Career Averages - Johnny Walker
Career Averages - Anthony Smith
Johnny Walker
Anthony Smith
Johnny Walker - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 34 of 73 | 46% | 34 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 42 of 80 | 52% | 42 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 34 of 73 | 46% | 10 of 35 | 7 of 17 | 17 of 21 | 34 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 42 of 80 | 52% | 7 of 31 | 6 of 11 | 29 of 38 | 41 of 78 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 10 of 19 | 52% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 17 of 28 | 60% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 18 | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 9 of 19 | 47% | 4 of 12 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 13 of 28 | 46% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 12 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dominick Reyes | 15 of 35 | 42% | 1 of 12 | 2 of 8 | 12 of 15 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 12 of 24 | 50% | 2 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 11 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo hesitantly picks Dominick Reyes, calling him the more technical fighter despite both having poor chins. He notes Reyes revived his career but is still chinny, while Johnny Walker is wild and dangerous. He admits his instincts said Walker but went against them, finding the fight hard to bet on.
Big Brady calls this a battle of chins, noting both have poor striking defense and power. He favors Reyes because his losses are to higher-level competition (Jones, Procházka, Błachowicz, Ulberg) compared to Walker's losses to Oezdemir, Ankalaev, Hill, and Anderson. He predicts a first-round knockout by Reyes but admits it's a toss-up.
Cody also picks Reyes, citing Walker's poor defense and recent sparring knockout. He thinks Reyes' straight punches will land first and knock out Walker, but acknowledges it's a volatile fight.
Connor picks Reyes confidently, arguing that Johnny Walker has ruined his career by becoming overly technical and losing his natural aggression. He notes that Reyes is still fast and throws long straight shots that should topple Walker. Connor also points out that Walker's tendency to throw wild techniques and his poor fight IQ will play into Reyes' hands. He acknowledges that Reyes could get caught by a big punch, but believes Walker will avoid throwing it for as long as possible.
Daniel Vreeland picks Johnny Walker as a slight lean, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes that stylistically, Walker's counter-punching and reach advantage may give him an edge, but both fighters have questionable chins. He ultimately goes with Walker to play devil's advocate.
Daniel sees this as a toss-up but gives Reyes the edge due to being slightly more technical and accomplished. He acknowledges Walker's danger but thinks Reyes has historically been better.
The host leans towards Walker because Reyes has been knocked out multiple times recently and Walker has significant power. He sees the fight as likely ending in a Walker KO or Reyes decision, and given Reyes' chin issues, Walker's path seems more probable. However, he does not rate Walker highly and finds it difficult to trust either fighter.
James picks Johnny Walker, believing his unorthodox style can catch Reyes, who relies on athleticism. He notes both fighters have questionable chins and expects a knockout, possibly early.
This is a coin flip fight between two power punchers with shaky chins. Reyes is the more technical striker but his durability is a major concern. Walker has a reach and height advantage and can use lateral movement and calf kicks to set up his power. If Walker lands first, he likely finishes Reyes. The line is close, so taking the plus money on Walker is the value play.
Paul leans towards Reyes, preferring his striking technique and believing he is the cleaner striker. He acknowledges the fight is highly volatile and not very confident.
The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes over Johnny Walker. He thinks Walker is goofy and will make a mistake, allowing Reyes to counter with an uppercut or straight shot. He notes Reyes has good finishing instincts, as seen against Jacoby. He predicts a KO in the second round, possibly late in the first.
Zane picks Reyes, echoing Connor's view that Walker has deteriorated under SBG Ireland. He notes that Reyes should be able to sit down on one-twos, check kicks, and stay composed while Walker throws himself wildly forward or backward. Zane also mentions that Walker's coach Owen Roddy hasn't helped, and that Walker's game has lost all cohesion. He believes Reyes' speed and straight punches will be enough to win, though he acknowledges that Reyes can't be fully trusted.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 1 | 50 of 67 | 74% | 51 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Zhang Mingyang | 0 | 20 of 47 | 42% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Zhang Mingyang | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 20 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:21 | |
| 2 | Johnny Walker | 1 | 41 of 45 | 91% | 41 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Zhang Mingyang | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 50 of 67 | 74% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 5 | 13 of 13 | 15 of 26 | 2 of 4 | 33 of 37 |
| Zhang Mingyang | 20 of 47 | 42% | 8 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 39 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 9 of 22 | 40% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhang Mingyang | 12 of 30 | 40% | 6 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 22 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Johnny Walker | 41 of 45 | 91% | 33 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 37 |
| Zhang Mingyang | 8 of 17 | 47% | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The moment of truth has arrived, as Zhang stakes his 12-fight win streak—the last four in the Octagon—against Walker in an attempt to take a huge step towards becoming China’s second UFC champion. Walker, for his part, seeks to prove he has made strides in fight IQ and defense to go with his outlandish physical gifts and offensive arsenal. In an eminently sensible move, Marc Goddard, the largest referee available, has pulled main event duty. Zhang reaches out for a glove touch. Walker trots across the cage, ducks under his foe’s outstretched hand and shoots for a takedown. It isn’t terribly sporting, but more importantly it backfires, as he ends up with Zhang on top of him in his guard. Zhang tries to capitalize with some elbow strikes, but Walker manages to survive the miscue with little damage. Zhang lets him return to his feet and hurts him with a right hand. Zhang gives chase as Walker stumbles to the fence, and is forced to back off as Walker whiffs with a huge haymaker. Walker comes up short with a flying knee. Zhang clinches and drives Walker to the fence. Two minutes to go and they finally separate. Zhang is still in pursuit, but ends up chasing the Brazilian around the cage rather than cutting angles. Walker shoots a long double-leg and Zhang snuffs it out easily. Zhang rocks Walker with a big elbow inside. Walker backs off and returns to sliding around the perimeter, Zhang in tow. Zhang slaps a high kick off the side of Walker’s head at the clapper.
10-9 Zhang.
Round 2
Zhang is the aggressor to open Round 2, but Walker continues to move laterally, refusing to be trapped against the fence. The pace has slowed a bit, a minute into the round, but Zhang steps forward and lands two straight right hands that make the big man stumble. Walker creeps forward and meets Zhang in the center of the cage.
Walker lands a hard leg kick, then another. Zhang is in trouble, having taken some kind of serious damage from the kicks. Walker connects with another low kick, but Zhang is already on his way down. Walker pounces on his stricken foe, delivering some huge punches and elbows, and the suspense is suddenly over whether he will manage to get himself disqualified, as the blows rain all over Zhang’s head, while he grounds and ungrounds himself.
Enough legal blows get through—and no blatantly illegal ones—that the outcome becomes obvious to all, and Goddard moves in to halt the beating. A wild end to a wild fight.
The Official Result
Johnny Walker def. Mingyang Zhang R2 2:37 via TKO (Punches and Elbows)
Angelo is very confident in Zhang Mingyang, calling him a dangerous finisher on feet and ground. He criticizes Johnny Walker for losing his craziness after training at SBG Ireland and becoming chinny. He thinks this is a showcase for the hometown guy and that Walker will get knocked out. He says Mingyang should be a much heavier favorite.
