UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang · Aug 31, 2019 · Welterweight · Completed
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Age 38
Height 6' 0"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 11"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Li Jingliang
4.46 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.95 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.19 TD Avg
41.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
4.16 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
3.56 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.79 TD Avg
20.0% TD Acc.
67.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Li Jingliang - Fight History
LOSS vs Carlos Prates
KO (punches) R2 4:02 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Prates 0 41 of 111 36% 41 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Li Jingliang 3 55 of 84 65% 55 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Prates 0 26 of 66 39% 26 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Li Jingliang 1 25 of 36 69% 25 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Carlos Prates 0 15 of 45 33% 15 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Li Jingliang 2 30 of 48 62% 30 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Prates 41 of 111 36% 12 of 64 4 of 10 25 of 37 41 of 111 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 55 of 84 65% 44 of 70 1 of 3 10 of 11 55 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Prates 26 of 66 39% 7 of 38 4 of 9 15 of 19 26 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 25 of 36 69% 18 of 27 1 of 2 6 of 7 25 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Prates 15 of 45 33% 5 of 26 0 of 1 10 of 18 15 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 30 of 48 62% 26 of 43 0 of 1 4 of 4 30 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Angelo is confident Carlos Prates will win, citing his dangerous striking, power, range control, and eight consecutive knockout wins. He thinks Prates is faster and cleaner on the feet than Li Jingliang, who is older and coming off a two-year layoff. His only hesitation is Li's durability, but he believes Prates will find his spot and finish him.

"Carlos prattes is going to be the pick and uh this is just a really tough welcome back after a two-year layoff for Jing Lang Lee."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by decision. He notes Prates is a hot prospect from Fighting Nerds with a lot of hype, but this is a step up in competition. He highlights red flags for Li Jingliang: a long layoff (almost 2 years), a spine surgery, and age (36). He believes Prates will do better work across 15 minutes, landing bigger shots and having more moments. He acknowledges Li is next-level tough and durable, so he doesn't expect a knockout, but thinks Prates will outpoint him.

decision
"I'm going to take proess to win this fight and I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Li Jingliang

Cody likes Jingliang's forward pressure, durability, and experience, but is concerned about his two-year layoff and major back surgery. He notes that Prates is a low-volume striker who relies on knockouts, and that Jingliang's chin and volume could cause problems. However, he admits the red flags are significant and calls it a PRP pick.

"I'm actually going to take Jing leang Lee but it'll be the PRP pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Vreeland picks Prates, highlighting his pattern of downloading information before finishing opponents. He notes Prates' superior range control and length advantage over Li. He predicts a knockout, specifically a body shot, as Li is notoriously durable but Prates will pick him apart.

Knockout by body shot (prediction, no line mentioned)
"PES is the pick here download and then probably knock out right yeah I I think although Lee is notoriously not a real easy guy to knock out um but I I wouldn't be surprised listen to this prediction I'm …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Daniel Vreeland picks Carlos Prates to win, predicting he will be the first to knock out Li Jingliang. He highlights Prates' reach advantage, power, and patient striking style, while noting that Li Jingliang is coming off a layoff and may have declined. Vreeland acknowledges the price is high but believes Prates is the rightful favorite.

"I'm calling him to be the first person to knock out uh the leech first time he ever gets knocked out"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Fox agrees with Prates, noting his ability to download information and finish. He contrasts Prates' disciplined striking with Li's shorter reach and comfort issues on the feet. He believes Prates controls range better than Daniel Rodriguez and will pick Li apart easily.

"I think pret controls range far better than Daniel Rodriguez who sometimes like gets a little sloppy and mixes it up in a drawing pattern like press is a guy who isn't going to braw he's gonna pick you apart …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

The host leans to Prates, citing his technical striking, takedown defense, and activity. He notes Li's power and experience but is concerned about Li's long layoff and spine injury. He expects Prates to win by decision, but warns that a Li knockout would not surprise him.

Prates by decision
"I'm still going to lean prz ... I'm going to go proess by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Paul discusses Prates' smoking habit and low volume, and Jingliang's spinal issues, concluding that the fight is a pass. He notes that Prates has knockout power but questions his cardio and grappling, while Jingliang's wrestling is a big if due to his back. Paul does not make a clear pick.

"I think it's pretty clearly a pass and watch Lee get absolutely folded"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Prates over Li Jingliang. He notes that Li has been out for nearly two years due to a broken back and is 36 years old, making it hard to come back. He acknowledges Prates has losses but has been on a run since 2019, beating Trevin Giles and Charles Radtke. He expects Prates to win a 29-28 decision with cleaner shots. He expresses concern about Li's injuries and age.

29-28 decision
"I'm gonna go with Carlos prates over Le Jing leang which hurts but I'm just not going to trust in Le Jing leang to come back"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Rodriguez 0 78 of 175 44% 78 of 175 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
Li Jingliang 0 88 of 185 47% 89 of 186 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Rodriguez 0 27 of 54 50% 27 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Li Jingliang 0 20 of 40 50% 20 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Rodriguez 0 24 of 59 40% 24 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
Li Jingliang 0 34 of 66 51% 35 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Rodriguez 0 27 of 62 43% 27 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Li Jingliang 0 34 of 79 43% 34 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Rodriguez 78 of 175 44% 25 of 103 23 of 34 30 of 38 78 of 174 0 of 0 0 of 1
Li Jingliang 88 of 185 47% 54 of 140 17 of 23 17 of 22 88 of 185 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Rodriguez 27 of 54 50% 7 of 29 8 of 11 12 of 14 27 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 20 of 40 50% 10 of 27 6 of 7 4 of 6 20 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Daniel Rodriguez 24 of 59 40% 8 of 33 5 of 10 11 of 16 24 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 1
Li Jingliang 34 of 66 51% 19 of 45 5 of 8 10 of 13 34 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Daniel Rodriguez 27 of 62 43% 10 of 41 10 of 13 7 of 8 27 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 34 of 79 43% 25 of 68 6 of 8 3 of 3 34 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting he will be bigger, more powerful, and more accurate. He thinks Holland's accuracy is laser-pinpoint and he has a grappling advantage if the fight goes to the ground. He acknowledges Rodriguez is more technical but believes Holland's power and accuracy will be the difference.

"I am going to go with Kevin here I think he's going to be bigger I think he's going to be more powerful I think he's more accurate I don't think he's the more technical striker but I do think …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by decision, citing Holland's seven-inch reach advantage and superior technical striking. He acknowledges Daniel Rodriguez's toughness and volume but notes Rodriguez has not faced a striker of Holland's caliber. He expects a competitive fight but believes Holland's power and reach will be decisive.

"It's Kevin Holland for me here I'll say Kevin Holland by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Cody is leaning towards Tony Ferguson as a dog, noting that Li Jingliang is an average fighter who struggles as a favorite. He believes Ferguson's competition level is much higher and that the move to welterweight helps Ferguson. He likes the under 1.5 takedowns for Li on PrizePicks, as he doesn't think Li will shoot. He picks Ferguson at +270.

Li Jingliang under 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"i'm leaning towards ferguson so for the purpose of this show at plus 270 ferguson will be my pick"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Daniel Levi leans Kevin Holland in this catchweight bout. He cites Holland's seven-inch reach advantage and six-year age edge, plus his speed at the new weight class. However, he worries about Holland's reckless charges and poor takedown defense, and acknowledges Rodriguez's boxing and counter-punching. Levi says it's a tough call and he wouldn't be surprised if Rodriguez wins.

Over 2.5 rounds at -110 mentioned as a possibility
"I lean kevin holland but it would not surprise me one bit to see uh danielle rodriguez come out here and get this dove."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Jacob picks Daniel Rodriguez, comparing it to the Nathaniel Wood vs Charles Jourdain fight where the more technical striker won. He thinks Rodriguez's technical boxing will give Holland issues, as Holland has not faced a technical striker like Rodriguez. He notes Holland's wins are against lesser competition and Rodriguez will piece him up.

