UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Jan 19, 2019 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw Next Fight
Age 40
Height 5' 6"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age N/A
Height 5' 6"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Joanne Wood
7.1 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.89 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.52 TD Avg
55.0% TD Acc.
58.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Ariane da Silva
4.05 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
4.4 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.47 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Joanne Wood - Fight History
WIN vs Maryna Moroz
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanne Wood 0 136 of 249 54% 173 of 290 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Maryna Moroz 0 102 of 195 52% 156 of 255 1 of 2 50% 0 0 6:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanne Wood 0 4 of 9 44% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maryna Moroz 0 5 of 7 71% 50 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:35
2 Joanne Wood 0 58 of 109 53% 75 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Maryna Moroz 0 45 of 81 55% 52 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:29
3 Joanne Wood 0 74 of 131 56% 77 of 134 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Maryna Moroz 0 52 of 107 48% 54 of 109 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanne Wood 136 of 249 54% 74 of 175 39 of 45 23 of 29 112 of 216 23 of 31 1 of 2
Maryna Moroz 102 of 195 52% 79 of 160 23 of 33 0 of 2 79 of 169 19 of 22 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanne Wood 4 of 9 44% 2 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Maryna Moroz 5 of 7 71% 4 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Joanne Wood 58 of 109 53% 30 of 76 21 of 24 7 of 9 45 of 90 13 of 19 0 of 0
Maryna Moroz 45 of 81 55% 34 of 67 11 of 14 0 of 0 34 of 67 11 of 14 0 of 0
3 Joanne Wood 74 of 131 56% 42 of 95 17 of 19 15 of 17 64 of 118 10 of 12 0 of 1
Maryna Moroz 52 of 107 48% 41 of 87 11 of 18 0 of 2 44 of 99 8 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Angelo leans toward Joanne Wood as a dog, noting she is a technical striker with solid fight IQ and has only lost to ranked fighters. He thinks she can grind out a decision by getting the fight to the cage. He is wary of her age (38) and slowing down, but believes the odds on Moroz are too wide given Wood's experience.

If line moves further, might throw a couple dollars on Wood as a dog.
"I'm going to lean the vet here I'm going to lean Joanne wood I'm going to pick her as a dog obviously she's 38 she's slowing down she is past her prime past her Peak but I think she can …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Maryna Moroz

Big Brady picks Maryna Moroz to win by second-round submission. He notes that Moroz has improved her wrestling and striking since her debut, and that Joanne Wood has been submitted five times in her career, including by Moroz in their first fight. He believes Moroz can get the fight to the mat and tap Wood out, though he acknowledges that Moroz doesn't wrestle often.

win by second round submission
"give me a marina marose I'll take her to win by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Cody thinks Wood is being undervalued as a +190 underdog. He notes that Moroz has poor striking volume and has been taken down in recent fights, while Wood has good volume, clinch work, and takedowns. He expects Wood to win a close decision.

Wood by decision (+325), fight goes to split decision
"I think she comes out and she wins"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maryna Moroz

Daniel picks Moroz but has no confidence. He notes Moroz has good takedowns and if she uses them, she will win. However, she has not attempted takedowns in her last two fights. If it becomes a standup fight, it could go to a split decision. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"I'll pick marose but you know pick and bet are two different things"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Maryna Moroz

Moroz is a solid striker but does her best work when she implements a grapple-heavy approach, controlling from top position and doing damage. She was successful in their first meeting via armbar submission. However, Moroz has been inconsistent and the -225 line is a bit wide for me to trust completely. If she is dialed in and uses her grappling, she should overwhelm the aging Joanne Wood. I expect Moroz to push the pace, drag the fight to the ground, and win by decision.

Moroz by decision
"minus 225 is a little bit wide for me as it's been difficult to completely trust marose to go out there and Implement her effective style uh but if she does she should look the minus 225 so give me …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maryna Moroz

Paul initially leans toward Moroz by submission, noting she submitted Wood in their first fight. However, he acknowledges that Wood has improved her wrestling and that Moroz's recent form is poor. He ultimately passes on betting but notes the submission prop has moved from +400 to +220.

Moroz by submission (+220)
"marose by sub is what has my eyeballs"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Maryna Moroz

The MMA Guru acknowledges this is a tricky fight, noting that Joanne Calderwood has a skill advantage on the feet but is 38 years old. He believes Maryna Moroz's grappling and takedown ability will be the deciding factor, as she is younger and can implement takedowns to sway close rounds. He expresses hesitation but ultimately sides with Moroz due to her grappling edge.

"I'm actually going to take Marina Rodriguez to implement takedowns here and I think that just being able to get takedowns in women's MMA is really going to drastically affect scoring"
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanne Wood 0 131 of 228 57% 177 of 278 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:50
Luana Carolina 0 100 of 199 50% 123 of 222 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanne Wood 0 38 of 62 61% 55 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Luana Carolina 0 38 of 65 58% 42 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
2 Joanne Wood 0 33 of 60 55% 56 of 87 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
Luana Carolina 0 24 of 53 45% 33 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
3 Joanne Wood 0 60 of 106 56% 66 of 112 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:11
Luana Carolina 0 38 of 81 46% 48 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanne Wood 131 of 228 57% 61 of 142 46 of 53 24 of 33 84 of 177 46 of 50 1 of 1
Luana Carolina 100 of 199 50% 55 of 144 34 of 40 11 of 15 75 of 165 25 of 34 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanne Wood 38 of 62 61% 13 of 32 17 of 20 8 of 10 20 of 42 18 of 20 0 of 0
Luana Carolina 38 of 65 58% 15 of 38 16 of 19 7 of 8 25 of 50 13 of 15 0 of 0
2 Joanne Wood 33 of 60 55% 16 of 39 8 of 10 9 of 11 21 of 48 11 of 11 1 of 1
Luana Carolina 24 of 53 45% 14 of 40 9 of 11 1 of 2 18 of 44 6 of 9 0 of 0
3 Joanne Wood 60 of 106 56% 32 of 71 21 of 23 7 of 12 43 of 87 17 of 19 0 of 0
Luana Carolina 38 of 81 46% 26 of 66 9 of 10 3 of 5 32 of 71 6 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Angelo thinks Joanne Wood should win because she is better everywhere and has faced elite competition. He notes her losses are to champions and title contenders. He placed a half-unit bet on her at -150 three weeks ago and got good closing value. He is concerned about Wood's motivation and age but still expects her to win.

bet placed at -150, now -190
"I do think Joanne wood wins this fight three weeks ago I threw a half a unit on her at minus 150."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Big Brady picks Joanne Wood but with low confidence, noting she has looked like she doesn't want to be there recently. He acknowledges Wood's losses are to elite competition, and she should win this fight due to volume striking and Carolina's lack of takedowns. However, he is scared by Wood's recent performances and will not bet this fight.

will not bet this fight
"do I have confidence in Wood no ... but she better win this fight man"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Cody picks Wood reluctantly, noting her experience and technical Muay Thai. He thinks Carolina's takedown defense is poor and Wood can take her down if needed. He acknowledges Wood's durability and motivation are questions at 37, but believes Carolina is there to be beaten. He says he's likely screwed betting women's MMA but picks Wood.

