vs
+135 -135
UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Next Fight
Age 35
Height 6' 4"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 31
Height 6' 0"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Carlos Ulberg
6.54 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
4.04 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
0.55 TD Avg
60.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Tafon Nchukwi
5.57 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
4.11 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.76 TD Avg
57.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Carlos Ulberg
Moneyline
DraftKings +135
KO/TKO
DraftKings +240
Submission
BetRivers +1800
Decision
FanDuel +390
Tafon Nchukwi
Moneyline
BetMGM -135
KO/TKO
BetWay +210
Submission
FanDuel +1800
Decision
BetRivers +350
Carlos Ulberg - Fight History
KO R1 3:45 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 0 14 of 20 70% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 1 27 of 42 64% 27 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 14 of 20 70% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 1 27 of 42 64% 27 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 14 of 20 70% 6 of 11 1 of 1 7 of 8 14 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 27 of 42 64% 21 of 35 1 of 2 5 of 5 16 of 30 0 of 0 11 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 14 of 20 70% 6 of 11 1 of 1 7 of 8 14 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 27 of 42 64% 21 of 35 1 of 2 5 of 5 16 of 30 0 of 0 11 of 12
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo picks Jiří Procházka, believing he will close the distance and make the fight ugly. He acknowledges Carlos Ulberg's technical striking and range management but doubts his power to knock out Procházka, citing Ulberg's KO victims as low-level. He thinks Procházka wins if he gets in the pocket and notes the odds are interesting.

"Jiří Procházka's going to be the pick. Minus 135, these odds are very, very interesting here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Big Brady expects Procházka to be patient in the first round, then turn up the pressure in the second and third rounds, breaking Ulberg similar to how Kennedy Nzechukwu broke him. He notes Procházka's durability and power, but acknowledges his poor striking defense and the risk of being knocked out. He predicts a second-round knockout for Procházka.

second round knockout
"I'm taking Jiří Procházka. He could get knocked out here, Jiří. I always talk about the striking defense... give me Jiří Procházka to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Cody leans towards Ulberg's technical striking and believes he can intercept Procházka early. He thinks Ulberg's tight style and jab will exploit Procházka's openings, but acknowledges it's a close fight.

"I think I'm edging to more towards Alberg... I just feel like Carlos Berg maybe intercepts him or within the first three rounds and puts him away."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka despite some concerns about his recent tendency to overthink and hesitate early in fights. He notes that Procházka has a clear striking plan and is a devastating finisher, while Ulberg's style relies on speed and clean single shots but lacks maintenance work and pressure. Connor believes Ulberg hasn't proven he can handle this level of pressure and that Procházka will eventually force exchanges and land fight-ending blows. He acknowledges Ulberg's speed and power but thinks Procházka's durability and finishing ability will prevail.

Odds comment: Procházka opened +145, dropped to -120, currently -110; Ulberg opened -170, jumped to +105, currently -110. Connor thinks Procházka should be a favorite.
"I got to pick Prashazka here. But, you know, it's a great test for Olberg..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel Vreeland picks Carlos Ulberg because he believes Ulberg's precision striking and counter-fighting style will exploit Jiri's reckless aggression. He notes that Ulberg's jab and calf kicks can keep Jiri at range, and that Jiri's unorthodox style leaves openings for Ulberg's left hook. He also mentions that Ulberg has paid his dues and is ready for the title.

"I like Ulberg here. I think Ulberg's basics are significantly better than Jiri's, but I'm not sure about his cardio. So I think it'll balance out a little bit, but I like Ulberg to walk out of there with a …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel is torn on this fight, acknowledging both fighters have strong cases. He notes that both scenarios start with Ulberg lighting up Procházka, but he ultimately picks the underdog Ulberg to win by knockout, citing his left hook and calf kicks.

"I'm going to pick the underdog Carlos Goldberg to come out here, chop down the calf of the beloved Yuri Prohaska, and eventually find a home for that left hook, get a knockout, and take that belt home to New …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The host leans towards Procházka because of his proven toughness, durability, and kill-or-be-killed style, especially in a five-round fight. He notes Ulberg is the more technical striker, but Procházka's heart and ability to turn up the pressure when losing are major factors. He believes Ulberg may not have the same dog in him and could be overwhelmed by Procházka's relentless pressure.

Thinks fight likely ends inside the distance but odds are unplayable.
"I lean heavily towards Jairzinho here because I don't know if Overeem's got that dog in him, and that's often the difference in big, high-profile title fights such as this."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)

James is unsure who will win the fight, leaning towards Jiří Procházka after the line moved, but he doesn't commit to a winner. Instead, he focuses on prop bets, covering both fighters in different rounds.

Carlos Ulberg win in round 1 (+700), round 2 (+900); Jiří Procházka win in round 3 (+1000), round 4 (+1300), round 5 (+1600)
"I was leaning Albazi earlier in the week, he was plus 120. Now at minus 110, I'm leaning Jiří. So that just tells me that I don't know and James, you should probably stay away unless you want to get …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

James picks Carlos Ulberg as a slight underdog, reasoning that Ulberg will have his chance to win early and that Procházka has to survive the early storm. He acknowledges Procházka's advantages in experience and cardio but leans Ulberg because of the underdog value and early finishing potential.

Fight to end inside the distance; prop bets on Ulberg by KO in rounds 1-2 and Procházka by KO in rounds 3-5
"I'm going to go with Carlos Allberg. And there's a few reasons. The first reason is because he's an underdog, right? So I feel like this close this fight is close to 50/50, but Carlos is the underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Procházka's pressure and cardio are key in a five-round fight. He can absorb early shots and break opponents in later rounds. Ulberg is a good technical striker but may fade under Procházka's relentless pressure. Procházka's chin has held up against top competition, and Ulberg is not the same level of knockout threat as Pereira. Expect Procházka to finish in rounds 3 or 4.

Procházka wins in rounds 3 or 4
"I think Prohaska gets the finish in rounds three or round four."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Paul believes Procházka's chaotic style and cardio will allow him to survive early and finish late. He notes Procházka has never gone to decision in the UFC and expects a finish, possibly in later rounds.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to go with Yuri and say that Yuri survives early and probably gets a finish late."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka over Carlos Ulberg, despite initially favoring Ulberg. He believes Procházka has improved his striking defense and head movement, and that Ulberg may break if the fight gets scrappy. He notes Procházka's baby is due the day after, and envisions a storybook win. He predicts Procházka will take over from the second half of round two onwards and win by TKO or decision.

"I'm going to go with Jiří Procházka, man."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Zane picks Procházka but expresses less faith than Connor, noting that Ulberg's style could flummox Procházka if he is too committed to his own approach. He points out that Procházka looked bad for two rounds against Khalil Rountree before turning it on, and that Ulberg's speed and clean punching could hurt Procházka. However, Zane believes Procházka will eventually go for it and that his finishing ability is the difference. He also notes that light heavyweight is a division where anyone can get knocked out, but Procházka's track record of finishes gives him the edge.

