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Age 35
Height 5' 10"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 31
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Damir Ismagulov
3.36 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
2.44 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
1.0 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Thiago Moises
2.48 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
4.08 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
1.31 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
52.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Damir Ismagulov - Fight History
LOSS vs Grant Dawson
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Grant Dawson 0 13 of 28 46% 35 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:08
Damir Ismagulov 0 30 of 57 52% 84 of 128 3 of 5 60% 1 0 12:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Grant Dawson 0 2 of 6 33% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Damir Ismagulov 0 23 of 35 65% 44 of 57 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:55
2 Grant Dawson 0 10 of 18 55% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Damir Ismagulov 0 5 of 18 27% 22 of 38 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:57
3 Grant Dawson 0 1 of 4 25% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:03
Damir Ismagulov 0 2 of 4 50% 18 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Grant Dawson 13 of 28 46% 6 of 19 6 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 30 of 57 52% 28 of 48 1 of 8 1 of 1 9 of 35 1 of 1 20 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Grant Dawson 2 of 6 33% 1 of 3 1 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 23 of 35 65% 21 of 30 1 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 15 1 of 1 18 of 19
2 Grant Dawson 10 of 18 55% 5 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 5 of 18 27% 5 of 14 0 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Grant Dawson 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Grant Dawson vs. Damir Ismagulov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ismagulov (-115), Dawson (-105)

Round 1
We have reached the co-main attraction, which takes place at 155 pounds between fringe contenders and exceptional grapplers Ismagulov (24-2, 5-1 UFC) and Dawson (19-1-1, 7-0-1 UFC). The former has gone the distance in six of his last seven, while Dawson has prevailed in six of his last seven – Ismagulov can say the same there as well. The two lightweights show ample respect as they shake hands in front of referee Herb Dean, and Ismagulov is the one pressure out of the gate. Dawson flings a left hand and a kick to make Ismagulov think twice, and he dives low for a single that is easily stuffed. Dawson wings a left hook that misses the mark, and Ismagulov skates to the side from a jab and clips Dawson with a right hand. Dawson throws right back with a left hook, and he digs a right hand to the body. Dawson snatches up the Russian’s leg and secures the single, and he succeeds in planting Ismagulov on his back. Dawson, in half guard, drops down a single left hand. Ismagulov turns over and gives up his back as he looks to escape, and Dawson follows him and wraps up a rear-naked choke. The arms cannot find the neck or even the chin, and Ismagulov fights the grip as he finds himself trapped in a body triangle. Ismagulov is warned for grabbing the inside of Dawson’s gloves to fight the hands, and Dawson stretches him out with the body triangle. Ismagulov tries to turn through it, and he sits up only to get pulled back down and his mouth covered. Dawson frustrates him with a combination of the body lock, mouth covering and hand-fighting, and Ismagulov turns to the side to shake off the leglock around his midsection. Dawson readjusts his leg grip on the body, and Ismagulov sways from side to side. Dawson locks down on a rear-naked choke with one of Ismagulov’s arms between his head and the choke grip, and Ismagulov fights out of it and turns around to his knees. Dawson stays tightly pressed to him, following him every step of the way and opening up with right hands when he has Ismagulov stuck on his side. Ismagulov turns frantically, and Dawson keeps a very high hook around the chest even as Ismagulov bucks him like a bronco. Ismagulov turns to his back again, and he rides out the round without being tapped.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Dawson

Round 2
The lightweights clap hands, and as Ismagulov is coming out of his corner, he is wincing and closing his right eye. Both fighters swing haymakers at the other, and Ismagulov catches Dawson with a left and a right. Dawson lifts up a knee, but Ismagulov does not walk into it. Instead, Ismagulov snaps the head back with a jab, and a straight right hand sends Dawson backpedaling. Dawson drops down, grabs hold of both of Ismagulov’s legs, picks him up like a 155-pound sack of potatoes and gingerly deposits him to the floor. The two end in a very unusual situation, as Ismagulov and Dawson were stuck in an odd north-south position for a moment. Dawson recovers faster to partially wind up on top, but Ismagulov also has his own hands clasped. Dawson slides around to get on top, and he snags Ismagulov’s back to get both hooks in. Dawson recovers his body triangle, and he racks up more back control time as he occasionally softens Ismagulov up with fists upside the head. Ismagulov answers with elbows to the thigh, and he fights a choke setup off but is still stuck in the body triangle. Dawson snakes an arm over the chin but cannot sneak it under it, and he settles for making Ismagulov’s life miserable. The round ends with Dawson hold on from behind, and he helps Ismagulov back to his feet as they return to their corners.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson

Round 3
The fighters hug it out to start off the last round, and Ismagulov is urgent to push the action knowing he is likely way down on the scorecards. Dawson slides to the side and pegs Ismagulov with a left hand, and Dawson grabs his foe from behind and elevates him. “KGD” tosses Ismagulov to the ground, and the body triangle is snatched up immediately as he secures back control. Dawson grabs the arm of Ismagulov and torques it back for something more frequently seen in the pro wrestling ring, like a full nelson or a reverse can opener. Ismagulov grits it out, as this is nothing more than an irritation to him, but Dawson is squeezing him and completely nullifying him. Dawson loops punches over the guard that are light and frustrating, and Dean asks for Dawson to work in this back control position. The hand-fighting from Ismagulov stop Dawson from a choke getting anywhere near close, and Dawson tries as hard as he can to even get one arm around the head of his adversary. Dawson switches his body lock from leg to leg as Ismagulov leans to one side or the other, and Ismagulov has no answers. Dawson considers an arm-in rear-naked choke again, and Ismagulov punches from behind to signal to Dawson there is nothing to it. With five seconds to go, Ismagulov explodes to turn himself around, but the fight ends before he can do anything with it. Barring something extremely bizarre, this should be a clean sweep for Dawson. Man, this kid is good.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-26 Dawson)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-26 Dawson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-26 Dawson)

The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Damir Ismagulov via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Angelo picks Damir Ismagulov, citing his well-rounded skills, cardio, and ability to adjust. He believes Damir's striking is light years ahead of Grant Dawson's, and while Dawson is a good wrestler, he's not Arman Tsarukyan. He expects a razor-thin decision but thinks Damir gets it done. He avoids betting due to Damir's lack of finishing ability.

