Career Averages - Ariane Carnelossi
Career Averages - Istela Nunes
Ariane Carnelossi
Istela Nunes
Ariane Carnelossi - Fight History
The host picks Souza confidently, stating that she is a little bit better anywhere the fight takes place outside of muscular ability. He notes that Souza is a better striker and a better grappler than Carnelossi, and expects her to cruise to a comfortable decision, likely 30-27 or 29-28.
AJ believes Ketlen Souza has improved significantly since her prior loss to Carnelossi, with sharper boxing, better pressure, and cage cutting. He views Carnelossi as having stagnated, relying on power Muay Thai but lacking technical growth. AJ expects Souza to win a striking clinic, likely by decision, though a finish is possible.
Angelo picks Ketlen Souza, stating she is the better striker and grappler. He believes Souza will pressure forward, get Carnelossi to overcommit, and then secure a takedown. He notes that Souza's bad offensive takedowns are better than Carnelossi's worst takedown defense, and if it goes to the ground, Souza might get a finish.
Big Brady picks Ketlen Souza to win by decision. He notes that Souza has improved since their first fight and is better everywhere, but he has concerns about her fight IQ after her performance against Bruna Brasil where she clinched for 15 minutes instead of finishing. He sees a potential knockout or submission but leans decision.
Ketlen Souza is in her prime and has a nice jab with aggressive volume. Ariane Carnelossi is not a volume striker and wants takedowns, but Souza's takedown defense should hold. Souza will win a decision, as Carnelossi has been inactive and lost last time out.
Ketlen Souza is picked because she is the better striker with power and can grapple. Ariane Carnelossi has poor takedown defense (22%) and cannot grapple. Souza should win by submission or decision, as she has a clear advantage everywhere.
Souza is a better wrestler and grappler than Carnelossi, who hasn't won a real fight since 2021. Carnelossi's only recent win was by DQ, and she was losing that fight. Souza should control the grappling exchanges and win a decision.
Lucrative James picks Ketlen Souza to win the rematch, citing her physical and skill improvements since their 2019 fight. He notes Souza's better conditioning, improved grappling, and recent performances against higher-level competition. He believes Carnelossi's wins since then are unimpressive and that Souza will avenge her loss via decision.
Souza has improved since their first fight, showing better durability and a slicker striking approach. She can wear on Carnelossi with clinch and grappling, and should be able to take Carnelossi's biggest shots. Souza wins a close decision, though the -285 line is too steep.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talita Alencar | 0 | 60 of 100 | 60% | 79 of 122 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 | 0 | 6:10 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 25 of 76 | 32% | 50 of 106 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talita Alencar | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 26 of 38 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 1 of 17 | 5% | 24 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Talita Alencar | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 23 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 10 of 35 | 28% | 11 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 3 | Talita Alencar | 0 | 22 of 31 | 70% | 30 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:49 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talita Alencar | 60 of 100 | 60% | 34 of 67 | 19 of 23 | 7 of 10 | 31 of 65 | 14 of 15 | 15 of 20 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 25 of 76 | 32% | 10 of 57 | 3 of 5 | 12 of 14 | 25 of 71 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talita Alencar | 18 of 30 | 60% | 9 of 18 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 1 of 17 | 5% | 1 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 14 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Talita Alencar | 20 of 39 | 51% | 10 of 25 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 14 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 10 of 35 | 28% | 2 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Talita Alencar | 22 of 31 | 70% | 15 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 10 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 14 of 24 | 58% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alencar (-250); Carnelossi (+210)
Round 1
After a rousing series of fight cards around the world, the UFC recedes back to the Apex for half of its remaining shows this year. The first of two weekends in a row, the promotion’s headquarters—reportedly with new, revamped internal facilities even including concession stands (that are not open yet)—will play host to UFC Fight Night 263, also known as UFC Vegas 110. For the sixth time in the last eight events, women will kick off the violent festivities. Strawweights take center stage, where a loss will almost certainly save their place on the roster while a defeat does not guarantee another match in the Octagon. Alencar (6-1-1, 2-1 UFC) has reached the final bout of her initial four-fight deal, so this one will matter more than the others. She battles the returning Carnelossi (15-3, 3-2 UFC), who has only competed once in the last three years. The two will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith, who clocks them in as they bump fists.
Carnelossi comes out of her corner loaded for bear, and she bashes Alencar in the face right off the bat. Alencar bounces back, rebounds off the fencing and pushes out with kicks. She rushes forward behind a right hand to set up a clinch with a body lock takedown attempt, and Carnelossi muscles her around to break it up. Carnelossi scores a short strike on the break, and then walks her retreating countrywoman down. “Sorriso” has her guard up in time to block the single kicks soaring her direction, although a one-two down the pipe gets her attention. Carnelossi goes for her own level change, ultimately hitting a 115-pound wall plus the cage behind her in Alencar. Carnelossi grinds on Alencar when a single-leg effort fails, and she smacks Alencar with short but frustrating overhand rights.
Carnelossi staves off a counter trip attempt, and the two jockey for position twirled around in the tie-up. Alencar puts Carnelossi’s back to the fencing, and she knees her in the stomach when bending over for something. Carnelossi turns her about once more and gives her a few knees to think about on the other side of the equation. This continues, and Alencar is warned for grabbing the fence to keep Carnelossi stuck and has her hand slapped away a few times. Alencar ducks down in pursuit of a single-leg takedown, and she gets it for a second or two before Carnelossi pops back to her feet without issue. Carnelossi punches her way out of the clinch and meanders forwards Alencar, swinging her way until they end up clinching once more. Alencar trips Carnelossi to the floor, and Carnelossi uses her upkicks when hitting the mat to keep Alencar from climbing on top of her. Alencar drops to her knees, and Smith warns Carnelossi for what would be illegal upkicks. The horn sounds with Alencar striking from above.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Round 2
Like the previous round, Carnelossi plods directly forward to engage, no glove touch in the works. Carnelossi walks through a body kick to put her hands on her opponent, and a right hand opens a tiny cut on the bridge of Alencar’s nose. Alencar swings, and Carnelossi counters her more effectively. Alencar’s front kick is an effective weapon at keeping her foe at bay, but only for a brief time as Carnelossi tends to charge when struck with that blow. She does just that when drilled with a kick down the middle, racing after Alencar and slugging her in the face. Carnelossi ducks down and nearly takes a knee on the chin, and they proceed to bang it out up close and personally. Alencar spins with a back kick when in close proximity, and Carnelossi’s pressure is getting to her as she cannot get space to recover. Carnelossi connects with a hefty low kick that makes Alencar recoil it awkwardly, and she keeps kicking that spot.
Alencar winds up with a huge right hand while taking shots, and she grabs the back of Carnelossi’s head and drives a knee square into it. Alencar hurls Carnelossi to the floor, and she prevents Carnelossi from standing by snapping down on the back of her neck. Carnelossi still manages to force her way upright, and she remains comfortable in the clinch getting her head right after getting stunned. Carnelossi tries to drag the fight to the floor, and Alencar turns the tables and puts her down on the mat. When Carnelossi looks to get up, Alencar hangs on to a kimura that she uses to attempt to sweep. When not looking for that, she elbows Carnelossi in the side of the dome again and again. Carnelossi drops all the way down to pursue a desperate takedown, and Alencar accepts it as she has her legs laced around Carnelossi’s and looks to take her back. Alencar gets the hooks in and wraps up a rear-naked choke, fastening the short choke under the chin and pulling back. Carnelossi rolls to her side and then stomach, surviving the deep submission and likely being saved by the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Round 3
Carnelossi appears good to go to start the round despite nearly going out in the end of the previous frame, and she asserts pressure. Carnelossi kicks low to open up a right hand, and she ignores a body kick to hunt “Problem Child” down. Alencar sticks out a right hand, and Carnelossi swarms her with a combination counter. Alencar snaps out a left, but her blows are largely one-and-done while Carnelossi’s volume is giving her fits. Alencar puts three punches together to decent effect, and she fakes a level change after it to get Carnelossi to bite. They trade low kicks, and Carnelossi checks the latter and gives her another one back. As Carnelossi fearlessly walks Alencar down kicking her in the midsection, Alencar snatches the limb out of the air and trips Carnelossi to the floor. Carnelossi prevents Alencar from getting into her guard by pitching upkicks aplenty, and she even threatens briefly with an omoplata shoulder lock setup that ultimately puts her in a worse position than when she started.
