Career Averages - Yan Xiaonan
Career Averages - Jéssica Andrade
Yan Xiaonan
Jéssica Andrade
Yan Xiaonan - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 17 of 44 | 38% | 64 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:27 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 96 of 131 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 3 | 1 | 9:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 31 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:03 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:27 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 40 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 4:14 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 19 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 38 of 49 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 2:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 17 of 44 | 38% | 13 of 34 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 11 of 20 | 55% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 6 of 17 | 35% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 7 of 21 | 33% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Connor picks Virna Jandiroba, arguing that the only fighters to beat her are those who can scramble with her, and he doesn't believe Yan is that type of fighter. He notes that Jandiroba's pressure and wrestling will force Yan to fight on the back foot, and that Jandiroba has a proven ability to turn messy situations into wins. Connor acknowledges Yan's striking improvements but thinks Jandiroba's grappling will be the deciding factor.
Daniel Levi credits Yan Xiaonan for surviving three rounds on the mat with Virna Jandiroba despite being a blue belt, but acknowledges Jandiroba's victory. He states Jandiroba earned her title shot and should face Zhang Weili next.
Zane picks Yan Xiaonan, citing her rapid improvement and newfound confidence after her title fight loss. He believes her striking at range is superior to Jandiroba's previous opponents, and that Jandiroba's game relies on opponents making huge mistakes, which Yan is less prone to. Zane acknowledges Yan's grappling weakness but sees a clear path for her to bank points and do damage at range.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 78 of 161 | 48% | 89 of 172 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 15 of 103 | 14% | 17 of 106 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 0 of 13 | 0% | 0 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 34 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 8 of 30 | 26% | 10 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 37 of 67 | 55% | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 7 of 60 | 11% | 7 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 78 of 161 | 48% | 45 of 118 | 25 of 34 | 8 of 9 | 77 of 159 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 15 of 103 | 14% | 8 of 85 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 14 | 15 of 101 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 16 of 40 | 40% | 5 of 25 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 of 13 | 0% | 0 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 25 of 54 | 46% | 16 of 40 | 7 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 25 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 8 of 30 | 26% | 3 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 37 of 67 | 55% | 24 of 53 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 7 of 60 | 11% | 5 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 7 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her boxing and technical striking. He acknowledges Tabatha Ricci's pressure and cardio but believes Yan's skills and takedown defense will prevail. He suggests the over 2.5 rounds is a good bet.
Big Brady picks Tabatha Ricci with little confidence. He thinks the odds are off and that Yan Xiaonan's takedown defense is questionable, recalling the Carla Esparza loss where Yan was easily taken down. If Ricci can get takedowns, she can win minutes on top. Even on the feet, Ricci can push Yan against the cage and burn clock. Brady sees a path for Ricci to win by decision but is not confident.
Cody picks Ricci as a live underdog, arguing that Yan's takedown defense is suspect and Ricci's grappling is elite. He notes that Ricci has taken down multiple black belts and that Yan was exposed by Carla Esparza's wrestling. He believes Ricci can get takedowns, control top position, and grind out a decision or even a submission. He likes Ricci by decision at plus money.
Connor also picks Yan, emphasizing that Yan's boxing is far superior and that Ricci's grappling, while strong, may not be effective against a bigger, high-output striker. He notes that Ricci's top game is static and she struggles to finish, so Yan can survive takedowns and win on the feet. Connor agrees that the three-round format helps Ricci but still favors Yan.
Daniel Vreeland is a long-time Yan Xiaonan backer and continues the trend here. He sees a big size and striking advantage for Yan, noting Ricci's janky striking and poor top control. He references Ricci's inability to hold down Angela Hill and believes Yan's improved takedown defense and toughness will allow her to get back up. He expects Yan to light Ricci up on the feet and win decisively.
James leans towards Yan Xiaonan as the better striker, but is cautious due to Yan coming off a brutal loss and Ricci's improving grappling. He expects Yan to win a 29-28 decision on damage, but considers it a pass fight with no strong betting opinion.
Ricci's ability to mix it up in the clinch with takedowns and her comfort in striking will allow her to put together a better body of work over 15 minutes and win on the scorecards, pulling off the upset.
Paul picks Yan Xiaonan but is hesitant, noting that Ricci has a path to victory via takedowns and control. He thinks Yan's striking power and ferocity will be the difference, but she must stay off her back and get up immediately if taken down. He expects a close fight that goes to decision and could see a split.
The MMA Guru picks Yan Xiaonan over Tabatha Ricci, citing Yan's better boxing, range control, and size advantage. He notes Yan has fought top competition, including a decision loss to Zhang Weili where she dropped Zhang, and wins over Jessica Andrade and Mackenzie Dern. He believes Ricci's 'bunder' won't sway judges in China. He predicts a decision win for Yan.
Zane picks Yan Xiaonan, citing her superior striking volume, technique, and power. He acknowledges Ricci's improved boxing and strong double-leg takedown, but doubts Ricci's ability to control Yan on the ground due to size and static top game. Zane also notes that the three-round format helps Ricci, but Yan's striking advantage should carry her if she avoids being controlled for two rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 106 of 157 | 67% | 256 of 327 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 12:44 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 1 | 43 of 85 | 50% | 73 of 116 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 20 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 7 of 23 | 30% | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 54 of 59 | 91% | 66 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:51 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 39 of 56 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 1 | 26 of 34 | 76% | 33 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 59 of 86 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 72 of 81 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 106 of 157 | 67% | 84 of 119 | 13 of 19 | 9 of 19 | 34 of 78 | 4 of 4 | 68 of 75 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 43 of 85 | 50% | 21 of 60 | 4 of 6 | 18 of 19 | 24 of 64 | 3 of 4 | 16 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 17 of 30 | 56% | 9 of 16 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 8 | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 7 of 23 | 30% | 6 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 54 of 59 | 91% | 51 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 48 of 49 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 12 of 25 | 48% | 4 of 14 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 26 of 34 | 76% | 7 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 16 | 9 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 15 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 19 of 33 | 57% | 16 of 26 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 19 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is most confident in Zhang Weili, calling her better in every aspect of MMA. He notes her dominant performance against Amanda Lemos and believes she will easily defeat Yan Xiaonan. He recommends using her as a parlay anchor.
