UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · May 04, 2019 · Bantamweight · Completed
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Age 35
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 5' 6"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Merab Dvalishvili
4.42 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
2.8 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
5.97 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Brad Katona
4.81 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
4.75 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
1.86 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Merab Dvalishvili - Fight History
LOSS vs Petr Yan
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 134 of 383 34% 196 of 458 2 of 29 6% 2 1 5:12
Petr Yan 0 139 of 230 60% 159 of 251 5 of 9 55% 0 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 22 of 68 32% 40 of 87 0 of 8 0% 0 0 1:33
Petr Yan 0 17 of 32 53% 23 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 19 of 73 26% 41 of 97 0 of 5 0% 0 1 2:06
Petr Yan 0 21 of 34 61% 25 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 62 33% 32 of 77 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:07
Petr Yan 0 25 of 46 54% 33 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:19
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 37 of 71 52% 43 of 80 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:15
Petr Yan 0 38 of 55 69% 40 of 57 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:14
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 35 of 109 32% 40 of 117 0 of 5 0% 1 0 0:11
Petr Yan 0 38 of 63 60% 38 of 63 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 134 of 383 34% 105 of 341 22 of 34 7 of 8 116 of 353 18 of 30 0 of 0
Petr Yan 139 of 230 60% 109 of 195 17 of 19 13 of 16 119 of 204 18 of 24 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 22 of 68 32% 16 of 60 4 of 6 2 of 2 18 of 63 4 of 5 0 of 0
Petr Yan 17 of 32 53% 15 of 30 1 of 1 1 of 1 17 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 19 of 73 26% 19 of 71 0 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 69 2 of 4 0 of 0
Petr Yan 21 of 34 61% 18 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2 21 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 62 33% 18 of 57 3 of 5 0 of 0 15 of 52 6 of 10 0 of 0
Petr Yan 25 of 46 54% 20 of 40 5 of 6 0 of 0 16 of 34 7 of 10 2 of 2
4 Merab Dvalishvili 37 of 71 52% 28 of 60 7 of 8 2 of 3 34 of 67 3 of 4 0 of 0
Petr Yan 38 of 55 69% 28 of 44 6 of 6 4 of 5 32 of 48 6 of 7 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 35 of 109 32% 24 of 93 8 of 13 3 of 3 32 of 102 3 of 7 0 of 0
Petr Yan 38 of 63 60% 28 of 50 4 of 5 6 of 8 33 of 57 5 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his insane pace, cardio, and improvement since the first fight. He questions what has changed for Petr Yan to win the rematch, noting that Merab dominated the first fight with 11 takedowns. He believes Merab's pressure and takedowns will be too much for Yan again, and he is surprised the odds are only -450.

"I'm on the Morab side. I think the insane pressure, the insane cardio, all the things that have him nicknamed the machine have him win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili, noting his dominant performance in the first fight. He acknowledges Yan may have been compromised but still favors Dvalishvili's wrestling and pace. He expects Dvalishvili to win by decision, as he always does.

Dvalishvili by decision
"I'm going to take Morad Deval Philly to win this fight how he always wins fights and that is going to be by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Cody is fully behind Merab, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He notes that Merab took Yan down 11 times in their first fight and has since dominated Olympic gold medalist Cejudo and Umar. He believes Merab will again win by decision, as Yan is durable and hard to finish. He mentions the decision prop at minus 300 but prefers the money line.

"Morab does what Morab does. And frankly, this is like such a lame kind of breakdown, I suppose, from me, but it's like until I'm going to just keep putting money on Morab."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Connor argues that Merab has only improved since their first fight, becoming a more purposeful striker who uses takedown threats effectively. He notes that Petr Yan has lost the aggressive instinct that once allowed him to change fights with single shots, and now fights more cautiously, which plays into Merab's relentless pace. Connor believes Yan's multi-stage game can be disrupted by Merab's constant pressure, making it hard for Yan to build initiative. He concludes that while Yan has the power to win, it's a lot to gamble on.

Odds: Merab opened -260, now -415; Yan opened +220, now +315. Notes that Yan hasn't stopped anyone in 5 years and hasn't scored a knockdown since the Sandhagen fight.
"You have to pick Merab. High-level fight. Meaningful."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel believes Merab's relentless pace and takedown volume will overwhelm Petr Yan, who tends to take rounds off to make reads. He notes Merab's improvements since their first fight, including 20 takedowns against Cory Sandhagen. Daniel doubts Yan can bridge the output gap and sees Merab as the clear best bantamweight. He mentions the fight is a pass for betting due to poor odds on Merab.

"I'm picking Morab in this spot, man. I really am."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Lucrative James acknowledges Merab's dominance but believes the betting line of -450 is too wide. He notes Petr Yan was likely injured in the first fight and has had time to recover. He thinks Yan can compete in minutes and moments, potentially squeaking out a decision win. He emphasizes value betting and picks Yan at +350 odds.

"I'm going to go out and say that Peter Yan is the betting pick for this show for me for this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The host notes that Dvalishvili won the first fight easily as a +250 underdog and is now a -450 favorite for good reason. He expects Yan to be more aggressive but believes Dvalishvili's pace, pressure, and activity will make it hard for Yan to land impactful shots, leading to a decision win for Dvalishvili.

win by decision; odds comment: plus 250 underdog first fight, now minus 450 favorite
"Jan might be a little bit more aggressive this time around but I think Dvalish Philly will make it hard for Yan to land an impactful enough shot... win this fight on the scorecards and still bantamweight champion."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Merab's wrestling and decision victory. He points out that Yan has lost rounds to lesser fighters like Song Dong and Marcus McGhee, while Merab has only improved. He notes that Yan is a slow starter and Merab's pressure negates his striking combinations. He concludes that Merab by decision is the play.

"He got 50-45 to cross the board on all three judges scorecards. On top of that, he got taken down 11 times."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili over Petr Yan, despite the wide odds. He notes Merab's relentless takedown volume and cardio will overwhelm Yan, though Yan will have moments. The Guru predicts a 48-47 decision for Merab.

"I've got Morab 48 47, man."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Merab's style heavily favors him. He points out that Yan's game relies on building initiative through counter-punching and then pressuring, but Merab never allows that foothold. Zane notes that even when Yan defends takedowns well, Merab's constant attacks prevent Yan from establishing his own offense. He highlights that Yan's last three fights show a loss of confidence and aggression, making it unlikely he can replicate the moments of violence that defined his prime.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"It's really hard to see a version of this where Merab just doesn't get..."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 114 of 265 43% 243 of 399 20 of 37 54% 0 0 10:02
Cory Sandhagen 0 80 of 184 43% 149 of 257 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 46 23% 32 of 67 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:52
Cory Sandhagen 0 27 of 53 50% 58 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 33 of 49 67% 73 of 92 8 of 13 61% 0 0 3:43
Cory Sandhagen 0 2 of 9 22% 23 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 15 of 48 31% 46 of 80 3 of 8 37% 0 0 1:57
Cory Sandhagen 0 14 of 35 40% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 56 37% 31 of 66 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:26
Cory Sandhagen 0 19 of 43 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 34 of 66 51% 61 of 94 6 of 8 75% 0 0 2:04
Cory Sandhagen 0 18 of 44 40% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 114 of 265 43% 86 of 231 13 of 18 15 of 16 79 of 220 22 of 27 13 of 18
Cory Sandhagen 80 of 184 43% 46 of 143 18 of 23 16 of 18 80 of 184 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 46 23% 9 of 42 0 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 27 of 53 50% 14 of 39 4 of 4 9 of 10 27 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 33 of 49 67% 33 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0 16 of 25 8 of 10 9 of 14
Cory Sandhagen 2 of 9 22% 1 of 6 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 15 of 48 31% 12 of 44 1 of 2 2 of 2 13 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 14 of 35 40% 7 of 28 4 of 4 3 of 3 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 56 37% 9 of 42 5 of 6 7 of 8 17 of 52 4 of 4 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 19 of 43 44% 12 of 34 4 of 5 3 of 4 19 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 34 of 66 51% 23 of 54 7 of 8 4 of 4 23 of 53 7 of 9 4 of 4
Cory Sandhagen 18 of 44 40% 12 of 36 6 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, acknowledging that Cory Sandhagen is a tough matchup with good skills everywhere. He believes Merab's non-stop chain wrestling and cardio are his biggest weapons, and that Sandhagen is better than Sean O'Malley but still likely to lose. He notes that Sandhagen's cardio slowed against Umar, and that Merab's pressure will be overwhelming.

"Morab's going to be the pick, but I'm not dismissing Cory Sanhagen's ability to make this an ugly fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady thinks the fight will be competitive but clear in favor of Dvalishvili. He notes that Sandhagen has advantages in height, reach, and striking, but Dvalishvili's wrestling and ability to dictate where the fight takes place will be key. He expects Dvalishvili to win by decision, possibly 49-46 or 48-47. He does not like the line but is not picking against Dvalishvili.

