expects a finish in the second round, citing Morozov's experience against good opponents like Umar Nurmagomedov. He is not confident in Paiva's improvements.

second round finish prediction
"i am going to go with sergey morrisov here"
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:24 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Douglas Silva de Andrade 3 37 of 64 57% 57 of 86 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:55
Sergey Morozov 1 32 of 65 49% 62 of 99 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 15 of 30 50% 28 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sergey Morozov 1 23 of 40 57% 53 of 74 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:09
2 Douglas Silva de Andrade 3 22 of 34 64% 29 of 43 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:55
Sergey Morozov 0 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Douglas Silva de Andrade 37 of 64 57% 16 of 40 12 of 14 9 of 10 31 of 56 6 of 7 0 of 1
Sergey Morozov 32 of 65 49% 24 of 56 6 of 7 2 of 2 25 of 54 1 of 1 6 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Douglas Silva de Andrade 15 of 30 50% 6 of 19 3 of 4 6 of 7 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sergey Morozov 23 of 40 57% 19 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 29 1 of 1 6 of 10
2 Douglas Silva de Andrade 22 of 34 64% 10 of 21 9 of 10 3 of 3 16 of 26 6 of 7 0 of 1
Sergey Morozov 9 of 25 36% 5 of 20 2 of 3 2 of 2 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Angelo picks Morozov due to his wrestling advantage, noting that Andrade has been taken down in every loss. He believes Morozov can hang with Andrade's power, set a hard pace, and mix in takedowns to win a unanimous decision. He acknowledges Andrade's experience but thinks Morozov's pressure and top control will be decisive.

"i like morozov to win this fight and i like him to win because of the wrestling if you look at andraj's losses he was taken down in every single one of them"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Big Brady is impressed with Morozov's well-rounded game, especially his fight IQ and takedown ability. He notes Morozov showed good striking against Khalid Taha and took him down six times. Brady believes Morozov will take down Silva de Andrade multiple times and control him on the mat, leading to a decision win. He also points out Silva de Andrade is 36 and has only one submission win, relying mostly on knockouts.

Morozov by decision
"I think this is a pretty good spot for a decision win for sergey morozov"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Cody picks Morozov, citing his high-level regional experience and grinding style. He notes Silva de Andrade has poor takedown defense and that Morozov can exploit that. He expects Morozov to take him down and control the fight.

"i gotta go with morizov man i really do like this guy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Daniel Levi picks Sergey Morozov by decision. He notes that Morozov showed big improvements in his last fight and that his clinch and pressure will be key. Silva de Andrade has holes in the clinch and tends to rest. Levi believes Morozov will work harder and win a decision.

"i think he will uh defeat douglas de silva by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Morozov has a clear grappling advantage and should dominate de Andrade on the ground. De Andrade has shown vulnerability to wrestlers in the past, struggling to get up from under opponents like Henan Barou. Morozov trains at American Top Team and has sharp boxing to close distance. The only way de Andrade wins is by knockout, but Morozov's chin and unorthodox striking make that unlikely. Already placed 3 units and may add more.

decision win for Morozov; may become lock of the night
"i'm all over sergey morizov here i love him in this spot um as of this recording i already have three units on him i might add another two and make him my lock of the night play"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul admits he hasn't watched tape on this fight and defers to Cody's analysis. He doesn't make a clear pick.

"this is like the one fight that i haven't even been able to get around to watching any tape on"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

The MMA Guru picks Sergey Morozov, citing his grappling pressure and ability to slow down Douglas Silva de Andrade, who tends to fade. He notes Morozov's strong M1 Challenge background and believes he can secure a third-round rear-naked choke finish.