Odds comment: Procházka opened +145, dropped to -120, currently -110; Ulberg opened -170, jumped to +105, currently -110.
"I don't have as much faith in the area as I as I once did. I think there's a possibility that Olberg is so committed to his style that Yuri may be a little flummoxed."
KO R1 4:27 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Ulberg 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dominick Reyes 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Ulberg 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dominick Reyes 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Ulberg 11 of 17 64% 6 of 9 2 of 3 3 of 5 9 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dominick Reyes 5 of 11 45% 0 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 5 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Ulberg 11 of 17 64% 6 of 9 2 of 3 3 of 5 9 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dominick Reyes 5 of 11 45% 0 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 5 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg over Dominick Reyes, citing Ulberg's superior technical striking and takedown defense. He notes that Reyes does not use his reach well and may get clipped if he charges forward. He expects a decision win for Ulberg, possibly boring, but believes Ulberg is the clear pick. He mentions the line moved from minus 160 to minus 260.

Expects decision; no finish.
"I'm going to pick Carlos Uber here. I think this is mostly a striking matchup and Carlos is the better striker. While Dominic Reyes has the torso of a giraffe, the reality is he doesn't use his reach very well. …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by fourth-round knockout. He praises Ulberg's improvements and power, and questions whether Reyes's chin has truly recovered. He believes Ulberg will land a big shot over 25 minutes or win a volume-based decision as the hometown fighter.

fourth round knockout
"I'm going to go Bberg here. Here, I'm going to goberg by fourth round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody believes the line is too wide at Ulberg -260 and sees value on Reyes as a dog. He argues Reyes is just as good a striker, has five-round experience, and may have a wrestling advantage to stuff takedowns. He notes Ulberg's recent fights against older, slower opponents were competitive, and Reyes could drag him into deep waters.

"I just feel like the value here is clearly on Dominic Rays that should be able to keep this these striking exchanges close has a little more experience, has been five rounds before and then might have low key better …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Connor also picks Ulberg, but with more hesitation. He acknowledges that Reyes could pressure effectively like he did against Jon Jones, but doubts Reyes's technical improvements. Connor notes that Reyes's wins are against questionable opposition and that his footwork and combination punching remain flawed. He thinks Ulberg's speed and willingness to make Reyes work could cause Reyes to second-guess himself, especially given Ulberg's imposing physique.

"I think I have to pick Olberg just because I don't think Reyes is going to close him down that easily."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

James confidently picks Carlos Ulberg, believing he is the superior striker with better fight IQ and faints. He dismisses Reyes' recent wins as deceiving, noting opponents ran into his punches. He predicts Ulberg will catch Reyes with a clean shot and knock him out, exposing Reyes' chin.

by KO
"I'm predicting Carlosberg in this one. I think he's the better striker."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

James picks Carlos Ulberg confidently, citing his superior striking technique, feint game, and durability. He notes that Ulberg is the more well-schooled kickboxer with better footwork and shot selection, and that Reyes' recent wins came against opponents who rushed in recklessly, which Ulberg won't do. He also mentions Reyes' past chin issues and believes Ulberg can hurt him to the body or head. He predicts a knockout, though a decision is also possible.

knockout
"I'm calling Carlos Orberg here. I'm calling Carlos Orberg pretty confidently here. ... I'm going to say knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The host acknowledges Reyes has athleticism and power to change the fight, but believes Ulberg's technical advantages will cause Reyes to walk onto a counter and get knocked out. He notes it will be closer than the odds indicate but expects Ulberg to earn his ninth straight victory and potentially a title shot.

closer fight than odds indicate
"Reyes obviously has the athleticism and power to change the tide of any fight, but I believe it's going to be the technical advantages of Alberg that causes Reyes to walk onto a counter and eventually get knocked out. This …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The Guru picks Carlos Ulberg to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Ulberg's back-foot striking and counter-punching will frustrate Reyes, who struggles when forced to lead. He notes Reyes' tendency to leave himself open when moving forward and cites Ulberg's performance against Jan Błachowicz as superior to Reyes'. He expects Reyes to get desperate and get caught.

third round TKO
"I think Carlos Allberg has got this one in the bag."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Zane picks Ulberg, expecting him to use his jab-centric, technical out-fighting to keep Reyes at range and avoid pressure. He notes that Ulberg is fast and will likely circle away, making it hard for Reyes to cut off the cage. Zane worries that Reyes's confidence may not hold if he can't close the distance, and he sees Ulberg's speed and low kicks as key factors. He also mentions that the big cage in Perth favors Ulberg's movement.

"I think I'm gonna pick Olberg just because I don't think Reyes is going to close him down that easily."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 59 of 131 45% 59 of 131 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 0 75 of 157 47% 75 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 18 of 31 58% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 0 15 of 32 46% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 16 of 33 48% 16 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 0 29 of 60 48% 29 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Jan Błachowicz 0 25 of 67 37% 25 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 0 31 of 65 47% 31 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 59 of 131 45% 17 of 67 10 of 26 32 of 38 59 of 131 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 75 of 157 47% 19 of 87 6 of 15 50 of 55 74 of 156 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 18 of 31 58% 3 of 11 1 of 4 14 of 16 18 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 15 of 32 46% 2 of 16 1 of 4 12 of 12 15 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 16 of 33 48% 6 of 16 2 of 8 8 of 9 16 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 29 of 60 48% 6 of 30 3 of 7 20 of 23 28 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jan Błachowicz 25 of 67 37% 8 of 40 7 of 14 10 of 13 25 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 31 of 65 47% 11 of 41 2 of 4 18 of 20 31 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg, citing Jan Błachowicz's age (42) and lack of recent wins over light heavyweights. He notes that Jan's wins are mostly over middleweights and his last win was due to a freak injury. He acknowledges Ulberg didn't look great in his last fight but believes he will be too fast and too young. He mentions a text argument with Jacob about this fight.

"ulberg is going to be the pick and I am pretty confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Brady thinks Blachowicz is old (42), coming off injuries and layoff, and likely not the same fighter. He predicts Ulberg wins by decision. However, he notes the line is silly and if Blachowicz looks healthy without knee sleeves, he might take a small bet on him.

Ulberg by decision
"give me olberg orberg by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Connor picks Jan, sticking with the old man despite the risks. He argues Jan has been an unsolvable puzzle for most light heavyweights due to his compact defense, counter-punching, and leg kicks. He hasn't seen Jan decline yet and believes his experience and durability will carry him, though he admits the layoff and age are concerns.

Jan opened at -113, currently +244; Ulberg opened at -100, currently -275. Connor notes the odds and seems to find value in Jan as an underdog.
"I'll keep one for the old man and i'll go with below which here ... I haven't seen him be shot yet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The host leans with Ulberg's striking advantage, noting Błachowicz is coming back from injury, a long layoff, and is 42 years old. He expects Ulberg to shut down takedowns, touch him up on the feet, and win on the scorecards.