Merab Dvalishvili by decision.
"I like Morav to get it done. I just I just really don't like the line. But give me Rob by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Connor picks Dvalishvili, agreeing with Zane that Sandhagen's physicality is a major concern. He highlights that Sandhagen's best path is to pressure Merab and keep him on the back foot, but even then, Merab's wrestling and durability make it hard to win a decision. Connor also notes that Sandhagen lacks finishing power at the highest level, making it unlikely he stops Merab.

"Yeah, you really do. So yeah, I'm glad they made this fight. I don't think it'll be boring, but I just do not at my core believe that Corey Sandhagen can go out there and fight a busy fight without …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Merab Dvalishvili

The host expects a classic Dvalishvili performance with takedowns and control time, possibly threatening submissions, but Sandhagen will be too slippery to catch, leading to a decision win for Dvalishvili.

"I think we'll see a classic Dvalishvili performance here where he will get his takedowns, he'll get his control time... I think Sandhagen will be too slimy to catch in anything of substance and that will lead to Dvalishvili winning …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his relentless pace, takedowns, and improving striking. He notes Cory Sandhagen's lack of finishing ability and tendency to leave fights close. He predicts a 49-46 or 48-47 decision.

"I'm going with Merab. Sandhagen's good. I think he'll do better than O'Malley in the rematch. We're looking at a decision here. 48-47, 49-46 Merab."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Zane picks Dvalishvili because he believes Sandhagen lacks the physicality to consistently win scrambles and wrestling exchanges against Merab. He notes that Sandhagen has struggled against elite wrestlers like Umar Nurmagomedov and that Merab's endless cardio and improved striking make him a nightmare matchup. Zane also points out that even if Sandhagen has a good round or two, he is unlikely to finish Merab and will likely be worn down over five rounds.

"I just cannot fundamentally believe that Corey Sandhagen has the physicality at a very raw base level to tie up with Marabh Dvala Shavili all the time."
WIN vs Sean O'Malley
Submission R3 4:42 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 52 of 115 45% 141 of 215 5 of 12 41% 1 0 6:29
Sean O'Malley 0 31 of 57 54% 38 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 17 of 37 45% 48 of 72 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:54
Sean O'Malley 0 12 of 23 52% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 23 of 63 36% 24 of 64 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:17
Sean O'Malley 0 19 of 33 57% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 12 of 15 80% 69 of 79 3 of 4 75% 1 0 4:18
Sean O'Malley 0 0 of 1 0% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 52 of 115 45% 33 of 92 13 of 14 6 of 9 29 of 86 8 of 10 15 of 19
Sean O'Malley 31 of 57 54% 14 of 35 15 of 19 2 of 3 30 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 17 of 37 45% 10 of 30 7 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 27 3 of 3 5 of 7
Sean O'Malley 12 of 23 52% 5 of 15 6 of 7 1 of 1 11 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 23 of 63 36% 18 of 54 1 of 2 4 of 7 20 of 58 3 of 5 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 19 of 33 57% 9 of 19 9 of 12 1 of 2 19 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 12 of 15 80% 5 of 8 5 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 12
Sean O'Malley 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo believes the first fight was a clear win for Merab, not close as some recall. He thinks Sean's camp is already making excuses by calling Merab the GOAT. He sees no significant improvements from Sean and expects the same pressure wrestling and cardio to overwhelm Sean again. He dismisses concerns about Merab's toe injury as irrelevant.

Odds at 3 to 1 feel like a gift.
"Morav Dishley is going to be the pick. I'm not worried about the toe nonsense."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili but is very hesitant. He believes Merab should win easily based on his wrestling, but worries about corrupt judges giving rounds to O'Malley if the fight is close. He notes that O'Malley was compromised in the first fight and that the UFC wants O'Malley to win. He ultimately goes with his gut that Merab gets it done by decision, but hates the price tag and suggests O'Malley plus 5.5 might be a good look.

O'Malley +5.5 mentioned as a good look
"I'll take Morab to win this fight by decision because I think he wins the fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Merab. He emphasizes that O'Malley's instinctual reactions in wrestling are a deep-seated issue that will be hard to overcome. Connor notes that O'Malley's go-to defense of giving up his back and handfighting works against lesser wrestlers but is suicide against Merab. He thinks O'Malley can improve but still loses.

Odds: Merab -254, O'Malley +234. Connor is surprised the line is not wider.
"I got to pick Marab still."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili's high pressure, high pace, and insane cardio are too much for most opponents. Even if O'Malley learned from their first matchup, he won't be able to set up his traps or striking wizardry. Dvalishvili will control the fight, grind it out, and win on the scorecards to remain champion.

"Dvalesh Philly is just too much for a lot of his opponents and not many guys are able to deal with this high pressure high pace and just insane cardio style... allowing Dvalis Philly to control fights as he always …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley to win by TKO or decision, citing adjustments and O'Malley's freshness. He believes the first fight was close and O'Malley can improve his takedown defense. He notes Merab's activity and lack of motivation, and thinks O'Malley's striking will be the difference. He predicts O'Malley wins rounds 1, 3, and 5, and possibly gets a TKO in the second or third round. He also mentions potential judging favoritism for O'Malley.

Odds comment: +260 is great value. Finish prediction: TKO in second or third round, or decision win.
"I'm feeling a Shaun Ali upset TKO finish over Morab Dealin."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Zane picks Merab Dvalishvili, noting that O'Malley's wrestling defense is fundamentally flawed against Merab's relentless pressure. He believes O'Malley will be better prepared but still expects Merab to force him into a defensive shell and win via pace and takedowns. Zane references the Umar fight as evidence that Merab can be pushed but still wins.

Odds: Merab -254, O'Malley +234. Zane is surprised the line is not wider, expecting Merab around -400.
"I got to pick Marab still."
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 111 of 259 42% 142 of 293 7 of 30 23% 0 0 2:22
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 104 of 237 43% 113 of 246 2 of 15 13% 0 0 1:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 20 of 47 42% 21 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 49 36% 18 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 20 of 49 40% 27 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:15
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 25 of 47 53% 26 of 48 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:48
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 54 38% 25 of 58 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:07
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 22 of 48 45% 25 of 51 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:43
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 36 of 70 51% 48 of 82 4 of 9 44% 0 0 1:05
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 21 of 47 44% 26 of 52 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:04
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 14 of 39 35% 21 of 47 2 of 12 16% 0 0 0:53
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 111 of 259 42% 71 of 207 30 of 37 10 of 15 88 of 219 22 of 37 1 of 3
Umar Nurmagomedov 104 of 237 43% 76 of 199 22 of 30 6 of 8 92 of 219 12 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 20 of 47 42% 10 of 35 6 of 6 4 of 6 13 of 39 7 of 8 0 of 0
Umar Nurmagomedov 18 of 49 36% 11 of 38 7 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 20 of 49 40% 12 of 37 7 of 10 1 of 2 15 of 38 5 of 10 0 of 1
Umar Nurmagomedov 25 of 47 53% 18 of 38 6 of 8 1 of 1 17 of 37 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 54 38% 14 of 43 5 of 7 2 of 4 17 of 49 3 of 4 1 of 1
Umar Nurmagomedov 22 of 48 45% 17 of 40 2 of 3 3 of 5 20 of 43 2 of 5 0 of 0
4 Merab Dvalishvili 36 of 70 51% 25 of 57 10 of 12 1 of 1 31 of 58 5 of 11 0 of 1
Umar Nurmagomedov 21 of 47 44% 18 of 44 2 of 2 1 of 1 21 of 46 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 14 of 39 35% 10 of 35 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 35 2 of 4 0 of 0
Umar Nurmagomedov 18 of 46 39% 12 of 39 5 of 6 1 of 1 18 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, citing his superior wrestling and striking compared to Merab Dvalishvili. He believes Umar's kicks and range management will keep Merab at bay, and his scramble skills will neutralize Merab's takedown attempts. He notes that Merab's cardio is a factor but thinks Umar's overall skills will win out.

"Umar is going to be the pick I will kind of warn you here minus 325 I mean it's a bit disrespectful to morab"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov but is hesitant due to the price. He believes Umar has the style to beat Merab, with superior wrestling and striking, and can thwart takedowns. However, he notes Merab's incredible pace and durability, and that Umar's line is too high. Cody also points out that Merab has been taken down before and struggles off his back, but Umar's lack of top competition and the value on Merab give him pause.

Mentions he took Merab at +175 earlier and is surprised at the line movement. No specific prop bet.
"I think it's a little bit too much too much Steam on the the Naga mov side here the dogger pass situation for me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Connor picks Umar Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his excellent boxing, jab, and ability to maintain range. He notes that Umar has faced similar pressure fighters before (like Cody Stamann and Raoni Barcelos) and shut them down with his positional striking. Connor warns that Merab's unique cardio and pace make him dangerous, but Umar's technical striking and takedown defense should allow him to win rounds. He also points out that Umar cannot afford to make the same mistakes he made against Cory Sandhagen, where he took risky scrambles. Connor believes Umar's game plan of using the jab and staying at range is the key to beating Merab.