"I see this exactly and I mean to a T like the Nathaniel Wood and Charles Jourdain fight... Daniel Rodriguez is the Nathaniel Wood of this matchup he's going to be the more technical striker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Li Jingliang

The host leans Li Jingliang but is tempted by Tony Ferguson as a live underdog. He expects Li to win by KO but notes Ferguson's durability and submission threat. He warns against parlaying Li and suggests the KO line at +110.

Li Jingliang by KO (+110)
"I am picking Lee to win by KO but it's such a close fight... I would rather point you towards this KO line at +110."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul picks Tony Ferguson, agreeing that Li Jingliang is overrated as a favorite. He notes Ferguson's speed, volume, and grappling advantage, and that Li's takedown defense is not a concern. He believes Ferguson's experience against top competition gives him the edge, and that Li's path to victory is a lucky punch. He is surprised by the size of the dog odds.

"i think tony ferguson has a solid shot here and i'm actually just surprised like the size of dog that he is"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Li Jingliang

The MMA Guru picks Li Jingliang to win by TKO at the end of the second round. He describes Li coming out with leg kicks, while Rodriguez gets his jab going. Rodriguez lands better punches in the first round, but Li takes them well. In round two, Li's pressure increases, and after Rodriguez commits to shots, Li dips under and lands a left hook, putting Rodriguez down and finishing with TKO.

TKO at the end of the second round
"Legion Liang sees him coming dips under it lands a big shot lands a left hook and puts down d-rod and finishes him by TKO at the end of the second round"
TKO (punches and elbows) R2 4:38 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Li Jingliang 1 38 of 87 43% 40 of 91 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Muslim Salikhov 0 23 of 56 41% 33 of 67 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Li Jingliang 0 11 of 36 30% 12 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Muslim Salikhov 0 11 of 22 50% 21 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
2 Li Jingliang 1 27 of 51 52% 28 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Muslim Salikhov 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 34 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Li Jingliang 38 of 87 43% 13 of 49 12 of 18 13 of 20 30 of 75 6 of 8 2 of 4
Muslim Salikhov 23 of 56 41% 18 of 48 3 of 6 2 of 2 20 of 51 0 of 1 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Li Jingliang 11 of 36 30% 2 of 19 1 of 4 8 of 13 11 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
Muslim Salikhov 11 of 22 50% 8 of 17 1 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 18 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 Li Jingliang 27 of 51 52% 11 of 30 11 of 14 5 of 7 19 of 40 6 of 7 2 of 4
Muslim Salikhov 12 of 34 35% 10 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jingliang Li vs. Muslim Salikhov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Salikhov (-175), Li (+150)

Round 1
A place in the top 15 at the ultra-competitive welterweight division will serve as the prize for this “featured” fight of the night. Already the #14 fighter according to the UFC, China’s Li (18-7, 10-5 UFC) will try to keep an iron grip on his ranking spot against the confidently nicknamed “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov (18-2, 5-1 UFC). While Salikhov has earned two-thirds of his career wins by knockout, “The Leech” has never been stopped by strikes, although Salikhov will put that to the test. Referee Dan Miragliotta keeps things on the up-and-up, even as gloves are touched before his eyes. Both fighters circle one another for a time, until Li sits down on a single leg kick. Salikhov answers him with a spinning wheel kick that hammers into the guard. A lull in the action again ensues, until Li darts forward with two looping punches. When those do not land, a leg kick does. Li jabs to the body, and he lifts his leg up but Salikhov still kicks it and makes him spin around. Salikhov jumps with a knee, and then spins with an untelegraphed spinning back kick that Li jumps back and avoids. The spinning strikes are likely going to be the weapon of choice for the Dagestan native for much of this fight. As Li kicks low, Salikhov rushes forward, lifts up the leg and slams the Chinese fighter down to the mat. Li keeps his guard high and tight, shutting down most of the offense that could come at him, and this draws a warning from Miragliotta. Salikhov stacks Li up to break out of the guard, and Li smacks Salikhov with an illegal but uncalled upkick. Salikhov stands back up, and he spins with a back kick that partially lands on the body. Salikhov checks a kick and is well out of harm’s way when Li throws one high. Salikhov swarms forward, but he backs off as Li is ready to greet him with a short right hand. The spinning back fist from Salikhov misses the mark, as Li anticipates it. A spinning back kick from the Russian connects with the arm of his foe, and Li bounces back and forth until trying to sweep the leg. Li wings a left hook, and Salikhov is slick and avoiding everything that soars at or past him. Salikhov sinks a leg kick home on the inside of the knee, and he stuffs an oncoming takedown as the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov

Round 2
The welterweights touch ‘em up to start off the second round, and crowd is ready for action and possibly spoiled due to the madness from the Mudaerji-Schnell fight. These two answer the call with a few big punches, and Salikhov catches a leg and knocks Li off his feet with a big left hand. When Li gets up, he just manages to avoid a spinning wheel kick that would have knocked his block off. Li continues coming forward, avoiding a few punches on the way in and swinging his way to close the distance. Salikhov sneaks away but absorbs a jab on the way out. Salikhov come up short with an uppercut from the “Mortal Kombat” playbook, and Li thanks his lucky stars that he did not absorb that momentous blow. The accuracy rates are likely low in this match, as both men are putting almost everything into one-hitter quitters. Li misses with a winging punch, and Salikhov answers him with a low kick. Salikhov checks another kick, and he finds himself facing a body lock takedown attempt. Li manages to wrestle him down, where he lands in half guard but cannot keep him there for more than a few seconds. Salikhov gets up and does not absorb any damage or find himself in danger from any submission, and he plants a one-two on the chin as Li leans over to avoid it. The spinning kick from Salikhov is slower than before, and Li sees it coming from a distance and keeps that distance to avoid it. Li looks for a short counter as Salikhov blitzes him, and Salikhov still connects with a clean right. The spinning kick for Salikhov grazes off the midsection, with Li bouncing back to evade the brunt of the damage.
Li, irritated by the pace, winds up with a monstrous right hand that slams straight into the face of the “King of Kung Fu.” Salikhov is in a bad way as he staggers back, and Li gives him chase and nails him with another. When Salikhov is about to gather himself, Li bullies him back to the wall and ducks down with a jab to the body. Li lets go with a left hook and follows it with a destructive right that sends Salikhov collapsing down to the mat. Knowing the finish is in sight, “The Leech” leaps down and sucks the life out of Salikhov with a pair of ferocious elbows.
Seeing that Salikhov is done like dinner, Miragliotta moves in and stops the fight, even as Salikhov sits up and shrugs at the finishing sequence. This is a solid bounceback victory for Li, who leaps to the top of the cage and holds a Chinese flag high.

The Official Result
Jingliang Li def. Muslim Salikhov R2 4:38 via TKO (Punches and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

Angelo picks Muslim Salikhov confidently, citing his technical striking, power, and takedown threats. He dismisses Li Jingliang as overrated and notes Salikhov's win over Trinaldo. He placed a moneyline bet at -170 and hopes for line movement.

moneyline bet at -170
"i think salakov absolutely gets this done i like the technical striking i like the power i like the takedown threats i think salkov is a clear win i got a money line bet on him at minus 170"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Li Jingliang

Big Brady picks Li Jingliang (the Leech) to win by decision, taking the underdog. He notes that Salikhov is a great striker but has low volume and poor cardio, while Li has better cardio and volume. He thinks Li can take over as the fight goes on and possibly mix in takedowns. He admits it's a tough fight to pick and has low confidence.

"i'm gonna take the dog here in the leech to get it done not a ton of confidence"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Li Jingliang

Cody is leaning towards Li Jingliang as an underdog, citing Salikhov's low volume, questionable cardio, and history of pulling out of fights. He notes that Li has never been knocked out in the UFC and brings a high pace that could overwhelm Salikhov. However, he admits he doesn't have high confidence and acknowledges Salikhov's path to victory via takedowns.