"damir's going to be the pick I think he can defend some of the takedowns early I think the gap on the feet is just light years"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Big Brady picks Grant Dawson to win by decision, but is cautious. He notes Ismagulov has been dealing with injuries and looked off in his last fight, and has announced this is his retirement fight. Dawson has improved at American Top Team, with better striking and cardio. Brady thinks Dawson's wrestling and control will be key, and he can win a close decision, though he warns against being too confident either way.

"I'm gonna take Dawson here I I A lot of people are very confident one way or another I think it's hard"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Cody leans Dawson because of his wrestling and recent improvements, especially taking down Olympic wrestler Mark Madsen twice. He notes Ismagulov's takedown defense was exposed by Arman Tsarukyan (7 takedowns) and that Ismagulov fights to his opponent's level with low volume. Cody also mentions Dawson's cardio has improved, as shown by two straight third-round finishes. He considers it a close fight likely to go to decision.

Dawson round 3 at 12-1
"I'm leaning towards Dawson but yeah both guys could win the fight right it could be a close fight it could be a split decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Daniel picks Ismagulov but with low confidence, hinging on which version shows up after health issues and a brief retirement. He notes Ismagulov's striking is far superior to Dawson's, and if he can stuff takedowns (despite being taken down 7 times by Tsarukyan), he should win easily. However, he is concerned about Ismagulov's health and motivation, and reserves the right to change his pick after weigh-ins. He sees Dawson as a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking, but acknowledges his relentless wrestling and guillotine threat.

"right now free lands imma go is magulov I reserve the right to change that pick"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

James leans towards Ismagulov, believing he should be about a 60% favorite. He thinks Ismagulov's striking is cleaner and that he can defend takedowns well, as he did against Arman Tsarukyan early. He notes Dawson's cardio issues and that Ismagulov's cardio is strong, but he hasn't finished his tape study yet. He also mentions the retirement concern but says if Ismagulov is still the same fighter, he wins.

"I definitely favor is mov I think is mov should be about 60% right now right now but I need to do tape so that's why I don't want to speak too much in depth."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Dawson's move to American Top Team and his improved cardio and wrestling. He notes Ismagulov's retirement announcement and return, suggesting lack of motivation. Paul thinks Dawson's pressure and takedowns will be the difference, but acknowledges Ismagulov's cardio and durability.

"I think Dawson's smart enough to realize I got to take this guy down so I'm leaning towards Dawson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

The Guru picks Damir Ismagulov, citing Grant Dawson's struggle against Ricky Glenn as a huge red flag. He notes Ismagulov's ability to get back up and scrap, and predicts Dawson's takedowns will fail in the second round, leading to Ismagulov landing a straight right hand for a KO. He also criticizes Dawson's chin and teep kicks.

KO by straight right hand in second round
"I'm picking damira's magulov I don't think Grant Dawson has the level of wrestling"
LOSS vs Arman Tsarukyan
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 34 of 81 41% 50 of 105 7 of 21 33% 0 0 9:25
Damir Ismagulov 0 36 of 86 41% 51 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 9 of 23 39% 15 of 29 1 of 10 10% 0 0 3:04
Damir Ismagulov 0 13 of 26 50% 24 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 12 of 27 44% 18 of 35 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:24
Damir Ismagulov 0 11 of 28 39% 13 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Arman Tsarukyan 0 13 of 31 41% 17 of 41 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:57
Damir Ismagulov 0 12 of 32 37% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 34 of 81 41% 14 of 57 12 of 15 8 of 9 31 of 76 2 of 4 1 of 1
Damir Ismagulov 36 of 86 41% 18 of 60 15 of 21 3 of 5 26 of 74 10 of 11 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 9 of 23 39% 2 of 14 3 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 13 of 26 50% 7 of 18 4 of 5 2 of 3 13 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Arman Tsarukyan 12 of 27 44% 7 of 21 3 of 3 2 of 3 9 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 1
Damir Ismagulov 11 of 28 39% 6 of 18 5 of 9 0 of 1 7 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Arman Tsarukyan 13 of 31 41% 5 of 22 6 of 7 2 of 2 13 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 12 of 32 37% 5 of 24 6 of 7 1 of 1 6 of 26 6 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan, his guy, hoping the loss to Gamrot helps him improve. He notes that Damir is not the wrestler Gamrot is, so he sees Arman getting takedowns and winning the scrambles. He acknowledges Arman faded in his last fight but this is a three-round fight, which favors him.

Plans to bet on Arman more takedowns (prop bet) because Damir won't take him down
"I'm gonna stick with my guy here I'm hoping that loss to gamrat just sort of helps moving him forward"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Tsarukyan, citing his elite wrestling and power advantage. He notes Ismagulov has 90% takedown defense but hasn't faced a wrestler like Tsarukyan. He thinks Tsarukyan will mix in takedowns and win a competitive decision. He wants to see Ismagulov's weight cut but leans Tsarukyan.

Tsarukyan wins by decision
"I gotta go with saruki in here and I will take him to win by decision but I think it's going to be a pretty close one here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Cody likes Ismagulov as an underdog because of his well-rounded skills, solid takedown defense, and durability. He thinks Ismagulov can stay on the outside, use his jab, and stifle Tsarukyan's takedowns to win a striking battle. He notes Tsarukyan is still green and was taken down by Gamrot, which raises questions.

plus 165 underdog
"at plus 165 I feel like you can get worse underdogs... I'm not gonna lie man this is a 14 fight card... 165 one of the better ones that I did like"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
Damir Ismagulov

Ismagulov is very talented and this should be a 50/50 fight. He didn't show his best in his last two fights due to long layoffs, but this is his second fight in six months, so he should be in better shape. He can be defensively responsible with his grappling and outstrike Tsarukyan on the feet. The line is too wide in favor of Tsarukyan.

