Career Averages - Magomed Ankalaev
Career Averages - Dalcha Lungiambula
Magomed Ankalaev - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 28 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 28 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Pereira | 28 of 45 | 62% | 21 of 35 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Pereira | 28 of 45 | 62% | 21 of 35 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 33 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, believing the rematch will be similar to the first fight. He argues that Alex Pereira's narrative about trusting his takedown defense and letting his hands go is flawed because Ankalaev almost knocked him out in the first fight. He also notes that defending takedowns is easier when that's all you focus on, and that Ankalaev now knows he can handle Pereira's power. He expects Ankalaev to win more dominantly.
Big Brady is concerned about Pereira's age (38), potential lack of focus due to newfound wealth and lifestyle, and recent performances. He believes Ankalaev is hungrier and more dedicated. He notes that Ankalaev almost finished Pereira in the second round of their first fight and that Pereira has been hurt multiple times. He predicts Ankalaev wins by third-round knockout.
Connor picks Ankalaev, agreeing with Zane that Pereira's age and the way Ankalaev pressured him in the first fight are key factors. He emphasizes that Ankalaev's ability to make clutch decisions and prevent big swings, combined with Pereira's declining willingness to take risks, makes Ankalaev the likely winner. Connor also notes that Pereira's back-foot game is not strong enough to counter Ankalaev's pressure.
The host expects a more violent and aggressive Pereira, which could work for or against him. He likes the under 3.5 rounds and believes Ankalaev will catch a reckless Pereira and knock him out, replicating the previous fight's success.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev, believing his wrestling, boxing, and mental focus will be key. He notes Pereira's difficulty with southpaws and the likelihood that Ankalaev improves his takedown efficiency. He predicts a finish in the championship rounds.
Zane picks Ankalaev because he believes Pereira's age and stylistic progression have made him more cautious and less willing to pull the trigger. He notes that Ankalaev is adept at steering fights and maintaining a narrow lead, and that Pereira struggled to create offense when pressured in their first fight. Zane also mentions that Ankalaev has never been knocked out and has a good chin, though he acknowledges Pereira's power is always a threat.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 76 of 137 | 55% | 97 of 159 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 94 of 180 | 52% | 127 of 224 | 0 of 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 12 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 21 of 34 | 61% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 4 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 23 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 19 of 24 | 79% | 45 of 61 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 | |
| 5 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 15 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 76 of 137 | 55% | 11 of 57 | 17 of 25 | 48 of 55 | 69 of 130 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 94 of 180 | 52% | 36 of 112 | 30 of 39 | 28 of 29 | 75 of 159 | 19 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 16 of 34 | 47% | 0 of 11 | 2 of 5 | 14 of 18 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 9 of 27 | 33% | 1 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 18 of 36 | 50% | 3 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 13 | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 29 of 53 | 54% | 18 of 40 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 21 of 34 | 61% | 4 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 15 | 20 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 17 of 40 | 42% | 5 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alex Pereira | 7 of 12 | 58% | 0 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 19 of 24 | 79% | 7 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 11 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alex Pereira | 14 of 21 | 66% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 20 of 36 | 55% | 5 of 17 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 9 | 14 of 30 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ankalaev (-258), Pereira (+210)
Round 1
In March, Ankalaev (20-1-1, 1 NC; 12-1-1, 1 NC UFC) claimed the throne most expected he would sit atop by outworking Pereira (12-3, 9-2 UFC). After about seven months to prepare for the second engagement, the light heavyweight champs run it back, this time with “Poatan” as the challenger. Violence is expected to be the currency of the main event, and referee Herb Dean will be its banker. The two players are all in, and despite a bit of bad blood blossoming, they do bump their sizeable fists together. Time to spin the wheel.
Pereira rushes right out of his corner to hurl a one-two at the champion, and Ankalaev backs off and pushes off three front kicks to the chest. Pereira marches Ankalaev down, keeping him against the wall as he slaps a kick off the front leg. Ankalaev gains a little space from a swatting combination, and a second misses the mark when Pereira parries. The Brazilian works the other front leg after Ankalaev switches stances, and he clubs Ankalaev with a massive right hand. Ankalaev shoots desperately, his bell rung, and Pereira bowls him over and pounces on top of him. Pereira starts laying into Ankalaev with punches and elbows, and he jackhammers the Russian with devastating 12-to-6 elbows. Dean is paying close attention but observes Ankalaev blocking the majority of the blows so he sits back. Pereira is not about to slow down, knowing that Ankalaev is at least rocked or at best in grave danger. The fired-up “Poatan” batters and brutalizes the sitting champ, crushing him with elbows to the body and finalizing his journey with one last barrage of downward elbows. Dean steps in, and Pereira motions with both hands to the downed Ankalaev like he did in a past triumph, the “chama” version of “you see what happens, Larry!” Pereira goes to embrace his corner, and he checks on his toes that might have sustained some damage in the roughly 80 seconds of demolition.
The crowd goes wild, clearly having picked a side in this dispute and it was not the Russian. “Poatan” has the belt draped around his waist by matchmaker Mick Maynard and not UFC chief Dana White, and he puts his hand to his ear to drink in Bruce Buffer’s victory announcement. “Vengeance is never a good thing,” Pereira admits, even as he exacts revenge on a man that beat him earlier this year. He has handed Ankalaev his first defeat via strikes, and he declares that he was not surprised, mister falcons. Rather than call out former two-division champ Jon Jones, Pereira asks if the audience can give Arthur Jones, recently deceased brother of Jon Jones, a moment of silence. The entire T-Mobile Arena silences itself in an instant, giving Jones’ family and loved ones the respect they deserve. Just like that, the Ankalaev era is over, and Pereira already has a few challengers lined up in the form of Carlos Ulberg and possibly Jiri Prochazka—although the latter has already lost twice to him. The party begins, with Pereira and his crew at Teixeira MMA & Fitness dancing in the Octagon to celebrate the spectacular triumph. When Pereira defends his new belt, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Magomed Ankalaev R1 1:20 via TKO (Punches and Elbows)
Connor picks Pereira because he trusts Pereira's durability and defensive instincts, and believes Pereira's pressure and willingness to punch in the pocket will force Ankalaev out of his comfort zone. He notes that Ankalaev has a history of complacency and inconsistency, and that Pereira's jab and combination punching are poison for counter punchers like Ankalaev. Connor acknowledges that Ankalaev has the tools to win but is not trustworthy.