"I will have to take Joanne wood reluctantly not reluctantly because I don't want to reluctantly because I know as soon as I bet an MMA women's MMA spot I'm likely screwed"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Connor picks Wood but is very hesitant, acknowledging her recent mental and physical decline. He believes she should win against a fighter as limited as Carolina, but he doubts Wood's current mindset. He notes that Wood has never been knocked out and has the tools to win if she fights on the front foot.

"I'm gonna stick with a desperation pick for Wood of like you should not lose to a fighter this bad."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Jacob sees this as a very close fight and is staying away. He thinks both fighters have similar styles and it will likely go to a split decision. He notes Luana Carolina could come on strong late and that Joanne Wood's motivation is questionable. He might bet on a split decision prop but is not picking a winner.

split decision prop considered
"I wouldn't pick either side on this I think it's sloppy I think it's back and forth I think it's close comes down to the judges."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Wood is on a three-fight losing streak but those losses came against top competition (Santos, Grasso). She is a solid striker with good footwork, output, and elbows. Carolina is a decent striker but her wins are questionable and she was knocked out by Molly McCann. Wood should be the better technical striker and outwork Carolina over three rounds, possibly mixing in elbows. Carolina's takedowns are not expected to be a threat.

"I think wood will shuck off the inevitable takedowns that are coming our way and she will get back to that game that just has made her so successful in the UFC which is cardio footwork output and throwing in …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Paul picks Wood, but his favorite prop is over 63.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks. He thinks the fight goes 15 minutes and Wood lands well over that number. He says Wood by decision is likely but the moneyline is better than the decision prop. He notes Wood's recent losses were to elite competition and she should handle Carolina.

Joanne Wood over 63.5 significant strikes (PrizePicks)
"on prize picks they've got a promo code dop they got 65 or 63.5 significant strikes love that prop that's like my my favorite prop this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood over Luana Carolina, calling it a 'no-brainer' despite the unpredictability of women's MMA. He notes Wood has lost only to top competition like Grasso, Santos, and Murphy, while Carolina lost to Molly McCann who is not elite. He acknowledges Wood's jiu-jitsu vulnerabilities but believes her striking and experience will carry her to a decision win.

"I'll go with Joanne Calderwood I guess because Luana Carolina lost a Molly McCann"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Zane picks Carolina as a gut pick, citing Wood's psychological fragility. He notes that Wood has looked increasingly flinchy and prone to giving up, while Carolina is scrappy and has shown resilience. Zane believes Carolina's pressure and clinch work could break Wood's will, even though Carolina is technically inferior.

"I'm kind of making a gut pick."
LOSS vs Alexa Grasso
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:57 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexa Grasso 0 34 of 49 69% 61 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joanne Wood 0 16 of 28 57% 50 of 65 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexa Grasso 0 34 of 49 69% 61 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joanne Wood 0 16 of 28 57% 50 of 65 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexa Grasso 34 of 49 69% 22 of 33 4 of 6 8 of 10 32 of 44 0 of 3 2 of 2
Joanne Wood 16 of 28 57% 13 of 25 0 of 0 3 of 3 13 of 24 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexa Grasso 34 of 49 69% 22 of 33 4 of 6 8 of 10 32 of 44 0 of 3 2 of 2
Joanne Wood 16 of 28 57% 13 of 25 0 of 0 3 of 3 13 of 24 2 of 3 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Angelo picks Joanne Wood as a pretty big underdog. He thinks the books are not giving her enough credit. He notes that while Alexa Grasso is undefeated at 125, Wood has only fought top competition and is incredibly well-rounded. He believes Grasso cannot bully or knock out Wood like her previous opponents did.

"i like joanne in this fight she is a pretty big underdog i'm probably gonna shoot my shot"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Big Brady picks Joanne Wood as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He argues that Wood has excellent volume (6.71 significant strikes per minute) and can mix in takedowns, while Grasso has poor takedown defense (60%) and has been taken down by wrestlers like Suarez and Esparza. He notes that Wood's last loss was to Talia Santos, who is a beast, and that Wood looked good before that, including a win over Jessica Eye. He admits Wood might be washed but thinks the line is off.

"I'm actually going to take the dog here... I think this line's like wide wide wide so I'm going to take uh the dog here in joanne wood."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Cody leans Grasso but acknowledges Wood's volume striking and durability. He notes Wood's technical boxing is poor and she gets hit clean, while Grasso lands sharper shots. He mentions Wood's recent losses and age, but thinks the fight could be close. He expects Grasso to win but not confidently.

"i would think grosso probably a little stronger in the clinch up against the cage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Daniel Levi picks Alexa Grasso, emphasizing her improvement since moving up to flyweight, faster hands, and growing confidence. He notes Joanne Wood is hot-and-cold and may have mentally checked out after losing her title shot. He expects Grasso to win but cautions that the line at -235 is steep, and the fight could be a close decision due to poor judging. He suggests betting Grasso only if under -200.

Grasso by decision, under -200 is a play
"I got to have not just the faster hands of grasshopper but the confidence... you got to favor grasso"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

The host picks Grasso but is not confident, citing her lack of finishing ability and the possibility of a close decision. He notes Wood's volume could sway judges if Grasso doesn't land significant strikes. He prefers the 'fight goes to decision' prop over the moneyline.

fight goes to decision at -250; Grasso by decision at -115
"i'm still picking rosso to win she should win this fight but i think the odds are just a little bit too wide on this spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Paul picks Grasso but doesn't love the price. He thinks Wood's volume striking and front kicks could cause problems, but Grasso has improved her grappling and is younger. He sees the fight as close and competitive, possibly a split decision. He wouldn't fault someone for taking Wood as an underdog.

"i'm gonna pick grasso in this spot but i don't love it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

The MMA Guru picks Alexa Grasso over Joanne Wood, calling Grasso a much better boxer with superior hands, defense, footwork, and chin at this stage. He notes Wood's recent KO loss and quick turnaround, and believes Grasso will get a submission win, possibly a d'arce choke, after hurting Wood on the feet. The Guru acknowledges Wood's volume could be a factor but trusts Grasso's technical edge.

submission win
"i'm gonna go with alexa grazo here"
LOSS vs Taila Santos
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:49 · UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · Nov 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Taila Santos 0 27 of 68 39% 30 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joanne Wood 2 30 of 60 50% 36 of 67 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Taila Santos 0 27 of 68 39% 30 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joanne Wood 2 30 of 60 50% 36 of 67 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Taila Santos 27 of 68 39% 8 of 36 3 of 7 16 of 25 26 of 67 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joanne Wood 30 of 60 50% 21 of 46 3 of 7 6 of 7 19 of 42 0 of 0 11 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Taila Santos 27 of 68 39% 8 of 36 3 of 7 16 of 25 26 of 67 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joanne Wood 30 of 60 50% 21 of 46 3 of 7 6 of 7 19 of 42 0 of 0 11 of 18
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Angelo picks Taila Santos, saying she is better than Joanne Wood everywhere. He notes Taila's power, athleticism, and willingness to mix in takedowns, while Wood is technical but less powerful. He expects Taila to cruise to a decision win, though Wood is tough and could make it competitive. He does not bet due to high DraftKings price (9200) and expects a decision.