1 unit at +159
"this fight should really be a 50 50 fight it should be minus 110 on both sides as Israel gulab is very talented"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul picks Tsarukyan, believing he is a top talent with all the skills. He thinks Tsarukyan will land takedowns and is super quick on the feet. He notes Tsarukyan is young and still developing, expecting to see the best version of him. He is not confident enough to bet but picks him.

"I'm gonna pick saruki and I think he will be able to uh land some takedowns here... I expect to see the best arm and Armin sarukian that we have seen to date"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan over Damir Ismagulov, noting the three-round fight favors Tsarukyan's cardio. He believes Tsarukyan's lead switch kick to the body will be effective against Ismagulov's high guard, and that Ismagulov doesn't have the offensive grappling of Mateusz Gamrot to threaten takedowns. He also thinks Ismagulov took damage in his last fight against Guram Kutateladze. He predicts Tsarukyan's higher fight IQ and youth (26) will lead to a win.

"I'm gonna go if I'm in saruki in here over damira's magulov"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damir Ismagulov 0 79 of 192 41% 83 of 197 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:46
Guram Kutateladze 0 78 of 187 41% 80 of 190 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damir Ismagulov 0 21 of 57 36% 23 of 60 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Guram Kutateladze 0 26 of 63 41% 27 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:17
2 Damir Ismagulov 0 30 of 65 46% 32 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Guram Kutateladze 0 23 of 58 39% 23 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
3 Damir Ismagulov 0 28 of 70 40% 28 of 70 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:20
Guram Kutateladze 0 29 of 66 43% 30 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damir Ismagulov 79 of 192 41% 63 of 173 14 of 17 2 of 2 76 of 184 3 of 8 0 of 0
Guram Kutateladze 78 of 187 41% 29 of 129 28 of 33 21 of 25 64 of 170 13 of 16 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damir Ismagulov 21 of 57 36% 17 of 52 3 of 4 1 of 1 19 of 55 2 of 2 0 of 0
Guram Kutateladze 26 of 63 41% 13 of 44 8 of 11 5 of 8 20 of 55 6 of 8 0 of 0
2 Damir Ismagulov 30 of 65 46% 22 of 55 8 of 10 0 of 0 30 of 63 0 of 2 0 of 0
Guram Kutateladze 23 of 58 39% 7 of 40 10 of 11 6 of 7 20 of 54 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Damir Ismagulov 28 of 70 40% 24 of 66 3 of 3 1 of 1 27 of 66 1 of 4 0 of 0
Guram Kutateladze 29 of 66 43% 9 of 45 10 of 11 10 of 10 24 of 61 4 of 4 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

Angelo picks Guram Kutateladze, citing his powerful striking, kicks, and submission threats. He notes that even when taken down, Kutateladze is active on the ground and can work back up. He believes Kutateladze will frustrate Ismagulov both on feet and ground. He suggests betting on Kutateladze moneyline or safety net bets like 'wins inside distance decision no action' or plus 3.5 rounds.

moneyline or wins inside distance decision no action or plus 3.5 round bet (available at BetOnline)
"i like garam to frustrate dimir both on his feet and on the ground and i like him to take another underdog win over a solid wrestler"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Big Brady picks Damir Ismagulov to win by decision, contingent on a good weight cut. He notes Ismagulov has excellent fight IQ, volume, and striking defense, while Kutateladze is powerful but low volume. He expects Ismagulov to be the minute winner on the feet and can mix in takedowns. He expresses concern about Ismagulov's weight cut and past eye issue.

decision
"I think damiri magulov wins a decision here as long as the weight cut goes good so dimir damir by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Cody picks Ismagulov, citing his technical striking, excellent chin, and wrestling defense. He notes Kutateladze's cardio issues and two-year layoff, and believes Ismagulov will outpoint him over three rounds. He suggests Ismagulov by decision as a prop.

Damir Ismagulov by decision
"i think demir is able to get the job done dimir is also not super active but in the time away he's fought well"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Daniel Levi is confident in Damir Ismagulov, praising his elite striking defense (1.9 strikes absorbed per minute), 100% takedown defense, and sharp boxing. He believes Ismagulov is a potential top-five talent and will outpoint Guram Kutateladze, who is tough but less polished. Levi notes Kutateladze's kicking game is dangerous, but thinks Ismagulov's fight IQ and experience will carry him to a unanimous decision. He is considering a bet on Ismagulov.

considering a bet on Ismagulov; expects unanimous decision
"i'm going dimir ismagullah via unanimous decision here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

Paul picks Kutateladze as a dog, noting his training with Khamzat Chimaev and his power. He thinks Kutateladze can walk through Ismagulov's shots and land heavier strikes. He grabbed the line at +150 and believes the volume difference will be close, giving the edge to the Georgian.

"i grabbed some plus 150 um yesterday yeah because i kind of saw the line moving"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

The MMA Guru picks Guram Kutateladze, calling it risky. He notes Kutateladze is younger and more explosive, with good body kicks and skills off his back. He believes Damir Ismagulov has looked worse since his return, struggling against Rafael Alves. He thinks Kutateladze has a higher chance of a finish and will push the pace in later rounds, though he acknowledges Ismagulov is a good underdog.

