Career Averages - Douglas Silva de Andrade
Career Averages - Cody Stamann
Douglas Silva de Andrade
Cody Stamann
Douglas Silva de Andrade - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 19 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Javier Reyes | 1 | 46 of 75 | 61% | 87 of 125 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 19 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Javier Reyes | 1 | 46 of 75 | 61% | 87 of 125 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 17 of 27 | 62% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Javier Reyes | 46 of 75 | 61% | 42 of 69 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 37 of 43 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 17 of 27 | 62% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Javier Reyes | 46 of 75 | 61% | 42 of 69 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 37 of 43 |
Angelo picks Javier Reyes despite acknowledging that Douglas Silva de Andrade is the better individual fighter. He cites Silva de Andrade's age (40) and long layoff (almost two years) as major concerns. He believes Reyes's busy, active style and youth will overwhelm the older fighter, as long as Reyes avoids poor takedown attempts.
Big Brady picks the underdog Douglas Silva de Andrade, despite his age (40) and moving up to featherweight. He believes Andrade's elite takedown defense will neutralize Javier Reyes' grappling, and that Andrade is the better striker. He notes Reyes has been knocked out before and predicts a second-round knockout for Andrade.
Cody agrees, noting Silva de Andrade's age, muscle mass, and inactivity. He sees Reyes as a human tornado with high KO percentage and expects him to overwhelm Silva de Andrade.
Connor picks Reyes as a sadness hedge, noting that Silva is older, less active, and getting hurt more. Reyes has finished many opponents and tries to finish, while Silva's durability has declined. However, Connor acknowledges that Silva would win at any other point in their careers.
Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.
The host is betting on Andrade because he believes the odds are wildly inaccurate. He notes that Andrade is a nightmare matchup for Reyes: he has knockout power, a granite chin, is tough, well-rounded, and difficult to take down. Reyes is making his UFC debut, looks flat, has poor striking defense, and is not physically imposing. Despite Andrade being 40 and on a two-year layoff, the host thinks he should be the favorite and is great value at +187.
James expects Reyes' relentless pace and cardio to overwhelm the 40-year-old Silva de Andrade, who may tire after a layoff. He predicts a late finish for Reyes, possibly in round three.
The host picks Javier Reyes, noting that Silva de Andrade is 40, has been inactive, and moves up in weight. He believes Reyes's well-rounded game, size advantage, and grappling will be key. He expects Reyes to take the fight to the ground and grind out a decision, though he warns that Silva de Andrade has power early and could replicate a past knockout of Reyes.
Paul likes Reyes's finishing ability and believes Silva de Andrade's age, layoff, and health issues will be factors. He expects Reyes to win by knockout, possibly in the second or third round, and recommends the KO prop at +350.
The MMA Guru picks Javier Reyes over the 40-year-old Douglas Silva de Andrade, who has looked poor in recent fights. He notes that Reyes has fought decent competition outside the UFC and is a young prospect, while Andrade has lost power and physicality moving up to featherweight. He predicts a 29-28 decision win for Reyes.
Zane picks Silva de Andrade despite his age and inactivity, because Reyes is a mess with poor footwork and no structure. Silva has a janky but effective style and has fought elite competition. However, Silva is 40, coming off a layoff, and has lost a step, making this a 50/50 toss-up.
Angelo picks John Castañeda, citing his youth, speed, and cardio advantage over the aging Douglas Silva de Andrade. He acknowledges that Andrade is a tough matchup with a solid chin and bowling-ball build, making him hard to take down. He expects Castañeda to win by outworking Andrade as he slows down, but warns that the fight could be close and suggests monitoring the line for value.
Big Brady picks John Castañeda, citing age advantage (seven years younger), better volume, cardio, wrestling, and durability. He notes Douglas Silva de Andrade is declining, with poor recent performances. He expects Castañeda to outwork him over 15 minutes and win by decision.
The host believes Castañeda is the better overall fighter, though de Andrade can make it close with his power. He expects Castañeda to use a combination of striking, footwork, and takedowns to win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks John Castañeda over Douglas Silva de Andrade. He notes Silva de Andrade is aging and less active, while Castañeda is durable, hard to finish, and pushes a strong pace. He expects Castañeda to win the later rounds and get a decision, possibly 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Johns | 0 | 36 of 119 | 30% | 36 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 50 of 96 | 52% | 52 of 98 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miles Johns | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Miles Johns | 0 | 10 of 41 | 24% | 10 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 25 of 45 | 55% | 25 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Miles Johns | 0 | 14 of 51 | 27% | 14 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Johns | 36 of 119 | 30% | 21 of 80 | 6 of 21 | 9 of 18 | 36 of 118 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 50 of 96 | 52% | 37 of 82 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 50 of 96 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miles Johns | 12 of 27 | 44% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 7 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 7 of 15 | 46% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Miles Johns | 10 of 41 | 24% | 4 of 24 | 4 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 25 of 45 | 55% | 19 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Miles Johns | 14 of 51 | 27% | 10 of 40 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 7 | 14 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 18 of 36 | 50% | 15 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Miles Johns, citing his youth, speed, and wrestling advantage. He notes Douglas is durable and a tough striker but is older and slowing down. He worries about Miles' cardio but believes his wrestling will be the difference. He mentions he has a moneyline bet on Miles.