Alencar lowers herself down into the side control position, where she slips right to north-south position with Carnelossi scrambling all the while. Carnelossi counters with her own single-leg shot, and Alencar steps over her and sets up an inverted triangle choke. Alencar hammers the side with elbows until Carnelossi explodes to get to her knees and push through the takedown try. Alencar shuts her down and elbows her in the side of the head until pulling guard and getting Carnelossi’s back.
With a minute left in the round, Alencar gets the body triangle secure, and she starts fishing for chokes. Alencar slides her right forearm beneath the chin, and she goes palm-to-palm but it is not crushingly tight. Alencar adjusts her grip, torqueing the choke as hard as she can, and Carnelossi lifts her arm up and dramatically taps out.
This marks the first time that “Sorriso” has been submitted since her pro debut in 2014 against Amanda Ribas. The victorious Alencar puts behind her a five-fight decision or draw stretch, and all of her stoppages remain by RNC.
The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Ariane Carnelossi R3 4:36 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Talita Alencar, highlighting her grappling prowess and recent win over Vanessa Demopoulos. He notes Ariane Carnelossi is physically strong but lacks takedown defense and skills. He expects Alencar to get takedowns and control the fight, though he is unsure about spending $9,000 on her in DFS.
Big Brady picks Talita Alencar due to Ariane Carnelossi's terrible takedown defense (14%). He notes Alencar is not the best wrestler but attempts many takedowns and is good on top with solid ground and pound. He also mentions Alencar is a six-time BJJ world champion. The only concern is Alencar's cardio, but he believes Carnelossi will struggle. He predicts a second-round submission.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Carnelossi is very strong but stiff and awkward everywhere. He thinks Alencar's jiu-jitsu will allow her to drag Carnelossi down and control her on the ground, even if her wrestling isn't elite.
Lucrative James picks Talita Alencar, citing her superior wrestling and grappling against Ariane Carnelossi, who has poor takedown defense (14%). He believes Alencar will take Carnelossi down at will and control the fight on the ground. He notes Carnelossi's power and toughness but thinks the skill gap is too large, predicting a decision win for Alencar.
Carnelossi's strength and BJJ black belt should help her stay safe against Alencar, and she will eventually butcher Alencar on the feet to win by TKO. The host is surprised the odds are as wide as they are, implying value on Carnelossi.
The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi despite Talita Alencar being the favorite. He worries that Alencar's grappling may not be enough to get takedowns consistently, and Carnelossi's physicality and strength could neutralize Alencar's shots. He believes Carnelossi will win on damage if the fight stays standing, predicting an upset decision.
Zane picks Alencar because she is a solid jiu-jitsu fighter with good top control, while Carnelossi is stiff, head-hunts, and is easy to take down. He notes that Alencar's wrestling is clumsy but she finds ways to get to good positions. Carnelossi tends to stay on her back when put there.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 1 | 40 of 81 | 49% | 51 of 102 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 46 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 24 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 10 of 33 | 30% | 32 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 1 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:31 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 40 of 81 | 49% | 34 of 73 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 60 | 11 of 13 | 7 of 8 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 16 of 49 | 32% | 13 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 19 of 50 | 38% | 18 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 10 of 33 | 30% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 9 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 21 of 31 | 67% | 16 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 4 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-192), Carnelossi (+160)
Round 1
After over a year off, Venezuelan striker Rodriguez (9-1, 2-1 UFC) will be making her return to the cage hoping to rebound from her first career defeat. She meets Carnelossi (14-3, 2-2 UFC), whose layoff exceeds her own—“Sorriso” has not competed since May 2022. The two strawweights will look to shake off any rust while referee Mark Smith watches on. With plenty of respect for one another, they gladly touch ‘em up before throwing down. After some circling, the first strike comes from Carnelossi in the form of a low kick. Rodriguez plods forward letting her hands go in a short but effective spray, and Carnelossi backs her off with a counter. This same exchange happens again, with Rodriguez wading into combat and landing first but getting struck last. Both women land on the other in their punch flurries, and a little over a minute in and Carnelossi is already showing damage on her nose. Rodriguez changes levels, and Carnelossi shoves her away with her fists flying. Rodriguez sneaks in three punches before darting away to evade the counter, and she does this once more. Carnelossi allows Rodriguez to get to her so that she can counter, but Rodriguez is getting off her own shots. Carnelossi surges into action with a heavy right hand after Rodriguez cuts her open on the left cheek, and Rodriguez stays on her bike to get away from the worst of it. Carnelossi bullrushes her foe, driving Rodriguez back to the cage and stumbling her momentarily when letting her hands go. Rodriguez considers another level change, and she meets a stone wall that analyst Din Thomas remarks looks like Sean Sherk. Rodriguez sells out for a takedown, punching her way into the attempt, and she slings Carnelossi to the mat. When they land, their limbs are tangled in their equipment, and Smith makes sure to prevent any wardrobe malfunctions and lets them go. They proceed to slug it out from this horizontal position, with Carnelossi fearlessly throwing hands off her back and flailing her feet to get Rodriguez off of her. Rodriguez considers backing off for a standup, but she instead races ahead and hammers Carnelossi with ground-and-pound until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
The strawweights bump their fists together before getting back to it. Carnelossi is the one pressing forward, but she is met by a strong right hand and a knee up the middle. Rodriguez looks to capitalize on this by shooting on the hips, and Carnelossi pushes her back. Rodriguez switches to attack with another knee in the belly, and she spins her foe around and pushes her to the wall. Rodriguez drops down for a single-leg takedown, and Carnelossi hops around on her other foot to remain upright. The women trade elbows, and Rodriguez hammers her with a number of knees. Rodriguez pursues another takedown, this time going after a double as she tries to clasp her hands together around the backside. Carnelossi shuts this down and gains a little space, resulting in a brief brawl that allows her to escape. Rodriguez times a perfect front kick that blasts Carnelossi right in the face, and Carnelossi is on rubber legs and backs away. Rodriguez charges her and swings her fists until Carnelossi falls over, and
Rodriguez leaps on top and headbutts Carnelossi as Smith tells them to watch their heads. “Sorriso” tries to defend herself as Rodriguez is pummeling her with strikes, and Rodriguez sits up and smacks Carnelossi with another headbutt.
Smith calls time after the second egregious foul, and the review officials determine it was a clear headbutt. Carnelossi sits up after a couple minutes of recovery, but she is still seeing stars and compromised from both the legal and illegal blows. Carnelossi stands up after about three minutes and shakes her head, and she lowers herself back down on the fence. Carnelossi sits back down, looking upset as she tries to clear her head, and she keeps shaking her head. The doctor assesses her condition once more, and he advises Smith that the fight should not continue. The only question remaining is if the fight is ruled a no contest or a disqualification.
The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Piera Rodriguez R2 3:16 via Disqualification (Headbutts)
Angelo acknowledges Piera Rodríguez is the better striker and grappler, but her fight IQ is questionable. Ariane Carnelossi is all brawn and strength, which could be enough in this division. However, the two-year layoff for Carnelossi and Piera's ability to bomb away and mix in takedowns should be the difference. He expects the fight to go the distance, similar to the Tabatha Ricci vs. Tisha Torres fight.
Cody provides an extensive breakdown: Rodríguez is a front-runner with suspect cardio and low volume, while Carnelossi is physically strong, has good cardio, and can get back up from takedowns. He notes Carnelossi's fight against Lupita Godinez showed she can survive multiple takedowns and still be competitive. Cody believes Carnelossi will outwork Rodríguez and win a decision, making her a great underdog play.
Carnelossi is a tank of a human being returning after over two years off. She has power and explosiveness that should dictate the pace on the feet. However, her takedown defense is a concern, and ring rust is a factor. Rodriguez has decent striking and wrestling but may not be able to control Carnelossi on the mat for long. Expects Carnelossi to batter Rodriguez on the feet and win a decision.
Paul likes Carnelossi as an underdog due to her physical strength and cardio edge. He notes Rodríguez has low volume and tends to fade in later rounds. Carnelossi has shown she can get back up from takedowns and has power in her punches. Paul believes Carnelossi's durability and pace will be too much for Rodríguez.
