UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov Next Fight
Age N/A
Height 5' 6"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 5' 5"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Ariane da Silva
4.05 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
4.4 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.47 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Melissa Gatto
3.47 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
2.67 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.77 TD Avg
27.0% TD Acc.
58.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Ariane da Silva
Moneyline
Caesars +205
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1200
Submission
BetWay +1400
Decision
BetRivers +320
Melissa Gatto
Moneyline
FanDuel -230
KO/TKO
BetRivers +510
Submission
BetRivers +265
Decision
FanDuel +230
Ariane da Silva - Fight History
LOSS vs Wang Cong
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 63 of 176 35% 65 of 178 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:03
Wang Cong 1 143 of 222 64% 147 of 226 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 17 of 41 41% 17 of 41 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Wang Cong 0 46 of 65 70% 48 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ariane da Silva 0 19 of 59 32% 21 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Wang Cong 1 42 of 64 65% 44 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
3 Ariane da Silva 0 27 of 76 35% 27 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Wang Cong 0 55 of 93 59% 55 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 63 of 176 35% 31 of 121 20 of 37 12 of 18 55 of 164 8 of 12 0 of 0
Wang Cong 143 of 222 64% 75 of 148 28 of 31 40 of 43 127 of 206 13 of 13 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 17 of 41 41% 9 of 29 4 of 7 4 of 5 15 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 0
Wang Cong 46 of 65 70% 16 of 34 12 of 12 18 of 19 39 of 58 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 19 of 59 32% 11 of 44 5 of 10 3 of 5 16 of 56 3 of 3 0 of 0
Wang Cong 42 of 64 65% 19 of 39 8 of 8 15 of 17 37 of 59 2 of 2 3 of 3
3 Ariane da Silva 27 of 76 35% 11 of 48 11 of 20 5 of 8 24 of 71 3 of 5 0 of 0
Wang Cong 55 of 93 59% 40 of 75 8 of 11 7 of 7 51 of 89 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Angelo picks Wang Cong but is not fully confident. He acknowledges Ariane Lipski's underrated striking and ability to make it competitive. He thinks Wang's power will add up over time and Lipski will become afraid to engage. He notes the odds are almost 4-to-1 and says he will likely avoid betting on this fight.

Likely to avoid betting on this fight.
"I am going to pick Kong because her power is insane. ... I'm likely going to avoid this fight altogether."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Big Brady picks Wang Cong, citing her high-level striking and the fact that Ariane da Silva has been finished in five of her losses, four by KO. He thinks da Silva doesn't like getting hit and that Cong can finish her on the feet or by mixing in takedowns, as da Silva's ground game is suspect. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Cong by KO in round 2
"I like Kong Wong. I'm going to take Kong Wong to win this fight by second round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Wang Cong is expected to be more effective with her footwork, distance management, and combinations. She will land more effective damage throughout the fight and chip away at Lipski to win on the scorecards.

"I fully expect Wang to be more effective with her footwork, distance management, and combinations. And I ultimately think she can land more effective damage throughout the 15 minutes in this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

The MMA Guru confidently picks Wang Cong, citing her superior kickboxing, power, and ability to finish. He notes Ariane da Silva has submission skills but lacks power and is reactionary. He predicts Wang Cong wins by TKO in the first round, dominating exchanges. He mentions Wang Cong's only loss was a fluke submission she would win 8 out of 10 times.

Finish prediction: first round TKO.
"I'm going with Wang Kong. She's just good at fighting, you know."
Submission (brabo choke) R3 2:28 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 42 of 92 45% 43 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 36 of 84 42% 130 of 218 3 of 5 60% 1 0 5:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 13 of 46 28% 20 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
2 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 9 of 20 45% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 17 of 28 60% 83 of 120 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:42
3 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 6 of 10 60% 27 of 38 1 of 3 33% 1 0 1:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jasmine Jasudavicius 42 of 92 45% 26 of 65 15 of 23 1 of 4 41 of 88 1 of 4 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 36 of 84 42% 29 of 76 5 of 6 2 of 2 24 of 70 1 of 1 11 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 27 of 57 47% 17 of 39 10 of 15 0 of 3 27 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 13 of 46 28% 10 of 42 2 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jasmine Jasudavicius 9 of 20 45% 4 of 13 4 of 6 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 17 of 28 60% 15 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 16 0 of 0 10 of 12
3 Jasmine Jasudavicius 6 of 15 40% 5 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 11 1 of 4 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 6 of 10 60% 4 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Angelo is confident Jasmine wins, citing her superior wrestling and pressure. He disagrees with those who think Ariane da Silva is a bad matchup for Jasmine. He notes Ariane has improved but Jasmine is a better wrestler than Karini Silva, who outwrestled Ariane. He expects Jasmine to get takedowns and win, though he wishes the line were more affordable. He may add action as the week goes on.

"Jasmine wins this fight she is minus 184 wish she was a little more affordable than that but I am confident she gets the takedown confident she gets the win and we'll have some action on her as the week …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Big Brady picks Jasmine Jasudavicius to win by decision, but with some concern. He acknowledges that Ariane da Silva has improved her takedown defense significantly, stuffing many takedowns in recent fights. However, Brady believes Jasudavicius is a much better wrestler than those opponents and will get takedowns. He notes that if Jasudavicius can't get takedowns, she is in trouble on the feet, but he leans toward her wrestling winning out.

"I'll take Jasmine here to win this fight by decision could get sketchy she's probably going to eat some big shots but I'll take Jaz deicious to win this fight by decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Cody picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, expecting her to spam takedowns and rack up control time. He notes that Ariane Lipski has been taken down frequently in the past, and Jasudavicius's wrestling should be enough to win a decision. He acknowledges that Jasudavicius's striking is not elite but believes her grappling will be the difference.

"I expect her to go out there spam take Downs get rack up a whole bunch of control time and probably win a very convincing decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Daniel Vreeland picks Jasmine Jasudavicius to pace Ariane da Silva, but notes it's a pass at the betting line. He acknowledges da Silva's recent improvements in maturity and output, but believes Jasudavicius's relentless pace and pressure will be too much. Vreeland expects Jasudavicius to push the pace and potentially get a finish, though he's not confident enough to bet at -225.

"I'm picking Jasmine jici is to come out here and the pace Arian lipsky"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Jasudavicius will put a grind on da Silva, put her in uncomfortable positions, chain wrestling attempts together, and win on the scorecards. Da Silva's defensive grappling improvements were against lower-level grapplers, and she struggled against more impressive grapplers like Jasudavicius.

"Jasudavicius should be able to put that grind on her put her in uncomfortable positions chain wrestling attempts together and win this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul picks Ariane Lipski as an underdog, arguing that her takedown defense has improved significantly since joining American Top Team, stuffing 21 straight takedown attempts before facing Karine Silva. He believes Lipski is the better striker and can keep the fight standing, where she has the advantage. He also notes that Jasudavicius struggled to takedown Tracy Cortez and was out struck in that fight.

"I take a flyer on the underdog here for lipsky."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

The Guru picks Jasmine Jasudavicius over Ariane da Silva, noting Jasudavicius's recent decent performances and size advantage. He questions da Silva's consistency and believes Jasudavicius's momentum and reach will carry her to a win.