Cody picks Miles Johns, citing his improved cardio and wrestling under Trey Ogden at Marathon MMA. He notes that Johns used to gas out but has shown better pacing in recent fights. Cody believes Johns can outwork Silva de Andrade by pressing him against the cage and using takedowns, especially since Silva de Andrade is 39 and cuts to 135, which may affect his durability. He expects a low-volume decision win for Johns.
Daniel Vreeland has a love-hate relationship with Miles Johns, noting his low output and tendency to back himself to the fence. He acknowledges Douglas Silva de Andrade's experience and durability but leans with Johns due to his physicality, youth, and confidence. He expects a low-output fight and sees Johns as the more physical younger guy.
Jacob picks Miles Johns but expects to be nervous during the fight. He recalls Miles gassing in the Cody Gibson fight and needing motivation. He thinks Douglas is a tough bowling ball and Miles may struggle with cardio again. He notes Miles should win but it will be close.
Johns has evolved and matured, allowing him to execute a game plan to wear on de Andrade's gas tank. By slowing him down early and evading his power, Johns will grind out a decision using clinching, takedowns, footwork, and output.
Paul picks Douglas Silva de Andrade as a dog, noting that he bets him almost every fight because he is always the underdog. He highlights Silva de Andrade's durability and power, and believes that judges are not rewarding wrestling control as much these days. Paul thinks Silva de Andrade can land the bigger shots and win, despite his low volume.
The MMA Guru picks Douglas Silva de Andrade, questioning whether Miles Johns can KO him. He notes Johns couldn't KO Cody Gibson and relies too much on overhands. He thinks Silva de Andrade has better wins (Cody Stamann, Sergey Morozov) and will make reads on Johns' power shots. He also mentions Silva de Andrade's competitive fights with Lerone Murphy and Nate Maness.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 1 | 54 of 139 | 38% | 66 of 152 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 61 of 178 | 34% | 72 of 189 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 14 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 23 of 72 | 31% | 23 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 14 of 44 | 31% | 14 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 21 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 1 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 38 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 17 of 54 | 31% | 28 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 54 of 139 | 38% | 40 of 116 | 9 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 49 of 133 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Cody Stamann | 61 of 178 | 34% | 17 of 108 | 23 of 43 | 21 of 27 | 60 of 175 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 14 of 39 | 35% | 8 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 23 of 72 | 31% | 7 of 42 | 7 of 15 | 9 of 15 | 22 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 14 of 44 | 31% | 10 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 21 of 52 | 40% | 4 of 30 | 9 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 21 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 26 of 56 | 46% | 22 of 48 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Cody Stamann | 17 of 54 | 31% | 6 of 36 | 7 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo gives a slight lean to Cody Stamann, citing his wrestling and pace. He notes Douglas Silva de Andrade hits hard and is strong at 135, but Stamann can stick with the pace. He says both are durable and if he bets, it would be over 2.5 rounds. He calls it a slight lean.
Big Brady sees this as a close fight. He notes Stamann has a volume edge on the feet, but Andrade has a four-inch reach advantage and all the power and finishing upside. He mentions Andrade has good takedown defense and an excellent get-up game, making it hard for Stamann to hold him down. Brady expects a competitive striking match that likely goes to decision, and picks Andrade to win by landing the bigger shots and having the bigger moments, possibly via split decision.
Cody picks Stamann but is hesitant, noting that Stamann often struggles against opponents he should beat. He points out Stamann's close fight with Luan Lacerda where he was outstruck in damage. He worries about de Andrade's power and takedown defense, and thinks the line is accurate. He expects a close decision.
Connor leans toward Stamann but is less confident, noting that Stamann's new aggressive style still has hitches and that de Andrade's power and unpredictability could cause problems. He thinks Stamann's counterpunching and body work are key, but de Andrade's wild swings could land. Connor sees this as a good test for Stamann's evolution.
Daniel Levi picks Cody Stamann via decision, describing him as a solid, meat-and-potatoes fighter who does just enough to win. He notes that Stamann's fights are usually close, but he consistently edges out opponents. Levi acknowledges Silva de Andrade's power and submission threats, but believes Stamann's takedown defense and point fighting will earn him a narrow decision. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation for betting.
Stamann's speed and footwork will keep him out of danger against the aggressive, powerful Silva de Andrade. He can dart in and out with combinations, mix in takedowns to slow the Brazilian, and pull away later in the fight. Stamann is motivated and will put on a complete performance to win by decision.
Paul picks Stamann, expecting him to utilize his wrestling and pace. He notes that Stamann should avoid striking exchanges and take the fight to the ground. He thinks the line should be closer to -200 and sees value at -145. He mentions Stamann's takedown prop on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru leans towards Douglas Silva de Andrade, citing his toughness and dangerous pocket fighting. He notes that Cody Stamann has short reach and must be in the pocket, where Silva de Andrade is more dangerous. He predicts a close decision win.