Big Brady picks Zhang Mingyang to win by first-round knockout, stating that Johnny Walker has a glass chin and has been knocked out six times. He notes that Zhang hits very hard and that Walker is unlikely to wrestle given his history. He believes the fight will be a striking match and that Zhang will knock Walker out early. He does not like the -310 line or the props.
Connor believes Johnny Walker is a broken fighter after training at SBG Ireland, where he lost his aggressive brawling style and now moves around aimlessly without a clear game plan. He notes that Walker's last three fights show him getting annihilated, and that Zhang Mingyang, while unproven, is a big, fast, aggressive brawler who will likely just throw punches until Walker gets knocked out. Connor thinks this fight will be less competitive than Walker's loss to Anthony Smith.
The host notes that all 19 of Mingyang's victories have come in the first round and expects him to continue that trend against Johnny Walker, who has comically horrible durability at this stage. He thinks Mingyang will take the pace immediately, dictate range, and land big shots to get Walker out in the first round by knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Mingyang to win by first-round KO. He expresses no trust in Johnny Walker's chin, noting that Walker gets knocked out repeatedly. He highlights that all of Zhang's wins are first-round KOs and that he found the punch on Brenson Ribeiro, who is tall and rangy. He believes Zhang is a master at finding those shots and that Walker is chinny enough to get put down. He acknowledges that Walker might try to grapple, but expects the fight to be decided in the pocket.
Zane agrees with Connor that Johnny Walker is broken, citing his lack of direction and inability to execute a neutralizing game plan. He points out that Walker's footwork is poor and he can't hold opponents off with range tools, making him an easy target for Zhang's aggression. Zane expects Zhang to win by knockout, as Walker's fight response has turned into a flight response.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 2 | 37 of 67 | 55% | 37 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 2 | 37 of 67 | 55% | 37 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 15 of 33 | 45% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 37 of 67 | 55% | 22 of 49 | 9 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 33 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 15 of 33 | 45% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 37 of 67 | 55% | 22 of 49 | 9 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 33 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Johnny Walker, citing his size, athleticism, speed, and power. He thinks Walker's unpredictability and creativity will be key. He acknowledges Walker's chin issues and unreliability but believes the height and athleticism advantage will be too much for Oezdemir. He does not have a bet on the fight but notes the odds are close, making it a good value play.
Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir hesitantly, calling it a coin flip. He favors Oezdemir's durability and output over Johnny Walker's inconsistency. Brady notes Walker's tendency to be hesitant after knockouts and expects a close, possibly boring decision. He acknowledges that anything can happen in a Johnny Walker fight.
Cody picks Walker, citing his improved fight IQ under SBG Ireland, using length and distance to outpoint opponents. He notes Oezdemir's reliance on power and low output, and believes Walker can avoid the big shot and win a decision or late finish.
Daniel Vreeland leans slightly towards Johnny Walker, citing his unorthodox attacks and athleticism. He notes Oezdemir's gas tank issues and believes Walker can cause problems with range and unpredictability. However, he acknowledges Walker's chin vulnerability and the possibility of getting knocked out.
Jacob picks Oezdemir, citing his durability and power. He does not trust Johnny Walker's chin and believes Oezdemir will eventually land. He notes that Johnny Walker as a dog (+150 or more) would be worth a bet, but as a favorite he cannot pick him. He thinks Oezdemir's durability will be the difference.
JP picks Walker, citing his size, power, and unorthodox style. He expects a KO but acknowledges it could go to decision. He doubts Oezdemir's grappling ability. Brevan agrees, noting Oezdemir's experience and calf kicks but believes Walker's size and explosiveness will be too much. He predicts Walker by KO/TKO or decision, and mentions Walker's need for a comeback win after losses to Ankalaev.
Paul does not make a clear winner pick but suggests the over 1.5 rounds as a play. He notes both fighters have become more methodical and that Walker's new style may lead to a boring decision. He doesn't commit to a side.
The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir over Johnny Walker, expressing frustration with Walker's lack of fundamentals. He notes that Walker has not learned to jab despite his reach advantage and often puts himself in bad positions. He believes Oezdemir is composed, has good recent form, and will likely catch Walker with a low kick heavy game plan and finish him by TKO. He admits Walker could win at any time but trusts Oezdemir's chin and discipline.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 39 of 58 | 67% | 39 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 24 of 71 | 33% | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 22 of 25 | 88% | 22 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 39 of 58 | 67% | 8 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 29 | 38 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Johnny Walker | 24 of 71 | 33% | 2 of 34 | 3 of 6 | 19 of 31 | 24 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 17 of 33 | 51% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 17 | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 15 of 50 | 30% | 2 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 11 of 19 | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 22 of 25 | 88% | 6 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 12 | 21 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Johnny Walker | 9 of 21 | 42% | 0 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 12 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, expecting him to avoid Johnny Walker's wild strikes, clinch, and take him down to wear him out. He notes Ankalaev's wrestling backup and thinks he is desperate for a win. He finds the -500 odds too steep to bet given Walker's danger and Ankalaev's recent no-contest and draw.
Big Brady believes Ankalaev can win however he wants, but prefers the wrestling path. He notes Ankalaev's durability and wrestling are superior, while Walker is chinny and unpredictable. He expects Ankalaev to control the fight and win by decision, avoiding prolonged striking exchanges.
Cody picks Ankalaev despite acknowledging his tendency to make fights closer than necessary. He notes that in the brief first fight, Walker had nothing for Ankalaev and that Ankalaev is clearly the more skilled fighter. He believes Ankalaev will win even if he fights a stupid game plan, citing durability and overall skill advantage.
Cody picks Ankalaev to win by decision, noting that Ankalaev won the first fight and can mix in wrestling for cage control. He believes Ankalaev is faster and has a better gas tank, and that Pereira is 38 and unlikely to make major adjustments. He expects another close fight but edges it to Ankalaev.
Daniel Vreeland picks Magomed Ankalaev to defeat Johnny Walker. He acknowledges Ankalaev's well-rounded skill set and size, but notes he sometimes underwhelms. He believes Ankalaev will make adjustments after the first fight, where Walker targeted his legs. Vreeland is confident Ankalaev can get the job done wherever the fight goes, though he worries about Walker's athleticism and unorthodox attacks.
James picks Ankalaev to win via KO, citing that Ankalaev hurt Pereira in round two of their first fight and nearly knocked him out. He believes Pereira's chin may give out this time, and Ankalaev could also secure takedowns and dominate on the ground. James notes that Pereira's calf kicks were effective in the first fight but thinks Ankalaev may have adjusted. He also likes the under 4.5 rounds.
Magomed Ankalaev is a smooth, technical striker who is comfortable in both stances and has a strong clinch and wrestling game. He showed in the first fight that he could take Walker down and control him. Johnny Walker is on a three-fight winning streak and looks confident, but he has historically struggled against technical fighters and can be overwhelmed by grappling. Ankalaev's discipline and wrestling should allow him to neutralize Walker's power and grind out a decision. The over 1.5 rounds is a good play given Ankalaev's grappling approach.
