vs
-105 -108
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall Next Fight
Age 37
Height 6' 1"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 5' 10"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jack Hermansson
5.15 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.72 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.48 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
80.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Chris Curtis
5.52 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
5.75 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Jack Hermansson
Moneyline
BetMGM -105
KO/TKO
BetRivers +575
Submission
FanDuel +550
Decision
BetRivers +275
Chris Curtis
Moneyline
FanDuel -108
KO/TKO
BetRivers +255
Submission
BetRivers +2800
Decision
FanDuel +340
Jack Hermansson - Fight History
KO R1 2:46 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Hermansson 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 1 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Hermansson 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 1 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Hermansson 19 of 38 50% 9 of 25 5 of 8 5 of 5 17 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 15 of 33 45% 9 of 25 3 of 5 3 of 3 13 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Hermansson 19 of 38 50% 9 of 25 5 of 8 5 of 5 17 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 15 of 33 45% 9 of 25 3 of 5 3 of 3 13 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo picks Myktybek Orolbai over Jack Hermansson, calling it a life savings on the caveman. He describes Orolbai as a fun grappler with non-stop pressure, cardio, and power, while Hermansson is an aging welterweight moving down in weight, which weakens his chin and cardio. Orolbai's game plan is simple: takedown, smash, win.

"Moto Beck wins this fight. A 37-year-old welterweight Jack Herman Manson is not winning this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Myktybek Orolbai (Mairbek Tukhugov) by first-round knockout, citing Hermansson's recent brutal KO loss and quick turnaround. He questions Hermansson's chin and weight cut to welterweight, expecting Orolbai to land a big shot and finish him early.

first round knockout
"Give me Mairbek to win. Mairbek to win by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Cody picks Jack Hermansson confidently, pending weight cut. He notes that Orolbai is one-dimensional, a weight bully who relies on takedowns but has poor striking defense. Jack has a reach advantage, excellent wrestling, and BJJ. Cody believes Jack can stuff takedowns and outwork Orolbai, who gasses and gets hit a lot.

"I got Jack Manson as well, but pending that he makes the weight and he looks good on the scales."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, citing his physicality and grinding style as a problem for Hermansson. He notes that Hermansson is making a drastic weight cut to welterweight, which often fails at this career stage. Connor acknowledges Hermansson's win over Joe Pyfer but sees Orolbai's natural size and aggression as decisive.

Orolbai by decision or late finish
"I think I'll trust my instincts and take a Ralby. He's basically been fighting as a welterweight already."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Lucrative James picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing the weight class advantage (Orolbai moving up from 155, Hermansson cutting from 185). He believes Orolbai has better striking power, durability, and grappling. He notes Hermansson's recent KO loss and questionable chin. He predicts Orolbai will win, possibly by knockout.

"I'm going to take Mick Tbec or buy for this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai is a pressure grappler with solid cardio and finishing ability. Hermansson is dropping to welterweight at 37, with durability concerns and a long layoff. Orolbai should overwhelm Hermansson and finish him via TKO or submission.

Orolbai inside the distance
"I'm going to go MTAC Oro by inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Paul picks Jack Hermansson, noting that Orolbai is moving up to welterweight and has struggled with bigger opponents. Jack is a natural welterweight with good wrestling and submission skills. Paul believes Jack's experience and size will be too much for Orolbai, who has poor cardio and striking defense.

"I like if Jack looks good on the scales on Friday, Cody, I'm gonna have a tough time not pulling the trigger on Jack at like plus 200."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The MMA Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai over Jack Hermansson, believing Orolbai's speed and technique will overcome Hermansson's size. He notes Hermansson's KO loss and weight cut to welterweight. He trusts Orolbai's grappling defense and offensive submissions, predicting a win.

"I'm going to go with Myktybek Orolbai beating Jack Hermansson."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Zane picks Hermansson, betting that his size and strength at welterweight will be enough to control Orolbai. He notes that Orolbai's success depends on physicality, and if Hermansson is too strong, Orolbai's one-dimensional pressure will fail. Zane admits it's a risky pick given Hermansson's recent losses.

Hermansson by decision; weight cut could be a factor
"I'm gonna take the flyer on her Manson just being big enough to control this fight and kind of you know, survive a mess."
KO R1 4:21 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Hermansson 0 30 of 55 54% 30 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 1 18 of 63 28% 18 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Hermansson 0 30 of 55 54% 30 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 1 18 of 63 28% 18 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Hermansson 30 of 55 54% 24 of 49 2 of 2 4 of 4 30 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 18 of 63 28% 11 of 54 6 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Hermansson 30 of 55 54% 24 of 49 2 of 2 4 of 4 30 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 18 of 63 28% 11 of 54 6 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo leans Gregory Rodrigues because he believes Rodrigues's power and early success will carry him in a three-round fight, despite his cardio issues. He compares it to Jack Hermansson's win over Joe Pyfer, where Hermansson survived early and took over, but notes that Rodrigues's loss to Jared Cannonier was in the fourth round and Cannonier hits harder. He is cautious because Rodrigues is a -180 favorite with cardio concerns, and he suggests the over 1.5 rounds might be a good bet.

Angelo mentions he is interested in the over 1.5 rounds line if available, and notes that -180 for a guy who just got finished due to cardio is risky.
"Gregory Rodrigues is going to be the pick. I'm a little iffy on bets. Well, maybe we get a one-and-a-half round line."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady likes Rodrigues stylistically, noting his power advantage over Hermansson. He thinks Hermansson's best path is wrestling, but Rodrigues has good takedown defense and is a BJJ black belt. Brady expects the fight to stay standing, where Rodrigues will land harder shots. He references Marvin Vettori knocking down Hermansson as evidence of his chin vulnerability, and picks Rodrigues by second-round knockout.

Rodrigues wins by second round knockout
"I'm going to take Rodriguez to win this fight by second round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The host notes Hermansson's long layoff and believes Rodrigues will dictate the pace with power punching and ground control, winning on the scorecards.

win on scorecards
"I think the Rodriguez will be able to dictate the pace with his power punching, but also an ability to take this fight to the ground and grind out Herman Manson leading to Rodriguez winning this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The host picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his activity and more intricate striking compared to Hermansson's last opponent. He believes Rodrigues' grappling is good enough to neutralize Hermansson's, and that Hermansson's long layoff is a concern. He predicts a TKO win for Rodrigues in the first or second round.

TKO
"I'm going to go with him over Jack Manson here just because of recency. Like he's on the grind, he's on the hustle, he's on the come up."
WIN vs Joe Pyfer
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Hermansson 0 121 of 235 51% 188 of 327 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:08
Joe Pyfer 0 92 of 250 36% 95 of 254 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Hermansson 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 24 of 58 41% 24 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Hermansson 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Joe Pyfer 0 22 of 60 36% 22 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jack Hermansson 0 37 of 69 53% 43 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 20 of 65 30% 20 of 65 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Jack Hermansson 0 33 of 57 57% 58 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 22 of 46 47% 23 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:50
5 Jack Hermansson 0 16 of 33 48% 52 of 90 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Joe Pyfer 0 4 of 21 19% 6 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Hermansson 121 of 235 51% 74 of 174 15 of 23 32 of 38 111 of 219 5 of 6 5 of 10
Joe Pyfer 92 of 250 36% 56 of 196 25 of 34 11 of 20 92 of 250 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Hermansson 16 of 38 42% 3 of 21 8 of 9 5 of 8 16 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 24 of 58 41% 11 of 41 9 of 10 4 of 7 24 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jack Hermansson 19 of 38 50% 11 of 28 1 of 3 7 of 7 19 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 22 of 60 36% 11 of 45 9 of 10 2 of 5 22 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jack Hermansson 37 of 69 53% 25 of 54 4 of 7 8 of 8 33 of 64 4 of 5 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 20 of 65 30% 12 of 54 4 of 7 4 of 4 20 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Jack Hermansson 33 of 57 57% 21 of 41 2 of 3 10 of 13 32 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 22 of 46 47% 19 of 39 2 of 4 1 of 3 22 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jack Hermansson 16 of 33 48% 14 of 30 0 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 23 0 of 0 5 of 10
Joe Pyfer 4 of 21 19% 3 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 1 4 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Angelo acknowledges Jack Hermansson's grappling credentials but notes his low takedown accuracy (29%). Joe Pyfer has incredible power, good wrestling, and has trained with high-level grapplers, including a win over Gerald Meerschaert. Angelo believes Pyfer is the real deal and that this is a perfect stepping stone fight. He suggests betting or parlaying Pyfer.

could bet and parlay Joey P
"I think Joe's the real deal and I think this is a perfect stepping stone type fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Big Brady picks Joe Pyfer to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Pyfer has dynamite in his hands and hits like a truck, while Hermansson has been knocked out before and struggles to get fights to the mat. He thinks the small cage favors Pyfer's pressure, and he expects Pyfer to knock Hermansson out early. He acknowledges Hermansson's cardio and grappling but believes Pyfer's power is the difference.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take Joe Piper to win this fight and I think he knocks him out in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Cody sees value in Hermansson as a plus money underdog. He questions Pyfer's cardio and five-round experience, noting Pyfer has never fought three rounds and relies on early finishes against lower-level competition. Hermansson has proven volume and cardio over five rounds, with wins over Chris Curtis and competitive fights with Strickland and Vettori. Cody believes Pyfer's -260 price is too high given the unknowns, making Hermansson a clear dogger pass pick.

"I'm certainly tempted in a Hermansson bet... minus 260 just seems off to me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Hermansson is a tough veteran with a grappling-heavy approach and good durability. He should be able to weather Pyfer's early power and then take over with his grinding style, potentially winning by decision or late stoppage. Pyfer's cardio is untested against a durable opponent. However, Hermansson is coming off a knee injury, and Pyfer has youth and power. Low confidence pick.

"I have to lean ever so slightly to the veteran here in Jack romanson I have my question marks due to the injuries that he's coming back from uh the the youth advantage of Joe pyer here as well uh …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Paul agrees with Cody, calling Hermansson a clear dogger pass. He notes Pyfer's lack of five-round experience and that Hermansson has multiple tools and paths to victory. Paul points out that if the fight goes deep, Hermansson's cardio and volume will be decisive. He also mentions that Pyfer could win by early knockout, but the value is on Hermansson at plus money.

"at plus 220 yeah I think it's pretty clearly a pass type of situation"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer with high confidence, citing Pyfer's knockout power and grappling ability. He notes Pyfer's impressive KO of Gerald Meerschaert and his performance against Abdul Razak Alhassan, where Alhassan seemed scared. He believes Pyfer can put away Hermansson, who he criticizes for losing to Roman Dolidze. He predicts a first-round KO.

first round KO
"Joe pyer is going to absolutely obliterate him round one KO... pyer by KO."
LOSS vs Roman Dolidze
TKO (punches) R2 4:06 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 47 of 79 59% 48 of 80 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:52
Jack Hermansson 0 25 of 54 46% 39 of 73 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 25 of 40 62% 26 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Jack Hermansson 0 4 of 16 25% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
2 Roman Dolidze 0 22 of 39 56% 22 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:46
Jack Hermansson 0 21 of 38 55% 32 of 54 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 47 of 79 59% 16 of 41 11 of 16 20 of 22 43 of 74 3 of 4 1 of 1
Jack Hermansson 25 of 54 46% 23 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 38 1 of 1 12 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 25 of 40 62% 6 of 16 6 of 9 13 of 15 23 of 37 1 of 2 1 of 1
Jack Hermansson 4 of 16 25% 3 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Roman Dolidze 22 of 39 56% 10 of 25 5 of 7 7 of 7 20 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 21 of 38 55% 20 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 23 1 of 1 11 of 14
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze, calling him a world champion grappler with real power. He notes Dolidze's impressive recent win over Phil Hawes, where he showed both submission and KO ability. He thinks Hermansson is a good grappler but not on Dolidze's level, and lacks power in his striking. He expects Dolidze to be the favorite by fight night and has a moneyline bet on him.

Has a moneyline bet on Dolidze; notes short notice but Dolidze has stepped up before
"I like Roman Deliza here I got him at plus money I have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Big Brady is confident in Hermansson, citing his underrated striking, improved cardio, and superior grappling. He notes Dolidze's poor takedown defense (33%) and short-notice fight, expecting Hermansson to win exchanges on the feet, mix in takedowns, and finish a tired Dolidze in the second round by submission. He mentions Hermansson's dominant win over Chris Curtis as evidence.