DraftKings prices: Santos 9200, Wood 7000; monkey knife fight more/more
"tyler's definitely the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Big Brady picks Taila Santos confidently, stating the line is accurate and could be wider. He highlights Santos' phenomenal wrestling and grappling, noting she controlled top grapplers like Jillian Robertson and Roxy Modafferi for long periods. He points out Joanne Wood's 63% takedown defense and age (35), and believes Santos will dominate with takedowns and control. He predicts a one-sided decision.

win by decision
"give me santos to win by a very dominated one-sided decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Cody picks Taila Santos but strongly dislikes the -380 price. He acknowledges Santos's wrestling and grinding style should neutralize Wood's Muay Thai, but he questions the level of competition Santos has faced. He notes that Wood has fought the division's best and has better striking volume. Cody believes Santos wins via grinding against the cage and takedowns, but he would not bet her straight up at that price; he might include her in parlays lower down.

Cody mentions that if he were betting straight up, he might put a little on Wood, but for parlays he will use Santos. He says the line is out of proportion and he doesn't fully buy into it.
"i just don't agree with the price tag i mean if i was betting straight up fights i might be inclined to maybe put a you know what do they call it a little bit of chedda a little bit …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Daniel Levi picks Taila Santos confidently, citing her recent improvements and physicality. He notes that Santos has been looking better each fight, with strong muay Thai and takedown ability. He questions Joanne Wood's mental state, suggesting she may not be fully committed after getting married. Levi believes Santos will be stronger, more physical, and hungrier, and that Wood has a history of being broken mentally.

"i think we're seeing the best tyler santos... i'm not sure mentally that she's still in it like she once was"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Taila Santos

Lock is high on Santos, noting she looked much better in her second UFC fight. He thinks Santos has a grappling advantage and will land takedowns consistently. He also mentions Wood's distractions (recent marriage, talk of retirement) and that she struggles off her back. Lock expects Santos to win by decision at -135.

Taila Santos by decision -135, Joanne Wood by decision +400 (hedge)
"I think tyler santos is the [__] man a lot of people are just dragging her through the mud because of that loss in her ufc debut."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Paul argues that if you think Santos will win, the price shouldn't scare you off. He believes Santos's wrestling and strength advantage will allow her to grind Wood against the cage and render her Muay Thai useless. He thinks Santos wins at least 6-7 out of 10 times, which justifies the -380 line. He criticizes the mentality of flipping a pick based on odds and sticks with Santos as the winner.

"if someone came up to me with just a bout sheet there's no odds right it's just about cheap 12 fights and said who do you think is going to win well i would circle taylor santos"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood as an underdog over Taila Santos. He argues that Santos's stand-up is not great and she hasn't dominated on the ground against top competition. He highlights Wood's experience against top flyweights, including wins over Lauren Murphy and Andrea Lee, and argues she was robbed in some losses. He expects Wood to outland Santos on the feet and win by unanimous decision (30-27).

"i'm going to go with joanne caudle as a cowderwood as an underdog here"
LOSS vs Lauren Murphy
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 80 of 148 54% 121 of 195 1 of 6 16% 0 0 4:54
Joanne Wood 0 123 of 228 53% 153 of 259 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 29 of 57 50% 40 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:39
Joanne Wood 0 55 of 97 56% 64 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Lauren Murphy 0 16 of 22 72% 43 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:15
Joanne Wood 0 9 of 17 52% 26 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Lauren Murphy 0 35 of 69 50% 38 of 72 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Joanne Wood 0 59 of 114 51% 63 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 80 of 148 54% 66 of 131 14 of 17 0 of 0 55 of 119 10 of 13 15 of 16
Joanne Wood 123 of 228 53% 62 of 137 30 of 41 31 of 50 99 of 201 23 of 25 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 29 of 57 50% 25 of 51 4 of 6 0 of 0 26 of 52 3 of 5 0 of 0
Joanne Wood 55 of 97 56% 22 of 50 16 of 22 17 of 25 43 of 85 12 of 12 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 16 of 22 72% 14 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 16
Joanne Wood 9 of 17 52% 4 of 9 1 of 3 4 of 5 8 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Lauren Murphy 35 of 69 50% 27 of 60 8 of 9 0 of 0 28 of 61 7 of 8 0 of 0
Joanne Wood 59 of 114 51% 36 of 78 13 of 16 10 of 20 48 of 101 11 of 13 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Big Brady picks Joanne Wood, citing her significant striking volume and accuracy advantage. He is concerned about Wood's takedown defense (58%) and the possibility of Murphy grinding out rounds with control time. He expects a competitive fight but ultimately sees Wood out-striking Murphy to a decision win.

Wood by decision
"i will ultimately take jojo calderwood to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Cody leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing her strength, grit, and takedown ability. He thinks she can grind out a decision if she mixes in takedowns. He notes Calderwood's tendency to fall apart in big spots and her poor takedown defense.

"lauren murphy plus 130 is where i would attack this"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy for the upset, citing her toughness and will to win. He acknowledges Joanne Wood is more talented but inconsistent. He notes Murphy's takedowns have improved and that Wood has a history of poor performances. He expects a close fight and thinks Murphy's durability and pressure will edge out a split decision.

split decision
"i'll go with lauren murphy for the upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Joanne Wood

Wood is faster and a better striker, with superior Muay Thai and combinations. Murphy is stronger and may try to clinch, but Wood should outstrike her at range. Murphy doesn't take damage well, and Wood's speed should allow her to land cleanly. Wood likely wins a decision, though Murphy's strength is a slight concern.

Wood by decision
"I do like Joanne Wood again I think she's a little bit better all around... I do have some solid confidence in Joanne Wood to go out there and outstrike Lauren Murphy for the majority of 15 minutes and take …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Paul picks Calderwood but is not betting it. He thinks Calderwood's striking and reach advantage will be key, and that she can keep the fight standing and outpoint Murphy. He acknowledges Murphy's toughness but believes Calderwood's technical skills will prevail.

"the official pick is going to be joanne calderwood but from a betting perspective i think i'm just looking to pass"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood, stating she looks technically sound with good knees in the clinch, while Murphy does not look good technically. He notes Wood's recent performance against Jessica Eye and believes Wood's technical edge will be decisive. He dismisses Murphy's wins as unimpressive.

"i'm going with joanne calderwood i've watched the pair of them fight"
WIN vs Jessica Eye
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanne Wood 0 77 of 173 44% 104 of 218 1 of 4 25% 0 0 5:03
Jessica Eye 0 148 of 240 61% 214 of 319 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanne Wood 0 30 of 56 53% 41 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:01
Jessica Eye 0 48 of 81 59% 69 of 104 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Joanne Wood 0 37 of 87 42% 44 of 95 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
Jessica Eye 0 65 of 113 57% 81 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:01
3 Joanne Wood 0 10 of 30 33% 19 of 51 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:28
Jessica Eye 0 35 of 46 76% 64 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanne Wood 77 of 173 44% 39 of 127 35 of 41 3 of 5 44 of 132 32 of 40 1 of 1
Jessica Eye 148 of 240 61% 52 of 122 53 of 62 43 of 56 113 of 198 35 of 42 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanne Wood 30 of 56 53% 16 of 41 14 of 14 0 of 1 13 of 37 17 of 19 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 48 of 81 59% 18 of 43 16 of 20 14 of 18 37 of 65 11 of 16 0 of 0
2 Joanne Wood 37 of 87 42% 21 of 67 13 of 16 3 of 4 28 of 73 8 of 13 1 of 1
Jessica Eye 65 of 113 57% 22 of 59 24 of 28 19 of 26 53 of 99 12 of 14 0 of 0
3 Joanne Wood 10 of 30 33% 2 of 19 8 of 11 0 of 0 3 of 22 7 of 8 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 35 of 46 76% 12 of 20 13 of 14 10 of 12 23 of 34 12 of 12 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Big Brady picks Joanne Wood (Calderwood) by decision, citing her high output (6.17 significant strikes per minute) and takedown ability. He is hesitant because Wood lost her last fight via submission, and he is not betting on her. He expects a close decision and thinks the fight likely goes to decision.

goes to decision
"i'm going to say calderwood gets it done by decision um i mean i can almost guarantee this goes to decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jessica Eye

Daniel Levi picks Jessica Eye, citing her superior resume with wins over top competition like Katlyn Chookagian and Viviane Araujo. He criticizes Joanne Wood for folding in big fights and being mentally fragile. Levi believes Eye's athleticism and health improvements will lead to a win, possibly by decision.

