Career Averages - Sergey Morozov
Career Averages - Raulian Paiva
Sergey Morozov
Raulian Paiva
Sergey Morozov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergey Morozov | 0 | 30 of 105 | 28% | 65 of 145 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 6:59 |
| Journey Newson | 0 | 26 of 106 | 24% | 49 of 136 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 12 of 43 | 27% | 16 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Journey Newson | 0 | 10 of 47 | 21% | 11 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 11 of 38 | 28% | 21 of 49 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Journey Newson | 0 | 8 of 32 | 25% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 28 of 49 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
| Journey Newson | 0 | 8 of 27 | 29% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergey Morozov | 30 of 105 | 28% | 7 of 76 | 8 of 12 | 15 of 17 | 16 of 88 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 6 |
| Journey Newson | 26 of 106 | 24% | 10 of 78 | 7 of 14 | 9 of 14 | 25 of 104 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergey Morozov | 12 of 43 | 27% | 4 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 37 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
| Journey Newson | 10 of 47 | 21% | 6 of 40 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sergey Morozov | 11 of 38 | 28% | 2 of 25 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
| Journey Newson | 8 of 32 | 25% | 0 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 9 | 8 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sergey Morozov | 7 of 24 | 29% | 1 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Journey Newson | 8 of 27 | 29% | 4 of 20 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo gives a slight lean to Sergey Morozov, citing his better takedown defense and ability to stop takedown attempts while getting his own. However, he notes that Journey Newson looked incredible in his last fight and that version could beat Sergey. He believes this should be a 50/50 fight and plans to find a way to bet on Journey Newson as well.
Big Brady likes Morozov to win but is hesitant due to durability concerns, noting Morozov has been finished in four of five losses and gets hurt often. However, he thinks Newson isn't a big power puncher so it shouldn't be a major issue. He expects Morozov to mix in takedowns and grind out a three-round decision. He can't get behind the moneyline at -300 but picks Morozov by decision.
Cody picks Morozov, noting his wrestling and well-rounded skills. He thinks Newson is a boxer with limited MMA skills and Morozov will take him down and control him. He expects a decision win but acknowledges a finish is possible.
Connor picks Morozov, noting he is a high-level fighter with an aggressive, put-together game. He thinks Morozov will be the aggressive one, come forward, wrestle, and land combinations. He notes Newson is not durable and his game seems experimental.
Paul picks Morozov, agreeing with Cody. He thinks Morozov's wrestling will be too much for Newson. He notes Newson's only path is a puncher's chance. He is not excited about the price but sees Morozov as a safe pick.
The MMA Guru picks Sergey Morozov over Journey Newson, citing Morozov's size and strength advantage. He notes that Newson is too small for bantamweight at 5'5" and expects Morozov to implement a grappling clinic. However, he expresses concern about Morozov's chin, as he has been hurt in recent fights by Halley and Paver and Douglas Silva de Andrade. Despite this, he trusts Morozov's grappling to get the job done, as Newson is not a consistent one-punch KO threat at bantamweight.
Zane picks Morozov, noting he has more options in exchanges and can punch his way into takedowns. He thinks Newson is not comfortable in protracted exchanges and Morozov will press his wrestling advantage. He also mentions Morozov might block a kick and knock Newson out.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergey Morozov | 0 | 63 of 142 | 44% | 63 of 142 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 68 of 127 | 53% | 82 of 143 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 39 of 76 | 51% | 39 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 32 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:51 | |
| 3 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 16 of 50 | 32% | 16 of 50 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 30 of 56 | 53% | 33 of 59 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergey Morozov | 63 of 142 | 44% | 51 of 120 | 10 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 62 of 140 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Raulian Paiva | 68 of 127 | 53% | 56 of 113 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 66 of 122 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergey Morozov | 39 of 76 | 51% | 31 of 63 | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 39 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 52 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sergey Morozov | 8 of 16 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Raulian Paiva | 7 of 14 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Sergey Morozov | 16 of 50 | 32% | 13 of 43 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 30 of 56 | 53% | 25 of 50 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 30 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Sergey Morozov to win an ugly, fun fight. He highlights Morozov's counter-striking and grappling, noting that Paiva tends to run forward looking for a brawl, which plays into Morozov's counter-striking. He compares Morozov's potential success to Sean O'Malley's, who lit Paiva up with counters. He expects Morozov's grappling to also be a factor.