Paul leans towards Ankalaev but acknowledges the fight is close. He notes that Pereira took rounds off and that Ankalaev's wrestling, even if not successful, gave him cage control. He thinks the line is too wide and prefers the decision prop for Pereira, but ultimately sticks with Ankalaev.
Paul picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights close. He notes that Ankalaev has the skills to beat anyone but often ignores the wrestling path to victory. He believes Ankalaev is durable enough to take Walker's big shots and will win even if he fights a stupid game plan.
The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as an underdog, citing Walker's finishing ability and reach advantage (82 inches vs 75). He notes that Ankalaev may be frustrated by recent events (draw with Jan, no-contest with Walker) and that Walker got back up quickly from a takedown in the first fight. He predicts Walker will get a TKO/KO, benefiting from Ankalaev's potential emotional state.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 19 | 68% | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Johnny Walker | 14 of 27 | 51% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 19 | 68% | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Johnny Walker | 14 of 27 | 51% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, calling him one of the best light heavyweights. He thinks Ankalaev will slow the pace and fight his fight. He notes Johnny Walker's danger if he makes it ugly, but expects Ankalaev to earn a title shot. He considers Ankalaev a safe bet.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision, though he expects a boring fight. He notes that Ankalaev has good wrestling, as seen against Jan Blachowicz, and that Johnny Walker struggled on the ground against Nikita Krylov. Brady believes Ankalaev will mix in takedowns, control Walker, and win a dull decision.
Cody picks Ankalaev, emphasizing that he should use his wrestling to neutralize Walker. He notes that Ankalaev has excellent wrestling and ground control, and that Walker is inconsistent and can be taken down. Cody believes that even if Ankalaev fights to his opponent's level, he should edge out a decision or get a finish. He also mentions the Abu Dhabi factor favoring Ankalaev in a close fight.
Daniel picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, acknowledging Ankalaev's superior technical skills and experience but expressing concern that he sometimes fights down to his competition. He notes Ankalaev's vulnerabilities, such as being dropped by Thiago Santos and leg kicks from Jan Błachowicz, and thinks Johnny Walker's leg kick game plan could be effective. However, he believes Ankalaev is on a different level and should win if he is aggressive, but he is not confident enough to bet at -350.
Ankalaev is one of the most complete fighters at 205 lbs, with high-level striking and wrestling. He can mix in takedowns to wear on Walker's cardio and slow him down. Walker is explosive but when unable to set the pace, he slows down and gives up positions. Expects Ankalaev to win a decision and earn another title shot.
Paul picks Ankalaev but is hesitant, noting that Ankalaev often fights to the level of his competition and has had close fights with lesser opponents. He worries that Ankalaev may not use his wrestling early and could get into a striking match where Walker's reach is an advantage. However, Paul believes Ankalaev's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi location give him the edge in a close decision.
The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as a big underdog, citing a feeling that Walker will finish Ankalaev in a weird way. He notes Walker's 7-inch reach advantage and wild style that Ankalaev hasn't faced recently. He recalls Ankalaev being dropped by Thiago Santos and thinks Walker's takedown defense is underrated. He believes Ankalaev doesn't use his grappling unless losing and that Walker's momentum and size will be key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 38 of 92 | 41% | 41 of 95 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 92 of 192 | 47% | 99 of 204 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 12 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 28 of 58 | 48% | 28 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Johnny Walker | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 31 of 59 | 52% | 31 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Johnny Walker | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 11 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 33 of 75 | 44% | 40 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 38 of 92 | 41% | 19 of 64 | 10 of 17 | 9 of 11 | 38 of 91 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 92 of 192 | 47% | 32 of 117 | 9 of 19 | 51 of 56 | 81 of 178 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 10 of 22 | 45% | 8 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 28 of 58 | 48% | 16 of 40 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 11 | 19 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Johnny Walker | 18 of 34 | 52% | 8 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 31 of 59 | 52% | 7 of 32 | 4 of 7 | 20 of 20 | 31 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Johnny Walker | 10 of 36 | 27% | 3 of 21 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 33 of 75 | 44% | 9 of 45 | 2 of 5 | 22 of 25 | 31 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks Johnny Walker, citing his size, speed, power, and unorthodox striking. He thinks Walker is the more dangerous fighter and notes Anthony Smith may be focused on his post-fight career. He mentions Walker has only shot two takedowns in the UFC but got both, and could use that to surprise Smith. He expects the fight to go to the second round and likes the over 1.5 rounds if available.
Big Brady sees this as a true pick'em fight, calling both fighters untrustworthy. He expects a striking fight, as Walker's takedown defense is good enough to keep it standing. Brady gives Walker the power advantage and believes he can land a big knockout shot, but worries about Walker's chin. He picks Walker to knock out Smith in the first round, but calls it his least confident pick on the card.
Cody picks Anthony Smith but is hesitant due to Smith's age and 50+ pro fights. He notes Smith's superior wrestling and jiu-jitsu, and his ability to survive early storms and finish late. However, he worries about Smith's leg injury and layoff, and acknowledges Walker's explosiveness and power. He sees Smith's jab and ring IQ as key advantages.
Connor picks Anthony Smith despite reservations, mainly because he dislikes Johnny Walker's move to SBG Ireland and feels it's a bad idea. He acknowledges Smith's vulnerability to larger fighters but thinks Smith's technical consistency and ability to take advantage of Walker's self-destructive tendencies could win. He notes the line is dead even and admits he might be wrong.
Daniel Levi picks Johnny Walker despite concerns about Walker's chin and durability. He believes Walker will be winning the fight until he either gets his arm raised or gets caught, as Smith's style relies on comebacks and opportunistic finishes. Levi notes that Smith is a veteran with many finishes but does not see Smith dominating the fight; instead, he expects Walker to be ahead on the scorecards or land a knockout. He acknowledges the risk due to Walker's history of being knocked out and his tall man defense, but ultimately favors Walker's athleticism and recent focus.
Smith is back at Factory X with Mark Montoya, motivated after a loss. His durability allows him to roll with Walker's shots, and he can pressure, land combinations, and counter Walker's wild striking. Smith can open up a finish via knockout or submission. Walker's durability issues and tentative moments may be exploited. Smith's experience and re-alignment with his camp are key.
Paul slightly favors Anthony Smith, calling it a fair pick'em. He notes both fighters can crack and Walker is more likely to finish early, but if Smith can secure takedowns and hang around, he can capitalize. He acknowledges the volatility and question marks on both sides, but edges toward Smith due to his well-rounded game.
The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker, citing his athleticism and reach advantage. He notes that Anthony Smith has looked hesitant and stiff on the feet recently, and his body appears less toned, suggesting decline. He believes Walker's momentum and finishing potential will be too much for Smith, predicting a TKO in the first round.
