UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo Next Fight
Age 38
Height 5' 3"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 6"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Virna Jandiroba
2.27 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
2.86 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
3.13 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
1.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Marina Rodriguez
4.51 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.01 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.27 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Virna Jandiroba
Moneyline
FanDuel +102
KO/TKO
BetWay +1800
Submission
BetMGM +450
Decision
FanDuel +250
Marina Rodriguez
Moneyline
Caesars -105
KO/TKO
BetRivers +550
Submission
FanDuel +2200
Decision
BetRivers +165
Virna Jandiroba - Fight History
WIN vs Tabatha Ricci
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 26 of 64 40% 122 of 174 6 of 12 50% 0 0 8:00
Tabatha Ricci 0 37 of 82 45% 89 of 144 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 3 of 10 30% 26 of 34 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:00
Tabatha Ricci 0 7 of 13 53% 9 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 9 of 16 56% 61 of 79 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:33
Tabatha Ricci 0 6 of 14 42% 50 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
3 Virna Jandiroba 0 14 of 38 36% 35 of 61 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:27
Tabatha Ricci 0 24 of 55 43% 30 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 26 of 64 40% 19 of 56 7 of 8 0 of 0 24 of 60 1 of 3 1 of 1
Tabatha Ricci 37 of 82 45% 27 of 68 5 of 7 5 of 7 33 of 77 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 7 of 13 53% 5 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Virna Jandiroba 9 of 16 56% 8 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 13 1 of 2 1 of 1
Tabatha Ricci 6 of 14 42% 3 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 3 4 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Virna Jandiroba 14 of 38 36% 8 of 31 6 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 24 of 55 43% 19 of 47 3 of 5 2 of 3 22 of 52 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba, believing she is the better wrestler and can control the fight. He criticizes Tabatha Ricci's striking, saying she thinks she's a boxer but isn't, and her takedowns are poor. He notes Jandiroba is one judge away from being champion and expects her to grind out a win. He placed a half-unit bet on Jandiroba at +115.

Angelo says 'I threw a half a unit on Verna at plus 115.'
"Vera's going to get all the takedowns, have all the control time."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Big Brady leans toward Tabatha Ricci but with low confidence. He acknowledges Jandiroba is a higher-level grappler but thinks Ricci is stronger, has better wrestling, and is the better striker. He sees a path where Ricci stuffs takedowns and wins on the feet. He also notes Jandiroba's age (37) and potential lack of motivation after a title loss. He will not bet this fight.

No bet
"I'm leaning Ricci here. Not with a ton of confidence cuz Verna is a tricky tricky fighter to pick and bet against. I will not be betting this fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Cody picks Ricci because she is the better striker and has excellent takedown defense, making it hard for Jandiroba to hold her down. He believes the judges will favor damage over control time, and Ricci's striking will leave a lasting impression.

"Rei just maybe lands a few more damaging blows. Reachi's last fight with Hebas, you saw those elbows from the clinch, big shots against the cage. That's probably what's going to be the lasting impression on the judg's minds."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)

The host is torn on the winner, seeing strong cases for both. He initially leaned Ricci due to youth and volume, but after research, he sees Jandiroba's power and ground advantage as significant. He concludes the fight is too close to bet pre-fight and prefers live betting. However, he does bet Ricci +3.5 on the fight spread.

Bet on Tabatha Ricci +3.5 (fight spread).
"I do like Richie plus 3.5 just because I think with how much Janderroa slows down and the pace at which Richie fights at, I think no matter what happens, Richie will make Jander Robba work very hard."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

James leans toward Virna Jandiroba as the underdog, surprised by the odds given Jandiroba's recent title fight and superior grappling. He believes Jandiroba's top control and submission threat are the best in the division, and that Ricci hasn't faced such a test. He notes Ricci's striking advantage but doubts her power, calling her knockout of Amanda Ribas a fluke. However, he hesitates due to Jandiroba's age (37) and potential post-title-fight letdown, and mentions he might bet the over instead. He picks Jandiroba via decision but is not confident enough to bet.

Considering over 2.5 rounds; no bet placed
"I have to pick Vera for that reason. I don't know if I'm going to bet her though honestly, boys."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 1, 2026 (3 days before fight)

James mentions the co-main event but does not give a pick for either fighter. He only describes the matchup as interesting.

"We have a co-main event that doesn't light your hair on fire, but it's probably going to be a interesting match-up at least."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

The host believes Jandiroba's grappling will be too much for Ricci, as she can get takedowns and keep Ricci in defensive positions. He notes Ricci's improved striking but doubts she can provide enough danger to keep Jandiroba from her game. He expects Jandiroba to win by decision, controlling the fight with top pressure.

"I think Janji Doba is a good enough grappler that she'll be able to keep Reachi in defensive positions for the most part... I like Jangidoba here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Paul leans towards Ricci, noting that Jandiroba's grappling-heavy style may not score well if judges prioritize damage. He acknowledges Jandiroba's takedown ability but thinks Ricci's striking and ability to get back up will be key.

"I don't know. It's basically a pick them and it's going to be a fight for who can get top control and really nobody's been getting top control and and and being able to win that type of fight against …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Tabatha Ricci

The MMA Guru picks Tabatha Ricci, predicting a controversial decision win. He believes Ricci will be out-grappled but the judges will favor her, possibly setting up a future fight with Mackenzie Dern. He notes Jandiroba looked bad against Dern and that Ricci is coming off a TKO win.

Controversial decision predicted
"I'm going to go with Tabatha Ricci, man. I can see this being a weird scorecard, 29-28. They give it a win."
LOSS vs Mackenzie Dern
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 106 of 217 48% 208 of 331 9 of 17 52% 0 0 9:07
Mackenzie Dern 0 118 of 231 51% 249 of 372 2 of 8 25% 0 0 3:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 27 of 45 60% 41 of 60 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:57
Mackenzie Dern 0 20 of 36 55% 38 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 14 of 34 41% 45 of 72 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:24
Mackenzie Dern 0 19 of 44 43% 50 of 77 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
3 Virna Jandiroba 0 14 of 27 51% 38 of 53 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:09
Mackenzie Dern 0 18 of 32 56% 52 of 68 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:14
4 Virna Jandiroba 0 28 of 58 48% 42 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Mackenzie Dern 0 26 of 62 41% 38 of 74 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:30
5 Virna Jandiroba 0 23 of 53 43% 42 of 73 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:24
Mackenzie Dern 0 35 of 57 61% 71 of 95 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 106 of 217 48% 72 of 177 20 of 25 14 of 15 83 of 192 20 of 21 3 of 4
Mackenzie Dern 118 of 231 51% 84 of 193 21 of 25 13 of 13 89 of 199 8 of 10 21 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 27 of 45 60% 9 of 25 13 of 15 5 of 5 18 of 36 8 of 8 1 of 1
Mackenzie Dern 20 of 36 55% 12 of 27 4 of 5 4 of 4 16 of 30 2 of 3 2 of 3
2 Virna Jandiroba 14 of 34 41% 11 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2 12 of 32 1 of 1 1 of 1
Mackenzie Dern 19 of 44 43% 16 of 40 3 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 38 2 of 2 4 of 4
3 Virna Jandiroba 14 of 27 51% 14 of 25 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 19 6 of 6 1 of 2
Mackenzie Dern 18 of 32 56% 13 of 26 4 of 5 1 of 1 12 of 26 2 of 2 4 of 4
4 Virna Jandiroba 28 of 58 48% 20 of 49 3 of 4 5 of 5 26 of 55 2 of 3 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 26 of 62 41% 17 of 52 4 of 5 5 of 5 25 of 60 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Virna Jandiroba 23 of 53 43% 18 of 47 3 of 3 2 of 3 20 of 50 3 of 3 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 35 of 57 61% 26 of 48 6 of 6 3 of 3 23 of 45 1 of 1 11 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba based on gut feeling, despite the line moving against her. He expects the fight to be entirely on the ground, where Virna's wrestling and safe jiu-jitsu will grind out a win. He notes Mackenzie's only path is submission, but Virna won't take risks like Amanda Ribas did. Angelo plans to bet Virna if the line rebounds.

The line sliding in the opposite direction will probably have me placing a bet on Verna by the end of this week. ... I'll probably have some action on Verna.
"I'm going to go with the gut here. ... Verna is going to be the pick. The line sliding in the opposite direction will probably have me placing a bet on Verna by the end of this week."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern, highlighting her massive improvements in striking and wrestling. He notes Dern's striking looked incredible against Angela Hill and that she now has power and aggression. He believes Dern's pressure and volume will overwhelm Virna Jandiroba on the feet, as Jandiroba lacks power and may be hesitant to grapple. Brady also cites the five-round distance favoring Dern's cardio and toughness, predicting a fourth-round TKO.

