Career Averages - Geoff Neal
Career Averages - Belal Muhammad
Geoff Neal - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Uroš Medić | 1 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Uroš Medić | 1 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Uroš Medić | 10 of 19 | 52% | 4 of 10 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Uroš Medić | 10 of 19 | 52% | 4 of 10 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Geoff Neal despite recent knockout loss, citing his overall experience and well-rounded skill set. He acknowledges Uroš Medić's power and finishing ability but notes Medić's questionable chin. He is hesitant because Neal is 35 and coming off a KO, but believes Neal is the better fighter.
Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to defeat Uroš Medić, citing Medić's suspect chin and Neal's heavy hands. He notes that Medić has been dropped by lesser punchers like Gilbert Urbina, while Neal hits like a truck. He predicts a first-round knockout, possibly requiring a stretcher for Medić. He acknowledges Neal was knocked out in his last fight but calls that a fluke spinning elbow that would KO most of the division.
Cody buys into Neal's sobriety narrative and thinks this is his easiest fight in a while. He notes Medić is an under machine who either finishes or gets finished, and expects Neal to win by KO early. He recommends under 1.5 rounds.
Connor picks Neal confidently, stating that Medić is a glass cannon who gets hurt easily and sells out on his shots, leaving him vulnerable to counters. He notes that Neal has been tested against much better competition and has always been competitive, while Medić's wins have aged poorly. He believes Neal's composure and athleticism will be too much for Medić.
The host rules out betting on Neal due to red flags from an interview where Neal discussed past issues with drugs, alcohol, and diet, making him unreliable at -225. He is tempted by Medic as a +178 underdog, noting Medic's dynamic striking and power, but passes because Medic has slowed in past fights and Neal has excellent cardio. He concludes it's an easy pass on both sides.
James picks Geoff Neal to win by first-round KO, citing Neal's experience against elite competition and the step down in competition for Medic. He notes that Medic is volatile and prone to getting knocked out early, and that Neal's power and boxing should be enough to finish him. James also likes the under 1.5 rounds and doesn't go to decision props.
Neal is a crafty striker with good power and range management, and he has fought tougher competition. Medic is a Muay Thai specialist but has durability issues and poor grappling defense. Neal should be able to land a big shot and finish Medic, likely in the first round. The line is fair given Neal's experience and home crowd.
Paul thinks Neal's step up in competition is significant and that Medić's chin is suspect. He notes Neal has fought top welterweights and held his own, while Medić has been knocked out by lesser opponents. He expects Neal to win by KO, possibly in the first round.
The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Geoff Neal, despite concerns about his chin and motivation after a KO loss. He believes Medić makes mistakes and is explosive but can be caught coming in. He predicts Neal will find a way to put Medić away in round two after Medić expends his energy.
Zane agrees with Connor, calling Medić a 'one hitter quitter' who is extremely vulnerable on the counter. He notes that Medić has no defense and gets hurt easily, even in fights he wins. He believes Neal is significantly better in the pocket and should be able to weather Medić's early power and then take over.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 26 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Carlos Prates | 1 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 26 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Carlos Prates | 1 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 25 of 49 | 51% | 16 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 32 of 60 | 53% | 17 of 45 | 8 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 32 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 25 of 49 | 51% | 16 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 32 of 60 | 53% | 17 of 45 | 8 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 32 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-250), Neal (+205)
Round 1
Welcome to what many are considering the “just bleed” matchup of the evening. Two welterweight flamethrowers will throw down mightily, and referee Jason Herzog gets the honor of handling it personally. Fortis MMA athlete Neal (16-6, 8-4 UFC) and Fighting Nerds representative Prates (21-7, 4-1 UFC) meet with 26 knockouts across their 37 total victories, and one more could be coming soon. Before they try to lop one another’s head off, Herzog has to usher them back to their corners. Despite that, they bump their fists together cordially.
Prates bounces up and down in the center of the Octagon, and Neal leads off with an inside calf kick. Prates jabs him back, and Neal kicks to the same spot before going high. Neal crowds a kicking Prates but goes not let his hands go, instead resetting to score a short but powerful left hook. Prates spins with a back kick to the stomach and kicks him in the front leg when planting, and Neal bull-rushes him. Prates tries for a jump knee, and Neal catches it and fires back with his right hand a few times. Prates reclaims his limb and resets, where he goes high with punches. Neal jabs him to the body and makes Prates back off with long punches, while Prates scores a few hard calf kicks. Prates darts in and out with a jab, and Neal crowds him with punches before Prates circles all the way around the cage. Prates sinks a leg kick home, and he is out of the way before Neal can get to him.
Both men connect with single left hands before bailing, and Prates calms himself down and looses two punches down the middle along with a step-in knee. Neal fires back with a vengeance, landing at least partially on his opponent and kicking him in the chest. Neal jacks Prates in the jaw with a left hand, and Prates responds with a crisp left to the body and then a knee to the same spot. Some swelling develops under Neal’s left eye, and Prates notices it and aims a spinning wheel kick at it. The kick pops off the guard, but Prates’ jab finds its target. Neal does not seem concerned, cracking Prates on the way in. Prates gathers a head of steam and loose a one-two, a body kick, a knee, two more punches and a jumping knee in one heck of a combination. Neal grabs him at the end of it to turn him to the cage, and Prates makes fun of him for trying to wrestle. Neal lets him go, and Prates blasts him with punches and chases him around the cage with an elbow strike. With seconds left on the clock, the Brazilian spins like a top and demolishes Neal with a spinning back elbow. The sound of the blow echoes through the United Center, and blood sprays from an open wound on the side of his temple. Herzog waves the fight off with a second to go on the clock, and Prates has bounced back from a tough loss with a spectacular knockout of an insanely durable Neal. On his post-fight interview, Prates gives it up for the Fighting Nerds team, remarks that he will be celebrating his birthday tomorrow, asks for a fight in Rio de Janeiro in October along with a post-fight bonus—which UFC chief Dana White grants both immediately—and pitches that the UFC sign up his training partner, LFA flyweight champ Marcos Degli.
The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Geoff Neal R1 4:59 via KO (Spinning Back Elbow)
Angelo thinks Prates is the better striker with power, accuracy, and cardio, and expects a striking match. He notes Neal may shoot takedowns but Prates should be ready. He hopes for a showcase performance from Prates to build him back up after his loss to Ian Garry.
Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by first-round knockout. He notes Prates has long reach, power, and fast combinations, and when he gets going he is very dangerous. He worries about Prates' slow starts but thinks Neal will force him to engage. He mentions Prates' brutal knockouts of Trevin Giles and others. He doesn't love the moneyline but thinks Prates can knock out Neal, who has a solid chin but can be hit.
Connor picks Prates, but with hesitation, acknowledging that Prates' game is limited and not built for elite competition, as seen in the Ian Garry fight. He notes that Neal is durable and will make it tough, but Prates' pressure and dangerous striking could overwhelm Neal, who tends to let opponents dictate the fight. Connor hopes Prates has learned from the Garry fight and can implement adjustments.
The host views Neal as underrated and tough, and believes his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land big shots on Prates throughout the fight. He expects Neal to win on the scorecards as the underdog.
The Guru picks Carlos Prates to finish Geoff Neal, citing Prates' lateral movement and ability to find outside foot position. He notes that Neal struggles against fighters who move side-to-side, as seen in his fight with Neil Magny. The Guru believes Prates will land knees up the middle and finish Neal in the late first or second round. He also mentions that Prates nearly finished Ian Garry and has shown finishing ability against stationary opponents.
Zane is tempted to pick Neal, noting that Neal is durable, fast, and has a limited but effective game against elite opponents. He points out that Prates struggles with complex problems and has never faced a fellow southpaw. Zane believes Neal could pressure Prates and win rounds with his boxing and durability, but he is not fully confident due to Neal's tendency to let opponents dictate the fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 18 of 30 | 60% | 12 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 4 of 13 | 30% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 18 of 30 | 60% | 12 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 4 of 13 | 30% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Geoff Neal but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Neal is younger, has good takedown defense and hands, and should win if the fight stays standing. However, he acknowledges RDA could get takedowns and grind out a decision. He will leave this fight alone due to the risk.
Big Brady strongly favors Neal, calling it a bad matchup for RDA. He notes that RDA struggles at welterweight against bigger guys and that Neal has elite takedown defense (87%). He believes Neal is the much better striker with more power and that RDA won't be able to take him down. He predicts Neal wins by decision, stuffing takedowns and doing better work on the feet.
Cody leans toward Rafael dos Anjos as an underdog, noting that RDA's wrestling and cardio could neutralize Neal's striking. He points out that Neal has struggled against wrestlers like Neil Magny, and that RDA's takedown-heavy approach could frustrate Neal. However, Cody is hesitant because RDA is 40 and has lost to superior grapplers. He suggests a small play or pass.
Connor picks Neal, agreeing that RDA at welterweight is not the same bully. He notes that RDA's game relies on being a physical bully, which he can't do at welterweight, and that Neal is capable of putting together moments of offense that win rounds. Connor also mentions that RDA is almost 40 and has a lot of mileage.
Daniel Vreeland picks Geoff Neal to win, citing significant advantages in size, speed, and youth. He notes that Neal has faced much larger opponents recently and that RDA is a smaller fighter who may struggle with Neal's reach and takedown defense. Vreeland acknowledges Neal's inconsistency but believes this is a favorable matchup.
Daniel Vreeland picks Neal, citing his size, youth, and recent competition against top welterweights. He notes that RDA's wrestling has dropped off significantly, giving up 19 takedowns in his last two fights. Vreeland believes Neal's speed and game plan will be too much for the aging RDA.