"I'm going to go Jasmine judicious little bit bigger as well little bit rangier that goes a long way in these lower divisions"
LOSS vs Karine Silva
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karine Silva 0 42 of 81 51% 89 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:06
Ariane da Silva 0 27 of 75 36% 53 of 120 5 of 6 83% 0 0 7:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karine Silva 0 7 of 13 53% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Ariane da Silva 0 4 of 17 23% 15 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:58
2 Karine Silva 0 9 of 18 50% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 39 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:39
3 Karine Silva 0 26 of 50 52% 47 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Ariane da Silva 0 13 of 38 34% 15 of 42 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karine Silva 42 of 81 51% 12 of 37 22 of 29 8 of 15 31 of 66 8 of 11 3 of 4
Ariane da Silva 27 of 75 36% 8 of 29 9 of 32 10 of 14 21 of 65 2 of 4 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karine Silva 7 of 13 53% 4 of 8 2 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 4
Ariane da Silva 4 of 17 23% 0 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 3 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Karine Silva 9 of 18 50% 1 of 8 4 of 5 4 of 5 9 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 10 of 20 50% 4 of 10 3 of 7 3 of 3 6 of 14 0 of 1 4 of 5
3 Karine Silva 26 of 50 52% 7 of 21 16 of 20 3 of 9 19 of 41 7 of 9 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 13 of 38 34% 4 of 12 4 of 18 5 of 8 11 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ariane Lipski vs. Karine Silva

Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Lipski catches a kick and lands the first punch. Silva lands a jumping kick to the body. Lipski uses her jab and lands a straight right to the body. Silva gets a takedown and winds up in half-guard. Elbows from Silva land. Lipski pushes her opponent off. Silva engages on the ground again and gets into side control. Lipski gives up her neck as Silva is cranking. Lipski gets out of the submission attempt. Silva gets pushed off again, and Lipski gets up. Lipski lands leg kicks and gets into guard. Lipski finishes the round on top, landing a few elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 2
The two fighters exchange leg kicks on the feet. Lipski uses her jab and goes high with a kick. Silva catches a leg and is forced to give it up after Lipski throws a bunch of punches. Silva is able to throw Lipski to the ground. Silva is in half-guard and in full control of Lipski. Some nice elbows are landing for Silva. Lipski goes for a leg lock. Silva defends well. Silva gets to her feet and lands a few leg kicks. Lipski with a good upkick. Silva lands a damaging body kick as Lipski gets up. Silva drags Lipski back to the ground and has her back. Lipski defends well and survives the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 3
Lipski comes out swinging as she knows she needs a finish. Silva slows the pace with some leg kicks. Lipski answers with some body kicks. Silva catches a kick and goes for a takedown. Lipski rips her hands free, but the two are still clinched against the fence. A few knees land for Lipski, who then backs away. Silva throws a front kick. Halfway through the round. Lipski landing more kicks but isn't putting Silva in any danger. They clinch again. Silva is just holding on and not doing any damage. Lipski gets back to her feet, although Silva manages to scramble and take the back. Silva looks for a rear-naked choke as the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva (30-27 Silva)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)

The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Ariane Lipski via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28); R3, 5:00.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo bet Karine Silva at +118 underdog, noting she has 17 wins all by stoppage. He believes she can get the fight to the ground and find a submission or ground-and-pound. He gives credit to Ariane da Silva for improving her grappling and takedown defense, but thinks Karine's finishing ability will be the difference. He is confident she wins and notes the line has since flipped to -140.

Bet: at +118 (now -140)
"I bet bet her at plus 118 ... karini Silva is the pick and hopefully you were a premium member so you saw that bet before the line moved"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Cody picks Lipski as a dog, citing her improved takedown defense (stuffed 19 of 20 attempts in last three fights) and volume striking. He believes she can survive Silva's early submission threats and win a decision, noting she has never been submitted.

"I think Arion lipsky is heading in the right direction now"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel is impressed by Silva's 100% finish rate (17 finishes) and her dangerous ground game, including a rare leg lock. He thinks her striking is hittable but she's confident because she's dangerous on the ground. He believes she will finish Lipski, noting that in women's MMA, such finishing upside is huge.

"I think karini Silva is going to come out here and finish Arian lipsky"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Ariane da Silva has shown improved takedown defense, stuffing all 25 takedown attempts in her last five fights. She should be able to keep the fight standing and use her striking to beat Karine Silva. Karine Silva is dangerous on the ground but has holes in her striking. I lean Ariane da Silva by decision.

"I am going to lean ever so slightly to the lipsky side though as I think that she has a good enough takedown defense game here to keep this fight upright"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Paul also picks Lipski, highlighting her three-fight winning streak as an underdog since moving to American Top Team. He notes her takedown defense and ability to keep fights standing, and expects her volume to outwork Silva over three rounds.

"I'll take lipsky as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The MMA Guru picks Karine Silva, highlighting her consistent finishing ability with five or six submissions in a row. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's wins as over weak competition and notes her submission game is more opportunistic. He believes Silva's ability to force submissions will be the difference, and predicts she will get past da Silva.

"I'm going Karen Silva consistency recent levels of consistency from Karen Silva have superseded ariani lipsky's overall somewhat goodness in fights"
WIN vs Casey O'Neill
Submission (armbar) R2 1:18 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 31 of 74 41% 32 of 75 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Casey O'Neill 0 64 of 127 50% 86 of 152 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 28 of 68 41% 29 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Casey O'Neill 0 39 of 93 41% 44 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
2 Ariane da Silva 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Casey O'Neill 0 25 of 34 73% 42 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 31 of 74 41% 17 of 57 3 of 3 11 of 14 29 of 72 2 of 2 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 64 of 127 50% 45 of 106 16 of 18 3 of 3 37 of 95 9 of 11 18 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 28 of 68 41% 15 of 52 3 of 3 10 of 13 26 of 66 2 of 2 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 39 of 93 41% 21 of 73 15 of 17 3 of 3 29 of 81 9 of 11 1 of 1
2 Ariane da Silva 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 25 of 34 73% 24 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 14 0 of 0 17 of 20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Angelo leans Ariane da Silva, noting her recent evolution in grappling and takedown defense. He contrasts her upward trajectory with Casey O'Neill's recent struggles. He fears O'Neill's size but picks Ariane, comparing the fight to Veronica Hardy vs. Jamie Lorth.

"I'm going to lean ariani here... Ariana lipsky is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by second-round TKO, citing a phenomenal stylistic matchup. He notes O'Neill's vicious ground and pound and believes she will take down Lipski and dominate, as Lipski has been finished 4 times and struggles with ground pressure. Brady acknowledges Lipski's recent wins stuffing takedowns but thinks O'Neill's wrestling and volume will be too much. He also mentions O'Neill could knock Lipski out on the feet.

"give me Casey O'Neal to finish this fight by second round at TKO in this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Cody picks Lipski as an underdog, citing her recent improvements at American Top Team and her wins as an underdog over JJ Aldrich and Melissa Gatto. He notes that O'Neill's wrestling has not been as effective against higher-level competition and that Lipski can keep the fight standing and make it competitive. Cody believes Lipski's volume and clinch elbows could be key, and at +165 she offers value.

"I'm gonna to enact the CF doop model here again Cody Arion lipsky is the pick for me"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Lucrative James picks Ariane Lipski outright. He notes that Lipski's takedown defense has improved dramatically, and if she stuffs takedowns, she will piece Casey O'Neill up on the feet. He believes Casey's path is only via takedown and ground control, but Lipski's improved defense and the value on her as an underdog make her the side. He has already bet Lipski.

"I like Lipski in this spot... I'm picking Ariane Lipski outright."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

The host, who previously faded Lipski, is now on board after her recent improvements. He believes Lipski has a technical striking advantage, better takedown defense, and growing confidence. He expects Lipski to keep the fight standing, land the more damaging blows, and win a decision. He notes that O'Neill is still raw and untested, and that Lipski can provide a similar type of loss as Jennifer Maia did to O'Neill.

Lipski by decision
"I'm officially on the lipsky train and I feel like again somebody is still as raw as untested is you know I don't want to say that fully you know O'Neal she's faced some decent names but she's still yet …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Paul picks O'Neill but is not confident. He notes that O'Neill has good volume and takedowns against lower-level competition, but her wrestling has been less effective against better opponents. He believes O'Neill should use her wrestling to win but is hesitant because Lipski has improved. Paul expects a competitive fight and thinks O'Neill by decision is likely, but he is not fully confident.

Casey O'Neill by decision
"I'm gonna go end up going with O'Neal by decision yeah just don't feel super confident about it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Ariane Lipski, citing O'Neill's higher volume striking and physicality. He notes O'Neill threw nearly 400 significant strikes against Roxanne Modafferi, while Lipski's output is lower. He expects a decision win for O'Neill.

