UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · May 04, 2019 · Featherweight · Completed
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Age 35
Height 5' 11"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 42
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Shane Burgos
7.4 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
6.78 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.43 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
91.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Cub Swanson
4.79 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.0 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.01 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Shane Burgos - Fight History
Decision (majority) (29–28, 29–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shane Burgos 0 42 of 80 52% 67 of 116 2 of 7 28% 3 0 6:25
Charles Jourdain 0 113 of 188 60% 161 of 241 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shane Burgos 0 12 of 27 44% 12 of 31 1 of 3 33% 1 0 1:24
Charles Jourdain 0 24 of 41 58% 39 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
2 Shane Burgos 0 4 of 8 50% 28 of 39 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:02
Charles Jourdain 0 5 of 11 45% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Shane Burgos 0 26 of 45 57% 27 of 46 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:59
Charles Jourdain 0 84 of 136 61% 115 of 169 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shane Burgos 42 of 80 52% 16 of 47 6 of 12 20 of 21 28 of 61 13 of 18 1 of 1
Charles Jourdain 113 of 188 60% 72 of 145 36 of 37 5 of 6 68 of 133 41 of 51 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shane Burgos 12 of 27 44% 3 of 13 4 of 8 5 of 6 6 of 17 6 of 10 0 of 0
Charles Jourdain 24 of 41 58% 10 of 26 10 of 11 4 of 4 14 of 27 9 of 13 1 of 1
2 Shane Burgos 4 of 8 50% 2 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Charles Jourdain 5 of 11 45% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Shane Burgos 26 of 45 57% 11 of 29 1 of 2 14 of 14 19 of 37 7 of 8 0 of 0
Charles Jourdain 84 of 136 61% 60 of 112 23 of 23 1 of 1 49 of 95 32 of 38 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Shane Burgos vs. Charles Jourdain
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burgos (-170), Jourdain (+145)

Round 1
Mayhem is almost certainly on the menu for this featherweight contest between ferocious strikers Burgos (14-3, 7-3 UFC) and Jourdain (13-4-1, 4-3-1 UFC). Receiving the biggest pop of the evening thus far is New Yorker Burgos, who hopes to channel the crowd’s energy and handle the high-flying Canadian. Referee Keith Peterson has his hands full for the nonsense-free chaos that is likely about to ensue, and the two men light the fuse that is their bout with a glove touch. Burgos immediately begins to walk the Canadian down, and he blocks a head kick from the retreating Jourdain. Burgos reaches Jourdain with a few punches, and Jourdain pushes out several front kicks. A right hand from Burgos shakes Jourdain up, and Jourdain bounces off the wall behind him to reset. Burgos continues his constant forward movement, and he unexpectedly grabs hold of the legs to try a takedown. Burgos manages to get Jourdain down, and he finds himself in guillotine choke danger. “Hurricane Shane” shakes off the choke so that he can move to take the back, and Jourdain stands up and tries to peel Burgos off of him with the wire. Burgos uses this moment to jump on to his back, and he kicks off the fence to pull Jourdain back down. When down on the ground, Burgos latches on to a neck crank, and Peterson checks to make sure that Jourdain is still with it. He is good to go, and he slides his neck out of the crushing grip. Jourdain stands up again, even with Burgos on his back, and he not as much moves out the back door as he does slide out the side, and he lowers Burgos down to the ground. Burgos explodes back to his feet, and when he does, Jourdain meets him with a punch that draws a smile. Jourdain ties his man up and unloads with several knees to the body, and these have a noticeable impact as he slows Burgos down and finds the home with several short yet powerful blows. Burgos strides forward confidently, and Jourdain counters him by trying to sweep the legs. Burgos keeps himself upright and blocks a few kicks, and he plods ahead to throw hands. Jourdain again ties him up and works the midsection with knees until they break. Burgos offers him a glove touch after the multiple successful blows, and he steps in with a leg kick. Burgos winds up with one that lands with a loud slap, and Jourdain grabs him and spams knees. “Air” Jourdain just misses with a flying knee, and the clinch draws out a few strikes before the horn sounds. This round could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain

Round 2
The featherweights meet in the middle with a slap of gloves to start off the round, and Jourdain backs off and reaches out with front kicks. Backing up, Jourdain sneaks in a right hand, and Burgos walks through it only to absorb a left hand that makes him smile. Jourdain is throwing leather as he keeps his safe range, and he beats Burgos to the punch in a few exchanges. Burgos rips the body with a right hand, but it is one-and-done as Jourdain escapes on the outside. When Jourdain overthrows on a strike, Burgos moves to take Jourdain from behind. Burgos manages to climb on to the back and lock up a body triangle while Jourdain is standing, leaning Burgos into the wall. Burgos cannot free his hands to hunt for a choke, but he does lean back to pull Jourdain away from the fencing and force Jourdain to bear his full weight. Jourdain bucks suddenly and bends over, and Burgos hands on tight and frees his hands to go after a rear-naked choke. Jourdain rolls all the way over, but Burgos’ body triangle keeps him tightly pressed on his man. The Canadian wriggles and shakes in an effort to get Burgos off of him, but it is to no avail, as Burgos starts to bop him on the sides of the head with very short punches. Burgos isolates the neck and bails on it to flirt with a Suloev Stretch, which makes Jourdain drop to his knees so a kneebar does not come from the position. The back control of Burgos is heavy and smothering, forcing Jourdain back down to his knees and nearly flattening him out. “Air” cannot get some space, and he finds himself in submission danger as Burgos locks on to a rear-naked choke that is just crushing on Jourdain’s jaw right below the nose. Jourdain toughs it out and stops Burgos from tapping him, and Burgos gets the crowd motivated as he smacks Jourdain upside the head until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burgos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burgos
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Burgos

Round 3
The exciting featherweights meet in the middle, and Burgos chops at the lead leg a few times to open up early. Jourdain responds with similar strikes, and they trade right hands as chants of “USA” rain down for the New Yorker. Burgos walks Jourdain down but eats several jabs on the way forward, and he is fighting in phone booth throwing punches to the body and kicks to the calf. Jourdain meets him with straight punches, and he chains a few punches together to mark Burgos’ face up. The jabs keep splitting the guard, and he backs Burgos up and scores several times without concern. Burgos is right there ready to trade, and he gets beaten to the punch several times as Jourdain’s left finds its home repeatedly. Jourdain strings together a sharp combination, leading to Burgos attempting a single. The Canadian defends it well and drills Burgos with multiple uppercuts, hurting Burgos but not getting him off of him. Burgos tries to pull Jourdain down, but Jourdain turns him around and knees him in the face. Burgos drops down to a knee when absorbing those strikes, and Jourdain rips the body several times. Jourdain lets his hands go as Burgos is reeling, and he is hurting Burgos with several big shots. Jourdain opens up with several hooks and kicks low, and Burgos’ single responses are labored and largely ineffective. Burgos, stuck against the wall, eats big punches and uppercuts, and Jourdain mixes it up with a flying knee. Jourdain unloads on Burgos with knees to the head and body, and his hands do not stop moving as he batters Burgos constantly. Burgos looks at the camera and sticks out his tongue, and Jourdain looses a vicious elbow that staggers Burgos. The New Yorker falls back against the fence, and he rebounds and ducks down to tie Jourdain up from the back. Burgos takes the back and slows the onslaught, and Jourdain grabs the fence to stay afloat. Jourdain yells “come on” as Burgos drags him down, only to spring right back up. With seconds left on the clock, they throw caution to the wind, and Jourdain nails him with a head kick. Burgos swings with everything he has left, as does Jourdain, and Peterson has to get between them when the final bell sounds. What a round for Jourdain, doing to Burgos what Burgos likes to do to people. They go the distance, and this fight could hinge on the first round’s score.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain (29-28 Jourdain)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain (29-28 Jourdain)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain (29-28 Jourdain)