Hermansson wins by submission, round 2
"I think Jacker Manson is going to be the second one to ever finish Roma to Lindsay here... second round submission for Jack Romancing"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Cody agrees, highlighting Hermansson's high output and Dolidze's low volume. He thinks Hermansson can win by decision or even submission, and prefers Hermansson by decision. He notes Dolidze's power but doubts he can land cleanly.

Hermansson by decision; Hermansson over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I think he pushes a pretty decent pace and as he's getting a little bit older he realizes maybe not the greatest chin maybe not the most uh not the most power so why hang it in the pocket and …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Daniel Levi leans Hermansson as a pure pick, citing his better competition, improved striking, and ground-and-pound. However, he notes Dolidze's danger everywhere and calls it a dog-or-pass situation at the current line. He might bet Dolidze if the line widens to +200 or more.

"I lean Jack but minus 190 is not a lean Jack minus 150 is Eileen Jack and actually minus 150 is where Vegas opened and I thought that was pretty appropriate so at this line I actually do think it's …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

The host picks Hermansson but is not confident due to Dolidze's tendency to pull off upsets. He thinks Hermansson will dictate the fight with clinching and striking from the outside, similar to his win over Chris Curtis. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet, expecting a slow-paced fight. He warns that Dolidze is a wild man who could finish if he smells blood.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'll still go with her Manson as my prediction I'm gonna take the over two and a half likely as a bet"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Paul thinks Hermansson has Dolidze covered everywhere. He notes Dolidze's low volume and Hermansson's output advantage. He expects Hermansson to keep the fight standing and use his reach and cardio to win a decision or possibly get a finish.

Hermansson over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I think minus 200 is a pretty fair price on Jack romance in this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

The MMA Guru picks Jack Hermansson, citing his superior experience and grappling. He thinks Dolidze's recent wins are over lesser competition and that Hermansson's leg kicks and pressure will be key. He predicts Hermansson will take over in the later rounds and win a decision.

Hermansson by decision (29-28)
"I'm going Jack commandsum"
WIN vs Chris Curtis
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Hermansson 0 100 of 251 39% 100 of 251 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 43 of 125 34% 43 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Hermansson 0 21 of 65 32% 21 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 7 of 28 25% 7 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Hermansson 0 45 of 108 41% 45 of 108 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 16 of 40 40% 16 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jack Hermansson 0 34 of 78 43% 34 of 78 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 20 of 57 35% 20 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Hermansson 100 of 251 39% 48 of 176 25 of 45 27 of 30 99 of 246 1 of 5 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 43 of 125 34% 18 of 89 25 of 35 0 of 1 41 of 123 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Hermansson 21 of 65 32% 7 of 42 3 of 10 11 of 13 21 of 63 0 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 7 of 28 25% 3 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jack Hermansson 45 of 108 41% 26 of 80 10 of 18 9 of 10 44 of 105 1 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 16 of 40 40% 5 of 24 11 of 16 0 of 0 16 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jack Hermansson 34 of 78 43% 15 of 54 12 of 17 7 of 7 34 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 20 of 57 35% 10 of 42 10 of 14 0 of 1 18 of 55 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo has a slight lean towards Chris Curtis but expresses buyer's remorse after betting on him. He notes Curtis has good boxing and takedown defense, but gassed in his last fight against Rodolfo Vieira and was outstruck. He points out Jack Hermansson went 0 for 8 on takedowns against Sean Strickland but still won rounds on some scorecards, meaning he can strike. He says the pick might change by fight day.

moneyline bet placed
"i'm still going to have a very like very slight lean towards chris here because jack's takedowns are just awful"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis to win by decision. He notes Curtis has shown improved takedown defense (stuffing all 20 of Rodolfo Vieira's attempts). On the feet, Curtis has the striking advantage. If Hermansson can't take him down, Curtis should outpoint him in a competitive decision. He acknowledges Hermansson's ground game is dangerous if he gets takedowns.

Curtis by decision
"give me chris curtis for the win here i'm to go with chris curtis to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody is confident in Chris Curtis, citing his excellent cardio, takedown defense, and boxing. He argues that Hermansson's best volume comes in championship rounds, but this is a three-round fight. Cody notes Hermansson has been knocked out by punchers and dropped by Marvin Vettori, while Curtis has power and volume. He also mentions Curtis' training with Sean Strickland and his ability to stuff takedowns. Cody believes Curtis will keep the fight standing and box Hermansson up.

over 76.5 fantasy score on PrizePicks
"i'm gonna take chris curtis again i actually will and i'm not don't know if action man's going to knock him out or win a decision i couldn't tell you a straight prop"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Daniel Levi leans towards Jack Hermansson, citing his top-level experience and dangerous ground game, particularly his guillotine choke. He acknowledges Chris Curtis's improved takedown defense and boxing, but questions whether Curtis can handle the step up in competition. Levi notes that Hermansson has been in there with the best and has a lot of heart, but also wonders if Hermansson still has the hunger after recent setbacks. He thinks Hermansson can find opportunistic takedowns and use his ground and pound to win.

Mentions that he missed out on Hermansson at +110, implying he would have bet at that price.
"i lean her manson in this fight man i think he can get back on track as long as he's still into this"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Hermansson is too big and strong for Curtis. He will drag the fight to the ground and control him. Curtis defended 20 takedowns against Adolfo Vieira, but Vieira is a jiu-jitsu player, not a wrestler. Hermansson's wrestling is elite. Curtis will realize he should have stayed at 170.

"I'm going to be on her Mansion I'll likely have a decent bet on him as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Paul picks Jack Hermansson, feeling the line is too close and that there may be too much hype on Chris Curtis. He notes Hermansson is a legitimate pounder with great cardio, excellent wrestling, and complete skills. Paul acknowledges Curtis has been a cash printing machine but thinks this step up in competition might be too much. He wants to hear Cody's take before making any action.

"i'm picking her manson i wanted to hear obviously what the curtis whisperer had to say before i made any action on this though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to win by decision. He praises Curtis's grappling defense, as seen against Rodolfo Vieira. Hermansson will have success with takedowns early but will slow down. Curtis will land body shots and knees, pulling away in the last two rounds for a 29-28 decision.

29-28 decision
"i'm gonna go if chris curtis getting this one done in the second and third round 29-28 chris curtis says sir manson slows down"
LOSS vs Sean Strickland
Decision (split) (49–46, 47–48, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Strickland 0 137 of 353 38% 137 of 353 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:31
Jack Hermansson 0 153 of 330 46% 161 of 338 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Strickland 0 26 of 47 55% 26 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jack Hermansson 0 22 of 51 43% 24 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sean Strickland 0 32 of 70 45% 32 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jack Hermansson 0 32 of 77 41% 32 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean Strickland 0 26 of 75 34% 26 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jack Hermansson 0 27 of 59 45% 27 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Sean Strickland 0 27 of 78 34% 27 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Jack Hermansson 0 34 of 67 50% 37 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Sean Strickland 0 26 of 83 31% 26 of 83 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Jack Hermansson 0 38 of 76 50% 41 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Strickland 137 of 353 38% 22 of 194 64 of 105 51 of 54 134 of 350 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 153 of 330 46% 125 of 286 24 of 40 4 of 4 151 of 328 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Strickland 26 of 47 55% 4 of 15 11 of 20 11 of 12 25 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 22 of 51 43% 19 of 46 3 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Sean Strickland 32 of 70 45% 3 of 35 15 of 21 14 of 14 31 of 69 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 32 of 77 41% 22 of 65 10 of 12 0 of 0 32 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean Strickland 26 of 75 34% 4 of 43 9 of 19 13 of 13 26 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 27 of 59 45% 22 of 49 5 of 10 0 of 0 27 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Sean Strickland 27 of 78 34% 6 of 47 13 of 22 8 of 9 26 of 77 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 34 of 67 50% 30 of 58 2 of 7 2 of 2 34 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Sean Strickland 26 of 83 31% 5 of 54 16 of 23 5 of 6 26 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 38 of 76 50% 32 of 68 4 of 6 2 of 2 38 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland

Round 1
Top-10 middleweights come to blows for the marquee matchup atop UFC Fight Night 200, with possible championship implications in play. “The Joker” Hermansson (22-6, 9-4 UFC) will try to blunt the momentum of the fast-swinging “Tarzan” Strickland (24-3, 11-3 UFC) in a clear-cut style matchup of a savvy grappler against a solid striker. Referee Herb Dean draws the final assignment of the evening, and he may have his hands full depending on where the fight goes. The gloves are touched, the fighters are ready, and it’s time for some action. The middleweights meet in the middle, and Hermansson lands first with a leg kick. Strickland checks the second one that comes to that target, and he flicks out a few jabs as Hermansson comes towards him. Strickland pops out his jab to split the guard repeatedly, and he blocks one from Hermansson but does not block the sweeping low kick. Strickland keeps his jab flowing, and he gets forced to fight off a takedown effort about a minute into the round. Strickland backs up to the fence, keeping himself upright, while Hermansson goes low for a single. Hermansson hooks the leg between his own, and Strickland defends with a few body shots but gets wrenched down to his hands and knees. “Tarzan” swings right back up to his feet, and Hermansson holds him from behind against the wire. Hermansson bails on the single so that he can knee the body, and he kicks Strickland’s calf on the way out. Strickland returns a jab, and Hermansson pushes one back that is far less snappy. Strickland blocks a body kick and is comfortable with his left jab finding the spot again and again. Strickland checks another leg kick, and Hermansson kicks it from the other side when he does. Strickland’s jab pierces the guard again and again, and he keeps at a safe range to dodge a three-punch salvo that swings his way. While Strickland powers out a jab, he eats a heavy body kick and a slapping inside low kick. Hermansson varies his targets while Strickland is primarily focused on sticking out a jab on the nose. Strickland follows a jab with a right, and Hermansson wears it well and replies with a low kick. The American opens up with another one-two, and it gives Hermansson pause for a moment but “The Joker” bites down on his mouthpiece and throws with a right hand and a leg kick. Strickland’s jab continues to find its home, and he adds in a front kick to the body. “Tarzan” dances out of the way of punches right at the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Hermansson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 2
The Swede comes out of his corner much more aggressively than the previous frame, swinging wildly with looping shots and heavier kicks. Strickland remains composed with his jabs and effective defense, checking the low kicks and blocking the bigger punches aimed at his head. They both trade strikes, and Hermansson rushes in with a combination that gets intercepted by a pair of punches. Hermansson hammers Strickland’s lead leg with another kick, and the calf is starting to change colors. Without setting it up, Hermansson ducks down for a takedown attempt, and Strickland shucks it off and pushes him aside. Strickland marches ahead with jabs and follow-up right hands, and he swats down a punch aimed at his face. Hermansson may be throwing harder, but the accuracy rate of his vicious strikes is low. Hermansson bites down on his mouthpiece to throw hands, and they begin to trade it out right in front of one another. Hermansson slugs Strickland in the face, and Strickland’s pace does not change that significantly, keeping to jabs and occasional twos. Hermansson has another takedown try stuffed with ease, allowing Strickland to get to his preferred range and smack him in the face with a jab and body with a right hand. Hermansson kicks the body, and Strickland does not register the blow as he checks a leg kick. Strickland picks out with punches and a single body kick, and Hermansson blitzes forward with a wide combination that mostly misses the mark. A heavy low kick connects for the Swede, but it is one-and-done as he backs away to reset. Strickland lands cleanly with a power jab, and he winds up with a power punch only for Hermansson to greet him with one of his own. They club one another in the face with big punches, and Strickland scores a few kicks to the body. Strickland sits back, avoids a punch and lets go with a right hand that knocks Hermansson cleanly off his feet. Strickland does not give chase, letting Hermansson up as the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 3
Strickland’s jab starts off again in the round, as he stabs out his fist while Hermansson keeps a high, tight guard. Hermansson’s low kicks have ranging success, as some land cleanly while others get checked. The hand speed shifts in favor of Strickland, catching Hermansson on the way in when Hermansson loads up on powerful strikes. The kicks are marking Strickland’s legs up as well, but Strickland keeps a stiff upper lip and does not change his approach. Hermansson keeps the leg attack going as he eats punches, giving up jabs to land calf kicks. Hermansson tries to bob and weave, and Strickland’s accurate jab is able to still find the target as Hermansson’s face begins to change color. Hermansson sells out for a heavy body kick, and it pounds into Strickland’s liver. Strickland does not budget, and he proceeds to let loose a high kick that glances off Hermansson’s shoulder. “Tarzan” smoothly dodges punches while feeding Hermansson a steady diet of jabs, and he gets tagged with a looping left hand. Strickland gives it back with a body kick, allowing him to take a moment in case he needs to shake off the cobwebs. Hermansson’s variety is much more noteworthy than Strickland, as Strickland sticks to a few fundamentals while Hermansson is trying everything he can to close the distance and land with power punches. Strickland slips and moves, sticking Hermansson with jabs and occasionally mixing in a front kick. Strickland snipes Hermansson with a right hand, and he slings a high kick that is blocked just in the nick of time. They both trade heavy shots, with Strickland scoring a right hand while Hermansson gets off a head kick, and the third frame wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 4
The jab keeps right on coming from Strickland, but Hermansson is motivated to turn this into a wild brawl. The powerful punches of the Swede hit little but air, as Strickland calmly dodges and counters with jabs up the middle. Hermansson swings wide, using his forward momentum to go after a single-leg takedown, and Strickland keeps smart neck control by pushing Hermansson’s head down to fail on the attempt. The American is able to stop the try and gain some space, where he starts to add right hands in after stinging Hermansson with jabs. One such right hand stuns the Swede momentarily, but Hermansson shakes it off and throws back with bad intentions. Hermansson tries to punch around the jab, getting off a few right hands that loop around Strickland’s outstretched arm. Strickland doubles up on a jab, and Hermansson swings wild and goes wide. Strickland’s defensive nature does not put him into much danger, but it is damaging Hermansson to any noticeable degree. Strickland scores a leg kick, and he backs off as Hermansson goes for broke by ducking down and winging punches. Strickland does not absorb them and stays loose and light, jabbing out while windmilling punches go past him. Hermansson finally lands with a big right hand, but Strickland does not budge. Strickland continues to play the matador to Hermansson’s bull, and he pokes and prods Hermansson from a distance until the bell sounds. Both men appear to be bleeding after exchanges, with Strickland’s nose leaking while Hermansson has a cut under his right eye.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 5
Sensing he is likely down on the scorecards, Hermansson attacks recklessly with whipping punches. Strickland’s composure never changes, with his jab and footwork keeping him safe from the majority of harm. On the other hand, Hermansson throws so hard he nearly topples over, unable to find the range with more than a single strike in a salvo. Hermansson kicks the legs and body, and Strickland does what he does best with straight, sharp jabs right down Broadway. While Strickland gets off a one-two, Hermansson leaps ahead with a superman punch that pops Strickland on the cheek. Hermansson walks Strickland down, putting everything he has into his punches, and Strickland’s guard remains active and effective at staving off the worst that comes at him. Hermansson does not bother reacting to jabs any longer, and he throws hard at his opponent. Strickland gives it right back with a pair of one-twos, but he settles back to his calm, methodical pace while Hermansson shouts kiais after every strike. Strickland smoothly walks through a leg kick to push out a few jabs, and he leans to the side to slap Hermansson in the side of his calf. A whiff from Hermansson allows Strickland to counter heavily, but Hermansson does not falter. Instead, the Swede crashes forward in pursuit of a single-leg takedown, and Strickland’s takedown defense remains immaculate as he pushes Hermansson away. Strickland shrugs off a low kick so that he can belt Hermansson in the face with a right hand, and he jabs out a few more times for good measure. Strickland starts talking trash, telling Hermansson to brawl with him. Hermansson appears confused at this, and his confusion lets Strickland blast him in the face a few times. Hermansson obliges him in one final throwdown, and they let it go right to the final horn. There is no bad blood after the last exchange, as they slap one another on the shoulder and laugh after five hard-fought rounds. After the head-scratching split decision score is read, Strickland thanks the UFC for the opportunity and says he is a “company man” and would be more than willing to fight the person that holds the belt next, if that is who’s next for him. The middleweight championship will be decided next week in Houston at UFC 271, with Sherdog in the building covering the fight card, so we will absolutely be there for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (50-45 Strickland)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (50-45 Strickland)