Big Brady picks Sergey Morozov to win by decision, but with low confidence. He likes Morozov's path to victory via takedowns and control, noting Paiva's poor takedown defense (taken down by multiple opponents). However, he questions Morozov's chin (dropped three times in last fight, KO losses outside UFC) and submission defense. He thinks the fight could get sketchy and says he is staying away from betting it. He expects Morozov to grind out a decision.
Cody likes Morozov's power and boxing, and thinks Paiva's poor head movement and durability issues will lead to a knockout. He also mentions Morozov by KO as a prop.
Paul agrees, noting Paiva's weight cut issues and the damage he's taken. He thinks Morozov will get back on track.
The host picks Sergey Morozov, calling it the toughest fight to predict. He notes Morozov's grappling advantage and believes he will use takedowns to control the fight. He expects a finish in the second round, citing Morozov's experience against good opponents like Umar Nurmagomedov. He is not confident in Paiva's improvements.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 3 | 37 of 64 | 57% | 57 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Sergey Morozov | 1 | 32 of 65 | 49% | 62 of 99 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 28 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sergey Morozov | 1 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 53 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | |
| 2 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 3 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Sergey Morozov | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 25 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 37 of 64 | 57% | 16 of 40 | 12 of 14 | 9 of 10 | 31 of 56 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Sergey Morozov | 32 of 65 | 49% | 24 of 56 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 15 of 30 | 50% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergey Morozov | 23 of 40 | 57% | 19 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 | |
| 2 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 22 of 34 | 64% | 10 of 21 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 26 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Sergey Morozov | 9 of 25 | 36% | 5 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Morozov due to his wrestling advantage, noting that Andrade has been taken down in every loss. He believes Morozov can hang with Andrade's power, set a hard pace, and mix in takedowns to win a unanimous decision. He acknowledges Andrade's experience but thinks Morozov's pressure and top control will be decisive.
Big Brady is impressed with Morozov's well-rounded game, especially his fight IQ and takedown ability. He notes Morozov showed good striking against Khalid Taha and took him down six times. Brady believes Morozov will take down Silva de Andrade multiple times and control him on the mat, leading to a decision win. He also points out Silva de Andrade is 36 and has only one submission win, relying mostly on knockouts.
Cody picks Morozov, citing his high-level regional experience and grinding style. He notes Silva de Andrade has poor takedown defense and that Morozov can exploit that. He expects Morozov to take him down and control the fight.
Daniel Levi picks Sergey Morozov by decision. He notes that Morozov showed big improvements in his last fight and that his clinch and pressure will be key. Silva de Andrade has holes in the clinch and tends to rest. Levi believes Morozov will work harder and win a decision.
Morozov has a clear grappling advantage and should dominate de Andrade on the ground. De Andrade has shown vulnerability to wrestlers in the past, struggling to get up from under opponents like Henan Barou. Morozov trains at American Top Team and has sharp boxing to close distance. The only way de Andrade wins is by knockout, but Morozov's chin and unorthodox striking make that unlikely. Already placed 3 units and may add more.
Paul admits he hasn't watched tape on this fight and defers to Cody's analysis. He doesn't make a clear pick.