Lucrative James believes Ankalaev's wrestling advantage is the key factor. He notes that Ankalaev has been wrestling since childhood, while Pereira's grappling is a clear weakness. He argues that if Ankalaev uses his wrestling consistently, he will dominate from top position and win the fight. He also mentions that Pereira's hype has driven the line to a pick'em, but he sees Ankalaev as the rightful favorite. He acknowledges Pereira's elite striking and power, but thinks Ankalaev's low-paced kickboxing style minimizes danger and allows him to set up takedowns.
Zane picks Ankalaev despite his inconsistency, believing that the threat of Pereira's power will force Ankalaev to take risks and finally put together a complete performance. He notes that Ankalaev has the technical ability to trouble Pereira, especially with his southpaw right hook and counter punching, and that he has historically risen to the occasion when pressured. However, Zane admits it's a feast-or-famine pick and that Pereira is the smarter choice.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 55 of 114 | 48% | 75 of 142 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 53 of 117 | 45% | 59 of 123 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 19 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 24 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 20 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 55 of 114 | 48% | 20 of 72 | 22 of 29 | 13 of 13 | 50 of 105 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 53 of 117 | 45% | 10 of 65 | 9 of 12 | 34 of 40 | 50 of 111 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 19 of 34 | 55% | 7 of 19 | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 22 of 45 | 48% | 4 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 17 | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 23 of 50 | 46% | 8 of 33 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 23 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 19 of 43 | 44% | 3 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 14 | 18 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 30 | 43% | 5 of 20 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 22 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 12 of 29 | 41% | 3 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev as the first leg of his 'villain parlay' with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Ankalaev is a good kickboxer with wrestling, but he dislikes him and hopes the parlay loses. He thinks Ankalaev should win because Rakić is coming off two losses and hasn't won since 2021, and Ankalaev has the technical striking and wrestling advantage.
Big Brady slightly favors Ankalaev but thinks the fight will be close and competitive. He expects the striking to be competitive and the fight to go to decision. He notes that Ankalaev has a path to victory via wrestling, as Rakić hasn't faced many wrestlers in the UFC. He calls the line 'kind of dumb' but picks Ankalaev to win a close decision.
Cody picks Magomed Ankalaev, stating he is the uncrowned champion of the division and should roll over Rakić. He notes that Rakić hasn't looked good since 2019, has been knocked out in his last two fights, and lacks durability and volume. Cody believes Ankalaev's wrestling and striking will be too much, and that he will be motivated to make a statement to earn a title shot.
Connor picks Rakić, mainly because he wants Ankalaev to suffer and because Rakić is a more powerful striker with better fundamentals. He notes that Ankalaev tends to fight at a slow pace and rely on his wrestling, but often doesn't use it. Connor believes Rakić's jab and counter-punching could give him an edge in a kickboxing match.
Daniel Vreeland picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, citing his superior hands and ability to capitalize on Rakić's tendency to exit the pocket with his chin up. He expects Rakić to have early leg kick success but believes Ankalaev will make adjustments and either win by knockout or a 29-28 decision. Vreeland notes that Ankalaev is on a 12-fight unbeaten streak and that Rakić has been underwhelming despite his physique.
Lucrative James picks Magomed Ankalaev to win but is hesitant due to Ankalaev's poor fight IQ and tendency to make fights close. He notes that Ankalaev is the better all-around fighter with grappling upside, but his low volume and lack of power could lead to a close decision. He sees value on Rakić as an underdog and expects a split decision type fight. He is not confident enough to bet on Ankalaev at -360 odds.
Ankalaev's overall game is too much for Rakić. Many expect a grapple-heavy approach, but Ankalaev may unleash his striking to catch Rakić off guard, leading to a knockout victory. This would help him overcome the 'boring' label and earn a title shot.
Paul picks Ankalaev, agreeing that he is the best in the division and that Rakić is not a top-five fighter. He points out that Rakić has been outworked and knocked out in his recent fights, and that Ankalaev's wrestling and striking will be decisive. Paul also mentions that Ankalaev needs to put his foot on the gas to impress the UFC.
The Guru picks Ankalaev by decision, despite acknowledging Rakić's technical skills. He believes Ankalaev's pressure and clinch work will wear on Rakić, and that Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to secure rounds. He notes that Rakić has struggled to finish opponents and that Ankalaev's boxing will become more effective as the fight goes on. The Guru also mentions that the odds are too wide in Ankalaev's favor, suggesting Rakić offers value as an underdog, but ultimately sticks with Ankalaev via 29-28 decision.
Zane picks Ankalaev, expecting a slow-paced kickboxing match where Ankalaev edges out a decision. He acknowledges Rakić's power and technique but thinks Ankalaev will control the tempo and win a close fight, as he has done before. Zane is not confident but sees Ankalaev as the likely winner.