"i think i'm going to take another underdog shot here on the leech but something i don't have a ton of confidence"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

Daniel Levi leans Muslim Salikhov, citing his discipline, counter-striking, and improved wrestling. He acknowledges Li Jingliang's knockout power and durability but believes Salikhov can win a decision by pacing himself and avoiding brawls. Levi notes Salikhov must be careful of Li's power and that the fight is high variance.

decision win likely; counter-heavy approach
"i'm leaning salak off here it's just i know what we're up against"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

Paul picks Salikhov, believing he can mix in takedowns to exploit Li's ground game, as seen in Li's losses to Khamzat Chimaev and others. He notes Salikhov's striking is excellent and that he has shown the ability to take down opponents like Francisco Trinaldo. Paul thinks Salikhov's path to victory is clear and that he covers the -160 price.

Salikhov over 1.5 takedowns
"i think salikov if he can mix in those takedowns steal rounds make it a little bit greasy in that respect i think he covers his price at minus 160"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Li Jingliang

The MMA Guru picks Li Jingliang over Muslim Salikhov, citing Li's power, chin, and cardio advantage. He notes Salikhov's age (38) and unimpressive recent performances, including a close fight with Francisco Trinaldo. He believes Li's unorthodox striking and durability will lead to a decision win or a late finish.

"i'm gonna go with lee jing liang muslim salakov although very good maybe in his heyday back in the 80s um he is 38 years of age"
LOSS vs Khamzat Chimaev
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:16 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Li Jingliang 0 25 of 25 100% 58 of 62 1 of 2 50% 3 0 3:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Li Jingliang 0 25 of 25 100% 58 of 62 1 of 2 50% 3 0 3:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 25 of 25 100% 25 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 24 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 25 of 25 100% 25 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 24 of 24
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by second-round submission. He is very confident, citing Chimaev's dominant performances and wrestling. Li has poor takedown defense (59%) and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. The only concerns are Chimaev's cardio if the fight extends and the layoff, but he expects an early finish. He agrees with the line.

Chimaev by submission (round 2)
"Give me comments that you may have and give me comments that you might have to to win i'll say i'll say submission i'll say second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Cody is all in on Chimaev, noting the layoff might have improved his cardio. He thinks Chimaev's pace and wrestling will be too much for Li, who has poor takedown defense (59%). He expects Chimaev to take him down at will and grind him out. He calls it a 'perfect stylistic matchup'.

"this is just such a stylistical perfect matchup"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Daniel picks Khamzat Chimaev, citing his wrestling and power. He acknowledges Li Jingliang's knockout power and history of upsets but believes Chimaev's wrestling will be a big factor. Daniel notes Li takes damage early and has been dropped in fights. He expects Chimaev to grind out a win, possibly by late ground-and-pound stoppage, but warns the line is too high to bet.

comments on line being too high to bet
"i'm gonna stay away from a betting thing i'm gonna just enjoy this one because the line's just too much"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Chimaev should dominate with his wrestling and pressure, but there are concerns about his recovery from COVID and potential cardio issues. He likely finishes early, so the under 1.5 rounds or inside distance are better bets than the moneyline. Li is durable and could capitalize if Chimaev fades.

Chimaev inside distance -165, under 1.5 rounds -110, live bet on Li if fight goes to round 2.
"If you're betting chemiev you might as well take the under one and a half because that's more than likely the way that he wins."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Paul is confident in Chimaev, calling it a 'smash full out'. He notes Li has been taken down by Neil Magny and others, and Chimaev's wrestling will dominate. He thinks the moneyline is safer than inside distance because Chimaev mixes KOs and submissions. He would be stunned if Chimaev loses.

Inside distance -175 (considered but not chosen)
"hamzat hamzat smash um i would be pretty stunned to see him lose this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The MMA Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by submission. He highlights Chimaev's superior grappling and size, noting that Li Jingliang has been outgrappled by lesser grapplers like Neil Magny, Jake Matthews, and Sean Brady. He thinks Chimaev's wrestling and pressure will make Li hesitant to throw. He predicts a second-round rear-naked choke after Chimaev outgrapples Li.

submission in the second round
"she may have outgrapples lee jingliang submits him in the second round with like punches to like a rear naked choke"
KO (punch) R1 4:25 · UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar · Jan 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Li Jingliang 0 11 of 18 61% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Santiago Ponzinibbio 1 21 of 50 42% 21 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Li Jingliang 0 11 of 18 61% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Santiago Ponzinibbio 1 21 of 50 42% 21 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Li Jingliang 11 of 18 61% 7 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 4 11 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 21 of 50 42% 6 of 30 3 of 6 12 of 14 20 of 49 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Li Jingliang 11 of 18 61% 7 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 4 11 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 21 of 50 42% 6 of 30 3 of 6 12 of 14 20 of 49 0 of 0 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 10, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, but is hesitant due to the long layoff and injuries. He thinks Ponzinibbio is the much better fighter and will throw more output. He notes that Li has never been knocked out but has been knocked down several times. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a good play but says he won't touch it personally. He finds the -275 line a bit steep.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as good play but not betting)
"i'm going to take ponzinibb to win by decision here but i'll probably wouldn't lay the minus 275 a little bit steep for me"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Daniel Levi leans Santiago Ponzinibbio but conditions his pick on how Ponz looks at weigh-ins due to his serious health layoff. He praises Ponz's calf kicks, straight right, and cardio, and notes Li Jingliang has been knocked down five times. He expects Ponz to set up the straight right with calf kicks, but acknowledges Li's durability and power.

"i got santiago ponzinibbio here but let's pay attention friday see how he looks on the scales"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Ponzinibbio is the more educated striker with a great kicking game, especially leg kicks, which he used to beat Neil Magny. However, he is coming off a two-year layoff due to a knee infection, which raises durability and ring rust concerns. Li Jingliang has power and durability, but his striking is less technical. The best bet is the over 1.5 rounds, as both fighters are durable and have not been finished recently. Ponzinibbio should win a decision if he shows up at 50% of his former self.

Over 1.5 rounds is the preferred play; Ponzinibbio by decision is the prediction.
"the spot that i like most in this fight is the over one and a half"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio over Li Jingliang, citing Ponzinibbio's superior technique, leg kicks, and versatility. He uses MMA math comparing their common opponent Neil Magny, noting Ponzinibbio dropped Magny multiple times while Li was dismantled. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision, expecting Ponzinibbio to tool Li over three rounds without gassing.

"i'm going to go with santiago ponzinibio in a decision 30-27 win"
LOSS vs Neil Magny
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · Mar 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 74 of 139 53% 123 of 188 4 of 7 57% 0 0 5:04
Li Jingliang 0 16 of 62 25% 16 of 65 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 12 of 32 37% 21 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:00
Li Jingliang 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 24 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:18
2 Neil Magny 0 26 of 42 61% 58 of 74 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:17
Li Jingliang 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:07
3 Neil Magny 0 36 of 65 55% 44 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:47
Li Jingliang 0 7 of 35 20% 7 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 74 of 139 53% 56 of 118 12 of 15 6 of 6 34 of 96 18 of 20 22 of 23
Li Jingliang 16 of 62 25% 11 of 50 1 of 3 4 of 9 13 of 53 3 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 12 of 32 37% 7 of 26 4 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 27 3 of 4 1 of 1
Li Jingliang 8 of 23 34% 5 of 15 1 of 2 2 of 6 6 of 19 2 of 4 0 of 0
2 Neil Magny 26 of 42 61% 24 of 40 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 28 13 of 14 0 of 0
Li Jingliang 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Neil Magny 36 of 65 55% 25 of 52 6 of 8 5 of 5 13 of 41 2 of 2 21 of 22
Li Jingliang 7 of 35 20% 5 of 31 0 of 1 2 of 3 7 of 33 0 of 2 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Li Jingliang

Daniel is confident Li Jingliang will dominate Neil Magny, citing Magny's decline and inability to handle pressure and low kicks. He notes that Magny has been blown out by relevant opponents and that his last significant win was half a decade ago. He believes Li will chop Magny down with low kicks and close the distance to hurt him, winning a decision or getting a knockout.