Odds opened at -246, now -338; Merab opened +211, now +280. Connor thinks the line is too wide in Umar's favor.
"I'm picking Umar Nurmagomedov off here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel picks Umar but is hesitant, acknowledging Merab's proven ability to make great fighters look human. He notes Umar's striking edge and length, and believes the grappling will neutralize itself. However, he is concerned about Merab's pace and toughness, and mentions that Merab has been hurt on the feet before. Daniel ultimately goes with Umar to become the new champion but says he is not betting on the fight.

Daniel says he is not betting on this fight, calling it a pass. He mentions that Umar is favored at -350 and Merab at +275.
"I'm actually going to go with Umar to be the new UFC bantamweight champion but from a betting perspective I can understand why someone would call this a doger pass situation"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov to become champion, citing his long-held belief in Umar's potential and his superior striking, range control, and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Merab's legendary cardio and pressure as major threats, but questions whether Merab can impose his physicality and wrestling on Umar, who is a strong wrestler himself. James notes Umar's lack of adversity faced as a concern, but credits his skill for avoiding trouble. He sees Umar having finishing upside via submission or back takes, while Merab's path likely relies on pace and volume in later rounds.

May look at a point spread for Merab to win one or two rounds
"I'm gonna say um magedov becomes Champion I've believed in him from when he had his UFC debut"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host thinks Dvalishvili is up against it coming back quickly after winning the title in September. He believes Nurmagomedov will stifle Dvalishvili's high activity, stop takedowns, land better output, and possibly knock him down. He expects Nurmagomedov to win on the scorecards and become the new champion.

"I think nag gamov will do a good job in terms of stifling the high activity game of dval stopping the takedowns Landing the better output maybe even Landing big enough shots to knock down dval fi but I think …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul leans Umar but is not confident due to the price. He acknowledges Merab's skills but believes Umar's wrestling and striking are superior. Paul notes that Merab's takedown-heavy style may not work against a wrestler of Umar's caliber, and that Merab has been taken down before. However, he also points out that Umar hasn't fought elite competition and the line is too high, making Merab a value play.

Mentions that if Umar can mix in his own offensive wrestling and take Merab down, it changes the dynamic. No specific prop.
"I eventually ended up on the Nam magov side yeah that's fair"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by TKO in round two or three. He believes Umar is more dynamic on the feet with better finishing potential, and can stuff Merab's takedowns. He expects Umar to land a question mark kick or front kick for a KO. He also notes Merab's age and quick turnaround may be factors.

TKO round 2-3
"I think umar's going to get a question mark kick KO over morab deash that's my prediction I think he'll finish him in round two or three"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane also picks Umar, agreeing with Connor's reasoning. He highlights Umar's excellent boxing and jab, and his experience against pressure fighters. Zane notes that Merab's lack of a range striking game is a major weakness, and Umar has the tools to exploit it. He cautions that Merab's cardio and relentless pace make him dangerous, but Umar's ability to keep the fight at range and stuff takedowns should give him the edge. Zane also mentions that the odds are too wide, but he still believes Umar is the right pick.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm picking Umar Nurmagomedov off here."
WIN vs Sean O'Malley
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 47 of 89 52% 49 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 82 of 164 50% 214 of 310 6 of 15 40% 0 0 10:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 16 of 30 53% 25 of 41 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:20
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 18 of 38 47% 65 of 92 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:12
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 17 of 38 44% 25 of 46 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:52
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 6 of 9 66% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 21 of 32 65% 74 of 89 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean O'Malley 0 10 of 26 38% 25 of 42 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 47 of 89 52% 22 of 48 23 of 39 2 of 2 45 of 85 0 of 1 2 of 3
Sean O'Malley 82 of 164 50% 55 of 130 4 of 6 23 of 28 29 of 85 8 of 14 45 of 65
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 14 of 28 50% 6 of 16 6 of 10 2 of 2 14 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 16 of 30 53% 13 of 25 1 of 2 2 of 3 7 of 18 3 of 5 6 of 7
2 Merab Dvalishvili 5 of 10 50% 3 of 5 2 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
Sean O'Malley 18 of 38 47% 14 of 33 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 31
3 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 21 52% 7 of 13 4 of 8 0 of 0 11 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean O'Malley 17 of 38 44% 6 of 24 2 of 2 9 of 12 11 of 29 5 of 8 1 of 1
4 Merab Dvalishvili 6 of 9 66% 4 of 6 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Sean O'Malley 21 of 32 65% 20 of 31 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 13 0 of 0 15 of 19
5 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 21 52% 2 of 8 9 of 13 0 of 0 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 1
Sean O'Malley 10 of 26 38% 2 of 17 0 of 0 8 of 9 5 of 18 0 of 1 5 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dvalishvili (-285), O'Malley (+230)

Round 1
The main event will be refereed by Jason Herzog. O'Malley starts off with a spinning back kick to the body. Dvalishvili is able to walk O'Malley back towards the cage. Nice jab by O'Malley, who is also going to the body with punches from afar. Dvalishvili is eating jabs, having some issues with closing the distance early. O'Malley is keeping space with kicks and his jab. Dvalishvili is keeping the pressure on, forcing O'Malley to constantly move. A right hand for Dvalishvili lands, and the champion is then able to get a takedown. O'Malley is quick to get back up, although he grabs the fence. Dvalishvili stays clinched and leans a knee. O'Malley lands his own knee, but gets off-balance and slips. Dvalishvili lands a nice left hook before going for a double-leg takedown. O'Malley does a good job defending, but Dvalishvili is able to pick him up anyhow. Dvalishvili is in full guard. Dvalishvili slips in an elbow and several short hammerfists.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili

Round 2
O'Malley takes the center of the cage. Dvalishvili lands a body kick, while O'Malley misses a spinning back kick. A nice right hand to the body for "Suga." Dvalishvili counters O'Malley with two stinging right hands. O'Malley answers back with a strong right hand of his own. Dvalishvili is throwing kicks to the body. O'Malley's movement is much better this round. O'Malley lands a nice jab. Dvalishvili goes for a takedown, but O'Malley escapes from the cage. The round hits the halfway mark. O'Malley jabs to the body. Dvalishvili goes for another takedown, but O'Malley shucks him off and lands a nice left hand. Much better round for the challenger. Dvalishvili lands a right hand and goes for a takedown, but eats a left hand while entering. O'Malley is able to stay upright and hits the champ with a straight right as he exits. A big right hand for Dvalishvili, who keeps the pressure on as the round ends. Much closer round.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dvalishvili

Round 3
15 minutes to go. Dvalishvili opens with an overhand right and rushes the challenger. O'Malley lands a solid counter, but Dvalishvili keeps the pressure on and dumps "Suga" to the ground. Dvalishvili is in guard. O'Malley is too happy to sit in guard and is just allowing Dvalishvili to be in control. Dvalishvili is landing shots to the body and slips an elbow in. A lot of time is getting eaten up. Dvalishvili advances into half guard. O'Malley gives up his back in order to get to his feet. Dvalishvili lands a slick knee to the head. Dvalishvili puts O'Malley immediately back down after he gets back to his feet. The fight is fully in Dvalishvili's control. Dvalishvili is in half guard and landing punches with 30 seconds left. Dvalishvili scrambles well into north-south position and is able to lock in a modified guillotine choke. This looks tight, and O'Malley taps. It's over, and Dvalishvili retains with his second-ever submission win.

The Official Result
Merab Dvalishvili def. Sean O'Malley via Submission (Modified Guillotine Choke); R3, 4:42.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Angelo picks Sean O'Malley but does not bet. He notes O'Malley has incredible accuracy and power, and only needs one shot to finish, while Merab has a suspect chin and a cut over his eye plus possible staph infection that could affect his cardio. However, he acknowledges that a healthy Merab could shoot 550 takedowns and win a boring decision. He is on O'Malley's side but too much of a coward to bet, though he mentions Jacob has bet on O'Malley.

No bet; mentions Jacob has bet on O'Malley.
"I am I'm on the Shaun Ali side no bet though I'm too much of a coward to actually bet on that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Big Brady picks O'Malley, emphasizing damage over control. He notes Dvalishvili's game is takedown attempts with little damage, while O'Malley has power and finishing ability. He predicts O'Malley will land big shots and possibly knock out Dvalishvili in the second round, though a damage-based decision is also possible.

second round knockout
"I'm taking Al I think he probably I'll say knockout for a Ali here... I'll say in the second round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (fight day)
Merab Dvalishvili

Cody believes Merab's wrestling and cardio will be too much for O'Malley, especially given O'Malley's inactivity and injury concerns. He notes that O'Malley's takedown defense hasn't improved enough and that Merab can make the fight look easier by pushing the pace early. He sees a unanimous decision win for Merab.

