vs
+188 -220
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 9"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Matt Frevola
3.3 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.76 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
2.34 TD Avg
41.0% TD Acc.
40.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Drew Dober
4.48 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
4.33 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.61 TD Avg
16.0% TD Acc.
58.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Matt Frevola
Moneyline
FanDuel +188
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
BetRivers +1050
Decision
BetRivers +475
Drew Dober
Moneyline
Caesars -220
KO/TKO
BetRivers -114
Submission
BetRivers +1700
Decision
FanDuel +550
Matt Frevola - Fight History
LOSS vs Kyle Nelson
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyle Nelson 1 63 of 135 46% 92 of 170 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:11
Matt Frevola 0 43 of 136 31% 60 of 155 2 of 3 66% 0 1 1:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyle Nelson 1 23 of 55 41% 30 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Matt Frevola 0 15 of 54 27% 19 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:01
2 Kyle Nelson 0 29 of 57 50% 32 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Matt Frevola 0 21 of 69 30% 22 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
3 Kyle Nelson 0 11 of 23 47% 30 of 46 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:43
Matt Frevola 0 7 of 13 53% 19 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyle Nelson 63 of 135 46% 41 of 103 14 of 23 8 of 9 46 of 106 7 of 14 10 of 15
Matt Frevola 43 of 136 31% 23 of 103 10 of 20 10 of 13 39 of 129 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyle Nelson 23 of 55 41% 17 of 47 4 of 6 2 of 2 12 of 37 1 of 3 10 of 15
Matt Frevola 15 of 54 27% 7 of 37 4 of 10 4 of 7 13 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Kyle Nelson 29 of 57 50% 18 of 39 6 of 12 5 of 6 27 of 51 2 of 6 0 of 0
Matt Frevola 21 of 69 30% 13 of 58 3 of 6 5 of 5 20 of 66 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Kyle Nelson 11 of 23 47% 6 of 17 4 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 18 4 of 5 0 of 0
Matt Frevola 7 of 13 53% 3 of 8 3 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kyle Nelson vs. Matt Frevola
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Frevola (-115); Nelson (+100)

Round 1
To kick off the main card now, two flamethrowing lightweights in desperate need of a win will collide, and referee Dan Miragliotta better don his proverbial hard hat when these two let loose. The finish rates for Nelson (16-6-1, 4-5-1 UFC) and Frevola (11-5-1, 5-5-1 UFC) do not do justice what they have accomplished—and suffered—in the cage. A quick fist bump opens the melee.
Frevola starts things off with a few punches and a leg kick, and the Canadian counters with a right hand over the top. Frevola fires off the same combination, and he stays out of danger from the subsequent right hand aimed at his melon. Frevola swings up a couple head kicks that slide off the guard, and he races in with a looping right hand. Nelson drives him back with a sharp left, and he stabs his foot to Frevola’s torso. When Frevola spins, Nelson sits down on a right hand counter. Both fighters end up slipping on one another and climb back to their feet sheepishly, and it is Frevola who marches down his man and swings two hearty overhand rights. Nelson tanks them well but does not give the American much to think about coming back, allowing Frevola to open up with big, looping strikes. Nelson jabs him back, and slaps “The Steamrolla” in the chin with the ball of his foot.
Frevola advances recklessly, scoring a punch but taking a hard low kick on the way out. Frevola bashes the Canadian in the brainstem with a high kick, and he pump-fakes a knee to hurl a right hand at his man. Nelson sticks his fist out to catch Frevola coming in, so Frevola ducks under, lifts Nelson in the air and slams him down like a sack of potatoes. Nelson hits his knees and looks to stand, so Frevola counters with a guillotine choke setup and a knee to the ribs. Nelson gives his back up, and Frevola takes it and then jumps off so he does not slide off and end up in the wrong spot. Leaning on Nelson, he exudes heavy pressure and knees him in the guts. Nelson spins him around and smacks him with an uppercut, only for Frevola to meet it with a knee. Nelson wings a huge right hand that shakes Frevola up, and this results in a furious brawl where Nelson catches his man a second time and puts him on the canvas. Nelson starts hammering Frevola with his free right hand, and as damage mounts, Miragliotta starts to lean in. The Canadian keeps clubbing Frevola with his same fist again and again, and it appears that Frevola is knocked out and knocked back into consciousness. Miragliotta steps in with seconds to spare, and the fight is over. Until it isn’t. In what may be a worse failure of officiating than the recent Magny-Matthews UFC Perth debacle, somehow the fight is still on, and Frevola gets a minute to recover on his stool. The fight, somehow, continues.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Nelson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Nelson

Round 2
The arena is filled with chants cursing out Miragliotta for stealing a knockout win from their fighter, and Round 2 is upon us. Frevola is still stung from the concussive blows he received at the end of the first round, and Nelson takes advantage of that with crisp combinations and a head kick. Every second Frevola remains in this match that should already be over is one more second that he could steal a win. Frevola gathers his thoughts and replies back from the offense with some body work. Nelson has the upper hand with Frevola still wobbled, and he chases him around the Octagon and connects hard on him. Frevola scampers away, so the Canadian gives chase.
Frevola starts to get his bearings more as time progresses, with Nelson’s power appearing to fade a bit, and Frevola does work to the midsection. Nelson chews up the front leg with his kicks, and he stings Frevola with power punches. Frevola gets more comfortable and launches high-amplitude attacks at his adversary. Nelson beats Frevola to the punch frequently and repeatedly, popping Frevola with straight punches and distant kicks. Once more, the round ends, even though this fight should already be over given that the replay clearly showed three seconds on the clock at the end of the first round when Miragliotta put hands on the fighters to separate them. According to the referee, he heard the horn, but it never blew. It does this time.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nelson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nelson

Round 3
Nelson, with a full head of steam, wants to punish his opponent for still being in this match all this time. Brutalizing the body like a side of beef, Nelson kicks him again and again as Frevola doubles over. Nelson’s kicks open up one to the head, and he rocks Frevola badly. Frevola stumbles around, and Nelson pops him in the chops with a front kick and several power punches. The New Yorker is tough as nails but has been knocked out at least once tonight and has likely received a great deal of brain damage from this mess of a fight. Frevola steels himself, takes everything Nelson throws at him and tries to swing back valiantly. Frevola’s swings have a lot less mustard on them, but he breaks things up by shooting in for a takedown and putting the Canadian on his back.
Nelson has a lot more energy than his adversary, allowing him to scramble out of the bad position and work to his feet. Nelson batters Frevola to the wire, and he uses his momentum to drag Frevola to the floor. Nelson sits up on top in a high mount position, smacking Frevola around any time he can find an opening, and as he does, Frevola miraculously manages to sneak out the back door. The two are slippery and fatigued, to say the least, but they still throw punches and elbows at one another. Nelson manages to turn his man over, and when Frevola is about to get up, Nelson mat returns him. Nelson laces his foe’s legs beneath his own, and Frevola scrambles with every bit of energy he last left. Standing up at the 10-second clapper, Frevola spins with an elbow to ding Nelson. Nelson retreats, and the fight finally ends for real this time. It might be time to have a serious conversation about the state of officiating in our sport, as fighters are being robbed of their livelihoods in new, frustrating ways that seemed not to happen until recently.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (30-26 Nelson)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (30-27 Nelson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (30-26 Nelson)

The Official Result
Kyle Nelson def. Matt Frevola via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Matt Frevola

Angelo leans Matt Frevola as the better fighter with good wrestling and power, but acknowledges Kyle Nelson's durability and power. He expects a finish either way and calls it a 50/50 fight. He picks Frevola but with low confidence.

Fight likely ends inside distance
"I pick Matt Frevola just because he's the better fighter."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Big Brady doubts Frevola will wrestle and expects a stand-up brawl. He questions both fighters' chins but thinks Nelson has the better chin and power. He predicts Nelson lands a big shot in the first round, picking a first-round KO.

Nelson by KO in round 1
"I'm going to take Kyle Nelson for the slight upset to land that big shot. I just don't trust the chin of Matt Fvolola. I think it's going to be a Kyle Nelson KO1."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Cody picks Frevola, citing his wrestling advantage and power. He notes Nelson is moving up from 145 and has struggled against wrestlers. Frevola can take Nelson down and ground-and-pound. Cody believes Frevola's size and grappling will be decisive, but admits low conviction.

"I'm going to go with Matt Fravola. Uh yeah, I'm not an under one and a half kind of guy. This looks like an under one and a half kind of fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Connor picks Nelson, agreeing that Frevola has shown bad signs recently. He notes that Frevola has not looked like he wants to fight in his last few outings. Connor believes Nelson's composure and range fighting will be effective, but acknowledges that Nelson has a history of melting down. He thinks Nelson should be a slight favorite.

Odds: Nelson opened at -170, currently -105; Frevola opened at +145, currently -115.
"I think Nelson should be a little bit more of a favorite, frankly."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

James favors Frevola due to his wrestling, cardio, and natural lightweight frame, while Nelson is moving up from featherweight. He acknowledges Frevola's chin issues but believes his wrestling and pace will overwhelm Nelson. James predicts a decision win for Frevola.

"I'm going to take Matt Fravola in this fight. My prediction is going to be a decision win. You know, because Kyle Nelson is a tough guy and I feel like Matt Fravola to win, he's probably going to need …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Matt Frevola

The host thinks this fight could be a car crash, but if Frevola plays it safely and avoids Nelson's power, he can easily take the fight to the ground and rinse and repeat that style. He expects Frevola to win by submission or on the scorecards.

win by submission or decision
"If Fvola plays it safely and avoids the big power of Nelson, I think we can see Fvola easily take this fight to the ground."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Paul picks Nelson, but with zero conviction. He notes both fighters love to brawl and have power. Paul thinks it's a pick'em and expects a finish. He leans Nelson but says it's a coin flip.

"gun to my head, I'll I'll say Kyle Nelson, but like zero conviction here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola over Kyle Nelson. He acknowledges both are coming off losses but believes Frevola's competition has been tougher and his good moments are better. He thinks Frevola can mix in grappling and takedowns, and that Nelson is too rigid and simple. He predicts a decision win, 30-27.

decision win 30-27
"I'm going to go with Matt Frevola getting this one done. By decision, 30-27."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Zane picks Nelson, citing his improved composure and range fighting. He notes that Nelson has become a cautious, consistent range fighter with good defense. Zane points out that Frevola has looked gun-shy and lacks a fight outside the pocket. He believes Nelson can win by using his jab and staying at range.