Dern by fourth round TKO; line flipped from plus money; Dern to become strawweight champion
"I got to go Dern here. I think the five rounds heavily favors Mackenzie Dern. Give me Dern here. I'm going to say Dern wins this fight by fourth round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Cody picks Mackenzie Dern, arguing that over five rounds, Dern's volume, speed, and willingness to engage will outpace Jandiroba's control-heavy style. He notes that Jandiroba's wrestling is elite but she lacks striking output, and Dern's submission defense and scrambling make her dangerous off her back. Cody believes Dern's path is a decision win, as she lands more and is faster.

"I think over five rounds, she's just going to be doing a lot more. She lands more. She's faster."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Connor picks Jandiroba, taking a chance on her improvements in confidence and physicality since the first fight. He believes her wrestling-focused BJJ, reminiscent of Damien Maia, can neutralize Dern's guard attacks if she commits to grappling. He admits it's a hopeful pick but thinks Jandiroba has the tools to win if she doesn't repeat her negative game plan.

"I'm going to take the silly chance pick on Verna Jan Girova, cause I really want her to win and I really do feel like she's put in the work to be a more confident fighter, but I, you know, …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Daniel Vreeland believes Mackenzie Dern's striking evolution and power give her the edge, especially as the fight progresses and Jandiroba slows down. He thinks the ground game will cancel out early, but Dern's improved hands and cardio will allow her to take over in later rounds. He also notes that the winner of the first fight often wins the rematch, especially with an age gap.

"I think in the early going, the ground game is going to kind of cancel itself out. But as the fight progresses and as Janji Doba starts to slow down, that's where I see McKenzie really letting her combinations go."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Lucrative James picks Mackenzie Dern, citing her multiple paths to victory: she can win on the feet, by submission, or by outscrambling. He believes Dern has improved her boxing and wrestling, while Jandiroba's usual path of outgrappling opponents will be neutralized because Dern is dangerous from bottom and can sweep or submit her. He also notes Dern's better cardio and power, and predicts Jandiroba will get rocked at some point. He sees Dern as the underdog with value.

"I'm going to side with Mackenzie Durn here. ... I think she grits out a win here. TKO submission decision. I don't care. I'm picking McKenzie Durn money line."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

The host expects Dern to replicate her 2020 win by putting together better striking, scrambling well in grappling, and winning a clear decision to become the new strawweight champion.

decision
"I expect her to replicate that performance... and new strawweight champion McKenzie Durn."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Dern has a great chin and throws more volume. He notes that Jandiroba's path to victory relies on takedowns and control, but Dern is crafty off her back. Paul also mentions that Jandiroba has never fought five rounds in the UFC and is 37, suggesting that if she wins early rounds, she may fade, making Dern a strong live bet as well.

"Dern just kind of if it turns into a slobberknocker on the feet, one Dern's got a great chin."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

The MMA Guru picks Virna Jandiroba by decision, expecting a split decision. He believes Jandiroba is more focused on her career than Dern, who has personal distractions. He notes that Jandiroba has been winning against top competition (Yan Xiaonan, Amanda Lemos) and has good takedowns and control. He references their first fight where Jandiroba had control time and takedowns. He expects a low-paced fight with Jandiroba dragging Dern around, winning clearly but with one judge giving Dern a round.

split decision; Jandiroba wins 49-46
"I'm going to go with Virna Jandiroba getting this one done. She'll win it clearly, but it'll be a split decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Zane picks Dern, citing a sinking feeling that Jandiroba will repeat her first fight mistake of being too respectful of Dern's ground game. He notes Dern's confidence and power on the feet, and believes Jandiroba's negative game plan will lead to her being outworked. However, he acknowledges Jandiroba's improvements and calls it a hope-based pick.

"I'm going to pick Mackenzie Dern, cause I just have a sinking feeling that Verna is, this is going to be the rare opponent where she actually has respect for her ground game and it's going to trick herself into …"
WIN vs Yan Xiaonan
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yan Xiaonan 0 17 of 44 38% 64 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:27
Virna Jandiroba 0 11 of 20 55% 96 of 131 3 of 11 27% 3 1 9:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yan Xiaonan 0 6 of 17 35% 31 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Virna Jandiroba 0 4 of 9 44% 18 of 31 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:03
2 Yan Xiaonan 0 4 of 6 66% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:27
Virna Jandiroba 0 0 of 1 0% 40 of 51 1 of 1 100% 2 1 4:14
3 Yan Xiaonan 0 7 of 21 33% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Virna Jandiroba 0 7 of 10 70% 38 of 49 1 of 5 20% 1 0 2:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yan Xiaonan 17 of 44 38% 13 of 34 3 of 7 1 of 3 12 of 38 0 of 0 5 of 6
Virna Jandiroba 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 16 0 of 1 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yan Xiaonan 6 of 17 35% 4 of 11 2 of 4 0 of 2 5 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Virna Jandiroba 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1
2 Yan Xiaonan 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5
Virna Jandiroba 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yan Xiaonan 7 of 21 33% 5 of 17 1 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Virna Jandiroba 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 2
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Virna Jandiroba

Daniel Levi credits Yan Xiaonan for surviving three rounds on the mat with Virna Jandiroba despite being a blue belt, but acknowledges Jandiroba's victory. He states Jandiroba earned her title shot and should face Zhang Weili next.

"Verna Jeanji Doba and Yan Jean. Yeah. You know, firstly, credit to Yan Jean. you know, you're a blue belt and you survived three rounds on the mat with arguably one of the best black belts... And for Verna, congrats, …"
WIN vs Amanda Lemos
Submission (armbar) R2 4:48 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 2 of 9 22% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:51
Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 8 25% 20 of 27 1 of 5 20% 4 1 6:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 1 of 1 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:26
Amanda Lemos 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 9 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:42
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 1 of 8 12% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 7 28% 12 of 18 0 of 4 0% 2 1 2:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 2 of 9 22% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Amanda Lemos 2 of 8 25% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Amanda Lemos 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Virna Jandiroba 1 of 8 12% 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 2 of 7 28% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba because she will grind and get takedowns, neutralizing Amanda Lemos's striking. He notes that Lemos is the better mixed martial artist but cannot defend takedowns. He plans to wait for prop bets, especially the takedown line, and considers Jandiroba affordable at even money.

waiting for prop bets, especially takedown line
"I've got to pick Verna here this is definitely a steep test it'll be her first five round fight at first Main Event she is Affordable at even money"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Cody picks Jandiroba, emphasizing her freakish strength, takedown ability, and durability. He notes Lemos has cardio issues and has been taken down repeatedly by lesser grapplers. He expects Jandiroba to bank rounds with top control as Lemos fades, though he admits the fight likely goes to decision and could be a weird judging outcome. He suggests live betting Jandiroba after Lemos wins early rounds.

"I'm gonna chase the other side and go Verna."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Daniel Vreeland leans with Virna Jandiroba due to her world-class Jiu-Jitsu and unorthodox takedown entries, believing she can take down Amanda Lemos and possibly secure a submission early. He notes that Lemos has a significant power edge and could get a late knockout if Jandiroba gasses, but he trusts Jandiroba's early dominance. He also mentions that Lemos has shown vulnerability to submissions, referencing the standing arm triangle loss to Andrade.

"I'm GNA lean with Verna janida because I do think she's going to have that early um upside you know in terms of getting those takedowns in terms of those near submission attempts possibly getting a submission attempt and wearing …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Jandiroba is a -130 favorite. She has a smothering grappling style and excellent cardio, which should wear down Lemos in the later rounds. Lemos has power but questionable takedown defense and cardio. Jandiroba's chin has held up, and she can take Lemos down, take her back, and eventually find a submission in the third or fourth round. Lemos could finish early, but if she doesn't, Jandiroba will dominate.

submission
"I'm going to say jandi Roba by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Paul thinks Lemos is the better striker and can hang on the mat against Jandiroba, citing her durability in going five rounds with Zhang Weili and surviving takedowns from Mackenzie Dern. He acknowledges Jandiroba's grappling edge but believes Lemos can avoid submissions and win rounds with damage. He calls it close to a pick 'em fight but leans Lemos at plus money.

"I'm kind of tempted by Amanda Lemos in this spot... close to a pick 'em fight but give me Amanda Lemos at plus 110."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

The MMA Guru picks Virna Jandiroba after initially considering Lemos. He recalls Lemos' grappling being exposed by Zhang Weili, who had 16 minutes of control time. He notes Jandiroba has never been finished and had close fights with Amanda Ribas and Marina Rodriguez. He trusts the favorite Jandiroba despite not wanting her to succeed.