Zane did not make a pick for this fight. He criticized the matchup as boring, noting both fighters are consistent, risk-averse range strikers who favor high-percentage low-power strikes. He expressed disappointment that the UFC booked this fight knowing their styles, and predicted Ankalaev will likely get a title shot anyway due to lack of other options.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 39 of 58 | 67% | 39 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 24 of 71 | 33% | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 22 of 25 | 88% | 22 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 39 of 58 | 67% | 8 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 29 | 38 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Johnny Walker | 24 of 71 | 33% | 2 of 34 | 3 of 6 | 19 of 31 | 24 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 17 of 33 | 51% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 17 | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 15 of 50 | 30% | 2 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 11 of 19 | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 22 of 25 | 88% | 6 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 12 | 21 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Johnny Walker | 9 of 21 | 42% | 0 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 12 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, expecting him to avoid Johnny Walker's wild strikes, clinch, and take him down to wear him out. He notes Ankalaev's wrestling backup and thinks he is desperate for a win. He finds the -500 odds too steep to bet given Walker's danger and Ankalaev's recent no-contest and draw.
Big Brady believes Ankalaev can win however he wants, but prefers the wrestling path. He notes Ankalaev's durability and wrestling are superior, while Walker is chinny and unpredictable. He expects Ankalaev to control the fight and win by decision, avoiding prolonged striking exchanges.
Cody picks Ankalaev despite acknowledging his tendency to make fights closer than necessary. He notes that in the brief first fight, Walker had nothing for Ankalaev and that Ankalaev is clearly the more skilled fighter. He believes Ankalaev will win even if he fights a stupid game plan, citing durability and overall skill advantage.
Cody picks Ankalaev to win by decision, noting that Ankalaev won the first fight and can mix in wrestling for cage control. He believes Ankalaev is faster and has a better gas tank, and that Pereira is 38 and unlikely to make major adjustments. He expects another close fight but edges it to Ankalaev.
Daniel Vreeland picks Magomed Ankalaev to defeat Johnny Walker. He acknowledges Ankalaev's well-rounded skill set and size, but notes he sometimes underwhelms. He believes Ankalaev will make adjustments after the first fight, where Walker targeted his legs. Vreeland is confident Ankalaev can get the job done wherever the fight goes, though he worries about Walker's athleticism and unorthodox attacks.
James picks Ankalaev to win via KO, citing that Ankalaev hurt Pereira in round two of their first fight and nearly knocked him out. He believes Pereira's chin may give out this time, and Ankalaev could also secure takedowns and dominate on the ground. James notes that Pereira's calf kicks were effective in the first fight but thinks Ankalaev may have adjusted. He also likes the under 4.5 rounds.
Magomed Ankalaev is a smooth, technical striker who is comfortable in both stances and has a strong clinch and wrestling game. He showed in the first fight that he could take Walker down and control him. Johnny Walker is on a three-fight winning streak and looks confident, but he has historically struggled against technical fighters and can be overwhelmed by grappling. Ankalaev's discipline and wrestling should allow him to neutralize Walker's power and grind out a decision. The over 1.5 rounds is a good play given Ankalaev's grappling approach.
Paul picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights close. He notes that Ankalaev has the skills to beat anyone but often ignores the wrestling path to victory. He believes Ankalaev is durable enough to take Walker's big shots and will win even if he fights a stupid game plan.
Paul leans towards Ankalaev but acknowledges the fight is close. He notes that Pereira took rounds off and that Ankalaev's wrestling, even if not successful, gave him cage control. He thinks the line is too wide and prefers the decision prop for Pereira, but ultimately sticks with Ankalaev.
The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as an underdog, citing Walker's finishing ability and reach advantage (82 inches vs 75). He notes that Ankalaev may be frustrated by recent events (draw with Jan, no-contest with Walker) and that Walker got back up quickly from a takedown in the first fight. He predicts Walker will get a TKO/KO, benefiting from Ankalaev's potential emotional state.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 19 | 68% | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Johnny Walker | 14 of 27 | 51% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 19 | 68% | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Johnny Walker | 14 of 27 | 51% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, calling him one of the best light heavyweights. He thinks Ankalaev will slow the pace and fight his fight. He notes Johnny Walker's danger if he makes it ugly, but expects Ankalaev to earn a title shot. He considers Ankalaev a safe bet.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision, though he expects a boring fight. He notes that Ankalaev has good wrestling, as seen against Jan Blachowicz, and that Johnny Walker struggled on the ground against Nikita Krylov. Brady believes Ankalaev will mix in takedowns, control Walker, and win a dull decision.
Cody picks Ankalaev, emphasizing that he should use his wrestling to neutralize Walker. He notes that Ankalaev has excellent wrestling and ground control, and that Walker is inconsistent and can be taken down. Cody believes that even if Ankalaev fights to his opponent's level, he should edge out a decision or get a finish. He also mentions the Abu Dhabi factor favoring Ankalaev in a close fight.
Daniel picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, acknowledging Ankalaev's superior technical skills and experience but expressing concern that he sometimes fights down to his competition. He notes Ankalaev's vulnerabilities, such as being dropped by Thiago Santos and leg kicks from Jan Błachowicz, and thinks Johnny Walker's leg kick game plan could be effective. However, he believes Ankalaev is on a different level and should win if he is aggressive, but he is not confident enough to bet at -350.
Ankalaev is one of the most complete fighters at 205 lbs, with high-level striking and wrestling. He can mix in takedowns to wear on Walker's cardio and slow him down. Walker is explosive but when unable to set the pace, he slows down and gives up positions. Expects Ankalaev to win a decision and earn another title shot.
Paul picks Ankalaev but is hesitant, noting that Ankalaev often fights to the level of his competition and has had close fights with lesser opponents. He worries that Ankalaev may not use his wrestling early and could get into a striking match where Walker's reach is an advantage. However, Paul believes Ankalaev's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi location give him the edge in a close decision.