Cody sees a clear path for Zhang Weili via wrestling. He notes Yan Xiaonan has been taken down easily by Carla Esparza, Marina Rodriguez, and Mackenzie Dern, and has no get-up game. In contrast, Zhang Weili has excellent grappling, taking down Rose Namajunas five times and Joanna Jedrzejczyk three times. Cody believes Zhang can win on the feet too, but the path of least resistance is takedowns and ground control. He expects Zhang to grind Yan down and possibly secure a rear-naked choke or TKO.
Daniel Vreeland picks Zhang Weili, stating that Yan Xiaonan's path to victory is unclear. He notes that Weili is always balanced and in the right position, and that she can match volume. He also mentions that Weili beat Yan J at her own game, and that she has a huge grappling advantage if she chooses to use it.
Daniel Vreeland picks Yan Xiaonan as a massive underdog, citing his history of betting on her in every UFC fight and her value at plus odds. He acknowledges Zhang Weili's grappling advantage but believes Yan's improved takedown defense and striking can keep the fight standing, where she has the edge. He notes Yan's survival against McKenzie Dern as evidence of her improved ground game.
Jeff Fox picks Zhang Weili, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that Weili is better everywhere in this fight, and that she will put on a one-sided beating. He also mentions that if she chose to grapple, she could finish the fight.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He mentions it as the all-Chinese women's title fight but does not give a prediction. He only discusses it in the context of the card's strength.
Weili should put together a better body of work with a mixture of takedowns and striking damage to retain her title and win on the scorecards. However, -500 is not accurate as Yan Xiaonan is much livelier than the underdog price indicates and will provide resistance.
Paul sees this as a dogger pass situation, noting that women's strawweight fights are often close and go the distance. He acknowledges Zhang Weili should be the favorite but thinks the 4-to-1 price is too wide. Paul mentions Yan Xiaonan's path to victory is a first-round knockout, pointing out that Zhang has been knocked out before (by Rose Namajunas head kick) and that Yan just knocked out Jessica Andrade in the first round. He's tempted by the +385 underdog and the 30-to-1 round one prop.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili to win by decision, dominating Yan Xiaonan. He praises Zhang's improvement and her performance against Amanda Lemos. He sees no path to victory for Yan and expects Zhang to use her grappling and striking to control the fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 12 of 32 | 37% | 5 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 26 of 36 | 72% | 12 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 12 of 32 | 37% | 5 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 26 of 36 | 72% | 12 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Jéssica Andrade but with very low confidence, admitting he has flip-flopped multiple times. He thinks Andrade's raw power and bullying style can close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she can pound away. However, he acknowledges Yan Xiaonan is the better striker with clean technique and composure. Angelo notes that if Andrade can't bully her way in, she'll be a step behind on the feet. He emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick.
Big Brady picks Andrade, citing her wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes Yan Xiaonan was dominated by Carla Esparza, who has no finishing ability, so Andrade's takedowns and top control will be overwhelming. He believes Andrade is super strong for the division, has great cardio, and will take Yan down at will. He predicts a second-round TKO via ground and pound.
Cody thinks Andrade should win on paper with her strength, power, and experience, but is concerned about her recent performance against Erin Blanchfield where she looked burnt out and quit. He notes she's been fighting for a decade and may be mentally done. He leans toward Andrade but says he doesn't trust her at -200 and might take Yan as an underdog if he needs one later.
Connor also picks Andrade, agreeing that Yan's volume won't be enough against Andrade's power and durability. He notes that Andrade is a rare power puncher in the division and that Yan's awkward kicks and jabs won't deter her. Connor mentions that Yan's best wins are against opponents who couldn't match her output, but Andrade is different.
The host picks Jéssica Andrade, believing her strength, top pressure, and ability to drag the fight to the ground will be decisive. He acknowledges Yan Xiaonan's striking and submission defense but thinks Andrade's power and grappling will overwhelm Yan. He expects Andrade to get a ground and pound finish.
Paul got burned betting on Andrade against Blanchfield and is wary of the -200 price. He notes that Andrade's takedowns could be effective, as MacKenzie Dern had success taking Yan down. He thinks Andrade gets back on track but the price is too high after her last performance, so he picks her but won't bet.
The Guru picks Andrade, believing she won't be outgrappled by Yan and that her pressure and body shots will be key. He notes Yan has been outgrappled before (by Carla Esparza) and that Andrade's size at strawweight is dangerous. He predicts a TKO in the second round via body shots and punches against the cage.
Zane picks Andrade, noting that Yan's success comes against opponents who can't make her pay for her volume, but Andrade has the physicality and power to do so. He points out that Andrade doesn't gas out and that Yan's game plan of stuffing takedowns and outworking won't work against Andrade. Zane compares Yan's style to Joanna Jedrzejczyk but says Yan is not Joanna.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 61 of 151 | 40% | 224 of 339 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 2 | 2 | 9:19 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 113 of 195 | 57% | 151 of 240 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 16 of 42 | 38% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:01 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 28 of 52 | 53% | 38 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 56 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 2:44 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 8 of 9 | 88% | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:50 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 18 of 45 | 40% | 22 of 49 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 32 of 66 | 48% | 32 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 4 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 30 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 38 of 56 | 67% | 49 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 | |
| 5 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 97 of 113 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 61 of 151 | 40% | 45 of 132 | 10 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 52 of 136 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 8 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 113 of 195 | 57% | 53 of 126 | 14 of 21 | 46 of 48 | 100 of 178 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 16 of 42 | 38% | 13 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 28 of 52 | 53% | 12 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 15 | 25 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 9 of 15 | 60% | 8 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 8 of 9 | 88% | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 18 of 45 | 40% | 10 of 36 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 32 of 66 | 48% | 12 of 41 | 3 of 7 | 17 of 18 | 31 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Yan Xiaonan | 14 of 38 | 36% | 10 of 33 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 38 of 56 | 67% | 18 of 36 | 8 of 8 | 12 of 12 | 34 of 49 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 | |
| 5 | Yan Xiaonan | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 7 of 12 | 58% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Cody also picks Dern by submission but expresses hesitations about her takedown accuracy (9%) and ability to get the fight to the ground consistently. He notes that Yan Xiaonan is tough and has good takedown defense, and that Dern's path to victory is entirely on the mat. He suggests live betting Yan if Dern fails to secure early takedowns, and mentions that Dern's submission win is the most logical outcome but not a lock.