third round rear-naked choke
"i'm going with sergey morrisov here"
WIN vs Khalid Taha
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Makhachev vs. Moises · Jul 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sergey Morozov 0 33 of 123 26% 66 of 158 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Khalid Taha 0 50 of 103 48% 99 of 159 6 of 16 37% 0 0 8:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sergey Morozov 0 3 of 19 15% 23 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalid Taha 0 8 of 18 44% 21 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:58
2 Sergey Morozov 0 12 of 35 34% 19 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalid Taha 0 17 of 33 51% 33 of 51 3 of 7 42% 0 0 2:53
3 Sergey Morozov 0 18 of 69 26% 24 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Khalid Taha 0 25 of 52 48% 45 of 73 2 of 7 28% 0 0 2:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sergey Morozov 33 of 123 26% 9 of 82 12 of 25 12 of 16 30 of 117 3 of 5 0 of 1
Khalid Taha 50 of 103 48% 45 of 94 2 of 5 3 of 4 33 of 81 6 of 7 11 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sergey Morozov 3 of 19 15% 1 of 11 0 of 3 2 of 5 3 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 1
Khalid Taha 8 of 18 44% 7 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 0 5 of 8
2 Sergey Morozov 12 of 35 34% 3 of 20 3 of 9 6 of 6 12 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalid Taha 17 of 33 51% 16 of 31 0 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 26 1 of 1 5 of 6
3 Sergey Morozov 18 of 69 26% 5 of 51 9 of 13 4 of 5 15 of 64 3 of 5 0 of 0
Khalid Taha 25 of 52 48% 22 of 48 1 of 2 2 of 2 19 of 45 5 of 6 1 of 1
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Cody leans towards Sergey Morozov as a live underdog, citing his ring IQ and wrestling. He believes Morozov can take Khalid Taha down and grind him out, exploiting Taha's poor takedown defense and cardio. He notes that Taha is explosive and heavy-handed, but if Morozov implements the right game plan, he can win.

"I'm gonna have to go with sergey morozov it really does come down to his ring iq and is he going to shoot the reactionary takedowns."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul passes on this fight, calling it a 'dogger pass'. He is not sure if he will bet it and prefers to wait for weigh-ins. He acknowledges that Taha could come out looking strong, but he doesn't commit to a pick.

"I think it's a dogger pass i don't have anything on it i'm not sure if i will."
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:39 · UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 25 of 41 60% 32 of 48 5 of 11 45% 1 0 2:57
Sergey Morozov 0 7 of 30 23% 8 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 11 of 21 52% 15 of 25 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:08
Sergey Morozov 0 3 of 20 15% 3 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 14 of 20 70% 17 of 23 3 of 6 50% 1 0 1:49
Sergey Morozov 0 4 of 10 40% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 25 of 41 60% 14 of 25 4 of 9 7 of 7 18 of 34 6 of 6 1 of 1
Sergey Morozov 7 of 30 23% 2 of 20 3 of 7 2 of 3 7 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 11 of 21 52% 3 of 11 3 of 5 5 of 5 10 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sergey Morozov 3 of 20 15% 1 of 14 2 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 14 of 20 70% 11 of 14 1 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 14 5 of 5 1 of 1
Sergey Morozov 4 of 10 40% 1 of 6 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady acknowledges that Sergey Morozov is a solid fighter but believes Umar Nurmagomedov's takedowns and top control will be decisive. He notes that Morozov has been submitted and knocked out before, and that Nurmagomedov is very good at getting takedowns early. He predicts a decision win for Nurmagomedov, possibly 30-27, but calls the -550 line a bit crazy.

Nurmagomedov by decision; -550 is crazy
"nurmagomedov probably should get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host likes Umar's diverse kicking game and fluid stand-up, but is hesitant due to the steep -400 line and Umar being a UFC debutant. He thinks Umar's takedowns and ground control will lead to a decision win, but wants to see him against established UFC competition before betting heavily.