"i'm going jessica i hear your decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jessica Eye

This is a close fight between two mid-tier flyweights. Eye has good boxing and combinations, and she is not afraid to trade. Wood has volume but lacks power. Eye's durability and willingness to exchange should give her an edge. I think Eye lands the more significant strikes and wins a close decision. At plus money, there is value.

"I'm going with Jessica Eye to win this fight via decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood (Calderwood) to win a close decision, expecting a stand-up fight. He believes Wood's kicking game will be the difference against Jessica Eye's boxing-oriented style. He notes that both fighters are past their prime but gives Wood the edge due to her variety of kicks (leg kicks, knees, head kicks). He does not see either fighter going to the ground and predicts Wood edges every round.

"joanne caldwell is pretty good on the feet she mixes in a lot of kicks i think that's going to be the difference here against a more boxing orientated style"
LOSS vs Jennifer Maia
Submission (armbar) R1 4:29 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · Aug 01, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jennifer Maia 0 26 of 49 53% 33 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:11
Joanne Wood 0 20 of 37 54% 31 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jennifer Maia 0 26 of 49 53% 33 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:11
Joanne Wood 0 20 of 37 54% 31 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jennifer Maia 26 of 49 53% 6 of 25 9 of 9 11 of 15 24 of 45 0 of 1 2 of 3
Joanne Wood 20 of 37 54% 16 of 32 3 of 4 1 of 1 18 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jennifer Maia 26 of 49 53% 6 of 25 9 of 9 11 of 15 24 of 45 0 of 1 2 of 3
Joanne Wood 20 of 37 54% 16 of 32 3 of 4 1 of 1 18 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Big Brady picks Joanne Calderwood (Joanne Wood) to win by decision. He thinks she is the better overall fighter with higher volume striking and improved ground game. He notes that her striking should be sharp because she was preparing to fight Valentina Shevchenko. However, he expresses caution due to recent poor luck betting on women's MMA fights.

"i do like calderwood in this fight quite a bit i think she's a better fighter overall"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Joanne Wood

Daniel picks Joanne Wood, citing her higher output and well-roundedness. He notes that she doesn't have to worry about takedown threats from Maia and should outland her with kicks and volume. He expects a decision win.

decision
"i think joanne's probably gonna win as long as she shows up i feel like she's got so much more output than jennifer maya"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 29, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

The host picks Joanne Wood, citing her evolution in mixing wrestling with striking, and notes that Jennifer Maia has poor get-up game when taken down, as seen in the Alexis Davis fight. He believes Wood will take Maia down and grind out a decision, despite Maia having a slight edge in pure Muay Thai. He also mentions Wood's training at Syndicate MMA and her motivation for a title shot.

"i am gonna go with jojo to win here um -160 again not a bad price tag"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jul 26, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

The host picks Joanne Calderwood (Joanne Wood) but expresses hesitation, noting that neither fighter has beaten elite competition. He believes Calderwood is bigger, stronger, and rangier for the division, and can keep the fight standing where she has a range advantage. He acknowledges the lack of clear evidence but goes with Calderwood due to her physical advantages.

"i'll go with uh joanne caldwood i guess there's really nothing to predict this on i just feel as though joanne calderwood's bigger stronger for the division rangier for the division"
WIN vs Andrea Lee
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Sep 07, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanne Wood 0 101 of 230 43% 158 of 293 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:13
Andrea Lee 0 61 of 137 44% 104 of 185 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanne Wood 0 41 of 92 44% 44 of 95 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Andrea Lee 0 32 of 71 45% 38 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:25
2 Joanne Wood 0 24 of 58 41% 54 of 92 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:52
Andrea Lee 0 17 of 33 51% 36 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:03
3 Joanne Wood 0 36 of 80 45% 60 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:09
Andrea Lee 0 12 of 33 36% 30 of 52 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanne Wood 101 of 230 43% 40 of 138 16 of 38 45 of 54 94 of 222 7 of 8 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 61 of 137 44% 13 of 73 26 of 39 22 of 25 57 of 132 2 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanne Wood 41 of 92 44% 13 of 51 8 of 18 20 of 23 40 of 91 1 of 1 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 32 of 71 45% 6 of 36 15 of 22 11 of 13 29 of 68 1 of 1 2 of 2
2 Joanne Wood 24 of 58 41% 13 of 40 1 of 7 10 of 11 20 of 53 4 of 5 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 17 of 33 51% 4 of 18 7 of 8 6 of 7 16 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Joanne Wood 36 of 80 45% 14 of 47 7 of 13 15 of 20 34 of 78 2 of 2 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 12 of 33 36% 3 of 19 4 of 9 5 of 5 12 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva - Fight History
LOSS vs Wang Cong
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 63 of 176 35% 65 of 178 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:03
Wang Cong 1 143 of 222 64% 147 of 226 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 17 of 41 41% 17 of 41 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Wang Cong 0 46 of 65 70% 48 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ariane da Silva 0 19 of 59 32% 21 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Wang Cong 1 42 of 64 65% 44 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
3 Ariane da Silva 0 27 of 76 35% 27 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Wang Cong 0 55 of 93 59% 55 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 63 of 176 35% 31 of 121 20 of 37 12 of 18 55 of 164 8 of 12 0 of 0
Wang Cong 143 of 222 64% 75 of 148 28 of 31 40 of 43 127 of 206 13 of 13 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 17 of 41 41% 9 of 29 4 of 7 4 of 5 15 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 0
Wang Cong 46 of 65 70% 16 of 34 12 of 12 18 of 19 39 of 58 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 19 of 59 32% 11 of 44 5 of 10 3 of 5 16 of 56 3 of 3 0 of 0
Wang Cong 42 of 64 65% 19 of 39 8 of 8 15 of 17 37 of 59 2 of 2 3 of 3
3 Ariane da Silva 27 of 76 35% 11 of 48 11 of 20 5 of 8 24 of 71 3 of 5 0 of 0
Wang Cong 55 of 93 59% 40 of 75 8 of 11 7 of 7 51 of 89 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Angelo picks Wang Cong but is not fully confident. He acknowledges Ariane Lipski's underrated striking and ability to make it competitive. He thinks Wang's power will add up over time and Lipski will become afraid to engage. He notes the odds are almost 4-to-1 and says he will likely avoid betting on this fight.