The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Jack Hermansson via Split Decision (49-46, 47-48, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Angelo picks Sean Strickland but is hesitant. He notes Strickland's insane volume and solid takedown defense, but criticizes his lack of hip rotation and footwork. Hermansson is a great grappler who will shoot takedowns relentlessly. Angelo thinks Strickland's volume can win, but Hermansson could frustrate him with takedowns. He calls it a great live betting card.

Live bet suggestion: if Hermansson has early takedown success, bet him live.
"i am gonna go with sean here because i do think her manson can be submission or bust at times but i wouldn't be surprised if hermansen can get a few takedowns and really frustrate sean strickland and get that …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Cody agrees with Paul that Strickland's volume and cardio should win the fight, but he is hesitant about the decision prop. He notes that Hermansson has good wrestling and BJJ, and if anyone can take Strickland down, it's Hermansson. However, he thinks Strickland's takedown defense has improved and that the fight will likely be decided by volume down the stretch. He picks Strickland but is hesitant on the method.

Strickland by decision (hesitant)
"the pick's gonna be sean strickland i will take him by decision but kind of hesitant on that part so far"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Daniel Levi picks Sean Strickland, citing his improved power at middleweight and his ability to stuff takedowns and get back up. He notes that Strickland's wrestling is underrated, having taken down Uriah Hall and Brendan Allen. Levi believes Jack Hermansson's herky-jerky striking won't trouble Strickland, and that Hermansson shells up when hit, while Strickland thrives on pressure. He predicts a late finish or unanimous decision for Strickland.

"I gotta go with strickland here to kind of just put it on jack push that pace prevent jack from getting in the spots he wants to be in and light him up so sean strickland i'm gonna say either …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Lock of the Night favors Strickland, citing his high output and volume striking that will drown Hermansson on the feet. He acknowledges the unknown of Strickland's takedown defense at 185 but believes his black belt and training with Kutila will suffice. He expects Strickland to get back to his feet and outpoint Hermansson, similar to the Vettori fight. He likes the over 4.5 rounds and Strickland by decision.

over 4.5 rounds -130, fight goes to decision +100, Strickland by decision +150
"i think hermansen gets absolutely drowned with with the output and volume that sean strickland's going to be putting on him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Paul thinks Strickland's volume and cardio will be the difference in a five-round fight. He notes that Strickland lands a high volume of significant strikes and that Hermansson may struggle to keep up. He also mentions that Strickland's wrestling is rarely tested but he trains with great wrestlers, so Hermansson's takedown edge is uncertain. Paul picks Strickland but says the price is about right.

"i'm gonna go with sean strickland to get the job done here but i think the the price is about right"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland, citing his experience and underrated grappling. He notes that Khamzat Chimaev flies across the world to train grappling with Strickland, implying high-level skills. He predicts Strickland will piece up Hermansson on the feet, stuff takedowns, and win a decision (50-45 or 50-44). He mentions Hermansson doesn't take damage well, as seen in the Uriah Hall fight.

decision, 50-45, 50-44
"i'm gonna go with sean strickland here over jack manson... i think strickland's gonna do very well here i don't see him anton out striking him i don't see him anson ko in him i just see strickland putting it …"
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Hermansson 0 55 of 100 55% 141 of 192 3 of 6 50% 0 0 7:11
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 40 of 92 43% 42 of 94 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Hermansson 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 26 of 67 38% 26 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Hermansson 0 6 of 13 46% 24 of 35 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:54
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 10 of 17 58% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:51
3 Jack Hermansson 0 31 of 45 68% 99 of 115 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:14
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Hermansson 55 of 100 55% 44 of 82 3 of 6 8 of 12 20 of 56 0 of 0 35 of 44
Edmen Shahbazyan 40 of 92 43% 34 of 84 6 of 8 0 of 0 30 of 77 3 of 4 7 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Hermansson 18 of 42 42% 7 of 24 3 of 6 8 of 12 18 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edmen Shahbazyan 26 of 67 38% 21 of 60 5 of 7 0 of 0 26 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jack Hermansson 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 4 of 5
Edmen Shahbazyan 10 of 17 58% 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 3 of 4 7 of 11
3 Jack Hermansson 31 of 45 68% 31 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 31 of 39
Edmen Shahbazyan 4 of 8 50% 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jack Hermansson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan

Round 1
The main card commences with a high-stakes middleweight showdown as “The Joker” Hermansson (21-6, 8-4 UFC) will try to take more shine away from “The Golden Boy” Shahbazyan (11-1, 4-1 UFC). Two finishers will collide here, with 27 stoppage wins among their 32 career victories, so referee Herb Dean will need to mind his P’s and Q’s. There is no sign of a glove touch, as the two would rather get right down to business. Hermansson hops around as he takes the center of the cage, where he lets go with several front kicks to the knee. Shahbazyan loads up on a few punches down the middle, and Hermansson swats them away and kicks his lead leg. Shahbazyan sneaks in a right hand, and he follows it with a few more powerful strikes that give Hermansson some pause. “The Joker” sits down on a jab, and he gets countered with a left hand on the way in. Three big punches from Shahbazyan ricochet off Hermansson’s guard, and he splits that guard with an uppercut. Hermansson looses a few head kicks and a leg kick, and a jab that comes his way stings him on the chin. A long shot from Hermansson is unsuccessful, as Shahbazyan hops back and lands a big uppercut as the Swede stands. Hermansson rushes in to throw hands, but Shahbazyan’s sharper jab gives him some pause. A few punches from Shahbazyan have marked up Hermansson’s face, but the Swede gives him a response with a few kicks. Shahbazyan’s hands continue to land, and a single leg kick from Hermansson finds its home. Shahbazyan mixes it up with body shots as he jabs, forcing Hermansson to shoot in on him from a distance. “The Golden Boy” shines as he stuffs it, and he cracks Hermansson with a right hand. Hermansson walks through everything, until he meets a one-two that wobbles his knees. “The Joker” is not laughing as he stalks Shahbazyan down, but Shahbazyan is the one landing practically at will. Shahbazyan circles on the outside and reaches out with a front kick, and he sticks Hermansson with a few jabs. Hermansson fires off a kick on the inside leg, and one on the outside, but Shahbazyan ignores them and drills him in the face with a pair of punches. Hermansson gets busted up with a nasty jab, and Hermansson throws wildly with power strikes but is largely inaccurate. Hermansson attacks, but those strikes do not find their home as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan

Round 2
Hermansson is ready to throw bombs as he starts the second round, and he clips Shahbazyan with an uppercut as he closes the distance. The Swede gets in close with his strikes, and he attempts a single leg takedown when he has Shahbazyan pushed against the fence. “The Joker” scoops up the legs, and he plants Shahbazyan firmly on his back. Shahbazyan closes the guard, but he is eating some serious ground-and-pound as Hermansson starts to unload on him. As a cut opens on his eyebrow from a strike, Shahbazyan wildly scrambles to burst back to his feet. Hermansson keeps him held tight with the threat of a guillotine choke as he leans against the cage wall, and he tightens it when Shahbazyan tries to step out. One solid elbow from Shahbazyan lands, but Hermansson tackles him down right into a guillotine choke from Shahbazyan. The Swede welcomes the exchange, as he is not concerned about the arm around his neck, and instead puts Shahbazyan down to the ground and hops to mount. Shahbazyan recovers position slightly, and Hermansson sits in a high half guard as he elbows Shahbazyan. A few more elbows for Hermansson land as he puts a knee on the belly to slice to full mount, but Shahbazyan is bucking like a bronco. Hermansson is unable to pass position, but he isolates an arm to hunt for a kimura. When Shahbazyan kicks to get out, Hermansson jumps a bit too high and Shahbazyan slides out the back door. Hermansson falls over, and Shahbazyan climbs on top to land a single elbow. “The Golden Boy” reaches down for a guillotine choke to keep the Swede in a position he would prefer, and bails on it to get into half guard. One big thudding elbow from Shahbazyan lands as Hermansson sits up, and “The Joker” twists and turns but falls short in his escape attempt. Hermansson kicks him off, and misses with a few upkicks. This is the perfect moment for Shahbazyan, who dives down with heavy ground-and-pound to end the round violently.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hermansson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hermansson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hermansson

Round 3
The middleweights meet in the center of the cage, and both land single strikes on the other. Shahbazyan sticks out a few jabs, and Hermansson shrugs them off only to get stung with an uppercut. “The Joker” blocks a front kick up the middle, and Hermansson shoots in for a single. He is able to scoop Shahbazyan off the ground, and a second attempt puts “The Golden Boy” on his back. Hermansson, sitting in half guard, frees his right hand to start raining it down on the jaw of the American. Hermansson clubs him with punches and squeezes down with shoulder pressure to pass to mount. Hermansson elbows him a few times, and lands some thudding right hands that bounce Shahbazyan’s head off the cage floor. The Swede continues to pour it on with punches and elbows, and a big cut has opened up around Shahbazyan’s right eye. Hermansson stays comfortable in half guard, thwarting any of Shahbazyan attempts to get up and making him pay for each one with strikes. The blood continues to flow from the man on bottom, and Hermansson opens up with a barrage of nasty elbows as he looks to force a stoppage. Dean keeps a close eye on the proceedings as Hermansson wails on him, and Hermansson sits up to hammer down with a huge elbow. Hermansson steps over into side control as he lands hammerfists, and he turns it into a north-south before taking the other side. Hermansson steps to mount with seconds to go, and he unloads with a fury of punches until the final bloody round ends. As soon as the bell rings, Hermansson gets up and helps a battered Shahbazyan back up to his feet.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Hermansson (29-27 Hermansson)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Hermansson (29-27 Hermansson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Hermansson (29-27 Hermansson)

The Official Result
Jack Hermansson def. Edmen Shahbazyan via Unanimous Decision (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Big Brady picks Hermansson to survive Shahbazyan's dangerous first round, then take over with takedowns and ground game. He notes Shahbazyan's cardio issues and high finish rate (91%) but believes Hermansson's grappling and experience will lead to a second-round submission. He acknowledges Shahbazyan could knock him out early.