The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as a big underdog, citing a feeling that Walker will finish Ankalaev in a weird way. He notes Walker's 7-inch reach advantage and wild style that Ankalaev hasn't faced recently. He recalls Ankalaev being dropped by Thiago Santos and thinks Walker's takedown defense is underrated. He believes Ankalaev doesn't use his grappling unless losing and that Walker's momentum and size will be key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 55 of 117 | 47% | 79 of 141 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 78 of 184 | 42% | 191 of 312 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 11:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 40 of 70 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 55 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 54 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 55 of 117 | 47% | 19 of 71 | 11 of 17 | 25 of 29 | 50 of 109 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 78 of 184 | 42% | 49 of 139 | 19 of 33 | 10 of 12 | 50 of 134 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 42 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 14 of 35 | 40% | 3 of 20 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 19 of 43 | 44% | 10 of 28 | 7 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 23 of 43 | 53% | 10 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 12 | 18 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 37 | 35% | 7 of 24 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 17 of 34 | 50% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 10 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 48 | 37% | 10 of 37 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 10 of 19 | 52% | 4 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 6 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 37 | 48% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 35 |
Angelo is very confident in Ankalaev, calling him the most complete fighter in the division with methodical, technical striking and wrestling. He believes Błachowicz's only chance is to land a big shot in close range, but Ankalaev's length, accuracy, and control will prevent that. He considers Ankalaev at -255 incredible value.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev, citing his wrestling as the key difference. He notes Błachowicz has poor getup game once taken down, and Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to win rounds. He expects a competitive but boring fight on the feet, with Ankalaev winning by decision. He expresses disappointment in the matchup.
Cody picks Ankalaev, believing he is better in all facets and the number one guy in the division. He notes Ankalaev's high fight IQ, cardio, durability, and ability to adapt to opponents. He thinks Jan is older and his body is deteriorating, citing the Glover fight where Jan tapped quickly to a neck crank. Cody sees Ankalaev winning inside the distance, possibly in rounds 3-5, as Jan fades.
Connor picks Błachowicz as a flyer, believing Ankalaev will wait too long to wrestle, which could be fatal against a striker as good and defensively sound as Błachowicz. He notes Błachowicz's jab, footwork, and counterpunching will trouble Ankalaev, and that Ankalaev's single-strike approach plays into Błachowicz's hands. However, he acknowledges Ankalaev could dominate if he wrestles early.
Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win the vacant light heavyweight title. He emphasizes Ankalaev's patient, risk-averse style that frustrates opponents and his southpaw stance with a nasty counter right hook. Levi notes that Jan Błachowicz tends to attack in a straight line, which plays into Ankalaev's counters, and that Ankalaev can mix in takedowns from his Greco-Roman background. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and body kicks but believes Ankalaev is defensively sound enough to avoid big moments and will win a decision, likely 4-1. Levi placed a 2-unit bet on Ankalaev at -250.
Lock is confident in Ankalaev, having bet him as his lock of the week at -255. He believes Ankalaev is that much better than Błachowicz and will rule the light heavyweight division for years. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks $5.26 is not too late to buy in, as Ankalaev has longevity and could reach $8-9 after defending the belt. He recommends holding onto the stock long-term rather than selling immediately.
Paul picks Ankalaev, noting he is a minus 255 favorite and that he believes Ankalaev is better in all facets. He struggles with Ankalaev's tendency to fight safe and not always press for finishes, making it hard to bet props. He thinks Ankalaev wins but is not confident in the moneyline at that price, considering a parlay or prop instead.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Jan Błachowicz by decision. He believes Ankalaev will be patient at range, use front kicks and jabs, and mix in takedowns after making Błachowicz hesitant. He notes Ankalaev's experience over five rounds and his ability to drain opponents, predicting a 49-46 decision where Ankalaev loses the first round but dominates later rounds.
Zane picks Ankalaev, citing his durability, patience, and power. He believes Ankalaev will find a moment to take Błachowicz down and win three rounds, as Błachowicz has historically struggled against takedown artists. Zane trusts Ankalaev to be consistent enough to capitalize on opportunities.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 46 of 79 | 58% | 64 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 21 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 26 of 38 | 68% | 41 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 46 of 79 | 58% | 31 of 60 | 6 of 9 | 9 of 10 | 23 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 32 |
| Anthony Smith | 18 of 36 | 50% | 6 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 17 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 20 of 41 | 48% | 9 of 26 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 9 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Anthony Smith | 13 of 23 | 56% | 3 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 26 of 38 | 68% | 22 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 31 |
| Anthony Smith | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. He acknowledges Ankalaev's low volume but praises his power and defensive soundness. He doubts Smith can take Ankalaev down and notes Smith is hittable. He expects Ankalaev to win comfortably but not look like a -600 favorite unless he finishes early.
Cody picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights harder than necessary. He notes that Ankalaev has a history of not using his wrestling enough, standing with opponents and getting clipped. He thinks if Ankalaev sticks to takedowns, he wins easily, but he's not sure he will. He calls it a potential lock but worries about Ankalaev's decision-making. He also notes that Smith is crafty and has good cardio.
Daniel picks Ankalaev to win, but notes the fight depends on Smith's approach. If Smith is content to survive, it will be a boring decision for Ankalaev. If Smith pushes the pace, it could be exciting with a finish on either side. He acknowledges Ankalaev's counter-striking style and power, but says Smith needs to take risks to win. He expects Ankalaev to piece Smith apart over three rounds if Smith doesn't engage.
Preet picks Ankalaev by decision and likes the over 2.5 rounds, expecting Ankalaev to slow the fight with clinch and takedowns, grinding out Smith. He notes Ankalaev's ability to make adjustments, as seen against Krylov, and that Smith's pressure could make it exciting but ultimately Ankalaev's discipline wins. He avoids the moneyline at -560.