Paul picks Mackenzie Dern by submission, noting her world-class jiu-jitsu and ability to get the fight to the ground via pulling guard or ugly clinch work. He acknowledges her one-dimensional striking and that Yan Xiaonan will likely win the standup, but believes Dern's durability and submission threat will prevail. He mentions the over/under on prize picks and the inside distance prop, but his official pick is Dern by submission.
The MMA Guru believes Mackenzie Dern's elite BJJ will be the deciding factor over five rounds. He notes that Yan Xiaonan has lost two straight and was dominated by Carla Esparza, who used a similar grappling-heavy game plan. He thinks Dern will eventually get the fight to the ground and secure a submission, as Yan has not faced a grappler of Dern's level since a faded Claudia Gadelha. He acknowledges Yan could win rounds early but expects Dern's persistence to pay off.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 72 of 200 | 36% | 79 of 207 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 56 of 132 | 42% | 66 of 143 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 18 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 25 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 14 of 45 | 31% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 14 of 34 | 41% | 22 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 | |
| 3 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 40 of 107 | 37% | 41 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 18 of 44 | 40% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 72 of 200 | 36% | 46 of 166 | 18 of 19 | 8 of 15 | 59 of 182 | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 56 of 132 | 42% | 37 of 105 | 7 of 9 | 12 of 18 | 48 of 121 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 18 of 48 | 37% | 9 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 8 | 16 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 24 of 54 | 44% | 18 of 42 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 8 | 21 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 14 of 45 | 31% | 9 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 38 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 14 of 34 | 41% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marina Rodriguez | 40 of 107 | 37% | 28 of 93 | 10 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 34 of 99 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 18 of 44 | 40% | 12 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes Marina is faster and more powerful, and that Yan has only executed a wrestle-heavy game plan once. He plans to place a plus 3.5 round bet on Yan, buying a round on the scorecard. He calls Yan 'stupid live' at the current odds.
Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez to win by decision. He believes Rodriguez will have a significant power advantage on the feet and that Yan Xiaonan is unlikely to attempt takedowns, which plays into Rodriguez's strengths. Brady notes that Rodriguez has improved her takedown defense and ground game, making it hard for Yan to take her down. He acknowledges the line is a bit steep at -250 but still favors Rodriguez to win.
Cody believes Rodriguez is the rightful favorite because she has never lost a striking battle and hits hard for the division. He notes her takedown defense is a concern but argues Yan's wrestling is not elite, based on tape of Yan's takedowns against Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Cody thinks if Yan can't take her down, Rodriguez wins the striking exchanges with volume and power.
Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan as a dog, citing the plus 250 odds. He believes this will be a close, competitive striking match and that Yan has the striking acumen to edge out a decision. He notes that Marina has only landed one takedown in her UFC career, so there is little takedown threat. He acknowledges Marina's improvements but thinks the odds are too wide and Yan has value.
The line is too wide; this is a 50/50 fight. Yan's power striking and training at Team Alpha Male should pose problems for Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a striker but hasn't faced someone with Yan's power. Yan's takedown defense is a concern, but Rodriguez rarely grapples. At plus money, Yan is the clear value pick. Yan can outstrike Rodriguez and win a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Rodriguez's striking volume and power. He is skeptical of Yan's wrestling after watching the Kowalkiewicz fight, where Yan's takedowns were not from clean entries but rather Kowalkiewicz giving up position. Paul believes if Yan cannot take Rodriguez down, she will lose the striking battle. He calls it a women's MMA fight but is confident in Rodriguez.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Yan Xiaonan, expecting a striking affair. He notes Yan's main weakness is grappling, but believes Rodriguez has improved her cardio and striking variety, using more kicks to the body and legs. He thinks Rodriguez is more powerful and tougher, predicting a 30-27 decision where she pieces Yan apart. He also expresses a hot take that Rodriguez will become champion.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 31 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 27 of 33 | 81% | 170 of 194 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 7:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 24 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 104 of 117 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:52 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 14 of 18 | 77% | 66 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 27 of 33 | 81% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 31 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 13 of 15 | 86% | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 14 of 18 | 77% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
Big Brady sides with Yan Xiaonan due to her striking volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute vs 2.29) and damage output, but is hesitant because Esparza's takedowns and control time could sway judges. He notes Yan's 75% takedown defense is key, but the fight is close and could go either way depending on judging criteria. He would bet Yan if she becomes an underdog.
Cody Saftic leans toward Carla Esparza, trusting the line movement from +150 to +100. He believes Esparza's wrestling and fight IQ will allow her to secure takedowns and control the fight, even if she fades in the third round. He notes that Esparza's style leads to close decisions and that she finds ways to win even when not at her best. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a pass.
Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her discipline, distance management, and takedown defense improvements at Team Alpha Male. He argues that Carla Esparza is one-dimensional with wrestling, while Yan has shown she can stuff takedowns and get back up, as seen against Claudia Gadelha. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Yan, possibly a late TKO, and believes she is the future champion.
Matt picks Carla Esparza despite being a fan of Yan Xiaonan, because he believes Esparza's elite wrestling and top control will be the deciding factor. He compares the matchup to Yan's fight against Claudia Gadelha, where Yan struggled with takedowns early but came back as Claudia faded. He argues Esparza has better cardio and wrestling than Gadelha, so she can grind out a decision. He notes Yan's takedown defense remains questionable and expects Esparza to secure takedowns in every round. He likes Esparza by decision at plus money.