"I have to lean with the striking advantage of Bberg. Not to mention Blhovic coming back from an injury, long layoff and being 42 now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The Guru confidently picks Jan Błachowicz, despite his age and surgeries, because he believes Błachowicz is a much better striker than Ulberg's previous opponents. He notes that Ulberg struggled against OSP and Devin Clark, while Błachowicz has beaten top competition. He expects Błachowicz to out-strike Ulberg, especially in a three-round fight at sea level, and sees value in Błachowicz as a nearly 3-to-1 underdog.

underdog value (nearly 3-to-1)
"I'm going to go yanovich getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Zane picks Ulberg, citing Jan's age (42), long layoff, and shoulder injury as major concerns. He believes Ulberg's speed, jab, and improving striking can overwhelm Jan, especially in a three-round fight. However, he acknowledges Jan's durability, leg kicks, and counter-punching make him dangerous, and Ulberg's inconsistency could cost him.

Jan opened at -113, currently +244; Ulberg opened at -100, currently -275. Zane notes the line movement reflects trepidation about Jan.
"I gotta stick with my kind which is uh ... Tall and possibly handsome young men ... Carlos is better than that."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Nov 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Ulberg 0 96 of 183 52% 96 of 183 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Volkan Oezdemir 0 98 of 204 48% 98 of 204 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Ulberg 0 29 of 51 56% 29 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Volkan Oezdemir 0 24 of 60 40% 24 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Ulberg 0 28 of 59 47% 28 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Volkan Oezdemir 0 29 of 60 48% 29 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carlos Ulberg 0 39 of 73 53% 39 of 73 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Volkan Oezdemir 0 45 of 84 53% 45 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Ulberg 96 of 183 52% 51 of 131 17 of 24 28 of 28 95 of 182 1 of 1 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 98 of 204 48% 81 of 182 9 of 13 8 of 9 98 of 204 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Ulberg 29 of 51 56% 12 of 30 8 of 12 9 of 9 28 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 24 of 60 40% 18 of 51 3 of 5 3 of 4 24 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Ulberg 28 of 59 47% 11 of 40 4 of 6 13 of 13 28 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 29 of 60 48% 23 of 53 2 of 3 4 of 4 29 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carlos Ulberg 39 of 73 53% 28 of 61 5 of 6 6 of 6 39 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 45 of 84 53% 40 of 78 4 of 5 1 of 1 45 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo initially was very confident in Ulberg but became more hesitant after reviewing Oezdemir's resume and chin. He still picks Ulberg as the much better striker but acknowledges Oezdemir's takedown threat and experience. He notes Oezdemir hasn't been knocked out since 2020.

"I am still going to pick ulberg here I'm going to stick with my gut but the confidence took a little bit of a hit"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by decision. He believes Ulberg is the better striker with more volume and power, and Oezdemir is unlikely to wrestle. Brady notes Oezdemir has looked like he's losing a step, citing the Paul Craig fight where he seemed slow. He expects Ulberg to outwork Oezdemir over 15 minutes in a competitive but clear decision.

"I like orberg to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by decision just doing more across 15 minutes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Cody picks Ulberg, citing his speed, power, and improved cardio and grappling. He notes that Oezdemir is a first-round knockout threat but fades in later rounds and has been taken down. Ulberg's diverse skill set and ability to mix takedowns give him multiple paths to victory. He expects Ulberg to win by decision or late knockout.

"I got alberg alberg a i Sav by decision I kind of think he could knock him out so I don't really like that I'll probably just play the money line"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Connor also picks Ulberg, but notes that Oezdemir could win if he pressures and lands big combinations. He compares Ulberg to Charbel Magomedov, saying he is fast but vulnerable when pressured. Connor expects a sticky split decision where Ulberg jabs from range and Oezdemir has moments of success, but Ulberg's speed and reach should edge it.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'll take Olberg as well, but it could easily be a sticky split decision where Olberg is getting backed up and touching Oezdemir up with jabs."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel Vreeland is confident Carlos Ulberg will win, citing his superior athleticism, speed, and slick striking. He praises Ulberg's left hook and step-back counter. He views Volkan Oezdemir as a solid but limited gatekeeper who is too meat-and-potatoes for the new breed. Vreeland predicts a left hook knockout by Ulberg.

by KO (left hook)
"I think it's gonna be a left hook Knockout by Carlos olberg over Vulcan usir"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)

James does not give a clear pick for this fight, citing inside information from Ulberg's camp that he keeps private. He notes the odds seem based on recency bias and that Ulberg is stepping up in competition. He suggests the line may be off but does not reveal his lean.

"I'm not going to go into the stylist Stylistics of this matchup right now on this video"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Paul agrees, highlighting Ulberg's speed and technical striking advantage. He thinks Oezdemir will struggle to land his power shots and may force a dogfight, but Ulberg's improved cardio and fight IQ will carry him. He notes that Ulberg's grappling is a question mark, but Oezdemir doesn't have the wrestling to exploit it.

"I think Goldberg wins um minus 250 seems a little bit risque but I he's got all the tools in the shed to to make this work"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Ulberg over Volkan Oezdemir, despite acknowledging Oezdemir's potential to fraud-check prospects. He notes Oezdemir's hype was built on not getting hit, but since then only has a KO over Johnny Walker and couldn't finish Paul Craig. He believes Ulberg is more talented, trains at a good gym (City Kickboxing), and is now or never at 34. He predicts a competitive decision win for Ulberg.

decision win, competitive 29-28
"I'm going to go with Carlos alberg getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Zane picks Ulberg, arguing that his jab and range control will frustrate Oezdemir, who struggles against kickboxers that sit on a jab. He notes that Oezdemir's poor defensive striking and fragile confidence will be exposed if Ulberg can stick him from distance. Zane compares it to the Rakic fight, expecting a split decision where Ulberg's jab wins rounds.

Oezdemir opened +217, now +202; Ulberg opened -245, now -235.
"I think that Olberg can offer the thing that will most likely prevent Oezdemir from doing what will win him the fight. He can stick a jab on him."
KO (punches) R1 0:12 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Ulberg 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alonzo Menifield 1 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Ulberg 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alonzo Menifield 1 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Ulberg 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alonzo Menifield 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Ulberg 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alonzo Menifield 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alonzo Menifield vs. Carlos Ulberg
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ulberg (-245), Menifield (+205)

Round 1
Throughout his entire UFC run dating back to 2019, Texas-based powerhouse Menifield (15-3-1, 8-3-1 UFC) has never strung three wins together. Triumphant in his last two, he meets City Kickboxing’s Ulberg (9-1, 5-1 UFC), who seems to be putting it together piece by piece as he works his way up the 205-pound board. To the victor belong the spoils and a number next to their name. Taking charge of the Octagon will be referee Nick Berens, who hopes to not get caught with any errant blows when these two heavy hitters collide. Fists are bumped before they are traded. Menifield charges like a bull to start the fight, marauding forward and swinging his mighty fists with a vengeance. “Atomic Alonzo” lands with a looping right hand but crashes into the cage, and Ulberg turns him around and nails him with a right hook on the temple. A left from Ulberg sends Menifield down to the mat, and Menifield springs back up ready for blood.
Both men winging power shots, Ulberg’s cruise missile of a left hand finds its home on the jaw and puts Menifield down in a heap. Berens leaps between them when Menifield hits the deck, and Menifield protests but is holding his head and not entirely with it.
Menifield gets back upright, but his knees are wobbly, and his cries fall on deaf ears. This ridiculous fight wraps in less than 15 seconds, and it will clock in the top five at light heavyweight for fastest finishes when the time is official. The victorious Ulberg calls for his placement in the latest video game, while declaring that he will destroy any opponent in the top 10.