Hermansson by second-round submission
"i will take jacker manson to win would i be shocked if he got knocked down the first round though i wouldn't"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Cody Saftic picks Jack Hermansson, criticizing the matchmaking for Shahbazyan. He notes that Hermansson is a strong wrestler with good cardio, while Shahbazyan has shown poor takedown defense and gassing issues. Saftic believes Hermansson will take the fight to the ground and wear Shahbazyan down, similar to what Derek Brunson did. He sees value at -150 and considers it a strong play.

Hermansson by submission or TKO (late rounds)
"i gotta go to jack hermans and get the job done i'm with you as well i think we're always on that same page"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Daniel Levi picks Edmen Shahbazyan, arguing that Shahbazyan is a young phenom with knockout power and takedown ability, and that his loss to Brunson was due to inexperience. He believes Jack Hermansson is a one-trick pony with poor striking defense and that he took too much damage in his last fight (broken orbital). He predicts Shahbazyan will knock out Hermansson in the first round, calling it a dog or pass situation.

first round knockout
"i actually think that edmond's going to come out here and knock jack out in the first round i think jack took too much damage that last fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Matt picks Edmen Shahbazyan by knockout, believing Shahbazyan's striking advantage and power will be too much for Hermansson. He notes Hermansson's defensive striking issues, having been hit by Cannonier, Vettori, and others. He thinks Shahbazyan's cardio issues may still exist, but he should finish within two rounds. He compares the matchup to Derek Brunson's win over Shahbazyan, but notes Brunson is more defensively sound than Hermansson. He likes Shahbazyan by KO at +265 and round 1 KO at +325.

Edmen Shahbazyan by KO (+265), Edmen Shahbazyan round 1 (+325)
"i got edmund shabazzian by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Paul Shaughnessy agrees with Hermansson, noting that the line seems too good to be true. He points out that Hermansson has fought top competition and has good cardio, while Shahbazyan was dominated by Brunson. He suggests that if Shahbazyan wins, it would likely be by early knockout, but the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Hermansson. He recommends Hermansson by knockout at +265 as a prop.

Shahbazyan by knockout (alternative play)
"i would just take the plus 265 shabazin by knockout i see out there that seems like a much better play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Jack Hermansson

The MMA Guru predicts Jack Hermansson will win by first-round submission via arm-in guillotine. He expects Shahbazyan to show improvements on the feet and stuff some takedowns early, but Hermansson will eventually catch him in a scramble as Shahbazyan tries to get back up, latching onto the guillotine for the finish.

"i'm going to be going with the joker jack hermansen i think he's going to get this one done by first round submission"
LOSS vs Marvin Vettori
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Hermansson vs. Vettori · Dec 05, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marvin Vettori 0 122 of 346 35% 139 of 365 2 of 7 28% 0 0 0:28
Jack Hermansson 1 164 of 334 49% 202 of 376 0 of 1 0% 1 1 5:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marvin Vettori 0 16 of 38 42% 17 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jack Hermansson 1 23 of 47 48% 58 of 83 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:29
2 Marvin Vettori 0 15 of 35 42% 20 of 40 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:28
Jack Hermansson 0 12 of 24 50% 14 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:28
3 Marvin Vettori 0 29 of 72 40% 35 of 78 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Jack Hermansson 0 23 of 50 46% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Marvin Vettori 0 32 of 106 30% 32 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jack Hermansson 0 52 of 104 50% 52 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Marvin Vettori 0 30 of 95 31% 35 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jack Hermansson 0 54 of 109 49% 55 of 111 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marvin Vettori 122 of 346 35% 86 of 306 18 of 22 18 of 18 118 of 339 4 of 7 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 164 of 334 49% 143 of 312 18 of 19 3 of 3 156 of 320 0 of 1 8 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marvin Vettori 16 of 38 42% 8 of 28 3 of 5 5 of 5 15 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 23 of 47 48% 18 of 42 5 of 5 0 of 0 18 of 37 0 of 0 5 of 10
2 Marvin Vettori 15 of 35 42% 7 of 27 4 of 4 4 of 4 14 of 32 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 12 of 24 50% 7 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 21 0 of 0 3 of 3
3 Marvin Vettori 29 of 72 40% 21 of 62 5 of 7 3 of 3 29 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 23 of 50 46% 20 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0 23 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Marvin Vettori 32 of 106 30% 28 of 102 1 of 1 3 of 3 30 of 103 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 52 of 104 50% 46 of 98 6 of 6 0 of 0 52 of 103 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Marvin Vettori 30 of 95 31% 22 of 87 5 of 5 3 of 3 30 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 54 of 109 49% 52 of 106 2 of 3 0 of 0 54 of 109 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Big Brady picks Jack Hermansson as a dog, surprised by the line movement making Vettori the favorite. He believes Hermansson's cardio in the championship rounds is superior, as Vettori has slowed in the third round of three-round fights. He sees Hermansson's takedowns and ground game as key to grinding Vettori down, and notes Hermansson has faced tougher competition recently. He expects Hermansson to win a decision, possibly taking the last two rounds.

Hermansson by decision; line movement surprising; Vettori's cardio a concern; Hermansson's cardio looked good in five-round fights
"I'm actually going to believe it or not take the dog here and Jack Hermansson... I just think the extra two rounds it's really sketchy the line is sketchy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Daniel picks Jack Hermansson, arguing that Marvin Vettori's hype is inflated by a close fight with Israel Adesanya, which was not a true split decision. He notes that Hermansson has better volume, proven five-round cardio, and submission threats, as seen against Jacare Souza. He also questions Vettori's power, stating he doesn't have the one-punch knockout ability to stop Hermansson. However, he acknowledges that Hermansson's mental state could be a factor if he doesn't want to be there.

Surprised Hermansson is an underdog; thinks he should be a slight favorite.
"I'm actually gonna go on the opposite side here I'm gonna take jack herman... I was actually kind of surprised that he was an underdog in this spot I felt like he should have been at least a sly favorite …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

The host picks Jack Hermansson to win by decision, citing his superior wrestling and top pressure, especially in a five-round fight. He notes that Vettori has not faced someone with Hermansson's ground game and that Hermansson's unorthodox style and lanky strength will be key. He is not confident enough to bet Hermansson at current odds but would consider it if the line widens to +150.

Jack Hermansson by decision at +525 is mentioned as a possible small play; Hermansson inside distance +160; Vettori's durability noted.
"I'm going her mansion here to win by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

The MMA Guru picks Jack Hermansson by submission in the first two rounds, emphasizing that Hermansson's style is completely different from Jacare's—he fights on the outside, chops at the legs, and waits for takedowns. He believes Vettori is taking a jump too soon and that Hermansson's explosive grappling will be too much. He notes Hermansson almost submitted Jacare with an arm-in guillotine on short notice and predicts a similar early submission here.

method: submission, round: 1-2
"i think her manson in the first two rounds by submission"
Chris Curtis - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 0 12 of 31 38% 57 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Myktybek Orolbai 0 20 of 28 71% 83 of 102 19 of 24 79% 0 0 12:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 2 of 10 20% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 0 16 of 21 76% 49 of 65 7 of 8 87% 0 0 4:02
2 Chris Curtis 0 6 of 13 46% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Myktybek Orolbai 0 2 of 3 66% 25 of 26 7 of 9 77% 0 0 4:13
3 Chris Curtis 0 4 of 8 50% 25 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 0 2 of 4 50% 9 of 11 5 of 7 71% 0 0 4:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 12 of 31 38% 6 of 25 6 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 28 2 of 2 1 of 1
Myktybek Orolbai 20 of 28 71% 13 of 18 3 of 4 4 of 6 5 of 10 1 of 1 14 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 2 of 10 20% 1 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 16 of 21 76% 13 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 3 3 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 16
2 Chris Curtis 6 of 13 46% 4 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1
Myktybek Orolbai 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Chris Curtis 4 of 8 50% 1 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo confidently picks Myktybek Orolbai, believing his relentless wrestling and pressure will be too much for Chris Curtis. He notes that Curtis had the highest takedown defense in middleweight but was taken down easily by Brendan Allen, and expects Orolbai to do the same. He thinks Orolbai will cruise to a decision win.

"I don't see Chris Curtis winning this fight. ... Motorbec's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Myktybek Orolbai to win by decision. He is concerned about Chris Curtis's age (38), layoff, and recent close fight with Max Griffin. He believes Orolbai is younger, hits harder, has wrestling upside, and is durable. He thinks Curtis's takedown defense, while good, hasn't been tested by wrestlers like Orolbai.

"I'm definitely going to My Titty Back here. I'm going to take My Titty Back to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody leans Curtis as a dog, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Orolbai's clunky technique and hittability. He thinks Curtis can outpoint him or catch him, but acknowledges Curtis is 39 and declining.

"I think I'm going to take a small little shot down the action man for old time sake."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, citing Curtis's tendency to lose focus and get distracted in fights, especially as he ages. He notes that Orolbai's relentless pressure could frustrate Curtis, leading to him arguing with the ref instead of fighting. He also mentions that Curtis has a history of finding ways to lose.

Orolbai opened at -250, currently -265; Curtis opened at +210, currently +225
"I think he is very clearly losing focus as he gets older and finding little distractions to get mad about in fights. ... And when a fighter gets to that point, unless they're in a really generous matchup, I just …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

James picks Myktybek Orolbai to win by decision, citing his volume, grappling upside, and the fact that Curtis often underperforms. He notes Curtis is a better striker but may be outworked and taken down. He calls it a strange fight and a potential stayaway for betting.

"I'm going to pick Oro to win the fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The host picks Orolbai to win by decision but is hesitant due to the high price. He expects Orolbai's aggression and output to overwhelm Curtis, but acknowledges Curtis is the better striker and could land a knockout. He notes that Orolbai's grappling may not be as effective against Curtis's defensive grappling, so the fight likely stays standing where Orolbai's pressure could edge him rounds. He suggests a hedge on Curtis by KO in round 3.

Curtis round 3 KO hedge
"I think Oro still gets the win here. I think he wins by decision. But I would think twice about this level of chalk against a veteran like Chris Curtis."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, citing his size, power, and youth. He notes Curtis' age and recent split decisions. He thinks Orolbai can bully Curtis and get a finish or decision.

"Oro by a minus 285 favorite to come back on. Your boy the action man plus 245."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Myktybek Orolbai

The Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his lightweight-level skills and toughness. He notes that Curtis struggled against Jack Hermansson, who Orolbai destroyed, and that Curtis's move to welterweight may not help. He predicts a TKO win for Orolbai.

Prediction: TKO
"I think Myktybek Orolbai is going to handle Chris Curtis... by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis despite being burned by him before. He believes Orolbai's unhampered aggression and lack of management tools will play into Curtis's counterpunching style. He notes Curtis's defensive wrestling and ability to catch Orolbai coming in, but acknowledges Curtis's tendency to lose focus and get frustrated.

