Karol Rosa vs Yana Santos

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Karol Rosa	0	33 of 58	56%	190 of 224	2 of 3	66%	2	0	11:25
Nora Cornolle	0	27 of 47	57%	75 of 98	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Karol Rosa	0	18 of 34	52%	29 of 47	0 of 1	0%	0	0	2:03
Nora Cornolle	0	24 of 37	64%	45 of 59	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
2	Karol Rosa	0	7 of 11	63%	77 of 84	1 of 1	100%	2	0	4:53
Nora Cornolle	0	0 of 3	0%	6 of 9	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
3	Karol Rosa	0	8 of 13	61%	84 of 93	1 of 1	100%	0	0	4:29
Nora Cornolle	0	3 of 7	42%	24 of 30	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Karol Rosa	33 of 58	56%	25 of 47	6 of 8	2 of 3	14 of 35	6 of 6	13 of 17
Nora Cornolle	27 of 47	57%	15 of 33	4 of 4	8 of 10	17 of 36	10 of 11	0 of 0

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Karol Rosa	18 of 34	52%	10 of 24	6 of 7	2 of 3	12 of 28	6 of 6	0 of 0
Nora Cornolle	24 of 37	64%	14 of 26	4 of 4	6 of 7	14 of 27	10 of 10	0 of 0
2	Karol Rosa	7 of 11	63%	7 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 3	0 of 0	6 of 8
Nora Cornolle	0 of 3	0%	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Karol Rosa	8 of 13	61%	8 of 12	0 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 4	0 of 0	7 of 9
Nora Cornolle	3 of 7	42%	1 of 4	0 of 0	2 of 3	3 of 6	0 of 1	0 of 0

Nora Cornolle vs. Karol Rosa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosa (-180); Cornolle (+150)

Round 1
The final women’s match of the evening comes at 135 pounds, in a wide-open division where a contender likely need only amass three or four wins to get a crack at gold. Rosa (18-7, 7-4 UFC) has alternated wins and losses in her last eight outings while hearing the final bell for the entirety of her UFC run. On the other side of the equation, French muay thai practitioner Cornolle (9-2, 3-1 UFC) has only claimed one career win on the scorecards. They will tangle under the watchful eye of referee Kerry Hatley. Gloves are touched before they are traded.
Cornolle gets right to business, walking Rosa down with a body kick and a few punches. Rosa’s back hit the wall, and she fires right back to force the Frenchwoman back. Cornolle resets and lands a low kick, hopping away from a counter to connect with one more. A brief clinch leads to nothing, so Rosa reaches out with a right hand. Cornolle does the same, following with a left and then backing off. Cornolle sits down on a hard low kick, getting countered with two punches upstairs. Cornolle tries for a standing hammerfist, and Rosa tags her with counters as she circles away. Cornolle splits the guard with a right hand, and the two tie up as Rosa pushes her to the wall. Rosa changes levels but is stood up, and Cornolle frames off with an elbow. Cornolle plants her shin on Rosa’ lead leg, and she sways back to evade a looping right hand.
Cornolle has another leg kick countered with three punches up top, and Rosa follows with a one-two but the French striker has her guard up in time. Cornolle initiates a clinch, and Rosa turns her about and jams her up against the fence. Rosa ties up Cornolle’s leg for a trip attempt, but she does not get it. They knee one another on the inside and Cornolle tries to loop big punches when she gains a modicum of space. Rosa keeps her high and tight, kneeing her a few more times even as Cornolle has her elbow smushed in to the Brazilian’s face. Cornolle forces the break with her elbows, and she gets to walking Cornolle down and elbows her in the cheek. The clinch is engaged in the middle of the cage, where Cornolle delivers some knees to the body and is pressed to the fence. Cornolle escapes thanks to her elbows once more, and swelling is growing fast on Rosa’s left cheek. Cornolle knees her foe in the face twice as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cornolle
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Cornolle
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Cornolle

Round 2
Cornolle stalks her foe down to get going, putting hands right in Rosa’s face. Rosa responds immediately with a takedown shot, putting the Frenchwoman on her back in seconds. Cornolle hits her back and defends with a kimura, keeping a two-on-one wrist lock on Rosa’s left arm. Rosa uses her free right hand to smack Cornolle in the side to little effect, and she switches to elbow that land with small but growingly impactful thuds.
Cornolle tries to sit up, but Rosa gloms onto her and pushes her flat to her back. Rosa steps into full mount, and she fastens an arm-triangle mount that starts to smother the woman named “Wonder.” Rosa releases the grip to land some body shots, and she adjusts her arms again. When she does not secure it, she switches back to light punches to the side. Rosa stays heavy rather than sitting up to unload with power, and when she does, Cornolle sits up. Rosa flirts with a rear-naked choke that Cornolle defends without issue, but Rosa is still dominating her threatening with something or other. Rosa grasps hold of a brute force rear-naked choke that is on the nose, and she lets it go so she does not gas her arms out. Rosa bludgeons with ground strikes until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rosa

Round 3
The two women come out swinging, with Cornolle trying to pay Rosa back from the last round. Rosa goes back to her grappling quickly, tackling the Frenchwoman to the floor with relative ease and crawling on top of her into half guard. Rosa presses her shoulder down heavily on the side of Cornolle’s neck, grinding out her opponent rather than sitting up to inflict damage. Rosa scores a few pitter-patter body shots as she exerts top pressure, and Cornolle slashes and hacks at her off her back with stern elbows. The Brazilian hops to the other side, still in half guard, and Cornolle looks to her corner for answers.
Rosa loops her right arm beneath Cornolle’s neck and pushes her shoulder down on the windpipe for a one-armed arm-triangle choke, keeping Cornolle stuck on her back with no escape. Rosa stifles Cornolle from getting out, following her every twist and turn with the proper counter to remain on top. Cornolle tries to kick off with upkicks, and even lands an illegal one as Hatley lightly admonishes her for this. Rosa sits on top of her foe, bopping her with hammerfists until Cornolle turns to her side. Rosa tries for some kind of choke as she wraps her arms around the Frenchwoman, and she lets Cornolle turn over so she can work her over with punches. Rosa continues swinging, landing some to the back of the head as she turns it up in the last seconds. When time expires, the only question will be whether Rosa earned 10-8 scores in Rounds 2, 3 or both. The Brazilian keeps her decision streak intact, having gone the distance in all 12 of her UFC outings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Rosa)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-8 Rosa (29-27 Rosa)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Rosa)

The Official Result
Karol Rosa def. Nora Cornolle via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-27, 29-27)

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Connor picks Rosa, noting that Cornolle's only effective tool is clinch striking, and Rosa should be able to avoid that by using her range and volume. He acknowledges Rosa's inconsistency but believes even on a bad night she can outwork Cornolle, who has a very narrow path to victory.

"I think Hossa can pull it out as well, even on a bad night too."

MMA Vivisection

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Zane also picks Rosa, emphasizing that Cornolle's game is one-dimensional and Rosa has the tools to keep the fight at range. He notes that only Jacqueline Cavalcanti has beaten Cornolle by fighting technically at distance, and Rosa can replicate that. Zane warns that Rosa could fall into Cornolle's clinch, but believes she is unlikely to get out-wrestled or out-paced.

"I think so too. I do. She's unlikely to get out wrestled. She's unlikely to get out paced."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Ailín Pérez

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Ailín Pérez	0	53 of 112	47%	120 of 182	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Karol Rosa	0	62 of 131	47%	81 of 155	2 of 8	25%	0	0	4:15

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Ailín Pérez	18 of 25	72%	48 of 56	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Karol Rosa	13 of 23	56%	21 of 33	1 of 4	25%	2:08
2	Ailín Pérez	11 of 33	33%	45 of 68	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Karol Rosa	16 of 41	39%	27 of 53	1 of 3	33%	1:50
3	Ailín Pérez	24 of 54	44%	27 of 58	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Karol Rosa	33 of 67	49%	33 of 69	0 of 1	0%	0:17

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Ailín Pérez	53 of 112	47%	20 of 67	6 of 11	27 of 34	49 of 105	2 of 5	2 of 2
Karol Rosa	62 of 131	47%	28 of 87	11 of 17	23 of 27	56 of 121	2 of 3	4 of 7

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Ailín Pérez	18 of 25	72%	8 of 14	1 of 2	9 of 9	16 of 22	0 of 1	2 of 2
1	Karol Rosa	13 of 23	56%	10 of 18	1 of 1	2 of 4	9 of 16	2 of 2	2 of 5
2	Ailín Pérez	11 of 33	33%	6 of 24	0 of 1	5 of 8	10 of 31	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Karol Rosa	16 of 41	39%	5 of 25	6 of 10	5 of 6	14 of 38	0 of 1	2 of 2
3	Ailín Pérez	24 of 54	44%	6 of 29	5 of 8	13 of 17	23 of 52	1 of 2	0 of 0
3	Karol Rosa	33 of 67	49%	13 of 44	4 of 6	16 of 17	33 of 67	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Ailin Perez vs. Karol Rosa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosa (-265), Perez (+215)

Round 1
Since making her promotional debut in 2019, Rosa (18-6, 7-3 UFC) has gone to decision in all 10 of her UFC outings. The Brazilian may tie a record if she hears the final bell against Perez (11-2, 4-1 UFC)—but the only decisions for Perez have come when she won the fight. Serving as the only women’s match of the evening, the ladies try to do their division justice and improve on the paltry finish rate that marred last year. They will do so as referee Mike Beltran takes charge of the cage. A fist bump starts the action, and Rosa assumes the center of the cage to get going. Slowly walking towards the Argentinian, Rosa ignores incoming leg kicks so she can let her hands go. Perez charges her, clinching up with a body lock to try for a takedown, and Rosa slides away and breaks free. As she marches forward again, Rosa lets go with a right hand, and Perez times a tackling takedown to put the Brazilian on her back. Landing in half guard, Perez gets right to work with grinding top control. The action stalls out with Perez dragged back to the full guard, as she lands the occasional blow and amassing plenty of control time. Perez passes to half guard on the other side, and Rosa actively pushes off the leg and launches an upkick to make Perez turn away and back off. Rosa punches her way into another exchange, where she stuffs a takedown and flicks out a jab at the end of it. Perez connects with three punches and darts away before getting caught, and she reaches down in hopes of catching a leg kick to attempt a takedown. Rosa tosses her out of the way and hammers the midsection with a right hand, and both ladies reset. Perez times a spinning back fist as Rosa advances, and Rosa gives her back a low kick to think about. Perez attempts high kick, and she fails to check a low kick when planting. Rosa keeps chewing up the lead leg of her opponent, forcing a stance switch. Perez waves on Rosa to come at her, but the round ends before she can.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez

Round 2
Perez leads off the round with peppering low kicks, keeping Rosa at bay early. Rosa jabs her way forward, and she whips a low kick up that appears to slap into Perez’ groin. Beltran calls time, and Perez takes a few seconds before getting back to it. They resume trading leg kicks, and Rosa overswings a right hand that allows Perez to clinch her. Rosa gets out of the tie-up to push out a jab, and she defends a takedown shot with relative ease. Perez paws out a front kick, and she raises her leg in time to stop a low kick from harming her. Rosa keeps her hands up to block a one-two, and she parries a spinning back fist and a body kick while pressing forward. Perez jumps at her with a knee, and Rosa pushes it to the side and punches her in the face. Perez works the body with a kick, and she backs off when a one-two is fired down the pipe. Perez scores a spinning back fist, lands and releases a body kick before Rosa can get to her. Rosa settles down, loops a right hand over the guard, and is out of range before a counter gets to her. Rosa puts two punches on the jaw and pops Perez with a flying knee, but the subsequent takedown attempt slows her down. Rosa defends the first try, but the second effort by the Argentinian leads to her securing top position, landing in half guard. Perez prefers position over offense when getting the fight down, clinging to her foe and softening her up with the occasional blow. Perez hangs on in an arm-triangle setup, only to get bucked back to the guard when it starts getting close. The round ends with both women striking while horizontal, and it might go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez

Round 3
There is a double touch of gloves to begin the last round, and Perez paws out her left hand to start things off. They connect at the same time with alternating single punches, and then back away to reset. Perez scores a low kick and gets popped with a left hook, but it is one-and-done for the Brazilian. Rosa aims an overhand right at the target, and it brushes past “Fiona,” who chambers and fires two kicks in rapid succession. Rosa stalks down her adversary and jackhammers her with an inside low kick that makes Perez stumble and change stances. Perez returns fire with her own calf kick, and Rosa no-sells it and hacks at the front wheel. Rosa ducks a telegraphed spinning back fist and checks a few low kicks while pressing ahead, and her landed leg kick consistently gets Perez’ attention. Two big punches from Rosa force Perez to tie her up, and she cannot hold her for long before Rosa breaks away. Rosa nails the front leg with a kick that makes Perez wince, and some swelling develops above Perez’ left eye. Rosa stays in her foe’s face, keeping just out of range of the flying strikes so she can sit down on left hooks and leg kicks. Perez is compromised but still in the fight, and at the 90-second mark, Rosa does not appear to be aggressive to the point of forcing a finish. Instead, Rosa remains composed, slowly chipping away at either leg and jabbing her way forward. Perez smacks Rosa upside the head with a right hand, and Rosa stalks her around the cage lobbing punches and heavy kicks. Perez pushes her back with front kicks and a stomping kick to the knee, but Rosa decides to take a page out of her playbook and spin to strike. There is no finish, and the bantamweights go the distance to likely set a record for Rosa starting her UFC run with 11 straight decisions.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Perez)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Perez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Perez)

The Official Result
Ailin Perez def. Karol Rosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Ailín Pérez

Angelo picks Ailín Pérez as an underdog, believing her wrestling and forward pressure will be too much for Karol Rosa, who hasn't faced a strong wrestler recently. He notes that Rosa's takedown defense is untested against a wrestler of Pérez's style. He has a small bet on Pérez at +150 and is surprised the odds are widening instead of tightening.

Small bet half a unit on Ailín Pérez at +150; may double down or bet +3.5 rounds for cushion.

"I think aen Perez actually does win this fight I love her as an underdog I have a small little bed on her half a unit"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Ailín Pérez

Cody picks Ailín Pérez as an underdog, citing her wrestling and top control. He notes that Pérez has taken down all her UFC opponents and has improved rapidly at Fortis MMA. Rosa has poor takedown defense and no get-up game once taken down, as seen against Sarah McMahon and Norma Dumont. Cody believes Pérez will take Rosa down, control her, and win rounds. He also mentions that Rosa has no power and all her wins are by decision, so Pérez only needs to win the first two rounds.

No specific prop bet mentioned.

"iien ien Perez sign me up Paul come on"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Ailín Pérez

Daniel picks Pérez for the upset, noting that he has lost money betting on Rosa multiple times. He believes Pérez's relentless takedown attack and improved standup will be key. Daniel thinks if Pérez takes Rosa down, she can win. He mentions that Rosa has poor takedown defense and has faded in fights.

Daniel says he is not trying to lose money on Rosa for a fourth time. He picks Pérez to win.

"I'm gonna go with Eileen Perez for the upset"

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Lucrative James picks Karol Rosa, stating she is the better overall MMA fighter with superior striking, cardio, experience, and grappling. He acknowledges Ailín Pérez's tenacious wrestling and potential to cause problems early, but notes Pérez's poor cardio and striking, which often leads to her fading in round three. James observes that Rosa typically has her best round in the third, while Pérez fades, making a late stoppage or decision win for Rosa likely. He understands the appeal of Pérez as a big underdog due to her grappling, but ultimately favors Rosa's well-rounded game.

"I have to pick Carol Roser in this fight but I understand if you're taking Perez as a massive Underdog just because of the potential that this is women's MMA kind of close fight"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Karol Rosa

The host believes Rosa has a significant striking advantage and can stay upright against Perez's grinding grappling. He expects Rosa to chop away at the lead leg and possibly muster a late finish, but ultimately win on the scorecards.

"I'm going to go with HOSA and HOSA to win this fight on the scorecards"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Ailín Pérez

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Pérez. He notes that if the fight becomes a grappling match, Pérez has the advantage. Paul acknowledges that Pérez's cardio has been problematic in round three, but believes she can win the first two rounds. At plus 210, he sees plenty of value. He also mentions that Rosa has no power, so Pérez can afford to slow down late.

No specific prop bet mentioned.

"at plus 210 they're giving me plenty of meat on the bone too to take a shot there so I'm with you"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Karol Rosa over Ailín Pérez. He argues that Rosa is better at MMA overall, with great takedown defense, ability to get back to her feet, and striking that doesn't look amateurish. He notes Rosa has competed with top division fighters like Irene Aldana and Norma Dumont, and outlanded Aldana. He sees this as a step up for Pérez against a real MMA fighter.

"I'm going to side with Carol Rosa I just think it's the next step in aen Perez's career where she actually faces a female MMA fighter who is good at MMA"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Pannie Kianzad

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Karol Rosa	0	117 of 194	60%	140 of 223	1 of 2	50%	0	0	4:24
Pannie Kianzad	0	92 of 182	50%	138 of 229	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Karol Rosa	42 of 74	56%	42 of 74	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Pannie Kianzad	40 of 80	50%	40 of 80	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Karol Rosa	52 of 84	61%	56 of 88	0 of 0	---	0:24
2	Pannie Kianzad	43 of 78	55%	44 of 79	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Karol Rosa	23 of 36	63%	42 of 61	1 of 2	50%	4:00
3	Pannie Kianzad	9 of 24	37%	54 of 70	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Karol Rosa	117 of 194	60%	70 of 132	8 of 9	39 of 53	100 of 170	16 of 23	1 of 1
Pannie Kianzad	92 of 182	50%	56 of 138	20 of 27	16 of 17	82 of 163	10 of 19	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Karol Rosa	42 of 74	56%	21 of 42	2 of 2	19 of 30	42 of 74	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Pannie Kianzad	40 of 80	50%	18 of 52	13 of 18	9 of 10	39 of 79	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Karol Rosa	52 of 84	61%	33 of 62	1 of 2	18 of 20	49 of 80	3 of 4	0 of 0
2	Pannie Kianzad	43 of 78	55%	33 of 66	5 of 7	5 of 5	39 of 70	4 of 8	0 of 0
3	Karol Rosa	23 of 36	63%	16 of 28	5 of 5	2 of 3	9 of 16	13 of 19	1 of 1
3	Pannie Kianzad	9 of 24	37%	5 of 20	2 of 2	2 of 2	4 of 14	5 of 10	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Pannie Kianzad vs. Karol Rosa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosa (-205), Kianzad (+170)

Round 1
A women’s bantamweight tilt pitting Kianzad (16-8, 5-5 UFC) against Rosa (17-6, 6-3 UFC) closes out the preliminaries and should provide some clarity in terms of mid-card pecking order at 135 pounds. Kianzad enters the Octagon on the heels of back-to-back losses, having fallen back to the .500 mark within the promotion. Beltran administers the law and order. No glove touch. Kianzad jabs to the body. Rosa answers with a leg kick, then another. The impact spins around Kianzad. Another low kick from Rosa, whose game plan comes into view inside the first minute. One-two from Rosa. Inside leg kick from the Brazilian. Kianzad answers with an overhand left, but she eats yet another leg kick. Kianzad doubles up on the jab but misses the target. Rosa cuts loose with a two-punch volley and mixes in an inside leg kick. Jab from Rosa, then a low kick. Kianzad responds with a sharp right hand, followed by a left hook. The Swede now doing all she can to keep her leg out of harm’s way. No luck. Rosa finds the mark with another kick. They exchange in the center. Kianzad fires a three-punch volley, resets and lands a right hand. Leg kick from Rosa. Kianzad goes to throw a kick, loses her balance and hits the deck. Back on the feet, Rosa greets her with a flying knee.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa

Round 2
This could get ugly if Kianzad does not address the kicks. She doubles up on the left hook. Rosa answers with multiple low kicks, then steps into an elbow. They trade in the center. Rosa continues to damage the legs, then opens a cut on the forehead with another elbow. Blood streams down between Kianzad’s eyes. Rosa backs her up with punches, shields herself from the return fire and gets her hands in gear again. Kianzad welcomes her into the clinch with a knee to the ribs. Rosa responds with short-range elbow. Kianzad’s lead leg has swelled to twice its normal size. Rosa lands a short left hook. Jab from Rosa, then a leg kick. Kianzad hops in visible distress. Less than a minute to go. Nice one-two from Kianzad. Rosa answers with a jab and follows it with a leg kick. Kianzad is going to have a hard time going to sleep. Rosa jabs at the end of the middle stanza and closes with a kick.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa

Round 3
They clinch to start the third round. Rosa controls the position and mixes in a few elbows before they separate. Rosa with a one-two. A significant hematoma now developing outside of Kianzad’s right eye. Rosa executes a takedown, likely surprising the Swede. Kianzad scores with short punches and elbows from the bottom. Blood becoming more of an issue for the former Cage Warriors champion. Kianzad gets to a knee, builds a base and gets back to her feet. Halfway home in Round 3. Rosa presses her into the fence and creates enough space to rip some elbows upstairs. Punches follow. Somebody get Kianzad some ice. Rosa continues to crowd her along the cage, bleeding time off the clock. She alternates between clinching and punching. Stellar performance from the Brazilian. They trade knees as the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (30-27 Rosa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (30-27 Rosa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (30-27 Rosa)

The Official Result
Karol Rosa def. Pannie Kianzad—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Angelo picks Karol Rosa due to her insane volume (204 significant strikes in a three-round fight), pressure, and grit. He notes that Pannie is a more technical boxer but will struggle if she's on her back foot against Rosa's volume. He also mentions Rosa has solid takedown offense and defense.

