vs
+190 -215
UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida Next Fight
Age 45
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 41
Height 5' 11"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Matt Brown
3.76 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
2.92 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.68 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
1.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Court McGee
4.5 SLpM
36.0% Str. Acc.
3.65 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
1.78 TD Avg
24.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Matt Brown
Moneyline
FanDuel +190
KO/TKO
BetMGM +450
Submission
BetWay +1600
Decision
FanDuel +650
Court McGee
Moneyline
BetRivers -215
KO/TKO
BetRivers +650
Submission
FanDuel +700
Decision
BetRivers +110
Matt Brown - Fight History
WIN vs Court McGee
KO (punch) R1 4:09 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 11 of 15 73% 22 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 8 of 31 25% 17 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 1 11 of 15 73% 22 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 8 of 31 25% 17 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 2 of 4 3 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Court McGee 8 of 31 25% 2 of 21 2 of 5 4 of 5 6 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 2 of 4 3 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Court McGee 8 of 31 25% 2 of 21 2 of 5 4 of 5 6 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Angelo picks Matt Brown, saying he thinks Brown will be the more durable of the two. He notes Court McGee is coming off a bad knockout loss and his chin is a question. He acknowledges the line movement tracker shows McGee went from +140 to -180 favorite, and that trend has been 7-1, but he goes against it. He is not betting on this fight.

"I'm still going to lean Matt Brown I'm gonna go against that Trend there but no bet absolutely no bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Court McGee

Big Brady picks Court McGee but expresses distrust after McGee's fight against Condit where he didn't attempt a single takedown. He believes if McGee uses the right game plan—wrestling and taking down Matt Brown—he should win easily. Brady notes Brown is 42 with poor takedown defense and cardio, and McGee has better cardio and wrestling. He predicts a third-round submission, but says he can't fully trust McGee after the Condit fight.

third round submission
"I'll say he does do that I'll say he goes out there takes down Matt Brown rents the repeat and grinds this guy across three rounds maybe even a late finish could be on the table here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Cody picks McGee, citing his better gas tank and durability. He notes that Brown's chin and reflexes have declined with age, and that McGee's kickboxing is good enough to compete. He expects McGee to wrestle and control the fight, especially in later rounds. He mentions the 'died and came back' theory for cardio.

"I got to go with the durability and the cardio which both still favor Court McGee so I too will take Court McGee but uh it's an old man Legends fight which I am so down for"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Court McGee

Connor leans toward Court McGee, acknowledging that Matt Brown could knock him out early but that McGee's durability and pace are likely to carry him. He notes that Brown's endurance has declined and that McGee's grinding style is antithetical to Brown's current capabilities. Connor expects McGee to win by decision, as Brown's recent fights show he fades.

"I think I just have to lean McGee, like sure. Matt Brown could knock him out in the first round, right?"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting bias as he will attend the fight and is a fan. He believes Brown is historically the better fighter, having reached number five in the welterweight rankings, while McGee never cracked the top 15. However, he acknowledges Brown's age (42) and cardio issues, which could allow McGee to push the pace and mix in takedowns. Levi hopes Brown gets a knockout to tie the UFC record, but notes the pick is not based on a betting edge.

Brown by KO to tie UFC knockout record; no bet placed
"I'm gonna pick Matt Brown uh just because historically speaking I think he wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Court McGee

McGee has a cardio and pace advantage over the aging Brown. He will tie Brown up, use footwork to avoid big shots, and weaponize his cardio to take over in the later rounds. Brown has slowed down in recent fights and his wrestling may not be effective against McGee. McGee will grind out a decision victory.

"I think Court McGee will do a good job of tying him up using his but you know footwork and bicycle to get out of the way of these big shots of Matt Brown"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes that McGee can make the fight easy by sticking to takedowns and controlling Brown. He added McGee to a chalk parlay. He acknowledges the possibility of a 'gentleman's agreement' striking affair but believes McGee's grappling is the key.

added to parlay with Garry and Ulberg
"I think Court McGee can make this fight very easy on himself by sticking to the wrestling getting up in Matt Brown's face and getting takedowns and securing them and holding in position"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Matt Brown

The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown, citing his better recent performances and the fact that Court McGee is coming off a brutal KO loss. He believes Brown's toughness and aggression will be too much, predicting a KO in the second or third round.

KO in the second or third round
"I'm actually going to pick Matt Brown by KO in the second or third round here against Court mcgear"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Court McGee

Zane picks Court McGee because he believes McGee's pace and grinding style will overwhelm Matt Brown, who fades as fights progress. He notes that Brown is still dangerous early but lacks the endurance to keep up with McGee's constant pressure and wrestling. Zane expects McGee to win a decision, as Brown's recent losses show he slows down significantly.

"I guess I'll take court McGee just cause one round of chance from exactly."
LOSS vs Bryan Barberena
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryan Barberena 0 81 of 129 62% 95 of 145 5 of 7 71% 0 0 5:01
Matt Brown 0 111 of 211 52% 186 of 289 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryan Barberena 0 23 of 37 62% 25 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:39
Matt Brown 0 23 of 51 45% 62 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Bryan Barberena 0 23 of 36 63% 29 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:45
Matt Brown 0 35 of 60 58% 59 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:30
3 Bryan Barberena 0 35 of 56 62% 41 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:37
Matt Brown 0 53 of 100 53% 65 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryan Barberena 81 of 129 62% 36 of 75 38 of 44 7 of 10 51 of 95 24 of 28 6 of 6
Matt Brown 111 of 211 52% 82 of 170 12 of 18 17 of 23 78 of 164 28 of 42 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryan Barberena 23 of 37 62% 8 of 21 12 of 12 3 of 4 9 of 22 11 of 12 3 of 3
Matt Brown 23 of 51 45% 13 of 36 2 of 4 8 of 11 19 of 46 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Bryan Barberena 23 of 36 63% 9 of 20 12 of 14 2 of 2 17 of 29 6 of 7 0 of 0
Matt Brown 35 of 60 58% 26 of 47 2 of 3 7 of 10 23 of 45 7 of 10 5 of 5
3 Bryan Barberena 35 of 56 62% 19 of 34 14 of 18 2 of 4 25 of 44 7 of 9 3 of 3
Matt Brown 53 of 100 53% 43 of 87 8 of 11 2 of 2 36 of 73 17 of 27 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

Angelo picks Bryan Barberena, citing his durability, impressive volume, and forward pressure. He notes Barberena landed 108 strikes in his last fight and 169 against Vicente Luque. He thinks Barberena's constant volume will be the difference and expects a decision win. He says he probably won't bet on this fight.