Zane leans Johnny Walker based on a 'vibe pick,' feeling that Anthony Smith will be uncomfortable fighting someone as huge as Walker. He notes that Smith tends to gas and fold when things go wrong, and Walker's size and reach (6 inches longer) could bully Smith. He acknowledges Smith's technical striking but thinks Walker's athleticism and size will cause Smith to freak out.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 1 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 1 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 16 of 20 | 80% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 16 of 20 | 80% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 |
Big Brady picks Johnny Walker to knock out Paul Craig in the first round. He notes Walker is much bigger, more explosive, and has huge power on the feet. Craig's striking is not good and he will likely pull guard, but Walker should disengage and keep it standing. If Walker goes to the mat, Craig is dangerous with submissions, but Walker can also finish with ground and pound. He trusts Walker to get the knockout but warns of sweating if it hits the mat.
Cody picks Johnny Walker confidently, noting Walker's striking advantage and improved fight IQ under John Kavanagh. He says Walker can dictate range, use footwork, and potshot Paul Craig. He acknowledges Craig's dangerous BJJ but thinks Walker will keep the fight standing and avoid the ground. He mentions Walker's power and ability to knock out Craig. He also notes Craig's poor striking and takedown defense.
Connor picks Paul Craig, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Walker's new passive style is worse than his old reckless one, and that Craig will pressure and likely land clean shots. Connor also mentions that Walker has never been submitted but that Craig is a submission specialist who could catch him.
Paul picks Johnny Walker confidently, noting Walker's striking advantage and improved fight IQ. He says Walker can keep the fight standing and avoid Craig's BJJ. He mentions Craig's poor striking and takedown defense, and says Walker has the power to knock him out. He acknowledges Craig's submission wins over top guys but thinks Walker will fight smart and avoid the ground.
The Guru is confident Walker will KO Craig. He highlights Walker's underrated grappling, noting he reversed Krylov and has improved rapidly. Craig has no striking threat, so Walker will be confident on the feet. The Guru predicts Walker will rock Craig, force a bad takedown, and finish with ground and pound, similar to the Ryan Spann fight.
Zane picks Paul Craig, citing that Craig has a reliable bag of tricks and will be aggressive, while Johnny Walker has regressed under SPG coaching, becoming passive and lacking a functional style. Zane notes that grappling is light heavyweight secret sauce, and Craig is a submission artist who can exploit Walker's poor grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 17 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 2:10 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 17 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 17 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 2:10 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 17 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
It’s time for the main card, with the only fight that did not change one day ago. It opens with a light heavyweight battle between finishers, and a ranked spot is on the line for the victor. The high-flying Walker (18-7, 4-4 UFC) will try to right the ship and get things going again, while powerful Moldovan Cutelaba (16-7-1, 1 NC; 5-6-1 UFC) wants to keep things afloat with a .500 record in the company. Stoppage rates of 94% for Walker and 87% for Cutelaba likely mean that referee Mike Beltran will be busy in this matchup, and the two intense 205ers do still touch gloves. Walker pokes out a few jabs with his range advantage, and Cutelaba fires off a head kick at him. Walker looks shocked, and he responds with a high kick of his own. “The Hulk” catches it and smashes him down to the ground with a slam. Cutelaba pounds on his opponent from the guard, and Walker scoots his way to the fence and grabs it to try to improve position. Beltran will not let him get away with it, and he shouts at the Brazilian to knock it off. Even in a close guard, Cutelaba uses his forearm and elbow to grind on Walker and score a few shots. Walker grabs the cage again, and he lets it go when Cutelaba belts him on the chin. Walker frames off with his feet, and he pulls on the wire once more to earn another severe warning. Exploding out of the bad position, Walker flips over, and he falls into an armbar setup. Cutelaba immediately moves to his knees, and he stands up even while Walker hangs onto him from behind. Cutelaba stomps the feet of his opponent, and Walker lifts him and drops him down hard. As soon as they land, the Brazilian sets up a rear-naked choke, but it is not under the chin. Cutelaba does not go away from a neck crank, and he grits it out and fights the grip. The Brazilian switches the hands and goes for a rear-naked choke on the other side, and Cutelaba fights tooth-and-nail to preserve his neck. Walker keeps hooks in instead of utilizing a body triangle, and he stretches Cutelaba out and wraps up a rear-naked choke. Cutelaba turns to his side and holds his chin down, but the forearm of Walker sneaks beneath it and squeezes tightly. Cutelaba’s face turns a dark shade of pink and he begins to gurgle from the vice-like grip, and there is no way out. Before he passes out from the submission, Cutelaba taps out, and Walker lets go and moves to an open area of the cage to start doing the worm. Walker breakdances a little more, but does not get reckless and injure himself like in the past. This is an important one for Walker, who records his first finish in nearly two years while landing his first sub since 2017.
The Official Result
Johnny Walker def. Ion Cutelaba R1 4:37 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Ion Cuțelaba, noting that Johnny Walker has been ruined by SBG Ireland and is no longer the creative fighter he once was. He thinks Walker will be low volume and hesitant, allowing Cuțelaba to get takedowns. He mentions Cuțelaba took Ryan Spann down three times, and Spann took Walker down, so Cuțelaba should dominate with wrestling.
Big Brady picks Johnny Walker as a dog, calling the line nonsensical. He argues Walker's losses came against elite fighters like Jamal Hill and Thiago Santos, while Cuțelaba has poor control despite good wrestling. He notes Walker's size and strength make him hard to take down and hold down, and predicts Walker wins by first-round knockout, though he admits both are chinny and someone is getting knocked out.
Cody picks Johnny Walker as a dog, despite not trusting him. He notes that Cuțelaba overexerts and gasses, and that Walker has a reach advantage and can dictate range. He is concerned about Walker's style under John Kavanagh but thinks the point-fighting approach could work. He says he will not bet Walker but picks him for the show.
Daniel Levi leans Ion Cutelaba but with very low confidence. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation, noting both fighters are unreliable glass cannons. He points to Cutelaba's wrestling advantage and power, but questions whether Cutelaba will use wrestling or brawl. He also mentions Walker's confidence issues after knockout losses and his own chin problems. Levi says he can't trust either guy and won't bet the -200 on Cutelaba.
Jacob calls it a coin toss but leans toward Cuțelaba because the path to victory is clear via wrestling. He notes both fighters have no chins and do stupid things, making it unpredictable. He placed a bet on under 1.5 rounds at plus money for premium members, as he expects a finish.
The host picks Ion Cuțelaba to win by knockout but is not confident at -200. He notes Cuțelaba's power and durability advantage, but thinks Walker's size could make it difficult for Cuțelaba to hold him down. He sees Walker as a live dog and won't bet the moneyline.
Paul also picks Johnny Walker, but is very hesitant. He notes that Cuțelaba has cardio issues and is undersized, and that Walker has the reach and flashy techniques to pick him apart. However, he acknowledges that Cuțelaba could land a big shot and knock Walker out. He says he is 'super scared' of this fight.
The MMA Guru picks Ion Cuțelaba to win by first-round TKO. He describes Walker coming out with a flying attack, Cuțelaba moving away and wagging his finger. Cuțelaba chews at the inside leg, shoots a takedown, but Walker explodes up. Against the cage, Cuțelaba lands punches on Walker, who takes them but is known to be vulnerable. They separate, Cuțelaba fakes a takedown, throws an overhand, rocks Walker, and finishes with ground and pound.