Odds: Nelson opened at -170, currently -105; Frevola opened at +145, currently -115.
"So yeah, I'm taking Nelson as well, but it's an interesting fight."
LOSS vs Farès Ziam
KO (knee) R3 2:59 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Farès Ziam 1 58 of 94 61% 69 of 107 4 of 4 100% 1 1 4:43
Matt Frevola 0 16 of 59 27% 25 of 72 1 of 3 33% 1 1 2:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Farès Ziam 0 18 of 29 62% 24 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:20
Matt Frevola 0 9 of 22 40% 12 of 27 1 of 3 33% 1 1 1:49
2 Farès Ziam 0 34 of 55 61% 37 of 60 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:10
Matt Frevola 0 7 of 32 21% 12 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
3 Farès Ziam 1 6 of 10 60% 8 of 12 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:13
Matt Frevola 0 0 of 5 0% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Farès Ziam 58 of 94 61% 44 of 77 11 of 14 3 of 3 45 of 75 7 of 9 6 of 10
Matt Frevola 16 of 59 27% 7 of 44 7 of 12 2 of 3 9 of 49 7 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Farès Ziam 18 of 29 62% 12 of 22 5 of 6 1 of 1 13 of 21 4 of 4 1 of 4
Matt Frevola 9 of 22 40% 2 of 14 6 of 7 1 of 1 6 of 17 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Farès Ziam 34 of 55 61% 28 of 47 4 of 6 2 of 2 30 of 48 1 of 3 3 of 4
Matt Frevola 7 of 32 21% 5 of 25 1 of 5 1 of 2 3 of 27 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Farès Ziam 6 of 10 60% 4 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 2 of 2 2 of 2
Matt Frevola 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Matt Frevola vs. Fares Ziam

Round 1
The UFC chose violence in practically every one of these main card tilts, and the carnage starts in the lightweight division. While he has earned all five of his UFC wins at the hands of the judges, Ziam (15-4, 5-2 UFC) is no stranger to the “just scrap” mentality. Frevola (11-4-1, 5-4-1 UFC) would love nothing more than for the two to go buckwild, attacking with everything they have to let the chips fall where they may. Referee Loic Pora steels himself for just such an encounter, as “The Steamrolla” has not left the first round in his last five trips to the Octagon. There is a speedy glove touch before fists fly. Frevola takes the center of the cage, bobbing to the side to let a front kick fly past him. Frevola swings his way into a takedown setup, and this results in a clinch with a number of knees traded on both sides. The Frenchman bails on the tie-up, avoiding two looping hooks to pay Frevola back with a hard overhand right. Frevola digs deep and shoots for a double, switching to a single and putting “Smile Killer” to his seat. Ziam stays defensive with his guard, not letting Frevola get off any offense, until he sits up. Frevola jumps into a guillotine choke, and he rolls to full mount as Ziam is briefly concerned about the submission and thinks about tapping. Instead, Ziam rides it out, and Frevola rides heavily on top while looking for offense. Ziam turns to his side, and Frevola snatches up an armbar. Ziam shifts through it, and Frevola responds with a triangle choke. Ziam lets him have it with three thunderous right hands, forcing Frevola to spin to his side and try to stand back up. Frevola gets his back to the cage, and he locks his hands around the waist to hurl Ziam to the floor. Ziam lands on his knees, stands up and tags Frevola with a right hand. A second power right hand from Ziam stings the New Yorker, and Frevola smiles and tries to go out guns blazing. “The Steamrolla” misses with a huge right hook, and he kicks his way off the fence to launch a Superman punch. Ziam dodges and counters with a right hand, and he scoops an uppercut to the body before hooking up the clinch and kneeing Frevola in the belly. Frevola gives him a pair of knees back to think about, and a third forces a break. Ziam pounds Frevola in the face with a left hand, and he digs hard to the body before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam

Round 2
Frevola comes out of his corner loaded for bear, and he lobs two right hands at the Frenchman to reintroduce himself. Ziam jumps back at him with a knee, and Frevola grins and waves his arms in the air. Ziam pins a one-two on the chin, and he doubles up on a jab and goes over the top with a right. Two punches from Ziam lead to a low kick, and he intercepts an advancing Frevola with a left hand. Frevola overswings with bombs, and Ziam is composed and light on his feet to dodge a spinning wheel kick. Frevola just misses with a right hand from his knees, and Ziam is there to jab him up and move well enough to not get tagged with anything of merit. Frevola slings his way into the clinch, and he drops down for a double. Ziam defends it and hacks Frevola in the face with an elbow to force a break, only for Frevola to belt him with an overhand right. Frevola backs Ziam against the wall and unloads with a few punches, and Ziam is unafraid to engage in response. Ziam hammers his man with an elbow, and he uses another to get in close and tie “The Steamrolla” up. Getting turned to the wall, Ziam stays busy with knees until he spins out and elbows Frevola. Frevola comes out swinging, but Ziam sees the strikes coming, dips and pops Frevola in the temple with a left hand. Frevola circles into a head kick and walks into a jab, and he eats three punches while missing with his own. Ziam splits the guard with a jab, and a one-two keeps Frevola guessing as Ziam closes in on him. Ziam tosses Frevola to the floor, where he gets hold of his back and fishes for a rear-naked choke with only one hook in. Frevola guts it out, fights off a subsequent neck crank and whips an elbow from behind his back. The round ends with Ziam landing shots to the side of Frevola’s dome.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam

Round 3
Frevola assumes the center of the cage in the final round, likely down on the scorecards with plenty of damage on his face. He leads off with an overhand right, and when Ziam avoids it, he goes for another. Ziam sticks him with a jab, charges at him and hits him with a jump knee. Ziam rushes forward and sweeps the New Yorker off his feet, and he pushes Frevola against the wall when Frevola stands. Ziam succeeds in hitting a mat return, dragging “The Steamrolla” away from the fencing. Frevola scrambles, and Ziam follows him and keeps him stuck on his knees. Frevola bursts back to his feet, and Ziam pulls him down to the floor and briefly takes his back. Frevola spins around and works back to his feet, but Ziam lifts him in the air with a single and puts him down like a little brother. Ziam’s hands are clasped around the waist, with Frevola trying to fight the grip but getting tossed around. Frevola spins around, desperate to get out of this bad spot and gain some space.
Ziam holds on with his right hand, pulling Frevola’s head down into the meanest knee one could ever see. His mouthpiece sent flying, Frevola collapses lifelessly to the mat, out well before his head clatters off the mat. Ziam does not need to do this, but before Pora can pull him off, he hammers Frevola with a few standing-to-ground punches to further seal the deal.
The French faithful erupt in favor of their victorious fighter, who has just authored one of the most brutal knockouts of the year. It takes some time, but Frevola manages to come to, getting to his stool and eventually back to his feet, as many witnessing it breathing a sigh of relief. Ziam has the crowd in the palm of his hands, and he calmly thanks his friends and family as he drinks in what will almost certainly be a $50,000-winning performance.

The Official Result
Fares Ziam def. Matt Frevola R3 2:59 via KO (Knee)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Angelo picks Farès Ziam as an underdog, surprised he is not the favorite. He believes Ziam's ability to avoid danger and fight a slow, technical fight will frustrate Frevola, who has cardio issues and is not technical enough to win a slow fight. He expects a boring fight where Ziam points his way to victory.

"I'm surprised that Farès is not the favorite... Farès Ziam wins this fight... it's going to be boring, that's how he's going to win."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Matt Frevola

Big Brady picks Matt Frevola by decision, expecting him to use wrestling after seeing Ziam get taken down seven times by Claudio Puelles. He notes Frevola has better striking than Puelles and can mix in takedowns. He is concerned about Frevola's chin but thinks he can win a decision if he wrestles.

Frevola by decision
"give me fola fola by decision I don't think it's going to be like some of his la la like his last five fights have all finished in the first round I think he might go back to uh some …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Cody picks Frevola as an underdog, citing Ziam's poor takedown defense (67%) and Frevola's strong wrestling from a high-level camp. He notes that Ziam has been taken down repeatedly by grapplers, and Frevola's path to victory is to take him down and control him. Frevola's durability is a concern, but Ziam lacks one-punch power.

"I'll take fola because he's the underdog"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Connor picks Frevola because he believes Frevola's pressure, scrambling, and power will overwhelm Ziam, who is a cautious range striker with poor wrestling. He notes that Frevola is dangerous in the pocket and can take down opponents, while Ziam tends to struggle when crowded. Connor also points out that Ziam lacks knockout power at this level and has been submitted by grapplers. He sees Frevola winning by decision or late finish.

Odds: Frevola +112, Ziam -124. Connor expresses surprise that Frevola is an underdog, suggesting he should be a decided favorite.
"It's the right fight to bounce back for Fervola."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Daniel Vreeland picks Matt Frevola to win, believing the line should be flipped. He thinks Frevola hits harder, has better wrestling, and can finish Ziam by KO or submission. He notes Ziam's takedown defense issues and that Frevola has fought taller opponents before. He sees value in Frevola at plus odds.

"I think F win this fight I think the line should be flipped"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

JP picks Matt Frevola because he thinks Farès Ziam is 'cheeks' and doesn't use his reach advantage well. He notes Frevola is a dog who comes forward and throws bombs. He also mentions Frevola is 34 but still has enough left. He thinks Frevola can get inside and land big shots.

"I'm picking fola Steamroller I'm picking the steamroller I can't pick the other guy I think the other guy's cheeks"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Paul agrees, emphasizing that Frevola needs to use his wrestling to win, not chase bonuses. He notes that Ziam's takedown defense is a major red flag, and Frevola's camp (Serra-Longo) has a winning blueprint. Paul predicts Frevola by decision.

"fora for vola by decision is where I'm at on this as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola over Farès Ziam, citing Frevola's takedown entries and training partners. He criticizes Ziam's losses to Terrence McKinney and lack of finishes. He predicts Frevola will set up takedowns and then catch Ziam for a late first or early second-round KO.

late first round or early second round KO
"I'm going to go Rola get this one done I'm actually going to say he puts the thought of the takedown in zam's mind a little bit by getting a few of them that Zam might get up from and …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Zane picks Frevola because he believes Frevola's pressure and grappling will be too much for Ziam, who is a cautious striker with poor wrestling defense. He notes that Frevola can start slow and warm up, then take over with his pace and power. Zane also points out that Ziam has been submitted by grapplers and lacks the power to keep Frevola off him. He sees Frevola winning a decision or possibly finishing Ziam late.

Odds: Frevola +112, Ziam -124. Zane agrees Frevola should be a favorite.
"Feels like a fight where Fervola can start slow and be cautious and warm up and then start making Zhiyam scramble..."
KO (head kick) R1 1:31 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Benoît Saint Denis 0 5 of 9 55% 7 of 12 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:25
Matt Frevola 1 6 of 11 54% 10 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Benoît Saint Denis 0 5 of 9 55% 7 of 12 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:25
Matt Frevola 1 6 of 11 54% 10 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Benoît Saint Denis 5 of 9 55% 2 of 6 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Matt Frevola 6 of 11 54% 3 of 7 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Benoît Saint Denis 5 of 9 55% 2 of 6 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Matt Frevola 6 of 11 54% 3 of 7 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Angelo picks Frevola, citing his confidence, win streak, and fighting in New York. He acknowledges Saint Denis is tough but thinks Frevola can sneak out a win. He is watching the line movement and may bet if Frevola becomes a bigger dog.

watching line movement for potential bet on Frevola moneyline
"Matt faola is going to be the pick and I'm keeping an eye on the line movement tracker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by first-round knockout. He thinks Saint Denis has more avenues to win, including dangerous grappling and power. He worries about Frevola's durability, noting he has been knocked out quickly before. Brady expects a war where Saint Denis lands something big and finishes Frevola.