The Official Result
Shane Burgos def. Charles Jourdain via Majority Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Angelo picks Shane Burgos, citing his pressure, volume, and body work. He acknowledges Jourdain's power and chin, but believes Burgos's insane output (232 strikes in last fight) will be the difference. He notes the odds are wider than expected and expects a close fight.

predicts fight of the night candidate
"shane is the pick but this will be a fun fight and i do think this will be a very close fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Big Brady picks Shane Burgos to win by decision. He highlights Burgos's volume (almost 8 significant strikes per minute) and a 6.5-inch reach advantage as key factors. He acknowledges Burgos's poor striking defense and reliance on his chin, but believes Burgos's skill and volume will outwork Jourdain. He expects a war but thinks Burgos wins on the scorecards.

"i'm gonna say burgos wins this fight um based off of the volume here it's gonna be a war it's gonna be fun give me shane burgos to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Cody picks Burgos, citing his high volume and experience against elite competition. He notes that Burgos lands a massive number of significant strikes and has fought top featherweights, while Jourdain's wins are over lower-level opponents. Cody acknowledges Burgos' chin issues but believes his forward pressure and output will overwhelm Jourdain.

Fight of the Night (plus 600)
"i think it's going to be an absolute scrap burgos could get knocked out we need to recognize that he fights reckless he fights dangerous"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Daniel Levi picks Shane Burgos, believing Burgos is slightly ahead of Jourdain at this stage. He praises Burgos's boxing, pressure, and durability, but notes his defensive flaws and tendency to fight with his hands down. Levi thinks Jourdain is improving but not ready yet, and expects Burgos to win via pressure and pocket boxing.

concerns about Burgos's chin and defense
"i'm gonna pick shane burgos to win it's just the concerns are the guy fights with his hands down his chin up"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Paul agrees with Cody, stating that Burgos' volume and durability will be key. He notes that Burgos has fought and performed well against top-tier opponents, while Jourdain's resume is less impressive. Paul expects a high-paced war but believes Burgos' experience and output will carry him to victory.

"i totally agree not even gonna add anything to it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The MMA Guru picks Shane Burgos over Charles Jourdain, citing Burgos's durability and Jourdain's tendency to fade. He references Jourdain's loss to Julian Erosa, who walked him down, and believes Burgos's chin and pressure will be too much. He predicts Burgos will finish Jourdain by TKO in the third round with body shots and ground-and-pound.

predicts third-round TKO
"i think he's going to get a finish in round three by tko to ground and pound finishing off charles jordan"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shane Burgos 0 193 of 288 67% 232 of 329 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:26
Billy Quarantillo 0 164 of 349 46% 196 of 383 0 of 14 0% 0 0 2:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shane Burgos 0 54 of 81 66% 68 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Billy Quarantillo 0 63 of 131 48% 81 of 150 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
2 Shane Burgos 0 82 of 114 71% 85 of 117 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Billy Quarantillo 0 54 of 130 41% 57 of 133 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
3 Shane Burgos 0 57 of 93 61% 79 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:00
Billy Quarantillo 0 47 of 88 53% 58 of 100 0 of 10 0% 0 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shane Burgos 193 of 288 67% 133 of 219 32 of 37 28 of 32 162 of 252 30 of 35 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 164 of 349 46% 129 of 301 28 of 39 7 of 9 145 of 322 19 of 27 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shane Burgos 54 of 81 66% 37 of 61 8 of 9 9 of 11 53 of 79 1 of 2 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 63 of 131 48% 49 of 109 11 of 17 3 of 5 54 of 120 9 of 11 0 of 0
2 Shane Burgos 82 of 114 71% 55 of 84 14 of 17 13 of 13 71 of 100 11 of 14 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 54 of 130 41% 43 of 116 8 of 11 3 of 3 52 of 125 2 of 5 0 of 0
3 Shane Burgos 57 of 93 61% 41 of 74 10 of 11 6 of 8 38 of 73 18 of 19 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 47 of 88 53% 37 of 76 9 of 11 1 of 1 39 of 77 8 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Angelo picks Shane Burgos, but acknowledges Billy Quarantillo as a live underdog. He notes Burgos's high volume, body work, and chin, but also his high strike absorption rate. He believes Burgos's takedown defense (89%) will be tested, but that Burgos has shown he can get back up. He thinks the longer the fight goes, the more Burgos's body shots will pay off.

"i very narrowly am going to side with shane here because even though billy has the better striking stats at this point in his career shane's chin is still holding up"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Big Brady picks Shane Burgos to win by decision. He notes Burgos's striking volume and power, while Quarantillo is hittable and may struggle to get takedowns. Brady acknowledges Burgos's durability and takedown defense, but also his recent knockout loss and short turnaround. He thinks Quarantillo's wrestling won't be effective against Burgos, and the fight will be a war with Burgos winning on the feet.

win by decision
"i'll go decision i'll say shane burgos does win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Cody picks Burgos, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He believes Burgos will keep the fight standing, chip away, and win a decision. He notes Quarantillo's cardio and toughness but doubts his power to hurt Burgos. He recommends Burgos by decision at +175.

Burgos by decision (+175)
"i got to go with shane burgos and if i'm trying to improve that line i go with burgos by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Daniel Levi picks Billy Quarantillo as a plus 170 dog, fading Shane Burgos because Burgos fights with his hands down and hasn't learned his lesson. Levi believes Quarantillo is a dog who will capitalize on that weakness, and that Burgos's last fight against Edson Barboza was uncomfortable to watch. He notes that Quarantillo leveled up after the Gavin Tucker loss and ran through Gabriel Benitez. Levi expects a dogfight where Quarantillo thrives.

plus 170 dog
"give me billy q for the upset"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Jacob picks Shane Burgos, emphasizing his grappling skills as a black belt and his body shots. He believes Burgos is no slouch on the ground and can handle Quarantillo's grappling. He thinks the fight could turn into a grappling match, but Burgos is well-rounded. He likes Burgos all the way, though he is unsure about the DraftKings price.

"i'm shane all the way you know at 9 000 i don't know if i love that 9 000 mark for for draftkings"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Shane Burgos

The host picks Burgos by decision, believing his technical striking and movement will outclass Quarantillo's pressure. He notes Burgos' chin and durability should hold up. He considered Burgos' decision prop at +200 but thinks it's a sweat.

"i like shane burgos here i think his chin holds up his durability holds up and he showcases that he's the much better technical striker"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Paul agrees with Cody, seeing Burgos as the better striker. He notes Quarantillo needs to get the fight to the mat to win, but Burgos's takedown defense should keep it standing. He doesn't love the price but thinks Burgos wins.