Daniel mentions he would have had a 10-unit play on Luque if Magny had fought him, but now Li gets to feast on the carcass. He picks Li via knockout.
"I'm gonna go with Li Jingliang here via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Magny has a huge reach advantage (80 vs 72 inches) and excellent cardio. He will use his jab, kicks, and occasional takedowns to outpoint Li. Li is powerful but lacks pressure; Magny's veteran savvy should carry him to a decision. The host considered betting Li but sees too many X-factors. He likes Magny at plus money and may bet 0.75 units if odds reach +175.

Bet 0.75 units at +175 or better.
"I like Neil here and I might bet him at the plus 175 range... Neil Magny by decision definitely a live dog."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Li Jingliang

The MMA Guru picks Li Jingliang, citing his recent activity, momentum, and youth advantage over Neil Magny, who hasn't fought since a KO loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio in 2018. He notes Li's win over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos was impressive and expects Li to finish Magny in the second or third round.

finish in the second or third round
"Li Jing Li I'm getting to finish in the second and third round I think he's got it in him"
TKO (punches) R3 4:51 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang · Aug 31, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Li Jingliang 3 59 of 128 46% 59 of 128 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:22
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 54 of 160 33% 55 of 162 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Li Jingliang 1 12 of 23 52% 12 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Li Jingliang 0 24 of 56 42% 24 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 25 of 64 39% 25 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Li Jingliang 2 23 of 49 46% 23 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 18 of 57 31% 19 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Li Jingliang 59 of 128 46% 45 of 108 4 of 6 10 of 14 47 of 113 8 of 11 4 of 4
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 54 of 160 33% 23 of 114 21 of 33 10 of 13 51 of 156 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Li Jingliang 12 of 23 52% 6 of 15 2 of 3 4 of 5 9 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 11 of 39 28% 1 of 22 5 of 11 5 of 6 10 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Li Jingliang 24 of 56 42% 20 of 52 1 of 1 3 of 3 22 of 52 2 of 4 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 25 of 64 39% 10 of 47 11 of 12 4 of 5 23 of 61 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Li Jingliang 23 of 49 46% 19 of 41 1 of 2 3 of 6 16 of 41 3 of 4 4 of 4
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 18 of 57 31% 12 of 45 5 of 10 1 of 2 18 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs David Zawada
TKO (body kick and punches) R3 4:07 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · Nov 24, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Li Jingliang 1 89 of 222 40% 97 of 234 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:16
David Zawada 1 73 of 184 39% 74 of 185 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Li Jingliang 0 13 of 41 31% 21 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:15
David Zawada 1 24 of 55 43% 25 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
2 Li Jingliang 0 40 of 97 41% 40 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
David Zawada 0 31 of 83 37% 31 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Li Jingliang 1 36 of 84 42% 36 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
David Zawada 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Li Jingliang 89 of 222 40% 59 of 183 10 of 11 20 of 28 81 of 204 3 of 12 5 of 6
David Zawada 73 of 184 39% 52 of 159 19 of 23 2 of 2 63 of 162 10 of 20 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Li Jingliang 13 of 41 31% 10 of 36 1 of 2 2 of 3 9 of 31 0 of 6 4 of 4
David Zawada 24 of 55 43% 15 of 46 9 of 9 0 of 0 16 of 40 8 of 13 0 of 2
2 Li Jingliang 40 of 97 41% 23 of 77 6 of 6 11 of 14 40 of 95 0 of 2 0 of 0
David Zawada 31 of 83 37% 22 of 72 8 of 10 1 of 1 30 of 80 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Li Jingliang 36 of 84 42% 26 of 70 3 of 3 7 of 11 32 of 78 3 of 4 1 of 2
David Zawada 18 of 46 39% 15 of 41 2 of 4 1 of 1 17 of 42 1 of 4 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos - Fight History
LOSS vs Neil Magny
KO/TKO R2 4:39 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 42 of 67 62% 80 of 113 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:19
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 20 of 42 47% 42 of 69 1 of 5 20% 0 0 4:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 17 of 36 47% 29 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 18 of 36 50% 24 of 42 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:03
2 Neil Magny 0 25 of 31 80% 51 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:03
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 2 of 6 33% 18 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 42 of 67 62% 38 of 61 4 of 4 0 of 2 19 of 43 3 of 3 20 of 21
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 20 of 42 47% 5 of 24 4 of 5 11 of 13 17 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 17 of 36 47% 13 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 2 16 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 18 of 36 50% 5 of 20 4 of 5 9 of 11 15 of 32 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Neil Magny 25 of 31 80% 25 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 21
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor picks Zaleski, noting that Magny has looked increasingly hurtable and gun-shy, while Zaleski still has power and violence in his game. He acknowledges both fighters may be declining, but Zaleski's underlying physicality and scrambling ability give him the edge. Connor doubts Magny can replicate his past comeback wins.

"I got to pick Zaleski at that point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zane also picks Zaleski, pointing out that Magny's recent performances show a decline in output and durability. He notes that Zaleski has historically struggled against rangy strikers, but Magny's current form may not pose that threat. Zane believes Zaleski's wrestling and scrambling will be too much for Magny to handle.

"I mean, Zaleski's just more dangerous competitive wrestler and scrambler."
LOSS vs Chidi Njokuani
KO R2 2:19 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chidi Njokuani 1 46 of 87 52% 46 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 17 of 49 34% 19 of 54 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chidi Njokuani 0 23 of 45 51% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 9 of 25 36% 11 of 30 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:14
2 Chidi Njokuani 1 23 of 42 54% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chidi Njokuani 46 of 87 52% 17 of 38 16 of 32 13 of 17 36 of 71 2 of 3 8 of 13
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 17 of 49 34% 5 of 28 2 of 5 10 of 16 13 of 44 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chidi Njokuani 23 of 45 51% 3 of 12 13 of 23 7 of 10 22 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 9 of 25 36% 3 of 13 0 of 2 6 of 10 5 of 20 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Chidi Njokuani 23 of 42 54% 14 of 26 3 of 9 6 of 7 14 of 27 1 of 2 8 of 13
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 8 of 24 33% 2 of 15 2 of 3 4 of 6 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Angelo picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos over Chidi Njokuani. He acknowledges Njokuani is a better striker and younger, but he's concerned about Njokuani's volume being a one-off. Angelo trusts Zaleski's durability and wrestling, noting he almost finished Rakhmonov late. He suggests a prop bet on Njokuani winning inside distance with decision no action as a possible alternative.

Chidi Njokuani win inside distance, decision no action
"I'm still going to stay on the zeleski side but only because he's so damn durable."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Big Brady picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, noting that despite being 38, he still has good performances left. He highlights Zaleski's durability, cardio, and grappling advantage, and points out that Chidi Njokuani has a history of quitting when faced with adversity, especially when taken down. Brady believes if Zaleski gets on top or hurts Njokuani, the fight will end quickly. He predicts a second-round finish, either by KO or submission.

Zaleski dos Santos second round KO
"I like zeleski here and I think he finishes cheaty... second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Erceg despite the high price, citing his level of competition and size advantage. He acknowledges Ode Osborne's reach and speed could cause early problems, but expects Erceg to take over as Osborne fades due to short notice. He is wary of the minus 600 line but still sees Erceg winning.

"Ersig's going to be the pick, but minus 600 is a walk in the park. And I I think that Joseé Osborne is a different tricky type of style fighter that Ursk hasn't really necessarily have to deal with lately."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Njokuani's desire to brawl in the pocket is exactly what Zaleski wants. He notes that Zaleski has a good chin and can outlast brawlers, and that Njokuani's range fighting is not his natural game. He also mentions that Zaleski can take the fight to the ground if needed.

Odds: Zaleski opened -188, now -193; Njokuani opened +155, now +167.
"I have to pick Zaleski here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chidi Njokuani

The host believes Njokuani can replicate what Randy Brown did against Zaleski, using a distance striking approach and mixing in clinch Muay Thai. He expects Njokuani to land more damage and win at least two of three rounds on the scorecards.