Anthony Smith - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Zhang Mingyang | 0 | 63 of 81 | 77% | 76 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Smith | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Zhang Mingyang | 0 | 63 of 81 | 77% | 76 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smith | 10 of 21 | 47% | 8 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhang Mingyang | 63 of 81 | 77% | 42 of 58 | 6 of 8 | 15 of 15 | 35 of 46 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 31 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Smith | 10 of 21 | 47% | 8 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhang Mingyang | 63 of 81 | 77% | 42 of 58 | 6 of 8 | 15 of 15 | 35 of 46 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 31 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zhang (-500), Smith (+380)
Round 1
The purported last dance for storied veteran Smith (38-21, 13-11 UFC) has arrived, as he plans on calling it quits at the conclusion of his 60th pro outing, win or lose. Getting the honor of facing Smith on the way out, Zhang (18-6, 2-0 UFC) is a massive betting favorite having won his last 11 bouts by first-round stoppage. If that is soon to become 12, or if Smith can pull one more rabbit out of the hat, referee Jason Herzog will be the first to know. The emotional Smith does not touch gloves before getting down to it, and everyone in the building sharply inhales ahead of what’s about to come. Zhang attempts to strike first, with a high kick that is blocked and a low kick that is not. Zhang kicks the lead leg two more times, and a third flusters Smith and forces him to engage. Smith wings punches that do not land cleanly, and Zhang kicks his front leg again. The low kicks have already done some damage, as he is preemptively lifting his leg up to defend against them. Zhang has a few punches pound into the guard, and Smith ties him up. Zhang scores short knees on the inside, and Smith leans his weight on his opponent and frames off for an elbow that never comes. Zhang escapes, and Smith follows him and walks through low kicks and elbows. Zhang wraps a stern right hand around the guard, and his leg kicks continue scoring. Smith gets off an elbow through the guard, and he is quickly answered by a low kick. Smith jams another elbow on the dome, and Zhang gives him one back and slashes open a cut on the top of his head. Blood flows fast down his head, and he shakes his head to get it out of his eyes. Smith wipes his eyes out as Zhang keeps striking, and the nasty elbows from Zhang find their home on his cheek again and again. Smith says enough is enough when it comes to those strikes, and he shoots in for a naked takedown from afar. Zhang lands a strike to the back of the head, and Smith pulls guard to drag him into the grappling world. Smith sits up, and Herzog tells Zhang he is down and not to kick or knee him in the head. Smith takes some shots, and he sits up and gets bowled over with punches and elbows that continue battering him.
Herzog tells Smith to move, eventually raising his voice to scream that he needs to do something. Giving Smith way more time than most would be, Herzog allows Zhang to beat Smith down and spray blood all over the mat. Smith shells up on his side, the damage suddenly a bit too much for him. Smith falls to his back, and Zhang clobbers him until Herzog has seen enough
. Smith sits up and calls for a bucket, and he stands up and gives a middle finger to someone in the audience. “Lionheart” marches to the cage wall and shouts down someone in the crowd, and everyone looks around confusedly while Zhang tries to calm his opponent down. Smith shakes out of it, and he raises Zhang’s arm in the air to congratulate him for crushing his final moment to shine. MMA is a cruel sport at times, but as Smith fades away, it is possible—however unlikely—that China has a new star on its hands in the form of “Mountain Tiger” and his 100% finish rate. Zhang is now a ranked fighter, while Smith takes his gloves off to complete his retirement ceremony. Whether this is his final fight or not, the choice remains in the hands of the 36-year-old former title challenger.
The Official Result
Mingyang Zhang def. Anthony Smith R1 4:03 via TKO (Elbows)
Angelo picks Zhang Mingyang, believing his power and grappling will be too much for an aging Anthony Smith. He notes that Mingyang is a grappler at core with great takedowns, and that Smith's grappling is not a threat. He is slightly nervous because Mingyang is untested, but he has him in a parlay.
Big Brady picks Zhang Mingyang, citing Anthony Smith's decline and poor reaction to punches. He expects Zhang's power to land a big shot and finish Smith early. He notes Smith has been counted out before but still favors Zhang by first-round knockout.
Connor picks Zhang because he believes Anthony Smith is a head case who has been declining and reverting to his old, losing ways. Smith's recent fights show him getting discouraged easily and running out of ideas. Zhang is a durable brawler who can soak up damage and extend exchanges, and Smith's current mental state makes him vulnerable to Zhang's pressure and power.
The host leans Mingyang with low confidence, noting that if Mingyang doesn't get a first-round KO, Smith could take over late or get a submission. He expects Mingyang to find a shot, put Smith on wobbly legs, and finish with ground and pound in the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Mingyang to win by TKO in the first round. He is very high on Mingyang, calling him a real deal prospect with knockout power and sharp technique. He criticizes Anthony Smith's predictable style, emotional state (crying on walkout), and lack of a serious mindset. He believes Mingyang will overwhelm Smith early.
Zane picks Zhang, noting that even the worst version of Anthony Smith has the tools to beat Zhang, but Smith's emotional struggles and tendency to shut down make him unreliable. Zhang is fearless, powerful, and will fight without hesitation, which is a bad matchup for the current version of Smith. Zane also mentions that Smith's recent performances show him getting discouraged and losing focus.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 121 of 162 | 74% | 172 of 232 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:51 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 48 of 76 | 63% | 53 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 73 of 86 | 84% | 119 of 150 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:51 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 121 of 162 | 74% | 110 of 149 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 48 of 75 | 17 of 22 | 56 of 65 |
| Anthony Smith | 21 of 46 | 45% | 14 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 48 of 76 | 63% | 38 of 64 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 47 of 73 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 21 of 46 | 45% | 14 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 73 of 86 | 84% | 72 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 19 | 56 of 65 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Anthony Smith, arguing that Smith has been more active and fought tougher competition recently, while Reyes has been knocked out repeatedly. He believes Smith is more durable and technically sound. However, he emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick and not a betting recommendation. He notes both fighters are not durable, but Smith may be more so.
Cody picks Reyes, believing he still has something left after his win over Jacoby. He notes Smith's tendency to fade after the first round and thinks Reyes' speed and accuracy will lead to a late TKO or decision. He acknowledges chin concerns but favors Reyes.
Connor picks Anthony Smith because he believes Reyes has not addressed the technical and confidence issues that caused his losing streak. He notes that Reyes' win over Dustin Jacoby was a 50/50 brawl where he landed first, and that Reyes has not shown any new tools or adjustments. Connor argues that Smith, despite his own confidence problems, is a tough veteran who will not fold easily and can capitalize on Reyes' mistakes. He also points out that Smith has never looked completely lost in a fight, unlike Reyes during his skid.
Daniel believes Reyes is the better fighter and will dictate the fight. He notes Smith's decline and slow speed, while Reyes regained confidence with a knockout win. He warns about Reyes' chin but expects him to avoid getting caught.
Reyes got back to winning ways by knocking out Dustin Jacoby due to Jacoby's over-aggressiveness. Smith likely won't be as aggressive, so Reyes will touch him up from distance over 15 minutes and win on the scorecards.
