vs
-560 +450
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 6"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 9"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Nathaniel Wood
5.64 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.25 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.35 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Charles Rosa
3.08 SLpM
36.0% Str. Acc.
3.86 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
1.67 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
38.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Nathaniel Wood
Moneyline
FanDuel -560
KO/TKO
FanDuel +440
Submission
BetRivers +650
Decision
BetRivers -137
Charles Rosa
Moneyline
Caesars +450
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1800
Submission
BetRivers +1300
Decision
BetRivers +1000
Nathaniel Wood - Fight History
WIN vs Losene Keita
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 0 67 of 178 37% 67 of 178 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Losene Keita 0 52 of 119 43% 52 of 119 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 17 of 56 30% 17 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Losene Keita 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 19 of 56 33% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Losene Keita 0 23 of 42 54% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 31 of 66 46% 31 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Losene Keita 0 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 67 of 178 37% 32 of 128 2 of 3 33 of 47 67 of 177 0 of 1 0 of 0
Losene Keita 52 of 119 43% 36 of 101 13 of 15 3 of 3 52 of 119 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 17 of 56 30% 7 of 42 2 of 3 8 of 11 17 of 55 0 of 1 0 of 0
Losene Keita 11 of 26 42% 8 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nathaniel Wood 19 of 56 33% 9 of 42 0 of 0 10 of 14 19 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Losene Keita 23 of 42 54% 14 of 32 7 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 31 of 66 46% 16 of 44 0 of 0 15 of 22 31 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Losene Keita 18 of 51 35% 14 of 47 3 of 3 1 of 1 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Angelo picks Losene Keita because of his devastating striking and fast sprawls, but he is not betting on him. He notes Keita missed weight in his debut and is untested, while Nathaniel Wood is a proven tough veteran who gets dropped. He respects Wood's toughness but thinks Keita's power could put him out cold. He avoids betting due to the -170 price and weight miss concerns.

no bets; -170 too high given weight miss and untested competition
"I'm gonna pick him. I'm not betting on him. No parlays, nothing. Zero bets whatsoever on Line here. Minus 170 when he missed weight in what was supposed to be his UFC debut against a guy like Nathaniel Wood, a …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood as a live dog, but he is hesitant because Wood has been dropped in many fights and Keita hits very hard. He notes that Wood has incredible volume, can mix in takedowns, and has good recovery, but his chin is a concern. He thinks if Wood doesn't get knocked out, he will win a decision as the hometown favorite. He calls this the best fight on the card and expects it to be a war.

Nathaniel Wood by decision
"Give me Nathaniel Wood here to win this fight. I'll take him to win the fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody leans toward Wood, noting Keita's layoff and weight cut, but is not fully confident. He sees value in Wood as an underdog.

"I I I feel like I'm leaning towards Wood to be honest. Uh, but is there any great reason? I don't know."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Connor picks Nathaniel Wood, emphasizing Wood's technical edge everywhere and his ability to handle athletic opponents like Delgado and Shariay. He notes that Keita is a one-dimensional pressure fighter who doesn't cut off the cage or use a jab effectively. Connor believes Wood can weather Keita's power and figure him out, but warns that Wood's tendency to initiate grappling could be risky if Keita overpowers him.

Odds comment: Wood opened at -110, now +197; Keita opened -110, now -232. Connor thinks Wood should be a slight favorite.
"I mean, I think wood wins, especially recently over Delgado and Shariay. Like he's very capable of handling very athletic opponents who do not either have consistent in Shariay's case or nuanced ways of going after him in Delgado's case."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Daniel picks Keita (Radzhabov) to knock out Wood. He notes Wood's chin issues and that Keita is a dynamic finisher with patience. He thinks Wood will have early success but Keita will land a devastating shot. He expects a round two KO.

Fight KO +150, wins by KO in round two +625
"I think Kade is going to knock him out. ... Round two KO in my eyes."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Daniel Vreeland picks Losene Keita to win his UFC debut. He notes Keita's power and athleticism, and Wood's tendency to get hit early. He thinks Keita can knock Wood out or win a damage-based decision, but acknowledges the risk of debut jitters.

"I'm going to pick Los Sanada to come out here and win his UFC debut."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is ruthlessly consistent, has home advantage, and will push a high pace. Keita is more technical but untested at this level. Wood's toughness and cardio should overwhelm Keita late. The odds are wide; all value is on Wood.

Prefers fight spread +3.5 over moneyline for insurance; fight likely goes over 2.5 rounds.
"All the value lies with Wood here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

James picks Nathaniel Wood, but admits bias as he considers Wood a friend. He thinks Wood is well-rounded and tough, but Keita has power and physicality. He expects a competitive fight and thinks it could end inside the distance.

under 2.5 rounds (speculative)
"I'm going to root for Nathaniel Wood as always and I'm hoping he gets it done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Losene Keita

The host is confident in Losene Keita winning by knockout. He highlights Keita's explosive power, speed, and takedown defense, while Wood is seen as having no significant grappling edge. He expects Keita to close the distance and land big shots, putting Wood away. He feels good about Keita at -220.

"I'm going to take Ka and Ka by knockout. And I feel pretty damn good about him, especially at minus 220."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul fades the hyped prospect Keita, citing Wood's experience, durability, and ability to keep fights close. He expects Wood to win a close decision in London.

"I'm actually going to fade the highly touted European prospect for the guy a little I'm a little more uh comfortable with than Nathaniel Wood."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Losene Keita

The MMA Guru picks Losene Keita to TKO Nathaniel Wood in the first round. He notes Wood often gets hurt and has been in close fights, while Keita is explosive, powerful, and huge for featherweight. He believes Keita's follow-up shots are nastier than Wood's previous opponents, and he will finish Wood when he hurts him.

TKO finish in round one
"I think he's going to TKO and finish Nathaniel Wood in round one."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Zane picks Nathaniel Wood, citing Wood's technical superiority in striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes that Keita is a raw athlete with power but lacks tactical nuance, often just walking opponents down and throwing right hands. Zane compares Keita to Vinicius Oliveira and believes Wood can stick and move to victory, though he acknowledges Wood's tendency to make fights hard on himself.

Odds comment: Wood opened at -110, now +197; Keita opened -110, now -232. Zane thinks the fight should be closer to dead even and that Wood should be a slight favorite.
"I have to take wood here, but it is what makes every fight hard on himself. That's that is just what he does. So I cannot pick wood and say he's absolutely going to make this easy."
WIN vs Jose Delgado
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 99 of 176 56% 101 of 178 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:58
Jose Delgado 1 134 of 232 57% 141 of 239 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 1 24 of 59 40% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jose Delgado 1 68 of 111 61% 75 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 36 of 61 59% 37 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:38
Jose Delgado 0 29 of 55 52% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 39 of 56 69% 39 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:17
Jose Delgado 0 37 of 66 56% 37 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 99 of 176 56% 63 of 124 7 of 8 29 of 44 88 of 159 7 of 10 4 of 7
Jose Delgado 134 of 232 57% 92 of 178 35 of 46 7 of 8 100 of 190 14 of 16 20 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 24 of 59 40% 15 of 43 2 of 2 7 of 14 19 of 50 2 of 4 3 of 5
Jose Delgado 68 of 111 61% 48 of 88 16 of 19 4 of 4 43 of 80 5 of 5 20 of 26
2 Nathaniel Wood 36 of 61 59% 25 of 44 1 of 2 10 of 15 33 of 57 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jose Delgado 29 of 55 52% 20 of 43 7 of 10 2 of 2 24 of 49 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 39 of 56 69% 23 of 37 4 of 4 12 of 15 36 of 52 2 of 2 1 of 2
Jose Delgado 37 of 66 56% 24 of 47 12 of 17 1 of 2 33 of 61 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood as an underdog, emphasizing his superior experience and resume with wins over fighters like John Castañeda, Charles Jourdain, and Andre Fili. He believes Wood is faster, busier, and more tested than Jose Delgado, who has only been a finisher and hasn't faced adversity. Angelo placed a half-unit bet on Wood at plus 133 odds.