"I got Morab likely by unanimous decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel picks Sean O'Malley to win, citing O'Malley's superior striking accuracy, footwork, and ability to fight going backwards. He believes O'Malley's teep kicks and straight shots will counter Merab's looping punches and pressure. Daniel also notes O'Malley's brown belt under Cesar Gracie and dismisses cardio concerns, but acknowledges Merab's takedown volume could be a factor if he closes distance.

O'Malley by TKO in round 3
"I'm going with sugar Sean O'Malley man I mean I just don't know why I'm going with sugar Sean but I have a feeling that he's gonna get it done you know via knockout"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Daniel Vreeland picks Sean O'Malley, emphasizing that Merab takes a shot in almost every fight and O'Malley will land that one. He notes Merab's top control is not great and people get back up, differentiating him from Aljamain Sterling. He believes O'Malley is getting an easier fight than against Sterling because Merab is more hitable and susceptible to being countered.

O'Malley by KO
"I'm gonna take Shan Ali too um I I mean obviously I liked it better when he was an underdog but the bottom line for me here is just morab takes a shot in almost every single fight he's in"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

Jeff Fox picks Sean O'Malley because he is a striker with a big reach advantage and has cleared every hurdle. He acknowledges Merab could take him down and grind out a win, but believes O'Malley can piece him up on the feet and has shown solid grappling.

"I'm going with the striker I'll go with all Mali he's know he's surprised that I think we take you know his clown person outside the cage um we let it maybe or some people let it um that it …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)
Sean O'Malley

Lucrative James believes the odds are slightly off, with Merab as a -305 favorite. He notes that Sean O'Malley has more margin for improvement after a close first fight where he hurt Merab in the fifth round. He sees value in O'Malley at +255 and plans to bet him, though he acknowledges Merab's wrestling and cardio make him the likely winner. He emphasizes betting value over picking the winner.

"I'm calling Shaun Ali as the clear side. Shauna Ali is the clear bet inside and plus 255 is good to me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili has shown great durability and will stick on O'Malley like white on rice, not giving him the space to generate knockout power. Expects Dvalishvili to put O'Malley through the ringer, possibly approaching 50 takedown attempts, and win on the scorecards.

"I have to go with the machine who has shown great durability throughout his career and I expect him to stick on Ali like white on rice so that he doesn't give him the space required from Ali to generate …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (fight day)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul thinks Merab's game plan is clear and that O'Malley's only chance is a puncher's chance. He points out that O'Malley hasn't fought since the first loss and has been nursing injuries, while Merab has been active and improving. He expects Merab to control the fight with wrestling and win a decision.

"I got Morab likely by unanimous decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley by TKO in the first or second round. He notes Merab has a staph infection and a cut over his eye, which could be exploited. He believes O'Malley's footwork and takedown defense will neutralize Merab's wrestling, and that O'Malley's upward knees and left hook will be key. He also suggests the UFC may favor O'Malley and that an early stoppage is possible if Merab gets hurt.

O'Malley by TKO in first or second round; mentions staph infection and cut as factors
"I'm going to go Sha Al by TKO in the first or second round putting morab away and I'm going to tell you this as well on top of the staff infection the cut over his eye that's definitely a …"
WIN vs Henry Cejudo
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 74 of 172 43% 167 of 273 5 of 11 45% 1 0 4:23
Henry Cejudo 0 29 of 78 37% 54 of 106 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 16 of 32 50% 42 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Henry Cejudo 0 11 of 20 55% 36 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:53
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 34 of 78 43% 49 of 94 2 of 4 50% 1 0 1:46
Henry Cejudo 0 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:12
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 24 of 62 38% 76 of 120 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:24
Henry Cejudo 0 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 74 of 172 43% 44 of 128 20 of 34 10 of 10 51 of 134 13 of 24 10 of 14
Henry Cejudo 29 of 78 37% 13 of 54 5 of 11 11 of 13 24 of 68 5 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 16 of 32 50% 9 of 22 4 of 7 3 of 3 9 of 23 6 of 8 1 of 1
Henry Cejudo 11 of 20 55% 4 of 13 3 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 34 of 78 43% 22 of 61 9 of 14 3 of 3 27 of 64 1 of 6 6 of 8
Henry Cejudo 9 of 29 31% 6 of 22 2 of 5 1 of 2 6 of 24 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 24 of 62 38% 13 of 45 7 of 13 4 of 4 15 of 47 6 of 10 3 of 5
Henry Cejudo 9 of 29 31% 3 of 19 0 of 3 6 of 7 9 of 26 0 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his insane conditioning and relentless chain wrestling. He notes Henry Cejudo gave up four takedowns to Aljamain Sterling and expects Merab to take him down repeatedly. He is rooting for Cejudo but believes Merab's style is the worst matchup for him in the division.

"morab is going to be the pick I will be rooting big time for Henry cejudo here but you got to go morab"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision. He praises Merab's relentless pace and volume, referencing his record 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan. He believes Cejudo, at 37 and coming off a layoff, will struggle to keep up. He compares it to the Jose Aldo fight where Merab lost all takedowns but still won via pressure and cage control. He expects a similar outcome here.

Merab by decision
"I'm taking Mor Rob here I'm taking Mor Rob by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

Cody leans toward Cejudo as an underdog, thinking his Olympic-level wrestling could neutralize Merab's takedown-heavy game. He notes that Cejudo is a natural flyweight and may not be outsized by Merab. He questions whether Merab's wrestling will be effective against a gold medalist. He sees value in Cejudo at plus money.

"I have interest in the underdog Henry cejudo um just because I think he obviously being a Olympic champion in wrestling can maybe thwart uh Mor's best path to Victory which is nonstop attacking takedowns."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Vreeland picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his youth, cardio, and relentless pace. He notes Merab's 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan and his ability to outwork opponents. He questions Cejudo's motivation and training situation, suggesting he is not in the same shape as during his championship run. He believes Merab's pressure and volume will fatigue Cejudo and lead to a decision win.

"I think Merab is going to win too... I think he gets it done here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili's high cardio, pace, and output overwhelm opponents, forcing mistakes. Cejudo has technical advantages but his prime is past. Expects Dvalishvili to win by decision.

"give me deales fi by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul picks Merab, citing his non-stop pressure and takedown volume. He notes that Merab's wrestling is his staple, and even if he doesn't hold Cejudo down, the constant takedown attempts will wear on Cejudo. He references Merab's win over Petr Yan, where he attempted 49 takedowns, and his ability to out-strike Aldo without any takedowns. He believes Merab's cardio and pace will be too much for Cejudo.

"yeah man because that ability to just keep going the non-stop pressure in the action so I I think that that eventually grinds away as audo and uh gives him a points Victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his size advantage, cardio, and pressure. He notes Cejudo's inactivity and overthinking in the Aljamain Sterling fight. He believes Merab's grappling and pace will annoy Cejudo, even if Cejudo gets back up. He mentions a conspiracy about Cejudo firing his coach, but ultimately trusts Merab's momentum.

"I'm going with Merab... Morab's got not that bad standup... monstrous cardio and you're giving him a size and mass advantage over Cejudo."
WIN vs Petr Yan
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 75 of 143 52% 87 of 155 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:50
Petr Yan 0 147 of 338 43% 202 of 401 11 of 49 22% 0 0 6:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 13 of 25 52% 20 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Petr Yan 0 22 of 62 35% 35 of 81 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:10
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 18 of 35 51% 21 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Petr Yan 0 35 of 80 43% 41 of 86 3 of 7 42% 0 0 0:59
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 8 of 27 29% 9 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Petr Yan 0 15 of 46 32% 22 of 53 1 of 14 7% 0 0 1:34
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 31 67% 21 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
Petr Yan 0 38 of 75 50% 51 of 88 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:01
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 15 of 25 60% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Petr Yan 0 37 of 75 49% 53 of 93 5 of 12 41% 0 0 2:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 75 of 143 52% 41 of 105 16 of 19 18 of 19 66 of 132 9 of 11 0 of 0
Petr Yan 147 of 338 43% 91 of 260 35 of 52 21 of 26 129 of 312 18 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 13 of 25 52% 4 of 15 2 of 2 7 of 8 11 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
Petr Yan 22 of 62 35% 12 of 48 6 of 9 4 of 5 15 of 54 7 of 8 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 18 of 35 51% 6 of 21 8 of 10 4 of 4 16 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
Petr Yan 35 of 80 43% 19 of 59 8 of 11 8 of 10 32 of 75 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 8 of 27 29% 5 of 23 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 23 2 of 4 0 of 0
Petr Yan 15 of 46 32% 10 of 37 5 of 8 0 of 1 13 of 41 2 of 5 0 of 0
4 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 31 67% 15 of 25 4 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 28 3 of 3 0 of 0
Petr Yan 38 of 75 50% 24 of 55 10 of 15 4 of 5 36 of 72 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 15 of 25 60% 11 of 21 1 of 1 3 of 3 15 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Petr Yan 37 of 75 49% 26 of 61 6 of 9 5 of 5 33 of 70 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Angelo picks Petr Yan despite acknowledging Merab's relentless wrestling. He believes Yan is the better fighter and will make Merab pay on his entries, using leg kicks and potentially his own takedowns. He compares Yan's situation to Figueiredo's potential downward spiral but notes that many think Yan beat O'Malley and Sterling. He goes with his brain over his gut.