"i was kind of seeing it the same way didn't really love the price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The Guru picks Shane Burgos, citing his reach advantage and improved grappling defense. He believes Burgos will pick Quarantillo apart at range with body shots and leg kicks, and that Quarantillo lacks the power to KO Burgos. The Guru predicts a 29-28 decision, with Burgos winning two rounds clearly.

"I'm gonna go shane burgos here."
LOSS vs Edson Barboza
KO (punches) R3 1:16 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 0 80 of 180 44% 80 of 180 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Shane Burgos 1 98 of 191 51% 98 of 191 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 0 33 of 79 41% 33 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Shane Burgos 0 41 of 83 49% 41 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Edson Barboza 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shane Burgos 0 39 of 82 47% 39 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Edson Barboza 0 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shane Burgos 1 18 of 26 69% 18 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 80 of 180 44% 41 of 131 24 of 33 15 of 16 80 of 179 0 of 1 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 98 of 191 51% 51 of 134 14 of 17 33 of 40 96 of 189 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 33 of 79 41% 20 of 65 10 of 11 3 of 3 33 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 41 of 83 49% 19 of 55 5 of 5 17 of 23 41 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Edson Barboza 40 of 83 48% 19 of 55 14 of 21 7 of 7 40 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 39 of 82 47% 23 of 63 8 of 10 8 of 9 39 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Edson Barboza 7 of 18 38% 2 of 11 0 of 1 5 of 6 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 18 of 26 69% 9 of 16 1 of 2 8 of 8 16 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Burgos has a phenomenal chin, high volume (7.31 strikes/min), and excellent cardio. Barboza struggles with pressure and has low output. Burgos will pressure Barboza, land more strikes, and wear him down. I expect a late knockout in the third round as the damage accumulates.

by KO round 3
"I'm gonna take burgos to win here i'm gonna take him to win by um i'll say i'll say third round knockout for shane burgos"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Cody is a Burgos fan and picks him confidently. He argues that Barboza has taken too much damage over his career and is slowing down. Cody believes Burgos will walk Barboza down, out-volume him, and win a decision. He notes that Burgos is younger and his wrestling and ground game are improving.

"i'm obviously a burgos guy first and foremost like what he brings to the table these tigers shulman guys i mean universally across the board they're doing some excellent stuff"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Daniel Levi picks Shane Burgos, emphasizing his high work rate, forward pressure, and durability. He notes that Barboza fades in later rounds and has been outworked by pressure fighters like Dan Ige. Levi thinks Burgos's chin can hold up to Barboza's early power, and that his constant pressure will break Barboza. He predicts a 29-27 decision or late TKO for Burgos.

mentions Burgos's underrated kicks and Barboza's chin issues
"i got to go with burgos here because of the pressure the output and the non-stop forward pressure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The host picks Burgos with relatively high confidence after watching tape. He notes Burgos's pressure and forward movement will trouble Barboza, who struggles when backed up. He thinks Burgos has better volume and versatility, and that Barboza's leg kicks are a concern but Burgos can eat them. He predicts a decision win for Burgos.

Burgos by decision
"i'll go burgos and i'll go with burgers by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Paul picks Burgos, noting that Barboza is past his prime and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Burgos will out-volume Barboza and win a decision. Paul mentions that Barboza's chin is questionable and he slows down in later rounds. He expects a close first round, then Burgos pulling away.

"the pick would be burgos but it's like you know this is an all-action fight between two strikers"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The MMA Guru picks Shane Burgos over Edson Barboza, citing Burgos's youth, reach advantage, and excellent chin. He believes Barboza will win the first round but slow down, allowing Burgos to take over in the second and third. He predicts a 29-27 decision for Burgos and suggests betting on a draw as a prop.

Bet on a draw (prop bet mentioned)
"i'm going with hurricane shane burgos"
LOSS vs Josh Emmett
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 2 127 of 266 47% 136 of 275 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:24
Shane Burgos 0 128 of 250 51% 148 of 270 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 36 of 88 40% 36 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Shane Burgos 0 46 of 66 69% 46 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Josh Emmett 0 40 of 88 45% 40 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shane Burgos 0 48 of 90 53% 48 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Josh Emmett 2 51 of 90 56% 60 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Shane Burgos 0 34 of 94 36% 54 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 127 of 266 47% 98 of 232 16 of 21 13 of 13 111 of 243 0 of 0 16 of 23
Shane Burgos 128 of 250 51% 68 of 174 20 of 32 40 of 44 121 of 243 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 36 of 88 40% 26 of 76 5 of 7 5 of 5 36 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 46 of 66 69% 20 of 33 8 of 14 18 of 19 39 of 59 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Josh Emmett 40 of 88 45% 33 of 81 2 of 2 5 of 5 40 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 48 of 90 53% 28 of 66 7 of 9 13 of 15 48 of 90 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Josh Emmett 51 of 90 56% 39 of 75 9 of 12 3 of 3 35 of 67 0 of 0 16 of 23
Shane Burgos 34 of 94 36% 20 of 75 5 of 9 9 of 10 34 of 94 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady picks Josh Emmett to win by knockout in the second round, citing Emmett's tremendous power and Burgos' tendency to absorb a lot of strikes. He thinks the small cage will help Emmett engage more and land a clean shot. He notes that on paper Burgos looks great, but Emmett's power is a game-changer.

pick by knockout in second round; suggests betting Emmett by KO prop
"I am picking Josh Emmett to win here by knockout I know Burgos is probably a popular bet this week but I just see in my head when this plays out just Emmett cracking them at some point and knocking …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Daniel Levi leans toward Shane Burgos, citing his superior technique, variety of strikes, and size advantage. He acknowledges Josh Emmett's one-punch knockout power and notes that Burgos fights with his hands down, which is risky. Levi sees Burgos winning a decision if it goes the distance but admits Emmett could knock him out at any time. He calls it a pass from a betting perspective.

pass from betting perspective
"I'm going to lean with Shane Burgos here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Burgos has a great chin and recovery, as seen in the Calvillo fight. He stalks opponents, cuts off the cage, and rips to the body. The smaller cage benefits his pressure style. He will eat Emmett's power shots, make him gas, and get a TKO in the third round.