Jeff Fox also picks Neal, emphasizing RDA's declining wrestling. He notes that Neal has sneaky good wrestling and that RDA's takedown defense has worsened. Fox expects Neal to be faster on the feet and implement a better game plan.
Welterweight is not the best weight class for dos Anjos, and Neal should stop his takedowns and utilize his striking advantage. It wouldn't surprise me if Neal knocks dos Anjos out, but I lean with Neal winning on the scorecards.
Paul picks Geoff Neal, believing his reach and boxing will keep the fight standing. He notes that RDA's wrestling has not been as effective at welterweight against bigger opponents. Paul thinks Neal can stuff takedowns and use his length to outpoint RDA. He is not highly confident but leans Neal.
The Guru picks Geoff Neal by TKO in the second round, arguing that Rafael dos Anjos at 39 is outmatched physically. He notes Neal's size, power, and takedown defense (citing the Belal Muhammad fight) will be too much for RDA. He believes RDA's only path is to brawl in the pocket, which favors Neal. The Guru predicts a vicious finish, possibly ending RDA's career.
Zane clearly favored Neal, describing the fight as a 'sad days fight' for RDA. He noted that RDA's game of physical bullying and pressure doesn't work at welterweight because guys are too big and hit too hard. Zane pointed out that RDA got crushed by the first shot and blew out his knee, calling it an old man way to lose. He praised Neal's performance but remains skeptical about Neal's title prospects.
Zane picks Neal because RDA at welterweight is not the same relentless pressure fighter he was at lightweight; he's more reluctant to apply pressure and gets hit harder. Neal is a puncher who can keep his output up and win rounds, even if he gets stalled for one. Zane notes that RDA's wrestling is deteriorating and he's almost 40.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 46 of 89 | 51% | 57 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:45 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 67 of 135 | 49% | 80 of 148 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 18 of 27 | 66% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 31 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | 46 of 89 | 51% | 25 of 64 | 10 of 13 | 11 of 12 | 38 of 79 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 67 of 135 | 49% | 39 of 96 | 18 of 27 | 10 of 12 | 65 of 133 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Machado Garry | 18 of 27 | 66% | 11 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 20 of 38 | 52% | 10 of 24 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ian Machado Garry | 17 of 34 | 50% | 10 of 24 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 23 of 43 | 53% | 16 of 34 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ian Machado Garry | 11 of 28 | 39% | 4 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 24 of 54 | 44% | 13 of 38 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 23 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ian Garry, citing his superior striking, hand speed, and footwork. He notes Garry is hittable but believes he can control range and avoid Neal's power. He plans to bet Geoff Neal inside the distance decision no action, as Neal is durable and has finishing upside. He is rooting for Neal but thinks Garry wins.
Big Brady picks Geoff Neal as a dog to win by second-round knockout. He notes Gary's poor striking defense (53%) and history of getting dropped, while Neal has heavy hands (nicknamed 'Hands of Steel'). He acknowledges Gary is likely winning minutes but believes Neal's power gives him a live chance to land a big shot. He mentions Neal's past health issues but thinks if he's healthy, he can knock Gary out.
Cody picks Garry, emphasizing his speed and range management. He notes Neal is a one-dimensional boxer who struggles with lateral movement, as seen against Wonderboy. He expects Garry to use his jab and footwork to outpoint Neal, though he acknowledges Neal's power. He dislikes Garry's persona but believes he wins on volume.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ian Machado Garry, citing his cleaner technical striking, better distance management, and superior striking defense. He notes Garry's leg kick heavy game plan against Magny (43/43 leg kicks) and believes Neal's hot-and-cold form since his near-death experience makes him unreliable. He also mentions Garry's takedown defense and five-round experience.
Neal is a deadly combination striker with power. He can close the pocket and exchange with Garry, opening a knockout opportunity. Garry relies on length and reach, but Neal's experience and technical advantages lead to a second-round KO.
Paul picks Garry despite wanting him to lose due to his persona. He notes Garry's length, technical striking, and ability to stay at range. He thinks Neal is one-dimensional and struggles with mobile strikers, as seen in the Wonderboy fight. He expects Garry to outpoint Neal with volume and lateral movement, though he acknowledges Neal's power threat.
The MMA Guru picks Geoff Neal, citing Ian Garry's vulnerability to being caught on the chin and his lack of KO power in the UFC. He notes Garry's short reach for his height and his recent camp disruptions. He believes Neal's high guard and toughness will allow him to survive and land hooks, predicting a late round one or round two KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 69 of 145 | 47% | 69 of 145 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 113 of 179 | 63% | 120 of 186 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 3:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 43 of 64 | 67% | 46 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 20 of 57 | 35% | 20 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 35 of 70 | 50% | 35 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 | |
| 3 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 35 of 45 | 77% | 39 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 69 of 145 | 47% | 63 of 136 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 57 of 129 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 113 of 179 | 63% | 69 of 130 | 39 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 74 of 131 | 39 of 48 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 29 of 54 | 53% | 27 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 23 of 47 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 43 of 64 | 67% | 26 of 44 | 17 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 50 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 20 of 57 | 35% | 18 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 35 of 70 | 50% | 20 of 54 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 56 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 20 of 34 | 58% | 18 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 27 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Geoff Neal | 35 of 45 | 77% | 23 of 32 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 25 | 18 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling him an absolute savage who can submit, knock out, or outwrestle opponents. He notes that Rakhmonov is on a different level and should get the job done. Angelo thinks -500 is fine for parlays.
Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, citing his size, power, and submission game. He notes Neal has good takedown defense but was taken down by Neil Magny, and Rakhmonov is a better wrestler. He predicts a second-round submission for Rakhmonov, but acknowledges if the fight stays standing, it gets interesting.
Cody is high on Rakhmonov, calling him 'the truth' and praising his well-rounded game, clinch work, and finishing ability. He thinks Neal's power is a threat but that Rakhmonov's grappling and fight IQ will be too much. He expects Rakhmonov to win but is unsure if he finishes Neal.
Connor picks Rakhmonov confidently, noting Neal's limited toolkit (left hand, left kick) and inability to adjust. He expects Rakhmonov to use his creativity and clinch work to overwhelm Neal, who will likely run into clinches where Rakhmonov can wrestle and land strikes. He acknowledges Neal's toughness and power but sees the matchup as stylistically poor for Neal.
Jacob is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that his toughest test on paper was Neil Magny, whom he dominated. He believes Rakhmonov is too rangy and skilled for Geoff Neal, who relies on power. Jacob expects a first or second round finish.
Rakhmonov is a pressure grappler with a 100% finish rate. Neal is a good striker but has struggled against pressure grapplers. Rakhmonov will take the fight to the ground and submit Neal. The fight doesn't go to decision.
Paul agrees with Cody that Rakhmonov is the truth and expects him to win. He notes Neal's takedown defense is good but thinks Rakhmonov is a different level. He likes the over 1.5 takedowns prop for Rakhmonov.
The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, despite noting the odds are too wide. He questions Neal's recent performances and believes Rakhmonov's wild style and grappling will be too much, though he acknowledges Neal's KO power.
Zane agrees, highlighting Neal's predictability and lack of adaptability. He notes Rakhmonov's willingness to experiment and clinch, and that Neal's straight-line entries will lead to clinches where Rakhmonov can dominate. He sees Neal's only path as an early knockout, but Rakhmonov's size and confidence make that unlikely.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 97 of 203 | 47% | 97 of 203 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 2 | 121 of 211 | 57% | 125 of 215 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 30 of 80 | 37% | 30 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 1 | 52 of 93 | 55% | 53 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 51 of 91 | 56% | 51 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 40 of 75 | 53% | 43 of 78 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 3 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 1 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 97 of 203 | 47% | 56 of 156 | 26 of 31 | 15 of 16 | 91 of 195 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 121 of 211 | 57% | 113 of 202 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 103 of 186 | 17 of 22 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 30 of 80 | 37% | 20 of 67 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 29 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 52 of 93 | 55% | 48 of 89 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 49 of 87 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 3 | |
| 2 | Geoff Neal | 51 of 91 | 56% | 28 of 68 | 15 of 15 | 8 of 8 | 46 of 85 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 40 of 75 | 53% | 36 of 70 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 66 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Geoff Neal | 16 of 32 | 50% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 29 of 43 | 67% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 33 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Vicente Luque, believing this will be a striking match since Geoff Neal rarely wrestles. He favors Luque's better striking differential, cleaner footwork, speed, and higher volume. He acknowledges Luque's grappling holes but doesn't think Neal will exploit them. He is pretty confident in Luque to get the win.
Big Brady picks Vicente Luque, citing his durability, chin, and willingness to brawl. He notes that Geoff Neal has looked off in his last three fights and may not be the same killer he was earlier in his UFC run. He believes Luque's submission game is dangerous if the fight goes to the mat, and that Neal's takedown defense is good but he is unlikely to wrestle. He predicts a competitive decision win for Luque, though he acknowledges Neal's power and the possibility of a finish.
Cody also picks Luque, citing his volume, footwork, and ability to work the body and legs. He notes that Luque is hittable but durable, and that Neal hasn't knocked anyone out since Mike Perry three years ago. Cody believes Luque's sharpness and output will be too much for Neal, who has looked unmotivated in recent losses.
Daniel Levi picks Geoff Neal as an underdog, believing the southpaw stance will neutralize Luque's calf kicks and open up liver kicks. He thinks Neal's speed and footwork can frustrate Luque, and if Neal is truly healthy again, he can win a decision or even score a knockout. Levi acknowledges Luque's power and finishing ability but likes the plus-155 price and sees this as a fight that could go either way.
Paul picks Luque, noting that Luque has more ways to win and is historically durable. He mentions that Luque hasn't landed a takedown since 2017 but is a great grappler in scrambles. Paul thinks Luque wins about 65-70% of the time and will wait for a better price. He also notes that Neal has looked unmotivated in recent fights.