"I'm GNA go with Casey O'Neal over ariani lipin... Casey O'Neal puts a way higher volume out there and in women's MMA if it's close they might just just look at the person that's throwing more punches"
WIN vs Melissa Gatto
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 66 of 149 44% 81 of 166 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Melissa Gatto 0 85 of 186 45% 100 of 201 0 of 7 0% 0 0 2:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 16 of 49 32% 18 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Melissa Gatto 0 28 of 53 52% 28 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
2 Ariane da Silva 0 26 of 46 56% 39 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Melissa Gatto 0 33 of 66 50% 45 of 78 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:16
3 Ariane da Silva 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Melissa Gatto 0 24 of 67 35% 27 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 66 of 149 44% 28 of 101 27 of 36 11 of 12 53 of 131 12 of 15 1 of 3
Melissa Gatto 85 of 186 45% 39 of 117 34 of 50 12 of 19 70 of 165 15 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 16 of 49 32% 3 of 30 9 of 15 4 of 4 14 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Melissa Gatto 28 of 53 52% 13 of 31 10 of 15 5 of 7 25 of 49 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 26 of 46 56% 10 of 27 12 of 14 4 of 5 18 of 37 8 of 9 0 of 0
Melissa Gatto 33 of 66 50% 11 of 37 17 of 21 5 of 8 23 of 52 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Ariane da Silva 24 of 54 44% 15 of 44 6 of 7 3 of 3 21 of 49 2 of 2 1 of 3
Melissa Gatto 24 of 67 35% 15 of 49 7 of 14 2 of 4 22 of 64 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) based on her last performance against JJ Aldrich, where her hands and wrestling looked great. He acknowledges the logical pick is Melissa Gatto due to Lipski's history of being outgrappled, but he goes against logic. He suggests a plus 3.5 point buy on the scorecard for Lipski as a safer bet.

plus 3.5 points on judges scorecard (potential bet)
"I'm going to go against the logic I'm going to pick lipsky like she looked so good against JJ Aldridge"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Big Brady picks Melissa Gatto to win by first-round submission. He notes Gatto has improved significantly, with better striking and takedown defense, and has power. He points out that Ariane da Silva (Lipski) has been dominated on the ground by fighters like Montana De La Rosa and Antonina Shevchenko, and Gatto's top game is dangerous. He expects Gatto to get on top and finish early.

first round submission
"give me got her to win this fight by first round I'll say sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody sees Lipski as a live underdog. He notes Gatto's low volume (17 significant strikes in nearly 3 rounds against Eubanks) and poor defensive wrestling. Lipski showed improved wrestling at ATT and has high volume (101 significant strikes against Aldrich). Cody thinks if Lipski can stuff takedowns, she wins the striking battle. He also notes Lipski is only 29 and improving.

"I too will take lip ski all right"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Daniel confidently picks Gatto, citing her superior heart, durability, and grappling. He notes Lipski's history of quitting when pressured and her poor defensive grappling, while Gatto showed toughness against Tracy Cortez, reversing positions and landing takedowns. He believes Gatto's chin and submission threat are key, and that Lipski's recent win over JJ Aldrich is overrated. However, he missed the opening line (-150) and won't bet at -230, but expects Gatto to win.

missed the line at -150; Gatto minus 230
"I definitely favorite gato here it's just you know all you guys that came in on that minus 150. that minus 170. you all did your job"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Paul is tempted by the CF dog model. He notes Lipski's last performance against Aldrich was impressive and that Gatto's wins are over low-level competition. He questions if Lipski has turned the corner and thinks the line is off. Paul believes Lipski has a legitimate chance.

"I am tempted for uh to to enact the CF dot model on this one Cody is has ariani lipsky turned the corner here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The Guru picks Melissa Gatto, noting her impressive win over Ariane Lipski via front kick to the body and her submission win over Karol Rosa. He acknowledges her loss to Tracy Cortez but believes she has improved during her year off. He predicts a submission off her back, possibly an armbar.

submission off her back, armbar
"all the logic in the world is pointing me towards Melissa gato here"
WIN vs JJ Aldrich
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 101 of 204 49% 113 of 216 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:19
JJ Aldrich 0 49 of 99 49% 56 of 106 0 of 12 0% 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 35 of 67 52% 40 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 11 of 20 55% 14 of 23 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:25
2 Ariane da Silva 0 35 of 73 47% 35 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 20 of 39 51% 20 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ariane da Silva 0 31 of 64 48% 38 of 71 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:19
JJ Aldrich 0 18 of 40 45% 22 of 44 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 101 of 204 49% 47 of 134 42 of 56 12 of 14 77 of 176 24 of 28 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 49 of 99 49% 42 of 92 4 of 4 3 of 3 45 of 95 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 35 of 67 52% 17 of 42 15 of 20 3 of 5 22 of 53 13 of 14 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 11 of 20 55% 9 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 35 of 73 47% 15 of 48 15 of 20 5 of 5 30 of 68 5 of 5 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 20 of 39 51% 18 of 37 1 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ariane da Silva 31 of 64 48% 15 of 44 12 of 16 4 of 4 25 of 55 6 of 9 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 18 of 40 45% 15 of 37 2 of 2 1 of 1 17 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Angelo is very confident in JJ Aldrich, describing her as a solid, dependable grinder who will stick to a game plan and grind forward. He notes she is dangerous nowhere but good everywhere, and despite breaking his rule against betting on women's MMA, he places a 1.5 unit bet at -220. He believes she will win without taking risks.

1.5 unit bet at -220
"I've got a one and a half unit bet that's a lot of money on JJ Aldridge but I got a one and a half unit bet at minus 220. I'm just very confident in her ability to go out …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Big Brady is confident in JJ Aldrich, noting she is the much more technical striker with better footwork. He highlights Lipski's huge hole in her ground game, calling it 'atrocious' and noting she has been finished on the mat multiple times. Brady expects Aldrich to mix takedowns and eventually get a late TKO, though he acknowledges decision is more likely.

win by TKO in round 3
"I like Aldrich to have success in the Striking mixing the takedowns win minutes on the on the feet on the mat and I'm gonna say Aldridge eventually gets a TKO here late late fight uh late third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Cody picks Aldrich, citing her training and striking. He notes da Silva's lack of improvement and thinks Aldrich can finish or win a decision. He is cautious about the price but sees Aldrich as a safe parlay piece.

"we're gonna take JJ Aldridge she'll probably be somewhere around like the second or third lot I don't want her on the second"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Connor picks Aldrich confidently, citing her superior striking, takedown ability, and experience. He notes that Lipski has poor takedown defense and tends to focus on punching when pressured, which Aldrich can exploit with clinch work and takedowns. He believes Aldrich is a level above Lipski's previous competition.

Aldrich opened at unknown, now -380 to -450; Lipski +285 to +350. Connor says the odds feel appropriate.
"Aldrich is just too good. Lipsky has yet to beat anybody at this level who even approaches JJ Aldrich's level of ability."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Aldrich's footwork, combination striking, and experience should be too much for Lipski. Lipski has struggled against higher-level competition and has been finished in her losses. Aldrich can win on the feet or even on the ground. I expect Aldrich to box her way to a decision victory, controlling the distance and landing the cleaner shots.

"I think a combination of aldrich's output footwork and ability to stay safe at distance is going to overwhelm lipsky here and I think Aldrich boxes her way to a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Paul picks Aldrich, noting her striking advantage and improved wrestling. He thinks she can win standing or on the ground, but is wary of the -450 price. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds prop as interesting.

under 2.5 rounds +165
"JJ Aldridge can win this fight standing she can win this fight to the ground"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich, calling her underrated. He notes she trains with top fighters and performed decently against Blanchfield before getting guillotined. He believes Aldrich is more well-rounded and tougher, and will win a decision by out-grappling and making Ariane da Silva gun-shy.

by decision
"I'm definitely gonna side with JJ Aldridge here being the better more well-rounded fighter overall and a bit tougher"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Zane picks Aldrich, noting that she is a consistent, well-rounded fighter who should handle Lipski's aggressive but flawed style. He points out that Lipski's best win is against Luana Carolina, who is messy, and that Aldrich's takedown threat and counter-striking will be too much.