The Official Result
Carlos Ulberg def. Alonzo Menifield R1 0:12 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg because he is the better striker with legitimate fight-ending power and excellent takedown defense. He notes Ulberg's striking differential is impressive and he has a professional kickboxing background. He acknowledges Alonzo Menifield's power and takedown defense but believes Ulberg's technical striking and power give him the edge.

"I got to go Carlos ulberg here for the matchup"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg by decision, noting his volume advantage (over double Menifield's) and power. He trusts Ulberg the longer the fight goes, as Menifield typically wins in the first round and has a questionable loss to William Knight. He expects Ulberg to do better work across 15 minutes, and if Menifield wrestles, he will only get tired faster.

"I like orberg here I like orberg to win this fight probably by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Cody picks Ulberg, praising his improved kickboxing and ability to maintain volume without gassing. He notes that Ulberg learned from his loss to Kennedy Nzechukwu and now fights more conservatively, conserving energy. Cody believes Ulberg's superior technique and range will outpoint Menifield, who has poor cardio and relies on power. He also mentions that Menifield's wrestling is not a major threat, as he is not a good wrestler and gasses quickly.

"I like alberg here I think alberg is the rightful favorite at minus 260 to be perfectly honest"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel Vreeland picks Carlos Ulberg, highlighting his counter-striking style and the fact that his only loss came from gassing after a high-output first round. He notes that Ulberg can fight both safely and aggressively, and that Menifield's approach will determine the fight. He believes Ulberg has matured since that loss.

"I think it comes down to Mena Field's approach because orber can fight both ways safe or he can counter you very effectively."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The host confidently picks Ulberg due to his lateral movement, jab, and range management, which should keep Menifield at bay. He notes Menifield's power and ability to change fights with one shot, but believes Ulberg's discipline and striking volume will earn a decision. He expects Ulberg to avoid big shots and outpoint Menifield over three rounds.

"I'm going to go with alberg here and I think he ends up winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Paul picks Ulberg, emphasizing his clean kickboxing and ability to stay at range. He notes that Menifield has struggled against technical strikers like Justin Jacoby, and Ulberg presents similar problems. Paul points out that Menifield's takedowns are muscled and not technically sound, and he gasses quickly. He expects Ulberg to outpoint Menifield or land a kill shot, but advises caution due to Menifield's power.

"I'm just hoping that alberg is going to mind his PS and q's stick to the outside and more or less outpoint him or land that kill shot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Ulberg over Alonzo Menifield, despite considering an upset. He criticizes Menifield's mental game and notes his win over Jacoby was due to Jacoby's recklessness. He believes Ulberg's low kicks and elusive style will be effective, and predicts a late TKO or decision win.

"I'm going to go olberg... I think olberg will be able to low kick at range."
WIN vs Da Woon Jung
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:49 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Ulberg 1 81 of 154 52% 91 of 165 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:41
Da Woon Jung 0 58 of 120 48% 60 of 123 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Ulberg 1 19 of 36 52% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Da Woon Jung 0 17 of 30 56% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Ulberg 0 24 of 55 43% 24 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Da Woon Jung 0 23 of 44 52% 23 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carlos Ulberg 0 38 of 63 60% 46 of 72 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:38
Da Woon Jung 0 18 of 46 39% 20 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Ulberg 81 of 154 52% 50 of 119 20 of 23 11 of 12 59 of 126 8 of 9 14 of 19
Da Woon Jung 58 of 120 48% 14 of 59 12 of 20 32 of 41 55 of 115 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Ulberg 19 of 36 52% 7 of 22 7 of 8 5 of 6 17 of 31 1 of 2 1 of 3
Da Woon Jung 17 of 30 56% 0 of 5 3 of 4 14 of 21 17 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Carlos Ulberg 24 of 55 43% 21 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0 24 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Da Woon Jung 23 of 44 52% 4 of 18 4 of 9 15 of 17 23 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carlos Ulberg 38 of 63 60% 22 of 46 10 of 11 6 of 6 18 of 40 7 of 7 13 of 16
Da Woon Jung 18 of 46 39% 10 of 36 5 of 7 3 of 3 15 of 42 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo is very confident in Carlos Ulberg, calling him one of his most confident picks on the card. He notes that Ulberg's striking is elite with great footwork and range management. Jung is well-rounded but may try takedowns, but Ulberg should be too good a striker and should have improved takedown defense.

"I am confident in Carlos Uber very very confident one of my more confident picks on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg, noting his recent knockout performances and Da-un's poor recent form. He worries about Ulberg's untested takedown defense but thinks if it stays standing, Ulberg will knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout.

"I'll say oberg wins this fight wins this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Cody picks Ulberg confidently, citing his improvement since the Kennedy fight and his ability to finish fights early. He notes that Da-un has poor cardio, durability issues, and doesn't fight well at range. Cody expects Ulberg to win by knockout, possibly in the first round, and likes the under on significant strikes.

Ulberg by knockout (-140); under 1.5 rounds (-110); Ulberg under 50.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"Carlos oldberg gets the job done I would think by knockout but you know just to be safe ulberg just the straight up pick"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Ulberg but with some hesitation. He notes that both fighters are counter-strikers, which could lead to a slow fight. Ulberg has a nasty check left hook and big kicks, but Da-un is a step up in competition. Levi says he is not as confident as in Ulberg's previous fights because Da-un won't rush in recklessly. He still expects Ulberg to win, possibly by knockout if Da-un overcommits.

Odds mentioned: Ulberg minus 260, Da-un plus 220.
"I'm still picking olberg but the reason why I'm not as confident as I was against Ihor Potieria is because these guys are gonna go right after him whereas Da-un is kind of gonna sit back."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Ulberg is on a four-fight winning streak with three finishes, showing improved confidence and speed. He is a City Kickboxing product. Da-un is on a two-fight losing streak but is grindy and tough. Ulberg's early speed and power should be too much, and he will likely win by knockout. The KO prop is preferred over the heavy moneyline.

Ulberg by knockout
"I'm still going to take Aubrey to win by knockout but I'd rather take his knockout problem than I would the minus 300 on his money line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Paul picks Ulberg, noting his rapid improvement and Da-un's inconsistency. He mentions that Da-un looked lost against Sam Alvey and was exposed in his last two fights. Paul believes Ulberg's precision and power will be too much, and he likes the under on significant strikes.