"i still think the odds are a little bit wide i'm not willing to go out there and shell out that minus 500 on a ufc debutant"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite being tempted by the +500 odds on Morozov. He acknowledges Morozov is a good fighter who avenged a previous loss, but believes Umar is equally good on the feet and on the ground, with a great team behind him. He predicts a close fight but expects Umar to do enough to win each round, resulting in a 30-27 unanimous decision. He notes Umar's reach advantage and sneaky front kick.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm going to go with umar nemet off by 30 27 unanimous decision win it's gonna be competitive the five to one odds have almost lured me to pick morrisov i'm not gonna do it though"
Raulian Paiva - Fight History
LOSS vs Sergey Morozov
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sergey Morozov 0 63 of 142 44% 63 of 142 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:13
Raulian Paiva 0 68 of 127 53% 82 of 143 2 of 13 15% 0 0 4:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sergey Morozov 0 39 of 76 51% 39 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Raulian Paiva 0 31 of 57 54% 32 of 58 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:14
2 Sergey Morozov 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raulian Paiva 0 7 of 14 50% 17 of 26 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:51
3 Sergey Morozov 0 16 of 50 32% 16 of 50 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:10
Raulian Paiva 0 30 of 56 53% 33 of 59 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sergey Morozov 63 of 142 44% 51 of 120 10 of 20 2 of 2 62 of 140 1 of 1 0 of 1
Raulian Paiva 68 of 127 53% 56 of 113 8 of 9 4 of 5 66 of 122 1 of 3 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sergey Morozov 39 of 76 51% 31 of 63 6 of 11 2 of 2 39 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 31 of 57 54% 26 of 52 4 of 4 1 of 1 31 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sergey Morozov 8 of 16 50% 7 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 1
Raulian Paiva 7 of 14 50% 5 of 11 0 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 2
3 Sergey Morozov 16 of 50 32% 13 of 43 3 of 7 0 of 0 16 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 30 of 56 53% 25 of 50 4 of 4 1 of 2 30 of 54 0 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Angelo picks Sergey Morozov to win an ugly, fun fight. He highlights Morozov's counter-striking and grappling, noting that Paiva tends to run forward looking for a brawl, which plays into Morozov's counter-striking. He compares Morozov's potential success to Sean O'Malley's, who lit Paiva up with counters. He expects Morozov's grappling to also be a factor.

"i like marazzo off here to win an ugly and very fun fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Big Brady picks Sergey Morozov to win by decision, but with low confidence. He likes Morozov's path to victory via takedowns and control, noting Paiva's poor takedown defense (taken down by multiple opponents). However, he questions Morozov's chin (dropped three times in last fight, KO losses outside UFC) and submission defense. He thinks the fight could get sketchy and says he is staying away from betting it. He expects Morozov to grind out a decision.

"i'm going to take morozov to kind of grind this one out... but uh this one could get sketchy for sure"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Cody likes Morozov's power and boxing, and thinks Paiva's poor head movement and durability issues will lead to a knockout. He also mentions Morozov by KO as a prop.

Morozov by KO
"i gotta go with the guy with the better skill set here so sergey morozov and i'm kind of tempted to maybe maybe take a shot on morse off by knockout yeah"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Paul agrees, noting Paiva's weight cut issues and the damage he's taken. He thinks Morozov will get back on track.

"i think morozov gets on back on track in this spot as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

The host picks Sergey Morozov, calling it the toughest fight to predict. He notes Morozov's grappling advantage and believes he will use takedowns to control the fight. He expects a finish in the second round, citing Morozov's experience against good opponents like Umar Nurmagomedov. He is not confident in Paiva's improvements.

second round finish prediction
"i am going to go with sergey morrisov here"
LOSS vs Sean O'Malley
TKO (punches) R1 4:42 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean O'Malley 0 11 of 47 23% 11 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Raulian Paiva 1 39 of 62 62% 40 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean O'Malley 0 11 of 47 23% 11 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Raulian Paiva 1 39 of 62 62% 40 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean O'Malley 11 of 47 23% 2 of 32 3 of 6 6 of 9 11 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 39 of 62 62% 28 of 50 8 of 9 3 of 3 37 of 59 0 of 0 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean O'Malley 11 of 47 23% 2 of 32 3 of 6 6 of 9 11 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 39 of 62 62% 28 of 50 8 of 9 3 of 3 37 of 59 0 of 0 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean O'Malley vs. Raulian Paiva