Paul leans toward Reyes but is hesitant due to his knockout losses. He notes Smith's durability and early-round power, but thinks Reyes' speed and youth give him the edge. He considers the line too high and passes on betting.
The MMA Guru picks Reyes, calling Anthony Smith terrible and lacking talent. He believes Reyes has the game plan ability (having beaten Jon Jones) and will drill low kicks. He thinks Smith cannot take Reyes down or knock him out, and predicts a vintage performance with a TKO in round one or two against the cage via ground and pound.
Zane picks Reyes but with low confidence, stating that if Reyes is confident, he should beat Smith easily. He notes that Reyes has the physical tools and style to pressure Smith and take him down, but he is concerned that Reyes has not made any technical improvements during his losing streak. Zane also points out that Smith is a tough out who can survive early adversity and come back, and that Reyes' confidence is fragile. He ultimately leans Reyes because he believes Reyes has more future potential, but he is not confident in the pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 51 of 93 | 54% | 51 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 100 of 185 | 54% | 103 of 188 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 48 of 73 | 65% | 51 of 76 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 | |
| 3 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 30 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 51 of 93 | 54% | 27 of 67 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 22 | 51 of 93 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 100 of 185 | 54% | 61 of 135 | 12 of 16 | 27 of 34 | 65 of 132 | 3 of 4 | 32 of 49 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 18 of 32 | 56% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 10 | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 22 of 52 | 42% | 4 of 27 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 19 | 21 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Dolidze | 11 of 16 | 68% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 48 of 73 | 65% | 40 of 63 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 49 | |
| 3 | Roman Dolidze | 22 of 45 | 48% | 17 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 30 of 60 | 50% | 17 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 9 | 30 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Dolidze despite concerns about his inconsistency. He notes that Dolidze looked good against Marvin Vettori but terrible against Nassourdine Imavov, possibly due to the lack of crowd energy in the Apex. Cody believes Dolidze will benefit from the live crowd at UFC 303 and that his durability and pressure will be key. He also points out that Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight before and that Smith tends to fade in later rounds if he doesn't get an early finish.
Daniel has no strong read on this fight, noting both fighters are opportunistic finishers with similar qualities. He sees Dolidze potentially getting takedowns and grinding, but ultimately goes with the underdog Smith because he doesn't know enough and prefers the dog. He acknowledges it could realistically go either way.
Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze, stating that Anthony Smith has no chin left and Dolidze has knockout power, as evidenced by his KO of Jack Hermansson. He believes Dolidze will stuff any takedown attempts from Smith and knock him out on the feet. Vreeland also praises Dolidze's underrated jiu-jitsu and sweeps, noting he won't fall into a dumb submission. He acknowledges the concern of Dolidze moving up in weight on short notice but still favors him.
Jeff Fox picks Roman Dolidze, noting that Anthony Smith has no chin left and Dolidze has been knocking people out, including three straight before his last two losses. He mentions that Smith has screwed them over numerous times but still cannot pick him. Fox also points out that Dolidze is taking the fight on short notice but still expects him to win.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host thinks Dolidze's aggressiveness could cause Smith issues, and that Smith does not have the technical striking to pick Dolidze apart like Imavov did. He predicts Dolidze will break Smith and get a finish in the second or third round. However, he is not confident due to Dolidze's lack of technical prowess and the short notice weight class change, so he says this fight is likely a pass.
Paul leans toward Smith, noting that he has value as a plus-money underdog. He acknowledges Smith's tendency to fade in later rounds but believes Smith's striking is superior and that he can catch Dolidze early. Paul also mentions that Smith has a history of upsetting prospects and that Dolidze's last performance was concerning. However, he admits it's a close fight and that Smith's path to victory likely involves an early finish.
The Guru picks Anthony Smith over Roman Dolidze. He criticizes Dolidze as 'dog [__]' and believes Smith is a level above. He notes Smith's recent win over Vitor Petrino and his ability to survive on the ground, as seen against Jon Jones. He also mentions Smith will have a size advantage since Dolidze was preparing for middleweight. He expects Smith to win, possibly by finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vitor Petrino | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 10 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Smith | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vitor Petrino | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 10 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smith | 11 of 20 | 55% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vitor Petrino | 10 of 22 | 45% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Smith | 11 of 20 | 55% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vitor Petrino | 10 of 22 | 45% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Petrino due to youth, size, and strength, despite Smith being the better technical fighter. He notes Smith has taken too much damage and is past his prime, while Petrino is evolving. He calls it a 'changing of the guard' fight.
Big Brady favors Petrino's youth and momentum, noting his ability to win by knockout or decision. He thinks Smith is past his prime and has taken too much damage. He predicts Petrino wins by grinding decision, possibly taking Smith down.
Cody picks Petrino, citing his physical strength, takedown ability, and power. He notes Smith's durability is questionable after the Krylov loss. However, Cody won't bet at -600 due to lack of value.
Daniel Vreeland picks Petrino, noting his physicality, wrestling, and youth advantage over the aging Smith. He highlights Petrino's takedowns in every UFC fight and his ability to push a high pace. He warns that Smith could capitalize on a mistake with a submission, but believes Petrino is the much better wrestler and more likely to win minutes. He does not lay the -600 price but is confident in Petrino's victory.
Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Vitor Petrino. He also notes the risk due to Petrino's cardio and Smith's submission threat. Vreeland says he is staying away from betting the -500 line because Anthony Smith has screwed bettors over before when written off. He acknowledges Smith's grappling skills but thinks Petrino will knock him out if he fights smart.
Jeff Fox picks Vitor Petrino but is wary of betting the -500 line. He believes Petrino will knock out Anthony Smith if he keeps his distance and throws bombs, as Smith has no chin left. However, Fox notes that Petrino got tired in his last fight, and Smith still has great jiu-jitsu. If Petrino grapples and tires himself out, he could get submitted. Fox calls it an IQ test for Petrino and says he is staying away from parlays involving this fight due to the risk.
Petrino is 11-0 and has developed in every aspect of his MMA game. He came in as a power puncher but now implements a grapple-heavy approach. He will put big punches on Smith, take him down, and grind him out over 15 minutes, showing that Smith is over the hill.
Paul picks Petrino but with hesitation, noting Petrino is still green, makes mistakes, and hasn't faced high-level competition. He thinks Smith is washed but could be competitive. Paul sees Petrino as a fade candidate at this price but expects him to win.
The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing his physicality, takedown defense, and knockout power. He believes Anthony Smith struggles against athletic, powerful opponents and often shells up under pressure. He notes Petrino's composed striking and low kicks, and expects him to exploit Smith's weaknesses, possibly finishing him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 47 of 84 | 55% | 52 of 89 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Anthony Smith | 1 | 53 of 114 | 46% | 56 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 19 of 30 | 63% | 23 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 21 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 23 of 58 | 39% | 25 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 1 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 47 of 84 | 55% | 27 of 62 | 14 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 46 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 53 of 114 | 46% | 33 of 94 | 14 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 51 of 109 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 19 of 30 | 63% | 9 of 19 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 20 of 40 | 50% | 12 of 32 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 23 of 48 | 47% | 15 of 39 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 23 of 58 | 39% | 17 of 52 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 5 of 6 | 83% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 10 of 16 | 62% | 4 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Cody likes Anthony Smith as a plus 190 underdog. He notes that Smith is taking the fight on short notice but is likely in shape due to his commentary work in Vegas. Cody highlights Smith's durability, cardio, and experience against top competition. He believes Smith can survive Rountree's early onslaught and take the fight to the ground, where he has a massive grappling advantage. Cody also mentions the small Apex cage helps Smith cut off the cage and get takedowns. He acknowledges Rountree's power but thinks Smith can outwork him in later rounds.