The MMA Guru picks Sergey Morozov, citing his grappling pressure and ability to slow down Douglas Silva de Andrade, who tends to fade. He notes Morozov's strong M1 Challenge background and believes he can secure a third-round rear-naked choke finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergey Morozov | 0 | 33 of 123 | 26% | 66 of 158 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalid Taha | 0 | 50 of 103 | 48% | 99 of 159 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 8:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 3 of 19 | 15% | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalid Taha | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 21 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 | |
| 2 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 19 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalid Taha | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 33 of 51 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 2:53 | |
| 3 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 18 of 69 | 26% | 24 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalid Taha | 0 | 25 of 52 | 48% | 45 of 73 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergey Morozov | 33 of 123 | 26% | 9 of 82 | 12 of 25 | 12 of 16 | 30 of 117 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
| Khalid Taha | 50 of 103 | 48% | 45 of 94 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 33 of 81 | 6 of 7 | 11 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergey Morozov | 3 of 19 | 15% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Khalid Taha | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | |
| 2 | Sergey Morozov | 12 of 35 | 34% | 3 of 20 | 3 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalid Taha | 17 of 33 | 51% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | |
| 3 | Sergey Morozov | 18 of 69 | 26% | 5 of 51 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 64 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalid Taha | 25 of 52 | 48% | 22 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 45 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Cody leans towards Sergey Morozov as a live underdog, citing his ring IQ and wrestling. He believes Morozov can take Khalid Taha down and grind him out, exploiting Taha's poor takedown defense and cardio. He notes that Taha is explosive and heavy-handed, but if Morozov implements the right game plan, he can win.
Paul passes on this fight, calling it a 'dogger pass'. He is not sure if he will bet it and prefers to wait for weigh-ins. He acknowledges that Taha could come out looking strong, but he doesn't commit to a pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 25 of 41 | 60% | 32 of 48 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 | 0 | 2:57 |
| Sergey Morozov | 0 | 7 of 30 | 23% | 8 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 15 of 25 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Sergey Morozov | 0 | 3 of 20 | 15% | 3 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 14 of 20 | 70% | 17 of 23 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:49 |
| Sergey Morozov | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 25 of 41 | 60% | 14 of 25 | 4 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 18 of 34 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Sergey Morozov | 7 of 30 | 23% | 2 of 20 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 11 of 21 | 52% | 3 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergey Morozov | 3 of 20 | 15% | 1 of 14 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 14 of 20 | 70% | 11 of 14 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Sergey Morozov | 4 of 10 | 40% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady acknowledges that Sergey Morozov is a solid fighter but believes Umar Nurmagomedov's takedowns and top control will be decisive. He notes that Morozov has been submitted and knocked out before, and that Nurmagomedov is very good at getting takedowns early. He predicts a decision win for Nurmagomedov, possibly 30-27, but calls the -550 line a bit crazy.
The host likes Umar's diverse kicking game and fluid stand-up, but is hesitant due to the steep -400 line and Umar being a UFC debutant. He thinks Umar's takedowns and ground control will lead to a decision win, but wants to see him against established UFC competition before betting heavily.
The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite being tempted by the +500 odds on Morozov. He acknowledges Morozov is a good fighter who avenged a previous loss, but believes Umar is equally good on the feet and on the ground, with a great team behind him. He predicts a close fight but expects Umar to do enough to win each round, resulting in a 30-27 unanimous decision. He notes Umar's reach advantage and sneaky front kick.
Raulian Paiva - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergey Morozov | 0 | 63 of 142 | 44% | 63 of 142 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 68 of 127 | 53% | 82 of 143 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 39 of 76 | 51% | 39 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 32 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:51 | |
| 3 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 16 of 50 | 32% | 16 of 50 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 30 of 56 | 53% | 33 of 59 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergey Morozov | 63 of 142 | 44% | 51 of 120 | 10 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 62 of 140 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Raulian Paiva | 68 of 127 | 53% | 56 of 113 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 66 of 122 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergey Morozov | 39 of 76 | 51% | 31 of 63 | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 39 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 52 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sergey Morozov | 8 of 16 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Raulian Paiva | 7 of 14 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Sergey Morozov | 16 of 50 | 32% | 13 of 43 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 30 of 56 | 53% | 25 of 50 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 30 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Sergey Morozov to win an ugly, fun fight. He highlights Morozov's counter-striking and grappling, noting that Paiva tends to run forward looking for a brawl, which plays into Morozov's counter-striking. He compares Morozov's potential success to Sean O'Malley's, who lit Paiva up with counters. He expects Morozov's grappling to also be a factor.