"Shane Burgos gets it done the reach advantage to size advantage it's just all too much to bet against Shane Burgos here... eventual third round TKO"
TKO (punches) R3 4:32 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shane Burgos 1 105 of 155 67% 161 of 217 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:31
Makwan Amirkhani 0 22 of 48 45% 23 of 49 3 of 19 15% 1 0 4:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shane Burgos 0 6 of 17 35% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Makwan Amirkhani 0 8 of 14 57% 9 of 15 3 of 10 30% 1 0 2:45
2 Shane Burgos 0 27 of 44 61% 61 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Makwan Amirkhani 0 5 of 16 31% 5 of 16 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:16
3 Shane Burgos 1 72 of 94 76% 84 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Makwan Amirkhani 0 9 of 18 50% 9 of 18 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shane Burgos 105 of 155 67% 61 of 108 41 of 43 3 of 4 39 of 78 15 of 17 51 of 60
Makwan Amirkhani 22 of 48 45% 21 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0 21 of 47 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shane Burgos 6 of 17 35% 4 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0
Makwan Amirkhani 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 7 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Shane Burgos 27 of 44 61% 11 of 25 14 of 16 2 of 3 14 of 28 1 of 1 12 of 15
Makwan Amirkhani 5 of 16 31% 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Shane Burgos 72 of 94 76% 46 of 68 25 of 25 1 of 1 20 of 35 13 of 14 39 of 45
Makwan Amirkhani 9 of 18 50% 8 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Cub Swanson
Decision (split) (30–27, 27–30, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · May 04, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shane Burgos 0 129 of 256 50% 132 of 260 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:37
Cub Swanson 0 134 of 268 50% 147 of 282 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shane Burgos 0 37 of 73 50% 37 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cub Swanson 0 41 of 81 50% 41 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Shane Burgos 0 43 of 96 44% 43 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cub Swanson 0 48 of 95 50% 48 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Shane Burgos 0 49 of 87 56% 52 of 91 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:37
Cub Swanson 0 45 of 92 48% 58 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shane Burgos 129 of 256 50% 66 of 167 14 of 26 49 of 63 113 of 239 11 of 12 5 of 5
Cub Swanson 134 of 268 50% 82 of 208 18 of 25 34 of 35 128 of 260 6 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shane Burgos 37 of 73 50% 18 of 42 5 of 11 14 of 20 37 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 41 of 81 50% 24 of 60 5 of 9 12 of 12 40 of 80 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Shane Burgos 43 of 96 44% 26 of 73 5 of 9 12 of 14 41 of 94 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 48 of 95 50% 31 of 75 5 of 7 12 of 13 48 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Shane Burgos 49 of 87 56% 22 of 52 4 of 6 23 of 29 35 of 72 9 of 10 5 of 5
Cub Swanson 45 of 92 48% 27 of 73 8 of 9 10 of 10 40 of 85 5 of 7 0 of 0
Submission (armbar) R1 2:11 · UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Nov 03, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shane Burgos 0 17 of 24 70% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Kurt Holobaugh 1 21 of 51 41% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shane Burgos 0 17 of 24 70% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Kurt Holobaugh 1 21 of 51 41% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shane Burgos 17 of 24 70% 13 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 2 17 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kurt Holobaugh 21 of 51 41% 14 of 40 1 of 2 6 of 9 19 of 48 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shane Burgos 17 of 24 70% 13 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 2 17 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kurt Holobaugh 21 of 51 41% 14 of 40 1 of 2 6 of 9 19 of 48 1 of 2 1 of 1
LOSS vs Calvin Kattar
TKO (punches) R3 0:32 · UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · Jan 20, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Calvin Kattar 1 85 of 194 43% 86 of 195 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Shane Burgos 0 89 of 186 47% 91 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Calvin Kattar 0 40 of 76 52% 40 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shane Burgos 0 33 of 78 42% 33 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Calvin Kattar 0 35 of 94 37% 36 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Shane Burgos 0 55 of 101 54% 57 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Calvin Kattar 1 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Shane Burgos 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Calvin Kattar 85 of 194 43% 73 of 174 5 of 10 7 of 10 79 of 182 1 of 2 5 of 10
Shane Burgos 89 of 186 47% 46 of 126 25 of 38 18 of 22 86 of 182 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Calvin Kattar 40 of 76 52% 32 of 66 4 of 5 4 of 5 40 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 33 of 78 42% 21 of 61 8 of 12 4 of 5 33 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Calvin Kattar 35 of 94 37% 31 of 84 1 of 5 3 of 5 34 of 92 1 of 2 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 55 of 101 54% 25 of 60 17 of 25 13 of 16 52 of 97 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Calvin Kattar 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 14 0 of 0 5 of 10
Shane Burgos 1 of 7 14% 0 of 5 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cub Swanson - Fight History
WIN vs Nate Landwehr
TKO R1 4:06 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 2 37 of 49 75% 40 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Nate Landwehr 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 2 37 of 49 75% 40 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Nate Landwehr 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 37 of 49 75% 23 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 35 of 46 0 of 0 2 of 3
Nate Landwehr 15 of 30 50% 9 of 22 1 of 1 5 of 7 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 37 of 49 75% 23 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 35 of 46 0 of 0 2 of 3
Nate Landwehr 15 of 30 50% 9 of 22 1 of 1 5 of 7 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Angelo picks Cub Swanson in his retirement fight, citing his superior technique, fight IQ, and all-around skills. He notes Landwehr's reliance on his chin, which has given out, and believes Swanson is the better fighter everywhere. He expects the crowd support to help in a decision.

"I have to pick Cub Swanson here. Obviously, Nate is very gritty, very tough, but if your chin gives out, your chin gives out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Big Brady expects a war, noting both fighters are durable and willing to brawl. He thinks Landwehr could use his grappling to submit Swanson, who has been submitted seven times. He worries about Landwehr's recent knockout losses and damage taken, but leans Landwehr by submission in the second or third round.

third round submission
"I'm going to take Nate Landwehr to win this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody also picks Swanson, citing Landwehr's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Swanson's speed and volume will be too much for Landwehr, who has been knocked out recently.

"I got to go against the grain, go against my boy... for me, it's going to be a Cup Swanson play."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Connor picks Landwehr, arguing that Swanson is too slow now and that Landwehr's pressure and durability will be too much. He notes that Swanson's last fight against Billy Quarantillo was tooth-and-nail, and that Swanson can't move his feet anymore. Connor believes Landwehr is still capable of winning a grimy pocket fight, and that Swanson's age (42) and layoff will catch up to him. He thinks Swanson will end up in Landwehr's kind of fight and get chin-checked.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think he'll beat Nate Landware? This would be a good one to discuss then. Why do you think he'll lose? Uh, Landware is a, not a lot better, but a little bit better of an athlete."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel respects Swanson but thinks Landwehr's pace and calf kicks will be too much for the 42-year-old. He sees Landwehr winning by accumulation of damage or submission.

"I'm going to go Nate Landworth here. I really think that if Nate Lander doesn't get knocked out or badly compromised, his pace is going to be too much for Cub Swanson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, believing that Landwehr's pressure, leg kicks, and grappling will overwhelm the aging Cub Swanson. He notes that Swanson's cardio fades after the first round and that Landwehr is durable and gets better as the fight goes on. He also mentions that Swanson's retirement fight may be a paycheck fight.

"I think you get me to round two, you get me to round three, and Nate cooks him to the bone. So, I'm going with Nate Landwehr here, and I actually am considering a bet in this spot."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nate Landwehr

The host leans towards Landwehr due to Swanson's long layoff (2 years) at age 42, which could lead to significant decline. He notes Landwehr's more recent fight showed better cardio, while Swanson slowed in his last fights. He also thinks Landwehr is more likely to be fully focused, while Swanson has outside business distractions. However, he acknowledges both fighters are old and inconsistent, so confidence is low.

Likes Landwehr +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes over but warns against betting over due to age.
"I would lean towards Nate Landwehr in this fight for a few reasons. The first being, Cub's coming in on a long layoff. And at 42 years old, you can significantly decline in a very short space of time."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

James picks Cub Swanson, citing his experience in wars and technical striking advantage. He acknowledges Landwehr's pressure but believes Swanson's durability and power will prevail.