Saint Denis by first-round knockout
"I got to pick Benoît Saint Denis here, I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Cody picks Saint Denis but is hesitant, acknowledging Frevola's skills and the value at +185. He worries about Frevola's chin, noting he's been knocked out by lesser punchers. He thinks Saint Denis has better durability and will win a brawl, but feels like a 'coward' for not taking the dog.

"I think I'm going to go with benan stt but I feel like a [ __ ] feel like a cow a little bit"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

James picks Benoît Saint Denis but is hesitant, noting the line is too wide at -230. He thinks it should be around -140. He believes BSD has more tools on the feet, including body kicks, and has cardio and knockout upside. However, he acknowledges Frevola is live as an underdog, having won three swinging contests in a row, and BSD is hittable and was knocked out by Zaleski. He expects a swinging match and considers the under 1.5 rounds but is not enticed at -150.

Under 1.5 rounds at -150 considered but not bet; thinks line should be -140.
"I'm gonna pick Benoît Saint Denis to get a first round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Saint Denis will wear on Frevola with his aggressive wrestling and grappling. He will exchange in the pocket to open up takedowns, then take Frevola to the mat and smash him from top position. Expects a finish by TKO or submission in the second or third round. Frevola's durability is a question mark.

finish by TKO or submission in round 2 or 3
"I'm expecting him to do the same thing here against fola as he wears on him and then eventually takes him to the mat and smashes him from that top position getting a finish by TKO or submission in the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Paul picks Saint Denis, citing his durability and toughness from his military background. He thinks Saint Denis can take damage and make the fight ugly, while Frevola has questionable durability. He notes Saint Denis's grappling and strength at 155 will be key.

"I don't know if Ben W St Denise getting knocked out by anybody outside of the top five"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola as his underdog of the card. He thinks Frevola has nasty power and good wrestling, and that Saint Denis leaves his chin open when swinging against the cage. He predicts Frevola will catch Saint Denis with a left hook, similar to his finishes of Dober and Aitar, and win by KO at the end of round one.

underdog pick, KO in round 1
"I'm taking him as an underdog my Underdog of the card is Matt fola... I think Matt fola is going to catch benoir St Denise trying to swing on him against the cage"
WIN vs Drew Dober
TKO (punches) R1 4:08 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Frevola 0 20 of 59 33% 20 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Drew Dober 1 35 of 75 46% 39 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Frevola 0 20 of 59 33% 20 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Drew Dober 1 35 of 75 46% 39 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Frevola 20 of 59 33% 12 of 50 8 of 9 0 of 0 19 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Drew Dober 35 of 75 46% 26 of 61 6 of 11 3 of 3 22 of 58 1 of 2 12 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Frevola 20 of 59 33% 12 of 50 8 of 9 0 of 0 19 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Drew Dober 35 of 75 46% 26 of 61 6 of 11 3 of 3 22 of 58 1 of 2 12 of 15
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Drew Dober vs. Matt Frevola
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dober (-205), Frevola (+175)

Round 1
What many are coining the must-watch battle of the evening takes place in the ESPN prelim headliner, when hard-chinned brawler Dober (26-11, 1 NC; 12-7, 1 NC UFC) throws down with aggressive action fighter Frevola (10-3-1, 4-3-1 UFC). Ahead of what hopes to be a lightweight thriller, the two men bump fists. Referee Herb Dean stands at the ready. Frevola engages with a jab and a body kick, and the latter lands flush. Dober counters with a left hand, and he gets tagged with a right hand over the top. Frevola comes at his foe with a superman punch and a head kick, and he scores a right hand that gives Dober pause. They crash together and bump heads together, and Dober gets a left hand to find the chin. Frevola flails back with powerful punches, and he changes levels and bails on it to knee the body. Dober swats away a kick to his ribs, and he gives Frevola a shove. Frevola slides a punch but cannot dodge the subsequent body shot. A few punches from Frevola bust open Dober’s nose, and he fights his way of the fence. Dober keeps walking him down, slipping a pair of hooks and walking him down. Dober thumps a left to the body, and Frevola loads up with everything he has to fire back. Dober sticks a straight right down the pipe that reddens Frevola’s nose, and he is backing Frevola off but not slowing his offense. Frevola sings a few right hands, and they crash together swinging fists. Both split apart, no worse for wear, and Frevola boots him upside the head with his shin. Dober practically ignores it to retaliate with a one-two, and a left to the body. Frevola connects with another Superman punch, and Dober wobbles but continues marching forward. Dober looses head kicks, and one slides under the arm to the upper ribs.
Frevola sits down on a right hand that pounds square into Dober's perfect jawline, and Dober collapses to his seat. Sensing he might be able to pull off the finish and upset, Frevola leaps on top and hammers Dober with a lengthy barrage of unanswered blows. Frevola beats down on Dober with a long stream of punches, and Dober’s eyes roll back briefly before he gets knocked back into his senses.
As Frevola keeps swinging to finish the job, Dean steps in to wave the fight off, and Dober immediately protests. Dober tries to get back to his feet to show he can still fight and that Dean made a mistake, but he is wobbling on his feet and barely upright. Blood streams from Dober’s face, and the fight is officially over. Frevola goes over to make sure there is no bad blood, and tensions cool down.

The Official Result
Matt Frevola def. Drew Dober R1 4:08 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Angelo picks Matt Frevola, citing his recent knockout power and wrestling ability. He thinks Drew Dober's chin may finally be wearing out from accumulated damage, and that Frevola is smart enough to mix in takedowns rather than brawl. Angelo notes Frevola's confidence from back-to-back KO wins and believes he can land, shoot, and grind to victory. He has a quarter unit on Frevola at +185, calling it great odds for a guy with power and wrestling.

quarter unit at +185
"I have a quarter of a unit on Matt frivola at plus 185"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Big Brady picks Dober, expecting a stand-up war. He notes Frevola has power but tends to brawl, and Dober has one of the best chins in the UFC. He believes if Frevola stands and trades, Dober will knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Frevola has been knocked out before and Dober's durability is elite.

First round knockout prediction
"I'm going with Drew Dober here I'm going with Drew Dober by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Cody emphasizes Dober's incredible chin and power, noting that Frevola has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He points out that Dober survived a knockdown from Terence McKinney and came back to win, while McKinney knocked out Frevola in 7 seconds. He expects Dober to land big shots and knock Frevola out, possibly under 1.5 rounds.

Under 1.5 rounds; Dober by KO
"I would say over by knockout I'm feeling the under one and a half"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dober's pressure and ability to come back from being hurt make him the pick. He notes Frevola has been knocked out too many times and that Dober's losses come only to elite wrestlers. Connor sees Frevola's path as unlikely.

Dober opened at -210, Frevola at +175; odds reflect Dober as favorite.
"Yeah, I gotta take Drew Dober here. He's been knocked out too many times for me to just be like, yeah, this is a bonafide strategy."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The host picks Drew Dober, believing his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land cleanly on Matt Frevola. He notes Dober's defensive grappling should nullify Frevola's takedowns. He expects a knockout and recommends the fight doesn't go to decision as the best bet.

Fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm gonna go the Drew Dober side but my favorite spot in this fight will end up being the fight doesn't go to decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Paul agrees, calling Dober's chin one of the best in the game. He notes Frevola's path is to grapple early, but at range Dober has a clear advantage. He predicts Dober knocks him out, as Frevola has struggled against power punchers.

"I think Drew Dober knocks him out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The Guru picks Dober, calling Frevola a scrappier, worse version of Dober. He notes Dober's chin and ability to survive storms, while Frevola has been finished by lesser fighters. He expects a stand-up fight with Dober finishing Frevola in the first round via being more technical and tough in the pocket.

first round finish
"I'm going with Drew Dober over Matt frivola ... I think Trudeau is going to finish him on the feet at some point in the first round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Zane picks Drew Dober because Dober is more reliable in a brawl, with excellent pocket composure and body work. He notes Frevola may have a wrestling out but is likely to get drawn into a war. Dober's defensive wrestling is solid but not ironclad, but Frevola's tendency to brawl and get knocked out makes Dober the clear pick.

Dober opened at -210, Frevola at +175; odds suggest Dober is a solid favorite in a wild fight.
"So you have to pick Drew. He's going to get a Drew Dober fight and he's just more reliable in that kind of matchup."
KO (punch) R1 2:30 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Frevola 1 11 of 27 40% 12 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ottman Azaitar 0 10 of 22 45% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Frevola 1 11 of 27 40% 12 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ottman Azaitar 0 10 of 22 45% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Frevola 11 of 27 40% 10 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 1 7 of 22 2 of 3 2 of 2
Ottman Azaitar 10 of 22 45% 6 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Frevola 11 of 27 40% 10 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 1 7 of 22 2 of 3 2 of 2
Ottman Azaitar 10 of 22 45% 6 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ottman Azaitar vs. Matt Frevola
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Azaitar (-115), Frevola (-105)

Round 1
Azaitar returns to active competition for the first time since September 2020, and he looks to extended his UFC winning streak to three after back-to-back first-round finishes. Frevola, a New York native and Dana White’s Contender Series alum, is coming off a first-round TKO triumph himself. Dan Miragliotta will get his first reffing assignment of the night for this lightweight affair. Frevola comes out with big movements, missing a high kick and a spinning kick. Azaitar circles on the outside and lands a jab. Frevola answers with a body kick. Frevola moves in and lands a one-two. Azaitar backs his foe up with a front kick. A right from Azaitar backs up Frevola. He follows that with a nice front kick down the middle. A counter right lands for Frevola in an exchange, but Azaitar makes Frevola stubmle with a short left hook. Frevola snaps his foe’s head back with a jab. Azaitar looks to go on the attack as he backs Frevola into the fence with a punching combination.
That proves to be a costly decision, as Frevola lands two short rights in close quarters before putting out Azaitar’s lights with a clean left hook.
Frevola lands a couple standing-to-ground punches before Miragliotta dives in to save an unconscious Azaitar.

The Official Result
Matt Frevola def. Ottman Azaitar via KO (Punch) R1 2:30
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Angelo notes that Azaitar is a powerful striker who thrives in chaos, while Frevola is a tough wrestler who charges forward. He is concerned about Azaitar's two-year layoff but assumes he is prepared. He picks Azaitar and plans to bet on Azaitar inside the distance if the odds are favorable, because he believes if Azaitar wins it will be by stoppage, while Frevola's path is a decision.