"Aldrich is just too good. Lipsky has yet to beat anybody at this level who even approaches JJ Aldrich's level of ability."
TKO (punches) R1 1:05 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Priscila Cachoeira 1 20 of 35 57% 20 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Ariane da Silva 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Priscila Cachoeira 1 20 of 35 57% 20 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Ariane da Silva 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Priscila Cachoeira 20 of 35 57% 15 of 27 4 of 5 1 of 3 6 of 17 0 of 0 14 of 18
Ariane da Silva 4 of 15 26% 3 of 12 0 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Priscila Cachoeira 20 of 35 57% 15 of 27 4 of 5 1 of 3 6 of 17 0 of 0 14 of 18
Ariane da Silva 4 of 15 26% 3 of 12 0 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Priscila Cachoeira vs. Ariane Lipski
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lipski (-195), Cachoeira (+165)

Round 1
This is another rescheduled fight from last week’s event, with both women moving up a division to keep the bout intact. After a rough start to her UFC tenure, Brazil’s Cachoeira is building momentum with three wins in her last four outings. A former KSW champ, Lipski has been up and down since signing with the Las Vegas-based promotion. Herb Dean is in charge of the contest. Lipski catches Cachoeira with a counter right. Cachoeira lands a right of her own. “Zombie Girl” moves forward to force the brawl she desires and Lipski obliges. That turns out to be the wrong decision, as a left hook from Cachoeira backs up “The Violence Queen.” Cachoeira forces the issue, landing more shots.
Lipski is firing back but leaving herself exposed, and eventually the onslaught from Cachoeira drops her opponent — puncutated by a right to the chin. Cachoeira smells blood, and a barrage of punches and hammerfists on the canvas on a defenseless Lipski brings the show to a close.

The Official Result
Priscila Cachoeira def. Ariane Lipski via TKO (Punches) R1 1:05
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Priscila Cachoeira

Angelo switched his pick from Lipski to Cachoeira due to Lipski's weight cut issues and medical problems. He notes Cachoeira is the more dangerous fighter with heavy pressure and power, and Lipski may not be at 100% after cutting weight twice in a short period.

"i'm full on switching my pick i'm going priscilla cachera here she was always the more dangerous fighter in this matchup"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Big Brady picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) to win by first-round submission. He notes that Cachoeira absorbs an absurd 7.91 significant strikes per minute with 45% striking defense, calling her the definition of blocking punches with her face. Lipski hits hard and has a good submission game, and Cachoeira has been submitted twice in the UFC. Brady believes Lipski will take the fight down and submit her easily in the first round.

first round submission
"i think lipski takes the path of release resistance get this fight down to the mat and submits catch aware in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Cody picks Lipski, criticizing Cachoeira's technique and durability. He notes Cachoeira missed weight and had lingering COVID symptoms, which are bad signs. Cody thinks Lipski is better standing and in the clinch, and he cannot bet Cachoeira.

"there's just no world that exists that i want to bet priscilla cachuera it just does it's not happening"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Priscila Cachoeira

Paul picks Cachoeira, having already bet her at +150 and a round three prop at 20-1. He acknowledges she missed weight and had COVID issues but still believes she can win. Paul is sticking with his bet despite the line moving against him.

Cachoeira round three +2000; Cachoeira moneyline +150
"i'm already on catch awara plus 150 the market is moving against me i'm already on catch aware uh 20 to one in round three"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

The host picks Ariane Lipski (Ariane da Silva) over Priscila Cachoeira, citing Cachoeira's weak UFC wins and losses to fighters like Molly McCann and Luana Carolina. He expects Lipski to take the fight to the ground and secure a submission in the first or second round, referencing Lipski's previous dominant submission win over Luana Carolina who also beat Cachoeira.

submission in first or second round
"i can see ariana lipski getting this one to the ground and finding herself a submission victory in the first or second round"
WIN vs Mandy Böhm
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 2 87 of 194 44% 116 of 233 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:26
Mandy Böhm 0 36 of 108 33% 47 of 123 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 17 of 50 34% 44 of 83 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:04
Mandy Böhm 0 12 of 26 46% 17 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
2 Ariane da Silva 1 35 of 72 48% 36 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Mandy Böhm 0 12 of 41 29% 15 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ariane da Silva 1 35 of 72 48% 36 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:01
Mandy Böhm 0 12 of 41 29% 15 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 87 of 194 44% 27 of 106 53 of 73 7 of 15 64 of 157 15 of 23 8 of 14
Mandy Böhm 36 of 108 33% 18 of 84 12 of 16 6 of 8 31 of 101 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 17 of 50 34% 7 of 34 9 of 13 1 of 3 14 of 43 3 of 5 0 of 2
Mandy Böhm 12 of 26 46% 2 of 12 6 of 10 4 of 4 9 of 21 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 35 of 72 48% 10 of 36 22 of 30 3 of 6 25 of 57 6 of 9 4 of 6
Mandy Böhm 12 of 41 29% 8 of 36 3 of 3 1 of 2 11 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ariane da Silva 35 of 72 48% 10 of 36 22 of 30 3 of 6 25 of 57 6 of 9 4 of 6
Mandy Böhm 12 of 41 29% 8 of 36 3 of 3 1 of 2 11 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) confidently. He thinks she is a little better everywhere and has a huge experience edge (20 fights vs 7). He notes that Mandy Böhm is undefeated but has no specific elite skill to lean on, and that Lipski's losses came on her back, which he doesn't think will happen here. He placed a 1-unit bet on the moneyline at -121.

Moneyline bet at -121, 1 unit
"ariana lipsky is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

Big Brady picks underdog Mandy Böhm, believing her grappling will be the difference. He notes Ariane Lipski has poor takedown defense (42%) and a weak ground game, having been finished on the mat multiple times. He predicts Böhm will exploit this and win by second-round TKO or submission.

second round TKO or submission
"i'm going to take the underdog and mandy baum"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

Cody picks Mandy Böhm, citing her superior striking, reach advantage, and underrated wrestling. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's poor takedown defense and low output, calling her 'fraudulent.' Cody notes that Böhm has a year layoff but believes she has the skills to win if she shows up in shape.

"i'm gonna go with mandy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Daniel Levi leans with Ariane Lipski. He notes Lipski has lost twice in a row but those losses were to high-level fighters (Montana De La Rosa, Antonina Shevchenko). He thinks Mandy Böhm is green, with issues getting off the fence and off her back. He credits Böhm's toughness and clinch elbows but believes Lipski's experience will prevail. He says he's not confident enough to bet Lipski but picks her to get back on track.

"i do have to lean with the experience of lipski i just think that experience counts for a lot in this game"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Preet reluctantly picks Lipski because she is the much better striker and has trained at ATT. However, he is concerned about her takedown defense. He thinks Lipski will overwhelm Böhm on the feet and get a TKO in the second round. He likes Lipski by TKO at +500 and under 2.5 rounds at +185.

Ariane Lipski by TKO +500, Under 2.5 rounds +185
"I do think she eventually finds that tko in the second round here by over one overwhelming mandy bomb on the feet uh and getting her out of there lipski by tko is plus 500"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ariane da Silva was dominated on the ground by Antonina Shevchenko, who is not a strong grappler. He believes Böhm's clinch work and cage control will be key. Paul says he cannot bet anyone who gets 'throttled' by Shevchenko.

"i can't bet anybody who gets absolutely throttled in the wrestling department by antonina shivchenko it's just not gonna happen so i'm with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

The MMA Guru picks Mandy Böhm over Ariane Lipski, noting Böhm's technical skill, athleticism, and undefeated record. He criticizes Lipski's inconsistency against fundamentally sound opponents. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Böhm.