"i need to go with brian barnard here he's incredibly durable his volume is impressive"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Big Brady picks Matt Brown to knock out Bryan Barberena in the first or second round. He believes Barberena is washed after the Luke fight, citing poor takedown defense and being dropped twice by Jason Witt. He notes that Brown still has power, as shown in his last fight against Lima, and that Barberena's chin is no longer reliable. Brady also mentions that Barberena has health issues and has been taken down frequently in recent fights.

Matt Brown wins by KO in round 1 or 2
"I'm gonna take the the 41 year old here to actually knock out brian barbarino we see that matt brown still has that power in his hands with his knockout in his last fight against lima."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Cody strongly favors Matt Brown, highlighting Barberena's declining durability and poor takedown defense. He notes Barberena's recent wars and losses, while Brown still has power and timing. He thinks Brown can win by KO or decision. He calls it his first bet of the week.

first bet of the week
"i'm actually gonna go towards the brown side of this one"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting he is biased as a fan. He believes Brown is the better fighter with more finishing ability and can mix in takedowns. He notes both fighters are on the decline but thinks Brown's power and hometown crowd will carry him. He is hesitant because of Brown's age and chin, and Barberena's durability. He also points out Barberena hasn't looked the same since the Luque fight.

"I'm still gonna go with matt brown here guys... I think he's going to be buoyed by this crowd"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

The host picks Barberena, noting his youth, body punching (30% of strikes to body), and Matt Brown's known body vulnerability. He expects a striking battle and believes Barberena will get a knockout, possibly in round 3 as Brown slows down. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.

Barberena inside the distance at +315; fight doesn't go to decision at -130 to -140; Barberena round 3 at +1050
"i'm gonna go brian barber arena as the pick but rather than picking a side here again the odds are great on either side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Paul picks Matt Brown, citing his wrestling advantage and Barberena's inability to stop takedowns. He notes Brown's hometown crowd and experience. He thinks Brown can grind out a win or land a big shot. He expects the line to move and hopes for plus money.

"i'm gonna pick matt brown but i'm very interested to hear what you got"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown by second-round TKO over Bryan Barberena. He envisions Barberena slightly edging the first round before getting caught with a big overhand. The Guru trusts Brown's power and recent resurgence, noting his second-round finish of Diego Lima, while Barberena's wars may leave him vulnerable.

second round tko
"i'm gonna go with matt the immortal brown my boy"
WIN vs Dhiego Lima
KO (punch) R2 3:02 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 27 of 49 55% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dhiego Lima 0 23 of 54 42% 23 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dhiego Lima 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Matt Brown 1 12 of 19 63% 15 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dhiego Lima 0 11 of 22 50% 11 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 27 of 49 55% 12 of 27 11 of 17 4 of 5 22 of 44 5 of 5 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 23 of 54 42% 8 of 38 4 of 4 11 of 12 22 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 15 of 30 50% 8 of 18 4 of 8 3 of 4 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 12 of 32 37% 2 of 21 2 of 2 8 of 9 11 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Matt Brown 12 of 19 63% 4 of 9 7 of 9 1 of 1 7 of 14 5 of 5 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 11 of 22 50% 6 of 17 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Angelo picks Matt Brown as an underdog, citing Lima's brother's recent loss as a potential emotional distraction. He thinks Brown's toughness, power, and underrated wrestling could be factors. He is not confident and has no bets on the fight, but likes the over on strikes for both.

monkey knife fight: more more (max play)
"i have matt brown winning this fight it is not the most confident pick i've ever had."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Big Brady picks the younger Lima, citing Brown's age (40) and 13 finished losses. He thinks Lima's leg kicks and youth will lead to a finish, but acknowledges Brown could knock Lima out. He recommends staying away from betting.

win by KO
"I will take the younger fighter in diego lima to get it done I'll say bye knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Cody picks Lima but is hesitant, noting Lima's questionable chin and recent split decisions. He acknowledges Matt Brown's early power but believes Brown's cardio and speed have declined. Cody thinks Lima's calf kicks and jab will allow him to pull away in later rounds, but he is not confident enough to bet.

"i think i gotta take the coward's way out and probably go with diego lima you know again i just i i don't love betting on these guys at this stage of their career"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Daniel Levi picks Dhiego Lima, citing youth and freshness. He notes that Matt Brown is 40 years old and his durability is declining, as seen in the Miguel Baeza fight where he was knocked out by punches for the first time. He believes Lima's calf kicks and left hook will be effective, and that he can either finish or win a decision. He respects Brown but thinks the age and recent performances favor Lima.

"i'm gonna go with diego lima by being the younger fresher guy i think he chops him down with calf kicks and maybe finds a left hook finish"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Jacob picks Dhiego Lima, expecting him to chew up Brown's legs with kicks and out-strike him. He thinks Brown's age and lack of volume will be issues. He has Lima in his lineup at $9,000 and believes Lima will dominate without a finish.

"i am picking diego he's in my lineup."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

The host picks Dhiego Lima by decision, citing his calf kicks and striking advantage. He notes Lima's cardio issues in his last fight but believes he can implement a similar game plan to the Miguel Baeza fight, where calf kicks debilitated Brown. He thinks Lima can get in and out of exchanges and slow Brown down. He is not highly confident but sees Lima as the better fighter against the 40-year-old Brown, who may be on a three-fight skid.

Lima by decision at +150; over 2.5 rounds at -130 mentioned as live; Lima by KO at +400 noted
"i'll go with diego lima to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Paul picks Lima, citing Lima's youth and striking advantage. He notes Brown's age (40) and declining cardio, and believes Lima can win by decision or late finish. Paul also bets under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish either way.

under 2.5 rounds +120
"i'll pick diego lima to win this fight diego or diego lima maybe in rounds two or three i guess is where i would go"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Dhiego Lima

The MMA Guru picks Dhiego Lima to win by first-round TKO via lead hook. He believes Matt Brown has taken too much damage and will rush in with his hands down, allowing Lima to land a check hook similar to the one Miguel Baeza landed on Brown. He references Lima's previous lead hook KO of Chad Laprise and expects Lima to finish Brown at the end of the first round.