Azaitar inside the distance (decision no action) if odds are -300 or better on BetOnline
"I'm gonna have to pick ottman zeitar here I'm gonna probably wait to play some bets"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Big Brady picks Ottman Azaitar to win by first-round knockout. He believes Frevola will choose to stand and bang, which plays into Azaitar's power. He notes Azaitar hits harder than anyone Frevola has faced, and that Frevola has been knocked out before (by Terrence McKinney in 7 seconds) and dropped multiple times. He acknowledges Azaitar's inactivity and takedown defense concerns, but trusts his power. He says if Frevola wrestles he could win, but he doesn't trust him to do so.

Azaitar by KO in round 1
"I'm gonna say he knocks out matravola in the very first round brutal knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Cody picks Azaitar, citing his legitimate power and the fact that Frevola has durability issues, having been knocked out by Marco Polo Reyes and dropped by Lando Vannata. He notes that Azaitar has been on a long layoff but was given a favorable matchup. Cody thinks Azaitar will land a big shot and finish Frevola in the first or second round.

"I think ottman azitar is gonna you know pull the bag on him and knock him out sometime in the first or second round."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Connor picks Azaitar, noting that Frevola has been knocked out early by powerful punchers like Polo Reyes and Terrence McKinney. He points out that Azaitar is an accurate and aggressive finisher who comes out of the gate on point. Connor acknowledges that if the fight goes past the first round, Frevola's versatility gives him an edge, but he trusts Azaitar's early power.

"I'll pick a, a Zaytar to remain on the UFC roster and try to smuggle more drugs into foreign countries."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Daniel Levi picks Ottman Azaitar, believing he will knock out Frevola early. He notes that Frevola has a suspect chin and has been dropped in multiple fights, while Azaitar has knockout power. However, he warns that if Azaitar doesn't finish early, Frevola's pace and heart could take over in later rounds. Levi sees this as a pick'em and is leaning toward Azaitar's finishing ability.

"I think ottman gets him out of there earlier and gets him out of there early"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

The host expects violence and an early finish, likely by Azaitar via KO in round 1. He notes Azaitar's 12 finishes in 13 wins and Frevola's fragility. However, he also sees a path for Frevola via submission if he survives the early onslaught. The best bet is the under 2.5 rounds to cover both scenarios. Official prediction is Azaitar by KO round 1.

under 2.5 rounds (-170)
"official prediction will be a zaitar via Finnish uh round one KO but under two and a half is what I'm going to be looking at in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Paul is torn but leans towards Azaitar getting the finish, though he is more drawn to the under 1.5 rounds prop. He notes that Azaitar hits very hard and Frevola has been knocked out before, but he is unsure about Azaitar's grappling if taken down. Paul thinks the fight will end early, likely by Azaitar KO, but he prefers the under prop.

Under 1.5 rounds at plus money
"I'm more drawn towards the under one and a half rounds... I'll side with you with uh zatar getting the Finish but I'm more drawn towards the under here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

The MMA Guru picks Ottman Azaitar, surprised he is an underdog. He notes Frevola's vulnerability in the pocket and Azaitar's power, predicting a KO in the second round. He acknowledges Azaitar's long layoff and past grappling issues but believes Frevola isn't explosive enough to exploit them.

KO in the second round
"I definitely have to go with ottoman as Iota here how can you make this guy an underdog"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Zane picks Azaitar, comparing him to Abdul Razak Alhassan in terms of early explosiveness and accuracy. He notes that Frevola has been slept by similar fighters and that Azaitar's left hook is a real threat. Zane also mentions that Frevola's durability is questionable, and Azaitar follows up on damage well.

"I think I'll side with you. Yeah. He's going to go out there and nail for Vola with a left hook as quickly as he can."
WIN vs Genaro Valdez
KO/TKO R1 3:15 · UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Jan 22, 2022
KO (punches) R1 0:07 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matt Frevola 1 4 of 5 80% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matt Frevola 1 4 of 5 80% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Frevola 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Frevola 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Matt Frevola vs. Terrance McKinney

Round 1
At lightweight, Frevola (8-2-1, 2-2-1 UFC) will welcome short-notice newcomer and a man with an interesting backstory of “T.Wrecks” McKinney (10-3, 0-0 UFC) to the Octagon. McKinney won one week ago inside the LFA cage, and is stepping in for the unexpectedly injured Frank Camacho. Referee Jason Herzog will be on top of what is sure to be a torrid first round at least, but there is a sporting glove touch before the scheduled violence. McKinney strides out of his corner as if he knows something we don’t, and he marches forward with bad intentions.
When they meet in the center of the cage, a jackhammer of a one-two comes from the newcomer, with a right and a left hand that puts Frevola down like a sack of bricks. Frevola may be out, and McKinney dives down to smash him with hammerfists as Herzog cannot intervene fast enough.
Celebrating what should be one of the quickest knockouts in company history is McKinney, who climbs the cage and leaps off. When “T.Wrecks” lands on the ground, he jams his knee and may have blown it out. McKinney falls over in pain, and he manages to get to his feet thanks to his corner, and he hops over to his stool. Tears in his eyes, McKinney soaks in the moment of what is easily the biggest win of his career, although he does mar it with a potential knee injury.

The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Matt Frevola R1 0:07 via KO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Big Brady picks Matt Frevola, citing his wrestling advantage and better gas tank. He notes Camacho has been finished 7 times and is on a losing streak, while Frevola is younger and should outwork him. He expects a decision win but acknowledges a finish is possible due to both fighters' durability issues.

Frevola by decision
"i think uh matrivola does win this fight i'm going to say by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Cody picks Frevola, believing his cardio and grappling will overcome McKinney's early explosiveness. He thinks if Frevola survives the first round, he will break McKinney down and possibly finish him. He is also interested in the under on the total rounds, expecting a finish.

under 1.5 rounds (anticipated)
"i'm going to take for vola"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Daniel Levi picks Matt Frevola, citing his experience against tough competition and his heart. He notes that Frevola has fought Jalin Turner and Arman Tsarukyan, and that McKinney's only chance is an early knockout. Levi expects McKinney to gas out if he doesn't finish in the first round, and that Frevola's pace and durability will carry him to victory.

"i'm gonna go with the mattress roller here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Matt Frevola

Frevola has better striking and power, and McKinney is coming off a short-notice fight with weight cuts. Both are aggressive, but Frevola should land the cleaner shots. Expect a first-round knockout, as McKinney has never been to a decision and Frevola is all action. The fight likely ends inside the distance.

Frevola by first-round KO, under 2.5 rounds (-170), under 1.5 rounds (+110)
"I'm going to be going with Matt Frevola I think he ends up getting the first round knockout here... I expect this fight to be fireworks from the beginning."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Paul picks Frevola, noting his durability and cardio. He thinks McKinney is too green and will gas out after the first round. He is eager to bet the under on the total rounds, expecting a finish.

under 1.5 rounds (anticipated)
"i'm picking for vola to win"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola, citing Frank Camacho's recent decline and inactivity. He believes Frevola is younger, hungrier, and has good grappling and power. He predicts a first-round TKO in a scrappy brawl, with Frevola's youth and chin giving him the edge.

TKO finish in the first round
"i'm gonna have to go with matt fravola i feel like frank camacho is getting to the point in his career where maybe it's time to call it a day"
LOSS vs Arman Tsarukyan
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 50 of 103 48% 103 of 180 10 of 12 83% 0 0 8:24
Matt Frevola 0 16 of 57 28% 51 of 97 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 28 of 52 53% 33 of 60 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:17
Matt Frevola 0 12 of 41 29% 24 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 7 of 16 43% 34 of 57 4 of 4 100% 0 0 4:36
Matt Frevola 0 1 of 3 33% 20 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Arman Tsarukyan 0 15 of 35 42% 36 of 63 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:31
Matt Frevola 0 3 of 13 23% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 50 of 103 48% 32 of 82 12 of 15 6 of 6 39 of 86 5 of 8 6 of 9
Matt Frevola 16 of 57 28% 8 of 46 6 of 9 2 of 2 9 of 48 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 28 of 52 53% 20 of 43 5 of 6 3 of 3 25 of 48 3 of 4 0 of 0
Matt Frevola 12 of 41 29% 5 of 31 5 of 8 2 of 2 6 of 35 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Arman Tsarukyan 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 5 1 of 3 5 of 8
Matt Frevola 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Arman Tsarukyan 15 of 35 42% 8 of 28 4 of 4 3 of 3 13 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1
Matt Frevola 3 of 13 23% 2 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Matt Frevola vs. Arman Tsarukyan (Missed Weight: 157)

Round 1
The key bout atop the ESPN preliminary portion of the event is one thrown together on Friday due to a
failed weight cut
by one previous opponent and by
hijinks almost too preposterous to believe
for the other. After the dust settled, we were left with a 157-pound catchweight affair as Tsarukyan (15-2, 2-1 UFC) now tries to steamroll “The Steamrolla” Frevola (8-1-1, 2-1-1 UFC). Keeping tabs on this hastily made match is referee Lukasz Bosacki, who notices the two touch gloves in appreciation of still being able to compete on the card. Frevola leads off with several kicks, coming with front kicks and body kicks. He misses with a head kick, and Tsarukyan catches a leg kick to take the fight down with ease. Frevola scoots back to the cage, and when he stands up, Tsarukyan hits a hard mat return. Frevola spins about, threatens a choke, and gets dragged back down. Tsarukyan starts punching him in the face with several right hands, and when he tries to keep Frevola grounded, Frevola starts working body shots from his back. Frevola manages to walk up the fence to stand up again, but it does not stay there for long when Tsarukyan tries to toss him down. Both men fall to their knees, and they stand back up. When they start to engage, they clash heads, but neither appear hurt or cut from it. Tsarukyan starts to walk Frevola down, landing punches and ducking out of the way of Frevola’s huge shots. Tsarukyan lands a one-two as Frevola circles around the fence, and Frevola defends by rolling through a dramatic takedown attempt. When Frevola stands up, he comes up short with a big elbow. Tsarukyan lets loose a head kick, but it is not able to score. The American spins for a wheel kick, and Tsarukyan sees it coming and counters with a spinning back kick that puts Frevola on his back for a moment. Frevola leaps back up, and he takes a few heavy punches and cannot counter effectively. Tsarukyan counters Frevola on the way in, but Frevola is loading up with everything he has on his punches as he gets off a glancing blow that makes Tsarukyan take a step back. Both men stand and trade, and Frevola waves Tsarukyan on to start brawling with him. Frevola sits down on a huge right hand, and Tsarukyan is not able to roll with it. Frevola stings him with a big right hand, and he hurts Tsarukyan with it and shoots in on a takedown to wrap up the action-packed round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan

Round 2
Tsarukyan begins the round with a few big shots, and Frevola eats them like small sandwiches and keeps on going. Tsarukyan shoots in low for a takedown, and he hits it all while Frevola smacks him upside the head repeatedly. Frevola springs back up, but he is not upright for more than a second or two before Tsarukyan throws him back down to the ground. This time, Frevola is not in an advantageous position to walk up the fence, allowing Tsarukyan to start landing ground-and-pound while in Frevola’s guard. Tsarukyan stacks up Frevola, when the American flirts with a triangle choke off his back, and he lords over his foe to land some heavy shots. Frevola rolls through when Tsarukyan tries to pound on him, allowing him to walk up the fence only to get dragged back down in a hurry. Frevola can only stay upright for seconds at a time, as Tsarukyan is on him like a cheap suit, smothering Frevola and irritating him with sporadic punches. Frevola pushes off the fence and is on one knee, and when he stands up, Tsarukyan lifts Frevola’s leg in the air. As Frevola swats at his opponent on one leg, the Russian trips his leg out and slams him down. In one of the brief exchanges from the close-range contact, a right hand of Frevola opens up a cut above Tsarukyan’s left eye. Tsarukyan ignores it and keeps Frevola trapped on his back, even attempting a brabo choke for a moment. Tsarukyan bails on it to get off some ground-and-pound, eventually transitioning into an arm-triangle choke. Frevola rolls and bucks out of the choke, but Tsarukyan holds him down and works him over with punches until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan

Round 3
There is a glove touch to begin the last stanza, and Tsarukyan steps in and kicks Frevola in the face. Frevola swings with a big right hand, and Tsarukyan ducks it into an easy takedown. “The Steamrolla” rolls through it to get back to his feet, where Tsarukyan greets him with another foot to the face. Frevola wears it well as he gets jabbed shortly after, and he swings wildly with a right hand that is nowhere near his opponent. Tsarukyan ducks out of the way from a spinning kick, and he dances backward to evade a multiple-rotation spinning kick that follows. Tsarukyan lands a one-two, and keeps Frevola at bay with jabs and more one-two combinations. Frevola tries to counter, and Tsarukyan snatches up his leg and successfully completes a single. From his back, Frevola pursues a guillotine choke, but Tsarukyan ignores it as he works the body with his left hand, all while sliding his head out of danger. Frevola kicks off, lands an upkick to a standing Tsarukyan, and stands up. Tsarukyan catches him in a rolling brabo or anaconda choke, but they move so fast that he cannot lock it up and both get back up. Frevola overcommits to a strike, and Tsarukyan lifts him up and slams him down. Tsarukyan takes his back in an exchange, but Frevola is sneaky and twists his way out. Instead of winding up on top, Tsarukyan similarly scrambles and puts Frevola on his back. Tsarukyan lands this position in side control, before crawling over to north-south before getting side control on the other side. From there, Tsarukyan sits up, lands a few strikes, and locks down three-quarter mount to drop down shots. Frevola sits up, and he surrenders his back for a moment, but Tsarukyan bowls him back over as he lands strikes. Tsarukyan lumps up Frevola with ground strikes right to the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan (30-27 Tsarukyan)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan (30-27 Tsarukyan)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan (30-27 Tsarukyan)

The Official Result
Arman Tsarukyan def. Matt Frevola via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan (likely referring to Ottman Azaitar, but the matchup is Tsarukyan vs Frevola; he mentions 'zytar' which is likely a mispronunciation of Tsarukyan). He notes Tsarukyan's power and Frevola's recklessness. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Frevola engages in brawls and has been knocked out before. He acknowledges Tsarukyan's takedown defense is a question mark but believes his power will prevail.

first round knockout
"i'm going to say he knocks out matt for volo i'm going to say round one here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan, calling him a class above Frevola in wrestling, striking, and durability. He notes Tsarukyan's impressive improvements and believes he will win fairly easily. Levi respects Frevola's toughness but sees Tsarukyan as a future top-15 fighter.

"i got armand surukian to defeat matt fravola here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Frevola has good takedown defense and cardio, and he should be able to keep the fight on the feet. Tsarukyan's takedown efficiency has been poor (18% against Olivier Aubin-Mercier), and Frevola's low stance helps him stuff takedowns. Frevola's striking, especially his rear uppercut, could be a factor. I think Frevola wins by decision, and at plus money he is a steal.

"I'm going with Nasrat Haqparast to win this fight via decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan (misspelled as 'Ottoman Zyatar') to win by first-round TKO. He criticizes Matt Frevola's tendency to stick his chin out and brawl, which led to a KO loss against Marco Polo Reyes. He believes Tsarukyan's hand speed and power will catch Frevola early. He also notes Frevola has taken significant damage in his career, making him more vulnerable.

First-round TKO
"i think ottoman's gonna beat him to the punch with way more speed and then just catch him straight on the chin and put him out cold in the first round"
Drew Dober - Fight History
KO R2 1:53 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Drew Dober 1 22 of 55 40% 22 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 27 of 76 35% 27 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Drew Dober 0 11 of 29 37% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Drew Dober 1 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Drew Dober 22 of 55 40% 9 of 33 7 of 14 6 of 8 21 of 54 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 27 of 76 35% 18 of 55 0 of 11 9 of 10 27 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Drew Dober 11 of 29 37% 2 of 14 5 of 9 4 of 6 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 18 of 51 35% 9 of 31 0 of 11 9 of 9 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Drew Dober 11 of 26 42% 7 of 19 2 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michael Johnson 9 of 25 36% 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Big Brady picks Drew Dober as a slight underdog over Michael Johnson, but with very low confidence. He notes Johnson is inconsistent and his recent wins are against weak competition, while Dober's chin may be fading after brutal KO losses. However, Brady thinks Dober hits harder and could catch Johnson, predicting a second-round KO. He acknowledges the fight is a toss-up and trusts neither fighter.

Dober by second round knockout
"Give me give me Dober as a dog with very little confidence, but I'll take Dober to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Cody picks Johnson, citing his better speed, boxing, and reach advantage. He notes Dober's recent knockout losses and regression, while Johnson is on a three-fight win streak. He expects Johnson to win by knockout or decision.

"Ang Michael Johnson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Connor picks Johnson, citing Dober's clear decline in recent fights, especially the Kyle Propolek fight where Dober looked slow and unfocused. He notes that Johnson has maintained a consistent level and still has sharp counterpunching and good first-level takedown defense. Connor believes Dober's durability has faded and his pressure style leaves him open to counters, which Johnson can exploit.

Odds: Johnson opened at -185, now -122; Dober opened at +160, now +102.
"I think I have to take Michael Johnson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Drew Dober as an underdog, expecting an early scare followed by a late knockout. He notes that Michael Johnson's speed fades with age, and Dober's durability and power can turn the tide. Vreeland compares it to Dober's fight against Bobby Green, where he took punishment early and finished later.

"I'm going to go Drew Dober to come out here and get this upset after an early scare."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

James picks Michael Johnson because he is faster and hits just as hard as Dober, and he expects Johnson to land first. He notes Dober's declining durability and hittability, making him vulnerable to a knockout. James predicts a KO finish, likely by Johnson, and suggests betting on the fight ending via KO.

Fight ends via KO
"I am picking Michael Johnson to win the fight. The reason I'm picking him to win the fight is because he's faster than Drew Dober and hits probably just as hard."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Johnson is the better technical striker with cleaner counters. Dober is explosive but vulnerable to counters. Johnson's speed and power should allow him to land a big shot and put Dober away. Johnson by knockout.

Johnson by knockout
"I have to lean with Johnson and I think you have to make him the slight favorite because of the technical advantages that he has in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Johnson

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Johnson due to his power, volume, and footwork. He mentions Dober's durability issues and Johnson's ability to fight to his opponent's level. He expects Johnson to either knock Dober out or win a decision.

"Johnson either detonates one upside that chin or just puts in the better of volume over the course of two of those three rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober, believing he will walk through Johnson's shots and land a KO. He compares it to the Bobby Green fight and predicts a second-round TKO. He mentions Dober's whiteboard and obsession with finishing Johnson.

KO in round two
"Drew Dober is gonna knock out Michael Johnson."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Zane also picks Johnson, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He emphasizes that Dober's recent performances show a fighter who is no longer present in the moment, similar to Tony Ferguson's decline. Zane notes that Johnson's speed and counterpunching are still dangerous, and Dober's tendency to lead with his face makes him vulnerable. He sees Johnson as the more reliable fighter at this stage.

Odds: Johnson -122, Dober +102.
"Me too. Unless Drew Dover hits his legendary lap drop."
WIN vs Kyle Prepolec
KO R3 1:16 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyle Prepolec 0 51 of 164 31% 51 of 164 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
Drew Dober 0 83 of 161 51% 85 of 163 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyle Prepolec 0 17 of 66 25% 17 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Drew Dober 0 28 of 58 48% 28 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kyle Prepolec 0 27 of 80 33% 27 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Drew Dober 0 35 of 58 60% 36 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Kyle Prepolec 0 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Drew Dober 0 20 of 45 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyle Prepolec 51 of 164 31% 36 of 139 7 of 13 8 of 12 51 of 164 0 of 0 0 of 0
Drew Dober 83 of 161 51% 46 of 117 18 of 22 19 of 22 77 of 153 6 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyle Prepolec 17 of 66 25% 11 of 53 3 of 7 3 of 6 17 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Drew Dober 28 of 58 48% 12 of 40 5 of 7 11 of 11 28 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kyle Prepolec 27 of 80 33% 20 of 70 3 of 5 4 of 5 27 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Drew Dober 35 of 58 60% 18 of 36 11 of 13 6 of 9 35 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kyle Prepolec 7 of 18 38% 5 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Drew Dober 20 of 45 44% 16 of 41 2 of 2 2 of 2 14 of 37 6 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Drew Dober vs. Kyle Prepolec
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dober (-500); Prepolec (+375)