Zane picks Cody Stamann, banking on his durability and newfound aggression. He notes that Stamann has never been knocked out and that his counterpunching and body work could exploit de Andrade's wild style. However, he acknowledges that de Andrade is dangerous and that Stamann's transformation is still incomplete, making this a tough test.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Said Nurmagomedov | 0 | 28 of 74 | 37% | 44 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:12 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 42 of 97 | 43% | 77 of 150 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Said Nurmagomedov | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 10 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Said Nurmagomedov | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 14 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Said Nurmagomedov | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 20 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 29 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Said Nurmagomedov | 28 of 74 | 37% | 4 of 34 | 11 of 19 | 13 of 21 | 24 of 66 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 5 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 42 of 97 | 43% | 21 of 69 | 12 of 18 | 9 of 10 | 39 of 89 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Said Nurmagomedov | 8 of 22 | 36% | 0 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 9 of 30 | 30% | 4 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Said Nurmagomedov | 13 of 32 | 40% | 3 of 16 | 4 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 12 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 21 of 41 | 51% | 11 of 30 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Said Nurmagomedov | 7 of 20 | 35% | 1 of 9 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 12 of 26 | 46% | 6 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov, citing his cleaner and more versatile striking technique and solid defense. He notes Douglas Silva de Andrade has more power but a negative striking differential. He believes Nurmagomedov's pace and striking defense will allow him to outpoint Silva de Andrade, though he must avoid the power. He sees this as a striker vs striker matchup.
Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov, praising his flashy striking, defensive soundness, and youth. He notes that Nurmagomedov is hard to hit and has a well-rounded game with wrestling in his back pocket. He believes Silva de Andrade, despite his power and toughness, will struggle with Nurmagomedov's movement and volume. Brady predicts a decision win for Nurmagomedov, though he acknowledges a finish is possible.
Cody thinks Said's superior speed, footwork, and lateral movement will be key against the shorter, stockier de Andrade. He believes Said can stay at distance and chip away, and has multiple paths to victory including a finish. He acknowledges de Andrade's durability and toughness but sees Said as the safer play.
The host does not make a pick on the winner of this fight. He only bets on the under 2.5 rounds prop, which is his lock of the night play. He expects a finish regardless of who wins, likely from Nurmagomedov within the first two rounds. He does not pick a side on the moneyline.
Paul is torn on this fight. He loves de Andrade as a dog but thinks the price is too wide. He calls it a dogger pass situation, noting that de Andrade has shown heart and durability but Said is very skilled. He doesn't commit to a pick.
The Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, noting his range and body kicks will trouble the shorter de Andrade. He predicts a submission (guillotine) in the second round, possibly after hurting de Andrade to the body. He mentions de Andrade's age (37) as a factor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 3 | 37 of 64 | 57% | 57 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Sergey Morozov | 1 | 32 of 65 | 49% | 62 of 99 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 28 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sergey Morozov | 1 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 53 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | |
| 2 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 3 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Sergey Morozov | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 25 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 37 of 64 | 57% | 16 of 40 | 12 of 14 | 9 of 10 | 31 of 56 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Sergey Morozov | 32 of 65 | 49% | 24 of 56 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 15 of 30 | 50% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergey Morozov | 23 of 40 | 57% | 19 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 | |
| 2 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 22 of 34 | 64% | 10 of 21 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 26 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Sergey Morozov | 9 of 25 | 36% | 5 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Morozov due to his wrestling advantage, noting that Andrade has been taken down in every loss. He believes Morozov can hang with Andrade's power, set a hard pace, and mix in takedowns to win a unanimous decision. He acknowledges Andrade's experience but thinks Morozov's pressure and top control will be decisive.
Big Brady is impressed with Morozov's well-rounded game, especially his fight IQ and takedown ability. He notes Morozov showed good striking against Khalid Taha and took him down six times. Brady believes Morozov will take down Silva de Andrade multiple times and control him on the mat, leading to a decision win. He also points out Silva de Andrade is 36 and has only one submission win, relying mostly on knockouts.
Cody picks Morozov, citing his high-level regional experience and grinding style. He notes Silva de Andrade has poor takedown defense and that Morozov can exploit that. He expects Morozov to take him down and control the fight.
Daniel Levi picks Sergey Morozov by decision. He notes that Morozov showed big improvements in his last fight and that his clinch and pressure will be key. Silva de Andrade has holes in the clinch and tends to rest. Levi believes Morozov will work harder and win a decision.
Morozov has a clear grappling advantage and should dominate de Andrade on the ground. De Andrade has shown vulnerability to wrestlers in the past, struggling to get up from under opponents like Henan Barou. Morozov trains at American Top Team and has sharp boxing to close distance. The only way de Andrade wins is by knockout, but Morozov's chin and unorthodox striking make that unlikely. Already placed 3 units and may add more.
Paul admits he hasn't watched tape on this fight and defers to Cody's analysis. He doesn't make a clear pick.
The MMA Guru picks Sergey Morozov, citing his grappling pressure and ability to slow down Douglas Silva de Andrade, who tends to fade. He notes Morozov's strong M1 Challenge background and believes he can secure a third-round rear-naked choke finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 1 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Gaetano Pirrello | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 1 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Gaetano Pirrello | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 10 of 15 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Gaetano Pirrello | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 10 of 15 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Gaetano Pirrello | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gaetano Pirrello as the underdog, believing his world-class Muay Thai striking will be too much for Douglas Silva de Andrade. He notes that Andrade is dropping down to 135, which may affect his chin, and that he rarely uses his wrestling despite having a clear path to victory via takedowns. Angelo thinks Pirrello will get to showcase his striking and that Andrade will be on the wrong end of it. He considers a moneyline bet at plus money and may include Pirrello in his knockout pool.
Big Brady picks Douglas Silva de Andrade to win by knockout, but is not overly confident due to Andrade's age (36) and style. He notes Andrade is a striker who will brawl, which plays into Pirrello's hands as Pirrello is dangerous and has 14 of 17 wins inside the distance. However, Andrade has fought much better competition (Rob Font, Marlon Vera, etc.) while Pirrello looked poor in his UFC debut against Ricky Simone. Brady thinks the line is wide and prefers a violence play.