"I am going to go with the brain here pyoto's gonna be the pick... I think he'll spin off I think he's gonna light up marab's legs he may shoot his own takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan confidently, calling it a good matchup for him. He highlights Yan's incredible takedown defense and get-up game, and notes Dvalishvili has no control grappling—he can take down but not control. Brady expects Yan to stuff takedowns easier as the fight goes on and finish Dvalishvili with a fourth-round TKO, doing all the damage while Dvalishvili struggles to hold him down.

win by TKO in round 4
"I like yawn a lot I like yawn to finish this fight I'm gonna say fourth round TKO for Pierre on"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Cody picks Petr Yan but with hesitation due to the -250 price and Yan's recent performances, especially the close fight with Sean O'Malley. He notes Yan's slow starts and Dvalishvili's fast start, but believes Yan's volume, body attack, and ability to get back up will break Dvalishvili. He recommends live betting after the first round.

suggests live betting after first round
"I really don't like the money line on this to be honest but I do have Peter yawn winning fight and I think you're going to be able to probably live at this after the first and feel a lot …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Connor picks Petr Yan, emphasizing Yan's superior striking technique, timing, and power. He notes that Yan's left hook is a key weapon against Dvalishvili, who is vulnerable to that punch due to overcommitting. Connor acknowledges Dvalishvili's relentless pressure and cardio but believes Yan's counterpunching and ability to pick his shots will prevail. He also points out that Yan's takedown defense and scrambling are solid enough to avoid being controlled.

Odds mentioned: Yan opened -175, now -265; Dvalishvili opened +150, now +210.
"I think he's going to win. Yeah, he's going to, I have to expect that he's just going to be able to see the moments when Dvalishvili really actually sits down and plants his feet. And when he does see …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Petr Yan

I believe Petr Yan's superior technical striking and defensive wrestling will be the difference. Merab's takedown-heavy style relies on volume, but Yan's takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet should neutralize that. Yan's power and leg kicks will slow Merab's explosiveness, leading to a knockout within three rounds. Merab may have moments, but Yan's damage output will outweigh the control time.

Yan by KO round 3
"I think he knocks out murab de valasfili within three rounds maybe even the fourth but I think he knocks him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Paul picks Petr Yan to win, noting Yan's slow starts but superior skill set and ability to calculate and adjust. He mentions Yan's takedown defense and cardio as key factors, and suggests live betting after the first round when Yan's price may improve. He is hesitant about the -250 line but confident Yan wins.

sprinkled Yan round 4 at +2200 and Yan round 5 at +3300; suggests live betting after first round
"I am going to side with Peter yawn to get back on track minus 250 isn't doing it for me I did sprinkle yawn round four at 20 plus 2200 and yawn round five at plus 3 300."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan, believing he is unfinishable and has improved his grappling. He notes that Merab is open on the feet and Yan will capitalize with elbows and shots off the break. He predicts Yan will win by decision or late-round TKO, as Merab's pace may slow and Yan's power will take over. He also mentions referees being anti-clinch, which may hinder Merab's game.

by decision or late rounds TKO
"I think Jan's got this one in the bag I do I was watching marab's fight with Marla Mirage I know it's Marla Mirage and he's dangerous and he is going to drop people early and that's just how it …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Zane picks Petr Yan, citing Yan's excellent counterpunching and left hook as key advantages. He notes that Dvalishvili is vulnerable to left hooks, as seen in fights against Marlon Moraes and Cody Stamann. Zane also highlights Yan's solid takedown defense and scrambling, which should prevent Dvalishvili from replicating Aljamain Sterling's back-taking game. He expects Yan to time Dvalishvili's entries and land cleaner shots.

Odds mentioned: Yan opened -175, now -265; Dvalishvili opened +150, now +210.
"I think this is a pretty good matchup for him because Marab can do a lot of Aljo type things. ... The difference is, is that Aljamaine Sterling is possibly the best back taker in the sport. ... Marab is …"
WIN vs José Aldo
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 38 of 67 56% 59 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 57 of 147 38% 135 of 230 0 of 16 0% 0 0 5:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 15 of 25 60% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 16 of 49 32% 21 of 54 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:34
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 22 50% 25 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 11 of 29 37% 62 of 84 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:54
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 30 of 69 43% 52 of 92 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 38 of 67 56% 11 of 35 21 of 25 6 of 7 35 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0
José Aldo 57 of 147 38% 20 of 102 10 of 14 27 of 31 43 of 132 14 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 15 of 25 60% 1 of 8 11 of 13 3 of 4 15 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
José Aldo 16 of 49 32% 2 of 31 3 of 4 11 of 14 15 of 47 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 22 50% 5 of 15 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 11 of 29 37% 5 of 22 2 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 12 of 20 60% 5 of 12 6 of 7 1 of 1 11 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 30 of 69 43% 13 of 49 5 of 7 12 of 13 19 of 58 11 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili over José Aldo, though he admits it's a tough pick and he'll be rooting for Aldo. He highlights Aldo's legendary takedown defense, noting that only Frankie Edgar has taken him down more than once in 27 Zuffa fights. However, Angelo believes that without Aldo's leg kicks to slow Merab's relentless wrestling, Aldo will be defending takedowns all night and likely lose a decision. He emphasizes Merab's insane 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and his chain-wrestling style.

Plans to hammer the 'most takedowns' prop bet on Merab Dvalishvili when it drops on BetOnline, similar to the Jason Witt bet.
"murab's gonna be the pick i'm gonna be rooting for jose aldo the entire time and i will gladly get this pick wrong"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as the underdog. He highlights Aldo's 90% takedown defense against elite competition, and believes Merab Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling will be neutralized. Aldo is the clearly better striker and has looked good recently. Brady expects Aldo to stuff takedowns, land more damage on the feet, and win a decision. He notes that Dvalishvili's wins are against lower-level competition and this is a big step up.

Aldo by decision
"i like the dog here on jose auto i like him to stuff takedowns i know it's not going to be a very popular pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo as a live underdog, citing Aldo's excellent takedown defense (90% career), striking advantage, and ability to win rounds. He thinks Merab's run is overrated and that Aldo can exploit his aggressive style. He acknowledges it's a close fight but likes the plus money.

"i think jose still again another one of these guys that's getting a little bit older but probably still has something left in the tank for underdog money in this close of a fight he's going to lose half the …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to win a split decision, but he is hesitant because the fight is three rounds instead of five. He notes that Aldo has legendary takedown defense (90% over a long sample size) and will likely win the first round. However, he worries about Aldo's cardio in the elevation of Salt Lake City, as Aldo did not train at altitude. Levi believes Merab's relentless wrestling and pace will wear Aldo down in the second and third rounds, leading to a close decision. He acknowledges that Aldo could win a split decision and that there is value on Aldo as a dog.

Mentions that if it were a five-round fight he would confidently pick Merab, but as a three-round fight it's a toss-up. Says Aldo dog money has value because it could be a split decision.
"five round fight I'm confidently picking morab three-round fight it's it's uh it's like who's judging this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo's superior striking, get-up game, and takedown defense should allow him to land more damage than Dvalishvili, who struggles to hold opponents down. The host expects Aldo to win by knockout, possibly similar to the Jack Cartwright fight. He advises only 1 unit due to the risk of a changing of the guard.

Aldo by knockout (+450) is mentioned. Also notes under 2.5 rounds (+175) and doesn't go to decision (+150).
"I like jose aldo on the spot and i'm doing my best to not get sucked into the whole aldo and how great he used to be."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul picks Merab but is not confident. He thinks Merab's relentless takedown attempts could be key, but notes his poor top control. He mentions he might play Merab over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks and prefers live betting.

over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"i'm gonna pick marab i think he does secure takedowns won't be touching this unless it's in a live betting market"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
José Aldo

The Guru predicts José Aldo wins by TKO in the second round. He describes Aldo popping the jab, landing leg kicks, and checking Merab's leg kicks. He sees Aldo stuffing takedowns, landing knees to the body, and eventually hurting Merab with body shots, leading to a TKO. He acknowledges the possibility that Aldo could get mashed up like he did against Yan in the fifth round, but believes his prediction will come true.