lead hook KO, first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with diego lima i'm gonna go the lead hook ko... finish him at the end of the first round by tko"
LOSS vs Carlos Condit
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar · Jan 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Condit 0 39 of 88 44% 157 of 209 2 of 4 50% 0 1 4:52
Matt Brown 0 28 of 37 75% 37 of 52 1 of 6 16% 0 0 6:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Condit 0 6 of 22 27% 60 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:23
Matt Brown 0 9 of 14 64% 15 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:36
2 Carlos Condit 0 21 of 44 47% 58 of 83 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:25
Matt Brown 0 11 of 15 73% 12 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:37
3 Carlos Condit 0 12 of 22 54% 39 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:04
Matt Brown 0 8 of 8 100% 10 of 13 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Condit 39 of 88 44% 30 of 73 4 of 8 5 of 7 22 of 68 5 of 5 12 of 15
Matt Brown 28 of 37 75% 13 of 22 11 of 11 4 of 4 11 of 18 8 of 8 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Condit 6 of 22 27% 3 of 16 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 5
Matt Brown 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 7
2 Carlos Condit 21 of 44 47% 17 of 38 2 of 3 2 of 3 14 of 36 0 of 0 7 of 8
Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 3 of 7 6 of 6 2 of 2 6 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Carlos Condit 12 of 22 54% 10 of 19 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 15 5 of 5 2 of 2
Matt Brown 8 of 8 100% 4 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Big Brady picks Carlos Condit to win inside the distance, specifically by second-round knockout. He notes Condit's 90% finish rate and that he has never been knocked out, while Brown has been knocked out three times and is weak to the body. He believes Brown's durability is not what it once was and that Condit can finish him. He also mentions that Brown has been submitted 10 times, but Condit's path is via knockout.

second round knockout
"i'm going to say second round knockout for condit there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown as a slight underdog, calling it a 50-55 fight. He notes Condit's last win over Court McGee was unimpressive, while Brown has knockout power and a history of finishing fights. He expects Condit to try to point-fight, but Brown's pressure and body shots could be key. He admits low confidence.

"i'll take the plus 145 dog i'll go with matt brown"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Matt Brown's pressure style is a bad matchup for Condit, who struggles when opponents stay in his face and take away his space. Brown will push forward, use dirty boxing, and grind Condit against the cage. Condit's takedown defense is poor and he often relies on his back, but Brown is not a submission threat. Condit's best chance is on the feet with kicks, but Brown's durability and pressure should earn him a decision. The line should be closer to even, so plus money on Brown is value.

Matt Brown by decision is the most likely outcome; a TKO is possible but less likely given Condit's durability.
"I think matt brown given his style and what we've seen from him as of late... i would line it a little bit closer to an even type of fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Condit over Matt Brown, citing Condit's superior chin and striking. He notes Brown is losing his chin and coming off a TKO loss, while Condit has never been knocked out. He predicts Condit will win by third-round TKO once Brown gasses. He also mentions Condit's historical robbery against Robbie Lawler.

third round TKO
"i'm gonna go with carlos condit's chin sticking with him in this fight and him getting a tko finish in the third round once matt brown starts to gas a little bit from the stand up"
LOSS vs Miguel Baeza
TKO (punches) R2 0:18 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miguel Baeza 0 33 of 61 54% 33 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Matt Brown 2 37 of 73 50% 42 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miguel Baeza 0 33 of 59 55% 33 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Matt Brown 1 32 of 65 49% 37 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
2 Miguel Baeza 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matt Brown 1 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miguel Baeza 33 of 61 54% 25 of 51 8 of 10 0 of 0 21 of 44 12 of 17 0 of 0
Matt Brown 37 of 73 50% 21 of 54 5 of 7 11 of 12 29 of 62 1 of 2 7 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miguel Baeza 33 of 59 55% 25 of 49 8 of 10 0 of 0 21 of 42 12 of 17 0 of 0
Matt Brown 32 of 65 49% 17 of 48 5 of 6 10 of 11 25 of 56 1 of 2 6 of 7
2 Miguel Baeza 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Brown 5 of 8 62% 4 of 6 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Miguel Baeza

Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza by first-round knockout, but is hesitant. He notes that Baeza's leg kicks are a huge factor and that Brown is dangerous on the feet and has a path to victory via takedowns. He compares the fight to the Askarov vs. Kelleher fight where an undefeated fighter got knocked out. He does not agree with Baeza being a -175 favorite and thinks the line should be closer.

first-round knockout, leg kicks, underdog +155 for Brown
"I am going with by aiza and I'll tell you why but you cannot count on Matt Brown... I'm going with by Asia I'm gonna go by first-round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 16, 2020 (fight day)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi slightly leans with Matt Brown. He acknowledges that Miguel Baeza is super talented and could blow Brown out with a liver kick, but he thinks Brown will drag him into deep waters and drown him. He notes that Brown has historically been weak to the body but has been fighting with his hands down lately. He sees this as a good lesson for Baeza regardless.

"I'm gonna slightly lean with Matt Brown here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Matt Brown

The host picks Matt Brown, believing his veteran experience and pressure against the cage will overwhelm the undefeated Baeza. He thinks Baeza has not faced adversity and will struggle when things don't go his way. He predicts a TKO finish in the second or third round.

Matt Brown by TKO in the second or third round
"I think Matt Brown is gonna get this done maybe by finishing the second or third round I'll go with that TKO Matt Brown third or second round finish"
WIN vs Ben Saunders
KO (elbows and punches) R2 4:55 · UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Dec 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 0 30 of 47 63% 40 of 59 2 of 3 66% 0 0 7:34
Ben Saunders 0 12 of 23 52% 38 of 49 0 of 0 --- 4 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 0 5 of 10 50% 10 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:08
Ben Saunders 0 9 of 14 64% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 4 0 0:00
2 Matt Brown 0 25 of 37 67% 30 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:26
Ben Saunders 0 3 of 9 33% 24 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 30 of 47 63% 27 of 43 2 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 20 2 of 2 18 of 25
Ben Saunders 12 of 23 52% 10 of 17 2 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 5 of 10 50% 4 of 8 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 4
Ben Saunders 9 of 14 64% 9 of 12 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 8
2 Matt Brown 25 of 37 67% 23 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 14 2 of 2 16 of 21
Ben Saunders 3 of 9 33% 1 of 5 2 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Diego Sanchez
KO (elbow) R1 3:44 · UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Nov 11, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 18 of 34 52% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Diego Sanchez 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 1 18 of 34 52% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Diego Sanchez 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 18 of 34 52% 14 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 28 6 of 6 0 of 0
Diego Sanchez 12 of 20 60% 7 of 12 2 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 18 of 34 52% 14 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 28 6 of 6 0 of 0
Diego Sanchez 12 of 20 60% 7 of 12 2 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
LOSS vs Donald Cerrone
KO (Head Kick) R3 0:34 · UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · Dec 10, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Donald Cerrone 2 63 of 147 42% 64 of 148 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:35
Matt Brown 1 70 of 128 54% 73 of 131 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Donald Cerrone 0 34 of 72 47% 35 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Matt Brown 0 27 of 63 42% 29 of 65 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Donald Cerrone 1 25 of 70 35% 25 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Matt Brown 1 41 of 60 68% 42 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
3 Donald Cerrone 1 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Matt Brown 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Donald Cerrone 63 of 147 42% 46 of 126 7 of 11 10 of 10 62 of 143 1 of 4 0 of 0
Matt Brown 70 of 128 54% 42 of 91 28 of 36 0 of 1 62 of 118 8 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Donald Cerrone 34 of 72 47% 24 of 60 4 of 6 6 of 6 34 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Brown 27 of 63 42% 15 of 45 12 of 18 0 of 0 25 of 60 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Donald Cerrone 25 of 70 35% 19 of 62 3 of 5 3 of 3 24 of 66 1 of 4 0 of 0
Matt Brown 41 of 60 68% 26 of 43 15 of 16 0 of 1 35 of 53 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Donald Cerrone 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Brown 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Court McGee - Fight History
LOSS vs Michael Chiesa
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 72 of 160 45% 81 of 169 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:32
Court McGee 0 39 of 145 26% 51 of 158 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 15 of 45 33% 15 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 0 10 of 41 24% 11 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Chiesa 0 24 of 57 42% 25 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Court McGee 0 17 of 58 29% 20 of 62 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Michael Chiesa 0 33 of 58 56% 41 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:11
Court McGee 0 12 of 46 26% 20 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 72 of 160 45% 47 of 128 25 of 32 0 of 0 52 of 132 20 of 28 0 of 0
Court McGee 39 of 145 26% 9 of 95 16 of 29 14 of 21 36 of 140 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 15 of 45 33% 15 of 41 0 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 43 0 of 2 0 of 0
Court McGee 10 of 41 24% 2 of 27 6 of 9 2 of 5 9 of 39 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Michael Chiesa 24 of 57 42% 20 of 53 4 of 4 0 of 0 21 of 53 3 of 4 0 of 0
Court McGee 17 of 58 29% 4 of 39 4 of 9 9 of 10 16 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Michael Chiesa 33 of 58 56% 12 of 34 21 of 24 0 of 0 16 of 36 17 of 22 0 of 0
Court McGee 12 of 46 26% 3 of 29 6 of 11 3 of 6 11 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Court McGee