Round 1
Chins will be tested when this lightweight matchup is all said and done. Dober (27-15, 1 NC; 13-11, 1 NC UFC) may be one of the quietest recordholders in the promotion, as he and Dustin Poirier remain tied for the most knockouts (nine) in the history of the division. He gains a fortuitous matchup in Canada’s Prepolec (18-9, 0-3 UFC), who with a win tonight would earn his first in the Octagon after four efforts. The two will be joined by referee John Cooper, who will keep things on the up-and-up as the fighters choose not to touch gloves.
Prepolec offers an early low kick, and he leans back out of range from a check right hook. Both men land at the end of punches, and Dober scores a low kick behind it. Dober turns his hips behind another hefty leg kick, and he fires one more off and cracks Prepolec with a left hand. Prepolec boots Dober in the face with his shin, and Dober completely ignores it and pops him with a one-two. Dober has his guard up to defend against a high kick the next time, and he swats away all but a body shot from the Canadian. Dober lunges in with a flurry of punches, his left hook finding the target. Dober goes low with a kick and high upstairs with a right hand. A Dober left misses by a hair, and Prepolec’s counters fall short as well. Dober pounds the front leg and puts fists on face immediately thereafter, with Prepolec left playing second fiddle with little more than an overhand left.
Dober scores with his left and chops the front leg with a kick, and he aims a body shot but is kicked back by the Canadian. Dober reaches with his big left, and his body kick plants on the torso. Dober kicks the thigh, and the leg brushes up against the cup. Prepolec waves Cooper off and they keep going. Dober’s kicks have started to have an impact on Prepolec’s front wheel, as Prepolec is ginger on it and open to big left hands. Dober catches him at the end of his left, and he flashes out a few jabs to set up a body shot. Dober backs his man off only to walk into a combination, and Prepolec grins. Even when Prepolec blocks a head kick, the impact of it bangs into his head. Dober whiffs on a wheel kick, clearly feeling himself in the Octagon. Prepolec doubles up jabs to mark up Dober’s nose, and he slips a punch and scores a straight left. Both men toss out head kicks, and Prepolec goes to the body. Prepolec’s jabs further bloody Dober’s nose, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dober
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dober
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dober

Round 2
The lightweights bump fists this round, and Dober says hello with a low kick that transitions into a wheel kick. Prepolec tries to defend a low kick by raising his knee, but that only opens Dober up to throw a body shot. Prepolec strings together his own counters, and Dober takes them on the chin and swings back with bad intentions. Prepolec gets back behind his jab and two, and the nose of Dober begins to leak again. Prepolec checks a kick with an audible thud to it and splits Dober’s shin wide open, and he punches Dober in the face with both fists—one after the other, not at once. Dober shrugs it off and tries to brawl, only for Prepolec to answer him with two upstairs and a head kick. Dober rips the body and jams a kick on the lead leg, and Prepolec is ginger on it after taking damage. Dober kicks it on the inside and swipes out with a pair of hooks, and his left hand is catching the Canadian but not seeming to slow him. Dober gets off the wheel kick he was seeking, banging it into Prepolec’s raised guard. Dober slips a punch and counters with a big left hand up top.
Dober leaps forward behind a Superman punch, and Prepolec’s chin holds up well as he tanks it and hurls back. Dober goes to the body, and Prepolec returns fire with a few punches and a head kick that Dober rolls. Prepolec checks another kick, and Dober stumbles back from it. Prepolec slaps his foe’s inside thigh, and Dober blasts him with a left hand. Prepolec tries to spin through it with a back fist, but it is out of range. Prepolec snaps Dober’s head back with a right hand, and Dober belts him in the belly with his non-damaged shin. Dober opens up with power punches, and Prepolec stands in the pocket and bangs with him, even shaking Dober up with a left hand. Dober suddenly shoots in for a single-leg takedown, and Prepolec sits him up and staves it off. Both men stand up, and Dober bounces a left hand off the temple and releases his opponent’s leg. Prepolec chains a left hand into a head kick, and Dober is wearing it at this point but has hit Prepolec with everything and the kitchen sink. Prepolec splits the guard with an uppercut, and he knocks Dober to his knees with a ferocious left hand. Right before Prepolec is about to annihilate Dober with what would be an illegal soccer kick with Dober’s knee down, the round ends and Cooper is between them.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prepolec
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Prepolec
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Prepolec

Round 3
When the last round begins, Dober shouts, “Let’s do it!” They nod to one another, touch gloves, and swing for the fences. Prepolec boots Dober in the face with his foot, and Dober races after him with flailing punches. Dober unleashes a low kick with everything behind it, and it crashes directly into Prepolec’s cup. Prepolec collapses to the floor, and Cooper goes to the Canadian and practically begs him to take as much time as he needs instead of hurrying back. The partisan crowd starts a booming, profane chant of “F--- Drew Dober,” as Prepolec is in agony on his knees. Two minutes into the five-minute window, and Prepolec stands back up, albeit hunched over. Cooper keeps Prepolec informed of how much time he has left, and Prepolec responds that he is starting to feel better. Due to the severity of the foul, Cooper elects to deduct one point from Dober—this is the right call given the fight-changing nature of the illegal kick. Prepolec asks for them to restart the fight, and after 4:10 of recovery time, he is good to go.
Dober rushes after the Canadian and starts swinging for the bleachers. Practically sprinting at his opponent, Dober hurls punches in bunches and knocks Prepolec’s head around the cage. Prepolec leans over and takes a brutal knee to the chest that further makes him double over. Prepolec skirts away, and Dober rushes after him with one goal in mind: smash the Canadian’s face. Dober takes the counters that Prepolec offers, including a head kick or two, because he is a man possessed.
Backing Prepolec up against the cage, Dober blasts his man with a knee, an elbow and one final surge of punches. With Prepolec leaned over in bad shape, Cooper saves him from further punishment, and the fans are not having it.
Dober apologizes to the Vancouver masses for sending their fighter out like that, and they appear to accept his apology and stop raining down boos. While claps are sporadic, a few in the building realize the significance of Dober now the solo recordholder for the most knockouts in UFC lightweight history with 10.

The Official Result
Drew Dober def. Kyle Prepolec R3 1:16 via TKO (Elbow and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Drew Dober

Angelo picks Drew Dober to win, citing his technical striking and ability to grapple if needed. He notes Dober's recent chin issues but believes Kyle Prepolec is not a UFC-caliber fighter and lacks power. He expects Dober to find a finish, making him a good fantasy play at $9,400.

Dober wins by finish likely
"I think Drew Dober wins this fight. He's the better fighter."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Drew Dober

Big Brady is concerned about Drew Dober's age, fight mileage, and recent chin issues, but believes the skill gap is massive in Dober's favor. He notes Prepolec has never been knocked out and is likely more durable at this stage. He picks Dober by decision, staying away from the -550 price.

"I'm going to take Drew Dober to win this fight by decision just being the more skillful fighter."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Prepolec

Cody picks Prepolec, citing value. He notes Dober's chin is declining and he has been knocked out recently. Prepolec has never been knocked out and has a full camp. Cody believes Prepolec can catch Dober and win by knockout, but admits it's a value play.

"Kyle Prebbleick is the PRP pick. Let's go."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Drew Dober

Connor picks Drew Dober but is hesitant, acknowledging that Dober seems to have lost his confidence and timing after the Manuel Torres loss. He notes that Prepolec is a tough slugger who has never been knocked out, and that Dober's usual brawling approach may not work anymore. However, Connor still expects Dober to win because Prepolec is a step down in competition.

Dober opened -300, now -450; Prepolec opened +250, now +350.
"I'm still gonna pick drew... The end is nigh I'm gonna take the wild flyer on preplek for the hell of it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Drew Dober

James picks Dober to win but notes value on Prepolec as an underdog. He questions Dober's recent chin issues after knockouts by Jean Silva and Matt Frevola, while Prepolec has never been knocked out. James expects a striking battle where Prepolec could land a head kick, but ultimately favors Dober's speed and experience.

"My prediction is Drew Dober, but I'm saying that the value is on Kyle Preple in my opinion because like I said, it really comes down to this and I'm going to say it for the third time, boys, just …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Drew Dober

The host is not a big fan of Dober at the super chalky line given his recent form and Prepolec being a striker himself. However, he still thinks Dober is the better all-around fighter and should mix striking and grappling to win on the scorecards, provided his durability holds up.

not a fan of the line
"I'm not a big fan of Dober at this super chalky line considering his recent form and Prepik obviously being a striker himself."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Prepolec

Paul leans Prepolec, agreeing with Cody on value. He notes Dober's durability is a question and Prepolec has power. Paul says he'll have a small bet on Prepolec but has low conviction.

"Dogger pass. I'll have a little bit on Prepik. I don't feel too much conviction there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Kyle Prepolec. He acknowledges Dober's recent KO loss to Manuel Torres but attributes that to Torres being a genetic freak with nasty power. He believes Dober still has it and will beat Prepolec easily, noting Prepolec shouldn't be in the UFC. He predicts a TKO in the second round.

TKO in the second round
"I'm going to go with Drew Dober to get this one done by TKO in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Prepolec

Zane picks Kyle Prepolec as a wild flyer, citing Dober's recent struggles and loss of confidence. He notes that Prepolec is a tough slugger who has never been knocked out, and that Dober's path to victory is to slug it out, which may no longer work. Zane is not confident but sees value in the underdog.

"I'm gonna take the wild flyer on preplek for the hell of it."
LOSS vs Manuel Torres
KO R1 1:45 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manuel Torres 1 23 of 25 92% 23 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Drew Dober 0 3 of 9 33% 3 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manuel Torres 1 23 of 25 92% 23 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Drew Dober 0 3 of 9 33% 3 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manuel Torres 23 of 25 92% 21 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 9 0 of 0 16 of 16
Drew Dober 3 of 9 33% 2 of 5 0 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manuel Torres 23 of 25 92% 21 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 9 0 of 0 16 of 16
Drew Dober 3 of 9 33% 2 of 5 0 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

James picks Drew Dober to win, arguing that Torres has never won outside round one except for a split decision where he gassed, and that elevation will worsen his cardio. He highlights Dober's elite chin, cardio, and forward pressure, noting Dober's last fight against Jean Silva showed his durability. James believes Dober will survive Torres' early onslaught and then dominate in rounds two and three, likely finishing Torres. He also mentions a potential submission angle for Torres but favors Dober's path to victory.

Prediction: Drew Dober via knockout (round 1 or 2). Mentions Torres submission at plus 1000 as a possible angle.
"I like Drew Dober here I'm picking Drew DOA I think he's shown one of the best chin performances of his entire career in his last fight."
LOSS vs Jean Silva
TKO (doctor stoppage) R3 1:28 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jean Silva 0 59 of 147 40% 59 of 148 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:30
Drew Dober 0 53 of 109 48% 53 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jean Silva 0 20 of 58 34% 20 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Drew Dober 0 16 of 42 38% 16 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jean Silva 0 30 of 70 42% 30 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Drew Dober 0 31 of 55 56% 31 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jean Silva 0 9 of 19 47% 9 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
Drew Dober 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jean Silva 59 of 147 40% 29 of 109 21 of 28 9 of 10 55 of 138 4 of 9 0 of 0
Drew Dober 53 of 109 48% 37 of 89 15 of 19 1 of 1 48 of 101 5 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jean Silva 20 of 58 34% 7 of 41 8 of 12 5 of 5 20 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Drew Dober 16 of 42 38% 10 of 34 6 of 8 0 of 0 15 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jean Silva 30 of 70 42% 17 of 53 10 of 13 3 of 4 26 of 61 4 of 9 0 of 0
Drew Dober 31 of 55 56% 23 of 45 7 of 9 1 of 1 29 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1
3 Jean Silva 9 of 19 47% 5 of 15 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Drew Dober 6 of 12 50% 4 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Angelo picks Jean Silva, having bet on him at +105. He believes Silva is the better striker and would win with a full camp, but cautions about the quick turnaround (fighting two weeks after UFC 303) and moving up in weight. He notes that Silva opened as an underdog but has become the favorite, and advises that betting at plus money was good but at current minus odds may not be worth it. He acknowledges Drew Dober's durability and chin.