Ulberg under 50.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"I think olberg is the guy who's trending in the in uh trending up and down Zhang has been always a wild cards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Ulberg over Jung Da-un, expressing frustration that Ulberg is not being given tougher opponents. He notes that Da-un can grapple with cage trips and throws but believes Ulberg's movement and striking on the back foot will neutralize that. He points out that Da-un has lost to Devin Clark and was knocked out by Jacoby, while Ulberg is on a four-fight win streak. He predicts Ulberg will win easily, likely by knockout.

"I'm going with Carlos auberg"
WIN vs Ihor Potieria
TKO (punches) R1 2:09 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Ulberg 1 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Ihor Potieria 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Ulberg 1 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Ihor Potieria 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Ulberg 13 of 21 61% 11 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 11 0 of 0 8 of 10
Ihor Potieria 5 of 9 55% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Ulberg 13 of 21 61% 11 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 11 0 of 0 8 of 10
Ihor Potieria 5 of 9 55% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo picks Ulberg, calling him a world-class kickboxer with incredible footwork and range management. He notes Ulberg has 100% takedown accuracy and defense (though only one attempt defended). He says Potieria is a brawler who keeps his hands low and relies on his chin. He expects Ulberg to win inside the distance and would hammer the under if a 2.5 round line is available.

Under 2.5 rounds if line available; has Ulberg in light parlays
"I gotta go Uber here for the win right his striking is so smooth both offensively and defensively"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Big Brady is very confident in Ulberg, calling him the much better striker. He notes Potieria has terrible striking defense and will rush in, allowing Ulberg to catch him. Brady references Ulberg's impressive first-round knockout of Negumereanu as evidence of his power. He sees no path to victory for Potieria outside of landing a big shot, and predicts Ulberg will starch him in the first round. He mentions Ulberg is a popular parlay piece but says he's not laying the -400 himself.

first round knockout
"olberg's Gonna Knock this guy out and he's going to knock him out in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Cody picks Ulberg by knockout, expecting him to flatline Potieria. He praises Ulberg's kickboxing and training with Adesanya, and notes Potieria's wild style and disrespectful behavior after the Shogun win. He believes Ulberg's precision will counter Potieria's aggression.

under 1.5 rounds, Carlos Ulberg by KO
"I expect Albrecht to absolutely Flatline him and knock him unconscious but your will come to fight you are will come to throw down but again it's like a precise technical kickboxer yeah puncher's chance I get it but uh …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Connor agrees with Zane, calling it a bad matchup for Potieria. He notes that Ulberg is a good low kicker and counter-puncher, and Potieria's wild pressure will play into Ulberg's hands. He thinks Potieria's lack of defense and inability to handle kicks will be his downfall.

"It's just a bad matchup for Potieria. He could win it, but... this just feels like it's going to be a lot like the Nicolai Nega Mariano fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Ulberg, highlighting his sharp striking and recent performances against tough opponents. He notes Ulberg's precise combinations and ability to avoid damage, as seen in his last fight where he wasn't touched. Levi criticizes Potieria's padded record and lack of high-level competition, though he acknowledges Potieria's power and the risk of a knockout. He believes Ulberg's cleaner technique and higher ceiling will prevail, but the price is too high for a bet.

missed line at -280; would have bet at that price
"I think olberg is a lot sharper a lot cleaner a lot more precise than e-horse so for that reason I'm gonna pick him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Ulberg is far superior in striking, with a disciplined kickboxing style. He has 100% takedown defense, though he hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler. Potieria has power but poor cardio and will likely gas trying to get the fight to the ground. Ulberg will keep it upright and walk Potieria into a big shot, knocking him out. The fight likely ends inside the distance.

fight doesn't go to decision, under 2.5 rounds
"I'm expecting violence here and I expect it to come from auberg by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Paul is confident in Ulberg, noting his consistent improvements and striking. He mentions Ulberg's adjustments after his first fight, and his ability to pick shots and finish. He sees Potieria as wild and less technical, and expects Ulberg to roll. He added Ulberg to a parlay.

added to parlay
"I think he absolutely rolls here what's your take"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Ulberg, calling it a mismatch. He notes that Ulberg is more complete on the feet and that Potieria's win over Shogun is not impressive. He predicts a TKO in round two or late in the first round.

TKO in round two or late first round
"I'm gonna have to go with Carlos alberg getting a KO here... I think I'm gonna go with all Burger getting a TKO in round two or something along those lines"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Zane picks Ulberg, noting that he has figured out his game after a prospect loss and now fights with more composure. He highlights Ulberg's good low kicks, straight punches, and counter-punching, which are terrible for Potieria's wild pressure style. He thinks Potieria has no answer to kicks and will be overwhelmed.

"It's just a bad matchup for Potieria. He could win it, but... this just feels like it's going to be a lot like the Nicolai Nega Mariano fight."
KO (punches) R1 3:44 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Ulberg 1 14 of 23 60% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Nicolae Negumereanu 0 2 of 14 14% 2 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Ulberg 1 14 of 23 60% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Nicolae Negumereanu 0 2 of 14 14% 2 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Ulberg 14 of 23 60% 8 of 15 2 of 2 4 of 6 12 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 3
Nicolae Negumereanu 2 of 14 14% 0 of 7 1 of 4 1 of 3 2 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Ulberg 14 of 23 60% 8 of 15 2 of 2 4 of 6 12 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 3
Nicolae Negumereanu 2 of 14 14% 0 of 7 1 of 4 1 of 3 2 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nicolae Negumereanu

Angelo acknowledges that Carlos Ulberg is the far better striker with superior technique and range, but he is concerned about Ulberg's untested takedown defense (only one takedown defended in the UFC). He notes that Negumereanu is incredibly durable, throws heat, and has a backup plan with slamming takedowns. Despite Ulberg's advantages, Angelo picks Negumereanu because he is the more well-rounded MMA fighter and believes Negumereanu's chin and takedowns will be the difference. He admits he is going against his own analysis.

"I'm gonna pick Nick and Moreno here because his chin is ridiculous his takedowns are live and he throws heat as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by decision. He believes Ulberg is the much better striker, while Negumereanu has terrible striking defense and absorbs many strikes. However, he notes Negumereanu has a great chin and could win if he gets takedowns. He trusts Ulberg's takedown defense due to training with Adesanya, and expects Ulberg to keep it at range and outpoint Negumereanu to a decision, as he doesn't think Ulberg can knock him out.

Ulberg by decision
"I'm gonna say olberg does out Point Negan Mariana to a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Cody picks Ulberg by decision, noting that Ulberg is more polished and a better kickboxer. He thinks Ulberg's improvements in footwork and fight IQ will allow him to stay at range and pick apart Negumereanu, who is durable but lacks a standout skill. Cody believes Ulberg's reach and technique will lead to a clear decision win.