"I'll go jander Roba I'll Trust in a favorite here I'll go jandera"
WIN vs Loopy Godinez
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Mar 30, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 30 of 108 27% 86 of 180 2 of 9 22% 3 1 6:35
Loopy Godinez 0 38 of 95 40% 50 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 12 of 45 26% 18 of 53 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:47
Loopy Godinez 0 13 of 34 38% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 5 of 21 23% 38 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:31
Loopy Godinez 0 9 of 26 34% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:57
3 Virna Jandiroba 0 13 of 42 30% 30 of 64 1 of 4 25% 3 0 2:17
Loopy Godinez 0 16 of 35 45% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 30 of 108 27% 27 of 100 3 of 8 0 of 0 30 of 106 0 of 2 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 38 of 95 40% 25 of 79 11 of 14 2 of 2 30 of 82 7 of 11 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 12 of 45 26% 12 of 44 0 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 13 of 34 38% 9 of 28 4 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Virna Jandiroba 5 of 21 23% 5 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 9 of 26 34% 6 of 23 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 22 1 of 2 1 of 2
3 Virna Jandiroba 13 of 42 30% 10 of 35 3 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 16 of 35 45% 10 of 28 6 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 30 3 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Angelo picks Loopy Godinez, believing she is better everywhere, including wrestling. He notes Virna Jandiroba is a grinder with a one-dimensional game plan of shooting takedowns. He thinks Godinez's striking improvements and defensive wrestling will be enough to win, though he acknowledges Jandiroba's relentless takedown attempts could be a problem.

"lupy is better than Verna janer Roba literally everywhere even wrestling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 25, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by decision, but expresses concern about her fight IQ. He believes Godinez should keep the fight standing to avoid Jandiroba's dangerous BJJ, but worries she might wrestle unnecessarily. He thinks Godinez is the much better striker and should stuff takedowns, but is not fully confident due to her past poor decisions.

minus 180
"give me loopy I'll take it to win by decision um minus 180 uh I don't know I don't know if I can trust her but I'll take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Cody believes Godinez is the better boxer and wrestler, with superior cardio and durability. He thinks Jandiroba's one-dimensional grappling won't be enough, and even if she gets takedowns, Godinez will survive and win rounds with striking volume.

"would have to go lupy ginz"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Daniel Vreeland picks Loopy Godinez, citing her superior striking, power, and athleticism. He thinks she can keep the fight standing and use a sprawl-and-brawl game plan to avoid Jandiroba's dangerous jiu-jitsu. He notes Jandiroba's willingness to stand and trade, which plays into Godinez's hands. He predicts Godinez by decision.

"official pick loopy decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Godinez has improved striking and wrestling advantage. Jandiroba's hands are poor; she got outboxed by McKenzie Dern and Amanda Lemos. Godinez should keep the fight standing and land punches, potentially earning her first UFC knockout. The plus 750 KO prop is worth a sprinkle. Godinez controls pace and location.

Godinez by knockout (+750)
"I believe the last I saw was plus 750 H her to win by knockout worth a little bit of a Sprinkle"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Paul sees Godinez as the more versatile fighter, able to win on the feet or with wrestling. He notes Jandiroba's aging and limited striking, and expects Godinez to outwork her over three rounds, likely by decision.

"loopy by decision is how I kind of see this one shaking out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

The host picks Loopy Godinez, stating he never picks Virna Jandiroba. He believes Godinez can keep the fight on the feet and has a boxing and grit advantage. He thinks Godinez's grappling is good enough to defend takedowns and that she will win a decision, possibly 29-28. He notes that close decisions tend to go against Jandiroba.

decision win
"I am gonna go lupy godinez because I'm never picking Vera jander Roba to win a fight there's a rule I have not picking her"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 33 of 62 53% 115 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 27 of 43 62% 91 of 116 3 of 7 42% 0 1 12:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 7 of 9 77% 18 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 4 of 7 57% 31 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:36
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 5 of 11 45% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 16 68% 34 of 40 1 of 4 25% 0 1 4:06
3 Virna Jandiroba 0 21 of 42 50% 70 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 12 of 20 60% 26 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 33 of 62 53% 27 of 52 5 of 8 1 of 2 10 of 37 3 of 3 20 of 22
Marina Rodriguez 27 of 43 62% 25 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 22 5 of 5 15 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 6
Marina Rodriguez 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Virna Jandiroba 5 of 11 45% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 3
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 8
3 Virna Jandiroba 21 of 42 50% 19 of 37 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 28 1 of 1 11 of 13
Marina Rodriguez 12 of 20 60% 10 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but warns it feels like a trap and advises not to bet on it. He believes Marina has a clear striking advantage and will land cleanly, while Virna Jandiroba's head movement is poor. The fight comes down to Marina's takedown defense; if she can keep it standing, she wins. Angelo thinks Virna will have some success diving for legs, but judges will favor Marina's clean striking. He is not touching this fight with his money.

do not bet on this fight - feels like a trap
"Marina's gonna be the pick but for just absolute shit's sake do not bet on this fight this feels like a trap"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Big Brady picks Jandiroba, citing her superior wrestling and grappling. He notes Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and get-up game, and Jandiroba is dangerous on top. He believes Jandiroba will get takedowns and submit Rodriguez, predicting a second-round submission. He dismisses Rodriguez's takedown defense against Mackenzie Dern as irrelevant because Dern has poor wrestling.

Second round submission prediction
"I'm actually going to go with we're going to generobo to win this fight by submission I think she's going to get a ton of opportunities here to get that submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Cody sees a clear path for Jandiroba via her superior wrestling. He notes that Rodriguez gives up takedowns in every fight, and Jandiroba is a strong wrestler with good top game. He expects Jandiroba to take her down, control her, and win a decision or possibly a submission. He likes the plus money.

"I would take the plus money shot here on gender Robo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Connor agrees, noting Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she reaches for strikes, while Rodriguez is durable and has never been submitted. He sees the fight getting harder for Jandiroba as it goes on, similar to Rodriguez's fight with Ribas where Ribas got knocked out after an early takedown.

Rodriguez opened -190, now -128; Jandiroba opened +169, now +116.
"I think I have to agree with that with not a whole lot to add."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host picks Marina Rodriguez by decision. He believes Rodriguez's improved takedown defense and striking will keep the fight standing, where she can land significant strikes. He acknowledges Jandiroba's BJJ threat but trusts Rodriguez's recent improvements to nullify it.

"I'm hoping from the improvements that we've been seeing from Rodriguez over our last several fights she'll be able to keep this fight upright land the more significant strikes and get her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Paul has already bet Jandiroba at +140. He agrees that her wrestling is the key, as Rodriguez has been taken down by everyone. He expects Jandiroba to make it ugly, hold her against the cage, and win a close decision.

"I took a stale plus 140 the market moved a little bit but I still think I like plus 125s"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The Guru picks Rodriguez, stating she is better in all areas, especially on the feet. He believes her grappling has improved enough to survive Jandiroba's ground game, and that she is a better version of Amanda Ribas, who beat Jandiroba. He predicts a decision win.

decision win
"I'm gonna side with Marina Rodriguez here ... bouncing back with a decision win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez because Jandiroba is unlikely to get an early submission, and Rodriguez gets harder to take down as fights go on. He notes Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she struggles on the back foot, while Rodriguez's pressure and durability should take over in later rounds. He compares it to Rodriguez's win over Amanda Ribas.

Rodriguez opened -190, now -128; Jandiroba opened +169, now +116; odds tightening but Zane thinks it's not deserved.
"I just don't trust Jandiroba to get into the kind of insane exchanges that Rodriguez creates one way or the other."
WIN vs Angela Hill
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 14 of 60 23% 92 of 151 3 of 8 37% 0 0 7:04
Angela Hill 0 21 of 55 38% 44 of 86 1 of 2 50% 0 1 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 5 of 21 23% 16 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:17
Angela Hill 0 4 of 17 23% 11 of 25 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 6 of 27 22% 30 of 57 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:44
Angela Hill 0 12 of 27 44% 16 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:13
3 Virna Jandiroba 0 3 of 12 25% 46 of 62 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:03
Angela Hill 0 5 of 11 45% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 14 of 60 23% 13 of 52 1 of 8 0 of 0 13 of 58 1 of 2 0 of 0
Angela Hill 21 of 55 38% 14 of 42 7 of 13 0 of 0 19 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 5 of 21 23% 4 of 16 1 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Angela Hill 4 of 17 23% 3 of 11 1 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Virna Jandiroba 6 of 27 22% 6 of 24 0 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Angela Hill 12 of 27 44% 6 of 20 6 of 7 0 of 0 10 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Virna Jandiroba 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Angela Hill 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Angela Hill vs. Virna Jandiroba
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jandiroba (-165), Hill (+145)