Bet on Silva at +105; cautions about betting at current minus odds.
"I bet on John Silva I got him at plus 105 and I do think he wins this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Cody picks Jean Silva, impressed by his power and durability shown against Charles Jourdain. He believes Dober's chin is declining and that Silva's pressure and power will be too much. He notes Silva's camp at Fighting Nerds and his ability to generate power from any position.

"I will take Jean Silva."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Daniel Vreeland picks Drew Dober over Jean Silva. He cites Dober's experience, power, and size advantage as a true lightweight, while Silva is moving up from featherweight. He notes Dober's status as a lightweight KO king and that he lives in Colorado, giving him an altitude advantage. He acknowledges Silva's impressive performances but thinks the quick turnaround and elevation may affect him. He leans with the veteran Dober.

"I'm gonna go with Drew Dober to get this one done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Drew Dober

Drew Dober is the more technical striker. If he can stay competitive early, Jean Silva will slow down due to altitude and whiffing. Dober's solid striking defense will allow him to turn up the pace and potentially put Silva away in the second or third round.

"I think if Dober can stay competitive early we'll see Jean Silva start to slow down having to deal with the altitude and whiffing at air"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Paul picks Jean Silva, citing his power and the fact that Dober's chin may be fading. He notes Silva's performance against Jourdain and believes Silva's pressure will overwhelm Dober. He expects an entertaining fight with a finish.

"I'm going to go with John Silva to keep the vibes going here."
LOSS vs Renato Moicano
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Renato Moicano 0 23 of 42 54% 142 of 177 3 of 6 50% 0 0 10:33
Drew Dober 0 23 of 59 38% 36 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Renato Moicano 0 6 of 12 50% 43 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:48
Drew Dober 0 6 of 20 30% 7 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Renato Moicano 0 2 of 5 40% 34 of 42 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:19
Drew Dober 0 6 of 13 46% 17 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:01
3 Renato Moicano 0 15 of 25 60% 65 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:26
Drew Dober 0 11 of 26 42% 12 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Renato Moicano 23 of 42 54% 20 of 39 2 of 2 1 of 1 10 of 27 1 of 2 12 of 13
Drew Dober 23 of 59 38% 17 of 50 4 of 7 2 of 2 19 of 52 1 of 1 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Renato Moicano 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 2
Drew Dober 6 of 20 30% 5 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Renato Moicano 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 1
Drew Dober 6 of 13 46% 5 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 1 of 1 3 of 6
3 Renato Moicano 15 of 25 60% 14 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 15 0 of 0 9 of 10
Drew Dober 11 of 26 42% 7 of 21 2 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Angelo picks Drew Dober, trusting his chin and brawling ability. He notes that Moicano is chinny and hasn't fought in a year. He believes Dober can bait Moicano into a firefight and knock him out. He has a half-unit bet on Dober at +125.

Half-unit bet at +125
"Drew Dober is going to be the pick I do have a half a unit bet on him at plus 125"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Big Brady picks Renato Moicano to win by first-round submission. He notes that Moicano has a huge advantage on the ground, and Dober has been submitted multiple times. However, Moicano sometimes falls in love with striking, which would be dangerous against Dober's power. Brady thinks Moicano will take Dober down and submit him, but acknowledges it's a 50-50 fight.

first round, submission
"give me my Conor to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Cody picks Moicano, citing Dober's declining durability and Moicano's superior grappling and angles. He notes Dober's chin is fading after the Fialho knockout, and Moicano can set up takedowns with his jab. He sees Moicano by submission as a strong prop.

Moicano by submission +200
"moano by submission plus 200 was a good look"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Moicano has a tremendous BJJ black belt and should be able to drag Dober to the ground and sink in a rear naked choke. However, the host is hesitant due to Moicano's long layoff and knee surgery at 34 years old. Dober has power and good cardio, but is at a skill disadvantage on the ground. The host expects the fight not to go to decision, with Moicano winning by submission.

Fight doesn't go to decision is mentioned as a chalky play.
"I think it's going to be moano who ends up sinking in the choke and getting that rear naked choke Victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Moicano. He highlights Dober's reckless pressure and suspect takedown defense, while Moicano's jab and movement should set up takedowns. He notes Moicano's losses are to elite fighters, and Dober has never been at that level.

"I think it's kind of against him here minus one 5 is not a terrible price tag on hanato Mako"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Renato Moicano, predicting a TKO. He cites Moicano's long layoff since November 2022 due to a leg injury, and doubts he will look his best. He believes Dober has more power on the feet and has impressive wins over Terrance McKinney, Rafael Alves, and Bobby Green. He thinks Moicano will struggle to take Dober down and that Dober will catch him with his hands down, Korean Zombie style.

TKO
"I am going to go with Drew Dober here... I am going to go with Drew Dober getting this one done by TKO at some point."
WIN vs Ricky Glenn
TKO (punches) R1 2:36 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Drew Dober 1 30 of 53 56% 30 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Ricky Glenn 0 5 of 22 22% 5 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Drew Dober 1 30 of 53 56% 30 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Ricky Glenn 0 5 of 22 22% 5 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Drew Dober 30 of 53 56% 19 of 40 7 of 9 4 of 4 20 of 38 2 of 3 8 of 12
Ricky Glenn 5 of 22 22% 2 of 15 3 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Drew Dober 30 of 53 56% 19 of 40 7 of 9 4 of 4 20 of 38 2 of 3 8 of 12
Ricky Glenn 5 of 22 22% 2 of 15 3 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Angelo picks Drew Dober confidently, citing his technical kickboxing, power, and willingness to brawl. He notes that Ricky Glenn struggles when opponents bring a brawl. However, he expresses concern about Dober's chin after his knockout loss to Matt Frevola, wondering if it's the beginning of the end. He has Dober in a parlay with Kanako Murata, calling it risky.

Parlay with Kanako Murata
"I'm still squarely in the Drew Dober Camp here obviously some concerns about where the chin is or is not"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Big Brady is very confident in Drew Dober, calling the matchup questionable and noting Ricky Glenn's poor performance in his last fight. He believes Glenn looks washed and has had long layoffs due to injuries. He expects Dober's power to be too much, predicting a first-round knockout despite Glenn only being knocked out once in his career.

first round knockout for Drew Dober
"I'm gonna take Drew Dober to win this fight I'm gonna take him to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Cody picks Dober but is hesitant, noting that Dober's chin may be compromised after his knockout loss to Matt Frevola. He acknowledges Glenn's sneaky power and low activity, but believes Dober's experience and power give him the edge. He does not like the line and sees better value elsewhere.

Under 2.5 rounds, Fight time under 9.75 minutes
"I don't like the line I don't like the value... but I gotta pick the rifle winner"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Daniel Levi picks Drew Dober, noting that Dober has always been a step ahead of Ricky Glenn in competition. He highlights Dober's power and his record for most KOs in the lightweight division, but also acknowledges Glenn's durability (only one KO loss in over 30 fights). He thinks Dober should get back on track but doesn't guarantee a KO.

"I think Dober should get back on track here I think that the odds indicate that"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Drew Dober

Lucrative James predicts Dober wins by knockout in round two or three. He thinks the line is wide but Dober should get the finish. He notes Dober has good takedown defense but struggles to get back up if taken down. He believes Glenn is slowing down and Dober will eventually crack his chin.

"I'm predicting out round two round three sweet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Drew Dober

Dober has power and speed advantages, and Glenn has durability concerns after a long layoff and surgeries. However, Dober is unreliable as a heavy favorite and Glenn can also knock him out. The fight likely ends inside the distance, with Dober getting a KO, but the odds are too high to trust. I predict Dober by KO but won't bet the moneyline.

fight doesn't go to decision
"give me Drew Dober by KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ricky Glenn

Paul picks Ricky Glenn as a value play, citing Dober's recent knockout loss and Glenn's volatility. He notes that Glenn has sneaky power and could catch Dober. However, he is not highly confident, calling it a high-volatility fight. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop as a safer bet.

Under 2.5 rounds, Ricky Glenn by knockout (YOLO play)
"I'll pick them for the purposes of this show because I just can't get to minus 420... it's just a high volatility fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Ricky Glenn, predicting a TKO. He jokes about Dober's racially motivated power but seriously notes Glenn looked like an 'old age pensioner' in his last fight against Christos Giagos, slow and predictable. He believes Dober has decent takedown defense and will land body shots, finishing Glenn in the late first round. He also mentions Glenn stands upright, making him vulnerable.

late first round KO
"I'm gonna go Drew Dober over Ricky Glenn too old too robotic too rusty"
LOSS vs Matt Frevola
TKO (punches) R1 4:08 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Frevola 0 20 of 59 33% 20 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Drew Dober 1 35 of 75 46% 39 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Frevola 0 20 of 59 33% 20 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Drew Dober 1 35 of 75 46% 39 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Frevola 20 of 59 33% 12 of 50 8 of 9 0 of 0 19 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Drew Dober 35 of 75 46% 26 of 61 6 of 11 3 of 3 22 of 58 1 of 2 12 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Frevola 20 of 59 33% 12 of 50 8 of 9 0 of 0 19 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Drew Dober 35 of 75 46% 26 of 61 6 of 11 3 of 3 22 of 58 1 of 2 12 of 15
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Drew Dober vs. Matt Frevola
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dober (-205), Frevola (+175)

Round 1
What many are coining the must-watch battle of the evening takes place in the ESPN prelim headliner, when hard-chinned brawler Dober (26-11, 1 NC; 12-7, 1 NC UFC) throws down with aggressive action fighter Frevola (10-3-1, 4-3-1 UFC). Ahead of what hopes to be a lightweight thriller, the two men bump fists. Referee Herb Dean stands at the ready. Frevola engages with a jab and a body kick, and the latter lands flush. Dober counters with a left hand, and he gets tagged with a right hand over the top. Frevola comes at his foe with a superman punch and a head kick, and he scores a right hand that gives Dober pause. They crash together and bump heads together, and Dober gets a left hand to find the chin. Frevola flails back with powerful punches, and he changes levels and bails on it to knee the body. Dober swats away a kick to his ribs, and he gives Frevola a shove. Frevola slides a punch but cannot dodge the subsequent body shot. A few punches from Frevola bust open Dober’s nose, and he fights his way of the fence. Dober keeps walking him down, slipping a pair of hooks and walking him down. Dober thumps a left to the body, and Frevola loads up with everything he has to fire back. Dober sticks a straight right down the pipe that reddens Frevola’s nose, and he is backing Frevola off but not slowing his offense. Frevola sings a few right hands, and they crash together swinging fists. Both split apart, no worse for wear, and Frevola boots him upside the head with his shin. Dober practically ignores it to retaliate with a one-two, and a left to the body. Frevola connects with another Superman punch, and Dober wobbles but continues marching forward. Dober looses head kicks, and one slides under the arm to the upper ribs.
Frevola sits down on a right hand that pounds square into Dober's perfect jawline, and Dober collapses to his seat. Sensing he might be able to pull off the finish and upset, Frevola leaps on top and hammers Dober with a lengthy barrage of unanswered blows. Frevola beats down on Dober with a long stream of punches, and Dober’s eyes roll back briefly before he gets knocked back into his senses.
As Frevola keeps swinging to finish the job, Dean steps in to wave the fight off, and Dober immediately protests. Dober tries to get back to his feet to show he can still fight and that Dean made a mistake, but he is wobbling on his feet and barely upright. Blood streams from Dober’s face, and the fight is officially over. Frevola goes over to make sure there is no bad blood, and tensions cool down.