The MMA Guru picks Geoff Neal as an underdog by 29-28 decision. He thinks Luque takes too long to get going in three-rounders and Neal's power will earn respect. He believes Neal can keep range and avoid brawling, similar to how Randy Brown and Nico Price had success. He predicts Neal wins the first round clearly, edges the second, and survives the third.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 85 of 161 | 52% | 86 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 91 of 229 | 39% | 91 of 229 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 26 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 19 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 26 of 73 | 35% | 26 of 73 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 46 of 73 | 63% | 46 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 39 of 93 | 41% | 39 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 85 of 161 | 52% | 73 of 145 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 85 of 161 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 91 of 229 | 39% | 62 of 195 | 12 of 17 | 17 of 17 | 90 of 228 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 20 of 41 | 48% | 13 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 26 of 63 | 41% | 17 of 54 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Geoff Neal | 19 of 47 | 40% | 16 of 41 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 26 of 73 | 35% | 15 of 61 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Geoff Neal | 46 of 73 | 63% | 44 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 46 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 39 of 93 | 41% | 30 of 80 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 39 of 93 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to win by knockout, but with low confidence due to Neal's recent DUI and gun possession arrest. He notes that Neal has a power advantage and reach advantage over Ponzinibbio, who is 35 and coming off a layoff and a knockout loss. However, Neal's preparation is a major concern. Brady says if Neal shows up focused, he has a good chance, but he is not sure the fight will even happen.
Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win a war of attrition. He notes that both fighters nearly died from medical issues, but Ponzinibbio looked better in his last fight against Miguel Baeza, shaking off rust. Levi questions whether Geoff Neal has recovered from his sepsis and heart failure, citing poor performances against Wonderboy and Neil Magny. He believes Ponzinibbio's jab, straight right, calf kicks, and takedown defense will be too much. Levi expects Ponzinibbio to be more aggressive and meaner.
Neal is the more technical striker and will counter Ponzinibbio's aggressive pressure effectively. Ponzinibbio has defensive flaws and is hittable, especially against a counter-striker. Neal's straight right and speed should find the mark, and a knockout is possible. The underdog odds provide value.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, citing his experience, technical striking, and ability to pressure. He notes that Geoff Neal had a troubled training camp (jail time) and has shown vulnerability against pressure fighters. He predicts Ponzinibbio will win 30-27.
Belal Muhammad - Fight History
The host picks Belal Muhammad, citing his pace and cardio over five rounds as the deciding factor. He acknowledges that Bonfim is more technical and skilled, but believes Muhammad's relentless forward pressure and grappling will wear Bonfim down, especially in the later rounds. He notes that Bonfim's lone loss came to a pace-pusher in a three-round fight, and now he faces five rounds of Muhammad.
AJ believes Belal Muhammad will bounce back from recent losses to top competition, using his wrestling and control time to neutralize Gabriel Bonfim. He notes Bonfim's height advantage and striking volume but questions his takedown defense (76%) compared to Muhammad's (90%). AJ acknowledges the risk of Muhammad's age and recent striking deficits but expects a rebound win, possibly by decision.
AJ picks Bonfim to win, citing his youth, precise striking, leg kicks, and jiu-jitsu. He believes Bonfim's footwork and accuracy will trouble Muhammad, and that Muhammad's wrestling edge is negated by Bonfim's grappling. AJ expects Bonfim to do damage on the feet and possibly win by decision or late finish.
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad, believing he will slow the pace and use his wrestling to grind out a win. He notes Muhammad's toughness, cardio, and ability to outwork opponents. He thinks Muhammad needs to make the fight boring and avoid giving Bonfim room to strike. He has never seen Muhammad break, while Bonfim has been broken before.
Big Brady picks Belal Muhammad to win by decision. He highlights Muhammad's elite durability and takedown defense, and thinks the five-round fight favors Muhammad's cardio. He doubts Bonfim can take Muhammad down or knock him out, and expects Muhammad to take over as the fight goes on. He also notes that Bonfim's recent wins are questionable.
Belal Muhammad has heart and a great gas tank, and he will push the pace to win a close decision. Gabriel Bonfim is overrated, with a controversial win over Stephen Thompson and a loss to Nicolas Dalby. Bonfim tends to not push the gas pedal, while Muhammad will outwork him.
Cody picks Belal Muhammad, emphasizing that the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Muhammad due to Bonfim's poor cardio and lack of durability. He notes Bonfim is explosive early but fades, and Muhammad has proven five-round cardio and durability. He suggests live betting Muhammad after the first two rounds for better value.
Belal Muhammad is picked due to his superior cardio and pressure, which will break Gabriel Bonfim over five rounds. The host notes Bonfim's only loss was to Nicolas Dalby, who maintained a high pace, and Belal's boxing and wrestling are better. He sees Belal winning by unanimous decision or late stoppage, as Bonfim's submission skills are from top position and Belal is good at avoiding danger. The host is not sold on Bonfim as a prospect and believes Belal's championship experience is key.
Muhammad's wrestling and cardio are elite, and Bonfim has never faced a wrestler of his caliber. Bonfim's takedown defense is questionable, as he was taken down by lesser fighters. Muhammad should control the fight for 25 minutes and win a unanimous decision.
Lucrative James picks Belal Muhammad despite the 10-year age disadvantage, citing Belal's superior experience, gas tank, and wrestling. He believes Bonfim is a 'finish or bust' fighter who will fade after the first couple of rounds, and that Belal's durability and veteran savvy will allow him to survive early submission threats and take over in later rounds. He predicts a round 4 or 5 knockout via ground and pound.
Muhammad's high pace, durability, and cardio should overwhelm Bonfim, who has cardio issues. Bonfim's best chance is an early stoppage, but if it reaches the third round, Muhammad will take over and likely get a TKO in round 4.
Paul picks Belal Muhammad but is hesitant, noting Bonfim could land something early. He prefers to watch live and has placed prop bets on Muhammad winning in rounds 4 and 5 at high odds, expecting Muhammad's cardio to prevail in later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 56 of 139 | 40% | 97 of 197 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 72 of 141 | 51% | 96 of 167 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 30 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 27 of 53 | 50% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 28 of 58 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 39 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 30 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 56 of 139 | 40% | 45 of 126 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 52 of 131 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 72 of 141 | 51% | 35 of 98 | 10 of 15 | 27 of 28 | 66 of 134 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 24 of 57 | 42% | 17 of 49 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 23 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 27 of 53 | 50% | 14 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 11 of 12 | 27 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 11 of 33 | 33% | 9 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 20 of 39 | 51% | 9 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 8 | 19 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 21 of 49 | 42% | 19 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ian Machado Garry | 25 of 49 | 51% | 12 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 20 of 43 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garry (-240); Muhammad (+190)
Round 1
Many have complained that this welterweight co-main attraction is not receiving five-round attention given its high stakes and that both men prefer a prolonged engagement. Nonetheless, Muhammad (24-4, 1 NC; 15-4, 1 NC UFC) and Garry (16-1, 9-1 UFC) will have three rounds to work today, meaning that every minute will count that much more. Fully aware that this one could reach the 15-minute mark, referee Rich Mitchell is in it for the long haul. The fighters do not touch gloves, opting to get right down to business.
Muhammad punches his way in, and Garry backs him off with a low kick and one high. Garry gets away with a slight eye scrape, and after a combination, he pushes off and jams his finger into Muhammad’s right eye socket. The few punches he landed have opened a cut beneath Muhammad’s left eye, which is not the one poked. Mitchell calls time and brings in the doctor but does not have a towel or cloth to wipe out the former champ’s eye. Mitchell admonishes the doctor for not bringing in the towel, who then comes in and bizarrely (and improperly) tends to the cut instead of the eye. The fighter cleans his eye out and is ready to go after about 100 seconds. Garry is quick to get right back behind his jab, intercepting Muhammad as he looks to change levels. Garry pushes out a front kick and checks a kick, and Garry’s low kick response is far heavier. Garry fires off a high kick from a safe distance, stay away from Muhammad getting his hands on him. Muhammad tries to cream him with a huge overhand right, missing it by a matter of millimeters. He tries again with the same swinging strike, and it is much more distant this time around. Garry’s jab flusters Muhammad, but he slips and has to scramble to get away. Garry stomps at Muhammad’s knee on the reset.
Muhammad paws out with his own left hand, faking level changes to draw reactions out of his opponent and marking up Garry’s cheek. Muhammad launches a head kick to target that wound, and he crashes forward when that is blocked to tie the Irishman up. Garry escapes, but Muhammad follows him and clips him with his hard right hand. Garry times a left hand that gets Muhammad’s attention, and he manages to lean back to evade the looping strike aimed at his face. Garry pounds the front leg with a kick, and Muhammad counters him with a solid left. Muhammad shoots for a single, spinning Garry around several times but not grounding him. The taller Garry keeps himself upright and puts the wall behind him so that he can rebound and break free, and he looks for spinning strikes as the round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Round 2
Garry starts the round off with kicks to the lead knee, his oblique kicks hyperextending the limb when it lands flush. His jabs open a little cut on the bridge of the nose as well, and he catches Muhammad in the midst of an exchange but is nailed with the counter. Garry snaps the head back with a jab, and he leans to not get caught on the way out. Garry doubles up on his jab to plunk Muhammad with a right hand, and he spins with a back kick to the torso to punctuate the combination. Garry lands a hard leg kick, and Muhammad blitzes him with a body lock to take the fight horizontal. Garry splits off before getting dragged down, and Muhammad is warned for his outstretched fingers. Muhammad crashes the pocket again for a takedown, and the two clack heads when up close.