The MMA Guru picks Piera Rodríguez over Ariane Carnelossi, citing Carnelossi's suspected PED use and tendency to gas out. He notes that Carnelossi has been taken down frequently in past fights, including eight takedowns by Loopy Godinez, and that Rodríguez is good at holding back position. He expects Rodríguez to win via takedowns and control, possibly going the distance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 23 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 46 of 61 | 75% | 130 of 173 | 8 of 8 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 13:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 31 of 41 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:20 | |
| 2 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 23 of 30 | 76% | 49 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:24 | |
| 3 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 17 of 20 | 85% | 50 of 71 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | 9 of 20 | 45% | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 46 of 61 | 75% | 36 of 49 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 19 | 8 of 12 | 27 of 30 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loopy Godinez | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 6 of 11 | 54% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Loopy Godinez | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 23 of 30 | 76% | 18 of 24 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 13 | |
| 3 | Loopy Godinez | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 17 of 20 | 85% | 13 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 12 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Godinez (-170), Carnelossi (+150)
Round 1
In her entire UFC run that began in 2019, Carnelossi (14-2, 2-1 UFC) has competed three times, thanks in part to injury and major surgery on her back. In comparison, “Loopy” Godinez (7-2, 2-2 UFC) debuted for the UFC in 2021, and this is her fifth walk to the Octagon. The strawweights will square off with oversight from outstanding referee Jason Herzog, and there is no interest in a glove touch before they get after it. Carnelossi comes out throwing, and Godinez answers her with an attempt to clinch, but the Brazilian has no interest in doing so. Carnelossi wades into power punches, and Godinez slips them and grabs hold of Carnelossi’s arm to throw her down to the mat. Godinez goes after an odd-angle choke in a wild scramble, and Carnelossi gets back up for one seconds before “Loopy” pulls her back down. Godinez snags on to a guillotine choke, and she lets go to take Carnelossi’s back when Carnelossi is on her knees. Godinez cranks on an unorthodox neck crank without a hook in, and Carnelossi powers through so that she can pursue a single. Godinez controls Carnelossi’s ankle from behind, disallowing “Sorriso” to sneak out the back door and try anything. Carnelossi crawls her way to the fence, and Godinez follows her and elbows her upside the head as she looks to get a hook in. Carnelossi powers back up with sheer muscle, and Godinez controls her all the way back down to the mat impressively. Godinez hangs on to Carnelossi, tripping her out and taking her for a ride with her hands clasped around Carnelossi’s chest. Godinez slings her down, and Godinez sets up a shoulder choke when Carnelossi defends with a guillotine choke. The Brazilian abandons her own guillotine so she does not fall into a Von Preux, and Godinez keeps her foe down on the mat with that arm-triangle. Godinez works Carnelossi over with knees to the body and punches, mixing in the occasional elbow as she gives Carnelossi fits. Carnelossi is stuck with her head pinned between the floor and the wall, and Godinez pounds her fist into Carnelossi’s face again and again. Godinez works the thigh with elbows, and controls Carnelossi to the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Godinez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Godinez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Godinez
Round 2
The Brazilian comes out with a left hook, but she is well off the mark when she swings it as Godinez is already backing off to kick the body. Godinez sneaks in a right hand, and Carnelossi is shocked and gets cracked with another that wobbles her as Carnelossi tries to counter. Godinez drives through with a double, slamming “Sorriso” down to the mat with emphasis, and she immediately begins to hammer Carnelossi with brutal elbows. Carnelossi struggles to keep her wits about her, and she slowly covers up and tries to turn the tables, only for Godinez to pressure her to the wall with Carnelossi on her knees. Godinez blasts Carnelossi in the ribs with a few knees, and Carnelossi gives up her back to turn away from the blows. Godinez happily takes it, and she gets both hooks in and starts fishing for a choke. Carnelossi tugs on the fence with fingers and toes in an effort to get some leverage, and Godinez meets a sweep attempt from the Brazilian to pull Carnelossi away from the cage wall. Godinez grips the toes for a possible toe hold, and Carnelossi yanks her foot free and subsequently begins to eat elbows. Godinez, from half guard, goes after a two-on-one wrist lock to wrench Carnelossi either up for a keylock or down for a kimura – whatever works for her, as she is firmly in the driver’s seat. Carnelossi turns to her knees as she breaks the les around her own waist, and she then falls to her back as Godinez goes after an arm-triangle choke. Godinez crushes down with the arm-triangle choke while in half guard, and she tries to step over to side control while squeezing the neck with all her might. Carnelossi is struggling and uses the “answer the telephone” defense to give herself just a little bit of breathing room. Carnelossi sits up and pushes Godinez’ arms back to sit up to her knees, and Godinez answers by aiming for a guillotine choke. Godinez cannot keep Carnelossi down as the last few seconds are on the clock, and when they stand, Godinez cracks her with a right hand for good measure to end the dominant round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Godinez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Godinez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Godinez
Round 3
The final round opens with an aggressive Carnelossi, and she throws a right hand and walks straight into a double. Godinez tackles Carnelossi straight to the mat, and she lands straight into side control. Carnelossi turns to her knees, and Godinez punches her in the side of the head when moving. Godinez keeps working the Brazilian with left hands as Carnelossi tries desperately to crawl her way to the fence and stand. Godinez hooks Carnelossi’s legs, and Carnelossi rolls through suddenly for a leglock. Godinez defends well and circles around to return to her position that allows her to land ground-and-pound, and she sucks out Carnelossi’s hips to return her to the floor. They trade short punches, as Carnelossi is leaning her back up against the fence while on her seat. Carnelossi bursts her way upright again, and Godinez ties her up in the clinch to knee and uppercut her repeatedly. “Loopy” decides to put on a show, and she lifts her foe completely up in the air and slams Carnelossi down to the mat. Godinez clings on top and hooks Carnelossi’s legs with her own, and she postures up to elbow Carnelossi a few times as Herzog takes a close look at the action. Godinez continues to grind with elbows, and in half guard she is doing some damage with her strikes. Carnelossi turns to sit up and try to reverse the position, but Godinez meets her every step of the way. Carnelossi eventually stands up, and Godinez knees her, punches her and snags a double to plant Carnelossi right back on the ground to make a statement. Godinez ends the fight with some powerful strikes, and she has likely picked up the biggest win of her career while putting on arguably her best performance to date.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Godinez (30-26 Godinez)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Godinez (30-26 Godinez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Godinez (30-26 Godinez)
The Official Result
Lupita Godinez def. Ariane Carnelossi via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)
Angelo picks Loopy Godinez but expresses hesitation, noting that Carnelossi is hard to push around and that Godinez may struggle to get the fight to the ground. He compares the matchup to Carnelossi's previous fights where she won despite losing exchanges. He mentions he may switch his pick after weigh-ins.
Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by decision, but he is leaning and flip-flopped. He thinks the striking is competitive, with Carnelossi having power and volume, but Godinez has better wrestling. Godinez showed good takedowns against Loma Lookboonmee, and Carnelossi has poor takedown defense (25%). Brady believes Godinez can get takedowns and control the fight on top. However, Carnelossi is dangerous and strong, making this a close fight. He edges Godinez but with little confidence.
Cody picks Lupita Godinez, citing her excellent wrestling and technical striking. He notes that Godinez consistently scores multiple takedowns and controls fights. Carnelossi's takedown defense is suspect, and even if she keeps it standing, Godinez has the striking advantage. Cody believes Godinez's wrestling, cardio, and pace will be decisive, and the -170 price is reasonable.
Daniel Levi picks Ariane Carnelossi as a slight underdog, expecting her to pull away down the stretch. He thinks Carnelossi's power and volume will be decisive if she can get back up from takedowns. He is not confident because Godinez may blanket her with wrestling. He does not bet the fight.
The host is very high on Loopy Godinez, calling this his bread and butter spot with a minus 180 favorite in women's MMA. He highlights Godinez's technical wrestling advantage over Carnelossi, who has suspect takedown defense. He expects Godinez to mix in striking to set up takedowns, then grind on top and possibly find a submission. He warns against Godinez striking too much but trusts her boxing if needed. He is considering making this his lock of the night play.
Paul does not make a clear pick. He considered Carnelossi at +200 but the line moved to +150, which scared him off. He notes that Carnelossi's win over Naliang was unimpressive as Naliang gassed. Paul calls it a dogger pass situation and does not express a preference.