The Official Result
Matt Frevola def. Drew Dober R1 4:08 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Angelo picks Matt Frevola, citing his recent knockout power and wrestling ability. He thinks Drew Dober's chin may finally be wearing out from accumulated damage, and that Frevola is smart enough to mix in takedowns rather than brawl. Angelo notes Frevola's confidence from back-to-back KO wins and believes he can land, shoot, and grind to victory. He has a quarter unit on Frevola at +185, calling it great odds for a guy with power and wrestling.

quarter unit at +185
"I have a quarter of a unit on Matt frivola at plus 185"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Big Brady picks Dober, expecting a stand-up war. He notes Frevola has power but tends to brawl, and Dober has one of the best chins in the UFC. He believes if Frevola stands and trades, Dober will knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Frevola has been knocked out before and Dober's durability is elite.

First round knockout prediction
"I'm going with Drew Dober here I'm going with Drew Dober by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Cody emphasizes Dober's incredible chin and power, noting that Frevola has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He points out that Dober survived a knockdown from Terence McKinney and came back to win, while McKinney knocked out Frevola in 7 seconds. He expects Dober to land big shots and knock Frevola out, possibly under 1.5 rounds.

Under 1.5 rounds; Dober by KO
"I would say over by knockout I'm feeling the under one and a half"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dober's pressure and ability to come back from being hurt make him the pick. He notes Frevola has been knocked out too many times and that Dober's losses come only to elite wrestlers. Connor sees Frevola's path as unlikely.

Dober opened at -210, Frevola at +175; odds reflect Dober as favorite.
"Yeah, I gotta take Drew Dober here. He's been knocked out too many times for me to just be like, yeah, this is a bonafide strategy."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The host picks Drew Dober, believing his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land cleanly on Matt Frevola. He notes Dober's defensive grappling should nullify Frevola's takedowns. He expects a knockout and recommends the fight doesn't go to decision as the best bet.

Fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm gonna go the Drew Dober side but my favorite spot in this fight will end up being the fight doesn't go to decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Paul agrees, calling Dober's chin one of the best in the game. He notes Frevola's path is to grapple early, but at range Dober has a clear advantage. He predicts Dober knocks him out, as Frevola has struggled against power punchers.

"I think Drew Dober knocks him out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The Guru picks Dober, calling Frevola a scrappier, worse version of Dober. He notes Dober's chin and ability to survive storms, while Frevola has been finished by lesser fighters. He expects a stand-up fight with Dober finishing Frevola in the first round via being more technical and tough in the pocket.

first round finish
"I'm going with Drew Dober over Matt frivola ... I think Trudeau is going to finish him on the feet at some point in the first round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Zane picks Drew Dober because Dober is more reliable in a brawl, with excellent pocket composure and body work. He notes Frevola may have a wrestling out but is likely to get drawn into a war. Dober's defensive wrestling is solid but not ironclad, but Frevola's tendency to brawl and get knocked out makes Dober the clear pick.

Dober opened at -210, Frevola at +175; odds suggest Dober is a solid favorite in a wild fight.
"So you have to pick Drew. He's going to get a Drew Dober fight and he's just more reliable in that kind of matchup."
WIN vs King Green
KO (punch) R2 2:45 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Drew Dober 1 34 of 121 28% 34 of 121 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
King Green 0 73 of 142 51% 75 of 145 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Drew Dober 0 17 of 71 23% 17 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
King Green 0 39 of 87 44% 40 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
2 Drew Dober 1 17 of 50 34% 17 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
King Green 0 34 of 55 61% 35 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Drew Dober 34 of 121 28% 16 of 86 9 of 21 9 of 14 33 of 119 0 of 1 1 of 1
King Green 73 of 142 51% 50 of 113 17 of 22 6 of 7 72 of 141 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Drew Dober 17 of 71 23% 5 of 50 7 of 13 5 of 8 17 of 70 0 of 1 0 of 0
King Green 39 of 87 44% 27 of 71 7 of 10 5 of 6 38 of 86 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Drew Dober 17 of 50 34% 11 of 36 2 of 8 4 of 6 16 of 49 0 of 0 1 of 1
King Green 34 of 55 61% 23 of 42 10 of 12 1 of 1 34 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Angelo picks Drew Dober hesitantly, acknowledging that this is a very tough fight to call. He notes Dober has a great chin and power, while Bobby Green is more technically sound with higher volume and better defense. He worries that Dober might get touched up like in the Nazrat fight. He plans to stay away from betting on this fight due to low confidence.

Will not bet on this fight; staying away
"I'm going with Drew Dover here because I think he's the more dangerous guy but this could look a lot like Bobby vs nazrat where Drew dober's just getting touched up"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Big Brady picks Bobby Green as an underdog, citing his recent impressive performances and high volume. He worries about Green's fight IQ and the judges, but thinks Green will outland Dober. He notes Dober will land the harder shots but Green's volume should win rounds. He also mentions Green could wrestle but likely won't. He predicts a close decision win for Green.

Green wins by decision
"I will take Bobby green for the upset I'll take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Cody picks Dober, believing his power and durability will sway judges. He notes Dober sits down on his punches and has good leg kicks. He thinks Green's flat-footed boxing style and head-shaking may not impress judges. He expects a close decision win for Dober and considers Dober by decision.

Dober by decision
"I'm gonna go with Drew Dober... I think Drew dope is going to get his hand raised so I will play Dober and then to sweeten the action a little bit because minus 150 just not good enough for me …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
King Green

Green is a solid spot here. Dober has recency bias from two straight KOs, but Green is much more durable than those opponents (Rafael Alves, Terrence McKinney). Green will outstrike Dober, throw more combinations, and take home a decision. The line stayed around +130 to +135.

Bet at +130 to +135 range
"Bobby green is not those last two guys right Bobby green um why am I blinking on him well just a complete brain fart right there Rafael Alves you know I mean he's not Raphael office he's better than Raphael …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Paul leans Green, thinking he is a cleaner, more dynamic boxer who can win on volume. He notes Green has insane durability and will outland Dober. However, he is hesitant because Dober lands bigger shots and judges may favor damage. He says if the lines were flipped he wouldn't touch it, but at plus money he considers it.

"I kind of want to bet Bobby green Cody... I think he ends up winning the volume and then it comes down to like when this goes to a scorecard"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
King Green

The MMA Guru picks King Green over Drew Dober, despite many picking Dober. He compares Dober to Rafael Fiziev, whom Green nearly beat, and believes Green's style of straight punches and range control will trouble Dober. He notes Green's reach and height advantages and expects him to pepper Dober, swelling his eye and nose, and win a 29-28 decision. He also thinks Dober may not react well to Green's taunting.

"I'ma go Bobby green"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Angelo picks Matt Frevola, citing his recent knockout power and wrestling ability. He thinks Drew Dober's chin may finally be wearing out from accumulated damage, and that Frevola is smart enough to mix in takedowns rather than brawl. Angelo notes Frevola's confidence from back-to-back KO wins and believes he can land, shoot, and grind to victory. He has a quarter unit on Frevola at +185, calling it great odds for a guy with power and wrestling.

quarter unit at +185
"I have a quarter of a unit on Matt frivola at plus 185"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Big Brady picks Dober, expecting a stand-up war. He notes Frevola has power but tends to brawl, and Dober has one of the best chins in the UFC. He believes if Frevola stands and trades, Dober will knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Frevola has been knocked out before and Dober's durability is elite.

First round knockout prediction
"I'm going with Drew Dober here I'm going with Drew Dober by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Cody emphasizes Dober's incredible chin and power, noting that Frevola has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He points out that Dober survived a knockdown from Terence McKinney and came back to win, while McKinney knocked out Frevola in 7 seconds. He expects Dober to land big shots and knock Frevola out, possibly under 1.5 rounds.

Under 1.5 rounds; Dober by KO
"I would say over by knockout I'm feeling the under one and a half"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dober's pressure and ability to come back from being hurt make him the pick. He notes Frevola has been knocked out too many times and that Dober's losses come only to elite wrestlers. Connor sees Frevola's path as unlikely.

Dober opened at -210, Frevola at +175; odds reflect Dober as favorite.
"Yeah, I gotta take Drew Dober here. He's been knocked out too many times for me to just be like, yeah, this is a bonafide strategy."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The host picks Drew Dober, believing his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land cleanly on Matt Frevola. He notes Dober's defensive grappling should nullify Frevola's takedowns. He expects a knockout and recommends the fight doesn't go to decision as the best bet.

Fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm gonna go the Drew Dober side but my favorite spot in this fight will end up being the fight doesn't go to decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Paul agrees, calling Dober's chin one of the best in the game. He notes Frevola's path is to grapple early, but at range Dober has a clear advantage. He predicts Dober knocks him out, as Frevola has struggled against power punchers.

"I think Drew Dober knocks him out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The Guru picks Dober, calling Frevola a scrappier, worse version of Dober. He notes Dober's chin and ability to survive storms, while Frevola has been finished by lesser fighters. He expects a stand-up fight with Dober finishing Frevola in the first round via being more technical and tough in the pocket.

first round finish
"I'm going with Drew Dober over Matt frivola ... I think Trudeau is going to finish him on the feet at some point in the first round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Zane picks Drew Dober because Dober is more reliable in a brawl, with excellent pocket composure and body work. He notes Frevola may have a wrestling out but is likely to get drawn into a war. Dober's defensive wrestling is solid but not ironclad, but Frevola's tendency to brawl and get knocked out makes Dober the clear pick.

Dober opened at -210, Frevola at +175; odds suggest Dober is a solid favorite in a wild fight.
"So you have to pick Drew. He's going to get a Drew Dober fight and he's just more reliable in that kind of matchup."