"I'm actually going to pick Cub Swanson in this one cuz I feel like he's been there, done it multiple times."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Swanson's technical striking and counter-punching should be the difference. Landwehr is durable but tends to run into shots and has been knocked out recently. Swanson's footwork and experience allow him to land clean counters. Landwehr may try to grapple, but Swanson's defensive grappling is solid. Swanson should get the knockout in his retirement fight.

Swanson wins by knockout
"I think he gets his Swan song in emphatic fashion. And I think he gets a knockout victory over Nate the Train Lanware."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Swanson, noting his experience, speed, and training with young killers. He believes Landwehr's durability is declining and Swanson's crisp striking will prevail.

"Honestly, I am going with Cub Swanson. And I just feel like Cub... he's not a little cub anymore. He's Papa Bear Swanson now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr. He believes Swanson still has it, with recent wins over Billy Quarantillo and a split decision with Andre Fili. He notes Landwehr gets caught and KO'd, and Swanson can land a looping overhand. He predicts a TKO win in round one or two, with Swanson having a retirement send-off.

"I'm going to go with Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson, arguing that Landwehr is too simplistic and one-dimensional. He notes that Swanson still has head movement and pocket comfort, and that Landwehr has no footwork, feints, or subtlety. Zane believes Swanson can outclass Landwehr, comparing it to Swanson fighting a downgraded version of Jeremy Stevens. He acknowledges Swanson's age but thinks his experience and savvy will prevail. He hopes Swanson wins and retires on a high note.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think cub can outclass him, honestly. Yeah, I want cub to outclass him."
KO (punch) R3 1:36 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 1 99 of 158 62% 114 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Billy Quarantillo 0 97 of 237 40% 108 of 249 3 of 11 27% 0 0 2:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 0 39 of 57 68% 40 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Billy Quarantillo 0 37 of 88 42% 37 of 88 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:14
2 Cub Swanson 0 40 of 69 57% 54 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Billy Quarantillo 0 38 of 105 36% 49 of 117 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:38
3 Cub Swanson 1 20 of 32 62% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Billy Quarantillo 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 99 of 158 62% 74 of 127 13 of 18 12 of 13 95 of 154 4 of 4 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 97 of 237 40% 65 of 188 20 of 32 12 of 17 91 of 222 6 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 39 of 57 68% 23 of 38 7 of 10 9 of 9 39 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 37 of 88 42% 22 of 66 6 of 10 9 of 12 37 of 87 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Cub Swanson 40 of 69 57% 35 of 61 4 of 6 1 of 2 36 of 65 4 of 4 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 38 of 105 36% 31 of 91 6 of 12 1 of 2 32 of 91 6 of 14 0 of 0
3 Cub Swanson 20 of 32 62% 16 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 2 20 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 22 of 44 50% 12 of 31 8 of 10 2 of 3 22 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo leans toward Quarantillo because he will be a touch faster with better movement, but he acknowledges Cub Swanson's toughness and all-around skills. He notes Quarantillo's aggression, BJJ, and volume striking, while Swanson is old and slow but still dangerous. He is considering betting the over 1.5 rounds and a plus 3.5 spread on Swanson, expecting a close decision.

Considering over 1.5 rounds and plus 3.5 spread on Cub Swanson.
"For pick purposes... I am going to lean Billy but there's two bets... I'm going to hammer the over cuz I do think this fight's going to go to decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by third-round submission. He thinks Quarantillo's pressure, volume, and grappling can break Swanson, especially if he gets the fight to the mat. He notes Swanson has been submitted many times. However, he worries about Quarantillo's chin and durability, as Swanson still has power.

"I'll take Billy Q here I'll take Billy q and I think he wins this fight by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody picks Billy Quarantillo, citing his high volume striking (7.36 strikes per minute), pressure, and submission threat. He notes Cub Swanson's age (41), mileage, and recent losses, and believes Billy's pace and durability will overwhelm Cub. Cody also mentions the hometown advantage for Billy in Tampa.

"I got Billy it feels like I'm going to have to trust Billy a little more this week than I'd like to."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Connor also picks Swanson, citing that Quarantillo's style is similar to Colby Covington's and ages out quickly. He notes that Swanson is still sharp and dangerous, with better boxing and power, and that Quarantillo's wrestling is not a reliable path to victory. Connor thinks Quarantillo may be 'shot' and that Swanson's experience will prevail.

Swanson opened at +137, now +136; Quarantillo opened at -153, now -152
"I'm going to pick him too. If nothing else, I'm going to do it for the old man out there."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel Vreeland picks Cub Swanson for the upset, despite being a fan of Billy Quarantillo. He argues that Quarantillo's comeback style relies on taking damage early, and at 36, that may be harder to sustain. Vreeland notes Swanson's speed, accuracy, and experience in wars, comparing this to Swanson's fight against Darren Elkins. He believes Swanson will land significant damage before Quarantillo can drag him into deep waters.

"I'm goingon go with Cub Swanson for the upset"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Lucrative James picks Cub Swanson as an underdog, acknowledging it's a close fight. He believes Swanson has more knockout upside early and can land heavy shots to stop Quarantillo's pressure. He notes Swanson's veteran savvy and power, but admits concerns about Swanson's age (41) and potential cardio decline. He sees value in Swanson at plus odds, though he is not fully confident.

"I'm going to go with the underdog in this one I'm going to go with Cub Swanson I think he's got more knockout upside early."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Quarantillo's relentless and smothering grappling style will cause Cub Swanson trouble. He will crowd Swanson's space, jump on his back, and sink in a rear-naked choke, with the finish coming within 10 minutes.

wins by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 1 or 2
"cornello has the Relentless and smothering grappling style to cause Cub Swanson a lot of trouble obviously Swanson will be the better Striker here but look for this corano to crowd his space eventually jumping on the back of Cub …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul picks Billy Quarantillo but with some hesitation. He notes that Billy's pace can be stifled by wrestling, but Cub Swanson is unlikely to use that approach. Paul sees it as a standup affair where Billy's volume and pressure should win out, though he acknowledges Cub's toughness and the possibility of a competitive first round.

"I have a little bit of concern with Billy I I mean I guess the one thing that keeps his Pace off is when his opponent's able to wrestle him and I really don't think Cub Swanson's going to be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson as an underdog, calling Billy Quarantillo 'absolute garbage'. He criticizes Quarantillo's lack of explosiveness and poor distance management, and notes that Swanson has better hands, power, and body work. He predicts Swanson will target the body and possibly get a body shot TKO in round two. He also notes that Quarantillo has been exposed in recent fights.

body shot TKO in round two
"I'm going to lean towards Cub Swanson I could even see a body shot TKO I know I predict a body shot TKO nearly every card but this is the one I'm predicting for this card body shot TKO Cubs …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson because Quarantillo's pressure style is aging poorly and he has been getting hurt and finished in recent fights. He notes that Swanson still has solid boxing fundamentals and power, and that Quarantillo's wrestling is not good enough to control Swanson, who is active off his back. Zane believes Quarantillo's style is falling apart.