"i'm going to go with mandy bomb here and she's also evens with ariana lipsky"
Melissa Gatto - Fight History
LOSS vs Dione Barbosa
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dione Barbosa 0 30 of 67 44% 108 of 154 3 of 6 50% 1 1 6:06
Melissa Gatto 0 33 of 67 49% 64 of 109 3 of 12 25% 0 1 4:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dione Barbosa 0 16 of 37 43% 35 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:15
Melissa Gatto 0 21 of 48 43% 27 of 59 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:11
2 Dione Barbosa 0 9 of 20 45% 34 of 51 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:20
Melissa Gatto 0 5 of 7 71% 23 of 30 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:55
3 Dione Barbosa 0 5 of 10 50% 39 of 45 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:31
Melissa Gatto 0 7 of 12 58% 14 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dione Barbosa 30 of 67 44% 19 of 53 9 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 49 5 of 7 9 of 11
Melissa Gatto 33 of 67 49% 14 of 40 9 of 15 10 of 12 30 of 62 2 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dione Barbosa 16 of 37 43% 12 of 31 2 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 30 3 of 5 1 of 2
Melissa Gatto 21 of 48 43% 7 of 26 7 of 13 7 of 9 20 of 45 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dione Barbosa 9 of 20 45% 6 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
Melissa Gatto 5 of 7 71% 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Dione Barbosa 5 of 10 50% 1 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 5
Melissa Gatto 7 of 12 58% 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dione Barbosa vs. Melissa Gatto
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barbosa (-145); Gatto (+125)

Round 1
The night presses on as a pair of women’s flyweights meet in hopes of keeping or lifting their respective promotional record above .500. Barbosa (8-4, 2-2 UFC) would like a victory to elevate it over that midpoint mark, while bantamweight part-timer Gatto (9-2-2, 3-2 UFC) is looking for success back in her natural weight class. Referee Chris Tognoni draws the charge for this preliminary contest, one that does not open with a glove touch.
The ladies measure one another in the early going, testing out their jabs while not committing to much else. Gatto opens up a bit more with her overhand right, and when she finally scores one, she has to back off when a one-two pinpoints her nose. Gatto slings her right hand down the pipe, faking a takedown shot and ultimately walk into a spinning back kick counter. Barbosa gets her attention with a left hand after the kick connects, and she is greeted with a stern right hand. Barbosa shakes it off and offers a low kick followed by two punches, and the two start trading hands in a brief exchange with Barbosa landing at the beginning and ending. Gatto works her way behind her right hand, and she shoots in for takedown that is shut down before it can come close to materializing.
Barbosa bullies the taller woman to the wall, pressing her shoulder tightly before kneeing her a couple times to the stomach. Barbosa trips Gatto up to drag her to the floor, and Gatto springs back up with the fencing behind her. Barbosa stomps Gatto’s toes, and Gatto breaks off with a knee. Gatto takes a punch and times the spin she sees coming to grab Barbosa from behind and wrangle her to the mat. Gatto advances to an awkward position that places her in leglock danger, but she is close to securing the mount position. Barbosa hacks with elbows off her back, and she uses butterfly hooks to stave Gatto from claiming a dominant posture. Gatto lowers herself down maintain control, and Barbosa’s leg slides up an around to snatch up an armbar. Gatto leans to her side to free the pressure on her limb, and she drills Barbosa with a number of hammerfists as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gatto
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gatto
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gatto

Round 2
Gatto assumes control of the center of the cage to get going first, pushing out her jab a few times before snatching up a Barbosa low kick to trip her up and take her to the mat. Barbosa flips her all the way over to wind up on top, and Gatto is stuck flat on her back. Gatto keeps a high guard when Barbosa postures up, but Barbosa does not fall into a trap and stands back up. Gatto turns to her knees to stand back up, and Barbosa blasts her with an illegal soccer kick to the neck and chin that knocks Gatto completely out. Barbosa walks off celebrating, as if she thinks that she has won the fight, while Gatto is splayed out lifelessly in an eerie scene reminiscent of Maycee Barber getting knocked out last week. As a medical professional or two rush in to tend to Gatto, she comes to and has to be told what happened. The replay official flips the light to signal that they are going to use instant replay to review the footage, but it appeared that Gatto’s knee was down right before she took the soccer kick that rendered her unconscious. Tognoni discusses his options with the officiating team, and he deducts one point from Barbosa for the foul. Shockingly, the fight somehow continues, even though Gatto was knocked unconscious from the strike. This is complete nonsense. This fight should be over, period. What happened to fighter safety being the primary concern of officials? Gatto, who apparently is back with her wits again, runs forward at the restart to take the fight down. Barbosa is grounded for a time before fighting her way back up, and she turns the tables to take Gatto down.
Gatto works her way up after absorbing some hammerfists, and she breaks out of the clinch to take a spinning back fist on the chin. Gatto shakes it out and tackles Barbosa to the floor. Thankfully, with Gatto on top, it means she is not currently absorbing much brain trauma after being knocked out from the illegal soccer kick that only resulted in a single point being deducted. Barbosa fights off her back with a high guard in hopes of catching Gatto in something, and she grips hold of a triangle armbar but is punched out of it. The round somehow ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 9-9
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 9-9
Tyler Treese scores the round: 9-9

Round 3
Between rounds, it is explained that the officials and medical staff determined Gatto was able to continue a fistfight despite already getting knocked all the way out. What are rules anymore? It does not take long for the ladies to go for grappling, and Barbosa succeeds in taking Gatto to the mat. Gatto keeps her left leg wrapped on the side in hopes of setting something up, and Barbosa ignores it and starts elbowing her in the side. Gatto turns to her side with a two-on-one wrist control of Barbosa, who counters her by rolling all the way over to snatch up an armbar.
Gatto turns over to stack Barboza up, squeezing her elbow and forearm on the throat while exerting as much pressure down as she can to stifle the submission. Barbosa cannot hold the submission much longer as she is getting squished, and Gatto breaks out of it and busts her in the chops with a strong right hand. Barbosa sits up and flips her opponent over to her back, and she starts hunting for a leglock. Gatto sits up to stop it, and she tries to muscle Barbosa over and use a kimura grip to reverse position. She succeeds in turning Barbosa over and keeps control of the limb, and she steps over the body with her rear leg to establish herself in top control. As the ladies roll around on the mat looking for positional advantages, Gatto snags hold of the left arm of her opponent to hunt for her own armbar. Barbosa elbows Gatto on the back of the calf, and this fight somehow makes it 15 minutes. This is not a good day for the Nevada State Athletic Commission. A draw may be in play, but that depends on the scoring of the first round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (28-28)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (28-28)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (28-28)

The Official Result
Dione Barbosa def. Melissa Gatto via Majority Decision (28-28, 29-27, 29-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Angelo picks Dione Barbosa, citing her superior takedown ability as a judoka. He notes that Melissa Gatto has poor takedowns and that Barbosa can close the distance, take her down, and control on top. He worries about potential judging bias similar to Barbosa's last loss but believes Barbosa will win a close decision.

"Dion Barbosa is going to be the pick. We probably end up in a 2928 type situation."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Big Brady picks Melissa Gatto as a slight underdog. He notes Barbosa has power and can get takedowns early, but fades as the fight goes on. He likes Gatto's cardio, volume, and kicks, and expects her to take over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for Gatto.

Gatto by decision
"I'll take Gatto here. I like the cardio, I like the kicks, I like the volume."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Cody picks Gatto, citing her youth, improved skills, and ability to scramble and strike. He expects her to win a decision, as Barbosa's grappling-heavy style may not score well.

"It's got by decision for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Connor leans toward Barbosa, agreeing that she is more disciplined. He notes that Gatto's footwork is worse and she tends to collapse when pressured, leading her to wrestle. Barbosa is as big as Gatto and a better grappler, which should neutralize Gatto's advantages.

Barbosa opened +105, now -127; Gatto opened -125, now +107.
"Barboza actually has some a little bit of boxing footwork... Gatto just doesn't know how to like keep herself lined up."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

James leans toward Melissa Gatto as the underdog, citing her striking kicks and cardio advantage, while noting Barbosa's tendency to tire. He admits he hasn't done tape study and is unsure about the grappling dynamics. He predicts a decision win for Gatto but emphasizes low confidence and the need for further analysis.