Round 1
For the victor, a spot will remain in the top 15 of the tumultuous strawweight division, while the defeated may tumble out of the rankings – and the company itself – altogether. Even though Jandiroba (17-3, 3-3 UFC) and Hill (13-11, 8-11 UFC) swam in the same circles of
Invicta Fighting Championships
’ and the UFC’s 115-pound category, their paths never crossed until tonight. These two ex-Invicta champs will receive oversight from referee Mark Smith, and do not touch ‘em up before proceeding to try and bludgeon, strangle or otherwise inflict great bodily harm on the other. Hill takes the center of the cage with one hand lower, perhaps anticipating a takedown while not remotely concerned with the Brazilian’s striking. If history is any indication, this might be a solid strategy. The stance allows Hill to stave off a takedown setup, and when she is paying attention to this, Jandiroba has two punches land across the bow. Jandiroba absorbs a right hand back, and as soon as Hill commits to punches, “Carcara” bullies her way into a takedown attempt. Jandiroba pushes Hill back across the cage to the fence, and Hill stuffs her and pushes Jandiroba over. This is not to her best interest, as Jandiroba falls to her seat and hunts for a leglock of some sort. Going for a kneebar, an ankle lock or anything she can snatch up, Hill is quickly in danger, with Hill’s left leg extended outward as Jandiroba is hanging on to it. Hill grimaces in pain as she hangs on to Jandiroba’s wrists, and Hill sits up to attempt to punch her way out of the sub and successfully does so. Jandiroba considers another submission setup, but she cannot keep Hill grounded. They stay tied up in the clinch when standing up again, and they both try to whip the other around for a takedown. Hill starts letting loose with knees to the body as Jandiroba is happy to remain tied up, and Hill looks to break off but Jandiroba is not letting go. Hill finally explodes her way out, and Jandiroba throws out a few hands while Hill is hesitant to engage. Hill swats away offense before ducking down and goes for a double, and she hits it only to get reversed as soon as they hit the mat. Jandiroba ends the round on top in an odd position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba

Round 2
Hill strikes first to begin the second round, and Jandiroba is more active and meets her in the middle with several more strikes in volume. They trade punches until Jandiroba closes in for a clinch, and after landing one knee up the middle, she abandons it and lets Hill swing back hitting air. Jandiroba goes over the top with a surprisingly effective right hand, and Hill blitzes into a tie-up so that she can hammer the midsection with a veritable bouquet of knees. Jandiroba scores a single elbow on the break, but Hill is energized, stringing three punches together as she gives chase. Hill presses forward to clinch, and they jockey for position and meet with knees on the sternum. Jandiroba breaks, and she looks for a one-two while Hill counters with a clean right hand. In the open cage, Jandiroba dives down for a takedown and practically tackles Hill over to plop her on the ground. Hill defends with a single butterfly hook as Jandiroba is on top heavily in half guard, and she cinches her own lets around Hill’s to shut down any possible escapes from “Overkill.” Jandiroba steps over to a dominant position, but instead of taking it, she snags hold of Hill’s left arm in search of an armbar or a kimura lock. Jandiroba turns it to an armbar as she falls to her back to lock it up, and Hill steps over and stacks Jandiroba up to keep the arm safe from harm. Jandiroba keeps that submission tied up as Hill’s knee crushes on Jandiroba’s jaw, and this posture of Hill along with her rocking back and forth allows Hill to make it to the third round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba

Round 3
Hill is aggressive to start the third round, and she throws hands fast and lets them go to nail Jandiroba upside the head. Jandiroba is stunned momentarily, and Hill rolls through to rip an uppercut. The punches get Jandiroba’s attention, forcing the Brazilian to shoot for a double that presses Hill to the wall. Hill keeps herself upright thanks to the fence behind her, but Jandiroba turns the corner and yanks her down to the canvas. “Overkill” instantly attacks with elbows off her back while Jandiroba is slithering her way through gain better top position, and she lines up north-south before taking Hill’s back as Hill looks to stand. Jandiroba holds on to a leg tightly to wrench Hill right back down to the ground almost as soon as Hill stands, and “Carcara” gladly lowers herself into Hill’s guard as Hill closes it around her. Time is ticking away from Hill’s chances at pulling off a comeback, and Jandiroba is comfortable wearing on Hill and working the body with short, stay-busy punches. Hill hangs on with a lock around Jandiroba’s shoulder, possibly for a straight armlock off her back, and Jandiroba wriggles her arm out and continues her smothering top control. With Jandiroba clinging to half guard, Hill explodes in an effort to get up. This does not work to her benefit, as Jandiroba follows her all the way through to take Hill’s back. With 10 seconds to spare, Hill turns Jandiroba around and gets on top, and Jandiroba throws her legs up high to prevent any offense from “Overkill” in the remainder of the match. The fight ends in this stalemate position, and as the horn sounds, Jandiroba hoots and shouts in celebration after a likely victory.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba (30-27 Jandiroba)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba (30-27 Jandiroba)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jandiroba (30-27 Jandiroba)

The Official Result
Virna Jandiroba def. Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Cody picks Hill as a dog, noting her fights are always close and competitive. He thinks Jandiroba's cardio is suspect and she may not be able to maintain takedown pressure for three rounds. He believes Hill can out-volume her on the feet and make it a close decision, though he's not highly confident.

"i'm gonna take angela hill that'll be my dog number two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Paul also leans toward Hill, calling it a dogger pass. He notes Hill's volume striking and that Jandiroba struggles to get takedowns against good grapplers. He thinks if Hill can keep it standing, she wins the volume game. However, he acknowledges Jandiroba's BJJ from top is nasty and she could bank the first two rounds.

"i think it's dogger pass though it's like you have to be really confident that vern is going to be able to get to this to the mat otherwise i think angel angela hill just out volume sir"
LOSS vs Amanda Ribas
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Ribas 0 88 of 233 37% 124 of 273 1 of 5 20% 1 0 0:43
Virna Jandiroba 1 50 of 155 32% 119 of 224 1 of 8 12% 0 0 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Ribas 0 8 of 18 44% 36 of 50 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:05
Virna Jandiroba 1 12 of 23 52% 79 of 90 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:06
2 Amanda Ribas 0 26 of 83 31% 33 of 90 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
Virna Jandiroba 0 12 of 62 19% 14 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Amanda Ribas 0 54 of 132 40% 55 of 133 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Virna Jandiroba 0 26 of 70 37% 26 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Ribas 88 of 233 37% 59 of 194 15 of 24 14 of 15 84 of 227 4 of 6 0 of 0
Virna Jandiroba 50 of 155 32% 46 of 141 4 of 14 0 of 0 46 of 148 1 of 4 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Ribas 8 of 18 44% 5 of 13 1 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Virna Jandiroba 12 of 23 52% 12 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 18 1 of 2 3 of 3
2 Amanda Ribas 26 of 83 31% 18 of 71 6 of 10 2 of 2 24 of 80 2 of 3 0 of 0
Virna Jandiroba 12 of 62 19% 9 of 57 3 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 61 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Amanda Ribas 54 of 132 40% 36 of 110 8 of 11 10 of 11 53 of 130 1 of 2 0 of 0
Virna Jandiroba 26 of 70 37% 25 of 61 1 of 9 0 of 0 26 of 69 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Big Brady slightly leans towards Virna Jandiroba to win a close decision. He acknowledges Ribas has the striking advantage, but Jandiroba's wrestling and ground game are next level. He thinks Jandiroba will get takedowns and control the fight on the mat, squeaking out a decision. He notes Ribas's takedown defense may be misleading and Jandiroba's confidence on the ground is high.

"I'm going to slightly lean with jandarova here and i'm actually going to say i'll say i'll be i'll save my decision i'll say she wins a very close decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Cody leans towards Jandiroba as a dog, noting her wrestling and grappling advantage. He thinks her striking has improved (shown against Kanako Murata). He questions Ribas's level of competition (soft wins) and thinks Jandiroba could grind out a decision if she gets top control. He calls it a pass but sees value on the dog.

"if i was gonna take that first underdog shot it might be an averted chandranova"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Daniel slightly leans with Amanda Ribas, citing her athleticism and cleaner striking. He acknowledges her chin is a concern and that Jandiroba has improved stand-up and strong jiu-jitsu. Daniel thinks Ribas can keep the fight on the outside and out-hustle Jandiroba to a decision, but he is not fully confident due to Ribas's durability issues.

"i still am slightly leaning with a amanda heba so give me her for the dub"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Jandiroba is the better grappler and will likely take Ribas down and control her. Ribas' striking is flashy but she gets in trouble against pressure. Jandiroba should land takedowns and grind out a decision, especially if she trusts her jiu-jitsu.

Jandiroba by decision.
"I like the januaroba side here plus 145 and it looks like the money is coming in on amanda hebas."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Paul picks Ribas by decision, citing her speed and striking ability. He thinks her ability to get in and out of the pocket will be the difference. He sees the line as close to correct.

"i got rebus winning probably by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas clearly. He states she is better on the feet and on the ground. He notes that Jandiroba was outstruck by Mackenzie Dern, while Ribas danced around Dern. He dismisses Jandiroba's grappling threat and cardio. He predicts Ribas will win by unanimous decision, dancing around for three rounds, 30-27.

"this is ribassa's fight in my opinion pretty clearly"
Marina Rodriguez - Fight History
KO R2 2:07 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 4 of 17 23% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 16 of 41 39% 73 of 120 2 of 3 66% 0 0 5:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 2 of 13 15% 5 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 11 of 25 44% 42 of 63 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:34
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 5 of 16 31% 31 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 4 of 17 23% 3 of 14 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 16 of 41 39% 12 of 32 2 of 6 2 of 3 6 of 20 0 of 0 10 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 2 of 13 15% 2 of 11 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 11 of 25 44% 7 of 17 2 of 5 2 of 3 6 of 17 0 of 0 5 of 8
2 Marina Rodriguez 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 5 of 16 31% 5 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 13
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo points out that Marina Rodriguez has poor takedown defense, which Gillian Robertson can exploit with her grappling. He acknowledges that Robertson's takedowns are not spectacular but should be sufficient. He expects Robertson to get the fight to the ground and control it, though he notes it could be a close decision due to Rodriguez's striking ability.