Round 1
Kicking off the main card of UFC 269 is an unranked bantamweight pairing between ex-flyweight Paiva (21-3, 3-2 UFC) and the fluorescently haired O’Malley (14-1, 6-1 UFC). The Octagon ranger for this one is referee Jason Herzog, and there is no interest in a glove touch as they would rather introduce themselves to one another with their fists. O’Malley comes out switching his stances back and forth, and Paiva swings and misses at his elusive foe. Paiva kicks low, and he catches a front kick to the body so he can close in and get his hands on the American. O’Malley darts out of the way, and he fakes with a jab only to have his leg kicked. O’Malley stomp-kicks his foe’s knee, and he sticks out a single jab that split the guard. The ball of O’Malley’s foot clatters square into Paiva’s groin, and we draw a pause for a few seconds. Paiva is set to resume before long, and O’Malley backs away and starts lining jabs up. Paiva scores a quick calf kick that makes O’Malley changes stances, and he completes a short combination with an overhand right. O’Malley gathers himself and flicks his jabs out a few more times, keeping his range from a safe distance while Paiva gives chase. A sniper shot of a left hand snaps Paiva’s head back, but it is one-and-done as Paiva keeps walking him down. The Brazilian swipes out with a left hand, and as chants rain down for O’Malley, Paiva chips at his calf. O’Malley gets off a push kick to the midsection, only for Paiva to hack at his lead leg a few more times. “Sugar” strings together a clean combination that surprises Paiva and may have marked his nose up. Paiva recommits to the low calf kick, and he reaches out with the end of a right hook to glance off O’Malley’s jaw. They land strikes at the same time and appear no worse for wear, and O’Malley follows it up with a blistering right hand. Paiva leans back into the wall, and O’Malley tees off on him against the wire as Paiva is barely able to stay on his feet. Paiva never gets a chance to recover, as O’Malley rips the body and then smashes Paiva in the face with sharp, accurate strikes until Paiva falls over. The Brazilian springs back up, but he is still on rubber legs, and O’Malley continues to work him over. A left to the body and a right to the head spell the beginning of the end for Paiva, as O’Malley swarms him with a vigorous crescendo of punches until Paiva's knees give out and Herzog steps in. This is an impressive performance for a kid who has star power for days. In his post-fight interview, O'Malley admits that he was very close to withdrawing from the fight due to a serious rib injury, but he made it to fight night and put on a show.

The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Raulian Paiva R1 4:42 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Big Brady is confident in Sean O'Malley winning by knockout. He highlights O'Malley's massive striking advantage, with high volume and accuracy, while Paiva has poor striking defense and gets hit more than he lands. Paiva rarely shoots takedowns and has low takedown accuracy, so O'Malley should be able to keep the fight standing. Brady is unimpressed with Paiva's competition and believes O'Malley will finish him.

O'Malley by knockout
"give me o'malley to win give me o'malley to win by knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel Levi picks Sean O'Malley to win but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He praises O'Malley's striking diversity and volume but questions his defensive and mental toughness when facing adversity. Levi notes Paiva's heart and durability, referencing his comeback win over Kyler Phillips. He worries about O'Malley's compromised leg (from the Chito fight) and Paiva's ability to capitalize if O'Malley gets hurt. Levi says he might take a half-unit shot on Paiva but ultimately picks O'Malley.

half unit shot on Raulian Paiva at +250
"give me o'malley but i i do agree with you that it's dogger pass and i might take a half unit shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sean O'Malley

O'Malley has the striking advantage and power to finish, but Paiva is durable and has a path via takedowns. However, Paiva's striking defense is suspect, and O'Malley will counter effectively. The under 2.5 rounds is a good bet, as O'Malley likely gets a first-round KO.

under 2.5 rounds
"i'm going o'malley i'm taking him to win this fight by decision um i'm i'm gonna lay off of parliament too heavily here but i do think he has a side and i do think he gets a knockout so …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley to win by second-round TKO via a spinning back kick to the body. He believes O'Malley's reach, height, and striking advantage will be too much for Paiva. He notes O'Malley's underrated ground game and training with Kyla Phillips, who recently fought Paiva. He predicts O'Malley will hurt Paiva early and finish him with body shots.

second-round TKO via spinning back kick to the body
"i reckon he gets this one done by second round tko with a body themed ko i reckon it's going to be a spinning back kick to the body"
Decision (majority) (29–28, 29–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Jul 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raulian Paiva 1 74 of 132 56% 95 of 155 4 of 9 44% 0 1 3:02
Kyler Phillips 0 51 of 117 43% 72 of 147 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raulian Paiva 1 45 of 70 64% 61 of 86 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:01
Kyler Phillips 0 13 of 32 40% 19 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:23
2 Raulian Paiva 0 13 of 28 46% 15 of 32 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:37
Kyler Phillips 0 23 of 47 48% 23 of 47 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:25
3 Raulian Paiva 0 16 of 34 47% 19 of 37 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:24
Kyler Phillips 0 15 of 38 39% 30 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raulian Paiva 74 of 132 56% 62 of 115 7 of 11 5 of 6 43 of 95 8 of 9 23 of 28
Kyler Phillips 51 of 117 43% 37 of 96 14 of 21 0 of 0 41 of 102 7 of 10 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raulian Paiva 45 of 70 64% 41 of 64 2 of 3 2 of 3 19 of 39 3 of 3 23 of 28
Kyler Phillips 13 of 32 40% 9 of 28 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 26 1 of 1 3 of 5
2 Raulian Paiva 13 of 28 46% 9 of 23 3 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kyler Phillips 23 of 47 48% 17 of 38 6 of 9 0 of 0 17 of 38 6 of 9 0 of 0
3 Raulian Paiva 16 of 34 47% 12 of 28 2 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0
Kyler Phillips 15 of 38 39% 11 of 30 4 of 8 0 of 0 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raulian Paiva vs. Kyler Phillips