The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez, trusting her well-rounded skills and potential. He notes that Godinez beat Loma Lookboonmee, who he considers one of the better strawweights, and that her only UFC loss came when moving up in weight. He criticizes Carnelossi's competition and implies she may be using performance-enhancing drugs. He believes Godinez has good enough grappling and striking to win, and that Carnelossi hasn't impressed him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 62 of 119 | 52% | 98 of 156 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 36 of 108 | 33% | 76 of 158 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 7:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 37 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 18 of 52 | 34% | 34 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 46 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 27 of 55 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 | |
| 3 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 15 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 62 of 119 | 52% | 37 of 88 | 16 of 22 | 9 of 9 | 54 of 109 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 36 of 108 | 33% | 33 of 103 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 100 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 31 of 63 | 49% | 17 of 47 | 10 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 59 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 18 of 52 | 34% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 49 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 18 of 29 | 62% | 12 of 21 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 9 of 30 | 30% | 8 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 25 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ariane Carnelossi | 13 of 27 | 48% | 8 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 9 of 26 | 34% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
There are now 10 fights on this maligned UFC Fight Night 195 card, one that is counterprogrammed against Bellator 268 in a few hours. We begin the event at the lightest division on the roster, when Carnelossi (13-2, 1-1 UFC) and her impressive musculature takes on promotional newcomer and fellow countrywoman Nunes (6-1,1 NC; 0-0 UFC). While Nunes is billed as a 7-1 fighter, the first win on her ledger the UFC is listing took place in muay Thai. The night begins thankfully with no nonsense thanks to referee Keith Peterson, and the two strawweights touch gloves before throwing down. Carnelossi immediately opens up with punch combinations, swarming the newcomer with a barrage of strikes. Nunes defends herself and backs away, but “Sorriso” chases her down and slams her in the face with heavy punches. Carnelossi continues to rage forward, and Nunes deftly slips back to land a leg kick, and she counters Carnelossi repeatedly. The two brawl it out and a few punches from Carnelossi draw blood from the nose of her opponent. Carnelossi pursues a takedown as she gets clipped, and Nunes defends the takedown by clearly grabbing the fence repeatedly. Peterson slaps her hand away several times and even grabs hold of it briefly to make her leg go, but she goes right back to grabbing it to stay upright. Peterson allowed a little nonsense in that situation there. Although Carnelossi is finally able to get her down her efforts do not reward her for long as Nunes springs right back up and gains separation. Carnelossi is not going to let her off the hook, as she blitzes towards her opponent with winging punches. She ends up clinching up again when considering a takedown, but the newcomer remains upright but gets jammed into the wire. Carnelossi keeps heavy chest pressure to grind Nunes into the wall, landing a few short shots but otherwise clinging on for dear life. Nunes looks to set up a Thai clinch with her back to the fence, getting off a couple knees and strikes before pushing off with a minute left in the round. Nunes starts spamming front kicks to the body, and they engage in a brief but nasty slugfest, landing flush on one another. Nunes takes a step back, scores a solid one-two and evades the counters. Carnelossi’s strikes are wilder while Nunes tries to compose herself, but defense is at a premium as they both land at a high clip. They tag one another on the chin with powerful punches, and right at the bell, Carnelossi lands flush and has to apologize because it might be after the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nunes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nunes
Round 2
The strawweights pick right up where they left off, throwing hammers. Nunes strings a quartet of punches together, and Carnelossi answers with a vengeance throwing looping hooks and clubbing Nunes in the face. Carnelossi’s headhunting approach does allow Nunes to counter her, but the sheer forward momentum of Carnelossi pushes Nunes into the wire. Carnelossi pursues a takedown, and once more Nunes grabs the fence to keep her balance. Peterson sees it but does not say anything, and Nunes walks back up to her feet. Carnelossi embraces the grind up against the wall, with Nunes attempting to frame off and land strikes up the middle as Carnelossi remains pressed tightly to her. Carnelossi ducks down for a single leg takedown, and Nunes looks for a power guillotine on the way down to the mat but bails on it when her backside hits the canvas. Carnelossi keeps her foe’s legs trapped beneath her leg triangle, but Nunes slithers one out and then the other before making her way upright. Nunes stands, and she knees Carnelossi on the chin once, but “Sorriso” does not register the blow as she hangs on with everything she has. Nunes stays busy with her back trapped, punching to the side occasionally, and she sneaks out the side to break free and just miss with a head kick. Nunes pops Carnelossi with a few punches as she backpedals, with the shorter Carnelossi crowding her and never giving her space to breathe. Nunes lets loose with a body kick, and this draws a sharp exhale from her opponent, with the latter appearing to slow. Nunes chains punches into body kicks, and she clips Carnelossi with a right hand before Carnelossi barrels towards her and slams her into the ground. Carnelossi manages to score a few left hands when Nunes is seated against the fencing, and Nunes appears flustered as she cannot get up thanks to Carnelossi’s position on top. Nunes powers back to her feet, but she does not get free before the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Round 3
Nunes begins the round by circling away to escape the power punches from her marauding opponent. Carnelossi attacks without faltering, throwing big punches and connecting more often than not. Nunes sticks and moves, but she cannot evade every one of the hooks coming her way. Nunes pierces the midsection with a few kicks, and she ducks out of the way as Carnelossi charges at her. They both just miss with single power strikes, and Nunes gets off a right hand only to get smacked with a counter that knocks her back into the wall. Carnelossi uses this momentum to go after a single, and Nunes grabs the fence again to try to pull her way up as Peterson slaps at her hand. When Nunes looks to scramble, Carnelossi climbs on to a three-quarter mount before getting a hook in and partially taking Nunes’ back.
Carnelossi hunts for a choke, and she snakes an arm beneath the throat. “Sorriso” senses that this is her moment to strike, and she snags the grip with her other arm to lock the rear-naked choke in completely.
The forearm under the chin, Nunes looks around, fights the grip for a second and then surrenders. The submission win is now just the second of Carnelossi’s career, who lands her first since a keylock in 2016.
The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Istela Nunes R3 2:57 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Nunes as an underdog but is hesitant due to her three-year layoff and USADA suspension. He notes Nunes is the more technical striker with speed and versatility, while Carnelossi is aggressive and strong but sloppy. He worries about Nunes' timing after the layoff but believes if she finds a rhythm, she will out-strike Carnelossi. He does not bet the moneyline but considers prop bets like plus 3.5 points or win inside distance/decision no action.
Big Brady picks Istela Nunes as a dog, citing her Muay Thai background and technical striking advantage. He notes Carnelossi is hittable with poor striking defense, but acknowledges Nunes has a three-year layoff and questions about her ground game. He is hesitant to bet due to the unknowns, but picks Nunes by decision.
Cody leans toward Carnelossi, noting her strength and physicality. He mentions that Nunes has fought only once in three years due to contract issues with ONE Championship, making her ring rust a concern. He acknowledges Carnelossi's reach disadvantage but thinks her tank-like build and cardio can carry her.
Daniel picks Carnelossi due to her UFC experience and power, comparing her style to Jessica Andrade. He notes that Carnelossi has one-hitter-quitter power that can trouble strawweights, and she rebounded well after a cut stoppage loss. He acknowledges Istela Nunes is scrappy and has finishes, but the USADA suspension and debut questions make him lean toward Carnelossi.
Carnelossi is a forward-pressure brawler who moves forward and throws big bombs, similar to a female John Lineker. Nunes has a long layoff and USADA suspension, making her a question mark. Carnelossi by decision is the play because Nunes is durable and likely to eat shots for 15 minutes.
Paul does not make a clear pick, admitting he is not familiar with Nunes and needs to study the fight more. He provides background on both fighters but does not state a preference.