Cody picks Andrade based on experience and durability. He notes that Andrade has fought tough competition and has a good chin. Pirrello is a striker who has not faced the same level of opposition. He expects Andrade to pressure and take over as Pirrello fades. However, he is not highly confident.
Daniel Levi picks Douglas Silva de Andrade, citing his experience and ability to show up in fights. He notes Pirrello has issues with takedown defense and chin, but Silva is 36 at bantamweight and could be caught. Levi thinks at their best, Silva wins, but he does not recommend laying -240 due to the risk. He personally passes on betting but picks Silva to get it done.
I think Pirrello's cardio fades as the fight goes on, and Andrade is the better fighter everywhere. Andrade has good power and grappling, and Pirrello's defensive grappling is terrible. I like Andrade by decision at +175, but the moneyline is fine too. I'm not worried about Pirrello's early danger because Andrade can weather it.
Paul also picks Andrade but is not confident. He notes that Andrade has not fought frequently and has a limited grappling game. Pirrello is a dangerous striker early. He thinks Andrade's experience will be the difference but is wary of the price.
The MMA Guru picks Douglas Silva de Andrade, noting that Gaetano Pirrello looked fundamentally unprepared in his debut against Ricky Simone. He believes Silva de Andrade is a big bantamweight with good wins, including over Marlon Vera. He expects a scrappy fight but predicts Silva de Andrade will win by unanimous decision 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 48 of 115 | 41% | 60 of 131 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 39 of 108 | 36% | 51 of 121 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 11 of 38 | 28% | 12 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 19 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 15 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 18 of 45 | 40% | 25 of 56 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 24 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 48 of 115 | 41% | 29 of 92 | 8 of 11 | 11 of 12 | 37 of 97 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 10 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 39 of 108 | 36% | 16 of 74 | 11 of 14 | 12 of 20 | 33 of 101 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 16 of 37 | 43% | 8 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 11 of 38 | 28% | 2 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 13 | 11 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 14 of 33 | 42% | 8 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 11 of 27 | 40% | 4 of 18 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 18 of 45 | 40% | 13 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 10 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 17 of 43 | 39% | 10 of 33 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 12 of 38 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady thinks Lerone Murphy is the cleaner striker and has a reach advantage. He acknowledges Douglas Silva de Andrade is tough and throws volume, but believes Murphy's technique will prevail. He notes Murphy's wrestling is decent and he can work back to his feet. He predicts a decision win for Murphy, but says it could be close.
The host likes Lerone Murphy's reach, power, and ground-and-pound, and believes he can either out-strike Douglas from distance or take him down for a finish. He notes Douglas's age and lack of takedown defense, and expects Murphy to win by second-round KO via ground and pound.
The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy, citing his dangerous stand-up, great grappling, and strength. He notes Murphy's win over Ricardo Ramos and his draw with Zubaira Tukhugov on short notice. He believes Douglas Silva de Andrade is too small for featherweight and will get overwhelmed, predicting a second or third round TKO.
Cody Stamann - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 1:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 1:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 13 of 33 | 39% | 5 of 21 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 20 of 44 | 45% | 15 of 36 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Da'Mon Blackshear | 13 of 33 | 39% | 5 of 21 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 20 of 44 | 45% | 15 of 36 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo believes Da'Mon Blackshear is the better fighter with far better striking and good wrestling. He thinks Cody Stamann will get outstruck and then shoot sloppy takedowns. However, he notes Blackshear is 2-4 in the UFC and hasn't had a key win over a division staple like Stamann, so he is not confident enough to bet. He might consider a plus 3.5 round bet on Stamann if the odds are good.
Big Brady favors Blackshear due to his size, reach, and youth advantage over the 35-year-old Stamann. He believes Blackshear's striking is underrated and his grappling is elite, with a black belt in BJJ. He expects Blackshear to have success wherever the fight goes and predicts a decision win, though he acknowledges the line may be too wide.
Cody is high on Stamann as a dog, citing Blackshear's cardio issues and lack of power. He notes Stamann's wrestling credentials and ability to get back up from takedowns. Cody expects a close decision and thinks the +230 line is too wide for a veteran like Stamann.
Connor picks Stamann, noting Blackshear is too willing to start from negative positions and it has cost him. He thinks Stamann's neutralizer style will make Blackshear make mistakes. Connor expects a narrow split decision, possibly ugly. He mentions Stamann is the underdog at +217 to +232.
Daniel Vreeland picks Da'Mon Blackshear, citing his physical advantages (reach, height) and higher aspirations compared to Cody Stamann, who may be nearing retirement. He acknowledges Stamann's takedown defense and ability to make fights close, but believes Blackshear's grappling and motivation give him the edge. Vreeland expects a close fight.
Stamann is being overlooked as a +230 underdog. His defensive wrestling should keep him away from Blackshear's BJJ, allowing him to dictate the striking pace and pull away in the second and third rounds as Blackshear slows down. Expect a decision win.
Paul agrees, questioning how Blackshear can be such a favorite given his recent KO loss and cardio problems. He thinks Stamann's experience and wrestling will keep the fight competitive, and the price is too good to pass up. Paul calls it a clear dogger pass.
The Guru picks Da'Mon Blackshear, citing his size, strength, and youth. He criticizes Cody Stamann's lack of finishing ability and short reach. He notes Blackshear gave Mario Bautista a tough fight and believes he is the better fighter. He mentions the odds might be worth betting on Blackshear as a favorite.