Paul Shaughnessy picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she will stuff most takedowns and land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Esparza swells up from jabs and that Yan has shown improvement. However, he is not confident enough to bet, preferring to pass or parlay the fight going the distance. He acknowledges that either woman could win a close decision.
The MMA Guru predicts Yan Xiaonan will win by 30-27 unanimous decision. He believes Yan's takedown defense and range management with sidekicks will be key. Even when Esparza gets takedowns, Yan will stay busy off her back with elbows and punches, out-landing Esparza in total strikes, similar to Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 36 of 96 | 37% | 84 of 149 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 6:46 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 74 of 170 | 43% | 133 of 234 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 53 of 72 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 4:06 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 51 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 18 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 26 of 78 | 33% | 27 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 29 of 56 | 51% | 55 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 36 of 96 | 37% | 29 of 84 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 88 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 74 of 170 | 43% | 54 of 143 | 15 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 58 of 149 | 14 of 18 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 10 of 26 | 38% | 9 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 19 of 36 | 52% | 10 of 22 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 27 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 17 of 43 | 39% | 13 of 38 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 26 of 78 | 33% | 23 of 73 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 9 of 27 | 33% | 7 of 22 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 29 of 56 | 51% | 21 of 48 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 44 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Yan, citing her volume striking and power, and Gadelha's decline in wrestling and cardio. He thinks Yan's takedown defense is good and she will win a decision, possibly live betting opportunity. He notes Gadelha has been dropped before.
Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she is catching Cláudia Gadelha at the perfect time. He acknowledges Gadelha's grappling threat but thinks Yan can stuff takedowns and outwork her on the feet with volume and damage. Levi notes Yan's training at Alpha Male and with Sarah McMahon to improve wrestling, and he expects Yan to win a decision or possibly get a finish. He is concerned about submission but thinks Yan can avoid it.
The host likes Yan Xiaonan's pressure, power, and combinations to overwhelm Gadelha, who has cardio issues and declining takedown effectiveness. He notes Yan's training at Team Alpha Male and her ability to get back to her feet. He expects a decision or third-round TKO, and loves the -135 line.
The MMA Guru picks Yan Xiaonan to win by unanimous decision. He believes Yan will pick apart Gadelha from range with her straight punches, and that Gadelha slows down as the fight goes on. He notes Yan's high output and ability to rally in later rounds.
Jéssica Andrade - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 90 of 287 | 31% | 97 of 297 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 107 of 213 | 50% | 119 of 226 | 1 of 14 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 18 of 83 | 21% | 18 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 40 of 71 | 56% | 41 of 72 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 15 of 63 | 23% | 22 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 40 of 59 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 57 of 141 | 40% | 57 of 142 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 36 of 92 | 39% | 38 of 95 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 90 of 287 | 31% | 58 of 242 | 21 of 31 | 11 of 14 | 87 of 279 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 107 of 213 | 50% | 91 of 195 | 12 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 94 of 195 | 11 of 16 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 18 of 83 | 21% | 13 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 17 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 40 of 71 | 56% | 31 of 62 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 39 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 15 of 63 | 23% | 11 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 60 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 31 of 50 | 62% | 26 of 45 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 40 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 57 of 141 | 40% | 34 of 112 | 19 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 56 of 137 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 36 of 92 | 39% | 34 of 88 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 85 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Godinez has a giant grappling advantage and is the better fighter technically, but her fight IQ is questionable. He assumes she will make the right decisions and take Pepto before the fight. He thinks Andrade is a brute force brawler with limited skills, so Godinez should win if she doesn't do dumb things.
Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by second-round submission. He notes Andrade has been inconsistent and looks awful on the ground recently, with poor takedown defense. He thinks Godinez's path to victory is to mix in takedowns and grapple, as Andrade has been submitted many times. He worries about Godinez's fight IQ but trusts her to wrestle here. He mentions Godinez has a couple of submissions in the UFC and is working on her grappling.
Connor also picks Godinez, but feels split. He notes that Andrade has struggled against bigger fighters and panics, while Godinez is not much bigger but has a strong wrestling game. He thinks Godinez's wrestling, when keyed in, looks title-contender level. However, he is not fully confident because Godinez has sometimes let her wrestling get disconnected. He gives a vote of confidence that she will fight like she did against Polastri.
The host expresses disappointment in Godinez's development but thinks she can handle Andrade's aggressive striking. He predicts Godinez will land enough takedowns in the first two rounds to grind out a decision, surviving the third round.
The Guru picks Jéssica Andrade to win by TKO in round two. He believes Andrade will be too overwhelming with her punches for Loopy Godinez. The Guru notes that Godinez is easily hittable and has had close fights with lower-level competition. He doesn't see Godinez finishing Andrade or taking her down and submitting her. Despite Andrade's recent losses, the Guru thinks she is a step above Godinez's level.
Zane picks Godinez, but with hesitation. He likes what he saw in her last fight against Polastri, where her hands looked sharp and her wrestling was well-integrated. He thinks Godinez is still developing and has improved, while Andrade has not changed technically. He notes that Andrade can be bullied by wrestlers and that Godinez is a good technical takedown artist. However, he is wary because Godinez has sometimes struggled to implement her wrestling against certain opponents.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 27 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 27 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 11 of 18 | 61% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 11 of 18 | 61% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jasudavicius (-298), Andrade (+240)
Round 1
Andrade (26-13, 17-11 UFC), the winningest female fighter in the company, would like nothing more than to add one more to her ledger. Standing in her way will be significant betting favorite and sentimental local favorite Jasudavicius (13-3, 7-2 UFC), who rides the longest win streak (four) of her career. Referee Jason Herzog clocks the flyweights in as they get down to business, starting off with a glove touch. Andrade takes the center of the Octagon, while Jasudavicius looks for a jab that is out of range early. Andrade rushes out with a right hand and then hops back, and she leans in with kicks on the inside and outside of the lead leg. Jasudavicius kicks her back once, and she tags the Brazilian with a one-two. Andrade smiles at her. Andrade tosses out a right hand and a low kick, and her foe catches her with a long right hand. When Andrade tries to strike back, Jasudavicius lifts her in the air and slams her down hard. Jasudavicius starts beating on the former strawweight champ, landing punches and taking her back. Andrade looks to crawl back up, and Jasudavicius is a 125-pound weight on her back dragging her down. Jasudavicius gets one hook in and starts fishing for a rear-naked choke. When there is no submission, Jasudavicius smacks her on both sides of the head.