"I got Albert and I'm also going to take Oliver by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Nicolae Negumereanu

Connor picks Negumereanu, noting that Ulberg has poor defense and either fights tentatively or gasses when he goes wild. He points out that Negumereanu is incredibly durable and will pressure Ulberg, forcing him into a brawl. Connor believes that Ulberg's lack of defense and tendency to collapse under pressure will be exploited by Negumereanu's relentless style.

"Nega Mariano is the purest brawler in the UFC and he absolutely rocks."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel Levi has a bet on Carlos Ulberg, citing Ulberg's cleaner striking and the fact that Negumereanu gets hit clean in every fight. He notes that Negumereanu relies on toughness and pressure, but Ulberg's counters will be there because Negumereanu comes forward. Levi believes Ulberg learned from his loss to Kennedy Nzechukwu (where he gassed) and will pace himself better. He predicts either a knockout or a clear decision win.

Bet 2.4 units to win 2 units at -120; predicts KO or unanimous decision
"I put two units on Carlos oberg at -1 uh 20. excuse me I put 2.4 units at minus 120 because I played it to win two units"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Nicolae Negumereanu

The host sees this as a 50/50 fight with a slight edge to Negumereanu due to his grit, durability, and ability to grind opponents. He notes Ulberg has a striking advantage but questions his comfort in a brawl. Negumereanu's path to victory via grinding and takedowns is more varied than Ulberg's knockout-only path. The host is taking a shot on Negumereanu around plus money.

"I'm gonna go Nega Mariano to help to kick off the card as an underdog and get his hand raised"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Paul picks Ulberg, agreeing that Ulberg's striking pedigree and improvements will be key. He notes that Negumereanu is durable but has been outstruck in fights and relies on pressure. Paul thinks Ulberg's reach and technique will allow him to control the fight, and he also likes the over 46.5 significant strikes prop for Ulberg.

Ulberg over 46.5 significant strikes
"I'm with you on alberg... more than 46.5 significant strikes for colors alberg seems very very good."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The MMA Guru leans towards Carlos Ulberg, noting that Negumereanu's win over Nzechukwu was a robbery and that Ulberg was schooling Nzechukwu before gassing out. He highlights Ulberg's smoother sailing and momentum, but acknowledges Negumereanu's reach advantage and potential takedowns. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Ulberg, expecting him to work back up from takedowns.

"I'm leaning towards Carlos orberg here so I'm gonna take him to win this one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Nicolae Negumereanu

Zane picks Negumereanu, agreeing that Ulberg's defensive issues and tendency to either be tentative or wild make him vulnerable. He notes that Negumereanu is unbreakable and will keep coming, and that Ulberg's best chance is an early knockout, but Negumereanu's durability makes that unlikely. Zane also points out that Negumereanu's pressure will draw the brawl out of Ulberg.

"Nega Mariano will just take the fight to him."
Tafon Nchukwi - Fight History
LOSS vs A.J. Dobson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
A.J. Dobson 0 67 of 134 50% 98 of 176 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:33
Tafon Nchukwi 0 53 of 99 53% 59 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 A.J. Dobson 0 34 of 65 52% 36 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
Tafon Nchukwi 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 A.J. Dobson 0 28 of 51 54% 29 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
Tafon Nchukwi 0 26 of 48 54% 27 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 A.J. Dobson 0 5 of 18 27% 33 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:57
Tafon Nchukwi 0 3 of 6 50% 8 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
A.J. Dobson 67 of 134 50% 19 of 75 12 of 18 36 of 41 61 of 119 2 of 5 4 of 10
Tafon Nchukwi 53 of 99 53% 11 of 47 12 of 15 30 of 37 49 of 92 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 A.J. Dobson 34 of 65 52% 6 of 31 10 of 15 18 of 19 31 of 59 0 of 0 3 of 6
Tafon Nchukwi 24 of 45 53% 4 of 20 7 of 10 13 of 15 24 of 44 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 A.J. Dobson 28 of 51 54% 12 of 31 2 of 3 14 of 17 26 of 47 2 of 4 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 26 of 48 54% 6 of 25 5 of 5 15 of 18 22 of 42 4 of 6 0 of 0
3 A.J. Dobson 5 of 18 27% 1 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 13 0 of 1 1 of 4
Tafon Nchukwi 3 of 6 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Angelo picks Dobson as an underdog but with low confidence. He notes Dobson has better wrestling and a sturdier chin, but worries he may be afraid to strike with Nchukwi. He hasn't bet yet.

"I like AJ in this Underdog spot"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi to win by decision, but is not confident due to chin concerns. He praises Nchukwi's volume, cardio, and wrestling, but notes he has been knocked out in his last two losses. He thinks Nchukwi should be the better striker over 15 minutes and can win minutes. He worries about Dobson's power but believes Nchukwi's volume will carry him.

"give me give me tafon by decision the chin seriously worries me a little bit though"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Cody picks Dobson, heavily fading Nchukwi. He questions Nchukwi's age (suspects he's older than listed), criticizes his slow speed, low volume, and lack of power. He notes Dobson is younger, faster, and still improving with a good camp (Matt Brown, Mark Coleman). He thinks Dobson's speed and wrestling will be key, and that Nchukwi may miss weight or look bad at weigh-ins.

Mentioned weigh-ins are key; will bet Dobson more if Nchukwi looks bad
"plus money on Dobson whatever I would take it I think he's got the speed of edge work some from the outside maybe mixes in a couple takedowns it's his coming out party"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

James slightly favors Dobson, citing his speed and power. He thinks Dobson is faster and hits harder, which could be the difference. However, he calls the fight extremely close and says he would flip the lines to make Dobson -150 and Nchukwi +120. He is unsure if he will bet it due to the closeness.

"I'd play Dobson here because I don't think anyone should be the underdog... I probably favor Dobson very slightly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Nchukwi is the better technical striker and should outwork Dobson over 15 minutes. Dobson lacks technical aspects in both wrestling and striking and relies on physical capabilities. Nchukwi is on a losing streak but had good moments in those fights. As long as he stays conscious, he should win by decision.

Nchukwi by decision
"give me in chukwi though and I think as long as he stays conscious he'll do a good enough job of working AJ Dobson and eventually winning this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Paul also picks Dobson, agreeing with Cody's fade of Nchukwi. He notes Nchukwi's move to 185 hasn't worked due to lack of speed, and that Dobson showed grappling improvements in his last fight. He thinks Dobson's wrestling and athleticism will be too much for Nchukwi, and that weigh-ins will be crucial. He will likely bet Dobson if Nchukwi looks depleted.

Weigh-ins key; will bet Dobson if Nchukwi looks bad
"I'm actually picking the underdog uh AJ Dobson with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

The MMA Guru picks A.J. Dobson over Tafon Nchukwi, arguing that Dobson's losses to Jacob Malkoun and Armen Petrosyan are to quality unranked middleweights. He notes Dobson's finishing potential and experience since 2012, while Nchukwi is coming off two KO losses, which may make him hesitant. He trusts Dobson to win by finish.