Muhammad puts his hand on the top of the fence illegally and is fussed at a few times before taking it back down, and the clinch continues. Muhammad embraces the grind by pressing as much of his body weight on the Irishman as he can, but Garry breaks free and trades hands with him on the way out. Muhammad shoots for a single, and Garry stifles him and bullies him on the way out. Muhammad bounces off the fence to reset, and he drives a one-two down the pipe. Garry pushes out with both hands, fingers outstretched, and he pokes Muhammad in the eye with at least his left. Mitchell calls time again and demands the doctor come back into the cage with another cloth to let him wipe it out, and Muhammad is irritated about the fouls landing on him again. Rules mean nothing, because Garry is only told to be careful with his fingers after landing multiple eye pokes and already being warned for this as well. Muhammad is good to go after about 75 seconds, and he proceeds to chase down the Irishman letting his hands go. Muhammad drops to a knee to go after a takedown, and he pushes Garry to the fence. Garry shrugs to signal he is just being held in place, so Muhammad knees him in the thigh a few times for good measure. Garry breaks out of the clinch with an elbow right at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 3
Muhammad takes a few seconds to charge his battery, and then proceeds to angrily race after Garry with his fists swinging. Garry bounces off the cage wall to get to his preferred range, and he nails Muhammad with a one-two. He follows the effective strike with a front kick that bashes “Remember the Name” in the face. Muhammad can only reply with a single entry, and Garry stops it, ducking away when Muhammad tries for something on the break. Muhammad walks him down and belts him with a vicious right hand, and Garry’s chin is granite after absorbing the blow. Muhammad bullies Garry to the wire when pursuing a takedown, and Garry’s defense holds up while Muhammad gloms onto him. Garry turns him about and has his guard ready to defend the high kick he anticipates.
Garry hurts Muhammad’s front leg with a number of push kicks to the knee, again hyperextending it and torqueing the tendons like overtuned guitar strings about to snap. They spin one another around when finding themselves in a clinch, and Garry is tripped up and bounces back to his feet as if there were springs in his heels. The Irishman walks through a pair of punches to fire back with a vengeance, clipping Muhammad with a right hand and shifting to be just out of range of anticipated counters. Muhammad settles for a clinch try, and Garry splits before long but has his hands down waiting for Muhammad to approach him. This allows Muhammad to pop him in the chops with several fast punches, only to get met with a slashing elbow that would make Jason Voorhees blush. Muhammad holds serve as he tries to give Garry everything he has left, and the two men proceed to go wild with head kicks, spinning stuff, looping punches and anything else they can muster until time expires. This one was very close and scores may vary, but a title shot may not be looming for the victor given the other recent spectacular performances at welterweight for names like Michael Morales and Carlos Prates.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garry (30-27 Garry)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garry (30-27 Garry)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garry (29-28 Garry)
The Official Result
Ian Garry def. Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Ian Garry over Belal Muhammad. He argues that if Garry can defend takedowns, he wins easily due to superior striking, length, speed, and power. Muhammad's only path is wrestling, but he has no Plan B. Garry showed adjustments in his loss to Shavkat, while Muhammad is one-dimensional. Angelo acknowledges the fight is competitive but favors Garry.
Big Brady picks Ian Machado Garry by decision, criticizing Belal Muhammad's fight IQ and game plan. He believes Muhammad will try to strike instead of wrestle, leading to a clear decision loss. He notes Muhammad's tools but doubts his execution.
Cody picks Ian Garry confidently, noting that Belal Muhammad's wins are aging poorly and that Garry is younger, bigger, and has better takedown defense. He believes Garry can outpoint Muhammad and stuff takedowns, similar to how Michael Morales beat Brady. Cody warns against falling into the trap of hating on Belal, but ultimately sees Garry's advantages.
Connor picks Garry, citing his size, reach, and athleticism as key advantages over Muhammad. He notes that Muhammad's wins have come against smaller opponents and that Garry's improved striking and clinch work from the Prochazka fight give him confidence. Connor acknowledges Muhammad's tactical skill but doubts his physicality at the elite level.
Lucrative James picks Ian Garry, citing his superior striking, youth (27 vs 37), and recent grappling improvements shown against Shavkat Rakhmonov. He believes Belal's only path is wrestling, but Garry's takedown defense and scrambling have improved. He notes the 10-year age gap and Garry's momentum. He predicts a decision win for Garry.
Garry is a slick striker with high fight IQ and takedown defense. Muhammad relies on grappling pressure but may struggle to get takedowns. Garry should out-strike him and win a decision, possibly with a late finish.
Paul picks Ian Garry, having added him to parlays early. He believes Garry's length, footwork, and takedown defense will be too much for Belal, who is at the end of his career. Paul notes that Belal's wins are aging poorly and that Garry's striking and ring IQ are superior.
The MMA Guru picks Ian Garry over Belal Muhammad, believing Garry's striking and takedown defense will be too much. He notes Garry's performances against Shavkat and MVP. He predicts a third-round TKO, with Garry calling out Makhachev afterward.
Zane also picks Garry, emphasizing his faith in Garry's improved game plan and coaching from the Prochazka fight. He notes that Garry's reach and ability to control range will trouble Muhammad, who lacks the athleticism to pressure effectively. Zane sees Muhammad's path to victory as narrow, requiring a perfect game plan.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 132 of 318 | 41% | 155 of 349 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 178 of 342 | 52% | 200 of 364 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 21 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 28 of 61 | 45% | 28 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 21 of 63 | 33% | 21 of 63 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 30 of 63 | 47% | 30 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 32 of 79 | 40% | 32 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 34 of 76 | 44% | 35 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 35 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 33 of 59 | 55% | 51 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 27 of 62 | 43% | 46 of 88 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 53 of 83 | 63% | 56 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 132 of 318 | 41% | 119 of 297 | 11 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 116 of 295 | 14 of 21 | 2 of 2 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 178 of 342 | 52% | 113 of 254 | 47 of 65 | 18 of 23 | 167 of 326 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 21 of 49 | 42% | 15 of 40 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 28 of 61 | 45% | 14 of 39 | 7 of 11 | 7 of 11 | 27 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 21 of 63 | 33% | 19 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 61 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 30 of 63 | 47% | 16 of 45 | 10 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 32 of 79 | 40% | 29 of 74 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 76 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 34 of 76 | 44% | 20 of 58 | 10 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 31 of 65 | 47% | 30 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 54 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 33 of 59 | 55% | 27 of 48 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 32 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 27 of 62 | 43% | 26 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 53 of 83 | 63% | 36 of 64 | 16 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 45 of 74 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Muhammad (-192), Della Maddalena (+160)
Round 1
Sometimes, a champion does not defend their throne against the top contender, but rather the top contender that is available at the time. This welterweight headliner will see Muhammad (24-3, 1 NC; 15-3, 1 NC UFC) put his belt on the line for the first time, and he meets Della Maddalena (17-2, 7-0 UFC) for all the marbles in a prototypical striker vs. grappler matchup at the highest level. Referee Jason Herzog will be the third man in the Octagon for a match that could very well go 25 hard minutes, and he brings them to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and touch gloves. It’s on with the show. Della Maddalena immediately takes to the center of the cage, where he jabs his way forward. Muhammad responds with a body shot, and Della Maddalena jabs him up. Della Maddalena kicks and punches his way forward, beating the champ to the punch. Muhammad responds with his own jab and a high kick that makes Della Maddalena spin around, from momentum and not damage. They flick jabs at one another, with Della Maddalena the more active of the two. Della Maddalena picks and pokes, and Della Maddalena responds with a power right hand. He lands a second, getting the challenger’s attention. The Aussie keeps his guard up to block a trio of punches coming his way, and kicks the champ upside the head and lances him with a left hand. A right hand from Della Maddalena stings Muhammad with a right hand up top, and he gets jabbed back and eats a right hand that follows. Della Maddalena’s leg kick lands a few times here and there when not landing up top, and he chains a low kick into one high. Della Maddalena sneaks in a left hand, and he nails the front leg with another kick. Muhammad lunges and cannot reach his man, but he sells out and shoots for something. He bails on it to drill Della Maddalena with a punch flurry, and his head kick at the end gets in. Muhammad dodges a knee and pushes out his own jab, and he rips a left to the body and kicks the same spot. They crash together, letting loose elbows that hurt the other, and then back off. One missed hook kick from the champ concludes the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Round 2
Della Maddalena begins the second stanza aggressively with kicks aimed at all targets, and he pulls back when Muhammad starts to put a jab together. Muhammad rifles off a right hand, and when Della Maddalena ducks, the champ punts him in the head. Della Maddalena’s crooked nose stays crooked as a result, and he reaches out a right hand in response. The toes of the challenger stab into his foe’s midsection, who sits in the pocket and looks for hooks from up close. Della Maddalena drives home a one-two that sends a gob of spit flying from Muhammad’s mouth, and Muhammad takes it flush and does not waver. Instead, Muhammad evades a front kick and lashes out with punches. They take turns attacking one another, until Muhammad breaks up the back-and-forth striking with a takedown shot. Della Maddalena shrugs it off, and he blocks a high kick that he knows is coming. Muhammad loops a few left hands out while trying to wrap them around the jab, and he kicks the challenger in the side that is already showing some welting. Muhammad punches his way into a takedown, and when it fails, he lands a few punches but gets caught on the way out. Muhammad catches Della Maddalena with a left hand when circling away, and he parries a front kick and comes up short by a matter of inches with his hooks. Della Maddalena jabs to the body, and Muhammad whacks him upside the head with a hard right hand. Della Maddalena responds with a combination that busts Muhammad’s nose open, and blood is quick to flow. Muhammad tries a spinning back fist, and Della Maddalena mocks him with one of his own before attempting an earnest wheel kick that brushes past the beard. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Round 3