Jasudavicius flattens Andrade out, and she wraps up a rear-naked choke that is tight as a drum. Andrade posts off and tries to grit it out, but there is nothing she can do at this point in that position. With her other hand, “Bate Estaca” taps out
, and the roof on the building practically blows off. The Canadian releases the grip and rushes to her corner to celebrate, who award her with her Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt as a prize for the career-best triumph. It was smooth sailing for the Canadian, who barely got touched by one of the most dangerous women to ever grace the cage.
The Official Result
Jasmine Jasudavicius def. Jessica Andrade R1 2:40 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo is confident in Jasmine Jasudavicius, calling it a tailor-made fight for her. He notes Jasmine is a wrestler with great hips and cardio, while Andrade is a bully without great takedown defense. He expresses minor concern about Jasmine's win streak and whether she's truly top-tier, but ultimately picks her. He mentions possibly parlaying her with Mike Malott.
Big Brady is confident in Jasudavicius, citing her size, strength, and ground game. He notes Andrade has poor takedown defense and looks like a white belt off her back. He predicts Jasudavicius will dominate on the ground, eventually securing a submission in the second round, possibly a front choke or crucifix TKO.
Connor picks Jasudavicius, citing her size advantage and clear game plan. He notes that Jasudavicius knows exactly how to get the fight to the clinch and ground, where she can maul opponents. He believes that if she capitalizes on one or two mistakes from Andrade in tie-ups, she can get on top and finish. Connor acknowledges Andrade's power but thinks Jasudavicius's resourcefulness and positional grappling will be the difference.
The host views this as a perfect stylistic matchup for the Canadian Jasudavicius, expecting her to avoid Andrade's power striking and use her size and reach advantage to take the fight to the ground. He predicts she will land big shots from top position and get a TKO victory.
The MMA Guru picks Jasudavicius, noting her recent dominance and improvement. He thinks Andrade loses presence at flyweight and can be overwhelmed by a scrappy, larger opponent. He expects Jasudavicius to mix striking and grappling, eventually securing takedowns and control, winning by decision.
Zane picks Andrade, believing she is mentally back on track after her last few fights. He thinks Andrade's power and aggression can overwhelm Jasudavicius on the feet, and that she can avoid getting taken down by staying confident in her punching. He acknowledges Jasudavicius's size and grappling threat but feels Andrade's ferocity and experience give her the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 0 | 50 of 140 | 35% | 62 of 153 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 117 of 208 | 56% | 119 of 211 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 33 of 74 | 44% | 33 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 37 of 69 | 53% | 37 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 0 | 15 of 47 | 31% | 21 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 47 of 65 | 72% | 49 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 50 of 140 | 35% | 33 of 114 | 13 of 20 | 4 of 6 | 48 of 136 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 117 of 208 | 56% | 67 of 151 | 38 of 45 | 12 of 12 | 106 of 197 | 9 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 24 of 56 | 42% | 16 of 46 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 33 of 74 | 44% | 14 of 53 | 12 of 14 | 7 of 7 | 32 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 11 of 37 | 29% | 9 of 31 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 37 of 69 | 53% | 20 of 47 | 15 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 64 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 15 of 47 | 31% | 8 of 37 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 47 of 65 | 72% | 33 of 51 | 11 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 60 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Natália Silva because she is very well-rounded, technical, and has power that lasts into the third round. He believes she is the better fighter and as long as she doesn't let Andrade bully her, she should win. He notes that Silva has beaten prospects and veterans alike.
Big Brady picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He is high on Silva, noting her impressive performances and striking. He acknowledges Andrade is a tough test and has revived her career, but believes Silva is the much better striker and may even drop Andrade. Brady thinks the odds are a bit disrespectful to Andrade but still favors Silva.
Cody believes Silva's size, speed, and counter-punching will be too much for Andrade, who struggles at 125 lbs against longer fighters. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal issues but respects her toughness. He thinks Silva can win by decision or knockout, but does not like the -300 price. He picks Silva but is not betting the moneyline.
Daniel is high on Natália Silva, calling her one of the best prospects in women's MMA. He praises her movement, takedown defense, athleticism, and the fact that she paid her dues on the regional scene. He thinks Andrade's charging-forward style is a bad matchup against Silva's speed and accuracy. While he respects Andrade's evolution, he believes Silva is catching her at a great time and picks her to win.
Silva is a technical striker with excellent lateral movement and accuracy. Andrade is a power puncher who struggles with fighters who stick and move. Silva can keep the fight at range and potentially land a knockout. The pick is Silva by decision, with a sprinkle on Silva by KO if odds are favorable.
Paul sees Silva as faster, bigger, and more technical, with a counter-striking style that can neutralize Andrade's blitzes. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal distractions (divorce, manager issues) but acknowledges her toughness. He believes Silva can win by decision or even knockout, but is wary of the -300 price. He leans Silva but does not love the moneyline.
