vs
-220 +184
UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 42
Height 6' 2"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Alex Morono
4.9 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
4.88 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.32 TD Avg
24.0% TD Acc.
47.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Tim Means
5.04 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.65 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
1.14 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Alex Morono
Moneyline
FanDuel -220
KO/TKO
BetWay +300
Submission
FanDuel +750
Decision
BetRivers +180
Tim Means
Moneyline
FanDuel +184
KO/TKO
BetMGM +650
Submission
BetMGM +1400
Decision
BetRivers +440
Alex Morono - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 40 of 146 27% 48 of 154 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniil Donchenko 1 100 of 162 61% 134 of 214 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 16 of 38 42% 22 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniil Donchenko 1 39 of 59 66% 70 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:44
2 Alex Morono 0 6 of 43 13% 7 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniil Donchenko 0 27 of 40 67% 30 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
3 Alex Morono 0 18 of 65 27% 19 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniil Donchenko 0 34 of 63 53% 34 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 40 of 146 27% 37 of 138 2 of 7 1 of 1 36 of 137 4 of 9 0 of 0
Daniil Donchenko 100 of 162 61% 45 of 99 21 of 28 34 of 35 82 of 134 7 of 11 11 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 16 of 38 42% 13 of 33 2 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
Daniil Donchenko 39 of 59 66% 23 of 42 8 of 9 8 of 8 25 of 37 3 of 5 11 of 17
2 Alex Morono 6 of 43 13% 6 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 39 1 of 4 0 of 0
Daniil Donchenko 27 of 40 67% 9 of 18 7 of 10 11 of 12 24 of 37 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Alex Morono 18 of 65 27% 18 of 63 0 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 63 1 of 2 0 of 0
Daniil Donchenko 34 of 63 53% 13 of 39 6 of 9 15 of 15 33 of 60 1 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Angelo picks Daniil Donchenko despite believing Alex Morono is the better fighter skill-for-skill. He explains that Morono is a 'moron' who will stand and trade instead of using his high-level jiu-jitsu. Donchenko hits hard and Morono is on a three-fight skid. He thinks Morono has the easiest path to victory by grappling but won't do it, so he picks Donchenko.

"Denil Donenko is the pick. I I I He just hits too hard and Alex is going to stand there and try to go slike with him. It's just dumb."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Big Brady picks Daniil Donchenko, praising his aggressive style and dangerous striking. He questions Alex Morono's commitment to fighting, noting he has other pursuits and has looked poor in recent fights. He expects Donchenko to pressure and finish Morono early, similar to Carlos Liao's win over Morono.

by first round knockout
"I like Donchenko. I like Donchenko by first round knockout. I think he runs through Alex Morono."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Cody agrees, highlighting Donchenko's power and Morono's chin issues. He notes Donchenko's tendency to gas but expects an early finish. Cody suggests betting Donchenko live after the first round if he doesn't finish, but overall picks Donchenko.

"Donchenko is just highly aggressive and sits down on his punches and you know, maybe he can topple him over."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Morono is a subpar athlete who has lost his speed and durability. He notes that Donchenko is young and technical, and that Morono's wins were over past-prime fighters. Connor concludes that Donchenko will win purely based on age and physical decline.

Morono opened at +385, currently +525; Donchenko opened at -500, currently -725
"So it makes perfect sense to then match him up with Daniil Donchenko right now. And that's definitely a fight I have to think about hard to figure out how it's going to go."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Lucrative James picks Daniil Donchenko to win by TKO in round two or three. He trusts Donchenko's youth, physicality, and improvement, while noting that Morono is aging and has a questionable chin. James expects Morono to start well but fade as the fight progresses.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm trusting Donenko. I'm trusting in his youth, physicality, power, durability, upside. and I'm trusting in his improvement upside to get the job done. I think be a TKO in round two or round three."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

The host picks Donchenko by first-round knockout, calling it a horrible stylistic matchup for Morono. He highlights Donchenko's Muay Thai, especially his elbows and knees, and his aggressive pressure. He notes Morono's chin is fading and he struggles with cardio, making him vulnerable to an early finish.

round 1 knockout
"So once again, give me Denil Donenko round one knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Paul picks Daniil Donchenko, citing his power and aggression. He notes Morono's recent losses and declining durability. Paul expects Donchenko to finish early but warns about his cardio if it goes past the first round. He suggests betting Donchenko but not at heavy favorite odds.

"It's got to be Don Shenko favorite status on this side."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Daniil Donchenko

The host picks Daniil Donchenko over Alex Morono. He is very confident, predicting a first-round TKO. He notes Donchenko's aggressive style, elbows, body work, and low kicks. He thinks Morono can take a beating but Donchenko's cutting shots and pressure will overwhelm him early.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Danil Donchenko getting a first round TKO over Alex Morono all day long."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Zane picks Donchenko based on age and decline of Morono. He notes that Morono is slower and more fragile, and that Donchenko is a young, technical, and violent fighter who can execute at multiple levels. Zane believes Donchenko will simply wreck Morono, as Morono has lost to late-career Niko Price and is past his prime.

Morono opened at +385, currently +525; Donchenko opened at -500, currently -725
"So Donchenko is just going to wreck him. Yeah. That's it. It's just going to go out there and wreck him."
LOSS vs Carlos Leal
KO R1 4:16 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 40 of 95 42% 41 of 96 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Carlos Leal 0 79 of 120 65% 81 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 40 of 95 42% 41 of 96 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Carlos Leal 0 79 of 120 65% 81 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 40 of 95 42% 32 of 82 4 of 9 4 of 4 35 of 87 5 of 8 0 of 0
Carlos Leal 79 of 120 65% 49 of 89 28 of 29 2 of 2 54 of 91 25 of 29 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 40 of 95 42% 32 of 82 4 of 9 4 of 4 35 of 87 5 of 8 0 of 0
Carlos Leal 79 of 120 65% 49 of 89 28 of 29 2 of 2 54 of 91 25 of 29 0 of 0
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Rodriguez 0 123 of 257 47% 126 of 260 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Alex Morono 0 74 of 257 28% 91 of 276 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Rodriguez 0 25 of 56 44% 25 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 31 of 81 38% 31 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Rodriguez 0 44 of 99 44% 44 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 23 of 91 25% 23 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Rodriguez 0 54 of 102 52% 57 of 105 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Alex Morono 0 20 of 85 23% 37 of 104 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Rodriguez 123 of 257 47% 44 of 153 56 of 80 23 of 24 117 of 251 6 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Morono 74 of 257 28% 58 of 228 9 of 21 7 of 8 74 of 256 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Rodriguez 25 of 56 44% 7 of 32 11 of 17 7 of 7 25 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 31 of 81 38% 20 of 67 5 of 8 6 of 6 31 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Daniel Rodriguez 44 of 99 44% 19 of 65 18 of 27 7 of 7 44 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 23 of 91 25% 20 of 83 2 of 7 1 of 1 23 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Daniel Rodriguez 54 of 102 52% 18 of 56 27 of 36 9 of 10 48 of 96 6 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Morono 20 of 85 23% 18 of 78 2 of 6 0 of 1 20 of 84 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Angelo makes a low-confidence pick for Daniel Rodriguez, citing Alex Morono's unreliability. He notes that Morono is the overall better fighter but can never be trusted. Angelo suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Morono instead, as he believes Morono can win at least one round. He does not bet the moneyline on either fighter.

Considering plus 3.5 bet on Alex Morono if plus money
"The wildly low confidence pick will be Daniel because you just cannot trust Alex morono."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by decision, but notes he needs to see the weigh-ins to confirm. He criticizes Morono's awful performance against Niko Price, where he was gassed after one minute, and notes Morono is on short notice again. He thinks Rodriguez is the better striker and less washed, though both are declining. If Morono looks bad on the scale, Brady would change his pick to a knockout. He expects a decision but is open to a finish if Morono looks terrible.

Rodriguez by decision; if Morono looks awful, change to knockout
"I'm picking D Rod regardless I think he's the better Striker quicker harder hitter and looks less less washed"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Rodriguez is a technical brawler who throws combinations and sets up shots, while Morono is a bad athlete who relies on game planning. He points out that Morono's jab is his best weapon but Rodriguez hits harder and is more durable. Connor expects Rodriguez to win a competitive fight.

Same odds commentary.
"Got to go with d rod agreed. But I like the fight a lot because oh, yeah the fight that morono will hang in he will keep it competitive."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Daniel notes that Rodriguez has declined significantly in speed and reflexes, as seen in the Kelvin Gastelum fight, but he still has a speed advantage over Morono, who has never been fast. He thinks Rodriguez's jab and straight punches will get there first against Morono's wild overhands. However, he is not confident and expects the fight to be closer than the odds suggest.

"Sure, pure pick I'll go with D Rod because historically he does have a big speed advantage... but there's a potential this fight plays out closer than the line indicates."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Rodriguez is more well-rounded and technical than Morono. Morono uses footwork but will struggle with Rodriguez's counters and straight shots down the pipe. Rodriguez will walk Morono down, land big strikes, and win on the scorecards.

"I think Rodriguez will do a good job in terms of walking Morono down landing his big strikes and winning this fight on the scorecards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez, criticizing Alex Morono for lacking talent, athleticism, and fast-twitch fibers. He praises Rodriguez's crisp, technical boxing and power, and expects a TKO in the second round. He dismisses Morono's grappling and overall game, calling him a 'flabby soft no Talent having hard worker'.

TKO second round
"I'm going to go with D Rod getting this one done way crisper boxing way more technical boxing way Slicker boxing way more power I'm going to say D Rod gets this one done by TKO second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez because he believes Rodriguez's power and durability will be too much for Morono. He notes that Morono often struggles against athletic fighters with power, and Rodriguez, despite being messy, has the tools to outwork and hurt Morono. Zane thinks Morono may have moments but will eventually get cracked.