"Jillian is the pick. And because Marina is so battle tested, this could be a split decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady is confident in Gillian Robertson, citing a clear stylistic advantage. He explains that Marina Rodriguez has poor willingness to get up after being taken down, and at 38 years old, she won't improve that. Robertson is younger and will take Rodriguez down, control her on the ground, and cruise to a 30-27 decision. He notes that Rodriguez has survived finishes against solid grapplers but loses minutes on bottom.

Decision win
"Got to be Robertson here. Um she's much younger. Um I think she's been looking great at Strowway."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

This is a clear striker vs grappler matchup. Robertson has the grappling advantage and should exploit Rodriguez's poor takedown defense and getups. I expect Robertson to secure a submission victory.

submission
"I fully expect Robertson to grind this fight out, landing those opportune takedowns and taking advantage of the poor takedown defense and getups of Rodriguez, which should eventually lead to Robertson landing and securing a submission victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez as an underdog, despite originally leaning towards Gillian Robertson. He argues that Robertson's offensive wrestling isn't at the level of others who have taken Rodriguez down, and that Rodriguez will outland her on the feet. He believes Rodriguez has good takedown defense and has survived submission attempts from Mackenzie Dern. He predicts Rodriguez wins on damage, possibly by third-round TKO.

underdog pick at +260, possible third-round TKO
"I'm going to go with Marina Rodriguez pulling off the upset here as a plus 260 underdog."
LOSS vs Iasmin Lucindo
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 33 of 99 33% 65 of 134 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Marina Rodriguez 0 30 of 73 41% 55 of 104 3 of 4 75% 0 1 4:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 5 of 25 20% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 33 33% 20 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 16 of 37 43% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 24 41% 24 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:08
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 12 of 37 32% 26 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 9 of 16 56% 11 of 23 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 33 of 99 33% 28 of 89 5 of 7 0 of 3 28 of 92 3 of 5 2 of 2
Marina Rodriguez 30 of 73 41% 19 of 56 9 of 13 2 of 4 27 of 68 1 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 5 of 25 20% 4 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 2 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 33 33% 4 of 21 5 of 8 2 of 4 10 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Iasmin Lucindo 16 of 37 43% 13 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 1 14 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 10 of 24 41% 6 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 12 of 37 32% 11 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 33 1 of 2 2 of 2
Marina Rodriguez 9 of 16 56% 9 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling, and pressure. He notes Marina Rodriguez has subpar takedown defense and a weak get-up game, which Lucindo can exploit. However, he is concerned about Lucindo's cardio at elevation, as she needs to grind for 15 minutes. He does not bet on this fight due to the elevation risk.

No bet due to elevation concerns
"I am on the eisan lucendo side... but the fact that I need her to be in phenomenal shape and grind for 15 minutes does worry me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22 vs 37) and wrestling advantage. He notes that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and struggles to get back up when taken down. He expects Lucindo to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges the line is a bit steep for someone unproven.

"I got to go lendo here minus 190 it is a little crazy like she is only 22 years old she hasn't proven a ton but I just think that you know she's getting Rodriguez here at the at the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez as a dog, citing her experience and power. He questions Lucindo's level of competition and believes Rodriguez can keep the fight standing and land bigger shots. He expects Rodriguez to win by decision or late finish.

"I'll take the dog shot here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Connor picks Lucindo despite acknowledging her technical flaws. He notes that Rodriguez has looked shell-shocked lately and may lose confidence if Lucindo's speed and early pressure put her behind. However, he admits Lucindo is not a complex striker and Rodriguez could take over if she finds her rhythm.

"I'm going to take the Lucendo pick. Yeah. I will too. Why not? Just take the chance."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Daniel Vreeland picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth and takedown ability. He notes that Marina Rodriguez has always struggled with takedown defense, even in her prime, and at 37 it will be worse. Lucindo has landed eight takedowns in her last three fights. Vreeland expects Lucindo to use her wrestling to control the fight and win a decision.

"I think lucendo is going to play this SM she's a young veteran 22 years old"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host leans with veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez, believing she is the better striker. He thinks Lucindo does not control opponents on the mat well enough, forcing her to strike with the better striker and ultimately lose on the scorecards. He predicts Rodriguez by decision.

"I will have to lean with the veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez I think she's the better Striker here and I don't think lucendo does a good enough job in terms of controlling her opponents on the mat"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul leans toward Rodriguez, noting her experience against top competition. He thinks Lucindo is being overvalued and that Rodriguez's defensive grappling is underrated. He sees value at plus 150.

"plus 150 I think you could do a lot worse than Marina Rodriguez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Iasmin Lucindo, despite acknowledging Lucindo's physical advantages. He believes Rodriguez has better performances against higher competition, citing wins over Michelle Waterson and a close split decision with Jessica Andrade. He notes Rodriguez's technique and composure will be key at altitude, and predicts a decision win.

"I'm going to go Marina Rodriguez better performances against better comp"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane also picks Lucindo, citing her speed and youth as advantages. He notes that Rodriguez has struggled recently and may not recover if Lucindo builds an early lead. However, he acknowledges that Lucindo's lack of range control and technical gaps could allow Rodriguez to take over.

"Might just take the speed pick for Lucendo just to go out there and surprise her and be young and improving."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 89 of 180 49% 124 of 220 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:53
Marina Rodriguez 0 82 of 228 35% 94 of 241 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 14 of 23 60% 49 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Marina Rodriguez 0 16 of 36 44% 27 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jéssica Andrade 0 42 of 86 48% 42 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Marina Rodriguez 0 35 of 107 32% 35 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jéssica Andrade 0 33 of 71 46% 33 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
Marina Rodriguez 0 31 of 85 36% 32 of 86 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 89 of 180 49% 35 of 110 14 of 18 40 of 52 79 of 165 7 of 11 3 of 4
Marina Rodriguez 82 of 228 35% 70 of 207 9 of 17 3 of 4 77 of 220 5 of 6 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 14 of 23 60% 2 of 7 1 of 2 11 of 14 11 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 4
Marina Rodriguez 16 of 36 44% 9 of 28 4 of 5 3 of 3 16 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Jéssica Andrade 42 of 86 48% 21 of 59 8 of 11 13 of 16 35 of 75 7 of 11 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 35 of 107 32% 34 of 104 1 of 3 0 of 0 33 of 104 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Jéssica Andrade 33 of 71 46% 12 of 44 5 of 5 16 of 22 33 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 31 of 85 36% 27 of 75 4 of 9 0 of 1 28 of 81 3 of 3 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez as the better technical fighter who can keep Andrade at range with her boxing and length. He notes Andrade's bullying style can be effective but Rodriguez should piece her up if she avoids clinch exchanges. He calls the fight dead even odds-wise and says no bets are safe.

"I am going to go Marina Rodriguez here she's just the better fighter and she's going to keep Jessica at the end of her strikes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody is torn but leans Rodriguez. He notes Andrade's inconsistency due to personal issues (divorce) and her tendency to not wrestle. Rodriguez has a clear path: counter punching. Cody points out that Andrade runs forward aggressively, which could run into Rodriguez's right hand. He also mentions Rodriguez's takedown defense is decent (66%) and she has the skills to survive if taken down. Cody thinks this is the best women's underdog on the card and picks Rodriguez to spring the upset.

"Marina seems like the best women's fighter on the card in terms of springing the upset by just catching a draw with that counter right hand so I'm going to go with Reena Rodriguez."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Connor picks Rodriguez, agreeing that Andrade's clinch deficiencies will be exploited. He notes that Rodriguez is a great clinch fighter and Andrade has poor posture and gets hit with knees. Connor also points out that Rodriguez is durable and does not slow down, while Andrade's confidence is fragile. He sees Rodriguez winning by controlling the clinch and landing strikes.

Odds: Andrade opened -112, now -135; Rodriguez opened -112, now +122. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I actually, I actually feel reasonably confident in Rodriguez here. I mean, I think Jessica looked against all odds and expectations. She looked like she recaptured her confidence against Mackenzie Dern."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Daniel Vreeland picks Jéssica Andrade, citing her power, physicality, and grappling advantage. He believes Andrade can land takedowns and control Rodriguez on the ground, and that Rodriguez lacks the power to deter her. Vreeland acknowledges Rodriguez's striking but trusts Andrade's durability and aggression.

"I got Andrade"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He discusses the title implications, saying the winner will be in line for a title shot. He notes that Andrade always walks forward and the fight is guaranteed to be good, but does not pick a winner.