Orolbai opened at -250, currently -265; Curtis opened at +210, currently +225
"I'll, I'll take Chris Curtis here. I just think a Ralby's unhampered aggression and complete lack of like management tools around that."
WIN vs Max Griffin
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Griffin 0 59 of 178 33% 63 of 185 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Chris Curtis 0 64 of 155 41% 71 of 162 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Griffin 0 21 of 48 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Chris Curtis 0 8 of 32 25% 11 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Max Griffin 0 17 of 58 29% 19 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Chris Curtis 0 21 of 52 40% 23 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Max Griffin 0 21 of 72 29% 22 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 35 of 71 49% 37 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Griffin 59 of 178 33% 38 of 147 14 of 21 7 of 10 58 of 175 1 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 64 of 155 41% 44 of 132 18 of 21 2 of 2 61 of 149 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Griffin 21 of 48 43% 14 of 38 4 of 6 3 of 4 20 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 8 of 32 25% 5 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Max Griffin 17 of 58 29% 12 of 51 2 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 21 of 52 40% 15 of 46 4 of 4 2 of 2 19 of 50 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Max Griffin 21 of 72 29% 12 of 58 8 of 12 1 of 2 21 of 71 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 35 of 71 49% 24 of 57 11 of 14 0 of 0 34 of 68 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Max Griffin vs. Chris Curtis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Curtis (-310); Griffin (+250)

Round 1
One win away from getting his .500 UFC record back, Griffin (20-11, 8-9 UFC) will be staring across the cage from Curtis (31-12, 1 NC; 5-4, 1 NC UFC). There are no more rules in MMA, as Curtis was able two weeks ago to violate one of the most seemingly inviolable rules of corner interference by
outright attacking his defeated fighter’s opponent
without so much as a whimper from the Nevada State Athletic Commission. “The Action Man” was so starved for action that he recently crashed Luis Hernandez’ victory party at Tuff-N-Uff 145, helping teammate Sean Strickland put hands on Hernandez. It’s time for these welterweights to bang it out with referee Justin Brown watching on. They don’t touch gloves.
Griffin springs after Curtis, pawing out short left hands that do not land. This continues for about 30 seconds, until “Pain” releases a painful calf kick. Curtis checks the second, and he eats a right hand down the pipe when countered. Curtis lunges with a single left hand, pulling back to reset. He stands still waiting for Griffin to come to him, suddenly releasing a pair of punches. Griffin launches a low kick, clacking square into Curtis’ cup loudly. The crowd unleashes boos, possibly doubting he took the illegal blow, but the replay confirms the contact. Brown gives Curtis time to recover, and after a minute, he is good to go. Griffin pump-fakes several times with his legs, but no one is really actually engaging. Curtis steps in to attack, and he complains to Brown that he was headbutted.
Brown tells him to fight on, blood flowing from the wound on Curtis’ head, and Curtis is fired up. He rushes at Griffin hurling punches, his vision partially obscured from the leaking head wound. He strings three punches together, and Griffin snaps his head back and makes Curtis smile. Curtis stalks after Griffin, enjoying himself now, and he takes a left hand so he can pound Griffin in the stomach and temple. Griffin sticks him with a right hand, getting on his bike to move and stay off the gunnery range. Curtis backs him to the wall, and Griffin springboards to get out. Curtis pins him down with a few punches, and he is grappled by “Pain.” Griffin pushes him to the fencing, separating with seconds left and taking a knee to the jaw. Curtis lashes out, grinning like a banshee, but nothing cleanly connects as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
The cut across Curtis’ eyebrow is sealed between rounds, but it is deep and wide. The two chatter at one another while trading hands, chasing one another around with momentum shifts. Curtis drills Griffin with a right hook, and Griffin has to hurry to get away before taking further damage. Griffin lets loose with a head kick that stuns Curtis, and as he tries to finish the job, Curtis nails him with a counter to put Griffin down. Griffin jumps back up, and Curtis is on him, swinging harder and with meaner intentions. The right hand from “The Action Man” splits a cut on the side of Griffin’s left eye, and he swings at the same spot when lunging. Griffin strafes to the side and looses a few punches to keep Curtis honest. Curtis slips as he engages, but is no worse for wear.
Curtis misses a massive uppercut by a matter of inches, and he continues to march after the older fighter. Curtis misses on a body kick, and he lands to put a right hand in Griffin’s face. Griffin kicks Curtis in the face, and Curtis completely ignores it but tells Brown that Griffin headbutted him again. The clinch results in a stalemate, and the spoiled fans in the building start booing quickly. The fighters trade knees when tied up before breaking apart, where Griffin gets off a one-two on the break. Curtis goes right after him, headhunting all the while, and Griffin tags him with a right. A second nearly stumbles Curtis, with his own strikes drawing no reaction from “Pain.” Griffin steps in to drive a shovel right hand to the torso, and Curtis grimaces and fires back with a knee. He then activates a reaching combination of punches, with Curtis knocking Griffin back and off the wall. They clinch up again, and Curtis catches him on the way out with a left hand. They hurl fists at one another until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis

Round 3
Curtis introduces himself with a pair of tight jabs, using them to break up the big swings from the advancing Griffin. Griffin fires right back, ending a salvo with a head kick that rebounds off the raised guard. Curtis walks his man down, and Griffin tags him a few times on the way in. Curtis ducks face-first into a right hand, and he takes a solid body kick that slips beneath his guard. He walks Griffin down to stab him in the torso with a long punch, and he keeps swinging until Griffin knocks him back with a right hand. The head movement from Curtis keeps him safe as he tries to remain in the pocket with his opponent, putting short combos together to decent effect. Griffin looses a few body shots and a head kick, and Curtis retaliates with similar punches.
When Curtis ducks again, Griffin times a head kick, but it is the body shot of Curtis that is doing some damage. Griffin backpedals, sucking wind a little, and Curtis lays into him with unanswered strikes. Griffin ducks and counters one with a right hand over the top, and he tries to answer Curtis back with his firepower. The short hooks do not have the same effect as Curtis’ wide swings, but they are effective at keeping Curtis from walking over him. Curtis lands with a hard right, and he finds his home with a left before Griffin tries to tie him up. Griffin marches forward, and Curtis trips him to the mat and smiles at him from ear-to-ear. It takes Griffin a moment to get up, and the two proceed to let one another have it. Knees, head kicks and plenty of fists fly as they ride out the remainder of the clock waging battle. Time expires, and they leave this in the hands of the judges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)

The Official Result
Chris Curtis def. Max Griffin via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis but expresses concern about his weight cut to welterweight at 37 years old, especially after a recent knockout. He thinks Curtis is the cleaner striker with good takedown defense, but worries about his chin durability after cutting weight. He notes that if the fight is actually at 185, he would be more confident and would bet on Curtis.

Concerned about weight cut; if fight is at 185, would bet on Curtis.
"Chris Curtis is going to be the pick. I don't love these odds going down in weight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady likes Chris Curtis as the better striker with higher volume and power. He notes Curtis has elite takedown defense and the fight will stay standing. He mentions Curtis went toe-to-toe with Roman Kopylov. He picks Curtis by decision but warns the line is wide and judges could be an issue.

decision
"Curtis by decision for me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The host is high on Curtis moving down to 170 lbs, where he spent most of his career before the UFC. He thinks this will be a great matchup for Curtis to showcase his danger at welterweight and expects him to finish Griffin in the second or third round. The pick is based on Curtis's experience at the weight and his finishing ability.

finish in round 2 or 3
"Curtis going down to 170 lbs, which is where he has spent the majority of his career before joining the UFC. I think this will be a great uh sign for him that he's going to start moving up. I …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis, noting he is a 3-to-1 favorite. He criticizes Max Griffin's split decision win over Tim Means and believes Curtis would finish Means. He highlights Curtis' experience (12 more pro fights) and his competitive performances against Brendan Allen and Roman Kopylov. He expects Curtis to keep the fight standing, use body shots, and finish Griffin by TKO in the second or third round.

second or third round TKO, body shot related
"I'm going with Chris Curtis over Max Griffin. He is the favorite here. 3 to one favorite."
LOSS vs Roman Kopylov
TKO (head kick) R3 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 0 142 of 261 54% 146 of 265 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 1 130 of 307 42% 133 of 310 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 42 of 83 50% 42 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 48 of 110 43% 48 of 110 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Kopylov 0 58 of 104 55% 59 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 38 of 96 39% 38 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Roman Kopylov 0 42 of 74 56% 45 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 1 44 of 101 43% 47 of 104 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 142 of 261 54% 107 of 204 30 of 52 5 of 5 142 of 261 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 130 of 307 42% 91 of 266 14 of 16 25 of 25 124 of 300 4 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 42 of 83 50% 32 of 62 8 of 19 2 of 2 42 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 48 of 110 43% 33 of 93 6 of 8 9 of 9 46 of 108 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Roman Kopylov 58 of 104 55% 42 of 78 14 of 24 2 of 2 58 of 104 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 38 of 96 39% 25 of 83 3 of 3 10 of 10 38 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Roman Kopylov 42 of 74 56% 33 of 64 8 of 9 1 of 1 42 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 44 of 101 43% 33 of 90 5 of 5 6 of 6 40 of 96 2 of 3 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov

Round 1
Fresh off a close five-rounder against rival Brendan Allen, Curtis (31-11, 1 NC; 5-3, 1 NC UFC) takes a step down in competition against Russian striker Kopylov (13-3, 5-3 UFC). While Kopylov has not been ranked, he is as dangerous as any, with knockouts accounting for four of his five triumphs in the Octagon. Keeping a lid on the middleweights will be referee Mark Smith, who clocks the fighters in as they opt for a glove touch. Curtis fights behind a jab, while Kopylov unleashes the first of likely many body kicks. Curtis crowds him with his hands, hoping to take some of those kicks away, but Kopylov chambers and fires off another. Kopylov kicks low and jabs high, and he circles when Curtis backs him up. Kopylov kicks low and is met with a body kick, and Curtis paws out three jabs in rapid succession. Kopylov scores a one-two, and jabs fly from both sides. Curtis kicks the body and gets his bell rung with a right hand, and the snapping jab that follows from Kopylov further stings him. Curtis shakes it off but absorbs another power jab, and he wipes his hands off to reset. Curtis prods out his own effective jab, doubling and tripling up on when he chooses. Curtis keeps his guard up after throwing, but Kopylov still manages to split it with a flurry. Kopylov pounds the front leg with a kick, and he fires off a one-two down the pipe. Curtis walks through it and hand-fights to get his way in. Kopylov flicks out numerous jabs, and Curtis gets tired of dealing with them and crashing forward with an uppercut. Curtis scores a right hand, and Kopylov grabs a leg and lets it go to score a body shot. Kopylov goes for another takedown, and bails on it before Curtis can properly defend. Kopylov kicks the body and dings “The Action Man” with a counter, but Curtis’ left hand lands flush as well. Curtis snaps the head back with an uppercut, reddening the Russian’s nose and forcing him to backpedal. Curtis walks him down behind a series of jabs, and he is ready to block the high kick he expects is coming. Curtis partially deflects a leg kick and puts out a left hand to counter another, and he mixes up jabs and kicks to keep Kopylov guessing. Kopylov strings together four punches that all bounce off the raised guard, and he takes a deep breath and loses his mouthpiece. Before Curtis can reach him, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves before getting right back to it, with volume striking on both sides. Curtis digs a few to the body when not jabbing up high, and he zips a right hand over the top after eating a left hook from the Russian. Curtis slams another right to the midsection, and he keeps walking Kopylov down and scoring cleanly. A clean left hand from Curtis shreds open a cut on Kopylov’s right eyebrow, and blood pours from it as soon as it opens. Curtis is in his groove, jabbing and setting up strikes after the jabs. The damage mounts fast from Curtis, who has also bloodied up Kopylov’s nose. Curtis does not take his foot off the gas, proving with jab after jab. Kopylov swings back with a looping right hand, but it ricochets down to Curtis’ cup. This is fortuitous for Kopylov, but Curtis takes just a few seconds to recover after Smith calls time. Curtis stays in Kopylov’s face, walking through body kicks and jabs so he can score his own strikes. Curtis dips and tags Kopylov with a right hand, and after an exchange, Kopylov reaches out with a right hand and pokes Curtis square in the eye. Curtis turns away and asks for a towel to wipe his eye out, trying to hurry so he does not let Kopylov have time to catch his breath. Smith warns the Russian for his second foul, and they touch gloves. Curtis puts his jab in Kopylov’s face time and again, ignoring a calf kick so he can pepper Kopylov with right hands. Kopylov winds up and cracks Curtis with a left hand that stuns “The Action Man,” and Curtis momentarily has to stop and recover. He is quick back to his all-volume approach, and he puts a knuckle in Kopylov’s eye to make him blink it out. Curtis flashes his jabs, and his guard is high and effective but Kopylov keeps throwing back valiantly. Curtis turns and rolls with most of the worst of them, and he puts three punches on the chin. Kopylov returns fire with a few jabs and a body kick, and he connects hard with a left hand that would have felled lesser fighters. The second stanza comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis

Round 3
There is a double glove touch to commence the final frame, and unsurprisingly the middleweights want to hit one another in the face furiously and frequently. Kopylov keeps his range with a body kick, and he finds home with an uppercut as Curtis is chasing him. Curtis’ guard is up, but Kopylov is still connecting on him at least in part. Curtis doubles his jab up, and Kopylov puts more mustard behind his strikes. Curtis brings up an uppercut, and Kopylov steels himself and winds up with a left hand that staggers “The Action Man.” Kopylov blasts the body and works the lead leg, and Curtis shakes his head but may be fading. Curtis jabs his way into range, and he kicks Kopylov in the ribs and uppercuts him as well. Kopylov pins a one-two on the chin, and blood sprays from his mouth, nose and cut when he takes strikes. Kopylov is warned for outstretched fingers, and he gives Curtis the business with another uppercut to the body. When Curtis advances, Kopylov times a double to plant the veteran on his back. Curtis scrambles like a madman to get to his knees and wall-walk upright, and Kopylov wrenches him back down. Curtis recovers again, takes a partial head kick and lays into Kopylov. The Russian lets his fists fly, knocking Curtis’ head around, and somehow Curtis is not only still in the fight but firing back with a vengeance. Kopylov backs off, fatigue setting in hard, and he takes a deep breath and shoots for a takedown. Kopylov sells out for the single, and Curtis defends with the guillotine choke and pushes off with seconds to spare. Putting everything behind their final blows, they swing it out for one bit flurry.
Kopylov looses a head kick at the tail end of the match and walks away, stumbling Curtis and putting him down to the ground. Smith looks closely at Curtis and decides to wave the fight off with about a second to go
, and Curtis is incensed at the stoppage as Kopylov walked off and was not laying into him with finalizing blows. It is a bitter pill to swallow for “The Action Man,” who firmly believes Smith should not have intervened and that it should have gone to the scorecards, where he had a chance at winning. The complaints are not heard, as the referee is the sole arbiter of the bout and the fight is over. Kopylov has just earned the biggest win of his career, doing it over an iron-chinned competitor that had only been knocked out once.

The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Chris Curtis R3 4:59 via TKO (Head Kick)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, stating he is the better striker in a matchup that will likely stay on the feet. He acknowledges Chris Curtis is the more well-rounded fighter but notes Curtis rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kopylov's kickboxing to outpoint Curtis, leading to a decision win. He mentions the odds have widened from -180 to -245.

"Roman kopilov is the better Striker so Roman kopilov has to be the pick it's that simple Striker versus Striker I'm going with the better Striker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Big Brady expects a striker's delight with both guys likely not looking for takedowns. He notes Kopylov has more tools on the feet, including kicks, volume, and power. He points out Curtis is knockout-reliant and not a minute-winner, while Kopylov is durable with a big head. He predicts Kopylov wins by decision, as both are durable and have only one knockout loss combined.

"I like kopov here I think kopov probably wins this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody is all in on Curtis as a +210 underdog, citing Kopylov's cardio issues and Curtis's experience and body work. He expects Kopylov to fade in rounds 2-3, allowing Curtis to take over. He also dismisses the 'spygate' drama as gamesmanship.

"sign me up for action man he this might be our last big cash on action man you know but uh I'm here for it dude I'm absolutely here for it so plus 210 sign me up for Chris Curtis"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor picks Kopylov because Curtis is an emotional fighter who struggles when frustrated, and Kopylov is a momentum builder who can take over as the fight goes on. Curtis's counter-punching style and predictable footwork make him vulnerable to Kopylov's kicking game and pressure. While Curtis has a path to victory by pressuring and leading, Connor doubts he will execute it consistently. Kopylov's ability to build momentum and his improved game after early UFC struggles are key factors.

"So I got to pick Koppelov here, I just, yeah, I'm my inclination is to pick Koppelov as well."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Daniel believes Kopylov has the tools to keep Curtis at distance with jabs and body kicks, but worries about Kopylov's cardio in later rounds. He notes Curtis is a durable southpaw pocket boxer with elite takedown defense. He thinks Kopylov can win a decision if he avoids pocket exchanges, but it could get sketchy late. He picks Kopylov but is concerned about the -250 price.

"I think Roman kopov is going to come out here and pick him apart but it could get sketchy late second round late third round"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Lucrative James confidently picks Roman Kopylov, stating he has all the tools to win. He highlights Kopylov's kicking, footwork, and potential grappling advantage, noting that Chris Curtis refuses to wrestle. He believes the blueprint to beat Curtis is the Jack Hermansson game plan, which Kopylov can replicate. He warns that Curtis is a better boxer and can crack, but outside of a big shot, he sees Kopylov winning clearly.

"I think Roman copy love has all the tools to win in this one if he doesn't get caught with a big shot in the middle of the Octagon tradeing I think that he's going to win the fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Kopylov is a superior striker and should be able to touch up Curtis, who is at a disadvantage fighting at middleweight. However, Kopylov's cardio can falter in deep water, which Curtis could exploit. Still, Kopylov has enough power to be the second person to finish Curtis by knockout in 43 professional fights.

by knockout
"I still have to lean with copil love as I think he's a superior Striker and has enough sting on his shots to be the second person to finish Chris Curtis by knockout and 43 professional fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul initially picked Kopylov but flipped to Curtis after Cody's argument. He agrees that Kopylov's wrestling won't be effective and that Curtis has cardio and volume advantages. He notes the line is too high on Kopylov.

"I'm flipping my pick we all go down together with the action man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The Guru confidently picks Kopylov, calling Curtis a 'crybaby' and criticizing his basic style. He believes Kopylov's striking versatility (head, body, leg kicks) will outclass Curtis's boxing-heavy approach. He notes Curtis's age (37), recent leg injury, and the spy controversy as signs of weakness. He expects a striking match where Kopylov sets patterns and breaks Curtis down.

"I'm going Roman copy love to win this one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Zane also picks Kopylov, noting that Curtis is a smart fighter but often gets in his own head. Kopylov is weak going backwards, but Curtis is weak going forward and cutting off the cage. Zane envisions a neutral fight where both struggle to impose their game, but Kopylov's ability to build momentum and Curtis's tendency to be inactive give Kopylov the edge. Zane does not trust Curtis to fight smart consistently.

"But I am also going to take Koppelov because much as I love him and respect him. I do not trust Chris Curtis."
LOSS vs Brendan Allen
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brendan Allen 0 112 of 222 50% 128 of 242 6 of 13 46% 0 0 6:05
Chris Curtis 0 124 of 241 51% 141 of 261 0 of 0 --- 0 2 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brendan Allen 0 22 of 40 55% 24 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:17
Chris Curtis 0 13 of 41 31% 16 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Brendan Allen 0 29 of 66 43% 29 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Chris Curtis 0 46 of 80 57% 46 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brendan Allen 0 23 of 42 54% 31 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:03
Chris Curtis 0 23 of 45 51% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Brendan Allen 0 25 of 39 64% 28 of 44 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:24
Chris Curtis 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:05
5 Brendan Allen 0 13 of 35 37% 16 of 38 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:14
Chris Curtis 0 21 of 31 67% 35 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brendan Allen 112 of 222 50% 72 of 172 25 of 34 15 of 16 108 of 214 4 of 8 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 124 of 241 51% 96 of 205 25 of 33 3 of 3 122 of 237 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brendan Allen 22 of 40 55% 12 of 26 7 of 10 3 of 4 22 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 13 of 41 31% 8 of 34 5 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brendan Allen 29 of 66 43% 20 of 55 6 of 8 3 of 3 28 of 64 1 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 46 of 80 57% 36 of 67 8 of 11 2 of 2 46 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Brendan Allen 23 of 42 54% 14 of 31 4 of 6 5 of 5 22 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 23 of 45 51% 18 of 38 5 of 7 0 of 0 22 of 43 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Brendan Allen 25 of 39 64% 16 of 30 6 of 6 3 of 3 25 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 21 of 44 47% 17 of 39 3 of 4 1 of 1 21 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Brendan Allen 13 of 35 37% 10 of 30 2 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 31 2 of 4 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 21 of 31 67% 17 of 27 4 of 4 0 of 0 20 of 29 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis because he already knocked out Brendan Allen in under two minutes in their first fight. He believes Allen's recent win streak is impressive but that he can only win by getting the fight to the ground, which is very difficult against Curtis's takedown defense. Angelo also notes that Curtis on short notice may be better because he doesn't overthink. He mentions that underdogs have won 63% of main events in 2024 and expects that trend to continue.

underdogs have won 63% of main events in 2024
"I got to go Chris here... Chris Curtis is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, noting that he doesn't understand why Allen is a 2-to-1 favorite. He highlights Curtis's elite takedown defense, durability, and cardio, and believes the fight will take place on the feet, where Curtis is more defensively sound and durable. He thinks Allen is hitable and has been knocked out before, and predicts Curtis will find Allen's chin over 25 minutes and win by third-round knockout.

win by third round knockout
"I'm taking Chris Curtis here I'm taking Chris Curtis to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Allen's wins have come against one-dimensional grapplers, while Curtis is a sprawl-and-brawl boxer who works the body and legs. He points out that Curtis has looked midling lately but still has the style to beat Allen. Cody also highlights that Curtis knows Allen from sparring and took the first fight on short notice, and that the five-round fight favors Curtis's power and cardio. He expects Curtis to win by TKO again.

likely by TKO
"I think asman does it again... Chris Curtis likely by TKO"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Daniel Vreeland picks Brendan Allen but is hesitant due to Allen's ego and past knockout loss to Curtis. He notes Allen has improved since their first fight, with a six-fight win streak and better grappling as a black belt. However, he worries Allen might get distracted by Sean Strickland's trash talk and engage in pocket exchanges where Curtis excels. Vreeland believes Allen has more paths to victory if he fights smart, using kicks and distance to avoid brawling, and can win by volume or submission if he gets top control.

"I'm gonna go Brendan Allen but I'd be remissed if I left this out... if Brennan's gonna fight with his ego... I'd move in on a Chris Curtis live bet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Curtis has the striking advantage and an iron chin. Allen's wrestling isn't good enough to get Curtis down consistently. In the pocket, Curtis will land the bigger shots and likely knock Allen out again, as he did in their first fight. The line is too wide for Allen.

Curtis by KO (around +250)
"I'm going to go with Curtis here you know rematches normally don't always go the same as the first fight but considering the stylistic Clash that we have here and some of the shortcomings that Allen has with the wrestling …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul thinks Chris Curtis is a bad matchup for Brendan Allen again. He notes Allen has improved but Curtis is a brick wall with solid boxing, body work, and five-round cardio. Paul believes Curtis's sprawl-and-brawl style will stifle Allen's takedowns and that Curtis will eventually land his power, likely by TKO. He also mentions Curtis took the fight on short notice last time and still won, and that the five-round distance favors Curtis's pressure.

likely by TKO
"I still think that this is a bad match up for Brennan Allen... Chris Curtis likely by TKO"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

The host provides a detailed breakdown, noting Allen was doing well in the first fight before getting caught. He highlights Allen's improved offensive grappling (submitting Paul Craig, holding his own against Jacob Malkoun) and striking. He sees Curtis regressing, losing power, and taking the fight on short notice. He predicts Allen will win by submission in the first round via rear-naked choke, using body kicks to set up takedowns and chain wrestling to take Curtis' back.

submission win predicted, first round rear-naked choke
"I'm going to say that he gets this one done by submission and I'm going to say that he gets it done in the first round actually I'm going to say first round rear naked choke for Brendan Allen"
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 0 140 of 258 54% 144 of 262 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 122 of 243 50% 124 of 245 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 23 of 48 47% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Curtis 0 51 of 99 51% 51 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 45 of 85 52% 45 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Curtis 0 66 of 111 59% 70 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 59 of 112 52% 61 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 140 of 258 54% 101 of 210 35 of 44 4 of 4 116 of 230 24 of 28 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 122 of 243 50% 77 of 189 33 of 42 12 of 12 105 of 218 17 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 23 of 48 47% 15 of 36 5 of 9 3 of 3 23 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 18 of 46 39% 8 of 35 4 of 5 6 of 6 18 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Curtis 51 of 99 51% 40 of 85 10 of 13 1 of 1 47 of 95 4 of 4 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 45 of 85 52% 28 of 64 14 of 18 3 of 3 45 of 84 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Chris Curtis 66 of 111 59% 46 of 89 20 of 22 0 of 0 46 of 87 20 of 24 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 59 of 112 52% 41 of 90 15 of 19 3 of 3 42 of 88 17 of 24 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Angelo leans Barriault, citing his forward pressure, toughness, and Canadian home advantage. He worries that Curtis's counter-striking style may not impress judges if he's backing up. He notes Barriault must avoid Curtis's big hook. He has placed a quarter unit on Barriault at plus 150 and may add more if the line moves.