Likely to avoid betting on this fight.
"I am going to pick Kong because her power is insane. ... I'm likely going to avoid this fight altogether."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Big Brady picks Wang Cong, citing her high-level striking and the fact that Ariane da Silva has been finished in five of her losses, four by KO. He thinks da Silva doesn't like getting hit and that Cong can finish her on the feet or by mixing in takedowns, as da Silva's ground game is suspect. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Cong by KO in round 2
"I like Kong Wong. I'm going to take Kong Wong to win this fight by second round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Wang Cong is expected to be more effective with her footwork, distance management, and combinations. She will land more effective damage throughout the fight and chip away at Lipski to win on the scorecards.

"I fully expect Wang to be more effective with her footwork, distance management, and combinations. And I ultimately think she can land more effective damage throughout the 15 minutes in this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

The MMA Guru confidently picks Wang Cong, citing her superior kickboxing, power, and ability to finish. He notes Ariane da Silva has submission skills but lacks power and is reactionary. He predicts Wang Cong wins by TKO in the first round, dominating exchanges. He mentions Wang Cong's only loss was a fluke submission she would win 8 out of 10 times.

Finish prediction: first round TKO.
"I'm going with Wang Kong. She's just good at fighting, you know."
Submission (brabo choke) R3 2:28 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 42 of 92 45% 43 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 36 of 84 42% 130 of 218 3 of 5 60% 1 0 5:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 13 of 46 28% 20 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
2 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 9 of 20 45% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 17 of 28 60% 83 of 120 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:42
3 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 6 of 10 60% 27 of 38 1 of 3 33% 1 0 1:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jasmine Jasudavicius 42 of 92 45% 26 of 65 15 of 23 1 of 4 41 of 88 1 of 4 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 36 of 84 42% 29 of 76 5 of 6 2 of 2 24 of 70 1 of 1 11 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 27 of 57 47% 17 of 39 10 of 15 0 of 3 27 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 13 of 46 28% 10 of 42 2 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jasmine Jasudavicius 9 of 20 45% 4 of 13 4 of 6 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 17 of 28 60% 15 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 16 0 of 0 10 of 12
3 Jasmine Jasudavicius 6 of 15 40% 5 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 11 1 of 4 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 6 of 10 60% 4 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Angelo is confident Jasmine wins, citing her superior wrestling and pressure. He disagrees with those who think Ariane da Silva is a bad matchup for Jasmine. He notes Ariane has improved but Jasmine is a better wrestler than Karini Silva, who outwrestled Ariane. He expects Jasmine to get takedowns and win, though he wishes the line were more affordable. He may add action as the week goes on.

"Jasmine wins this fight she is minus 184 wish she was a little more affordable than that but I am confident she gets the takedown confident she gets the win and we'll have some action on her as the week …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Big Brady picks Jasmine Jasudavicius to win by decision, but with some concern. He acknowledges that Ariane da Silva has improved her takedown defense significantly, stuffing many takedowns in recent fights. However, Brady believes Jasudavicius is a much better wrestler than those opponents and will get takedowns. He notes that if Jasudavicius can't get takedowns, she is in trouble on the feet, but he leans toward her wrestling winning out.

"I'll take Jasmine here to win this fight by decision could get sketchy she's probably going to eat some big shots but I'll take Jaz deicious to win this fight by decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Cody picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, expecting her to spam takedowns and rack up control time. He notes that Ariane Lipski has been taken down frequently in the past, and Jasudavicius's wrestling should be enough to win a decision. He acknowledges that Jasudavicius's striking is not elite but believes her grappling will be the difference.

"I expect her to go out there spam take Downs get rack up a whole bunch of control time and probably win a very convincing decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Daniel Vreeland picks Jasmine Jasudavicius to pace Ariane da Silva, but notes it's a pass at the betting line. He acknowledges da Silva's recent improvements in maturity and output, but believes Jasudavicius's relentless pace and pressure will be too much. Vreeland expects Jasudavicius to push the pace and potentially get a finish, though he's not confident enough to bet at -225.

"I'm picking Jasmine jici is to come out here and the pace Arian lipsky"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Jasudavicius will put a grind on da Silva, put her in uncomfortable positions, chain wrestling attempts together, and win on the scorecards. Da Silva's defensive grappling improvements were against lower-level grapplers, and she struggled against more impressive grapplers like Jasudavicius.

"Jasudavicius should be able to put that grind on her put her in uncomfortable positions chain wrestling attempts together and win this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul picks Ariane Lipski as an underdog, arguing that her takedown defense has improved significantly since joining American Top Team, stuffing 21 straight takedown attempts before facing Karine Silva. He believes Lipski is the better striker and can keep the fight standing, where she has the advantage. He also notes that Jasudavicius struggled to takedown Tracy Cortez and was out struck in that fight.

"I take a flyer on the underdog here for lipsky."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

The Guru picks Jasmine Jasudavicius over Ariane da Silva, noting Jasudavicius's recent decent performances and size advantage. He questions da Silva's consistency and believes Jasudavicius's momentum and reach will carry her to a win.

"I'm going to go Jasmine judicious little bit bigger as well little bit rangier that goes a long way in these lower divisions"
LOSS vs Karine Silva
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karine Silva 0 42 of 81 51% 89 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:06
Ariane da Silva 0 27 of 75 36% 53 of 120 5 of 6 83% 0 0 7:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karine Silva 0 7 of 13 53% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Ariane da Silva 0 4 of 17 23% 15 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:58
2 Karine Silva 0 9 of 18 50% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 39 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:39
3 Karine Silva 0 26 of 50 52% 47 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Ariane da Silva 0 13 of 38 34% 15 of 42 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karine Silva 42 of 81 51% 12 of 37 22 of 29 8 of 15 31 of 66 8 of 11 3 of 4
Ariane da Silva 27 of 75 36% 8 of 29 9 of 32 10 of 14 21 of 65 2 of 4 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karine Silva 7 of 13 53% 4 of 8 2 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 4
Ariane da Silva 4 of 17 23% 0 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 3 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Karine Silva 9 of 18 50% 1 of 8 4 of 5 4 of 5 9 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 10 of 20 50% 4 of 10 3 of 7 3 of 3 6 of 14 0 of 1 4 of 5
3 Karine Silva 26 of 50 52% 7 of 21 16 of 20 3 of 9 19 of 41 7 of 9 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 13 of 38 34% 4 of 12 4 of 18 5 of 8 11 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ariane Lipski vs. Karine Silva

Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Lipski catches a kick and lands the first punch. Silva lands a jumping kick to the body. Lipski uses her jab and lands a straight right to the body. Silva gets a takedown and winds up in half-guard. Elbows from Silva land. Lipski pushes her opponent off. Silva engages on the ground again and gets into side control. Lipski gives up her neck as Silva is cranking. Lipski gets out of the submission attempt. Silva gets pushed off again, and Lipski gets up. Lipski lands leg kicks and gets into guard. Lipski finishes the round on top, landing a few elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 2
The two fighters exchange leg kicks on the feet. Lipski uses her jab and goes high with a kick. Silva catches a leg and is forced to give it up after Lipski throws a bunch of punches. Silva is able to throw Lipski to the ground. Silva is in half-guard and in full control of Lipski. Some nice elbows are landing for Silva. Lipski goes for a leg lock. Silva defends well. Silva gets to her feet and lands a few leg kicks. Lipski with a good upkick. Silva lands a damaging body kick as Lipski gets up. Silva drags Lipski back to the ground and has her back. Lipski defends well and survives the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 3
Lipski comes out swinging as she knows she needs a finish. Silva slows the pace with some leg kicks. Lipski answers with some body kicks. Silva catches a kick and goes for a takedown. Lipski rips her hands free, but the two are still clinched against the fence. A few knees land for Lipski, who then backs away. Silva throws a front kick. Halfway through the round. Lipski landing more kicks but isn't putting Silva in any danger. They clinch again. Silva is just holding on and not doing any damage. Lipski gets back to her feet, although Silva manages to scramble and take the back. Silva looks for a rear-naked choke as the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva (30-27 Silva)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)

The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Ariane Lipski via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28); R3, 5:00.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo bet Karine Silva at +118 underdog, noting she has 17 wins all by stoppage. He believes she can get the fight to the ground and find a submission or ground-and-pound. He gives credit to Ariane da Silva for improving her grappling and takedown defense, but thinks Karine's finishing ability will be the difference. He is confident she wins and notes the line has since flipped to -140.

