vs
-118 +115
UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Next Fight
Age 36
Height 6' 4"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 6' 3"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 243 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Josh Parisian
4.55 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.88 SApM
41.0% Str. Def.
0.98 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
46.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Alan Baudot
5.36 SLpM
58.0% Str. Acc.
4.82 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
62.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Josh Parisian
Moneyline
BetWay -118
KO/TKO
BetWay +350
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
BetRivers +300
Alan Baudot
Moneyline
DraftKings +115
KO/TKO
DraftKings +200
Submission
FanDuel +1800
Decision
DraftKings +450
Josh Parisian - Fight History
TKO (punches) R1 0:18 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robelis Despaigne 1 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Josh Parisian 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robelis Despaigne 1 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Josh Parisian 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robelis Despaigne 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Josh Parisian 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robelis Despaigne 7 of 9 77% 7 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Josh Parisian 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Angelo picks Robelis Despaigne despite it being his UFC debut, citing his Olympic taekwondo background, insane power, and 19-second cumulative knockout time in his last three fights. He acknowledges Parisian is durable and has experience, but believes Parisian lacks one-punch power to hurt Despaigne. He considers a high-risk parlay with Despaigne.

Might include Despaigne in a high-risk parlay.
"I do have to go robell here and I I might do a high-risk parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne to win by first-round knockout in under 60 seconds. He notes Despaigne's incredible reach and power, and that all his fights have ended quickly. He believes Josh Parisian will try to strike with Despaigne and get knocked out. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Despaigne's fight time under 4.75 minutes.

win by first round knockout; PrizePicks: fight time under 4.75 minutes
"give me desban first round knockout this fight should be hilarious for as long as it lasts which I don't think it lasts too long"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Cody is intrigued by Despaigne's physical attributes and knockout power but notes his lack of experience and questionable grappling. He thinks Despaigne will likely knock out Parisian early, but at -330, he's not confident enough to bet heavily.

"I guess I'll pick Rellis but he could be so bad like it's weird"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Daniel picks Despaigne via knockout, citing his athleticism, reach, and power. He notes Parisian is a bottom-of-the-barrel heavyweight and Despaigne is too athletic for him. However, he warns that if Parisian gets double underhooks and takes it past round one, Despaigne could gas out. He expects a quick knockout.

by knockout
"I'm gon go robless here via knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Despaigne has insane power and speed, but there is not enough film on him against legitimate competition. He was held up against the cage in his debut, and his takedown defense is untested. Parisian has good durability, forward pressure, and a grinding style that could wear on Despaigne. If Parisian can survive the first couple minutes of each round and get his cage grind going, he is live to win. I have no confidence in the chalky spot on Despaigne, so I lean Parisian by decision.

"I can't muster up the uh the the confidence to bet perisian either I do have to just by principal kind of just lean on the pran side here and pick him to win this matchup by being able to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Paul thinks Despaigne is a fraud waiting to be exposed. He notes that Parisian is a big heavyweight who can take Despaigne down and grind on him. He believes if Parisian can survive the first round, he has a good chance to win.

"I'm gonna take Josh perisian and it'll be the PRP pick of the week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Robelis Despaigne, mocking Josh Parisian's physique and conditioning. He notes Despaigne is an Olympic medalist in Taekwondo with a massive reach and athleticism, while Parisian is out of shape and has been finished by lower-level heavyweights. He predicts a TKO victory.

TKO
"I think Rob Ellis despain is going to mess up Josh perisian so badly ... I'm gonna go with him to win this fight TKO"
LOSS vs Martin Buday
Submission (kimura) R1 4:11 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Martin Buday 0 26 of 61 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Josh Parisian 0 42 of 67 62% 62 of 91 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Martin Buday 0 26 of 61 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Josh Parisian 0 42 of 67 62% 62 of 91 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Martin Buday 26 of 61 42% 15 of 49 6 of 7 5 of 5 20 of 47 6 of 14 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 42 of 67 62% 35 of 60 7 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 49 14 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Martin Buday 26 of 61 42% 15 of 49 6 of 7 5 of 5 20 of 47 6 of 14 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 42 of 67 62% 35 of 60 7 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 49 14 of 18 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Angelo picks Buday fairly confidently, noting Buday has power, solid footwork, and better cardio. He thinks Buday should be the better striker and have takedown defense to keep it standing. He expects a decision win and suggests looking at round lines, possibly over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds (if line drops)
"Martin should win this fight I'm fairly confident in him and this is likely a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by decision, but is very hesitant. He notes Buday's skills (brown belt in BJJ, good top game) but criticizes his game plan of holding opponents against the cage and not using takedowns. He points out that Buday has attempted zero takedowns in his three UFC fights. He believes Buday could easily win if he wrestles, but doubts he will. He calls the fight 'disgusting' and says he wants nothing to do with it.