Over 2.5 rounds should be safe but got burned on that last time with Pannie

"HOSA is the pick"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Pannie Kianzad

Cody also picks Kianzad, calling Rosa's style frustrating and noting she doesn't use her BJJ or adjust game plans. He believes Kianzad lands better shots and has a plus number, making her the play. He mentions both have been knocked down by Lena Lansburg, which is a useless but funny stat.

"total doger pass total CF dot model peny kad's got A plus number next to her name that's my pick this week"

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Rosa is the better overall fighter with a more well-rounded game, but her lack of urgency in past fights is a concern. She can win by mixing in grappling behind her striking, but the fight likely goes to a split decision. The line is a bit high; waiting for a better price around -130 to -140 is advised.

Rosa by split decision; maybe taking either woman to win by split decision

"I still am going to lean on the HOSA side here as I think she's the better overall fighter and I'm really hoping that she decides to go to a grappling here behind her striking so she can separate herself …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Pannie Kianzad

Paul picks Kianzad at plus 180, viewing the fight as a coin flip striking affair. He criticizes Rosa's lack of fight IQ, poor takedown defense, and inability to adjust. He notes Kianzad has better striking volume and can land the better shots.

"I took uh I found a plus 180 uh earlier this morning and uh took Penny keed that's uh that's where I'm at here"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Karol Rosa, stating she is more committed to the game and younger than Pannie Kianzad. He does not provide extensive technical analysis but expresses confidence in her dedication and age advantage.

"I'm going to go with Carol Rosa winning that one... I just think she's more committed to the game way more committed to the game"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Irene Aldana

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Irene Aldana	0	145 of 308	47%	145 of 308	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Karol Rosa	0	204 of 350	58%	204 of 350	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Irene Aldana	30 of 88	34%	30 of 88	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Karol Rosa	45 of 89	50%	45 of 89	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Irene Aldana	54 of 109	49%	54 of 109	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Karol Rosa	67 of 108	62%	67 of 108	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Irene Aldana	61 of 111	54%	61 of 111	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Karol Rosa	92 of 153	60%	92 of 153	0 of 1	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Irene Aldana	145 of 308	47%	122 of 276	20 of 28	3 of 4	145 of 308	0 of 0	0 of 0
Karol Rosa	204 of 350	58%	103 of 237	6 of 11	95 of 102	204 of 349	0 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Irene Aldana	30 of 88	34%	23 of 75	5 of 10	2 of 3	30 of 88	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Karol Rosa	45 of 89	50%	11 of 52	2 of 2	32 of 35	45 of 89	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Irene Aldana	54 of 109	49%	48 of 103	5 of 5	1 of 1	54 of 109	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Karol Rosa	67 of 108	62%	37 of 73	1 of 4	29 of 31	67 of 107	0 of 1	0 of 0
3	Irene Aldana	61 of 111	54%	51 of 98	10 of 13	0 of 0	61 of 111	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Karol Rosa	92 of 153	60%	55 of 112	3 of 5	34 of 36	92 of 153	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aldana (-205), Rosa (+170)

Round 1
The winner of this next preliminary affair could posture themselves in line for the next title shot, given the dearth of contenders at 135 pounds. Aldana (14-7, 7-5 UFC) is coming off a deflating defeat to the great Amanda Nunes, while Rosa (17-5, 6-2 UFC) has shifted around from bantamweight to featherweight until the latter disintegrated. Whether this lasts three minutes or three full rounds, referee Jason Herzog has clocked in and is ready for what comes next. There is a sporting glove touch between the women, and Aldana strikes first with a quick jab. Rosa strings two punches and a leg kick together to give something back, and Aldana is right there to pop her with a one-two when that completes. Rosa meanders forward as chants for “Mexico” rain down, and Aldana meets her with a few peppering jabs. Rosa lunges with two more punches and a low kick, and she skirts away from a right hand that zips towards her. Aldana absorbs a few more lead leg kicks, and she gets driven back by the Brazilian with a straight right hand. Aldana sticks out a sharp jab and reddens the nose of her foe with a couple subsequent punches, and Rosa retaliates with a fierce leg kick that spins Aldana around and sits her on her seat momentarily. Aldana gathers her thoughts and tanks two more kicks, and she marches forward putting hands on Rosa. Aldana connects with a solid one-two, but Rosa continues to chop her down like a tree. Less than three minutes in, and Aldana’s left leg is welted on both sides and showing some damage. Rosa does not take her foot off the gas as she continues to work on the boxer’s leg, and Aldana forces responses with long, leaning punches. Rosa’s defense stays effective enough to show little harm from the punches, and she slams her shin on the inside of Aldana’s thigh. Aldana is wearing it, but she bites down on her mouthpiece and connects with numerous punches up top. Rosa chambers and fires more legs kicks, never allowing Aldana to feel comfortable, and Aldana is not bothering to check or do anything about them. Instead, Aldana plods forward, jabbing and dinging Rosa with punches. Rosa, the bridge of her nose cut, pounds on Aldana’s lead leg with kicks on the inside and out. Aldana toughs it out, but every time one lands, her knee nearly buckles. Aldana maintains a stiff upper lip, backing Rosa off with her long, accurate punches. Aldana gets off a right hand, and Rosa rocks her with a head kick shortly thereafter. The horn sounds, with both ladies licking their wounds after five harsh minutes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Rosa

Round 2
The two practically sprint off of their stools to get ready for the second round, and they quickly touch gloves first. Rosa gets right back to bombarding Aldana with ferocious kicks, and Aldana is in her face piecing her up with punches. Rosa gives back punches, in lesser volume, but her kicks make more than up for it. Aldana hops around back and forth to try to get some feeling back in her lead wheel, as Rosa is chopping hard at the inner thigh that is welted and swollen. Rosa uses her leg kicks to open up punches up top, and Aldana continues to fight through the pain and blasts Rosa in the face with a one-two. Aldana punches her way into a long combination, and she tags Rosa with a straight right hand. Rosa chomps down on her gumshield and slings leather right back, but Aldana continues to peck and poke away at her with effective punches. With Rosa’s back against the wall, she has nowhere to go, and Aldana lays into her with long series of punches. Rosa cannot get off kicks when in close range, until Aldana backs off. Rosa falls over when throwing a kick, and Aldana lets her back up so that she can chain punches en masse. Aldana pours it on as Rosa begins to slow, and the right hands from the Mexican draw serious swelling on Rosa’s left eye. Rosa fearlessly trades leather, but Aldana is the far superior pure boxer and does some damage. The Brazilian gets enough space to lob out low kicks, until Aldana crowds her with her fists. Rosa tries to back her off courtesy of a jump knee, and Aldana parries it and comes out firing. Aldana starts kiaiing when landing punches, and Rosa’s face is busted up from taking punishment. Aldana ignores the leg kicks, even when aimed at her calf, and she stings Rosa with a vicious uppercut. Rosa throws caution to the wind and starts brawling, and Aldana takes it to her with several more crisp punches until the horn ends the wild round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldana
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Aldana
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldana

Round 3
The ladies are glad to touch ’em up to begin the last round, and Aldana is fired up. The first punch Aldana throws rocks Rosa, and Rosa takes a quick count of her teeth and absorbs a few more fiery punches. Rosa connects with a few low kicks on the inside and out, and Aldana jabs her way into a blistering exchange. Rosa gets her swollen eye smashed as she kicks Aldana’s leg out, and Aldana’s one-two continues to find its home. Rosa picks up the number of low kicks again, intercepting an advancing Aldana. Aldana rips an uppercut in the midst of a salvo, and Rosa chops her lead leg down like Van Damme kicking the banana tree in “Kickboxer.” Rosa continues her assault of leg kicks, and Aldana finds her mark with head shots and one big one to the body. Aldana busts open the mouse under Rosa’s eye and spams uppercuts, and Rosa is backing off but still trading. This is insane. Aldana may not realize how hurt Rosa is, and she does not target the body as much and continues teeing off up top. Rosa throws back with everything she has, and Aldana drills the liver with a left hand. Aldana starts aiming punches to the body, and she mixes shots up top and down to the midsection. Rosa is tough as a two-dollar steak, bleeding from both eyes and compromised by body shots, but she is still in the fight. Aldana connects again and again with long chains of punches, transforming Rosa’s face into an unrecognizable visage, and Rosa counters with bombs. With 30 seconds left, Rosa decides it is time to start brawling, chin be darned. Aldana walks through leg kicks and busts Rosa in the chops with everything she has. Aldana smashes Rosa’s nose, and blood is leaking out of Rosa’s face from basically everywhere. Rosa may take some steps back, but she does not stop trading furious leather until the bitter end. The final bell sounds, putting an end to a sure-fire “Fight of the Night” winner immediately worthy of “Fight of the Year” consideration. What an absolutely sensational firefight!

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldana (29-28 Aldana)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Aldana (29-28 Aldana)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldana (29-28 Aldana)

The Official Result
Irene Aldana def. Karol Rosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Irene Aldana

Angelo picks Irene Aldana but is hesitant, citing concerns about fighters coming off title losses. He acknowledges Rosa's busy striking and takedown ability, but believes Aldana's size and power should prevail. He does not trust her with his money.

No bet; concerned about post-title loss spiral

"Irene aldana is the pick probably medium level confidence... I don't trust her with my money"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Big Brady picks Karol Rosa as a slight underdog, calling it a close fight. He likes Aldana's striking and power but notes Rosa's youth (7 years younger), high volume (over 5 significant strikes per minute), and improving grappling (brown/black belt in BJJ). Brady believes Rosa can get takedowns, as she has in 5 UFC fights, and potentially win minutes on the mat. He predicts a very close split decision for Rosa.

"I am going to pick the dog here and Carol HOSA to win a very very close split competitive decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Cody picks Rosa, arguing that Aldana's takedown defense is a major liability and that Rosa has the volume and wrestling to win. He notes that Aldana was nearly beaten by Macy Chiasson before landing a lucky upkick, and that Rosa is younger and has shown improvement. Cody believes Rosa can swarm Aldana with volume and mix in takedowns to secure a decision. He is not fully confident but sees Rosa as the dog pick.

"dog number three for me... car Rosa"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Irene Aldana

Daniel Vreeland picks Irene Aldana as his lock, stating that Karol Rosa is in over her head in the striking department and won't get enough grappling going. He thinks the line on Aldana is nice at around -200.