Bet: at +118 (now -140)
"I bet bet her at plus 118 ... karini Silva is the pick and hopefully you were a premium member so you saw that bet before the line moved"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Cody picks Lipski as a dog, citing her improved takedown defense (stuffed 19 of 20 attempts in last three fights) and volume striking. He believes she can survive Silva's early submission threats and win a decision, noting she has never been submitted.

"I think Arion lipsky is heading in the right direction now"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel is impressed by Silva's 100% finish rate (17 finishes) and her dangerous ground game, including a rare leg lock. He thinks her striking is hittable but she's confident because she's dangerous on the ground. He believes she will finish Lipski, noting that in women's MMA, such finishing upside is huge.

"I think karini Silva is going to come out here and finish Arian lipsky"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Ariane da Silva has shown improved takedown defense, stuffing all 25 takedown attempts in her last five fights. She should be able to keep the fight standing and use her striking to beat Karine Silva. Karine Silva is dangerous on the ground but has holes in her striking. I lean Ariane da Silva by decision.

"I am going to lean ever so slightly to the lipsky side though as I think that she has a good enough takedown defense game here to keep this fight upright"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Paul also picks Lipski, highlighting her three-fight winning streak as an underdog since moving to American Top Team. He notes her takedown defense and ability to keep fights standing, and expects her volume to outwork Silva over three rounds.

"I'll take lipsky as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The MMA Guru picks Karine Silva, highlighting her consistent finishing ability with five or six submissions in a row. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's wins as over weak competition and notes her submission game is more opportunistic. He believes Silva's ability to force submissions will be the difference, and predicts she will get past da Silva.

"I'm going Karen Silva consistency recent levels of consistency from Karen Silva have superseded ariani lipsky's overall somewhat goodness in fights"
WIN vs Casey O'Neill
Submission (armbar) R2 1:18 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 31 of 74 41% 32 of 75 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Casey O'Neill 0 64 of 127 50% 86 of 152 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 28 of 68 41% 29 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Casey O'Neill 0 39 of 93 41% 44 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
2 Ariane da Silva 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Casey O'Neill 0 25 of 34 73% 42 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 31 of 74 41% 17 of 57 3 of 3 11 of 14 29 of 72 2 of 2 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 64 of 127 50% 45 of 106 16 of 18 3 of 3 37 of 95 9 of 11 18 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 28 of 68 41% 15 of 52 3 of 3 10 of 13 26 of 66 2 of 2 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 39 of 93 41% 21 of 73 15 of 17 3 of 3 29 of 81 9 of 11 1 of 1
2 Ariane da Silva 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 25 of 34 73% 24 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 14 0 of 0 17 of 20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Angelo leans Ariane da Silva, noting her recent evolution in grappling and takedown defense. He contrasts her upward trajectory with Casey O'Neill's recent struggles. He fears O'Neill's size but picks Ariane, comparing the fight to Veronica Hardy vs. Jamie Lorth.

"I'm going to lean ariani here... Ariana lipsky is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by second-round TKO, citing a phenomenal stylistic matchup. He notes O'Neill's vicious ground and pound and believes she will take down Lipski and dominate, as Lipski has been finished 4 times and struggles with ground pressure. Brady acknowledges Lipski's recent wins stuffing takedowns but thinks O'Neill's wrestling and volume will be too much. He also mentions O'Neill could knock Lipski out on the feet.

"give me Casey O'Neal to finish this fight by second round at TKO in this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Cody picks Lipski as an underdog, citing her recent improvements at American Top Team and her wins as an underdog over JJ Aldrich and Melissa Gatto. He notes that O'Neill's wrestling has not been as effective against higher-level competition and that Lipski can keep the fight standing and make it competitive. Cody believes Lipski's volume and clinch elbows could be key, and at +165 she offers value.

"I'm gonna to enact the CF doop model here again Cody Arion lipsky is the pick for me"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Lucrative James picks Ariane Lipski outright. He notes that Lipski's takedown defense has improved dramatically, and if she stuffs takedowns, she will piece Casey O'Neill up on the feet. He believes Casey's path is only via takedown and ground control, but Lipski's improved defense and the value on her as an underdog make her the side. He has already bet Lipski.

"I like Lipski in this spot... I'm picking Ariane Lipski outright."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

The host, who previously faded Lipski, is now on board after her recent improvements. He believes Lipski has a technical striking advantage, better takedown defense, and growing confidence. He expects Lipski to keep the fight standing, land the more damaging blows, and win a decision. He notes that O'Neill is still raw and untested, and that Lipski can provide a similar type of loss as Jennifer Maia did to O'Neill.

Lipski by decision
"I'm officially on the lipsky train and I feel like again somebody is still as raw as untested is you know I don't want to say that fully you know O'Neal she's faced some decent names but she's still yet …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Paul picks O'Neill but is not confident. He notes that O'Neill has good volume and takedowns against lower-level competition, but her wrestling has been less effective against better opponents. He believes O'Neill should use her wrestling to win but is hesitant because Lipski has improved. Paul expects a competitive fight and thinks O'Neill by decision is likely, but he is not fully confident.

Casey O'Neill by decision
"I'm gonna go end up going with O'Neal by decision yeah just don't feel super confident about it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Ariane Lipski, citing O'Neill's higher volume striking and physicality. He notes O'Neill threw nearly 400 significant strikes against Roxanne Modafferi, while Lipski's output is lower. He expects a decision win for O'Neill.

"I'm GNA go with Casey O'Neal over ariani lipin... Casey O'Neal puts a way higher volume out there and in women's MMA if it's close they might just just look at the person that's throwing more punches"
WIN vs Melissa Gatto
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 66 of 149 44% 81 of 166 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Melissa Gatto 0 85 of 186 45% 100 of 201 0 of 7 0% 0 0 2:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 16 of 49 32% 18 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Melissa Gatto 0 28 of 53 52% 28 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
2 Ariane da Silva 0 26 of 46 56% 39 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Melissa Gatto 0 33 of 66 50% 45 of 78 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:16
3 Ariane da Silva 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Melissa Gatto 0 24 of 67 35% 27 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 66 of 149 44% 28 of 101 27 of 36 11 of 12 53 of 131 12 of 15 1 of 3
Melissa Gatto 85 of 186 45% 39 of 117 34 of 50 12 of 19 70 of 165 15 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 16 of 49 32% 3 of 30 9 of 15 4 of 4 14 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Melissa Gatto 28 of 53 52% 13 of 31 10 of 15 5 of 7 25 of 49 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 26 of 46 56% 10 of 27 12 of 14 4 of 5 18 of 37 8 of 9 0 of 0
Melissa Gatto 33 of 66 50% 11 of 37 17 of 21 5 of 8 23 of 52 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Ariane da Silva 24 of 54 44% 15 of 44 6 of 7 3 of 3 21 of 49 2 of 2 1 of 3
Melissa Gatto 24 of 67 35% 15 of 49 7 of 14 2 of 4 22 of 64 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) based on her last performance against JJ Aldrich, where her hands and wrestling looked great. He acknowledges the logical pick is Melissa Gatto due to Lipski's history of being outgrappled, but he goes against logic. He suggests a plus 3.5 point buy on the scorecard for Lipski as a safer bet.