I actually threw a little itty-bitty teeny-weeny half a unit on him at these plus 133 odds
"Nathaniel's faster. I think he's busier. He's certainly more experienced. Jose has only been a hammer. I'm interested to see what happens if he's the nail for a few minutes here. Nathaniel's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Big Brady picks Jose Delgado but with low confidence, calling it a 'minute winner vs moment winner' fight. He acknowledges Nathaniel Wood is more experienced and talented, with good striking, volume, and cardio. However, Wood is a small bantamweight moving up, has been hurt often, and Delgado has a 100% finish rate with significant power. Brady believes Delgado's power will eventually catch Wood's chin, predicting a second-round KO.

Delgado by second round KO
"I'm going to go with Delgado. Not a ton of confidence in him. I do like Delgado quite a bit as a prospect, but this is a massive test for him. Give me Jose Delgado to win. And I'll say …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Cody picks Jose Delgado, citing his height and reach advantage and powerful knees up the middle. He notes that Wood is short for 145 and has been knocked out before, and Delgado's striking is dynamic. Cody believes Delgado will win by KO, possibly early.

Delgado by KO
"I'm on I'm I'm going to end up on the uh on the Delgado side as well in this fight. What Delgado KO? Delgado KO, yeah."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jose Delgado

Connor picks Delgado based on a gut feeling, noting his fluid striking, calmness under pressure, and natural finishing instinct. He acknowledges that Wood is more proven but believes Delgado's flow and confidence could overwhelm Wood, especially if Wood loses focus as he did against Sharaa. Connor also notes that Wood tends to get crushed in moments and that Delgado is dangerous.

Delgado opened at +130, now -140; Wood opened -150, now +120.
"Honestly, my gut is kind of telling me to pick Delgado, it's a wild shot. He has not proven nearly as much as Nathaniel Wood has. But you feel very dangerous."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Daniel Vreeland is high on Delgado's size, power, and finishing ability, and believes he is ready for this step up. He notes that Wood is smaller (former bantamweight), gets hurt often, and has mentioned retirement, which could affect his focus. He thinks Delgado's training at MMA Lab will help him handle Wood's leg kicks, and that Delgado's pressure and size will overwhelm Wood.

"I think that José Delgado's ready for this test. It's gonna be a tough fight, but I think at some point in this fight, Delgato can hurt Wood."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host likes Wood in this spot, expecting him to thwart Delgado's power striking, be competitive on the feet, and use grappling opportunities to grind out a decision win.

decision
"I do like me some wood in this spot as I think that he's going to do a solid job of thwarting the power striking of Delgato..."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Paul also picks Delgado, noting his training at MMA Lab and his dangerous knees. He believes Wood's chin may be compromised after moving up in weight, and Delgado's power will be too much. Paul suggests Delgado KO prop at plus 250 as a good bet.

Delgado by KO (+250)
"I think Wood may be in for a canvas nap."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

The MMA Guru picks Jose Delgado by TKO in round two or late round one. He believes Delgado is a large featherweight with finishing ability, while Nathaniel Wood is small for the division and has been hurt in fights before. He notes that Wood often lets fights get too competitive and has been nearly finished by Charles Rosa and Andre Fili. He expects Delgado's knee up the middle and wild shots to catch Wood, and that Wood's clinch escapes won't work against a bigger opponent.

TKO round two or late round one
"I'm going to go with Jose Delgado to get a finish here over Nathaniel Wood, I reckon."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jose Delgado

Zane agrees with Connor, citing Delgado's smooth, flowing striking and ability to adapt. He notes that Wood has a tendency to lose focus in striking exchanges and that Delgado's pressure could cause Wood to revert to wrestling, which may not be enough. Zane also points out that Delgado has a natural feel for striking and has shown he can handle pressure.

"I'm going to go with you on this and I hate to do it because like wood really should be getting a lot more out of his career than this."
CANCEL vs Rolando Delgado
UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Lucrative James picks Nathaniel Wood, but admits bias as Wood is a friend. He believes Wood is the better technical striker and can win on the feet, while Delgado has power but questionable cardio and has been dropped before. He notes Delgado's only loss came via wrestling, but Wood is not a wrestler. He expects a competitive fight but leans Wood due to superior striking.

"Of course, I'm rooting for Nathan. Of course, I'm picking Nathan here. He's the better striker."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 72 of 119 60% 89 of 136 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:00
Morgan Charrière 0 42 of 94 44% 69 of 125 1 of 3 33% 0 1 3:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 1 15 of 26 57% 31 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Morgan Charrière 0 5 of 10 50% 30 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:40
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 35 of 51 68% 36 of 52 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:09
Morgan Charrière 0 18 of 38 47% 20 of 40 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:44
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 22 of 42 52% 22 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Morgan Charrière 0 19 of 46 41% 19 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 72 of 119 60% 42 of 80 5 of 8 25 of 31 62 of 104 3 of 4 7 of 11
Morgan Charrière 42 of 94 44% 21 of 64 13 of 18 8 of 12 37 of 87 3 of 3 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 15 of 26 57% 9 of 17 1 of 1 5 of 8 8 of 15 0 of 0 7 of 11
Morgan Charrière 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 5 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 4
2 Nathaniel Wood 35 of 51 68% 21 of 35 4 of 5 10 of 11 32 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 18 of 38 47% 9 of 28 8 of 8 1 of 2 16 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 22 of 42 52% 12 of 28 0 of 2 10 of 12 22 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 19 of 46 41% 10 of 31 5 of 10 4 of 5 18 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Angelo picks Morgan Charrière, comparing him to a French version of Chito Vera. He believes Charrière's pressure, pace, and wrestling will be the difference. He notes that if Charrière fights Wood the same way Muhammad Naimov did (minus the fouls), he'll get a win. He acknowledges Wood is good but favors Charrière's style.

"I like Morgan sherier to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Brady calls this a very close fight with split decision written all over it. He favors Wood's volume and thinks the judges might give hometown cooking to Wood. He notes Charrière is the split decision king (losing them) and predicts Wood wins a close decision.

Wood by decision
"I'm going to take wood here just to do a little bit more and I'll say Morgan shé loses his like 50th decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Connor picks Charrière, agreeing with Zane. He highlights Wood's fatal flaw of trying to do everything, which will allow Charrière to react and scramble. Charrière's aggression and durability, as shown in the Mario Bautista fight, make him a tough matchup. Connor believes Charrière's physicality and willingness to scrap will edge out Wood's technical but flawed game.

Charrière opened at -193, currently -144; Wood opened at +147, currently +128.
"I got a picture. Yeah, love it. Love it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host believes featherweight is Wood's ideal weight class, and he will showcase his output advantage and slick grappling to keep Charrière on the defensive. Wood's activity level will lead to an optical win on the scorecards.

"I think we'll see him showcase his output advantage as well as some slick grappling that could keep Cher on the defensive for the most part."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The Guru picks Morgan Charrière, believing that Nathaniel Wood's tendency to get badly hurt in fights will eventually catch up to him. He notes that Charrière has nasty finishing instincts and will capitalize if he hurts Wood. He expects Wood to be winning on the feet initially, but then disaster strikes and Charrière gets a TKO in the second or third round.

TKO round 2 or 3
"I'm going to go with Morgan sharer getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Zane picks Charrière, citing his athleticism and ability to handle Wood's multifaceted game. He believes Wood's tendency to overcomplicate and insist on wrestling will play into Charrière's strengths, as Charrière is difficult to outwrestle and comfortable in the pocket. He notes Wood's losses to athletic fighters and expects Charrière's physicality to be decisive.