"give me budai budai by decision but this is a fight that I really want nothing to do with I mean this is a disgusting fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Cody picks Buday, expecting a boring decision. He notes Buday's style of clinching and controlling against the cage, and that Parisian has poor cardio and has been taken down easily. He thinks Buday will win by volume and control, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds and Buday by decision. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Over 2.5 rounds (-125); Buday by decision (+165); Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"party Marty by volume by holding up against the cage maybe get some takedowns if he wants to"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

James sees value on Parisian at +180, calling Buday a 'cage push or bust' fighter who gassed against Jake Collier. He thinks Parisian might not gas as badly and the fight is closer than the odds suggest. However, he is not confident due to the volatility and may not bet it.

"I think Josh Parisian is value here... will I bet on him? That's different."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Buday is on an 11-fight winning streak and wears on opponents in the clinch, taking them down and doing damage from top. Parisian is an average heavyweight with one speed and alternating wins and losses. Buday's hard-nosed approach and tight striking defense should allow him to pull away late and win by decision. However, the line at -200 is a bit wide as Parisian could have grappling success.

Buday by decision
"I fully expect budai to get his hand raised by decision in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Martin Buday

Paul picks Buday, agreeing it will be a slow heavyweight fight. He notes Parisian's poor performances and that Buday is younger and more effective in the clinch. He thinks Buday by decision is likely and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He also mentions Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Over 2.5 rounds; Buday by decision; Buday over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"the official pick would be budai by decision but like it's gonna be super super ugly"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Martin Buday

The MMA Guru picks Martin Buday over Josh Parisian, stating that Parisian is dangerous but Buday has better conditioning, clinch work, and cardio for a heavyweight. He notes Buday's controversial win over Lukasz Brzeski and his performance against Jake Collier. He expects Buday to outwork Parisian against the cage and in the clinch, leading to a decision or late finish.

"I'm going with Tom Segura okay Martin bidet is gonna win this fight against Josh Parisian"
LOSS vs Jamal Pogues
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamal Pogues 0 37 of 113 32% 51 of 137 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:12
Josh Parisian 0 33 of 60 55% 49 of 79 5 of 11 45% 0 0 5:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamal Pogues 0 12 of 28 42% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Parisian 0 7 of 18 38% 13 of 25 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:54
2 Jamal Pogues 0 13 of 39 33% 17 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Josh Parisian 0 8 of 14 57% 17 of 24 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:20
3 Jamal Pogues 0 12 of 46 26% 19 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:43
Josh Parisian 0 18 of 28 64% 19 of 30 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamal Pogues 37 of 113 32% 19 of 85 14 of 23 4 of 5 35 of 110 2 of 3 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 33 of 60 55% 29 of 56 3 of 3 1 of 1 20 of 47 9 of 9 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamal Pogues 12 of 28 42% 7 of 20 3 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 7 of 18 38% 6 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Jamal Pogues 13 of 39 33% 6 of 26 5 of 10 2 of 3 12 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jamal Pogues 12 of 46 26% 6 of 39 6 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 18 of 28 64% 15 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 23 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Parisian, citing his volume striking and UFC experience. He notes Parisian set heavyweight significant strike records and has a grappling win over Alan Baudot. Angelo thinks Pogues is a decent but not powerful heavyweight who doesn't move his head. He believes Parisian's higher-level experience will be the difference, and the line movement favoring Pogues is surprising. He considers a Parisian by decision bet at plus odds.

Angelo mentions Parisian plus 3.5 at -110 and Parisian by decision at plus money as potential bets.
"I like Josh Parisian this matchup... I think parisian's gonna win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Big Brady sees a clear path for Pogues via wrestling, as Parisian has terrible takedown defense and get-up game, as shown in the Dontale Mayes fight. He notes that Pogues didn't wrestle in his last fight, which is a concern, but if he does, he should dominate. He predicts a decision win, but warns against betting the -250 line.

Pogues by decision
"Jamal poke should win this fight I mean he has a clear path to Victory with the wrestling"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Cody picks Pogues but doesn't like the -240 line for an unproven UFC debutant. He notes Pogues is young (27), has good cardio for a heavyweight, and has a wrestling advantage. However, he warns that Pogues' striking is mechanical and he's there to get countered. He also mentions Parisian's only good characteristic is being a bona fide heavyweight, and if Parisian gets top position, it's a big body to move off. He says it's a greasy heavyweight spot and he's not confident.

Cody mentions Pogues came in at 248 on Contender Series. He says he'll pick Pogues but won't lay -240.
"I don't like laying you know low level heavyweights I don't like Lane minus two four I probably won't lay minus 240 here I will be picking Pogues."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Connor picks Parisian because he is bigger and can make the fight brutal. He thinks Pogues' gas tank may not hold up against Parisian's pressure, and Parisian's toughness and aggression could wear Pogues down. Connor notes that Pogues has not faced a fighter like Parisian who will crash into him repeatedly.