"I'll say Melissa Gate. She's the underdog. I lean to the underdog in a fight like this where I think it's very close."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The host picks Gatto as a dog, citing her damage-based striking and grappling advantage. He notes Barbosa's recent loss where control wasn't enough, and trusts Gatto's volume and damage to win on the scorecards despite a two-year layoff. He sees a good stylistic matchup for Gatto.

"I feel like Gateau is the perfect dog to start off this card."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Paul leans towards Gatto, noting her two-year layoff may have helped her improve. He expects her to win a close decision due to her striking and scrambling.

"I do have Melissa God. I think Melissa is a decent fighter."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Dione Barbosa

The MMA Guru picks Dione Barbosa but seems hesitant, acknowledging that her win over Diana Belbita isn't impressive. He notes that Melissa Gatto has a body kick KO win but lost to Tracy Cortez. He thinks Barbosa is slightly more well-rounded but doesn't sound fully convinced.

"I think she'll win this one, though. I think she'll beat Melissa Gatto, okay? Don't grill me on it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Zane leans toward Barbosa, noting she is more disciplined and has better footwork. He thinks Gatto has good tools but doesn't stick to them, and tends to win when opponents make catastrophic mistakes. Barbosa's boxing footwork and grappling should allow her to keep the fight in her favor.

Barbosa opened +105, now -127; Gatto opened -125, now +107.
"I'm tempted to pick Barboza. I think she's a little more... she's just a more disciplined fighter."
WIN vs Tamires Vidal
TKO (punch to the body) R3 0:37 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melissa Gatto 0 15 of 29 51% 50 of 66 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:53
Tamires Vidal 0 30 of 52 57% 120 of 163 2 of 2 100% 1 0 6:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melissa Gatto 0 3 of 3 100% 32 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Tamires Vidal 0 6 of 9 66% 72 of 85 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:33
2 Melissa Gatto 0 11 of 20 55% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
Tamires Vidal 0 21 of 35 60% 45 of 70 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:25
3 Melissa Gatto 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tamires Vidal 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melissa Gatto 15 of 29 51% 7 of 21 2 of 2 6 of 6 14 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tamires Vidal 30 of 52 57% 13 of 30 16 of 20 1 of 2 22 of 40 1 of 5 7 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melissa Gatto 3 of 3 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tamires Vidal 6 of 9 66% 4 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Melissa Gatto 11 of 20 55% 5 of 14 2 of 2 4 of 4 10 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tamires Vidal 21 of 35 60% 9 of 21 11 of 12 1 of 2 15 of 25 1 of 5 5 of 5
3 Melissa Gatto 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tamires Vidal 3 of 8 37% 0 of 2 3 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tamires Vidal

Angelo is shocked that Melissa Gatto is the biggest favorite on the card at -820 despite being on a two-fight losing streak, moving up in weight, and having poor takedown accuracy (0 for 7 in her last fight). He believes Tamires Vidal is big, strong, and has a grappling advantage. He plans to bet on Vidal, watching the line movement to decide when to place the bet.

bet on Vidal (timing based on line movement)
"I already thought vial was going to win let alone at these odds I'm going to continue to watch this"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Cody views this as a clear bounceback fight for Gatto, who has lost two close decisions to top competition. He notes Vidal has massive limitations in every area: poor footwork, no head movement, low volume, and no power. Gatto is stronger, more technical, and a better wrestler. Cody believes Gatto will dominate on the ground and get back in the win column.

"Gatto is way strong at 125 that won't finish at 135 she's a way more polished way more powerful way more technical Striker than Vidal."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Vidal is reckless with wide hooks and was out-grinded in her last fight. Gatto is the toughest opponent Vidal has faced and should provide a ton of resistance. Expects Gatto to pressure Vidal, use the clinch, take her down, and eventually find a finish. The line should be closer to -400 or -500.

Inside the distance for Gatto.
"I think the minus 300 on Melissa got to is more than worthy here as I think that she should be closer to minus 400 maybe evenus 500"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Paul sees Gatto as much more powerful and technical than Vidal. He notes Vidal's only UFC win came via flying knee against a low-level opponent, and she was dominated by Montserrat Ruiz. Paul expects Gatto to manhandle Vidal with her grappling and physicality, despite moving up a weight class.

"It's goto for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Gatto over Tamires Vidal, despite going against his rule of picking 'thems' in women's MMA. He notes that Gatto had a close fight with Tracy Cortez and that Vidal was taken down three times by a smaller opponent in her last fight. He expects Gatto to use her reach and grappling to control Vidal and win by decision.

"I'm going to go with Melissa GTO here I think she'll be able to take down um tamires vdal"
LOSS vs Ariane da Silva
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 66 of 149 44% 81 of 166 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Melissa Gatto 0 85 of 186 45% 100 of 201 0 of 7 0% 0 0 2:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 16 of 49 32% 18 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Melissa Gatto 0 28 of 53 52% 28 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
2 Ariane da Silva 0 26 of 46 56% 39 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Melissa Gatto 0 33 of 66 50% 45 of 78 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:16
3 Ariane da Silva 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Melissa Gatto 0 24 of 67 35% 27 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 66 of 149 44% 28 of 101 27 of 36 11 of 12 53 of 131 12 of 15 1 of 3
Melissa Gatto 85 of 186 45% 39 of 117 34 of 50 12 of 19 70 of 165 15 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 16 of 49 32% 3 of 30 9 of 15 4 of 4 14 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Melissa Gatto 28 of 53 52% 13 of 31 10 of 15 5 of 7 25 of 49 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 26 of 46 56% 10 of 27 12 of 14 4 of 5 18 of 37 8 of 9 0 of 0
Melissa Gatto 33 of 66 50% 11 of 37 17 of 21 5 of 8 23 of 52 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Ariane da Silva 24 of 54 44% 15 of 44 6 of 7 3 of 3 21 of 49 2 of 2 1 of 3
Melissa Gatto 24 of 67 35% 15 of 49 7 of 14 2 of 4 22 of 64 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) based on her last performance against JJ Aldrich, where her hands and wrestling looked great. He acknowledges the logical pick is Melissa Gatto due to Lipski's history of being outgrappled, but he goes against logic. He suggests a plus 3.5 point buy on the scorecard for Lipski as a safer bet.

plus 3.5 points on judges scorecard (potential bet)
"I'm going to go against the logic I'm going to pick lipsky like she looked so good against JJ Aldridge"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Big Brady picks Melissa Gatto to win by first-round submission. He notes Gatto has improved significantly, with better striking and takedown defense, and has power. He points out that Ariane da Silva (Lipski) has been dominated on the ground by fighters like Montana De La Rosa and Antonina Shevchenko, and Gatto's top game is dangerous. He expects Gatto to get on top and finish early.

first round submission
"give me got her to win this fight by first round I'll say sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody sees Lipski as a live underdog. He notes Gatto's low volume (17 significant strikes in nearly 3 rounds against Eubanks) and poor defensive wrestling. Lipski showed improved wrestling at ATT and has high volume (101 significant strikes against Aldrich). Cody thinks if Lipski can stuff takedowns, she wins the striking battle. He also notes Lipski is only 29 and improving.

"I too will take lip ski all right"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Daniel confidently picks Gatto, citing her superior heart, durability, and grappling. He notes Lipski's history of quitting when pressured and her poor defensive grappling, while Gatto showed toughness against Tracy Cortez, reversing positions and landing takedowns. He believes Gatto's chin and submission threat are key, and that Lipski's recent win over JJ Aldrich is overrated. However, he missed the opening line (-150) and won't bet at -230, but expects Gatto to win.

missed the line at -150; Gatto minus 230
"I definitely favorite gato here it's just you know all you guys that came in on that minus 150. that minus 170. you all did your job"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Paul is tempted by the CF dog model. He notes Lipski's last performance against Aldrich was impressive and that Gatto's wins are over low-level competition. He questions if Lipski has turned the corner and thinks the line is off. Paul believes Lipski has a legitimate chance.