Charrière opened at -193, currently -144; Wood opened at +147, currently +128. Zane says the line feels just right.
"It just feels like sharia is probably too athletic for wood ... I'm kind of just making a physicality pick for sharia."
WIN vs Daniel Pineda
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 66 of 93 70% 81 of 110 0 of 0 --- 1 1 3:42
Daniel Pineda 0 32 of 69 46% 80 of 125 1 of 6 16% 0 2 5:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 15 of 21 71% 24 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
Daniel Pineda 0 13 of 18 72% 30 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 1 1:47
2 Nathaniel Wood 1 42 of 61 68% 47 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Daniel Pineda 0 12 of 36 33% 24 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 9 of 11 81% 10 of 12 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:11
Daniel Pineda 0 7 of 15 46% 26 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 1 3:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 66 of 93 70% 35 of 56 12 of 14 19 of 23 55 of 79 0 of 0 11 of 14
Daniel Pineda 32 of 69 46% 21 of 53 3 of 5 8 of 11 19 of 53 2 of 2 11 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 15 of 21 71% 8 of 14 3 of 3 4 of 4 11 of 16 0 of 0 4 of 5
Daniel Pineda 13 of 18 72% 10 of 14 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 10
2 Nathaniel Wood 42 of 61 68% 22 of 37 8 of 9 12 of 15 35 of 52 0 of 0 7 of 9
Daniel Pineda 12 of 36 33% 5 of 26 2 of 3 5 of 7 11 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 9 of 11 81% 5 of 5 1 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Pineda 7 of 15 46% 6 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood as the biggest favorite on the card, citing Wood's superior striking, grappling, and durability. He notes that Daniel Pineda is dangerous early but fades quickly, and Wood only needs to survive the first few minutes. Angelo believes Wood is better everywhere and is safe to parlay.

"Nathaniel is the pick and probably safe to Parlay"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his technical striking, cardio, and improving wrestling. He notes that Daniel Pineda is a dangerous first-round fighter but fades quickly, and that Wood can survive the early onslaught and take over in later rounds. Cody believes Wood can win by decision or late finish, and suggests waiting for a better live price after the first round.

"I think Nathaniel would maybe either buy either it's going to be a decision or I do again see him maybe finishing off finishing off pan late in the third round could be by TKO could be by submission."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel thinks Nathaniel Wood is better everywhere but has a questionable chin. He notes Daniel Pineda is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with all wins by finish, but 0-6 in decisions. He expects Wood to weather an early storm and win a decision if he survives.

"I think Nathaniel wood probably wins the decision here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul agrees with Cody, expecting Wood to win. He notes that Pineda's best chance is early, and he might sprinkle on Pineda by submission in round one at long odds. However, he believes Wood's volume and cardio will be too much as the fight goes on.

Daniel Pineda by submission in round 1 (small sprinkle)
"I'll probably throw a small little sprink because I'm a I'm a sick degenerate Cody I'll probably have like a small little sprinkle on P round one at plus 1,000."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling Daniel Pineda 'trash' and a former PED user. He believes Wood is levels above Pineda in skill, especially on the feet, and will win the low kick battle, which is key to Pineda's game. Wood's recent grappling win over Alex Caceres shows his well-roundedness. The Guru sympathizes with Wood's bad luck in past fights and expects him to win decisively.

"I'm going to go with Nathaniel wood I think Daniel Pan's trash former ped CH well always a ped CH but um got caught on Peds when he came to the UFC"
LOSS vs Muhammad Naimov
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 50 of 72 69% 70 of 94 2 of 7 28% 0 0 2:44
Nathaniel Wood 0 48 of 81 59% 100 of 140 4 of 9 44% 0 1 6:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 10 of 17 58% 17 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:45
Nathaniel Wood 0 18 of 28 64% 49 of 64 1 of 3 33% 0 1 2:37
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 1 of 1 100% 6 of 6 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:32
Nathaniel Wood 0 11 of 13 84% 30 of 34 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:59
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 39 of 54 72% 47 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Nathaniel Wood 0 19 of 40 47% 21 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 50 of 72 69% 37 of 57 6 of 7 7 of 8 36 of 56 5 of 6 9 of 10
Nathaniel Wood 48 of 81 59% 31 of 60 10 of 13 7 of 8 24 of 48 11 of 14 13 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 10 of 17 58% 4 of 10 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 18 of 28 64% 13 of 21 3 of 4 2 of 3 6 of 11 5 of 5 7 of 12
2 Muhammad Naimov 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 11 of 13 84% 4 of 6 4 of 4 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 5 6 of 7
3 Muhammad Naimov 39 of 54 72% 32 of 46 5 of 5 2 of 3 28 of 41 2 of 3 9 of 10
Nathaniel Wood 19 of 40 47% 14 of 33 3 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood but doesn't love the odds at 3-to-1. He trusts Wood's durability after the war with Andre Fili and his takedown defense. He worries about Naimov's power and the fact that Naimov is untested at 145 with a full camp. Wood is not in any of his parlays, indicating lower confidence.

"Wood's going to be the pick here I I think these less risky spots on this card to bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He highlights Wood's high volume (over 6 significant strikes per minute), solid wrestling, and ability to dictate where the fight takes place. The main concern is Wood's chin, as he has been dropped and finished before, giving Naimov a puncher's chance. However, Brady believes Wood will win a clear 30-27 decision if his durability holds.

decision
"I got to go Nathaniel wood here and I got to take Nathaniel wood to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Wood, emphasizing his speed, wrestling, and volume. He notes that Naimov is a one-dimensional power puncher who lost to Colin Anglin. Cody believes Wood's skill set will overwhelm Naimov, but he acknowledges the power threat.

"Nathaniel wood is the pick but he could be the pie fucker"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel picks Nathaniel Wood to win, acknowledging that Wood is a much better fighter overall but is in a high-risk, low-reward spot against a dangerous opponent. He notes Wood's chin issues and the letdown spot after fighting higher-ranked opponents. He believes Wood should win clearly but warns that Naimov is KO or bust and could catch Wood. He still picks Wood but is cautious.

Wood minus 330, Naimov plus 270; mentions Wood's chin and the letdown spot
"I still think he should clearly win I think he's way better than this guy I think he owns this guy um but yeah n mob's dangerous."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is the more complete fighter with relevant experience. At featherweight, he doesn't have to cut extra weight and can use his speed and footwork to stay away from Naimov's power. Expects Wood to put on a masterclass from striking to takedowns to Jiu-Jitsu, winning by decision.

"I'm fully expecting would to go out there and put on a master class against naov from his striking to his takedowns to even his Jiu-Jitsu"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul picks Wood but is hesitant due to Wood's durability issues. He notes that Wood is faster and more skilled, but Naimov has power and could knock him out. Paul expects Wood to win if he avoids big shots, but he is worried about the chin.

Naimov by KO (+600) as a sprinkle
"Wood's the pick just don't love it for the kind of money line you're getting"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood by late rounds TKO, specifically in the third round. He argues that Wood's technical striking, high guard, and tucked chin will make it difficult for Naimov to land a knockout. He also notes that Wood's shorter stature will help him stuff takedowns and counter Naimov's big shots. He dismisses Naimov's upset win over Jamie Mullarkey because Mullarkey's striking defense was poor.

Wood wins in round 3 by TKO
"I think Nathaniel Wood's going to win this fight I'm going to go by late rounds TKO after n of his swinging and missing quite a bit and landing on the guard I think Nathaniel wood gets this one done …"
WIN vs Andre Fili
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 84 of 148 56% 108 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:47
Andre Fili 1 58 of 151 38% 76 of 179 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 1 37 of 69 53% 37 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Andre Fili 0 17 of 49 34% 20 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 10 of 15 66% 34 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Andre Fili 1 17 of 34 50% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:55
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 37 of 64 57% 37 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Andre Fili 0 24 of 68 35% 24 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 84 of 148 56% 38 of 90 10 of 18 36 of 40 71 of 123 0 of 0 13 of 25
Andre Fili 58 of 151 38% 45 of 134 7 of 10 6 of 7 53 of 144 3 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 37 of 69 53% 21 of 48 4 of 7 12 of 14 24 of 44 0 of 0 13 of 25
Andre Fili 17 of 49 34% 15 of 45 0 of 2 2 of 2 17 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nathaniel Wood 10 of 15 66% 4 of 9 1 of 1 5 of 5 10 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Fili 17 of 34 50% 14 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 27 3 of 5 2 of 2
3 Nathaniel Wood 37 of 64 57% 13 of 33 5 of 10 19 of 21 37 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Fili 24 of 68 35% 16 of 58 5 of 6 3 of 4 24 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, believing a healthy Wood beats an inconsistent Andre Fili. He notes Wood's injury was just a cut, not a knee issue, so he should be fine. He does not bet the moneyline but may explore props because Fili is better than the odds suggest.

may explore props
"I think a full-blown healthy Nathaniel would probably beats an inconsistent Andre feeling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood by decision, citing hometown advantage and volume striking. He notes Wood is undersized with a reach disadvantage but throws high volume (6.34 sig strikes/min). He thinks Wood can mix in takedowns and that close decisions will favor the London fighter. He admits the line should be closer.

by decision
"give me wood to win this fight I think it's gonna be close potentially even a split decision of this one but I think wood wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Wood based on volume advantage, noting Wood lands over 97 significant strikes in recent fights while Fili's career high is 98. He thinks Wood's wrestling and pressure will overwhelm Fili, and that Wood's chin issues were due to weight cuts at 135. He expects a 30-27 decision.