"I'll take Parisian. I think that this is a fight where the fact, you know, we talked about pogues looking decent in on the Contender series... Parisian is bigger. He's just bigger."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Jacob picks Pogues but is not confident enough to bet. He thinks Pogues has a wrestling advantage and will be more active with his jab, outworking Parisian. However, he notes Pogues isn't a finisher and Parisian has a dog in him. Jacob expects a sloppy, close fight and might consider a live bet on Parisian if the fight is close in the third round.

"I'm gonna go with Jamal um just because I think he has a wrestling advantage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Pogues has a strong grappling base and good cardio, which should overwhelm Parisian, who fades in deep waters. Parisian's striking is flashy but his gas tank is poor. Pogues can take him down and grind out a decision, or even finish late.

Pogues wins by decision
"I like Pogues here... I think he wins this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Paul also picks Pogues but is hesitant. He notes Parisian's wrestling narrative is overblown, as he was taken down by Parker Porter and Dantale Maze. He says Pogues should have speed, technical striking, and cardio advantages. However, he acknowledges Parisian has a size advantage (20-25 pounds) and could use it against the cage. He says he loves betting underdogs but cannot get on board with Parisian.

Paul mentions Parisian's takedown defense is poor. He says he won't lay -240 but will pick Pogues.
"I will be picking Pogues because really outside of yeah holding him up against the cage using a little bit of size Advantage... I cannot cannot get on board playing Josh Parisian."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

The MMA Guru picks Jamal Pogues, though he wasn't impressed by his Contender Series performance. He notes Pogues has a long reach and somewhat crisp boxing, and is young enough to take his career seriously now. He criticizes Josh Parisian as a bottom-feeder heavyweight, but acknowledges Parisian is not complete garbage. He predicts a decision win in a great scrap.

"I think I'm going to take him here his boxing looked somewhat crisp and he's young and he reminds me the type of guy where if you give him the opportunity in the UFC starts really taking his career seriously"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Zane picks Pogues because he has faster, sharper hands and a good jab, and he showed the ability to increase his intensity late in fights. Parisian is a brawler who relies on toughness and chaos, but Pogues has a reach advantage and better technique. Zane notes that Parisian's only wins come when opponents fade, and Pogues has shown he can go the distance.

Pogues opened -170, now -246; Parisian opened +145, now +199. Zane says he doesn't understand the spread and thinks it should be a dead-even fight.
"I'll take pokes. He's got something resembling a prospects game. I mean, it's not good yet, but it's enough."
WIN vs Alan Baudot
TKO (punches) R2 3:04 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Parisian 0 42 of 68 61% 102 of 156 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:09
Alan Baudot 1 49 of 75 65% 56 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Parisian 0 25 of 41 60% 38 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:48
Alan Baudot 1 38 of 60 63% 45 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
2 Josh Parisian 0 17 of 27 62% 64 of 94 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:21
Alan Baudot 0 11 of 15 73% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Parisian 42 of 68 61% 27 of 53 11 of 11 4 of 4 22 of 39 2 of 4 18 of 25
Alan Baudot 49 of 75 65% 34 of 59 8 of 9 7 of 7 23 of 47 11 of 11 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Parisian 25 of 41 60% 13 of 29 8 of 8 4 of 4 17 of 32 2 of 2 6 of 7
Alan Baudot 38 of 60 63% 27 of 48 5 of 6 6 of 6 17 of 37 6 of 6 15 of 17
2 Josh Parisian 17 of 27 62% 14 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 2 12 of 18
Alan Baudot 11 of 15 73% 7 of 11 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Josh Parisian, citing his volume and forward pressure. He notes Parisian has shown takedowns in the past and could use them against Baudot, who has solid takedown defense but is at a disadvantage on the ground. He acknowledges Baudot is more dangerous but believes Parisian's output and potential wrestling will get the win.

"i like him to have the volume pressure forward and potentially work in takedowns like he did against rock martinez in that win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alan Baudot

Big Brady picks Alan Baudot to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He calls it the '1-800 gambler fight of the week' and says nobody should bet on it. He was more impressed with Baudot's performance against Parker Porter (competitive) than Parisian's poor showings (sloppy, gasses early, 42% striking defense). He expects a sloppy, greasy heavyweight decision. He admits both fighters are not great.

"i'm going to take badou just because i was more impressed with them... i think he's less worse than a parisian and i think he does get it done by a sloppy greasy sweaty heavyweight decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Baudot's lack of finishing power and Parisian's high output and durability. He thinks Parisian's pace will wear down Baudot as the fight goes on.

"give me josh parisian at that plus 100."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Paul picks the underdog Parisian, citing Baudot's lack of impressive wins and Parisian's durability and volume. He thinks Parisian can win by decision and notes Parisian by decision at +300 as a possible play.