Swanson opened at +137, now +136; Quarantillo opened at -153, now -152
"I'm going to take Cub. I just don't think Quarantillo is a good enough wrestler for me to pick him to out grapple Cub."
LOSS vs Andre Fili
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 62 of 111 55% 90 of 140 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
Cub Swanson 0 67 of 147 45% 70 of 151 2 of 11 18% 0 0 3:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 20 of 31 64% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Cub Swanson 0 18 of 42 42% 19 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Andre Fili 0 12 of 29 41% 22 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
Cub Swanson 0 18 of 35 51% 18 of 35 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:27
3 Andre Fili 0 30 of 51 58% 48 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Cub Swanson 0 31 of 70 44% 33 of 73 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 62 of 111 55% 43 of 86 7 of 11 12 of 14 53 of 101 9 of 10 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 67 of 147 45% 49 of 118 13 of 22 5 of 7 52 of 126 15 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 20 of 31 64% 9 of 18 3 of 4 8 of 9 18 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 18 of 42 42% 12 of 31 4 of 8 2 of 3 13 of 36 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Andre Fili 12 of 29 41% 11 of 27 0 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 18 of 35 51% 14 of 29 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 29 3 of 6 0 of 0
3 Andre Fili 30 of 51 58% 23 of 41 4 of 6 3 of 4 24 of 44 6 of 7 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 31 of 70 44% 23 of 58 5 of 8 3 of 4 24 of 61 7 of 9 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Cody picks Fili but is not confident due to his recent knockout losses. He notes that Fili is younger and faster, but his chin is questionable. Cody believes Fili's volume and wrestling could give him an edge, but acknowledges that Swanson is a fan favorite who often gets close decisions. He warns that Fili needs to finish Swanson to avoid a controversial decision loss.

"I think Fili because he's younger, a little faster... I still side with him here but the line is again..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel is picking Swanson as a plus 210 underdog, citing Swanson's path to victory via knockout and his strong performance against Hakim Dawodu at similar odds. He notes that Fili is hot and cold and can be chinned. He envisions a retirement moment for Swanson where he knocks out Fili and puts his gloves down in the Octagon.

wins by KO
"I'm gonna go Cub Swanson here to have like a Robbie Lawler vs Nico Price type retirement moment where he goes out there knocks out Fely puts his gloves down."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The host picks Fili to win on the scorecards, but criticizes the -260 line as too high, saying Fili should be closer to -150 or -180. He expects a competitive striking battle that goes to decision, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds at -110. He notes Swanson is a live underdog at +210.

over 2.5 rounds at -110
"I will pick him to win this fight though... I think it's ultimately uh phy who ends wins this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Swanson, citing his experience and durability. He notes that Swanson has a history of winning close decisions and that Fili has been knocked out recently. Paul believes Swanson's volume and toughness will be key, and that he can win a decision or even catch Fili with a knockout. He also mentions that Swanson is a fan favorite, which may help in a close fight.

"I think it's a pretty clear dogger pass, Cub Swanson for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The Guru picks Andre Fili over Cub Swanson. He believes Fili is bigger, stronger, and more explosive at this stage. He notes Swanson's age (40) and size disadvantage. He likes Fili's low kicks and thinks he can finish Swanson by TKO.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Andre Philly... TKO"
WIN vs Hakeem Dawodu
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 0 77 of 156 49% 107 of 195 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:25
Hakeem Dawodu 0 95 of 176 53% 129 of 224 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 0 23 of 42 54% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Hakeem Dawodu 0 29 of 56 51% 29 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cub Swanson 0 28 of 51 54% 52 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Hakeem Dawodu 0 29 of 55 52% 48 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
3 Cub Swanson 0 26 of 63 41% 32 of 74 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:21
Hakeem Dawodu 0 37 of 65 56% 52 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 77 of 156 49% 41 of 112 27 of 31 9 of 13 59 of 135 18 of 21 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 95 of 176 53% 41 of 104 29 of 37 25 of 35 79 of 158 16 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 23 of 42 54% 11 of 25 8 of 10 4 of 7 23 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 29 of 56 51% 9 of 28 8 of 9 12 of 19 29 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cub Swanson 28 of 51 54% 19 of 42 8 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 39 10 of 12 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 29 of 55 52% 13 of 33 10 of 13 6 of 9 20 of 44 9 of 11 0 of 0
3 Cub Swanson 26 of 63 41% 11 of 45 11 of 13 4 of 5 18 of 54 8 of 9 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 37 of 65 56% 19 of 43 11 of 15 7 of 7 30 of 58 7 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Angelo picks Dawodu based on age and speed, noting Swanson looked old in his last fight. He acknowledges Swanson could win via takedowns and decision, but leans Dawodu.

"dawood is going to be the pick here but that is based purely on age and speed"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Big Brady picks Hakeem Dawodu to knock out Cub Swanson in the second round. He notes Swanson's age (39) and recent durability issues, especially in the Jonathan Martinez fight where he was hurt to the head, body, and legs. He believes Dawodu's mixing of strikes will wear down Swanson and lead to a finish. He expects this to be Swanson's retirement fight.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take Akeem to knock out Swanson here um probably second round I think it's going to be attritional"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody is torn on this fight. He notes Cub Swanson is nearing 40 and coming off a brutal loss to Jonathan Martinez, but also has a history of pulling off upsets. He criticizes Hakeem Dawodu's low output and lack of finishing ability, but acknowledges Cub's age and damage. He ultimately decides to pass on betting, saying he has other underdogs he prefers.

"I don't know if I'm gonna get there I'm taking some other underdogs on the car I'm not supposed to send it here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

James picks Dawodu, believing Swanson is past his prime. He thinks Dawodu is the better striker now with better durability, though he notes Dawodu's chin is questionable. James sees little path for Swanson to win, as he doesn't think Swanson can grapple or out-strike Dawodu. He mentions Swanson could land a knockout due to his unorthodox style, but overall favors Dawodu clearly.

"I think Swanson's past it... I think Dawodu is the clear side in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Dawodu is a technical striker who uses combination striking and kicks. Swanson is 40 and on a 3-6 run over his last nine, with wins over sketchy competition. Dawodu should land the more impactful strikes and get the nod from judges. However, Swanson's unorthodox style could make it closer than the odds suggest.

"I still feel like dawado should be able to do what he needs to do to get his hand raised I just want none of that chalky price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Cub Swanson but with low confidence. He thinks the line is accurate and would prefer Dawodu at a better price. He sees Cub having a puncher's chance and notes that if Dawodu fights at his usual low volume, Cub could outwork him and eke out a decision. However, he admits he's not confident and has other underdogs he'd rather bet.

"I suppose I will select Cub for the purposes of this show but I have other underdogs that I'm wasting money on this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu over Cub Swanson, citing Swanson's accumulated damage and small size for featherweight. He notes Dawodu's strength and clinch work, predicting he will hurt Swanson to the body with knees and get a finish in the third round. He references Swanson's past body-shot losses to Tatsuya Kawajiri and Max Holloway.