"I believe en kuani should be able to replicate what Randy Brown was able to do against aleski utilizing a distance striking approach maybe even mixing it up in the clinch a little bit with his Muay Thai but I …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Erceg, noting his superior technique and experience against top competition. He mentions Ode Osborne's power and submission threat but believes Erceg will outclass him. He considers an Ode Osborne KO prop but prefers Erceg on the moneyline.

"The cleaner, better, more technical fighter is is Ersz. I expect to win. Um, I expect him to outclass OD, who I mean, outside of small moments tends to, you know, wilt fall apart a little bit."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chidi Njokuani

The MMA Guru picks Chidi Njokuani, citing his physical presence, 7-inch reach advantage, and nasty clinch effectiveness. He thinks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, a rangy kicker, will struggle with Njokuani's size and pressure. He notes Zaleski dos Santos often wins close decisions and is 38, while Njokuani is a slight underdog with good value. He predicts a 2-1 decision or a Njokuani finish.

Njokuani is a slight underdog; good value.
"I'm going to go chiding at Jani here I think he's a slight Underdog and I think there's good value on that so uh check it out"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zane picks Zaleski because Njokuani is a phone booth fighter who wants to brawl in the clinch, which plays into Zaleski's strengths. He notes that Zaleski is durable, can out-grapple Njokuani, and has a path to victory if he mixes in takedowns. He also points out that Njokuani has poor takedown defense and is too content to play guard.

Odds: Zaleski opened -188, now -193; Njokuani opened +155, now +167. Zane says Zaleski could be a bigger favorite but understands age concerns.
"I have to pick Zaleski here."
TKO (punches) R1 1:15 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 11 of 35 31% 11 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Zachary Scroggin 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 11 of 35 31% 11 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Zachary Scroggin 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 11 of 35 31% 7 of 31 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 6 0 of 0 6 of 29
Zachary Scroggin 3 of 8 37% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 11 of 35 31% 7 of 31 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 6 0 of 0 6 of 29
Zachary Scroggin 3 of 8 37% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Angelo picks Zaleski but with low confidence. He thinks Zaleski has heavier hands and can get takedowns, but worries about his cardio. He expects Zaleski needs to win the first two rounds because he will likely lose the third. He might consider a plus 3.5 round bet on Scroggin if the odds are favorable. He understands people picking Scroggin due to his cardio and durability.

considering plus 3.5 round bet on Zach Scroggin
"I just think zeleski can make something happen he's got the heavier hands I think he can get a takedown or two my only concern is the freaking cardio so we're going to need zeleski to win the first two …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Big Brady sees this as a mismatch, with Zaleski being far more experienced and skilled. He notes Scroggin's low level of competition, poor takedown defense, and hittability. He believes Zaleski will win easily, likely by first-round knockout.

Zaleski by KO/TKO, round 1
"I'll take Eliza zesi by by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Cody is very confident in Zaleski, calling Scroggin a 'dead man walking.' He points out Scroggin's lack of power, poor wrestling, and weak competition. Cody notes Zaleski's experience, power, and ability to take down Randy Brown, and expects a dominant finish or clear decision.

"I think zeleski do Santos kills this man absolutely kills this man."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lock picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor picks Zaleski as a lock, calling it a 'pick him fight'. He notes Zaleski's ability to outbrawl opponents and that Scroggin is a severely undercooked submission grappler with dreadful striking. Connor mentions Zaleski hasn't knocked anyone out in six years but wouldn't be surprised if he does here. He also comments on the odds being wide.

Odds: Zaleski -525 to -669, Scroggin +356 to +400. Connor says 'I would not expect them to get a lot closer though.'
"It's a pick him fight. It's a pick him fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Daniel Vreeland picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, believing his experience and level of competition will be too much for UFC newcomer Zach Scroggin. He notes Scroggin's padded record and lack of tested skills, while Zaleski has fought top competition and has knockout power. Vreeland expects a rude welcome for Scroggin.

"I'm going Elizio Zeleski to welcome this guy to the UFC in a very rude fashion."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Scroggin is taking a huge step up in competition and despite his grappling, Zaleski should shut that down and use his striking advantage to find a finish in round two.

wins inside distance, round 2
"I think ultimately zeleski will be able to shut that down get to his striking advantage and eventually find the finish in round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Paul agrees, noting Scroggin's short-notice debut and unimpressive regional competition. He highlights Zaleski's power and veteran savvy, and expects him to overwhelm Scroggin on the feet. Paul thinks the -500 line is fair but warns of banana peel pricing.

"Zeleski should absolutely kill him unless the groggin guy has like great durability it should be oneway traffic."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The Guru picks Nicholas Dalby, citing his high output and cardio. He notes that Zaleski dos Santos is 37 and hasn't had a KO since 2018. He expects Dalby to push a pace and break Zaleski over the fight, though he acknowledges Zaleski could win by TKO.

"I'm actually going to go with Nicholas dby I think the high output will be the thing here pushing him up against the cage kneeing the thighs shooting in takedowns"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lock picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zane picks Zaleski as a lock, describing Scroggin as a regional-level fighter with a submission grappling style and empty striking. He notes Zaleski is a really good opponent and that Scroggin has never faced a good opponent. Zane says Zaleski can go to war with anyone and it's up to him how he wins.

Odds: Zaleski -525 to -669, Scroggin +356 to +400. Zane says 'I would not expect them to get a lot closer though.'
"It's a pick him fight. It's a pick him fight."
LOSS vs Randy Brown
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 0 67 of 141 47% 89 of 166 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:42
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 26 of 76 34% 42 of 94 4 of 7 57% 1 0 5:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 34 of 71 47% 35 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 9 of 34 26% 9 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Randy Brown 0 8 of 18 44% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:32
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 3 of 7 42% 19 of 25 3 of 5 60% 1 0 3:52
3 Randy Brown 0 25 of 52 48% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 67 of 141 47% 50 of 120 5 of 8 12 of 13 61 of 133 2 of 2 4 of 6
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 26 of 76 34% 8 of 50 3 of 9 15 of 17 24 of 73 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 34 of 71 47% 24 of 60 2 of 3 8 of 8 33 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 9 of 34 26% 2 of 22 3 of 6 4 of 6 9 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Randy Brown 8 of 18 44% 7 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 6
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 3 of 7 42% 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Randy Brown 25 of 52 48% 19 of 44 2 of 3 4 of 5 24 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 14 of 35 40% 4 of 22 0 of 3 10 of 10 13 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown but with reduced confidence after studying Elizeu Zaleski. He believes Brown's length and range striking will keep him safe, and that Zaleski is chinny and can be dropped. However, he acknowledges Zaleski's toughness and ability to rally, so he leaves Brown out of the safety parlay.

"Randy Brown Remains the pick but I'm telling you my gut reaction was all right safety parlay Randy Brown and then I was like I'll leave him out of the safety parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Big Brady is fading Randy Brown, expecting the fight to go to decision. He thinks Brown won't shoot takedowns or get an early finish, and doesn't expect crazy volume. He notes if there is a finish, it likely comes from Zaleski dos Santos. He is comfortable staying away from Brown.

Fight goes to decision, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos wins by decision or late finish
"fade is gonna be Randy Brown 8,500 I don't think he's finishing uh dos santoso Santos early"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody picks Brown but is hesitant, acknowledging Zaleski's danger. He likes Brown's length, jab, and game plan but notes Brown has slowed down and his defensive grappling is suspect. Cody worries that Zaleski's power and forward pressure could sway judges. He plans to keep Brown low on parlays and might switch to Zaleski after weigh-ins.

"I think I'm going to go with Brown... but I fully recognize that Zaleski is going to be dangerous... it's going to be close and contentious."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff, emphasizing that Zaleski dos Santos relies on distance striking and leg kicks, but Brown's reach and takedown ability neutralize that. He sees Brown piecing him up from distance and potentially taking him down. Vreeland notes Brown is crafty everywhere and can adapt to any scenario.