"whoever wins between Jessica Andrade and Marina Rodriguez are either going to fight for the title next or more than likely be in a number one contenders spot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Andrade should drag the fight to the ground and land ground and pound from top position. She also has power on the feet. Rodriguez has reach and height but will struggle to keep Andrade off her. Andrade wins on the scorecards.

decision
"I think we see Andra win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees, noting that Andrade doesn't wrestle enough and Rodriguez has a striking advantage. He points out that Andrade's recent wins over Mackenzie Dern and Lauren Murphy were impressive, but she has also looked terrible against Tatiana Suarez and Erin Blanchfield. Paul thinks Rodriguez's counter right hand is a real threat and that Andrade's aggressive style plays into it. He mentions that if you're looking for a dog with a clear path, Rodriguez is it.

"I wanted to disagree with you but I'm going to side with you cuz all I do is pick woman's under dos one of them's going to hit."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by TKO, criticizing Jéssica Andrade for making Erin Blanchfield look competent. He believes Rodriguez will be patient, outpoint Andrade on the outside, and land knees and elbows in the clinch. He predicts Andrade will rush in and walk into strikes.

"I'm going with Marina Rodriguez by TKO because there is no way in hell I'm picking a girl to win a fight that just made me believe that Erin blanchfield has ever thrown a punch before in her life."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez, citing her clinch game and size advantage. He notes that Andrade is terrible in the clinch despite her strength, and Rodriguez is a powerful clinch fighter. Zane argues that Andrade's confidence is unreliable and that Rodriguez's durability and pressure will wear her down. He also mentions that Andrade's recent win over Mackenzie Dern may have been a confidence boost, but Rodriguez is a tougher matchup.

Odds: Andrade opened -112, now -135; Rodriguez opened -112, now +122. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I'm going to go with you and pick, uh, pick Rodriguez here. I just, I do think that without the clinch to fall into, it's a really bad matchup for András."
TKO (punches) R2 2:42 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 70 of 102 68% 90 of 130 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:03
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 13 of 32 40% 16 of 37 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 51 of 75 68% 67 of 99 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 10 of 20 50% 13 of 25 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:09
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 19 of 27 70% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 70 of 102 68% 47 of 70 22 of 30 1 of 2 12 of 23 53 of 73 5 of 6
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 13 of 32 40% 7 of 23 5 of 7 1 of 2 4 of 17 7 of 9 2 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 51 of 75 68% 38 of 56 13 of 19 0 of 0 6 of 13 45 of 62 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 10 of 20 50% 5 of 15 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 7 6 of 7 2 of 6
2 Marina Rodriguez 19 of 27 70% 9 of 14 9 of 11 1 of 2 6 of 10 8 of 11 5 of 6
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 3 of 12 25% 2 of 8 1 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo trusts Marina slightly more to push the action and keep her boxing in Michelle's face. He notes Michelle has more dynamic striking and experience but is inconsistent. He thinks the fight likely goes to decision and suggests betting over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds, potentially plus 3.5 on Michelle
"I trust Marina just to smidge more in this matchup to push the action keep her boxing in Michelle's face"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez confidently, expecting a decision win. He notes Rodriguez is the better striker with power, while Waterson-Gomez has zero power and relies on volume. He thinks the fight will stay standing and Rodriguez will do more damage. He mentions Waterson-Gomez could try takedowns but doubts she will. He calls the rematch unnecessary.

"give me a give me Rodriguez here to win this fight and win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Marina Rodriguez by decision, expecting a similar outcome to their first fight. He notes Rodriguez's size, output, and ability to stuff takedowns, while Waterson has declined and struggles to implement her grappling. He sees no significant improvements from Waterson and believes Rodriguez will outwork her again.

"I'm sure I'm using too many words on this fight at this point so let's just go ahead and call it a marina Rodriguez by decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel is confident Rodriguez wins, citing her massive volume and reach advantage on the feet. He rewatched their first fight and saw Rodriguez dominate until getting taken down in round 4. He believes if Rodriguez avoids extended time on bottom, she will out-strike Waterson decisively. He notes Waterson's low output and age (37) as concerns, and thinks Rodriguez covers the -300 line.

considers laying -300 straight; mentions -3.5 point spread as an option
"I think Marina Rodriguez is going to double her up on strikes for at least two of the rounds and hold on for deer life in that one round that she does get taken down I think she covers this …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Lucrative James is confident Rodriguez will win, calling Waterson washed and not good on the ground. He thinks Rodriguez will piece her up and sees value at -300, estimating her true probability at 85%. He also considers betting the under or Rodriguez by KO, but is wary of recent losses on women's unders.

under 2.5 rounds +260 considered; Rodriguez KO considered
"Marina Rodriguez gonna beat her up... she's a clear favorite in this spot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host picks Rodriguez at minus 300, expecting a repeat of their first fight where Rodriguez battered Waterson-Gomez on the feet. He notes Waterson-Gomez's underrated BJJ but poor wrestling to get the fight down, and that Rodriguez's takedown defense and clinch work (knees, elbows) will keep it standing. He acknowledges both are on losing streaks but sees Rodriguez as the younger, more powerful striker who wins by decision.

"give me Rodriguez and I think she wins this fight by decision and a minus 300 but the line makes sense"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Rodriguez, but won't bet at -300. He likes Rodriguez's over 70.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks, noting she landed 78 in the first fight. He thinks Waterson's takedown threat is minimal and Rodriguez will out-strike her again.

Over 70.5 significant strikes for Rodriguez on PrizePicks.
"I like Rodriguez but you know me I'm never getting to a minus 300. the CF dog just tells me to pass... I'll take a little sprinkle on some of my prize picks entries on Rodriguez over uh 70.5 significant …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru confidently picks Marina Rodriguez, noting she already beat Michelle Waterson in their first fight, winning 4-1 on rounds. He criticizes Waterson's three-fight losing streak and questions the rematch. He defends Rodriguez's loss to Amanda Lemos as an early stoppage and praises her grappling awareness against Mackenzie Dern. He believes Rodriguez's striking and overall game are clearly superior.

"Rodriguez here... Marina Rodriguez is going to win she lost to Amanda Lemos by early stoppage it was an early stoppage 100..."
LOSS vs Virna Jandiroba
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 33 of 62 53% 115 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 27 of 43 62% 91 of 116 3 of 7 42% 0 1 12:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 7 of 9 77% 18 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 4 of 7 57% 31 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:36
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 5 of 11 45% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 16 68% 34 of 40 1 of 4 25% 0 1 4:06
3 Virna Jandiroba 0 21 of 42 50% 70 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 12 of 20 60% 26 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 33 of 62 53% 27 of 52 5 of 8 1 of 2 10 of 37 3 of 3 20 of 22
Marina Rodriguez 27 of 43 62% 25 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 22 5 of 5 15 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 6
Marina Rodriguez 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Virna Jandiroba 5 of 11 45% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 3
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 8
3 Virna Jandiroba 21 of 42 50% 19 of 37 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 28 1 of 1 11 of 13
Marina Rodriguez 12 of 20 60% 10 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but warns it feels like a trap and advises not to bet on it. He believes Marina has a clear striking advantage and will land cleanly, while Virna Jandiroba's head movement is poor. The fight comes down to Marina's takedown defense; if she can keep it standing, she wins. Angelo thinks Virna will have some success diving for legs, but judges will favor Marina's clean striking. He is not touching this fight with his money.

do not bet on this fight - feels like a trap
"Marina's gonna be the pick but for just absolute shit's sake do not bet on this fight this feels like a trap"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Big Brady picks Jandiroba, citing her superior wrestling and grappling. He notes Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and get-up game, and Jandiroba is dangerous on top. He believes Jandiroba will get takedowns and submit Rodriguez, predicting a second-round submission. He dismisses Rodriguez's takedown defense against Mackenzie Dern as irrelevant because Dern has poor wrestling.

Second round submission prediction
"I'm actually going to go with we're going to generobo to win this fight by submission I think she's going to get a ton of opportunities here to get that submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Cody sees a clear path for Jandiroba via her superior wrestling. He notes that Rodriguez gives up takedowns in every fight, and Jandiroba is a strong wrestler with good top game. He expects Jandiroba to take her down, control her, and win a decision or possibly a submission. He likes the plus money.

"I would take the plus money shot here on gender Robo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Connor agrees, noting Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she reaches for strikes, while Rodriguez is durable and has never been submitted. He sees the fight getting harder for Jandiroba as it goes on, similar to Rodriguez's fight with Ribas where Ribas got knocked out after an early takedown.

Rodriguez opened -190, now -128; Jandiroba opened +169, now +116.
"I think I have to agree with that with not a whole lot to add."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host picks Marina Rodriguez by decision. He believes Rodriguez's improved takedown defense and striking will keep the fight standing, where she can land significant strikes. He acknowledges Jandiroba's BJJ threat but trusts Rodriguez's recent improvements to nullify it.

"I'm hoping from the improvements that we've been seeing from Rodriguez over our last several fights she'll be able to keep this fight upright land the more significant strikes and get her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Paul has already bet Jandiroba at +140. He agrees that her wrestling is the key, as Rodriguez has been taken down by everyone. He expects Jandiroba to make it ugly, hold her against the cage, and win a close decision.