Finish in the third round by knees to the body
"I'm gonna go Hakeem dawa do over Cub Swanson"
TKO (leg kick) R2 4:19 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 51 of 79 64% 60 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Cub Swanson 2 62 of 102 60% 66 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 31 of 50 62% 38 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Cub Swanson 1 33 of 59 55% 35 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:16
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 20 of 29 68% 22 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cub Swanson 1 29 of 43 67% 31 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 51 of 79 64% 10 of 35 9 of 10 32 of 34 48 of 73 3 of 5 0 of 1
Cub Swanson 62 of 102 60% 40 of 77 15 of 18 7 of 7 37 of 64 12 of 14 13 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 31 of 50 62% 5 of 23 5 of 6 21 of 21 29 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 1
Cub Swanson 33 of 59 55% 21 of 45 10 of 12 2 of 2 21 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 14
2 Jonathan Martinez 20 of 29 68% 5 of 12 4 of 4 11 of 13 19 of 26 1 of 3 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 29 of 43 67% 19 of 32 5 of 6 5 of 5 16 of 25 7 of 8 6 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Angelo leans Cub Swanson, citing his experience, fight IQ, and still-solid chin. He notes that Jonathan Martinez has holes in his game, particularly handling pressure, and that Cub can exploit that in a technical kickboxing match. However, he is not highly confident and calls it a tough pick, acknowledging Martinez's power and recent wins.

"I think I'm gonna have to lean Cub because of his experience his level of competition this is not the most confident pick in the world"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson for the upset by first-round knockout. He notes that Swanson has looked phenomenal lately, has power and volume, while Martinez has a questionable chin (knocked down multiple times). He thinks Swanson's pressure and hard shots will be too much, but says he'll check the weigh-ins to see if Swanson looks drained from the weight cut. He calls it a super close fight.

Swanson wins by knockout, first round
"I'm actually gonna go with a cub Swanson for the upset here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody leans Martinez for the pick but is more confident in the under 2.5 rounds at +130. He notes Cub Swanson still fights with hands down and chin up, and while he has power, Martinez is faster and more technical. He expects violence in a small cage and thinks the fight ends early.

under 2.5 rounds +130
"I'll lean to him but I think round one could be very very dicey... I'm betting on violence here small cage under two and a half rounds plus 130 sign me up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Connor picks Martinez, citing the age and weight cut concerns for Swanson. He notes that Martinez's range kicking game could cause problems for Swanson, and that Swanson's tendency to struggle against range strikers is a factor. He admits it's a coin flip but goes with the younger, established bantamweight.

"I'll go with Jonathan Martinez, just to be on the opposite side of you on this one. I just don't trust the Bantam weight move for cub."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Swanson is a live underdog at +165 due to his unorthodox striking and power, which could expose Martinez's chin. Martinez is a good striker with kicks and combinations, but he has shown he can be hurt. Swanson's experience and ability to crack opponents make this competitive. However, the weight cut to 135 pounds is a concern; the host wants to see how Swanson looks at weigh-ins before committing. Prediction is Swanson by knockout.

Swanson by knockout
"I'm gonna go Cub Swanson Swanson by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul is tempted by Cub Swanson as a live underdog, especially since the fight is at bantamweight, a new weight class for Swanson. He questions Martinez's chin and weight cut issues, noting Martinez has been dropped before and struggled at 135. He thinks Swanson's power and pace could break Martinez if it becomes a scrap.

Cub Swanson inside the distance
"I think I'm leaning slight dog here at Cub Swanson right now you know what I didn't know that this was that bantamweight I that makes me like it even more."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez over his favorite fighter Cub Swanson, citing momentum and Martinez's age (28) as key factors. He notes that Swanson is moving down to bantamweight, which often leads to poor performances initially. He praises Martinez's leg kicks and slick striking, and predicts a body finish due to Swanson's weaker torso at the new weight.

prediction: finish to the body
"I'm gonna go with Jonathan Martinez over Cub Swanson and it hurts me to say it because Cub Swanson's my favorite fighter"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson, reasoning that if he would pick Swanson at featherweight, he has to still pick him at bantamweight despite the weight cut concerns. He believes Swanson's aggression and ability to punish Martinez's poor defense on the back foot will be key. He acknowledges the risk but trusts Swanson's veteran savvy.

"If I would pick it to happen at one 45 and I know so little about how cub handles a weight cut... then I have to still pick the guy I would pick at featherweight."
WIN vs Darren Elkins
TKO (spinning wheel kick and punches) R1 2:12 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 1 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Darren Elkins 0 2 of 19 10% 5 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 1 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Darren Elkins 0 2 of 19 10% 5 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 18 of 30 60% 16 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 4
Darren Elkins 2 of 19 10% 2 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 18 of 30 60% 16 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 4
Darren Elkins 2 of 19 10% 2 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Angelo picks Darren Elkins, citing the constant threat of takedowns and grinding pressure. He believes Elkins can make the fight ugly and frustrate Swanson, who is the better all-around fighter but needs to keep it standing. Angelo notes that Elkins has power in his hands but his clear path is grappling. He placed a moneyline bet on Elkins because the odds were too good at +170, thinking it should be closer to a pick'em.

moneyline bet at +170
"i do have a money line bet on darren elkins and that's mostly because the odds were so good i mean plus 170 is crazy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson by decision, citing his striking advantage (higher volume, accuracy, defense) and improved takedown defense in recent fights. He notes Elkins' low striking accuracy and believes Swanson can keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Elkins' grappling but thinks Swanson's takedown defense has improved enough to avoid trouble.

decision
"give me swanson to win give me swanson to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody picks Swanson but doesn't like the -200 price. He thinks Swanson's superior footwork and striking technique will allow him to box up Elkins on the feet. He notes that Elkins needs takedowns to win, and Swanson's takedown defense (60% career) might be enough. Cody suggests taking Swanson by decision at +150 instead of the moneyline, as he believes Swanson is unlikely to finish Elkins.

Swanson by decision +150
"I will take cup swanson he's the official pick I don't like that price tag"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel Levi picks Cub Swanson but admits he is sketched out by Elkins's comeback ability. He believes Swanson will dominate the striking early, using his speed, kicks, and explosiveness. However, Levi worries that if Elkins gets top position or takes Swanson's back, he could submit him. He references Jeremy Stephens's blueprint of keeping the fight standing and busting Elkins up, which Swanson can follow. Levi expects Swanson to win a decision, possibly 30-27, but acknowledges the risk of Elkins pulling off a submission.

Swanson by decision; fight doesn't go to decision (if Elkins submits)
"I am going to pick Cub to win but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't sketched out if Elkins got on top of him."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Jacob picks Cub Swanson, his favorite fighter, and is very confident. He argues that Swanson is the better all-around fighter and equally tough. Jacob believes Swanson will dominate the fight, noting that Swanson looked great in his last win and that Elkins' wins come from out-toughing opponents, but nobody out-toughs Swanson. He thinks the odds are fair and that Swanson will win.

"cub swanson is going to dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Cub Swanson

The host picks Swanson by KO, citing the striking disparity and Elkins' declining reactions. He believes Swanson will tee off on Elkins and finish him. He likes the KO prop at +250 and also parlayed Swanson moneyline with Barcelos.

Swanson by KO (+250); parlay Swanson + Barcelos (-102)
"I like cub swanson by ko i think that's very live in this situation"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul is leaning towards Elkins as a dog, citing Elkins's incredible durability and never-quit attitude. He thinks Swanson may start fast but could fade, and Elkins's pressure and wrestling could take over. Paul plans to bet Elkins live if Swanson slows down, expecting a better number than +170. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation pre-fight.