The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi due to her superior experience and competition level. He highlights her 'man arms' and physical strength, as well as her proven ground game and stand-up, including a body kick KO. He predicts a ground-and-pound TKO in the second round, noting Carnelossi's cardio and ability to finish late.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 36 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 2 | 2:48 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 24 of 32 | 75% | 91 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 3 | 2:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 26 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 2 | 2:25 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 65 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 1:55 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 10 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 26 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 19 of 27 | 70% | 13 of 21 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 3 |
| Liang Na | 24 of 32 | 75% | 23 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 13 of 19 | 68% | 9 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 |
| Liang Na | 16 of 20 | 80% | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 10 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Liang Na | 8 of 12 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
This historic night topped off by a title tripleheader will begin in the lightest division in the company, as Carnelossi (12-2, 0-1 UFC) aims for her first UFC win against the debuting “Dragon Girl” Liang (15-4, 0-0 UFC). Whether Liang holds 13 wins or 15 on her ledger may be of some dispute, but she does bring a 100 percent finish rate into this contest, and referee James Folsom may have his work cut out for him early. There is no touch of gloves as the two fighters would prefer introduce one another with their fists, and with a huge pop from the crowd – remember, we are in Jacksonville, Fla., with a packed house -- we are now underway! The two women come out like a house on fire, going berserk with a wild striking flurry. Both women tag the other, and Liang is the one who gets the advantage of the position as she powers through and bullies the Brazilian to her canvas. Liang steps over to secure an arm-triangle choke as she sits in half guard, and Carnelossi kicks off and reverses the position. Liang drags her back down, but “Sorriso” powers up to her feet and tags Liang with a right hand. “Dragon Girl” does not let her off the hook, charging into a takedown attempt as she furiously throws hands. The strikes do enough to keep Carnelossi busy defending, so that Liang can hit a body lock takedown and throw the Brazilian on the canvas again. Carnelossi keeps her guard closed tight, and Liang lifts her up and slams her down hard. Carnelossi opens up and throws her legs up for an armbar, and although she cannot land it, she is able to sweep Liang and put her on her back. Liang threatens with an armbar of her own, and Carnelossi shrugs it off to start raining down strikes from on top. Liang catches an arm when Carnelossi is hammering her with shots, and she locks up an armbar. Carnelossi muscles her way through to break the grip, and Liang is able to turn her over and put the Brazilian on her back. Carnelossi rolls to her knees as she grabs a leg on Liang, and through sheer force of will, she lifts Liang in the air and slams her down. Liang rolls to her knees and gets clubbed in the side of the head, and Carnelossi circles around to take her back. Carnelossi attempts a rear-naked choke, but Liang wildly scrambles and bursts to her feet. Liang does not stay upright for long, as she nails Carnelossi with punches from on top. Carnelossi snags a triangle choke from her back, and she uses it to mount and put Liang on her back. Carnelossi lands serious strikes from above, and she clubs Liang repeatedly until the bell sounds. Liang survives, but she is extremely fatigued just five minutes in.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Round 2
The pace is nowhere near as insane to start off the second frame, as Liang lands a few strikes from a distance. When Carnelossi counters, Liang flips her foot up and slaps Carnelossi in the face. Carnelossi grabs hold of her foe and looks to take the fight down, but Liang is able to put her down. Carnelossi keeps a hook in and is able to retain back control, and she takes the back and hunts for a choke. Liang twists and turns to break the grip, but she falls to her back as Carnelossi climbs into guard and starts with hammerfists.
Carnelossi keeps smashing her growingly exhausted adversary with a barrage of hammerfists, and before long, Folsom intervenes as Liang is no longer able to intelligently defend herself.
Although the stoppage might seem premature to some, the defeated Liang is gasping for air and completely thrashed after that torrid affair. If this performance is any indication, we will be in for quite a night.
The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Na Liang R2 1:28 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady picks Carnelossi to win by second-round KO. He notes Carnelossi's takedown defense is strong and she is aggressive, while Liang Na is one-dimensional, always going for takedowns and gassing out if she doesn't get a quick submission. He expects Carnelossi to stuff takedowns and eventually land a knockout after Liang Na tires.
Cody picks Carnelossi, noting her strength and experience against tougher competition. He thinks Liang's grappling attempts will be neutralized by Carnelossi's physicality. He expects Carnelossi to win by decision or TKO.
Daniel picks Ariane Carnelossi because she is a powerful striker who can bully Liang Na on the feet. He notes that Liang Na is a one-dimensional grappler who sells out for submissions, and Carnelossi's brown belt should help her avoid getting caught. He expects Carnelossi to keep the fight standing and possibly get a finish.
I'm picking Liang Na with very little confidence. I think she'll get her grappling game going and possibly pull off a submission in the second or third round. Carnelossi is a brawler like John Lineker, swinging bombs, but Liang has never been knocked out and has been improving at the UFC Performance Institute. Carnelossi's takedown defense and submission game are questionable, so Liang's grappling could be the difference.
Paul picks Carnelossi, citing her physical strength and power. He notes Liang's weak competition and struggles against stronger opponents. He thinks Carnelossi will keep the fight standing and use her strength to overpower Liang. He expects Carnelossi to win by KO or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi over Liang Na. He notes that Carnelossi has known about the matchup longer and is more proven, having kept up with Angela Hill before a cut stoppage. He thinks Liang Na is young and has potential but is taking the fight on short notice and has losses to lesser competition. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Carnelossi.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 0 | 72 of 186 | 38% | 83 of 197 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 92 of 184 | 50% | 93 of 185 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 0 | 28 of 69 | 40% | 32 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 37 of 68 | 54% | 37 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 0 | 31 of 76 | 40% | 36 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 39 of 85 | 45% | 39 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 0 | 13 of 41 | 31% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 17 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 72 of 186 | 38% | 36 of 137 | 15 of 26 | 21 of 23 | 57 of 156 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 92 of 184 | 50% | 60 of 137 | 32 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 57 of 139 | 35 of 45 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 28 of 69 | 40% | 13 of 47 | 8 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 49 | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 37 of 68 | 54% | 22 of 47 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 46 | 20 of 22 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 31 of 76 | 40% | 14 of 54 | 5 of 9 | 12 of 13 | 28 of 69 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 39 of 85 | 45% | 24 of 64 | 15 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 68 | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 13 of 41 | 31% | 9 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 16 of 31 | 51% | 14 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 25 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
We continue the theme of a UFC veteran welcoming a debutant to the Octagon as Hill (9-7, 4-7 UFC) faces the surging Carnelossi (12-1, 0-0 UFC) in the strawweight division. Our referee is Fernando Salas Navarro. Carnelossi advances immediately, and gets clipped a few times on the way in by Hill. The Brazilian comes in to clinch, and Hill reverses position while landing several solid knees to the body. They break, but not before Hill cracks her opponent with a sharp right elbow. Carnelossi charges forward again, but Hill is ready on the counter. Carnelossi drops in for a single leg takedown, but Hill defends it well and separates. The Brazilian keeps the pressure coming heavy, walking Hill down and backing her against the fence. Hill circles away, and lands a right hand, but Carnelossi eats it and walks through. A two-punch combination gets through from Hill, and as her corner calls for specific strikes, Hill complies and scores every one. Hill drops in a few hard knees in the clinch, and in the exchange Carnelossi begins to bleed from her forehead. As Carnelossi pushes in, Hill brings up a knee that catches the Brazilian on the chin, but Carnelossi is unfazed. Hill steps in and lands another knee, while avoiding the counter strikes, and then lifts one more up for good measure. Carnelossi slaps in a hard leg kick, and the two women trade hands standing in front of each other. Hill catches Carnelossi with an uppercut, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 2
Carnelossi opens up with a leg kick to begin the round, and seeing its success, she sinks one more. Hill swings with a left-right, and as Carnelossi pushes in, Hill is ready to respond with short knees. As they clinch, again Hill takes the advantage by scoring an elbow on the break. The Brazilian scores a few more leg kicks, and Hill switches stances briefly, and when she does, Carnelossi tags her. Hill wears it well, and circles away while picking her shots. Hill prepares to counter any of Carnelossi's offense with a check knee, and "Sorriso" cracks Hill with a loud body kick. The two trade leather, and some swelling begins to form on The Brazilian's forehead. Hill puts together a few punches, but Carnelossi throws hard and lands on Hill's chin. Carnelossi successfully gets off another low kick, and then while coming forward lands a right over the top. Hill tries for a superman punch, but Carnelossi is ready and throws another leg kick that makes Hill hop around for a second. Hill steps in for an elbow, but Carnelossi clips her with a left hand. The American leads with a knee, and Carnelossi is content to chase her down while loading up on her right hand. Clinched up once more, Hill lands several more knees to the body, and as time expires she leaps in the air and kicks Carnelossi in the midsection.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 3
Carnelossi charges forward to begin the final round, and Hill counters her with a right hand and left knee. The Brazilian stalks down Hill, and chains together a several-punch combination but takes a few knees to the body for her trouble. Hill waits for Carnelossi to come in, and times a powerful right elbow that Carnelossi shrugs off. Hill digs with a left to the body, and Carnelossi tags her with a few punches before clinching up. Hill spins out and slices the Brazilian with a huge elbow that splits her forehead open. The cut, which is placed directly above Carnelossi's left eyebrow and is about an inch wide, immediately begins pouring blood. Navarro calls in the doctor, who remarks the cut is too big and calls it, so the fight is over. Hill records the TKO victory, earning her first stoppage win inside the Octagon.