The third round opens up as both men launch punches at one another, with Muhammad landing the better in the early exchange. Della Maddalena bites down on his mouthpiece to let his fists fly, and the third and fourth in a combination knock the champ’s head around. Della Maddalena dodges and sways when Muhammad returns fire, exaggerating his movement as he is feeling himself in there. Della Maddalena jabs the body with his foot, and kicks the lead shoulder. Muhammad responds in kind, and he laughs off a faked takedown effort from the Aussie. Muhammad punches his way forward, but he backs off before landing anything of merit. Instead, it is Della Maddalena who connects, with a right hand. Muhammad walks him down and connects a few times, but his nose gets further bloodied up by the speedy hands of the challenger. Della Maddalena chips at the calf, and he leans back as a right hand buzzes his temple. Della Maddalena jabs a few times, and Muhammad steels himself and launches a big right. Della Maddalena takes it flush and keeps on rolling, jabbing to the head and body as he keeps things mixed up. He rings the champ’s bell with a right hand, who then gives him back a left hook to think about. Muhammad pushes out a knee that bounces off the guard, and he chambers and fires a huge right hand that does not fluster his foe in the least. Muhammad runs forward, ignoring the jabs to let bigger punches go. This succeeds to a degree, until the boxer tags him with a right hand. Della Maddalena then scores a left as he backs away, in his element, strafing and swaying as he glides around. Muhammad walks him down and busts him in the face, and Della Maddalena laughs them off and throws back hammers. Muhammad shoots for a takedown, and he leans against his foe when he does not get it. Della Maddalena defends it and tries for his own, and Muhammad elbows him in the side and back of the head. Muhammad is warned for the strikes as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Round 4
Shockingly, the champion might need a finish as they enter the fourth frame, and given Muhammad’s 25% stoppage rate, it might be an uphill battle. Nevertheless, he tries hard right out of the gate, practically sprinting at the challenger and landing heavy punches. Della Maddalena lets him do this and backs away to the wall to rebound off of it, but his jabs are not deterring Muhammad any longer. Muhammad marks up the bridge of Della Maddalena’s nose, swinging with big uppercuts and getting caught on the way in. The champ shoots for a takedown, and he lets it go to unload with a massive combination of uppercuts. Della Maddalena pays him back with his own power shots, spraying the blood from Muhammad’s face all around the cage floor. Muhammad uses his pressure to push on Della Maddalena and try to take him down, and he aims a knee to the dome that is legal while Della Maddalena is leaned over. Della Maddalena succeeds in defending the takedown and spins his man around, and Muhammad breaks and lets loose a short stream of uppercuts. Della Maddalena walks him down, walks through an uppercut and ignores a jab so that he can measure his own shots. Muhammad swings wildly with a right hand and back fist after it, and Maddalena jabs and dodges. Muhammad shoots for a double, and Della Maddalena shuts him down and turns Muhammad to the wire. Muhammad spins him around and looks for a head kick up close, but he cannot keep Della Maddalena on the fence. A left hand from Muhammad blows open Della Maddalena’s cauliflower ear, and Della Maddalena responds with a right hand. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 5
Muhammad plods forward to commence the final frame, taking a deep breath and jabbing Della Maddalena around the cage. Muhammad rips a kick to the body, and he swings punches that bang into his foe’s forehead. Muhammad keeps heavy pressure, dodging a one-two and coming out swinging with a pair of right hooks. Della Maddalena staggers him with three left hands, and he skips to the side and intercepts Muhammad with a vicious knee that shreds a cut open on the corner of Muhammad’s eye. Rather than think about it, he blasts Della Maddalena with a counter, and he shoots for a takedown and finally lands it. Positioning himself in half guard, Muhammad smothers with his shoulder pressing the Aussie down. The champ hammers down with ground-and-pound, his blood covering Della Maddalena’s chest, which allows him to slip around and explode back to his feet. Della Maddalena’s eye swells up quickly from the damage inflicted, and Muhammad runs at him with his fists flying. Della Maddalena backs him off for a second with a front kick, and they proceed to hack at one another with elbows. Della Maddalena clubs the champion with a left, a right and a few more punches as he has “Remember the Name” rocked. Della Maddalena clinches up for a second before letting loose with body shots, and he tries a takedown and gets thrown to the ground. Muhammad scrambles to push Della Maddalena to his back, where he frantically lashes out with punches and elbows. Della Maddalena protects himself by putting his head between Muhammad’s legs, and he bursts back to his feet. Muhammad leans him against the cage and tries to get him down, but Della Maddalena pushes him away and kicks him in the head. The Aussie drills Muhammad with a punch combo that staggers him badly, but he peels back rather than trying to finish the job. He re-engages, and Muhammad is ready for him throwing hammers. Della Maddalena does the same right to the final bell, and the two welterweights go the distance in a thriller that few expected would turn out this way. There may be a new champion crowned, but either way, Muhammad shed part of his reputation of being boring with that 25-minute banger.
The scores are read, and just like that, the Muhammad era is over before he could defend it once. Australia has a new champion in the form of hard-nosed brawler Della Maddalena, who stepped up to the plate and exceeded all expectations with that performance. The Contender Series has another champion from its ranks, with Della Maddalena pushing his phenomenal win streak to 18 thanks to his likely bonus-winning battle. Because of this result, lightweight king Islam Makhachev is going to move up and be the first to challenge Della Maddalena soon, while Ilia Topuria takes on Charles Oliveira—possibly for an interim title—on International Fight Week. The confident new champion declares that he will "get one back for Volk" against Makhachev. We will be here for those terrific matchups, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (48-47 Della Maddalena)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)
The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad to defend his belt, trusting his wrestling and control. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down seven times by Gilbert Burns and survived by a lucky knee. He hopes Belal fights like he did against Wonderboy (wrestle-heavy) rather than standing. He mentions the line is tightening and suggests waiting to bet. He also notes that if Belal wins, it sets up Ilia vs Islam at International Fight Week.
Big Brady is confident in Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling and fight IQ. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down eight times by an aging Gilbert Burns and struggled with Basil Hafez. He believes Muhammad will wrestle despite claiming otherwise, and predicts a decision win. He thinks the only way Muhammad loses is if he fights a horrible game plan.
Connor picks Belal Muhammad but with hesitation, expressing concern that Belal lacks the athletic escape ropes to get out of trouble against JDM. He notes that JDM has a habit of violently winning fights he is losing, and that Belal's wrestling may not be a reliable get-out-of-jail card. However, he ultimately believes Belal's game planning and durability will allow him to win a narrow decision.
The host views this as a favorable matchup for Muhammad after Rakhmonov's injury. He believes Muhammad's grappling, high pressure, and pace will be too much for Della Maddalena, keeping him on the defensive. He expects Muhammad to set up his grappling and grind out a decision victory.
The MMA Guru picks JDM, citing his finishing potential, ability to separate and scramble, and work with Craig Jones. He believes JDM's forward pressure and body shots will trouble Belal, who he thinks is overrated after the Leon Edwards win. He predicts a second-round TKO, noting JDM's 17-fight win streak and Belal's inactivity.
Zane picks Belal Muhammad, arguing that Belal is a great game planner who can work around Jack Della Maddalena's limited game. He notes that Belal has successfully game-planned against many different styles, and while JDM is a dangerous puncher, Belal's durability and ability to rebuild after adversity will carry him. Zane acknowledges that Belal may only need one takedown per round to win rounds and retain his title.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 47 of 71 | 66% | 89 of 114 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 7:11 |
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 68 of 121 | 56% | 192 of 281 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 12:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 25 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 51 of 75 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 17 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 27 of 39 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 19 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:18 |
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 9 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:30 |
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 21 of 30 | 70% | 62 of 82 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:17 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 18 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:44 |
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 43 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 47 of 71 | 66% | 32 of 53 | 12 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 35 of 58 | 6 of 7 | 6 of 6 |
| Leon Edwards | 68 of 121 | 56% | 59 of 110 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 62 of 111 | 0 of 4 | 6 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 15 of 21 | 71% | 7 of 12 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Leon Edwards | 17 of 34 | 50% | 14 of 31 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 11 of 16 | 68% | 8 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Leon Edwards | 13 of 22 | 59% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Leon Edwards | 4 of 9 | 44% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 6 of 10 | 60% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Leon Edwards | 21 of 30 | 70% | 18 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 13 of 20 | 65% | 11 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 |
| Leon Edwards | 13 of 26 | 50% | 11 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Leon Edwards to win, citing Edwards' sharper striking and takedown defense. He notes that Belal Muhammad's wrestling pressure could be a factor, but expects Edwards to defend takedowns and frustrate Belal as the fight goes on. Angelo admits he will be rooting for Belal but believes Edwards is the more proven champion. He also mentions that Belal has been training with the Dagestani wrestlers and could maul Edwards, but still leans Edwards.
Cody believes Belal Muhammad is a talented generalist who can adapt his game plan to any opponent. He points out that Belal has shown different wrinkles, such as out-striking Gilbert Burns and Shawn Brady, and that his wrestling and pressure will be key. Cody notes that Leon Edwards has a history of dropping later rounds, as seen against Colby Covington and Rafael dos Anjos, and that Belal's volume and pace could overwhelm Leon in the championship rounds. He also mentions that Belal is at his best now, while Leon's previous opponents were past their prime.
Daniel argues that the first fight was not a domination, citing no knockdowns, no 10-8 round, and a close strike count. He believes Belal's relentless pace, high output, and ability to pressure will overwhelm Leon, who has shown fatigue in later rounds. He also notes that Belal is undervalued by the market and has consistently been a profitable underdog. He acknowledges Leon's kicking threat but thinks Belal can close distance and make it a dirty fight.