"I'm going to actually have to watch the fight and I'm going to try to bet it live because I know that swanston doesn't have cardio issues but darren is just he's a guy that has made me a bunch …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson to win by 29-28 decision. He notes Swanson has improved his grappling defense significantly, as shown in the second Edgar fight where he wasn't taken down. He thinks Swanson's stand-up advantage will be key and he won't gas out like other Elkins opponents. He expects a scrappy war but Swanson's veteran savvy will carry him.

"i'm going with cub swanson here over darren elkins"
LOSS vs Giga Chikadze
TKO (body kick and punches) R1 1:03 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka · May 01, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Giga Chikadze 1 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Cub Swanson 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Giga Chikadze 1 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Cub Swanson 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Giga Chikadze 12 of 18 66% 9 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 7
Cub Swanson 4 of 6 66% 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Giga Chikadze 12 of 18 66% 9 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 7
Cub Swanson 4 of 6 66% 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Giga Chikadze vs. Cub Swanson

Round 1
Our co-main event comes in the form of a striker’s delight at featherweight between the old guard of Swanson (27-11, 12-7 UFC) against the relatively young gun in Chikadze (12-2, 5-0 UFC). Whether this is a passing of the torch or a reminder that there is still something left in the tank, referee Jason Herzog will oversee the affair. There is no touch of gloves, as Chikadze begins his fight with a few kicks. Swanson looks to close the distance early, and he walks through a few kicks to reach out with a big overhand right. The Georgia circles away on the outside, and he gets off a right hand that makes Swanson take a few steps back.
The kickboxer slings a high kick and sneaks out a left hand, and he releases a thunderous body kick he titles his “Giga Kick” that slams square into Swanson’s liver. The longtime vet’s typically stoic expression contorts in pain as he backs away and falls to his knees. Swanson looks to reach out for any sort of desperation shot or leg grab, but Chikadze slips his leg out and starts pounding away.
It does not take more than a few punches for Herzog to call the fight off, and Georgian fighters have now stolen the night by winning across the board. This is our first official finish of the night – the Markos fight was a disqualification that ended by a foul – and the first time Swanson has been knocked out since Jose Aldo’s fateful double flying knee in 2009.

The Official Result
Giga Chikadze def. Cub Swanson R1 1:03 via TKO (Body Kick and Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Big Brady picks Giga Chikadze to win a close decision, but he is hesitant and hates the line. He acknowledges Chikadze's improvements, especially in takedown defense and striking output, as seen in the Morales fight. However, he notes that Swanson is durable and on a roll, and that Chikadze has been taken down in the past. Brady thinks the line should be closer and that Swanson could be live if he wrestles more, but he ultimately goes with Chikadze's flashier strikes.

"i'm going to take ciacatse to win by a close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody sees Cub Swanson as a live underdog with many variables in his favor: savvy veteran experience, ground game advantage, and a history of performing well as an underdog. He notes that Swanson has a BJJ black belt and wrestling advantage, and that Giga has not faced a grappler who actually uses their ground game. However, he is concerned that Giga is tall for the division and a tricky striker, and that Swanson needs to use his wrestling to win. He labels this a 'dogger pass' situation and mentions DraftKings still has +160 available.

dogger pass (betting recommendation)
"for our last show in the studio i'll label this one a dogger pass dogger pass situation"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Daniel Levi picks Giga Chikadze to win, emphasizing that Chikadze is a superior striker with better range and footwork. He believes Cub Swanson's style of swinging big hooks plays into Chikadze's straight shots down the middle. Levi also notes that Swanson's recent win over Pineda is overrated and that Chikadze's cardio held up in his last fight.

"i'm gonna go with giga to land the harder shots the more impactful shots and i think he's gonna announce himself as a contender at 145 pounds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Giga Chikadze

The host picks Giga Chikadze by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He expects Giga to fight safe and outpoint Swanson, who may look for takedowns. He notes that Swanson is a veteran but believes Giga's kicking game will be too much.

Giga Chikadze by decision at +170
"I like giga here it's crazy that the line is continuing to move towards the cub swanson side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Paul does not have a strong lean on this fight. He notes that Giga has been given favorable matchups and that Swanson has the ground game advantage, but he is not confident enough to make a pick. He mentions that the action is coming in on Swanson and that he can understand why, but he doesn't commit to a side.

"yeah not a great lean either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

The MMA Guru picks Giga Chikadze over Cub Swanson, citing Chikadze's size advantage, reach, and improving MMA skills. He notes that Swanson is a natural bantamweight and took damage in his last fight against Daniel Pineda. He predicts Chikadze will chop at Swanson's legs and jab his way to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"i'm gonna pick giga chickety to shop at those legs land good shots and just have cubs cub swanson limping around for the entire fight"
WIN vs Daniel Pineda
KO (punches) R2 1:52 · UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Dec 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 2 46 of 66 69% 51 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
Daniel Pineda 0 21 of 45 46% 40 of 65 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 1 31 of 47 65% 34 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:31
Daniel Pineda 0 16 of 30 53% 35 of 50 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:08
2 Cub Swanson 1 15 of 19 78% 17 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Daniel Pineda 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 46 of 66 69% 35 of 51 7 of 11 4 of 4 37 of 54 3 of 3 6 of 9
Daniel Pineda 21 of 45 46% 9 of 28 3 of 4 9 of 13 19 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 31 of 47 65% 23 of 36 4 of 7 4 of 4 23 of 36 3 of 3 5 of 8
Daniel Pineda 16 of 30 53% 6 of 17 2 of 3 8 of 10 14 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Cub Swanson 15 of 19 78% 12 of 15 3 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Daniel Pineda 5 of 15 33% 3 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 3 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Big Brady picks Daniel Pineda to win by first-round submission. He highlights Pineda's 100% finish rate (27 wins all finishes) and Swanson's history of being submitted six times. He likes Pineda's recent form and believes he is in his prime, while Swanson is past his prime and coming off injury. He recommends betting Pineda inside the distance at +140.

Pineda inside the distance +140
"i'm going to take pineda to win by first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Daniel is impressed with Pineda's resurgence, noting his 29 finishes and recent dominant performances. He questions Cub Swanson's level of competition and thinks Swanson is on his way out. He predicts Pineda will catch Cub with a submission, possibly his 20th submission win.

submission win
"imma go with pineda to get his 20th submission win i think he catches cub somewhere along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Pineda's wrestling and top pressure will be a nightmare for Swanson, who has struggled with grapplers. Pineda should be able to take Swanson down repeatedly and finish him via ground and pound or submission. Swanson's recent losses have come via submission, and Pineda's style matches up well. The under 2.5 rounds is a good prop.

Under 2.5 rounds; Pineda inside the distance, likely second round
"i'm taking pineda via finnish probably second round... i truly think that he'll be able to get swanson down time and time again and get that damage in"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson, despite the long layoff due to injury. He believes Swanson's experience against good jiu-jitsu guys and his stand-up will be the difference. He expects Swanson to keep the fight standing and win a unanimous decision. He dismisses Daniel Pineda's wins as unimpressive and notes Pineda's past PED issues.

"i'm gonna go with cub swanson getting the job done against daniel pineda i like daniel pineda but i think people are just looking at his herbert burns win"