Quarter unit bet at +150; may add more if line moves to +200
"I am G to pick Mark Andre here I'm going to lean Mark Andre here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Big Brady picks Barriault as a dog, saying the odds make no sense. He notes Curtis is a slow starter who gets outlanded in most fights, while Barriault has high volume and is fighting in Canada. He expects a close fight that goes to decision, with Canadian judges potentially favoring Barriault. He doubts either fighter gets a knockout.

split decision
"give me the dog here Mark andario I do not get this line whatsoever"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody picks Curtis due to his higher level of competition and power advantage. He notes Curtis is a slow starter but has nasty power and volume. He expects a third-round TKO or decision win for Curtis.

Curtis by TKO in round 3
"I think it's going to be a third round stoppage for by TKO for Action Man or a decision win."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Vreeland picks Barriault as a home dog, noting his grappling and durability. He sees the fight as even but likes the plus money on Barriault. Vreeland acknowledges Barriault's cardio and durability as strengths, but doesn't elaborate on a specific path to victory beyond the value.

plus 165 dog money on home soil
"I'll go with bario I think it's worth a stab at at the dog money on his on his home soil um good Grappler doesn't doesn't rely on grappling very much better Striker but less power than than Curtis so …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Daniel Vreeland picks Marc-André Barriault as a live dog. He notes that Curtis often needs a knockout to win, otherwise he loses decisions. Barriault is durable, has nasty uppercuts and elbows in the clinch, and can crack. Vreeland expects Barriault to win by decision if he survives Curtis's early power.

by decision
"I'm actually gonna pick him to win this fight probably by decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Fox picks Curtis, believing he is the right style to beat Barriault. He notes that Barriault's best weapons are cardio and durability, but Curtis doesn't overextend and stays within himself. Fox points to Curtis's defensive grappling against opponents like Brendan Allen and Nassourdine Imavov as evidence he can handle Barriault's grappling. He thinks Barriault gets hit a lot and isn't overly sharp on the feet, so Curtis should win if he doesn't get drawn into prolonged exchanges.

"I think Chris Curtis is the right kind of guy to beat Mark Andre bario uh if if you ask me what Bario's best weapon is I think it's pretty obvious it's disc cardio um it's cardio and his durability …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Curtis vs Barriault.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

I'm going with Barriault as an underdog. He is active, high pressure, high pace, and has great cardio. He can stick at distance, utilize kicks, and mix in the clinch. Curtis is reliant on a knockout to win, but Barriault's style should be tough for Curtis to overcome. I think Barriault puts together a better overall body of work and wins by decision.

decision victory
"as an underdog got to go with the guy bario here to go out there and put together their better overall body of workc to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Curtis by KO, citing his power advantage and Barriault's chinny history. He thinks Curtis will land a big shot after a slow start, possibly in round 2 or 3. He notes Barriault's cardio but believes Curtis's power is the difference.

Curtis by KO at +225
"I think Curtis by KO is how I see this fight playing out."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis, citing his body work and pressure. He notes Barriault's tendency to get overwhelmed by volume and gassing, and believes Curtis's body shots will be key. He mentions Curtis's power advantage and the motivation from training with Sean Strickland. He predicts a TKO via body shots in round two or three.

TKO via body shots, round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Chris Curtis here over Mark Andre barot"
No Contest (accidental clash of heads) R2 3:04 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 57 of 84 67% 59 of 86 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:22
Chris Curtis 0 26 of 61 42% 34 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 29 of 36 80% 31 of 38 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:07
Chris Curtis 0 15 of 32 46% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 28 of 48 58% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Chris Curtis 0 11 of 29 37% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 57 of 84 67% 27 of 48 8 of 12 22 of 24 54 of 80 3 of 4 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 26 of 61 42% 4 of 28 8 of 18 14 of 15 26 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 29 of 36 80% 11 of 16 4 of 6 14 of 14 28 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 15 of 32 46% 1 of 12 5 of 10 9 of 10 15 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Nassourdine Imavov 28 of 48 58% 16 of 32 4 of 6 8 of 10 26 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 11 of 29 37% 3 of 16 3 of 8 5 of 5 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov, but with hesitation. He notes that Chris Curtis is a great counter-striker but often backs up, which could lead to a decision loss. He believes Imavov's size and forward pressure will earn him a close decision. However, he admits he has never picked a Chris Curtis fight correctly, so he is fading his own pick.

"I picked nasridine which means Chris is going to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady leans towards Imavov because Chris Curtis is a slow starter who often loses the first round. He notes that both fighters are durable with only one KO loss combined, so the fight likely goes to decision. Imavov's early activity should win him the first round, and the later rounds will be close. He picks Imavov by decision.

fight goes to decision
"I do lean towards the Nazarene imove offside is going to be this reason... Chris Curtis is a very slow starter... I don't see him knocking out nazarethov... this fight is Going the Distance more often than not"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Cody picks Imavov, arguing that Curtis has taken too much damage recently (319 significant strikes in 4 fights) and is fighting too frequently. He notes that Curtis' style has reverted to a Philly shell, and he struggles against rangy fighters who stay on the outside. Imavov has speed, youth, and a long jab, and can fight at range. He expects Imavov to stay on the outside and pick Curtis apart.

"I think he just stays at the outside and paints a picture"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Connor agrees with Zane and picks Chris Curtis, though he is hesitant. He likes the way Curtis fights, describing him as a systematic pocket boxer with great hands and defense. Connor worries that Imavov could frustrate Curtis in short bursts, but notes that it's a three-round fight, so two rounds of Imavov's bursts might be enough. He ultimately sides with Curtis because he is a better fighter and more capable of closing doors when momentum shifts.

Curtis over 2.0 +105, currently +131; Imavov opened -116, now -146
"I'll pick I'll I'll stick with you and pick Chris Curtis here. I don't like it, but yeah, you see what I'm saying."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Daniel Levi picks Chris Curtis, agreeing with the co-host that Imavov does not have the volume or gas tank to implement the blueprint to beat Curtis. He notes that Curtis has excellent boxing, takedown defense, and body shots that can sap Imavov's cardio. He points out that Imavov has historically low output and has faded in fights, while Curtis is a dangerous counter-puncher. He believes the line offers value on Curtis.

"I really like Chris Curtis here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2023 (fight day)
Nassourdine Imavov

James picks Imavov to win by 29-28 decision. He thinks Imavov's range control and lead leg work will be key, and that Curtis struggles with fighters who don't stand in the pocket. He expects Imavov to win rounds one and two, with Curtis possibly taking round three. James notes Curtis is a good counter-striker but may take time to find his timing. He suggests live betting Curtis after round one if he loses it, as Curtis will likely be a bigger underdog then.

Chris Curtis KO round 3 at +2100 (small sprinkle)
"I'm calling it about a 29-28 win for a Marvel van"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Imavov's distance striking and kicking game should keep Curtis at range, frustrating his pocket boxing. Curtis has a significant size disadvantage (5-inch height difference) and may struggle to close distance. However, Curtis has KO power and could turn the fight if he drags Imavov into exchanges. Low confidence due to Curtis's finishing ability.

"I feel as though he is just more equipped to win this stylistic matchup not to mention the size disadvantage that Chris Curtis will be at"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Paul leans toward Imavov, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He notes that Curtis struggles to get into the pocket against fighters who stay at range, as seen in the Hermansson fight. The big cage in Vancouver will give Imavov room to move. However, Paul admits he cannot bet against Curtis with his own money because he likes him as a fighter.

"I'm with you I'm picking imov but I couldn't I couldn't I couldn't better but against our guy uh Chris Curtis with my actual money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis as an underdog, noting Imavov slows down in fights and has cardio issues. He believes Curtis has great takedown defense and can stop Imavov's takedowns, making Imavov worry. He also mentions Curtis trains with Sean Strickland, who recently beat Imavov. He predicts Curtis wins by decision, possibly with a third-round TKO.

underdog pick, noted odds
"I am going to be picking Chris Curtis as an underdog here over nasadena mavov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis despite acknowledging that Imavov has the stylistic advantages to frustrate Curtis like Jack Hermansson did. He notes that Imavov is tall, rangy, and faster than Hermansson, but lacks consistency and tends to gas. Zane trusts Curtis's ability to hang around and snatch momentum if Imavov loses a step, and he prefers Curtis's boxing and pocket fighting. He admits it's a bad style matchup but thinks Curtis is the better fighter.

Curtis over 2.0 +105, currently +131; Imavov opened -116, now -146
"I'm gonna pick Curtis here. I think the big the other big thing here is the buckley fight... Curtis is much more capable of taking small swings of momentum and using them to close doors than buckley is."
LOSS vs Kelvin Gastelum
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 70 of 201 34% 80 of 216 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 83 of 188 44% 88 of 195 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 13 of 48 27% 13 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 64 46% 30 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 65 30% 26 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 23 of 56 41% 27 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:55
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 37 of 88 42% 41 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 68 44% 31 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 70 of 201 34% 44 of 164 21 of 30 5 of 7 63 of 193 7 of 8 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 83 of 188 44% 63 of 161 5 of 8 15 of 19 76 of 172 3 of 6 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 13 of 48 27% 8 of 40 1 of 2 4 of 6 13 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 64 46% 20 of 51 0 of 0 10 of 13 30 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 65 30% 11 of 51 9 of 14 0 of 0 18 of 62 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 23 of 56 41% 20 of 51 1 of 2 2 of 3 19 of 44 0 of 2 4 of 10
3 Kelvin Gastelum 37 of 88 42% 25 of 73 11 of 14 1 of 1 32 of 83 5 of 5 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 68 44% 23 of 59 4 of 6 3 of 3 27 of 64 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis and has a moneyline bet on him. He notes that Kelvin Gastelum is a waste of talent with poor work ethic, while Chris Curtis is a clean boxer with solid takedown defense and power. He believes Curtis will win the striking exchanges and defend takedowns. He is confident because Gastelum hasn't shown his best day in years.

moneyline bet
"Chris Curtis is going to be the pick I do have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes both fighters are durable and have power, but he trusts Curtis's momentum over Gastelum's recent skid. He predicts a split decision and mentions the line has flipped to Gastelum as favorite, making Curtis the dog. He is not confident due to potential judging issues.

"I like I like Curtis to win ... I'll take Chris Curtis to win by like a split uh decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody agrees with Paul on Curtis. He highlights Curtis' takedown defense and notes that Gastelum's wrestling hasn't been effective recently. Cody likes Curtis by decision at +240 as his favorite bet on the card. He points out that Curtis doesn't have much jiu-jitsu, so a submission is unlikely, but a decision is probable. Cody also mentions Gastelum's staph infection and dental issues as potential factors.

Curtis by decision at +240; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"Chris Curtis by decision I'll tell you that much"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Chris Curtis. He emphasizes that Curtis is a better counter puncher and that Gastelum is too hittable. Connor also mentions that Curtis has a better chance of landing clean shots that judges will notice, even if they don't hurt Gastelum.

"Yeah, same."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Jacob is locked and loaded on Chris Curtis, calling him a lock. He emphasizes that everyone who engages with Curtis gets knocked out because of his ability to read rhythm and find counter shots. He notes that Gastelum leaves himself open with low hands and gets dropped often. He believes Curtis can knock him out or win a decision.