Daniel argues that Belal Muhammad has improved significantly since the first fight, citing dominant wins over Shawn Brady and Gilbert Burns. He believes Leon Edwards has not looked better since winning the title, coasting against Colby Covington and a diminished Kamaru Usman. He emphasizes Belal's newfound wrestling focus and improved striking reads, predicting he will overwhelm Edwards. He also advises waiting on Belal's line as it may drift further due to public sentiment against Belal's trash talk.
Jeff picks Leon Edwards, noting he looked good in the brief first fight and has been improving since winning the belt. He acknowledges Edwards' recent opponents (Covington, Usman, Diaz) are not elite, but still trusts the champion's development. He believes Edwards' reads and feints were working before the eye poke and expects him to handle Belal's pressure.
Paul favors Leon Edwards, citing his speed, slickness, and striking advantage. He argues that Leon was winning the first fight before the eye poke and has improved his takedown defense, as seen against Colby Covington. Paul believes Belal's power doesn't scare him and that Leon will win most exchanges on the feet. He also notes that Belal's path to victory relies on takedowns and control, but Leon has made strides in those areas.
The MMA Guru picks Leon Edwards by TKO in round two. He believes Edwards is a level above Belal Muhammad, as shown in their first fight where Edwards had success before the head kick. The Guru notes Edwards' reach advantage, distance management, and improved takedown defense from training with wrestlers like Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington. He thinks Muhammad will be hesitant and that Edwards will land a punch for the finish. He also mentions Muhammad's PED use as a concern but still favors Edwards.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 132 of 283 | 46% | 132 of 283 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 81 of 147 | 55% | 81 of 147 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 15 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 25 of 59 | 42% | 25 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 28 of 54 | 51% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 42 of 80 | 52% | 42 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 132 of 283 | 46% | 92 of 241 | 39 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 132 of 283 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 81 of 147 | 55% | 35 of 96 | 13 of 16 | 33 of 35 | 81 of 147 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 19 of 39 | 48% | 9 of 29 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 15 of 31 | 48% | 7 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 18 of 51 | 35% | 11 of 44 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 15 of 28 | 53% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 25 of 59 | 42% | 20 of 53 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 14 of 22 | 63% | 7 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 28 of 54 | 51% | 18 of 44 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 16 of 23 | 69% | 6 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 42 of 80 | 52% | 34 of 71 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 42 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 21 of 43 | 48% | 9 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-125), Muhammad (+105)
Round 1
A rarity in the promotion the last several years, the UFC is offering up an official “title eliminator” status for a fight. This comes at 170 pounds, between two excelling talents who are stringing win streaks together at the right time. While many believe Muhammad (22-3, 1 NC; 13-3, 1 NC UFC) should have gotten a title shot already, he will look to push his unbeaten streak to 10 when he collides with brick-fisted grappler Burns (22-5, 15-5 UFC). The two will have five rounds to work, even with no championship or main event status available. This short-notice tilt will receive oversight from referee Keith Peterson, and there is no nonsense or touching of gloves to start things off. Chants for “Let’s go, Burns” rain down immediately in the building, and Burns is spurred into action with a charging right hand. Muhammad absorbs a low kick and looks to find angles and get to Burns with his footwork. Muhammad ricochets a kick off his opponent’s raised guard, and he sneaks a left hand through it. Burns loads up on his power right hand, and Muhammad darts away and aims out a jab. Another solid right from the Brazilian connects square on the chin, and Muhammad backs off and eats a leg kick to follow. Burns flicks a kick up high off the raised guard, and he sneaks a right hand through. Muhammad retaliates with a shin to the ribs, and Burns intercepts a subsequent kick to tackle his man to the mat. Muhammad climbs right back up and strikes a few more kicks to the liver, and he dodges a swatting left hook. Muhammad stays composed and utilizes his jab effectively, mixing in kicks occasionally to stay busier. Burns comes up short on a winging hook, and he kicks the body. Muhammad counters with a straight left hand that staggers Burns, and Burns grits his teeth and slams his right fist into Muhammad’s jaw twice to make “Remember the Name” remember his power. Burns has a kick caught, and he scrambles out of the way before getting dumped to the floor. Burns goes up high with a kick, and Burns stumbles back right as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 2
The second frame kicks off as the two welterweights meet in the middle, and Burns strikes first with a stomping kick to the kneecap. Muhammad strafes to his right, and Burns follows him with a kick to the inside of the knee. Burns comes up short with a right hook, allowing Muhammad to sink in another liver kick. Burns chambers and fires a low kick and a massive right hand, and Muhammad’s beard absorbs it without much issue. Muhammad whips a high kick up, and he aims one to the body as Burns retaliates low to the inner calf. Burns paws away a one-two, and he gathers his thoughts to blast Muhammad in the face with a power right. Muhammad replies with a blocked head kick, and Burns hops around to shake it out. Muhammad is far less active, as Burns steps in with a right. The jabs from Muhammad are less constant, and Burns stings him with a right hand on the temple. Muhammad flashes his jab a few times, and Burns walks into one and storms forward. Muhammad times a body kick, and Burns gives him one to the calf back. Burns fires off a short right hand when Muhammad bears down on him, and he lets go with an inside low kick. Muhammad rips a kick to the side, and Burns surges into action and has a right hand slide off the shoulder. Burns lets fly a low kick, and he dodges a zipping left hand. Muhammad gives chase, and his fists collide with the guard. The slower round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 3
The round begins with a body kick from the Brazilian, and Muhammad retaliates with a front kick that grazes the cup. There is no pause, as Burns waves it off, and the crowd grows restless from the otherwise lack of action in the first minute. Muhammad gets off a jab or two, and Burns chambers his right hand and blocks a head kick. Burns gets off a single jab of his own, and he steps back from a looping punch. Burns kicks the lead leg a few times, and he stumbles when walking forward. Muhammad fires off a high kick that smacks into a shoulder, and Burns swings and misses wit ha haymaker. The pace is very deliberate and ineffective on both sides, and Muhammad throws two punches at a time if he can. Burns backs off, and Muhammad follows him with a head kick that bounces off the shoulder and a few straight punches. Burns tags him with a big right hand, and Muhammad shakes it off and sneaks a kick under Burns’ elbow. Burns steps in with a knee to the chest, and he gets kicked in the neck for his effort. The Brazilian appears no worse for wear, and he backs away when Muhammad jabs and front kicks at him. Burns throws a high body kick that smacks into the armpit, and Muhammad chains two kicks together with his left leg. Muhammad jabs quickly when Burns races forward, and he stays active with kicks. Muhammad gets into his groove of head kicks and jabs, stifling Burns. “Durinho” swings and misses with his right, and Muhammad makes him pay with a body shot. The tepid round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 4
Between rounds, Burns appears to be struggling with his left arm, and he complains to his corner that he cannot use it. Despite this, the championship rounds are upon them, and Burns’ body language and face show he is not having a good time in the cage. Muhammad compounds this by starting off Round 4 with a body kick and a few punches, and Burns blinks hard and drills Muhammad with a right hand on the jaw. Muhammad shakes it targets the same spot on the ribs with one more kick. Burns shells up as Muhammad kicks his body, and Burns replies with one of his own. Muhammad narrowly blocks a head kick in time, with Burns surprising him with the sudden strike. Muhammad stutter-steps his way into action, with a one-two off the guard as he leans back from a home run punch soaring at him. Burns drops down to snatch up a single, and he nails Muhammad with a blistering right hand that gives Muhammad a little wobble. Burns celebrates this with a body kick, a knee to the body and a leg kick, and he backs Muhammad away with a feint. Burns considers another single, and he abandons it because he cannot use his arm to secure it. Muhammad kicks high to the hurt arm, and Burns grimaces. Seeing this, Muhammad attacks it again with a kick up high. Muhammad shrugs off a leg kick to the inside of his knee, and he fires off two kicks to the shoulder. Burns blocks the strikes that come at him, and he splits a right hand down the pipe that shakes Muhammad up again. Muhammad weathers it and goes to jab, and the round ends with the crowd booing the welterweights.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 5
A dejected Burns is able to come out of his corner to start the last round, and a corner stoppage would not be out of the question given Burns condition. This sport rarely allows for such a courtesy, and the last round begins. Burns blocks an early head kick and loops two right hands over the top. Burns drops down for a takedown, and he abandons it and absorbs a few kicks to the head and body. Muhammad reaches his foe with a lunging right, and he is out of range when Burns attempts his overhand right. Burns is caught with a right hand coming in, and he wobbles back but gathers his balance. Muhammad punishes the ribs with the umpteenth kick to that same target, and Burns toughs it out. They both clash together with their fists, and Muhammad is the one to land better and backs Burns away. Burns secures a leg kick to buckle Muhammad’s knee for a second, but Muhammad speedily recovers and he takes another. Burns leaps in with a few rights, and Muhammad counters and fearlessly walks Burns down. Muhammad leans back from the obligatory right hook and tags him with a few punches, and he sees the telegraphed bomb and dodges it again. Burns knocks Muhammad back with his right, only for Muhammad to step in front of him and connect with a one-two. Burns swings and misses with two missiles that are right hands, with his left completely out of the picture in this fight other than as a blocking limb. They both trade heavy fire, and Muhammad darts out of harm’s way when Burns looks to reach him. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Muhammad kicks high and then aims one to the body, and the disappointing 25-minute affair comes to a merciful conclusion. The two immediately hug it out after the bell rings, and Muhammad should finally have done enough to earn a crack at the 170-pound throne.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (50-45 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)
The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling pressure and improved striking. He notes that Gilbert Burns is coming off a quick turnaround (fought three weeks ago) and that fighters in that situation often lose. Angelo believes Belal's wrestling pace will overwhelm Burns, and he questions Burns' submission threat off his back. He has a quarter unit on Belal at +105, noting the line has tightened from Burns being a big favorite.