"i'm going with garam... another risky one though another real risky one... i'm going to side with garam cutter to let's younger and on short notice"
WIN vs Rafael Alves
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damir Ismagulov 1 30 of 63 47% 36 of 69 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:16
Rafael Alves 0 56 of 126 44% 141 of 220 2 of 3 66% 0 0 7:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damir Ismagulov 1 2 of 7 28% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
Rafael Alves 0 17 of 23 73% 68 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:46
2 Damir Ismagulov 0 12 of 26 46% 12 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rafael Alves 0 24 of 66 36% 50 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:10
3 Damir Ismagulov 0 16 of 30 53% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Rafael Alves 0 15 of 37 40% 23 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damir Ismagulov 30 of 63 47% 20 of 50 6 of 7 4 of 6 28 of 59 2 of 2 0 of 2
Rafael Alves 56 of 126 44% 30 of 91 16 of 24 10 of 11 37 of 104 0 of 0 19 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damir Ismagulov 2 of 7 28% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 2
Rafael Alves 17 of 23 73% 4 of 9 7 of 8 6 of 6 0 of 3 0 of 0 17 of 20
2 Damir Ismagulov 12 of 26 46% 7 of 21 2 of 2 3 of 3 12 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Alves 24 of 66 36% 14 of 49 6 of 12 4 of 5 23 of 65 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Damir Ismagulov 16 of 30 53% 11 of 23 4 of 5 1 of 2 14 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael Alves 15 of 37 40% 12 of 33 3 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Big Brady confidently picks Ismagulov, calling him two levels above Alves stylistically. He highlights Ismagulov's 100% takedown defense, phenomenal striking defense (69%), and Alves' poor cardio and chin. He expects a knockout finish, noting Alves has been knocked out three times and slows after the first round. He acknowledges the layoff as the only concern.

Ismagulov by knockout
"i'm going to take is mcglove to win by knockout i think he gets his first finish in the fc here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Cody Saftic picks Damir Ismagulov, praising his technical boxing, takedown defense, and unflappable style. He notes that Ismagulov has beaten tough opponents like Joel Alvarez and Thiago Moises, and that Alves has struggled with weight cuts and has a journeyman record. Saftic believes Ismagulov will win by decision, controlling the fight with his jab and staying out of danger. He suggests a parlay with the over in the Spencer fight.

Ismagulov by decision, parlay with over 2.5 in Spencer/Dumont
"i got dimir ishmagulov i got him by decision i think uh yeah and you mentioned he's maybe a dull fighter maybe he's not made the most appealing or fan friendly style but like as far as wager friendly as …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Daniel Levi picks Damir Ismagulov, praising his smooth, well-rounded striking and discipline. He respects Rafael Alves but notes that Alves missed weight due to personal tragedy and may not be fully focused. He predicts Ismagulov will cruise to a 30-27 decision, though he acknowledges the price is steep and there's no betting value.

30-27 decision
"i see is my gulab cruising to a nice 30-27 decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Matt picks Damir Ismagulov to win by decision, despite a two-year layoff. He praises Ismagulov's technical striking, combination punching, and takedown defense. He notes Alves has cardio issues and a history of missing weight, which could worsen his gas tank. He expects Ismagulov to keep the fight standing and outpoint Alves over three rounds. He also considers a third-round finish prop at +800 due to Alves' potential fade, but prefers the decision line at -125.

Damir Ismagulov by decision (-125), Damir Ismagulov round 3 (+800)
"i think demiro's my goal goes out there keeps his fight on the feet and absolutely outstrike alves over 15 minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Paul Shaughnessy picks Ismagulov, noting that he looks like a top-10 talent and that Alves is moving up in weight after missing weight badly. He believes Ismagulov's jab and takedown defense will be too much, and that Alves will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He suggests passing on the moneyline due to the price, but likes Ismagulov by decision or in a parlay.

Ismagulov by decision, parlay
"damir is the pick but i'm hearing i want to hear what you have to say maybe we can find a prop to play here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Damir Ismagulov

The MMA Guru predicts Damir Ismagulov will win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Rafael Alves to win the first round with early takedowns and big moments, but Ismagulov will establish his jab and technical stand-up in rounds two and three, securing takedowns late in those rounds to win on the scorecards.

"i'm calling a 29-28 unanimous decision for damiris magulov losing the first round in a crazy back and forth moment and then winning the second and third in a more controlled environment"
WIN vs Thiago Moises
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang · Aug 31, 2019
WIN vs Joel Alvarez
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Santos · Feb 23, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damir Ismagulov 0 64 of 150 42% 64 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joel Alvarez 0 38 of 127 29% 38 of 127 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damir Ismagulov 0 25 of 58 43% 25 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joel Alvarez 0 16 of 54 29% 16 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Damir Ismagulov 0 25 of 57 43% 25 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joel Alvarez 0 11 of 37 29% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Damir Ismagulov 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joel Alvarez 0 11 of 36 30% 11 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damir Ismagulov 64 of 150 42% 25 of 85 30 of 51 9 of 14 64 of 150 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joel Alvarez 38 of 127 29% 26 of 107 5 of 11 7 of 9 37 of 126 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damir Ismagulov 25 of 58 43% 8 of 28 12 of 23 5 of 7 25 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joel Alvarez 16 of 54 29% 13 of 48 0 of 3 3 of 3 16 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Damir Ismagulov 25 of 57 43% 9 of 33 13 of 18 3 of 6 25 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joel Alvarez 11 of 37 29% 7 of 29 2 of 4 2 of 4 11 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Damir Ismagulov 14 of 35 40% 8 of 24 5 of 10 1 of 1 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joel Alvarez 11 of 36 30% 6 of 30 3 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damir Ismagulov vs. Joel Alvarez

Round 1
First up is a lightweight bout between Damir Ismagulov and Joel Alvarez. The referee for the first bout of the night is Jakub Muller. Ismagulov leads with a jab to the body then lands a chopping low kick. Another nice jab to the body with Ismagulov and then he nearly lands a right hook. Big straight right lands by Ismagulov to the chin of Alvarez. Another jab by Ismagulov, and then another low kick. Another big straight right hand lands on the chin of Alvarez, who is a stationary target at the moment. Right cross to the body by Ismagulov. Impressive body work by him so far. Ismagulov flails on a spinning back kick. Finally Alvarez lands a strike, a low kick. Another jab to the body by Ismagulov and a counter straight right. Low kick by Ismagulov. Alvarez lands a jab. Ismagulov lands a straight right and then nearly takes off Alvarez’ head with a wild left hook. Big uppercut by Ismagulov lands. Another low kick and then a straight right. Alvarez lands a knee to the body and then a low kick of his own. Ismagulov with another straight right. Jab to the body by Ismagulov and he lands a big left hook. Another jab by Ismagulov. He just misses landing a front kick. Another straight right by Ismagulov. Alvarez returns with a low kick. Jab to the body by Ismagulov. He just misses another right straight and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov

Round 2
Round two begins. Ismagulov just misses landing a big straight right as Alvarez just moves his head away. Another jab and straight right combo by Ismagulov. Spinning back kick to the body by Ismagulov just grazes Alvarez. Low kick by Ismagulov and Alvarez checks it. Jab to the body by Ismagulov. He connects on a huge overhand right to the chin but somehow Alvarez doesn’t get rocked from it. Jab to the body by Ismagulov. Jab to the head this time by Ismagulov. He just misses landing another overhand right. Another jab by Ismagulov and then a brutal left body kick. He just misses landing a right cross. Low kick lands by Alvarez but Ismagulov catches it and then lets Alvarez go. Another overhand right by Ismagulov. Another jab by Ismagulov, a low kick returned by Alvarez, and the round is over. This fight has been a blowout through two rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov

Round 3
Round three begins and they touch gloves. Ismagulov continues to lead off the jab. He misses landing a right uppercut. A body kick lands by Ismagulov but Alvarez partially blocks it with his forearms. Ismagulov again misses an overhand right. Alvarez lands a nice body kick of his own. Ismagulov lands a straight right and then nearly lands a left hook. Alvarez lands a front kick to the body. Ismagulov catches the kick and then nearly lands another straight right. Ismagulov lands a kick to the body. Another overhand right by Ismagulov. Alvarez misses a spinning wheel kick. Alvarez lands a kick to the body that is caught by Ismagulov, who counters with a straight right. There’s one minute left in the fight now and Alvarez needs a stoppage. Alvarez lands a nasty low kick but once again it’s caught by Ismagulov. Alvarez lands a jab. Ismagulov with an overhand right. Alvarez lands a front kick to the body. Ismagulov just misses landing another overhand right. Alvarez misses landing a straight right of his own and the fight is over.

Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov (30-27 Ismagulov)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov (30-27 Ismagulov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ismagulov (30-27 Ismagulov)

The Official Result
Damir Ismagulov def. Joel Alvarez via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
WIN vs Alex Gorgees
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Dec 02, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damir Ismagulov 0 10 of 31 32% 22 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Gorgees 0 34 of 55 61% 103 of 137 5 of 11 45% 0 0 9:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damir Ismagulov 0 4 of 14 28% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Gorgees 0 10 of 19 52% 22 of 33 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:37
2 Damir Ismagulov 0 1 of 10 10% 3 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Gorgees 0 12 of 20 60% 51 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:42
3 Damir Ismagulov 0 5 of 7 71% 10 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Gorgees 0 12 of 16 75% 30 of 42 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damir Ismagulov 10 of 31 32% 5 of 21 3 of 5 2 of 5 5 of 26 5 of 5 0 of 0
Alex Gorgees 34 of 55 61% 22 of 38 9 of 13 3 of 4 20 of 32 3 of 3 11 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damir Ismagulov 4 of 14 28% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 3 3 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alex Gorgees 10 of 19 52% 5 of 10 3 of 6 2 of 3 8 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 2
2 Damir Ismagulov 1 of 10 10% 0 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Gorgees 12 of 20 60% 7 of 14 4 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 7 of 13
3 Damir Ismagulov 5 of 7 71% 3 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 3 4 of 4 0 of 0
Alex Gorgees 12 of 16 75% 10 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 5
Thiago Moises - Fight History
LOSS vs Gauge Young
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · Apr 18, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Thiago Moises 0 45 of 101 44% 46 of 103 2 of 15 13% 0 0 2:33
Gauge Young 1 122 of 226 53% 131 of 237 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Thiago Moises 0 8 of 13 61% 9 of 15 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:22
Gauge Young 0 9 of 23 39% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:17
2 Thiago Moises 0 14 of 38 36% 14 of 38 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:11
Gauge Young 0 44 of 88 50% 44 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Thiago Moises 0 23 of 50 46% 23 of 50 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Gauge Young 1 69 of 115 60% 74 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Thiago Moises 45 of 101 44% 34 of 81 1 of 3 10 of 17 42 of 97 2 of 3 1 of 1
Gauge Young 122 of 226 53% 62 of 157 27 of 34 33 of 35 114 of 211 2 of 2 6 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Thiago Moises 8 of 13 61% 4 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 3 6 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1
Gauge Young 9 of 23 39% 2 of 16 0 of 0 7 of 7 9 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Thiago Moises 14 of 38 36% 9 of 27 0 of 1 5 of 10 14 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gauge Young 44 of 88 50% 19 of 60 12 of 14 13 of 14 43 of 87 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Thiago Moises 23 of 50 46% 21 of 45 0 of 1 2 of 4 22 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gauge Young 69 of 115 60% 41 of 81 15 of 20 13 of 14 62 of 101 1 of 1 6 of 13
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Young (-130); Moises (+110)

Round 1
Once a hot commodity off of the sole Brazilian season of Dana White’s Contender Series, Moises (19-9, 8-7 UFC) has regressed to the mean and is one defeat away from falling to .500 in the promotion. Young (10-3, 1-1 UFC) has gone one up and one down thus far, so he is looking to break out of that pattern and into greater heights. They will battle it out under the auspices of referee Jason Herzog, who will be keeping tabs on the 155ers for as long as they keep fighting.
There is no touch of gloves. Moises pressure immediately forward, backing Young to the fence and shooting in on his hips within 10 seconds. Young places his back against the wall to keep himself afloat, and as Moises keeps clinging to his man, the crowd grows quite restless. Moises ignores the boos and irritation from the audience and keeps tight to him. Young flips Moises over him, and Moises recovers quickly enough so both men stand up. Young tosses out a high kick to keep Moises honest, and he ducks a looping punch but cannot evade a front kick aimed at his jaw. Young probes with a jab and low kick, and Moises catches him in transition with a left hook. They jab at the same time, and Young just misses a looping punch as Moises kicks the lead calf. Young stays behind his jab.
Moises loads up on power, and Young sees it coming and also knows a takedown is soon to test him. Young stops the first effort, but the Brazilian redoubles his attempt and succeeds in putting Young down. Young wall-walks to stand up, and he gives his back up in the process. Moises hops onto his back and wraps his legs around the waist while flirting with a choke attempt. Moises wraps his forearm across the face and tries to squeeze it, but the American is able to fight it off and kick off the fencing to drop to his knees. Moises welcomes this as he is leaned against the cage, and he smacks Young in the face with an undercut sneakily beneath Young’s armpit. Young sells out all the way to turn about, and Moises does not entirely give up the position and has Young trapped in an awkward side-turned position that contorts his spine but is not about to force him to tap. Young breaks out and finds himself in armbar danger, and he stacks the Brazilian up and lands a few punches to conclude the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises

Round 2
There is a slight fist bump to kick off the round, and Young is quick to follow that bump with kicks from both limbs. Moises jabs to the body to open up a right hand, and Young does not fall for the latter. Young jabs the body with his heel, and he reaches out with a right hook. Moises chops at the front leg, and Young stumbles forward but is still more than willing to trade. The American digs a shot to the body and goes after an uppercut, and Moises is just out of range with the latter. Moises wraps a right hand around the ear and shoots for a single, with Young defending it and pushing off. Moises shoulder-rolls a heavy right hand but the jabs are continuing to score. Young jabs Moises up with a kick to the stomach and follows with a punch before he has to sprawl the incoming takedown. Moises bullies Young to the wire for a few seconds, and Young knows he cannot get ground out again and breaks out soon.
He proceeds to jab and cross Moises with short combinations, and he just misses with a step-in knee. Moises wants another takedown, but Young is not having it and shucks him away easily. Both men look to double up their jab and come over the top with a right hand, but neither is able to do so as the big rights are telegraphed. They pick at one another with low kicks and stay busy from up close, not overswinging anything and just selecting their places carefully. It is one after the other, Moises lands, Young fires back, Moises keeps on throwing and Young is ready for more. Moises shoots low for a takedown, and he gets pushed away and nearly booted in the face when standing up. The Brazilian manages to tackle Young over, and he comes up short with a hefty knee. Young puts his fists on Moises up high and to the chest, rolling with a right hand to press ever forward until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Young
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Young
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Young

Round 3
Young offers a high-five, and Moises accepts it before the final frame ensues. Young gets back right where he left off, slowly pressing the action and outboxing the slugging Moises. Moises is loading up on sheer power, while Young is content to touch and move. Young pitches Moises to the side when Moises changes levels, and he delivers a stern uppercut to the jaw and staggers the Brazilian with a follow-up right. He also marks Moises’ face up on multiple places, including both cheeks and the bridge of the nose. Young steps in with a sharp elbow, and he tosses Moises to the side as Moises predictably shoots in on his hips. Young kicks Moises’ lead leg out from him as Moises is shooting for a takedown, and Moises flops to his back while Young raises in arms in the air. Moises stands up thanks to Herzog, and he steps in with a thudding elbow on the nose. Moises failed takedown is an even worse look when he falls to his back again when he does not get it. Young forces him to stand.
Moises tries to brawl, but he is far too slow while Young picks him apart with fast combinations. Young clips Moises behind the ear, sending the Brazilian collapsing to the mat, and he follows him down to bash him with punches and hammerfists. When there is no finish in sight, Young dances around to showboat and gets Herzog to bring him back upright. Young beats Moises with a left hand and points at it, and he is feeling himself and motioning in a Diaz-like manner any thing he lands flush. Moises stands firm and drills him with a right hand, and Young shakes it out to re-engage. Moises meets him with sheer power, hurling his right hand like he wants to knock the head of “Gee Money” into the third row. Young tanks the ones that connect and backs Moises to the wall, stinging him with an elbow but getting caught flush with a power right hand. Moises is swinging with hammers, and Young picks him apart and has his hands up to defend from the most dangerous of attacks. Moises punctuates the brawl with two punches and a head kick, and the lightweights hug it out after a hard-fought contest.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Young (29-28 Young)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Young (29-28 Young)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Young (29-28 Young)

The Official Result
Gauge Young def. Thiago Moises via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gauge Young

Angelo picks Gauge Young despite acknowledging Thiago Moises is good everywhere. He likes Gauge's aggression, scrambling, and forward pressure, believing he will do more and impress judges. He worries about Gauge cutting easily and bleeding, which could affect judging.

"But I'm still going to pick Gaej here. Because I love the aggression."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Big Brady picks Thiago Moises as an underdog, citing his elite jiu-jitsu and wrestling. He notes Moises' inconsistency but believes he wins step-down fights. Brady points out Grant Dawson's vulnerability to takedowns and submissions, and predicts Moises will win by decision.

decision
"Give me Thiago Moises to win. I'll take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gauge Young

Cody picks Gauge Young, citing his youth, volume, and recent improvements. He notes that Thiago Moises is inconsistent and has taken a lot of damage. He also mentions that Moises' chin is a question mark after the Jared Gordon loss.

"I'm going I'm going with youth here. And I will say Moises, although we said that he's, you know, only 31, it's just like let's face it, man. the amount of wars, damage, everything, wear and tear."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Gauge Young

Daniel believes Moises is on a decline and has looked poor recently, while Young is improving and can push a pace that Moises struggles with. He thinks Young's hands and pressure will overwhelm Moises. He picks Young to get the biggest win of his career.

"I'm gonna pick Gage Young to come out here and get the biggest win of his career."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2026 (fight day)
Gauge Young

Young is a high-pressure striker with excellent cardio, while Moises has poor cardio and relies on grappling. Moises is passive on the feet and only shoots a few takedowns per fight. Young's takedown defense is good enough to scramble back up, and he will out-strike Moises significantly. This is a classic striker vs grappler where Young has a huge edge.