Rodriguez opened at -190, now -201; Morono opened at +167, now +176.
"I'm still inclined to take rodriguez. It just feels like to me i've seen too many times where morono can get into a fight like this where you're like oh, yeah. No, you've got the right idea to hang with …"
LOSS vs Niko Price
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Niko Price 0 108 of 224 48% 138 of 259 5 of 5 100% 0 1 3:37
Alex Morono 0 96 of 210 45% 111 of 225 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Niko Price 0 16 of 51 31% 21 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:10
Alex Morono 0 34 of 72 47% 40 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
2 Niko Price 0 34 of 65 52% 50 of 83 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:04
Alex Morono 0 21 of 43 48% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
3 Niko Price 0 58 of 108 53% 67 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Alex Morono 0 41 of 95 43% 41 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Niko Price 108 of 224 48% 78 of 181 24 of 33 6 of 10 78 of 182 9 of 19 21 of 23
Alex Morono 96 of 210 45% 74 of 184 13 of 15 9 of 11 91 of 204 2 of 3 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Niko Price 16 of 51 31% 12 of 45 4 of 5 0 of 1 14 of 47 0 of 2 2 of 2
Alex Morono 34 of 72 47% 26 of 63 4 of 4 4 of 5 32 of 70 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Niko Price 34 of 65 52% 22 of 48 8 of 12 4 of 5 16 of 44 3 of 5 15 of 16
Alex Morono 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 1 of 2 1 of 1 20 of 42 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Niko Price 58 of 108 53% 44 of 88 12 of 16 2 of 4 48 of 91 6 of 12 4 of 5
Alex Morono 41 of 95 43% 29 of 81 8 of 9 4 of 5 39 of 92 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo picks Alex Morono, ignoring their first fight because it was a while ago and both have evolved. He believes Morono is the more technical striker and better grappler, and that his awkward striking will avoid Niko Price's power. He notes Price is always dangerous but thinks Morono's well-roundedness will prevail.

"I think morono is just the better fighter I think he's the more technical Striker he certainly is the better Grappler"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady thinks this fight ends inside the distance with someone getting knocked out. He leans toward Alex Morono getting the knockout, citing Niko Price's shot durability and recent KO loss to Robbie Lawler. He compares it to Morono's KO of Donald Cerrone. However, he notes Price has power and a 90% finish rate, so he will play both sides. He considers Price a live dog at 7,300.

fight doesn't go to decision (-200), Alex Morono wins by knockout
"I think it's probably is marona going out there and getting The Knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody leans toward Price, noting his volume and power. He acknowledges Price's durability is questionable but believes Morono's low volume and lack of power make Price live. Cody mentions Price's previous KO of Morono in 2017 and thinks Price can do it again. He warns that Morono may wait for a perfect shot, but Price's pressure could overwhelm him.

"I'm gonna go with the Niko Price direction too... Price has got sickening volume... Morono is not that guy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel recalls Morono's struggle against Court McGee and notes Price's power. He thinks it's a dog or pass situation and picks Price to win again.

"I'm gonna go Nico price here to beat him a second time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Morono dominated before getting caught. Price's chin is compromised after recent knockouts, and his confidence is low. Morono's stick-and-move style, power, and defensive jiu-jitsu should allow him to land big shots and finish Price, likely by knockout in the second round.

round 2 knockout
"I think we'll see morono capitalize on that... I think it's ultimately going to be a big shot on the chin that puts Nico price out here so give me Alex morono second round knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul leans toward Price, despite acknowledging Price's durability may be fading. He notes Price has sickening volume and power, and Morono's recent performance against Court McGee was poor. Paul thinks Price can outwork Morono and possibly land a KO. He mentions Price's power is the last thing to go and that Morono may be over the hill.

"Everything in my being I know Niko Price is kind of washed but it's like how does Alex Morono lose fights? He gets knocked out... I'm tempted."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, citing Niko Price's recent chin issues and inactivity. He notes that Price has lost his last two by TKO and looked scripted against Lawler. Morono has been more active and consistent, though he didn't look great in his last fight. He predicts Morono by decision, possibly TKO.

Morono by decision
"I'm going to go with Alex morono here um morono by decision TKO maybe but I'll say decision"
WIN vs Court McGee
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 60 of 160 37% 78 of 184 1 of 6 16% 0 0 3:20
Court McGee 0 38 of 141 26% 42 of 149 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 0 12 of 50 24% 12 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alex Morono 0 20 of 41 48% 36 of 61 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:12
Court McGee 0 9 of 28 32% 12 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Alex Morono 0 18 of 67 26% 20 of 71 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:08
Court McGee 0 17 of 63 26% 18 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 60 of 160 37% 14 of 73 29 of 55 17 of 32 52 of 148 0 of 1 8 of 11
Court McGee 38 of 141 26% 26 of 118 9 of 18 3 of 5 38 of 139 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 22 of 52 42% 3 of 16 13 of 25 6 of 11 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Court McGee 12 of 50 24% 8 of 42 2 of 6 2 of 2 12 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alex Morono 20 of 41 48% 7 of 21 8 of 12 5 of 8 12 of 30 0 of 1 8 of 10
Court McGee 9 of 28 32% 6 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alex Morono 18 of 67 26% 4 of 36 8 of 18 6 of 13 18 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 1
Court McGee 17 of 63 26% 12 of 51 4 of 9 1 of 3 17 of 61 0 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo picks Alex Morono because he believes Morono is a step ahead everywhere in this fight and could potentially finish an aging Court McGee. He notes that McGee relied on his work ethic and chin, but at 39, that chin is gone and hard work alone won't get wins. Morono is somewhat unreliable himself, but Angelo thinks he should be good here.

"Morono is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady picks Alex Morono to win by decision. He notes that Morono is six years younger, has better striking volume, and good jiu-jitsu. He believes Court McGee's durability is waning after recent knockouts, but doesn't expect a finish. He thinks Morono will be better wherever the fight goes.

win by decision
"I'm taking morono here I'm taking morono to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Cody agrees, noting McGee's recent knockout losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells. He thinks Morono's volume and speed will be too much, and that McGee's pressure game won't work against a more technical striker. Cody also mentions Morono's competitive fight with Joaquin Buckley has aged well.

"morona kills him... I think it's Justified Chuck on Alex morono"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Alex Morono to finish Court McGee in the first round. He compares McGee to past veterans Morono has stopped, like Josh Burkman and Tim Means, noting McGee is 40 and slow. Vreeland believes Morono's speed, power, and vicious intent will overwhelm McGee, and even if taken down, Morono can pop back up. He predicts a first-round knockout or submission.

first round finish
"I actually think Alex Morano gets a first round finish man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Morono is younger, more durable, and has better striking volume and power. McGee's chin is fading after recent knockouts. Morono's defensive grappling should be enough to keep the fight standing, where he can land damaging combinations. Expect a finish in the second or third round.

Morono by KO/TKO or submission (club and sub)
"I think he knocks out or clubs and Subs McGee at some point in this matchup early going should be a little bit grindy a little bit close but as this fight starts to wear on is and as morono …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Paul is confident in Morono, citing McGee's age, declining durability, and recent knockout losses. He notes McGee's wins are over one-dimensional grapplers, while Morono has better footwork, volume, and takedown defense. Paul thinks Morono will outwork McGee and possibly knock him out, as McGee's durability is gone.

by KO
"morona kills him... don't mind Alex morono knockout one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The host picks Morono based on output and commitment. He notes Morono looked amazing against Buckley and is better than Ventre. He criticizes McGee's recent losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells. He predicts neither will get a KO or dominate grappling, so Morono's higher volume will win a decision.

"I'm going to go Alex morono more committed to the game more volume on the feet and I doubt either of them get a KO over over each other"
LOSS vs Joaquin Buckley
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joaquin Buckley 0 40 of 141 28% 54 of 161 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Alex Morono 0 68 of 176 38% 77 of 186 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joaquin Buckley 0 12 of 33 36% 12 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 10 of 41 24% 14 of 45 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:35
2 Joaquin Buckley 0 15 of 52 28% 25 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 18 of 45 40% 18 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
3 Joaquin Buckley 0 13 of 56 23% 17 of 64 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Alex Morono 0 40 of 90 44% 45 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joaquin Buckley 40 of 141 28% 29 of 122 10 of 17 1 of 2 37 of 133 3 of 8 0 of 0
Alex Morono 68 of 176 38% 41 of 134 24 of 36 3 of 6 55 of 141 2 of 9 11 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joaquin Buckley 12 of 33 36% 9 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 31 0 of 2 0 of 0
Alex Morono 10 of 41 24% 6 of 32 2 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Joaquin Buckley 15 of 52 28% 11 of 44 3 of 6 1 of 2 15 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alex Morono 18 of 45 40% 10 of 31 8 of 13 0 of 1 17 of 41 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Joaquin Buckley 13 of 56 23% 9 of 49 4 of 7 0 of 0 10 of 51 3 of 5 0 of 0
Alex Morono 40 of 90 44% 25 of 71 14 of 17 1 of 2 28 of 59 1 of 5 11 of 26
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joaquin Buckley vs. Alex Morono
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-175), Morono (+145)