Lucrative James calls this a 'weird ass fight' and refuses to break it down in detail. He sees Khalil potentially teeing off with leg kicks and body shots, but also notes Khalil's mental inconsistency and cardio issues. He thinks Anthony Smith could out-veteran him in later rounds with takedowns, but Smith doesn't shoot takedowns much anymore. He says it's a massive stay-away and if anything, he'd play Smith as a plus-money underdog due to volatility. He makes no pick.
Paul agrees with Cody on Anthony Smith at plus 190. He notes that Smith is likely staying in shape in Vegas and has a good chance to survive Rountree's early power. Paul points out that Smith has five-round cardio and can take a shot. He thinks Smith's grappling and experience will be key, especially if he can get the fight to the mat. Paul is not a huge Smith supporter but finds the underdog price too good to pass up.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 91 of 147 | 61% | 91 of 147 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Ryan Spann | 0 | 59 of 187 | 31% | 62 of 191 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Smith | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 24 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Ryan Spann | 0 | 10 of 41 | 24% | 10 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Anthony Smith | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Ryan Spann | 0 | 22 of 60 | 36% | 25 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:19 | |
| 3 | Anthony Smith | 0 | 45 of 69 | 65% | 45 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ryan Spann | 0 | 27 of 86 | 31% | 27 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smith | 91 of 147 | 61% | 44 of 92 | 12 of 15 | 35 of 40 | 90 of 146 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ryan Spann | 59 of 187 | 31% | 39 of 158 | 14 of 23 | 6 of 6 | 50 of 174 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Smith | 24 of 42 | 57% | 9 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 16 | 23 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ryan Spann | 10 of 41 | 24% | 5 of 32 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Anthony Smith | 22 of 36 | 61% | 10 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 10 | 22 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ryan Spann | 22 of 60 | 36% | 16 of 52 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 13 | |
| 3 | Anthony Smith | 45 of 69 | 65% | 25 of 45 | 7 of 10 | 13 of 14 | 45 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ryan Spann | 27 of 86 | 31% | 18 of 74 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Smith's best days are behind him, citing his recent loss to Johnny Walker where he was dropped and then headhunted. He thinks Spann will be too big, fast, and powerful for Smith. He has a full unit bet on Spann at -147, noting that the bet is more about Smith's decline than Spann's rise.
Big Brady questions why this rematch is happening, noting Anthony Smith dominated the first fight. However, he believes Smith looks uninterested and has taken too much damage, citing his recent performances against Johnny Walker and Magomed Ankalaev. He thinks Spann is dangerous everywhere and will knock out Smith in the first round, as Smith's durability is declining.
Cody picks Smith because he already beat Spann via submission and is getting plus money. He notes that Spann is a one-round fighter who fades under adversity, while Smith has better grappling and durability. Cody believes Smith can survive the early onslaught and take over later in the fight.
Daniel picks Ryan Spann, reasoning that Spann is an athletic freak who can catch Smith early. He notes that Smith is coming off a leg break and looked terrible against Johnny Walker. He acknowledges that Smith dominated the first fight, but believes Spann's power and explosiveness give him a chance to finish early. He is not confident, calling it a lean.
James picks Anthony Smith, citing his cardio advantage and durability. He notes Smith hurt and submitted Spann in their first fight, and Spann's finishing equity drops after round one. He believes Smith is not as washed as some think and that the line is off. He also mentions Smith's historical durability and difficulty to submit.
The host recalls Smith's submission win over Spann in their first fight and believes Smith's veteran experience and confidence will allow him to replicate that performance. He notes Spann is dangerous early but fades, and expects Smith to exchange in the pocket, hurt Spann, and submit him again. The host likes the under 1.5 rounds prop and finds Smith as a dog 'absolutely crazy'.
Paul initially picks Spann due to his recent wins and early explosiveness, but after Cody corrects him on the first fight result, he switches to Smith. However, his original pick was Spann, so we capture that. He notes Spann is dangerous early but fades, and Smith is durable enough to survive.
The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann in the rematch, believing Anthony Smith has declined physically and mentally. He notes Smith's poor physique and lack of fast-twitch fibers, comparing him to a fighter past his prime. He thinks Spann's scrambling and power will be enough, and that Smith won't land the same hook again. He predicts Spann will catch Smith and finish him, possibly in round two, leading to Smith's retirement.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 38 of 92 | 41% | 41 of 95 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 92 of 192 | 47% | 99 of 204 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 12 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 28 of 58 | 48% | 28 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Johnny Walker | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 31 of 59 | 52% | 31 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Johnny Walker | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 11 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 33 of 75 | 44% | 40 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 38 of 92 | 41% | 19 of 64 | 10 of 17 | 9 of 11 | 38 of 91 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 92 of 192 | 47% | 32 of 117 | 9 of 19 | 51 of 56 | 81 of 178 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 10 of 22 | 45% | 8 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 28 of 58 | 48% | 16 of 40 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 11 | 19 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Johnny Walker | 18 of 34 | 52% | 8 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 31 of 59 | 52% | 7 of 32 | 4 of 7 | 20 of 20 | 31 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Johnny Walker | 10 of 36 | 27% | 3 of 21 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 33 of 75 | 44% | 9 of 45 | 2 of 5 | 22 of 25 | 31 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks Johnny Walker, citing his size, speed, power, and unorthodox striking. He thinks Walker is the more dangerous fighter and notes Anthony Smith may be focused on his post-fight career. He mentions Walker has only shot two takedowns in the UFC but got both, and could use that to surprise Smith. He expects the fight to go to the second round and likes the over 1.5 rounds if available.
Big Brady sees this as a true pick'em fight, calling both fighters untrustworthy. He expects a striking fight, as Walker's takedown defense is good enough to keep it standing. Brady gives Walker the power advantage and believes he can land a big knockout shot, but worries about Walker's chin. He picks Walker to knock out Smith in the first round, but calls it his least confident pick on the card.
Cody picks Anthony Smith but is hesitant due to Smith's age and 50+ pro fights. He notes Smith's superior wrestling and jiu-jitsu, and his ability to survive early storms and finish late. However, he worries about Smith's leg injury and layoff, and acknowledges Walker's explosiveness and power. He sees Smith's jab and ring IQ as key advantages.
Connor picks Anthony Smith despite reservations, mainly because he dislikes Johnny Walker's move to SBG Ireland and feels it's a bad idea. He acknowledges Smith's vulnerability to larger fighters but thinks Smith's technical consistency and ability to take advantage of Walker's self-destructive tendencies could win. He notes the line is dead even and admits he might be wrong.