Zane picks Stamann, agreeing with Connor. He describes Stamann as a solid defensive striker who can bang in the pocket, but notes he never presses advantages. Zane thinks Blackshear's poor striking and tendency to start from negative positions will allow Stamann to neutralize him. He expects a narrow split decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Lapilus | 0 | 59 of 143 | 41% | 64 of 150 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 3:24 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 100 of 180 | 55% | 107 of 190 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taylor Lapilus | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 30 of 58 | 51% | 30 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Taylor Lapilus | 0 | 22 of 49 | 44% | 24 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 35 of 66 | 53% | 40 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | Taylor Lapilus | 0 | 15 of 46 | 32% | 18 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 35 of 56 | 62% | 37 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Lapilus | 59 of 143 | 41% | 23 of 101 | 28 of 33 | 8 of 9 | 47 of 125 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 100 of 180 | 55% | 60 of 132 | 25 of 31 | 15 of 17 | 84 of 162 | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taylor Lapilus | 22 of 48 | 45% | 10 of 32 | 11 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 40 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 30 of 58 | 51% | 12 of 37 | 14 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 22 of 50 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Taylor Lapilus | 22 of 49 | 44% | 8 of 33 | 10 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 41 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 35 of 66 | 53% | 21 of 48 | 7 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 29 of 58 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Taylor Lapilus | 15 of 46 | 32% | 5 of 36 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 35 of 56 | 62% | 27 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 33 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Taylor Lapilus, citing his superior kickboxing and outstanding takedown defense. He notes that Cody Stamann is well-rounded but lacks power, and Taylor's ability to work in and out of range should be key. However, he worries that Taylor might be too tentative like in his last fight, where he was afraid of takedowns and didn't throw enough. He thinks Taylor is the better overall fighter but the fight could be close.
Big Brady picks Taylor Lapilus to win by decision. He highlights Lapilus's elite takedown defense and get-up game, as well as a 9-inch reach advantage. He notes that Cody Stamann hasn't wrestled since 2020 and has only completed five takedowns, so the fight will likely stay standing where Lapilus has the edge.
Cody picks Lapilus, noting that Stamann has been inactive and has not looked interested in wrestling recently. Lapilus is a smooth striker with good takedown defense. Cody expects Lapilus to outpoint Stamann on the feet and win a decision. He trusts Lapilus' activity and technical striking.
Daniel confidently picks Stamann as a plus-money underdog, arguing that Lapilus fights close decisions and doesn't run through opponents. He notes Stamann is experienced and competitive with everyone, and that the line is too wide. He expects a controversial split decision for Stamann.
Jacob picks Taylor Lapilus, agreeing with the odds. He notes that Taylor is probably twice the fighter Cody is, with great striking and takedown defense. Cody is tough and has boxing and wrestling, but Jacob thinks Taylor's skills should win the fight, likely by decision. He warns that the -250 odds might make people sweat because Cody is no pushover and could win rounds. He also mentions that Taylor's -3.5 round line might be risky because Taylor is not high volume.
Lapilus has speed and striking advantage from distance, but his takedown defense is a concern. Stamann has a wrestling background but doesn't use it enough. Lapilus should land better strikes and stuff takedowns to win a decision, but the line at -265 is too wide for comfort.
Paul picks Lapilus, noting that Stamann has not used his wrestling in recent fights and seems to have lost interest. Lapilus is the better striker and should win a competitive decision. Paul thinks Stamann's inactivity and lack of urgency will cost him.
The Guru picks Lapilus because Stamann is past his prime, hasn't fought in over a year, and struggles to implement his wrestling. Lapilus is tall and rangy, making it difficult for Stamann to find the inside. He thinks Stamann's takedown attempts will be fruitless as Lapilus can frame and get back to his feet. He expects Lapilus to outwork Stamann on the inside with knees.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 1 | 54 of 139 | 38% | 66 of 152 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 61 of 178 | 34% | 72 of 189 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 14 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 23 of 72 | 31% | 23 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 14 of 44 | 31% | 14 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 21 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 1 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 38 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 17 of 54 | 31% | 28 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 54 of 139 | 38% | 40 of 116 | 9 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 49 of 133 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Cody Stamann | 61 of 178 | 34% | 17 of 108 | 23 of 43 | 21 of 27 | 60 of 175 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 14 of 39 | 35% | 8 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 23 of 72 | 31% | 7 of 42 | 7 of 15 | 9 of 15 | 22 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 14 of 44 | 31% | 10 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 21 of 52 | 40% | 4 of 30 | 9 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 21 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 26 of 56 | 46% | 22 of 48 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Cody Stamann | 17 of 54 | 31% | 6 of 36 | 7 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo gives a slight lean to Cody Stamann, citing his wrestling and pace. He notes Douglas Silva de Andrade hits hard and is strong at 135, but Stamann can stick with the pace. He says both are durable and if he bets, it would be over 2.5 rounds. He calls it a slight lean.
Big Brady sees this as a close fight. He notes Stamann has a volume edge on the feet, but Andrade has a four-inch reach advantage and all the power and finishing upside. He mentions Andrade has good takedown defense and an excellent get-up game, making it hard for Stamann to hold him down. Brady expects a competitive striking match that likely goes to decision, and picks Andrade to win by landing the bigger shots and having the bigger moments, possibly via split decision.