Round 1
From one action fight to the next we go, as exciting welterweights Morono (23-8, 1 NC; 12-5, 1 NC UFC) and Buckley (16-6, 6-4 UFC) toe the line in search of another highlight-reel finish. Referee Kerry Hatley will have his hands full, as the match could take place anywhere and end in the blink of an eye. Buckley dances his way to the cage with Beyonce playing, while Morono goes hard with Prong. There is no glove touch to start the fight, and instead Buckley charges like a bull, throwing fists. He ends up grabbing hold of Morono’s legs. Morono pulls his limbs out and returns to striking range, and the welterweights calm down and proceed to measure one another with single blows. Buckley lands a body kick, and Morono splits the guard with a right hand. Morono ducks away from a haymaker and counters with a right hand. Morono catches his man with a right, and Buckley loads up with a right in response to put his man on rubber legs. Morono shakes out the cobwebs and bounces off the fencing, and he chambers a right hand that just misses the forehead. Buckley springs into action with an uppercut, and he spins with a back kick that ends up getting crowded by the Texan. Morono drives a straight right hand after following a jab, and the power punch in response from Buckley grazes off the side of his noggin. Buckley blitzes with a few punches, and Morono is able to parry or avoid them all. A second surge from “New Mansa” also misses the mark each and every time, but Morono does not make him pay for these reckless attacks and instead allows Buckley to hit air. Buckley leaps at him with a knee extended, but Morono is nowhere to be found. Morono hand-fights until putting a right hand on the jaw, and Buckley races after him and tags him right back. Buckley attempts to spin, and Morono’s safe distance disallows it from succeeding. From out of nowhere, Buckley runs at his foe and lifts him off the ground with a double. Morono hits his back and defends with an armbar, and Buckley wriggles his arm out and backs off to escape the guard before upkicks or other submission attempts find him. Buckley lifts him up again, and Morono latches onto a guillotine choke. Buckley ends up slamming Morono down hard to break up the submission, and the energetic round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 2
At the beginning of the round, Buckley is not quite as wild as before, instead lining up a head kick. The Texan counters him with a picture-perfect right hand that sends Buckley flying, and Buckley scrambles back to his feet. Morono allows him to reset so that he can further trade with his opponent, and Buckley aims a few strikes to the body. Morono looks for a high kick that is feet away from the target, and he leans back from a pair of looping hooks that whiz at him. Buckley lumbers forward and suddenly unloads a few huge hooks, and Morono is out of range in time. Morono aims a front kick down the middle when he expected Buckley will come at him, but Buckley does not bite. Buckley kicks the body, and Morono responds with a kick that slaps him in the posterior and makes Buckley grin. Buckley explodes into a combination that is largely blocked and defended by the Fortis MMA fighter, and when he backs off to measure his man, he drills Morono in the ribs with a stern kick. Morono flicks out a number of jabs, and he leans and ducks a punch so that he can catch Buckley with a right hook on the side of the head. Morono measures and releases a head kick that pounds into the guard, and Buckley kicks him in the body again. Buckley tries to corner his foe with a flurry of punches, but Morono will not have it and backs Buckley off. Buckley whiffs on a kick but lands with a body shot, and he ducks a spinning back fist just in the nick of time. Morono strings a few punches together, gets clipped, and responds with a right. Buckley continues to target the body and head indiscriminately in attacks, keeping Morono guessing and not allowing a pattern to emerge. Buckley digs a left to the body and aims a right over the top, but it is a charging left hook when Morono dodges him that catches Morono. Buckley rushes at his man to jam him up against the fencing, and they trade knees before separating at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 3
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Buckley leads the dance with a series of punches. Commentator Daniel Cormier starts barking when saying that the fighters “need to bring the dog out,” and Buckley lashes out with power strikes that finally find their home cleanly. A left hand from “New Mansa” busts Morono’s lip, and blood immediately trickles out of his mouth. Morono aims counters, but Buckley appears slightly fresher and able to beat his foe to the punch. Buckley runs forward with a looping left hook, and he slams his right fist into the body. Morono backs him off with a front kick, and the kick rams into his cup. Buckley waves off Hatley and does not want to allow Morono to recover. Morono eats several clean shots, and he is taking damage and trying to back off to survive. Buckley lays into him with a number of unanswered body shots and a few to the head, and Morono hits nothing but air when he replies with a right hand. Buckley spins with a wheel kick, and Morono tackles him to the ground. Buckley bursts back to his feet after only a few seconds on his back, and he smashes Morono in the face with a left hand. Buckley hammers his foe with a number of punches to the body and head, and Morono is leaning against the fence and struggling to stay on his feet. Morono shoots desperately for a takedown, and it is a feeble attempt as he falls to his knees. Buckley lets him stand up so that he can punch the Texan in the face again and again. Morono takes a deep breath and starts firing back, but it is a takedown shot that he goes for a full-throated effort. Buckley stonewalls him and pushes Morono to his back, and he lowers himself into the guard to drop down some heavy ground-and-pound. Morono maintains a high guard, and Buckley opens up with several right hands until Morono adjusts. Buckley keeps tightly pressed to “The Great White” to not allow Morono to latch on with a submission, and he sneaks in some ground strikes when he finds openings. Buckley stands up, and lets Morono up with 15 seconds to spare. Morono meanders forward, and he throws everything into one final right hand that ultimately misses and sends him toppling to the mat. Morono rolls to his back, and Buckley returns to the guard to do a little more damage before the final horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Buckley (30-26 Buckley)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (30-27 Buckley)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (30-27 Buckley)

The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Alex Morono via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley because he is the much better striker with more power, speed, and technique. He notes that Alex Morono is well-rounded and underrated but has low takedown accuracy (20%), so he cannot trust him to wrestle. Buckley has decent takedown defense and has faced good wrestlers. Angelo plans to avoid betting on this fight.

"waim Buckley is going to be the pick he's the more dangerous Striker decent takedown defense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley, emphasizing Buckley's significant power advantage over Alex Morono. He notes that Morono is more of a decision fighter and has been hurt more often recently. He expects the fight to stay standing and that Buckley will eventually land a big shot, predicting a third-round knockout.

third round knockout for Joaquin Buckley
"give me Buckley to win this fight I'll take Buckley to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Cody picks Buckley, citing his speed, athleticism, and ability to land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Morono has taken a lot of damage recently and may be hesitant. Buckley's takedowns and movement should allow him to win rounds, though Cody acknowledges Buckley's history of getting knocked out.

"I am gonna go yokine Buckley... I recognize this as live Underdog potential... but ultimately I do think that Buckley's... rounding out his game"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his superior speed, athleticism, and hand speed. He notes that both fighters have suspect chins but Buckley is the better athlete and is dropping to his proper weight class at 170. He expects Buckley's speed and explosiveness to be the difference, though he acknowledges a chance someone gets knocked out.

"I'm going with Buckley in this fight and I do think there's a chance someone hits the deck here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Joaquin Buckley

Lucrative James picks Buckley by knockout in round two or three. He thinks Morono will be winning early but Buckley will figure out his awkwardness and land heavy shots. He compares it to the Ponzinibbio fight where Morono kept getting caught. He likes over 1.5 rounds as well.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think Buckley's gonna get around two or three knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Buckley has the power and agility to catch Morono in pocket exchanges. Morono is durable but leaves openings and has been knocked out before. Buckley should land a big shot and finish him. Morono may win minutes but Buckley's power is the difference. Expect a knockout victory for Buckley.

knockout
"I think Buckley catches him and I think Buckley puts him away give me Buckley by knock out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Paul picks Buckley, expecting a close fight that goes to decision with Buckley landing the more damaging strikes. He notes that both fighters are similar in size, which favors Buckley. Paul mentions that Morono has a questionable chin but hasn't been knocked out recently, so he leans toward Buckley by decision.

Buckley by decision, Over 36.5 significant strikes for Buckley
"Buckley's a pick for me as well... if I was chasing a prop it would probably be Buckley by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley over Alex Morono, predicting a TKO in the second round. He believes Buckley's intention to take Morono's head off will be the difference, as Morono tries to outpoint to a decision. He notes Morono was doing well against Ponzinibbio until he got knocked out in round three, and that Morono's wins haven't aged well. He also mentions Buckley's size and reach advantage.

TKO second round
"I'm going Joaquin Buckley over Alex morono"
WIN vs Tim Means
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:09 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 40 of 87 45% 45 of 92 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:46
Tim Means 0 33 of 92 35% 42 of 102 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 32 of 64 50% 34 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Tim Means 0 18 of 58 31% 27 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alex Morono 0 8 of 23 34% 11 of 26 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:19
Tim Means 0 15 of 34 44% 15 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 40 of 87 45% 16 of 52 18 of 29 6 of 6 30 of 74 10 of 13 0 of 0
Tim Means 33 of 92 35% 29 of 86 4 of 6 0 of 0 31 of 86 2 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 32 of 64 50% 10 of 32 16 of 26 6 of 6 23 of 52 9 of 12 0 of 0
Tim Means 18 of 58 31% 16 of 55 2 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 52 2 of 6 0 of 0
2 Alex Morono 8 of 23 34% 6 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tim Means 15 of 34 44% 13 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo leans on Morono, noting his clean striking and recent improvements. He says Tim Means is gritty and well-rounded, and that unless you're ranked or dangerous, you shouldn't be a 2-to-1 favorite over Means. He calls it a close fight and is not betting on it.

"I am gonna lean on him for the pick here but holy crap is this a close fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady is a huge Tim Means fan but has serious concerns about Means' durability at 39 years old and after 48 fights. He notes Means has been getting dropped and finished recently, and questions his focus as he seems more into coaching. Brady compares this to the Morono vs. Cerrone fight, predicting Morono will land a big shot, swarm, and finish Means. He picks Morono by second-round knockout and suggests Means may retire after this fight.

second round knockout
"give me Alex marona to win this fight I'll say he wins this fight by second round knockout I think he knocks out Tim Means on Saturday"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Cody picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and 50 pro fights, leading to durability and speed decline. He notes Means' tendency to gas after the first round and Morono's volume and pressure. He expects Morono to chew away at Means and possibly get a late stoppage. He acknowledges Means' skill but believes his best days are behind him.

"I'm just doubting it on a personal level so we'll take Alex morono to get the job done which pains me because we've been doing this show for like nine years and we've been covering Tim Means fights pretty much …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Connor picks Morono, agreeing that Means is past his prime and gets hurt too often. He highlights Morono's lateral movement, jab, and counter-punching, which will frustrate Means. He thinks Means will have moments but ultimately lose a decision or get dropped.

"I got to take Morono, even if it's by decision, I think it's much more likely that Tim Means gets dropped in a couple of rounds."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Daniel Levi picks Alex Morono but with low confidence, citing Tim Means' age (39-40) and declining durability as the deciding factor. He notes that statistically, Means is competitive and would be a live dog if younger, but Means' recent fights show he can't take damage like before. Levi expects a competitive fight but favors Morono's unorthodox style and durability. He passes on betting due to the price, calling it a dog-or-pass situation.

pass on betting at -225; fight could go to decision or be a war
"I'm gonna pick Alex Morano but it's not a confident pick and it's not something I'm interested it's a dog or pass situation"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Morono's pressure, pace, and volume will be too much for Means, who has diminished durability at 39. Means is the better technical striker but can't take shots like before. Morono will march forward, land big shots, and likely find a knockout or submission. Means may have moments but Morono's relentless style will overwhelm him.

inside the distance, TKO
"gimme Alex morono inside the distance I'm gonna call it via TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Morono. He notes that Means gasses after 6-7 minutes and lacks a grappling game. He mentions that Morono might mix in takedowns and fish for a submission, and that the market has moved on that prop. He sees Morono as the rightful favorite.

submission prop (market moved from 9-1 to 6.5-1)
"my biggest struggle yeah I just I just can't get behind the dirty bird at this point he seems to really absolutely guess about six seven minutes into every single fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, noting that he had a full training camp and has better hand speed and cardio. He believes Tim Means has slowed down and will struggle with Morono's pace. He predicts a dominant decision or a late finish.

dominant decision win 30-27
"Alex morono I think is going to win this matchup... I see him getting finished on the feet maybe as the fight goes on or maybe there'll be a dominant decision win for morono here 30 27."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Zane picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and tendency to get hurt now. He notes that Means' pressure-counter style leaves him vulnerable, and Morono's awkward but effective striking, good footwork, and jab will cause problems. He thinks Morono will land a big counter and potentially drop Means, though a decision is likely.