Paul picks Ankalaev, noting that he is the best guy at 205 pounds and has an easy path to victory by taking Smith down repeatedly. He acknowledges that Ankalaev sometimes makes fights harder by standing, but he expects him to win. He mentions that Smith's takedown defense has always been an issue and that Ankalaev should stick to the game plan. He also notes that the -600 price is wide but that's the price you have to pay.
The MMA Guru predicts Magomed Ankalaev wins by 29-28 or 30-27 decision. He expects a lackluster fight where Smith may win the first round but then shells up as Ankalaev chops the legs, lands ground-and-pound, and controls the later rounds. The Guru notes Ankalaev's patience and Smith's inability to create offense.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 60 of 138 | 43% | 81 of 160 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 78 of 155 | 50% | 114 of 191 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 10 of 32 | 31% | 16 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 21 of 48 | 43% | 36 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 | |
| 5 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 19 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 36 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 60 of 138 | 43% | 14 of 75 | 16 of 26 | 30 of 37 | 57 of 135 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Thiago Santos | 78 of 155 | 50% | 33 of 94 | 35 of 51 | 10 of 10 | 64 of 140 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 10 of 21 | 47% | 0 of 6 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 9 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 8 of 23 | 34% | 3 of 13 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 15 of 36 | 41% | 7 of 22 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Thiago Santos | 15 of 32 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 30 | 60% | 2 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 13 | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 19 of 31 | 61% | 7 of 17 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Magomed Ankalaev | 10 of 32 | 31% | 4 of 23 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 21 of 48 | 43% | 13 of 38 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | |
| 5 | Magomed Ankalaev | 7 of 19 | 36% | 1 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 15 of 21 | 71% | 4 of 8 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, noting that Thiago Santos has slowed down at 38 and is not the same fighter who knocked out Jan Blachowicz. He believes Ankalaev's forward pressure, heavy kicks, and constant takedown threats will be too much. He expects a one-sided win, though not necessarily a stoppage.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. He notes Santos is 38, looks washed, has low volume (44 strikes in 25 minutes vs Walker), and has never recovered from his knee injuries after the Jones fight. He thinks Ankalaev is well-rounded, has power, and will outpoint Santos easily over five rounds. He expects the fight to be somewhat uneventful but Ankalaev will dominate. He mentions the line has moved from -330 to -500.
Cody is confident in Ankalaev, citing his pace, cardio, chin, and improved striking. He notes Santos is 38, has declined since knee surgery, and lacks volume. Cody sees Ankalaev as the best at 205 and expects him to win via pressure and volume, possibly a late stoppage. He mentions a parlay with Murzakanov at -106.
Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, citing Ankalaev's upward trajectory and the emergence of a new era of light heavyweights. He notes that Thiago Santos has had lackluster performances since the Jon Jones fight, with his knees falling apart. Levi expects a chess match early but sees Ankalaev landing a big counter or takedown with ground and pound. He acknowledges Santos's power but believes Ankalaev's counters are sharp and that he will eventually get a title shot.
Ankalaev is seen as the uncrowned champ, with a seven-fight win streak and granite chin. He's a technical striker with high striking defense, and his ability to adjust mid-fight is praised. Santos is past his prime at 38, with ACL surgery and tentative performances. Ankalaev is expected to win via decision, possibly a one-sided chess match.
Paul echoes Cody's view, emphasizing Santos' decline and Ankalaev's advantages in speed, volume, and wrestling. He notes the price is high but believes Ankalaev is the best in the division. He also mentions a parlay with Murzakanov.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Thiago Santos, citing Santos' hesitancy and lack of ligaments in his leg. He believes Ankalaev will chop at the legs early, mix in takedowns, and expose Santos' poor ground game as Glover Teixeira did. He expects a late second-round ground-and-pound TKO, noting that Ankalaev's patient counter-striking style works well against Santos. He admits Santos is a decent underdog but says the odds won't sway him, as Ankalaev wins this fight seven or eight times out of ten.
Dalcha Lungiambula - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 0 | 54 of 107 | 50% | 60 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 26 of 51 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edmen Shahbazyan | 0 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 26 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 14 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 2 | Edmen Shahbazyan | 0 | 34 of 72 | 47% | 34 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 12 of 26 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 54 of 107 | 50% | 31 of 78 | 20 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 37 of 72 | 7 of 10 | 10 of 25 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 23 of 48 | 47% | 6 of 24 | 11 of 18 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edmen Shahbazyan | 20 of 35 | 57% | 4 of 16 | 13 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 11 of 22 | 50% | 1 of 8 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Edmen Shahbazyan | 34 of 72 | 47% | 27 of 62 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 40 | 4 of 7 | 10 of 25 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 12 of 26 | 46% | 5 of 16 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Shahbazyan (-280), Lungiambula (+235)
Round 1