The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Ariane Carnelossi R3 1:56 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)?
Istela Nunes - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loma Lookboonmee | 0 | 32 of 76 | 42% | 111 of 170 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 4:34 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 36 of 62 | 58% | 51 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loma Lookboonmee | 0 | 15 of 47 | 31% | 26 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 | |
| 2 | Loma Lookboonmee | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 23 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:34 | |
| 3 | Loma Lookboonmee | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 62 of 74 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loma Lookboonmee | 32 of 76 | 42% | 12 of 41 | 13 of 25 | 7 of 10 | 28 of 70 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 2 |
| Istela Nunes | 36 of 62 | 58% | 7 of 26 | 11 of 13 | 18 of 23 | 33 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loma Lookboonmee | 15 of 47 | 31% | 3 of 23 | 6 of 15 | 6 of 9 | 15 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 22 of 37 | 59% | 2 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 20 | 21 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Loma Lookboonmee | 10 of 16 | 62% | 6 of 9 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 7 of 14 | 50% | 1 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Loma Lookboonmee | 7 of 13 | 53% | 3 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 2 |
| Istela Nunes | 7 of 11 | 63% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lookboonmee (-590), Nunes (+390)
Round 1
One more matchup on the card will play out in the 115-pound category, and it comes between Thai striker Suphisara (9-3, 6-2 UFC)—who will be referred to as “Loma Lookboonmee,” or just Lookboonmee, going forward—and Brazilian Nunes (6-5, 1 NC; 0-4 UFC), a muay thai aficionado in her own right. Referee Chris Tognoni signals the start of the match, and the women answer his call by touching gloves first. Lookboonmee leads off with a kick that slaps under the armpit, and when Nunes returns fire, Lookboonmee is ready to chuck one more kick at her. Lookboonmee chips at the lead leg, staying able to bounce back and forth to slide in and out of range. Nunes kicks at her, and Lookboonmee jams her in the gut with a kick. Lookboonmee pushes off the chest with the ball of her foot, and continues to probe with kicks until she wraps one up around the neck. Nunes comes back firing, but the Thai is able to out-speed her 90 seconds into the match. While Nunes is keeping it honest and trying to mirror Lookboonmee’s activity, she looks for power as she sits down on a right hand that the Thai just dodges. Lookboonmee pushes off, and her finger may or may not have scraped the eye. The replay called by Tognoni is not clear, so they get back to fighting. They proceed to trade kicks one after the other, strike totals fairly close with Lookboonmee likely having the edge. She scores kicks from both legs, and her strikes are taking Nunes’ fists almost entirely out of the equation. The Brazilian whiffs on a big right hand, and they crash together in an exchange. Nunes kicks low and Lookboonmee belts the body a few times with her shin to audible effective. A third is even lower, and she puts out a one-two to further stick it to her opponent. Lookboonmee catches a kick and looks for a takedown, and Nunes easily pushes her over and climbs into top position. The Thai looks for a sweep when stuck on her back, as Nunes is more interested in controlling for the moment. Lookboonmee is warning for striking the back of the head, and she pushes the Brazilian off of her. Judges might have their hands full with that round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee
Round 2
The strawweights clap hands to re-engage, and they stand right in kickboxing range and let their hands and feet go. Lookboonmee strikes first, last and heavier, but Nunes gets off her own shots. The second and third of a trio of front kicks from Nunes push Lookboonmee away each time Lookboonmee advances. The Thai hammers a low kick and ducks down when Nunes swings at her, standing up as the top of her head bangs into Nunes’ chin with no warning or protest. Nunes tries to wrap her opponent up and leverage her down, and the result is a prolonged clinch. Nunes grabs the cage wall several times, and Tognoni reaches around repeatedly to slap Nunes’ hand. If you ain’t cheatin’, you ain’t tryin. The successful Dundasso allows Nunes to suddenly surprise her adversary by dropping for a heel hook. Lookboonmee busts her in the chops with one right hand to get out of the submission, and Nunes adjusts and shifts the limb to the other side for an inverted heel hook setup. Lookboonmee stays calm as a cucumber while in this ankle lock-type position, as Nunes does not have the right angle or leverage to complete it. Nunes squeezes hard on the foot, and Lookboonmee stacks her up and places herself in the lion’s mouth as Nunes sits up to hunt for a kneebar. Nunes chains the kneebar to a heel hook, and the Thai sits up and stands. Nunes keeps a grip on the ankle, and Lookboonmee punches her a few times before the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee
Round 3
The ladies bump fists to get going, and they get back to action with striking. It does not take Nunes long to try to take the fight down, and eventually in search of what would be her first career submission. The Thai looks to counter Nunes, and she hits a trip to put Nunes on her back. The action largely stalls out when the two women go horizontal, as it is not where they normally compete. Nunes keeps tightly wrapped around Lookboonmee’s shoulder, and Tognoni asks for more activity. When inaction persists, Tognoni stands them up. They proceed to rush at one another and get up close with knees until Lookboonmee completes a throw to dump the Brazilian to her back again. Lookboonmee steps over to hold on from half guard and flatten Nunes on her side. Nunes hooks her toes in the fence to try to improve her position, and Tognoni slaps her toes. Lookboonmee, meanwhile, jams down a number of left hands and elbows to stay busier than the last time she was on top. With 10 seconds to spare, Nunes explodes to her feet, and she hunts for a takedown that is not completed before the conclusion of the match.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee (30-27 Lookboonmee)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee (30-27 Lookboonmee)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lookboonmee (30-27 Lookboonmee)
The Official Result
Loma Lookboonmee def. Istela Nunes via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo highlights Loma's evolution from a pure striker to a mixed martial artist with improved takedowns and effective grappling. He notes that Loma has out-wrestled opponents like Sam Hughes and has nasty striking and great speed. He believes Loma will out-grapple and out-strike Istela Nunes, who is on a four-fight losing streak and has poor grappling. Angelo calls Loma 'as close to a short thing as you're going to get' in women's MMA.
Big Brady is confident in Loma Lookboonmee, citing Istela Nunes's long layoff, four-fight losing streak, and questionable ground game. He notes Nunes has solid striking early but fades, and her takedown defense is poor. He expects Lookboonmee to mix in takedowns and eventually submit Nunes in the second or third round.
Lookboonmee is coming off a long layoff but her Muay Thai style should wear down Nunes' gas tank issues. She is expected to finish the fight in the second or third round. The pick is based on stylistic advantage and Nunes' known cardio problems.
The Guru is high on Loma Lookboonmee, praising her technique on the feet and Muay Thai skills. He believes she has improved her takedown defense during her hiatus and will dominate Istela Nunes in the clinch and at range. He dismisses Nunes as having a poor record and lacking the skills to compete.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktoriia Dudakova | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriia Dudakova | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktoriia Dudakova | 3 of 11 | 27% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Istela Nunes | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriia Dudakova | 3 of 11 | 27% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Istela Nunes | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very high on Viktoriya Dudakova, calling her a well-rounded fighter who can strike with Nunes and wrestle if needed. He notes her clean and powerful striking, slick BJJ, and veteran composure. He thinks even at minus 250, she seems like a discount and could be a parlay piece. He compares her favorably to Ivana Petrovic, who was a bust, and believes Dudakova is the real deal.
Big Brady picks Viktoriya Dudakova, expecting her to survive Nunes' early power and then take over as Nunes' poor cardio becomes a factor. He notes Nunes is very good in the first round but fades badly. Dudakova is a grappler who will look for takedowns and submissions. He predicts a late submission in the second round, as Nunes goes 0-4 in the UFC.
Cody picks Dudakova, citing her cardio and wrestling advantages. He notes Nunes is 0-3 in the UFC due to poor cardio and takedown defense. He thinks Dudakova can survive early pressure and take over as Nunes fades. He suggests a live bet after the first round might be better value, but pre-fight he goes with Dudakova.