"I got to take Morono, even if it's by decision, I think it's much more likely that Tim Means gets dropped in a couple of rounds."
KO (punches) R3 2:29 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Santiago Ponzinibbio 1 66 of 155 42% 66 of 155 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Alex Morono 1 38 of 131 29% 38 of 131 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 22 of 42 52% 22 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 1 17 of 55 30% 17 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 13 of 50 26% 13 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Santiago Ponzinibbio 1 18 of 40 45% 18 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Alex Morono 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Santiago Ponzinibbio 66 of 155 42% 31 of 99 26 of 47 9 of 9 65 of 153 0 of 0 1 of 2
Alex Morono 38 of 131 29% 34 of 120 4 of 11 0 of 0 34 of 124 0 of 0 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 22 of 42 52% 6 of 19 11 of 18 5 of 5 22 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 17 of 55 30% 14 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 48 0 of 0 4 of 7
2 Santiago Ponzinibbio 26 of 73 35% 12 of 48 12 of 23 2 of 2 26 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 13 of 50 26% 12 of 45 1 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Santiago Ponzinibbio 18 of 40 45% 13 of 32 3 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 38 0 of 0 1 of 2
Alex Morono 8 of 26 30% 8 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Angelo picks Ponzinibbio, noting his clean striking, range control, and volume. He warns that Ponzinibbio must avoid Lawler's power and treat him with respect. He believes Ponzinibbio can get a finish if he maintains a high pace like Barbarena did. He acknowledges Lawler is dangerous even at 40 but thinks Ponzinibbio's technical approach will win.

"ponzanibio is the pick but avoid the power do what you do stay technical use the range pour on some volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, but is not confident in the price. He notes Ponzinibbio has lost a step but still competes at a high level, while Morono is a short-notice replacement. He expects a close fight that goes to decision, with Ponzinibbio outpointing Morono.

Ponzinibbio wins by decision; fight goes to decision
"I'm gonna take pawns and maybe to win I'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Cody picks Ponzinibbio, citing his volume striking, footwork, and ability to absorb damage. He notes Ponzinibbio has been competitive against high-level guys despite recent split decision losses. He thinks Morono is a 50/50 fighter who fights to his opponent's level and is taking the fight on short notice. He expects Ponzinibbio to win by decision.

Ponzinibbio by decision
"I would have to say that pausing Ebu just goes there and works morono over... I do have him winning by decision more specifically"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Connor picks Ponzinibbio, citing his full camp, powerful straight punches, and low kicks. He notes Morono is a short-notice replacement and lacks the athleticism to handle Ponzinibbio's sustained offense. Connor believes Ponzinibbio's persistence and power will overwhelm Morono, who tends to put himself in danger.

Odds: Morono opened +220, dropped to +151; Ponzinibbio opened -260, now -182.
"I still think I'm going to have to take him for having a full camp. Ponsinibio style doesn't really change ever from opponent to opponent."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio but with low confidence due to Ponzinibbio's diminished form after a health scare. He praises Ponzinibbio's prime style: stalking footwork, calf kicks, and a beautiful straight right. However, he notes Ponzinibbio is a step slower now and has gone 1-3 in his last four. Levi acknowledges Morono's toughness and awkward brawling style, but believes Ponzinibbio's cleaner striking and experience should carry him. He warns not to be surprised if Morono wins.

"I still think he gets it done but you just can't act surprised if he doesn't"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Lock likes Ponzinibbio to win, believing he will torch Morono from the jump and eventually knock him out. He sees Morono as a plodding forward fighter whose durability holds up some nights but not against Ponzinibbio's striking. From a long-term perspective, he thinks Ponzinibbio will get a decent bump but will lose against higher-level competition. He recommends a pump and dump on Ponzinibbio this weekend.

pump and dump on PredictionStrike
"pumping up this weekend on panzanibio I'd say I don't mind it I don't mind that one bit"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ponzinibbio. He notes that Ponzinibbio has been preparing for this fight for a long time while Morono is on short notice. He thinks the minus 180 line is fair and is surprised it's not higher given the circumstances. He sees Ponzinibbio's experience and preparation as key factors.

"I'm with you I'm gonna take uh ponzanibio as well minus 180 seems relatively Fair too to be perfectly honest so I'm a little bit surprised by that number particularly with Alex morono coming in on short notice"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio over Robbie Lawler (note: transcript says Lawler but fight is Ponzinibbio vs Morono; likely error). He believes Ponzinibbio will jab Lawler's face off and win by TKO in round two or three. He criticizes Lawler's age and recent performances, and thinks Ponzinibbio's range striking will be too much.

"I'm gonna be going with Santiago ponz nibio over Robbie Lawler"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Zane picks Ponzinibbio, emphasizing his ability to rally back in fights and his power. He notes Morono's grit but says Ponzinibbio's sustained offense and punching power are a level above Morono's recent opponents. Zane is concerned about Morono's short notice but trusts Ponzinibbio's experience.

Odds: Morono opened +220, now +151; Ponzinibbio opened -260, now -182.
"I'm going to pick Santiago Ponson to be out here. I just think that despite even beyond the short notice Ponson to be Oh getting put away early by Legion, the longest concern, but the way he's rallied back against …"
Tim Means - Fight History
LOSS vs Court McGee
Submission (neck crank) R1 3:19 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Court McGee 0 14 of 24 58% 19 of 35 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:58
Tim Means 0 5 of 13 38% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Court McGee 0 14 of 24 58% 19 of 35 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:58
Tim Means 0 5 of 13 38% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Court McGee 14 of 24 58% 9 of 18 3 of 4 2 of 2 14 of 22 0 of 2 0 of 0
Tim Means 5 of 13 38% 2 of 9 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Court McGee 14 of 24 58% 9 of 18 3 of 4 2 of 2 14 of 22 0 of 2 0 of 0
Tim Means 5 of 13 38% 2 of 9 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Court McGee

Angelo picks Court McGee, believing the fight is 50-50 and McGee's wrestling and pressure can be the difference. He notes Tim Means is a 2-to-1 favorite, which he considers unjustified given both fighters are old and worn. He placed a small bet on McGee at +195.

Bet 0.25 units on Court McGee at +195
"I'm leaning court court is going to be the pick... I threw a quarter of a unit on him at plus 195"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tim Means

Big Brady is hesitant on this fight, noting that both fighters are veterans and he doesn't trust either. He leans towards Tim Means because he believes Means still has a little left in the tank, while Court McGee hasn't had a finish since 2010 and has been losing to lower-level competition. He expects McGee to attempt takedowns but thinks Means will do better work on the feet and win a decision.

"I just feel like Tim Means is has just a little little bit left in the gas tank at at this at this point of time so I think it's going to be close it's probably going to be greasy …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Cody picks McGee, citing his home-field advantage in Utah and cardio. He notes Means' tendency to gas and get submitted. He believes McGee can outlast Means and possibly win by submission.

Court McGee by submission
"it's me and mgee as well brother"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tim Means

Connor picks Means based on sentiment, acknowledging it's not a sound analysis. He notes that Means is old and has lost speed, but Court McGee is not a powerful striker and Means' craft might be enough. He wants Means to go out on a win.

"I'm going to pick Tim Means simply because I adore him. And I would like this to be his last fight. And I would like him to go out on a win."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tim Means

Daniel Vreeland picks Tim Means, citing his slick striking and improved wrestling. He notes that Court McGee has slowed down drastically and was nearly beaten by Alex Morono. Vreeland expects Means to knock out McGee, though he is hesitant to lay heavy chalk on a fighter who has lost four of his last five.

"I like the Slicker striking style of Tim me his wrestling's gotten a lot better I think he's got a good chance to come out here and knock out Court McGee"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tim Means

The host believes Tim Means is the better overall fighter and will utilize his clinch with knees and elbows, as well as distance striking with kicks and long-range weapons, to pick apart Court McGee. He expects Means to win on the scorecards, noting that McGee lacks significant knockout power.

"I do think that means is the better overall fighter in this spot and I don't think he'll have too much knockout power to worry about on the McGee side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his durability and wrestling. He thinks McGee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. He sees value at plus 170 and expects a close decision or late finish.

"McGee for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Court McGee

The MMA Guru picks Court McGee over Tim Means, citing McGee's training at altitude in Utah as a key advantage. He notes both fighters are past their prime but believes McGee is less finishable and will employ a boring cage control game, failing takedowns but winning the pressure game. He predicts a decision victory for McGee, as neither fighter is likely to finish early.

"I'm going to say Court McGee wins this one by decision and I'm pretty confident in it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tim Means

Zane also picks Means for sentimental reasons, calling himself a long-time Dirty Bird fan. He acknowledges that Means has lost a step but notes that McGee is not a dangerous striker and Means' experience might carry him. He admits it's not a pick based on sound analysis.

"I'm going to rise with Tim Means just for us. Long time Dirty Bird fans."
LOSS vs Uroš Medić
TKO (punches) R1 2:09 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Uroš Medić 0 7 of 17 41% 10 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:18
Tim Means 1 7 of 12 58% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Uroš Medić 0 7 of 17 41% 10 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:18
Tim Means 1 7 of 12 58% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Uroš Medić 7 of 17 41% 1 of 10 5 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 14 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tim Means 7 of 12 58% 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 9 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Uroš Medić 7 of 17 41% 1 of 10 5 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 14 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tim Means 7 of 12 58% 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 9 1 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Angelo is very confident Uroš Medić wins, citing his youth, speed, power, and superior striking. He notes Medić has a 100% finish rate and killer instinct. The only concern is Medić's 46% takedown defense, but he thinks Tim Means at 40 years old may not be able to exploit it. He expects a finish and suggests waiting for prop bets, hoping for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.