Wood by decision at +120, Wood over 76.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"Nathaniel would and like want to say he's one of them more confident picks on the card because I believe he is"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel made this his first bet of the card, taking Nathaniel Wood at -180 to win 2 units. He highlights Wood's pace and volume advantage, noting Fili has never landed 100 significant strikes in a UFC fight while Wood has exceeded 130 multiple times. He believes Wood's calf kicks and pressure will neutralize Fili's reach, and that Wood's improved chin at featherweight (no longer cutting to bantamweight) is a key factor. He acknowledges the threat of Fili's head kick but trusts Wood's game plan to close distance and outwork him.

Daniel bet Wood at -180 to win 2 units. He mentions Wood's volume advantage and Fili's lack of output.
"I took Nathaniel wood at -180 and I played it to win two units"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

James picks Nathaniel Wood to win, calling this a potential coming-out party for him. He notes that Wood has deserved a big win and that Fili doesn't always rise to the occasion. He mentions that Wood is fighting in his hometown of London and that he thinks Wood will rise to the occasion. James acknowledges his bias as he is friendly with Wood but still believes in his skills.

"I do think this is could be his coming out party you know he's deserved one for a while"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his improved cardio at featherweight, patient striking, and ground game. He believes Wood's overall game will be too much for Fili, who struggles against higher competition. He predicts a decision win for Wood.

"give me Nathaniel wood to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul agrees with Cody on volume, noting Fili lacks knockout power and has durability issues. He thinks Wood's wrestling advantage and pace will be key. He also likes Wood by decision and the over on significant strikes.

Wood by decision at +120, Wood over 76.5 significant strikes
"I think it comes down to volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling it a no-brainer. He praises Wood's leg kicks, noting he may hold the record for most leg kicks landed in a fight. He criticizes Andre Fili's recent decline and skinny legs, and believes Wood's high guard will defend against head kicks. The Guru expects Wood to bust up Fili's lead leg and win by decision or late TKO.

"Gotta go Nathaniel wood here in my opinion no-brainer"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 0 86 of 203 42% 115 of 232 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:24
Charles Jourdain 0 97 of 202 48% 128 of 234 5 of 8 62% 0 0 4:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 23 of 55 41% 30 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Charles Jourdain 0 26 of 51 50% 36 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:50
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 35 of 78 44% 43 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Charles Jourdain 0 35 of 80 43% 54 of 100 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:35
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 28 of 70 40% 42 of 84 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Charles Jourdain 0 36 of 71 50% 38 of 73 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 86 of 203 42% 56 of 165 29 of 36 1 of 2 55 of 166 30 of 36 1 of 1
Charles Jourdain 97 of 202 48% 61 of 157 14 of 21 22 of 24 78 of 174 16 of 22 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 23 of 55 41% 17 of 47 5 of 7 1 of 1 16 of 48 7 of 7 0 of 0
Charles Jourdain 26 of 51 50% 16 of 39 3 of 4 7 of 8 23 of 47 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Nathaniel Wood 35 of 78 44% 23 of 64 12 of 14 0 of 0 25 of 65 9 of 12 1 of 1
Charles Jourdain 35 of 80 43% 22 of 62 5 of 9 8 of 9 30 of 70 4 of 7 1 of 3
3 Nathaniel Wood 28 of 70 40% 16 of 54 12 of 15 0 of 1 14 of 53 14 of 17 0 of 0
Charles Jourdain 36 of 71 50% 23 of 56 6 of 8 7 of 7 25 of 57 9 of 11 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Jourdain vs. Nathaniel Wood
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jourdain (-135), Wood (+115)

Round 1
The main card should start off with a bang, if Jourdain (13-5-1, 4-4-1 UFC) and Wood (18-5, 5-2 UFC) have anything to say about it. The Canadian has leaned into his French-speaking side this week, acting as an adopted French fighter, and the crowd is clearly on his side for this featherweight contest. Lacing up his running shoes is referee Rich Mitchell, who may be moving fast and furious to keep up with these two action-heavy 145ers. They touch gloves before the mayhem begins, and the crowd goes wild at the sight of all-time great Georges St. Pierre in the crowd. Jourdain pays his countryman no mind as he has a job to do, and he starts off with a flurry of kicks. The Canadian goes high and low with kicks, and he trips Wood up. Wood throws haymakers back, surprising Jourdain briefly, and the two wind up in a clinch. Wood trips Jourdain out and plants him on the mat, where he climbs into the guard to take the striker out of his game briefly. Jourdain defends off his back with a guillotine choke, but the leverage is not there, so Wood does not register it. The Brit hangs on from above, and Jourdain considers grabbing the guillotine again until Wood threatens with his shoulder in the early stages of a Von Preux choke. Jourdain bucks and sits up, but Wood is persistent in keeping him pinned to the canvas. Mitchell tells them to work, so Jourdain answers by walking up the fence. Jourdain gets away with a fence grab while Wood is hanging on to him in the clinch, and he pushes the fighter off of him so that he can strike. Jourdain tags Wood with a few punches and a high kick, and he snaps the head back much to the delight of the French-speaking audience. Wood gathers himself and pitches out a front kick, and his foot skims off the cup and causes a brief pause in the action. Wood apologizes for it, and they get back to it after a few seconds. Wood times a front kick that comes at him with a huge right hand, and Jourdain is hurt badly but keeping a stiff upper lip. Jourdain’s balance nearly gives way beneath him, but with Wood not pushing the pace, Jourdain is able to get his wits about him again. This similar exchange occurs twice more, with Jourdain pushing out a front kick only to get clubbed with a right hand over the top. Jourdain toughs it out and gets kicked hard on his calf, forcing him to spin all the way around. Wood chips away at the lead leg again, and Jourdain greets him with three crisp uppercuts. Jourdain strings three punches together, but Wood unleashes one power right hand that stings Jourdain again. “Air” backs off, and he suddenly leaps in the air with a flying knee that Wood sees coming. Wood pushes it off and strings together a combination, and the two high-five when the bell sounds, putting a close to this exciting round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wood

Round 2
The fists get bumped to start off the second frame, and Wood stalks his foe down early. Jourdain does not let Wood get the upper hand, crashing forward with a several-punch combination that is largely blocked, and a head kick that is also guarded. Wood works the body with a few punches and a front kick, and Jourdain comes out firing right back at him. A body kick from Jourdain allows Wood to trip his other leg out, and Wood jumps down to take top position. Jourdain kicks off before long, working his way back upright. Jourdain steps through a leg kick to score a few uppercuts and a knee up the middle, and Wood lets him have it with a huge left hook. Jourdain shrugs it off and the body shots that come to follow, and he answers with two ripping punches to the midsection. They trade punches in close boxing range, fighting in a phone booth when they close in. Jourdain strides in with several uppercuts, and Wood does the same before tripping Jourdain’s legs out and putting him down once more. Wood moves into the guard, and Jourdain tries to hip escape but gets held there. Mitchell is already imploring Wood to work after just a few seconds in top position, as Jourdain is fighting tooth and nail to get the right angle to explode back up. Mitchell warns the Brit again to improve his position, as Wood is just punching the body with short strikes, and they get stood up. Wood strings three punches together when standing again, and Jourdain takes a leg lock as he tries to reply. When they close in, four uppercuts come from Jourdain, and a furious exchange ensues with “Air” getting the better of it. They remain up close, and Jourdain blasts the body with a stern knee. Wood responds with a few straight punches, but Jourdain is the more active of the two as he keeps working the body and head with uppercuts. Wood stuns him with a left hand, and Jourdain takes it flush and throws back. Jourdain turns the tables and hits a trip on Wood, and they get back up quickly. Wood pays him back with his own trip, and Jourdain springs back up and nails Wood with an elbow. From a foot away, Jourdain manages to spin with a subsequent elbow, and England's Wood eats it like a platter of fish and chips. The round ends after this striking flurry.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wood