"I am tempted for uh to to enact the CF dot model on this one Cody is has ariani lipsky turned the corner here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The Guru picks Melissa Gatto, noting her impressive win over Ariane Lipski via front kick to the body and her submission win over Karol Rosa. He acknowledges her loss to Tracy Cortez but believes she has improved during her year off. He predicts a submission off her back, possibly an armbar.

submission off her back, armbar
"all the logic in the world is pointing me towards Melissa gato here"
LOSS vs Tracy Cortez
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tracy Cortez 0 36 of 66 54% 70 of 102 2 of 3 66% 1 1 7:54
Melissa Gatto 0 30 of 73 41% 49 of 95 3 of 6 50% 1 1 3:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tracy Cortez 0 11 of 16 68% 23 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 1 3:16
Melissa Gatto 0 7 of 20 35% 14 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:38
2 Tracy Cortez 0 9 of 23 39% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:35
Melissa Gatto 0 15 of 35 42% 25 of 47 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:04
3 Tracy Cortez 0 16 of 27 59% 27 of 39 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:03
Melissa Gatto 0 8 of 18 44% 10 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tracy Cortez 36 of 66 54% 25 of 51 6 of 9 5 of 6 14 of 37 2 of 2 20 of 27
Melissa Gatto 30 of 73 41% 25 of 61 3 of 7 2 of 5 27 of 69 0 of 1 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tracy Cortez 11 of 16 68% 8 of 13 0 of 0 3 of 3 5 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 9
Melissa Gatto 7 of 20 35% 6 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 3 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tracy Cortez 9 of 23 39% 4 of 16 4 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 18 1 of 1 3 of 4
Melissa Gatto 15 of 35 42% 13 of 30 2 of 4 0 of 1 14 of 33 0 of 1 1 of 1
3 Tracy Cortez 16 of 27 59% 13 of 22 2 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 12 1 of 1 11 of 14
Melissa Gatto 8 of 18 44% 6 of 14 1 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Angelo picks Tracy Cortez based on her wrestling, expecting her to grind out a decision. However, he admits his bet will be on Melissa Gatto to win inside the distance (decision no action), indicating a lack of full confidence in Cortez. He notes Cortez's layoff and Gatto's submission threat.

Bet on Melissa Gatto to win inside the distance (decision no action) at BetOnline
"she's the pick because of the wrestling my my bet is actually going to be on gatto so my pick is tracy cortez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Big Brady picks Tracy Cortez to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges that Gatto has shown impressive striking and grappling, but her takedown defense is poor. Cortez will look to take Gatto down and control her, and Brady believes she will succeed in getting takedowns. However, Gatto is dangerous off her back with submissions, so Cortez will have to fight off submissions for 15 minutes. Brady thinks Cortez will win by controlling the fight on the ground, but he would not count out Gatto completely.

decision
"I'm gonna take cortez to take godo down in each and every round controller for the majority of the fight but god is going to most definitely have her moments this is a very interesting fight I like both fighters …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Cody picks Tracy Cortez, but emphasizes monitoring the scales. He notes Cortez's wrestling advantage and that she trains at Fight Ready MMA. Cody believes Cortez can get takedowns and stay on top, avoiding Gatto's submissions. He thinks Gatto's guard is active but Cortez's wrestling and pace will prevail. Cody is confident if Cortez makes weight.

"i tend to go with the wrestler so i'm gonna go with tracy cortez at home"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Daniel Levi leans toward Melissa Gatto as an underdog, citing her cleaner striking, power, and opportunistic submissions. He expects Cortez to have early wrestling success but thinks Gatto can survive and turn the fight in later rounds. He is worried about Cortez's top control but sees value in Gatto at plus money. He has not bet yet, noting he missed better lines.

Daniel considers a Gatto submission prop but has not bet. He mentions the line moved from +170 to +130.
"I do like the potential in Gato. It's just this fight is one of those that I truly believe is gonna come down to the wire and oftentimes in fights like that I like to take the dog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The host picks Melissa Gatto but is not betting the fight due to volatility. He notes Cortez's strong wrestling but concerns about her weight miss and cardio. He highlights Gatto's impressive UFC performances, her ability to work from bottom, and her vicious striking. He expects Gatto to pressure, attack the body, and possibly find a submission or win via striking. He acknowledges Cortez will land takedowns but thinks Gatto will do enough to win.

"i am picking her to win she will be my prediction to win this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Paul picks Melissa Gatto as an underdog at +147. He believes the fight is more 50/50 and that Gatto's grappling is legit, with an active guard and submission threats. He fears Cortez's wrestling could control the fight, but thinks Gatto's strength and jiu-jitsu could lead to a submission. Paul acknowledges the Arizona home cooking factor but took the dog shot.

"i took the underdog shot on melissa gatto uh plus 147."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Gatto as an underdog, citing her underrated skills, youth, and physical advantages. He notes Gatto has a reach advantage, submission ability, and finishing power, as seen in her wins over Carol Rosa and Sijara Eubanks. He criticizes Cortez for pitter-patter striking and lack of finishing ability. He predicts Gatto will win on the feet and then secure a submission, possibly an armbar in the second round.

"i'm going with the underdog melissa garter moving on up the card"
TKO (body kick and punches) R3 0:45 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melissa Gatto 0 14 of 45 31% 32 of 68 1 of 4 25% 0 1 6:05
Sijara Eubanks 1 17 of 34 50% 64 of 91 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melissa Gatto 0 8 of 18 44% 23 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 1 4:30
Sijara Eubanks 0 2 of 5 40% 20 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Melissa Gatto 0 4 of 11 36% 7 of 15 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:35
Sijara Eubanks 0 9 of 13 69% 37 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:53
3 Melissa Gatto 0 2 of 16 12% 2 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sijara Eubanks 1 6 of 16 37% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melissa Gatto 14 of 45 31% 10 of 37 4 of 8 0 of 0 5 of 33 2 of 2 7 of 10
Sijara Eubanks 17 of 34 50% 11 of 27 2 of 2 4 of 5 13 of 29 2 of 2 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melissa Gatto 8 of 18 44% 8 of 16 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 10
Sijara Eubanks 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Melissa Gatto 4 of 11 36% 1 of 8 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0
Sijara Eubanks 9 of 13 69% 7 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1
3 Melissa Gatto 2 of 16 12% 1 of 13 1 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sijara Eubanks 6 of 16 37% 3 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Angelo picks Melissa Gatto with a half-unit bet at +190. He believes Gatto is a young up-and-comer with real potential, while Eubanks is a .500 fighter whose cardio issues may not be fully resolved. He notes that Gatto has good striking, can set up takedowns, and is aggressive on top. However, he cautions that if Eubanks' cardio holds up, she is a giant beast at 125 and could be a problem. He emphasizes that Gatto must stay on top and not pull guard.

0.5 units on moneyline at +190
"i like melissa gatto i put a half a unit on the money line i got it at plus 190"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sijara Eubanks

Big Brady picks Sijara Eubanks by decision, citing her experience, BJJ black belt, and path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He has concerns about Eubanks' age (36) and cardio if the fight extends. He notes Gatto's poor takedown defense and submission-over-position style, but acknowledges Gatto looked improved in her last fight. He says he may not bet Eubanks due to cardio worries.

decision
"I'm gonna pick cru banks to win by decision but um I don't think I'm gonna be betting her"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Sijara Eubanks

Cody leans Eubanks due to her BJJ, size, and physicality. He notes her wrestling is solid for the division and she is aggressive. However, he worries about her cardio and weight cuts. Gatto is more wily and could pressure late. Cody says it's not a high-confidence play and wants to see weigh-ins.

"I think I would lean towards eubanks it's not something I'm going to put finalized in bam bam but yeah as far as the show picks right now I would go you banks"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Daniel Levi picks Melissa Gatto as an underdog. He likes Gatto's scrappiness, aggression, and improvement, especially her arm submissions. Levi is concerned that Eubanks's jiu-jitsu could neutralize Gatto's sub attempts, but he believes Gatto's tenacity and desire to prove herself after a layoff will carry her. He thinks Gatto can make it close if she doesn't get held down for two rounds, and sees value in the plus money.