Under 2.5 rounds (if available)
"uros medic should win this fight I very confident in him to win this fight I don't know if I trust these odds just yet let's wait for the prop bets"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Cody picks Means as a dog, citing his experience and cleaner striking. He notes Means' body work and straight left, and believes he can hurt Medić, who has been rocked before. However, he admits Means' age and cardio are concerns, making it a doger pass.

"it's pretty clear dogger pass here means could beat him on volume too"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Daniel thinks Means is durable but at 40 may not dig deep when hurt. He notes Medić is younger, more dangerous, and showed heart in the Semelsberger fight. He leans Medić but won't bet at -310, though he might take Means as a dog if the price gets better.

"I'm gonna go medic but I mean I'd love to see the Dirty Bird win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Uroš Medić

Medić is younger, faster, and more powerful. Means is 40 with a lot of mileage. Medić's Muay Thai and power should overwhelm Means as the fight goes on. I expect Medić to finish Means, possibly by knockout. The inside distance prop is a good option.

Medić wins inside distance
"I think that medic as he continues to land and starts landing on means uh it's going to cause means to you know I think it will cause him to break and I think that will eventually see means actually …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Paul also picks Means, highlighting his experience against better competition and his opportunistic submission game. He thinks Means' grappling advantage could be key, as Medić has poor takedown defense. He calls it a clear doger pass.

"it's pretty clear dogger pass here means could beat him on volume too"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

The MMA Guru picks Uroš Medić, calling him more explosive and dangerous on the feet. He criticizes Tim Means as hitting a veteran decline and notes his loss to Matt Semelsberger. He highlights Medić's good cardio and nasty body kicks, predicting a TKO via liver shot. He also mentions Medić's near-finish of Orolbai and his ability to handle Means' grinding style.

TKO via liver shot
"I'm going to go uros medic I think he's really dangerous"
WIN vs André Fialho
TKO (punches) R3 1:15 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tim Means 2 104 of 143 72% 134 of 178 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:51
André Fialho 0 51 of 103 49% 56 of 110 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tim Means 1 39 of 53 73% 44 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:22
André Fialho 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tim Means 0 48 of 69 69% 73 of 99 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:29
André Fialho 0 29 of 50 58% 32 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
3 Tim Means 1 17 of 21 80% 17 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
André Fialho 0 3 of 6 50% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tim Means 104 of 143 72% 66 of 103 33 of 35 5 of 5 56 of 87 30 of 35 18 of 21
André Fialho 51 of 103 49% 32 of 75 15 of 23 4 of 5 35 of 86 16 of 17 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tim Means 39 of 53 73% 21 of 34 16 of 17 2 of 2 25 of 36 8 of 10 6 of 7
André Fialho 19 of 47 40% 8 of 31 8 of 13 3 of 3 13 of 41 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Tim Means 48 of 69 69% 33 of 53 14 of 15 1 of 1 22 of 39 14 of 16 12 of 14
André Fialho 29 of 50 58% 24 of 44 4 of 4 1 of 2 19 of 39 10 of 11 0 of 0
3 Tim Means 17 of 21 80% 12 of 16 3 of 3 2 of 2 9 of 12 8 of 9 0 of 0
André Fialho 3 of 6 50% 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tim Means

Angelo thinks Means can ugly up the fight and squeak out a close decision. He notes Means is tough, busy, and has fought a who's who of welterweights. However, he is concerned about Means' age (39) and Fialho's power. He has very low confidence.

"I do think Tim Means can squeak this out super low confidence"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
André Fialho

Big Brady picks André Fialho to win by first-round knockout, citing his power advantage and youth (10 years younger). He notes both fighters have poor durability, but Fialho hits like a truck. He worries about Fialho's horrible cardio and thinks he must finish early. He says nobody should be confident on either side.

first round knockout
"I'm gonna say Fiola gets the first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Cody picks Tim Means as a live underdog, citing Fialho's poor chin and hesitancy against strikers. He notes Means's crafty striking, wrestling, and experience. He believes Means can outwork Fialho, who has been knocked out by lesser competition.

"I'm gonna take Tim Means for the underdog selection... plus 155 that was available to me."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
André Fialho

Daniel hesitantly picks Fialho based on youth and power, but admits he doesn't trust either fighter. He notes Means is 39 and doesn't react well to shots anymore, while Fialho has three straight KO losses. He thinks Means is the better technical fighter but age and chin are concerns. He expects a violent fight and leans Fialho by KO, but with low confidence.

"probably a FIU win here and then we look to fed him his next fight against like a young gun"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
André Fialho

Lucrative James feels Fialho will knock out Means, citing Means' declining durability and reaction times. He likes Fialho's left hook and calm striking style. He considers betting Fialho inside the distance but notes the line is -135, which he doesn't love. He also mentions Means decision as a possible hedge.

Fialho inside the distance -135 considered; Means decision considered
"I kind of feel like Fialho's gonna knock him out."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
André Fialho

The host picks Fialho to win by first-round knockout, despite normally fading him. He notes Fialho's power advantage and Means' questionable durability and age (39). He expects Fialho to land a barrage early and finish Means. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as a safer play, expecting either an early Fialho KO or a late Means finish.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I think that fialio gets that first round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Paul picks Tim Means simply because he refuses to lay chalk on Fialho. He notes both fighters are quick starters and expects a finish. He has no strong confidence but likes the plus money.

"I suppose I'm leaning towards Tim The Dirty Bird means strictly because I could see this fight going both ways and he's got a plus 140 price tag next to him literally nothing more than that."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tim Means

The MMA Guru initially leans toward André Fialho but changes his pick to Tim Means after a lengthy internal debate. He worries about Means' age and declining athleticism but has a 'sneaky feeling' Means will catch Fialho. He notes Fialho's tendency to get knocked out and Means' effective one-two combinations. He predicts a TKO in round one, with Means backing Fialho against the cage and landing a one-two. He admits he is hesitant and almost picked Fialho.

TKO round one
"I'm going Tim minz I'm going Tim Means getting a TKO over Andre fiallo he was winning against morono I I knew this would happen dude I told myself not to pick him but here I am..."
LOSS vs Alex Morono
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:09 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 40 of 87 45% 45 of 92 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:46
Tim Means 0 33 of 92 35% 42 of 102 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 32 of 64 50% 34 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Tim Means 0 18 of 58 31% 27 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alex Morono 0 8 of 23 34% 11 of 26 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:19
Tim Means 0 15 of 34 44% 15 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 40 of 87 45% 16 of 52 18 of 29 6 of 6 30 of 74 10 of 13 0 of 0
Tim Means 33 of 92 35% 29 of 86 4 of 6 0 of 0 31 of 86 2 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 32 of 64 50% 10 of 32 16 of 26 6 of 6 23 of 52 9 of 12 0 of 0
Tim Means 18 of 58 31% 16 of 55 2 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 52 2 of 6 0 of 0
2 Alex Morono 8 of 23 34% 6 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tim Means 15 of 34 44% 13 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo leans on Morono, noting his clean striking and recent improvements. He says Tim Means is gritty and well-rounded, and that unless you're ranked or dangerous, you shouldn't be a 2-to-1 favorite over Means. He calls it a close fight and is not betting on it.

"I am gonna lean on him for the pick here but holy crap is this a close fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady is a huge Tim Means fan but has serious concerns about Means' durability at 39 years old and after 48 fights. He notes Means has been getting dropped and finished recently, and questions his focus as he seems more into coaching. Brady compares this to the Morono vs. Cerrone fight, predicting Morono will land a big shot, swarm, and finish Means. He picks Morono by second-round knockout and suggests Means may retire after this fight.

second round knockout
"give me Alex marona to win this fight I'll say he wins this fight by second round knockout I think he knocks out Tim Means on Saturday"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Cody picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and 50 pro fights, leading to durability and speed decline. He notes Means' tendency to gas after the first round and Morono's volume and pressure. He expects Morono to chew away at Means and possibly get a late stoppage. He acknowledges Means' skill but believes his best days are behind him.

"I'm just doubting it on a personal level so we'll take Alex morono to get the job done which pains me because we've been doing this show for like nine years and we've been covering Tim Means fights pretty much …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Connor picks Morono, agreeing that Means is past his prime and gets hurt too often. He highlights Morono's lateral movement, jab, and counter-punching, which will frustrate Means. He thinks Means will have moments but ultimately lose a decision or get dropped.

"I got to take Morono, even if it's by decision, I think it's much more likely that Tim Means gets dropped in a couple of rounds."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Daniel Levi picks Alex Morono but with low confidence, citing Tim Means' age (39-40) and declining durability as the deciding factor. He notes that statistically, Means is competitive and would be a live dog if younger, but Means' recent fights show he can't take damage like before. Levi expects a competitive fight but favors Morono's unorthodox style and durability. He passes on betting due to the price, calling it a dog-or-pass situation.

pass on betting at -225; fight could go to decision or be a war
"I'm gonna pick Alex Morano but it's not a confident pick and it's not something I'm interested it's a dog or pass situation"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Morono's pressure, pace, and volume will be too much for Means, who has diminished durability at 39. Means is the better technical striker but can't take shots like before. Morono will march forward, land big shots, and likely find a knockout or submission. Means may have moments but Morono's relentless style will overwhelm him.

inside the distance, TKO
"gimme Alex morono inside the distance I'm gonna call it via TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Morono. He notes that Means gasses after 6-7 minutes and lacks a grappling game. He mentions that Morono might mix in takedowns and fish for a submission, and that the market has moved on that prop. He sees Morono as the rightful favorite.

submission prop (market moved from 9-1 to 6.5-1)
"my biggest struggle yeah I just I just can't get behind the dirty bird at this point he seems to really absolutely guess about six seven minutes into every single fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, noting that he had a full training camp and has better hand speed and cardio. He believes Tim Means has slowed down and will struggle with Morono's pace. He predicts a dominant decision or a late finish.

dominant decision win 30-27
"Alex morono I think is going to win this matchup... I see him getting finished on the feet maybe as the fight goes on or maybe there'll be a dominant decision win for morono here 30 27."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Zane picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and tendency to get hurt now. He notes that Means' pressure-counter style leaves him vulnerable, and Morono's awkward but effective striking, good footwork, and jab will cause problems. He thinks Morono will land a big counter and potentially drop Means, though a decision is likely.