Big Brady picks Sergey Morozov to win by decision, but with low confidence. He likes Morozov's path to victory via takedowns and control, noting Paiva's poor takedown defense (taken down by multiple opponents). However, he questions Morozov's chin (dropped three times in last fight, KO losses outside UFC) and submission defense. He thinks the fight could get sketchy and says he is staying away from betting it. He expects Morozov to grind out a decision.
Cody likes Morozov's power and boxing, and thinks Paiva's poor head movement and durability issues will lead to a knockout. He also mentions Morozov by KO as a prop.
Paul agrees, noting Paiva's weight cut issues and the damage he's taken. He thinks Morozov will get back on track.
The host picks Sergey Morozov, calling it the toughest fight to predict. He notes Morozov's grappling advantage and believes he will use takedowns to control the fight. He expects a finish in the second round, citing Morozov's experience against good opponents like Umar Nurmagomedov. He is not confident in Paiva's improvements.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 11 of 47 | 23% | 11 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raulian Paiva | 1 | 39 of 62 | 62% | 40 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 11 of 47 | 23% | 11 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raulian Paiva | 1 | 39 of 62 | 62% | 40 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 11 of 47 | 23% | 2 of 32 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 39 of 62 | 62% | 28 of 50 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 11 of 47 | 23% | 2 of 32 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 39 of 62 | 62% | 28 of 50 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Kicking off the main card of UFC 269 is an unranked bantamweight pairing between ex-flyweight Paiva (21-3, 3-2 UFC) and the fluorescently haired O’Malley (14-1, 6-1 UFC). The Octagon ranger for this one is referee Jason Herzog, and there is no interest in a glove touch as they would rather introduce themselves to one another with their fists. O’Malley comes out switching his stances back and forth, and Paiva swings and misses at his elusive foe. Paiva kicks low, and he catches a front kick to the body so he can close in and get his hands on the American. O’Malley darts out of the way, and he fakes with a jab only to have his leg kicked. O’Malley stomp-kicks his foe’s knee, and he sticks out a single jab that split the guard. The ball of O’Malley’s foot clatters square into Paiva’s groin, and we draw a pause for a few seconds. Paiva is set to resume before long, and O’Malley backs away and starts lining jabs up. Paiva scores a quick calf kick that makes O’Malley changes stances, and he completes a short combination with an overhand right. O’Malley gathers himself and flicks his jabs out a few more times, keeping his range from a safe distance while Paiva gives chase. A sniper shot of a left hand snaps Paiva’s head back, but it is one-and-done as Paiva keeps walking him down. The Brazilian swipes out with a left hand, and as chants rain down for O’Malley, Paiva chips at his calf. O’Malley gets off a push kick to the midsection, only for Paiva to hack at his lead leg a few more times. “Sugar” strings together a clean combination that surprises Paiva and may have marked his nose up. Paiva recommits to the low calf kick, and he reaches out with the end of a right hook to glance off O’Malley’s jaw. They land strikes at the same time and appear no worse for wear, and O’Malley follows it up with a blistering right hand. Paiva leans back into the wall, and O’Malley tees off on him against the wire as Paiva is barely able to stay on his feet. Paiva never gets a chance to recover, as O’Malley rips the body and then smashes Paiva in the face with sharp, accurate strikes until Paiva falls over. The Brazilian springs back up, but he is still on rubber legs, and O’Malley continues to work him over. A left to the body and a right to the head spell the beginning of the end for Paiva, as O’Malley swarms him with a vigorous crescendo of punches until Paiva's knees give out and Herzog steps in. This is an impressive performance for a kid who has star power for days. In his post-fight interview, O'Malley admits that he was very close to withdrawing from the fight due to a serious rib injury, but he made it to fight night and put on a show.