"I think Brown's gonna piece him up from distance he's probably gonna put the pressure on him"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel likes Brown's recent confidence and footwork, and thinks Zaleski's chin is declining. He expects Brown to find openings with his jab and straight right, possibly getting a first-round KO. He laid -160 for two units.

"I actually took Randy Brown here minus 160"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Jeff Fox picks Randy Brown, citing his size advantage (4 inches height, 5 inches reach) and well-rounded skills. He notes Brown is sneaky good, has no real weaknesses, and can win on the feet or with takedowns. Fox believes Zaleski dos Santos will struggle to deal with Brown's reach and pressure, and that Brown can mix in wrestling to keep things interesting.

"give me the rude boy sneaky good fighter... I think the size is going to be a big issue here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The host expects Brown to use his size, reach, and footwork to keep Zaleski at range and win a decision. Zaleski's inactivity and age are concerns, and his unorthodox style may not overcome Brown's disciplined jab and movement. Brown's recent improvements in range management should allow him to cruise to a decision victory.

"Give me Brown and Brown by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Paul leans toward Zaleski as a dog, citing his forward pressure, damaging blows, and ability to land bigger shots. He notes Brown's style is conservative and may not impress judges, while Zaleski's aggression and power could sway them. Paul mentions Zaleski's age (37) but says he still throws heat and has good cardio. He sees this as a 50/50 fight and likes the plus money.

"I feel like the bigger shots, the forward pressure, the live crowd... Zaleski is a dog with a shot here at plus 150 in a fight that I could see being pretty 50/50."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown, believing his height and reach will trouble Zaleski dos Santos. He notes that Zaleski struggles against taller opponents and is older (37) with potential decline. Brown has good boxing at range and recent TKO wins. He predicts Brown by TKO.

Brown by TKO
"I'm gonna go with Randy Brown I really like this matchup for him"
Draw (majority) (29–28, 28–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinat Fakhretdinov 1 87 of 186 46% 109 of 216 1 of 9 11% 0 1 4:25
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 75 of 152 49% 115 of 211 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinat Fakhretdinov 1 37 of 61 60% 47 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:43
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 10 of 34 29% 14 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rinat Fakhretdinov 0 27 of 73 36% 32 of 78 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:13
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 22 of 50 44% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rinat Fakhretdinov 0 23 of 52 44% 30 of 63 0 of 5 0% 0 1 0:29
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 43 of 68 63% 76 of 119 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinat Fakhretdinov 87 of 186 46% 50 of 144 11 of 16 26 of 26 65 of 156 7 of 8 15 of 22
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 75 of 152 49% 47 of 113 17 of 26 11 of 13 57 of 129 2 of 3 16 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinat Fakhretdinov 37 of 61 60% 17 of 40 5 of 6 15 of 15 21 of 39 1 of 1 15 of 21
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 10 of 34 29% 5 of 25 2 of 5 3 of 4 10 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rinat Fakhretdinov 27 of 73 36% 15 of 57 3 of 7 9 of 9 24 of 70 3 of 3 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 22 of 50 44% 12 of 38 6 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 46 0 of 1 3 of 3
3 Rinat Fakhretdinov 23 of 52 44% 18 of 47 3 of 3 2 of 2 20 of 47 3 of 4 0 of 1
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 43 of 68 63% 30 of 50 9 of 13 4 of 5 28 of 49 2 of 2 13 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Angelo is very high on Fakhretdinov, calling him the pick done right. He highlights Fakhretdinov's non-stop wrestling, power, and pressure. He thinks the 36-year-old Zaleski won't have what it takes. Angelo has made money on Fakhretdinov in every UFC fight and likes him even more now. He considers Fakhretdinov safe to parlay.

safe to parlay
"I love Rena in this fight you guys know I've been very high on him I have literally made money on him him in every single one of his UFC fights"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Big Brady picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win by decision. He notes Fakhretdinov's dominant wrestling, controlling Brian Battle for 14 minutes and taking down Andreas Michailidis five times. He believes Fakhretdinov can take down Zaleski and grind out a decision, though he's not sure about a finish. He acknowledges Zaleski's toughness and BJJ but favors Fakhretdinov's wrestling and cardio.

"give me we're not fuer enough to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Daniel Levi picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, impressed by his incredible stats: absorbs less than one strike per minute, 67% striking accuracy, over 5 takedowns per 15 minutes, and 100% takedown defense. He sees Fakhretdinov as a dominant wrestler who can control and finish fights. Levi respects Zaleski's toughness and highlight-reel kicks, but believes at 36 years old and coming off a suspension, Zaleski is in a tough spot. He expects Fakhretdinov to pressure, take him down, and possibly finish him.

Fakhretdinov wins by decision, Fakhretdinov wins inside distance
"I'm going Rinat here and I think he makes a statement."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

James bet on Zaleski at +290, believing the line is too wide. He argues that Zaleski has much better takedown defense than Fakhretdinov's previous opponents and that if the fight stays on the feet, Zaleski is the more educated striker with nasty setups. He worries that Zaleski may be washed and can get hurt early, as seen in the Abubakar fight, but he also has Russian intel suggesting Fakhretdinov may be dealing with an injury and might strike more than grapple. James sees value in Zaleski as an underdog.

James mentions he has Russian intel that Fakhretdinov may be injured and striking rather than grappling. He also notes that Zaleski is +290.
"I bet on zaleski man I bet on zaleski I don't love it... but I just think the line's a little bit wide here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Fakhretdinov is a strong grappler with high-level cardio who chains takedowns together well. Zaleski may fend off takedowns early, but as the fight goes on, Fakhretdinov's pressure will be too much. He will accumulate top control time and win by decision. The line is a bit wide but Fakhretdinov should implement his style without too much resistance.

win by decision
"I believe that Fakhretdinov can go out there and implement his style without too much resistance allowing him to get his hand raised like I said by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

The MMA Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. He acknowledges Zaleski's underrated resume but notes his age and recent performances. The Guru highlights Fakhretdinov's dominant win over Brian Battle and his improving hands, combining grappling and striking. He believes Fakhretdinov's athleticism and pressure will be too much for the older Zaleski, predicting a decision or late finish.

"I'm going to go rat for ketanov... renat is just undeniable I think at this point"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 29 of 54 53% 48 of 76 1 of 8 12% 0 0 6:16
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 42 of 113 37% 50 of 132 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 12 of 16 75% 15 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:39
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 10 of 34 29% 10 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 5 of 16 31% 20 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:20
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 14 of 32 43% 19 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 12 of 22 54% 13 of 23 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:17
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 47 38% 21 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 29 of 54 53% 13 of 37 6 of 7 10 of 10 23 of 48 6 of 6 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 42 of 113 37% 16 of 75 13 of 22 13 of 16 27 of 87 15 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 12 of 16 75% 5 of 9 2 of 2 5 of 5 6 of 10 6 of 6 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 10 of 34 29% 3 of 21 5 of 10 2 of 3 5 of 22 5 of 12 0 of 0
2 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 5 of 16 31% 2 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 14 of 32 43% 3 of 17 4 of 6 7 of 9 10 of 26 4 of 6 0 of 0
3 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 12 of 22 54% 6 of 15 2 of 3 4 of 4 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 18 of 47 38% 10 of 37 4 of 6 4 of 4 12 of 39 6 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Nurmagomedov, citing the long layoff for Zaleski (1.5 years) and Nurmagomedov's wrestling pressure. He thinks Zaleski tends to lose to wrestlers and has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Angelo bet Nurmagomedov at +120 for a quarter unit. He acknowledges the line is tightening but still favors the active fighter.

Bet 0.25 units on Nurmagomedov at +120.
"I like him in this matchup I picked him I bet him early I got him at plus 120"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Nurmagomedov, citing Zaleski's poor takedown defense (67%) and history of being taken down by wrestlers. He notes Zaleski has never faced a wrestler like Nurmagomedov, and that his long layoff and past drug test issues are red flags. Cody thinks Nurmagomedov's wrestling will be enough to grind out a win, even if he's not a high-volume takedown artist.