Round 1
Two top-flight teams will wage a proxy battle as the MMA Lab’s Phillips (9-1, 3-0 UFC) faces ex-flyweight and Team Alpha Male rep Paiva (20-3, 2-2 UFC) at bantamweight. The co-main event will tolerate zero nonsense as it draws oversight from referee Keith Peterson, and the gloves are touched to clock in this fight. Paiva is quick on the draw, with a few crisp punches when Phillips tries to close the distance. Phillips opens up with kicks, and he cracks the Brazilian with a right hand. Phillips opens up with a flying knee, and when he lands, he spins with a back fist that glances off the target. Paiva appears to have recovered from the big blow and partial knockdown to throw at Phillips, but “The Matrix” enters the matrix as he dodges several strikes and ducks down to clash heads with his advancing opponent. Phillips kicks the body, and his leg is caught and he takes two right hands and succumbs to a takedown from the position. When Phillips walks up the fence, he is able to spin around and spin Paiva around with a kimura. Phillips lifts his foe up in the air and slams him down like he was carrying groceries, and he lets Paiva up so that he can land a flashy kick to the body. Paiva appears unflustered and he walks Phillips down, but he eats a fierce right hand that hurts him. Another wobbles Paiva, who shoots in for a single and is stuffed. Phillips makes him pay with several punches, until the Brazilian bails on it and stands up. Phillips kicks him in the head, and spins around with a heel kick that clacks on the side of Paiva’s head. Paiva allows him to land the strike so that Phillips falls to the ground without any balance, and he climbs into Phillips’ guard to slow things down. Paiva postures up and lands a few long punches, but Phillips is quick to reverse him and put Paiva on his back. Phillips takes side control, and slices over to mount but is pulled back to half guard in an exchange. Paiva eats an elbow, scrambles back to his knees, takes another elbow, and stands back up. When Paiva stands back up, Phillips rocks him with another brutal right hand, and the Brazilian pushes for a desperation takedown. Paiva can barely stand, and Phillips cracks him with another right hand. A nasty elbow cracks the Brazilian on the jaw, and he collapses in a heap. The fight not quite over, Phillips dives in to finish the job. He continues to club Paiva with everything he has, and Paiva miraculously survives to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Phillips
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-8 Phillips
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Phillips

Round 2
The gloves are touched to begin the round, and Paiva comes out of his corner swinging for the bleachers. Phillips spins with a wheel kick to try to throw things off, and Paiva drops down to pursue a takedown. As soon as Phillips drops to a knee, he rolls for a leglock, and Paiva abandons the position before anything gets set up. Both men get back to their feet, and Phillips is ready with pep in his step and a blistering elbow square on the chin. Paiva takes it flush and fires back with a straight right hand, knocking Phillips off of his feet. Paiva sees that Phillips may be hurt and a little gassed, and he chases Phillips around the cage and unloads a fury at him. Paiva scores a clean uppercut that stings Phillips badly, and even though he may be bloodied and has taken some damage, he appears the fresher man and ignores a flying knee when Phillips tries to recover. Paiva pursues a takedown, and when Phillips fights it off, the latter takes a very deep breath before the midpoint of the round. Phillips dives forward for a tackle takedown, landing it and putting the Brazilian on his back. Paiva scoots his way to the fence, and he calmly stands back up while Phillips tries to keep him down. Paiva is able to break free, and he lands a one-two as Phillips is tiring fast. Paiva ducks a punch and grabs a body lock to try to plant “The Matrix” on the ground, but Phillips stops it and lands a spinning back elbow. When Paiva looks to do some damage with a right hand, Phillips evades it, grabs the back and drags Paiva down to the ground. Phillips takes back control and fishes for a choke, but Paiva rolls through to his knees. Phillips flattens Paiva out to set up a choke, and Paiva turns and nearly gives up mount. Phillips turns to try to get a better position, and he is forced to stand up. Phillips smashes Paiva in the face with a huge right hand, and Paiva eats it like an acai bowl and blasts Phillips back with one of his own. The spent fighters end the round pressed against the wall.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Paiva
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Paiva
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Paiva