plus 3.5 points on judges scorecard (potential bet)
"I'm going to go against the logic I'm going to pick lipsky like she looked so good against JJ Aldridge"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Big Brady picks Melissa Gatto to win by first-round submission. He notes Gatto has improved significantly, with better striking and takedown defense, and has power. He points out that Ariane da Silva (Lipski) has been dominated on the ground by fighters like Montana De La Rosa and Antonina Shevchenko, and Gatto's top game is dangerous. He expects Gatto to get on top and finish early.

first round submission
"give me got her to win this fight by first round I'll say sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody sees Lipski as a live underdog. He notes Gatto's low volume (17 significant strikes in nearly 3 rounds against Eubanks) and poor defensive wrestling. Lipski showed improved wrestling at ATT and has high volume (101 significant strikes against Aldrich). Cody thinks if Lipski can stuff takedowns, she wins the striking battle. He also notes Lipski is only 29 and improving.

"I too will take lip ski all right"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Daniel confidently picks Gatto, citing her superior heart, durability, and grappling. He notes Lipski's history of quitting when pressured and her poor defensive grappling, while Gatto showed toughness against Tracy Cortez, reversing positions and landing takedowns. He believes Gatto's chin and submission threat are key, and that Lipski's recent win over JJ Aldrich is overrated. However, he missed the opening line (-150) and won't bet at -230, but expects Gatto to win.

missed the line at -150; Gatto minus 230
"I definitely favorite gato here it's just you know all you guys that came in on that minus 150. that minus 170. you all did your job"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Paul is tempted by the CF dog model. He notes Lipski's last performance against Aldrich was impressive and that Gatto's wins are over low-level competition. He questions if Lipski has turned the corner and thinks the line is off. Paul believes Lipski has a legitimate chance.

"I am tempted for uh to to enact the CF dot model on this one Cody is has ariani lipsky turned the corner here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The Guru picks Melissa Gatto, noting her impressive win over Ariane Lipski via front kick to the body and her submission win over Karol Rosa. He acknowledges her loss to Tracy Cortez but believes she has improved during her year off. He predicts a submission off her back, possibly an armbar.

submission off her back, armbar
"all the logic in the world is pointing me towards Melissa gato here"
WIN vs JJ Aldrich
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 101 of 204 49% 113 of 216 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:19
JJ Aldrich 0 49 of 99 49% 56 of 106 0 of 12 0% 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 35 of 67 52% 40 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 11 of 20 55% 14 of 23 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:25
2 Ariane da Silva 0 35 of 73 47% 35 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 20 of 39 51% 20 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ariane da Silva 0 31 of 64 48% 38 of 71 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:19
JJ Aldrich 0 18 of 40 45% 22 of 44 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 101 of 204 49% 47 of 134 42 of 56 12 of 14 77 of 176 24 of 28 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 49 of 99 49% 42 of 92 4 of 4 3 of 3 45 of 95 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 35 of 67 52% 17 of 42 15 of 20 3 of 5 22 of 53 13 of 14 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 11 of 20 55% 9 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 35 of 73 47% 15 of 48 15 of 20 5 of 5 30 of 68 5 of 5 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 20 of 39 51% 18 of 37 1 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ariane da Silva 31 of 64 48% 15 of 44 12 of 16 4 of 4 25 of 55 6 of 9 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 18 of 40 45% 15 of 37 2 of 2 1 of 1 17 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Angelo is very confident in JJ Aldrich, describing her as a solid, dependable grinder who will stick to a game plan and grind forward. He notes she is dangerous nowhere but good everywhere, and despite breaking his rule against betting on women's MMA, he places a 1.5 unit bet at -220. He believes she will win without taking risks.

1.5 unit bet at -220
"I've got a one and a half unit bet that's a lot of money on JJ Aldridge but I got a one and a half unit bet at minus 220. I'm just very confident in her ability to go out …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Big Brady is confident in JJ Aldrich, noting she is the much more technical striker with better footwork. He highlights Lipski's huge hole in her ground game, calling it 'atrocious' and noting she has been finished on the mat multiple times. Brady expects Aldrich to mix takedowns and eventually get a late TKO, though he acknowledges decision is more likely.

win by TKO in round 3
"I like Aldrich to have success in the Striking mixing the takedowns win minutes on the on the feet on the mat and I'm gonna say Aldridge eventually gets a TKO here late late fight uh late third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Cody picks Aldrich, citing her training and striking. He notes da Silva's lack of improvement and thinks Aldrich can finish or win a decision. He is cautious about the price but sees Aldrich as a safe parlay piece.

"we're gonna take JJ Aldridge she'll probably be somewhere around like the second or third lot I don't want her on the second"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Connor picks Aldrich confidently, citing her superior striking, takedown ability, and experience. He notes that Lipski has poor takedown defense and tends to focus on punching when pressured, which Aldrich can exploit with clinch work and takedowns. He believes Aldrich is a level above Lipski's previous competition.

Aldrich opened at unknown, now -380 to -450; Lipski +285 to +350. Connor says the odds feel appropriate.
"Aldrich is just too good. Lipsky has yet to beat anybody at this level who even approaches JJ Aldrich's level of ability."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Aldrich's footwork, combination striking, and experience should be too much for Lipski. Lipski has struggled against higher-level competition and has been finished in her losses. Aldrich can win on the feet or even on the ground. I expect Aldrich to box her way to a decision victory, controlling the distance and landing the cleaner shots.

"I think a combination of aldrich's output footwork and ability to stay safe at distance is going to overwhelm lipsky here and I think Aldrich boxes her way to a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Paul picks Aldrich, noting her striking advantage and improved wrestling. He thinks she can win standing or on the ground, but is wary of the -450 price. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds prop as interesting.

under 2.5 rounds +165
"JJ Aldridge can win this fight standing she can win this fight to the ground"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich, calling her underrated. He notes she trains with top fighters and performed decently against Blanchfield before getting guillotined. He believes Aldrich is more well-rounded and tougher, and will win a decision by out-grappling and making Ariane da Silva gun-shy.

by decision
"I'm definitely gonna side with JJ Aldridge here being the better more well-rounded fighter overall and a bit tougher"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Zane picks Aldrich, noting that she is a consistent, well-rounded fighter who should handle Lipski's aggressive but flawed style. He points out that Lipski's best win is against Luana Carolina, who is messy, and that Aldrich's takedown threat and counter-striking will be too much.