"I'm gonna take uh aren Alana I think Carol Jose is in over her head here"

MMA Gambling Podcast

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Lucrative James is confident Karol Rosa is the side at plus money. He believes Irene Aldana's win over Macy Chiasson was a fluke (upkick from bottom) and that she was losing that fight. He thinks Rosa can get takedowns and control from top, and that the fight is close on the feet. He calls betting on Aldana at minus 230 'mental' and says Rosa should not be plus 180.

"Karol Rosa should not be plus 180... this is ridiculous."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

The host picks Rosa as an underdog, citing her youth, potential, and well-rounded game. He believes Rosa can out-grapple Aldana, who has shown vulnerabilities in the clinch and on the ground. He notes that Rosa can be competitive on the feet but should look to close the distance and implement her grappling. He expects Rosa to win a decision by putting together a better MMA package.

Rosa by decision

"give me the youngster here the 28-year-old at least relative to the 35-year-old AR adala uh as I think HOSA can go out there and put together a better MMA package here and win this fight on the scorecards so …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Paul picks Rosa as an underdog, citing Aldana's poor takedown defense and Rosa's volume and wrestling. He notes that Aldana has been taken down easily in past fights and that Rosa can win on the feet or by mixing in takedowns. Paul acknowledges both fighters are untrustworthy but sees value in Rosa at +160. He believes Rosa's cardio and volume will be key.

"I'll go with the CF dot model here and uh and side with Carol Rosa"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Irene Aldana

The Guru picks Irene Aldana over Karol Rosa, despite Aldana's poor performance against Amanda Nunes. He notes Aldana's wins over Macy Chiasson and Yana Santos, and believes she has a finishing advantage and is physically bigger. He expects Aldana to win easily.

"I'm going with Irene aldana... Irene aldana beats her really easily even though she was absolutely [ __ ] scared of Amanda Nunes"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Yana Santos

Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Karol Rosa	0	95 of 156	60%	151 of 213	0 of 0	---	0	0	3:53
Yana Santos	0	66 of 130	50%	117 of 181	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:41

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Karol Rosa	33 of 54	61%	68 of 89	0 of 0	---	2:19
1	Yana Santos	12 of 26	46%	35 of 49	0 of 0	---	0:08
2	Karol Rosa	29 of 44	65%	48 of 64	0 of 0	---	1:34
2	Yana Santos	20 of 44	45%	42 of 66	0 of 0	---	0:08
3	Karol Rosa	33 of 58	56%	35 of 60	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Yana Santos	34 of 60	56%	40 of 66	1 of 1	100%	0:25

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Karol Rosa	95 of 156	60%	20 of 69	42 of 47	33 of 40	63 of 113	32 of 43	0 of 0
Yana Santos	66 of 130	50%	38 of 95	18 of 21	10 of 14	48 of 106	12 of 14	6 of 10

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Karol Rosa	33 of 54	61%	11 of 31	17 of 18	5 of 5	14 of 27	19 of 27	0 of 0
1	Yana Santos	12 of 26	46%	7 of 20	4 of 4	1 of 2	8 of 22	4 of 4	0 of 0
2	Karol Rosa	29 of 44	65%	5 of 19	13 of 13	11 of 12	18 of 32	11 of 12	0 of 0
2	Yana Santos	20 of 44	45%	14 of 36	5 of 6	1 of 2	16 of 38	4 of 6	0 of 0
3	Karol Rosa	33 of 58	56%	4 of 19	12 of 16	17 of 23	31 of 54	2 of 4	0 of 0
3	Yana Santos	34 of 60	56%	17 of 39	9 of 11	8 of 10	24 of 46	4 of 4	6 of 10

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Karol Rosa vs. Yana Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosa (-175), Santos (+150)

Round 1
A few weeks ago, Santos (14-7, 1 NC; 4-4 UFC) was expecting to encounter Macy Chiasson at bantamweight in what would have been an important fight given the post-Amanda Nunes landscape. Instead, she moves up in weight to the practically empty featherweight category to throw down with Rosa (16-5, 5-2 UFC). In theory, this could be a no. 1 contender fight if the promotion keeps the women’s 145-pound category together, but that remains to be seen. It will go down under the watchful eye of referee Kerry Hatley, and it kicks off with a cordial fist bump. Rosa engages first and throws hands, and Santos meets her with a few powerful punches right back. Santos strides forward to get a few knees up the middle, and Rosa replies with a sharp elbow when they are clinched. The two frantically race at one another, and Rosa grips the clinch and gets elbows on the break. Santos punches her way in, and she shells up when Rosa counters with a left and a right. The two both swing hard, and this results in a tie-up that Santos uses to push the Brazilian to the wall. Santos clings to her foe, kneeing her a few times from either side. Santos grinds, and Rosa palms her on the ear a few times. Santos chips away with short knees to the midsection, staying busy in the position while keeping Rosa stuck with her back at the wall. Santos sneaks an elbow over the top and stays closely pressed to her adversary, as her strike totals add up in this clinch position. Santos peppers Rosa with short left hands as she hangs on, and another elbow gets over the top before Rosa explodes to turn her around. Rosa gives her one single knee back before Santos tries to turn her about, and they split up. Rosa walks Santos down, and she blocks a body kick and bounces back. Santos throws punches and a body kick, and Rosa takes a subsequent front kick to the body. Rosa counters a leg kick with an overhand right, and she chases Santos around until they bump heads together. They end up clinching in the middle of the cage, and Santos shoves her to the fencing and starts up her knee attack again. Santos elects to separate, and Rosa connects with an overhand right that makes Santos think twice about closing in. Santos tosses out a low kick, and she spins with a back kick to the body. They both try to elbow each other from up close, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 2
The second round begins as Rosa moves to the center of the cage and starts chasing Santos around again. Santos ducks back from a big one-two, and Rosa lands a solid body shot before Santos can grab hold of her and initiate the clinch. Rosa backs off to find a better angle of approach, and she goes back in and is quickly turned around by the Russian. Santos throws knees to any target, squeezing Rosa tight against the fence before popping her with an elbow. Santos backs away, and crashes forward to clinch back up. Santos sneaks over another elbow and decides to break, and Rosa starts walking her down throwing punches. They trade blows, and Rosa ends with a good right hand. They tie up and trade knees in the Thai clinch, and Santos circles away to keep moving. Santos whiffs on an axe kick, and they crash together for a brief clinch until they push off. Rosa stalks down her opponent, and she lands a leg kick only to get countered with an overhand right. Rosa marches forward with impunity, and she knees Santos on the way in. The two ladies engage in single strike excursions, where they dart in, land something, and get out. They take turns in these kinds of engagements, and Rosa fires off a head kick and lets Santos brush past her. Santos kicks the body with a side kick, and she keeps strafing laterally. Rosa lands a right hand and has her head kick blocked, and she swats away a step-in elbow so she can close the distance. Santos welcomes this and turns her around without batting an eye, and the close round wraps with the two stuck together.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa

Round 3
The last round has been reached, and Rosa is the immediate aggressor as she throws big punches. Santos snatches her up and pulls her into the clinch game, but Rosa pushes her away to return to kickboxing range. Santos keeps moving, and she kicks the body a few times as Rosa walks towards her. Santos comes in to clinch, and she backs out with an elbow that grazes off the cheek. Rosa plants the ball of her foot on Santos’ midsection, and she fires off a one-two that gets Santos’ attention. They trade heavy leg kicks, and the pocket collapses as they both rush at the other to launch knees. Rosa pushes off, and she counters a body kick with a thudding right hand. Santos hops back and gathers her thoughts, and she kicks low again. They swipe at one another with big kicks, and Rosa lumps her foe up with a right hand and a low kick that does not give off a slapping sound. Rosa plods onward, beating Santos to the punch a few times in brief skirmishes, and she lands a right hand on the nose to make Santos blink it out. Rose aims a right to the body, and she checks a leg kick in response. Santos tries to keep Rosa away with a front kick, and Rosa walks through it and parries a body kick that follows. Rosa splits the guard with a one-two, and the Brazilian is the aggressor and swinging with heavier blows. Santos peppers the lead leg with a kick, and Rosa delivers one much heavier. Rosa ties her up to land one single elbow, and she pushes off to gain space and not get trapped. Rosa lumbers towards her opponent constantly, throwing punches and the occasional kick, and Santos is stuck looking for counters. A high kick from Rosa grazes off the top of the head, and she plants a one-two on the chin. Rosa trips Santos out with 15 seconds left in the fight, and she jams down elbows to the face and punches to the side to conclude the fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Rosa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Rosa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Rosa)

The Official Result
Karol Rosa def. Yana Santos via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Angelo picks Karol Rosa, expecting her volume and takedown threats to disrupt Yana Santos's rhythm. He notes Yana is the better technical striker but Rosa's busy output and wrestling will be key. He predicts a decision win for Rosa, similar to her win over Lina Lansberg but without a knockdown. He likes the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds (potential bet)

"I think it's a pretty straightforward spot for Carol right I think Jana's gonna be the better striker in technique but Carol's gonna be too busy"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Big Brady picks Karol Rosa to win by decision. He notes Yana Santos has looked atrocious lately, with poor takedown defense (45%) and losses to Holly Holm and Irene Aldana. He believes Rosa's black belt in BJJ and superior striking volume will allow her to control the fight on the mat and on the feet. He acknowledges the fight could get greasy but is confident Rosa has her covered everywhere.

"I'm gonna pick Carol HOSA to win this fight I'll say she wins this fight by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Cody likes Rosa's volume and wrestling advantage. He notes Santos has poor takedown defense and get-up game, as seen in fights against Vieira and Holm. Rosa can wrestle and has good durability. Cody thinks Rosa will press Santos against the cage, take her down, and grind out a decision. He also notes Rosa's ability to put up high strike numbers.

"calrose has the favorite yeah I'm gonna have to back that"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Daniel leans Rosa but is concerned about her recent drop in volume and defensive grappling holes. He notes Rosa's past high-volume performances and toughness, but worries that Yana could control her against the fence and win close rounds. He expects Rosa to win but sees a path for Yana via grinding decisions, making the -150 price unappealing. He calls it a pass at these odds.

"I like hosted a win but I don't like it enough at these odds"

Half the Battle

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Paul picks Rosa, citing her significant strike volume (125 vs Kohaya, 171 vs Procopio) compared to Santos' low volume. He notes Rosa's wrestling advantage and Santos' recent losses. Paul thinks Rosa by decision is likely, but he may not bet it due to the price.

Rosa by decision at -115

"I can understand why she's a minus 170 favorite am I going to get to that from a betting perspective you know me probably not"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

The Guru picks Karol Rosa, calling her technically sound and noting her win over Joseline Edwards. He doesn't see her being out-grappled by Yana Santos. However, he expresses frustration with women's MMA, calling it a coin flip and saying 'whatever happens happens,' indicating low confidence.