Round 3
The fighters embrace after 10 minutes of action to open up the last round, and they pick up right where they left off. Both men strike with punches and body kicks one after the other, and when one scores a low kick, the other replies in kind. Jourdain pushes away a body kick and walks into a leg kick, but he manages to get off a few short strikes up the middle. Wood dips back when a bigger uppercut comes at his face, and he gets tripped out and put down. “The Prospect” manages to turn him around and drop Jourdain to his back, and he lowers himself into the guard to slow things down. Jourdain wants none of this, and he muscles himself up to the fence. Wood follows him so that he can rail him with two short but fierce elbows, and Jourdain pushes off and keeps a tight guard to come in and throw hands. Wood counters and then hits a trip to dump the Canadian to the mat, and Jourdain kicks him off without concern and stands up. Wood is right there every step of the way when Jourdain tries to engage in their close-range battle, and he beats Jourdain to the punch when they get up tight. Jourdain uses uppercuts effectively to the body and chin, and one of Wood’s counters knocks Jourdain back. Jourdain tries to stride in and spin with an elbow, but Wood keeps his guard up in time. Wood fishes for a trip and cannot land it, as Jourdain marks his body up with several knees. Jourdain fires off another spinning elbow up close, and it collides behind the ear of the Brit. Wood puts a kick to the body that changes Jourdain’s expression, and he scores several more body shots that slow the Canadian down. Wood’s workrate is higher, and Jourdain begins to start getting desperate and throwing winging punches. “Air” mixes in flying knees, and he sits down on two hooks that knock Wood back. With 15 seconds to spare, Jourdain empties the gas tank with a flying kick, and Wood shuts this down with a clinch, and he manages to put Jourdain down to the mat to ride out the exciting battle.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wood (30-27 Wood)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Wood (30-27 Wood)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wood (30-27 Wood)

The Official Result
Nathaniel Wood def. Charles Jourdain via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Angelo picks Charles Jourdain because of his incredible pressure and cardio, noting that nothing can prepare you for that. He acknowledges Nathaniel Wood has the striking and grappling to win, but Jourdain's pace and volume are overwhelming. He has a moneyline bet on Jourdain and notes the line has not moved.

Moneyline bet placed; line has not moved
"how could i not pick charles jordan over the last year he seems to have settled in and gotten very comfortable with his style"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Big Brady picks Charles Jourdain to win by knockout, likely in the third round. He notes that Jourdain has significant power advantage and has finished all but one of his wins, while Wood has been finished in four of five losses and is moving up from 135. He expects Jourdain's durability and third-round surge to be too much for Wood.

third round knockout
"i'll say it's in the third round but um i do think he does finish uh nathaniel would here so give me uh charles jordan to win charles jordan to win by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Cody picks Charles Jourdain, citing his high volume, cardio, and ability to wear opponents down in the third round. He notes that Jourdain has improved his grappling and that Nathaniel Wood, a former bantamweight, may struggle with the size and durability of Jourdain. Cody acknowledges Wood's speed and wrestling but believes Jourdain's pressure and finishing ability will be decisive.

"I think charles jordan gets his hand raised on saturday afternoon."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Daniel Levi picks Charles Jourdain, impressed by his striking and volume, especially his performance against Shane Burgos. He notes that Wood is moving up in weight and may have durability issues, and that Jourdain gets better as the fight goes on while Wood slows down. He expects a competitive fight but leans Jourdain.

Jourdain by KO in round 2 or 3
"I got Charles Jordan but I expect it to be a serious fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host is confident in Wood, considering him the more disciplined and technical fighter. He believes Wood's grappling and BJJ will be key against Jourdain, who struggles when opponents apply wrestling pressure. He has already placed a 1.5 unit bet on Wood at +120 and expects a decision win, though a submission is possible.

submission victory possible
"Nathaniel Wood is my dog that I play for this card has already got one and a half units on him at plus 120."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul initially leans toward Nathaniel Wood as an underdog, citing Wood's speed and wrestling advantage. However, as the discussion progresses, he becomes less confident, noting that Wood's durability is questionable and that Jourdain's pressure and size could be too much. He ends up not committing firmly, saying he would prefer to take the grappler but acknowledges the risks.

"I will take the underdog shot anyways than nathaniel would and i'm gonna be looking good and feeling good until i maybe get knocked out at some point."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

The MMA Guru picks Charles Jourdain over Nathaniel Wood, despite Wood being a UK prospect. He believes Wood may be too small for featherweight and that Jourdain has significant power, as shown against Dooho Choi and Lando Vannata. He criticizes Wood for admiring his work and leaving openings, predicting Jourdain will catch him with a KO in the second round.

Jourdain wins by KO in round 2
"i'm going with charles jordan here over the fan you would i know nathaniel wood's a good uk prospect"
Charles Rosa - Fight History
LOSS vs Nathaniel Wood
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 0 97 of 159 61% 102 of 166 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:25
Charles Rosa 0 51 of 167 30% 54 of 170 2 of 9 22% 1 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 39 of 62 62% 43 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Charles Rosa 0 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:42
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 31 of 51 60% 31 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Charles Rosa 0 12 of 42 28% 12 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 27 of 46 58% 28 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:07
Charles Rosa 0 14 of 62 22% 17 of 65 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 97 of 159 61% 62 of 111 4 of 13 31 of 35 87 of 144 5 of 7 5 of 8
Charles Rosa 51 of 167 30% 21 of 120 18 of 29 12 of 18 43 of 156 6 of 9 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 39 of 62 62% 27 of 44 3 of 7 9 of 11 38 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 25 of 63 39% 9 of 43 10 of 13 6 of 7 22 of 59 2 of 3 1 of 1
2 Nathaniel Wood 31 of 51 60% 18 of 33 1 of 4 12 of 14 26 of 43 1 of 2 4 of 6
Charles Rosa 12 of 42 28% 6 of 29 2 of 5 4 of 8 11 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 27 of 46 58% 17 of 34 0 of 2 10 of 10 23 of 40 3 of 4 1 of 2
Charles Rosa 14 of 62 22% 6 of 48 6 of 11 2 of 3 10 of 56 3 of 5 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Wood's 75% takedown defense and high volume of strikes, while Charles Rosa is a BJJ specialist who struggles when taken down. He mentions the Casey Kenny loss as a concern but still believes Wood gets it done and will be a parlay piece.

likely parlay piece
"i still think wood gets it done and he is likely a parlay piece so nathaniel wood probably going to be the first leg of one of my parlays"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He notes Wood is moving up in weight but has a massive speed and volume advantage on the feet. Rosa's path to victory is a submission off his back, but Wood has good takedown defense. Rosa is tough to finish, so Wood wins a decision.

Wood by decision
"give me nathaniel wood nathaniel wood to win by a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Nathaniel Wood, noting he can win wherever the fight goes. He highlights Wood's superior boxing, volume, and footwork. Cody thinks Rosa's only chance is a fluke submission, but Wood's takedown defense and submission defense are solid. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"i think nathaniel wood can win the fight however he wants"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel Levi picks Nathaniel Wood, citing a massive speed advantage and excellent leg kicks. He notes that Charles Rosa is slow, hittable, and easy to take down. Levi warns that Wood should avoid getting caught in a submission or cut, but overall sees this as a good introductory fight for Wood at featherweight.