Once a surging contender, Shahbazyan (11-3, 4-3 UFC) has his back against the wall after three straight humbling losses. The 25-year-old took a long time off and changed camps from Glendale Fighting Club to Xtreme Couture in hopes of a new beginning, and this path will officially start when he faces fellow powerhouse Lungiambula (11-5, 2-4 UFC). This fight that could last 15 seconds or 15 minutes will be officiated by referee Chris Tognoni, who observes the two men touching gloves first. Shahbazyan leads off with a jab, and he swats away a body kick. Two punches come over the top from “The Golden Boy,” who follows the strikes with a low kick. Lungiambula swings and misses with a kick, and the fighters in alternating stands hand-fight without throwing much. Shahbazyan stings his man with a right hand over the top, but it is one-and-done without any subsequent effort. Shahbazyan dodges a counter and lands two right hands to the head and body, and Lungiambula springs into action and leaps in with heavy swatting punches. Shahbazyan works the body with a right hand and a kick, hoping to take some of the power out of the man known as “Champion.” Lungiambula blocks a head kick, and they both get off loud body kicks. Shahbazyan swings a kick to the midsection and then goes up high with the other leg, and he ducks out of the way when looping hooks fly over his head. Lungiambula sits down on a thudding body kick, and Shahbazyan answers him in their slow-paced version of Paco vs. Frank Dux from “Bloodsport.” Unlike that fight, Lungiambula choose to shoot in for a takedown, and Shahbazyan bounces off the fence as he hops away to defend it. Shahbazyan turns him around in the clinch and knees to the body are traded, and the two stall out in this position with short strikes offered from each. Shahbazyan partially absorbs a knee to the groin, complains, and when that falls on deaf ears, he pushes off. After the lull in action, Shahbazyan dodges a head kick just in the nick of time. Lungiambula swings for the bleachers, falling over in the process, catching Shahbazyan with a few punches but missing with most. The horn sounds, and Lungiambula throws one more punch that misses by a matter of inches, and Tognoni admonishes him.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Round 2
The middleweights meet in the middle without a glove touch this time, and Lungiambula reintroduces him with a whipping kick to the ribs. Lungiambula chases with a one-two, and he stuns Shahbazyan with a short right hand. Shahbazyan answers with a power right of his own, and Lungiambula ignores it and throws his whole body into a looping left hand that misses the mark widely. Lungiambula cracks his man with a left hand, and the punch bounces off the head and hits the groin in an unusual ricochet. Shahbazyan is upset with the perceived foul, and Tognoni calls it and lets Shahbazyan recover. They get back to it after about a minute break, and they continue to swing single haymakers at one another. When they clash together throwing so hard, Shahbazyan connects with a knee to the chin, and Lungiambula answers with a head kick that wobbles “The Golden Boy.” Lungiambula slowly plods forward as Shahbazyan skirts away on the outside, and he wings power strikes with bad intentions. Shahbazyan responds with a right hook and a body kick, and he gets back on his bike. Lungiambula walks him down and connects twice, and he smacks the body with a kick. Shahbazyan fires off a right hand and a head kick, and Lungiambula dives forward after taking a subsequent body shot for a level change.
Shahbazyan answers this with a ferocious knee right on the chin, and Lungiambula is stung. Shahbazyan unleashes a fury of knees and punches, knocking Lungiambula against the wall and hurting him badly. Lungiambula loosely responds with a right hook that misses the mark, and Shahbazyan blasts him with a knee and is on him like a cheap suit, forcing a desperate Lungiambula to his knees. Shahbazyan unloads with punches to the side of the head as he tries to put his man away, and Lungiambula is stuck and just trying to protect himself without moving.
This is enough for Tognoni to intervene, as he feels “Champion” is no longer intelligently defending himself. Shahbazyan claims that he is back, and that he is “Vegas Edmen” now, having put an end to a rough skid with a second-round stoppage.
The Official Result
Edmen Shahbazyan def. Dalcha Lungiambula R2 4:41 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Shahbazyan despite his three-fight losing streak, because Lungiambula has terrible cardio and tends to gas out after wrestling. He notes that Shahbazyan's takedown defense is suspect (57%) and Lungiambula is a judo black belt who could take him down, but Lungiambula's tendency to exhaust himself makes him vulnerable. Angelo warns not to put Shahbazyan in parlays as he could be a parlay buster.
Big Brady picks Edmen Shahbazyan, noting the significant step down in competition. He highlights Shahbazyan's power and well-rounded skills, while criticizing Lungiambula's poor gas tank and low volume. He expects Shahbazyan to win by second round knockout, possibly by wrestling to tire Lungiambula.
Cody picks Shahbazyan, citing his talent and that he has moved to a new gym (Extreme Couture). He thinks Lungiambula is a gatekeeper on a losing streak and that Shahbazyan should win if he doesn't gas. He notes Shahbazyan's previous losses were to top competition and that this is a step down.
Daniel Levi picks Edmen Shahbazyan but with low confidence, calling him a 'fraud past the first round.' He notes Shahbazyan is a potent first-round finisher but has broken every time he's gone past the first round. Levi acknowledges Dalcha Lungiambula's power and experience in later rounds, but thinks Shahbazyan may catch him early. He warns against laying the -280 price and says if Shahbazyan doesn't finish in the first, he will likely quit. Levi picks Shahbazyan by first-round finish but advises against betting him.
Lock is on the inside the distance line for Shahbazyan, agreeing with the co-host that this is a good jumping-off point to buy in at $1.35. He thinks the move to Extreme Couture was the best thing for his career, and that the team will help him remember what he's good at and how to get finishes. He expects a rejuvenated version of Shahbazyan and believes he will put together a couple of good wins, though he doesn't expect a huge bump immediately.
Paul picks Shahbazyan but is scared off by the price. He notes Lungiambula has power and could land a shot, but thinks Shahbazyan should win. He is not confident enough to lay the juice.
The MMA Guru picks Edmen Shahbazyan over Dalcha Lungiambula, despite initially considering the underdog. He notes that Shahbazyan's losses are to top competition like Nassourdine Imavov and Jack Hermansson, and he looked impressive against Brad Tavares. He believes Shahbazyan has improved his grappling and training at Extreme Couture with Ankalaev, and will survive an early storm to win by TKO in the second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 17 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 13 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 16 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 1 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 17 of 35 | 48% | 8 of 25 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 11 of 22 | 50% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 11 of 28 | 39% | 3 of 19 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 6 of 7 | 85% | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dalcha Lungiambula, citing his power, takedown defense, and durability. He notes Soriano's poor takedown defense and that Lungiambula looked great in his last fight before a bad decision. He placed a half-unit moneyline bet and plans an inside the distance decision no action bet.
Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by decision. He notes that both fighters have poor cardio, but Soriano's is slightly better. He thinks Soriano wins the first round and may take over later. He mentions that Soriano has better finishing ability but expects the fight to go to decision due to both fighters' durability. He does not recommend betting Soriano at -275.
Cody picks Soriano but with low confidence, noting that both fighters are untrustworthy. He acknowledges Soriano's durability and power, but also his poor wrestling and cardio. He believes Soriano's chin and training at a world-class gym give him an edge, but he won't bet this fight.
Daniel Levi leans Punahele Soriano but is not confident at the -225 price. He notes both fighters have knockout power and that Soriano is cleaner and more well-rounded, but Lungiambula is dangerous. He considers it closer than the odds suggest and wants more info on sparring sessions before committing.
Paul also picks Soriano but with hesitation, citing Lungiambula's tendency to gas out and make mistakes. He notes that Soriano has a good chin and has shown improvement. However, he agrees the -240 price is too steep and will not bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano over Dalcha Lungiambula, citing Soriano's toughness and power. He notes Lungiambula's poor cardio and that Soriano is difficult to finish. He predicts Soriano will catch Lungiambula with body shots and knees in the clinch, leading to a second-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Brundage | 0 | 29 of 56 | 51% | 50 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Brundage | 0 | 29 of 56 | 51% | 50 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Brundage | 29 of 56 | 51% | 26 of 52 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 15 of 25 | 8 of 15 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 4 of 8 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Brundage | 29 of 56 | 51% | 26 of 52 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 15 of 25 | 8 of 15 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 4 of 8 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
For all the accolades about the power of the man known as “Champion” Lungiambula (11-3, 2-2 UFC), his career knockout rate stands at just 45% and he has finished one fight due to strikes in the last four years. He will be coming to blows with Brundage (6-2, 0-1 UFC), a man that dropped his promotional debut in September and will try to get things going in this middleweight affair. Referee Mark Smith draws the charge, sits back as the fighters do not touch gloves, and watches on when they take the center of the cage to meet. The 185ers come out cautious, with no landed strikes until Brundage darts in 25 seconds into the round to land two punches. Lungiambula pushes off, gets warned for outstretching his fingers, and Brundage dips back and scores a low kick. Lungiambula surges forward with a looping left hand, and Brundage slips the strike, ducks down and grabs hold of a single-leg takedown. Lungiambula drops to a knee, and he latches on to a guillotine choke to defend the setup, and instead elects to slug Brundage in the face a few times. The punches might have hurt Brundage, as Lungiambula muscles him around and drops him down to his knees. Lungiambula stuffs the takedown as he continues to pound on the side of Brundage’s head, staying sprawled and smacking him with strikes. Lungiambula lets go with a short barrage as both men stand up, and Brundage finds himself stuck against the fence absorbing a big bombardment of blows. Several uppercuts hurt Brundage badly, who relies on his head movement and even sneaks up a spinning back fist to try to get Lungiambula off of him. Lungiambula drills his man with several knees to the top of the head when Brundage is bent over, and “Champion” keeps swinging as Smith looks on close and considers intervening. The South African changes things up as he might not want to punch himself out, and he grabs hold of a double-leg takedown and puts Brundage on the mat.
This is the worst decision possible for Lungiambula, who was on his way to a 10-8 round, as Brundage latches on to a guillotine choke and closes the guard tightly. Lungiambula is suddenly in a bad, bad way, and he wriggles but is in a rough position and unable to break the grip. Seconds before, Lungiambula was close to recording a finish of his own, but he now finds himself tapping out to the choke before going out.
What a mighty turn of events, and Lungiambula may be kicking himself later for that level change.
The Official Result
Cody Brundage def. Dalcha Lungiambula R1 3:41 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Cody Brundage to get his first UFC win, but is nervous about Dalcha Lungiambula's knockout power. He notes that Brundage needs to grapple and wear out Dalcha, while Dalcha is low volume and has a negative striking differential. He prefers to bet the over 1.5 rounds rather than the moneyline.
Big Brady picks Dalcha Lungiambula to win by second-round knockout. He highlights Lungiambula's strength, takedown defense (75%), and power, noting that Brundage will struggle to get the fight to the mat. He expects Brundage to gas out if his takedowns are stuffed, and then Lungiambula will knock him out. He references Lungiambula's improved cardio from his last fight.
Cody leans Brundage, citing his wrestling advantage. He notes Lungiambula's poor grappling defense and believes Brundage can take him down and control. He is not confident due to Brundage's chin issues.
Daniel Levi picks Dalcha Lungiambula, explaining that while Cody Brundage has a D2 wrestling background, he gets discouraged when takedowns don't work. Levi believes Dolce has African power and will dig deeper when both guys are tired. He thinks Brundage may land a takedown or two, but Dolce's willingness to push through will prevail.
Lungiambula has power and clinch work, and is training at Sanford MMA. Brundage has shown poor fight IQ and cardio issues. The fight is expected to be grapple-heavy, with Lungiambula controlling the clinch and grinding out a decision. The over 2.5 rounds is also favored.
Paul leans Lungiambula, citing his power and durability. He notes Brundage's chin issues and believes Lungiambula can land a big shot. He is not confident.