The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva over Jéssica Andrade. He praises Silva's range control and ability to fight on the back foot. He notes Andrade has been outstruck by lesser fighters like Erin Blanchfield and struggles at flyweight. He highlights Silva's 11-fight win streak and her dominant UFC wins over Viviane Araujo, Andrea Lee, and others. He believes Silva is young (27) and still improving.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 89 of 180 | 49% | 124 of 220 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 82 of 228 | 35% | 94 of 241 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 49 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 42 of 86 | 48% | 42 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 35 of 107 | 32% | 35 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 33 of 71 | 46% | 33 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 31 of 85 | 36% | 32 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 89 of 180 | 49% | 35 of 110 | 14 of 18 | 40 of 52 | 79 of 165 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 4 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 82 of 228 | 35% | 70 of 207 | 9 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 77 of 220 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 14 of 23 | 60% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 14 | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 16 of 36 | 44% | 9 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 42 of 86 | 48% | 21 of 59 | 8 of 11 | 13 of 16 | 35 of 75 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 35 of 107 | 32% | 34 of 104 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 104 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 33 of 71 | 46% | 12 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 22 | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 31 of 85 | 36% | 27 of 75 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 28 of 81 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez as the better technical fighter who can keep Andrade at range with her boxing and length. He notes Andrade's bullying style can be effective but Rodriguez should piece her up if she avoids clinch exchanges. He calls the fight dead even odds-wise and says no bets are safe.
Cody is torn but leans Rodriguez. He notes Andrade's inconsistency due to personal issues (divorce) and her tendency to not wrestle. Rodriguez has a clear path: counter punching. Cody points out that Andrade runs forward aggressively, which could run into Rodriguez's right hand. He also mentions Rodriguez's takedown defense is decent (66%) and she has the skills to survive if taken down. Cody thinks this is the best women's underdog on the card and picks Rodriguez to spring the upset.
Connor picks Rodriguez, agreeing that Andrade's clinch deficiencies will be exploited. He notes that Rodriguez is a great clinch fighter and Andrade has poor posture and gets hit with knees. Connor also points out that Rodriguez is durable and does not slow down, while Andrade's confidence is fragile. He sees Rodriguez winning by controlling the clinch and landing strikes.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jéssica Andrade, citing her power, physicality, and grappling advantage. He believes Andrade can land takedowns and control Rodriguez on the ground, and that Rodriguez lacks the power to deter her. Vreeland acknowledges Rodriguez's striking but trusts Andrade's durability and aggression.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He discusses the title implications, saying the winner will be in line for a title shot. He notes that Andrade always walks forward and the fight is guaranteed to be good, but does not pick a winner.
Andrade should drag the fight to the ground and land ground and pound from top position. She also has power on the feet. Rodriguez has reach and height but will struggle to keep Andrade off her. Andrade wins on the scorecards.
Paul agrees, noting that Andrade doesn't wrestle enough and Rodriguez has a striking advantage. He points out that Andrade's recent wins over Mackenzie Dern and Lauren Murphy were impressive, but she has also looked terrible against Tatiana Suarez and Erin Blanchfield. Paul thinks Rodriguez's counter right hand is a real threat and that Andrade's aggressive style plays into it. He mentions that if you're looking for a dog with a clear path, Rodriguez is it.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by TKO, criticizing Jéssica Andrade for making Erin Blanchfield look competent. He believes Rodriguez will be patient, outpoint Andrade on the outside, and land knees and elbows in the clinch. He predicts Andrade will rush in and walk into strikes.
Zane picks Rodriguez, citing her clinch game and size advantage. He notes that Andrade is terrible in the clinch despite her strength, and Rodriguez is a powerful clinch fighter. Zane argues that Andrade's confidence is unreliable and that Rodriguez's durability and pressure will wear her down. He also mentions that Andrade's recent win over Mackenzie Dern may have been a confidence boost, but Rodriguez is a tougher matchup.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 4 | 53 of 107 | 49% | 53 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 49 of 114 | 42% | 50 of 115 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 1 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 3 | 26 of 57 | 45% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 25 of 57 | 43% | 25 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 53 of 107 | 49% | 27 of 76 | 7 of 9 | 19 of 22 | 43 of 90 | 6 of 12 | 4 of 5 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 49 of 114 | 42% | 38 of 100 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 47 of 109 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 27 of 50 | 54% | 10 of 29 | 5 of 7 | 12 of 14 | 18 of 37 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 5 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 24 of 57 | 42% | 15 of 46 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 26 of 57 | 45% | 17 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 25 of 53 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 25 of 57 | 43% | 23 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 54 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dern, citing her improved striking and elite BJJ. He notes Andrade's takedown defense is poor and Dern can pull guard or climb for submissions. He already bet a full unit on Dern at -177 and is confident she gets it done.
Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern to win by first-round submission. He believes Dern is improving her wrestling and striking, while Andrade is on a decline and doesn't seem to care anymore. He notes Andrade has been easily submitted recently by top grapplers, and Dern is the best grappler in the division. Brady thinks one takedown from Dern will end the fight quickly.
Cody picks Dern, noting Andrade's recent decline and disinterest in fights. He highlights Dern's improvements in striking and wrestling under Henry Cejudo, and her durability. He believes Dern can win on the feet or on the ground, and that Andrade's best path (wrestling) is nullified by Dern's BJJ.
James picks Mackenzie Dern to win, though he is annoyed at the -200 price. He thinks Andrade has stylistic advantages on the feet with more power, but Dern has durability, pace, and grappling to offset that. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to dominate and finish, and Andrade has been finished in her last three losses. He suggests playing Dern inside the distance rather than moneyline.
Andrade's power will be the difference. Dern has never been hit by someone with Andrade's power and will struggle to close distance. Andrade will stuff takedowns and make Dern pay every time she crashes the pocket. Expects Andrade to land big strikes and potentially find a knockout victory in the first or second round. The line at +165 is a value due to recency bias from Dern's win over Hill.
Paul agrees, emphasizing Andrade's regression and Dern's upward trajectory. He notes Andrade has looked flat and disinterested, while Dern is coming into her prime with improved cardio and focus. He thinks Dern wins wherever the fight goes, and that Andrade's wrestling won't be enough.