"Aldrich is just too good. Lipsky has yet to beat anybody at this level who even approaches JJ Aldrich's level of ability."
TKO (punches) R1 1:05 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Priscila Cachoeira 1 20 of 35 57% 20 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Ariane da Silva 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Priscila Cachoeira 1 20 of 35 57% 20 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Ariane da Silva 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Priscila Cachoeira 20 of 35 57% 15 of 27 4 of 5 1 of 3 6 of 17 0 of 0 14 of 18
Ariane da Silva 4 of 15 26% 3 of 12 0 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Priscila Cachoeira 20 of 35 57% 15 of 27 4 of 5 1 of 3 6 of 17 0 of 0 14 of 18
Ariane da Silva 4 of 15 26% 3 of 12 0 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Priscila Cachoeira vs. Ariane Lipski
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lipski (-195), Cachoeira (+165)

Round 1
This is another rescheduled fight from last week’s event, with both women moving up a division to keep the bout intact. After a rough start to her UFC tenure, Brazil’s Cachoeira is building momentum with three wins in her last four outings. A former KSW champ, Lipski has been up and down since signing with the Las Vegas-based promotion. Herb Dean is in charge of the contest. Lipski catches Cachoeira with a counter right. Cachoeira lands a right of her own. “Zombie Girl” moves forward to force the brawl she desires and Lipski obliges. That turns out to be the wrong decision, as a left hook from Cachoeira backs up “The Violence Queen.” Cachoeira forces the issue, landing more shots.
Lipski is firing back but leaving herself exposed, and eventually the onslaught from Cachoeira drops her opponent — puncutated by a right to the chin. Cachoeira smells blood, and a barrage of punches and hammerfists on the canvas on a defenseless Lipski brings the show to a close.

The Official Result
Priscila Cachoeira def. Ariane Lipski via TKO (Punches) R1 1:05
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Priscila Cachoeira

Angelo switched his pick from Lipski to Cachoeira due to Lipski's weight cut issues and medical problems. He notes Cachoeira is the more dangerous fighter with heavy pressure and power, and Lipski may not be at 100% after cutting weight twice in a short period.

"i'm full on switching my pick i'm going priscilla cachera here she was always the more dangerous fighter in this matchup"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Big Brady picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) to win by first-round submission. He notes that Cachoeira absorbs an absurd 7.91 significant strikes per minute with 45% striking defense, calling her the definition of blocking punches with her face. Lipski hits hard and has a good submission game, and Cachoeira has been submitted twice in the UFC. Brady believes Lipski will take the fight down and submit her easily in the first round.

first round submission
"i think lipski takes the path of release resistance get this fight down to the mat and submits catch aware in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Cody picks Lipski, criticizing Cachoeira's technique and durability. He notes Cachoeira missed weight and had lingering COVID symptoms, which are bad signs. Cody thinks Lipski is better standing and in the clinch, and he cannot bet Cachoeira.

"there's just no world that exists that i want to bet priscilla cachuera it just does it's not happening"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Priscila Cachoeira

Paul picks Cachoeira, having already bet her at +150 and a round three prop at 20-1. He acknowledges she missed weight and had COVID issues but still believes she can win. Paul is sticking with his bet despite the line moving against him.

Cachoeira round three +2000; Cachoeira moneyline +150
"i'm already on catch awara plus 150 the market is moving against me i'm already on catch aware uh 20 to one in round three"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

The host picks Ariane Lipski (Ariane da Silva) over Priscila Cachoeira, citing Cachoeira's weak UFC wins and losses to fighters like Molly McCann and Luana Carolina. He expects Lipski to take the fight to the ground and secure a submission in the first or second round, referencing Lipski's previous dominant submission win over Luana Carolina who also beat Cachoeira.

submission in first or second round
"i can see ariana lipski getting this one to the ground and finding herself a submission victory in the first or second round"
WIN vs Mandy Böhm
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 2 87 of 194 44% 116 of 233 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:26
Mandy Böhm 0 36 of 108 33% 47 of 123 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 17 of 50 34% 44 of 83 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:04
Mandy Böhm 0 12 of 26 46% 17 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
2 Ariane da Silva 1 35 of 72 48% 36 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Mandy Böhm 0 12 of 41 29% 15 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ariane da Silva 1 35 of 72 48% 36 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:01
Mandy Böhm 0 12 of 41 29% 15 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 87 of 194 44% 27 of 106 53 of 73 7 of 15 64 of 157 15 of 23 8 of 14
Mandy Böhm 36 of 108 33% 18 of 84 12 of 16 6 of 8 31 of 101 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 17 of 50 34% 7 of 34 9 of 13 1 of 3 14 of 43 3 of 5 0 of 2
Mandy Böhm 12 of 26 46% 2 of 12 6 of 10 4 of 4 9 of 21 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 35 of 72 48% 10 of 36 22 of 30 3 of 6 25 of 57 6 of 9 4 of 6
Mandy Böhm 12 of 41 29% 8 of 36 3 of 3 1 of 2 11 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ariane da Silva 35 of 72 48% 10 of 36 22 of 30 3 of 6 25 of 57 6 of 9 4 of 6
Mandy Böhm 12 of 41 29% 8 of 36 3 of 3 1 of 2 11 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) confidently. He thinks she is a little better everywhere and has a huge experience edge (20 fights vs 7). He notes that Mandy Böhm is undefeated but has no specific elite skill to lean on, and that Lipski's losses came on her back, which he doesn't think will happen here. He placed a 1-unit bet on the moneyline at -121.

Moneyline bet at -121, 1 unit
"ariana lipsky is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

Big Brady picks underdog Mandy Böhm, believing her grappling will be the difference. He notes Ariane Lipski has poor takedown defense (42%) and a weak ground game, having been finished on the mat multiple times. He predicts Böhm will exploit this and win by second-round TKO or submission.

second round TKO or submission
"i'm going to take the underdog and mandy baum"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

Cody picks Mandy Böhm, citing her superior striking, reach advantage, and underrated wrestling. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's poor takedown defense and low output, calling her 'fraudulent.' Cody notes that Böhm has a year layoff but believes she has the skills to win if she shows up in shape.

"i'm gonna go with mandy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Daniel Levi leans with Ariane Lipski. He notes Lipski has lost twice in a row but those losses were to high-level fighters (Montana De La Rosa, Antonina Shevchenko). He thinks Mandy Böhm is green, with issues getting off the fence and off her back. He credits Böhm's toughness and clinch elbows but believes Lipski's experience will prevail. He says he's not confident enough to bet Lipski but picks her to get back on track.

"i do have to lean with the experience of lipski i just think that experience counts for a lot in this game"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Preet reluctantly picks Lipski because she is the much better striker and has trained at ATT. However, he is concerned about her takedown defense. He thinks Lipski will overwhelm Böhm on the feet and get a TKO in the second round. He likes Lipski by TKO at +500 and under 2.5 rounds at +185.

Ariane Lipski by TKO +500, Under 2.5 rounds +185
"I do think she eventually finds that tko in the second round here by over one overwhelming mandy bomb on the feet uh and getting her out of there lipski by tko is plus 500"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ariane da Silva was dominated on the ground by Antonina Shevchenko, who is not a strong grappler. He believes Böhm's clinch work and cage control will be key. Paul says he cannot bet anyone who gets 'throttled' by Shevchenko.

"i can't bet anybody who gets absolutely throttled in the wrestling department by antonina shivchenko it's just not gonna happen so i'm with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

The MMA Guru picks Mandy Böhm over Ariane Lipski, noting Böhm's technical skill, athleticism, and undefeated record. He criticizes Lipski's inconsistency against fundamentally sound opponents. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Böhm.

"i'm going to go with mandy bomb here and she's also evens with ariana lipsky"