TKO in round 2
"tko in the second round for jose aldo the legend"
Brad Katona - Fight History
LOSS vs Bekzat Almakhan
KO R1 1:04 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brad Katona 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bekzat Almakhan 1 8 of 11 72% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brad Katona 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bekzat Almakhan 1 8 of 11 72% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brad Katona 1 of 4 25% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bekzat Almakhan 8 of 11 72% 7 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brad Katona 1 of 4 25% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bekzat Almakhan 8 of 11 72% 7 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Angelo picks Brad Katona, criticizing the hype around Bekzat Almakhan who lost his UFC debut despite landing one good punch. He trusts Katona's grit and forward pressure. He mentions a safer bet on Katona plus 3.5 (buying points) rather than the moneyline, noting Katona is at home and may get favorable judging.

Considering Brad Katona +3.5 (buying points)
"I'm going to pick the gritty Canadian who will move forward and fight his ass off. Brad Katana is not the best fighter in the world, but I know for a fact he will fight his ass off."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Big Brady sees this as a very close fight, with both fighters well-rounded. He notes that Bekzat Almakhan's hype is based on one moment against Umar Nurmagomedov, but he lost most of that fight. He favors Brad Katona's volume and wrestling, and thinks the fight goes to decision. He picks the Canadian Katona in what he expects to be a close fight, relying on the judges.

"I think this fight's going to be very close. I think this fight's going to be very competitive back and forth. ... give me the Canadian in what I think is going to be a very very close fight. Taking …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Brad Katona

The host believes Brad Katona has been underachieving and will showcase his pace, fight IQ, and defensive grappling to keep the fight in the striking realm. He expects Katona to dictate the pace with his striking advantage and mix in some grappling to secure a decision victory.

"I believe this is a fight that Kona can start showcasing that he's been underachieving in his last few fights."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bekzat Almakhan

The MMA Guru picks Almakhan, citing his physicality, power, and performance against Umar Nurmagomedov. He thinks Katona is untalented and lacks finishing ability, while Almakhan will stuff takedowns and land a TKO. He notes Almakhan's fast, dangerous striking and Katona's well-rounded but unimpressive style.

TKO finish
"I'm actually going to go with Beex Al Macan getting a TKO finish over Brad Kona."
LOSS vs Jean Matsumoto
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jean Matsumoto 0 89 of 141 63% 117 of 171 3 of 8 37% 0 0 3:35
Brad Katona 0 89 of 201 44% 109 of 223 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jean Matsumoto 0 30 of 44 68% 39 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Brad Katona 0 20 of 53 37% 24 of 57 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:04
2 Jean Matsumoto 0 37 of 61 60% 46 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:26
Brad Katona 0 45 of 100 45% 50 of 105 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:38
3 Jean Matsumoto 0 22 of 36 61% 32 of 48 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:29
Brad Katona 0 24 of 48 50% 35 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jean Matsumoto 89 of 141 63% 68 of 118 12 of 13 9 of 10 73 of 124 15 of 15 1 of 2
Brad Katona 89 of 201 44% 62 of 164 6 of 10 21 of 27 85 of 196 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jean Matsumoto 30 of 44 68% 21 of 35 4 of 4 5 of 5 19 of 33 10 of 10 1 of 1
Brad Katona 20 of 53 37% 14 of 42 1 of 3 5 of 8 19 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jean Matsumoto 37 of 61 60% 28 of 52 5 of 5 4 of 4 34 of 58 3 of 3 0 of 0
Brad Katona 45 of 100 45% 33 of 87 2 of 2 10 of 11 43 of 98 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jean Matsumoto 22 of 36 61% 19 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 1 20 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 1
Brad Katona 24 of 48 50% 15 of 35 3 of 5 6 of 8 23 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Angelo picks Jean Matsumoto but is hesitant, acknowledging that Brad Katona is a tough, durable fighter who could spoil the plans. He notes Matsumoto's well-rounded skills, BJJ black belt, and Muay Thai, but also points out that he was taken down nine times by Dan Argueta and nearly lost. He thinks Matsumoto's volume and willingness to let his hands go will be key, but he is not confident enough to bet the moneyline. He is considering a plus 3.5 round prop on Katona or the over 1.5 rounds.

plus 3.5 round prop on Katona or over 1.5 rounds
"I'm going to pick Jean here because I do think if he lets his hands go he's going to look great"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Big Brady picks Jean Matsumoto by decision. He acknowledges Katona's high fight IQ and ability to win minutes, but believes Matsumoto will be the more active striker and do more damage. He compares it to Katona's loss to Garrett Armfield, where Katona was out-struck. He expects a competitive fight but Matsumoto's damage will win the decision.

"it's a pretty easy pick here it's Matsumoto it's mimoto by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Connor also picks Matsumoto, citing Katona's tendency to have a bad start and not dictate the early going. He notes that Matsumoto is a strong athlete who will come forward, but acknowledges that Katona is tough and often comes on strong late. Connor sees it as a mirror match and a split decision possibility, but leans Matsumoto due to his physical advantages.

"I think so too, even though like I really can see this fight devolving into one where Matsumoto's not looking very good."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Katona is a high-IQ fighter, but Matsumoto has good enough defensive grappling to keep the fight upright and utilize his striking advantage to touch up Katona en route to a decision victory. The line is a bit wide, so there could be some Katona value on his underdog line, but Matsumoto is more dangerous in the striking realm.

"I think that Gene matoto has the good enough uh defensive grappling to keep this fight upright and utilize his striking advantage to touch up Katona on route to a decision Victory"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The Guru is impressed by Matsumoto's debut win over Dan Argueta, noting he looked amazing and showed talent. He criticizes Brad Katona's wins as being over low-level opponents and points out Katona's short reach. He believes Matsumoto, an undefeated 25-year-old prospect with a full training camp, will get the win.

"I am going to go Matt zuto here over Brad Katona I just don't see any talent in Brad katona's game"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Zane picks Matsumoto mainly because he expects Katona to have a slow start, as Katona often lets physically imposing fighters dictate the early going. He notes that Matsumoto is a powerful athlete who will blitz with power, but acknowledges that Katona has a good jab and could jab Matsumoto up. Zane sees it as a real 50-50 toss-up and doesn't feel great about the pick.

Matsumoto opened at -261, now -244; Katona opened at +222, now +210. Zane thinks the odds should be much closer.
"I kind of think I'm going to pick Matsumoto to win."
WIN vs Jesse Butler
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brad Katona 0 68 of 113 60% 148 of 217 3 of 3 100% 0 0 10:50
Jesse Butler 0 30 of 82 36% 32 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brad Katona 0 8 of 14 57% 44 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:31
Jesse Butler 0 7 of 11 63% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brad Katona 0 15 of 24 62% 41 of 64 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:49
Jesse Butler 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brad Katona 0 45 of 75 60% 63 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:30
Jesse Butler 0 21 of 68 30% 22 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brad Katona 68 of 113 60% 59 of 101 3 of 6 6 of 6 27 of 56 1 of 1 40 of 56
Jesse Butler 30 of 82 36% 16 of 63 9 of 14 5 of 5 30 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brad Katona 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 9
Jesse Butler 7 of 11 63% 1 of 2 3 of 6 3 of 3 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brad Katona 15 of 24 62% 15 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 20
Jesse Butler 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Brad Katona 45 of 75 60% 36 of 63 3 of 6 6 of 6 26 of 48 0 of 0 19 of 27
Jesse Butler 21 of 68 30% 14 of 59 5 of 7 2 of 2 21 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Brad Katona

Angelo is very confident in Brad Katona. He notes that Brad is a two-time Ultimate Fighter winner with high fight IQ, good technical striking, and fantastic cardio. He can wrestle if needed, as shown in his last fight. Jesse Butler was knocked out quickly in his UFC debut and has terrible takedown defense. Angelo thinks Brad dominates everywhere and sees no path to victory for Jesse.

"I don't see how he loses this fight he's too good to get caught in some random submission"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Big Brady picks Brad Katona to win by decision. He thinks Katona should not be a -600 favorite but sees no path to victory for Jesse Butler, who is cutting to bantamweight for the first time and has poor takedown defense. He doubts Katona will finish but expects a clear decision win.

"give me bra atona to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Cody picks Katona, noting that Butler has been inactive for two years and was knocked out quickly by Jim Miller in his UFC debut. Katona is a decision machine with six UFC fights all going to decision, and he has faced better competition. Cody expects Katona to use his wrestling and control to win a decision, though he warns that the minus 600 price is steep for a decision fighter.

"it's Katona top ticket all day for me"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Daniel expects Katona to win a decision but calls it a dog-or-pass situation due to the steep price. He notes Katona is on a decline and fights on slim margins, while Butler has a nine-inch reach advantage and is dropping two weight classes. However, he doubts Butler's skills are UFC-level.

pass
"Brad Katona is the last guy I want to trust at minus 625 because he's just kind of like a you know play it safe harmless Point guy"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Brad Katona

Jacob picks Brad Katona, but adds a caveat about Jesse Butler's weight cut. He notes that Butler is dropping from 170 to 135, which could be a huge disadvantage. Brad is not a dangerous finisher, but the weight cut might make Butler vulnerable. Jacob thinks Brad will win, possibly by decision, but the weight cut could lead to a finish. He also mentions that Brad's takedown prop might be interesting.