"I got to take Morono, even if it's by decision, I think it's much more likely that Tim Means gets dropped in a couple of rounds."
LOSS vs Max Griffin
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Griffin 0 47 of 115 40% 143 of 215 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:27
Tim Means 1 42 of 78 53% 56 of 96 3 of 6 50% 0 0 5:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Griffin 0 17 of 49 34% 21 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Tim Means 1 25 of 42 59% 26 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:54
2 Max Griffin 0 20 of 53 37% 48 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tim Means 0 13 of 29 44% 14 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
3 Max Griffin 0 10 of 13 76% 74 of 79 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:01
Tim Means 0 4 of 7 57% 16 of 22 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Griffin 47 of 115 40% 18 of 64 18 of 36 11 of 15 37 of 103 7 of 9 3 of 3
Tim Means 42 of 78 53% 25 of 52 9 of 15 8 of 11 35 of 66 1 of 1 6 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Griffin 17 of 49 34% 8 of 27 3 of 14 6 of 8 13 of 43 4 of 6 0 of 0
Tim Means 25 of 42 59% 16 of 29 7 of 9 2 of 4 20 of 34 1 of 1 4 of 7
2 Max Griffin 20 of 53 37% 7 of 32 8 of 15 5 of 6 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tim Means 13 of 29 44% 5 of 16 2 of 6 6 of 7 13 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Max Griffin 10 of 13 76% 3 of 5 7 of 7 0 of 1 4 of 7 3 of 3 3 of 3
Tim Means 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Max Griffin vs. Tim Means

Round 1
An interesting, all-action welterweight contest will serve as the co-main attraction of this Fight Night event, with a storied veteran battling it out against a man fighting his way back to contention. At 38 years of age, Means (32-13-1, 1 NC; 14-10, 1 NC UFC) is still cruising in the division, with three wins in his last four including a few stellar performances over Nicolas Dalby and Mike Perry in recent memory. While his adversary Griffin (18-9, 6-7 UFC) started off going just 3-6 in the Octagon, he has turned things around as of late with a similar 3-1 stretch as Means. Drawing the assignment is referee Dan Miragliotta, and the 170-pounders do not touch gloves as they want to immediately get down to business. They start trading almost immediately, with rangy punches and chopping low kicks to match the other. Griffin fires a left hand over the top, and a right hand knocks Means down to his backside. Griffin leaps on top to finish the job, and Means latches on to an armbar off his back to keep his man honest and survive the onslaught. As Means continues to work, he turns to his side, grabs hold of a leg and drives Griffin back to the wall. Means separates, and he appears to have his bearings back as he measures a high kick from his lead leg and a body kick from his rear. Means just misses with a knee as Griffin bears down on him with a combination, and he works the calf to slow down the advancing Griffin. “The Dirty Bird” whiffs on a one-two into a head kick, but the calf kick that follows does connect. Griffin throws fire with a right hand to stun Means for a moment, as he chains it into a power punch that Means tanks seemingly without issue. Means continues to do work on the upper calf, making investments as he also strikes the body. Griffin snaps out a jab that gest Means’ attention, and a right hand that follows it stings Means. Means gives chase with a high kick, and Griffin walks through a pair of open-handed slaps so that he can shoot in for a double. Means keeps his balance as they remain clinched until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Means strikes first in the form of a slapping low kick. The legs from Means continue to fly, and he draws Griffin into a brief but fierce slugfest. The punches turn to slaps for Means, which could signify some sort of damage to a hand, but he shucks any of those concerns by throwing a punch that pops Griffin in the chops. Means keeps Griffin guessing with head kicks, and Griffin finds his way in to land a heavy low kick. Means slaps him upside the head like a Diaz brother, only they are intended as damaging strikes and not disrespectful ones. Griffin jabs his way in, and he blocks a head kick once closing in. Griffin intercepts a rushing Means with a kick to the lead calf, and Means winces and tries to pay Griffin back. Means cuts his opponent off as he advances, and this slows the offense coming back his direction. Means works the body with a left and a right, and he slides back to plant the ball of his foot on the breadbasket before Griffin can land him. The two trade body kicks, and Means jumps at his adversary with a knee that glances off the side. Griffin considers a level change, and as this fails, he hops back. Means hammers a low kick on the inside of the knee, and this slows the movement momentarily. Means walks face-first into a right hand, and this rocks Means and separates him from his balance. As Means falls to the ground, Griffin finds himself taking top position while punching the side. They trade short blows as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 3
Means comes out of his corner aggressively, and he strikes his way into a takedown effort. Griffin stuffs it and drops to his knees, and Means smashes his own knee into the sternum. Griffin reels and whirls around to counter Means’ takedown with his own attempt, and he manages to suck Means’ legs out and drag him to the floor. Means squeezes tightly to keep Griffin pinned to him, and he lands several heel strikes to the thigh as he constantly remains busy off his back with irritating blows. Griffin remains heavy with top pressure and not willing to sit up and fall into potential submission danger, as he wisely grinds out and considers a guard pass. Means turns to his side in an effort to escape, but Griffin hangs on to keep him trapped. Means scoots his back to the wall, only for “Pain” to yank him back down. When Griffin postures up to rain down blows, Means attacks with a submission attempt that he uses to stand back up. Griffin pressures him against the wall and locks his hands with a double, and this sets Means on his seat again much to the disappointment of “The Dirty Bird.” Means continues to smack Griffin with short, frustrating strikes to the body and head, all while working his way to his knees to get upright. Griffin pursues a single, and he lowers his head right into a knee that Means cracks him with. Means takes Griffin down to turn the tables, and he rips the body with a fierce knee before securing a double with seconds to spare. For one final exclamation point, Means lifts his opponent up and slams him down hard. The fight comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Means (29-28 Griffin)
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (30-27 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (30-27 Griffin)

The Official Result
Max Griffin def. Tim Means via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Big Brady picks Max Griffin to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Griffin's power has improved recently, as seen in his knockout of Aalon Cruz, while Means' durability has declined with age and damage. He mentions that Means has been hurt in recent fights by lesser punchers, and Griffin's durability is excellent. He expects Griffin to land hard shots and finish Means.

Griffin wins by second-round knockout
"give me Max Griffin by knockout I'll say like a second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Cody acknowledges Tim Means' plus money appeal but points to Means' durability issues at 38 years old and his tendency to fade in later rounds. He notes that Means has been relying more on wrestling as he ages, but Max Griffin has good takedown defense (as seen against Neil Magny) and a solid jab. Cody expects Griffin to beat Means to the jab, stuff takedowns, and eventually land a big shot or win two rounds. He is not betting the fight but picks Griffin.

"I gotta stay with Max Griffin although I don't fault you for maybe taking that live Underdog shot on Timmy so I'm not taking the shot on Timmy it's 38 years like it isn't it isn't very pretty at this …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Daniel Levi picks Max Griffin, citing his momentum, confidence, and aspirations to break into the top 15. He notes Griffin's dangerous striking and recent close fight with Neil Magny. He questions Tim Means' durability and suggests Means may be near retirement. However, he has no interest in laying the -190 price and will just watch.

"I'm a pickaxe Griffin I just don't have any interest in laying the price so I'm personally gonna sit back and enjoy two true vets of the game go at it."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tim Means

Jacob picks Tim Means, expecting him to survive Griffin's early power and then wear him down with pace, pressure, and wrestling. He compares it to Griffin's fight with Neil Magny, where Griffin faded. Jacob thinks Means wins by decision.

Tim Means by decision
"I gotta go with the dirty bird Tim Means to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Griffin has athletic advantages and more left in the tank compared to Means, who is slowing down. Means has better combinations but Griffin's power could catch him. Griffin by knockout at +250 is appealing, but no bet at the current moneyline. Live betting Griffin if Means has early success is a potential strategy.

Griffin by knockout +250
"Griffin via knock it at plus 250 definitely tickles my fancy I like that spot but no bet for me at that minus 200 range"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Paul leans toward Tim Means as a dog, expecting a close stand-up fight where Means may get a hot start. However, he admits Means' cardio and durability are concerns, and he does not love the bet. He picks Means for the show but says he won't bet it, noting the over 2.5 rounds at -160 seems about right.

Over 2.5 rounds at -160 (mentioned as about right)
"I'm leaning as a dog or pass but I don't think it's gonna get my money I'll pick Tim Means for the purposes of this show but trust me I don't love it I'm not gonna bet it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Max Griffin

The MMA Guru picks Max Griffin over Tim Means, believing Griffin's calf kicks will be effective against Means' heavy lead leg. He notes Griffin's improved boxing and ability to drop opponents, as seen against Neil Magny. He thinks Means, at 38 and coming off a loss to Kevin Holland, will struggle with Griffin's pressure and predicts Griffin wins by 29-28 decision, taking over as the fight goes on.