Round 3
The bantamweight battle well worth the price of admission, both men touch gloves to begin the last round. Whose cardio is better is anyone’s guess. Paiva starts the dance with a few jabs, and Phillips comes back at him with a long right hand and a possible takedown entry. Paiva stuffs it without much effort and connects with a right hand that wobbles Phillips. Paiva opens up with a right and a left as Phillips bears down on him to take him down, stopping the attempt before it gets too far. Phillips shrugs off a right hand on the jaw to duck down low for a single, and both men fall to the ground with neither in an advantageous position. Phillips ducks face-first into an uppercut, and Paiva lays into him with a few punches but cannot hurt him. Phillips sells out with a huge right hand, and the two fighters are so wiped out, they are slipping all over the cage and wobbling after every punch. Phillips escapes a few strikes but takes some more when Paiva gives chase, and Phillips attacks with a spinning kick that is well short of the mark. Phillips goes all-in for a double leg takedown, scooping the Brazilian’s legs out beneath him bot not able to ground him for long. Paiva scores a right hand only to get pursued with another takedown, and Paiva grits it out and turns him around to take him down. Phillips defends with his legs to set up a reversal, but he does not have the energy to land it and instead is stuck on his back while Paiva is on top of him. The Brazilian holds on tight, not wanting “The Matrix” to get off any more wild strikes on his feet, and he gets off some ground-and-pound to stay busy. Paiva in half guard continues to control his opponent and land effective if not damaging punches. At the 10-second clapper, Phillips explodes to his feet and is ready to brawl. Phillips smashes his fist into the granite chin of Paiva, and Paiva throws everything he has back at his foe. One final flurry ends the fight, and this one could be close – close enough to be dead even, depending on how the judges see the rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Paiva (28-28)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Paiva (28-28)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Paiva (28-28)

The Official Result
Raulian Paiva def. Kyler Phillips via Majority Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Raulian Paiva

Angelo picks Raulian Paiva because he thinks Paiva is a real threat on the ground with jiu-jitsu and is a good striker. He notes that Kyler Phillips has wrestling and fight IQ, but Paiva could cause problems. He is not confident and is not betting on this fight. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting a decision.

more/more on monkey knife fight
"paiva is my pick don't i'm not betting on that this is just a pick to have a pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Big Brady is very high on Kyler Phillips, especially after his impressive win over Song Yadong. He notes Paiva is moving up from 125 lbs and has poor striking defense (51%) and a negative striking differential. He expects Phillips to mix in takedowns (3 per 15 min, 63% accuracy) and win a convincing decision, as Paiva has been taken down in every UFC fight except one. He considers this a step down in competition for Phillips.

"i like phillips quite a bit and i'm gonna take him to win by a very convincing decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Cody picks Phillips, calling him a legitimate top ten guy. He praises Phillips' fight IQ, striking, and wrestling, noting his performance against Song Yadong. He thinks Paiva's move up to 135 removes his size advantage and that Phillips is on a different level. He considers Phillips a safe parlay piece.

"i think phillips is the real deal like a legitimate top ten guy in this division"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Daniel Levi picks Kyler Phillips to win, acknowledging Paiva's toughness but believing Phillips is too clean and will edge a decision. He notes that Paiva is dangerous with nothing to lose, but Phillips' footwork and technique are superior. Levi expects a close fight but sees Phillips' skill set prevailing, though he wouldn't play the -300 line against Paiva.

"i kind of see kyler being a little bit too clean kind of edging the decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Jacob picks Kyler Phillips as his lock of the week, calling him the 'king of lock of the weeks.' He praises Phillips' fight IQ and wrestling, noting that he gets takedowns when needed. He believes Phillips will dominate with wrestling and timely takedowns. He is very confident despite the short-notice opponent moving up in weight.