The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Raulian Paiva R1 4:42 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady is confident in Sean O'Malley winning by knockout. He highlights O'Malley's massive striking advantage, with high volume and accuracy, while Paiva has poor striking defense and gets hit more than he lands. Paiva rarely shoots takedowns and has low takedown accuracy, so O'Malley should be able to keep the fight standing. Brady is unimpressed with Paiva's competition and believes O'Malley will finish him.
Daniel Levi picks Sean O'Malley to win but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He praises O'Malley's striking diversity and volume but questions his defensive and mental toughness when facing adversity. Levi notes Paiva's heart and durability, referencing his comeback win over Kyler Phillips. He worries about O'Malley's compromised leg (from the Chito fight) and Paiva's ability to capitalize if O'Malley gets hurt. Levi says he might take a half-unit shot on Paiva but ultimately picks O'Malley.
O'Malley has the striking advantage and power to finish, but Paiva is durable and has a path via takedowns. However, Paiva's striking defense is suspect, and O'Malley will counter effectively. The under 2.5 rounds is a good bet, as O'Malley likely gets a first-round KO.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley to win by second-round TKO via a spinning back kick to the body. He believes O'Malley's reach, height, and striking advantage will be too much for Paiva. He notes O'Malley's underrated ground game and training with Kyla Phillips, who recently fought Paiva. He predicts O'Malley will hurt Paiva early and finish him with body shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 1 | 74 of 132 | 56% | 95 of 155 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 3:02 |
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 51 of 117 | 43% | 72 of 147 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 1 | 45 of 70 | 64% | 61 of 86 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:01 |
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 19 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 23 of 47 | 48% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 3 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 30 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 74 of 132 | 56% | 62 of 115 | 7 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 43 of 95 | 8 of 9 | 23 of 28 |
| Kyler Phillips | 51 of 117 | 43% | 37 of 96 | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 102 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 45 of 70 | 64% | 41 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 23 of 28 |
| Kyler Phillips | 13 of 32 | 40% | 9 of 28 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 13 of 28 | 46% | 9 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyler Phillips | 23 of 47 | 48% | 17 of 38 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 38 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raulian Paiva | 16 of 34 | 47% | 12 of 28 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyler Phillips | 15 of 38 | 39% | 11 of 30 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Two top-flight teams will wage a proxy battle as the MMA Lab’s Phillips (9-1, 3-0 UFC) faces ex-flyweight and Team Alpha Male rep Paiva (20-3, 2-2 UFC) at bantamweight. The co-main event will tolerate zero nonsense as it draws oversight from referee Keith Peterson, and the gloves are touched to clock in this fight. Paiva is quick on the draw, with a few crisp punches when Phillips tries to close the distance. Phillips opens up with kicks, and he cracks the Brazilian with a right hand. Phillips opens up with a flying knee, and when he lands, he spins with a back fist that glances off the target. Paiva appears to have recovered from the big blow and partial knockdown to throw at Phillips, but “The Matrix” enters the matrix as he dodges several strikes and ducks down to clash heads with his advancing opponent. Phillips kicks the body, and his leg is caught and he takes two right hands and succumbs to a takedown from the position. When Phillips walks up the fence, he is able to spin around and spin Paiva around with a kimura. Phillips lifts his foe up in the air and slams him down like he was carrying groceries, and he lets Paiva up so that he can land a flashy kick to the body. Paiva appears unflustered and he walks Phillips down, but he eats a fierce right hand that hurts him. Another wobbles Paiva, who shoots in for a single and is stuffed. Phillips makes him pay with several punches, until the Brazilian bails on it and stands up. Phillips kicks him in the head, and spins around with a heel kick that clacks on the side of Paiva’s head. Paiva allows him to land the strike so that Phillips falls to the ground without any balance, and he climbs into Phillips’ guard to slow things down. Paiva postures up and lands a few long punches, but Phillips is quick to reverse him and put Paiva on his back. Phillips takes side control, and slices over to mount but is pulled back to half guard in an exchange. Paiva eats an elbow, scrambles back to his knees, takes another elbow, and stands back up. When Paiva stands back up, Phillips rocks him with another brutal right hand, and the Brazilian pushes for a desperation takedown. Paiva can barely stand, and Phillips cracks him with another right hand. A nasty elbow cracks the Brazilian on the jaw, and he collapses in a heap. The fight not quite over, Phillips dives in to finish the job. He continues to club Paiva with everything he has, and Paiva miraculously survives to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Phillips