"I'm going Max Griffin... I love the calf kicks of Max Griffin against Tim Means"
LOSS vs Kevin Holland
Submission (D'Arce choke) R2 1:28 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 21 of 46 45% 25 of 52 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:30
Tim Means 0 36 of 90 40% 53 of 109 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 14 of 34 41% 18 of 40 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:30
Tim Means 0 27 of 70 38% 44 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Kevin Holland 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Tim Means 0 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 21 of 46 45% 8 of 25 11 of 17 2 of 4 20 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tim Means 36 of 90 40% 26 of 71 3 of 9 7 of 10 33 of 85 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 14 of 34 41% 7 of 22 6 of 10 1 of 2 13 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tim Means 27 of 70 38% 21 of 57 2 of 6 4 of 7 24 of 65 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Kevin Holland 7 of 12 58% 1 of 3 5 of 7 1 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tim Means 9 of 20 45% 5 of 14 1 of 3 3 of 3 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Tim Means
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-275), Means (+220)

Round 1
With the loss of Cerrone vs. Lauzon (again), this welterweight banger has been elevated to the co-main event slot. UFC President Dana White should keep his checkbook handy to write out a bonus for this one (and the rest of the night, to boot), if the histories of “The Dirty Bird” Means (32-12-1, 1 NC; 14-9, 1 NC UFC) and “Trailblazer” Holland (22-7, 1 NC; 9-4, 1 NC UFC) are any indication of what to expect now. Identical knockout rates of 59% are celebrated by both men, and they have both landed exactly five submissions to their credit as well. Good-spirited action and excitement is about to come, and referee Kerry Hatley practically has to keep them back in their corners before sprinting out to battle. The 170ers do touch gloves, and Means uses a push kick to the knee to back Holland away from him early. Holland paws out with a left over the head, and Means walks in to brawl. Holland steps back and rips a left to the jaw on the inside, and he lands again to force Means into a double-leg takedown attempt. The crowd starts to boo immediately, and Holland shoves him back and lets go with a left. Holland powers off the cage wall with a flurry of fists, and Means greets him with a few of his own. Means takes a few punches on the inside to land a few, and “Trailblazer” slashes with a clean elbow over the top to break them up. Holland goes to the body with a side kick and then up high with a head kick, and he charges in with a knee right down Broadway. Means is tough and does not flinch, and instead spins with a wheel kick. Means catches a knee from his opponent, and he lifts Holland up and sets him down on the mat. Holland springs up and connects with three blistering punches to sting Means. Means tries to stop the blows from scoring by tying Holland up and pressing him into the wall, and he gathers himself and works the thigh with knees. Holland pushes away to take the center of the cage back, and he sticks out several jabs and a head kick. Means blows his nose out from the kick, and Holland puts three punches on him to knock Means’ head around. They talk to one another with seemingly friendly banter about hitting each other, and Holland takes a few steps back to get off three kicks in rapid succession. Holland chains together a few punches, and Means replies and draws a huge smile out of “Trailblazer.” They slug it out recklessly and entertainingly, and Holland resets first so he can let loose with a high kick. Holland splits the guard with a left hand, and Means is hurt. Two more punches from the Texan connect cleanly, forcing a takedown effort from Means. Holland hits the mat and powers right back up, and the round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 2
Gloves get touched by the action-packed welterweights before engaging, and they both score side kicks to start off the round. Means targets the body, and Holland tags him with four or five punches before Means can react. Holland spins with a back fist that comes up short, and when he turns about, Holland goes to his lead leg. Means blocks several punches, and Holland swarms him with punches before measuring Means with punches as Means shells up against the wall ready to counter.
Holland lets Means off the hook so that he can fight at his safer range, and when back in his preferred distance, he clocks Means with a right hand that strips Means legs away almost instantly. Before falling over, Means leans into a takedown try, but he leaves his neck exposed. They do not even hit the mat before Holland uses his long arms to snake around the neck, where he snatches up a smooth brabo choke. It is tight in a hurry, and when the two land on the ground, Means turns to his side but is in even worse position than before. Knowing his goose is cooked, Means does not fight it any further or risk going out from this blood choke, and he wisely surrenders.
“Trailblazer” has announced himself as a force to be reckoned with in his new division, and the Texas crowd bellows its affection for its local fighter.

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Tim Means R2 1:28 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting his striking accuracy and power. He acknowledges Holland's poor takedown defense but believes Tim Means doesn't have the raw athleticism or power to exploit it like others. He thinks the 3-to-1 odds are crazy but still picks Holland.

"i do think kevin holland gets this done and he pulls off the win the three to one odds kevin allen's almost a three to one favorite i think those are crazy to me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round knockout. He notes Holland has a significant reach advantage and power, while Means is older with diminishing durability and chin. He believes Means' best chance is grappling, but Means rarely implements that game plan, and Holland's BJJ black belt and improved get-up game should keep the fight standing where Holland can knock him out.

second round knockout
"I think kevin holland goes out here and gets a knockout in texas his home state so yeah i like kevin holland i like kevin holland to win by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody is high on Kevin Holland at 170, citing his improved takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and size advantage. He thinks Tim Means lacks the wrestling and cardio to exploit Holland, and Holland will chip away for a late finish or decision. He notes Holland's guard is active and Means' recent wins are over lower-level competition.

Kevin Holland by third round finish or 29-28 decision
"i think kevin holland just breaks him away over time and gets that finish"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to win via an opportunistic finish, citing Holland's unorthodox style and ability to create chaos. He acknowledges Tim Means is well-rounded and may have early success, but believes Holland's length and creativity will prevail. However, he is not confident Holland covers the -300 spread, noting Holland's takedown defense issues and that Means can mix in takedowns. Levi sees it as a high-variance fight where Holland finds a way, but the price is too steep for a comfortable bet.

opportunistic finish; Holland -300 is too high; Means +250 has value
"i see kevin holland being opportunistic finding a way to make it happen i just don't know how it's gonna be"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul agrees Holland should win but is wary of the -275 price. He notes Holland's size, reach, and guard are advantages, but the high favorite line gives him pause. He doesn't love the matchup for Means but isn't sure he'll bet Holland at that price.

"kevin holland at minus 275 sends shivers down my spine"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, calling it straightforward. He notes Holland's reach advantage and youth, and believes Tim Means will get cracked and hurt. He predicts Holland will win by KO via elbows in the clinch in the first round, similar to his win over Anthony Hernandez. He doesn't worry about Holland's grappling at welterweight.

first round elbow ko
"i'm gonna go with kevin holland pretty straightforward here... kevin holland elbow ko first round against tim means"
WIN vs Nicolas Dalby
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tim Means 0 53 of 93 56% 94 of 134 1 of 4 25% 0 0 8:03
Nicolas Dalby 0 54 of 116 46% 84 of 146 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tim Means 0 15 of 26 57% 38 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:07
Nicolas Dalby 0 11 of 20 55% 21 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
2 Tim Means 0 29 of 49 59% 35 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:45
Nicolas Dalby 0 24 of 60 40% 28 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
3 Tim Means 0 9 of 18 50% 21 of 30 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:11
Nicolas Dalby 0 19 of 36 52% 35 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tim Means 53 of 93 56% 20 of 55 29 of 33 4 of 5 32 of 70 17 of 19 4 of 4
Nicolas Dalby 54 of 116 46% 37 of 93 13 of 19 4 of 4 35 of 88 19 of 28 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tim Means 15 of 26 57% 6 of 16 7 of 8 2 of 2 9 of 20 4 of 4 2 of 2
Nicolas Dalby 11 of 20 55% 8 of 16 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 11 5 of 9 0 of 0
2 Tim Means 29 of 49 59% 12 of 30 15 of 16 2 of 3 18 of 36 9 of 11 2 of 2
Nicolas Dalby 24 of 60 40% 17 of 49 5 of 9 2 of 2 20 of 53 4 of 7 0 of 0
3 Tim Means 9 of 18 50% 2 of 9 7 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 19 of 36 52% 12 of 28 7 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 24 10 of 12 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nicolas Dalby vs. Tim Means

Round 1
Up next at welterweight, the man formerly known as “Lokomotivo” now sports a fancy new nickname of “Danish Dynamite” as Dalby (19-3-1, 2 NC; 3-2-1, 1 NC UFC) squares off with longtime vet and longtime nicknamed “The Dirty Bird” Means (31-12-1, 1 NC; 11-9, 1 NC UFC). Action is the name of the game here, and referee Jason Herzog may have his hands full as these two throw down. There is no chance of a glove touch, as these two 170ers are intense and ready to start brawling. Means fires off a head kick early, and Dalby eats it on the chin and starts to brawl. Both men throw caution to the wind immediately, and they hammer one another with alternating shots. As Dalby closes in, Means hits a takedown and puts the Danish fighter on his back. Means passes to side control as he works elbows from on top, slowly and methodically working his way to either advance to mount or otherwise do some damage. When Dalby holds on to him to tie him up, Means slams him down with his chest. Means crawls Dalby over to the cage wall, where he starts smacking his foe in the face with heavy punches. Dalby gets to his knees as he looks to walk up the fence, and Means keeps him grounded and lands some punches. Dalby is practically gasping for air three minutes in, although it does not necessarily mean that he is spent. Means knees him in the chest when he stands up, and Dalby breaks free and bounces around to get his blood flowing again. Means kicks him in the body and fires off a few punches, and Dalby dances out of the way. “Danish Dynamite” looks to explode with a right hand across the forward bow, but Means sees it coming, parries it and gets shoved into the fence. A few strikes for Means have opened up a cut near the bridge of the nose on Dalby’s right eyebrows, and a sharp one-two nearly knocks Dalby off of his feet. “The Dirty Bird” keeps it dirty in the clinch, and he gets off an elbow or two before they break. Dalby shoots in for a takedown right as the round ends, but it does not succeed.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Means
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Means
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Means

Round 2
Dalby fires off a few punches before rushing in to a takedown attempt, and Means is there to thump him in the body a few times. The welterweights tie up against the fence and score short punches, before breaking free. Dalby gets off a single leg kick, and then he changes it up to land flush to the body. Means aims a few punches up top, and a left hand splits the guard. Means sees its success and nails Dalby again, and one more gets Dalby’s attention. Means cracks Dalby on the chin, and the Danish fighter has quite a beard on him as he walks through everything to land a few of his own. Means targets the body and head indiscriminately, and Dalby walks in with a chain of punches into a knee. Dalby shoots in but gets shucked away just in time, and when they get back up, Dalby leaps forward with a left hand. Dalby works two right hands one after the other, and Means greets him with a left hand to the liver. Dalby slings a head kick, and they crash the pocket and score some body shots. When “Danish Dynamite” looses another body kick, Means rushes in to strike before clinching. Breaking free, Dalby slings kicks high and low, but Means’ responsive head kick is much more effective. Means kicks Dalby’s leg out from beneath him, and “The Dirty Bird” hops on top in side control to deal some damage. Means keeps a heavy top pressure to ride out the round, using a few short shoulder strikes when Dalby tries to wall-walk with his feet. Means keeps this position until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Means
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Means
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Means

Round 3
Means sprints out of his corner to throw a body kick and a left hand, and Dalby is there to fire right back. In a wild exchange, Dalby nails Means with a right hand, smashing the nose of “The Dirty Bird” and hurting him for the first time. Means stumbles back to the wall, and Dalby wraps him up against the fence while flirting with trips. Means spins him around and considers a single leg takedown, but he cannot ground the Danish fighter. Means backs off and re-engages, pressing Dalby tightly into the cage. This stalemate continues for quite some time, as both men look to clear any cobwebs. Dalby knees Means in the face once to break free, and he clips Means again with a strike. Dalby throws everything he has at Means, but the American grabs hold of him and pins him back to the cage wall. Means changes levels for a single, and he chains it into a double leg takedown, but neither succeed. All the while, precious seconds for Dalby are ticking off the clock, who is trying to break free but cannot escape the grip of “The Dirty Bird.” Means scores a few short punches to the body, grinding Dalby out and landing enough to stave off any referee intervention. When Dalby breaks the grip, Means gives him a shove into the fencing, where he clinches up again. At the 10-second clapper, Dalby tries desperately to get off, hurting Means again. Means gloms on to him, tying him up to the final bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Means)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Means)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Means)

The Official Result
Tim Means def. Nicolas Dalby via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Angelo picks Tim Means, citing his high-volume striking, underrated wrestling, and ability to avoid damage. He notes Means picks his shots and takes opponents down when needed. He expects Means to win a decision. He likes less on Means and more on Dalby for the monkey knife fight line.