Cody picks Stamann but is hesitant, noting that Stamann often struggles against opponents he should beat. He points out Stamann's close fight with Luan Lacerda where he was outstruck in damage. He worries about de Andrade's power and takedown defense, and thinks the line is accurate. He expects a close decision.
Connor leans toward Stamann but is less confident, noting that Stamann's new aggressive style still has hitches and that de Andrade's power and unpredictability could cause problems. He thinks Stamann's counterpunching and body work are key, but de Andrade's wild swings could land. Connor sees this as a good test for Stamann's evolution.
Daniel Levi picks Cody Stamann via decision, describing him as a solid, meat-and-potatoes fighter who does just enough to win. He notes that Stamann's fights are usually close, but he consistently edges out opponents. Levi acknowledges Silva de Andrade's power and submission threats, but believes Stamann's takedown defense and point fighting will earn him a narrow decision. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation for betting.
Stamann's speed and footwork will keep him out of danger against the aggressive, powerful Silva de Andrade. He can dart in and out with combinations, mix in takedowns to slow the Brazilian, and pull away later in the fight. Stamann is motivated and will put on a complete performance to win by decision.
Paul picks Stamann, expecting him to utilize his wrestling and pace. He notes that Stamann should avoid striking exchanges and take the fight to the ground. He thinks the line should be closer to -200 and sees value at -145. He mentions Stamann's takedown prop on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru leans towards Douglas Silva de Andrade, citing his toughness and dangerous pocket fighting. He notes that Cody Stamann has short reach and must be in the pocket, where Silva de Andrade is more dangerous. He predicts a close decision win.
Zane picks Cody Stamann, banking on his durability and newfound aggression. He notes that Stamann has never been knocked out and that his counterpunching and body work could exploit de Andrade's wild style. However, he acknowledges that de Andrade is dangerous and that Stamann's transformation is still incomplete, making this a tough test.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 80 of 181 | 44% | 85 of 187 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 103 of 189 | 54% | 108 of 195 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Stamann | 0 | 29 of 59 | 49% | 29 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 31 of 66 | 46% | 31 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cody Stamann | 0 | 33 of 78 | 42% | 33 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 52 of 87 | 59% | 52 of 87 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Cody Stamann | 0 | 18 of 44 | 40% | 23 of 50 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Stamann | 80 of 181 | 44% | 31 of 113 | 44 of 61 | 5 of 7 | 80 of 181 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luan Lacerda | 103 of 189 | 54% | 62 of 139 | 29 of 38 | 12 of 12 | 101 of 186 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Stamann | 29 of 59 | 49% | 9 of 33 | 17 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 29 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luan Lacerda | 31 of 66 | 46% | 17 of 49 | 8 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 31 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cody Stamann | 33 of 78 | 42% | 17 of 53 | 15 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 33 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luan Lacerda | 52 of 87 | 59% | 31 of 63 | 17 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 50 of 85 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cody Stamann | 18 of 44 | 40% | 5 of 27 | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luan Lacerda | 20 of 36 | 55% | 14 of 27 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Cody Stamann as the rightful favorite due to fighting much better competition. He notes Lacerda has a legit BJJ black belt but often pulls guard and rolls for submissions, which doesn't work as well in the UFC. He thinks Lacerda won't be able to get takedowns and will have to rely on a Hail Mary submission. Stamann has been submitted twice but against elite grapplers like Sterling and Said. He predicts a decision win for Stamann.
Cody picks Cody Stamann confidently, noting his wrestling, cardio, and versatility. He says Stamann is a generalist who can do everything well, while Lacerda is a one-dimensional BJJ specialist. He thinks Stamann will neutralize Lacerda's grappling and win on the feet. He mentions Stamann's experience against top competition and his ability to avoid submissions.
Connor agrees, noting Lacerda is not proactive and Stamann is a tough gatekeeper. Lacerda's style is janky and he may not be able to exploit Stamann's flaws.
Paul picks Cody Stamann, noting his wrestling and striking advantages. He says Stamann is a safe bet among the big favorites on the card. He mentions Lacerda's BJJ is dangerous but thinks Stamann will avoid submissions and win a decision. He says Stamann's experience and versatility will be too much.
The Guru picks Stamann despite acknowledging the risk of decline. He notes Stamann's losses are to top bantamweights like Sterling, Develashvili, and Rivera, and he beat Eddie Wineland convincingly. At 33, Stamann is still hungry and training at Extreme Couture. The Guru believes Lacerda is not on the level of Sayed or Song to submit Stamann, and that Stamann's wrestling and pressure will carry him to a 29-28 decision after surviving an early bad situation.
Zane picks Stamann because Lacerda is too passive and slow-paced. Stamann is a good wrestler who can enforce his game. Lacerda's submissions come from wrestling, but he won't outwrestle Stamann. Stamann is tough and durable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Eddie Wineland | 1 | 27 of 38 | 71% | 32 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Stamann | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Eddie Wineland | 1 | 27 of 38 | 71% | 32 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Stamann | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Eddie Wineland | 27 of 38 | 71% | 23 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 16 | 12 of 16 | 6 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Stamann | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Eddie Wineland | 27 of 38 | 71% | 23 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 16 | 12 of 16 | 6 of 6 |
Angelo picks Cody Stamann, citing his well-rounded skills, wrestling background, and pace. He notes Stamann averages almost 3 takedowns per fight and has no problem getting in his opponent's face. He acknowledges Eddie Wineland's experience and danger but believes Stamann's wrestling and pace will be the difference.