Brad Katona inside the distance could be a sneaky play due to weight cut
"BR Katona inside the distance could be a sneaky play just because that weight cut I don't know how he's going to make the weight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Katona is a solid all-around fighter with great fight IQ and cardio, who should outwork Butler with his grappling and grinding style. Butler has power but was knocked out quickly by Jim Miller. Katona's experience and reliability should lead to a decision win, though the -600 price is steep.

"I do still lean but uh sorry uh Katona and I do think he grinds his fight out he's just a little bit more reliable"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Paul picks Katona, noting that Butler has not impressed and Katona is a proven UFC fighter. He expects Katona to win by decision or submission, but acknowledges the price is high. Paul thinks Katona's wrestling and experience will be too much for Butler.

"I think Kona wins I'm curious like maybe Katona by submission I expect him to probably go for takedowns here but uh I don't know really what to do with this fight Cody but um Jesse Butler does not impress …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jesse Butler

The Guru initially leans Katona but switches to Butler after considering Butler's massive reach advantage (73-inch reach vs Katona's 64.5). He says Katona has no ability to finish on the feet and looked incapable of inflicting pain against Garrett Armfield. He thinks Butler is too big, strong, and powerful, and will catch Katona and finish him. He acknowledges Butler lost to 'absolute schmucks' but is willing to risk the underdog pick.

Underdog pick; mentions Butler's reach advantage and finishing potential
"I'm going to say he wins this one massive reach Advantage going to catch Katona and finish him there's an underdog pick right there"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Garrett Armfield 0 64 of 155 41% 76 of 172 4 of 9 44% 0 0 4:35
Brad Katona 0 105 of 168 62% 130 of 193 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Garrett Armfield 0 20 of 48 41% 23 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:14
Brad Katona 0 31 of 51 60% 31 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Garrett Armfield 0 25 of 66 37% 27 of 71 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:27
Brad Katona 0 41 of 66 62% 41 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Garrett Armfield 0 19 of 41 46% 26 of 49 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:54
Brad Katona 0 33 of 51 64% 58 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Garrett Armfield 64 of 155 41% 49 of 138 8 of 9 7 of 8 46 of 126 17 of 28 1 of 1
Brad Katona 105 of 168 62% 74 of 131 21 of 27 10 of 10 99 of 162 6 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Garrett Armfield 20 of 48 41% 14 of 41 1 of 2 5 of 5 14 of 39 6 of 9 0 of 0
Brad Katona 31 of 51 60% 16 of 33 8 of 11 7 of 7 31 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Garrett Armfield 25 of 66 37% 20 of 60 4 of 4 1 of 2 20 of 58 5 of 8 0 of 0
Brad Katona 41 of 66 62% 28 of 50 10 of 13 3 of 3 41 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Garrett Armfield 19 of 41 46% 15 of 37 3 of 3 1 of 1 12 of 29 6 of 11 1 of 1
Brad Katona 33 of 51 64% 30 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 0 27 of 45 6 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Angelo picks Katona, citing his footwork, volume, and cardio as advantages. He expects Katona to take over as Armfield slows down, predicting a 29-28 decision. He initially thought the odds were wide but talked himself into confidence, planning to place a bet.

Will bet on Katona
"Brad Katana should win this fight and I just talked myself to being even more confident in him probably going to throw a bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Big Brady picks Katona, expecting him to fight smart and use wrestling. He notes Armfield has poor takedown defense and has lost by submission twice. He believes Katona's fight IQ and experience against better competition will lead to a decision win. He thinks Katona won't brawl like he did against Cody Gibson.

decision
"I think he gets it done by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Cody picks Katona due to his well-rounded skills, technical boxing, and experience. He thinks Armfield lacks the grappling to stick with Katona and will break under pressure. He predicts a late stoppage or decision win for Katona.

"I think Katona wins... maybe a late stoppage win for Brad Katona."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Brad Katona but hopes he is wrong. He notes Katona's experience and ability to slow down younger fighters, but worries about his recent war with Cody Gibson and potential decline. Armfield has heavy hands and could knock Katona out, but Vreeland expects Katona to grind out a decision or get a submission.

"I'm a lean Katona a little bit but i' I'd love to see Garrett Armfield win"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Armfield vs Katona.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Brad Katona

I'm taking Katona to win by decision. He has a huge experience advantage and higher fight IQ. He can blend his wrestling behind his striking to catch Armfield by surprise. I think Armfield will be surprised by the pace Katona sets. Katona will give Armfield different looks and outpoint him. However, Armfield has potential and could showcase he's ready for this level, but I'm still going with Katona.

decision victory
"I think Kona comes out on the winning end here and gets his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Paul picks Katona, noting his intelligence and well-rounded game. He jokes about Katona's fake Irish accent but respects his skills. He thinks Katona will use takedowns and top control to win a decision.

"It's the Brad Katona style... you're not going to love it watching it typically but it's effective."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Brad Katona

The MMA Guru picks Brad Katona, calling him underrated and noting his wins over undefeated fighters in Brave CF. He criticizes Garrett Armfield's level of competition and questions his consistency. He highlights Katona's toughness, kicks, and takedown ability. He predicts a submission win via rear-naked choke in round two.

submission, round 2
"I'm going to go with Brad katuna the weirdest accented man in the UFC I think he's better than Garrett Armfield"
WIN vs Cody Gibson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brad Katona 0 160 of 311 51% 173 of 327 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Cody Gibson 0 164 of 268 61% 169 of 273 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brad Katona 0 36 of 87 41% 39 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cody Gibson 0 49 of 85 57% 49 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brad Katona 0 58 of 108 53% 59 of 111 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Cody Gibson 0 64 of 94 68% 66 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brad Katona 0 66 of 116 56% 75 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cody Gibson 0 51 of 89 57% 54 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brad Katona 160 of 311 51% 116 of 254 25 of 37 19 of 20 127 of 262 33 of 49 0 of 0
Cody Gibson 164 of 268 61% 130 of 228 22 of 27 12 of 13 134 of 233 30 of 35 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brad Katona 36 of 87 41% 22 of 70 5 of 7 9 of 10 29 of 76 7 of 11 0 of 0
Cody Gibson 49 of 85 57% 39 of 73 6 of 7 4 of 5 42 of 78 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Brad Katona 58 of 108 53% 45 of 91 6 of 10 7 of 7 47 of 89 11 of 19 0 of 0
Cody Gibson 64 of 94 68% 47 of 76 12 of 13 5 of 5 52 of 79 12 of 15 0 of 0
3 Brad Katona 66 of 116 56% 49 of 93 14 of 20 3 of 3 51 of 97 15 of 19 0 of 0
Cody Gibson 51 of 89 57% 44 of 79 4 of 7 3 of 3 40 of 76 11 of 13 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Gibson vs. Brad Katona
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Katona (-168), Gibson (+142)

Round 1
There could be some history in the making for this bantamweight battle that will kick off the ESPN portion of the prelim card. The first of two victors of Season 31 of TUF will be crowned, with the first coming at 135 pounds. Both men are UFC veterans, but Katona (12-2, 2-2 UFC) is the one who could break new ground by becoming the first two-time TUF winner ever. Of note, his opponent, Gibson (19-8, 1-3 UFC), faced future champ and UFC 292 headliner Aljamain Sterling in his promotional debut back in 2014, where he ultimately dropped a decision. The “six-figure contract” and bragging rights will be awarded to the winner, in a matchup that will be governed by referee Marc Goddard. The former show teammates do not decide to clap hands, and instead they rush out towards one another to strike. They do just that, one after the other, until they end up swinging at the same time and ending up in a clinch. Gibson pushes off and lands a pair of hooks, and Katona knocks him back with a counter. Gibson connects with a clean right hand, and Katona shakes it off and gets off a jab. Katona comes up hitting nothing but air when he looses hooks, and Gibson attempts to reach him with a front kick and fails. Katona sticks his man with a left, and Gibson ducks down to get off a body kick. Katona retaliates with a leg kick, and Gibson dips and strikes while avoiding offense that wings towards him. Both fighters are amped up and trading shots, and Gibson pushes out two jabs and dings Katona with a left hand. Gibson trips on his way in, and this allows Katona the briefest amount of time to shake it off. Gibson clubs his man with a right, and Katona stands firm and bashes him with a solid left hook. Gibson is not remotely concerned as he meanders forward, and he swings himself into a clinch. Gibson absorbs a right hand and misses with a second, and Katona counters with a left that marks up Gibson’s eye. Gibson continues to surge forward, hurling offense and making Katona have to match his pace. “The Renegade” mixes things up with a chopping kick, and he shrugs off anything that Katona lands on him to throw his own heavy blows. The two tie up, but nothing comes up it other than a right hand from Gibson on the break. Gibson tries to follow it, and he ends up lobbing strikes that are way off the mark. Katona strings together several low kicks, and they both work the body. The furiously paced round ends with a sharp left from Katona.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gibson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gibson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gibson