Gatto by submission; underdog play
"I'm gonna end up actually taking the dog because I think she's got a little bit more tenacity more ferocity."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Jacob is extremely confident in Melissa Gatto, calling it his lock of the week. He placed 5 units on her moneyline at +146, 4 units on her inside the distance (decision no action) at +170, and 2 units on under 2.5 rounds at +165. He believes Eubanks cannot bully Gatto, who has good striking and aggressive grappling. He compares it to the Miranda Maverick fight where the favorite was dominated. Jacob thinks Gatto will finish Eubanks, possibly by submission, and that the odds are moving fast.

5 units moneyline at +146, 4 units inside distance decision no action at +170, 2 units under 2.5 rounds at +165, 1 unit Gatto by submission at +1000
"i've never been so confident in a lock of the week pick in my entire life"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sijara Eubanks

The host picks Eubanks by decision, highlighting her superior wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He notes that Gatto plays off her back and Eubanks should be able to control her on top. He likes the decision prop at +150, as Eubanks is not a proactive finisher.

Eubanks by decision (+150)
"I like me some eubanks i like her at minus 160 but i even like her prop here at decision uh via decision which i currently believe is plus 150"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul does not give a clear pick for this fight. He mentions that Eubanks is the rightful favorite but notes concerns about her cardio and weight cuts. He says to pay attention to weigh-ins. He does not commit to a pick.

"I think I would lean towards eubanks it's not something I'm going to put finalized in bam bam but yeah as far as the show picks right now I would go you banks want to see the weigh-ins though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Gatto as an upset winner, predicting a first-round armbar submission. He notes Gatto has good jiu-jitsu and submitted Carol Rosa with a kimura. He thinks Eubanks is getting older and may entertain the ground game too much. He sees Eubanks ending up on top but getting caught in an armbar from bottom.

first round armbar submission
"i'm gonna go with melissa gato in an upset win here"
TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melissa Gatto 0 43 of 91 47% 59 of 110 0 of 3 0% 0 2 2:27
Victoria Leonardo 0 70 of 121 57% 96 of 148 1 of 5 20% 0 1 1:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melissa Gatto 0 13 of 27 48% 27 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 2 1:59
Victoria Leonardo 0 13 of 21 61% 36 of 45 1 of 4 25% 0 1 1:48
2 Melissa Gatto 0 30 of 64 46% 32 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
Victoria Leonardo 0 57 of 100 57% 60 of 103 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melissa Gatto 43 of 91 47% 14 of 58 13 of 17 16 of 16 38 of 84 3 of 4 2 of 3
Victoria Leonardo 70 of 121 57% 42 of 83 12 of 19 16 of 19 63 of 110 6 of 10 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melissa Gatto 13 of 27 48% 4 of 17 3 of 4 6 of 6 9 of 22 2 of 2 2 of 3
Victoria Leonardo 13 of 21 61% 7 of 12 2 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 14 3 of 6 1 of 1
2 Melissa Gatto 30 of 64 46% 10 of 41 10 of 13 10 of 10 29 of 62 1 of 2 0 of 0
Victoria Leonardo 57 of 100 57% 35 of 71 10 of 14 12 of 15 54 of 96 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Victoria Leonardo

Angelo picks Leonardo, citing Gatto's long layoff (2.5 years due to USADA suspension) and that Gatto is a grappler who likes to fight off her back. He thinks Leonardo will be on top and win a decision. He calls Leonardo a solid underdog pick.

"I really like Victoria Leonardo in this fight... there's too many unknowns with Melissa Gatto, she's been out for too long."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Victoria Leonardo

Big Brady is hesitant on this fight due to many question marks. He thinks Melissa Gatto is sub-or-bust and has poor takedown defense, while Victoria Leonardo is more active and likely the better striker. He picks Leonardo to win by decision but warns that Gatto could pull off an armbar from guard. He advises staying away from betting this fight.

armbar from guard possibility; stay away from betting
"I will pick her to win, I'll pick her to win by decision but honestly this has armbar from guard written all over it."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Cody picks Gatto, citing the narrative of Brazilian fighters improving after long layoffs. He notes her BJJ skills and potential improvements in wrestling. He thinks she can get the fight to the ground and submit Leonardo.

Gatto by submission
"i actually just got to take that shot in the dark and i'm going to end up going with gato here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Daniel Levi picks Melissa Gatto to win by opportunistic submission, citing that Victoria Leonardo is a punching bag on the feet and has been stopped multiple times. He notes that Gatto is young and may have improved during her USADA suspension, and that Leonardo's takedown attempts could lead to submissions. He does not put much stock into the suspension for a young fighter and believes Gatto has the skills to finish.

Says Gatto by opportunistic submission
"I'ma go Gatta opportunistic submission somewhere along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Victoria Leonardo

Gatto is a BJJ specialist who relies on takedowns, but Leonardo has a purple belt and good enough grappling to nullify submissions. Leonardo is stronger, has better striking, and better cardio. The longer the fight goes, the more success Leonardo will have, likely finishing Gatto in the third round via ground and pound.

Leonardo by KO/TKO +550; Leonardo in round 3 +1475; under 2.5 rounds
"I think that the longer that this fight goes Leonardo will have more and more success and I think that ultimately we'll actually see Leonardo get her out of there probably in the third round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick. He is surprised by the pick'em line and notes the lack of tape on both fighters.

TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Gatto to win by first-round submission. He highlights Gatto's undefeated record (6-0 with two draws) and her win over Carol Rosa, who is now on a four-fight win streak in the UFC. He criticizes Victoria Leonardo's lack of technical skill and poor chin, noting she has been knocked out twice recently. He predicts Gatto will submit Leonardo, possibly off her back.

first round submission
"i'm going to call her first round submission for melissa gatto here over leonardo"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) based on her last performance against JJ Aldrich, where her hands and wrestling looked great. He acknowledges the logical pick is Melissa Gatto due to Lipski's history of being outgrappled, but he goes against logic. He suggests a plus 3.5 point buy on the scorecard for Lipski as a safer bet.

plus 3.5 points on judges scorecard (potential bet)
"I'm going to go against the logic I'm going to pick lipsky like she looked so good against JJ Aldridge"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Big Brady picks Melissa Gatto to win by first-round submission. He notes Gatto has improved significantly, with better striking and takedown defense, and has power. He points out that Ariane da Silva (Lipski) has been dominated on the ground by fighters like Montana De La Rosa and Antonina Shevchenko, and Gatto's top game is dangerous. He expects Gatto to get on top and finish early.

first round submission
"give me got her to win this fight by first round I'll say sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Cody sees Lipski as a live underdog. He notes Gatto's low volume (17 significant strikes in nearly 3 rounds against Eubanks) and poor defensive wrestling. Lipski showed improved wrestling at ATT and has high volume (101 significant strikes against Aldrich). Cody thinks if Lipski can stuff takedowns, she wins the striking battle. He also notes Lipski is only 29 and improving.

"I too will take lip ski all right"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Daniel confidently picks Gatto, citing her superior heart, durability, and grappling. He notes Lipski's history of quitting when pressured and her poor defensive grappling, while Gatto showed toughness against Tracy Cortez, reversing positions and landing takedowns. He believes Gatto's chin and submission threat are key, and that Lipski's recent win over JJ Aldrich is overrated. However, he missed the opening line (-150) and won't bet at -230, but expects Gatto to win.

missed the line at -150; Gatto minus 230
"I definitely favorite gato here it's just you know all you guys that came in on that minus 150. that minus 170. you all did your job"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul is tempted by the CF dog model. He notes Lipski's last performance against Aldrich was impressive and that Gatto's wins are over low-level competition. He questions if Lipski has turned the corner and thinks the line is off. Paul believes Lipski has a legitimate chance.

"I am tempted for uh to to enact the CF dot model on this one Cody is has ariani lipsky turned the corner here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The Guru picks Melissa Gatto, noting her impressive win over Ariane Lipski via front kick to the body and her submission win over Karol Rosa. He acknowledges her loss to Tracy Cortez but believes she has improved during her year off. He predicts a submission off her back, possibly an armbar.

submission off her back, armbar
"all the logic in the world is pointing me towards Melissa gato here"