Angelo leans Court McGee because he is all-in on fighting while Chiesa has outside distractions. He notes that McGee looked great in his last fight and is durable. He believes whoever gets the first takedown wins, and McGee is strong enough to avoid submissions.

plus three and a half
"I'm going to go out on a limb and I'm going to pick him here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa by decision but is hesitant, noting that Court McGee has great takedown defense and has fought tough grapplers. He believes Chiesa has a little left in the tank while McGee is older and has been knocked out recently. He expects a competitive fight despite the wide line.

"I'm going to go Kesa here to win by decision but I just feel like it could be a little bit more competitive than the massive favorite line does indicate."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Chiesa's superior grappling will keep McGee in bad spots, likely snatching the back and grinding out a decision win.

"I have to lean with Kiesta here as I think his grappling will be superior..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The Guru picks Michael Chiesa by submission, noting Chiesa has been given favorable matchups recently (Tony Ferguson, Max Griffin). He expects Chiesa to take McGee down and get a submission in the first or second round, citing McGee's age (mid-40s) and Chiesa's back-take game.

Michael Chiesa by submission, round 1 or 2
"I'm going to take Michael Kasa to win this fight by submission. Um, I don't know who Michael Kasa has been nice to behind the scenes in the UFC to be getting all of these types of matchups when it …"
WIN vs Tim Means
Submission (neck crank) R1 3:19 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Court McGee 0 14 of 24 58% 19 of 35 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:58
Tim Means 0 5 of 13 38% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Court McGee 0 14 of 24 58% 19 of 35 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:58
Tim Means 0 5 of 13 38% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Court McGee 14 of 24 58% 9 of 18 3 of 4 2 of 2 14 of 22 0 of 2 0 of 0
Tim Means 5 of 13 38% 2 of 9 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Court McGee 14 of 24 58% 9 of 18 3 of 4 2 of 2 14 of 22 0 of 2 0 of 0
Tim Means 5 of 13 38% 2 of 9 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Court McGee

Angelo picks Court McGee, believing the fight is 50-50 and McGee's wrestling and pressure can be the difference. He notes Tim Means is a 2-to-1 favorite, which he considers unjustified given both fighters are old and worn. He placed a small bet on McGee at +195.

Bet 0.25 units on Court McGee at +195
"I'm leaning court court is going to be the pick... I threw a quarter of a unit on him at plus 195"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tim Means

Big Brady is hesitant on this fight, noting that both fighters are veterans and he doesn't trust either. He leans towards Tim Means because he believes Means still has a little left in the tank, while Court McGee hasn't had a finish since 2010 and has been losing to lower-level competition. He expects McGee to attempt takedowns but thinks Means will do better work on the feet and win a decision.

"I just feel like Tim Means is has just a little little bit left in the gas tank at at this at this point of time so I think it's going to be close it's probably going to be greasy …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Cody picks McGee, citing his home-field advantage in Utah and cardio. He notes Means' tendency to gas and get submitted. He believes McGee can outlast Means and possibly win by submission.

Court McGee by submission
"it's me and mgee as well brother"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tim Means

Connor picks Means based on sentiment, acknowledging it's not a sound analysis. He notes that Means is old and has lost speed, but Court McGee is not a powerful striker and Means' craft might be enough. He wants Means to go out on a win.

"I'm going to pick Tim Means simply because I adore him. And I would like this to be his last fight. And I would like him to go out on a win."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tim Means

Daniel Vreeland picks Tim Means, citing his slick striking and improved wrestling. He notes that Court McGee has slowed down drastically and was nearly beaten by Alex Morono. Vreeland expects Means to knock out McGee, though he is hesitant to lay heavy chalk on a fighter who has lost four of his last five.

"I like the Slicker striking style of Tim me his wrestling's gotten a lot better I think he's got a good chance to come out here and knock out Court McGee"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tim Means

The host believes Tim Means is the better overall fighter and will utilize his clinch with knees and elbows, as well as distance striking with kicks and long-range weapons, to pick apart Court McGee. He expects Means to win on the scorecards, noting that McGee lacks significant knockout power.

"I do think that means is the better overall fighter in this spot and I don't think he'll have too much knockout power to worry about on the McGee side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his durability and wrestling. He thinks McGee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. He sees value at plus 170 and expects a close decision or late finish.

"McGee for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Court McGee

The MMA Guru picks Court McGee over Tim Means, citing McGee's training at altitude in Utah as a key advantage. He notes both fighters are past their prime but believes McGee is less finishable and will employ a boring cage control game, failing takedowns but winning the pressure game. He predicts a decision victory for McGee, as neither fighter is likely to finish early.