The MMA Guru picks Dalcha Lungiambula over Cody Brundage, noting that Brundage has a grappling background but Lungiambula has shown good scrambling and takedown defense. He references that Ankalaev only got one takedown on Lungiambula and opted to stand, indicating no massive grappling hole. He predicts Lungiambula will stuff takedowns, land ground-and-pound elbows, and finish by third-round TKO as Brundage gasses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc-André Barriault | 0 | 85 of 217 | 39% | 87 of 219 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 118 of 289 | 40% | 128 of 299 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marc-André Barriault | 0 | 10 of 33 | 30% | 10 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 15 of 55 | 27% | 17 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Marc-André Barriault | 0 | 32 of 82 | 39% | 32 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 38 of 96 | 39% | 38 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Marc-André Barriault | 0 | 43 of 102 | 42% | 45 of 104 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 65 of 138 | 47% | 73 of 146 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc-André Barriault | 85 of 217 | 39% | 60 of 185 | 21 of 26 | 4 of 6 | 64 of 185 | 21 of 32 | 0 of 0 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 118 of 289 | 40% | 80 of 233 | 24 of 40 | 14 of 16 | 93 of 250 | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marc-André Barriault | 10 of 33 | 30% | 7 of 26 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 15 of 55 | 27% | 9 of 42 | 3 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marc-André Barriault | 32 of 82 | 39% | 19 of 69 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 73 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 38 of 96 | 39% | 19 of 70 | 13 of 19 | 6 of 7 | 34 of 90 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marc-André Barriault | 43 of 102 | 42% | 34 of 90 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 30 of 80 | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 65 of 138 | 47% | 52 of 121 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 45 of 107 | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Marc-André Barriault to win by third-round knockout, confident. He highlights Barriault's high volume (5.36 sig strikes/min) and cardio advantage over Lungiambula, who has low output and poor striking defense. Barriault has solid takedown defense (72%) and get-up game, while Lungiambula may have early takedown success but will fade. Brady expects Barriault to overwhelm Lungiambula with volume and finish late.
Cody picks Barriault by decision, citing his improved cardio and volume since moving to Sanford MMA. He notes Lungiambula's low volume and reliance on takedowns, but thinks Barriault's takedown defense and scrambling will allow him to get back up and outwork Lungiambula. He expects a unanimous decision win.
I bet Barriault for a couple of units. Dalcha is explosive but only works in bursts; his output is low and predictable. Barriault has elite output, elite cardio, and ridiculous durability. He's shown he can get up from takedowns against good wrestlers. Dalcha's cardio is suspect, especially at 185. I expect Barriault to take over as the fight goes on and likely finish in round three or win a decision. I like Barriault by decision and Barriault round three.
Paul agrees with Cody, liking Barriault to get the job done. He notes Barriault's pace and volume, and thinks Lungiambula will either get tired or be knocked out. He sees Barriault winning by decision or late stoppage.
The MMA Guru picks Marc-André Barriault to win by decision. He believes Barriault's granite chin, cardio, and pressure will overwhelm Lungiambula, who relies on a big overhand and has poor performances. He notes Barriault's experience and ability to push a pace, knee the legs, and punch the body. He thinks if Barriault avoids an early KO, he will dominate.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 29 of 65 | 44% | 61 of 98 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 6:46 |
| Markus Perez | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 50 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 4:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
| Markus Perez | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 2 | Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 33 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:43 |
| Markus Perez | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Markus Perez | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 24 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 29 of 65 | 44% | 17 of 47 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 34 | 5 of 8 | 19 of 23 |
| Markus Perez | 25 of 49 | 51% | 7 of 26 | 15 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 18 of 37 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dalcha Lungiambula | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 |
| Markus Perez | 5 of 13 | 38% | 1 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dalcha Lungiambula | 15 of 28 | 53% | 7 of 17 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 17 |
| Markus Perez | 6 of 10 | 60% | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dalcha Lungiambula | 6 of 22 | 27% | 2 of 16 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Markus Perez | 14 of 26 | 53% | 5 of 14 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 18 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady notes the huge line movement from Dalcha opening at -350 to now -135, which he finds interesting. He thinks Dalcha has power and better striking, while Markus Perez has a legit ground game but may not be able to get takedowns. He predicts a close decision win for Dalcha, possibly by knockout, as he believes Dalcha will land the harder shots.
The host leans towards Markus Perez because he believes Perez has a more complete game and better kicks, which will make it hard for Dalcha to close distance. However, he is concerned about Perez's chin after a recent KO loss and Dalcha's power. He thinks Perez wins by decision but is not confident enough to bet at +115.
The MMA Guru picks Dalcha Lungiambula to win by first-round KO. He notes Lungiambula's takedown defense (stuffing 2 of 3 against Ankalaev), brute strength, and power as a massive middleweight coming down from light heavyweight. He expects Perez to try takedowns but get starched. He also mentions Lungiambula previously KO'd Alan Baudot, who Tom Aspinall also KO'd.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 44 of 67 | 65% | 91 of 123 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 5:34 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 28 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 5 of 20 | 25% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 22 of 25 | 88% | 61 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:25 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 44 of 67 | 65% | 28 of 45 | 12 of 16 | 4 of 6 | 23 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 18 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 6 of 26 | 23% | 4 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 20 of 37 | 54% | 10 of 22 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 18 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 5 of 20 | 25% | 4 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 22 of 25 | 88% | 16 of 18 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 18 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 1 | 32 of 43 | 74% | 64 of 80 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 7:45 |
| Dequan Townsend | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 32 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 17 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:18 |
| Dequan Townsend | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 27 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:12 |
| Dequan Townsend | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 21 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dalcha Lungiambula | 1 | 16 of 19 | 84% | 20 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Dequan Townsend | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 32 of 43 | 74% | 22 of 30 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 26 |
| Dequan Townsend | 13 of 30 | 43% | 8 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dalcha Lungiambula | 6 of 10 | 60% | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Dequan Townsend | 5 of 14 | 35% | 2 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dalcha Lungiambula | 10 of 14 | 71% | 5 of 7 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
| Dequan Townsend | 7 of 13 | 53% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Dalcha Lungiambula | 16 of 19 | 84% | 15 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 |
| Dequan Townsend | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
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