The MMA Guru picks Mackenzie Dern, believing Andrade is on a losing streak and has lost confidence. He notes Dern's improved grappling and boxing, citing her dominant win over Angela Hill. He predicts Dern will submit Andrade in round two, as Andrade has been vulnerable on her back recently.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 13 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 25 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 20 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 11 of 29 | 37% | 2 of 14 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 23 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 23 of 49 | 46% | 3 of 20 | 17 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 36 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 11 of 27 | 40% | 2 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 19 of 43 | 44% | 3 of 18 | 14 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 30 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is extremely confident in Tatiana Suarez, calling her a lock and saying she should be -1000. He highlights Suarez's high-level wrestling, averaging over six takedowns per 15 minutes, and her submission win over Montana De la Rosa after a four-year layoff. He notes that Andrade relies on bullying and power, but Suarez won't be bullied and will get takedowns. Angelo suggests parlaying Suarez before the line moves and expects a submission win, possibly under 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady is a big Andrade fan but thinks this is a terrible matchup for her. He notes Andrade's defensive grappling is poor, as seen against Valentina and Blanchfield, and suspects she may be focused on OnlyFans and just showing up for a paycheck. He believes Suarez will take her down easily and dominate on the mat, finishing her in the first round. He is surprised money is coming in on Andrade.
Cody is confident Suarez will get takedowns with ease and likely secure a submission, referencing Andrade's poor guard retention and tendency to quit when taken down. He notes Suarez's full camp and Andrade's short notice, but acknowledges Andrade's danger on the feet. He likes Suarez by submission at +125.
Daniel Levi picks Tatiana Suarez, emphasizing her wrestling and physicality as a nightmare matchup for Andrade. He notes Andrade's durability has waned and that she gives up her back to get up, which Suarez can exploit. Levi expects Suarez to get a takedown that Andrade can't escape, leading to a finish via ground and pound or rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Andrade's power and offensive submissions but believes Suarez's relentless wrestling will be decisive.
James is uncertain due to Suarez's long layoff and potential athletic decline seen in her last fight. He acknowledges Suarez should dominate if she's anywhere near her old self, but there are red flags. He picks Suarez to win but wouldn't bet her at -400; he'd bet inside the distance for either fighter.
Suarez is the far superior wrestler and should get the fight to the ground easily. From top position, it's a matter of time before she finds a finish, either by submission or TKO. I like the inside the distance prop around -150, or the under 2.5 rounds if skeptical. If Suarez can't get the takedown, she might look lost on the feet, but I think the fight ends under 2.5 rounds with Suarez winning by the second round.
Paul agrees with the submission pick, citing Andrade's history of tapping quickly when taken down (e.g., Blanchfield fight). He notes Suarez's wrestling is elite but has ring rust and a poor striking performance against Montana De la Rosa. However, he believes Suarez will smother Andrade and get a rear-naked choke late in the second round.
The host is very high on Tatiana Suarez, calling her the future champion. He believes her wrestling and grappling will dominate Andrade, similar to the Blanchfield fight. He predicts a submission win before the end of the second round. He notes Andrade is dangerous with power but Suarez is naturally larger and has a huge grappling advantage. He sees Suarez as a parlay piece but warns about women's MMA variance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 12 of 32 | 37% | 5 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 26 of 36 | 72% | 12 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 12 of 32 | 37% | 5 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 26 of 36 | 72% | 12 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Jéssica Andrade but with very low confidence, admitting he has flip-flopped multiple times. He thinks Andrade's raw power and bullying style can close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she can pound away. However, he acknowledges Yan Xiaonan is the better striker with clean technique and composure. Angelo notes that if Andrade can't bully her way in, she'll be a step behind on the feet. He emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick.
Big Brady picks Andrade, citing her wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes Yan Xiaonan was dominated by Carla Esparza, who has no finishing ability, so Andrade's takedowns and top control will be overwhelming. He believes Andrade is super strong for the division, has great cardio, and will take Yan down at will. He predicts a second-round TKO via ground and pound.
Cody thinks Andrade should win on paper with her strength, power, and experience, but is concerned about her recent performance against Erin Blanchfield where she looked burnt out and quit. He notes she's been fighting for a decade and may be mentally done. He leans toward Andrade but says he doesn't trust her at -200 and might take Yan as an underdog if he needs one later.
Connor also picks Andrade, agreeing that Yan's volume won't be enough against Andrade's power and durability. He notes that Andrade is a rare power puncher in the division and that Yan's awkward kicks and jabs won't deter her. Connor mentions that Yan's best wins are against opponents who couldn't match her output, but Andrade is different.
The host picks Jéssica Andrade, believing her strength, top pressure, and ability to drag the fight to the ground will be decisive. He acknowledges Yan Xiaonan's striking and submission defense but thinks Andrade's power and grappling will overwhelm Yan. He expects Andrade to get a ground and pound finish.
Paul got burned betting on Andrade against Blanchfield and is wary of the -200 price. He notes that Andrade's takedowns could be effective, as MacKenzie Dern had success taking Yan down. He thinks Andrade gets back on track but the price is too high after her last performance, so he picks her but won't bet.
The Guru picks Andrade, believing she won't be outgrappled by Yan and that her pressure and body shots will be key. He notes Yan has been outgrappled before (by Carla Esparza) and that Andrade's size at strawweight is dangerous. He predicts a TKO in the second round via body shots and punches against the cage.
Zane picks Andrade, noting that Yan's success comes against opponents who can't make her pay for her volume, but Andrade has the physicality and power to do so. He points out that Andrade doesn't gas out and that Yan's game plan of stuffing takedowns and outworking won't work against Andrade. Zane compares Yan's style to Joanna Jedrzejczyk but says Yan is not Joanna.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 53 of 143 | 37% | 56 of 147 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 51 of 120 | 42% | 53 of 124 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 40 of 106 | 37% | 43 of 110 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 44 of 100 | 44% | 46 of 104 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 | |
| 2 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 7 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield | 53 of 143 | 37% | 28 of 107 | 5 of 16 | 20 of 20 | 50 of 137 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 51 of 120 | 42% | 38 of 105 | 2 of 4 | 11 of 11 | 50 of 117 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erin Blanchfield | 40 of 106 | 37% | 22 of 80 | 4 of 12 | 14 of 14 | 37 of 100 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 44 of 100 | 44% | 32 of 86 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 43 of 97 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Erin Blanchfield | 13 of 37 | 35% | 6 of 27 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jéssica Andrade | 7 of 20 | 35% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Andrade, even on short notice. He highlights Andrade's technical improvement in her last fight against Lauren Murphy, where she showed precision rather than just bullying. He believes Andrade's BJJ black belt and experience against top competition will neutralize Blanchfield's grappling. Angelo notes the line moved from -190 to -170 and he placed a two-unit bet at -150. He dismisses comparisons to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting Shevchenko uses judo while Blanchfield uses wrestling, which Andrade can defend.