"I'm going to say Court McGee wins this one by decision and I'm pretty confident in it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tim Means

Zane also picks Means for sentimental reasons, calling himself a long-time Dirty Bird fan. He acknowledges that Means has lost a step but notes that McGee is not a dangerous striker and Means' experience might carry him. He admits it's not a pick based on sound analysis.

"I'm going to rise with Tim Means just for us. Long time Dirty Bird fans."
LOSS vs Alex Morono
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 60 of 160 37% 78 of 184 1 of 6 16% 0 0 3:20
Court McGee 0 38 of 141 26% 42 of 149 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 0 12 of 50 24% 12 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alex Morono 0 20 of 41 48% 36 of 61 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:12
Court McGee 0 9 of 28 32% 12 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Alex Morono 0 18 of 67 26% 20 of 71 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:08
Court McGee 0 17 of 63 26% 18 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 60 of 160 37% 14 of 73 29 of 55 17 of 32 52 of 148 0 of 1 8 of 11
Court McGee 38 of 141 26% 26 of 118 9 of 18 3 of 5 38 of 139 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 22 of 52 42% 3 of 16 13 of 25 6 of 11 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Court McGee 12 of 50 24% 8 of 42 2 of 6 2 of 2 12 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alex Morono 20 of 41 48% 7 of 21 8 of 12 5 of 8 12 of 30 0 of 1 8 of 10
Court McGee 9 of 28 32% 6 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alex Morono 18 of 67 26% 4 of 36 8 of 18 6 of 13 18 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 1
Court McGee 17 of 63 26% 12 of 51 4 of 9 1 of 3 17 of 61 0 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo picks Alex Morono because he believes Morono is a step ahead everywhere in this fight and could potentially finish an aging Court McGee. He notes that McGee relied on his work ethic and chin, but at 39, that chin is gone and hard work alone won't get wins. Morono is somewhat unreliable himself, but Angelo thinks he should be good here.

"Morono is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady picks Alex Morono to win by decision. He notes that Morono is six years younger, has better striking volume, and good jiu-jitsu. He believes Court McGee's durability is waning after recent knockouts, but doesn't expect a finish. He thinks Morono will be better wherever the fight goes.

win by decision
"I'm taking morono here I'm taking morono to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Cody agrees, noting McGee's recent knockout losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells. He thinks Morono's volume and speed will be too much, and that McGee's pressure game won't work against a more technical striker. Cody also mentions Morono's competitive fight with Joaquin Buckley has aged well.

"morona kills him... I think it's Justified Chuck on Alex morono"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Alex Morono to finish Court McGee in the first round. He compares McGee to past veterans Morono has stopped, like Josh Burkman and Tim Means, noting McGee is 40 and slow. Vreeland believes Morono's speed, power, and vicious intent will overwhelm McGee, and even if taken down, Morono can pop back up. He predicts a first-round knockout or submission.

first round finish
"I actually think Alex Morano gets a first round finish man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Morono is younger, more durable, and has better striking volume and power. McGee's chin is fading after recent knockouts. Morono's defensive grappling should be enough to keep the fight standing, where he can land damaging combinations. Expect a finish in the second or third round.

Morono by KO/TKO or submission (club and sub)
"I think he knocks out or clubs and Subs McGee at some point in this matchup early going should be a little bit grindy a little bit close but as this fight starts to wear on is and as morono …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Paul is confident in Morono, citing McGee's age, declining durability, and recent knockout losses. He notes McGee's wins are over one-dimensional grapplers, while Morono has better footwork, volume, and takedown defense. Paul thinks Morono will outwork McGee and possibly knock him out, as McGee's durability is gone.

by KO
"morona kills him... don't mind Alex morono knockout one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The host picks Morono based on output and commitment. He notes Morono looked amazing against Buckley and is better than Ventre. He criticizes McGee's recent losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells. He predicts neither will get a KO or dominate grappling, so Morono's higher volume will win a decision.

"I'm going to go Alex morono more committed to the game more volume on the feet and I doubt either of them get a KO over over each other"
LOSS vs Matt Brown
KO (punch) R1 4:09 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 11 of 15 73% 22 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 8 of 31 25% 17 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 1 11 of 15 73% 22 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 8 of 31 25% 17 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 2 of 4 3 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Court McGee 8 of 31 25% 2 of 21 2 of 5 4 of 5 6 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 2 of 4 3 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Court McGee 8 of 31 25% 2 of 21 2 of 5 4 of 5 6 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Angelo picks Matt Brown, saying he thinks Brown will be the more durable of the two. He notes Court McGee is coming off a bad knockout loss and his chin is a question. He acknowledges the line movement tracker shows McGee went from +140 to -180 favorite, and that trend has been 7-1, but he goes against it. He is not betting on this fight.

"I'm still going to lean Matt Brown I'm gonna go against that Trend there but no bet absolutely no bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Court McGee

Big Brady picks Court McGee but expresses distrust after McGee's fight against Condit where he didn't attempt a single takedown. He believes if McGee uses the right game plan—wrestling and taking down Matt Brown—he should win easily. Brady notes Brown is 42 with poor takedown defense and cardio, and McGee has better cardio and wrestling. He predicts a third-round submission, but says he can't fully trust McGee after the Condit fight.

third round submission
"I'll say he does do that I'll say he goes out there takes down Matt Brown rents the repeat and grinds this guy across three rounds maybe even a late finish could be on the table here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Cody picks McGee, citing his better gas tank and durability. He notes that Brown's chin and reflexes have declined with age, and that McGee's kickboxing is good enough to compete. He expects McGee to wrestle and control the fight, especially in later rounds. He mentions the 'died and came back' theory for cardio.

"I got to go with the durability and the cardio which both still favor Court McGee so I too will take Court McGee but uh it's an old man Legends fight which I am so down for"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Court McGee

Connor leans toward Court McGee, acknowledging that Matt Brown could knock him out early but that McGee's durability and pace are likely to carry him. He notes that Brown's endurance has declined and that McGee's grinding style is antithetical to Brown's current capabilities. Connor expects McGee to win by decision, as Brown's recent fights show he fades.

"I think I just have to lean McGee, like sure. Matt Brown could knock him out in the first round, right?"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting bias as he will attend the fight and is a fan. He believes Brown is historically the better fighter, having reached number five in the welterweight rankings, while McGee never cracked the top 15. However, he acknowledges Brown's age (42) and cardio issues, which could allow McGee to push the pace and mix in takedowns. Levi hopes Brown gets a knockout to tie the UFC record, but notes the pick is not based on a betting edge.

Brown by KO to tie UFC knockout record; no bet placed
"I'm gonna pick Matt Brown uh just because historically speaking I think he wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Court McGee

McGee has a cardio and pace advantage over the aging Brown. He will tie Brown up, use footwork to avoid big shots, and weaponize his cardio to take over in the later rounds. Brown has slowed down in recent fights and his wrestling may not be effective against McGee. McGee will grind out a decision victory.