James does not offer a clear pick for this fight. He mentions that he doesn't know much about the fighters and defers to his co-host Liam's analysis. He does not express a strong opinion.
The host expects Dudakova to survive Nunes' early onslaught, clinch up, slow the fight down, and take over in the second and third rounds. He suggests a round three or decision prop, noting that Nunes fades after the first round. He also mentions a possible live bet on Dudakova after round one.
Paul picks Dudakova, citing her wrestling advantage and Nunes' poor defensive wrestling and cardio. He notes Nunes fades after 7.5 minutes and Dudakova can survive early shots and secure takedowns as Nunes tires. He mentions Dudakova's contender series win as a +250 underdog and thinks her path to victory is consistent wrestling. He considers the by decision prop at +175.
The MMA Guru picks Viktoriya Dudakova over Istela Nunes, acknowledging Nunes's hunger but favoring Dudakova's youth, undefeated record, and well-roundedness. He notes Dudakova's Contender Series win despite an injury, and her opponent's subsequent success, while criticizing Nunes's losses to Ariane Carnelossi and Sam Hughes. He predicts a decision win for Dudakova.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yazmin Jauregui | 2 | 67 of 154 | 43% | 103 of 200 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
| Istela Nunes | 1 | 36 of 60 | 60% | 39 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yazmin Jauregui | 0 | 27 of 86 | 31% | 27 of 86 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Istela Nunes | 1 | 24 of 40 | 60% | 25 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Yazmin Jauregui | 2 | 40 of 68 | 58% | 76 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yazmin Jauregui | 67 of 154 | 43% | 54 of 135 | 6 of 11 | 7 of 8 | 38 of 109 | 7 of 12 | 22 of 33 |
| Istela Nunes | 36 of 60 | 60% | 20 of 41 | 12 of 14 | 4 of 5 | 28 of 50 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yazmin Jauregui | 27 of 86 | 31% | 18 of 72 | 4 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 25 of 82 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 24 of 40 | 60% | 13 of 29 | 7 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yazmin Jauregui | 40 of 68 | 58% | 36 of 63 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 27 | 5 of 8 | 22 of 33 |
| Istela Nunes | 12 of 20 | 60% | 7 of 12 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 2 |
Angelo picks Yazmin Jauregui but is hesitant, noting that Istela Nunes is a legitimate professional kickboxer with impressive speed and versatility. He believes if Nunes has full three-round cardio, she should be the better overall striker. However, he leans on Jauregui because Nunes gassed in her last fight against Sam Hughes. He calls the odds 'absolute insanity' and expects a mostly striking matchup.
Big Brady leans towards Jauregui due to her youth (23 years old) and cardio advantage, expecting Nunes to slow down in the later rounds. He notes that Jauregui is a striker and unlikely to exploit Nunes' takedown defense weakness. He predicts a competitive fight early but Jauregui taking over in the second and third rounds to win a decision.
Cody picks Jauregui but is tempted by Nunes as a dog. He notes Nunes' power and counter-striking, but thinks her cardio will fade. He suggests live betting Nunes after round 1.
Connor picks Yazmin Jauregui, agreeing that Nunes fades when pressured and that Jauregui's technical punching and pocket dedication will win out over multiple rounds. He notes that Nunes has a history of crumbling once her confidence is dented.
Daniel Levi picks Jauregui, citing her high output, takedown defense, and heart. He notes Nunes' pacing issues and believes Jauregui's youth and pressure will carry her. He is not betting at the price but is confident in the pick.
The host picks Jauregui to win by third-round TKO. He thinks Nunes will start strong but fade due to poor cardio, allowing Jauregui to take over and finish. He is wary of the minus 300 chalk but believes Jauregui is a decent enough prospect to survive early and finish late. He notes that Nunes is likely fighting for her UFC spot.
Paul picks Jauregui but is puzzled by the price. He notes her potential and Nunes' cardio issues. He thinks Jauregui can win by decision or late finish if she mixes in takedowns.
The MMA Guru picks Yazmin Jauregui because she lived up to her hype in the UFC, showing rare talent in the women's division. He notes Istela Nunes has lost her last two fights and is under pressure at 30 years old. He predicts Jauregui will win by decision, citing her youth (23) and ability to overcome octagon jitters.
Zane picks Yazmin Jauregui, citing her consistent boxing, tight defense, and ability to exit exchanges with a left hook. He notes that Nunes is a sharp striker early but fades when pressured, and Jauregui's counter punching will be a problem for Nunes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 89 of 228 | 39% | 90 of 229 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 76 of 182 | 41% | 151 of 257 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Hughes | 0 | 40 of 92 | 43% | 40 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 15 of 48 | 31% | 15 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sam Hughes | 0 | 37 of 98 | 37% | 37 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 31 of 76 | 40% | 60 of 105 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | Sam Hughes | 0 | 12 of 38 | 31% | 13 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 30 of 58 | 51% | 76 of 104 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Hughes | 89 of 228 | 39% | 52 of 173 | 26 of 44 | 11 of 11 | 83 of 220 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 |
| Istela Nunes | 76 of 182 | 41% | 67 of 167 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 59 of 156 | 4 of 7 | 13 of 19 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Hughes | 40 of 92 | 43% | 20 of 65 | 14 of 21 | 6 of 6 | 39 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 15 of 48 | 31% | 14 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sam Hughes | 37 of 98 | 37% | 26 of 78 | 9 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 35 of 95 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 31 of 76 | 40% | 25 of 67 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 73 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sam Hughes | 12 of 38 | 31% | 6 of 30 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Istela Nunes | 30 of 58 | 51% | 28 of 53 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 13 of 19 |
Angelo picks Istela Nunes, expecting a three-round decision win. He notes that Nunes has cleaner striking with speed and power, while Sam Hughes is hittable and has not taken anyone down in the UFC. He references Nunes's last fight where she won striking exchanges but lost due to takedowns, but believes Hughes cannot take her down.
Big Brady picks Istela Nunes to win by decision. He notes Nunes has good striking and improved takedown defense, while Hughes is 0-3 in the UFC with poor striking defense (49%) and no takedowns landed. He expects the fight to stay standing, where Nunes will outclass Hughes. He calls it a winnable fight for Nunes but says he doesn't overly want anything to do with it.
Cody picks Nunes, noting her striking advantage and Hughes' lack of finishing ability. He thinks Nunes can win on the feet and avoid takedowns. He calls it a good spot for Nunes.
Daniel Levi leans Istela Nunes based on aggression and forward pressure, noting Hughes is hesitant and seems to lack confidence. He acknowledges Nunes's win over Karnilosi may be overrated because Karnilosi blocks punches with her face, but believes Nunes's willingness to engage will sway judges. He is not willing to lay -225 but picks Nunes to win.