"he's the lock of the week this week i don't care if he's a two to one two and a half to one there whatever he's the lock of the week kyla phillips"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Raulian Paiva

The host leans toward Raulian Paiva as a dog, noting his striking and Muay Thai. He believes Paiva's move to 135 pounds will benefit his cardio and durability. He thinks the line is too wide and Paiva can make it a close fight. He likes Paiva by decision at +455 and the moneyline at +240.

Paiva by decision +455; Paiva moneyline +240
"i like paiva in this spot as well plus 240 ish is a great line i'm gonna be taking a shot on the money line there myself"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Paiva's biggest advantage was his size at 125, which is gone at 135. He notes Paiva hasn't looked ultra impressive and arguably lost to Zalgus. He sees Phillips as a surgeon and expects him to win on the feet or ground.

"i definitely think tyler phillips wins this fight whether it's stand up or on the ground"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Kyler Phillips

The Guru confidently picks Phillips, citing his size advantage at bantamweight, chain takedown ability, and mixing strikes with takedowns. He notes Paiva is a short-notice replacement and likely views this as a free payday. He predicts a first-round rear-naked choke submission, as Paiva has been outgrappled before.

first round submission via rear-naked choke
"kyla phillips first round submission i really like kyla phillips"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raulian Paiva 0 52 of 121 42% 56 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 66 of 119 55% 73 of 126 2 of 11 18% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raulian Paiva 0 21 of 47 44% 21 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 19 of 41 46% 19 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:12
2 Raulian Paiva 0 16 of 40 40% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 27 of 44 61% 32 of 49 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:08
3 Raulian Paiva 0 15 of 34 44% 16 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 20 of 34 58% 22 of 36 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raulian Paiva 52 of 121 42% 14 of 71 22 of 31 16 of 19 51 of 119 1 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 66 of 119 55% 19 of 61 17 of 25 30 of 33 64 of 115 1 of 2 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raulian Paiva 21 of 47 44% 6 of 30 8 of 9 7 of 8 21 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 19 of 41 46% 5 of 25 6 of 6 8 of 10 19 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Raulian Paiva 16 of 40 40% 5 of 23 7 of 11 4 of 6 16 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 27 of 44 61% 7 of 20 9 of 13 11 of 11 25 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 2
3 Raulian Paiva 15 of 34 44% 3 of 18 7 of 11 5 of 5 14 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 20 of 34 58% 7 of 16 2 of 6 11 of 12 20 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Raulian Paiva

Big Brady picks Raulian Paiva by decision, noting he was not impressed with Zhumagulov's tape against lower competition. He believes Paiva is the better overall striker and will outpoint him, though he may not bet at -185.

"i just think paiva is the better overall striker and uh and yeah so i'm going to go pivot i think it's going to win a decision here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Raulian Paiva

Daniel Levi is very high on Raulian Paiva, calling him one of his favorite flyweight prospects. He praises Paiva's length, forward pressure, volume, and durability, noting he can take shots and has a good chin. He criticizes Zhumagulov as small for 125, easily bullied, and having a watered-down Russian style. Levi believes Paiva will push him back and dominate, possibly finishing him.

"I'm going with my top prospect which is Holly and Paiva I think he beats this kid up"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Raulian Paiva

Paiva has impressive length and striking, especially his kicking, which should give Zhumagulov issues closing the distance. Paiva is slowly coming into his own and has a win over a high-level fighter in earlier Santos. Expects Paiva to pick him apart on the feet and win by decision.

"I like Paiva's length and is striking here his kicking is very very impressive too"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

KO (punches) R2 4:42 · UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz 2 · Feb 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raulian Paiva 0 45 of 124 36% 45 of 124 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Mark De La Rosa 1 54 of 126 42% 67 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raulian Paiva 0 22 of 57 38% 22 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Mark De La Rosa 0 19 of 62 30% 31 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
2 Raulian Paiva 0 23 of 67 34% 23 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Mark De La Rosa 1 35 of 64 54% 36 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raulian Paiva 45 of 124 36% 21 of 91 15 of 24 9 of 9 44 of 122 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mark De La Rosa 54 of 126 42% 33 of 98 10 of 13 11 of 15 45 of 116 8 of 9 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raulian Paiva 22 of 57 38% 12 of 42 8 of 13 2 of 2 22 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mark De La Rosa 19 of 62 30% 14 of 52 2 of 5 3 of 5 17 of 59 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Raulian Paiva 23 of 67 34% 9 of 49 7 of 11 7 of 7 22 of 66 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mark De La Rosa 35 of 64 54% 19 of 46 8 of 8 8 of 10 28 of 57 6 of 6 1 of 1
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Raulian Paiva