"I'm gonna go with Carol Rosa here I actually think she's quite technically sound as a fighter"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Norma Dumont

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Apr 22, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Norma Dumont	1	33 of 68	48%	144 of 194	0 of 2	0%	0	0	3:13
Karol Rosa	0	35 of 87	40%	63 of 129	1 of 1	100%	0	0	4:54

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Norma Dumont	0	8 of 19	42%	25 of 39	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Karol Rosa	0	11 of 26	42%	15 of 31	0 of 0	---	1:30
2	Norma Dumont	0	7 of 18	38%	47 of 67	0 of 1	0%	1:57
2	Karol Rosa	0	11 of 28	39%	27 of 51	0 of 0	---	2:05
3	Norma Dumont	1	18 of 31	58%	72 of 88	0 of 1	0%	1:16
3	Karol Rosa	0	13 of 33	39%	21 of 47	1 of 1	100%	1:19

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Norma Dumont	33 of 68	48%	19 of 43	8 of 11	6 of 14	20 of 53	13 of 15	0 of 0
Karol Rosa	35 of 87	40%	18 of 64	9 of 13	8 of 10	27 of 76	8 of 11	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Norma Dumont	8 of 19	42%	3 of 7	3 of 5	2 of 7	6 of 17	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Karol Rosa	11 of 26	42%	5 of 17	2 of 4	4 of 5	9 of 24	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Norma Dumont	7 of 18	38%	4 of 13	3 of 4	0 of 1	4 of 13	3 of 5	0 of 0
2	Karol Rosa	11 of 28	39%	7 of 22	4 of 6	0 of 0	7 of 21	4 of 7	0 of 0
3	Norma Dumont	18 of 31	58%	12 of 23	2 of 2	4 of 6	10 of 23	8 of 8	0 of 0
3	Karol Rosa	13 of 33	39%	6 of 25	3 of 3	4 of 5	11 of 31	2 of 2	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Norma Dumont vs. Karol Rosa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dumont (-115), Rosa (-105)

Round 1
An all-Brazil battle at the rare women’s featherweight category is about to play out, with the victor here between Rosa (16-4, 5-1 UFC) and Dumont (8-2, 4-2 UFC) very possibly a win away from a crack at the belt in that division – should the champ wish to defend. Unlike the previous matchup that expected a knockout that did not get delivered, these ladies have gone the distance a combined 19 times in their 30 pro outings, while accounting for all nine of their UFC wins. Referee Chris Tognoni might be in this one for the long haul, and it opens up with a touch of gloves. The featherweights are tentative to engage, with Rosa reaching out with a low kick and a front kick from out of range to account for the first minute. They spring into action, throwing alternating hooks, and they catch one another as Rosa gets the worst of it and blinks it out. Dumont moves to the center of the Octagon and throws the low kick, and she swats out with a left to follow. A person from the crowd shows “let’s go” to spur the ladies into action, as they stand in front of one another doing nothing. Tognoni asks them to fight, and they do, briefly, with looping hooks aimed at one another. After the exchange, they get back to a lull of inactivity, with Rosa landing a single leg kick. Dumont answers with one, and Tognoni implores them to do something. Dumont crashes the pocket and ties Rosa up, and she is warned for hooking her fingers in the fence to keep Rosa stuck against it. Rosa punches her opponent on the posterior as Dumont gloms onto her, and Dumont pays it no mind as she presses on the Parana Vale Tudo fighter. Tognoni tells Dumont to stay busy, and Rosa punches her in the backside a few more times before Dumont knees her in the belly. Tognoni breaks the two up after nothing happens in the clinch, and they start slinging leather in short bursts. Dumont calms down and lands a leg kick, one that Rosa meets immediately after. Dumont springs forward with two punches that split the guard, and she takes punches and a pair of knees in response before the slow round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dumont

Round 2
The second round kicks off as the two ladies high-five, and Dumont gets her engine roaring as she throws down. Fists fly, and Rosa takes a few on the chin that knock her back to the wall. Dumont tags her a few more times, until the featherweights clinch up, and Dumont immediately grabs it and is warned. The punches from “The Immortal” cause some serious damage on Rosa’s eye, as a cut appears to have formed on or around the eyelid to make Rosa look as if she were weeping blood a la Le Chiffre. It is not a derangement of the tear duct, and instead a result of Dumont’s effective left hand, but they slow down in the clinch. Tognoni considers breaking them, until Rosa sets up a Thai clinch and knees the body a few times. Dumont squeezes her against the wall even tighter, and is once more warned for hooking her fingers in the chain links. Rosa is able to escape the clinch and still seems to be able to see, as she swings her way into a combination that ends up with another tie-up. Rosa pursues a body lock takedown, and Dumont stays upright as Tognoni watches on to make sure no funny business happens. Dumont tries to counter throw her opponent, and Rosa stops it from succeeding and knees her on the chin. Dumont gives her a knee back to the body, and Rosa is content to jam Dumont up in this position. Try as she might, Dumont cannot escape, and Rosa belts her in the face with a cheeky elbow. The round concludes as Rosa breaks off to throw hands, with Dumont replying with a knee to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dumont
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dumont

Round 3
A glove touch starts off the last round at range, and Dumont opens up with two leg kicks and one to the midsection. Rosa throws one back, prompting Dumont to retaliate with a one-two down the middle. Rosa is caught when throwing by Dumont’s oncoming clinch attempt, but they do not tie one another up and instead return to kickboxing range. Dumont sticks out a jab on that damaged eye and scores a low kick, and it is partially checked as she hops on it when recoiling. Dumont jabs the body as Rosa kicks her in the body, and Rosa gets off a quick right hand over the top. Rosa charges her way into a clinch, landing a few shots before closing the distance, and Dumont turns her around with ease. Dumont hangs on with this position, slowing down any offense from either fighter to practically nothing, as Rosa wriggles her arms while Dumont holds both underhooks. Rosa gains space by a matter of inches to use her elbow to frame off and push away, and Dumont counters with a throw that dumps the PRVT fighter to her back. Rosa jumps right back up instead of settling on her back, and she whips a one-two at her opponent. Rosa loads up on a right hand, and Dumont drops to a knee and shakes her head out. Rosa crashes towards her, and she ends up clinching instead of throwing more strikes. Rosa gets off a couple short elbows and a right hand from up close, and Dumont recovers by holding on and turning her about in the tie-up. Rosa gets some space with 30 seconds to spare, and Rosa walks her down and slugs her in the face with her right hand. Dumont backs off, and she seeks a clinch to slow things down. Rosa throws her foe down on her face, and when they stand up, Rosa spins with a back elbow that drills into the face of “The Immortal.” Dumont is stunned but still with it, and the horn blows to end this drudge of a potential eliminator.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Dumont)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Dumont)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Dumont)

The Official Result
Norma Dumont def. Karol Rosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Norma Dumont

Angelo picks Norma Dumont as an underdog, surprised she is +125. He trusts her size, takedown defense, and striking acumen. He notes that while Rosa has high volume, she gets hit twice as often. He thinks Dumont's technical striking will be the difference and that she can pull off the upset.

"I like Norma Dumont here she's sitting at plus 125 right now and I'm surprised... Norma Dumont Underdog pick on this card I think she's gonna pull off the upset."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Norma Dumont

Big Brady leans with Norma Dumont to win by split decision, but has no confidence in the pick. He notes that the fight is at featherweight, which favors Dumont's size, and that the grappling exchanges will decide the winner. He sees both fighters having been taken down in the past, but gives a slight edge to Dumont's size to get on top and win minutes on the ground. He is passing on betting this fight entirely.

passing on betting

"I'm going to take her I'm going to say she does get take down Sierra she does get on top she uses that size to kind of win minutes on the ground but just no no confidence in this fight …"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Cody picks Rosa, hoping she can use her volume and speed to outwork Dumont. He notes Dumont doesn't wrestle enough and Rosa has good takedown defense. However, he admits it's a close fight and he is relying on Dumont fighting a bad game plan. He acknowledges Dumont's wrestling could be a problem if she uses it.

"I'm gonna go roast to the other side but uh I hear you I think it's gonna come down to the takedown with Carol Rosa"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Connor picks Karol Rosa, arguing that Dumont is too patient and doesn't know how to grapple, which will be a problem against Rosa's willingness to wrestle. He notes that Rosa flourishes when she can dictate the nature of the fight, and Dumont's lack of pressure will allow Rosa to work. Connor also criticizes Dumont's resume, saying she has mostly beaten non-threatening opponents.

Odds comment: Rosa opened at -142, currently -103; Dumont opened at +128, now -114. Connor says that line movement doesn't make sense.

"I think that this probably makes this Dumont fight a pretty good one for Hosa, frankly."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Karol Rosa is the more well-rounded fighter with better output, technical striking, and ground game. However, she is moving up to featherweight, where Norma Dumont has a size and strength advantage. Rosa struggled against the physicality of Sarah McMahon in the past. Dumont is a wild card with inconsistent performances and weight issues. Rosa should use her footwork and volume to outpoint Dumont, but it's a close fight. Prediction: Rosa by decision, with low confidence.

Over 2.5 rounds might be a good play

"I'm still going to lean with the hostess side thinking that she has more paths to Victory here... I'm thinking that we're going to see a horse out Striker here win this five-year decision"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Norma Dumont

Paul picks Dumont, noting he got her at plus 125 earlier. He believes Dumont has the power and wrestling advantage, and can take Rosa down and control her. He acknowledges Rosa's volume and speed but thinks Dumont's size and strength will be decisive. He mentions the line has moved to minus 120 and there may not be much value left.

"big Norm will be my pick I'm already on her um but at a significantly better price as this becomes more like minus 120 minus 130 I mean I don't know if there's too much meat on the bone"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Norma Dumont

The MMA Guru picks Norma Dumont, agreeing with a coin flip. He thinks Dumont is a much better fighter than Karol Rosa, noting Rosa's lack of takedown ability and Dumont's decent takedown defense. He cites Dumont's clean win over Danielle Wolfe and believes she will outclass Rosa on the feet. He predicts a decision win, 29-28 or 30-27.

decision

"I am going to go with Norma Jamon here I just think she's like such a better fighter than Carol Rosa is"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Karol Rosa. He notes that Dumont is a solid counter puncher but too patient and doesn't seize initiative. Zane believes Rosa will get a ton of time to work and that Dumont struggles when put on her back. He also points out that Rosa is a willing wrestler and that Dumont's wins are over weak competition.