"I think Court McGee will do a good job of tying him up using his but you know footwork and bicycle to get out of the way of these big shots of Matt Brown"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes that McGee can make the fight easy by sticking to takedowns and controlling Brown. He added McGee to a chalk parlay. He acknowledges the possibility of a 'gentleman's agreement' striking affair but believes McGee's grappling is the key.

added to parlay with Garry and Ulberg
"I think Court McGee can make this fight very easy on himself by sticking to the wrestling getting up in Matt Brown's face and getting takedowns and securing them and holding in position"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Matt Brown

The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown, citing his better recent performances and the fact that Court McGee is coming off a brutal KO loss. He believes Brown's toughness and aggression will be too much, predicting a KO in the second or third round.

KO in the second or third round
"I'm actually going to pick Matt Brown by KO in the second or third round here against Court mcgear"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Court McGee

Zane picks Court McGee because he believes McGee's pace and grinding style will overwhelm Matt Brown, who fades as fights progress. He notes that Brown is still dangerous early but lacks the endurance to keep up with McGee's constant pressure and wrestling. Zane expects McGee to win a decision, as Brown's recent losses show he slows down significantly.

"I guess I'll take court McGee just cause one round of chance from exactly."
LOSS vs Jeremiah Wells
KO (punch) R1 1:34 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jeremiah Wells 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 1 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jeremiah Wells 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 1 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jeremiah Wells 3 of 8 37% 0 of 4 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Court McGee 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jeremiah Wells 3 of 8 37% 0 of 4 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Court McGee 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Court McGee vs. Jeremiah Wells
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McGee (-120), Wells (+100)

Round 1
Even though UFC experience and fight mileage both weigh heavily on “The Crusher” McGee (21-10, 10-9 UFC), he will come into this matchup on his first UFC win streak since 2013. The Utah native will clock in only two years the elder of Wells (10-2-1, 2-0 UFC), who surges into this contest on the heels of four finishes in two rounds or less. Referee Herb Dean might have his hands full for this one, as Wells is darting back and forth and does not engage to touch gloves. Instead, Wells shifts laterally back and forth, and McGee reaches out towards him with a jab to the chest. Wells keeps his range and switches stances constantly, lulling McGee into a rhythm. “The Crusher” simply remains calm and lands a heavy leg kick, and he blocks high when Wells crashes towards him with punches. Wells throws himself off-balance when swinging at him, and McGee blocks the blows and splits the guard with a one-two in response. Wells jumps forward to attack, and he pushes out a jab and a right that comes up short.
The Pennsylvania follows up with a left hook that connects right on the button, and McGee is out cold as he falls with his limbs frozen in rigor mortis down to the canvas. The back of McGee’s head collides with the mat, and when it does, Wells follows him down with two brutal punches, which are all that land until Dean can sprint across the cage to break them up and pull Wells off.
There’s something in the water here today in Austin, as Wells practically did the unthinkable by cleanly knocking McGee all the way out.

The Official Result
Jeremiah Wells def. Court McGee R1 1:34 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Court McGee

Angelo picks Court McGee, noting his recent grappling resurgence and dominant wins over Claudio Silva and Ramiz Brahimaj. He believes McGee's takedowns and control will lead to another decision win. He acknowledges Jeremiah Wells' danger but thinks McGee's durability and cardio will prevail.

"i think i'm going court mcgee here because if he comes forward the way he did against ramis he can have success with the takedowns and the control to win another decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Big Brady picks Court McGee to win by decision. He believes McGee is the more experienced fighter with better volume and technical striking, and has shown improved wrestling. He notes Wells has power but lacks volume and cardio, and McGee is extremely durable with only one finish loss. He thinks McGee will be the minute winner on the feet and can handle Wells' grappling.

decision
"I think court mcgee is the rightful favor i think he's fought the much better competition by a mile he's the more experienced fighter by mile"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Cody picks McGee, citing his durability, wrestling, and experience. He thinks Wells will come out hot but fade, and McGee will grind him down in rounds 2 and 3. He suggests McGee by decision as a prop.

Court McGee by decision
"i think court mcgee's uh i think i think he's gonna be my rightful selection"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

Daniel Levi is confident in Jeremiah Wells as an underdog, citing Wells' athleticism, power, and black belt jiu-jitsu. He notes Court McGee is 37 and has lost five of his last eight, while Wells is younger and hungrier. Levi likes that Wells is getting plus money and believes he will be too fast and strong for McGee. He is considering a bet on Wells.

underdog shot; Wells +105; considering a bet
"i like jeremiah wells here as an underdog shot and i think he comes out here and takes care of the guy we all respect"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Paul agrees with McGee, noting Wells' one-dimensional style and McGee's takedown ability. He thinks McGee can survive the early storm and take over. He suggests waiting to see how round one goes before betting.

"i think court mcgee's uh he's live"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

The MMA Guru picks Jeremiah Wells to win by KO, noting that Court McGee is 37 and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Wells is a freak athlete with explosive power and good grappling, as shown against Blood Diamond. He predicts Wells will catch McGee with a straight right and finish him in the first round.

first round ko
"jeremiah wells is going to get this one done i reckon he's going to get it done by ko here... first round ko for jeremiah wells with a straight right hand"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Court McGee 1 54 of 91 59% 76 of 113 5 of 11 45% 1 0 10:57
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 32 of 62 51% 35 of 65 1 of 3 33% 1 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Court McGee 1 30 of 51 58% 42 of 63 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:58
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 15 of 33 45% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Court McGee 0 21 of 37 56% 24 of 40 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:11
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 14 of 25 56% 15 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:30
3 Court McGee 0 3 of 3 100% 10 of 10 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:48
Ramiz Brahimaj 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Court McGee 54 of 91 59% 30 of 63 17 of 21 7 of 7 46 of 81 4 of 6 4 of 4
Ramiz Brahimaj 32 of 62 51% 21 of 51 10 of 10 1 of 1 25 of 53 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Court McGee 30 of 51 58% 13 of 31 13 of 16 4 of 4 28 of 48 1 of 2 1 of 1
Ramiz Brahimaj 15 of 33 45% 11 of 29 4 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 30 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Court McGee 21 of 37 56% 16 of 31 3 of 4 2 of 2 15 of 30 3 of 4 3 of 3
Ramiz Brahimaj 14 of 25 56% 9 of 20 5 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 20 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Court McGee 3 of 3 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ramiz Brahimaj 3 of 4 75% 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Angelo picks Brahimaj, citing his world-class jiu-jitsu and the blueprint from Sean Brady's win over McGee. He notes Brahimaj's tendency to strike instead of grapple but expects him to stick to grappling here. He believes Brahimaj will get takedowns and control McGee to a decision win, as McGee is incredibly tough to finish.