Big Brady thinks this is too soon for Blanchfield, who has only beaten lower-level competition like Molly McCann. He notes that Andrade only gets dominated by elite grapplers like Valentina Shevchenko, and Blanchfield is not on that level yet. He worries about Blanchfield's takedown success, as she was 0-for-4 against JJ Aldrich. He predicts Andrade will win by knockout, likely in the second round, as Blanchfield has nothing for her on the feet.
Cody initially liked Blanchfield at plus money due to Andrade taking the fight on short notice and Blanchfield's suffocating style, but as the line tightened he shifted to Andrade. He notes Andrade is a proven commodity with better striking and five-round experience, and that she wouldn't take a fight she couldn't win. However, he acknowledges Blanchfield's grappling threat and says he wants to watch weigh-ins before betting.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Andrade is a huge step up for Blanchfield. He notes that Blanchfield's striking is very undeveloped, especially her kicks, and that Andrade's power will be a shock. He also points out that Blanchfield struggled with Aldrich's counter striking and maneuvering, and Andrade is a much more physical and powerful version of that. Connor sees the fight as too much too soon for Blanchfield.
Jacob is a self-proclaimed Blanchfield hater and picks Andrade confidently. He criticizes Blanchfield's lack of a plan B when things go wrong, citing her fight against JJ Aldrich where she was dominated until a Hail Mary guillotine. Jacob believes Andrade is a better striker and will stuff takedowns, leading to Blanchfield being embarrassed. He compares it to Whittaker vs Vettori and Emmett vs Rodriguez, where one-dimensional wrestlers were exposed. He is not worried about short notice because Andrade wouldn't take the fight if she wasn't ready.
Andrade's relentless pressure, power, and strength will be too much for Blanchfield, who struggled with takedowns against JJ Aldrich and may not be ready for this step up. Andrade's durability and takedown defense should keep her safe, and she will eventually land a knockout, likely in the third or fourth round.
Paul likes Andrade, citing her recent performance against Lauren Murphy where she looked great and nearly finished her. He questions the comparison to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting that outside of Shevchenko, no one has easily taken Andrade down. He struggles to get behind Blanchfield at the current price, calling it a big step up in competition. He says if the line keeps moving toward Blanchfield, he'll be forced to jump on Andrade.
The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade, stating she hits different and is a step above other flyweights except Shevchenko. He believes Andrade's power will break Blanchfield's nose early, forcing panic takedowns. He recalls Blanchfield's fight with JJ Aldridge where she struggled before getting a guillotine, and thinks Andrade will be too much. He notes Andrade is a 2-to-1 favorite and calls those odds good, predicting a first-round TKO.
Zane picks Andrade because Blanchfield's striking is still raw and relies on pressure and volume, but she struggles against skilled or physically imposing opponents. Andrade is both, with power that Blanchfield has never faced. Blanchfield's takedown entries are not clean enough to consistently get Andrade down, and Andrade's speed and power will be overwhelming. Zane notes that Blanchfield is a good prospect but not complete enough to win this fight.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Jéssica Andrade but with very low confidence, admitting he has flip-flopped multiple times. He thinks Andrade's raw power and bullying style can close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she can pound away. However, he acknowledges Yan Xiaonan is the better striker with clean technique and composure. Angelo notes that if Andrade can't bully her way in, she'll be a step behind on the feet. He emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick.
Big Brady picks Andrade, citing her wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes Yan Xiaonan was dominated by Carla Esparza, who has no finishing ability, so Andrade's takedowns and top control will be overwhelming. He believes Andrade is super strong for the division, has great cardio, and will take Yan down at will. He predicts a second-round TKO via ground and pound.
Cody thinks Andrade should win on paper with her strength, power, and experience, but is concerned about her recent performance against Erin Blanchfield where she looked burnt out and quit. He notes she's been fighting for a decade and may be mentally done. He leans toward Andrade but says he doesn't trust her at -200 and might take Yan as an underdog if he needs one later.
Connor also picks Andrade, agreeing that Yan's volume won't be enough against Andrade's power and durability. He notes that Andrade is a rare power puncher in the division and that Yan's awkward kicks and jabs won't deter her. Connor mentions that Yan's best wins are against opponents who couldn't match her output, but Andrade is different.
The host picks Jéssica Andrade, believing her strength, top pressure, and ability to drag the fight to the ground will be decisive. He acknowledges Yan Xiaonan's striking and submission defense but thinks Andrade's power and grappling will overwhelm Yan. He expects Andrade to get a ground and pound finish.
Paul got burned betting on Andrade against Blanchfield and is wary of the -200 price. He notes that Andrade's takedowns could be effective, as MacKenzie Dern had success taking Yan down. He thinks Andrade gets back on track but the price is too high after her last performance, so he picks her but won't bet.
The Guru picks Andrade, believing she won't be outgrappled by Yan and that her pressure and body shots will be key. He notes Yan has been outgrappled before (by Carla Esparza) and that Andrade's size at strawweight is dangerous. He predicts a TKO in the second round via body shots and punches against the cage.
Zane picks Andrade, noting that Yan's success comes against opponents who can't make her pay for her volume, but Andrade has the physicality and power to do so. He points out that Andrade doesn't gas out and that Yan's game plan of stuffing takedowns and outworking won't work against Andrade. Zane compares Yan's style to Joanna Jedrzejczyk but says Yan is not Joanna.
Yan hard to put away , what else is there to say. Both have fought great competition nothing exciting