"I think so too. I mean, I do think it has the potential to... we might see some interesting clashes here because Dumont for all of her overpatience, it is because she is a pretty solid counter puncher."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Lina Länsberg

Decision (majority) (29–27, 29–27, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Karol Rosa	0	54 of 74	72%	160 of 190	3 of 6	50%	0	0	9:44
Lina Länsberg	1	36 of 60	60%	100 of 132	0 of 0	---	0	0	2:48

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Karol Rosa	0	6 of 10	60%	42 of 49	1 of 1	100%	2:59
1	Lina Länsberg	1	7 of 10	70%	22 of 27	0 of 0	---	0:56
2	Karol Rosa	0	15 of 16	93%	58 of 64	2 of 2	100%	4:29
2	Lina Länsberg	0	4 of 12	33%	28 of 39	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Karol Rosa	0	33 of 48	68%	60 of 77	0 of 3	0%	2:16
3	Lina Länsberg	0	25 of 38	65%	50 of 66	0 of 0	---	1:52

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Karol Rosa	54 of 74	72%	31 of 46	13 of 16	10 of 12	24 of 38	15 of 20	15 of 16
Lina Länsberg	36 of 60	60%	15 of 39	20 of 20	1 of 1	18 of 42	16 of 16	2 of 2

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Karol Rosa	6 of 10	60%	2 of 5	1 of 1	3 of 4	4 of 8	1 of 1	1 of 1
1	Lina Länsberg	7 of 10	70%	3 of 6	4 of 4	0 of 0	4 of 7	3 of 3	0 of 0
2	Karol Rosa	15 of 16	93%	7 of 7	1 of 1	7 of 8	1 of 1	0 of 0	14 of 15
2	Lina Länsberg	4 of 12	33%	3 of 11	0 of 0	1 of 1	2 of 10	0 of 0	2 of 2
3	Karol Rosa	33 of 48	68%	22 of 34	11 of 14	0 of 0	19 of 29	14 of 19	0 of 0
3	Lina Länsberg	25 of 38	65%	9 of 22	16 of 16	0 of 0	12 of 25	13 of 13	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Lina Lansberg vs. Karol Rosa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosa (-295), Lansberg (+245)

Round 1
The big show is upon us, and if you live in North America, you’re getting up early for this one and for good reason. A cool dozen fights – with most matches featuring ranked competitors – will grace this blockbuster event, one that begins in the women’s 135-pound weight class. Rising contender and Jessica Andrade training partner Rosa (15-4, 4-1 UFC) will look to get back on track after a humbling defeat to Sara McMann in March, while 40-year-old Swede Lansberg (10-6, 4-5 UFC) intends on demonstrating she is not done yet as she hunts for her first win since 2019. The first match of the day draws officiating from referee Lukasz Bosacki, and it begins without a glove touch. As a note, the UFC commentary team of Jon Anik, Daniel Cormier and Paul Felder is completely silent, possibly from technical difficulties. The two ladies jab at one another, and Rosa tosses out a body kick. Rosa fires off another kick, and Lansberg counters her with a right hand over the top that drops Rosa to her seat. The crowd erupts, and Lansberg sprints forwards but cannot reach her opponent before Rosa springs to her feet. Still a little tingly, Rosa runs straight into Lansberg, where she pushes her straight into the fence and clings on tight. Lansberg gladly accepts this position, turns her foe around and knees her in the belly a few times. Lansberg stays busy in the clinch, working the thighs and midsection with knees, and Bosacki calls for action. The two ladies both consider takedowns at the same time, and Rosa is the stronger woman and shoves Lansberg down to the mat. The Brazilian lands in half guard, and she postures up but Lansberg is clinging to her wrists to prevent any offense. Meanwhile, Lansberg is attempting to slash with elbows off her back, and this allows Rosa to get her own strikes going from above. Rosa settles for control time as she rides and drops down a few punches, but the strikes are sporadic at best. Rosa shifts momentarily to three-quarter mount, but opts to stand up right before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lansberg
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Rosa

Round 2
The commentary resumes at the beginning of the second round, but fight fans might pine for an option for no commentary for broadcasts going forward – not because Jon Anik is not an exceptional fight caller, but because it provides a different and interesting option to watch fights. At the start of Round 2, Rosa blitzes forward and hits a takedown within seconds. Rosa comfortably sits on top, with Lansberg unable to reverse, sweep or find a better angle. Rosa places her foe flat on her back, and she grinds her elbow on the face of “Elbow Queen” as if to attempt a very low level of regicide. Rosa then elbows the side as the time ticks off the clock, and Lansberg suddenly explodes to kick Rosa off of her. Rosa lords over her with slapping kicks to the leg, and Lansberg remains on her back instead of climbing back up. The crowd is not thrilled with this exchange. Rosa allows Lansberg to sit up, and as the Swede is leaning against the cage with her left knee down, Rosa blasts her in the face with an illegal knee. Bosacki recognizes this immediately, and he allows Lansberg to recover from the foul and calls in the doctor. Lansberg is all smiles and asks for Bosacki to take a point, and he agrees and deducts one point from Rosa. The fighters get back to it after about two minutes of recovery time, and Lansberg comes out swinging. Rosa capitalizes on this aggression by bowling her over with a takedown. The Brazilian smothers from on top in half guard again, with few strikes of merit and plenty of time hanging on in this position. Lansberg considers snatching up a heel from her back, and this forces Rosa to stand back up. Rosa leaps down in a diving leg lock attempt, and the round ends before anything can come from it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 9-9
Ben Duffy scores the round: 9-9
John Brannigan scores the round: 9-9

Round 3
The bantamweights meet in the middle, and both want to throw hands. Rosa clips her opponent with a right hand, and as Lansberg throws a body kick, the Swede gets tagged with a left hook. Lansberg strides forward and delivers a knee to the chest, and Rosa is feeling it as Lansberg pushes her to the wall. Rosa attempts to respond with knees while stuck on the fence, and she spins her opponent around and elbows her on the chin. The two jockey for position in this tight posture, and they get off knees at the same moment. This stalemate continues as Rosa gets the upper hand with short but effective strikes, and she gets shoved back. The Brazilian leaps in the air with a knee, and she bullies Lansberg back to the wire again. Lansberg deftly turns her around and gets off an elbow, forcing Rosa to change levels and go for a failed takedown. As she senses Lansberg slowing, Rosa swarms with a barrage of elbows and punches, as if to send a message to “Elbow Queen.” Rosa swings so hard she nearly topples over, as Lansberg has some swelling growing fast under her left eye. Lansberg catches her and ties her up to slow down the onslaught, but this allows Rosa to hit a throw and drop her to her knees. Lansberg climbs back up, and Rosa spins with an elbow that collides with the temple. Rosa rips one more knee to the body before the horn blares, and this could a close one depending on how judges score the first round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (28-28 Rosa)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-27 Rosa)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-27 Rosa)

The Official Result
Karol Rosa def. Lina Lansberg via Majority Decision (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Angelo picks Karol Rosa because she is the more well-rounded fighter with solid takedown offense and defense. He notes that Lina Länsberg is a better striker but was recently out-struck by Pannie Kianzad, and Rosa can avoid the clinch and use her own takedowns. He emphasizes that Rosa needs to avoid getting into a Muay Thai clinch.

"Karol is the more well-rounded fighter she should absolutely win this fight but she definitely needs to avoid getting into a Muay Thai clinch and fighting that dirty Lena lansberg fight"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Big Brady picks Karol Rosa to win by decision. He notes Rosa is 13 years younger, has higher volume (6.65 significant strikes per minute vs 2.74), and believes Länsberg would need to clinch or take the fight down to win, which he doesn't see happening. He expects Rosa to keep it upright and outpoint Länsberg over 15 minutes.

"I like Carol Jose to win this fight you know keep it upright keep it at range and just out Point Lena Landsberg across 15 minutes and win probably 30-27"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Cody is confident in Rosa, noting her superior volume and striking. He thinks Länsberg is low volume and lacks power. Cody expects Rosa to win by decision, and likes the decision prop at -110.

Rosa by decision (-110)

"I gotta think uh fade the underdog go with Carol Rosa big favorite yes but as you mentioned Rose said not really known for her finishing abilities"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Daniel Levi picks Karol Rosa to win, citing her huge output advantage (nearly 7 strikes per minute vs Lina Länsberg's under 3). He notes Rosa's well-rounded game including takedowns, and that she is 27 while Länsberg is 40. Levi is only wary of Länsberg's elbows but thinks Rosa's knees in the clinch and overall volume will prevail. He bet 1 unit at -225.

Bet 1 unit at -225.

"I bet uh Carlos at minus 225 to win one unit"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Karol Rosa is a solid prospect with great output, often landing over 100 significant strikes. She has good body work in the clinch and can also take a grapple-heavy approach to nullify Länsberg's elbows. Länsberg is 40 years old and coming off a loss to Pannie Kianzad, who is not as good as Rosa. Rosa should win via decision, and the chalk is worthy even at -295.

Rosa by decision at -115

"I think HOSA is a very solid Prospect... I think that this is a great matchup for a hostel to go out there I think the chalk is more than worthy of it as well"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Paul is confident in Rosa, noting Länsberg's age and lack of finishing ability. He thinks Rosa's volume and grappling will be too much. Paul has already bet Rosa by decision at -110.

Rosa by decision (-110)

"I actually just added Carol Rosa by decision to my card at -110"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Karol Rosa over Lina Länsberg, citing Rosa's superior technique, youth (27 vs 40), and recent grappling improvements after a loss to Sarah McMahon. He notes Länsberg's decline and believes Rosa will win by unanimous decision, leveraging a two-inch reach advantage.

"Carol Rosa is going to win because she is Carol Rosa and her opponent is Lena Landsberg"

THE MMA GURU

View all 13 fights

Yana Santos - Fight History

WIN vs Macy Chiasson

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Macy Chiasson	0	54 of 118	45%	91 of 158	2 of 3	66%	1	0	3:43
Yana Santos	0	65 of 124	52%	115 of 176	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:49

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Macy Chiasson	14 of 33	42%	24 of 44	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
1	Yana Santos	31 of 50	62%	40 of 59	0 of 0	---	0	0:49
2	Macy Chiasson	25 of 50	50%	32 of 57	1 of 1	100%	0	1:03
2	Yana Santos	31 of 52	59%	55 of 76	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Macy Chiasson	15 of 35	42%	35 of 57	1 of 1	100%	1	2:40
3	Yana Santos	3 of 22	13%	20 of 41	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Macy Chiasson	54 of 118	45%	25 of 76	25 of 35	4 of 7	24 of 81	25 of 29	5 of 8
Yana Santos	65 of 124	52%	29 of 74	31 of 43	5 of 7	29 of 73	36 of 51	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Macy Chiasson	14 of 33	42%	5 of 19	7 of 11	2 of 3	8 of 26	6 of 7	0 of 0
1	Yana Santos	31 of 50	62%	10 of 25	20 of 22	1 of 3	10 of 25	21 of 25	0 of 0
2	Macy Chiasson	25 of 50	50%	9 of 31	14 of 16	2 of 3	10 of 34	15 of 16	0 of 0
2	Yana Santos	31 of 52	59%	19 of 36	9 of 13	3 of 3	16 of 28	15 of 24	0 of 0
3	Macy Chiasson	15 of 35	42%	11 of 26	4 of 8	0 of 1	6 of 21	4 of 6	5 of 8
3	Yana Santos	3 of 22	13%	0 of 13	2 of 8	1 of 1	3 of 20	0 of 2	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Yana Santos

Angelo likes Yana Santos as a plus-185 underdog. He thinks Macy Chiasson has abandoned her Muay Thai style for grappling, which plays into Yana's strengths as a good striker with good footwork and range management. He notes that in Las Vegas, takedowns don't score well, so empty takedowns won't help Macy. He also mentions a potential plus-3.5 spread bet.