"i expect the exact same thing for rami's brahimage i think he will grapple in this fight i think he'll get some takedowns and i think he'll have solid top pressure"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Court McGee

Big Brady highlights that Brahimaj has a 100% submission rate but has never been past the first round, while McGee has never been submitted in 30 fights. He expects Brahimaj to slow down after the first round, allowing McGee's cardio and striking to take over. He picks McGee by decision, noting McGee's takedown defense and ability to get back up.

"i'm going to take court megiddo in i'm going to take court mcgee to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Cody picks Brahimaj, emphasizing his youth, athleticism, and grappling. He notes McGee's skills are outdated and his takedown defense is poor. He expects Brahimaj to win via decision, possibly with a submission attempt. He mentions McGee's cardio but doubts it will be enough.

Brahimaj by decision
"decision victory for ramis brahimaj and honestly the straight-up money line is uh not too bad"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Daniel Levi picks Ramiz Brahimaj, citing youth and momentum. He notes that Brahimaj is a beast on the mat when fresh, but has cardio and plan B concerns. Levi believes Brahimaj can finish Court McGee, who is 37 and has shown signs of slowing. He argues that McGee's recent wins are over older opponents and that Brahimaj's talent will shine. Levi expects a statement finish from Brahimaj.

finish
"i'm going to go with ron means to to get a finisher"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Court McGee

The host favors Court McGee due to his veteran savvy, cardio, and takedown defense. He notes Brahimaj's all-offense style and suspect cardio, expecting McGee to weather an early storm and take over in later rounds. The host highlights McGee's never-submitted record and ability to get back to his feet. He predicts a decision win for McGee, possibly with a late finish if Brahimaj gasses.

Live betting opportunity on McGee after round 1 mentioned.
"official prediction here is going to be court mcgee via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Paul leans toward Brahimaj, noting his youth, athleticism, and grappling. He expects Brahimaj to take McGee down and control him. He questions if Brahimaj can maintain pace for three rounds but thinks his submission threat will be enough. He mentions McGee's durability and cardio as potential factors.

"i'm kind of with you i'll lean towards rami's probably maj to get the job done"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

The MMA Guru picks Ramiz Brahimaj to win, noting that he is younger, trains at a good gym, and has more finishing ability. He was initially tempted by Court McGee as an underdog but realized Brahimaj is actually the underdog. He trusts Brahimaj's grappling and striking in the early rounds, and believes his desire to return after the ear injury shows dedication. He acknowledges McGee's pressure and toughness could be a factor in later rounds, but thinks Brahimaj will win the early rounds enough to take a decision or finish.

Brahimaj is an underdog.
"i think ram is brahimage is going to win this one very good in the early rounds"
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Court McGee 0 37 of 74 50% 110 of 157 3 of 5 60% 1 0 8:03
Cláudio Silva 0 21 of 56 37% 81 of 126 1 of 10 10% 0 0 1:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Court McGee 0 10 of 30 33% 29 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:51
Cláudio Silva 0 6 of 24 25% 13 of 33 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:09
2 Court McGee 0 16 of 25 64% 36 of 48 0 of 1 0% 1 0 3:35
Cláudio Silva 0 3 of 11 27% 15 of 25 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:22
3 Court McGee 0 11 of 19 57% 45 of 59 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:37
Cláudio Silva 0 12 of 21 57% 53 of 68 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Court McGee 37 of 74 50% 22 of 53 9 of 14 6 of 7 23 of 58 2 of 3 12 of 13
Cláudio Silva 21 of 56 37% 8 of 36 9 of 15 4 of 5 19 of 52 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Court McGee 10 of 30 33% 4 of 19 3 of 7 3 of 4 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cláudio Silva 6 of 24 25% 2 of 16 1 of 4 3 of 4 6 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Court McGee 16 of 25 64% 13 of 22 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 13 1 of 2 9 of 10
Cláudio Silva 3 of 11 27% 1 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Court McGee 11 of 19 57% 5 of 12 4 of 5 2 of 2 7 of 15 1 of 1 3 of 3
Cláudio Silva 12 of 21 57% 5 of 12 6 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Court McGee

Big Brady picks McGee, expecting him to survive Silva's dangerous first round and take over in rounds 2 and 3 due to superior cardio and output. He notes Silva's cardio fades, McGee's never been submitted, and his takedown defense and get-up game are solid. He predicts a 29-28 decision or late finish.

McGee by decision or late finish
"i will take court mckee to survive that first round not get submitted"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Cody Saftic picks Court McGee, expressing frustration with Cláudio Silva's ugly style but acknowledging Silva's ability to win. He believes McGee's cardio and durability will allow him to survive Silva's early takedowns and win the later rounds. Saftic notes that Silva has poor striking and takedowns, and that McGee is a good gatekeeper who should be able to sprawl and brawl. He suggests a live bet on McGee if Silva wins the first round.

live bet McGee
"i'm gonna go with court mcgee uh but there's not a whole lot of guys in the ufc i would bet court mcgee over at this point"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cláudio Silva

Daniel Levi picks Cláudio Silva, citing Silva's aggression, opportunistic style, and world-class jiu-jitsu. He notes that Court McGee's style hasn't evolved, he's been getting dropped in fights, and he's 3-7 in his last 10. He predicts Silva will take McGee down and submit him, possibly becoming the first man to submit McGee. He also thinks Silva could win a decision if it goes three rounds.

first round submission
"i personally think claudio is going to take him down one time and the fight's going to be over shortly after but if it becomes a three-round war i also take lajo there as well but i'm going to say …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Matt picks Court McGee by decision, but with very low confidence, calling it a stay-away fight. He notes McGee has looked past his prime, while Silva has a poor gas tank. He thinks McGee can nullify Silva's takedowns and pick him apart on the feet as Silva fades. However, he acknowledges Silva's elite jiu-jitsu is a threat, and McGee has never been submitted. He mentions a possible third-round finish for McGee at +1600 but is not confident.

Court McGee round 3 (+1600)
"i'll go core mcgee i think he ends up staying away from the takedowns and just picks apart claudio silva"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Paul Shaughnessy agrees with McGee, noting that Silva is frustrating to watch and that McGee has better cardio and durability. He believes McGee will win the second and third rounds after surviving Silva's early grappling. He mentions that Silva's wins are often close decisions and that McGee is the logical choice.