"i think he's got a massive speed advantage here he's got some of the best leg kicks abandoned weight now he's moving up to featherweight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is the better striker and should touch Rosa up from the outside. Rosa is durable and has good submission defense, but Wood can win a decision. The move up to 145 is a concern, but Rosa isn't a grappler who will exploit the size gap. Wood glides to a decision.

"wood will be the pick"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul picks Nathaniel Wood, stating he should cruise. He notes Rosa flops to his back and Wood can box him up. Paul thinks Wood's volume and striking are superior. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"nathaniel wood should absolutely cruise here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru confidently picks Nathaniel Wood to win by TKO in the second round. He praises Wood's takedown defense, leg kicks, and speed. Charles Rosa is 35 and hasn't looked good recently. Wood will chop at the legs, stuff takedowns, and eventually brutalize Rosa for a TKO finish.

second round TKO
"i'm gonna go with nathaniel wood getting this one done and i think he gets it done by tko in the second round"
LOSS vs T.J. Brown
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Brown 0 58 of 99 58% 88 of 141 6 of 8 75% 3 2 7:39
Charles Rosa 0 46 of 107 42% 71 of 132 0 of 0 --- 1 1 2:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Brown 0 35 of 67 52% 38 of 70 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:36
Charles Rosa 0 34 of 73 46% 39 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 T.J. Brown 0 16 of 23 69% 29 of 43 1 of 1 100% 2 2 3:34
Charles Rosa 0 9 of 24 37% 24 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:26
3 T.J. Brown 0 7 of 9 77% 21 of 28 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:29
Charles Rosa 0 3 of 10 30% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Brown 58 of 99 58% 46 of 85 10 of 12 2 of 2 49 of 87 2 of 5 7 of 7
Charles Rosa 46 of 107 42% 21 of 76 5 of 10 20 of 21 42 of 99 1 of 2 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Brown 35 of 67 52% 26 of 56 8 of 10 1 of 1 31 of 60 2 of 5 2 of 2
Charles Rosa 34 of 73 46% 14 of 49 5 of 9 15 of 15 34 of 72 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 T.J. Brown 16 of 23 69% 14 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 20 0 of 0 3 of 3
Charles Rosa 9 of 24 37% 4 of 17 0 of 1 5 of 6 7 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 3
3 T.J. Brown 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Charles Rosa 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Big Brady questions T.J. Brown's fight IQ, recalling his poor game plan against Danny Chavez. However, he notes Brown's striking improvements and training at Glory MMA with Bryce Mitchell. He thinks Brown can win if he mixes in takedowns against Benitez's 56% takedown defense, but he cannot trust Brown enough to bet him. He picks Brown as a dog pick but is not confident.

"give me tj brown as far as a dog pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Cody leans toward Brown, citing the blueprint of taking Rosa down and holding him there. He notes Brown's wrestling should be effective. However, he is wary of Brown's low fight IQ and the short notice change. He calls -280 too risky for parlays.

"laying minus 280 on t.j brown it's too much risky risky risky biz man"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Daniel Levi picks T.J. Brown, though he is uncomfortable laying -250. He notes that Brown is better than he has shown, but his chin is questionable and he gets dropped often. However, Levi believes Brown will outwork Charles Rosa, who is on short notice and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Brown's physicality and wrestling will be key, and that Rosa's best days are behind him. Levi expects Brown to win, possibly by finish.

possible finish
"i still am picking him to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)

The host picks Gabriel Benitez, praising his southpaw striking, body kicks, and leg kicks. He expects Benitez to use his technical striking to outwork T.J. Brown, who is more chaotic and less technical. The host notes Brown's power and BJJ but believes Benitez's cardio and striking accuracy will secure a decision. He compares the matchup to Brown's loss to Danny Chavez, where leg kicks were effective.

"i'm gonna go with gabrielle benitez and i'll take him to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Paul leans toward Rosa as a dog, citing his win-loss streak pattern and submission threat. He notes Rosa's takedown defense is poor but Brown's fight IQ is low. He expects Rosa might catch Brown in a submission. He advises waiting for weigh-ins and possibly better odds.

Rosa by submission (if prop becomes available)
"i think it's dog or pass here a hundred percent"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa (Gabriel Benitez) to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Benitez has devastating kicks, especially calf kicks, which will slow Brown down early. Brown has shown problems with kicks in the past (e.g., against Danny Chavez). He expects Benitez to chop at the legs and body, then clip Brown with a big shot when Brown tries to make something happen. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Brown getting dropped with no base.

"i'm gonna trust gabriel benitez to get this one done i think he's just that next step up in competition"
LOSS vs Damon Jackson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 34 of 87 39% 116 of 181 2 of 3 66% 0 1 1:18
Charles Rosa 0 41 of 87 47% 53 of 101 6 of 12 50% 2 3 10:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 22 of 61 36% 30 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 0 19 of 47 40% 24 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:41
2 Damon Jackson 0 8 of 22 36% 27 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Charles Rosa 0 19 of 37 51% 26 of 45 4 of 8 50% 1 1 4:05
3 Damon Jackson 0 4 of 4 100% 59 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:12
Charles Rosa 0 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 1 of 1 100% 1 2 3:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 34 of 87 39% 17 of 66 4 of 8 13 of 13 26 of 76 5 of 8 3 of 3
Charles Rosa 41 of 87 47% 33 of 77 6 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 58 3 of 3 18 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 22 of 61 36% 8 of 46 4 of 5 10 of 10 18 of 55 4 of 6 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 19 of 47 40% 15 of 42 3 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 37 3 of 3 7 of 7
2 Damon Jackson 8 of 22 36% 5 of 16 0 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 19 of 37 51% 15 of 32 3 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 20 0 of 0 9 of 17
3 Damon Jackson 4 of 4 100% 4 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Charles Rosa 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson despite stats favoring Charles Rosa. He likes Jackson's will, determination, and willingness to scrap. He thinks Jackson's fight IQ and grappling can survive Rosa's jiu-jitsu, and his striking could catch Rosa. He also placed a bet on Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action at plus 125 as a Hail Mary submission play.

Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action at +125 (0.5 units)
"I did um Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action. So, Charles Rosa can pull off a submission, I'll get paid. If Charles Rosa loses, a could be a murdering of a decision or even wins a decision, I …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson, citing Charles Rosa's poor takedown defense and inability to get up. He references Rosa's fights against Bryce Mitchell and Derrick Minor, where they controlled him with takedowns. Brady believes Jackson can implement a similar game plan, taking Rosa down and controlling him for a decision. He notes he would not bet the line at -180/-190, but thinks Jackson can win comfortably via decision.

win by decision
"give me damage jackson to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Cody picks the underdog Rosa, arguing that Jackson's striking is not elite and Rosa's BJJ and counter-striking could be effective. He notes Rosa's durability and ability to win close fights. He believes the line is too wide and Rosa has a live path to victory via decision or submission.

"i'm gonna go with the underdog charles rosa"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Daniel Levi leans toward Charles Rosa as a dog because he views the fight as a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Rosa's ability to survive submissions and make fights close, but acknowledges his tendency to spend too much time on his back. He expects a close, possibly controversial split decision win for Rosa.

split decision
"i'm gonna lean with charles rosa via close maybe controversial split decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jacob leans towards Damon Jackson but is intrigued by Charles Rosa as an underdog at plus 145. He thinks Rosa's grappling is next-level and could cause problems. He expects a close fight and sees Rosa as an interesting underdog play. He would pick Jackson but might bet Rosa.

Charles Rosa at +145 (possible bet)
"I'm kind of leaning towards Rosa for a betting at 145 cuz I think it's a pretty close fight. But if I were to pick, it would probably be Jackson."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The host picks Damon Jackson, citing his superior grappling and pressure. He notes Jackson's excellent cardio and ability to control opponents, while Rosa has good submission defense but may be outgrappled. He predicts a decision win for Jackson, which would be only the second decision of Jackson's career, due to Rosa's durability.

"I do like damon jackson in this fight i do think he has great cardio i do think he has the better jits"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Jackson, citing his better striking and pressure. He notes Rosa's tendency to flop to his back and lack of a striking game plan. He believes Jackson can win on the feet and avoid Rosa's submission threats, though he admits it's not a high-confidence pick.