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-8 Phillips
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Phillips
Round 2
The gloves are touched to begin the round, and Paiva comes out of his corner swinging for the bleachers. Phillips spins with a wheel kick to try to throw things off, and Paiva drops down to pursue a takedown. As soon as Phillips drops to a knee, he rolls for a leglock, and Paiva abandons the position before anything gets set up. Both men get back to their feet, and Phillips is ready with pep in his step and a blistering elbow square on the chin. Paiva takes it flush and fires back with a straight right hand, knocking Phillips off of his feet. Paiva sees that Phillips may be hurt and a little gassed, and he chases Phillips around the cage and unloads a fury at him. Paiva scores a clean uppercut that stings Phillips badly, and even though he may be bloodied and has taken some damage, he appears the fresher man and ignores a flying knee when Phillips tries to recover. Paiva pursues a takedown, and when Phillips fights it off, the latter takes a very deep breath before the midpoint of the round. Phillips dives forward for a tackle takedown, landing it and putting the Brazilian on his back. Paiva scoots his way to the fence, and he calmly stands back up while Phillips tries to keep him down. Paiva is able to break free, and he lands a one-two as Phillips is tiring fast. Paiva ducks a punch and grabs a body lock to try to plant “The Matrix” on the ground, but Phillips stops it and lands a spinning back elbow. When Paiva looks to do some damage with a right hand, Phillips evades it, grabs the back and drags Paiva down to the ground. Phillips takes back control and fishes for a choke, but Paiva rolls through to his knees. Phillips flattens Paiva out to set up a choke, and Paiva turns and nearly gives up mount. Phillips turns to try to get a better position, and he is forced to stand up. Phillips smashes Paiva in the face with a huge right hand, and Paiva eats it like an acai bowl and blasts Phillips back with one of his own. The spent fighters end the round pressed against the wall.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Paiva
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Paiva
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Paiva
Round 3
The bantamweight battle well worth the price of admission, both men touch gloves to begin the last round. Whose cardio is better is anyone’s guess. Paiva starts the dance with a few jabs, and Phillips comes back at him with a long right hand and a possible takedown entry. Paiva stuffs it without much effort and connects with a right hand that wobbles Phillips. Paiva opens up with a right and a left as Phillips bears down on him to take him down, stopping the attempt before it gets too far. Phillips shrugs off a right hand on the jaw to duck down low for a single, and both men fall to the ground with neither in an advantageous position. Phillips ducks face-first into an uppercut, and Paiva lays into him with a few punches but cannot hurt him. Phillips sells out with a huge right hand, and the two fighters are so wiped out, they are slipping all over the cage and wobbling after every punch. Phillips escapes a few strikes but takes some more when Paiva gives chase, and Phillips attacks with a spinning kick that is well short of the mark. Phillips goes all-in for a double leg takedown, scooping the Brazilian’s legs out beneath him bot not able to ground him for long. Paiva scores a right hand only to get pursued with another takedown, and Paiva grits it out and turns him around to take him down. Phillips defends with his legs to set up a reversal, but he does not have the energy to land it and instead is stuck on his back while Paiva is on top of him. The Brazilian holds on tight, not wanting “The Matrix” to get off any more wild strikes on his feet, and he gets off some ground-and-pound to stay busy. Paiva in half guard continues to control his opponent and land effective if not damaging punches. At the 10-second clapper, Phillips explodes to his feet and is ready to brawl. Phillips smashes his fist into the granite chin of Paiva, and Paiva throws everything he has back at his foe. One final flurry ends the fight, and this one could be close – close enough to be dead even, depending on how the judges see the rounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Paiva (28-28)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Paiva (28-28)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Paiva (28-28)
The Official Result
Raulian Paiva def. Kyler Phillips via Majority Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
Angelo picks Raulian Paiva because he thinks Paiva is a real threat on the ground with jiu-jitsu and is a good striker. He notes that Kyler Phillips has wrestling and fight IQ, but Paiva could cause problems. He is not confident and is not betting on this fight. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting a decision.