"I'm not under Santa's guy so normally made of definitely the worst of the normagamedovs that's still pretty good right so I will take"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor picks Zaleski despite acknowledging Abubakar's wrestling advantage, because he believes Abubakar's poor athleticism and tendency to gas will lead to a fade. He notes that Zaleski is a physical freak who doesn't fall apart easily, and that Abubakar's wrestling often leads to his own cardio issues. Connor expects Zaleski to rally after an initial tough round, possibly winning by KO as Abubakar tires.

Odds shift from Zaleski -142 to -103, Abubakar +128 to -107
"I'm gonna pick zalaski. I think abubakar will fade and zalaski will rally"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Daniel picks Abubakar, citing Zaleski's age (36) and recent PED suspension as reasons he may not look the same. He believes Abubakar is catching him at the perfect time and can outwork him with a grinding decision. He notes that Zaleski has historically been a violence king, but the suspension and age are major concerns.

"I'm actually going abubakar nor magomedov and I'm considering a bet"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Jacob picks Zaleski, believing his leg kicks and striking will neutralize Nurmagomedov's takedowns. He thinks Zaleski's performance against Saint Denis showed improved takedown defense. Jacob notes Nurmagomedov is flat-footed and not overly dominant in wrestling. He expects Zaleski to light up the lead leg and win by finish or decision.

"I'm going zoleski all the way I'm pretty confident in him in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov has shown improved striking and a reliable grappling game. Zaleski is dangerous but coming off a long layoff and suspension. Nurmagomedov will land takedowns, control from top, and grind out a decision. Zaleski could pull off a submission or knockout, but the Dagestani wrestler is the safer pick.

"I'm gonna lean with the more reliable fighter in nuremaga made of gimme him to win by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Paul picks Zaleski dos Santos as a slight underdog. He notes the line movement to Nurmagomedov as favorite is undeserved, and that Zaleski is the more dangerous striker with freakish power. Paul mentions Zaleski's takedown defense is a concern, but he thinks if the fight stays standing, Zaleski has a significant advantage. He also notes Zaleski's long layoff and past drug test issues but still sides with him.

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by KO at +400; Over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I'm interested in Elijah's zoleski dos Santos he could get himself in trouble throwing a bunch of spinning stuff getting taken down in that way but it's like if you're on abubakar I feel like while they're on the feet …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov, comparing the matchup to a knockoff Khabib vs Edson Barboza. He notes that Zaleski dos Santos throws a lot of kicks on the back foot and lacks pace, and hasn't fought since October 2021 (over a year and a half off). He believes Nurmagomedov's grappling, pressure, and pace will be the difference, though he acknowledges Nurmagomedov has had iffy performances. He thinks the grappling of Nurmagomedov gets the win.

"I'm gonna go with Abu Bakr name again of I think it's the logical match up here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov based on his strong positional grappling and wrestling advantage. He notes that Zaleski has poor takedown defense, having been taken down six times by Nicolas Dalby, and that few opponents have tested his wrestling since. Zane believes Abubakar's takedowns and top control will be decisive, though he acknowledges Abubakar's cardio issues could be a factor if he fails to finish early.

"I am going to take namaga made off"
Decision (unanimous) (29–26, 29–26, 29–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 149 of 259 57% 167 of 279 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:00
Benoît Saint Denis 0 67 of 148 45% 80 of 162 2 of 14 14% 0 0 1:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 30 of 53 56% 31 of 54 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:18
Benoît Saint Denis 0 19 of 45 42% 21 of 47 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:58
2 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 94 of 160 58% 106 of 173 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Benoît Saint Denis 0 28 of 67 41% 37 of 76 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:25
3 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 25 of 46 54% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:15
Benoît Saint Denis 0 20 of 36 55% 22 of 39 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 149 of 259 57% 96 of 200 37 of 42 16 of 17 112 of 207 32 of 47 5 of 5
Benoît Saint Denis 67 of 148 45% 40 of 114 20 of 27 7 of 7 64 of 140 3 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 30 of 53 56% 11 of 34 9 of 9 10 of 10 29 of 50 1 of 3 0 of 0
Benoît Saint Denis 19 of 45 42% 7 of 29 8 of 12 4 of 4 19 of 43 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 94 of 160 58% 76 of 139 17 of 20 1 of 1 63 of 116 29 of 42 2 of 2
Benoît Saint Denis 28 of 67 41% 22 of 59 5 of 7 1 of 1 25 of 62 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 25 of 46 54% 9 of 27 11 of 13 5 of 6 20 of 41 2 of 2 3 of 3
Benoît Saint Denis 20 of 36 55% 11 of 26 7 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Angelo picks the underdog Benoît Saint Denis, citing his wrestling style as a key advantage. He notes that Benoît's low-level takedowns and pressure on top can neutralize Zaleski's dangerous capoeira striking. However, he expresses concern about Benoît's inexperience at this level, as he is only 8-0 and this is a big step up. He mentions he would bet if the line moved to +170, but is hesitant at current odds.

Would bet at +170; considering over 1.5 rounds; mentions 58 strikes as a concern
"i'm gonna side with the underdog here i like zaleski athletic dangerous good forward pressure really good wrestling i i i you know i i like it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Big Brady picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos to win by knockout in the second or third round. He views Saint Denis as too green, sloppy, and making too many mistakes. Zaleski is a well-rounded veteran with good striking and grappling. He expects Zaleski to teach Saint Denis a veteran lesson and get a finish. He is confident in the pick despite Saint Denis's finishing ability.

Zaleski by knockout (round 2 or 3)
"I'm going to take elijah's los quiero santos to win i'm gonna take him to win by knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Cody agrees, noting Zaleski's experience and wins over Sean Strickland, Lyman Good, Max Griffin. He thinks Saint Denis will have early success with wrestling but will fatigue, and Zaleski will take over. He compares Saint Denis to a Contender Series fighter who gassed when faced with resistance.

"i feel like zoloskuro santos is rightfully so the favorite"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Daniel picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, citing his battle-tested experience and versatility. He notes Zaleski's wins over Sean Strickland and his submission game. Daniel believes there are levels to the game and Zaleski will catch Saint Denis on a sloppy shot, possibly by submission or flying knee. He respects Saint Denis's regional success but thinks the step up in competition is too much.

predicts submission or flying knee
"give me elizabeth to win this fight"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Jacob picks Zaleski, believing his striking and ability to get back to his feet in scrambles will be decisive. He acknowledges Benoît's wrestling but thinks Zaleski can hold his own on the ground and win the striking exchanges. He is not super confident and dislikes the -850 line, but if forced to pick, he goes with Zaleski.

Mentions -850 line as unfavorable; considers over 1.5 rounds
"i'm gonna go zelesky on this not super confident i don't like the 8 500 but um if i had to pick i would pick zleski"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zaleski is the more experienced veteran with good takedown defense and striking. Saint Denis is a submission hunter who gives up positions; if he doesn't finish early, Zaleski will find a knockout on the feet. Zaleski should survive the early onslaught and finish in the second round.

Under 2.5 rounds if better than +150, Zaleski by KO.
"I do lean the veteran though i do think that zaleski will be able to keep the fight standing or at least get it to the point where it's standing and then find that knockout shortly thereafter."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Paul picks Zaleski, citing his experience (12 UFC fights) and striking advantage. He thinks Saint Denis is hittable and robotic. He notes Zaleski has BJJ black belt in case it goes to the ground. He expects Zaleski to use veteran craftiness to keep it standing and eventually finish or win a decision.