"damon jackson is the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson to win by unanimous decision. He trusts Jackson's defensive grappling and guillotine threats to keep the fight standing, where Jackson has a significant advantage in striking and reach. He dismisses Rosa's striking as poor.

Jackson by unanimous decision
"i'm gonna go with uh damon jackson here over charles roser... i feel like damon jackson wins this one on the feet and i think he wins it by a very lackluster unanimous decision win"
WIN vs Justin Jaynes
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Rosa 0 51 of 182 28% 114 of 258 2 of 2 100% 2 1 3:37
Justin Jaynes 0 44 of 92 47% 51 of 101 2 of 2 100% 2 3 2:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Rosa 0 35 of 119 29% 36 of 121 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Justin Jaynes 0 19 of 41 46% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:05
2 Charles Rosa 0 3 of 15 20% 57 of 78 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:21
Justin Jaynes 0 6 of 12 50% 10 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 2 1:16
3 Charles Rosa 0 13 of 48 27% 21 of 59 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:49
Justin Jaynes 0 19 of 39 48% 22 of 43 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Rosa 51 of 182 28% 33 of 156 8 of 15 10 of 11 47 of 173 0 of 0 4 of 9
Justin Jaynes 44 of 92 47% 32 of 79 9 of 9 3 of 4 42 of 89 2 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Rosa 35 of 119 29% 22 of 101 5 of 9 8 of 9 34 of 116 0 of 0 1 of 3
Justin Jaynes 19 of 41 46% 13 of 34 3 of 3 3 of 4 19 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Rosa 3 of 15 20% 1 of 12 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 2
Justin Jaynes 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 1
3 Charles Rosa 13 of 48 27% 10 of 43 3 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 44 0 of 0 2 of 4
Justin Jaynes 19 of 39 48% 14 of 34 5 of 5 0 of 0 18 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Angelo picks Charles Rosa, believing Rosa's jiu-jitsu is fantastic and that he can avoid Jaynes's early storm and take over in later rounds. He notes that Jaynes is not Derrick Minner and that styles make fights. However, he admits he is not confident enough to place a bet on it.

"i think charles rose has the pick here at least for me uh i don't have a bet on it i'm not that confident but i do think charles rose wins this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Big Brady picks Charles Rosa to win by third round submission, citing Jaynes's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Rosa's durability (only one KO loss) and well-rounded skills, while Jaynes is a one-round fighter with 33% takedown defense. He expects Rosa to weather the early storm and take over as Jaynes gasses.

by submission, third round
"i'm going to take charles rosa to win by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Cody picks Rosa, noting that Jaynes has zero takedown accuracy and is a brawler who fades. Rosa's takedown defense is a liability, but Jaynes doesn't wrestle. Rosa's striking and cardio should allow him to outwork Jaynes. Cody thinks Rosa is untrustworthy but the style matchup favors him. He notes Rosa is coming off a loss, which historically makes him more reliable.

"i gotta make the play on a few of them and i think that styles make fights i've always said that this is this is a style clash that would favor him for a change"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Jacob picks Charles Rosa by submission or decision, noting that Rosa always gets submissions or loses decisions. He thinks Jaynes will try to wrestle, which will be a mistake, and Rosa will find a submission. Jacob is not confident enough to put Rosa in his lineup at 8600 but believes Rosa wins.

"yeah so i have charles rosa listed as submission or decision because it seems like he always gets submissions or he loses decisions"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Rosa is my lock of the night. Jaynes is not UFC caliber and has no defense. Rosa has durability, striking technique, and can take Jaynes down. He should invest in body shots early to slow Jaynes down, then find a submission in the second round. Rosa's only kryptonite is being ground out, but Jaynes can't do that. Rosa should be a much bigger favorite.

Rosa by submission plus 210; Rosa inside the distance plus 145; under 2.5 rounds minus 125
"Charles rosa is actually my locker then i played for this week... I truly believe that justin james is not a ufc caliber fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Paul picks Rosa but lost trust after his loss to Minor. He notes Rosa's pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rosa should stick to grappling and avoid brawling. He acknowledges Jaynes' power but thinks Rosa's experience and durability will carry him.

"i'll pick charles rosa but uh losing against men or he uh he lost my trust"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes as a big upset, citing his ferocity and early-round finishing ability. He criticizes Charles Rosa's striking defense and believes Jaynes will expose those holes, predicting a first-round KO. He notes Rosa's decline after his Shane Burgos fight and considers Jaynes the fresher fighter at 31.

first round KO
"i think he's gonna crack charles rosa on the chin and i'm gonna go with justin james with a big upset"
LOSS vs Darrick Minner
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darrick Minner 0 15 of 25 60% 40 of 51 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 1 45 of 60 75% 96 of 117 4 of 5 80% 3 0 12:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darrick Minner 0 6 of 11 54% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 0 23 of 35 65% 49 of 66 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:03
2 Darrick Minner 0 2 of 4 50% 9 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 1 15 of 16 93% 32 of 33 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:46
3 Darrick Minner 0 7 of 10 70% 20 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 0 7 of 9 77% 15 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darrick Minner 15 of 25 60% 9 of 17 4 of 4 2 of 4 8 of 17 0 of 0 7 of 8
Charles Rosa 45 of 60 75% 35 of 49 5 of 5 5 of 6 21 of 31 5 of 7 19 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darrick Minner 6 of 11 54% 1 of 4 3 of 3 2 of 4 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 23 of 35 65% 18 of 29 2 of 2 3 of 4 10 of 17 4 of 6 9 of 12
2 Darrick Minner 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 15 of 16 93% 12 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 8
3 Darrick Minner 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 8
Charles Rosa 7 of 9 77% 5 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Charles Rosa

Daniel Levi respects Darrick Minner's 20 first-round submissions and his ability to finish quickly, but notes Charles Rosa has never been submitted and survived deep submission attempts against Yair Rodriguez and Bryce Mitchell. Levi thinks if Minner doesn't get the finish in the first round, Rosa's work rate and kicks will overwhelm Minner in the later rounds. He is hesitant to lay the -200 chalk on Rosa but sees more paths to victory for him.

"if it hits the score cards i think 29 28 rosa if it's a late finish i think rosa if it's an early finish winner so more paths for rosa so i'll take rosa here but i would be a …"
WIN vs Kevin Aguilar
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Eye vs. Calvillo · Jun 13, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Rosa 0 69 of 173 39% 69 of 173 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 53 of 135 39% 53 of 135 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Rosa 0 20 of 56 35% 20 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 14 of 37 37% 14 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Charles Rosa 0 22 of 50 44% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 17 of 39 43% 17 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Charles Rosa 0 27 of 67 40% 27 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 22 of 59 37% 22 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Rosa 69 of 173 39% 33 of 119 15 of 26 21 of 28 69 of 173 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 53 of 135 39% 34 of 109 17 of 22 2 of 4 50 of 130 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Rosa 20 of 56 35% 5 of 34 5 of 9 10 of 13 20 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 14 of 37 37% 10 of 29 4 of 7 0 of 1 11 of 32 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Charles Rosa 22 of 50 44% 10 of 30 6 of 11 6 of 9 22 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 17 of 39 43% 11 of 31 5 of 6 1 of 2 17 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Charles Rosa 27 of 67 40% 18 of 55 4 of 6 5 of 6 27 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 22 of 59 37% 13 of 49 8 of 9 1 of 1 22 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa, noting that he shouldn't be judged by his loss to Bryce Mitchell. He highlights Rosa's jiu-jitsu and striking, recalling that Rosa out-struck Shane Burgos in their fight. He believes Rosa will finish Aguilar by head kick, as Aguilar is coming off a KO loss and a short turnaround.