Daniel Levi picks Johnny Walker despite concerns about Walker's chin and durability. He believes Walker will be winning the fight until he either gets his arm raised or gets caught, as Smith's style relies on comebacks and opportunistic finishes. Levi notes that Smith is a veteran with many finishes but does not see Smith dominating the fight; instead, he expects Walker to be ahead on the scorecards or land a knockout. He acknowledges the risk due to Walker's history of being knocked out and his tall man defense, but ultimately favors Walker's athleticism and recent focus.
Smith is back at Factory X with Mark Montoya, motivated after a loss. His durability allows him to roll with Walker's shots, and he can pressure, land combinations, and counter Walker's wild striking. Smith can open up a finish via knockout or submission. Walker's durability issues and tentative moments may be exploited. Smith's experience and re-alignment with his camp are key.
Paul slightly favors Anthony Smith, calling it a fair pick'em. He notes both fighters can crack and Walker is more likely to finish early, but if Smith can secure takedowns and hang around, he can capitalize. He acknowledges the volatility and question marks on both sides, but edges toward Smith due to his well-rounded game.
The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker, citing his athleticism and reach advantage. He notes that Anthony Smith has looked hesitant and stiff on the feet recently, and his body appears less toned, suggesting decline. He believes Walker's momentum and finishing potential will be too much for Smith, predicting a TKO in the first round.
Zane leans Johnny Walker based on a 'vibe pick,' feeling that Anthony Smith will be uncomfortable fighting someone as huge as Walker. He notes that Smith tends to gas and fold when things go wrong, and Walker's size and reach (6 inches longer) could bully Smith. He acknowledges Smith's technical striking but thinks Walker's athleticism and size will cause Smith to freak out.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 46 of 79 | 58% | 64 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 21 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 26 of 38 | 68% | 41 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 46 of 79 | 58% | 31 of 60 | 6 of 9 | 9 of 10 | 23 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 32 |
| Anthony Smith | 18 of 36 | 50% | 6 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 17 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 20 of 41 | 48% | 9 of 26 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 9 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Anthony Smith | 13 of 23 | 56% | 3 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 26 of 38 | 68% | 22 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 31 |
| Anthony Smith | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. He acknowledges Ankalaev's low volume but praises his power and defensive soundness. He doubts Smith can take Ankalaev down and notes Smith is hittable. He expects Ankalaev to win comfortably but not look like a -600 favorite unless he finishes early.
Cody picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights harder than necessary. He notes that Ankalaev has a history of not using his wrestling enough, standing with opponents and getting clipped. He thinks if Ankalaev sticks to takedowns, he wins easily, but he's not sure he will. He calls it a potential lock but worries about Ankalaev's decision-making. He also notes that Smith is crafty and has good cardio.
Daniel picks Ankalaev to win, but notes the fight depends on Smith's approach. If Smith is content to survive, it will be a boring decision for Ankalaev. If Smith pushes the pace, it could be exciting with a finish on either side. He acknowledges Ankalaev's counter-striking style and power, but says Smith needs to take risks to win. He expects Ankalaev to piece Smith apart over three rounds if Smith doesn't engage.
Preet picks Ankalaev by decision and likes the over 2.5 rounds, expecting Ankalaev to slow the fight with clinch and takedowns, grinding out Smith. He notes Ankalaev's ability to make adjustments, as seen against Krylov, and that Smith's pressure could make it exciting but ultimately Ankalaev's discipline wins. He avoids the moneyline at -560.
Paul picks Ankalaev, noting that he is the best guy at 205 pounds and has an easy path to victory by taking Smith down repeatedly. He acknowledges that Ankalaev sometimes makes fights harder by standing, but he expects him to win. He mentions that Smith's takedown defense has always been an issue and that Ankalaev should stick to the game plan. He also notes that the -600 price is wide but that's the price you have to pay.
The MMA Guru predicts Magomed Ankalaev wins by 29-28 or 30-27 decision. He expects a lackluster fight where Smith may win the first round but then shells up as Ankalaev chops the legs, lands ground-and-pound, and controls the later rounds. The Guru notes Ankalaev's patience and Smith's inability to create offense.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Johnny Walker, citing his size, speed, power, and unorthodox striking. He thinks Walker is the more dangerous fighter and notes Anthony Smith may be focused on his post-fight career. He mentions Walker has only shot two takedowns in the UFC but got both, and could use that to surprise Smith. He expects the fight to go to the second round and likes the over 1.5 rounds if available.
Big Brady sees this as a true pick'em fight, calling both fighters untrustworthy. He expects a striking fight, as Walker's takedown defense is good enough to keep it standing. Brady gives Walker the power advantage and believes he can land a big knockout shot, but worries about Walker's chin. He picks Walker to knock out Smith in the first round, but calls it his least confident pick on the card.
Cody picks Anthony Smith but is hesitant due to Smith's age and 50+ pro fights. He notes Smith's superior wrestling and jiu-jitsu, and his ability to survive early storms and finish late. However, he worries about Smith's leg injury and layoff, and acknowledges Walker's explosiveness and power. He sees Smith's jab and ring IQ as key advantages.
Connor picks Anthony Smith despite reservations, mainly because he dislikes Johnny Walker's move to SBG Ireland and feels it's a bad idea. He acknowledges Smith's vulnerability to larger fighters but thinks Smith's technical consistency and ability to take advantage of Walker's self-destructive tendencies could win. He notes the line is dead even and admits he might be wrong.
Daniel Levi picks Johnny Walker despite concerns about Walker's chin and durability. He believes Walker will be winning the fight until he either gets his arm raised or gets caught, as Smith's style relies on comebacks and opportunistic finishes. Levi notes that Smith is a veteran with many finishes but does not see Smith dominating the fight; instead, he expects Walker to be ahead on the scorecards or land a knockout. He acknowledges the risk due to Walker's history of being knocked out and his tall man defense, but ultimately favors Walker's athleticism and recent focus.
Smith is back at Factory X with Mark Montoya, motivated after a loss. His durability allows him to roll with Walker's shots, and he can pressure, land combinations, and counter Walker's wild striking. Smith can open up a finish via knockout or submission. Walker's durability issues and tentative moments may be exploited. Smith's experience and re-alignment with his camp are key.
Paul slightly favors Anthony Smith, calling it a fair pick'em. He notes both fighters can crack and Walker is more likely to finish early, but if Smith can secure takedowns and hang around, he can capitalize. He acknowledges the volatility and question marks on both sides, but edges toward Smith due to his well-rounded game.
The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker, citing his athleticism and reach advantage. He notes that Anthony Smith has looked hesitant and stiff on the feet recently, and his body appears less toned, suggesting decline. He believes Walker's momentum and finishing potential will be too much for Smith, predicting a TKO in the first round.
Zane leans Johnny Walker based on a 'vibe pick,' feeling that Anthony Smith will be uncomfortable fighting someone as huge as Walker. He notes that Smith tends to gas and fold when things go wrong, and Walker's size and reach (6 inches longer) could bully Smith. He acknowledges Smith's technical striking but thinks Walker's athleticism and size will cause Smith to freak out.
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