Parisian by decision +300
"i'm gonna pick the the guy who's the underdog and as it stands right now josh parisian is the underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alan Baudot

The host picks Alan Baudot, calling Josh Parisian a 'disgraceful human' and noting Baudot is in shape and takes his career seriously. He expects Baudot to be patient on the feet, find takedowns, and pick Parisian apart for a decision win (30-27 or 29-28). He mentions Baudot trains at a good gym with Cyril Gane.

decision win prediction
"i'm going to go with adam bideaux"
LOSS vs Don'Tale Mayes
TKO (elbows) R3 3:26 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Don'Tale Mayes 0 25 of 41 60% 117 of 147 6 of 8 75% 0 0 11:32
Josh Parisian 0 10 of 16 62% 24 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Don'Tale Mayes 0 6 of 14 42% 40 of 51 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:05
Josh Parisian 0 3 of 6 50% 6 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Don'Tale Mayes 0 13 of 15 86% 31 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:27
Josh Parisian 0 2 of 2 100% 5 of 6 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Don'Tale Mayes 0 6 of 12 50% 46 of 55 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:00
Josh Parisian 0 5 of 8 62% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Don'Tale Mayes 25 of 41 60% 15 of 31 8 of 8 2 of 2 13 of 25 3 of 3 9 of 13
Josh Parisian 10 of 16 62% 7 of 11 1 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 11 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Don'Tale Mayes 6 of 14 42% 4 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 8 0 of 0 4 of 6
Josh Parisian 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Don'Tale Mayes 13 of 15 86% 7 of 9 5 of 5 1 of 1 6 of 6 3 of 3 4 of 6
Josh Parisian 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Don'Tale Mayes 6 of 12 50% 4 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Josh Parisian 5 of 8 62% 4 of 5 1 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Josh Parisian because he believes Parisian's chin will hold up against Mayes' power, and that Parisian has a slightly better gas tank and higher output. He notes that Parisian set the UFC significant strike record at heavyweight in his fight with Parker Porter, showing constant forward pressure. However, Angelo's biggest fear is a Mayes KO early, as Mayes has heavy hands. He thinks the odds are too wide in favor of Mayes and that this should be closer to a pick'em.

"I like josh to survive an early power pick up the pace and win a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Big Brady picks the underdog Josh Parisian, liking his volume and toughness despite poor striking defense. He notes Parisian's gas tank is not great but he fights through it. He expects a sloppy fight and predicts Parisian wins a volume-based decision. He admits no one can be confident in this low-level fight.

decision
"I'm actually gonna take the dog here in josh parisian to get the upset I like his volume the gas tank's not there but he's still able to fight through it and I think he's going to win a volume …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Cody slightly favors Mayes due to superior cardio and reach. He notes Mayes uses a good jab and stays on the outside, while Parisian gasses quickly. However, Cody doesn't like the -200 price and calls it a pass, suggesting live betting might be better.

"I gotta go with maze superior cardio cardio wins fights"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Daniel Levi picks Don'Tale Mayes to win, though he is not sure how. He acknowledges Mayes's physical gifts (6'6", 81-inch reach) and decent striking, but notes he underperforms and slows down. Levi is unimpressed with Josh Parisian, who absorbs too many strikes and has poor defense. He believes Mayes's youth and athleticism should prevail, and expects Mayes to land the harder shots and possibly get a finish. Levi warns that Parisian could win a decision if Mayes fades, but still picks Mayes.

Mayes by KO/TKO; fight doesn't go to decision
"Give me Don'Tale Mayes to come out here and win I'm not sure how but just give me Don'Tale as my pick."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Jacob picks Josh Parisian but calls it a coin flip, expecting a sloppy fight. He notes that both fighters like to throw spinning attacks and that Parisian is slightly less sloppy with his hands higher. Jacob mentions that Mayes' hands are often low and he does wild spinning stuff. He doesn't feel great about the pick but leans Parisian.

"if i have to pick in this fight i'm gonna pick josh parisian i agree that the odds should be a pick em"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

The host leans towards Mayes by decision, noting that Mayes is more mobile and can stick and move, while Parisian is slow and plods forward. He thinks the fight goes to decision and likes the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +105. He is not confident enough to lay -200 on Mayes moneyline.

fight goes to decision (+105)
"I like the fight goes to decision here plus 105. and in terms of picking aside man i think maze is the side here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Paul leans Parisian as a dog, citing his higher volume and pressure. He notes that both fighters gas, but Parisian throws more. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and would take the plus money if forced to bet.

"Plus 170 on josh briesen is it pretty no it's pretty ugly but uh that's that's the side that would take my money if I had to bet it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes over Josh Parisian, though he admits both fighters are not very good. He cites Mayes' youth, power, reach advantage, and better athleticism. He notes Parisian has been disappointing recently and lost to Rook Martinez (though he got the win). He thinks Mayes is more technical and powerful on the feet.