Big Brady picks Cody Stamann to win by second-round knockout. He acknowledges Stamann is a wrestler but believes he can outstrike Wineland, who has poor striking defense and a weak chin. He notes Wineland's takedown defense is historically good, but Stamann's power and Wineland's decline make a knockout likely.
Cody picks Stamann, noting his tough competition and advanced skill set. He thinks Wineland's chin and reflexes are gone, and Stamann will win by decision or TKO. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins due to Stamann's weight cut issues.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Cody Stamann, noting Eddie Wineland is damaged goods at 38 and has been knocked out by lesser fighters. Stamann is a competent, well-rounded fighter who wins rounds, though he rarely finishes. Levi expects a unanimous decision but acknowledges the -700 price is not worth betting. He simply states Stamann is the pick.
Paul agrees, noting Wineland's age and recent KO losses. He thinks the UFC is giving Stamann a favorable matchup and he should win easily. He also suggests waiting for weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Cody Stamann, calling it a no-brainer. He notes that Eddie Wineland is 37 and has taken a lot of damage, while Stamann is younger and has good grappling. He expects Stamann to use his wrestling to secure takedowns and ride out a 30-27 decision, as Wineland is a veteran unlikely to be submitted but unable to stop the grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Said Nurmagomedov | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Said Nurmagomedov | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Said Nurmagomedov | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 7 of 13 | 53% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Said Nurmagomedov | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 7 of 13 | 53% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Cody Stamann, expecting his pace and takedowns to frustrate a ring-rusty Nurmagomedov. He compares it to Barcelos vs Nurmagomedov where Barcelos won a decision. He admits it's not a confident pick but likes Cody in that matchup.
Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov to win by decision, citing his striking advantage, volume, defense, and significant reach and height advantages. He notes that Stamann's path to victory is takedowns, but Stamann struggles to control opponents and Nurmagomedov has good takedown defense and scrambling. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Nurmagomedov will outpoint Stamann.
Cody picks Cody Stamann as a live underdog, arguing that the line is off because people assume Nurmagomedov has grappling like other Nurmagomedovs, but Said is primarily a striker. He notes that Said has been taken down before (e.g., by Bibilatov) and that Stamann has good wrestling and game plans. Cody believes Stamann will use takedowns and top control to win a decision, and likes the plus money.
Daniel Levi leans toward Said Nurmagomedov but is not confident enough to lay the -200 price. He notes Nurmagomedov's explosive striking and six-inch reach advantage, but acknowledges Stamann's wrestling and ability to make fights close. Levi thinks Stamann can be competitive with anyone and that the fight could be a split decision. He ultimately gives a slight edge to Nurmagomedov due to his flashy striking and crowd-pleasing style.
The host believes the line is inflated due to the 'Russian tax' on Nurmagomedov. He argues that Stamann has the wrestling advantage and will be able to take Nurmagomedov down, especially in later rounds. He notes that Nurmagomedov prefers to strike from range, but Stamann can crash the pocket and use his wrestling. He expects Stamann to win a decision by out-grappling and out-working Nurmagomedov.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Stamann as a live dog. He notes that Said's wrestling hasn't been tested at UFC level and that Stamann is a bigger bantamweight who has fought tough competition. Paul believes Stamann's wrestling and game planning will expose Said's defensive weaknesses. He also mentions that Stamann has scored takedowns in his last four fights.
The MMA Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, citing his youth, improvements, and recent first-round KO of Mark Striegl. He believes Nurmagomedov can stuff takedowns and outwork Stamann, predicting a second-round spinning back kick to the body TKO. He notes Stamann's recent losses and crying incident as signs of decline.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 71 of 192 | 36% | 178 of 306 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 48 of 134 | 35% | 73 of 163 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 2:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 26 of 68 | 38% | 34 of 78 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 74 of 109 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 19 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:07 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 24 of 70 | 34% | 70 of 119 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 17 of 47 | 36% | 32 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 71 of 192 | 36% | 49 of 158 | 16 of 25 | 6 of 9 | 64 of 183 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 |
| Cody Stamann | 48 of 134 | 35% | 27 of 102 | 20 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 41 of 126 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 26 of 68 | 38% | 20 of 61 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 64 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 21 of 51 | 41% | 13 of 38 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 21 of 54 | 38% | 10 of 36 | 7 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Cody Stamann | 10 of 36 | 27% | 3 of 25 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 32 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 24 of 70 | 34% | 19 of 61 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 24 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 17 of 47 | 36% | 11 of 39 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision. He highlights Merab's relentless pace, pressure, and takedown volume, even if he can't hold opponents down. He believes Merab will wear Stamann down with constant takedown attempts and cage pressure. Brady notes that both fighters are not finishers, so he expects the fight to go to decision. He also suggests Merab by decision as a parlay piece.
Cody is intrigued by Cody Stamann as an underdog. He notes that Merab's takedowns are often stuffed by better competition, as seen in the John Dodson fight (2 for 20). He thinks Stamann has the better striking and can stuff takedowns, making it a close competitive fight. He also mentions that Merab's main training partner Aljamain Sterling is out with surgery, which could affect his preparation. He acknowledges the sweat because Merab's grinding style is tough to bet against, but at +215 he finds it generous enough.
Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to win, emphasizing his relentless pressure, takedown volume, and improved striking. He notes that Stamann is solid but tends to be a point fighter who may be outworked. Levi believes Dvalishvili's aggression and cardio will lead to a decision win.