Daniel Levi picks Raulian Paiva to win, likely by finish. He notes Paiva's height, reach, durability, and scrambling ability, while De La Rosa is smaller and makes mistakes in boxing. He believes Paiva is more ferocious and will overwhelm De La Rosa with left hooks and knees.

finish, possibly via left hook or knee
"I think Paiva comes in here and roles I think pyv was better than de la Rosa everywhere"
TKO (doctor stoppage) R1 2:56 · UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · Aug 10, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rogério Bontorin 0 8 of 15 53% 8 of 16 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:21
Raulian Paiva 0 3 of 15 20% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rogério Bontorin 0 8 of 15 53% 8 of 16 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:21
Raulian Paiva 0 3 of 15 20% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rogério Bontorin 8 of 15 53% 6 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 3 of 15 20% 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rogério Bontorin 8 of 15 53% 6 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 3 of 15 20% 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Kai Kara-France
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · Feb 10, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kai Kara-France 0 58 of 168 34% 60 of 170 2 of 7 28% 0 0 0:21
Raulian Paiva 0 67 of 184 36% 71 of 188 0 of 4 0% 1 0 1:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kai Kara-France 0 12 of 39 30% 12 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raulian Paiva 0 16 of 39 41% 16 of 39 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:16
2 Kai Kara-France 0 21 of 58 36% 23 of 60 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:03
Raulian Paiva 0 25 of 68 36% 29 of 72 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:23
3 Kai Kara-France 0 25 of 71 35% 25 of 71 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:18
Raulian Paiva 0 26 of 77 33% 26 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kai Kara-France 58 of 168 34% 33 of 134 17 of 24 8 of 10 55 of 164 1 of 2 2 of 2
Raulian Paiva 67 of 184 36% 36 of 140 21 of 33 10 of 11 61 of 170 1 of 4 5 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kai Kara-France 12 of 39 30% 6 of 30 5 of 7 1 of 2 12 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 16 of 39 41% 8 of 29 4 of 5 4 of 5 16 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kai Kara-France 21 of 58 36% 14 of 51 3 of 3 4 of 4 18 of 55 1 of 1 2 of 2
Raulian Paiva 25 of 68 36% 13 of 49 6 of 13 6 of 6 20 of 55 0 of 3 5 of 10
3 Kai Kara-France 25 of 71 35% 13 of 53 9 of 14 3 of 4 25 of 70 0 of 1 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 26 of 77 33% 15 of 62 11 of 15 0 of 0 25 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Angelo picks Sergey Morozov to win an ugly, fun fight. He highlights Morozov's counter-striking and grappling, noting that Paiva tends to run forward looking for a brawl, which plays into Morozov's counter-striking. He compares Morozov's potential success to Sean O'Malley's, who lit Paiva up with counters. He expects Morozov's grappling to also be a factor.

"i like marazzo off here to win an ugly and very fun fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Big Brady picks Sergey Morozov to win by decision, but with low confidence. He likes Morozov's path to victory via takedowns and control, noting Paiva's poor takedown defense (taken down by multiple opponents). However, he questions Morozov's chin (dropped three times in last fight, KO losses outside UFC) and submission defense. He thinks the fight could get sketchy and says he is staying away from betting it. He expects Morozov to grind out a decision.

"i'm going to take morozov to kind of grind this one out... but uh this one could get sketchy for sure"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Cody likes Morozov's power and boxing, and thinks Paiva's poor head movement and durability issues will lead to a knockout. He also mentions Morozov by KO as a prop.

Morozov by KO
"i gotta go with the guy with the better skill set here so sergey morozov and i'm kind of tempted to maybe maybe take a shot on morse off by knockout yeah"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

Paul agrees, noting Paiva's weight cut issues and the damage he's taken. He thinks Morozov will get back on track.

"i think morozov gets on back on track in this spot as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sergey Morozov

The host picks Sergey Morozov, calling it the toughest fight to predict. He notes Morozov's grappling advantage and believes he will use takedowns to control the fight. He expects a finish in the second round, citing Morozov's experience against good opponents like Umar Nurmagomedov. He is not confident in Paiva's improvements.

second round finish prediction
"i am going to go with sergey morrisov here"