Paul picks Nunes, citing her striking and physicality. He notes Hughes' poor performances and thinks Nunes can piece her up. He acknowledges cardio concerns but believes Nunes can win the first two rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Istela Nunes, citing her strong striking performance against Ariane Carnelossi, who he notes was on steroids. He believes Nunes has a reach advantage and will outclass Sam Hughes on the feet, winning a 30-27 unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 62 of 119 | 52% | 98 of 156 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 36 of 108 | 33% | 76 of 158 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 7:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 37 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 18 of 52 | 34% | 34 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 46 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 27 of 55 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 | |
| 3 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 15 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 62 of 119 | 52% | 37 of 88 | 16 of 22 | 9 of 9 | 54 of 109 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 36 of 108 | 33% | 33 of 103 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 100 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 31 of 63 | 49% | 17 of 47 | 10 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 59 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 18 of 52 | 34% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 49 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 18 of 29 | 62% | 12 of 21 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 9 of 30 | 30% | 8 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 25 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ariane Carnelossi | 13 of 27 | 48% | 8 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 9 of 26 | 34% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
There are now 10 fights on this maligned UFC Fight Night 195 card, one that is counterprogrammed against Bellator 268 in a few hours. We begin the event at the lightest division on the roster, when Carnelossi (13-2, 1-1 UFC) and her impressive musculature takes on promotional newcomer and fellow countrywoman Nunes (6-1,1 NC; 0-0 UFC). While Nunes is billed as a 7-1 fighter, the first win on her ledger the UFC is listing took place in muay Thai. The night begins thankfully with no nonsense thanks to referee Keith Peterson, and the two strawweights touch gloves before throwing down. Carnelossi immediately opens up with punch combinations, swarming the newcomer with a barrage of strikes. Nunes defends herself and backs away, but “Sorriso” chases her down and slams her in the face with heavy punches. Carnelossi continues to rage forward, and Nunes deftly slips back to land a leg kick, and she counters Carnelossi repeatedly. The two brawl it out and a few punches from Carnelossi draw blood from the nose of her opponent. Carnelossi pursues a takedown as she gets clipped, and Nunes defends the takedown by clearly grabbing the fence repeatedly. Peterson slaps her hand away several times and even grabs hold of it briefly to make her leg go, but she goes right back to grabbing it to stay upright. Peterson allowed a little nonsense in that situation there. Although Carnelossi is finally able to get her down her efforts do not reward her for long as Nunes springs right back up and gains separation. Carnelossi is not going to let her off the hook, as she blitzes towards her opponent with winging punches. She ends up clinching up again when considering a takedown, but the newcomer remains upright but gets jammed into the wire. Carnelossi keeps heavy chest pressure to grind Nunes into the wall, landing a few short shots but otherwise clinging on for dear life. Nunes looks to set up a Thai clinch with her back to the fence, getting off a couple knees and strikes before pushing off with a minute left in the round. Nunes starts spamming front kicks to the body, and they engage in a brief but nasty slugfest, landing flush on one another. Nunes takes a step back, scores a solid one-two and evades the counters. Carnelossi’s strikes are wilder while Nunes tries to compose herself, but defense is at a premium as they both land at a high clip. They tag one another on the chin with powerful punches, and right at the bell, Carnelossi lands flush and has to apologize because it might be after the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nunes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nunes
Round 2
The strawweights pick right up where they left off, throwing hammers. Nunes strings a quartet of punches together, and Carnelossi answers with a vengeance throwing looping hooks and clubbing Nunes in the face. Carnelossi’s headhunting approach does allow Nunes to counter her, but the sheer forward momentum of Carnelossi pushes Nunes into the wire. Carnelossi pursues a takedown, and once more Nunes grabs the fence to keep her balance. Peterson sees it but does not say anything, and Nunes walks back up to her feet. Carnelossi embraces the grind up against the wall, with Nunes attempting to frame off and land strikes up the middle as Carnelossi remains pressed tightly to her. Carnelossi ducks down for a single leg takedown, and Nunes looks for a power guillotine on the way down to the mat but bails on it when her backside hits the canvas. Carnelossi keeps her foe’s legs trapped beneath her leg triangle, but Nunes slithers one out and then the other before making her way upright. Nunes stands, and she knees Carnelossi on the chin once, but “Sorriso” does not register the blow as she hangs on with everything she has. Nunes stays busy with her back trapped, punching to the side occasionally, and she sneaks out the side to break free and just miss with a head kick. Nunes pops Carnelossi with a few punches as she backpedals, with the shorter Carnelossi crowding her and never giving her space to breathe. Nunes lets loose with a body kick, and this draws a sharp exhale from her opponent, with the latter appearing to slow. Nunes chains punches into body kicks, and she clips Carnelossi with a right hand before Carnelossi barrels towards her and slams her into the ground. Carnelossi manages to score a few left hands when Nunes is seated against the fencing, and Nunes appears flustered as she cannot get up thanks to Carnelossi’s position on top. Nunes powers back to her feet, but she does not get free before the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Round 3
Nunes begins the round by circling away to escape the power punches from her marauding opponent. Carnelossi attacks without faltering, throwing big punches and connecting more often than not. Nunes sticks and moves, but she cannot evade every one of the hooks coming her way. Nunes pierces the midsection with a few kicks, and she ducks out of the way as Carnelossi charges at her. They both just miss with single power strikes, and Nunes gets off a right hand only to get smacked with a counter that knocks her back into the wall. Carnelossi uses this momentum to go after a single, and Nunes grabs the fence again to try to pull her way up as Peterson slaps at her hand. When Nunes looks to scramble, Carnelossi climbs on to a three-quarter mount before getting a hook in and partially taking Nunes’ back.
Carnelossi hunts for a choke, and she snakes an arm beneath the throat. “Sorriso” senses that this is her moment to strike, and she snags the grip with her other arm to lock the rear-naked choke in completely.
The forearm under the chin, Nunes looks around, fights the grip for a second and then surrenders. The submission win is now just the second of Carnelossi’s career, who lands her first since a keylock in 2016.
The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Istela Nunes R3 2:57 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Nunes as an underdog but is hesitant due to her three-year layoff and USADA suspension. He notes Nunes is the more technical striker with speed and versatility, while Carnelossi is aggressive and strong but sloppy. He worries about Nunes' timing after the layoff but believes if she finds a rhythm, she will out-strike Carnelossi. He does not bet the moneyline but considers prop bets like plus 3.5 points or win inside distance/decision no action.
Big Brady picks Istela Nunes as a dog, citing her Muay Thai background and technical striking advantage. He notes Carnelossi is hittable with poor striking defense, but acknowledges Nunes has a three-year layoff and questions about her ground game. He is hesitant to bet due to the unknowns, but picks Nunes by decision.
Cody leans toward Carnelossi, noting her strength and physicality. He mentions that Nunes has fought only once in three years due to contract issues with ONE Championship, making her ring rust a concern. He acknowledges Carnelossi's reach disadvantage but thinks her tank-like build and cardio can carry her.
Daniel picks Carnelossi due to her UFC experience and power, comparing her style to Jessica Andrade. He notes that Carnelossi has one-hitter-quitter power that can trouble strawweights, and she rebounded well after a cut stoppage loss. He acknowledges Istela Nunes is scrappy and has finishes, but the USADA suspension and debut questions make him lean toward Carnelossi.
Carnelossi is a forward-pressure brawler who moves forward and throws big bombs, similar to a female John Lineker. Nunes has a long layoff and USADA suspension, making her a question mark. Carnelossi by decision is the play because Nunes is durable and likely to eat shots for 15 minutes.
Paul does not make a clear pick, admitting he is not familiar with Nunes and needs to study the fight more. He provides background on both fighters but does not state a preference.
The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi due to her superior experience and competition level. He highlights her 'man arms' and physical strength, as well as her proven ground game and stand-up, including a body kick KO. He predicts a ground-and-pound TKO in the second round, noting Carnelossi's cardio and ability to finish late.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Nunes as an underdog but is hesitant due to her three-year layoff and USADA suspension. He notes Nunes is the more technical striker with speed and versatility, while Carnelossi is aggressive and strong but sloppy. He worries about Nunes' timing after the layoff but believes if she finds a rhythm, she will out-strike Carnelossi. He does not bet the moneyline but considers prop bets like plus 3.5 points or win inside distance/decision no action.
Big Brady picks Istela Nunes as a dog, citing her Muay Thai background and technical striking advantage. He notes Carnelossi is hittable with poor striking defense, but acknowledges Nunes has a three-year layoff and questions about her ground game. He is hesitant to bet due to the unknowns, but picks Nunes by decision.
Cody leans toward Carnelossi, noting her strength and physicality. He mentions that Nunes has fought only once in three years due to contract issues with ONE Championship, making her ring rust a concern. He acknowledges Carnelossi's reach disadvantage but thinks her tank-like build and cardio can carry her.
Daniel picks Carnelossi due to her UFC experience and power, comparing her style to Jessica Andrade. He notes that Carnelossi has one-hitter-quitter power that can trouble strawweights, and she rebounded well after a cut stoppage loss. He acknowledges Istela Nunes is scrappy and has finishes, but the USADA suspension and debut questions make him lean toward Carnelossi.
Carnelossi is a forward-pressure brawler who moves forward and throws big bombs, similar to a female John Lineker. Nunes has a long layoff and USADA suspension, making her a question mark. Carnelossi by decision is the play because Nunes is durable and likely to eat shots for 15 minutes.
Paul does not make a clear pick, admitting he is not familiar with Nunes and needs to study the fight more. He provides background on both fighters but does not state a preference.
The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi due to her superior experience and competition level. He highlights her 'man arms' and physical strength, as well as her proven ground game and stand-up, including a body kick KO. He predicts a ground-and-pound TKO in the second round, noting Carnelossi's cardio and ability to finish late.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!