"i'm gonna go with dontel mays here over josh parisian"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Parisian 0 79 of 160 49% 100 of 186 1 of 7 14% 0 0 4:23
Roque Martinez 0 64 of 114 56% 245 of 309 0 of 0 --- 1 0 4:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Parisian 0 29 of 59 49% 35 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Roque Martinez 0 26 of 46 56% 84 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:40
2 Josh Parisian 0 28 of 44 63% 37 of 54 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:22
Roque Martinez 0 9 of 18 50% 82 of 99 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:08
3 Josh Parisian 0 22 of 57 38% 28 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:53
Roque Martinez 0 29 of 50 58% 79 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Parisian 79 of 160 49% 43 of 118 29 of 34 7 of 8 49 of 120 30 of 40 0 of 0
Roque Martinez 64 of 114 56% 48 of 98 15 of 15 1 of 1 39 of 84 25 of 30 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Parisian 29 of 59 49% 12 of 42 13 of 13 4 of 4 20 of 49 9 of 10 0 of 0
Roque Martinez 26 of 46 56% 21 of 41 5 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 30 13 of 16 0 of 0
2 Josh Parisian 28 of 44 63% 17 of 29 9 of 12 2 of 3 10 of 18 18 of 26 0 of 0
Roque Martinez 9 of 18 50% 5 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 13 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Josh Parisian 22 of 57 38% 14 of 47 7 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 53 3 of 4 0 of 0
Roque Martinez 29 of 50 58% 22 of 43 6 of 6 1 of 1 21 of 41 8 of 9 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Josh Parisian, citing his height and reach advantage, high volume, and improved conditioning. He thinks Parisian will pick Martinez apart at range and that Martinez's durability will prevent a finish, leading to a decision. He bet on the fight going to a decision at +145 and likes the over on strikes for both.

goes to a decision (+145, 1 unit); monkey knife fight: more more
"i have josh parisian as my pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Big Brady likes Parisian's volume and significant reach/height advantages, but is concerned about his cardio after gassing against Parker Porter. He thinks Parisian will land more shots and win a decision because Martinez is very durable and hard to finish.

win by decision
"I'll take josh parisian to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Cody picks Parisian by decision, noting Parisian's reach and volume advantage. He believes Martinez is durable but will be outpointed. Cody suggests the over 2.5 rounds or fight goes the distance as better plays, as both fighters lack finishing ability.

Parisian by decision +333; over 2.5 rounds +100; fight goes the distance +130
"i take prison by decision i really don't think he's putting away rogue martinez"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Josh Parisian

Daniel Levi picks Josh Parisian, noting that he is the bigger, more physical fighter with more skills. He thinks Parisian will take Martinez down and work on top. He acknowledges that Parisian lost to Parker Porter, but considers Porter a tough opponent. He believes Martinez is tough but lacks the skills to win at this level, and that Parisian will get his first UFC win.

"i'm gonna go parisian and get this one done my man"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Jacob also picks Josh Parisian, comparing his wild kicking style to a karate kid. He acknowledges the height advantage and thinks Parisian's volume will win the fight. He is slightly worried about Martinez's grappling but overall expects a sloppy fight that Parisian wins.

"i think josh wins the fight i think this is a sloppy mess of a fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Roque Martinez

The host picks Roque Martinez as an underdog, believing his durability, cardio, and pressure will overcome Josh Parisian, who tends to gas. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and boxing, and expects Parisian to fade after the first round. He predicts Martinez by decision, similar to the Parker Porter fight, and likes the over 1.5 rounds due to both fighters' durability. He is not putting hard-earned money on Martinez but sees value in the decision prop.

Martinez by decision at +350ish range; over 1.5 rounds at -185 (chalky but liked)
"i'm going rookie martinez by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Roque Martinez

Paul leans toward Martinez, citing his durability and toughness. He expects a sloppy heavyweight fight and is not confident. Paul bets over 1.5 rounds at -155, expecting the fight to last.

over 1.5 rounds -155
"give me rocky i guess if he had to put a gun to my head just i think you know i'll lean on durability toughness"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Josh Parisian

The MMA Guru picks Josh Parisian to win by first-round TKO via spinning back fist and ground and pound. He believes Parisian will soften up Martinez's body with spinning back kicks, then land a spinning back fist to knock him down and finish with ground and pound against the cage. He expresses high confidence that Parisian will go for the spinning back fist.