"I'm gonna go AJ Dobson over tap on and check where"
LOSS vs Carlos Ulberg
TKO (punches) R1 1:15 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Ulberg 1 15 of 19 78% 15 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Tafon Nchukwi 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Ulberg 1 15 of 19 78% 15 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Tafon Nchukwi 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Ulberg 15 of 19 78% 9 of 13 3 of 3 3 of 3 12 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 4
Tafon Nchukwi 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Ulberg 15 of 19 78% 9 of 13 3 of 3 3 of 3 12 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 4
Tafon Nchukwi 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg in a tough striking match. He acknowledges Tafon Nchukwi looked amazing in his last fight before getting caught, but worries that Nchukwi may be gun-shy coming off a KO loss less than three months ago. He believes Ulberg is the more technical striker and if Nchukwi lets Ulberg get into a rhythm, he'll lose a technical kickboxing match.

"i am going to pick ulberg here because stefan's ko loss is less than three months ago and not that i think his brains are still scrambled but i think he might be a little gun-shy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi to win by decision. He believes Nchukwi is the more complete MMA fighter with paths to victory via takedowns, cage control, and cardio. He notes Ulberg's untested takedown defense and ground game, and that Nchukwi has successfully taken down strong opponents. He favors Ulberg on the feet but thinks Nchukwi will make it an MMA fight and grind out a decision. He says the line should be flipped.

"i think the fawn has more paths to victory here... i think he takes down olberg and ultimately grinds out a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Cody leans towards Nchukwi, citing Ulberg's cardio issues and inexperience. He thinks Nchukwi's physical strength and wrestling could be key, especially in the smaller Apex cage. He also likes Nchukwi by submission at 18-1 as a longshot prop.

Nchukwi by submission +1800
"i'm leaning towards to find jaquie and enjoy by submission 18 to 1."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ulberg hasn't looked good and Nchukwi has a path via takedowns. He thinks the price is even and Nchukwi is live.

"it's an even money fight both sides of minus 110 both sides there's no real underdog but i'm i'm leaning towards to find jaquie"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

The host picks Tafon Nchukwi as an underdog, believing he will make improvements at 27 while Ulberg is older and less likely to improve. He notes Nchukwi nearly beat Azamat Murzakanov and looked good against Mike Rodriguez. He expects a KO in the second or third round, citing Ulberg's lack of toughness and Nchukwi's power.

KO prediction in round 2 or 3
"i'm going to go with taffon chuckwe"
KO (flying knee) R3 0:44 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Azamat Murzakanov 0 43 of 98 43% 50 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Tafon Nchukwi 1 28 of 69 40% 28 of 70 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Azamat Murzakanov 0 17 of 40 42% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Tafon Nchukwi 0 13 of 31 41% 13 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
2 Azamat Murzakanov 0 25 of 52 48% 25 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tafon Nchukwi 0 12 of 31 38% 12 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:26
3 Azamat Murzakanov 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tafon Nchukwi 1 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Azamat Murzakanov 43 of 98 43% 14 of 59 17 of 27 12 of 12 35 of 88 8 of 10 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 28 of 69 40% 25 of 60 3 of 8 0 of 1 26 of 67 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Azamat Murzakanov 17 of 40 42% 5 of 22 7 of 13 5 of 5 12 of 33 5 of 7 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 13 of 31 41% 11 of 24 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Azamat Murzakanov 25 of 52 48% 8 of 32 10 of 13 7 of 7 22 of 49 3 of 3 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 12 of 31 38% 11 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 1 10 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Azamat Murzakanov 1 of 6 16% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Angelo picks Azamat Murzakanov, expecting him to use his wrestling despite being known for striking. He notes that Tafon Nchukwi has more high-level experience but tends to back up and slow down under pressure. He believes Murzakanov's forward pressure and wrestling will be the difference.

"i actually think as matt will go to his wrestling here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Big Brady picks Azamat Murzakanov to win by first-round TKO. He notes Murzakanov is very well-rounded with heavy hands and a solid top game, but has cardio concerns since he's never been to a third round. He thinks Murzakanov can hurt Nchukwi on the feet or take him down and finish him, referencing Nchukwi's poor get-up game against Jung Park. However, he won't bet the fight due to the cardio and low-output risks.

first round tko
"I'm gonna take azamat murzakanov to win i'm gonna take him to win by first round tko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Cody is confident in Murzakanov, citing his speed, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Nchukwi's size but believes Murzakanov's speed and pressure will be too much. He mentions a parlay with Ankalaev.

Parlay with Ankalaev at -106
"i think murzakanov seems to be a pretty complete package"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel Levi picks Azamat Murzakanov, stating that he is a little more experienced, smarter, and more comfortable in the cage. He thinks Murzakanov will point-fight for three rounds or possibly find a finish. Levi acknowledges Tafon Nchukwi's power and potential but believes Murzakanov's experience and fewer mistakes will be the difference.

"i'm gonna go with azuma to to get the win here man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Murzakanov is a fast, agile striker with good cardio and takedown ability. He can close distance quickly and has power in both hands. Nchukwi has speed and cardio issues, and may overextend. Murzakanov is expected to outwork Nchukwi over 15 minutes or finish late, with a decision at plus 320 being a value play.

Murzakanov via decision at plus 320 is the official prediction.
"I like Azamat here. I think he outworks Tafon over 15 minutes or he potentially finishes Tafon late in this fight. So as an official prediction, I will go with Murzakanov via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Paul is confident in Murzakanov, citing his speed, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Nchukwi's size but believes Murzakanov's speed and pressure will be too much. He mentions a parlay with Ankalaev.

Parlay with Ankalaev
"i think murzakanov seems to be a pretty complete package"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

The MMA Guru picks Azamat Murzakanov over Tafon Nchukwi, citing his nasty hands and power advantage. He notes that Murzakanov has laid opponents out cold and has grappling to fall back on, referencing a video of him beating Ion Cuțelaba in a grappling competition. He predicts a first-round TKO, trusting Murzakanov's physicality and technique despite Nchukwi having good stand-up of his own.

first round TKO
"i'm going to start straight away with azamat mazakanov here i think he's a favorite for a reason he's a very very promising contender beat some good opponents laid a guy out cold in his last fight"
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
LOSS vs JunYong Park
Decision (majority) (30–25, 29–26, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 08, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
JunYong Park 0 71 of 145 48% 79 of 155 2 of 5 40% 2 0 3:49
Tafon Nchukwi 0 58 of 136 42% 64 of 144 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 JunYong Park 0 30 of 69 43% 30 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tafon Nchukwi 0 30 of 69 43% 32 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 JunYong Park 0 16 of 35 45% 16 of 35 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:34
Tafon Nchukwi 0 21 of 43 48% 24 of 48 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:34
3 JunYong Park 0 25 of 41 60% 33 of 51 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:15
Tafon Nchukwi 0 7 of 24 29% 8 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
JunYong Park 71 of 145 48% 61 of 134 4 of 5 6 of 6 48 of 117 3 of 3 20 of 25
Tafon Nchukwi 58 of 136 42% 20 of 83 25 of 33 13 of 20 51 of 127 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 JunYong Park 30 of 69 43% 24 of 62 2 of 3 4 of 4 28 of 67 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 30 of 69 43% 9 of 39 13 of 16 8 of 14 25 of 63 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 JunYong Park 16 of 35 45% 13 of 32 1 of 1 2 of 2 15 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 21 of 43 48% 9 of 28 8 of 10 4 of 5 19 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 JunYong Park 25 of 41 60% 24 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 16 0 of 0 20 of 25
Tafon Nchukwi 7 of 24 29% 2 of 16 4 of 7 1 of 1 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
JunYong Park