"Gage Young is my most confident bet on this card."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gauge Young

James picks Gauge Young to win, citing his durability, cardio, and pressure. He thinks Moises is on a downtrend and will struggle with Young's pace. Despite Moises being more skilled, James favors Young's will to win and stylistic advantages.

"I'm actually going to pick Gage Young here to get the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

The host is hesitant but picks Moises by submission, thinking he will eventually find a position to put Young away. He notes that Moises is being overlooked due to his knockout loss to Jared Gordon, and that his BJJ and striking can be competitive. However, he needs a good number on the Moises submission prop to pull the trigger.

Moises by submission
"I'm going to go Moises here. I'm going to go Moises by submission. I think he finally finds that position to put Young away."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gauge Young

Paul also picks Gauge Young, agreeing with Cody. He highlights Young's volume and Moises' inconsistency. He mentions that Moises' durability is a concern and that Young is the fresher fighter.

"Yeah, I think Gage Young just on the money line is how I'm going to approach this fight."
LOSS vs Jared Gordon
KO R1 3:37 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Gordon 1 7 of 13 53% 21 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:36
Thiago Moises 0 5 of 9 55% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Gordon 1 7 of 13 53% 21 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:36
Thiago Moises 0 5 of 9 55% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Gordon 7 of 13 53% 5 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thiago Moises 5 of 9 55% 3 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Gordon 7 of 13 53% 5 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thiago Moises 5 of 9 55% 3 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-110), Moises (-110)

Round 1
Lightweight veterans with technically equal records in the UFC—although one has a no contest—come to blows, with plans of remaining highly regarded in the talent-rich division. Gordon (20-7, 1 NC; 8-6, 1 NC UFC) is the one who also has the grey mark on his pace thanks to a clash of heads with Bobby Green, and has otherwise alternated wins and losses for a few years. The same can be said for Brazil’s Moises (19-8, 8-6 UFC), who is ready to continue the rivalry of his team of American Top Team against regional adversarial team Kill Cliff FC and its rep of Gordon. Referee Kerry Hatley will keep things on the up-and-up, but they are fine with one another and clap hands. The first strike thrown is a Moises body kick, which Gordon uses to easily sling his opponent to his back. Gordon practically walks into top control, and Moises wraps up his arms in an unorthodox armlock attack. Moises lets go of the lockup and lashes out with a short elbow off his back that opens a tiny cut on the top of Gordon’s forehead. Gordon responds with ample ground-and-pound of his own, smearing his blood all over the Brazilian’s head and chest. Moises works his way back up to his feet, ignoring the strikes lobbed at him so he can fight his way back up and away. They proceed to smack one another with low kicks, and Gordon darts in with a pair of punches that bounce off the guard. Leg kicks continue to fly, and they tag one another with single strikes. When Gordon ducks in to throw, Moises counters with a clean right hand over the top. “Flash” does not bat an eye, and instead lets Moises pitch a left hand at him.
This is exactly what he wants, as Gordon times a picture-perfect right hand that smashes into the American Top Team fighter’s chin and puts him down for the count. Moises’ head clatters off the mat when he collapses to the ground like a bird that’s had its wings clipped, and Gordon hammers the nail with a leaping right hand that gives commentator Michael Bisping flashbacks of when he took on Dan Henderson, cleanly separating Moises from his consciousness.
Before Hatley can get to them, Gordon gets one or two off that wake Moises back up, but they are merely academic as Gordon has dropped the hammer. Blood streaming down his face, Gordon stands up and shrugs, as if he knew he was going to do this all along. When Moises comes to, the two hug it out, but it is unclear if Moises knows the license plate number of the bus that just ran him over.

The Official Result
Jared Gordon def. Thiago Moises R1 3:37 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Angelo picks Thiago Moises after going back and forth. He acknowledges that Jared Gordon has been screwed on scorecards and could be on a win streak, but trusts Moises's training and activity. He notes that Moises is a slick grappler with technical striking and that Gordon is inactive and not on as good a team. Angelo says likely no bets for this fight.

Likely no bets for this fight.
"I'm going to stick with Thiago Moises. I trust the training. I trust the activity."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon, citing his volume and cardio. He notes Gordon's losses are to tough competition in close decisions, and he thinks Gordon's takedown defense and chin hold up. He expects a close competitive decision win for Gordon.

Gordon by decision
"I like Gordon here. ... I think he wins this fight and wins it by a pretty pretty close competitive decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

The host finds this a tough puzzle but leans with Gordon's pace and pressure. He notes Moises has looked good against certain opponents but doesn't do well against guys who set the pace, and Gordon is exactly that. He expects Gordon to grind out a high pace, possibly get a late finish, but mostly win on the scorecards, provided his durability holds up.

Gordon by decision (possible late finish)
"I have to lean with Gordon's pace and pressure. Moises has looked very good against certain opponents, but he doesn't do well against guys that can set the pace."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

The Guru picks Jared Gordon, citing a rule of thumb that beating Thiago Moises means you're good. He thinks Gordon has been robbed in recent decisions (Bobby Green, Nazareno Malegarie) and is better than his record. He acknowledges grappling concerns from the Grant Dawson loss but believes Gordon's fundamental grappling defense is strong. He predicts Gordon wins by decision.