spinning back fist KO, first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with josh parisian spinning back fist ko... first round tko for josh perisium"
LOSS vs Parker Porter
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Smith vs. Clark · Nov 28, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Parker Porter 0 114 of 226 50% 123 of 237 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Josh Parisian 0 126 of 228 55% 164 of 275 2 of 4 50% 1 0 4:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Parker Porter 0 56 of 115 48% 61 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Josh Parisian 0 46 of 92 50% 57 of 104 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:10
2 Parker Porter 0 24 of 43 55% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Parisian 0 30 of 46 65% 54 of 78 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:12
3 Parker Porter 0 34 of 68 50% 35 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Josh Parisian 0 50 of 90 55% 53 of 93 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Parker Porter 114 of 226 50% 71 of 173 35 of 44 8 of 9 89 of 190 25 of 36 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 126 of 228 55% 90 of 190 16 of 18 20 of 20 105 of 198 20 of 27 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Parker Porter 56 of 115 48% 38 of 92 18 of 22 0 of 1 38 of 89 18 of 26 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 46 of 92 50% 33 of 77 10 of 12 3 of 3 33 of 77 13 of 15 0 of 0
2 Parker Porter 24 of 43 55% 11 of 30 9 of 9 4 of 4 19 of 37 5 of 6 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 30 of 46 65% 18 of 34 4 of 4 8 of 8 25 of 35 4 of 8 1 of 3
3 Parker Porter 34 of 68 50% 22 of 51 8 of 13 4 of 4 32 of 64 2 of 4 0 of 0
Josh Parisian 50 of 90 55% 39 of 79 2 of 2 9 of 9 47 of 86 3 of 4 0 of 0
Alan Baudot - Fight History
LOSS vs Josh Parisian
TKO (punches) R2 3:04 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Parisian 0 42 of 68 61% 102 of 156 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:09
Alan Baudot 1 49 of 75 65% 56 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Parisian 0 25 of 41 60% 38 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:48
Alan Baudot 1 38 of 60 63% 45 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
2 Josh Parisian 0 17 of 27 62% 64 of 94 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:21
Alan Baudot 0 11 of 15 73% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Parisian 42 of 68 61% 27 of 53 11 of 11 4 of 4 22 of 39 2 of 4 18 of 25
Alan Baudot 49 of 75 65% 34 of 59 8 of 9 7 of 7 23 of 47 11 of 11 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Parisian 25 of 41 60% 13 of 29 8 of 8 4 of 4 17 of 32 2 of 2 6 of 7
Alan Baudot 38 of 60 63% 27 of 48 5 of 6 6 of 6 17 of 37 6 of 6 15 of 17
2 Josh Parisian 17 of 27 62% 14 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 2 12 of 18
Alan Baudot 11 of 15 73% 7 of 11 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Josh Parisian, citing his volume and forward pressure. He notes Parisian has shown takedowns in the past and could use them against Baudot, who has solid takedown defense but is at a disadvantage on the ground. He acknowledges Baudot is more dangerous but believes Parisian's output and potential wrestling will get the win.

"i like him to have the volume pressure forward and potentially work in takedowns like he did against rock martinez in that win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alan Baudot

Big Brady picks Alan Baudot to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He calls it the '1-800 gambler fight of the week' and says nobody should bet on it. He was more impressed with Baudot's performance against Parker Porter (competitive) than Parisian's poor showings (sloppy, gasses early, 42% striking defense). He expects a sloppy, greasy heavyweight decision. He admits both fighters are not great.

"i'm going to take badou just because i was more impressed with them... i think he's less worse than a parisian and i think he does get it done by a sloppy greasy sweaty heavyweight decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Baudot's lack of finishing power and Parisian's high output and durability. He thinks Parisian's pace will wear down Baudot as the fight goes on.

"give me josh parisian at that plus 100."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Paul picks the underdog Parisian, citing Baudot's lack of impressive wins and Parisian's durability and volume. He thinks Parisian can win by decision and notes Parisian by decision at +300 as a possible play.

Parisian by decision +300
"i'm gonna pick the the guy who's the underdog and as it stands right now josh parisian is the underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alan Baudot

The host picks Alan Baudot, calling Josh Parisian a 'disgraceful human' and noting Baudot is in shape and takes his career seriously. He expects Baudot to be patient on the feet, find takedowns, and pick Parisian apart for a decision win (30-27 or 29-28). He mentions Baudot trains at a good gym with Cyril Gane.