"I took a stale plus 140 the market moved a little bit but I still think I like plus 125s"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The Guru picks Rodriguez, stating she is better in all areas, especially on the feet. He believes her grappling has improved enough to survive Jandiroba's ground game, and that she is a better version of Amanda Ribas, who beat Jandiroba. He predicts a decision win.

decision win
"I'm gonna side with Marina Rodriguez here ... bouncing back with a decision win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez because Jandiroba is unlikely to get an early submission, and Rodriguez gets harder to take down as fights go on. He notes Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she struggles on the back foot, while Rodriguez's pressure and durability should take over in later rounds. He compares it to Rodriguez's win over Amanda Ribas.

Rodriguez opened -190, now -128; Jandiroba opened +169, now +116; odds tightening but Zane thinks it's not deserved.
"I just don't trust Jandiroba to get into the kind of insane exchanges that Rodriguez creates one way or the other."
LOSS vs Amanda Lemos
TKO (punches) R3 0:54 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Nov 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 19 of 52 36% 44 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Marina Rodriguez 0 29 of 53 54% 43 of 67 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 9 of 29 31% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 18 61% 11 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Amanda Lemos 0 4 of 15 26% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 8 of 16 50% 22 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:06
3 Amanda Lemos 0 6 of 8 75% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 19 of 52 36% 6 of 26 3 of 8 10 of 18 18 of 51 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marina Rodriguez 29 of 53 54% 16 of 36 10 of 13 3 of 4 25 of 48 3 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 9 of 29 31% 1 of 9 1 of 5 7 of 15 8 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 18 61% 4 of 9 4 of 6 3 of 3 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 4 of 15 26% 1 of 11 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 8 of 16 50% 4 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 1 5 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1
3 Amanda Lemos 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 10 of 19 52% 8 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Rodriguez, expecting her volume to be the difference. He notes she needs to avoid Lemos's power and stay technical, following the blueprint Angela Hill almost used. He acknowledges Lemos is dangerous with 7 stoppage wins and considers a no-action bet on Lemos by stoppage.

this may be a mandala most win inside the distance decision no choking decision no action bet if a Mandela most wins by submission or knockout I'll get paid if she loses a decision which is the most likely outcome I'll get a full refund
"I do have Marina winning I think it's sort of the volume that does it but she needs to avoid the power stay Technical and beat Amanda the same way that Angela hill almost did"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady cites Lemos's cardio concerns in a five-round fight, noting she has never gone past three rounds. He believes Rodriguez has improved takedown defense and better cardio, and will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts Rodriguez will finish a tired Lemos in the third or fourth round by knockout.

Rodriguez wins by knockout in round 4
"I like Rodriguez here to win I'm gonna take her to win by fourth round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her recent run as a viable title challenger, experience in five-round fights, and superior striking volume and power. He notes her takedown defense and ability to survive on the ground, as seen against MacKenzie Dern. He is not sold on Amanda Lemos, pointing to her age, lack of a big win, and close split decision against Angela Hill. He predicts Rodriguez wins by decision, but is not running to the book to bet at the current line.

Marina Rodriguez by decision
"I will take Marina Rodriguez Marina Rodriguez by decision but you know I'm not I'm not running to the book you say and take my money"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel Levi leans Marina Rodriguez, citing her durability and ability to pull away in later rounds (third, fourth, fifth) as Lemos fades. He notes Rodriguez's slow starts and vulnerability to takedowns, as she struggles to get up from bottom, but believes her volume and cardio advantage will overcome Lemos's early power. He mentions the line (-210) is a bit wide and does not have a bet on this fight.

No bet; line considered wide
"I lean with Marina Rodriguez... I don't have a bet on this fight and I don't really have an interest in betting this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host believes Rodriguez's durability, cardio, and disciplined striking will overcome Lemos's early power. He notes Lemos fades after round one and telegraphs her shots, while Rodriguez has experience going five rounds. He predicts a late TKO (round 5) as Lemos fades, but also sees decision as likely.

Rodriguez round 5 TKO; round 4 or 5 decision
"give me Marina Rodriguez round five TKO I think glamos will be on fumes by that point"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Cody's points but struggles with the -220 price, which implies nearly 69% win probability. He thinks 7-3 Rodriguez is reasonable but not a betting opportunity. He does not like the decision prop because he questions Lemos's cardio in five rounds, noting she has been finished or finished early in previous five-round fights. He is considering the under on total rounds, possibly getting plus money, and will wait for weigh-ins to see if Lemos has a bad weight cut. He picks Rodriguez for the show but will not attack the -220 line.

under on total rounds (considering), Marina Rodriguez 120 significant strikes on PrizePicks (considering)
"Marina Rodriguez is the pick for the purposes of the show I'm not gonna be attacking the minus 220 though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez, noting Lemos's power has been absorbed by durable opponents like Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill. He believes Rodriguez's boxing, chin, and own power will surprise Lemos. He predicts a decision win (48-47 or 49-46) as Lemos may hesitate in a five-round fight, while Rodriguez's grappling defense is a concern but not an issue if it stays standing.

48-47 or 49-46 decision
"I'm going Marina Rodriguez here... I'll go 48 47 49 46 Marina Rodriguez but she loses the first round."
WIN vs Yan Xiaonan
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 72 of 200 36% 79 of 207 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Yan Xiaonan 0 56 of 132 42% 66 of 143 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 18 of 48 37% 18 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yan Xiaonan 0 24 of 54 44% 25 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:04
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 14 of 45 31% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Yan Xiaonan 0 14 of 34 41% 22 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:29
3 Marina Rodriguez 0 40 of 107 37% 41 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Yan Xiaonan 0 18 of 44 40% 19 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 72 of 200 36% 46 of 166 18 of 19 8 of 15 59 of 182 13 of 18 0 of 0
Yan Xiaonan 56 of 132 42% 37 of 105 7 of 9 12 of 18 48 of 121 8 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 18 of 48 37% 9 of 35 4 of 5 5 of 8 16 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Yan Xiaonan 24 of 54 44% 18 of 42 2 of 4 4 of 8 21 of 50 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Marina Rodriguez 14 of 45 31% 9 of 38 4 of 4 1 of 3 9 of 38 5 of 7 0 of 0
Yan Xiaonan 14 of 34 41% 7 of 26 4 of 4 3 of 4 11 of 29 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Marina Rodriguez 40 of 107 37% 28 of 93 10 of 10 2 of 4 34 of 99 6 of 8 0 of 0
Yan Xiaonan 18 of 44 40% 12 of 37 1 of 1 5 of 6 16 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes Marina is faster and more powerful, and that Yan has only executed a wrestle-heavy game plan once. He plans to place a plus 3.5 round bet on Yan, buying a round on the scorecard. He calls Yan 'stupid live' at the current odds.

plus 3.5 round bet on Yan Xiaonan
"marina is the pick here because we've only seen yon execute wrestling a wrestle heavy game plan one time"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez to win by decision. He believes Rodriguez will have a significant power advantage on the feet and that Yan Xiaonan is unlikely to attempt takedowns, which plays into Rodriguez's strengths. Brady notes that Rodriguez has improved her takedown defense and ground game, making it hard for Yan to take her down. He acknowledges the line is a bit steep at -250 but still favors Rodriguez to win.

Rodriguez by decision
"i'm gonna take marina rodriguez to win i'm gonna take her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody believes Rodriguez is the rightful favorite because she has never lost a striking battle and hits hard for the division. He notes her takedown defense is a concern but argues Yan's wrestling is not elite, based on tape of Yan's takedowns against Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Cody thinks if Yan can't take her down, Rodriguez wins the striking exchanges with volume and power.

"i got marina rodriguez i think she's the rightful favorite"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan as a dog, citing the plus 250 odds. He believes this will be a close, competitive striking match and that Yan has the striking acumen to edge out a decision. He notes that Marina has only landed one takedown in her UFC career, so there is little takedown threat. He acknowledges Marina's improvements but thinks the odds are too wide and Yan has value.

plus 250 odds
"i'm going with the ann zhaonan to edge out this decision so let's catch this plus 250"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

The line is too wide; this is a 50/50 fight. Yan's power striking and training at Team Alpha Male should pose problems for Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a striker but hasn't faced someone with Yan's power. Yan's takedown defense is a concern, but Rodriguez rarely grapples. At plus money, Yan is the clear value pick. Yan can outstrike Rodriguez and win a decision.

Yan via decision
"this is a coin flip of a fight maybe even again 55 percent uh marina rodriguez at best but i think it's a 50 50 fight and at these odds the clear pick has got to be yan zhaonen"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Rodriguez's striking volume and power. He is skeptical of Yan's wrestling after watching the Kowalkiewicz fight, where Yan's takedowns were not from clean entries but rather Kowalkiewicz giving up position. Paul believes if Yan cannot take Rodriguez down, she will lose the striking battle. He calls it a women's MMA fight but is confident in Rodriguez.