Big Brady picks Muhammad in this five-round fight. He believes Burns is the better striker early with more power, but Muhammad's cardio, pressure, and volume will wear Burns down in the later rounds. He notes Burns has questionable cardio and chin, and Muhammad has excellent takedown defense and get-up game. He predicts Muhammad will weather the early storm and finish Burns late, possibly by fourth-round TKO.
Cody emphasizes that the five-round format heavily favors Belal Muhammad's proven cardio and durability over Gilbert Burns, who has questionable gas tank. He notes Belal's high ring IQ, ability to adjust game plans (lateral movement vs Luque, forward pressure vs Brady), and that Burns' recent wins are over older or less dangerous opponents. He expects Belal to survive early rounds and take over late, making the underdog line attractive.
Connor also picks Muhammad, agreeing that Burns is uncomfortable under pressure and that Muhammad's jab will be key. He notes that Muhammad is a smart fighter who sticks to his game plan and that Burns' wrestling may not be a decisive factor. Connor expresses concern about Muhammad's short notice but trusts his conditioning.
The host picks Belal Muhammad, citing his pace, pressure, and cardio as key advantages over Gilbert Burns. He believes Muhammad's grappling-heavy style, similar to Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, will wear down Burns, who has cardio issues. He expects Muhammad to finish Burns in the fourth or fifth round, and notes that the plus 120 odds look easy.
Paul initially leaned toward Gilbert Burns but changed his mind after realizing the fight is five rounds, which makes the line more reasonable. He notes Burns' quick turnaround and Belal's experience fighting after Ramadan without issue. He says he's 'leaning ever so slightly towards Belal' because of the five rounds, but thinks the market has it right and it's a close fight.
The Guru confidently picks Burns, citing his peak physical condition from fighting frequently and his power advantage on the feet. He believes Burns will set traps and land big shots as Belal comes forward, and that Belal's takedowns won't worry Burns due to his jiu-jitsu. He also questions Belal's mindset and weight cut, noting Belal's complaints and inconsistent weight claims. He predicts a TKO via right hand against the cage.
Zane picks Muhammad, emphasizing that Burns tends to destruct under pressure and that Muhammad's jab-centric striking is a great weapon against Burns' catch-and-counter style. He notes that Muhammad is adaptable and well-prepared, and that Burns' recent performance against Masvidal was uninspiring. Zane also mentions that the five-round fight favors Muhammad's cardio and pressure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 80 of 209 | 38% | 80 of 209 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Brady | 0 | 58 of 118 | 49% | 58 of 118 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 26 of 80 | 32% | 26 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Brady | 0 | 25 of 62 | 40% | 25 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 54 of 129 | 41% | 54 of 129 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Brady | 0 | 33 of 56 | 58% | 33 of 56 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 80 of 209 | 38% | 64 of 183 | 11 of 19 | 5 of 7 | 79 of 206 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Brady | 58 of 118 | 49% | 40 of 98 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 14 | 57 of 117 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 26 of 80 | 32% | 18 of 66 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 26 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Brady | 25 of 62 | 40% | 15 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 54 of 129 | 41% | 46 of 117 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 53 of 126 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Brady | 33 of 56 | 58% | 25 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 32 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-145), Muhammad (+125)
Round 1
Headlining the prelims is a welterweight matchup that could easily and comfortably headliner any UFC Fight Night or ESPN-run event. For a possible shot at the logjammed welterweight throne, Muhammad (21-3, 1 NC; 12-3, 1 NC UFC) and his eight-fight unbeaten streak run up against Brady (15-0, 5-0 UFC), who has never dropped a pro fight. Someone will take a rough loss, barring something unexpected, and referee Lukasz Bosacki will be there for it. The 170ers have a strange bit of bad blood between them and decide not to touch ‘em up, and instead Muhammad comes out aggressively to push the pace on the undefeated fighter. Muhammad scores a left hand down the pipe, and Brady looks to swipe back at him and only lands a calf kick. Muhammad keeps moving forward and clips Brady with a right hand, and he retreats as Brady races forward. Brady works the lead leg with kicks, and he walks into a knee and forces Muhammad to fall over. When Muhammad stands, Brady gives him a shove to put him back to his seat but does not follow him down. Brady allows him to stand so that he can bust him in the chops with a right hand, and he gets a few punches off that get Muhammad’s attention. Muhammad keeps coming forward as he lines up a head kick, and Brady backs him away with a high body kick. Muhammad kicks the leg, and Brady changes levels in pursuit of a takedown but it is nowhere close to materializing. Brady backs off and whips a high kick up fast, and when it is guarded, he follows it with a clean right hand over the top. Muhammad pins a one-two on the chin, and Brady counters him to make him take a step back. Brady gets tagged with a short combination, and he blocks a head kick that follows. Muhammad gets out a left hand and the two start trading, with Brady landing flush and Muhammad giving it right back to him. Muhammad connects with a heavy right hand that draws some swelling under Brady’s right eye, and Brady shoots in from a distance and does not draw out a reaction. Muhammad walks him down and starts throwing hands, and Brady replies with a left hand that opens a cut on the side of Muhammad’s right eye. The horn sounds awkwardly, and the razor-close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 2
The pace from Muhammad does not relent as the second round begins, continuously pressing forward as Brady sits down on counters. The welterweight contenders trade low kicks, and Brady shoots and is stopped in his tracks. Brady gets off a sharp left hook that splits the guard, and he smacks Muhammad in the nose with a front kick. Brady gets off another left hook as Muhammad is walking him down, and he kicks the body to give Muhammad momentary pause. Muhammad sticks out a jab that reddens the nose, and Brady lines up a one-two that shakes Muhammad up. Muhammad keeps his fists in Brady’s face, and the nose starts to leak from the offense. Brady jumps forward, mixing punches with kicks, and Muhammad stands firm in front of him and responds with a blocked head kick. Brady leaps forward with a powerful left hook, and he celebrates his work with a low single that gets stuffed by “Remember the Name.” Muhammad lands two punches as Brady prepares and connects with a counter, and he gets rocked with a short left hand. Muhammad blinks it out and fires back with a venomous right hand, and he uses several jabs to back Brady up. A Brady entry is tossed aside, and they trade jabs as Muhammad begins to unload on his punches. They kick at the same time, and Muhammad falls to the mat and jumps back up. A shovel uppercut from the Philadelphia native gets through, and he tries to get off a combination but has his bell rung by Muhammad. Muhammad pours it on with combinations, and he hurts Brady and puts him on the proverbial ropes. Muhammad continues his bombardment of unanswered punches as he batters Brady on the wall, and Brady is in big trouble and leans over from taking punishment. Muhammad stays right in his face, pounding on him with an assault of fiery fists. Brady tries to keep Muhammad honest with a heavy counter or two, but Muhammad will not relent as he drills Brady in the face again and again. The seemingly unending barrage of blows continues until Movahedi dives in to call it a standing TKO, and Brady immediately protests although he was in a bad, bad way. “Remember the Name” makes the crowd remember his name as he moves his unbeaten streak to nine, while handing Brady his first defeat as a professional. Muhammad declares that he fought down to face Brady, and that it is time to fight up – calling out champion Leon Edwards or Khamzat Chimaev for future opportunities.
The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Sean Brady R2 4:47 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad despite admitting it goes against his gut. He believes Belal's constant pressure and wrestling volume will be the difference, as Sean Brady has cardio issues and tends to slow down. He compares it to the Maximov vs Malkoun fight, where constant shooting won the day.
Big Brady picks the underdog Belal Muhammad to win by decision. He questions Brady's takedown defense (87% but untested) and notes Brady slowed down in the Chiesa and McGee fights. Muhammad has superior cardio, volume, and takedown defense (91%). He expects Muhammad to have success in the striking as the fight goes on and win a decision.
Cody picks Belal as an underdog, citing his relentless pace, excellent cardio, and underrated wrestling. He notes Belal's takedowns against top competition and his solid chin. Cody thinks Brady's striking is better but Belal can grind him down. He also mentions the Abu Dhabi factor and Khabib's help.
Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad to win, calling it 'first L time' for Sean Brady. He praises Belal's fight IQ, cardio, and ability to adapt, noting he stuffed 20 takedowns against Damian Maia and overcame adversity against Vicente Luque. Levi thinks Belal's preparation with Khabib Nurmagomedov will help him deal with Brady's top control. He believes Belal will pull away in the second and third rounds. Levi bet 2 units at +116.
Brady is very difficult to take down, with only one takedown allowed in four UFC fights. He transitions well from takedown attempts to back control, as seen against Chiesa. Muhammad's wrestling-heavy style may not work, and Brady's power striking could land. Brady by decision at +150 is a solid play.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Belal's smart game plan and ability to stick to it. He mentions Belal's grappling success against Vicente Luque and that Brady hasn't been tested against top competition. Paul likes the plus money and picks Belal.