"you're gonna have to go with the right rifle favorite aleski uh zaleski to santos"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

The MMA Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis as an underdog. He highlights Saint Denis's great grappling, youth (25 vs 35), and activity. He notes that Zaleski has slowed down in recent fights, throwing less volume to conserve energy. He expects Saint Denis to pressure and stick to Zaleski with sticky grappling, taking him down repeatedly. He predicts a third-round submission as Zaleski fades.

third round submission
"i'm gonna go with the underdog i do believe i haven't seen odds anywhere so i think he's the underdog uh saint denis benoit i'm gonna go with him"
LOSS vs Muslim Salikhov
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muslim Salikhov 0 46 of 138 33% 46 of 138 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:53
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 40 of 88 45% 40 of 88 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muslim Salikhov 0 20 of 50 40% 20 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 14 of 23 60% 14 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Muslim Salikhov 0 9 of 41 21% 9 of 41 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:43
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 27 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
3 Muslim Salikhov 0 17 of 47 36% 17 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muslim Salikhov 46 of 138 33% 23 of 98 11 of 25 12 of 15 35 of 124 3 of 4 8 of 10
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 40 of 88 45% 23 of 64 8 of 14 9 of 10 38 of 86 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muslim Salikhov 20 of 50 40% 11 of 36 4 of 9 5 of 5 10 of 37 2 of 3 8 of 10
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 14 of 23 60% 6 of 14 3 of 4 5 of 5 12 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Muslim Salikhov 9 of 41 21% 3 of 28 5 of 9 1 of 4 8 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 13 of 27 48% 8 of 20 2 of 4 3 of 3 13 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Muslim Salikhov 17 of 47 36% 9 of 34 2 of 7 6 of 6 17 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 13 of 38 34% 9 of 30 3 of 6 1 of 2 13 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Muslim Salikhov

Round 1
In what could be a terrific battle between two high-flying strikers, it’s Capoeira vs. Kung Fu as Zaleski dos Santos (22-6, 8-2 UFC) comes to blows with Salikhov (16-2, 0-0 UFC). Hanging on tight is referee Herb Dean, who will have a tall task ahead in this welterweight scrap. The two flashy strikers touch gloves, and both paw out left hands that fall short. Zaleski dos Santos kicks low, and fakes to kick high, drawing a reaction from his opponent. The Dagestani fighter counters with a looping right, and Zaleski dos Santos evades it in time. Salikhov lands with a low kick, and Zaleski dos Santos connects to the body, which marks up Salikhov’s torso immediately. He slaps another body kick, so Salikhov counters with a right and follows it with a leg kick. Salikhov throws a low kick, avoids the counter and catches Zaleski dos Santos at the end of a left hand. Zaleski dos Santos charges forward with a salvo of punches, and lands a few in the process. Salikhov spins with a kick, and Zaleski dos Santos blocks it without much effort. When Zaleski dos Santos kicks to the lead leg, Salikhov times an overhand right that zings across the hair of his foe. Salikhov digs to the body with a spinning back kick, and this time Zaleski dos Santos is not quick enough to defend it. He comes back with a spinning wheel kick, and Salikhov blocks it, so Zaleski dos Santos charges forward with a few punches. Salikhov blocks them and fires another quick spinning back kick to the midsection. A powerful left hand from Salikhov stings Zaleski dos Santos, pausing the Brazilian for a moment. Zaleski dos Santos shoots in low for a takedown, and the Dagestani fighter stuffs it but gets tied up in a clinch. Zaleski dos Santos lifts a few knees up to the body, until Salikhov pushes himself free. Zaleski dos Santos wings up with a massive right hand, hurting Salikhov, so “Capoeira” chases after him with a few more. Salikhov shoots for a desperation takedown, and he lands it, but Zaleski dos Santos reverses the position and ends the round wailing on him with punches.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos

Round 2
Zaleski dos Santos opens up the round with a low kick, and a one-two finds its home as “King of Kung Fu” looks to back off and get in his own rhythm. Zaleski dos Santos stings him with a right, and Salikhov fires back with a powerful left that makes Zaleski dos Santos take a step back. Salikhov kicks low, and takes a few jabs and backpedals to avoid a blitz from the Brazilian. Salikhov kicks to the body, so Zaleski dos Santos spins with a wheel kick. Salikhov catches the kick in midair, and throws Zaleski dos Santos down to the ground like a sack of flour. When Zaleski dos Santos gets back up, the two laugh it off, until Zaleski dos Santos winds up with a massive right hand that rings his opponent’s bell. As he plows forward with offense, Zaleski dos Santos ties him up and tries to wrench the fight down with a body lock takedown. Salikhov staves it off, so Zaleski dos Santos delivers a couple knees up the middle. Salikhov pushes away, and the two take the center of the cage again. Zaleski dos Santos flicks out a few jabs, and follows one with a windmilling right hand that Salikhov sees coming from a mile away. Salikhov throws another spinning kick, and Zaleski dos Santos returns fire with an identical kick. Zaleski dos Santos chains that kick with a high kick, and Salikhov blocks it and fires a speedy wheel kick that just misses Zaleski dos Santos’s head. The Brazilian pops out a jab, and a one-two is delivered part and parcel. The two trade single strikes until we hear the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos

Round 3
The two men touch gloves to start the last round, and Zaleski dos Santos introduces his foot to the side of Salikhov’s midsection. A few jabs from the Brazilian keep Salikhov back, until the Dagestani fighter rings home a right hand. Zaleski dos Santos digs to the body with a front kick, and keeps his momentum by spinning into a capoeira kick. Salikhov evades it and responds with an overhand left that gets Zaleski dos Santos’ attention. After a tepid moment where the two lazily throw out jabs, Salikhov misses with a leaping left hand. The two jab each other in the face at the same time, and Zaleski dos Santos works a low kick into a right hand that is inches short of full impact. Salikhov rushes in with a big punch, and Zaleski dos Santos catches him with a thudding counter, forcing Salikhov to take step backwards. “King of Kung Fu” is stalking down Zaleski dos Santos around the cage, with a leg kick and a few punches to try to make the Brazilian back away. A right hand from Salikhov connects, and when he sees a punch coming, he counters Zaleski dos Santos with a stiff right. Two punches swing by Salikhov’s head, so the Dagestani fighter comes back at him with a right. Salikhov jabs to the body as he avoids a foot to the face, but these two strikers are dwindling to single strikes. With no setup, Salikhov fires off a spinning back kick that glances off the side of Zaleski dos Santos’ head. Salikhov stalks him down but does not unload on him, and backs away while goading his opponent to come at him. “Capoeira” winds up with seconds to go with a spinning tornado kick, and Salikhov is well out of the way, applauding as the kick goes flying. Time expires, and this fight goes the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov (29-28 Zaleski dos Santos)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zaleski dos Santos (30-27 Zaleski dos Santos)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov (29-28 Zaleski dos Santos)

The Official Result
Muslim Salikhov def. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos via Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Big Brady picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by decision, believing he will outwork Salikhov with higher output. He thinks Salikhov's only path is a knockout, but Zaleski has a good chin and can also win via takedowns or submission. He considers Zaleski underrated and the slight favorite should be him.

"i am going with eliza zalewski here ... i think he's gonna throw more ... i'm banking on the output here i'm banking on zaleski to land more avoid that knockout shot"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

Daniel Levi picks Muslim Salikhov, emphasizing his speed, accuracy, and power on the feet. He believes Salikhov will knock out Zaleski if they stand, and notes improved takedown defense. He criticizes the narrative that Zaleski can out-volume Salikhov, saying Salikhov's shots are fight-changing. He also mentions the location (Abu Dhabi) may favor Salikhov in a decision.

predicts KO or decision win for Salikhov
"I think when Muslim Sulli cough touches him it's gonna either drop him rock him or knock him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zaleski is a better grappler and jiu-jitsu player. He can use his capoeira striking to set up takedowns and exploit Salikhov's flaws on the ground. The line at +115 is good value, as the fight should be closer to a pick'em. Picks Zaleski by second-round submission.

submission in second round, dog odds +115
"I like Zaleski dos Santos to win this fight by second round submission"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

The Guru picks Zaleski dos Santos by TKO, saying he thinks he gets it done by decision or TKO. He does not elaborate further.

"I've got a Liz user Leske dos Santos by - huge I think he gets it done by this ish"