"i think it is mourinho rodriguez for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Yan Xiaonan, expecting a striking affair. He notes Yan's main weakness is grappling, but believes Rodriguez has improved her cardio and striking variety, using more kicks to the body and legs. He thinks Rodriguez is more powerful and tougher, predicting a 30-27 decision where she pieces Yan apart. He also expresses a hot take that Rodriguez will become champion.

"i'm going with marina rodriguez by decision 30 27 she pieces apart yan zhaonan in a competitive fight for three rounds"
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 49 of 174 28% 80 of 209 1 of 8 12% 1 1 7:21
Mackenzie Dern 0 144 of 279 51% 148 of 284 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 5 of 17 29% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Mackenzie Dern 0 24 of 49 48% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 22 45% 33 of 48 0 of 1 0% 1 1 4:21
Mackenzie Dern 0 1 of 6 16% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:06
3 Marina Rodriguez 0 8 of 35 22% 8 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
Mackenzie Dern 0 45 of 91 49% 47 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Marina Rodriguez 0 15 of 54 27% 21 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Mackenzie Dern 0 37 of 65 56% 37 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 46 23% 11 of 46 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:41
Mackenzie Dern 0 37 of 68 54% 38 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 49 of 174 28% 41 of 158 4 of 10 4 of 6 36 of 155 1 of 3 12 of 16
Mackenzie Dern 144 of 279 51% 72 of 186 39 of 58 33 of 35 124 of 257 20 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 5 of 17 29% 4 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 2 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 24 of 49 48% 9 of 31 10 of 12 5 of 6 19 of 44 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Marina Rodriguez 10 of 22 45% 10 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 9 0 of 0 9 of 13
Mackenzie Dern 1 of 6 16% 0 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marina Rodriguez 8 of 35 22% 7 of 31 0 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 45 of 91 49% 28 of 66 8 of 15 9 of 10 37 of 82 8 of 9 0 of 0
4 Marina Rodriguez 15 of 54 27% 12 of 50 1 of 2 2 of 2 11 of 49 1 of 2 3 of 3
Mackenzie Dern 37 of 65 56% 14 of 36 13 of 19 10 of 10 34 of 61 3 of 4 0 of 0
5 Marina Rodriguez 11 of 46 23% 8 of 43 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 37 of 68 54% 21 of 49 8 of 11 8 of 8 33 of 64 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez, calling her the more complete fighter with superior striking and takedown defense. He notes her wins over top competition and Dern's poor takedown accuracy. He has a money line bet on Rodriguez at plus 145. He thinks Dern's only path is submission, but Rodriguez can avoid the ground.

Marina Rodriguez money line at +145 (1 unit)
"I'm picking Marina Rodriguez. I have a money line on her at plus 145."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Big Brady, despite being a self-proclaimed Dern hater, picks her to win by submission. He notes that Dern only needs one takedown to finish the fight, and Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and ground game. He references Rodriguez being taken down by multiple opponents and her poor get-up game. Brady thinks Dern will eventually get the takedown and submit her, but he would not bet her as a favorite at these odds.

win by submission
"i will pick mackenzie during for the win and i'll take her to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Cody leans toward Dern because he believes the fight will eventually hit the ground over five rounds, where Dern's BJJ is leaps and bounds better than Rodriguez's. He notes Rodriguez has a clear striking advantage and Dern's wrestling is not elite, but Dern has shown improvements and can capitalize on scrambles. He suggests live betting Dern after she loses the early rounds, and predicts a third or fourth round submission or a decision.

live betting Dern after early rounds; third or fourth round submission or decision
"i'll go with dern because i think eventually this fight is going to hit the ground and that'll be her moment"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Daniel Levi acknowledges that Marina Rodriguez is a superior striker, comparing her to a young Joanna Jedrzejczyk, but he is concerned about her takedown defense. He notes that Mackenzie Dern's hands have improved under Jason Parillo and she has power, but her path to victory is getting the fight to the mat. He predicts Dern will secure a takedown and finish via submission, though he admits if Dern doesn't submit her early, the fight becomes uncertain.

submission finish
"ultimately i do see mckenzie during getting this fight to the mat and finishing via submission so i'm gonna go with mckenzie dern to submit marina rodriguez"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Jacob is extremely confident in Mackenzie Dern, calling her the lock of the week. He believes her jiu-jitsu is unmatched and that if the fight goes to the ground, she will submit Rodriguez. He dismisses Rodriguez's striking improvements and plans to bet 20 units on Dern at minus 160. He thinks Dern's striking has improved enough to get the fight to the mat.

Mackenzie Dern by submission at +150 (FanDuel); 20 units on Dern money line
"Mackenzie Dern lock of the week for like four or five in a row, I think. I won the 10 units last week. I'm going 20 units on Dern. Let's go after it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

The host picks Mackenzie Dern, citing her elite BJJ and ability to secure a takedown against Marina Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez has been taken down before (e.g., by Amanda Ribas) and that Dern's jiu-jitsu is superior. He believes Dern can remain safe on the feet long enough to close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she will likely find a submission. He also mentions the low variance of grappling compared to striking, favoring the grappler. He predicts a second-round submission.

Dern by submission +150; fight doesn't go to decision -210; Dern by TKO +1400 (mentioned as possible but less likely)
"I gotta go with the grappler in this fight... I'm going to go mackenzie dern via second round submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Paul is leaning toward Dern, acknowledging that Rodriguez has advantages on the feet but Dern's submission threat and improved striking make her dangerous. He notes Dern's wrestling is not great but she can create chaotic scrambles. He is hesitant because Dern has cost him money before, but he sees her path to victory via submission or decision.

"i'm leaning towards dern right now but i want to hear your take"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by unanimous decision as an underdog. He highlights her striking accuracy, power, and takedown defense (62%). He questions Dern's late start in sparring and believes Rodriguez's experience and reach advantage will be decisive. He advises betting on Rodriguez before odds change.

Rodriguez by unanimous decision; recommends betting on Rodriguez as underdog
"i'm actually going to go with marina rodriguez here as an underdog... i think she's much better than mackenzie durn... if i was you guys i'd get some money on her right now before the odds change"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but warns it feels like a trap and advises not to bet on it. He believes Marina has a clear striking advantage and will land cleanly, while Virna Jandiroba's head movement is poor. The fight comes down to Marina's takedown defense; if she can keep it standing, she wins. Angelo thinks Virna will have some success diving for legs, but judges will favor Marina's clean striking. He is not touching this fight with his money.

do not bet on this fight - feels like a trap
"Marina's gonna be the pick but for just absolute shit's sake do not bet on this fight this feels like a trap"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Big Brady picks Jandiroba, citing her superior wrestling and grappling. He notes Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and get-up game, and Jandiroba is dangerous on top. He believes Jandiroba will get takedowns and submit Rodriguez, predicting a second-round submission. He dismisses Rodriguez's takedown defense against Mackenzie Dern as irrelevant because Dern has poor wrestling.

Second round submission prediction
"I'm actually going to go with we're going to generobo to win this fight by submission I think she's going to get a ton of opportunities here to get that submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Cody sees a clear path for Jandiroba via her superior wrestling. He notes that Rodriguez gives up takedowns in every fight, and Jandiroba is a strong wrestler with good top game. He expects Jandiroba to take her down, control her, and win a decision or possibly a submission. He likes the plus money.

"I would take the plus money shot here on gender Robo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Connor agrees, noting Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she reaches for strikes, while Rodriguez is durable and has never been submitted. He sees the fight getting harder for Jandiroba as it goes on, similar to Rodriguez's fight with Ribas where Ribas got knocked out after an early takedown.

Rodriguez opened -190, now -128; Jandiroba opened +169, now +116.
"I think I have to agree with that with not a whole lot to add."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host picks Marina Rodriguez by decision. He believes Rodriguez's improved takedown defense and striking will keep the fight standing, where she can land significant strikes. He acknowledges Jandiroba's BJJ threat but trusts Rodriguez's recent improvements to nullify it.

"I'm hoping from the improvements that we've been seeing from Rodriguez over our last several fights she'll be able to keep this fight upright land the more significant strikes and get her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Paul has already bet Jandiroba at +140. He agrees that her wrestling is the key, as Rodriguez has been taken down by everyone. He expects Jandiroba to make it ugly, hold her against the cage, and win a close decision.

"I took a stale plus 140 the market moved a little bit but I still think I like plus 125s"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The Guru picks Rodriguez, stating she is better in all areas, especially on the feet. He believes her grappling has improved enough to survive Jandiroba's ground game, and that she is a better version of Amanda Ribas, who beat Jandiroba. He predicts a decision win.

decision win
"I'm gonna side with Marina Rodriguez here ... bouncing back with a decision win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez because Jandiroba is unlikely to get an early submission, and Rodriguez gets harder to take down as fights go on. He notes Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she struggles on the back foot, while Rodriguez's pressure and durability should take over in later rounds. He compares it to Rodriguez's win over Amanda Ribas.

Rodriguez opened -190, now -128; Jandiroba opened +169, now +116; odds tightening but Zane thinks it's not deserved.
"I just don't trust Jandiroba to get into the kind of insane exchanges that Rodriguez creates one way or the other."