"tim means is my pick here i think tim needs sort of picks him apart take him down takes him down when he needs to and rides out a decision win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Tim Means

Big Brady picks Tim Means to win by decision, citing superior striking stats (5.16 sig strikes/min, 48% accuracy, 61% striking defense) and Dalby's negative strike differential. He notes Dalby has been dropped in four of seven UFC fights but never KO'd. He thinks Means will out-volume Dalby on the feet, as Dalby rarely wrestles (only one takedown in last five fights). He is confident Means is the better striker.

by decision
"i will take 10 means to win i'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Cody picks Dalby as a live underdog. He notes Dalby's toughness and heart, and that Means has lost as a favorite before. He points out that Means had a fight cancelled last week, which could disrupt his preparation. Cody also mentions Dalby's reach advantage and that Means is 37 with wear and tear. He thinks Dalby can grind Means against the cage and take over late if Means doesn't finish early.

"i'm gonna officially go for the prp sake dolby because again what am i going to do pick all these favorites like i'm recognizing this as a dog with a chance"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Jacob picks Nicolas Dalby, jokingly citing that Dalby fought Darren Till to a draw in 2015 and outstruck him. He seems to be half-joking but picks Dalby to win. He does not provide serious technical analysis.

"dalby in 2015 bought the best striking middleweight in the world to a draw and outstruck him 111 to 49. we're talking about the greatest middleweight gonna go down of all time one of the greatest strikers of all time …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tim Means

Means is a much better striker with higher output than Dalby. If Means keeps the fight vertical, he will light up Dalby. Dalby has knockout power but Means' durability is a concern; however, Means should avoid getting knocked out. Means' efficiency and tight striking will earn him a decision. Dalby's speed and timing could pose issues, but Means is the more proven striker.

Means by decision plus 205
"I think that if means is able to keep the swipe vertical which i think he will he's going to light up dolby like a christmas tree himself... I do like tim means here i like tim means actually by …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Paul picks Tim Means, citing Means' better striking and underrated wrestling. He notes Means was supposed to fight last week and had a cancelled bout, but that might not be a big issue. He thinks Means has the skills to win, but acknowledges Dalby's toughness and that Means can fade. He is not confident and suggests watching weigh-ins.

"means for me but you know having a fight last week having it cancelled a lot of moving parts definitely uh tune into the weigh-ins"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Tim Means

The MMA Guru picks Tim Means by first-round submission (d'arce choke), citing his crisp boxing and ability to land straight shots down the pipe. He identifies defensive holes in Dalby's striking, as seen in the Jesse Ronson fight, and believes Means will hurt Dalby, prompting a bad takedown that leads to a choke. He trusts Means' composure and experience.

first round submission, d'arce choke
"i'm gonna go with tim means i think he's gonna get a first round ko over nicholas dalby"
WIN vs Mike Perry
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tim Means 0 64 of 161 39% 69 of 166 1 of 5 20% 2 0 3:08
Mike Perry 0 128 of 192 66% 143 of 207 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tim Means 0 14 of 31 45% 14 of 31 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:22
Mike Perry 0 27 of 40 67% 30 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:09
2 Tim Means 0 20 of 60 33% 20 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Mike Perry 0 44 of 60 73% 44 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Tim Means 0 30 of 70 42% 35 of 75 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:33
Mike Perry 0 57 of 92 61% 69 of 104 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tim Means 64 of 161 39% 44 of 134 8 of 12 12 of 15 62 of 157 2 of 4 0 of 0
Mike Perry 128 of 192 66% 86 of 147 26 of 28 16 of 17 121 of 184 6 of 7 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tim Means 14 of 31 45% 7 of 24 3 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Perry 27 of 40 67% 18 of 31 7 of 7 2 of 2 24 of 36 2 of 3 1 of 1
2 Tim Means 20 of 60 33% 11 of 46 3 of 6 6 of 8 20 of 59 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Perry 44 of 60 73% 28 of 43 10 of 10 6 of 7 42 of 58 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Tim Means 30 of 70 42% 26 of 64 2 of 3 2 of 3 29 of 68 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mike Perry 57 of 92 61% 40 of 73 9 of 11 8 of 8 55 of 90 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Big Brady hesitantly picks Tim Means to win by decision. He thinks Means is the more technical and well-rounded fighter, but has durability concerns after being knocked out recently. He notes Perry's headspace is questionable and he didn't look great against Gall, but Means is on short notice.

big pass, need to see weigh-ins
"i'm going to go with means i'm going to go with the dude that probably has more motivation for this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Tim Means

Daniel picks Means, citing his superior boxing and overall MMA skills. He notes Perry's lack of head movement and poor corner situation. He believes Means can stay disciplined, use volume, and mix in takedowns to avoid Perry's power. He thinks Means should be the favorite.

"i'm gonna go with tim means to get it done and i think he makes it two wins in a row here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Tim Means

The host picks Tim Means to win by decision, noting his superior skill set and ability to keep Perry at range with leg kicks and teeps. He is skeptical of Perry's power and thinks Means can outpoint him. He would only bet Means if the line reaches plus 150.

"I'm taking Tim Means to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Mike Perry

The MMA Guru picks Mike Perry to win by unanimous decision (29-28), but expresses worry. He notes Means took the fight on short notice, and Perry has a full camp now. He expects Perry to use takedowns and outwork Means in the later rounds, but admits Means is dangerous and a full-camp Means might beat Perry.

"i'm going with mike perry by unanimous decision 29 28 but i'm worried"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo leans on Morono, noting his clean striking and recent improvements. He says Tim Means is gritty and well-rounded, and that unless you're ranked or dangerous, you shouldn't be a 2-to-1 favorite over Means. He calls it a close fight and is not betting on it.

"I am gonna lean on him for the pick here but holy crap is this a close fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady is a huge Tim Means fan but has serious concerns about Means' durability at 39 years old and after 48 fights. He notes Means has been getting dropped and finished recently, and questions his focus as he seems more into coaching. Brady compares this to the Morono vs. Cerrone fight, predicting Morono will land a big shot, swarm, and finish Means. He picks Morono by second-round knockout and suggests Means may retire after this fight.

second round knockout
"give me Alex marona to win this fight I'll say he wins this fight by second round knockout I think he knocks out Tim Means on Saturday"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Cody picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and 50 pro fights, leading to durability and speed decline. He notes Means' tendency to gas after the first round and Morono's volume and pressure. He expects Morono to chew away at Means and possibly get a late stoppage. He acknowledges Means' skill but believes his best days are behind him.

"I'm just doubting it on a personal level so we'll take Alex morono to get the job done which pains me because we've been doing this show for like nine years and we've been covering Tim Means fights pretty much that entire time he's a OG"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Connor picks Morono, agreeing that Means is past his prime and gets hurt too often. He highlights Morono's lateral movement, jab, and counter-punching, which will frustrate Means. He thinks Means will have moments but ultimately lose a decision or get dropped.

"I got to take Morono, even if it's by decision, I think it's much more likely that Tim Means gets dropped in a couple of rounds."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Daniel Levi picks Alex Morono but with low confidence, citing Tim Means' age (39-40) and declining durability as the deciding factor. He notes that statistically, Means is competitive and would be a live dog if younger, but Means' recent fights show he can't take damage like before. Levi expects a competitive fight but favors Morono's unorthodox style and durability. He passes on betting due to the price, calling it a dog-or-pass situation.

pass on betting at -225; fight could go to decision or be a war
"I'm gonna pick Alex Morano but it's not a confident pick and it's not something I'm interested it's a dog or pass situation"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Morono's pressure, pace, and volume will be too much for Means, who has diminished durability at 39. Means is the better technical striker but can't take shots like before. Morono will march forward, land big shots, and likely find a knockout or submission. Means may have moments but Morono's relentless style will overwhelm him.

inside the distance, TKO
"gimme Alex morono inside the distance I'm gonna call it via TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Morono. He notes that Means gasses after 6-7 minutes and lacks a grappling game. He mentions that Morono might mix in takedowns and fish for a submission, and that the market has moved on that prop. He sees Morono as the rightful favorite.

submission prop (market moved from 9-1 to 6.5-1)
"my biggest struggle yeah I just I just can't get behind the dirty bird at this point he seems to really absolutely guess about six seven minutes into every single fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, noting that he had a full training camp and has better hand speed and cardio. He believes Tim Means has slowed down and will struggle with Morono's pace. He predicts a dominant decision or a late finish.

dominant decision win 30-27
"Alex morono I think is going to win this matchup... I see him getting finished on the feet maybe as the fight goes on or maybe there'll be a dominant decision win for morono here 30 27."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Zane picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and tendency to get hurt now. He notes that Means' pressure-counter style leaves him vulnerable, and Morono's awkward but effective striking, good footwork, and jab will cause problems. He thinks Morono will land a big counter and potentially drop Means, though a decision is likely.

"I got to take Morono, even if it's by decision, I think it's much more likely that Tim Means gets dropped in a couple of rounds."