Big Brady is very high on Kyler Phillips, especially after his impressive win over Song Yadong. He notes Paiva is moving up from 125 lbs and has poor striking defense (51%) and a negative striking differential. He expects Phillips to mix in takedowns (3 per 15 min, 63% accuracy) and win a convincing decision, as Paiva has been taken down in every UFC fight except one. He considers this a step down in competition for Phillips.
Cody picks Phillips, calling him a legitimate top ten guy. He praises Phillips' fight IQ, striking, and wrestling, noting his performance against Song Yadong. He thinks Paiva's move up to 135 removes his size advantage and that Phillips is on a different level. He considers Phillips a safe parlay piece.
Daniel Levi picks Kyler Phillips to win, acknowledging Paiva's toughness but believing Phillips is too clean and will edge a decision. He notes that Paiva is dangerous with nothing to lose, but Phillips' footwork and technique are superior. Levi expects a close fight but sees Phillips' skill set prevailing, though he wouldn't play the -300 line against Paiva.
Jacob picks Kyler Phillips as his lock of the week, calling him the 'king of lock of the weeks.' He praises Phillips' fight IQ and wrestling, noting that he gets takedowns when needed. He believes Phillips will dominate with wrestling and timely takedowns. He is very confident despite the short-notice opponent moving up in weight.
The host leans toward Raulian Paiva as a dog, noting his striking and Muay Thai. He believes Paiva's move to 135 pounds will benefit his cardio and durability. He thinks the line is too wide and Paiva can make it a close fight. He likes Paiva by decision at +455 and the moneyline at +240.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Paiva's biggest advantage was his size at 125, which is gone at 135. He notes Paiva hasn't looked ultra impressive and arguably lost to Zalgus. He sees Phillips as a surgeon and expects him to win on the feet or ground.
The Guru confidently picks Phillips, citing his size advantage at bantamweight, chain takedown ability, and mixing strikes with takedowns. He notes Paiva is a short-notice replacement and likely views this as a free payday. He predicts a first-round rear-naked choke submission, as Paiva has been outgrappled before.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 52 of 121 | 42% | 56 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 66 of 119 | 55% | 73 of 126 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 21 of 47 | 44% | 21 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 19 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 32 of 49 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 52 of 121 | 42% | 14 of 71 | 22 of 31 | 16 of 19 | 51 of 119 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 66 of 119 | 55% | 19 of 61 | 17 of 25 | 30 of 33 | 64 of 115 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 21 of 47 | 44% | 6 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 21 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 19 of 41 | 46% | 5 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 16 of 40 | 40% | 5 of 23 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 27 of 44 | 61% | 7 of 20 | 9 of 13 | 11 of 11 | 25 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Raulian Paiva | 15 of 34 | 44% | 3 of 18 | 7 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 20 of 34 | 58% | 7 of 16 | 2 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Raulian Paiva by decision, noting he was not impressed with Zhumagulov's tape against lower competition. He believes Paiva is the better overall striker and will outpoint him, though he may not bet at -185.