Round 2
The bantamweights come back to the middle to start off the round, and Katona is the first to spring into action with a combination of fists. Katona then switches to a leg kick, and he rips a left to the body and nails Gibson with a right over the top. Gibson steels himself and throws back with gravitas, drawing a takedown attempt out of the Canadian. Gibson drills his man with an uppercut, and he pressures forward until they tie up and trade additional uppercuts. Katona does not register a leg kick, and he pops Gibson with a jab. Gibson does the same with his own jab and a follow-up right hand, and the two are taking turns to smack the other around. Katona flicks out a jab, and Gibson counters him with an uppercut and a body shot. Gibson walks face-first into a left hand, and he fires off a right hook and then goes to the body. Gibson again eats a few strikes, and the two start fighting in a phone booth and lay into each other. Gibson slings a right hand that bounces off the temple, and Katona smiles and delivers a right hand on the chin and a clean left shortly thereafter. Gibson lands a leg kick, gets up close to land a body shot, and then backs off when Katona scores with two hooks. Gibson overswings with a left hand, and Katona tags him a few times while he is recoiling. Katona suddenly goes up high with a kick, and frowns when it is blocked. Gibson misses the mark with a huge uppercut, and a few right hands from Gibson have developed some swelling around Katona’s left eye. Gibson targets it with a clubbing right and an elbow, and Katona tries to tie him up for a moment but ends up eating a few clinch strikes before releasing. Katona sits down on a right hand, timing it perfectly as Gibson ducked right into it, and Gibson powers forward to clinch up and recover. Katona jumps at him with a knee, and he fires off a short salvo of strikes that knock Gibson back again. Katona keeps Gibson honest with pawing jabs and a right hand, and Gibson appears to be fading. Katona lines up a right hand down the middle, and the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Katona
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Katona
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Katona

Round 3
Gibson waves to the crowd to get them fired up, and the audience reacts positively. Going into the last round, it could be all tied up, and they treat things as such as they get right after it. Gibson walks through the fast fists that fly at his face so that he can drive a right hand home, and Katona reels but comes back. Katona slides to the side and avoids the huge hooks, and he starts peppering Gibson with jabs. When Gibson changes this up to let go with his own jabs, Katona lets him have it with big punches. Gibson parries a jump knee and a kick to the body, and he drills Katona with a right hand down the pipe. Katona backpedals and eats another one like a plate of poutine, and the two let the other have it. This results in them coming together for a brief clinch, and Katona pushes him back and lets fly a high kick that slaps into the shoulder. Katona kicks with his other leg, and he books Gibson in the calf when he speedily moves. Gibson takes a punch to give one back, and he stings Katona with a right hook. Gibson plants two uppercuts on the chin, and he slides back and pops Katona with a clean right. Katona ignores a leg kick, and he knees the body and sneaks in a short right. Katona loads up and connects with a right, and he digs a few punches to the body and might have hurt Gibson. A few left hands force Gibson to cover his eye, and it is swelling badly. Gibson backs up to the wall as Katona lays into him, until Gibson decides to activate and sling fire back at him. Katona staggers back and then rushes back into action, and the two proceed to give it everything they have in an absolutely terrific brawl. Katona lands, Gibson gets him back, Katona stings him and Gibson shakes Katona up. This back-and-forth trading ends only when they tie up to catch their breath. Gibson pushes off and then sprints at Katona, who is backing away to try to let time expire. Gibson reaches him and blasts him with a few punches, and this all-action thriller comes to a close – unless there is an unexpected “sudden victory” round in the event of a draw. No matter who gets their hand raised, this is an instant “Fight of the Night” frontrunner as well as a scrap that might earn “Fight of the Year” consideration when it is all said and done. The two bantamweights embrace, having put on a display reminiscent of Forrest Griffin vs. Stephan Bonnar.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Katona (29-28 Katona)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Katona (29-28 Katona)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Katona (29-28 Katona)

The Official Result
Brad Katona def. Cody Gibson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Cody expects Katona to win by decision regardless of opponent. He notes Gibson is the better fighter but has a knee injury, and if Rico wins, Katona still wins. He sees Katona as a talented favorite.

"Katona wins decision probably competitive Katona will be a big uh a little too big of a favorite but he's talented he wins"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Daniel Levi leans toward Brad Katona, believing he should be favored but is not confident. He notes that Katona fights close decisions and that Gibson has a seven-inch reach advantage and is four inches taller. Levi thinks Gibson is live at plus money, especially if he can keep the fight standing and use his reach. He mentions that Gibson had a knee injury on The Ultimate Fighter and wants more information on that.

Gibson would interest at plus 200
"I'm gonna lean towards Katona I mean I think he should be favored but it's just not gonna surprise me to see a guy like Cody Gibson"
LOSS vs Hunter Azure
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Sep 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Hunter Azure 0 21 of 60 35% 40 of 83 3 of 12 25% 0 0 6:23
Brad Katona 0 41 of 118 34% 55 of 133 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Hunter Azure 0 5 of 12 41% 16 of 25 0 of 5 0% 0 0 3:05
Brad Katona 0 8 of 22 36% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Hunter Azure 0 8 of 23 34% 13 of 30 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:36
Brad Katona 0 18 of 46 39% 23 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Hunter Azure 0 8 of 25 32% 11 of 28 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:42
Brad Katona 0 15 of 50 30% 21 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Hunter Azure 21 of 60 35% 18 of 51 2 of 7 1 of 2 17 of 54 4 of 6 0 of 0
Brad Katona 41 of 118 34% 25 of 91 11 of 20 5 of 7 33 of 105 6 of 8 2 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Hunter Azure 5 of 12 41% 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 8 3 of 4 0 of 0
Brad Katona 8 of 22 36% 6 of 14 0 of 5 2 of 3 5 of 17 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Hunter Azure 8 of 23 34% 7 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0
Brad Katona 18 of 46 39% 10 of 38 5 of 5 3 of 3 15 of 43 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Hunter Azure 8 of 25 32% 7 of 19 1 of 5 0 of 1 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brad Katona 15 of 50 30% 9 of 39 6 of 10 0 of 1 13 of 45 0 of 0 2 of 5
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · May 04, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 32 of 56 57% 43 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Brad Katona 0 55 of 102 53% 215 of 274 5 of 9 55% 0 0 8:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 16 of 29 55% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Brad Katona 0 25 of 54 46% 49 of 80 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:18
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 8 of 11 72% 12 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brad Katona 0 7 of 10 70% 114 of 122 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:20
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 8 of 16 50% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brad Katona 0 23 of 38 60% 52 of 72 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 32 of 56 57% 21 of 41 4 of 5 7 of 10 17 of 36 12 of 16 3 of 4
Brad Katona 55 of 102 53% 43 of 85 6 of 10 6 of 7 24 of 65 4 of 5 27 of 32
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 16 of 29 55% 10 of 19 0 of 1 6 of 9 11 of 20 5 of 9 0 of 0
Brad Katona 25 of 54 46% 19 of 43 3 of 7 3 of 4 14 of 40 1 of 2 10 of 12
2 Merab Dvalishvili 8 of 11 72% 5 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 4 5 of 5 2 of 2
Brad Katona 7 of 10 70% 6 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 5
3 Merab Dvalishvili 8 of 16 50% 6 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 12 2 of 2 1 of 2
Brad Katona 23 of 38 60% 18 of 33 2 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 20 3 of 3 13 of 15
WIN vs Matthew Lopez
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Dec 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brad Katona 0 76 of 158 48% 86 of 170 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:13
Matthew Lopez 0 69 of 142 48% 79 of 155 4 of 6 66% 1 0 0:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brad Katona 0 37 of 54 68% 45 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Matthew Lopez 0 28 of 56 50% 30 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:24
2 Brad Katona 0 23 of 50 46% 25 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matthew Lopez 0 18 of 35 51% 20 of 37 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:31
3 Brad Katona 0 16 of 54 29% 16 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Matthew Lopez 0 23 of 51 45% 29 of 57 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brad Katona 76 of 158 48% 40 of 106 12 of 26 24 of 26 67 of 146 4 of 6 5 of 6
Matthew Lopez 69 of 142 48% 41 of 99 17 of 31 11 of 12 65 of 134 3 of 6 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brad Katona 37 of 54 68% 18 of 33 6 of 7 13 of 14 31 of 48 2 of 2 4 of 4
Matthew Lopez 28 of 56 50% 19 of 39 8 of 16 1 of 1 26 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Brad Katona 23 of 50 46% 11 of 32 3 of 8 9 of 10 21 of 47 1 of 1 1 of 2
Matthew Lopez 18 of 35 51% 13 of 26 4 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Brad Katona 16 of 54 29% 11 of 41 3 of 11 2 of 2 15 of 51 1 of 3 0 of 0
Matthew Lopez 23 of 51 45% 9 of 34 5 of 7 9 of 10 21 of 46 1 of 4 1 of 1