"I'm going to go with Jared Gordon over Thiago Moises."
WIN vs Trey Ogden
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
LOSS vs Ľudovít Klein
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
WIN vs Mitch Ramirez
KO R3 0:15 · UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Mar 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Thiago Moises 1 25 of 39 64% 53 of 72 2 of 2 100% 1 0 6:36
Mitch Ramirez 0 16 of 48 33% 28 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Thiago Moises 0 4 of 6 66% 25 of 31 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:18
Mitch Ramirez 0 6 of 8 75% 17 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Thiago Moises 0 15 of 26 57% 22 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:14
Mitch Ramirez 0 10 of 39 25% 11 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
3 Thiago Moises 1 6 of 7 85% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Mitch Ramirez 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Thiago Moises 25 of 39 64% 10 of 23 3 of 4 12 of 12 17 of 30 2 of 2 6 of 7
Mitch Ramirez 16 of 48 33% 4 of 32 5 of 7 7 of 9 13 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Thiago Moises 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2
Mitch Ramirez 6 of 8 75% 0 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 5 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Thiago Moises 15 of 26 57% 8 of 18 2 of 3 5 of 5 13 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
Mitch Ramirez 10 of 39 25% 4 of 30 4 of 5 2 of 4 7 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Thiago Moises 6 of 7 85% 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 5
Mitch Ramirez 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
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Thiago Moises vs. Mitch Ramirez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Moises (-410), Ramirez (+320)

Round 1
Originally expecting to face Brad Riddell in the co-main event slot, Moises (17-7, 6-5 UFC) instead tumbles down to the early prelims to take on late replacement and UFC debutant Ramirez (8-1, 0-0 UFC), who lost in an appearance on last year’s Contender Series. The two lightweights will be joined in the Octagon by referee Mark Smith, who clocks them in as the fighters consider but abandon a glove touch. The two start rapping the other’s calf with kicks one after the other, testing the waters and doing some work early. They proceed to take turns with these kicks until Moises decides to mix things up with a tackling double-leg takedown. Moises succeeds in placing Ramirez on his seat, and Ramirez turns to his side in hopes of finding a sweep. Moises shuts it down and shifts to half guard, where he slowly opens up with elbow strikes. Ramirez bucks and twists, but the heavy Brazilian is not going anywhere as he proceeds to smother and land shots. Ramirez uses all his might to pop up, but Moises drags him down from behind until Ramirez realizes he should not give up his back and turns over again. Moises leans down to potentially set up an arm-triangle choke, but with half guard on the other side, he is unable to find the right leverage. Ramirez scoots himself to the wall, but Moises drags him away from it so he can hope to pass. Moises lets it go so he can slash down with elbows, and he gets bucked off but this is the best thing for him. Ramirez turns to crawl away on his knees, and like a predatory animal, Moises pounces on his back. Moises almost immediately gets the hooks in and secures a body triangle, and as Ramirez turns over to his back, Moises is already fishing for a rear-naked choke. Ramirez hand-fights well enough to prevent the choke from getting close, and Moises slides arms back and forth in search of the sub. Moises softens his man up with a couple strikes, and Ramirez tries to swing back from behind his head. The round ends in this dominant position, with the horn blaring twice.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises

Round 2
The lightweights come together in the middle of the cage, and Ramirez pushes the pace by leading off with a whipping overhand right. As Ramirez tries to shove the Brazilian against the wall, Moises turns him about. The two jockey for position while tied up, and Moises tangles up the legs for a trip attempt but does not find it. Moises drives a knee to the chest as he looks for another entry, with a double that fails. This allows Ramirez to break free, and Moises chops down on his lead leg as he gets backed off with punches. Moises reaches out with a front kick, and leans back as a head kick whizzes past his face. Ramirez swings as hard as he can with a right hand, and the veteran shoots in for a double and drives Ramirez back to the wall. The two do a little slow dance when up close in the clinch, and Moises breaks free with an elbow and misses with a front kick by a matter of inches. Ramirez punches his way forward into a clinch, and he is turned around and smacked in the face a few times. Moises lets go to reset, and he kicks the calf of his opponent that is welted and swollen badly. Ramirez kicks back, but Moises aims at the same target again to make Ramirez recoil. As he does this, he fires off a front kick and stings Ramirez with an overhand right. Moises chops low and spins with a wheel kick that buzzes the side of the head, and he calmly works his way forward, landing shots to chop away. Ramirez goes after two leg kicks of his own, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises

Round 3
Moises begins the round with a front kick, and
he knocks Ramirez off his feet with a vicious low kick. Ramirez hits the deck, and a ferocious Moises chases after him and whips four low kicks down reminiscent of Donald Cerrone against Myles Jury.
Ramirez grimaces in pain and Smith recognizes that he is done, and he waves off the fight. This is a statement performance for the Brazilian, who registers his first knockout as a UFC fighter by putting the newcomer away with leg kicks.

The Official Result
Thiago Moises def. Mitch Ramirez R3 0:15 via TKO (Leg Kicks)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Angelo expects Moises to be a big favorite. He is a slick grappler who stays composed and works for submissions, with technical striking and solid low kicks to set up takedowns. Although Moises was taken down five times and mauled by Benoit Saint-Denis, Angelo notes that Ramirez is not on that level. He thinks Moises will win the striking exchanges and is good enough to defend takedowns or sweep off bottom. He will bet if the line is favorable.

waiting for odds; will bet if line is favorable
"Moises is the pick and if we somehow get something that even resembles a favorable line I'm probably going to go ahead and jump on him here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Big Brady picks Thiago Moises to win by second-round submission. He views this as a levels fight, with Moises' BJJ and experience being far superior to Ramirez, who is coming in on short notice. He expects Moises to get a takedown and submit Ramirez.

by second round submission
"I'm going to take Thiago Moises to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Cody picks Thiago Moises, noting his experience against top competition and superior skills everywhere. He acknowledges Ramirez's danger as a short-notice debutant but believes Moises is better on the feet and on the ground. He warns about Moises' durability but expects him to win.

"Moises is a legitimate gatekeeper to the top 15... how does Mitch Ramirez pull this thing out of his hat?"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Thiago Moises

The host notes that Ramirez is stepping in on short notice and is less skilled and experienced than Moises. He expects Moises to have the technical striking advantage and eventually open up a club-and-sub opportunity to choke out Ramirez, getting back in the win column.

"I think that will eventually open up a club and sub opportunity to choke out Ramirez and get Moes back on The Winning Side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Paul agrees, stating Moises is better everywhere and has seen every trick Ramirez might have. He notes Ramirez's Contender Series loss and lack of high-level experience. He will not bet Ramirez.

"Moises seems like the rightful favorite here I will not be betting Mitch Ramirez."
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