Big Brady likes Park's durability and chin, noting he has never been knocked out. He thinks Park will mix in takedowns to wear out Nchukwi, who may have cardio issues despite a good gas tank in his last fight. Brady is concerned about Nchukwi's striking defense after being hit by Pickett. He calls it a close fight that can go either way but leans Park by decision. He explicitly says no bet for him.

"I'm going to take park to win a very close decision but man like i said this fight can go either way but give me the underdog in jungyeon park no bet for me on this one."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Daniel Levi picks Tafon Nchukwi, arguing that African power can make up for experience and technique. He notes Nchukwi's good technique, cardio, and ability to go the distance as seen in the Pickett fight. He believes Nchukwi's takedown defense and get-up game will neutralize Park's wrestling, and that Nchukwi will outstrike Park. He respects Park but thinks Nchukwi is the better athlete.

"i'm gonna go with stefan chukwue uh to handle biz here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2021 (1 day before fight)
JunYong Park

The host favors JunYong Park as a live underdog, citing his durability, cardio, and ability to push the pace. He believes Nchukwi is one-dimensional and will struggle if he doesn't get an early knockout. He likes the over 2.5 rounds, fight goes to decision, and Park by decision props.

over 2.5 rounds, fight goes to decision -110, Park by decision +250
"i absolutely agree with the public underdog here in junior park as i think that he can put on a base on chukwue"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 3, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

The MMA Guru picks Tafon Nchukwi over JunYong Park, acknowledging it's a tough fight to predict. He thinks Nchukwi's size and strength will allow him to stop Park's takedowns and win by decision, possibly 30-27. He notes Nchukwi showed he can go three rounds in his last fight, which alleviates cardio concerns.

"i am going to be going with taffon chuckwee here i think he's just going to be a little bit too big and strong for jung young park"
WIN vs Jamie Pickett
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Dec 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tafon Nchukwi 1 120 of 187 64% 159 of 234 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:51
Jamie Pickett 0 40 of 81 49% 40 of 81 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tafon Nchukwi 0 35 of 58 60% 43 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Jamie Pickett 0 9 of 17 52% 9 of 17 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:32
2 Tafon Nchukwi 0 41 of 69 59% 54 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
Jamie Pickett 0 25 of 43 58% 25 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Tafon Nchukwi 1 44 of 60 73% 62 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:37
Jamie Pickett 0 6 of 21 28% 6 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tafon Nchukwi 120 of 187 64% 70 of 133 49 of 53 1 of 1 59 of 118 57 of 63 4 of 6
Jamie Pickett 40 of 81 49% 28 of 68 8 of 9 4 of 4 39 of 77 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tafon Nchukwi 35 of 58 60% 22 of 44 13 of 14 0 of 0 20 of 41 15 of 17 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 9 of 17 52% 7 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Tafon Nchukwi 41 of 69 59% 19 of 45 22 of 24 0 of 0 16 of 41 25 of 28 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 25 of 43 58% 15 of 33 6 of 6 4 of 4 24 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tafon Nchukwi 44 of 60 73% 29 of 44 14 of 15 1 of 1 23 of 36 17 of 18 4 of 6
Jamie Pickett 6 of 21 28% 6 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 19 0 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi over Jamie Pickett, noting Nchukwi's power and takedown defense (stuffed all takedowns seen on tape). He believes Pickett has no path to victory, as he cannot take Nchukwi down and will likely get knocked out. Brady predicts a first-round KO, though he notes Nchukwi's low output and the weight cut to 185 as potential concerns.

first round knockout
"i think he's gonna knock out picket here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

The host is confident in Nchukwi, citing his power, combinations, and high guard. He notes Pickett's tall-man defense and cardio issues. He predicts a first or second-round KO for Nchukwi and considers him a safe parlay piece, but advises waiting for weigh-ins due to Nchukwi's weight cut.

Nchukwi inside the distance, first or second round KO
"i think tufan could definitely be a problem for a lot of people"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

The Guru picks Tafon Nchukwi, believing he is a massive favorite. He notes Nchukwi's youth and improvement, and that he knocked out William Knight. He criticizes Jamie Pickett's level of competition and says Pickett is moving up in weight. He predicts a brutal first-round KO for Nchukwi.

Predicts a first-round KO/TKO.
"i think the chickwe is going to get a brutal ko in the first round... i think he'll get the job done against pika in the first round by tko"
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg in a tough striking match. He acknowledges Tafon Nchukwi looked amazing in his last fight before getting caught, but worries that Nchukwi may be gun-shy coming off a KO loss less than three months ago. He believes Ulberg is the more technical striker and if Nchukwi lets Ulberg get into a rhythm, he'll lose a technical kickboxing match.

"i am going to pick ulberg here because stefan's ko loss is less than three months ago and not that i think his brains are still scrambled but i think he might be a little gun-shy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi to win by decision. He believes Nchukwi is the more complete MMA fighter with paths to victory via takedowns, cage control, and cardio. He notes Ulberg's untested takedown defense and ground game, and that Nchukwi has successfully taken down strong opponents. He favors Ulberg on the feet but thinks Nchukwi will make it an MMA fight and grind out a decision. He says the line should be flipped.

"i think the fawn has more paths to victory here... i think he takes down olberg and ultimately grinds out a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Cody leans towards Nchukwi, citing Ulberg's cardio issues and inexperience. He thinks Nchukwi's physical strength and wrestling could be key, especially in the smaller Apex cage. He also likes Nchukwi by submission at 18-1 as a longshot prop.

Nchukwi by submission +1800
"i'm leaning towards to find jaquie and enjoy by submission 18 to 1."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ulberg hasn't looked good and Nchukwi has a path via takedowns. He thinks the price is even and Nchukwi is live.

"it's an even money fight both sides of minus 110 both sides there's no real underdog but i'm i'm leaning towards to find jaquie"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

The host picks Tafon Nchukwi as an underdog, believing he will make improvements at 27 while Ulberg is older and less likely to improve. He notes Nchukwi nearly beat Azamat Murzakanov and looked good against Mike Rodriguez. He expects a KO in the second or third round, citing Ulberg's lack of toughness and Nchukwi's power.

KO prediction in round 2 or 3
"i'm going to go with taffon chuckwe"