"I'm locked and loaded on Chris Curtis"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum has been on a tough skid but is only 31 and now training with Fight Ready, known for great game plans. He has underrated wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and his durability should hold up against Curtis's power. Curtis is experienced but was out-gamed by Jack Hermansson's range. I think Gastelum's diversity and Fight Ready's plan lead to a decision win, though ring rust is a concern.

"I think this is probably the most favorable matchup that Calvin gaslim has had during this entire slump maybe with the exception of the Ian heinish fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Curtis, citing his superior volume, cardio, and reach advantage. He notes Curtis has excellent takedown defense and has fought bigger middleweights. Paul criticizes Gastelum's recent low output and believes Curtis will outwork him. He expects a 15-minute standup fight and likes Curtis by decision at plus money. Paul also mentions Curtis' experience sparring with Sean Strickland and his ability to find openings.

Curtis by decision at +240; over 2.5 rounds at -220; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"sign me up for Action Man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to finish Kelvin Gastelum in round three via body shot. He expects a war where both land big shots, but Curtis will dig to the body consistently, wearing Gastelum down. He notes Gastelum's poor shape and good chin, predicting that body shots will be the key. He describes a sequence where Gastelum slows down and Curtis finishes him against the cage.

round three finish, body shot
"I'm gonna say Curtis finishes him in round three"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis because he believes Curtis will land the better, more memorable shots. He notes that Curtis is an accurate and powerful counter puncher, while Gastelum remains hittable with his chin up. Zane also points out that Curtis has been getting decisions lately and that Gastelum's prime started early and he has taken a lot of damage.

"I'm going to pick Chris Curtis because I think he's going to land the better shots."
KO (punches) R2 2:49 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 1 36 of 87 41% 36 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Joaquin Buckley 0 50 of 163 30% 50 of 163 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 19 of 49 38% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joaquin Buckley 0 29 of 91 31% 29 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Curtis 1 17 of 38 44% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Joaquin Buckley 0 21 of 72 29% 21 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 36 of 87 41% 25 of 72 3 of 5 8 of 10 29 of 78 1 of 1 6 of 8
Joaquin Buckley 50 of 163 30% 27 of 134 15 of 20 8 of 9 48 of 159 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 19 of 49 38% 11 of 38 2 of 3 6 of 8 19 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joaquin Buckley 29 of 91 31% 12 of 71 11 of 13 6 of 7 27 of 87 2 of 4 0 of 0
2 Chris Curtis 17 of 38 44% 14 of 34 1 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 29 1 of 1 6 of 8
Joaquin Buckley 21 of 72 29% 15 of 63 4 of 7 2 of 2 21 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joaquin Buckley vs. Chris Curtis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-155), Curtis (+135)

Round 1
The UFC 282 ESPN prelims chose violence to open them up, as middleweight strikers Curtis (29-9, 3-1 UFC) and Buckley (15-5, 5-3 UFC) are sure to throw leather with high intensity for as long as they can. With 27 knockouts combined, referee Jason Herzog and the smelling salts may be needed by the bout’s end if fight fans are lucky. The sluggers that have developed some bad blood before their match do not touch gloves, as they would rather introduce their fists to one another’s faces first. The fighters are tense and not willing to release much of note early, tossing single strikes at one another like head kicks. Curtis splits the guard with a jab, and he sits down on a low kick. Buckley answers with one of his own, and this back-and-forth of similar strikes continues. Buckley jabs to the head and body, and he hops back from a one-two that zips straight at him. Buckley crowds his man with a few short punches, and when Curtis escapes, Buckley whips a low kick that slaps hard on the lead leg. Curtis gets one-two through, and Buckley surges forward in hopes of getting that back after getting stung. Curtis stays light on his feet and escapes, while keeping a high guard to defend against the heavier strikes hurled at him. Buckley mixes his strikes up with a body shot, and he whiffs with the lion’s share of a combination that ends with a glancing head kick. Curtis intercepts an advancing Buckley with an inside thigh kick that skips into the groin, and the fans shower them with boos until realizing it was a foul. Curtis apologizes and Buckley recovers, and they return to throwing single strikes when resuming. Buckley just misses with a head kick, and Curtis starts talking to him. Curtis fires off a jab and a right hand, and Buckley tries to reply with five heavy punches that largely collide with the guard. The jabs from Curtis lead to Buckley pawing at his eye, and Buckley tries to chop down the lead leg. Buckley remains busy but walks into a body kick, and he gets cracked as he strikes. Curtis smiles at him and blocks a pair of hefty uppercuts, and he shells up when Buckley fires off a combo that concludes with a head kick. When Buckley’s punches up top miss, he goes after the body with a salvo. The round ends right as Buckley connects with a handful of body shots.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 2
Curtis is quick to claim the center of the cage, and Buckley leads off with kicks to the body on the outside. Curtis walks Buckley down and jabs several times, eliciting reactions out of his opponent. Curtis walks through the heavy blows to snap the head back with straight punches, and Buckley is throwing everything he has into power shots. Curtis’ guard and head movement largely keep him out of harm, but Buckley crashes the pocket and catches him at the end of a left hook. Curtis looks to play counter, and Buckley beats him to the punch with a combo. Curtis snaps out a left hand, and Buckley strings three punches together before absorbing a low kick. They land alternating hooks at the same time, and Curtis rolls when retreating as Buckley pours on the pressure. Two nasty hooks to the body slam into Curtis’ side, but he catches Buckley leaping at him with a left. Buckley loads up and connects, forcing Curtis into action with a responsive head kick. Buckley chains a long series of punches together off the guard, and he is feeling himself.
Curtis blocks and catches a head kick and unloads a brutal left hand that knocks Buckley clean off his feet, and Buckley might be out when he hits the ground. “New Mansa” snaps back into action, and he throws his legs up and tries to swing off his back, but Curtis is measured and he drills his foe with ground-and-pound. Buckley goes out again, and the punches knock him back conscious once more as Herzog is paying close attention but giving Buckley a great deal of leeway. Knowing the finish is right there for the taking, Curtis hammers the nail with hammerfists, putting Buckley out once and for all.
Although Buckley comes back to seconds later and appears upset with Herzog about the stoppage, he was knocked out two or three times before the finish materialized. Curtis has bounced back from his first UFC defeat in big way, and he is all smiles after the back-and-forth battle.

The Official Result
Chris Curtis def. Joaquin Buckley R2 2:49 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Angelo picks Buckley but is hesitant, noting that Curtis has only fought grapplers in the UFC and knocked them out, while Buckley has fought strikers with mixed success. He acknowledges Curtis's short-notice loss to Hermansson may be excusable. He plans to wait for prop bets rather than betting the moneyline, comparing the matchup to Wonderboy vs Holland where a striker's true level was revealed.

No moneyline bet; waiting for prop bets.
"the pick I think is going to be Buckley at this point and this this is I may change his pick so make sure you watch the updated video"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as a dog, citing Curtis's superior durability and volume. He notes Buckley has been knocked out three times and knocked down often, while Curtis has only been knocked out once in 38 fights. He expects Curtis to find Buckley's chin and knock him out in the second round.

Curtis wins by second round knockout; Curtis is a dog at +135
"I like Chris Curtis to get this done um I like Chris Curtis to eventually find the chin of Joaquin Buckley and and knock this guy out and give him his fourth knockout loss"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody picks Chris Curtis, citing his takedown defense (100% in UFC), striking output, and experience. He notes Buckley's low volume and cardio issues, and that Curtis will double his output. He thinks Curtis' jab and right hand will be key, and that Buckley's power is a threat but Curtis can weather it. He expects a decision win for Curtis.

"I'm all action man Homer and so let's bring it back to the positive of why Chris Curtis wins this fight... takedown defense striking output"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his more varied path to victory. He criticizes Chris Curtis's poor attitude and limited offense outside the pocket. Levi believes Buckley should use movement, kicks, and feints to stay on the outside, and can mix in takedowns to exploit Curtis's historically weak bottom game. He thinks Curtis's only chance is a pocket boxing match, while Buckley can win by striking at range, takedowns, or even a knockout. Levi sees Buckley as the more explosive and versatile fighter.

"Buckley's got more ways to win... I think as long as Buckley uses a lot of movement uses a lot of kicks and doesn't stay stationary"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Lock picks Buckley to get his hand raised, but he wants nothing to do with the fight from a betting or PredictionStrike perspective. He thinks neither guy has a huge ceiling in the UFC, and Buckley's skill set is limited. He notes that Buckley is closer to Curtis in size compared to Curtis's previous fight against Jack Hermansson, but still sees Buckley as a guy who will trade wins and losses without breaking into the top 10.

"I do think Buckley gets his hand raised here but I think he's one of those guys that's going to go out there and continuously trade wins and losses"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Chris Curtis, noting the plus money and that Curtis should be able to pick Buckley apart at range. He thinks Buckley's power is dangerous but Curtis has the boxing and experience. He is confident in Curtis as a dog.

"I'll be picking him but I'm more interested in what you have to say about this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley over Chris Curtis, praising Buckley's underrated striking and athleticism. He notes that Curtis is 35 and relies on counter-wrestling and big shots, but Buckley is elusive and dangerous with head kicks and body kicks. He believes Buckley will out-scrap Curtis over three rounds, possibly winning 30-27 or by TKO, and that Curtis doesn't have the KO power to stop Buckley.

"I'm going with Joaquin Buckley here I think he gets a lot of stick because he was the highlight guy and he never really lived up to that potential but dude he gave nasadena mavov everything he could handle"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo has a slight lean towards Chris Curtis but expresses buyer's remorse after betting on him. He notes Curtis has good boxing and takedown defense, but gassed in his last fight against Rodolfo Vieira and was outstruck. He points out Jack Hermansson went 0 for 8 on takedowns against Sean Strickland but still won rounds on some scorecards, meaning he can strike. He says the pick might change by fight day.

moneyline bet placed
"i'm still going to have a very like very slight lean towards chris here because jack's takedowns are just awful"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis to win by decision. He notes Curtis has shown improved takedown defense (stuffing all 20 of Rodolfo Vieira's attempts). On the feet, Curtis has the striking advantage. If Hermansson can't take him down, Curtis should outpoint him in a competitive decision. He acknowledges Hermansson's ground game is dangerous if he gets takedowns.

Curtis by decision
"give me chris curtis for the win here i'm to go with chris curtis to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody is confident in Chris Curtis, citing his excellent cardio, takedown defense, and boxing. He argues that Hermansson's best volume comes in championship rounds, but this is a three-round fight. Cody notes Hermansson has been knocked out by punchers and dropped by Marvin Vettori, while Curtis has power and volume. He also mentions Curtis' training with Sean Strickland and his ability to stuff takedowns. Cody believes Curtis will keep the fight standing and box Hermansson up.

over 76.5 fantasy score on PrizePicks
"i'm gonna take chris curtis again i actually will and i'm not don't know if action man's going to knock him out or win a decision i couldn't tell you a straight prop"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Daniel Levi leans towards Jack Hermansson, citing his top-level experience and dangerous ground game, particularly his guillotine choke. He acknowledges Chris Curtis's improved takedown defense and boxing, but questions whether Curtis can handle the step up in competition. Levi notes that Hermansson has been in there with the best and has a lot of heart, but also wonders if Hermansson still has the hunger after recent setbacks. He thinks Hermansson can find opportunistic takedowns and use his ground and pound to win.

Mentions that he missed out on Hermansson at +110, implying he would have bet at that price.
"i lean her manson in this fight man i think he can get back on track as long as he's still into this"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Hermansson is too big and strong for Curtis. He will drag the fight to the ground and control him. Curtis defended 20 takedowns against Adolfo Vieira, but Vieira is a jiu-jitsu player, not a wrestler. Hermansson's wrestling is elite. Curtis will realize he should have stayed at 170.

"I'm going to be on her Mansion I'll likely have a decent bet on him as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Paul picks Jack Hermansson, feeling the line is too close and that there may be too much hype on Chris Curtis. He notes Hermansson is a legitimate pounder with great cardio, excellent wrestling, and complete skills. Paul acknowledges Curtis has been a cash printing machine but thinks this step up in competition might be too much. He wants to hear Cody's take before making any action.

"i'm picking her manson i wanted to hear obviously what the curtis whisperer had to say before i made any action on this though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to win by decision. He praises Curtis's grappling defense, as seen against Rodolfo Vieira. Hermansson will have success with takedowns early but will slow down. Curtis will land body shots and knees, pulling away in the last two rounds for a 29-28 decision.

29-28 decision
"i'm gonna go if chris curtis getting this one done in the second and third round 29-28 chris curtis says sir manson slows down"