Plus 185 underdog; considering plus 3.5 spread bet.

"I think Jana is a phenomenal underdog here. Plus 185. I think she's a great underdog here... I am going to lean Giannis Santos here."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Macy Chiasson

Big Brady is confident in Macy Chiasson, noting that Yana Santos is very bad on the bottom and has been knocked out multiple times. He believes Chiasson can get takedowns and finish the fight with ground and pound or a submission. He acknowledges that Chiasson struggled against Ketlen Vieira, but attributes that to Vieira's elite takedown defense. He predicts a third-round submission for Chiasson.

Macy Chiasson by third round submission.

"I think Macy wins here. I think she gets on top. I think she gets takedowns and I think she finds a finish. I think she finishes Jana Santos. I'll say third round submission for Macy Chazison in this fight."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Yana Santos

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Santos because Chiasson's offensive piling up is a thin veneer that collapses when things go wrong. He expects Chiasson to crash into the clinch and get bullied on the fence, as she does when she is not the stronger fighter. He also notes that Santos is a neutralizer who can break through Chiasson's game.

Chiasson opened at -300, currently -200; Santos opened at +250, currently +170

"I'll take Santos too."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)

Yana Santos

Chiasson missed weight again, and the host sees this as an opportunity for Santos to take advantage with her striking advantage and good takedown defense, running away with the fight on the scorecards.

"I think that this is a perfect opportunity for Santos to take advantage of that by really putting on Chiasson with her striking advantage, utilizing her good takedown defense early, and then running away with this matchup and winning it …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Macy Chiasson

The MMA Guru picks Macy Chiasson, citing her physicality and size advantage. He notes that Yana Santos lacks a logical path to victory and Chiasson's pressure and clinch work should be enough. He predicts a 29-28 decision.

"I'm going with Macy Chiasson. I'm looking at the Irene Aldana fight."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Yana Santos

Zane picks Santos because Chiasson's success depends on being bigger and stronger than her opponent, and when she is not, she looks weak and collapses. He notes that Santos is big and awkward, and can keep the fight at her range or be competitive inside physically. He also points out that Santos has beaten Ketlen Vieira and Misha Tate, while Chiasson lost to Vieira and would likely lose to Tate.

Chiasson opened at -300, currently -200; Santos opened at +250, currently +170

"I got to pick Santos here."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Miesha Tate

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Yana Santos	0	66 of 117	56%	87 of 143	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:46
Miesha Tate	0	40 of 115	34%	108 of 204	1 of 7	14%	0	0	5:05

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Yana Santos	31 of 61	50%	43 of 76	0 of 1	0%	0:25
1	Miesha Tate	22 of 55	40%	33 of 72	0 of 2	0%	0:47
2	Yana Santos	31 of 44	70%	39 of 52	0 of 0	---	0:21
2	Miesha Tate	13 of 43	30%	18 of 48	0 of 3	0%	0:40
3	Yana Santos	4 of 12	33%	5 of 15	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Miesha Tate	5 of 17	29%	57 of 84	1 of 2	50%	3:38

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Yana Santos	66 of 117	56%	37 of 87	15 of 16	14 of 14	47 of 96	19 of 21	0 of 0
Miesha Tate	40 of 115	34%	25 of 88	8 of 17	7 of 10	29 of 100	8 of 10	3 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Yana Santos	31 of 61	50%	14 of 44	9 of 9	8 of 8	19 of 47	12 of 14	0 of 0
1	Miesha Tate	22 of 55	40%	14 of 43	4 of 7	4 of 5	20 of 52	2 of 3	0 of 0
2	Yana Santos	31 of 44	70%	20 of 33	6 of 6	5 of 5	24 of 37	7 of 7	0 of 0
2	Miesha Tate	13 of 43	30%	6 of 28	4 of 10	3 of 5	7 of 36	6 of 7	0 of 0
3	Yana Santos	4 of 12	33%	3 of 10	0 of 1	1 of 1	4 of 12	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Miesha Tate	5 of 17	29%	5 of 17	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 12	0 of 0	3 of 5

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Yana Santos

Angelo picks Yana Santos as the underdog, citing her superior striking and footwork. He believes Miesha Tate is one-dimensional and will struggle to get takedowns. He notes that Santos looked good in her last fight and that Tate has not evolved enough to compete. He also mentions a possible spread bet if available.

Interested in +3.5 spread if available

"Jana's the pick. The sport just passes some people by."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Miesha Tate

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate, citing a clear path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that Yana Santos has poor takedown defense (42%) and looks bad on bottom, as seen against Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira. Despite Tate's age (38) and inconsistency, her ground game is strong with submissions and ground and pound. He predicts Tate will finish by second-round submission.

Round 2 submission

"I'm going to go Miesa Tate to win this fight. I'll take her to win this fight by second round submission."

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Miesha Tate

Tate should take advantage of Santos's grappling shortcomings. She will mix up takedowns, get top control, and grind out a decision win.

"I believe we're going to see a great performance from Tate here as she should be able to take advantage of some of the grappling shortcomings in Santos's game."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate, stating that Yana Santos has shown an inability to do anything on the ground. He believes Tate's wrestling and experience will be enough to outwrestle Santos. He criticizes the state of women's bantamweight but expects Tate to get the win.

"I'm going to go with Misha Tate. She's a favorite as well. So actually it's not that crazy."

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Chelsea Chandler

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Yana Santos	1	94 of 135	69%	135 of 186	0 of 0	---	0	0	1:00
Chelsea Chandler	0	56 of 124	45%	73 of 152	0 of 0	---	0	0	2:41

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Yana Santos	0	33 of 44	75%	38 of 50	0 of 0	---	0:02
1	Chelsea Chandler	0	14 of 40	35%	16 of 44	0 of 0	---	0:27
2	Yana Santos	1	33 of 48	68%	39 of 58	0 of 0	---	0:35
2	Chelsea Chandler	0	17 of 34	50%	24 of 46	0 of 0	---	0:22
3	Yana Santos	0	28 of 43	65%	58 of 78	0 of 0	---	0:23
3	Chelsea Chandler	0	25 of 50	50%	33 of 62	0 of 0	---	1:52

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Yana Santos	94 of 135	69%	30 of 58	38 of 50	26 of 27	58 of 94	36 of 41	0 of 0
Chelsea Chandler	56 of 124	45%	31 of 90	25 of 34	0 of 0	29 of 88	27 of 36	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Yana Santos	33 of 44	75%	10 of 19	11 of 12	12 of 13	24 of 35	9 of 9	0 of 0
1	Chelsea Chandler	14 of 40	35%	9 of 31	5 of 9	0 of 0	8 of 30	6 of 10	0 of 0
2	Yana Santos	33 of 48	68%	12 of 21	12 of 18	9 of 9	21 of 34	12 of 14	0 of 0
2	Chelsea Chandler	17 of 34	50%	10 of 27	7 of 7	0 of 0	12 of 28	5 of 6	0 of 0
3	Yana Santos	28 of 43	65%	8 of 18	15 of 20	5 of 5	13 of 25	15 of 18	0 of 0
3	Chelsea Chandler	25 of 50	50%	12 of 32	13 of 18	0 of 0	9 of 30	16 of 20	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Chelsea Chandler (141: Missed Weight) vs. Yana Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-142), Chandler (+120)

Round 1
Action heads back to the women’s bantamweight division, where Santos (14-8, 4-5 UFC) collides with an overweight Chandler (6-2, 2-1 UFC). The 30-year-old Chandler tipped the scales at 141 pounds—a whopping five pounds over the bantamweight limit. Herb Dean handles the officiating duties. Santos takes the center of the cage against the southpaw. She lands a kick across both legs. Side kick to the lead leg from Santos. She follows punches with another leg kick. Definite difference in class of fighter so far. Chandler steps forward punches and looks to clinch. Santos shrugs it off. Leg kick from Santos, then another. Chandler counters with a straight left. Body kick from Santos. Chandler bobs and weaves on the outside, as the action stalls. Santos steps into a push kick to the face, then crashes into the clinch. Chandler turns her into the fence. Santos breaks free and cuts loose with punches. Ninety seconds left. Chandler pumps out a range-finding jab. Santos delivers a nice kick to the body. Pace slows again. Another body kick from Santos. Chandler flurries, connects with a left and clinches along the cage. She goes nowhere and separates. Body kick from Santos, followed by a spinning back kick upstairs. She closes with an inside low kick.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 2
Chandler charges out to the center of the cage and eats a pair of punches. Santos floors her with a right hand, then hammers the legs with kicks with Chandler in the butt scoot position. Dean restarts them standing. Head kick from Santos, followed by a one-two and another push kick to the face. Chandler absorbs another leg kick. Santos steps into an inside leg kick, resets in open space and scores with a leg kick. Too much speed and skill for Chandler, who simply cannot plug all the holes in her game. She bullies her way into the clinch. Santos breaks free. No change to the narrative midway through the round. Santos connects with a short-range knee to the body, engages Chandler in the clinch, lands an elbow and turns her to the fence. She lands an elbow off the break. Santos superior at range and in the clinch. Chandler looks to close the distance behind a straight left. No luck. Santos unleashes a kick to the head in open space, then another. Chandler scores with a right hand over the top. Santos lands an axe kick to the collar bone. They finish the round in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 3
Santos circles on the outside to start Round 3. Leg kick from Santos. Chandler again crashes into the clinch along the fence and works knees to the legs and body. Santos avoids a trip and connects with an elbow for breaking free. Chandler walks Santos into a chopping right hand over the top. Santos answers with a body kick. Inside leg kick from Santos, who circles on the outside. Chandler initiates the clinch, throws a knee to the body and tries to bottle up Santos along the fence. Santos breaks free without much trouble. Chandler swarms with punches. Santos responds with a close-quarters knee to the gut, then another. Chandler seems to be out of ideas. Push kick to the face from Santos. She follows with a side kick to the chest. Just too many weapons. Ninety seconds on the clock. Chandler stalks forward and eats a left hand over the top. Once again, they find their way into the clinch. They trade knees. Santos escapes into open space. Chandler follows left hands into the clinch. Action stalls. Push kick to the face from Santos. Chandler hammers away to the body with both hands but runs out of time.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)

The Official Result
Yana Santos def. Chelsea Chandler—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Chelsea Chandler

Angelo picks Chelsea Chandler based on size and power, expecting her to slow down the pace, lean on Santos, and hold her against the cage. He admits Santos is the better technical fighter but is on a three-fight skid and might be phoning it in. He warns that confidence is very low and advises not to bet heavily on this pick.