Daniel Levi is very high on Raulian Paiva, calling him one of his favorite flyweight prospects. He praises Paiva's length, forward pressure, volume, and durability, noting he can take shots and has a good chin. He criticizes Zhumagulov as small for 125, easily bullied, and having a watered-down Russian style. Levi believes Paiva will push him back and dominate, possibly finishing him.
Paiva has impressive length and striking, especially his kicking, which should give Zhumagulov issues closing the distance. Paiva is slowly coming into his own and has a win over a high-level fighter in earlier Santos. Expects Paiva to pick him apart on the feet and win by decision.
The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 45 of 124 | 36% | 45 of 124 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 1 | 54 of 126 | 42% | 67 of 139 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 22 of 57 | 38% | 22 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 0 | 19 of 62 | 30% | 31 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:06 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 23 of 67 | 34% | 23 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 1 | 35 of 64 | 54% | 36 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 45 of 124 | 36% | 21 of 91 | 15 of 24 | 9 of 9 | 44 of 122 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 54 of 126 | 42% | 33 of 98 | 10 of 13 | 11 of 15 | 45 of 116 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 22 of 57 | 38% | 12 of 42 | 8 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 19 of 62 | 30% | 14 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 17 of 59 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 23 of 67 | 34% | 9 of 49 | 7 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mark De La Rosa | 35 of 64 | 54% | 19 of 46 | 8 of 8 | 8 of 10 | 28 of 57 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Daniel Levi picks Raulian Paiva to win, likely by finish. He notes Paiva's height, reach, durability, and scrambling ability, while De La Rosa is smaller and makes mistakes in boxing. He believes Paiva is more ferocious and will overwhelm De La Rosa with left hooks and knees.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 16 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 16 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 58 of 168 | 34% | 60 of 170 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 67 of 184 | 36% | 71 of 188 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 0 | 12 of 39 | 30% | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Kai Kara-France | 0 | 21 of 58 | 36% | 23 of 60 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 25 of 68 | 36% | 29 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:23 | |
| 3 | Kai Kara-France | 0 | 25 of 71 | 35% | 25 of 71 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 26 of 77 | 33% | 26 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 58 of 168 | 34% | 33 of 134 | 17 of 24 | 8 of 10 | 55 of 164 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Raulian Paiva | 67 of 184 | 36% | 36 of 140 | 21 of 33 | 10 of 11 | 61 of 170 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 12 of 39 | 30% | 6 of 30 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 16 of 39 | 41% | 8 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kai Kara-France | 21 of 58 | 36% | 14 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Raulian Paiva | 25 of 68 | 36% | 13 of 49 | 6 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 5 of 10 | |
| 3 | Kai Kara-France | 25 of 71 | 35% | 13 of 53 | 9 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 26 of 77 | 33% | 15 of 62 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (5)
Angelo picks Sergey Morozov to win an ugly, fun fight. He highlights Morozov's counter-striking and grappling, noting that Paiva tends to run forward looking for a brawl, which plays into Morozov's counter-striking. He compares Morozov's potential success to Sean O'Malley's, who lit Paiva up with counters. He expects Morozov's grappling to also be a factor.
Big Brady picks Sergey Morozov to win by decision, but with low confidence. He likes Morozov's path to victory via takedowns and control, noting Paiva's poor takedown defense (taken down by multiple opponents). However, he questions Morozov's chin (dropped three times in last fight, KO losses outside UFC) and submission defense. He thinks the fight could get sketchy and says he is staying away from betting it. He expects Morozov to grind out a decision.
Cody likes Morozov's power and boxing, and thinks Paiva's poor head movement and durability issues will lead to a knockout. He also mentions Morozov by KO as a prop.
Paul agrees, noting Paiva's weight cut issues and the damage he's taken. He thinks Morozov will get back on track.
The host picks Sergey Morozov, calling it the toughest fight to predict. He notes Morozov's grappling advantage and believes he will use takedowns to control the fight. He expects a finish in the second round, citing Morozov's experience against good opponents like Umar Nurmagomedov. He is not confident in Paiva's improvements.
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