The host picks Merab Dvalishvili by decision, citing his relentless pace and takedown volume. He notes that Stamann is a good wrestler but expects Dvalishvili's motor to be too much. He believes the fight goes the distance and Dvalishvili wins on volume.
Paul is leaning toward Merab, noting that he has made tons of improvements and is a grinding machine. He acknowledges that Stamann is a better striker and has decent wrestling, but Merab's relentless takedown pace could overwhelm him. He mentions that Merab's takedown numbers are impressive (11-13 per fight) and that even if Stamann gets up, Merab will drag him back down. However, he is not convinced Merab can dominate wrestling exchanges against Stamann, and he prefers the 'Merab by decision' prop at -125.
The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili over Cody Stamann, citing Dvalishvili's superior grappling and pace. He notes that Dvalishvili controlled John Dodson, who has great takedown defense, and that Stamann has struggled in grappling exchanges. He predicts Dvalishvili will win a 29-28 unanimous decision, with Stamann possibly winning the first round on strikes but Dvalishvili taking over in the later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmie Rivera | 0 | 48 of 89 | 53% | 90 of 134 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 26 of 72 | 36% | 62 of 108 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 4:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmie Rivera | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 27 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Jimmie Rivera | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 21 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 28 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 3 | Jimmie Rivera | 0 | 18 of 41 | 43% | 42 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 8 of 28 | 28% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmie Rivera | 48 of 89 | 53% | 16 of 44 | 13 of 16 | 19 of 29 | 32 of 68 | 12 of 16 | 4 of 5 |
| Cody Stamann | 26 of 72 | 36% | 13 of 55 | 8 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 18 of 61 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmie Rivera | 15 of 25 | 60% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 13 | 11 of 17 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 4 |
| Cody Stamann | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jimmie Rivera | 15 of 23 | 65% | 7 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 6 | 10 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Cody Stamann | 11 of 28 | 39% | 4 of 19 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 22 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jimmie Rivera | 18 of 41 | 43% | 4 of 22 | 7 of 9 | 7 of 10 | 11 of 33 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 8 of 28 | 28% | 4 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Jimmie Rivera, believing he is the better striker and faster fighter. He thinks Rivera's 95% takedown defense will neutralize Stamann's wrestling, and that Rivera will land more and harder strikes. He predicts a decision win, noting neither fighter is a finisher, and suggests betting on Rivera by decision or the fight going to decision.
Daniel Levi picks Cody Stamann as a live underdog, citing his versatility, fight IQ, and ability to fight in multiple stances. He believes Rivera has an old-school style and hasn't evolved, while Stamann can outpoint and outwork him, possibly even knocking him down.
The Guru picks Jimmie Rivera, noting his losses are to elite fighters (Petr Yan, Aljamain Sterling, Marlon Moraes) while his wins include John Dodson, Thomas Almeida, and Urijah Faber. He believes Rivera's takedown defense and reach advantage will be key. Cody Stamann's best win is over Song Yadong, but that win has lost value. Rivera is a level above and should win by decision.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo gives a slight lean to Cody Stamann, citing his wrestling and pace. He notes Douglas Silva de Andrade hits hard and is strong at 135, but Stamann can stick with the pace. He says both are durable and if he bets, it would be over 2.5 rounds. He calls it a slight lean.
Big Brady sees this as a close fight. He notes Stamann has a volume edge on the feet, but Andrade has a four-inch reach advantage and all the power and finishing upside. He mentions Andrade has good takedown defense and an excellent get-up game, making it hard for Stamann to hold him down. Brady expects a competitive striking match that likely goes to decision, and picks Andrade to win by landing the bigger shots and having the bigger moments, possibly via split decision.
Cody picks Stamann but is hesitant, noting that Stamann often struggles against opponents he should beat. He points out Stamann's close fight with Luan Lacerda where he was outstruck in damage. He worries about de Andrade's power and takedown defense, and thinks the line is accurate. He expects a close decision.
Connor leans toward Stamann but is less confident, noting that Stamann's new aggressive style still has hitches and that de Andrade's power and unpredictability could cause problems. He thinks Stamann's counterpunching and body work are key, but de Andrade's wild swings could land. Connor sees this as a good test for Stamann's evolution.
Daniel Levi picks Cody Stamann via decision, describing him as a solid, meat-and-potatoes fighter who does just enough to win. He notes that Stamann's fights are usually close, but he consistently edges out opponents. Levi acknowledges Silva de Andrade's power and submission threats, but believes Stamann's takedown defense and point fighting will earn him a narrow decision. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation for betting.
Stamann's speed and footwork will keep him out of danger against the aggressive, powerful Silva de Andrade. He can dart in and out with combinations, mix in takedowns to slow the Brazilian, and pull away later in the fight. Stamann is motivated and will put on a complete performance to win by decision.
Paul picks Stamann, expecting him to utilize his wrestling and pace. He notes that Stamann should avoid striking exchanges and take the fight to the ground. He thinks the line should be closer to -200 and sees value at -145. He mentions Stamann's takedown prop on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru leans towards Douglas Silva de Andrade, citing his toughness and dangerous pocket fighting. He notes that Cody Stamann has short reach and must be in the pocket, where Silva de Andrade is more dangerous. He predicts a close decision win.
Zane picks Cody Stamann, banking on his durability and newfound aggression. He notes that Stamann has never been knocked out and that his counterpunching and body work could exploit de Andrade's wild style. However, he acknowledges that de Andrade is dangerous and that Stamann's transformation is still incomplete, making this a tough test.
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