Rosa wins by KO (head kick)
"Charles Rosa was beating shame Burgos on the feet. He's a jujitsu guy, he was clearly out striking Shane Burgos."
LOSS vs Bryce Mitchell
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–24) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 40 of 49 81% 60 of 74 3 of 3 100% 5 0 12:51
Charles Rosa 0 5 of 10 50% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 11 of 13 84% 12 of 14 1 of 1 100% 3 0 3:22
Charles Rosa 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 17 of 21 80% 28 of 32 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:37
Charles Rosa 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 12 of 15 80% 20 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:52
Charles Rosa 0 1 of 5 20% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 40 of 49 81% 27 of 36 13 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 40 of 46
Charles Rosa 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 11 of 13 84% 8 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 12
Charles Rosa 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Bryce Mitchell 17 of 21 80% 12 of 16 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 20
Charles Rosa 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Bryce Mitchell 12 of 15 80% 7 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 14
Charles Rosa 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Rosa vs. Bryce Mitchell

Round 1
Dropping down to the featherweight division, we are treated to a matchup between two solid prospects in American Top Team’s Rosa (12-3, 3-3 UFC) and the undefeated Mitchell (12-0, 3-0 UFC). Our referee for this bout is Keith Peterson, and uncharacteristically he is allowing some nonsense by not wearing a mask. The two elect not to touch gloves to kick off their match, and Mitchell immediately stalks Rosa down against the fence. Rosa tries to keep away and throw kicks, but Mitchell is unconcerned and hits a quick single leg takedown. Mitchell ties up the legs to keep Rosa grounded, and Mitchell circles around to take the back. Rosa spins out but is immediately is in the danger zone. Mitchell sets up an arm-triangle choke, and Rosa’s head is changing colors rapidly and thinks about tapping. Rosa continues to flail and almost taps again, but somehow manages to pull his head free. Mitchell is on him like glue, taking the back before hunting for an arm-triangle choke again. Rosa throws his legs up to hunt for an inverted triangle choke, and Mitchell is unconcerned as he spins free. The ensuing exchange miraculously leads to Mitchell setting up a twister, and the commentary booth is losing it. Rosa struggles, turns and tries to survive, and manages to get out for a moment, only to give it up again. In an impressive showing of submission defense, Rosa pulls his body out but surrenders another arm-triangle choke. This time, it’s tight, and Mitchell squeezes with all he has. Rosa’s head turns red quickly once more, but he powers free and remains on his back. Mitchell tries to set up one last submission, but the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 2
Rosa opens the round with a few head kicks, and keep Mitchell at bay for a few seconds. “Thug Nasty” gathers his thoughts and shoots in for a takedown, and immediately passes guard and takes three-quarter mount. Rosa is unable to get any offense going as Mitchell nullifies him, and gives up mount as Mitchell tries to set up another arm-triangle. While Mitchell continues to style on Rosa, the commentary booth ponders the true location of Fight Island -- none of them know. Mitchell drops down a few heavy elbows and punches on top, and Rosa uses that aggression against his opponent to pull for a leglock. Mitchell practically ignores it, before stepping back to mount. He steps over to get an arm-triangle choke, and Rosa stays calm and defends it well enough before Mitchell bails to return to mount. Rosa turns over, and Mitchell thinks about taking his back before setting up another twister. This is unquestionably the record for the most twister attempts in a UFC fight before, and this time it’s tight as a drum. Unfortunately for Mitchell, the horn sounds before he can get the tap, but this is all one-way traffic from “Thug Nasty.”

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell

Round 3
Within 15 seconds, Mitchell dives into a takedown and incredibly sets up another twister. Rosa locks his arm up to hold on tight, but Mitchell pulls on the right arm of Rosa to twist him the other direction. Rosa pushes with all his might to get free, and while he gets out of the bad situation, he is still grounded. “Boston Strong” tries to set up a guillotine off his back, and Mitchell thinks about going after a Von Preux choke until thinking about the arm-triangle choke again. The unbeaten fighter chains submission together one after the other, and props to Rosa for surviving, but it is total domination. Rosa gives up his back, defends a choke and rolls back over. Ever vigilant, Mitchell returns to mount before hunting for the arm-triangle once more. Rosa is cursing out Mitchell for “laying on me” but is not showing the defense to get out of harm’s way. Mitchell takes a high mount and thinks about blasting him with a few shots on top, but Rosa rolls out just in time. Mitchell hops out, turns around and dives back in to secure top position. Mitchell rolls through a crucifix, hammers down a few elbows, takes top position with Rosa’s feet trying to kick off the cage. He successfully does so with seconds to spare, but he is spent -- Mitchell crashes forward to strike him and clinch up, but the round, and fight, is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-24 Mitchell)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Charles Rosa via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-25, 30-24)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Big Brady picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his youth, size, and overall superiority on the ground and feet. He downplays Rosa's submission win over Manny Bermudez, calling Bermudez a fraud. He thinks the line at minus 175 is a bit wide and sees little value but still expects Mitchell to win.

Mitchell minus 175; line is a little wide
"I actually like Bryce Mitchell quite a bit here. Uh he's the younger fighter. He's the bigger fighter. I think he's really going to give problems to Rosa um on the ground and on the feet."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Daniel Levi slightly leans towards Bryce Mitchell, citing his athleticism and youth. He notes that Mitchell has holes in his game and may fatigue, but Rosa is a finished product who isn't getting better. Levi thinks Mitchell can get the job done by being younger and fresher, possibly with a late finish.

Mitchell by late finish
"I'll slightly lean with Bryce Mitchell because of the athleticism the youth and things among those lines but it would not surprise me at all if Rosa came out here and got the upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Matt initially considered Mitchell as a lock but after tape review, he favors Rosa as a live dog. He highlights Rosa's leg kicks, offensive guard, and ability to keep the fight standing, while questioning Mitchell's striking development and the impact of training camps during the pandemic. He picks Rosa by decision.

"I think that Charles Rosa definitely is a live dog... I'm going to say Charles Rosa by decision"
Verbal Submission (armbar) R1 2:46 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Rosa 0 6 of 8 75% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Manny Bermudez 0 27 of 38 71% 37 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Rosa 0 6 of 8 75% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Manny Bermudez 0 27 of 38 71% 37 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Rosa 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manny Bermudez 27 of 38 71% 25 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 26 of 32
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Rosa 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manny Bermudez 27 of 38 71% 25 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 26 of 32
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Wood's 75% takedown defense and high volume of strikes, while Charles Rosa is a BJJ specialist who struggles when taken down. He mentions the Casey Kenny loss as a concern but still believes Wood gets it done and will be a parlay piece.

likely parlay piece
"i still think wood gets it done and he is likely a parlay piece so nathaniel wood probably going to be the first leg of one of my parlays"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He notes Wood is moving up in weight but has a massive speed and volume advantage on the feet. Rosa's path to victory is a submission off his back, but Wood has good takedown defense. Rosa is tough to finish, so Wood wins a decision.

Wood by decision
"give me nathaniel wood nathaniel wood to win by a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Nathaniel Wood, noting he can win wherever the fight goes. He highlights Wood's superior boxing, volume, and footwork. Cody thinks Rosa's only chance is a fluke submission, but Wood's takedown defense and submission defense are solid. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"i think nathaniel wood can win the fight however he wants"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel Levi picks Nathaniel Wood, citing a massive speed advantage and excellent leg kicks. He notes that Charles Rosa is slow, hittable, and easy to take down. Levi warns that Wood should avoid getting caught in a submission or cut, but overall sees this as a good introductory fight for Wood at featherweight.

"i think he's got a massive speed advantage here he's got some of the best leg kicks abandoned weight now he's moving up to featherweight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is the better striker and should touch Rosa up from the outside. Rosa is durable and has good submission defense, but Wood can win a decision. The move up to 145 is a concern, but Rosa isn't a grappler who will exploit the size gap. Wood glides to a decision.

"wood will be the pick"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul picks Nathaniel Wood, stating he should cruise. He notes Rosa flops to his back and Wood can box him up. Paul thinks Wood's volume and striking are superior. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"nathaniel wood should absolutely cruise here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru confidently picks Nathaniel Wood to win by TKO in the second round. He praises Wood's takedown defense, leg kicks, and speed. Charles Rosa is 35 and hasn't looked good recently. Wood will chop at the legs, stuff takedowns, and eventually brutalize Rosa for a TKO finish.

second round TKO
"i'm gonna go with nathaniel wood getting this one done and i think he gets it done by tko in the second round"