decision win prediction
"i'm going to go with adam bideaux"
LOSS vs Parker Porter
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Feb 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Parker Porter 0 43 of 106 40% 82 of 150 2 of 8 25% 0 0 6:34
Alan Baudot 0 55 of 107 51% 61 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Parker Porter 0 12 of 39 30% 29 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:52
Alan Baudot 0 17 of 32 53% 18 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Parker Porter 0 19 of 39 48% 25 of 45 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:23
Alan Baudot 0 14 of 32 43% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Parker Porter 0 12 of 28 42% 28 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:19
Alan Baudot 0 24 of 43 55% 28 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Parker Porter 43 of 106 40% 20 of 80 4 of 4 19 of 22 34 of 94 6 of 7 3 of 5
Alan Baudot 55 of 107 51% 43 of 94 11 of 11 1 of 2 50 of 101 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Parker Porter 12 of 39 30% 8 of 35 1 of 1 3 of 3 8 of 34 4 of 5 0 of 0
Alan Baudot 17 of 32 53% 13 of 27 4 of 4 0 of 1 14 of 28 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Parker Porter 19 of 39 48% 5 of 24 3 of 3 11 of 12 16 of 36 2 of 2 1 of 1
Alan Baudot 14 of 32 43% 12 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Parker Porter 12 of 28 42% 7 of 21 0 of 0 5 of 7 10 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 4
Alan Baudot 24 of 43 55% 18 of 37 5 of 5 1 of 1 23 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Angelo picks Parker Porter confidently, though admits bias as a friend. He highlights Porter's footwork, power, underrated wrestling, and ridiculous volume. He notes Baudot is a competent striker with power but has poor ground game and has never seen a decision. Angelo expects Porter to dominate with wrestling and volume.

"i think parker porter wins this fight he is absolutely my pick he's the better fighter everywhere"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Big Brady picks Parker Porter, calling Baudot one of the worst heavyweights. He notes Porter has better cardio and ground game, while Baudot has been finished in all losses and tends to quit. He predicts Porter wins by second or third round knockout.

win by second or third round knockout
"it's gonna be parker porter to win give me park reporter to win by second or third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Cody is very confident in Porter, calling him a potential best pick of the week. He highlights Porter's excellent cardio, high volume striking (149 significant strikes in his last fight), and takedown ability. Cody notes that Baudot has no redeeming qualities: poor grappling, no power, and a weak chin. He believes Porter can win wherever the fight goes, either by out-striking or taking Baudot down and smashing him.

"i think he's likely your best pick of the week draftking sportsbook went from minus 255 to plus 250. so"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Levi picks Porter, noting that Baudot has a history of quitting (took a knee against Nascimento) and that Porter has heart and toughness. He expects Porter to survive an early storm and take over after the first round. Levi has faded Baudot in both his UFC fights and believes Porter's veteran experience and durability will be key.

first five minutes will be a sweat, after that Porter should take over
"give me parker porter but um first five minutes will be a sweat after that porter should take over"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Porter has a clear path to victory: weather Baudot's early storm, then take him down and submit him. Baudot has terrible grappling and gasses in the second round. Porter's submission game is underrated, and Baudot has been submitted by lower-level grapplers. Porter by submission at +700 is the best prop on the card. The fight doesn't go to decision at -200 is also a strong play.

Porter by submission (+700), fight doesn't go to decision (-200), Baudot round 1 (+650)
"park reporter via submission is currently setting up plus 650 plus 700 on a couple spots that's where my degenerate money is going for this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Paul picks Porter, expressing surprise that the line is only -250 given Baudot's poor performances. He notes that Baudot has been dominated in his UFC fights and lacks power or grappling. Paul thinks Porter's cardio and pace will be too much for Baudot, and that Porter should win comfortably.

"i just don't really see i don't see very much power in his hands he's obviously a horrendous grappler like there's really not too many redeeming qualities for alan beaudo"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

The MMA Guru picks Parker Porter to win by 29-28 decision. He trusts Porter's experience and veteran tricks, noting he has good grappling awareness and toughness. He thinks Alan Baudot may have early success but Porter will wear him down in the later rounds. He also mentions that Baudot won his UFC entry by DQ and has been KO'd before.

decision 29-28
"i'm going with parker porter over alan bedo ... i think the first two rounds are going to be controlled no the first round will be good for for badou the second two rounds porter will start creeping on him …"
No Contest (overturned) R2 1:29 · UFC on ESPN: Makhachev vs. Moises · Jul 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 60 of 91 65% 73 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Alan Baudot 0 49 of 83 59% 51 of 85 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 50 of 66 75% 63 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Alan Baudot 0 18 of 31 58% 19 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:36
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alan Baudot 0 31 of 52 59% 32 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodrigo Nascimento 60 of 91 65% 45 of 73 10 of 13 5 of 5 36 of 64 19 of 20 5 of 7
Alan Baudot 49 of 83 59% 41 of 75 6 of 6 2 of 2 45 of 75 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 50 of 66 75% 40 of 56 6 of 6 4 of 4 26 of 39 19 of 20 5 of 7
Alan Baudot 18 of 31 58% 13 of 26 3 of 3 2 of 2 16 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 10 of 25 40% 5 of 17 4 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alan Baudot 31 of 52 59% 28 of 49 3 of 3 0 of 0 29 of 47 2 of 5 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Cody is confident in Rodrigo Nascimento, but he prefers the submission prop. He believes Nascimento's BJJ will be too much for Alan Baudot, who has shown poor takedown defense and grappling. He expects Nascimento to take Baudot down and submit him, likely in the first round. He is looking for plus money on the submission prop.