The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady over Belal Muhammad, despite Brady being a favorite. He believes Brady's grappling threat will stifle Belal's stand-up, similar to the Damian Maia fight. He notes Brady's improvements, including a grappling match with Craig Jones, and predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision, with Brady winning the first two rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 84 of 184 | 45% | 102 of 203 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 60 of 155 | 38% | 136 of 260 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 7:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 9 of 33 | 27% | 35 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 24 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 21 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 13 of 44 | 29% | 41 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 84 of 184 | 45% | 54 of 141 | 6 of 17 | 24 of 26 | 80 of 179 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Vicente Luque | 60 of 155 | 38% | 51 of 141 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 56 of 149 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 14 of 37 | 37% | 8 of 26 | 1 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Vicente Luque | 9 of 33 | 27% | 5 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 15 of 35 | 42% | 5 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 16 of 30 | 53% | 14 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 24 of 46 | 52% | 19 of 39 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Vicente Luque | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 20 of 41 | 48% | 15 of 34 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 13 of 44 | 29% | 10 of 41 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 11 of 25 | 44% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 13 of 27 | 48% | 13 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad as an underdog, citing Belal's wrestling and fight IQ. He notes that Vicente Luque is dangerous on the feet and has submissions, but Belal can take him down and control the fight. He references Luque's fight with Kiesa where Kiesa had success taking Luque down but got too aggressive. Angelo believes Belal will stick to a wrestling game plan and win a decision.
Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win, likely by finish. He notes that Luque is dangerous everywhere—on the feet and on the mat—and that Belal Muhammad's wrestling, while improved against Stephen Thompson, may not be enough to control Luque. He points out that Muhammad struggled to take down Diego Lima (1 for 10) and that Luque has solid takedown defense and submission threats. Brady expects Luque to hurt Muhammad and finish him in the second or third round.
Cody picks Luque but with hesitation, noting Belal's impressive wrestling against Wonderboy. He worries about Luque's cardio in a five-round fight and his takedown defense. However, he believes Luque's hand speed and striking will be key, and that Belal's record is deceiving. He sees danger if Belal extends the fight into later rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad as a +155 underdog, emphasizing Belal's ability to adapt game plans, as seen against Stephen Thompson (wrestling) and Demian Maia (striking). He notes Belal's improved lateral movement, feints, and cardio, which should allow him to survive early danger and take over in championship rounds. Levi acknowledges Vicente Luque's elite finishing ability (second most finishes in welterweight history) and the danger of his calf kicks, left hook, and d'arce choke, but believes Belal's discipline, chain wrestling, and refusal to rush submissions will be key. He is concerned about Belal fighting during Ramadan but notes he has done so before and sounded sharp in interviews. Levi states he is biased due to his friendship with Belal but insists his analysis is objective.
Paul favors Vicente Luque, citing his power, finishing ability, and danger in guard if taken down. He notes Luque trains with many wrestlers and believes his striking is superior. He acknowledges Belal's wrestling but thinks Luque's path to victory is clearer, especially with a potential finish.
The MMA Guru picks Belal Muhammad despite being a big Vicente Luque fan. He believes Muhammad's volume and grappling will disrupt Luque's timing, and that Luque hates volume. He expects Muhammad to wear Luque down and submit him in the fourth or fifth round via rear-naked choke. He also accuses Muhammad of using steroids, citing his physique change.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 51 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 58 of 95 | 61% | 171 of 271 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 1 | 0 | 11:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 28 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 44 of 72 | 61% | 64 of 111 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 42 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:11 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 65 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 19 of 32 | 59% | 14 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Stephen Thompson | 58 of 95 | 61% | 56 of 92 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 55 of 84 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 10 of 16 | 62% | 8 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Stephen Thompson | 44 of 72 | 61% | 42 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 41 of 64 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 7 of 11 | 63% | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 10 of 16 | 62% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In this pivotal co-main event, renowned karateka “Wonderboy” Thompson (16-5-1, 11-5-1 UFC) will try to keep his place in the top echelon of the welterweight division. Against him will be Muhammad (19-3, 1 NC; 10-3, 1 NC UFC), who will aim to find the secret of his power. Herb Dean will be the referee for this interesting stylistic clash, and the fighters are happy to touch gloves in a good show of sportsmanship. Thompson is quick to get to his signature style, staying out of range and backing off with kicks to the body and up high. Muhammad eats a hook kick in the face, and he shrugs it off so that he can shoot in for a double. “Wonderboy” stops it from succeeding and stings Muhammad with a left hand, and Muhammad is suddenly in trouble. Thompson spins with a kick that clatters off Muhammad’s dome, and he wears it well and blocks a few strikes that come at him. Thompson jumps forward with a strike, and Muhammad manages to power through and go for a takedown. Grabbing Thompson by his waist as they are both on their seats, they begin to slug it out from close range like a seated version of Frye vs. Takayama. After they continue to trade punches, Thompson walks his way back up using the fence, and he shucks off a standing guillotine try from Muhammad. Tight in the clinch, Thompson rips a few knees up high until Muhammad snags hold of a single to put Thompson down. “Wonderboy” manages to land on a knee so he is not flat down, and he grabs the fence to stand back up. Muhammad grapples him from behind, before turning things around to elevate Thompson and put him down. Muhammad lands on Thompson’s back, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke before flattening Thompson out with strikes. “Remember the Name” rains down punches from this advantageous position, pounding on the side of Thompson’s head while Thompson turtles up. Thompson protects himself from the brunt of the strikes that should not merit a stoppage, and he turns to his side as Muhammad continues to work him over from above. A few punches land to the back of the head, and Muhammad bludgeons Thompson relentlessly until the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to start off the second round, and Thompson is the immediate aggressor with side kicks to the face. Thompson slings a high kick with his rear leg, and the kick is blocked but still knocks Muhammad back a step. “Wonderboy” springs in with a strike and dances out of the way, and he lands cleanly to ring Muhammad’s bell. Thompson tees off on Muhammad until Muhammad has had enough of the striking, and he closes in to latch on to Thompson and wrench him down to the mat. Thompson works his way back up, only for Muhammad to lift him up and hold his ankle to put Thompson back down flat on the canvas. The Chicago native gets into half guard, where he isolates Thompson’s right arm to set up a kimura. When that does not succeed, Muhammad begins to batter Thompson’s thigh with elbows. Thompson pulls his arm free, only for Muhammad to continue elbowing the same spot. Thompson edges his way to the wall, and he posts on his knee to stand up as Muhammad torques on his arm for a straight armlock or kimura. Thompson appears to pay it no mind, but he is still trapped on the floor with no way up as precious seconds tick off the clock. Muhammad abandons the grip so that he can turn around and get off ground-and-pound, introducing his elbow to Thompson’s face repeatedly. Thompson eats several of these shots but blocks others, and Muhammad hacks at him with elbows until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 3
Muhammad instantly starts the round with a takedown try, and “Wonderboy” cannot stave him off with a few strikes as Muhammad advances relentlessly. Muhammad lifts Thompson’s leg all the way up in the air before putting Thompson down on the ground, and he ties Thompson’s legs up to keep him trapped. With his arm around Thompson’s back, he is able to smack Thompson in the face with short left hands. The former title challenger bursts back upright, and he fights off a subsequent takedown try with a choke attempt from above. Muhammad doggedly pursues another takedown, and he secures it in the center of the mat to put Thompson down at the midpoint of the final round. Muhammad claims half guard, and he calmly controls his opponent with light but effective ground-and-pound that keeps Dean away from standing them up. “Remember the Name” remembers that he can embrace the grind like the best of them, and he does exactly that, passing to side control and working Thompson over with elbows and hammerfists. Muhammad looks to pass to mount, but “Wonderboy” is able to at least keep that moral victory in his pocket as he is getting thoroughly outworked on the ground. Muhammad slashes Thompson with multiple elbows until the final horn ends this grueling match.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Stephen Thompson via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad with a full unit at +200. He cites recency bias from Gilbert Burns taking Thompson down at will, and believes Muhammad, a wrestling beast, will employ a grapple-heavy game plan. He thinks Muhammad will win a unanimous decision by taking Thompson down repeatedly. Angelo admits it hurts because he loves Wonderboy, but he sees a clear path for Muhammad.
Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He believes Muhammad's takedown accuracy (28%) is not enough to threaten Thompson's takedown defense and get-up game. He acknowledges the smaller cage favors Muhammad but expects Thompson to stuff takedowns and win a convincing decision.
Cody is confident in Thompson, citing his superior striking and distance management. He notes that Muhammad is a generalist without elite skills, and his wins are against lower-level competition. Cody points to the Leon Edwards fight where Muhammad struggled with a fast, lateral-moving striker. He believes Thompson's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing and that he will win by decision, though he acknowledges Muhammad's durability and the possibility of a KO.
Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad as a +200 underdog. He argues that Stephen Thompson has never won a fight in which he was taken down, citing losses to Woodley, Brown, and Burns. Levi notes that in Thompson's wins over Neal and Luque, those opponents attempted zero takedowns combined. He believes Muhammad's relentless wrestling and pressure will be the key, and that Thompson's age (almost 40) is a factor. Levi expects a gritty, ugly fight where Muhammad grinds out a decision or late stoppage.
Jacob picks Stephen Thompson, expecting a boring decision win. He believes Thompson's footwork and karate style will allow him to bounce in and out, point-fight, and avoid takedowns. Jacob thinks if Thompson is taken down, he will get right back up. He cites Thompson's fight with Darren Till where only 71 strikes were landed combined, expecting a similar low-volume striking match.
The host picks Thompson by decision, believing his striking and movement will keep Muhammad at bay. He notes that Muhammad is athletically capped and will struggle to get inside. He leans towards the decision prop around even money.
Paul likes Thompson as the rightful favorite, emphasizing that nobody outstrikes Thompson on the feet. He notes Muhammad's wrestling is not elite and Thompson's takedown defense has improved. Paul expects Thompson to win by decision, as Muhammad has shown durability but can be wobbled, as seen in the Edwards fight.
The MMA Guru picks Stephen Thompson to win by 30-27 decision. He thinks Thompson's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Muhammad. He notes Muhammad struggles to get takedowns against top-level opponents and Thompson stuffed Burns' takedowns. He expects Thompson to out-strike Muhammad easily, though he jokes Thompson is too nice to finish.
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