"for that reason i gotta go with court mcgee am i super pumped up about that no um but to me it's the logical and it's the right choice"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Cláudio Silva

The MMA Guru predicts Cláudio Silva will win by split decision in a very close fight. He expects McGee to outstrike Silva on the feet, but Silva will time takedowns and have close submission attempts that sway the rounds in his favor. He compares it to the Bobby Green vs Thiago Moises fight, but with Silva winning this time.

"i'm going to be going with claudio silva by split decision"
LOSS vs Carlos Condit
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Condit 1 88 of 230 38% 88 of 230 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 84 of 182 46% 84 of 182 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Condit 1 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 0 31 of 63 49% 31 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Condit 0 30 of 71 42% 30 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 0 26 of 56 46% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carlos Condit 0 43 of 121 35% 43 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 27 of 63 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Condit 88 of 230 38% 50 of 173 17 of 34 21 of 23 87 of 228 0 of 0 1 of 2
Court McGee 84 of 182 46% 9 of 73 28 of 51 47 of 58 84 of 182 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Condit 15 of 38 39% 5 of 19 4 of 12 6 of 7 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Court McGee 31 of 63 49% 3 of 22 11 of 17 17 of 24 31 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Condit 30 of 71 42% 17 of 54 7 of 11 6 of 6 30 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Court McGee 26 of 56 46% 3 of 19 6 of 17 17 of 20 26 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carlos Condit 43 of 121 35% 28 of 100 6 of 11 9 of 10 42 of 119 0 of 0 1 of 2
Court McGee 27 of 63 42% 3 of 32 11 of 17 13 of 14 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Court McGee

Big Brady picks Court McGee to win by decision. He notes McGee's clear path to victory via takedowns, as Condit has poor takedown defense. He thinks Condit's only chance is a submission off his back, but McGee has never been submitted.

"give me court mcgee to win a pretty pretty ugly decision here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Daniel leans with Condit, reasoning that McGee's training camp was subpar (mainly drilling with his 13-year-old son) and that Condit has had moments of success against higher-level competition. He acknowledges Condit's five-fight losing streak but thinks this is a winnable fight, predicting a split decision. He notes that McGee's takedowns could be a factor but Condit might capitalize on submissions.

Condit by split decision; mentions McGee's camp issues; notes Condit's submission threat off his back
"i think conde might actually this is the one fight con that can win ben saunders beat this guy so i'm gonna go with carlos conde via split decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

The host leans toward Court McGee due to Condit's poor takedown defense and McGee's durability, but he is not confident enough to bet at -135. He predicts a decision win for McGee but says he would only bet if McGee were plus money.

Over 2.5 rounds -250 (not recommended)
"my head definitely says court mcgee... but even at minus 135 i can't take the shot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

The Guru picks Carlos Condit, noting his good ground game and submission threats against Michael Chiesa. He believes Condit is naturally bigger and can push the pace, and predicts a submission by armbar in the second round or a decision. He sees nothing in McGee's game to suggest he can beat Condit.

Prediction: submission (armbar) round 2 or decision
"i'm going to be going with carlos condit getting a job done taller guy naturally bigger welterweight can push the pace as well"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Angelo picks Matt Brown, saying he thinks Brown will be the more durable of the two. He notes Court McGee is coming off a bad knockout loss and his chin is a question. He acknowledges the line movement tracker shows McGee went from +140 to -180 favorite, and that trend has been 7-1, but he goes against it. He is not betting on this fight.

"I'm still going to lean Matt Brown I'm gonna go against that Trend there but no bet absolutely no bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Court McGee

Big Brady picks Court McGee but expresses distrust after McGee's fight against Condit where he didn't attempt a single takedown. He believes if McGee uses the right game plan—wrestling and taking down Matt Brown—he should win easily. Brady notes Brown is 42 with poor takedown defense and cardio, and McGee has better cardio and wrestling. He predicts a third-round submission, but says he can't fully trust McGee after the Condit fight.

third round submission
"I'll say he does do that I'll say he goes out there takes down Matt Brown rents the repeat and grinds this guy across three rounds maybe even a late finish could be on the table here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Cody picks McGee, citing his better gas tank and durability. He notes that Brown's chin and reflexes have declined with age, and that McGee's kickboxing is good enough to compete. He expects McGee to wrestle and control the fight, especially in later rounds. He mentions the 'died and came back' theory for cardio.

"I got to go with the durability and the cardio which both still favor Court McGee so I too will take Court McGee but uh it's an old man Legends fight which I am so down for"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Court McGee

Connor leans toward Court McGee, acknowledging that Matt Brown could knock him out early but that McGee's durability and pace are likely to carry him. He notes that Brown's endurance has declined and that McGee's grinding style is antithetical to Brown's current capabilities. Connor expects McGee to win by decision, as Brown's recent fights show he fades.

"I think I just have to lean McGee, like sure. Matt Brown could knock him out in the first round, right?"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting bias as he will attend the fight and is a fan. He believes Brown is historically the better fighter, having reached number five in the welterweight rankings, while McGee never cracked the top 15. However, he acknowledges Brown's age (42) and cardio issues, which could allow McGee to push the pace and mix in takedowns. Levi hopes Brown gets a knockout to tie the UFC record, but notes the pick is not based on a betting edge.

Brown by KO to tie UFC knockout record; no bet placed
"I'm gonna pick Matt Brown uh just because historically speaking I think he wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Court McGee

McGee has a cardio and pace advantage over the aging Brown. He will tie Brown up, use footwork to avoid big shots, and weaponize his cardio to take over in the later rounds. Brown has slowed down in recent fights and his wrestling may not be effective against McGee. McGee will grind out a decision victory.

"I think Court McGee will do a good job of tying him up using his but you know footwork and bicycle to get out of the way of these big shots of Matt Brown"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes that McGee can make the fight easy by sticking to takedowns and controlling Brown. He added McGee to a chalk parlay. He acknowledges the possibility of a 'gentleman's agreement' striking affair but believes McGee's grappling is the key.

added to parlay with Garry and Ulberg
"I think Court McGee can make this fight very easy on himself by sticking to the wrestling getting up in Matt Brown's face and getting takedowns and securing them and holding in position"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Matt Brown

The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown, citing his better recent performances and the fact that Court McGee is coming off a brutal KO loss. He believes Brown's toughness and aggression will be too much, predicting a KO in the second or third round.

KO in the second or third round
"I'm actually going to pick Matt Brown by KO in the second or third round here against Court mcgear"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Court McGee

Zane picks Court McGee because he believes McGee's pace and grinding style will overwhelm Matt Brown, who fades as fights progress. He notes that Brown is still dangerous early but lacks the endurance to keep up with McGee's constant pressure and wrestling. Zane expects McGee to win a decision, as Brown's recent losses show he slows down significantly.

"I guess I'll take court McGee just cause one round of chance from exactly."