Nascimento by sub (looking for plus money)
"I think the play here if any is not cemento by sub what about you."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Paul is confident in Rodrigo Nascimento, calling Alan Baudot one of the worst heavyweights in UFC history. He notes Baudot's poor grappling and questionable chin, and expects Nascimento to take him down and submit him. He thinks Nascimento is a safer play than other heavy favorites on the card.

"Nasty men should buzz saw right through him as far as the three to one favorites on this card like he's heavyweight he just got knocked in 45 seconds but he feels a lot safer than some of the other …"
LOSS vs Tom Aspinall
TKO (elbows and punches) R1 1:35 · UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Oct 11, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tom Aspinall 0 16 of 25 64% 17 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Alan Baudot 0 3 of 12 25% 5 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tom Aspinall 0 16 of 25 64% 17 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Alan Baudot 0 3 of 12 25% 5 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tom Aspinall 16 of 25 64% 15 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 10 0 of 0 12 of 15
Alan Baudot 3 of 12 25% 1 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tom Aspinall 16 of 25 64% 15 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 10 0 of 0 12 of 15
Alan Baudot 3 of 12 25% 1 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Big Brady picks Aspinall confidently, noting his 100% finish rate and that Baudot is moving up a weight class and is much smaller. He expects a first round knockout, but mentions a submission is possible if Aspinall uses a wrestling-heavy game plan. He notes Aspinall is a BJJ black belt.

Aspinall by first round knockout; submission at +925
"aspinall should roll here and i'm going to say he gets a first round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Daniel is very confident that Tom Aspinall will win easily. He praises Aspinall's youth, black belt in jiu-jitsu, and training with Tyson Fury. He dismisses Alan Baudot as coming from a suspect regional scene (TKO) and notes that Baudot lost his last fight (though overturned) and was knocked out by a fighter Aspinall already beat. Daniel predicts a first-round knockout.

Daniel predicts a first-round knockout. He also mentions that Baudot is a short-notice replacement and shouldn't be in the UFC.
"I think saturday night in yas island abu dhabi at fight island tom aspinall is going to knock alan bedeaux out in the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Aspinall's grappling is far superior; Baudot has shown poor takedown defense and submission vulnerability. Aspinall will take the fight to the ground quickly and secure a first-round submission. Baudot has a puncher's chance on the feet but Aspinall will avoid that.

under 1.5 rounds at -160; Aspinall inside distance at -240
"i do think we see tom aspinall go out there and get a submission in the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

The Guru picks Aspinall, highlighting his boxing background and experience. He analyzes Baudot's record, noting he struggled against better competition and was choked out by Todd Stout (later overturned). He believes if Baudot tries to stand and strike with Aspinall, he will get knocked out stiff in the first round.

first round finish
"you're going to stand there and play the fainty touch touch striking match with tom aspinall in the first round you're gonna get ko'd stiff i'll go with tom aspinall with a first round finish"
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Angelo picks Josh Parisian, citing his volume and forward pressure. He notes Parisian has shown takedowns in the past and could use them against Baudot, who has solid takedown defense but is at a disadvantage on the ground. He acknowledges Baudot is more dangerous but believes Parisian's output and potential wrestling will get the win.

"i like him to have the volume pressure forward and potentially work in takedowns like he did against rock martinez in that win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alan Baudot

Big Brady picks Alan Baudot to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He calls it the '1-800 gambler fight of the week' and says nobody should bet on it. He was more impressed with Baudot's performance against Parker Porter (competitive) than Parisian's poor showings (sloppy, gasses early, 42% striking defense). He expects a sloppy, greasy heavyweight decision. He admits both fighters are not great.

"i'm going to take badou just because i was more impressed with them... i think he's less worse than a parisian and i think he does get it done by a sloppy greasy sweaty heavyweight decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Baudot's lack of finishing power and Parisian's high output and durability. He thinks Parisian's pace will wear down Baudot as the fight goes on.

"give me josh parisian at that plus 100."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Josh Parisian

Paul picks the underdog Parisian, citing Baudot's lack of impressive wins and Parisian's durability and volume. He thinks Parisian can win by decision and notes Parisian by decision at +300 as a possible play.

Parisian by decision +300
"i'm gonna pick the the guy who's the underdog and as it stands right now josh parisian is the underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alan Baudot

The host picks Alan Baudot, calling Josh Parisian a 'disgraceful human' and noting Baudot is in shape and takes his career seriously. He expects Baudot to be patient on the feet, find takedowns, and pick Parisian apart for a decision win (30-27 or 29-28). He mentions Baudot trains at a good gym with Cyril Gane.

decision win prediction
"i'm going to go with adam bideaux"