Very low confidence; be careful betting

"I think Chelsea Chandler wins because she's big don't bet on it be very careful confidence very low"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Yana Santos

Cody picks Santos but with low confidence, citing her poor takedown defense (42%) and Chandler's grappling. He thinks Santos can win rounds 2 and 3 if she keeps it standing, and suggests live betting if she loses the first round. He notes the fight likely goes to decision and judges may favor activity.

Fight goes to decision (over 2.5 rounds)

"I'm leaning towards judges looking at activity work rate who's actually trying to finish and who's actually trying to fight so give me Jana things could change with a bad way cut then you'd feel better about Jana"

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Yana Santos

Santos has a significant experience advantage and is better in the clinch, where the fight will likely be won. Chandler is raw on the feet and open to counters. Santos should land better damage and win a split decision, though Chandler's physical strength could cause problems.

"I think that Santos will have an advantage there and Chandler could have some success of her own being a pretty physically strong woman herself but I think the experence of Santos and the technical advantages of Santos will end …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Yana Santos

Paul leans slightly to Santos due to her volume striking, but acknowledges low confidence. He expects a split decision and notes Chandler's grappling could control early rounds. He suggests a split decision prop as a good play.

Split decision (plus 300)

"I'll lean ever so slightly to the volume on Santos but the the confidence and actually laying a hammer on this is definitely not there for me"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Chelsea Chandler

The MMA Guru picks Chelsea Chandler, citing her commitment to the game and size/strength advantage over Yana Santos. He does not provide detailed technical breakdown but expresses confidence in Chandler's physical attributes.

"I'll go Chelsea Chandler I think um yeah she's just more committed to the game and she's bigger and stronger"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Karol Rosa

Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Karol Rosa	0	95 of 156	60%	151 of 213	0 of 0	---	0	0	3:53
Yana Santos	0	66 of 130	50%	117 of 181	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:41

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Karol Rosa	33 of 54	61%	68 of 89	0 of 0	---	2:19
1	Yana Santos	12 of 26	46%	35 of 49	0 of 0	---	0:08
2	Karol Rosa	29 of 44	65%	48 of 64	0 of 0	---	1:34
2	Yana Santos	20 of 44	45%	42 of 66	0 of 0	---	0:08
3	Karol Rosa	33 of 58	56%	35 of 60	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Yana Santos	34 of 60	56%	40 of 66	1 of 1	100%	0:25

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Karol Rosa	95 of 156	60%	20 of 69	42 of 47	33 of 40	63 of 113	32 of 43	0 of 0
Yana Santos	66 of 130	50%	38 of 95	18 of 21	10 of 14	48 of 106	12 of 14	6 of 10

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Karol Rosa	33 of 54	61%	11 of 31	17 of 18	5 of 5	14 of 27	19 of 27	0 of 0
1	Yana Santos	12 of 26	46%	7 of 20	4 of 4	1 of 2	8 of 22	4 of 4	0 of 0
2	Karol Rosa	29 of 44	65%	5 of 19	13 of 13	11 of 12	18 of 32	11 of 12	0 of 0
2	Yana Santos	20 of 44	45%	14 of 36	5 of 6	1 of 2	16 of 38	4 of 6	0 of 0
3	Karol Rosa	33 of 58	56%	4 of 19	12 of 16	17 of 23	31 of 54	2 of 4	0 of 0
3	Yana Santos	34 of 60	56%	17 of 39	9 of 11	8 of 10	24 of 46	4 of 4	6 of 10

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

over 2.5 rounds (potential bet)

"I think it's a pretty straightforward spot for Carol right I think Jana's gonna be the better striker in technique but Carol's gonna be too busy"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

"I'm gonna pick Carol HOSA to win this fight I'll say she wins this fight by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

"calrose has the favorite yeah I'm gonna have to back that"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

"I like hosted a win but I don't like it enough at these odds"

Half the Battle

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Rosa by decision at -115

"I can understand why she's a minus 170 favorite am I going to get to that from a betting perspective you know me probably not"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

"I'm gonna go with Carol Rosa here I actually think she's quite technically sound as a fighter"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Holly Holm

Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Holly Holm	0	32 of 63	50%	105 of 163	4 of 6	66%	0	0	9:49
Yana Santos	0	21 of 46	45%	120 of 185	0 of 0	---	0	0	1:19

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Holly Holm	7 of 16	43%	24 of 36	1 of 1	100%	1:41
1	Yana Santos	12 of 25	48%	50 of 76	0 of 0	---	1:19
2	Holly Holm	16 of 33	48%	43 of 67	1 of 1	100%	4:09
2	Yana Santos	7 of 12	58%	38 of 56	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Holly Holm	9 of 14	64%	38 of 60	2 of 4	50%	3:59
3	Yana Santos	2 of 9	22%	32 of 53	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Holly Holm	32 of 63	50%	23 of 49	8 of 12	1 of 2	14 of 33	4 of 5	14 of 25
Yana Santos	21 of 46	45%	3 of 22	8 of 9	10 of 15	15 of 37	6 of 9	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Holly Holm	7 of 16	43%	5 of 12	2 of 4	0 of 0	6 of 15	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Yana Santos	12 of 25	48%	2 of 13	3 of 4	7 of 8	9 of 20	3 of 5	0 of 0
2	Holly Holm	16 of 33	48%	12 of 27	4 of 5	0 of 1	4 of 11	0 of 1	12 of 21
2	Yana Santos	7 of 12	58%	1 of 4	3 of 3	3 of 5	6 of 11	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Holly Holm	9 of 14	64%	6 of 10	2 of 3	1 of 1	4 of 7	3 of 3	2 of 4
3	Yana Santos	2 of 9	22%	0 of 5	2 of 2	0 of 2	0 of 6	2 of 3	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Holly Holm

Angelo is very confident in Holm, calling her one of his two most confident picks on the card. He notes that Holm is a technical striker with great footwork and that her age (41) matters less because she doesn't rely on speed or take much damage. He points out that Santos lacks power, which plays into Holm's style, and that Santos is coming off a two-year layoff after having a baby. He believes Holm should dominate and that the line should be wider, but he is wary of betting women's MMA due to past upsets.

"Holly Holm is my most confident pick on this entire card."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Holly Holm

Big Brady picks Holly Holm but with low confidence, citing red flags on both sides. He notes Holm's age (41) and decline in her last fight against Ketlen Vieira, as well as a layoff. On Santos' side, she just had a baby and got married, which Brady views as potential distractions. He expects Holm to win by holding Santos against the cage for three rounds in a boring decision, but calls the fight a 'big pass' for betting.

Holm by decision

"holms gonna go out there and hold Santa's against the cage for three rounds decision to win there you go but I would not be betting on this fight"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Holly Holm

Cody picks Holly Holm but is hesitant due to her age and potential decline. He notes Holm has shifted to a wrestling-heavy game plan and is effective in the clinch. He believes Holm should win but doesn't like the -250 moneyline, preferring Holm by decision at -115. He acknowledges the Pat Mayo theory of betting women's underdogs but still leans Holm. He mentions Holm's durability and Santos coming off a KO loss.

Holly Holm by decision; over 2.5 rounds

"I would personally bet Holly Holm by decision because I don't want to bet Hollywood minus 250 straight up"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Holly Holm

Connor picks Holm because Santos is fragile and tends to revert to clinching when pressured, which plays into Holm's strength. He notes Holm's striking has slowed but she remains strong in the clinch and hard to hurt. He expects Holm to hold Santos on the fence for three rounds and win a decision.

Mentions odds: Holm opened -200, currently -238; Santos opened +150, currently +193. Notes line is getting wider.

"I got to just pick Holly home to hold her on the fence for three rounds and for Yana Konitsuka to not be able to make anything that makes it look like she's won the fight."

MMA Vivisection

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Holly Holm

Jacob also picks Holm, agreeing she is the better fighter everywhere. He notes that Holm is not a finisher and the fight likely goes to decision, which could be risky with Texas judges. He mentions that Santos might be aggressive and that the optics could favor her if she pressures, but he thinks Holm should dominate. He says he found plus money on Holm and has a bet on her, but does not specify the exact prop.

Found plus money on Holly Holm (specific prop not stated)

"I found plus money for Holly Holm that I absolutely love."

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Holly Holm

The host expects another veteran performance from Holly Holm, believing she will grind against Yana Santos against the cage, utilize her superior strength and power, drag the fight to the ground, and do good work from top position. He notes that Santos is coming off a layoff after having a baby, which adds uncertainty. He thinks Holm's physical fitness and longevity are exceptional for her age, and that strength advantage will be key. He predicts Holm wins by decision.

"I think we're in store for another veteran performance here from Holly Holm"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Holly Holm

The Guru picks Holm, citing her recent wins over Aldana and Pennington, and notes that Santos hasn't fought since 2021 and had a child. He expects Holm to use her athleticism and cage control to win a decision, though he admits it's a sad prediction.

"probably just Holly Holm holding her against a cage... I'm gonna go Holly home pushing her against a cage"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Holly Holm

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Holm's clinch strength hasn't decayed and Santos lacks confidence to avoid a Holm fight. He doubts Santos can win unless she proves she can overcome Holm's physicality. He sees it as a fight where Holm's strength and clinch work will be decisive.

Mentions odds: Holm -238, Santos +193. Notes the line is getting wider.

"You got to pick home Santos. She really would have to prove that she can win a fight like this."

MMA Vivisection

Expert Picks (6)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

over 2.5 rounds (potential bet)

"I think it's a pretty straightforward spot for Carol right I think Jana's gonna be the better striker in technique but Carol's gonna be too busy"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

"I'm gonna pick Carol HOSA to win this fight I'll say she wins this fight by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

"calrose has the favorite yeah I'm gonna have to back that"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

"I like hosted a win but I don't like it enough at these odds"

Half the Battle

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

Rosa by decision at -115

"I can understand why she's a minus 170 favorite am I going to get to that from a betting perspective you know me probably not"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Karol Rosa

"I'm gonna go with Carol Rosa here I actually think she's quite technically sound as a fighter"

THE MMA GURU

Karol Rosa

Yana Santos

Career Averages - Karol Rosa

Career Averages - Yana Santos

Karol Rosa

Yana Santos

Karol Rosa - Fight History

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Expert Picks (6)